特斯拉 (TSLA) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for your patience.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，感謝你們的耐心等待。

You've joined the Tesla Motors Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call.

您已加入特斯拉汽車公司 2017 年第三季度財務業績問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference may be recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議可能會被錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, VP of Investor Relations, Mr. Jeff Evanson.

我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Evanson 先生。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Latif, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，Latif，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's third quarter 2017 Q&A webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2017 年第三季度問答網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Deepak Ahuja and Jon McNeill.

今天加入我的有 Elon Musk、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja 和 Jon McNeill。

Our third quarter results were previously announced in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們之前在與本次網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新信中公佈了我們的第三季度業績。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before we jump in to the Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

在我們進入問答環節之前，埃隆有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

So, pardon me for 1 minute.

所以，請原諒我 1 分鐘。

I have a bit of a cold.

我有點感冒。

So let's see.

那麼讓我們看看。

Actually, we're doing this call from the Gigafactory because that's where the production constraint is for Model 3, from the most important thing for the company.

實際上，我們是從 Gigafactory 打這個電話的，因為那是 Model 3 的生產限制，對公司來說是最重要的事情。

And I always move my desk to wherever -- well, it's not like we have a desk, actually.

我總是把我的桌子搬到任何地方——嗯，實際上我們沒有桌子。

I move myself to wherever the biggest problem is in Tesla.

我把自己搬到特斯拉最大的問題所在的地方。

Somewhat, I really believe that one should lead from the front lines, and that's why I'm here, and I'll go into some of the Gigafactory issues later in the call, but I'd like to start off by acknowledging some, I think, pretty amazing milestones for Tesla.

某種程度上，我真的認為應該從前線領導，這就是我來這裡的原因，我將在電話會議的稍後部分討論 Gigafactory 的一些問題，但我想首先承認一些，我認為，對於特斯拉來說，這是一個非常了不起的里程碑。

One thing that I thought was really profound was that we surpassed cumulative deliveries of vehicles.

我認為非常深刻的一件事是我們超過了車輛的累計交付量。

We surpassed 0.25 million cumulative deliveries since the company's inception and had record Model S and X net orders and deliveries last quarter.

自公司成立以來，我們的累計交付量已超過 25 萬輛，上個季度的 Model S 和 X 淨訂單和交付量均創歷史新高。

So things are really, I think, going quite well.

所以事情真的，我認為，進展順利。

To put that into perspective, 5 years ago, we had only delivered 2,500 cars.

從這個角度來看，5 年前，我們只交付了 2,500 輛汽車。

So our -- the Tesla fleet has grown by a factor of 100 in 5 years.

因此，我們的特斯拉車隊在 5 年內增長了 100 倍。

I would expect, 5 years from now, to be at least an order of magnitude, we're beyond where we are right now and possibly even closer towards magnitude.

我預計，從現在起 5 年後，我們至少會達到一個數量級，我們已經超出了現在的水平，甚至可能更接近數量級。

But for the skeptics out there, I'd like to say -- ask them, which one of you predicted that Tesla would go from 2,500 units delivered to 250,000 units delivered now?

但是對於那些持懷疑態度的人，我想問他們，你們中的哪一個人預測特斯拉將從現在交付的 2,500 輛增加到 250,000 輛？

I suspect the answer is 0, right?

我懷疑答案是0，對吧？

So consider your assumptions for the future on whether they're valid or perhaps pessimistic.

因此，請考慮您對未來的假設是否有效或悲觀。

So for Model 3, we continue to make significant progress each week.

因此，對於 Model 3，我們每週都會繼續取得重大進展。

We see no primary problems with our supply chain or any of our production processes.

我們認為我們的供應鍊或任何生產流程都沒有主要問題。

Obviously, there are bottlenecks, there are thousands of processes in creating the Model 3, and we will move as fast as the slowest and least likely process among those thousands.

顯然，存在瓶頸，創建 Model 3 的過程有數千個，我們將在這數千個過程中以最慢和最不可能的過程的速度前進。

In fact, there's 10,000 unique parts.

事實上，有 10,000 個獨特的零件。

Or I could just say, of the tens of thousands of processes necessary to produce the car, we will move as fast as the least competent and least likely elements of that mixture.

或者我可以說，在生產汽車所需的數以萬計的過程中，我們將盡可能快地採取這種混合物中最不稱職和最不可能的元素。

So while the vast majority are going incredibly well, there are some problem areas, and after I give the business overview, I'll do a deep dive into the biggest problem area.

因此，儘管絕大多數都進展得非常好，但仍有一些問題領域，在我給出業務概述之後，我將深入探討最大的問題領域。

So based on where we -- what we know now, as we've gotten really into the details of some of the worst bottlenecks, we expect to achieve approximately 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late Q1 2018, so probably sometime in March.

因此，根據我們現在所知道的情況，因為我們已經深入了解了一些最嚴重的瓶頸的細節，我們預計到 2018 年第一季度末，每週將實現大約 5,000 輛 Model 3 車輛，所以可能在 3 月的某個時候。

This -- I think, in the vast scheme of things, this is a relatively small shift.

這——我認為，從整體來看，這是一個相對較小的轉變。

The Model 3 is a 10-year program, and so we're talking about a few months out of a 10-year program that's, in the grand scheme of things, as certainly if one is doing net present value calculations, this is immaterial.

Model 3 是一個為期 10 年的計劃，所以我們談論的是 10 年計劃中的幾個月，從宏觀上看，如果一個人在進行淨現值計算，這並不重要.

The -- and we have a clear path to that.

- 我們有一條明確的道路。

We understand the bottlenecks.

我們了解瓶頸。

It's difficult to fully understand these things as we actually try to do them.

當我們實際嘗試去做這些事情時，很難完全理解這些事情。

And it's worth noting that some of our manufacturing areas, we're actually seeing capabilities that are, we estimate, in the 6,000 to 7,000 unit per week capability, well in excess of the 5,000-unit capability.

值得注意的是，我們的一些製造領域實際上看到的能力是，我們估計每週生產 6,000 到 7,000 個單位的能力，遠遠超過 5,000 個單位的能力。

So -- and we're optimistic with further optimization that many of our production processes will need fairly little, and in some cases, no -- so I'm not saying no, but almost no CapEx to reach something close to 10,000 units per week.

所以——我們對進一步優化感到樂觀，因為我們的許多生產過程將需要相當少的，在某些情況下，不需要——所以我不是說不，但幾乎不需要資本支出來達到接近 10,000 個單位星期。

It's the amount or how much can be done by just beating up robots, shortening the path, intensifying factory, adding additional robots for choke points and just making lines go really, really fast.

這是通過毆打機器人、縮短路徑、強化工廠、為阻塞點添加額外的機器人以及讓生產線變得非常非常快可以完成的數量或數量。

Speed is the ultimate weapon.

速度是終極武器。

And our -- the design of Tesla Model 3 being that it was designed for manufacturability is turning up to be accurate.

而我們的——特斯拉 Model 3 的設計是為可製造性而設計的，而且它的設計是準確的。

It's far easier to build this car than a Model E -- than a Model S and vastly easier than a Model X.

製造這輛車比 E 型車要容易得多——比 S 型車要容易得多，比 X 型車要容易得多。

The primary production constraints really by far is in battery module assembly.

到目前為止，真正的主要生產限制是電池模塊組裝。

So this is -- so I'll just do a little bit of a deep dive on that.

所以這是 - 所以我將對此進行一些深入研究。

There are 4 zones to module manufacturing.

模塊製造有 4 個區域。

So it goes through 4 major production zones.

所以它經過4個主要生產區。

The zones 3 and 4 are in good shape; zones 1 and 2 are not.

3區和4區狀態良好； 1區和2區不是。

Zone 2 in particular, this is -- we had a subcontractor -- a systems integration subcontractor that unfortunately really dropped the ball, and we did not realize the degree to which the ball was dropped until quite recently, and we had to -- this is a very complex manufacturing area.

特別是第 2 區，這是 - 我們有一個分包商 - 一個系統集成分包商，不幸的是真的丟球了，直到最近我們才意識到丟球的程度，我們不得不 - 這個是一個非常複雜的製造領域。

We had to rewrite all of the software from scratch and redo many of the mechanical and electrical elements of zone 2 of module production.

我們不得不從頭開始重寫所有軟件，並重做模塊生產區 2 的許多機械和電氣元件。

We've managed to rewrite what was about 20 to 30 man years of software in 4 weeks, but there's still a long way to go.

我們已經設法在 4 週內重寫了大約 20 到 30 人年的軟件，但還有很長的路要走。

It's -- because the software work can be fast with the electromechanical elements that need to be fabricated and installed, and that -- getting these items in place and rebuilt is, unfortunately, a lot longer, and that's -- it's probably more external constraints than software.

這是 - 因為軟件可以通過需要製造和安裝的機電元件快速工作，而且 - 不幸的是，將這些項目安裝到位並重建要花費更長的時間，而且 - 這可能是更多的外部限制比軟件。

This is what I spent many a late night on the Gigafactory working on.

這就是我在 Gigafactory 上度過了很多個深夜的工作。

J.B. has been here constantly, and we've -- we allocated many of our best engineers to fundamentally fixing zone 2 of the module line and then most problem behind that it is zone 1.

J.B. 一直在這裡，我們已經 - 我們分配了許多最優秀的工程師來從根本上修復模塊線的 2 區，然後它背後的最大問題是 1 區。

On the plus side, we now have a very detailed understanding of what is necessary to fix zone 1 and zone 2. We also have a new design for zone 1 and 2 that is about 3x more effective than the current design.

從好的方面來說，我們現在對修復第 1 區和第 2 區的必要條件有了非常詳細的了解。我們還為第 1 區和第 2 區設計了一個新設計，其效率比當前設計高約 3 倍。

So when we put in -- and there are 3 lines of module production.

因此，當我們投入 - 並且有 3 條模塊生產線。

Lines 1, 2 and 3 are essentially identical.

第 1、2 和 3 行基本相同。

Line 4, which will have the new design, will be at triple the effectiveness of -- will be as good as the other 3 lines combined.

第 4 號線將採用新設計，其效率將是其他 3 條線的三倍之和。

So we're very confident about the future path of having incredibly efficient production of modules and that this will not be a constraint in the future, but unfortunately, it just takes some amount of time.

所以我們對未來高效生產模塊的道路充滿信心，並且這不會成為未來的限制，但不幸的是，這只是需要一些時間。

This is like moving like lightning compared to the -- while there's no one in the automotive industry, there's still some finer amount of time necessary to fix something that we thought was in good shape.

相比之下，這就像閃電一樣移動——雖然汽車行業沒有人，但仍然需要一些更短的時間來修復我們認為狀態良好的東西。

We were told by our supplier it was in good shape, but it was really not.

我們的供應商告訴我們它狀況良好，但實際上並非如此。

So this has now been typified Tesla’s internal automation group in the U.S. and -- Tesla automation in the U.S. and Tesla Grohmann from Germany.

因此，現在這已成為特斯拉在美國的內部自動化集團和——美國的特斯拉自動化和德國的特斯拉格羅曼的典型代表。

We have a large team on -- from the -- from Tesla Grohmann also working the issue and making very rapid progress.

我們有一個來自特斯拉格羅曼的龐大團隊，他們也在處理這個問題並取得了非常迅速的進展。

And like I said, I am personally on that line in that machine, trying to solve problems personally where I can.

就像我說的那樣，我親自在那台機器上的那條線上，盡我所能親自解決問題。

And J.B.'s basically spending his life at the Gigafactory.

J.B. 基本上是在 Gigafactory 度過他的一生。

So that's the sort of deep dive on that front.

所以這就是在這方面的深入研究。

The other thing I want to mention is that there are a lot of articles about Tesla firing employees and laying off some lines and stuff.

我想提的另一件事是，有很多關於特斯拉解僱員工和裁員的文章。

These are really ridiculous.

這些真的很荒謬。

And like anyone -- any journalist who'd written articles in this effect should be ashamed of themselves for lacking journalistic integrity.

和任何人一樣——任何寫過這種影響的文章的記者都應該為自己缺乏新聞誠信而感到羞恥。

At every company in the world, there's annual performance reviews.

世界上每家公司都有年度績效評估。

In our annual performance review, despite Tesla having an extremely high standard, and a standard far higher than other car companies, which we need to have in order to survive against much larger car companies, you can't be a little guy and have equal levels of skill as the big guy.

在我們的年度績效評估中，儘管特斯拉的標準非常高，並且遠遠高於其他汽車公司，我們需要擁有這個標準才能在更大的汽車公司中生存下來，但你不能像個小人物一樣擁有平等的作為大個子的技能水平。

If you have 2 boxes of equal votes and one's much smaller, the big guy's going to crush the little guy, obviously.

如果你有 2 個同等票數而一個小得多，那麼大個子顯然會壓垮小個子。

So little guy better have a heck of a lot more skill.

所以小傢伙最好有更多的技能。

And that is why both are just going to get hovered.

這就是為什麼兩者都會徘徊。

So that is why our standards are high.

這就是為什麼我們的標準很高。

They're not high because we believe in being mean to people.

他們並不高，因為我們相信對人刻薄。

They're high because if they're not high, we will die.

他們很高，因為如果他們不高，我們就會死。

Despite that, in our annual performance reviews, only 2% of people didn't make the grade.

儘管如此，在我們的年度績效評估中，只有 2% 的人沒有通過。

So that's about 700 people out of 33,000.

所以在 33,000 人中大約有 700 人。

This is a pretty low percentage.

這是一個相當低的百分比。

GE, I don't know if they still do, but they certainly have for a long time had a policy of firing 10% of their employees poor performers every year, no matter what.

GE，我不知道他們是否仍然這樣做，但他們肯定有很長時間的政策，每年解僱 10% 的表現不佳的員工，無論如何。

If you were to stack Tesla's performance, late releases compared to industry -- other companies, the number would be low.

如果你將特斯拉的表現、與行業相比的延遲發布——其他公司——這個數字會很低。

So the only reason these articles had any play whatsoever is because journalists and editors with low integrity, they'll provide any context for where they stood.

所以這些文章有任何作用的唯一原因是因為記者和編輯的誠信度很低，他們會為他們的立場提供任何背景。

Because the actual article would've read, "Tesla fires 2% of its employee base for performance-based reasons.

因為實際的文章會這樣寫：“特斯拉出於績效原因解雇了 2% 的員工。

They're remarkably lower number compared to other companies." But of course, that will be a meaningless article, so they forget to include that.

與其他公司相比，他們的數量要少得多。”當然，那將是一篇毫無意義的文章，所以他們忘記了包括在內。

Shame.

恥辱。

And then also, it was not reported that several thousand employees were promoted, and almost half of those promotions were in manufacturing.

而且，沒有報導說有幾千名員工被提拔了，而且幾乎一半的提拔是在製造業。

Right.

正確的。

I think let's go to questions.

我想讓我們去提問。

Okay, Latif, let's go to that question queue, please.

好的，Latif，讓我們進入問題隊列。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of James Albertine of Consumer Edge.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。

Great.

偉大的。

Wanted to ask with respect to -- and Elon, thank you for doing the deeper dive into the zones and the bottlenecks.

想問一下 - 和 Elon，感謝您對區域和瓶頸進行了更深入的研究。

How does this change the trajectory -- or does it change the trajectory from a margin perspective on the Model 3?

這將如何改變軌跡——或者它是否從 Model 3 的邊緣角度改變了軌跡？

And then maybe as an aside, can you tell us where you are today on a production-per-week basis and where you expect to be by the end of 2017, just so we can get an idea of the ramp?

順便說一句，你能告訴我們你今天的每週產量以及你預計到 2017 年底的位置，以便我們了解斜坡嗎？

I don't really like the week-by-week stuff.

我真的不喜歡周而復始的東西。

But the thing -- the reason it's tricky is because people just read too much into it.

但事情——它之所以棘手，是因為人們對它讀得太多了。

The ramp curve is a step exponential.

斜坡曲線是階躍指數。

So it means like as you alleviate a constraint, the production jumps -- suddenly jumps at a much higher number.

所以這意味著當你減輕一個約束時，產量會跳躍——突然以更高的數字跳躍。

And then so although it looks a little staggered, if you sort of zoom out, that production ramp is an exponential with giant week-over-week increases.

然後雖然看起來有點交錯，但如果你縮小一點，產量增長是指數級的，每週都有巨大的增長。

I'd like to state a number at the end of Q4, but there's too much uncertainty right now to give that with any precision.

我想在第四季度末說明一個數字，但現在不確定性太多，無法準確給出。

Now I do feel confident about the end of Q1, maybe sooner, but really, it's like -- we're like in a vertical climb here.

現在我確實對第一季度的結束充滿信心，也許會更快，但實際上，這就像 - 我們就像在這裡垂直攀登一樣。

So it's really hard to say it.

所以真的很難說。

Yes.

是的。

And also to your earlier point -- Deepak here.

還有你之前的觀點——這裡是迪帕克。

It does not change any of our projections in terms of the long-term target gross margin.

它不會改變我們對長期目標毛利率的任何預測。

These are all short-term issues.

這些都是短期問題。

Right.

正確的。

I mean, it's -- just let me state, by the end of the year, it will be in the thousands.

我的意思是，它是——讓我聲明，到今年年底，它將達到數千個。

It's well at the end.

最後還好。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I'm sorry, well into the thousands per week or by...

我很抱歉，每週或通過...

In the thousands by the end of the year.

到年底達到數千。

But where exactly, it's hard to say.

但具體在哪裡，很難說。

And this way, if you move the calendar by like 2 or 3 weeks, you will see giant changes.

這樣，如果您將日曆移動 2 或 3 週，您將看到巨大的變化。

So it's like the quarter-to-date will fall somewhat sort of arbitrarily in that exponential curve.

因此，就像本季度迄今為止的指數曲線會在某種程度上任意下降。

So even a matter of a few weeks would show a very different number.

因此，即使是幾週的時間，也會顯示出非常不同的數字。

As far as like people tend to extrapolate on a linear basis instead of an exponential.

就類似的情況而言，人們傾向於在線性基礎上而非指數基礎上進行推斷。

First of all, you all know what an exponential is.

首先，你們都知道指數是什麼。

So if your intuition is -- tends to be a straight-line extrapolation but really on a very steep exponential.

因此，如果您的直覺是 - 往往是直線外推，但實際上是非常陡峭的指數。

So it's really an S-curve.

所以它實際上是一個 S 曲線。

So it starts off really slow, and then it ramps very rapidly on an exponential basis.

所以它開始時非常緩慢，然後以指數方式快速增長。

And this starts to go sort of linear right in the middle and then it sort of asymptotes off at the target production capacity.

這開始在中間呈線性變化，然後逐漸接近目標生產能力。

You really target a whole supply chain or a factory for a given production capacity.

對於給定的生產能力，您確實針對整個供應鍊或工廠。

And yes, probably get this done as soon as possible.

是的，可能會盡快完成這項工作。

We're also -- we're highly confident of the long-term margin number of 25% or higher for Model 3. Deepak, I mean...

我們也 - 我們對 Model 3 的 25% 或更高的長期利潤率非常有信心。Deepak，我的意思是......

Yes, none of our projections in terms of our material cost or manufacturing, labor and overhead or depreciation of the other elements have changed as a result of these last few months to modify that target.

是的，由於過去幾個月修改該目標，我們對材料成本或製造、勞動力和間接費用或其他要素折舊的預測都沒有改變。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Just one question and one follow-up.

只有一個問題和一個跟進。

Elon, you described Model 3 -- the Model 3 launch as production hell.

Elon，您將 Model 3 描述為生產地獄。

How -- I mean, you have a cold, but how hot is it in hell right now?

怎麼——我的意思是，你感冒了，但現在地獄有多熱？

And is it getting hotter or less hot?

它是變熱還是變熱？

I mean, are we solving worse problems that are coming up?

我的意思是，我們是否正在解決即將出現的更糟糕的問題？

Yes, I mean, it's sort of imprecise.

是的，我的意思是，它有點不精確。

I'm just shooting at what this level means really, but let's say level 9 is the worst, okay?

我只是在這個級別的真正含義上進行拍攝，但假設級別 9 是最差的，好嗎？

We were in level 9. We're now in level 8, and I think we're close to exiting level 8. I thought we'd be probably more like in level 7 by now, but it's -- and I have to tell you, I was really depressed about 3 or 4 weeks ago when I realized that we were kind of in level 9. Then we got to level 8. Now I can see sort of a clear path to sunshine.

我們在第 9 級。我們現在在第 8 級，我認為我們接近退出第 8 級。我認為我們現在可能更像在第 7 級，但它是 - 我必須告訴你，大約 3 或 4 週前，當我意識到我們處於 9 級時，我真的很沮喪。然後我們到了 8 級。現在我可以看到一條通往陽光的清晰道路。

And so I feel really pretty optimistic right now.

所以我現在感覺非常樂觀。

If you talked to me 3 to 2 weeks ago, I'd be -- I would've been quite pessimistic, and I was for sort of quite down the dumps.

如果你在 3 到 2 週前與我交談，我會——我會非常悲觀，而且我有點絕望。

But now it's very obvious what we need to do.

但是現在很明顯我們需要做什麼。

It's just a matter of work to get there.

到達那裡只是一個工作問題。

We're working 7 days a week to do it.

我們每週工作 7 天來完成這項工作。

And I've personally been here on zone 2 module line at 2 a.m.

我個人在凌晨 2 點來到 2 區模塊線上。

on a Sunday morning, helping diagnose robot calibration issues.

週日早上，幫助診斷機器人校準問題。

So I'm doing everything I can.

所以我正在盡我所能。

J.B. is doing everything he can.

J.B. 正在盡其所能。

The whole team's on it, we're on it.

整個團隊都在努力，我們也在努力。

And we are on it, we've got it covered, it's going to take us a few much longer than we expected.

我們正在努力，我們已經把它覆蓋了，這將花費我們比我們預期的更長的時間。

Got it.

知道了。

Just one follow-up for Deepak.

只是迪帕克的一項後續行動。

The -- on the secured bonds due 2025, the issuance from last August, was this meant to be a permanent part of the cap structure?

- 關於 2025 年到期的擔保債券，從去年 8 月開始發行，這是否意味著成為上限結構的永久部分？

Or is it more of a bridge loan to help fund some of the near-term cash absorption issues related to the Model 3 delay and things of that nature?

或者它更像是一種過渡性貸款，以幫助解決與 Model 3 延遲相關的一些近期現金吸收問題以及類似性質的事情？

It is.

這是。

It's an 8-year tenure on that debt offering and meant to give us that capital for that time frame.

該債務發行的期限為 8 年，旨在為我們提供該時間範圍內的資金。

The next question comes from Tyler Frank of Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德的泰勒弗蘭克。

It's been Ben Kallo for Baird.

Baird 一直是 Ben Kallo。

Elon, you guys talk a lot about the 3 being easier to manufacture than the S and the X. Could you just give us a sense, though, about the difference of manufacturing the volume of the 3 compared to -- you -- basically 10x the volume that you're trying to get to in the near term?

Elon，你們談論了很多關於 3 比 S 和 X 更容易製造的話題。不過，你能否給我們一個感覺，關於製造 3 的體積與——你——基本上是 10 倍的差異您近期想要達到的交易量？

Then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個跟進。

Yes.

是的。

There's vastly more automation with Model 3. Now the tricky thing is that when one front of this -- of that automation doesn't work, it's way harder to make up for it with manual labor.

Model 3 的自動化程度要高得多。現在棘手的問題是，當自動化的一個方面不起作用時，用手工勞動來彌補它要困難得多。

So with S or X, because a lot less of it was automated, you -- we could scale up labor hours and achieve a high level of production.

因此，對於 S 或 X，由於自動化程度要低得多，您——我們可以擴大工時並實現高水平的生產。

With Model 3, it's like -- tends to be either the machine works or it doesn't or it's lumping along and we get short quite severely on output.

對於 Model 3，它就像 - 往往是機器要么工作要么不工作，或者它一直在混為一談，我們的輸出嚴重短缺。

So yes.

所以是的。

I mean, J.B., do you want to add?

我的意思是，J.B.，您要添加嗎？

Yes, I think that's spot on.

是的，我認為這是正確的。

Because the design on a whole is much easier to build...

因為整體上的設計更容易構建......

Yes.

是的。

By a lot.

很多。

But the -- it's also intensely automated, which is part of what lets us realize the margin in the cost targets.

但是 - 它也是高度自動化的，這是讓我們實現成本目標利潤的一部分。

But that does become difficult to bring that automation online.

但這確實變得難以實現自動化。

That's really -- that's where we are.

那是真的 - 這就是我們所在的地方。

And Doug is on the line.

道格上線了。

Perhaps he can add some on ease of manufacturability.

也許他可以添加一些易於製造的內容。

Doug, do you want to maybe cite a few examples?

道格，你想舉幾個例子嗎？

Sure.

當然。

The number of actual, what we call a pitch, which is a station for a robot to work on the car in general assembly, is about 1/4 of the typical industry average for number of stations it uses to build a car.

實際的數量，我們所說的間距，是機器人在汽車上進行總裝的工作站，大約是它用於製造汽車的典型行業平均水平的 1/4。

So the way we do subassemblies and the care we've taken and designed for manufacturing does make it much simpler.

因此，我們進行子組件的方式以及我們為製造所採取和設計的謹慎確實使它變得更加簡單。

But as J.B. said, each of those stations is fairly automated and requires time and engineering to make it work.

但正如 J.B. 所說，這些站點中的每一個都相當自動化，需要時間和工程才能使其工作。

And I guess, my follow-up's on that point.

我想，我的後續行動就是在這一點上。

So in the battery assembly and automation, things that you're working through, and the software for configuring the robots is how I'm thinking of this, is it a certain number of man-hours that have to go into this and then it's fixed?

所以在電池組裝和自動化方面，你正在處理的事情，以及用於配置機器人的軟件是我的想法，是否需要一定數量的工時，然後它是固定的？

Or like you know the fix?

或者就像你知道修復？

Or what are you throwing at it right now?

或者你現在在扔什麼？

Is it people or is it time required to do or all of the above?

是人還是需要時間來做或以上所有？

Yes.

是的。

We're throwing a sheer amount of people at replacing machines.

我們正在投入大量人員來更換機器。

And then occasionally, there's like some part of a production manufacturing process where the machine is probably kind of like broken, and then we have to kind of bypass to a manual operation.

然後偶爾，在生產製造過程的某些部分，機器可能有點像壞了，然後我們不得不繞過手動操作。

Until we fix the automation.

直到我們修復自動化。

Yes, until we fix the automation.

是的，直到我們修復自動化。

But that's really -- it's really inefficient because this thing is really not designed for a manual bypass to your broken machine or a machine when the software is not right or whatever the case may be.

但這真的是——它的效率真的很低，因為這個東西真的不是為手動繞過損壞的機器或軟件不正確或任何情況下的機器而設計的。

It's just an extremely complicated machine with the combined electrical, mechanical and software challenges.

它只是一台極其複雜的機器，同時具有電氣、機械和軟件方面的挑戰。

It's not that different than what we do bringing up a brand-new car and a lot of the...

這與我們推出一輛全新的汽車和很多...

Yes.

是的。

It is harder to supplement with manuals than S or X because the system is designed as a very tightly integrated automated system.

它比 S 或 X 更難補充手冊，因為該系統被設計為一個非常緊密集成的自動化系統。

So if there's an [X brand] -- we will be to try to supplement or make up for a machine not working with manual activity.

因此，如果有 [X 品牌]——我們將嘗試補充或彌補無法手動操作的機器。

So we think of it like -- it's like if you had a spreadsheet and a couple of cells in the spreadsheet were manually calculated, well, yes, you could still do your spreadsheet stuff but it's going to be a lot slower until the last cell is automated, and then it's going to be super fast.

所以我們認為它就像 - 就像你有一個電子表格並且電子表格中的幾個單元格是手動計算的，嗯，是的，你仍然可以做你的電子表格的東西，但是直到最後一個單元格會慢很多是自動化的，然後它會非常快。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah of Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

Great.

偉大的。

Congratulations on the milestone.

祝賀里程碑。

The competitiveness of Autopilot is something that's come up a lot recently, and I just wanted to ask about your hardware capability.

Autopilot的競爭力是最近提的很多，我就是想問問你們的硬件能力。

We're actually at a technology conference today hosted by NVIDIA.

實際上，我們今天正在參加由 NVIDIA 主辦的技術會議。

And their newest autonomous solution, according to NVIDIA, is 10x more powerful than the version that Tesla's using, and they're saying it can get you to level 5 autonomy.

根據 NVIDIA 的說法，他們最新的自動駕駛解決方案比特斯拉使用的版本強大 10 倍，他們說它可以讓你達到 5 級自動駕駛。

And so along those lines, the year-over-year improvement in the NVIDIA board just seems really significant.

因此，按照這些思路，NVIDIA 主板的逐年改進似乎非常顯著。

And I was curious, Elon, if you could just talk about what you think you need to do from a hardware perspective to advance Autopilot.

我很好奇，埃隆，如果你能從硬件的角度談談你認為你需要做什麼來推進 Autopilot。

Well, first of all, I think that we'll be able to achieve full autonomy with the current hardware.

嗯，首先，我認為我們將能夠使用當前的硬件實現完全自主。

The question is not just full autonomy, but full autonomy with what level of reliability and what will be acceptable to regulators.

問題不僅是完全自治，而且是完全自治，具有何種程度的可靠性以及監管機構可以接受的程度。

But I feel quite confident that we can achieve human-level -- approximately human-level autonomy with the current computing hardware.

但我非常有信心，我們可以使用當前的計算硬件實現人類水平——接近人類水平的自主性。

Now regulators may require some significant margin above human capability in order for a full autonomy to be engaged.

現在，監管機構可能需要超出人類能力的一些顯著餘量，才能實現完全的自主權。

I mean to say it needs to be 50% safer, 100% safer, 1,000% safer, I don't know.

我的意思是說它需要安全 50%、100%、1000%，我不知道。

I'm not sure they know either.

我也不確定他們是否知道。

But that's -- but I think I'm confident that when we can get to approximately human level with our current hardware.

但那是 - 但我認為我有信心當我們能夠使用我們當前的硬件達到接近人類的水平時。

And yes, we'll have more to say on the hardware front soon, we're just not yet ready to say anything now.

是的，我們很快就會在硬件方面有更多話要說，我們現在還沒有準備好說什麼。

But I feel very optimistic on that front.

但我在這方面感到非常樂觀。

For customers that have signed up for full subject riding capability, we'll push that option.

對於已註冊完整主題騎行能力的客戶，我們將推動該選項。

The -- if it does turn out that a computer upgrade is necessary in order to meet the regulatory requirements in that area, we will replace their computer with something with greater power, which is sort of unplug the other one, plug a new one in.

- 如果確實需要升級計算機以滿足該領域的監管要求，我們將用功率更大的東西替換他們的計算機，這有點像拔掉另一台，插入一個新的.

But we feel confident of the competitiveness of our hardware strategy.

但我們對我們硬件戰略的競爭力充滿信心。

I would say that we are certain that our hardware strategy is better than any other option by a lot.

我想說的是，我們確信我們的硬件策略比任何其他選擇都要好很多。

Okay.

好的。

And then if I could ask, you said that the deposit balance for Model 3 strengthened.

然後如果我可以問，你說 Model 3 的存款餘額增加了。

Can you give us what that actual balance was?

你能告訴我們實際餘額是多少嗎？

We don't give specific balance of deposits by car line.

我們不按汽車線路給出具體的存款餘額。

We just give the combined number, which you can see on our balance sheet for the customer deposits.

我們只給出合併的數字，您可以在我們的資產負債表上看到客戶存款。

Our next question comes from John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的約翰·墨菲。

Just a question on quarterly cash flow for the fourth quarter and the first quarter.

只是關於第四季度和第一季度的季度現金流的問題。

I mean, it sounds like, obviously, there's some delays here on the Model 3, which is understandable, given the complexity.

我的意思是，聽起來很明顯，Model 3 有一些延遲，考慮到復雜性，這是可以理解的。

I'm just curious, as we think about cash flow for the next 2 quarters, would we think about them relatively similarly to what we just saw in the third quarter plus what you would -- whatever you would sell out of inventory so it might be a bit better?

我只是好奇，當我們考慮未來兩個季度的現金流時，我們是否會考慮它們與我們剛剛在第三季度看到的情況相對相似，再加上你會怎麼想——無論你會賣掉庫存，所以它可能好一點？

I'm just trying to understand, Deepak, how much of that $2.5 billion in the inventory is finished goods that you might be able to sell out of in the fourth quarter.

迪帕克，我只是想了解，在這 25 億美元的庫存中，有多少是你可以在第四季度售出的成品。

Well, firstly, as we continue to ramp up Model 3, our cash flow of operations is going to increase or improve significantly over the next few quarters.

首先，隨著我們繼續推出 Model 3，我們的運營現金流將在未來幾個季度顯著增加或改善。

And it's -- this is the positive virtuous cycle of cash flow of working capital that Model 3 provides us, because we effectively pay our suppliers later when we collect from our customers.

這就是 Model 3 為我們提供的營運資金現金流的良性良性循環，因為當我們從客戶那裡收款時，我們有效地向供應商付款。

And also, this quarter, our CapEx payments will start to decline as we pay off, over the next couple of quarters, all the remaining Model 3-related CapEx.

此外，本季度，我們的資本支出將開始下降，因為我們在接下來的幾個季度中還清了所有剩餘的與 Model 3 相關的資本支出。

So there should be an improving trend over the next 2, 3 quarters.

因此，在接下來的 2、3 個季度應該會有改善的趨勢。

But to be fair, Deepak, I mean, it sounds like this is a little bit more uncertain than you thought before as far as production and delivery.

但公平地說，Deepak，我的意思是，就生產和交付而言，這聽起來比你以前想像的要不確定。

So I'm just trying to understand what kind of cash you can generate out of the inventory that you think you hold right now.

所以我只是想了解你可以從你認為你現在持有的庫存中產生什麼樣的現金。

Yes.

是的。

So firstly, our inventory is going to come down on S and X, and also, what's important is it is -- given these short-term delays, we have to be prudent in how we spend our money.

因此，首先，我們的 S 和 X 庫存將下降，而且，重要的是 - 鑑於這些短期延遲，我們必須謹慎花錢。

And so we are managing our CapEx and OpEx growth to be in line with the growth of our fleet.

因此，我們正在管理我們的資本支出和運營支出增長，以與我們機隊的增長保持一致。

And so for example, CapEx related to our stores or service centers or Superchargers, we are slowing that down to be in line, and that's logical.

例如，與我們的商店或服務中心或增壓器相關的資本支出，我們正在放慢速度以保持一致，這是合乎邏輯的。

We've got growth for our fleet.

我們的船隊有了增長。

So all those actions will come through in terms of helping us conserve cash.

因此，所有這些行動都將幫助我們節省現金。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Great.

偉大的。

Just with regard to the ramp-up of the Model 3 production, I can see what's happening with the 5,000 per week target from 1Q to 4Q -- or from, now, it's 1Q versus 4Q.

僅就 Model 3 產量的增加而言，我可以看到從第一季度到第四季度每週 5,000 輛的目標發生了什麼——或者從現在開始，它是第一季度與第四季度的對比。

But I think it's less clear from reading the letter, what's happening with the previous guidance of the 10,000 units per week at some point in 2018?

但我認為閱讀這封信不太清楚，2018 年某個時候每週 10,000 個單位的先前指導發生了什麼？

Is that now like beyond 2018?

現在是否像 2018 年以後那樣？

I think, before, investors were estimating that if you could hit it at the end of '18, you'd do over 250,000 vehicles.

我認為，之前，投資者估計如果你能在 18 年底達到它，你會做超過 250,000 輛汽車。

If you could hit it more towards the middle, you'd do over 325,000.

如果你能把它更多地打到中間，你會做超過 325,000。

But what now would be a reasonable expectation based upon what you know for the Model 3s that do get built in 2018?

但是，根據您對 2018 年生產的 Model 3 的了解，現在的合理預期是什麼？

So it's a bit too early to make the exact number.

所以現在給出確切的數字還為時過早。

But I think, if you extrapolate from 5,000 units towards the end of Q1, we do want to hold off on giving CapEx until we are confident about cash flow on Model 3. So then that's a question of how long it takes to implement everything necessary to get to 10,000 units a week for Model 3, which is a number we are confident can be sustained from a [grand] standpoint.

但我認為，如果您從第一季度末的 5,000 個單位推斷，我們確實希望推遲提供資本支出，直到我們對模型 3 的現金流充滿信心。所以這是一個需要多長時間才能實施一切必要的問題將 Model 3 的每週產量提高到 10,000 輛，從 [大] 的角度來看，我們有信心能夠維持這個數字。

And we want to figure out how much we can push the 5,000 up from the existing equation.

我們想弄清楚我們可以從現有的等式中將 5,000 推高多少。

Yes, that is true.

是的，這是真的。

And then learn from those and figure out, how do we redesign what will we do for the next step and spend more efficiently our CapEx?

然後從中學習並弄清楚，我們如何重新設計下一步我們將做什麼，並更有效地使用我們的資本支出？

So it's the right thing to do.

所以這是正確的做法。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

As I mentioned earlier, we're finding that some parts of the line, they very clearly are capable of 6,000 or that 7,000 units a week, and maybe more than that, just by shortening path length, speeding up robots, adding some robots where there are -- where the choke points exist, simplifying some of the processes and a few minor part redesigns sum up for how much you can improve cycle time.

正如我之前提到的，我們發現生產線的某些部分，很明顯他們每週能夠生產 6,000 或 7,000 個單位，而且可能不止於此，只是通過縮短路徑長度、加速機器人、添加一些機器人有 - 存在阻塞點，簡化一些流程和一些小部分的重新設計總結了您可以在多大程度上改善週期時間。

So yes.

所以是的。

Okay.

好的。

Actually, that's helpful.

實際上，這很有幫助。

Maybe just as a follow-up -- go ahead...

也許只是作為後續行動——繼續……

And -- no, go ahead.

而且——不，繼續。

Oh, I was just going to say, is the gross margin discussion also related to this at all?

哦，我只是想說，毛利率的討論也和這個有關嗎？

I mean, I see the reduced outlook for 4Q, but do you feel any differently about, for example, the ability to do 25% margin when you're doing kind of 250,000 run rate?

我的意思是，我看到第 4 季度的前景有所下降，但您對例如當您以 250,000 次運行率實現 25% 利潤率的能力有什麼不同的看法嗎？

And as long as the production is going to be restrained, do you have any ability to continue to preference for longer maybe the higher-margin, higher trim level variance of the Model 3 to help with that?

只要產量受到限制，您是否有能力繼續偏好更長的時間，也許是 Model 3 的更高利潤、更高的裝飾水平差異來幫助解決這個問題？

We can fine-tune those things when we get there, but overall, our -- and I'm reinforcing this again, these are all short-term issues, and it doesn't change our long-term prognosis on Model 3 gross margin.

當我們到達那裡時，我們可以微調這些東西，但總的來說，我們的 - 我再次強調這一點，這些都是短期問題，它不會改變我們對 Model 3 毛利率的長期預測.

Our next question comes from Alex Potter of Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Alex Potter。

Yes, was wondering, I guess, to the extent that these production bottlenecks are ultimately somebody else's fault, is it worth your time trying to call back some of the cost that you're presumably incurring due to the subcontractor, I guess, dropping the ball, as you put it?

是的，我想知道，在某種程度上，這些生產瓶頸最終是別人的錯，是否值得你花時間試圖收回你可能因分包商而產生的一些成本，我猜，放棄球，正如你所說的那樣？

Yes.

是的。

I think first of all, I think, at the end of the day, everything is our fault and my problem, most of all.

我認為首先，我認為，歸根結底，一切都是我們的錯，也是我的問題，最重要的是。

If we picked the wrong subcontractor, we're the fault.

如果我們選擇了錯誤的分包商，那就是我們的錯。

So just -- I don't want us to be -- sort of us externalizing responsibility.

所以只是 - 我不希望我們成為 - 我們將責任外化。

Really, it's our fault for picking the wrong supplier and then not realizing it until way later in the game.

真的，選擇錯誤的供應商然後直到遊戲後期才意識到是我們的錯。

We will be able to call back some amounts, but it certainly will not make up for the lost revenue, the lost free cash flow.

我們將能夠收回一些金額，但它肯定無法彌補損失的收入，損失的自由現金流。

So some amount, yes, but it's not going to matter that much.

所以一些數量，是的，但這並不重要。

The goal is right now to fix the problem.

現在的目標是解決問題。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，夠公平的。

I guess, one other issue, you referenced a gross margin headwind on the S and X due to trim and mix.

我想，另一個問題，你提到了 S 和 X 的毛利率逆風，因為修剪和混合。

Was wondering if you could talk maybe a little bit more explicitly about what that was, and then what the corrective measures you're taking to address that.

想知道你是否可以更明確地談談那是什麼，然後你正在採取什麼糾正措施來解決這個問題。

Yes.

是的。

Jon you want to answer?

喬恩你想回答嗎？

Yes, it's Jon.

是的，是喬恩。

I can address a piece of this.

我可以解決其中的一部分。

So a large chunk of it was discontinued trims.

因此，其中很大一部分已停產。

We've introduced the 100-kilowatt battery pack, which has a 335-mile range in Model S. And as a result of that, we discontinued the 90-kilowatt pack.

我們推出了 100 千瓦電池組，它在 Model S 中的續航里程為 335 英里。因此，我們停止了 90 千瓦電池組。

And as those cars were in inventory, we reduced price to move them out.

由於這些汽車在庫存中，我們降低了價格將它們移出。

And so that was a piece of the gross margin headwind that won't repeat in -- as we go forward.

所以這是毛利率逆風的一部分，不會重複 - 隨著我們前進。

And in addition to that, the mix did shift.

除此之外，組合確實發生了變化。

We sold more 100-kilowatt cars actually than we predicted we would, but order rate went up for the 75s even faster.

實際上，我們售出的 100 千瓦汽車比我們預期的要多，但 75 年代的訂單率上升得更快。

And so we sold more 75-kilowatt cars in the mix than we'd predicted, and that had a gross margin impact as well.

因此，我們銷售的 75 千瓦汽車比我們預期的要多，這也對毛利率產生了影響。

Given demand is in -- it continues to increase for the 100-kilowatt pack and the mix shift is occurring more towards that product, we'll see, as we indicated in the letter, increasing margins as we roll into Q4 and then into Q1.

鑑於需求不斷增長，100 千瓦電池組的需求繼續增加，並且產品組合的轉變更多地發生在該產品上，正如我們在信中指出的那樣，隨著我們進入第四季度，然後進入第一季度，我們將看到利潤率增加.

So this is -- the heart of the discontinuation really was the success of us debottlenecking the 100-kilowatt production that we've talked about in Q2 and really rolling out into strong demand in Q3.

所以這是 - 停產的核心實際上是我們成功地消除了我們在第二季度談到的 100 千瓦生產的瓶頸，並在第三季度真正推出了強勁的需求。

Yes.

是的。

We also just increased the amount of value that's in a Model S...

我們還增加了 Model S 的價值量……

And the X.

和 X。

And X, but particularly Model S, because we're hoping it to be greater differentiation between the S and the Model 3. So the basic cost, the fundamental cost of a Model S increased because of more included content.

還有 X，尤其是 Model S，因為我們希望它在 S 和 Model 3 之間有更大的區別。所以基本成本，Model S 的基本成本增加了，因為包含的內容更多。

So the full Model Ss have air suspension, for example, perhaps a bunch of premium contents were included by default.

因此，完整的 Model Ss 具有空氣懸架，例如，默認情況下可能包含一堆優質內容。

Just about there needs to be a get clear reason for people to buy a Model S over a Model 3.

幾乎需要有一個明確的理由讓人們購買 Model S 而不是 Model 3。

And the market responded really strongly to that in terms of demand.

就需求而言，市場對此反應非常強烈。

So in Q3, the Model S in the U.S. outsold the Mercedes S-Class by 2x -- over 2x, actually.

因此，在第三季度，美國 Model S 的銷量超過了梅賽德斯 S-Class 的 2 倍——實際上超過了 2 倍。

And if you added up the sales of Audi A7 and A8, the BMW 7 Series and the Porsche Panamera, we outsold all those combined.

如果將奧迪 A7 和 A8、寶馬 7 系和保時捷 Panamera 的銷量加起來，我們的銷量就超過了所有這些產品的總和。

So the market really did respond to the increased value.

所以市場確實對增加的價值做出了反應。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And all of our deliveries in terms of our market share in the U.S., it went up in Q3 for S and X. Especially...

就我們在美國的市場份額而言，我們所有的交付量在第三季度對 S 和 X 都有所增加。尤其是……

S and X, both.

S 和 X，兩者都有。

In the recent market, yes compared to Q2.

在最近的市場中，與第二季度相比，是的。

Yes.

是的。

And I suppose some of the articles from our quarterly earnings letter about sort of answer your question kind of S and X -- why we reduced production on S and X. We didn't reduce it very much.

我想我們的季度收益信中的一些文章可以回答你關於 S 和 X 的問題——為什麼我們減少了 S 和 X 的產量。我們並沒有減少太多。

It's just sort of perhaps from about 2,000 units a week to 1,800, and we did in order to bring down inventory.

大概是從每周大約 2,000 台到 1,800 台，我們這樣做是為了降低庫存。

So mainly just because inventory was too high.

所以主要是因為庫存太高。

We also just needed a bunch of people on the Model 3 line.

我們還需要一群人參與 Model 3 生產線。

So we thought we'll take the third shift from Model S and the X and apply it to Model 3. Because really, running out of labor pool, honestly.

所以我們認為我們將從 Model S 和 X 進行第三次轉變，並將其應用於 Model 3。因為真的，勞動力資源已經用完了，老實說。

It's like we're second labor pool dry, both in -- in one of the Gigafactory and in Fremont.

這就像我們是第二個乾涸的勞動力池，無論是在 - 在 Gigafactory 和弗里蒙特之一。

And so it's like -- yes, there's just only so many people that can make it to the factory.

所以它就像 - 是的，只有這麼多人可以進入工廠。

And then we're out finding that we're able to improve the efficiency of the production of the S and X. So previously, it required 3 shifts to do 2,000 units a week.

然後我們發現我們能夠提高 S 和 X 的生產效率。所以以前，每週生產 2,000 個單位需要 3 個班次。

And it's important to appreciate, like the whole supply chain and everything is all -- it's all sized to 2,000 units a week.

重要的是要欣賞，就像整個供應鏈一樣，一切都是如此——它的規模都達到了每週 2,000 件。

Sure, like why can't you just spontaneously make 2,500 units a week?

當然，就像你為什麼不能自發地每週生產 2,500 件？

Well, it's because the entire supply chain, all the parts, everything's got to go to 2,500, and that requires a bunch of CapEx.

嗯，這是因為整個供應鏈，所有零件，所有東西都必須達到 2,500，這需要大量的資本支出。

Then you got to match sort of -- the increase stores.

然後你必須匹配——增加商店。

Like everything's got to sort of work in cadence.

就像一切都必須有節奏地工作一樣。

So we sort of like decided on what seems like the right number.

所以我們有點像決定了正確的數字。

We think sort of the right number's about 100,000 units a year, combined S and X, and resize the supply chain accordingly.

我們認為正確的數字是每年大約 100,000 台，結合 S 和 X，並相應地調整供應鏈的規模。

But we expect to continue making production efficiency improvements on the S and X line and be able to take that from -- you're up at 1,800 units a week to 2,000 units a week in probably over the next year and still be on 2 shifts, which means that our labor hours are reducing per vehicle, and that gets us to our sort of roughly 100,000 unit a year cadence and we can work on supply chain efficiencies and the like.

但我們預計將繼續提高 S 和 X 生產線的生產效率，並能夠從中受益——您可能在明年從每週 1,800 台增加到每週 2,000 台，並且仍然採用 2 班制，這意味著我們每輛車的工時正在減少，這使我們達到每年大約 100,000 輛的節奏，我們可以致力於供應鏈效率等。

But we do expect to make an important point.

但我們確實希望提出一個重要的觀點。

We expect to sell more cars in Q4...

我們預計第四季度將銷售更多汽車……

Correct.

正確的。

Than we did in Q3.

比我們在第三季度所做的。

Than in Q3.

比第三季度。

So we expect sales and deliveries to be higher in Q4 than Q3 but have to reduce Model S and X inventory to achieve that.

因此，我們預計第四季度的銷售和交付量將高於第三季度，但必須減少 Model S 和 X 庫存才能實現這一目標。

Next question comes from Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

Just had a question about how we should be thinking about capital spending maybe at a high level next year.

剛剛提出了一個問題，即我們應該如何考慮明年的高水平資本支出。

It sounds like you're going to be deploying some capital to increase to 10,000 units per week.

聽起來您將要部署一些資金來增加每週 10,000 個單位。

And obviously, there've also been some reports about you investing in another assembly facility in China.

顯然，還有一些關於您在中國投資另一家裝配廠的報導。

So is your CapEx still expected to be lower in 2018 versus 2017?

那麼，與 2017 年相比，2018 年的資本支出是否仍會更低？

So Rod, in terms of the China factory, I'll leave for Elon to make comments on that.

所以 Rod，關於中國工廠，我會留給 Elon 對此發表評論。

But I think maybe better if we hold on, broadly speaking, to that question to the next quarter when we provide full 2018 guidance and give you better clarity on our capital spend for the different elements in our plan.

但我認為，從廣義上講，如果我們在下個季度提供完整的 2018 年指導並讓您更清楚地了解我們計劃中不同要素的資本支出時，可能會更好。

I suspect it's comparable and similar to 2017.

我懷疑它與 2017 年具有可比性和相似性。

We have some -- obviously some -- it's somewhat of a strategic choice.

我們有一些——顯然是一些——這在某種程度上是一種戰略選擇。

Do we have higher CapEx and higher growth or lower CapEx and lower growth?

我們有更高的資本支出和更高的增長還是更低的資本支出和更低的增長？

Yes.

是的。

So it's -- if we do that we can move that lever where it makes sense, where it makes sense to do so.

所以它是 - 如果我們這樣做，我們可以將槓桿移動到有意義的地方，這樣做有意義的地方。

As mentioned earlier though, we want to make sure we know what to scale before we spend money on it.

不過，如前所述，我們希望確保在花錢之前知道要擴展什麼。

And so for the Model 3, figuring out which production lines can be simply accelerated and which production lines need to be duplicated.

所以對於 Model 3，弄清楚哪些生產線可以簡單地加速，哪些生產線需要復制。

We'd far rather accelerate production line than duplicate it.

我們寧願加速生產線也不願複製它。

If we were to make those CapEx decisions because right now, we'd be making them -- we'd be kind of shooting in the dark.

如果我們要做出這些資本支出決定，因為現在，我們會做出它們——我們有點在黑暗中射擊。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

But -- in respect to China, I wouldn't expect any significant CapEx on China until 2019.

但是——就中國而言，我預計在 2019 年之前中國不會有任何顯著的資本支出。

It won't be material in 2018.

它在 2018 年不會很重要。

The China plan is sort of maybe something like -- this is just a -- like don't set your watch by this, but we -- it's sort of a rough target of start manufacturing in about 3 years, and it would be serving the China market and perhaps the -- some other countries in the region.

中國計劃可能有點像 - 這只是 - 就像不要這樣設置你的手錶，但我們 - 這是一個大約 3 年開始生產的粗略目標，它將為中國市場，也許還有該地區的其他一些國家。

And that's really its intent, is to be able to provide Model 3 and Model Y. We won't be making Model S and X, but we'll be making probably Model 3, probably Model Y primarily for the local Chinese market.

它的真正意圖是能夠提供 Model 3 和 Model Y。我們不會生產 Model S 和 X，但我們可能會生產 Model 3，可能主要是為中國當地市場生產 Model Y。

And it's really the only way to make the cars affordable in China.

這確實是讓汽車在中國買得起的唯一途徑。

But it's 3 years out, so...

但是已經3年了，所以...

And just to clarify 2 points.

只是為了澄清兩點。

Is your objective to have something that's kind of Fremont-sized in China?

你的目標是在中國擁有像弗里蒙特一樣大小的東西嗎？

And I wanted to also clarify your earlier comment about when exactly the production of Model 3 goes exponential.

我還想澄清你之前關於 Model 3 的產量何時呈指數增長的評論。

Were you suggesting that, that...

你是在暗示，那...

Let's measure right now.

讓我們現在測量。

Yes.

是的。

It's at -- oh, I guess, yes, off of a low number, but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year?

它是在 - 哦，我想，是的，從一個很低的數字開始，但是到今年年底你已經達到每週幾千了嗎？

Or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the end of the year?

還是您的意思是說到今年年底您將總共生產幾千個？

Oh, no, no.

哦，不，不。

Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential.

同樣，這真的很棘手，因為它是指數級的。

If you'd have moved the calendar date by plus, minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output.

如果您將日曆日期移動了正負數週，您會看到每週輸出的巨大差異。

But what I meant was in -- something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.

但我的意思是——在第四季度末每周大約幾千台。

But does it reflect like if you said, "Okay, what about a few weeks after Q4?" I'd say, "Yes, definitely." So it's just going to be very, very sharp.

但是，如果你說，“好吧，在第四季度之後的幾周呢？”這是否反映出來？我會說，“是的，當然。”所以它會非常非常尖銳。

Rising very, very sharply at that time.

那個時候漲的非常非常快。

To be clear, Elon's talking about a broad guidance.

需要明確的是，埃隆是在談論廣泛的指導。

He's just giving...

他只是給...

This is my guess.

這是我的猜測。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

I mean, it'll be like a fire jet in a vertical climb here.

我的意思是，它就像在這裡垂直爬升的噴火。

It's like from one moment to the nextit's suddenly very different.

就像從前一刻到下一刻突然變得非常不同。

It sounds like you'll be able to provide some pretty high confidence update on the fourth quarter earnings call.

聽起來您將能夠在第四季度財報電話會議上提供一些相當高的信心更新。

Yes.

是的。

For sure, yes.

當然，是的。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Even with the deliveries announcement, we'll have some feedback for you, as we mentioned in the letter.

正如我們在信中提到的那樣，即使有交貨公告，我們也會為您提供一些反饋。

Yes.

是的。

We're -- I would have -- I think very -- we'll have very good understanding and high clarity on the Q4 earnings call.

我們 - 我會 - 我認為非常 - 我們將對第四季度財報電話會議有很好的理解和高度清晰的認識。

Okay.

好的。

And then the China size, is this a Fremont type of project?

那麼中國的規模，這是弗里蒙特類型的項目嗎？

I mean, it's something in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year.

我的意思是，這是每年數十萬輛汽車中的一部分。

I'm not sure where it is exactly in the -- it's at least a couple hundred thousand vehicles a year, maybe more.

我不確定它到底在哪裡——每年至少有幾十萬輛，也許更多。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

Yes, I have a question and a follow-up, please.

是的，我有一個問題和跟進，請。

Elon, you just talked about sort of this trade-off between growth and capital spending.

Elon，你剛才談到了增長和資本支出之間的這種權衡。

And quite frankly, I think it's really the first time that I've heard you talk about that potential trade-off.

坦率地說，我認為這真的是我第一次聽到你談論這種潛在的權衡。

Usually, Tesla's been all about doing as much as quickly as possible to lead the move to electrification, to establish a first-mover advantage, et cetera.

通常，特斯拉一直在盡可能快地引領電氣化進程，建立先發優勢，等等。

So is the hesitancy in going all-out growth?

那麼，全力以赴增長的猶豫呢？

Is that a concern that you might run out of cash and have to raise more cash?

是否擔心您可能會用光現金並不得不籌集更多現金？

Is that a bandwidth concern for the organization in terms of trying to do too much too quickly?

就試圖做太多太快的事情而言，這是組織的帶寬問題嗎？

Is that a concern about using capital effectively?

這是對有效使用資本的擔憂嗎？

What's at the root of that decision?

這個決定的根源是什麼？

And why isn't the -- why is there even a decision, I guess, is the question?

為什麼不是——我猜為什麼甚至有一個決定是問題？

I mean, I would say it's probably a bit of all.

我的意思是，我會說這可能只是一點點。

I mean, it's prudent for us to think through all of that as we are continuing to grow.

我的意思是，在我們繼續成長的過程中，仔細考慮所有這些對我們來說是明智的。

Certainly, we would want to be in a certain sense of fiduciary responsibility that we have in addition to just growing like crazy.

當然，除了瘋狂地成長之外，我們還希望有某種我們所擁有的受託責任感。

So...

所以...

I mean, these are mad, substantial growth rates for the car industry.

我的意思是，對於汽車行業來說，這些都是瘋狂的、可觀的增長率。

And I think some made some comparison of Tesla's growth rate relative to Ford in the Model T era.

而且我認為有些人將特斯拉在 T 型時代相對於福特的增長率進行了比較。

And we're talking about a rate of growth faster than the Model T, which is the fastest in history.

而且我們談論的是比 T 型車更快的增長速度，這是歷史上最快的。

So these are nutty growth rates.

所以這些是瘋狂的增長率。

It's certainly not the first time we've thought about this.

這當然不是我們第一次考慮這個問題。

Yes.

是的。

We have talked about that.

我們已經談過了。

When our growth rate, I don't have -- recall the exact numbers, but I think it's been in the 70%, 80% every year.

當我們的增長率，我沒有 - 回憶確切的數字，但我認為它每年都在 70% 和 80% 之間。

And next year even with 5,000, it'll be like crazy compared to this year.

明年即使有 5,000 個，與今年相比也會像瘋了一樣。

So our growth rate continues to be extraordinary.

因此，我們的增長率仍然非常驚人。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

If our growth rate continues at anything like that in the coming years, I mean, if it continues to be something like that, Tesla will be the largest car company in the world by volume as well.

如果我們的增長率在未來幾年繼續保持這樣的水平，我的意思是，如果繼續保持這樣的水平，特斯拉也將成為世界上銷量最大的汽車公司。

And Toni, it may be helpful if it accelerates with new product introductions too.

Toni，如果它也隨著新產品的推出而加速，這可能會有所幫助。

Model X reached Model S demand rates in half the time.

Model X 在一半的時間內達到了 Model S 的需求率。

So at twice the rate of demand build.

因此，需求增長的速度是兩倍。

So not only are we growing, but we're accelerating as we grow.

因此，我們不僅在成長，而且隨著我們的成長而加速。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Right.

正確的。

Model 3 will be, I'd call it, 5x -- it'll be 5x Model S or X.

Model 3 將是，我稱之為 5x——它將是 Model S 或 X 的 5x。

Yes, and, if you look at the timing and its order of magnitude, shifts downward.

是的，而且，如果你看一下時間和它的數量級，就會向下移動。

Yes.

是的。

I guess, the question is...

我想，問題是...

(inaudible) looks like, yes.

（聽不清）看起來，是的。

But really, perhaps to punctuate a little bit more, you've talked about pretty soon you're going to be close to cash flow-generative once you get the volume on the Model 3. And so I'm just surprised why you're actually not trying to step on that as quickly as possible, because extensively, once you get to that level, then cash flow really doesn't become a problem.

但實際上，也許要再強調一點，你已經談到很快，一旦你獲得 Model 3 的銷量，你將接近產生現金流。所以我只是很驚訝你為什麼實際上並沒有試圖盡快踩到這一點，因為廣泛地說，一旦你達到那個水平，那麼現金流真的不會成為問題。

And so is there any difference in that view?

那麼這種觀點有什麼不同嗎？

Otherwise, I'm just struggling to sort of reconcile why you don't want to get to scale, get to volume, get to positive operating cash flow as quickly as possible.

否則，我只是在努力調和為什麼你不想盡快擴大規模、擴大規模、獲得正的經營現金流。

Just to be clear, we are trying to get as fast as we can to 5,000, and then we will work as fast as we can to get to 10,000.

需要明確的是，我們正在努力盡可能快地達到 5,000，然後我們將盡可能快地達到 10,000。

Yes.

是的。

I don't think we were saying we wouldn't do it.

我不認為我們說我們不會這樣做。

We're just saying we have to think through it and make the strategic trade-offs in terms of timing.

我們只是說我們必須仔細考慮它並在時間方面做出戰略權衡。

But we'd think through it.

但我們會考慮清楚。

Yes, I mean it's sort of like we're wondering what fuels everyone's interpretations of timescales.

是的，我的意思是，這有點像我們想知道是什麼推動了每個人對時間尺度的解釋。

For us, it's like, well, should we have the growth to 10,000 be -- take 9 months, 12 months or 15 months?

對我們來說，這就像，我們應該增長到 10,000 - 需要 9 個月、12 個月還是 15 個月？

Sort of these are like flash-in-the-pan timescales for other manufacturers.

對於其他製造商來說，這些時間尺度就像曇花一現。

Right, okay.

對，好吧。

If I could just follow up on a separate topic.

如果我可以跟進一個單獨的主題。

On the S and X gross margins, they look like they must have fallen materially, unless Model 3 gross margins were worse than minus 1,000%.

在 S 和 X 的毛利率上，它們看起來肯定已經大幅下降，除非 Model 3 的毛利率低於負 1,000%。

So maybe you can help us understand what S and X margins -- gross margins were this quarter.

因此，也許您可以幫助我們了解本季度的 S 和 X 利潤率——毛利率。

And given most of the onetime stuff is gone and the mix shift is favorable, why wouldn't they snap back to be similar or better next quarter?

鑑於大部分曾經的東西都消失了，而且混合轉變是有利的，為什麼他們不會在下個季度恢復到相似或更好的狀態呢？

And do you think that the promotional activity helped drive volume for S and X this quarter?

您認為促銷活動是否有助於推動本季度 S 和 X 的銷量？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I -- firstly, your analysis is completely off from what we see internally.

我的意思是，我 - 首先，您的分析與我們內部看到的完全不同。

And the mix shift that we saw, part of that continues in Q4 and...

我們看到的混合轉變，其中一部分在第四季度繼續，並且......

Largely because we're custom -- we're largely custom orders, so there's orders that were placed in Q3 that we will ship in Q4.

很大程度上是因為我們是定制的——我們主要是定制訂單，所以有些訂單是在第三季度下達的，我們將在第四季度發貨。

Right.

正確的。

And then as we achieve -- well, continue to achieve efficiencies and also work on that mix shift, which takes time, we will continue to see improvement.

然後，隨著我們實現 - 好吧，繼續提高效率並致力於這種混合轉變，這需要時間，我們將繼續看到改進。

And I have full confidence in S and X gross margin.

我對 S 和 X 的毛利率充滿信心。

Yes.

是的。

Because the Tesla cars being sold in Q4 are inventory rundown and some clearing older models.

因為第四季度銷售的特斯拉汽車庫存破舊，一些舊車型清倉。

Service loaners.

服務借用者。

Discontinued models, the service loaners.

停產車型，服務借車。

And those go for slightly lower average selling price than a custom-order vehicle that has maybe a point or 2 effects on gross margin.

與定制車輛相比，這些車輛的平均售價略低，可能對毛利率有 1 或 2 的影響。

But yes, I mean, it should get back to the mid-20s essentially in Q4.

但是，是的，我的意思是，它應該基本上在第四季度回到 20 年代中期。

Our next question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布賴恩約翰遜。

Yes, wanted to just drill down on the service revenue and expenses line.

是的，只想深入了解服務收入和支出線。

Not something we often talk about, but a lot of the other questions have been asked.

這不是我們經常談論的事情，但已經提出了很多其他問題。

Looks like year-over-year revenues were up $180 million, costs were up $247 million.

看起來收入同比增加了 1.8 億美元，成本增加了 2.47 億美元。

Could you just talk about the drivers of that change between what's left of the drivetrain outsource business, the CPO business, the service loaner actual vehicles expense and then the cost of the PP&E for the actual people and service infrastructure?

您能否談談動力傳動系統外包業務、CPO 業務、服務借用人實際車輛費用以及實際人員和服務基礎設施的 PP&E 成本之間發生變化的驅動因素？

Yes.

是的。

So I think what you see there is the increase in PP&E for the service infrastructure.

所以我認為你看到的是服務基礎設施的 PP&E 增加。

We wanted to get out in front of demand as we're increasing both S and X fleet size and also of Model 3. So we opened a location just about every 4 days in Q3.

隨著 S 和 X 車隊規模以及 Model 3 的增加，我們希望在需求面前脫穎而出。因此，我們在第三季度幾乎每 4 天開設一個地點。

And to get ahead of that demand, you probably saw that we put 180 mobile vehicles on the road, and we plan to double that this quarter.

為了滿足這一需求，您可能已經看到我們在道路上投放了 180 輛移動車輛，我們計劃在本季度將這一數字翻一番。

And so a lot of that, what you see is PP&E.

很多，你看到的是PP&E。

In terms of the drivetrain issue that you mentioned, that's mostly behind us.

就您提到的動力傳動系統問題而言，這主要是在我們身後。

In fact, we see very little of that now.

事實上，我們現在看到的很少。

The reliability for S and X continues to improve.

S 和 X 的可靠性不斷提高。

And you asked about the CPO business.

你問到CPO業務。

The CPO business, for us, last year -- or last quarter was about a $238 million revenue business.

對我們來說，去年或上個季度的 CPO 業務收入約為 2.38 億美元。

We expect that to grow to $1 billion run rate -- or $1 billion business for all of 2017.

我們預計這將增長到 10 億美元的運行率——或 2017 年全年的 10 億美元業務。

And so that business is growing rapidly at the same time.

因此，該業務同時也在迅速增長。

And we're running those -- we do our own CPO refurbishment.

我們正在運行這些——我們自己進行 CPO 翻新。

We do that in the same service infrastructure that we're servicing the cars.

我們在為汽車提供服務的同一服務基礎設施中做到這一點。

So you see a little bit of that cost into that line as well.

所以你也看到了那條線的一點成本。

Okay.

好的。

And my follow-on for Deepak, probably, is can you walk us through the depreciation when you produce, for example, in the second quarter those 100 -- P100D cars Mr. Musk talked about going into the loaner fleet?

我對 Deepak 的後續跟進可能是，你能告訴我們，當你生產時，例如，在第二季度，馬斯克先生談到要進入借用車隊的那 100 輛 P100D 汽車時，我們會經歷折舊嗎？

Where do those -- how do those get depreciated while they're in the loaner fleet?

這些在哪裡 - 當它們在租藉機隊中時，它們是如何貶值的？

And when they're transferred to be sold, what's the accounting on that?

當它們被轉移出售時，會計是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

They are capitalized as inventory because these cars are salable.

它們被資本化為庫存，因為這些汽車是可銷售的。

And when these cars get sold, the depreciation related to those cars gets recognized in COGS.

當這些汽車被售出時，與這些汽車相關的折舊就會在 COGS 中得到確認。

Okay.

好的。

So it's not in the cost of the service centers?

所以這不是服務中心的成本嗎？

No.

不。

The next question comes from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

You also mentioned some constraints in body shop welding and final assembly.

您還提到了車身車間焊接和總裝的一些限制。

And final assembly obviously makes sense, given constraints elsewhere.

考慮到其他地方的限制，最終組裝顯然是有道理的。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about welding.

我想知道你是否可以談談焊接。

And then as you get to your year-end run rate, is there still going to be a discrepancy between sort of different parts of the entire line?

然後當你達到你的年終運行率時，整個生產線的不同部分之間是否還會存在差異？

Or do you think everything is going to be roughly at the same level?

還是您認為一切都會大致處於同一水平？

Doug, would you like to take that on?

道格，你願意接受嗎？

Well, with respect to welding, the rate is controlled by -- are you specifically asking about the video?

嗯，關於焊接，速度是由——你是專門詢問視頻的嗎？

Or do you have another...

還是你有別的...

I'm sorry.

對不起。

In the letter, it said body shop welding is listed as a constraint.

在信中，它說車身車間焊接被列為限制因素。

Yes, it was not the same constraints.

是的，這不是相同的約束。

It wasn't listed as a constraint.

它沒有被列為約束。

Yes.

是的。

It's not the same level of constraint as the Gigafactory, but it is one of the more complex parts of the overall assembly line.

它與 Gigafactory 的約束水平不同，但它是整個裝配線中更複雜的部分之一。

So to reach our overall production goals, that has to ramp significantly.

因此，為了實現我們的整體生產目標，必須大幅提升。

But again, it's not at the same level of constraint as modules.

但同樣，它與模塊的約束級別不同。

And it's really driven just by the sheer number of robots in the body shop.

而且它真的只是由車身修理廠中的機器人數量所驅動。

It's the highest concentration of robots anywhere in our overall production line.

這是我們整個生產線中機器人最集中的地方。

But it is coming up well.

但它進展順利。

The bodies that we're building are of excellent quality.

我們正在建造的車身質量上乘。

We've had fantastic crash results in testing them.

我們在測試它們時取得了驚人的崩潰結果。

And we're building more and more every day.

我們每天都在建造越來越多的東西。

We're ahead of the rest of the production curve.

我們領先於生產曲線的其餘部分。

Okay.

好的。

And then as a follow-up on the capital question, I mean, Elon, I think, a year ago on this call, you said to go from 5,000 to 10,000 was -- would require a fair amount of capital, but you were confident that it'd be less than you're going 0 to 5,000.

然後作為資本問題的後續行動，我的意思是，埃隆，我想，一年前在這個電話會議上，你說從 5,000 到 10,000 需要相當數量的資本，但你有信心它會比你去 0 到 5,000 的要少。

And now that you have some real-world experience with the ramp, I'm wondering if you have any different views there, if you could put a little bit of a finer point on that comment.

既然您已經對坡道有一些實際經驗，我想知道您是否對此有任何不同的看法，是否可以對該評論提出一些更好的觀點。

Yes.

是的。

I don't think -- I mean, we actually feel even more strongly that our efficiency of CapEx on the next phase will be significant compared to the first phase.

我不認為 - 我的意思是，我們實際上更加強烈地感覺到，與第一階段相比，下一階段的資本支出效率將顯著提高。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

Some elements will require almost no CapEx.

有些元素幾乎不需要資本支出。

It's -- really come to realize that the -- you really want to make a factory go incredibly fast.

它 - 真正意識到 - 你真的想讓工廠運轉得非常快。

Like really -- I think speed is the ultimate weapon when it comes to innovation or production, and we're pushing robots to the limit in terms of the speed that they can operate at, and asking our suppliers to make robots go way faster.

真的 - 我認為速度是創新或生產的終極武器，我們正在將機器人的運行速度推向極限，並要求我們的供應商讓機器人運行得更快。

And that they're shocked because nobody's ever asked them that question before.

他們感到震驚，因為以前沒有人問過他們這個問題。

It's like if you can see the robot move, it's too slow.

就像如果你能看到機器人移動，它太慢了。

We should be carrying about air friction, like things moving so fast.

我們應該進行空氣摩擦，就像事情移動得如此之快。

It should be -- you should need a strobe light to see it.

應該是——你應該需要一個頻閃燈才能看到它。

And that's incredibly critical to CapEx efficiency.

這對資本支出效率至關重要。

And also we're going to be designing a lot of the robotic elements and automotion on it internally.

我們還將在內部設計很多機器人元素和自動運動。

So yes, because plenty of suppliers are just too slow to respond in some cases.

所以是的，因為很多供應商在某些情況下反應太慢了。

Okay.

好的。

We have 10 more questions in the queue, so we're obviously not going to get to everybody.

我們還有 10 個問題在等待隊列中，所以我們顯然不會回答每個人。

Elon, do you want to take just a couple more?

埃隆，你想再多拿幾個嗎？

Sure.

當然。

The next question comes from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Colin Rusch。

Could you talk about the percentage of sales that are coming from these loaners to the fleet vehicles?

您能否談談從這些借用人到車隊車輛的銷售額百分比？

We're trying to reconcile the MSRP declines that you implemented and what, it looks like, is a little bit more severe ASP decline.

我們正在嘗試協調您實施的建議零售價下降以及看起來更嚴重的 ASP 下降。

And then also, if you could talk a little bit about why you felt that it was necessary to add value to the Model S and Model X while lowering price.

然後，如果你能談談為什麼你覺得有必要在降低價格的同時增加 Model S 和 Model X 的價值。

It seems like you should be able to drive volumes with one or the other.

似乎您應該能夠使用其中一個來驅動卷。

Yes, I think, to the first question, I would say it's roughly about 5% of [total sales]

是的，我認為，對於第一個問題，我會說這大約是 [總銷售額] 的 5%

Yes.

是的。

Very -- yes.

非常——是的。

Very low single digits in terms of service loaner sales as a percentage of total units.

服務借用人銷售額佔總單位數的百分比非常低。

Yes.

是的。

We -- as far as the prices, it was -- Model X was always -- it was really the one that saw more of a price reduction than other things.

我們 - 就價格而言，它是 - Model X 一直是 - 它確實是比其他產品降價更多的車型。

And then the 100-kilowatt hour pack, which was -- 100-kilowatt pack cars was artificially priced high because we were production -- like really production-constrained on that pack.

然後是 100 千瓦時的電池組，即 100 千瓦電池組的汽車被人為定價高，因為我們正在生產，就像那個電池組的生產受到限制一樣。

It was never our intention to price it quite that high, so we reduced it a little bit and then added some content as to both.

我們從來沒有打算給它定價那麼高，所以我們稍微降低了它，然後為兩者添加了一些內容。

So we just sort of split it between some price reductions where we thought things were a little overpriced, and then added some content just to have a clear differentiation.

因此，我們只是在一些我們認為價格過高的降價之間進行了拆分，然後添加了一些內容以實現明顯的差異化。

We weren't quite sure what the response would be to the Model 3. So maybe we might have overcorrected a little bit, but that's kind of where it is.

我們不太確定對 Model 3 的反應是什麼。所以也許我們可能已經過度糾正了一點，但這就是它所在的地方。

Okay.

好的。

And then just moving to the China strategy.

然後只是轉向中國戰略。

Obviously, with the permanent magnet requirements for the DC motor for the Model 3 and what we've seen historically with export restrictions in China and improved environmental enforcement in terms of mining practices, how important is that to the strategy of moving into China and maintaining your supply lines for the growth of the Model 3?

顯然，鑑於 Model 3 對直流電機的永磁要求，以及我們在中國歷史上看到的出口限制和採礦實踐方面環境執法的改善，這對於進軍中國的戰略和維持您的 Model 3 增長的供應線？

I think we think about China more from a demand side than anything.

我認為我們更多地從需求方面考慮中國。

We're building complete cars and shipping them.

我們正在製造完整的汽車並運送它們。

We're shipping them across the ocean and into the largest electric vehicle market in the world.

我們將它們運送到大洋彼岸，進入世界上最大的電動汽車市場。

So what really pulls us into China primarily is to be able to supply that market and to make the cars more affordable, as Elon said, so that we're not forcing consumers to experience tariffs as we bring those cars in.

因此，真正吸引我們進入中國的主要是能夠供應該市場並使汽車更實惠，正如埃隆所說，這樣我們就不會在我們將這些汽車帶入時強迫消費者體驗關稅。

That's a much bigger impact than any of the supply chain or sourcing materials issue.

這比任何供應鍊或採購材料問題的影響都要大得多。

The next question comes from Rob Cihra of Guggenheim.

下一個問題來自古根海姆的 Rob Cihra。

Great.

偉大的。

I recognize it's not the biggest focus right now, but I'm just curious on solar declining as you expected, but just wondering when you think that can start growing again.

我承認這不是目前最大的焦點，但我只是對太陽能的下降感到好奇，正如你所預期的那樣，只是想知道你認為什麼時候可以再次開始增長。

Is that a function of Solar Roof?

這是太陽能屋頂的功能嗎？

Or is that sort of moving past your sales changes?

還是這種超越你的銷售變化？

And then, I guess, similarly on energy storage, the ramp looking -- sort of exiting this year into 2018, is that constrained by the Model 3?

然後，我想，類似地在能源存儲方面，坡道看起來 - 從今年退出到 2018 年，這是否受到 Model 3 的限制？

Or is that on its own separate track?

還是在它自己的單獨軌道上？

Yes, we are -- we do expect the solar demand to rebound as we move solar sales into all of our stores, which is a much more efficient channel for demand generation.

是的，我們確實預計太陽能需求會反彈，因為我們將太陽能銷售轉移到我們所有的商店，這是一個更有效的需求產生渠道。

And that's just what's sort of conventional solar.

這就是傳統的太陽能。

The Solar Roof stuff, we expect, is going to be at -- or well, we're confident it's going to have extremely high demand.

我們預計，太陽能屋頂的產品將會出現——或者好吧，我們相信它會有極高的需求。

And we're just going through the validation process for the solar trials.

我們正在經歷太陽能試驗的驗證過程。

It does -- and they're working right now, I should point out.

確實如此——我應該指出，他們現在正在工作。

So I have the Solar Roof tiles on my house.

所以我家有太陽能屋頂瓦片。

So -- and I don't even notice that they're there because they blend in so well.

所以——我什至沒有註意到它們在那裡，因為它們融合得很好。

But they -- so they look really good but a roof is expected to last a long time.

但是它們——所以它們看起來非常好，但屋頂預計可以使用很長時間。

So at least 25, 30 years.

所以至少25、30年。

And so there's some rate at which we can do accelerated life testing on -- for the rest of the component.

因此，我們可以在一定程度上對組件的其餘部分進行加速壽命測試。

So we can maybe try to accelerate life testing on a 30-year roof in sort of 6 months, but it's hard to do it in less than about that 6 months.

因此，我們也許可以嘗試在 6 個月內加速 30 年屋頂的壽命測試，但在不到 6 個月的時間內很難做到。

So and then we're going to pack that into the production process.

所以然後我們將把它打包到生產過程中。

So I have no doubt that this will be a very significant part of the business down the road, it just takes a little while to get this behemoth rolling.

所以我毫不懷疑這將是未來業務的一個非常重要的部分，讓這個龐然大物運轉起來只需要一點時間。

But once it gets rolling, it's going to be a behemoth.

但是一旦它開始滾動，它將成為一個龐然大物。

And we continue to install pilot engineering, early customer homes.

我們繼續安裝試點工程，早期客戶住宅。

We continue the cadence of that.

我們繼續這樣的節奏。

Yes.

是的。

You have one in your house in the woods.

你在樹林裡的房子裡有一個。

Yes, this is J.B. I installed one, and quite a few others at this point more than 10.

是的，這是 J.B. 我安裝了一個，而其他不少人此時已安裝了 10 多個。

And we still are on track to turn on some -- most of the production line in Buffalo at the end of this year to start ramping final actual production versus this in the final factory.

我們仍然有望在今年年底在布法羅啟動一些生產線，以開始增加最終的實際產量，而不是最終工廠的生產線。

Yes.

是的。

And maybe to your point about the separation from Model 3, those production areas are largely separate.

也許就您與 Model 3 的分離而言，這些生產區域在很大程度上是分開的。

That's right for the pack side.

這對包裝方面來說是正確的。

Yes, storage versus vehicles.

是的，存儲與車輛。

The energy storage production is actually growing at a really -- actually doing really well by our ability to complete the South Australia project or be on track to complete that.

儲能生產實際上正在以非常高的速度增長——實際上，我們有能力完成南澳大利亞項目或有望完成該項目。

That's...

那是...

In Puerto Rico.

在波多黎各。

As well -- yes, as well as the deployments in Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Caribbean.

還有——是的，以及在波多黎各和加勒比其他地方的部署。

That's been running at nominal rate and doing quite well.

這一直以名義速度運行並且做得很好。

So those are quite separate.

所以這些是完全不同的。

And down the road, there will be some cell conflict.

並且在路上，會有一些細胞衝突。

I mean, I think if you sort of fast-forward a year or 2, we really need to think about cell production as being a constraint.

我的意思是，我認為如果你快進一兩年，我們真的需要將電池生產視為一種限制。

And some of the (inaudible) going into cell production so they can go a couple of years out, making sure that we have a secure supplies of lithium hydroxide, cobalt.

還有一些（聽不清）進入電池生產，這樣它們就可以停產幾年，確保我們有安全的氫氧化鋰、鈷供應。

There's actually more amount of cobalt.

實際上有更多的鈷。

I mean to say nickel, but yes, sort of...

我的意思是說鎳，但是是的，有點……

Nickel, graphite, copper or aluminum.

鎳、石墨、銅或鋁。

Yes.

是的。

The separator like line.

分隔符像行。

The module ones that we're operating to assemble the cells into modules are totally separate.

我們用來將電池組裝成模塊的模塊是完全獨立的。

So that -- it's this Model 3 module line in that order that we're focused on right now and improving quickly, but the energy module line, in the same building, coincidentally, but it is a totally separate line.

所以——我們現在專注於並迅速改進的順序是 Model 3 模塊線，但巧合的是，能源模塊線在同一棟建築中，但它是一條完全獨立的線。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I think that's, unfortunately, all the time we have today.

不幸的是，我認為這就是我們今天所擁有的所有時間。

Appreciate all your great questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

感謝您提出的所有重要問題，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Goodbye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。