特斯拉 (TSLA) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Q4 and full-year 2016 financial results and Q&A webcast.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎收看特斯拉 2016 年第四季和全年財務業績及問答網路直播。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference Mr. Jeff Evanson of Investor Relations. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係部的傑夫·埃文森先生。您可以開始了。

Thank you, Vicki, and good afternoon everyone and welcome to Tesla's fourth quarter and full-year 2016 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, JB Straubel, Jason Wheeler, and Jon McNeill. Our Q4 results are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast.

謝謝Vicki，大家下午好！歡迎收聽特斯拉2016年第四季及全年問答網路直播。今天，我和Elon Musk、JB Straubel、Jason Wheeler以及Jon McNeill一同參與了直播。我們的第四季業績將在更新信中公佈，連結與本次網路直播相同。

During our call we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

在電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We will start today's call with some brief comments by Elon, followed by the Q&A session. During the Q&A, try and limit yourself to one question and one follow-up please. And press star one now to join the question queue. Okay Elon, over to you.

今天的電話會議將以馬斯克的簡短發言開始，之後是問答環節。問答環節請盡量只提出一個問題和一個後續問題。現在按星號 1 即可加入提問佇列。好的，馬斯克，輪到你了。

Thank you. First of all I would like to announce that our CFO Jason Wheeler has decided to leave Tesla in April, so the end of next month, to pursue opportunities in public policy. Jason will be replaced by Deepak Ahuja who was Tesla's first CFO and worked for the Company for more than seven years before stepping away in 2015.

謝謝。首先，我想宣布，我們的財務長傑森惠勒 (Jason Wheeler) 決定在四月（也就是下個月底）離開特斯拉，尋求公共政策領域的發展機會。傑森的職位將由迪帕克·阿胡賈 (Deepak Ahuja) 接任。迪帕克·阿胡賈曾是特斯拉的首任財務官，在 2015 年離職前，已在公司工作了七年多。

Deepak will formally take over CFO in early March, with Jason remaining at Tesla through April to ensure a smooth transition. And Jason, would you like to say anything?

Deepak 將於 3 月初正式接任財務官，Jason 將繼續在特斯拉任職至 4 月，以確保順利交接。 Jason，您有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes, sure. First, Elon, thanks for the opportunity. It's been a great ride. And I'm really going to miss working with all the wonderful people at Tesla. This is an [A] team. When I walked in the door I was very passionate about the mission of the Company, and today I'm even more passionate than I was on the day I walked in.

是的，當然。首先，埃隆，謝謝你給我這個機會。這是一段很棒的旅程。我真的很懷念和特斯拉所有優秀員工一起工作的日子。這是一個一流的團隊。當我走進公司大門時，我對公司的使命充滿熱情，而今天，我比剛進來的那天更充滿熱情。

I think it is also important to say I'm looking to scratch an itch that I've had for many, many years now. I'm going to go do something in the public sector, but I wouldn't have felt comfortable about leaving if we didn't have a really good plug-in place, or solution in place, for the Company. I think with Deepak's history here on the verge of bankruptcy and everything he has gone through, he is well-positioned.

我認為，同樣重要的是，我想解決多年來一直困擾我的問題。我打算去公共部門做點什麼，但如果公司沒有一個真正好的接替者或解決方案，我離開時會感到不安。我認為，鑑於迪帕克曾經瀕臨破產，以及他所經歷的一切，他已經做好了充分的準備。

Long, long time ago.

很久很久以前。

Long time ago. Long, long time ago. He's well-positioned to take it to the next level of growth and I've spent a good amount of time with him in the past week, and he's super energized and ready to go. He's a great leader and I think I'm leaving Tesla in good hands.

很久以前，很久很久以前。他完全有能力帶領特斯拉邁向新的成長階段。過去一周，我和他相處了很長時間，他精力充沛，隨時準備投入工作。他是一位優秀的領導者，我認為我會把特斯拉交給可靠的人。

And Jason, thank you again for everything you've done.

傑森，再次感謝你所做的一切。

Absolutely. My pleasure.

當然。我很樂意。

So let's see.

讓我們看看。

I think we're ready for the first question.

我想我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

Let's dive right into the questions.

讓我們直接深入探討這些問題。

All right, Vicki, first question please.

好的，Vicki，請問第一個問題。

Our first question comes from the line of Adam Jones, Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當瓊斯 (Adam Jones)。您的電話現在暢通。

First good luck, Jason, and congrats, Deepak, welcome back. Elon, a question for you on Mars. Let's kick it off with Mars.

首先祝你好運，傑森。恭喜你，迪帕克，歡迎回來。伊隆，我想問你一個關於火星的問題。我們就從火星開始吧。

Really?

真的嗎？

Yes, it has Tesla relevance though, so just bear with me.

是的，它與特斯拉有關，所以請耐心聽我說完。

I admire long-term thinking but that's impressive.

我欽佩長遠的思考，但這令人印象深刻。

Numerous reports have suggested the new administration may be in favor of accelerating a mission to send humans to Mars. I'm curious if you think this is accurate in spirit and if launched how could this potentially change your balance of time spent between Tesla and SpaceX? Could it potentially change the rationale of keeping Tesla and SpaceX as independent companies? And this is a serious question, Elon.

大量報告表明，新政府可能支持加速人類登陸火星的任務。我很好奇，您是否認為這本質上是正確的？如果真的實施，這可能會如何改變您在特斯拉和SpaceX之間分配的時間？這會改變特斯拉和SpaceX作為獨立公司營運的概念嗎？埃隆，這是一個嚴肅的問題。

Okay. Well, yes. (Laughter) When you started out I was a little curious as to how this would become relevant to Tesla. As I said before, I expect to remain with Tesla essentially forever, unless somebody kicks me out. So that remains my intention.

好的。嗯，是的。 （笑聲）你剛開始的時候，我有點好奇這會跟特斯拉有什麼關係。正如我之前所說，我希望永遠留在特斯拉，除非有人把我踢出去。所以這仍然是我的意圖。

And I've been pursuing the Mars thing at SpaceX and sustainable energy at Tesla for a long time as it pertains [to it]. So I think it's going into a pretty good rhythm and yes, I don't think -- I still don't think I'm going to change my actions as a result of, you know, initiative by the administration. Although I think a Mars initiative would be amazing and really energize the public domestically and worldwide, just as the Apollo mission to the moon did almost half a century ago. So, that's probably the best -- the most I can say about that, yes.

我在SpaceX一直致力於火星計劃，在特斯拉也長期致力於永續能源相關領域的研究。所以我認為現在進展順利，是的，我不認為——我仍然認為我不會因為政府的舉措而改變我的行動。不過，我認為火星計畫將會非常棒，能夠真正激發美國乃至全世界大眾的活力，就像近半個世紀前的阿波羅登月計畫一樣。所以，這可能是我能說的最好的——也是我能說的最多的了，是的。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

[Fireside].

[爐邊]。

Thank you, thank you. Just a follow up, on insurance, if your cars prove to be as much as 90% safer than other cars on a per mile basis, as I think you've alluded as a reasonable target medium-term, and if insurance companies only offer your customers, say, a piddling 5% discount versus a comparably priced car, would you consider offering a service or product like P&C insurance directly to Tesla owners from your own platform and you own stores? Thanks.

謝謝，謝謝。關於保險，我再問一下。如果事實證明，你們的汽車每英里的安全性比其他汽車高出 90%（我認為你們提到了中期的合理目標），而保險公司只給你們的客戶提供，比如說，與同等價位的汽車相比，只有區區 5% 的折扣，你們會考慮透過你們自己的平台和門市，直接向特斯拉車主提供類似財產和意外財產和意外財產的服務或產品嗎？謝謝。

Jon, do you want to take that?

喬恩，你想接受這個嗎？

Hi, Adam, it's Jon. We're actually currently doing that. We've been doing it quietly. But in Asia, in particular when we started this, now the majority of Tesla cars are sold with an insurance product that is customized to Tesla. It takes into account not only this autopilot safety features, but also the maintenance costs of the car. It is our vision in the future that we will be able to offer a single price for the car, maintenance and insurance, in a really compelling offering for the consumer and we're currently doing that today.

嗨，亞當，我是喬恩。我們實際上目前正在做這件事，而且一直在悄悄地做。但在亞洲，尤其是在我們開始這個計畫的時候，現在大多數特斯拉汽車都附帶了針對特斯拉客製化的保險產品。它不僅考慮了自動駕駛安全功能，還考慮了汽車的維護成本。我們未來的願景是，能夠為汽車、維護和保險提供統一的價格，為消費者提供真正有吸引力的服務，我們現在正在這樣做。

And this is Elon. Not to the exclusion of insurance providers but if we find that insurance providers are not matching the insurance proportionate to the risk of the car, then if we need to, we will [in source] it. I think we will find that insurance providers do adjust the insurance cost proportionate to the risk of a Tesla.

這就是伊隆。這並不是排除保險公司，但如果我們發現保險公司沒有根據車輛的風險比例調整保險費用，那麼如果需要，我們會進行調整。我認為我們會發現，保險公司確實會根據特斯拉的風險比例調整保險費用。

And that's true, that's true. We are doing this with insurance partners today.

確實如此，沒錯。我們今天正在與保險合作夥伴合作。

Right.

正確的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自高盛的David Tamberrino。您的線路暢通。

Thanks. Good evening, gentlemen.

謝謝。先生們，晚上好。

Good afternoon. Evening for you I'm sure.

午安.相信你也會是晚上好。

It's been a long day for me and it will be a long night. Curious as to what has changed on your end. Obviously you've got a -- made an acquisition. You've hired an individual in manufacturing from last year.

對我來說，今天是漫長的一天，今晚也會是漫長的夜晚。我很好奇你那邊發生了什麼變化。顯然，你完成了一項收購。你從去年開始就僱用了一位製造業的員工。

Really moving from the Model S and X to the Model 3 ramp that you are looking for in the back half of 2017 here and 2018. How have you gone about the Model 3 development differently versus the Model S and Model X that will really be able to unlock the key to driving production much higher than what your previous ramps have looked like for new products?

您真的希望在 2017 年下半年和 2018 年從 Model S 和 X 轉向 Model 3 的量產。與 Model S 和 Model X 相比，您在 Model 3 的開發上有何不同？這是否真的能夠解開推動產量成長的關鍵，使其遠高於您先前為新產品量產時所設定的產量？

Right. The Model 3 is designed with -- it's really designed for manufacturing. It is conservatively a simpler car than the S or the X. Some of these -- some of the indications are obvious. For example the Model 3 only has one screen whereas the S and X have two screens and two separate computers powering each screen. The Model 3 has 1.5 kilometers of wiring. The Model S has 3 kilometers of wiring so we've simplified the wiring system conservatively.

是的。 Model 3 的設計——它實際上是為製造而設計的。它比 Model S 或 Model X 保守地說要簡單一些。其中一些跡像很明顯。例如，Model 3 只有一個螢幕，而 Model S 和 Model X 有兩個螢幕，每個螢幕由兩台獨立的電腦供電。 Model 3 的路線長達 1.5 公里，而 Model S 的路線長達 3 公里，因此我們保守地簡化了線路系統。

A lot of the bells and whistles that are present on an S and X are not present on a Model 3. We don't have self-presenting door handles for example or buckling doors. These reduce the risk substantially in the ramp and make it just easier to scale. So I think it is going to be a very compelling car, but it's a simpler design and we also understand manufacturing a lot better than we did in the past.

Model 3 上沒有 S 和 X 上的很多花俏配置。例如，我們沒有自動彈出式門把手或扣環門。這些設計大大降低了量產風險，也使其更容易量產。所以我認為它會是一款非常引人注目的汽車，但它的設計更簡潔，我們對製造流程的理解也比過去更深刻。

And we are also able to get usually the A team at the A supplier for Model 3. It's rare that we are not able to get that. Whereas for -- particularly for S and to some degree for X -- when we were trying to get suppliers for the Model S, a lot of the top-tier suppliers wouldn't even work with us. They thought we'd go bankrupt. And the IHS, I think it's called (multiple speakers).

而且我們通常也能從Model 3的A級供應商找到A級團隊。我們很少找不到這樣的團隊。而當我們試圖為Model S尋找供應商時，許多頂級供應商甚至不願與我們合作。他們認為我們會破產。我記得IHS（多位發言者）就是這樣。

Basically the industry predictor for volume of the Model S predicted -- had an official prediction -- of 3,000 units lifetime for the Model S. And for a lot of the big supplier -- that the large conglomerate suppliers, they just plug that number into their predictions. They ignore what we say and then they say, well, the volume is either too small to count or the [hard cost] is enormous because the fixed costs must be allocated over such a small volume.

基本上，業界對 Model S 銷售的預測——官方預測——是 3000 輛。而許多大型供應商——大型集團供應商，只是把這個數字套用到他們的預測中。他們無視我們的意見，然後說，要嘛銷售太小，不算是，要嘛（硬成本）太高，因為固定成本必須分攤到這麼小的銷售上。

Now in fact we are forming something in the order of 50,000 Model S per year. And showing the results of the S and the X, the interest from suppliers, anywhere from basically getting the worst team on second-tier suppliers to getting the best team on first-tier suppliers. Really a big difference.

事實上，我們現在每年大約生產5萬輛Model S。從S和X的成果來看，供應商的興趣也各不相同，從二線供應商最差的團隊到第一線供應商最好的團隊，差異真的很大。

Okay. And then just following up on that as I think about reduced complexity of the vehicle, understood from an actual line speed manufacturing perspective for the Model 3, what are you doing differently from the manufacturing process that is going to allow you to drive that ramp in production? So if I think about 50,000 units Model S, going on an annual basis, it is good, it's great. You have been making that vehicle for the past three or four years.

好的。接下來我想跟進一下，考慮到降低車輛的複雜性，從Model 3實際的生產線速度製造角度來看，你們在製造流程上做了哪些不同的事情，從而推動產量的提升？如果以每年5萬輛Model S的產量來算，那就很好，很棒。你們已經生產這款車三、四年了。

Right. As opposed to aiming for an annualized rate of turning 50,000, at 5 times that number for Model 3, it's a reasonable question to ask. There is just a lot more automation than there is for S and X. We have the Gigafactory. Of course that is a huge asset for factory powertrain, power electronics, chargers and a few other things. So that's a huge asset. Yes.

是的。相對於Model 3設定的年產量5萬輛的目標，也就是5倍於這個數字，這是一個合理的問題。 Model 3的自動化程度比Model S和Model X高很多。我們有超級工廠。當然，這對工廠的動力總成、電力電子設備、充電器和其他一些零件來說是一筆巨大的資產。所以，這確實是一筆巨大的資產。是的。

Also, we refocused most of Tesla engineering including design engineering into designing the factory. I think in the future the factory will be a more important product than the car itself. I've said this before, our goal is to be the best manufacturer on Earth. This is the real goal. I don't know if we will succeed, but I think we are making good progress in that direction.

此外，我們將特斯拉的大部分工程（包括設計工程）重新聚焦於工廠設計。我認為未來工廠將比汽車本身更重要。我之前說過，我們的目標是成為全球最好的製造商。這才是真正的目標。我不知道我們是否會成功，但我認為我們正在朝著這個方向取得良好進展。

And yes, when you think the factory, it's an enormous product, with at least [tremendous] magnitude, more complex than whatever it makes. Do you have anything you want to add?

是的，當你想到工廠時，它就是一個巨大的產品，至少規模龐大，比它生產的任何產品都要複雜。您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I might just add that we really learned a lot of lessons especially from the difficult Model X ramp, and that is something that's in our recent memory. We fought through it and succeeded, but I think in the design the Model 3 and the systems and the lines that produce it, many of those learnings have been incorporated from the beginning. So if the amount of complexity and the operations to assemble the car is dramatically reduced, the amount of operations that involve some sort of assembly craft, where there is more judgment of the operator, is dramatically reduced, almost eliminated.

我想補充一點，我們確實學到了很多教訓，尤其是在Model X艱難的量產過程中，這是我們最近記憶猶新的。我們克服了困難並取得了成功，但我認為，在Model 3的設計、系統和生產線上，許多經驗教訓從一開始就被融入其中。因此，如果汽車組裝的複雜性和操作數量大幅減少，那麼涉及某種組裝工藝、需要更多操作員判斷力的操作數量也會大幅減少，幾乎可以消除。

And a lot of these things that we could identify directly as the bottlenecks that hurt us on the X ramp, we have been able to target specifically and reduce or eliminate. So that has -- though painful, it was a helpful experience for us to get ready for Model 3.

我們能夠直接辨識出許多阻礙我們X系列生產進度的瓶頸，並且能夠針對性地減少或消除它們。所以，雖然這很痛苦，但對我們為Model 3做好準備來說，卻是一次有益的經驗。

Yes, I do want to emphasize with production ramps in general they follow an S-curve. The rate of production is as fast as the slowest component in the vehicle. And when you have several thousand unique items, it can move as fast as the least likely and worst executing part of Tesla or our suppliers. That's just the way it goes.

是的，我確實想強調一下，產量爬坡通常會遵循S曲線。生產速度取決於車輛中最慢的部件。當你有數千個獨特的零件時，它的生產速度可能會與特斯拉或我們供應商中最不可能、執行力最差的零件一樣快。這就是它的規律。

So you go through a series of constraints. You try to anticipate as many as possible. There are new issues that pop up every week and we attack them and get them to solve for schedule. But then another issue will pop up in the following week. It's schedule whack-a-mole, and if we knew what would be late now, we would have attacked it, but some of these things only come to light late in the game.

所以你會面臨一系列的限制。你會盡可能預測。每週都會出現新的問題，我們會著手解決，確保準時完成。但下一周又會出現另一個問題。這就像打地鼠一樣，如果我們知道現在哪些問題會延誤，我們早就著手解決了，但有些問題直到後期才會顯現出來。

And when you have a global supply chain you inherit a lot of force majeure risk from around the world. Actually I think that's one of the things that I think we want to do is just minimize force majeure risk. If you inherit every force majeure risk on the Earth, then of course things are going to go wrong because the Earth is big. So I think there's an increasing of a time, when we can rationalize our supply chain to minimize the force majeure risk, is very important.

當你擁有全球供應鏈時，你會承受來自世界各地許多不可抗力的風險。實際上，我認為我們想要做的事情之一就是盡量降低不可抗力風險。如果你承受了地球上所有的不可抗力風險，那麼事情當然會出錯，因為地球很大。所以我認為，現在越來越需要我們能夠合理化供應鏈，以最大限度地降低不可抗力風險，這一點非常重要。

It's always tricky, when you think about a company and reporting on a quarterly basis, even small differences in where that exponential part of the S-curve is can make quite a big impact on the quarter. If you can imagine datelines moving around an exponential curve, just small changes here and there, have quite a big effect. And then things get more predictable as you get to the flat part of the S-curve, the top of the S-curve. It's a lot easier to predict, to say what things would be next year or the end of this year as opposed to what they would be month by month this year.

這總是很棘手，當你考慮一家公司並按季度報告時，即使是S曲線指數部分的微小差異，也可能對季度產生相當大的影響。想像一下，日期線在指數曲線上移動，即使是這裡或那裡的微小變化，也會產生相當大的影響。當你到達S曲線的平坦部分，也就是S曲線的頂部時，情況會變得更可預測。預測明年或今年年底的情況要容易得多，而不是預測今年每個月的情況。

Understood. Thank you very much, gentlemen.

明白了。非常感謝各位。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的Ryan Brinkman。您的電話現在可以接通了。

Thanks for taking my question. Just regarding the explanation on the shareholder letter that you experienced little autopilot revenue, a little new revenue in 4Q. Can you talk about delayed the latest software updates into 1Q? Was it the switch from Mobileye in any way? And then talk about how the current capabilities of autopilot in 1Q in terms of performance and safety, how that's better than maybe what was offered previously?

感謝您回答我的問題。關於股東信中提到的，你們在第四季自動駕駛業務收入很少，新增收入很少。能談談最新的軟體更新延到第一季的原因嗎？這是否與從Mobileye轉移過來有關？然後，您能談談第一季自動駕駛功能在性能和安全性方面的表現，以及它比之前的版本有哪些改進嗎？

Yes, we had some challenges in the transition from Mobileye to Tesla software running on GPU. The original plan was to have a migration strategy where we have Mobileye and Tesla Vision operating at the same time to have this kind of a smooth process, but Mobileye did not -- refused to do that so that forced us to re-spin the board and caused unexpected delays, where we had to basically leave our trip on the board [and of course to look on] on Tesla Vision.

是的，在從 Mobileye 過渡到運行在 GPU 上的 Tesla 軟體的過程中，我們遇到了一些挑戰。最初的計劃是製定一個遷移策略，讓 Mobileye 和 Tesla Vision 同時運行，以確保流程順利進行，但 Mobileye 拒絕這樣做，這迫使我們重新設計開發板，並造成了意外的延誤，我們不得不將開發板上的行程（當然，也包括 Tesla Vision 上的行程）全部擱置。

They say safety is always our primary concern so really we could have released Tesla Vision, including orders there at high speed, three months ago -- I was driving it at high speed personally three months ago. But I think we want to just have an exhaustive testing process, a process before enabling that to drop the fleet. We've been edging our way up there gradually.

他們說安全始終是我們的首要考慮，所以我們三個月前就應該發布特斯拉Vision，包括高速行駛的訂單——三個月前我親自高速駕駛過它。但我認為我們只是想進行一個詳盡的測試過程，一個在正式投入使用之前進行測試的過程。我們一直在逐步推進這個目標。

Longitudinal control, traffic aware cruise control is at 80 miles an hour. And [auto steer] 50 miles an hour and I think we should be able to get -- at least the car anyways -- unless testing shows something different, we should be able to get them both around the maybe 85 miles an hour next month. And be at a parity with [Hogle] one. And then lots of things will only improve from there. So that's --

縱向控制、交通感知巡航控制的速度是每小時80英哩。自動駕駛的速度是每小時50英里。我認為我們應該能夠——至少汽車是這樣的——除非測試結果顯示不同，否則下個月我們應該能夠讓它們的速度都達到每小時85英里左右。與[Hogle]的速率相當。然後很多事情都會從那裡開始改進。所以…

Great to hear. Last question on the $500 million cash generation outlook including growth of nonrecourse debt. How much of that relates to the automotive operations versus SolarCity? Or maybe you probably don't want to break it out that way. How are you thinking about the contribution from [tax] equity funding versus maybe call it combined, like, Tesla SolarCity ongoing operations?

很高興聽到這個消息。最後一個問題是關於5億美元現金流前景，包括無追索權債務的成長。這其中有多少是與汽車業務和SolarCity相關的？或者您可能不想這樣單獨列出。您如何看待股權融資（含稅）的貢獻，以及特斯拉SolarCity持續營運的貢獻？

Sure, yes, this is Jason. That commitment that we made when we closed the deal was on the Solar side. So that's what's the $500 million really is from. And it's going to come from a number of factors. One of the things we are already starting to see great traction on is a shift away from leasing systems to doing loans and cash sales of systems.

當然，是的，我是傑森。我們在交易達成時所做的承諾是針對太陽能方面的。所以這5億美元的真正來源就是太陽能。這筆資金將來自多個因素。我們已經開始看到顯著的進展，其中之一就是從租賃系統轉向貸款和現金銷售系統。

We provided some information in the letter about that, and that's going well. We've also done that on the vehicle side. And that's worth noting. And then the other thing is, is part of the acquisition we committed to $150 million in synergies. And some of that cash generation is obviously going to come from going after those synergies and we are on track to look at that. We've got lots of opportunities on customer acquisition costs.

我們在信中提供了一些相關信息，目前進展順利。我們在汽車領域也做了類似的事情，這點值得一提。另外，作為收購的一部分，我們承諾投入1.5億美元用於綜效。部分現金流顯然將來自於這些協同效應的實現，我們正在著手研究這一點。我們在客戶獲取成本方面有很多機會。

Tesla has a very strong global brand. We've got a great retail footprint. So we've got the pieces in place to really drive customer acquisition costs down. And then obviously on the manufacturing side as well, we are thinking through what that's going to do for us and how we can drive cost savings there as well.

特斯拉擁有非常強大的全球品牌。我們擁有廣泛的零售網路。因此，我們已經做好充分準備，能夠真正降低客戶獲取成本。當然，在製造方面，我們也在思考這將為我們帶來什麼，以及如何進一步降低成本。

Great, thanks for that color.

太好了，謝謝你的顏色。

Sure, no problem.

當然，沒問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Joseph Spak。您的電話已接通。

Thanks. The first question I guess relates to the delivery guidance, which I know you limited to the first half. But as we think about the full year and the back half, and the launch of the Model 3, is there the potential for disruption to S and X? Is that also one of the factors why you've decided to guide the way you did?

謝謝。我想第一個問題與交付預期有關，我知道您只提到了上半年。但考慮到全年和下半年，以及Model 3的發布，S和X車型的銷售是否有可能受到影響？這也是您決定如此制定預期的原因之一嗎？

Go ahead.

前進。

Sure. I think the way we were thinking about that is there's going to be pretty high [yield] cars when looking at the deliveries for Model 3 in the second half of the year. And I think Elon described that well when he talked about the S-curve.

當然。我認為我們當時的想法是，從下半年Model 3的交付量來看，汽車的[產量]會相當高。我認為埃隆在談到S曲線時很好地描述了這一點。

We didn't want to muddy our guidance by doing some kind of a combined number for the year, and obviously execution on the S and X and execution on getting ready for Model 3 in the first half is what is important. And those other things that I really want to point investors to and how we are administrating ourselves.

我們不想透過某種年度合併數字來混淆我們的預期，顯然，上半年S和X的執行情況以及Model 3的準備工作才是最重要的。還有一些其他的事情，我非常想讓投資人關注，以及我們如何管理自己。

Calculating the area under the curve is tricky when you're in an exponential. And it always starts out tiny. And then it blows up exponentially. Generally people have trouble wrapping their minds around an exponential. The natural tendency is to extrapolate on a straight line, and so -- and I'm sorry. It's really important to emphasize that this blowup is an exponential -- it does get into a linear zone and then it goes into a long curve.

當曲線呈指數型時，計算曲線下的面積非常棘手。它總是一開始很小，然後呈指數級增長。通常人們很難理解指數函數。人們的自然傾向是用直線進行推斷，所以——抱歉。需要強調的是，這種成長是指數函數──它會先進入線性區域，然後進入一條長曲線。

Okay. And then I guess just to follow on that, I was wondering if you guys would be willing to indicate when you think the configuration for the 3 would open? But separately also, Elon, there has been a lot of news or noise around unionization at Fremont. I was wondering if you guys could give a little bit of color on your views of potentially unionization, and if it did occur sort of how that changes the cost structure?

好的。接下來我想補充一下，我想知道你們能否透露一下，你們認為三號工廠的配置什麼時候會開放？另外，埃隆，關於弗里蒙特工廠組建工會的消息和傳聞很多。我想請問你們能否簡單談談對潛在工會的看法？如果真的成立工會，這會對成本結構產生什麼影響？

Sure. There is obviously quite a strong effort by the UAW to unionize Tesla, and actually a lot of people at Tesla that have been approached by UAW have expressed concern about this. And there was also a number of claims made by someone who I think is de facto an employee for UAW [that had] Tesla. There's one piece -- and it will probably be published in the next day or two, because I wanted to make sure I fully investigated the claims before it was published in the one piece.

當然。 UAW 顯然正在大力推動特斯拉成立工會，事實上，特斯拉內部許多接受過 UAW 接觸的員工都對此表示擔憂。此外，我認為實際上有一位 UAW 員工也提出了一些指控，而他正是特斯拉的員工。我寫了一篇文章——可能會在未來一兩天內發布，因為我想確保在發表之前對這些指控進行了充分調查。

The fact of the matter is over the last few months, Tesla's injury rate is less than half of the industry average. The [caused] allegations made. And the compensation, if you look at when we started four years ago, the best incurred [for the stock] is four years. So if you said what is the outcome for somebody who started four years ago, is by far the highest in the order industry.

事實上，在過去幾個月裡，特斯拉的工傷率不到業界平均的一半。 （由此引發的）指控。而賠償方面，如果你看看我們四年前剛入職時的情況，（就股票而言）最好的賠償是四年。所以，如果你問四年前入職的員工，他們的賠償結果在業界是迄今為止最高的。

There was an allegation that, through higher pay -- it tells they are in fact the highest paid in the industry, if you include the equity which obviously you should include it. There are really only disadvantages for someone to want the UAW here. I mean their track record is worse in every other company.

有人指控說，透過更高的薪酬——如果算上股權的話——這顯然應該算上，這說明他們實際上是業內薪酬最高的。對於想要加入UAW的人來說，這真的只有壞處。我的意思是，他們在其他公司的業績記錄都更差。

Okay.

好的。

That is likely to occur.

這很可能會發生。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy, Bank of America. Your line is now open.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰‧墨菲。您的電話已接通。

Good afternoon, guys. This is Aileen Smith on for John. First on a more high-level question, I realize it is still very early days in terms of the new Trump administration, but with Scott Pruitt now Head of the EPA, are you anticipating any changes with respect to the oversight or regulations under CARB and its relationship to the EPA? Elon, is that coming up in your meetings with the Trump team at all or any of the discussions? And how would you respond in the event that regulations and standards or the potential to generate ZEV credit for it to be altered?

大家下午好。我是艾琳·史密斯，代替約翰。首先問一個比較宏觀的問題。我知道川普新政府上任還為時過早，但斯科特·普魯特現在是美國環保署署長，您預計加州空氣資源委員會（CARB）的監管以及它與環保署的關係會有什麼變化嗎？伊隆，您和川普團隊的會議或討論中會提到這個問題嗎？如果法規和標準，或零排放汽車積分的潛力改變，您會如何應對？

Sure. It's only come up briefly and my response is that I think it will be fine to get rid of incentives and subsidies. But that should be uniformly applied to all industries. It would obviously be wrong to get rid of any sort of government intervention in sustainable energy while retaining it in fossil fuels.

當然。我只是簡單提了一下，我的回答是，我認為取消激勵和補貼是可以的。但這應該統一適用於所有產業。取消任何形式的政府對永續能源的干預，同時保留對化石燃料的干預，顯然是錯誤的。

If the principle is to get rid of government intervention, that should be uniformly applied and fairly applied. But that's the only thing. There was no -- those are my comments. There was actually no response given, but they listened to that. And that's sort of -- that's how I feel.

如果原則是要擺脫政府乾預，那麼就應該統一、公平地執行。但僅此而已。沒有——這些是我的評論。實際上沒有得到任何回應，但他們聽取了意見。這就是──這就是我的感覺。

And as I mentioned on a prior call, the reality actually is that if [electrical] incentives went away tomorrow, Tesla's competitive position would improve. Part of the reason why GM is able to sell the Bolt at the price that they are able to do, while on paper making a loss, is that their ZEV credits are worth twice as much as they are to Tesla, because they get the full retail value of reserve credits which is worth about $10,000 more to them than it is to Tesla. We get basically $0.50 on $1, when we can sell the ZEV credits, which is not always.

正如我在先前的電話會議上提到的，現實情況是，如果明天取消[電動車]激勵措施，特斯拉的競爭地位將會提升。通用汽車之所以能夠以如此高的價格出售Bolt，同時賬面上卻虧損，部分原因在於他們的零排放汽車積分價值是特斯拉的兩倍，因為他們獲得了儲備積分的全部零售價值，這對他們來說比對特斯拉來說價值高出約1萬美元。當我們出售零排放汽車積分時，我們基本上可以獲得1美元兌0.5美元的收益，但這並不總是如此。

Last quarter we were able to sell only a tiny amount of ZEV credits. Because the ZEV mandate is just already very weak. The irony is getting rid of it, would actually improve our competitive position. And ZEV credits only apply to 14 states in the US. I believe there are 14, that are applied nationally.

上個季度，我們只售出了少量的零排放汽車積分。因為零排放汽車強制規定本身就很弱。諷刺的是，取消零排放汽車強制規定實際上會提升我們的競爭地位。而且零排放汽車積分只適用於美國14州。我認為全國適用的零排放汽車積分只有14個。

And then things like the federal tax credit for electric vehicles caps out at I think only a few hundred thousand cars. And we are not far from, that point. Basically credits really don't scale to high volume or they are disadvantageous to Tesla.

像聯邦電動車稅收抵免之類的政策，我認為上限只有幾十萬輛。我們離這個目標還不遠。基本上，抵免額度並不能擴大到銷量，否則對特斯拉不利。

Even in California, which is our home state. California legislature put an income cap on anyone who can get a California tax credit, for EVs, which then excluded a whole bunch of our customers, which I think is counterproductive to the biggest manufacturing employer in California. Why the hell [do they let that stage], I do not know. It was harmful to the state.

即使在我們家鄉加州，也是如此。加州立法機構對任何可以享受加州電動車稅收抵免的人設定了收入上限，這導致我們一大批客戶被排除在外，我認為這對加州最大的製造業雇主來說是適得其反的。我不明白他們為什麼會放任這種局面。這對加州有害。

Okay, great, that's helpful. And then sort of a second question. You guys gave some helpful disclosure in terms of the vehicle order growth for the Model S and the X in the quarter. Can you talk about the order growth for the Model 3?

好的，太好了，這很有幫助。然後是第二個問題。你們揭露了本季 Model S 和 Model X 訂單成長情況，這很有幫助。您能談談 Model 3 的訂單成長情況嗎？

The last measurement that we received on the size -- the wait list in the order book was 400,000, plus or minus. Can you talk about how that's grown over the past few quarters? If we look at the customer deposits on your balance sheet actually declined sequentially from 3Q to 4Q, so how much if any of that is related to the Model 3?

我們收到的最新數據顯示，訂單簿上的等待名單數量約為40萬左右。您能談談過去幾季的成長情況嗎？如果我們看一下，您的資產負債表上的客戶定金實際上從第三季到第四季呈現環比下降趨勢，那麼其中有多少與Model 3有關呢？

Yes, sure, this is Jason. It is not related to the Model 3. We still have a number of signatures series Model X reservations, where there was just a higher deposit required for those cars. We were able to deliver a number of those in Q4 so that's the primary driver behind the total reported increase in the customer deposit's line.

是的，當然，我是傑森。這與 Model 3 無關。我們仍有一些 Signature 系列 Model X 的預訂，只是這些車需要支付更高的訂金。我們在第四季度交付了一批 Model X，所以這是客戶定金總額成長的主要原因。

Okay. And can you give any size of the order book for the Model 3, as it stands right now?

好的。能透露一下目前 Model 3 的訂單量嗎？

We are still in great shape.

我們的狀態仍然很好。

We don't report that number because people read too much into it. As Jason is saying, that is really not our concern. Yes. And [anti-sell] the Model 3.

我們沒有公佈這個數字，因為人們對此過度解讀。正如傑森所說，這真的不是我們關心的。是的。還有[反賣]Model 3。

We don't want to make the line longer at this point.

我們現在不想讓隊伍變得更長。

Yes, good point.

是的，說得好。

Okay. All right, thank you very much.

好的。好的，非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with UBS, your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Colin Langan，您的線路現已開放。

Great. In the press release you give comments on margins for the first half of the year. Any broad color on how we should think about margins in the second half particularly as the Model 3 launches? Will that be profitable day one or is that going to take some time for that to ramp? Any color there?

太好了。在新聞稿中，您談到了上半年的利潤率。請問您能大致預測下半年的利潤率，尤其是在Model 3上市之際嗎？ Model 3上市第一天就能獲利嗎？還是需要一段時間才能獲利？能具體分析一下嗎？

Hopes that it will not be profitable on day one because of that exponential issue that I mentioned. The only Model 3s will be like horribly negative margin particularly on day one, when I say literally day one. Because just at a tiny rate as you scroll up this giant machine, so like no company on Earth -- this is not a function of Tesla -- it is physically impossible.

由於我提到的指數級成長問題，我不希望它在第一天就獲利。 Model 3 的利潤率會非常低，尤其是第一天，我說的是真正的第一天。因為當你滾動這台巨型機器時，即使是以微小的速度，地球上也沒有哪家公司能做到——這不是特斯拉的功能——這在物理上是不可能的。

So you have to get the production rate to some reasonable capacity percentage of the system -- if the capacity of the production system is X, until you are at least half X, your gross margin is going to be weak. And it is going to be terrible with you are at order magnitude below -- if you are 10% of X, like or less it will be terrible. So but then it will get really good as you start to approach [100%] capacity then it gets great. And as we get to the initial phase of capacity of 5,000 a week, I would expect to see gross margins comparable to that of the S and X.

所以你必須將生產率控制在系統容量的合理百分比範圍內——如果生產系統的容量是X，那麼在達到至少一半之前，你的毛利率都會很低。如果生產力低於這個數字，毛利率會非常糟糕——如果只有X的10%甚至更低，毛利率會非常低。但是，當你開始接近[100%]容量時，情況就會變得非常好，然後就會變得非常好。當我們進入每週5000輛產能的初始階段時，我預計毛利率會與S和X相當。

And that's next year that you should get to the 5,000 per week, is that right?

明年你的周銷量應該可以達到 5,000 輛，對嗎？

Well, I feel pretty confident that we should get there by the end of this year to 5,000 a week. Now I do want to separate this from parts orders. I know a number of our suppliers are listening. It's impossible to keep -- nothing is a secret these days, it seems. Major intelligence organizations cannot keep a secret. It's like really -- who can, honestly?

嗯，我非常有信心，到今年年底我們能達到每週5000輛的目標。現在我想把這和零件訂單分開來看。我知道很多供應商都在聽。這是不可能的——現在似乎沒有什麼秘密了。大型情報機構根本無法保守秘密。真的──說實話，誰能做到呢？

So when we place parts orders with our suppliers, we've told them 1,000 a week in July, 2,000 a week in August, and 4,000 a week in September. These are parts orders. Then the parts need to arrive, and they need to be turned into a car and the car needs to be delivered to customers. None of these things occur instantaneously.

所以，當我們向供應商下零件訂單時，我們會告訴他們7月份每週1000個，8月份每週2000個，9月份每週4000個。這些都是零件訂單。然後，零件需要到達，需要組裝成汽車，最終交付給客戶。所有這些事情都不是瞬間就能完成的。

And we have what I call the term paper problem. I was a teaching assistant in college and no matter what date we set the exam paper for when the term paper was due, there was always some people that were late. It's just the way it goes. People are sometimes -- and I'm guilty of this too. Optimistic about the timing or they get unlucky or something like that so we have to set these really strict dates. And then some number of people are late.

我們遇到了我稱之為學期論文的問題。我大學時做過助教，無論我們把學期論文的截止日期定在什麼時間，總是有人會遲到。事情就是這樣。人們有時──我也有這種毛病。要嘛對時間安排過於樂觀，要嘛運氣不好，諸如此類，所以我們必須設定非常嚴格的日期。然後就會有人遲到。

But it only has to be 1% and then we either have to make those parts manually at great cost or slow down the production rate. And when I say great cost, when you make something manually, as opposed through mass production, it can be 10, 20, 30 times more than a part that's made -- is handmade as opposed to made with high rate production program. So that's essentially the -- I'm trying to give you what does the problem space look like in my head so you can at least try to model it and you know what I know.

但只要佔比只有1%，我們必須以高昂的成本手工製造這些零件，或是降低生產率。我說的高昂成本，是指手工製造（而非大規模生產）的成本可能比高效率生產程序製造的零件高出10倍、20倍甚至30倍。所以，這本質上就是──我只是想告訴你我腦海中的問題空間是什麼樣的，這樣你至少可以試著模擬一下，你也知道我的想法。

And if I knew which 1% of suppliers it was right now I would obviously take action. But I don't. Because I don't know who's going to be unlucky. I don't know who is being overly optimistic. So that's the 1,000, 2,000, 4,000, those are the deadlines we set up for our suppliers. For parts delivery, then parts get made into cars. Cars need to get delivered. Another three separate steps.

如果我知道現在哪1%的供應商，我當然會採取行動。但我沒有。因為我不知道誰會倒楣。我不知道誰會過於樂觀。所以，這就是我們為供應商設定的1000、2000、4000個截止日期。對於零件交付，零件會被製成汽車。汽車需要交付。這又需要三個獨立的步驟。

Last question. Any color on cash burn? I think last time you mentioned you were confident you wouldn't need a capital raise. You still feel that way? I think it was close to $1 billion in the quarter and it sounds like CapEx is going to rise next year. How should we think about cash burn cadence and the confidence of no capital raise going forward? Thank you.

最後一個問題。關於現金消耗，您有什麼看法嗎？我記得上次您提到，您有信心不需要融資。您現在還是這樣認為嗎？我認為本季的資本支出接近10億美元，而且聽起來明年資本支出還會上升。我們該如何看待現金消耗的節奏，以及未來無需融資的信心？謝謝。

So this is really a question of what is the risk tolerance of the Company. Or how close to the edge do we want to go? According to our financial plan, no capital needs to be raised for the Model 3. But, we get very close to the edge. So then that is probably not the best thing for shareholders on a risk-adjusted basis. So we are considering a number of options, but I think it probably makes sense to raise capital to reduce risk.

所以這其實是一個公司風險承受能力的問題。或者說，我們想要接近風險邊緣到什麼程度？根據我們的財務計劃，Model 3 不需要融資。但是，我們現在已經非常接近風險邊緣了。所以，從風險調整後的角度來看，這對股東來說可能並非最佳選擇。我們正在考慮一些方案，但我認為透過融資來降低風險或許是個合理的選擇。

Got it. Thank you very much for the color.

明白了。非常感謝你提供的顏色。

Colin, I just wanted to add a couple of points there too. On the cash receiving increase, the $1 billion in cash [on hand] but I don't think that is fully accurate. And we had $522 million in CapEx so we are investing at a very healthy rate ahead of what we need to do for Model 3. And there were certainly some timing differences.

科林，我也想補充幾點。關於現金收入的增加，我手上有10億美元現金，但我認為這並不完全準確。我們的資本支出為5.22億美元，因此我們的投資速度非常健康，遠遠超過了Model 3的預期。當然，也存在一些時間上的差異。

We talked about in our deliveries press release, we had 2,750 cars that we missed delivering them by a couple of days. So I think there is a little cross-quarter timing going on here, and it is not indicative of what cash flow from operations is going to look like in the future.

我們在交付新聞稿中提到，我們有2750輛汽車錯過了幾天的交付。所以我認為這裡存在一些跨季度的時間差異，而且這並不能預示未來的營運現金流情況。

To circle back to your point and one of the questions from earlier about what is different about Model 3. I thought maybe I'll provide you just a little bit more color on costing and this will help you think a little bit about margins on a go-forward basis too. From the very beginning of the Model 3 program, the costing of the car was front and center, and it has always been a key part of the conversation and the decisions that have been made.

回到你之前提到的問題，關於 Model 3 有何不同。我想或許我可以再跟你談談成本問題，這也能幫助你思考未來的利潤率。從 Model 3 專案一開始，成本就一直是討論的焦點，也是所有討論和決策中的關鍵部分。

It goes all the way back to first principles, as Elon likes to talk about. On a part-by-part basis we have been looking at what is the value of the commodities on that part, what's a reasonable cost to fabricate the part and what is a reasonable margin on top of it. And that's been the starting point for costing for everything that's gone into the Model 3. The other thing that is important, and we've talked about this a lot over the past couple of quarters, is just being more efficient with our capital spend and JB has done a fabulous job with this up at the Gigafactory.

正如埃隆喜歡說的那樣，這完全回歸到第一原則。我們一直在逐個零件地研究該零件的商品價值，製造該零件的合理成本，以及合理的利潤率。這一直是計算 Model 3 所有零件成本的起點。另一件重要的事情，也是我們在過去幾季多次討論過的事情，就是提高資本支出的效率，JB 在超級工廠在這方面做得非常出色。

I don't know if you had a chance to attend the event or not, but the volumetric efficiency there is quite stunning. And if you can do more in a smaller footprint, the capital required is less. And the less capital that is required to do things, the less the depreciation load is going to be on each unit produced once you get to volume production and deliveries. I just thought it would be good to add that additional color to your comments and your questions.

我不知道您是否有機會參加這次活動，但那裡的容積效率確實令人驚嘆。如果能在較小的佔地面積內完成更多工作，所需的資本就會更少。而所需的資本越少，一旦實現量產和交付，每台產品的折舊負擔就越低。我只是覺得，最好能為您的評論和問題補充一些細節。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Applying the rocket equation to manufacturing. Essentially on the rocket equation taking its mass efficiency, take volumetric efficiency of the factory, as Jason was mentioning, and X velocity of product from the factory. Kind of just slow it down pretty much just to those two things.

將火箭方程式應用於製造業。本質上，火箭方程式就是取其品質效率，就像傑森提到的，取工廠的容積效率，以及工廠產品出貨速度X。差不多就是把速度放慢到這兩點。

Got it. Thank you very much.

明白了。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson, Barclays. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。您的電話已接通。

Yes, good afternoon, just a few questions about the cash flow and CapEx and cash needs. You know first I recognize that you are now consolidating in SolarCity. But if you were just to very roughly give us what the old automotive adjusted cash flow was and try to disentangle that from the cash flow coming out of the former SolarCity, what would that roughly look like directionally?

是的，下午好，我只想問幾個關於現金流、資本支出和現金需求的問題。首先，我知道你們現在正在整合SolarCity。但如果您能粗略地告訴我們原有汽車業務的調整後現金流是多少，並將其與原SolarCity的現金流區分開來，那麼大致的方向性是什麼？

Sure, I think we put in the letter the cash generation was $70 million, about $70 million. So SolarCity was actually a cash generator for the five week [stub] period. Some of that was the cash and tax equity deals closing. So the way to think about SolarCity on a go-forward basis is prioritizing cash generation preservation over the near-term for that business. I don't anticipate any significant -- it's not going to have a significant impact on our cash position in future quarters.

當然，我記得我們在信中寫到的現金流是7000萬美元，大概是7000萬美元。所以SolarCity在五週的[存根]期間實際上是一個現金流來源。其中一部分是現金和稅收股權交易的完成。所以，展望SolarCity的未來發展，我們應該優先考慮短期內保持該業務的現金流。我預計不會有任何重大的——這不會對我們未來幾季的現金狀況產生重大影響。

Okay, and secondly the $2 billion to $2.5 billion CapEx guide, that spend, does that imply that, that is not -- couple of questions. Does that imply that is not a full year 2017 number given that production cadence that you're planning?

好的，其次，20億到25億美元的資本支出指南，這是否意味著，考慮到您計劃的生產節奏，這不是2017年全年的數字？

Correct. That is between now and the start of production for Model 3.

正確。也就是從現在到 Model 3 開始生產的時間。

Okay, and second, can you talk a little bit more about the deferral of cash out for CapEx due to agreements with suppliers, or some of those equipment suppliers, to defer payments? What are those agreements, where does that liability show up on the balance sheet? And is that a hard, as soon as they deliver a proof part, does that become due or how does the actual timing of that payment work?

好的，第二，您能否再多談談由於與供應商或某些設備供應商達成的延期付款協議而導致資本支出現金流出延遲的情況？這些協議是什麼？這些負債在資產負債表上顯示在哪裡？這是否很難？一旦他們提交了證明，這筆款項是否立即到期？或是這筆款項的實際付款時間是如何決定的？

Yes, sure absolutely. I think this is one of the benefits of having a very successful run over the last couple of years. We have developed a lot of trust with our suppliers. When I started, you would ask, okay, what our average days paid with outstanding, and it was lower than it should be.

是的，當然。我認為這是過去幾年非常成功營運的好處之一。我們與供應商建立了非常深厚的信任。我剛開始工作的時候，你可能會問，我們平均拖欠薪水的天數是多少？這比應有的要低。

And we have been able to renegotiate payment terms with just about everybody and stretch out those payables. It's not a question of not paying. It is actually we have trust and we are going with renegotiating these contracts with suppliers, and I believe we shared this data point last quarter on the call. But for the parts that have been sourced for Model 3 so far and the average payment terms is 59 days. So cash conversion cycle is something that we care deeply about and we are paying a lot of attention to.

我們幾乎與所有供應商重新協商了付款條件，並延長了付款期限。這不是不付款的問題。實際上，我們彼此信任，並且正在與供應商重新協商這些合約。我記得我們在上個季度的電話會議上分享過這個數據。但就目前為 Model 3 採購的零件而言，平均付款期限為 59 天。因此，現金週轉週期是我們非常關心的問題，我們對此非常重視。

And obviously as we head up this S-curve that we have talked about, working capital is going to be very important so we're going to have to keep a good eye on that. To sum it up, we are making great progress in stretching out our payables and we are doing it in a way that I think is productive and healthy with the relationships with our suppliers and vendors.

顯然，隨著我們沿著先前提到的S曲線向上發展，營運資金將變得非常重要，因此我們必須密切注意。總而言之，我們在延長應付款項期限方面取得了巨大進展，而且我認為我們正在以一種高效且健康的方式與供應商和供貨商保持良好關係。

Okay. So those deferred capital expenditure payments are actually in the accounts payable or is it in more like an accrued liability line? Just housekeeping.

好的。那麼，這些遞延資本支出實際上是在應付帳款中，還是更像是應計負債？只是一些日常事務。

It depends on if there's -- many payments have milestones set to them. So when the piece of equipment is actually installed and up and running. And until you hit that milestone you won't see a payable.

這取決於——許多付款都有設定的里程碑。也就是說，當設備實際安裝並運作時。直到你達到那個里程碑，你才會看到應付款項。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Our next question comes from the line of James Albertine, Consumer Edge. Your line is now open.

下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。您的電話現在可以接通了。

Great, thank you, and good afternoon, and I will just add my congratulations to Jason and best of luck, and welcome back to Deepak. If I may quickly, Elon, you mentioned in response to a ZEV question earlier, the 14 states -- I believe it was -- that sort of share these standards and allow manufacturers to earn credits, buy credits, allow you to sell credits and so forth. Understanding that to the extent that a competitor vehicle is sold in California, it counts toward their quota, if you will, in other states and that the waiver that allows that might be expiring later this year.

太好了，謝謝你，下午好。我只想向傑森表示祝賀，祝他好運，歡迎迪帕克回來。埃隆，請允許我快速說幾句，你之前在回答一個零排放汽車（ZEV）問題時提到，有14個州——我記得是14個州——共享這些標準，允許製造商賺取積分、購買積分、出售積分等等。我理解，如果競爭對手的汽車在加州銷售，那麼它在其他州的配額也會被計入，如果你願意的話，這項豁免可能會在今年稍後到期。

And I am just wondering, number one, if that's correct, if I'm thinking about that the right way? And how that would theoretically impact your business? You've talked about how sort of these $7,500 federal -- and I know I'm mixing ZEV and GHG, and so forth. But you talked about how it could theoretically be a competitive advantage for Tesla. And I'm just wondering if you could opine on that?

首先，我想知道，我這樣想是否正確？從理論上講，這會如何影響您的業務？您談到了這 7,500 美元的聯邦補貼——我知道我把零排放汽車 (ZEV) 和溫室氣體排放 (GHG) 等等混在一起了。但您談到了這在理論上如何成為特斯拉的競爭優勢。您能否對此發表一下看法？

Well it's just that in order to scale -- the ZEV advantage is so weak, less than 1% or some tiny number of vehicles in ZEV states were sold in ZEV states. We are the only ones who currently make a car in California. I do think California maybe should do a bit more for its only remaining auto manufacturer, for those to be competitive. It's weird that they seem to do more to support non-California companies than Tesla.

嗯，只是為了擴大規模——零排放汽車的優勢太弱了，在零排放州，只有不到1%或極少數的汽車在零排放州銷售。目前，加州只有我們一家在生產汽車。我確實認為加州或許應該為其僅存的汽車製造商提供更多支持，讓它們保持競爭力。奇怪的是，加州似乎對非加州公司的支持比特斯拉更多。

This maybe becomes irrelevant at scale. Tesla will have as many -- more ZEV credits than the rest of the US industry combined. So the value of them drops to a negligible number. And the simple matter of it is though, the major manufacturers don't really need to sell them either because they make whatever their puny amount of electric vehicles are, 20,000 cars maybe. We are making 20 or 30 times that number. So, you know, these things are -- they're not important at scale, because the mandate is too weak.

規模化之後，這或許就無關緊要了。特斯拉獲得的零排放汽車積分將比美國其他汽車廠商的總和還要多。因此，它們的價值將降到可以忽略不計的水平。不過，簡單來說，主要製造商其實也不需要販售這些積分，因為他們生產的電動車數量不多，可能就2萬輛。而我們生產的電動車數量是這個數字的20到30倍。所以，你知道，這些東西在規模化之後並不重要，因為強制規定太弱了。

Understood. I was getting at the fact that if the [bulk] sale in California doesn't count toward New York or something, it's weaker, it's tougher for your competitors than it even is today, so that's more what I was alluding to and I agree with you. The mandate doesn't make a lot of sense.

明白了。我的意思是，如果加州的大量銷售不計入紐約或其他地區的銷量，那麼你的競爭對手的競爭力就會比現在更弱，更難對付。這就是我所指的，我同意你的觀點。這項強制規定沒什麼意義。

Yes, they are just very weak. They will have almost no impact on Model 3. Maybe for a few quarters and that's about it.

是的，它們的影響非常小。它們對 Model 3 幾乎不會產生影響。可能持續幾個季度，僅此而已。

Okay, great. If I may on the Model 3 quickly, and I will get back in queue, the vehicle we have seen, is that a preproduction version or is that the version you plan to fully produce? If not, when could we maybe expect to see the fully sort of finished product?

好的，太好了。請容許我快速聊聊 Model 3，我稍後會繼續提問。我們看到的這輛車是預生產版本，還是你們打算全面投產的版本？如果不是，我們什麼時候才能看到最終成品？

Just to get an idea, you alluded to at the Gigafactory a couple of months ago, there is still some suppliers you want to make sure you're lining up properly to get everything ready to go for July 1. I am wondering if the revealing of the final production-ready version could be, between now and then, sort of additional catalyst?

只是為了了解一下，您幾個月前在 Gigafactory 上提到過，仍然有一些供應商您想確保您能夠妥善安排，為 7 月 1 日的投產做好一切準備。我想知道，從現在到那時，最終生產就緒版本的發布是否會成為某種額外的催化劑？

Yes. I'm not sure if it's going to make sense for us to show the final version before we start of production or after. The initial cars are -- [sort of a series] actually go to Company employees. I think it's important for us to have good [feedback loop] on the cars that we are making, and if there are any issues, bugs and things that need to addressed, that we can address those before customers experience them.

是的。我不確定在生產開始之前還是之後展示最終版本是否合理。最初的車輛—[某種程度上是一系列的]實際上是給公司員工的。我認為對我們而言，對正在生產的車輛建立良好的[反饋循環]非常重要，如果有任何問題、錯誤或需要解決的問題，我們可以在客戶體驗之前解決這些問題。

So I think in terms of showing a final version, it is probably at least a few months away, maybe as far as July itself. It's going to be pretty close to what I showed at the Model 3 unveiling. But with more polish and refinement and a few more details that are added. It will be better than what was unveiled. I guess in some ways it will be a lot better.

所以我認為最終版本的展示可能至少還要幾個月，最快也要到7月。它會非常接近我在Model 3發布會上展示的版本，但會更加完善和細化，並添加一些細節。它會比發布會上展示的版本更好。我想在某些方面它會好很多。

Great. Thank you so much for taking the questions and best of luck.

太好了。非常感謝您回答這些問題，祝您好運。

All right.

好的。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的科林拉什。您的電話已接通。

Thank you so much. Given the dependency on the Model 3 profitability and the Gigafactory, can you talk about timing for full ramp on both anode and cathode assembly? And I have a follow-up question on the debt that you drew down in the fourth quarter.

非常感謝。考慮到對Model 3獲利能力和超級工廠的依賴，您能否談談陽極和陰極組裝全面量產的時機？我還有一個關於您在第四季度承擔的債務的後續問題。

I'm sorry, you mean the full ramp to what level? To the 35 gigawatt hours per year?

抱歉，您是指全面提升到什麼程度？達到每年35千兆瓦時嗎？

No, no, because this is a modular facility, right? So you've got machines up and running. Just the first tranche of equipment that you have installed, when is that going to be up and running at full capacity?

不不不，因為這是一個模組化設施，對吧？所以你們的機器已經啟動並且運作了。只是你們安裝的第一批設備，什麼時候才能滿載運作？

They are very big modules

它們是非常大的模組

It's pretty large increments. Those will be up and running at full capacity for the first instances, within just a few months. We are already in the stages of beginning the second instance of anodes and cathodes, electrode assembly. So these are needed for the ramp of the Model 3. You can get a sense of the timing here.

這是相當大的增量。這些部件將在短短幾個月內首次投入滿載運行。我們已經開始進行陽極和陰極以及電極組件的第二階段生產。這些零件是Model 3量產所必需的。您可以點擊此處了解具體時間安排。

Two big modules, I guess, in that sense, right? Something like that.

從這個意義上來說，我想應該是兩個大模組吧？差不多是這樣。

We can think about that being kind of done in the second quarter then, is what I'm hearing you say.

我們可以考慮在第二季度完成這項工作，這就是我聽到您說的話。

First module. If you're not -- Module is all computing for -- because we actually have a module -- the battery pack is about the [sales modules] and packs.

第一個模組。如果你不是的話——模組都是計算用的——因為我們實際上有一個模組——電池組是關於[銷售模組]和電池組的。

First instance of the electrode.

電極的第一個實例。

First line -- line one of the -- it should be, yes, in the next few months operating.

第一行——第一行——是的，它應該在未來幾個月內投入營運。

That first instance would be achieving full volume. It would be in Q3.

第一個實例是實現滿載運轉，時間是在第三季。

Okay. Great. And then on the $969 million that you got in the bucket of debt activities, can you talk about where -- just break down where that came from and how much borrowing capacity you have entering the year with your current facilities?

好的。太好了。那麼，關於您在債務活動中獲得的9.69億美元，您能否談談這些資金的來源？能否具體說明這些資金的來源，以及今年在現有設施下擁有多少借貸能力？

Now --

現在 -

The debt activity just comes from draws on our asset back line and our warehouse lines. We've got a lot of cash in transit as we move through the quarters, particularly at the end of the quarters, we are making deliveries. We just want to make sure we have maximum liquidity as we close out quarters.

債務活動僅來自於我們資產儲備線和倉庫線的動用。隨著季度的推進，我們有大量現金在途，尤其是在季度末，我們正在進行交付。我們只是想確保在季度末擁有最大的流動性。

Particularly, essentially that is almost entirely a finished product in transit to a customer and to a non-customer. So it's not general corporate debt. It is just like we finished the car and it's got to be transported to a customer overseas and it may take four to eight weeks to get there.

具體來說，本質上，這幾乎完全是成品，正在運送給客戶和非客戶。所以它不是一般的公司債務。就像我們完成了汽車的製造，需要運送到海外客戶那裡，可能需要四到八週的時間。

That's right. And then that cash has been largely realized [along the way].

沒錯。這些現金基本上已經兌現了。

Yes, exactly.

是的，確實如此。

Okay and so how can we think about borrowing capacity at this point on a go-forward basis?

好的，那我們現在該如何考慮未來的借貸能力呢？

We still had incremental capacity. At the end of the quarter, we have been steadily -- we made some announcements on this. We have increased our warehouse lines, which is a way for us to pull the cash forward [on our lease portfolios], and it's gone from $0 early in the year to $300 million, and then we added another $300 million, so we've got $600 million in capacity there. And our ABL has gone from $750 million at the beginning of the year to $1 billion and to $1.2 billion. So as we to continue to build assets, we've got this ability to use them to bring cash forward.

我們的產能仍在成長。本季末，我們一直在穩步推進——我們發布了一些公告。我們增加了倉庫線，這是我們（透過租賃組合）提前收回現金的一種方式，倉庫線從年初的0美元增加到3億美元，然後我們又增加了3億美元，所以我們現在的產能為6億美元。我們的可用資產負債比率（ABL）從年初的7.5億美元增加到10億美元，再到12億美元。因此，隨著我們繼續累積資產，我們有能力利用它們提前收回現金。

And that is separate from general borrowing capacity.

這與一般借貸能力是不同的。

It's not recourse debt.

這不是追索債務。

We can take the rest of it off-line. Thanks, guys.

剩下的部分我們可以下線了。謝謝大家。

Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Frank with Robert Baird. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自羅伯特貝爾德 (Robert Baird) 的泰勒弗蘭克 (Tyler Frank)。您的線路已開放。

Thanks for taking the question. Elon, I guess this is for you. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, you have previously talked about producing 1 million units per year by 2020. And that 500,000 units in 2018.

謝謝你回答這個問題。伊隆，我想這個問題適合你。退一步來看，從更大的角度來看，你之前曾提到2020年每年生產100萬台。 2018年要達到50萬台。

How confident are you now in both of those targets. And does anything need to be done from the battery perspective side in order to reach those targets? Would you need to build another Gigafactory prior to hitting 1 million units per year in 2020, or do you think that the current Gigafactory will have enough capacity?

您現在對這兩個目標有多大信心？為了實現這兩個目標，從電池角度來看，需要做些什麼嗎？在2020年達到每年100萬輛的產量之前，您是否需要再建造一座超級工廠？或者您認為目前的超級工廠已經擁有足夠的產能了嗎？

Yes. The put forward -- you assume the average pack sizes, but if you say it is somewhere around the 60 to 70 kilowatt hour level, then you need 70 gigawatt hours to get to 1 million units. And we think that is the cell level and then we think the current Gigafactory should actually be able to do in excess of 100 gigawatt hours.

是的。假設平均電池組尺寸在60到70千瓦時左右，那麼產量達到100萬個單位就需要70千兆瓦時。我們認為這是電芯層面的，我們認為目前的超級工廠實際上應該能夠生產超過100千兆瓦時。

So that leaves probably -- a big Gigafactory 1 can manage -- it can support under probably 1 million vehicles a year plus maybe something like 30 gigawatt hours or so of storage. Depending upon how fast the storage market grows. I think the storage market is probably going to grow maybe twice the rate of the automotive business or something like that.

所以，大型超級工廠 1 號大概可以支援每年不到 100 萬輛汽車的產能，以及大約 30 千兆瓦時的儲存容量。這取決於儲存市場的成長速度。我認為儲存市場的成長率可能是汽車產業的兩倍左右。

Okay. Are you still on track, do you believe, for 1 million vehicles in 2020 and 500,000 in 2018? And then as a quick follow-up to Model 3, you had previously talked about 20% gross margin on that. When do you think that margin target will be able to be achieved?

好的。您認為特斯拉2020年銷售量達到100萬輛、2018年達到50萬輛的目標還準確嗎？然後，簡單跟進一下Model 3，您之前提到Model 3的毛利率為20%。您認為這個利潤率目標什麼時候能夠達成？

Yes. I currently think that we should build 0.5 million vehicles next year and 1 million vehicles by 2020. Yes, 0.5 million vehicles in total S, 3 and X combined, next year should -- as far as the information I have at my disposal right now, I believe that is the most likely outcome. And then with a couple more years getting to 1 million units. That seems also the most likely outcome. Yes.

是的。我目前認為我們明年應該生產50萬輛，到2020年達到100萬輛。是的，S、3和X加起來總共50萬輛，就我目前掌握的資訊而言，我認為這是最有可能的結果。然後再過幾年達到100萬輛。這似乎也是最有可能的結果。是的。

Okay. A quick follow-up. Obviously with Jason leaving, and a little bit abrupt. Obviously Deepak is welcomed back. Should we think of this as a permanent situation or how should we be thinking about the CFO position going forward?

好的。快速跟進一下。顯然傑森要離開了，而且有點突然。顯然迪帕克回來了，我們歡迎他回來。我們應該把這看作是一個永久的職位嗎？還是我們應該如何考慮未來的財務長職位？

Deepak has come back in a long-term role. This is not an interim capacity.

迪帕克回來擔任長期職務，而非臨時職務。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Cihra, Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的 Rob Cihra。

Thank you very much. Just wondering if I could ask a little more about the CapEx. I know you're talking about CapEx up until Model 3. But can you give us any kind of breakout maybe even in percentage terms looking throughout the year, how much CapEx you are thinking for Model 3 versus Gigafactory and versus Solar?

非常感謝。我只是想問一下關於資本支出的問題。我知道您說的是Model 3之前的資本支出。但是，您能否給我們一個細分數據，比如說，縱觀全年，您認為Model 3、超級工廠和太陽能專案的資本支出分別是多少？

Sure. We don't break down, we don't disclose the specifics here, but obviously Gigafactory and Model 3 are going to be the biggest investments. We've also got CapEx investments in equipment and tooling related to Model 3. But then also there's going to be a piece in CapEx on building out our service and our retail infrastructure as well. And the supercharger network. So it is the usual suspects.

當然。我們不會進行細分，也不會在這裡透露具體細節，但顯然超級工廠和Model 3將是最大的投資。我們也對與Model 3相關的設備和工具進行了資本支出。此外，我們也會將部分資本支出用於建造我們的服務和零售基礎設施，以及超級充電網路。所以，這些都是我們慣常的投資。

And solar glass, there are solar glass tiles.

還有太陽能玻璃，還有太陽能玻璃瓦。

Yes, if I could just ask one more or two on that. Solar glass tile, you are looking to start production, I guess whatever, later this year or ramp capacity. Is that a meaningful amount of CapEx for that, or relatively speaking is it not?

是的，我可以再問一兩個問題。太陽能玻璃磚，你們計劃在今年晚些時候開始生產，或提升產能。這筆資本支出是否有意義，還是相對而言不重要？

Relatively speaking, it is not.

相對來說不是。

It is pretty modest.

這是相當謙虛的。

We are talking about insane numbers for Model 3. Gigafactory. It will look huge by comparison.

我們正在談論 Model 3 的驚人數字。超級工廠。相比之下，它看起來會很大。

We will be scaling that in the Buffalo Tesla solar factory. So it is helpful that facility already exists. So we don't have to invest in CapEx for a new factory.

我們將在布法羅特斯拉太陽能工廠進行規模化生產。所以，現有的設施很有幫助。這樣我們就不需要為新工廠投資資本支出了。

Right, for something like this.

對，就是為了這樣的事。

And also frankly a lot of the equipment already exists, so it's already purchased.

而且坦白說，很多設備已經存在，所以已經購買了。

It's like [minor].

就像[輕微的]。

But it will ramp and start scaling at the end of this year.

但今年年底它將開始加速並擴大規模。

Think of it in percentages. Think of it in percentages of the Model 3 CapEx.

用百分比來思考，用 Model 3 資本支出的百分比來思考。

Yes.

是的。

Great, thanks, and if I could just ask a quick follow-up. I think someone started to ask it earlier, but I don't think it was answered, which was just if you know -- well, you know, if we knew when you were going to start opening customer configurations for Model 3?

太好了，謝謝，請問您能否快速跟進。我想之前有人問過這個問題，但好像沒人回答。我問的是，您知道嗎？嗯，您知道我們什麼時候開始開放 Model 3 的客戶配置嗎？

Probably going to be pretty close to production. We will open it internally because the first cars will go to Tesla employees. And so investors and whatnot [can know that] so that -- so we can experience any challenges before our customers do. So obviously we would do that internally. So then we would do it externally. I think it is probably three or four months away.

可能很快就會接近量產。我們會在內部進行，因為首批汽車將交付給特斯拉員工。這樣投資人等等就能事先知道，這樣我們就能先於客戶體驗任何挑戰。顯然，我們會在內部進行。之後，我們會在外部進行。我想大概需要三、四個月的時間。

Great. Thank you very much.

太好了。非常感謝。

Our next question --

我們的下一個問題——

Vicki, very quickly let me interrupt you here. So we are on the hour mark. We have a couple of more questioners in queue. Let's go into the speed round. All right, Vicki, take it away.

Vicki，我在這裡打斷一下。時間已經到了一小時了。還有幾位提問者在排隊。我們進入快速提問環節吧。好的，Vicki，請繼續提問。

Thank you, our next question is from Jeff Osborne, Cowen and Company. Your line is now open.

謝謝！下一個問題來自Cowen and Company的Jeff Osborne。您的電話現已開通。

Good afternoon. I appreciate you squeezing me in. Two quick ones, one was there a solar securitization in the quarter? And if so, large was it? And then two, Elon, I believe at the Gigafactory event on January 4, you mentioned that there was some equipment stamping tools and whatnot that needed to be put in place in Fremont. I was curious if, A, if those showed up, and B, if you can update us on what needs to be done from just a physical capacity to make the vehicle in July?

午安.感謝您抽出時間。我想快速問兩個問題：第一，本季是否有太陽能證券化專案？如果有，規模有多大？第二，伊隆，我記得在1月4日的超級工廠活動上，您提到需要在弗里蒙特工廠安裝一些設備、沖壓工具等等。我想知道，A，這些設備是否到位了？ B，您能否告訴我們，從實際產能來看，為了在7月生產電動車，需要做些什麼？

I would answer no to solar securitization in Q4. There is one in Q1.

我認為第四季不會出現太陽能證券化。第一季有一個。

And we are busy building out the stamping facility right now. The other question is not whether the stamping facility will be here -- whether the stamping facility will be here. It's going to be here well in advance of the Model 3. But the question is really how long does it take to work out the bugs in the stamping line? And how many iterations does this one have to go through to get it operating smoothly?

我們現在正忙著建造沖壓設備。另一個問題不是沖壓設備是否會在這裡——而是沖壓設備是否會在這裡。它將在Model 3投產前很久就在這裡。但真正的問題是，解決沖壓生產線上的問題需要多長時間？這條生產線需要經過幾次迭代才能順利運作？

It will all be here and it will be a beehive of activity, and I will be personally down there looking at the line as I was when we put the Model S line. And I don't think that is going to be an issue. There are some long-lead stamping tools, the stamping dies, and there's a lot of them. And there is some sort of [fairly obscure] stamping dies. Like one die for a seat frame. That is currently along the item. Since we know about it, we are attacking it, and that is unlikely to be a schedule driver.

所有部件都會在這裡，這裡會一片繁忙。我會親自在那裡查看生產線，就像我們上線Model S生產線時一樣。我認為這不會成為問題。有一些長週期沖壓工具和沖壓模具，而且數量很多。還有一些[不太知名的]沖壓模具。比如一個座椅框架模具。目前，它正在生產中。既然我們知道了，我們就在著手處理，這不太可能影響進度。

The things that are likely to be schedule issues are things that we actually just don't know about today. If we know about it, we are attacking it vigorously.

那些可能影響日程安排的事情，我們目前還不清楚。如果我們知道了，我們就會積極應對。

Great. Thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Charlie Anderson, Dougherty. Your line is now open.

下一個問題來自查理·安德森（Charlie Anderson），Dougherty。您的電話現在可以接通了。

Yes, thanks for squeezing me in as well, just a quick one for me from me on Gigafactory. In the shareholder letter you talked about Gigafactories 3, 4 and possibly 5. It sounds like you are pretty covered with Gigafactory 1 in terms of the 1 million vehicles, but I wonder if you could speak to the strategy and thinking and timing there? And then Panasonic would be your partner on those as well? Thanks.

是的，也感謝您抽出時間，我只想快速問一下關於超級工廠的問題。在致股東的信中，您提到了超級工廠3號、4號，甚至可能是5號。聽起來，就100萬輛汽車的超級工廠1號而言，您已經做好了充分的準備，但您能否談談超級工廠的策略、想法和時間安排？此外，松下也會成為您的合作夥伴嗎？謝謝。

I think we will reserve -- keep some powder dry for those announcements later this year. This probably was not enough news for today. But I think those announcements will be really quite exciting later this year.

我想我們會保留一些餘地，等到今年晚些時候再公佈。今天的新聞可能還不夠多。但我認為今年稍後公佈的消息一定會非常令人興奮。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Let's go to the next question.

我們來看下一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅德·拉赫 (Rod Lache)。

I was hoping to get a few more points to calibrate to expected free cash flow breakeven at the Motors company. I guess there is a couple things on this. One is you mentioned that the CapEx of $2 billion to $2.5 billion is until the Model 3 launch. Could you give us an idea of what you are expecting for the full year, what the rate would be post-launch of Model 3?

我希望能得到更多數據來校準特斯拉汽車公司預期的自由現金流損益平衡點。我想這裡面有幾點要注意。首先，您提到20億到25億美元的資本支出是到Model 3上市為止的。您能否透露一下您對全年的預期，以及Model 3上市後的資本支出水準為何？

Yes, right now, like we said earlier, I think we're just focusing on our first-half guidance rather than the second half of the year. There's going to be lots of exciting things going on in the second half of the year with the solar roof and the Model 3 getting to scale and everything else, so we are just focused on that at this point in time.

是的，就像我們之前說的，現在我們只專注於上半年的業績預期，而不是下半年。下半年會有很多令人興奮的事情發生，例如太陽能屋頂、Model 3 的量產等等，所以我們現在只專注於這些。

There is obviously going to be a fair bit of incremental investment to go from 5,000 cars a week to 10,000 cars a week. But it's going to be a lot less than getting to 5,000 cars a week in the first place. We don't know exactly what that's going to be, except I'm confident it will be less because the first thing we will try to increase output, is going back to rocket equation, is to increase exit velocity of the line.

要從每週5000輛汽車產量增加到10000輛，顯然需要相當多的增量投資。但這比一開始就達到每週5000輛的目標要少得多。我們不知道具體需要多少，但我相信會少很多，因為我們要提高產量，首先要做的事情，也就是回到火箭方程式，就是要提高生產線的出口速度。

We don't know exactly where the turning points are going to be. We try to model it out as carefully as possible but there will be things that are not captured in the model. But I think in a lot of cases, we will simply be able to run the lines faster as opposed to duplicate the line. That is by far the best CapEx maneuver. It's just make it go faster.

我們不知道轉折點究竟會在哪裡。我們會盡可能仔細地進行建模，但有些因素可能無法在模型中捕捉。但我認為在很多情況下，我們能夠加快生產線的運行速度，而不是重複生產。這是迄今為止最好的資本支出策略。就是讓它運行得更快。

But I would say it's going from 5,000 to 10,000 is probably the total wild [expletive] guess. That's the right way to think about it. It's like 40% to 50% to 70% of the cost of the 5,000 line, something like that. If we're lucky and we're smart, 50 -- that's only half a gain, which obviously it is pretty awesome from a CapEx standpoint. I can't imagine it being more than about [70%]. As much as there is. JB, what do you think?

但我想說，從5000到10000，這大概是最大膽的猜測了。這才是正確的思路。這相當於5000生產線成本的40%到50%到70%，差不多是這樣。如果我們運氣好，又夠聰明的話，50%——也就是只賺了一半，從資本支出的角度來看，這顯然已經相當不錯了。我無法想像它會超過70%左右。就這麼多吧。 JB，你覺得呢？

I think that's right and it's maybe helpful to realize that a lot of the infrastructure investments to get all the way to 10,000 are complete in the Gigafactory.

我認為這是正確的，並且認識到實現 10,000 輛目標所需的大量基礎設施投資都是在超級工廠完成的，這也許會有所幫助。

That's true.

這是真的。

It is not even as if we are starting from scratch, to go from 5,000 to 10,000.

我們並不是從零開始，從 5,000 人發展到 10,000 人。

That's true. Some things will work like you can spent 10% more. Like in a really good case, you spend 10% more and have twice as much capacity. And you are like, Okay, sure. It's not great in the short term, but it's obvious, a good thing in the long-term.

沒錯。有些事情確實有效，例如你可以多花10%的錢。例如，在一個非常好的情況下，你多花10%的錢，就能擁有兩倍的產能。你會想，好吧，當然可以。短期內這沒什麼好處，但長遠來看，這顯然是件好事。

Where there were great efficiencies in the way the layout, the facility per instance, thus the word Gigafactory. So we don't anticipate needing to build much new square footage for instance to go all the way to 10,000. Even though we would be expanding the internal production lines while we speed them up and add new instances of production. But the Tesla CapEx would not be a one-to-one scaling, not even close.

超級工廠的佈局和每個工廠的設施效率都非常高，因此被稱為“超級工廠”。因此，我們預計不需要新建太多建築面積就能達到10,000平方英尺。儘管我們會在加速生產的同時擴大內部生產線，並增加新的生產實例。但特斯拉的資本支出不會是一比一的擴張，甚至相差甚遠。

Could you comment on the run rate of OpEx for 2017 for the Motors company or for the whole company?

您能否評論一下 2017 年汽車公司或整個公司的營運支出運行率？

Sure. The way to think about it is we're going to continue to drive efficiencies in G&A. We have to do that.

當然。我們應該繼續提高一般行政管理（G&A）的效率。我們必須這麼做。

In part because we can't fit people in the building. It seems like a silly concern. But it's really quite difficult.

部分原因是我們大樓擠不下人。這看起來有點傻，但實際上相當困難。

We have a real volumetric problem, a good constraint to have.

我們有一個真正的體積問題，有一個很好的約束。

Parking is one of my biggest nightmares. Where do we park everyone? We can't fit everyone so we have to make our OpEx better, because there's nowhere for people to go.

停車是我最大的惡夢之一。我們把所有人都停在哪裡？我們無法容納所有人，所以我們必須降低營運成本，因為人們無處可去。

We are at that stage now where G&A will continue to scale sub-linearly with revenue and we will continue to always push productivity. Productivity, productivity, productivity. And then we will obviously need to continue to make investments on the sales side. Even in my new ventures, I will be calling Jon and harassing him about his numbers.

我們現在正處於這樣一個階段：總務及行政費用將繼續與收入呈亞線性增長，我們將繼續不斷提高生產力。生產力，生產力，還是生產力。當然，我們也需要繼續在銷售方面進行投資。即使在我的新公司，我也會打電話給喬恩，不斷追問他的表現。

From a demand generation standpoint, we don't need to make actually any investment for the Model 3 probably for the next 12 months. So the delivery of the cars is where the investment is needed. Deliver 3 or 4 times as many cars. But we don't want to have 3 or 4 times as many delivery centers.

從需求創造的角度來看，我們可能在未來12個月內不需要為Model 3進行任何投資。因此，我們需要在汽車交付方面進行投資。交付量將增加3到4倍。但我們不希望交付中心的數量增加3到4倍。

How do we make that delivery process more streamlined, less paperwork, less bureaucracy and get people ahead of time, really well produced instruction videos for how to use their car. And well of course the best instruction -- the best thing is like not having instructions. And you will actually be able to play all of the instructions needed for your car on your car. Except you don't want to have -- you can look at that. You can look at your email or get in the car.

我們如何讓交付流程更加精簡，減少文書工作和官僚作風，並提前為人們提供製作精良的汽車使用指導影片？當然，最好的指導——最好的情況就像沒有指導一樣。你實際上可以在你的車上播放所有需要的指導。除非你不想看——你可以看看。你可以查看你的電子郵件或上車。

Sales actually, the demand generation, and then delivery of the car, that is as far as sales that is the scaling part. And then we are talking on [part of the inventions], like they were we increased the design lifetime of the powertrain from roughly a 0.25 million miles to aspirationally 1 million miles. So that should really help us.

實際上是銷售，需求的產生，然後是汽車的交付，就銷售而言，這是規模化的部分。然後我們談到[部分發明]，例如我們將動力系統的設計壽命從大約25萬英里延長到了理想的100萬英里。這應該對我們很有幫助。

I guess still trying to calibrate to this cash flow and cash needs. Maybe a different way to ask this is, is it reasonable to expect that you would hit for the Motors company free cash flow breakeven at the 250,000 unit a year level for Model 3, assuming what we know today?

我想，我們仍在努力調整現金流和現金需求。或許換個角度問：假設我們目前掌握的訊息，那麼我們是否可以合理地預期，Model 3 的年產量達到 25 萬輛時，特斯拉汽車公司的自由現金流就能實現損益平衡？

It depends on how quickly we want to ramp production to go from 5,000 a week to 10,000 a week on Model 3. There could be an argument that you don't want to go to cash flow breakeven or positive because you are losing a lot of sales. When you calculate the present value of future cash flows, then it's actually not smart to be in that case free cash flow positive. Or maybe you want to be a little negative at least, and not give up a huge number of sales because you would be talking -- the numbers get just so crazy.

這取決於我們想以多快的速度將Model 3的產量從每週5000輛提高到每週10000輛。有人可能會說，你不想讓現金流達到損益兩平或正值，因為你正在損失大量銷售額。當你計算未來現金流的現值時，在這種情況下，自由現金流為正其實並不明智。或者你至少想讓自由現金流略微為負，這樣就不會損失大量的銷售額，因為這樣一來，銷售額就會變得非常驚人。

A 0.25 million is roughly $1 billion a month revenue. And you double that and it's $2 billion per month. Again, maybe spending incremental $0.5 billion on CapEx would be a pretty smart move if it advances things by two or three months.

25萬美元大約相當於每月10億美元的收入。如果把這個數字翻一番，每個月就是20億美元。同樣，如果能將事情提前兩三個月，那麼增加5億美元的資本支出或許是一個相當明智的舉措。

It just seems like at that level of 250,000 you would be generating probably at least $2 billion of gross profit for Model 3 and if you continue this Model X rate, you are at $2.5 billion of gross from that. So even with OpEx of just under $3 billion, and CapEx of just under $3 billion, if you add in D&A it looks like it's pretty close. I understand, it sounds like it's within your control.

看起來，如果達到25萬輛的產量，Model 3的毛利至少能達到20億美元；如果依照Model X的產量成長，毛利將達到25億美元。所以，即使營運支出和資本支出都略低於30億美元，加上折舊攤提前利潤（D&A），看起來也相當接近了。我明白，聽起來一切都在你的掌控之中。

It's within our control. If we were to just level off we could be cash flow positive right now.

這在我們的掌控之中。如果我們能保持平穩，現在就能實現正現金流。

Right.

正確的。

Obviously we are in the sort of low to mid-20s on gross margin on the car. At a $10 billion a year run rate, that's $2 billion to $2.5 billion. We could definitely be profitable and cash flow positive at that level. But then our growth rate would be much slower. So it's just really like a series of overlapping parallel MPV streams, like an obvious way to look at it, I think.

顯然，我們的轎車毛利率在25%左右。以每年100億美元的營運成本計算，也就是20億到25億美元。在這個水準上，我們肯定能夠獲利，現金流也為正。但那樣的話，我們的成長率就會慢很多。所以，這就像一系列相互重疊的平行MPV產品線，我認為這是一個顯而易見的視角。

And by the way guys, it would be great to get some feedback if you think we're not making a smart move. Please tell us. We would love to hear feedback. We're definitely not going to hit the bull's-eye every time. We're going to make mistakes. So hearing feedback from you would be great.

順便說一句，各位，如果你們覺得我們的舉動不夠明智，歡迎提出回饋。請告訴我們。我們非常樂意聽取回饋。我們肯定不會每次都一針見血。我們難免會犯錯。所以，能聽到你們的回饋真是太好了。

Great. Thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Jeff Evanson.

我目前沒有其他問題了。現在我想把電話轉回給傑夫·埃文森先生。

Okay thank you, Vicki. Thank you everyone for joining today. Have a lovely evening.

好的，謝謝你，Vicki。感謝大家今天的參與。祝大家晚上愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

女士們，先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。今天的節目到此結束，各位可以休息了。祝各位今天愉快。