特斯拉 (TSLA) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Q4 and full-year 2016 financial results and Q&A webcast.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎收看特斯拉第四季度和 2016 年全年財務業績和問答網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference Mr. Jeff Evanson of Investor Relations. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係部的 Jeff Evanson 先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Vicki, and good afternoon everyone and welcome to Tesla's fourth quarter and full-year 2016 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, JB Straubel, Jason Wheeler, and Jon McNeill. Our Q4 results are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast.

謝謝 Vicki，大家下午好，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2016 年第四季度和全年的問答網絡直播。今天加入我的有 Elon Musk、JB Straubel、Jason Wheeler 和 Jon McNeill。我們的第四季度業績在與本次網絡廣播相同的鏈接的更新信中公佈。

During our call we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We will start today's call with some brief comments by Elon, followed by the Q&A session. During the Q&A, try and limit yourself to one question and one follow-up please. And press star one now to join the question queue. Okay Elon, over to you.

我們將從 Elon 的一些簡短評論開始今天的電話會議，然後是問答環節。在問答期間，請嘗試將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。現在按星號加入問題隊列。好的，埃隆，交給你了。

Thank you. First of all I would like to announce that our CFO Jason Wheeler has decided to leave Tesla in April, so the end of next month, to pursue opportunities in public policy. Jason will be replaced by Deepak Ahuja who was Tesla's first CFO and worked for the Company for more than seven years before stepping away in 2015.

謝謝你。首先，我想宣布，我們的首席財務官 Jason Wheeler 已決定在 4 月（即下個月底）離開特斯拉，以尋求公共政策方面的機會。 Jason 將由 Deepak Ahuja 接替，他是特斯拉的第一位首席財務官，在公司工作了七年多，然後於 2015 年離職。

Deepak will formally take over CFO in early March, with Jason remaining at Tesla through April to ensure a smooth transition. And Jason, would you like to say anything?

迪帕克將在 3 月初正式接任首席財務官，傑森將在 4 月份繼續留在特斯拉，以確保順利過渡。還有傑森，你想說什麼嗎？

Yes, sure. First, Elon, thanks for the opportunity. It's been a great ride. And I'm really going to miss working with all the wonderful people at Tesla. This is an [A] team. When I walked in the door I was very passionate about the mission of the Company, and today I'm even more passionate than I was on the day I walked in.

是的，當然。首先，埃隆，感謝您給我這個機會。這是一次很棒的旅程。我真的會想念與特斯拉所有優秀的人一起工作。這是一個[A]隊。當我走進大門時，我對公司的使命充滿熱情，今天我比走進那天更加熱情。

I think it is also important to say I'm looking to scratch an itch that I've had for many, many years now. I'm going to go do something in the public sector, but I wouldn't have felt comfortable about leaving if we didn't have a really good plug-in place, or solution in place, for the Company. I think with Deepak's history here on the verge of bankruptcy and everything he has gone through, he is well-positioned.

我認為說我想要抓撓我已經有很多年的癢也很重要。我打算去公共部門做點什麼，但如果我們沒有為公司提供一個非常好的插件位置或解決方案，我不會對離開感到舒服。我認為迪帕克在這裡的歷史瀕臨破產以及他所經歷的一切，他處於有利地位。

Long, long time ago.

很久很久以前。

Long time ago. Long, long time ago. He's well-positioned to take it to the next level of growth and I've spent a good amount of time with him in the past week, and he's super energized and ready to go. He's a great leader and I think I'm leaving Tesla in good hands.

很久以前。很久很久以前。他已經做好了將它帶到下一個成長水平的準備，在過去的一周裡，我和他一起度過了很多時間，他精力充沛，準備好了。他是一位偉大的領導者，我認為我將把特斯拉留在好人手中。

And Jason, thank you again for everything you've done.

傑森，再次感謝你所做的一切。

Absolutely. My pleasure.

絕對地。我的榮幸。

So let's see.

那麼讓我們看看。

I think we're ready for the first question.

我想我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

Let's dive right into the questions.

讓我們直接進入問題。

All right, Vicki, first question please.

好的，Vicki，請提出第一個問題。

Our first question comes from the line of Adam Jones, Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當瓊斯。您的線路現已開通。

First good luck, Jason, and congrats, Deepak, welcome back. Elon, a question for you on Mars. Let's kick it off with Mars.

首先祝你好運，傑森，恭喜迪帕克，歡迎回來。埃隆，火星上的一個問題。讓我們從火星開始吧。

Really?

真的嗎？

Yes, it has Tesla relevance though, so just bear with me.

是的，它與特斯拉相關，所以請耐心等待。

I admire long-term thinking but that's impressive.

我欽佩長期思考，但這令人印象深刻。

Numerous reports have suggested the new administration may be in favor of accelerating a mission to send humans to Mars. I'm curious if you think this is accurate in spirit and if launched how could this potentially change your balance of time spent between Tesla and SpaceX? Could it potentially change the rationale of keeping Tesla and SpaceX as independent companies? And this is a serious question, Elon.

許多報導表明，新政府可能贊成加快將人類送上火星的任務。我很好奇你是否認為這在精神上是準確的，如果發射的話，這如何可能改變你在特斯拉和 SpaceX 之間花費的時間平衡？它可能會改變特斯拉和SpaceX保持獨立公司的基本原理嗎？這是一個嚴肅的問題，埃隆。

Okay. Well, yes. (Laughter) When you started out I was a little curious as to how this would become relevant to Tesla. As I said before, I expect to remain with Tesla essentially forever, unless somebody kicks me out. So that remains my intention.

好的。嗯，是。 （笑聲） 當你剛開始的時候，我有點好奇這將如何與特斯拉相關聯。正如我之前所說，我希望基本上永遠留在特斯拉，除非有人把我踢出去。所以這仍然是我的意圖。

And I've been pursuing the Mars thing at SpaceX and sustainable energy at Tesla for a long time as it pertains [to it]. So I think it's going into a pretty good rhythm and yes, I don't think -- I still don't think I'm going to change my actions as a result of, you know, initiative by the administration. Although I think a Mars initiative would be amazing and really energize the public domestically and worldwide, just as the Apollo mission to the moon did almost half a century ago. So, that's probably the best -- the most I can say about that, yes.

很長一段時間以來，我一直在 SpaceX 研究火星，在特斯拉研究可持續能源。所以我認為這將進入一個非常好的節奏，是的，我不認為 - 我仍然認為我不會因為政府的主動性而改變我的行為。儘管我認為火星計劃將是驚人的，並真正激發了國內外公眾的活力，就像近半個世紀前的阿波羅登月任務一樣。所以，這可能是最好的——我能說的最多的，是的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

[Fireside].

[爐邊]。

Thank you, thank you. Just a follow up, on insurance, if your cars prove to be as much as 90% safer than other cars on a per mile basis, as I think you've alluded as a reasonable target medium-term, and if insurance companies only offer your customers, say, a piddling 5% discount versus a comparably priced car, would you consider offering a service or product like P&C insurance directly to Tesla owners from your own platform and you own stores? Thanks.

謝謝謝謝。只是一個跟進，關於保險，如果你的汽車在每英里的基礎上被證明比其他汽車安全 90%，我認為你已經提到了一個合理的中期目標，如果保險公司只提供你的客戶，比如說，與同等價位的汽車相比，只有微不足道的 5% 折扣，你會考慮從你自己的平台和你自己的商店直接向特斯拉車主提供像 P&C 保險這樣的服務或產品嗎？謝謝。

Jon, do you want to take that?

喬恩，你想拿那個嗎？

Hi, Adam, it's Jon. We're actually currently doing that. We've been doing it quietly. But in Asia, in particular when we started this, now the majority of Tesla cars are sold with an insurance product that is customized to Tesla. It takes into account not only this autopilot safety features, but also the maintenance costs of the car. It is our vision in the future that we will be able to offer a single price for the car, maintenance and insurance, in a really compelling offering for the consumer and we're currently doing that today.

嗨，亞當，我是喬恩。實際上，我們目前正在這樣做。我們一直在悄悄地做這件事。但在亞洲，特別是當我們開始這樣做的時候，現在大部分特斯拉汽車都配備了為特斯拉定制的保險產品。它不僅考慮了這種自動駕駛安全功能，還考慮了汽車的維護成本。我們未來的願景是，我們將能夠為汽車、維護和保險提供單一價格，為消費者提供非常有吸引力的產品，我們目前正在這樣做。

And this is Elon. Not to the exclusion of insurance providers but if we find that insurance providers are not matching the insurance proportionate to the risk of the car, then if we need to, we will [in source] it. I think we will find that insurance providers do adjust the insurance cost proportionate to the risk of a Tesla.

這是埃隆。不排除保險供應商，但如果我們發現保險供應商的保險與汽車風險不成比例，那麼如果我們需要，我們將 [in source] 它。我想我們會發現保險公司確實會根據特斯拉的風險調整保險成本。

And that's true, that's true. We are doing this with insurance partners today.

這是真的，那是真的。我們今天正在與保險合作夥伴一起這樣做。

Right.

正確的。

Thanks a lot.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our next question comes from the line of David Tamberrino, Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛坦貝里諾。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks. Good evening, gentlemen.

謝謝。晚上好，先生們。

Good afternoon. Evening for you I'm sure.

下午好。晚上給你我確定。

It's been a long day for me and it will be a long night. Curious as to what has changed on your end. Obviously you've got a -- made an acquisition. You've hired an individual in manufacturing from last year.

這對我來說是漫長的一天，這將是一個漫長的夜晚。好奇你到底發生了什麼變化。顯然，您已經進行了一次收購。你從去年開始僱傭了一個製造業的人。

Really moving from the Model S and X to the Model 3 ramp that you are looking for in the back half of 2017 here and 2018. How have you gone about the Model 3 development differently versus the Model S and Model X that will really be able to unlock the key to driving production much higher than what your previous ramps have looked like for new products?

在 2017 年下半年和 2018 年真正從 Model S 和 X 轉向 Model 3 坡道。與 Model S 和 Model X 相比，你在 Model 3 開發方面有何不同？解鎖推動生產的關鍵，遠高於您之前的新產品坡道？

Right. The Model 3 is designed with -- it's really designed for manufacturing. It is conservatively a simpler car than the S or the X. Some of these -- some of the indications are obvious. For example the Model 3 only has one screen whereas the S and X have two screens and two separate computers powering each screen. The Model 3 has 1.5 kilometers of wiring. The Model S has 3 kilometers of wiring so we've simplified the wiring system conservatively.

正確的。 Model 3 的設計是——它真的是為製造而設計的。保守地說，它比 S 或 X 更簡單。其中一些——一些跡像是顯而易見的。例如，Model 3 只有一個屏幕，而 S 和 X 有兩個屏幕和兩台獨立的計算機為每個屏幕供電。 Model 3 有 1.5 公里的佈線。 Model S 有 3 公里的佈線，因此我們保守地簡化了佈線系統。

A lot of the bells and whistles that are present on an S and X are not present on a Model 3. We don't have self-presenting door handles for example or buckling doors. These reduce the risk substantially in the ramp and make it just easier to scale. So I think it is going to be a very compelling car, but it's a simpler design and we also understand manufacturing a lot better than we did in the past.

S 和 X 上的許多花里胡哨的東西在 Model 3 上沒有。例如，我們沒有自動展示的門把手或扣門。這些大大降低了坡道中的風險，並使其更容易擴展。所以我認為這將是一款非常引人注目的汽車，但它的設計更簡單，而且我們也比過去更了解製造。

And we are also able to get usually the A team at the A supplier for Model 3. It's rare that we are not able to get that. Whereas for -- particularly for S and to some degree for X -- when we were trying to get suppliers for the Model S, a lot of the top-tier suppliers wouldn't even work with us. They thought we'd go bankrupt. And the IHS, I think it's called (multiple speakers).

而且我們通常也能夠在 Model 3 的 A 供應商處獲得 A 團隊。我們很少能得到它。而對於 - 特別是對於 S 以及在某種程度上對於 X - 當我們試圖為 Model S 尋找供應商時，許多頂級供應商甚至不會與我們合作。他們以為我們會破產。而IHS，我認為它被稱為（多個揚聲器）。

Basically the industry predictor for volume of the Model S predicted -- had an official prediction -- of 3,000 units lifetime for the Model S. And for a lot of the big supplier -- that the large conglomerate suppliers, they just plug that number into their predictions. They ignore what we say and then they say, well, the volume is either too small to count or the [hard cost] is enormous because the fixed costs must be allocated over such a small volume.

基本上，行業預測 Model S 的銷量預測——官方預測——Model S 的使用壽命為 3,000 輛。對於許多大型供應商來說——大型企業集團供應商，他們只是將這個數字插入他們的預測。他們忽略了我們所說的，然後他們說，要么太小而無法計算，要么[硬成本]巨大，因為固定成本必須分配到如此小的數量上。

Now in fact we are forming something in the order of 50,000 Model S per year. And showing the results of the S and the X, the interest from suppliers, anywhere from basically getting the worst team on second-tier suppliers to getting the best team on first-tier suppliers. Really a big difference.

現在事實上，我們每年正在生產大約 50,000 輛 Model S。並展示了 S 和 X 的結果，供應商的興趣，從基本上在二級供應商中獲得最差團隊到在一級供應商中獲得最佳團隊。真的差別很大。

Okay. And then just following up on that as I think about reduced complexity of the vehicle, understood from an actual line speed manufacturing perspective for the Model 3, what are you doing differently from the manufacturing process that is going to allow you to drive that ramp in production? So if I think about 50,000 units Model S, going on an annual basis, it is good, it's great. You have been making that vehicle for the past three or four years.

好的。然後只是跟進這一點，因為我考慮降低車輛的複雜性，從 Model 3 的實際生產線速度的角度來理解，你做的與製造過程有什麼不同，這將使你能夠推動這個坡道生產？因此，如果我考慮每年生產 50,000 輛 Model S，那就太好了。在過去的三四年裡，你一直在製造那輛車。

Right. As opposed to aiming for an annualized rate of turning 50,000, at 5 times that number for Model 3, it's a reasonable question to ask. There is just a lot more automation than there is for S and X. We have the Gigafactory. Of course that is a huge asset for factory powertrain, power electronics, chargers and a few other things. So that's a huge asset. Yes.

正確的。與將年化率設定為 50,000 輛的目標相反，這是 Model 3 的 5 倍，這是一個合理的問題。與 S 和 X 相比，自動化程度要高得多。我們有 Gigafactory。當然，這對於工廠動力總成、電力電子、充電器和其他一些東西來說是一筆巨大的財富。所以這是一筆巨大的財富。是的。

Also, we refocused most of Tesla engineering including design engineering into designing the factory. I think in the future the factory will be a more important product than the car itself. I've said this before, our goal is to be the best manufacturer on Earth. This is the real goal. I don't know if we will succeed, but I think we are making good progress in that direction.

此外，我們將包括設計工程在內的大部分特斯拉工程重新集中到工廠設計中。我認為未來工廠將是比汽車本身更重要的產品。我之前說過，我們的目標是成為地球上最好的製造商。這是真正的目標。我不知道我們是否會成功，但我認為我們正在朝著這個方向取得良好進展。

And yes, when you think the factory, it's an enormous product, with at least [tremendous] magnitude, more complex than whatever it makes. Do you have anything you want to add?

是的，當你想到工廠時，它是一個巨大的產品，至少有[巨大的]規模，比它製造的任何東西都複雜。你有什麼要補充的嗎？

I might just add that we really learned a lot of lessons especially from the difficult Model X ramp, and that is something that's in our recent memory. We fought through it and succeeded, but I think in the design the Model 3 and the systems and the lines that produce it, many of those learnings have been incorporated from the beginning. So if the amount of complexity and the operations to assemble the car is dramatically reduced, the amount of operations that involve some sort of assembly craft, where there is more judgment of the operator, is dramatically reduced, almost eliminated.

我可能只是補充一點，我們真的學到了很多教訓，尤其是從困難的 Model X 坡道中，這是我們最近記憶中的東西。我們奮力拼搏並取得了成功，但我認為在設計 Model 3 以及生產它的系統和生產線時，許多這些知識從一開始就被納入其中。因此，如果組裝汽車的複雜性和操作量大大減少，涉及某種組裝工藝的操作量（操作員的判斷力更多）就會大大減少，幾乎可以消除。

And a lot of these things that we could identify directly as the bottlenecks that hurt us on the X ramp, we have been able to target specifically and reduce or eliminate. So that has -- though painful, it was a helpful experience for us to get ready for Model 3.

許多這些我們可以直接識別為在 X 坡道上傷害我們的瓶頸的事情，我們已經能夠專門針對並減少或消除。因此，儘管很痛苦，但對我們為 Model 3 做好準備是一次有益的經歷。

Yes, I do want to emphasize with production ramps in general they follow an S-curve. The rate of production is as fast as the slowest component in the vehicle. And when you have several thousand unique items, it can move as fast as the least likely and worst executing part of Tesla or our suppliers. That's just the way it goes.

是的，我確實想強調總體上它們遵循 S 曲線的生產斜坡。生產速度與車輛中最慢的部件一樣快。當您擁有數千件獨特的物品時，它的移動速度可能與特斯拉或我們的供應商中最不可能和執行最差的部分一樣快。事情就是這樣。

So you go through a series of constraints. You try to anticipate as many as possible. There are new issues that pop up every week and we attack them and get them to solve for schedule. But then another issue will pop up in the following week. It's schedule whack-a-mole, and if we knew what would be late now, we would have attacked it, but some of these things only come to light late in the game.

所以你會經歷一系列的限制。你試圖盡可能多地預測。每週都會出現新問題，我們會攻擊它們並讓它們按計劃解決。但是接下來的一周會出現另一個問題。這是日程表打地鼠，如果我們知道現在會遲到什麼，我們會攻擊它，但其中一些事情只有在比賽后期才暴露出來。

And when you have a global supply chain you inherit a lot of force majeure risk from around the world. Actually I think that's one of the things that I think we want to do is just minimize force majeure risk. If you inherit every force majeure risk on the Earth, then of course things are going to go wrong because the Earth is big. So I think there's an increasing of a time, when we can rationalize our supply chain to minimize the force majeure risk, is very important.

當您擁有全球供應鏈時，您會從世界各地繼承許多不可抗力風險。實際上，我認為這是我認為我們想做的事情之一，就是將不可抗力風險降至最低。如果你繼承了地球上的所有不可抗力風險，那麼事情當然會出錯，因為地球很大。所以我認為越來越多的時候，我們可以合理化我們的供應鏈以最大限度地減少不可抗力風險，這一點非常重要。

It's always tricky, when you think about a company and reporting on a quarterly basis, even small differences in where that exponential part of the S-curve is can make quite a big impact on the quarter. If you can imagine datelines moving around an exponential curve, just small changes here and there, have quite a big effect. And then things get more predictable as you get to the flat part of the S-curve, the top of the S-curve. It's a lot easier to predict, to say what things would be next year or the end of this year as opposed to what they would be month by month this year.

當您考慮一家公司並按季度報告時，這總是很棘手，即使 S 曲線的指數部分所在位置的微小差異也會對季度產生相當大的影響。如果您可以想像日期線圍繞指數曲線移動，那麼這里和那裡的微小變化就會產生相當大的影響。然後，當您到達 S 曲線的平坦部分，即 S 曲線的頂部時，事情變得更加可預測。預測明年或今年年底的情況要容易得多，而不是今年一個月一個月的情況。

Understood. Thank you very much, gentlemen.

明白了。非常感謝，先生們。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。您的線路現已開通。

Thanks for taking my question. Just regarding the explanation on the shareholder letter that you experienced little autopilot revenue, a little new revenue in 4Q. Can you talk about delayed the latest software updates into 1Q? Was it the switch from Mobileye in any way? And then talk about how the current capabilities of autopilot in 1Q in terms of performance and safety, how that's better than maybe what was offered previously?

感謝您提出我的問題。只是關於股東信上的解釋，你經歷了很少的自動駕駛收入，4Q 有一點新的收入。你能談談將最新的軟件更新推遲到 1Q 嗎？是否以某種方式從 Mobileye 轉換過來？然後談談目前 1Q 的自動駕駛功能在性能和安全性方面如何，這可能比之前提供的更好？

Yes, we had some challenges in the transition from Mobileye to Tesla software running on GPU. The original plan was to have a migration strategy where we have Mobileye and Tesla Vision operating at the same time to have this kind of a smooth process, but Mobileye did not -- refused to do that so that forced us to re-spin the board and caused unexpected delays, where we had to basically leave our trip on the board [and of course to look on] on Tesla Vision.

是的，我們在從 Mobileye 過渡到在 GPU 上運行的 Tesla 軟件的過程中遇到了一些挑戰。最初的計劃是製定一個遷移策略，讓 Mobileye 和 Tesla Vision 同時運行，以實現這種平穩的流程，但 Mobileye 沒有——拒絕這樣做，這迫使我們重新調整董事會並造成了意想不到的延誤，我們基本上不得不把我們的旅行留在板上[當然還要看看]特斯拉願景。

They say safety is always our primary concern so really we could have released Tesla Vision, including orders there at high speed, three months ago -- I was driving it at high speed personally three months ago. But I think we want to just have an exhaustive testing process, a process before enabling that to drop the fleet. We've been edging our way up there gradually.

他們說安全始終是我們最關心的問題，所以我們真的可以在三個月前發布 Tesla Vision，包括那裡的高速訂單——三個月前我親自高速駕駛它。但我認為我們只想有一個詳盡的測試過程，一個在使其放棄機隊之前的過程。我們一直在逐漸向上爬。

Longitudinal control, traffic aware cruise control is at 80 miles an hour. And [auto steer] 50 miles an hour and I think we should be able to get -- at least the car anyways -- unless testing shows something different, we should be able to get them both around the maybe 85 miles an hour next month. And be at a parity with [Hogle] one. And then lots of things will only improve from there. So that's --

縱向控制，交通感知巡航控制為每小時 80 英里。 [自動駕駛] 每小時 50 英里，我認為我們應該能夠獲得 - 至少是汽車 - 除非測試顯示不同的東西，否則我們應該能夠在下個月讓它們都達到每小時 85 英里左右.並與 [Hogle] 平起平坐。然後很多事情只會從那裡得到改善。所以那是 -

Great to hear. Last question on the $500 million cash generation outlook including growth of nonrecourse debt. How much of that relates to the automotive operations versus SolarCity? Or maybe you probably don't want to break it out that way. How are you thinking about the contribution from [tax] equity funding versus maybe call it combined, like, Tesla SolarCity ongoing operations?

很高興聽到。最後一個問題是關於 5 億美元現金產生前景的問題，包括無追索權債務的增長。其中有多少與汽車業務與 SolarCity 相關？或者也許你可能不想那樣打破它。您如何看待來自 [稅收] 股權融資的貢獻，而不是像特斯拉 SolarCity 正在進行的運營這樣的組合？

Sure, yes, this is Jason. That commitment that we made when we closed the deal was on the Solar side. So that's what's the $500 million really is from. And it's going to come from a number of factors. One of the things we are already starting to see great traction on is a shift away from leasing systems to doing loans and cash sales of systems.

當然，是的，這是傑森。我們在完成交易時做出的承諾是在太陽能方面。這就是 5 億美元的真正來源。這將來自許多因素。我們已經開始看到很大吸引力的一件事是從租賃系統轉向貸款和現金銷售系統。

We provided some information in the letter about that, and that's going well. We've also done that on the vehicle side. And that's worth noting. And then the other thing is, is part of the acquisition we committed to $150 million in synergies. And some of that cash generation is obviously going to come from going after those synergies and we are on track to look at that. We've got lots of opportunities on customer acquisition costs.

我們在信中提供了一些有關這方面的信息，而且進展順利。我們也在車輛方面做到了這一點。這是值得注意的。然後另一件事是，是我們承諾以 1.5 億美元的協同效應收購的一部分。而其中一些現金產生顯然將來自追求這些協同效應，我們正在關注這一點。我們在客戶獲取成本方面有很多機會。

Tesla has a very strong global brand. We've got a great retail footprint. So we've got the pieces in place to really drive customer acquisition costs down. And then obviously on the manufacturing side as well, we are thinking through what that's going to do for us and how we can drive cost savings there as well.

特斯拉擁有非常強大的全球品牌。我們有一個很好的零售足跡。因此，我們已經準備就緒，可以真正降低客戶獲取成本。然後顯然在製造方面也是如此，我們正在考慮這將為我們做些什麼，以及我們如何才能在那裡節省成本。

Great, thanks for that color.

太好了，謝謝你的顏色。

Sure, no problem.

好沒問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks. The first question I guess relates to the delivery guidance, which I know you limited to the first half. But as we think about the full year and the back half, and the launch of the Model 3, is there the potential for disruption to S and X? Is that also one of the factors why you've decided to guide the way you did?

謝謝。我猜第一個問題與交付指南有關，我知道您僅限於上半年。但當我們考慮全年和下半年以及 Model 3 的推出時，是否有可能對 S 和 X 造成破壞？這也是你決定以你的方式指導的因素之一嗎？

Go ahead.

前進。

Sure. I think the way we were thinking about that is there's going to be pretty high [yield] cars when looking at the deliveries for Model 3 in the second half of the year. And I think Elon described that well when he talked about the S-curve.

當然。我認為我們考慮的方式是，在查看今年下半年 Model 3 的交付量時，將會有相當高的 [產量] 汽車。我認為埃隆在談到 S 曲線時描述得很好。

We didn't want to muddy our guidance by doing some kind of a combined number for the year, and obviously execution on the S and X and execution on getting ready for Model 3 in the first half is what is important. And those other things that I really want to point investors to and how we are administrating ourselves.

我們不想通過做某種年度合併數字來混淆我們的指導，顯然在 S 和 X 上的執行以及為上半年為 Model 3 做好準備的執行是重要的。以及我真正想向投資者指出的其他事情以及我們如何管理自己。

Calculating the area under the curve is tricky when you're in an exponential. And it always starts out tiny. And then it blows up exponentially. Generally people have trouble wrapping their minds around an exponential. The natural tendency is to extrapolate on a straight line, and so -- and I'm sorry. It's really important to emphasize that this blowup is an exponential -- it does get into a linear zone and then it goes into a long curve.

當您處於指數狀態時，計算曲線下的面積很棘手。它總是從微小的開始。然後它呈指數級增長。一般來說，人們很難將他們的思想包裹在指數周圍。自然趨勢是在一條直線上進行推斷，所以——我很抱歉。需要強調的是，這種爆炸是指數級的——它確實進入一個線性區域，然後進入一個長曲線。

Okay. And then I guess just to follow on that, I was wondering if you guys would be willing to indicate when you think the configuration for the 3 would open? But separately also, Elon, there has been a lot of news or noise around unionization at Fremont. I was wondering if you guys could give a little bit of color on your views of potentially unionization, and if it did occur sort of how that changes the cost structure?

好的。然後我想只是繼續下去，我想知道你們是否願意指出您認為 3 的配置何時會打開？但另外，埃隆，關於弗里蒙特工會的消息或噪音也很多。我想知道你們是否可以就您對潛在工會的看法發表一些看法，如果它確實發生了，這會如何改變成本結構？

Sure. There is obviously quite a strong effort by the UAW to unionize Tesla, and actually a lot of people at Tesla that have been approached by UAW have expressed concern about this. And there was also a number of claims made by someone who I think is de facto an employee for UAW [that had] Tesla. There's one piece -- and it will probably be published in the next day or two, because I wanted to make sure I fully investigated the claims before it was published in the one piece.

當然。顯然，美國汽車工人工會為將特斯拉加入工會做出了相當大的努力，實際上，美國汽車工人聯合會接觸過的很多特斯拉人都對此表示擔憂。還有一些我認為實際上是 UAW [擁有] 特斯拉的僱員的人提出了一些要求。有一篇——它可能會在接下來的一兩天內發布，因為我想確保在一篇文章中發布之前我對這些聲明進行了充分的調查。

The fact of the matter is over the last few months, Tesla's injury rate is less than half of the industry average. The [caused] allegations made. And the compensation, if you look at when we started four years ago, the best incurred [for the stock] is four years. So if you said what is the outcome for somebody who started four years ago, is by far the highest in the order industry.

事實上，過去幾個月，特斯拉的工傷率還不到行業平均水平的一半。 [引起的]指控。而補償，如果你看看我們四年前開始的時候，[股票]的最佳收益是四年。所以如果你說四年前開始的人的結果是什麼，是迄今為止訂單行業中最高的。

There was an allegation that, through higher pay -- it tells they are in fact the highest paid in the industry, if you include the equity which obviously you should include it. There are really only disadvantages for someone to want the UAW here. I mean their track record is worse in every other company.

有一項指控稱，通過更高的薪酬——它表明他們實際上是業內薪酬最高的，如果你包括顯然你應該包括的股權。有人想要這裡的 UAW 真的只有缺點。我的意思是，他們的業績記錄在其他所有公司都更差。

Okay.

好的。

That is likely to occur.

這很可能會發生。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy, Bank of America. Your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。您的線路現已開通。

Good afternoon, guys. This is Aileen Smith on for John. First on a more high-level question, I realize it is still very early days in terms of the new Trump administration, but with Scott Pruitt now Head of the EPA, are you anticipating any changes with respect to the oversight or regulations under CARB and its relationship to the EPA? Elon, is that coming up in your meetings with the Trump team at all or any of the discussions? And how would you respond in the event that regulations and standards or the potential to generate ZEV credit for it to be altered?

下午好，伙計們。這是約翰的艾琳史密斯。首先，關於一個更高級別的問題，我意識到就新的特朗普政府而言，現在還處於初期階段，但隨著斯科特·普魯特（Scott Pruitt）現在是 EPA 的負責人，您是否預計 CARB 和它與EPA的關係？埃隆，這是在你與特朗普團隊的所有或任何討論中出現的嗎？如果法規和標准或可能產生 ZEV 信用以對其進行更改，您將如何應對？

Sure. It's only come up briefly and my response is that I think it will be fine to get rid of incentives and subsidies. But that should be uniformly applied to all industries. It would obviously be wrong to get rid of any sort of government intervention in sustainable energy while retaining it in fossil fuels.

當然。它只是簡單地提出來，我的回答是我認為擺脫激勵和補貼會很好。但這應該統一適用於所有行業。擺脫對可持續能源的任何形式的政府乾預而將其保留在化石燃料中顯然是錯誤的。

If the principle is to get rid of government intervention, that should be uniformly applied and fairly applied. But that's the only thing. There was no -- those are my comments. There was actually no response given, but they listened to that. And that's sort of -- that's how I feel.

如果原則是擺脫政府乾預，那就應該統一適用、公平適用。但這是唯一的事情。沒有——這些是我的評論。實際上沒有給出任何回應，但他們聽了。這有點 - 這就是我的感受。

And as I mentioned on a prior call, the reality actually is that if [electrical] incentives went away tomorrow, Tesla's competitive position would improve. Part of the reason why GM is able to sell the Bolt at the price that they are able to do, while on paper making a loss, is that their ZEV credits are worth twice as much as they are to Tesla, because they get the full retail value of reserve credits which is worth about $10,000 more to them than it is to Tesla. We get basically $0.50 on $1, when we can sell the ZEV credits, which is not always.

正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，現實情況是，如果明天 [電動] 激勵措施消失，特斯拉的競爭地位將會提高。通用汽車能夠以他們能夠做到的價格出售 Bolt，而在紙面上虧損的部分原因是，他們的 ZEV 積分價值是特斯拉的兩倍，因為他們得到了全部儲備積分的零售價值，對他們來說比對特斯拉的價值高出約 10,000 美元。當我們可以出售 ZEV 積分時，我們基本上可以在 1 美元上獲得 0.50 美元，但並非總是如此。

Last quarter we were able to sell only a tiny amount of ZEV credits. Because the ZEV mandate is just already very weak. The irony is getting rid of it, would actually improve our competitive position. And ZEV credits only apply to 14 states in the US. I believe there are 14, that are applied nationally.

上個季度，我們只能出售少量的 ZEV 積分。因為 ZEV 的授權已經非常薄弱了。具有諷刺意味的是，擺脫它，實際上會提高我們的競爭地位。 ZEV 積分僅適用於美國的 14 個州。我相信有14個，在全國范圍內應用。

And then things like the federal tax credit for electric vehicles caps out at I think only a few hundred thousand cars. And we are not far from, that point. Basically credits really don't scale to high volume or they are disadvantageous to Tesla.

然後像聯邦電動汽車稅收抵免這樣的東西我認為只有幾十萬輛汽車。我們離這一點不遠了。基本上，積分真的不能擴展到大容量，或者它們對特斯拉不利。

Even in California, which is our home state. California legislature put an income cap on anyone who can get a California tax credit, for EVs, which then excluded a whole bunch of our customers, which I think is counterproductive to the biggest manufacturing employer in California. Why the hell [do they let that stage], I do not know. It was harmful to the state.

即使在我們的家鄉加利福尼亞州。加州立法機構對任何可以獲得加州稅收抵免的電動汽車設置了收入上限，然後排除了我們的一大群客戶，我認為這對加州最大的製造業雇主來說適得其反。為什麼[他們讓那個舞台]，我不知道。這對國家是有害的。

Okay, great, that's helpful. And then sort of a second question. You guys gave some helpful disclosure in terms of the vehicle order growth for the Model S and the X in the quarter. Can you talk about the order growth for the Model 3?

好的，太好了，這很有幫助。然後是第二個問題。你們在本季度 Model S 和 X 的車輛訂單增長方面提供了一些有用的披露。您能談談 Model 3 的訂單增長情況嗎？

The last measurement that we received on the size -- the wait list in the order book was 400,000, plus or minus. Can you talk about how that's grown over the past few quarters? If we look at the customer deposits on your balance sheet actually declined sequentially from 3Q to 4Q, so how much if any of that is related to the Model 3?

我們收到的最後一次尺寸測量——訂單簿中的等待名單是 400,000，正負。你能談談過去幾個季度的增長情況嗎？如果我們查看您的資產負債表上的客戶存款實際上從第三季度到第四季度連續下降，那麼如果其中任何一項與 Model 3 相關，有多少呢？

Yes, sure, this is Jason. It is not related to the Model 3. We still have a number of signatures series Model X reservations, where there was just a higher deposit required for those cars. We were able to deliver a number of those in Q4 so that's the primary driver behind the total reported increase in the customer deposit's line.

是的，當然，這是傑森。它與 Model 3 無關。我們仍然有一些簽名系列 Model X 預訂，這些車只需要更高的押金。我們能夠在第四季度交付其中的一些，因此這是報告的客戶存款線總增長背後的主要驅動力。

Okay. And can you give any size of the order book for the Model 3, as it stands right now?

好的。你能給出目前 Model 3 的任何大小的訂單嗎？

We are still in great shape.

我們的狀態仍然很好。

We don't report that number because people read too much into it. As Jason is saying, that is really not our concern. Yes. And [anti-sell] the Model 3.

我們沒有報告這個數字，因為人們對它讀得太多了。正如傑森所說，這真的不是我們關心的問題。是的。並且【反售】Model 3。

We don't want to make the line longer at this point.

在這一點上，我們不想讓這條線更長。

Yes, good point.

是的，好點。

Okay. All right, thank you very much.

好的。好的，非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with UBS, your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Langan 與 UBS 的熱線，您的熱線現已開通。

Great. In the press release you give comments on margins for the first half of the year. Any broad color on how we should think about margins in the second half particularly as the Model 3 launches? Will that be profitable day one or is that going to take some time for that to ramp? Any color there?

偉大的。在新聞稿中，您對上半年的利潤發表評論。關於我們應該如何考慮下半年的利潤率，尤其是在 Model 3 推出時，有什麼廣泛的色彩嗎？這會在第一天盈利，還是需要一些時間才能實現？那裡有顏色嗎？

Hopes that it will not be profitable on day one because of that exponential issue that I mentioned. The only Model 3s will be like horribly negative margin particularly on day one, when I say literally day one. Because just at a tiny rate as you scroll up this giant machine, so like no company on Earth -- this is not a function of Tesla -- it is physically impossible.

希望由於我提到的指數問題，它不會在第一天盈利。唯一的 Model 3 將像可怕的負利潤率，特別是在第一天，當我從字面上說第一天時。因為只是以很小的速度向上滾動這台巨型機器，所以就像地球上沒有公司一樣——這不是特斯拉的功能——它在物理上是不可能的。

So you have to get the production rate to some reasonable capacity percentage of the system -- if the capacity of the production system is X, until you are at least half X, your gross margin is going to be weak. And it is going to be terrible with you are at order magnitude below -- if you are 10% of X, like or less it will be terrible. So but then it will get really good as you start to approach [100%] capacity then it gets great. And as we get to the initial phase of capacity of 5,000 a week, I would expect to see gross margins comparable to that of the S and X.

因此，您必須將生產率提高到系統的某個合理產能百分比——如果生產系統的產能是 X，直到您至少是 X 的一半，您的毛利率就會很弱。如果你低於 X 的數量級，這將是可怕的——如果你是 X 的 10%，就像或更少，這將是可怕的。因此，但是當您開始接近 [100%] 容量時它會變得非常好，然後它會變得很棒。隨著我們達到每週 5,000 台產能的初始階段，我預計毛利率將與 S 和 X 相當。

And that's next year that you should get to the 5,000 per week, is that right?

明年你應該達到每週 5,000 個，對嗎？

Well, I feel pretty confident that we should get there by the end of this year to 5,000 a week. Now I do want to separate this from parts orders. I know a number of our suppliers are listening. It's impossible to keep -- nothing is a secret these days, it seems. Major intelligence organizations cannot keep a secret. It's like really -- who can, honestly?

嗯，我很有信心我們應該在今年年底前達到每週 5,000 個。現在我確實想將其與零件訂單分開。我知道我們的許多供應商都在傾聽。保守是不可能的——現在似乎沒有什麼是秘密的。主要情報機構不能保守秘密。這就像真的 - 誰可以，老實說？

So when we place parts orders with our suppliers, we've told them 1,000 a week in July, 2,000 a week in August, and 4,000 a week in September. These are parts orders. Then the parts need to arrive, and they need to be turned into a car and the car needs to be delivered to customers. None of these things occur instantaneously.

因此，當我們向供應商下訂單時，我們告訴他們 7 月每週 1,000 個，8 月每週 2,000 個，9 月每週 4,000 個。這些是零件訂單。然後零件需要到貨，它們需要變成汽車，汽車需要交付給客戶。這些事情都不是瞬間發生的。

And we have what I call the term paper problem. I was a teaching assistant in college and no matter what date we set the exam paper for when the term paper was due, there was always some people that were late. It's just the way it goes. People are sometimes -- and I'm guilty of this too. Optimistic about the timing or they get unlucky or something like that so we have to set these really strict dates. And then some number of people are late.

我們有我所說的學期論文問題。我在大學時是一名助教，無論我們在什麼日期設置期末試卷，總有一些人遲到。這就是它的方式。人們有時——我也對此感到內疚。對時機持樂觀態度，否則他們會倒霉或類似的事情，所以我們必須設定這些非常嚴格的日期。然後有些人遲到了。

But it only has to be 1% and then we either have to make those parts manually at great cost or slow down the production rate. And when I say great cost, when you make something manually, as opposed through mass production, it can be 10, 20, 30 times more than a part that's made -- is handmade as opposed to made with high rate production program. So that's essentially the -- I'm trying to give you what does the problem space look like in my head so you can at least try to model it and you know what I know.

但它只需要 1%，然後我們要么不得不以高昂的成本手動製造這些零件，要么降低生產速度。當我說成本很高時，當您手動製造某些東西時，而不是通過大規模生產，它可能是製造的零件的 10、20、30 倍——與採用高速率生產程序製造的零件相比，是手工製造的。所以本質上就是——我試圖告訴你問題空間在我的腦海中是什麼樣子的，所以你至少可以嘗試對其進行建模，並且你知道我所知道的。

And if I knew which 1% of suppliers it was right now I would obviously take action. But I don't. Because I don't know who's going to be unlucky. I don't know who is being overly optimistic. So that's the 1,000, 2,000, 4,000, those are the deadlines we set up for our suppliers. For parts delivery, then parts get made into cars. Cars need to get delivered. Another three separate steps.

如果我知道現在是哪 1% 的供應商，我顯然會採取行動。但我沒有。因為我不知道誰會倒霉。不知道是誰過於樂觀了。所以那是 1,000、2,000、4,000，這些是我們為供應商設定的最後期限。對於零件交付，然後將零件製成汽車。汽車需要送貨上門。另外三個單獨的步驟。

Last question. Any color on cash burn? I think last time you mentioned you were confident you wouldn't need a capital raise. You still feel that way? I think it was close to $1 billion in the quarter and it sounds like CapEx is going to rise next year. How should we think about cash burn cadence and the confidence of no capital raise going forward? Thank you.

最後一個問題。燒錢有顏色嗎？我想你上次提到你有信心你不需要籌集資金。你還有這種感覺嗎？我認為本季度接近 10 億美元，聽起來明年資本支出會增加。我們應該如何看待燒錢節奏和未來不籌集資金的信心？謝謝你。

So this is really a question of what is the risk tolerance of the Company. Or how close to the edge do we want to go? According to our financial plan, no capital needs to be raised for the Model 3. But, we get very close to the edge. So then that is probably not the best thing for shareholders on a risk-adjusted basis. So we are considering a number of options, but I think it probably makes sense to raise capital to reduce risk.

所以這實際上是一個公司的風險承受能力的問題。或者我們想離邊緣多近？根據我們的財務計劃，Model 3 不需要籌集資金。但是，我們已經非常接近邊緣了。因此，在風險調整的基礎上，這對股東來說可能不是最好的事情。因此，我們正在考慮多種選擇，但我認為籌集資金以降低風險可能是有意義的。

Got it. Thank you very much for the color.

知道了。非常感謝你的顏色。

Colin, I just wanted to add a couple of points there too. On the cash receiving increase, the $1 billion in cash [on hand] but I don't think that is fully accurate. And we had $522 million in CapEx so we are investing at a very healthy rate ahead of what we need to do for Model 3. And there were certainly some timing differences.

Colin，我也想在這裡補充幾點。關於現金接收增加，[手頭] 10 億美元現金，但我認為這並不完全準確。我們有 5.22 億美元的資本支出，所以我們在為 Model 3 做之前以非常健康的速度進行投資。而且肯定存在一些時間差異。

We talked about in our deliveries press release, we had 2,750 cars that we missed delivering them by a couple of days. So I think there is a little cross-quarter timing going on here, and it is not indicative of what cash flow from operations is going to look like in the future.

我們在交付新聞稿中談到，我們有 2,750 輛汽車在幾天之內錯過了交付。所以我認為這裡有一點跨季度的時間安排，這並不能說明未來的運營現金流會是什麼樣子。

To circle back to your point and one of the questions from earlier about what is different about Model 3. I thought maybe I'll provide you just a little bit more color on costing and this will help you think a little bit about margins on a go-forward basis too. From the very beginning of the Model 3 program, the costing of the car was front and center, and it has always been a key part of the conversation and the decisions that have been made.

回到你的觀點和前面提到的關於 Model 3 有什麼不同的問題。我想也許我會為你提供更多關於成本計算的顏色，這將幫助你思考一下利潤率前進的基礎。從 Model 3 項目的一開始，汽車的成本計算就處於首要位置，它一直是對話和做出決定的關鍵部分。

It goes all the way back to first principles, as Elon likes to talk about. On a part-by-part basis we have been looking at what is the value of the commodities on that part, what's a reasonable cost to fabricate the part and what is a reasonable margin on top of it. And that's been the starting point for costing for everything that's gone into the Model 3. The other thing that is important, and we've talked about this a lot over the past couple of quarters, is just being more efficient with our capital spend and JB has done a fabulous job with this up at the Gigafactory.

正如埃隆喜歡談論的那樣，它一直追溯到第一原則。在逐個部分的基礎上，我們一直在研究該部分的商品價值是多少，製造該部分的合理成本是多少，以及除此之外的合理利潤是多少。這就是 Model 3 中所有部件的成本計算的起點。另一件重要的事情，我們在過去幾個季度中已經討論了很多，就是提高我們的資本支出效率和JB 在 Gigafactory 的這方面做得非常出色。

I don't know if you had a chance to attend the event or not, but the volumetric efficiency there is quite stunning. And if you can do more in a smaller footprint, the capital required is less. And the less capital that is required to do things, the less the depreciation load is going to be on each unit produced once you get to volume production and deliveries. I just thought it would be good to add that additional color to your comments and your questions.

我不知道你是否有機會參加這次活動，但那裡的容積效率相當驚人。如果您可以在更小的佔地面積內做更多的事情，那麼所需的資金就會更少。而且，做事所需的資本越少，一旦實現批量生產和交付，每個生產單位的折舊負擔就越少。我只是認為在您的評論和問題中添加額外的顏色會很好。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Applying the rocket equation to manufacturing. Essentially on the rocket equation taking its mass efficiency, take volumetric efficiency of the factory, as Jason was mentioning, and X velocity of product from the factory. Kind of just slow it down pretty much just to those two things.

將火箭方程式應用於製造業。本質上，火箭方程採用質量效率，採用工廠的體積效率，正如 Jason 提到的，以及工廠產品的 X 速度。只是為了這兩件事而放慢速度。

Got it. Thank you very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson, Barclays. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。你的線路是開放的。

Yes, good afternoon, just a few questions about the cash flow and CapEx and cash needs. You know first I recognize that you are now consolidating in SolarCity. But if you were just to very roughly give us what the old automotive adjusted cash flow was and try to disentangle that from the cash flow coming out of the former SolarCity, what would that roughly look like directionally?

是的，下午好，關於現金流、資本支出和現金需求的幾個問題。您首先知道我認識到您現在正在整合 SolarCity。但是，如果您只是非常粗略地告訴我們舊汽車調整後的現金流量是多少，並試圖將其與來自前 SolarCity 的現金流量分離開來，那在方向上大致會是什麼樣子？

Sure, I think we put in the letter the cash generation was $70 million, about $70 million. So SolarCity was actually a cash generator for the five week [stub] period. Some of that was the cash and tax equity deals closing. So the way to think about SolarCity on a go-forward basis is prioritizing cash generation preservation over the near-term for that business. I don't anticipate any significant -- it's not going to have a significant impact on our cash position in future quarters.

當然，我認為我們在信中提到的現金產生是 7000 萬美元，大約 7000 萬美元。所以 SolarCity 實際上是五週 [stub] 期間的現金發生器。其中一些是現金和稅收股權交易的結束。因此，在前進的基礎上考慮 SolarCity 的方式是優先考慮該業務的短期現金生成保存。我預計不會有任何重大影響——它不會對我們未來幾個季度的現金狀況產生重大影響。

Okay, and secondly the $2 billion to $2.5 billion CapEx guide, that spend, does that imply that, that is not -- couple of questions. Does that imply that is not a full year 2017 number given that production cadence that you're planning?

好的，其次是 20 億至 25 億美元的資本支出指南，即支出，這是否意味著，這不是 - 幾個問題。考慮到您計劃的生產節奏，這是否意味著這不是 2017 年的全年數字？

Correct. That is between now and the start of production for Model 3.

正確的。那是從現在到 Model 3 開始生產之間的時間。

Okay, and second, can you talk a little bit more about the deferral of cash out for CapEx due to agreements with suppliers, or some of those equipment suppliers, to defer payments? What are those agreements, where does that liability show up on the balance sheet? And is that a hard, as soon as they deliver a proof part, does that become due or how does the actual timing of that payment work?

好的，其次，您能否多談談由於與供應商或其中一些設備供應商達成的延期付款協議而推遲支付資本支出的現金？這些協議是什麼，該負債在資產負債表上的什麼位置顯示？一旦他們提供了證明部分，這是否很難，或者該付款的實際時間如何運作？

Yes, sure absolutely. I think this is one of the benefits of having a very successful run over the last couple of years. We have developed a lot of trust with our suppliers. When I started, you would ask, okay, what our average days paid with outstanding, and it was lower than it should be.

是的，當然。我認為這是在過去幾年中非常成功的運行的好處之一。我們與供應商建立了很多信任。當我開始時，你會問，好吧，我們的平均天數是多少，低於應有的水平。

And we have been able to renegotiate payment terms with just about everybody and stretch out those payables. It's not a question of not paying. It is actually we have trust and we are going with renegotiating these contracts with suppliers, and I believe we shared this data point last quarter on the call. But for the parts that have been sourced for Model 3 so far and the average payment terms is 59 days. So cash conversion cycle is something that we care deeply about and we are paying a lot of attention to.

我們已經能夠與幾乎每個人重新談判付款條件並延長這些應付賬款。這不是不付錢的問題。實際上，我們有信任，我們正在與供應商重新談判這些合同，我相信我們在上個季度的電話會議上分享了這個數據點。但對於迄今為止為 Model 3 採購的零件，平均付款期限為 59 天。因此，現金轉換週期是我們非常關心並且非常關注的事情。

And obviously as we head up this S-curve that we have talked about, working capital is going to be very important so we're going to have to keep a good eye on that. To sum it up, we are making great progress in stretching out our payables and we are doing it in a way that I think is productive and healthy with the relationships with our suppliers and vendors.

顯然，當我們沿著我們談到的這條 S 曲線前進時，營運資金將非常重要，因此我們必須密切關注這一點。總而言之，我們在擴展應付賬款方面取得了很大進展，而且我們正在以一種我認為與我們的供應商和供應商的關係富有成效和健康的方式來做這件事。

Okay. So those deferred capital expenditure payments are actually in the accounts payable or is it in more like an accrued liability line? Just housekeeping.

好的。那麼這些遞延資本支出支付實際上是在應付賬款中，還是更像是應計負債線？只管家務。

It depends on if there's -- many payments have milestones set to them. So when the piece of equipment is actually installed and up and running. And until you hit that milestone you won't see a payable.

這取決於是否有 - 許多付款都設置了里程碑。因此，當設備實際安裝並啟動並運行時。在你達到那個里程碑之前，你不會看到應付賬款。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Our next question comes from the line of James Albertine, Consumer Edge. Your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自消費者邊緣的 James Albertine。您的線路現已開通。

Great, thank you, and good afternoon, and I will just add my congratulations to Jason and best of luck, and welcome back to Deepak. If I may quickly, Elon, you mentioned in response to a ZEV question earlier, the 14 states -- I believe it was -- that sort of share these standards and allow manufacturers to earn credits, buy credits, allow you to sell credits and so forth. Understanding that to the extent that a competitor vehicle is sold in California, it counts toward their quota, if you will, in other states and that the waiver that allows that might be expiring later this year.

太好了，謝謝你，下午好，我將祝賀 Jason 並祝你好運，歡迎回到 Deepak。如果我可以很快，埃隆，你之前在回答 ZEV 問題時提到，14 個州——我相信是——共享這些標準，並允許製造商獲得積分、購買積分、允許你出售積分和等等。了解如果競爭對手的車輛在加利福尼亞州銷售，它會計入他們的配額，如果你願意的話，在其他州，並且允許的豁免可能會在今年晚些時候到期。

And I am just wondering, number one, if that's correct, if I'm thinking about that the right way? And how that would theoretically impact your business? You've talked about how sort of these $7,500 federal -- and I know I'm mixing ZEV and GHG, and so forth. But you talked about how it could theoretically be a competitive advantage for Tesla. And I'm just wondering if you could opine on that?

我只是想知道，第一，如果那是正確的，我是否以正確的方式思考？從理論上講，這將如何影響您的業務？你已經談到了這些 7,500 美元的聯邦費用——我知道我正在混合 ZEV 和 GHG，等等。但你談到了它在理論上如何成為特斯拉的競爭優勢。我只是想知道你是否可以對此發表意見？

Well it's just that in order to scale -- the ZEV advantage is so weak, less than 1% or some tiny number of vehicles in ZEV states were sold in ZEV states. We are the only ones who currently make a car in California. I do think California maybe should do a bit more for its only remaining auto manufacturer, for those to be competitive. It's weird that they seem to do more to support non-California companies than Tesla.

好吧，只是為了擴大規模——ZEV 的優勢是如此微弱，在 ZEV 州只有不到 1% 或少數車輛在 ZEV 州售出。我們是目前唯一在加利福尼亞製造汽車的公司。我確實認為加利福尼亞可能應該為它唯一剩下的汽車製造商做更多的事情，讓那些具有競爭力的人。奇怪的是，他們在支持非加州公司方面似乎比特斯拉做得更多。

This maybe becomes irrelevant at scale. Tesla will have as many -- more ZEV credits than the rest of the US industry combined. So the value of them drops to a negligible number. And the simple matter of it is though, the major manufacturers don't really need to sell them either because they make whatever their puny amount of electric vehicles are, 20,000 cars maybe. We are making 20 or 30 times that number. So, you know, these things are -- they're not important at scale, because the mandate is too weak.

這可能在規模上變得無關緊要。特斯拉的 ZEV 積分將比美國其他行業的總和還要多。因此它們的價值下降到可以忽略不計的數字。不過，簡單的事情是，主要製造商也不需要出售它們，因為他們生產的電動汽車數量很少，可能有 20,000 輛。我們的收入是這個數字的 20 或 30 倍。所以，你知道，這些事情 - 它們在規模上並不重要，因為授權太弱了。

Understood. I was getting at the fact that if the [bulk] sale in California doesn't count toward New York or something, it's weaker, it's tougher for your competitors than it even is today, so that's more what I was alluding to and I agree with you. The mandate doesn't make a lot of sense.

明白了。我的理解是，如果加利福尼亞的 [批量] 銷售不計入紐約或其他地方，它會更弱，對你的競爭對手來說甚至比今天更艱難，所以這就是我所暗示的，我同意與你。委託沒有多大意義。

Yes, they are just very weak. They will have almost no impact on Model 3. Maybe for a few quarters and that's about it.

是的，他們只是非常虛弱。它們對 Model 3 幾乎沒有影響。也許會持續幾個季度，僅此而已。

Okay, great. If I may on the Model 3 quickly, and I will get back in queue, the vehicle we have seen, is that a preproduction version or is that the version you plan to fully produce? If not, when could we maybe expect to see the fully sort of finished product?

好，太棒了。如果我可以快速上 Model 3，我會重新排隊，我們看到的車輛，是預生產版本還是你計劃完全生產的版本？如果沒有，我們什麼時候才能看到完整的成品？

Just to get an idea, you alluded to at the Gigafactory a couple of months ago, there is still some suppliers you want to make sure you're lining up properly to get everything ready to go for July 1. I am wondering if the revealing of the final production-ready version could be, between now and then, sort of additional catalyst?

只是為了得到一個想法，幾個月前你在 Gigafactory 提到過，仍然有一些供應商你想確保你正確地排隊，以便為 7 月 1 日做好一切準備。我想知道是否透露從現在到那時，最終的生產就緒版本可能是某種額外的催化劑？

Yes. I'm not sure if it's going to make sense for us to show the final version before we start of production or after. The initial cars are -- [sort of a series] actually go to Company employees. I think it's important for us to have good [feedback loop] on the cars that we are making, and if there are any issues, bugs and things that need to addressed, that we can address those before customers experience them.

是的。我不確定在開始製作之前或之後展示最終版本是否有意義。最初的汽車是—— [某種系列] 實際上是給公司員工的。我認為對我們製造的汽車有良好的[反饋循環]很重要，如果有任何問題、錯誤和需要解決的事情，我們可以在客戶體驗之前解決這些問題。

So I think in terms of showing a final version, it is probably at least a few months away, maybe as far as July itself. It's going to be pretty close to what I showed at the Model 3 unveiling. But with more polish and refinement and a few more details that are added. It will be better than what was unveiled. I guess in some ways it will be a lot better.

所以我認為就展示最終版本而言，可能至少需要幾個月的時間，甚至可能要到 7 月份。這將非常接近我在 Model 3 揭幕時展示的內容。但是隨著更多的拋光和改進以及更多的細節被添加。它會比公開的更好。我想在某些方面它會好很多。

Great. Thank you so much for taking the questions and best of luck.

偉大的。非常感謝您提出問題並祝您好運。

All right.

好的。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Colin Rusch。你的線路是開放的。

Thank you so much. Given the dependency on the Model 3 profitability and the Gigafactory, can you talk about timing for full ramp on both anode and cathode assembly? And I have a follow-up question on the debt that you drew down in the fourth quarter.

太感謝了。鑑於對 Model 3 盈利能力和 Gigafactory 的依賴，您能否談談陽極和陰極組件全面升溫的時間安排？我有一個關於你在第四季度提取的債務的後續問題。

I'm sorry, you mean the full ramp to what level? To the 35 gigawatt hours per year?

對不起，你的意思是完全坡道到什麼水平？到每年 35 吉瓦時？

No, no, because this is a modular facility, right? So you've got machines up and running. Just the first tranche of equipment that you have installed, when is that going to be up and running at full capacity?

不，不，因為這是一個模塊化設施，對吧？所以你已經啟動並運行了機器。只是您安裝的第一批設備，什麼時候可以啟動並滿負荷運行？

They are very big modules

它們是非常大的模塊

It's pretty large increments. Those will be up and running at full capacity for the first instances, within just a few months. We are already in the stages of beginning the second instance of anodes and cathodes, electrode assembly. So these are needed for the ramp of the Model 3. You can get a sense of the timing here.

這是相當大的增量。這些將在短短幾個月內啟動並在第一個實例中滿負荷運行。我們已經處於開始陽極和陰極，電極組件的第二個實例的階段。因此，Model 3 的爬坡需要這些。您可以在這裡了解時機。

Two big modules, I guess, in that sense, right? Something like that.

從這個意義上說，我猜是兩個大模塊，對吧？類似的東西。

We can think about that being kind of done in the second quarter then, is what I'm hearing you say.

我們可以考慮在第二季度完成，這就是我聽到你所說的。

First module. If you're not -- Module is all computing for -- because we actually have a module -- the battery pack is about the [sales modules] and packs.

第一個模塊。如果你不是——模塊全部用於計算——因為我們實際上有一個模塊——電池組是關於[銷售模塊]和電池組的。

First instance of the electrode.

電極的第一個實例。

First line -- line one of the -- it should be, yes, in the next few months operating.

第一行——其中一條——應該是，是的，在接下來的幾個月內運營。

That first instance would be achieving full volume. It would be in Q3.

第一個實例將實現全音量。應該是在第三季度。

Okay. Great. And then on the $969 million that you got in the bucket of debt activities, can you talk about where -- just break down where that came from and how much borrowing capacity you have entering the year with your current facilities?

好的。偉大的。然後關於你在債務活動中獲得的 9.69 億美元，你能談談從哪裡來 - 只是分解一下這些來自哪裡，以及你進入這一年的現有貸款能力有多少？

Now --

現在 -

The debt activity just comes from draws on our asset back line and our warehouse lines. We've got a lot of cash in transit as we move through the quarters, particularly at the end of the quarters, we are making deliveries. We just want to make sure we have maximum liquidity as we close out quarters.

債務活動僅來自對我們的資產支持線和我們的倉庫線的提款。當我們通過季度，特別是在季度末時，我們有大量的現金在運輸中，我們正在交付。我們只是想確保我們在結束季度時擁有最大的流動性。

Particularly, essentially that is almost entirely a finished product in transit to a customer and to a non-customer. So it's not general corporate debt. It is just like we finished the car and it's got to be transported to a customer overseas and it may take four to eight weeks to get there.

特別是，從本質上講，這幾乎完全是在向客戶和非客戶運輸的成品。所以這不是一般的公司債務。就像我們完成了汽車，必須將其運送給海外客戶，可能需要四到八週才能到達那裡。

That's right. And then that cash has been largely realized [along the way].

這是正確的。然後，這筆現金已經在很大程度上實現了[一路走來]。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Okay and so how can we think about borrowing capacity at this point on a go-forward basis?

好的，那麼我們如何在這一點上考慮借貸能力呢？

We still had incremental capacity. At the end of the quarter, we have been steadily -- we made some announcements on this. We have increased our warehouse lines, which is a way for us to pull the cash forward [on our lease portfolios], and it's gone from $0 early in the year to $300 million, and then we added another $300 million, so we've got $600 million in capacity there. And our ABL has gone from $750 million at the beginning of the year to $1 billion and to $1.2 billion. So as we to continue to build assets, we've got this ability to use them to bring cash forward.

我們仍然有增量容量。在本季度末，我們一直在穩步 - 我們就此發布了一些公告。我們增加了我們的倉庫線，這是我們將現金（在我們的租賃組合中）提前提取的一種方式，它從年初的 0 美元增加到 3 億美元，然後我們又增加了 3 億美元，所以我們已經在那裡獲得了 6 億美元的產能。我們的 ABL 已經從年初的 7.5 億美元增加到 10 億美元和 12 億美元。因此，當我們繼續建立資產時，我們有能力利用它們來帶來現金。

And that is separate from general borrowing capacity.

這與一般借貸能力是分開的。

It's not recourse debt.

不是追索債。

We can take the rest of it off-line. Thanks, guys.

我們可以將其餘部分脫機。多謝你們。

Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Frank with Robert Baird. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tyler Frank 和 Robert Baird。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks for taking the question. Elon, I guess this is for you. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, you have previously talked about producing 1 million units per year by 2020. And that 500,000 units in 2018.

感謝您提出問題。埃隆，我想這是給你的。退後一步，放眼大局，您之前曾談到到 2020 年每年生產 100 萬台。而 2018 年將達到 500,000 台。

How confident are you now in both of those targets. And does anything need to be done from the battery perspective side in order to reach those targets? Would you need to build another Gigafactory prior to hitting 1 million units per year in 2020, or do you think that the current Gigafactory will have enough capacity?

你現在對這兩個目標有多自信。為了達到這些目標，是否需要從電池角度做任何事情？您是否需要在 2020 年達到每年 100 萬台之前建造另一個 Gigafactory，或者您認為目前的 Gigafactory 是否有足夠的產能？

Yes. The put forward -- you assume the average pack sizes, but if you say it is somewhere around the 60 to 70 kilowatt hour level, then you need 70 gigawatt hours to get to 1 million units. And we think that is the cell level and then we think the current Gigafactory should actually be able to do in excess of 100 gigawatt hours.

是的。所提出的——你假設平均包裝尺寸，但如果你說它在 60 到 70 千瓦時水平左右，那麼你需要 70 吉瓦時才能達到 100 萬個單位。我們認為這是電池級別，然後我們認為當前的 Gigafactory 實際上應該能夠超過 100 吉瓦時。

So that leaves probably -- a big Gigafactory 1 can manage -- it can support under probably 1 million vehicles a year plus maybe something like 30 gigawatt hours or so of storage. Depending upon how fast the storage market grows. I think the storage market is probably going to grow maybe twice the rate of the automotive business or something like that.

所以剩下的可能 - 一個大型 Gigafactory 1 可以管理 - 它每年可以支持大約 100 萬輛汽車，外加大約 30 吉瓦時左右的存儲容量。取決於存儲市場的增長速度。我認為存儲市場的增長速度可能是汽車業務或類似業務的兩倍。

Okay. Are you still on track, do you believe, for 1 million vehicles in 2020 and 500,000 in 2018? And then as a quick follow-up to Model 3, you had previously talked about 20% gross margin on that. When do you think that margin target will be able to be achieved?

好的。您是否仍然在 2020 年 100 萬輛和 2018 年 50 萬輛的軌道上？然後作為對 Model 3 的快速跟進，您之前曾談到過 20% 的毛利率。您認為保證金目標何時能夠實現？

Yes. I currently think that we should build 0.5 million vehicles next year and 1 million vehicles by 2020. Yes, 0.5 million vehicles in total S, 3 and X combined, next year should -- as far as the information I have at my disposal right now, I believe that is the most likely outcome. And then with a couple more years getting to 1 million units. That seems also the most likely outcome. Yes.

是的。我目前認為我們應該在明年製造 50 萬輛汽車，到 2020 年製造 100 萬輛汽車。是的，S、3 和 X 總共 50 萬輛汽車，明年應該——就我現在掌握的信息而言，我相信這是最有可能的結果。然後再過幾年達到 100 萬台。這似乎也是最有可能的結果。是的。

Okay. A quick follow-up. Obviously with Jason leaving, and a little bit abrupt. Obviously Deepak is welcomed back. Should we think of this as a permanent situation or how should we be thinking about the CFO position going forward?

好的。快速跟進。很明顯，Jason 離開了，而且有點突然。顯然，迪帕克受到了歡迎。我們應該將其視為永久性情況，還是應該如何考慮未來的首席財務官職位？

Deepak has come back in a long-term role. This is not an interim capacity.

迪帕克已經回歸擔任長期角色。這不是臨時能力。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Cihra, Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆合夥人 Rob Cihra。

Thank you very much. Just wondering if I could ask a little more about the CapEx. I know you're talking about CapEx up until Model 3. But can you give us any kind of breakout maybe even in percentage terms looking throughout the year, how much CapEx you are thinking for Model 3 versus Gigafactory and versus Solar?

非常感謝。只是想知道我是否可以多問一些關於資本支出的問題。我知道您在談論直到 Model 3 之前的資本支出。但是您能否給我們任何形式的突破，甚至可能以百分比計算全年來看，您認為 Model 3 與 Gigafactory 和 Solar 的資本支出是多少？

Sure. We don't break down, we don't disclose the specifics here, but obviously Gigafactory and Model 3 are going to be the biggest investments. We've also got CapEx investments in equipment and tooling related to Model 3. But then also there's going to be a piece in CapEx on building out our service and our retail infrastructure as well. And the supercharger network. So it is the usual suspects.

當然。我們不會分解，我們不會在這裡透露細節，但顯然 Gigafactory 和 Model 3 將是最大的投資。我們還在與 Model 3 相關的設備和工具方面進行了資本支出投資。但資本支出中也將有一部分用於構建我們的服務和零售基礎設施。和增壓器網絡。所以這是通常的嫌疑人。

And solar glass, there are solar glass tiles.

還有太陽能玻璃，還有太陽能玻璃磚。

Yes, if I could just ask one more or two on that. Solar glass tile, you are looking to start production, I guess whatever, later this year or ramp capacity. Is that a meaningful amount of CapEx for that, or relatively speaking is it not?

是的，如果我能再問一兩個。太陽能玻璃磚，你正在尋找開始生產，我猜是什麼，今年晚些時候或增加產能。這是一個有意義的資本支出，還是相對而言不是？

Relatively speaking, it is not.

相對而言，並非如此。

It is pretty modest.

這是相當謙虛的。

We are talking about insane numbers for Model 3. Gigafactory. It will look huge by comparison.

我們正在談論 Model 3 的瘋狂數字。Gigafactory。相比之下，它看起來會很大。

We will be scaling that in the Buffalo Tesla solar factory. So it is helpful that facility already exists. So we don't have to invest in CapEx for a new factory.

我們將在布法羅特斯拉太陽能工廠擴大規模。因此，設施已經存在是有幫助的。所以我們不必為新工廠投資資本支出。

Right, for something like this.

對，對於這樣的事情。

And also frankly a lot of the equipment already exists, so it's already purchased.

而且坦率地說，很多設備已經存在，所以已經購買了。

It's like [minor].

就像[次要]。

But it will ramp and start scaling at the end of this year.

但它將在今年年底開始擴大規模。

Think of it in percentages. Think of it in percentages of the Model 3 CapEx.

用百分比來考慮它。以 Model 3 資本支出的百分比來考慮。

Yes.

是的。

Great, thanks, and if I could just ask a quick follow-up. I think someone started to ask it earlier, but I don't think it was answered, which was just if you know -- well, you know, if we knew when you were going to start opening customer configurations for Model 3?

太好了，謝謝，如果我能要求快速跟進。我想有人早些時候開始問這個問題，但我不認為它得到了回答，這只是如果你知道 - 好吧，你知道，如果我們知道你什麼時候開始為 Model 3 開放客戶配置？

Probably going to be pretty close to production. We will open it internally because the first cars will go to Tesla employees. And so investors and whatnot [can know that] so that -- so we can experience any challenges before our customers do. So obviously we would do that internally. So then we would do it externally. I think it is probably three or four months away.

可能會非常接近生產。我們將在內部開放它，因為第一批汽車將提供給特斯拉員工。所以投資者和其他人[可以知道這一點]，這樣我們就可以在客戶之前經歷任何挑戰。所以很明顯我們會在內部這樣做。因此，我們將在外部進行。我想大概還有三四個月吧。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Our next question --

我們的下一個問題——

Vicki, very quickly let me interrupt you here. So we are on the hour mark. We have a couple of more questioners in queue. Let's go into the speed round. All right, Vicki, take it away.

Vicki，很快讓我在這裡打斷你。所以我們在小時標記上。我們還有幾個提問者在排隊。讓我們進入速度回合。好吧，維姬，把它拿走。

Thank you, our next question is from Jeff Osborne, Cowen and Company. Your line is now open.

謝謝，我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Jeff Osborne。您的線路現已開通。

Good afternoon. I appreciate you squeezing me in. Two quick ones, one was there a solar securitization in the quarter? And if so, large was it? And then two, Elon, I believe at the Gigafactory event on January 4, you mentioned that there was some equipment stamping tools and whatnot that needed to be put in place in Fremont. I was curious if, A, if those showed up, and B, if you can update us on what needs to be done from just a physical capacity to make the vehicle in July?

下午好。我很感激你把我擠進去。兩個快速的，一個是本季度的太陽能證券化？如果是這樣，它很大嗎？然後是兩個，Elon，我相信在 1 月 4 日的 Gigafactory 活動中，你提到有一些設備沖壓工具等需要在弗里蒙特安裝到位。我很好奇，A，如果那些出現了，B，如果你能告訴我們在 7 月份製造車輛需要做些什麼？

I would answer no to solar securitization in Q4. There is one in Q1.

我會在第四季度對太陽能證券化回答不。第一季度有一個。

And we are busy building out the stamping facility right now. The other question is not whether the stamping facility will be here -- whether the stamping facility will be here. It's going to be here well in advance of the Model 3. But the question is really how long does it take to work out the bugs in the stamping line? And how many iterations does this one have to go through to get it operating smoothly?

我們現在正忙於建造沖壓設施。另一個問題不是沖壓設施是否會在這裡——沖壓設施是否會在這裡。它將比 Model 3 早早出現。但問題是真正需要多長時間才能解決沖壓線中的錯誤？這個需要經過多少次迭代才能使其順利運行？

It will all be here and it will be a beehive of activity, and I will be personally down there looking at the line as I was when we put the Model S line. And I don't think that is going to be an issue. There are some long-lead stamping tools, the stamping dies, and there's a lot of them. And there is some sort of [fairly obscure] stamping dies. Like one die for a seat frame. That is currently along the item. Since we know about it, we are attacking it, and that is unlikely to be a schedule driver.

一切都將在這裡，這將是一個活動的蜂巢，我將親自在那裡看著生產線，就像我們放置 Model S 生產線時一樣。而且我認為這不會成為問題。有一些長引線的沖壓工具，沖壓模具，數量很多。還有某種[相當模糊的]沖壓模具。就像一個座椅框架的模具。這是目前的項目。因為我們知道它，所以我們正在攻擊它，這不太可能成為日程安排的驅動因素。

The things that are likely to be schedule issues are things that we actually just don't know about today. If we know about it, we are attacking it vigorously.

可能是進度問題的事情是我們今天實際上不知道的事情。如果我們知道它，我們正在大力攻擊它。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你。

Our next question comes from the line of Charlie Anderson, Dougherty. Your line is now open.

我們的下一個問題來自多爾蒂的查理·安德森。您的線路現已開通。

Yes, thanks for squeezing me in as well, just a quick one for me from me on Gigafactory. In the shareholder letter you talked about Gigafactories 3, 4 and possibly 5. It sounds like you are pretty covered with Gigafactory 1 in terms of the 1 million vehicles, but I wonder if you could speak to the strategy and thinking and timing there? And then Panasonic would be your partner on those as well? Thanks.

是的，也感謝您在 Gigafactory 上給我的幫助。在股東信中，您談到了 Gigafactory 3、4 和可能的 5。聽起來您對 Gigafactory 1 的 100 萬輛汽車非常滿意，但我想知道您能否談談那裡的戰略、思考和時機？然後鬆下也會成為你的合作夥伴嗎？謝謝。

I think we will reserve -- keep some powder dry for those announcements later this year. This probably was not enough news for today. But I think those announcements will be really quite exciting later this year.

我想我們會為今年晚些時候的公告保留一些粉末。對於今天來說，這可能還不夠新聞。但我認為這些公告將在今年晚些時候非常令人興奮。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

Let's go to the next question.

讓我們進入下一個問題。

Our next question comes from the line Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

I was hoping to get a few more points to calibrate to expected free cash flow breakeven at the Motors company. I guess there is a couple things on this. One is you mentioned that the CapEx of $2 billion to $2.5 billion is until the Model 3 launch. Could you give us an idea of what you are expecting for the full year, what the rate would be post-launch of Model 3?

我希望得到更多的分數來校準汽車公司的預期自由現金流盈虧平衡點。我想這有幾件事。一個是你提到的 20 億至 25 億美元的資本支出是在 Model 3 推出之前。您能否告訴我們您對全年的預期，Model 3 發布後的價格是多少？

Yes, right now, like we said earlier, I think we're just focusing on our first-half guidance rather than the second half of the year. There's going to be lots of exciting things going on in the second half of the year with the solar roof and the Model 3 getting to scale and everything else, so we are just focused on that at this point in time.

是的，現在，就像我們之前所說的，我認為我們只關注上半年的指導，而不是下半年。隨著太陽能屋頂和 Model 3 的規模化以及其他一切，今年下半年將會發生很多令人興奮的事情，所以我們現在只關注這一點。

There is obviously going to be a fair bit of incremental investment to go from 5,000 cars a week to 10,000 cars a week. But it's going to be a lot less than getting to 5,000 cars a week in the first place. We don't know exactly what that's going to be, except I'm confident it will be less because the first thing we will try to increase output, is going back to rocket equation, is to increase exit velocity of the line.

顯然，要從每週 5,000 輛汽車增加到每週 10,000 輛汽車，需要進行相當多的增量投資。但這比最初每週生產 5,000 輛汽車要少得多。我們不確切知道那會是什麼，但我相信它會更少，因為我們將嘗試增加輸出的第一件事，回到火箭方程式，就是增加線路的出口速度。

We don't know exactly where the turning points are going to be. We try to model it out as carefully as possible but there will be things that are not captured in the model. But I think in a lot of cases, we will simply be able to run the lines faster as opposed to duplicate the line. That is by far the best CapEx maneuver. It's just make it go faster.

我們不知道轉折點究竟會在哪裡。我們嘗試盡可能仔細地對其進行建模，但是模型中沒有捕捉到一些東西。但我認為在很多情況下，我們將能夠更快地運行線路，而不是複制線路。這是迄今為止最好的資本支出策略。只是讓它跑得更快。

But I would say it's going from 5,000 to 10,000 is probably the total wild [expletive] guess. That's the right way to think about it. It's like 40% to 50% to 70% of the cost of the 5,000 line, something like that. If we're lucky and we're smart, 50 -- that's only half a gain, which obviously it is pretty awesome from a CapEx standpoint. I can't imagine it being more than about [70%]. As much as there is. JB, what do you think?

但我會說它從 5,000 到 10,000 可能是完全瘋狂的 [咒罵] 猜測。這是正確的思考方式。這就像 5,000 條線路成本的 40% 到 50% 到 70% 之類的。如果我們很幸運而且我們很聰明，50 歲——這只是一半的收益，從資本支出的角度來看，這顯然是非常棒的。我無法想像它會超過 [70%]。有多少就多少。 JB，你怎麼看？

I think that's right and it's maybe helpful to realize that a lot of the infrastructure investments to get all the way to 10,000 are complete in the Gigafactory.

我認為這是正確的，並且意識到在 Gigafactory 中完成了許多基礎設施投資以達到 10,000 可能會有所幫助。

That's true.

確實如此。

It is not even as if we are starting from scratch, to go from 5,000 to 10,000.

我們甚至不是從零開始，從 5,000 到 10,000。

That's true. Some things will work like you can spent 10% more. Like in a really good case, you spend 10% more and have twice as much capacity. And you are like, Okay, sure. It's not great in the short term, but it's obvious, a good thing in the long-term.

確實如此。有些事情會奏效，就像您可以多花 10% 一樣。就像在一個非常好的案例中一樣，您多花 10% 並且擁有兩倍的容量。你就像，好的，當然。這在短期內不是很好，但很明顯，從長遠來看，這是一件好事。

Where there were great efficiencies in the way the layout, the facility per instance, thus the word Gigafactory. So we don't anticipate needing to build much new square footage for instance to go all the way to 10,000. Even though we would be expanding the internal production lines while we speed them up and add new instances of production. But the Tesla CapEx would not be a one-to-one scaling, not even close.

在佈局方式、每個實例的設施方面效率很高的地方，因此有了 Gigafactory 這個詞。因此，我們預計不需要建造太多新的平方英尺，例如一直到 10,000 平方英尺。儘管我們會在加快內部生產線的速度並添加新的生產實例的同時擴大內部生產線。但特斯拉資本支出不會是一對一的縮放比例，甚至不會接近。

Could you comment on the run rate of OpEx for 2017 for the Motors company or for the whole company?

您能否評論一下汽車公司或整個公司 2017 年運營支出的運行率？

Sure. The way to think about it is we're going to continue to drive efficiencies in G&A. We have to do that.

當然。考慮它的方式是我們將繼續提高 G&A 的效率。我們必須這樣做。

In part because we can't fit people in the building. It seems like a silly concern. But it's really quite difficult.

部分原因是我們無法容納人員進入大樓。這似乎是一個愚蠢的擔憂。但這真的相當困難。

We have a real volumetric problem, a good constraint to have.

我們有一個真正的體積問題，一個很好的約束。

Parking is one of my biggest nightmares. Where do we park everyone? We can't fit everyone so we have to make our OpEx better, because there's nowhere for people to go.

停車是我最大的噩夢之一。我們把每個人停在哪裡？我們不能適合所有人，所以我們必須讓我們的運營支出更好，因為人們無處可去。

We are at that stage now where G&A will continue to scale sub-linearly with revenue and we will continue to always push productivity. Productivity, productivity, productivity. And then we will obviously need to continue to make investments on the sales side. Even in my new ventures, I will be calling Jon and harassing him about his numbers.

我們現在處於這樣一個階段，G&A 將繼續與收入呈次線性增長，我們將繼續推動生產力。生產力，生產力，生產力。然後我們顯然需要繼續在銷售方面進行投資。即使在我的新事業中，我也會打電話給喬恩並就他的數字騷擾他。

From a demand generation standpoint, we don't need to make actually any investment for the Model 3 probably for the next 12 months. So the delivery of the cars is where the investment is needed. Deliver 3 or 4 times as many cars. But we don't want to have 3 or 4 times as many delivery centers.

從需求產生的角度來看，我們可能在未來 12 個月內實際上不需要為 Model 3 進行任何投資。因此，汽車的交付是需要投資的地方。交付 3 或 4 倍的汽車。但我們不希望有 3 或 4 倍的配送中心。

How do we make that delivery process more streamlined, less paperwork, less bureaucracy and get people ahead of time, really well produced instruction videos for how to use their car. And well of course the best instruction -- the best thing is like not having instructions. And you will actually be able to play all of the instructions needed for your car on your car. Except you don't want to have -- you can look at that. You can look at your email or get in the car.

我們如何使交付過程更加簡化，減少文書工作，減少官僚主義並提前讓人們提前，製作非常好的關於如何使用他們的汽車的指導視頻。當然還有最好的指導——最好的事情就是沒有指導。而且您實際上將能夠在您的汽車上播放您的汽車所需的所有說明。除了你不想擁有——你可以看看那個。您可以查看電子郵件或上車。

Sales actually, the demand generation, and then delivery of the car, that is as far as sales that is the scaling part. And then we are talking on [part of the inventions], like they were we increased the design lifetime of the powertrain from roughly a 0.25 million miles to aspirationally 1 million miles. So that should really help us.

銷售實際上是需求的產生，然後是汽車的交付，也就是銷售，這是規模化的部分。然後我們正在談論[部分發明]，就像我們將動力總成的設計壽命從大約 25 萬英里增加到理想的 100 萬英里一樣。所以這應該真的對我們有幫助。

I guess still trying to calibrate to this cash flow and cash needs. Maybe a different way to ask this is, is it reasonable to expect that you would hit for the Motors company free cash flow breakeven at the 250,000 unit a year level for Model 3, assuming what we know today?

我想仍然試圖校準這種現金流和現金需求。也許換一種方式來問這個問題，假設我們今天所知道的，您是否可以合理地期望 Model 3 的自由現金流盈虧平衡點達到每年 250,000 輛的水平？

It depends on how quickly we want to ramp production to go from 5,000 a week to 10,000 a week on Model 3. There could be an argument that you don't want to go to cash flow breakeven or positive because you are losing a lot of sales. When you calculate the present value of future cash flows, then it's actually not smart to be in that case free cash flow positive. Or maybe you want to be a little negative at least, and not give up a huge number of sales because you would be talking -- the numbers get just so crazy.

這取決於我們希望以多快的速度將 Model 3 的產量從每週 5,000 輛提高到每週 10,000 輛。可能有人認為您不想實現現金流盈虧平衡或正數，因為您損失了很多銷售量。當您計算未來現金流的現值時，在這種情況下自由現金流為正實際上並不明智。或者，也許你至少想有點消極，不要因為你會說話而放棄大量的銷售——數字變得如此瘋狂。

A 0.25 million is roughly $1 billion a month revenue. And you double that and it's $2 billion per month. Again, maybe spending incremental $0.5 billion on CapEx would be a pretty smart move if it advances things by two or three months.

25 萬是每月大約 10 億美元的收入。如果你把它翻倍，那就是每月 20 億美元。同樣，如果將事情提前兩三個月，也許在資本支出上增加 5 億美元將是一個非常明智的舉措。

It just seems like at that level of 250,000 you would be generating probably at least $2 billion of gross profit for Model 3 and if you continue this Model X rate, you are at $2.5 billion of gross from that. So even with OpEx of just under $3 billion, and CapEx of just under $3 billion, if you add in D&A it looks like it's pretty close. I understand, it sounds like it's within your control.

看起來在 250,000 的水平上，您可能會為 Model 3 產生至少 20 億美元的毛利潤，如果您繼續保持這個 Model X 的速度，那麼您將獲得 25 億美元的毛利潤。因此，即使運營支出略低於 30 億美元，資本支出略低於 30 億美元，如果加上 D&A，它看起來也非常接近。我明白，這聽起來像是在你的控制範圍內。

It's within our control. If we were to just level off we could be cash flow positive right now.

它在我們的控制範圍內。如果我們只是平穩下來，我們現在可能是正現金流。

Right.

正確的。

Obviously we are in the sort of low to mid-20s on gross margin on the car. At a $10 billion a year run rate, that's $2 billion to $2.5 billion. We could definitely be profitable and cash flow positive at that level. But then our growth rate would be much slower. So it's just really like a series of overlapping parallel MPV streams, like an obvious way to look at it, I think.

顯然，我們的汽車毛利率處於 20 多歲左右。以每年 100 億美元的速度計算，即 20 億至 25 億美元。在那個水平上，我們絕對可以盈利並且現金流為正。但那樣我們的增長速度就會慢得多。所以它真的就像一系列重疊的並行 MPV 流，就像一種明顯的方式來看待它，我認為。

And by the way guys, it would be great to get some feedback if you think we're not making a smart move. Please tell us. We would love to hear feedback. We're definitely not going to hit the bull's-eye every time. We're going to make mistakes. So hearing feedback from you would be great.

順便說一句，如果您認為我們沒有做出明智的舉動，那麼獲得一些反饋會很棒。請告訴我們。我們很想听聽反饋。我們絕對不會每次都擊中靶心。我們會犯錯誤。所以聽到你的反饋會很棒。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Jeff Evanson.

我現在沒有進一步的問題。我現在想把電話轉給 Jeff Evanson 先生。

Okay thank you, Vicki. Thank you everyone for joining today. Have a lovely evening.

好的，謝謝你，維姬。感謝大家今天的加入。有一個美好的夜晚。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序，你們都可以斷開連接。大家，有一個美好的一天。