特斯拉 (TSLA) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors Incorporated third-quarter 2016 financial results Q&A conference call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉汽車公司 2016 年第三季度財務業績問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人 Jeff Evanson 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Chanel, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's third-quarter 2016 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, JB Straubel, Jason Wheeler, and Jon McNeill.

謝謝你，香奈兒，大家下午好。歡迎收聽特斯拉 2016 年第三季度問答網絡直播。今天加入我的有 Elon Musk、JB Straubel、Jason Wheeler 和 Jon McNeill。

Our Q3 results are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast, and during our call today we will make -- we'll discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. We will start today's call with some brief comments by Elon and Jason, followed by your questions and answers.

我們的第三季度業績在與此網絡廣播相同鏈接的更新信中公佈，在我們今天的電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。我們將從 Elon 和 Jason 的一些簡短評論開始今天的電話會議，然後是您的問題和答案。

During the Q&A please try to limit yourselves to one question and one follow up. And so if you want to log into the Q&A queue, please do so now by pressing star one. And Elon, I'll pass it over to you.

在問答期間，請盡量將自己限制在一個問題和一個跟進。因此，如果您想登錄問答隊列，請現在按星號進行。還有埃隆，我會把它交給你。

Thank you. My comments will be brief because I think it's really -- what I would have to say is captured in the earnings letter. Obviously the main thing is that we are able to have our best quarter ever, achieve full GAAP profitability, and moreover I think we are headed to have a great fourth quarter as well.

謝謝你。我的評論將是簡短的，因為我認為這真的 - 我不得不說的內容已包含在收益信中。顯然，最重要的是我們能夠擁有有史以來最好的季度，實現完全的 GAAP 盈利能力，而且我認為我們也將迎來一個偉大的第四季度。

One of the criticisms I've seen out there is that perhaps Q3 was at the expense of Q4. This is not true, and we currently believe that Q4 will be profitable, excluding non-cash stock-based expenses. I think there is actually a chance that we will be -- there is a chance that will be profitable even including stock and non-cash stock-based expenses. It's just a chance. It's not a promise, but I think we've got a shot at actually being profitable, even taking stock-based expenses into account.

我在那裡看到的批評之一是，也許第三季度是以犧牲第四季度為代價的。這不是真的，我們目前認為第四季度將盈利，不包括基於非現金股票的費用。我認為我們實際上有機會 - 即使包括股票和非現金股票費用在內，我們也有機會盈利。這只是一個機會。這不是一個承諾，但我認為我們有機會真正實現盈利，即使考慮到基於股票的費用。

So it's very exciting. I think we're very proud of the Tesla team for executing so well on Q3 and going into Q4 and beyond. So it has been great. Definitely one of the best moments ever in Tesla, I think. Jason?

所以這非常令人興奮。我認為我們為特斯拉團隊在第三季度表現如此出色並進入第四季度及以後感到非常自豪。所以一直很棒。我認為，這絕對是特斯拉有史以來最好的時刻之一。傑森？

Thanks, Elon. Just a couple points I wanted to hit on real quickly before we jump into Q&A. One is I just want to point out the prudent financial management that we have been able to accomplish over the last several quarters. An example here is back in 2015 we were spending $400 million a quarter on CapEx.

謝謝，埃隆。在我們進入問答環節之前，我想快速了解幾點。一是我只想指出我們在過去幾個季度中能夠完成的審慎財務管理。這裡的一個例子是在 2015 年，我們每季度在資本支出上花費了 4 億美元。

We have averaged about $250 million a quarter in 2016. That will change as Model 3 start to ramp up in Q4, but we're focusing on make sure that every dollar we spend is in its highest and best use.

我們在 2016 年平均每季度約 2.5 億美元。隨著 Model 3 在第四季度開始加速增長，這種情況將會改變，但我們專注於確保我們花費的每一美元都得到最高和最佳使用。

From a gross margin perspective, if you look at automotive gross margin and you exclude ZEV credit revenue, we had 140 basis point improvement quarter over quarter. Lots of different factors there. One, obviously the increase in volume helps on the labor and overhead front.

從毛利率的角度來看，如果您查看汽車毛利率並排除 ZEV 信貸收入，我們的季度環比改善了 140 個基點。那裡有很多不同的因素。一，顯然，數量的增加有助於減少勞動力和間接費用。

Secondly, our reliability continues to get better and better. Big change in Model X over the last 12 months, as we highlighted in the letter, and continued improvements in batteries and drive units across both vehicles. Another source of gross margin improvement is supplier sourcing and the wind down of our commitments on prototype parts for Model X.

其次，我們的可靠性不斷提高。正如我們在信中強調的那樣，在過去 12 個月中，Model X 發生了巨大變化，並且兩款車的電池和驅動單元都在持續改進。毛利率提高的另一個來源是供應商採購以及我們對 Model X 原型零件的承諾逐漸減少。

Third point on financial management, you can see our OpEx is growing sub-linear to revenue. The operating leverage that we've been talking about through the course of the year is starting to kick in. To put some real numbers around that, GAAP revenue was up 81% quarter over quarter, 145% year over year, and yet GAAP OpEx was only up 7% quarter over quarter and 33% year over year.

關於財務管理的第三點，您可以看到我們的運營支出與收入呈線性增長。我們在這一年中一直在談論的運營槓桿開始發揮作用。用一些真實的數字來說明這一點，GAAP 收入環比增長 81%，同比增長 145%，但 GAAP 運營支出季度環比僅增長 7%，同比增長 33%。

The second thing I want to talk for just a couple of minutes about is what we have done to the capital structure and our sources of liquidity. As you may have read in the letter, we paid down $600 million in debt within the quarter. Most notably $422 million of conversions on our 2018 converts, derisking the balance sheet in the future.

我想談的第二件事是我們對資本結構和流動性來源所做的事情。正如您可能在信中看到的那樣，我們在本季度償還了 6 億美元的債務。最值得注意的是，我們 2018 年的轉換為 4.22 億美元，使未來的資產負債表面臨風險。

In addition to that, we were able to sign a $300 million warehouse line, which gives us more leasing capacity at great terms. The terms on that vehicle are less than 2%.

除此之外，我們還簽下了一條價值 3 億美元的倉庫線，這為我們提供了更多的租賃能力。該車輛的條款低於 2%。

Also we managed to get an 80% increase with our largest North America leasing partner in the quarter, and we're also on task to sign up a new leasing partner in Q4. Generally I would just like to point out that our access to capital markets and our sources of liquidity is a strong as it's ever been.

此外，我們在本季度與我們最大的北美租賃合作夥伴一起成功實現了 80% 的增長，我們還負責在第四季度簽約新的租賃合作夥伴。總的來說，我只想指出，我們進入資本市場的渠道和我們的流動性來源比以往任何時候都強大。

Just to highlight one element of what Jason is saying, our vehicle gross margin increased Q2 to Q3. One of the other things I've seen out there is that somehow we achieved these numbers as a result of widespread discounting; that is absolutely false.

只是為了突出傑森所說的一個要素，我們的汽車毛利率在第二季度至第三季度有所增加。我看到的另一件事是，由於廣泛的折扣，我們以某種方式實現了這些數字。那是絕對錯誤的。

The discounts, there were a few discounts, but they were few and far between and that has been absolutely shut down to zero. So you can see that in the fact that the vehicle profitability increased, even excluding ZEV credits from Q2 to Q3.

折扣，有一些折扣，但它們很少而且相差甚遠，而且已經完全關閉為零。因此，您可以看到車輛盈利能力增加的事實，即使不包括從 Q2 到 Q3 的 ZEV 積分。

All right, Chanel, I think we're ready for the first question.

好吧，香奈兒，我想我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

Colin Langan, UBS.

科林蘭根，瑞銀。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. It looks like a very strong free cash flow quarter, but when I look through the balance sheet there seems to be a pretty large increase in accounts payable and accrued liabilities that seems to have helped.

偉大的。感謝您提出我的問題。這看起來像是一個非常強勁的自由現金流季度，但當我查看資產負債表時，應付賬款和應計負債似乎有相當大的增長，這似乎有所幫助。

How should we think about that going into Q4? Does some of that unwind? Were there any changes to higher terms in the quarter, or is that just consistent with the ramp in production?

我們應該如何考慮進入第四季度？其中一些會放鬆嗎？本季度的更高條款是否有任何變化，或者這是否與產量增長一致？

Sure. Great question; this is Jason. So there was definitely an increase in payables, and I think that will start to unwind a little bit in Q4. A lot of that is natural. If you look at production I believe it increased 37% quarter over quarter. So there is naturally going to be more parts coming into the factory.

當然。好問題；這是傑森。因此，應付賬款肯定有所增加，我認為這將在第四季度開始有所緩解。很多都是自然的。如果你看一下產量，我相信它比上一季度增長了 37%。所以自然會有更多的零件進入工廠。

So I think some of that is just in the course of business. The other thing that I think is worth pointing out on the cash flow statement is receivables. We had a lot of deliveries right at the end of the quarter, so we were not able to collect all of our receivables. We ended up with a fairly large receivable balance on cars that were delivered in that last 10 days or so.

所以我認為其中一些只是在業務過程中。我認為在現金流量表中值得指出的另一件事是應收賬款。我們在本季度末有很多交付，因此我們無法收回所有應收賬款。我們最終在過去 10 天左右交付的汽車上收到了相當大的應收賬款餘額。

Yes. Definitely also with emphasizing that, it's a first approximation you expect payables to increase by 37% if production does. And you have to net out against receivables, and when you do that I think it is not really a material situation.

是的。當然還要強調這一點，如果生產增加，這是您預計應付賬款增加 37% 的第一個近似值。而且你必須從應收賬款中扣除，當你這樣做時，我認為這並不是一個真正的重大情況。

And we are actively looking to increase terms with suppliers, and I think as our production has been more predictable our suppliers have been much more open to that conversation.

我們正在積極尋求增加與供應商的條款，我認為隨著我們的生產更加可預測，我們的供應商對這種對話更加開放。

In fact -- thanks for making that point, Jason. I think it's worth emphasizing that for Model 3, but the Model 3 system is designed so that -- the whole manufacturing supply chain system is designed so that the faster Model 3 production grows the faster Tesla's cash balance grows. So the terms that we're getting from suppliers are significantly better, almost 60 days. As we've had to about 40 or 45 days for S and X, and the Model 3 production and logistics is way faster.

事實上——謝謝你提出這一點，傑森。我認為值得強調的是 Model 3，但 Model 3 系統的設計是這樣的——整個製造供應鏈系統的設計是為了讓 Model 3 的產量增長得越快，特斯拉的現金餘額增長得越快。所以我們從供應商那裡得到的條款要好得多，差不多 60 天。由於我們不得不為 S 和 X 生產大約 40 或 45 天，而 Model 3 的生產和物流速度要快得多。

The car spends much less time in the factory, and we're working on ways to expedite delivery of the vehicles to the end customer, which we can do when we have scale. We don't have to just wait for a ship to go somewhere.

這輛車在工廠里花費的時間要少得多，我們正在研究如何加快將車輛交付給最終客戶的速度，當我們有規模時，我們可以做到這一點。我們不必只是等待一艘船去某個地方。

We can fill up the whole ship and just have the ship go anywhere we want. So the net effect is that instead of growth being a capital consumer, growth is a capital producer.

我們可以裝滿整艘船，然後讓船去我們想去的任何地方。因此，淨效應是增長不是資本消費者，而是資本生產者。

Got it. And so the other question I had is, your guiding to profit in Q4 without ZEV credit. It actually sounds like without even the stock comp possibly, yet production is about flat, Model X (inaudible) is going to get a little worse, OpEx guidance implies that's up sequentially. So what are the key drivers that are actually going to get you to profitability? Because I think if you take out the ZEV credit it would've probably been still a loss in this quarter.

知道了。所以我的另一個問題是，你在沒有 ZEV 信用的情況下指導第四季度盈利。實際上，這聽起來可能連庫存都沒有，但產量基本持平，Model X（聽不清）會變得更糟，OpEx 指導暗示這是按順序上升的。那麼，真正讓您實現盈利的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？因為我認為，如果你取出 ZEV 信用額度，本季度可能仍然是虧損的。

We expect gross margin to increase, and that's a huge factor. (inaudible) We're using very few prototype parts, or low-volume selling parts, and we're not paying for crazy amounts of expediting, and there are a bunch of design improvements, design cost downs that actually are value neutral to the customer or in some cases actually it costs slightly better. And we have the P100. One of the things that the 100 kilowatt hour car [pack] was only in limited production towards the end of last quarter, and it will be a pretty significant portion of this quarter. So, yes.

我們預計毛利率會增加，這是一個巨大的因素。 （聽不清）我們使用的原型零件非常少，或者銷售量很小，而且我們沒有為大量的加急付出代價，而且有一堆設計改進，設計成本下降實際上對價值中立客戶或在某些情況下實際上它的成本略高。我們有 P100。其中之一是 100 千瓦時汽車 [pack] 僅在上個季度末限量生產，這將是本季度相當重要的一部分。所以，是的。

One additional thing is that reliability of the cars continues to get better, so our warranty costs start decreasing as well. And that's a really -- that's a key driver for us, not only from the cost side but from the demand side where we're creating demand in market given the reliability of the vehicles.

另外一件事是汽車的可靠性不斷提高，因此我們的保修成本也開始下降。這確實是我們的關鍵驅動力，不僅從成本方面，而且從需求方面來看，鑑於車輛的可靠性，我們在市場上創造了需求。

The reliability improvement is massive.

可靠性改進是巨大的。

It is. So the visits to service for Model X through the course of the year have declined 92%, which is just a fantastic result both from the manufacturing side, and the vehicle reliability teams have been working hard to achieve that, and we're going to continue to approve against that.

這是。因此，全年 Model X 的服務訪問量下降了 92%，這對於製造方面來說都是一個了不起的結果，車輛可靠性團隊一直在努力實現這一目標，我們將繼續反對。

Chanel, let's go to the next question, please.

香奈兒，請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Brian Johnson, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

Good afternoon. I just want to go in a little bit on the regulatory credits. A couple things, first clearly with your delivery numbers the California and the other CARB states are buying more Teslas, yet last quarter you talked about the value of those plummeting and we shouldn't really expect much.

下午好。我只想談談監管信用。有幾件事，首先很明顯，加利福尼亞和其他 CARB 州正在購買更多的特斯拉，但上個季度你談到了那些暴跌的價值，我們不應該期待太多。

So, obviously you are generating more, but a couple questions. What's happened in the marketplace for those credits? And I know even under GAAP you don't list that as a balance sheet asset, but if we were to think about the quarterly generation of credits as well as the credits on your -- in effect in your car bank that could be monetized in the future. How would we think about this?

所以，顯然你產生了更多，但有幾個問題。這些學分在市場上發生了什麼？而且我知道，即使在 GAAP 下，您也不會將其列為資產負債表資產，但如果我們考慮每季度產生的信用以及您的信用 - 實際上在您的汽車銀行中可以貨幣化未來。我們會怎麼想呢？

Unfortunately, as I've said on record before the CARB, their credit mandate is incredibly weak and needs to be fixed. And when you have a weak mandate obviously the value of those credits decline considerably.

不幸的是，正如我在 CARB 之前的記錄中所說，他們的信貸授權非常薄弱，需要修復。當你的授權很弱時，這些信用的價值顯然會大大下降。

There are some quarters where we simply cannot even find a buyer for credits, and then when we can find a buyer it's typically at $0.50 on the dollar for the ZEV credit. So -- and then obviously the ZEV credit is only applied to roughly half of our market in the US, maybe slightly above half.

在某些季度，我們甚至根本找不到信用的買家，然後當我們找到買家時，ZEV 信用的價格通常為 0.50 美元。所以 - 然後顯然 ZEV 信用僅適用於我們在美國的大約一半市場，可能略高於一半。

It doesn't apply to Asia or Europe or Canada or Mexico or anywhere else. So it's fair, and I think CARB really should be doing more, it's unfortunate that they are not. And then I need to maybe write a longer blog piece going through this, but Tesla is sometimes criticized for relying on tax credits and that kind of thing, people really misunderstand this.

它不適用於亞洲、歐洲、加拿大、墨西哥或其他任何地方。所以這是公平的，我認為 CARB 確實應該做得更多，不幸的是他們沒有。然後我可能需要寫一篇更長的博客文章來討論這個問題，但特斯拉有時會因依賴稅收抵免之類的事情而受到批評，人們真的誤解了這一點。

What matters is what does Tesla receive relative to its competitors, not what does Tesla receive in the absolute. But our competitors maybe worth noting maybe you would consider those to be a risk or something that is problematic for us, our competitors monetize ZEV credits at a hundred cents on the dollar.

重要的是特斯拉相對於其競爭對手獲得了什麼，而不是特斯拉絕對獲得了什麼。但我們的競爭對手可能值得注意，也許您會認為這些對我們來說是一種風險或有問題的東西，我們的競爭對手以 100 美分的價格將 ZEV 信用貨幣貨幣化。

We monetize them at $0.50 on the dollar where we can get it. That means if you have, let's say, it depends on the scenario but if you have three ZEV credits for an EV they would essentially be worth $5,000 each. So that would be $15,000. So when say, Jim or somebody sells an EV they get $15,000. But when Tesla sells an EV we get half that.

我們以 0.50 美元的價格將它們貨幣化，我們可以得到它。這意味著如果你有，比方說，這取決於場景，但如果你有三個 ZEV 積分用於一個 EV，它們基本上每個價值 5,000 美元。所以這將是 15,000 美元。因此，當說，吉姆或其他人出售電動汽車時，他們會得到 15,000 美元。但是，當特斯拉銷售電動汽車時，我們得到了一半。

Right, they have an internal market.

是的，他們有一個內部市場。

It's not we who are being subsidized but our competitors. Now the interesting thing is that there is a limit to our disadvantage. Because for them the credit thing is so weak, it only goes so far. It only applies to certain states.

得到補貼的不是我們，而是我們的競爭對手。現在有趣的是，我們的劣勢是有限度的。因為對他們來說，信用太弱了，只能走到這一步。它僅適用於某些州。

So what you will see our competitors do is they will limit their production and they will only sell in ZEV states, or almost entirely in ZEV states. That doesn't scale. That will take them to maybe 40,000 or 50,000 units a year best case, but not -- but we're talking about doing 500,000 units a year.

所以你會看到我們的競爭對手做的是他們將限制他們的生產，他們只會在 ZEV 州銷售，或者幾乎完全在 ZEV 州銷售。那不成比例。這將使他們每年生產 40,000 或 50,000 個單位，但不是 - 但我們談論的是每年生產 500,000 個單位。

Which means at high volume we no longer suffer the disadvantage of the credit regime. This is wholly misunderstood.

這意味著在大量交易中，我們不再遭受信貸制度的不利影響。這完全被誤解了。

Does that help, Brian?

這有幫助嗎，布賴恩？

Yes, just a quick follow up on Cap A credits. Were there any?

是的，只是對 Cap A 學分的快速跟進。有嗎？

Say again, Brian?

再說一遍，布賴恩？

Just a follow up. Were there GHG or other Cap A credits? And how did they compare to prior quotas?

只是一個跟進。是否有 GHG 或其他 Cap A 積分？它們與之前的配額相比如何？

Those are mouse nuts.

那些是老鼠堅果。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Let's go to the next question, please.

請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

科林·魯施，奧本海默。

Thanks so much. Can we just look at the shipment numbers? So a quarter ago you were guiding to roughly 80,000 vehicles a year, and now three months later we're down at 75,000. Can you just walk us through the factors that are impacting that lower shipment number, or delivery number I should say?

非常感謝。我們可以只看貨運編號嗎？因此，一個季度前，您每年指導大約 80,000 輛汽車，而現在三個月後，我們下降到 75,000 輛。您能否簡單介紹一下影響較低發貨數量或我應該說的交貨數量的因素？

I think this was really gone over in last quarter's call, is that we had problems getting to rates in the first half of the year. Rate being an average of roughly 2,000 cars a week. Just a lot of things broken in our production system. I personally probably took a year off my life or more camping out at the frigging factory solving that along with a number of other members of Tesla team.

我認為這在上一季度的電話會議中真的被解決了，因為我們在上半年的利率方面遇到了問題。率是平均每周大約 2,000 輛汽車。我們的生產系統中出現了很多問題。我個人可能會與特斯拉團隊的其他一些成員一起在冷凍工廠露營一年或更長時間來解決這個問題。

We went through bloody hell in the first half of this year. We got out of that basically around mid-June, and then the result is achieving a weekly production target of roughly 2,000 cars a week.

今年上半年，我們經歷了血腥的地獄。我們基本上在 6 月中旬左右擺脫了這種局面，然後結果是實現了每周大約 2,000 輛汽車的每週生產目標。

Okay, maybe I can take that offline. So then the second question for me is really about absorption. With nearly 40% increase in deliveries can you break out the impact in gross margin to absorption? It would seem that, that would be a meaningful number at this point.

好吧，也許我可以把它離線。那麼對我來說，第二個問題實際上是關於吸收的。隨著交付量增加近 40%，您能否打破毛利率對吸收的影響？在這一點上，這似乎是一個有意義的數字。

What are you talking about?

你在說什麼？

Factory absorption.

工廠吸收。

Do you mean fixed costs versus -- ?

您的意思是固定成本與 - 嗎？

Yes, fixed costs on the factory and how that flows through the depreciation line.

是的，工廠的固定成本以及它如何流經折舊線。

The way to think about that is, I think Elon actually just covered it in his last answer, we had capacitized the factory and had the factory essentially produce many more cars in the first half of the year, and we fell short of that. And now we're at the rate that we had planned to be at early in the year, so our absorption is about what we'd expect it to be. And I think what you're seeing now from an absorption perspective as it's related to gross margin is a good steady-state rate.

思考這個問題的方式是，我認為埃隆實際上只是在他的最後一個回答中提到了這一點，我們已經對工廠進行了產能化，並且工廠在上半年基本上生產了更多的汽車，但我們沒有做到這一點。現在我們正處於年初計劃的速度，所以我們的吸收與我們預期的差不多。而且我認為你現在從吸收的角度看到與毛利率有關的情況是一個很好的穩態率。

Okay, I was just looking for a quarter-over-quarter number in terms of the contribution margin.

好的，我只是在尋找邊際貢獻的季度環比數字。

We typically don't break down all the different factors within gross margin.

我們通常不會分解毛利率中的所有不同因素。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的。非常感謝。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

瑞安·布林克曼，摩根大通。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Can you talk about the drivers of the substantially less than expected capital expenditures in the quarter and the reduction to the full-year CapEx guide? Should we think about this as being more about the push out or delay of certain activities that give rise to CapEx, or is it more that you were on schedule with those activities but doing them in a thriftier way or some sort of combination of these factors?

偉大的。感謝您提出我的問題。您能否談談本季度資本支出大幅低於預期的驅動因素以及全年資本支出指南的減少？我們是否應該將其更多地視為導致資本支出的某些活動的推出或延遲，或者更多的是您按計劃進行這些活動，但以更節儉的方式進行，還是這些因素的某種組合?

One of the things that we found is way better with the 3 program than X is, is that our equipment suppliers are willing to work with us on payment terms, and we've been able to backend load and in fact post production load a huge amount of the CapEx. So that just turned out a lot better than we expected, but we're not taking any action that would cause the Model 3 timeline to be extended in any way.

我們發現 3 程序比 X 好得多的一件事是，我們的設備供應商願意在付款條件下與我們合作，而且我們已經能夠後端負載，實際上後期生產負載是巨大的資本支出的金額。所以結果比我們預期的要好得多，但我們沒有採取任何會導致 Model 3 時間線以任何方式延長的行動。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

We're still highly confident of reaching volume production in the second half of next year.

我們仍然對明年下半年實現量產充滿信心。

If I might chime into that a tiny bit as well, we also are continuing to improve the capital efficiency per unit of the production lines, and especially over the last few months. We've put a huge amount of engineering attention into really focusing on that problem and we're seeing results, and I think we will continue to see incremental improvements all the way from things like the battery cells all the way up to the vehicle itself.

如果我也可以加入一點點的話，我們還將繼續提高每條生產線的資本效率，尤其是在過去幾個月中。我們已經將大量的工程精力投入到真正關注這個問題上，並且我們正在看到成果，我認為我們將繼續看到從電池等方面一直到車輛本身的漸進式改進.

Okay, and then the follow up to that is just in regards to the amended F4 that you filed a couple of weeks back, there was some changed language in there from Tesla is currently planning to raise additional funds by the end of the year to, now stating that you expect adequate liquidity through at least the end of year, I think it says. So what was the primary change would you say? Does it relate to this CapEx issue that we're talking about here, or to higher earnings or to another factor?

好的，然後跟進的是關於你幾週前提交的修訂版 F4，其中有一些更改的語言，特斯拉目前計劃在今年年底之前籌集更多資金，現在說你預計至少到年底會有足夠的流動性，我認為它說。那麼你會說主要的變化是什麼？它是否與我們在這裡討論的資本支出問題有關，或者與更高的收益或其他因素有關？

I think it covers all of the above. We've gotten really good at capital efficiency. JB, who was just speaking, has done a great job of that up at the Gigafactory in particular.

我認為它涵蓋了以上所有內容。我們在資本效率方面做得非常好。剛剛發言的 JB 在這方面做得非常出色，尤其是在 Gigafactory。

And I think we're just executing very well. We met our internal targets for Q3, so -- and you see what happened on the cash flow statement. So I think it's operational execution as well as capital efficiency.

我認為我們只是執行得很好。我們實現了第三季度的內部目標，所以 - 你會看到現金流量表上發生了什麼。所以我認為這是運營執行以及資本效率。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。非常感謝。

One thing that's worth mentioning, and certainly I would take this with a grain of salt, sometimes I will say things which I think are speculation or my best guess, but they are not -- [different] from a promise. Our current financial plan does not require any capital risk for Model 3 at all.

值得一提的是，我當然會對此持保留態度，有時我會說一些我認為是推測或我最好的猜測的話，但它們與承諾不同。我們目前的財務計劃根本不需要 Model 3 的任何資本風險。

Now that's different from saying whether we should raise capital or not to account for uncertainty to have a larger buffer and to derisk the business. And then, we also feel pretty good having examined the SolarCity financials that it looks like SolarCity will actually be at least neutral, but perhaps a cash contributor in the fourth quarter in a small way.

現在這與說我們是否應該籌集資金以考慮不確定性以擁有更大的緩衝並降低業務風險是不同的。然後，我們檢查了 SolarCity 的財務狀況，我們感覺還不錯，看起來 SolarCity 實際上至少是中性的，但可能是第四季度的現金貢獻者。

But again, do not take this to the bank, that's not a promise this is like -- this is what appears to be the case. Contingent upon shareholder approval, we expect SolarCity to be somewhere between neutral and a cash contributor in the fourth quarter. And yes, things are looking good.

但同樣，不要把這個帶到銀行，這不是一個承諾——這似乎是事實。視股東批准而定，我們預計 SolarCity 在第四季度將介於中性和現金貢獻者之間。是的，情況看起來不錯。

It's not to say that there is going to be some darkness ahead, but they look really quite good right now. It seems like we probably won't want to do a capital raise even in Q1. I'm not saying we won't, but probably not. And it's overall looking quite promising.

並不是說前面會有一些黑暗，但他們現在看起來真的很好。即使在第一季度，我們也可能不想進行融資。我不是說我們不會，但可能不會。總體而言，它看起來很有希望。

The other thing I would just add on top of that is I would just go back to some of the comments I made at the beginning of the call about our other sources of liquidity. I mean the capital markets are open to us, and as our asset base grows our ability to monetize those assets increases.

除此之外，我要補充的另一件事是，我將回到我在電話會議開始時就我們的其他流動性來源發表的一些評論。我的意思是資本市場對我們開放，隨著我們資產基礎的增長，我們將這些資產貨幣化的能力也在增強。

We've got our AVL line, we've got the $300 million warehouse line. So we've got those things, and we've also been able to line up a bunch of incremental capacity on the leasing side for the rest of the quarter as well. So that's definitely a piece of it.

我們有我們的 AVL 線，我們有 3 億美元的倉庫線。所以我們已經有了這些東西，而且我們還能夠在本季度剩下的時間裡在租賃方面增加大量產能。所以這絕對是其中的一部分。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝你。

Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA.

伊曼紐爾·羅斯納，里昂證券。

Good afternoon. I have a couple of questions on your recent announcement around autonomous driving. So the first one is on hardware and then the second one on the software.

下午好。關於您最近關於自動駕駛的公告，我有幾個問題。所以第一個是硬件，第二個是軟件。

On hardware, it seems like at least from the outside where we're sitting, it seems like just recently you were indicating you will be deemphasizing the vision approach to ADAS and autonomous driving, and now it seems the latest hardware seems largely based on vision. So was curious how -- what was the thought process there?

在硬件方面，至少從我們所處的外部來看，似乎最近你表示你將不再強調 ADAS 和自動駕駛的視覺方法，現在看來最新的硬件似乎主要基於視覺.所以很好奇 - 那裡的思考過程是什麼？

And still within hardware, how did you acquire confidence that the hardware you're putting in cars today will still be adequate to take you all the way to full atonomy when it is only based -- I mean largely based on vision?

仍然在硬件方面，你是如何獲得信心的，即你今天安裝在汽車上的硬件仍然足以讓你一路走上完全自主的道路，因為它只是基於——我的意思是主要基於視覺？

First of all, I would separate what Tesla says from say some supplier of ours issuing (expletive). The blog that I wrote was very clear that radar is moving from a supplemental to also a primary sensor. It's not to the exclusion of vision, but it's also a primary sensor. Vision is still the main thing.

首先，我將特斯拉所說的與我們的一些供應商發出（咒罵）區分開來。我寫的博客非常清楚雷達正在從補充傳感器轉變為主要傳感器。它不排除視覺，但它也是一個主要傳感器。視力仍然是主要的。

But radar, instead of merely being like a crosscheck against vision is really when done well, and we're very confident at this point that it can be done this way, can be a primary sensor such that you can take actions based on radar information. You can also take actions based on just vision alone, much as a person might take action based on whether you hear something or you see something, but you don't need to both hear it and see it.

但是雷達，而不是僅僅像對視覺的交叉檢查，如果做得好，我們現在非常有信心，它可以通過這種方式完成，它可以成為一個主要傳感器，這樣你就可以根據雷達信息採取行動.您也可以僅根據視覺採取行動，就像一個人可能會根據您是聽到還是看到某物來採取行動一樣，但您不需要既聽到又看到。

So we feel highly confident that the 8 camera solution with 12 ultrasonics and a forward radar and the computing power that we now have on board is capable of full autonomy at a [simply] greater than a human. There are obviously skeptics out there; well I suggest that they do not bet against us.

因此，我們非常有信心，帶有 12 個超聲波和一個前向雷達的 8 攝像頭解決方案以及我們現在擁有的計算能力能夠以比人類更大的速度實現完全自主。顯然有懷疑論者。好吧，我建議他們不要對我們下注。

Okay. And then on the software side, I guess a lot of the players involved in developing autonomous solutions seem to think that a big input for autonomous driving, especially high levels of autonomy, serve a live updated map. What are -- there was not a lot of new information on the most recent announcement on this. What are Tesla's plans for this part of the solution?

好的。然後在軟件方面，我猜很多參與開發自動駕駛解決方案的玩家似乎認為自動駕駛的一大投入，特別是高度自治，服務於實時更新的地圖。什麼是——關於這方面的最新公告，沒有很多新信息。特斯拉對這部分解決方案有什麼計劃？

You mean --?

你的意思是 - ？

I think we're getting into technical questions that are not really related to this quarter, so we will have to pass.

我認為我們正在處理與本季度無關的技術問題，因此我們將不得不通過。

Stay tuned for product announcements as they come out.

請繼續關注發布的產品公告。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay. Thanks, Emmanuel.

好的。謝謝，伊曼紐爾。

John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

美銀美林的約翰·墨菲

Good afternoon. Just a somewhat of a redundant follow-up question here, but I really just want to make sure I get this right. As you're looking at R&D and CapEx, those are two items that as we're looking at a very significant product launch next year are running at very low levels.

下午好。這裡只是一個多餘的後續問題，但我真的只是想確保我做對了。當您查看研發和資本支出時，這兩個項目在我們看到明年非常重要的產品發佈時運行在非常低的水平。

I'm just curious, as you are talking about this, do you think that -- well I mean, no, they're not that low, but relative to what we would expect ahead of a product launch. Do you think that R&D at absolute levels can stay here and support the Model 3 launch and everything else you are working on?

我只是好奇，當你在談論這個時，你認為 - 我的意思是，不，它們並沒有那麼低，但相對於我們在產品發布之前的預期。您認為絕對水平的研發可以留在這裡並支持 Model 3 的發布以及您正在從事的所有其他工作嗎？

Or will that need to go up? And then also similarly, this CapEx number of $1 billion plus in the fourth quarter really is a significant step up. Is that really just too high a number and you really are running significantly lower than this, 2.25% lower than $1.8 billion, maybe something significantly lower, and really finding a massive amount of efficiency here? I'm just really trying to understand what these levels are going to be because they are very impressive to date.

還是需要漲價？同樣，第四季度超過 10 億美元的資本支出數字確實是一個顯著的進步。這個數字真的太高了嗎？你的運行速度真的比這個低得多，比 18 億美元低 2.25%，也許要低得多，並且真的在這裡找到了大量的效率？我只是真的想了解這些級別將是什麼，因為它們迄今為止令人印象深刻。

I can take the R&D piece. I imagine that R&D will continue to go up.

我可以拿R&D那塊。我認為研發將繼續上升。

Not in giant ways. Moderate increases in R&D are to be expected, but not some big step change.

不是以巨大的方式。研發的適度增長是可以預期的，但不會有大的變化。

Exactly. On the SG&A side that is where we're really finding a lot of operating leverage. On the capital front, again, I think there's just continued opportunities for us to optimize this. There's a whole new paradigm of thinking that we're going through, and it's breaking through conventional norms such as to add a step change in capacity you have to have had a step change in capital.

確切地。在 SG&A 方面，我們確實發現了很多運營槓桿。同樣，在資本方面，我認為我們還有持續的機會來優化這一點。我們正在經歷一種全新的思維範式，它正在突破傳統規範，例如在能力上增加一個台階變化，你必須在資本上有一個台階變化。

That is not true. You can always optimize things. You can make things move faster. It could be more efficient, you can use floor space better. So I think it's some of this thinking which Elon has talked a lot about that is really getting baked into our capital plans.

那不是真的。你總是可以優化事情。你可以讓事情進展得更快。它可以更有效，您可以更好地利用地面空間。因此，我認為 Elon 經常談到的一些想法真正融入了我們的資本計劃。

Maybe it's seems low relative to the traditional industry, but I guess if we're comparing to what we've done in our past, and even if we just look at the --

也許它相對於傳統行業來說似乎很低，但我想如果我們與我們過去所做的相比，即使我們只看 -

It looks like a lot of money to us.

對我們來說，這似乎是一大筆錢。

The S program was actually quite a lot lower R&D and lower CapEx than this. It feels like a huge amount of money.

S 計劃實際上比這要低得多的研發和資本支出。感覺是一筆巨款。

But I mean you really are running at a run rate that is half of what you, or less than half of what you originally were talking about for the year on a run rate basis. I'm just trying to understand if that's something that is more realistic, or we should expect a real big step up in the fourth quarter.

但我的意思是，你的跑步速度確實是你的一半，或者不到你最初在跑步速度基礎上所說的一半。我只是想了解這是否更現實，或者我們應該期待第四季度真正的大進步。

If you go back to actually our guidance at the beginning of the -- on the OpEx side, I believe our initial guidance was 25% year over year, and we bumped that up to 30% year over year. But there is --

如果你回到我們開始時的指導 - 在運營支出方面，我相信我們最初的指導是同比增長 25%，而我們將其提高到同比增長 30%。但是還有 -

I'm sorry, I mean on CapEx.

對不起，我的意思是資本支出。

On CapEx our original guidance at the beginning of the year was $1.5 billion. And then when we made the initial announcement to bring forward production of 500,000 vehicles into 2018, then we bumped it up. And I think now we're just getting smarter about that and that's why we brought that guidance back down in the letter this quarter.

在資本支出方面，我們年初的初始指導是 15 億美元。然後，當我們最初宣布將 500,000 輛汽車的產量提前到 2018 年時，我們就提高了。而且我認為現在我們對此變得更加聰明，這就是為什麼我們在本季度的信中撤回了該指導。

We're probably just too conservative on how our capital projections. It's turned out to be we can do this with less capital than anticipated.

我們可能對我們的資本預測過於保守。事實證明，我們可以用比預期更少的資金來做到這一點。

Just one follow up on mix. These 100 kilowatt hour models, it sounds like in some ways you may have underestimated the high end of the market, which is a good thing. As we think about that as a percent of mix going forward, do you really think there's a tremendous opportunity for that to be a material part of the mix?

只有一個跟進混合。這些 100 千瓦時的型號，聽起來在某些方面你可能低估了市場的高端，這是一件好事。當我們將其視為未來混合的百分比時，您真的認為這是一個巨大的機會，可以成為混合的重要組成部分嗎？

Yes. Right now there are three things that are top priorities for me. Obviously, Model 3, achieving our rate at schedule in Model 3 -- rate at schedule and cost on Model 3 is top. Then it's advancing the autopilot software, autopilot to self-driving software, and then it's the 100 kilowatt hour, trying to ramp up the 100 kilowatt hour production rates.

是的。現在有三件事對我來說是最重要的。顯然，Model 3 在 Model 3 中按計劃實現了我們的速度——Model 3 的按計劃速度和成本是最高的。然後是推進自動駕駛軟件，從自動駕駛到自動駕駛軟件，然後是 100 千瓦時，試圖提高 100 千瓦時的生產率。

I receive daily updates on the 100 kilowatt hour production. After this call I'm probably going to be on the 100 kilowatt hour production line, because the demand is high and we just need to satisfy that demand.

我每天都會收到有關 100 千瓦時生產的最新信息。在這個電話之後，我可能會在 100 千瓦時的生產線上，因為需求很高，我們只需要滿足這個需求。

It seems like that almost might be more important as far as profitability and cash flow in the near term than the Model 3.

就近期的盈利能力和現金流而言，這似乎比 Model 3 更重要。

Definitely in the near term. (laughter) That's 100% certain.

肯定是在短期內。 （笑聲）這是 100% 確定的。

But even over time. But okay. Thank you.

但即使隨著時間的推移。不過沒關係。謝謝你。

It's a very big deal. Seven days a week I get an update on the 100 kilowatt hour progress on the production ramp of that.

這是一件大事。每週 7 天，我都會收到有關其生產斜坡上 100 千瓦時進度的最新信息。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ben Kallo, Baird.

本·卡洛，貝爾德。

If I can ask a question about SolarCity, one of the things when I cover SolarCity, and you bought Silevo, my initial reaction was to be negative on it. And one of the things I've worried about with the transaction if you acquired or merging is the Buffalo deal and it just being a cash cow.

如果我可以問一個關於 SolarCity 的問題，這是我報導 SolarCity 時的一件事，而你買了 Silevo，我最初的反應是對此持否定態度。如果你收購或合併，我擔心交易的一件事是布法羅交易，它只是一個搖錢樹。

And so, I was relieved when I saw Panasonic step in. Can you talk anymore about that? And then maybe in the same question I saw this -- the slide deck yesterday about how their business model is changing from lease to more cash sales or loan sales.

所以，當看到松下介入時，我鬆了口氣。你能再說一遍嗎？然後也許在同一個問題中我看到了這個 - 昨天關於他們的商業模式如何從租賃轉變為更多現金銷售或貸款銷售的幻燈片。

What do you expect going forward, and maybe that's Jason, from a cash flow basis? I know you said Q4 or they had said that, but can this be cash accretive to the business next year? Thanks. And I have one follow up.

從現金流的角度來看，你對未來有什麼期望，也許是 Jason？我知道你說過第四季度或者他們說過，但這可以為明年的業務帶來現金增值嗎？謝謝。我有一個跟進。

I think, I expect SolarCity to be approximately cash neutral, all things considered, next year. Yes. It does depend on how fast we ramp up production in Buffalo. And by the way, I think previously in your question you said cash cow, I think maybe you meant to say cash vacuum.

我認為，我預計 SolarCity 明年將大致保持現金中性，考慮到所有因素。是的。這確實取決於我們在布法羅提高產量的速度。順便說一句，我認為之前在您的問題中您說的是搖錢樹，我想您的意思可能是說現金真空。

In your questions, that's not what I'm saying it is. We do think it's important to have tight control over the production of the solar panels in order to really -- in order to have a beautiful solar roof product, we've got to be able to iterate rapidly and have them made exactly the way we want them so that you have very high efficiency sales at the lowest cost. That's our objective.

在你的問題中，這不是我所說的。我們確實認為嚴格控制太陽能電池板的生產非常重要，以便真正 - 為了擁有漂亮的太陽能屋頂產品，我們必須能夠快速迭代並讓它們完全按照我們的方式製造想要它們，以便您以最低的成本進行非常高效的銷售。這就是我們的目標。

Just as we've been able to achieve that in partnership with Panasonic on the battery front; we have the best cell at the lowest price. That's a really good place to be and we're confident we can achieve that same outcome in solar. And while also creating a solar roof product that is better than a normal roof, looks better than a normal roof.

正如我們在電池方面與松下合作實現的那樣；我們以最低的價格擁有最好的電池。那是一個非常好的地方，我們相信我們可以在太陽能領域取得同樣的成果。同時還創造了比普通屋頂更好的太陽能屋頂產品，看起來比普通屋頂更好。

The [marker of C5 kit], as I mentioned before, if somebody has just installed a roof and the house is new, it's not going to make sense for them to go reroof the house. It makes more sense to have something that is -- solar panels that are added to the roof. But both someone that is building a house or where the roof is nearing its expiry date, then the solar roof is the right option.

正如我之前提到的，[C5 套件的標記]，如果有人剛剛安裝了屋頂並且房子是新的，那麼他們重新屋頂是沒有意義的。擁有一些東西更有意義 - 添加到屋頂的太陽能電池板。但是無論是在建造房屋的人還是在屋頂即將到期的地方，太陽能屋頂都是正確的選擇。

So the nice thing is you don't really cannibalize one from the other, they are two separate markets. And I think you will be quite pleasantly surprised by what we debut on Friday. It's exceeded my expectation. I don't want to jump the gun on that. You should really see what we unveil on Friday. I think it's really great.

所以好處是你並沒有真正蠶食另一個市場，它們是兩個獨立的市場。我想你會對我們在周五的首次亮相感到非常驚喜。它超出了我的預期。我不想在這件事上開槍。你真的應該看看我們週五揭曉的東西。我認為這真的很棒。

And then one more, maybe big picture and I will probably get made fun of this for asking, but stakeholders -- I've watched the work you're doing with SpaceX, and the statement you said about the reason you want to make money is for your work on interplanetary transport. How do you judge a Tesla shareholder versus a Tesla car holder? How do you delineate between where you give value versus the different stakeholders in the whole group there?

然後還有一張，也許是大局，我可能會因為問這個問題而被取笑，但是利益相關者——我看過你在 SpaceX 所做的工作，以及你所說的關於你想賺錢的原因的聲明是為了你在星際運輸方面的工作。您如何判斷特斯拉股東與特斯拉汽車持有人？您如何區分您在哪裡提供價值與整個團隊中的不同利益相關者？

I don't really think about it like that. It's really just we want to make products that people love and then make enough money up from that to be able to develop new product, and that's it. Really it's just -- there's so few products, how many products can you buy that you really love? It's so rare.

我真的不這麼想。我們真的只是想製造人們喜歡的產品，然後從中賺到足夠的錢來開發新產品，僅此而已。真的只是——產品這麼少，你能買到多少你真正喜歡的產品？它是如此罕見。

I think if you do something like that people will buy them. They will pay a premium for something that they love, of course. Then I think it ends up being a good outcome for shareholders because the whole purpose of any company existing is to make compelling products and services. Sometimes people lose sight of why companies should even exist.

我想如果你做這樣的事情，人們會買的。當然，他們會為自己喜歡的東西支付溢價。然後我認為這最終對股東來說是一個很好的結果，因為任何現有公司的全部目的都是製造引人注目的產品和服務。有時人們會忽略公司為什麼應該存在。

For example, would you scale back the growth of SolarCity, even though it's the greater good for the environment to be more cash flow positive, I guess is a good way to look at it.

例如，您是否會縮減 SolarCity 的增長，即使現金流為正對環境有更大的好處，我想這是一個很好的看待它的方式。

I don't think -- we have to look at this in long term, and if SolarCity is moving lots of money then that is not good for the long term. Investors will not support such a situation. So I think there may be some intermediate slowdowns, but this is actually with an eye towards ultimately moving way faster.

我不認為——我們必須從長遠來看，如果 SolarCity 正在轉移大量資金，那麼從長遠來看這並不好。投資者不會支持這種情況。所以我認為可能會有一些中間放緩，但這實際上是著眼於最終更快地移動。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝你。

James Albertine, Consumer Edge.

詹姆斯艾伯丁，消費者邊緣。

Great. Thank you and good afternoon. I wanted to ask a question if I may on battery costs, and particularly just an update on the Gigafactory and the impact of the Gigafactory on battery costs. It seems as we're getting closer to the opening that while there is some improvement going on in the background in terms of efficiencies of the battery cell production process and the trade secrets that you're working on between generation to generation of cell production, that at least 30% benefit from the Gigafactory. How should that filter into the model, of let's say over the course of the next six to eight months, between now and maybe when you start to talk more about Model 3 production? Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝你，下午好。我想問一個關於電池成本的問題，特別是關於 Gigafactory 的更新以及 Gigafactory 對電池成本的影響。似乎隨著我們越來越接近開幕式，雖然在電池生產過程的效率和您在一代又一代電池生產之間正在研究的商業機密方面有一些改進，至少 30% 的人從 Gigafactory 中受益。這應該如何過濾到模型中，比如說在接下來的六到八個月內，從現在到你開始談論更多關於 Model 3 生產的時候？謝謝。

Well, I'm not sure we want to give a detailed glide slope on this, but we're still very confident on the progress against the milestones we talked about previously. We're still confident that we'll have the best cell cost in the world when we start production, and I think those are really the most important metrics. In long term we see ongoing opportunities to keep driving that down as we add innovation into the manufacturing process and keep increasing scale.

好吧，我不確定我們是否要對此給出詳細的下滑，但我們仍然對我們之前談到的里程碑的進展非常有信心。我們仍然相信，當我們開始生產時，我們將擁有世界上最好的電池成本，我認為這些確實是最重要的指標。從長遠來看，隨著我們在製造過程中增加創新並不斷擴大規模，我們看到了不斷降低這種情況的機會。

And just to confirm when you're still expecting to begin production on the Gigafactory itself, and then just a quick product question. As it relates to what you've done with the Model S and the 100 kilowatt battery pack, thinking about a fully loaded optimized Model 3, which obviously is a smaller vehicle, is there a potential to see range? Again, this not a price sensitive question, but at the high end of the Model 3 side, is there a potential to see range extend significantly further than what we're seeing with the S and X? Thanks.

只是為了確認您仍然希望在 Gigafactory 本身上開始生產，然後只是一個快速的產品問題。由於它與您對 Model S 和 100 千瓦電池組所做的事情有關，考慮到滿載優化的 Model 3，這顯然是一輛更小的車輛，是否有可能看到續航里程？同樣，這不是一個價格敏感的問題，但在 Model 3 的高端，是否有可能看到範圍比我們在 S 和 X 上看到的更遠？謝謝。

Well maybe to your first question, we're still generally on track, as we stated, with the Gigafactory schedule and production. There's equipment being installed and being commissioned as we speak.

好吧，也許對於您的第一個問題，正如我們所說，我們總體上仍處於 Gigafactory 計劃和生產的軌道上。在我們說話的時候，正在安裝和調試設備。

There is a fairly extensive process of bringing that equipment online, starting up pilot production, validating the pilot production. So that is exactly what we're in the middle of and continuing to ramp up through the end of this year. So we feel good about where that's at and we feel that we are definitely on schedule for production for Model 3.

將設備上線、啟動試生產、驗證試生產有一個相當廣泛的過程。所以這正是我們正在做的事情，並在今年年底繼續增加。所以我們對目前的情況感覺很好，我們認為我們肯定按計劃生產 Model 3。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你。

Adam Jones, Morgan Stanley.

亞當·瓊斯，摩根士丹利。

Just one question about the autopilot software development. As you are putting the hardware and the software and learning capabilities in the entire suite of incremental production you're going to have lots and lots of very rich data that is going to be brought to you for analysis and processing and learning.

只有一個關於自動駕駛軟件開發的問題。當您將硬件、軟件和學習功能放入整個增量生產套件中時，您將擁有大量非常豐富的數據，這些數據將被提供給您進行分析、處理和學習。

And the question is when, Elon, would you say would be the earliest reasonable opportunity for you, and perhaps backed by the scientific community and your own community in your Company, to make the case, to make a strong case to the regulators with the empirical data as you get it and analyze it of the safety of the vehicles, even if not in a fully autonomous application, but even in a semi-autonomous so that you can bring more visibility and transparency to the urgent need to address the spiraling death and injury on our roads? Thanks.

問題是，埃隆，你認為什麼時候是你最早的合理機會，或許得到科學界和貴公司所在社區的支持，提出理由，向監管機構提出強有力的理由獲得併分析車輛安全性的經驗數據，即使不是在完全自動駕駛的應用程序中，而是在半自動駕駛的應用中，這樣您就可以為解決螺旋式死亡的迫切需求帶來更多的可見性和透明度和我們道路上的傷害？謝謝。

I should say we do work actually very closely on a daily basis, and have for a long time, with NHTSA and other regulatory agencies around the world really at a very detailed level. So they're certainly aware of the nitty-gritty, and as I've said before, we already see a significant improvement in safety with semi-autonomous features.

我應該說，我們實際上每天都在非常密切地工作，而且很長一段時間以來，我們都與 NHTSA 和世界各地的其他監管機構進行了非常詳細的合作。所以他們當然知道細節，正如我之前所說，我們已經看到半自主功能的安全性有了顯著改善。

And what lessons about the outside is -- are early the cases where the version one of autopilot actually liked to mitigate the accident. So that the impact velocity went from being potentially fatal or severe injury to customer stepped out and walked away.

關於外部的教訓是——早期的第一版自動駕駛儀實際上喜歡減輕事故。從而使衝擊速度從潛在的致命或嚴重傷害轉變為客戶走出並走開。

There are many of those which provides a much more statistically significant sample set than fatalities. Because fatalities are extremely rare, and you need really 1 billion miles or more to try to achieve a statistically significant conclusion on fatalities.

其中有許多提供了比死亡人數更具統計意義的樣本集。因為死亡事故極為罕見，您需要真正行駛 10 億英里或更多里程才能對死亡事故得出具有統計意義的結論。

But as our fleet grows, and it's growing rapidly, the number of semi-autonomous miles grows to the point where I think we are now starting to approach 1.5 million, almost 1.5 million miles per day of autopilot through all kinds of road conditions and weather throughout the world. The more time that goes by the more miles we accumulate, the stronger the argument gets, but the confidence interval tighten and it becomes clearer and clearer. So I'm really quite optimistic about where things are and where they're headed on that front. I think they are headed to a good place.

但是隨著我們車隊的增長，而且它正在迅速增長，半自動駕駛里程的數量增長到我認為我們現在開始接近 150 萬英里的程度，幾乎每天 150 萬英里的自動駕駛通過各種路況和天氣遍及世界。時間越長，我們積累的里程越多，論證就越有力，但置信區間越來越緊，變得越來越清晰。所以我對事情在哪里以及他們在這方面的發展方向非常樂觀。我認為他們正在前往一個好地方。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Jeff Osborne, Cowen and Company.

傑夫奧斯本，考恩公司。

Good afternoon. Just two questions on my end. One, how do we think about the cadence of CapEx? Should it in 2017, should it persist at a continued rate in the first half of 2017 up into the Model 3 launch at a similar run rate as you're seeing here Q4? Or what's the thought process there?

下午好。我這邊只有兩個問題。一，我們如何看待資本支出的節奏？如果在 2017 年，它是否應該在 2017 年上半年以與您在第四季度看到的相似的運行速度持續到 2017 年上半年推出 Model 3？或者那裡的思考過程是什麼？

You will see a ramp up in Q2, in Q1 and Q2 as you would expect as we get closer to production. And then a lot of the payments come after we start productions in Q3, Q4. And there will be obviously expenditures on new vehicle development.

隨著我們接近生產，您將看到第二季度、第一季度和第二季度的增長。然後很多付款是在我們在第三季度、第四季度開始製作之後進行的。新車開發顯然會有支出。

Expect it to ramp up a fair bit over time, but I stand by what I said earlier which is currently if we did not go out and raise a bunch of money, our current plan says we don't need to raise any money. It gets a little scary in terms of how much capital we have in the bank relative to our sales volume, but currently it's raised capital it's something it's nice to have, not a necessity.

預計隨著時間的推移它會逐漸增加，但我堅持我之前所說的，目前如果我們沒有出去籌集大量資金，我們目前的計劃說我們不需要籌集任何資金。相對於我們的銷售額而言，我們在銀行擁有多少資金，這有點令人恐懼，但目前它是籌集資金，擁有它是一件好事，而不是必需品。

And maybe it's a smart move to derisk things and all that. So just looking at the bigger picture, taking into account also that we're designing the 3 program to be a cash generator, that the faster the 3 grows the stronger our cash position. I don't think you need to worry too much about CapEx being a dilutive event or something like that.

也許這是一個明智的舉動，以貶低事情和所有這些。因此，從更大的角度來看，同時考慮到我們正在將 3 計劃設計為現金生成器，3 增長越快，我們的現金狀況就越強。我認為您不必太擔心資本支出會成為稀釋事件或類似事件。

Just so it's clear, what Elon is talking about is a step up from our Q3 levels, not a step up from Q4.

很明顯，埃隆所說的是從我們的第三季度水平提升，而不是從第四季度提升。

Do you care to throw a number out there for CapEx for 2017 at this point, or do you think of it flattish but front-end loaded on 2017 versus 2016? Too early to say?

您是否願意在這一點上為 2017 年的資本支出提供一個數字，或者您是否認為它在 2017 年與 2016 年相比持平但前端加載？說得太早了？

Higher in 2017 than 2016 for sure.

2017 年肯定高於 2016 年。

Then, around CapEx as well, any thoughts on partner commitments to Gigafactory? What's the trend there? And then also I might have missed it, but what's the reservation count for Model 3? I missed that in the release if it was there.

那麼，圍繞資本支出，對合作夥伴對 Gigafactory 的承諾有何想法？那裡的趨勢是什麼？然後我也可能錯過了，但是 Model 3 的預訂數是多少？如果它在那裡，我在版本中錯過了它。

We see very strong supplier commitments on Model 3. We don't see any deficit in supply commitments there. They're very strong. This is the most interesting vehicle program, maybe the most interesting product program in the world. And so suppliers really want to be a part of something like this.

我們在 Model 3 上看到了非常強大的供應商承諾。我們沒有看到那裡的供應承諾有任何不足。他們非常強壯。這是最有趣的車輛計劃，也許是世界上最有趣的產品計劃。所以供應商真的很想成為這樣的事情的一部分。

As for the 3 deposit number, this is not something we comment on and not something that is a figure of merit in any way. We do no promotion of Model 3, we don't advertise, but we don't advertise in general, but we don't -- how often do you see me mentioning a Model 3? I think people sometimes forget that all we did for the Model 3 was a half hour webcast. There's no advertising, no guerrilla marketing campaign.

至於 3 存款號碼，這不是我們評論的東西，也不是任何形式的品質因數。我們不宣傳 Model 3，我們不做廣告，但我們一般不做廣告，但我們不——你多久看到我提到 Model 3？我想人們有時會忘記我們為 Model 3 所做的只是半小時的網絡直播。沒有廣告，沒有游擊營銷活動。

We sent out a few tweets like hey, there's going to be a webcast, and a lot of people decided they wanted to place a deposit for the car, which is cool. But we didn't want to get people too distracted from today's product in favor of tomorrow's product. And then when somebody comes into our store to buy a Model 3, we say well why don't you buy a Model S or an X instead?

我們發出了一些推文，比如嘿，將會有一個網絡直播，很多人決定他們想為這輛車存入押金，這很酷。但我們不想讓人們過於關註今天的產品而偏向於明天的產品。然後當有人來我們店買 Model 3 時，我們會說，你為什麼不買 Model S 或 X 呢？

So we anti-sell the 3. Still a lot of people ordered the 3, but whatever. Plus the 3, we're basically sold out the first year of production. So a good 12 months of production or thereabouts. So what's the point of trying to sell the 13th month of production? Very little to be had there in doing so.

所以我們反售 3。仍然有很多人訂購了 3，但無論如何。加上3，我們第一年的生產基本上就賣光了。所以一個很好的12個月左右的生產。那麼嘗試銷售第 13 個月的產品有什麼意義呢？這樣做的好處很少。

Perfect. Thanks so much for all the details. I appreciate it.

完美的。非常感謝所有的細節。我很感激。

David Tamberrino, Goldman Sachs.

大衛·坦貝里諾，高盛。

Thank you. Just want to circle back on a couple of things said earlier. First on the autopilot, you mentioned that you worked very closely with NHTSA.

謝謝你。只是想回到前面說的幾件事。首先在自動駕駛儀上，您提到您與 NHTSA 密切合作。

I'm wondering what your take is on the push from the recent document, the Federal Autonomous Vehicles Policy, that really is looking for data sharing among OEMs? I think you're probably clearly in the lead with vehicles on the road and miles per day of data that you are aggregating, wondering what your take is on potentially opening that up and sharing with some of your competitors?

我想知道您對最近的文件聯邦自動駕駛汽車政策的推動有何看法，該政策真的在尋找原始設備製造商之間的數據共享？我認為您可能在道路上行駛的車輛和每天收集的數據中處於領先地位，想知道您對可能開放這些數據並與您的一些競爭對手共享有何看法？

We'd be happy to share information with our competitors that would help improve safety. Happy to do so.

我們很樂意與競爭對手分享有助於提高安全性的信息。很高興這樣做。

Interesting. Then the second one is really just on the cost side, you think about a traditional OEM and their supplier relationships, there's typically annual price downs ranging in the 1% to 3% range, sometimes more for more commoditized products. And you're very vertically integrated. I wonder how you think about internal price downs and gaining economies of scale for the Model 3 and what you're really looking to achieve from an operational efficiency standpoint on an annual basis with the parts that you have going into your vehicles?

有趣的。然後第二個真的只是在成本方面，你想想傳統的 OEM 和他們的供應商關係，通常每年的降價幅度在 1% 到 3% 之間，有時更多的是商品化的產品。而且你是非常垂直整合的。我想知道您如何看待 Model 3 的內部價格下降和獲得規模經濟，以及從運營效率的角度來看，您真正希望通過您的車輛零件每年實現什麼目標？

Model 3 efficiency as a whole, that really is a quantum change in productivity, like really crazy. I mentioned this before, but as we go to high volumes what really matters is the factory.

Model 3 的整體效率，這真的是生產力的巨大變化，就像真的瘋了一樣。我之前提到過這一點，但是當我們大批量生產時，真正重要的是工廠。

The machine that designs the machine. The machine that creates the machine is -- becomes actually of greater significance, much greater significance than the machine itself.

設計機器的機器。創造機器的機器——實際上變得更重要，比機器本身更重要。

That's where we have most of our engineering team working on. So our internal code name for the factory machine that builds the machine is the Alien Dreadnought. The point at which our factory looks like an alien dreadnought, then we know it's probably right.

這就是我們大部分工程團隊的工作所在。所以我們製造機器的工廠機器的內部代號是外星人無畏。當我們的工廠看起來像外星無畏艦時，我們就知道這可能是對的。

So we think with Model 3 will be Alien Dreadnought version 0.5 approximately. Then it will take us about another year or so, I don't know, summer 2018 to actually get to Alien Dreadnought version 1.

所以我們認為 Model 3 將是 Alien Dreadnought 版本 0.5 左右。然後我們需要大約一年左右的時間，我不知道，2018 年夏天才能真正到達 Alien Dreadnought 版本 1。

I'm a little bit hazy on quantifying crazy, is there any rule of thumb that you can point to with what you're looking to achieve, at least in terms of bringing the cost down from a component level from the S to the 3, not even thinking about the X given the increasing complexity that was involved with the vehicle?

我對量化瘋狂有點模糊，有沒有什麼經驗法則可以指出你想要實現的目標，至少在將成本從組件級別從 S 降低到 3 方面，考慮到車輛的複雜性越來越高，甚至不考慮 X 嗎？

It's a rough approximation. We think it could be about half.

這是一個粗略的近似。我們認為這可能是一半左右。

Okay.

好的。

It's not like everything is half, some things are way less than half the cost and some things are more than half the cost, but on average about half.

這並不是說一切都是一半，有些東西的成本不到一半，有些東西的成本超過一半，但平均約為一半。

Predominantly internally sourced?

主要是內部採購？

Well, it depends on how you consider the value chain, but yes, I guess arguably it's the majority internally sourced. But there's still a huge number of suppliers. The thing that happens when you're -- once you start making almost all major subsystems internally, your supplier count actually grows dramatically. You have far more suppliers, not far fewer, but they're at the component level not at the major subsystem level.

好吧，這取決於您如何考慮價值鏈，但是是的，我想可以說它是內部採購的大多數。但仍有大量供應商。當您開始在內部製造幾乎所有主要子系統時，就會發生這種情況，您的供應商數量實際上會急劇增長。你有更多的供應商，而不是更少，但他們處於組件級別而不是主要子系統級別。

Just one thing I'd add to that too, regardless of sourcing supplier, the way to think about cost, and this goes all the way back to first principles; what's the value of the commodities in the part? What does it cost to reasonably turn those commodities into a usable part? What's reasonable labor and overhead? And that's how we think about all material cost decisions, internal or external.

我還要補充一件事，不管採購供應商，考慮成本的方式，這一直追溯到第一原則；該部分商品的價值是多少？將這些商品合理地轉化為可用部分的成本是多少？什麼是合理的人工和間接費用？這就是我們考慮所有內部或外部材料成本決策的方式。

Our long-term aspiration for the machine that builds the machine, the factory dreadnought thing, is the long-term aspiration is limited physics. I'd maybe call it limited physics manufacturing.

我們對製造機器的機器的長期願望，工廠無畏的東西，長期的願望是有限的物理學。我可能會稱之為有限的物理製造。

We should be moving on to the next question.

我們應該繼續下一個問題。

Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets.

Joseph Spak，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thanks. I wanted to ask a question on the leasing. I know you pointed out that the percent of vehicles that are subject to the RVG this period I think declined by 4 points. And I don't know whether this was coincidental or not, but it looks like the direct lease percentage also went up by about 4 points. As you dwindle down the RVGs, are you planning that the ultimately straight is somewhere in that low to mid-30% range?

謝謝。我想問一個關於租賃的問題。我知道您指出，我認為這段時期受 RVG 約束的車輛百分比下降了 4 個百分點。而且我不知道這是否是巧合，但看起來直接租賃百分比也上升了大約 4 個百分點。當您減少 RVG 時，您是否計劃最終的直道在 30% 的中低範圍內？

There's a bunch of different levers here. So one that is worth pointing out and we haven't talked a lot about is we've put out some very compelling loan products in the marketplace.

這裡有很多不同的槓桿。因此，值得指出的一點是，我們還沒有談論太多，我們已經在市場上推出了一些非常引人注目的貸款產品。

We're working with partners.

我們正在與合作夥伴合作。

Different partners; through partners. So of course we always want to continue to do that, and we're always looking for ways where we can provide compelling and useful financing programs for our consumers. Whether they lease through a partner, whether that is a loan through a partner, or whether we leverage our own balance sheet in the case of a direct lease, we'll do that too.

不同的合作夥伴；通過合作夥伴。因此，我們當然一直希望繼續這樣做，並且我們一直在尋找可以為消費者提供引人注目且有用的融資計劃的方法。無論他們是通過合作夥伴租賃，還是通過合作夥伴貸款，或者在直接租賃的情況下我們是否利用自己的資產負債表，我們也會這樣做。

Really it's about the consumer experience, and if we can use other folk's capital for that, great. If we use our capital for it, that is fine too and we're willing to make those decisions.

真的是關於消費者體驗，如果我們可以利用其他人的資金來實現這一點，那就太好了。如果我們用我們的資金來做這件事，那也很好，我們願意做出這些決定。

Okay. And then just back on autonomous, maybe to ask Adam's question a little bit different way, Elon, you talked about a cross-country trip in 2017, but in terms of turning it on for the consumer, I think in the past you said you need about 6 billion miles travel for regulatory approval. If I just do some crude math, based on your delivery time line that seems like at some point in 2018 you'll get there, maybe it's a year or so later if you believe consensus deliveries. But if you put aside the regulatory issues, is that roughly the timeframe you think it's ready for the consumer?

好的。然後回到自動駕駛，也許問亞當的問題有點不同，埃隆，你談到了 2017 年的一次越野旅行，但就為消費者開啟它而言，我想過去你說過你需要大約 60 億英里的行程才能獲得監管部門的批准。如果我只是做一些粗略的數學計算，根據您的交付時間線，您似乎會在 2018 年的某個時候到達那裡，如果您相信共識交付，也許要一年左右。但如果你把監管問題放在一邊，你認為它是否已經為消費者做好了準備？

I think the timeframe that we think it is ready and then the timeframe that regulators will approve, you've got to present the data to them, they've got to think about it, and they've got to render a verdict and that can sometimes be a long process. And it can vary quite a bit by jurisdiction.

我認為我們認為它已經準備好的時間表，然後是監管機構批准的時間表，你必須向他們提供數據，他們必須考慮，他們必須做出裁決，然後有時可能是一個漫長的過程。而且它可能因管轄權而有很大差異。

I think we may see some jurisdictions giving the okay a lot sooner than others. But when you think about the global average fatalities, it's somewhere around 60 -- one fatality every 60 million miles on a global basis.

我認為我們可能會看到一些司法管轄區比其他司法管轄區更早給予批准。但是，當您考慮全球平均死亡人數時，大約是 60 人——全球每 6000 萬英里就有一人死亡。

So if you are at 6 billion miles you're 100 times the -- what the fatalities per mile. You really start to get quite statistically significant at that point. And it can make quite a strong argument I believe at that point that it would be morally wrong not to allow autonomous driving.

因此，如果您在 60 億英里處，您將是每英里死亡人數的 100 倍。那時你真的開始在統計上變得非常顯著。它可以提出一個非常有力的論點，我認為在這一點上不允許自動駕駛在道德上是錯誤的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

We're coming up on the hour mark. We have one other analyst on the call, and then we have some journalists we definitely want to hear from as well. So let's -- you want to go a little bit over an hour here, Elon?

我們正趕上小時標記。我們有另一位分析師在電話中，然後我們也有一些我們肯定想听到的記者。所以讓我們——你想在這裡多花一個多小時嗎，埃隆？

Sure.

當然。

Chanel, let's have the next question, please.

香奈兒，讓我們有下一個問題，拜託。

Charlie Anderson, Dougherty and Company.

查理·安德森，多爾蒂公司。

Thank you. I'll just ask one question. There was a reference to the Tesla network and the ability to buy self-driving today. So I wonder, Elon, if you could talk maybe philosophically about how you are viewing Tesla network? Is it something that will generate income for Tesla to help develop future products, et cetera, at a reasonable gross margin? Or is it something that you'll use more for market share gain to help people offset the price of the car long term? Thanks.

謝謝你。我只問一個問題。提到了特斯拉網絡和今天購買自動駕駛的能力。所以我想知道，埃隆，您是否可以從哲學上談論您如何看待特斯拉網絡？是否會為特斯拉創造收入，以合理的毛利率幫助開發未來的產品等等？還是您會更多地使用它來獲得市場份額，以幫助人們長期抵消汽車的價格？謝謝。

Okay. I think it's a bit of both, really. This would be something that would be a significant offset on the cost of ownership of a car, and then a revenue generator for Tesla as well. Obviously the majority of the economics would go to the owner of the car.

好的。我認為兩者兼而有之，真的。這將是對汽車擁有成本的重大抵消，然後也是特斯拉的收入來源。顯然，大部分經濟利益將歸於車主。

Sometimes it's been characterized as Tesla versus or Uber or Lyft or something like that. It's not Tesla versus Uber, it's the people versus Uber.

有時它被描述為特斯拉與優步或 Lyft 或類似的東西。這不是特斯拉對優步，而是人們對優步。

All right, Charlie?

好嗎，查理？

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Daniel Sparks, The Motley Fool.

丹尼爾·斯帕克斯，《雜色的傻瓜》。

Thanks for including us in the call. I just wanted to get a little perspective on, I noticed in the shareholder letter, the narrative kind of shifted. In Q2 you were saying that you're aiming toward volume production toward the end of 2017.

感謝您加入我們的電話。我只是想了解一下，我在股東信中註意到，敘述方式發生了變化。在第二季度，您說您的目標是在 2017 年底實現量產。

But now the letter is saying you're looking for volume deliveries in the second half of 2017. Am I just reading into this too much, or does that reflect a greater confidence on Management's part?

但現在這封信說你正在尋找 2017 年下半年的批量交付。我只是讀得太多了，還是這反映了管理層更大的信心？

I think our confidence has been practically the same. Obviously as time goes by there is some amount of the uncertainty is collapsed, and so I guess you could call that confidence. But yes, it's looking good for production volume second half of 2017.

我認為我們的信心實際上是一樣的。顯然，隨著時間的推移，一些不確定性已經消失，所以我想你可以稱之為信心。但是，是的，2017 年下半年的產量看起來不錯。

As always, I really want to remind people that a car consists of several thousand unique items. We can only go as fast as the slowest item. And so what we're trying to do in advance of 3 production is to increase the scope of Tesla's internal capabilities so that we are internally capable of making almost anything.

與往常一樣，我真的想提醒人們，一輛汽車由數千種獨特的物品組成。我們只能走最慢的項目。所以我們在生產 3 之前嘗試做的是擴大特斯拉內部能力的範圍，以便我們在內部能夠製造幾乎任何東西。

Kind of like reserve troops. You don't know exactly where they will be needed, but it's a good idea to have them. And so that we can minimize the degree to which a single supplier can stop the entire production line.

有點像預備役部隊。您不確切知道哪裡需要它們，但擁有它們是個好主意。這樣我們就可以將單個供應商停止整條生產線的程度降到最低。

Okay. Great. And then as Model S and Model X with higher levels of sales recently, high levels of deliveries, and as Model 3 approaches, do you feel confident in these levels as Model 3 approaches? I know that we haven't talked too much about 2017, but just speaking as far as trajectory for those deliveries go and how we could think about it?

好的。偉大的。然後隨著 Model S 和 Model X 最近銷量更高，交付量也更高，隨著 Model 3 的臨近，隨著 Model 3 的臨近，你對這些水平有信心嗎？我知道我們沒有過多地談論 2017 年，但只是談到了這些交付的軌跡以及我們如何考慮它？

Another thing I really want to emphasize is the production ramp tends to look like -- is exponential. Ultimately it is an S-curve. An exponential goes to linear then goes to log. And it's very difficult to predict exactly where that beginning part of the exponential and the S-curve fits in between quarterly reporting.

我真正想強調的另一件事是，生產坡度往往看起來像 - 是指數級的。最終它是一個S曲線。指數變為線性，然後變為對數。並且很難準確預測指數和 S 曲線的起始部分在季度報告之間的位置。

A shift of even a few weeks one way or the other can have quite a dramatic effect on what it looks like in that quarter, but that's not indicative of the future. So we're telling you what we -- we're giving you the best assessment we have short of having a crystal ball.

一種或另一種方式甚至幾週的轉變都會對該季度的情況產生相當大的影響，但這並不代表未來。所以我們告訴你我們 - 我們正在給你最好的評估，我們沒有水晶球。

I think things will look very good exiting 2017, but it will be complicated and bumpy and dealing with a lot of unexpected issues in the first -- at the beginning of Model 3 production in Q3, Q4. Q3 particularly is very uncertain because it is the beginning of an exponential. It gets pretty clear in Q4, then it starts to be really crisp in the Q1/Q2 timeframe of 2018.

我認為 2017 年之後的情況看起來會非常好，但在第一季度，在第三季度和第四季度開始生產 Model 3 時，它會變得複雜而崎嶇不平，並且會處理很多意想不到的問題。 Q3 特別是非常不確定，因為它是指數的開始。它在第四季度變得非常清晰，然後在 2018 年第一季度/第二季度開始變得非常清晰。

All right, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝你。

Tim Higgins, WSJ.

蒂姆·希金斯，華爾街日報。

Thanks for making time, I appreciate it. Just to go back to the capital issue, I hear you saying you don't need to raise capital this year, and I hear that you probably won't do it in the first quarter of next year, but what about next year in general? Should we look at that as a second half or first half event? You want to raise capital in the first half of next year, even if you don't need it?

感謝您抽出時間，我很感激。回到資本問題，我聽你說今年不需要融資，我聽說明年第一季度你可能不會做，但是明年一般情況如何?我們應該將其視為下半場事件還是上半場事件？你想在明年上半年籌集資金，即使你不需要它？

I think we cannot make -- actually I don't think it's legal for us to make specific predictions of certainty in respect to doing an equity raise or something like that. It's really exactly what I said before, which is our current projections, and this should probably be taken with a grain of salt, current predictions say we don't need to go out and raise a bunch of equity. There could be unexpected negative things that occur, there could be some global macros, economic slowdown that could be -- who knows what could happen. And so there may be value in derisking the business and just having higher capital reserves. We're not ready to make that decision yet.

我認為我們不能做出 - 實際上我認為我們對進行股權融資或類似的事情做出具體的確定性預測是不合法的。這真的正是我之前所說的，這是我們目前的預測，這可能應該持保留態度，目前的預測表明我們不需要出去籌集大量股權。可能會發生意想不到的負面事情，可能會出現一些全球宏觀經濟放緩——誰知道會發生什麼。因此，降低業務風險並擁有更高的資本儲備可能是有價值的。我們還沒有準備好做出這個決定。

Okay great. Thank you.

好，太棒了。謝謝你。

Phil LeBeau, CNBC.

菲爾·勒博，CNBC。

Hello, Elon. Quick question, in your shareholder letter you mentioned that you are continuing to explore possibilities for expanding production to Asia and Europe. As you start to look at the production ramp and expanding your facilities in Fremont, do you have a timeframe for when you might make a decision in terms of, I think this is when we will probably make some kind of a decision about another production facility, whether it's in China, whether it's in Europe, wherever it might be somewhere beyond Fremont?

你好，埃隆。快速提問，在您的股東信中，您提到您正在繼續探索將生產擴展到亞洲和歐洲的可能性。當您開始考慮生產坡道並在弗里蒙特擴展您的設施時，您是否有一個時間表來決定何時做出決定，我認為這是我們可能會就另一個生產設施做出某種決定的時候，無論是在中國，還是在歐洲，無論是在弗里蒙特以外的什麼地方？

Right now we're really focused on Gigafactory 1 and Model 3. We're spending very little time on facilities outside of Fremont, California and Sparks, Nevada. So it's really hard to say at this point except to say it's pretty obvious that long term you want to have your production close to your consumption so don't have massive logistics costs transporting cars halfway around the world.

目前，我們真正專注於 Gigafactory 1 和 Model 3。我們在加利福尼亞州弗里蒙特和內華達州斯帕克斯以外的設施上花費的時間很少。所以在這一點上真的很難說，除了說很明顯，從長遠來看，你希望你的生產接近你的消費，所以不要有巨大的物流成本將汽車運輸到半個世界。

And yes, so that's -- I think we're probably not ready to talk about that now and we just don't have a fully formed idea now. Probably end up talking about that next year.

是的，那就是——我認為我們現在可能還沒有準備好談論這個問題，而且我們現在還沒有一個完全形成的想法。明年可能最終會談論這個。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你。

I'm showing no further questions on the phone lines at this time.

目前我沒有在電話線上提出其他問題。

All right, thanks a lot, Chanel, and thank you everyone for joining us today.

好的，非常感謝，香奈兒，感謝大家今天加入我們。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes today's program, you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。今天的節目到此結束，大家可以斷線了。每個人都有美好的一天。