特斯拉 (TSLA) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla First Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉 2017 年第一季度財務業績問答電話。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Jeff Evanson.

我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人 Jeff Evanson 先生。

Mr. Evanson, you may begin.

埃文森先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝雪莉，大家下午好。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Deepak Ahuja, Jon McNeill and Lyndon Rive.

今天加入我的還有 Elon Musk、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja、Jon McNeill 和 Lyndon Rive。

And today on our webcast, we'll discuss our Q1 results that are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast.

今天在我們的網絡廣播中，我們將討論我們在更新信中公佈的第一季度業績，這些結果與該網絡廣播的鏈接相同。

And during our call, we will discuss our business outlook, make some forward-looking statements.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景，做出一些前瞻性陳述。

These are all based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些都是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We'll start today's call with some brief remarks from Elon, and then we'll jump right into Q&A.

我們將從 Elon 的一些簡短評論開始今天的電話會議，然後我們將直接進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And with that, I'll turn it over to you, Elon.

有了這個，我會把它交給你，埃隆。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So yes, welcome to the call.

所以，是的，歡迎來電。

And I'd like to welcome Deepak Ahuja back to Tesla as CFO.

我想歡迎 Deepak Ahuja 回到特斯拉擔任首席財務官。

And yes, it's -- welcome back.

是的，這是 - 歡迎回來。

Thank you, Elon.

謝謝你，埃隆。

Appreciate that, and I'm really excited to be back.

欣賞這一點，我真的很高興能回來。

Cool.

涼爽的。

All right.

好的。

So yes, we'll just go right into Q&A.

所以是的，我們將直接進入問答環節。

Overall, I'm very proud of Tesla for our accomplishments in the first quarter.

總的來說，我為特斯拉在第一季度取得的成就感到非常自豪。

And I think second quarter's going to be great, too.

我認為第二季度也會很棒。

And yes, so overall, I think we're executing well, and I'm feeling quite optimistic about the future.

是的，總的來說，我認為我們執行得很好，我對未來感到非常樂觀。

All right.

好的。

Sherry, let's have the first question, please.

雪莉，請讓我們來回答第一個問題。

Our first question comes from Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

我們的第一個問題來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Jaffray。

There's been a fair amount of debate recently, both amongst investors, I think, but also within the supply chain about the segments within the transportation ecosystem that will sort of forever be off-limits to Tesla because of physical limitations of electric drivetrain, specifically as it relates to weight and energy density and things of that nature.

我認為，最近在投資者之間以及供應鏈內部都存在相當多的爭論，關於運輸生態系統中的部分，由於電動傳動系統的物理限制，特斯拉將永遠禁止進入，特別是它與重量和能量密度以及這種性質的事物有關。

Presumably, you'd disagree, but I'd be interested in hearing maybe why you disagree.

大概，你會不同意，但我很想听聽你為什麼不同意。

Why you think Tesla can compete in those segments whereas other people think diesel or fuel cells or other options would be better?

為什麼你認為特斯拉可以在這些領域競爭，而其他人認為柴油或燃料電池或其他選擇會更好？

Are you thinking of things like heavy trucking?

您是否在考慮諸如重型卡車之類的事情？

For instance, yes.

例如，是的。

That's -- I mean, I guess, different people draw the line in different areas, but as an example, yes.

那是——我的意思是，我猜，不同的人在不同的領域劃清界限，但作為一個例子，是的。

Yes.

是的。

I mean I'm not sure -- I'm absolutely confident that the electric car trains will -- electric vehicles will occupy everything without exception.

我的意思是我不確定——我絕對相信電動汽車列車將——電動汽車將毫無例外地佔據一切。

And I don't want to jump the gun on the Tesla semi-truck announcement we're unveiling later this year, but it's -- I think it's going to be a cool product and will defy people's expectations on what an electric truck can do.

我不想在今年晚些時候發布的特斯拉半卡車公告上開槍，但它是——我認為這將是一個很酷的產品，並且會打破人們對電動卡車能做什麼的期望.

So I really do not see any segment of transport that will not be electric.

所以我真的看不到任何非電動的運輸部分。

In fact, I'm highly confident that all transport will go fully electric, with the ironic exception of rockets, yes.

事實上，我非常有信心所有交通工具都將全電動化，具有諷刺意味的是，火箭除外，是的。

[If you know your] way around Newton's third law.

[如果你知道你的] 繞過牛頓第三定律的方法。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And then I guess maybe one Model 3 question here.

然後我猜這裡可能有一個 Model 3 問題。

I know it's maybe early days, is there in a way to gauge sort of what you think the trim and option uptake is going to look like on the Model 3 just to give folks an idea on what the pricing and margin profile might look like.

我知道這可能還為時過早，有沒有一種方法可以衡量你認為 Model 3 上的裝飾和選件採用率會是什麼樣子，只是為了讓人們了解定價和利潤率概況可能是什麼樣子。

I mean, it's really guesswork at this point.

我的意思是，在這一點上真的是猜測。

But if it were to be comparable to what we see with, say, Model S or with other vehicles in the market.

但如果它要與我們看到的模型 S 或市場上的其他車輛相媲美。

It's something like a 20% to 30% increment over the (inaudible) would be the typical average.

這類似於（聽不清）典型平均值的 20% 到 30% 的增量。

Jon, do you have any...

喬恩，你有什麼...

Yes, I think that's right.

是的，我認為這是正確的。

And that's -- we experience a little bit higher than that in Model S. And Model S in comparison to Model 3 has more range, has more power, has more cargo, et cetera.

那就是——我們的體驗比 Model S 高一點。與 Model 3 相比，Model S 的續航里程更大，動力更強，載貨更多，等等。

And we'll be introducing at the start of production, I think we'll be announcing our vehicle -- as we get closer to the start of production what these vehicle stacks will be, but I think 20% is a fair number to use.

我們將在生產開始時介紹，我認為我們將宣布我們的車輛——隨著我們接近生產開始，這些車輛堆棧將是什麼，但我認為 20% 是一個合理的使用數字.

Yes, actually, just to reemphasize that, I might repeat this a few times on the call.

是的，實際上，為了再次強調這一點，我可能會在電話會議上重複幾次。

We want to be super clear that Model 3 is not version 3 of our car.

我們想非常清楚 Model 3 不是我們汽車的第 3 版。

The Model 3 is essentially a smaller, more affordable version of the Model S with fewer features.

Model 3 本質上是 Model S 的更小、更實惠的版本，但功能更少。

But the Model S and the Model 3 will be at the same level of technology.

但 Model S 和 Model 3 將處於同一技術水平。

And if you were to -- if you were to put a version on, say, what -- I would say probably on version 4 of Model S, and Model 3 will also be version 4. If you make it like the essentially a first -- when Model S first came out, it was rear-wheel drive.

如果你要——如果你要在什麼上放一個版本——我可能會說是在 Model S 的第 4 版上，而 Model 3 也將是第 4 版。如果你把它做成基本上是第一個——Model S剛問世時，它是後輪驅動的。

And then we had Dual Motor all-wheel drive, we had initial Hardware 1 Autopilot and then Hardware 2 Autopilot, and there was a facial refresh.

然後我們有了雙電機全輪驅動，我們有最初的硬件 1 自動駕駛儀，然後是硬件 2 自動駕駛儀，並且進行了面部更新。

There have been roughly 4 versions of Model S, and we're on the fourth version.

Model S 大約有 4 個版本，我們正在使用第四個版本。

Model 3 will also be version 4. It's a little confusing because one's a letter and the other's a number.

Model 3 也將是版本 4。這有點令人困惑，因為一個是字母，另一個是數字。

And Model 3 was supposed to be called the Model E, but then Ford threatened to sue us.

而 Model 3 本來應該被稱為 Model E，但後來福特威脅要起訴我們。

And then I thought we're being all clever by calling it the Model 3, but actually the joke's on me because it caused confusion in the marketplace.

然後我認為我們都稱它為 Model 3 很聰明，但實際上我是在開玩笑，因為它在市場上引起了混亂。

So we're doing our best to clear up that confusion so people do not think that Model 3 is somehow superior to Model S. Actually, Model S will be better than Model 3 as it should be because it's a more expensive car.

所以我們正在盡最大努力消除這種混淆，所以人們不會認為 Model 3 在某種程度上優於 Model S。實際上，Model S 會比 Model 3 更好，因為它是一輛更昂貴的汽車。

We're going to be -- sound like a broken record on this front, and the messaging might get a little annoying, but we really have to be emphatic to clear up an error, which I think is my responsibility, in naming something that inherently would cause confusion with marketing.

我們將——在這方面聽起來像是一個破紀錄，而且消息傳遞可能會有點煩人，但我們真的必須強調清除錯誤，我認為這是我的責任，在命名一些東西時本質上會引起與營銷的混淆。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

I was wondering if you could maybe give us an update qualitatively or quantitatively on how investors should think about battery costs.

我想知道您是否可以定性或定量地向我們提供有關投資者應如何考慮電池成本的最新信息。

I think your last public statement was that Tesla's battery cost early last year was under $190 per kilowatt hour.

我認為你上一次公開聲明是特斯拉去年初的電池成本低於每千瓦時 190 美元。

If we look at how Powerwall 2, there's been significant improvement in cost per kilowatt and in density.

如果我們看一下 Powerwall 2，每千瓦成本和密度都有顯著改善。

But I think if we try and do the math on Powerwall 2, we'd still come up with a number that's reasonably high.

但我認為，如果我們嘗試對 Powerwall 2 進行數學計算，我們仍然會得出一個相當高的數字。

So maybe can help us -- I think in the past, Elon, you've said that you hope to get to $100 per kilowatt hour by 2020.

所以也許可以幫助我們——我想過去，埃隆，你說過你希望到 2020 年達到每千瓦時 100 美元。

And I recognize that's aspirational.

我承認這是有抱負的。

But maybe you can help us a little bit frame how we should think about battery cost today, what kind of improvement you're seeing from -- or expect to see with 2170 batteries in vehicles going forward.

但也許您可以幫助我們了解一下我們應該如何考慮今天的電池成本，您從中看到了什麼樣的改進——或者期待在未來的車輛中看到 2170 電池。

I mean, regarding numbers for cost (inaudible) [are close how competitive] is the information except that we do expect to see significant improvements year-over-year as much as improving the core chemistry of the cell, reducing essentially the cell mass that is inactive and, of course, mass economies of scale and vertical integration at the Gigafactory.

我的意思是，關於成本數字（聽不清）[競爭程度接近]是信息，除了我們確實希望看到同比顯著改善，就像改善電池的核心化學一樣，基本上減少了電池質量是不活躍的，當然，Gigafactory 的大規模規模經濟和垂直整合。

These will all take time to bear fruit, but there will be significant time.

這些都需要時間才能結出碩果，但會有相當長的時間。

With the Powerwall, the -- there are a bunch of other costs in the Powerwall that are more than just the battery cost.

使用 Powerwall，Powerwall 中還有許多其他成本，而不僅僅是電池成本。

So you've got the -- you have the cell cost, and you have -- and you get the cell into a module, you've got all the cooling systems, the control systems, the safety stuff that prevents a runaway, the enclosure, the modem to communicate to the Internet and then (inaudible) would be the power electronics to take the power from the cells and eventually convert that to the AC or DC power of the house keys.

所以你有 - 你有電池成本，而且你有 - 你把電池變成一個模塊，你有所有的冷卻系統，控制系統，防止失控的安全材料，外殼，調製解調器與互聯網通信，然後（聽不清）將是電力電子設備，從電池中獲取電力並最終將其轉換為房屋鑰匙的交流或直流電源。

J.B., is there something you'd like to add to that?

J.B.，您有什麼要補充的嗎？

No.

不。

That's a great description.

這是一個很好的描述。

It's a fully integrated product.

這是一個完全集成的產品。

It's a system, not just a bunch of cells.

這是一個系統，而不僅僅是一堆細胞。

So when you -- if you're maybe trying to calculate dollar per kilowatt or the cost of the Powerwall, I think you'd find it's extremely competitive against other home energy storage systems.

所以當你——如果你可能試圖計算每千瓦的美元或 Powerwall 的成本，我認為你會發現它與其他家庭儲能係統相比極具競爭力。

We believe the best.

我們相信最好的。

But there is a lot of other hardware in there that's all included, all wrapped together in the Powerwall price, so you don't have to piecemeal the system in your house.

但是裡面還有很多其他硬件都包含在內，所有這些都包含在 Powerwall 價格中，因此您不必在家裡拼湊系統。

Right.

正確的。

But we're quite confident that the Powerwall is the highest quality product and actually at the lowest cost of anything in the market.

但我們非常有信心，Powerwall 是市場上質量最高的產品，實際上成本最低。

So that is a good product.

所以這是一個很好的產品。

And I feel good, feel pretty happy with it.

我感覺很好，對此感到很高興。

And some of the improvement trajectory that you saw from Powerwall 1 to Powerwall 2, part of that is made possible by the migration to 2170 cells made at Gigafactory, not all of it but a large part of it.

您看到的從 Powerwall 1 到 Powerwall 2 的一些改進軌跡，其中一部分是通過遷移到 Gigafactory 製造的 2170 電池而成為可能的，不是全部，而是很大一部分。

So that is something we're pleased with and feel it's going well.

所以這是我們很高興的事情，並且感覺進展順利。

Okay.

好的。

I was wondering also your customer deposits, and I recognize there's a lot in that, declined for the second straight quarter.

我也想知道您的客戶存款，我承認其中有很多，連續第二個季度下降。

And at least by my math, it appears as though Tesla's new car inventory has increased substantially over the last couple of quarters, maybe 3,500 units or about 50%, even though sort of production and deliveries have been relatively constant.

至少根據我的數學計算，特斯拉的新車庫存似乎在過去幾個季度大幅增加，可能是 3,500 輛或約 50%，儘管生產和交付量相對穩定。

I'm wondering if you are seeing incremental demand pressure on Model X. And particularly Model S, Elon, you underscored that there was confusion in the marketplace.

我想知道您是否看到 Model X 的需求壓力增加。特別是 Model S，Elon，您強調市場存在混亂。

And are these the metrics that are suggesting to you that there's some confusion in the marketplace?

這些指標是否向您表明市場存在一些混亂？

Are you seeing cancellations?

你看到取消了嗎？

Because at least optically, it looks like the book-to-bill is less than 1 on S and X.

因為至少從視覺上看，S 和 X 上的 book-to-bill 看起來小於 1。

Yes.

是的。

Deepak here, a couple of questions that you had.

迪帕克在這裡，你有幾個問題。

Firstly, just to clarify, (inaudible) weekly inventory (inaudible) very slightly from end of Q4 to end of Q1.

首先，澄清一下，從第四季度末到第一季度末，（聽不清）每週庫存（聽不清）非常輕微。

And the -- and we are using some of that in different ways, and Jon can explain that further.

而且——我們正在以不同的方式使用其中的一些，Jon 可以進一步解釋。

And also to your other question on customer deposits, what I'm seeing is that we had an artificial backlog in our customer deposits of Model Xs.

對於您關於客戶存款的另一個問題，我看到的是我們在 Model Xs 的客戶存款中人為積壓。

And as our production of Model Xs has stabilized and as our mix of Model S has increased relative to X, we have cleared that.

隨著我們的 Model Xs 產量穩定，以及我們的 Model S 相對於 X 的組合增加，我們已經清除了這一點。

So it's nothing unusual from what I'm seeing there.

所以從我在那裡看到的情況來看，這並沒有什麼不尋常的。

And Jon, do you want to add on the...

還有喬恩，你想添加...

That's right.

這是正確的。

The increase in inventories is about split in 2. One is we increased Model X test drive vehicles by about 1,000 over the past quarter.

庫存的增加大約一分為二。一個是我們在過去一個季度增加了約 1,000 輛 Model X 試駕車輛。

We had prioritized deliveries as we ramped up Model X production and prioritized getting cars to customers first and to our store second.

隨著我們增加 Model X 的生產，我們優先考慮交付，並優先將汽車首先交付給客戶，然後再交付給我們的商店。

Our stores have finally gotten their test drive fleets, and that's what you see in terms of the half of the unit volume increase.

我們的商店終於有了他們的試駕車隊，這就是你所看到的單位數量增長的一半。

The second half is in our service loaners.

下半年是在我們的服務貸款人。

So as our installed fleet has gone up, we need -- we wanted to make sure that our owners were getting a service loaner, and we'll continually increase that, and you'll see that over time.

因此，隨著我們安裝的機隊增加，我們需要 - 我們希望確保我們的所有者獲得服務借用者，我們將不斷增加這一點，隨著時間的推移你會看到這一點。

That's not a one-time event.

這不是一次性事件。

You'll see as we continue to deliver this level of cars per quarter that we will increase the service loaner fleet proportionally so that we've got the ability to offer a Tesla to our customers.

您會看到，隨著我們每季度繼續提供這種水平的汽車，我們將按比例增加服務貸款車隊，以便我們有能力為我們的客戶提供特斯拉。

Yes.

是的。

And in fact, this'll take us a few months to fully deploy, but our policy for service loaners is that the service loaner fleet will be the very best version of a Tesla that is available.

事實上，這將需要我們幾個月的時間才能完全部署，但我們對服務借用者的政策是服務借用者車隊將是可用的特斯拉的最佳版本。

So if you have a Model X that comes in for service, the service loaner you will get will be the absolute fully loaded state-of-the-art P100D Ludicrous, best Model X that we have.

因此，如果您有一輛需要維修的 Model X，那麼您將獲得的維修服務將是絕對滿載的最先進的 P100D Ludicrous，我們擁有的最好的 Model X。

The same for the Model S. So it will be the kind of thing where you hope that service takes a long time because you have the absolute top-of-the-line Tesla as a service loaner.

Model S 也是如此。因此，您希望服務需要很長時間，因為您擁有絕對頂級的特斯拉作為服務借用者。

So Elon, just to clarify, the confusion that you believe exists between potentially Model 3 and Model S, that's not being inferred from order patterns?

所以 Elon，只是為了澄清一下，您認為潛在的 Model 3 和 Model S 之間存在混淆，這不是從訂單模式中推斷出來的嗎？

That's being inferred more qualitatively from what you're learning in showrooms?

這是從您在陳列室中學到的東西中更定性地推斷出來的嗎？

Or how do you make that assessment of the problem?

或者你如何對問題做出評估？

There are no -- we have seen some impact of Model S orders as a function of people being confused that Model 3 is the upgrade to Model S. Now we took action to correct that about a month ago, but that message has not filtered down to all of our customers.

沒有——我們已經看到 Model S 訂單的一些影響，因為人們對 Model 3 是對 Model S 的升級感到困惑。現在我們在大約一個月前採取行動糾正了這個問題，但該消息並沒有被過濾掉給我們所有的客戶。

So there's still a lot of people who are under the impression that Model 3 is the upgrade from Model S. But in fact, the one upgrade is just by the latest Model S. That's the actual upgrade.

所以還是有很多人覺得 Model 3 是 Model S 的升級版。但實際上，一次升級只是最新款 Model S 的升級版，這才是真正的升級。

Not -- like saying -- thinking that the upgrade path from an Audi A6 is an Audi A4.

不是 - 就像說 - 認為奧迪 A6 的升級路徑是奧迪 A4。

It's not.

它不是。

So yes, so it's just a question of correcting that misconception, which I'm confident we'll be able to do in the next several weeks.

所以是的，所以這只是糾正這種誤解的問題，我相信我們將能夠在接下來的幾週內做到這一點。

Our next question comes from Colin Langan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Colin Langan。

You've talked about in the past reinventing the machine that makes the machine.

您過去曾談到重新發明製造機器的機器。

And now that we're getting a little bit closer to the Model 3 launch, any additional color on what steps in automation you're doing for the Model 3?

現在我們離 Model 3 的發布越來越近了，關於你為 Model 3 執行的自動化步驟有什麼額外的顏色嗎？

And any rough order of magnitude of how much more automated the Model 3 would be versus the traditional production line?

與傳統生產線相比，Model 3 的自動化程度會提高多少？

Yes.

是的。

So with Model 3, I think would be roughly comparable with the best high-volume vehicle production lines in the world, better in some respects, a little worse than others, but roughly comparable.

所以對於 Model 3，我認為可以與世界上最好的大批量汽車生產線大致相當，在某些方面更好，比其他方面差一點，但大致相當。

And then with some further iteration, I think it will probably be a little bit better than the next-best automotive production line.

然後通過進一步的迭代，我認為它可能會比下一個最好的汽車生產線好一點。

Then where things will really be a step change I think beyond any other automated actually will be the Model Y factory.

然後，我認為除了任何其他自動化設備之外，真正會發生重大變化的地方將是 Model Y 工廠。

And this is both a function of designing the product to be easy to manufacture and easy to automate as well as designing the factory itself.

這既是設計易於製造和易於自動化的產品的功能，也是設計工廠本身的功能。

So Model Y is where I think it really becomes a step change, but Model 3 is going to be at or probably slightly better than I think the next best automotive (inaudible), that's pretty (inaudible).

所以我認為 Model Y 是一個真正的轉變，但 Model 3 將處於或可能略好於我認為的下一個最好的汽車（聽不清），這很漂亮（聽不清）。

And then Model Y will be -- there'll be nothing close to it, I think.

然後 Model Y 將是 - 我認為它不會接近它。

Maybe just to add as a relative benchmark, against the S and the X, the Model 3 is vastly more automated.

也許只是為了作為一個相對基準，與 S 和 X 相比，Model 3 的自動化程度要高得多。

And perhaps it's not the best benchmark for you looking forward, it's perhaps 3 to 4x more automated than an S or an X, and much more simpler to build.

也許它不是您期待的最佳基準，它的自動化程度可能比 S 或 X 高 3 到 4 倍，而且構建起來更簡單。

Is that 1/5 of the hours per car?

那是每輛車的 1/5 小時嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So.

所以。

It's 5x the volume, but the same hours per car.

這是 5 倍的體積，但每輛車的小時數相同。

Got it.

知道了。

And as a follow-up, any color on -- you've announce the doubling of the Supercharger network and increasing your dealers.

作為後續行動，任何顏色 - 您已宣布將 Supercharger 網絡增加一倍並增加您的經銷商。

I mean, how should we think about that over the next few years?

我的意思是，在接下來的幾年裡，我們應該如何看待這個問題？

Is that doubling going to be enough?

翻倍就夠了嗎？

Or how do you see the network needing to expand going forward?

或者您如何看待未來需要擴展的網絡？

Well, it's exciting that Supercharger network substantially hit that number just recently, and you can see the growth plan on our website.

好吧，令人興奮的是，Supercharger 網絡最近才大幅達到這個數字，您可以在我們的網站上看到增長計劃。

That's going to continue to increase dramatically.

這將繼續急劇增加。

Jon, do you want to speak to service?

喬恩，你想和服務說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Service locations are what you see increasing in the shareholder letter.

服務地點是您在股東信中看到的增加內容。

But you should probably think about service capacity in 2 ways now.

但是您現在可能應該從兩個方面考慮服務容量。

One of the things we've discovered as we've deployed more advanced service techniques into our centers is that a super majority of the cars that we repair don't require a lift.

當我們在我們的中心部署更先進的服務技術時，我們發現的一件事是，我們維修的絕大多數汽車都不需要電梯。

That frees us from brick-and-mortar service.

這使我們擺脫了實體服務。

And we've added substantially now to our mobile service capability starting first experimenting in the Bay Area and in some of our major markets, and we'll be rolling that out throughout the year.

我們現在已經大幅增加了我們的移動服務能力，首先在灣區和我們的一些主要市場進行試驗，我們將在全年推出。

And so we're creating service capacity in 2 ways -- mobile service and fixed service operations.

因此，我們以兩種方式創造服務能力——移動服務和固定服務運營。

But fixed service operations are becoming much, much more efficient.

但固定服務運營正變得越來越高效。

Much higher throughput.

更高的吞吐量。

Absolutely, much higher throughput per worker, more throughput per square foot across really every metric.

絕對地，每個工人的吞吐量要高得多，實際上每一個指標每平方英尺的吞吐量都更高。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Elon, first question's is on CFIUS and Tencent.

Elon，第一個問題是關於 CFIUS 和騰訊的。

So after acquiring this 5% passive stake in the company, I'm thinking given the highly sensitive nature of your proprietary tech and computer vision, AI, robotics, et cetera, and all the related infrastructure, I would imagine that the Commission for Foreign Investment in the United States and the Pentagon might be concerned at the idea of a Chinese or a potentially Chinese state-backed company going any further than a small passive stake.

因此，在獲得該公司 5% 的被動股權後，我認為鑑於您的專有技術和計算機視覺、人工智能、機器人技術等以及所有相關基礎設施的高度敏感，我認為外國委員會對美國和五角大樓的投資可能會擔心中國或潛在的中國政府支持的公司比小額被動股權走得更遠的想法。

Am I watching too many Cold War movies here?

我在這裡看太多冷戰電影了嗎？

Or is there potential for some sensitivity on the grounds of national security?

還是有可能以國家安全為由引起一些敏感？

Well, I think 5% is not that big of a deal.

嗯，我認為 5% 沒什麼大不了的。

I mean they're not present at board meetings.

我的意思是他們沒有出席董事會會議。

They don't have any insight into Tesla that's not public.

他們對未公開的特斯拉沒有任何見解。

Yes.

是的。

As Elon said, this is a passive investment.

正如埃隆所說，這是一種被動投資。

And it doesn't require CFIUS clearance from that point of view.

從這個角度來看，它不需要 CFIUS 許可。

Again, they don't have any access to confidential information or board materials, so it's just a belief and the support of what they think Tesla can achieve.

同樣，他們無權訪問機密信息或董事會材料，因此這只是他們認為特斯拉可以實現的信念和支持。

Okay.

好的。

And just as a follow-up, Apple has enough net cash, I think, to buy Tesla like more than 3x over.

作為後續行動，我認為蘋果有足夠的淨現金購買特斯拉超過 3 倍。

Is there anything that Apple does or has, besides having more money than they know what to do with, that could be helpful in Tesla's mission to accelerate the transition to shared autonomy in sustainable transport?

除了擁有比他們知道的更多的錢之外，蘋果所做的或擁有的任何東西，是否有助於特斯拉加速向可持續交通共享自治過渡的使命？

Could they be the type of firm you could partner with?

他們會是您可以合作的公司類型嗎？

And could you -- is this something you could talk to Tim about?

你能——這是你可以和蒂姆談談的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I don't think they want to have that conversation.

我認為他們不想進行那種對話。

I don't believe -- there's not been any indication that they do.

我不相信——沒有任何跡象表明他們相信。

But obviously, Apple's company makes some great product.

但很明顯，蘋果公司生產了一些很棒的產品。

And yes, I mean, I use their phone and their laptop, it's cool.

是的，我的意思是，我使用他們的手機和筆記本電腦，這很酷。

I mean, do you think of them more a competitor than potential partner?

我的意思是，你認為他們更像是競爭對手而不是潛在的合作夥伴嗎？

Is that unfair?

這不公平嗎？

I mean, I don't know what they're going to do on the car front.

我的意思是，我不知道他們會在車前做什麼。

Yes, it's not clear.

是的，不清楚。

Our next question comes from Tyler Frank with Robert Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tyler Frank 和 Robert Baird。

Can you walk me through what your capital needs are for the Model 3 just to get to production and then to ramp production throughout this year and next year?

你能告訴我你對 Model 3 的資本需求是什麼，只是為了投產，然後在今年和明年增加產量嗎？

And then how confident are you that you might be able to hit that 100,000-unit production target for the Model 3 in this year?

那麼，您對今年能夠實現 Model 3 的 10 萬輛生產目標有多大信心？

And then I have a follow-up after that.

然後我有一個後續行動。

I don't think we have indicated the -- we have just said in the letter, we'll achieve 5,000 per week at some point this year and 10,000 at some point next year.

我不認為我們已經表明——我們剛剛在信中說過，我們將在今年某個時候達到每週 5,000 個，明年某個時候達到 10,000 個。

So we haven't clarified on that.

所以我們還沒有澄清這一點。

So...

所以...

Yes.

是的。

The trick with the -- when you've got a whole new product and a whole new factory is I don't predict exactly what the -- what that initial S-curve look -- initial push in the S-curve looks like, it's extremely difficult.

訣竅是——當你有一個全新的產品和一個全新的工廠時，我無法準確預測——最初的 S 曲線是什麼樣的——S 曲線的初始推動是什麼樣的，這非常困難。

In every way, the production starts off slowly and then you gradually eliminate the constraints and eventually it starts taking off exponentially.

在各個方面，生產開始緩慢，然後您逐漸消除限制，最終開始呈指數增長。

But because of that sort of initial slow ramp that then goes exponentially -- it's more changed in where that lands in the quarter, it can have quite a big impact on total volume.

但是由於那種最初的緩慢上升，然後呈指數級增長——它在本季度的著陸位置發生了更大的變化，它會對總交易量產生相當大的影響。

It's a lot easier to predict where the upper flat portion of the S-curve is likely to be, but predicting the rapidly changing portion of the S-curve is just, I think, not within the ability of anyone to predict with accuracy.

預測 S 曲線的上平坦部分可能在哪裡要容易得多，但我認為，預測 S 曲線的快速變化部分只是在任何人都無法準確預測的能力範圍內。

Got it.

知道了。

And then can you just run us through what the capital needs are sort of to hit that 10,000-unit per week goal as well as where the battery factory stands in terms of its current capacity versus its expected total capacity and what time line is to get to that total capacity mark?

然後，您能否讓我們了解一下實現每週 10,000 個單位的目標所需的資金，以及電池工廠在當前產能與預期總產能方面的位置以及獲得的時間表到總容量標記？

Well, we feel pretty good overall about the capital needs and our ability to fund that to achieve that 10,000 per week capacity and...

好吧，我們對資本需求和我們為實現每週 10,000 個產能和...

With internal...

與內...

Yes, with internal -- right, exactly, with our own resources and the cash that we generate from our business as we ramp up Model 3 volumes.

是的，內部——沒錯，確切地說，是我們自己的資源和我們在增加 Model 3 產量時從業務中產生的現金。

And overall, and J.B. can speak up more to that in terms of the cell capacity, that's all lined up to come in -- come online just ahead of our needs on the vehicle side as well as on the energy storage side.

總體而言，J.B. 可以在電池容量方面更多地表達這一點，這一切都在排隊等候——在我們在車輛方面和儲能方面的需求之前上線。

And we initially forecast about 35 gigawatt hours of cell capacity and 50 gigawatt hours of pack capacity, and we anticipate to surpass that cell capacity in 2018.

我們最初預測約 35 吉瓦時的電池容量和 50 吉瓦時的電池組容量，我們預計將在 2018 年超過該電池容量。

So that's going well.

所以進展順利。

And with the increasing improvements in the production density and speed at the Gigafactory, we actually ultimately believe, and I think we've said this before, that we can fit substantially more capacity than the 35 gigawatt hours at Gigafactory 1. So...

隨著 Gigafactory 生產密度和速度的不斷提高，我們實際上最終相信，而且我認為我們之前已經說過，我們可以容納比 Gigafactory 1 的 35 吉瓦時更多的容量。所以......

Yes.

是的。

And we've said publicly that we think cell capacity at Gigafactory 1 is likely to exceed 100 gigawatt hours over time.

我們公開表示，我們認為 Gigafactory 1 的電池容量可能會隨著時間的推移超過 100 吉瓦時。

So the end stage of 35 is really sort of a passing point at this stage and will continue on from there.

所以35的最後階段在這個階段真的是一個過渡點，並將從那裡繼續下去。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And then Elon, you had previously pulled out a target of 1 million cars per year by 2020.

然後是埃隆，你之前提出了到 2020 年每年生產 100 萬輛汽車的目標。

Do you still think that's achievable?

你還認為這可以實現嗎？

And what needs to take place in order to get there?

為了到達那裡需要做什麼？

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

I think we need to come up with the Model Y sometime in 2020 or, aspirationally, late 2019.

我認為我們需要在 2020 年的某個時候，或者理想情況下，在 2019 年末推出 Model Y。

And then I think that 1 million units is quite likely -- combined, yes.

然後我認為很有可能達到 100 萬台——加起來，是的。

Maybe more.

也許更多。

Our next question comes from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛坦貝里諾。

I wanted to first just ask about the order rate for the S and the X in the quarter and also get some color around your deliveries from a regional perspective.

我想首先詢問本季度 S 和 X 的訂單率，並從區域的角度了解您的交付情況。

I believe there was an expiration of an electric vehicle tax credit in Hong Kong.

我相信香港的電動汽車稅收抵免已經到期。

I'm just wondering if that created any pull forward or incremental demand in the quarter and if there's any air pocket to orders and deliveries for the second quarter, seeing that you maintained your 47,000 to 50,000 1H delivery guidance.

我只是想知道這是否在本季度創造了任何拉動或增量需求，以及第二季度的訂單和交付是否有任何氣穴，因為您維持了 47,000 至 50,000 的 1H 交付指導。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, there was some pull forward demand in Hong Kong, that's 1 city on earth.

我的意思是，香港有一些前瞻需求，那是地球上的第一個城市。

So the (inaudible) impact our ability to achieve our delivery target for Q2.

因此（聽不清）影響我們實現第二季度交付目標的能力。

And the order rate growth for the quarter?

本季度的訂單率增長情況如何？

Well, the -- I think we feel pretty good about achieving the sort of the 100k, roughly 100k, total for the year for S and X, combined.

好吧，我認為我們對實現 S 和 X 一年總計達到 100k，大約 100k 的那種感覺非常好。

That's where we kind of want to be.

這就是我們想要成為的地方。

The manufacturing system at the supply chain is all sort of set up for that level.

供應鏈上的製造系統都是為該級別設置的。

We continue to be surprised by how sort of, frankly, naive people are -- a lot of you are about production and supply chain.

我們繼續對坦率地說，天真的人們感到驚訝——你們中的很多人都是關於生產和供應鏈的。

It's as though -- it sounds like an easy way to increase production, it's truly not.

就好像——這聽起來像是一種增加產量的簡單方法，但實際上並非如此。

You can't -- at any given production system, you design it for optimal output and then you aim to improve efficiency, reliability, quality and so forth at that output.

你不能——在任何給定的生產系統中，你設計它以獲得最佳輸出，然後你的目標是提高該輸出的效率、可靠性、質量等。

So the S and X system, as I said last year, was designed for 100,000 units.

因此，正如我去年所說，S 和 X 系統是為 100,000 台設計的。

And initially to get to that rate, we have to use a lot of overtime, a lot of expediting, and that affected our gross margin on the car.

最初為了達到這個速度，我們必須使用大量的加班時間，大量的加急，這影響了我們在汽車上的毛利率。

And now we're sort of at steady-state with the kind of the top part of that S-curve that we're targeting.

現在我們處於穩定狀態，處於我們所針對的 S 曲線的頂部。

And so now our focus for S and X is improving production efficiency, continuing to improve quality and...

所以現在我們對 S 和 X 的關注是提高生產效率，繼續提高質量和……

Material cost.

材料費用。

Yes, material cost and so forth, to sort of -- and to get the right amount of gross margin for S and X to go to the 30% level that we've been aspiring to for a while.

是的，材料成本等等，為了讓 S 和 X 的毛利率達到我們一直渴望的 30% 水平。

Understood, that's on the production side.

明白了，那是在生產方面。

My question was just on the what the order rates and demand was looking like from what you're seeing on your customer base.

我的問題只是關於您在客戶群中看到的訂單率和需求情況。

Historically, you've given or provided a very helpful color on what the year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter order growth rate has been on the S and the X, and I think it's a meaningful metric for what demand looks like for those vehicles and for your products.

從歷史上看，您已經為 S 和 X 的同比或環比訂單增長率給出或提供了非常有用的顏色，我認為這是一個有意義的指標，可以衡量需求的樣子對於這些車輛和您的產品。

But that's okay, understood.

不過沒關係，懂的。

I don't think it's meaningful.

我不認為這是有意義的。

We're going to produce 100,000 units approximately, so all that matters is there's demand.

我們將生產大約 100,000 台，所以重要的是有需求。

Is there going to be demand for 100,000 units?

會有100,000個單位的需求嗎？

I believe there will be.

我相信會有的。

And there is.

有。

And there certainly sufficient demand for the guidance we've given for the first half.

對我們上半年給出的指導肯定有足夠的需求。

Yes.

是的。

Understood.

明白了。

And just on the SolarCity side, it looked like a pretty good gross margin quarter.

就 SolarCity 而言，它看起來是一個相當不錯的毛利率季度。

I wanted to understand how much of that was from the shift further into the cash loan versus the PPA lease?

我想了解其中有多少來自進一步轉向現金貸款與 PPA 租賃？

And how much was that?

那是多少？

Or was it more associated with the ramping of the Gigafactory and production of the cells?

還是與 Gigafactory 的擴建和細胞的生產更相關？

It was primarily seasonality.

這主要是季節性的。

We had (inaudible) production happen in the Northern Hemisphere in some of the PPA leases and how we recognize revenue.

在某些 PPA 租賃以及我們如何確認收入方面，我們在北半球進行了（聽不清）生產。

And also it was we had some $14 million sale of energy credits that helped us.

也正是我們出售了大約 1400 萬美元的能源信用額度，這對我們有所幫助。

And the credit sale is a sale that happen every quarter, but we have the full quarter of it, which we didn't have in our half quarter of SolarCity sales -- financials in our Tesla income statement.

信貸銷售是每個季度都會發生的銷售，但我們有整個季度，我們在 SolarCity 的半季度銷售中沒有 - 我們的特斯拉損益表中的財務數據。

And plus, we've seen an increase in cash and earnings that improved the margin as well.

此外，我們看到現金和收益的增加也提高了利潤率。

Yes, that does help the margin as well, yes.

是的，這也有助於提高利潤率，是的。

I'm sorry to ask one more but that was a bit inaudible.

我很抱歉再問一個，但這有點聽不見。

Could you repeat that, Lyndon?

你能再說一遍嗎，林登？

Yes, we've actually seen an increase in the Tesla line business.

是的，我們實際上已經看到特斯拉線業務的增長。

We're going to get the majority of the cash and loan by the end of the year.

我們將在年底前獲得大部分現金和貸款。

Correct.

正確的。

So just to be clear, for (inaudible) activity, we'd like it to get to the majority of the cash and loan by the end of the year.

因此，為了明確起見，對於（聽不清的）活動，我們希望它在年底前獲得大部分現金和貸款。

And we expect the Solar margins to stay very healthy for the rest of the year and grow over time.

我們預計太陽能利潤率將在今年餘下時間保持非常健康，並隨著時間的推移而增長。

Our next question comes from Martin Viecha with Redburn.

我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Martin Viecha。

This is Martin from Redburn.

這是來自雷德伯恩的馬丁。

I wanted to ask about the pep talk that you had a few days ago, where you talked about level 5 maybe in the next 2 years.

我想問一下你幾天前的鼓舞人心的談話，你談到了可能在未來 2 年內達到 5 級。

And I was wondering that it's probably going to change radically the design of the car inside and whether you foresee this in the next 2 years that the interior design would change quite dramatically.

我想知道它可能會從根本上改變汽車內部的設計，以及您是否預見到在未來兩年內，內部設計會發生相當大的變化。

I don't think the -- we're going to see a dramatic change in interior design.

我不認為 - 我們會看到室內設計發生巨大變化。

There may be an option where you have club seating instead of everyone facing forward, but I wouldn't call that radical, just turning seats around.

可能有一個選項，你有俱樂部座位，而不是每個人都面朝前，但我不會稱之為激進，只是把座位轉過來。

And I'm not sure how much people obviously would want to do that.

而且我不確定有多少人顯然想要這樣做。

I mean, the sensor hardware and compute power required for at least to have a 4 to a level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla producer since October of last year approximately.

我的意思是，自去年 10 月左右以來，每個特斯拉生產商都需要至少擁有 4 到 5 級自主權所需的傳感器硬件和計算能力。

So it's a matter of upgrading the software and looking to level 5. And if it does turn out that we need to upgrade the compute power, it's designed to be easy to upgrade, basically access through the glove box and plug in a more powerful computer.

所以這是升級軟件並尋求到 5 級的問題。如果確實需要升級計算能力，它被設計為易於升級，基本上通過手套箱訪問並插入更強大的計算機.

So we don't think it will be but if it is, that's pretty easy to do.

所以我們認為它不會，但如果是的話，那很容易做到。

So the important thing to appreciate is that the sensor hardware and wiring harnesses necessary for autonomy which is essentially having the 8 cameras, the radar and ultrasonics, that's in place.

因此，需要了解的重要一點是，自主所需的傳感器硬件和線束基本上是配備了 8 個攝像頭、雷達和超聲波。

So that with each passing release, the car's autonomy level will improve.

因此，隨著每次發布，汽車的自主性水平都會提高。

We had a bit of a dip, obviously, because of the unexpectedly rapid transition away from Mobileye, where we'd expected to have the Mobileye chip on the board as we transitioned but Mobileye refused to allow that.

顯然，由於從 Mobileye 出人意料地快速過渡，我們有一點下滑，我們原本希望在過渡時將 Mobileye 芯片放在板上，但 Mobileye 拒絕允許。

So then we had to basically recreate all the Mobileye functionality in about 6 months which we did.

因此，我們必須在大約 6 個月內重新創建所有 Mobileye 功能。

Okay.

好的。

And then the other follow-up question that I had was on the Model Y. You mentioned that the Model 3 production line will be probably as fast or a bit faster than the fastest production line in the world, and Model Y will be the genuine step change.

然後我的另一個後續問題是關於 Model Y。你提到 Model 3 的生產線可能會和世界上最快的生產線一樣快或快一點，而 Model Y 將是真正的階躍變化。

Does that mean that the Model Y will be made on a different platform than the Model 3?

這是否意味著 Model Y 將在與 Model 3 不同的平台上製造？

It will be, yes, different platform.

是的，它將是不同的平台。

Just one example, but the wiring harness on Model S is about 3 kilometers in length.

只是一個例子，但 Model S 上的線束長度約為 3 公里。

The wiring harness on Model 3 is 1.5 kilometers in length.

Model 3 上的線束長度為 1.5 公里。

The wiring harness on Model Y will be 100 meters.

Model Y 的線束長度為 100 米。

And that's a redundant wiring harness.

那是一個冗餘的線束。

So really, wiring harness is basically a flex harness with a high bit rate bus, so you can put everything on a higher bit rate bus that doesn't -- a CAN bus where you -- your data rate isn't necessarily constrained.

所以說真的，線束基本上是一個具有高比特率總線的柔性線束，所以你可以把所有東西都放在一個更高比特率的總線上——一個 CAN 總線，你的數據速率不一定受到限制。

And we will also have make changes to the vestigial voltage, so that not everything is 12 volts, which is a pretty absurd number, really, it's wrong for everything.

我們還將對殘留電壓進行更改，因此並非所有電壓都是 12 伏，這是一個非常荒謬的數字，真的，這對所有事情都是錯誤的。

Our next question comes from Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Yes, I have a couple questions.

是的，我有幾個問題。

A housekeeping one and then sort of kind of where are you kind of a question for Elon.

一個管家，然後有點像你在哪裡對 Elon 的一個問題。

On the housekeeping, your order delivery announcements at the end of the quarter, you used to make delivery announcements -- you used to talk about deliveries to end customers.

關於內務，您在季度末發布訂單交付公告，您曾經發布交付公告-您曾經談論向最終客戶交付。

This quarter, it was just deliveries to customers.

本季度，它只是交付給客戶。

Is there any change in distribution channel, potentially using resellers in some markets that that's meant to communicate?

分銷渠道是否有任何變化，可能會在某些市場使用經銷商來進行交流？

No.

不。

It is the same thing.

這是同樣的事情。

It's consistent.

這是一致的。

We are delivering to individual customers.

我們正在為個人客戶提供服務。

Okay.

好的。

Second, a couple of years ago, when the stock was at $200, in an answer to one of my questions, Elon, you outlined a scenario where you could get to $700 billion in market cap, that's about where Apple was at the time.

其次，幾年前，當股價為 200 美元時，在回答我的一個問題時，埃隆，你概述了一個可以達到 7000 億美元市值的情景，這與蘋果當時的情況差不多。

We're 2 years later, you're obviously close to the Model 3 launch.

2 年後，您顯然已經接近 Model 3 的發布。

How are you looking at that?

你怎麼看？

Well, now -- I mean I want to preface this by -- of course, I could be completely delusional but I think I see a clear path to that outcome.

好吧，現在——我的意思是我想以此作為序言——當然，我可能完全是妄想，但我認為我看到了一條通往該結果的清晰道路。

Okay.

好的。

And anything else in terms of other businesses or volume or still pretty much on that track?

在其他業務或數量方面還有其他什麼，或者仍然在那個軌道上？

The set of steps necessary to achieve that outcome seems pretty obvious and heavily involve Tesla getting incredibly good at the machine that builds the machine -- which involves, by the way, a tremendous amount of software.

實現這一結果所需的一系列步驟似乎非常明顯，並且很大程度上涉及特斯拉在製造機器的機器上取得令人難以置信的好成績——順便說一句，這涉及到大量的軟件。

This is -- it's not just a bunch of robots sort of sitting there, it's the programming of the robots and how they interact.

這不僅僅是一堆機器人坐在那裡，而是機器人的編程以及它們如何交互。

And it's far more complex than the software in the car.

而且它比汽車中的軟件複雜得多。

I mean, I think this is just going to be a very difficult thing for other manufacturers to copy.

我的意思是，我認為這對於其他製造商來說將是一件非常難以復制的事情。

I probably wouldn't know what to do if I were in that position.

如果我處於那個位置，我可能不知道該怎麼辦。

Okay.

好的。

And just one quick question: Why pick-up trucks?

只有一個簡單的問題：為什麼選擇皮卡車？

Why semis before pick-up trucks?

為什麼選擇皮卡車之前的半決賽？

Well, they're not going to be that widely separated in time.

好吧，他們不會在時間上如此廣泛地分開。

And part of it is we do want to show that electric transport can do even the most heavy-duty things in the world.

部分原因是我們確實想證明電動交通工具甚至可以做世界上最繁重的事情。

So it's -- I think it's pretty obvious that we can do a pick-up truck.

所以它 - 我認為我們可以做一輛皮卡車是很明顯的。

But it's not obvious to a lot of people that we can do a heavy-duty semi.

但是對於很多人來說，我們可以做一個重型半成品並不明顯。

And so just being able to kind of hit the corners of the box of capability.

所以只是能夠觸及能力框的角落。

It's a helpful thing to do.

這是一件很有幫助的事情。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe I'll add a point.

也許我會補充一點。

But a disproportionate amount of petroleum is actually burned by a small number of trucks just because of the high utilization, the high miles per vehicle, and it really lends itself, I think, well to electrification.

但是，由於利用率高、每輛車的行駛里程高，少數卡車實際上燃燒了不成比例的石油，而且我認為它確實很適合電氣化。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Every semi -- I mean, there's probably 10x as much [hydrocondensate] for a semi as for a pickup truck.

每個半成品——我的意思是，半成品的 [氫化物] 可能是皮卡車的 10 倍。

Our next question comes from Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

A couple remaining questions.

還有幾個問題。

Just one is, since the Model 3 is maybe 2 or 3 months away, could you just give us a sense of what some of the most critical outstanding items are that are going to gate the commercial launch timing?

一個是，由於 Model 3 可能還有 2 或 3 個月的時間，您能否告訴我們哪些最關鍵的優秀產品將影響商業發佈時間？

And now that there are actual physical test vehicles on the road, are there any significant changes happening?

現在道路上有實際的物理測試車輛，是否發生了任何重大變化？

Well, actually it seems to be -- we're not really seeing any significant change that needs to occur with Model 3. So it's coming in as expected, as the design continuation has predicted, it's getting pretty close to the bull's-eye, and I'm not aware of anything that would affect our prior statements about volume target.

嗯，實際上似乎是——我們並沒有真正看到 Model 3 需要發生任何重大變化。所以它正如預期的那樣，正如設計延續所預測的那樣，它非常接近靶心，而且我不知道有什麼會影響我們之前關於交易量目標的陳述。

So there's nothing outstanding vis-à-vis tooling, deliveries or things like that, that you're still viewing as a critical item with some uncertainty?

因此，相對於工具、交付或類似的東西，沒有什麼突出的，您仍然將其視為具有一些不確定性的關鍵項目？

There's plenty of things with uncertainty, but I don't know anything that would prevent us from starting firstly in July, and exceeding 5,000 units per week by the end of the year.

有很多不確定性的事情，但我不知道有什麼會阻止我們從 7 月開始，到年底每週超過 5,000 台。

There may be some cost up there, I just don't know of what that is today.

那裡可能有一些成本，我只是不知道今天是什麼。

Got it.

知道了。

Just switching gears to China.

只是轉向中國。

Obviously, domestic production is presumably very important to your success in that region.

顯然，國內生產可能對您在該地區的成功非常重要。

China recently suggested that they may relax the rules for foreign ownership or that they intend to relax the rules for foreign ownership.

中國最近表示，他們可能會放寬外資所有權的規定，或者打算放寬外資所有權的規定。

And I was wondering if you could just update us on where you stand vis-à-vis the growth plans there?

我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您對那裡的增長計劃的立場？

And are the rules for ownership, is that one of the gating factors?

所有權規則是限制因素之一嗎？

I don't think this is quite the right timing to make any announcements on that front.

我認為現在不是在這方面發布任何公告的正確時機。

But I would expect us to define our plans more clearly by the middle of year with respect to China production.

但我希望我們能在年中更明確地確定我們在中國生產方面的計劃。

I would -- I think it's good timing that -- I mean the China rule changes are good timing.

我會 - 我認為現在是好時機 - 我的意思是中國規則的變化是好時機。

Got it.

知道了。

And just lastly, unless there's a pretty huge Q2 for CapEx, it appears that you're tracking at less than that $2 billion number that you had articulated of capital spending prelaunch of Model 3. Is that a function of savings, contractual timing or is that capacity issue?

最後一點，除非第二季度的資本支出相當龐大，否則您跟踪的數據似乎低於您在模型 3 推出前闡明的資本支出的 20 億美元。這是儲蓄、合同時間的函數還是那個容量問題？

Just some thoughts on how we should be thinking about the capital spending relative to your prior targets.

只是關於我們應該如何考慮相對於您先前目標的資本支出的一些想法。

Yes, it's not too far from it, Rod, and we are -- we have significant CapEx in Q2, and it's done in a big lump sum or a little big peak given how much equipment is being installed and then tested.

是的，它離它不遠，羅德，我們是 - 我們在第二季度有大量的資本支出，並且考慮到正在安裝和測試的設備數量，它是一次性完成的，或者是一個小高峰。

Often, our CapEx payments happen -- and a big chunk of the funding payments happen after the equipment is installed, it's tested and then we have fairly good customer payment terms.

通常，我們的資本支出付款會發生——並且大部分資金付款發生在設備安裝、測試之後，然後我們就有了相當好的客戶付款條件。

In many cases, it's 90 days.

在許多情況下，它是 90 天。

And so it's just a matter of that process and timing and saying that we feel very comfortable in terms of how that is happening, the spend and the installation, and we're all getting this for Model 3.

所以這只是這個過程和時間的問題，並且說我們對如何發生、支出和安裝感到非常自在，我們都為 Model 3 得到了這一點。

I mean, if anyone comes on a tour of the factory, it's really insane how much equipment is arriving and getting installed and being brought online, it's really -- and I'm used to seeing a lot of intense equipment.

我的意思是，如果有人來參觀工廠，那麼有多少設備到貨、安裝並上線，真是太瘋狂了——而且我已經習慣了看到很多密集的設備。

It blows my mind.

這讓我大吃一驚。

Like, wow.

比如，哇。

And I think you'd also get kind of a visual sense for the improvement in manufacturing technology between S and X and 3. So you just go, and look at it, it's like yup, that's obviously better.

而且我認為你也會對 S、X 和 3 之間製造技術的改進有一種視覺上的感覺。所以你去看看，就像是的，這顯然更好。

Our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer。

Can you give us an update on the volume of cathode and anode that's been produced and shipped from the Gigafactory at this point?

您能否向我們提供有關目前從 Gigafactory 生產和運輸的陰極和陽極數量的最新信息？

(inaudible) but it's a lot.

（聽不清）但是很多。

I mean, it's -- yes, vast amount.

我的意思是，它——是的，數量巨大。

Are you alluding to materials -- potential material supply constraints or I'm not sure what you're getting at.

你是在暗示材料——潛在的材料供應限制，還是我不確定你在說什麼。

Yes, I'm just trying to get a sense of the ramp at this point on the cathode and the anode in -- at the Gigafactory.

是的，我只是想了解 Gigafactory 中陰極和陽極此時的斜坡。

I mean it's ramping very (inaudible) we're not really seeing anything (inaudible).

我的意思是它正在急劇上升（聽不清），我們並沒有真正看到任何東西（聽不清）。

Yes and I completely agree.

是的，我完全同意。

And we're basically tracking slightly ahead of where we need to be on vehicles but that's sort of as was planned.

而且我們基本上會稍微提前跟踪我們需要在車輛上的位置，但這有點像計劃的那樣。

We don't want to be too far ahead or else we'd have a pretty massive inventory issue showing up.

我們不想領先太遠，否則我們會出現相當大的庫存問題。

So we run it in batches and we run at high rates and then pause and validate the throughput.

所以我們分批運行它，我們以高速率運行，然後暫停並驗證吞吐量。

But yes, it's where we expect it to be.

但是，是的，這就是我們所期望的。

Okay.

好的。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just shifting...

然後只是換...

Right.

正確的。

And I'd like to express a note of appreciation to (inaudible) parts that are just working really well and they're doing great stuff.

我想對（聽不清的）部分錶示感謝，這些部分工作得非常好，而且他們做得很好。

Okay.

好的。

And then shifting gears to the purchase accounting adjustments related to SolarCity.

然後轉向與 SolarCity 相關的採購會計調整。

Can we just get a sense of the nature of that?

我們可以了解它的本質嗎？

It looked like you were going to go through a series of complex assessments over the course of the year with the SolarCity acquisition.

在收購 SolarCity 的過程中，您似乎將在一年中經歷一系列複雜的評估。

Just wanted to understand what that $100 million charge was.

只是想了解那 1 億美元的費用是什麼。

And how we should think about those decisions getting made going forward.

以及我們應該如何考慮未來做出的這些決定。

I'm not sure what the -- yes, the $100 million is the change quarter-over-quarter that you're referring to.

我不確定是什麼——是的，1 億美元是你所指的季度環比變化。

And in Q4 -- and this is arcane purchase accounting.

在第四季度——這是神秘的採購會計。

Note, there was a gain on our purchase of SolarCity and that was not there in Q1 and there were some revaluation of assets at SolarCity that was linked to that purchase.

請注意，我們在購買 SolarCity 時獲得了收益，而這在第一季度沒有出現，並且與該購買相關的 SolarCity 的資產進行了一些重估。

And net of that was a $100 million walk.

其中淨是 1 億美元的步行。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

What do you think are likely to prove the biggest challenges or bottlenecks in ramping production to 5,000 vehicles per week by some point in 2017?

您認為在 2017 年某個時候將產量提高到每週 5,000 輛汽車的最大挑戰或瓶頸是什麼？

And how confident are you in your ability to overcome those challenges?

您對克服這些挑戰的能力有多大信心？

And then the shareholder letter also mentions a run rate of I think 10,000 or approaching 10,000 per week in 2018, which would maybe seem to indicate some kind of an annual run rate of 500,000 or so Model 3s.

然後股東信還提到了我認為 2018 年每週 10,000 輛或接近 10,000 輛的運行率，這似乎表明某種年運行率 500,000 輛左右的 Model 3。

And then given you're also tracking kind of 100,000 Ss and Xs.

然後假設您還跟踪了 100,000 個 Ss 和 Xs。

Do think that type of production can be handled out of the Fremont facility or does your plan assume production in another facility as well?

是否認為這種類型的生產可以在弗里蒙特工廠外進行，或者您的計劃是否也假設在另一家工廠進行生產？

Yes.

是的。

The -- yes, all of that production is intended to be out of the Gigafactory 1 and Fremont.

- 是的，所有這些產品都打算在 Gigafactory 1 和 Fremont 之外進行。

So yes, we believe that can all be handled here.

所以是的，我們相信這一切都可以在這里處理。

And far as specific constraints on Model 3, I just don't know of anything that really stands out.

至於對 Model 3 的具體限制，我只是不知道有什麼真正突出的。

We've gone to great pains with the Model 3 to design it for manufacturing and to not have all sorts of bells and whistles and special features that, like, for example, like, with X. X became kind of like a technology bandwagon of every cool thing you can imagine all at once.

我們在 Model 3 上煞費苦心地設計它以用於製造，並且沒有各種花里胡哨和特殊功能，例如，像 X 一樣。X 有點像一個技術潮流你能想到的每件很酷的事情都一次完成。

It's like everything all at once.

這就像所有的一切。

That was a terrible strategy.

那是一個糟糕的策略。

You really want to start off simple and add things over time.

你真的想從簡單開始，隨著時間的推移添加東西。

But that was some hubris and real overconfident there.

但那是一些傲慢和真正的過度自信。

So with Model 3 it's the opposite.

因此，對於 Model 3，情況正好相反。

We've designed it to be easy to make.

我們將其設計為易於製作。

We've got I think a much better supply chain in place where we've got the A team from the A suppliers.

我認為我們有一個更好的供應鏈，我們有來自 A 供應商的 A 團隊。

We didn't have that for the Model X or the S. And as far as we know, there are no issues.

對於 Model X 或 S，我們沒有這個功能。據我們所知，沒有任何問題。

So that strategy appears to be paying off but there could be something that we've missed that we just don't know about right now.

因此，該策略似乎得到了回報，但我們可能錯過了一些我們現在還不知道的東西。

Okay.

好的。

And you mentioned production in the Gigafactory.

你提到了超級工廠的生產。

I know you're doing some component assembly there for the Model 3. But given that it is on track to be the world's largest factory or maybe even the world's largest building, is it such a stretch to think that you might be able to produce vehicles in that facility?

我知道你正在那里為 Model 3 進行一些組件組裝。但鑑於它有望成為世界上最大的工廠，甚至可能是世界上最大的建築，認為你可能能夠生產是不是有點牽強？那個設施裡的車輛？

Look, just in terms of making battery cells, modules, packs, motors and power-tronics, just on that basis -- and, of course, the Powerwall, the Powerpack.

看，就在此基礎上製造電池、模塊、電池組、電機和電力電子設備——當然還有 Powerwall、Powerpack。

On that basis alone it is effectively the largest building in the world of any kind.

僅在此基礎上，它實際上就是世界上最大的建築。

I mean, you could fit 3 Pentagons, more than 3 Pentagons in the building.

我的意思是，你可以在建築物中安裝 3 個五角大樓，超過 3 個五角大樓。

4 Pentagons?

4 五角大樓？

I don't know, a lot.

我不知道，很多。

And just in the [gear] factory.

就在[齒輪]工廠。

It's really difficult to appreciate the magnitude of the structure unless you actually visit it.

除非您真正參觀它，否則很難欣賞該結構的規模。

But (inaudible).

但是（聽不清）。

Our next question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

I just wanted to follow up on the CapEx topic.

我只是想跟進資本支出主題。

I mean, you guys did kind of fade down your expectation for CapEx ahead of -- or in conjunction with a Model 3 launch from $2 billion to $2.5 billion to $2 billion and then the spend this quarter was relatively low, at least relative to what the run rate implied.

我的意思是，你們確實在某種程度上降低了對資本支出的期望——或者與 Model 3 的推出相結合，從 20 億美元到 25 億美元到 20 億美元，然後本季度的支出相對較低，至少相對於隱含的運行率。

I'm just curious, is there some level of capital efficiency that you're coming across?

我只是好奇，您是否遇到了某種程度的資本效率？

And I mean, and could you be possibly be significantly below this $2 billion number ahead of the launch or into the launch?

我的意思是，在發布之前或發布之前，你可能會大大低於這個 20 億美元的數字嗎？

We're always trying to be capital efficient.

我們一直在努力提高資本效率。

That is the underlying theme of every step we take.

這是我們採取的每一步的基本主題。

And clearly, some of that is part of it.

顯然，其中一些是其中的一部分。

But I think overall would be -- again, because of this massive scale of payments, whether it's last week of June or first week of July, how many (inaudible) we end up paying, it's hard to be precise.

但我認為總體而言，由於支付規模如此之大，無論是 6 月的最後一周還是 7 月的第一周，我們最終支付了多少（聽不清），這很難準確。

It's almost like an S-curve of capital spend that we're going through here.

這幾乎就像我們在這裡經歷的資本支出的 S 曲線。

So I don't think it's any indication of anything else except timing at the highest level -- beyond the capital efficiency that we are continually working on.

因此，我認為除了最高級別的時間安排之外，沒有任何其他跡象 - 除了我們不斷努力的資本效率。

Okay.

好的。

And then a second question, I mean, residuals seem to keep performing better than you were expecting.

然後是第二個問題，我的意思是，殘差的表現似乎比你預期的要好。

Is there any opportunity to potentially lower monthly lease payments to drive higher unit volume demand going forward?

是否有機會降低每月租金以推動更高的單位數量需求？

Actually, I think one of the traps that the auto industry has gotten into, into the past is having unrealistic residuals and then finding that they're upside-down typically when a recession came along.

實際上，我認為過去汽車行業陷入的陷阱之一是擁有不切實際的殘差，然後發現它們通常在經濟衰退來臨時倒置。

We want to be very cautious about falling into that trap.

我們要非常謹慎地避免落入那個陷阱。

So yes, we're -- yes, we don't want to do that.

所以是的，我們是——是的，我們不想那樣做。

And sort of really, an advantage that our cars have that cars in the past have not had, no other car has, is that the software keeps getting better.

實際上，我們的汽車擁有過去的汽車沒有的優勢，其他汽車也沒有，那就是軟件不斷變得更好。

So functionality, we keep adding more and more functionality to the car even though the hardware stayed the same.

所以功能，即使硬件保持不變，我們也會不斷為汽車添加越來越多的功能。

If the model S -- if you bought a Model S 4 years ago, it's way better than when you brought it and that really makes a difference for residuals.

如果 Model S - 如果您在 4 年前購買了 Model S，那麼它比您帶來它時要好得多，這確實對殘差產生了影響。

Our next question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge.

我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。

On the semi trucks, just very quickly if I could ask, is the attractiveness of that sort of vertical that you could sell sort of in bulk to fewer customers, so more vehicles per customer?

在半卡車上，如果我可以很快問一下，那種垂直的吸引力，你可以批量出售給更少的客戶，所以每個客戶有更多的車輛？

And given your partnerships in the past, would you envision partnering with a manufacturer on that side of the business?

考慮到您過去的合作夥伴關係，您是否會設想在業務方面與製造商合作？

Or would this be more akin to your sort of go it alone strategy on the auto side?

還是這更類似於您在汽車方面的單幹策略？

We'll manufacture that ourselves.

我們將自己製造。

And most of that semi is actually made out of Model 3 parts, by the way.

順便說一句，大部分半成品實際上是由 Model 3 零件製成的。

It's Model 3 -- it's actually using a bunch of Model 3 motors.

它是 Model 3——它實際上使用了一堆 Model 3 電機。

Probably revealing too much about the future of it.

可能透露了太多關於它的未來。

But so we're able to use a very high volume vehicle and then combine several motors to have something that I think is actually going to have a very good gross margin, like it's -- that's just not something that any other -- it's like you can't do that with a traditional truck.

但是所以我們能夠使用一個非常大容量的車輛，然後將幾個電機組合在一起，以獲得我認為實際上會有非常好的毛利率的東西，就像它 - 這不是任何其他東西 - 就像你不能用傳統的卡車做到這一點。

So effectively it allows us to have a very compelling product that has a low unit cost.

如此有效地，它使我們能夠擁有一個非常引人注目且單位成本低的產品。

Yes, the incremental complexity of building that is much less than it might seem.

是的，構建的增量複雜性遠低於看起來。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

In terms of all the (inaudible)

就所有（聽不清）而言

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

And are we right to think about that though, as a contractual sort of opportunity, right?

不過，我們是否正確地將其視為一種合同機會，對嗎？

I mean, you go to sort of a handful of fleet operators and you could sell sort of more vehicles per customer.

我的意思是，你去找幾家車隊運營商，你可以為每位客戶銷售更多的車輛。

Is that the right way to think about it?

這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That is how it would occur, yes.

這就是它會發生的方式，是的。

So it's essentially much more of a straightforward economic decision for the operators.

因此，對於運營商而言，這本質上更像是一個直接的經濟決策。

They just look at it as a cost per ton per mile [economy].

他們只是將其視為每噸每英里的成本[經濟]。

And it's like if it's better, they'll just buy a huge number.

就像如果它更好，他們只會購買大量。

And if it's worse, they won't buy hardly any.

如果情況更糟，他們幾乎不會買任何東西。

And we're confident it'll be better.

我們相信它會變得更好。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then if I just may follow-up on the demand questions that were sort of asked earlier.

然後，如果我可以跟進之前提出的需求問題。

Wondering as you're getting more used vehicles back into the pipeline, is there any data to support that you're using those vehicles to attract a potentially new customer to the brand?

想知道隨著您將更多二手車重新投入生產線，是否有任何數據可以支持您正在使用這些車輛來吸引潛在的新客戶加入該品牌？

Or alternatively, is there data that would suggest that perhaps could be cannibalizing some of the newer vehicles?

或者，是否有數據表明可能會蠶食一些較新的車輛？

But sorry to dwell on demand, but I just wanted to see if there was anything, given now we're a few years on, and you're getting a lot of vehicles back off-lease presumably, if there's any indication there one way or the other.

但是很抱歉，我只是想看看是否有什麼問題，鑑於現在我們已經過去幾年了，如果有任何跡象表明有一種方法，你可能會獲得很多車輛退租或其他。

I think it's still early days, they're still at relatively low numbers.

我認為現在還處於早期階段，它們的數量仍然相對較低。

But the indication is that we're introducing a new customer to Tesla at those lower price points.

但跡象表明，我們正在以較低的價格向特斯拉介紹新客戶。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

The demand actually increases really exponentially as price drops.

隨著價格下跌，需求實際上呈指數增長。

The -- at one point when we looked at it, I think we were looking at the right number, but the demand at the Model 3 price point appeared to be somewhere between 30x and 70x higher than at the Model S price point.

- 當我們查看它時，我認為我們正在尋找正確的數字，但 Model 3 價格點的需求似乎比 Model S 價格點高 30 倍至 70 倍。

Well, I mean, you look at it like, so there's 100,000 premium sedans sold in the U.S. every year.

嗯，我的意思是，你看它，所以每年在美國銷售 100,000 輛高檔轎車。

I think we're about 1/3 of that.

我認為我們大約是其中的 1/3。

But there are 17 million vehicles in total sold, so premium sedans are like nothing.

但是總共售出 1700 萬輛汽車，所以高檔轎車就像一無所有。

Less than 1% of the market.

不到1%的市場份額。

0.5%.

0.5%。

So a 7 Series customer for -- your brand new and a 5 series customer for your sort of used, is maybe the right way to think about it?

因此，一個 7 系列客戶——您的全新客戶和一個 5 系列客戶適合您使用的那種，也許是正確的思考方式？

Is that fair?

這公平嗎？

Or a 3 series customer for the used as well.

或者 3 系列客戶也可以使用。

Yes.

是的。

But it is interesting to consider that the magnitude of -- this is really maybe underappreciated.

但有趣的是，考慮到——這真的可能被低估了。

Like consider 17 million cars and trucks sold in the U.S. per year.

想想每年在美國銷售的 1700 萬輛汽車和卡車。

Of which only 100,000 are premium sedans.

其中只有 100,000 輛是高檔轎車。

And we have a 1/3 market share.

我們擁有 1/3 的市場份額。

If we can replicate that in other segments, the results are obvious.

如果我們可以在其他領域複製這一點，結果是顯而易見的。

Okay.

好的。

Before we go on to the next question, I want to do just a time check here.

在我們繼續下一個問題之前，我想在這裡做一個時間檢查。

We're at the hour mark.

我們在小時標記。

We have 5 more analysts that want to ask questions.

我們還有 5 位分析師想要提問。

Do you want to go on for a little bit longer, Elon?

你想再堅持一會兒嗎，埃隆？

Yes, we can go a little longer.

是的，我們可以走得更久一點。

Our next question comes from Brad Erickson with Pacific Crest Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Brad Erickson。

Elon, I think a couple years ago you'd said you could envision at some point stepping away from Tesla as CEO anyways towards the end of the decade as Model 3 kind of got up and running.

埃隆，我想幾年前你曾說過，你可以設想在某個時候離開特斯拉作為首席執行官，無論如何，在本世紀末，隨著 Model 3 的啟動和運行。

As you were likely to be pursuing a lot of these adjacent opportunities, clearly a lot still there on the horizon.

由於您可能正在追求很多這些相鄰的機會，顯然還有很多機會在地平線上。

But now with some more of these opportunities being a part of Tesla's business, does that change your view of staying actively in place with Tesla longer into the future?

但是現在隨著更多這些機會成為特斯拉業務的一部分，這是否會改變您在未來更長時間與特斯拉保持積極合作的看法？

Well, maybe I wasn't clear.

好吧，也許我不清楚。

I intend to be actively involved with Tesla for the rest of my life.

我打算在我的餘生中積極參與特斯拉。

Hopefully, stopping before I get too old -- or too crazy, I don't know.

希望在我太老或太瘋狂之前停下來，我不知道。

But essentially for as long as I can positively contribute to Tesla, I intend to be -- to have a significant involvement with Tesla.

但基本上，只要我能為特斯拉做出積極貢獻，我就打算——與特斯拉有很大的關係。

But that doesn't mean I should be CEO forever.

但這並不意味著我應該永遠擔任 CEO。

It's like -- I think my main -- so it's like the most valuable thing I can contribute is kind of product design and technology, but that's my forte.

這就像 - 我認為我的主要 - 所以我可以貢獻的最有價值的東西是產品設計和技術，但這是我的強項。

That's what I like doing.

這就是我喜歡做的事情。

And that's what I would imagine doing in the sort of very long term.

這就是我想在很長一段時間內做的事情。

Our next question comes from Jeff Osborne with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Jeff Osborne。

Just 2 questions.

就2個問題。

One, Elon, at the TED Talks, and I think a couple tweets, you had talked about adding 3 Gigafactories, just following up to Tyler Frank's question on CapEx needs.

一個，埃隆，在 TED 演講中，我想有幾條推文，你談到了增加 3 個超級工廠，只是跟進泰勒弗蘭克關於資本支出需求的問題。

Can you just talk about what your ultimate vision of Tesla over the next few years?

你能談談你對特斯拉未來幾年的終極願景嗎？

Model Y factory, truck factories, truck service centers, 3 Gigafactories, China schedule, is all of that going to be funded with internal cash?

Model Y 工廠、卡車工廠、卡車服務中心、3 個 Gigafactories、中國計劃，所有這些都將由內部現金資助嗎？

Or do you see partnerships funding, despite the low margins that the battery industry has?

或者，儘管電池行業的利潤率很低，但您是否看到了合作夥伴資金？

I'm just trying to get a sense of what your ultimate vision will cost.

我只是想了解你的終極願景將花費多少。

Right.

正確的。

Incremental dilution along the way.

沿途逐漸稀釋。

It's hard to say.

很難說。

I mean, I'm sure there will be some funding rounds that happen in the future.

我的意思是，我敢肯定將來會有一些融資輪次。

It's kind of a trade-off between how fast do we want to grow versus -- like, we can grow slower with no dilution, really.

這是我們想要增長的速度與 - 比如，我們可以在沒有稀釋的情況下增長更慢，真的。

For sure, we could grow at a moderate pace with no dilution.

當然，我們可以在不稀釋的情況下以適度的速度增長。

We could grow at a fast pace with some dilution.

我們可以在一些稀釋的情況下快速增長。

Or we can grow at a very fast pace with a high level of dilution.

或者我們可以在高度稀釋的情況下以非常快的速度增長。

10x growth in 3 years sounds pretty fast me but maybe not to you.

3 年 10 倍的增長對我來說聽起來相當快，但對你來說可能不是。

Well, yes, but you have to look and say going from -- when we went from the Roadster to the Model S, we went from making around 500 units a year to making 20,000 units a year.

嗯，是的，但是你必須看看並說從——當我們從 Roadster 轉向 Model S 時，我們從每年生產 500 輛左右變成了每年生產 20,000 輛。

So that's a hell of a good growth, up by a factor of 40.

所以這是一個非常好的增長，增長了 40 倍。

Got it.

知道了。

Maybe just out of the interest of time, the second question I had is just on -- it would be helpful given that there's hundreds of thousands of people that have put a deposit on the Model 3, can you just update us on what the cumulative U.S. vehicles sold that you have relative to 200,000 number to get that $7,500 tax credit?

也許只是出於時間的考慮，我的第二個問題是——考慮到有成千上萬的人在 Model 3 上存了錢，這會很有幫助，你能不能告訴我們累積的你在美國售出的車輛數量相對於 200,000 輛，以獲得 7,500 美元的稅收抵免？

You mentioned elasticity of demand at certain price points, but certainly there's a large contingent of people that put a deposit that unfortunately won't get the benefit.

您提到了某些價格點的需求彈性，但肯定有很大一部分人存入了一筆存款，但不幸的是，他們並沒有從中受益。

So it would be nice just to be able to track that metric, so as the 3 launches in the coming months we can see which folks will get that.

因此，能夠跟踪該指標就很好了，因此隨著未來幾個月的 3 次發布，我們可以看到哪些人會得到它。

And what the impact of demand is for those that don't.

需求的影響對那些沒有的人有什麼影響。

I think most people are going to be able to get it that have put down a deposit.

我認為大多數人將能夠得到它已經放下存款。

And it's just -- it's a physical problem.

這只是 - 這是一個物理問題。

Yes.

是的。

It's sort of the credit rolls off.

這是一種信用滾降。

It just -- it's not like a complete close.

它只是 - 它不像是一個完整的結束。

It rolls off over time.

它隨著時間的推移而滾落。

And we are prioritizing U.S. production, which also helps us with keeping things simple so there's -- we're not making many versions of the car for many different countries.

我們正在優先考慮美國的生產，這也有助於我們保持簡單，所以我們不會為許多不同的國家生產許多版本的汽車。

Yes, and so I mean, I think provided somebody is -- I don't know.

是的，所以我的意思是，我認為只要有人——我不知道。

My guess is probably most people that have put down a deposit will be able to get the full tax credit.

我的猜測可能是大多數已經存下存款的人將能夠獲得全額稅收抵免。

Is there a way you could just give us what the cumulative numbers so far in the U.S. quarter to date -- or sorry, inception to date?

有沒有一種方法可以告訴我們迄今為止美國季度迄今為止的累計數字——或者抱歉，迄今為止的開始？

No.

不。

Here's the problem.

這就是問題所在。

If we do that, then people run off and make all sorts of conclusions based on that, that really have -- that are not predictive of the future.

如果我們這樣做，那麼人們就會跑掉並基於此得出各種結論，這確實具有 - 無法預測未來。

Because there are no -- you can't test drive a Model 3. If you come into our stores and you want to buy a Model 3, we try to get you to buy a Model S or X instead.

因為沒有——您不能試駕 Model 3。如果您來到我們的商店並想購買 Model 3，我們會嘗試讓您購買 Model S 或 X。

We anti-sell the Model 3. But I mean, that's -- reservations continue to climb week after week.

我們反對銷售 Model 3。但我的意思是，預訂量每週都在持續攀升。

No advertising, anti-selling, nothing to test drive, still grows every week.

沒有廣告，反推銷，沒有試駕，依然每週都在增長。

And maybe we'll try clarifying that under the present regime, the income -- the tax credits on the car continue even after we hit the 200,000 limit, and they continue to sell in quarters but at a slightly lower depleting scale.

也許我們會試著澄清一下，在目前的製度下，即使我們達到 200,000 輛的限制，汽車的收入——稅收抵免也會繼續，它們繼續按季度銷售，但消耗規模略低。

So it's going to be beneficial for customers even beyond the 200,000 mark.

因此，即使超過 200,000 個大關，它也會對客戶有利。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

And I should perhaps touch again on this whole notion of -- like, [ODS] has done all these sort of entertaining articles, like Tesla survived because of, like, government subsidies and tax credits, drives me crazy.

我也許應該再次談到整個概念——比如，[ODS] 已經完成了所有這些有趣的文章，比如特斯拉倖存下來是因為政府補貼和稅收抵免，讓我發瘋。

Here's what those fools don't realize.

這是那些傻瓜沒有意識到的。

If Tesla is not alone in the car industry that -- all those things would be material if we were the only car company in existence.

如果特斯拉在汽車行業中並不孤單——如果我們是現存唯一的汽車公司，那麼所有這些都將是重要的。

We are not.

我們不是。

There are many car companies.

有很多汽車公司。

What matters is whether we have a relative advantage in the market.

重要的是我們在市場上是否具有相對優勢。

And in fact, the incentives give us a relative disadvantage.

事實上，激勵措施使我們處於相對劣勢。

This is (inaudible) in spite of the incentives, not because of them.

儘管有激勵措施，但這是（聽不清），而不是因為激勵措施。

And -- but these incentives have limited lifetime and they're limited scale -- like, for example, the federal tax credit.

而且——但這些激勵措施的壽命有限，而且規模有限——例如，聯邦稅收抵免。

And then the -- that caps out at the 200k.

然後 - 上限為 200k。

The carb credits, which the carb rules are woefully weak.

碳水化合物積分，碳水化合物規則非常薄弱。

We can sell -- there are some quarters where we can't even sell carb credits.

我們可以出售——有些地方我們甚至不能出售碳水化合物積分。

And when we can, it's maybe $0.50 on the dollar, or something like that.

當我們可以的時候，它可能是 0.50 美元，或者類似的東西。

Whereas the other car companies get to fully absorb the value of the carb credit.

而其他汽車公司則可以完全吸收碳水化合物信用的價值。

So, for example, gives GM roughly -- I count a $7,000 to $10,000 advantage over Tesla for the Chevy Volt.

因此，例如，大致給通用汽車 - 我認為雪佛蘭 Volt 比特斯拉有 7,000 到 10,000 美元的優勢。

That's why like (inaudible) well, GM appears to be losing $10,000 a car on the Volt.

這就是為什麼像（聽不清）一樣，通用汽車似乎在 Volt 上每輛車損失 10,000 美元。

No, they're not.

不，他們不是。

They're making it up in carb credits.

他們用碳水化合物積分來彌補。

But they get the full retail value of the carb credit whereas we get the wholesale value when we're lucky.

但是他們獲得了碳水化合物信用的全部零售價值，而我們幸運時獲得了批發價值。

But the carb credits only -- are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year.

但只有碳水化合物抵免額——僅在每年生產約 20,000 至 30,000 輛汽車的情況下才有效。

So that's why you'll see, mark my words, it's not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Volt.

所以這就是為什麼你會看到，記住我的話，它不會比雪佛蘭 Volt 高。

That's the 25,000 -- on the order of 25,000 units a year or 1/10th of our initial production rate for the Model 3 or 1/20th of what the Model 3 will be next year.

那是 25,000 輛——每年訂購 25,000 輛，或者是我們最初生產 Model 3 產量的 1/10，或者是明年 Model 3 產量的 1/20。

So Tesla's competitive advantage improves as the incentives go away.

因此，隨著激勵措施的消失，特斯拉的競爭優勢會有所提高。

This is -- it continues to be something that is not well understood.

這是 - 它仍然是不被很好理解的東西。

And for that they don't -- I'll also mention that -- the Nevada tax credits, which for the Gigafactory, it makes it sound like we got a $1.3 billion check from the state of Nevada.

為此，他們沒有 - 我還要提到 - 內華達州稅收抵免，對於 Gigafactory 來說，這聽起來像是我們從內華達州獲得了 13 億美元的支票。

We did not.

我們沒有。

Those tax credits are made up -- the vast majority of it is just sales and use tax abatement on equipment in the Gigafactory.

這些稅收抵免是彌補的——其中絕大多數只是 Gigafactory 設備的銷售和使用稅收減免。

Taxes that otherwise wouldn't been there because there was just a bunch of rocks there before.

否則不會有稅收，因為那里以前只有一堆石頭。

And you don't get a lot of taxes from rocks.

而且你不會從岩石中獲得很多稅收。

So that's why it is essentially a no-lose proposition for the state.

所以這就是為什麼它本質上是一個對國家來說不輸的命題。

And in order for us to actually earn $1.3 billion in tax credits for the Gigafactory we have to generate, over the course of 20 years, about $100 billion in output from the Gigafactory.

為了讓我們真正為超級工廠賺取 13 億美元的稅收抵免，我們必須在 20 年內從超級工廠產生大約 1000 億美元的產出。

So yes, it's worth about like 1%.

所以是的，它的價值約為 1%。

And don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth and we appreciate it and that's nice.

並且不想在嘴裡看禮物馬，我們很感激，這很好。

But this is obviously -- 1% is not the difference between success and failure for the factory.

但這很明顯——1%對於工廠來說並不是成功與失敗的區別。

And -- but a lot of articles write it in the past tense, "Tesla received $1.3 billion." No, we haven't.

而且——但是很多文章都用過去時寫了，“特斯拉收到了 13 億美元。”不，我們沒有。

We did not receive that.

我們沒有收到。

It's only 1% of that, great, we'll take it.

這只是其中的 1%，太好了，我們會接受的。

But I -- looking at the bank now, I just don't see it there.

但是我——現在看著銀行，我只是看不到那裡。

That's because it's just sales and use tax abatement over 20 years.

那是因為它只是銷售和使用稅收減免超過 20 年。

But the key takeaway is that as Tesla's competitive advantage improves with scale, it doesn't get worse.

但關鍵的一點是，隨著特斯拉的競爭優勢隨著規模的擴大而提高，它並沒有變得更糟。

Our next question comes from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

Just a quick one on service.

只是一個快速的服務。

By our math, if you look at the cumulative number of vehicles you've delivered and the amount of stores and service stations, it's a little bit over -- or something around 700 per I guess station.

根據我們的數學計算，如果您查看您已交付的車輛的累計數量以及商店和服務站的數量，那就有點過頭了——或者我猜每個車站大約有 700 輛。

And I realize you're adding some more of these mobile units.

而且我意識到您正在添加更多這些移動單元。

But I just wanted to know bigger picture how you think about coverage in the more steady state or at least at 0.5 million unit rate.

但我只是想知道更大的圖景，你如何看待更穩定狀態或至少 50 萬單位率的覆蓋率。

Like, what is the right level of coverage needed for the larger fleet?

比如，大型機隊所需的正確覆蓋水平是多少？

I think, rather than thinking about store or service center locations, we think about it in terms of mobile units and lifts.

我認為，我們不是考慮商店或服務中心的位置，而是考慮移動裝置和升降機。

And so we are building larger service centers over time that have more lifts.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們正在建造更大的服務中心，擁有更多的電梯。

So our initial service centers, it might have had 2 or 3 lifts.

因此，我們最初的服務中心可能有 2 或 3 部電梯。

And we're building now service centers with 40 to 60, sometimes 80 lifts.

我們現在正在建設有 40 到 60 部，有時甚至是 80 部電梯的服務中心。

And so there's a density within the service centers.

因此，服務中心內部存在密度。

But the mobile capability expands that quite greatly.

但是移動功能大大擴展了這一點。

So I think a lot of people do incorrect analysis to take cars in service divided by locations, because the locations varies so widely.

因此，我認為很多人在按位置劃分服務中的汽車時進行了錯誤的分析，因為位置差異如此之大。

But that's essentially how we're thinking about capacity and planning capacity.

但這本質上就是我們考慮容量和規劃容量的方式。

And as Deepak mentioned earlier, our throughputs and efficiency are getting much better over time, and we'll continue to improve those.

正如 Deepak 之前提到的，隨著時間的推移，我們的吞吐量和效率會越來越好，我們將繼續改進這些。

So it's our goal to stay ahead of the installed base capacity so we're providing great service.

因此，我們的目標是保持領先於已安裝的基礎容量，因此我們提供了優質的服務。

But really the Model 3 has been designed for high reliability.

但實際上，Model 3 是為高可靠性而設計的。

And as Elon has said many times, the best service is no service at all.

正如埃隆多次說過的那樣，最好的服務就是根本沒有服務。

Exactly.

確切地。

We're -- our aspiration would be we make 0 service revenue because the car never needs -- never breaks.

我們——我們的願望是我們的服務收入為零，因為汽車永遠不需要——永遠不會壞。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

And our service centers are sort of like the old Maytag Repairman.

我們的服務中心有點像老美泰格修理工。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Rob Cihra with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆合夥人的 Rob Cihra。

Two quick questions I guess if I could.

如果可以的話，我想兩個快速的問題。

One just on energy, your megawatt hours declined sequentially, which just seemed surprising thinking demand is well above supply still at this stage.

僅就能源而言，您的兆瓦時數連續下降，這似乎令人驚訝，認為現階段需求仍遠高於供應。

So when we could expect any more meaningful ramp there?

那麼什麼時候我們可以期待那裡有更有意義的斜坡呢？

And then separately, on automotive, given that you seem to be in the mood to talk about future unveils, which is great, any chance I could push that by asking about the future urban transport bus?

然後單獨談談汽車，鑑於您似乎有心情談論未來的發布，這很好，我有沒有機會通過詢問未來的城市交通巴士來推動這一點？

Not sure what you want to refer to it as.

不確定您想將其稱為什麼。

But the reason I ask is not -- is because that one seems a lot less about the product and more about just a completely different model for transportation and requiring full autonomy and that sort of thing.

但我問的原因不是——因為人們似乎不太關心產品，而更多的是關於一種完全不同的運輸模式，需要完全自主和諸如此類的事情。

I mean, is that the kind of thing you're thinking 3 years now or 10 years now or anything in between?

我的意思是，你現在想的是 3 年還是 10 年或介於兩者之間的那種事情？

Sure.

當然。

With respect to the battery stuff, it's a little lumpy right now because you're at a big installation in fourth quarter with Southern California Edison.

關於電池的東西，現在有點混亂，因為您在第四季度與南加州愛迪生公司進行了大型安裝。

And then we had a bit of a gap between the Powerwall 1 to Powerwall 2. So we should start to see that correcting in Q2 and Q3 and then particularly towards the end of this year, I would expect quite a dramatic ramp in storage deployment, like really dramatic.

然後我們在 Powerwall 1 和 Powerwall 2 之間有一點差距。所以我們應該開始看到第二季度和第三季度的修正，尤其是到今年年底，我預計存儲部署會出現相當大的增長，真的很戲劇化。

Yes, and it's worth pointing out that we do still have a significant backlog in Powerwall demand and then we're building capacity to address that and ramping it.

是的，值得指出的是，我們仍然有大量積壓的 Powerwall 需求，然後我們正在建設能力來解決這個問題並增加它。

We had a few challenges in parts of the supply chain as we've been ramping that throughout the quarter, the first quarter.

我們在供應鏈的某些部分遇到了一些挑戰，因為我們在整個季度，第一季度一直在增加挑戰。

But those are freeing up.

但那些正在釋放。

And we're seeing the production rates improve week-on-week.

我們看到生產率每週都在提高。

But it's a -- yes, it's not indicative of demand.

但這是一個 - 是的，它並不表示需求。

It's really our challenges of ramping the new products.

推出新產品確實是我們面臨的挑戰。

Yes.

是的。

Like I say I feel really good about quite dramatic quarter-over-quarter increases.

就像我說的，我對相當大的季度環比增長感覺非常好。

I think with -- well, for every quarter I can imagine the future, it's going to be really dramatic increases in stationary storage output.

我認為 - 好吧，對於我能想像的未來的每個季度，固定存儲輸出將真正顯著增加。

It will grow faster than the car volume, and the car volume is growing pretty fast.

它的增長速度將超過汽車量，而且汽車量的增長速度非常快。

Okay, and the bus?

好的，巴士呢？

On the bus, yes.

在公共汽車上，是的。

Having given a bit more thought to it, I don't know if the bus thing -- if that's actually going to be something that makes sense in the shared, fully autonomous environment.

在考慮了更多之後，我不知道公共汽車是否 - 在共享的完全自主的環境中是否真的有意義。

Because it may -- if you have a share -- if it costs like very little, like it costs less than a bus ticket to have -- make use of a shared autonomy fleet to go wherever you want to point to point.

因為它可能——如果你有股份——如果它的成本非常低，比如它的成本低於一張公共汽車票——利用共享的自主車隊去你想指向的任何地方。

Well, why wouldn't you just use that?

那麼，你為什麼不直接使用它呢？

So I don't know.

所以我不知道。

I don't know if the bus thing -- it does helps with density to some degree.

我不知道公共汽車是否在某種程度上有助於提高密度。

But then you -- I mean you could basically have something like a higher density Model X or something like that, that's got 10 or 12 seats in it.

但是你——我的意思是你基本上可以擁有像更高密度的 Model X 或類似的東西，它有 10 或 12 個座位。

But would you want more than that?

但你想要更多嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

And then when you factor tunnels in -- big round tunnels anyway -- yes, then the density -- urban density in traffic, and it can be fully alleviated with tunnels.

然後，當您考慮隧道時——無論如何都是大圓形隧道——是的，然後是密度——城市交通密度，它可以通過隧道完全緩解。

Yes, it's more like the tunnel thing that we talked about that at TED and basically like the commentary afterwards was -- it was like the critics -- the most critical commentary was there's a group that thinks that the whole sort of automated tunnel with electric [scaping] -- like, well basically, like the tunnel thing, this group that says it's obvious, and there's a group that says it's impossible.

是的，這更像是我們在 TED 上談到的隧道問題，基本上就像之後的評論一樣——就像評論家一樣——最關鍵的評論是有一個小組認為整個類型的自動隧道與電動[scaping] - 就像，基本上，就像隧道的事情，這個小組說這是顯而易見的，還有一個小組說這是不可能的。

And I would like those 2 groups to meet.

我希望這兩個小組見面。

It's been like sort of like there's a group that's like the flat earth society and the hollow globe society, I think they should meet too.

就像有一個像扁平地球社會和空心地球社會一樣的團體，我認為他們也應該見面。

Have a debate.

進行辯論。

Our final question comes from Charlie Anderson with Dougherty & Co.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Dougherty & Co. 的 Charlie Anderson。

I wonder, you mentioned the anti-selling before of the Model 3. Is there a level of production where you flip from anti-selling to selling?

我想知道，你之前提到過Model 3的反賣，有沒有從反賣到賣的生產水平？

Well, I don't know, maybe later this year.

嗯，我不知道，也許今年晚些時候。

Probably not for the next 6 to 9 months.

在接下來的 6 到 9 個月內可能不會。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, everyone for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

All right.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

你們都可以斷開連接，度過美好的一天。