特斯拉 (TSLA) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for your patience. You've joined the Tesla Motors second-quarter 2016 financial results and Q&A.

女士們、先生們，大家好！感謝您的耐心等待。您已加入特斯拉汽車2016年第二季財報及問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

As a reminder, this conference may be recorded. I would like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Sir, you may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議可能會被錄音。我想把電話轉給主持人傑夫·埃文森先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Latif. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's second-quarter 2016 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, JB Straubel, Jason Wheeler, and Jon McNeill. Our Q2 results are in the update letter at the same link as this webcast. And today, during our call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

謝謝拉蒂夫。大家下午好。歡迎收聽特斯拉2016年第二季問答網路直播。今天，馬斯克、JB·史特勞貝爾、傑森·惠勒和喬恩·麥克尼爾也參與了直播。我們的第二季業績更新信函已發布，連結與本次網路直播相同。在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties including those mentioned in our most recent SEC filings.

這些是基於我們目前的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中提及的因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We're going to kick it off today with Jason making some quick comments, followed by Q&A. So please press star one now to get in the queue. During the Q&A, please try and limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Let's keep it tight because we've already talked once this week.

今天我們將首先由 Jason 簡短發言，然後進行問答環節。請立即按星號 1 進入佇列。問答環節請盡量只提出一個問題和一個後續問題。我們盡量簡短，因為這週我們已經聊過一次了。

Jason, over to you.

傑森，交給你了。

Sure. Thanks, Jeff, and thanks, everybody, for joining. I want to make a few brief comments to add a little bit more color to the shareholder letter. We're clearly disappointed with our delivery numbers, but there's some underlying stories that we feel good about and I want to walk you through those briefly. First, automotive gross margin expanded this quarter. Automotive gross margin excluding ZEV credits grew from 20.1% in Q1 to 21.2% in Q2.

當然。謝謝傑夫，也謝謝大家的參與。我想簡單說幾句，為這封給股東的信增添一些色彩。我們對交貨量顯然感到失望，但也有一些我們感覺良好的潛在因素，我想簡單介紹一下。首先，本季汽車業務的毛利率有所提升。不包括零排放汽車積分的汽車業務毛利率從第一季的20.1%成長至第二季的21.2%。

Couple of different factors here. One was the Model S refresh. There was a modest price increase on the refresh, but more importantly, we had baked the number of cost-downs into that vehicle before the launch. And then the second big factor is obviously X production. We talked a lot about how we have come through the struggles on that and how we've managed to climb that production ramp, so that's looking great.

這裡有幾個不同的因素。一是Model S的更新。更新後價格略有上漲，但更重要的是，我們在發布前就已將一系列成本削減納入其中。第二個重要因素顯然是Model X的生產。我們談了很多關於我們如何克服困難以及如何成功提升產量的話題，所以看起來一切都很好。

On a go-forward basis, the way we're thinking about margins is we certainly see opportunities for continued cost downs, both on the engineering front, also on the commercial front as well. We've got a supplier base that is very excited about the Model 3 and is giving us the ability to leverage that (inaudible) cost downs.

展望未來，我們對利潤率的考量是，我們確實看到了持續降低成本的機會，無論是在工程方面，還是在商業方面。我們擁有一群對Model 3充滿期待的供應商，這讓我們能夠充分利用（聽不清楚）成本下降的優勢。

Also we continue manufacturing efficiencies. As we mentioned in the shareholder letter, labor hours per car is trending quite positively right now and we're laser-focused on continued improvement in that key metric.

此外，我們也持續提高生產效率。正如我們在致股東的信中所提到的，目前每輛車的工時趨勢相當積極，我們正專注於持續改善這個關鍵指標。

Next, talk about the cash position for a second. Here's one way to think about, we ended up with $3.25 billion on the balance sheet at the end of the quarter and we started off the year, in December 31, 2015, we had $1.2 billion. We raised $1.7 billion in our secondary offering and we collected on our Model 3 reservations. Therefore, we are at a very healthy position from a cash perspective.

接下來，我們來談談現金狀況。我們可以這樣想：截至本季末，我們的資產負債表上有32.5億美元，而年初，也就是2015年12月31日，我們的資產負債表上有12億美元。我們在二次發行中籌集了17億美元，並且收回了Model 3的預訂款。因此，從現金角度來看，我們的狀況非常健康。

Couple different factors to talk about. One, we've got $678 million drawn on our asset-backed line. This is something that we've talked about in the past. That is definitely backed up by our operations. Two things there. One, approximately 5,000 cars in transit to customers at quarter end, so we're financing our FGI, and we're monetizing our direct lease portfolio.

有幾個因素需要討論。首先，我們的資產支持額度已提取6.78億美元。這是我們過去討論過的。這肯定是由我們的營運所支撐的。另外還有兩點。第一，季度末大約有5000輛汽車正在運輸到客戶手中，因此我們正在為FGI融資，並且我們正在將直接租賃組合貨幣化。

Second factor on the cash position that we'd like to highlight is our continued CapEx discipline. As we talked about in Q1, we had $217 million of CapEx in that quarter. In this quarter, $295 million of CapEx. We compare that to averaging nearly $400 million a quarter throughout 2015. We are actually very pleased with these results and we're comfortable that we aren't doing anything to adversely impact our future.

關於現金狀況，我們想強調的第二個因素是我們持續的資本支出控制。正如我們在第一季所討論的，我們當季的資本支出為2.17億美元。本季的資本支出為2.95億美元。相較之下，2015年全年平均每季的資本支出接近4億美元。我們對這些結果非常滿意，並且確信我們沒有採取任何可能對未來產生不利影響的行動。

On a go-forward basis thinking about CapEx efficiency, you've heard Elon talk a lot about the machine that makes the machine. A big part of that is focusing on volumetric efficiency. In our call on Monday, I talked about how when we started to review a lot of the Model 3 CapEx plans across the Company, there were a bunch of new buildings everywhere.

從未來資本支出效率的角度考慮，你們應該聽過馬斯克經常談論製造機器的機器。其中很大一部分就是關注容積效率。在周一的電話會議上，我談到了當我們開始審查全公司範圍內的Model 3資本支出計劃時，發現到處都在建造一堆新建築。

And the reaction to that was wait a second, we've actually got a nice facilities footprint already and how can we just densify those facilities and not have to invest further in this area? And we're starting to see a lot of that take hold now.

對此的反應是，等等，我們實際上已經擁有了不錯的設施佈局，我們怎麼能在不進一步投資該領域的情況下，只增加這些設施的密度呢？現在我們開始看到很多這樣的情況正在發生。

Second, I think we are making an attempt to crush the conventional wisdom that capacity increases only happen in step-change increments and the capital that follows that in step-change increments as well. And to put a little bit more color on that, there are many ways to optimize our current operations. The way to think about this is we can drive greater throughput through the same investments. So that's our cash position.

其次，我認為我們正在努力打破一種傳統觀念，即產能成長只能逐步遞增，隨之而來的資本投入也只能逐步遞增。更具體一點說，有很多方法可以優化我們目前的營運。我們可以這樣理解：用同樣的投資，我們可以提高產量。這就是我們的現金狀況。

Finally, I would like to talk for a minute about expense management. In addition to our efforts on CapEx efficiency, we are also very focused on OpEx discipline. This quarter, SG&A would've been flat quarter over quarter in spite of our continued expansion in service and sales, were it not for the payroll taxes we paid on our CEO's options exercises. SG&A was up $19 million quarter over quarter on a non-GAAP basis. $17 million of that was the payroll expense associated with those option exercises.

最後，我想談談費用管理。除了努力提高資本支出效率外，我們也非常注重營運支出的紀律。本季度，儘管我們的服務和銷售額持續成長，但若非因執行長行使選擇權而支付的工資稅，銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）環比持平。以非公認會計準則（Non-GAAP）計算，銷售、一般及行政費用較上月增加了1,900萬美元，其中1,700萬美元是與這些選擇權行使相關的薪資支出。

R&D now does continue to increase as we continue to march towards the Model 3 launch and continue to invest in our future. This is as predicted and as we've signalled in the past. So to wrap it all up, we're very happy with the gross margin expansion in the quarter and we have increased our emphasis on OpEx discipline and CapEx efficiency. We believe our Q2 results reflect that and we're not backing down as we move forward.

隨著我們繼續推動Model 3的上市，並持續投資於未來，研發投入確實持續增加。這與我們的預期一致，也正如我們過去所暗示的。總而言之，我們對本季毛利率的成長感到非常滿意，並且我們更加重視營運支出的紀律和資本支出的效率。我們相信第二季的業績反映了這一點，我們不會退縮，而是繼續前進。

Great. Thank you, Jason. All right, Latif, let's go to the first question, please.

太好了。謝謝你，傑森。好的，拉蒂夫，我們開始第一個問題吧。

Thank you, sir. Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley. Mr. Jonas, please make sure your line isn't muted.

謝謝您，先生。我是摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。喬納斯先生，請確保您的線路沒有被靜音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Oh, sorry. It was muted. I'm going to ask this question on behalf of Adam Jonas. He had to drop off the call. This is Neel Mehta. This is coming directly from him. Elon, you have explained that strategic rationale for having SolarCity and Tesla Motors join in a combined company.

哦，抱歉。剛才被靜音了。我代表亞當·喬納斯問這個問題。他只好掛斷電話。我是尼爾梅塔，這是他直接說的。伊隆，你已經解釋了SolarCity和特斯拉汽車合併成一家公司的策略基礎。

When we think of SpaceX, is there any conceivable strategic rationale for Tesla Motors and Tesla Energy, or Tesla Solar, to work closely with the efforts of space exploration? And when we're thinking about this, we're thinking proprietary low earth orbit satellite network to enhance the connected autonomous car ecosystem. Just want to get your thoughts on that first of all and I have a follow-up as well.

當我們想到SpaceX時，特斯拉汽車公司、特斯拉能源公司（或特斯拉太陽能公司）是否有任何可行的策略理由與太空探索事業緊密合作？當我們思考這個問題時，我們想到的是專有的低地球軌道衛星網絡，以增強聯網自動駕駛汽車生態系統。首先我想聽聽您對此的看法，之後我還有一個後續問題。

I don't think there's a strong product rationale to combine SpaceX and Tesla. Whereas there is for Tesla and SolarCity. It's really quite tenuous for SpaceX and Tesla. There is a little cooperation that happens between the companies, but it's not enough that would justify merging them into one entity.

我認為SpaceX和特斯拉的合併缺乏強而有力的產品理由。而特斯拉和SolarCity的合併則有。 SpaceX和特斯拉之間的合作確實相當脆弱。兩家公司之間有一些合作，但不足以成為合併成一家公司的合理理由。

Got it. Can you also give us an update on your and Tesla's proprietary mapping initiatives?

明白了。您能否向我們介紹一下您和特斯拉的專有地圖計畫的最新進展？

I think we would prefer to be confidential in that regard.

我認為我們更願意在這方面保密。

All right. Let's see if we can go to the next question.

好的。我們看看能不能進入下一個問題。

What we said thus far is just that there's need to have much higher definition maps than currently exist anywhere in the world in order to have full autonomy and we're in the process of building those and, I think, making good progress.

到目前為止，我們所說的只是，為了實現完全自主，需要擁有比世界上任何地方現有的更高清的地圖，我們正在建立這些地圖，我認為，我們正在取得良好的進展。

Got it. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Brian Johnson, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

Thank you for taking my question. A couple questions very much tied to cash flow and the borrowing capacity. First is just around customer deposits, which were a source of cash in the quarter but look to be about $288 million. As of May, you had 373,000-ish Model 3 preorders, which would imply about a $375 million inflow. Could you maybe walk us between that number and what the actual change in deposits were and, in particular, where did Model 3 preorders end the quarter at?

感謝您回答我的問題。有幾個問題與現金流和借貸能力密切相關。首先是關於客戶定金，這部分定金是本季的現金來源，但目前看來約為2.88億美元。截至5月份，Model 3的預訂量約為37.3萬輛，這意味著約有3.75億美元的現金流入。您能否解釋一下這個數字與實際定金變化之間的關係？特別是，本季末Model 3的預訂量是多少？

Sure. In terms of thinking about the cash flow, yes, you're doing your math correctly, but we also release deposits when we deliver cars. So there is an inflow and there is an outflow there. And we had, the deposits on the early Model X cars were larger than the later Model X cars as well, so that's one of the impacts there as well.

當然。從現金流的角度來說，你的計算沒錯，但我們在交付汽車時也會收取訂金。所以，這裡面有資金流入，也有資金流出。而且，早期 Model X 車型的訂金也比後期 Model X 車型高，所以這也是影響之一。

In terms of the Model 3 reservations, the 373,000 number that you reference is what we talked about when we did our secondary offering. We're sticking to that number in terms of disclosure.

關於Model 3的預訂量，您提到的37.3萬輛，正是我們在二次發售時談到的。在資訊揭露方面，我們堅持這個數字。

Okay. Second question around the shift from increase on the balance sheet captive lending. My quick calculations, if you go up 8% in the back half off of your $50,000 guide, that seems to be at $100,000, about a $350 million cash need. Actually, it would be less with the cost of goods, so call it $250 million, $280 million.

好的。第二個問題是關於資產負債表上自保貸款增加的轉變。我快速計算了一下，如果在5萬美元的指導性貸款基礎上，後半部分增加8%，那麼現金需求似乎為10萬美元，大約是3.5億美元。實際上，如果加上商品成本，需求會更少，所以大概是2.5億或2.8億美元。

Are you going to finance that out of your ABL? How quickly can you get another lease partner? What do the amendments to the credit agreement for SolarCity kind of do to your ability to borrow against that for this captive financing?

你們打算用資產抵押擔保（ABL）來融資嗎？你們多久能找到新的租賃合作夥伴？ SolarCity信貸協議的修訂對你們透過自保融資獲得抵押擔保的能力有何影響？

Sure. So in terms of the ABL is definitely available for some of that for sure. And then the overall liquidity position gives us confidence that we'll be able to do this. At the same time, we do have a lot, many active discussions going on with other lease partners and we're looking at other ways to do this as well. And I don't want to talk a lot about SolarCity on this call. That's not what it is, but they've got some pretty advance capability in thinking through how to walk through this as well.

當然。所以，就ABL而言，部分貸款肯定是可行的。而整體流動性狀況也讓我們有信心做到這一點。同時，我們確實正在與其他租賃合作夥伴進行大量積極的討論，我們也在尋找其他途徑來實現這一點。我不想在這次電話會議上過多談論SolarCity。 SolarCity並非如此，但他們在思考如何解決這個問題方面擁有相當先進的能力。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Sure. Great questions.

當然。好問題。

Charlie Anderson, Dougherty and Company.

查理·安德森，Dougherty and Company。

Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is around the sharing of vehicles described in the updated master plan. So if we're moving from 5% to 10% utilization on the vehicle to some larger number, I wonder what you think the ramifications of that might be on the number of cars that need to be produced every year. And then maybe the ramifications as it relates to the supercharger of the cars are, the supercharger network if the cars are always driving around. And then I have a follow-up.

感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於更新後的總體規劃中描述的車輛共享。如果我們將車輛利用率從5%到10%提高到更高的數字，我想知道您認為這會對每年需要生產的汽車數量產生什麼影響。然後，如果汽車一直在行駛，這可能會對汽車的超級充電樁網路產生影響。然後我還有一個後續問題。

Well, I think there's the demand for autonomous cars will asset weigh the production capability. So you want to bear in mind that the global fleet of vehicles is about 2.5 billion roughly and total new vehicle production every year is only about 100 million. So the fleet is basically turning over every roughly 20, 25 years. We would have to make some truly enormous number of autonomous vehicles for there to be any demand saturation. Because it'll basically be the only car anyone wants to buy.

嗯，我認為自動駕駛汽車的需求將對產能產生重大影響。所以，要記住，全球汽車保有量約為25億輛，而每年新車總產量僅約1億輛。因此，全球汽車保有量基本上每20到25年就會更新一次。我們必須生產出數量驚人的自動駕駛汽車，才能滿足市場需求。因為自動駕駛汽車基本上會成為人們唯一想買的汽車。

Thanks. And then for my second question, I wonder if you could clarify comments made on the last call about inverter technology. You mentioned having some of the best in the world for power electronics. So I wonder if you could just comment indeed it's the case that you will be making your own inverter, and if so, what would be the benefit to the overall system with your inverter technology versus what's used today?

謝謝。我的第二個問題，您能否澄清一下上次電話會議中關於逆變器技術的評論？您提到，你們擁有全世界最好的電力電子技術。所以，能否請您解釋一下，你們確實會自行生產逆變器？如果是的話，與目前使用的逆變器技術相比，採用你們的逆變器技術對整個系統有何益處？

There's no question Tesla is going to do an integrated inverter. It's the logical thing to do. I think we've got the most advanced inverter engineering team in the world. And so it makes sense to, just as we did the inverters on the vehicles to do it with the solar as well. And have it in a very tight package at a cents-per-watt level that is, I think probably twice as good as anyone else. Maybe better than that.

毫無疑問，特斯拉會推出整合式逆變器。這是合乎邏輯的做法。我認為我們擁有世界上最先進的逆變器工程團隊。因此，就像我們在汽車上安裝逆變器一樣，在太陽能上也採用整合式逆變器也是合理的。而且，我們將其封裝在一個非常緊湊的封裝中，成本控制在每瓦幾美分的水平，我認為這可能是其他公司的兩倍，甚至可能更好。

So that's like the obvious move there. And as part of what is referring to as kind of an integrated product. If you put yourself in the consumer's shoes, you just want it to work. You don't want to know how it works, you don't care about the details. It's just go to work reliably, look good, not take up a ton of space. The buying process has got to be easy.

所以這很顯而易見。這可以說是一種整合產品的一部分。如果你站在消費者的角度，你只希望它能用。你不想知道它是如何運作的，你也不關心細節。它只需要可靠地工作，外觀漂亮，不佔用太多空間。購買過程必須簡單易行。

You can check up on it with the app on your phone. So there's only one phone app. You want it to be easy. You want it to just work and you want it to be affordable. You want it to look good. So that's what we're going to do.

您可以使用手機上的應用程式進行查看。所以只有一個手機應用程式。您希望它簡單易用，功能齊全，價格實惠，外觀精美。這就是我們要做的。

Yes. I think just to add to that, when power electronics work well, you really don't even notice them.

是的。我想補充一下，當電力電子設備運作良好時，你甚至不會注意到它們。

Exactly.

確切地。

No one thinks about the inverter for your electric car. You don't even know it has one.

沒人會想到你的電動車有逆變器。你甚至不知道它有逆變器。

Most people don't even know what an inverter was. What is an in -- they've never heard of this thing (multiple speakers).

大多數人甚至不知道逆變器是什麼。什麼是輸入輸出——他們從來沒聽說過這個東西（多揚聲器）。

Our goal is to basically make them seamless and make it, as Elon said, easy for people to use so they don't have to worry about what an inverter is, how it works. It's just all integrated into one simple system, just like it is in the car.

我們的目標是讓它們無縫銜接，正如埃隆所說，方便人們使用，這樣他們就不必再費心去理解逆變器是什麼，它是如何工作的。所有一切都整合到一個簡單的系統中，就像在汽車裡一樣。

Most people don't even know what AC or DC is. If you ask them what's DC current? Or what's direct current, what's alternating current, they would not be able to tell you. A lot of people don't even know the difference between power and energy, that one's in kilowatts and another one is in kilowatt hours. And they don't need to know. There's not a good reason for them to know. Stuff should just work and take care of itself.

大多數人甚至不知道什麼是交流電（AC）或直流電（DC）。如果你問他們什麼是直流電？什麼是直流電？什麼是交流電，他們根本答不出來。很多人甚至不知道功率和能量的差別，一個是千瓦，一個是千瓦時。他們也不需要知道。他們沒有理由知道。東西應該自己運轉，自己運轉。

Latif, next question.

拉蒂夫，下一個問題。

Colin Langan, UBS.

瑞銀集團的科林·蘭根 (Colin Langan)。

Oh, great. Thanks for taking my question. Can you just give an update of the Model S demand? In the press release, you indicate S and X orders are up about 65% year-over-year. But if we look at deliveries and production of the S, it hasn't changed that much since Q4. And you're rolling out the lower-priced 60 version. So if demand is up so much, why offer a lower-priced model and why hasn't production really been up that much more?

哦，太好了。感謝您回答我的問題。您能否介紹一下 Model S 需求的最新情況？在新聞稿中，您表示 S 和 X 的訂單年增了約 65%。但如果我們看一下 S 的交付量和產量，就會發現自第四季以來，情況並沒有太大變化。而且你們正在推出價格較低的 60 版本。那麼，如果需求成長如此之快，為什麼還要推出價格較低的車型呢？為什麼產量實際上並沒有大幅成長？

It's Jon. I'll give you a little bit of color on the demand, which has been healthy for Model S in the second quarter and into the third quarter as well. As we mentioned in the shareholder letter, we didn't have cars in the European market with the new refresh until the last month of the quarter, but despite that, we had year-over-year growth in Model S demand.

我是喬恩。我來簡單介紹一下需求狀況。 Model S 的需求在第二季和第三季一直表現良好。正如我們在致股東的信中所提到的，直到本季最後一個月，我們才在歐洲市場推出新車型。儘管如此，Model S 的需求仍然較去年同期成長。

And we also had some very healthy growth in the markets where we have cars in stores. So we had double digit growth in both North America and China. Really healthy growth in both of those markets. That growth has continued into the third quarter but one of the things that, one of the reasons we introduced the 60 was we saw more Model 3 demand than we anticipated. We talked about that last quarter.

我們在已上線車輛的市場也實現了非常健康的成長。北美和中國市場都實現了兩位數的成長。這兩個市場都實現了非常健康的成長。這種成長態勢一直持續到第三季度，但我們推出Model 60的原因之一是，我們看到Model 3的需求超出了預期。我們上個季度討論過這個問題。

And a number of those reservation holders said to us we would love to be in a Tesla today if you could provide a more affordable version of the Model S. Our battery technology allows us to do that. And so we introduced the 60 and that's generated demand out of a new market segment. It is reaching down into that Model 3 reservation holder territory. And portends really good things for future Model 3 demand. But, it has opened up a very nice segment for us for Model S.

許多預訂用戶告訴我們，如果特斯拉能提供更實惠的 Model S 版本，我們今天就很樂意購買。我們的電池技術使我們能夠做到這一點。因此，我們推出了 60 型車，這在一個全新的細分市場中催生了需求。它正在深入 Model 3 預訂用戶的市場，預示著未來 Model 3 的需求將大幅成長。而且，它也為我們開拓了一個非常好的 Model S 細分市場。

People are not buying the base model. They buy the 60 and then they option it up quite a bit. So it ends up having an average sale price like over $80,000. And then actually all the 60s actually have the 75 capacity. It's just software limited. There's the potential for them to upgrade over time and certainly for the resale value of the car to be enhanced when it's returned to Tesla by unlocking the additional 15 kilowatt hours of battery capability.

人們不會購買基本款。他們會先買60，然後再選一些進階配置。所以最終的平均售價超過8萬美元。實際上，所有60都擁有75千瓦時的容量。這只是軟體限制。隨著時間的推移，他們有升級的潛力，當車輛返還給特斯拉後，解鎖額外的15千瓦時電池容量，無疑會提升車輛的轉售價值。

But I think in sort of a nutshell, the way to think about Tesla right now is that we are right around 2,000 cars a week. And we're trying to balance the mix to be roughly half X and S. There are some variations depending upon regionality. Some parts that will prefer more SUV, some prefer more sedans.

但我認為，簡而言之，特斯拉目前的銷售量大概是每週2,000輛左右。我們正在努力平衡車型組合，大約一半是X車型，一半是S車型。根據地區不同，車型會有所差異。有些地區更傾向於SUV，有些地區則更傾向於轎車。

And we do tend to batch up our cars. So this is why occasionally you see nonsensical articles about Tesla's demand suddenly rising in some country or suddenly falling. It's got nothing to do with that, it's just happened to be when the ship arrived. But high level overview is just we see demand being fairly strong at an average of 2,000 cars per week. We are able to maintain production at that level, notwithstanding occasional supplier hiccups.

我們確實傾向於批量生產汽車。所以你偶爾會看到一些荒謬的文章，說特斯拉在某個國家的需求突然上升或下降。這跟需求無關，只是剛好發生在貨船抵達的時候。但整體來看，我們看到需求相當強勁，平均每週2000輛。儘管偶爾會出現供應商問題，但我們能夠維持這一產量水準。

And then hopefully we can grow that a little bit towards the end of the quarter and then a little more in Q4. And our aspirations, unvarnished here. This is just quite we are aiming to do internally is to do a little better than 2000 a week in sales and deliveries in Q4, combined S and X. I feel fairly optimistic about achieving that goal. I think our core business is actually doing quite well right now.

希望我們能在本季末實現小幅成長，然後在第四季再進一步成長。我們的願景，就此而言，不加掩飾。我們內部的目標是，在第四季度，S 和 X 部門的銷售和交付量合計達到每週略高於 2000 輛。我對實現這一目標相當樂觀。我認為我們的核心業務目前表現相當不錯。

Just as a follow-up, any update on the stationary storage? I think your original targets were $400 million to $500 million for this year and $3 billion to $5 billion for next year. Any just color on how that's trending?

順便問一下，關於固定式儲能有什麼最新進展嗎？我記得您最初的目標是今年4億到5億美元，明年30億到50億美元。能具體說一下目前的趨勢嗎？

Heavily enduring in production constraints. So we've got some next generation technology and we're going to split up that production line, so is going to be heavily concentrated in Q4 and probably even heavily in November and December. But I think it's going to be real exciting when people see it. So that's why I expect exponential growth from there. I think it's really going to go ballistic.

生產限制嚴重。我們擁有一些下一代技術，並將拆分生產線，因此產量將主要集中在第四季度，甚至可能在11月和12月。但我認為，當人們看到它時，一定會非常興奮。所以我預計屆時將會出現指數級成長。我認為它真的會飛速發展。

We have been making quite a few background investments in the markets where we are growing, setting up the teams, and setting up to get ready for expanded product installation and distribution, especially in places like Australia and Germany. Some of that takes a bit of time, but it's laying the infrastructure for faster growth.

我們在正在發展的市場進行了大量的背景投資，組建團隊，並為擴大產品安裝和分銷做好準備，尤其是在澳洲和德國等地。其中一些投資需要一些時間，但這為更快的成長奠定了基礎。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

All right, Latif. Let's go to the next question, please.

好的，拉蒂夫。請我們進入下一個問題。

Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的科林·拉什。

As you look forward and without the residual value guarantee, can you talk about what's going to happen with the warranty expense on the vehicles?

展望未來，如果沒有殘值保證，您能談談車輛的保固費用會怎麼樣嗎？

Sure. I think the way to think about warranty, and we put this in the shareholder letter, our ongoing reserves is roughly consistent with what it was last quarter. And the RVG really doesn't have an impact on warranty expense. Really warranty expense is about reliability and reliability is something that we're constantly monitoring and as we see positive things happen or things that go in the other direction with reliability, that's how we then think about the on-going reserves for warranty. So I look at the continued (multiple speakers). Sorry. Go ahead.

當然。我認為，考慮到保修，我們在致股東的信中提到了這一點，我們的持續準備金與上一季大致一致。 RVG其實對保固費用沒有影響。保固費用實際上與可靠性有關，而可靠性是我們持續監控的指標。當我們看到可靠性方面出現正面變化或相反的情況時，我們就會以此為基礎來考慮保固的持續準備金。所以我繼續（多位發言者）。抱歉，請繼續。

The quality I think has improved quite dramatically specifically with respect to X. We had a lot of challenges in the production ramp. That's always the most difficult time when you are going from 0 to 1,000 cars per week. It's just you got to pull this huge baggage train of suppliers along with you. And you've got to solve a lot of issues internally.

我認為品質提升相當顯著，尤其是在X系列方面。我們在量產過程中遇到了許多挑戰。每週產量從0到1000輛，這總是最艱難的時刻。你必須拉著供應商這列沉重的「行李車」一起前進。而且你必須在內部解決很多問題。

And so that production ramp is a lot of hurt. But now we're pretty stable at the 2,000 cars per week level. And every time we've [rolled a car] at this point, it's getting better. So each passing week gets better and better, so I actually feel pretty good about our warranty reserves actually declining over time as a result of that.

所以產量提升確實帶來了很大影響。但現在我們每週產量穩定在2000輛。而且我們每生產一輛新車，情況就會好轉。所以每週都會越來越好，所以我對我們的保固儲備金因此而逐漸減少感到很欣慰。

Okay, great. My follow up is around Mobileye and the ending of that partnership and how you guys are going to approach that functionality going forward with the driver assist and the autonomous driving push going forward.

好的，太好了。我的後續問題是關於Mobileye和雙方合作關係的結束，以及你們將如何處理這項功能，以及未來在駕駛輔助和自動駕駛方面的進展。

I think we will have more significant announcement on that later, so it's not really. I think this call is not the right time for that except that it will be a Tesla solution, internal solution.

我認為我們稍後會就此發布更重要的公告，所以目前還不是。我認為這次電話會議不是討論這個問題的合適時機，除非這將會是一個特斯拉內部的解決方案。

Okay, great. Thanks, guys.

好的，太好了。謝謝大家。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的瑞安·布林克曼。

Great. Thanks for taking my question, which I guess is really for Elon. As Tesla grows very quickly and becomes increasingly diversified going from just the Model S to recently include the X and now the 3 soon and you've added Tesla Energy to the mix, now SolarCity. So I'm really curious how you think about management focus and attention and what you and your team are going to be doing to ensure strong execution and focus as you head into the very important and, by your own admission, very challenging launch of the Model 3?

太好了。感謝您回答我的問題，我想這個問題其實是想問伊隆的。特斯拉發展非常迅速，產品線也越來越多元化，從最初的Model S到最近的Model X，再到即將推出的Model 3，而且你們還加入了特斯拉能源（Tesla Energy），也就是SolarCity。所以我非常好奇，您如何看待管理的重點和關注？在Model 3這個非常重要、您自己也承認極具挑戰性的發表會上，您和您的團隊將如何確保強而有力的執行力和專注力？

Well, I mean, the Model 3 [is only] our focus. Things feel really quite stable with X and S where we are kind of in the mode of continuous improvement. But no fundamental issues. So I feel like the machine that's making X and S is actually functioning quite well right now, whereas I definitely burnt out a few neurons and let other people [do it], starting the production ramp this year. I feel we are in a good place at this point. So the focus really is on Model 3, followed by full autonomy. As the top two priorities.

嗯，我的意思是，Model 3 只是我們的重點。 Model X 和 Model S 目前感覺相當穩定，我們處於持續改進的模式。但沒有什麼根本性的問題。所以我覺得生產 Model X 和 Model S 的機器現在運作良好，而我肯定耗費了一些精力，讓其他人來做，今年開始提升產量。我覺得我們目前處於一個好的階段。所以，我們的重點確實是 Model 3，其次才是完全自動駕駛。這是最重要的兩個優先事項。

Okay and then the follow up is, as you're starting here in 3Q to ramp up the spending on both the Gigafactory and the Model 3 development capacity, et cetera. Are you seeing that one or the other, the Model 3 or the retrofit of [3] is providing more or less potential bottlenecks than the other in terms of getting to that July 1 Model 3 launch?

好的，接下來的問題是，從第三季開始，你們將增加超級工廠和 Model 3 開發產能等方面的支出。您是否認為，在 7 月 1 日 Model 3 發布之前，Model 3 和 [3] 的改造專案會造成更多還是更少的潛在瓶頸？

I don't actually know of any, there's not any one standout issue for July 1. I just said this on the last earnings call and I know it bears reiterating because I think it makes sense if you think about it, but it does require a bit of thinking about it. I don't expect us to be at full production on July 1. But I have to drive all suppliers and internal efforts to that date, knowing that some will fall short. And those that fall short will be cut out of the picture.

我其實不知道有什麼問題，7月1日之前沒有什麼突出的問題。我上次財報電話會議上就說過，我知道有必要重申一下，因為我覺得仔細想想很有道理，但這確實需要一些思考。我不指望我們能在7月1日全面投產。但我必須推動所有供應商和內部工作，確保它們都能達到那個日期，我知道有些供應商會達不到要求。而那些達不到要求的供應商將被排除在外。

And if there are teams internally that fail to execute effectively, we will reorganize those teams. But if several thousand parts are not driven to a particular date, there is no chance of making any point even past that date. In an ideal world, this would be a confidential internal, July 1 would be a confidential internal target. Given the amount of attention that Tesla receives and the fact that there are several, if you count two or three, three and four suppliers, there's several thousand companies involved. It is obviously impossible to keep that confidential. You can't.

如果內部團隊執行不力，我們會重組這些團隊。但如果數千個零件無法在特定日期前交付，那麼即使過了那個日期，也沒有任何意義。理想情況下，這應該是內部保密的，7月1日也應該是內部保密的目標。考慮到特斯拉受到的關注程度，以及涉及的供應商數量——如果算兩三家、三、四家——總共有數千家公司。顯然，要保密是不可能的。你做不到。

So then in order to have a consistent message, internally knowing that that message will also reach externally, that's where the July 1 date comes from. There isn't any other way to do it and if anybody has got better suggestions, I'd love to hear what they are. I expect production to occur some point after July 1, but I don't know what today would cause us to slip past that date and if I did I would take action to address it.

所以，為了確保訊息一致，讓內部知道這個訊息也能傳達到外部，7月1日這個日期就是由此而來的。沒有其他辦法了，如果有人有更好的建議，我很樂意聽聽。我預計生產會在7月1日之後的某個時間點進行，但我不知道今天什麼原因會導致我們錯過這個日期，如果真的錯過了，我會採取行動解決。

Great. Thanks for the color.

太棒了！謝謝你的顏色。

All right.

好的。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

美國銀行的約翰‧墨菲。

Good afternoon. The first question is as we think about the kilowatt hour versions of the S and X, I'm just curious if you could talk about the profitability of those right now versus the other models or sort of the corporate average as you see it.

午安.第一個問題是，我們討論的是S和X的千瓦時版本，我很好奇您能否談談這些車型目前的盈利能力，與其他車型相比如何，或者您認為這些車型的企業平均盈利能力如何？

Yes, sure (multiple speakers). Go ahead, Elon.

是的，當然。 （多位發言者）請說，艾隆。

Because people are optioning up the 60, it actually ends up being decent. It's not, maybe it is 15% to 20% gross margin whereas say something, like if somebody orders the performance dual motor, that might actually be more like a 30%, 35% gross margin. But there's just a small number of people that want high-performance cars and are willing to pay triple digits, or six digits I should say. But it also remains to be seen how many who order the 60 then choose to do the upgrade to the 75 kilowatt hour rate.

因為人們選擇升級到60千瓦時，所以最終的售價還算合理。毛利率可能在15%到20%之間，而如果有人訂購高性能雙馬達車型，毛利率可能在30%到35%之間。但想要高性能汽車的人畢竟是少數，他們願意支付三位數，或者應該說六位數的價格。至於有多少訂購了60千瓦時車型的人最終選擇升級到75千瓦時的電價，這還有待觀察。

There is going to be some number, it's too early to tell, of people who buy it at 60, realize they want the extra range, and then they can just order it kind of like an in-app purchase on the car screen and unlock it. I suspect we will see a pretty decent number of people that. But we don't, it is still very early, so it's hard to say what number that would be. And if they do do that, then it would push gross margins up into the 20%s, like mid-20%s or something.

現在還言之過早，肯定會有不少人購買60英里（約合60公里）的電動車，意識到自己想要更長的續航里程，然後他們就可以在車載螢幕上進行類似應用內購買的訂購，然後解鎖汽車。我估計會有相當多的人這樣做。但我們目前還沒有，現在還太早，所以很難預測具體數字。如果他們真的這麼做了，那麼毛利率就會升到20%左右，例如25%左右。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just, Jason, maybe just two quick sort of housekeeping questions. CapEx of $2.25 billion, you're running at a run rate that's less than half that through the first half of the year, so just curious how realistic that number is for the full year because you guys have committed to it in the shareholder letter again. And then also the auto gross margin going up 200 to 300 basis points off of what base? It's not clear what base that's coming off of. Just trying to understand the exit gross margin for the year you're expecting.

好的，這很有幫助。然後，傑森，我只想問兩個簡單的內部問題。資本支出是22.5億美元，而今年上半年的營運率還不到這個數字的一半，所以我很好奇這個數字對全年來說是否現實，因為你們已經在致股東的信中再次承諾了這一點。另外，汽車毛利率會基於什麼基準上漲200到300個基點？目前還不清楚這個基準是基於什麼。我只是想了解一下您預期的今年的退出毛利率。

Sure. No problem. I want to add just a little bit a color onto the 60 gross margin numbers too. We're aspirational on those, but the way to think about this is very important. Those cars are gross margin positive and they're producing cash. So if you think from an overall operating leverage perspective, even if the gross margin profile on those is less than our other variants, it's still producing contribution margin to pay for the fixed cost of the business. So, it's the right economic thing to do. Even more importantly, it's right for the customer to continue to broaden the market that way.

當然，沒問題。我還想稍微補充60個毛利率數字。我們對此抱有很高的期望，但思考這個問題的方式非常重要。這些車型的毛利率為正，並且正在產生現金流。因此，如果從整體營運槓桿的角度來看，即使這些車型的毛利率低於我們其他車型，它仍然會產生貢獻利潤，以支付業務的固定成本。所以，這樣做符合經濟效益。更重要的是，客戶以這種方式繼續拓展市場也是正確的。

On your two housekeeping questions, good questions. On the CapEx front, as you heard in my opening comments, we are deadly focused on CapEx efficiency. So I think we can beat the $2.25 billion number, but we didn't see any need to update that guidance at this time. And then your question about gross margin on a basis, I was just looking at the quarter-over-quarter. In Q1, automotive gross margin excluding ZEV credits was 20.1% and we expanded that to 21.9% in Q2. And it's expansion on both the X and the S variants.

關於您提到的兩個日常問題，問得好。關於資本支出方面，正如您在我開場白中提到的，我們非常注重資本支出效率。所以我認為我們可以超過22.5億美元的目標，但我們認為目前沒有必要更新這個預期。關於您關於毛利率的問題，我只是關注了環比數據。第一季度，不包括零排放汽車積分的汽車毛利率為20.1%，而第二季度我們將其提高到了21.9%。 X和S車型的毛利率都在提高。

But the two to three points of expansion in Q3 and Q4 is off the 21.9% base in second quarter?

但第三季和第四季的兩到三個點的擴張是相對於第二季的 21.9% 基數而言的嗎？

Oh, I see. You're asking me about the forward-looking?

哦，我明白了。你問我關於前瞻性的事嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So we expect where we are at today, we will see another two to three points of expansion between now and the end of the year.

因此，我們預計，在目前的水平上，從現在到年底，我們還將看到另外兩到三個點的擴張。

Great. Thank you very much.

太好了。非常感謝。

Joseph Spak, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Joseph Spak。

Thanks. Good afternoon. Jason, just first question to follow up on that last one. Even two to three points on gross margin sequentially, that seems below the prior guidance, which I think called for 30% to exit the year on the Model S and 25% on the Model X. So, is it related to the updated mix view on the 60? Was there something else going on or what is the source of the change?

謝謝。午安.傑森，我的第一個問題是跟進最後一個問題。即使毛利率環比下降了兩到三個點，這似乎也低於先前的預期，我認為之前的預期是Model S年底毛利率為30%，Model X年底毛利率為25%。那麼，這與Model 60車型的更新後的混合配置方案有關嗎？還有其他原因嗎？或者說，導致這項改變的原因是什麼？

A couple of things there. And our previous guidance had been approaching 25% on X and approaching 30% on S. I think we're maybe a quarter or two off on that, but you're pointing to the right things. One is just the mix shift that we're seeing, with Xs being produced and those margins are healthy and heading in the right direction, but they are obviously less than S. And now that we are halfway through the year too, we have talked a lot about just the production issues we have had overall.

有幾件事。我們之前的預期是X系列的利潤率接近25%，S系列的利潤率接近30%。我認為我們可能比這個數字少了一兩個季度，但你說的是對的。首先是我們看到的產品組合發生了變化，X系列正在生產，利潤率健康且正朝著正確的方向發展，但顯然低於S系列。現在也已經過了半年，我們已經多次討論過我們整體上遇到的生產問題。

And those certainly have an impact on the first half of the year and it's just difficult to make up for all of that in the next six months. And then the impact you talk about the 60. The 60s may have somewhat of an impact on gross margin.

這些肯定會對上半年產生影響，而且很難在接下來的六個月內全部彌補。然後你提到的60%的影響。 60%可能會對毛利率產生一定影響。

Pretty small, though.

不過相當小。

Pretty small. Yes.

相當小。是的。

Yes. It's pretty small. I mean, I'm cautiously optimistic that we will actually meet those numbers by the end of the year. Maybe not for Q4 as a whole, but exiting Q4, my best guess is we are just under 30% for S and around 25% for X by the end of this year. That is what it looks like to me.

是的，規模很小。我的意思是，我謹慎樂觀地認為我們能在年底前達到這些數字。也許不是整個第四季度，但從第四季度開始，我的最佳預測是，到今年年底，S 部門的銷售額將略低於 30%，X 部門的銷售額將達到 25% 左右。在我看來，情況確實如此。

Okay. And then, Elon, just as a philosophical question. As you transition to an in-house autopilot, or autonomous solution, would you consider, in order to help build public support and confidence about releasing regular reports similar to what Google does on what the technology is doing and open the data?

好的。然後，伊隆，我想問一個哲學問題。當你過渡到內部自動駕駛或自主解決方案時，為了幫助建立公眾支持和信心，你會考慮像谷歌一樣定期發布技術進度報告並開放資料嗎？

Well, unfortunately and fortunately, Tesla can't sneeze without there being a national headline. So I don't think you have to worry too much about whether we'll report it because the media will and then inflate it in size by 1,000. You know what I mean? Last year there were 35,000 automotive deaths in the US. How many did you read about?

嗯，不幸也是幸運的是，特斯拉打個噴嚏都會成為全國頭條新聞。所以我覺得你不用太擔心我們會不會報道，因為媒體會把新聞誇大1000倍。你懂我的意思嗎？去年美國有3.5萬人死於車禍。你讀過多少這樣的報道？

Right. I guess maybe instead of public support, what about regulator support? I mean, what are the views on sharing the data in that respect?

對。我想，除了民眾支持，監管機構的支持怎麼樣？我的意思是，在這方面，大家對資料共享有什麼看法？

Actually, with the regulators, we share the data well in advance of, as soon as we know it. We shared the data regarding say the Florida fatality like a month, certainly weeks before, and it's an actually open investigation. In fact, I mean, we're not totally clear on why they opened an investigation because they actually had all the information before they made a formal investigation. So it was a little puzzling as to why they -- there was no -- we would have already given them all the information. So there wasn't really anything more to learn.

實際上，我們會提前很久就與監管機構分享數據，一旦我們掌握了相關資訊就會立即分享。比如說，佛羅裡達州的死亡事件，我們大概在一個月前，甚至幾週前就分享了數據，而且這其實是一項公開調查。事實上，我的意思是，我們並不完全清楚他們為什麼要展開調查，因為他們在正式調查之前就已經掌握了所有資訊。所以，我們有點困惑，為什麼他們——我們當時沒有——就已經把所有資訊都給了他們。所以，實際上沒有什麼需要進一步了解的了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

James Albertine, Consumer Edge Research.

詹姆斯‧阿爾伯丁（James Albertine），消費者優勢研究公司。

Great. Thank you and good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Real quick, a housekeeping item. I've heard and we saw obviously in the second quarter there was some lumpiness in the production and you ended up I think with 50, 100 or so vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter.

太好了。謝謝，下午好。感謝您回答問題。簡單說一下常規問題。我聽說，我們也看到，第二季的生產明顯出現了一些波動，到本季末，大概有50到100輛汽車在運輸途中。

But I've heard Jason say stabilization here a few times on the call. Just wanted to get a sense for how we should be thinking about the back half deliveries and back half expenses. Should it be relatively linear from here as we work toward, for example, your 30% year-over-year expense guidance? Thanks.

但我在電話會議上聽到傑森多次提到穩定。我只是想了解我們應該如何考慮下半年的交付量和下半年的支出。從現在開始，它應該相對線性地發展嗎？例如，我們努力實現您提出的30%的年成長支出目標。謝謝。

I would also like to say a few words and then Jason can add the rest. Basically we were in production hell for the first six months this year. Man, it was hell. And then we just managed to sort of climb out of hell in, basically part-way through June. And now the production line is humming.

我也想說幾句，然後傑森可以補充。基本上，今年前六個月我們的生產就像身處地獄。天哪，簡直是地獄。後來，我們設法在六月中旬擺脫了困境。現在生產線已經恢復正常運作了。

And our suppliers mostly have their (expletive) together. There's a few that don't. One I'm going to be visiting on Saturday personally to figure out what the hell's going on there. But we'll solve it. But the thing that's crazy hard about cars is that there's several thousand unique items and you move as fast as a slowest item in the whole car. So production, it feels like we're -- I'm not losing sleep at night, literally, because of production issues right now.

我們的供應商大多都（髒話）齊了。但也有一些沒有。我星期六會親自去拜訪其中一家，看看到底是怎麼回事。但我們會解決的。但汽車生產最困難的地方在於，它有數千個不同的零件，你的生產速度和整車最慢的零件一樣快。所以在生產方面，感覺我們——我現在晚上並沒有因為生產問題而失眠，真的。

2,000 feels like a good number with a slow and steady increase in that number. And then continued cost efficiencies which help with gross margin. Some features that are going to come out, that will also help on the revenue side. And so I feel actually really good about S and X right now. But I've got a whole lot of mental scar tissue from the first six months this year. Jason?

2000 感覺是個不錯的數字，而且這個數字還在緩慢而穩定地成長。此外，成本效率的持續提升也有助於提高毛利率。一些即將推出的功能也會對收入有所貢獻。所以，我現在對 S 和 X 感覺還不錯。但今年前六個月的經驗給我留下了很深的心理陰影。傑森？

Yes. I think, Elon, I think you covered it well. In terms of the modeling question, yes, I think just extrapolating from where we're at now we're stable, we will continue to be better on production throughout the course of the year. We've got a couple more holiday weeks in Q4. You might want to think about that when you're doing your modeling. But, yes. I think Elon covered it well (multiple speakers).

是的。伊隆，我覺得你說得很好。關於建模的問題，是的，我認為從我們目前的穩定狀態推斷，我們的生產狀況在全年都會持續改善。第四季我們還有幾週的假期。你在做建模的時候可能需要考慮到這一點。但是，是的。我認為伊隆說得很好（多位發言者）。

Almost every week, we see an improvement in labor hours per car, which is great from a cost standpoint. Also in terms of the production team has been working super hard and we don't want to burn people out. It's good to see the hours per car come down almost every week as a sign of improved efficiency.

幾乎每週，我們都能看到每輛車的工時有所改善，從成本角度來看，這很棒。而且，生產團隊一直非常努力，我們不想讓大家過度勞累。很高興看到每輛車的工時幾乎每週都在減少，這是效率提高的跡象。

Very good. I appreciate the additional color. If I may just sneak in a quick follow-up on the autonomy topic. Elon, as we think about the stages of autonomy, I believe NHTSA sort of outlined sort of five stages or zero to five and we've seen some competitors of yours outline, with some detail, 2017 to 2020 to 2022 type targets.

非常好。感謝您的補充。請容許我快速跟進一下自動駕駛的話題。伊隆，說到自動駕駛的階段，我記得美國國家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）概述了五個階段，或者說從零到五階段，我們也看到你們的一些競爭對手也詳細概述了2017年到2020年再到2022年的目標。

How should we think about your target and can you help us dimension a little bit more your targets in the past to level, I guess, five. Let's assume for the moment that nothing's changed, given the accident in May. And if it has incrementally, that would be helpful, but just wanted to understand in more detail, I think, how you plan to get to fully autonomous? Thanks.

我們該如何看待您的目標？能否請您幫我們進一步了解您過去的目標，大概是五個等級。考慮到五月的事故，我們暫時假設一切順利。如果情況有所改善，那當然會很有幫助。但我只是想更詳細地了解一下，您計劃如何實現完全自動駕駛？謝謝。

Again, major product announcements are not -- you probably shouldn't do those on an earnings call. Obviously. All I can say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. I think what we've got under development is going to blow people's minds. It blows my mind (multiple speakers).

再說一次，重大產品發布並非如此——你或許不應該在財報電話會議上發布這些。顯然如此。我只能說，完全自動駕駛的到來將比任何人想像的都要快得多。我認為我們正在開發的產品將會讓人們大吃一驚。它讓我大吃一驚（多位發言者）。

Thank you for taking my questions. I appreciate it.

感謝您回答我的問題。我非常感激。

Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的羅德·拉赫 (Rod Lache)。

Thanks. I had a couple of things. One is just following up on Tesla Energy. Can you talk a little bit about the business pipeline, what's the mix of customers you're selling the product to? And is there a significant contingent of solar? I wasn't clear on, there was an earlier question on whether the business is still tracking to around $500 million this year. Could you just elaborate on that business line?

謝謝。我有幾個問題。一是跟進特斯拉能源的情況。您能否談談業務線，您產品的客戶組成是怎樣的？太陽能業務佔比大嗎？我之前有個問題，問的是今年特斯拉能源的業務規模是否能達到5億美元左右。您能否詳細談談這條業務線？

It's heavily dependent on the production ramp in the last few months of the year. There is definitely nothing even remotely close to demand constraints on the Tesla Energy side. It's entirely getting the engineering done, getting it validated, getting UL certification, scaling up all elements of the supply chain and being able to produce in volume.

這很大程度取決於每年最後幾個月的產量提升。特斯拉在能源方面絕對不存在任何與需求限制相關的問題。關鍵在於完成工程設計、驗證、取得UL認證、擴大供應鏈所有環節的規模，以及實現量產。

So the reason it's tricky to predict is because the volume ramp looks like an exponential. And so if you move the dates around even a little bit, it can quite significantly change what occurs in a quarter just because if the production ramp is an exponential and shifts out a couple weeks, it can make the quarter look low, but actually, it's in vertical climb mode. So the following quarter will look amazing.

預測之所以困難，是因為產量成長看起來像是指數級的。所以，即使日期稍微變動一下，也可能對某個季度的情況產生很大影響。因為如果產量成長呈指數級，且時間往後推了幾週，這個季度的產量看起來會很低，但實際上，它處於垂直攀升模式。所以下一季的產量會非常驚人。

What I'm highly confident of is that the next generation of stationary storage is head and shoulders above anything else that I've even heard announced as future plans from other companies.

我非常有信心的是，下一代固定儲存將遠遠優於我所聽到的其他公司所宣布的未來計劃。

Okay.

好的。

So we've just going to build those damn things.

所以我們就去建造那些該死的東西。

The customers that you're anticipating, are there significant renewables in there? Is it commercial, residential, what are you sort of seeing --?

您預期的客戶中，再生能源佔比大嗎？是商業用戶，還是住宅用戶？您認為會是哪一種情況？

Everything. All of the above.

一切。以上所有。

Okay.

好的。

We've just got to, we've got to scale up production. Production is a hard thing. It's real hard. Particularly when it's new technology. If it's some standard technology that's been there for a long time, it's fine. If it's cutting edge technology, it's really hard to scale up production because you've got to design the machine that makes the machine. Not just the machine itself.

我們必須，我們必須擴大生產規模。生產是一件很難的事。真的很難。尤其是當它涉及新技術時。如果是一些已經存在很久的標準技術，那就沒問題。但如果是尖端技術，要擴大生產規模就非常困難，因為你必須設計製造機器的機器，而不僅僅是機器本身。

But the result is going to be amazing. This is, like I said, it's going to be head and shoulders above anything else that -- it's better than anything I've heard anyone even announce that they will do in the future. And we will do it in the present.

但結果一定會令人驚嘆。就像我說的，這將遠遠超越任何其他事情——甚至比我聽到的任何人宣布的未來計劃都要好。我們現在就要做這件事。

Thanks. And on the topic of production, you have said some really interesting things about step function changes in automotive manufacturing and improving the volumetric efficiency.

謝謝。關於生產，您談到了一些非常有趣的事情，例如汽車製造的階躍式變化和容積效率的提高。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

Typically, as I'm sure you know, the bottlenecks in auto manufacturing, they're really not in the automated functions like the body shop. They're in things like final trim and assembly that are more labor intensive when you've got people crawling in and out of vehicles. Do you see a significant step function improvement there, like inside out manufacturing or something like that? And is that something that we're going to see on the Model 3?

我相信您也知道，汽車製造業的瓶頸通常不在於車身車間之類的自動化環節，而在於最終的裝飾和組裝環節，這些環節需要更多的勞動力，需要工人爬進爬出車輛。您是否認為這方面會有一個顯著的階躍式改進，例如「由內而外」的製造方式？我們會在 Model 3 上看到這種改進嗎？

The Model 3, I mean, the internal name for the designing machine that makes the machine is the, we call it the alien dreadnought. The point at which the factory looks like an alien dreadnought then you know you've won. It's like, what the hell is that? So alien dreadnought version 0.5, will be Model 3. It will take us another year to get to version 1 and probably a major version every two years thereafter.

我的意思是，Model 3，製造這台機器的設計機器的內部名稱是，我們稱之為「外星無畏艦」。當工廠看起來像外星無畏艦時，你就知道你贏了。這是什麼鬼？所以外星無畏艦的0.5版將會是Model 3。我們還需要一年才能達到1版，之後可能每兩年就會發布一個主要版本。

By version 3, it won't look like anything else. It might look like a giant [trip second place] machine or a super high-speed bottling or canning plant. And you really can't have people in the production line itself. Otherwise you automatically drop to people speed. There's still a lot of people at the factory but what they are doing is maintaining the machines, upgrading them, dealing with anomalies. But in the production process itself, there essentially would be no people, with version 1, not version 0.5.

到了版本3，它看起來就完全不一樣了。它可能看起來像一台巨大的（旅行第二名）機器，或是一個超高速的裝瓶或罐裝工廠。而且生產線本身根本不能有人。否則，速度就會自動降到人的速度。工廠裡仍然有很多人，但他們的工作是維護機器、升級機器，處理異常狀況。但在生產流程本身，基本上沒有人，這是版本1，而不是版本0.5。

So I don't want people to think, oh, Tesla's going to have a factory with no people. There's going to be a huge number of people, but they will be maintaining the machines and upgrading the machines and dealing with anomalies. And the output per person will be extraordinarily high.

所以我不想讓人們覺得，『哦，特斯拉要蓋一個無人工廠』。工廠裡會有大量工人，但他們要負責維護機器、升級機器、處理異常狀況。而且人均產出會非常高。

Sounds like a lot of innovation there. One last housekeeping thing for Elon or Jason. You had previously talked about the objective of profitability in the fourth quarter, but I know a lot's changing with the mix and also with the direct leasing. Is that also something that we should think is being pushed out a quarter?

聽起來有很多創新。最後，我想問 Elon 或 Jason 的後續問題。您之前談到了第四季度盈利的目標，但我知道業務組合和直接租賃都發生了很大變化。這是否也應該被延後一個季度？

If you exclude Model 3 CapEx ramp, then, in fact it really, for Q3 and Q4, Tesla would be profitable excluding the Model 3 CapEx ramp.

如果排除 Model 3 的資本支出成長，那麼事實上，對於第三季和第四季度，特斯拉即使排除 Model 3 的資本支出成長也能獲利。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Pat Archambault, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的帕特·阿查姆博（Pat Archambault）。

Terrific. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess just an accounting question, maybe for Jason. With the residual value guarantee going away, what happens to the accounting for revenues? Do you get to something more close to what we see in other OEM financials and maybe just have the portion that is direct lease be accounted for as leases? And what would be the timing of changes assuming they do happen?

太好了。感謝您回答我的問題。我想這只是一個會計問題，也許可以問傑森。隨著殘值擔保的取消，收入的會計處理會如何？您是否會採取更接近我們在其他汽車製造商財務報表中看到的做法，或許會將直接租賃的部分記為租賃？假設這些變化確實發生，時間會是什麼時候？

Absolutely. The answer the timing of change is right away. A car that is sold without with an R -- So, with a RVG, that drops us into lease accounting. And what we have done historically and will continue to do for RVGs is we recognize the full revenue on a non-GAAP basis. What changes when there's an RVG in the equation is you get full revenue recognition on a GAAP basis as well as a non-GAAP basis. So good things happen on the accounting side.

當然。答案是，改變的時機是立即。一輛沒有R標識的汽車出售——因此，有了RVG，我們就需要進行租賃會計了。我們過去的做法是，並將繼續為RVG採用非公認會計準則（Non-GAAP）確認全部收入。當RVG納入計算公式時，變動在於，我們不僅可以在GAAP基礎上確認全部收入，還可以在非GAAP基礎上確認全部收入。所以，在會計方面，情況會好轉。

And then this is something that, within the next quarter or something, we'll already see a significant reduction in that adjustment, obviously.

然後，在下個季度左右，我們顯然會看到這種調整的顯著減少。

You will see that. But the other thing I want to point you to is what we've talked about in, probably in uptake in direct leasing. When we have used a partner in the past for leasing. That gives us non-GAAP revenue recognition on that.

你們會看到這一點。但我想指出的另一件事是我們之前討論過的，可能是直接租賃的採用率。當我們過去曾與合作夥伴進行租賃時，這讓我們獲得了非公認會計準則的收入確認。

Our non-GAAP revenue recognition is very simple. We follow the cash. If somebody pays us cash for a car, we recognize it in non-GAAP revenue. When we do direct leasing then that drops us into pure lease accounting. So it'll be that way on a GAAP and a non-GAAP basis.

我們的非公認會計準則收入確認非常簡單。我們遵循現金原則。如果有人用現金購買汽車，我們會將其計入非公認會計準則收入。如果我們進行直接租賃，則需要進行純粹的租賃會計。因此，無論採用公認會計準則或非公認會計準則，情況都是如此。

And is the 8 to 15, is that just kind of a temporary measure while you're setting up these new partner relationships or do you actually expect to stay at 15 for some time?

那麼，8 到 15 這個數字是否只是你們在建立新合作關係時採取的一種臨時措施，還是你們實際上希望在一段時間內保持 15 這個數字？

So 15 is what we are talking about for Q3 and I think I mentioned earlier, we've got a bunch of active conversations with new partners. There is another factor too, which is I think important to point out. We have introduced some pretty compelling loan programs, particularly in North America, in the last 90 days, and we're starting to see some shift from leasing towards loans. And to bring the answer to your question full circle, loan is full GAAP and full non-GAAP revenue recognition.

所以，我們討論的第三季收入是15，我記得我之前提到過，我們與許多新合作夥伴進行了積極的溝通。還有一個因素，我認為值得指出。在過去90天裡，我們推出了一些非常有吸引力的貸款項目，尤其是在北美，我們開始看到一些業務從租賃轉向貸款。為了更完整回答你的問題，貸款收入確認完全按照GAAP，完全按照非GAAP確認。

Got it. That's helpful. And I think it will be helpful for just the users of financial statements as well. The ZEV credits, you mentioned that they weren't material. I feel like it has been written that there was kind of a glut of supply on those. And I don't know. Is that just the lumpiness of it or is that sort of a revenue (multiple speakers)?

明白了。這很有幫助。我認為這對財務報表的使用者也會有幫助。您提到零排放汽車積分（ZEV credits）並不重要。我覺得好像有人寫過，這些積分供應過剩。我不知道。這只是個例，還是也算是一種收入？ （多位發言者）

Actually, if I could say something and I really want to emphasize this quite strongly and I hope it does get picked up in the media, is that the, is the California Air Resources Board is being incredibly weak in its application of ZEV credits. The standards are pathetically low. They need to be increased.

事實上，如果我要說些什麼，而且我真的很想強調這一點，並且希望媒體能夠注意到，那就是加州空氣資源委員會在零排放汽車積分的申請方面做得非常薄弱。標準低得可憐。需要提高。

There is massive lobbying by the big car companies to prevent CARB from increasing the ZEV credit mandate, which they absolutely damn well should. It's a crying shame that they haven't. As a result, you can barely sell a ZEV credit for pennies on the dollar.

大型汽車公司正在大力遊說，阻止加州空氣資源委員會（CARB）提高零排放汽車積分要求，而他們絕對應該這麼做。可惜的是，他們竟然沒有這麼做。結果，零排放汽車積分幾乎賣不出多少錢。

Got it. Okay.

明白了。好的。

CARB should damn well be ashamed of themselves.

CARB 應該為自己感到羞恥。

All right. I think that answers my question pretty directly then. The last one, just one housekeeping one. Any chance, and sorry if I missed it, X production for the quarter, are you able to share that?

好的。我想這直接回答了我的問題。最後一個問題，只是一個常規問題。如果我沒提到，抱歉，您能分享一下本季的X產量嗎？

We haven't [broad term]. No.

我們沒有[廣義]。沒有。

Okay. I think that was a no. But, fair enough. Those were my questions. I will let someone else get in. Thank you.

好的。我想答案是「否」。不過，也算公平。這些都是我的問題。我會讓其他人來。謝謝。

Brad Erickson, Pacific Crest Securities.

太平洋頂峰證券公司的布拉德·埃里克森。

Hello. Thanks for taking the question. I just had a quick follow-up on something that's been asked a couple of times, take another run at it. Given that you're obviously no longer working with this key supplier around full autonomy, what are the major hurdles that you see for Tesla here to overcome to get to full autonomy?

您好。感謝您回答這個問題。我只是想快速跟進一下之前問過幾次的問題，請再問一次。鑑於您顯然已經不再與這家關鍵供應商就完全自動駕駛汽車進行合作，您認為特斯拉在實現完全自動駕駛汽車方面需要克服的主要障礙是什麼？

Is it just a case of software development, lots more miles driven, and basically getting the right people in place? Any color on sort of some of the key challenges you're facing or where you're particularly focused for delivering full autonomy at some point? Thanks.

這只是軟體開發、更多里程的測試以及找到合適的人才的問題嗎？能否具體談談您面臨的一些關鍵挑戰，或者您在實現完全自動駕駛方面特別關注哪些方面？謝謝。

Full autonomy is really a software limitation. The hardware exists to create full autonomy. It's really about developing advanced narrow AI for the car to operate on. And I want to emphasize narrow AI is like not going to take over the world. But it needs to be really good at driving a car.

完全自動駕駛實際上是軟體的限制。硬體的存在是為了實現完全自動駕駛。這實際上是為了開發先進的弱人工智慧，供汽車運行。我想強調的是，弱人工智慧不會統治世界。但它需要非常擅長駕駛汽車。

So, increasingly sophisticated [neuro] maps that can operate in reasonably sized computers in the car. That's our focus. I'm very optimistic about this. Like I said, I think it's really going to -- it blows me away, the progress we're making. So I think, if I'm this close to it and it's blowing me away, it's really going to blow other people away when they see it for the first time.

所以，我們的目標是建立越來越複雜的神經地圖，使其能夠在車內尺寸適中的電腦上運作。這就是我們的重點。我對此非常樂觀。就像我說的，我認為我們所取得的進展真的會讓我驚嘆不已。所以，我認為，如果我距離目標如此之近，並且它讓我驚嘆不已，那麼當其他人第一次看到它時，他們也會同樣驚嘆不已。

All right, Latif, I guess we will go to the next question.

好的，拉蒂夫，我想我們將進入下一個問題。

Ben Kallo, Robert W. Baird.

本·卡洛、羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

Mr. Kallo, your line is open. Please make sure it isn't muted.

卡洛先生，您的線路已接通。請確保線路未靜音。

All right. I think we'll just take a few more questions. So let's maybe do this and one or two more and call it a day.

好的。我想我們再回答幾個問題就行了。我們先回答這個問題，再問一兩個問題，然後就到此為止了。

Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA.

里昂證券的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Hello, everybody. I wanted to ask just couple of questions on the update to the master plan. The first one is on the sharing piece. Definitely very exciting goal. At the same time, sir, I feel like a lot of automakers as well as municipalities are all working on their version of sort of ride sharing through autonomous, I guess, driverless cars.

大家好。我想就總體規劃的更新問幾個問題。第一個問題是關於共享出行的部分。這絕對是個令人興奮的目標。同時，先生，我覺得很多汽車製造商和市政當局都在透過自動駕駛汽車，也就是無人駕駛汽車，來開發各自的共享出行方案。

And to the extent of a lot of sort of what buyers are looking at in Tesla now is the driving experience and that it really doesn't matter as much when you are being driven. What do you view as sort of you are future competitive advantage in a sort of like ride sharing type of environment?

現在很多買家看重特斯拉的駕駛體驗，何時開車其實沒那麼重要。您認為在類似共乘這樣的環境下，特斯拉未來的競爭優勢是什麼？

I think the quality of the ride is always going to matter. And yes, nobody wants to drive if you're sitting in stop and go traffic. That's boring. But if you're driving on a beautiful country road or along the seaside, then I think it feels wonderful to drive. You want to do that. So I don't think cars are going to just become some boring utility.

我認為駕駛體驗的品質始終至關重要。沒錯，如果堵在走走停停的交通中，沒人願意開車。那太無聊了。但如果你在風景優美的鄉村公路或海邊行駛，我覺得駕駛的感覺很棒。你會想要這樣做。所以我認為汽車不會只是成為一種無聊的實用工具。

Got it. And I guess on the piece about expanding the product line out to other major segments. What do you view as your target timing for that? I know there was a mention of some of these cars being sort of like, I guess, at least sort of like available, sort of like to be unveiled next year. So does that mean that we're looking at the following year or is that into the next decade? And what sort of capital needs are we looking at for that?

明白了。關於將產品線擴展到其他主要細分市場，您認為目標時間是什麼時候？我知道之前提到過，有些車型至少是可以上市的，例如明年亮相。那麼，這是否意味著我們正在考慮明年，還是說是下一個十年？為此，我們需要什麼樣的資金支持？

I think we want to postpone anything that is a heavy capital impact until after the Model 3 production is ramped. We do not want to stack Model 3 CapEx on top of other program CapEx. But there is a lot we can do. Because the development of a vehicle -- there is a long tail at the beginning of a development of a vehicle, which involves a lot of time but does not involve a lot of cost. It's only when you began tooling up for production that the cost really ramps dramatically. So there is a lot we can do before we have to dive into a ramp CapEx. We won't do that for any products until after Model 3 is in high production.

我認為，我們希望將所有對資本產生重大影響的項目推遲到 Model 3 量產之後。我們不想將 Model 3 的資本支出疊加在其他項目的資本支出之上。但我們能做的還有很多。因為汽車開發－在汽車開發初期有一個長尾效應，這需要大量時間，但成本並不高。只有當你開始為生產做準備時，成本才會真正大幅上升。所以，在投入量產資本支出之前，我們可以做很多事。在 Model 3 量產之前，我們不會為任何產品進行量產。

I think that's going to be some exciting unveils for the Tesla semi and the Tesla minibus or bus. We haven't actually, don't actually have a name for it yet. That's just off of the Model X platform. It does not involve a lot of CapEx, actually. We expect to probably unveil those, I think, before the middle of next year, maybe in the next six to nine months type of thing. And then have a better, a more fleshed out plan for when those would enter production. But if they went into production within low single digit years, not, I mean, I consider anything past five years as infinity.

我認為特斯拉半掛卡車和特斯拉小型巴士或巴士的發布會激動人心。我們實際上還沒有給它們起名字。它們只是基於Model X平台。實際上，它不需要太多的資本支出。我們預計可能會在明年年中之前，也就是未來六到九個月內發布這些車型。然後我們會制定一個更好、更完善的計劃，確定它們何時投產。但如果它們在幾年內就能投產，我的意思是，我認為五年後就不算是無限期了。

All right. That's very helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。

Also to be clear, the priority vehicle development after the Model 3 would be the Model Y, I guess, the compact SUV. Because that is also a car where we'd expect to see demand in the 500,000 to 1 million unit per year level. It is the obvious priority after the Model 3.

另外要明確的是，Model 3 之後的優先車型開發應該是 Model Y，也就是緊湊型 SUV。因為我們預計這款車的年需求量也會在 50 萬到 100 萬輛之間。這顯然是 Model 3 之後的優先發展方向。

Great. Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

All right, Latif. I think there's one more. Let's have that one and then wrap it up.

好的，拉蒂夫。我想還有一個問題。我們先討論完這個問題，然後再結束。

Yes, sir. Tyler Frank, Robert Baird.

是的，先生。泰勒·弗蘭克，羅伯特·貝爾德。

Thanks for taking the question. Two short questions. One, can you discuss when you expect to be profitable on a non-GAAP basis? And then number two, you had mentioned on the last call that the Gigafactory may actually have the ability to produce about three times of your original estimate. Will that entail significant CapEx in the future or are you preparing that foundation right now to reach over 100 gigawatt hours? Thank you.

感謝您的提問。我有兩個簡短的問題。第一，您能否談談您預計何時在非公認會計準則下獲利？第二，您在上次電話會議上提到，超級工廠的實際產能可能是您最初預估的三倍左右。這是否意味著未來需要大量的資本支出，還是您目前正在為實現超過100千兆瓦時的生產目標做準備？謝謝。

Yes, sure. On the profitability question, just reiterate what Elon said earlier. If we can execute on our production and our delivery both in the second half of the year, we got a great chance to non-GAAP profitable.

是的，當然。關於獲利能力的問題，我重申馬斯克之前說的話。如果我們能在下半年完成生產和交付，我們就有很大機會實現非公認會計準則獲利。

Yes, excluding Model 3 CapEx. The real question on profitability is where do we set the dial on growth? And obviously, if you set the dial on growth to be super high, then you face dilution because of the increased capital. If you set it too low, there's less dilution, but then you grow slower. So you want to set it at kind of the right level where you're the right mix of dilution and growth.

是的，不包括Model 3的資本支出。獲利能力的真正問題是，我們該如何設定成長目標？顯然，如果你把成長目標設定得非常高，那麼由於資本增加，你就會面臨股權稀釋。如果你把成長目標設定得太低，股權稀釋會減少，但成長也會變慢。所以，你需要把它設定在一個合適的水平，實現股權稀釋和成長的合理平衡。

As it is, it's just important to bear in mind, as a manufacturing company, our percentage growth -- I think it is unprecedented in the modern era. It is really nutty. In 2010, we were making 600 cars a year. And Lotus was doing the chassis, body and chassis. And then five years later, we were making 50,000. And it was a much more sophisticated, call it, the Model S and we were doing the whole car without any partner.

事實上，重要的是要記住，作為一家製造公司，我們的成長率——我認為這在當今時代是前所未有的。這真的令人難以置信。 2010年，我們每年生產600輛汽車。蓮花汽車負責底盤、車身和底盤。五年後，我們生產了5萬輛。這是一款更複雜的車型，我們稱之為Model S，而我們自己則在沒有任何合作夥伴的情況下完成了整車的生產。

So when you have insane percentage growth like that in a manufacturing company, it's not like you're shipping copies of software here. It's a real tricky strategic decision as to where do you set things from a dilution versus growth standpoint? The right way to look at the product line, the Company's, look at say the product lines and value them as, so do an MPV of the product lines. And then for any given product line, you can say okay, okay, this is what that is likely to be worth. The S, the X, the 3, and then you can parse it out relative to the CapEx on new vehicles. And to the degree that the past predicts the future, then you can pretty much count on the new vehicle program also being incredibly valuable. And something where it would be mad not to spend the money to do it.

所以，當一家製造公司實現如此驚人的百分比成長時，你可不是在兜售軟體拷貝。從稀釋還是成長的角度來看，這是一個非常棘手的策略決策。正確的做法是審視產品線，審視公司，審視產品線，並對其進行估值，就像評估產品線的MPV一樣。然後，對於任何一條產品線，你可以說，好吧，這就是它可能的價值。 S、X、3，然後你可以依照新車的資本支出來分析。從過去預測未來的程度來看，你幾乎可以肯定，新車專案也同樣具有極高的價值。如果不花錢去做，那才是瘋狂的。

When all of that is lumped together, can be confusing, and they will think Tesla is a money-losing company, but well, not really. Not if you're growing at 100% a year or, the case for next year, I mean, unit volume, we'll probably exit next year at unit volume that's 200% or 300% what our current volume is, maybe 400%. So it's just real important to parse things out. And to understand what the real health of the business is. Right now, in a nutshell, we are shipping $10 billion a year of product on an annualized basis at somewhere around 23% to 25% gross margin.

所有這些因素放在一起，可能會讓人感到困惑，他們會認為特斯拉是一家虧損的公司，但事實並非如此。如果特斯拉的年增率達到100%，或像明年的情況一樣，我們明年的產量可能會達到目前的200%、300%，甚至400%。所以，分析清楚這些因素非常重要，了解公司真正的健康狀況也很重要。目前，我們每年的產品出貨量為100億美元，毛利率約23%到25%。

Right.

正確的。

And just quickly to your Gigafactory question, this is JB. A lot of the improvements that we have made are actually increasing the density of the Gigafactory and the density of how much equipment and the existing footprint. In that case, there is a lot of investments we have already made preparing the site, some of the infrastructure for the site that we would get to continue leveraging as we grow capacity even higher than our original plan.

我是JB，簡單回答一下您關於超級工廠的問題。我們所做的許多改進實際上都在提高超級工廠的密度、設備的密度以及現有佔地面積。在這種情況下，我們已經在場地準備方面投入了大量資金，一些場地基礎設施我們將繼續利用，以便我們的產能能夠比原計劃更高。

There would be some other investments, of course, in equipment and things like that. It would be incremental tied to that much higher volume, but those would also be enabling vehicle volumes and energy product volumes way beyond what we had initially predicted.

當然，還會有一些其他投資，像是設備投資等等。這些投資將隨著產量大幅提升而逐步增加，但這些投資也將使汽車和能源產品的產量遠遠超出我們最初的預期。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right, guys, we are at the hour mark. Should we call it a day?

好了，夥計們，時間已經到了一小時了。今天就到此為止吧？

Yes, let's do it. Thanks a lot, everybody, for joining us. And we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Bye bye.

是的，我們開始吧。非常感謝大家的參與。我們期待下個季度與大家交流。再見。

All right, thanks, everyone. Bye.

好的，謝謝大家。再見。

That does conclude your program. Thank you for your participation and have wonderful day. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

您的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。現在您可以斷開連線了。