特斯拉 (TSLA) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors first quarter 2016 financial results Q&A conference call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉汽車公司 2016 年第一季度財務業績問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder this conference is being recorded.

作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Mr. Evanson, you may begin.

我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人 Jeff Evanson 先生。埃文森先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherrie, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's first quarter 2016 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla Chairman and CEO; JB Straubel, our CTO; CFO Jason Wheeler; and Jon McNeill, President of Global Sales, Service, and Delivery.

謝謝你，雪莉，大家下午好。歡迎收聽特斯拉 2016 年第一季度問答網絡直播。今天，特斯拉董事長兼首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 加入了我的行列； JB Straubel，我們的首席技術官；首席財務官傑森·惠勒；以及全球銷售、服務和交付總裁 Jon McNeill。

Our Q1 results are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast. As this usual this letter includes GAAP and non-GAAP financial information, and reconciliations between the two.

我們的第一季度業績在與本次網絡廣播相同的鏈接的更新信中公佈。像往常一樣，這封信包括 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務信息，以及兩者之間的對賬。

During our call we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recently filed Form 10-K, now at the SEC website.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近提交的表格 10-K 中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異，現在在 SEC 網站上。

We're going to start today's call with some comments by Elon, followed by the question and answer period, and during the Q&A time, please try and limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up so we can give everyone a chance to ask a question. So while Elon is making his remarks, if you haven't done so please press star one now to get into the queue to ask a question.

我們將從 Elon 的一些評論開始今天的電話會議，然後是問答時間，在問答時間，請盡量限制自己一個問題和一個跟進，以便我們給每個人一個提問的機會一個問題。因此，當 Elon 發表講話時，如果您還沒有這樣做，請現在按星號進入隊列提問。

Elon, I'll turn it over to you.

埃隆，我會把它交給你的。

Thank you. I think the most important point here that we want to make is that we're advancing the Model 3 build plan substantially, and just the overall volume plan, with Tesla aiming to get to the half million unit per year run rate in 2018 instead of 2020. And this is based off the tremendous demand received for the Model 3 which I think is actually a fraction of the ultimate demand, when people fully understand what the car's capable of and are able to do a test drive. So this is probably the biggest change strategically.

謝謝你。我認為我們想要提出的最重要的一點是，我們正在大幅推進 Model 3 的建造計劃，而只是整體量計劃，特斯拉的目標是在 2018 年達到每年 50 萬輛的運行速度，而不是2020 年。這是基於對 Model 3 的巨大需求，我認為這實際上只是最終需求的一小部分，因為人們完全了解汽車的能力並能夠進行試駕。所以這可能是戰略上最大的變化。

Also, Tesla is going to be hell-bent on becoming the best manufacturer on earth. Thus far, I think we've done a good job on design and technology of our products. The Model S and X are generally regarded by critical judges as technologically the most advanced cars in the world. We've done well in that respect.

此外，特斯拉將一心想成為地球上最好的製造商。到目前為止，我認為我們在產品的設計和技術方面做得很好。 Model S 和 X 被批評家們普遍認為是世界上技術最先進的汽車。我們在這方面做得很好。

The key thing we need to achieve in the future is to also be the leader in manufacturing. We take manufacturing very seriously at Tesla. It's the thing we need to obviously solve if we are going to scale and scale rapidly and make the cars more affordable. I really want to send the message out there to the best manufacturing people in the world, we want you to come join our company.

我們未來需要實現的關鍵是成為製造業的領導者。在特斯拉，我們非常重視製造。如果我們要迅速擴大規模並讓汽車更實惠，這顯然是我們需要解決的問題。我真的很想向世界上最優秀的製造人員傳達信息，我們希望你能加入我們公司。

And that is going to be the primary focus of Tesla, how do we get super good at making large complex objects? That's the most salient point. It's either get wrapped up in a bunch of short-term issues, but I think in terms of what matters in the future, I think that's the most significant thing.

這將是特斯拉的主要關注點，我們如何才能超級擅長製造大型複雜物體？這是最突出的一點。它要么陷入一堆短期問題，但我認為就未來重要的事情而言，我認為這是最重要的事情。

Overall on the short-term stuff, our quarter over quarter stuff I think has improved quite significantly. Obviously Model X production increased by a factor of five from Q4 to Q1, and we continue to make huge strides in volume and quality of the vehicle, and I'm personally spending an enormous amount of time on the production line. My desk is at the end of the production line. I have a sleeping bag in a conference room adjacent to the production line which I use quite frequently. The whole team is super focused on achieving rate and quality at the target cost. I feel very confident in us achieving that goal. With the increase in ramp, we do feel comfortable affirming the 80,000 to 90,000 deliveries this year. The rate of improvement with each passing day is very significant.

總體而言，就短期而言，我認為我們的季度環比有所改善。顯然，從第四季度到第一季度，Model X 的產量增加了五倍，我們繼續在車輛的數量和質量方面取得巨大進步，我個人在生產線上花費了大量時間。我的辦公桌在生產線的末端。我在靠近生產線的會議室裡有一個睡袋，我經常使用它。整個團隊都非常專注於以目標成本實現速度和質量。我對我們實現這一目標充滿信心。隨著坡道的增加，我們確實可以放心地確認今年的 80,000 至 90,000 次交付。日新月異的進步速度非常顯著。

Finally, I'd like to thank Greg Reichow who was our head of production for tremendous contribution over the last five years. Contrary to media reports, Greg is still at Tesla, he's still with the company, and he's helping with the transition to some new leadership. We have some I think exciting announcements coming in possibly the next few weeks, in addition to the Tesla management team on the production side. I feel really, really excited about where things are headed in that direction.

最後，我要感謝 Greg Reichow，他是我們的製作主管，在過去五年中做出的巨大貢獻。與媒體報導相反，格雷格仍在特斯拉，他仍在公司工作，他正在幫助過渡到一些新的領導層。除了生產方面的特斯拉管理團隊之外，我們可能會在接下來的幾週內發布一些我認為令人興奮的公告。我對事情朝著這個方向發展的方向感到非常非常興奮。

With that, let's go to questions.

有了這個，讓我們去提問。

James Albertine, Stifel.

詹姆斯·阿爾貝蒂娜，Stifel。

Great, thank you so much. Elon, thank you for that introduction. There's no doubt you have an incredible undertaking in front of you. Can you help us understand some of the key obstacles and how we should consider those obstacles between now and your anticipated launch of the Model 3 in late 2017? Whether it's a P&L adjustment that we need to make along the way, but can you help us choreograph how that's going to take place?

太好了，非常感謝。 Elon，謝謝你的介紹。毫無疑問，您面前有一項令人難以置信的事業。您能否幫助我們了解一些關鍵障礙，以及從現在到您預計在 2017 年底推出 Model 3 之間我們應該如何考慮這些障礙？無論是我們需要在此過程中進行的損益調整，但您能幫助我們安排如何進行嗎？

Sure. With the Model 3 as I mentioned on the last earnings call, we're really trying to take a lot of lessons learned from Model X. Where Model X, we put a lot of bells and whistles on Model X and a lot of advanced technologies that weren't necessary for version one of the vehicle. With Model 3 we're being incredibly rigorous about ensuring that we don't have anything that isn't really necessary to make a very compelling version one of the car.

當然。正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的那樣，對於 Model 3，我們真的在嘗試從 Model X 中吸取很多教訓。在 Model X 上，我們在 Model X 和許多先進技術上做了很多花里胡哨這對於第一版車輛來說不是必需的。對於 Model 3，我們非常嚴格地確保我們沒有任何不必要的東西來製造一款非常引人注目的汽車版本。

We also have a much tighter feedback loop between design engineering, manufacturing engineering, and production and so a new element of Model 3 can't be approved unless manufacturing has said that this is easy to manufacture and that the risk associated with manufacturing is low. There are many ways to skin a cat, and it's remarkable how you can achieve the same objective with a hugely varying degree of difficulty. You can take an analogy and say, if you wanted to kill a fly, you can kill a fly with a thermonuclear weapon, with a MOAB, with a cruise missile, with a machine gun, or a flyswatter. The end result is the same, but the difficulty is considerably more significant from one to the other, and the collateral damage is considerably more significant.

我們在設計工程、製造工程和生產之間也有更緊密的反饋循環，因此 Model 3 的新元素無法獲得批准，除非製造部門表示這很容易製造並且與製造相關的風險很低。給貓剝皮的方法有很多種，你可以在不同程度的難度下實現相同的目標，這是非常了不起的。你可以打個比方，如果你想殺死一隻蒼蠅，你可以用熱核武器、MOAB、巡航導彈、機關槍或蒼蠅拍殺死一隻蒼蠅。最終的結果是一樣的，但是從一個到另一個的難度要大得多，附帶的損害要大得多。

So having production be really fundamental to the design of the Model 3 I think is very important, and then making sure we're not adding extraneous features to the 3, that are unnecessary to achieve the production volume, is also extremely important. At the risk of this being misinterpreted, and probably there will be some (inaudible) articles that do, I think it is worth explaining how manufacturing a complex object with several thousand unique components actually works, and what dates are relevant. In order to achieve volume production of a car, a new car with several thousand unique items, you actually have to set a target date internally and with suppliers that is quite aggressive and that is the date that has to be taken seriously.

因此，讓生產成為 Model 3 設計的基礎，我認為非常重要，然後確保我們不會在 3 中添加無關緊要的功能，這些對於實現量產來說是不必要的，也非常重要。冒著被誤解的風險，並且可能會有一些（聽不清的）文章這樣做，我認為值得解釋製造具有數千個獨特組件的複雜對象實際上是如何工作的，以及哪些日期是相關的。為了實現汽車的量產，一輛擁有數千件獨特物品的新車，您實際上必須在內部和供應商設定一個目標日期，該日期非常激進，這是必須認真對待的日期。

The date, I'm sure this will leak, it's hard to keep a secret really, the date we are setting with suppliers to get to volume production capability with the Model 3 is July 1 next year. Now, will we actually be able to achieve volume production on July 1 next year? Of course not. The reason is that even if 99% of the internally produced items and supplier items are available on July 1, we still cannot produce the car because you cannot produce a car that is missing 1% of its components.

日期，我相信這會洩露，真的很難保密，我們與供應商確定的日期是明年 7 月 1 日，以實現 Model 3 的量產能力。現在，我們真的能在明年 7 月 1 日實現量產嗎？當然不是。原因是，即使 99% 的內部生產項目和供應商項目在 7 月 1 日可用，我們仍然無法生產汽車，因為您無法生產缺少 1% 零部件的汽車。

Nonetheless, we need to, both internally and with suppliers, take that date seriously, and there need to be some penalties for anyone, internally or externally, who does not meet that timeframe. This has to be the case because there's just no way that you have several thousand components, all of whom make it on a particular date. The reality is that the volume production will then be some number of months later, as we solve the supply chain and internal production issues.

儘管如此，我們需要在內部和與供應商一起認真對待這個日期，並且需要對任何不符合該時間表的內部或外部人員進行處罰。必須如此，因為您不可能擁有數千個組件，所有組件都在特定日期完成。現實情況是，隨著我們解決供應鍊和內部生產問題，批量生產將在幾個月後進行。

But it is a bit of a confusing thing, and it does create some churn because people are like, well what's the real date? You have to take the July 1 date seriously in order for some date a few months later or several months later to actually be the real date. That's actually how it has to work.

但這有點令人困惑，而且確實會造成一些混亂，因為人們會說，真正的約會是什麼時候？您必須認真對待 7 月 1 日的日期，以便幾個月後或幾個月後的某個日期成為真正的日期。這實際上就是它的工作方式。

So in order for us to be confident of achieving volume production of Model 3 by late 2017, we actually have to set a date of mid-2017 and really hold people's feet to the fire internally and externally to achieve an actual volume production date of late 2017. So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That's my expectation right now.

所以為了讓我們有信心在 2017 年底實現 Model 3 的量產，實際上我們必須將日期定在 2017 年年中，真正做到內外兼修，才能真正實現遲到的量產日期。 2017. 所以粗略的猜測，我會說我們的目標是在明年下半年生產 100,000 到 200,000 輛 Model 3。這是我現在的期望。

What I would say to anyone that is thinking about ordering a Model 3, now is a good time to actually place your reservation or place your order, because you don't have to worry about placing your order and receiving it five years from now. If you place your order now there's a high probability you will actually receive your car in 2018. So I'd really recommend that anyone who wants to receive their car in 2018 place their order very soon.

我想對正在考慮訂購 Model 3 的任何人說的話，現在是實際下訂單或下訂單的好時機，因為您不必擔心下訂單並在五年後收到訂單。如果您現在下訂單，那麼您很有可能會在 2018 年真正收到您的汽車。所以我真的建議任何想在 2018 年收到汽車的人盡快下訂單。

Elon, thank you. And if I may as a follow-up, can you give us some reference as to, again, most generously you would think if you said the end fourth quarter, or sorry, you said fourth quarter of 2017, so the six months, at its most generous calculation, how does that compare with the volume production agreed date for the Model X, just as an example? And then how does this flow with your cash needs? As you've articulated, it seems you've walked back a little bit from the prior quarter's discussion around cash flow positive and no need for capital markets raise. It seems like there may be a need here, if you could just articulate how the two fit together, that'd be helpful. Thanks.

伊隆，謝謝。如果我可以作為後續行動，您能否再一次給我們一些參考，如果您說的是第四季度末，或者對不起，您說的是 2017 年第四季度，那麼六個月，在其最慷慨的計算，與 Model X 的量產約定日期相比如何，僅作為示例？然後，這將如何滿足您的現金需求？正如您所表達的那樣，您似乎已經從上一季度關於現金流為正且不需要資本市場籌集的討論中退後了一點。似乎這裡可能需要，如果您能闡明兩者如何結合在一起，那將很有幫助。謝謝。

It's always tempting for people to reason by analogy instead of first principles and that would be the mistake of assuming that anything to do with the X production has bearing on the Model 3. They are very different programs with completely different approaches. So I would not try to extrapolate from that, any more than it would've made sense to extrapolate from the Roadster when we were making 600 cars a year, to 20,000 cars a year with the Model S.

人們總是傾向於通過類比而不是第一原理進行推理，如果假設與 X 生產有關的任何事情都對 Model 3 產生影響，那就是錯誤的。它們是非常不同的程序，採用完全不同的方法。所以我不會試圖從中推斷，就像從我們每年生產 600 輛汽車時的 Roadster 推斷到使用 Model S 每年生產 20,000 輛汽車一樣有意義。

So in the roadster case we went from making 600 cars a year in 2010, where Lotus made the body and chassis, we made the powertrain, and we did final assembly, it was a far simpler car than the Model S. We told people we're going to get to a run rate of 20,000 cars a year with the Model S, despite it being a vastly more complicated car and a car where we made the whole car, not just the powertrain. If you were to extrapolate from the Roadster experience, you would be completely wrong about the Model S outcome, and many people were, that's why I would say X is not relevant.

因此，在跑車案例中，我們從 2010 年的年產 600 輛汽車開始，蓮花製造車身和底盤，我們製造動力系統，然後進行總裝，它比 Model S 簡單得多。我們告訴人們我們'Model S 的年產量將達到 20,000 輛，儘管它是一款複雜得多的汽車，而且我們製造了整輛車，而不僅僅是動力系統。如果你從 Roadster 的經驗中推斷，你對 Model S 的結果是完全錯誤的，很多人都是這樣，這就是為什麼我會說 X 不相關。

As far as the increased capital rates, well obviously if you double your planned volume, you can't expect the capital to stay the same. I think our capital efficiency will actually improve on a per car basis, but obviously it can't stay the same.

至於增加的資本利率，很明顯，如果你將計劃數量翻倍，你就不能指望資本保持不變。我認為我們的資本效率實際上會在每輛汽車的基礎上提高，但顯然不能保持不變。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Colin Lincoln, UBS.

科林林肯，瑞銀。

Thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow-up, you've had issues with the [act], there's management changes. What gives you the confidence that the 500,000, that's a pretty amazing jump into next year, what gives that conviction that that's going to be possible by 2020?

感謝您提出我的問題。只是為了跟進，你對[法案]有問題，有管理層變動。是什麼讓你有信心 500,000，這是一個非常驚人的跳躍到明年，是什麼讓你相信到 2020 年這將成為可能？

You mean by 2018.

你的意思是2018年。

Yes, 2018, yes.

是的，2018 年，是的。

First of all, I think we've got an excellent team at Tesla in production, and we're adding world-class [aces] in production with each passing week. It is a huge advantage to have, it's fair to say it's probably the most compelling product program in the world with the Model 3. I'm not sure what would be more compelling, I think there's a good argument that Model 3 is the most compelling program on earth from a manufacturing standpoint.

首先，我認為我們在特斯拉擁有一支優秀的生產團隊，而且我們每週都在增加世界級的生產能力。擁有它是一個巨大的優勢，可以公平地說，它可能是 Model 3 世界上最引人注目的產品計劃。我不確定什麼會更引人注目，我認為有一個很好的論點，即 Model 3 是最引人注目的從製造的角度來看，這是地球上引人注目的計劃。

So our ability to recruit top manufacturing talent to the most compelling product on earth is very strong, we find the response to be extremely good when we call people up. So based on the rate at which we're adding world-class manufacturing expertise, and some of the things that I know we're going to announce in the future, I feel highly confident the Model 3 is going to be well executed as a program.

因此，我們為地球上最引人注目的產品招募頂級製造人才的能力非常強大，當我們召集人們時，我們發現反應非常好。因此，基於我們增加世界級製造專業知識的速度，以及我知道我們將在未來宣布的一些事情，我非常有信心 Model 3 將作為一款程序。

Yes, that's it. You want to add something, JB?

對，就是那樣。你想補充點什麼，JB？

Yes, if I might just add, you mentioned this briefly before, but the design of the vehicle lends itself to high-volume production very efficiently. And I think that's --

是的，如果我可以補充一下，您之前曾簡要提到過這一點，但車輛的設計非常有效地適合大批量生產。我認為那是——

-- designed for manufacturing.

——專為製造而設計。

Absolutely. And that's something we're doing even today. Those designs are firming up, so this is something happening far, far ahead of time. And the second point would be the quality and the motivation of the suppliers involved in the program --

絕對地。即使在今天，這也是我們正在做的事情。這些設計正在鞏固，所以這是遠遠提前發生的事情。第二點是參與該計劃的供應商的質量和動機——

Yes. That's massively increased.

是的。這大大增加了。

Every supplier wants to be in this program.

每個供應商都想加入這個計劃。

Got it. And if I could ask a follow-up, obviously cost is going to be an important factor when 3 launches. I think you've indicated that your battery cost with [Packer] now, under $190 per kilowatt hour. How do you think that compares to the industry, where do you think it'll be by the time the Model 3 is launching?

知道了。如果我可以追問，顯然成本將成為 3 發射時的一個重要因素。我想您已經表明您現在使用 [Packer] 的電池成本低於每千瓦時 190 美元。您認為這與行業相比如何，您認為在 Model 3 推出時會在哪裡？

We're trying to comment on individual component costs, and that's fairly proprietary, it's like giving away our playbook. But I think it's pretty obvious that we will exceed anyone else in the world in scale economies with the Gigafactory, and we're very confident (inaudible) to execute on that front. I just don't know anyone who in terms of intrinsic costs is going to be close to what the Gigafactory can produce on a cost per kilowatt hour basis.

我們正在嘗試對單個組件成本發表評論，這是相當專有的，就像放棄我們的劇本一樣。但我認為很明顯，我們將通過 Gigafactory 在規模經濟方面超越世界上任何其他人，我們非常有信心（聽不清）在這方面執行。我只是不知道有誰在內在成本方面會接近 Gigafactory 在每千瓦時成本基礎上所能生產的東西。

Any color on when we think the 190 how much of a (inaudible) decline and the Gigafactory (technical difficulty) 30% (technical difficulty)?

當我們認為 190 有多少（聽不清）下降和 Gigafactory（技術難度）30%（技術難度）時，有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. Next question.

是的。下一個問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

科林·魯施，奧本海默。

Thanks so much. As you look at this accelerated plan for production, what can we expect on OpEx spending to support all of those cars coming out a lot faster than you previously expected?

非常感謝。當您查看這個加速生產計劃時，我們可以期望運營支出支出以支持所有這些汽車的推出速度比您之前預期的要快得多？

This is Jason. We updated our guidance on OpEx for the year a little bit in the letter. We talked about 20% last year and moving that range to 20% to 25% for 2016. So there's obviously going to need to be more OpEx.

這是傑森。我們在信中稍微更新了本年度的運營支出指南。去年我們談到了 20%，並將 2016 年的範圍擴大到 20% 到 25%。所以顯然需要更多的運營支出。

However, at the same time, you see how we improved quarter over quarter in terms of OpEx. We were down $12 million from Q4, down 3%. So there's a renewed focus in the halls here at Tesla on making sure that we are managing costs extremely effectively, and all of our employees get that and are contributing to that

但是，與此同時，您會看到我們在 OpEx 方面的季度環比有所改善。我們比第四季度減少了 1200 萬美元，下降了 3%。因此，特斯拉的大廳重新關注確保我們非常有效地管理成本，我們所有的員工都明白這一點並為此做出貢獻

Yes. And our operating leverage means fixed cost relative to the variable cost is going to improve dramatically.

是的。我們的運營槓桿意味著相對於可變成本的固定成本將顯著提高。

Yes, absolutely. We talked a little bit about this on the call last quarter. The potential for operating leverage is massive with production scaling.

是的，一點沒錯。我們在上個季度的電話會議上談了一點。隨著生產規模的擴大，經營槓桿的潛力是巨大的。

Great. And then Elon, what do you need to see to move your desk out of the factory, it's a dramatic thing to talk about having your factory and your sleeping bag there. So obviously there were some things you were concerned about. But what are you going to want to see to go back to a different location?

偉大的。然後埃隆，你需要看到什麼才能把你的辦公桌搬出工廠，談論把你的工廠和你的睡袋放在那裡是一件戲劇性的事情。所以很明顯，有些事情是你擔心的。但是你想看什麼才能回到不同的地方呢？

My desk has frequently been in the factory, so this is not some new thing. On the Model S ramp my desk was also in the middle of the factory at the side of the body line for a year.

我的辦公桌經常在工廠裡，所以這不是什麼新鮮事。在 Model S 坡道上，我的辦公桌也在車身線一側的工廠中間放置了一年。

So I move my desk around to wherever the most important place is for the company, and then I sort of maintain a desk there over time to come and check in on things. But I suspect probably by the end of this quarter most of my time will not be spent on the factory floor.

所以我把我的辦公桌搬到對公司來說最重要的地方，然後我會隨著時間的推移在那里維護一張辦公桌來檢查事情。但我懷疑可能到本季度末我的大部分時間都不會花在工廠車間上。

Pat Archembault, Goldman Sachs.

Pat Archembault，高盛。

Thank you, good afternoon. Getting back to the capital requirement for the expanded Model 3 production, appreciate the guidance that you've provided for this year from a CapEx perspective, that's helpful, but maybe this is a question for Jason, can you share with us maybe what a total capital cost estimate might look like for the Model 3 program, now that you've got a handle on what you're volume's going to be, or what you want to produce to?

謝謝，下午好。回到擴大 Model 3 生產的資本要求，感謝您從資本支出的角度為今年提供的指導，這很有幫助，但也許這是 Jason 的問題，您能與我們分享一下總共有多少Model 3 項目的資本成本估算可能看起來像，現在您已經掌握了您的產量或您想要生產的產品？

Yes, a couple things there. We've provided some breadcrumbs, like we updated our CapEx guidance to, we had guided at $1.5 billion last quarter, and we think it'll probably be 50% higher than that for 2016 into 2017. And into 2017 we're not going to talk about that right now, but the other thing to pay attention to is our CapEx for this quarter was $216 million which was a 47% decrease over Q4. A little bit of that is what we talked about last quarter, where a lot of the big investments for Model X had already been made, but also we're just really focusing, as Elon has said, on capital efficiency and making sure that we are investing in the highest and best uses of cash and I think those principles are what's going to guide the Model 3 program.

是的，有幾件事。我們提供了一些麵包屑，比如我們更新了我們的資本支出指導，上個季度我們指導為 15 億美元，我們認為它可能會比 2016 年到 2017 年高出 50%。到 2017 年，我們不會去現在談論這個，但要注意的另一件事是我們本季度的資本支出為 2.16 億美元，比第四季度下降了 47%。其中一點是我們上個季度談到的，其中已經對 Model X 進行了很多大筆投資，但正如 Elon 所說，我們只是真正關注資本效率，並確保我們正在投資於現金的最高和最佳用途，我認為這些原則將指導 Model 3 計劃。

That's a good starting point to work with for us, we appreciate the update for this year. Maybe the way to take the question is to kind of understand when the peak spending periods are going to be? If you're launching through middle of next year, is it a good idea to maybe extend the amount of capital you see spending in the balance [of recorders] through the second half of next year, and then clearly with the launch, that tapers off, is that a right way to think about it?

這對我們來說是一個很好的起點，我們感謝今年的更新。也許回答這個問題的方法是了解消費高峰期將是什麼時候？如果您要在明年年中發布，是否可以將您看到的 [記錄儀] 餘額中支出的資金數量延長到明年下半年，然後隨著發布而明顯減少關閉，這是一個正確的思考方式嗎？

Second to that, I would probably ask the same question just on the R&D front, when did those costs spike in the timeframe of that program?

其次，我可能會在研發方面問同樣的問題，這些成本在該計劃的時間範圍內何時飆升？

Sure, I think you're thinking about it the right way, the way you've laid it out. You can use Model X and Model S in the ramp of capital for those programs as a way to think about Model 3.

當然，我認為您正在以正確的方式思考它，按照您的佈局方式。您可以將 Model X 和 Model S 用於這些項目的資本斜坡，以此作為思考 Model 3 的一種方式。

On the R&D piece of it, that is a big driver behind our updating of our range to 20% to 25% OpEx in 2016, so we'll start to see a little bit of that in the second half of this year, and then certainly some more into the first half of 2017.

在研發方面，這是我們在 2016 年將 OpEx 範圍更新到 20% 到 25% 的一個重要驅動力，所以我們將在今年下半年開始看到一點點，然後2017 年上半年肯定還會有更多。

Got it. If I can squeeze in one last one, just on the sourcing, is this changing your strategy of working with suppliers? You've done a lot in-house for all your products so far, but obviously this is a very different kind of volume number you're talking about, so are you thinking about changing the level of vertical integration, and how does that work into sort of the ongoing capital requirements for this program?

知道了。如果我可以在採購上擠最後一個，這是否會改變您與供應商合作的策略？到目前為止，您已經在內部為您的所有產品做了很多工作，但顯然這是一種非常不同的數量，所以您是否正在考慮改變垂直整合的水平，以及它是如何工作的進入該計劃的持續資本要求？

No, I think we're actually going to increase the amount of vertical integration that we have. I think it's very important for us to have the ability to produce almost any part on the car at will, because it alleviates risk with suppliers, where, going back to if 2% of suppliers aren't ready, we can't make the car. Having the ability internally to adapt and make that 2% of parts internally really massively reduces risks associated with the production ramp. That I think is a very important thing.

不，我認為我們實際上會增加我們擁有的垂直整合的數量。我認為對我們來說，能夠隨意生產汽車上幾乎任何零件的能力非常重要，因為它可以減輕供應商的風險，如果 2% 的供應商還沒有準備好，我們就無法製造車。有能力在內部適應並在內部製造這 2% 的零件，從而真正大大降低了與生產坡道相關的風險。我認為這是一件非常重要的事情。

Now if we get to a steady state, and maybe we talk to a supplier and they can do a very efficient job of making that part, we have no problem transitioning from insource to outsource. Our goal is not to insource for the sake of insourcing, but I would rather see insource if we think that it has meaningful improvement on schedule or cost or quality.

現在，如果我們達到穩定狀態，也許我們與供應商交談，他們可以非常有效地製造這部分，我們從內包過渡到外包沒有問題。我們的目標不是為了內包而內包，但如果我們認為內包對進度或成本或質量有有意義的改進，我寧願看到內包。

One of the challenges we face is that for a lot of the supply chain [they are being matched] to the timeframe of the big OEMs, and Tesla just moves a lot faster than the big OEMs. And so if they're [being matched] to like a six-year development cycle, and we are on a two- or three-year development cycle, it just doesn't connect properly. Some suppliers can handle that and some can't.

我們面臨的挑戰之一是，對於許多供應鏈 [他們正在匹配] 大型 OEM 的時間表，而特斯拉的行動比大型 OEM 快得多。因此，如果他們 [被匹配] 喜歡一個六年的開發週期，而我們處於一個兩三年的開發週期，它就是無法正確連接。有些供應商可以處理，有些則不能。

It certainly seems to limit some of the people you could work with. Thanks for the clarification.

當然，這似乎限制了您可以與之共事的一些人。感謝您的澄清。

Brian Johnson, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

Yes, good evening, afternoon. I want to talk a little bit about some of the milestones that you see in terms of this accelerated development in the launch of, the scale up of the Model 3? First it looked like in the proxy that the alpha prototype was completed as of when it was filed a few weeks ago, so a few questions. One, when do you expect the beta prototype to be achieved? When do you think you'll have firm specs for both your internal parts operations and for your external suppliers?

是的，晚上好，下午。我想談談你看到的一些里程碑，這些里程碑是在 Model 3 的推出和擴大規模方面的加速發展？首先，在代理中，alpha 原型在幾週前提交時已經完成，所以有幾個問題。一、您預計什麼時候可以實現測試版原型？您認為您的內部零件運營和外部供應商什麼時候會有明確的規格？

And then in terms of the capital, do you see, two other questions, when would you see raising capital, if at all, to meet this? And then finally given the volume of trade-off decisions you're talking about making between manufacturing design engineering, do you see any role for a COO type, similar to what you have at SpaceX, to accomplish this timeline?

然後就資本而言，您是否看到另外兩個問題，您何時會看到籌集資金（如果有的話）來解決這個問題？最後，考慮到您在製造設計工程之間做出的權衡決策，您是否認為類似於您在 SpaceX 的 COO 類型可以完成這個時間表？

Okay, that's like 17 questions in one.

好的，這就像 17 個問題合二為一。

You can send us the project plan.

您可以將項目計劃發送給我們。

From an engineering standpoint, we're almost complete with the design of Model 3 and in fact the prototype that was driving at the [motor] event end of March was actually using the production drivetrain. So I think we feel pretty good about engineering completion of the last items, probably within six to eight weeks, thereabouts. So we're completing final release for [tooling] no later than the end of June.

從工程的角度來看，我們幾乎完成了 Model 3 的設計，事實上，在 3 月底的 [motor] 活動中駕駛的原型實際上是在使用量產的動力傳動系統。所以我認為我們對最後幾個項目的工程完成感覺很好，大概在六到八週內。因此，我們將在 6 月底之前完成 [tooling] 的最終版本。

That leaves roughly nine months for the tools to be manufactured, which I think is an achievable timeframe, I guess for some suppliers an achievable timeframe. You can have a human baby in nine months, and you can pretty much make a tool in nine months. So that's our expectation.

剩下大約九個月的時間來製造工具，我認為這是一個可以實現的時間框架，我想對於一些供應商來說是一個可以實現的時間框架。你可以在九個月內生一個人類嬰兒，你幾乎可以在九個月內製作一個工具。這就是我們的期望。

So then you want to have parts or production tooling starting in April next year. So we've got three months of validation for a normal start of volume production in July. Again, it's a nominal start and it's a date that we internally take seriously and that suppliers need to take seriously, but it is one where inevitably there will be some small number of items that cause slippage, such that the actual date of reaching volume production is some number of months after that.

因此，您希望從明年 4 月開始擁有零件或生產工具。因此，我們已經進行了三個月的驗證，可以在 7 月正常開始批量生產。同樣，這是一個名義上的開始，這是我們內部認真對待並且供應商需要認真對待的日期，但它不可避免地會出現一些導致滑點的少量項目，因此達到量產的實際日期是在那之後的幾個月。

This is simply in the nature of things. It's unavoidable and if you could tell me what those parts would be, we would be able to take action now. It's easier what these things are in hindsight, not in advance, and sometimes there are things you don't expect to be a problem.

這只是事物的本質。這是不可避免的，如果你能告訴我這些部分是什麼，我們現在就可以採取行動了。事後看來這些事情更容易，而不是事先考慮，有時有些事情你不希望成為問題。

Tesla is a large, complex business. I don't want to comment too specifically on (inaudible).

特斯拉是一家龐大而復雜的企業。我不想太具體地評論（聽不清）。

Okay. Does this imply a similar accelerated schedule for the Gigafactory, which always seemed tied to the 2020 half million unit goal?

好的。這是否意味著 Gigafactory 的類似加速計劃似乎總是與 2020 年的 50 萬單位目標相關聯？

It does. JB, do you have something on that?

確實如此。 JB，你對此有什麼看法嗎？

As we've discussed previously, this is a small part of why the Gigafactory was, we accelerated some of our plans there and we're still on track to have first cell production starting at the end of this year, so that we'll be able to ramp up to match the Model 3 schedule as well.

正如我們之前討論過的，這只是 Gigafactory 存在的一小部分原因，我們在那裡加快了一些計劃，我們仍有望在今年年底開始生產第一批電池，這樣我們就可以能夠加速以匹配 Model 3 的時間表。

Again, I want to emphasize some comments that I made earlier in the earnings call which is Tesla is really hell-bent on being the world's best in manufacturing. This is a big deal and I think it's the right thing to do. Because what we're trying to do is get as many electric cars on the road as possible, and what's the limiting factor? Well it's production.

再次，我想強調我早些時候在財報電話會議上發表的一些評論，即特斯拉真的一心想成為世界上最好的製造業。這是一件大事，我認為這是正確的做法。因為我們要做的是讓盡可能多的電動汽車上路，限制因素是什麼？嗯，是生產。

How can we scale and scale efficiently? And so we need to figure out how to be the world's best in manufacturing, that's what we're going to be hell-bent on doing.

我們如何才能有效地擴展和擴展？所以我們需要弄清楚如何成為世界上最好的製造業，這就是我們將一心想要做的事情。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

Elon, on our math your combined fleet of Model S and X are driving more than 3 million miles a day, so in just one day your cars do about 2X the distance that Google's done in the entire history of their self-driving car project. Now while your cars aren't exactly sensor-encrusted Christmas trees with tens of thousand dollars of equipment like a retrofitted Google car, it's still a lot of miles, and I'm just wondering if you could explain to the investment community what kind of advantage this gives Tesla in the race for sustainable transport in accident-free driving, in some commercial financial terms if you could? Thanks. Or even engineering terms.

埃隆，根據我們的數學計算，您的 Model S 和 X 聯合車隊每天行駛超過 300 萬英里，因此在一天之內，您的汽車行駛距離大約是 Google 在其整個自動駕駛汽車項目歷史上行駛距離的 2 倍。現在，雖然你的汽車不像改裝的谷歌汽車那樣配備了數万美元的設備，完全不是裝有傳感器的聖誕樹，但它仍然有很多英里，我只是想知道你是否可以向投資界解釋什麼樣的如果可以的話，這讓特斯拉在無事故駕駛的可持續運輸競賽中獲得優勢，在某些商業財務方面？謝謝。甚至是工程術語。

I think you've pretty much asked the question and answered it. Data is everything, really, when you're trying to solve the autonomous transport problem, and having millions of miles per day of data accumulating, and then as the fleet grows, that grows proportionate to the fleet is incredibly helpful.

我想你已經問了這個問題並回答了。數據就是一切，真的，當你試圖解決自動運輸問題時，每天積累數百萬英里的數據，然後隨著車隊的增長，與車隊成比例的增長是非常有幫助的。

Particularly as we go to long-term fully autonomous driving, that that's going to require quite a lot of regulatory oversight, and I think in order for regulators to be comfortable approving that, they're going to want to see a very large amount of data, maybe billions of miles showing that the car is unequivocally safe in autonomous mode, compared to manual mode, in a wide range of circumstances, in countries all around the world, with different rules of the road, and ways of behavior. It'll have to be something statistically significant, like billions of miles.

特別是當我們進行長期的全自動駕駛時，這將需要大量的監管監督，我認為為了讓監管機構輕鬆批准這一點，他們將希望看到大量的數十億英里的數據表明，與手動模式相比，自動模式下的汽車在廣泛的情況下，在世界各地的國家，具有不同的道路規則和行為方式，是絕對安全的。它必須具有統計學意義，例如數十億英里。

Okay, well that leads to my follow-up, which is once high volumes of statistical data for your autonomous miles are collected and analyzed, I have this image if you and some CEOs of other auto companies, and CEOs of other software and tech hardware firms testifying in Congress about the urgent need to replace these dangerous purely human-driven cars on the road with available, affordable, and proven, even L2, L3 technology, or semi-autonomous, that's ready for introduction, to dramatically improve the epidemic of traffic fatalities. It's like a national public health and safety priority.

好的，這就引出了我的後續行動，一旦收集和分析了你的自動駕駛里程的大量統計數據，如果你和其他汽車公司的一些 CEO，以及其他軟件和技術硬件的 CEO，我就會有這樣的形象公司在國會作證說，迫切需要用可用、負擔得起、經過驗證的、甚至是準備好引入的 L2、L3 技術或半自動駕駛汽車來取代道路上這些危險的純人工駕駛汽車，以顯著改善流行病交通事故死亡人數。這就像國家公共衛生和安全的優先事項。

Am I crazy, Elon, about that type of role for people in your position to play, armed with the data empirically? And if I'm not crazy, then how soon do you think it would take for tech firms like you to have a sufficient quantity and quality of data to be able to make such a scientifically proven case? Thanks.

埃隆，我是不是瘋了，對於像你這樣的人扮演的那種角色，憑經驗武裝起來？如果我不是瘋了，那麼你認為像你這樣的科技公司需要多長時間才能擁有足夠數量和質量的數據才能做出這樣一個經過科學證明的案例？謝謝。

Tesla will argue for autonomous driving, but we're not going to argue against manual driving and I believe people should have the freedom to choose to do what they want to do, and yes, sometimes those things are dangerous. But freedom is important, and if people want to drive, even if it's dangerous, they should be allowed to drive in my view. But then the autonomous safety systems should be in there, such that even if you're in manual mode, the car will still aid you in avoiding an accident.

特斯拉會支持自動駕駛，但我們不會反對手動駕駛，我相信人們應該有選擇做他們想做的事情的自由，是的，有時這些事情是危險的。但自由很重要，如果人們想開車，即使很危險，在我看來也應該被允許開車。但是自動安全系統應該在那裡，這樣即使你處於手動模式，汽車仍然會幫助你避免事故。

Okay, great, thanks.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

Joe Stack, RBC Capital Markets.

喬·斯塔克，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thanks, good afternoon everyone. Also wanted to focus on the adjust in the Gigafactory plans. I believe originally you indicated about 15 gigawatt hours per year were earmarked for Energy, and with Model 3 demand clearly robust and likely more robust than you originally planned, I'm wondering if that moves some of those Tesla Energy ambitions to the backburner, does it accelerate the need for a second Gigafactory, or maybe perhaps you found a way to squeeze more out of the existing one?

謝謝，大家下午好。還想專注於 Gigafactory 計劃中的調整。我相信你最初表示每年大約有 15 吉瓦時專門用於能源，並且由於 Model 3 的需求明顯強勁，而且可能比你最初計劃的更強勁，我想知道這是否會使特斯拉能源的一些雄心壯志被擱置，確實它加速了對第二個 Gigafactory 的需求，或者也許您找到了一種從現有 Gigafactory 中擠出更多的方法？

I think the simplest answer is we have a lot more capacity at that site than the initial 35 and 15 gigawatt hours that we discussed. That's part of why we've so aggressively made sure we have extra land and extra space around the site, so that we can continue to expand and we won't need to rob from Tesla Energy plans in order to meet the Model 3 schedule. We definitely have a way to solve both.

我認為最簡單的答案是我們在該站點的容量比我們討論的最初的 35 和 15 吉瓦時要多得多。這就是為什麼我們如此積極地確保我們在場地周圍有額外的土地和額外空間的部分原因，這樣我們就可以繼續擴張，我們不需要為了滿足 Model 3 的時間表而剝奪特斯拉能源計劃。我們肯定有辦法解決這兩個問題。

And are you willing to provide an update to those initial targets?

您是否願意為這些初始目標提供更新？

Not yet. Maybe in one or two earning calls from now I think we'll be able to shed more light on that. But yes, as JB was saying, we're going to make sure Tesla Energy is not constrained by vehicle needs. The growth rate of Tesla Energy is, on a (inaudible) basis, going to be far greater than the growth rate in cars.

還沒有。也許從現在開始的一兩個收益電話中，我認為我們將能夠對此有所了解。但是，是的，正如 JB 所說，我們將確保 Tesla Energy 不受車輛需求的限制。在（聽不清）的基礎上，特斯拉能源的增長率將遠高於汽車的增長率。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

瑞安·布林克曼，摩根大通。

Great, thanks for taking my question. We can all now see with the Model 3 pre-orders that you are entirely correct that there is tons of demand for the car, just like you've been saying all along. So I think about a month ago when you started tweeting those pre-orders, the investor and parts supplier confidence in your ability to ramp to half million units rightfully skyrocketed.

太好了，感謝您提出我的問題。我們現在都可以通過 Model 3 的預購看到，您完全正確，對汽車有大量需求，就像您一直在說的那樣。所以我想，大約一個月前，當你開始在推特上發布這些預購訂單時，投資者和零部件供應商對你能夠合理地增加到 50 萬台的信心猛增。

With that said, from a supply perspective, sometimes you had difficulty in achieving delivery targets because of issues and smoothly increasing capacity and assembly, and you've shown a strong preference for emphasizing quality over quantity.

話雖如此，從供應的角度來看，有時您會因為問題和順利增加產能和組裝而難以實現交付目標，並且您表現出強調質量而不是數量的強烈偏好。

So is there anything that's changed on the supply side of the equation that should also be confidence [fulfilling, building], maybe lessons learned from the launch of X or some other factor that should give confidence in your ability to be at a 200,000 to 400,000 unit annual run rate of Model 3 production approximately 14 months from now?

那麼，等式的供應方面是否有任何改變，也應該是信心[履行，建立]，也許是從 X 的推出中吸取的經驗教訓或其他一些因素，應該讓你有信心達到 200,000 到 400,000 的能力大約 14 個月後 Model 3 產量的單位年運行率？

Again, I want to emphasize that the July 1 date is not a date that will actually be met, it is an impossible date. However, it is a date we need to hold ourselves to internally, and we need to hold suppliers to. But it is an impossible date because the 6,000, 7,000 unique components in the Model 3, and that would assume that all of them arrive on time.

再次，我想強調，7 月 1 日的日期並不是一個實際會遇到的日期，這是一個不可能的日期。但是，這是我們需要在內部堅持的日期，我們需要讓供應商堅持下去。但這是一個不可能的日期，因為 Model 3 中有 6,000、7,000 個獨特的組件，而且假設它們都準時到達。

Just like a college term paper, they're always late term papers, but you still have to have a deadline, and it needs to be real, one with consequences if a deadline is not met. But it absolutely will not, the probability of it occurring is incredibly low, of actually achieving on July 1, but nonetheless it is a date we have to take seriously. I explained that at some risk of this being misinterpreted, but hopefully you would appreciate that I'm trying to explain how it needs to work and has to work that way, there's no other way to do it.

就像大學學期論文一樣，它們總是遲到的論文，但你仍然必須有一個截止日期，而且它必須是真實的，如果沒有達到截止日期，就會產生後果。但它絕對不會，它發生的可能性非常低，實際上在 7 月 1 日實現，但仍然是我們必須認真對待的日期。我解釋說，這可能會被誤解，但希望你會理解我試圖解釋它需要如何工作並且必須以這種方式工作，沒有其他方法可以做到這一點。

And the things that help us get there are designing Model 3 for manufacturing, with manufacturing, engineering, and production, and supply chain all in a very close loop, and making sure that we designed the car to be easy to make. That we iterate with suppliers and ask them how, if we're giving them a design that's easy to make or one that's hard to make or how do we reduce risk, improve it, and make it easier to build.

幫助我們實現這一目標的事情是設計用於製造的 Model 3，製造、工程、生產和供應鏈都處於非常緊密的循環中，並確保我們設計的汽車易於製造。我們與供應商進行迭代並詢問他們如何，如果我們給他們一個易於製造或難以製造的設計，或者我們如何降低風險，改進它並使其更容易構建。

This is really fundamentally different from S and X. The S was the first car we really designed ourselves and it was all about just trying to make the car to work in the first place. X was basically built off of the S platform, but then even more complicated, so unfortunately, even harder to make.

這與 S 和 X 完全不同。S 是我們真正自己設計的第一輛汽車，而這一切都是為了讓汽車一開始就可以工作。 X 基本上是在 S 平台上構建的，但後來變得更加複雜，所以不幸的是，製作起來更加困難。

The Model 3 is the first car Tesla is creating that is designed to be easy to make. This is really a fundamental difference. And then I mentioned also increasing the scope of our in-house abilities, so that if there's a supplier that isn't able to deliver on time, we can scramble fast and produce that component in-house.

Model 3 是特斯拉製造的第一款易於製造的汽車。這確實是一個根本性的區別。然後我提到還增加了我們內部能力的範圍，這樣如果有供應商不能按時交貨，我們可以快速爭奪並在內部生產該組件。

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝你。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

Good afternoon, a first question on the capital needs. It looks like there's a little over $400 million left on the ABL and given the pre- orders or the reservations for the Model 3, it seems like you'll have at least another $400 million flowing in in the second quarter. So just curious, as you look at that kind of cash potential or liquidity and potential inflow, do you really think you need to do a capital raise this year, or could you get by with those sources of cash?

下午好，關於資金需求的第一個問題。看起來 ABL 上還剩下 4 億多美元，考慮到 Model 3 的預購或預訂，看起來第二季度至少還有 4 億美元流入。所以只是好奇，當你看到那種現金潛力或流動性和潛在流入時，你真的認為你今年需要籌集資金，或者你能靠這些現金來源過活嗎？

I don't think we want to rely too much on customer reservation money as opposed to capital. Maybe there is a buffer or something but not as a primary source of capital. So it's going to make sense for us to raise some amount of money, some combination of equity and debt, and to make sure the company has a good buffer of cash on hand. I think it's important for de-risking the company.

我認為我們不想過多地依賴客戶預訂資金而不是資金。也許有緩衝或其他東西，但不是資本的主要來源。因此，我們籌集一定數量的資金、股權和債務的某種組合，並確保公司手頭有良好的現金緩衝，這將是有意義的。我認為這對降低公司風險很重要。

This is Jason, the only thing I'd add to that is, we did draw $430 million on the ABL this quarter. A lot of that was we had a large amount of cash in transit at the end of the quarter, our deliveries were a little bit back-end loaded, and as those cars were delivered in early April, we were able to pay a significant portion of that back.

這是傑森，我唯一要補充的是，本季度我們確實在 ABL 上提取了 4.3 億美元。其中很大一部分是我們在本季度末有大量現金在途，我們的交付有點後端加載，並且由於這些汽車是在 4 月初交付的，我們能夠支付很大一部分那個背。

Yes, I think most people are familiar with the Asset Backed Line, but it's important to say why is that different from general debt? Unlike other automotive companies, Tesla doesn't ship to dealers, we ship to customers. So we build the cars to order, the car is complete and it's going to a known customer.

是的，我認為大多數人都熟悉資產支持線，但重要的是要說為什麼它與一般債務不同？與其他汽車公司不同，特斯拉不向經銷商發貨，我們向客戶發貨。所以我們按訂單製造汽車，汽車已經完成，它會交付給一個已知的客戶。

So really the only risk associated with that is if like the ship sinks or something, or the truck that's carrying the cars crashes. But the ABL is, the Asset Backed Line is basically finished goods in transit to known customers. It's not like general corporate debt. It's I think more appropriately thought of as a slight increase in cost of goods sold.

所以真正與此相關的唯一風險是，如果船沉沒或其他什麼，或者載有汽車的卡車發生碰撞。但是 ABL 是，Asset Backed Line 基本上是在向已知客戶運輸途中的成品。這不像一般的公司債務。我認為更恰當地認為是銷售成本略有增加。

Okay, that's helpful. And then if I can ask just one follow-up from another question, as you look at the ramp with suppliers, is there any recourse to suppliers that don't meet that starter production next year, or any point of the production schedule, or is it really just you cancel the business and move on to another supplier?

好的，這很有幫助。然後，如果我可以從另一個問題中只問一個後續問題，當您查看供應商的坡道時，是否有任何追索權來滿足明年不滿足啟動生產要求的供應商，或生產計劃的任何時間點，或者真的只是您取消業務並轉向另一個供應商嗎？

We'll be asking for firm commitments from suppliers to meet that timeframe. And I'm meeting personally with the team from that supplier who is going to execute on the task, so I have not just the commitment of the CEO or general manager of that supplier, but the actual team that will execute on the product, and we want to confirm that we feel confident in the actual team, and basically we're asking for the A Team from the A supplier, and a commitment from that A Team that they intend to work harder than they ever have on any other program. And if they're willing to do that, then we work together. Otherwise, not.

我們將要求供應商做出堅定的承諾，以滿足該時間框架。我將親自與該供應商的執行任務的團隊會面，因此我不僅有該供應商的首席執行官或總經理的承諾，還有將執行產品的實際團隊，並且我們想確認我們對實際團隊充滿信心，基本上我們要求 A 供應商提供 A 團隊，以及該 A 團隊的承諾，即他們打算比以往任何時候都更加努力地工作。如果他們願意這樣做，那麼我們就一起工作。否則，不會。

And recourse if they miss targets?

如果他們錯過了目標，他們會追索嗎？

Yes. Along the way we will be assessing progress and our confidence level that suppliers will meet the July 1 target. If it looks like they will not, we'll have a conversation with them. If our comfort level drops below a certain level, they will not be a supplier to Tesla.

是的。在此過程中，我們將評估進展以及我們對供應商將達到 7 月 1 日目標的信心水平。如果看起來他們不會，我們將與他們進行對話。如果我們的舒適度下降到某個水平以下，他們就不會成為特斯拉的供應商。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的羅德·拉什。

Hey everybody, a couple of questions. One, distribution and franchise laws in the US have always seemed like there are initiatives that are going to need to be dealt with at some point. Does this trajectory force the issue, or is this something you can accommodate even with the distribution constraints?

大家好，有幾個問題。第一，美國的分銷和特許經營法似乎總是需要在某個時候處理一些舉措。這個軌跡是否會導致問題，或者即使有分佈限制，你也可以適應這個問題？

First of all, it's worth emphasizing that the whole dealership thing only applies in the US. We don't carry that issue anywhere else in the world.

首先，值得強調的是，整個經銷商的事情只適用於美國。我們不會在世界其他任何地方提出這個問題。

What's happening is dealers are using a (inaudible) legislation that was originally put in for a just purpose, which is to protect them from predatory practices from the franchisor, and then using it for an unjust purpose which is to prevent direct distribution. We believe that in the long-term justice will prevail.

正在發生的事情是，經銷商正在使用最初出於正當目的而製定的（聽不清）立法，即保護他們免受特許人的掠奪性行為，然後將其用於不公正的目的，即阻止直接分銷。我們相信，從長遠來看，正義必將佔上風。

Okay. But is there a view that you can actually achieve this even under the constraints that exist today, or is that something that you do need to address in order to achieve this plan?

好的。但是，是否有一種觀點認為即使在當今存在的限制下您也可以真正實現這一目標，或者您是否需要解決一些問題才能實現這一計劃？

We believe that that is not a constraint on our ability to achieve the plan.

我們認為，這不會限制我們實現計劃的能力。

Okay. The second question is, I'm assuming that concurrently with this plan there's kind of a longer-term plan for growth, and that there's going to be a Fremont Number 2, and I think you alluded to further expansion of Gigafactory. Can you give us a sense of what you're aspiring to in terms of the trajectory by the end of the decade as you've done before? And Jason, I know you didn't want to get into details on project spending, but it would be helpful just to pass along some thoughts on what needs to go into the company in terms of investment in order to get that sort of thing out.

好的。第二個問題是，我假設在這個計劃的同時還有一個長期的增長計劃，並且會有一個弗里蒙特二號，我認為你提到了 Gigafactory 的進一步擴張。您能否像以前一樣，讓我們了解您在十年結束時的發展軌跡？傑森，我知道你不想詳細了解項目支出，但如果只是傳遞一些關於在投資方面需要進入公司的想法以將這類事情拿出來，這將是有幫助的.

Is it reasonable to assume that the new level of spending that we're seeing right now is something that we should assume as being a sustained level going forward?

假設我們現在看到的新支出水平是我們應該假設為未來的持續水平是否合理？

Sure. I don't want to go into the details of what we think the total capital cost is going to be for the Model 3 program, but certainly as we continue to ramp, there's going to be more capital requirements of the company. That's just a fact. Ideally I'd like to fund as much of that as possible with cash flow from operations, so that is really the focus that we have in the short-term.

當然。我不想詳細說明我們認為 Model 3 項目的總資本成本將是多少，但可以肯定的是，隨著我們繼續增長，公司將會有更多的資本需求。這只是事實。理想情況下，我想盡可能多地用運營現金流來資助，所以這確實是我們在短期內的重點。

It's fair to say there's probably a 2020 target for volume is closer to a million vehicles in 2020, or something like that.

可以公平地說，到 2020 年，2020 年的銷量目標可能接近 100 萬輛汽車，或者類似的東西。

Okay. Great, thank you.

好的。太好了謝謝。

Charlie Anderson, Dougherty.

查理·安德森，多爾蒂。

Thanks for taking my question, just a two-parter on the Model 3 reservation holders. I imagine for many of them this was their first interaction with Tesla, and maybe the first time they went to a store. And I wonder as you've looked at that base if there is any potential to upsell to an S or X in the interim while they wait for their car, if you have a programs or plan to address that?

感謝您提出我的問題，這只是 Model 3 預訂持有者的兩方。我想對他們中的許多人來說，這是他們與特斯拉的第一次互動，也許是他們第一次去商店。我想知道，當您查看該基地時，是否有可能在他們等待汽車的過渡期間向 S 或 X 追加銷售，您是否有計劃或計劃解決這個問題？

And then secondarily, I was curious if you have any color on the geographic split of the reservation holders? Thanks.

其次，我很好奇您是否對預訂持有人的地理分佈有任何看法？謝謝。

This is Jon. In terms of your first question on whether or not the reservation holders, this was their first interaction with Tesla, just about 93% of the reservation holders, this is their first interaction with Tesla. So it's a super, super majority of a new client base or customer base for Tesla and it's exciting.

這是喬恩。關於你第一個問題，預約持有者是否是第一次與特斯拉互動，大約93%的預約持有者，這是他們與特斯拉的第一次互動。因此，對於特斯拉來說，這是一個超級、超級多數的新客戶群或客戶群，這令人興奮。

It was exciting where we walked the lines, with people waiting in line at the stores, and they were excited to become part of the Tesla community and family. And the demographics of the owners, we're not going to say much about that, but they are a bit different as you can imagine than the Model S and the Model X owners to date. And it presents an exciting new market for Tesla as well. And it should be noted these folks are not interested just only in Tesla Motors, but also Tesla Energy, because the price point of the Tesla Powerwall is an accessible price point for many of these folks, and so they're expressing interest in both.

我們排隊的地方令人興奮，人們在商店排隊等候，他們很高興能成為特斯拉社區和家庭的一員。還有車主的人口統計數據，我們不會對此多說，但正如你可以想像的那樣，它們與迄今為止的 Model S 和 Model X 車主有點不同。它也為特斯拉提供了一個令人興奮的新市場。值得注意的是，這些人不僅對 Tesla Motors 感興趣，而且對 Tesla Energy 感興趣，因為 Tesla Powerwall 的價格點對於這些人中的許多人來說是可以接受的價格點，因此他們對兩者都表示興趣。

In terms of S and X as a bridge to Model 3, we are talking through and thinking through that, because as Elon mentioned earlier, the quickest path to receiving a Model 3 is being a Tesla owner. We've agreed that Tesla owners are receiving priority in terms of production. And so you can run the math I just mentioned. It's 93% are new to Tesla and 7% of the reservation holders are Tesla owners and the fastest way to get a production vehicle even in 2017 is through Tesla ownership, and so we're finding that there's a good conversion rate of folks that are coming in to test drive an S or an X, who are Model 3 reservation holders, and are motivated to be Tesla owners now, so that they can receive their Model 3 earlier.

就 S 和 X 作為通往 Model 3 的橋樑而言，我們正在討論和思考，因為正如 Elon 之前提到的，獲得 Model 3 的最快途徑是成為特斯拉車主。我們已經同意特斯拉車主在生產方面享有優先權。所以你可以運行我剛才提到的數學。 93% 是特斯拉的新手，7% 的預訂持有者是特斯拉車主，即使在 2017 年，獲得量產車的最快方式是通過特斯拉所有權，所以我們發現有很好的轉換率來試駕 S 或 X，他們是 Model 3 預訂持有者，現在有動力成為特斯拉車主，這樣他們就可以更早地收到他們的 Model 3。

An important point worth mentioning, we were fairly worried about what would happen with the Model 3 announcement. Would it cause like some a big drop in, say, Model S sales? It seems to have had the opposite effect. It seems as though S demand has increased.

值得一提的重要一點是，我們相當擔心 Model 3 的發布會發生什麼。它會導致 Model S 銷量大幅下降嗎？它似乎產生了相反的效果。似乎 S 的需求增加了。

It has increased. I think you saw the S demand number in the first quarter was 45% up year-over-year, and that demand continues.

它增加了。我認為您看到第一季度的 S 需求數量同比增長 45%，並且這種需求仍在繼續。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA.

伊曼紐爾·羅斯納，里昂證券。

Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to ask you guys about any early thoughts on the need for manufacturing extension? Obviously if you are doing 500,000 units by 2018, I think that's the original capacity of the Fremont plant, so do you need to start thinking about an additional plant, and in that context, any thoughts on the global expansion you were mentioning, obviously very strong increase in Model S orders in Asia, for example. Anything you could share with us at this point?

你好，下午好。我想問你們關於製造擴展需求的早期想法？顯然，如果你到 2018 年要生產 500,000 台，我認為這是弗里蒙特工廠的原始產能，那麼你是否需要開始考慮額外的工廠，在這種情況下，你提到的全球擴張的任何想法，顯然非常例如，亞洲 Model S 訂單的強勁增長。在這一點上你有什麼可以和我們分享的嗎？

Our plans for international expansion and establishment of new plants are speculative. We haven't made any firm decisions. But some of the things are just sort of common sense that manufacturing cars in California and then shipping them all around the world is not a very efficient thing to do, particularly as you go to more affordable vehicles.

我們的國際擴張和建立新工廠的計劃是投機性的。我們還沒有做出任何堅定的決定。但是有些事情只是一種常識，即在加利福尼亞製造汽車然後將它們運送到世界各地並不是一件非常有效的事情，尤其是當您購買更實惠的汽車時。

So at some point it's going to make sense to have a plant in Europe and a plant in China and probably plants in other parts of the world. So that's kind of the natural thing you'd expect to do. It wouldn't make sense to ship cars from California to Europe or California to Asia in those volumes. It's not an efficient way to go. And particularly as we saturate on Fremont volume in terms of satisfying demand in North America, just to satisfy demand in North America, for our future product lineup we're going to need more than one plant in North America, just to satisfy North America demand.

因此，在某些時候，在歐洲建廠、在中國建廠，甚至可能在世界其他地區建廠是有意義的。所以這是你期望做的很自然的事情。將這些數量的汽車從加利福尼亞運到歐洲或從加利福尼亞運到亞洲是沒有意義的。這不是一個有效的方法。特別是當我們在滿足北美需求方面使弗里蒙特產量飽和時，只是為了滿足北美的需求，對於我們未來的產品陣容，我們將需要在北美不止一個工廠，以滿足北美的需求.

Right, so when we think about these extra capital needs that you're alluding to, in addition to obviously the cost of the Model 3 development, are you also [campaigning] as part of that to raise the money for an extra factory to the extent that just beyond 2018 you would already need some extra capacity?

是的，所以當我們考慮到您所暗示的這些額外資金需求時，除了顯然 Model 3 開發的成本之外，您是否也 [活動] 作為其中的一部分，為額外的工廠籌集資金到 2018 年之後，您是否已經需要一些額外的容量？

I don't think we'll be raising money for new factories before we add volume production for the Model 3. And then as Jason was saying earlier, we'll try to find as much of this as possible from operating cash flow.

我認為在增加 Model 3 的量產之前，我們不會為新工廠籌集資金。然後正如 Jason 之前所說，我們將嘗試從運營現金流中找到盡可能多的資金。

Got it, thank you.

收到了。謝謝。

Ben Callow, Robert W. Baird.

本·卡洛，羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

Thanks a lot, I have 18 questions. The first one I have, Model X production, where are we at right there, because we've got all these consumer reports issues, and I think that's a little backdated but can you talk to us about the [state] production of that? Number two on the Gigafactory and the battery size for the Model 3, I think everyone's dividing by 80 kilowatt hours or 75 kilowatt hours to the number of cars, and how do we think about actually the Model 3 battery size and what the Gigafactory could support?

非常感謝，我有 18 個問題。我的第一個，Model X 的生產，我們在哪裡，因為我們有所有這些消費者報告的問題，我認為這有點過時了，但你能和我們談談那個 [state] 的生產嗎？ Gigafactory 和 Model 3 的電池容量排名第二，我想每個人都將汽車數量除以 80 千瓦時或 75 千瓦時，我們如何看待 Model 3 的電池容量以及 Gigafactory 可以支持什麼?

And then the third question is why is Bob Lutz and Jim Chanos, they keep on saying such negative things about you guys? What do you have to do to get the dissenters to actually believe in Tesla a little bit? Thank you.

然後第三個問題是為什麼 Bob Lutz 和 Jim Chanos，他們總是對你們說這些負面的話？你必須做些什麼才能讓持不同政見者真正相信特斯拉一點點？謝謝你。

I feel confident that we are going to hit the 2,000 vehicle a week target by the end of this quarter, of which on the order of 40% are X. That's our internal plan and what we expect to meet.

我相信我們將在本季度末達到每週 2,000 輛汽車的目標，其中大約 40% 是 X。這是我們的內部計劃，也是我們期望達到的目標。

There's no question the X is a very difficult car to manufacture. I think unquestionably the most difficult car to manufacture in the world and Bob Lutz would agree with that. I think he said something to the effect that he thought it wasn't manufacturable, or something like that. It's certainly manufacturable, it's just a hard thing to (inaudible) for.

毫無疑問，X 是一款非常難以製造的汽車。我認為毫無疑問是世界上最難製造的汽車，Bob Lutz 會同意這一點。我認為他說了一些大意是他認為它是不可製造的，或者類似的東西。它當然是可製造的，這只是一件很難（聽不清）的事情。

So we have some internal milestones that we've achieved that I'm pretty excited about. Friday at 3am we achieved our first flawless production of the Model X, where we went through the whole production process and had zero issues, that was a great milestone.

因此，我們已經實現了一些讓我非常興奮的內部里程碑。週五凌晨 3 點，我們實現了 Model X 的首次完美生產，我們經歷了整個生產過程並且零問題，這是一個偉大的里程碑。

[Background Noise] Celebrating with the team at 3am Friday was great. Now we're starting to get several in a row that are flawless and -- [Background Noise] -- very quickly, and [we] feel pretty good about the trajectory of that fact.

[背景噪音] 週五凌晨 3 點與團隊一起慶祝很棒。現在我們開始連續獲得幾個完美無瑕的 - [背景噪音] - 非常快，[我們]對這個事實的軌跡感覺很好。

As for convincing all the naysayers, that will basically be never. There's always going to be naysayers. [Background Noise] What I find ironic about the naysayers is the very same people will transition from saying it was impossible to saying it was obvious. [Laughter]

至於說服所有反對者，那基本上是永遠不會的。總是會有反對者。 [背景噪音] 我覺得反對者俱有諷刺意味的是，同樣的人會從說不可能變成說這是顯而易見的。 [笑聲]

I'm like, wait a second. Was it obvious or impossible? It can't be both.

我想，等一下。這是顯而易見的還是不可能的？不可能兩者兼而有之。

Got it. And the Model 3 battery, we're all analysts here. We stare down a straw, dividing by 75 kilowatt hours. Is that the right thing to do with the Model 3, or should we have a lower number like 40 kilowatts or 45?

知道了。還有 Model 3 電池，我們都是分析師。我們盯著一根稻草，除以 75 千瓦時。這對 Model 3 來說是正確的，還是我們應該有一個更低的數字，比如 40 千瓦或 45 千瓦？

And then you've got the guy with the Volt making that car, saying that it's going to be ahead of you guys and sell for cheaper than you, and so how do I think about GM being able to make a car cheaper than you, versus making a margin on a Tesla with a lower battery cost? If that makes sense.

然後你讓那個開著 Volt 的人製造那輛車，說它會領先於你們並且賣得比你便宜，那麼我如何看待通用汽車能夠製造比你更便宜的汽車，與在電池成本較低的特斯拉上賺取利潤相比？如果這是有道理的。

We're not going to get into real specifics on battery pack size, but I think it's fair to say the average battery size for the 3 will be less than 75 kilowatt hours.

我們不打算深入了解電池組尺寸的具體細節，但我認為可以公平地說 3 的平均電池尺寸將小於 75 千瓦時。

I'm sorry, what was that?

對不起，那是什麼？

The average energy content of a 3 pack is still going to be less than 75 kilowatt hours. It doesn't really need to be anywhere near 75 killowatt hours to achieve the range of 215 miles. We don't want to get into the nitty-gritty, it's probably unwise.

3 包的平均能量含量仍將低於 75 千瓦時。它實際上並不需要接近 75 千瓦時來達到 215 英里的範圍。我們不想深入細節，這可能是不明智的。

You probably don't need to fixate on the 35 gigawatt hours. We're planning the Gigafactory to meet the production needs of the energy that we know the cars will need. So there's not a problem in scaling that as we need to, so obviously internally, we know the math and we know what we need to do and we're on track to do it.

您可能不需要專注於 35 吉瓦時。我們正在規劃 Gigafactory 以滿足我們知道汽車所需的能源的生產需求。因此，按照我們的需要進行擴展沒有問題，顯然在內部，我們知道數學，我們知道我們需要做什麼，並且我們正在按計劃進行。

I guess my 18th question is, I'm not a car guy, so I have you guys having 40,000 units of the Model 3 in 2017. From your commentary, it seems like I need to raise my numbers, but how do I think about that ramp up from zero to 500,000 over, let's push it from 2018 on? Does it go from zero to 500,000 over two years or one year or how do we think about that?

我想我的第 18 個問題是，我不是汽車人，所以我讓你們在 2017 年擁有 40,000 輛 Model 3。從你的評論來看，我似乎需要提高我的數量，但我怎麼想從零增加到 500,000 以上，讓我們從 2018 年開始吧？它會在兩年或一年內從零增加到 500,000 嗎？或者我們如何看待這一點？

Obviously if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production on the order of 500,000 cars in 2018, [can't] be more than two years to get there.

顯然，如果我們說特斯拉在 2018 年的汽車總產量將達到 500,000 輛，那麼[不可能] 超過兩年才能實現。

Production ramps look like an S-curve. It's extremely difficult to predict with precision the early part of the S-curve. In the early part of the S-curve, it starts off very slow and then it increases exponentially, moves to a linear, and then moves to a logarithmic. So it's really (technical difficulties)incredibly difficult to predict exactly what the shape of that S-curve is.

生產斜坡看起來像一個 S 曲線。精確預測 S 曲線的早期部分非常困難。在 S 曲線的早期，它開始時非常緩慢，然後呈指數增長，變為線性，然後變為對數。因此，要準確預測 S 曲線的形狀是非常困難的（技術困難）。

And that's where things get tricky, because you end up putting quarterly results kind of [bracketing] somewhere on that S-curve, and depending on where you are in that S-curve, it can actually look like a big difference, but actually it could be a shift of a (technical difficulties)because of the exponential nature the beginning of the S-curve.

這就是事情變得棘手的地方，因為你最終會在 S 曲線的某個地方放置季度結果的 [括號]，並且根據你在 S 曲線中的位置，它實際上看起來可能有很大的不同，但實際上它可能是（技術困難）的轉變，因為 S 曲線的開始是指數性質的。

My 19th question, can you make 15% gross margin on it, or 20% gross margin, or how do you think about margin on it, because people think you can't make it (technical difficulties)profitably.

我的第 19 個問題，你能賺到 15% 的毛利率，還是 20% 的毛利率，或者你如何看待它的毛利率，因為人們認為你不能讓它（技術困難）盈利。

We're highly confident that it can be made profitably, and design for manufacturing and economies of scale are the keys to achieving that outcome.

我們對它可以盈利充滿信心，而製造設計和規模經濟是實現這一結果的關鍵。

GM is not aiming for anything near the volumes that we are. And despite being a big company, their economies of scale are going to be driven by whatever elements are unique in their EV, and we know for a fact that they will not get the economies of scale that we will be at for Model 3.

通用汽車的目標不是接近我們的銷量。儘管是一家大公司，但他們的規模經濟將受到其 EV 中任何獨特元素的驅動，而且我們知道他們不會獲得 Model 3 的規模經濟。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Dana Hall, Bloomberg News.

Dana Hall，彭博新聞社。

Hi. What is the mix in 2018 of the 500,000 cars? It's combined S, X, and 3. Should we think of it as like 300,000 3, or what's the mix of those three vehicles?

你好。 2018 年 50 萬輛汽車的組合是什麼？它是 S、X 和 3 的組合。我們應該將其視為 300,000 3，還是這三輛車的組合？

I don't think we've got an amazing crystal ball to figure out exactly what it's going to be. I feel confident about the topline number, but the mix internally, it is difficult to figure that out. Maybe it's something like 100,000 to 150,000 S and X, and then maybe [300,000 to 400,000] of 3, I don't know. It's really hard to say.

我不認為我們有一個驚人的水晶球來弄清楚它到底會是什麼。我對頂線數字很有信心，但在內部混合，很難弄清楚。也許是 100,000 到 150,000 個 S 和 X，然後可能是 [300,000 到 400,000] 個 3，我不知道。真的很難說。

Hard to say? Okay. And then if you try to attract top manufacturing talent as you begin to ramp, have you given any thought to trying to hire a COO? I'm just thinking about your personal life between Tesla and SpaceX and sleeping in a sleeping bag and working 90 hours a week between two companies. SpaceX has a great COO and has had one since the company, for years, but Tesla never has.

很難說？好的。然後，如果您在開始爬坡時試圖吸引頂尖的製造人才，您是否考慮過聘請首席運營官？我只是在想你在特斯拉和 SpaceX 之間的個人生活，睡在睡袋裡，每週在兩家公司之間工作 90 小時。 SpaceX 有一位出色的首席運營官，自公司成立以來一直有一位，多年來一直如此，但特斯拉從未有過。

The scope of Tesla's present activity is broader than SpaceX. SpaceX is more of a pure technology company and does not have the sales, service, and fleet management and customer financing and all that sort of stuff that Tesla has. Obviously Jon McNeill has that role at Tesla.

特斯拉目前的活動範圍比 SpaceX 更廣泛。 SpaceX 更像是一家純粹的技術公司，沒有特斯拉擁有的銷售、服務、車隊管理和客戶融資以及所有類似的東西。顯然，喬恩·麥克尼爾在特斯拉擔任過這個角色。

My focus is primarily on technology, design, and manufacturing. So I think we certainly can expect there will be announcements in the future about some great executives joining the ranks.

我主要關注技術、設計和製造。所以我認為我們當然可以期待未來會有一些偉大的高管加入這一行列的公告。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Phil LeBeau, CNBC.

菲爾·勒博，CNBC。

Hi Elon, I have a question, it was about 10 minutes ago, you made reference to 1 million vehicles in 2020. Is that a production target, a production goal, or a hypothetical? I'm just looking for some clarification there.

嗨 Elon，我有一個問題，大約 10 分鐘前，您提到 2020 年 100 萬輛汽車。這是生產目標、生產目標還是假設？我只是在那裡尋找一些澄清。

That's my best guess. If we're 0.5 million in 2018 and roughly 50%-ish growth from there, then it's probably around 1 million in 2020.

這是我最好的猜測。如果我們在 2018 年達到 50 萬，並且從那裡增長大約 50%，那麼到 2020 年可能會達到 100 萬左右。

And do you have an estimate as to how many production plants you will need in order to make that happen?

您是否估計需要多少生產工廠才能實現這一目標？

I think it is actually feasible, maybe not advisable, but feasible to do it with just Fremont and the Gigafactory. We actually believe that the Fremont and the Gigafactory could scale to a 1million vehicles. Whether that's actually wise is a separate question.

我認為這實際上是可行的，也許不是可取的，但僅使用 Fremont 和 Gigafactory 是可行的。我們實際上相信弗里蒙特和超級工廠可以擴大到 100 萬輛汽車。這是否真的明智是一個單獨的問題。

As I said earlier, it's going to make sense to do localized production at least on a continent basis, otherwise your logistics costs end up being quite extreme. Your logistics costs start becoming a bigger and bigger percentage of total vehicle costs. That's really why manufacturers build their cars for a local market, they build cars for a market in that market because logistics costs associated with shipping 1.5 ton to 2 ton vehicles are massively the greater than, say, shipping a little consumer electronics device.

正如我之前所說，至少在大陸上進行本地化生產是有意義的，否則您的物流成本最終會非常高。您的物流成本開始佔車輛總成本的比例越來越大。這就是製造商為當地市場製造汽車的真正原因，他們為當地市場製造汽車，因為與運輸 1.5 噸到 2 噸汽車相關的物流成本要遠遠高於運輸小型消費電子設備的成本。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Alex Sage, Reuters.

亞歷克斯·薩奇，路透社。

Hi, can you hear me? Elon, you say that you're calling out to the best minds of manufacturing to join Tesla, but at the same time Google and Apple are giving out the same call. I wonder what you would say to these people to have them join Tesla over these other companies?

嗨，你能聽到我的聲音嗎？埃隆，你說你在呼籲製造業最優秀的人才加入特斯拉，但同時谷歌和蘋果也在發出同樣的呼籲。我想知道你會對這些人說什麼讓他們加入特斯拉而不是其他公司？

The second question is whether you had any takeaways in terms of your suppliers in terms of this Hoerbiger experience, and how you can hold these suppliers' feet to the fire on some of these more complicated tasks that they're asked to fulfill?

第二個問題是，就賀爾碧格的這次經歷而言，您是否對您的供應商有任何啟示，以及您如何才能讓這些供應商在他們被要求完成的一些更複雜的任務中保持警惕？

In response to your first question, I'm not sure you're appreciating -- Apple and Google do not manufacture things themselves.

在回答你的第一個問題時，我不確定你是否欣賞——蘋果和谷歌自己不生產東西。

Right, but they are hiring manufacturing people.

是的，但他們正在招聘製造人員。

To do what?

做什麼？

That's a good question, but they are hiring manufacturing people, people with manufacturing experience.

這是一個很好的問題，但他們正在招聘具有製造經驗的製造人員。

Tesla believes strongly in making things, they do not. That's fine. It's a philosophical difference.

特斯拉堅信製造東西，但他們沒有。沒關係。這是哲學上的差異。

We believe that manufacturing technology is itself subject to [transmatter] innovation, and in fact we believe that there's more potential for innovation in manufacturing, than there is in the design of the car by a long shot. Now this is just a philosophical difference. Perhaps we are wrong. But we believe in manufacturing and we believe that a company that values manufacturing as highly as we do is going to attract the best minds in manufacturing.

我們相信製造技術本身是受 [transmatter] 創新的影響，事實上，我們相信製造創新的潛力遠遠超過汽車設計。現在這只是一個哲學差異。也許我們錯了。但我們相信製造業，我們相信像我們一樣重視製造業的公司將吸引製造業最優秀的人才。

Okay.

好的。

I think that's all the time we have.

我想這就是我們所有的時間。

The supplier question?

供應商問題？

I don't understand who you are referring to.

我不明白你指的是誰。

Hoerbiger?

賀爾碧格？

Not familiar with that name.

不熟悉這個名字。

We're certainly going to do our best to ensure that we have high confidence in the suppliers on the Model 3 program. Those that didn't perform very well on, say, prior programs are unlikely to be selected for the Model 3 program.

我們當然會盡最大努力確保我們對 Model 3 計劃的供應商充滿信心。那些在之前的項目中表現不佳的項目不太可能被選入 Model 3 項目。

At this time I would like to turn it back to Mr. Jeff Evanson for any closing remarks.

在這個時候，我想把它轉回給傑夫埃文森先生的任何結束語。

Thank you everyone for joining us today. We'll talk to you in a quarter. Bye bye.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我們將在一個季度內與您交談。再見。

All right, thank you.

好噠。謝謝你們。

This concludes today's conference. You may now all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可能都斷開連接並度過美好的一天。