特斯拉 (TSLA) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors first quarter 2016 financial results Q&A conference call.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加特斯拉汽車 2016 年第一季財務業績問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

As a reminder this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Mr. Evanson, you may begin.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人傑夫·埃文森先生。埃文森先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherrie, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's first quarter 2016 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla Chairman and CEO; JB Straubel, our CTO; CFO Jason Wheeler; and Jon McNeill, President of Global Sales, Service, and Delivery.

謝謝謝麗，大家下午好！歡迎收聽特斯拉2016年第一季問答網路直播。今天與我一起參加直播的嘉賓有特斯拉董事長兼執行長馬斯克、技術長JB·史特勞貝爾、財務長傑森·惠勒以及全球銷售、服務和交付總裁喬恩·麥克尼爾。

Our Q1 results are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast. As this usual this letter includes GAAP and non-GAAP financial information, and reconciliations between the two.

我們的第一季業績將在更新函中公佈，該函件與本次網路直播的連結相同。與往常一樣，本函包含 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務訊息，以及兩者之間的對帳。

During our call we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recently filed Form 10-K, now at the SEC website.

在電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近提交的10-K表格（現已發佈在美國證券交易委員會（SEC）網站上）中提到的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能與此存在重大差異。

We're going to start today's call with some comments by Elon, followed by the question and answer period, and during the Q&A time, please try and limit yourselves to one question and one follow-up so we can give everyone a chance to ask a question. So while Elon is making his remarks, if you haven't done so please press star one now to get into the queue to ask a question.

今天的電話會議將以馬斯克的發言開始，之後是問答環節。在問答環節，請盡量只提出一個問題和一個後續問題，以便每個人都有機會提問。所以，在馬斯克發言期間，如果您還沒有按星號 1，請立即加入提問隊列。

Elon, I'll turn it over to you.

伊隆，我把這個交給你。

Thank you. I think the most important point here that we want to make is that we're advancing the Model 3 build plan substantially, and just the overall volume plan, with Tesla aiming to get to the half million unit per year run rate in 2018 instead of 2020. And this is based off the tremendous demand received for the Model 3 which I think is actually a fraction of the ultimate demand, when people fully understand what the car's capable of and are able to do a test drive. So this is probably the biggest change strategically.

謝謝。我認為我們這裡要強調的最重要的一點是，我們正在大幅推進Model 3的生產計劃，以及整體產量計劃。特斯拉的目標是在2018年而不是2020年達到年產50萬輛的目標。這是基於Model 3的巨大需求，但我認為，當人們充分了解這款車的性能並能夠進行試駕時，這實際上只是最終需求的一小部分。所以，這可能是戰略上最大的改變。

Also, Tesla is going to be hell-bent on becoming the best manufacturer on earth. Thus far, I think we've done a good job on design and technology of our products. The Model S and X are generally regarded by critical judges as technologically the most advanced cars in the world. We've done well in that respect.

此外，特斯拉將不遺餘力地成為全球最優秀的製造商。到目前為止，我認為我們在產品設計和技術方面做得非常出色。 Model S 和 Model X 被業界人士普遍認為是全球技術最先進的汽車。在這方面，我們做得非常出色。

The key thing we need to achieve in the future is to also be the leader in manufacturing. We take manufacturing very seriously at Tesla. It's the thing we need to obviously solve if we are going to scale and scale rapidly and make the cars more affordable. I really want to send the message out there to the best manufacturing people in the world, we want you to come join our company.

我們未來需要實現的關鍵目標，是成為製造業的領導者。在特斯拉，我們非常重視製造業。如果我們想要快速擴張，讓汽車更實惠，這顯然是我們需要解決的問題。我真心想向世界上最優秀的製造業人士傳達這樣一個訊息：我們歡迎你們加入我們。

And that is going to be the primary focus of Tesla, how do we get super good at making large complex objects? That's the most salient point. It's either get wrapped up in a bunch of short-term issues, but I think in terms of what matters in the future, I think that's the most significant thing.

特斯拉的首要關注點在於：我們如何精通製造大型複雜物體？這是最突出的一點。要么被一堆短期問題所困擾，但我認為，就未來重要的事情而言，這才是最重要的。

Overall on the short-term stuff, our quarter over quarter stuff I think has improved quite significantly. Obviously Model X production increased by a factor of five from Q4 to Q1, and we continue to make huge strides in volume and quality of the vehicle, and I'm personally spending an enormous amount of time on the production line. My desk is at the end of the production line. I have a sleeping bag in a conference room adjacent to the production line which I use quite frequently. The whole team is super focused on achieving rate and quality at the target cost. I feel very confident in us achieving that goal. With the increase in ramp, we do feel comfortable affirming the 80,000 to 90,000 deliveries this year. The rate of improvement with each passing day is very significant.

就短期業績而言，我認為我們的季度環比增長相當顯著。 Model X 的產量顯然比第一季增加了五倍，而且我們在車輛的產量和品質方面也持續取得巨大進步。我個人在生產線上投入了大量時間。我的辦公桌就在生產線的末端。我在生產線旁的會議室放了一個睡袋，我經常使用。整個團隊都非常專注於以目標成本實現產量和品質。我對我們實現這一目標非常有信心。隨著產量提升，我們很有信心今年的交車量可以達到 8 萬到 9 萬輛。日復一日的改進速度非常顯著。

Finally, I'd like to thank Greg Reichow who was our head of production for tremendous contribution over the last five years. Contrary to media reports, Greg is still at Tesla, he's still with the company, and he's helping with the transition to some new leadership. We have some I think exciting announcements coming in possibly the next few weeks, in addition to the Tesla management team on the production side. I feel really, really excited about where things are headed in that direction.

最後，我要感謝過去五年來擔任我們生產主管的格雷格·雷喬（Greg Reichow）的巨大貢獻。與媒體報道相反，格雷格仍在特斯拉工作，仍在公司，並且正在協助新領導層的交接。除了特斯拉生產管理團隊的消息外，我們可能在接下來的幾週內還會發布一些令人興奮的消息。我對事情朝著這個方向發展感到非常非常興奮。

With that, let's go to questions.

好了，讓我們開始提問吧。

James Albertine, Stifel.

詹姆斯·阿爾伯丁，Stifel。

Great, thank you so much. Elon, thank you for that introduction. There's no doubt you have an incredible undertaking in front of you. Can you help us understand some of the key obstacles and how we should consider those obstacles between now and your anticipated launch of the Model 3 in late 2017? Whether it's a P&L adjustment that we need to make along the way, but can you help us choreograph how that's going to take place?

太好了，非常感謝。埃隆，謝謝你的介紹。毫無疑問，你面前的任務非常艱鉅。你能不能幫我們理解一下，從現在到2017年底Model 3預計上市期間，我們面臨的一些關鍵障礙，以及我們該如何應對這些障礙？這是否是我們在過程中需要進行的損益調整？你能不能幫我們規劃一下如何進行這些調整？

Sure. With the Model 3 as I mentioned on the last earnings call, we're really trying to take a lot of lessons learned from Model X. Where Model X, we put a lot of bells and whistles on Model X and a lot of advanced technologies that weren't necessary for version one of the vehicle. With Model 3 we're being incredibly rigorous about ensuring that we don't have anything that isn't really necessary to make a very compelling version one of the car.

當然。正如我在上次財報電話會議上提到的，對於 Model 3，我們確實在努力從 Model X 中學到很多經驗教訓。在 Model X 上，我們添加了許多第一代車款中並不需要的花俏功能和先進技術。而對於 Model 3，我們則非常嚴格，確保不添加任何不必要的功能，從而打造出一款非常引人注目的第一代車型。

We also have a much tighter feedback loop between design engineering, manufacturing engineering, and production and so a new element of Model 3 can't be approved unless manufacturing has said that this is easy to manufacture and that the risk associated with manufacturing is low. There are many ways to skin a cat, and it's remarkable how you can achieve the same objective with a hugely varying degree of difficulty. You can take an analogy and say, if you wanted to kill a fly, you can kill a fly with a thermonuclear weapon, with a MOAB, with a cruise missile, with a machine gun, or a flyswatter. The end result is the same, but the difficulty is considerably more significant from one to the other, and the collateral damage is considerably more significant.

我們在設計工程、製造工程和生產之間也建立了更緊密的回饋迴路，因此，除非製造部門表示該元素易於製造且製造相關風險較低，否則 Model 3 的新元素無法獲得批准。條條大路通羅馬，實現同一目標的難度卻大相逕庭，這真是令人驚嘆。打個比方，如果你想殺死一隻蒼蠅，你可以用熱核武器、反坦克導彈、巡航導彈、機槍或蒼蠅拍來殺死它。最終結果是一樣的，但難度各不相同，附帶損害也更大。

So having production be really fundamental to the design of the Model 3 I think is very important, and then making sure we're not adding extraneous features to the 3, that are unnecessary to achieve the production volume, is also extremely important. At the risk of this being misinterpreted, and probably there will be some (inaudible) articles that do, I think it is worth explaining how manufacturing a complex object with several thousand unique components actually works, and what dates are relevant. In order to achieve volume production of a car, a new car with several thousand unique items, you actually have to set a target date internally and with suppliers that is quite aggressive and that is the date that has to be taken seriously.

因此，我認為讓量產成為 Model 3 設計的核心要素至關重要，同時，確保我們不在 Model 3 中添加不必要的功能，這些功能對於實現量產也至關重要。儘管我的觀點可能會被誤解，而且可能有些（聽不清楚）文章會這樣認為，但我認為有必要解釋一下，如何製造一個包含數千個獨特部件的複雜物體，以及哪些日期是相關的。為了實現一輛汽車的量產，一輛包含數千個獨特部件的新車，你實際上必須在內部以及與供應商設定一個目標日期，這個日期必須非常積極，而且必須認真對待。

The date, I'm sure this will leak, it's hard to keep a secret really, the date we are setting with suppliers to get to volume production capability with the Model 3 is July 1 next year. Now, will we actually be able to achieve volume production on July 1 next year? Of course not. The reason is that even if 99% of the internally produced items and supplier items are available on July 1, we still cannot produce the car because you cannot produce a car that is missing 1% of its components.

至於具體日期，我肯定肯定會洩露，這真的很難保密。我們和供應商約定的Model 3量產日期是明年7月1日。那麼，我們真的能在明年7月1日實現量產嗎？當然不能。原因是，即使99%的自產零件和供應商零件在7月1日到位，我們仍然無法生產這款車，因為一輛汽車如果缺少1%的零件就無法生產。

Nonetheless, we need to, both internally and with suppliers, take that date seriously, and there need to be some penalties for anyone, internally or externally, who does not meet that timeframe. This has to be the case because there's just no way that you have several thousand components, all of whom make it on a particular date. The reality is that the volume production will then be some number of months later, as we solve the supply chain and internal production issues.

儘管如此，我們內部和供應商都必須認真對待這個日期，並且對任何未能按時完成任務的人（無論是內部還是外部）都必須進行處罰。必須如此，因為我們不可能擁有數千個組件，並且所有組件都在特定日期完成。實際情況是，量產將在幾個月後才能實現，屆時我們將解決供應鏈和內部生產問題。

But it is a bit of a confusing thing, and it does create some churn because people are like, well what's the real date? You have to take the July 1 date seriously in order for some date a few months later or several months later to actually be the real date. That's actually how it has to work.

但這確實有點令人困惑，而且確實會造成一些客戶流失，因為人們會想，真正的日期是什麼時候？你必須認真對待7月1日這個日期，這樣幾個月後或幾個月後的某個日期才算是真正的日期。實際上，它必須這樣運作。

So in order for us to be confident of achieving volume production of Model 3 by late 2017, we actually have to set a date of mid-2017 and really hold people's feet to the fire internally and externally to achieve an actual volume production date of late 2017. So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That's my expectation right now.

因此，為了確保我們在2017年底前實現Model 3的量產，我們實際上必須將量產日期定在2017年中期，並在公司內部和外部切實施壓，確保在2017年底實現量產。因此，我粗略估計，我們的目標是在明年下半年生產10萬到20萬輛Model 3。這是我目前的預期。

What I would say to anyone that is thinking about ordering a Model 3, now is a good time to actually place your reservation or place your order, because you don't have to worry about placing your order and receiving it five years from now. If you place your order now there's a high probability you will actually receive your car in 2018. So I'd really recommend that anyone who wants to receive their car in 2018 place their order very soon.

我想對任何正在考慮訂購 Model 3 的人說，現在是預訂或下單的好時機，因為你不必擔心五年後才能收到車。如果你現在下單，很有可能在 2018 年就能拿到車。所以我真心建議任何想在 2018 年拿到車的人盡快下單。

Elon, thank you. And if I may as a follow-up, can you give us some reference as to, again, most generously you would think if you said the end fourth quarter, or sorry, you said fourth quarter of 2017, so the six months, at its most generous calculation, how does that compare with the volume production agreed date for the Model X, just as an example? And then how does this flow with your cash needs? As you've articulated, it seems you've walked back a little bit from the prior quarter's discussion around cash flow positive and no need for capital markets raise. It seems like there may be a need here, if you could just articulate how the two fit together, that'd be helpful. Thanks.

伊隆，謝謝你。接下來，請問您能否提供一些參考資訊？如果您說的是第四季度末，或者抱歉，您說的是2017年第四季度，那麼六個月，按照最寬容的計算，與Model X的量產日期相比如何？這與您的現金需求如何協調？正如您所說，您似乎已經從上一季關於現金流為正且無需資本市場融資的討論中退縮了一些。看起來這裡可能存在需求，如果您能解釋一下這兩者是如何協調的，那將會很有幫助。謝謝。

It's always tempting for people to reason by analogy instead of first principles and that would be the mistake of assuming that anything to do with the X production has bearing on the Model 3. They are very different programs with completely different approaches. So I would not try to extrapolate from that, any more than it would've made sense to extrapolate from the Roadster when we were making 600 cars a year, to 20,000 cars a year with the Model S.

人們總是傾向於用類比推理而不是第一原理來推理，而如果認為任何與特斯拉Model X生產相關的因素都會影響Model 3，那就大錯特錯了。它們是截然不同的項目，採用的方法也截然不同。因此，我不會試圖以此為依據進行推斷，就像我們每年生產600輛Roadster汽車，而現在我們每年生產2萬輛Model S汽車，這種推斷也毫無意義一樣。

So in the roadster case we went from making 600 cars a year in 2010, where Lotus made the body and chassis, we made the powertrain, and we did final assembly, it was a far simpler car than the Model S. We told people we're going to get to a run rate of 20,000 cars a year with the Model S, despite it being a vastly more complicated car and a car where we made the whole car, not just the powertrain. If you were to extrapolate from the Roadster experience, you would be completely wrong about the Model S outcome, and many people were, that's why I would say X is not relevant.

所以，就Roadster而言，我們從2010年的600輛年產量開始，當時蓮花車負責製造車身和底盤，我們負責製造動力系統，並進行最終組裝。這款車比Model S簡單許多。我們告訴人們，Model S的年產量要達到2萬輛，儘管它比Model S複雜得多，而且我們製造的是整車，而不僅僅是動力系統。如果你根據Roadster的經驗進行推斷，那麼你對Model S的預測就完全錯了，很多人都錯了，這就是為什麼我會說X與Model S無關。

As far as the increased capital rates, well obviously if you double your planned volume, you can't expect the capital to stay the same. I think our capital efficiency will actually improve on a per car basis, but obviously it can't stay the same.

至於資本利率的提高，顯然，如果你把計畫產量翻一番，你就不能指望資本成本保持不變。我認為我們的資本效率實際上會以每輛車計算有所提高，但顯然不可能保持不變。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Colin Lincoln, UBS.

瑞銀集團的柯林林肯 (Colin Lincoln)。

Thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow-up, you've had issues with the [act], there's management changes. What gives you the confidence that the 500,000, that's a pretty amazing jump into next year, what gives that conviction that that's going to be possible by 2020?

感謝您回答我的問題。我想問一下，您之前對[法案]和管理層變動有過一些意見。是什麼讓您有信心明年能達到50萬，這是一個相當驚人的飛躍？是什麼讓您確信2020年就能達成這個目標？

You mean by 2018.

你的意思是到 2018 年。

Yes, 2018, yes.

是的，2018 年，是的。

First of all, I think we've got an excellent team at Tesla in production, and we're adding world-class [aces] in production with each passing week. It is a huge advantage to have, it's fair to say it's probably the most compelling product program in the world with the Model 3. I'm not sure what would be more compelling, I think there's a good argument that Model 3 is the most compelling program on earth from a manufacturing standpoint.

首先，我認為特斯拉擁有一支優秀的生產團隊，而且我們每週都在增加世界級的生產人才。這是一個巨大的優勢，可以說，Model 3 可能是世界上最引人注目的產品項目。我不知道還有什麼比這更引人注目，但我認為，從製造的角度來看，Model 3 無疑是世界上最引人注目的項目。

So our ability to recruit top manufacturing talent to the most compelling product on earth is very strong, we find the response to be extremely good when we call people up. So based on the rate at which we're adding world-class manufacturing expertise, and some of the things that I know we're going to announce in the future, I feel highly confident the Model 3 is going to be well executed as a program.

因此，我們為全球最具吸引力的產品招募頂尖製造人才的能力非常強大，我們發現，當我們招募人才時，他們的反應非常熱烈。因此，基於我們不斷提升世界一流製造專業知識的速度，以及我所知道的未來將要發布的一些消息，我非常有信心，Model 3 專案將會順利實施。

Yes, that's it. You want to add something, JB?

是的，就是這樣。你還有什麼要補充嗎，JB？

Yes, if I might just add, you mentioned this briefly before, but the design of the vehicle lends itself to high-volume production very efficiently. And I think that's --

是的，請允許我補充一下，您之前簡單提到過，這款車的設計非常適合高效地進行大批量生產。我認為這…

-- designed for manufacturing.

——專為製造而設計。

Absolutely. And that's something we're doing even today. Those designs are firming up, so this is something happening far, far ahead of time. And the second point would be the quality and the motivation of the suppliers involved in the program --

當然。而且我們今天還在做這件事。這些設計正在逐步完善，所以這件事已經提前很久了。第二點是參與此專案的供應商的品質和積極性—

Yes. That's massively increased.

是的，成長幅度非常大。

Every supplier wants to be in this program.

每個供應商都想參與這個專案。

Got it. And if I could ask a follow-up, obviously cost is going to be an important factor when 3 launches. I think you've indicated that your battery cost with [Packer] now, under $190 per kilowatt hour. How do you think that compares to the industry, where do you think it'll be by the time the Model 3 is launching?

明白了。如果我可以問一個後續問題，顯然成本將成為 Model 3 發佈時的一個重要因素。我記得您已經提到過，現在與 [Packer] 合作的電池成本低於每千瓦時 190 美元。您認為這與行業平均值相比如何？您認為到 Model 3 發佈時，電池成本會達到多少？

We're trying to comment on individual component costs, and that's fairly proprietary, it's like giving away our playbook. But I think it's pretty obvious that we will exceed anyone else in the world in scale economies with the Gigafactory, and we're very confident (inaudible) to execute on that front. I just don't know anyone who in terms of intrinsic costs is going to be close to what the Gigafactory can produce on a cost per kilowatt hour basis.

我們試圖對單個組件的成本進行評估，這相當保密，就像洩露了我們的策略一樣。但我認為，憑藉超級工廠，我們在規模經濟方面將超越世界上任何其他公司，這一點顯而易見，而且我們非常有信心（聽不清楚）能夠做到這一點。我只是不知道有誰的內在成本能夠接近超級工廠的每千瓦時生產成本。

Any color on when we think the 190 how much of a (inaudible) decline and the Gigafactory (technical difficulty) 30% (technical difficulty)?

當我們考慮 190 時，有什麼具體數字（聽不清楚）下降了多少，Gigafactory（技術難度）下降了 30%（技術難度）？

Yes. Next question.

是的。下一個問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的科林·拉什。

Thanks so much. As you look at this accelerated plan for production, what can we expect on OpEx spending to support all of those cars coming out a lot faster than you previously expected?

非常感謝。您談到這個加速生產計劃，為了支援這些車型以比您之前預期更快的速度投產，在營運支出方面預計會是多少？

This is Jason. We updated our guidance on OpEx for the year a little bit in the letter. We talked about 20% last year and moving that range to 20% to 25% for 2016. So there's obviously going to need to be more OpEx.

我是傑森。我們在信中稍微更新了今年的營運支出預期。去年我們談到了20%，而2016年這個範圍將調整到20%到25%。所以顯然需要增加營運支出。

However, at the same time, you see how we improved quarter over quarter in terms of OpEx. We were down $12 million from Q4, down 3%. So there's a renewed focus in the halls here at Tesla on making sure that we are managing costs extremely effectively, and all of our employees get that and are contributing to that

但同時，你會看到，我們的營運支出較上季有所改善。與第四季相比，我們減少了1,200萬美元，降幅達3%。因此，特斯拉公司上下重新關注如何有效率地管理成本，所有員工都認同這一點，並為此做出了貢獻。

Yes. And our operating leverage means fixed cost relative to the variable cost is going to improve dramatically.

是的。我們的經營槓桿意味著固定成本相對於變動成本的比例將大幅改善。

Yes, absolutely. We talked a little bit about this on the call last quarter. The potential for operating leverage is massive with production scaling.

是的，絕對是如此。我們在上個季度的電話會議上討論過這個問題。隨著生產規模的擴大，營運槓桿的潛力巨大。

Great. And then Elon, what do you need to see to move your desk out of the factory, it's a dramatic thing to talk about having your factory and your sleeping bag there. So obviously there were some things you were concerned about. But what are you going to want to see to go back to a different location?

太好了。那麼埃隆，你需要看到什麼才能把你的辦公桌搬出工廠呢？說要把你的工廠和睡袋都搬到那裡，這可是個大問題。所以顯然你有一些擔憂。但是，如果你想搬回另一個地方，你希望看到什麼呢？

My desk has frequently been in the factory, so this is not some new thing. On the Model S ramp my desk was also in the middle of the factory at the side of the body line for a year.

我的辦公桌經常在工廠裡，所以這不是什麼新鮮事。在Model S的坡道上，我的辦公桌也在工廠中部車身生產線旁擺放了一年。

So I move my desk around to wherever the most important place is for the company, and then I sort of maintain a desk there over time to come and check in on things. But I suspect probably by the end of this quarter most of my time will not be spent on the factory floor.

所以我把辦公桌搬到公司最重要的地方，然後我會在那裡保留一張辦公桌，以便隨時查看情況。不過我估計到本季末，我的大部分時間可能就不會再待在工廠車間了。

Pat Archembault, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的帕特·阿奇姆博（Pat Archembault）。

Thank you, good afternoon. Getting back to the capital requirement for the expanded Model 3 production, appreciate the guidance that you've provided for this year from a CapEx perspective, that's helpful, but maybe this is a question for Jason, can you share with us maybe what a total capital cost estimate might look like for the Model 3 program, now that you've got a handle on what you're volume's going to be, or what you want to produce to?

謝謝，下午好。回到擴大 Model 3 生產的資本需求問題，感謝您從資本支出角度提供的今年的指導，這很有幫助。但也許這個問題應該問 Jason，既然您已經確定了產量目標，或者說產量目標，您能否與我們分享一下 Model 3 專案的總資本成本估算？

Yes, a couple things there. We've provided some breadcrumbs, like we updated our CapEx guidance to, we had guided at $1.5 billion last quarter, and we think it'll probably be 50% higher than that for 2016 into 2017. And into 2017 we're not going to talk about that right now, but the other thing to pay attention to is our CapEx for this quarter was $216 million which was a 47% decrease over Q4. A little bit of that is what we talked about last quarter, where a lot of the big investments for Model X had already been made, but also we're just really focusing, as Elon has said, on capital efficiency and making sure that we are investing in the highest and best uses of cash and I think those principles are what's going to guide the Model 3 program.

是的，有幾件事。我們提供了一些初步信息，例如我們更新了資本支出指引，上個季度我們的指引是15億美元，我們認為2017年可能會比2016年高出50%。 2017年我們現在不討論這個問題，但另一件需要注意的事情是，我們本季的資本支出為2.16億美元，比第四季下降了47%。這和我們上個季度討論的差不多，當時我們已經為Model X做了大量投資，但正如伊隆所說，我們非常注重資本效率，確保我們投資的資金用於最高、最有效的用途。我認為這些原則將指導Model 3專案。

That's a good starting point to work with for us, we appreciate the update for this year. Maybe the way to take the question is to kind of understand when the peak spending periods are going to be? If you're launching through middle of next year, is it a good idea to maybe extend the amount of capital you see spending in the balance [of recorders] through the second half of next year, and then clearly with the launch, that tapers off, is that a right way to think about it?

這對我們來說是一個很好的起點，我們很感謝今年的更新。或許，解決這個問題的方法是了解支出高峰期是什麼時候？如果你們打算在明年年中推出產品，那麼是否可以將你們認為在[錄音機]方面的支出延長到明年下半年，然後隨著產品發布逐漸減少，這樣考慮是否正確？

Second to that, I would probably ask the same question just on the R&D front, when did those costs spike in the timeframe of that program?

其次，我可能會在研發方面問同樣的問題，在該計劃的時間範圍內，這些成本何時達到高峰？

Sure, I think you're thinking about it the right way, the way you've laid it out. You can use Model X and Model S in the ramp of capital for those programs as a way to think about Model 3.

當然，我認為你的想法是對的，你列出的這些方案也很好。你可以參考Model X和Model S專案在資本成長的進展，來思考Model 3。

On the R&D piece of it, that is a big driver behind our updating of our range to 20% to 25% OpEx in 2016, so we'll start to see a little bit of that in the second half of this year, and then certainly some more into the first half of 2017.

就研發部分而言，這是我們在 2016 年將營運支出範圍更新為 20% 至 25% 的一個重要驅動力，因此我們將在今年下半年開始看到一點這樣的情況，然後在 2017 年上半年肯定會看到更多。

Got it. If I can squeeze in one last one, just on the sourcing, is this changing your strategy of working with suppliers? You've done a lot in-house for all your products so far, but obviously this is a very different kind of volume number you're talking about, so are you thinking about changing the level of vertical integration, and how does that work into sort of the ongoing capital requirements for this program?

明白了。如果我能再問最後一個問題，關於採購，這是否會改變你們與供應商的合作策略？到目前為止，你們所有產品都進行了大量內部開發，但顯然，你們所說的產量與以往大相逕庭。所以，你們是否考慮改變垂直整合的層次？這會如何影響該專案的持續資本需求？

No, I think we're actually going to increase the amount of vertical integration that we have. I think it's very important for us to have the ability to produce almost any part on the car at will, because it alleviates risk with suppliers, where, going back to if 2% of suppliers aren't ready, we can't make the car. Having the ability internally to adapt and make that 2% of parts internally really massively reduces risks associated with the production ramp. That I think is a very important thing.

不，我認為我們實際上會加強垂直整合的力度。我認為，擁有能夠隨意生產汽車上幾乎任何零件的能力對我們來說非常重要，因為這可以降低供應商的風險。如果2%的供應商沒有準備好，我們就無法生產汽車。擁有內部調整和生產這2%部件的能力，確實可以大大降低與產量提升相關的風險。我認為這非常重要。

Now if we get to a steady state, and maybe we talk to a supplier and they can do a very efficient job of making that part, we have no problem transitioning from insource to outsource. Our goal is not to insource for the sake of insourcing, but I would rather see insource if we think that it has meaningful improvement on schedule or cost or quality.

現在，如果我們達到穩定狀態，並且我們與供應商溝通後發現他們能夠非常有效率地生產該零件，那麼從內部採購過渡到外包就沒有任何問題。我們的目標不是為了內部採購而內部採購，而是如果我們認為內部採購能夠顯著改善進度、成本或質量，我更願意看到它。

One of the challenges we face is that for a lot of the supply chain [they are being matched] to the timeframe of the big OEMs, and Tesla just moves a lot faster than the big OEMs. And so if they're [being matched] to like a six-year development cycle, and we are on a two- or three-year development cycle, it just doesn't connect properly. Some suppliers can handle that and some can't.

我們面臨的挑戰之一是，許多供應鏈環節都需要與大型原始設備製造商（OEM）的時間安排相匹配，而特斯拉的行動速度比大型原始設備製造商快得多。所以，如果大型原始設備製造商（OEM）的開發週期是六年，而我們的開發週期是兩三年，那就無法很好地銜接。有些供應商可以應付這種情況，有些則不能。

It certainly seems to limit some of the people you could work with. Thanks for the clarification.

這確實會限制一些你可以合作的人。謝謝你的澄清。

Brian Johnson, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

Yes, good evening, afternoon. I want to talk a little bit about some of the milestones that you see in terms of this accelerated development in the launch of, the scale up of the Model 3? First it looked like in the proxy that the alpha prototype was completed as of when it was filed a few weeks ago, so a few questions. One, when do you expect the beta prototype to be achieved? When do you think you'll have firm specs for both your internal parts operations and for your external suppliers?

是的，晚上好，下午好。我想簡單談談您在 Model 3 的加速開發和規模化過程中看到的一些里程碑。首先，在委託書中，Alpha 原型車似乎在幾週前提交申請時就已經完成了，所以我想問幾個問題。第一，您預計 Beta 原型車什麼時候能完成？您認為什麼時候能為內部零件營運和外部供應商制定明確的規格？

And then in terms of the capital, do you see, two other questions, when would you see raising capital, if at all, to meet this? And then finally given the volume of trade-off decisions you're talking about making between manufacturing design engineering, do you see any role for a COO type, similar to what you have at SpaceX, to accomplish this timeline?

然後就資金而言，您還有兩個問題：您認為什麼時候會籌集資金（如果有的話）來滿足這一目標？最後，考慮到您在製造設計工程之間所做的權衡決策數量，您是否認為需要一位類似於SpaceX的營運長來協助完成這項時間表？

Okay, that's like 17 questions in one.

好的，這就像是 17 個問題合在一起了。

You can send us the project plan.

您可以將專案計劃發送給我們。

From an engineering standpoint, we're almost complete with the design of Model 3 and in fact the prototype that was driving at the [motor] event end of March was actually using the production drivetrain. So I think we feel pretty good about engineering completion of the last items, probably within six to eight weeks, thereabouts. So we're completing final release for [tooling] no later than the end of June.

從工程角度來看，Model 3 的設計已基本完成，事實上，3 月底在 [汽車] 活動上試駕的原型車實際上使用的就是量產版動力傳動系統。因此，我對最後幾個專案的工程完成感到相當滿意，大概在六到八週內。因此，我們將在不遲於 6 月底完成 [模具] 的最終發布。

That leaves roughly nine months for the tools to be manufactured, which I think is an achievable timeframe, I guess for some suppliers an achievable timeframe. You can have a human baby in nine months, and you can pretty much make a tool in nine months. So that's our expectation.

這樣，工具的製造時間大約是九個月，我認為這是可以實現的，我想對某些供應商來說也是可以實現的。九個月可以生一個嬰兒，九個月也差不多可以製造一個工具。這就是我們的預期。

So then you want to have parts or production tooling starting in April next year. So we've got three months of validation for a normal start of volume production in July. Again, it's a nominal start and it's a date that we internally take seriously and that suppliers need to take seriously, but it is one where inevitably there will be some small number of items that cause slippage, such that the actual date of reaching volume production is some number of months after that.

所以，你希望從明年4月開始獲得零件或生產工具。因此，我們有三個月的驗證期，以便在7月正常開始量產。再次強調，這只是一個名義上的開始日期，我們內部非常重視這個日期，供應商也需要認真看待。但不可避免地，在這個日期會有一些少數項目導致進度延誤，因此實際量產日期會在那之後幾個月。

This is simply in the nature of things. It's unavoidable and if you could tell me what those parts would be, we would be able to take action now. It's easier what these things are in hindsight, not in advance, and sometimes there are things you don't expect to be a problem.

這只是事情的本質。這是不可避免的，如果你能告訴我具體有哪些部分，我們現在就能採取行動了。事後諸葛亮比事前想想更容易，有時有些事情你根本想不到會成為問題。

Tesla is a large, complex business. I don't want to comment too specifically on (inaudible).

特斯拉是一家規模龐大、複雜的企業。我不想對（聽不清楚）發表太具體的評論。

Okay. Does this imply a similar accelerated schedule for the Gigafactory, which always seemed tied to the 2020 half million unit goal?

好的。這是否意味著超級工廠也會有類似的加速計畫？超級工廠似乎一直與2020年50萬輛的目標緊密相連。

It does. JB, do you have something on that?

是的。 JB，你對此有什麼看法嗎？

As we've discussed previously, this is a small part of why the Gigafactory was, we accelerated some of our plans there and we're still on track to have first cell production starting at the end of this year, so that we'll be able to ramp up to match the Model 3 schedule as well.

正如我們之前所討論的，這只是超級工廠建設的一小部分原因，我們在那裡加速了部分計劃，並且仍有望在今年年底開始第一批電池的生產，這樣我們就能加快生產速度以配合 Model 3 的時間表。

Again, I want to emphasize some comments that I made earlier in the earnings call which is Tesla is really hell-bent on being the world's best in manufacturing. This is a big deal and I think it's the right thing to do. Because what we're trying to do is get as many electric cars on the road as possible, and what's the limiting factor? Well it's production.

再次強調我之前在財報電話會議上說過的一些話：特斯拉一心想成為全球製造業的佼佼者。這意義重大，我認為是正確的做法。因為我們的目標是讓盡可能多的電動車上路，那麼限制因素是什麼呢？答案是產量。

How can we scale and scale efficiently? And so we need to figure out how to be the world's best in manufacturing, that's what we're going to be hell-bent on doing.

我們如何才能有效率地擴大規模？因此，我們需要弄清楚如何成為世界製造業的佼佼者，這也是我們將全力以赴的目標。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Elon, on our math your combined fleet of Model S and X are driving more than 3 million miles a day, so in just one day your cars do about 2X the distance that Google's done in the entire history of their self-driving car project. Now while your cars aren't exactly sensor-encrusted Christmas trees with tens of thousand dollars of equipment like a retrofitted Google car, it's still a lot of miles, and I'm just wondering if you could explain to the investment community what kind of advantage this gives Tesla in the race for sustainable transport in accident-free driving, in some commercial financial terms if you could? Thanks. Or even engineering terms.

伊隆，根據我們的計算，你們的Model S和Model X車隊每天的行駛里程超過300萬英里，也就是說，你們的汽車一天的行駛里程大約是谷歌自動駕駛汽車項目整個歷史上行駛里程的兩倍。雖然你們的汽車不像改裝的谷歌汽車那樣，裝飾著價值數萬美元的傳感器聖誕樹，但行駛里程仍然很長。我想知道，你能否向投資界解釋一下，這為特斯拉在無事故駕駛的可持續交通競賽中帶來了什麼樣的優勢？能否用一些商業金融術語來解釋一下？謝謝。或用工程術語也行。

I think you've pretty much asked the question and answered it. Data is everything, really, when you're trying to solve the autonomous transport problem, and having millions of miles per day of data accumulating, and then as the fleet grows, that grows proportionate to the fleet is incredibly helpful.

我想你基本上已經問完了，也回答了這個問題。當你試圖解決自動駕駛交通問題時，數據真的至關重要。每天累積數百萬英里的數據，隨著車隊規模的成長，這些數據也會隨之成長，這非常有幫助。

Particularly as we go to long-term fully autonomous driving, that that's going to require quite a lot of regulatory oversight, and I think in order for regulators to be comfortable approving that, they're going to want to see a very large amount of data, maybe billions of miles showing that the car is unequivocally safe in autonomous mode, compared to manual mode, in a wide range of circumstances, in countries all around the world, with different rules of the road, and ways of behavior. It'll have to be something statistically significant, like billions of miles.

尤其是在我們邁向長期完全自動駕駛的過程中，這將需要大量的監管監督。我認為，為了讓監管機構放心地批准，他們需要看到大量的數據，也許是數十億英里的行駛里程，以證明汽車在自動駕駛模式下比手動模式絕對安全，在各種情況下，在世界各國，在不同的交通規則和行為方式下，都是如此。這些數據必須具有統計意義，例如數十億英里的行駛里程。

Okay, well that leads to my follow-up, which is once high volumes of statistical data for your autonomous miles are collected and analyzed, I have this image if you and some CEOs of other auto companies, and CEOs of other software and tech hardware firms testifying in Congress about the urgent need to replace these dangerous purely human-driven cars on the road with available, affordable, and proven, even L2, L3 technology, or semi-autonomous, that's ready for introduction, to dramatically improve the epidemic of traffic fatalities. It's like a national public health and safety priority.

好的，這引出了我的後續問題。一旦收集並分析了自動駕駛里程的大量統計數據，我就能想像到，如果您和其他汽車公司的CEO，以及其他軟體和科技硬體公司的CEO在國會作證，迫切需要用現有、價格合理、經過驗證的，甚至是L2、L3技術，甚至是半自動駕駛技術，來取代道路上這些危險的純人力駕駛汽車，這些技術已經準備就緒死亡率。這就像是一項國家公共衛生和安全的優先事項。

Am I crazy, Elon, about that type of role for people in your position to play, armed with the data empirically? And if I'm not crazy, then how soon do you think it would take for tech firms like you to have a sufficient quantity and quality of data to be able to make such a scientifically proven case? Thanks.

埃隆，我瘋了嗎？像你這樣地位的人，竟然能憑藉實證數據扮演這樣的角色？如果我沒瘋，你認為像你們這樣的科技公司多久才能擁有足夠數量和品質的數據，從而做出如此科學的論證？謝謝。

Tesla will argue for autonomous driving, but we're not going to argue against manual driving and I believe people should have the freedom to choose to do what they want to do, and yes, sometimes those things are dangerous. But freedom is important, and if people want to drive, even if it's dangerous, they should be allowed to drive in my view. But then the autonomous safety systems should be in there, such that even if you're in manual mode, the car will still aid you in avoiding an accident.

特斯拉會為自動駕駛辯護，但我們不會反對手動駕駛。我相信人們應該擁有選擇自己想做的事情的自由，沒錯，有時這些事情確實很危險。但自由很重要，如果人們想開車，即使很危險，在我看來也應該允許他們駕駛。但自動駕駛安全系統也應該配備，這樣即使你處於手動模式，汽車仍然會幫助你避免事故。

Okay, great, thanks.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

Joe Stack, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的喬·斯塔克 (Joe Stack)。

Thanks, good afternoon everyone. Also wanted to focus on the adjust in the Gigafactory plans. I believe originally you indicated about 15 gigawatt hours per year were earmarked for Energy, and with Model 3 demand clearly robust and likely more robust than you originally planned, I'm wondering if that moves some of those Tesla Energy ambitions to the backburner, does it accelerate the need for a second Gigafactory, or maybe perhaps you found a way to squeeze more out of the existing one?

謝謝，大家下午好。另外我想重點談談超級工廠計畫的調整。我記得您最初表示每年大約有15千兆瓦時用於能源，而由於Model 3的需求明顯強勁，而且可能比您最初的計劃還要強勁，我想知道這是否會讓特斯拉在能源方面的一些雄心壯志被擱置，是否會加速對第二家超級工廠的需求，或者也許您找到了從現有超級工廠中榨取更多能源的方法？

I think the simplest answer is we have a lot more capacity at that site than the initial 35 and 15 gigawatt hours that we discussed. That's part of why we've so aggressively made sure we have extra land and extra space around the site, so that we can continue to expand and we won't need to rob from Tesla Energy plans in order to meet the Model 3 schedule. We definitely have a way to solve both.

我認為最簡單的答案是，我們該工廠的產能遠高於我們最初討論的35千兆瓦時和15千兆瓦時。這也是我們如此積極確保工廠周圍擁有額外土地和空間的原因之一，這樣我們就可以繼續擴張，而不需要為了滿足Model 3的時間表而佔用特斯拉能源計畫的資金。我們肯定有辦法解決這兩個問題。

And are you willing to provide an update to those initial targets?

您是否願意對這些初始目標提供最新消息？

Not yet. Maybe in one or two earning calls from now I think we'll be able to shed more light on that. But yes, as JB was saying, we're going to make sure Tesla Energy is not constrained by vehicle needs. The growth rate of Tesla Energy is, on a (inaudible) basis, going to be far greater than the growth rate in cars.

還沒有。或許以後一兩次財報電話會議我們就能更清楚地解釋這一點。不過，正如JB所說，我們將確保特斯拉能源不會受到汽車需求的限制。特斯拉能源的成長率（聽不清楚）將遠高於汽車產業的成長率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的瑞安·布林克曼。

Great, thanks for taking my question. We can all now see with the Model 3 pre-orders that you are entirely correct that there is tons of demand for the car, just like you've been saying all along. So I think about a month ago when you started tweeting those pre-orders, the investor and parts supplier confidence in your ability to ramp to half million units rightfully skyrocketed.

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。現在，從Model 3的預訂單來看，我們都能看出您說的完全正確，這款車的需求量非常大，就像您一直說的那樣。所以，我想大約一個月前，當您在推特上發布預訂單時，投資者和零件供應商對您能夠將產量提升到50萬輛的信心自然飆升了。

With that said, from a supply perspective, sometimes you had difficulty in achieving delivery targets because of issues and smoothly increasing capacity and assembly, and you've shown a strong preference for emphasizing quality over quantity.

話雖如此，從供應角度來看，有時由於問題以及順利增加產能和組裝，你們難以實現交付目標，並且你們表現出了強烈的注重質量而不是數量的傾向。

So is there anything that's changed on the supply side of the equation that should also be confidence [fulfilling, building], maybe lessons learned from the launch of X or some other factor that should give confidence in your ability to be at a 200,000 to 400,000 unit annual run rate of Model 3 production approximately 14 months from now?

那麼，在供應方面，是否發生了一些變化，也應該對信心（實現、建立）產生影響，也許是從 X 的推出中吸取的教訓，或者其他一些因素，這些因素應該讓你有信心在大約 14 個月後達到 Model 3 產量 20 萬至 40 萬輛的年運行率？

Again, I want to emphasize that the July 1 date is not a date that will actually be met, it is an impossible date. However, it is a date we need to hold ourselves to internally, and we need to hold suppliers to. But it is an impossible date because the 6,000, 7,000 unique components in the Model 3, and that would assume that all of them arrive on time.

我想再次強調，7月1日這個日期並非真正能夠實現的日期，而是一個不可能的日期。然而，這是我們內部需要堅持的日期，也是我們要求供應商堅持的日期。但這確實是一個不可能實現的日期，因為Model 3有6000到7000個獨特的零件，而且前提是所有零件都能準時到貨。

Just like a college term paper, they're always late term papers, but you still have to have a deadline, and it needs to be real, one with consequences if a deadline is not met. But it absolutely will not, the probability of it occurring is incredibly low, of actually achieving on July 1, but nonetheless it is a date we have to take seriously. I explained that at some risk of this being misinterpreted, but hopefully you would appreciate that I'm trying to explain how it needs to work and has to work that way, there's no other way to do it.

就像大學學期論文一樣，它們總是遲交的，但你仍然需要有一個截止日期，而且必須是真實的，如果未能按時完成，就會產生後果。但這絕對不會發生，它發生的機率極低，實際上在7月1日實現，但無論如何，這是我們必須認真對待的日期。我解釋說，儘管這可能會被誤解，但希望你能理解，我正在努力解釋它需要如何運作，而且必須如此運作，沒有其他方法可以做到這一點。

And the things that help us get there are designing Model 3 for manufacturing, with manufacturing, engineering, and production, and supply chain all in a very close loop, and making sure that we designed the car to be easy to make. That we iterate with suppliers and ask them how, if we're giving them a design that's easy to make or one that's hard to make or how do we reduce risk, improve it, and make it easier to build.

幫助我們實現這一目標的因素在於，Model 3 的設計充分考慮了製造環節，將製造、工程、生產和供應鏈緊密結合，確保我們設計的汽車易於製造。我們會與供應商反覆溝通，詢問他們，我們給他們的設計是容易製造的還是難以製造的，或者我們如何降低風險、改進設計，使其更容易製造。

This is really fundamentally different from S and X. The S was the first car we really designed ourselves and it was all about just trying to make the car to work in the first place. X was basically built off of the S platform, but then even more complicated, so unfortunately, even harder to make.

這與 S 和 X 有著根本性的不同。 S 是我們真正自主設計的第一輛車，我們一開始就只想著讓它能跑起來。 X 基本上是基於 S 平台打造的，但比 S 平台更複雜，所以很遺憾，製造起來更難。

The Model 3 is the first car Tesla is creating that is designed to be easy to make. This is really a fundamental difference. And then I mentioned also increasing the scope of our in-house abilities, so that if there's a supplier that isn't able to deliver on time, we can scramble fast and produce that component in-house.

Model 3 是特斯拉首款以易於製造為設計理念的車款。這確實是一個根本性的區別。我還提到了提升我們內部生產能力的範圍，這樣如果供應商無法按時交貨，我們就可以快速回應，在內部生產該零件。

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

美國銀行的約翰‧墨菲。

Good afternoon, a first question on the capital needs. It looks like there's a little over $400 million left on the ABL and given the pre- orders or the reservations for the Model 3, it seems like you'll have at least another $400 million flowing in in the second quarter. So just curious, as you look at that kind of cash potential or liquidity and potential inflow, do you really think you need to do a capital raise this year, or could you get by with those sources of cash?

下午好，第一個問題是關於資金需求的。 ABL 似乎還剩下 4 億多美元，考慮到 Model 3 的預訂量，第二季似乎至少還會有 4 億美元流入。所以，我很好奇，考慮到這種現金潛力、流動性和潛在流入，您真的認為今年需要融資嗎？還是說，這些現金來源足以支撐您今年的融資？

I don't think we want to rely too much on customer reservation money as opposed to capital. Maybe there is a buffer or something but not as a primary source of capital. So it's going to make sense for us to raise some amount of money, some combination of equity and debt, and to make sure the company has a good buffer of cash on hand. I think it's important for de-risking the company.

我認為我們不應該過度依賴客戶預訂金，而應該依賴資本。或許可以留出一些緩衝資金，但不能作為主要的資金來源。因此，我們有必要籌集一些資金，以股權和債務相結合的方式，並確保公司擁有充足的現金緩衝。我認為這對降低公司的風險至關重要。

This is Jason, the only thing I'd add to that is, we did draw $430 million on the ABL this quarter. A lot of that was we had a large amount of cash in transit at the end of the quarter, our deliveries were a little bit back-end loaded, and as those cars were delivered in early April, we were able to pay a significant portion of that back.

我是傑森，我唯一想補充的是，本季我們確實在ABL上提取了4.3億美元。這很大程度上是因為本季末我們有大量現金在途，我們的交付有點拖後腿，而由於這些汽車在4月初就交付了，我們得以償還其中很大一部分。

Yes, I think most people are familiar with the Asset Backed Line, but it's important to say why is that different from general debt? Unlike other automotive companies, Tesla doesn't ship to dealers, we ship to customers. So we build the cars to order, the car is complete and it's going to a known customer.

是的，我想大多數人都熟悉資產支持額度，但有必要解釋一下它與一般債務有何不同？與其他汽車公司不同，特斯拉不會向經銷商出貨，而是直接向客戶出貨。所以我們按訂單生產汽車，汽車完成後，會交付給已知客戶。

So really the only risk associated with that is if like the ship sinks or something, or the truck that's carrying the cars crashes. But the ABL is, the Asset Backed Line is basically finished goods in transit to known customers. It's not like general corporate debt. It's I think more appropriately thought of as a slight increase in cost of goods sold.

所以，真正與之相關的唯一風險是，例如船沉了，或是載著汽車的卡車出了事故。但資產支持信貸額度（ABL）本質上是運送給已知客戶的成品。它不像一般的公司債務。我認為更恰當的說法是，銷售成本略有增加。

Okay, that's helpful. And then if I can ask just one follow-up from another question, as you look at the ramp with suppliers, is there any recourse to suppliers that don't meet that starter production next year, or any point of the production schedule, or is it really just you cancel the business and move on to another supplier?

好的，這很有幫助。然後，我可以就另一個問題再問一個後續問題嗎？當您考慮供應商產能提升時，如果供應商明年未能滿足初始產量要求，或未能按計畫完成任何生產任務，您是否有其他補救措施？還是說，您只能取消與供應商的業務，轉而選擇其他供應商？

We'll be asking for firm commitments from suppliers to meet that timeframe. And I'm meeting personally with the team from that supplier who is going to execute on the task, so I have not just the commitment of the CEO or general manager of that supplier, but the actual team that will execute on the product, and we want to confirm that we feel confident in the actual team, and basically we're asking for the A Team from the A supplier, and a commitment from that A Team that they intend to work harder than they ever have on any other program. And if they're willing to do that, then we work together. Otherwise, not.

我們將要求供應商做出堅定的承諾，以滿足該時間表。我正與負責執行這項任務的供應商團隊進行私人會面，因此我不僅獲得了該供應商執行長或總經理的承諾，還獲得了實際負責該產品的團隊的承諾。我們希望確認我們對該團隊充滿信心。我們要求A級供應商的A級團隊承諾，他們將比其他任何專案都更努力工作。如果他們願意，我們就會合作。否則，我們不會合作。

And recourse if they miss targets?

如果他們未能達到目標，該如何補救？

Yes. Along the way we will be assessing progress and our confidence level that suppliers will meet the July 1 target. If it looks like they will not, we'll have a conversation with them. If our comfort level drops below a certain level, they will not be a supplier to Tesla.

是的。在過程中，我們會評估進度，以及我們對供應商能否在7月1日前完成目標的信心程度。如果看起來他們無法實現目標，我們會與他們溝通。如果我們的信心水平低於一定水平，他們就不會成為特斯拉的供應商。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Rod Lache, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的羅德·拉赫 (Rod Lache)。

Hey everybody, a couple of questions. One, distribution and franchise laws in the US have always seemed like there are initiatives that are going to need to be dealt with at some point. Does this trajectory force the issue, or is this something you can accommodate even with the distribution constraints?

大家好，我有幾個問題。第一，美國的分銷和特許經營法律似乎總有一些措施需要在某個時候得到處理。這種發展軌跡是否迫使我們不得不這麼做？還是說，即使通路受到限制，你們也能適應這種情況？

First of all, it's worth emphasizing that the whole dealership thing only applies in the US. We don't carry that issue anywhere else in the world.

首先，值得強調的是，整個經銷商事宜只適用於美國。我們在世界其他地方都沒有這個問題。

What's happening is dealers are using a (inaudible) legislation that was originally put in for a just purpose, which is to protect them from predatory practices from the franchisor, and then using it for an unjust purpose which is to prevent direct distribution. We believe that in the long-term justice will prevail.

現在的情況是，經銷商正在利用一項（聽不清楚）立法，這項立法原本是為了正義的目的而製定的，旨在保護他們免受特許經營商的掠奪性行為的侵害，但現在卻被用來達到不正義的目的，即阻止直接分銷。我們相信，從長遠來看，正義終將伸張。

Okay. But is there a view that you can actually achieve this even under the constraints that exist today, or is that something that you do need to address in order to achieve this plan?

好的。但是，有沒有一種觀點認為，即使在目前存在的限制條件下，你們也能真正實現這一目標？或者說，為了實現這項計劃，你們確實需要解決一些問題？

We believe that that is not a constraint on our ability to achieve the plan.

我們相信這並不會限制我們實現計劃的能力。

Okay. The second question is, I'm assuming that concurrently with this plan there's kind of a longer-term plan for growth, and that there's going to be a Fremont Number 2, and I think you alluded to further expansion of Gigafactory. Can you give us a sense of what you're aspiring to in terms of the trajectory by the end of the decade as you've done before? And Jason, I know you didn't want to get into details on project spending, but it would be helpful just to pass along some thoughts on what needs to go into the company in terms of investment in order to get that sort of thing out.

好的。第二個問題是，我假設與這個計劃同時進行的，還有一項長期增長計劃，例如弗里蒙特二號工廠，我記得你提到了超級工廠的進一步擴建。你能像以前一樣，簡單介紹一下你們對2020年的發展軌跡的期望嗎？傑森，我知道你不想談論專案支出的細節，但為了實現這些目標，就公司需要投入哪些資金，分享一些想法會很有幫助。

Is it reasonable to assume that the new level of spending that we're seeing right now is something that we should assume as being a sustained level going forward?

我們是否可以合理地假設，我們現在看到的新支出水準是未來可持續的水平？

Sure. I don't want to go into the details of what we think the total capital cost is going to be for the Model 3 program, but certainly as we continue to ramp, there's going to be more capital requirements of the company. That's just a fact. Ideally I'd like to fund as much of that as possible with cash flow from operations, so that is really the focus that we have in the short-term.

當然。我不想詳細談論我們認為Model 3專案的總資本成本是多少，但隨著我們繼續加速生產，公司的資本需求肯定會增加。這是事實。理想情況下，我希望盡可能利用營運現金流來籌集資金，所以這確實是我們短期內的重點。

It's fair to say there's probably a 2020 target for volume is closer to a million vehicles in 2020, or something like that.

可以公平地說，2020 年的銷售目標可能接近 100 萬輛，或類似的數字。

Okay. Great, thank you.

好的。太好了，謝謝你。

Charlie Anderson, Dougherty.

查理安德森，多爾蒂。

Thanks for taking my question, just a two-parter on the Model 3 reservation holders. I imagine for many of them this was their first interaction with Tesla, and maybe the first time they went to a store. And I wonder as you've looked at that base if there is any potential to upsell to an S or X in the interim while they wait for their car, if you have a programs or plan to address that?

感謝您回答我的問題，我只想就 Model 3 預訂用戶的問題分成兩部分進行探討。我想，對很多人來說，這是他們第一次接觸特斯拉，甚至可能是第一次去實體店。我想知道，考慮到這些預訂用戶，在他們等待取車期間，是否有可能將他們升級到 Model S 或 Model X？您是否有相應的方案或計劃來解決這個問題？

And then secondarily, I was curious if you have any color on the geographic split of the reservation holders? Thanks.

其次，我想知道您是否了解預訂持有者的地理分佈？謝謝。

This is Jon. In terms of your first question on whether or not the reservation holders, this was their first interaction with Tesla, just about 93% of the reservation holders, this is their first interaction with Tesla. So it's a super, super majority of a new client base or customer base for Tesla and it's exciting.

我是喬恩。關於你的第一個問題，對於預訂者來說，這是否是他們第一次與特斯拉互動，大約93%的預訂者是第一次與特斯拉互動。所以，這對特斯拉來說，是一個巨大的新客戶群，這令人興奮。

It was exciting where we walked the lines, with people waiting in line at the stores, and they were excited to become part of the Tesla community and family. And the demographics of the owners, we're not going to say much about that, but they are a bit different as you can imagine than the Model S and the Model X owners to date. And it presents an exciting new market for Tesla as well. And it should be noted these folks are not interested just only in Tesla Motors, but also Tesla Energy, because the price point of the Tesla Powerwall is an accessible price point for many of these folks, and so they're expressing interest in both.

我們走在店裡排隊等候的人中間，感覺很興奮，他們很高興能成為特斯拉社區和大家庭的一員。至於車主的人口統計數據，我們不會透露太多，但你可以想像，他們與迄今為止的Model S和Model X車主略有不同。這也為特斯拉帶來了一個令人興奮的新市場。值得注意的是，這些人不僅對特斯拉汽車感興趣，還對特斯拉能源感興趣，因為特斯拉Powerwall的價格對許多人來說是可以負擔的，所以他們對兩者都感興趣。

In terms of S and X as a bridge to Model 3, we are talking through and thinking through that, because as Elon mentioned earlier, the quickest path to receiving a Model 3 is being a Tesla owner. We've agreed that Tesla owners are receiving priority in terms of production. And so you can run the math I just mentioned. It's 93% are new to Tesla and 7% of the reservation holders are Tesla owners and the fastest way to get a production vehicle even in 2017 is through Tesla ownership, and so we're finding that there's a good conversion rate of folks that are coming in to test drive an S or an X, who are Model 3 reservation holders, and are motivated to be Tesla owners now, so that they can receive their Model 3 earlier.

關於 S 和 X 作為 Model 3 的橋樑，我們正在討論和思考這個問題，因為正如 Elon 之前提到的，獲得 Model 3 的最快途徑是成為特斯拉車主。我們已經同意特斯拉車主在生產方面享有優先權。所以你可以計算一下我剛才提到的數字。 93% 是特斯拉新用戶，7% 的預訂者是特斯拉車主，即使在 2017 年，獲得量產車的最快方式也是透過擁有特斯拉。因此，我們發現，前來試駕 S 或 X 的顧客轉換率很高，他們都是 Model 3 預訂者，並且有動力現在就成為特斯拉車主，這樣他們就可以早點收到他們的 Model 3。

An important point worth mentioning, we were fairly worried about what would happen with the Model 3 announcement. Would it cause like some a big drop in, say, Model S sales? It seems to have had the opposite effect. It seems as though S demand has increased.

值得一提的是，我們之前相當擔心Model 3的發表會帶來什麼影響。它會導致Model S的銷售量大幅下滑嗎？結果似乎適得其反。 Model S的需求似乎增加。

It has increased. I think you saw the S demand number in the first quarter was 45% up year-over-year, and that demand continues.

它確實增長了。我想你也看到了，第一季S的需求年增了45%，而且這種需求還在持續。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Emmanuel Rosner, CLSA.

里昂證券的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to ask you guys about any early thoughts on the need for manufacturing extension? Obviously if you are doing 500,000 units by 2018, I think that's the original capacity of the Fremont plant, so do you need to start thinking about an additional plant, and in that context, any thoughts on the global expansion you were mentioning, obviously very strong increase in Model S orders in Asia, for example. Anything you could share with us at this point?

大家下午好。我想問一下，你們對於擴大產能有什麼初步想法嗎？如果你們打算在2018年實現50萬輛的產量，我想這已經是弗里蒙特工廠的現有產能了，那麼你們是否需要考慮增建工廠？另外，關於你們提到的全球擴張，例如亞洲Model S訂單的強勁成長，你們有什麼想法嗎？現在有什麼可以跟我們分享的嗎？

Our plans for international expansion and establishment of new plants are speculative. We haven't made any firm decisions. But some of the things are just sort of common sense that manufacturing cars in California and then shipping them all around the world is not a very efficient thing to do, particularly as you go to more affordable vehicles.

我們關於國際擴張和新工廠建設的計劃目前仍處於推測階段。我們還沒有做出任何最終決定。但有些事情是常識性的，那就是在加州生產汽車然後運往世界各地並不是一個高效的選擇，尤其是在汽車價格更實惠的情況下。

So at some point it's going to make sense to have a plant in Europe and a plant in China and probably plants in other parts of the world. So that's kind of the natural thing you'd expect to do. It wouldn't make sense to ship cars from California to Europe or California to Asia in those volumes. It's not an efficient way to go. And particularly as we saturate on Fremont volume in terms of satisfying demand in North America, just to satisfy demand in North America, for our future product lineup we're going to need more than one plant in North America, just to satisfy North America demand.

所以，到某個時候，在歐洲、中國各建一家工廠，甚至在世界其他地方也蓋一間工廠，都是合理的。所以，這很自然。把這麼多的汽車從加州運到歐洲，或是從加州運到亞洲，都是不合理的。這不是一個高效率的方案。尤其是在我們弗里蒙特工廠的產量已經飽和，無法滿足北美的需求的情況下，為了滿足北美的需求，為了我們未來的產品線，我們需要在北美建立不只一家工廠，才能滿足北美的需求。

Right, so when we think about these extra capital needs that you're alluding to, in addition to obviously the cost of the Model 3 development, are you also [campaigning] as part of that to raise the money for an extra factory to the extent that just beyond 2018 you would already need some extra capacity?

好的，那麼當我們考慮您所提到的這些額外資本需求時，除了 Model 3 開發成本之外，您是否也在為此籌集資金來建造一個額外的工廠，以至於在 2018 年之後您就已經需要一些額外的產能了？

I don't think we'll be raising money for new factories before we add volume production for the Model 3. And then as Jason was saying earlier, we'll try to find as much of this as possible from operating cash flow.

我認為，在增加 Model 3 的量產之前，我們不會為新工廠籌集資金。然後，正如 Jason 之前所說，我們會盡可能從營運現金流中籌集資金。

Got it, thank you.

知道了，謝謝。

Ben Callow, Robert W. Baird.

本·卡洛、羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

Thanks a lot, I have 18 questions. The first one I have, Model X production, where are we at right there, because we've got all these consumer reports issues, and I think that's a little backdated but can you talk to us about the [state] production of that? Number two on the Gigafactory and the battery size for the Model 3, I think everyone's dividing by 80 kilowatt hours or 75 kilowatt hours to the number of cars, and how do we think about actually the Model 3 battery size and what the Gigafactory could support?

非常感謝，我有18個問題。第一個問題，Model X的生產，我們現在處於什麼階段？因為我們有很多消費者報告的問題，我覺得這有點過時了，可以跟我們談談Model X的產量嗎？第二個問題，關於超級工廠和Model 3的電池容量，我覺得大家都在用80千瓦時或75千瓦時除以汽車數量，那麼我們該如何考慮Model 3的電池容量以及超級工廠的容量呢？

And then the third question is why is Bob Lutz and Jim Chanos, they keep on saying such negative things about you guys? What do you have to do to get the dissenters to actually believe in Tesla a little bit? Thank you.

第三個問題是，為什麼鮑伯·盧茨和吉姆·查諾斯一直對你們發表負面評論？你們需要做些什麼才能讓反對者真正相信特斯拉？謝謝。

I feel confident that we are going to hit the 2,000 vehicle a week target by the end of this quarter, of which on the order of 40% are X. That's our internal plan and what we expect to meet.

我有信心，到本季末我們將達到每週 2,000 輛汽車的目標，其中約 40% 是 X。這是我們的內部計劃，也是我們期望實現的目標。

There's no question the X is a very difficult car to manufacture. I think unquestionably the most difficult car to manufacture in the world and Bob Lutz would agree with that. I think he said something to the effect that he thought it wasn't manufacturable, or something like that. It's certainly manufacturable, it's just a hard thing to (inaudible) for.

毫無疑問，X 是一款非常難製造的車。我認為它無疑是世界上最難製造的汽車，Bob Lutz 也會同意這一點。我記得他好像說過類似「他認為這輛車無法製造」之類的話。它當然可以製造，只是製造起來比較困難（聽不清楚）。

So we have some internal milestones that we've achieved that I'm pretty excited about. Friday at 3am we achieved our first flawless production of the Model X, where we went through the whole production process and had zero issues, that was a great milestone.

我們實現了幾個內部里程碑，這讓我非常興奮。週五凌晨3點，我們實現了Model X的首次完美投產，整個生產過程零問題，這是一個偉大的里程碑。

[Background Noise] Celebrating with the team at 3am Friday was great. Now we're starting to get several in a row that are flawless and -- [Background Noise] -- very quickly, and [we] feel pretty good about the trajectory of that fact.

[背景噪音] 週五凌晨3點和團隊一起慶祝真是太棒了。現在我們開始連續幾個任務都完美無缺，而且——[背景噪音]——進展非常快，[我們]對這一進展感到非常滿意。

As for convincing all the naysayers, that will basically be never. There's always going to be naysayers. [Background Noise] What I find ironic about the naysayers is the very same people will transition from saying it was impossible to saying it was obvious. [Laughter]

至於說服所有反對者，那基本上是永遠不可能的。反對者總是存在的。 [背景噪音] 我覺得諷刺的是，反對者會從說不可能變成說顯而易見。 [笑聲]

I'm like, wait a second. Was it obvious or impossible? It can't be both.

我心想，等一下。這事兒是顯而易見的還是不可能的？不可能兩者兼而有之。

Got it. And the Model 3 battery, we're all analysts here. We stare down a straw, dividing by 75 kilowatt hours. Is that the right thing to do with the Model 3, or should we have a lower number like 40 kilowatts or 45?

明白了。至於 Model 3 的電池，我們都是分析師。我們盯著吸管，除以 75 千瓦時。對 Model 3 來說，這個數字正確嗎？還是應該用更低的數字，例如 40 千瓦或 45 千瓦？

And then you've got the guy with the Volt making that car, saying that it's going to be ahead of you guys and sell for cheaper than you, and so how do I think about GM being able to make a car cheaper than you, versus making a margin on a Tesla with a lower battery cost? If that makes sense.

然後，你看到製造Volt的人說，Volt會領先你們，售價比你們更便宜。那麼，我怎麼能想像通用汽車能造出比你們更便宜的汽車，而不是靠電池成本更低的特斯拉賺取利潤呢？如果這說得通的話。

We're not going to get into real specifics on battery pack size, but I think it's fair to say the average battery size for the 3 will be less than 75 kilowatt hours.

我們不會詳細討論電池組的尺寸，但我認為可以公平地說，3 款車的平均電池尺寸將小於 75 千瓦時。

I'm sorry, what was that?

抱歉，那是什麼？

The average energy content of a 3 pack is still going to be less than 75 kilowatt hours. It doesn't really need to be anywhere near 75 killowatt hours to achieve the range of 215 miles. We don't want to get into the nitty-gritty, it's probably unwise.

三個電池組的平均能量含量仍會低於75千瓦時。要達到215英哩的續航里程，其實並不需要接近75度電。我們不想深入探討細節，這可能不太明智。

You probably don't need to fixate on the 35 gigawatt hours. We're planning the Gigafactory to meet the production needs of the energy that we know the cars will need. So there's not a problem in scaling that as we need to, so obviously internally, we know the math and we know what we need to do and we're on track to do it.

你可能不需要糾結於35千兆瓦時。我們規劃的超級工廠能夠滿足我們所知汽車所需的能源生產需求。因此，按需求進行規模擴張完全沒有問題。顯然，在內部，我們了解計算，也知道需要做什麼，而且我們正在按計劃進行。

I guess my 18th question is, I'm not a car guy, so I have you guys having 40,000 units of the Model 3 in 2017. From your commentary, it seems like I need to raise my numbers, but how do I think about that ramp up from zero to 500,000 over, let's push it from 2018 on? Does it go from zero to 500,000 over two years or one year or how do we think about that?

我的第18個問題是，我不是汽車迷，所以你們在2017年已經生產了4萬輛Model 3。從你的評論來看，我似乎需要提高產量，但我該如何考慮從零到50萬輛的增速？假設從2018年開始？是兩年內從零到50萬輛，還是一年內？或者我們該如何規劃？

Obviously if we're saying that Tesla will have total vehicle production on the order of 500,000 cars in 2018, [can't] be more than two years to get there.

顯然，如果我們說特斯拉 2018 年的汽車總產量將達到 50 萬輛，那麼實現這一目標需要兩年以上的時間。

Production ramps look like an S-curve. It's extremely difficult to predict with precision the early part of the S-curve. In the early part of the S-curve, it starts off very slow and then it increases exponentially, moves to a linear, and then moves to a logarithmic. So it's really (technical difficulties)incredibly difficult to predict exactly what the shape of that S-curve is.

生產爬坡看起來像一條S曲線。要精確預測S曲線的早期階段極為困難。在S曲線的早期階段，它開始時非常緩慢，然後呈指數級增長，最終變為線性增長，最後變為對數增長。因此，要準確預測S曲線的形狀真的（技術難題）極為困難。

And that's where things get tricky, because you end up putting quarterly results kind of [bracketing] somewhere on that S-curve, and depending on where you are in that S-curve, it can actually look like a big difference, but actually it could be a shift of a (technical difficulties)because of the exponential nature the beginning of the S-curve.

這就是事情變得棘手的地方，因為你最終會把季度結果放在 S 曲線的某個位置，而且根據你在 S 曲線上的位置，它實際上可能看起來有很大的差異，但實際上它可能是一個（技術難題）的轉變，因為 S 曲線的開頭是指數性質的。

My 19th question, can you make 15% gross margin on it, or 20% gross margin, or how do you think about margin on it, because people think you can't make it (technical difficulties)profitably.

我的第 19 個問題是，您能否從中獲得 15% 的毛利率，或者 20% 的毛利率，或者您如何看待它的利潤率，因為人們認為您無法透過（技術困難）獲利。

We're highly confident that it can be made profitably, and design for manufacturing and economies of scale are the keys to achieving that outcome.

我們非常有信心它可以實現盈利，而面向製造的設計和規模經濟是實現這一結果的關鍵。

GM is not aiming for anything near the volumes that we are. And despite being a big company, their economies of scale are going to be driven by whatever elements are unique in their EV, and we know for a fact that they will not get the economies of scale that we will be at for Model 3.

通用汽車的目標銷售量遠不及我們。儘管通用汽車是一家大公司，但他們的規模經濟將由其電動車的獨特元素驅動，而我們確信，他們無法達到我們Model 3那樣的規模經濟。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Dana Hall, Bloomberg News.

達娜‧霍爾，彭博新聞社。

Hi. What is the mix in 2018 of the 500,000 cars? It's combined S, X, and 3. Should we think of it as like 300,000 3, or what's the mix of those three vehicles?

你好。 2018年這50萬輛汽車的配置比例是多少？是S、X和3的混合體。我們該把它看作30萬輛3系列車型嗎？還是這三款車的配置比例是多少？

I don't think we've got an amazing crystal ball to figure out exactly what it's going to be. I feel confident about the topline number, but the mix internally, it is difficult to figure that out. Maybe it's something like 100,000 to 150,000 S and X, and then maybe [300,000 to 400,000] of 3, I don't know. It's really hard to say.

我覺得我們並沒有神奇的水晶球來預測最終的銷售量。我對營收數字很有信心，但內部的銷售組合很難預測。也許是10萬到15萬輛S和X，然後可能是30萬到40萬輛，我不知道。真的很難說。

Hard to say? Okay. And then if you try to attract top manufacturing talent as you begin to ramp, have you given any thought to trying to hire a COO? I'm just thinking about your personal life between Tesla and SpaceX and sleeping in a sleeping bag and working 90 hours a week between two companies. SpaceX has a great COO and has had one since the company, for years, but Tesla never has.

很難說？好吧。那麼，如果你們在開始加速發展時試圖吸引頂尖製造業人才，你們有沒有考慮過聘請營運長？我只是在想你在特斯拉和SpaceX之間的個人生活，睡在睡袋裡，每週在兩家公司工作90小時。 SpaceX有一位很棒的營運官，而且從公司成立以來一直如此，但特斯拉從來沒有。

The scope of Tesla's present activity is broader than SpaceX. SpaceX is more of a pure technology company and does not have the sales, service, and fleet management and customer financing and all that sort of stuff that Tesla has. Obviously Jon McNeill has that role at Tesla.

特斯拉目前的業務範圍比SpaceX更廣。 SpaceX更像是純粹的科技公司，不像特斯拉那樣擁有銷售、服務、車隊管理、客戶融資等所有業務。顯然，喬恩·麥克尼爾在特斯拉擔任這些職位。

My focus is primarily on technology, design, and manufacturing. So I think we certainly can expect there will be announcements in the future about some great executives joining the ranks.

我主要關注技術、設計和製造。所以我認為我們完全可以期待未來會有優秀的主管加入。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Phil LeBeau, CNBC.

Phil LeBeau，CNBC。

Hi Elon, I have a question, it was about 10 minutes ago, you made reference to 1 million vehicles in 2020. Is that a production target, a production goal, or a hypothetical? I'm just looking for some clarification there.

你好，埃隆，我有個問題。大約10分鐘前，你提到2020年要生產100萬輛汽車。這是生產目標、生產計劃，還是假設？我只是想問清楚。

That's my best guess. If we're 0.5 million in 2018 and roughly 50%-ish growth from there, then it's probably around 1 million in 2020.

這是我的最佳預測。如果2018年我們的用戶數是50萬，之後的成長速度大概是50%左右，那麼到2020年大概會達到100萬左右。

And do you have an estimate as to how many production plants you will need in order to make that happen?

您是否估計過需要多少個生產工廠才能實現這一目標？

I think it is actually feasible, maybe not advisable, but feasible to do it with just Fremont and the Gigafactory. We actually believe that the Fremont and the Gigafactory could scale to a 1million vehicles. Whether that's actually wise is a separate question.

我認為這實際上是可行的，或許不明智，但僅靠弗里蒙特和超級工廠來實現是可行的。我們確實相信弗里蒙特和超級工廠可以擴大到100萬輛的產能。至於這是否明智，則是另一個問題。

As I said earlier, it's going to make sense to do localized production at least on a continent basis, otherwise your logistics costs end up being quite extreme. Your logistics costs start becoming a bigger and bigger percentage of total vehicle costs. That's really why manufacturers build their cars for a local market, they build cars for a market in that market because logistics costs associated with shipping 1.5 ton to 2 ton vehicles are massively the greater than, say, shipping a little consumer electronics device.

正如我之前所說，至少在一個大洲範圍內進行本地化生產是合理的，否則你的物流成本最終會非常高。你的物流成本在汽車總成本中所佔的比例會越來越大。這就是為什麼製造商會為當地市場生產汽車，他們為當地市場生產汽車，因為運輸1.5噸到2噸重的汽車的物流成本遠高於運輸一件小型消費性電子設備。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Alex Sage, Reuters.

路透社亞歷克斯·塞奇（Alex Sage）。

Hi, can you hear me? Elon, you say that you're calling out to the best minds of manufacturing to join Tesla, but at the same time Google and Apple are giving out the same call. I wonder what you would say to these people to have them join Tesla over these other companies?

嗨，你聽得到我說話嗎？伊隆，你說你正在呼籲製造業的頂尖人才加入特斯拉，但同時，谷歌和蘋果也在發出同樣的呼籲。我想知道你會對這些人說些什麼，讓他們加入特斯拉而不是其他公司？

The second question is whether you had any takeaways in terms of your suppliers in terms of this Hoerbiger experience, and how you can hold these suppliers' feet to the fire on some of these more complicated tasks that they're asked to fulfill?

第二個問題是，就賀爾碧格的這次經驗而言，您對供應商有什麼啟示嗎？您如何對這些供應商進行督促，讓他們完成一些更複雜的任務？

In response to your first question, I'm not sure you're appreciating -- Apple and Google do not manufacture things themselves.

回答你的第一個問題，我不確定你是否理解——蘋果和谷歌自己並不生產產品。

Right, but they are hiring manufacturing people.

是的，但是他們正在招募製造人員。

To do what?

做什麼？

That's a good question, but they are hiring manufacturing people, people with manufacturing experience.

這是個好問題，但他們正在招募製造人員，具有製造經驗的人員。

Tesla believes strongly in making things, they do not. That's fine. It's a philosophical difference.

特斯拉堅信要創造產品，但他們不這麼做。這沒關係，只是理念上的差異。

We believe that manufacturing technology is itself subject to [transmatter] innovation, and in fact we believe that there's more potential for innovation in manufacturing, than there is in the design of the car by a long shot. Now this is just a philosophical difference. Perhaps we are wrong. But we believe in manufacturing and we believe that a company that values manufacturing as highly as we do is going to attract the best minds in manufacturing.

我們相信製造技術本身就受[transmatter]創新的影響，事實上，我們相信製造業的創新潛力遠大於汽車設計。這只是一個理念上的差異。也許我們錯了。但我們相信製造業，我們相信像我們這樣重視製造業的公司能夠吸引製造業的頂尖人才。

Okay.

好的。

I think that's all the time we have.

我想這就是我們所擁有的全部時間了。

The supplier question?

供應商問題？

I don't understand who you are referring to.

我不明白你指的是誰。

Hoerbiger?

賀爾碧格？

Not familiar with that name.

不熟悉這個名字。

We're certainly going to do our best to ensure that we have high confidence in the suppliers on the Model 3 program. Those that didn't perform very well on, say, prior programs are unlikely to be selected for the Model 3 program.

我們當然會竭盡全力確保對 Model 3 專案的供應商充滿信心。那些在先前專案中表現不佳的供應商不太可能被選中參與 Model 3 專案。

At this time I would like to turn it back to Mr. Jeff Evanson for any closing remarks.

現在我想請傑夫·埃文森先生做最後發言。

Thank you everyone for joining us today. We'll talk to you in a quarter. Bye bye.

感謝大家今天的收看。我們第一季後再聊。再見。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may now all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

今天的會議到此結束。現在大家可以放下手機，享受美好的一天。