特斯拉 (TSLA) 2015 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for your patience. You have joined Tesla Motors, Incorporated, fourth-quarter 2015 financial results Q&A conference call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天。感謝您的耐心等待。您已加入特斯拉汽車公司 2015 年第四季度財務業績問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Jeffrey Evanson. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人 Jeffrey Evanson 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Latiffe, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's fourth-quarter and full-year 2015 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla Chairman and CEO; JB Straubel, our CTO; CFO Jason Wheeler; and John McNeil, President of Global Sales, Service, and Delivery.

謝謝你，Latiffe，大家下午好。歡迎收聽特斯拉 2015 年第四季度和全年的問答網絡直播。今天，特斯拉董事長兼首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 加入了我的行列； JB Straubel，我們的首席技術官；首席財務官傑森·惠勒；以及全球銷售、服務和交付總裁 John McNeil。

Our Q4 results are announced in the update letter at the same link as this webcast. As usual, this letter includes GAAP and non-GAAP financial information, and reconciliations between the two.

我們的第四季度業績在與本次網絡廣播相同的鏈接的更新信中公佈。像往常一樣，這封信包括 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務信息，以及兩者之間的對賬。

During our call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 表格中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

We're going to start today's call with some comments by Elon and then Jason. Then we'll go into the Q&A session. I would ask everyone that during the Q&A session you try to constrain yourselves to one question and one follow-up so we can give everyone fair time on the call.

我們將從 Elon 和 Jason 的一些評論開始今天的電話會議。然後我們將進入問答環節。我會問大家，在問答環節中，你們盡量將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上，這樣我們就可以在電話會議上給每個人公平的時間。

With that, I will turn it over to you, Elon.

有了這個，我會把它交給你，埃隆。

Thank you. I think the newsletter largely speaks for itself, but I'll add some commentary on some of the lead points. Obviously we had a huge increase in Model S deliveries year on year in Q4 last year, going up 76%. We had a huge change in our core operational cash flow, which you can really see in the chart. It's really quite dramatic. That's why I think it's interesting to look at in chart form. It goes from negative to significantly positive in Q4 last year.

謝謝你。我認為時事通訊在很大程度上不言自明，但我會就一些主要觀點添加一些評論。顯然，去年第四季度我們的 Model S 交付量同比大幅增長，增長了 76%。我們的核心運營現金流發生了巨大變化，您可以在圖表中看到這一點。這真的很戲劇化。這就是為什麼我認為以圖表的形式來看很有趣。去年第四季度，它從負數變為顯著正數。

Then we made modest improvements in Model S gross margin, gained to about 25% excluding one-time items. I feel pretty good about where we're tracking to probably get close to 30% by late Q4 of this year.

然後，我們對 Model S 的毛利率進行了適度的改進，不包括一次性項目，增長到了 25% 左右。我對我們在今年第四季度末可能接近 30% 的跟踪目標感到非常滿意。

Then something I am presently quite excited about is that we expect to be positive cash flow starting next month, and then continuing on into Q2 and beyond. There's one caveat there. That's including the asset back line. The S back line, that's funding for cars that are en route to customers. Particularly as our sales to international markets increases, there is more finished goods inventory on its way to customers. Inclusive of the asset back line, which really I think is most accurately regarded as a slight decrease in the gross margin of the car by about roughly 0.1%, or thereabouts. Apart from that, we were positive cash flow.

然後我目前非常興奮的是，我們預計從下個月開始將出現正現金流，然後繼續到第二季度及以後。有一個警告。這包括資產後備線。 S back line，這是為正在運送給客戶的汽車提供的資金。特別是隨著我們對國際市場的銷售增加，有更多的成品庫存正在運送給客戶。包括資產回饋線，我認為最準確的認為是汽車毛利率略有下降約 0.1% 左右，或大約。除此之外，我們是正現金流。

Then we are expecting to be profitable for 2016 on a non-GAAP basis. I personally think that that is the correct way to think, to look at it, because of the way GAAP treats lease accounting. Nonetheless, despite the lease accounting stuff, we anticipate it being profitable by GAAP's numbers in Q4 of this year.

然後，我們預計 2016 年將在非公認會計原則基礎上實現盈利。我個人認為這是正確的思考方式和看待它的方式，因為 GAAP 對待租賃會計的方式。儘管如此，儘管租賃會計的東西，我們預計它在今年第四季度的 GAAP 數字是有利可圖的。

We're really looking forward to the unveiling of the Model 3 at the end of next month. I think this is going to be really well received, and then getting into production and delivery at the end of next year.

我們非常期待下月底 Model 3 的發布。我認為這將非常受歡迎，然後在明年年底投入生產和交付。

Touching on a few things better in the bulk of the newsletter, I think the chart on vehicle demand is really interesting. To the degree this represents a microcosm of how Tesla vehicles will be received in other vehicle segments, it augurs extremely well for the future.

在通訊的大部分內容中更好地觸及了一些事情，我認為關於車輛需求的圖表真的很有趣。在某種程度上，這代表了特斯拉汽車將如何在其他汽車領域受到歡迎的一個縮影，它預示著未來非常好。

The Model S was the best selling premium sedan in the United States last year of any kind. Our sales actually increased by 51%, whereas everybody else was -- sales declined. The overall market segment declined by about 1%. I think this is -- it's really rare to see situations like this. I think this is despite us being really quite under-penetrated in the northeast. I think there's a lot of room for growth in the northeast particularly of the US, and in international markets in general.

Model S 是去年美國最暢銷的高檔轎車。我們的銷售額實際上增長了 51%，而其他人都是——銷售額下降了。整個細分市場下降了約 1%。我認為這是 - 很少看到這樣的情況。我認為這是儘管我們在東北部的滲透率確實很低。我認為東北地區尤其是美國以及整個國際市場都有很大的增長空間。

Essentially, getting to 25% market share of all premium sedans in the US is, I think, a great achievement of the Tesla team. I think it's also great for the world, because it means -- that's 25,000 fewer gas guzzlers that are on the road. I would like to thank all the customers that went out and bought that car, because I think they're making a difference for the environment, and of course they're helping pay for the future development of the Model 3, which is the more affordable mass-market car. That's where we put all of the revenue we received from the Model S and X. It's always a point to bear that in mind, that S and X power pay for the Model 3.

從本質上講，我認為，在美國所有高檔轎車中佔據 25% 的市場份額是特斯拉團隊的一項偉大成就。我認為這對世界也很好，因為這意味著——路上的耗油量減少了 25,000 人。我要感謝所有出去買那輛車的客戶，因為我認為他們正在為環境做出貢獻，當然他們正在幫助為 Model 3 的未來開發買單，這更負擔得起的大眾市場汽車。這就是我們從 Model S 和 X 獲得的所有收入的地方。始終要牢記這一點，S 和 X 的動力為 Model 3 買單。

One additional note is that Tesla does not advertise. We don't pay for any endorsements. We do not discount our cars for anyone, including me. I pay full retail price. Whereas those actions are -- all of our competitors take those actions. That's, I think, quite interesting. We also have far fewer sales outlets than our competitors.

另外需要注意的是，特斯拉不做廣告。我們不為任何代言付費。我們不會為任何人（包括我）打折我們的汽車。我支付全零售價。而這些行動是——我們所有的競爭對手都採取了這些行動。我認為這很有趣。我們的銷售網點也比競爭對手少得多。

Essentially, there's a lot of degrees of freedom that we are not exercising that we could in theory exercise. I think -- if you look at the text, it's worth noting that this is not just uniquely true in the United States. In Switzerland, we out-sold -- the Model S out-sold the Mercedes S class, the BMW 7 Series, Porsche Panamera, and the AUDI 8 combined; and also out-sold the Mercedes E class. In Germany, we out-sold the Porsche Panamera.

從本質上講，有很多我們沒有行使的自由度，我們可以在理論上行使。我認為——如果你看一下文本，值得注意的是，這不僅在美國是獨一無二的。在瑞士，我們的銷量超過了——Model S 的銷量超過了梅賽德斯 S 級、寶馬 7 系、保時捷 Panamera 和奧迪 8 的總和；並且還超過了梅賽德斯E級。在德國，我們的銷量超過了保時捷 Panamera。

I think these are pretty good situations, even in places that have no incentives. Obviously, incentives are certainly helpful. They're a catalyst for sales. Tesla's always appreciated incentives, and I think they make a difference in accelerating the advent of electric vehicles. But sometimes incentives are characterized as, it's all about incentives or not at all about incentives. It's really important to appreciate that incentives are an accelerant. That's the reality of them.

我認為這些都是很好的情況，即使在沒有激勵措施的地方也是如此。顯然，激勵措施肯定是有幫助的。它們是銷售的催化劑。特斯拉一直受到讚賞的激勵措施，我認為它們在加速電動汽車的出現方面發揮了作用。但有時激勵措施的特點是，這完全是關於激勵措施，或者根本不是關於激勵措施。意識到激勵措施是一種促進劑，這一點非常重要。這就是他們的現實。

Jason, do you want to add anything?

傑森，你想補充什麼嗎？

Absolutely, thanks Elon. First of all, I look forward to working with everybody. I'm super-excited to be here, as excited I was on the first day I walked through the door.

當然，謝謝埃隆。首先，我期待與大家合作。我非常興奮來到這裡，就像我走進門的第一天一樣興奮。

Three quick things I want to touch on real quick. Number one, gross margin. Lots of moving parts this quarter. Let me walk you guys through it a little bit. We had over $67 million in Model X ramp-up costs and non-recurring items in the quarter, as Elon mentioned. Correcting for these items, automotive, gross margin, excluding XEV credits would have been 25%.

我想快速談三件事。第一，毛利率。本季度有很多活動部件。讓我帶你們了解一下。正如 Elon 所說，本季度我們的 Model X 升級成本和非經常性項目超過 6700 萬美元。校正這些項目，汽車，毛利率，不包括 XEV 積分將是 25%。

First thing, the major component here is labor and overhead and depreciation related to the Model X launch. The way for you all to think about this is towards the end of Q3 and into Q4, we had to bring the work force into the factory to build these wonderful vehicles. Also, soon as starter production starts, the clock starts hitting on depreciation, as well. That's what's going on there. We also had some asset impairments, one with our old paint shop. We've now got a state-of-the-art paint shop in place, which is going to give us the capacity that we need all the way through Model 3.

首先，這裡的主要組成部分是與 Model X 發布相關的人工、間接費用和折舊。大家思考這個問題的方式是在第三季度末到第四季度，我們必須將勞動力帶入工廠來製造這些出色的車輛。此外，一旦啟動器生產開始，時鐘也會開始折舊。這就是那裡發生的事情。我們也有一些資產減值，其中之一是我們的舊油漆店。我們現在擁有一家最先進的噴漆車間，這將為我們提供從 Model 3 開始一直需要的能力。

That's 10,000 cars a week, too.

這也是每週 10,000 輛汽車。

Yes, 10,000 cars a week. This is a good story. These are assets that we had purchased -- go all the way back to the Nummi days. We got every bit of life out of those assets as we possibly could.

是的，每週 10,000 輛汽車。這是一個好故事。這些是我們購買的資產——可以追溯到 Nummi 時代。我們盡可能地從這些資產中獲得了生命的每一點。

The other big piece here is we had an E&O write-off, excess and obsolescence. This is a result of better production control and inventory management systems that we put in place. The place is moving really fast and we took some time. Elon talked about this in Q2 on the earnings call during the shut down, putting better systems in place to track this. We're moving to a place where we're tracking E&O on a real-time basis, and bringing those facts to the table when we're making decisions. We shouldn't be in this position again.

這裡的另一個重要部分是我們進行了 E&O 註銷、過剩和過時。這是我們實施了更好的生產控制和庫存管理系統的結果。這個地方移動得非常快，我們花了一些時間。埃隆在第二季度關閉期間的財報電話會議上談到了這一點，並建立了更好的系統來跟踪這一點。我們正在搬到一個實時跟踪 E&O 的地方，並在我們做出決策時將這些事實擺在桌面上。我們不應該再次處於這個位置。

Next thing I wanted to talk about real quickly was cash flow. Elon covered this. I think the chart on the face of the shareholder letter really gets there. We were within striking distance of positive operating cash flows (inaudible). When you add back the leasing proceeds that we get, $209 million, it's a great step-change in the right direction to getting us to net cash flow positive.

接下來我想快速談論的是現金流。埃隆涵蓋了這一點。我認為股東信正面的圖表確實可以到達那裡。我們與正的經營現金流（聽不清）相差無幾。當您加回我們獲得的 2.09 億美元的租賃收益時，這是朝著正確方向邁出的一大步，使我們的淨現金流為正。

Also, CapEx we guided at $500 million last quarter on the call, and we closed out at $411 million for the quarter. That all resulted in the ending cash balance being at $1.2 billion, which I think showcases our strong improvement in cash management and discipline in the Company.

此外，我們在上個季度的電話會議上指導資本支出為 5 億美元，而我們本季度的收盤價為 4.11 億美元。這一切導致期末現金餘額為 12 億美元，我認為這表明我們在公司的現金管理和紀律方面取得了顯著進步。

Finally, really quickly talk about capital structure. We closed the warehouse line that we previously had before and opened the ABL, as Elon mentioned. Think of this as a shift to lower-cost financing. We've got a better deal on this line. I think it's a better way to think about that.

最後，真的很快談談資本結構。正如 Elon 所說，我們關閉了之前的倉庫線並打開了 ABL。將此視為向低成本融資的轉變。我們在這條線上有更好的交易。我認為這是一種更好的思考方式。

Intended uses, one, we'll continue to monetize our direct leases as we did with the warehouse line; but it also creates an option for us to finance our ramp in FGI as the Model X hits full production scale.

預期用途，一，我們將繼續將我們的直接租賃貨幣化，就像我們對倉庫線所做的那樣；但它也為我們提供了一個選擇，以便在 Model X 達到全面生產規模時為 FGI 的坡道提供資金。

I'll close by saying my mandate from Elon is clear. Cash is king. There's some real steps that we're taking as a Company to get ourselves to net cash flow positive for the year.

最後，我要說 Elon 的任務很明確。現金為王。作為一家公司，我們正在採取一些真正的步驟，以使自己今年的淨現金流為正。

And profitability.

和盈利能力。

And profitability. One more is capital efficiency in CapEx. CapEx in 2016, as we said in the past, will be less than it was in 2015. We started to see some of this in Q4. It will continue. We're also getting to a point where we have operating leverage in the business. We'll continue to aggressively manage our growth and expenses.

和盈利能力。另一個是資本支出的資本效率。正如我們過去所說，2016 年的資本支出將低於 2015 年。我們在第四季度開始看到其中的一些。它將繼續。我們也達到了在業務中擁有經營槓桿的地步。我們將繼續積極管理我們的增長和開支。

Finally, and I walk around and I'm on this every day. It's the relentless focus on automotive unit cost reductions. That's my mandate. Again, I'm happy to be here. Elon, if you've got nothing else, we go to Q&A.

最後，我四處走走，我每天都在做這個。這是對降低汽車單位成本的不懈關注。這是我的任務。再次，我很高興來到這裡。 Elon，如果你沒有別的東西，我們去問答。

Yes, actually, one other point that's interesting to note, Tesla is approximately doubling its cumulative sales every year. This is -- I'm not sure if this has happened in the car industry for maybe a century. We started the beginning of last year with 50,000 cars one the road, then we ended with 100,000. This year we're maybe 60% to 80%. We're at the high end of the range. Again, potentially double the size of the fleet. I think that is pretty exciting and unusual.

是的，實際上，還有一點值得注意，特斯拉每年的累計銷售額大約翻了一番。這是 - 我不確定這是否已經在汽車行業發生了一個世紀。去年年初，我們在一條道路上擁有 50,000 輛汽車，然後我們以 100,000 輛汽車結束。今年我們可能是 60% 到 80%。我們處於該範圍的高端。同樣，有可能使機隊規模擴大一倍。我認為這是非常令人興奮和不尋常的。

Thank you. Let's go to Q&A.

謝謝你。讓我們去問答吧。

All right, Latiffe. Let's take the first question, please.

好吧，拉蒂夫。請讓我們回答第一個問題。

Yes sir. Our first question comes from the line of Brian Johnson of Barclays.

是的先生。我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Welcome, Jason. I want to ask a couple questions revolving around the cash flow. I'm sure people will go into some of the X ramp and delivery numbers. First, you produced about 14,000. You delivered 17,000 vehicles. That would imply 3,443 reduction in finished goods, at least S inventory, which could generate $250 million, yet your inventory is roughly flat quarter over quarter. What, before we get the K and the Q, are the puts and takes there?

歡迎，傑森。我想問幾個關於現金流的問題。我相信人們會進入一些 X 坡道和交付數量。首先，您生產了大約 14,000 個。您交付了 17,000 輛汽車。這意味著成品減少了 3,443 件，至少是 S 庫存，這可能產生 2.5 億美元，但您的庫存與季度環比大致持平。在我們得到 K 和 Q 之前，什麼是看跌期權？

I think you touched on it. We managed to do a really nice job selling inventory cars at the end of the year.

我想你觸及了它。我們在年底銷售庫存汽車時做得非常好。

But on the balance sheet the inventory number in cash and inventory stayed about the same?

但在資產負債表上，現金和存貨的存貨數量大致相同嗎？

There' a couple things going on in there. One is the finished goods, but also -- doing a nice job on the finished goods inventory, but also the ramp-up of the parts that we need to get full production with Model X.

裡面發生了幾件事。一個是成品，而且——在成品庫存方面做得很好，還有我們需要通過 Model X 進行全面生產的零件的增加。

Okay, so, it's the work in process on the X. Second, can you refresh, can you update us, given the change from the revolver to the ABL? What is currently drawn on the ABL? What's the available borrowing base? How much of that is, as you think about next year, going to be used to support increased on-balance sheet leasing versus increases in finished goods inventory? What's your remaining -- if the banks were to come -- borrowing base left would be left unpledged?

好的，所以，這是 X 上正在進行的工作。第二，你能刷新一下嗎，你能更新我們，考慮到從左輪手槍到 ABL 的變化嗎？目前在 ABL 上繪製了什麼？可用的借款基礎是多少？正如您明年所想的那樣，其中有多少將用於支持增加的資產負債表租賃而不是增加成品庫存？你還剩下多少——如果銀行來了——剩餘的借貸基礎將沒有抵押？

Where we closed Q4 at, $135 million, fully drawn on it. In terms of the borrowing base, there's a lot of detailed numbers behind that. The most important thing to point out here is the increase to $1 billion that we did with our banking partners. Then there's some restrictions there, and we don't want to max that out, so we're going to monitor it carefully and make sure we do the things to do. We don't want to live on this drug.

我們第四季度的收盤價為 1.35 億美元，完全利用了它。就借款基數而言，背後有很多詳細的數字。這裡要指出的最重要的事情是我們與銀行合作夥伴一起增加了 10 億美元。然後那裡有一些限制，我們不想把它最大化，所以我們要仔細監控它並確保我們做事情要做。我們不想靠這種藥過活。

Yes, we have a collection of lenders. It's hypothetically, if one lender were to decide not to split the ABL, then it's distributed. So it's not -- there's not a single [panacea]. And we found that the appetite with lenders is very strong for the ABL because it's a finished product that's going to a known customer. There's no channel to stuff because there is no channel. It's just [off] in transit to customers, primarily overseas.

是的，我們有很多貸方。假設，如果一個貸方決定不拆分 ABL，那麼它就會被分配。所以它不是——沒有一個單一的[靈丹妙藥]。我們發現貸款人對 ABL 的興趣非常強烈，因為它是一個成品，將提供給一個知名客戶。因為沒有渠道，所以沒有渠道。它只是在運送給客戶的途中，主要是在海外。

Yes, it grows with the inventory balance against cars that have orders placed against them.

是的，它隨著針對已下訂單的汽車的庫存餘額而增長。

It sounds like you could draw it, even if inventory, finished goods of inventory was flat, could you still draw on it, or does it have to track to a direct increase in finished goods inventory?

聽起來你可以提取它，即使庫存，庫存的製成品持平，你仍然可以提取它，還是它必須跟踪製成品庫存的直接增加？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, it does track to your finished goods inventory. Basically it's a finished goods loan.

是的，它確實跟踪您的成品庫存。基本上是成品貸款。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

No problem. Thanks for the question.

沒問題。謝謝你的問題。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Colin Rusch。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks so much. You're coming in the next couple quarters to the end of some of the initial leases on the Model S's. Can you talk a little bit about your preparations for that, and your expectations as we move throughout this year on what will happen with those cars, and how many of them are actually going to get returned?

非常感謝。在接下來的幾個季度中，Model S 的一些初始租約即將結束。您能否談談您為此所做的準備，以及您對我們今年全年對這些汽車會發生什麼以及其中有多少實際上會被歸還的期望？

Sure. Jon, do you want to talk about that?

當然。喬恩，你想談談這個嗎？

Sure. We actually started on that early, and launched a campaign in the second half of 2015 to reach out to folks who had cars coming off lease. One of the attractive things to those folks who are coming off lease is to have a car that's equipped with Autopilot. Autopilot is certainly one of the core stories of what's going on here at Tesla. It's really exciting.

當然。我們實際上很早就開始了，並在 2015 年下半年發起了一項活動，以接觸那些有汽車到期的人。對於那些即將結束租賃的人來說，其中一件有吸引力的事情就是擁有一輛配備自動駕駛儀的汽車。 Autopilot 無疑是特斯拉正在發生的事情的核心故事之一。這真的很令人興奮。

We're finding that folks are willing to upgrade their Tesla as part of this campaign. We've got a total program where we're really providing a smooth transition period for these cars. In addition to that, we're finding there is a very healthy after market for these cars. The trade-in values in the market are significantly above our residual reserves on the cars, which is giving us some flexibility in terms of our financing partners offering very attractive monthly payments and loan terms, because the cars are holding -- Teslas are holding value at a much higher rate than we thought.

作為此次活動的一部分，我們發現人們願意升級他們的特斯拉。我們有一個完整的計劃，我們真正為這些汽車提供了一個平穩的過渡期。除此之外，我們發現這些汽車的售後市場非常健康。市場上的以舊換新價值大大高於我們對汽車的剩餘儲備，這為我們的融資合作夥伴提供了一些靈活性，提供非常有吸引力的每月付款和貸款條款，因為汽車持有——特斯拉持有價值比我們想像的要高得多。

I think the short answer is we're out ahead of it, and we're getting really good reception and conversion from customers. We're excited about the next generation of Tesla, which is an Autopilot-equipped car.

我認為簡短的回答是我們領先於它，並且我們從客戶那裡獲得了非常好的接待和轉換。我們對下一代特斯拉感到興奮，這是一款配備自動駕駛儀的汽車。

Okay, great. Then the follow-up. There's some pretty significant legislation updating the Toxic Substances Control Act that passed through Congress in December. As you guys look at a lot of the details in terms of ramping the Gigafactory, can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing as the impact so far with the updated substances, and how they might be treated as we go forward here?

好，太棒了。然後是後續。有一些非常重要的立法更新了 12 月通過國會的《有毒物質控制法》。當你們在 Gigafactory 升級方面看到很多細節時，你們能否談談你們所看到的更新物質的影響，以及在我們前進時如何對待它們?

This is JB. I can jump in there. We haven't seen any immediate impacts from those results or changes. The materials we're using at the Gigafactory are not particularly toxic substances.

這是JB。我可以跳進去。我們還沒有看到這些結果或變化有任何直接影響。我們在 Gigafactory 使用的材料並不是特別有毒的物質。

The Gigafactory has zero toxic output.

Gigafactory 的毒性輸出為零。

In terms of large industrial factories, it's an incredibly clean one. There's really no air emissions, and the raw materials are largely base metals and things like that.

就大型工業工廠而言，這是一個非常乾淨的工廠。真的沒有廢氣排放，原材料主要是賤金屬之類的東西。

Okay, great. I'll follow up off line. Thanks, guys.

好，太棒了。我會離線跟進。多謝你們。

Thank you. Our next question is from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。請問你的問題。

Hi, everybody. Two quick ones. First, can you confirm reports that Jim Keller, a legend in the microprocessor world, has joined the Company to head some hardware engineering at Tesla Autopilot? If that's correct, does that signal that Tesla might be moving to design some of their own silicone?

大家好你們好。兩個快的。首先，您能否證實有關微處理器世界傳奇人物 Jim Keller 已加入公司並在 Tesla Autopilot 負責一些硬件工程的報導？如果這是正確的，這是否表明特斯拉可能會開始設計自己的矽膠？

Well, I think it's public knowledge that Jim Keller has joined. We have a lot of talented people that join Tesla all the time. Jim is indicative of that. Some people will get a bit more press than others, but I think the talent that's joining Tesla is really incredible. With regard to the latter part of your question, we just -- no comment.

好吧，我認為吉姆·凱勒加入是眾所周知的。我們有很多才華橫溢的人一直在加入特斯拉。吉姆表明了這一點。有些人會比其他人得到更多的新聞，但我認為加入特斯拉的人才真的令人難以置信。關於你問題的後半部分，我們只是-- 不予置評。

Okay. Then a follow-up. On test drives, outside of Company-sponsored events, surprised we haven't seen any full comprehensive independent test drives from the major magazines. Is there anything preventing -- I think people on the call can understand if there would be of the earlier-produced units that maybe you wouldn't want released quite yet, but is there anything preventing the magazines from gaining access to the early vehicles, the Model Xs, and conducting a full road test of the vehicle? If there is, when can we expect some of the first reviews, do you think?

好的。然後是後續。在公司贊助的活動之外的試駕中，令我們驚訝的是，我們還沒有看到來自主要雜誌的任何全面的獨立試駕。有什麼阻止 - 我認為通話中的人們可以理解是否會有早期生產的單位可能你還不想發布，但是有什麼阻止雜誌獲得早期車輛的訪問權， Model Xs，並對車輛進行全面的道路測試？如果有，我們什麼時候可以期待一些第一批評論，你覺得呢？

We provided cars to the media, largely because we -- to the degree that we could suppress demand for the X, we did. We took basically every action we could to suppress demand for the X, because production wasn't -- we needed to get production up. There was no point in amplifying demand if production cannot meet that demand. We did our best to really suppress demand, or certainly not encourage demand.

我們向媒體提供汽車，主要是因為我們 - 在某種程度上我們可以抑制對 X 的需求，我們做到了。我們基本上採取了一切可能的行動來抑制對 X 的需求，因為生產不是——我們需要提高產量。如果生產不能滿足需求，那麼擴大需求是沒有意義的。我們盡最大努力真正抑制需求，或者肯定不鼓勵需求。

That will obviously change in the balance of this year as we get cars to stores, because there have been no Model Xs at stores. No Model Xs available for test drives. In the coming months, I think probably next month, you will start to see some reviews in magazines and what not. The feedback from customers we've gotten has been very positive.

隨著我們將汽車送到商店，這顯然會在今年的餘額中發生變化，因為商店裡沒有 Model X。沒有可用於試駕的 Model X。在接下來的幾個月裡，我想可能是下個月，你會開始在雜誌上看到一些評論，等等。我們從客戶那裡得到的反饋非常積極。

Thanks, Elon.

謝謝，埃隆。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner of CLSA. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自里昂證券的 Emmanuel Rosner。你的線路是開放的。

Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to ask you first, can you give us a little more color on what exactly happened with the Q4 launch? In the letter, it implied that it took maybe longer than expected. What issues have you encountered? What have you learned that gives you confidence that in your next launch, maybe the Model 3, you can actually ramp that up significantly quicker?

你好，下午好。我想先問你，你能告訴我們第四季度的發佈到底發生了什麼嗎？在信中，它暗示可能比預期花費的時間更長。你遇到過哪些問題？你學到了什麼讓你有信心在下一次發佈時，也許是 Model 3，你實際上可以更快地提升它？

Yes, I think that's a great question. The mistake we made with the Model X, which I really think we've taken to heart at Tesla, is that we put too many new features and technologies, too many great things all at once into a product. In retrospect, it would have been a better decision to do fewer things with the first version of the Model X, and then roll in the capabilities and features, new technologies over time in subsequent years. I do think there was some hubris there with the X.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的問題。我們在 Model X 上犯的錯誤，我真的認為我們在特斯拉已經牢記在心，那就是我們把太多的新功能和技術，太多偉大的東西一次都放在了一個產品中。回想起來，在 Model X 的第一個版本上做更少的事情，然後在隨後的幾年中隨著時間的推移引入新的功能和特性，這將是一個更好的決定。我確實認為 X 有一些傲慢。

The net result, however, is that I think the Model X is an amazing car -- honestly, think it's probably -- I think it's the best car ever. I'm not sure anyone's going to make a car like this again. I'm not sure Tesla would make a car like this again. Yes, it's -- I would be surprised if -- if somebody buys the X, particularly as the software gets refined, if it's not the product they love more than any product they have ever bought, I would be surprised.

然而，最終的結果是，我認為 Model X 是一輛了不起的汽車——老實說，我認為它可能是——我認為它是有史以來最好的汽車。我不確定有人會再次製造這樣的汽車。我不確定特斯拉會再次製造這樣的汽車。是的，如果有人購買 X，我會感到驚訝，特別是隨著軟件的改進，如果這不是他們喜歡的產品而不是他們曾經購買過的任何產品，我會感到驚訝。

Maybe it's worth also commenting that even some of the most innovative features on X that caused some challenges in Q4 have really been largely overcome today.

也許還值得一提的是，即使是 X 上一些最具創新性的功能，在第四季度引起了一些挑戰，今天也確實在很大程度上被克服了。

Yes, that's true.

是的，這是真的。

The operation of the falcon door, the sourcing and supply of the large glass wind screen. These things are working very well, and are not a bottleneck at this point.

獵鷹門的運營，大玻璃風幕的採購和供應。這些東西運行得很好，目前還不是瓶頸。

Exactly. Some of the things that caused us issues are somewhat counter-intuitive. They're not the obvious things. For at least a few weeks, maybe three or four weeks, actually, the constraint was the chrome finish on the bright work around the window, the front window. Okay, and you think like how on earth could that be the constraint? But it was.

確切地。一些引起我們問題的事情有些違反直覺。它們不是顯而易見的東西。實際上，至少有幾個星期，也許是三到四個星期，限制是窗戶周圍明亮的工作，前窗的鍍鉻飾面。好的，你認為這到底是怎麼回事？但它是。

It was seals.

是海豹。

Seals. Yes, the seals have been a huge bane. Essentially, the seals had to be redesigned. Then the seals that we did have had to be re-worked by hand in order to fit correctly. Yes, seals were a bane. We had a lot of issues with obviously secondary seat, but we've now in-sourced that capability. Yes, we really don't see any fundamental issues.

密封件。是的，海豹是一個巨大的禍根。本質上，密封件必須重新設計。然後我們必須手工重新加工密封件才能正確安裝。是的，海豹是禍根。我們在顯然是次要席位方面遇到了很多問題，但我們現在已經內購了這種能力。是的，我們真的沒有看到任何基本問題。

Okay. It sounds like it's basically mostly behind you. As we move forward into the year, you're talking about this Model X production rate of a thousand vehicles a week in Q2. Is that an exit rate, or is that an average for Q2? Can you more generally give us how you see the overall mix for the year of S versus X play out in terms of deliveries?

好的。聽起來它基本上大部分都在你身後。隨著我們進入這一年，您正在談論第二季度每週生產 1000 輛 Model X 的生產率。這是退出率，還是第二季度的平均值？您能否更一般地告訴我們您如何看待 S 與 X 年的整體組合在交付方面的表現？

Some of the stuff you have as good a crystal ball as we do. Let's see, 1,000 a week would probably be a peak production week in Q2. Average, I don't know what the average is going to be exactly, but maybe 700 or 800, something like that. That's -- I think we feel confident of hitting 1,000 a week certainly towards the mid to end of Q2. Then for the exact mix, I think we need to see how customers react when both cars are in the showrooms, and we will adjust accordingly. But we expect a combined delivery number, average over the year of 1,600 to 1,800 per week.

您擁有的一些東西和我們一樣好水晶球。讓我們看看，每週 1,000 台可能是第二季度的生產高峰週。平均值，我不知道平均值到底是多少，但可能是 700 或 800 之類的。那是 - 我認為我們有信心在第二季度中後期達到每週 1,000 個。然後對於確切的組合，我認為我們需要看看當兩輛車都在展廳時客戶的反應，我們會做出相應的調整。但我們預計全年的平均交付數量為每週 1,600 至 1,800 件。

Perfect. Thank you very much.

完美的。非常感謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Colin Lincoln of UBS. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的科林林肯。你的線路是開放的。

Great, thanks for taking my questions. Can you walk through what are the key short-term drivers, because you're still -- of cash flow, sorry -- still burning $200 million this quarter. Is this really all volume to get back -- to get cash-flow positive by Q2? You also touch on CapEx. You have it -- you're saying it's going to be flat to down, but it seems like there's an awful lot of work going on in the Company. How do you keep CapEx down as you have all these growth plans?

太好了，感謝您提出我的問題。您能否介紹一下關鍵的短期驅動因素是什麼，因為您仍然 - 現金流，抱歉 - 本季度仍在消耗 2 億美元。這真的是所有的交易量都回來了——到第二季度獲得正現金流嗎？您還談到了資本支出。你有它 - 你說它會平淡無奇，但公司似乎有很多工作要做。當您擁有所有這些增長計劃時，您如何降低資本支出？

Yes, sure. The key drivers on cash-flow positive, as I said in the earlier comments, it was a great step. The operations -- the businesses selling cars and energy products is now producing enough cash for us start to pay for our investments. If you look at the Q4 dynamics, that cash flow from core operations as we're calling it produced 40% to 45% of the cash that we needed for the CapEx in the quarter. That is certainly a big piece of it, too.

是的，當然。正如我在之前的評論中所說，現金流為正的主要驅動因素是邁出的一大步。業務——銷售汽車和能源產品的企業現在正在為我們生產足夠的現金來支付我們的投資。如果你看看第四季度的動態，我們稱之為核心業務的現金流產生了我們本季度資本支出所需現金的 40% 到 45%。這當然也是其中很大一部分。

Another piece of it, as I mentioned, is going to be operating leverage. We need to be very diligent about how we grow operating costs, certainly. The other big element to it is certainly continuing to drive costs down on the vehicles. There's lots of ways to do that. We are getting better at our manufacturing processes, we're reducing scrap, we're reducing excess and obsolescence. As we talk about it in the letter, the car continues to be more and more reliable. That reduces our warranty. That actually has a cash impact when the cars show up less at the service centers.

正如我所提到的，另一部分將是經營槓桿。當然，我們需要非常努力地增加運營成本。另一個重要因素當然是繼續降低車輛的成本。有很多方法可以做到這一點。我們的製造流程越來越好，我們正在減少廢料，我們正在減少過剩和過時。正如我們在信中所說的那樣，汽車繼續變得越來越可靠。這減少了我們的保修。當汽車在服務中心出現的次數減少時，這實際上會產生現金影響。

Yes, in fact, I would like to re-emphasize that. We are seeing dramatic improvements in reliability and reductions in servicing needs This is important. Sorry, go ahead.

是的，事實上，我想再次強調這一點。我們看到可靠性的顯著提高和服務需求的減少 這很重要。對不起，繼續。

Yes. No, absolutely. Then the other piece, you talk about CapEx and how can it be down? Well, we made a bulk of the investments that we need for Model X in 2015. In 2016 we're going to continue to invest, but will really towards the back half of the year start to see some initial investment in Model 3. We continue to invest in the Gigafactory to get to where we want to be with production there. Then we'll continue to expand the service center, the retail locations, and the Supercharger network, as well. But there is a lot of the big pieces that we needed to spend in CapEx to get to where we are today were spent in the past.

是的。不，絕對。然後另一篇文章，你談到資本支出，它怎麼會下降？嗯，我們在 2015 年為 Model X 進行了大部分投資。2016 年我們將繼續投資，但真正到今年下半年開始看到一些對 Model 3 的初始投資。我們繼續投資 Gigafactory 以到達我們想在那裡進行生產的地方。然後我們將繼續擴大服務中心、零售點和增壓器網絡。但是，我們需要在資本支出上花費很多大筆資金才能達到我們今天的水平，這些都是過去花費的。

Yes. I think it's important to bear in mind that the overall market for SUVs and sedans is roughly the same. Globally, it's split almost 50/50. The X is like half of our volume. If you set a Company up to produce x -- and -- let me use the variable x. If you set a Company up to produce a certain amount of revenue, and then it produces maybe just over half that amount of revenue, but has the cost basis associated with it, then obviously things will not be pretty from a cash flow and profitability standpoint, necessarily is going to be true. But then as X production rises, then that changes, then we achieve the target revenue with the -- with a reasonable cost basis, and the whole picture changes dramatically for profitability and cash flow.

是的。我認為重要的是要記住，SUV 和轎車的整體市場大致相同。在全球範圍內，它的比例幾乎為 50/50。 X 就像我們體積的一半。如果您設置一家公司來生產 x - 並且 - 讓我使用變量 x。如果您設立一家公司以產生一定數量的收入，然後它產生的收入可能略高於該收入的一半，但有與之相關的成本基礎，那麼從現金流和盈利能力的角度來看，事情顯然不會很好，必然是真的。但是隨著 X 產量的增加，這種情況發生了變化，然後我們以合理的成本基礎實現了目標收入，整個情況在盈利能力和現金流方面發生了巨大變化。

Absolutely. The only other last thing I would add, too, we've had significant run-up investment over the last couple years. Now it's time to absorb that and look for greater capital efficiency.

絕對地。我還要補充的最後一件事是，我們在過去幾年中進行了大量的啟動投資。現在是吸收這一點並尋求更高資本效率的時候了。

Got it. One final question. Sorry, just one final question. Can you remind us if we're -- are you still on track for storage of 400 million to 500 million this year, and 400 million to 500 million next year? Is that still on track?

知道了。最後一個問題。對不起，最後一個問題。您能否提醒我們，如果我們 - 您是否仍有望在今年存儲 4 億至 5 億，明年存儲 4 億至 5 億？這還在軌道上嗎？

JB, do you want to comment on that? One (technical difficulty) thing I'd say with respect to energy, we do see this being a very enormous market, but we're -- it's an exponential growth market. Exactly where the calendar falls on that S curve exponential makes quite a big difference on revenue. It will be heavily weighted to the fourth quarter, JB do you want to add anything?

JB，你想對此發表評論嗎？關於能源，我要說的一件事（技術難度），我們確實看到這是一個非常巨大的市場，但我們是——這是一個指數增長的市場。日曆在 S 曲線上的確切位置對收入產生了很大的影響。會重壓到第四季度，JB有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, that's exactly right. It's not a linear extrapolation throughout the year at all. I think we're being fairly cautious in trying to make sure that we don't over-promise here, and understand what's going to happen in Q4. It's a little tricky to know how that will grow.

是的，完全正確。這根本不是全年的線性推斷。我認為我們在試圖確保我們不會在這裡過度承諾並了解第四季度會發生什麼方面相當謹慎。知道它將如何增長有點棘手。

Production is on track. We feel really good about that. Production started off as planned in the Gigafactory in Q4. Deliveries are on track. We're starting shipments of power walls and power packs worldwide. We're growing out the sales operations and sales teams around the world. From an execution point of view, I think we feel really good with where we're at. It's early days to predict how exactly that exponential growth is going to really integrate.

生產步入正軌。我們對此感覺非常好。第四季度 Gigafactory 按計劃開始生產。交付正在按計劃進行。我們開始在全球範圍內發貨電源牆和電源組。我們正在擴大世界各地的銷售運營和銷售團隊。從執行的角度來看，我認為我們對我們所處的位置感覺非常好。現在預測指數增長將如何真正整合還為時過早。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Archambault of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Patrick Archambault。你的線路是開放的。

Okay. Yes, thanks. Good afternoon, and good evening from our end. I wanted to build on Emmanuel's question. Can you tell us what is the current run rate of X production? Where do we stand today towards the middle of February? Can we talk a little bit about how you get to that ramp? It sounds like 1,000 is the target that would obviously mathematically get you to think about half your production. That's pretty much full ramp.

好的。對了謝謝。下午好，晚上好，我們結束了。我想以 Emmanuel 的問題為基礎。您能告訴我們目前 X 生產的運行速度是多少嗎？臨近二月中旬，我們今天站在哪裡？我們能談談你是如何到達那個坡道的嗎？聽起來 1,000 是顯然在數學上會讓您考慮一半產量的目標。這幾乎是完整的坡道。

It seems like that's a pretty big distance from where you are now. Maybe we can walk through the pieces that get you there in terms of training employees, getting the supply base in order, getting some of the quality issues resolved? That would be my first question.

看來這距離你現在的位置相當遠。也許我們可以通過培訓員工、整理供應基地、解決一些質量問題等方面來幫助您實現目標？那將是我的第一個問題。

I don't think we want to comment at that level of granularity. Unless people understand how our production works, they will reach incorrect conclusions. We will stick to what our projections are, and leave it at that.

我認為我們不想在那個粒度級別上發表評論。除非人們了解我們的生產方式，否則他們將得出錯誤的結論。我們將堅持我們的預測，並保持不變。

Okay. In terms of another ramp-oriented question, if I may, it does seem that given the forecast that you have for I think 16,000 deliveries this year, getting to --

好的。就另一個面向斜坡的問題而言，如果我可以的話，看起來確實鑑於您對我認為今年交付 16,000 次的預測，達到 -

This quarter.

本季度。

For this quarter, excuse me. Getting to 80 to 90 would imply a run rate that's about 40% higher than where you are in Q1. But you also made a comment that inventories may -- that a lot of that is going to be international, and there may be some in process inventory being built out to service that. Maybe we can talk a little bit about that ramp?

對於本季度，對不起。達到 80 到 90 意味著運行率比第一季度高出約 40%。但是您還發表評論說庫存可能 - 其中很多將是國際化的，並且可能會建立一些在製品庫存來服務。也許我們可以談談那個坡道？

Yes, the international stuff is mostly Q2. That's really where the international ramp starts. There's still inventory in process for of course, North America, because it takes longer to get a car to the east coast, particularly for like a blizzard or something. That's certainly a factor in finished goods, but finished goods necessarily ramps as we fill the pipeline for overseas sales, which is next quarter.

是的，國際的東西主要是第二季度。這真的是國際坡道開始的地方。當然，北美仍有庫存，因為將汽車運到東海岸需要更長的時間，尤其是暴風雪之類的情況。這當然是製成品的一個因素，但隨著我們填補下個季度的海外銷售渠道，製成品必然會增加。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Galves of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Galves。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks for taking my questions. First one has to do with operating expenses. Hopefully I'm not getting the numbers wrong, but it seems like 20% growth in 2016 versus 2015 implies relatively flat versus the Q4 run rate? Is that achievable to essentially keep the operating expenses pretty consistent throughout 2016?

感謝您提出我的問題。第一個與運營費用有關。希望我沒有弄錯數字，但似乎 2016 年與 2015 年相比 20% 的增長意味著與第四季度的運行率相對持平？在整個 2016 年基本上保持運營費用相當一致是否可以實現？

Yes, certainly. This is Jason. Yes, we definitely believe we can do that. There was a bit of a dog's breakfast in Q4. We had some things in there. I'll give you a couple of examples. We had some aged receivables from some service revenues in Europe that we ended up having to write off. That was one thing. We had some R&D tooling that had come to the end of its useful life that we had to write off, as well. There is some noise in the Q4 number, for sure. I'm very confident in the projection in the forecast that we've given for 2016 relative to 2015.

是的，當然了。這是傑森。是的，我們絕對相信我們可以做到。第四季度有一點狗的早餐。我們在裡面放了一些東西。我給你舉幾個例子。我們在歐洲的一些服務收入中有一些陳舊的應收賬款，我們最終不得不註銷。那是一回事。我們有一些研發工具已經到了使用壽命，我們也不得不註銷。第四季度的數字肯定有一些噪音。我對我們對 2016 年相對於 2015 年的預測的預測非常有信心。

Okay, great. Yes, no problem. One other, if I could. There's been a lot of negative chatter about Gigafactory related to signing up of other partners, precursor partners, supply agreements for access to raw materials, and the general size of the plant. I was wondering if you could give us an update on where you stand, and if you see any challenges to get up to the 35 gigawatt hours of cell production by 2020, 50 of packs?

好，太棒了。是沒有問題。另一個，如果可以的話。有很多關於 Gigafactory 的負面傳言，涉及與其他合作夥伴、前體合作夥伴的簽約、獲得原材料的供應協議以及工廠的總體規模。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您的最新情況，以及您是否發現到 2020 年達到 35 吉瓦時電池生產的任何挑戰，50 個電池組？

Sure. General relative to that initial forecast and timelines, we feel pretty comfortable on where we're at. There has been a lot of drama and a lot of negativity in the reporting on this. Some around the head count recently that I think a lot of people picked up on.

當然。一般相對於最初的預測和時間表，我們對我們所處的位置感到非常舒服。在這方面的報導中有很多戲劇性和消極性。最近有一些人頭數，我認為很多人都接受了。

Maybe just to talk about that one in particular, that recent hiring head count discussion queued off of numbers that we reported that were effective essentially in the middle of 2015. Those were essentially compared against where we predicted to be at the end of 2015. They weren't even really apples to apples. In our very most recent report that we made with the governor's office of economic development, we had reported around 272 net hires for the year at the end of 2015, against -- we had a target of 300.

也許只是為了特別談談那個，最近的招聘人數討論排在我們報告的基本上在 2015 年年中有效的數字之外。這些基本上與我們在 2015 年底的預測進行了比較。他們甚至不是真正的蘋果對蘋果。在我們與州長經濟發展辦公室所做的最新報告中，我們報告了截至 2015 年底全年約有 272 名淨僱員，而我們的目標是 300 人。

The general plan is executing actually quite closely to what we had laid out back in 2014. I think because it's a fast growth, we have to be really careful at what snapshot in time you actually look at, and what you compare that against.

總體計劃的執行實際上與我們在 2014 年制定的計劃非常接近。我認為，因為這是一個快速增長，我們必須非常小心您實際查看的時間快照，以及您將其與什麼進行比較。

We still have the same confidence. We're still on track to produce 15 gigawatt hours of cells, and -- I'm sorry, 35 gigawatt hours of cells and 50 gigawatt hours of packs -- 15 of that going to Tesla Energy, the rest going to Model 3 in vehicles. That still is on track, and we're on track to start cell production towards the end of this year.

我們仍然有同樣的信心。我們仍在按計劃生產 15 吉瓦時的電池，而且 - 對不起，35 吉瓦時的電池和 50 吉瓦時的電池組 - 其中 15 塊用於特斯拉能源，其餘用於模型 3車輛。這仍在進行中，我們有望在今年年底開始生產電池。

Okay, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Basically, to the best of our knowledge, you should not worry about the Gigafactory as a constraint on Model 3. That does not appear to be anywhere near the critical path for Model 3.

基本上，據我們所知，您不應該擔心 Gigafactory 會限制 Model 3。這似乎與 Model 3 的關鍵路徑無關。

If I can say a few words about the Gigafactory in Nevada and the incentives and all that. One of the most bothersome things that I see in the media is over-representation of the Nevada incentives. The thing to bear in mind for the $1.3 billion in incentives for Nevada is that in order for us to achieve that, we have to develop about $100 billion in revenue from the Gigafactory. Those incentives occur over 20 years, representing approximately a 1% discount on the cost of the Gigafactory.

如果我能談談內華達州的 Gigafactory 和激勵措施等等。我在媒體上看到的最令人煩惱的事情之一是內華達州激勵措施的過度代表。內華達州 13 億美元的激勵措施要記住的是，為了實現這一目標，我們必須從 Gigafactory 開發約 1000 億美元的收入。這些激勵措施將持續 20 年，相當於 Gigafactory 成本的約 1% 折扣。

The reason it's a big number -- and I should say a disproportionate -- it is a big number in the absolute sense, but it is disproportionately small relative to incentives that say Boeing would receive for keeping an aircraft factory in Washington. The reason it's this big is because the Gigafactory will be the largest-footprint building in the world when it is done. Our Tesla Fremont factory is currently number two. If you're curious, number one is flower auction house in the Netherlands. You can look this up on Wikipedia. It makes sense that if something is the biggest thing on earth, it's probably going to have incentives that are big in the absolute, but small in relative terms.

這是一個很大的數字的原因——我應該說一個不成比例的數字——從絕對意義上說，它是一個很大的數字，但與波音公司在華盛頓保留飛機工廠所獲得的激勵相比，它是不成比例的小。它之所以這麼大，是因為超級工廠建成後將成為世界上佔地面積最大的建築。我們的特斯拉弗里蒙特工廠目前排名第二。如果您好奇，排名第一的是荷蘭的花卉拍賣行。你可以在維基百科上查到這個。這是有道理的，如果某件事是地球上最大的東西，它可能會產生絕對大的激勵，但相對而言卻很小。

The fundamental driver of the decision -- not the exclusive driver, but the primary driver of the decision -- was pace of execution for the Gigafactory. That was the primary reason for Nevada over other options. That -- I believe that -- this decision is bearing fruit, because we are seeing it move at a very good pace.

決定的根本驅動因素——不是唯一的驅動因素，而是決定的主要驅動因素——是 Gigafactory 的執行速度。這是內華達州選擇其他選擇的主要原因。那——我相信——這個決定正在取得成果，因為我們看到它以非常好的速度發展。

Okay, thanks, guys. Welcome, Jason. Sorry.

好的，謝謝各位。歡迎，傑森。對不起。

All of those incentives are also performance-based.

所有這些激勵措施也是基於績效的。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

We don't receive them unless we execute along the path toward the milestones.

除非我們沿著通往里程碑的道路執行，否則我們不會收到它們。

Right. Even some of the ones we do receive have claw-back provisions. Essentially, like I wrote a blog about this. There is no way for Nevada to lose. The way Nevada set up the incentive structure, it is a no-lose proposition for them. They did an awesome job on behalf of their state. You can read the blog that I wrote called the house always wins, which is true. Anyway, it's really annoying to see this stuff misrepresented in the press.

正確的。甚至我們收到的一些也有追回條款。本質上，就像我寫了一篇關於這個的博客。內華達州不可能輸。內華達州建立激勵結構的方式對他們來說是一個不輸的提議。他們代表他們的州做了出色的工作。您可以閱讀我寫的博客，稱房子總是贏，這是真的。無論如何，看到這些東西在媒體上被歪曲真的很煩人。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝你。

Next question, please?

請問下一個問題？

Yes sir. Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

是的先生。我們的下一個問題來自美銀美林的約翰·墨菲。你的線路是開放的。

Good afternoon, guys. A first question, Elon, you made a very interesting comment about the Model X being the best car ever produced. It sounds like you think it might be better than the Model S.

下午好，伙計們。第一個問題，埃隆，你對 Model X 是有史以來最好的汽車發表了非常有趣的評論。聽起來您認為它可能比 Model S 更好。

Maybe I'm biased, obviously.

也許我有偏見，很明顯。

It's your newest car, so it makes sense -- or newest vehicle, I should say, so it makes sense. But as you look at getting that production ramped up and availability out there to consumers, what would the selling point be on the Model S then? Could you get this mix significantly above 50% cross-overs or Model X, because the price premium is not that great? Why wouldn't you sell a whole lot more Model X than Model S, and could you?

這是你最新的汽車，所以它是有道理的——或者是最新的汽車，我應該說，所以它是有道理的。但是，當您考慮提高產量並向消費者提供可用性時，那麼 Model S 的賣點是什麼？由於價格溢價不是那麼高，您能否將這種組合顯著高於 50% 的跨界車或 Model X？你為什麼不賣比 Model S 更多的 Model X，你可以嗎？

Yes, I think this is a question of owner preference. I personally still prefer to drive the Model S over the X, because I'm a -- I like the lower position of a sedan. The S, in terms of performance, is about 10% better in an acceleration and handling or what-not than the X.

是的，我認為這是業主偏好的問題。我個人還是更喜歡駕駛 Model S 超過 X，因為我是一個——我喜歡轎車的較低位置。就性能而言，S 在加速和操控方面比 X 好 10% 左右。

It really depends on owner optimization. If you like a high seating position, an amazing amount of room and functionality, a feeling of high visibility -- because one of the best features, maybe the best feature of the X is the cockpit-style front windshield, which gives you this amazing panoramic view as you are driving. A lot of people like that in an SUV, and that's the reason they buy that. It really depends on personal preference. We'll see what the results are once we actually put the vehicle in the stores and people take test drives.

這實際上取決於所有者優化。如果您喜歡較高的座椅位置、驚人的空間和功能、高能見度的感覺——因為最好的功能之一，也許 X 的最佳功能是駕駛艙式前擋風玻璃，它為您提供了令人驚嘆的駕駛時的全景。很多人喜歡SUV，這就是他們購買它的原因。這真的取決於個人喜好。一旦我們將車輛實際放入商店並且人們進行試駕，我們就會看到結果如何。

When you think about all the content you're putting in the X and the upgradability of the S and the X over time, how do you think about planned obsolescence, which is a real necessary part of almost any business to generate incremental sales from your existing customer base?

當您考慮您在 X 中放入的所有內容以及 S 和 X 隨時間推移的可升級性時，您如何看待計劃報廢，這是幾乎所有業務真正必要的部分，可以從您的產品中產生增量銷售現有客戶群？

Our view of planned -- we don't plan to obsolete things. We just relentlessly make things better. For example, for the S, there's an average of 20 improvements per week. Most of these are little tiny nuance things that most people wouldn't notice, but it is a continuous improvement process. That's why I say when people say when should they buy a Model S, like what model year, we don't really have model years. We keep improving the car. If you want to wait until the car stops improving, you will be waiting forever.

我們對計劃的看法——我們不打算過時的東西。我們只是不懈地讓事情變得更好。例如，對於 S，每周平均有 20 次改進。其中大部分是大多數人不會注意到的細微差別，但這是一個持續改進的過程。這就是為什麼我說當人們說他們應該什麼時候購買 Model S 時，比如什麼型號年份，我們並沒有真正的型號年份。我們不斷改進汽車。如果您想等到汽車停止改進，您將永遠等待。

Okay, one follow-up on the cash flow for 2016. Obviously a lot of progress has been made more recently. As we think about the positive net cash flow and the increase in the cash balance on a year-over-year basis, will that include -- I'm trying to be clear, here -- the potential draw on the ABL over time as that's needed to run the business, or does that net cash increase not include whatever draw that happens on the ABL in 2016?

好的，關於 2016 年現金流的後續行動。顯然，最近取得了很多進展。當我們考慮正的淨現金流和現金餘額同比增長時，這是否包括——我想在這裡澄清一下——隨著時間的推移對 ABL 的潛在影響這是經營業務所需要的，還是淨現金增加不包括 2016 年 ABL 發生的任何抽水？

That includes the draw on the ABL [to finance initiatives].

這包括利用 ABL [為倡議提供資金]。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Albertine of Stifel. Your question, please?

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jamie Albertine。請問你的問題？

Great. Thanks for taking the question. On the Model 3, if I may, I think a lot of folks are trying to do work as it relates on the margin trajectory over time. It's clearly going to be volume-dependent and timing around the launch. I was wondering if you could help us understand, given that it's one-third of the transaction price of roughly your initial Model X deliveries, what are some of the efficiencies you're hoping you can draw upon, beyond the battery cost reductions? What are you leveraging in the Model 3 from investments you've already made, and the knowledge you have around initial launch costs on the higher priced vehicles at this point?

偉大的。感謝您提出問題。在 Model 3 上，如果可以的話，我認為很多人都在嘗試做與隨著時間推移的利潤率軌跡相關的工作。它顯然將取決於數量和發佈時間。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們理解，鑑於它大約是您最初交付 Model X 交易價格的三分之一，除了電池成本降低之外，您希望您可以利用哪些效率？您在 Model 3 中從您已經進行的投資中利用了什麼，以及您目前對高價車輛的初始發射成本的了解？

I think the way to think of the cost difference is really that the Model 3, being a sedan, it is about 20% lighter than -- and actually, quite a bit less complex to manufacture than the Model S. The Model S was really the first car we ever made ourselves. It was -- we were designing to make it work, as opposed to designing it for ease of manufacturing, whereas the 3 is really designed for ease of manufacturing. Then we expect through economies of scale and general design improvements to get another 30% improvement. That's where the 50% improvement comes relative to the S. So $35,000 versus $70,000, 3 versus S, is the way to think about the difference.

我認為考慮成本差異的方法實際上是 Model 3 作為轎車，它比 Model 3 輕約 20%——實際上，製造起來比 Model S 簡單得多。Model S 真的我們自己製造的第一輛汽車。它是——我們設計它是為了讓它工作，而不是為了便於製造而設計它，而 3 的設計實際上是為了便於製造。然後，我們期望通過規模經濟和總體設計改進再獲得 30% 的改進。這就是相對於 S 提高 50% 的地方。因此，35,000 美元對 70,000 美元，3 對 S，是考慮差異的方式。

Our default plan, as we've done in the past, is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car. Because obviously, we've got to pay back the investment of all the tooling and everything. It makes sense to have the higher-optioned versions first. That's what we did with the S, and obviously again with the X. While it was unfortunate the way the X pricing got reported, that they reported the fully optioned Signature series as though it was the base price volume number in some publications. This is just a misunderstanding of how things work. I think it's also normal to see this in many other industries. If Intel comes out with a new CPU or a faster CPU, or NVIDIA comes out with a new graphics card, in the beginning it's a lot more expensive, and then over time the price drops.

正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們的默認計劃是初始銷售是相對高度可選的汽車版本。因為很明顯，我們必須償還所有工具和一切的投資。首先擁有更高選項的版本是有意義的。這就是我們對 S 所做的，顯然對 X 也是如此。雖然不幸的是 X 定價的報導方式，但他們報告了完全可選的 Signature 系列，就好像它是某些出版物中的基本價格數量一樣。這只是對事物運作方式的誤解。我認為在許多其他行業中看到這種情況也很正常。如果 Intel 推出新的 CPU 或更快的 CPU，或者 NVIDIA 推出新的顯卡，一開始它會貴很多，然後隨著時間的推移價格會下降。

Just a clarification, Elon, on economies of scale. Should I think about that -- the running through the paint shop, as an example, given you said the 10,000-unit-per-week goal there? And then separately, should we expect -- when should we expect to start hearing about the Model 3 production line? Where do you within the facility plan to build it, at what point? Is it going to be the same lead time as we saw with the Model X? Thanks.

埃隆，只是對規模經濟的澄清。我是否應該考慮一下——例如，在你說那裡的每週 10,000 個單位的目標的情況下，通過油漆店的奔跑？然後分開，我們應該期待 - 我們應該什麼時候開始聽到有關 Model 3 生產線的消息？您計劃在什麼時候在設施內的哪個位置建造它？交貨時間會和我們在 Model X 上看到的一樣嗎？謝謝。

Yes, there will be a production ramp for the 3. It's always been tricky in the past to predict those production ramps, but yes. Do you guys want to add?

是的，3 將會有一個生產斜坡。過去預測這些生產斜坡總是很棘手，但是是的。你們要加嗎？

I think in the development plan that we have now, we have substantially more time and, place holder put into the schedule to really refine the product ahead of the production ramp. To a question that came earlier, that is something that we have really taken to heart in the launch of the X. As we look to higher volumes and what we hope will be a steeper ramp with model 3, I think we've learned some important lessons on how to do that well and having a really robust pilot built in the plant and enforcing rigorous numbers there.

我認為在我們現在擁有的開發計劃中，我們有更多的時間和占位符放入日程表中，以便在生產斜坡之前真正完善產品。對於之前提出的一個問題，這是我們在推出 X 時真正考慮到的問題。當我們期待更高的銷量以及我們希望 Model 3 的坡度更陡峭時，我想我們已經學到了一些關於如何做好這件事以及在工廠中建立一個真正強大的試點並在那裡執行嚴格的數字的重要經驗教訓。

Great, thank you guys, so much.

太好了，非常感謝各位。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrea James of Dougherty & Company. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自 Dougherty & Company 的 Andrea James。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks for taking my questions and welcome, Jason. Just a practical one about the factory. You have different choke points at different points in time. It's been general assembly, it's been the cells. Last count it was body lines 1 and 2. Just asking about the status of body line 2 and when you hope to migrate Model S production on to that body line.

感謝您提出我的問題，歡迎您，傑森。只是一個關於工廠的實用的。你在不同的時間點有不同的阻塞點。這是大會，是細胞。最後數是車身線 1 和 2。只是詢問車身線 2 的狀態以及您希望何時將 Model S 生產遷移到該車身線。

I think we are getting too much into the internal decisions of Tesla. If we say something that's related to an internal decision of Tesla, it can over constrain our decisions and we need to have some flexibility there. So, we would prefer not to comment on the details of when different production lines are moving around.

我認為我們對特斯拉的內部決策太過分了。如果我們說一些與特斯拉內部決策有關的事情，它可能會過度限制我們的決策，我們需要在這方面有一些靈活性。因此，我們不願評論不同生產線何時移動的細節。

Okay. Then maybe longer term, then, what is your updated thinking on the cost per kilowatt hour by the end of the decade, especially as you source your raw materials at the Gigafactory?

好的。那麼從長遠來看，那麼，到本世紀末，您對每千瓦時成本的最新想法是什麼，尤其是當您在 Gigafactory 採購原材料時？

That is quite a sensitive number, but it's less than what we see most people estimating. We see most people overestimating cost per kilowatt hour, but that is a proprietary number.

這是一個相當敏感的數字，但比我們看到的大多數人估計的要少。我們看到大多數人高估了每千瓦時的成本，但這是一個專有數字。

And I think the past you have said you would be disappointed if it was not below $100?

我想你過去說過如果不低於 100 美元你會感到失望？

Yes. In the long term, yes.

是的。從長遠來看，是的。

Thank you for taking my questions.

謝謝你接受我的問題。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan. Your question, please.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。請問你的問題。

Yes, thanks for taking my call. Question for Jason, probably. Other automakers sometimes talk about minimum cash. The amount of cash that they need to end a quarter with in order to fund intra-quarter working capital swings, even in the event total change in working capital were negligible. I'm curious what you think your minimum cash needs are and is that something you can share with the investment community? And then just more broadly, what total amount of cash or gross liquidity do you prefer to run the business with? Thanks.

是的，謝謝你接我電話。可能是傑森的問題。其他汽車製造商有時會談論最低現金。他們需要在一個季度結束時為季度內的營運資金波動提供資金，即使在營運資金的總變化可以忽略不計的情況下也是如此。我很好奇您認為您的最低現金需求是多少，您可以與投資界分享嗎？然後更廣泛地說，您更願意用多少現金或總流動性來經營業務？謝謝。

Sure, we don't go over the inner workings of how we do those calculations internally, but $1 billion is a nice comfort level. You see we are starting to make the moves on the ABL to give ourselves more flexibility there. And just to reiterate a comment that I made at the beginning, cash is king, and I'm walking around collecting it.

當然，我們不會詳細討論我們如何在內部進行這些計算的內部運作，但 10 億美元是一個不錯的舒適水平。您會看到我們開始在 ABL 上採取行動，以便在那裡給自己更多的靈活性。重申一下我在開始時所做的評論，現金為王，我正在四處走動收集它。

Okay, great, and then just last question on the Gigafactory, you have already some given updates, but maybe could just talk about how much of the planned CapEx for 2016 relates to the Gigafactory? And then maybe an update on the relationship with your partners there, maybe Panasonic or any others, how those relationships are progressing relative to their expected future contributions. Thanks.

好的，太好了，最後一個問題是關於 Gigafactory，你已經有了一些給定的更新，但也許可以談談 2016 年計劃的資本支出中有多少與 Gigafactory 相關？然後可能會更新與那裡的合作夥伴的關係，可能是松下或任何其他人，這些關係相對於他們預期的未來貢獻如何發展。謝謝。

Sure, it's a great question. We are really excited about the Gigafactory and things are on schedule. We are not at this time going to break out the detailed CapEx plans. I gave it to you thematically earlier. Certainly Gigafactory, towards the end of the year we will start to see some Model 3 investment and throughout the year we will see investment in sales, service and the super charger network.

當然，這是一個很好的問題。我們對 Gigafactory 感到非常興奮，一切都在按計劃進行。我們目前不打算公佈詳細的資本支出計劃。我之前按主題給了你。當然是 Gigafactory，到年底我們將開始看到一些 Model 3 投資，全年我們將看到對銷售、服務和超級充電網絡的投資。

Great, thanks.

太謝謝了。

Maybe just quickly on the Panasonic piece, they continue to be an excellent partner in the project. I think you have seen probably in recent months some additional statements from them with ongoing capital commitments to the project as planned. Those are happening in the right sequence. They have also started hiring for the project and training people. So, things are going as well as we can hope there.

也許只是很快就松下的作品，他們繼續成為該項目的優秀合作夥伴。我想你可能在最近幾個月看到了他們的一些額外聲明，其中包括按計劃對項目進行持續的資本承諾。這些正在以正確的順序發生。他們還開始為該項目招聘人員並培訓人員。所以，事情進展順利，正如我們所希望的那樣。

Perfect. Thanks.

完美的。謝謝。

Next question comes from Ben Kallo of Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Ben Kallo。你的線路是開放的。

Hi, guys. It's Tyler Frank on for Ben. Can you comment on the overall expectations for delivery throughout the year? If we back out the [16,000] for Q1, looks like about 23,000 [fourth] quarter for Q2 through Q4. Which seems like you should be there with production given the Model X expectations and the Model S production expectations as well?

嗨，大家好。本是泰勒弗蘭克。您能否評論一下全年交付的總體預期？如果我們取消第一季度的 [16,000]，那麼第二季度到第四季度的大約 23,000 [第四] 季度。考慮到 Model X 的預期和 Model S 的生產預期，您似乎應該參與生產？

I know you would love to have more granularity, but it's difficult for us to give you granularity that we ourselves don't have -- that's excessive precision. I don't want to give false precision. We feel good about the overall number, but it might be -- it might move around as to how it gets that overall number. And there is always unforeseen things that occur. That's why we need some flexibility, that we don't provide false precision then people hold us to false precision.

我知道你會喜歡有更多的粒度，但是我們很難給你我們自己沒有的粒度——這太精確了。我不想給出錯誤的精確度。我們對整體數字感覺良好，但它可能是 - 它可能會改變它如何獲得該整體數字。而且總是會發生無法預料的事情。這就是為什麼我們需要一些靈活性，我們不提供錯誤的精度，然後人們就會讓我們保持錯誤的精度。

Okay, thank you. And then can you comment on what you are seeing for overall demand in the China market and then what markets you expect to move into next and how that ramp will go?

好的謝謝你。然後您能否評論一下您對中國市場整體需求的看法，以及您預計接下來會進入哪些市場以及這一增長將如何發展？

Yes, China is a -- is not a huge market for us and hasn't been historically. It is something that we expect in the long term will be a big market and ultimately, probably our biggest market. I think there is a lot of long-term opportunity there. It's difficult to say what is going to happen with China in the short term except that it doesn't have a big effect on Tesla yet. Long term, it will be.

是的，中國對我們來說不是一個巨大的市場，歷史上也不是。從長遠來看，我們預計這將是一個大市場，最終可能是我們最大的市場。我認為那裡有很多長期機會。很難說短期內中國會發生什麼，除非它對特斯拉還沒有太大影響。長期來看，會的。

In terms of new markets, I'm real excited to launch in Mexico this year. I will be heading out to Mexico City and we are going to -- I think there is actually quite a bit of opportunity there. Some of our customers -- we actually do have customers in Mexico already, but having a significant presence there I think is going to be great and some of our most supportive customers are actually in Mexico.

在新市場方面，我很高興今年能在墨西哥推出。我將前往墨西哥城，我們將——我認為那裡實際上有很多機會。我們的一些客戶——我們實際上已經在墨西哥有客戶，但我認為在那裡有一個重要的存在會很棒，我們最支持的一些客戶實際上在墨西哥。

A quick follow-up. There's been some rumors and commentary that the Model 3 launch may not be an actual full vehicle. Can you talk about what we should expect at launch's end and at the end of March?

快速跟進。有一些謠言和評論稱，Model 3 的發布可能不是真正的全車。你能談談在發布結束和三月底我們應該期待什麼嗎？

Yes, we are trying to decide whether we should show all the cards or keep a few cards close to the vest. I haven't made the decision yet.

是的，我們正在嘗試決定是否應該展示所有卡片或將幾張卡片靠近背心。我還沒有做出決定。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rod Lache from Deutsche Bank.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

You commented earlier, Elon, on the Model S versus the Model X demanding personal preference on passenger car versus SUV, and I was just wondering if you have any thoughts on whether Model S demand would or could be affected once the Model 3 is revealed? Do you think those vehicles ultimately go to different customers, or is there a plan to avoid cannibalization there?

Elon，您之前評論過 Model S 與 Model X 對乘用車與 SUV 的個人偏好，我只是想知道您是否有任何想法，一旦 Model 3 發布，Model S 的需求是否會或可能會受到影響？你認為這些車輛最終會流向不同的客戶，還是有計劃避免在那裡自相殘殺？

I think they are different market segments. Much as say the BMW 7 series and 5 series are -- they're a different market segment from the 3 series. Makes you think of the Model 3 as a really competing in the BMW 3 series or AUDI A4 market. And if you want the ultimate machine, you really want to get the Model S. But the Model 3 will be a great car.

我認為它們是不同的細分市場。就像寶馬 7 系和 5 系所說的一樣——它們是與 3 係不同的細分市場。讓您將 Model 3 視為真正在寶馬 3 系或奧迪 A4 市場上競爭的車型。如果你想要終極機器，你真的想要 Model S。但 Model 3 將是一輛很棒的車。

Maybe also just as an anecdote. There was a lot of concern when we launched the X of cannibalization of Model S demand. And we actually saw just the opposite, which was the increased interest and awareness and just customer engagement actually drove higher Model S sales, even as the X was launched. And those are actually much closer in terms of vehicle capabilities, as we just talked about.

也許也只是一個軼事。當我們推出蠶食 Model S 需求的 X 時，有很多擔憂。而我們實際上看到的恰恰相反，即興趣和意識的增加以及客戶參與度實際上推動了更高的 Model S 銷量，即使在 X 推出時也是如此。正如我們剛剛談到的，這些實際上在車輛能力方面更接近。

Yes, that makes sense. I was hoping just on the financial side, can you give us just a little bit of a sense of how challenging it would be -- it will be to get to that 25% Model X gross margin? And can you comment at all on how you are expecting for the overall Company gross margins would look this year. Are you expecting them to be able to stay above 25%, even with the Model X ramping?

是的，這是有道理的。我希望只是在財務方面，您能否讓我們稍微了解一下這將是多麼具有挑戰性 - 將達到 25% 的 Model X 毛利率？您能否就您對今年公司整體毛利率的預期發表評論。您是否期望它們能夠保持在 25% 以上，即使在 Model X 爬坡的情況下？

Sure. So, as we said in the letter, 25% by the end of the year for Model X. Sorry. I'm a little under the weather, and 30% for the Model S. You can do the math on what the blended rate will look like. In terms of getting to 25% for Model X, the way you have to think about it, we have many years of history with the Model S right now and that is learning that can certainly be applied to what we are doing with Model X. So, we are comfortable that we are going to be able to drive gross margin in the right direction with Model X significantly throughout the year.

當然。所以，正如我們在信中所說，到年底 Model X 將達到 25%。對不起。我有點不舒服，Model S 30%。你可以計算一下混合率的樣子。就 Model X 的 25% 而言，你必須考慮它的方式，我們現在與 Model S 有多年的歷史，這就是學習，這當然可以應用於我們對 Model X 所做的事情。因此，我們對 Model X 全年將能夠在正確的方向上顯著提高毛利率感到滿意。

Yes, in the long run we expect the gross margins of the S and X to converge around the 30% number, so that they should -- in the long run, both will be around 30%. That is our target. It's just, as Jason was saying, because the X is a newer vehicle, we are earlier in the learning curve for the S than the X.

是的，從長遠來看，我們預計 S 和 X 的毛利率將收斂在 30% 左右，因此它們應該——從長遠來看，兩者都將在 30% 左右。那是我們的目標。正如 Jason 所說，因為 X 是一種較新的車輛，我們在 S 的學習曲線上比 X 更早。

Sounds like it's not -- you are benefiting from some learning curves, so the margins even initially could be okay, north of the 20% range? Is that a reasonable expectation, then ramping up to that level? Or is it a more challenging kind of ramp?

聽起來不是——你從一些學習曲線中受益，所以利潤率甚至最初可能還可以，在 20% 範圍以北？這是一個合理的期望，然後上升到那個水平嗎？還是一種更具挑戰性的坡道？

I really look at it, where does it end up as opposed to what happens in the very near term. It's hard for us to predict exactly where it is in the near term. Think of that S curve, and say, where are you on the S curve? If you have a rapidly changing slope on a curve, it's really hard to say, okay, let's pick a date. Because you could move it by a week and have a huge difference.

我真的看著它，它最終會在哪裡結束，而不是在短期內發生什麼。我們很難準確預測它在短期內的位置。想想那個 S 曲線，然後說，你在 S 曲線的哪個位置？如果你在曲線上有一個快速變化的斜率，真的很難說，好吧，讓我們選擇一個日期。因為你可以將它移動一周並且有很大的不同。

Right.

正確的。

That's why it's hard for us to give you an exact number, but we kind of know where the S curve will end up. And as it starts to asymptote, then it becomes much more predictable.

這就是為什麼我們很難給你一個確切的數字，但我們有點知道 S 曲線會在哪裡結束。隨著它開始漸近線，它變得更加可預測。

Okay. Great, thank you.

好的。太好了謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dana Hull of Bloomberg News. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自彭博新聞社的 Dana Hull。你的線路是開放的。

Thank you very much. As you think out four to five years, to 2020 when you want to produce 500,000 cars each year, can you get there without building another assembly plant or a second Gigafactory?

非常感謝。想想四到五年，到 2020 年，你想每年生產 500,000 輛汽車，你能在不建造另一個裝配廠或第二個 Gigafactory 的情況下實現目標嗎？

Yes. Specifically, the Fremont plant is at historically has produced almost 500,000 cars a year. Whether it was at GM -- I can hear your keys quite loudly. When it was a Toyota GM plant it produced almost 500,000 cars a year. We are comfortable that it can get back to that level. And then the Gigafactory is designed to support 500,000 cars a year worth of batteries plus have15-gigawatt hours left over for stationary storage.

是的。具體來說，弗里蒙特工廠歷史上每年生產近 500,000 輛汽車。無論是在通用汽車公司——我都能聽到你的鑰匙響亮的聲音。當它是豐田通用汽車的工廠時，它每年生產近 500,000 輛汽車。我們很高興它可以回到那個水平。 Gigafactory 的設計目標是每年支持 500,000 輛汽車的電池，另外還有 15 吉瓦時用於固定存儲。

No need for a second Gigafactory (technical difficulty)?

不需要第二個 Gigafactory（技術難度）？

Correct, no need for a Gigafactory, correct.

正確，不需要超級工廠，正確。

And then for Jason, shareholder letter says you plan to open about 80 retail locations and service centers and energize about 300 new super charger locations. Can you give us some commentary on where exactly those new service centers and retail locations might be? Is it mostly the Northeast of the US, or also globally?

然後對於 Jason，股東信中說您計劃開設大約 80 個零售點和服務中心，並為大約 300 個新的超級充電站注入活力。您能否就這些新的服務中心和零售店的具體位置給我們一些評論？它主要是在美國東北部，還是在全球範圍內？

Sure, I think the general theme is two pronged. We are densifying in markets where we already exist and where demand has increased significantly, we have got to put service centers. And we try to actually predict ahead of that where we are going to need those. But as Elon referenced, we are opening new markets this year, but I think in general we are going deeper in markets where we are. And in addition we are opening a significant number of stores in China and in the Northeast of the US as we increase our awareness and our share in those markets. You will see service centers and retail locations opening across all the markets, including Europe.

當然，我認為總體主題是兩方面的。在我們已經存在並且需求顯著增加的市場中，我們正在緻密化，我們必須建立服務中心。我們試圖提前預測我們需要這些的地方。但正如 Elon 所提到的，我們今年將開闢新市場，但我認為總的來說，我們正在深入現有市場。此外，隨著我們在這些市場的知名度和份額的提高，我們正在中國和美國東北部開設大量門店。您將看到服務中心和零售點在包括歐洲在內的所有市場開放。

Why don't we go to the next question.

我們為什麼不去下一個問題。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Ramsey of the Wall Street Journal. Your line is open.

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自華爾街日報的 Mike Ramsey。你的線路是開放的。

Hi. I guess I was hoping you could give me an encapsulated feeling on the quarter. It's a mixed bag from an outsider's perspective. The losses were pretty high and maybe higher than what people expected, but you are giving a very aggressive forecast. Do did you feel like the Company is on the right track and that you are past some of your hiccups? I'm looking for a 40,000-foot analysis.

你好。我想我希望你能給我一個關於這個季度的概括的感覺。從局外人的角度來看，這是一個混合包。損失相當高，可能高於人們的預期，但你給出的預測非常激進。您是否覺得公司走在正確的軌道上並且您已經克服了一些問題？我正在尋找 40,000 英尺的分析。

Yes, I feel very good about things right now. The last several months have been quite excruciating, I would say. Many late nights and weekends. But I think we are through the worst of it at this point.

是的，我現在對事情感覺很好。我想說，過去幾個月非常痛苦。許多深夜和周末。但我認為我們目前已經度過了最糟糕的時期。

Okay. And I had wanted to ask a little bit about also your plans for consolidation. Dana asked whether the Gigafactory could handle the Model 3. I am curious. I haven't been there. There are so many folks working over there now that aren't even building cars. You have engineers and stuff there. Can you give me a little idea about whether and when you might have to think about consolidating your operations in the Bay Area? Excuse me. I'm a little under the weather as well.

好的。我還想問一下你們的整合計劃。 Dana 問 Gigafactory 是否可以處理 Model 3。我很好奇。我沒去過那裡。現在有很多人在那里工作，甚至連汽車都不造。你那裡有工程師和東西。您能否告訴我一些關於您是否以及何時可能需要考慮整合您在灣區的業務的想法？打擾一下。我也有點不舒服。

I'm not sure what you mean by consolidating. We are spread out because in addition to Fremont factory complex and our headquarters in Palo Alto, we do have a number of other facilities in the Bay Area. But man, I'm not sure how we would consolidate. We would have to build a real big facility for that.

我不確定你所說的合併是什麼意思。我們之所以分散，是因為除了弗里蒙特工廠綜合體和我們在帕洛阿爾託的總部，我們在灣區還有許多其他設施。但是，伙計，我不確定我們將如何整合。我們必須為此建造一個真正的大型設施。

You might just keep taking over buildings all around. Okay. All right. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

您可能只是繼續接管周圍的建築物。好的。好的。非常感謝。欣賞它。

Okay. Yes, I think 7 million square feet of real estate at this point around the Bay Area, something like that.

好的。是的，我認為目前灣區周圍有 700 萬平方英尺的房地產，類似的。

And we've seen the Gigafactory actually being a helpful pressure outlet for some things in the Bay Area.

我們已經看到 Gigafactory 實際上是灣區某些事情的有用壓力出口。

Plus expansion in the Lathrop/Stockton area.

加上在 Lathrop/Stockton 地區的擴張。

Going the other way.

走另一條路。

Latiffe, next question, please?

拉蒂夫，下一個問題，好嗎？

Next question is from Dee-Ann Durbin of Associated Press. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自美聯社的 Dee-Ann Durbin。你的線路是開放的。

Hi, thanks for taking the call. Considering now that the Chevy Volt is going to go on sale at the end of this year, so that will be a full year that it's on sale before Model 3 arrives, has it taken any wind out of your sails? Or do you think, again, that these are very different customers? If you are comparing to an AUDI A4, for example, are people still going to be attracted to the Model 3, even though they will have that option on the market quite a while before the Model 3 arrives?

您好，感謝您接聽電話。考慮到雪佛蘭 Volt 將在今年年底開始銷售，因此在 Model 3 到貨之前將是整整一年的銷售時間，它是否讓你的風帆失去了動力？或者您是否再次認為這些是非常不同的客戶？例如，如果您將其與奧迪 A4 進行比較，那麼人們是否仍然會被 Model 3 所吸引，即使他們在 Model 3 上市之前很長時間就會在市場上擁有這種選擇？

Well, I would point you to the market share of large luxury vehicles, or large premium sedan sales in the US that I talked about earlier in the call. We currently outsell everyone in that category. And had a 51% market growth last year where everyone else declined and the market as a whole declined. If Model 3 is at all similar in its market segment, it doesn't seem like we are going to be demand constrained.

好吧，我想指出我在電話會議早些時候談到的美國大型豪華車或大型高檔轎車的市場份額。我們目前的銷量超過了該類別中的所有人。去年市場增長了 51%，而其他所有人都在下降，整個市場也在下降。如果 Model 3 在其細分市場中完全相似，那麼我們似乎不會受到需求限制。

Okay. And I know you don't do any marketing, but I'm wondering if you would ever possibly reconsider that? It struck me when you were saying that you aren't where you could be on the East Coast, and that may be because people need some more educating about how the car performs in the snow or whatever. Do you think there is ever a point at which you might reconsider and do some very targeted marketing in places where you think you could do better?

好的。我知道你不做任何營銷，但我想知道你是否會重新考慮這一點？當你說你不在東海岸的地方時，我感到很震驚，這可能是因為人們需要更多關於汽車在雪地中的表現或其他方面的教育。您是否認為在某個時候您可能會重新考慮並在您認為可以做得更好的地方進行一些非常有針對性的營銷？

Yes, I don't think it's in the -- we'll do that in the near term, but in the long term, I think I could see us doing advertising where that advertising was interesting, entertaining and people don't regret seeing it, which unfortunately is not the case for most advertising. So, if there is something interesting and artistic or like it's entertaining, we don't waste people's time if they saw it. And also, I think we need to have a more affordable high-volume car before that makes sense, like the Model 3, so it is more accessible. If we do mass media, it's more likely that somebody could buy the car. That is when it would be something that we would consider.

是的，我不認為它在——我們會在短期內這樣做，但從長遠來看，我認為我可以看到我們在做廣告的地方很有趣，很有趣，人們不會後悔看到不幸的是，大多數廣告並非如此。所以，如果有一些有趣的、藝術的或喜歡它的娛樂性的東西，如果他們看到了，我們不會浪費他們的時間。而且，我認為在有意義之前，我們需要有一輛更實惠的大容量汽車，比如 Model 3，所以它更容易獲得。如果我們做大眾媒體，更有可能有人會買這輛車。那是我們會考慮的事情。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, our next question is from the line of Phil LeBeau of CNBC. Your line is open.

謝謝，我們的下一個問題來自 CNBC 的 Phil LeBeau。你的線路是開放的。

Thank you. Elon, I'm curious if you are noticing any impact in terms of reservations, orders, in terms of the market volatility that we are seeing, the growing questions about instability in our economy, elsewhere, fall off in the wealth effect, if you will. Are you guys noticing any slow down in the pace of orders?

謝謝你。埃隆，我很好奇你是否注意到預訂、訂單、我們所看到的市場波動方面的任何影響，關於我們經濟不穩定的日益增長的問題，其他地方，財富效應下降，如果你將要。你們是否注意到訂單的速度有所放緩？

Jon, do you want to --

喬恩，你想——

Phil, it's a great question and actually, the answer is no, the demand is very strong. We are up significantly over 2014 in the same period. And for both S and X, we -- both the order rate on S and the conversion rate to orders on X has been very strong. And we are not seeing that impact at this point in time across really all of our markets, both domestic and international.

菲爾，這是一個很好的問題，實際上，答案是否定的，需求非常強烈。在同一時期，我們比 2014 年大幅增長。對於 S 和 X，我們 - S 上的訂單率和 X 上的訂單轉化率都非常高。而且我們目前還沒有在我們所有的市場上看到這種影響，無論是國內市場還是國際市場。

That said, we don't want to be complacent about demand generation. And as we mentioned, there is a bunch of stores opening in markets where we really haven't had a store or any kind of meaningful store. Our store in Manhattan, you basically need to be Sherlock Holmes to find it. Unless you hunt us down, you won't find the store.

也就是說，我們不想對需求產生自滿。正如我們所提到的，有很多商店在我們真的沒有商店或任何有意義的商店的市場開業。我們在曼哈頓的商店，你基本上需要成為福爾摩斯才能找到它。除非你追捕我們，否則你找不到這家商店。

I think we obviously need to change that and put stores where people are likely to encounter them. Like a fishing boat or something, you want to be where the fish are. Not in some sort of random barren location. So, that's kind of what we are doing. We are not complacent about demand, and just in case we see things take a turn for the worse, we want to overshoot our demand generation by our stores.

我認為我們顯然需要改變這一點，並將商店放在人們可能會遇到的地方。就像一艘漁船什麼的，你想成為有魚的地方。不是在某種隨機貧瘠的地方。所以，這就是我們正在做的事情。我們對需求並不自滿，以防萬一我們看到情況變得更糟，我們希望通過我們的商店超越我們的需求產生。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right, everyone. That concludes the Q&A session of the call. Thank you so much for joining us today, and we look forward to seeing you all in the future.

好吧，大家。電話的問答環節到此結束。非常感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在未來與大家見面。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, you may disconnect your lines at this time. That does conclude your call. Have a great day.

女士們，先生們，您可以在這個時候斷開您的線路。這確實結束了您的通話。祝你有美好的一天。