特斯拉 (TSLA) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加特斯拉 2017 年第二季財務業績問答電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Mr. Evanson, you may now begin.

現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人傑夫·埃文森先生。埃文森先生，現在可以開始了。

Thank you, Sharie, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's second quarter 2017 Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk; J.B. Straubel; Deepak Ahuja; and Jon McNeill.

謝謝你，Sharie，大家下午好。歡迎收聽特斯拉 2017 年第二季問答網路直播。今天與我一起參加的還有伊隆馬斯克 (Elon Musk)、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja 和喬恩麥克尼爾 (Jon McNeill)。

Our Q2 results were announced 80 minutes ago in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們的第二季業績已於 80 分鐘前在與本次網路廣播相同的連結中發布的更新信中公佈。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於多種風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions) But before we jump into the Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

（操作員指示）但在我們進入問答環節之前，伊隆有一些開場白。埃隆？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Yes, apparently, we're having trouble hearing Elon. Try a different microphone.

是的，顯然我們聽不懂 Elon 的話。嘗試不同的麥克風。

Hear me?

聽見了嗎？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

We're getting messages from dealers that they cannot hear Elon.

我們收到經銷商的消息說他們聽不到 Elon 的消息。

I can hear you, Mr. Evanson, so if he can speak from your microphone, you're coming in loud and clear.

埃文森先生，我能聽到您的聲音，如果他能透過麥克風講話，那就表示您的聲音很響亮、很清晰。

All right, we'll try that.

好的，我們會嘗試的。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Sharie, are we in the call now?

Sharie，我們現在通話中嗎？

Yes, your line is open.

是的，您的線路已開通。

All right. Thank you. All right. We apologize, everyone. (Operator Instructions) Elon, over to you.

好的。謝謝。好的。各位，我們深感抱歉。（操作員指示）埃隆，交給你了。

All right. Thank you. My apologies. We actually tried a new audio system with a bunch of individual mics. That seems to have malfunctioned, so we went back to our standard conference call object. Anyway, just want to confirm, people can hear what I am saying. Okay, great.

好的。謝謝。我很抱歉。我們實際上嘗試了一種具有多組獨立麥克風的新音訊系統。這似乎出現了故障，所以我們回到了標準的電話會議對象。無論如何，只是想確認一下，人們能聽到我在說什麼。好的，太好了。

So first of all, I want to say that Friday night was an amazing time for Tesla. It was the -- one of the most important days in the history of the company. It's something we've been striving for, for 14 years. It's the car that we've -- the Model 3 -- hanging with us [30] production Model 3s was just an incredible milestone in the company's history. We wanted to make a great, affordable electric car, which is the fundamental thing that is missing.

首先，我想說週五晚上對特斯拉來說是一個令人驚嘆的時刻。這是公司歷史上最重要的日子之一。這是我們十四年來一直努力追求的目標。這就是我們一直在生產的汽車——Model 3——[30] Model 3 的量產是公司歷史上一個不可思議的里程碑。我們想要製造一款優質、價格實惠的電動車，而這正是我們所缺少的基本要素。

We wanted to make that from day one. And if we could only have done it sooner, we would have. And I'm glad that this day has come. What we have ahead of us, of course, is an incredibly difficult production ramp. Nonetheless, I think we've got a great team. And I'm very confident that we'll be able to reach a production rate of 10,000 vehicles per week towards the end of next year. And we remain, we believe, on track to achieve a 5,000-unit week by the end of this year.

我們從第一天起就想做到這一點。如果我們能早點這麼做，我們早就這麼做了。我很高興這一天的到來。當然，我們面臨的是極為困難的生產提升。儘管如此，我認為我們擁有一支出色的團隊。我非常有信心，到明年年底，我們將能夠達到每週 10,000 輛汽車的生產力。我們相信，我們仍有望在今年年底前實現每週銷售 5,000 台的目標。

So I would certainly urge people to not get too caught up in what exactly falls within the exact calendar boundaries of a quarter, one quarter over the next, because when you have an exponentially growing production ramp, slight changes of a few weeks here or there can appear to have dramatic changes, but that is simply because of the arbitrary nature of the -- of when a quarter ends.

因此，我肯定會敦促人們不要太糾結於一個季度、一個季度接著一個季度的具體日曆界限，因為當你的產量呈指數級增長時，這里或那裡幾週的細微變化可能會產生巨大的變化，但這僅僅是因為一個季度結束時間的任意性。

So -- but what people should absolutely have 0 concern about, 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000-unit production week by the end of next year. So if you can sort of say where we came from, the Roadster, where we were making only 600 units a week, where the nonpowertrain portion of the car was made by Lotus. And we did the powertrain and the final assembly of the car, and then we went from that to 20,000 units a year of the Model S, a far more complex car where we did the whole thing. And then we -- with Model 3, even more vertically integrated. I think people should really not have any concerns that we will reach that outcome from a production rate.

所以——但人們絕對不應該擔心的是，特斯拉將在明年年底實現每週 10,000 輛的產量。所以如果你能說說我們的起源，Roadster，我們每週只生產 600 輛，其中汽車的非動力傳動系統部分是由 Lotus 製造的。我們完成了汽車的動力傳動系統和最終組裝，然後我們每年生產 20,000 輛 Model S，這是一款複雜得多的汽車，我們包辦了整個生產過程。然後我們——透過 Model 3，實現了更垂直的整合。我認為人們真的不應該擔心我們會從生產力上達到這樣的結果。

We're also very confident about costs. We feel we gained a lot of experience. We certainly aspire to learn from the mistakes of the past. And I think we largely have. Deepak will go into some of our margin expectations there. And unlike, say for example, the Model X, where the mistake that we made, I obviously take primary responsibility here, was having far too much advanced technology in version 1 of a product, it's an -- Model X is an incredible car, but it was overreaching for the first generation of a product. But in the case of the Model 3, we've strived hard to simplify and make sure that it has everything that's necessary to be a fantastic car. If you see the reviews, the reviews are -- you really could -- one could not ask for better reviews.

我們對成本也非常有信心。我們覺得我們獲得了很多經驗。我們當然渴望從過去的錯誤中學習。我認為我們基本上已經做到了。Deepak 將介紹我們的一些利潤預期。而與 Model X 不同的是，我們犯的錯誤是，在產品的第一版中採用了太多先進技術，這顯然是我的主要責任，Model X 是一款令人難以置信的汽車，但對於第一代產品來說，它有些過度了。但就 Model 3 而言，我們努力簡化並確保它具備成為出色汽車所需的一切。如果您看到評論，您會發現這些評論——您真的可以——​​沒有人能要求更好的評論。

And I'll just sort of give you one little anecdote, which was -- which I found quite surprising is that when we were giving test drives to -- or tests -- the journalists were doing -- were driving the car and doing test drives. About 80% of the journalists said that they would buy the car themselves. Most of the remaining 20% said probably. This is crazy. I've never seen anything like it. So this is a very good sign.

我只想告訴你一個小故事，我發現這很令人驚訝，當我們進行試駕或測試時，記者們正在駕駛汽車並進行試駕。約有80%的記者表示會自己買車。其餘 20% 的人大多表示「可能」。這太瘋狂了。我從來沒有見過這樣的事情。所以這是一個非常好的跡象。

It should also be noted that one of our big concerns was that Model S, particularly, and Model X demand would suffer with the introduction of the 3. In fact, this has turned out to be the opposite situation. Model S and X demand increased with the release of 3.

還應該指出的是，我們最大的擔憂之一是，隨著 3 的推出，Model S 和 Model X 的需求會受到影響。事實上，情況恰恰相反。隨著 3 的發布，Model S 和 X 的需求增加。

Jon, would you like to just elaborate on that? There was -- we did express this as a concern, and it was a big concern, but it has turned out to be a pleasant surprise.

喬恩，你能詳細說明一下嗎？我們確實表達了對此的擔憂，而且這是一個很大的擔憂，但結果卻是一個驚喜。

Yes, I think that's right. Not only, as Elon said, we expressed it as a concern. We had positive comps both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter and in orders in the second quarter. But since then, orders have accelerated in July as we noted in our shareholder letter. And it accelerated further since the handover event on Friday for the Model 3.

是的，我認為是這樣。不僅如此，正如埃隆所說，我們對此表示擔憂。與去年同期相比，我們的銷售額和訂單量都出現了環比增長，而第二季度的訂單量也出現了環比增長。但自那時起，正如我們在股東信中指出的那樣，7 月訂單量有所加速。自周五 Model 3 交接儀式以來，這一增長勢頭進一步加速。

So it clearly shows that S and X as our flagship products have a strong position in the market and strong demand. And that's super encouraging that we've got those -- a strong product lineup with 3 cars that are proving to be very popular in their individual segments.

因此，這清楚地表明，S 和 X 作為我們的旗艦產品在市場上佔有強勢地位，並且需求旺盛。我們擁有如此強大的產品陣容，其中三款車型在各自的領域中都非常受歡迎，這非常令人鼓舞。

Yes. In fact, I don't know -- I think we mentioned some of this in the earnings letter, but just some of the key stats on July orders for S and X were...

是的。事實上，我不知道——我想我們在收益信中提到了其中的一些內容，但 S 和 X 7 月訂單的一些關鍵統計數據是…

Yes. July orders were 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate, so we've accelerated off of Q2 into July. And as we noted in the shareholder letter, deliveries grew by 53% compared to the Q2 '16 in a flat luxury vehicle market. So we're gaining share in a flat to market down -- to down market, and the order rate's accelerated.

是的。7 月份的訂單量比第二季的平均每週訂單量高出 15%，因此，從第二季到 7 月份，我們的訂單量已經加速成長。正如我們在股東信中指出的，在豪華車市場表現平平的情況下，交付量與 2016 年第二季相比成長了 53%。因此，我們在平穩至下滑的市場中獲得了份額，而且訂單率也在加快。

Yes. So July was one of our best months ever.

是的。因此，七月是我們有史以來最好的月份之一。

Yes.

是的。

Again, contrary to our expectations, I want to emphasize. Of course, we know who knows if this will continue, but all indications are that it will, so that's very exciting.

再次，我想強調的是，這與我們的預期相反。當然，我們知道誰知道這種情況是否會持續下去，但所有跡像都表明它會持續下去，所以這非常令人興奮。

As a side note, we're also making great progress on our internal Autopilot software. It's getting better and better. I'm really, really excited. I test drive the latest development release as soon as it comes out, and I'm like, this is really getting to be something special. Because, yes, it's really -- and I think it's going to accelerate from here. And the talent that we're seeing drawing on the technical side for Autopilot is really world class. I don't think there's -- it's unmatched anywhere, I would say.

順便說一句，我們的內部自動駕駛軟體也取得了很大進展。越來越好了。我真的非常非常興奮。最新開發版本一發布我就試用了它，我覺得這確實是一件很特別的事。因為，是的，它確實如此——而且我認為它會從現在開始加速。我們看到，自動駕駛儀技術方面的人才確實是世界一流的。我不認為有——我想說，它在任何地方都是無與倫比的。

So let's see then. Model 3 orders are -- net-net orders, there's not that many cancellations, there are about 1,800 a day. It's important to emphasize, there -- you can't see the car unless you want to look at pictures online, you can't test drive the car. You have to put down a $1,000 deposit.

那麼就讓我們來看看吧。Model 3 的訂單是淨訂單，取消的訂單不多，每天大約有 1,800 輛。需要強調的是，除非您想在線查看圖片，否則您無法看到汽車，也無法試駕汽車。您必須支付 1,000 美元的押金。

We're not promoting the car.

我們不是在推銷這輛車。

We're not promoting the car. If you go to our stores, we don't even want to talk about it really and -- because we want to talk about the thing that we can supply. If somebody orders a Model 3 now, it's probably late next year before they get it. We want to give people the car where it's like maybe a 1- or 2-month wait for an S or an X. And I think the point that we're trying to make that the S is still a superior sedan seems to come through -- and it is true. Things get a little confusing because of the nomenclature of being Model 3, but Model S and X, which is I guess sort of my fault being too quick -- too clever for my own good there, because it was supposed to be the Model E. As you can tell, I have a wonderful sense of humor, and -- but then people mistook that for generation 3. But in fact, if you look at, say -- what we're really on right now, I would say is approximately generation 4. But we're on generation 4 of S, X and 3 at the risk of really confusing matters. Model 3 is generation 4 and so -- but so are S and X. We evolve the technology all at the same time. So overall looking really good.

我們不是在推銷這輛車。如果你去我們的商店，我們甚至不想真正談論它——因為我們想談論我們可以提供的東西。如果有人現在訂購 Model 3，那麼可能要到明年年底才能收到。我們想讓人們等上一兩個月才能買到 S 或 X 這樣的車。我想我們試圖表達的觀點是，S 仍然是一款高級轎車，這似乎已經達到了——事實也確實如此。事情變得有點混亂，因為 Model 3 的命名法與 Model S 和 X 有點相似，我想這可能是我的錯，我太快了——太聰明了，因為它應該是 Model E。正如你所看到的，我很有幽默感，但後來人們把它誤認為是第三代。但事實上，如果你看一下——我們現在真正處於的，我會說大約是第四代。但我們處於 S、X 和 3 的第四代，這可能會造成混淆。Model 3 是第四代，S 和 X 也是。我們同時發展技術。所以整體看起來非常好。

And then Solar Roof. We have installed and working the Solar Roof tiles. I have it on my house. J.B. has it on his house. We have -- I think we included some of the pictures in the earnings letter. I want to be -- I want to emphasize those are un -- the roof, there's no Photoshop-ing on the roof. That is actually how it looks. And it wasn't taken by some amaze -- it was like take some pics with your phone and send them over. That's what we're talking about here, not some special lighting conditions, pro photographer art situation. And this is version 1. I think this roof's going to look really knockout as we just keep iterating.

然後是太陽能屋頂。我們已經安裝並開始使用太陽能屋頂瓦片。我家裡就有。J.B. 家裡就有它。我們有—我想我們在收益信中附上了一些圖片。我想——我想強調的是那些是屋頂，屋頂上沒有經過 Photoshop 處理的照片。事實確實如此。這並不是透過某種方式拍攝的——而是用手機拍一些照片然後發送過來的。這就是我們在這裡談論的，而不是一些特殊的光照條件，專業攝影師的藝術情況。這是版本 1。我認為隨著我們不斷迭代，這個屋頂看起來會非常漂亮。

Now it is a very challenging technical task to get this right, get the costs good, streamline the installation process, ramp up the production. Again, this is sort of -- it follows some of the S-curve to vehicles where it starts up very slow -- it starts up very slow, but then it grows exponentially.

現在，正確完成這項工作、控製成本、簡化安裝流程、提高產量是一項非常具有挑戰性的技術任務。再說一次，這有點像——它遵循車輛的某些 S 曲線，啟動時速度非常慢——它啟動時速度非常慢，但隨後呈指數增長。

Also, our conventional solar is doing quite well and generating significant positive cash flow, standard flat panel stuff, which I think is solar the right solution for any product to -- for any kind of flat roof situation, which is most commercial installations on a lot of houses or some part of the roof where it's just really not visible and, therefore, does not have any aesthetic -- it doesn't really matter from an aesthetic standpoint.

此外，我們的傳統太陽能表現相當不錯，產生了顯著的正現金流，標準平板產品，我認為太陽能是任何產品的正確解決方案——適用於任何類型的平屋頂情況，即許多房屋上的大多數商業設施或屋頂的某些部分，它真的不可見，因此，沒有任何美感——從美學角度來看，這並不重要。

And then batteries are also making great, great progress in the battery front. I'm hoping to do something around the International Astronautical Congress, which is in Adelaide this year, but not promising anything. But we're aspirationally going to have a very substantial portion of the battery pack already done in about 8 weeks, which is hard because this -- we have all the shipping and logistic challenges of getting things across the Pacific. I'm not promising anything. It's an aspirational goal. Team's working super hard to make it happen. But I'm excited by the prospect, and I feel, of course, optimistic that, that will take place.

電池領域也取得了巨大的進步。我希望在今年於阿德萊德舉行的國際宇航大會上做些事情，但不承諾任何事情。但我們的目標是在大約 8 週的時間內完成電池組的大部分工作，這很困難，因為我們面臨著將物品運送到太平洋彼岸的各種運輸和物流挑戰。我沒有承諾任何事。這是一個令人嚮往的目標。團隊正在非常努力地實現這一目標。但我對這一前景感到興奮，當然，我也樂觀地認為這將會發生。

So yes, really, I think -- and we're really proud of the Tesla team for getting to this point. And we want to thank the whole Tesla team. We already have 33,000 people at this point who are working hard to achieve some very difficult things. And I can be proud to work with such a great team.

所以是的，真的，我認為——我們為特斯拉團隊達到這一點感到非常自豪。我們要感謝整個特斯拉團隊。目前我們已經有 33,000 名員工正在努力實現一些非常困難的事情。我很自豪能與這樣一支優秀的團隊共事。

So let's maybe go to -- anything else you want to add, guys? All right, let's go to questions.

那麼就讓我們開始吧──大家還有什麼要補充的嗎？好的，我們開始提問。

All right. Sharie, let's open it up to Q&A. (Operator Instructions)

好的。Sharie，我們開始問答環節。（操作員指示）

Yes, not the 1 question with 8 nested questions.

是的，不是 1 個嵌套 8 個問題的問題。

Correct. No nesting.

正確的。無嵌套。

One question, Part A through H.

一個問題，A 部分至 H 部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge Research.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自消費者優勢研究公司的詹姆斯·阿爾伯丁。

Congratulations on the first 30 deliveries last week. It was a great event. Wanted to ask, if I may, my one question on capital expenditures. Wanted to get an idea. What comes next with respect to some of your spending on the Model 3? And then, I guess, if I can nest one in related to Gigafactory. It's one question on CapEx but really want to understand what the big next steps are in 3Q and 4Q as we start to kind of build out our models and figure it out from there.

恭喜上週完成前 30 次送貨。這是一次偉大的事件。如果可以的話，我想問一個關於資本支出的問題。想要得到一個想法。您在 Model 3 上的支出接下來會怎麼樣？然後，我想，如果我可以嵌套一個與 Gigafactory 相關的內容。這是關於資本支出的問題，但我們真正想了解的是，當我們開始建立模型並從那裡找出答案時，第三季和第四季的下一步大舉措是什麼。

Certainly. I mean, I do want to emphasize, like, the -- a lot of this is actually very hard for us to know. When we make mistakes, it's because we're stupid not because we're trying to mislead anyone. I just want to emphasize, I, we, sort of we aspire to be less dumb over time. So if I knew it, I would tell you. It's not like I've got this like secret hand of cards that I'm holding close to my vest, and I'm not telling you. It's just fundamentally impossible to predict the exponential part of the manufacturing S-curve. It's crazy hard.

當然。我的意思是，我確實想強調，很多事情我們其實很難知道。當我們犯錯時，那是因為我們愚蠢，而不是因為我們試圖誤導任何人。我只是想強調，我，我們，我們都渴望隨著時間的推移變得不那麼愚蠢。所以如果我知道的話，我會告訴你。這並不是說我手上有秘密的牌，而是我不會告訴你的。從根本上來說，預測製造業 S 曲線的指數部分是不可能的。這太難了。

And S-curve is a simplification because it's really running through a series of constraints that, if you -- and so it's like a really jagged sort of upward growth, and it'll plateau, and then it'll grow rapidly, and it'll plateau again. And then sometimes it'll go backwards because something broke. When I said manufacturing hell on -- and supply chain hell on Friday, I meant it. I mean -- but we know this. Signed up for it, not blaming hell because we bought the ticket.

S 曲線是一種簡化，因為它實際上要經歷一系列約束，如果你 - 所以它就像一種真正鋸齒狀的向上增長，它會達到穩定狀態，然後它會快速增長，然後它會再次達到穩定狀態。但有時它會倒退，因為有些東西壞了。當我周五說製造業將陷入困境，供應鏈也將陷入困境時，我是認真的。我的意思是——但我們知道這一點。報名了，因為我們買了票，所以不會怪罪地獄。

So I -- but I think at a high level, I don't think we should expect any significant negative surprises. There will be -- as you look at the case, there tends to be some cost growth in CapEx for unexpected things. We've got to expedite this. You've got to fix that. Or this supplier doesn't work out. Or this machine we bought doesn't work out. And you've got to be all hands on deck 24/7 to fix it or replace it. But I don't expect any significant -- I think that it's relatively contained. Deepak, do you want to...

所以我——但我認為從高層次來看，我們不應該期待任何重大的負面意外。正如您所看到的，由於意外因素，資本支出往往會出現一些成本增長。我們必須加快這一進程。你必須解決這個問題。或是這個供應商不行。或者我們買的這台機器不能用。而且你必須每週 7 天、每天 24 小時待在甲板上修理或更換它。但我並不期待任何重大的——我認為它相對來說是可以控制的。迪帕克，你想…

Yes, I mean, I think maybe the other way, James, to answer your question is...

是的，我的意思是，詹姆斯，我想也許用另一種方​​式來回答你的問題是...

You may need to talk close to this.

您可能需要仔細談論這一點。

Yes, I think you're asking where we're spending the money. I think it's in the completion of the Model 3. We are paying off on the equipment. And also we're just continuing with the construction of Gigafactory to continue to scale that, and so that's where majority of our capital...

是的，我想你問的是我們把錢花在哪裡了。我認為這是 Model 3 的完成。我們正在償還設備費用。而且我們正在繼續建造超級工廠以繼續擴大規模，這就是我們的大部分資金投入的地方...

Overwhelmingly. Let's be fair. Overwhelmingly is Model 3. Obviously, there are expenditures associated with Solar Roof, and with our Buffalo factory, we're trying to keep those relatively light for the next few months.

壓倒性地。讓我們公平一點。絕大多數是 Model 3。顯然，太陽能屋頂也會產生一些支出，而對於我們的布法羅工廠來說，我們正努力在接下來的幾個月裡將這些支出保持在相對較低水平。

Yes. And the marketing and sales are growing our infrastructure there and our Supercharging networks, so those are the other small pieces.

是的。行銷和銷售正在擴大我們在那裡的基礎設施和超級充電網絡，所以這些是其他的小部分。

Yes. But just on Buffalo, if I may, I really want to emphasize we expect the Buffalo Gigafactory to be a powerhouse of solar panel and solar glass tile output. It is going to be a kickass facility. We've made that commitment to the state of New York. We are going to keep that commitment. So -- and then we're also thinking hard about where do we put Gigafactories 3, 4, 5 and 6. We expect to keep the majority of our production in the U.S. and -- but, it's obviously going to make sense to establish a Gigafactory in China and Europe, just to serve the markets there because it's not too -- (inaudible) in California and truck them halfway around the world, particularly when you're trying to make things as affordable as possible, that really hurt.

是的。但就布法羅而言，如果可以的話，我真的想強調一下，我們預計布法羅超級工廠將成為太陽能電池板和太陽能玻璃瓦片產量的強大動力。這將會是一座非常棒的設施。我們已經向紐約州做出了這項承諾。我們將履行這項承諾。所以——然後我們也在認真思考將超級工廠 3、4、5 和 6 放在哪裡。我們預計大部分生產將在美國進行——但是，在中國和歐洲建立超級工廠顯然是有意義的，只是為了服務那裡的市場，因為它不太——（聽不清）在加利福尼亞，然後把它們運到地球的另一端，特別是當你試圖讓產品盡可能便宜的時候，這真的很傷人。

We really want to get -- make our cars as affordable as possible, and so that does require some amount of local market production, particularly for the mass market vehicles in order to make it as accessible as possible. So we think hard about that. I think we'll have some announcements on at least a few of those locations before the end of the year. But we don't expect to spend significant money on them. Just it's identifying the location, doing the long lead-time stuff, the permits, the planning. This doesn't cost a lot of money. It's only when you really start moving dirt and putting up concrete and steel and buying equipment that the big money starts to be required. Yes. So, anything you want to add on that?

我們確實希望——讓我們的汽車盡可能便宜，因此這確實需要一定數量的本地市場生產，特別是對於大眾市場汽車，以使其盡可能地普及。所以我們認真思考了這個問題。我認為我們將在今年年底之前至少對其中幾個地點發布一些公告。但我們並不打算在它們身上花太多的錢。只是確定位置，做一些長期準備、許可和規劃。這不需要花很多錢。只有當你真正開始搬運泥土、澆築混凝土和鋼筋併購買設備時，才開始需要大筆資金。是的。那麼，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

It's good.

很好。

CapEx on Model S and X is pretty -- it's like really not -- it's minor compared to -- yes, yes, yes. There is continued improvement, of course, to keep pace with Model 3 so that all of our products are at the same level of technology, but it's small potatoes compared to the Model 3.

Model S 和 X 的資本支出相當——真的不是——相比之下很小——是的，是的，是的。當然，為了跟上 Model 3 的步伐，我們不斷改進，以便所有產品都處於同一技術水平，但與 Model 3 相比，這只是小巫見大巫。

And you're continuing to achieve cost reductions in S and X, so there's a bit of investment but (inaudible).

而且您正在繼續降低 S 和 X 的成本，因此有一些投資，但（聽不清楚）。

Yes, exactly. Absolutely. And in cases where we see cost reductions in S and X, there are cases where we want to pass along some of those cost reductions to customers. So yes, so overall feeling really -- this is like maybe the best I've ever felt about Tesla, to be frank. It's like really -- I mean, last week stressed the hell out of me, but I really think that this is -- this is probably the best I've ever felt about the company.

是的，確實如此。絕對地。當我們看到 S 和 X 的成本降低時，我們希望將部分成本降低轉嫁給客戶。是的，整體感覺——坦白說，這可能是我對特斯拉最好的感覺。這真的就像——我的意思是，上週我壓力很大，但我真的認為這是——這可能是我對公司最好的感覺。

And -- oh and one thing I wanted to correct. I think in a prior call, publicly I had said that Model Y or our compact SUV, which is called Model Y, may or may not be -- would be totally architecture. I've gone -- I've decided -- well, upon the counsel of my executive team, thank you, thank you, thanks, guys, who reeled me back from the Cliffs of Insanity, much appreciated, the Model Y will, in fact, be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring it to market faster. Yes. So that will really accelerate our ability to get Model Y to market faster for -- because it's fundamentally to -- you have people who prefer a sedan, people who prefer an SUV and, in fact, the SUV market is larger which is the biggest single product I believe in the world. So which I thank my executive team for stopping me from being a fool. And yes. The Model Y, what the hell, will be -- have relatively low technical and production reschedule result.

而且——哦，還有一件事我想糾正一下。我想在之前的一次電話會議中，我曾公開表示，Model Y 或我們的緊湊型 SUV（稱為 Model Y）可能是也可能不是——完全是架構。我已經決定了——好吧，根據我的執行團隊的建議，謝謝你們，謝謝你們，你們把我從瘋狂的懸崖邊拉了回來，非常感謝，事實上，Model Y 將使用 Model 3 的大量延續，以便更快地將其推向市場。是的。因此，這將真正加速我們將 Model Y 推向市場的能力——因為從根本上來說——有人喜歡轎車，有人喜歡 SUV，事實上，SUV 市場更大，我相信它是世界上最大的單一產品。因此，我感謝我的執行團隊阻止我犯傻。是的。不管怎樣，Model Y 的技術含量和生產重新安排結果都會相對較低。

I still think we want to do the crazy thing in the future, but we will punt that to after the model -- until after the compact SUV. Anything else that you think (inaudible). So yes, we'll try to leave as much time for questions as we can. We have a lot of operational issues to get back to but like to make work on that manufacturing ramp, and I'm always incredibly grateful for anyone who has -- who is an investor in Tesla. You put your faith in us. We will do whatever is necessary to reward that faith.

我仍然認為我們將來會做一些瘋狂的事情，但我們會把它推遲到車型推出之後——直到緊湊型 SUV 推出之後。您還有什麼想法嗎（聽不清楚）。是的，我們會盡量留出盡可能多的時間來回答問題。我們有很多營運問題需要解決，但我們願意在製造過程中開展工作，我總是非常感謝所有為特斯拉提供資金的投資者。您信任我們。我們將盡一切努力回報這份信任。

Our next question comes from Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅德·拉赫 (Rod Lache)。

I was going to ask you which is harder, AI or AV. But I think at this point, we may not know the answer.

我本來想問你，AI 和 AV 哪個比較難。但我認為目前我們可能還不知道答案。

Well, as you know, I'm terrified of AI.

嗯，正如你所知，我很害怕人工智慧。

I've read that.

我讀過那本。

Yes, you may have heard that in a few places, and it's just something we -- anyway, I definitely don't want to derail the conversation on that front. It's just something that I think anything that represents -- that is a risk to the public deserves at least insight from the government because one of the mandates of the government is the public well-being, and that's -- insight is different from oversight. So it's just -- at least the government can gain insight to understand what's going on and then decide what rules are appropriate to ensure public safety. That is what I'm advocating for. I'm not advocating for that we stop development of AI or any of the sort of straw man hyperbole, things that have been written, I do think there are great benefits to AI. We just need to make sure that they are indeed benefits and we don't do something really dumb.

是的，你可能在某些地方聽說過這個，這只是我們——無論如何，我絕對不想讓這方面的談話偏離主題。我只是認為，任何對公眾構成風險的事情都值得政府至少深入了解，因為政府的職責之一就是維護公眾福祉，而深入了解不同於監督。所以，至少政府可以深入了解正在發生的事情，然後決定要製定哪些適當的規則來確保公共安全。這正是我所提倡的。我並不是主張停止人工智慧的發展，也不是任何已經寫過的稻草人誇張的說法，我確實認為人工智慧有很大的好處。我們只需要確保它們確實是好處，並且我們不會做一些愚蠢的事情。

Okay. Well, I hope that doesn't count against my Tesla questions. But the 2 things I was going to ask you were you mentioned in the letter this confidence in getting the 25% margin on Model 3. Could you just mention what the level of production is that you feel you need to get to in order to get there? What run rate? And secondly, there have been a fair number of battery announcements, solid-state battery technology, Toyota and a few others. Can you -- what's your general assessment. Are we getting close to some kind of breakthroughs here or just what's your thoughts?

好的。好吧，我希望這不會影響我關於特斯拉的問題。但我想問您的兩件事是，您在信中提到了對 Model 3 獲得 25% 利潤率的信心。您能否說明一下，您認為要達到這個目標需要達到什麼樣的生產水準？運行率是多少？其次，已經有相當多的電池公告，包括固態電池技術、豐田和其他一些公司。您能否－您的整體評價是什麼？我們即將取得某種突破，或者您只是有什麼想法？

Oh, God. Okay, here's my opinion of the battery breakthrough of the week, battery breakthrough du jour. When somebody has like some great claim that they've got this awesome battery, you know what? Send us a sample. Or if you don't trust us, send it to an independent lab where the parameters can be verified. Otherwise, STF. Yes. So everything works on PowerPoint. If you like, I'll give you a PowerPoint presentation about teleportation to the Andromeda Galaxy. That doesn't mean it works.

哦，天哪。好的，這是我對本週電池突破的看法，即今日電池突破。當有人誇耀自己擁有這種超棒的電池時，你知道嗎？請寄給我們一個樣品。或者，如果您不信任我們，請將其發送到可以驗證參數的獨立實驗室。否則，STF。是的。因此一切在 PowerPoint 上都能正常運作。如果你願意的話，我可以為你做一個關於傳送到仙女座星系的 PowerPoint 簡報。這並不意味著它有效。

So Tesla is the biggest buyer of lithium-ion batteries on earth. You know who people come to first when they've got a lithium-ion battery? Us. Because we're their biggest customer. I would love it if we could have some breakthrough. It'd be awesome. I think there are some interesting things on the horizon, but then the time it takes from something working in the lab to working at moderate production levels, to working at higher production levels, to optimizing the cost is several years. So it's not like it suddenly pops out of nowhere. J.B., do you want to add to that?

因此，特斯拉是全球最大的鋰離子電池買家。您知道當人們擁有鋰離子電池時他們首先會想到誰嗎？我們。因為我們是他們最大的客戶。如果我們能夠取得一些突破，我會很高興。這將會非常棒。我認為即將出現一些有趣的事情，但是從實驗室工作到中等生產水平，再到更高生產水平，再到優化成本，需要幾年的時間。所以它並不是突然憑空冒出來的。J.B.，你想補充嗎？

I totally agree with the sort of cautious skepticism on all these announcements. And just more specifically on the solid-state batteries, Rod. I mean, we do -- we've talked to a number of different groups that are researching this. We actually have tested a number of those different prototype -- very early prototype single cells. But it's -- we don't yet see anything that changes our strategy, and we don't see anything there that's...

我完全同意對所有這些聲明持謹慎懷疑態度。更具體地說，關於固態電池，Rod。我的意思是，我們確實——我們已經與許多研究這個問題的不同團體進行了交談。我們實際上已經測試了許多不同的原型——非常早期的原型單電池。但是－我們還沒有看到任何改變我們策略的因素，我們也沒有看到任何...

However, we'd love it if it did. Please. Can someone please come up with a battery breakthrough. We'd love it.

然而，如果確實如此，我們會很高興。請。有人能提出電池方面的突破嗎？我們會喜歡的。

We would be the first ones to want to implement it.

我們是第一個想要實現它的人。

Yes. Totally. I mean, there are some breakthroughs that I think are achievable. I -- they're confidential, so I can't talk about them on this call. But there's one particular avenue that I am confident could be made to work that would be not -- from a -- the most significant one -- breakthrough in a while. But again, you've got to make it work in the lab. It doesn't yet work in the lab. It's promising in the lab. You go from the lab to small production, then you go to large production, then you get to cost optimization. These are several years, okay. I wish it were shorter, but that's the way it goes. So don't worry about that. And yes, so was there...

是的。完全。我的意思是，我認為有些突破是可以實現的。我——這些都是機密，所以我不能在這次通話中談論它們。但我相信有一條特定的途徑是可以奏效的，而從最重要的一條途徑來看，這不會是近期的突破。但同樣，你必須讓它在實驗室中發揮作用。它在實驗室中還無法發揮作用。它在實驗室中很有前景。從實驗室到小規模生產，再到大規模生產，最後實現成本優化。這都好幾年了，好吧。我希望它更短一些，但事實就是這樣。所以不用擔心。是的，那裡確實如此…

The 25% Model 3 gross margin target. When will we get there?

Model 3 的毛利率目標為 25%。我們什麼時候能到達那裡？

Yes. So J.B. might want to elaborate on this, but I feel like the point at which we are at steady-state 5,000 units a week for Model 3 is about when we've reached the 25% gross margin level. So it wouldn't be right when we get to 5,000 because initially when you get to 5,000 a week, there's still a lot of overtime. You're still expediting parts from all around the world. So you've a lot of expedite fees. You've got a lot of overtime, and so it takes probably from the point at which you get to the 5,000 a week, it's probably another 3 or 4 months before you hit the 25% gross margin. Would you agree, Deepak?

是的。因此 J.B. 可能想詳細說明這一點，但我覺得當我們達到 Model 3 每週 5,000 輛的穩定產量時，我們的毛利率大約是 25%。因此，當我們達到 5,000 時就不對了，因為最初當你每週達到 5,000 時，仍然會有很多加班。您仍在加速運送來自世界各地的零件。所以您需要支付很多加急費用。你加班很多，所以從每週收入達到 5,000 美元開始，可能還需要 3 到 4 個月的時間才能達到 25% 的毛利率。你同意嗎，迪帕克？

I agree. You're -- yes, I was just going to be more cautious. But I think...

我同意。是的，我只是要更加謹慎。但我認為...

It's something like that. It's certainly -- you need to reach a production level and then optimize at that production level.

就像那樣。當然——您需要達到一定的生產水平，然後在該生產水平上進行優化。

Yes, I mean, I think ultimately it's a variety of factors, including material cost and cell and the efficiencies we achieve at the Gigafactory and ourselves. And I'm -- we are very confident we will achieve the 25% target, firstly on Model 3.

是的，我的意思是，我認為最終這是由多種因素造成的，包括材料成本和電池以及我們在超級工廠和我們自己實現的效率。我非常有信心，我們將實現 25% 的目標，首先是在 Model 3 上。

For sure next year. 100%.

明年肯定可以。100%。

It's a question of actually when 100%...

問題實際上是何時實現 100%...

Again, I say 100% probability of achieving that at some point next year.

我再說一遍，明年某個時候實現這一目標的可能性是 100%。

Yes. And I feel really good about it because the bill of material that we have is so well defined and so clear in our premiums that we have on prototypes is (inaudible).

是的。我對此感到非常滿意，因為我們的物料清單定義得非常明確，而且原型的保費也很清晰（聽不清楚）。

Another way of saying we're significantly less dumb this time, we think.

換句話說，我們認為，這次我們顯然不那麼愚蠢了。

Yes. So and the labor hours required are significantly lower, there will be a structured manufacturing.

是的。因此，所需的勞動時間將顯著減少，製造過程將更加結構化。

It's designed for manufacturing.

它是為製造業而設計的。

Exactly. And so all of those give me much more confidence in this target. And exactly when we'll achieve, I think we'll give you more clarity over time.

確切地。所有這些都讓我對這個目標更有信心。至於我們何時能夠實現這一目標，我想我們會隨著時間的推移向大家提供更清晰的說明。

Yes. And I'd like to give some credit to our suppliers here. With Roadster, and certainly with Model S and to a slightly less degree with Model X, yes, we often could not get the top suppliers or -- and we certainly couldn't get the A-Team at the top suppliers. What's great about the Model 3 is we have the A supplier and we have the A-Team at the A supplier. I can't tell you how important this is. It makes a massive difference. So just a thank you to all the suppliers that worked so hard to get us to this point. They deserve a lot of credit for any success that we have.

是的。我想對我們的供應商表示感謝。對於 Roadster，當然還有 Model S，以及程度稍輕的 Model X，是的，我們經常無法獲得頂級供應商，或者——我們當然無法獲得頂級供應商的 A 團隊。Model 3 的優點在於我們擁有 A 級供應商，我們在 A 級供應商擁有 A 級團隊。我無法告訴你這有多重要。這會帶來巨大的改變。所以，我要感謝所有為使我們達到這一點而努力工作的供應商。我們取得的任何成功都離不開他們的功勞。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的瑞安·布林克曼。

In just thinking about your liquidity position, while you're operating with more cash than you historically have, $3 billion, I see you're also guiding to $2 billion CapEx in the back half and you previously said $1 billion of gross cash is as low as you're comfortable operating at. So you guide to positive cash from operations the back half, presumably on Model 3 ramp in 4Q. But if it's only a little positive, then I guess you would be close to your targeted cash level. So the question is can you help us size up how positive do you expect the cash from operations to be in the back half? And if that level of cash from operations plus whatever remains available to draw on your asset-backed line, if that's sufficient cushion for you relative to your $1 billion target or whether it might make sense to do another equity raise?

僅考慮您的流動性狀況，雖然您運營的現金比歷史上多，為 30 億美元，但我發現您還將下半年的資本支出控制在 20 億美元，而您之前曾說過，10 億美元的總現金是您能夠承受的最低運營水平。因此，您預計下半年營運現金流將為正，大概是由於第四季度 Model 3 的產量增加。但如果只是稍微積極一點，那麼我想你就接近你的目標現金水準了。所以問題是，您能否幫助我們評估一下您預計下半年的營運現金流會有多積極？如果從營運中獲得的現金水準加上資產支持額度中剩餘的可用資金，相對於您的 10 億美元目標而言，這是否足以為您提供緩衝，或者是否有必要再進行一次股權融資？

Yes. Deepak, do you want to...

是的。迪帕克，你想…

Yes, sure, sure, Ryan. So we expect our operating cash flows to be significantly better in the second half compared to the first half. At their highest level, scaling generates cash.

是的，當然，當然，瑞安。因此，我們預計下半年的營運現金流將比上半年明顯改善。在最高水準上，擴大規模可以產生現金。

Yes, it certainly does.

是的，確實如此。

And it's a better situation than S and X. And our cash conversion cycle, particularly for the next full quarter is going to be really great while we are shipping Model 3s in North America. And in addition...

這比 S 和 X 的情況要好。我們的現金轉換週期，特別是下一整個季度的現金轉換週期，在北美運送 Model 3 時將會非常棒。另外...

And one thing, perhaps you were about to get to it is -- is that the -- with Model 3, with our suppliers, we've been able to get -- negotiate much better terms, payment terms. The payment terms are significantly longer. So I think we're close to, is that 60?

您可能已經了解了一件事，那就是透過與 Model 3 的供應商協商，我們已經能夠獲得更好的條款和付款條件。付款期限明顯較長。所以我認為我們已經接近 60 了？

Close to 60, correct.

接近 60，正確。

Close to 60 days payment terms with our suppliers. The -- and we are also able to make the car a lot faster. So obviously, the nirvana is that we can make the car and get paid for the car before we have to pay our suppliers, which then the faster you grow, the faster your cash position grows. Obviously that's like the promised land right there. And that's how it's -- that certainly -- that's how it's -- what we've aimed for. And I think we will achieve that, maybe not immediately, but pretty quickly. Now that said, there may be some wisdom in having a cash cushion for unexpected events. You just never know if there's going to be some significant force majeure events in the world. It could be an earthquake in California, for example. And -- but we're not, at this point, considering an equity raise. We are thinking about debt, but we're not thinking about an equity raise.

我們與供應商的付款期限接近 60 天。而且我們還能夠讓車子跑得更快。因此，顯然，完美境界就是我們可以先製造汽車，然後在向供應商付款，這樣，你的發展越快，你的現金部位成長就越快。顯然，那裡就像是應許之地。這就是──這當然是──我們的目標。我認為我們將會實現這一目標，也許不是立即實現，但很快。話雖如此，但為應對意外事件預留一些現金緩衝可能還是明智的。你永遠不知道世界上是否會發生一些重大的不可抗力事件。例如，可能是加州發生地震。但目前我們還沒有考慮增加股權。我們正在考慮債務，但我們沒有考慮股權融資。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just the follow-up is about the $1 billion of desired minimum gross cash. Does that go up when the Model 3 launches because you're a bigger company? Or does it go down because of what you just said about the ability to generate cash and working capital while production is ramping?

好的。這非常有幫助。接下來的問題是，所需的最低現金總額是 10 億美元。由於你們公司規模較大，所以當 Model 3 上市時，這個價格會上升嗎？還是因為您剛才說的在生產不斷增加的同時產生現金和營運資金的能力而導致價格下降？

In the long run, it will go up as our balance sheet grows. And just to finish off on your question, we also have liquidity through the lines of credit, our ABL line is -- we've just grown it to $1.9 billion. We have untapped $800 million there. Of course, how much we can tap there depends on our borrowing base but that's a source of liquidity. And then for our solar leased assets, we have $700 million of funding which is untapped on our tax equity funds and aggregation debt. So we have significant amounts of liquidity to be able to fund those lines too.

從長遠來看，隨著我們的資產負債表的成長，它也會上升。最後回答您的問題，我們也透過信用額度獲得了流動性，我們的 ABL 額度剛剛成長到 19 億美元。我們在那裡還有 8 億美元尚未動用。當然，我們能利用多少資金取決於我們的借貸基礎，但這是流動性的來源。對於我們的太陽能租賃資產，我們擁有 7 億美元的資金，這些資金尚未透過稅收股權基金和集合債務動用。因此，我們擁有大量的流動資金來為這些線路提供資金。

Yes. One side point that's perhaps worth noting is that some of these people look at our sort of finished goods inventory and compare that to other car companies, but they compare it in the wrong way. Because Tesla does direct distribution, we are the dealers. You really -- to accurately compare Tesla to other car companies, you must include the finished goods inventory, not just at the car companies, but at the dealers. And typically, the -- that combined time of finished goods from manufacturer all the way through to dealer to an end customer is, I believe, on the order of 90 days. So it may be 70 to 90 days.

是的。也許值得注意的一個方面是，有些人會查看我們的成品庫存，並將其與其他汽車公司進行比較，但他們的比較方式是錯誤的。因為特斯拉是直接分銷，所以我們是經銷商。要準確地將特斯拉與其他汽車公司進行比較，您必須包括成品庫存，不僅是汽車公司的庫存，還包括經銷商的庫存。通常，我認為成品從製造商到經銷商再到最終客戶的總時間約為 90 天。所以可能是70到90天。

For other OEMs.

對於其他 OEM。

For the other OEMs, yes. And for us, that same metric would be approximately 30. So this is a -- in other words, at a systemic level, we're substantially more efficient than other carmakers when you consider the system as a whole.

對於其他 OEM 來說，是的。對我們來說，同樣的指標大約是 30。換句話說，從系統層面來看，如果從整個系統來看，我們的效率比其他汽車製造商高得多。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Just a couple quick ones. First on safety. Elon, you're putting a liquid cooled supercomputer in all of your cars. You're obviously ramping up more and more of those. Whether the system is being activated or not, it's collecting data, learning, you're getting better every mile. I imagine you're in a position to kind of share that data with the public or the regulators or Congress, whoever, where it matters. I haven't seen an announcement since the 40% reduction in accidents from NHTSA back in January. When could we be in a position to hear some more on this?

僅舉幾個例子。首先是安全。埃隆，你在所有汽車中都安裝了液冷超級電腦。顯然，你正在越來越多地增加這些內容。無論系統是否被激活，它都在收集資料、進行學習，你每前都會進一步進步。我想您可以與公眾、監管機構或國會等任何人、任何重要部門分享這些數據。自從 1 月 NHTSA 宣布事故減少 40% 以來，我還沒有看到任何公告。我們什麼時候可以聽到更多有關此事的消息？

It's true that there is an enormous amount of sort of visual data being gathered. It's actually quite a challenge to process that data and then train against that data and have the vehicle learn effectively from the data, because it's just a vast quantity of data. I do want to emphasize that this is disaggregated from the specific vehicle. So we're always on the side of the owner of the car and do whatever is possible, within the bounds of the law, to protect privacy. So -- but I don't have a good answer for you.

確實，有大量的視覺數據正在被收集。處理這些數據，然後根據這些數據進行訓練，並讓車輛有效地從數據中學習，實際上是一個相當大的挑戰，因為數據量非常龐大。我確實想強調的是，這是與具體車輛分開的。因此，我們始終站在車主這邊，在法律允許的範圍內盡一切可能保護隱私。所以——但我沒有好的答案給你。

If I could answer you right now, I spend a lot of my week working on Autopilot with the Autopilot team, right down in the trenches of the individual details of how we can improve this or that or enhance the neural net, enhance vision, advance -- improved control. And I think the release that should go out soon is, I think people were really pleased with it. And that is going to -- (inaudible) get actually better from there. Yes, obviously, over time an autonomous vehicle is going to be far, far safer than a person. Yes, it's just -- it's really hard for a person to compete. I mean the car has 8 cameras looking 360 degrees all the time. It's got onboard radar, it's got 12 high-precision ultrasonic sonars. It's got inertial measurement units, high-accuracy GPS. And over 10 tera ops of computing capability that never sleeps.

如果我現在能回答你的話，我每週都會花很多時間和自動駕駛團隊一起研究自動駕駛系統，深入研究如何改進這個或那個，或者增強神經網路、增強視覺、改進控制等各個細節。我認為很快就會發布該版本，我認為人們對此感到非常滿意。而且情況將會 — — （聽不清楚）實際上會變得更好。是的，顯然，隨著時間的推移，自動駕駛汽車將比人類安全得多。是的，只是──一個人真的很難競爭。我的意思是，車上有 8 個攝像頭，可以隨時 360 度全方位監控。它配備了機載雷達和 12 個高精度超音波聲納。它有慣性測量裝置、高精度 GPS。以及超過 10 兆次不間斷運算能力。

Okay. And just a follow-up then, on space but not on Mars but more Earth, Earth (inaudible).

好的。接下來是有關太空的後續問題，但不是火星，而是地球，地球（聽不清楚）。

Oh God. Come on, let's not get -- space. Come on.

哦天哪。來吧，我們不要去——太空。快點。

No, it's actually -- it's really relevant. I was just curious is there anything that SpaceX is doing that -- or enabling that could be advantageous to Tesla's mission to accelerate sustainable transport?

不，事實上——它確實很相關。我只是好奇 SpaceX 正在做什麼或實現什麼，這對特斯拉加速永續交通的使命是否有利？

There's a recent anecdote actually that Jon just shared with me. Jon, maybe you...

事實上，喬恩剛剛和我分享了一件最近的軼事。喬恩，也許你…

Yes, there's some really great collaboration continuously between the SpaceX teams on materials and other challenges. And we had a challenge in service over the past -- just over the past weeks.

是的，SpaceX 團隊在材料和其他挑戰方面持續進行非常好的合作。過去幾週，我們在服務方面遇到了挑戰。

Yes, this is -- yes, in fact, just talked about this today.

是的，這是——是的，事實上，今天剛剛談到了這一點。

Yes. Where we needed to determine the porosity of an object deep within our structure and that's something that SpaceX...

是的。我們需要確定結構深處物體的孔隙率，而這正是 SpaceX 要做的…

Aluminum casting.

鋁鑄件。

Aluminum casting. It's something that SpaceX knows how to do. Our team reached out to the SpaceX team. The SpaceX team helped us to solve that with some ultrasound sensors that we could quickly isolate where the issue was and take corrective action. And that...

鋁鑄件。這是 SpaceX 知道如何做的事情。我們的團隊聯繫了 SpaceX 團隊。SpaceX 團隊透過一些超音波感測器幫助我們解決了這個問題，我們可以快速隔離問題所在並採取糾正措施。還有那...

It saved us 8 hours of work per car.

每輛車可以為我們節省 8 小時的工作時間。

Per car. That was -- that could potentially experience this issue. And that's just 1 example of a lot of examples of how the SpaceX team and the Tesla team collaborate and we get help from them continually on material issues and other issues like that.

每輛車。那是——可能會遇到這個問題。這只是 SpaceX 團隊和 Tesla 團隊合作的眾多例子中的一個例子，我們在材料問題和其他類似問題上不斷得到他們的幫助。

Yes. There's cross-fertilization of knowledge from the rocket and spacecraft history to auto back and forth is -- I think has really been quite valuable. It's something that's been very valuable for me in thinking about how do we make mass optimized vehicles, because in space, mass optimization is extremely important. On the space side, it's helpful because it -- what really goes into high-volume manufacturing of something that has to be extremely reliable. So it's been good. And of course, the companies don't compete in any way, so it's been quite helpful, actually.

是的。我認為，從火箭和太空船歷史到汽車領域的知識相互交流非常有價值。這對我來說非常有價值，因為我正在思考如何製造品質優化的飛行器，因為在太空中，品質優化極為重要。從空間方面來看，它很有幫助，因為它真正體現了大量生產某種必須極其可靠的東西。所以一切都很好。當然，這些公司之間不存在任何競爭，所以這實際上是很有幫助的。

Our next question comes from Colin Langan with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Colin Langan。

How do you come up with your estimate for the number of Superchargers and dealers that you need? Because you're doubling the number of the base, the number of Superchargers, according to the release. But the 3 is going to have a multiple higher in terms of demand. So I mean how do you -- yes, how do you frame that and gauge that?

您如何估算所需的超級充電站和經銷商的數量？因為根據發布的內容，你將基地的數量、超級充電站的數量增加一倍。但從需求面來看，3 將會高出數倍。所以我的意思是你如何——是的，你如何建立和衡量這一點？

Yes. First of all, actually I should clarify that the number of Superchargers will, in fact, triple between now and the end of next year. And that's -- we're confident that, that will address the Supercharging needs of S, X and 3. So we're trying to stay ahead of it. There are occasional places where -- that are tricky to find a location, like Malibu's really difficult. There are a few places. But the -- we're staying ahead of that. I think it's going to be good. We should see some immediate relief, even for S and X customers on some of the key Supercharger locations.

是的。首先，實際上我應該澄清一下，從現在到明年年底，超級充電站的數量實際上將增加兩倍。我們相信，這將滿足 S、X 和 3 的超級充電需求。因此，我們正努力保持領先地位。有時候，有些地方很難找到拍攝地點，像是馬里布就非常難。有幾個地方。但是——我們仍處於領先地位。我認為這會很好。我們應該會看到一些直接的緩解，即使對於一些主要超級充電站的 S 和 X 客戶也是如此。

We'll also be experimenting with our first sort of, I don't recall, mega Supercharger location, like a really big Supercharger location with a bunch of amenities. So we're going to unveil the first of those relatively soon. I think we'll get a sense for just sort of how cool it can be to have a great place to -- if you've been driving for 3, 4 hours, stop, have great restrooms, great food, amenities, hang out for half an hour and then be on your way.

我們也將嘗試建立第一個超級充電站，我記得好像不是那種，就是一個配備了各種便利設施的超大超級充電站。因此我們將很快揭曉其中的第一個。我想我們會體會到，擁有一個很棒的地方是多麼酷——如果你已經開了 3、4 個小時的車，停下來，有很棒的衛生間、美味的食物和便利設施，閒逛半個小時，然後繼續上路。

And if I could just follow up with a related question...

如果我可以繼續問一個相關問題…

Well, maybe just one other point on that and how this can scale pretty efficiently. We have Superchargers that serve 2 major separate needs. There's long-distance route enabling between cities and then there's also within the cities. And while there are definitely some congestion issues, which we're expanding out of very quickly in the cities, for the most part, the Superchargers that are in between cities have a lot of extra capacity. And we've put those stations in place to serve travel between the cities, but they can absorb a lot more cars. So even if we double fleet size, it doesn't mean that we need to double the entire Supercharge network. We have to address the few urban sites that are currently in high use, but that can be done much more efficiently with less CapEx. So that's kind of what you're seeing.

好吧，也許還有另一點，那就是如何才能非常有效地擴展。我們的超級充電站可以滿足兩個主要的不同需求。城市之間有長途路線，城市內部也有長途路線。雖然確實存在一些擁塞問題，但我們正在城市中迅速擴大覆蓋範圍，大多數情況下，城市之間的超級充電站都擁有大量額外容量。我們設立這些車站是為了服務城市之間的交通，但它們可以容納更多的汽車。因此，即使我們的車隊規模增加一倍，也不代表我們需要將整個超級充電網路擴大一倍。我們必須解決目前使用率過高的一些城市站點的問題，但這可以用更少的資本支出更有效地完成。這就是你所看到的。

And what about, just as a follow-up, the charge time? I know Porsche has said that they could charge in 15 minutes. Do you think that's possible in the future? And is the charge time on the 3 the same as the S? I wasn't sure with some of the release.

那麼，作為後續問題，充電時間如何？我知道保時捷說過他們可以在 15 分鐘內充滿電。您認為未來有可能實現嗎？3 的充電時間與 S 相同嗎？我對一些發佈內容不太確定。

It's about the same. Yes, it's comparable to the high-end S. Like your -- the recharge rate of how many miles per hour you recharge is sort of your function of the battery pack size. So like a 100-kilowatt hour pack -- because charge rate is a function of percentage of packs. So think of 3 and the high-end S as being similar in charge rates. And over time, we want to keep moving that rate up. But they're similar.

差不多。是的，它與高端 S 相當。就像你的——每小時充電多少英里的充電率取決於電池組的大小。就像一個 100 千瓦時的電池組——因為充電率是電池組百分比的函數。因此，可以認為 3 和高階 S 的充電率相似。隨著時間的推移，我們希望繼續提高這一比率。但它們很相似。

One thing I want to correct from Friday, I don't think it really has much materiality, but I did misspeak at the generalist review on Friday. I had said that there were 500,000 net reservations. Well, I did also say that I wasn't sure because I don't follow this number and that this was just a guess. And so we did check for the -- to get some precision on this. To be more accurate, there are -- there have been 518,000 gross reservations for 3 and then -- and we have 455,000 net reservations. But those cancellations occurred over the course of more than a year.

我想糾正週五的一件事，我認為它實際上沒有太大的重要性，但我在周五的綜合評論中確實說錯了。我說過淨預訂量有50萬。嗯，我也說過我不確定，因為我沒有關注這個數字，這只是一個猜測。因此我們確實進行了檢查——以獲得一些精確度。更準確地說，《星際大戰 3》的總預訂量為 518,000 個，而淨預訂量為 455,000 個。但這些取消發生在一年多的時間。

The net gain over the last -- net gain since Friday, net of cancellations, has been over 1,800 per day. But I just didn't want to leave people with the wrong impression. I think this is like inconsequential because with a small amount of effort, we could easily drive the Model 3 reservation number to something much higher, but there's no point. It's like if you're a restaurant and you're serving hamburgers and there's like a 1.5 hour wait for the hamburger, do you really want to encourage more people to come order hamburgers? That doesn't make sense. So I think it's neither here nor there, but I wanted to just make sure that there was not a misunderstanding.

自上週五以來，扣除取消的航班，淨增加人數已超過每天 1,800 人。但我只是不想給人留下錯誤的印象。我認為這無關緊要，因為只需付出一點努力，我們就可以輕鬆地將 Model 3 的預訂數量提高到更高的水平，但這沒有意義。這就像如果你是一家餐館，你供應漢堡包，而人們需要等 1.5 個小時才能吃到漢堡包，你真的想鼓勵更多的人來訂購漢堡包嗎？這沒有道理。所以我認為這沒什麼關係，我只是想確保沒有誤解。

And maybe just one quick point on your very fast charge time comment or question. We've actually tested cells and even full battery packs that can do something like a 15-minute recharge. But to-date, the trade-offs to achieve that, we don't feel are the right ones for the customer overall. You end up sacrificing on overall cost per kilowatt hour and also sacrificing on energy density in the product. And for something that's used not every single day, not every single charge, we feel that we've kind of hit the sweet spot in terms of the value to the customer and the best product. And that's kind of what's guided our philosophy. But obviously there's ongoing work to reduce those trade-offs and make it better still. But yes, we've been pretty...

關於您對快速充電時間的評論或問題，也許我只想簡單提一點。我們實際上已經測試了電池，甚至是可以在 15 分鐘內充電的完整的電池組。但到目前為止，我們認為實現這一目標的權衡對客戶整體來說並不正確。您最終會犧牲每度電的總成本，同時也會犧牲產品的能量密度。對於並非每天都會用到、並非每次充電都會用到的產品，我們覺得我們在客戶價值和最佳產品方面已經達到了最佳平衡點。這就是我們哲學的指導思想。但顯然我們正在不斷努力減少這些權衡並使其變得更好。但是的，我們已經非常…

Yes, but particularly if somebody buys like the 310-mile range Model 3, the amount -- let me tell you, the amount of times you'll have range anxiety is 0. You won't even think about it.

是的，但特別是如果有人購買續航里程為 310 英里的 Model 3，那麼——讓我告訴你，你對續航里程感到焦慮的次數為 0。你甚至不會考慮它。

The next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉。

I have 1 question and 1 follow-up as well, please. In terms of the Model 3 at the delivery event, 20 of the units were for engineering validation and the first several thousand, it appears, are going to be going to employees prior to going to the general public. So I guess the question is what are you hoping to learn or what might you learn from these engineering validation units that have come out from your employees? And then realistically, just what's in the (inaudible) going forward?

我還有 1 個問題和 1 個後續問題，請問。就交付活動中的 Model 3 而言，其中 20 輛用於工程驗證，而首批數千輛似乎將在向公眾發售之前先發給員工。所以我想問題是您希望學到什麼，或者您可以從您的員工提供的這些工程驗證單元中學到什麼？那麼現實地說，（聽不清楚）未來會發生什麼事？

Well, they're not engineering validation units. They're fully certified, fully DOT approved, EPA approved production cars. These are not prototypes in any way. They're not validation anything. They are full production cars. The reason they are initially going to employees and, in some cases investors or anyone who's been a long-time investor, is that for the first several thousand vehicles, there are problems that crop up that are rare. On a percentage basis, they might be like 0.1% likely to occur, but then there are a whole bunch of these things that only show up 1 in 1,000 cases. And it's good to iron out these things with a tight internal feedback loop than to do it with customers. It also, to some degree, is a reward for those who work on the design, development, integration of the vehicle. Yes, yes.

嗯，他們不是工程驗證單位。它們是經過全面認證、DOT 批准和 EPA 批准的量產汽車。從任何角度來說，這些都不是原型。它們沒有驗證任何東西。它們是量產車。他們最初向員工，有時也向投資者或任何長期投資者尋求幫助的原因是，對於最初的數千輛汽車來說，出現的問題很少見。從百分比來看，這些情況發生的機率大概是 0.1%，但還有很多情況出現的機率只有千分之一。透過緊密的內部回饋循環來解決這些問題比與客戶一起解決要好。從某種程度上來說，這也是對那些致力於車輛設計、開發和整合的人員的一種獎勵。是的，是的。

I mean, it's important to note, too, that all those people paid full price for the car.

我的意思是，同樣值得注意的是，所有這些人都為這輛車支付了全額。

Yes, full price. There was no discount internally at all.

是的，全價。內部根本沒有折扣。

Exactly.

確切地。

Right. No, I mean, the root of the question is if you realistically uncover something, and even if it's 1 in 1,000, what flexibility do you think you have to be actually be able to rectify that concern in a way that won't impact your ramp? And if this is being done arguably later in a process than a traditional OEM that's not trying to ramp necessarily as aggressively as you need to, I'm just -- again, just trying to understand realistically what can be done and what kinds of things -- like perhaps you can give an example of what you might uncover and what the rectification might be.

正確的。不，我的意思是，問題的根源在於，如果你真的發現了某些問題，哪怕只有 1/1000，你認為你必須具備什麼樣的靈活性才能真正以不影響你的方式糾正這個問題？如果這個過程比傳統 OEM 更晚完成，而傳統 OEM 並不一定需要像您需要的那樣積極地推進，那麼我只是 — — 再次，只是想切實地了解可以做什麼以及可以做哪些事情 — — 也許您可以舉一個例子來說明您可能會發現什麼以及可能需要採取哪些糾正措施。

Yes, these are not showstoppers. These are -- what we're talking about here are inconsistencies in the production process or in the quality control from a supplier. So they're relatively easy to correct. They're just -- there tends to be quite a large number of them. But again, only rarely occurring. It usually involves like a tolerance stack up or some combination of factors that we didn't anticipate. But they're almost always very easy to correct. But there are just a bunch of them and it's a lot of work.

是的，這些都不是亮點。這些是——我們在這裡談論的是生產過程中或供應商品質控制中的不一致。所以它們相對容易修正。它們只是——它們的數量往往相當多。但同樣，這種情況很少發生。它通常涉及公差累積或一些我們未曾預料到的因素的組合。但它們幾乎總是很容易糾正。但它們的數量太多，工作量很大。

Yes. And these may be software issues as well, not necessarily supplier or hardware issues. It could...

是的。這些也可能是軟體問題，不一定是供應商或硬體問題。它可能...

Well, and software-hardware interaction as well.

嗯，還有軟體和硬體的互動。

Yes. And I think the main benefit is that we can learn about them faster and therefore, we can fix them faster. That simply is the benefit.

是的。我認為主要的好處是我們可以更快地了解它們，因此我們可以更快地修復它們。這就是好處。

Right. Exactly. The people driving them and the people -- are the same ones who have to fix the problem. That's a great feedback loop.

正確的。確切地。駕駛車輛的人和解決問題的人是同一群人。這是一個很好的回饋循環。

And what we're doing is above and beyond others. We have done a lot of testing like the other OEMs. So this is just helping us get above and beyond by selling it to our employees and getting feedback from them.

我們所做的遠遠超出了其他人。與其他 OEM 一樣，我們也進行了大量測試。因此，透過將其推銷給我們的員工並獲得他們的回饋，這只是幫助我們超越自我。

And investors and -- yes.

還有投資者——是的。

Our next question is from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 David Tamberrino。

Thanks for updating with the net reservations number. I actually want to follow along those lines on your order rates. You've given us additional color based off of 2Q trends and average weekly orders. Can you share a little bit more maybe what the 1Q and 2Q order rate trends look like for the Model S and the X?

感謝您更新網路預訂號碼。我實際上想按照這些思路來了解您的訂單費率。您根據第二季的趨勢和每周平均訂單量為我們提供了更多詳細資訊。您能否再分享一下 Model S 和 X 第一季和第二季的訂單率趨勢？

I don't think that those numbers would be helpful for predicting things in the future. And like once you get into the granularity, people read things into numbers that really don't have a lot of relevance. There's for sure seasonality in vehicle orders. Fewer people order cars in the dead of winter than order them in spring or summer, there's just like other retailers really. So I'm -- and then we do batch cars so that we'll make -- typically, at the beginning of the quarter, we'll make cars for Europe and Asia, and then we'll make cars for the East Coast of North America, then the West Coast of North America, and that's generally the sequence within a quarter. And then you'll see someone write something where they think they've uncovered some "gotcha" where there were very few Teslas registered in a given country in a particular month. It's like yes, because none of them have arrived. This is meaningless extrapolation.

我認為這些數字對於預測未來的事情沒有幫助。一旦進入細節，人們就會把事情讀成數字，但實際上並沒有太多的相關性。汽車訂單肯定具有季節性。在隆冬時節訂購汽車的人比在春季或夏季訂購汽車的人要少，實際上就像其他零售商一樣。所以我 — — 然後我們批量生產汽車，這樣我們就可以生產 — — 通常，在每個季度初，我們會為歐洲和亞洲生產汽車，然後我們會為北美東海岸生產汽車，然後是北美西海岸，這通常是一個季度內的順序。然後你會看到有人寫了一些東西，他們認為他們發現了一些“陷阱”，即在特定月份在特定國家註冊的特斯拉汽車非常少。答案是肯定的，因為他們都沒有到達。這是毫無意義的推論。

Okay. Then I guess my follow-up question would just be on your 3Q gross margin guidance of a dip below 20%. How far below -- to phrase correctly, how dependent upon production and hitting an S-curve or ramping up do you think that below 20% is? Could it be a couple hundred basis points below 20% or is it just think you're going to be around that area based on what the curve that you've laid out so far is going to look like?

好的。那麼我想我的後續問題就是關於您對第三季毛利率將跌破 20% 的預測。正確來說，您認為低於 20% 的水平在多大程度上取決於產量和達到 S 曲線或產量提升？它會不會低於 20% 幾百個基點，或者只是根據您目前繪製的曲線，認為它會處於該區域附近？

Yes. This is just because of Model 3 is fundamentally negative gross margin in the very beginning, because you've got a gigantic machine producing -- that's meant for 5,000 vehicles a week and it's producing a few hundred vehicles a week.

是的。這只是因為 Model 3 在一開始的毛利率基本上是負的，因為你有一台巨大的生產機器——它每周可以生產 5,000 輛汽車，但它每週只生產幾百輛汽車。

Exactly. That's the sole explanation.

確切地。這是唯一的解釋。

It's a denominator problem.

這是一個分母問題。

Yes, yes. Nothing fundamentally wrong with the...

是的，是的。從根本上來說沒有什麼錯誤...

Nothing -- yes, it's a temporary situation and it's a dent which corrects itself.

沒什麼——是的，這只是暫時的情況，而且會自行糾正。

This is true for anything. If like -- if you had like a soap factory, let me tell you, your first bar of soap would be like millions of dollars, okay. But then you get into volume production and then it's like $2, okay. So true for any manufacturing situation.

對於任何事物來說這都是正確的。如果像——如果你有一家肥皂工廠，讓我告訴你，你的第一塊肥皂就會價值數百萬美元，好吧。但當你進入批量生產時，價格就變成 2 美元了，好吧。對於任何製造情況都是如此。

Our next question is from Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。

Yes, just want to ask about a couple of questions around the pace of spend in the second half (inaudible).

是的，我只是想問幾個有關下半年支出速度的問題（聽不清楚）。

Please speak up. You're a bit soft. Yes.

請大聲說出來。你有點心軟。是的。

Yes, the pace of OpEx through second half, you guided was flat. With the Model 3 going out, are you basically saying you have the operating infrastructure to handle that, but then does that ramp in 2018? And similarly for CapEx to go from 30 Model 3s up to the exit rate, you're talking $2 billion. How do we think about, a, that run rate and given how do we tie it to your exponential ramp? And b, what does that imply for CapEx going into 2018?

是的，您預測下半年的營運支出速度將持平。隨著 Model 3 的推出，您是否基本上說您擁有處理該問題的營運基礎設施，但是 2018 年這一數字是否會上升？同樣，對於從 30 輛 Model 3 到退出率的資本支出，你需要花費 20 億美元。我們如何看待運行率以及如何將其與指數成長聯繫起來？那麼，這對 2018 年的資本支出意味著什麼？

Yes, so your first question was operating expenses?

是的，那麼您的第一個問題是營運費用嗎？

And do we have enough infrastructure in place to service the Model 3. And I think we're finally actually leveraging our own infrastructure and that's helping us. So I'll give you an example of that. In service, as we've talked about, we discovered that 80% of the cars that we repair don't require a lift. And so we're deploying a mobile service strategy to take 80% of the cars and fix them where it's convenient to the customer. Not at our location, at their location. Make it invisible to them.

我們是否有足夠的基礎設施來為 Model 3 提供服務？我認為我們最終實際上利用了我們自己的基礎設施，這對我們有幫助。我給你舉一個例子。在服務過程中，正如我們所討論的，我們發現我們修理的 80% 的汽車不需要升降機。因此，我們正在部署行動服務策略，將 80% 的汽車送到客戶方便的地方進行維修。不在我們這裡，而是在他們的地方。讓他們看不見它。

Yes. Exactly. Like the nice thing is like you -- like the ideal service is it's invisible. You don't even notice it and when it's done, you love it. And so what we're talking about here with the mobile service trucks, as Jon was saying, really most of the time we don't really need a lift, is that your car could be parked, it could be at your office parking lot or at your house. But let's say it's like it's at work. The -- Tesla will come there, fix your car and by the time you need to leave for work, it's done.

是的。確切地。就像美好的事物就像你一樣－就像理想的服務是無形的。您甚至沒有註意到它，但當它完成後，您會愛上它。因此，正如喬恩所說，我們在這裡談論的移動服務卡車，實際上大多數時候我們並不需要升降機，你的車可以停在那裡，可以是辦公室停車場，也可以是家裡。但我們姑且假設它就像在工作一樣。特斯拉會來修理你的車，當你需要去上班的時候，一切都修好了。

That's right. And so what that does for us is it takes 80% of the volume out of our existing footprint. And allows us to leverage that footprint to grow with Model 3. And we'd give you similar examples in stores. So that's why we've guided to the OpEx that we've guided for the second half. We feel like we've got leverage there and we've got plans in place to further lever that in 2018.

這是正確的。這對我們來說意味著它可以減少我們現有足跡中 80% 的體積。並允許我們利用該足跡來推動 Model 3 的發展。我們會在商店中為您提供類似的例子。這就是我們對下半年營運支出做出指導的原因。我們覺得我們在那裡有優勢，我們已經制定了計劃，以便在 2018 年進一步發揮這一優勢。

I think it's been really great for customers. I mean, this is what you want.

我認為這對顧客來說真的很棒。我的意思是，這就是你想要的。

Totally.

完全。

I mean, you don't want to bring your car into a service center. You just want your car to be magically fixed in the parking lot and that's what we're going to do.

我的意思是，你不想把你的車送到服務中心。您只是希望您的車能神奇地停在停車場，而這正是我們要做的。

Yes. So we're going to provide really great consumer happiness at increasing OpEx levels of leverage.

是的。因此，我們將透過提高營運支出的槓桿水平來為消費者提供真正巨大的幸福感。

And second question was similarly around CapEx leverage. So you put in $2 billion second half to get to that exit rate. One, is that affected by the timing of Elon's production ramp? And then two, given the ramp from 5,000 to 10,000 in 2018, what's your preliminary view of CapEx for 2018?

第二個問題同樣與資本支出槓桿有關。因此，您在下半年投入了 20 億美元來達到這一退出率。第一，這是否受到伊隆增產時機的影響？其次，考慮到 2018 年產量將從 5,000 輛增加到 10,000 輛，您對 2018 年資本支出的初步看法是什麼？

So I want to put a pin on 2018. We'll talk about that when we get to that time. But in 2017, our CapEx expense is a continuum. There are no -- there are long lead items of different kinds like the Gigafactory. And for the Model 3 and the equipment we are buying, our CapEx spend is at historical highs. We're spending $100 million a week. So a week or 2 here or there is a couple of hundred million. So what we are spending now is the completion of all of our Model 3 equipment and tooling as our -- that gets signed off and it's taking us to 5,000 and beyond. So I can't necessarily break it out for you but it just allows us to hit our operating plan that we have at a high level.

所以我想給 2018 年畫一個句點。到時候我們再來討論。但在 2017 年，我們的資本支出是一個連續的過程。沒有－有不同類型的長週期項目，例如 Gigafactory。對於 Model 3 和我們正在購買的設備，我們的資本支出處於歷史最高水準。我們每週花費 1 億美元。因此，這裡或那裡一兩週就會有幾億。因此，我們現在所花的錢是完成我們所有的 Model 3 設備和工具——這些都得到了批准，並將使我們的產量達到 5,000 輛甚至更多。因此，我無法為您詳細說明，但它只是讓我們能夠實現我們高層的營運計劃。

I want to do a quick time check here. So some of us have some other things scheduled in 20 minutes. So we've gotten some good, thorough answers here. So we'll probably take a few more questions and then wrap it up.

我想在這裡快速檢查時間。所以我們中的一些人在 20 分鐘內安排了一些其他的事情。因此我們在這裡得到了一些很好的、全面的答案。因此我們可能會再回答幾個問題然後結束。

Yes, a few more questions and like yes.

是的，還有幾個問題，答案是肯定的。

And then wrap it up, yes.

然後把它包起來，是的。

Our next question is from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的科林·拉什。

Can you talk a little bit about the conversion rate of customers coming into stores and actually ordering cars? And then similar question on what's happening with solar and energy storage in terms of how many customer impressions you've got and the conversion rate into actual sales?

您能否談談顧客進入商店並實際訂購汽車的轉換率？然後類似的問題是，就您獲得的客戶印象數量以及轉換為實際銷售的轉換率而言，太陽能和能源儲存的情況如何？

The conversion rates have continued to improve. Quarter-over-quarter and month-after-month, our conversion rates get stronger. And we don't, obviously, publicize specifics on those but they're improving with every week and every month. On the solar side, one of the interesting things that we're seeing is we put a solar display in -- an energy display into our stores in North America. And we've got energy experts that are on staff, and what we're finding is it's a really natural transition in conversation from somebody is buying a car and talking about where they're going to charge the car to then where their energy comes from.

轉換率持續提高。我們的轉換率逐季、逐月都在提升。顯然，我們不會公佈具體細節，但它們每週、每月都在不斷改進。在太陽能方面，我們看到的有趣的事情之一是我們在北美的商店安裝了太陽能顯示器——能源顯示器。我們擁有專業的能源專家，我們發現，談話的過渡非常自然，從某人購買汽車並談論他們將在哪裡為汽車充電，到談論他們的能源來自哪裡。

Yes, totally. It's just -- I mean, we talked about the importance of integrating energy, production, storage and electric vehicle transport, and what we said is coming true. It's really working well together. And we're actually able to leverage our existing stores to generate even more sales per square foot. I'm not sure what our -- I think our sales per square foot are so high, it's...

是的，完全正確。只是——我的意思是，我們談到了整合能源、生產、儲存和電動汽車運輸的重要性，我們所說的話正在成為現實。合作確實很愉快。我們實際上能夠利用現有的商店來創造更多的每平方英尺的銷售額。我不確定我們的——我認為我們每平方英尺的銷售額如此之高，這是…

Our sales per square foot are so high, it actually moves the total (inaudible).

我們的每平方英尺銷售額如此之高，實際上它影響了整體銷售額（聽不清楚）。

You need a telescope to see who's in second place.

你需要一架望遠鏡才能看到第二名是誰。

Yes, exactly. Yes, and it actually moves the overall...

是的，確實如此。是的，它確實改變了整體…

It's like stupidly high.

這簡直高得離譜。

Square footage -- sales per square foot numbers for some of the larger more (inaudible).

平方英尺－一些較大建築的每平方英尺銷售額數字較多（聽不清楚）。

We've really [stepped] with more stores. I mean, like there's no point in (inaudible) all 3, because there's like people just -- that's no point there. But (inaudible) like eventually. But the -- and I think like the new integrated app with -- where you can see the status of your car, your Powerwall and your solar, and see at any given time of the day, how much energy is coming from the sun, how much is coming from the Powerwall, what your house is consuming. You can also -- it tells you when the Powerwall saved you from a utility interruption. A lot of people don't realize that like there are many small utility interruptions in a given month, and that's why your -- you see the blinking 12 on your microwave oven or whatever, kids maybe, or your computer suddenly went dark and -- or you can even get data corruption and that kind of thing. Or your food went bad mysteriously. The Powerwall saves you from all of that. And I think particularly important in cases where there's like a natural disaster, which could be floods, hurricanes, ice storms, earthquakes, fires, anything that disrupts the utility system. But having uninterruptible power supply in the form of Powerwall gives you security in those situations. And it's kind of like insurance. Like you only really want it when you really want it. And I think people are going to -- a lot of that, "I just saw the app for the first time today. I'm using it myself" and it's like wow, this is great.

我們確實開設了更多商店。我的意思是，這三者都沒有意義，因為人們只是──這沒有意義。但（聽不清楚）最終還是會這樣。但是——我認為就像新的整合應用程式一樣——你可以看到你的汽車、你的 Powerwall 和你的太陽能的狀態，並且可以看到在一天中的任何時間，有多少能量來自太陽，有多少能量來自 Powerwall，你的房子消耗了多少能量。您也可以—它會告訴您 Powerwall 何時幫助您避免了電力中斷。很多人沒有意識到，在某個特定月份裡，會出現許多次小規模的公用事業中斷，這就是為什麼你會看到微波爐或其他東西上的數字 12 閃爍，也許是孩子們看到的，或者你的電腦突然黑屏了，或者你甚至會出現數據損壞之類的情況。或者你的食物莫名其妙地變質了。Powerwall 可以幫您解決所有這些問題。我認為在發生自然災害的情況下尤其重要，這些災害可能是洪水、颶風、冰暴、地震、火災，以及任何破壞公用事業系統的災害。但是，擁有 Powerwall 形式的不間斷電源可以在這些情況下為您提供安全保障。這有點像保險。就像你只有真正想要它時才會真正想要它一樣。我認為很多人會說，「我今天第一次看到這個應用程式。我自己也在用它”，感覺哇，這太棒了。

Our next question comes from Martin Viecha with Redburn.

我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Martin Viecha。

I have just 2 very quick questions. The first one is on the battery production for S and X. Is there any plan to move it to the Gigafactory?

我只有兩個非常簡單的問題。第一個問題是關於 S 和 X 的電池生產。有沒有計劃將其轉移到 Gigafactory ？

For pack production?

用於包裝生產？

Right.

正確的。

(inaudible) production. We do not -- in the short term, we will not be moving it. Depending -- so sometime next year, we may move it sometime next year in order to make space for additional production volume of Model 3. That's one of the things under consideration. But in the short term, we're keeping it here in Fremont. But it is going to be tricky to squeeze in all of the space for increased Model 3 production, particularly if that run rate goes above 10,000 units a week, then we're going to have to move more stuff out.

（聽不清楚）生產。我們不會——短期內我們不會移動它。這取決於——所以明年某個時候，我們可能會將其轉移到明年某個時候，以便為 Model 3 的額外產量騰出空間。這是正在考慮的事情之一。但短期內，我們會把它留在弗里蒙特。但要擠進所有空間來增加 Model 3 的產量將會非常困難，特別是如果每週的運行率超過 10,000 輛，那麼我們就必須移出更多的東西。

Yes, and it may just be worth a reminder also that the cells for S and X are actually still 18650, and those are coming from a different production pathway in Japan. Very similar technology. Almost the same technology.

是的，也許值得提醒的是，S 和 X 的電池實際上仍然是 18650，並且來自日本的不同生產途徑。非常相似的技術。幾乎相同的技術。

Yes, but it's similar to the -- yes, the internals are essentially the same for both cars.

是的，但它類似於——是的，兩款車的內部結構基本上相同。

Yes, but it's -- yes, but different supply chain, different set of geography.

是的，但是——是的，但是供應鏈不同，地理位置不同。

And then the follow-up question is on the Model Y. I think you just mentioned an hour ago that it's going to be made probably on the same platform or very similar platform as a Model 3.

然後後續問題是關於 Model Y 的。我想您一小時前剛剛提到過，它可能會採用與 Model 3 相同或非常相似的平台製造。

Yes, we're really going to have to...

是的，我們確實必須…

Is it still going to have...

還會有嗎...

We're going to aim for maximum carryover.

我們的目標是實現最大程度的結轉。

Okay. I mean, just one thing to clarify. Is it still going to be the 100 meters of cables which you'd touched upon last time or actually, that's going to be the next generation of vehicles?

好的。我的意思是，只有一件事需要澄清。它是否仍會是您上次提到的 100 公尺長的電纜，或者實際上，這將是下一代車輛？

No, that's one of the things that we would include. We would aim to switch out the wiring models for (inaudible) the wiring models for a redundant flex circuit that's more in the order of 100 meters or so. But -- and then we'd -- obviously, we'd aim to do that both for the Y, if it's called the Y, and the 3 as well.

不，這是我們要包括的內容之一。我們的目標是將佈線模型換成（聽不清楚）大約 100 公尺左右的冗餘柔性電路的佈線模型。但是 — — 然後我們會 — — 顯然，我們的目標是同時為 Y 和 3 做到這一點（如果它被稱為 Y 的話）。

Our next question is from Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Alex Potter。

Just one from me. I was wondering the degree to which Tesla would eventually consider maybe charging more for, I guess, what you would call nontraditional product offerings. Things like software, over-the-air updates, but also shared mobility, Supercharging, aftermarket. I know in the past you've talked about running a lot of those businesses just to break even. But I guess, maybe just wondering the circumstances under which you would consider trying to earn a margin on some of these businesses versus situations where you'd prefer to just give them away?

我只有一個。我想知道特斯拉最終會在多大程度上考慮對所謂的非傳統產品收取更高的價格。諸如軟體、無線更新，還有共享行動、超充電、售後市場。我知道您過去曾談到經營許多這樣的企業只是為了實現收支平衡。但我想，也許您只是想知道在什麼情況下您會考慮嘗試從這些業務中賺取利潤，還是寧願放棄它們？

Well, I think the -- we have a major element of that which is the Autopilot. That's a software -- that's basically uploading software to the car. It could -- every car made since October last year is capable of autonomy, we believe. And so it's really just a question of uploading the software for autonomy. There will be some other things, I think in the future. But our focus is on the Model 3 ramp and we don't want to get too distracted. Okay, maybe one more question.

嗯，我認為──我們有一個主要元素，那就是自動駕駛儀。這是一種軟體——基本上就是將軟體上傳到汽車上。我們相信，自去年 10 月以來生產的每輛汽車都具備自動駕駛能力。所以這其實只是一個上傳自主軟體的問題。我認為將來還會有一些其他的事情。但我們的重點是 Model 3 的上線，我們不想分心太多。好的，也許還有一個問題。

Our final question comes from Rob Cihra from Guggenheim Partners.

我們的最後一個問題來自古根漢合夥公司的 Rob Cihra。

Just going back to Autopilot development. Obviously, not talking personal details or anything, but you've had some personnel changes in the quarter. And just wondering if those reflected any kind of change of strategy or scope, or if it was just kind of a personal thing? And I guess just related, are you still hoping to be able to do the autonomous drive, LA to New York, by the end of this year?

回到自動駕駛儀的開發。顯然，我們不談論個人細節或任何事情，但本季確實發生了一些人事變動。我只是想知道這些是否反映了某種戰略或範圍的變化，或者這只是一種個人的事情？我想，相關的是，您是否仍希望在今年年底前實現從洛杉磯到紐約的自動駕駛？

Yes, I mean I won't comment too much on like individual personnel changes. Look, Tesla's a 33,000-person company. If you actually look at our executive tenure at Tesla, it's extremely good, it's above average. I think we're at least maybe a year or 2 above average in terms of the executive tenure here. Every now and again, something doesn't work out for one reason or another. In the case of Autopilot, it's very centrally about vision and image recognition, neural nets, effectively narrow AI and so that's the focus from a recruiting standpoint. And I think we've really got -- I think we've got the best team in the world by a long shot on that front and we are growing it rapidly with world-class talent. And then the coast-coast drive, autonomous drive by the end of the year, I believe we are still on track for that. It is certainly possible that I may have egg on my face on that front. But if it is not at the end of the year, it'll be very close.

是的，我的意思是我不會對個人人事變動發表太多評論。瞧，特斯拉是一家擁有 33,000 名員工的公司。如果你實際看看我們在特斯拉的高階主管任期，你會發現這是非常好的，高於平均水準。我認為，就高階主管任期而言，我們至少比平均高出一兩年。有時，有些事情會因為這樣或那樣的原因而無法順利進行。就 Autopilot 而言，它的核心是視覺和影像辨識、神經網路、有效縮小人工智慧，因此從招募的角度來看，這是重點。我認為我們確實擁有——我認為我們在這方面擁有世界上最好的團隊，而且我們正在憑藉世界一流的人才迅速壯大這個團隊。然後，到今年年底，我們將實現海岸公路行駛和自動駕駛，我相信我們仍在朝著這個目標前進。我在這方面確實有可能丟臉。但如果不是在年底，那也會非常接近了。

Great. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. Thank you for, Sharie, for your help, and wish everybody a great day. Bye-bye.

偉大的。感謝大家今天加入我們。謝謝 Sharie 的幫助，祝大家有美好的一天。再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。大家可以斷開連線並度過美好的一天。