特斯拉 (TSLA) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉 2017 年第二季度財務業績問答電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Jeff Evanson.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人 Jeff Evanson 先生。

Mr. Evanson, you may now begin.

埃文森先生，您現在可以開始了。

Thank you, Sharie, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，Sharie，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's second quarter 2017 Q&A webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2017 年第二季度問答網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk; J.B. Straubel; Deepak Ahuja; and Jon McNeill.

今天埃隆馬斯克加入了我的行列； J.B.施特勞貝爾；迪帕克·阿胡賈；和喬恩麥克尼爾。

Our Q2 results were announced 80 minutes ago in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們在 80 分鐘前通過與本次網絡廣播相同的鏈接發布的更新信中公佈了我們的第二季度業績。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions) But before we jump into the Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

（操作員說明）但在我們進入問答環節之前，Elon 有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Yes, apparently, we're having trouble hearing Elon.

是的，顯然，我們聽不到 Elon 的聲音。

Try a different microphone.

嘗試使用不同的麥克風。

Hear me?

聽我說？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

We're getting messages from dealers that they cannot hear Elon.

我們收到來自經銷商的消息，他們無法聽到 Elon 的聲音。

I can hear you, Mr. Evanson, so if he can speak from your microphone, you're coming in loud and clear.

埃文森先生，我能聽到你的聲音，所以如果他能用你的麥克風說話，那麼你進來的聲音就很響亮。

All right, we'll try that.

好的，我們會試試的。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Sharie, are we in the call now?

Sharie，我們現在在通話中嗎？

Yes, your line is open.

是的，您的線路是開放的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right.

好的。

We apologize, everyone.

我們向大家道歉。

(Operator Instructions) Elon, over to you.

（操作員說明）埃隆，交給你了。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My apologies.

我很抱歉。

We actually tried a new audio system with a bunch of individual mics.

我們實際上嘗試了一個帶有一堆單獨麥克風的新音頻系統。

That seems to have malfunctioned, so we went back to our standard conference call object.

這似乎發生了故障，所以我們回到了我們的標準電話會議對象。

Anyway, just want to confirm, people can hear what I am saying.

無論如何，只是想確認一下，人們可以聽到我在說什麼。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

So first of all, I want to say that Friday night was an amazing time for Tesla.

所以首先，我想說周五晚上對特斯拉來說是一個了不起的時刻。

It was the -- one of the most important days in the history of the company.

這是公司歷史上最重要的日子之一。

It's something we've been striving for, for 14 years.

這是我們 14 年來一直在努力的目標。

It's the car that we've -- the Model 3 -- hanging with us [30] production Model 3s was just an incredible milestone in the company's history.

這是我們擁有的汽車 - Model 3 - 與我們 [30] 生產的 Model 3s 一起懸掛在公司歷史上只是一個令人難以置信的里程碑。

We wanted to make a great, affordable electric car, which is the fundamental thing that is missing.

我們想製造一款出色的、負擔得起的電動汽車，這是我們所缺少的基本要素。

We wanted to make that from day one.

我們想從第一天起就做到這一點。

And if we could only have done it sooner, we would have.

如果我們只能早點做到，我們會做到的。

And I'm glad that this day has come.

我很高興這一天已經到來。

What we have ahead of us, of course, is an incredibly difficult production ramp.

當然，擺在我們面前的是極其困難的生產坡道。

Nonetheless, I think we've got a great team.

儘管如此，我認為我們有一個很棒的團隊。

And I'm very confident that we'll be able to reach a production rate of 10,000 vehicles per week towards the end of next year.

我非常有信心，到明年年底，我們將能夠達到每週 10,000 輛汽車的生產速度。

And we remain, we believe, on track to achieve a 5,000-unit week by the end of this year.

我們相信，我們仍然有望在今年年底前實現每週 5,000 台的生產量。

So I would certainly urge people to not get too caught up in what exactly falls within the exact calendar boundaries of a quarter, one quarter over the next, because when you have an exponentially growing production ramp, slight changes of a few weeks here or there can appear to have dramatic changes, but that is simply because of the arbitrary nature of the -- of when a quarter ends.

因此，我當然會敦促人們不要太拘泥於一個季度或下一個季度的確切日曆範圍內的確切內容，因為當您的產量呈指數增長時，這里或那裡幾週的細微變化可能會出現戲劇性的變化，但這僅僅是因為一個季度結束的任意性質。

So -- but what people should absolutely have 0 concern about, 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000-unit production week by the end of next year.

所以——但人們絕對應該有 0 的擔憂，0 是特斯拉將在明年年底前實現 10,000 輛的生產週。

So if you can sort of say where we came from, the Roadster, where we were making only 600 units a week, where the nonpowertrain portion of the car was made by Lotus.

因此，如果你可以說我們來自哪裡，Roadster，我們每週只生產 600 輛，汽車的非動力總成部分是由 Lotus 製造的。

And we did the powertrain and the final assembly of the car, and then we went from that to 20,000 units a year of the Model S, a far more complex car where we did the whole thing.

我們完成了動力總成和汽車的最終組裝，然後我們將 Model S 的年產量提高到 20,000 輛，這是一款複雜得多的汽車，我們完成了整個工作。

And then we -- with Model 3, even more vertically integrated.

然後我們 - 使用 Model 3，更加垂直整合。

I think people should really not have any concerns that we will reach that outcome from a production rate.

我認為人們真的不應該擔心我們會從生產率中達到這個結果。

We're also very confident about costs.

我們對成本也很有信心。

We feel we gained a lot of experience.

我們覺得我們獲得了很多經驗。

We certainly aspire to learn from the mistakes of the past.

我們當然渴望從過去的錯誤中吸取教訓。

And I think we largely have.

我認為我們基本上有。

Deepak will go into some of our margin expectations there.

Deepak 將在那裡討論我們的一些利潤率預期。

And unlike, say for example, the Model X, where the mistake that we made, I obviously take primary responsibility here, was having far too much advanced technology in version 1 of a product, it's an -- Model X is an incredible car, but it was overreaching for the first generation of a product.

不像 Model X，我們犯的錯誤，我顯然在這裡負主要責任，是在產品的版本 1 中擁有太多先進的技術，它是 - Model X 是一輛令人難以置信的汽車，但對於第一代產品來說，它已經超出了預期。

But in the case of the Model 3, we've strived hard to simplify and make sure that it has everything that's necessary to be a fantastic car.

但就 Model 3 而言，我們努力簡化並確保它具備成為出色汽車所需的一切。

If you see the reviews, the reviews are -- you really could -- one could not ask for better reviews.

如果你看到評論，評論是——你真的可以——一個人不能要求更好的評論。

And I'll just sort of give you one little anecdote, which was -- which I found quite surprising is that when we were giving test drives to -- or tests -- the journalists were doing -- were driving the car and doing test drives.

我只想給你一個小軼事，這是 - 我發現非常令人驚訝的是，當我們進行試駕 - 或測試 - 記者正在做 - 正在駕駛汽車並進行測試驅動器。

About 80% of the journalists said that they would buy the car themselves.

約80%的記者表示會自己買車。

Most of the remaining 20% said probably.

其餘 20% 的大多數人說可能。

This is crazy.

這太瘋狂了。

I've never seen anything like it.

我從來沒有見過這樣的東西。

So this is a very good sign.

所以這是一個非常好的跡象。

It should also be noted that one of our big concerns was that Model S, particularly, and Model X demand would suffer with the introduction of the 3. In fact, this has turned out to be the opposite situation.

還應該指出的是，我們最大的擔憂之一是 Model S 和 Model X 的需求將隨著 Model 3 的推出而受到影響。事實上，情況恰恰相反。

Model S and X demand increased with the release of 3.

Model S 和 X 的需求隨著 3 的發布而增加。

Jon, would you like to just elaborate on that?

喬恩，你想詳細說明一下嗎？

There was -- we did express this as a concern, and it was a big concern, but it has turned out to be a pleasant surprise.

有——我們確實表達了這個擔憂，這是一個很大的擔憂，但結果卻是一個驚喜。

Yes, I think that's right.

是的，我認為這是正確的。

Not only, as Elon said, we expressed it as a concern.

正如埃隆所說，我們不僅將其表達為擔憂。

We had positive comps both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter and in orders in the second quarter.

我們在第二季度的同比和環比以及訂單中都有積極的業績。

But since then, orders have accelerated in July as we noted in our shareholder letter.

但從那以後，正如我們在股東信中指出的那樣，7 月份的訂單有所增加。

And it accelerated further since the handover event on Friday for the Model 3.

自周五 Model 3 的交接活動以來，它進一步加速。

So it clearly shows that S and X as our flagship products have a strong position in the market and strong demand.

所以它清楚地表明S和X作為我們的旗艦產品在市場上的地位和需求旺盛。

And that's super encouraging that we've got those -- a strong product lineup with 3 cars that are proving to be very popular in their individual segments.

這是非常令人鼓舞的，我們已經擁有了這些——一個強大的產品陣容，其中 3 款汽車被證明在各自的細分市場中非常受歡迎。

Yes.

是的。

In fact, I don't know -- I think we mentioned some of this in the earnings letter, but just some of the key stats on July orders for S and X were...

事實上，我不知道——我想我們在收益信中提到了其中一些，但只是 S 和 X 7 月訂單的一些關鍵統計數據是......

Yes.

是的。

July orders were 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate, so we've accelerated off of Q2 into July.

7 月的訂單比我們第二季度的平均每週訂單率高出 15%，因此我們從第二季度到 7 月加快了速度。

And as we noted in the shareholder letter, deliveries grew by 53% compared to the Q2 '16 in a flat luxury vehicle market.

正如我們在股東信中指出的那樣，與 16 年第二季度相比，在平坦的豪華車市場交付量增長了 53%。

So we're gaining share in a flat to market down -- to down market, and the order rate's accelerated.

因此，我們正在從市場下跌的公寓中獲得份額 - 到下跌的市場，並且訂單率加快。

Yes.

是的。

So July was one of our best months ever.

所以七月是我們有史以來最好的月份之一。

Yes.

是的。

Again, contrary to our expectations, I want to emphasize.

再次，與我們的期望相反，我想強調一下。

Of course, we know who knows if this will continue, but all indications are that it will, so that's very exciting.

當然，我們知道誰知道這是否會繼續，但所有跡像都表明它會繼續，所以這非常令人興奮。

As a side note, we're also making great progress on our internal Autopilot software.

附帶說明一下，我們的內部 Autopilot 軟件也取得了長足的進步。

It's getting better and better.

它越來越好。

I'm really, really excited.

我真的，真的很興奮。

I test drive the latest development release as soon as it comes out, and I'm like, this is really getting to be something special.

最新的開發版本一出來，我就試駕它，我想，這真的很特別。

Because, yes, it's really -- and I think it's going to accelerate from here.

因為，是的，它真的——而且我認為它會從這裡加速。

And the talent that we're seeing drawing on the technical side for Autopilot is really world class.

我們看到的 Autopilot 技術方面的人才確實是世界級的。

I don't think there's -- it's unmatched anywhere, I would say.

我認為沒有——我會說，它在任何地方都是無與倫比的。

So let's see then.

那麼讓我們看看吧。

Model 3 orders are -- net-net orders, there's not that many cancellations, there are about 1,800 a day.

Model 3的訂單是——淨訂單，取消的不多，一天1800左右。

It's important to emphasize, there -- you can't see the car unless you want to look at pictures online, you can't test drive the car.

重要的是要強調——除非你想在網上看圖片，否則你看不到這輛車，你不能試駕這輛車。

You have to put down a $1,000 deposit.

您必須支付 1,000 美元的押金。

We're not promoting the car.

我們不是在推銷這輛車。

We're not promoting the car.

我們不是在推銷這輛車。

If you go to our stores, we don't even want to talk about it really and -- because we want to talk about the thing that we can supply.

如果你去我們的商店，我們甚至不想真正談論它——因為我們想談論我們可以提供的東西。

If somebody orders a Model 3 now, it's probably late next year before they get it.

如果有人現在訂購 Model 3，他們可能要到明年年底才能拿到它。

We want to give people the car where it's like maybe a 1- or 2-month wait for an S or an X. And I think the point that we're trying to make that the S is still a superior sedan seems to come through -- and it is true.

我們希望為人們提供一輛 S 或 X 可能需要等待 1 或 2 個月的汽車。而且我認為我們試圖讓 S 仍然是一款高級轎車的觀點似乎得到了體現——這是真的。

Things get a little confusing because of the nomenclature of being Model 3, but Model S and X, which is I guess sort of my fault being too quick -- too clever for my own good there, because it was supposed to be the Model E. As you can tell, I have a wonderful sense of humor, and -- but then people mistook that for generation 3. But in fact, if you look at, say -- what we're really on right now, I would say is approximately generation 4. But we're on generation 4 of S, X and 3 at the risk of really confusing matters.

由於 Model 3 的命名，事情變得有點混亂，但是 Model S 和 X，我想這是我的錯太快了——太聰明了，不利於我自己，因為它應該是 Model E . 正如你所知道的，我有一種極好的幽默感，而且——但後來人們誤認為這是第 3 代。但事實上，如果你看看，說——我們現在真正在做什麼，我會說大約是第 4 代。但我們在 S、X 和 3 的第 4 代上，冒著真正混淆問題的風險。

Model 3 is generation 4 and so -- but so are S and X. We evolve the technology all at the same time.

Model 3 是第 4 代，所以 S 和 X 也是如此。我們同時發展這項技術。

So overall looking really good.

所以整體看起來真的很好。

And then Solar Roof.

然後是太陽能屋頂。

We have installed and working the Solar Roof tiles.

我們已經安裝並使用了太陽能屋頂瓦片。

I have it on my house.

我家裡有

J.B. has it on his house.

J.B. 在他家有它。

We have -- I think we included some of the pictures in the earnings letter.

我們有 - 我認為我們在收益信中包含了一些圖片。

I want to be -- I want to emphasize those are un -- the roof, there's no Photoshop-ing on the roof.

我想成為——我想強調那些不是——屋頂，屋頂上沒有Photoshop。

That is actually how it looks.

這實際上是它的外觀。

And it wasn't taken by some amaze -- it was like take some pics with your phone and send them over.

它並沒有被一些驚奇所拍——就像用你的手機拍了一些照片然後發過來。

That's what we're talking about here, not some special lighting conditions, pro photographer art situation.

這就是我們在這裡談論的內容，而不是一些特殊的照明條件，專業攝影師的藝術情況。

And this is version 1. I think this roof's going to look really knockout as we just keep iterating.

這是第 1 版。我認為隨著我們不斷迭代，這個屋頂看起來會非常棒。

Now it is a very challenging technical task to get this right, get the costs good, streamline the installation process, ramp up the production.

現在，要做到這一點、降低成本、簡化安裝過程、提高產量是一項非常具有挑戰性的技術任務。

Again, this is sort of -- it follows some of the S-curve to vehicles where it starts up very slow -- it starts up very slow, but then it grows exponentially.

再一次，這有點像 - 它遵循一些 S 曲線到啟動非常緩慢的車輛 - 它啟動非常緩慢，但隨後呈指數增長。

Also, our conventional solar is doing quite well and generating significant positive cash flow, standard flat panel stuff, which I think is solar the right solution for any product to -- for any kind of flat roof situation, which is most commercial installations on a lot of houses or some part of the roof where it's just really not visible and, therefore, does not have any aesthetic -- it doesn't really matter from an aesthetic standpoint.

此外，我們的傳統太陽能做得很好，產生了顯著的正現金流，標準平板材料，我認為太陽能是任何產品的正確解決方案——適用於任何類型的平屋頂情況，這是大多數商業安裝在許多房屋或屋頂的某些部分實際上是不可見的，因此沒有任何美感-從美學的角度來看，這並不重要。

And then batteries are also making great, great progress in the battery front.

然後電池也在電池方面取得了巨大的進步。

I'm hoping to do something around the International Astronautical Congress, which is in Adelaide this year, but not promising anything.

我希望圍繞今年在阿德萊德舉行的國際宇航大會做點什麼，但我沒有做任何承諾。

But we're aspirationally going to have a very substantial portion of the battery pack already done in about 8 weeks, which is hard because this -- we have all the shipping and logistic challenges of getting things across the Pacific.

但我們希望在大約 8 週內完成大部分電池組的工作，這很困難，因為我們面臨著跨越太平洋的所有運輸和物流挑戰。

I'm not promising anything.

我不承諾任何事情。

It's an aspirational goal.

這是一個有抱負的目標。

Team's working super hard to make it happen.

團隊非常努力地實現它。

But I'm excited by the prospect, and I feel, of course, optimistic that, that will take place.

但我對前景感到興奮，當然，我對這將會發生感到樂觀。

So yes, really, I think -- and we're really proud of the Tesla team for getting to this point.

所以是的，真的，我認為——我們真的為特斯拉團隊能走到這一步感到自豪。

And we want to thank the whole Tesla team.

我們要感謝整個特斯拉團隊。

We already have 33,000 people at this point who are working hard to achieve some very difficult things.

目前我們已經有 33,000 人正在努力實現一些非常困難的事情。

And I can be proud to work with such a great team.

我很自豪能與這樣一個偉大的團隊一起工作。

So let's maybe go to -- anything else you want to add, guys?

所以我們也許可以去——你們還想補充什麼，伙計們？

All right, let's go to questions.

好吧，讓我們去提問。

All right.

好的。

Sharie, let's open it up to Q&A.

Sharie，讓我們打開問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Yes, not the 1 question with 8 nested questions.

是的，不是帶有 8 個嵌套問題的 1 個問題。

Correct.

正確的。

No nesting.

沒有嵌套。

One question, Part A through H.

一個問題，A 到 H 部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Consumer Edge Research 的 James Albertine。

Congratulations on the first 30 deliveries last week.

祝賀上週的前 30 次交貨。

It was a great event.

這是一個偉大的事件。

Wanted to ask, if I may, my one question on capital expenditures.

如果可以的話，想問我關於資本支出的一個問題。

Wanted to get an idea.

想出個主意。

What comes next with respect to some of your spending on the Model 3?

關於您在 Model 3 上的部分支出，接下來會發生什麼？

And then, I guess, if I can nest one in related to Gigafactory.

然後，我想，如果我可以嵌套一個與 Gigafactory 相關的。

It's one question on CapEx but really want to understand what the big next steps are in 3Q and 4Q as we start to kind of build out our models and figure it out from there.

這是關於資本支出的一個問題，但當我們開始構建我們的模型並從那裡弄清楚時，我們真的想了解第三季度和第四季度的重大下一步是什麼。

Certainly.

當然。

I mean, I do want to emphasize, like, the -- a lot of this is actually very hard for us to know.

我的意思是，我確實想強調，例如，我們實際上很難知道其中的很多內容。

When we make mistakes, it's because we're stupid not because we're trying to mislead anyone.

當我們犯錯時，是因為我們很愚蠢，而不是因為我們試圖誤導任何人。

I just want to emphasize, I, we, sort of we aspire to be less dumb over time.

我只是想強調，我，我們，有點渴望隨著時間的推移變得不那麼愚蠢。

So if I knew it, I would tell you.

所以如果我知道的話，我會告訴你的。

It's not like I've got this like secret hand of cards that I'm holding close to my vest, and I'm not telling you.

這不像我有這樣的秘密手牌，我拿著靠近我的背心，我不會告訴你。

It's just fundamentally impossible to predict the exponential part of the manufacturing S-curve.

根本不可能預測製造 S 曲線的指數部分。

It's crazy hard.

這太瘋狂了。

And S-curve is a simplification because it's really running through a series of constraints that, if you -- and so it's like a really jagged sort of upward growth, and it'll plateau, and then it'll grow rapidly, and it'll plateau again.

S 曲線是一種簡化，因為它實際上是通過一系列約束條件運行的會再次停滯不前。

And then sometimes it'll go backwards because something broke.

然後有時它會因為某些東西壞了而倒退。

When I said manufacturing hell on -- and supply chain hell on Friday, I meant it.

當我在周五說製造地獄——以及供應鏈地獄時，我是認真的。

I mean -- but we know this.

我的意思是——但我們知道這一點。

Signed up for it, not blaming hell because we bought the ticket.

報名參加，不要因為我們買了票而責備地獄。

So I -- but I think at a high level, I don't think we should expect any significant negative surprises.

所以我 - 但我認為在高層次上，我認為我們不應該期待任何重大的負面驚喜。

There will be -- as you look at the case, there tends to be some cost growth in CapEx for unexpected things.

將會有——當你看到這個案例時，資本支出往往會因意想不到的事情而出現一些成本增長。

We've got to expedite this.

我們必須加快這一進程。

You've got to fix that.

你必須解決這個問題。

Or this supplier doesn't work out.

或者這個供應商不行。

Or this machine we bought doesn't work out.

或者我們買的這台機器壞了。

And you've got to be all hands on deck 24/7 to fix it or replace it.

而且您必須全天候 24/7 全天候進行修理或更換。

But I don't expect any significant -- I think that it's relatively contained.

但我不認為有任何重大意義——我認為它是相對可控的。

Deepak, do you want to...

迪帕克，你想...

Yes, I mean, I think maybe the other way, James, to answer your question is...

是的，我的意思是，我認為詹姆斯，也許換一種方式來回答你的問題是......

You may need to talk close to this.

您可能需要就此談一談。

Yes, I think you're asking where we're spending the money.

是的，我想你是在問我們把錢花在了哪裡。

I think it's in the completion of the Model 3. We are paying off on the equipment.

我認為這是在完成 Model 3。我們正在為設備付出代價。

And also we're just continuing with the construction of Gigafactory to continue to scale that, and so that's where majority of our capital...

而且我們還在繼續建造 Gigafactory 以繼續擴大規模，這就是我們大部分資本的地方......

Overwhelmingly.

壓倒性的。

Let's be fair.

讓我們公平一點。

Overwhelmingly is Model 3. Obviously, there are expenditures associated with Solar Roof, and with our Buffalo factory, we're trying to keep those relatively light for the next few months.

壓倒性的是 Model 3。顯然，有與太陽能屋頂相關的支出，對於我們的布法羅工廠，我們正努力在接下來的幾個月內保持這些相對較輕的成本。

Yes.

是的。

And the marketing and sales are growing our infrastructure there and our Supercharging networks, so those are the other small pieces.

營銷和銷售正在發展我們那裡的基礎設施和我們的超級充電網絡，所以這些是其他小部分。

Yes.

是的。

But just on Buffalo, if I may, I really want to emphasize we expect the Buffalo Gigafactory to be a powerhouse of solar panel and solar glass tile output.

但就在布法羅，如果可以的話，我真的想強調一下，我們希望布法羅超級工廠成為太陽能電池板和太陽能玻璃磚輸出的強國。

It is going to be a kickass facility.

這將是一個非常棒的設施。

We've made that commitment to the state of New York.

我們已經對紐約州做出了這一承諾。

We are going to keep that commitment.

我們將信守這一承諾。

So -- and then we're also thinking hard about where do we put Gigafactories 3, 4, 5 and 6. We expect to keep the majority of our production in the U.S. and -- but, it's obviously going to make sense to establish a Gigafactory in China and Europe, just to serve the markets there because it's not too -- (inaudible) in California and truck them halfway around the world, particularly when you're trying to make things as affordable as possible, that really hurt.

所以 - 然後我們也在認真考慮我們將 Gigafactories 3、4、5 和 6 放在哪裡。我們希望將我們的大部分生產保留在美國 - 但是，建立在中國和歐洲設立超級工廠，只是為了服務那裡的市場，因為它不是太——（聽不清）在加利福尼亞，然後用卡車把它們運到世界的另一端，特別是當你試圖讓東西盡可能便宜時，這真的很傷人。

We really want to get -- make our cars as affordable as possible, and so that does require some amount of local market production, particularly for the mass market vehicles in order to make it as accessible as possible.

我們真的想要——讓我們的汽車盡可能地負擔得起，因此這確實需要一定數量的本地市場生產，特別是對於大眾市場車輛，以使其盡可能容易獲得。

So we think hard about that.

所以我們認真考慮。

I think we'll have some announcements on at least a few of those locations before the end of the year.

我認為我們將在今年年底之前至少在其中一些地點發布一些公告。

But we don't expect to spend significant money on them.

但我們不希望在他們身上花費大量資金。

Just it's identifying the location, doing the long lead-time stuff, the permits, the planning.

只是確定位置，做長交貨期的東西，許可，規劃。

This doesn't cost a lot of money.

這並不需要很多錢。

It's only when you really start moving dirt and putting up concrete and steel and buying equipment that the big money starts to be required.

只有當你真正開始移動泥土、建造混凝土和鋼材併購買設備時，才開始需要大筆資金。

Yes.

是的。

So, anything you want to add on that?

那麼，您有什麼要補充的嗎？

It's good.

很好。

CapEx on Model S and X is pretty -- it's like really not -- it's minor compared to -- yes, yes, yes.

Model S 和 X 上的資本支出很漂亮 - 就像真的不是 - 與 - 是的，是的，是的相比，它是次要的。

There is continued improvement, of course, to keep pace with Model 3 so that all of our products are at the same level of technology, but it's small potatoes compared to the Model 3.

當然，為了跟上 Model 3 的步伐，我們還在不斷改進，以便我們所有的產品都處於相同的技術水平，但與 Model 3 相比，它只是小菜一碟。

And you're continuing to achieve cost reductions in S and X, so there's a bit of investment but (inaudible).

而且您將繼續降低 S 和 X 的成本，因此需要進行一些投資，但是（聽不清）。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

And in cases where we see cost reductions in S and X, there are cases where we want to pass along some of those cost reductions to customers.

在我們看到 S 和 X 成本降低的情況下，我們希望將部分成本降低傳遞給客戶。

So yes, so overall feeling really -- this is like maybe the best I've ever felt about Tesla, to be frank.

所以是的，所以整體感覺真的 - 坦率地說，這可能是我對特斯拉的最好感覺。

It's like really -- I mean, last week stressed the hell out of me, but I really think that this is -- this is probably the best I've ever felt about the company.

這就像真的 - 我的意思是，上週讓我感到壓力很大，但我真的認為這是 - 這可能是我對公司的最好感覺。

And -- oh and one thing I wanted to correct.

而且——哦，還有一件事我想糾正。

I think in a prior call, publicly I had said that Model Y or our compact SUV, which is called Model Y, may or may not be -- would be totally architecture.

我認為在之前的電話會議中，我曾公開說過 Model Y 或我們的緊湊型 SUV，稱為 Model Y，可能會或可能不會——完全是建築。

I've gone -- I've decided -- well, upon the counsel of my executive team, thank you, thank you, thanks, guys, who reeled me back from the Cliffs of Insanity, much appreciated, the Model Y will, in fact, be using a substantial carryover from Model 3 in order to bring it to market faster.

我已經走了——我已經決定了——好吧，在我的執行團隊的建議下，謝謝你們，謝謝你們，他們把我從瘋狂的懸崖上拉了回來，非常感謝，Model Y 將，事實上，為了更快地將其推向市場，我們正在使用 Model 3 的大量遺留產品。

Yes.

是的。

So that will really accelerate our ability to get Model Y to market faster for -- because it's fundamentally to -- you have people who prefer a sedan, people who prefer an SUV and, in fact, the SUV market is larger which is the biggest single product I believe in the world.

因此，這將真正加速我們更快地將 Model Y 推向市場的能力——因為它從根本上是——你有喜歡轎車的人，喜歡 SUV 的人，事實上，SUV 市場更大，這是最大的我相信世界的單品。

So which I thank my executive team for stopping me from being a fool.

所以我感謝我的執行團隊阻止我成為一個傻瓜。

And yes.

是的。

The Model Y, what the hell, will be -- have relatively low technical and production reschedule result.

Model Y，到底是什麼——技術和生產重新安排的結果相對較低。

I still think we want to do the crazy thing in the future, but we will punt that to after the model -- until after the compact SUV.

我仍然認為我們想在未來做瘋狂的事情，但我們將把它放在模型之後——直到緊湊型 SUV 之後。

Anything else that you think (inaudible).

您認為的其他任何內容（聽不清）。

So yes, we'll try to leave as much time for questions as we can.

所以是的，我們會盡可能多地留出提問時間。

We have a lot of operational issues to get back to but like to make work on that manufacturing ramp, and I'm always incredibly grateful for anyone who has -- who is an investor in Tesla.

我們有很多運營問題要解決，但我們喜歡在製造坡道上開展工作，我總是非常感謝任何擁有特斯拉投資者的人。

You put your faith in us.

你相信我們。

We will do whatever is necessary to reward that faith.

我們將做任何必要的事情來獎勵這種信念。

Our next question comes from Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rod Lache。

I was going to ask you which is harder, AI or AV.

我要問你哪個更難，AI 還是 AV。

But I think at this point, we may not know the answer.

但我認為，在這一點上，我們可能不知道答案。

Well, as you know, I'm terrified of AI.

好吧，如你所知，我害怕人工智能。

I've read that.

我讀過那個。

Yes, you may have heard that in a few places, and it's just something we -- anyway, I definitely don't want to derail the conversation on that front.

是的，您可能已經在一些地方聽說過，這只是我們 - 無論如何，我絕對不想破壞這方面的對話。

It's just something that I think anything that represents -- that is a risk to the public deserves at least insight from the government because one of the mandates of the government is the public well-being, and that's -- insight is different from oversight.

這只是我認為任何代表的東西——對公眾構成的風險至少應該得到政府的洞察，因為政府的任務之一是公眾福祉，那就是——洞察不同於監督。

So it's just -- at least the government can gain insight to understand what's going on and then decide what rules are appropriate to ensure public safety.

所以這只是——至少政府可以深入了解正在發生的事情，然後決定哪些規則適合確保公共安全。

That is what I'm advocating for.

這就是我所倡導的。

I'm not advocating for that we stop development of AI or any of the sort of straw man hyperbole, things that have been written, I do think there are great benefits to AI.

我並不是主張我們停止人工智能的發展或任何那種稻草人的誇張，已經寫過的東西，我確實認為人工智能有很大的好處。

We just need to make sure that they are indeed benefits and we don't do something really dumb.

我們只需要確保它們確實是好處，並且我們不會做一些非常愚蠢的事情。

Okay.

好的。

Well, I hope that doesn't count against my Tesla questions.

好吧，我希望這不會影響我的特斯拉問題。

But the 2 things I was going to ask you were you mentioned in the letter this confidence in getting the 25% margin on Model 3. Could you just mention what the level of production is that you feel you need to get to in order to get there?

但是我要問你的兩件事是你在信中提到的對獲得 Model 3 25% 利潤率的信心。你能不能簡單地說一下你覺得你需要達到什麼樣的生產水平才能獲得那裡？

What run rate?

什麼運行速度？

And secondly, there have been a fair number of battery announcements, solid-state battery technology, Toyota and a few others.

其次，有相當多的電池公告、固態電池技術、豐田和其他一些公司。

Can you -- what's your general assessment.

你能 - 你的一般評價是什麼。

Are we getting close to some kind of breakthroughs here or just what's your thoughts?

我們是否正在接近某種突破，或者您的想法是什麼？

Oh, God.

天啊。

Okay, here's my opinion of the battery breakthrough of the week, battery breakthrough du jour.

好的，這是我對本週電池突破的看法，即日電池突破。

When somebody has like some great claim that they've got this awesome battery, you know what?

當有人喜歡聲稱他們擁有這種很棒的電池時，你知道嗎？

Send us a sample.

寄給我們樣品。

Or if you don't trust us, send it to an independent lab where the parameters can be verified.

或者，如果您不信任我們，請將其發送到可以驗證參數的獨立實驗室。

Otherwise, STF.

否則，STF。

Yes.

是的。

So everything works on PowerPoint.

所以一切都在 PowerPoint 上運行。

If you like, I'll give you a PowerPoint presentation about teleportation to the Andromeda Galaxy.

如果你願意，我會給你一個關於傳送到仙女座星系的 PowerPoint 演示文稿。

That doesn't mean it works.

這並不意味著它有效。

So Tesla is the biggest buyer of lithium-ion batteries on earth.

所以特斯拉是地球上最大的鋰離子電池買家。

You know who people come to first when they've got a lithium-ion battery?

你知道當人們擁有鋰離子電池時，誰是第一個來的嗎？

Us.

我們。

Because we're their biggest customer.

因為我們是他們最大的客戶。

I would love it if we could have some breakthrough.

如果我們能有一些突破，我會很高興的。

It'd be awesome.

這會很棒。

I think there are some interesting things on the horizon, but then the time it takes from something working in the lab to working at moderate production levels, to working at higher production levels, to optimizing the cost is several years.

我認為即將出現一些有趣的事情，但是從實驗室工作到中等生產水平工作，再到更高生產水平工作，再到優化成本所需的時間是幾年。

So it's not like it suddenly pops out of nowhere.

所以它不是突然冒出來的。

J.B., do you want to add to that?

J.B.，你想補充一下嗎？

I totally agree with the sort of cautious skepticism on all these announcements.

我完全同意對所有這些公告的謹慎懷疑。

And just more specifically on the solid-state batteries, Rod.

更具體地說，關於固態電池，羅德。

I mean, we do -- we've talked to a number of different groups that are researching this.

我的意思是，我們這樣做了——我們已經與許多正在研究這個問題的不同團體進行了交談。

We actually have tested a number of those different prototype -- very early prototype single cells.

我們實際上已經測試了許多不同的原型——非常早期的原型單電池。

But it's -- we don't yet see anything that changes our strategy, and we don't see anything there that's...

但它是——我們還沒有看到任何改變我們戰略的東西，我們也沒有看到任何東西……

However, we'd love it if it did.

但是，如果有的話，我們會很高興的。

Please.

請。

Can someone please come up with a battery breakthrough.

有人可以想出一個電池突破。

We'd love it.

我們會喜歡的。

We would be the first ones to want to implement it.

我們將是第一個想要實施它的人。

Yes.

是的。

Totally.

完全。

I mean, there are some breakthroughs that I think are achievable.

我的意思是，我認為有些突破是可以實現的。

I -- they're confidential, so I can't talk about them on this call.

我——他們是機密的，所以我不能在這次電話會議上談論他們。

But there's one particular avenue that I am confident could be made to work that would be not -- from a -- the most significant one -- breakthrough in a while.

但是，我有信心可以使一種特殊的途徑發揮作用，而這種途徑在一段時間內不會——從最重要的途徑——突破。

But again, you've got to make it work in the lab.

但同樣，你必須讓它在實驗室中工作。

It doesn't yet work in the lab.

它還不能在實驗室工作。

It's promising in the lab.

在實驗室裡很有希望。

You go from the lab to small production, then you go to large production, then you get to cost optimization.

從實驗室到小規模生產，再到大生產，再到成本優化。

These are several years, okay.

這幾年了，好吧。

I wish it were shorter, but that's the way it goes.

我希望它更短，但這就是它的方式。

So don't worry about that.

所以不用擔心。

And yes, so was there...

是的，那裡也有……

The 25% Model 3 gross margin target.

25% 的 Model 3 毛利率目標。

When will we get there?

我們什麼時候到那裡？

Yes.

是的。

So J.B. might want to elaborate on this, but I feel like the point at which we are at steady-state 5,000 units a week for Model 3 is about when we've reached the 25% gross margin level.

所以 J.B. 可能想詳細說明這一點，但我覺得 Model 3 每週穩定生產 5,000 輛的時間點大約是我們達到 25% 的毛利率水平。

So it wouldn't be right when we get to 5,000 because initially when you get to 5,000 a week, there's still a lot of overtime.

所以當我們達到 5,000 時是不對的，因為最初當你達到每週 5,000 時，仍然有很多加班。

You're still expediting parts from all around the world.

您仍在為來自世界各地的零件加急。

So you've a lot of expedite fees.

所以你有很多加急費。

You've got a lot of overtime, and so it takes probably from the point at which you get to the 5,000 a week, it's probably another 3 or 4 months before you hit the 25% gross margin.

你有很多加班時間，所以可能從你達到每週 5,000 的點開始，可能還需要 3 或 4 個月才能達到 25% 的毛利率。

Would you agree, Deepak?

你同意嗎，迪帕克？

I agree.

我同意。

You're -- yes, I was just going to be more cautious.

你是——是的，我只是要更加謹慎。

But I think...

但我覺得...

It's something like that.

是這樣的。

It's certainly -- you need to reach a production level and then optimize at that production level.

當然——您需要達到生產水平，然後在該生產水平上進行優化。

Yes, I mean, I think ultimately it's a variety of factors, including material cost and cell and the efficiencies we achieve at the Gigafactory and ourselves.

是的，我的意思是，我認為最終是多種因素，包括材料成本和電池以及我們在 Gigafactory 和我們自己實現的效率。

And I'm -- we are very confident we will achieve the 25% target, firstly on Model 3.

我 - 我們非常有信心實現 25% 的目標，首先是在 Model 3 上。

For sure next year.

明年肯定。

100%.

100%。

It's a question of actually when 100%...

問題是什麼時候100%...

Again, I say 100% probability of achieving that at some point next year.

我再說一次，我說在明年某個時候實現這一目標的可能性是 100%。

Yes.

是的。

And I feel really good about it because the bill of material that we have is so well defined and so clear in our premiums that we have on prototypes is (inaudible).

我對此感覺非常好，因為我們擁有的材料清單定義如此明確，並且在我們的原型上的保費中如此清晰（聽不清）。

Another way of saying we're significantly less dumb this time, we think.

我們認為，另一種說法是，這次我們明顯不那麼愚蠢了。

Yes.

是的。

So and the labor hours required are significantly lower, there will be a structured manufacturing.

因此，所需的勞動時間顯著降低，將會有結構化的製造。

It's designed for manufacturing.

它專為製造而設計。

Exactly.

確切地。

And so all of those give me much more confidence in this target.

所以所有這些都讓我對這個目標更有信心。

And exactly when we'll achieve, I think we'll give you more clarity over time.

確切地說，我們什麼時候能實現，我想隨著時間的推移，我們會讓你更加清楚。

Yes.

是的。

And I'd like to give some credit to our suppliers here.

我想在這裡給我們的供應商一些功勞。

With Roadster, and certainly with Model S and to a slightly less degree with Model X, yes, we often could not get the top suppliers or -- and we certainly couldn't get the A-Team at the top suppliers.

對於 Roadster，當然對於 Model S，對於 Model X，我們通常無法獲得頂級供應商，或者——我們當然無法獲得頂級供應商的 A-Team。

What's great about the Model 3 is we have the A supplier and we have the A-Team at the A supplier.

Model 3 的優點在於我們擁有 A 供應商，並且我們在 A 供應商處擁有 A 團隊。

I can't tell you how important this is.

我無法告訴你這有多重要。

It makes a massive difference.

它有很大的不同。

So just a thank you to all the suppliers that worked so hard to get us to this point.

因此，感謝所有辛勤工作使我們達到這一點的供應商。

They deserve a lot of credit for any success that we have.

我們取得的任何成功都值得他們稱讚。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

In just thinking about your liquidity position, while you're operating with more cash than you historically have, $3 billion, I see you're also guiding to $2 billion CapEx in the back half and you previously said $1 billion of gross cash is as low as you're comfortable operating at.

僅考慮您的流動性狀況，雖然您的運營現金比歷史上多，30 億美元，但我看到您也在後半部分引導至 20 億美元的資本支出，您之前說過 10 億美元的總現金是低，因為您可以舒適地操作。

So you guide to positive cash from operations the back half, presumably on Model 3 ramp in 4Q.

因此，您可以從後半部分的運營中獲得正現金，大概是在第四季度的 Model 3 坡道上。

But if it's only a little positive, then I guess you would be close to your targeted cash level.

但如果它只是有點積極，那麼我猜你會接近你的目標現金水平。

So the question is can you help us size up how positive do you expect the cash from operations to be in the back half?

所以問題是您能否幫助我們評估您對運營現金在後半部分的預期有多積極？

And if that level of cash from operations plus whatever remains available to draw on your asset-backed line, if that's sufficient cushion for you relative to your $1 billion target or whether it might make sense to do another equity raise?

如果該水平的運營現金加上您的資產支持線可動用的任何剩餘資金，相對於您的 10 億美元目標而言，這是否足以為您提供緩衝，或者是否有可能進行另一次股權融資？

Yes.

是的。

Deepak, do you want to...

迪帕克，你想...

Yes, sure, sure, Ryan.

是的，當然，當然，瑞恩。

So we expect our operating cash flows to be significantly better in the second half compared to the first half.

因此，我們預計下半年我們的經營現金流將明顯好於上半年。

At their highest level, scaling generates cash.

在最高水平，擴展會產生現金。

Yes, it certainly does.

是的，確實如此。

And it's a better situation than S and X. And our cash conversion cycle, particularly for the next full quarter is going to be really great while we are shipping Model 3s in North America.

這比 S 和 X 的情況要好。而且我們的現金轉換週期，特別是在下一個完整季度，在我們在北美運送 Model 3 時會非常好。

And in addition...

另外...

And one thing, perhaps you were about to get to it is -- is that the -- with Model 3, with our suppliers, we've been able to get -- negotiate much better terms, payment terms.

有一件事，也許你即將談到它 - 是 - 與 Model 3，我們的供應商，我們已經能夠 - 談判更好的條款，付款條款。

The payment terms are significantly longer.

付款期限明顯更長。

So I think we're close to, is that 60?

所以我認為我們已經接近了，是 60 嗎？

Close to 60, correct.

接近60，正確。

Close to 60 days payment terms with our suppliers.

與我們的供應商的付款期限接近 60 天。

The -- and we are also able to make the car a lot faster.

——而且我們還能夠使汽車更快。

So obviously, the nirvana is that we can make the car and get paid for the car before we have to pay our suppliers, which then the faster you grow, the faster your cash position grows.

所以很明顯，必殺技是我們可以製造汽車並在我們必須向供應商付款之前獲得汽車的付款，然後你增長得越快，你的現金頭寸增長得越快。

Obviously that's like the promised land right there.

顯然，這就像那裡的應許之地。

And that's how it's -- that certainly -- that's how it's -- what we've aimed for.

這就是它的方式——當然——這就是它的方式——我們的目標。

And I think we will achieve that, maybe not immediately, but pretty quickly.

我認為我們會實現這一目標，也許不是立即，但很快。

Now that said, there may be some wisdom in having a cash cushion for unexpected events.

話雖如此，為意外事件提供現金緩衝可能會有一些智慧。

You just never know if there's going to be some significant force majeure events in the world.

你永遠不知道世界上是否會發生一些重大的不可抗力事件。

It could be an earthquake in California, for example.

例如，這可能是加利福尼亞的地震。

And -- but we're not, at this point, considering an equity raise.

並且——但在這一點上，我們還沒有考慮進行股權融資。

We are thinking about debt, but we're not thinking about an equity raise.

我們正在考慮債務，但我們不考慮股權融資。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just the follow-up is about the $1 billion of desired minimum gross cash.

緊隨其後的是大約 10 億美元的所需最低總現金。

Does that go up when the Model 3 launches because you're a bigger company?

當 Model 3 推出時，這是否會因為你是一家更大的公司而上升？

Or does it go down because of what you just said about the ability to generate cash and working capital while production is ramping?

還是因為你剛才所說的在產量增加時產生現金和營運資金的能力而下降？

In the long run, it will go up as our balance sheet grows.

從長遠來看，它會隨著我們資產負債表的增長而上升。

And just to finish off on your question, we also have liquidity through the lines of credit, our ABL line is -- we've just grown it to $1.9 billion.

為了結束你的問題，我們還通過信貸額度提供流動性，我們的 ABL 額度是 - 我們剛剛將其增長到 19 億美元。

We have untapped $800 million there.

我們在那裡尚未開發 8 億美元。

Of course, how much we can tap there depends on our borrowing base but that's a source of liquidity.

當然，我們可以在那裡挖掘多少取決於我們的借貸基礎，但這是流動性的來源。

And then for our solar leased assets, we have $700 million of funding which is untapped on our tax equity funds and aggregation debt.

然後對於我們的太陽能租賃資產，我們有 7 億美元的資金尚未用於我們的稅收股權基金和匯總債務。

So we have significant amounts of liquidity to be able to fund those lines too.

因此，我們也有大量的流動性可以為這些產品線提供資金。

Yes.

是的。

One side point that's perhaps worth noting is that some of these people look at our sort of finished goods inventory and compare that to other car companies, but they compare it in the wrong way.

可能值得注意的一點是，其中一些人查看了我們的成品庫存並將其與其他汽車公司進行比較，但他們以錯誤的方式進行比較。

Because Tesla does direct distribution, we are the dealers.

因為特斯拉做直銷，我們是經銷商。

You really -- to accurately compare Tesla to other car companies, you must include the finished goods inventory, not just at the car companies, but at the dealers.

你真的 - 為了準確地將特斯拉與其他汽車公司進行比較，你必須包括成品庫存，不僅在汽車公司，而且在經銷商處。

And typically, the -- that combined time of finished goods from manufacturer all the way through to dealer to an end customer is, I believe, on the order of 90 days.

通常，我相信從製造商到經銷商再到最終客戶的成品總時間約為 90 天。

So it may be 70 to 90 days.

所以可能需要 70 到 90 天。

For other OEMs.

對於其他 OEM。

For the other OEMs, yes.

對於其他 OEM，是的。

And for us, that same metric would be approximately 30.

對我們來說，同樣的指標大約是 30。

So this is a -- in other words, at a systemic level, we're substantially more efficient than other carmakers when you consider the system as a whole.

所以這是一個——換句話說，在系統層面上，當你把系統作為一個整體來考慮時，我們比其他汽車製造商的效率要高得多。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Just a couple quick ones.

只是幾個快速的。

First on safety.

先說安全。

Elon, you're putting a liquid cooled supercomputer in all of your cars.

Elon，你在你所有的車裡都裝了一台液冷超級計算機。

You're obviously ramping up more and more of those.

你顯然正在增加越來越多的這些。

Whether the system is being activated or not, it's collecting data, learning, you're getting better every mile.

無論系統是否被激活，它都在收集數據、學習，你每一英里都在變得更好。

I imagine you're in a position to kind of share that data with the public or the regulators or Congress, whoever, where it matters.

我想你可以與公眾或監管機構或國會分享這些數據，無論是誰，在哪裡重要。

I haven't seen an announcement since the 40% reduction in accidents from NHTSA back in January.

自從 1 月份 NHTSA 的事故減少 40% 以來，我還沒有看到任何公告。

When could we be in a position to hear some more on this?

我們什麼時候才能聽到更多關於這方面的信息？

It's true that there is an enormous amount of sort of visual data being gathered.

確實，正在收集大量的視覺數據。

It's actually quite a challenge to process that data and then train against that data and have the vehicle learn effectively from the data, because it's just a vast quantity of data.

處理這些數據然後針對這些數據進行訓練並讓車輛有效地從數據中學習實際上是一個相當大的挑戰，因為它只是大量的數據。

I do want to emphasize that this is disaggregated from the specific vehicle.

我想強調的是，這與特定的車輛是分開的。

So we're always on the side of the owner of the car and do whatever is possible, within the bounds of the law, to protect privacy.

因此，我們始終站在車主一邊，並在法律範圍內盡一切可能保護隱私。

So -- but I don't have a good answer for you.

所以——但我沒有給你一個好的答案。

If I could answer you right now, I spend a lot of my week working on Autopilot with the Autopilot team, right down in the trenches of the individual details of how we can improve this or that or enhance the neural net, enhance vision, advance -- improved control.

如果我現在可以回答你，我一周的大部分時間都在與 Autopilot 團隊一起研究 Autopilot，就在我們如何改進這個或那個或增強神經網絡、增強視力、進步的個人細節的溝渠中——改進控制。

And I think the release that should go out soon is, I think people were really pleased with it.

而且我認為應該很快發布的版本是，我認為人們對此非常滿意。

And that is going to -- (inaudible) get actually better from there.

這將——（聽不清）實際上會從那裡變得更好。

Yes, obviously, over time an autonomous vehicle is going to be far, far safer than a person.

是的，顯然，隨著時間的推移，自動駕駛汽車將比人更安全。

Yes, it's just -- it's really hard for a person to compete.

是的，只是——一個人很難競爭。

I mean the car has 8 cameras looking 360 degrees all the time.

我的意思是這輛車有 8 個攝像頭，一直在看 360 度。

It's got onboard radar, it's got 12 high-precision ultrasonic sonars.

它有車載雷達，它有12個高精度超聲波聲納。

It's got inertial measurement units, high-accuracy GPS.

它有慣性測量單元，高精度GPS。

And over 10 tera ops of computing capability that never sleeps.

以及超過 10 兆次運算的永不休眠的計算能力。

Okay.

好的。

And just a follow-up then, on space but not on Mars but more Earth, Earth (inaudible).

然後只是一個後續行動，在太空上，但不是在火星上，而是在地球上，地球上（聽不清）。

Oh God.

天啊。

Come on, let's not get -- space.

來吧，我們不要——空間。

Come on.

來吧。

No, it's actually -- it's really relevant.

不，它實際上——它真的很相關。

I was just curious is there anything that SpaceX is doing that -- or enabling that could be advantageous to Tesla's mission to accelerate sustainable transport?

我只是好奇 SpaceX 是否正在這樣做——或者使這可能有利於特斯拉加速可持續交通的使命？

There's a recent anecdote actually that Jon just shared with me.

實際上，Jon 剛剛與我分享了最近的一則軼事。

Jon, maybe you...

喬恩，也許你...

Yes, there's some really great collaboration continuously between the SpaceX teams on materials and other challenges.

是的，SpaceX 團隊之間在材料和其他挑戰方面不斷進行著非常好的合作。

And we had a challenge in service over the past -- just over the past weeks.

我們在過去的服務中遇到了挑戰——就在過去的幾周里。

Yes, this is -- yes, in fact, just talked about this today.

是的，這是——是的，事實上，今天剛剛談到了這個。

Yes.

是的。

Where we needed to determine the porosity of an object deep within our structure and that's something that SpaceX...

我們需要確定結構深處物體的孔隙率，這就是 SpaceX...

Aluminum casting.

鋁鑄件。

Aluminum casting.

鋁鑄件。

It's something that SpaceX knows how to do.

這是SpaceX知道該怎麼做的事情。

Our team reached out to the SpaceX team.

我們的團隊聯繫了 SpaceX 團隊。

The SpaceX team helped us to solve that with some ultrasound sensors that we could quickly isolate where the issue was and take corrective action.

SpaceX 團隊通過一些超聲波傳感器幫助我們解決了這個問題，我們可以快速找出問題所在並採取糾正措施。

And that...

然後...

It saved us 8 hours of work per car.

它為我們每輛車節省了 8 小時的工作時間。

Per car.

每輛車。

That was -- that could potentially experience this issue.

那是- 可能會遇到這個問題。

And that's just 1 example of a lot of examples of how the SpaceX team and the Tesla team collaborate and we get help from them continually on material issues and other issues like that.

這只是 SpaceX 團隊和特斯拉團隊如何協作的眾多示例中的一個示例，我們在材料問題和其他類似問題上不斷地從他們那裡獲得幫助。

Yes.

是的。

There's cross-fertilization of knowledge from the rocket and spacecraft history to auto back and forth is -- I think has really been quite valuable.

從火箭和宇宙飛船的歷史到汽車來回的知識相互交流——我認為這真的很有價值。

It's something that's been very valuable for me in thinking about how do we make mass optimized vehicles, because in space, mass optimization is extremely important.

在思考我們如何製造質量優化的車輛時，這對我來說非常有價值，因為在太空中，質量優化非常重要。

On the space side, it's helpful because it -- what really goes into high-volume manufacturing of something that has to be extremely reliable.

在空間方面，它很有幫助，因為它——真正用於大批量製造的東西必須非常可靠。

So it's been good.

所以一直很好。

And of course, the companies don't compete in any way, so it's been quite helpful, actually.

當然，這些公司不會以任何方式進行競爭，所以實際上這很有幫助。

Our next question comes from Colin Langan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Colin Langan。

How do you come up with your estimate for the number of Superchargers and dealers that you need?

您如何估算出您需要的增壓器和經銷商的數量？

Because you're doubling the number of the base, the number of Superchargers, according to the release.

因為你把基地的數量翻了一番，增壓器的數量，根據發布。

But the 3 is going to have a multiple higher in terms of demand.

但就需求而言，3 將有更高的倍數。

So I mean how do you -- yes, how do you frame that and gauge that?

所以我的意思是你如何——是的，你如何構建和衡量它？

Yes.

是的。

First of all, actually I should clarify that the number of Superchargers will, in fact, triple between now and the end of next year.

首先，實際上我應該澄清一下，從現在到明年年底，增壓器的數量實際上將增加兩倍。

And that's -- we're confident that, that will address the Supercharging needs of S, X and 3. So we're trying to stay ahead of it.

那就是——我們有信心，這將滿足 S、X 和 3 的增壓需求。所以我們正努力保持領先地位。

There are occasional places where -- that are tricky to find a location, like Malibu's really difficult.

偶爾會有一些地方——很難找到一個位置，比如馬里布真的很難。

There are a few places.

有幾個地方。

But the -- we're staying ahead of that.

但是——我們保持領先。

I think it's going to be good.

我認為這會很好。

We should see some immediate relief, even for S and X customers on some of the key Supercharger locations.

我們應該會立即看到一些緩解，即使對於一些關鍵增壓器位置的 S 和 X 客戶也是如此。

We'll also be experimenting with our first sort of, I don't recall, mega Supercharger location, like a really big Supercharger location with a bunch of amenities.

我們還將嘗試我們的第一種，我不記得了，大型超級充電站，就像一個非常大的超級充電站，有很多便利設施。

So we're going to unveil the first of those relatively soon.

因此，我們將很快推出其中的第一個。

I think we'll get a sense for just sort of how cool it can be to have a great place to -- if you've been driving for 3, 4 hours, stop, have great restrooms, great food, amenities, hang out for half an hour and then be on your way.

我想我們會感覺到有一個好地方是多麼酷——如果你已經開車 3 到 4 個小時，停下來，有很棒的洗手間，美味的食物，便利設施，閒逛半小時，然後上路。

And if I could just follow up with a related question...

如果我能跟進一個相關的問題......

Well, maybe just one other point on that and how this can scale pretty efficiently.

好吧，也許只是關於這一點的另一點，以及如何可以非常有效地擴展。

We have Superchargers that serve 2 major separate needs.

我們有滿足 2 個主要獨立需求的增壓器。

There's long-distance route enabling between cities and then there's also within the cities.

城市之間有長途航線開通，城內也有開通。

And while there are definitely some congestion issues, which we're expanding out of very quickly in the cities, for the most part, the Superchargers that are in between cities have a lot of extra capacity.

雖然肯定存在一些擁堵問題，我們正在城市中迅速解決這些問題，但在大多數情況下，城市之間的增壓器有很多額外的容量。

And we've put those stations in place to serve travel between the cities, but they can absorb a lot more cars.

我們已經設置了這些站點來服務城市之間的旅行，但它們可以吸收更多的汽車。

So even if we double fleet size, it doesn't mean that we need to double the entire Supercharge network.

因此，即使我們將車隊規模翻倍，也不意味著我們需要將整個 Supercharge 網絡翻倍。

We have to address the few urban sites that are currently in high use, but that can be done much more efficiently with less CapEx.

我們必須解決目前使用率很高的少數城市站點，但這可以通過更少的資本支出更有效地完成。

So that's kind of what you're seeing.

這就是你所看到的。

And what about, just as a follow-up, the charge time?

那麼，作為後續行動，充電時間呢？

I know Porsche has said that they could charge in 15 minutes.

我知道保時捷說過他們可以在 15 分鐘內充電。

Do you think that's possible in the future?

你認為這在未來可能嗎？

And is the charge time on the 3 the same as the S?

3和S的充電時間一樣嗎？

I wasn't sure with some of the release.

我不確定某些版本。

It's about the same.

差不多。

Yes, it's comparable to the high-end S. Like your -- the recharge rate of how many miles per hour you recharge is sort of your function of the battery pack size.

是的，它可以與高端 S 相媲美。就像你的 - 你每小時充電多少英里的充電率是你的電池組大小的函數。

So like a 100-kilowatt hour pack -- because charge rate is a function of percentage of packs.

所以就像一個 100 千瓦時的電池組——因為充電率是電池組百分比的函數。

So think of 3 and the high-end S as being similar in charge rates.

所以認為 3 和高端 S 在收費率上是相似的。

And over time, we want to keep moving that rate up.

隨著時間的推移，我們希望繼續提高這一比率。

But they're similar.

但它們很相似。

One thing I want to correct from Friday, I don't think it really has much materiality, but I did misspeak at the generalist review on Friday.

我想從周五開始更正一件事，我認為它真的沒有多大意義，但我在周五的通才評論中確實說錯了。

I had said that there were 500,000 net reservations.

我說過有 500,000 個淨預訂。

Well, I did also say that I wasn't sure because I don't follow this number and that this was just a guess.

好吧，我確實也說過我不確定，因為我沒有關注這個數字，這只是一個猜測。

And so we did check for the -- to get some precision on this.

所以我們確實檢查了 -- 以獲得一些精確度。

To be more accurate, there are -- there have been 518,000 gross reservations for 3 and then -- and we have 455,000 net reservations.

更準確地說，有 - 有 518,000 個總預訂量為 3，然後 - 我們有 455,000 個淨預訂量。

But those cancellations occurred over the course of more than a year.

但這些取消發生在一年多的時間裡。

The net gain over the last -- net gain since Friday, net of cancellations, has been over 1,800 per day.

自上週五以來的淨收益（扣除取消後的淨收益）每天已超過 1,800 次。

But I just didn't want to leave people with the wrong impression.

但我只是不想給人們留下錯誤的印象。

I think this is like inconsequential because with a small amount of effort, we could easily drive the Model 3 reservation number to something much higher, but there's no point.

我認為這似乎無關緊要，因為只需稍加努力，我們就可以輕鬆地將 Model 3 的預訂數量提高到更高的水平，但這沒有意義。

It's like if you're a restaurant and you're serving hamburgers and there's like a 1.5 hour wait for the hamburger, do you really want to encourage more people to come order hamburgers?

就好像你是一家餐館，你正在供應漢堡包，而漢堡包要等 1.5 小時，你真的想鼓勵更多的人來點漢堡包嗎？

That doesn't make sense.

那沒有意義。

So I think it's neither here nor there, but I wanted to just make sure that there was not a misunderstanding.

所以我認為它既不是這裡也不是那裡，但我只是想確保沒有誤解。

And maybe just one quick point on your very fast charge time comment or question.

對於您的快速充電時間評論或問題，也許只是一個要點。

We've actually tested cells and even full battery packs that can do something like a 15-minute recharge.

我們實際上已經測試了電池，甚至是可以充電 15 分鐘的完整電池組。

But to-date, the trade-offs to achieve that, we don't feel are the right ones for the customer overall.

但迄今為止，實現這一目標的權衡，我們認為總體上對客戶來說並不合適。

You end up sacrificing on overall cost per kilowatt hour and also sacrificing on energy density in the product.

您最終會犧牲每千瓦時的總成本，並犧牲產品的能量密度。

And for something that's used not every single day, not every single charge, we feel that we've kind of hit the sweet spot in terms of the value to the customer and the best product.

對於不是每天都使用的東西，不是每次充電，我們覺得我們在對客戶的價值和最好的產品方面已經達到了最佳狀態。

And that's kind of what's guided our philosophy.

這就是指導我們哲學的東西。

But obviously there's ongoing work to reduce those trade-offs and make it better still.

但顯然，正在進行的工作是減少這些權衡並使其變得更好。

But yes, we've been pretty...

但是，是的，我們一直很漂亮......

Yes, but particularly if somebody buys like the 310-mile range Model 3, the amount -- let me tell you, the amount of times you'll have range anxiety is 0. You won't even think about it.

是的，但特別是如果有人購買像 310 英里射程 Model 3 這樣的車型，數量——讓我告訴你，你會有射程焦慮的次數是 0。你甚至不會去想它。

The next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

I have 1 question and 1 follow-up as well, please.

我也有 1 個問題和 1 個跟進，請。

In terms of the Model 3 at the delivery event, 20 of the units were for engineering validation and the first several thousand, it appears, are going to be going to employees prior to going to the general public.

就交付活動中的 Model 3 而言，其中 20 台用於工程驗證，前幾千台似乎將在面向公眾之前交付給員工。

So I guess the question is what are you hoping to learn or what might you learn from these engineering validation units that have come out from your employees?

所以我想問題是您希望學習什麼，或者您可以從您員工的這些工程驗證單元中學到什麼？

And then realistically, just what's in the (inaudible) going forward?

然後實際上，（聽不清）未來會發生什麼？

Well, they're not engineering validation units.

好吧，它們不是工程驗證單元。

They're fully certified, fully DOT approved, EPA approved production cars.

它們是完全認證、完全 DOT 批准、EPA 批准的量產車。

These are not prototypes in any way.

無論如何，這些都不是原型。

They're not validation anything.

它們不是驗證任何東西。

They are full production cars.

它們是量產車。

The reason they are initially going to employees and, in some cases investors or anyone who's been a long-time investor, is that for the first several thousand vehicles, there are problems that crop up that are rare.

他們最初選擇員工的原因，在某些情況下是投資者或任何長期投資者的人，是因為對於最初的幾千輛車，會出現罕見的問題。

On a percentage basis, they might be like 0.1% likely to occur, but then there are a whole bunch of these things that only show up 1 in 1,000 cases.

在百分比的基礎上，它們發生的可能性可能是 0.1%，但是有一大堆這樣的事情只出現在 1,000 個案例中。

And it's good to iron out these things with a tight internal feedback loop than to do it with customers.

用緊密的內部反饋循環來解決這些問題比與客戶一起做要好。

It also, to some degree, is a reward for those who work on the design, development, integration of the vehicle.

在某種程度上，它也是對那些從事車輛設計、開發和集成工作的人的獎勵。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

I mean, it's important to note, too, that all those people paid full price for the car.

我的意思是，同樣重要的是要注意，所有這些人都為這輛車支付了全價。

Yes, full price.

是的，全價。

There was no discount internally at all.

內部根本沒有折扣。

Exactly.

確切地。

Right.

正確的。

No, I mean, the root of the question is if you realistically uncover something, and even if it's 1 in 1,000, what flexibility do you think you have to be actually be able to rectify that concern in a way that won't impact your ramp?

不，我的意思是，問題的根源在於，如果你真的發現了某些東西，即使它是千分之一，你認為你必須能夠以一種不會影響你的方式真正糾正這種擔憂的靈活性坡道？

And if this is being done arguably later in a process than a traditional OEM that's not trying to ramp necessarily as aggressively as you need to, I'm just -- again, just trying to understand realistically what can be done and what kinds of things -- like perhaps you can give an example of what you might uncover and what the rectification might be.

如果這可以說是在一個過程中比傳統的原始設備製造商更晚地完成，而不是像你需要的那樣積極地增加，我只是 - 再次，只是試圖現實地理解可以做什麼以及什麼樣的事情- 也許你可以舉一個例子來說明你可能發現什麼以及可能的糾正措施。

Yes, these are not showstoppers.

是的，這些不是炫耀。

These are -- what we're talking about here are inconsistencies in the production process or in the quality control from a supplier.

這些是 - 我們在這裡談論的是生產過程或供應商質量控制中的不一致。

So they're relatively easy to correct.

所以它們相對容易糾正。

They're just -- there tends to be quite a large number of them.

它們只是——它們的數量往往相當多。

But again, only rarely occurring.

但同樣，只是很少發生。

It usually involves like a tolerance stack up or some combination of factors that we didn't anticipate.

它通常涉及諸如公差疊加或我們沒有預料到的某些因素的組合。

But they're almost always very easy to correct.

但它們幾乎總是很容易糾正。

But there are just a bunch of them and it's a lot of work.

但是只有一堆，而且工作量很大。

Yes.

是的。

And these may be software issues as well, not necessarily supplier or hardware issues.

這些也可能是軟件問題，不一定是供應商或硬件問題。

It could...

它可能...

Well, and software-hardware interaction as well.

好吧，軟件-硬件交互也是如此。

Yes.

是的。

And I think the main benefit is that we can learn about them faster and therefore, we can fix them faster.

我認為主要的好處是我們可以更快地了解它們，因此我們可以更快地修復它們。

That simply is the benefit.

這就是好處。

Right.

正確的。

Exactly.

確切地。

The people driving them and the people -- are the same ones who have to fix the problem.

駕駛他們的人和那些必須解決問題的人是同一個人。

That's a great feedback loop.

這是一個很棒的反饋循環。

And what we're doing is above and beyond others.

我們正在做的事情超越了其他人。

We have done a lot of testing like the other OEMs.

我們和其他 OEM 一樣做了很多測試。

So this is just helping us get above and beyond by selling it to our employees and getting feedback from them.

因此，這只是通過將其出售給我們的員工並從他們那裡獲得反饋來幫助我們超越自我。

And investors and -- yes.

和投資者 - 是的。

Our next question is from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的大衛坦貝里諾。

Thanks for updating with the net reservations number.

感謝您更新淨預訂號碼。

I actually want to follow along those lines on your order rates.

我實際上想遵循您的訂單價格。

You've given us additional color based off of 2Q trends and average weekly orders.

您根據 2Q 趨勢和平均每週訂單為我們提供了額外的顏色。

Can you share a little bit more maybe what the 1Q and 2Q order rate trends look like for the Model S and the X?

您能否分享更多關於 Model S 和 X 的 1Q 和 2Q 訂單率趨勢如何？

I don't think that those numbers would be helpful for predicting things in the future.

我認為這些數字對預測未來的事情沒有幫助。

And like once you get into the granularity, people read things into numbers that really don't have a lot of relevance.

就像一旦你進入粒度，人們就會把事情讀成數字，而這些數字實際上並沒有太大的相關性。

There's for sure seasonality in vehicle orders.

車輛訂單肯定有季節性。

Fewer people order cars in the dead of winter than order them in spring or summer, there's just like other retailers really.

在嚴冬訂購汽車的人比在春季或夏季訂購汽車的人少，真的和其他零售商一樣。

So I'm -- and then we do batch cars so that we'll make -- typically, at the beginning of the quarter, we'll make cars for Europe and Asia, and then we'll make cars for the East Coast of North America, then the West Coast of North America, and that's generally the sequence within a quarter.

所以我 - 然後我們會批量生產汽車，這樣我們就可以生產了 - 通常，在本季度初，我們將為歐洲和亞洲生產汽車，然後我們將為東海岸生產汽車北美，然後是北美西海岸，這通常是四分之一以內的順序。

And then you'll see someone write something where they think they've uncovered some "gotcha" where there were very few Teslas registered in a given country in a particular month.

然後你會看到有人寫了一些東西，他們認為他們發現了一些“陷阱”，即在特定月份在特定國家/地區註冊的特斯拉汽車很少。

It's like yes, because none of them have arrived.

就像是，因為他們都沒有到達。

This is meaningless extrapolation.

這是毫無意義的推斷。

Okay.

好的。

Then I guess my follow-up question would just be on your 3Q gross margin guidance of a dip below 20%.

那麼我想我的後續問題只是關於你的第三季度毛利率低於 20% 的指導。

How far below -- to phrase correctly, how dependent upon production and hitting an S-curve or ramping up do you think that below 20% is?

低於多遠——準確地說，你認為低於 20% 對生產和達到 S 曲線或上升的依賴程度如何？

Could it be a couple hundred basis points below 20% or is it just think you're going to be around that area based on what the curve that you've laid out so far is going to look like?

可能是低於 20% 的幾百個基點，還是只是根據你到目前為止所繪製的曲線的樣子，認為你將處於該區域附近？

Yes.

是的。

This is just because of Model 3 is fundamentally negative gross margin in the very beginning, because you've got a gigantic machine producing -- that's meant for 5,000 vehicles a week and it's producing a few hundred vehicles a week.

這只是因為 Model 3 一開始的毛利率基本上是負數，因為你有一台巨大的機器在生產——這意味著每週生產 5,000 輛汽車，而它每週生產幾百輛汽車。

Exactly.

確切地。

That's the sole explanation.

這是唯一的解釋。

It's a denominator problem.

這是一個分母問題。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Nothing fundamentally wrong with the...

從根本上說沒有錯...

Nothing -- yes, it's a temporary situation and it's a dent which corrects itself.

沒什麼——是的，這是一個暫時的情況，它是一個可以自我糾正的凹痕。

This is true for anything.

這對任何事情都是正確的。

If like -- if you had like a soap factory, let me tell you, your first bar of soap would be like millions of dollars, okay.

如果喜歡——如果你有一個肥皂廠，讓我告訴你，你的第一塊肥皂會像數百萬美元，好吧。

But then you get into volume production and then it's like $2, okay.

但是然後你進入批量生產，然後它就像 2 美元，好吧。

So true for any manufacturing situation.

對於任何製造情況都是如此。

Our next question is from Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Yes, just want to ask about a couple of questions around the pace of spend in the second half (inaudible).

是的，只是想問幾個關於下半年支出速度的問題（聽不清）。

Please speak up.

請說出來。

You're a bit soft.

你有點軟。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, the pace of OpEx through second half, you guided was flat.

是的，您指導的 OpEx 下半年的步伐是平穩的。

With the Model 3 going out, are you basically saying you have the operating infrastructure to handle that, but then does that ramp in 2018?

隨著 Model 3 的推出，你基本上是在說你有運營基礎設施來處理這個問題，但是在 2018 年會有所增長嗎？

And similarly for CapEx to go from 30 Model 3s up to the exit rate, you're talking $2 billion.

同樣，資本支出從 30 輛 Model 3 上升到退出率，你說的是 20 億美元。

How do we think about, a, that run rate and given how do we tie it to your exponential ramp?

我們如何考慮，a，那個運行率，並考慮到我們如何將它與你的指數斜坡聯繫起來？

And b, what does that imply for CapEx going into 2018?

b，這對進入 2018 年的資本支出意味著什麼？

Yes, so your first question was operating expenses?

是的，所以您的第一個問題是運營費用？

And do we have enough infrastructure in place to service the Model 3. And I think we're finally actually leveraging our own infrastructure and that's helping us.

我們是否有足夠的基礎設施來為 Model 3 提供服務。我認為我們最終實際上是在利用我們自己的基礎設施，這對我們有幫助。

So I'll give you an example of that.

所以我會給你一個例子。

In service, as we've talked about, we discovered that 80% of the cars that we repair don't require a lift.

在服務中，正如我們所談到的，我們發現我們維修的 80% 的汽車不需要電梯。

And so we're deploying a mobile service strategy to take 80% of the cars and fix them where it's convenient to the customer.

因此，我們正在部署一項移動服務戰略，將 80% 的汽車運送到客戶方便的地方進行維修。

Not at our location, at their location.

不在我們的位置，在他們的位置。

Make it invisible to them.

讓它對他們不可見。

Yes.

是的。

Exactly.

確切地。

Like the nice thing is like you -- like the ideal service is it's invisible.

就像美好的事物就像你一樣——就像理想的服務一樣，它是無形的。

You don't even notice it and when it's done, you love it.

你甚至不會注意到它，當它完成時，你會喜歡它。

And so what we're talking about here with the mobile service trucks, as Jon was saying, really most of the time we don't really need a lift, is that your car could be parked, it could be at your office parking lot or at your house.

所以我們在這裡談論的是移動服務卡車，正如喬恩所說，大多數時候我們真的不需要電梯，你的車可以停在你辦公室的停車場或在你家。

But let's say it's like it's at work.

但是，假設它就像在工作一樣。

The -- Tesla will come there, fix your car and by the time you need to leave for work, it's done.

——特斯拉會到那裡修好你的車，當你需要離開上班的時候，它已經完成了。

That's right.

這是正確的。

And so what that does for us is it takes 80% of the volume out of our existing footprint.

所以這對我們來說是它從我們現有的足跡中佔用了 80% 的體積。

And allows us to leverage that footprint to grow with Model 3. And we'd give you similar examples in stores.

並允許我們利用這一足跡與 Model 3 一起發展。我們會在商店中為您提供類似的示例。

So that's why we've guided to the OpEx that we've guided for the second half.

所以這就是為什麼我們已經指導了我們在下半年指導的 OpEx。

We feel like we've got leverage there and we've got plans in place to further lever that in 2018.

我們覺得我們在那裡有影響力，我們已經制定了計劃在 2018 年進一步利用它。

I think it's been really great for customers.

我認為這對客戶來說真的很棒。

I mean, this is what you want.

我的意思是，這就是你想要的。

Totally.

完全。

I mean, you don't want to bring your car into a service center.

我的意思是，你不想把你的車帶進服務中心。

You just want your car to be magically fixed in the parking lot and that's what we're going to do.

你只是想讓你的車神奇地固定在停車場，這就是我們要做的。

Yes.

是的。

So we're going to provide really great consumer happiness at increasing OpEx levels of leverage.

因此，我們將通過提高 OpEx 槓桿水平來提供真正的消費者幸福感。

And second question was similarly around CapEx leverage.

第二個問題同樣與資本支出槓桿有關。

So you put in $2 billion second half to get to that exit rate.

所以你在下半年投入了 20 億美元來達到這個退出率。

One, is that affected by the timing of Elon's production ramp?

第一，這是否受到 Elon 生產斜坡時間的影響？

And then two, given the ramp from 5,000 to 10,000 in 2018, what's your preliminary view of CapEx for 2018?

然後是兩個，鑑於 2018 年從 5,000 人增加到 10,000 人，您對 2018 年資本支出的初步看法是什麼？

So I want to put a pin on 2018.

所以我想在 2018 年打個針。

We'll talk about that when we get to that time.

我們到了那個時候再談。

But in 2017, our CapEx expense is a continuum.

但在 2017 年，我們的資本支出支出是連續的。

There are no -- there are long lead items of different kinds like the Gigafactory.

沒有——有不同種類的長鉛項目，比如 Gigafactory。

And for the Model 3 and the equipment we are buying, our CapEx spend is at historical highs.

對於 Model 3 和我們正在購買的設備，我們的資本支出處於歷史高位。

We're spending $100 million a week.

我們每週花費 1 億美元。

So a week or 2 here or there is a couple of hundred million.

因此，這里或那裡的一兩個星期有幾億。

So what we are spending now is the completion of all of our Model 3 equipment and tooling as our -- that gets signed off and it's taking us to 5,000 and beyond.

因此，我們現在花費的是完成我們所有的 Model 3 設備和工具作為我們的 - 得到簽署，它將把我們帶到 5,000 甚至更多。

So I can't necessarily break it out for you but it just allows us to hit our operating plan that we have at a high level.

因此，我不一定能為您分解它，但它只是讓我們能夠實現我們在高水平上的運營計劃。

I want to do a quick time check here.

我想在這裡快速檢查一下。

So some of us have some other things scheduled in 20 minutes.

所以我們中的一些人在 20 分鐘內安排了其他一些事情。

So we've gotten some good, thorough answers here.

所以我們在這裡得到了一些很好的、徹底的答案。

So we'll probably take a few more questions and then wrap it up.

所以我們可能會再問幾個問題，然後總結一下。

Yes, a few more questions and like yes.

是的，還有幾個問題，就像是的。

And then wrap it up, yes.

然後把它包起來，是的。

Our next question is from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer。

Can you talk a little bit about the conversion rate of customers coming into stores and actually ordering cars?

你能談談進入商店並實際訂購汽車的顧客的轉化率嗎？

And then similar question on what's happening with solar and energy storage in terms of how many customer impressions you've got and the conversion rate into actual sales?

然後類似的問題是關於太陽能和儲能在您獲得多少客戶印像以及轉化為實際銷售額方面發生了什麼？

The conversion rates have continued to improve.

轉化率不斷提高。

Quarter-over-quarter and month-after-month, our conversion rates get stronger.

季度環比和月環比，我們的轉化率變得更強。

And we don't, obviously, publicize specifics on those but they're improving with every week and every month.

顯然，我們不會公佈這些細節，但它們每周和每月都在改進。

On the solar side, one of the interesting things that we're seeing is we put a solar display in -- an energy display into our stores in North America.

在太陽能方面，我們看到的一件有趣的事情是我們在北美的商店中放置了太陽能顯示器——能源顯示器。

And we've got energy experts that are on staff, and what we're finding is it's a really natural transition in conversation from somebody is buying a car and talking about where they're going to charge the car to then where their energy comes from.

我們有能源專家在工作，我們發現這是一個非常自然的對話轉變，從某人購買汽車並談論他們將在哪裡給汽車充電，然後他們的能源來自哪裡從。

Yes, totally.

是的，完全。

It's just -- I mean, we talked about the importance of integrating energy, production, storage and electric vehicle transport, and what we said is coming true.

只是——我的意思是，我們談到了整合能源、生產、存儲和電動汽車運輸的重要性，我們所說的正在成為現實。

It's really working well together.

它真的很好地協同工作。

And we're actually able to leverage our existing stores to generate even more sales per square foot.

而且我們實際上能夠利用我們現有的商店來創造更多的每平方英尺銷售額。

I'm not sure what our -- I think our sales per square foot are so high, it's...

我不確定我們的 - 我認為我們每平方英尺的銷售額如此之高，這是......

Our sales per square foot are so high, it actually moves the total (inaudible).

我們每平方英尺的銷售額如此之高，它實際上改變了總銷售額（聽不清）。

You need a telescope to see who's in second place.

你需要一個望遠鏡才能看到誰在第二位。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Yes, and it actually moves the overall...

是的，它實際上移動了整體......

It's like stupidly high.

這就像愚蠢的高。

Square footage -- sales per square foot numbers for some of the larger more (inaudible).

平方英尺——一些更大的每平方英尺的銷售額（聽不清）。

We've really [stepped] with more stores.

我們真的 [步入] 了更多的商店。

I mean, like there's no point in (inaudible) all 3, because there's like people just -- that's no point there.

我的意思是，就像（聽不清）所有 3 個都沒有意義，因為就像人們只是 - 那沒有意義。

But (inaudible) like eventually.

但是（聽不清）最終喜歡。

But the -- and I think like the new integrated app with -- where you can see the status of your car, your Powerwall and your solar, and see at any given time of the day, how much energy is coming from the sun, how much is coming from the Powerwall, what your house is consuming.

但是 - 我認為就像新的集成應用程序一樣 - 您可以在其中查看汽車、Powerwall 和太陽能的狀態，並查看一天中的任何特定時間，有多少能量來自太陽，有多少來自 Powerwall，你的房子正在消耗什麼。

You can also -- it tells you when the Powerwall saved you from a utility interruption.

您還可以 - 它會告訴您 Powerwall 何時將您從實用程序中斷中解救出來。

A lot of people don't realize that like there are many small utility interruptions in a given month, and that's why your -- you see the blinking 12 on your microwave oven or whatever, kids maybe, or your computer suddenly went dark and -- or you can even get data corruption and that kind of thing.

很多人沒有意識到，就像在給定的一個月裡有很多小的公用事業中斷一樣，這就是為什麼你——你看到你的微波爐或其他什麼東西上閃爍的 12，也許是孩子，或者你的電腦突然變黑了—— - 或者你甚至可以得到數據損壞之類的東西。

Or your food went bad mysteriously.

或者你的食物神秘地變質了。

The Powerwall saves you from all of that.

Powerwall 將您從這一切中拯救出來。

And I think particularly important in cases where there's like a natural disaster, which could be floods, hurricanes, ice storms, earthquakes, fires, anything that disrupts the utility system.

我認為在發生自然災害的情況下尤其重要，這可能是洪水、颶風、冰暴、地震、火災，以及任何破壞公用事業系統的事情。

But having uninterruptible power supply in the form of Powerwall gives you security in those situations.

但是以 Powerwall 的形式擁有不間斷電源可以在這些情況下為您提供安全保障。

And it's kind of like insurance.

這有點像保險。

Like you only really want it when you really want it.

就像你只有在你真正想要它的時候才真正想要它。

And I think people are going to -- a lot of that, "I just saw the app for the first time today.

而且我認為人們會 - 很多，“我今天第一次看到這個應用程序。

I'm using it myself" and it's like wow, this is great.

我自己在使用它”，就像哇，這太棒了。

Our next question comes from Martin Viecha with Redburn.

我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Martin Viecha。

I have just 2 very quick questions.

我只有 2 個非常快速的問題。

The first one is on the battery production for S and X. Is there any plan to move it to the Gigafactory?

第一個是為 S 和 X 生產電池。有沒有計劃將其轉移到 Gigafactory？

For pack production?

用於包裝生產？

Right.

正確的。

(inaudible) production.

（聽不清）生產。

We do not -- in the short term, we will not be moving it.

我們不會——在短期內，我們不會移動它。

Depending -- so sometime next year, we may move it sometime next year in order to make space for additional production volume of Model 3. That's one of the things under consideration.

取決於 - 所以明年某個時候，我們可能會在明年某個時候移動它，以便為 Model 3 的額外產量騰出空間。這是正在考慮的事情之一。

But in the short term, we're keeping it here in Fremont.

但在短期內，我們將把它留在弗里蒙特。

But it is going to be tricky to squeeze in all of the space for increased Model 3 production, particularly if that run rate goes above 10,000 units a week, then we're going to have to move more stuff out.

但是要擠入所有空間以增加 Model 3 的產量是很棘手的，特別是如果每週的運行速度超過 10,000 輛，那麼我們將不得不搬出更多的東西。

Yes, and it may just be worth a reminder also that the cells for S and X are actually still 18650, and those are coming from a different production pathway in Japan.

是的，值得提醒的是，S 和 X 的電池實際上仍然是 18650，它們來自日本的不同生產途徑。

Very similar technology.

非常相似的技術。

Almost the same technology.

幾乎相同的技術。

Yes, but it's similar to the -- yes, the internals are essentially the same for both cars.

是的，但它類似於 - 是的，兩輛車的內部結構基本相同。

Yes, but it's -- yes, but different supply chain, different set of geography.

是的，但它是 - 是的，但不同的供應鏈，不同的地理環境。

And then the follow-up question is on the Model Y. I think you just mentioned an hour ago that it's going to be made probably on the same platform or very similar platform as a Model 3.

然後是關於 Model Y 的後續問題。我想你在一小時前剛剛提到它可能會在與 Model 3 相同的平台或非常相似的平台上製造。

Yes, we're really going to have to...

是的，我們真的必須...

Is it still going to have...

難道還要...

We're going to aim for maximum carryover.

我們的目標是實現最大的結轉。

Okay.

好的。

I mean, just one thing to clarify.

我的意思是，只有一件事要澄清。

Is it still going to be the 100 meters of cables which you'd touched upon last time or actually, that's going to be the next generation of vehicles?

它仍然是你上次觸及的 100 米長的電纜，還是實際上，這將是下一代車輛？

No, that's one of the things that we would include.

不，這是我們要包括的內容之一。

We would aim to switch out the wiring models for (inaudible) the wiring models for a redundant flex circuit that's more in the order of 100 meters or so.

我們的目標是為大約 100 米左右的冗餘柔性電路切換佈線模型（聽不清）。

But -- and then we'd -- obviously, we'd aim to do that both for the Y, if it's called the Y, and the 3 as well.

但是 - 然後我們會 - 顯然，我們的目標是為 Y（如果它被稱為 Y）和 3 都這樣做。

Our next question is from Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Jaffray。

Just one from me.

就我一個。

I was wondering the degree to which Tesla would eventually consider maybe charging more for, I guess, what you would call nontraditional product offerings.

我想知道特斯拉最終會在多大程度上考慮可能對你所說的非傳統產品收取更多費用。

Things like software, over-the-air updates, but also shared mobility, Supercharging, aftermarket.

諸如軟件、無線更新之類的東西，還有共享移動性、增壓、售後市場。

I know in the past you've talked about running a lot of those businesses just to break even.

我知道您過去曾談到經營很多此類業務只是為了收支平衡。

But I guess, maybe just wondering the circumstances under which you would consider trying to earn a margin on some of these businesses versus situations where you'd prefer to just give them away?

但我想，也許只是想知道您會考慮在哪些情況下嘗試從其中一些業務中賺取利潤，而不是您寧願放棄它們的情況？

Well, I think the -- we have a major element of that which is the Autopilot.

好吧，我認為——我們有一個主要元素，那就是自動駕駛儀。

That's a software -- that's basically uploading software to the car.

那是一個軟件——基本上就是將軟件上傳到汽車上。

It could -- every car made since October last year is capable of autonomy, we believe.

它可以——我們相信，自去年 10 月以來生產的每輛汽車都能夠實現自動駕駛。

And so it's really just a question of uploading the software for autonomy.

因此，這實際上只是上傳軟件以實現自治的問題。

There will be some other things, I think in the future.

我認為將來還會有一些其他的事情。

But our focus is on the Model 3 ramp and we don't want to get too distracted.

但我們的重點是 Model 3 坡道，我們不想分心。

Okay, maybe one more question.

好吧，也許還有一個問題。

Our final question comes from Rob Cihra from Guggenheim Partners.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Rob Cihra。

Just going back to Autopilot development.

回到 Autopilot 開發。

Obviously, not talking personal details or anything, but you've had some personnel changes in the quarter.

顯然，不是在談論個人細節或任何事情，但你在本季度進行了一些人事變動。

And just wondering if those reflected any kind of change of strategy or scope, or if it was just kind of a personal thing?

只是想知道這些是否反映了戰略或範圍的任何變化，還是只是個人的事情？

And I guess just related, are you still hoping to be able to do the autonomous drive, LA to New York, by the end of this year?

我想只是相關的，你是否仍然希望能夠在今年年底前實現自動駕駛，從洛杉磯到紐約？

Yes, I mean I won't comment too much on like individual personnel changes.

是的，我的意思是我不會對個別人事變動發表過多評論。

Look, Tesla's a 33,000-person company.

看，特斯拉是一家擁有 33,000 名員工的公司。

If you actually look at our executive tenure at Tesla, it's extremely good, it's above average.

如果你真的看一下我們在特斯拉的高管任期，那非常好，高於平均水平。

I think we're at least maybe a year or 2 above average in terms of the executive tenure here.

我認為，就這裡的高管任期而言，我們至少比平均水平高出一兩年。

Every now and again, something doesn't work out for one reason or another.

時不時地，由於某種原因，某些事情無法解決。

In the case of Autopilot, it's very centrally about vision and image recognition, neural nets, effectively narrow AI and so that's the focus from a recruiting standpoint.

就 Autopilot 而言，它非常關注視覺和圖像識別、神經網絡、有效地縮小人工智能，因此從招聘的角度來看，這是重點。

And I think we've really got -- I think we've got the best team in the world by a long shot on that front and we are growing it rapidly with world-class talent.

而且我認為我們真的擁有——我認為我們在這方面擁有世界上最好的球隊，而且我們正在迅速發展，擁有世界級的人才。

And then the coast-coast drive, autonomous drive by the end of the year, I believe we are still on track for that.

然後是今年年底的沿海駕駛，自動駕駛，我相信我們仍在朝著這個方向發展。

It is certainly possible that I may have egg on my face on that front.

我肯定有可能在那個前面的臉上有雞蛋。

But if it is not at the end of the year, it'll be very close.

但如果不是在年底，那將非常接近。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Thank you for, Sharie, for your help, and wish everybody a great day.

謝謝你，Sharie，你的幫助，祝大家有個美好的一天。

Bye-bye.

再見。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

你們都可以斷開連接，度過美好的一天。