特斯拉 (TSLA) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Q3 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2018 年第三季度財務業績和問答網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。

Mr. Viecha, you may begin.

Viecha 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝雪莉，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2018 Q&A Webcast.

歡迎收聽特斯拉 2018 年第三季度問答網絡直播。

I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Deepak Ahuja and a number of other executives.

今天加入我的有 Elon Musk、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja 和其他一些高管。

Our Q3 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m.

我們在下午 1:00 左右公佈了第三季度業績。

Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

太平洋時間在我們發佈在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上的更新信中。

During our call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

但在我們進入問答環節之前，埃隆有一些開場白。

Elon?

埃隆?

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

So I'll make some opening remarks, and then we're going to talk about vehicle safety, Autopilot and factory safety.

所以我會做一些開場白，然後我們將討論車輛安全、自動駕駛儀和工廠安全。

And we have a number of people from Tesla here to elaborate on that.

我們有很多來自特斯拉的人來詳細說明這一點。

So I think there's just a lot going on that you would find interesting.

所以我認為你會發現很多有趣的事情。

But I want to start by thanking all of our customers, employees and shareholders.

但我想首先感謝我們所有的客戶、員工和股東。

This was an incredibly historic quarter for Tesla.

對於特斯拉來說，這是一個令人難以置信的歷史性季度。

Model 3 production stabilized.

Model 3 生產穩定。

We delivered a total of 84,000 vehicles globally, which is more than 80% of vehicles that we delivered in all of 2017.

我們在全球共交付了 84,000 輛汽車，占我們 2017 年全年交付汽車的 80% 以上。

In fact, we delivered more cars in this quarter than we did in all of 2016 in a single quarter.

事實上，我們在本季度交付的汽車數量超過了 2016 年全年單季度的交付量。

Model 3 became the best-selling car in the U.S. in terms of revenue and the third best-selling car in terms of volume.

就收入而言，Model 3 成為美國最暢銷的汽車，就銷量而言，成為第三暢銷的汽車。

We saw higher revenues and significantly better profitability in our energy business.

我們在能源業務中看到了更高的收入和顯著更好的盈利能力。

I mean, I think with solar, it may have been the best quarter ever for solar.

我的意思是，我認為對於太陽能來說，這可能是太陽能有史以來最好的季度。

We achieved GAAP net income of over $300 million, increased cash and equivalents by $731 million and achieved a greater than 20% gross margin for Model 3.

我們實現了 GAAP 淨收入超過 3 億美元，現金和等價物增加了 7.31 億美元，Model 3 的毛利率超過 20%。

And moreover, we expect to again have positive net income and cash flow in Q4.

此外，我們預計第四季度將再次獲得正的淨收入和現金流。

And I believe our aspiration is something that will be for all quarters going forward.

而且我相信我們的願望將適用於所有方面。

I think we can actually be positive cash flow and profitable for all quarters going forward, leaving aside the quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment but -- for example, in Q1 next year.

我認為我們實際上可以在未來的所有季度實現正現金流和盈利，撇開我們可能需要進行大量還款的季度——例如，明年第一季度。

But I think even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter.

但我認為即使在第一季度，我認為到季度末我們的現金流量也可以大致持平。

This quarter was made possible by the incredible execution of our employees across the board, from sales, production, delivery, service, energy, engineering, finance and all of our G&A teams.

本季度的實現得益於我們員工在銷售、生產、交付、服務、能源、工程、財務和我們所有的 G&A 團隊中的出色執行力。

Really every part of the business executed incredibly well.

確實，業務的每個部分都執行得非常好。

I want to thank everyone again for their incredibly hard work.

我要再次感謝大家的辛勤工作。

I especially want to thank customers who helped -- it's like I've never even heard of this -- maybe this has happened before, but I've never heard of a case where a company's customers actually cared about the future of the company so much that they volunteered their time to help the company succeed.

我特別要感謝幫助過的客戶——就像我從來沒有聽說過這件事一樣——也許這曾經發生過，但我從未聽說過一個公司的客戶真正關心公司未來的案例，所以他們自願花時間幫助公司取得成功。

I think that's amazing.

我認為這太棒了。

Just -- you don't see that anywhere.

只是——你在任何地方都看不到。

So yes, really, chokes me up, actually.

所以，是的，真的，讓我窒息，事實上。

This quarter, we started rolling out Version 9 of our software, which is the biggest software upgrade in 3 years.

本季度，我們開始推出第 9 版軟件，這是 3 年來最大的軟件升級。

And Model 3 received a 5-star safety rating in every category and subcategory.

Model 3 在每個類別和子類別中都獲得了 5 星安全評級。

I think that's the lowest probability of injury of any car that the U.S. government's ever tested.

我認為這是美國政府測試過的所有汽車中受傷概率最低的。

Looking ahead, we expect to produce and sell even more Model 3s in Q4 and expect that trend to continue into Q1.

展望未來，我們預計第四季度將生產和銷售更多 Model 3，並預計這一趨勢將持續到第一季度。

And we're excited to bring Model 3 to Europe and China early next year given that the market for midsized premium sedans in those regions is even larger than in North America.

鑑於這些地區的中型高檔轎車市場甚至比北美更大，我們很高興明年初將 Model 3 帶到歐洲和中國。

I said before that we must prove that Tesla can be sustainably profitable.

我之前說過，我們必須證明特斯拉可以持續盈利。

This quarter was an important step towards that, and I'm incredibly excited about what lies ahead.

本季度是朝著這一目標邁出的重要一步，我對未來的發展感到非常興奮。

So this is -- yes, just so, so proud of the Tesla team and our customers.

所以這是——是的，就是這樣，為特斯拉團隊和我們的客戶感到驕傲。

Really appreciate the support of our long-term shareholders.

非常感謝我們長期股東的支持。

And yes, I just want to say on behalf of the Tesla team, we're just super appreciative of your support through what has actually been a very difficult time.

是的，我只想代表特斯拉團隊說，我們非常感謝您在這實際上非常困難的時期的支持。

All right.

好的。

Now let's move to -- let's start off with vehicle safety.

現在讓我們開始——讓我們從車輛安全開始。

Madan, who's our lead vehicle safety engineer, been with the company for a long time.

Madan 是我們的首席車輛安全工程師，在公司工作了很長時間。

Madan, how many years has it been that we've been working together?

馬丹，我們合作了多少年了？

10 years.

10年。

Eight?

八？

10 years.

10年。

10 years.

10年。

Wow, so yes, I've been working with Madan for 10 years.

哇，是的，我已經與 Madan 合作了 10 年。

And we've had so many conversations on vehicle safety.

我們已經就車輛安全進行了很多對話。

Wow.

哇。

And you know what, the -- we're really going to try to go the extra mile with vehicle safety, not just -- in fact, there's a series of government-mandated tests, but what some companies do is they game the system.

你知道嗎，我們真的會在車輛安全方面加倍努力，而不僅僅是——事實上，有一系列政府規定的測試，但一些公司所做的是他們玩弄系統.

So they know where the side pole impact is going to be.

所以他們知道側桿撞擊的位置。

They strengthen it right in that position.

他們在那個位置上加強了它。

At Tesla, we're like, "Okay, what is the weakest point in the car?

在特斯拉，我們會說，“好吧，汽車最薄弱的地方是什麼？

Let us test it at that position." So the actual safety is not fully captured in the tests because we anti-game the system.

讓我們在那個位置進行測試。”因此，實際的安全性並沒有完全體現在測試中，因為我們反對系統。

Madan, if you...

馬丹，如果你...

Thank you, Elon.

謝謝你，埃隆。

Just to give you a very quick background about myself.

只是為了給你一個關於我自己的快速背景。

So like I said, joined Tesla 10 years.

所以就像我說的，加入特斯拉 10 年。

I'm extremely very happy to mention I'm working with an extraordinary set of very passionate and very hard-working individuals, and that essentially shows in our product.

我非常高興地提到我正在與一群非常熱情和非常努力工作的人一起工作，這基本上體現在我們的產品中。

So that's very important for us.

所以這對我們來說非常重要。

And also important is our principal mission statement on safety because what we want to do is safety has been -- is probably the important factor for our vehicle.

同樣重要的是我們關於安全的主要使命宣言，因為我們想要做的是安全一直 - 可能是我們車輛的重要因素。

It's not just for electrical vehicle.

它不僅適用於電動汽車。

Any vehicle, period.

任何車輛，期間。

And that fundamentally differentiates us, so -- which essentially helps us to keep adding new features and new safety technology.

這從根本上使我們與眾不同，因此 - 這從根本上幫助我們不斷添加新功能和新的安全技術。

And that's very important and that shows in Model 3. Just the things that we have.

這非常重要，這在模型 3 中得到了體現。只是我們擁有的東西。

Also the fact that we have electric vehicle, the design and architecture uses a fundamental benefit over traditional vehicles.

此外，我們擁有電動汽車這一事實，其設計和架構比傳統汽車具有根本優勢。

And that takes care of, for example, whether you have a block of engine in the front where we can work with using pretty much open architecture in the front.

例如，這會處理您是否在前面有一個引擎塊，我們可以在前面使用非常開放的架構進行工作。

And the whole fact that you have all the electrical and high voltage and motors and all of that almost below the central gravity of the vehicle, it's the lowest probability of reduced or lower risk, and that significantly benefits.

事實上，你擁有所有的電力、高壓和電機，所有這些幾乎都低於車輛的中心重心，這是降低或降低風險的最低概率，這會帶來顯著的好處。

Yes.

是的。

I think architecturally, we have Newton on our side.

我認為在架構上，我們有牛頓站在我們這邊。

And having Isaac Newton on your side is definitely the way to go.

讓艾薩克牛頓站在你身邊絕對是正確的選擇。

Right, exactly.

沒錯，正是。

So in the latest series of tests, I would like to specifically talk about Model 3. NHTSA did a series of tests, actually 4 tests, for 1 frontal, 2 side and 1 rollover test.

所以在最近的一系列測試中，我想專門談談Model 3。NHTSA做了一系列測試，實際上是4個測試，1個正面，2個側面和1個側翻測試。

And if you look at -- we've been calculating how can we distinguish within the 5 star.

如果你看一下 - 我們一直在計算我們如何區分 5 星。

There are so many vehicles that already get 5 star.

有很多車輛已經獲得 5 星。

And if you look at within the 5 star...

如果你在 5 星範圍內看...

That is not all the same.

這並不完全相同。

Not all the same.

不都是一樣的。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

So if you look at there, the tricks we came up with, which is a part of U.S. NCAP rating itself, as a lowest probability of injury, Model 3 has the lowest.

所以如果你看那裡，我們想出的技巧，這是美國 NCAP 評級本身的一部分，作為最低的受傷概率，Model 3 最低。

And just to give you a context, there are a total of 900-plus vehicles since 2011 which have been rated.

只是為了給你一個背景，自 2011 年以來共有 900 多輛汽車被評級。

So the fact that Model 3 is the best among all the 943 to be exact.

因此，確切地說，Model 3 是所有 943 中最好的。

So that speaks to value.

所以這說明了價值。

And I'm very happy to say that Model 3 has achieved -- we are not stopping right now.

我很高興地說 Model 3 已經取得了成就——我們現在不會停下來。

What we would like to do next is how we can make use of the active safety and Autopilot features and make it even more improvement so the next area that we're focusing on, how to integrate active and passive safety.

我們接下來想做的是如何利用主動安全和自動駕駛功能並對其進行進一步改進，因此我們關注的下一個領域是如何整合主動和被動安全。

That's our next area of challenge, which we will improve for sure.

這是我們的下一個挑戰領域，我們肯定會改進。

Yes.

是的。

And so worth noting that the safety extends to not just people in car but also pedestrians.

值得注意的是，安全不僅延伸到車內的人，還延伸到行人。

Correct.

正確的。

Yes.

是的。

So not having a big engine block in the front of the car is really helpful so -- because if you -- if the car were to hit a pedestrian, we'll get to active safety next because the best thing is actually not just to hit car or a pedestrian.

所以在汽車前部沒有一個大的發動機缸體真的很有幫助 - 因為如果你 - 如果汽車撞到行人，接下來我們將進入主動安全，因為最好的事情實際上不僅僅是撞車或行人。

The fact that the hood can condense so far in is really helpful because it ends up being like a sort of -- sort of like a trampoline or like -- it has -- you just -- you don't have a rock underneath this.

引擎蓋到目前為止可以凝結的事實真的很有幫助，因為它最終就像是一種 - 有點像蹦床或類似 - 它有 - 你只是 - 你沒有在它下面有一塊石頭.

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

So it's helpful for pedestrian safety and for the safety of people in the car.

因此，它有助於行人安全和車內人員的安全。

And then even if you have like a head-on collision with another car, the extended sort of crumple zone of a Tesla Model S, X or 3 is helpful to the people in the Tesla and the people in the other car.

然後，即使您與另一輛車發生正面碰撞，特斯拉 Model S、X 或 3 的擴展碰撞區對特斯拉車上的人和另一輛車上的人都有幫助。

So it's not just for people in the car.

因此，這不僅適用於車內的人。

I'd like to add one item, which is essentially how we look at the real-world safety, which has always been an important element for Elon.

我想添加一個項目，這本質上是我們如何看待現實世界的安全，這一直是 Elon 的一個重要因素。

So if you look at the -- our blog post, we showed how we handled the central fall impact in the front hood.

因此，如果您查看我們的博客文章，我們展示了我們如何處理前引擎蓋的中央墜落影響。

By the way, that's not part of NCAP rating.

順便說一句，這不是 NCAP 評級的一部分。

Just to show how we go over and above the NCAP rating to make sure it's real world safety.

只是為了展示我們如何超越 NCAP 評級以確保它在現實世界中的安全性。

That's very important for us.

這對我們來說非常重要。

Exactly.

確切地。

That's what I mean by like anti-game the system, like what is the worst way that the car could be hit, not just sort of strength and where we know the test will happen and that kind of thing.

這就是我所說的反遊戲系統的意思，比如汽車可能被擊中的最糟糕的方式，而不僅僅是某種力量，我們知道測試將在哪裡發生等等。

So obviously, we're all in these cars, our friends are in these cars, family is in the car, so we care a great deal about safety.

所以很明顯，我們都在這些車裡，我們的朋友在這些車裡，家人也在車裡，所以我們非常關心安全。

A lot of people think safety is boring, but not Tesla.

很多人認為安全很無聊，但特斯拉不是。

So thanks, Madan.

所以謝謝，馬丹。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you for your decade of hard work and the rest of Tesla safety team.

感謝您十年來的辛勤工作以及特斯拉安全團隊的其他成員。

And with that, let's move on to Autopilot and yes, just give an update on sort of Autopilot software, AI and hardware.

有了這個，讓我們繼續討論 Autopilot，是的，只需提供有關 Autopilot 軟件、人工智能和硬件的更新。

Yes.

是的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

This is Stuart Bowers.

這是斯圖爾特鮑爾斯。

We will soon begin to roll out the team's most advanced Autopilot feature ever, Navigate on Autopilot.

我們將很快開始推出團隊有史以來最先進的 Autopilot 功能，即 Navigate on Autopilot。

In our last release, we launched a new set of neural networks that combined together, provide a view of everything happening around the car.

在我們的上一個版本中，我們推出了一組新的神經網絡，它們結合在一起，提供了汽車周圍發生的一切的視圖。

With Navigate on Autopilot, we'll use information to understand exactly where the car is on the highway system and to automatically change lanes, handle forks and take high-curvature exits to follow a nav route.

借助 Navigate on Autopilot，我們將使用信息來準確了解汽車在高速公路系統上的位置，並自動改變車道、處理分叉和採取高曲率出口以遵循導航路線。

Initially, it will require drivers to confirm lane changes using the turn signal before the car moves into an adjacent lane.

最初，它將要求駕駛員在汽車進入相鄰車道之前使用轉向信號確認車道變換。

Future versions will allow customers to waive the confirmation requirement if they choose to.

如果客戶願意，未來的版本將允許客戶放棄確認要求。

One area that I'm personally really excited to build on with this improvement is active safety.

我個人非常高興能在這一改進的基礎上發展的一個領域是主動安全。

With the advancement in neural networks covering 360 degrees of view around our car, we can provide a level of constant vigilance that humans just can't.

隨著覆蓋我們汽車周圍 360 度視角的神經網絡的進步，我們可以提供人類無法提供的持續警覺水平。

Ultimately, this should allow us to warn, even intervene, for an enormous percentage of modern accidents and to ship these improvements as software upgrades to our existing customers.

最終，這應該使我們能夠對大部分現代事故發出警告，甚至進行干預，並將這些改進作為軟件升級提供給我們現有的客戶。

And we have a lot of -- we see this all the time in the data where the car will do an automatic braking event and save a pedestrian or another car from impact.

我們有很多——我們一直在數據中看到這一點，汽車將執行自動制動事件並保護行人或另一輛車免受撞擊。

This happens all the time.

這事兒常常發生。

All the time.

每時每刻。

Yes.

是的。

All the time.

每時每刻。

Essentially every day.

基本上每天都有。

So great [preview].

太棒了[預覽]。

Yes.

是的。

The team's done incredible work here.

團隊在這裡完成了令人難以置信的工作。

And by bringing more of the cameras around the car, we can detect things as they come toward us, not just directly in front of us.

通過在汽車周圍安裝更多攝像頭，我們可以在物體向我們靠近時檢測它們，而不僅僅是直接在我們面前。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, this is Pete Bannon.

嗨，我是皮特班農。

The Hardware 3 design is continuing to move along.

Hardware 3 的設計仍在繼續發展。

Over the last quarter, we've completed qualification of the silicon, qualification of the board.

在上個季度，我們已經完成了矽片的鑑定和電路板的鑑定。

We started the manufacturing line and qualification of the manufacturing line.

我們啟動了生產線和生產線的鑑定。

We've been validating the provisioning close in the factory.

我們一直在工廠驗證供應關閉。

We've built test versions of Model S, X and 3 in the factory to validate all the fit and finish all the parts and all the provisioning close.

我們已經在工廠中構建了 Model S、X 和 3 的測試版本，以驗證所有配合併完成所有零件和所有配置關閉。

So we still have a lot of work to do, and the team's doing a great job.

所以我們還有很多工作要做，團隊做得很好。

And we're still on track to have it ready to go by the end of Q1.

我們仍有望在第一季度末準備好它。

Great.

偉大的。

And that will be roughly 1,000% increase in thrust and capability compared to the current hardware.

與當前的硬件相比，這將在推力和能力方面增加大約 1,000%。

And so it's obviously a giant improvement.

所以這顯然是一個巨大的進步。

Despite being about the -- it costs about the same, cost volume, and product consumption are approximately the same as the current hardware.

儘管它的成本大致相同，但成本量和產品消耗與當前硬件大致相同。

But it's a tenfold improvements in frames per second.

但每秒幀數提高了十倍。

Yes.

是的。

And improved redundancy as well.

並改進了冗餘。

But very importantly, very important to emphasize is that the only -- the thing that needs to change between the cars produced today and the cars that are produced in the second quarter of next year is swapping out the Autopilot computer.

但非常重要的是，需要強調的是，在今天生產的汽車和明年第二季度生產的汽車之間唯一需要改變的是更換 Autopilot 計算機。

And this is a simple change that takes place in half an hour in service to upgrade the computer.

這是一個簡單的更改，在服務升級計算機的半小時內發生。

And anyone will be able to upgrade their computer to full Self-Driving capability -- upgrade their car to full Self-Driving capability with a simple service visit.

任何人都可以將他們的計算機升級到完全的自動駕駛功能——通過簡單的服務訪問將他們的汽車升級到完全的自動駕駛功能。

So we expect all cars with the Hardware 2 sensor suite, basically anything made in the last roughly 2 years will be upgradable to full Self-Driving.

因此，我們預計所有配備硬件 2 傳感器套件的汽車，基本上是在過去大約 2 年內製造的任何產品都可以升級為完全自動駕駛。

Yes.

是的。

In fact, a lot of the cars we're using for testing today have, in fact, been upgraded from Hardware 2.

事實上，我們今天用於測試的許多汽車實際上都是從硬件 2 升級而來的。

Right.

正確的。

So it's very important to emphasize like people shouldn't -- it's like -- it seems like people want to wait until that comes out, but there's no need to wait until that comes out because it's just a very simple plug-and-play change to get the full Self-Driving.

所以強調人們不應該這樣強調是非常重要的 - 就像 - 人們似乎想等到它出來，但沒有必要等到它出來，因為它只是一個非常簡單的即插即用更改以獲得完整的自動駕駛。

And anyone who's paid for the full Self-Driving option will just get it done for free.

任何為完整的自動駕駛選項付費的人都可以免費完成。

And anyone who still wants to order full Self-Driving at this point, it's just an off-menu item.

在這一點上仍然想訂購完整自動駕駛的任何人，這只是一個菜單外項目。

You can still order it, but we took it off the order -- menu just because there are -- it was really creating a lot of friction in the sales process and people didn't understand the difference between Enhanced Autopilot and full Self-Driving.

您仍然可以訂購，但我們將其從訂單中刪除了——菜單只是因為有——這確實在銷售過程中造成了很多摩擦，人們不了解增強型自動駕駛儀和完全自動駕駛之間的區別.

So just to simplify the order process, we took that off.

因此，為了簡化訂購流程，我們取消了它。

But anyone who asks for it can certainly get it.

但任何要求它的人都可以得到它。

And it really ends up being a discount on future capability.

它實際上最終成為未來能力的折扣。

But to be clear, there's definitely no need to wait until Q2 to order a car.

但要明確的是，絕對沒有必要等到第二季度才能訂購汽車。

It's -- we want to make it just a completely seamless process.

它是——我們想讓它成為一個完全無縫的過程。

So there's no advantage to ordering now versus Q2.

因此，與第二季度相比，現在訂購沒有任何優勢。

Andrej, do you want to...

安德烈，你想...

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hi, everyone.

大家好。

I'm Andrej Karpathy, I'm the Director of AI here at Tesla.

我是 Andrej Karpathy，是特斯拉的 AI 總監。

And my team trains all the neural networks that analyze the images streaming in from the all the cameras for the Autopilot.

我的團隊訓練了所有神經網絡，這些神經網絡分析從自動駕駛儀的所有攝像頭流入的圖像。

For example, these neural networks identify cars, lane lines, traffic signs and so on.

例如，這些神經網絡可以識別汽車、車道線、交通標誌等。

The team is incredibly excited about the upcoming upgrade for the Autopilot computer, which Pete briefly talked about.

團隊對即將到來的 Autopilot 計算機升級感到非常興奮，Pete 簡要談到了這一點。

This upgrade allows us to not just run the current neural networks faster.

這次升級使我們不僅能夠更快地運行當前的神經網絡。

But more importantly, it will allow us to deploy much larger, computationally more expensive networks to the fleet.

但更重要的是，它將允許我們為車隊部署更大、計算成本更高的網絡。

The reason this is important is that it is a common finding in the industry, and that we see this as well, is that as you make networks bigger by adding more neurons, the accuracy of all their predictions increases with the added capacity.

這很重要的原因是它是業界的一個普遍發現，我們也看到了這一點，因為當你通過添加更多神經元來使網絡變得更大時，它們所有預測的準確性會隨著容量的增加而增加。

So in other words, we are currently at a place where we've trained large neural networks that work very well but we are not able to deploy them to the fleet due to computational constraints.

換句話說，我們目前在一個地方，我們已經訓練了運行良好的大型神經網絡，但由於計算限制，我們無法將它們部署到艦隊中。

So all of this will change with the next iteration of the hardware, and it's a massive step improvement in the compute capability.

因此，所有這一切都將隨著硬件的下一次迭代而改變，這是計算能力的巨大進步。

And the team is incredibly excited to get these networks out there.

團隊非常高興能將這些網絡推廣出去。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And I've said this before, but I think -- let's talk about how we look at the longer-term future.

我之前已經說過了，但我想——讓我們談談我們如何看待更長期的未來。

We absolutely see the future as kind of -- as sort of shared electric autonomy so that you'll be able to do ride-hailing or share your car in any way in a sort of long-term model that's some combination of like Uber, Lyft and Airbnb.

我們絕對將未來視為一種共享電動自治系統，這樣您就可以以某種長期模式（例如優步的某種組合）進行叫車或以任何方式共享您的汽車， Lyft 和愛彼迎。

So there'll be Tesla-dedicated cars for ride-hailing, and there'll be -- and any customer will be able to share their car at will, just like you share your house in Airbnb.

所以會有特斯拉專用的汽車用於叫車服務，而且會有——任何客戶都可以隨意分享他們的汽車，就像你在 Airbnb 上分享你的房子一樣。

So it's a combination of those 2 models.

所以它是這兩個模型的組合。

I think it's pretty obvious where things are headed long term.

我認為事情的長期發展方向很明顯。

The advantage that Tesla will have is that we will have millions of cars in the field with full autonomy capability, and no one else will have that.

特斯拉將擁有的優勢是，我們將在該領域擁有數百萬輛具有完全自主能力的汽車，而其他任何人都不具備。

So I think that puts us -- that will end up putting us in the strongest competitive position long term.

所以我認為這讓我們 - 從長遠來看，這最終會讓我們處於最強大的競爭地位。

And then, Laurie, can you finish off with -- let's talk about factory safety.

然後，Laurie，你能不能結束——讓我們談談工廠安全。

And thanks for the hard work of you and your team.

感謝您和您的團隊的辛勤工作。

And I think we've made great strides.

我認為我們已經取得了長足的進步。

And yes, please, please go ahead.

是的，請繼續。

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

We have the safest cars made by the safest people.

我們擁有由最安全的人製造的最安全的汽車。

So it's an exciting time here at Tesla.

因此，在特斯拉，這是一個激動人心的時刻。

All car and manufacturing factories have injuries.

所有汽車和製造工廠都有人受傷。

At Tesla, we have a commitment to 0 injuries.

在特斯拉，我們承諾零傷害。

And our target is actually on good reporting.

我們的目標實際上是良好的報告。

So we have good reporting of injuries, good reporting of near misses, good observations and lots of improvements.

所以我們有很好的傷病報告，很好的未遂事故報告，很好的觀察和很多改進。

So to be the safest company in the world, we have to be committed to that.

因此，要成為世界上最安全的公司，我們必須致力於此。

And everybody here is.

這裡的每個人都是。

So we're actually steadily getting there, and we're not going to stop until we're there.

所以我們實際上正在穩步到達那裡，並且在我們到達那里之前我們不會停下來。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

So one...

所以一個...

Yes.

是的。

So I've been mentioning like -- for example, like we had like some sort of -- for example, like we do get these like quite unfair accusations.

所以我一直在提到 - 例如，就像我們曾經有過類似的 - 例如，我們確實收到了這些非常不公平的指控。

For example, one of them was like we were underreporting injuries.

例如，其中之一就像我們少報了受傷情況。

And it's worth noting that OSHA completed their investigation and concluded that we have not been doing anything of the sort.

值得注意的是，OSHA 完成了他們的調查並得出結論，我們沒有做任何類似的事情。

Correct.

正確的。

Correct.

正確的。

The company here had a 4-month long Cal/OSHA investigation.

這裡的公司進行了為期 4 個月的 Cal/OSHA 調查。

And it basically proves that we are recording properly and doing as we should be.

它基本上證明了我們正在正確記錄並按照我們應該做的事情做。

So it's much different than what you would read about in the press.

所以這與你在媒體上讀到的有很大不同。

Yes, that is true.

是的，這是真的。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

I'm very proud of the team for that.

為此，我為團隊感到非常自豪。

It's a -- yes, one point I think people don't know is I've been here about a year now.

這是一個——是的，我認為人們不知道的一點是我已經在這里大約一年了。

Time flies when you're having so much fun.

當你玩得很開心時，時間過得飛快。

Feels like 5 years.

感覺是5年。

I know.

我知道。

But when I joined, we were already really a fraction -- our injury rate was a fraction of what it had been when Toyota and GM ran the factory in the Numi days.

但是當我加入時，我們已經是一個小部分了——我們的受傷率是豐田和通用在 Numi 時代經營工廠時的一小部分。

So what we're all about is really continuing to make improvements from there.

所以我們真正要做的就是從那裡繼續改進。

And what's also important is not to have serious injuries.

同樣重要的是不要受重傷。

And that's extremely rare here at Tesla.

這在特斯拉極為罕見。

We have really strong focus on prevention and also using mitigating controls so that these types of injuries don't occur.

我們非常注重預防並使用減輕控制措施，以免發生此類傷害。

I mean, most of the injuries that we have are muscular sprains and things like that.

我的意思是，我們所受的大多數傷害都是肌肉扭傷之類的。

Yes.

是的。

Essentially, it's muscle strain and getting scratched.

從本質上講，它是肌肉拉傷和被抓傷。

Exactly.

確切地。

That's the most of the injuries here.

這是這裡受傷最多的地方。

Yes, hand and finger cuts and sprains.

是的，手和手指割傷和扭傷。

So I kind of just want to break down a few things that my team has been working on, along with all the leaders here.

所以我只是想分解一下我的團隊一直在做的一些事情，以及這裡的所有領導者。

First is people and engagement.

首先是人和參與。

So one of the first things is meeting with you, Elon.

所以第一件事就是與你會面，埃隆。

We meet with you on a regular basis.

我們會定期與您會面。

We meet with all the production leaders.

我們會見了所有的生產領導。

So it's full on engagement on improving safety.

因此，它完全致力於提高安全性。

We have built a really strong EHS team, the best and the brightest.

我們已經建立了一支非常強大的 EHS 團隊，是最優秀、最聰明的團隊。

We have -- and our EHS team is actually embedded into the line on the factory because we learn the process and we learn the people.

我們有——而且我們的 EHS 團隊實際上已經嵌入到工廠的生產線中，因為我們了解流程和人員。

You don't know how to improve unless you're out there, on the line, on the process, engaging with the associates, listening and learning from our associates.

你不知道如何改進，除非你在現場，在生產線上，在過程中，與員工互動，傾聽和向我們的員工學習。

So we have really strong engagement, health and safety committees.

所以我們有非常強大的參與、健康和安全委員會。

We do find it, fix it walks.

我們確實找到它，修復它行走。

Our walker -- our leaders are out there walking and also looking for improvements.

我們的步行者——我們的領導者在外面行走，也在尋求改進。

And actually, just this quarter, we had over 15,000 improvements.

實際上，僅在本季度，我們就有超過 15,000 項改進。

I mean, that's like amazing.

我的意思是，這太棒了。

So very, very excited about that.

對此非常非常興奮。

We also look at risk reduction and -- in human performance.

我們還著眼於降低風險和——在人類績效方面。

People are going to make mistakes, so we're going to design in so we fail safely.

人們會犯錯，所以我們要進行設計，這樣我們才能安全地失敗。

We have an early symptom intervention program.

我們有一個早期症狀干預計劃。

This is where we have industrial athletes go out on the line and work with our associates before anything happens.

這是我們讓工業運動員在任何事情發生之前與我們的同事一起工作的地方。

Like if you have a pain, let's work it out.

就像如果你有痛苦，讓我們解決它。

Let's strengthen and really get our employees fit.

讓我們加強並真正讓我們的員工健康。

So we're doing that.

所以我們正在這樣做。

We've also just opened a new and improved health clinic.

我們還剛剛開設了一家經過改進的新健康診所。

So when injuries do occur, we get the absolute best care for our associates.

因此，當確實發生傷害時，我們會為我們的員工得到絕對最好的照顧。

And it's actually overseen by one of California's leading orthopedic surgeons.

它實際上由加利福尼亞領先的整形外科醫生之一監督。

And we did that because most of our injuries, like we said, like 80%, 85%, are those sprains and strains.

我們這樣做是因為我們的大部分傷病，就像我們說的，80%、85% 都是扭傷和拉傷。

So now they get that best care here on site.

所以現在他們在現場得到最好的照顧。

And we have 24/7 care.

我們有 24/7 全天候服務。

It's actually staffed by 3 full-time doctors and nurses.

它實際上由3名全職醫生和護士組成。

And I'm really super happy with the care they're giving, and I think employees are as well.

我對他們給予的照顧感到非常滿意，我認為員工也是如此。

And the third...

而第三...

Yes.

是的。

We're going to expand on that.

我們將對此進行擴展。

So the -- yes, Tesla's sort of health clinic both at Fremont and at Giga, so that we have a really immediate, first-class health care available right on the spot when people need it.

所以——是的，特斯拉在弗里蒙特和 Giga 的健康診所，這樣當人們需要時，我們就可以在現場獲得真正即時、一流的醫療保健。

And this is not just for workplace.

這不僅適用於工作場所。

This is for workplace and non-workplace.

這適用於工作場所和非工作場所。

I know.

我知道。

That's super exciting.

這太令人興奮了。

We're leading the world.

我們正在引領世界。

Yes.

是的。

If you like have injury for any reason, then there's health care immediately on site.

如果您喜歡因任何原因受傷，那麼現場會立即提供醫療保健服務。

That's where we plan to go, exactly.

這正是我們計劃去的地方。

And then finally, just being proactive because that's what we're about, innovation and proactive.

最後，只是積極主動，因為這就是我們的宗旨，創新和積極主動。

I mean, we joined a national safety organization.

我的意思是，我們加入了一個國家安全組織。

We partner with many leading universities, including California Berkeley, Center for Occupational and Environmental Health.

我們與許多領先的大學合作，包括加州伯克利大學職業與環境健康中心。

We do presentations there.

我們在那裡做演示。

We work with the automotive industry and do benchmarking all the time.

我們與汽車行業合作，並一直在做基準測試。

We're always looking and bringing people in to look for things that we can do better and for new technology on innovation and safety.

我們一直在尋找並吸引人們來尋找我們可以做得更好的事情以及關於創新和安全的新技術。

And with all of that, we have made improvements in our injury rates.

通過所有這些，我們的受傷率得到了改善。

We are more than 10% better year-over-year in our lost workdays and our days away.

我們失去的工作日和休假時間比去年同期提高了 10% 以上。

But the most important thing is we're also getting all those good engagement observations.

但最重要的是我們也得到了所有這些良好的參與觀察。

They're moving up.

他們正在向上移動。

So injuries down.

所以傷害下降。

Observations, engagements up.

觀察，訂婚。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Right.

正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thanks, Laurie.

謝謝，勞裡。

Yes, we'll provide regular updates on workplace safety.

是的，我們會定期提供有關工作場所安全的最新信息。

And yes, our goals is unequivocally to have the safest factories in the world where people look forward to going to work in the morning.

是的，我們的目標是擁有世界上最安全的工廠，人們期待著早上上班。

So it's like -- yes, that's our goal.

所以就像 - 是的，這就是我們的目標。

All right?

好的？

With that, we can move to questions.

有了這個，我們可以提出問題。

Cool.

涼爽的。

Well, thank you very much.

好的，謝謝。

Sherry, let's go to the first question please.

雪莉，讓我們來回答第一個問題。

Our first question comes from Dan Galves with Wolfe Research.

我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

It's really amazing to see this landmark quarter after covering the company for so long.

在報導了公司這麼長時間之後，看到這個具有里程碑意義的季度真是太神奇了。

And thanks for bringing some of your team on to the call.

感謝您召集您的一些團隊參加電話會議。

It's very interesting.

這很有趣。

My first question is about cell supply.

我的第一個問題是關於電池供應。

There's been some noise about tight cell supply and sparks and tight labor supply.

有一些關於電池供應緊張和火花以及勞動力供應緊張的噪音。

Like in the short term, could you just talk about whether demand is outpacing supply of battery cells?

就像在短期內，你能談談需求是否超過了電池的供應嗎？

And kind of what's your plan for long-term expansion, including cell supply in China?

你有什麼長期擴張計劃，包括在中國的電池供應？

J.B., do you want to take that?

J.B.，你願意接受嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I can speak to that.

我可以談談。

This is J.B. We have had a period where the supply was fairly tight for Model 3. But it did not really constrain the Model 3 production in any significant way.

這就是 J.B。我們曾有一段時期 Model 3 的供應相當緊張。但這並沒有真正限制 Model 3 的生產。

Well, like for a week.

好吧，就像一個星期。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe for a few days.

也許幾天。

Yes, the impact was larger felt on the energy products.

是的，對能源產品的影響更大。

And that's still somewhat tight.

這仍然有些緊張。

But we do -- as we pointed on previous discussions, we do have third-party supplies of energy cells.

但我們有——正如我們在之前的討論中指出的那樣，我們確實有第三方供應的能量電池。

So that production can continue even independently of the Panasonic supply in sparks.

因此，即使不依賴 Panasonic 的火花供應，生產也可以繼續進行。

So that's been very helpful.

所以這非常有幫助。

And that is expanding in future quarters.

這將在未來幾個季度擴大。

And also the Panasonic supply is expanding.

松下的供應也在擴大。

The productivity of existing lines is continuing to improve with a lot of hard work from the engineering teams and just operational stability.

通過工程團隊的大量辛勤工作和運營穩定性，現有生產線的生產力正在不斷提高。

And we continue to bring online new production lines.

我們繼續推出新的生產線。

So even just in the last several weeks, we started out by getting another self-production line with Panasonic.

因此，即使在過去幾週，我們也開始與松下建立另一條自行生產線。

And through the end of the year, there's another line coming on and then one shortly after that.

到年底，還有另一條線路上線，不久之後又一條線路上線。

So there's a steady increase in the total supply that should keep us ahead of even Model 3 growth and also should let us have a larger percentage of energy supply be sourced from Giga locally.

因此，總供應量的穩步增長應該讓我們甚至領先於 Model 3 的增長，也應該讓我們有更大比例的能源供應來自本地 Giga。

Yes.

是的。

We are making a pretty nutty amount of the world's lithium-ion batteries.

我們正在生產世界上大量的鋰離子電池。

And Martin, like, I think we're at 60% or something.

和馬丁一樣，我認為我們達到了 60% 左右。

Yes.

是的。

So at the moment, if you look at -- for example, for Q3, all electric vehicles made around the world, their total battery capacity was about 20 or 19 gigawatt hours.

因此，目前，如果你看一下——例如，對於第三季度，全球製造的所有電動汽車，它們的總電池容量約為 20 或 19 吉瓦時。

And what we produced in Q3 was about the same or a little bit higher.

我們在第三季度生產的產品大致相同或略高一些。

Okay.

好的。

So about half of the world's batteries, basically.

基本上，世界上大約一半的電池。

Yes.

是的。

Well, that's -- because we also source cells from Japan and elsewhere.

嗯，那是因為我們還從日本和其他地方採購細胞。

Was that -- are you talking about just Giga or...

那是——你說的是千兆還是……

So -- yes.

所以——是的。

So just the Giga itself is about 20.

因此，僅 Giga 本身約為 20。

And on top of that, S and Xs, I don't know, another 4 or 5.

最重要的是，S 和 Xs，我不知道，還有 4 或 5 個。

Yes.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

No, it's a huge advantage.

不，這是一個巨大的優勢。

Is there plans that you can talk about for cell supply in China?

有沒有可以談談中國電池供應的計劃？

Will that be produced in China?

會在中國生產嗎？

I'm assuming so.

我假設是這樣。

Long term, it would be produced in China.

從長遠來看，它將在中國生產。

Short term, we're not certain of the short-term situation.

短期，我們不確定短期情況。

But long term, certainly.

但從長遠來看，當然。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I was very surprised in the numbers you reported today, your gross margin performance on the Model 3. So if I remember correctly, you were expecting more of a 15% type of margin for this quarter, and you actually did better than 20%.

我對你今天報告的數據以及 Model 3 的毛利率表現感到非常驚訝。所以如果我沒記錯的話，你預計本季度的利潤率會更高，達到 15%，而實際上你的表現好於 20%。

So can you take us through what improved, like faster and better than you had initially anticipated in the manufacturing line and where these improvements came from?

那麼，您能否帶我們了解一下改進之處，比如在生產線上比您最初預期的更快更好，以及這些改進是從哪裡來的？

Deepak here.

迪帕克在這裡。

And Jerome and others, please feel free to join.

杰羅姆和其他人，請隨時加入。

Our improvements on the cost side were in every aspect of cost.

我們在成本方面的改進體現在成本的各個方面。

So clearly, our manufacturing labor hours improved significantly.

很明顯，我們的製造工時顯著提高。

Our overall manufacturing cost dropped almost 30% sequentially, Q2 to Q3.

從第二季度到第三季度，我們的整體製造成本環比下降了近 30%。

We produced more volume.

我們生產了更多的量。

So we had better fixed cost absorption.

所以我們有更好的固定成本吸收。

We had far less scrap.

我們的廢料要少得多。

Our yield on each of the lines across both factories improved significantly.

我們兩家工廠每條生產線的產量都有顯著提高。

And as we look forward, we see even more opportunities.

展望未來，我們看到了更多機會。

We are going through this phase where we are now stabilizing production and the team can now intensely focus on cost optimization.

我們正在經歷這個階段，我們現在正在穩定生產，團隊現在可以專注於成本優化。

And that trend will just continue in Q4.

這種趨勢將在第四季度繼續下去。

Yes.

是的。

I think we're also being roughly on the conservative side when we predicted it.

我認為當我們預測它時，我們也大致處於保守的一邊。

We said like 15% but we're being conservative...

我們說像 15%，但我們很保守……

Right.

正確的。

Our expectation was we would do better but we wanted to be conservative, you're right, in terms of our guidance that we gave for Q3.

我們的期望是我們會做得更好，但我們想保守一點，你是對的，就我們為第三季度提供的指導而言。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And then on -- as a quick follow-up, you've announced over the weekend like a mid-range car with smaller battery packs.

然後——作為一個快速跟進，你在周末宣布了一輛帶有較小電池組的中檔汽車。

And I was wondering, as you're looking at expanding, for example, the Model 3, I think about it as you had 2 options.

我想知道，當您正在考慮擴展例如 Model 3 時，我認為您有兩個選擇。

One was to go -- grow and to keep what you're seeing at higher-end, higher-ASP car.

一個是去——成長並保持你在更高端、更高ASP的汽車上看到的東西。

And the other one was to go for a lower-cost car and stick to the U.S. So how did you decide the sequencing of these 2 things?

另一個是去買一輛低成本的汽車並堅持美國。那麼你是如何決定這兩件事的順序的？

Why is it lower car now and going abroad in the early next year?

為什麼現在車價低，明年初出國？

Well, we're trying to provide the most affordable electric car options that we can.

好吧，我們正在努力提供我們所能提供的最實惠的電動汽車選擇。

And since we just don't have the money to get to a $35,000 car right away, we thought this might be a way to offer it as an intermediate step.

而且由於我們沒有錢立即購買 35,000 美元的汽車，我們認為這可能是提供它作為中間步驟的一種方式。

And that's really it.

就是這樣。

Yes, we expect to start producing a significant volume for Europe in January.

是的，我們預計將在 1 月份開始為歐洲生產大量產品。

And it obviously takes some time to ship.

而且顯然需要一些時間才能發貨。

So deliveries, probably pretty significant deliveries in Europe, kind of in the late February, March time frame because the cars have to get all the way from California to a customer in Europe.

因此，交付，可能是在歐洲非常重要的交付，在 2 月下旬，3 月的時間範圍內，因為汽車必須從加利福尼亞一路運到歐洲的客戶。

And for us, cars only count as delivered if it reaches the end customer and all the paperwork is completed correctly.

對我們來說，汽車只有在到達最終客戶並且所有文書工作都正確完成時才算交付。

So it's the highest possible standard for considering a sale a sale.

因此，這是考慮銷售的最高標準。

Yes.

是的。

And also to APAC, we start delivering cars.

我們也開始向亞太地區交付汽車。

Yes.

是的。

The -- we may or may not deliver cars in APAC in Q1 but certainly in Q2.

- 我們可能會也可能不會在第一季度在亞太地區交付汽車，但肯定會在第二季度。

It will be kind of borderline as to whether cars are delivered in APAC by the end of Q1.

到第一季度末汽車是否在亞太地區交付將是一種邊界。

So I can't say it for certain.

所以我不能肯定地說。

Definitely in Europe.

肯定在歐洲。

But -- and then definitely in APAC in Q2.

但是——然後肯定是在第二季度的亞太地區。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Romit Shah。

I guess just along those lines, you indicated that you're going to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year.

我想就按照這些思路，您表示您將在明年初將 Model 3 帶到歐洲。

Where would you like to see production in order to support that ramp overseas?

您希望在哪裡看到生產以支持海外的增長？

Well, initially, production will occur -- I mean, these last next several months, all production is -- vehicle production will take place at our car plant in California.

嗯，最初，生產將發生——我的意思是，在接下來的幾個月裡，所有的生產都是——汽車生產將在我們位於加利福尼亞的汽車工廠進行。

Sorry, I meant to ask, where would you like to see the production rate on a weekly basis go to in order to support that ramp?

抱歉，我的意思是問，您希望每週查看生產率以支持該斜坡嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's hard to predict with accuracy.

很難準確預測。

The -- and there's also like all the tariff wars and everything.

- 還有就像所有的關稅戰和一切。

So long term, I'd like to say like we're not talking about like next quarter.

從長遠來看，我想說我們不是在談論下個季度。

So like what is global -- likely global demand for Model 3. It's probably in the order of -- anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million cars a year, let's say, good global demand for Model 3. I think it's something like, say, the 3 Series, that's around 0.5 million.

就像全球對 Model 3 的需求一樣。大概是每年 500,000 到 100 萬輛汽車，比方說，全球對 Model 3 的良好需求。我認為這就像，比如說， 3系列，大約是50萬。

0.5 million.

50 萬。

The BMW 3 Series is about 0.5 million a year globally.

BMW 3 系列在全球每年的銷量約為 50 萬輛。

And generally, we find that we outcompete the BMW 3 Series quite well.

總的來說，我們發現我們在競爭中勝過 BMW 3 系。

So it seems like logical therefore that we will long term have a higher production -- or higher demand, maybe somewhere between kind of the BMW 3 Series and the Volkswagen Golf, which is about 1 million units a year.

因此，從長遠來看，我們將有更高的產量或更高的需求似乎是合乎邏輯的，可能介於寶馬 3 系和大眾高爾夫之間，大約每年 100 萬輛。

So yes, that's why I said anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million units a year, long term.

所以是的，這就是為什麼我說長期每年生產 500,000 到 100 萬台。

And you have to add new lines to support that?

而且您必須添加新行來支持它？

Or are you just going to continue to remove bottlenecks in the existing lines?

還是您只是要繼續消除現有生產線中的瓶頸？

No.

不。

We're definitely going to do local production.

我們肯定會進行本地生產。

In China, we're moving rapidly on that.

在中國，我們正在這方面迅速採取行動。

So we're aiming to have Model 3 production for the China market, for the Greater China market, active certainly next year.

所以我們的目標是在明年為中國市場和大中華市場生產 Model 3。

It will be happening next year.

這將在明年發生。

But it will be done in a very capital-efficient manner, much more akin to the way we did General Assembly line 4 versus General Assembly line 3. And then we'll also have a factory in Europe long term because it's pretty silly to make cars in California and ship them all the way to Europe.

但它將以一種非常節省資本的方式完成，更類似於我們在第 4 號裝配線與第 3 號裝配線之間的方式。然後我們還將在歐洲長期擁有一家工廠，因為製造起來很愚蠢加利福尼亞州的汽車並將它們一路運往歐洲。

That's far.

那很遠。

Especially in high volumes.

尤其是在大批量。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Essentially, it's -- I'm not talking about S and X. I'm just talking about the 3. So S and X will continue to be made in California.

本質上，它是——我不是在談論 S 和 X。我只是在談論 3。所以 S 和 X 將繼續在加利福尼亞製造。

I think probably exclusively here.

我想可能只在這裡。

For cars, we're trying to maximize affordability.

對於汽車，我們正試圖最大限度地提高可負擔性。

It makes a lot of sense to produce those cars at least in the continent where they are consumed or bought.

至少在它們被消費或購買的大陸生產這些汽車是很有意義的。

Our next question comes from George Galliers with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 George Galliers。

Maybe just following up on the previous question.

也許只是跟進上一個問題。

Is the target still to produce 10,000 Model 3s a week in 3 months?

3 個月內每週生產 10,000 輛 Model 3 的目標是否仍然存在？

And I think you mentioned in the past that once you got to run rate of around 5,000, you'd be better placed to assess what CapEx is required to get there.

而且我認為您過去曾提到，一旦您的運行率達到 5,000 左右，您就可以更好地評估達到該目標所需的資本支出。

So as of today, do you have a better idea of what CapEx is required to get to that kind of level at 3 months?

因此，截至今天，您是否對在 3 個月內達到這種水平所需的資本支出有更好的了解？

I think we're not prepared to speak to that right now, except that it will be conservatively less than the money that we spent to get to 5,000 in the first place, like quite -- I think quite dramatically less.

我認為我們現在還沒有準備好談論這個問題，只是保守地說，它會比我們最初為達到 5,000 所花費的錢要少，就像相當 - 我認為相當少。

So like I'd probably see a path to like 7,000 units with Model 3 with really minimal CapEx.

所以就像我可能會看到一條使用 Model 3 以非常少的資本支出獲得 7,000 個單位的路徑。

Very minimal.

非常少。

Yes.

是的。

Very minimal to get to 7,000 a week.

每周達到 7,000 條的門檻非常低。

And then that's really just basically solving -- improving the uptime of the existing lines.

然後這實際上只是基本解決 - 提高現有生產線的正常運行時間。

And we can do the 7,000 a week.

我們可以每週完成 7,000 次。

Yes, so -- and then it gets a little harder as you start to go above 7,000.

是的，所以——然後當你開始超過 7,000 時，它會變得有點困難。

We would need to at least bring lines down in Fremont for significant upgrades to get to 10k.

我們至少需要減少弗里蒙特的線路，以便進行重大升級以達到 10k。

But also just not -- we're not talking about massive amount of CapEx.

但也不是——我們不是在談論大量的資本支出。

But let's say like long term, it's -- again long term, it's -- predicting these on a quarter-by-quarter basis is very difficult because when you have an exponential growth rate like we do -- I mean, if look at Tesla's cumulative deliveries over time, it's like the cleanest exponential curve that I've ever seen.

但是，讓我們說，就像長期一樣，它是 - 再次長期，它是 - 逐季度預測這些是非常困難的，因為當你有像我們這樣的指數增長率時 - 我的意思是，如果看看特斯拉的隨著時間的推移累積交付，這就像我見過的最乾淨的指數曲線。

So -- but small movements in calendar time can look like a very large hit or miss one way or the other because it's such a steep curve.

所以——但是日曆時間的小動作可能看起來像一個非常大的命中或錯失，因為它是如此陡峭的曲線。

That's why I'm -- it's very tricky to predict things on a quarterly basis but a lot easier if you go out a year or so.

這就是為什麼我——每季度預測一次事情是非常棘手的，但如果你出去一年左右就會容易得多。

Yes, I mean, it -- probably long term, it's at least sort of 7,000 to 10,000 cars from Fremont of Model 3 and then, I don't know, 5,000 to 8,000 in the rest of world, something like that.

是的，我的意思是，它——可能是長期的，至少有 7,000 到 10,000 輛來自 Fremont 的 Model 3，然後，我不知道，在世界其他地方有 5,000 到 8,000 輛，類似的。

It's just a guess.

這只是一個猜測。

Okay.

好的。

And then just as a follow-up, in the letter, you do point out the size of the European market for premium midsized sedans is roughly twice that of the U.S. Could you also just maybe comment to what your expectations are for mix in Europe?

然後，作為後續行動，在信中，您確實指出歐洲高端中型轎車市場的規模大約是美國的兩倍。您能否也評論一下您對歐洲混合車型的期望？

Based off Model S and Model X, do you expect a richer mix in Europe versus the U.S.?

基於 Model S 和 Model X，您是否期望歐洲比美國更豐富的組合？

Or is it fairly similar?

還是非常相似？

We've given that 0 thought.

我們已經給出了 0 的想法。

I mean, this is like there's not -- I don't know, Martin, do you have anything to add?

我的意思是，這就像沒有——我不知道，馬丁，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

All I'm aware of is that because of cold weather, probably all-wheel drive and long-battery range will be highly demanded in Europe.

我所知道的是，由於天氣寒冷，歐洲可能會非常需要全輪驅動和長續航。

But apart from that -- I mean, we ultimately have to start selling the car to see what the demand is.

但除此之外——我的意思是，我們最終必須開始銷售汽車，看看需求是什麼。

So...

所以...

Yes.

是的。

I mean, it seems like it's likely to be comparable to -- if premium midsized sedan market is like twice as big in Europe, then it's likely there will be at least as much demand in Europe as in North America.

我的意思是，它似乎可以與 - 如果歐洲的高端中型轎車市場規模是兩倍，那麼歐洲的需求可能至少與北美一樣多。

Like that's a pretty safe bet.

就像這是一個非常安全的賭注。

But our goal really is to make electric cars that everyone can afford, not just to sort of mine high option value cars.

但我們的目標確實是製造每個人都能買得起的電動汽車，而不僅僅是生產高期權價值的汽車。

It's like if we could produce a $35,000 car today, we would do it.

就好像我們今天能生產一輛價值 35,000 美元的汽車，我們就會去做。

We need more work.

我們需要更多的工作。

There's more work to do before we can make a $35,000 car and have it be positive gross margin.

在我們製造一輛 35,000 美元的汽車並使其毛利率為正之前，還有更多工作要做。

I'm not -- we're probably less than 6 months from that, but that's our mission.

我不是——我們可能還不到 6 個月的時間，但這是我們的使命。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Maynard Um with Macquarie.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Maynard Um 和 Macquarie。

As you continue to scale the business, can you talk about how we should think about how you balance profits versus reinvestments?

隨著您繼續擴大業務規模，您能否談談我們應該如何考慮如何平衡利潤與再投資？

You're targeting sustainable GAAP profitability and cash flow.

您的目標是可持續的 GAAP 盈利能力和現金流。

But I'm curious if there's a level of GAAP profitability or GAAP operating margin or cash flow you want to hold and then take the excess to fund new growth or accelerate opportunities?

但我很好奇，您是否想持有一定程度的 GAAP 盈利能力或 GAAP 營業利潤率或現金流，然後將多餘的部分用於為新的增長或加速機會提供資金？

Sure.

當然。

I mean, maybe to -- if I characterize that question, it'll be like, are we starving new vehicle development in order to achieve GAAP profitably and cash flow positive?

我的意思是，也許——如果我描述這個問題，它會是，我們是否正在餓死新車開發以實現 GAAP 盈利和現金流為正？

Would that be an accurate -- is that essentially -- like the answer is no.

這是否準確——本質上是這樣——就像答案是否定的一樣。

So we've made significant progress on the Model Y. So in fact, I approved the prototype to go to production recently.

所以我們在 Model Y 上取得了重大進展。事實上，我最近批准了原型投入生產。

So it will be 2020 before that's in volume production.

所以在量產之前要等到 2020 年。

But we made great progress there.

但我們在那裡取得了很大進展。

Also continue to make progress on the semi and the newer Tesla Roadster.

還繼續在半成品和更新的特斯拉跑車上取得進展。

And then actually, the product I'm personally most excited about is the Tesla pickup truck.

然後實際上，我個人最興奮的產品是特斯拉皮卡車。

It's like -- I think that's going to reach the next level stuff there.

這就像 - 我認為這將達到下一個層次的東西。

And then I should not forget to mention the solar tile roof.

然後我不應該忘記提到太陽能瓦屋頂。

We'll also start going into volume production of the solar tile roof next year.

明年我們還將開始批量生產太陽能瓦屋頂。

That's quite a long development cycle for -- because anything that's roof has got to last 30 years.

這是一個相當長的開發週期——因為任何屋頂都必須持續 30 年。

So even if you do accelerate life testing as fast as possible, there's still a minimum amount of time required to do that.

因此，即使您確實盡可能快地加速壽命測試，仍然需要最少的時間來做到這一點。

And there's a lot of engineering that goes into how do you put on the solar tile roof with a -- and not be really labor-intensive in doing so.

並且有很多工程涉及如何在太陽能瓦屋頂上放置 - 而且這樣做並不是真正的勞動密集型。

So there's a lot of engineering not just in the tile but in the way it's done.

所以有很多工程不僅在瓷磚上，而且在它的完成方式上。

And then we've got continued improvements in Powerwall, Powerpack, other energy products.

然後我們繼續改進 Powerwall、Powerpack 和其他能源產品。

I think we've got the most exciting product road map of any company by far.

我認為我們擁有迄今為止任何公司中最令人興奮的產品路線圖。

And I'm not even sure, like probably twice.

我什至不確定，可能兩次。

I don't even know who would have -- which company would have a better product road map or even close.

我什至不知道誰會有 - 哪家公司會有更好的產品路線圖甚至關閉。

Yes.

是的。

Maybe they do, but I don't know about them.

也許他們有，但我不知道他們。

Great.

偉大的。

And when you think about Tesla having its own ride-sharing fleet or giving people the ability to loan out their car like an Airbnb model, I'm curious if your long-term plan is to build a platform that's going to enable companies to write applications to turn the car directly into an application.

當你想到特斯拉擁有自己的拼車車隊或讓人們能夠像 Airbnb 模型一樣借車時，我很好奇你的長期計劃是否是建立一個平台，讓公司能夠寫作應用程序將汽車直接變成應用程序。

And then can you also maybe just talk about that business model?

然後你也可以談談那個商業模式嗎？

Is that -- should we be thinking more about like a revenue-sharing model sort of like how Apple takes a piece of revenue generated for applications from iPhones?

是不是——我們是否應該更多地考慮一種收入分享模式，就像蘋果公司如何從 iPhone 的應用程序中獲取收入一樣？

I don't know about turning the car into an application exactly.

我不知道將汽車完全變成應用程序。

But I mean, maybe.

但我的意思是，也許。

But we're trying to do things that maximizes usefulness.

但我們正在嘗試做最大化有用性的事情。

And so if there's a way we can think of where third parties could do something, then that could make sense.

因此，如果有一種方法可以讓我們想到第三方可以在哪裡做某事，那麼這可能是有道理的。

But I do know for sure that Tesla will operate its own ride-hailing right -- its own ride-hailing service.

但我確信特斯拉將運營自己的叫車服務——它自己的叫車服務。

We'll compete directly with Uber and Lyft, obviously, but then also have the ability for customers to offer their car and add or subtract their car to the fleet at will.

顯然，我們將與 Uber 和 Lyft 直接競爭，但隨後也有能力讓客戶提供他們的汽車，並隨意在車隊中增加或減少他們的汽車。

It will be a company-owned fleet.

這將是一個公司擁有的機隊。

And the company-owned fleet will just be where there aren't enough customer cars to be lent out.

而公司擁有的車隊將只是在沒有足夠的客戶汽車可以出租的地方。

So if we find like in a particular metro, there aren't enough customers who are willing to add their car to the shared fleet, then that's where we'll supplement it with a Tesla-owned fleet.

因此，如果我們發現在特定的地鐵中，沒有足夠的客戶願意將他們的汽車添加到共享車隊中，那麼我們將用特斯拉擁有的車隊對其進行補充。

So that's why it's a sort of combination of the Uber/Lyft thing and Airbnb.

這就是為什麼它是 Uber/Lyft 和 Airbnb 的一種結合。

And then we will charge something probably comparable to, yes, how does the App Store works, or I don't know, we charge 30% or something in order for somebody to add the car to the fleet.

然後我們將收取可能與 App Store 的運作方式相當的費用，或者我不知道，我們收取 30% 或其他費用，以便有人將汽車添加到車隊中。

I think that's like a pretty sensible way to go.

我認為這是一個非常明智的方法。

Yes.

是的。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

First question is on governance.

第一個問題是關於治理的。

As the company conducts its search for a new Chairman, what are the attributes and experiences of that person that you think would be a best fit or best value for Tesla?

在公司尋找新董事長時，您認為該人的哪些特質和經歷最適合特斯拉或最有價值？

Actually, on this call, we are going to restrict the questions to operational topics.

實際上，在這次電話會議上，我們將把問題限制在運營主題上。

Do you have another question?

你還有其他問題要問嗎？

No problem.

沒問題。

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

Can you tell us about the folks who are taking deliveries of Model 3?

你能告訴我們那些正在接收 Model 3 的人嗎？

What are the top cars, car models or brands that they're trading in or switching out of?

他們正在交易或退出的頂級汽車、車型或品牌是什麼？

How many are new to the brand?

有多少是新品牌？

Anything you're prepared to share, and then I've got a follow-up.

您準備分享的任何內容，然後我都會跟進。

Sure.

當然。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

This is Martin.

這是馬丁。

So I've done all the analysis of all the trade-ins that we've received.

所以我已經對我們收到的所有以舊換新做了所有的分析。

And really the only pattern that I've seen is that it's sort of all across the board, and the vast majority is non-premium brands.

實際上，我看到的唯一模式是它有點全面，而且絕大多數是非高端品牌。

I think that is the #1 message.

我認為這是#1 信息。

It's just that more than half of the trade-ins we received were priced at below $35,000 when new.

只是我們收到的以舊換新產品中有一半以上的價格低於 35,000 美元。

But other than that, there's no real pattern.

但除此之外，沒有真正的模式。

I haven't noticed anything worth highlighting other than it's just a lot of people upgrading their cars quite dramatically.

除了很多人大幅升級他們的汽車外，我沒有註意到任何值得強調的事情。

This is a huge upgrade.

這是一個巨大的升級。

Yes, for most people -- well, maybe for most, but for many people, it is the most expensive car they've ever bought.

是的，對大多數人來說——嗯，也許對大多數人來說，但對很多人來說，這是他們買過的最貴的車。

So they're clearly demonstrating with their money, that they're willing to spend extra money to get a Tesla.

所以他們用他們的錢清楚地表明，他們願意花額外的錢來買一輛特斯拉。

So like suddenly there's a sense of like mass-market premium.

所以就像突然之間有一種大眾市場溢價的感覺。

And the price walk is way beyond the federal tax credit.

價格波動遠遠超出了聯邦稅收抵免。

So clearly, there is value to the car that they are perceiving, whether it's cost of ownership, whether it's sustainability, whether it's the brand or the product itself.

很明顯，他們認為汽車是有價值的，無論是擁有成本，還是可持續性，無論是品牌還是產品本身。

Safety.

安全。

And safety.

和安全。

And the safety.

和安全。

All of the above is making a large number of customers jump up significantly in their purchase price.

所有這些都使大量客戶的購買價格大幅上漲。

Yes.

是的。

I mean really, I think -- I honestly feel like the top reason to refer a friend to buy a Tesla is it's going to keep your friend safe.

我的意思是真的，我認為 - 老實說，我覺得推薦朋友購買特斯拉的首要原因是它可以保證你朋友的安全。

That's a good reason.

這是一個很好的理由。

If I can just squeeze in since I couldn't ask the first one that you could answer, do you think that the third quarter is a milestone, Elon, where you think Tesla becomes sustainably self-funding and perhaps not in need of outside capital?

如果我不能問你能回答的第一個問題，我只能擠進去，你認為第三季度是一個里程碑嗎，埃隆，你認為特斯拉在這個時候變得可持續自籌資金，也許不需要外部資本?

Yes, that is our goal.

是的，這就是我們的目標。

We do not intend to raise equity or debt.

我們不打算籌集股本或債務。

At least that's our intention right now.

至少這是我們現在的意圖。

That may change in the future.

這在未來可能會改變。

But the current operating plan is to pay off our debts and not to refinance them but to pay them off and reduce the debt load and overall leverage of the company.

但目前的經營計劃是還清我們的債務，而不是再融資，而是還清債務，降低公司的債務負擔和整體槓桿率。

So -- and actually, I almost forgot one quite important thing.

所以——實際上，我幾乎忘記了一件非常重要的事情。

As -- and this is quite helpful.

作為——這很有幫助。

It's helpful to have these sort of crisis situations with logistics, for example.

例如，在物流方面出現這類危機情況是有幫助的。

As I dug into the inventory -- like basically finished product inventory from factory to the customer, I was quite surprised to see how long that took and that it was quite expensive in a lot of cases to get cars to customers.

當我挖掘庫存時——就像從工廠到客戶的基本上成品庫存一樣，我很驚訝地看到這需要多長時間，而且在很多情況下將汽車送到客戶手中是相當昂貴的。

This was something I didn't fully appreciate before.

這是我以前沒有完全欣賞的東西。

And we really have a major initiative at Tesla to get the average time from a car exiting the factory to receiving the check from the customer, being in the customer's hands, we have to be clear, we can only get the check when we give the car to the customer.

而且我們在特斯拉確實有一個重大舉措，要計算從汽車出廠到收到客戶支票的平均時間，在客戶手中，我們必須清楚，只有當我們給出支票時，我們才能得到支票車給客戶。

So getting the car from the factory to a customer, to get that to be as short as possible.

因此，將汽車從工廠送到客戶手中，以使其盡可能短。

In August, the average time in North America to get a car from the factory to the customer was 30 days, which is embarrassingly long.

8月份，北美地區從工廠到客戶取車的平均時間是30天，長的讓人尷尬。

By the end of the quarter, we've reduced it to around 20 days.

到本季度末，我們已將其減少到大約 20 天。

And our goal in Q4 -- this is a goal, not a promise.

我們在第四季度的目標——這是一個目標，而不是一個承諾。

But our goal is to get the average time of a car from the factory to a customer under 10 days.

但我們的目標是讓汽車從工廠到客戶的平均時間少於 10 天。

This is a giant improvement in the capital efficiency of the company because we're making on the order of $75 million worth of products per day -- of cars per day.

這是公司資本效率的巨大進步，因為我們每天生產價值 7500 萬美元的產品——每天生產汽車。

So every day, it requires $75,000 -- $75 million worth of capital.

所以每天，它需要 75,000 美元 - 7500 萬美元的資本。

So every 10 days, it's $750 million.

因此，每 10 天，就有 7.5 億美元。

And we -- obviously, we have a loan from the bank that we can make use of.

我們 - 顯然，我們從銀行獲得了一筆可以利用的貸款。

But the banks will only loan us 85% of the cost of the vehicle, which translates to about 70% of the price of the vehicle.

但銀行只會藉給我們車輛成本的 85%，相當於車輛價格的 70%。

So -- and then we've got this loan outstanding, which effectively increases the COGS of the car.

所以 - 然後我們有這筆未償還的貸款，這有效地增加了汽車的銷貨成本。

And it dilutes the company to the tune of 30% of one of the inventory -- of the finished goods in transit is.

它使公司稀釋到庫存之一的 30%——在途成品。

So this is really like tightening that and getting that below 10 days in North America and then also improving dramatically the time -- the transit time to Europe and Asia.

所以這真的就像在北美收緊並使其低於 10 天，然後也顯著改善時間 - 到歐洲和亞洲的運輸時間。

It is where like having local factories is actually very important for the capital efficiency of the overall system because I think over time, we want to get the time for a car going from a factory to a customer under 7 days worldwide.

就像擁有本地工廠一樣，實際上對於整個系統的資本效率非常重要，因為我認為隨著時間的推移，我們希望在全球 7 天內讓汽車從工廠到客戶的時間。

And then the terms that we have from our suppliers are, on average, just over 60 days.

然後，我們從供應商那裡得到的條款平均只有 60 多天。

Now our parts inventory management, also there's a lot of room for improvement there.

現在我們的零件庫存管理，還有很大的改進空間。

We think we can probably cut that down to a few hundred million dollars or so, Deepak, something like that, maybe $200 million or $300 million of parts at the factory.

我們認為我們可能可以將其減少到幾億美元左右，迪帕克，類似的，也許是工廠的 2 億美元或 3 億美元的零件。

So effectively, what we're going to do is reverse the working capital requirement for the company quite dramatically to the point where the faster we grow, the more capital we have.

如此有效地，我們要做的就是將公司的營運資金需求大幅扭轉到我們發展得越快，我們擁有的資金就越多的地步。

This is incredibly important for the capital efficiency of the company.

這對於公司的資本效率非常重要。

It's night and day.

這是白天和黑夜。

Deepak, is there anything you'd like to...

迪帕克，你有什麼想要...

No, I think you are totally -- we are reducing the raw material inventory on one hand by keeping production stable, finding efficiencies in warehouse management and supply chain and at the same time, reducing the time to deliver the car and convert that car into cash.

不，我認為你完全是——我們一方面通過保持生產穩定、提高倉庫管理和供應鏈的效率來減少原材料庫存，同時減少交付汽車並將汽車改裝成現金。

And that significantly improves working capital needs.

這顯著改善了營運資金需求。

Yes.

是的。

It's really quite dramatic.

這真的很戲劇化。

So -- yes, I think it sort of profoundly changes the financial effectiveness of Tesla.

所以——是的，我認為這在某種程度上深刻地改變了特斯拉的財務效率。

Yes.

是的。

We reduced our inventory in Q3, which helped.

我們在第三季度減少了庫存，這有所幫助。

And although we had higher payables because -- sorry, higher receivables because the quarter ended on a weekend, we won't have that in Q4.

雖然我們有更高的應付賬款，因為 - 抱歉，更高的應收賬款，因為本季度在周末結束，但我們不會在第四季度獲得。

So all of this should continue to help us in Q4 and beyond, the working capital gain.

因此，所有這些都應該繼續幫助我們在第四季度及以後的營運資本收益。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, it occurred to me that even if the only thing -- like even if this was the only thing that Tesla did different, was to shorten the time from factory to the end customer, any given company that did that will outcompete all other companies over time.

我的意思是，我突然想到，即使唯一的事情——即使這是特斯拉所做的唯一不同的事情，就是縮短從工廠到最終客戶的時間，任何這樣做的公司都將勝過所有其他公司公司隨著時間的推移。

It will not be a contest.

這不會是一場比賽。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

I have one for Deepak and then a follow-up, please.

我有一個給 Deepak 的，然後請跟進。

Deepak, the OpEx expense management was very strong in the quarter.

Deepak，本季度的運營支出費用管理非常強勁。

I think it was down 13% sequentially, and OpEx was only up 5% year-over-year despite revenue growing 71%.

我認為它環比下降了 13%，儘管收入增長了 71%，但運營支出僅同比增長 5%。

So on that front, I mean, in hindsight, did you get too bloated and needed to get more rightsized?

所以在這方面，我的意思是，事後看來，你是不是太臃腫了，需要變得更合適？

And looking forward, how do we think about OpEx growth versus revenue growth on kind of a more normalized basis?

展望未來，我們如何在更規範的基礎上考慮運營支出增長與收入增長？

Yes.

是的。

Tony, so excluding onetime items, our OpEx decreased sequentially by 5%, to just clarify that first of all.

托尼，所以不包括一次性項目，我們的運營支出依次下降了 5%，首先澄清一下。

And a lot of that was driven by the actions we took in Q2 to be more efficient with our employee headcount.

其中很多是由我們在第二季度採取的行動推動的，以提高員工人數的效率。

We benefited from that in Q3.

我們在第三季度從中受益。

And we were really careful in terms of all of our spending.

我們在所有支出方面都非常小心。

The other piece that helped us is a lot of our Model 3 spending on expense, sort of, R&D is reducing because Model 3 is going into production.

幫助我們的另一部分是我們的 Model 3 大量支出，在某種程度上，研發正在減少，因為 Model 3 正在投入生產。

So Q2 to Q3, we saw a reduction there.

所以第二季度到第三季度，我們看到那裡有所減少。

And it just gives you the sense of the leverage of -- the operating expenses can have while our revenue was growing dramatically.

它只是讓你感覺到——在我們的收入急劇增長的同時，運營費用可能會產生影響。

So our OpEx will increase in the future but in a far slower rate, and we will continue to be really, really careful about the spending.

因此，我們的運營支出在未來會增加，但速度會慢得多，我們將繼續對支出非常非常小心。

And I think there are actually more efficiencies than we can find.

而且我認為實際上有比我們能找到的更多的效率。

We are going to find them, absolutely.

我們一定會找到他們的。

Right.

正確的。

So we'll continue down that path.

所以我們將繼續沿著這條路走下去。

Definitely.

確實。

And then to follow up, I was just wondering if you can help us a little bit on the -- back to the gross margin on Model 3 and the $35,000 car.

然後跟進，我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們 - 回到 Model 3 和 35,000 美元汽車的毛利率。

So this quarter, I impute that Model 3 ASPs were maybe $59,000.

所以本季度，我估計 Model 3 的平均售價可能為 59,000 美元。

And that might suggest that gross margins on a $35,000 Model 3 might be about 0. And Elon, I think you alluded to the fact that the goal is really to get positive gross margins on a $35,000 car before shipping.

這可能表明 35,000 美元的 Model 3 的毛利率可能約為 0。埃隆，我認為你提到了這樣一個事實，即目標實際上是在發貨前在 35,000 美元的汽車上獲得正的毛利率。

Are those all fair assessments?

這些都是公平的評價嗎？

And I guess the question is, where is -- where would a Model 3 -- $35,000 Model 3 be in terms of gross margins today?

我想問題是，就今天的毛利率而言，35,000 美元的 Model 3 會在哪裡？

And where does it need to be before you want to offer it broadly to consumers?

在您想向消費者廣泛提供它之前，它需要在哪裡？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, it's -- look, the problem with asking questions of that nature in detail is that it is a rapidly changing situation.

我的意思是，看，詳細詢問這種性質的問題的問題在於，這是一個快速變化的情況。

So like literally, if you would ask this in a month, it will be different.

所以就像字面意思一樣，如果你在一個月內問這個問題，情況會有所不同。

In another month, it will be different.

再過一個月，就會不一樣了。

The -- there's no question that we need to get to a point where we can sell a $35,000 car and where the full accountable COGS of the car is, let's say, on the order of $30,000 or slightly less than $30,000.

- 毫無疑問，我們需要達到可以銷售 35,000 美元的汽車的程度，並且汽車的全部責任 COGS 是，比方說，在 30,000 美元或略低於 30,000 美元的訂單上。

So I think we want to ideally get the COGS of the car -- of that, configuration of the car, under $30,000.

所以我認為我們希望理想地獲得汽車的 COGS - 其中汽車的配置，低於 30,000 美元。

That would be -- that's our goal.

那將是 - 這就是我們的目標。

That's what we're pushing very hard to achieve.

這就是我們正在努力實現的目標。

Exactly.

確切地。

And it's just a matter of time.

這只是時間問題。

It's -- there's a significant and material COGS reduction that comes.

這是 - 有一個顯著和實質性的 COGS 減少。

We have the smaller battery packs with fewer amount of cells.

我們的電池組更小，電池數量更少。

It's not the same cells that we have in the existing cars.

它與我們現有汽車中的電池不同。

And you can see the...

而且你可以看到...

Fewer cells but it's not the same...

更少的細胞，但它不一樣......

It's the same amount of service.

這是相同數量的服務。

So same cost.

所以同樣的費用。

Fewer cells and then the non-cell portion of the pack is also cost reduced.

更少的電池以及電池組的非電池部分也降低了成本。

With the current midrange pack, it still has the same -- basically about the same non-cell portion of the past cost.

使用當前的中端電池組，它仍然具有相同的 - 基本上與過去成本相同的非電池部分。

Exactly.

確切地。

And we are seeing massive reduction in all our manufacturing cost per car, which will continue.

而且我們看到每輛汽車的所有製造成本都大幅降低，這種情況將繼續下去。

And as volume grows, that also helps us with the fixed cost absorption.

隨著數量的增長，這也有助於我們吸收固定成本。

So it's the same factors that have helped us so far, will continue to help us moving forward to get us there.

因此，到目前為止幫助我們的因素相同，將繼續幫助我們向前邁進。

Anything you want to add, J.B.?

有什麼要補充的嗎，J.B.？

No?

不？

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge.

您的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。

Wanted to -- just a point of clarification.

想要——只是澄清一點。

Elon, you mentioned in August the time to get the car from a factory to a customer was 30 days, down to 20 at the end of the quarter.

Elon，您在 8 月份提到將汽車從工廠送到客戶手中的時間是 30 天，到本季度末減少到 20 天。

Your goal is under 10 by the end of 4Q.

到第四季度末，您的目標是低於 10。

Where do we see that flow through from a COGS perspective?

從 COGS 的角度來看，我們在哪裡看到了這種流動？

Is that in automotive gross margin?

是汽車毛利率嗎？

Or is that in services and other at this point?

或者在這一點上是在服務和其他方面嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's all in automotive gross margin.

這都是汽車毛利率。

All logistics costs outbound, it's all in COGS for Automotive.

所有的物流成本都在汽車的 COGS 中。

Outbound logistics.

出境物流。

Yes, I think we'll see a reduction in inbound logistics as well as outbound logistics.

是的，我認為我們會看到入境物流和出境物流的減少。

Maybe a question is like, for the debt that is carried for that period of time, is that factored into COGS?

也許一個問題是，對於那段時間所承擔的債務，是否計入 COGS？

Or is that not?

或者不是嗎？

The interest expense of the debt, that's in the interest expense line, okay.

債務的利息支出，在利息支出行中，好吧。

It's not in COGS.

它不在 COGS 中。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

That's why I think for the definition of COGS, it should probably be important to include anything that's directly driven by volume.

這就是為什麼我認為對於 COGS 的定義，包括任何直接由數量驅動的東西可能很重要。

Essentially, that affects the marginal cost of the vehicle.

從本質上講，這會影響車輛的邊際成本。

So although that is not in -- officially in COGS, in my opinion, it probably should be, to take the ABL interest expense and apply that effectively to the cost of the car.

因此，雖然這不是 - 正式在 COGS 中，但在我看來，它可能應該是，將 ABL 利息費用有效地應用於汽車成本。

And from a broader sense, you're looking at it as the cost of doing business, which can be volume.

從更廣泛的意義上講，您將其視為開展業務的成本，可以是數量。

Yes.

是的。

Just essentially, the cash flow for everybody increases quite dramatically.

從本質上講，每個人的現金流量都會急劇增加。

Dilution or leverage outside of the ABL line improves dramatically.

ABL 線外的稀釋或槓桿作用顯著提高。

And then the de facto cost of -- the effective cost of the car also reduces because you do not have the interest expense.

然後事實上的成本——汽車的有效成本也降低了，因為你沒有利息費用。

If you have interest expense over 20 days versus 10 days, this is a big difference.

如果您有超過 20 天和 10 天的利息費用，這是一個很大的區別。

Yes.

是的。

Understood.

明白了。

I appreciate that clarification.

我很欣賞這一澄清。

Sort of what I was trying to get at, you've been running in negative gross margin in services and other for several quarters now.

就像我試圖理解的那樣，你已經在服務和其他方面的毛利率為負數幾個季度了。

And wanted to get a sense for when that could maybe trough and start to turn the corner and to generate some profit for you.

並且想要了解何時可能會跌至谷底並開始轉折並為您帶來一些利潤。

I understand there's a lot of building out going on for sales, service and charging infrastructure.

我知道銷售、服務和充電基礎設施方面正在進行大量建設。

But if you could give us some kind of clarification there, that would be, I think, helpful.

但是，如果您可以在那裡給我們一些澄清，我認為那將是有幫助的。

And if you're willing maybe to provide an update on where you stand today in terms of battery costs.

如果您願意提供有關您今天在電池成本方面的最新情況。

I know your goal of sort of parity with ICE vehicles but maybe an update, if you're willing to provide, on where you stand on that trajectory.

我知道你的目標是與 ICE 車輛相提並論，但如果你願意提供的話，可能會更新你在這條軌跡上的位置。

I think over time, every quarter, progressively, we will see an improvement in the Service and Other business as our revenue continues to grow and as the size of our fleet grows.

我認為隨著時間的推移，隨著我們的收入持續增長以及我們機隊規模的擴大，我們將在每個季度逐步看到服務和其他業務的改善。

It's as simple as that.

就這麼簡單。

Yes.

是的。

I would -- long term, I would expect service to be a significant revenue item and to be a positive margin contributor.

我會 - 從長遠來看，我希望服務成為一項重要的收入項目，並成為一個積極的利潤率貢獻者。

And it's going to be a function of our fleet size.

這將取決於我們的機隊規模。

And age.

和年齡。

Yes.

是的。

And age.

和年齡。

Essentially...

本質上...

There are a lot of cars under warranty now.

現在有很多車在保修期內。

Yes.

是的。

No.

不。

Exactly, under warranty.

沒錯，在保修期內。

It's like there's a lot of stuff that's under warranty.

好像有很多東西在保修期內。

But as the warranty expires, so there's like non-warranty items.

但由於保修期滿，所以就有了非保修項目之類的。

Then we expect service to have positive gross margin.

然後我們預計服務將有正的毛利率。

Yes.

是的。

And that also includes our used car sales.

這也包括我們的二手車銷售。

Yes, good point.

是的，好點。

And our used car sales is continuing to grow, and they have a healthy margin.

而且我們的二手車銷量正在持續增長，而且它們的利潤率很高。

And so that overall business for mature companies is, in some cases, more profitable than new product sales.

因此，在某些情況下，成熟公司的整體業務比新產品銷售更有利可圖。

I'm not just talking about OEMs, auto OEMs.

我不只是在談論原始設備製造商、汽車原始設備製造商。

And we are at the early stage of our growth here.

我們在這里處於發展的早期階段。

And as our fleet size grows, there are just so many opportunities in that business that it's a matter of time, as I'll simply say.

隨著我們機隊規模的擴大，該業務的機會如此之多，這只是時間問題，我會簡單地說。

Yes.

是的。

And on the battery cost, there was a question.

關於電池成本，有一個問題。

Well, that is a key sort of competitive metric.

嗯，這是一種關鍵的競爭指標。

So I think it's safe to say we're much better than anyone else by a lot.

所以我認為可以肯定地說我們比其他任何人都好很多。

But we prefer not to give a precise number.

但我們不願給出準確的數字。

Our final question comes from Phil LeBeau with CNBC TV.

我們的最後一個問題來自 CNBC TV 的 Phil LeBeau。

Elon, quick question.

埃隆，快速提問。

In terms of as the federal tax credit seems to be phased out as your sales cross over the threshold, what kind of an impact have you guys modeled into how much that might slow down potential sales?

隨著您的銷售額超過門檻，聯邦稅收抵免似乎被逐步取消，你們模擬了什麼樣的影響可能會減緩潛在銷售？

We don't expect this to result in -- I mean, the sales tax -- or the tax incentive in the U.S. drops in half in this quarter.

我們預計這不會導致 - 我的意思是，銷售稅 - 或美國的稅收優惠在本季度下降一半。

But then we also start shipping to Europe and then start shipping to Asia.

但隨後我們也開始運送到歐洲，然後開始運送到亞洲。

And we certainly do not expect anything that would cause our production to drop below, let's say, a minimum of 5,000 cars a week.

我們當然不希望有任何事情會導致我們的產量下降到每周至少 5,000 輛汽車以下。

But in terms of in the United States, do you expect that it'll slow down demand and sales within the U.S.?

但就美國而言，您是否認為這會減緩美國國內的需求和銷售？

I think that as we're able to offer lower-cost versions of the car, that we would expect demand to sustain in the U.S. But I want to be clear.

我認為，由於我們能夠提供低成本版本的汽車，我們預計美國的需求將持續下去。但我想明確一點。

It's not like we're holding back this lower-cost version of the car intentionally.

這並不是我們故意阻止這款低成本版本的汽車。

It's just like with -- it's like is there anything we can do to provide a lower-cost car now, and that's where we came up with the depopulated long-range pack just like basically taking -- having a long-range pack with fewer cells.

這就像 - 就像我們現在可以做些什麼來提供更低成本的汽車，這就是我們想出人口減少的遠程包，就像基本上採取一樣 - 擁有更少的遠程包細胞。

Like we really care about providing the end customer with the most affordable car that we can possibly produce, the best viability.

就像我們真正關心為最終客戶提供我們可能生產的最實惠的汽車，最好的可行性一樣。

And if we could do the smaller pack now, we absolutely would.

如果我們現在可以做更小的包裝，我們絕對會的。

It's just going to take us, I don't know, at least 3 months to get the production going and you got to [spool up] production.

我不知道，這至少需要我們 3 個月的時間才能開始製作，然後你必須 [spool up] 製作。

And that production is going to go to -- we're going to make the packs.

並且該產品將用於-我們將製作包裝。

The packs are going to go to the vehicle factory.

包裝將運往車輛工廠。

We've got the cars that we're going to get delivered to customers.

我們已經有了要交付給客戶的汽車。

So that's why customers probably see the smaller battery pack on the order of like March or something, or February maybe.

這就是為什麼客戶可能會在 3 月左右或 2 月左右看到較小的電池組。

It's something on that order.

這是按順序排列的。

And one thing -- these do trigger points that are worth bearing in mind.

還有一件事——這些觸發點確實值得牢記。

As our quarterly letter indicates, the Model 3 has the -- is the most efficient energy per mile electric vehicle out there.

正如我們的季度信函所示，Model 3 擁有 - 是目前每英里最高效的電動汽車。

It's got the best efficiency.

它的效率最高。

So we've got the best in terms of miles or kilometers per kilowatt hour, and we also have the lowest cost per kilowatt hour.

因此，我們的每千瓦時英里數或公里數是最好的，而且每千瓦時的成本也是最低的。

This makes it very difficult for other companies to compete with Tesla because we're the most efficient car and the lowest-cost batteries.

這使得其他公司很難與特斯拉競爭，因為我們是效率最高的汽車和成本最低的電池。

So I do encourage our competitors to really make a huge investment.

因此，我確實鼓勵我們的競爭對手真正進行巨額投資。

And we've been saying that for a long time.

我們已經說了很長時間了。

And then they are only in this competitive disadvantage because they didn't -- we try to help them as much as we could and they didn't want to take our help.

然後他們只是處於這種競爭劣勢，因為他們沒有——我們盡力幫助他們，他們不想接受我們的幫助。

So they can use all our patents for free.

所以他們可以免費使用我們所有的專利。

We have -- they can use our Supercharger network if they can just have an adapter for our -- connector or something.

我們有 - 他們可以使用我們的增壓器網絡，如果他們可以為我們的 - 連接器或其他東西提供適配器。

We want to be as helpful as possible to the rest of the industry.

我們希望盡可能地幫助行業的其他人。

The fact of the matter is we made the investment in the Gigafactory and other companies didn't.

事實上，我們對 Gigafactory 進行了投資，而其他公司沒有。

And we put a lot of effort into having extremely efficient cars, which are having the most efficient powertrains, and the other companies didn't.

我們付出了很多努力來打造效率極高的汽車，這些汽車擁有最高效的動力系統，而其他公司卻沒有。

But I'm sure they will over time.

但我相信他們會隨著時間的推移。

But that's what has put us in quite a strong competitive advantage -- competitive position right now.

但這就是使我們處於相當強大的競爭優勢——現在的競爭地位的原因。

Fantastic.

極好的。

I think that's all we have time for today.

我想這就是我們今天的全部時間。

Sorry, go ahead.

對不起，繼續。

I just want to add a comment in closing.

我只想在結束時添加評論。

And Elon started with it, and I wanted to say that from myself personally here.

埃隆從它開始，我想從我自己這裡說出來。

I want to personally thank all the Tesla employees who worked incredibly hard this quarter and in prior quarters in each and every part of our business.

我要親自感謝所有特斯拉員工，他們在本季度和前幾個季度在我們業務的各個方面都付出了極大的努力。

Our results really are the -- are a reflection of the execution done in the company -- done by the company and the passion that our employees have to deliver such results despite all odds.

我們的結果確實是 - 反映了公司的執行情況 - 由公司完成，以及我們的員工必須不顧一切地交付這樣的結果的熱情。

And I also want to thank all our customers and all our investors who believed in us and our product and our vision.

我還要感謝所有相信我們以及我們的產品和願景的客戶和投資者。

All of that leading the world's transition to sustainable energy.

所有這些都引領著世界向可持續能源的過渡。

So thank you from my side.

所以從我這邊謝謝你。

Do you want to add anything?

你想添加什麼嗎？

No, I'm good.

不，我很好。

Okay.

好的。

Anybody have any additional comments or anything?

任何人有任何額外的意見或什麼？

All right.

好的。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

And yes, look forward to the next call.

是的，期待下一個電話。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Goodbye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了程序。

You may all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

你們都可以斷開連接，度過美好的一天。