特斯拉 (TSLA) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Q3 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎收看特斯拉 2018 年第三季財務業績及問答網路直播。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Viecha, you may begin.

現在我謹向大家介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係高級總監馬丁·維查先生。維查先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2018 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Deepak Ahuja and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

謝謝你，雪莉，大家下午好。歡迎參加特斯拉2018年第三季問答網路直播。今天與我一同出席的有伊隆馬斯克、J.B. Straubel、Deepak Ahuja 以及其他一些高階主管。我們的第三季業績報告於下午1點左右公佈。我們在與本次網路直播相同的連結發布的更新信中註明了太平洋時間。

During our call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並發表前瞻性聲明。這些評論是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能與預期有重大差異，包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些風險和不確定因素。（操作說明）

But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

但在進入問答環節之前，伊隆先有一些開場白。埃隆？

Thanks, Martin. So I'll make some opening remarks, and then we're going to talk about vehicle safety, Autopilot and factory safety. And we have a number of people from Tesla here to elaborate on that. So I think there's just a lot going on that you would find interesting.

謝謝你，馬丁。那我先做些開場白，然後我們將討論車輛安全、自動駕駛和工廠安全。我們也邀請了幾位來自特斯拉的人士來詳細闡述這一點。所以我覺得這裡發生了很多你會感興趣的事。

But I want to start by thanking all of our customers, employees and shareholders. This was an incredibly historic quarter for Tesla. Model 3 production stabilized. We delivered a total of 84,000 vehicles globally, which is more than 80% of vehicles that we delivered in all of 2017. In fact, we delivered more cars in this quarter than we did in all of 2016 in a single quarter.

但我首先要感謝我們所有的客戶、員工和股東。對特斯拉來說，這是一個具有歷史意義的季度。Model 3 的生產已趨於穩定。我們在全球範圍內共交付了 84,000 輛汽車，佔 2017 年全年交付汽車總數的 80% 以上。事實上，我們本季交付的汽車數量比 2016 年整個季度單季的交付量還要多。

Model 3 became the best-selling car in the U.S. in terms of revenue and the third best-selling car in terms of volume. We saw higher revenues and significantly better profitability in our energy business. I mean, I think with solar, it may have been the best quarter ever for solar. We achieved GAAP net income of over $300 million, increased cash and equivalents by $731 million and achieved a greater than 20% gross margin for Model 3.

Model 3 成為美國收入最高的車，也是銷售量第三高的車款。我們的能源業務收入更高，獲利能力也顯著提高。我的意思是，我認為就太陽能而言，這可能是太陽能產業有史以來表現最好的季度。我們實現了超過 3 億美元的 GAAP 淨收入，現金及等價物增加了 7.31 億美元，而 Model 3 的毛利率超過了 20%。

And moreover, we expect to again have positive net income and cash flow in Q4. And I believe our aspiration is something that will be for all quarters going forward. I think we can actually be positive cash flow and profitable for all quarters going forward, leaving aside the quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment but -- for example, in Q1 next year. But I think even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter.

此外，我們預計第四季將再次實現正淨收入和正現金流。我相信，我們的願景將是未來各方共同的願景。我認為，除了可能需要重大償還的季度（例如明年第一季）之外，我們實際上可以在未來的每個季度都實現正現金流和盈利。但我認為即使在第一季度，到季度末我們的現金流也能大致持平。

This quarter was made possible by the incredible execution of our employees across the board, from sales, production, delivery, service, energy, engineering, finance and all of our G&A teams. Really every part of the business executed incredibly well. I want to thank everyone again for their incredibly hard work. I especially want to thank customers who helped -- it's like I've never even heard of this -- maybe this has happened before, but I've never heard of a case where a company's customers actually cared about the future of the company so much that they volunteered their time to help the company succeed. I think that's amazing. Just -- you don't see that anywhere. So yes, really, chokes me up, actually.

本季業績的成功歸功於我們全體員工的出色執行，包括銷售、生產、交付、服務、能源、工程、財務以及所有行政管理團隊。公司各環節都執行得非常出色。我要再次感謝大家付出的巨大努力。我特別要感謝那些提供幫助的客戶——我以前從未聽說過這樣的事——也許以前發生過，但我從未聽說過一家公司的客戶如此關心公司的未來，以至於自願抽出時間幫助公司取得成功。我覺得這太棒了。就是——你根本看不到這種情況。是的，真的，這讓我很哽咽。

This quarter, we started rolling out Version 9 of our software, which is the biggest software upgrade in 3 years. And Model 3 received a 5-star safety rating in every category and subcategory. I think that's the lowest probability of injury of any car that the U.S. government's ever tested.

本季度，我們開始推出軟體第 9 版，這是 3 年來最大的軟體升級。Model 3 在所有類別和子類別中都獲得了 5 星安全評級。我認為這是美國政府測試過的所有汽車中，造成人員受傷機率最低的。

Looking ahead, we expect to produce and sell even more Model 3s in Q4 and expect that trend to continue into Q1. And we're excited to bring Model 3 to Europe and China early next year given that the market for midsized premium sedans in those regions is even larger than in North America.

展望未來，我們預計第四季將生產和銷售更多 Model 3，並預計這一趨勢將延續到第一季。鑑於歐洲和中國的中型豪華轎車市場比北美市場更大，我們很高興能在明年初將 Model 3 帶到歐洲和中國。

I said before that we must prove that Tesla can be sustainably profitable. This quarter was an important step towards that, and I'm incredibly excited about what lies ahead. So this is -- yes, just so, so proud of the Tesla team and our customers. Really appreciate the support of our long-term shareholders. And yes, I just want to say on behalf of the Tesla team, we're just super appreciative of your support through what has actually been a very difficult time.

我之前說過，我們必須證明特斯拉能夠持續獲利。本季是朝著這個目標邁出的重要一步，我對未來充滿期待。所以，是的，我為特斯拉團隊和我們的客戶感到無比自豪。非常感謝各位長期股東的支持。是的，我謹代表特斯拉團隊表示，我們非常感謝你們在這段非常艱難的時期給予的支持。

All right. Now let's move to -- let's start off with vehicle safety. Madan, who's our lead vehicle safety engineer, been with the company for a long time. Madan, how many years has it been that we've been working together?

好的。現在我們來談談——先從車輛安全開始。馬丹是我們公司的首席車輛安全工程師，他在公司工作了很長時間。馬丹，我們一起工作多少年了？

10 years.

10年。

Eight?

八？

10 years.

10年。

10 years. Wow, so yes, I've been working with Madan for 10 years. And we've had so many conversations on vehicle safety. Wow. And you know what, the -- we're really going to try to go the extra mile with vehicle safety, not just -- in fact, there's a series of government-mandated tests, but what some companies do is they game the system. So they know where the side pole impact is going to be. They strengthen it right in that position. At Tesla, we're like, "Okay, what is the weakest point in the car? Let us test it at that position." So the actual safety is not fully captured in the tests because we anti-game the system. Madan, if you...

10年。哇，是的，我和馬丹共事已經10年了。我們已經就車輛安全問題進行了多次討論。哇。你知道嗎，我們真的要努力在車輛安全方面做得更好，不僅僅是——事實上，有一系列政府強制規定的測試，但有些公司卻鑽空子。所以他們知道側桿的撞擊點在哪裡。他們正好在那個位置加強了它。在特斯拉，我們會想：“好吧，這輛車最薄弱的環節是什麼？”讓我們在這個位置進行測試。 」因此，實際的安全性並沒有在測試中得到充分體現，因為我們人為地破壞了系統。馬丹，如果你…

Thank you, Elon. Just to give you a very quick background about myself. So like I said, joined Tesla 10 years. I'm extremely very happy to mention I'm working with an extraordinary set of very passionate and very hard-working individuals, and that essentially shows in our product. So that's very important for us.

謝謝你，埃隆。簡單介紹一下我自己。正如我所說，我加入特斯拉已經10年了。我非常高興地告訴大家，我正在與一群充滿熱情、勤奮努力的傑出人士共事，而這一點也充分體現在我們的產品中。所以這對我們來說非常重要。

And also important is our principal mission statement on safety because what we want to do is safety has been -- is probably the important factor for our vehicle. It's not just for electrical vehicle. Any vehicle, period. And that fundamentally differentiates us, so -- which essentially helps us to keep adding new features and new safety technology. And that's very important and that shows in Model 3. Just the things that we have.

此外，我們關於安全的主要使命宣言也很重要，因為我們想要做的就是確保安全——這可能是我們車輛最重要的因素。它不僅適用於電動車。任何車輛，就這麼簡單。而這正是我們與眾不同的地方——這也有助於我們不斷添加新功能和新的安全技術。這點非常重要，在模型 3 中也體現得淋漓盡致。這就是我們所擁有的。

Also the fact that we have electric vehicle, the design and architecture uses a fundamental benefit over traditional vehicles. And that takes care of, for example, whether you have a block of engine in the front where we can work with using pretty much open architecture in the front. And the whole fact that you have all the electrical and high voltage and motors and all of that almost below the central gravity of the vehicle, it's the lowest probability of reduced or lower risk, and that significantly benefits.

此外，電動車的設計和架構也使其比傳統汽車具有根本性的優勢。例如，這就解決了前端是否有一個引擎模組，我們可以利用前端幾乎完全開放的架構來操作的問題。而所有電氣元件、高壓電、馬達等等都位於車輛重心下方，這大大降低了風險，從而帶來了顯著的好處。

Yes. I think architecturally, we have Newton on our side. And having Isaac Newton on your side is definitely the way to go.

是的。我認為從建築的角度來看，我們有牛頓的理論作為支撐。有艾薩克·牛頓站在你這邊絕對是明智之舉。

Right, exactly. So in the latest series of tests, I would like to specifically talk about Model 3. NHTSA did a series of tests, actually 4 tests, for 1 frontal, 2 side and 1 rollover test. And if you look at -- we've been calculating how can we distinguish within the 5 star. There are so many vehicles that already get 5 star. And if you look at within the 5 star...

對，正是如此。所以，在最新的一系列測試中，我想特別談談 Model 3。美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 進行了一系列測試，實際上是 4 次測試，包括 1 次正面碰撞測試、2 次側面碰撞測試和 1 次翻滾測試。如果你仔細觀察——我們一直在計算如何區分五星級產品。已經有很多車獲得五星級好評了。如果你看看五星級餐廳…

That is not all the same. Not all the same.

這並非完全相同。並非完全相同。

Yes, exactly. So if you look at there, the tricks we came up with, which is a part of U.S. NCAP rating itself, as a lowest probability of injury, Model 3 has the lowest. And just to give you a context, there are a total of 900-plus vehicles since 2011 which have been rated. So the fact that Model 3 is the best among all the 943 to be exact. So that speaks to value.

是的，正是如此。所以如果你看一下，我們想出的辦法，也就是美國 NCAP 評級的一部分，作為最低受傷機率，Model 3 的受傷機率最低。為了讓大家有個概念，自 2011 年以來，共有 900 多輛汽車接受了評級。所以，Model 3 是所有 943 年車型中最好的，確切地說。這體現了價值。

And I'm very happy to say that Model 3 has achieved -- we are not stopping right now. What we would like to do next is how we can make use of the active safety and Autopilot features and make it even more improvement so the next area that we're focusing on, how to integrate active and passive safety. That's our next area of challenge, which we will improve for sure.

我很高興地說，Model 3 已經取得了成功——但我們現在不會就此止步。接下來我們想做的是如何利用主動安全和自動駕駛功能，並使其進一步改進，因此我們下一個關注的領域是如何結合主動安全和被動安全。這是我們接下來要面臨的挑戰，我們一定會改進的。

Yes. And so worth noting that the safety extends to not just people in car but also pedestrians.

是的。因此值得注意的是，安全保障不僅適用於車內人員，也適用於行人。

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. So not having a big engine block in the front of the car is really helpful so -- because if you -- if the car were to hit a pedestrian, we'll get to active safety next because the best thing is actually not just to hit car or a pedestrian. The fact that the hood can condense so far in is really helpful because it ends up being like a sort of -- sort of like a trampoline or like -- it has -- you just -- you don't have a rock underneath this. That's very helpful.

是的。所以，車頭沒有大型引擎缸體真的很有幫助，因為如果——如果汽車撞到行人，我們接下來會談到主動安全，因為最好的情況實際上不僅僅是撞到汽車或行人。引擎蓋能將水汽凝結得這麼深，這真的很有幫助，因為它最終就像——就像蹦床一樣——它——你——它下面沒有石頭。那很有幫助。

So it's helpful for pedestrian safety and for the safety of people in the car. And then even if you have like a head-on collision with another car, the extended sort of crumple zone of a Tesla Model S, X or 3 is helpful to the people in the Tesla and the people in the other car. So it's not just for people in the car.

所以它對行人安全和車內人員的安全都有幫助。即使與另一輛車發生正面碰撞，特斯拉 Model S、X 或 3 的加長型碰撞緩衝區也能幫助特斯拉車內人員和另一輛車內部人員。所以它不僅適用於車內的人。

I'd like to add one item, which is essentially how we look at the real-world safety, which has always been an important element for Elon. So if you look at the -- our blog post, we showed how we handled the central fall impact in the front hood. By the way, that's not part of NCAP rating. Just to show how we go over and above the NCAP rating to make sure it's real world safety. That's very important for us.

我想補充一點，這主要關乎我們如何看待現實世界的安全問題，而安全問題一直是伊隆非常重視的因素。所以，如果你看看我們的部落格文章，你會發現我們展示了我們如何處理前引擎蓋上的中心跌落衝擊。順便說一下，這不屬於NCAP評級的一部分。這只是為了說明我們如何超越 NCAP 評級，確保其在現實世界中的安全性。這對我們來說非常重要。

Exactly. That's what I mean by like anti-game the system, like what is the worst way that the car could be hit, not just sort of strength and where we know the test will happen and that kind of thing. So obviously, we're all in these cars, our friends are in these cars, family is in the car, so we care a great deal about safety. A lot of people think safety is boring, but not Tesla. So thanks, Madan.

確切地。這就是我所說的反作弊，例如考慮汽車可能被撞擊的最壞方式是什麼，而不僅僅是強度，以及我們知道測試將在哪裡進行等等。很顯然，我們都坐在這些車裡，我們的朋友坐在這些車裡，家人也坐在這些車裡，所以我們非常重視安全。很多人認為安全很無聊，但特斯拉不這麼認為。謝謝你，馬丹。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for your decade of hard work and the rest of Tesla safety team. And with that, let's move on to Autopilot and yes, just give an update on sort of Autopilot software, AI and hardware. Yes.

感謝您和特斯拉安全團隊其他成員十年來的辛勤工作。接下來，我們來談談自動駕駛功能，是的，簡單介紹一下自動駕駛軟體、人工智慧和硬體的最新進展。是的。

That's great. This is Stuart Bowers. We will soon begin to roll out the team's most advanced Autopilot feature ever, Navigate on Autopilot. In our last release, we launched a new set of neural networks that combined together, provide a view of everything happening around the car.

那太棒了。這是斯圖爾特·鮑爾斯。我們很快就會開始推出團隊迄今為止最先進的自動駕駛功能—自動駕駛導航。在上一個版本中，我們推出了一組新的神經網絡，這些網絡結合起來，可以提供車輛周圍發生的一切情況的視圖。

With Navigate on Autopilot, we'll use information to understand exactly where the car is on the highway system and to automatically change lanes, handle forks and take high-curvature exits to follow a nav route. Initially, it will require drivers to confirm lane changes using the turn signal before the car moves into an adjacent lane. Future versions will allow customers to waive the confirmation requirement if they choose to.

透過自動駕駛導航功能，我們將利用相關資訊準確了解車輛在高速公路系統中的位置，並自動變換車道、處理岔路口和駛入高彎道出口，以跟隨導航路線。最初，駕駛員需要使用方向燈確認變換車道，然後車輛才能駛入相鄰車道。未來的版本將允許客戶自行選擇是否放棄確認要求。

One area that I'm personally really excited to build on with this improvement is active safety. With the advancement in neural networks covering 360 degrees of view around our car, we can provide a level of constant vigilance that humans just can't. Ultimately, this should allow us to warn, even intervene, for an enormous percentage of modern accidents and to ship these improvements as software upgrades to our existing customers.

我個人非常期待透過這項改進來提升主動安全性能。隨著神經網路技術的進步，我們可以對汽車周圍 360 度的視野進行監控，從而提供人類無法企及的持續警覺性。最終，這將使我們能夠對絕大多數現代事故發出警告，甚至進行幹預，並將這些改進作為軟體升級提供給我們的現有客戶。

And we have a lot of -- we see this all the time in the data where the car will do an automatic braking event and save a pedestrian or another car from impact. This happens all the time.

我們經常在數據中看到這種情況：汽車會自動煞車，以避免行人或其他車輛受到撞擊。這種情況經常發生。

All the time.

一直如此。

Yes. All the time. Essentially every day. So great [preview].

是的。一直如此。幾乎每天都是如此。預覽效果很棒。

Yes. The team's done incredible work here. And by bringing more of the cameras around the car, we can detect things as they come toward us, not just directly in front of us.

是的。團隊在這裡完成了非常出色的工作。透過在車周圍安裝更多攝影機，我們可以偵測到朝向我們靠近的物體，而不僅僅是正前方的物體。

Yes.

是的。

Hi, this is Pete Bannon. The Hardware 3 design is continuing to move along. Over the last quarter, we've completed qualification of the silicon, qualification of the board. We started the manufacturing line and qualification of the manufacturing line. We've been validating the provisioning close in the factory. We've built test versions of Model S, X and 3 in the factory to validate all the fit and finish all the parts and all the provisioning close. So we still have a lot of work to do, and the team's doing a great job. And we're still on track to have it ready to go by the end of Q1.

大家好，我是皮特班農。硬體 3 的設計工作正在持續推進。上個季度，我們完成了晶片的認證和電路板的認證。我們啟動了生產線並進行了生產線的驗證工作。我們一直在工廠驗證配置是否正常。我們在工廠裡製造了 Model S、X 和 3 的測試版本，以驗證所有零件的組裝和做工以及所有供應是否齊全。所以我們還有很多工作要做，團隊做得非常好。我們仍然預計在第一季末完成準備工作。

Great. And that will be roughly 1,000% increase in thrust and capability compared to the current hardware. And so it's obviously a giant improvement. Despite being about the -- it costs about the same, cost volume, and product consumption are approximately the same as the current hardware. But it's a tenfold improvements in frames per second. Yes. And improved redundancy as well.

偉大的。與現有硬體相比，推力和性能將提高約 1000%。所以這顯然是一個巨大的進步。儘管價格差不多——成本、成本量和產品消耗量與目前的硬體大致相同。但幀速率提高了十倍。是的。而且冗餘度也得到了提升。

But very importantly, very important to emphasize is that the only -- the thing that needs to change between the cars produced today and the cars that are produced in the second quarter of next year is swapping out the Autopilot computer. And this is a simple change that takes place in half an hour in service to upgrade the computer. And anyone will be able to upgrade their computer to full Self-Driving capability -- upgrade their car to full Self-Driving capability with a simple service visit.

但非常重要的是，需要強調的是，今天生產的汽車和明年第二季生產的汽車之間唯一需要改變的是更換自動駕駛電腦。這是在服務過程中進行的簡單的更改，只需半小時即可完成電腦升級。任何人都可以透過簡單的服務來訪問，將自己的電腦升級到完全自動駕駛功能——將自己的汽車升級到完全自動駕駛功能。

So we expect all cars with the Hardware 2 sensor suite, basically anything made in the last roughly 2 years will be upgradable to full Self-Driving.

因此我們預計所有配備硬體 2 感測器套件的汽車，基本上是過去兩年內生產的所有汽車，都將可以升級到完全自動駕駛。

Yes. In fact, a lot of the cars we're using for testing today have, in fact, been upgraded from Hardware 2.

是的。事實上，我們今天用於測試的許多汽車實際上都是從硬體 2 升級而來的。

Right. So it's very important to emphasize like people shouldn't -- it's like -- it seems like people want to wait until that comes out, but there's no need to wait until that comes out because it's just a very simple plug-and-play change to get the full Self-Driving. And anyone who's paid for the full Self-Driving option will just get it done for free. And anyone who still wants to order full Self-Driving at this point, it's just an off-menu item. You can still order it, but we took it off the order -- menu just because there are -- it was really creating a lot of friction in the sales process and people didn't understand the difference between Enhanced Autopilot and full Self-Driving.

正確的。所以，強調這一點非常重要，就像人們不應該——好像——人們想等到那個產品上市，但沒有必要等到那個產品上市，因為只需進行非常簡單的即插即用更改即可獲得完整的自動駕駛功能。而那些已經付費購買了完整自動駕駛選項的用戶，將可以免費享受這項服務。目前，任何仍然想要訂購完全自動駕駛服務的人，都只能選擇菜單上沒有的選項了。您仍然可以訂購，但我們已經將其從菜單中移除，因為菜單上確實存在很多問題——這在銷售過程中造成了很大的摩擦，人們不理解增強型自動駕駛和完全自動駕駛之間的區別。

So just to simplify the order process, we took that off. But anyone who asks for it can certainly get it. And it really ends up being a discount on future capability. But to be clear, there's definitely no need to wait until Q2 to order a car. It's -- we want to make it just a completely seamless process. So there's no advantage to ordering now versus Q2. Andrej, do you want to...

為了簡化訂購流程，我們取消了這項功能。但只要有人提出要求，就一定能得到它。而這其實相當於對未來能力的一種折扣。但要明確說明的是，絕對沒有必要等到第二季才能訂購汽車。我們希望把它變成一個完全無縫的過程。所以現在訂購和第二季訂購相比沒有任何優勢。安德烈，你想…

Yes. Thanks. Hi, everyone. I'm Andrej Karpathy, I'm the Director of AI here at Tesla. And my team trains all the neural networks that analyze the images streaming in from the all the cameras for the Autopilot. For example, these neural networks identify cars, lane lines, traffic signs and so on.

是的。謝謝。大家好。我是安德烈‧卡帕西，我是特斯拉公司的人工智慧總監。我的團隊負責訓練所有神經網絡，這些網絡用於分析自動駕駛系統所有攝影機傳輸的影像流。例如，這些神經網路可以識別汽車、車道線、交通標誌等等。

The team is incredibly excited about the upcoming upgrade for the Autopilot computer, which Pete briefly talked about. This upgrade allows us to not just run the current neural networks faster. But more importantly, it will allow us to deploy much larger, computationally more expensive networks to the fleet.

團隊對即將到來的自動駕駛電腦升級感到無比興奮，皮特也簡要地談到了這一點。這次升級不僅可以讓我們更快地運行現有的神經網路。但更重要的是，它將使我們能夠向艦隊部署規模更大、計算成本更高的網路。

The reason this is important is that it is a common finding in the industry, and that we see this as well, is that as you make networks bigger by adding more neurons, the accuracy of all their predictions increases with the added capacity. So in other words, we are currently at a place where we've trained large neural networks that work very well but we are not able to deploy them to the fleet due to computational constraints.

之所以說這很重要，是因為這是業界普遍發現的現象，我們也觀察到，隨著透過增加神經元數量來擴大網路規模，所有預測的準確性都會隨著容量的增加而提高。換句話說，我們目前的情況是，我們已經訓練出了運作良好的大型神經網絡，但由於運算能力的限制，我們無法將它們部署到艦隊中。

So all of this will change with the next iteration of the hardware, and it's a massive step improvement in the compute capability. And the team is incredibly excited to get these networks out there.

因此，隨著下一代硬體的推出，這一切都將改變，運算能力也將得到巨大的提升。團隊非常興奮能夠推出這些網路。

Great. Thank you. And I've said this before, but I think -- let's talk about how we look at the longer-term future. We absolutely see the future as kind of -- as sort of shared electric autonomy so that you'll be able to do ride-hailing or share your car in any way in a sort of long-term model that's some combination of like Uber, Lyft and Airbnb. So there'll be Tesla-dedicated cars for ride-hailing, and there'll be -- and any customer will be able to share their car at will, just like you share your house in Airbnb.

偉大的。謝謝。我以前也說過，但我想——讓我們來談談我們如何看待更長遠的未來。我們絕對認為未來會是某種共享電動自動駕駛模式，這樣你就可以在某種長期模式下以某種方式進行叫車或共享汽車，這種模式可能是 Uber、Lyft 和 Airbnb 等平台的某種組合。因此，特斯拉將推出專門用於叫車的汽車，而且任何客戶都可以隨意共享自己的汽車，就像在 Airbnb 上分享自己的房子一樣。

So it's a combination of those 2 models. I think it's pretty obvious where things are headed long term. The advantage that Tesla will have is that we will have millions of cars in the field with full autonomy capability, and no one else will have that. So I think that puts us -- that will end up putting us in the strongest competitive position long term.

所以它是這兩種模型的結合體。我認為從長遠來看，事情的發展方向很明顯。特斯拉的優勢在於，我們將擁有數百萬輛具備完全自動駕駛能力的汽車，而其他任何公司都無法做到這一點。所以我認為這最終會讓我們——從長遠來看，這將使我們處於最強的競爭地位。

And then, Laurie, can you finish off with -- let's talk about factory safety. And thanks for the hard work of you and your team. And I think we've made great strides. And yes, please, please go ahead.

最後，勞裡，你能總結一下嗎——我們來談談工廠安全。感謝你和你的團隊的辛勤工作。我認為我們已經取得了長足的進步。是的，請繼續。

Yes, thanks. We have the safest cars made by the safest people. So it's an exciting time here at Tesla. All car and manufacturing factories have injuries. At Tesla, we have a commitment to 0 injuries. And our target is actually on good reporting. So we have good reporting of injuries, good reporting of near misses, good observations and lots of improvements. So to be the safest company in the world, we have to be committed to that. And everybody here is. So we're actually steadily getting there, and we're not going to stop until we're there.

好的，謝謝。我們擁有最安全的汽車，由最安全的人員製造。所以，特斯拉現在正處於一個令人興奮的時刻。所有汽車和製造業工廠都會發生工傷事故。在特斯拉，我們承諾實現零傷亡。我們的目標其實是做好報道。因此，我們對事故傷亡情況進行了良好的報告，對險情進行了良好的報告，觀察結果也很好，並且取得了許多改進。所以，為了成為世界上最安全的公司，我們必須致力於此。這裡每個人都是。所以，我們實際上正在穩步接近目標，而且在我們實現目標之前，我們絕對不會停止。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

So one...

所以，一個…

Yes. So I've been mentioning like -- for example, like we had like some sort of -- for example, like we do get these like quite unfair accusations. For example, one of them was like we were underreporting injuries. And it's worth noting that OSHA completed their investigation and concluded that we have not been doing anything of the sort.

是的。所以我一直在提到——例如，例如我們遇到了一些——例如，我們確實會受到一些相當不公平的指責。例如，其中一位批評者認為我們少報了傷勢。值得注意的是，美國職業安全與健康管理局 (OSHA) 已完成調查，並得出結論，我們並沒有做任何此類事情。

Correct. Correct. The company here had a 4-month long Cal/OSHA investigation. And it basically proves that we are recording properly and doing as we should be. So it's much different than what you would read about in the press.

正確的。正確的。這家公司曾接受加州職業安全與健康管理局 (Cal/OSHA) 長達 4 個月的調查。這基本上證明我們的錄音方式正確，我們做事也符合規範。所以這和你在媒體上看到的報導大不相同。

Yes, that is true.

是的，沒錯。

Yes, yes. I'm very proud of the team for that. It's a -- yes, one point I think people don't know is I've been here about a year now. Time flies when you're having so much fun.

是的，是的。我為團隊的表現感到非常自豪。是的──有一點我覺得大家可能不知道，我在這裡已經過了一年左右。玩得開心的時候，時間總是過得很快。

Feels like 5 years.

感覺像是過了五年。

I know. But when I joined, we were already really a fraction -- our injury rate was a fraction of what it had been when Toyota and GM ran the factory in the Numi days. So what we're all about is really continuing to make improvements from there.

我知道。但當我加入時，我們的傷病率已經大大降低了——與豐田和通用汽車在 Numi 時代經營工廠時相比，我們的傷病率只是很小的一部分。所以，我們所做的一切，就是在此基礎上繼續改進。

And what's also important is not to have serious injuries. And that's extremely rare here at Tesla. We have really strong focus on prevention and also using mitigating controls so that these types of injuries don't occur. I mean, most of the injuries that we have are muscular sprains and things like that.

同樣重要的是不要受重傷。這種情況在特斯拉極為罕見。我們非常重視預防，並採取緩解措施，以避免此類傷害的發生。我的意思是，我們大多數的傷勢都是肌肉扭傷之類的。

Yes. Essentially, it's muscle strain and getting scratched.

是的。本質上就是肌肉拉傷和擦傷。

Exactly.

確切地。

That's the most of the injuries here.

這是這裡大部分的傷病情況。

Yes, hand and finger cuts and sprains. So I kind of just want to break down a few things that my team has been working on, along with all the leaders here.

是的，手部和手指的割傷和扭傷。所以我想和大家一起，詳細介紹我的團隊以及各位領導一直在努力完成的一些工作。

First is people and engagement. So one of the first things is meeting with you, Elon. We meet with you on a regular basis. We meet with all the production leaders. So it's full on engagement on improving safety. We have built a really strong EHS team, the best and the brightest.

首先是人和參與度。所以，首要任務之一就是和你見面，伊隆。我們會定期與您會面。我們與所有生產負責人會面。因此，我們正在全力以赴地提高安全性。我們組了一支非常強大的EHS團隊，匯聚了最優秀、最聰明的人才。

We have -- and our EHS team is actually embedded into the line on the factory because we learn the process and we learn the people. You don't know how to improve unless you're out there, on the line, on the process, engaging with the associates, listening and learning from our associates. So we have really strong engagement, health and safety committees. We do find it, fix it walks. Our walker -- our leaders are out there walking and also looking for improvements.

我們有—而且我們的EHS團隊實際上已經融入工廠的生產線中，因為我們了解流程，也了解人員。只有當你真正置身一線，參與到生產過程中，與同事們互動交流，傾聽並學習同事們的經驗時，你才會知道如何改進。因此，我們擁有非常強大的員工參與、健康與安全委員會。我們找到了它，修好了它。我們的步行者－我們的領導者們都在戶外步行，同時也在尋找改進之處。

And actually, just this quarter, we had over 15,000 improvements. I mean, that's like amazing. So very, very excited about that.

事實上，僅本季度，我們就進行了超過 15,000 項改進。我的意思是，這簡直太不可思議了。我對此感到非常非常興奮。

We also look at risk reduction and -- in human performance. People are going to make mistakes, so we're going to design in so we fail safely. We have an early symptom intervention program. This is where we have industrial athletes go out on the line and work with our associates before anything happens. Like if you have a pain, let's work it out. Let's strengthen and really get our employees fit. So we're doing that.

我們也關注風險降低以及——在人類績效方面。人總是會犯錯，所以我們要設計一些機制，讓我們能夠安全地失敗。我們設有早期症狀幹預計劃。在這裡，我們會安排工業運動員到生產線上與我們的同事一起工作，在任何事情發生之前進行測試。如果你哪裡不舒服，我們一起來解決。讓我們加強員工體能，並真正提升員工的健康水準。所以我們正在這樣做。

We've also just opened a new and improved health clinic. So when injuries do occur, we get the absolute best care for our associates. And it's actually overseen by one of California's leading orthopedic surgeons. And we did that because most of our injuries, like we said, like 80%, 85%, are those sprains and strains. So now they get that best care here on site. And we have 24/7 care. It's actually staffed by 3 full-time doctors and nurses. And I'm really super happy with the care they're giving, and I think employees are as well. And the third...

我們還開設了一家全新升級的診所。所以，當發生工傷事故時，我們的員工能夠得到最好的照顧。實際上，該計畫由加州頂尖的骨科醫生之一負責監督。我們這樣做是因為我們的大部分傷病，就像我們說的，大約 80%、85% 都是扭傷和拉傷。所以現在他們可以在這裡得到最好的照顧。我們提供全天候24小時服務。實際上，這裡配備了3名全職醫生和護士。我對他們提供的照護非常滿意，我想員工們也一樣。第三點…

Yes. We're going to expand on that. So the -- yes, Tesla's sort of health clinic both at Fremont and at Giga, so that we have a really immediate, first-class health care available right on the spot when people need it. And this is not just for workplace. This is for workplace and non-workplace.

是的。我們將在此基礎上進行拓展。所以——是的，特斯拉在弗里蒙特和超級工廠都設有類似健康診所的地方，這樣我們就能在人們需要的時候提供真正即時的一流醫療保健服務。這不僅適用於工作場所。這適用於工作場所和非工作場所。

I know. That's super exciting. We're leading the world.

我知道。太令人興奮了！我們引領世界。

Yes. If you like have injury for any reason, then there's health care immediately on site.

是的。如果您因任何原因受傷，現場將立即提供醫療救治。

That's where we plan to go, exactly. And then finally, just being proactive because that's what we're about, innovation and proactive. I mean, we joined a national safety organization. We partner with many leading universities, including California Berkeley, Center for Occupational and Environmental Health. We do presentations there. We work with the automotive industry and do benchmarking all the time. We're always looking and bringing people in to look for things that we can do better and for new technology on innovation and safety.

這正是我們計劃要去的地方。最後，我們也要積極主動，因為這就是我們的宗旨：創新和積極主動。我的意思是，我們加入了一個國家安全組織。我們與許多一流大學建立了合作關係，包括加州大學柏克萊分校職業與環境健康中心。我們會在那裡做演講。我們與汽車產業合作，並一直進行標竿分析。我們一直在尋找並引進人才，以尋找我們可以做得更好的地方，以及創新和安全的新技術。

And with all of that, we have made improvements in our injury rates. We are more than 10% better year-over-year in our lost workdays and our days away. But the most important thing is we're also getting all those good engagement observations. They're moving up. So injuries down. Observations, engagements up. Thank you.

綜上所述，我們的受傷率有所改善。與去年相比，我們的工作日損失和缺勤天數減少了 10% 以上。但最重要的是，我們也獲得了所有這些良好的互動觀察。他們正在晉升。所以傷病減少了。觀察次數和參與度均上升。謝謝。

Right. Thank you. Thanks, Laurie. Yes, we'll provide regular updates on workplace safety. And yes, our goals is unequivocally to have the safest factories in the world where people look forward to going to work in the morning. So it's like -- yes, that's our goal.

正確的。謝謝。謝謝你，勞瑞。是的，我們會定期提供工作場所安全方面的最新資訊。是的，我們的目標毫無疑問是打造世界上最安全的工廠，讓員工們每天早上都期待著上班。所以，是的，這就是我們的目標。

All right? With that, we can move to questions.

好的？接下來，我們可以進入問答環節。

Cool. Well, thank you very much. Sherry, let's go to the first question please.

涼爽的。非常感謝。雪莉，我們先來看第一個問題吧。

Our first question comes from Dan Galves with Wolfe Research.

我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

It's really amazing to see this landmark quarter after covering the company for so long. And thanks for bringing some of your team on to the call. It's very interesting. My first question is about cell supply. There's been some noise about tight cell supply and sparks and tight labor supply. Like in the short term, could you just talk about whether demand is outpacing supply of battery cells? And kind of what's your plan for long-term expansion, including cell supply in China?

在長期關注這家公司之後，看到這個具有里程碑意義的季度真的令人驚嘆。感謝您讓團隊中的一些成員參加這次電話會議。這很有意思。我的第一個問題是關於細胞供應的。有傳言稱，電池供應緊張、火花四濺，以及勞動力供應短缺。就短期而言，您能否談談電池芯的需求是否超過了供應？那麼，你們的長期擴張計劃是什麼，包括在中國的電池供應？

J.B., do you want to take that?

J.B.，你想拿那個嗎？

Sure. I can speak to that. This is J.B. We have had a period where the supply was fairly tight for Model 3. But it did not really constrain the Model 3 production in any significant way.

當然。我可以就此發表看法。我是J.B.。我們之前經歷了一段Model 3供應相當緊張的時期。但這並沒有對Model 3的生產造成任何實質的限制。

Well, like for a week.

大概持續一周左右。

Yes. Maybe for a few days. Yes, the impact was larger felt on the energy products. And that's still somewhat tight. But we do -- as we pointed on previous discussions, we do have third-party supplies of energy cells. So that production can continue even independently of the Panasonic supply in sparks. So that's been very helpful. And that is expanding in future quarters. And also the Panasonic supply is expanding. The productivity of existing lines is continuing to improve with a lot of hard work from the engineering teams and just operational stability. And we continue to bring online new production lines. So even just in the last several weeks, we started out by getting another self-production line with Panasonic. And through the end of the year, there's another line coming on and then one shortly after that. So there's a steady increase in the total supply that should keep us ahead of even Model 3 growth and also should let us have a larger percentage of energy supply be sourced from Giga locally.

是的。或許幾天吧。是的，能源產品受到的影響更大。而且這個差距還是有點大。但是，正如我們在之前的討論中指出的那樣，我們確實有第三方能源電池供應。這樣即使鬆下公司斷電，生產也能繼續進行。這很有幫助。而且這種情況在未來幾季還會擴大。而且松下產品的供應也正在擴大。在工程團隊的辛勤努力和營運穩定性的共同作用下，現有生產線的生產效率不斷提高。我們將繼續推出新的生產線。所以就在最近幾週，我們開始與松下合作，建立另一條自有生產線。年底前還會有另一條生產線投入使用，之後不久還會有一條。因此，總供應量穩定成長，這將使我們的供應量甚至超過 Model 3 的成長量，也應該使我們能夠從本地的 Giga 獲得更大比例的能源供應。

Yes. We are making a pretty nutty amount of the world's lithium-ion batteries. And Martin, like, I think we're at 60% or something.

是的。我們生產的鋰離子電池數量相當驚人，佔世界總產量的很大一部分。馬丁說，我覺得我們已經完成了 60% 左右。

Yes. So at the moment, if you look at -- for example, for Q3, all electric vehicles made around the world, their total battery capacity was about 20 or 19 gigawatt hours. And what we produced in Q3 was about the same or a little bit higher.

是的。所以目前，例如，在第三季度，全世界生產的所有電動車的總電池容量約為 20 或 19 吉瓦時。第三季我們的產量與上一季基本持平或略高一些。

Okay.

好的。

So about half of the world's batteries, basically.

基本上，全球大約一半的電池都來自這裡。

Yes. Well, that's -- because we also source cells from Japan and elsewhere. Was that -- are you talking about just Giga or...

是的。那是因為我們也從日本和其他地方購買細胞。你說的是Giga嗎？還是…

So -- yes. So just the Giga itself is about 20. And on top of that, S and Xs, I don't know, another 4 or 5.

是的。所以光是 Giga 本身就要 20 美元左右。除此之外，還有 S 和 X，我不知道，大概還有 4 或 5 個吧。

Yes.

是的。

Got it. No, it's a huge advantage. Is there plans that you can talk about for cell supply in China? Will that be produced in China? I'm assuming so.

知道了。不，這是巨大的優勢。您能否談談在中國的電池供應方面有哪些計劃？該產品將在中國生產嗎？我猜是這樣。

Long term, it would be produced in China. Short term, we're not certain of the short-term situation. But long term, certainly.

從長遠來看，它將在中國生產。短期內，我們無法確定短期情勢。但從長遠來看，肯定是如此。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

I was very surprised in the numbers you reported today, your gross margin performance on the Model 3. So if I remember correctly, you were expecting more of a 15% type of margin for this quarter, and you actually did better than 20%. So can you take us through what improved, like faster and better than you had initially anticipated in the manufacturing line and where these improvements came from?

我對您今天公佈的數據，特別是Model 3的毛利率表現，感到非常驚訝。如果我沒記錯的話，您原本預計本季的毛利率在15%左右，而實際上您做到了超過20%。那麼，您能否詳細介紹一下生產線上哪些方面有所改進，例如速度更快、品質比您最初預期的要好，以及這些改進來自哪裡？

Deepak here. And Jerome and others, please feel free to join. Our improvements on the cost side were in every aspect of cost. So clearly, our manufacturing labor hours improved significantly. Our overall manufacturing cost dropped almost 30% sequentially, Q2 to Q3. We produced more volume. So we had better fixed cost absorption. We had far less scrap. Our yield on each of the lines across both factories improved significantly. And as we look forward, we see even more opportunities. We are going through this phase where we are now stabilizing production and the team can now intensely focus on cost optimization. And that trend will just continue in Q4. Yes.

我是迪帕克。傑羅姆和其他人，也請隨意加入。我們在成本方面的改進體現在成本的各個方面。顯然，我們的生產勞動時間得到了顯著改善。從第二季到第三季度，我們的整體製造成本較上季下降了近 30%。我們提高了產量。因此，我們的固定成本吸收能力更強了。我們的廢料少得多。兩家工廠每條生產線的產量都顯著提高了。展望未來，我們看到了更多機會。我們目前正處於生產穩定階段，團隊現在可以專注於成本優化。而且這一趨勢將在第四季持續下去。是的。

I think we're also being roughly on the conservative side when we predicted it. We said like 15% but we're being conservative...

我認為我們之前的預測也比較保守了。我們說大概15%，但還是保守估計吧…

Right. Our expectation was we would do better but we wanted to be conservative, you're right, in terms of our guidance that we gave for Q3. Yes.

正確的。我們原本預期會做得更好，但正如你所說，我們想保持保守，所以對第三季的業績預期也是如此。是的。

Okay. That's great. And then on -- as a quick follow-up, you've announced over the weekend like a mid-range car with smaller battery packs. And I was wondering, as you're looking at expanding, for example, the Model 3, I think about it as you had 2 options. One was to go -- grow and to keep what you're seeing at higher-end, higher-ASP car. And the other one was to go for a lower-cost car and stick to the U.S. So how did you decide the sequencing of these 2 things? Why is it lower car now and going abroad in the early next year?

好的。那太棒了。然後——作為後續報道，你們在周末宣布，這就像是一款配備較小電池組的中檔汽車。我想問的是，當您考慮擴大規模，例如擴大 Model 3 的規模時，我認為您有兩個選擇。一種方法是發展壯大，並保持你在高端、高平均售價汽車領域所看到的成果。另一個方案是選擇價格較低的汽車，並堅持在美國購買。那麼，你是如何決定這兩個方案的先後順序的呢？為什麼現在要降低汽車價格，並且計畫明年初出國？

Well, we're trying to provide the most affordable electric car options that we can. And since we just don't have the money to get to a $35,000 car right away, we thought this might be a way to offer it as an intermediate step. And that's really it. Yes, we expect to start producing a significant volume for Europe in January. And it obviously takes some time to ship. So deliveries, probably pretty significant deliveries in Europe, kind of in the late February, March time frame because the cars have to get all the way from California to a customer in Europe. And for us, cars only count as delivered if it reaches the end customer and all the paperwork is completed correctly. So it's the highest possible standard for considering a sale a sale. Yes.

我們正在努力提供最經濟實惠的電動車選擇。由於我們沒有足夠的資金立即購買價值 35,000 美元的汽車，我們認為這可能是提供這種過渡方案的一種方式。事情就是這樣。是的，我們預計從一月開始為歐洲市場生產大量產品。當然，發貨也需要一些時間。所以，交付，尤其是歐洲的交付，可能會在二月下旬到三月之間進行，因為這些汽車必須從加州一路運送到歐洲的客戶那裡。對我們來說，只有當車輛到達最終客戶手中並且所有文件都正確填寫完畢時，才算完成交付。所以這是判斷一筆交易是否真正構成交易的最高標準。是的。

And also to APAC, we start delivering cars.

同時，我們也開始向亞太地區交付汽車。

Yes. The -- we may or may not deliver cars in APAC in Q1 but certainly in Q2. It will be kind of borderline as to whether cars are delivered in APAC by the end of Q1. So I can't say it for certain. Definitely in Europe. But -- and then definitely in APAC in Q2. Yes.

是的。我們可能在第一季不會在亞太地區交付汽車，但肯定會在第二季交付。到第一季末，亞太地區的汽車能否交付還很難說。所以我無法給出確切的答案。肯定在歐洲。但是——而且在第二季亞太地區肯定會如此。是的。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

I guess just along those lines, you indicated that you're going to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year. Where would you like to see production in order to support that ramp overseas?

我猜您之前也提到過，您打算在明年年初將 Model 3 引入歐洲市場。為了支持海外產能的提升，您希望在哪裡進行生產？

Well, initially, production will occur -- I mean, these last next several months, all production is -- vehicle production will take place at our car plant in California.

嗯，最初，生產將會——我的意思是，接下來的幾個月，所有的生產——車輛生產都將在我們位於加州的汽車工廠進行。

Sorry, I meant to ask, where would you like to see the production rate on a weekly basis go to in order to support that ramp?

抱歉，我本來想問的是，為了支持產能爬坡，您希望每週的產量達到多少？

Yes. It's hard to predict with accuracy. The -- and there's also like all the tariff wars and everything. So long term, I'd like to say like we're not talking about like next quarter. So like what is global -- likely global demand for Model 3. It's probably in the order of -- anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million cars a year, let's say, good global demand for Model 3. I think it's something like, say, the 3 Series, that's around 0.5 million.

是的。很難準確預測。還有──以及所有的關稅戰等等。所以從長遠來看，我想說的不是下個季度。那麼，Model 3 的全球需求量大概是多少呢？大概在每年 50 萬到 100 萬輛之間，假設全球對 Model 3 的需求量不錯的話。我覺得這跟BMW 3 系列差不多，BMW 3 系列的年銷售量大概是 50 萬輛。

0.5 million.

50萬。

The BMW 3 Series is about 0.5 million a year globally. And generally, we find that we outcompete the BMW 3 Series quite well. So it seems like logical therefore that we will long term have a higher production -- or higher demand, maybe somewhere between kind of the BMW 3 Series and the Volkswagen Golf, which is about 1 million units a year. So yes, that's why I said anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million units a year, long term.

BMW3系在全球的年銷量約為50萬輛。總的來說，我們發現我們的產品在與BMW3系的競爭中表現相當出色。因此，從長遠來看，我們似乎有理由相信，產量會更高——或者需求會更高，可能介於BMW3系列和福斯高爾夫之間，後者的年產量約為100萬輛。所以，是的，這就是為什麼我說長期來看，每年產量在 50 萬到 100 萬台之間。

And you have to add new lines to support that? Or are you just going to continue to remove bottlenecks in the existing lines?

所以你需要添加新的程式碼行來支援這一點？還是說你們只是打算繼續消除現有生產線的瓶頸？

No. We're definitely going to do local production. In China, we're moving rapidly on that. So we're aiming to have Model 3 production for the China market, for the Greater China market, active certainly next year. It will be happening next year. But it will be done in a very capital-efficient manner, much more akin to the way we did General Assembly line 4 versus General Assembly line 3. And then we'll also have a factory in Europe long term because it's pretty silly to make cars in California and ship them all the way to Europe. That's far.

不。我們肯定會進行本地化生產。在中國，我們正在迅速推進這方面的工作。因此，我們的目標是明年開始在中國市場，也就是大中華區市場生產Model 3。這件事將於明年發生。但我們會以非常節約資本的方式進行，更類似於我們建造4號總裝線而不是3號總裝線的方式。而且從長遠來看，我們還會在歐洲建造一家工廠，因為在加州造車然後一路運到歐洲是很愚蠢的。那很遠。

Especially in high volumes.

尤其是在大批量生產的情況下。

Yes, exactly. Essentially, it's -- I'm not talking about S and X. I'm just talking about the 3. So S and X will continue to be made in California. I think probably exclusively here. For cars, we're trying to maximize affordability. It makes a lot of sense to produce those cars at least in the continent where they are consumed or bought.

是的，正是如此。本質上，我說的不是S和X，我只說3。所以S和X將繼續在加州生產。我覺得可能只有這裡才有。對於汽車，我們正在努力最大限度地降低成本。至少在汽車消費或購買的地區生產這些汽車是非常有意義的。

Our next question comes from George Galliers with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 George Galliers。

Maybe just following up on the previous question. Is the target still to produce 10,000 Model 3s a week in 3 months? And I think you mentioned in the past that once you got to run rate of around 5,000, you'd be better placed to assess what CapEx is required to get there. So as of today, do you have a better idea of what CapEx is required to get to that kind of level at 3 months?

也許只是對上一個問題的後續提問。三個月內每週生產1萬輛Model 3的目標依然不變？我認為你之前提到過，一旦運行速度達到 5000 左右，你就能更好地評估達到這個目標所需的資本支出。那麼截至目前，您是否更清楚地了解在 3 個月內達到那種水準所需的資本支出是多少？

I think we're not prepared to speak to that right now, except that it will be conservatively less than the money that we spent to get to 5,000 in the first place, like quite -- I think quite dramatically less. So like I'd probably see a path to like 7,000 units with Model 3 with really minimal CapEx.

我認為我們現在還不方便談論這個問題，但保守估計，它肯定會比我們最初達到 5000 人時花費的錢少得多，而且——我認為會少很多。所以我覺得Model 3的產量大概可以達到7000輛，而且資本支出少很多。

Very minimal.

非常少。

Yes. Very minimal to get to 7,000 a week. And then that's really just basically solving -- improving the uptime of the existing lines. And we can do the 7,000 a week. Yes, so -- and then it gets a little harder as you start to go above 7,000. We would need to at least bring lines down in Fremont for significant upgrades to get to 10k. But also just not -- we're not talking about massive amount of CapEx. But let's say like long term, it's -- again long term, it's -- predicting these on a quarter-by-quarter basis is very difficult because when you have an exponential growth rate like we do -- I mean, if look at Tesla's cumulative deliveries over time, it's like the cleanest exponential curve that I've ever seen. So -- but small movements in calendar time can look like a very large hit or miss one way or the other because it's such a steep curve. That's why I'm -- it's very tricky to predict things on a quarterly basis but a lot easier if you go out a year or so. Yes, I mean, it -- probably long term, it's at least sort of 7,000 to 10,000 cars from Fremont of Model 3 and then, I don't know, 5,000 to 8,000 in the rest of world, something like that. It's just a guess.

是的。只需很少的錢就能達到每週7000美元的目標。那麼，這實際上就是解決問題——提高現有線路的正常運行時間。我們每周可以完成7000件。是的，所以——當你超過 7000 分時，難度就會增加一些。我們至少需要降低弗里蒙特地區的線路負荷，才能進行重大升級，達到 10k 的水平。但也不盡然──我們說的不是巨額資本支出。但假設從長遠來看——再說一遍，從長遠來看——逐季度預測這些是非常困難的，因為當成長率像我們一樣呈指數級增長時——我的意思是，如果你看看特斯拉的累積交付量隨時間的變化，它就像我見過的最清晰的指數曲線。所以——但是日曆時間上的微小變動，看起來就像是朝著某個方向的巨大成功或失敗，因為它的曲線非常陡峭。這就是為什麼我認為——按季度預測事情非常棘手，但如果預測一年左右的時間就容易得多。是的，我的意思是，從長遠來看，弗里蒙特工廠至少會生產 7000 到 10000 輛 Model 3，然後，我不知道，世界其他地方會生產 5000 到 8000 輛，大概是這樣。這只是我的猜測。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up, in the letter, you do point out the size of the European market for premium midsized sedans is roughly twice that of the U.S. Could you also just maybe comment to what your expectations are for mix in Europe? Based off Model S and Model X, do you expect a richer mix in Europe versus the U.S.? Or is it fairly similar?

好的。另外，在信中您提到，歐洲高階中型轎車的市場規模大約是美國的兩倍。您能否也談談您對歐洲市場產品組合的預期？根據 Model S 和 Model X 的情況來看，你認為歐洲市場的車款組合會比美國市場更豐富嗎？或者它們非常相似？

We've given that 0 thought. I mean, this is like there's not -- I don't know, Martin, do you have anything to add?

我們根本沒考慮過這個問題。我的意思是，這就像沒有——我不知道，馬丁，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. All I'm aware of is that because of cold weather, probably all-wheel drive and long-battery range will be highly demanded in Europe. But apart from that -- I mean, we ultimately have to start selling the car to see what the demand is. So...

是的。我只知道，由於歐洲氣候寒冷，全輪驅動和長續航里程的汽車可能會非常受歡迎。但除此之外——我的意思是，我們最終還是要開始賣車，看看市場需求如何。所以...

Yes. I mean, it seems like it's likely to be comparable to -- if premium midsized sedan market is like twice as big in Europe, then it's likely there will be at least as much demand in Europe as in North America. Like that's a pretty safe bet. But our goal really is to make electric cars that everyone can afford, not just to sort of mine high option value cars. It's like if we could produce a $35,000 car today, we would do it. We need more work. There's more work to do before we can make a $35,000 car and have it be positive gross margin. I'm not -- we're probably less than 6 months from that, but that's our mission.

是的。我的意思是，這似乎可以與以下情況相提並論——如果歐洲的高級中型轎車市場規模是北美的兩倍，那麼歐洲的需求量很可能至少與北美一樣大。這幾乎是板上釘釘的事了。但我們的真正目標是製造人人都能負擔得起的電動車，而不僅僅是生產高配置價值的汽車。這就好比如果我們今天就能生產一輛價值 35,000 美元的汽車，我們也會去做。我們需要做更多的工作。在製造出售價 35,000 美元且毛利率為正的汽車之前，我們還有很多工作要做。我不是——我們可能離目標還有不到 6 個月的時間，但這就是我們的使命。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Maynard Um with Macquarie.

（操作說明）我們的下一個問題來自麥考瑞大學的梅納德‧烏姆。

As you continue to scale the business, can you talk about how we should think about how you balance profits versus reinvestments? You're targeting sustainable GAAP profitability and cash flow. But I'm curious if there's a level of GAAP profitability or GAAP operating margin or cash flow you want to hold and then take the excess to fund new growth or accelerate opportunities?

隨著業務規模的不斷擴大，您能否談談我們應該如何看待利潤與再投資之間的平衡？你們的目標是實現符合美國通用會計準則的可持續獲利能力和現金流。但我很好奇，您是否希望保持一定的 GAAP 盈利能力、GAAP 營業利潤率或現金流水平，然後將超出部分用於資助新的增長或加速抓住機會？

Sure. I mean, maybe to -- if I characterize that question, it'll be like, are we starving new vehicle development in order to achieve GAAP profitably and cash flow positive? Would that be an accurate -- is that essentially -- like the answer is no. So we've made significant progress on the Model Y. So in fact, I approved the prototype to go to production recently. So it will be 2020 before that's in volume production. But we made great progress there. Also continue to make progress on the semi and the newer Tesla Roadster. And then actually, the product I'm personally most excited about is the Tesla pickup truck. It's like -- I think that's going to reach the next level stuff there. And then I should not forget to mention the solar tile roof. We'll also start going into volume production of the solar tile roof next year. That's quite a long development cycle for -- because anything that's roof has got to last 30 years. So even if you do accelerate life testing as fast as possible, there's still a minimum amount of time required to do that. And there's a lot of engineering that goes into how do you put on the solar tile roof with a -- and not be really labor-intensive in doing so. So there's a lot of engineering not just in the tile but in the way it's done. And then we've got continued improvements in Powerwall, Powerpack, other energy products. I think we've got the most exciting product road map of any company by far. And I'm not even sure, like probably twice. I don't even know who would have -- which company would have a better product road map or even close. Yes. Maybe they do, but I don't know about them.

當然。我的意思是，也許——如果我這樣描述這個問題，那就是：我們是否為了實現 GAAP 盈利和正現金流而扼殺了新車研發？那是否準確——本質上是否如此——答案是否定的。我們在Model Y專案上取得了重大進展。事實上，我最近已經批准原型車投入生產。所以要到2020年才能達到量產。但我們在那裡取得了很大進展。同時，繼續推動半掛卡車和新款特斯拉跑車的研發工作。實際上，我個人最期待的產品是特斯拉皮卡。我覺得──這將會達到一個新的高度。最後，我也不能忘記提及太陽能瓦屋頂。明年我們也將開始大量生產太陽能瓦屋頂。這是一個相當長的開發週期——因為任何屋頂結構都必須使用30年。所以即使你以最快的速度加速壽命試驗，仍然需要一定的最短時間才能完成。而如何安裝太陽能瓦屋頂，同時又不至於非常費力，這涉及到許多工程技術。所以，不僅瓷磚本身需要大量的工程技術，瓷磚的製作工藝也需要。此外，Powerwall、Powerpack 和其他能源產品也在不斷改進。我認為我們擁有迄今為止所有公司中最令人興奮的產品路線圖。我甚至都不確定，大概兩次吧。我甚至不知道誰會擁有更好的產品路線圖，或至少接近更好的產品路線圖。是的。也許他們有，但我並不了解。

Great. And when you think about Tesla having its own ride-sharing fleet or giving people the ability to loan out their car like an Airbnb model, I'm curious if your long-term plan is to build a platform that's going to enable companies to write applications to turn the car directly into an application. And then can you also maybe just talk about that business model? Is that -- should we be thinking more about like a revenue-sharing model sort of like how Apple takes a piece of revenue generated for applications from iPhones?

偉大的。當你想到特斯拉擁有自己的共享汽車車隊，或者像 Airbnb 一樣讓人們可以出租自己的汽車時，我很好奇你們的長期計劃是否是建立一個平台，使公司能夠編寫應用程序，將汽車直接變成一個應用程式。那麼，您能否也談談貴公司的商業模式呢？我們是否應該多考慮類似蘋果公司從 iPhone 應用程式產生的收入中抽取一部分作為收益分成模式呢？

I don't know about turning the car into an application exactly. But I mean, maybe. But we're trying to do things that maximizes usefulness. And so if there's a way we can think of where third parties could do something, then that could make sense. But I do know for sure that Tesla will operate its own ride-hailing right -- its own ride-hailing service. We'll compete directly with Uber and Lyft, obviously, but then also have the ability for customers to offer their car and add or subtract their car to the fleet at will. It will be a company-owned fleet. And the company-owned fleet will just be where there aren't enough customer cars to be lent out. So if we find like in a particular metro, there aren't enough customers who are willing to add their car to the shared fleet, then that's where we'll supplement it with a Tesla-owned fleet. So that's why it's a sort of combination of the Uber/Lyft thing and Airbnb. And then we will charge something probably comparable to, yes, how does the App Store works, or I don't know, we charge 30% or something in order for somebody to add the car to the fleet. I think that's like a pretty sensible way to go. Yes.

我不太清楚如何將汽車轉化為應用程式。但我的意思是，也許吧。但我們正在努力做能最大限度發揮效用的事。因此，如果我們能想到第三方可以做些什麼，那或許就說得通了。但我可以肯定的是，特斯拉將擁有自己的叫車平台——自己的叫車服務。我們顯然會直接與 Uber 和 Lyft 競爭，但同時也允許客戶提供自己的車輛，並隨時向車隊添加或移除車輛。這將是一支公司自有車隊。公司自有車隊只會用於客戶車輛不足以藉出的場合。所以，如果我們發現某個大都會地區沒有足夠的顧客願意將自己的車加入共享車隊，那麼我們就會用特斯拉自有車隊來補充。所以，它算是 Uber/Lyft 和 Airbnb 的某種結合。然後我們會收取類似 App Store 的費用，或者我也不知道，我們會收取 30% 的費用，讓用戶將車輛添加到車隊中。我覺得這算是個相當明智的做法。是的。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

First question is on governance. As the company conducts its search for a new Chairman, what are the attributes and experiences of that person that you think would be a best fit or best value for Tesla?

第一個問題是關於治理的。在公司尋找新董事長之際，您認為最適合特斯拉或最有價值的人選應具備哪些特質和經驗？

Actually, on this call, we are going to restrict the questions to operational topics. Do you have another question?

實際上，本次電話會議，我們將把問題限制在操作層面。您還有其他問題嗎？

No problem. Yes, I do. Can you tell us about the folks who are taking deliveries of Model 3? What are the top cars, car models or brands that they're trading in or switching out of? How many are new to the brand? Anything you're prepared to share, and then I've got a follow-up.

沒問題。是的，我願意。可以跟我們說說那些提走Model 3的客戶的狀況嗎？他們最常置換或換購的汽車、車款或品牌有哪些？其中有多少人是新用戶？你願意分享什麼？之後我還有後續問題。

Sure. Absolutely.

當然。絕對地。

This is Martin. So I've done all the analysis of all the trade-ins that we've received. And really the only pattern that I've seen is that it's sort of all across the board, and the vast majority is non-premium brands. I think that is the #1 message. It's just that more than half of the trade-ins we received were priced at below $35,000 when new. But other than that, there's no real pattern. I haven't noticed anything worth highlighting other than it's just a lot of people upgrading their cars quite dramatically.

這是馬丁。我已經對我們收到的所有以舊換新車輛進行了分析。我看到的唯一規律是，這種情況幾乎遍及所有品牌，絕大多數都是非高端品牌。我認為這是最重要的訊息。只是我們收到的置換車輛中，超過一半的新車價格低於 35,000 美元。但除此之外，並沒有什麼真正的規律。除了很多人都在大幅升級他們的汽車之外，我沒有註意到任何值得一提的事情。

This is a huge upgrade. Yes, for most people -- well, maybe for most, but for many people, it is the most expensive car they've ever bought. So they're clearly demonstrating with their money, that they're willing to spend extra money to get a Tesla. So like suddenly there's a sense of like mass-market premium.

這是一次巨大的升級。是的，對大多數人來說——好吧，也許對大多數人來說是這樣，但對很多人來說，這是他們買過的最昂貴的車。所以他們用實際行動表明，他們願意花額外的錢去買一輛特斯拉。所以突然之間就有了大眾市場高階產品的感覺。

And the price walk is way beyond the federal tax credit. So clearly, there is value to the car that they are perceiving, whether it's cost of ownership, whether it's sustainability, whether it's the brand or the product itself.

而且，價格上漲幅度遠遠超過了聯邦稅收抵免。顯然，他們所感知到的汽車是有價值的，無論是擁有成本、永續性、品牌或產品本身。

Safety. And safety.

安全。還有安全。

And the safety. All of the above is making a large number of customers jump up significantly in their purchase price.

還有安全性。以上種種因素導致大量顧客的購買價格大幅上漲。

Yes. I mean really, I think -- I honestly feel like the top reason to refer a friend to buy a Tesla is it's going to keep your friend safe.

是的。我的意思是，真的，我覺得──我真心覺得推薦朋友買特斯拉的首要原因是它能保障朋友的安全。

That's a good reason. If I can just squeeze in since I couldn't ask the first one that you could answer, do you think that the third quarter is a milestone, Elon, where you think Tesla becomes sustainably self-funding and perhaps not in need of outside capital?

這是個很好的理由。如果我能插一句，因為我沒能問到你能回答的第一個問題，埃隆，你認為第三季是一個里程碑嗎？你認為特斯拉會在這個季度實現可持續的自籌資金，也許不再需要外部資金？

Yes, that is our goal. We do not intend to raise equity or debt. At least that's our intention right now. That may change in the future. But the current operating plan is to pay off our debts and not to refinance them but to pay them off and reduce the debt load and overall leverage of the company. So -- and actually, I almost forgot one quite important thing. As -- and this is quite helpful. It's helpful to have these sort of crisis situations with logistics, for example. As I dug into the inventory -- like basically finished product inventory from factory to the customer, I was quite surprised to see how long that took and that it was quite expensive in a lot of cases to get cars to customers. This was something I didn't fully appreciate before. And we really have a major initiative at Tesla to get the average time from a car exiting the factory to receiving the check from the customer, being in the customer's hands, we have to be clear, we can only get the check when we give the car to the customer. So getting the car from the factory to a customer, to get that to be as short as possible. In August, the average time in North America to get a car from the factory to the customer was 30 days, which is embarrassingly long. By the end of the quarter, we've reduced it to around 20 days. And our goal in Q4 -- this is a goal, not a promise. But our goal is to get the average time of a car from the factory to a customer under 10 days. This is a giant improvement in the capital efficiency of the company because we're making on the order of $75 million worth of products per day -- of cars per day. So every day, it requires $75,000 -- $75 million worth of capital. So every 10 days, it's $750 million. And we -- obviously, we have a loan from the bank that we can make use of. But the banks will only loan us 85% of the cost of the vehicle, which translates to about 70% of the price of the vehicle. So -- and then we've got this loan outstanding, which effectively increases the COGS of the car. And it dilutes the company to the tune of 30% of one of the inventory -- of the finished goods in transit is. So this is really like tightening that and getting that below 10 days in North America and then also improving dramatically the time -- the transit time to Europe and Asia. It is where like having local factories is actually very important for the capital efficiency of the overall system because I think over time, we want to get the time for a car going from a factory to a customer under 7 days worldwide. And then the terms that we have from our suppliers are, on average, just over 60 days. Now our parts inventory management, also there's a lot of room for improvement there. We think we can probably cut that down to a few hundred million dollars or so, Deepak, something like that, maybe $200 million or $300 million of parts at the factory. So effectively, what we're going to do is reverse the working capital requirement for the company quite dramatically to the point where the faster we grow, the more capital we have. This is incredibly important for the capital efficiency of the company. It's night and day. Deepak, is there anything you'd like to...

是的，這就是我們的目標。我們不打算籌集股權或債務資金。至少這是我們目前的計劃。未來情況可能會有所改變。但目前的營運計畫是償還債務，而不是進行再融資，而是償還債務，從而降低公司的債務負擔和整體槓桿率。所以——實際上，我差點忘了一件非常重要的事。這很有幫助。例如，在物流方面，出現這類危機情況是有幫助的。當我深入研究庫存時——基本上就是從工廠到客戶的成品庫存——我驚訝地發現這個過程耗時很長，而且在很多情況下，將汽車送到客戶手中成本相當高昂。這是我以前沒有充分意識到的。特斯拉確實有一項重大舉措，旨在縮短從汽車出廠到客戶收到支票的平均時間。我們必須明確一點，只有當我們把車交給客戶時，我們才能收到支票。因此，要盡可能縮短汽車從工廠到客戶手中的運輸時間。8 月份，北美地區從工廠到客戶手中的汽車平均需要 30 天，這段時間長得令人尷尬。到季度末，我們已經將其縮短到大約 20 天。我們在第四季的目標——這只是一個目標，而不是一個承諾。但我們的目標是將汽車從工廠到客戶的平均時間縮短到 10 天以內。這大大提高了公司的資本效率，因為我們每天生產價值約 7,500 萬美元的產品——也就是每天生產價值約 7,500 萬美元的汽車。所以每天需要 75,000 美元——相當於 7500 萬美元的資金。所以每 10 天就是 7.5 億美元。而且我們——顯然，我們從銀行獲得了一筆貸款，我們可以利用這筆貸款。但銀行只願意貸款給我們車輛成本的 85%，這相當於車輛價格的 70% 左右。所以——然後我們還有一筆未償還的貸款，這實際上增加了汽車的銷售成本。這會稀釋公司 30% 的庫存——在途成品的庫存。所以這其實就是要縮短運輸時間，讓北美地區的運輸時間低於 10 天，同時大幅縮短到歐洲和亞洲的運輸時間。正是因為有了本地工廠，整個系統的資本效率才顯得尤為重要，因為我認為隨著時間的推移，我們希望將汽車從工廠到客戶手中的時間在全球範圍內控制在 7 天以內。然後，我們從供應商獲得的付款期限平均略超過 60 天。現在，我們的零件庫存管理也還有很大的改進空間。我們認為或許可以把成本削減到幾億美元左右，迪帕克，大概是這樣，工廠裡的零件成本可能在2億到3億美元之間。因此，我們實際上要做的是大幅扭轉公司的營運資金需求，使公司成長越快，我們擁有的資金就越多。這對公司的資本效率至關重要。簡直判若兩人。迪帕克，你有什麼想說的嗎…

No, I think you are totally -- we are reducing the raw material inventory on one hand by keeping production stable, finding efficiencies in warehouse management and supply chain and at the same time, reducing the time to deliver the car and convert that car into cash. And that significantly improves working capital needs.

不，我認為你完全錯了——一方面，我們透過保持生產穩定、提高倉庫管理和供應鏈效率來減少原材料庫存；另一方面，我們縮短了汽車交付時間和將汽車變現的時間。這樣可以顯著改善營運資金需求。

Yes. It's really quite dramatic. So -- yes, I think it sort of profoundly changes the financial effectiveness of Tesla.

是的。真是太戲劇化了。所以——是的，我認為這在某種程度上深刻地改變了特斯拉的財務狀況。

Yes. We reduced our inventory in Q3, which helped. And although we had higher payables because -- sorry, higher receivables because the quarter ended on a weekend, we won't have that in Q4. So all of this should continue to help us in Q4 and beyond, the working capital gain.

是的。我們在第三季減少了庫存，這起到了幫助作用。雖然由於季度末恰逢週末，導致應付帳款增加——抱歉，是應收帳款增加——但第四季不會再出現這種情況了。因此，所有這些因素都應該會在第四季及以後繼續幫助我們獲得營運資本利得。

Yes. I mean, it occurred to me that even if the only thing -- like even if this was the only thing that Tesla did different, was to shorten the time from factory to the end customer, any given company that did that will outcompete all other companies over time. It will not be a contest.

是的。我的意思是，我突然想到，即使特斯拉唯一與眾不同的地方——比如，即使這是特斯拉唯一與眾不同的地方——只是縮短了從工廠到最終客戶的時間，任何一家做到這一點的公司，隨著時間的推移，都將在競爭中勝過所有其他公司。這不會是一場競賽。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉。

I have one for Deepak and then a follow-up, please. Deepak, the OpEx expense management was very strong in the quarter. I think it was down 13% sequentially, and OpEx was only up 5% year-over-year despite revenue growing 71%. So on that front, I mean, in hindsight, did you get too bloated and needed to get more rightsized? And looking forward, how do we think about OpEx growth versus revenue growth on kind of a more normalized basis?

我有一個問題要問迪帕克，然後還有一個後續問題，謝謝。Deepak，本季營運支出管理非常出色。我認為環比下降了 13%，儘管收入增長了 71%，但營運支出同比增長僅為 5%。所以在這方面，我的意思是，事後看來，你是不是身材太臃腫，需要調整一下體型？展望未來，我們該如何以更正常化的方式看待營運支出成長與收入成長之間的關係？

Yes. Tony, so excluding onetime items, our OpEx decreased sequentially by 5%, to just clarify that first of all. And a lot of that was driven by the actions we took in Q2 to be more efficient with our employee headcount. We benefited from that in Q3. And we were really careful in terms of all of our spending. The other piece that helped us is a lot of our Model 3 spending on expense, sort of, R&D is reducing because Model 3 is going into production. So Q2 to Q3, we saw a reduction there. And it just gives you the sense of the leverage of -- the operating expenses can have while our revenue was growing dramatically. So our OpEx will increase in the future but in a far slower rate, and we will continue to be really, really careful about the spending. And I think there are actually more efficiencies than we can find.

是的。Tony，所以，撇開一次性項目不談，我們的營運支出較上月下降了 5%，首先要澄清這一點。這很大程度上要歸功於我們在第二季採取的提高員工人數效率的措施。我們在第三季從中受益。我們在所有開支方面都非常謹慎。另一個對我們有幫助的因素是，由於 Model 3 即將投產，我們在 Model 3 上的研發支出減少。因此，從第二季度到第三季度，我們看到了下降。這讓你感受到營運費用在我們收入大幅成長的同時所能產生的槓桿作用。因此，我們的營運支出未來會增加，但速度會慢得多，我們將繼續非常非常謹慎地控制支出。而且我認為實際上還有更多可以提高效率的地方。

We are going to find them, absolutely.

我們一定會找到他們的。

Right. So we'll continue down that path.

正確的。所以我們會繼續沿著這條路走下去。

Definitely.

確實。

And then to follow up, I was just wondering if you can help us a little bit on the -- back to the gross margin on Model 3 and the $35,000 car. So this quarter, I impute that Model 3 ASPs were maybe $59,000. And that might suggest that gross margins on a $35,000 Model 3 might be about 0. And Elon, I think you alluded to the fact that the goal is really to get positive gross margins on a $35,000 car before shipping. Are those all fair assessments? And I guess the question is, where is -- where would a Model 3 -- $35,000 Model 3 be in terms of gross margins today? And where does it need to be before you want to offer it broadly to consumers?

然後，我想進一步了解一下，您能否幫我們解答一下關於Model 3和35000美元汽車的毛利率的問題？因此，我估計本季 Model 3 的平均售價可能為 59,000 美元。這可能意味著售價 35,000 美元的 Model 3 的毛利率約為 0。伊隆，我想你暗示過，真正的目標是在交付之前，讓售價 35,000 美元的汽車實現正毛利率。這些評價都公平嗎？所以我想問的是，如今售價 35,000 美元的 Model 3，其毛利率會處於什麼水平？在你想把它廣泛提供給消費者之前，它需要達到什麼水準？

Yes. I mean, it's -- look, the problem with asking questions of that nature in detail is that it is a rapidly changing situation. So like literally, if you would ask this in a month, it will be different. In another month, it will be different. The -- there's no question that we need to get to a point where we can sell a $35,000 car and where the full accountable COGS of the car is, let's say, on the order of $30,000 or slightly less than $30,000. So I think we want to ideally get the COGS of the car -- of that, configuration of the car, under $30,000. That would be -- that's our goal. That's what we're pushing very hard to achieve.

是的。我的意思是，你看，詳細詢問這類問題的困難在於，情況瞬息萬變。所以，如果你一個月後再問這個問題，答案一定會不一樣。再過一個月，情況就會有所不同。毫無疑問，我們需要達到這樣的目標：能夠賣出一輛 35,000 美元的汽車，而這輛車的全部成本，比如說，在 30,000 美元左右或略低於 30,000 美元。所以我認為，理想情況下，我們希望將汽車的製造成本（包括汽車的配置）控制在 3 萬美元以下。那將是——那就是我們的目標。這就是我們正努力爭取實現的目標。

Exactly. And it's just a matter of time. It's -- there's a significant and material COGS reduction that comes. We have the smaller battery packs with fewer amount of cells. It's not the same cells that we have in the existing cars. And you can see the...

確切地。這只是時間問題。這意味著——銷售成本將大幅降低。我們有體積較小、電芯數量較少的電池組。它與我們現有汽車中使用的電池不同。你可以看到…

Fewer cells but it's not the same...

細胞數量少了，但情況不一樣…

It's the same amount of service. So same cost.

服務品質是一樣的。所以成本一樣。

Fewer cells and then the non-cell portion of the pack is also cost reduced. With the current midrange pack, it still has the same -- basically about the same non-cell portion of the past cost.

電池數量減少，電池組中非電池部分的成本也會降低。目前的中檔電池組，其非電池部分的成本與過去基本相同。

Exactly. And we are seeing massive reduction in all our manufacturing cost per car, which will continue. And as volume grows, that also helps us with the fixed cost absorption. So it's the same factors that have helped us so far, will continue to help us moving forward to get us there. Anything you want to add, J.B.? No?

確切地。我們看到每輛車的製造成本大幅下降，而且這種趨勢還會持續下去。隨著銷售成長，這也有助於我們吸收固定成本。所以，到目前為止幫助我們的因素，也將繼續幫助我們前進，最終實現目標。J.B.，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？不？

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from James Albertine with Consumer Edge.

下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 James Albertine。

Wanted to -- just a point of clarification. Elon, you mentioned in August the time to get the car from a factory to a customer was 30 days, down to 20 at the end of the quarter. Your goal is under 10 by the end of 4Q. Where do we see that flow through from a COGS perspective? Is that in automotive gross margin? Or is that in services and other at this point?

想澄清一下。埃隆，你在八月提到，從工廠到客戶手中的汽車交付時間為 30 天，到季度末縮短至 20 天。你的目標是在第四季末將這一數字降至 10 以下。從成本角度來看，我們如何看到這種流程的進展？這是汽車業的毛利率嗎？或者說，目前是指服務業和其他行業？

Yes. It's all in automotive gross margin. All logistics costs outbound, it's all in COGS for Automotive.

是的。一切取決於汽車業的毛利率。所有出境物流成本都計入汽車產業的銷售成本。

Outbound logistics. Yes, I think we'll see a reduction in inbound logistics as well as outbound logistics. Maybe a question is like, for the debt that is carried for that period of time, is that factored into COGS? Or is that not?

出境物流。是的，我認為我們會看到入境物流和出境物流都出現下滑。或許可以這樣問：對於這段時間內產生的債務，是否計入銷售成本？還是說並非如此？

The interest expense of the debt, that's in the interest expense line, okay. It's not in COGS.

債務的利息支出，也就是利息支出項下的金額，好的。它不在銷售成本中。

Okay. Yes. That's why I think for the definition of COGS, it should probably be important to include anything that's directly driven by volume. Essentially, that affects the marginal cost of the vehicle. So although that is not in -- officially in COGS, in my opinion, it probably should be, to take the ABL interest expense and apply that effectively to the cost of the car.

好的。是的。因此，我認為在定義銷貨成本時，應該把所有直接受銷售驅動的因素都包括進去。從本質上講，這會影響車輛的邊際成本。所以，雖然這在官方意義上還沒有計入銷售成本，但我認為，應該計入，以便將資產抵押貸款利息支出有效地應用於汽車成本。

And from a broader sense, you're looking at it as the cost of doing business, which can be volume.

從更廣義的角度來看，這可以看作是開展業務的成本，而業務量就是成本。

Yes. Just essentially, the cash flow for everybody increases quite dramatically. Dilution or leverage outside of the ABL line improves dramatically. And then the de facto cost of -- the effective cost of the car also reduces because you do not have the interest expense. If you have interest expense over 20 days versus 10 days, this is a big difference.

是的。簡而言之，每個人的現金流都大幅增加。ABL 線以外的稀釋或槓桿作用顯著改善。而且，由於沒有利息支出，汽車的實際成本也會降低。如果利息支出期限為 20 天而不是 10 天，這之間會有很大的差異。

Yes.

是的。

Understood. I appreciate that clarification. Sort of what I was trying to get at, you've been running in negative gross margin in services and other for several quarters now. And wanted to get a sense for when that could maybe trough and start to turn the corner and to generate some profit for you. I understand there's a lot of building out going on for sales, service and charging infrastructure. But if you could give us some kind of clarification there, that would be, I think, helpful. And if you're willing maybe to provide an update on where you stand today in terms of battery costs. I know your goal of sort of parity with ICE vehicles but maybe an update, if you're willing to provide, on where you stand on that trajectory.

明白了。感謝您的澄清。我大概想表達的是，你們的服務和其他業務已經連續幾季出現負毛利率了。我想了解這種情況何時可能會觸底反彈，並開始為您帶來一些利潤。我知道銷售、服務和充電基礎設施方面正在進行大量的建設。如果您能對此做出一些澄清，我認為會很有幫助。如果您願意的話，能否介紹一下目前在電池成本方面的狀況？我知道你們的目標是讓燃油車與燃油車達到某種程度的平衡，但如果你們願意的話，能否提供一下關於你們在這一發展方向上的進展情況？

I think over time, every quarter, progressively, we will see an improvement in the Service and Other business as our revenue continues to grow and as the size of our fleet grows. It's as simple as that.

我認為隨著時間的推移，隨著收入的持續成長和車隊規模的擴大，服務和其他業務將逐季逐步改善。就這麼簡單。

Yes. I would -- long term, I would expect service to be a significant revenue item and to be a positive margin contributor. And it's going to be a function of our fleet size.

是的。從長遠來看，我預期服務業將成為重要的收入來源，並帶來正利潤。這將取決於我們的機隊規模。

And age.

還有年齡。

Yes. And age. Essentially...

是的。還有年齡。本質上...

There are a lot of cars under warranty now.

現在有很多車還在保固期內。

Yes. No. Exactly, under warranty. It's like there's a lot of stuff that's under warranty. But as the warranty expires, so there's like non-warranty items. Then we expect service to have positive gross margin.

是的。不。沒錯，還在保固期內。感覺很多東西都在保固期內。但是隨著保固期的到期，就會出現不在保固範圍內的商品。那我們預計服務業的毛利率將為正值。

Yes. And that also includes our used car sales.

是的。這其中也包括我們的二手車銷售。

Yes, good point.

是的，說得對。

And our used car sales is continuing to grow, and they have a healthy margin. And so that overall business for mature companies is, in some cases, more profitable than new product sales. I'm not just talking about OEMs, auto OEMs. And we are at the early stage of our growth here. And as our fleet size grows, there are just so many opportunities in that business that it's a matter of time, as I'll simply say.

我們的二手車銷售持續成長，而且利潤率也很高。因此，對於成熟公司而言，整體業務在某些情況下比新產品銷售更有利可圖。我說的不只是汽車OEM廠商。我們目前仍處於發展初期。隨著我們車隊規模的成長，這個產業蘊藏著如此多的機會，這只是時間問題，我只能這麼說。

Yes.

是的。

And on the battery cost, there was a question.

至於電池成本，當時存在疑問。

Well, that is a key sort of competitive metric. So I think it's safe to say we're much better than anyone else by a lot. But we prefer not to give a precise number.

嗯，這是一項關鍵的競爭指標。所以我覺得可以肯定地說，我們比其他任何人都強得多。但我們不願給出確切數字。

Our final question comes from Phil LeBeau with CNBC TV.

最後一個問題來自 CNBC 電視台的 Phil LeBeau。

Elon, quick question. In terms of as the federal tax credit seems to be phased out as your sales cross over the threshold, what kind of an impact have you guys modeled into how much that might slow down potential sales?

埃隆，問個問題。鑑於聯邦稅收抵免似乎會隨著銷售額超過門檻而逐步取消，你們對這可能會對潛在銷售額造成多大的影響進行了建模？

We don't expect this to result in -- I mean, the sales tax -- or the tax incentive in the U.S. drops in half in this quarter. But then we also start shipping to Europe and then start shipping to Asia. And we certainly do not expect anything that would cause our production to drop below, let's say, a minimum of 5,000 cars a week.

我們預計這不會導致——我的意思是，美國的銷售稅——或者稅收優惠在本季減半。但隨後我們也開始向歐洲出貨，然後又開始向亞洲出貨。我們當然不希望出現任何導致我們產量低於每周至少 5000 輛汽車的情況。

But in terms of in the United States, do you expect that it'll slow down demand and sales within the U.S.?

但就美國而言，您認為這會減緩美國國內的需求和銷售嗎？

I think that as we're able to offer lower-cost versions of the car, that we would expect demand to sustain in the U.S. But I want to be clear. It's not like we're holding back this lower-cost version of the car intentionally. It's just like with -- it's like is there anything we can do to provide a lower-cost car now, and that's where we came up with the depopulated long-range pack just like basically taking -- having a long-range pack with fewer cells. Like we really care about providing the end customer with the most affordable car that we can possibly produce, the best viability. And if we could do the smaller pack now, we absolutely would. It's just going to take us, I don't know, at least 3 months to get the production going and you got to [spool up] production. And that production is going to go to -- we're going to make the packs. The packs are going to go to the vehicle factory. We've got the cars that we're going to get delivered to customers. So that's why customers probably see the smaller battery pack on the order of like March or something, or February maybe. It's something on that order. And one thing -- these do trigger points that are worth bearing in mind. As our quarterly letter indicates, the Model 3 has the -- is the most efficient energy per mile electric vehicle out there. It's got the best efficiency. So we've got the best in terms of miles or kilometers per kilowatt hour, and we also have the lowest cost per kilowatt hour. This makes it very difficult for other companies to compete with Tesla because we're the most efficient car and the lowest-cost batteries. So I do encourage our competitors to really make a huge investment. And we've been saying that for a long time. And then they are only in this competitive disadvantage because they didn't -- we try to help them as much as we could and they didn't want to take our help. So they can use all our patents for free. We have -- they can use our Supercharger network if they can just have an adapter for our -- connector or something. We want to be as helpful as possible to the rest of the industry. The fact of the matter is we made the investment in the Gigafactory and other companies didn't. And we put a lot of effort into having extremely efficient cars, which are having the most efficient powertrains, and the other companies didn't. But I'm sure they will over time. But that's what has put us in quite a strong competitive advantage -- competitive position right now.

我認為，隨著我們能夠提供價格更低的汽車版本，我們預計美國市場的需求將保持穩定。但我想明確一點。我們並不是故意不推出這款價格更低的車款。這就好比——就像我們現在能做些什麼來提供更低成本的汽車一樣，這就是我們提出減少電池數量的長續航電池組的原因，基本上就是——擁有一個電池數量更少的長續航電池組。我們真心希望為最終客戶提供我們所能生產的最經濟實惠、最具可行性的汽車。如果現在就能推出小包裝，我們一定會這麼做。我不知道，至少需要 3 個月的時間才能開始生產，你們必須加快生產速度。而這些產品將用於—我們將生產包裝。這些包裹將運往車輛工廠。我們已經準備好將車輛交付給客戶。所以這就是為什麼客戶可能會在三月或二月左右看到較小的電池組到貨的原因。大概就是那個意思。還有一點——這些都是值得注意的觸發點。正如我們的季度信函所指出的，Model 3 是目前​​每英里能源效率最高的電動車。它的效率最高。因此，就每千瓦時行駛的英里數或公里數而言，我們是最好的，而且我們每千瓦時的成本也是最低的。這使得其他公司很難與特斯拉競爭，因為我們擁有最高效的汽車和成本最低的電池。所以我鼓勵我們的競爭對手進行巨額投資。我們一直以來都是這麼說的。他們之所以處於這種競爭劣勢，只是因為他們沒有——我們盡力幫助他們，但他們不願意接受我們的幫助。所以他們可以免費使用我們所有的專利。我們有——如果他們能有一個適配器連接到我們的——連接器之類的東西，他們就可以使用我們的超級充電網路。我們希望盡可能地幫助到業內其他企業。事實是我們投資建造了超級工廠，而其他公司沒有。我們投入了大量精力來製造極其高效的汽車，這些汽車擁有最高效的動力系統，而其他公司卻沒有這樣做。但我相信隨著時間的推移，他們會的。但正是這一點讓我們擁有了相當強大的競爭優勢——目前處於競爭地位。

Fantastic. I think that's all we have time for today. Sorry, go ahead.

極好的。我想我們今天就到此為止了。抱歉，請繼續。

I just want to add a comment in closing. And Elon started with it, and I wanted to say that from myself personally here. I want to personally thank all the Tesla employees who worked incredibly hard this quarter and in prior quarters in each and every part of our business. Our results really are the -- are a reflection of the execution done in the company -- done by the company and the passion that our employees have to deliver such results despite all odds. And I also want to thank all our customers and all our investors who believed in us and our product and our vision. All of that leading the world's transition to sustainable energy. So thank you from my side.

最後我想補充一點。伊隆馬斯克就是從這裡開始的，我個人也想在這裡說一句。我要親自感謝特斯拉的所有員工，感謝他們在本季以及之前的幾季裡，在公司各個業務領域所付出的巨大努力。我們的業績確實反映了公司執行力的發揮，以及員工克服重重困難取得如此佳績的熱情。我還要感謝所有信任我們、相信我們的產品和願景的客戶和投資者。這一切都在引領世界轉型為永續能源。所以，我由衷地感謝你。

Do you want to add anything?

您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I'm good.

不，我很好。

Okay. Anybody have any additional comments or anything? All right. Thanks, everyone. And yes, look forward to the next call. Thanks.

好的。有其他人有其他意見或建議嗎？好的。謝謝大家。是的，期待下次通話。謝謝。

Thank you. Goodbye.

謝謝。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。大家可以斷開連接，祝你們有美好的一天。