特斯拉 (TSLA) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for your patience. You've joined the Tesla Q2 2019 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference may be recorded.

    各位女士、先生,大家好,感謝你們的耐心等待。您已加入特斯拉 2019 年第二季財務業績及問答網路直播。(操作說明)提醒:本次會議可能會被錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Senior Director of Investor Relations, Martin Viecha. Sir, you may begin.

    現在我將把電話交給主持人,投資者關係高級總監馬丁維查。先生,您可以開始了。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you, Latif, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Second Quarter 2019 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives.

    謝謝 Latif,大家下午好,歡迎參加特斯拉 2019 年第二季問答網路直播。今天與我一同出席的有伊隆馬斯克、J.B. Straubel、扎卡里柯克霍恩以及其他一些高階主管。

  • Our Q3 results were announced at about 1:45 p.m. Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

    我們的第三季業績於下午1點45分左右公佈。我們在與本次網路直播相同的連結發布的更新信中註明了太平洋時間。

  • During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並發表前瞻性聲明。這些評論是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素,實際事件或結果可能與預期有重大差異,包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些風險和不確定因素。(操作說明)

  • But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

    但在進入問答環節之前,伊隆先有一些開場白。埃隆?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Thank you. So last quarter, we delivered more than 95,000 vehicles, which is a record for Tesla. Put that in perspective, it's nearly an 80% increase in deliveries compared to the second quarter of last year. I think it's sometimes hard for people to appreciate when you have a large manufactured item with a complex global supply chain just how difficult that is. I'm incredibly proud of the Tesla team for being able to do that.

    謝謝。上個季度,我們交付了超過 95,000 輛汽車,這是特斯拉的記錄。從這個角度來看,與去年第二季相比,交付量成長了近 80%。我認為,對於大型製造產品和複雜的全球供應鏈而言,人們有時很難體會其中的難度。我為特斯拉團隊能夠做到這一點感到無比自豪。

  • I think this level of growth is possibly unprecedented. It might be the fastest that any large complex manufactured item has grown in history. So just, I think, really great work by the Tesla team to achieve that outcome, and we expect growth to continue in the future at -- for several years to come at the 50% to 100% level. So as I said, I think that is not well appreciated how the quotas grow at that rate.

    我認為這種成長速度可能是前所未有的。這可能是歷史上任何大型複雜製成品成長速度最快的一次。所以,我認為特斯拉團隊為取得這項成果付出了巨大的努力,我們預計未來幾年將繼續維持 50% 到 100% 的成長水準。正如我所說,我認為大家並沒有充分意識到配額成長的速度有多快。

  • But achieving record number of deliveries is an important milestone and shows the rapid progress we've made in managing a global logistics and delivery operation at high volume. And as I said, all of this was achieved thanks to the tremendous hard work of the entire Tesla team.

    但實現創紀錄的交付量是一個重要的里程碑,顯示我們在管理大規模全球物流和交付營運方面取得了快速進展。正如我所說,這一切都要歸功於特斯拉團隊全體成員的巨大努力。

  • Model 3 is once again the best-selling premium vehicle in the U.S., outselling all of its gas-powered equivalents combined. In Europe, Model 3 is approaching sales levels of its established premium competitors, and it was awarded a 5-star rating from Euro NCAP earlier this month. This is in addition to Model 3 receiving an overall 5-star rating in the U.S. from NHTSA and -- including earning 5 stars in every category and subcategory and achieving the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested.

    Model 3 再次成為美國最暢銷的高端車型,銷量超過了所有同級別汽油動力車型的總和。在歐洲,Model 3 的銷量正在接近其成熟的高端競爭對手,並在本月初獲得了 Euro NCAP 的 5 星評級。此外,Model 3 還獲得了美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 的 5 星總體評級,包括在每個類別和子類別中獲得 5 顆星,並且實現了所有測試車輛中最低的受傷機率。

  • Motor Trend also recently selected Model S as the best vehicle they have ever tested in their 70-year history across all other cars. So Motor Trend, which is arguably the leading authority in evaluating vehicles, the Motor Trend Car of the Year is the most coveted award. It's pretty incredible that they would say that Model S in their entire 70-year history is the best vehicle they have ever evaluated. This is despite Tesla not buying any advertising in Motor Trend, and it speaks to their journalistic integrity. That's something special.

    《Motor Trend》雜誌最近也將Model S評選為他們70年歷史中測試過的所有車型中最好的一款。因此,作為公認的汽車評估權威機構,《Motor Trend》雜誌頒發的「年度最佳汽車」獎項是最令人夢寐以求的獎項。令人難以置信的是,他們竟然說Model S是他們70年歷史上評測過的最好的車。儘管特斯拉沒有在《Motor Trend》雜誌上投放任何廣告,但這仍然反映了該雜誌的新聞操守。那真是特別。

  • So -- and since the vehicle that they evaluated, we've actually made -- committed to advancements of both Model S and Model X, including our recent update of a new suspension with active damping capability and an all-new drivetrain that's capable of a 370-mile range in the Model S and a 325-mile range in the Model X. We've also issued numerous software updates and improvements that have made Model S and Model X faster, safer and added dozens of new features. Just like Model 3, Model S and X have the hardware needed for future full self-driving capability.

    因此,自從他們評估那款車型以來,我們一直致力於改進Model S和Model X,包括我們最近更新的帶有主動阻尼功能的新型懸架,以及全新的動力系統,使Model S的續航里程達到370英里,Model X的續航里程達到325英里。我們也發布了多次軟體更新和改進,讓Model S和Model X速度更快、更安全,並增加了數十項新功能。與 Model 3 一樣,Model S 和 Model X 也具備未來完全自動駕駛所需的硬體。

  • As we look ahead to the rest of the year and into 2020, we remain focused on launching new vehicle and energy programs, further expanding on manufacturing operations and continuing to improve customer service. We remain focused on international expansion because local production is essential to being cost-competitive. By the end of this year, we will -- we expect to be producing Model 3s in volume out of Gigafactory Shanghai. And as you can see from the photos in our quarterly letter, the equipment installation there is progressing well. We also have to finalize a location for our European Gigafactory before the end of the year.

    展望今年剩餘時間和 2020 年,我們將繼續專注於推出新的汽車和能源項目,進一步擴大製造業務,並繼續改善客戶服務。我們仍然專注於國際擴張,因為在地化生產對於保持成本競爭力至關重要。到今年年底,我們預計將在上海超級工廠批量生產Model 3。從我們季度信函中的照片可以看出,那裡的設備安裝工作進展順利。我們還必須在年底前最終確定歐洲超級工廠的選址。

  • Here in Fremont, preparations for Model Y production have already begun. Since Model Y has high component overlap with Model 3, it should be -- we expect it to be a lot easier to ramp. It's something in the order of 3/4 of all the parts are common between Model 3 and Model Y. And we expect many manufacturing costs for Model Y, despite additional content, to be approximately the same as Model 3.

    在弗里蒙特,Model Y 的生產準備工作已經開始。由於 Model Y 與 Model 3 的零件重疊度很高,因此我們預計它的產能提升會容易得多。Model 3 和 Model Y 之間大約有四分之三的零件是通用的。我們預計,儘管 Model Y 增加了一些配置,但其許多製造成本將與 Model 3 大致相同。

  • This quarter, we opened 25 new service locations and added more than 100 Mobile Service vehicles to our fleet. And although our fleets have a total -- Tesla fleet size has doubled in the past 12 months, which is again just kind of a crazy thing to consider that Tesla is almost doubling all cumulative production every year. This is a totally mad thing to make as many cars in a year as we've made in our entire history and to have that be an ongoing trend, I think it's difficult for people to really feel an exponential. We didn't evolve to feel an exponential. We can feel a linear, but we can only understand an exponential at a cognitive level.

    本季度,我們開設了 25 個新的服務點,並為我們的車隊增加了 100 多輛移動服務車輛。儘管我們的車隊總規模——特斯拉車隊規模在過去 12 個月裡翻了一番,考慮到特斯拉幾乎每年都在將其累積產量翻一番,這確實是一件令人難以置信的事情。一年內生產出我們歷史上最多的汽車,並且還要保持這種趨勢,這簡直太瘋狂了,我認為人們很難真正感受到指數級增長。我們進化並不是為了感受指數級成長。我們可以感受到線性關係,但我們只能在認知層面上理解指數關係。

  • But Tesla is expanding at an exponential rate. And in fact, if you look at the Tesla cumulative deliveries chart like year-over-year cumulative deliveries, it's about the cleanest exponential graph I've ever seen. So obviously, if that trend continues, the results, I think, are going to be pretty amazing. And I think that will continue.

    但特斯拉正以指數級速度擴張。事實上,如果你看一下特斯拉的累積交付量圖表,例如同比累計交付量圖表,你會發現它是我見過的最清晰的指數曲線圖。所以很明顯,如果這種趨勢持續下去,我認為結果將會非常驚人。我認為這種情況還會持續下去。

  • So we've been able to improve service considerably. You can imagine that if -- obviously, if we're doubling our fleet every year, managing service is quite difficult. It's like a total -- because service scales as not just with new production but as the total fleet scales, service needs to scale. And we want to scale service in a way that's sensible from a cost standpoint. But it's really quite a difficult challenge to scale.

    因此,我們的服務得到了顯著提升。您可以想像,如果——顯然,如果我們每年都將機隊規模擴大一倍,那麼服務管理將會非常困難。這就像一個整體——因為服務規模不僅隨著新生產的增加而擴大,而且隨著整個車隊規模的擴大而擴大,所以服務也需要擴大規模。我們希望以成本合理的方式擴展服務規模。但要擴大規模確實是相當大的挑戰。

  • Nonetheless, we've made massive improvements in service, especially in parts waiting -- time to wait for parts and collision repair. And we've in-sourced a great deal of the collision repair activities, which has had, I think, quite a good effect on customer happiness. And this will continue in the months to come.

    儘管如此,我們在服務方面取得了巨大的進步,尤其是在零件等待時間方面——等待零件和碰撞維修的時間。我們已經將大量的碰撞維修業務收回公司內部,我認為這對提高客戶滿意度產生了相當好的影響。這種情況將在未來幾個月持續下去。

  • So it's a very important milestone. I think we believe Tesla has -- is now at the point of being self-funding, and we expect to be cash flow -- free cash flow positive in future quarters with the possible temporary exceptions around the launch and ramp of new product. From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around breakeven this quarter and profitable next quarter. So that's -- I feel pretty confident about that.

    所以這是一個非常重要的里程碑。我認為我們相信特斯拉已經——現在正處於自籌資金的階段,我們預計未來幾季將實現現金流——自由現金流為正,但新產品發布和量產期間可能會出現暫時的例外情況。從獲利角度來看,我們預期本季可能勉強收支平衡,下季將獲利。所以——我對此相當有信心。

  • And then in terms of deliveries, we expect deliveries to be between 360,000 and 400,000. We expect production to be a slightly higher number than that and demand to be a slightly higher number than that. So people often confuse deliveries, production and orders for Tesla, and they're actually 3 different numbers. So yes, you obviously cannot deliver more than you make, and so typically, we will make more than we deliver. And then demand generation activities kind of move in kind of like -- to get together with production like it doesn't make sense to put a lot of effort into demand generation if production can't meet the demand.

    至於交付量,我們預計交付量將在 36 萬至 40 萬之間。我們預期產量會略高於這個數字,需求量也會略高於這個數字。所以人們經常把特斯拉的交貨量、產量和訂單量混淆,但實際上它們是 3 個不同的數字。所以,很顯然,你不可能交付比你賺的更多的東西,因此通常情況下,我們的收入會超過我們的交付量。然後,需求創造活動就有點像——與生產結合起來,因為如果生產無法滿足需求,那麼在需求創造方面投入大量精力就沒有意義了。

  • And likewise -- so what tends to happen is that we'll solve the production issues, then say, okay, we need to increase demand -- address demand then we may increase production, then increase demand. And like I truly get caught up in these details a lot, but if you look at the actual results, like I said, look at cumulative deliveries over time for Tesla, cleanest exponential we've ever seen, extrapolate that curve.

    同樣地——所以通常的情況是,我們會先解決生產問題,然後說,好吧,我們需要增加需求——解決需求問題,然後我們可能會增加生產,然後再增加需求。我確實經常糾結於這些細節,但如果你看看實際結果,就像我說的,看看特斯拉的累計交付量隨時間的變化,你會發現這是我們見過的最清晰的指數增長曲線,然後推斷出這條曲線。

  • So there's a tremendous amount to be excited about at Tesla, and we'll have more share in the coming weeks and months. Zach, is there anything you'd like to say about our results?

    所以特斯拉有很多令人興奮的地方,我們將在未來幾週和幾個月內分享更多相關資訊。札克,​​你對我們的結果有什麼想說的嗎?

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes, sure. And thanks, Elon. A few things I want to highlight before moving into the Q&A. Overall, Q2 was a strong quarter for Tesla. I'm extremely proud of the team for the progress we've made. We've achieved record vehicle production and delivery, record storage production and deployment, record services and other revenue with a corresponding reduced loss. As we've mentioned a few times, we stabilized international logistics and delivery operations at higher volumes. And we saw gross margin improvement in nearly every aspect of the business, adjusting for the impact of regulatory credit revenue.

    當然可以。謝謝你,埃隆。在進入問答環節之前,我想先強調幾點。整體而言,特斯拉第二季業績表現強勁。我為團隊的進步感到無比自豪。我們實現了創紀錄的車輛生產和交付量、創紀錄的儲存生產和部署量、創紀錄的服務和其他收入,同時虧損也相應減少。正如我們之前多次提到的,我們已穩定了國際物流和配送業務,業務量也相應提高。經調整監管信貸收入的影響後,我們發現業務的幾乎所有方面毛利率都有所提高。

  • As a result of these accomplishments, we once again achieved strong free cash flows, which is only partially attributed to working capital benefits. We also successfully raised roughly $2.4 billion in net proceeds in May. Thus, we exited the quarter with $5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, the highest in our history. Our net loss reduced significantly relative to Q1, aided by higher volumes in progress on cost efficiencies.

    由於這些成就,我們再次實現了強勁的自由現金流,但這只是部分歸功於營運資本的改善。我們在5月也成功籌集了約24億美元的淨收益。因此,本季末我們擁有 50 億美元的現金及現金等價物,創歷史新高。與第一季相比,我們的淨虧損大幅減少,這得益於成本效益方面進展的加速。

  • A few things to note. There's $117 million within operating expenses for restructuring. We had a sequential reduction of $104 million related to regulatory credit, which is inherently lumpy. And in our other income line, we saw a $66 million reduction. This is nearly entirely due to foreign exchange, which we don't hedge.

    有幾點要注意。營運費用中有 1.17 億美元用於重組。由於監管信貸問題,我們出現了 1.04 億美元的環比減少,而監管信貸本身就具有不均衡性。而在其他收入方面,我們看到了6600萬美元的減少。這幾乎完全是由於外匯波動造成的,而我們沒有進行外匯對沖。

  • GAAP automotive gross margin only reduced slightly despite the reduction in credit revenue and expected reductions in our vehicle average selling prices. Adjusting for the impact of credits, automotive gross margin improved materially. For Model S and Model X, ASPs are impacted by pricing actions applied to inventory of vehicles built prior to the launch of our powertrain and suspension upgrades in April, the majority of which were sold and delivered in Q2.

    儘管信貸收入減少,且預計車輛平均售價會下降,但 GAAP 汽車毛利率僅略有下降。剔除信貸的影響後,汽車業的毛利率顯著提高。對於 Model S 和 Model X,平均售價受到在 4 月推出動力系統和懸吊升級之前生產的車輛庫存所採取的定價措施的影響,其中大部分車輛已在第二季度售出和交付。

  • For Model 3, global ASPs stabilized during the quarter at roughly $50,000, a sequential reduction, yet gross profit per Model 3 improved, representing the continued success of our cost management efforts. Note that we continue to defer a significant portion of revenue associated with full self-driving, which will be recognized in future periods upon the release of additional features.

    Model 3 的全球平均售價在本季度穩定在 50,000 美元左右,環比下降,但每輛 Model 3 的毛利有所提高,這代表了我們成本管理工作的持續成功。請注意,我們將繼續遞延與完全自動駕駛相關的相當一部分收入,這些收入將在後續推出更多功能時確認。

  • Operating expenses, net of restructuring, continues to improve as well despite the increases in volume, reflecting the immense focus on improving our operating efficiency. And while operating expenses and capital expenses may appear to be unnaturally low this quarter, that's not the case. Rather, these reflect continued progress on cost efficiency and ability to scale our core technologies and processes.

    儘管銷售量有所成長,但扣除重組費用後,營運支出也持續改善,這反映出我們對提高營運效率的高度重視。雖然本季的營運費用和資本支出看起來異常低,但事實並非如此。相反,這些反映了我們在成本效益和核心技術及流程規模化能力方面所取得的持續進步。

  • If we take a step back here, I think it's important to remember that Tesla is on a long-term journey, and it's difficult to see the full picture looking quarter-to-quarter. We committed that Model 3 will be a transformative product, both for the industry and our business. 3 years ago, we unveiled the Model 3. 2 years ago, we brought the product to market. 1 year ago, we demonstrated our ability to build the Model 3 at high rate.

    如果我們退後一步來看,我認為重要的是要記住,特斯拉正處於長期的發展階段,很難透過季度業績來了解全貌。我們承諾,Model 3 將是一款具有變革意義的產品,無論對產業或對我們公司而言都是如此。3年前,我們發布了Model 3。2年前,我們將產品推向市場。一年前,我們證明了我們有能力高速生產 Model 3。

  • So far this year, we've demonstrated our ability to manage global deliveries and logistics at a higher rate, but the most important thing is that we've demonstrated our ability to generate significant organic demand as nearly all orders generated in Q2 were nonreservation holders. And thus far in Q3, our order pacing is ahead of where we were at this point in Q2. And as we noted in our Q2 production and delivery release, our order backlog increased over the course of Q2.

    今年到目前為止,我們已經證明了我們有能力以更高的速度管理全球交付和物流,但最重要的是,我們已經證明了我們有能力創造顯著的自然需求,因為第二季度產生的幾乎所有訂單都是非預訂訂單。到目前為止,第三季我們的訂單進度已經超過了第二季同期的水準。正如我們在第二季生產和交付報告中所指出的,我們的訂單積壓在第二季期間有所增加。

  • Ultimately, the Model 3 is accomplishing what our business needs it to do. It expanded our sales and customer base, enabling us to generate cash we need to reinvest. In the process, we've appropriately managed our operating expenses and have reduced the cost of running the business. This is critically important because I feel as though we've broken through a baseline fixed cost barrier enabled by the success of the Model 3 business.

    最終,Model 3 實現了我們業務所需的功能。它擴大了我們的銷售額和客戶群,使我們能夠產生再投資所需的現金。在此過程中,我們合理地控制了營運費用,降低了企業營運成本。這一點至關重要,因為我覺得Model 3業務的成功讓我們能夠突破固定成本的瓶頸。

  • With continued focus on execution and cost management, the next 12 to 18 months should be the most exciting yet. During this time, we believe that Gigafactory Shanghai will be producing at scale. Model Y will be in production, addressing the most popular vehicle segment. Our European Gigafactory will be well underway. Our autonomous driving feature suite will continue to develop. Energy products business will grow and maybe a few other things along the way.

    在繼續專注於執行和成本控制的前提下,接下來的 12 到 18 個月應該是最令人振奮的時期。在此期間,我們相信上海超級工廠將實現規模化生產。Model Y 將投入生產,以滿足最熱門的汽車細分市場需求。我們的歐洲超級工廠將順利開工。我們的自動駕駛功能套件將持續發展完善。能源產品業務將會成長,或許過程中還會帶動其他一些業務的發展。

  • And while there's inherent risk in any large and ambitious set of projects, our intent is to grow and invest as fast as we can afford to. With the cash we have on hand and the stabilization of Model 3 across the key areas as I've noted, we believe we're in great shape for this next phase of growth.

    雖然任何大型且雄心勃勃的項目都存在固有的風險,但我們的目標是在力所能及的範圍內盡可能快地發展和投資。正如我之前提到的,憑藉我們手頭上的現金以及Model 3在關鍵領域的穩定發展,我們相信我們已經為下一階段的成長做好了充分的準備。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much. Now let's start taking some first questions -- sorry about that. Sorry. Go ahead.

    非常感謝。現在我們開始回答一些問題——抱歉打擾了。對不起。前進。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So an important update is that J.B. Straubel, our Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer, will be transitioning to a senior adviser from the CTO role. And Drew Baglino will be taking over most of J.B.'s responsibilities. I'd like to thank J.B. for his fundamental role in creating and building Tesla. Thank you, J.B.

    是的。因此,一個重要的更新是,我們的聯合創始人兼首席技術長 J.B. Straubel 將從首席技術長一職轉任高級顧問。德魯·巴格利諾將接替J.B.的大部分職責。我要感謝J.B.在特斯拉的創建和發展過程中發揮的關鍵作用。謝謝你,J.B.

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • Thanks, Elon.

    謝謝你,埃隆。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • If we hadn't had lunch in 2003, Tesla wouldn't exist, basically.

    如果我們在 2003 年沒有一起吃午飯,特斯拉基本上就不會存在。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • It's been -- yes, it's been quite an adventurous 16 years.

    是的,這16年真是充滿冒險。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Lunch with you and Harold Rosen (inaudible). That's the reason Tesla exists.

    是的。與你和哈羅德·羅森共進午餐(聽不清楚)。這就是特斯拉存在的理由。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • I remember it well. And maybe just to add a bit more to that. I'm not disappearing, and I just want to make sure that people understand that this is not some lack of confidence in the company or the team or anything like that. I love the team and I love the company and I always will.

    我記得很清楚。或許還可以再補充一點。我不會消失,我只是想確保大家明白,這不是我對公司或團隊缺乏信心,或是其他原因。我熱愛我的團隊,我熱愛這家公司,我將永遠熱愛它。

  • So Drew and I have worked closely together for many, many years, and I have total confidence in Drew. And I'm not going anywhere if there's anything I need to do to be helpful to Drew or the whole team or any of the ongoing projects. So yes, I mean I'm actually really happy with how we've kind of phased and transitioned some of these different projects and people in, and I feel like this is a super-good process overall.

    所以,我和德魯已經密切合作了很多年,我對德魯完全信任。如果有什麼我需要幫忙的地方,無論是對 Drew、整個團隊還是任何正在進行的項目,我都不會離開。所以,是的,我的意思是,我真的很高興我們能夠分階段、逐步地引入這些不同的項目和人員,我覺得這總體來說是一個非常好的過程。

  • Is there anything you want to say?

    有什麼想說的嗎?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • I would say obviously big shoes to fill, J.B. But we have been working closely. In fact, we've been talking about this project back in 2003 all along and...

    我得說,J.B.,你這個職位壓力很大。但我們一直在密切合作。事實上,早在2003年我們就一直在討論這個計畫…

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • You guys talked back in 2003 as well?

    你們2003年的時候也有聯絡過嗎?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Wow. 2003 was a good year.

    哇。2003年是個好年。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • I was graduating, and I didn't know what to do. I was like, oh, let's go do this project. But no, I feel exactly as you feel that we are well set up, that we know how to get help where we need to from you, and that we're very excited about the growth ahead of us, myself and the whole team.

    我即將畢業,但我不知道該做什麼。我當時就想,哦,咱們去做這個專案吧。不,我和你感覺完全一樣,我們已經做好了充分的準備,我們知道在需要的時候如何從你那裡獲得幫助,我和我的整個團隊都對未來的發展感到非常興奮。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • And I'm excited to stay involved in some of our core technologies and all that and help where I can, just in less of an operational with obviously less -- not an executive-type role.

    我很高興能繼續參與我們的一些核心技術以及其他相關工作,並在力所能及的範圍內提供幫助,只是在運營方面投入的精力會減少,顯然不會擔任管理型角色。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Sounds good. Well, J.B., thanks again for your instrumental role in creating this company and Drew as well. So that's cool. You guys talking about it in 2003. Yes. Lovely. The right year.

    聽起來不錯。J.B.,再次感謝你和Drew在創立這家公司過程中所扮演的關鍵角色。那真不錯。你們在2003年就討論這件事了。是的。迷人的。合適的年份。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • Good year.

    美好的一年。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Good year.

    美好的一年。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • It was -- the technology was ready. It was the time.

    沒錯——技術已經成熟了。時機到了。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. It was like the same line. It's like finally ready, just needed to be put in a car. AC Propulsion. Al Cocconi, Tom Gage. TZero. Got to give those guys a little credit. Yes.

    是的。感覺就像是同一條線。就像終於準備就緒,只差裝進車裡了。交流推進。阿爾·科科尼,湯姆·蓋奇。TZero。必須承認他們確實不錯。是的。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes, they did some fine work.

    是的,他們做得很好。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Great. I think we'll go ahead with some questions now.

    是的。偉大的。我想我們現在可以開始提問了。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much. So we have some first questions from our retail shareholders from say.com.

    非常感謝。所以,我們首先要收到一些來自 say.com 零售股東的問題。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • And the first question is it has been stated that Tesla is supply constrained not demand constrained. Can you help us shed some light on why Tesla is lowering car cost if supply is constrained?

    第一個問題是,有人指出特斯拉受限於供應而非需求。你能幫我們解釋一下,在供應受限的情況下,特斯拉為何還要降低汽車價格嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Sure. There's a number of things to consider here. The -- there's really 2 key dimensions for demand. There's value for money, and then there's affordability. Obviously, if somebody simply does not have enough money to buy the car, it doesn't matter how much the -- how good the value for money is. You can have infinite value for money, but if someone does not have the funds to buy the car, they simply can't get it. So it's very important to parse those 2, and I think there's like -- there's tremendous amount of desire to buy our cars, but people -- obviously, if they don't have enough money to buy them, they cannot. So we have to make the cars more affordable.

    當然。這裡有很多因素需要考慮。需求實際上有兩個關鍵維度。性價比是一回事,價格是否實惠又是另一回事。顯然,如果有人根本沒有足夠的錢買車,那麼這輛車的性價比再高也無濟於事。你可以擁有無限的價值,但如果有人沒有足夠的資金購買這輛車,他們根本買不到。所以區分這兩點非常重要,我認為人們非常渴望購買我們的汽車,但顯然,如果他們沒有足夠的錢購買,他們就買不起。所以我們必須讓汽車更實惠。

  • And effectively back in the U.S., our cars got almost $2,000 more expensive with the expiry of the tax credit on July 1 -- or the partial expiry. And we only dropped the price of the Standard Range Plus Model 3 by $1,000 -- or actually -- yes, by $1,000. So the base Model 3 actually got $1,000 more expensive, which seemed like a reasonable compromise. So that's essentially what I mean. We feel like this is sometimes just have these sort of pretty absurd notions like if demand is high, you can't just charge any price. Like you cannot charge any price. I think making our cars more affordable is also fundamentally part of the Tesla mission. So yes. Is there anything you want to add?

    而回到美國,隨著7月1日稅收抵免政策的到期(或部分到期),我們的汽車價格實際上上漲了近2,000美元。我們只將標準續航升級版 3 型的價格降低了 1000 美元——或者說——是的,降低了 1000 美元。所以,Model 3 基本款的價格實際上上漲了 1000 美元,這似乎是一個合理的折衷方案。這就是我的意思。我們覺得有時候人們會有一些相當荒謬的想法,例如如果需求很高,就不能隨意定價。就像你不能收取任何費用一樣。我認為,讓我們的汽車更經濟實惠也是特斯拉使命的根本組成部分。是的。您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes, I'll just add to that. I agree completely. What I'll add is that, generally speaking, within the Model 3 lineup, the pricing adjustments for our higher-churn cars was slightly more than that for the Standard Plus. So we'll see how the data plays out on this as we take in more orders, but the expectation is that our mix will move towards higher trim to some extent offsetting some of the ASP adjustments from the pricing changes. And one other thing I'll add is that we are focusing on a couple of markets as well to target and to identify some of our sales, and so some of our pricing adjustments reflect those elements of that strategy.

    是的,我再補充一點。我完全同意。我還要補充一點,總的來說,在 Model 3 產品線中,高週轉率車型的價格調整幅度略高於標準版 Plus 車型。所以,隨著我們接到更多訂單,我們將看看數據會如何變化,但預計我們的產品組合將在一定程度上向高配車型傾斜,從而抵消價格變化帶來的部分平均售價調整。另外,我還想補充一點,我們也在重點關注幾個市場,以鎖定目標並確定一些銷售機會,因此我們的一些價格調整也反映了該策略的這些要素。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Essentially, we expect average selling prices to be the same within a few percentage points.

    是的。總體而言,我們預期平均售價將保持不變,誤差在幾個百分點之內。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • That's correct.

    沒錯。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Generally on ASP, as we noted in the letter, it was roughly, even over the course of the quarter, stabilized around $50,000. And we have good visibility into where our ASPs are going based on order data. And so that gives us 1 to 2 months of lead as to where our actual recognized ASPs will be. And so I would expect some adjustment to our Model 3 ASPs as a result of this pricing change, but the trim mix will offset some of that. And we continue to make great progress on cost efficiencies. And so overall in net, our expectation is that the Model 3 gross margin will continue to grow.

    正如我們在信中提到的,平均售價總體上,即使在本季度,也大致穩定在 50,000 美元左右。我們可以根據訂單數據清楚地了解平均售價的走勢。因此,這給了我們 1 到 2 個月的時間來了解我們實際認可的 ASP 的位置。因此,我預計此次價格調整將對我們的 Model 3 平均售價進行一些調整,但配置組合的調整將抵銷部分影響。我們在提高成本效益方面持續取得巨大進展。因此,總體而言,我們預計 Model 3 的毛利率將持續成長。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. On the gross margin point, like the full self-driving is just an extremely important part of the margin calculation, and the features for full self-driving are -- only a portion of them have rolled out. So the revenue recognition on the full self-driving option is limited at first until those features roll out. And also, the demand for the full self-driving package is limited because the features are mostly prospective instead of current. But as those features roll out, I would expect the take rate for full self-driving to increase significantly as well as the recognition -- revenue recognition of full self-driving to obviously match the rollout of the product. So the gross margin over time will be really quite compelling when factoring in the full self-driving option, which is, yes, accounted to $7,000 in mid-August. And that number will increase over time.

    是的。就毛利率而言,完全自動駕駛只是毛利率計算中極其重要的一部分,而完全自動駕駛的功能——目前只有一部分已經推出。因此,在全自動駕駛功能推出之前,其收入確認最初會受到限制。此外,由於全自動駕駛套件的功能大多是前瞻性的,而不是目前的,因此對全自動駕駛套件的需求有限。但隨著這些功能的推出,我預計完全自動駕駛的普及率將大幅提高,同時完全自動駕駛的收入確認也將明顯與產品的推出相符。因此,考慮到完全自動駕駛選項(是的,該選項在 8 月中旬的成本為 7,000 美元),隨著時間的推移,毛利率將非常可觀。而且隨著時間的推移,這個數字還會增加。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • The second question is many of us who follow Tesla closely are incredibly excited about Battery and Powertrain Investor Day and its technology implications. Can you provide us any more detail on when this will be and what will be covered?

    第二個問題是,我們這些密切關注特斯拉的人都對電池和動力系統投資者日及其技術意義感到無比興奮。您能否提供更多關於時間安排和內容方面的資訊?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think for our Battery Day, we're going to do a comprehensive review of cell chemistry, module and pack architecture and a manufacturing plan that has a clear road map to a terawatt hour per year. The timing for this probably is about 6 months, like maybe February or March next year, show and tell.

    是的,我認為在我們的電池日上,我們將對電池化學、模組和電池組架構以及製造計劃進行全面審查,該計劃將有明確的路線圖,最終實現每年1太瓦時的產能。這件事大概會在6個月後發生,例如明年二月或三月,屆時會進行展示與講解。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Great. Thank you very much. The next question is you stated on the Q4 2018 earnings call that customer service was a personal priority for 2019. Can you update us on what has been done to date to ensure that all owners are receiving an industry-leading customer experience?

    偉大的。非常感謝。下一個問題是,您在 2018 年第四季財報電話會議上表示,客戶服務是 2019 年的個人優先事項。能否向我們介紹一下,為了確保所有業主都能獲得業界領先的客戶體驗,目前都採取了哪些措施?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Sure. I meet with the service team multiple times a week and get daily updates on the reliability of the vehicle. We -- the best service, of course, is no service. Like that's the vehicle just -- reliability and quality being so good that service is rarely required. That's what the main goal is like, eliminate the need for service. Then in terms of increasing service resources, we're opening service centers as fast as we can and have already opened 25 new service locations this quarter, and that will increase -- the rate of service center opening will increase dramatically in through the course of this year as well as more Mobile Service. Mobile Service is really great because it's like we just come to you and fix the car wherever you are. And it's hard to beat that for convenience. For parts delivery, we've made massive improvement to logistics for getting parts to service centers. Hey, Jerome, do you want to -- Jerome is helping to manage the service -- global service and...

    當然。我每週與服務團隊會面多次,並每天獲得有關車輛可靠性的最新資訊。我們——當然,最好的服務就是不提供服務。這輛車就是這樣——可靠性和品質都非常好,很少需要維修。這就是主要目標,消除對服務的需求。在增加服務資源方面,我們正在以最快的速度開設服務中心,本季已經開設了 25 個新的服務點,而且這個數字還會增加——今年服務中心的開設速度將大幅提高,行動服務也將增加。行動服務真的非常棒,因為我們可以直接上門為您修車,無論您在哪裡。就便利性而言,很難找到比這更好的選擇了。在零件配送方面,我們對向服務中心運送零件的物流進行了大幅改進。嘿,傑羅姆,你想…傑羅姆正在協助管理這項服務—全球服務…

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes. As you pointed out, the best service is no service. So we're trying to continue improving the quality of the cars. And we track this daily, and fewer and fewer service visits are required from the most recent cars that we're building. So we're on a good trend there. We also need a lot fewer work to finish the cars in the factory. Besides that, we stock way many more parts in all the service centers, and we ship everything same day pretty much so that people don't have to wait for cars -- for parts. And we accelerate service, and we increase capacity. There's a lot of improvements that we've already implemented and many more on the way. So I'm relatively optimistic, and I'm happy to help with the service team.

    是的。正如你所指出的,最好的服務就是不提供服務。所以我們正在努力不斷提高汽車的品質。我們每天都在追蹤這種情況,而且我們生產的最新汽車所需的維修保養次數越來越少。所以,我們在這方面正處於良好的發展趨勢。我們也需要減少很多工序才能在工廠完成汽車的組裝。除此之外,我們在所有服務中心都儲備了更多零件,而且我們幾乎當天就能發貨,這樣人們就不用為了零件而等待汽車了。我們加快服務速度,並提高產能。我們已經實施了許多改進措施,還有更多改進措施正在籌備中。所以我比較樂觀,也很樂意為服務團隊提供協助。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. They had the regional service heads in the U.S. at the factory last week, and it was incredibly helpful, just a closed loop on -- with service and production and with the software team. And for example, like a lot of service visits are just questions about how to use the car and...

    是的。上週,他們把美國的區域服務主管請到了工廠,這非常有幫助,形成了一個閉環——服務、生產和軟體團隊之間都有了溝通。例如,很多保養服務都只是問如何使用汽車等問題…

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • And it's the #1 visit is how to use Autopilot. So yes, a bit of education there helps.

    而排名第一的問題是「如何使用自動駕駛功能」。所以,接受一些相關教育是有幫助的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Like literally how do I turn it on.

    我到底該怎麼打開它?

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Like it's -- yes. It's like how do I turn it on. Okay. So just providing better feedback on user interface and virtually how do you turn it on. And yes, a whole bunch of things that are quite elementary to reduce service load.

    就像——是的。我該如何打開它?好的。所以,我們只是想提供更好的使用者介面回饋,以及如何實際開啟它。是的,有許多非常簡單的方法可以降低服務負載。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Okay. The next question is, in April, Gigafactory 1 had efficiency of about 23 out of the 35 gigawatt hours theoretical capacity. Has this been improved yet? And is Tesla still cell constrained? Are there any near-term plans to increase the plant theoretical capacity?

    好的。下一個問題是,4 月份,Gigafactory 1 的效率約為 35 吉瓦時理論產能的 23 吉瓦時。這個問題現在有改進嗎?特斯拉的電池容量仍然受限嗎?近期是否有增加工廠理論產能的計畫?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Drew?

    德魯?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • We have seen improvements in the 23 gigawatt hour number. We're in the high 20s now with the trajectory continuing upward. We're not...

    我們看到發電量達到 23 吉瓦時的目標有所提升。我們現在已經接近30%,而且趨勢仍在上升。我們不是…

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • So about 28-ish?

    大概28歲左右?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes, 28-ish. I would say we're not still constrained for any of our activities at the moment.

    是的,大概28歲左右。我認為目前我們的任何活動都沒有受到限制。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Cell volume is approximately matching the production ramp rate.

    電池體積與生產爬坡速率大致相符。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Great. Thank you very much. And the last question is what is the new Lathrop facility.

    偉大的。非常感謝。最後一個問題是,拉思羅普新設施是什麼?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Nothing major. It's a parts distribution warehouse.

    沒什麼大事。這是一個零件配送倉庫。

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes. We're optimizing the real estate, trying to consolidate everything under one roof, reduce the cost. There's really nothing special there.

    是的。我們正在優化房地產佈局,並努力將所有設施集中在一處,以降低成本。那裡其實沒什麼特別的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Okay. Thank you very much. Latif, we can start the Q&A question queue on the call.

    好的。非常感謝。Latif,我們可以開始在通話中進行問答環節了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our first question comes from the line of Dan Galves of Wolfe Research.

    我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

  • Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Congrats on the $5 billion cash number. I'm halfway expecting some headlines tomorrow of Tesla's got too much cash on the balance sheet. I was wondering if you could update us on Gigafactory China. Don't have a great sense of what delivery volumes in China are for Model 3 at the moment. Some sources are around maybe 3,000 or 4,000 per month. What have you seen in terms of order flow and demand since you announced pricing at a local product that gives you confidence that you can get to 3,000 per week type of demand in that market?

    恭喜現金儲備達50億美元。我感覺明天可能會出現特斯拉資產負債表上現金過多的新聞標題。我想請您介紹一下Gigafactory China的最新情況。目前我對Model 3在中國的交付量不太了解。有些來源每月可能達到 3000 或 4000 左右。自從您宣布本地產品定價以來,您在訂單量和需求方面看到了什麼?這種定價是否讓您有信心在該市場達到每週 3000 件的需求量?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • I -- yes. I mean, we don't talk too much about like detailed price plans, but I mean if you're asking like what do I think the long-term demand for Model 3 is in Greater China region, I think it's about -- I mean from Shanghai Gigafactory, I think it's actually -- long-term demand is about 5,000 a week.

    我——是的。我的意思是,我們不太談論詳細的價格計劃,但如果你問我對大中華區Model 3的長期需求有什麼看法,我認為大約是——我是說從上海超級工廠來看,我認為實際上——長期需求大約是每週5000輛。

  • Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Sounds good. And have you considered potentially sourcing cars to Europe from that China plant at all?

    好的。聽起來不錯。你們有沒有考慮過從中國工廠向歐洲購買汽車?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • No. Our plan is to -- well, to source cars to sort of greater Europe area from Fremont, California, and until we have European Gigafactory operational. And that's -- but that's probably a couple years before -- it's probably 2021 before we have an operational Gigafactory in Europe. And so until that time, we will source from California. Yes. It's like -- this is again speculation. It's my opinion, but so what I think, say, long-term demand is for Model 3, it's probably 15,000 units a week globally, something like that.

    不。我們的計劃是——嗯,從加州弗里蒙特向大歐洲地區供應汽車,直到我們的歐洲超級工廠投入運作。而且──但那可能還要幾年──可能要等到 2021 年我們才能在歐洲擁有一座投入營運的超級工廠。因此,在此之前,我們將繼續從加州採購。是的。這就像——這又是猜測。這是我的看法,我認為,比如說,Model 3 的長期需求量,全球每週大概是 15,000 輛左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉的詩句。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • I was wondering if you can comment about whether you felt that Q2 benefited from consumers in the U.S. sort of rushing out to buy Model 3s in advance of the declining federal tax credit, a phenomenon that you sort of saw in Q4. And part of the reason I ask is, at least by my analysis, it looks like maybe 70% of the Model 3s sold in the quarter were in the U.S., which is sort of higher than your normalized percentage of U.S. sales. And so do you feel that, that phenomenon may have occurred in Q2? And are you still confident that Q3 deliveries can improve sequentially? And beyond the data point that you provided on the call that the orders quarter data are better than last quarter. Is there anything else you can point to that provides that confidence?

    我想請您評論一下,您是否覺得第二季度受益於美國消費者在聯邦稅收抵免減少之前搶購Model 3,這種現像在第四季度也有所體現。我之所以這麼問,部分原因是,至少根據我的分析,該季度售出的 Model 3 中,可能有 70% 是在美國售出的,這比你們通常認為的美國銷量百分比要高一些。所以你認為這種現象可能在第二季發生過嗎?您仍然有信心第三季的交付量能夠季比改善嗎?除了您在電話會議上提供的數據點,即本季度訂單數據比上一季要好之外,還有其他因素。你還能指出其他什麼讓你更有信心嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think we'll -- demand in Q3 will exceed Q2. It has thus far, and I think we'll see some acceleration of that. And then I think Q4 will be, I think, very strong. So we expect like quarter-over-quarter improvements. I think Q1 next year will be tough. I think Q3 and 4 will be good. Q1 will be tough. Q2 will be not as bad but still tough. And then I would say like Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.

    是的。我認為第三季的需求將超過第二季。目前來看確實如此,而且我認為這種趨勢還會加速發展。我認為第四季會非常強勁。所以我們預計會有類似季度季比改善的情況。我認為明年第一季會很艱難。我認為第三季和第四季會不錯。第一季會很艱難。第二季度情況不會像第一季那麼糟糕,但仍然很艱難。然後我覺得明年第三季和第四季將會非常精彩。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes. Just to add on the tax credit step-down, so the step-down from Q2 to Q3 was significantly lower than the step-down from Q4 to Q1. It's also important to keep in mind that there's seasonality in the auto business in Q1, which also is part of the impact. But generally speaking, our order rates so far this quarter is higher than where we were at this point in Q2, and we haven't seen a significant impact on U.S.-based orders as a result of the step-down.

    是的。補充一下稅收抵免遞減的情況,第二季到第三季的遞減幅度明顯低於第四季到第一季的遞減幅度。此外,還要注意的是,第一季汽車產業存在季節性波動,這也是造成影響的一部分原因。但總的來說,本季迄今為止我們的訂單量高於第二季同期水平,而且由於降級措施,我們尚未看到對美國訂單產生重大影響。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. If I could just follow up. Elon, I'm wondering if you can comment on whether you believe Model 3 is having any cannibalization impact on S and X sales or why you think that -- or why else there might be sort of a structural step-down in the demand and delivery levels relative to what we've seen over the last 5 or 6 years?

    好的。如果可以的話,我想跟進一下。伊隆,我想請你談談你認為 Model 3 是否會對 Model S 和 Model X 的銷量造成蠶食效應,或者你為什麼這麼認為——或者,除了上述原因之外,為什麼需求和交付水平相對於過去 5 或 6 年的情況會出現某種結構性下降?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Actually, we were just talking about this earlier today. We're not quite sure ourselves. I think there's some cannibalization. In fact, there may be false expectation in the market that there's like some big overhaul coming for S and X, which then cause people to hesitate to buy if they think there's some like radical redesign coming, which is why I've emphasized publicly that this is not the case. The Model S and X today are radically better than the ones that -- when we first started production, especially S, like I say, like 2013 or 2012 Model S compared to today's Model S, night and day. In fact, I still run into people I knew who have like 2013 Model S, and they think it hasn't changed. And I'm like it is dramatically better in every way.

    事實上,我們今天早些時候正好談到這件事。我們自己也不太確定。我認為這裡存在著一些蠶食現象。事實上,市場上可能存在一種錯誤的預期,認為S和X將會進行一些重大的改款,這會導致人們因為認為會有某種激進的重新設計而猶豫是否購買,這就是為什麼我公開強調事實並非如此。如今的 Model S 和 Model X 比我們剛開始生產時的車型要好得多,尤其是 Model S,就像我說的,2013 年或 2012 年的 Model S 與今天的 Model S 相比,簡直是天壤之別。事實上,我還會遇到一些我認識的人,他們開的是 2013 年 Model S,而且他們認為這款車沒什麼變化。我覺得它在各方面都好太多了。

  • But we don't do model years. We just roll in improvements as they come. So I think there is maybe a communications issue where people don't realize just how much better the S and X are today than when we first started. And we actually want to address that communications issue and just get a better understanding, and they're -- from the front lines like what -- demand should be higher for S and X than it is, and we'll get to the bottom of it and fix it.

    但我們不區分車型年份。我們會根據實際情況逐步改進。所以我覺得可能有溝通問題,人們沒有意識到如今的 S 和 X 比我們剛開始的時候好多少。我們確實想解決這個溝通問題,更了解情況,例如第一線人員反映,S 和 X 的需求應該比現在更高,我們會找出原因並解決這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐·羅斯納。

  • Xin Yu - Research Associate

    Xin Yu - Research Associate

  • It's Edison on for Emmanuel. Just first question on the guidance. I know previously there was a target out there of 25% kind of on the S, X and Model 3. Just wondering, is the updated one, is that suggesting that that's no longer in play for the year? Or kind of what are the implications with today's update?

    艾迪森正在為伊曼紐爾上場。關於指導意見,我先問一個問題。我知道之前Model S、Model X和Model 3的降價目標大概是25%。我想知道,這次更新是不是代表今年的降價目標已經取消了?或者說,今天的更新究竟會帶來哪些影響?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Well, if you factor in the full self-driving option, I think it is in play for the year. We just need to get the features done, make sure they're great, roll them out and recognize revenue and increase the take rate on full self-driving. But also for the existing fleet, there's a very significant opportunity to upgrade the existing fleet to full self-driving since most of the fleet has not purchased this option yet. So there's a significant margin potential for the existing fleet to upgrade to full self-driving, which most of the fleet can. So yes, absolutely, I think like, long term, we are talking 25%, 30%. Not -- long term meaning like a year. Long term like in Tesla vernacular. That 30% gross margin is, I think, quite likely.

    嗯,如果把完全自動駕駛選項考慮進去,我認為今年是有可能實現的。我們只需要把這些功能做好,確保它們足夠出色,然後推出它們,實現收入,並提高全自動駕駛的普及率。但對於現有車隊而言,也存在著一個非常重要的機會,可以將現有車隊升級為完全自動駕駛,因為大多數車隊尚未購買此選項。因此,現有車隊升級到完全自動駕駛具有很大的潛力,而大多數車隊都可以做到這一點。所以,是的,絕對的,我認為從長遠來看,我們談論的是 25%、30%。不——長期指的是像一年左右的時間。用特斯拉的話來說,就是「長期」。我認為30%的毛利率很有可能。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes. We continue to take significant costs out of the Model 3 in particular as well, and Jerome can comment further on this. But every week -- nearly every week, we hit record lows on labor content to build the vehicle. And we saw an ASP adjustment reduction in Model 3 from Q1 to Q2, yet the gross profit on the vehicle expanded, attributed to the cost reduction efforts that are underway.

    是的。我們也持續大幅降低 Model 3 的成本,Jerome 可以進一步評論。但幾乎​​每週,我們都會將車輛製造所需的人力成本降至歷史新低。我們看到 Model 3 的平均售價從第一季到第二季度有所下降,但該車型的毛利卻有所增長,這歸功於正在進行的成本削減工作。

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Our labor costs are more than 50% reduction in 1 year. Yes, it's progressing every quarter.

    一年內,我們的勞動成本降低了50%以上。是的,每個季度都在取得進展。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's worth like -- so what the labor hours were quarter-over-quarter?

    是的,它的價值就像——那麼,季度環比工時是多少?

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Reduced in half, yes, since Q3 last year. But it's also all the (inaudible) the spares. The scrap is reduced to pretty much nothing, reduced 90% year-over-year. Spares reduced more than half also. So our goal is to make the cars more affordable, and so we're pushing every day, yes. And every week, we hit records on most lines, yes, and in terms of output and cost per unit, yes, we're in very good dynamic and a level of fiscal discipline that I have not -- we have not had in the past.

    是的,比去年第三季減少了一半。但還有所有的(聽不清楚)備用零件。廢料幾乎完全減少,比前一年減少了 90%。備件數量也減少了一半以上。所以我們的目標是讓汽車更實惠,因此我們每天都在努力,是的。是的,我們每週在大多數產品線上都創下紀錄;就產量和單位成本而言,是的,我們處於非常好的動態狀態,並且擁有我過去從未有過的財政紀律水平。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Agreed, yes. So like from a core financial health standpoint, I think -- I'd just like to echo Jerome's words. Like I think Tesla's fiscal discipline is dramatically better than times in the past.

    同意,沒錯。所以從核心財務健康的角度來看,我認為──我只想附和一下傑羅姆的話。我認為特斯拉的財務紀律比以往有了顯著改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha of JMP Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Joseph Osha。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Listen, listening to you talk about mix here and the fact that you're running a single shift at your S and X facilities in Fremont, I'm wondering, is there maybe some potential to reconfigure the floorspace there a bit? And is that something that you're thinking about?

    聽你談到這裡混合使用的情況,以及你在弗里蒙特的 S 和 X 工廠實行單班制的事實,我想知道,那裡的空間是否有可能重新配置一下?這是你在考慮的事情嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Well, we are reconfiguring the floorspace in Fremont, and there's like quite a lot of factory space that's currently taken up with the S/X parts warehousing, parts for the S/X line. And we don't really need that. So that's where we're putting a lot of the Model Y activity. Jerome, do you want to...

    我們正在重新配置在弗里蒙特工廠的廠房空間,目前工廠裡有相當多的空間被 S/X 零件倉庫佔用,這些零件是 S/X 系列的。我們其實不需要那個。所以,這就是我們把許多 Model Y 的活動都投入在這方面的原因。傑羅姆,你想…

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes, where we're improving the material delivery for S and X just like we have done for Model 3, we've seen some radical improvements. We reduced production part warehousing costs by, again, 90%, 9-0, since Q3 last year. And so we're making a lot of room. We're much more efficient with parts delivery. It helps that we're increasing production actually. And so that space that we've cleared out, I'm looking at it right now, in Fremont, we're just going to put Model Y stuff in there. So if you visit the factory from, I would say, every 6 months, you'd have a hard time recognizing and finding your way, yes. It's constantly changing and evolving, yes.

    是的,就像我們之前對 Model 3 所做的那樣,我們正在改進 Model S 和 Model X 的材料交付,我們已經看到了一些根本性的改進。自去年第三季以來,我們再次將生產零件倉儲成本降低了 90%,即 9 比 0。因此,我們正在騰出很多空間。我們的零件配送效率大大提高。實際上,產量增加對生產有幫助。所以,我們現在在弗里蒙特騰出的那塊空間,我正看著它,我們打算在那裡放置 Model Y 的配件。所以,如果你每隔六個月左右去一次工廠,你肯定會很難認出工廠,也很難找到路,是的。是的,它一直在不斷變化和發展。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Just like I said, what's interesting about this factory is -- both Fremont and Giga, is like just the rate of improvement, which is not slowing down, has been incredible. It's like -- you're just like you can feel it and see it.

    是的。正如我所說,這家工廠的有趣之處在於——無論是弗里蒙特工廠還是吉加工廠,其改進速度都非常驚人,而且這種改進速度還沒有放緩。就像──你能感覺到它,也能看到它。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And just as a follow-on then, could we see you manage to make 8,000 -- 7,500, 8,000 Model 3s in Fremont by the end of the year, you think?

    那麼,作為後續問題,您認為到今年年底,您能否在弗里蒙特生產 8,000 輛 Model 3 – 7,500 輛,或者 8,000 輛呢?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean I feel confident. It's -- let's just say that the trend is very clearly towards being able to get to 10,000 vehicles a week, of which that would be -- there is -- rough number is like 8,300 to 8,600 Model 3s and the balance in S and X. So sort of 1,600 to 1,800 S/X and like -- in round numbers, 8,500 3s, 1,500 S/X per week but probably a bit more than that.

    是的。我的意思是,我覺得很有信心。這麼說吧,目前的趨勢很明顯是朝著每週生產1萬輛汽車的目標邁進,其中——大概——有個粗略的數字,大約是8300到8600輛Model 3,其餘的是Model S和Model X。所以大概每週會有1600到1800輛Model S/X,以及8500輛Model 3和1500輛Model S/X,但實際數量可能會略多一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Dan Levy of Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的丹·利維。

  • Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about your reg credits, in particular, the non-ZEV piece. You're not disclosing the ZEV piece anymore but just a couple questions on this. First, how can we think -- is there any quarterly cadence to think about this? And then what's the composition of this? Is this going purely to European OEMs? There's obviously one automaker that you've agreed with. I don't know if there are any others that you're looking at. And lastly, to what extent can you -- or are you willing to sacrifice pricing in Europe to sell higher volumes to generate more reg credits? And are you having discussions with other automakers on this front?

    我想詢問一下您的註冊學分,特別是關於非零排放車輛 (ZEV) 部分。您不再公開 ZEV 的相關內容,但我還有幾個問題想問您。首先,我們該如何思考──是否有季度性的思考節奏?那麼,它的成分是什麼呢?這是否只面向歐洲的原始設備製造商?顯然,你認同的汽車製造商有一家。我不知道你還在關注哪些其他選擇。最後,您在多大程度上能夠(或願意)犧牲歐洲的定價來提高銷量,從而獲得更多的監管積分?你們是否就此與其他汽車製造商進行討論?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Zach?

    扎克?

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes. On your question about the cadence of regulatory credits. It is -- generally, as I've commented in the past, we expect regulatory credits to become a more meaningful part of our business. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, it's very difficult to forecast them. As you saw from Q1 to Q2, that declined. And so as you model regulatory credits in Q3, I would not expect a significant increase in regulatory credits, although it's hard to forecast exactly.

    是的。關於您提出的監管信貸發放節奏的問題。總的來說,正如我過去評論過的那樣,我們預計監管信貸將成為我們業務中更有意義的一部分。按季度來看,很難預測這些數字。正如你從第一季到第二季所看到的,這個數字有所下降。因此,在您對第三季的監管積分進行建模時,我預計監管積分不會大幅增加,儘管很難準確預測。

  • The regulatory credits composition is a mixture of these particular deals that are onetime. There's also some that are production-based over time. The production-based ones are easier to forecast because it's based on cars that we build, and we get an offset to that way. The deal-specific ones are lumpier, which makes it more difficult.

    監管信貸構成是這些一次性特定交易的組合。還有一些是基於生產情況隨時間變化的。基於生產的預測更容易,因為它是基於我們生產的汽車,這樣我們就能得到一定的補償。具體到每筆交易,情況就比較複雜,這使得處理起來更加困難。

  • And then your final question was on does it make sense to sacrifice pricing to drive regulatory credit in certain markets. It might. I'm not sure if we've specifically gone into the details of that. But generally, we're selling cars in markets at the prices we think are appropriate, and the regulatory credit is something that traditional -- we generally try not to run the business based on regulatory credit revenue.

    你的最後一個問題是,在某些市場中,犧牲價格來獲得監管認可是否合理。有可能。我不確定我們是否已經詳細討論過這個問題。但總的來說,我們在市場上以我們認為合適的價格銷售汽車,而監管信貸是傳統的做法——我們通常盡量不以監管信貸收入為基礎來經營業務。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • The regulatory credit is like -- I mean it's a relatively small part of the equation for Tesla. And the -- I think the ZEV credit situation, I think really needs reform because the market for ZEV credits is negligible.

    監管補貼就像——我的意思是,對於特斯拉來說,這只是等式中相對較小的部分。而且——我認為零排放車輛積分制度確實需要改革,因為零排放車輛積分市場微乎其微。

  • Now some of what's happening here is the other manufacturers are kind of like waiting to see how their EV sales do before buying any credits from Tesla. And so it kind of depends on how that goes. If they sell more EVs, then there's not really a need to do a deal with Tesla. And if they sell fewer, then there is.

    現在的情況是,其他一些製造商都在觀望他們的電動車銷量如何,然後再決定是否從特斯拉購買任何積分。所以,這在某種程度上取決於事情的發展。如果他們能賣出更多電動車,那就沒有必要和特斯拉達成協議了。如果銷量減少,那就表示確實存在這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的科林·魯什。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Can you walk us through the plan for battery sourcing in China? How many -- how much of the supply is going to come from internally produced batteries? How much is coming from externally? And what's your expectation around cost per watt hours as you start to ramp?

    能否詳細介紹一下在中國採購電池的計畫?其中有多少——有多少供應將來自國內生產的電池?其中有多少資金來自外部?隨著產能逐步提升,您預計每瓦時的成本是多少?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • I mean I don't know if we want to talk about the details of battery supply, but we believe we have a good handle on -- we don't expect to be cell-constrained in China for the next year. I don't know. Drew, what do you think?

    我的意思是,我不知道我們是否想討論電池供應的細節,但我們相信我們已經很好地掌控了局面——我們預計未來一年在中國不會面臨電池供應短缺的問題。我不知道。德魯,你怎麼看?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes. That's what our plan looks like right now. In terms of internal versus external, I think we should wait until we have our discussion early next year. But yes, we have agreements in place with all the -- we're good for the next year, as you said, Elon.

    是的。這就是我們目前的計劃。至於內在因素與外在因素,我認為我們應該等到明年初再進行討論。是的,我們已經和所有相關方達成了協議——正如你所說,埃隆,我們明年的計劃都沒問題。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean I think we probably need to like just do like a reset like -- I'm not saying master plan part 3, but it's really like, to some degree, the Battery Day will be kind of like master plan part 3, which is like, okay, how we get from kind of in the tens of gigawatt hours per year to multiple terawatt hours per year. That's a pretty giant-scale increase. And so yes, it's an increase of sort of roughly 100. Like if we're at 28 gigawatt hours right now -- well, actually, there is more than that when you count the factories in Japan. So call it like a little over 30 to 35 or something like that. And how do we get to like 2 terawatt hours a year? (inaudible) 19 increase.

    是的。我的意思是,我覺得我們可能需要進行一次重置——我不是說要啟動“宏偉計劃”第三部分,但在某種程度上,“電池日”確實有點像是“宏偉計劃”第三部分,也就是探討如何從每年幾十吉瓦時增加到每年幾太瓦時。這是一個規模相當大的成長。所以,是的,大約增加了 100。例如我們現在有 28 吉瓦時——實際上,如果你把日本的工廠也算進去,那就不只這個數了。所以大概是30到35歲左右吧。我們要如何達到每年2太瓦時的發電量?(聽不清楚)增加 19。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • That's the way you have to think about it because that's what we need to do.

    你必須這樣想,因為這就是我們需要做的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, exactly. In order to really make fundamental shift in the world's energy usage and really transform things to a sustainable energy future, if you're not in the terawatt hour range, it's like it's a nice news story, but it's not fundamentally changing the energy equation.

    是的,正是如此。為了真正從根本上改變世界能源使用方式,真正實現永續能源的未來,如果你沒有達到太瓦時級別,那就像一個不錯的新聞故事,但並沒有從根本上改變能源格局。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And can I have a follow-up question around Model S and Model X saturation? Obviously, you guys have some ideas around how big that market is. How should we be thinking about sustainable volumes and pricing on those volumes? Obviously, we're seeing some lower numbers here, and I think that's a core element of what's going on with the story that as we see pricing drop and volumes drop, what are the right numbers to think about for you guys from a planning standpoint in terms of sell-through on both the Model S and Model X?

    好的。可以再問一個關於Model S和Model X市場飽和度的問題嗎?顯然,你們對這個市場有多大已經有了一些了解。我們應該如何考慮可持續的產量以及這些產量的定價?顯然,我們看到一些數字有所下降,我認為這是故事的核心要素,隨著價格和銷售量的下降,從規劃的角度來看,對於你們來說,Model S 和 Model X 的銷售情況,應該考慮哪些正確的數字?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think it's probably a bit too much focus on S and X. And the S and X are -- they are nice, but they're not -- and I think it's like without them, we couldn't spell sexy. So like the main reason -- well, not the main reason, but a reason is we want to keep spelling sexy. So that's -- not that I like -- that is a reason, I should say, not the main reason to keep going with S and X.

    是的。我覺得可能有點過度關注S和X了。 S和X——它們固然不錯,但它們並不是——我覺得如果沒有它們,我們就無法拼出「性感」這個詞。所以主要原因——好吧,不是主要原因,但其中一個原因是,我們想保持性感的拼字。所以,這——我並不喜歡——這只是一個原因,應該說,不是繼續使用 S 和 X 的主要原因。

  • But the story for Tesla future is fundamentally Model 3 and Model Y. And I think -- so like my guess is like long-term sales of -- long-term meaning couple years type thing, the demand for -- sales demand for 3 is like on order of 0.75 million units a year, and it's probably 1.25 million units a year for Model Y. So combined, it's like maybe 2 million from those 2 vehicles alone. And then S/X is like maybe 80,000 to 100,000 a year. So it's like 4% or 5% of the volume of 3 and Y. And then you throw like a truck in there, pickup truck and till the semi, it just gets smaller and smaller. So they are great products, but they are -- from a volume standpoint, they're not all that important in the long term.

    但特斯拉的未來故事根本上取決於Model 3和Model Y。我認為——就像我猜測的那樣,從長遠來看——這裡指的是幾年左右的銷售情況,Model 3的年銷量需求大約是75萬輛,Model Y的年銷量需求可能在125萬輛左右。所以,這兩款車加起來的年銷售量可能達到200萬輛。而 S/X 的年收入大概是 8 萬到 10 萬美元。所以它大概是 3 和 Y 體積的 4% 或 5%。然後你再把一輛卡車,皮卡車,一直到拖車,體積就越來越小了。所以它們是很棒的產品,但是——從銷售的角度來看,從長遠來看,它們並不是那麼重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

    下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮埃爾·費拉古。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • I'd like to ask you, Elon, about distribution. So you made like -- you guys made a big change at the beginning of the year, going from like an almost 100% online distribution model. You tried to push back on test drive and get people to buy the car, try it and return it if they don't like it. So could you give us an update on how it is progressing? Do you see this start becoming mostly like an online distribution -- following an online distribution model? And I saw you opened 25 new retail locations in the quarter. So how do you see your retail footprint evolving over time?

    埃隆,我想問你關於分銷的問題。所以你們在年初做出了很大的改變,從幾乎 100% 的線上分銷模式轉向了線下分銷模式。你試圖阻止人們試駕,讓他們買車後試駕,如果不滿意再退貨。可否向我們介紹一下目前的進展?你認為這會逐漸演變成以線上發行為主,遵循線上發行模式嗎?我看到你們本季新開了25家零售店。那麼,您認為您的零售業務佈局會如何隨著時間而演變?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • As I said, we opened 25 service locations. I think really what we find is that the word of mouth for Tesla is incredibly good. So once there's an increase of customers in a particular area, they love the cars and they talk to all their friends about it. And that's really what drives sales. So if you think of like a retail location is kind of like a viral seed in an area. It would grow organically by itself, but the retail location is actually is like a viral seed. It's not that -- they aren't needed. They're like an accelerant.

    正如我所說,我們開設了25個服務點。我認為我們發現,特斯拉的口碑非常好。所以一旦某個地區的顧客數量增加,他們就會喜歡上這些車,並向所有朋友談論它們。而這才是真正推動銷售的因素。所以你可以把零售店想像成一個區域內的病毒種子。它本身會自然而然地發展壯大,但零售店實際上就像一顆病毒種子。並非如此——它們並非必需品。它們就像助燃劑一樣。

  • But what is needed for sales in any given area, and I'd say this worldwide, frequently we've been told like this country is different or that country is different. I'm like people around the world pretty much want the same thing so -- in my experience. But they have to have a service location that's convenient. So it can't be like you've got to drive 5 hours to a service location. You have to have service. You have to have supercharging and charging all sorted out. You've got to have good consumer financing. And then the price must make sense. And any place where those 4 things are true, our sales are great. So we're rolling out service centers like crazy. Service centers are the key to sales, not the retail locations.

    但是,在任何特定地區,乃至全世界,銷售都需要什麼呢?我們常被告知,這個國家的情況不同,那個國家的情況也不同。我覺得世界各地的人們想要的東西大同小異——至少我的經驗是這樣的。但他們必須擁有一個交通便利的服務地點。所以,總不能像開車5小時到服務點那樣吧。你必須要有服務。你必須把超級充電和普通充電都搞定。你必須要有良好的消費信貸。而且價格也必須合理。只要這四點都成立,我們的銷售表現就會很好。所以我們正在瘋狂地建立服務中心。服務中心才是銷售的關鍵,而不是零售門市。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes, and we're going city by city on the service center point. We're looking at where our populations are of existing customers. We're mapping driving time from the customers to the service centers inclusive of traffic to improve densification of our service centers in the locations in which our customers currently reside. We do have areas that are underrepresented for service centers where the drive time is too long or there are populations don't have appropriate access to charging in the service centers. And we're working as fast as we can to get places up and running in those areas. So it's very systematically being mapped out with a focus on service and supercharging as opposed to a retail presence.

    是的,我們正在逐個城市設立服務中心。我們正在了解現有客戶群的分佈。我們正在繪製客戶到服務中心的駕駛時間圖(包括交通狀況),以提高我們客戶目前居住地附近服務中心的密度。有些地區的服務中心數量不足,因為這些地區的車程太長,或者當地居民無法輕鬆地在服務中心充電。我們正在盡最大努力加快這些地區的設施恢復運作。因此,它的規劃非常系統化,重點在於服務和動力提升,而不是零售業務。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Supercharging is incredibly important. You can't just have like 80% of the routes that somebody wants to take. You need 100% of the routes because a car is like -- it's really freedom to travel. Anything that inhibits freedom to travel impairs the fundamental value of the product.

    是的。超級充電至關重要。你不可能擁有別人想走的80%的路線。你需要 100% 的路線圖,因為開車就像是——它真的能帶來旅行的自由。任何限制旅行自由的因素都會損害產品的根本價值。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Or perceived.

    或人們所感知到的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, exactly. Real or perceived freedom to travel.

    是的,正是如此。實際的或感知到的旅行自由。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • So Elon, you mentioned the importance of full self-driving for gross margin. You've also mentioned the importance of China. Do you expect to be able to offer the full self-driving suite that you plan to offer in the U.S. and China, and I guess even in Europe where they've been also a little bit tougher on regulating?

    伊隆,你提到了完全自動駕駛對毛利率的重要性。您也提到了中國的重要性。您是否預計能夠提供您計劃在美國和中國提供的全套自動駕駛套件?我想,即使在歐洲,儘管那裡的監管也比較嚴格,您是否也能提供全套自動駕駛套件?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. We expect to be able to offer full self-driving actually everywhere except EU because there's just some committee rules that were put in place years ago that need to be changed. It's up -- from a technical standpoint, it's very doable, but we just need to work through the regulatory committees to get the regulatory approvals and rules changed. It's just -- it all just takes a bit longer than in other places. But I think we'll see a lot of pressure from our customers in Europe to have these rules changed so they can have access to full self-driving. And I think at the end of the day, the regulators will answer to the public. So I think it's just a temporary thing, and it's quite specific to EU rules. And we're just not present really when those rules were drafted. So that's what's got put in place. But they're making a ton of sense, but we just got to work through the process to change them.

    是的。我們預計除了歐盟以外,我們將能夠在世界各地提供完全自動駕駛服務,因為歐盟有一些多年前製定的委員會規則需要修改。從技術角度來看,這完全可行,但我們只需要與監管委員會溝通,以獲得監管部門的批准並修改相關規定。只是——這裡的一切所需時間都比其他地方要長一些。但我認為,我們將看到來自歐洲客戶的巨大壓力,要求改變這些規則,以便他們能夠使用完全自動駕駛技術。我認為歸根究底,監管機構要對公眾負責。所以我認為這只是暫時的,而且僅限於歐盟的規定。我們當時並不在場,所以這些規則的製定過程我們都不在場。所以,這就是目前採取的措施。但它們很有道理,只是我們需要走完修改流程。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • Okay. And then the second question is you mentioned service a number of times. There's obviously been some, I think, growing frustration with owners. And you mentioned parts availability, and you've issued the dealership model. But I guess how do you plan on increasing parts availability without the corresponding working capital commitment that would be required as the fleet continues to grow?

    好的。第二個問題是,您多次提到了服務。我認為,很明顯,人們對業主越來越感到不滿。您提到了零件供應情況,並且您已經發布了經銷商模式。但我想問的是,在車隊規模不斷擴大的情況下,如果沒有相應的營運資金投入,你們打算如何提高零件的供應能力呢?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • It's actually just taking the parts that were stored in a bunch of warehouses and just moving them to the service centers. And the thing that makes sense is, I think, to have the service centers where the parts are kind of all on the wall, and it's like a supermarket. Like you always know where the Cocoa Puffs are, and you just go meet there and go to grab it. And then you just replenish the shelves with parts. And so what we're basically putting all parts that are used more frequently than like 6 weeks literally on the walls of the service centers. There's no ordering of the part. You just go take it off shelf and put it on the car. We really want to get to not merely same-day service but same hour. Sort of like Jiffy Lube but applied generally to service.

    實際上,就是把儲存在各倉庫裡的零件運送到服務中心。我認為比較合理的做法是,把服務中心的零件都掛在牆上,就像超市一樣。就像你總是知道哪裡有可可泡芙,然後你直接去那裡碰面,去拿它。然後你只需要把零件補充到貨架上就行了。因此,我們基本上是將所有使用頻率超過 6 週的零件直接貼在服務中心的牆上。該零件沒有訂購訂單。你只需把它從貨架上取下來,放到車上就行了。我們真正想要的不僅是當天送達,而是當天送達。有點像快修店,但通常指的是汽車維修服務。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes. And specifically on the working capital piece of this, we actually have a significant amount of service parts inventory. The challenge is it's not just at the service centers. And so a lot of the lag that is experienced is we have to get the part from the distribution center to the service center. And so by moving -- by localizing the parts, I don't expect that to be a large working capital drain on the company. It might actually be the reverse where we don't need to store as many potentially.

    是的。具體來說,就營運資金而言,我們實際上擁有大量的維修零件庫存。問題在於,這不僅存在於服務中心。因此,我們遇到的許多延誤都是因為我們需要將零件從配送中心運送到服務中心。因此,透過轉移——透過零件在地化,我不認為這會對公司造成很大的營運資金消耗。實際上情況可能恰恰相反,我們可能不需要儲存那麼多東西。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And also just having parts, if I may add, if we made them internally or if they're made at a supplier, just sending them directly to the service center instead of like having them go through a bunch of distribution outlets. In fact, like when I was in China on my last trip, I was like asking the China team, "Hey, is there anything silly that we're doing that we should fix?" And they said, "Yes, well, several of the parts that require replacement are literally made in China, and then we end up shipping them to New Jersey and then back to China. And could we please just ship them like literally across the road?" And I'm like, yes, no problem. There's always like crazy things that happen, if you're like -- if you have a 45,000-person company and then just kind of basically stop doing silly things. It's, yes, a lot of what is needed for improvement.

    是的。另外,如果可以的話,我想補充一點,無論是我們內部生產的零件,還是供應商生產的零件,都可以直接送到服務中心,而不是透過很多分銷管道。事實上,就像我上次去中國的時候,我問中國團隊:“嘿,我們做的哪些蠢事需要改正?”他們說:“是的,嗯,一些需要更換的零件實際上是在中國製造的,然後我們最終把它們運到新澤西,然後再運回中國。”「我們能不能直接把它們送到馬路對面?」我回答說,好的,沒問題。如果你擁有一家 45,000 人的公司,然後基本上停止做傻事,那麼總是會發生一些瘋狂的事情。是的,這正是改進所需要的很多。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • And as the scale of the business increases, the economics of localization of things like parts distribution make a lot more sense, whereas in the past, when the company was smaller, having centralized centers was easier from a cost perspective. So the business -- because the company is growing so fast, as Elon has mentioned, we have to continue to redesign processes and systems to restabilize ourselves for the new plateau of volume, and then we'll grow again, and we'll need to rebuild those processes.

    隨著業務規模的擴大,零件分銷等本地化的經濟效益就更加顯著了,而過去公司規模較小時,從成本角度來看,設立集中式中心更容易。所以,正如埃隆所說,由於公司發展如此迅速,我們必須不斷重新設計流程和系統,以使我們自己重新穩定下來,迎接新的銷售高峰,然後我們將再次成長,我們將需要重建這些流程。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean Tesla is the only company that makes things in volume that is fully vertically integrated all the way through sales and service and charge and everything. So we really just need to look at total system efficiency and say if Tesla was the auto industry, how would we do it to maximize economic efficiency. And that's -- and then we're going kind of like recalculate that optimization as we achieve greater scale. We're confident we can achieve a fundamentally better economic efficiency than the rest of the auto industry.

    是的。我的意思是,特斯拉是唯一一家能夠大量生產產品,並且從銷售、服務、充電等所有環節都實現完全垂直整合的公司。所以,我們真正需要關注的是整個系統的效率,然後假設特斯拉代表整個汽車產業,我們會如何做才能最大限度地提高經濟效率。然後,隨著規模的擴大,我們會重新計算最佳化方案。我們有信心實現比汽車業其他企業更優的經濟效益。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you. Okay. Unfortunately, that's all the time we have for today. So thank you so much for all your questions, and we'll speak to you again in the next 3 months. Thank you.

    謝謝。好的。很遺憾,我們今天的時間就到此為止了。非常感謝大家提出的所有問題,我們將在接下來的三個月內再次與您交流。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    女士們、先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以在此時斷開線路。