特斯拉 (TSLA) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for your patience.

    女士們,先生們,美好的一天,感謝你們的耐心等待。

  • You've joined the Tesla Q2 2019 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast.

    您已加入 Tesla 2019 年第二季度財務業績和問答網絡直播。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference may be recorded.

    (操作員說明)作為提醒,本次會議可能會被錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Senior Director of Investor Relations, Martin Viecha.

    我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人,投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha。

  • Sir, you may begin.

    先生,您可以開始了。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you, Latif, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Second Quarter 2019 Q&A Webcast.

    謝謝 Latif,大家下午好,歡迎收聽特斯拉 2019 年第二季度網絡直播。

  • I'm joined today by Elon Musk, J.B. Straubel, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives.

    今天加入我的有 Elon Musk、J.B. Straubel、Zachary Kirkhorn 和其他一些高管。

  • Our Q3 results were announced at about 1:45 p.m.

    我們在下午 1 點 45 分左右公佈了第三季度業績。

  • Pacific Time in the update letter we published at the same link as this webcast.

    太平洋時間在我們發佈在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上的更新信中。

  • During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

    在這次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

  • These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

    這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

  • Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

    由於許多風險和不確定性,包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性,實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

    但在我們進入問答環節之前,埃隆有一些開場白。

  • Elon?

    埃隆?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • So last quarter, we delivered more than 95,000 vehicles, which is a record for Tesla.

    所以上個季度,我們交付了超過 95,000 輛汽車,這是特斯拉的記錄。

  • Put that in perspective, it's nearly an 80% increase in deliveries compared to the second quarter of last year.

    從這個角度來看,與去年第二季度相比,交付量增加了近 80%。

  • I think it's sometimes hard for people to appreciate when you have a large manufactured item with a complex global supply chain just how difficult that is.

    我認為,當您擁有具有復雜全球供應鏈的大型製造產品時,人們有時很難理解這是多麼困難。

  • I'm incredibly proud of the Tesla team for being able to do that.

    我為特斯拉團隊能夠做到這一點感到無比自豪。

  • I think this level of growth is possibly unprecedented.

    我認為這種增長水平可能是前所未有的。

  • It might be the fastest that any large complex manufactured item has grown in history.

    這可能是歷史上任何大型複雜製成品增長最快的。

  • So just, I think, really great work by the Tesla team to achieve that outcome, and we expect growth to continue in the future at -- for several years to come at the 50% to 100% level.

    因此,我認為,特斯拉團隊為實現這一結果所做的工作非常出色,我們預計未來幾年的增長將繼續保持在 50% 到 100% 的水平。

  • So as I said, I think that is not well appreciated how the quotas grow at that rate.

    正如我所說,我認為配額如何以這種速度增長並沒有得到很好的理解。

  • But achieving record number of deliveries is an important milestone and shows the rapid progress we've made in managing a global logistics and delivery operation at high volume.

    但實現創紀錄的交付數量是一個重要的里程碑,表明我們在管理全球物流和大批量交付運營方面取得了快速進展。

  • And as I said, all of this was achieved thanks to the tremendous hard work of the entire Tesla team.

    正如我所說,這一切都歸功於整個特斯拉團隊的巨大努力。

  • Model 3 is once again the best-selling premium vehicle in the U.S., outselling all of its gas-powered equivalents combined.

    Model 3 再次成為美國最暢銷的高檔汽車,銷量超過其所有汽油動力車型的總和。

  • In Europe, Model 3 is approaching sales levels of its established premium competitors, and it was awarded a 5-star rating from Euro NCAP earlier this month.

    在歐洲,Model 3 的銷售水平已接近其成熟的高端競爭對手,本月早些時候它獲得了 Euro NCAP 的 5 星評級。

  • This is in addition to Model 3 receiving an overall 5-star rating in the U.S. from NHTSA and -- including earning 5 stars in every category and subcategory and achieving the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested.

    這是對 Model 3 在美國從 NHTSA 獲得整體 5 星評級的補充,包括在每個類別和子類別中獲得 5 星,並在所有測試過的車輛中實現最低的受傷概率。

  • Motor Trend also recently selected Model S as the best vehicle they have ever tested in their 70-year history across all other cars.

    Motor Trend 最近還選擇 Model S 作為他們在 70 年曆史上測試過的所有其他汽車中最好的汽車。

  • So Motor Trend, which is arguably the leading authority in evaluating vehicles, the Motor Trend Car of the Year is the most coveted award.

    因此,可以說是評估車輛的權威機構,Motor Trend 年度汽車是最令人垂涎的獎項。

  • It's pretty incredible that they would say that Model S in their entire 70-year history is the best vehicle they have ever evaluated.

    令人難以置信的是,他們會說 Model S 在其整個 70 年的歷史中是他們評估過的最好的車輛。

  • This is despite Tesla not buying any advertising in Motor Trend, and it speaks to their journalistic integrity.

    儘管特斯拉沒有在 Motor Trend 上購買任何廣告,但這說明了他們的新聞誠信。

  • That's something special.

    那是特別的東西。

  • So -- and since the vehicle that they evaluated, we've actually made -- committed to advancements of both Model S and Model X, including our recent update of a new suspension with active damping capability and an all-new drivetrain that's capable of a 370-mile range in the Model S and a 325-mile range in the Model X. We've also issued numerous software updates and improvements that have made Model S and Model X faster, safer and added dozens of new features.

    所以 - 自從他們評估的車輛,我們實際上已經製造 - 致力於改進 Model S 和 Model X,包括我們最近更新的具有主動阻尼能力的新懸架和能夠Model S 的續航里程為 370 英里,Model X 的續航里程為 325 英里。我們還發布了許多軟件更新和改進,使 Model S 和 Model X 更快、更安全,並增加了許多新功能。

  • Just like Model 3, Model S and X have the hardware needed for future full self-driving capability.

    就像 Model 3 一樣,Model S 和 X 擁有未來完全自動駕駛能力所需的硬件。

  • As we look ahead to the rest of the year and into 2020, we remain focused on launching new vehicle and energy programs, further expanding on manufacturing operations and continuing to improve customer service.

    展望今年剩餘時間和 2020 年,我們將繼續專注於推出新的汽車和能源計劃,進一步擴大製造業務並繼續改善客戶服務。

  • We remain focused on international expansion because local production is essential to being cost-competitive.

    我們仍然專注於國際擴張,因為本地生產對於具有成本競爭力至關重要。

  • By the end of this year, we will -- we expect to be producing Model 3s in volume out of Gigafactory Shanghai.

    到今年年底,我們將——我們預計將在上海超級工廠批量生產 Model 3。

  • And as you can see from the photos in our quarterly letter, the equipment installation there is progressing well.

    從我們季度信中的照片中可以看出,那裡的設備安裝進展順利。

  • We also have to finalize a location for our European Gigafactory before the end of the year.

    我們還必須在今年年底之前確定我們歐洲超級工廠的位置。

  • Here in Fremont, preparations for Model Y production have already begun.

    在弗里蒙特,Model Y 的生產準備工作已經開始。

  • Since Model Y has high component overlap with Model 3, it should be -- we expect it to be a lot easier to ramp.

    由於 Model Y 與 Model 3 的組件重疊度很高,因此應該——我們預計它會更容易上坡。

  • It's something in the order of 3/4 of all the parts are common between Model 3 and Model Y. And we expect many manufacturing costs for Model Y, despite additional content, to be approximately the same as Model 3.

    Model 3 和 Model Y 之間大約有 3/4 的零件是通用的。我們預計 Model Y 的許多製造成本,儘管有額外的內容,與 Model 3 大致相同。

  • This quarter, we opened 25 new service locations and added more than 100 Mobile Service vehicles to our fleet.

    本季度,我們開設了 25 個新的服務點,並為我們的車隊增加了 100 多輛移動服務車輛。

  • And although our fleets have a total -- Tesla fleet size has doubled in the past 12 months, which is again just kind of a crazy thing to consider that Tesla is almost doubling all cumulative production every year.

    儘管我們的車隊總數——特斯拉車隊規模在過去 12 個月中翻了一番,考慮到特斯拉每年的所有累計產量幾乎翻了一番,這又是一件瘋狂的事情。

  • This is a totally mad thing to make as many cars in a year as we've made in our entire history and to have that be an ongoing trend, I think it's difficult for people to really feel an exponential.

    在一年內製造與我們在整個歷史上製造的汽車一樣多的汽車,並使其成為一個持續的趨勢,這完全是一件瘋狂的事情,我認為人們很難真正感受到指數級增長。

  • We didn't evolve to feel an exponential.

    我們沒有進化到感覺呈指數增長。

  • We can feel a linear, but we can only understand an exponential at a cognitive level.

    我們可以感受到線性,但我們只能在認知層面上理解指數。

  • But Tesla is expanding at an exponential rate.

    但特斯拉正在以指數速度擴張。

  • And in fact, if you look at the Tesla cumulative deliveries chart like year-over-year cumulative deliveries, it's about the cleanest exponential graph I've ever seen.

    事實上,如果你看一下特斯拉的累計交付量圖表,比如同比累計交付量,它是我見過的最清晰的指數圖表。

  • So obviously, if that trend continues, the results, I think, are going to be pretty amazing.

    所以很明顯,如果這種趨勢繼續下去,我認為結果將會非常驚人。

  • And I think that will continue.

    我認為這將繼續下去。

  • So we've been able to improve service considerably.

    因此,我們已經能夠大大改善服務。

  • You can imagine that if -- obviously, if we're doubling our fleet every year, managing service is quite difficult.

    您可以想像,如果 - 顯然,如果我們每年將我們的機隊增加一倍,那麼管理服務是相當困難的。

  • It's like a total -- because service scales as not just with new production but as the total fleet scales, service needs to scale.

    這就像一個整體——因為服務不僅隨著新生產的擴展,而且隨著車隊總數的擴展,服務也需要擴展。

  • And we want to scale service in a way that's sensible from a cost standpoint.

    我們希望以從成本角度來看合理的方式擴展服務。

  • But it's really quite a difficult challenge to scale.

    但規模化確實是一個相當困難的挑戰。

  • Nonetheless, we've made massive improvements in service, especially in parts waiting -- time to wait for parts and collision repair.

    儘管如此,我們在服務方面做出了巨大的改進,尤其是在零件等待方面——等待零件和碰撞修復的時間。

  • And we've in-sourced a great deal of the collision repair activities, which has had, I think, quite a good effect on customer happiness.

    我們已經內購了大量的碰撞修復活動,我認為這對客戶滿意度產生了很好的影響。

  • And this will continue in the months to come.

    這將在未來幾個月繼續。

  • So it's a very important milestone.

    所以這是一個非常重要的里程碑。

  • I think we believe Tesla has -- is now at the point of being self-funding, and we expect to be cash flow -- free cash flow positive in future quarters with the possible temporary exceptions around the launch and ramp of new product.

    我認為我們相信特斯拉已經——現在正處於自籌資金的階段,我們預計將成為現金流——未來幾個季度的自由現金流為正,新產品的推出和推出可能會出現暫時的例外情況。

  • From a profitability standpoint, we expect to be probably around breakeven this quarter and profitable next quarter.

    從盈利能力的角度來看,我們預計本季度可能會實現盈虧平衡,下個季度將實現盈利。

  • So that's -- I feel pretty confident about that.

    所以那是 - 我對此非常有信心。

  • And then in terms of deliveries, we expect deliveries to be between 360,000 and 400,000.

    然後在交付方面,我們預計交付量在 360,000 到 400,000 之間。

  • We expect production to be a slightly higher number than that and demand to be a slightly higher number than that.

    我們預計產量將略高於該數字,需求將略高於該數字。

  • So people often confuse deliveries, production and orders for Tesla, and they're actually 3 different numbers.

    所以人們經常混淆特斯拉的交付、生產和訂單,它們實際上是 3 個不同的數字。

  • So yes, you obviously cannot deliver more than you make, and so typically, we will make more than we deliver.

    所以是的,你顯然不能提供比你做的更多的東西,所以通常情況下,我們會做的比我們提供的更多。

  • And then demand generation activities kind of move in kind of like -- to get together with production like it doesn't make sense to put a lot of effort into demand generation if production can't meet the demand.

    然後需求生成活動有點像 - 與生產相結合,如果生產不能滿足需求,那麼在需求生成上投入大量精力是沒有意義的。

  • And likewise -- so what tends to happen is that we'll solve the production issues, then say, okay, we need to increase demand -- address demand then we may increase production, then increase demand.

    同樣 - 所以往往會發生的是我們將解決生產問題,然後說,好吧,我們需要增加需求 - 解決需求然後我們可能會增加產量,然後增加需求。

  • And like I truly get caught up in these details a lot, but if you look at the actual results, like I said, look at cumulative deliveries over time for Tesla, cleanest exponential we've ever seen, extrapolate that curve.

    就像我真的很關注這些細節一樣,但是如果你看看實際結果,就像我說的那樣,看看特斯拉隨時間推移的累積交付量,我們見過的最乾淨的指數,推斷出這條曲線。

  • So there's a tremendous amount to be excited about at Tesla, and we'll have more share in the coming weeks and months.

    因此,特斯拉有很多令人興奮的事情,我們將在未來幾周和幾個月內擁有更多的份額。

  • Zach, is there anything you'd like to say about our results?

    Zach,你對我們的結果有什麼想說的嗎?

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes, sure.

    是的,當然。

  • And thanks, Elon.

    謝謝,埃隆。

  • A few things I want to highlight before moving into the Q&A.

    在進入問答環節之前,我想強調一些事情。

  • Overall, Q2 was a strong quarter for Tesla.

    總體而言,第二季度對特斯拉來說是一個強勁的季度。

  • I'm extremely proud of the team for the progress we've made.

    我為團隊取得的進步感到非常自豪。

  • We've achieved record vehicle production and delivery, record storage production and deployment, record services and other revenue with a corresponding reduced loss.

    我們實現了創紀錄的車輛生產和交付、創紀錄的存儲生產和部署、創紀錄的服務和其他收入,相應地減少了虧損。

  • As we've mentioned a few times, we stabilized international logistics and delivery operations at higher volumes.

    正如我們多次提到的,我們以更高的數量穩定了國際物流和交付業務。

  • And we saw gross margin improvement in nearly every aspect of the business, adjusting for the impact of regulatory credit revenue.

    我們看到業務幾乎所有方面的毛利率都有所改善,並根據監管信貸收入的影響進行了調整。

  • As a result of these accomplishments, we once again achieved strong free cash flows, which is only partially attributed to working capital benefits.

    由於這些成就,我們再次實現了強勁的自由現金流,這僅部分歸功於營運資金收益。

  • We also successfully raised roughly $2.4 billion in net proceeds in May.

    我們還在 5 月份成功籌集了大約 24 億美元的淨收益。

  • Thus, we exited the quarter with $5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, the highest in our history.

    因此,我們在本季度結束時擁有 50 億美元的現金和現金等價物,這是我們歷史上的最高水平。

  • Our net loss reduced significantly relative to Q1, aided by higher volumes in progress on cost efficiencies.

    與第一季度相比,我們的淨虧損顯著減少,這得益於成本效率的提高。

  • A few things to note.

    有幾點需要注意。

  • There's $117 million within operating expenses for restructuring.

    重組的運營費用為 1.17 億美元。

  • We had a sequential reduction of $104 million related to regulatory credit, which is inherently lumpy.

    我們與監管信貸相關的連續減少了 1.04 億美元,這本質上是不穩定的。

  • And in our other income line, we saw a $66 million reduction.

    在我們的其他收入線中,我們看到減少了 6600 萬美元。

  • This is nearly entirely due to foreign exchange, which we don't hedge.

    這幾乎完全是由於我們不對沖的外匯。

  • GAAP automotive gross margin only reduced slightly despite the reduction in credit revenue and expected reductions in our vehicle average selling prices.

    儘管信貸收入減少並且我們的汽車平均售價預計會下降,但美國通用會計準則汽車毛利率僅略有下降。

  • Adjusting for the impact of credits, automotive gross margin improved materially.

    調整信貸影響後,汽車毛利率大幅改善。

  • For Model S and Model X, ASPs are impacted by pricing actions applied to inventory of vehicles built prior to the launch of our powertrain and suspension upgrades in April, the majority of which were sold and delivered in Q2.

    對於 Model S 和 Model X,ASP 受到適用於 4 月份推出動力總成和懸架升級之前製造的車輛庫存的定價行為的影響,其中大部分在第二季度銷售和交付。

  • For Model 3, global ASPs stabilized during the quarter at roughly $50,000, a sequential reduction, yet gross profit per Model 3 improved, representing the continued success of our cost management efforts.

    對於 Model 3,本季度全球平均售價穩定在約 50,000 美元,環比下降,但每輛 Model 3 的毛利潤有所提高,這表明我們的成本管理工作繼續取得成功。

  • Note that we continue to defer a significant portion of revenue associated with full self-driving, which will be recognized in future periods upon the release of additional features.

    請注意,我們繼續推遲與全自動駕駛相關的很大一部分收入,這將在未來期間發布附加功能時予以確認。

  • Operating expenses, net of restructuring, continues to improve as well despite the increases in volume, reflecting the immense focus on improving our operating efficiency.

    儘管數量增加,但扣除重組後的運營費用也繼續改善,這反映了我們對提高運營效率的高度重視。

  • And while operating expenses and capital expenses may appear to be unnaturally low this quarter, that's not the case.

    儘管本季度的運營支出和資本支出可能看起來異常低,但事實並非如此。

  • Rather, these reflect continued progress on cost efficiency and ability to scale our core technologies and processes.

    相反,這些反映了成本效率和擴展我們核心技術和流程的能力的持續進步。

  • If we take a step back here, I think it's important to remember that Tesla is on a long-term journey, and it's difficult to see the full picture looking quarter-to-quarter.

    如果我們退後一步,我認為重要的是要記住特斯拉正處於一個長期的旅程中,很難看到季度與季度的全貌。

  • We committed that Model 3 will be a transformative product, both for the industry and our business.

    我們承諾 Model 3 將成為行業和我們業務的變革性產品。

  • 3 years ago, we unveiled the Model 3. 2 years ago, we brought the product to market.

    3 年前,我們發布了 Model 3。2 年前,我們將產品推向了市場。

  • 1 year ago, we demonstrated our ability to build the Model 3 at high rate.

    1 年前,我們展示了我們高速製造 Model 3 的能力。

  • So far this year, we've demonstrated our ability to manage global deliveries and logistics at a higher rate, but the most important thing is that we've demonstrated our ability to generate significant organic demand as nearly all orders generated in Q2 were nonreservation holders.

    今年到目前為止,我們已經展示了我們以更高的速度管理全球交付和物流的能力,但最重要的是,我們已經展示了我們產生大量有機需求的能力,因為第二季度產生的幾乎所有訂單都是非預訂持有者.

  • And thus far in Q3, our order pacing is ahead of where we were at this point in Q2.

    到目前為止,在第三季度,我們的訂單節奏領先於我們在第二季度的這一點。

  • And as we noted in our Q2 production and delivery release, our order backlog increased over the course of Q2.

    正如我們在第二季度生產和交付版本中指出的那樣,我們的訂單積壓在第二季度有所增加。

  • Ultimately, the Model 3 is accomplishing what our business needs it to do.

    最終,Model 3 正在完成我們的業務需要它做的事情。

  • It expanded our sales and customer base, enabling us to generate cash we need to reinvest.

    它擴大了我們的銷售和客戶群,使我們能夠產生再投資所需的現金。

  • In the process, we've appropriately managed our operating expenses and have reduced the cost of running the business.

    在此過程中,我們適當地管理了我們的運營費用並降低了運營業務的成本。

  • This is critically important because I feel as though we've broken through a baseline fixed cost barrier enabled by the success of the Model 3 business.

    這一點非常重要,因為我覺得我們已經突破了由 Model 3 業務的成功促成的基線固定成本障礙。

  • With continued focus on execution and cost management, the next 12 to 18 months should be the most exciting yet.

    隨著對執行和成本管理的持續關注,接下來的 12 到 18 個月應該是最令人興奮的。

  • During this time, we believe that Gigafactory Shanghai will be producing at scale.

    在此期間,我們相信上海超級工廠將實現規模化生產。

  • Model Y will be in production, addressing the most popular vehicle segment.

    Model Y 將投入生產,以應對最受歡迎的汽車細分市場。

  • Our European Gigafactory will be well underway.

    我們的歐洲超級工廠將順利進行。

  • Our autonomous driving feature suite will continue to develop.

    我們的自動駕駛功能套件將繼續發展。

  • Energy products business will grow and maybe a few other things along the way.

    能源產品業務將會增長,也許還會有其他一些事情發生。

  • And while there's inherent risk in any large and ambitious set of projects, our intent is to grow and invest as fast as we can afford to.

    儘管任何大型且雄心勃勃的項目都存在固有風險,但我們的意圖是在我們能夠承受的範圍內以最快的速度增長和投資。

  • With the cash we have on hand and the stabilization of Model 3 across the key areas as I've noted, we believe we're in great shape for this next phase of growth.

    正如我所指出的,憑藉我們手頭的現金以及 Model 3 在關鍵領域的穩定,我們相信我們在下一階段的增長中處於良好狀態。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Now let's start taking some first questions -- sorry about that.

    現在讓我們開始回答一些第一個問題——對此感到抱歉。

  • Sorry.

    對不起。

  • Go ahead.

    前進。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So an important update is that J.B. Straubel, our Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer, will be transitioning to a senior adviser from the CTO role.

    因此,一個重要的更新是,我們的聯合創始人兼首席技術官 J.B. Straubel 將從 CTO 角色轉變為高級顧問。

  • And Drew Baglino will be taking over most of J.B.'s responsibilities.

    Drew Baglino 將接管 J.B. 的大部分職責。

  • I'd like to thank J.B. for his fundamental role in creating and building Tesla.

    我要感謝 J.B. 在創建和打造特斯拉方面發揮的重要作用。

  • Thank you, J.B.

    謝謝你,J.B.

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • Thanks, Elon.

    謝謝,埃隆。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • If we hadn't had lunch in 2003, Tesla wouldn't exist, basically.

    如果我們在 2003 年沒有吃過午飯,特斯拉基本上就不會存在。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • It's been -- yes, it's been quite an adventurous 16 years.

    這是——是的,這是一個相當冒險的 16 年。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Lunch with you and Harold Rosen (inaudible).

    與您和 Harold Rosen(聽不清)共進午餐。

  • That's the reason Tesla exists.

    這就是特斯拉存在的原因。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • I remember it well.

    我記得很清楚。

  • And maybe just to add a bit more to that.

    也許只是為了增加一點。

  • I'm not disappearing, and I just want to make sure that people understand that this is not some lack of confidence in the company or the team or anything like that.

    我並沒有消失,我只是想確保人們明白這不是對公司或團隊缺乏信心或類似的事情。

  • I love the team and I love the company and I always will.

    我愛團隊,我愛公司,我永遠都會。

  • So Drew and I have worked closely together for many, many years, and I have total confidence in Drew.

    所以德魯和我密切合作了很多很多年,我對德魯充滿信心。

  • And I'm not going anywhere if there's anything I need to do to be helpful to Drew or the whole team or any of the ongoing projects.

    如果我需要做任何事情來幫助 Drew 或整個團隊或任何正在進行的項目,我不會去任何地方。

  • So yes, I mean I'm actually really happy with how we've kind of phased and transitioned some of these different projects and people in, and I feel like this is a super-good process overall.

    所以是的,我的意思是我真的很高興我們如何分階段和過渡這些不同的項目和人員,我覺得這是一個整體上非常好的過程。

  • Is there anything you want to say?

    你有什麼想說的嗎?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • I would say obviously big shoes to fill, J.B. But we have been working closely.

    J.B. 我會說顯然需要大補,但我們一直在密切合作。

  • In fact, we've been talking about this project back in 2003 all along and...

    事實上,我們早在 2003 年就一直在談論這個項目,而且……

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • You guys talked back in 2003 as well?

    你們在 2003 年也談過嗎?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Wow.

    哇。

  • 2003 was a good year.

    2003年是個好年頭。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • I was graduating, and I didn't know what to do.

    我快畢業了,不知道該做什麼。

  • I was like, oh, let's go do this project.

    我當時想,哦,讓我們去做這個項目吧。

  • But no, I feel exactly as you feel that we are well set up, that we know how to get help where we need to from you, and that we're very excited about the growth ahead of us, myself and the whole team.

    但是,不,我和你的感覺完全一樣,我們已經做好了準備,我們知道如何在需要的地方從你那裡獲得幫助,而且我們對未來的發展感到非常興奮,我自己和整個團隊。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • And I'm excited to stay involved in some of our core technologies and all that and help where I can, just in less of an operational with obviously less -- not an executive-type role.

    我很高興能繼續參與我們的一些核心技術以及所有這些工作,並儘我所能提供幫助,只是在一個明顯更少的運營中——而不是一個執行類型的角色。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Sounds good.

    聽起來不錯。

  • Well, J.B., thanks again for your instrumental role in creating this company and Drew as well.

    好吧,J.B.,再次感謝您在創建這家公司和 Drew 方面發揮的重要作用。

  • So that's cool.

    所以這很酷。

  • You guys talking about it in 2003.

    你們在 2003 年談論它。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Lovely.

    迷人的。

  • The right year.

    正確的年份。

  • Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

    Jeffrey B. Straubel - CTO & Senior Advisor

  • Good year.

    豐年。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Good year.

    豐年。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • It was -- the technology was ready.

    它是——技術已經準備好了。

  • It was the time.

    是時候了。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • It was like the same line.

    這就像同一條線。

  • It's like finally ready, just needed to be put in a car.

    就像終於準備好了,只需要放在車裡。

  • AC Propulsion.

    交流推進。

  • Al Cocconi, Tom Gage.

    艾爾·科科尼,湯姆·蓋奇。

  • TZero.

    零。

  • Got to give those guys a little credit.

    必須給那些傢伙一點信任。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes, they did some fine work.

    是的,他們做了一些很好的工作。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • I think we'll go ahead with some questions now.

    我想我們現在將繼續提出一些問題。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • So we have some first questions from our retail shareholders from say.com.

    所以我們有一些來自 say.com 的散戶股東的第一個問題。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • And the first question is it has been stated that Tesla is supply constrained not demand constrained.

    第一個問題是有人說特斯拉是供應受限而不是需求受限。

  • Can you help us shed some light on why Tesla is lowering car cost if supply is constrained?

    你能幫我們解釋一下為什麼特斯拉會在供應受限的情況下降低汽車成本嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • There's a number of things to consider here.

    這裡有很多事情需要考慮。

  • The -- there's really 2 key dimensions for demand.

    - 需求確實有兩個關鍵維度。

  • There's value for money, and then there's affordability.

    物有所值,然後是負擔能力。

  • Obviously, if somebody simply does not have enough money to buy the car, it doesn't matter how much the -- how good the value for money is.

    顯然,如果有人根本沒有足夠的錢來買車,那麼物有所值就沒有關係了。

  • You can have infinite value for money, but if someone does not have the funds to buy the car, they simply can't get it.

    你可以擁有無限的物有所值,但如果有人沒有錢買車,他們根本就買不到。

  • So it's very important to parse those 2, and I think there's like -- there's tremendous amount of desire to buy our cars, but people -- obviously, if they don't have enough money to buy them, they cannot.

    所以解析這兩個非常重要,我認為就像 - 有巨大的購買我們的汽車的願望,但人們 - 顯然,如果他們沒有足夠的錢來購買它們,他們就不能。

  • So we have to make the cars more affordable.

    所以我們必須讓汽車更便宜。

  • And effectively back in the U.S., our cars got almost $2,000 more expensive with the expiry of the tax credit on July 1 -- or the partial expiry.

    實際上回到美國,隨著稅收抵免於 7 月 1 日到期或部分到期,我們的汽車價格上漲了近 2,000 美元。

  • And we only dropped the price of the Standard Range Plus Model 3 by $1,000 -- or actually -- yes, by $1,000.

    我們只將 Standard Range Plus Model 3 的價格降低了 1,000 美元——或者實際上——是的,降低了 1,000 美元。

  • So the base Model 3 actually got $1,000 more expensive, which seemed like a reasonable compromise.

    因此,基本款 Model 3 實際上貴了 1000 美元,這似乎是一個合理的折衷方案。

  • So that's essentially what I mean.

    所以這基本上就是我的意思。

  • We feel like this is sometimes just have these sort of pretty absurd notions like if demand is high, you can't just charge any price.

    我們覺得這有時只是有一些非常荒謬的概念,比如如果需求很高,你就不能隨便收取任何價格。

  • Like you cannot charge any price.

    就像你不能收取任何價格一樣。

  • I think making our cars more affordable is also fundamentally part of the Tesla mission.

    我認為讓我們的汽車更實惠也是特斯拉使命的基本組成部分。

  • So yes.

    所以是的。

  • Is there anything you want to add?

    你有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes, I'll just add to that.

    是的,我只是補充一下。

  • I agree completely.

    我完全同意。

  • What I'll add is that, generally speaking, within the Model 3 lineup, the pricing adjustments for our higher-churn cars was slightly more than that for the Standard Plus.

    我要補充的是,一般來說,在 Model 3 陣容中,我們高流失率汽車的定價調整略高於標準 Plus。

  • So we'll see how the data plays out on this as we take in more orders, but the expectation is that our mix will move towards higher trim to some extent offsetting some of the ASP adjustments from the pricing changes.

    因此,隨著我們接受更多訂單,我們將看到數據如何發揮作用,但我們的預期是我們的組合將朝著更高的微調方向發展,在一定程度上抵消了定價變化帶來的一些 ASP 調整。

  • And one other thing I'll add is that we are focusing on a couple of markets as well to target and to identify some of our sales, and so some of our pricing adjustments reflect those elements of that strategy.

    我要補充的另一件事是,我們也專注於幾個市場,以定位和確定我們的一些銷售,因此我們的一些定價調整反映了該戰略的這些要素。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Essentially, we expect average selling prices to be the same within a few percentage points.

    從本質上講,我們預計平均售價將在幾個百分點內保持不變。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • That's correct.

    這是正確的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Generally on ASP, as we noted in the letter, it was roughly, even over the course of the quarter, stabilized around $50,000.

    正如我們在信中所指出的,一般來說,平均售價大致穩定在 50,000 美元左右,甚至在本季度期間也是如此。

  • And we have good visibility into where our ASPs are going based on order data.

    我們可以根據訂單數據很好地了解我們的 ASP 的去向。

  • And so that gives us 1 to 2 months of lead as to where our actual recognized ASPs will be.

    因此,我們有 1 到 2 個月的時間來確定我們實際認可的 ASP 將在哪裡。

  • And so I would expect some adjustment to our Model 3 ASPs as a result of this pricing change, but the trim mix will offset some of that.

    因此,我預計由於這種定價變化,我們的 Model 3 平均售價會有所調整,但內飾組合將抵消其中的一部分。

  • And we continue to make great progress on cost efficiencies.

    我們繼續在成本效率方面取得巨大進步。

  • And so overall in net, our expectation is that the Model 3 gross margin will continue to grow.

    因此,總體而言,我們預計 Model 3 的毛利率將繼續增長。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • On the gross margin point, like the full self-driving is just an extremely important part of the margin calculation, and the features for full self-driving are -- only a portion of them have rolled out.

    在毛利率方面,像全自動駕駛只是利潤率計算中極其重要的一部分,而全自動駕駛的功能是——只有一部分已經推出。

  • So the revenue recognition on the full self-driving option is limited at first until those features roll out.

    因此,在這些功能推出之前,完全自動駕駛選項的收入確認一開始是有限的。

  • And also, the demand for the full self-driving package is limited because the features are mostly prospective instead of current.

    此外,對完整自動駕駛套件的需求有限,因為這些功能大多是前瞻性的,而不是當前的。

  • But as those features roll out, I would expect the take rate for full self-driving to increase significantly as well as the recognition -- revenue recognition of full self-driving to obviously match the rollout of the product.

    但隨著這些功能的推出,我預計全自動駕駛的採用率將顯著提高,並且全自動駕駛的收入確認明顯與產品的推出相匹配。

  • So the gross margin over time will be really quite compelling when factoring in the full self-driving option, which is, yes, accounted to $7,000 in mid-August.

    因此,考慮到全自動駕駛選項,隨著時間的推移,毛利率將非常引人注目,是的,在 8 月中旬達到 7,000 美元。

  • And that number will increase over time.

    而且這個數字會隨著時間的推移而增加。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • The second question is many of us who follow Tesla closely are incredibly excited about Battery and Powertrain Investor Day and its technology implications.

    第二個問題是,我們中的許多密切關注特斯拉的人都對電池和動力總成投資者日及其技術影響感到非常興奮。

  • Can you provide us any more detail on when this will be and what will be covered?

    您能否向我們提供有關何時以及將涵蓋哪些內容的更多詳細信息?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think for our Battery Day, we're going to do a comprehensive review of cell chemistry, module and pack architecture and a manufacturing plan that has a clear road map to a terawatt hour per year.

    是的,我認為在我們的電池日,我們將對電池化學、模塊和電池組架構以及製造計劃進行全面審查,該計劃具有每年達到太瓦時的明確路線圖。

  • The timing for this probably is about 6 months, like maybe February or March next year, show and tell.

    這個時間可能是大約 6 個月,比如明年 2 月或 3 月,展示和講述。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • The next question is you stated on the Q4 2018 earnings call that customer service was a personal priority for 2019.

    下一個問題是您在 2018 年第四季度財報電話會議上表示,客戶服務是 2019 年的個人優先事項。

  • Can you update us on what has been done to date to ensure that all owners are receiving an industry-leading customer experience?

    您能否向我們介紹迄今為止為確保所有業主都能獲得行業領先的客戶體驗所做的工作?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • I meet with the service team multiple times a week and get daily updates on the reliability of the vehicle.

    我每週與服務團隊會面多次,每天都會獲得有關車輛可靠性的最新信息。

  • We -- the best service, of course, is no service.

    我們——最好的服務當然是沒有服務。

  • Like that's the vehicle just -- reliability and quality being so good that service is rarely required.

    就像那輛車一樣——可靠性和質量如此之好,以至於很少需要服務。

  • That's what the main goal is like, eliminate the need for service.

    這就是主要目標的樣子,消除對服務的需求。

  • Then in terms of increasing service resources, we're opening service centers as fast as we can and have already opened 25 new service locations this quarter, and that will increase -- the rate of service center opening will increase dramatically in through the course of this year as well as more Mobile Service.

    然後在增加服務資源方面,我們正在盡可能快地開設服務中心,本季度已經開設了25個新的服務點,而且還會增加——服務中心的開設率將在整個過程中急劇增加。今年還有更多的移動服務。

  • Mobile Service is really great because it's like we just come to you and fix the car wherever you are.

    移動服務真的很棒,因為它就像我們只是來找你,無論你在哪裡修車。

  • And it's hard to beat that for convenience.

    為了方便起見,很難打敗它。

  • For parts delivery, we've made massive improvement to logistics for getting parts to service centers.

    對於零件交付,我們對將零件運送到服務中心的物流進行了重大改進。

  • Hey, Jerome, do you want to -- Jerome is helping to manage the service -- global service and...

    嘿,杰羅姆,你想不想 - 杰羅姆正在幫助管理服務 - 全球服務和...

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • As you pointed out, the best service is no service.

    正如您所指出的,最好的服務是沒有服務。

  • So we're trying to continue improving the quality of the cars.

    因此,我們正在努力繼續提高汽車的質量。

  • And we track this daily, and fewer and fewer service visits are required from the most recent cars that we're building.

    我們每天都會跟踪這一點,我們正在製造的最新汽車需要的服務訪問越來越少。

  • So we're on a good trend there.

    所以我們的趨勢很好。

  • We also need a lot fewer work to finish the cars in the factory.

    我們還需要更少的工作來完成工廠的汽車。

  • Besides that, we stock way many more parts in all the service centers, and we ship everything same day pretty much so that people don't have to wait for cars -- for parts.

    除此之外,我們在所有服務中心儲存了更多的零件,我們幾乎在同一天發貨,這樣人們就不必等待汽車——等待零件。

  • And we accelerate service, and we increase capacity.

    我們加快服務速度,增加容量。

  • There's a lot of improvements that we've already implemented and many more on the way.

    我們已經實施了很多改進,還有更多改進正在進行中。

  • So I'm relatively optimistic, and I'm happy to help with the service team.

    所以我比較樂觀,很樂意為服務團隊提供幫助。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • They had the regional service heads in the U.S. at the factory last week, and it was incredibly helpful, just a closed loop on -- with service and production and with the software team.

    上週,他們在美國的工廠安排了區域服務負責人,這非常有幫助,只是一個閉環——服務和生產以及軟件團隊。

  • And for example, like a lot of service visits are just questions about how to use the car and...

    例如,就像很多服務訪問只是關於如何使用汽車的問題......

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • And it's the #1 visit is how to use Autopilot.

    它的#1 訪問是如何使用自動駕駛儀。

  • So yes, a bit of education there helps.

    所以,是的,那裡的一些教育會有所幫助。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Like literally how do I turn it on.

    就像字面意思一樣,我該如何打開它。

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Like it's -- yes.

    就像它——是的。

  • It's like how do I turn it on.

    這就像我如何打開它。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So just providing better feedback on user interface and virtually how do you turn it on.

    因此,只需提供有關用戶界面的更好反饋以及您如何打開它。

  • And yes, a whole bunch of things that are quite elementary to reduce service load.

    是的,一大堆非常基本的東西可以減少服務負載。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • The next question is, in April, Gigafactory 1 had efficiency of about 23 out of the 35 gigawatt hours theoretical capacity.

    下一個問題是,4 月份,Gigafactory 1 的效率約為 35 吉瓦時理論容量中的 23 倍。

  • Has this been improved yet?

    這有改善嗎?

  • And is Tesla still cell constrained?

    特斯拉仍然受到電池限制嗎?

  • Are there any near-term plans to increase the plant theoretical capacity?

    是否有任何增加工廠理論產能的近期計劃?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Drew?

    德魯?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • We have seen improvements in the 23 gigawatt hour number.

    我們已經看到 23 吉瓦時數字的改進。

  • We're in the high 20s now with the trajectory continuing upward.

    我們現在處於 20 多歲的高位,而且軌跡繼續向上。

  • We're not...

    不是...

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • So about 28-ish?

    那麼28歲左右?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes, 28-ish.

    是的,28 歲左右。

  • I would say we're not still constrained for any of our activities at the moment.

    我想說,目前我們的任何活動都不受限制。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Cell volume is approximately matching the production ramp rate.

    細胞體積與生產斜坡率大致匹配。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • And the last question is what is the new Lathrop facility.

    最後一個問題是什麼是新的 Lathrop 設施。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Nothing major.

    沒什麼大不了的。

  • It's a parts distribution warehouse.

    這是一個零件配送倉庫。

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We're optimizing the real estate, trying to consolidate everything under one roof, reduce the cost.

    我們正在優化房地產,試圖將所有東西整合到一個屋簷下,降低成本。

  • There's really nothing special there.

    那裡真的沒有什麼特別的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Latif, we can start the Q&A question queue on the call.

    Latif,我們可以在通話中啟動問答問題隊列。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our first question comes from the line of Dan Galves of Wolfe Research.

    我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

  • Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Congrats on the $5 billion cash number.

    恭喜獲得 50 億美元的現金。

  • I'm halfway expecting some headlines tomorrow of Tesla's got too much cash on the balance sheet.

    我一半期待明天特斯拉的資產負債表上有太多現金的頭條新聞。

  • I was wondering if you could update us on Gigafactory China.

    我想知道您能否向我們介紹 Gigafactory China 的最新情況。

  • Don't have a great sense of what delivery volumes in China are for Model 3 at the moment.

    目前對 Model 3 在中國的交付量不太了解。

  • Some sources are around maybe 3,000 or 4,000 per month.

    有些來源每月大約 3,000 或 4,000 個。

  • What have you seen in terms of order flow and demand since you announced pricing at a local product that gives you confidence that you can get to 3,000 per week type of demand in that market?

    自從您宣布本地產品定價以來,您在訂單流和需求方面看到了什麼,這讓您有信心在該市場上每周可以滿足 3,000 種需求?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • I -- yes.

    我——是的。

  • I mean, we don't talk too much about like detailed price plans, but I mean if you're asking like what do I think the long-term demand for Model 3 is in Greater China region, I think it's about -- I mean from Shanghai Gigafactory, I think it's actually -- long-term demand is about 5,000 a week.

    我的意思是,我們不會過多談論詳細的價格計劃,但我的意思是,如果你問我認為大中華地區對 Model 3 的長期需求是什麼,我認為這是關於——我上海超級工廠的意思,我認為實際上是-- 長期需求大約是每週5,000 個。

  • Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

    Daniel V. Galves - Director of Equity Research & Senior Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Sounds good.

    聽起來不錯。

  • And have you considered potentially sourcing cars to Europe from that China plant at all?

    您是否考慮過從中國工廠向歐洲採購汽車?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • No.

    不。

  • Our plan is to -- well, to source cars to sort of greater Europe area from Fremont, California, and until we have European Gigafactory operational.

    我們的計劃是——嗯,從加利福尼亞州弗里蒙特採購汽車到大歐洲地區,直到我們擁有歐洲超級工廠。

  • And that's -- but that's probably a couple years before -- it's probably 2021 before we have an operational Gigafactory in Europe.

    那是 - 但這可能是幾年前 - 可能要到 2021 年,我們才會在歐洲擁有一個可運營的 Gigafactory。

  • And so until that time, we will source from California.

    所以在那之前,我們將從加利福尼亞採購。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • It's like -- this is again speculation.

    這就像 - 這又是猜測。

  • It's my opinion, but so what I think, say, long-term demand is for Model 3, it's probably 15,000 units a week globally, something like that.

    這是我的意見,但我認為,長期需求是對 Model 3 的需求,全球每周可能有 15,000 輛,類似這樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • I was wondering if you can comment about whether you felt that Q2 benefited from consumers in the U.S. sort of rushing out to buy Model 3s in advance of the declining federal tax credit, a phenomenon that you sort of saw in Q4.

    我想知道您是否可以評論一下您是否認為第二季度受益於美國消費者在聯邦稅收抵免下降之前急於購買 Model 3,您在第四季度看到了這種現象。

  • And part of the reason I ask is, at least by my analysis, it looks like maybe 70% of the Model 3s sold in the quarter were in the U.S., which is sort of higher than your normalized percentage of U.S. sales.

    我問的部分原因是,至少根據我的分析,看起來本季度銷售的 Model 3 中可能有 70% 是在美國,這比你在美國銷售的標準化百分比要高一些。

  • And so do you feel that, that phenomenon may have occurred in Q2?

    那麼你覺得這種現象可能發生在第二季度嗎?

  • And are you still confident that Q3 deliveries can improve sequentially?

    您是否仍然相信第三季度的交付量可以連續改善?

  • And beyond the data point that you provided on the call that the orders quarter data are better than last quarter.

    除了您在電話會議上提供的數據點之外,訂單季度數據優於上一季度。

  • Is there anything else you can point to that provides that confidence?

    還有什麼你可以指出的可以提供這種信心的嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think we'll -- demand in Q3 will exceed Q2.

    我認為我們將 - 第三季度的需求將超過第二季度。

  • It has thus far, and I think we'll see some acceleration of that.

    到目前為止,我認為我們會看到一些加速。

  • And then I think Q4 will be, I think, very strong.

    然後我認為第四季度會非常強勁。

  • So we expect like quarter-over-quarter improvements.

    因此,我們預計會出現季度環比的改善。

  • I think Q1 next year will be tough.

    我認為明年第一季度會很艱難。

  • I think Q3 and 4 will be good.

    我認為第三季度和第四季度會很好。

  • Q1 will be tough.

    Q1 會很艱難。

  • Q2 will be not as bad but still tough.

    第二季度不會那麼糟糕,但仍然很艱難。

  • And then I would say like Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.

    然後我會說明年的第三季度和第四季度將是不可思議的。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Just to add on the tax credit step-down, so the step-down from Q2 to Q3 was significantly lower than the step-down from Q4 to Q1.

    只是加上稅收抵免降級,所以從 Q2 到 Q3 的降級明顯低於從 Q4 到 Q1 的降級。

  • It's also important to keep in mind that there's seasonality in the auto business in Q1, which also is part of the impact.

    同樣重要的是要記住,第一季度汽車業務存在季節性,這也是影響的一部分。

  • But generally speaking, our order rates so far this quarter is higher than where we were at this point in Q2, and we haven't seen a significant impact on U.S.-based orders as a result of the step-down.

    但總的來說,我們本季度到目前為止的訂單率高於我們在第二季度的這一點,並且我們沒有看到降級對美國訂單產生重大影響。

  • A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

    A.M. Sacconaghi - Senior Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • If I could just follow up.

    如果我能跟進。

  • Elon, I'm wondering if you can comment on whether you believe Model 3 is having any cannibalization impact on S and X sales or why you think that -- or why else there might be sort of a structural step-down in the demand and delivery levels relative to what we've seen over the last 5 or 6 years?

    Elon,我想知道你是否可以評論一下你是否認為 Model 3 對 S 和 X 的銷售有任何蠶食影響,或者你為什麼這麼認為——或者為什麼需求可能會出現結構性下降和相對於我們在過去 5 年或 6 年看到的交付水平?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Actually, we were just talking about this earlier today.

    實際上,我們今天早些時候只是在談論這個。

  • We're not quite sure ourselves.

    我們自己也不太確定。

  • I think there's some cannibalization.

    我認為有一些自相殘殺。

  • In fact, there may be false expectation in the market that there's like some big overhaul coming for S and X, which then cause people to hesitate to buy if they think there's some like radical redesign coming, which is why I've emphasized publicly that this is not the case.

    事實上,市場上可能存在錯誤的預期,即 S 和 X 即將進行大修,如果人們認為會有一些類似徹底的重新設計即將到來,這會導致人們猶豫購買,這就是我公開強調的原因不是這種情況。

  • The Model S and X today are radically better than the ones that -- when we first started production, especially S, like I say, like 2013 or 2012 Model S compared to today's Model S, night and day.

    今天的 Model S 和 X 比我們剛開始生產時的那些要好得多,尤其是 S,就像我說的,就像 2013 年或 2012 年的 Model S 與今天的 Model S 相比,無論白天還是黑夜。

  • In fact, I still run into people I knew who have like 2013 Model S, and they think it hasn't changed.

    事實上,我仍然遇到我認識的人喜歡 2013 Model S,他們認為它沒有改變。

  • And I'm like it is dramatically better in every way.

    而且我覺得它在各個方面都好得多。

  • But we don't do model years.

    但我們不做模特年。

  • We just roll in improvements as they come.

    我們只是在改進時進行改進。

  • So I think there is maybe a communications issue where people don't realize just how much better the S and X are today than when we first started.

    所以我認為可能存在一個溝通問題,人們沒有意識到今天的 S 和 X 比我們剛開始時要好得多。

  • And we actually want to address that communications issue and just get a better understanding, and they're -- from the front lines like what -- demand should be higher for S and X than it is, and we'll get to the bottom of it and fix it.

    我們實際上想解決這個溝通問題,只是為了更好地理解,他們 - 從前線就像什麼 - 對 S 和 X 的需求應該比現在更高,我們會追根究底並修復它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

  • Xin Yu - Research Associate

    Xin Yu - Research Associate

  • It's Edison on for Emmanuel.

    這是愛迪生為伊曼紐爾。

  • Just first question on the guidance.

    只是關於指導的第一個問題。

  • I know previously there was a target out there of 25% kind of on the S, X and Model 3. Just wondering, is the updated one, is that suggesting that that's no longer in play for the year?

    我知道之前在 S、X 和 Model 3 上有 25% 的目標。只是想知道,是更新的,這是否表明今年不再起作用?

  • Or kind of what are the implications with today's update?

    或者今天的更新意味著什麼?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Well, if you factor in the full self-driving option, I think it is in play for the year.

    好吧,如果你考慮到完全自動駕駛的選項,我認為它會在今年發揮作用。

  • We just need to get the features done, make sure they're great, roll them out and recognize revenue and increase the take rate on full self-driving.

    我們只需要完成功能,確保它們很棒,推出它們並確認收入並提高全自動駕駛的採用率。

  • But also for the existing fleet, there's a very significant opportunity to upgrade the existing fleet to full self-driving since most of the fleet has not purchased this option yet.

    但對於現有車隊而言,將現有車隊升級為全自動駕駛是一個非常重要的機會,因為大多數車隊尚未購買此選項。

  • So there's a significant margin potential for the existing fleet to upgrade to full self-driving, which most of the fleet can.

    因此,現有車隊升級到全自動駕駛有很大的利潤潛力,而大多數車隊都可以做到。

  • So yes, absolutely, I think like, long term, we are talking 25%, 30%.

    所以是的,絕對,我認為,從長遠來看,我們談論的是 25%、30%。

  • Not -- long term meaning like a year.

    不是——像一年這樣的長期含義。

  • Long term like in Tesla vernacular.

    長期就像特斯拉白話一樣。

  • That 30% gross margin is, I think, quite likely.

    我認為,30% 的毛利率很有可能。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We continue to take significant costs out of the Model 3 in particular as well, and Jerome can comment further on this.

    我們繼續特別從 Model 3 中降低大量成本,Jerome 可以對此發表進一步評論。

  • But every week -- nearly every week, we hit record lows on labor content to build the vehicle.

    但每週——幾乎每週,我們製造汽車的勞動力含量都創下歷史新低。

  • And we saw an ASP adjustment reduction in Model 3 from Q1 to Q2, yet the gross profit on the vehicle expanded, attributed to the cost reduction efforts that are underway.

    從第一季度到第二季度,我們看到 Model 3 的 ASP 調整減少,但由於正在進行的成本削減工作,該車的毛利潤有所增加。

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Our labor costs are more than 50% reduction in 1 year.

    我們的人工成本在 1 年內降低了 50% 以上。

  • Yes, it's progressing every quarter.

    是的,它每個季度都在進步。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's worth like -- so what the labor hours were quarter-over-quarter?

    是的,值得一提——那麼季度環比的工時是多少?

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Reduced in half, yes, since Q3 last year.

    是的,自去年第三季度以來減少了一半。

  • But it's also all the (inaudible) the spares.

    但這也是所有(聽不清)備件。

  • The scrap is reduced to pretty much nothing, reduced 90% year-over-year.

    廢料幾乎為零,同比減少 90%。

  • Spares reduced more than half also.

    備件也減少了一半以上。

  • So our goal is to make the cars more affordable, and so we're pushing every day, yes.

    所以我們的目標是讓汽車更實惠,所以我們每天都在推動,是的。

  • And every week, we hit records on most lines, yes, and in terms of output and cost per unit, yes, we're in very good dynamic and a level of fiscal discipline that I have not -- we have not had in the past.

    每週,我們在大多數產品線上都創下了記錄,是的,就產量和單位成本而言,是的,我們處於非常好的動態和一定程度的財政紀律,這是我沒有的——我們在過去的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Agreed, yes.

    同意,是的。

  • So like from a core financial health standpoint, I think -- I'd just like to echo Jerome's words.

    因此,從核心財務健康的角度來看,我想——我只想附和杰羅姆的話。

  • Like I think Tesla's fiscal discipline is dramatically better than times in the past.

    就像我認為特斯拉的財政紀律比過去好得多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha of JMP Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Joseph Osha。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Listen, listening to you talk about mix here and the fact that you're running a single shift at your S and X facilities in Fremont, I'm wondering, is there maybe some potential to reconfigure the floorspace there a bit?

    聽著,聽你談論這裡的混音,以及你在弗里蒙特的 S 和 X 設施運行單班制的事實,我想知道,是否有可能重新配置那裡的地板空間?

  • And is that something that you're thinking about?

    這是你正在考慮的事情嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Well, we are reconfiguring the floorspace in Fremont, and there's like quite a lot of factory space that's currently taken up with the S/X parts warehousing, parts for the S/X line.

    嗯,我們正在重新配置弗里蒙特的廠房空間,目前有相當多的工廠空間被 S/X 零件倉庫佔用,S/X 生產線的零件。

  • And we don't really need that.

    我們真的不需要那個。

  • So that's where we're putting a lot of the Model Y activity.

    所以這就是我們投入大量 Model Y 活動的地方。

  • Jerome, do you want to...

    杰羅姆,你想...

  • Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

    Jerome Guillen - President of Automotive Division

  • Yes, where we're improving the material delivery for S and X just like we have done for Model 3, we've seen some radical improvements.

    是的,就像我們為 Model 3 所做的那樣,我們正在改進 S 和 X 的材料交付,我們已經看到了一些根本性的改進。

  • We reduced production part warehousing costs by, again, 90%, 9-0, since Q3 last year.

    自去年第三季度以來,我們再次以 9-0 的比例將生產零件的倉儲成本降低了 90%。

  • And so we're making a lot of room.

    所以我們要騰出很多空間。

  • We're much more efficient with parts delivery.

    我們的零件交付效率更高。

  • It helps that we're increasing production actually.

    這有助於我們實際增加產量。

  • And so that space that we've cleared out, I'm looking at it right now, in Fremont, we're just going to put Model Y stuff in there.

    所以我們已經清理出的空間,我現在正在看它,在弗里蒙特,我們只是要把 Model Y 的東西放在那裡。

  • So if you visit the factory from, I would say, every 6 months, you'd have a hard time recognizing and finding your way, yes.

    因此,如果您每 6 個月訪問一次工廠,您將很難識別並找到自己的方式,是的。

  • It's constantly changing and evolving, yes.

    它在不斷變化和發展,是的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Just like I said, what's interesting about this factory is -- both Fremont and Giga, is like just the rate of improvement, which is not slowing down, has been incredible.

    就像我說的,這家工廠的有趣之處在於——無論是弗里蒙特還是 Giga,就像沒有放緩的改進速度一樣令人難以置信。

  • It's like -- you're just like you can feel it and see it.

    就像——你就像你能感覺到和看到它一樣。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And just as a follow-on then, could we see you manage to make 8,000 -- 7,500, 8,000 Model 3s in Fremont by the end of the year, you think?

    作為後續行動,我們能否看到您在年底前在弗里蒙特生產 8,000、7,500、8,000 輛 Model 3,您認為嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean I feel confident.

    我的意思是我有信心。

  • It's -- let's just say that the trend is very clearly towards being able to get to 10,000 vehicles a week, of which that would be -- there is -- rough number is like 8,300 to 8,600 Model 3s and the balance in S and X. So sort of 1,600 to 1,800 S/X and like -- in round numbers, 8,500 3s, 1,500 S/X per week but probably a bit more than that.

    這是 - 讓我們只是說,趨勢非常明顯地朝著能夠達到每週 10,000 輛汽車的方向發展,其中 - 有 - 粗略的數字是 8,300 到 8,600 輛 Model 3,其餘為 S 和 X . 所以大概是 1,600 到 1,800 S/X 之類的 - 以整數計算,每週 8,500 個 3s,1,500 個 S/X,但可能比這多一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Dan Levy of Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

  • Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about your reg credits, in particular, the non-ZEV piece.

    我想詢問您的註冊學分,特別是非 ZEV 部分。

  • You're not disclosing the ZEV piece anymore but just a couple questions on this.

    您不再披露 ZEV 作品,而只是就此提出幾個問題。

  • First, how can we think -- is there any quarterly cadence to think about this?

    首先,我們如何思考——是否有任何季度節奏來思考這個問題?

  • And then what's the composition of this?

    然後這是什麼成分?

  • Is this going purely to European OEMs?

    這純粹是針對歐洲原始設備製造商的嗎?

  • There's obviously one automaker that you've agreed with.

    顯然,您已經同意了一家汽車製造商。

  • I don't know if there are any others that you're looking at.

    我不知道你是否還有其他人在看。

  • And lastly, to what extent can you -- or are you willing to sacrifice pricing in Europe to sell higher volumes to generate more reg credits?

    最後,你能在多大程度上——或者你願意犧牲歐洲的定價來銷售更多的銷量來產生更多的註冊信用?

  • And are you having discussions with other automakers on this front?

    您是否在這方面與其他汽車製造商進行了討論?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Zach?

    扎克?

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • On your question about the cadence of regulatory credits.

    關於您關於監管信用的節奏的問題。

  • It is -- generally, as I've commented in the past, we expect regulatory credits to become a more meaningful part of our business.

    通常,正如我過去評論過的那樣,我們預計監管信用將成為我們業務中更有意義的一部分。

  • On a quarter-to-quarter basis, it's very difficult to forecast them.

    按季度計算,很難預測它們。

  • As you saw from Q1 to Q2, that declined.

    正如您從第一季度到第二季度所看到的那樣,這種情況有所下降。

  • And so as you model regulatory credits in Q3, I would not expect a significant increase in regulatory credits, although it's hard to forecast exactly.

    因此,當您在第三季度對監管信用進行建模時,我預計監管信用不會顯著增加,儘管很難準確預測。

  • The regulatory credits composition is a mixture of these particular deals that are onetime.

    監管信用構成是這些特定交易的混合,這些交易是一次性的。

  • There's also some that are production-based over time.

    隨著時間的推移,還有一些是基於生產的。

  • The production-based ones are easier to forecast because it's based on cars that we build, and we get an offset to that way.

    基於生產的更容易預測,因為它是基於我們製造的汽車,我們可以通過這種方式抵消。

  • The deal-specific ones are lumpier, which makes it more difficult.

    特定於交易的交易更加笨拙,這使得它更加困難。

  • And then your final question was on does it make sense to sacrifice pricing to drive regulatory credit in certain markets.

    然後你的最後一個問題是犧牲定價來推動某些市場的監管信貸是否有意義。

  • It might.

    它可能。

  • I'm not sure if we've specifically gone into the details of that.

    我不確定我們是否專門討論了這方面的細節。

  • But generally, we're selling cars in markets at the prices we think are appropriate, and the regulatory credit is something that traditional -- we generally try not to run the business based on regulatory credit revenue.

    但總的來說,我們在市場上以我們認為合適的價格銷售汽車,而監管信貸是傳統的——我們通常盡量不根據監管信貸收入來經營業務。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • The regulatory credit is like -- I mean it's a relatively small part of the equation for Tesla.

    監管信用就像 - 我的意思是它只是特斯拉等式中相對較小的一部分。

  • And the -- I think the ZEV credit situation, I think really needs reform because the market for ZEV credits is negligible.

    而且 - 我認為 ZEV 信用狀況確實需要改革,因為 ZEV 信用市場可以忽略不計。

  • Now some of what's happening here is the other manufacturers are kind of like waiting to see how their EV sales do before buying any credits from Tesla.

    現在這裡發生的一些事情是,其他製造商有點像在從特斯拉購買任何積分之前等著看他們的電動汽車銷售情況如何。

  • And so it kind of depends on how that goes.

    所以這有點取決於它是如何進行的。

  • If they sell more EVs, then there's not really a need to do a deal with Tesla.

    如果他們銷售更多的電動汽車,那麼就沒有必要與特斯拉達成協議。

  • And if they sell fewer, then there is.

    如果他們賣得更少,那就有。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Colin Rusch。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Can you walk us through the plan for battery sourcing in China?

    您能介紹一下在中國採購電池的計劃嗎?

  • How many -- how much of the supply is going to come from internally produced batteries?

    有多少——有多少供應將來自內部生產的電池?

  • How much is coming from externally?

    有多少來自外部?

  • And what's your expectation around cost per watt hours as you start to ramp?

    當您開始爬坡時,您對每瓦時成本的期望是什麼?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • I mean I don't know if we want to talk about the details of battery supply, but we believe we have a good handle on -- we don't expect to be cell-constrained in China for the next year.

    我的意思是我不知道我們是否想談一談電池供應的細節,但我們相信我們掌握得很好——我們預計明年在中國不會受到電池限制。

  • I don't know.

    我不知道。

  • Drew, what do you think?

    德魯,你怎麼看?

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • That's what our plan looks like right now.

    這就是我們現在的計劃。

  • In terms of internal versus external, I think we should wait until we have our discussion early next year.

    在內部與外部方面,我認為我們應該等到明年初進行討論。

  • But yes, we have agreements in place with all the -- we're good for the next year, as you said, Elon.

    但是,是的,我們已經與所有人達成了協議——正如你所說,埃隆,我們明年會很好。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean I think we probably need to like just do like a reset like -- I'm not saying master plan part 3, but it's really like, to some degree, the Battery Day will be kind of like master plan part 3, which is like, okay, how we get from kind of in the tens of gigawatt hours per year to multiple terawatt hours per year.

    我的意思是我認為我們可能需要像重置一樣 - 我不是說總體規劃第 3 部分,但它真的就像,在某種程度上,電池日將有點像總體規劃第 3 部分,其中就像,好的,我們如何從每年幾十吉瓦時變成每年幾太瓦時。

  • That's a pretty giant-scale increase.

    這是一個相當巨大的增長。

  • And so yes, it's an increase of sort of roughly 100.

    所以是的,增加了大約 100 個。

  • Like if we're at 28 gigawatt hours right now -- well, actually, there is more than that when you count the factories in Japan.

    就像我們現在的電量是 28 吉瓦時一樣——嗯,實際上,當你算上日本的工廠時,還有更多。

  • So call it like a little over 30 to 35 or something like that.

    所以稱它為 30 到 35 多一點或類似的東西。

  • And how do we get to like 2 terawatt hours a year?

    我們如何才能達到每年 2 太瓦時?

  • (inaudible) 19 increase.

    (聽不清) 19 增加。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • That's the way you have to think about it because that's what we need to do.

    這就是你必須考慮的方式,因為這是我們需要做的。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, exactly.

    對,就是這樣。

  • In order to really make fundamental shift in the world's energy usage and really transform things to a sustainable energy future, if you're not in the terawatt hour range, it's like it's a nice news story, but it's not fundamentally changing the energy equation.

    為了真正從根本上改變世界能源使用並真正將事物轉變為可持續能源的未來,如果你不在太瓦時範圍內,這就像一個好消息,但它並沒有從根本上改變能源方程式。

  • Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

    Colin William Rusch - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And can I have a follow-up question around Model S and Model X saturation?

    我可以就 Model S 和 Model X 飽和度提出後續問題嗎?

  • Obviously, you guys have some ideas around how big that market is.

    顯然,你們對這個市場有多大有一些想法。

  • How should we be thinking about sustainable volumes and pricing on those volumes?

    我們應該如何考慮可持續的銷量和這些銷量的定價?

  • Obviously, we're seeing some lower numbers here, and I think that's a core element of what's going on with the story that as we see pricing drop and volumes drop, what are the right numbers to think about for you guys from a planning standpoint in terms of sell-through on both the Model S and Model X?

    顯然,我們在這裡看到了一些較低的數字,我認為這是故事發生的核心要素,當我們看到價格下降和銷量下降時,從規劃的角度來看,你們應該考慮的正確數字是多少就 Model S 和 Model X 的銷量而言?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think it's probably a bit too much focus on S and X. And the S and X are -- they are nice, but they're not -- and I think it's like without them, we couldn't spell sexy.

    我認為這可能有點過於關注 S 和 X。而 S 和 X 是——它們很好,但它們不是——我認為就像沒有它們,我們無法拼寫性感。

  • So like the main reason -- well, not the main reason, but a reason is we want to keep spelling sexy.

    所以就像主要原因一樣——嗯,不是主要原因,但一個原因是我們想要保持拼寫性感。

  • So that's -- not that I like -- that is a reason, I should say, not the main reason to keep going with S and X.

    所以這 - 我不喜歡 - 這是一個原因,我應該說,不是繼續使用 S 和 X 的主要原因。

  • But the story for Tesla future is fundamentally Model 3 and Model Y. And I think -- so like my guess is like long-term sales of -- long-term meaning couple years type thing, the demand for -- sales demand for 3 is like on order of 0.75 million units a year, and it's probably 1.25 million units a year for Model Y. So combined, it's like maybe 2 million from those 2 vehicles alone.

    但特斯拉未來的故事基本上是 Model 3 和 Model Y。而且我認為 - 所以就像我的猜測就像長期銷售 - 長期意味著幾年類型的東西,需求 - 對 3 的銷售需求每年的訂單量為 75 萬輛,而 Model Y 每年的訂單量可能為 125 萬輛。所以加起來,僅這兩輛車就可能有 200 萬輛。

  • And then S/X is like maybe 80,000 to 100,000 a year.

    然後 S/X 大概是每年 80,000 到 100,000 個。

  • So it's like 4% or 5% of the volume of 3 and Y. And then you throw like a truck in there, pickup truck and till the semi, it just gets smaller and smaller.

    所以它就像 3 和 Y 體積的 4% 或 5%。然後你像卡車一樣扔進去,皮卡車,直到半成品,它變得越來越小。

  • So they are great products, but they are -- from a volume standpoint, they're not all that important in the long term.

    所以它們是很棒的產品,但它們——從數量的角度來看,從長遠來看,它們並不是那麼重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

    下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • I'd like to ask you, Elon, about distribution.

    Elon,我想問你關於分發的問題。

  • So you made like -- you guys made a big change at the beginning of the year, going from like an almost 100% online distribution model.

    所以你們在年初做出了很大的改變,從幾乎 100% 的在線分銷模式開始。

  • You tried to push back on test drive and get people to buy the car, try it and return it if they don't like it.

    您試圖推遲試駕並讓人們購買汽車,嘗試並在他們不喜歡時將其退回。

  • So could you give us an update on how it is progressing?

    那麼,您能否向我們介紹一下它的進展情況?

  • Do you see this start becoming mostly like an online distribution -- following an online distribution model?

    您是否認為這開始變得更像是在線分發——遵循在線分發模式?

  • And I saw you opened 25 new retail locations in the quarter.

    我看到你們在本季度開設了 25 家新零售店。

  • So how do you see your retail footprint evolving over time?

    那麼,您如何看待您的零售足跡隨著時間的推移而發展?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • As I said, we opened 25 service locations.

    正如我所說,我們開設了 25 個服務點。

  • I think really what we find is that the word of mouth for Tesla is incredibly good.

    我認為我們發現特斯拉的口碑非常好。

  • So once there's an increase of customers in a particular area, they love the cars and they talk to all their friends about it.

    因此,一旦特定區域的客戶增加,他們就會愛上汽車,並與所有朋友談論它。

  • And that's really what drives sales.

    這才是真正推動銷售的因素。

  • So if you think of like a retail location is kind of like a viral seed in an area.

    因此,如果您認為零售地點有點像某個地區的病毒種子。

  • It would grow organically by itself, but the retail location is actually is like a viral seed.

    它會自行有機增長,但零售位置實際上就像一個病毒種子。

  • It's not that -- they aren't needed.

    不是那樣——它們不是必需的。

  • They're like an accelerant.

    他們就像一個促進劑。

  • But what is needed for sales in any given area, and I'd say this worldwide, frequently we've been told like this country is different or that country is different.

    但是在任何給定區域的銷售需要什麼,我會在全球範圍內這麼說,我們經常被告知這個國家不同或那個國家不同。

  • I'm like people around the world pretty much want the same thing so -- in my experience.

    我就像世界各地的人都想要同樣的東西——根據我的經驗。

  • But they have to have a service location that's convenient.

    但他們必須有一個方便的服務地點。

  • So it can't be like you've got to drive 5 hours to a service location.

    因此,您不可能需要開車 5 個小時才能到達服務地點。

  • You have to have service.

    你必須有服務。

  • You have to have supercharging and charging all sorted out.

    你必須把增壓和充電都搞定。

  • You've got to have good consumer financing.

    你必須有良好的消費者融資。

  • And then the price must make sense.

    然後價格必須合理。

  • And any place where those 4 things are true, our sales are great.

    在這四件事屬實的任何地方,我們的銷售都很棒。

  • So we're rolling out service centers like crazy.

    所以我們正在瘋狂地推出服務中心。

  • Service centers are the key to sales, not the retail locations.

    服務中心是銷售的關鍵,而不是零售地點。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes, and we're going city by city on the service center point.

    是的,我們將在服務中心點一個城市一個城市地去。

  • We're looking at where our populations are of existing customers.

    我們正在研究現有客戶的人口分佈在哪裡。

  • We're mapping driving time from the customers to the service centers inclusive of traffic to improve densification of our service centers in the locations in which our customers currently reside.

    我們正在繪製從客戶到服務中心的駕駛時間(包括交通),以提高我們客戶當前居住地的服務中心的密集度。

  • We do have areas that are underrepresented for service centers where the drive time is too long or there are populations don't have appropriate access to charging in the service centers.

    我們確實有一些服務中心人數不足的地區,因為這些地區的駕駛時間太長,或者有些人無法在服務中心獲得適當的充電服務。

  • And we're working as fast as we can to get places up and running in those areas.

    我們正在盡可能快地工作,以便在這些地區建立和運行。

  • So it's very systematically being mapped out with a focus on service and supercharging as opposed to a retail presence.

    因此,它非常系統地進行了規劃,重點是服務和增壓,而不是零售業務。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Supercharging is incredibly important.

    增壓非常重要。

  • You can't just have like 80% of the routes that somebody wants to take.

    你不能只擁有某人想要走的 80% 的路線。

  • You need 100% of the routes because a car is like -- it's really freedom to travel.

    你需要 100% 的路線,因為汽車就像——旅行真的很自由。

  • Anything that inhibits freedom to travel impairs the fundamental value of the product.

    任何阻礙旅行自由的事物都會損害產品的基本價值。

  • Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

    Drew Baglino - Former VP of Technology

  • Or perceived.

    或感知。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes, exactly.

    對,就是這樣。

  • Real or perceived freedom to travel.

    真正或感知到的旅行自由。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • So Elon, you mentioned the importance of full self-driving for gross margin.

    所以埃隆,你提到了全自動駕駛對毛利率的重要性。

  • You've also mentioned the importance of China.

    你也提到了中國的重要性。

  • Do you expect to be able to offer the full self-driving suite that you plan to offer in the U.S. and China, and I guess even in Europe where they've been also a little bit tougher on regulating?

    您是否希望能夠提供您計劃在美國和中國提供的完整自動駕駛套件,我想即使在歐洲,他們的監管也更加嚴格?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We expect to be able to offer full self-driving actually everywhere except EU because there's just some committee rules that were put in place years ago that need to be changed.

    我們希望能夠在除歐盟之外的任何地方提供完全自動駕駛,因為只有一些幾年前製定的委員會規則需要更改。

  • It's up -- from a technical standpoint, it's very doable, but we just need to work through the regulatory committees to get the regulatory approvals and rules changed.

    是的——從技術角度來看,這是非常可行的,但我們只需要通過監管委員會來獲得監管批准和規則的改變。

  • It's just -- it all just takes a bit longer than in other places.

    只是——這一切只需要比其他地方更長的時間。

  • But I think we'll see a lot of pressure from our customers in Europe to have these rules changed so they can have access to full self-driving.

    但我認為我們會看到來自歐洲客戶的巨大壓力,要求他們改變這些規則,以便他們能夠獲得完全自動駕駛。

  • And I think at the end of the day, the regulators will answer to the public.

    而且我認為,監管機構最終會對公眾做出回應。

  • So I think it's just a temporary thing, and it's quite specific to EU rules.

    所以我認為這只是暫時的,而且是歐盟規則特有的。

  • And we're just not present really when those rules were drafted.

    起草這些規則時,我們真的不在場。

  • So that's what's got put in place.

    所以這就是已經到位的。

  • But they're making a ton of sense, but we just got to work through the process to change them.

    但它們很有意義,但我們只需要完成整個過程來改變它們。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then the second question is you mentioned service a number of times.

    然後第二個問題是您多次提到服務。

  • There's obviously been some, I think, growing frustration with owners.

    我認為,顯然有些人對業主越來越失望。

  • And you mentioned parts availability, and you've issued the dealership model.

    你提到了零件的可用性,並且你已經發布了經銷模式。

  • But I guess how do you plan on increasing parts availability without the corresponding working capital commitment that would be required as the fleet continues to grow?

    但我想您如何計劃在沒有相應的營運資金承諾的情況下增加零件的可用性,而隨著機隊的不斷增長,您將需要這些資金投入嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • It's actually just taking the parts that were stored in a bunch of warehouses and just moving them to the service centers.

    它實際上只是將存放在一堆倉庫中的零件轉移到服務中心。

  • And the thing that makes sense is, I think, to have the service centers where the parts are kind of all on the wall, and it's like a supermarket.

    我認為,有意義的事情是讓服務中心的零件都在牆上,就像超市一樣。

  • Like you always know where the Cocoa Puffs are, and you just go meet there and go to grab it.

    就像你總是知道可可泡芙在哪裡,然後你就去那裡碰面然後去拿它。

  • And then you just replenish the shelves with parts.

    然後你只需用零件補充貨架。

  • And so what we're basically putting all parts that are used more frequently than like 6 weeks literally on the walls of the service centers.

    因此,我們基本上將所有使用頻率高於 6 週的部件放在服務中心的牆上。

  • There's no ordering of the part.

    沒有零件的訂購。

  • You just go take it off shelf and put it on the car.

    您只需將其從架子上取下並放在汽車上即可。

  • We really want to get to not merely same-day service but same hour.

    我們真的很想獲得不僅是當天服務,而且是同一時間。

  • Sort of like Jiffy Lube but applied generally to service.

    有點像 Jiffy Lube,但通常適用於服務。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And specifically on the working capital piece of this, we actually have a significant amount of service parts inventory.

    特別是在營運資金方面,我們實際上有大量的維修零件庫存。

  • The challenge is it's not just at the service centers.

    挑戰在於它不僅僅是在服務中心。

  • And so a lot of the lag that is experienced is we have to get the part from the distribution center to the service center.

    因此,我們所經歷的很多滯後是我們必須將零件從配送中心運送到服務中心。

  • And so by moving -- by localizing the parts, I don't expect that to be a large working capital drain on the company.

    因此,通過移動 - 通過本地化零件,我不認為這會對公司造成大量營運資金流失。

  • It might actually be the reverse where we don't need to store as many potentially.

    實際上可能正好相反,我們不需要存儲盡可能多的潛在數據。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And also just having parts, if I may add, if we made them internally or if they're made at a supplier, just sending them directly to the service center instead of like having them go through a bunch of distribution outlets.

    如果我可以補充的話,也只是有零件,如果我們在內部製造它們或者如果它們是在供應商處製造的,只需將它們直接發送到服務中心,而不是讓它們通過一堆分銷網點。

  • In fact, like when I was in China on my last trip, I was like asking the China team, "Hey, is there anything silly that we're doing that we should fix?" And they said, "Yes, well, several of the parts that require replacement are literally made in China, and then we end up shipping them to New Jersey and then back to China.

    事實上,就像我上次去中國的時候一樣,我就像問中國團隊,“嘿,我們有什麼愚蠢的事情需要解決嗎?”他們說,“是的,有幾個需要更換的零件實際上是在中國製造的,然後我們最終將它們運送到新澤西州,然後再運回中國。

  • And could we please just ship them like literally across the road?" And I'm like, yes, no problem.

    我們能不能像字面上一樣把它們運到馬路對面?”我想,是的,沒問題。

  • There's always like crazy things that happen, if you're like -- if you have a 45,000-person company and then just kind of basically stop doing silly things.

    總是會發生一些瘋狂的事情,如果你是這樣的——如果你有一個 45,000 人的公司,然後基本上停止做愚蠢的事情。

  • It's, yes, a lot of what is needed for improvement.

    是的,這是需要改進的很多東西。

  • Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

    Zachary Kirkhorn - CFO

  • And as the scale of the business increases, the economics of localization of things like parts distribution make a lot more sense, whereas in the past, when the company was smaller, having centralized centers was easier from a cost perspective.

    隨著業務規模的擴大,零部件分銷等本地化的經濟性變得更有意義,而在過去,當公司規模較小時,從成本角度來看,集中中心更容易。

  • So the business -- because the company is growing so fast, as Elon has mentioned, we have to continue to redesign processes and systems to restabilize ourselves for the new plateau of volume, and then we'll grow again, and we'll need to rebuild those processes.

    所以業務——因為公司發展如此之快,正如 Elon 所提到的,我們必須繼續重新設計流程和系統,以重新穩定自己以適應新的銷量高原,然後我們將再次增長,我們需要重建這些流程。

  • Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

    Elon R. Musk - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean Tesla is the only company that makes things in volume that is fully vertically integrated all the way through sales and service and charge and everything.

    我的意思是,特斯拉是唯一一家通過銷售、服務、收費等方式完全垂直整合的公司。

  • So we really just need to look at total system efficiency and say if Tesla was the auto industry, how would we do it to maximize economic efficiency.

    所以我們真的只需要看看整個系統的效率,然後說如果特斯拉是汽車行業,我們將如何做到這一點以最大限度地提高經濟效益。

  • And that's -- and then we're going kind of like recalculate that optimization as we achieve greater scale.

    那就是 - 然後我們會在我們實現更大的規模時重新計算優化。

  • We're confident we can achieve a fundamentally better economic efficiency than the rest of the auto industry.

    我們有信心,我們可以從根本上實現比汽車行業其他行業更好的經濟效率。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Unfortunately, that's all the time we have for today.

    不幸的是,這就是我們今天的所有時間。

  • So thank you so much for all your questions, and we'll speak to you again in the next 3 months.

    非常感謝您提出的所有問題,我們將在接下來的 3 個月內再次與您交談。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference.

    女士們,先生們,今天的會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for your participation.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    此時您可以斷開線路。