特斯拉 (TSLA) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to Tesla's Q4 2019 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎收聽特斯拉 2019 年第四季財務業績和問答網路直播。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。（操作員指示）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議交給發言人、投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Sherry, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Fourth Quarter 2019 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives.

謝謝雪莉，大家下午好，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2019 年第四季問答網路直播。今天與我一起參加會議的還有伊隆馬斯克、扎卡里柯克霍恩和其他一些高階主管。

Our Q4 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們的第四季業績在下午 1 點左右公佈。我們在與該網路廣播相同的連結中發布了更新版本，更新內容採用太平洋時間。

During the call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

在電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於多種風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

（操作員指示）但在我們進入問答環節之前，伊隆有一些開場白。埃隆？

Thanks, Martin. So Q4 was another strong quarter for the company. Deliveries reached over 112,000 vehicles in a single quarter. It's hard to think of a similar product with such strong demand that it can generate more than $20 billion in revenue with 0 advertising spend. I think that's -- where we do say that from time to time, I think it's often overlooked, but to have the highest-demand electric vehicle in the world with no advertising spend is, I think, quite remarkable and speaks to the nature of the product and the fact that the product itself is compelling enough to generate that demand without a bunch of advertising.

謝謝，馬丁。因此，第四季度對於該公司來說又是一個強勁的季度。單季交車量超過112,000輛。很難想像有一款類似的產品需求如此強勁，能夠在零廣告支出的情況下創造超過 200 億美元的收入。我認為那是——我們確實不時會這麼說，我認為這經常被忽視，但在沒有廣告支出的情況下擁有世界上需求量最高的電動汽車，我認為這是相當了不起的，這說明了產品的性質，以及產品本身俱有足夠的吸引力，可以在沒有大量廣告的情況下產生這種需求。

At our Fremont factory, we're producing at a rate roughly the same as the NUMMI factory did in its record year of 2006. And obviously, we expect to exceed that significantly this year. This rate of production was [cheap] before we even started to produce the Model Y out of Fremont. So there's a lot of potential to go beyond that number.

在我們的弗里蒙特工廠，我們的生產速度與 NUMMI 工廠在 2006 年創紀錄的生產速度大致相同。顯然，我們預計今年這一數字將大幅超越這一水平。在我們開始在弗里蒙特生產 Model Y 之前，這種生產率已經很便宜了。因此，超越這個數字的潛力還很大。

For the Shanghai factory, I'd like to say congratulations again to the team in Shanghai on launching Model 3 last quarter and achieving the first deliveries earlier this year. I'm really excited and optimistic about the potential for the Shanghai factory. I think it's going to be an incredible asset to the company. And we also broke ground on the Model Y factory in Shanghai. So a lot of good progress there.

對於上海工廠，我想再次祝賀上海團隊上個季度推出 Model 3 並在今年初實現首批交付。我對上海工廠的潛力感到非常興奮和樂觀。我認為這將成為公司的寶貴財富。另外，我們也在上海破土動工興建 Model Y 工廠。因此那裡取得了許多良好的進展。

Regarding Model Y, it was only 10 months ago that we revealed a Model Y prototype. And now in January this year, we started producing Model Y in limited volumes already. Now this is thanks to a great effort from our engineering team. And we managed to achieve, by far, the highest energy efficiency of any electric SUV ever produced at 4.1 miles per kilowatt hour, which means Model Y all-wheel drive got an EPA rating of 315 miles. This improvement is reflected on the configurator as of today. This is above what we've previously stated by a pretty significant margin. And then just with great acceleration, top speed, it's really just incredible specs all around.

關於 Model Y，我們僅在 10 個月前發布了 Model Y 原型。今年 1 月，我們已經開始限量生產 Model Y。這要感謝我們工程團隊的巨大努力。到目前為止，我們成功實現了有史以來電動 SUV 的最高能源效率，達到每千瓦時 4.1 英里，這意味著 Model Y 全輪驅動獲得了 EPA 評級 315 英里。從今天起，這項改進已反映在配置器上。這比我們之前所說的高出很多。再加上出色的加速度和最高速度，它的各方面規格都令人難以置信。

For the Cybertruck, a few months ago, we revealed the -- obviously, remember, we revealed the Cybertruck, that was -- that went viral. And we tried to build a product that -- a product that is superior in every way without any preconceptions of how such a product should look. So it really just -- from the standpoint of what's the most badass, futuristic, armored personnel carrier that kicks the ass of any other pickup truck, basically that's the goal. And we wanted it to look like something that just kind of came out of a sci-fi movie set from the future. And the demand has been incredible. We've never seen actually such a level of demand at this -- we've never seen anything like it, basically. I think we will make as -- about as many as we can sell for many years. So as many -- we will sell as many as we can make. It's going to be pretty nuts. So -- and I think, actually, the product is better than people realize even. They don't even have enough information to realize just the awesomeness of it. It's just great.

對於 Cyber​​truck，幾個月前，我們發布了——顯然，記住，我們發布了 Cyber​​truck，它——很快就火了。我們試圖打造一款在各方面都表現優異的產品，並且不帶任何關於產品外觀的先入為主觀念。所以實際上——從最酷炫、最具未來感、能打敗任何其他皮卡車的裝甲運兵車的角度來看，基本上這就是目標。我們希望它看起來像是從未來科幻電影中走出來的一樣。且需求量非常大。我們實際上從未見過如此高的需求——基本上，我們從未見過這樣的情況。我認為，我們將生產出足夠未來很多年銷售的量。所以，我們會盡可能地銷售我們生產的數量。這將會非常瘋狂。所以——我認為，實際上，該產品比人們意識到的還要好。他們甚至沒有足夠的資訊來認識到它的奇妙之處。這真是太棒了。

So -- and then stepping back in 2018, from a financial standpoint, we were -- free cash flow rate was breakeven. But in 2019, we managed to generate more than $1 billion of free cash flow while building a factory in Shanghai in record time and while building parts of Model Y in production. So I think for us to have this level of free cash flow while making massive investments in capacity while developing new products, while improving the core engineering, is a testament to the, I think, incredible performance of the Tesla team. And I'm just so proud to work with such a great team.

因此，回顧 2018 年，從財務角度來看，我們的自由現金流率已達到損益兩平。但在 2019 年，我們成功創造了超過 10 億美元的自由現金流，同時以創紀錄的時間在上海建立了一家工廠，並生產了 Model Y 的零件。因此，我認為，我們在對產能進行大規模投資、開發新產品、改進核心工程的同時，擁有這種水平的自由現金流，證明了特斯拉團隊的出色表現。我非常自豪能夠與如此優秀的團隊合作。

I'd like to thank the whole Tesla team for their ongoing work on cost control. That's what has allowed us to get to these compelling financial numbers, while at the same time, growing company at an incredible pace.

我要感謝整個特斯拉團隊在成本控制方面所做的持續工作。這使得我們能夠獲得這些令人信服的財務數據，同時公司也以驚人的速度成長。

And in conclusion, when I think of what we have in front of us in the next couple of years, we've got Model Y, we've got Giga Berlin, Tesla Semi, Solarglass Roof, Cybertruck, some very exciting improvements in battery technology, we've got Full Self-Driving, the next-gen Roadster and probably a bunch of other products we'll come up with, too. It's hard to think of another company that has more exciting product and technology road map.

總而言之，當我想到未來幾年我們面臨的情況時，我們有 Model Y、Giga Berlin、Tesla Semi、Solarglass Roof、Cyber​​truck，電池技術的一些非常令人興奮的改進，我們有全自動駕駛、下一代 Roadster，可能還會推出一系列其他產品。很難想像還有哪家公司擁有如此令人興奮的產品和技術路線圖。

So super fired up about where Tesla will be in the next 10 years. If you look back 10 years from today to 2010, we will produce approximately 1,000x more cars in 2020 than we produced in 2010. One thousand. And we have also Solarglass and solar retrofit and Powerwall, Powerpack, all those other things, too. So where will we be in 10 years? Very excited to consider the prospect.

我非常期待特斯拉未來 10 年的發展。如果回顧從今天到 2010 年的 10 年，我們到 2020 年生產的汽車數量將比 2010 年多出約 1,000 倍。一千。我們還有 Solarglass、太陽能改造、Powerwall、Powerpack 以及其他所有產品。那麼 10 年後我們會在哪裡呢？非常高興考慮這個前景。

Thank you very much, Elon. And Zach has some opening remarks as well.

非常感謝，埃隆。札克也發表了一些開場白。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. This past year was truly transformational for Tesla, and I want to thank everyone who's been a part of making this happen.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。過去的一年對特斯拉來說是真正改變的一年，我要感謝所有為實現這一目標做出貢獻的人。

On 2019, a few key points I'd like to highlight. On demand, while we've mentioned this a few times, it's worth highlighting once again. Over the course of the year, we've transitioned entirely from generating Model 3 orders from a reservation backlog to generating new and organic demand. We've also seen a stabilization of Model 3 ASPs, even increasing slightly in Q4. And we've seen an increase in ASPs of S and X after the launch of the longer-range versions in Q2.

關於2019年，我想強調幾個重點。按需，雖然我們已經提到過幾次了，但還是值得再次強調。在這一年中，我們已經完全從透過預訂積壓來產生 Model 3 訂單轉變為產生新的有機需求。我們也看到 Model 3 的平均售價趨於穩定，甚至在第四季略有上漲。在第二季推出長續航版後，我們看到 S 和 X 的平均售價增加。

With respect to capacity expansion, we've greatly learned from the development and launch of Model 3 in Fremont and Reno. As a result, we've been able to bring new production capacity on board faster and with less cost. This is evidenced by the launch of Model 3 in Shanghai as well as Model Y in Fremont, programs that were both launched in under one year.

在產能擴張方面，我們從弗里蒙特和里諾的 Model 3 的開發和發布中學到了很多東西。因此，我們能夠以更快的速度和更低的成本實現新的生產能力。上海推出的 Model 3 和弗里蒙特推出的 Model Y 就是明證，這兩個項目都是在不到一年的時間內啟動的。

Financially, we have demonstrated multiple quarters of strong cash generation, enabled through higher volumes, improvements to capital efficiency, progress on working capital management and continued improvement in our product and operational costs. And we are able to achieve positive GAAP net income in both Q3 and Q4 for many of the same reasons that enabled strong cash generation. We've also made progress on recurring software-based revenue with the implementation of premium connectivity and the beginning of upgrades available for purchase via the Tesla mobile app.

從財務角度來看，我們已連續多個季度展現出強勁的現金產生能力，這得益於銷量的增加、資本效率的提高、營運資本管理的進步以及產品和運營成本的持續改善。我們之所以能夠在第三季和第四季實現正的 GAAP 淨收入，其原因與實現強勁現金流產生的原因有很多相同。透過實施高級連接以及開始透過特斯拉行動應用程式購買升級，我們還在基於軟體的經常性收入方面取得了進展。

Finally, on stock-based compensation, it increased sequentially by $82 million, driven almost entirely by an expense related to the next tranche of the CEO grant. This is a result of our improved expected financial performance of the company, which the CEO stock grant is tied to.

最後，股票薪酬環比增加了 8,200 萬美元，這幾乎完全是由與下一批 CEO 獎勵相關的費用推動的。這是因為我們預期公司的財務表現有所改善，而執行長股票授予與此掛鉤。

As we look ahead to 2020, this, again, will be an important year for the company. Our task ahead is to execute on the next phase of growth while managing cash flows to support that growth. On Model Y, we expect first deliveries in limited quantities later this quarter and will ramp over subsequent quarters. As mentioned previously, we are forecasting higher gross margins on Model Y compared to the Model 3.

展望 2020 年，這對公司來說又將是重要的一年。我們未來的任務是執行下一階段的成長，同時管理現金流以支持這一成長。對於 Model Y，我們預計本季稍後將首次交付少量產品，並將在隨後的幾季逐步增加交付量。如前所述，我們預測 Model Y 的毛利率將高於 Model 3。

This year, for the Shanghai-built Model 3, we expect to achieve run rate production and delivery rates. In addition, we expect to have completed the majority of planned supply chain localization at the factory or in the region. This is one of the most important components to achieve lower production costs for the site. We are also seeing strong order rates for the locally built Model 3 and remain focused on continuing the production ramp and managing costs. We also anticipate significant progress on factory construction of Shanghai- and Berlin-built Model Y, which will result in continued increases in capital spending.

今年，對於上海生產的 Model 3，我們預計將滿載生產和交付。此外，我們預計將在工廠或地區完成大部分計劃中的供應鏈本地化。這是實現網站降低製作成本的最重要因素之一。我們也看到本地生產的 Model 3 的訂單率很高，我們將繼續專注於繼續提高產量和管理成本。我們也預計上海和柏林生產的 Model Y 工廠建設將取得重大進展，這將導致資本支出持續增加。

On operating expenses, I expect an increase over the course of the year to support our growing product pipeline and international footprint. However, OpEx growth should increase at a lower rate than top line revenue.

在營運費用方面，我預計今年的營運費用將會增加，以支援我們不斷成長的產品線和國際影響力。然而，營運支出的成長速度應該低於營業收入的成長速度。

Overall, we believe this will set us up for our strongest annual financial performance yet, with sufficient forecasted cash flows to support investments related to our growth and further strengthening of our balance sheet.

總體而言，我們相信這將為我們帶來迄今為止最強勁的年度財務業績，並有足夠的預測現金流來支持與我們的成長相關的投資並進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

For Q1, please keep in mind that the industry is always impacted by seasonality. Additionally, we are in the process of ramping 2 major products, Model 3 in Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, which I expect will temporarily weigh on our margins. We are also in the early stages of understanding if and to what extent we may be temporarily impacted by the coronavirus. At this point, we're expecting a 1- to 1.5-week delay in the ramp of Shanghai-built Model 3 due to a government-required factory shutdown. This may slightly impact profitability for the quarter but is limited as the profit contribution from Model 3 Shanghai remains in the early stages.

對於第一季度，請記住該行業總是受到季節性的影響。此外，我們正在增加兩款主要產品的產量，即上海的 Model 3 和弗里蒙特的 Model Y，我預計這會暫時影響我們的利潤率。我們還處於了解我們是否會以及在多大程度上受到冠狀病毒的暫時影響的早期階段。目前，由於政府要求工廠停工，我們預計上海生產的 Model 3 的生產將延遲 1 到 1.5 週。這可能會對本季的獲利能力產生輕微影響，但由於 Model 3 上海的利潤貢獻仍處於早期階段，因此影響有限。

We are also closely monitoring whether there'll be interruptions in the supply chain for cars built in Fremont. So far, we're not aware of anything material, but it's important to caveat that this is an evolving story. However, we have more than sufficient cash to continue our expansion plans while further strengthening the balance sheet.

我們也密切關注弗里蒙特生產的汽車供應鏈是否會中斷。到目前為止，我們還沒有發現任何實質的內容，但需要注意的是，這是一個不斷發展的故事。然而，我們擁有足夠的現金來繼續我們的擴張計劃，同時進一步加強資產負債表。

Thank you, again, for your support, and we will turn to questions.

再次感謝您的支持，我們將開始提問。

Thank you. We are going to take the first questions from retail investors compiled by Say Technologies.

謝謝。我們將回答由 Say Technologies 整理的第一批散戶投資者問題。

So the first retail investor question is, "since solar is required for all new home constructions in California, do you have any substantial orders for Solarglass Roofs from any of the large California homebuilders that you can share? What's the 2020 target for the number of Solarglass Roof installations in California?"

因此，第一個散戶投資者的問題是，「由於加州所有新建住宅都需要太陽能，您是否有來自加州任何大型住宅建築商的大量太陽能玻璃屋頂訂單可以分享？2020 年加州太陽能玻璃屋頂安裝數量的目標是多少？ 」

Well, I think we do -- we are seeing, mostly from a small base, exponential growth in demand and output for solar -- for the Solarglass Roof. So it's difficult to predict what the demand will be this year, except that the demand is very strong. And we are working also not just through Tesla Solar Roof but also through new homebuilders and through just the roofing industry in general, whether it's in North America, on the order of 4 million new roofs per year. So we see a lot of interest.

嗯，我認為我們確實看到了——主要是從小規模來看，太陽能玻璃屋頂的需求和產量呈指數級增長。因此很難預測今年的需求會如何，但可以肯定的是，需求非常強勁。我們不僅透過特斯拉太陽能屋頂開展工作，還透過新房屋建築商以及整個屋頂行業開展工作，無論是在北美，每年大約有 400 萬個新屋頂。因此我們看到了很多興趣。

And so it's just a question of refining the installation process, getting lots of crews trained to do the installation. But over time, I would expect a significant percentage of new roofs to be something to use Solarglass in one form or another. It's really going to be a choice of do you want a roof that is alive with power or dead without. And I think people will want a live roof that generates power and looks good and lasts a long time, and it's the future we want.

因此，這只是一個改進安裝過程的問題，需要培訓大量人員進行安裝。但隨著時間的推移，我預計相當大比例的新屋頂將以某種形式使用 Solarglass。這實際上將是一個選擇，你想要一個有電時活躍的屋頂還是一個沒有電時死寂的屋頂。我認為人們會想要一個既能發電、又美觀、又耐用的屋頂，這就是我們想要的未來。

So it will be a significant product, but because it is a new and quite revolutionary product and there's a lot of challenges to overcome, but they will be overcome, and this will be a major product line of Tesla. And the Buffalo factory is doing great. So, yes.

所以它將是一款重要的產品，但因為它是一款全新且具有革命性的產品，還有很多挑戰需要克服，但這些挑戰都會被克服，這將成為特斯拉的一條主要產品線。布法羅工廠的經營狀況非常好。是的。

Thank you. And the second question from retail shareholders is, "will you release the Tesla ride-hailing network app before full autonomy and change the terms of Tesla Insurance to allow owners to be drivers on the network? If so, when will this happen? Might want to target California airports first. Also a good place to add Superchargers."

謝謝。而散戶股東的第二個問題是，“你們會在完全自動駕駛之前發布特斯拉叫車網絡應用程序，並改變特斯拉保險的條款，允許車主成為網絡司機嗎？”如果會的話，什麼時候會發生？可能首先要瞄準加州的機場。這也是增加超級充電站的好地方。 」

Sorry, it sounds like more question than one.

抱歉，這聽起來像是多個問題。

Yes, it's a bit of a bundle. Yes.

是的，有點捆綁。是的。

Well, I think it's -- it probably will make sense to have the -- to enable car sharing in advance of the kind of sort of driving robotaxi fleet because the car sharing can be done before Full Self-Driving is approved by regulators. So it's probably something that we would enable before the full sort of robotaxi fleet is enabled. And it sounds like there were some other questions bundled in there.

嗯，我認為在自動駕駛計程車車隊出現之前實現汽車共享是有意義的，因為汽車共享可以在監管機構批准全自動駕駛之前完成。因此，這可能是我們在全面啟用自動駕駛計程車車隊之前要啟用的功能。聽起來其中還包含一些其他問題。

Superchargers at airports.

機場的超充能站。

Sure. Yes. Yes, probably, we'll have Superchargers in airports. We'll have Superchargers wherever we see that there is a need for Superchargers.

當然。是的。是的，我們可能會在機場設置超級充電站。只要有超級充電站的需求，我們就會在那裡安裝超級充電站。

And then on the insurance part of the question, it is our intent to allow people to put their cars into ride-sharing or the FSD network using Tesla Insurance. That's not currently the case, but by the time that this is available, it's our intent to get that ready.

然後關於問題的保險部分，我們的目的是允許人們使用特斯拉保險將他們的汽車投入共乘或 FSD 網路。目前情況並非如此，但當此功能可用時，我們打算做好準備。

Yes, thank you. Next question from retail investors is, "how many California owners are currently insured with Tesla Insurance? What's the target for Tesla Insurance in 2020? When will you start to significantly leverage the data you have from the fleet to lower the cost of your coverage? Will we get premium discount of certain percent?"

是的，謝謝。散戶的下一個問題是：「目前有多少加州車主買了特斯拉保險？特斯拉保險2020年的目標是什麼？何時會開始充分利用車隊數據來降低保險成本？我們會得到一定比例的保費折扣嗎？ 」

Yes. I mean, go ahead, Zach.

是的。我的意思是，繼續吧，扎克。

Yes. So Tesla Insurance is currently available in California. A couple of things that we're working on, on this front. The first is to expand it to other locations. And we're preparing the regulatory processes -- preparing our processes to go through the regulatory processes in those locations. We're also working on the processes to continue to adjust our rates in California, which also have to go through regulatory processes as insurance is quite heavily regulated. And that's where we're spending our time focusing on Tesla Insurance right now. There's a significant amount of innovation, as we've discussed before in this space, exactly getting to the intent of what the question here is, using our technology to reduce rates. And this will be rolled in over time.

是的。特斯拉保險目前在加州可以購買。就此而言，我們正在進行一些工作。第一是將其擴展到其他地方。我們正在準備監管流程—準備我們的流程以通過這些地方的監管流程。我們還在努力繼續調整加州的保險費率，由於保險監理非常嚴格，這也必須經過監理程序。這就是我們現在花時間關注特斯拉保險的地方。正如我們之前在這個領域討論過的，有大量的創新，準確地說是達到了這裡的問題的目的，即使用我們的技術來降低利率。隨著時間的推移，這一目標將會實現。

The last part of the question was, will there be a discount for using Autopilot with our cars?

問題的最後一部分是，我們的汽車使用自動駕駛儀會有折扣嗎？

Oh, yes. Yes. Yes, there will be.

哦是的。是的。是的，會有的。

The rate card for California, Tesla Insurance already considers the safety features associated with Autopilot.

加州的特斯拉保險費率表已經考慮了與自動駕駛儀相關的安全功能。

Right. But I think it would make sense for us to close loop on higher use of Autopilot for it reduces the insurance cost as well as the probability of injury. So I think insurance is going to be, I think, quite a major product of Tesla over time. The amount of money that people spend on car insurance is like a remarkably big percentage of the cost of a car. You can lease a Model 3 right now for $400 a month, but a typical owner in California will be paying sort of between $100 and $200 a month in insurance.

正確的。但我認為，我們應該更多地使用自動駕駛儀，因為它可以降低保險成本以及受傷的可能性。所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，保險將成為特斯拉的一個主要產品。人們花在汽車保險上的錢佔汽車成本的很大一部分。現在您可以以每月 400 美元的價格租用一輛 Model 3，但加州的典型車主每月需要支付 100 至 200 美元的保險費。

So we're talking about something which is maybe 1/4 to 1/2 of the cost of the lease of the car is insurance. And a lot of that insurance cost is just because the insurance companies don't have good information about the drivers. And there's no good way to provide feedback, where it's a very poor feedback mechanism in terms of the insurance rates versus the actual way that the car is being driven, whereas we can do that in real time. It's a fundamental information advantage that insurance companies don't have.

所以我們討論的是汽車租賃費用中大約 1/4 到 1/2 是保險費用。而大部分保險費用只是因為保險公司缺乏有關駕駛員的良好資訊。而且沒有很好的方法來提供回饋，就保險費率與汽車實際駕駛方式而言，這是一個非常糟糕的回饋機制，而我們可以即時做到這一點。這是保險公司不具備的基本資訊優勢。

Thank you. The next question is, "you set expectations that you would be feature-complete on FSD by the end of 2019. Can you please provide an update on when will we see this with end users? Where are you in retrofitting the FSD computer to older models?"

謝謝。下一個問題是，「您期望在 2019 年底前完成 FSD 的功能。您能否提供有關何時最終用戶能夠看到此功能的最新消息？您正在為舊款車型改裝 FSD 電腦嗎？ 」

Well, I mean to be precise, I said I was hoping it would be feature-complete with most FSD by the end of last year. We got pretty close. It's looking like we might be feature-complete in a few months. Feature-complete means just like it has some chance of going from your home to work, let's say, with no interventions. So that's -- it doesn't mean the features are working well, but it means it has above 0 chance. So I think that's looking like maybe it's going to be a couple of months from now.

嗯，準確地說，我說過我希望它能夠在去年年底之前完成大多數 FSD 的功能。我們已經很接近了。看起來我們可能在幾個月內完成所有功能。功能齊全意味著就像它有機會從你的家到工作場所一樣，無需任何干預。所以，這並不意味著這些功能運作良好，但意味著它有高於 0 的機會。所以我認為這可能要等幾個月後。

And -- but what isn't obvious regarding Autopilot and Full Self-Driving is just how much work has been going into improving the foundational elements of autonomy. The core Autopilot software and AI team is just, I think, very, very strong and making great progress. And we're really only beginning to take full advantage of the Autopilot hardware, the FSD hardware. So I think it's -- the apparent progress, as seen by consumers, will seem to be extremely rapid. But actually, what's really going on, it seems like that is just having the foundational software be very strong, have really strong foundation.

但關於自動駕駛和全自動駕駛，不太明顯的是，人們為改善自動駕駛的基礎要素付出了多少努力。我認為核心自動駕駛軟體和人工智慧團隊非常非常強大並且取得了巨大進步。而我們實際上才剛開始充分利用自動駕駛儀硬體和 FSD 硬體。所以我認為──從消費者的角度來看，明顯的進步似乎非常迅速。但實際上，真正發生的情況似乎只是基礎軟體非常強大，並且擁有非常強大的基礎。

And then a really fundamental thing is moving to video training. So in terms of labeling, labeling with video and all 8 cameras simultaneously. This is a really -- I mean, in terms of labeling efficiency, arguably like a 3 order of magnitude improvement in labeling efficiency. For those who know about this, it's extremely fundamental. So that's really great progress on that.

然後一個真正根本的事情就是轉向視訊培訓。因此，就標記而言，使用視訊和所有 8 個攝影機同時進行標記。這確實——我的意思是，就標記效率而言，可以說標記效率提高了 3 個數量級。對於了解這一點的人來說，這是極其基礎的。所以這確實是一個很大的進步。

Thank you. And the last retail investor question comes from Kendall. "Since most retail investors seem to understand Tesla better than analysts and are risking a larger part of their own personal wealth on Tesla, doesn't it make sense to take mostly questions on these earnings calls from us, via Say? Do you even have to take questions -- answer questions from analysts?"

謝謝。最後一個散戶的問題來自肯德爾。「由於大多數散戶投資者似乎比分析師更了解特斯拉，並將自己的大部分個人財富押注在特斯拉上，所以透過 Say 來回答我們在這些財報電話會議上提出的大部分問題不是很有意義嗎？你甚至需要回答分析師的問題嗎？ 」

Well, I guess we don't have to. I do think that a lot of retail investors actually have a deeper and more accurate insights than many of the big institutional investors and certainly a better insight than many of the analysts. It seems like if people really looked at some of the smart retail investors, analysts and -- what some of the smart -- smaller retail investors predicted about the future of Tesla, that would -- you'd probably get the highest accuracy and remarkable insight from some of those predictions.

嗯，我想我們沒必要這麼做。我確實認為，許多散戶投資者實際上比許多大型機構投資者擁有更深入、更準確的洞察力，當然也比許多分析師擁有更好的洞察力。似乎如果人們真的專注於一些聰明的散戶投資者、分析師以及一些聰明的小型散戶投資者對特斯拉未來的預測，那麼你可能會從其中一些預測中獲得最高的準確度和非凡的洞察力。

Okay. So now let's switch to institutional shareholder questions. The #1 question is, you have spoken previously about Shanghai Giga being 65% lower CapEx per unit of capacity. Have you learned to do anything better or different from an OpEx perspective? And if yes, what kind of impact might we expect on the long-term gross margin?

好的。現在讓我們轉到機構股東的問題。第一個問題是，您之前說過上海千兆每單位產能的資本支出降低了 65%。從營運支出 (OpEx) 角度來看，您是否學會了做任何更好或不同的事情？如果是的話，我們預期這會對長期毛利率產生什麼樣的影響？

Sure. Go ahead, Zach.

當然。繼續吧，扎克。

Yes. The Shanghai factory has been a quite remarkable cost experience across all line items of COGS for the Model 3 there. We have talked a lot about the CapEx per unit of capacity being lower. But -- and you can basically run down an entire list of COGS between labor cost, material cost due to localization. So it's opening up suppliers that would not have made economic sense from the States. Localizing the supply chain flows into inbound logistics and outbound logistics costs as well. So we're not shipping cars from California over to China. And then that has a corresponding savings on our lower import-related costs.

是的。上海工廠在 Model 3 的所有 COGS 專案上都取得了相當顯著的成本經驗。我們已經多次討論過單位產能的資本支出是否較低。但是——你基本上可以列出由於本地化而產生的勞動力成本、材料成本等整個 COGS 清單。因此，它開放了那些在美國不具備經濟意義的供應商。供應鏈本地化也會影響入站物流和出站物流成本。所以我們不會將汽車從加州運往中國。這也相應降低了我們的進口相關成本。

And there's a slide in the shareholder letter that shows the layout comparison between our Fremont facility here in California and also the Model 3 factory in China. And the simplification in terms of the flow is pretty evident from that layout, and that cascades itself into all sorts of savings for the operations of the facility.

股東信中有一張幻燈片展示了我們位於加州弗里蒙特的工廠與中國 Model 3 工廠的佈局對比。從這個佈局來看，流程的簡化非常明顯，並且會為設施的運作帶來各種節省。

And so if you add all of this up, our internal estimates are a pretty significant reduction in the cost of Model 3 in China relative to Fremont. But I think it's also important to keep in mind that the cost of the Standard Plus that we're selling out of Shanghai is also lower than that of the similar car coming out of Fremont, from price perspective. And so -- and I've said this on previous earnings calls, I think it's fair to expect the margin coming out of the Shanghai facility to match the same margin for the vehicle in Fremont.

所以，如果把所有這些加起來，我們內部估計，中國生產的 Model 3 的成本相對於弗里蒙特的生產成本有相當大的降低。但我認為同樣重要的是要記住，從價格角度來看，我們在上海銷售的 Standard Plus 的成本也低於弗里蒙特生產的同類車型。所以——我在之前的收益電話會議上也說過，我認為可以合理地預期上海工廠的利潤率與弗里蒙特工廠的利潤率相符。

Yes. I think there's a pretty big fundamental efficiency gain that Tesla has by just making cars, especially affordable cars than 3 and Y, at least on the continent where the customers are. It kind of makes sense. But what we're doing -- or have been doing in the past was really pretty silly, making cars in California and then shipping them halfway around the world to Asia and Europe. And this created a lot of cost because you've got to ship those cars. So you've got a lot of finished goods sitting on order or waiting at the port or going through customs. You got tariffs, transport.

是的。我認為，特斯拉僅透過生產汽車，特別是比 3 和 Y 更實惠的汽車，就獲得了相當大的根本效率提升，至少在客戶所在的大陸是這樣。這很有道理。但我們現在所做的事情——或者過去所做的事情——確實非常愚蠢，在加州製造汽車，然後將它們運往地球另一端的亞洲和歐洲。這會產生很多成本，因為你必須運送這些汽車。因此，您有大量成品處於待訂購狀態或在港口等待或正在通關。您需要支付關稅和運輸費。

And then the factory complexity in California is very high because you've got different regulatory requirements in China, North America and Europe. So there are 3 different types of cars that are being built. It's very complex. And just having a factory in China or a factory in California or a factory in North America and a factory in Europe, just that alone, is a massive improvement in our fundamental operating efficiency. That, I think, is -- may not be fully appreciated.

而且加州工廠的複雜性非常高，因為中國、北美和歐洲的監管要求不同。因此，有 3 種不同類型的汽車正在製造中。這非常複雜。光是在中國、加州、北美和歐洲設立一家工廠，就能夠大幅提高我們的基本營運效率。我認為，這可能還沒有被充分認識到。

And also on working capital.

還有營運資金。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

Or reducing OpEx here, too, [to ultimately change].

或也減少這裡的營運支出，[最終實現改變]。

Okay. The next question from institutional investors is, "given the recent run in the share price, why not raise capital now and substantially accelerate the growth in production, i.e., build the Gigafactories, investment in Supercharger and customer service?"

好的。機構投資者的下一個問題是：“鑑於近期股價上漲，為什麼不現在籌集資金並大幅加快生產增長，即建設超級工廠、投資超級充電站和客戶服務？”

Well, we're actually spending money as quickly as we can spend it sensibly. So if there's any sensible way to spend money, we are spending it. There is no artificial holdback on expenditures. Anything that I see that is -- looks like it's got good value for money, the answer is yes, immediately. So we're spending money, I think, efficiently and we're not artificially limiting our progress. And then despite all that, we are still generating positive cash. So in light of that, it doesn't make sense to raise money because we expect to generate cash despite this growth level.

嗯，我們實際上是在盡可能合理地花錢。因此，如果有任何明智的花錢方式，我們就會花錢。沒有人為限制支出。我看到的任何東西——看起來都物有所值，答案是肯定的，立即。因此，我認為，我們花錢很有效率，而且不會人為地限制我們的進步。儘管如此，我們仍然在產生現金。因此，從這個角度來看，籌集資金是沒有意義的，因為儘管成長水準如此之高，我們仍希望產生現金。

Zach, I don't know if you want to...

札克，​​我不知道你是否想…

No. I completely agree with that. I think some of our learnings during the Model 3 launch period were we grew too quickly and with too much complexity, and it held back our ability to continue to scale. And part of the journey that we've been on in 2019 is to unwind a series of unintentional bad processes that kind of accumulated in the company over time. And so that's kind of what contributes to the reduction in OpEx over the year as we get smarter about that.

不。我完全同意這一點。我認為我們在 Model 3 發布期間得到的一些教訓是，我們發展得太快，太複雜，這阻礙了我們繼續擴大規模的能力。2019 年，我們所經歷的部分歷程就是要解決公司中隨著時間的推移而累積的一系列無意的不良流程。因此，隨著我們對此變得更加了解，這在某種程度上有助於減少全年的營運支出。

And now we've laid a good foundation, I think. And I agree with you on that, we're not holding back on the growth. I mean we have 2 products -- 2 vehicle products launching right now. And that will consume much of the bandwidth of the company to stabilize those over the course of the year. And then looking into next year, we have even more products launching, more factories. And so we want to be smart about how we spend money and grow in a way that's sustainable, so we don't fall victim to the mistakes, I think, we made 1.5 years or so ago.

我認為現在我們已經打下了良好的基礎。我同意你的觀點，我們不會阻礙成長。我的意思是我們現在有 2 款產品——2 款汽車產品推出。這將消耗公司大量的頻寬來在一年內穩定這些情況。展望明年，我們將推出更多產品，建立更多工廠。因此，我們要明智地花錢，並以可持續的方式成長，這樣我們就不會重蹈一年半前犯下的覆轍。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

Okay. The next question we've already answered regarding Autopilot time lines. So the following question would be, "can we please talk about cost control and OpEx sustainability in terms of growth versus gross profit growth? How did we achieve the recent OpEx trends? And how should we think about OpEx needs as we grow both vehicles and geographic workloads?"

好的。我們已經回答了有關自動駕駛時間線的下一個問題。因此，接下來的問題是，「我們能否從成長與毛利成長的角度來討論成本控制和營運支出的可持續性？我們是如何實現最近的營運支出趨勢的？隨著車輛和地理工作量的增加，我們應該如何考慮營運支出需求？ 」

Yes. I commented briefly on this in my opening remarks. We did see an increase in operating expenses from Q3 to Q4, even excluding the portion of that attributed to stock-based compensation. And when you double click into that growth, it's supporting the Model Y program and also Shanghai program as well.

是的。我在開場白中簡要地評論了這一點。即使不包括股票薪酬部分，我們確實看到第三季到第四季的營運費用增加。當你雙擊該增長時，它也會支援 Model Y 計劃以及上海計劃。

And so I think we, as a company, are now at the point where we've learned a lot on cost efficiency, as I've just mentioned. And we've unwound a number of the processes that were not in the right place, including automating with things that need to be automated. And we'll continue on that journey. But I think we're at a point now where OpEx will start to tick up, at least if you look annually from 2019 to 2020, to support our international footprint and then the growth of the company. Our job is to grow that significantly slower than the pace of growth of revenue to improve the operating leverage, which we're very, very focused on.

因此，我認為，作為一家公司，我們現在已經學到了很多關於成本效率的知識，正如我剛才所提到的。我們已經解開了許多不正確的流程，包括對需要自動化的事情進行自動化。我們將繼續這趟旅程。但我認為我們現在正處於營運支出將開始上升的階段，至少從 2019 年到 2020 年每年來看是這樣，以支持我們的國際影響力以及公司的成長。我們的工作是讓成長速度明顯低於收入成長速度，以提高營運槓桿，這是我們非常關注的。

Okay. And the last question from investors is, "the sales of model S and X have stayed flat for several quarters. The main reason is that they still use 18650 batteries. When will S and X use 2170 batteries? Manufacturing capacity of 18650 may be used for battery storage systems instead."

好的。而投資人的最後一個問題是，「Model S 和 X 的銷售已經連續幾季持平了。主要原因是他們還在使用18650電池。S和X什麼時候會用2170電池？18650的生產能力可能會被用於電池儲存系統。 」

Sure. Well, actually, the core chemistry inside the 18650 cell has improved many times over the years. So it's really just a form factor as opposed to a core technology. So it's -- I think we're pretty happy with where the -- with the energy content of the cell and the improvements in efficiency of the vehicle. We're rapidly approaching a 400-mile range for Model S, for example. So this is -- it won't be long before Model S is 400 -- has 400-mile range.

當然。事實上，18650 電池內部的核心化學性質多年來已經得到多次改進。因此，它實際上只是一種形式因素，而不是核心技術。所以，我認為我們對電池的能量含量和車輛效率的提高感到非常滿意。例如，我們正在快速實現 Model S 400 英里的續航里程目標。所以，不久之後，Model S 的續航里程就會達到 400 英里。

Drew, is there anything you want to add to that?

德魯，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. Other than to say that the 18650 lines have been running smoothly for a really long time in a world where cell supply is fueling growth like we're part of the fuel of growth. I don't see a reason to turn that cell supply off.

不。除此之外，在電池供應推動成長的世界中，18650 生產線已經平穩運行了很長時間，就像我們是成長燃料的一部分一樣。我認為沒有理由關閉電池電源。

Yes. And actually, the Model S and X actually have more range than we are just currently stating on the website. We just haven't gotten around to updating, the, I guess, the EPA certified number. But the actual range of the Model S and X are above what the website says there are.

是的。實際上，Model S 和 X 的續航里程比我們目前在網站上聲明的要長。我猜，我們只是還沒來得及更新 EPA 認證號碼。但 Model S 和 X 的實際續航里程高於網站上所述的範圍。

The existing cars.

現有的汽車。

Yes, the existing cars that are being made.

是的，正在製造的現有汽車。

It's actually been that way for some time.

事實上這種情況已經持續了一段時間了。

Yes. Yes. I think we're -- yes, it must be somewhere in the 380s or something like that for us, yes.

是的。是的。我認為我們是——是的，對我們來說一定是在 380 左右或類似的水平，是的。

Thank you very much. And Sherry, let's go to the Q&A on the phone.

非常感謝。雪莉，我們來進入電話問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Our first question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I actually agree. I think the retail questions were excellent, actually. So Elon, do you see potential for Tesla vehicles to be fitted with user terminals that are compatible with the Starlink constellation in the near- or medium-term future?

我其實同意。事實上，我認為零售問題非常精彩。那麼埃隆，您是否認為特斯拉汽車在近期或中期內有潛力安裝與 Starlink 星座相容的用戶終端？

Well, it's certainly something that could be happening in the coming years. There's no plans for it this year. The focus of Starlink is really for high-bandwidth, low-latency connectivity for homes and businesses, and I guess, aircraft and boats and that kind of thing. But the antenna for that high-bandwidth, low-latency thing is sort of about the size of medium pizza, which you could put on a car, but I think it's more bandwidth than you would really need. Technically, you could buy one and just stick it on the car. Yes, it will work. Space range.

嗯，這肯定會在未來幾年發生。今年沒有這個計劃。Starlink 的重點實際上是為家庭和企業提供高頻寬、低延遲的連接，我想，也包括飛機、船舶等等。但是，這種高頻寬、低延遲的天線大約有中等披薩那麼大，你可以把它放在汽車上，但我認為它的頻寬超過了你真正需要的。從技術上講，你可以買一個然後把它貼在車上。是的，它會起作用。太空範圍。

And maybe just as a follow-up for my follow-up. How would -- assuming that we get the antenna form factor and cost down to a point where that could be integrated to the roof of a car, for example, cost effectively and aerodynamically, et cetera, how would compatibility with the Starlink architecture theoretically improve the Tesla customer experience or the capability of the network?

或許只是作為我的後續行動的後續行動。假設我們將天線的尺寸和成本降低到可以整合到汽車車頂的程度，例如，成本效益和空氣動力學等等，那麼與 Starlink 架構的兼容性在理論上如何改善特斯拉客戶體驗或網路能力？

Well, I think it actually most possible that we'll just use the cellular connectivity, just use 5G. It would be the recommendation, certainly, in like any cities or something like that. But if you're out in the countryside and there's not good cell connectivity, then maybe you could connect with a Starlink antenna. And you don't need to like have like gigabit level or level of connectivity. You can -- probably like 20, 30 megabits is probably fine. And you can have much lower antenna.

嗯，我認為實際上最有可能的是我們只使用蜂窩連接，只使用 5G。當然，在任何城市或類似的地方，這都會是一個建議。但如果你在鄉村，那裡的手機訊號不太好，那麼你也許可以使用 Starlink 天線進行連線。而且您不需要擁有千兆等級或等級的連線。你可以——大概 20、30 兆位元就足夠了。而且你可以擁有更低的天線。

So yes, I guess it could be good for making sure there's connectivity and -- outside of major cities and that kind of thing. But I mean that's -- yes, I'm sort of, I'd say, relatively obtuse. It's not -- we're not thinking about it very much, to be honest.

所以是的，我認為這可以很好地確保大城市以外的連結性等等。但我的意思是——是的，我想說，我有點比較遲鈍。事實並非如此——說實話，我們並沒有考慮太多。

Our next question comes from Dan Galves with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Dan Galves。

So hoping you could give us some guidance on what CapEx is going to be this year. And kind of as I look to model out the business long term, is there a rule of thumb that we can use for capital expenditures per unit of production capacity or some sort of rule of thumb like that?

所以希望您能為我們提供一些有關今年資本支出的指導。當我著眼於長期業務建模時，是否有一條經驗法則可以用於計算每單位生產能力的資本支出或類似的經驗法則？

I don't know if we wanted to tell you -- I don't think we want to say what our CapEx is going to be this year, necessarily. We -- except to say that like as I said earlier, we're spending money as fast as we can spend money in sensible ways. So it's definitely not artificially limited, and we will spend -- well, a lot of money is here, for sure. The challenge comes in like finding efficient ways to actually deploy the capital. That's the harder part than sort of deciding on a CapEx number really.

我不知道我們是否想告訴你——我認為我們不一定想告訴你今年的資本支出是多少。我們——除了像我之前說的那樣，我們正在盡可能快地以合理的方式花錢。所以這絕對不會受到人為限制，而且我們肯定會花很多錢。挑戰在於如何找到有效的方式來實際部署資本。這實際上比決定資本支出數字更困難。

Yes. We...

是的。我們...

And I think we always find ways to become more CapEx efficient per unit of capacity. And we challenge the teams to always become more efficient. And so we see a reduction per CapEx -- per unit in terms of Capex.

我認為我們總是能找到提高單位產能資本支出效率的方法。我們要求團隊不斷提高效率。因此，我們看到每單位資本支出都有所減少。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

[Just on the right] metric.

[就在正確的] 指標上。

Yes, it's a good -- yes. I think there's so much at Tesla where the core technology is improving radically that maybe you wouldn't necessarily notice as an end customer. Or some of them, you'd notice; some of them, you wouldn't. But it's just -- there are these things that have a big effect on the efficiency of the company, like our internal applications team that kind of builds the Tesla internal operating system and improves the sort of core automation of the company. That makes a big difference to our productivity. But you wouldn't necessarily -- you would see it effectively in healthier financials, but you wouldn't necessarily notice it as an end customer.

是的，這很好——是的。我認為特斯拉的核心技術正在發生翻天覆地的變化，而作為最終客戶，你可能不會注意到這一點。或其中一些，你會注意到；有些你不會。但這些事情對公司的效率有很大的影響，例如我們的內部應用程式團隊建立了特斯拉內部作業系統並改善了公司的核心自動化。這對我們的生產力有很大影響。但你不一定會——你會在更健康的財務狀況中有效地看到它，但你不一定會作為最終客戶注意到它。

Okay. Got it. Maybe I could follow up. I mean your kind of operating cash flow, EBITDA is annualizing at $4.5 billion right now. As I look out to the future, I'm kind of guessing that, that could fund somewhere around 200,000 to 250,000 units of capacity a year, which would be maybe a 30% CAGR over 5 years. I mean is that something that's feasible for you guys to execute on, on a consistent basis, a level of capacity building that large?

好的。知道了。也許我可以跟進。我的意思是，你的經營現金流，EBITDA 目前年化為 45 億美元。展望未來，我猜測，這可以為每年約 20 萬至 25 萬台的產能提供資金，這在 5 年內可能達到 30% 的複合年增長率。我的意思是，你們是否可以持續地執行如此大規模的能力建構？

I mean, I think...

我的意思是，我認為...

We're heading for more than 30%, yes.

是的，我們的目標將超過 30%。

Yes, I think the math -- I'm not sure of the math that you've done, but I think our internal plans are faster. And just back on your first question, we will have additional detail on CapEx in the 10-K. But back to the growth rate, I mean, one thing to keep in mind is that the Shanghai facility, we do have a loan facility in place to support that growth. So that helps. And then as our production volumes increase, that generates more cash flow in the business as well that allows us to continue to fund additional factory. So I wouldn't necessarily view it as limited as you described it.

是的，我認為數學——我不確定你做的數學計算，但我認為我們的內部計劃更快。回到您的第一個問題，我們將在 10-K 中提供有關資本支出的更多詳細資訊。但回到成長率，我的意思是，要記住的一件事是，上海設施，我們確實有貸款設施來支持這種成長。這很有幫助。隨著產量的增加，業務中也會產生更多的現金流，這使我們能夠繼續為額外的工廠提供資金。所以我不一定會認為它像你所描述的那樣有限。

Yes. I think a few years ago, I said I -- yes, I think -- I don't know when it was, but a few years ago, I said my estimate for us is that Tesla would grow at an average compound annual rate -- average rate of in excess of 50%. I still hold that belief.

是的。我想幾年前，我說過——是的，我想——我不知道是什麼時候，但幾年前，我說過我估計特斯拉的平均複合年增長率將超過 50%。我仍然堅信這一點。

Our next question from Gene Munster with Loup Ventures.

下一個問題來自 Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster。

Congratulations on the progress. First question related to Cybertruck. You mentioned you'll sell as many as you can make. Can you remind me how many you think you can make? And any thoughts on the cost of production for making those Cybertrucks?

恭喜你取得進展。第一個問題與 Cyber​​truck 有關。您提到您會賣出盡可能多的產品。你可以提醒我一下你認為你能做多少嗎？您對生產 Cyber​​trucks 的成本有何看法？

I think we don't comment on those detailed numbers, except the demand is just far more than we could reasonably make in the space of, I don't know, 3 or 4 years or something like that. So the thing we're going to be really focused on is increasing battery production capacity because that's very fundamental because if you don't improve battery production capacity, then you end up just shifting unit volume from one product to another, and you haven't actually produced more electric vehicles.

我認為我們不會對這些詳細數字發表評論，但需求量遠遠超出了我們在 3 年或 4 年或類似時間內合理生產的能力。因此，我們真正要關注的是提高電池生產能力，因為這是非常根本的，因為如果不提高電池生產能力，那麼最終只是將單位產量從一種產品轉移到另一種產品，而實際上並沒有生產更多的電動車。

So that's part of the reason why we have not, for example, really accelerated production of the Tesla Semi because it does use a lot of cells. And unless we've got a lot of battery cells available, then say like accelerated production of the Tesla Semi would then necessarily mean making fewer Model 3 or Model Y cars. So we've got to really make sure we get a very steep ramp in battery production and continue to improve the cost per kilowatt hour of the batteries. This is very fundamental and extremely difficult.

這就是為什麼我們沒有真正加速特斯拉 Semi 的生產的原因之一，因為它確實使用了很多電池。除非我們有大量可用的電池單元，否則像特斯拉 Semi 這樣的加速生產就必然意味著生產更少的 Model 3 或 Model Y 汽車。因此，我們必須確保電池產量大幅提升，並持續降低電池每度電的成本。這是非常基礎且極其困難的。

So I said we're going to do like kind of Battery Day just to kind of explain more about this and what our plans are. I think probably it's going to make sense to do that after the end of this quarter because I think it's going to be kind of an intense end of quarter as it was last quarter. So tentatively, sort of in the April time frame, we'll do a Battery Day and kind of go through what the challenges are, how do you get from here to, I don't know, a couple of thousand gigawatt hours a year or something.

所以我說我們要舉辦類似電池日的活動，只是為了進一步解釋這一點以及我們的計劃。我認為在本季結束後這樣做可能是有意義的，因為我認為本季末的工作將會像上個季度一樣緊張。因此，我們暫時會在四月舉辦一次電池日活動，討論一下面臨的挑戰，以及如何從現在開始實現每年幾千吉瓦時的產量目標。

Great. I look forward to that Battery Day. You also mentioned in your prepared comments about other products that may come up, and the only vehicle not announced for master plan part 2 is a high passenger density vehicle. Any light that you can give us regarding that project?

偉大的。我期待著電池日的到來。您還在準備好的評論中提到了可能出現的其他產品，而總體規劃第 2 部分中唯一未公佈的車輛是高乘客密度車輛。您能給我們提供關於該項目的任何資訊嗎？

Yes. Going back to what I just said, the -- we've got to improve the total battery capacity. Otherwise, we add complexity, but we do not improve the number of vehicles on the road. So while we do some sort of high-capacity vehicle at some point probably, but we need to make sure we got the batteries to make cars that we've already got already on our plate. And it's just generally true.

是的。回到我剛才所說的，我們必須提高電池的總容量。否則，我們增加了複雜性，但不會增加道路上的車輛數量。因此，雖然我們可能在某個時候會生產某種高容量汽車，但我們需要確保我們擁有製造現有汽車所需的電池。這通常是正確的。

And I've seen some, I think, sort of sensible comments by ARK Invest where they're pointing out that really people do prefer to drive in their cars mostly by themselves. And like the average -- I mean the average number of occupants in a car, I think, is like 1.2. And maybe with autonomy, maybe they'll go to 1.4, maybe. But I'm not sure if it even goes there.

我認為我看到了 ARK Invest 的一些明智評論，他們指出人們確實更喜歡自己開車。平均而言——我的意思是，我認為一輛車的平均乘客人數是 1.2 人。也許有了自主權，也許他們會達到 1.4，也許。但我不確定它是否會到達那裡。

So yes, will it make sense for us to do sort of a minivan or sort of Sprinter-like van at some point? Probably. But like I said, we've got to solve this battery -- we've got to scale battery production to crazy levels that people cannot even fathom today. That's the real problem.

那麼，對我們來說，在某個時候推出一款小型貨車或類似 Sprinter 的貨車是否有意義呢？大概。但就像我說的，我們必須解決電池問題——我們必須將電池產量擴大到人們今天無法想像的瘋狂水平。這才是真正的問題。

Our next question comes from [John Sager] with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 [John Sager]。

I want to talk about the differences between the Model 3 and the Model Y beyond the sort of 10% rule of thumb just around cargo and size. Are there other features that are going to differentiate the 2 models? And then as a follow-on to that, you've talked in the past about how Model S sales grew with the introduction of Model X. So are you planning on setting up your production facilities to align with that thesis that essentially Model 3 sales will expand alongside the introduction of Model Y?

我想談談 Model 3 和 Model Y 之間的差異，而不僅僅是關於貨物和尺寸的 10% 經驗法則。還有其他特徵可以區分這兩種型號嗎？然後作為後續，您過去曾談到 Model S 的銷量如何隨著 Model X 的推出而成長。那麼，您是否計劃設置生產設施以符合這一論點，即 Model 3 的銷量基本上會隨著 Model Y 的推出而擴大？

We're not quite sure what's going to happen, but it is true that Model X -- the introduction of Model X actually increased Model S sales because people would come in and look at the Model X and they like said, "okay, I prefer the sedan." And we're worried that X sales would cause S sales to drop but it actually caused it to increase. So from -- like I said, we're not too worried about demand. We're worried about production, make sure we get that production ramp going and reach volume production as soon as possible with Model Y.

我們不太確定會發生什麼，但事實是，Model X 的推出實際上增加了 Model S 的銷量，因為人們會進來看看 Model X，然後說，「好吧，我更喜歡轎車。」我們擔心 X 銷量會導致 S 銷量下降，但實際上它導致 S 銷量上升。所以——就像我說的，我們並不太擔心需求。我們擔心生產問題，確保盡快實現產量提升並儘快實現 Model Y 的量產。

And it's hard to -- it's always hard to predict what that S -- the exponential part of the S-curve of production. Our production pretty much always follows this S-curve, or it's kind of like a herky jerky S-curve. And you can -- it's easy to predict what it's going to be like in beginning because it's low, and it's easy to predict what it's going to be like at the end, but that intermediate portion of the S-curve is very difficult to predict. So that's -- and it involves a massive amount of hard work and just reacting fast to issues that arise.

而且很難——總是很難預測生產 S 曲線的指數部分是什麼。我們的生產幾乎總是遵循這個 S 曲線，或有點像是不穩定的 S 曲線。而且你可以——很容易預測它在開始時會是什麼樣子，因為它很低，也很容易預測它在結束時會是什麼樣子，但是 S 曲線的中間部分很難預測。所以這需要大量的努力，並且要對出現的問題做出快速反應。

So yes, I think we'll just go as fast as we can with Model Y and make sure it's a great product. I think there are some things that will differentiate it but not -- it's not something we want to talk about on this call. And I think when they do -- when people do a teardown of the Model Y, I think they'll be impressed about some of the things they see.

所以是的，我認為我們會盡快推出 Model Y，並確保它是一款出色的產品。我認為有些事情會有所不同，但這不是我們想在這次電話會議上討論的事情。我認為當人們拆解 Model Y 時，他們會對所看到的某些東西印象深刻。

And just to add to that, I think it's important to keep the Model Y launch in context of the next 18 to 24 months. What we're working on here between Berlin and Shanghai and Fremont is to have 3 and Y locally produced in all locations. And so Model 3 is expanding as Model Y is expanding. There may be ups and downs in various factories as we get to the journey of having these products on the major continents.

補充一點，我認為將 Model Y 的發布放在未來 18 到 24 個月的背景下推出非常重要。我們在柏林、上海和弗里蒙特之間的合作目標是在所有地點實現 3 和 Y 的本地生產。因此，隨著 Model Y 的擴張，Model 3 也在擴張。在將這些產品運往各大洲的過程中，各個工廠可能會遇到一些起伏。

Also, the rule of thumb of 10%, I think you need to see it. When you see the car, you'll realize that it's not just a 10% different car. It's not just -- there's more change happening, like to the customer's perspective as well.

此外，我認為你需要看看 10% 的經驗法則。當你看到這輛車時，你會意識到它不僅僅是一輛有 10% 不同的車。這不僅僅是——還有更多的變化正在發生，例如客戶的觀點也是如此。

Our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的科林·拉什。

Can you speak to the pricing strategy in light of the China price reductions as well as the mission to increase EV adoption? Is there a target for gross profit or operating profit on a per vehicle basis that we should be thinking about? Or how should we really frame that for ourselves?

您能否結合中國降價以及增加電動車普及率的使命談談定價策略？我們是否應該考慮每輛車的毛利或營業利潤目標？或者我們究竟該如何為自己建構這個框架？

Yes. I mean we were trying to make the cars as affordable as possible and as fast as possible while maintaining reasonable -- while still being at least a little bit profitable and grow the company like crazy and having good free cash flow and accumulating our cash balance.

是的。我的意思是，我們試圖讓汽車盡可能便宜、盡可能快地生產，同時保持合理的價格——同時仍然保持至少一點盈利，讓公司瘋狂增長，擁有良好的自由現金流並積累我們的現金餘額。

Zach, anything you want to add?

札克，​​你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's fair. Our order rate supports the pricing that we have right now. We're working very hard to reduce costs and expand production because, I mean, we feel from the data, it's pretty clear that there's a lot of interest in our products. And so what we're working on is to increase production, increase availability of the products with time. And the price reduction in China, kind of the first step towards this global localization, more accessible price. And we'll continue to work on cost reductions in China as we do in Fremont and grow production.

不，我認為這很公平。我們的訂單率支持我們目前的定價。我們正在努力降低成本並擴大生產，因為從數據來看，我們感覺很明顯大家對我們的產品很感興趣。因此，我們正在努力提高產量，隨著時間的推移提高產品的可用性。中國市場的降價是邁向全球在地化、讓價格更親民的第一步。我們將繼續致力於降低中國的成本，就像我們在弗里蒙特所做的那樣，並提高產量。

Yes. I mean the thing that's really going to, I think, probably just have a profound effect on our financials is like -- is high volume and high margin, obviously. And that high margin part comes from autonomy. So do people buy the Full Self-Driving package or not and do they buy it worldwide or only in certain places? For example, our autonomy is not as good in China as it is in the U.S. So fewer people -- a very small percentage of people buy the FSD package in China.

是的。我的意思是，我認為真正可能對我們的財務狀況產生深遠影響的是——顯然是高銷量和高利潤率。而高利潤部分則是來自於自主權。那麼人們是否會購買全自動駕駛套件呢？他們是在全球範圍內購買還是只在某些地方購買？例如，我們的自主性在中國不如在美國好。因此，在中國，只有很少一部分人——很小一部分人——購買 FSD 套件。

But as we fix that, then we will see a much higher people -- percentage of people buying. And as we are close to Full Self-Driving, that's just going to become more and more compelling. So that's -- from a financial standpoint, that's the real mind-blowing situation, is high volume, high margin because of autonomy.

但當我們解決這個問題時，我們就會看到購買人數的比例大大提高。隨著我們越來越接近完全自動駕駛，這一點將變得越來越引人注目。所以，從財務角度來看，這才是真正令人興奮的情況，因為自主性而實現了高產量、高利潤。

Okay. And then just shorter term, there's significant discussion in the industry around moving to higher voltage on the powertrain and then some challenges around the supply chain's preparedness to support that. Separate from the battery pack, since we'll talk about that in a couple of months, can you speak to the areas of focus on powertrain technology-driven cost reduction over the next 12 to 24 months that we should be thinking about?

好的。短期來看，業界正在就動力系統轉向更高電壓進行大量討論，並討論供應鏈對此的準備情況面臨的一些挑戰。除了電池組之外，由於我們將在幾個月後討論這個問題，您能否談談未來 12 到 24 個月內我們應該考慮的動力總成技術驅動的成本降低的重點領域？

Well, our powertrain is pretty damn good. I mean it's way better than anything else out there by a country mile. It's worth noting, for example, that the Model S has like a 100 kilowatt hour pack, but Taycan has 100 -- like 95 kilowatt hour pack. The Model S is steadily approaching 400 miles range, but Taycan has 200 miles range. So we must be using that energy pretty efficiently and the powertrain is a big part of that.

嗯，我們的動力系統非常好。我的意思是它比其他任何東西都好得多。例如，值得注意的是，Model S 擁有約 100 千瓦時的電池組，而 Taycan 則擁有 100（約 95 千瓦時的電池組）。Model S 的續航里程正在穩定接近 400 英里，但 Taycan 的續航里程為 200 英里。因此，我們必須非常有效率地利用能源，而動力系統是其中很重要的一部分。

I would just say the focus is on cost on the powertrain. When we're thinking about technology innovations, it's how do we how do we continue to drive the cost down. And that's through -- voltage is maybe one angle, but there are certainly others that just enable more power density and lower cost.

我只想說重點是動力系統的成本。當我們考慮技術創新時，我們考慮的是如何繼續降低成本。這就是說——電壓可能是一個角度，但肯定還有其他角度可以實現更高的功率密度和更低的成本。

Powertrain is like mind-blowing, I think. Yes. Coming out later this year, end of the year, probably. It's our goal. Get the powertrain out by the end of the year. And then it's going to be like -- this is like alien technology. It's insane.

我認為動力系統令人驚嘆。是的。可能會在今年晚些時候，或者在年底推出。這是我們的目標。年底前推出動力系統。然後它就會像——這就像外星技術。這太瘋狂了。

It's all about...

一切都是關於...

I didn't even think we could do -- yes, I mean honestly, I thought there was no way. I guess we got the engineering team. Tesla is about hardcore engineering.

我什至不認為我們可以做到——是的，老實說，我認為沒有辦法。我想我們找到了工程團隊。特斯拉注重硬核心工程。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So in your slide deck, you had the comment around average selling price being stable or thereabout in 2020. Can you maybe walk through some of the puts and takes, how you see sort of like that metric evolves? Obviously, you have the Model Y, which probably would have initial higher pricing, and then the China Model 3 is at a lower price. So I guess what are the puts and takes for what you see as sort of like stable ASP in 2020?

因此，在您的幻燈片中，您提到了 2020 年平均售價將保持穩定或大致穩定。您能否介紹其中的一些因素，您如何看待該指標的演變？顯然，Model Y 的初始定價可能較高，而中國版 Model 3 的價格較低。那麼，您認為 2020 年 ASP 的穩定性需要哪些條件呢？

I think the product is better and better. That will increase the value.

我認為產品越來越好了。這將增加價值。

Yes. We don't want to really comment on prices and such. I think we'll adjust according to what the demand looks like. I mean, like right now, it's pretty good. Maybe that will change. Who knows? Yes.

是的。我們不想真正評論價格等問題。我認為我們會根據需求情況進行調整。我的意思是，就像現在一樣，它非常好。也許這種情況會改變。誰知道呢？是的。

But I think the way you described it is fair. So I mean relative to the current Model 3, China Model 3 pricing is slightly lower. And our Model Y pricing is public on the website, so you can see that it's clearly slightly higher than the Model 3 that's out of Fremont. How the mix of those 3 products, and that's out over the course of the year, we'll see. But I think it's probably fair at the moment to assume the mix of those is fairly stable in terms of ASP when you average them together.

但我認為你描述的方式是公平的。所以我的意思是相對於目前的 Model 3，中國版 Model 3 的定價略低一些。我們的 Model Y 定價在網站上是公開的，所以你可以看到它明顯比弗里蒙特生產的 Model 3 略高一些。我們將拭目以待這三種產品的組合狀況以及今年的銷售情況。但我認為，就目前情況而言，假設這些價格的平均組合在 ASP 方面是相當穩定的，這可能是公平的。

Yes. I mean the affordability of our car in China improved radically because of very -- tariffs mostly gone away, purchase tax exemption, local product supply, not having to spend a bunch of money to transport it over the ocean. So the affordability is night and day for our car in China.

是的。我的意思是，由於關稅基本上取消、購置稅豁免、本地產品供應、無需花費大量資金將其運輸到海外，我們的汽車在中國的可負擔性得到了大幅提高。因此，我們的汽車在中國的售價與國內有天壤之別。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

Just want to follow-up on the question on capital raise. So given the cheaper cost of capital, and this is a real competitive advantage for others, why wouldn't it make sense to raise capital to either pay down debt or to pursue acquisitions, especially bolt-ons that could help you accelerate capabilities in autonomous or battery technology?

只是想跟進有關籌集資金的問題。因此，考慮到較低的資本成本，這對其他公司來說是一個真正的競爭優勢，為什麼籌集資金來償還債務或進行收購（尤其是可以幫助您加速自動駕駛或電池技術能力的額外收購）是不合理的？

I mean, if you know of any acquisitions, we'd love to hear about them. Yes, sure. It sounds great. Who should we acquire?

我的意思是，如果您知道任何收購消息，我們很樂意聽到。是的，當然。聽起來很棒。我們該收購誰？

Well, given the importance of autonomous, I imagine that this is an area that you would want to accelerate if you view it as a crucial competitive advantage.

好吧，考慮到自主的重要性，我想如果您將其視為關鍵的競爭優勢，那麼您會希望加速這一領域的發展。

We're not aware of any one that we'd want to acquire.

我們不知道我們想要收購哪一家公司。

And debt paydown?

並償還債務？

Diluting the company to pay down debt doesn't sound like a wise move.

透過稀釋公司股權來償還債務聽起來並不是一個明智之舉。

I think the broader -- there's been a couple of versions of this question over the course of the call. I think what we're saying more broadly is that as we look forward on the cash generation from the business relative to what our plans are, we are not constrained.

我認為更廣泛地說——在通話過程中，這個問題出現了幾個版本。我認為，更廣泛地說，當我們展望業務相對於我們的計劃產生的現金時，我們不會受到限制。

Yes, we're going to pay down the debt, just as time goes by. We've paid down $0.5 billion worth of debt last quarter. So we'll just keep steadily paying it down. And yes -- so yes. Yes. I don't think we have anything more to say on that front really.

是的，隨著時間的推移，我們會償還債務。上個季度我們已經償還了價值 5 億美元的債務。因此，我們將繼續穩步償還債務。是的——是的。是的。我認為我們在這方面確實沒有什麼好說的了。

Our next question comes from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Elon, I wanted to come back on batteries. And if I look at the end of this year, you should have 800,000 units in production capacity forecast. So that's -- if you add to that Model S and Model X and then the energy storage business, it means you've been following north of 60 gigawatt hour of battery production capacity. So where do you stand now? And how do you get there? And then it looks like your competitors, others who would like to compete with you, seem to be struggling to grow battery capacity. So if you can just take us through what you're doing differently, why you're confident you can do that and it looks like nobody has done.

伊隆，我想用電池回來。如果我看一下今年年底的情況，預計產能將達到 80 萬台。所以——如果你加上 Model S 和 Model X，再加上能源儲存業務，就代表你已經追蹤了 60 千兆瓦時的電池生產能力。那你現在的立場是什麼？那你怎麼去那裡呢？然後看起來你的競爭對手，其他想與你競爭的人，似乎正在努力增加電池容量。因此，您能否向我們介紹一下您所做的事情有何不同，為什麼您有信心可以做到這一點，而且看起來似乎還沒有人做過。

Well, I guess a lot of people sort of made fun of us for not like being able to build cars and build capacity. And it's like now it turns out, actually, even the pros have trouble with it. It's pretty hard. But the fact is, we've already demonstrated massive growth in cell production capacity at our Gigafactory in Nevada. And you have to go from the cells to the modules to the pack. So it's not just cell capacity but also module and pack capacity. So we've just gotten pretty good at that.

嗯，我想很多人會嘲笑我們，因為我們不能製造汽車和建設產能。而現在事實證明，事實上，即使是專業人士也會遇到這個問題。這相當困難。但事實是，我們已經證明了內華達州超級工廠的電池生產能力的大幅成長。你必須從電池到模組再到電池組。因此，這不僅僅是電池容量，還有模組和電池組容量。所以我們在這方面已經做得相當好了。

And we've worked well with key partners, like Panasonic. The Panasonic relationship has been excellent. They've been a great partner with us for many years. We've added some additional partners at a smaller scale with LG and CATL.

我們與松下等主要合作夥伴保持良好的合作。我司與松下的關係一直都非常好。多年來，他們一直是我們優秀的合作夥伴。我們增加了一些小規模的合作夥伴，包括 LG 和 CATL。

And yes, we'll have more to talk about this in detail on Battery Day. Like I said, probably April. We've got a very compelling strategy. I mean we are super deep on cell, super deep, cell through battery, so cell module battery.

是的，我們將在電池日上更詳細地討論這個問題。就像我說的，可能是四月。我們有一個非常引人注目的策略。我的意思是，我們對電池、電池直通電池以及電池模組電池的研究非常深入。

And Drew, is there anything you want add to that?

德魯，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think you said it all.

我想你已經說完了。

We are super deep.

我們非常有深度。

Yes, it's a (inaudible).

是的，這是一個（聽不清楚）。

Rabbit hole goes down pretty far.

兔子洞往下挖得相當深。

Seven days a week.

一周七天。

Seven days a week battery production. Man, do we know a lot about batteries. Geez.

每週七天生產電池。夥計，我們對電池了解很多嗎？哎呀。

I think I can see that. The only thing I would add is we do have a decade-plus of experience of not just like what a cell should be but how to integrate it into the product, and that's really helped us.

我想我明白了。我唯一想補充的是，我們確實擁有十多年的經驗，不僅知道電池應該是什麼樣子，還知道如何將其整合到產品中，這確實對我們有幫助。

Yes, absolutely. And how to manage the cell and the module and the battery and through different weather conditions and different terminal and different charge regimes. And wow, we really know a lot about batteries. Next level.

是的，絕對是。以及如何在不同的天氣條件、不同的終端和不同的充電制度下管理電池、模組和電池組。哇，我們確實對電池了解很多。下一級。

Okay. And Zach, maybe a quick mundane follow-up for you, if that's all right. Can you give us a sense of the impact of the ramp of Shanghai on your cars in Q4?

好的。扎克，如果可以的話，我可以快速跟進你的情況。您能否向我們介紹上海的升級對您第四季的汽車的影響？

Yes. We were negative gross margin on the products that we built in Q4. But the team in China, I think, did a great job managing costs during the launch. And so there was a slight drag associated with it, but not terribly significant.

是的。我們第四季生產的產品的毛利率為負。但我認為，中國團隊在發布期間的成本管理方面做得很好。因此，雖然存在輕微的阻力，但並不十分嚴重。

Our last question will come from Joseph Osha with JMP Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Joseph Osha。

Further to the conversation around cell technology, just wondering if you can comment on what the plans are for the Maxwell technology that you acquired here as a capacitor or dry cell or what have you.

關於電池技術的進一步討論，我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下您在這裡獲得的麥克斯韋技術作為電容器或乾電池或其他什麼的計劃。

Well, like I said, we're going to talk about this in Battery Day, which is probably April. And then a lot of these questions will be answered. I think it's going to be a very compelling story that we have to present. I think it's going to actually blow people's minds. It blows my mind, and I know it. So I think it's going to be pretty cool.

好吧，就像我說的，我們將在電池日（可能是四月）上討論這個問題。然後很多這些問題就會得到解答。我認為我們要呈現的將會是一個非常引人入勝的故事。我認為這確實會讓人們大吃一驚。這讓我大吃一驚，我知道這一點。所以我認為這會很酷。

Maxwell's -- that ultracap technology is kind of part of the plan?

麥克斯韋的——超級電容技術是該計劃的一部分嗎？

It's an important piece of the puzzle, yes. I think like some of the sort of retail investors have managed to put together several pieces of the puzzle, they seem to have the most insight.

是的，這是拼圖中的重要部分。我認為，一些散戶投資者已經成功地將拼圖碎片拼湊在一起，他們似乎擁有最深刻的洞察力。

I shall have to read the blogs more.

我必須多讀一些部落格。

Thank you very much for -- everyone, for all of your good questions, and we will speak to you in another 3 months. Thank you.

非常感謝大家提出的所有好問題，我們將在 3 個月後與你們交談。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。