特斯拉 (TSLA) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by our CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn, and our Senior VP, Drew Baglino, as well as other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

各位下午好，歡迎參加特斯拉2021年第三季問答網路直播。我是投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha，今天與我一起出席的還有我們的財務長 Zachary Kirkhorn、資深副總裁 Drew Baglino 以及其他高階主管。我們的第三季業績報告於下午3點左右公佈。我們在與本次網路直播相同的連結中發布了更新文件，其中顯示的是中部時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions)

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並發表前瞻性聲明。這些評論是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能與預期有重大差異，包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些風險和不確定因素。（操作說明）

But before we jump into the Q&A, Zach has some opening remarks. Zach?

但在進入問答環節之前，札克先有一些開場白。扎克？

Yes. Thanks, Martin. We're continuing to make great progress as a company, setting new records on each of the most important financial metrics for Q3. Overall, we delivered just over 240,000 cars, 20% higher than last quarter and 70% higher than the same quarter last year. We were also able to achieve an annualized production run rate of over 1 million cars towards the end of the quarter.

是的。謝謝你，馬丁。公司持續取得巨大進步，第三季各項最重要的財務指標均創下新紀錄。總體而言，我們交付了超過 24 萬輛汽車，比上一季成長了 20%，比去年同期成長了 70%。到本季末，我們也實現了年化生產運行率超過 100 萬輛的目標。

The increase in production rate has primarily been driven by further ramping of the Model Y at our Shanghai factory. Additionally, we have made great progress increasing production volumes of Model S and have recently started the ramp and deliveries of Model X. It will take a bit more time to get this program back to prior volumes, but based on demand, we are targeting to exceed historical production levels. We have also completed the transition of our Shanghai factory as our main export hub. This has enabled us to supply more vehicles to the North America market and to introduce Model Y to Europe.

產量提升主要得益於上海工廠Model Y的進一步增產。此外，我們在提升Model S的產量方面取得了顯著進展，並且最近也開始逐步增加Model X的產量並交付。雖然Model X的產量恢復到先前的水準還需要一些時間，但根據市場需求，我們的目標是超越歷史產量水準。我們已經完成了上海工廠作為主要出口中心的轉型。這使我們能夠向北美市場供應更多車輛，並將 Model Y 引入歐洲。

Due to part shortages and logistics variability, we have not been able to run our factories at full capacity. It's important to note that while we have roughly doubled deliveries year-to-date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve. I want to thank our supply chain team for their incredible work and our production teams for showing impressive flexibility as we make adjustments real-time. This team's expertise in the chip industry across all tiers has made a huge difference when managing through these challenges. Additionally, we never reduced our production forecast with our suppliers as we're adding capacity as quickly as possible. I also want to thank our suppliers for their dedication and partnership to Tesla.

由於零件短缺和物流不穩定，我們一直無法讓工廠滿載運轉。值得注意的是，雖然我們今年的交貨量已經大致翻了一番，但這實現卻異常困難。我要感謝我們的供應鏈團隊所做的出色工作，以及我們的生產團隊在即時調整過程中展現出的令人印象深刻的靈活性。該團隊在晶片行業各個層面的專業知識，在應對這些挑戰時發揮了巨大的作用。此外，我們從未下調供應商的生產預測，因為我們正在以最快的速度增加產能。我還要感謝我們的供應商對特斯拉的奉獻和合作。

Despite these increases in production and generally higher prices, our backlogs are continuing to grow and average customer wait times are extending. The only practical way to address this in the immediate term is to do everything we can to build more cars on our existing production lines, which is where we are focused.

儘管產量增加且價格普遍上漲，但我們的積壓訂單仍在持續成長，客戶平均等待時間也延長。短期內解決這個問題的唯一切實可行的辦法就是盡一切努力在我們現有的生產線上生產更多的汽車，這也是我們目前的工作重點。

Similar dynamics are also playing out on our storage business as we are working to expand Powerwall and Megapack production as quickly as parts and cells allow us to do so. Additionally, we have made good progress on the in-house battery manufacturing program, and we're excited to have expanded the full self-driving beta program to more customers.

類似的動態也發生在我們的儲存業務中，我們正在努力擴大 Powerwall 和 Megapack 的生產，只要零件和電池供應允許，我們就能盡快實現這一目標。此外，我們在自主電池製造專案方面取得了良好進展，我們很高興能夠將全自動駕駛測試版專案擴展到更多客戶。

Financially, our auto gross margins reached 30.5% on a GAAP basis and just under 29% excluding regulatory credits, which is our strongest yet. This benefit primarily comes from higher volumes particularly out of the Shanghai factory, increased mix of the Model Y as we -- and we have made good progress increasing Model S volumes. The Model S has now returned to positive gross margin, and we expect this to increase with higher production and the ramp of Model X.

從財務角度來看，我們汽車業務的毛利率以 GAAP 計算達到 30.5%，不計監管稅收抵免則略低於 29%，這是我們迄今為止最高的毛利率。這項優勢主要來自上海工廠產量的提高，以及Model Y車型的比例增加——而且我們在提高Model S車型產量方面也取得了良好進展。Model S 目前已恢復正毛利率，我們預計隨著產量增加和 Model X 的量產，毛利率還會上升。

As was the case in Q2, there was some net benefit from pricing actions. However, this remains small in the context of other contributors. Please keep in mind that given backlog, it will take time for the impact of recent changes to flow through our financials. Note that we are also not yet recognizing additional revenue from the FSD beta program. Supply chain challenges, including expedites, continue to provide cost headwinds as was also the case with FX this quarter. While we are seeing an impact from the rise in commodity and labor costs, we have also been adjusting pricing, which should help to compensate.

與第二季的情況一樣，價格策略帶來了一些淨收益。然而，與其他貢獻者相比，這仍然很小。請注意，由於積壓工作較多，近期變化的影響需要一段時間才能反映我們的財務狀況。請注意，我們目前尚未從 FSD 測試版計劃中確認額外收入。供應鏈挑戰（包括加急訂單）持續對成本造成不利影響，本季外匯市場的情況也是如此。雖然商品和勞動成本上漲對我們造成了一定影響，但我們也一直在調整價格，這應該有助於彌補損失。

Overall, as I mentioned in our last call, our P&L continues to benefit from the marginal profitability of each incremental unit with higher fixed cost absorption. As a result of the great progress on margins, volume and appropriate management of overhead costs, we were able to achieve an operating margin of just under 15%, exceeding the long-term guidance we've laid out previously.

總的來說，正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們的損益表繼續受益於每個新增單位的邊際獲利能力提高，固定成本吸收率也更高。由於在利潤率、銷售和適當的間接成本管理方面取得了巨大進步，我們實現了略低於 15% 的營業利潤率，超過了我們先前製定的長期指導目標。

On cash, we generated record operating cash flows of $3.1 billion and continue to invest heavily in the build-out of manufacturing, supercharging and service capacity. We also continue to retire high-interest-rate debt, including the early settlement of our 2025 senior notes of $1.8 billion during the quarter.

在現金方面，我們創造了創紀錄的 31 億美元經營現金流，並繼續大力投資製造、增壓和服務能力的建設。我們也繼續償還高利率債務，包括在本季提前結算了 2025 年到期的 18 億美元優先票據。

As we look forward, we are clearly quite a bit ahead of the pacing required to achieve our target annual growth rate of 50% this year. Q4 production will depend heavily on availability of parts, but we are driving for continued growth. We are also nearing assembly of our first production cars in Austin and Berlin. It's important to stress, while the first production car is an important milestone, the hardest work lies ahead in the ramp. Please keep in mind that we are pushing the boundaries on new product and manufacturing technologies at these factories, which makes it difficult to predict the exact pace of the ramp. These factories will also partially weigh on our margins as we work towards volume production.

展望未來，我們顯然已經遠遠領先於實現今年50%年增長率目標所需的速度。第四季產量將很大程度上取決於零件的供應情況，但我們正在努力實現持續成長。我們在奧斯汀和柏林的首批量產車也即將組裝完成。需要強調的是，雖然第一輛量產車是一個重要的里程碑，但最艱難的工作還在後面的坡道上。請記住，我們正在這些工廠中不斷突破新產品和製造技術的界限，因此很難預測確切的產能爬坡速度。隨著我們逐步實現大量生產，這些工廠也會對我們的利潤率造成一定影響。

Overall, I'm very proud of what the team has accomplished and I'm excited for our next phase of growth into Q4 and into 2022. The team has done a tremendous job improving our financial health in a short period of time while also continuing to improve our precision and pace of execution. Thank you.

總的來說，我對團隊的成就感到非常自豪，並對我們進入第四季和 2022 年的下一個成長階段感到興奮。團隊在短時間內出色地改善了我們的財務狀況，同時不斷提高執行的精準度和速度。謝謝。

Thank you very much. And we will now take questions from institutional and retail shareholders that we posted on our website.

非常感謝。接下來，我們將回答機構股東和散戶股東在我們網站上提出的問題。

The first question is, when should we expect the first vehicles to be delivered with 4680 cells?

第一個問題是，我們什麼時候才能收到配備 4680 個電池的首批車輛？

Yes. Thanks, Martin. Early next year, from a non-cell perspective, structural, battery, crash, range and reliability testing are on track to be complete this quarter. Testing is -- to date has gone well, and the Fremont manufacturing line is on track to support. However, similar to what Zach said before, this is a new architecture and unknown unknowns may exist still. Our top priority is ensuring quality in what we deliver. And from a cell perspective, we are comfortable with the design maturity and manufacturing readiness, matching the pack time line I just mentioned.

是的。謝謝你，馬丁。明年年初，從非電池角度來看，結構、電池、碰撞、續航里程和可靠性測試將按計劃在本季度完成。測試－到目前為止進展順利，弗里蒙特生產線也按計畫進行，能夠提供支援。然而，正如 Zach 之前所說，這是一種全新的架構，可能仍然存在未知的未知因素。我們最重視的是保證產品品質。從電池的角度來看，我們對設計成熟度和製造準備感到滿意，符合我剛才提到的包裝時間表。

Thank you very much. The second question from an institutional investor comes, do you still expect to start production of the $25,000 model in 2023? What are the biggest hurdles from now until then?

非常感謝。機構投資者提出的第二個問題是：您是否仍預計在 2023 年開始生產售價 25,000 美元的型號？從現在到那時，最大的障礙是什麼？

Thanks, Martin. Yes. We're working on a strategy to increase our production rates as quickly as possible. I think Zach spoke to that well. And we're doing this while trying to add the least amount of incremental complexity to the business. We don't want to add any new vehicles to our lineup when we're generally in a cell-constrained world. While there is still more runway to grow these existing products, we are focused on Model Y expansion in Austin, Berlin, ramping S and X further in Fremont to restore to past levels while also growing 3 and Y production in Fremont and Shanghai. As we've mentioned before, after Model Y in Austin, our next product launch will be Cybertruck. And that timing, of course, depends on increasing cell capacity both from our suppliers and through our in-house cell as well as many other headwinds we face in the supply chain and completing our currently full plate of products on the table.

謝謝你，馬丁。是的。我們正在製定一項策略，以盡快提高生產力。我覺得札克在這方面說得很好。而且，我們正在努力盡可能減少對業務的額外複雜性。在目前這種資源有限的情況下，我們不想在產品陣容中添加任何新車型。雖然這些現有產品還有更大的成長空間，但我們目前專注於在奧斯汀和柏林擴大 Model Y 的生產規模，進一步提高弗里蒙特 S 和 X 的產量以恢復到以前的水平，同時在弗里蒙特和上海提高 3 和 Y 的產量。正如我們之前提到的，繼奧斯汀的 Model Y 之後，我們的下一個產品發布會將是 Cyber​​truck。當然，這個時間安排取決於供應商和我們內部電池產能的提升，以及我們在供應鏈中面臨的許多其他不利因素，以及我們目前所有產品計劃的完成情況。

Thank you very much. The third question is, with FSD beta training data sets set to explode exponentially as software is released to a wider and wider audience, are there any early takeaways with regards to how quickly versions can iterate and be pushed out from biweekly to weekly or even daily?

非常感謝。第三個問題是，隨著 FSD beta 訓練資料集隨著軟體發布給越來越廣泛的使用者群體而呈指數級增長，關於版本迭代和發布速度（從每兩週一次到每週一次甚至每天一次）方面，是否有任何早期經驗可以藉鑑？

At this point, it's not so much about how much data can we collect but how quickly can we process the data we've collected. This is where Dojo comes in, as we mentioned on AI Day. With substantially faster training computer in Dojo, we will be able to iterate more often than we do now if, for instance, say, the training and that takes 1 day instead of 1 week makes a huge difference in our ability to push out more updates. But realistically, there's a whole lot more that comes into play when iterating software updates. The whole infrastructure from top to bottom, including testing and validation, needs to be set up for faster iteration. So daily updates are not really realistic for now.

目前，重要的不是我們能收集多少數據，而是我們能多快處理已經收集到的數據。正如我們在人工智慧日上提到的，Dojo 正是在這裡發揮作用的。Dojo 中訓練電腦的速度大幅提升，如果我們現在需要進行更頻繁的迭代，例如，如果訓練時間從 1 週縮短到 1 天，這將極大地提高我們推出更多更新的能力。但實際上，在迭代軟體更新時，還有很多其他因素需要考慮。從上到下，包括測試和驗證在內的整個基礎設施都需要進行設置，以加快迭代速度。所以目前來說，每日更新就不太現實。

Thank you very much. The next question is, can you provide an update on future model development and how much diversity in your fleet will be necessary to achieve 20 million in annual volumes? The best-selling cars in the world today only sell slightly over 1 million units. So is it possible to achieve 20 million units with just S, X, 3, Y, truck and the $25,000 car?

非常感謝。下一個問題是，您能否提供未來車型開發的最新進展，以及為了實現年銷量 2000 萬輛的目標，您的車隊需要多大的多樣性？當今世界最暢銷的汽車銷量僅略高於100萬輛。那麼，僅憑 S、X、3、Y、卡車和售價 25,000 美元的汽車，是否有可能實現 2,000 萬輛的銷量？

Thanks, Martin. Yes. As we've mentioned before, we've seen record growth of both Model 3 and Model Y segments, where Model 3 is currently the best-selling luxury sedan worldwide. And as we mentioned at our shareholders' meeting, Model Y is poised to be the best-selling vehicle in the world. Tesla continues to break molds in these vehicle segments, and we hope to do so with each new product. As we've said publicly, we'll eventually expand the vehicle lineup to get to larger volumes, and we believe that we will need to be in all major segments across small and midsize, large sedans, SUVs and trucks to do so, along with, of course, the massive space of robotaxi.

謝謝你，馬丁。是的。正如我們之前提到的，Model 3 和 Model Y 兩個細分市場都實現了創紀錄的成長，其中 Model 3 目前是全球最暢銷的豪華轎車。正如我們在股東會上提到的，Model Y 有望成為全球最暢銷的車款。特斯拉不斷突破這些汽車領域的固有模式，我們希望每個新產品都能做到這一點。正如我們公開表示的那樣，我們最終將擴大產品陣容以實現更大的銷量，我們相信，為了實現這一目標，我們需要覆蓋小型和中型轎車、大型轎車、SUV 和卡車的所有主要細分市場，當然還有巨大的無人駕駛出租車領域。

Thank you very much. The next question from a retail shareholder is, what is Tesla's goal for vehicle production capacity for the 4 current factories, Fremont, Shanghai, Austin and Berlin, by 2024?

非常感謝。散戶股東的下一個問題是，特斯拉到 2024 年，目前 4 家工廠（弗里蒙特、上海、奧斯汀和柏林）的汽車產能目標是多少？

Yes. Thanks, Martin. Our goal as a company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so you can extrapolate that out. There may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that. But that remains the long-term goal of the company.

是的。謝謝你，馬丁。我們公司的目標是實現平均每年 50% 的成長速度。所以你可以由此推論出結果。在某些時期，我們可能會遠遠領先於這個目標。儘管我們盡了最大努力，但有時可能會出現低於這個水平的情況。但這仍然是公司的長期目標。

In Fremont, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there. Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory, where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we're targeting to increase that another 50%. I think that will be a difficult goal but that's the goal that the internal team has, and they're going to continue to push on that.

在弗里蒙特，我們不斷突破那裡一切可能的界限。在過去 12 個月裡，我們生產了大約 43 萬輛汽車。根據我們對工廠狀況的了解，包括瓶頸在哪裡、潛力在哪裡，我們的目標是再提高 50%。我認為這將是一個很難實現的目標，但這是內部團隊的目標，他們會繼續朝著這個目標努力。

As we look towards Shanghai, we're continuing to push the boundaries there and we continue to ramp production there as well, so most recently the ramp-up of the Model Y, which was our biggest contributor of volume in Q3. We'll continue to ramp that factory. And our plans there with time are to keep growing the capacity in that factory.

展望上海，我們將繼續在那裡突破界限，並繼續提高那裡的產量，最近我們提高了 Model Y 的產量，它是我們第三季度銷售的最大貢獻者。我們將繼續擴大該工廠的產能。我們計劃隨著時間的推移，不斷擴大該工廠的產能。

Austin and Berlin are interesting factories because our first iterations of capacity there are on Model Y, but we've intentionally set these factories in locations in which they have a quite significant amount of land and ability to expand. And so we'll take Model Y at these factories. We're trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can. And then we'll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories. And then we'll add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there.

奧斯汀和柏林是很有意思的工廠，因為我們在那裡的第一批產能都用於生產 Model Y，但我們特意將這些工廠建在擁有相當多土地和擴展能力的地方。所以我們會把Model Y送到這些工廠。我們正在努力盡快達到每週5000輛車的目標。然後我們將繼續努力，爭取讓這些工廠每週的產量達到 10,000 輛。然後我們會在奧斯汀引進 Cyber​​truck，並以此為基礎繼續發展壯大。

So our goal is to get to millions of cars per year over the next couple of years and then ultimately, in the long term, be able to achieve 20 million cars per year. We're going to grow as quickly as is feasibly possible with an eye towards a 50% annual growth rate.

因此，我們的目標是在未來幾年內實現每年數百萬輛汽車的產量，然後最終，從長遠來看，實現每年 2000 萬輛汽車的產量。我們將盡可能快速發展，目標是實現 50% 的年增長率。

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, what is your view on the tightening regulatory environment for FSD, the investigation and broad data request by NHTSA? Some of the recent nominees to NHTSA have been publicly critical of FSD, including engaging with short sellers online. How will you manage this environment?

偉大的。非常感謝。下一個問題是，您如何看待 FSD 監管環境的收緊、NHTSA 的調查和廣泛的資料請求？最近一些被提名為美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 官員的人公開批評了 FSD，包括在網路上與賣空者互動。您將如何管理這種環境？

Thanks, Martin. Yes. As we have been for years, we always engage with NHTSA and other worldwide regulatory bodies to share our knowledge and to work with them on our approaches on both active and passive safety. There are ongoing regulatory inquiries taking place all the time and especially on the subjects like FSD that are at the cutting edge of technology development. During these investigations, my team, myself are always cooperative as much as possible. We expect and embrace the scrutiny of these products and know that the truth about their performance and the innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.

謝謝你，馬丁。是的。多年來，我們一直與美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 和其他世界監管機構保持聯繫，分享我們的知識，並與他們合作，共同探討我們在主動安全和被動安全方面的方法。監管機構一直在進行調查，尤其是像FSD這樣處於技術發展前沿的領域。在這些調查過程中，我和我的團隊始終盡可能地配合。我們預料到並欣然接受對這些產品的審視，並且知道，最終真正重要的只有產品的性能和創新之處。

In the end and as I've said on previous calls, we take safety as a top priority in all our designs. This is because our primary motivation is from -- coming from a team of incredible engineers designing software and hardware that saves lives and prevents injuries. In doing so, we'll continue to be transparent to the public on how our technology is both developing from an Autopilot safety data, the latest of which we just shared in the shareholder update, and you can also see and review a wide variety of customer post FSD videos on social media. Back to you.

最後，正如我之前在電話會議中所說，我們在所有設計中都將安全放在首位。這是因為我們的主要動力來自——來自一支傑出的工程師團隊，他們設計軟體和硬體來拯救生命和防止傷害。為此，我們將繼續保持透明，向公眾展示我們的技術是如何發展的，這既包括基於自動駕駛安全數據的最新進展（我們剛剛在股東更新中分享了這些數據），也包括您在社交媒體上看到和回顧的各種客戶在使用 FSD 後的視頻。輪到你了。

Great.

偉大的。

Just to add to that, I mean as Lars said, safety is extremely important for Tesla. It's the right thing to do. And if you look at various independent testing and regulatory testing of our products, you can see the work of incredibly talented engineers in the results of those tests. And our goal in developing safety-oriented software around the car is to continue to go beyond what the hardware is able to provide. If you can prevent a crash from happening, that's the safest way to manage this.

補充一點，正如 Lars 所說，安全對特斯拉來說極為重要。這是應該做的。如果你查看我們產品的各種獨立測試和監管測試，你就能在測試結果中看到才華橫溢的工程師的工作成果。我們在開發以汽車為核心的安全軟體時，目標是不斷超越硬體所能提供的功能。如果能防止崩潰發生，那就是最安全的處理方法。

And I think at a macro level here, what we're seeing -- and this is entirely understandable and expected, is that the automotive industry is going through a transition from the traditional car as we know it to more of a computer, software-oriented, sensor suites around them that can manage things beyond just what the driver manages. And regulatory bodies are -- understandably so, are interested in understanding how to regulate in this environment, and NHTSA is no exception to that. So as Lars mentioned here, I think this is a great thing. We're excited to partner and we'll work collaboratively with all regulatory bodies who want -- to go on the journey to the transition to a software-oriented vehicle.

我認為從宏觀層面來看，我們正在看到的——這完全可以理解和預料之中——是汽車行業正在經歷從我們所知的傳統汽車向以計算機、軟體為導向、圍繞汽車配備傳感器套件的汽車的轉變，這些套件可以管理超出駕駛員控制範圍的事情。監管機構——這是可以理解的——有興趣了解如何在這種環境下進行監管，美國國家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）也不例外。正如 Lars 在這裡提到的，我認為這是一件很棒的事情。我們很高興能夠與所有希望共同努力轉型為軟體驅動型汽車的監管機構合作。

Thank you very much. The next question is, service remains an issue with appointments available weeks or even months out. Likewise, Supercharger wait times have become untenable at some locations. What concrete steps is Tesla taking to improve the customer experience in these 2 key areas?

非常感謝。下一個問題是，服務仍然存在問題，預約可能需要幾週甚至幾個月的時間。同樣，在某些地點，超級充電站的等待時間已經變得無法忍受。特斯拉正在採取哪些具體措施來改善這兩個關鍵領域的客戶體驗？

Yes. I'll take the service part of this question. Drew, you can take the supercharging part. We have seen an increase in service wait times throughout the summer. And there's a couple of things that have contributed to that based upon the information that we have. The first is that -- and I think this is kind of not -- this is not unique to us, is that the return to some sense of normalcy in a post-pandemic world has happened, I think, more quickly than most people expected. And what we're seeing here is that the number of miles that people are driving has increased. There may have been some demand for service during 2020 or in the early parts of 2021 that customers put off, and so there's a bit of a catch-up that's occurring. That has increased demand for service. At the same time, in the macro environment here, logistics, moving parts, sourcing parts has become increasingly more difficult, which is a well-known issue in the world right now, as well as challenges in the labor market.

是的。我來回答這個問題中的服務部分。德魯，你可以負責增壓部分。整個夏季，我們發現服務等待時間增加。根據我們掌握的信息，有兩件事促成了這種情況的發生。首先，我認為──而且我認為這並非我們獨有的現象──後疫情時代的世界恢復某種程度的正常狀態，我認為比大多數人預期的要快得多。我們看到的是，人們的駕車里程數增加了。2020 年或 2021 年初可能存在一些服務需求，但客戶推遲了這些需求，因此現在出現了一些追趕的情況。這增加了對服務的需求。同時，就宏觀環境而言，物流、零件運輸、零件採購變得越來越困難，這是目前世界各地眾所周知的問題，勞動力市場也面臨挑戰。

And so this kind of the simultaneous increase in demand for service with the ability to supply that service has been impacted for the reasons I mentioned. And so we saw an uptick primarily in Europe and North America in service wait times over the course of the summer. And we've been working extremely hard since then to address this, and we've seen our wait times come down. So this is not the case in every location, but if you think about it from regional average perspective, we are seeing improvements there.

因此，由於我剛才提到的原因，服務需求與服務供給能力同時增長的情況受到了影響。因此，我們看到夏季期間，歐洲和北美地區的服務等待時間增加。從那以後，我們一直在努力解決這個問題，而且我們已經看到等待時間縮短了。所以並非所有地方都是如此，但從區域平均值來看，我們看到情況正在改善。

We remain super-focused on adding locations. And so over the last year, we've grown our physical footprint of service centers by 35%. We've grown our footprint of mobile repair by over 40%. We're also adding staffing as quickly as we can in the areas that are most impacted by the imbalance of supply and demand for service.

我們將繼續全力以赴拓展業務地點。因此，在過去一年裡，我們的服務中心實體規模成長了 35%。我們的行動維修業務規模成長了 40% 以上。我們也正在盡快增加服務供需失衡影響最大的地區的員工人數。

But I think the most important part about all of this is -- and we've said this on calls before, where the best service is no service. And so we have been incredibly focused as a company both on the initial quality of our vehicles and reliability of our vehicles. And we've seen pretty substantial improvements in both of those metrics over the long term and over the last couple of quarters. So it is something that remains on our minds. We monitor this very closely. But hopefully, that's a helpful explanation into the context and what we're doing.

但我認為這一切中最重要的是——我們以前在電話會議上也說過——最好的服務就是不提供服務。因此，我們公司一直非常注重車輛的初始品質和可靠性。從長遠來看，以及在過去的幾個季度裡，這兩個指標都取得了相當大的進步。所以這件事一直縈繞在我們心頭。我們會密切關注此事。但希望這能幫助大家理解背景以及我們正在做的事情。

Yes. And on the Supercharger side, the supercharging team monitors congestion and plans expansion to ensure customer experience with minimal wait times alongside the growth in our vehicle fleet. While we certainly have work to do in expanding capacity in some congested areas, average congestion on the network has decreased over the past 18 months. Nonetheless, we're not standing still. We are executing accelerating expansion plans globally. The network has doubled in the last 18 months, and we are planning to triple it over the next 2 years. And even so on an individual-site basis to combat existing congestion more quickly where it is isolated and problematic, we expedite local relief sites, deploy mobile Superchargers, and we try to introduce pricing strategies that encourage more off-peak usage to avoid the waiting.

是的。在超級充電站方面，超級充電站團隊會監控擁塞情況，並制定擴建計劃，以確保客戶體驗，在車隊規模不斷增長的同時，最大限度地減少等待時間。雖然我們確實還有一些壅塞地區需要擴容，但過去 18 個月以來，網路平均擁塞情況有所下降。然而，我們並沒有停滯不前。我們正在全球加速執行擴張計劃。在過去 18 個月裡，網路規模翻了一番，我們計劃在未來 2 年內將其擴大兩倍。即便如此，為了更快地解決個別地點的擁堵問題（例如孤立且棘手的擁堵），我們會加快建設本地緩解站點，部署移動超級充電站，並嘗試引入定價策略，鼓勵在非高峰時段使用，以避免等待。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And one -- just one thing to add on supercharging. If you haven't experienced our latest iteration of battery packs that can handle fast charge rates in combination with our 250-kilowatt charging stations, it's pretty incredible. And this is a really important component to supercharging capacity because the faster you can charge, the more charge sessions that you can have on an individual post, the better the customer experience is as you're going on a long-term journey because your supercharging times are lower. So this is a really important part of the strategy. Supercharging team has done a great job rolling these out, but it requires a combination of both the 250-kilowatt charging and our latest iteration of battery packs.

還有一點——關於超級充電，還有一點要補充。如果您還沒有體驗過我們最新一代的電池組，它能夠配合我們的 250 千瓦充電站實現快速充電，那真是太棒了。這是超級充電能力的一個非常重要的組成部分，因為充電速度越快，單一充電樁可以進行的充電次數就越多，長途旅行的客戶體驗就越好，因為超級充電時間更短。所以這是該戰略中非常重要的一環。超級充電團隊在推廣這些功能方面做得非常出色，但這需要 250 千瓦充電和我們最新一代電池組的結合。

And we've also maintained an ongoing road map on software improvements, dynamic routing to avoid busy Superchargers. That's actually really helpful. We take the real-time busyness of the stations into account when choosing where to navigate people on their road trip. And beyond that, we're also continuing to improve the trip planner itself and how it estimates how much energy people use so it's not too conservative in asking people to charge more than they need to, which is another thing that can delay a total trip.

此外，我們也制定了持續改善軟體、動態規劃路線以避開繁忙的超級充電站的路線圖。這真的很有幫助。我們在選擇為公路旅行乘客提供導航的地點時，會考慮車站的即時繁忙程度。除此之外，我們還在不斷改進行程規劃器本身及其估算人們能源消耗量的方式，使其不會過於保守地要求人們充電超過實際需要，因為充電過多也會導致整個行程延誤。

Great. Thank you very much. The next question is, is Tesla considering any other ideas, other than FSD, with real-world AI that can bring additional software revenue to Tesla? If not, can Tesla consider building interesting games around FSD beta?

偉大的。非常感謝。下一個問題是，除了 FSD 之外，特斯拉是否還在考慮其他能為特斯拉帶來額外軟體收入的、具有實際應用價值的人工智慧方案？如果不行，特斯拉能否考慮圍繞FSD測試版開發一些有趣的遊戲？

Sure. At AI Day, we did talk about a potential future where Dojo could be used as a neural net training platform for other companies. It's not a focus of ours today as we're fully subscribed on Dojo with our internal uses. We do expect to continue to improve the in-car experience in the context of FSD.

當然。在人工智慧日上，我們確實討論過 Dojo 未來可能被用作其他公司的神經網路訓練平台。目前這不是我們的重點，因為我們已經完全訂閱了 Dojo 以滿足內部使用需求。我們期望在 FSD 的背景下繼續改善車內體驗。

Great, thank you. And maybe last question from shareholders is, how does FSD take rate -- how has FSD take rate changed since the introduction of monthly subscription? Are there any plans to increase FSD pricing as wider release becomes imminent?

太好了，謝謝。股東可能還會問最後一個問題，FSD 的使用率如何？自從引入月度訂閱制以來，FSD 的使用率發生了怎樣的變化？隨著FSD功能即將全面推廣，是否有計劃提高其價格？

I'll take the second part of the question first. We won't be providing any kind of forward-looking commentary on our pricing strategy or what may happen here over the near term. With respect to the first part of the question, it has been an interesting thing for us to unpack within the company. I mean what I'll say just as a general statement before I make a couple of specific comments is that the things that we learn on FSD subscription today are not necessarily all that relevant. This is really more of a platform for when FSD beta goes into wide release and the features and functionality become more accessible to more customers.

我先回答問題的第二部分。我們不會對我們的定價策略或近期可能發生的情況發表任何前瞻性評論。關於問題的第一部分，這對我們來說是一件很有趣的事情，值得我們在公司內部深入探討。在提出一些具體意見之前，我想先概括地說，我們今天在 FSD 訂閱方面學到的東西並不一定都那麼重要。這實際上更像是一個平台，當 FSD 測試版全面發布，更多客戶能夠更方便地使用其特性和功能時，它就能發揮作用。

The second thing that I'll note is that if you look at the pricing, the monthly pricing of FSD subscription, and then you compare that to the cost of either rolling FSD option into your lease or your loan, on a monthly basis, the most economical way for a customer to enjoy the features of full self-driving is through purchasing it upfront and rolling it through their financing. And as a result of that, what we've seen in the data is not -- we're unable to detect a change in the upfront take rate of FSD when people purchase cars. We have seen quite a bit of activity of folks curious to experience what the software has to offer and subscribing to it and enjoying it through that route. But again, as I said at the beginning, I think what we've seen so far on FSD subscription is not terribly relevant. We'll see how that plays out in the future as we continue to release more features.

第二點要指出的是，如果你看一下 FSD 訂閱的月費，然後將其與將 FSD 選項納入租賃或貸款的月費進行比較，你會發現，對於客戶而言，享受完全自動駕駛功能的最經濟方式是預先購買並將其納入融資。因此，我們從數據中看到的並不是——我們無法檢測到人們在購買汽車時預先選擇 FSD 的比例發生了變化。我們看到很多人對體驗該軟體的功能很感興趣，並透過訂閱和使用該軟體的方式享受了它的樂趣。但是，正如我一開始所說，我認為我們目前看到的 FSD 訂閱情況並不太相關。隨著我們不斷推出更多功能，我們將拭​​目以待未來的發展。

Thank you very much. And now let's go to analyst questions. (Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research. Pierre, feel free to unmute your mic and go ahead. Pierre, I think your mic is muted. Okay. While Pierre works on that, let's go to the next analyst.

非常感謝。現在我們進入分析師提問環節。（操作說明）下一個問題來自新街研究公司的皮耶·費拉古。皮埃爾，請隨意打開麥克風，開始吧。皮埃爾，我覺得你的麥克風靜音了。好的。在皮埃爾處理這個問題的時候，我們來看看下一位分析師。

The next question comes from Joseph Spak from RBC. Joe, we cannot hear you. Can you click unmute? Okay. While the team is working on that, let's just go back to say.com questions.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的約瑟夫·斯帕克。喬，我們聽不到你說話。你能點擊取消靜音嗎？好的。在團隊處理這個問題的同時，我們先回到 say.com 的問題。

So the next say.com question is, can Tesla allow for FSD to be transferred to another vehicle at a fee, something less than $10,000? Early adopters are paying the price if they want to upgrade their vehicle. You lose the value on the trade-in and now you have to buy in at a higher cost.

那麼，say.com 的下一個問題是，特斯拉能否允許將 FSD 功能以低於 10,000 美元的價格轉移到另一輛車上？早期用戶如果想要升級車輛，就必須付出代價。舊車置換貶值了，現在你得花更高的價格買新車。

I don't think that this is widely known, but we're already actually doing the sentiment of what this question is asking. If you trade in your Tesla to Tesla, we -- there's a difference in price that we pay for a trade-in that has FSD compared to one that doesn't. And so there's that premium that we pay to repurchase the FSD. That money can then be applied towards the purchase of a new car. So I just -- we hear this feedback quite a bit. We see it on social media. We see it in the forums, et cetera. And so this already does exist, not directly in the form here and we don't call it out explicitly in the trade-in potentially that we have increased the price of your trade-in as a result. And hopefully, this clears this up because we do actually do that.

我認為這一點並不廣為人知，但我們實際上已經在做這個問題所表達的意思了。如果您將特斯拉置換給特斯拉，我們—對於配備 FSD 的置換車輛，我們支付的價格與不配備 FSD 的置換車輛的價格有所不同。因此，我們需要支付額外的費用才能重新購買 FSD 功能。這筆錢可以用來買新車。所以，我們常常聽到這樣的回饋。我們在社交媒體上看到了這種情況。我們在論壇等地都看過這種情況。因此，這種情況已經存在，雖然沒有直接以這種形式出現，而且我們也沒有在以舊換新條款中明確指出，我們可能因此提高了您的以舊換新價格。希望這樣能解釋清楚，因為我們確實會這樣做。

Okay. And the next question is, Elon said that we'd get an update on Cybertruck in November a year ago but it hasn't happened and we know there are a lot of updates. Will you show off the new and improved Cybertruck?

好的。下一個問題是，埃隆一年前曾說過我們會在 11 月得到 Cyber​​truck 的最新消息，但至今仍未兌現，而且我們知道有很多更新內容。你會展示一下全新升級的Cyber​​truck嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Martin. We get a lot of questions on Cybertruck. We've been busy detailing the Cybertruck to achieve the prototype version we shared with customers a while back. As you may have seen recently in social media, we've built a number of alphas and are currently testing those to further mature the design. And while those point out a few key additions like rear steer, there are also a number of smaller or less visible improvements though the product is largely true to the initial vision. We'll continue to work through the product in the beta stages that we're in now and look to launch that by next year.

是的。謝謝你，馬丁。我們收到了很多關於Cyber​​truck的問題。我們一直在努力完善 Cyber​​truck 的細節，以實現我們先前與客戶分享的原型版本。正如您最近在社交媒體上可能看到的那樣，我們已經建立了多個 alpha 版本，目前正在測試這些版本以進一步完善設計。雖然這些指出了一些關鍵的新增功能，例如後輪轉向，但也有一些較小或不太明顯的改進，儘管該產品在很大程度上忠實於最初的設想。我們將繼續推動目前處於測試階段的產品開發，並爭取明年正式發布。

Okay. Thank you very much. We just promoted Pierre to a presenter. Can you hear us?

好的。非常感謝。我們剛剛提拔皮埃爾擔任主持人。你們聽得到我們說話嗎？

Can you hear me, guys?

你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes. We can hear you.

是的。我們能聽到你的聲音。

Amazing. I'm very impressed that you managed to figure that out like...

驚人的。我很佩服你居然能這麼快就搞清楚…

We have to.

我們必須。

Thank you, Pierre.

謝謝你，皮埃爾。

I would have panicked. Anyway, let me ask you my question. Actually, I'm very intrigued by what you guys are doing on the insurance front. And so you have now in the market in Texas an insurance product for which the premium varies as a function of the safety score of the driver. And so I'd love to hear you about that. You must have some initial data points about market reaction. What's the update?

我當時肯定會驚慌失措。總之，請容許我問你一個問題。事實上，我對你們在保險領域所做的工作非常感興趣。因此，現在德州市場上出現了一種保險產品，其保費根據駕駛員的安全評分而變化。所以我很想聽聽你的看法。您必須掌握一些關於市場反應的初始數據。最新進展是什麼？

And from there, can you tell us about how you think you're going to distribute that? Is that going to go through your installed base very easily? Or is it going to be like a heavy marketing push? And then maybe tell us about your expansion plans. What are the next geographies? What's the timing? How fast is that business line likely to grow in the next few years?

那麼，您能否告訴我們您打算如何分發這些資源呢？它能很容易地在你的用戶群中普及嗎？還是會像一場聲勢浩大的行銷推廣活動？然後或許可以跟我們說說你們的擴張計畫。下一個地理區域是哪裡？具體時間是什麼時候？未來幾年，該業務線可能會以多快的速度成長？

Yes. Thank you, Pierre. I'm extremely passionate about our insurance product. We have a terrific team here at Tesla of folks who have been spending a lot of time developing this and probably listening to the call. So we're pretty excited so far, Pierre.

是的。謝謝你，皮埃爾。我對我們的保險產品充滿熱情。特斯拉這裡有一支非常棒的團隊，他們花了很多時間開發這個產品，也可能聽了電話會議。皮埃爾，所以我們目前為止都非常興奮。

So I mean at the highest level here, we entered the insurance market kind of unintentionally, I would say. Our customers were coming to us, complaining that the price of traditional insurance was too high and it was reducing the affordability of a Tesla. And part of our journey here at Tesla is we want as many people as possible to be able to afford our products. That's extremely important to achieving the mission of the company. And if you look at the price of insurance as a percentage of what somebody's monthly payment is, it's quite high. And we spend extreme amounts of effort in manufacturing to take $5 of BOM cost out here or $10 out somewhere else. If we can get $5, $10, $20, $30 out on a monthly payment, you can calculate what that means in terms of reduction of the price of the car if you finance it, and the leverage of improving insurance cost is huge in terms of affordability.

所以我的意思是，從最高層面來說，我們進入保險市場可以說是無意的。我們的客戶向我們抱怨說，傳統保險的價格太高，降低了他們購買特斯拉的負擔能力。在特斯拉，我們努力的目標之一就是讓盡可能多的人能夠負擔得起我們的產品。這對於實現公司使命至關重要。如果把保險費用佔某人每月還款額的百分比來看，這個比例相當高。我們在生產製造方面投入了大量精力，只為在這裡減少 5 美元的物料清單成本，或在其他地方減少 10 美元。如果我們每個月能省下 5 美元、10 美元、20 美元、30 美元，你可以計算一下，如果你選擇貸款購車，這意味著車價會降低多少，而且降低保險成本對提高購車能力的影響是巨大的。

And so that's kind of the context by which we stepped into this. As we started to do more research, essentially, the tools by which the insurance is traditionally calculated are optimized based upon the existing data, but the existing data is limited. So they -- there's a focus on things like marital status or age or other attributes like that. Accident history is a good one, et cetera. But what essentially happens here is customers who are low risk and don't actually file many claims end up overpaying on their insurance relative to their cost. That overpayment then goes to riskier customers who are essentially being subsidized. And as we looked at this and we looked at the data, we thought this just doesn't seem like it's fair.

這就是我們介入此事的背景。隨著我們進行更多研究，我們發現，傳統上用於計算保險費用的工具基本上是根據現有數據進行最佳化的，但現有數據是有限的。所以他們——關注點在於婚姻狀況、年齡或其他類似的特徵。事故記錄是個好條件，等等。但實際上，低風險且很少提出索賠的客戶最終支付的保險費相對於其成本而言過高。這筆多付的款項會流向風險較高的客戶，實際上相當於在補貼他們。當我們仔細研究了這些數據之後，我們覺得這似乎不太公平。

At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car and whether those attributes correlate with safety because we do get a signal when a car has been in an accident. So we've been spending our time looking at hundreds of different variables and also looking at billions of miles of driving history. And we've been able to fit a model that is able to predict, with decent accuracy, the probability of collision over a period of time.

在特斯拉，由於我們的汽車是連網的，本質上是裝在輪子上的電腦，因此我們擁有大量數據，可以用來評估駕駛該車的駕駛員的屬性，以及這些屬性是否與安全性相關，因為當汽車發生事故時，我們會收到訊號。因此，我們一直在研究數百個不同的變量，以及數十億英里的駕駛歷史。我們已經建立了一個模型，能夠以相當高的準確度預測一段時間內發生碰撞的機率。

And the model is not perfect, right? The model is a function of the data that we have available. That data set continues to grow. We continue to experiment with new variables, but we do have a model that works pretty well so far. And from that model, being able to predict frequency of collision, we can then align that against the price curve. And we can have individualized pricing integrated into the car, integrated into the app, integrated into that customer's experience with a feedback loop back to the customer on how they are driving after every drive, the attributes that they were successful on or unsuccessful on, in the tips of things that they can do to improve their safety. So that's what we've developed.

這個模型並不完美，對吧？該模型取決於我們現有的數據。該數據集仍在不斷增長。我們仍在嘗試新的變量，但到目前為止，我們的模型運行得相當不錯。透過該模型，我們可以預測碰撞頻率，然後將其與價格曲線進行比對。我們可以將個人化定價整合到汽車中，整合到應用程式中，整合到客戶的體驗中，並在每次駕駛後向客戶回饋他們的駕駛情況，包括他們成功或失敗的方面，以及他們可以採取哪些措施來提高安全性。這就是我們開發出來的。

We then included the safety score as part of the FSD beta enrollment program, where we have almost 150,000 cars currently using a safety score. And I believe the latest data is over 100 million miles of driving. So we've been able to go back and analyze that data. And we've learned 2 things coming from that. The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using a safety score versus not is 30% lower. It's a pretty big difference. It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it. The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score. And that is aligning with our models. Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiple X difference in probability of collision based upon actual data. So this is a very new and very exciting frontier for us. I know that was long-winded, but I -- we spent a lot of time on this and we put a lot of thought into it.

然後，我們將安全評分納入了 FSD 測試版註冊計劃，目前已有近 15 萬輛汽車使用安全評分。我相信最新數據顯示，行駛里程已超過 1 億英里。因此，我們得以回顧並分析這些數據。我們從中學到了兩件事。首先，使用安全評分的客戶發生碰撞的機率比不使用安全評分的客戶低 30%。這差別可不小。這意味著產品運作良好，並且顧客給予了正面的回饋。我們研究的第二件事是根據實際數據，將碰撞機率作為駕駛員安全評分的函數。這與我們的模型相符。最值得注意的是，與較低級別的安全級別相比，如果您處於最高安全級別，則根據實際數據，碰撞機率會有數倍的差異。所以這對我們來說是一個非常新穎、非常令人興奮的領域。我知道我說得很囉嗦，但是——我們在這方面花了很多時間，也認真思考了很多。

Specifically with respect to the rollout, the insurance industry in the U.S. is intensely regulated and it's regulated on a state-by-state level. That means that we require regulatory approvals from each individual department of insurance at each individual state. Texas is the first state that we launched in. I do want to thank the Texas insurance regulators here. You have been great to work with. We have a road map of additional states. We will launch the product in those states as we receive regulatory approvals. And our goal is to be in every major market in which we have cars in.

具體到推廣方面，美國的保險業受到嚴格監管，而且是按州進行監管的。這意味著我們需要獲得每個州各保險部門的監管批准。德克薩斯州是我們第一個啟動計畫的州。我在此要感謝德州的保險監理機構。和你一起工作非常愉快。我們有拓展其他州的路線圖。我們將在獲得監管部門批准後，在這些州推出該產品。我們的目標是進軍我們擁有汽車的每個主要市場。

The -- we did a soft launch in Texas. Was it last week? Yes. And what we're seeing in initial take rate data is that if you compare that to what we're seeing in California, we're off to a good start here. So we're very excited about it. We're excited about individual risk-based pricing. We're excited about the ability for folks to become safer and, as a result, save money. And it feeds into our priority of a company -- of building the safest products in the world.

我們在德克薩斯州進行了試營運。是上週嗎？是的。從初步的接受率數據來看，如果與加州的情況相比，我們這裡已經有了一個好的開始。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我們對基於個人風險的定價模式感到興奮。我們很高興人們能夠變得更安全，從而節省開支。這也符合我們公司的首要任務—打造世界上最安全的產品。

Yes. If I can add to that, it's really exciting for the engineering team to see the finance team taking on safety into their world, too. It's just pervasive. Thanks for that, guys.

是的。如果我能補充一點，工程團隊看到財務團隊也將安全理念融入他們的工作中，真的非常令人興奮。它無所不在。謝謝各位。

Thank you, Lars.

謝謝你，拉爾斯。

Thank you. Pierre, do you have a follow-up question?

謝謝。皮埃爾，你還有後續問題嗎？

No, I think I'm fine. Zach, thanks for taking the time to answer. It's fascinating and very interesting, yes. I look forward to looking into that.

不，我覺得我沒事。札克，​​謝謝你抽空回答。是的，這很迷人，也很有趣。我很期待對此進行調查。

Thank you very much. The next question comes from Joseph Spak from RBC.

非常感謝。下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的約瑟夫·斯帕克。

Thanks. Can you hear me?

謝謝。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. We can hear you.

是的。我們能聽到你的聲音。

Perfect. So Zach, as you noticed -- or as you noted, you hit low teens operating margins. That was your medium-term target. You're there now despite the number of challenges and not full utilization in some of the plants. So how are you thinking about that target now? Does it allow you to either drive price down further to unlock more demand, invest in other initiatives, or does that target need to change? And then longer term, do you have an aspirational gross margin target as the mix of software and hardware changes?

完美的。所以扎克，正如你所注意到的——或者正如你所指出的，你們的營業利潤率只有十幾個百分點。那是你的中期目標。儘管面臨諸多挑戰，部分工廠尚未充分利用產能，但你們現在已經成功了。那你現在對這個目標有什麼想法呢？這樣是否能讓你進一步降低價格以釋放更多需求，投資其他項目，或這個目標需要改變？那麼從長遠來看，隨著軟體和硬體組合的變化，你們是否有一個期望的毛利率目標？

Yes. We have achieved -- we've actually exceeded our long-term guidance on our operating margin target. So we're very pleased to see that. And as we look out over the next quarter and the next year, there's kind of -- there's a number of puts and takes financially for the company. The launch of Austin and Berlin, we'll have ramp inefficiencies there for some period of time until we get those factories up and running. And so that's likely to put some downward pressure on our margins as those factories ramp. Our goals are to ramp those as quickly as possible. But as Drew mentioned earlier, there are a number of unknown unknowns that we'll need to work through.

是的。我們已經實現了——實際上，我們已經超額完成了我們長期以來設定的營業利潤率目標。所以我們很高興看到這一點。展望下一個季度和明年，公司在財務方面會面臨一些機會和挑戰。在奧斯汀和柏林工廠投產後，在一段時間內，由於產能爬坡效率低下，我們的工廠需要一段時間才能投入運作。因此，隨著這些工廠擴大產能，這可能會對我們的利潤率造成一些下行壓力。我們的目標是盡快提高這些產能。但正如德魯之前提到的，還有許多未知的未知因素需要我們去解決。

We are kind of also in this uncertain environment with respect to cost structure. So we are seeing cost increase on the commodity side. We're getting feedback from our suppliers, as we are seeing ourselves, the impact of labor shortage. And then logistics and expedite costs just continue to be a part of our story here, and it's uncertain how that will unfold. It's our hope that these things stabilize. Exactly when that happens is difficult to predict, and we have been adjusting pricing in line with those changes in cost. And so we'll see how that unfolds over the course of the next year. So it's difficult on gross margin to say where that will go for those reasons.

就成本結構而言，我們也處於這種不確定的環境。因此，我們看到大宗商品成本上漲。我們從供應商那裡得到了回饋，正如我們自己所看到的，勞動力短缺的影響也顯現出來。物流和加急費用仍然是我們故事的一部分，目前還不確定最終結果會如何。我們希望這些事情能夠穩定下來。這種情況何時發生很難預測，我們一直在根據成本變化調整價格。所以，我們將拭​​目以待，看看接下來一年裡事態會如何發展。因此，由於這些原因，很難預測毛利率的走向。

With respect to operating margin, we've been very focused as a company on managing our overhead expenses and operating expenses. And operating expenses as a percentage of revenue has been declining, and I expect that trend to continue to happen. And I think the net of all of this is hopefully that we continue to make progress on operating margin over the next 4 or 5 quarters.

就營業利益率而言，我們公司一直非常注重控制管理費用和營運費用。營運費用佔收入的比例一直在下降，我預計這種趨勢還會持續下去。我認為所有這些努力的最終結果是，我們希望在接下來的 4 到 5 個季度裡，營業利潤率能夠繼續取得進展。

As we think kind of forward, the business up until this point has kind of largely been a hardware automotive business with a little bit of software on top of that. As full self-driving matures, as take rates increase, if we are to raise pricing on that, there's considerable upside both on gross margins, and operating margin as that comes to light as the business starts to become more of a mix of a hardware-based company and a software-based company. So we feel optimistic about the journey -- very optimistic about the journey as we look over into the long term, just a little bit difficult over the next 4 to 5 quarters. We'll continue to update on earnings calls as we learn more information. There's just a lot of uncertainty in the world right now.

展望未來，到目前為止，我們的業務主要以汽車硬體為主，輔以少量軟體業務。隨著全自動駕駛技術的成熟和普及率的提高，如果我們提高價格，毛利率和營業利潤率都有相當大的提升空間，因為隨著公司開始更多地成為一家硬體公司和一家軟體公司的混合體，這一點將逐漸顯現出來。所以我們對未來的發展前景感到樂觀——從長遠來看，我們對未來的發展前景非常樂觀，只是在接下來的 4 到 5 個季度裡會稍微困難一些。我們將持續關注財報電話會議，並在獲得更多資訊後及時更新。現在世界上有很多不確定因素。

Thank you. Joe, do you have a follow-up question?

謝謝。喬，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. The second question is just you mentioned LFP packs globally for standard range models. My understanding is that all comes from China. Is that the continued go-forward plan? Or do you want these LFP capabilities in other factories around the world?

是的。第二個問題就是，您提到了全球標準續航機型的磷酸鋰電池組。據我了解，這些產品都來自中國。這就是後續的推進計畫嗎？或者，您希望在世界各地的其他工廠也具備這些磷酸鋰電池生產能力？

Yes. Certainly, our goal is to localize all key parts of the vehicles on the continent -- at least the continent, if not closer to where the vehicles are produced. So that is our goal and we're working with -- internally and with our suppliers to accomplish that goal and not just at the end-assembly level but as far upstream as possible.

是的。當然，我們的目標是在非洲大陸實現車輛所有關鍵部件的本地化生產——至少在非洲大陸本地化生產，如果可能的話，最好是在車輛生產地點附近生產。所以這就是我們的目標，我們正在內部以及與供應商合作來實現這一目標，不僅在最終組裝層面，而且盡可能地向上游推進。

Thank you very much. And the next question comes from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo. Colin, are you able to unmute? Okay. While we're waiting for that, let's go to the next one.

非常感謝。下一個問題來自富國銀行的科林·蘭根。科林，你能取消靜音嗎？好的。在我們等待結果的同時，讓我們來看下一個。

Sorry about that. Do you hear me now?

抱歉。現在你聽得到我說話了嗎？

Sorry. Yes. We can hear you now. Perfect.

對不起。是的。我們現在能聽到你的聲音了。完美的。

Sorry about that. Okay. Yes. Just actually kind of following up on a question before. You had mentioned commodities are rising. And when I look at a lot of the key raw materials in the battery, cobalt, nickel, lithium, all up 40%. And I know you guys have done a good job of getting long-term contracts to sort of mitigate that impact. I mean have you seen so far any impact from that spike? And if not, I mean any sense of when that raw material headwind might actually show up or has shown up?

抱歉。好的。是的。其實我只是想跟進之前的一個問題。您之前提到過大宗商品價格上漲。當我查看電池中的許多關鍵原料時，鈷、鎳、鋰，所有這些原料的含量都達到了 40%。我知道你們在簽訂長期合約方面做得很好，這在一定程度上減輕了這種影響。我的意思是，到目前為止，你看到那次激增帶來的影響了嗎？如果沒有，我的意思是，有沒有人知道原材料短缺的阻力何時會出現，或者已經出現了？

Yes. We have seen an impact. Our primary exposure right now is around nickel and aluminum, nickel on the cell, aluminum on non-cell. And we have a mixture of contracts with various suppliers. Some materials, we contract directly and we have full exposure to price fluctuations. We do have a number of long-term commitments -- long-term contracts in place. We also have contracts where there's some amount of cost-sharing based upon the movement of indexes. And so as these have been moving, some of those costs have been flowing through to us. It's not a substantial amount of cost but it's not small.

是的。我們已經看到了影響。我們目前的主要風險敞口在於鎳和鋁，鎳用於電池，鋁用於非電池。我們與多家供應商簽訂了多種合約。有些材料是我們直接採購的，因此我們完全暴露在價格波動的影響之下。我們確實有一些長期承諾——已經簽訂了長期合約。我們還有一些合同，其中根據指數的變動情況，會分攤一定比例的成本。因此，隨著這些項目的推進，部分成本也轉嫁到了我們身上。雖然金額不大，但也不算少。

As we look towards the next year, I certainly hope it doesn't play out this way, but it's possible that we continue to see more of cost headwind as a result of these movements. It's difficult to say precisely, but the volatility and the increases are just substantial -- so substantial. And there are certain suppliers that, maybe up to a certain point, have been absorbing some of the increase. And as contracts expire there or we have to renew and extend them, we'll have to return to negotiations.

展望明年，我當然希望情況不會如此發展，但由於這些變動，我們可能會繼續面臨成本上的阻力。很難準確描述，但波動性和漲幅都非常大——真的非常大。某些供應商或許在某種程度上已經承擔了部分成長成本。當那裡的合約到期或我們需要續約或延長合約時，我們將不得不重新進行談判。

And so what we have to do as a company and what we are intensely focused on is we need to be continuing to drive down the cost of our products, which we have been doing. And we have to overcome cost increases that are outside of our control. So whether that's resourcing components or redesigning components or finding ways to be more efficient in manufacturing, we have no choice but to continue on that path and be even more aggressive in the light of the macroeconomics here.

因此，作為一家公司，我們必須做的，也是我們目前重點關注的事情，就是繼續降低產品的成本，而我們也一直在做這件事。我們還必須克服我們無法控制的成本上漲問題。因此，無論是尋找零件資源、重新設計零件，還是尋找提高製造效率的方法，鑑於當前的宏觀經濟形勢，我們都別無選擇，只能繼續沿著這條道路前進，並且採取更加積極的措施。

And diversification, right? Like it doesn't need to be nickel or cobalt or -- I mean there's always another option.

還有多元化投資，對吧？不一定要是鎳或鈷，或是——我的意思是，總是會有其他選擇。

Thank you. Colin, do you have a follow-up question? Okay. Let's go to the next one. The next question comes from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

謝謝。柯林，你還有後續問題嗎？好的。我們來看下一個。下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的科林·魯什。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得清楚我說話嗎？

Yes. We can hear you.

是的。我們能聽到你的聲音。

Perfect. Can you talk a little bit about your strategy around anode materials and your ability to leverage that into a reduction on the cathode side and performance from (inaudible)

完美的。您能否談談您在陽極材料方面的策略，以及您如何利用這些策略來減少陰極側的損耗並提高性能（聽不清楚）？

Sure. I don't know that I'm going to get into too many specifics, but I guess first, one thing I would say is unlike the commodities discussion we just had, like the anode materials are not really in the same situation just in terms of what their constituent components are. So there's less of a focus on like rapidly changing them one way or the other because they're generally stable commodities. There isn't exactly like a tit for tat where like get a better anode, use less cathode. Like there's a fundamental ratio that you need to maintain for the cell to function.

當然。我不知道我是否會深入探討太多細節，但我想首先要說的是，與我們剛才討論的商品不同，陽極材料的情況並不相同，這僅僅是因為它們的組成成分不同。因此，人們不太關注如何快速地改變它們，因為它們通常是穩定的商品。並沒有像以牙還牙那樣，用更好的陽極材料減少陰極材料就能解決問題。就像細胞要正常運作就必須維持一個基本比例。

So I guess zooming out, the primary focus on the anode side that we have is just ensuring that it doesn't, in any way -- that we are able to continue to reduce the cost of the anode without impeding on the long-term cyclability of the product. It can also help with energy density. As you like sort of improve the energy density of the anode, you improve the energy density of the cell, not directly 1:1 because you have to pack more cathode in as the anode gets better. And that's a focus as well but the trade space is just sort of cycling versus day 1 cost.

所以，從宏觀角度來看，我們在陽極方面的主要關注點就是確保它不會以任何方式影響陽極的成本——我們能夠在不影響產品長期循環性能的前提下繼續降低陽極的成本。它還有助於提高能量密度。當你提高陽極的能量密度時，你也就提高了電池的能量密度，但這種提高並非直接的 1:1 關係，因為隨著陽極性能的提高，你必須在陰極中塞入更多的材料。這也是我們關注的重點，但交易市場目前只是在與第一天的成本進行某種程度的循環。

That's super helpful. And then just around the vehicle pricing strategy, obviously, there's a lot of flexibility there for some customers and not -- can you just talk a little bit about the process around vehicle pricing? And how quickly do you expect to change that and adjust as you see some of these commodity prices flow through the cost structure and you look at the brand dynamics for vehicles?

這太有幫助了。然後，關於車輛定價策略，顯然，對於某些客戶來說，這方面有很多靈活性，而對於另一些客戶來說則不然——您能談談車輛定價的過程嗎？當您看到一些大宗商品價格影響成本結構，並觀察汽車品牌動態時，您預計會以多快的速度改變和調整這種情況？

Yes. Pricing has been a really difficult thing for us over the last couple of quarters. And we're -- part of the challenge is -- well, I mean the great thing that we're seeing in the space right now is there appears to just be quite a profound awakening of the desirability for electric vehicles. And I mean to be totally frank, it's caught us a little bit off guard. And that kind of awakening and changing consumer sentiment, I'm sure there's lots of reasons that go into it, but folks want to buy an electric car and folks want to buy a Tesla right now. It's very exciting for us.

是的。過去幾個季度，定價一直是我們的一大難題。而我們面臨的挑戰之一是——我的意思是，我們現在在這個領域看到的最棒的事情是，人們對電動車的渴望似乎正在發生相當深刻的覺醒。坦白說，這確實讓我們有點措手不及。這種覺醒和消費者情緒的轉變，肯定有很多原因促成的，但人們現在想買電動車，想買特斯拉。這讓我們非常興奮。

At the same time, we have installed capacity to build more cars but we're constrained by a number of dynamics, as we've talked about in great detail. And we are putting an extreme effort to build as many cars as we possibly can. It's hard to overstate how extreme the efforts are. It's quite the grind. We're trying as hard as we can to maximize that capacity and to be able to meet the demand that we're receiving. But the net-net of all of this is that we're not able to increase production capacity fast enough.

同時，我們已經具備了生產更多汽車的能力，但正如我們之前詳細討論過的，我們受到許多因素的限制。我們正在竭盡全力生產盡可能多的汽車。這些努力的極端程度怎麼強調都不為過。這真是一項艱鉅的任務。我們正在盡最大努力提高產能，以滿足我們所收到的需求。但總而言之，我們無法足夠快地提高產能。

So at the same time, we are seeing macroeconomic cost impacts on our structure, as we've discussed previously on the call. So what we're trying to think through -- if somebody orders a car now, it will -- it could be delivered, in some cases, depending upon the car and which factory, could be a couple of months, could be a couple of quarters. And the timing in which we build that car will be just before that car gets delivered. And what will the world look like at that point? And so we're trying to think through, how the cost structure is evolving, how does pricing need to change with that, what are the supply dynamics in the space.

同時，正如我們之前在電話會議上討論的那樣，我們也看到了宏觀經濟成本對我們的結構的影響。所以我們正在考慮的是——如果有人現在訂購一輛車，那麼在某些情況下，根據車型和工廠的不同，可能需要幾個月，甚至幾季才能交付。我們製造這輛車的時間將恰好在交付之前。到那時，世界會變成什麼樣子？因此，我們正在努力思考成本結構是如何演變的，定價需要如何改變，以及該領域的供應動態是什麼。

The other thing that I'll just note on pricing is that companies change pricing all the time. The difference is that when Tesla changes pricing, it's extremely transparent, where that's not always the case otherwise. And sometimes, our pricing will increase. Sometimes, our pricing will reduce. Sometimes, to the public, our pricing changes may not seem to make logical sense. But there is a strategy that we work behind the scenes as we're balancing supply and demand, as we're also trying to balance various shortages on parts, as we're trying to manage wait times. All of that goes into the optimization here.

關於定價，我還要補充一點，那就是公司常常會調整價格。不同之處在於，特斯拉在調整價格時非常透明，其他公司則未必如此。有時，我們的價格會上漲。有時，我們的價格會降低。有時，大眾可能會覺得我們的價格變動不合邏輯。但是，我們在幕後製定了一項策略，以平衡供需，同時努力平衡各種零件的短缺，並努力控制等待時間。所有這些都納入了優化過程。

Okay. Thank you very much. The next question is from Brian Johnson from Barclays. Brian, please go ahead and you can unmute.

好的。非常感謝。下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。布萊恩，請繼續，你可以取消靜音了。

Testing. Can you hear...

測試。你聽得到嗎…

Yes. We can hear you.

是的。我們能聽到你的聲音。

Yes. No. It's -- by the way, great to hear there's a team at Tesla, not just a one-person show. I want to drill down a bit more on FSD. In December of 2020, in a Business Insider interview in Germany, your leader said that he expected Level 5 autonomy by December -- within a year. So that would be now. Yet we look at the progress in FSD and some of the issues you see on YouTube, and it looks very much like a Level 2, 2 plus system that requires vigilances, in fact, your disclaimers cite. So I guess 3 questions, kind of one, what is the timetable to get to Level 4 at least capability? We can deal with the regulatory stuff later.

是的。不。順便說一句，很高興聽到特斯拉是一個團隊，而不是一個人在做。我想更深入地了解FSD。2020 年 12 月，在德國接受 Business Insider 採訪時，您的領導人表示，他預計到 12 月（一年內）將實現 5 級自主性。那就是現在的情況了。然而，我們看看 FSD 的發展以及你在 YouTube 上看到的一些問題，它看起來很像一個需要保持警惕的 2 級或 2+ 級系統，事實上，你的免責聲明中也提到了這一點。所以我想問三個問題，其實算一個問題：達到至少 4 級能力的時間表是什麼？監管方面的事情我們可以以後再處理。

Two, what is the criteria, for Zach, for you to release revenue -- deferred revenue around FSD? And is having a Level 2 system that needs monitoring enough to release that deferred revenue?

第二，對 Zach 來說，你釋放 FSD 相關遞延收入的標準是什麼？僅僅擁有一個需要監控的二級系統就足以釋放這部分遞延收入嗎？

And then three, maybe you could talk a little bit more about how you plan to work with the new -- with the folks at NHTSA who appear to be asking some questions. They have 3 requests out to you regarding information around the Level 2, around the capabilities of FSD.

第三，或許您可以再多談談您計劃如何與美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 的新人員合作，他們似乎提出了一些問題。他們向您提出了 3 個關於二級 FSD 功能的資訊請求。

Yes. Thanks. We'll take them in order. It's difficult to be specific on the time lines. The Autopilot team is working extremely hard iterating on every version. We are being extremely transparent through the release of this to public customers who are posting information online. So when you're using full self-driving and you're going through the iterations, you can feel the progress. And for those who don't have it in their cars, social media is excellent at getting a sense for how that's progressing. And the team is moving quickly with every iteration, with every update, and they're working very hard on that.

是的。謝謝。我們將按順序接受它們。很難具體確定時間軸。自動駕駛團隊正在非常努力地迭代每個版本。我們透過向在網路上發布訊息的公眾客戶公開此訊息，做到了高度透明。所以，當你在使用完全自動駕駛技術並經歷迭代過程時，你可以感受到進步。而對於那些車上沒有車載攝影機的人來說，社群媒體是了解其發展狀況的絕佳途徑。團隊在每一次迭代、每一次更新中都進展迅速，他們為此付出了巨大的努力。

On your second question about the criteria to release deferred revenue, the way that this works is we have made certain commitments as to what this product can offer at the time that a customer has purchased that. And so what we have to assess is, have we met those commitments? And is the software widely available to folks that we've made those commitments to within a certain geography? And given that FSD is still currently in the beta phase, it's invitation-only and it's limited, we have not deemed that to be appropriate for recognition of deferred revenue. And we'll continue to evolve this. We'll continue to monitor it within the finance team to see when we get to the milestones in which we're comfortable releasing.

關於您提出的第二個問題，即釋放遞延收入的標準，其運作方式是，我們已經對客戶購買該產品時該產品能夠提供的功能做出了一定的承諾。因此，我們需要評估的是，我們是否履行了這些承諾？對於我們在特定地理區域內做出承諾的用戶，該軟體是否廣泛可用？鑑於 FSD 目前仍處於測試階段，僅限受邀用戶使用且功能有限，我們認為將其作為確認遞延收入的依據並不合適。我們會繼續改進它。我們將繼續在財務團隊內部進行監控，以確定何時達到我們可以放心發布的里程碑。

On the NHTSA question, Lars, do you want to take that?

關於 NHTSA 的問題，Lars，你想接受調查嗎？

Sure. I mean as I said earlier, we always cooperate fully with NHTSA and other regulatory bodies in any sort of investigation they may have, particularly related to ADAS systems. When they came out with the standing general order in July, we were quick to respond to that and one of the first and only companies capable of actually meeting the needs of that report. We continue to send that information to them as required, weekly and as incidents occur.

當然。我的意思是，正如我之前所說，我們始終全力配合美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 和其他監管機構的任何調查，特別是與高級駕駛輔助系統 (ADAS) 相關的調查。7 月他們發布了現行的一般性指令時，我們迅速做出了回應，並且是最早也是為數不多能夠真正滿足該報告要求的公司之一。我們會繼續按要求、每週以及在發生事件時向他們發送相關資訊。

And with the additional investigations, as I said, we meet that with great sincerity. And we'll work through them one by one to make sure that all the facts come out and that NHTSA is well informed about our strategies for both active safety in this case but also passive safety. As you guys may know, we released updates to our airbag and restraint system last week to Model Y using our fleet data. We worked closely with NHTSA on that, and they were fully in the loop before we did it. So I think these kinds of things will continue to happen in the new regulatory space that Zach discussed as we move towards a software-based vehicle. And we're happy to be a part of that journey.

正如我所說，對於後續的調查，我們非常認真負責。我們將逐一查，確保所有事實都水落石出，並確保美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 充分了解我們在此案中採取的主動安全和被動安全策略。各位可能已經知道，上週我們利用車隊數據，為 Model Y 發布了安全氣囊和約束系統的更新。我們與美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 密切合作，在實施之前，他們完全了解情況。所以我認為，隨著我們朝著基於軟體的汽車邁進，在扎克討論的新監管領域中，這類事情還會繼續發生。我們很榮幸能參與這段旅程。

Thank you very much. And the next question comes from Trip Chowdhry.

非常感謝。下一個問題來自 Trip Chowdhry。

Very good quarter. I had 2 quick questions. First is regarding the 2 upcoming factories in Berlin and Austin. How are the 2 factories different from each other, maybe in the layout, design, assembly lines?

本季表現非常出色。我有兩個問題想問一下。首先是關於柏林和奧斯汀即將建成的兩家工廠。這兩家工廠在佈局、設計、組裝線等方面有何不同？

And the second question is related to Cybertruck. Who is the supplier looking at if you look at the exoskeleton steel? Is the supply for that material sufficient for immediate ramp-up, say, in '23, '24 time for Cybertruck? That's all from me.

第二個問題與 Cyber​​truck 有關。如果檢視外骨骼鋼材，供應商的目標客戶是誰？目前的材料供應是否足以滿足 Cyber​​truck 在 2023 年、2024 年的快速增產需求？我的內容就這些了。

Yes. Sure. So obviously, as we've noted in the past, we developed our own stainless-steel grade for the exterior of Cybertruck to meet both the durability and corrosion requirements required for an automotive world. With this raw material and others, as Drew mentioned, we continue to look at multiple sources. We have made some early sourcing decisions in that, but I think we'll keep that one internal, and we've already began the first casting-ins of that. Rolling stainless isn't so different from pulling any other material. It's just about how hard the rollers are to get to that hardness level. And just like every manufacturing process we put in for every new vehicle, we'll work with our suppliers and vendors to make sure those time lines and supply meet the need and demand of our customers.

是的。當然。顯然，正如我們過去所指出的，我們為 Cyber​​truck 的外殼開發了自己的不銹鋼等級，以滿足汽車行業所需的耐用性和防腐蝕要求。正如德魯所提到的，有了這些原料以及其他原料，我們將繼續尋找多種來源。我們已經就此做出了一些初步的採購決定，但我認為我們會將此事內部處理，而且我們已經開始進行第一次鑄造。軋製不銹鋼與拉製其他材料並沒有太大差異。關鍵在於滾筒要達到那種硬度有多難。就像我們為每輛新車制定的每一個製造流程一樣，我們將與供應商合作，確保這些時間表和供應能夠滿足客戶的需求。

And on the differences between Austin and Berlin, there are some. They're largely associated with the different sort of building architectural choices that were -- happened to occur in collaboration with like local codes and other sort of governing requirements that drive the differences in the architecture between the locations. In general though, like we're trying to progress the manufacturing system as a system and make sort of logical, like, path to find improvements from factory to factory. And in some cases, there was an improvement identified between, like, decisions for one, Austin; the other, Berlin; or vice versa. And so there might be a slightly newer iteration of one part of the factory in one place than the other, but they're -- it's all part of a -- like a path forward in the factory that builds the machine -- the machine that builds the machine, sorry.

至於奧斯汀和柏林之間的差異，確實存在一些差異。它們主要與不同的建築風格選擇有關，而這些選擇恰好與當地法規和其他管理要求相結合，從而導致了不同地點建築風格的差異。但總的來說，我們試圖將製造系統作為一個系統來推進，並制定一個合乎邏輯的路徑，以便從一個工廠到另一個工廠找到改進的方法。在某些情況下，例如，奧斯汀的決策與柏林的決策之間存在改進，反之亦然。因此，工廠的某個部分在一個地方可能會比另一個地方有更新一些的版本，但它們——這一切都是——就像工廠裡建造機器的前進道路——建造機器的機器，抱歉。

Thank you very much. And the last question comes from Jed Dorsheimer from Canaccord.

非常感謝。最後一個問題來自 Canaccord 公司的 Jed Dorsheimer。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. We can hear you.

是的。我們能聽到你的聲音。

So Brandenburg, I'm just wondering, Zach, if you could estimate the carry costs from a margin perspective. Or I guess in 2 parts. So when do you expect -- do you still expect production coming on in '21, so a couple of months left in December? And how do you see that margin impact as a function of the carry cost? And I do have a follow-up question.

所以，布蘭登堡，扎克，我只是想問，你能不能從利潤率的角度估算一下持有成本。或者說，可以分成兩個部分。那你預計什麼時候開始生產？你仍然預計 2021 年 12 月開始生產嗎？也就是還有幾個月的時間？那麼，您如何看待持有成本對利潤率的影響？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. So it remains our target in both Austin and Berlin to be able to build our first production cars before the end of the year. We've talked about this a bit, the unknown unknowns, new factories, new vehicle designs, new technologies, new locations, new teams. So there is quite an execution journey ahead of us. But that remains our target and all of our plans are oriented around that. We -- for -- we should not expect for us to deliver cars by the end of 2021 from these factories even if we do produce them -- so homologation, regulatory reasons. And we'll want to make sure that we build up some number of cars that we're confident in the quality and the customer experience around them.

當然。因此，我們在奧斯汀和柏林的目標仍然是在年底前生產我們的第一批量產車。我們已經討論過一些問題，例如未知的未知因素、新工廠、新車輛設計、新技術、新地點、新團隊。因此，我們面前還有很長的執行之路要走。但這仍然是我們的目標，我們所有的計劃都是圍繞著這個目標的。我們——因為——即使我們生產這些工廠的汽車，我們也不應該期望在 2021 年底之前交付汽車——這是由於認證和監管方面的原因。我們希望確保生產出一定數量的汽車，我們對這些汽車的品質和客戶體驗都充滿信心。

The second thing that I'll say -- and I mentioned this in my opening remarks, is because of the newness here, it's extremely difficult for us to be precise in what the ramp will look like. And it's possible things -- the stars align and things move quickly. It's possible that we're spending the bulk of next year working on ramping these factories. It's just very hard to say, and we'll continue to update you all through these calls and through other forums.

第二點我要說的是──我在開場白中也提到──由於這裡是全新的，我們很難準確地描述坡道最終會是什麼樣子。事情並非不可能——天時地利人和，事情進展迅速。我們明年很可能要把大部分時間都花在提高這些工廠的產能上。很難說具體情況，我們會繼續透過電話會議和其他論壇向大家通報最新進展。

As to how that then impacts our margins, that is also difficult because that is a function of the ramp, which is uncertain. So the benefit here, which is different in the ramp of these factories compared to other factories, is if you think about the percentage of our total cost structure in any given quarter that is associated with new ramps, we have the Fremont factory that's running, generating stable and growing margins there. The same is also true in Shanghai. So I expect we'll see some amount of headwind on margin from these ramps. It's just entirely dependent on how quickly we're able to ramp and what uncertainties come up during the process.

至於這會對我們的利潤率產生怎樣的影響，這也很難說，因為這取決於產能爬坡速度，而產能爬坡速度是不確定的。因此，與其他工廠相比，這些工廠的產能爬坡帶來的好處是不同的。如果你考慮在任何給定季度，我們總成本結構中與新產能爬坡相關的百分比，那麼我們有弗里蒙特工廠正在運營，並在那裡產生穩定且不斷增長的利潤。上海的情況也是如此。所以我預計這些斜坡會對利潤率造成一定程度的不利影響。這完全取決於我們能夠以多快的速度擴大產能，以及在過程中會出現哪些不確定因素。

Sure. So on a margin per car -- but I would suspect though if your carry cost is full right now on the -- that as you start producing vehicles, it's going to be a margin lifter from where you're at right now, no?

當然。所以，就每輛車的利潤而言——但我懷疑，如果你的庫存成本目前是全部——那麼當你開始生產車輛時，利潤率會比現在有所提高，對吧？

I mean we are carrying some amount of costs associated with the factories today. And so the incremental cost associated with turning the factories, it's not 100% of a factory, if that's what you're getting at in your question.

我的意思是，我們現在承擔著與工廠相關的一些成本。因此，與工廠改造相關的增量成本，並不是工廠成本的 100%，如果你的問題指的是這個的話。

Yes, yes. That's what I was getting at.

是的，是的。我就是這個意思。

Yes. We also actually saw a very similar dynamic to this when we were launching Model S earlier in the year. So when a product starts launching and then cost of goods sold starts to activate, depreciation starts to activate, there's a bit of a movement in the P&L as to where that cost resides, so yes, assuming to some extent Brandenburg and Austin costs are already flowing through our P&L. But we still need to continue staffing and ramping and incurring all the operating costs associated with the factory that we're not spending right now.

是的。今年早些時候我們推出 Model S 時，也看到了非常類似的情況。因此，當產品開始上市，銷售成本開始生效，折舊開始生效時，損益表上的成本位置也會發生一些變化，所以是的，假設在某種程度上，勃蘭登堡和奧斯汀的成本已經通過我們的損益表流動。但我們仍然需要繼續增加人員配備、擴大生產規模，並承擔目前我們沒有支出的所有與工廠相關的營運成本。

Fantastic. Thank you very much, everyone, for all your questions, and we'll see you again in 3 months. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

極好的。非常感謝大家提出的所有問題，我們三個月後再見。非常感謝，再見。