特斯拉 (TSLA) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收看特斯拉 2021 年第三季度問答網絡直播。

My name is Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by our CFO, Zachary Kirkhorn, and our Senior VP, Drew Baglino, as well as other executives.

我的名字是 Martin Viecha，投資者關係高級總監，今天加入了我的還有我們的首席財務官 Zachary Kirkhorn、我們的高級副總裁 Drew Baglino 以及其他高管。

Our Q3 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m.

我們的第三季度業績是在下午 3:00 左右公佈的。

Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新組中的 Central Time。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

But before we jump into the Q&A, Zach has some opening remarks.

但在我們進入問答環節之前，扎克有一些開場白。

Zach?

扎克？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

We're continuing to make great progress as a company, setting new records on each of the most important financial metrics for Q3.

作為一家公司，我們將繼續取得巨大進步，在第三季度的每項最重要的財務指標上都創造了新的記錄。

Overall, we delivered just over 240,000 cars, 20% higher than last quarter and 70% higher than the same quarter last year.

總體而言，我們交付了超過 240,000 輛汽車，比上一季度增長 20%，比去年同期增長 70%。

We were also able to achieve an annualized production run rate of over 1 million cars towards the end of the quarter.

我們還能夠在本季度末實現超過 100 萬輛汽車的年化生產運行率。

The increase in production rate has primarily been driven by further ramping of the Model Y at our Shanghai factory.

生產率的提高主要是由於我們上海工廠的 Model Y 進一步增加。

Additionally, we have made great progress increasing production volumes of Model S and have recently started the ramp and deliveries of Model X. It will take a bit more time to get this program back to prior volumes, but based on demand, we are targeting to exceed historical production levels.

此外，我們在增加 Model S 的產量方面取得了很大進展，並且最近開始了 Model X 的量產和交付。使該計劃恢復到以前的產量需要更多時間，但根據需求，我們的目標是超過歷史生產水平。

We have also completed the transition of our Shanghai factory as our main export hub.

我們還完成了上海工廠作為主要出口樞紐的轉型。

This has enabled us to supply more vehicles to the North America market and to introduce Model Y to Europe.

這使我們能夠向北美市場供應更多車輛，並將 Model Y 引入歐洲。

Due to part shortages and logistics variability, we have not been able to run our factories at full capacity.

由於零件短缺和物流多變性，我們的工廠無法滿負荷運轉。

It's important to note that while we have roughly doubled deliveries year-to-date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve.

重要的是要注意，雖然我們今年迄今為止的交付量大約翻了一番，但這非常難以實現。

I want to thank our supply chain team for their incredible work and our production teams for showing impressive flexibility as we make adjustments real-time.

我要感謝我們的供應鏈團隊所做的出色工作，感謝我們的生產團隊在我們實時進行調整時表現出令人印象深刻的靈活性。

This team's expertise in the chip industry across all tiers has made a huge difference when managing through these challenges.

該團隊在芯片行業各個層面的專業知識在應對這些挑戰時產生了巨大的影響。

Additionally, we never reduced our production forecast with our suppliers as we're adding capacity as quickly as possible.

此外，我們從未減少與供應商的生產預測，因為我們正在盡快增加產能。

I also want to thank our suppliers for their dedication and partnership to Tesla.

我還要感謝我們的供應商對特斯拉的奉獻和合作。

Despite these increases in production and generally higher prices, our backlogs are continuing to grow and average customer wait times are extending.

儘管產量增加且價格普遍上漲，但我們的積壓訂單仍在繼續增加，平均客戶等待時間也在延長。

The only practical way to address this in the immediate term is to do everything we can to build more cars on our existing production lines, which is where we are focused.

在短期內解決這個問題的唯一可行方法是盡我們所能在我們現有的生產線上製造更多的汽車，這也是我們的重點。

Similar dynamics are also playing out on our storage business as we are working to expand Powerwall and Megapack production as quickly as parts and cells allow us to do so.

類似的動態也在我們的存儲業務中發揮作用，因為我們正在努力在零件和電池允許的情況下盡快擴大 Powerwall 和 Megapack 的生產。

Additionally, we have made good progress on the in-house battery manufacturing program, and we're excited to have expanded the full self-driving beta program to more customers.

此外，我們在內部電池製造計劃方面取得了良好進展，我們很高興將完全自動駕駛測試計劃擴展到更多客戶。

Financially, our auto gross margins reached 30.5% on a GAAP basis and just under 29% excluding regulatory credits, which is our strongest yet.

在財務方面，我們的汽車毛利率按 GAAP 計算達到 30.5%，不包括監管信貸則略低於 29%，這是我們迄今為止最強勁的。

This benefit primarily comes from higher volumes particularly out of the Shanghai factory, increased mix of the Model Y as we -- and we have made good progress increasing Model S volumes.

這一好處主要來自於更高的產量，尤其是上海工廠的產量增加，以及我們增加了 Model Y 的組合——我們在增加 Model S 的產量方面取得了良好的進展。

The Model S has now returned to positive gross margin, and we expect this to increase with higher production and the ramp of Model X.

Model S 現在已經恢復到正毛利率，我們預計這會隨著產量的增加和 Model X 的增加而增加。

As was the case in Q2, there was some net benefit from pricing actions.

與第二季度的情況一樣，定價行動帶來了一些淨收益。

However, this remains small in the context of other contributors.

但是，在其他貢獻者的背景下，這仍然很小。

Please keep in mind that given backlog, it will take time for the impact of recent changes to flow through our financials.

請記住，鑑於積壓，最近變化的影響需要時間才能通過我們的財務報告。

Note that we are also not yet recognizing additional revenue from the FSD beta program.

請注意，我們還沒有確認來自 FSD 測試版計劃的額外收入。

Supply chain challenges, including expedites, continue to provide cost headwinds as was also the case with FX this quarter.

供應鏈挑戰，包括加速，繼續帶來成本逆風，本季度外匯也是如此。

While we are seeing an impact from the rise in commodity and labor costs, we have also been adjusting pricing, which should help to compensate.

雖然我們看到商品和勞動力成本上漲的影響，但我們也一直在調整定價，這應該有助於補償。

Overall, as I mentioned in our last call, our P&L continues to benefit from the marginal profitability of each incremental unit with higher fixed cost absorption.

總體而言，正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，我們的損益繼續受益於每個增量單位的邊際盈利能力，並具有更高的固定成本吸收。

As a result of the great progress on margins, volume and appropriate management of overhead costs, we were able to achieve an operating margin of just under 15%, exceeding the long-term guidance we've laid out previously.

由於在利潤率、數量和間接成本的適當管理方面取得了巨大進步，我們能夠實現略低於 15% 的營業利潤率，超過了我們之前製定的長期指導。

On cash, we generated record operating cash flows of $3.1 billion and continue to invest heavily in the build-out of manufacturing, supercharging and service capacity.

在現金方面，我們產生了創紀錄的 31 億美元的經營現金流，並繼續大力投資於製造、增壓和服務能力的建設。

We also continue to retire high-interest-rate debt, including the early settlement of our 2025 senior notes of $1.8 billion during the quarter.

我們還繼續償還高利率債務，包括在本季度提前結算 2025 年 18 億美元的優先票據。

As we look forward, we are clearly quite a bit ahead of the pacing required to achieve our target annual growth rate of 50% this year.

展望未來，我們顯然遠遠領先於實現今年 50% 的目標年增長率所需的步伐。

Q4 production will depend heavily on availability of parts, but we are driving for continued growth.

第四季度的生產將在很大程度上取決於零件的可用性，但我們正在推動持續增長。

We are also nearing assembly of our first production cars in Austin and Berlin.

我們也即將在奧斯汀和柏林組裝我們的第一輛量產車。

It's important to stress, while the first production car is an important milestone, the hardest work lies ahead in the ramp.

需要強調的是，雖然第一輛量產車是一個重要的里程碑，但最艱鉅的工作還是在坡道上。

Please keep in mind that we are pushing the boundaries on new product and manufacturing technologies at these factories, which makes it difficult to predict the exact pace of the ramp.

請記住，我們正在這些工廠突破新產品和製造技術的界限，這使得很難預測斜坡的確切速度。

These factories will also partially weigh on our margins as we work towards volume production.

隨著我們致力於批量生產，這些工廠也將部分影響我們的利潤率。

Overall, I'm very proud of what the team has accomplished and I'm excited for our next phase of growth into Q4 and into 2022.

總的來說，我為團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪，我對我們進入第四季度和 2022 年的下一階段增長感到興奮。

The team has done a tremendous job improving our financial health in a short period of time while also continuing to improve our precision and pace of execution.

該團隊在短時間內完成了大量工作，改善了我們的財務狀況，同時還繼續提高了我們的執行精度和速度。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And we will now take questions from institutional and retail shareholders that we posted on our website.

我們現在將回答我們在網站上發布的機構和散戶股東的問題。

The first question is, when should we expect the first vehicles to be delivered with 4680 cells?

第一個問題是，我們應該什麼時候才能交付配備 4680 電池的首批車輛？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Early next year, from a non-cell perspective, structural, battery, crash, range and reliability testing are on track to be complete this quarter.

明年初，從非電池的角度來看，結構、電池、碰撞、範圍和可靠性測試有望在本季度完成。

Testing is -- to date has gone well, and the Fremont manufacturing line is on track to support.

測試 - 迄今為止進展順利，並且 Fremont 生產線有望提供支持。

However, similar to what Zach said before, this is a new architecture and unknown unknowns may exist still.

但是，與 Zach 之前所說的類似，這是一個新的架構，未知的未知數可能仍然存在。

Our top priority is ensuring quality in what we deliver.

我們的首要任務是確保我們交付的產品質量。

And from a cell perspective, we are comfortable with the design maturity and manufacturing readiness, matching the pack time line I just mentioned.

從電池的角度來看，我們對設計成熟度和製造準備情況感到滿意，與我剛才提到的包裝時間線相匹配。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The second question from an institutional investor comes, do you still expect to start production of the $25,000 model in 2023?

來自機構投資者的第二個問題來了，您是否仍希望在 2023 年開始生產 25,000 美元的型號？

What are the biggest hurdles from now until then?

從現在到那時最大的障礙是什麼？

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Yes.

是的。

We're working on a strategy to increase our production rates as quickly as possible.

我們正在製定一項戰略，以盡快提高我們的生產率。

I think Zach spoke to that well.

我認為扎克說得很好。

And we're doing this while trying to add the least amount of incremental complexity to the business.

我們正在這樣做，同時嘗試為業務增加最少的增量複雜性。

We don't want to add any new vehicles to our lineup when we're generally in a cell-constrained world.

當我們通常處於一個單元受限的世界時，我們不想在我們的陣容中添加任何新車輛。

While there is still more runway to grow these existing products, we are focused on Model Y expansion in Austin, Berlin, ramping S and X further in Fremont to restore to past levels while also growing 3 and Y production in Fremont and Shanghai.

雖然這些現有產品還有更多的發展空間，但我們專注於在柏林奧斯汀的 Model Y 擴張，在弗里蒙特進一步提升 S 和 X 以恢復到過去的水平，同時也在弗里蒙特和上海增加 3 和 Y 的產量。

As we've mentioned before, after Model Y in Austin, our next product launch will be Cybertruck.

正如我們之前提到的，在奧斯汀的 Model Y 之後，我們的下一個產品發布將是 Cybertruck。

And that timing, of course, depends on increasing cell capacity both from our suppliers and through our in-house cell as well as many other headwinds we face in the supply chain and completing our currently full plate of products on the table.

當然，這個時機取決於我們的供應商和我們的內部電池增加的電池產能，以及我們在供應鏈中面臨的許多其他逆風，並完成我們目前擺在桌面上的完整產品。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The third question is, with FSD beta training data sets set to explode exponentially as software is released to a wider and wider audience, are there any early takeaways with regards to how quickly versions can iterate and be pushed out from biweekly to weekly or even daily?

第三個問題是，隨著軟件發布給越來越廣泛的受眾，FSD 測試版訓練數據集將呈指數級增長，是否有任何關於版本迭代和從雙周到每週甚至每天推送的速度的早期結論?

At this point, it's not so much about how much data can we collect but how quickly can we process the data we've collected.

在這一點上，重要的不是我們可以收集多少數據，而是我們處理收集到的數據的速度。

This is where Dojo comes in, as we mentioned on AI Day.

正如我們在 AI Day 上提到的，這就是 Dojo 的用武之地。

With substantially faster training computer in Dojo, we will be able to iterate more often than we do now if, for instance, say, the training and that takes 1 day instead of 1 week makes a huge difference in our ability to push out more updates.

有了 Dojo 中明顯更快的訓練計算機，我們將能夠比現在更頻繁地迭代，例如，如果訓練需要 1 天而不是 1 週，這會極大地影響我們推送更多更新的能力.

But realistically, there's a whole lot more that comes into play when iterating software updates.

但實際上，在迭代軟件更新時，還有很多事情要發揮作用。

The whole infrastructure from top to bottom, including testing and validation, needs to be set up for faster iteration.

從上到下的整個基礎架構，包括測試和驗證，都需要設置為更快的迭代。

So daily updates are not really realistic for now.

所以現在每天更新並不現實。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question is, can you provide an update on future model development and how much diversity in your fleet will be necessary to achieve 20 million in annual volumes?

下一個問題是，您能否提供有關未來模型開發的最新信息，以及要實現年產量 2000 萬輛，您的車隊需要多少多樣性？

The best-selling cars in the world today only sell slightly over 1 million units.

當今世界上最暢銷的汽車銷量僅略高於 100 萬輛。

So is it possible to achieve 20 million units with just S, X, 3, Y, truck and the $25,000 car?

那麼僅使用 S、X、3、Y、卡車和 25,000 美元的汽車是否有可能實現 2000 萬台？

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Yes.

是的。

As we've mentioned before, we've seen record growth of both Model 3 and Model Y segments, where Model 3 is currently the best-selling luxury sedan worldwide.

正如我們之前提到的，我們已經看到 Model 3 和 Model Y 細分市場的創紀錄增長，其中 Model 3 目前是全球最暢銷的豪華轎車。

And as we mentioned at our shareholders' meeting, Model Y is poised to be the best-selling vehicle in the world.

正如我們在股東大會上提到的，Model Y 有望成為世界上最暢銷的汽車。

Tesla continues to break molds in these vehicle segments, and we hope to do so with each new product.

特斯拉繼續在這些汽車領域打破常規，我們希望每一款新產品都能做到這一點。

As we've said publicly, we'll eventually expand the vehicle lineup to get to larger volumes, and we believe that we will need to be in all major segments across small and midsize, large sedans, SUVs and trucks to do so, along with, of course, the massive space of robotaxi.

正如我們公開所說的那樣，我們最終將擴大車輛陣容以達到更大的產量，我們相信我們將需要在中小型、大型轎車、SUV 和卡車的所有主要細分市場中做到這一點，以及當然，還有機器人出租車的巨大空間。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question from a retail shareholder is, what is Tesla's goal for vehicle production capacity for the 4 current factories, Fremont, Shanghai, Austin and Berlin, by 2024?

一位零售股東的下一個問題是，到 2024 年，特斯拉在弗里蒙特、上海、奧斯汀和柏林這 4 個工廠的汽車產能目標是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Our goal as a company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year.

作為一家公司，我們的目標是以每年 50% 的平均速度增長。

And so you can extrapolate that out.

所以你可以推斷出來。

There may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that.

在某些時期內，我們可能遙遙領先。

There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that.

儘管盡了最大努力，但可能有一段時間我們會略低於那個水平。

But that remains the long-term goal of the company.

但這仍然是公司的長期目標。

In Fremont, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there.

在弗里蒙特，我們將繼續突破那裡的可能性。

Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們已經完成了大約 430,000 輛汽車的生產。

And based upon everything that we know in the factory, where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we're targeting to increase that another 50%.

根據我們在工廠中所知道的一切，瓶頸在哪裡，潛力有多大，我們的目標是再增加 50%。

I think that will be a difficult goal but that's the goal that the internal team has, and they're going to continue to push on that.

我認為這將是一個艱難的目標，但這是內部團隊的目標，他們將繼續推動這一目標。

As we look towards Shanghai, we're continuing to push the boundaries there and we continue to ramp production there as well, so most recently the ramp-up of the Model Y, which was our biggest contributor of volume in Q3.

當我們展望上海時，我們將繼續突破那裡的界限，我們也在繼續提高那裡的產量，所以最近增加了 Model Y，這是我們在第三季度的最大銷量貢獻者。

We'll continue to ramp that factory.

我們將繼續擴大該工廠。

And our plans there with time are to keep growing the capacity in that factory.

隨著時間的推移，我們的計劃是繼續提高該工廠的產能。

Austin and Berlin are interesting factories because our first iterations of capacity there are on Model Y, but we've intentionally set these factories in locations in which they have a quite significant amount of land and ability to expand.

奧斯汀和柏林是有趣的工廠，因為我們在 Model Y 上進行了第一次產能迭代，但我們有意將這些工廠設置在它們擁有大量土地和擴張能力的地方。

And so we'll take Model Y at these factories.

所以我們將在這些工廠使用 Model Y。

We're trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can.

我們正在努力盡快達到每週 5,000 輛的目標。

And then we'll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories.

然後我們將繼續超越這個目標，甚至可能在這些工廠每週生產 10,000 輛汽車。

And then we'll add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there.

然後我們將在奧斯汀添加 Cybertruck 並繼續從那裡發展。

So our goal is to get to millions of cars per year over the next couple of years and then ultimately, in the long term, be able to achieve 20 million cars per year.

因此，我們的目標是在未來幾年內每年達到數百萬輛汽車，然後最終從長遠來看能夠達到每年 2000 萬輛汽車。

We're going to grow as quickly as is feasibly possible with an eye towards a 50% annual growth rate.

我們將盡可能快地增長，並著眼於 50% 的年增長率。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question is, what is your view on the tightening regulatory environment for FSD, the investigation and broad data request by NHTSA?

下一個問題是，您對 FSD 日益收緊的監管環境、NHTSA 的調查和廣泛的數據要求有何看法？

Some of the recent nominees to NHTSA have been publicly critical of FSD, including engaging with short sellers online.

最近 NHTSA 的一些提名人公開批評 FSD，包括與在線賣空者接觸。

How will you manage this environment?

你將如何管理這個環境？

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Yes.

是的。

As we have been for years, we always engage with NHTSA and other worldwide regulatory bodies to share our knowledge and to work with them on our approaches on both active and passive safety.

多年來，我們始終與 NHTSA 和其他全球監管機構合作，分享我們的知識，並與他們合作研究我們在主動和被動安全方面的方法。

There are ongoing regulatory inquiries taking place all the time and especially on the subjects like FSD that are at the cutting edge of technology development.

監管調查一直在進行，尤其是像 FSD 這樣處於技術發展前沿的主題。

During these investigations, my team, myself are always cooperative as much as possible.

在這些調查中，我的團隊，我自己總是盡可能地合作。

We expect and embrace the scrutiny of these products and know that the truth about their performance and the innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.

我們期待並接受對這些產品的審查，並知道有關其性能的真相和我們產品的創新最終將是最重要的。

In the end and as I've said on previous calls, we take safety as a top priority in all our designs.

最後，正如我在之前的電話會議上所說，我們將安全作為所有設計的重中之重。

This is because our primary motivation is from -- coming from a team of incredible engineers designing software and hardware that saves lives and prevents injuries.

這是因為我們的主要動機來自——來自一群出色的工程師設計的軟件和硬件，可以挽救生命並防止受傷。

In doing so, we'll continue to be transparent to the public on how our technology is both developing from an Autopilot safety data, the latest of which we just shared in the shareholder update, and you can also see and review a wide variety of customer post FSD videos on social media.

在這樣做的過程中，我們將繼續向公眾透明地了解我們的技術是如何從 Autopilot 安全數據發展而來的，我們剛剛在股東更新中分享了最新的數據，您還可以查看和查看各種客戶在社交媒體上發布 FSD 視頻。

Back to you.

回到你身邊。

Great.

偉大的。

Just to add to that, I mean as Lars said, safety is extremely important for Tesla.

補充一點，我的意思是正如 Lars 所說，安全對特斯拉來說極其重要。

It's the right thing to do.

這是正確的做法。

And if you look at various independent testing and regulatory testing of our products, you can see the work of incredibly talented engineers in the results of those tests.

如果您查看我們產品的各種獨立測試和監管測試，您會在這些測試結果中看到非常有才華的工程師的工作。

And our goal in developing safety-oriented software around the car is to continue to go beyond what the hardware is able to provide.

我們圍繞汽車開發以安全為導向的軟件的目標是繼續超越硬件所能提供的範圍。

If you can prevent a crash from happening, that's the safest way to manage this.

如果您可以防止發生崩潰，那麼這是最安全的管理方式。

And I think at a macro level here, what we're seeing -- and this is entirely understandable and expected, is that the automotive industry is going through a transition from the traditional car as we know it to more of a computer, software-oriented, sensor suites around them that can manage things beyond just what the driver manages.

我認為在宏觀層面上，我們所看到的——這是完全可以理解和預期的，汽車行業正在經歷從我們所知的傳統汽車向更多的計算機、軟件的轉變——圍繞它們的面嚮導向的傳感器套件，可以管理超出駕駛員管理範圍的事物。

And regulatory bodies are -- understandably so, are interested in understanding how to regulate in this environment, and NHTSA is no exception to that.

監管機構——可以理解如此，有興趣了解如何在這種環境中進行監管，NHTSA 也不例外。

So as Lars mentioned here, I think this is a great thing.

正如 Lars 在這裡提到的，我認為這是一件很棒的事情。

We're excited to partner and we'll work collaboratively with all regulatory bodies who want -- to go on the journey to the transition to a software-oriented vehicle.

我們很高興與合作夥伴合作，我們將與所有希望繼續向面向軟件的車輛過渡的監管機構合作。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question is, service remains an issue with appointments available weeks or even months out.

下一個問題是，服務仍然是一個問題，可預約數週甚至數月。

Likewise, Supercharger wait times have become untenable at some locations.

同樣，在某些地方，增壓器的等待時間也變得站不住腳。

What concrete steps is Tesla taking to improve the customer experience in these 2 key areas?

特斯拉在這兩個關鍵領域採取了哪些具體措施來改善客戶體驗？

Yes.

是的。

I'll take the service part of this question.

我會回答這個問題的服務部分。

Drew, you can take the supercharging part.

德魯，你可以參加增壓部分。

We have seen an increase in service wait times throughout the summer.

我們看到整個夏季的服務等待時間都在增加。

And there's a couple of things that have contributed to that based upon the information that we have.

根據我們掌握的信息，有幾件事促成了這一點。

The first is that -- and I think this is kind of not -- this is not unique to us, is that the return to some sense of normalcy in a post-pandemic world has happened, I think, more quickly than most people expected.

首先是——我認為這不是——這不是我們獨有的，我認為，在大流行後的世界中恢復到某種正常感的速度比大多數人預期的要快.

And what we're seeing here is that the number of miles that people are driving has increased.

我們在這裡看到的是人們駕駛的里程數增加了。

There may have been some demand for service during 2020 or in the early parts of 2021 that customers put off, and so there's a bit of a catch-up that's occurring.

在 2020 年或 2021 年初，客戶可能推遲了一些服務需求，因此正在發生一些追趕。

That has increased demand for service.

這增加了對服務的需求。

At the same time, in the macro environment here, logistics, moving parts, sourcing parts has become increasingly more difficult, which is a well-known issue in the world right now, as well as challenges in the labor market.

同時，在這裡的宏觀環境中，物流、運動部件、採購部件變得越來越困難，這是目前世界上眾所周知的問題，也是勞動力市場的挑戰。

And so this kind of the simultaneous increase in demand for service with the ability to supply that service has been impacted for the reasons I mentioned.

因此，由於我提到的原因，這種對服務的需求與提供該服務的能力同時增加的情況受到了影響。

And so we saw an uptick primarily in Europe and North America in service wait times over the course of the summer.

因此，我們看到整個夏季的服務等待時間主要在歐洲和北美有所上升。

And we've been working extremely hard since then to address this, and we've seen our wait times come down.

從那時起，我們一直在非常努力地解決這個問題，我們已經看到我們的等待時間減少了。

So this is not the case in every location, but if you think about it from regional average perspective, we are seeing improvements there.

因此，並非每個地方的情況都是如此，但如果您從區域平均水平的角度考慮，我們會看到那裡的情況有所改善。

We remain super-focused on adding locations.

我們仍然非常專注於添加位置。

And so over the last year, we've grown our physical footprint of service centers by 35%.

因此，在過去的一年裡，我們的服務中心物理足跡增加了 35%。

We've grown our footprint of mobile repair by over 40%.

我們的移動維修業務範圍擴大了 40% 以上。

We're also adding staffing as quickly as we can in the areas that are most impacted by the imbalance of supply and demand for service.

我們還在受服務供需失衡影響最大的地區盡快增加人員配備。

But I think the most important part about all of this is -- and we've said this on calls before, where the best service is no service.

但我認為所有這一切最重要的部分是——我們之前在電話會議上說過，最好的服務就是沒有服務。

And so we have been incredibly focused as a company both on the initial quality of our vehicles and reliability of our vehicles.

因此，作為一家公司，我們一直非常關注車輛的初始質量和車輛的可靠性。

And we've seen pretty substantial improvements in both of those metrics over the long term and over the last couple of quarters.

從長遠來看，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們已經看到這兩個指標都有相當大的改善。

So it is something that remains on our minds.

所以它是留在我們腦海中的東西。

We monitor this very closely.

我們非常密切地監視這一點。

But hopefully, that's a helpful explanation into the context and what we're doing.

但希望這是對上下文和我們正在做的事情的有用解釋。

Yes.

是的。

And on the Supercharger side, the supercharging team monitors congestion and plans expansion to ensure customer experience with minimal wait times alongside the growth in our vehicle fleet.

在增壓器方面，增壓團隊監控擁堵情況併計劃擴張，以確保客戶體驗與我們車隊的增長一起以最短的等待時間。

While we certainly have work to do in expanding capacity in some congested areas, average congestion on the network has decreased over the past 18 months.

雖然我們在一些擁堵區域肯定有擴大容量的工作要做，但在過去的 18 個月中，網絡的平均擁堵情況有所減少。

Nonetheless, we're not standing still.

儘管如此，我們並沒有停滯不前。

We are executing accelerating expansion plans globally.

我們正在全球範圍內執行加速擴張計劃。

The network has doubled in the last 18 months, and we are planning to triple it over the next 2 years.

該網絡在過去 18 個月內翻了一番，我們計劃在未來兩年內將其增加兩倍。

And even so on an individual-site basis to combat existing congestion more quickly where it is isolated and problematic, we expedite local relief sites, deploy mobile Superchargers, and we try to introduce pricing strategies that encourage more off-peak usage to avoid the waiting.

即便如此，在單個站點的基礎上，為了在孤立和有問題的地方更快地解決現有擁堵問題，我們加快當地救援站點的速度，部署移動增壓器，我們嘗試引入定價策略，鼓勵更多的非高峰使用以避免等待.

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And one -- just one thing to add on supercharging.

還有一個——只是增加增壓的一件事。

If you haven't experienced our latest iteration of battery packs that can handle fast charge rates in combination with our 250-kilowatt charging stations, it's pretty incredible.

如果您還沒有體驗過我們最新版本的電池組，結合我們的 250 千瓦充電站，可以處理快速充電速率，那真是太不可思議了。

And this is a really important component to supercharging capacity because the faster you can charge, the more charge sessions that you can have on an individual post, the better the customer experience is as you're going on a long-term journey because your supercharging times are lower.

這是增壓能力的一個非常重要的組成部分，因為您充電的速度越快，您可以在單個帖子上進行的充電會話越多，當您進行長期旅程時，客戶體驗就越好，因為您的增壓次數較低。

So this is a really important part of the strategy.

所以這是戰略的一個非常重要的部分。

Supercharging team has done a great job rolling these out, but it requires a combination of both the 250-kilowatt charging and our latest iteration of battery packs.

超級充電團隊在推出這些方面做得很好，但它需要結合 250 千瓦充電和我們最新版本的電池組。

And we've also maintained an ongoing road map on software improvements, dynamic routing to avoid busy Superchargers.

我們還在軟件改進、動態路由以避免繁忙的增壓器方面保持了持續的路線圖。

That's actually really helpful.

這實際上非常有幫助。

We take the real-time busyness of the stations into account when choosing where to navigate people on their road trip.

在選擇為人們的公路旅行導航時，我們會考慮車站的實時繁忙情況。

And beyond that, we're also continuing to improve the trip planner itself and how it estimates how much energy people use so it's not too conservative in asking people to charge more than they need to, which is another thing that can delay a total trip.

除此之外，我們還在繼續改進旅行計劃器本身以及它如何估算人們使用多少能源，因此要求人們收取超出他們需要的費用並不太保守，這是另一件可能會延遲整個旅行的事情.

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question is, is Tesla considering any other ideas, other than FSD, with real-world AI that can bring additional software revenue to Tesla?

下一個問題是，除了 FSD 之外，特斯拉是否考慮過任何其他想法，通過現實世界的 AI 為特斯拉帶來額外的軟件收入？

If not, can Tesla consider building interesting games around FSD beta?

如果沒有，特斯拉是否可以考慮圍繞 FSD 測試版構建有趣的遊戲？

Sure.

當然。

At AI Day, we did talk about a potential future where Dojo could be used as a neural net training platform for other companies.

在 AI Day 上，我們確實談到了 Dojo 可以用作其他公司的神經網絡培訓平台的潛在未來。

It's not a focus of ours today as we're fully subscribed on Dojo with our internal uses.

這不是我們今天的重點，因為我們完全訂閱了 Dojo 並用於我們的內部使用。

We do expect to continue to improve the in-car experience in the context of FSD.

我們確實希望在 FSD 的背景下繼續改善車內體驗。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

And maybe last question from shareholders is, how does FSD take rate -- how has FSD take rate changed since the introduction of monthly subscription?

也許股東的最後一個問題是，FSD 的收費率如何——自推出月度訂閱以來，FSD 的收費率有何變化？

Are there any plans to increase FSD pricing as wider release becomes imminent?

隨著更廣泛的發布迫在眉睫，是否有任何提高 FSD 定價的計劃？

I'll take the second part of the question first.

我先回答問題的第二部分。

We won't be providing any kind of forward-looking commentary on our pricing strategy or what may happen here over the near term.

我們不會就我們的定價策略或近期可能發生的事情提供任何前瞻性評論。

With respect to the first part of the question, it has been an interesting thing for us to unpack within the company.

關於問題的第一部分，我們在公司內部展開了一件有趣的事情。

I mean what I'll say just as a general statement before I make a couple of specific comments is that the things that we learn on FSD subscription today are not necessarily all that relevant.

我的意思是，在我發表一些具體評論之前，作為一般性聲明，我們今天在 FSD 訂閱中學到的東西不一定都是相關的。

This is really more of a platform for when FSD beta goes into wide release and the features and functionality become more accessible to more customers.

當 FSD 測試版廣泛發布並且特性和功能變得更容易被更多客戶訪問時，這實際上更像是一個平台。

The second thing that I'll note is that if you look at the pricing, the monthly pricing of FSD subscription, and then you compare that to the cost of either rolling FSD option into your lease or your loan, on a monthly basis, the most economical way for a customer to enjoy the features of full self-driving is through purchasing it upfront and rolling it through their financing.

我要注意的第二件事是，如果您查看定價，FSD 訂閱的每月定價，然後將其與將 FSD 選項滾動到您的租賃或貸款中的成本進行比較，按月計算，客戶享受全自動駕駛功能的最經濟方式是預先購買並通過融資滾動使用。

And as a result of that, what we've seen in the data is not -- we're unable to detect a change in the upfront take rate of FSD when people purchase cars.

因此，我們在數據中看到的不是——當人們購買汽車時，我們無法檢測到 FSD 的前期購買率的變化。

We have seen quite a bit of activity of folks curious to experience what the software has to offer and subscribing to it and enjoying it through that route.

我們已經看到很多人好奇地想要體驗該軟件所提供的功能並訂閱它並通過該途徑享受它。

But again, as I said at the beginning, I think what we've seen so far on FSD subscription is not terribly relevant.

但是，正如我在開頭所說的，我認為到目前為止我們所看到的關於 FSD 訂閱的內容並不是非常相關。

We'll see how that plays out in the future as we continue to release more features.

隨著我們繼續發布更多功能，我們將看到未來會如何發展。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And now let's go to analyst questions.

現在讓我們來看看分析師的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

Pierre, feel free to unmute your mic and go ahead.

皮埃爾，隨時取消您的麥克風靜音並繼續。

Pierre, I think your mic is muted.

皮埃爾，我想你的麥克風靜音了。

Okay.

好的。

While Pierre works on that, let's go to the next analyst.

當皮埃爾在做這件事時，讓我們去看看下一位分析師。

The next question comes from Joseph Spak from RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Joseph Spak。

Joe, we cannot hear you.

喬，我們聽不見你說話。

Can you click unmute?

可以點擊取消靜音嗎？

Okay.

好的。

While the team is working on that, let's just go back to say.com questions.

當團隊正在努力解決這個問題時，讓我們回到 say.com 的問題。

So the next say.com question is, can Tesla allow for FSD to be transferred to another vehicle at a fee, something less than $10,000?

那麼下一個 say.com 的問題是，特斯拉是否可以允許將 FSD 以低於 10,000 美元的費用轉移到另一輛車上？

Early adopters are paying the price if they want to upgrade their vehicle.

早期採用者如果想要升級他們的車輛，就要付出代價。

You lose the value on the trade-in and now you have to buy in at a higher cost.

您失去了以舊換新的價值，現在您必須以更高的成本購買。

I don't think that this is widely known, but we're already actually doing the sentiment of what this question is asking.

我不認為這是廣為人知的，但我們實際上已經在做這個問題所問的情緒。

If you trade in your Tesla to Tesla, we -- there's a difference in price that we pay for a trade-in that has FSD compared to one that doesn't.

如果您將特斯拉換成特斯拉，我們-- 與沒有 FSD 的以舊換新相比，我們為以舊換新支付的價格存在差異。

And so there's that premium that we pay to repurchase the FSD.

因此，我們為回購 FSD 支付了溢價。

That money can then be applied towards the purchase of a new car.

然後可以將這筆錢用於購買新車。

So I just -- we hear this feedback quite a bit.

所以我只是 - 我們聽到了很多反饋。

We see it on social media.

我們在社交媒體上看到它。

We see it in the forums, et cetera.

我們在論壇上看到它，等等。

And so this already does exist, not directly in the form here and we don't call it out explicitly in the trade-in potentially that we have increased the price of your trade-in as a result.

所以這已經存在，而不是直接以這裡的形式存在，我們沒有在以舊換新中明確指出我們可能因此提高了您的以舊換新價格。

And hopefully, this clears this up because we do actually do that.

希望這可以解決這個問題，因為我們確實這樣做了。

Okay.

好的。

And the next question is, Elon said that we'd get an update on Cybertruck in November a year ago but it hasn't happened and we know there are a lot of updates.

下一個問題是，埃隆說我們會在一年前的 11 月獲得 Cybertruck 的更新，但它沒有發生，我們知道有很多更新。

Will you show off the new and improved Cybertruck?

你會炫耀新的和改進的 Cybertruck 嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

We get a lot of questions on Cybertruck.

我們收到了很多關於 Cybertruck 的問題。

We've been busy detailing the Cybertruck to achieve the prototype version we shared with customers a while back.

我們一直在忙於詳細介紹 Cybertruck 以實現我們前一段時間與客戶共享的原型版本。

As you may have seen recently in social media, we've built a number of alphas and are currently testing those to further mature the design.

正如您最近在社交媒體上看到的那樣，我們已經構建了許多 alpha，目前正在測試它們以進一步完善設計。

And while those point out a few key additions like rear steer, there are also a number of smaller or less visible improvements though the product is largely true to the initial vision.

雖然這些指出了一些關鍵的補充，如後轉向，但也有一些較小或不太明顯的改進，儘管該產品在很大程度上符合最初的願景。

We'll continue to work through the product in the beta stages that we're in now and look to launch that by next year.

我們將繼續在我們現在處於測試階段的產品中工作，並希望在明年推出該產品。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

We just promoted Pierre to a presenter.

我們剛剛將皮埃爾提升為主持人。

Can you hear us?

你可以聽見我們嗎？

Can you hear me, guys?

你能聽到我嗎，伙計們？

Yes.

是的。

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

Amazing.

驚人。

I'm very impressed that you managed to figure that out like...

我印象非常深刻，你設法解決了這個問題......

We have to.

我們必須。

Thank you, Pierre.

謝謝你，皮埃爾。

I would have panicked.

我會恐慌的。

Anyway, let me ask you my question.

不管怎樣，讓我問你我的問題。

Actually, I'm very intrigued by what you guys are doing on the insurance front.

實際上，我對你們在保險方面所做的事情很感興趣。

And so you have now in the market in Texas an insurance product for which the premium varies as a function of the safety score of the driver.

因此，您現在在德克薩斯州的市場上有一種保險產品，其保費根據駕駛員的安全評分而變化。

And so I'd love to hear you about that.

所以我很想听聽你的意見。

You must have some initial data points about market reaction.

你必須有一些關於市場反應的初始數據點。

What's the update?

有什麼更新？

And from there, can you tell us about how you think you're going to distribute that?

從那裡開始，你能告訴我們你認為你將如何分發它嗎？

Is that going to go through your installed base very easily?

這會很容易地通過你的安裝基礎嗎？

Or is it going to be like a heavy marketing push?

或者它會像一個沉重的營銷推動？

And then maybe tell us about your expansion plans.

然後也許告訴我們你的擴張計劃。

What are the next geographies?

下一個地理區域是什麼？

What's the timing?

什麼時間？

How fast is that business line likely to grow in the next few years?

該業務線在未來幾年可能增長多快？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Pierre.

謝謝你，皮埃爾。

I'm extremely passionate about our insurance product.

我對我們的保險產品充滿熱情。

We have a terrific team here at Tesla of folks who have been spending a lot of time developing this and probably listening to the call.

我們在特斯拉有一個很棒的團隊，他們花了很多時間來開發這個，並且可能聽取了電話。

So we're pretty excited so far, Pierre.

所以到目前為止我們非常興奮，皮埃爾。

So I mean at the highest level here, we entered the insurance market kind of unintentionally, I would say.

所以我的意思是，在最高層，我們無意中進入了保險市場，我想說。

Our customers were coming to us, complaining that the price of traditional insurance was too high and it was reducing the affordability of a Tesla.

我們的客戶來找我們，抱怨傳統保險的價格太高，降低了特斯拉的負擔能力。

And part of our journey here at Tesla is we want as many people as possible to be able to afford our products.

我們在特斯拉的旅程的一部分是我們希望盡可能多的人能夠負擔得起我們的產品。

That's extremely important to achieving the mission of the company.

這對於實現公司的使命極其重要。

And if you look at the price of insurance as a percentage of what somebody's monthly payment is, it's quite high.

而且，如果您將保險價格視為某人每月付款的百分比，則會相當高。

And we spend extreme amounts of effort in manufacturing to take $5 of BOM cost out here or $10 out somewhere else.

我們在製造方面付出了極大的努力，以在此處減少 5 美元的 BOM 成本或在其他地方減少 10 美元。

If we can get $5, $10, $20, $30 out on a monthly payment, you can calculate what that means in terms of reduction of the price of the car if you finance it, and the leverage of improving insurance cost is huge in terms of affordability.

如果我們可以每月支付 5 美元、10 美元、20 美元、30 美元，您可以計算出如果您融資，這對降低汽車價格意味著什麼，並且提高保險成本的槓桿作用是巨大的負擔能力。

And so that's kind of the context by which we stepped into this.

這就是我們進入這個的背景。

As we started to do more research, essentially, the tools by which the insurance is traditionally calculated are optimized based upon the existing data, but the existing data is limited.

隨著我們開始做更多的研究，本質上，傳統上計算保險的工具都是根據現有數據進行優化的，但現有數據是有限的。

So they -- there's a focus on things like marital status or age or other attributes like that.

所以他們 - 關注諸如婚姻狀況或年齡或其他類似的屬性。

Accident history is a good one, et cetera.

事故歷史是好的，等等。

But what essentially happens here is customers who are low risk and don't actually file many claims end up overpaying on their insurance relative to their cost.

但實際上，這裡發生的情況是，低風險且實際上並未提出許多索賠的客戶最終會相對於他們的成本多付保險費。

That overpayment then goes to riskier customers who are essentially being subsidized.

然後，多付的錢流向了基本上得到補貼的風險更高的客戶。

And as we looked at this and we looked at the data, we thought this just doesn't seem like it's fair.

當我們查看這個並查看數據時，我們認為這似乎不公平。

At Tesla, because our cars are connected, because they are essentially computers on wheels, there's enormous amounts of data that we have available to us to be able to assess the attributes of a driver who's operating that car and whether those attributes correlate with safety because we do get a signal when a car has been in an accident.

在特斯拉，因為我們的汽車是聯網的，因為它們本質上是帶輪子的計算機，我們可以使用大量數據來評估駕駛這輛車的司機的屬性，以及這些屬性是否與安全相關，因為當汽車發生事故時，我們確實會收到信號。

So we've been spending our time looking at hundreds of different variables and also looking at billions of miles of driving history.

所以我們一直在花時間研究數百個不同的變量，也研究了數十億英里的駕駛歷史。

And we've been able to fit a model that is able to predict, with decent accuracy, the probability of collision over a period of time.

我們已經能夠擬合一個模型，該模型能夠以相當準確的方式預測一段時間內發生碰撞的概率。

And the model is not perfect, right?

而且這個模型並不完美，對吧？

The model is a function of the data that we have available.

該模型是我們可用數據的函數。

That data set continues to grow.

該數據集繼續增長。

We continue to experiment with new variables, but we do have a model that works pretty well so far.

我們繼續試驗新的變量，但我們確實有一個到目前為止運行良好的模型。

And from that model, being able to predict frequency of collision, we can then align that against the price curve.

從該模型中，能夠預測碰撞頻率，然後我們可以將其與價格曲線對齊。

And we can have individualized pricing integrated into the car, integrated into the app, integrated into that customer's experience with a feedback loop back to the customer on how they are driving after every drive, the attributes that they were successful on or unsuccessful on, in the tips of things that they can do to improve their safety.

我們可以將個性化定價集成到汽車中，集成到應用程序中，集成到客戶的體驗中，並通過反饋迴路向客戶反饋他們每次駕駛後的駕駛情況，他們在哪些方面取得成功或不成功，在他們可以做些什麼來提高他們的安全的提示。

So that's what we've developed.

所以這就是我們開發的。

We then included the safety score as part of the FSD beta enrollment program, where we have almost 150,000 cars currently using a safety score.

然後，我們將安全評分作為 FSD 測試版註冊計劃的一部分，目前我們有近 150,000 輛汽車使用安全評分。

And I believe the latest data is over 100 million miles of driving.

而且我相信最新的數據是超過 1 億英里的駕駛里程。

So we've been able to go back and analyze that data.

所以我們已經能夠回過頭來分析這些數據。

And we've learned 2 things coming from that.

我們從中學到了兩件事。

The first is that the probability of collision for a customer using a safety score versus not is 30% lower.

第一個是使用安全評分與不使用安全評分的客戶發生碰撞的概率降低了 30%。

It's a pretty big difference.

這是一個相當大的區別。

It means that the product is working and customers are responding to it.

這意味著產品正在運行並且客戶正在響應它。

The second thing that we've looked at is what is the probability of collision based upon actual data as a function of a driver safety score.

我們研究的第二件事是根據實際數據作為駕駛員安全評分的函數的碰撞概率是多少。

And that is aligning with our models.

這與我們的模型一致。

Most notably, if you're in the top tier of safety compared to lower tiers, there's multiple X difference in probability of collision based upon actual data.

最值得注意的是，如果與較低級別相比，您處於頂級安全級別，則基於實際數據的碰撞概率會有多個 X 差異。

So this is a very new and very exciting frontier for us.

所以這對我們來說是一個非常新的和非常令人興奮的前沿領域。

I know that was long-winded, but I -- we spent a lot of time on this and we put a lot of thought into it.

我知道那是冗長的，但我 - 我們在這方面花了很多時間，我們也花了很多心思。

Specifically with respect to the rollout, the insurance industry in the U.S. is intensely regulated and it's regulated on a state-by-state level.

具體來說，就推出而言，美國的保險業受到嚴格監管，並在各州層面進行監管。

That means that we require regulatory approvals from each individual department of insurance at each individual state.

這意味著我們需要每個州的每個保險部門的監管批准。

Texas is the first state that we launched in.

德克薩斯州是我們推出的第一個州。

I do want to thank the Texas insurance regulators here.

我要在這裡感謝德克薩斯州的保險監管機構。

You have been great to work with.

和你一起工作很棒。

We have a road map of additional states.

我們有其他州的路線圖。

We will launch the product in those states as we receive regulatory approvals.

我們將在獲得監管批准後在這些州推出該產品。

And our goal is to be in every major market in which we have cars in.

我們的目標是進入我們擁有汽車的每個主要市場。

The -- we did a soft launch in Texas.

- 我們在德克薩斯州進行了軟啟動。

Was it last week?

是上週嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And what we're seeing in initial take rate data is that if you compare that to what we're seeing in California, we're off to a good start here.

我們在初始採用率數據中看到的是，如果您將其與我們在加利福尼亞看到的進行比較，我們在這裡有了一個良好的開端。

So we're very excited about it.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

We're excited about individual risk-based pricing.

我們對基於個人風險的定價感到興奮。

We're excited about the ability for folks to become safer and, as a result, save money.

我們很高興人們能夠變得更安全，從而節省資金。

And it feeds into our priority of a company -- of building the safest products in the world.

它體現了我們公司的首要任務——製造世界上最安全的產品。

Yes.

是的。

If I can add to that, it's really exciting for the engineering team to see the finance team taking on safety into their world, too.

如果我能補充一點，工程團隊看到財務團隊也將安全納入他們的世界真的很令人興奮。

It's just pervasive.

它只是普遍存在。

Thanks for that, guys.

謝謝你，伙計們。

Thank you, Lars.

謝謝你，拉斯。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Pierre, do you have a follow-up question?

皮埃爾，你有後續問題嗎？

No, I think I'm fine.

不，我覺得我很好。

Zach, thanks for taking the time to answer.

扎克，感謝您抽出時間來回答。

It's fascinating and very interesting, yes.

這很迷人，也很有趣，是的。

I look forward to looking into that.

我期待著對此進行調查。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question comes from Joseph Spak from RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Joseph Spak。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

Perfect.

完美的。

So Zach, as you noticed -- or as you noted, you hit low teens operating margins.

所以扎克，正如你所注意到的——或者正如你所指出的，你的營業利潤率很低。

That was your medium-term target.

那是你的中期目標。

You're there now despite the number of challenges and not full utilization in some of the plants.

儘管有些工廠面臨諸多挑戰並且沒有得到充分利用，但您現在已經到了。

So how are you thinking about that target now?

那麼你現在如何考慮這個目標？

Does it allow you to either drive price down further to unlock more demand, invest in other initiatives, or does that target need to change?

它是否允許您進一步壓低價格以釋放更多需求、投資於其他計劃，或者該目標是否需要改變？

And then longer term, do you have an aspirational gross margin target as the mix of software and hardware changes?

從長遠來看，隨著軟件和硬件組合的變化，您是否有理想的毛利率目標？

Yes.

是的。

We have achieved -- we've actually exceeded our long-term guidance on our operating margin target.

我們已經實現了——我們實際上已經超出了我們對營業利潤率目標的長期指導。

So we're very pleased to see that.

所以我們很高興看到這一點。

And as we look out over the next quarter and the next year, there's kind of -- there's a number of puts and takes financially for the company.

當我們展望下一個季度和明年時，會有一些 - 公司在財務上有很多看跌期權。

The launch of Austin and Berlin, we'll have ramp inefficiencies there for some period of time until we get those factories up and running.

奧斯汀和柏林的推出，在我們讓這些工廠啟動並運行之前，我們將在一段時間內降低效率。

And so that's likely to put some downward pressure on our margins as those factories ramp.

因此，隨著這些工廠的增加，這可能會給我們的利潤率帶來一些下行壓力。

Our goals are to ramp those as quickly as possible.

我們的目標是盡快增加這些。

But as Drew mentioned earlier, there are a number of unknown unknowns that we'll need to work through.

但正如德魯之前提到的，我們需要解決許多未知的未知數。

We are kind of also in this uncertain environment with respect to cost structure.

在成本結構方面，我們也處於這種不確定的環境中。

So we are seeing cost increase on the commodity side.

因此，我們看到商品方面的成本增加。

We're getting feedback from our suppliers, as we are seeing ourselves, the impact of labor shortage.

我們正在從我們的供應商那裡得到反饋，正如我們自己看到的那樣，勞動力短缺的影響。

And then logistics and expedite costs just continue to be a part of our story here, and it's uncertain how that will unfold.

然後物流和加急成本繼續成為我們這裡故事的一部分，並且不確定這將如何展開。

It's our hope that these things stabilize.

我們希望這些事情穩定下來。

Exactly when that happens is difficult to predict, and we have been adjusting pricing in line with those changes in cost.

究竟何時發生這種情況很難預測，我們一直在根據這些成本變化調整定價。

And so we'll see how that unfolds over the course of the next year.

所以我們將看到它在明年的過程中如何展開。

So it's difficult on gross margin to say where that will go for those reasons.

因此，由於這些原因，很難說毛利率會走向何方。

With respect to operating margin, we've been very focused as a company on managing our overhead expenses and operating expenses.

關於營業利潤率，作為一家公司，我們一直非常專注於管理我們的間接費用和運營費用。

And operating expenses as a percentage of revenue has been declining, and I expect that trend to continue to happen.

運營費用佔收入的百分比一直在下降，我預計這種趨勢將繼續發生。

And I think the net of all of this is hopefully that we continue to make progress on operating margin over the next 4 or 5 quarters.

我認為所有這一切的淨結果是希望我們在未來 4 或 5 個季度繼續在營業利潤率方面取得進展。

As we think kind of forward, the business up until this point has kind of largely been a hardware automotive business with a little bit of software on top of that.

正如我們向前考慮的那樣，到目前為止，該業務主要是硬件汽車業務，在此之上還有一些軟件。

As full self-driving matures, as take rates increase, if we are to raise pricing on that, there's considerable upside both on gross margins, and operating margin as that comes to light as the business starts to become more of a mix of a hardware-based company and a software-based company.

隨著完全自動駕駛的成熟，隨著收費率的提高，如果我們要提高定價，那麼毛利率和營業利潤率都有相當大的上升空間，因為隨著業務開始變得更多是硬件的混合-基於公司和基於軟件的公司。

So we feel optimistic about the journey -- very optimistic about the journey as we look over into the long term, just a little bit difficult over the next 4 to 5 quarters.

因此，我們對旅程感到樂觀——從長遠來看，對旅程非常樂觀，只是在接下來的 4 到 5 個季度有點困難。

We'll continue to update on earnings calls as we learn more information.

隨著我們了解更多信息，我們將繼續更新收益電話會議。

There's just a lot of uncertainty in the world right now.

現在世界上有很多不確定性。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Joe, do you have a follow-up question?

喬，你有後續問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The second question is just you mentioned LFP packs globally for standard range models.

第二個問題是您剛剛提到了全球標準範圍模型的 LFP 包。

My understanding is that all comes from China.

我的理解是，一切都來自中國。

Is that the continued go-forward plan?

這是繼續前進的計劃嗎？

Or do you want these LFP capabilities in other factories around the world?

或者您希望世界各地的其他工廠具備這些 LFP 能力？

Yes.

是的。

Certainly, our goal is to localize all key parts of the vehicles on the continent -- at least the continent, if not closer to where the vehicles are produced.

當然，我們的目標是在非洲大陸上本地化車輛的所有關鍵部件——至少在大陸上，如果不是更接近車輛生產地的話。

So that is our goal and we're working with -- internally and with our suppliers to accomplish that goal and not just at the end-assembly level but as far upstream as possible.

這就是我們的目標，我們正在與 - 內部和我們的供應商合作以實現該目標，不僅在最終組裝級別，而且在盡可能遠的上游。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And the next question comes from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Colin, are you able to unmute?

科林，你能取消靜音嗎？

Okay.

好的。

While we're waiting for that, let's go to the next one.

在等待的同時，讓我們進入下一個。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Do you hear me now?

你現在聽到我了嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

Yes.

是的。

We can hear you now.

我們現在可以聽到你的聲音了。

Perfect.

完美的。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

Just actually kind of following up on a question before.

實際上只是在跟進之前的一個問題。

You had mentioned commodities are rising.

你剛才提到大宗商品正在上漲。

And when I look at a lot of the key raw materials in the battery, cobalt, nickel, lithium, all up 40%.

而當我查看電池中的很多關鍵原材料時，鈷、鎳、鋰都上漲了 40%。

And I know you guys have done a good job of getting long-term contracts to sort of mitigate that impact.

而且我知道你們在獲得長期合同以減輕這種影響方面做得很好。

I mean have you seen so far any impact from that spike?

我的意思是，到目前為止，您是否看到了那個峰值的任何影響？

And if not, I mean any sense of when that raw material headwind might actually show up or has shown up?

如果沒有，我的意思是原材料逆風何時可能真正出現或已經出現？

Yes.

是的。

We have seen an impact.

我們已經看到了影響。

Our primary exposure right now is around nickel and aluminum, nickel on the cell, aluminum on non-cell.

我們現在主要接觸的是鎳和鋁，電池上的鎳，非電池上的鋁。

And we have a mixture of contracts with various suppliers.

我們與各種供應商簽訂了混合合同。

Some materials, we contract directly and we have full exposure to price fluctuations.

有些材料，我們直接簽約，我們完全暴露在價格波動中。

We do have a number of long-term commitments -- long-term contracts in place.

我們確實有一些長期承諾——長期合同到位。

We also have contracts where there's some amount of cost-sharing based upon the movement of indexes.

我們也有一些合同，其中根據索引的移動有一定數量的成本分攤。

And so as these have been moving, some of those costs have been flowing through to us.

因此，隨著這些活動的進行，其中一些成本已經流向了我們。

It's not a substantial amount of cost but it's not small.

這不是一個很大的成本，但也不小。

As we look towards the next year, I certainly hope it doesn't play out this way, but it's possible that we continue to see more of cost headwind as a result of these movements.

當我們展望明年時，我當然希望它不會以這種方式發揮作用，但由於這些變動，我們可能會繼續看到更多的成本逆風。

It's difficult to say precisely, but the volatility and the increases are just substantial -- so substantial.

很難準確地說，但波動性和增長是巨大的——如此之大。

And there are certain suppliers that, maybe up to a certain point, have been absorbing some of the increase.

並且某些供應商可能在一定程度上吸收了部分增長。

And as contracts expire there or we have to renew and extend them, we'll have to return to negotiations.

當合同到期或我們必須續籤和延長合同時，我們將不得不重新進行談判。

And so what we have to do as a company and what we are intensely focused on is we need to be continuing to drive down the cost of our products, which we have been doing.

因此，作為一家公司，我們必須做的以及我們非常關注的是我們需要繼續降低我們一直在做的產品成本。

And we have to overcome cost increases that are outside of our control.

我們必須克服超出我們控制範圍的成本增加。

So whether that's resourcing components or redesigning components or finding ways to be more efficient in manufacturing, we have no choice but to continue on that path and be even more aggressive in the light of the macroeconomics here.

因此，無論是採購組件或重新設計組件，還是尋找提高製造效率的方法，我們別無選擇，只能繼續走這條路，並根據這裡的宏觀經濟更加積極進取。

And diversification, right?

和多樣化，對吧？

Like it doesn't need to be nickel or cobalt or -- I mean there's always another option.

就像它不需要是鎳或鈷一樣，或者 - 我的意思是總有另一種選擇。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Colin, do you have a follow-up question?

科林，你有後續問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Let's go to the next one.

讓我們進入下一個。

The next question comes from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Colin Rusch。

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我好嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

Perfect.

完美的。

Can you talk a little bit about your strategy around anode materials and your ability to leverage that into a reduction on the cathode side and performance from (inaudible)

您能否談談您圍繞陽極材料的策略以及您利用它降低陰極側和性能的能力（聽不清）

Sure.

當然。

I don't know that I'm going to get into too many specifics, but I guess first, one thing I would say is unlike the commodities discussion we just had, like the anode materials are not really in the same situation just in terms of what their constituent components are.

我不知道我會涉及太多細節，但我想首先，我要說的一件事與我們剛剛進行的商品討論不同，就像陽極材料在術語方面並不完全相同它們的組成成分是什麼。

So there's less of a focus on like rapidly changing them one way or the other because they're generally stable commodities.

因此，很少有人關注以一種或另一種方式快速改變它們，因為它們通常是穩定的商品。

There isn't exactly like a tit for tat where like get a better anode, use less cathode.

沒有完全像針鋒相對的那樣獲得更好的陽極，使用更少的陰極。

Like there's a fundamental ratio that you need to maintain for the cell to function.

就像你需要保持一個基本的比率來讓細胞發揮作用。

So I guess zooming out, the primary focus on the anode side that we have is just ensuring that it doesn't, in any way -- that we are able to continue to reduce the cost of the anode without impeding on the long-term cyclability of the product.

所以我想縮小，我們對陽極側的主要關注只是確保它不會以任何方式 - 我們能夠繼續降低陽極的成本而不會妨礙長期產品的循環性。

It can also help with energy density.

它還可以幫助提高能量密度。

As you like sort of improve the energy density of the anode, you improve the energy density of the cell, not directly 1:1 because you have to pack more cathode in as the anode gets better.

當您喜歡提高陽極的能量密度時，您可以提高電池的能量密度，而不是直接 1:1，因為隨著陽極變得更好，您必須裝入更多的陰極。

And that's a focus as well but the trade space is just sort of cycling versus day 1 cost.

這也是一個重點，但交易空間只是與第 1 天成本的循環。

That's super helpful.

這超級有幫助。

And then just around the vehicle pricing strategy, obviously, there's a lot of flexibility there for some customers and not -- can you just talk a little bit about the process around vehicle pricing?

然後就車輛定價策略而言，顯然，對於某些客戶來說有很大的靈活性，而不是 - 您能談談有關車輛定價的過程嗎？

And how quickly do you expect to change that and adjust as you see some of these commodity prices flow through the cost structure and you look at the brand dynamics for vehicles?

當您看到其中一些商品價格流經成本結構並查看汽車的品牌動態時，您希望多快改變和調整？

Yes.

是的。

Pricing has been a really difficult thing for us over the last couple of quarters.

在過去的幾個季度中，定價對我們來說是一件非常困難的事情。

And we're -- part of the challenge is -- well, I mean the great thing that we're seeing in the space right now is there appears to just be quite a profound awakening of the desirability for electric vehicles.

我們 - 挑戰的一部分是 - 好吧，我的意思是我們現在在這個領域看到的偉大的事情是對電動汽車的需求似乎有了深刻的覺醒。

And I mean to be totally frank, it's caught us a little bit off guard.

坦率地說，這讓我們有點措手不及。

And that kind of awakening and changing consumer sentiment, I'm sure there's lots of reasons that go into it, but folks want to buy an electric car and folks want to buy a Tesla right now.

那種覺醒和不斷變化的消費者情緒，我相信有很多原因，但人們現在想購買電動汽車，人們想購買特斯拉。

It's very exciting for us.

這對我們來說非常令人興奮。

At the same time, we have installed capacity to build more cars but we're constrained by a number of dynamics, as we've talked about in great detail.

與此同時，我們已經安裝了生產更多汽車的能力，但我們受到了許多動態的限制，正如我們已經詳細討論過的那樣。

And we are putting an extreme effort to build as many cars as we possibly can.

我們正在盡最大努力製造盡可能多的汽車。

It's hard to overstate how extreme the efforts are.

很難誇大這些努力的極端程度。

It's quite the grind.

這是相當的磨難。

We're trying as hard as we can to maximize that capacity and to be able to meet the demand that we're receiving.

我們正在盡最大努力最大化該容量並能夠滿足我們收到的需求。

But the net-net of all of this is that we're not able to increase production capacity fast enough.

但所有這一切的最終結果是我們無法足夠快地提高產能。

So at the same time, we are seeing macroeconomic cost impacts on our structure, as we've discussed previously on the call.

因此，與此同時，正如我們之前在電話會議上討論的那樣，我們看到宏觀經濟成本對我們的結構產生了影響。

So what we're trying to think through -- if somebody orders a car now, it will -- it could be delivered, in some cases, depending upon the car and which factory, could be a couple of months, could be a couple of quarters.

所以我們正在考慮 - 如果有人現在訂購汽車，它會 - 它可以交付，在某些情況下，取決於汽車和哪個工廠，可能需要幾個月，可能需要幾個月的宿舍。

And the timing in which we build that car will be just before that car gets delivered.

我們製造那輛車的時間將是在那輛車交付之前。

And what will the world look like at that point?

那時的世界會是什麼樣子？

And so we're trying to think through, how the cost structure is evolving, how does pricing need to change with that, what are the supply dynamics in the space.

因此，我們正在努力思考成本結構如何演變，定價需要如何隨之變化，該領域的供應動態是什麼。

The other thing that I'll just note on pricing is that companies change pricing all the time.

關於定價我要注意的另一件事是公司一直在改變定價。

The difference is that when Tesla changes pricing, it's extremely transparent, where that's not always the case otherwise.

不同的是，當特斯拉改變定價時，它是非常透明的，否則情況並非總是如此。

And sometimes, our pricing will increase.

有時，我們的定價會增加。

Sometimes, our pricing will reduce.

有時，我們的定價會降低。

Sometimes, to the public, our pricing changes may not seem to make logical sense.

有時，對公眾而言，我們的定價變化似乎不合邏輯。

But there is a strategy that we work behind the scenes as we're balancing supply and demand, as we're also trying to balance various shortages on parts, as we're trying to manage wait times.

但是我們在幕後製定了一項策略，因為我們正在平衡供需，因為我們也在努力平衡零件的各種短缺，因為我們正在努力管理等待時間。

All of that goes into the optimization here.

所有這些都在這裡進行了優化。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

The next question is from Brian Johnson from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布賴恩約翰遜。

Brian, please go ahead and you can unmute.

布萊恩，請繼續，你可以取消靜音。

Testing.

測試。

Can you hear...

你能聽到嗎...

Yes.

是的。

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

Yes.

是的。

No.

不。

It's -- by the way, great to hear there's a team at Tesla, not just a one-person show.

順便說一句，很高興聽到特斯拉有一個團隊，而不僅僅是一個人的表演。

I want to drill down a bit more on FSD.

我想深入了解 FSD。

In December of 2020, in a Business Insider interview in Germany, your leader said that he expected Level 5 autonomy by December -- within a year.

2020 年 12 月，在德國接受 Business Insider 採訪時，您的領導說他預計到 12 月——一年內——實現 5 級自治。

So that would be now.

那就是現在。

Yet we look at the progress in FSD and some of the issues you see on YouTube, and it looks very much like a Level 2, 2 plus system that requires vigilances, in fact, your disclaimers cite.

然而，我們查看了 FSD 的進展以及您在 YouTube 上看到的一些問題，它看起來非常像一個需要警惕的 Level 2, 2 plus 系統，事實上，您的免責聲明引用了這一點。

So I guess 3 questions, kind of one, what is the timetable to get to Level 4 at least capability?

所以我想有 3 個問題，其中一個，至少達到 4 級能力的時間表是什麼？

We can deal with the regulatory stuff later.

我們可以稍後處理監管方面的問題。

Two, what is the criteria, for Zach, for you to release revenue -- deferred revenue around FSD?

二，對於Zach，你發布收入的標準是什麼——圍繞FSD的遞延收入？

And is having a Level 2 system that needs monitoring enough to release that deferred revenue?

是否有一個需要監控的 2 級系統來釋放遞延收入？

And then three, maybe you could talk a little bit more about how you plan to work with the new -- with the folks at NHTSA who appear to be asking some questions.

然後是三個，也許你可以多談談你計劃如何與新的合作——與 NHTSA 的人似乎在問一些問題。

They have 3 requests out to you regarding information around the Level 2, around the capabilities of FSD.

他們向您提出了 3 項關於 2 級信息、FSD 功能的請求。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll take them in order.

我們會按順序處理它們。

It's difficult to be specific on the time lines.

很難在時間線上具體說明。

The Autopilot team is working extremely hard iterating on every version.

Autopilot 團隊非常努力地迭代每個版本。

We are being extremely transparent through the release of this to public customers who are posting information online.

通過向在線發布信息的公眾客戶發布此信息，我們非常透明。

So when you're using full self-driving and you're going through the iterations, you can feel the progress.

因此，當您使用完全自動駕駛並進行迭代時，您可以感受到進步。

And for those who don't have it in their cars, social media is excellent at getting a sense for how that's progressing.

對於那些沒有在車上安裝它的人來說，社交媒體非常擅長了解它的進展情況。

And the team is moving quickly with every iteration, with every update, and they're working very hard on that.

並且團隊在每次迭代和每次更新時都在快速移動，他們為此非常努力。

On your second question about the criteria to release deferred revenue, the way that this works is we have made certain commitments as to what this product can offer at the time that a customer has purchased that.

關於釋放遞延收入的標準的第二個問題，其運作方式是我們已經就該產品在客戶購買時可以提供的內容做出某些承諾。

And so what we have to assess is, have we met those commitments?

所以我們必須評估的是，我們是否履行了這些承諾？

And is the software widely available to folks that we've made those commitments to within a certain geography?

軟件是否廣泛提供給我們在特定地理範圍內做出這些承諾的人們？

And given that FSD is still currently in the beta phase, it's invitation-only and it's limited, we have not deemed that to be appropriate for recognition of deferred revenue.

鑑於 FSD 目前仍處於 Beta 階段，僅限邀請且數量有限，我們認為這不適合確認遞延收入。

And we'll continue to evolve this.

我們將繼續發展這一點。

We'll continue to monitor it within the finance team to see when we get to the milestones in which we're comfortable releasing.

我們將繼續在財務團隊內對其進行監控，以了解何時達到我們可以放心發布的里程碑。

On the NHTSA question, Lars, do you want to take that?

關於 NHTSA 的問題，Lars，你願意接受嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I mean as I said earlier, we always cooperate fully with NHTSA and other regulatory bodies in any sort of investigation they may have, particularly related to ADAS systems.

我的意思是，正如我之前所說，我們始終與 NHTSA 和其他監管機構在他們可能進行的任何類型的調查中充分合作，特別是與 ADAS 系統相關的調查。

When they came out with the standing general order in July, we were quick to respond to that and one of the first and only companies capable of actually meeting the needs of that report.

當他們在 7 月份發布常規一般命令時，我們很快就做出了回應，並且是第一批也是唯一一家能夠實際滿足該報告需求的公司。

We continue to send that information to them as required, weekly and as incidents occur.

我們會繼續根據需要、每周和發生事件時向他們發送該信息。

And with the additional investigations, as I said, we meet that with great sincerity.

正如我所說，隨著更多的調查，我們非常真誠地滿足了這一點。

And we'll work through them one by one to make sure that all the facts come out and that NHTSA is well informed about our strategies for both active safety in this case but also passive safety.

我們將一一研究它們，以確保所有事實都出來，並且 NHTSA 充分了解我們在這種情況下的主動安全策略和被動安全策略。

As you guys may know, we released updates to our airbag and restraint system last week to Model Y using our fleet data.

你們可能知道，我們上週使用我們的車隊數據向 Model Y 發布了安全氣囊和約束系統的更新。

We worked closely with NHTSA on that, and they were fully in the loop before we did it.

我們在這方面與 NHTSA 密切合作，在我們這樣做之前，他們已經完全了解情況。

So I think these kinds of things will continue to happen in the new regulatory space that Zach discussed as we move towards a software-based vehicle.

所以我認為，隨著我們轉向基於軟件的車輛，這些事情將繼續發生在 Zach 討論的新監管領域。

And we're happy to be a part of that journey.

我們很高興成為這一旅程的一部分。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And the next question comes from Trip Chowdhry.

下一個問題來自 Trip Chowdhry。

Very good quarter.

非常好的季度。

I had 2 quick questions.

我有兩個簡單的問題。

First is regarding the 2 upcoming factories in Berlin and Austin.

首先是關於即將在柏林和奧斯汀開設的 2 家工廠。

How are the 2 factories different from each other, maybe in the layout, design, assembly lines?

兩家工廠在佈局、設計、裝配線方面有何不同？

And the second question is related to Cybertruck.

第二個問題與 Cybertruck 有關。

Who is the supplier looking at if you look at the exoskeleton steel?

如果你看外骨骼鋼，供應商在看誰？

Is the supply for that material sufficient for immediate ramp-up, say, in '23, '24 time for Cybertruck?

這種材料的供應量是否足以立即增加 Cybertruck 的產量，例如在 23、24 年？

That's all from me.

這就是我的全部。

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

So obviously, as we've noted in the past, we developed our own stainless-steel grade for the exterior of Cybertruck to meet both the durability and corrosion requirements required for an automotive world.

很明顯，正如我們過去所指出的，我們為 Cybertruck 的外部開發了自己的不銹鋼牌號，以滿足汽車世界所需的耐用性和腐蝕要求。

With this raw material and others, as Drew mentioned, we continue to look at multiple sources.

正如德魯所提到的，對於這種原材料和其他原材料，我們將繼續尋找多種來源。

We have made some early sourcing decisions in that, but I think we'll keep that one internal, and we've already began the first casting-ins of that.

我們已經在這方面做出了一些早期的採購決定，但我認為我們會將其保留在內部，並且我們已經開始了第一批鑄造。

Rolling stainless isn't so different from pulling any other material.

軋製不銹鋼與拉製任何其他材料沒有太大區別。

It's just about how hard the rollers are to get to that hardness level.

這只是滾輪達到該硬度水平的難度。

And just like every manufacturing process we put in for every new vehicle, we'll work with our suppliers and vendors to make sure those time lines and supply meet the need and demand of our customers.

就像我們為每輛新車採用的每一個製造過程一樣，我們將與我們的供應商和供應商合作，以確保這些時間表和供應滿足我們客戶的需求和需求。

And on the differences between Austin and Berlin, there are some.

關於奧斯汀和柏林之間的差異，有一些。

They're largely associated with the different sort of building architectural choices that were -- happened to occur in collaboration with like local codes and other sort of governing requirements that drive the differences in the architecture between the locations.

它們在很大程度上與不同類型的建築架構選擇有關，這些選擇碰巧與類似當地法規和其他類型的管理要求協作發生，這些要求推動了地點之間架構的差異。

In general though, like we're trying to progress the manufacturing system as a system and make sort of logical, like, path to find improvements from factory to factory.

不過，總的來說，就像我們試圖將製造系統作為一個系統來推進，並製定某種合乎邏輯的路徑來尋找從工廠到工廠的改進。

And in some cases, there was an improvement identified between, like, decisions for one, Austin; the other, Berlin; or vice versa.

在某些情況下，在諸如奧斯汀的決定之間確定了改進；另一個，柏林；或相反亦然。

And so there might be a slightly newer iteration of one part of the factory in one place than the other, but they're -- it's all part of a -- like a path forward in the factory that builds the machine -- the machine that builds the machine, sorry.

所以在一個地方的工廠的一個部分可能會比另一個地方稍微更新一些，但它們是——這都是一個——就像製造機器的工廠的前進道路的一部分——機器製造機器，對不起。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

And the last question comes from Jed Dorsheimer from Canaccord.

最後一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Jed Dorsheimer。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We can hear you.

我們能聽到你的聲音。

So Brandenburg, I'm just wondering, Zach, if you could estimate the carry costs from a margin perspective.

所以勃蘭登堡，我只是想知道，扎克，你是否可以從利潤的角度來估計持有成本。

Or I guess in 2 parts.

或者我猜分為兩部分。

So when do you expect -- do you still expect production coming on in '21, so a couple of months left in December?

那麼您預計什麼時候 - 您是否仍然預計在 21 年開始生產，所以 12 月還剩幾個月？

And how do you see that margin impact as a function of the carry cost?

您如何看待作為持有成本函數的利潤率影響？

And I do have a follow-up question.

我還有一個後續問題。

Sure.

當然。

So it remains our target in both Austin and Berlin to be able to build our first production cars before the end of the year.

因此，我們在奧斯汀和柏林的目標仍然是在年底之前製造出我們的第一輛量產車。

We've talked about this a bit, the unknown unknowns, new factories, new vehicle designs, new technologies, new locations, new teams.

我們已經討論了一點，未知的未知數、新工廠、新車輛設計、新技術、新地點、新團隊。

So there is quite an execution journey ahead of us.

因此，我們前面有一段相當長的執行旅程。

But that remains our target and all of our plans are oriented around that.

但這仍然是我們的目標，我們所有的計劃都以此為導向。

We -- for -- we should not expect for us to deliver cars by the end of 2021 from these factories even if we do produce them -- so homologation, regulatory reasons.

我們 - 因為 - 我們不應該期望我們在 2021 年底之前從這些工廠交付汽車，即使我們確實生產了它們 - 所以認證，監管原因。

And we'll want to make sure that we build up some number of cars that we're confident in the quality and the customer experience around them.

我們要確保我們生產出一定數量的汽車，我們對它們的質量和客戶體驗充滿信心。

The second thing that I'll say -- and I mentioned this in my opening remarks, is because of the newness here, it's extremely difficult for us to be precise in what the ramp will look like.

我要說的第二件事——我在開場白中提到了這一點，因為這裡是新的，我們很難準確地確定坡道的樣子。

And it's possible things -- the stars align and things move quickly.

並且有可能發生的事情 - 星星對齊並且事物快速移動。

It's possible that we're spending the bulk of next year working on ramping these factories.

明年我們有可能將大部分時間用於擴建這些工廠。

It's just very hard to say, and we'll continue to update you all through these calls and through other forums.

這很難說，我們將繼續通過這些電話和其他論壇為您提供最新信息。

As to how that then impacts our margins, that is also difficult because that is a function of the ramp, which is uncertain.

至於這如何影響我們的利潤率，這也很困難，因為這是斜坡的函數，這是不確定的。

So the benefit here, which is different in the ramp of these factories compared to other factories, is if you think about the percentage of our total cost structure in any given quarter that is associated with new ramps, we have the Fremont factory that's running, generating stable and growing margins there.

所以這裡的好處是，與其他工廠相比，這些工廠的坡道不同，如果你考慮我們在任何給定季度的總成本結構中與新坡道相關的百分比，我們有正在運行的弗里蒙特工廠，在那裡產生穩定且不斷增長的利潤率。

The same is also true in Shanghai.

在上海也同樣如此。

So I expect we'll see some amount of headwind on margin from these ramps.

所以我預計我們會看到這些斜坡帶來的一些不利影響。

It's just entirely dependent on how quickly we're able to ramp and what uncertainties come up during the process.

這完全取決於我們能夠以多快的速度提升以及在此過程中出現的不確定性。

Sure.

當然。

So on a margin per car -- but I would suspect though if your carry cost is full right now on the -- that as you start producing vehicles, it's going to be a margin lifter from where you're at right now, no?

因此，每輛車的利潤率 - 但我會懷疑，如果您現在的持有成本已滿 - 當您開始生產車輛時，它將成為您現在所處位置的利潤率提升器，不是嗎？

I mean we are carrying some amount of costs associated with the factories today.

我的意思是我們今天承擔了一些與工廠相關的成本。

And so the incremental cost associated with turning the factories, it's not 100% of a factory, if that's what you're getting at in your question.

因此，與轉動工廠相關的增量成本，並不是 100% 的工廠，如果這就是您在問題中所得到的。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

That's what I was getting at.

這就是我的意思。

Yes.

是的。

We also actually saw a very similar dynamic to this when we were launching Model S earlier in the year.

在今年早些時候推出 Model S 時，我們實際上也看到了與此非常相似的動態。

So when a product starts launching and then cost of goods sold starts to activate, depreciation starts to activate, there's a bit of a movement in the P&L as to where that cost resides, so yes, assuming to some extent Brandenburg and Austin costs are already flowing through our P&L.

因此，當產品開始推出，然後銷售成本開始激活，折舊開始激活時，損益表中關於成本所在的位置會有一些變動，所以是的，假設在某種程度上勃蘭登堡和奧斯汀的成本已經流經我們的損益表。

But we still need to continue staffing and ramping and incurring all the operating costs associated with the factory that we're not spending right now.

但是我們仍然需要繼續配備人員並增加和承擔與我們現在沒有花費的工廠相關的所有運營成本。

Fantastic.

極好的。

Thank you very much, everyone, for all your questions, and we'll see you again in 3 months.

非常感謝大家的提問，我們三個月後再見。

Thank you very much, and goodbye.

非常感謝，再見。