使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Tesla First Quarter 2021 Results and Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)
各位女士、先生,大家好,感謝各位的耐心等待,歡迎收看特斯拉 2021 年第一季業績及問答網絡直播。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。(操作說明)
I will now hand the conference over to your speaker today, Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.
現在我將把會議交給今天的主講人,投資者關係高級總監馬丁·維查。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you, Carmen, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's First Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q1 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.
謝謝卡門,大家下午好,歡迎參加特斯拉 2021 年第一季問答網路直播。今天和我一起做客的有伊隆馬斯克、扎卡里柯克霍恩以及其他一些高階主管。我們第一季業績報告於下午1點左右公佈。更新資料中顯示的是太平洋時間,該資料已發佈在與本次網路直播相同的連結中。
During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.
在本次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並發表前瞻性聲明。這些評論是基於我們截至目前為止的預測和預期。由於許多風險和不確定因素,實際事件或結果可能與預期有重大差異,包括我們在最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的那些風險和不確定因素。
(Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?
(操作說明)但在進入問答環節之前,埃隆有一些開場白。埃隆?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Great. Thank you. So Q1 2021 was a record quarter on many levels. Tesla achieved record production, deliveries and surpassed $1 billion in non-GAAP net income for the first time. And we've seen a real shift in customer perception of electric vehicles, and our demand is the best we've ever seen. So this is -- [we're talking about] we're used to seeing a reduction in demand in the first quarter, and we saw an increase in demand that exceeded the normal seasonal reduction in demand in in Q1.
偉大的。謝謝。因此,2021年第一季在許多方面都創下了紀錄。特斯拉實現了創紀錄的產量和交付量,並且首次實現了超過 10 億美元的非 GAAP 淨利潤。我們已經看到消費者對電動車的看法發生了真正的轉變,而且我們的需求也達到了前所未有的最高水準。所以,我們通常在第一季會看到需求下降,但我們看到需求成長超過了第一季正常的季節性需求下降幅度。
So Model 3 became the best-selling midsized premier sedan in the world, in fact, I should say the best-selling luxury sedan of any kind in the world. The BMW 3 Series was for the longest time the best-selling premium sedan, has been exceeded by the Tesla Model 3. And this is only 3.5 years into production and was just 2 factories. For Model 3 to be outselling its combustion engine competitors, I think, is quite remarkable.
因此,Model 3 成為了全球最暢銷的中型豪華轎車,事實上,我應該說,它是全球最暢銷的豪華轎車。BMW3係曾長期是銷量最高的豪華轎車,但如今已被特斯拉Model 3超越。而Model 3上市僅3.5年,只有兩家工廠。我認為,Model 3 的銷量能夠超過其燃油引擎競爭對手,相當了不起。
In the past couple of quarters, we delivered roughly 0.25 million Model 3s, so -- which translates to annualized rate of 0.5 million per year.
在過去的幾個季度裡,我們交付了大約 25 萬輛 Model 3,因此——這相當於每年 50 萬輛的年化率。
When it comes to Model Y, we think Model Y will be the best-selling car or vehicle of any kind in the world and probably next year. So I'm not 100% certain next year, but I think it's quite likely. I'd say more likely than not, that in 2022, Model Y is the best-selling car or truck of any kind in the world.
就Model Y而言,我們認為Model Y將成為世界上最暢銷的汽車或任何類型的車輛,而且很可能是明年。所以明年我不能百分之百確定,但我認為可能性很高。我認為,Model Y 很有可能在 2022 年成為全球最暢銷的汽車或卡車。
Then with regard to Full Self-Driving. Full Self-Driving beta continues to make great progress. It is definitely one of the -- I think one of the hardest technical problems that exists, that's maybe ever existed. And really, in order to solve it, we basically need to solve a pretty significant part of artificial intelligence, specifically real-world artificial intelligence. And that sort of AI, the neural net needs to be compressed into a fairly small computer, a very efficient computer that was designed, but nonetheless, a small computer that's using on the order of 70 or 80 watts. So this is a much harder problem than if you were you, say, 10,000 computers in a server room or something like that.
然後是關於完全自動駕駛的問題。完全自動駕駛測試版持續取得巨大進展。這絕對是──我認為是現存最難的技術難題之一,或許是史上最難的技術難題之一。實際上,為了解決這個問題,我們基本上需要解決人工智慧中相當重要的一部分問題,特別是現實世界的人工智慧問題。這種人工智慧,即神經網絡,需要壓縮到一台相當小的計算機中,一台設計得非常高效的計算機,但儘管如此,它仍然是一台功耗在 70 或 80 瓦左右的小型計算機。所以,這比處理伺服器機房裡的 10,000 台電腦之類的問題要困難得多。
This has got to fit into a [smaller sprain]. And this -- I think with the elimination of radar, we're finally getting rid of one of the last crutches. Radar was really -- it was making up for some of the shortfalls of vision, but this is not good. You actually just need vision to work. And when [beam] works, it works better than the best human because it's like having 8 cameras, it's like having eyes in the back of your head, beside your head and has 3 eyes of different focal distances looking forward. This is -- and processing it at a speed that is superhuman. There's no question in my mind that with a pure vision solution, we can make a car that is dramatically safer than the average [person].
這應該屬於較小的扭傷。而且──我認為隨著雷達的淘汰,我們終於擺脫了最後一支拐杖。雷達確實彌補了視覺的一些不足,但這並不好。其實你只需要有遠見就能工作。當[光束]工作時,它比最好的人類還要好,因為它就像有8個攝像頭,就像在你的後腦勺、頭部兩側各長了一隻眼睛,還有3隻焦距不同的眼睛向前看。這是——而且是以超人的速度處理它。我毫不懷疑,憑藉純粹的視覺解決方案,我們可以製造出比普通人安全得多的汽車。
So -- but it is a hard problem because we are actually solving something quite fundamental about artificial intelligence, where we basically have to solve real-world vision AI. And we are. So -- and key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over 1 million cars on the road that are collecting data from very sort of corner case rare situations -- sort of like so many weird things in the world like a truck carrying a truck or a car with -- one example is like a car as an actual example, a car with the kayak on the roof where the kayak has a little weight dangling from the front of the kayak in front of the car and -- but yet the car must ignore this and just look at the road.
所以——但這確實是一個難題,因為我們實際上是在解決人工智慧中一些非常根本的問題,我們基本上必須解決現實世界的視覺人工智慧問題。沒錯。所以——解決這個問題的關鍵還在於擁有一些龐大的資料集。所以,路上有超過 100 萬輛汽車在收集數據,這些數據來自非常特殊、罕見的情況——就像世界上很多奇怪的事情一樣,比如一輛卡車拉著另一輛卡車,或者一輛汽車——舉個例子,比如一輛汽車,車頂上放著一艘皮划艇,皮划艇前面垂著一點重物——但是汽車卻必須忽略這種情況,只關注路面。
So it's really quite tricky, but I am highly confident that we will get this done. So -- yes. This quarter, and I think we'll continue to see that a little bit in Q2 and Q3. So Q1 was -- had some of the most difficult supply chain challenges that we've ever experienced in the life of Tesla and same difficulties with supply chain, with parts -- over the whole range of parts. Obviously, people have heard about the chip shortage. This is a huge problem. But then in addition to that, for example, we had quite a difficulty scaling, driving our production in China because we're unable to get critical engineers there because of COVID quarantine restrictions. So -- which meant that Tesla worldwide was dependent on drive units made at our factory in Nevada, Giga Nevada. So that was a very challenging situation.
所以這確實相當棘手,但我非常有信心我們能夠完成這項任務。是的。本季度,我認為第二季和第三季我們也會看到這種情況。所以,第一季我們遇到了特斯拉史上最艱難的供應鏈挑戰,零件供應鏈——所有零件——都面臨著同樣的困難。顯然,人們都聽說過晶片短缺的問題。這是一個大問題。但除此之外,例如,由於新冠疫情隔離限制,我們無法讓關鍵工程師前往中國,因此我們在擴大規模、推動中國生產方面遇到了相當大的困難。所以——這意味著特斯拉全球都依賴我們位於內華達州的工廠(內華達超級工廠)生產的驅動單元。所以那是一個非常棘手的情況。
I think we're mostly out of that particular problem. That's just -- those was just 2 of many challenges. So the team has really done an incredible job of dealing with really severe supply chain shortages.
我認為我們基本上已經擺脫了那個問題。那隻是——那隻是眾多挑戰中的兩個。所以,團隊在應對非常嚴重的供應鏈短缺問題上做得非常出色。
So with respect to the Model S and X, there were more challenges than expected in developing the Model S or what we call the Palladium program, which is the new version of Model S and X, which has revised interior and new battery pack and new drive units and new internal electronics and has, for example, a PlayStation 5 level infotainment system. There's just a lot of issues encountered, ensuring that the new factory was, [as also we're saying] was quite hard because we were working more energy in a smaller pace. So it took quite a bit of of development to ensure that the battery of the new S/X is safe. And we're trying to get all the -- in the cars slowly for the past few months. But we're just stacking them up in the yard and just making refinements to the cars that we built. But we do expect to ramp Model S production and start delivering them probably next month. And then to be in sort of fairly high volume production for the X in Q3 and start delivering Model X in Q3 as well.
因此,就 Model S 和 Model X 而言,開發 Model S 或我們稱之為 Palladium 計劃(即 Model S 和 Model X 的新版本,它改進了內飾、配備了新的電池組、新的驅動單元和新的內部電子設備,例如,還配備了 PlayStation 5 級別的信息娛樂系統)所面臨的挑戰比預期的要多。確實遇到了許多問題,確保新工廠順利運作(正如我們所說)相當困難,因為我們需要投入更多的精力,但速度卻更慢。因此,為了確保新款 S/X 的電池安全,需要進行大量的研發工作。過去幾個月,我們一直在努力讓所有這些——慢慢地裝進車裡。但我們只是把它們堆放在院子裡,然後對我們製造的汽車進行改進。但我們預計Model S的產量將會增加,並可能從下個月開始交付。然後,在第三季實現Model X的較高產量,並在第三季開始交付Model X。
So I think as we ramp up, I think probably the demand for the new S/X will be quite high. So it's really just going to be a question of ramping supply chain and internal production processes. So probably, like, we're going to aim to produce over 2,000 S/X per week. Perhaps if we get lucky, upwards of 2,400 or 2,500. This again is contingent on global supply chain issues, which is just a lot of factors outside of our control here. But I do think [these will get solved], so it's just a matter of time, and then we'll be doing well over 2,000 S/X per week. It's a great car. It actually costs us less to produce, a little bit less to produce, but it is a superior product.
所以我認為,隨著我們增加生產力度,新款 S/X 的需求可能會相當高。所以,關鍵在於提升供應鏈和內部生產流程的效率。所以,我們大概會爭取每週生產超過 2000 台 S/X。如果運氣好的話,或許能達到 2400 或 2500 人以上。這又取決於全球供應鏈問題,而這其中有許多因素是我們無法控制的。但我認為這些問題都會解決,所以只是時間問題,到那時我們每週的 S/X 次數將輕鬆超過 2000 次。這是一輛很棒的車。實際上,它的生產成本更低,雖然略低一些,但它是一款更優質的產品。
So in conclusion is there's a lot to be excited about in 2021 and '22. We're building factories as quickly as we can. Both Texas and Berlin are progressing well, and we expect to have initial limited production from those factories this year and volume production from Texas and Berlin next year. At this time, we are continuing to ramp production of Model Y in Fremont and Shanghai. In the background, we're continuing work -- development work on the Semi, Cybertruck, the Roadster and other products. Thanks to everyone at Tesla who made this year a huge success. Now on to questions.
總之,2021年和2022年有很多值得期待的事。我們正在以最快的速度建造工廠。德州和柏林工廠的進展都很順利,我們預計今年這些工廠將實現初步的有限生產,明年德州和柏林工廠將實現大量生產。目前,我們正在弗里蒙特和上海工廠持續提高Model Y的產量。在幕後,我們仍在繼續工作——Semi、Cybertruck、Roadster 和其他產品的研發工作。感謝特斯拉的每一位員工,是你們讓今年取得了巨大的成功。現在進入問答環節。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you very much. We have some remarks from Zachary Kirkhorn as well.
非常感謝。我們還有一些扎卡里·柯克霍恩的評論。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Okay.
好的。
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Yes. Thanks, Martin. Thanks, Elon. So congratulations to the Tesla team on breaking multiple records in the first quarter of '21, as Elon had mentioned, which is typically the most difficult of the year for many reasons.
是的。謝謝你,馬丁。謝謝你,埃隆。因此,正如馬斯克所提到的,祝賀特斯拉團隊在 2021 年第一季打破了多項紀錄,而第一季通常是一年中最艱難的時期,原因有很多。
To summarize the quarter, I think it's best understood by 3 key items. First, we successfully launched and began the ramp of Model Y in Shanghai, achieving positive gross margin in the first quarter of production and receiving a great reception from the market. Second, as Elon mentioned, although we began the production process for the Model S during the quarter, we had not yet begun customer deliveries. The reduction in Model S and X deliveries from Q4 to Q1 were a meaningful headwind to free cash flows and profit generation.
總結本季度,我認為最好透過以下三個關鍵點來理解。首先,我們在上海成功推出Model Y,並開始量產,在生產的第一季就實現了正毛利率,並受到了市場的熱烈歡迎。其次,正如伊隆所提到的那樣,雖然我們在本季開始了 Model S 的生產流程,但我們還沒有開始向客戶交付。Model S 和 Model X 從第四季到第一季的交付量減少,對自由現金流和利潤產生造成了顯著的不利影響。
For example, we incurred an estimated $200 million of direct P&L impact relating to this program in Q1, the majority of which is reflected in COGS and that's before even considering the impact of lost revenue and profits as a result of the transition. And as he mentioned -- as Elon mentioned, we expect the first deliveries to begin shortly.
例如,據估計,該項目在第一季為我們的損益表帶來了 2 億美元的直接影響,其中大部分反映在銷售成本中,這還不包括過渡期間收入和利潤損失的影響。正如他所提到的——正如埃隆所提到的,我們預計首批交付很快就會開始。
Third, as we continue to work through the instability of the global supply chain, particularly around semiconductors and port capacities, while the Tesla team in partnership with our suppliers did tremendous work keeping our factories running, we did experience high expedite costs in the quarter, and they were also higher than they were in Q4, with some minor interruptions to production over the course of the quarter. We believe that this landscape is improving, but it does remain difficult, and it's an evolving situation.
第三,儘管我們仍在努力應對全球供應鏈的不穩定性,特別是半導體和港口運力方面的問題,但特斯拉團隊與供應商合作,為保持工廠運轉做出了巨大努力,我們在本季度確實經歷了較高的加急成本,而且這些成本也高於第四季度,並且在本季度生產過程中出現了一些輕微的中斷。我們認為這種情況正在改善,但仍然很困難,而且情況瞬息萬變。
If we double-click within net income. Auto gross margin, excluding credits, improved sequentially and year-over-year. This is in spite of the cost mentions for S and X and expedites and a reduction in global ASPs as our cost structure as a company is reducing at an even faster pace. So as we look out over the course of the year, we feel optimistic about our gross margin strength, particularly as some of these headwinds we're experiencing start to be resolved.
如果我們雙擊淨收入。不計信貸,汽車業務毛利率較上月及年比均提高。儘管提及了 S 和 X 的成本以及加急服務,並且全球 ASP 有所下降,但我們公司的成本結構正在以更快的速度下降。展望今年,我們對毛利率的強勁表現感到樂觀,尤其是一些我們目前面臨的不利因素開始得到解決。
On services and other margins, these have recovered and are trending towards profitability, aided by strength in the used car business, operational improvements in service and additional service revenue opportunities that help absorb fixed overhead.
在服務和其他利潤方面,這些利潤已經恢復,並正朝著盈利的方向發展,這得益於二手車業務的強勁表現、服務運營的改進以及有助於吸收固定開支的額外服務收入機會。
On energy gross margins, these remained negative for second quarter. This is driven by solar-related ramp costs and winter seasonality in the lease PPA business. We continue to manage through a multi-quarter backlog on Powerwall. We're working as fast as we can to increase production. And this will aid in profitability of this business as those volumes increase.
第二季度,能源產業的毛利率依然為負。這是由於與太陽能發電相關的啟動成本以及租賃購電協議業務的冬季季節性因素。我們仍在努力解決 Powerwall 專案積壓的多個季度的工作。我們正在盡最大努力加快生產速度。隨著銷量增加,這將有助於提高公司的獲利能力。
On operating expenses, these increased for Q1, which is driven by our investments in technology and growth. In particular, for R&D, this includes the structural battery pack and 4680 cells, investments in the new S and X and our neural net and silicon investments.
第一季營運費用增加,這主要是由於我們在技術和成長方面的投資。具體來說,研發方麵包括結構電池組和 4680 電池,對新款 S 和 X 的投資,以及我們在神經網路和矽方面的投資。
On the SG&A side, we're setting up infrastructure and support for both China and EMEA in anticipation of volume to come there. And as I said before, our plans show that we remain on track for sustained industry-leading operating margins.
在銷售、管理及行政費用方面,我們正在為中國和歐洲、中東及非洲地區建立基礎設施和支持,以應對即將到來的業務量。正如我之前所說,我們的計劃表明,我們仍有望保持行業領先的持續營業利潤率。
Double-clicking on cash flows. We continue to generate positive free cash flows, and this was despite the significant working capital headwinds from S and X. Additionally, we are making progress reducing various forms of debt. We also invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin during the quarter, then trimmed our position by 10%, which contributed to a small gain in our Q1 financials.
雙擊現金流。儘管面臨來自S和X的重大營運資本壓力,我們仍持續產生正的自由現金流。此外,我們在降低各類債務方面也取得了進展。本季我們也投資了 15 億美元購買比特幣,然後減持了 10%,這為我們第一季的財務表現帶來了小幅成長。
Taking a step back, we've generated $8 billion in operating cash flows and $4 billion in free cash flows over the past 4 quarters. As we look forward, our plans remain unchanged for long-term growth of 50% annually, and we believe we're on track to exceed that this year as we guided to last quarter. Global demand remains meaningfully higher than production levels. And so we're driving as fast as we can to increase our production rates. As we think about Q2 and Q3, these quarters should largely be driven by execution on S and X, as we've discussed, continued ramp of Model Y in Shanghai and the associated cost reductions of these programs. And we expect profitability and cash generation to evolve over the course of the year in line with those improvements.
回顧過去四個季度,我們創造了 80 億美元的營運現金流和 40 億美元的自由現金流。展望未來,我們仍將保持每年 50% 的長期成長計劃,我們相信,正如上個季度所預測的那樣,我們今年有望超過這一目標。全球需求仍遠高於生產水準。因此,我們正在盡最大努力加快生產速度,以提高生產力。展望第二季度和第三季度,正如我們討論過的,這兩個季度的業績主要取決於S和X車型的執行情況、上海Model Y車型的持續量產以及這些項目相關的成本削減。我們預計,隨著這些改善措施的實施,獲利能力和現金流將在今年內逐步提升。
And then as we get towards the end of the year, our story will pivot towards the launch and ramp of our newest factories in Austin and Berlin. So there's certainly no shortage of exciting things for us to work on and look forward to. Thank you, and we'll open it up for questions.
然後,隨著年底的臨近,我們的故事將轉向我們在奧斯汀和柏林的新工廠的投產和產能提升。所以,我們肯定不乏令人興奮的事情要做,也不乏值得期待的事。謝謝,接下來我們將開放提問環節。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you very much. And we'll first take retail questions from, say, website. The first question is, how is Dojo coming along? Could Dojo unlock an AWS like business line for Tesla over the next few years?
非常感謝。我們首先會回答來自零售方面的問題,例如來自網站的問題。第一個問題是,道場進展如何?未來幾年,Dojo能否為特斯拉開拓類似AWS的業務線?
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Yes. I'll jump in here. So with respect to Dojo...
是的。我來插一句。所以關於道場…
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Sorry, Zach. My apologies. I was on mute.
對不起,扎克。我很抱歉。我當時處於靜音狀態。
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Go ahead, Elon.
請繼續,埃隆。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
So yes, I was just basically saying that the -- although like right now, people think of Tesla as -- a lot will think of Tesla as a car company or as an energy company. I think long term, people will think of Tesla as much as an AI robotics company as we are a car company or an energy company. I think we are developing one of the strongest hardware and software AI teams in the world. Certainly, we appear to be able to use things with full self-driving that others cannot. So if you look at the evolution of what technologies we developed, we developed them in order to solve the problem of self-driving. So we couldn't find a powerful enough neural net [in terms of a] computer. So we designed and built our own.
所以,是的,我基本上就是想說──雖然現在很多人認為特斯拉是一家汽車公司或一家能源公司。我認為從長遠來看,人們會把特斯拉視為一家人工智慧機器人公司,就像我們是一家汽車公司或能源公司一樣。我認為我們正在打造世界上最強大的硬體和軟體人工智慧團隊之一。當然,我們似乎能夠使用一些其他人無法完全自動駕駛的設備。所以,如果你看看我們開發的技術的發展歷程,你會發現我們開發這些技術是為了解決自動駕駛的問題。因此,我們找不到足夠強大的神經網路(就電腦而言)。所以我們自己設計了一套。
The software out there was really quite primitive for this task. And so we built the team from scratch and have been developing what we think is probably the most advanced real-world AI in the world. And then it sort makes sense that this is kind of what needs to happen because the road system is designed for a neural net computer, our brain. Our brain is neural net computer. And it's -- the entire road system is designed for vision with a neural net computer, which is because it's designed for eyes in the brain. And so if you have a system which has very good eyes, you can see in all directions at once, you can see 3 focal points ahead or forward, but it never gets tired. It's never sort of texting. It has redundancy and its reaction time is super human. Then it seems pretty obvious that such a system would achieve an extremely high level of safety, far in excess of the average person.
當時市面上的軟體對於這項任務來說確實非常原始。因此,我們從零開始組建了團隊,並一直在開發我們認為可能是世界上最先進的現實世界人工智慧。這樣看來,這似乎也合情合理,因為道路系統是為神經網路電腦(也就是我們的大腦)設計的。我們的大腦就像一台神經網路電腦。整個道路系統都是利用神經網路電腦進行視覺設計的,因為它是為大腦中的眼睛設計的。因此,如果你有一個擁有非常好的眼睛的系統,你可以同時看到各個方向,你可以看到前方或前面的 3 個焦點,而且它永遠不會疲勞。這絕不是那種模稜兩可的簡訊交流。它具有冗餘設計,反應速度超乎人類。那麼,很明顯,這樣的系統能夠達到極高的安全水平,遠遠超過一般人的安全水平。
So that's what we're doing. Then Dojo is kind of the training part of that. So because we're -- we have over 1 million cars, and perhaps next year, we'll have 2 million cars in active use, providing vast amounts of video training data that then needs to be digested by a very powerful training system. And currently, we use Tesla training software. So we developed a lot of training software, a lot of labeling software to do, to able to do surround video labeling, which is quite tricky. This means all 8 cameras simultaneously at 36 range a second per camera labeling video over time. There wasn't any tool that existed for this, so we developed our own labeling tool.
所以我們正在這樣做。道場就是其中的訓練部分。因為我們擁有超過 100 萬輛汽車,而且明年可能會有 200 萬輛汽車投入使用,這將提供大量的視訊訓練數據,而這些數據需要由一個非常強大的訓練系統進行處理。目前,我們使用特斯拉的培訓軟體。因此,我們開發了大量的訓練軟體和標註軟體,以便能夠進行環繞視訊標註,這相當棘手。這意味著所有 8 個攝影機同時以每秒 36 幀的速度拍攝視頻,並隨時間推移進行標記。當時市面上沒有現成的工具可以實現這個功能,所以我們開發了自己的標籤工具。
Then taking it a step further, obviously, the Holy Grail is auto labeling. So now we're getting quite good at auto labeling, where we do -- where -- that the trainers train the training system and then the system auto labels the data and then the human laborers just need to look at the labeling to confirm that it is correct and perhaps make edits. And then every time an edit is made, that further trains the system. So it's kind of like a flywheel that's just sort of spinning up. And really, the only way to do this is with vast amounts of video data.
更進一步來說,顯然,最終的終極目標是自動貼標籤。現在我們在自動標註方面已經做得相當不錯了,具體做法是:訓練員訓練訓練系統,然後系統自動標註數據,之後人工標註員只需要查看標註結果以確認其正確性,並可能進行一些編輯。每次修改都會進一步訓練系統。所以它就像一個正在高速旋轉的飛輪。而實際上,實現這一目標的唯一方法是利用大量的視訊資料。
So then we need to train this efficiently. So Dojo is really a -- it is a supercomputer optimized for neural net training. We think Dojo will be, probably in order of magnitude, more efficient on, say -- not sure what the exact right metric is, but say, per frame of video, we think it will be an order of magnitude more cost efficient in hardware and in energy usage for a frame of video compared to a GPU-based solution or compared to the next best solution that we're aware of.
所以我們需要有效率地進行訓練。所以 Dojo 實際上是一個——它是一台專為神經網路訓練而優化的超級電腦。我們認為 Dojo 在效率方面可能會高出一個數量級,例如——雖然不確定確切的衡量標準是什麼,但比如說,每幀影片——我們認為與基於 GPU 的解決方案或我們所知的次優解決方案相比,它在硬體和能源使用方面將更具成本效益。
So then possibly that could be used by others. It does seem as though over time -- I mean just an observation, I think basically is the fact that neural net based computing or AI-based computing is and more and more of the compute stack. We -- conventional computing -- well, perhaps heuristics-based computing is still going to be important, still going to be very important, but it will become -- but neural net will become a bigger and bigger portion of compute. So a long story, but I think, yes, probably others will want to use it too, and we will make it available.
那麼,其他人或許也能利用這一點。隨著時間的推移——我的意思是,這只是一個觀察,我認為基本上是神經網路計算或人工智慧計算在計算堆疊中佔據越來越大的比例。我們——傳統運算——嗯,或許基於啟發式的運算仍然很重要,仍然非常重要,但它將會——但神經網路將會成為運算中越來越大的一部分。說來話長,但我認為,是的,可能其他人也想使用它,我們會讓它可用。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Let's go to the second question from retail investors. The recent price changes on solar roof have been discouraging for customers and investors. Could just like share more about solar roof challenges? And if the outlook has changed at all, i.e., 1,000 roofs per week.
我們來看散戶提出的第二個問題。近期太陽能屋頂的價格變動令消費者和投資者感到沮喪。能否多分享一下關於太陽能屋頂面臨的挑戰?如果前景有所改變,即每週 1,000 個屋頂。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Yes. First of all, I should say that the demand for the solar roof remains strong. So despite raising the price, the demand is still significantly in excess of our ability to meet the demand to install the solar roofs. So production is going fine, but we are [curbed] at the installation point. We did find that we basically made some significant mistakes in assessing the difficulty of certain roofs, but the complexity of roofs varies dramatically. Some roofs are to be literally 2 or 3x easier than other roofs. So you just can't have a one-size-fits-all situation. If a roof has a lot of protuberances or if the roof sort of -- the core structure of the roof is rotted out or is it not strong enough to hold the solar roof, then the cost can be double, sometimes 3x what we -- what our initial quotes were. So in those cases, what we obviously opt to do is to refund customers their deposit and -- but what we cannot do is go and just lose a massive amount of money. We just got to provide a refund of the early deposit.
是的。首先,我要說的是,市場對太陽能屋頂的需求仍然強勁。因此,儘管提高了價格,但太陽能屋頂的安裝需求仍然遠遠超過我們滿足需求的能力。所以生產進展順利,但我們在安裝環節時遇到了阻礙。我們發現,我們在評估某些屋頂的難度時犯了一些重大錯誤,但屋頂的複雜程度差異很大。有些屋頂的建造難度比其他屋頂低2到3倍。所以,不能採取一刀切的做法。如果屋頂有很多凸起物,或者屋頂的核心結構腐爛了,或者不夠堅固以支撐太陽能屋頂,那麼成本可能會是我們最初報價的兩倍,有時甚至三倍。所以,在這種情況下,我們顯然會選擇退還客戶的押金——但是我們不能眼睜睜地看著自己損失一大筆錢。我們只需要退還提前支付的訂金。
But that's what is, I think, most important about the solar roof situation, which I tweeted about this past week, is that we're shifting the whole sort of solar situation -- the solar power -- well, basically, solar power situation to there's only 1 product basically -- or there's only 1 configuration. Every house -- we will not sell a house solar without a Powerwall. That solar could either be solar retrofit with conventional panels put on the roof or it can be the Tesla Solarglass Roof. But in all cases, it will have the power to -- technically, this is -- it's actually Powerwall 2 plus, if you will. The plus refers to a higher peak power capability.
但我認為,太陽能屋頂最重要的意義在於,正如我上週在推特上提到的,我們正在改變整個太陽能的現狀——太陽能發電——基本上,太陽能發電的現狀,基本上只剩下一種產品——或者只有一種配置。每棟房子——我們都不會出售沒有配備 Powerwall 的太陽能房屋。這種太陽能可以是屋頂上安裝傳統太陽能板的改造方案,也可以是特斯拉的太陽能玻璃屋頂。但無論如何,它將具備這樣的能力——從技術上講,它實際上是 Powerwall 2 升級版。加號表示更高的峰值功率能力。
So basically, all Powerwalls made since roughly November of last year have a lot more peak power capability than the specification on the website. They have about twice the power capability roughly. It depends on how you count power, but about twice the peak power and about arguably twice the steady-state power of the specification of the website. The energy is the same, but the power is roughly double. And all the installations -- so all installations will have a Powerwall. And the difficulty installation will dramatically -- or the difficulty of the installation will be much less. It will be much easier because the power from the solar roof -- Solarglass Roof or the solar panels will only ever go directly into the Powerwall. And the Powerwall will only ever go between the utility means -- between the utility and the main power panel of the house, which means you never need to touch the main circuit breakers of the house. You never need to touch the house circuit breakers. Effectively, almost every house, therefore, looks the same electrically instead of being a unique work of art and requiring exceptional ability to rewire the main panel.
所以基本上,從去年 11 月左右開始生產的所有 Powerwall 的峰值功率能力都比網站上的規格高得多。它們的功率大約是原來的兩倍。這取決於你如何計算功率,但大約是網站規格中峰值功率的兩倍,可以說也是穩態功率的兩倍。能量相同,但功率大約增加了一倍。所有安裝的設備—也就是說,所有安裝的設備都將配備 Powerwall。安裝難度將大幅降低,或安裝難度會大幅降低。這將容易得多,因為來自太陽能屋頂(太陽能玻璃屋頂)或太陽能電池板的電力只會直接進入 Powerwall。而且,Powerwall 只會連接在公用設施和房屋主配電盤之間,這意味著您永遠不需要觸摸房屋的主斷路器。你根本不需要碰家裡的斷路器。因此,實際上,幾乎每棟房子在電氣方面看起來都一樣,而不是一件獨特的藝術品,重新連接主配電盤也不需要非凡的技能。
So this is extremely important for scalability is. It's the only way to do it, really. And this also means that every solar Powerwall installation that the house, or whatever the case may be, will be its own utility. And so even if all lights go out in the neighborhood, you will still have power. So that gives people energy security.
所以這對可擴展性來說極為重要。這是唯一的辦法,真的。這也意味著,無論房屋或其他場所安裝太陽能儲能係統,每個儲能係統都將擁有自己的公用設施。所以即使整個社區都停電了,你家還是會有電。這樣就能保障人們的能源安全。
And we can also, in working with the utilities, use the Powerwalls to stabilize the overall grid. So let's say that there's a -- like there was in Texas, there was a peak power demand, and the power demand, because the grid lacked the ability to buffer the power, they had to shut down power. There's no power storage. No good point on power storage. However, with a whole bunch of Powerwalls and houses, we can actually buffer the power. And so if the grid needs more power, we can actually then, with the consent, obviously, of the homeowner and in partnership with the utility, we can then actually release power onto the grid to take care of peak power demand.
我們也可以透過與電力公司合作,利用 Powerwall 來穩定整個電網。假設像德克薩斯州一樣,電力需求達到高峰,由於電網缺乏緩衝電力的能力,他們不得不關閉電力供應。沒有儲能裝置。儲能方面沒有亮點。但是,有了大量的 Powerwall 和房屋,我們實際上可以緩衝電力。因此,如果電網需要更多電力,我們實際上可以在徵得房主的同意並與電力公司合作的情況下,向電網釋放電力以滿足高峰電力需求。
So effectively, the Powerwalls can operate as a giant distributed utility. This is profound. I'm not sure how many of you will actually understand this but this is extremely profound and necessary because we are headed towards a world where, as we were just talking about earlier, where people are moving towards electric vehicles. This will mean that the power needs in -- at homes and businesses will increase significantly. We will -- there will need to be a bunch more electricity coming somewhere. In fact, if you go to full renewable electricity, we need about 3x as much electricity as we currently have. So these are rough numbers, but roughly you need twice -- roughly need twice much electricity if all transport goes electric, and they need 3x much electricity if all heating goes electric. So basically, this is a prosperous future, I think, both for Tesla and for the utilities.
因此,Powerwall 實際上可以作為一個巨大的分散式公用設施運作。這意義深遠。我不確定你們當中有多少人能夠真正理解這一點,但這意義深遠且十分必要,因為我們正走向一個正如我們剛才所討論的,人們正在轉向電動車的世界。這意味著家庭和企業的用電需求將顯著增加。我們需要—我們需要從其他地方獲得更多電力。事實上,如果我們完全使用再生能源發電,我們需要的電力大約是目前電力供應量的3倍。所以這些只是粗略的數字,但如果所有交通工具都使用電力,大約需要兩倍的電力;如果所有暖氣都使用電力,大約需要三倍的電力。所以基本上,我認為,無論對特斯拉還是對公用事業公司來說,這都是一個繁榮的未來。
Because -- and in fact, I think this will be very -- if this is not done, the utilities will fail to serve their customers. They won't be able to do it. They won't be able to react fast enough. And we're going to see more and more of what we see, say, in California and Texas of people seeing brownouts and blackouts and the utilities not being able to respond because there's a massive change going on with the transition to electric transport. And we're seeing more extreme weather events. This is a recipe for disaster. So it is very important to have solar and batteries at the local level, at the house.
因為——事實上,我認為這將非常——如果不這樣做,公用事業公司將無法為其客戶提供服務。他們做不到。他們反應不夠快。我們將會看到越來越多像加州和德州那樣的情況,人們會遇到電力供應不足和停電,而公用事業公司卻無法應對,因為向電動交通的轉型帶來了巨大的變化。我們看到極端天氣事件越來越多。這是自取滅亡。因此,在家中安裝太陽能板和蓄電池非常重要。
In addition, it is important to have large battery storage at the utility level, so that solar and wind, which are the main forms of renewable electricity, can be -- that electricity can be stored because sometimes the wind doesn't blow, sometimes it blows wide. Sometimes it blows too much and sometimes it didn't blow enough. But if you have a battery, you can store the energy and provide the energy to the grid as needed. The same goes for solar because, obviously, the sun does not shine at night and sometimes it is very cloudy. And so by having battery storage paired with solar and wind, this is the long-term solution to a sustainable energy future.
此外,在公用事業層面擁有大型電池儲能係統非常重要,這樣才能儲存太陽能和風能(再生能源的主要形式)產生的電力,因為有時無風,有時風力強勁。有時風力過大,有時風力不足。但是,如果你有蓄電池,就可以儲存能量,並根據需要向電網提供能量。太陽能也是如此,因為很顯然,太陽在晚上不會發光,有時陰天很多。因此,將電池儲能與太陽能和風能結合,是實現永續能源未來的長期解決方案。
And as I said, it needs to occur both at the local level and at the utility level. If it doesn't occur at the local level, what will actually be required is a massive increase in power lines in power plants. So they have to put long distance and local power lines all over the place. They'll have to increase the size of the substations, is a nightmare. This must occur. There must be solar plus battery. That's the only way. So yes.
正如我所說,這需要在地方層級和公用事業層面同時發生。如果地方層級無法實現,那麼真正需要的就是在發電廠大幅增加輸電線路。所以他們必須在各地架設長途和本地電力線路。他們不得不擴大變電站的規模,這簡直是一場惡夢。這必鬚髮生。必須配備太陽能電池和蓄電池。這是唯一的辦法。是的。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you very much. And the next retail question is, master of coin, can you tell us anything about Tesla's future plans in digital currency space or when any such major developments might be revealed?
非常感謝。下一個零售業的問題是,貨幣大師,您能否透露一下特斯拉在數位貨幣領域的未來計劃,或者何時會公佈任何此類重大進展?
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Sure. Thanks, Martin. So as I noted in our opening remarks and we've announced previously, so Tesla did invest $1.5 billion into bitcoin in Q1, and then we subsequently sold a 10% stake in that. We also allow customers to make vehicle deposits and final vehicle purchases using bitcoin. And so where our Bitcoin story began, maybe just to share a little bit of context here. Elon and I were looking for a place to store cash that wasn't being immediately used, trying to get some level of return on this, but also preserve liquidity. Particularly as we look forward to the launch of Austin and Berlin and uncertainty that's happening with semiconductors and port capacity, being able to access our cash very quickly is super important to us right now. And there aren't many traditional opportunities to do this or at least that we found and in talking to others that we could get good feedback on, particularly with yields being so low and without taking on additional risk or sacrificing liquidity. And Bitcoin seemed at the time and so far has proven to be a good decision. A good place to place some of our cash that's not immediately being used for daily operations or maybe not needed till the end of the year and be able to get some return on that.
當然。謝謝你,馬丁。正如我在開場白中提到的,以及我們之前宣布的那樣,特斯拉在第一季向比特幣投資了 15 億美元,隨後我們出售了其中 10% 的股份。我們也允許客戶使用比特幣支付車輛定金和最終購買車輛。所以,我們的比特幣故事就此開始,或許在這裡分享一些背景資訊。伊隆和我當時正在尋找一個地方來存放暫時不用的現金,希望能從中獲得一些收益,同時也保持流動性。尤其是在我們期待奧斯汀和柏林港的投產,以及半導體和港口容量方面存在的不確定性的情況下,能夠迅速獲得現金對我們來說現在至關重要。而且,目前並沒有很多傳統的機會可以做到這一點,或者至少我們是在與其他人交談後才發現的,並且我們能夠獲得良好的反饋,尤其是在收益率如此之低的情況下,而且無需承擔額外的風險或犧牲流動性。當時看來,投資比特幣似乎是個明智的決定,而且到目前為止,事實證明也確實如此。對於一些暫時不用於日常營運或可能要到年底才需要的現金來說,這是一個不錯的存放地點,而且還能獲得一些回報。
And I think one of the key points that I want to make about our experiences in the digital currency space is that there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic here. We're certainly watching it very closely at Tesla, watching how the market develops, listening to what our customers are saying. But thinking about it from a corporate treasury perspective, we've been quite pleased with how much liquidity there is in the bitcoin market. So our ability to build our first position happened quickly. When we did the sale later in March, we also were able to execute on that very quickly.
我認為關於我們在數位貨幣領域的經驗,我想強調的關鍵一點是,這裡有很多理由讓我們保持樂觀。我們特斯拉當然會密切關注市場動態,觀察市場發展,並傾聽客戶的意見。但從企業財務的角度來看,我們對比特幣市場的流動性感到非常滿意。因此,我們很快就建立了第一個市場地位。三月晚些時候進行出售時,我們也能夠非常迅速地完成交易。
And so as we think about kind of global liquidity for the business in risk management, being able to get cash in and out of the market is something that I think is exceptionally important for us. So we do believe long term in the value of bitcoin. So it is our intent to hold what we have long term and continue to accumulate bitcoin from transactions from our customers as they purchase vehicles.
因此,當我們考慮業務的全球流動性以及風險管理時,能夠自由地將現金流入和流出市場,我認為這對我們來說至關重要。所以我們確實看好比特幣的長期價值。因此,我們打算長期持有我們擁有的比特幣,並繼續從客戶購買車輛的交易中累積比特幣。
Specifically with respect to things we may do, there are things that we're constantly discussing. We're not planning to make any announcements here, and we're watching this space closely. So when we're ready to make an announcement on this front, if there's one to come, we'll certainly let you all know.
具體來說,關於我們可能要做的事情,有一些事情是我們一直在討論的。我們目前不打算在此發布任何公告,我們將密切關注事態發展。所以,當我們準備好就此發佈公告時(如果有的話),我們一定會通知大家的。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. And the fourth question from retail investors is, does Tesla have any proactive plans to tackle mainstream media's imminent, massive and deceptive click-based headline campaigns on safety of autopilot or FSD for a specialty PR job of some sort?
謝謝。散戶投資者提出的第四個問題是,特斯拉是否有任何積極主動的計劃來應對主流媒體即將發起的、大規模的、具有欺騙性的、以點擊量為導向的關於自動駕駛或 FSD 安全性的標題宣傳活動,以進行某種形式的專業公關工作?
Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering
Well, I can -- I'll take this one, guys. From the safety side, I continue to say -- Elon, drive the point and I'll -- go ahead, Elon.
好吧,我可以——我來做這個吧,夥計們。從安全角度來說,我還是要說──埃隆,你來開路,我──你來吧,埃隆。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
I think -- no, please go ahead. I think it's just worth going through the facts of the -- what -- I mean, specifically, there were -- there was an article regarding a tragedy where there was a high-speed in Tesla. But -- and there was really just extremely deceptive media practices where it was claimed to be Autopilot where this is completely false. And those journalists should be ashamed of themselves. Please go ahead, Lars.
我覺得——不,請繼續。我認為有必要了解事情的真相——我的意思是,具體來說,有一篇文章報導了一起特斯拉高速行駛引發的悲劇。但是——而且媒體確實存在極其具有欺騙性的做法,聲稱這是自動駕駛功能,但這完全是錯誤的。這些記者應該感到羞恥。請繼續,拉爾斯。
Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering
Yes. Thanks, Elon. So I was just saying, we're committed to safety in all our designs, and that's number 1 in what we do here.
是的。謝謝你,埃隆。我剛才說的是,我們致力於在所有設計中貫徹安全理念,這是我們工作的首要任務。
Regarding the crash in Houston, specifically, we worked directly with the local authorities, NTSB and NHTSA, wherever applicable and whenever they reach out to us for help directly on the engineering level and whatever else we can support.
關於休士頓的事故,具體來說,我們與當地政府、美國國家運輸安全委員會 (NTSB) 和美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 直接合作,在適用的情況下,只要他們聯繫我們尋求工程方面的幫助以及其他任何我們能夠提供的支持,我們都會提供幫助。
In that vein, we did a study with them over the past week to understand what happened in that particular crash. And what we've learned from that effort was that Autosteer did not and could not engage on the road condition that -- as it was designed. Our adaptive cruise control only engage when a driver was buckled in about 5 miles per hour. And it only accelerated to 30 miles per hour with the distance before the car crashed. As well adaptive cruise control disengage the cars fully to complete to a stop when the driver's seatbelt was unbuckled. Through further investigation of the vehicle and accident remains, we inspected the car with NTSB and NHTSA and the local police and were able to find that the steering wheel was indeed deformed so there must -- leading to a likelihood that someone was in the driver's seat at the time of the crash and all seatbelts post crash were found to be unbuckled. We're unable to recover the data from the SD card at the time of impact, but the local authorities are working on doing that, and we await their report.
基於此,我們在過去一周與他們進行了一項研究,以了解那次事故的具體情況。我們從那次嘗試中了解到,自動轉向功能在設計之初的路況下無法啟動。我們的自適應巡航控制系統只有在駕駛員係好安全帶且車速達到約 5 英里/小時時才會啟動。在撞車前的這段距離內,它的加速幅度僅為每小時 30 英里。此外,當駕駛解開安全帶時,自適應巡航控制系統會完全解除車輛的鎖定,直到車輛完全停止。透過對車輛和事故殘骸的進一步調查,我們與美國國家運輸安全委員會 (NTSB)、美國國家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 和當地警方一起檢查了這輛車,發現方向盤確實變形了,因此很可能在碰撞發生時有人坐在駕駛座上,而且碰撞後發現所有安全帶都未係好。事故發生時,我們無法從 SD 卡中恢復數據,但當地政府正在努力恢復,我們等待他們的報告。
As I said, we continue to hold safety in a high regard and look to improve our products in the future through this kind of data and other information from the field.
正如我所說,我們始終高度重視安全,並希望透過這類數據和來自現場的其他信息,在未來改進我們的產品。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to the next question from institutional investors. The first question is, proponents of alternative grid storage technologies claim that lithium-ion is unsuited for long-term storage at scale due to vampire drain. Could 4680 cells address this limitation? Is the limitation even relevant for charging the energy equation?
好的。非常感謝。接下來我們來看機構投資人提出的下一個問題。第一個問題是,替代電網儲能技術的支持者聲稱,由於吸血鬼損耗,鋰離子電池不適合大規模長期儲能。4680個細胞能否解決此限制?這個限制對於能量方程式的計算是否有意義?
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. Just let me jump in on the vampire drain. That's definitely not the issue. Good lithium ion cell self discharges less than 0.001% of its energy per day. So it's -- this vampire drain is maybe not that...
是的。讓我加入吸血鬼的行列吧。那絕對不是問題所在。優質鋰離子電池每天的自放電量小於其能量的0.001%。所以——這個吸血鬼排水管或許不是如此…
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
I just love they call it vampires.
我太喜歡他們把吸血鬼叫做吸血鬼了。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. Yes, I think the challenge with seasonal storage is your value proposition drops from hundreds of useful full cycles per year to less than maybe 10 or maybe even less than 5 cycles per year. So it's just a different type of technology altogether that would make sense, given that it's more than an order of magnitude, different use case.
是的。是的,我認為季節性儲存的挑戰在於,其價值主張從每年數百個有效的完整週期下降到每年可能不到 10 個,甚至可能不到 5 個週期。所以,這完全是一種不同的技術,考慮到它與現有技術相差一個數量級以上,這種技術就顯得合理了。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Yes. We've got a long way to go before we're dealing with seasonal technology issues. But certainly a way to deal with seasonal technology would be to have wind and solar erring on the side of more [sublay] latitude and -- but then across a variety of longitude. So essentially, like let's say, in the U.S., for example, if there was a -- I'm not sure if you'll understand this, you can actually power the entire United States with just sort of 100 -- roughly a 100-mile -- by a 100-mile grid of solar. Some people don't quite understand like, well, how much solar is needed to power the United States. Almost nothing of the (inaudible) of almost any country in the world.
是的。在解決季節性技術問題之前,我們還有很長的路要走。但應對季節性技術的一種方法是讓風能和太陽能傾向於更偏向[次緯度],並且—但跨越各種經度。所以,比如說,在美國,如果有一個——我不確定你是否能理解——實際上,你只需要一個大約 100 英里的太陽能電網就能為整個美國供電。有些人不太明白,例如,美國需要多少太陽能才能滿足電力需求。世界上幾乎任何國家的(聽不清楚)幾乎沒有任何東西。
The solar incident is a gigawatt per square kilometer. This is insane. In fact, you took the clear area, just the area or saying for nuclear power plants, the area that is considered not usable because of a nuclear power plant is there, in most cases, if you just put solar there, it would generate more power than the nuclear power plant because they typically have pretty wide clear areas. So it really -- so if you have, say, 25% efficient solar panels and then those are 80% efficient in how they laid out, you're going to do about 200 megawatts per square kilometer. Therefore, [5 straight] kilometers is a gigawatt, which might be a typical sort of power plant. It's really not much area at all. And a lot of places can have wind and solar in place.
太陽輻射量為每平方公里1吉瓦。這太瘋狂了。事實上,你利用了那片空地,或者說核電站的空地,也就是因為核電站而被認為無法使用的區域,在大多數情況下,如果你在那裡安裝太陽能發電系統,它產生的電力會比核電站更多,因為核電站通常擁有相當廣闊的空地。所以,如果你有效率為 25% 的太陽能板,而且它們的佈局效率為 80%,那麼你每平方公里就能產生大約 200 兆瓦的電力。因此,[5公里直線距離]就是1吉瓦,這可能是典型的發電廠。面積其實很小。很多地方都可以發展風能和太陽能。
So anyway, it's entirely possible to power all of earth with a small percentage of earth's area. And then to transfer that power through high-voltage DC lines with no new technology. No -- you don't need like room temperature superconductors. This another room temperature superconductors. This is a total -- also another myth. Room temperature superconductors, almost irrelevant, in my opinion, almost irrelevant. Low-cost, long-distance power lines using copper or aluminum is very important. So heating is [ice where are]. So that's current square type of resistance. So as you increase voltage, you can drop the current dramatically and drop the heating dramatically to the point where it is of minor relevance, like maybe you lose 5% to 7% with a high-voltage DC power line, something like that.
總之,完全有可能用地球表面積的一小部分來為整個地球提供能源。然後,無需任何新技術,就能透過高壓直流輸電線路傳輸電力。不——你不需要室溫超導體。這是另一種室溫超導體。這完全是——又一個謬論。室溫超導體,在我看來,幾乎無關緊要,幾乎無關緊要。使用銅或鋁的低成本長距離輸電線路非常重要。所以暖氣是[冰在哪裡]。所以這就是目前的方波電阻。因此,隨著電壓的升高,電流和發熱量都會大幅下降,以至於發熱量可以忽略不計,例如,高壓直流輸電線路的損耗可能只有 5% 到 7%,諸如此類。
So I want to be clear. (inaudible) no new materials are necessary. We just need to scale this thing up. We -- the technologies exist today to solve renewable energy. And some people will say, well, why don't we do it? That's because the energy basis of the earth is gigantic, super mega insanely gigantic. So you can't just go and do 1 zillion terawatts overnight. You've got to build the production capacity for the cells, for the battery cells, for the solar cells. You've got to put that into vehicles. You've got to put that into (inaudible) storage packs. You've got to put that into solar panels and Solarglass Roofs, and you've got to deploy all this thing -- all this stuff.
所以我想把話說清楚。(聽不清楚)不需要新材料。我們只需要擴大規模。我們—目前已有技術可以解決再生能源問題。有些人會說,那我們為什麼不做呢?那是因為地球的能量基礎非常巨大,超級巨大,簡直難以置信的巨大。所以你不可能一夕之間就完成 1 兆太瓦的發電量。你必須建立電池、蓄電池、太陽能電池的生產能力。你得把那些東西裝進車輛裡。你得把那東西放進(聽不清楚)收納袋裡。你必須把這些錢投入到太陽能電池板和太陽能玻璃屋頂中,你必須部署所有這些東西——所有這些東西。
But it is certainly the case that we can accelerate this. And we should try to accelerate it. And the right thing to do, I think, from an economic standpoint, and I think an economist to agree is to have a common tax, just as we have a tax on cigarettes and alcohol, which we think are more likely to be bad than good, and we tend to tax fruit and vegetables less. It was the same should be true. We should tax energy that we think is probably bad and support energy we think is probably good, just like cigarettes and alcohol versus fruits and vegetables. This is common sense.
但我們完全可以加快這一進程。我們應該努力加快這一進程。我認為,從經濟角度來看,正確的做法(我想經濟學家也會同意)是徵收統一的稅,就像我們對香菸和酒精徵稅一樣,因為我們認為香菸和酒精弊大於利,而我們對水果和蔬菜的徵稅較少。情況本來就該如此。我們應該對我們認為可能有害的能源徵稅,並支持我們認為可能有益的能源,就像對香菸和酒精對水果和蔬菜徵稅一樣。這是常識。
And -- but I guess on the plus side, I'm not suggesting anyone be complacent. But sustainable energy, renewable energy will be sold, it is being sold, but it matters how fast we sold it. And if we sold it faster, that's better for the world. There's no question in my mind whatsoever that the energy storage problem can be solved with lithium-ion batteries, zero. I want to be clear, zero.
但我想從正面的一面來看,我並不是建議任何人自滿。但是永續能源、再生能源將會銷售,而且正在銷售,但關鍵在於我們銷售的速度。如果我們能更快賣出去,這對世界更有利。我毫不懷疑,儲能問題完全可以用鋰離子電池解決,一點也不懷疑。我想明確一點,零。
I think the bias will tend to be towards iron-based lithium-ion cells. When we say lithium-ion, you will think lithium must be a big constituent of the cells. It's more like 1% to 2% of the cell is lithium. But the main part of the cell is the cathode, the main mass and cost in the cells is the cathode. For high-energy cells, like for example, what we use in most -- most Teslas have nickel-based lithium-ion cells, which have higher energy density, longer range than iron-based cells. However, stationary storage, the energy density is not as important because it's just staying on the ground. And so I think the vast majority of stationary storage will be iron-based lithium-ion cells with an iron phosphate cathode technically. But I think the phosphate part is unnecessary, so is the iron ore nickel. I'm destroying the terminology. Just think of it as iron and nickel. And there's an insane amount of iron in the world, more iron than we could possible use. And there's also more lithium than we could possibly use. Basically, there is no shortage of anything whatsoever in iron plus base lithium-ion cells.
我認為人們的偏好會傾向於鐵基鋰離子電池。當我們說鋰離子電池時,你可能會認為鋰一定是電池的主要成分。電池中鋰的含量大概只有 1% 到 2%。但電池的主要部分是陰極,電池的主要品質和成本都集中在陰極。對於高能量電池,例如我們大多數特斯拉汽車使用的電池——大多數特斯拉汽車都採用鎳基鋰離子電池,其能量密度更高,續航里程比鐵基電池更長。然而,對於固定式儲能而言,能量密度並不那麼重要,因為它只是留在地面上。因此,我認為絕大多數固定式儲能裝置將採用鐵基鋰離子電池,從技術上講,其正極材料為磷酸鐵。但我認為磷酸鹽部分是不必要的,鐵礦石鎳也是不必要的。我正在顛覆這些術語。你就把它想像成鐵和鎳。世界上鐵的儲量極為龐大,遠超過我們實際需要的量。而且鋰的儲量也遠超過了我們實際所需。基本上,鐵基鋰離子電池中沒有任何物質短缺。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you very much. Let's go to the next question from institutional investors, which is you suggested that between a 5x to 10x improvement is achievable in the automotive production versus the first Model 3 line on the first principles physics analysis. Where does Berlin sit relative to that limit?
非常感謝。讓我們來看看機構投資者提出的下一個問題,您曾表示,根據第一原理物理分析,汽車生產效率與第一條 Model 3 生產線相比,可以實現 5 倍到 10 倍的提升。柏林相對於這個邊界的位置在哪裡?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
I think we're still quite far away from it. I mean the thing to bear in mind with production is -- for those who've never done production, they just don't understand how insanely hard production is. I want to really be very, very emphatic here. Prototypes are trivial, they're child's play. Production is hard, is very hard. Now you say production at large scale with higher liability and low cost, insanely difficult. But Tesla achieved on the automotive side was not to create an electric car. The truly profound thing on the car side is that Tesla was the first American car company to achieve volume production of a car in 100 years and not go bankrupt.
我認為我們離目標還很遠。我的意思是,在製作過程中需要記住的一點是——對於那些從未從事過製作的人來說,他們根本不明白製作有多艱難。我在這裡要非常非常強調一下。原型製作很簡單,簡直是小兒科。生產很難,非常難。現在你說要大規模生產,同時承擔更高的責任並降低成本,這簡直難如登天。但特斯拉在汽車領域的成就並非在於製造電動車。在汽車領域,真正意義深遠的是,特斯拉是100年來第一家實現汽車量產、沒有破產的美國汽車公司。
So this is -- this -- basically, myself and many others at Tesla had to basically have several aneurysms to get this done. It was so hard to have no idea. So anyway -- and the thing about making a large complex manufacturing object is, let's say you have first-order approximation, 10,000 unique items. And even one of those items is slow, that says you wait, just one. Doesn't matter how -- so trivial. We've had production stop because of carpet in the trunk. We've had production stop because of a USB cable. At one point, for Model S, the -- we literally raided every electronics store in the Bay Area. For a few days there, nobody could buy a USB cable in the Bay Area because we went and bought them all to put them in the car, literally.
所以,基本上,我和特斯拉的許多其他人為了完成這件事,簡直是經歷了無數次的痛苦掙扎。一無所知的感覺太難熬了。總之——製造大型複雜製造物件的問題在於,假設你有一個初步的近似值,10,000 個獨特的專案。即使其中一項任務進展緩慢,也意味著你需要等待,就一項。方法並不重要——這太微不足道了。由於後車箱裡的地毯問題,我們的生產一度停滯。由於一條USB線的問題,我們的生產一度停滯。為了買Model S,我們一度幾乎把舊金山灣區所有的電子產品商店都掃蕩了一遍。那幾天,灣區根本買不到 USB 線,因為我們把它們全都買回家放在車上了。
And there's like hundreds of stories like that. So anyway, that -- solving that -- those constraints and a logistics problem that makes World War II look trivial. I'm not kidding. Like the scale is insane. We're talking millions of cars, massive global supply chain, 50 countries, dozens of regulatory regimes. It's insane. So yes.
像這樣的故事還有成百上千個。總之,解決這些限制和物流問題,會讓第二次世界大戰看起來微不足道。我沒開玩笑。這規模簡直太瘋狂了。我們談論的是數百萬輛汽車、龐大的全球供應鏈、50個國家、數十個監管體系。太瘋狂了。是的。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Thank you. And last question from an institutional investor is master plan part 2 talks about an urban transport vehicle that is smaller than traditional bus with greater aerial density achieved by removing the central aisle. Do you have any updates to share on this goal?
謝謝。機構投資者提出的最後一個問題是,總體規劃第二部分談到了一種比傳統公車更小的城市交通工具,透過移除中央通道實現了更高的空中密度。關於這個目標,有什麼最新進展可以分享嗎?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Not at this time.
目前還沒有這個計劃。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Okay. Thank you very much. So let's move to analyst Q&A.
好的。非常感謝。接下來進入分析師問答環節。
Operator
Operator
First question is from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.
第一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
I'd love to get actually based on what you presented on the Battery Day. In the last 6, 7 months, I want -- I was wondering how much progress you've made on that front, first, in terms of process development. So how are things coming together on your pilot line? Are you getting to the kind of production throughput you were aiming for?
我非常希望能夠根據您在電池日上展示的內容進行實際操作。在過去的 6、7 個月裡,我想知道你們在這方面取得了多大的進展,首先是在流程發展方面。那麼,你們的試生產線進展如何?你們的生產吞吐量是否達到預期目標了?
And second and actually on your production ramp. So I was wondering in which sites you're ramping production capacity for the 4680 cell and where you stand on ramping up that capacity as well. And I have a quick follow-up on energy as well if that's possible.
其次,實際上,在你的生產爬坡階段。所以我想知道你們在哪些工廠正在提高 4680 電池的產能,以及你們在提高該產能方面進展如何。如果可以的話,我還想就能源方面快速補充一點。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Well, so we have the -- and Drew can add to this. But we have the -- a small sort of pilot plant, which is still big by normal standards, expected to have like a 10-gigawatt hour per year capability in Fremont, California. And we made quite a few cells. We're not quite yet at the point where we think the cells are reliable enough to be shipped in cars, but we're getting close to that point. And then we've already ordered most of the equipment for battery production in Berlin and then much of it for Austin as well. So we really don't flick the nitty-gritty elements. But overall, I think we still feel quite optimistic about this achieving volume production of the 4680 next year. What do you think?
好的,所以我們有——德魯可以補充一些內容。但我們有一個——一個小型試驗工廠,以正常標準來看仍然很大,預計在加州弗里蒙特每年將有 10 吉瓦時的生產能力。我們製造了相當多的細胞。我們目前還沒有達到認為電池足夠可靠可以用於汽車運輸的程度,但我們正在接近那個階段。而且我們已經為柏林的電池生產訂購了大部分設備,也為奧斯汀訂購了大部分設備。所以我們其實不注意那些細枝末節的細節。但總的來說,我認為我們仍然對明年實現 4680 的量產感到非常樂觀。你怎麼認為?
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes, thanks. Just one thing I would add is there's been a lot of questions about yields. Actually, I noticed people asking about that. The yield progress has been really strong every day, and we were really still in commissioning phase. We were really still in commissioning phase with most of the tools to the point where we're confident that the yield trajectory aligns with our internal cost projections. We did talk about yield also at Battery Day, which is one of the reasons why it's useful to check in on that. It takes a while, as Elon just mentioned, to go from prototype to production. And it's not just parts. It's processes, it's equipment. But as we've matured the process equipment, we've gotten to where we need to be on the yield side.
好的,謝謝。我還要補充一點,大家對產量有很多疑問。事實上,我注意到有人問過這個問題。每天的產量提升都非常強勁,而我們實際上還處於調試階段。目前我們大部分工具仍處於調試階段,但我們確信產量軌跡與我們的內部成本預測相符。我們在電池日上也討論過良率,這也是為什麼檢查良率很有用的原因之一。正如伊隆剛才提到的,從原型到量產需要一段時間。而且不僅僅是零件。是流程,是設備。但隨著製程設備的日趨成熟,我們在產量方面已經達到了我們所需的水平。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Yes. And basically, this is just a guess because we don't know for sure, but it appears as though we're about 12 -- probably not more than 18 months away from volume production of the 4680. Now at the same time, we are actually trying to have our cell supply of partners ramp up their supply as much as possible. So this is not something that is to the exclusion of suppliers. It is in conjunction with suppliers. So we want to be super clear about that. This is not about replacing suppliers. It is about supplementing the suppliers.
是的。基本上,這只是一個猜測,因為我們不能確定,但看起來我們距離 4680 的批量生產還有大約 12 個月——可能不超過 18 個月。同時,我們也在努力讓我們的合作夥伴盡可能地提高細胞供應量。所以這並不是將供應商排除在外的事情。這是與供應商合作進行的。所以,我們想把這一點說得非常清楚。這並非要更換供應商。這是為了補充供應商。
So -- and we have a very strong partnership with CATL, with Panasonic and LG. And we would -- our request to our strategic partners for cell supply is please make us -- please supply us with as much as you possibly can. Provided the price is affordable, we will buy everything that they can make.
所以——我們與寧德時代、松下和LG建立了非常牢固的合作關係。我們向策略夥伴提出的電池供應要求是:請盡可能多地向我們供應電池。只要價格合適,他們生產的所有產品我們都會買。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. Yes. And specific to that, we're on track to more than double the supplier capacity over the next [l3].
是的。是的。具體來說,我們預計在未來[l3]年內將供應商產能提高一倍以上。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Yes, exactly. We do expect from suppliers willing to receive double the cell output next year versus this year.
是的,正是如此。我們期望供應商明年能夠獲得比今年翻倍的電池產量。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes.
是的。
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure
Okay. And I had a quick follow-up on maybe, Zach, for you on your energy business. So I understand like the negative gross margin with Solar Roof ran. But I was wondering what do gross margin look like there when you look at the storage business and where you -- what's your ambition in terms of gross margin in that business as, I guess, it's going to grow in the mix in coming years. So it's important for long-term modeling.
好的。扎克,我可能想就你的能源業務跟進一下。所以我了解到太陽能屋頂的毛利率為負。但我很想知道,當你審視倉儲業務時,毛利率會是什麼樣的,以及你對這項業務的毛利率有什麼目標,因為我認為它在未來幾年會在業務組合中佔據越來越重要的地位。因此,它對長期建模很重要。
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Yes. We're seeing a lot of...
是的。我們看到很多…
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
We're aiming for comparable margins in storage as in vehicle. But it is important to bear in mind that vehicle is more mature than the storage. So -- we're already are at margins with the Powerwall. But some additional work is needed for the Megapack to achieve good margins. Yes, Drew, what do you think?
我們的目標是使倉儲業務的利潤率與車輛業務的利潤率相當。但要注意的是,車輛比存放車輛的設施更成熟。所以——我們在 Powerwall 方面已經達到了損益平衡點。但 Megapack 還需要做一些額外的工作才能獲得良好的利潤率。德魯,你覺得怎麼樣?
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes. Sorry, just jumping in, Elon. Absolutely agree. Powerwall is mature. We've been producing Powerwall 2 for 3 years now and we're at good margins there. But Megapack has more room to go to achieve our targets.
是的。不好意思,插一句,伊隆。完全同意。Powerwall 已經非常成熟。我們生產 Powerwall 2 已經 3 年了,利潤率很高。但 Megapack 距離實現我們的目標還有更大的提升空間。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
We have a clear runway for improving the cost per the megawatt hour of the Megapack.
我們有很大的提升空間,可以降低 Megapack 每兆瓦時的成本。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Absolutely. Yes, we do.
絕對地。是的,我們有。
Operator
Operator
From Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.
來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。
Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst
Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst
I was hoping maybe just, first, you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the rollout of version 9 of FSD and the transition to the subscription model. It sounds like some of this is about to roll out next month. I'm not sure if that's the subscription model, but maybe you could just spend a little time talking about how impactful you expect that to be.
我希望,首先您能談談您對FSD第9版的推出以及向訂閱模式過渡的看法。聽起來其中一些內容下個月就要推出了。我不確定這是否是訂閱模式,但或許您可以花點時間談談您預期這種模式會產生多大的影響。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
So go ahead, guys.
那就開始吧,夥計們。
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Yes, we're working on getting FSD subscription out. There's a couple of internal technical dependencies, but from a business model perspective, that's aligned, and we're hoping to roll that out soon. The key thing that I say here, there's a lot of potential for recurring revenue based on FSD subscription. If you look at the size of our fleet and you look at the number of customers who did not purchase FSD upfront or on a lease and maybe want to experiment with FSD, this is a great option for them.
是的,我們正在努力推出FSD訂閱服務。雖然存在一些內部技術依賴,但從商業模式的角度來看,這是一致的,我們希望盡快推出。我在這裡要強調的關鍵一點是,基於 FSD 訂閱的經常性收入有很大的潛力。如果你看看我們車隊的規模,再看看那些沒有預先購買或租賃 FSD 服務,但可能想嘗試 FSD 服務的客戶數量,這對他們來說是一個很好的選擇。
One of the things we'll need to keep an eye on is a potential transition from cash purchases of FSD subscription over to -- or cash purchases of FSD who may move over to FSD subscription. And so there could be a period of time in which cash reduces in the near term and then as the portfolio of subscription customers builds up, then that becomes a pretty strong business for us over time. But we're hoping to get this launched pretty soon and see what the response is to it.
我們需要關注的事情之一是,從現金購買 FSD 訂閱服務過渡到——或者說,現金購買 FSD 的用戶可能會轉向 FSD 訂閱服務。因此,短期內現金可能會減少一段時間,但隨著訂閱客戶群的不斷壯大,隨著時間的推移,這將成為我們一項非常強勁的業務。但我們希望盡快推出這款產品,看看市場反應如何。
Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst
Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst
Okay. Great. And I was hoping, Zach, maybe you can just talk a little bit about OpEx. There was a noticeable increase, even excluding SBC. Obviously, a lot going on this quarter, but can you maybe just talk a little bit about how we should be thinking about that going forward?
好的。偉大的。札克,我希望你能稍微談談營運支出(OpEx)。即使不考慮 SBC,也有明顯的成長。顯然,本季有很多事情要處理,但您能否稍微談談我們接下來應該如何看待這些問題?
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin
Sure. On the R&D side, what we're seeing, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, is kind of a convergence of a series of programs that are happening. And our R&D OpEx spend kind of correlates to where we are in the product life cycle on different programs. And so we're kind of at the tail end of investments in, what we call internally Palladium, which is the new Model S and Model X. And so we expect that to decrease over time, but it was high in Q1 for a lot of the reasons that Elon had mentioned.
當然。在研發方面,正如我在開場白中提到的,我們看到的是一系列正在進行的項目正在逐漸融合。我們的研發營運支出與不同專案的產品生命週期階段有一定的相關性。因此,我們對內部稱為「鈀金計畫」(即新款Model S和Model X)的投資已經接近尾聲。我們預期隨著時間的推移,投資額會下降,但由於埃隆提到的許多原因,第一季的投資額很高。
We're also getting very heavy into 4680 development that Drew and team are working on and the associated structural battery pack that goes along with that. And so these are new technologies, not only new to Tesla, but new to the industry. And so we're investing heavily there on an R&D side to work out those kinks. And spend along in those areas should continue over time as we continue to work through the development cycle of those.
我們也正全力投入 Drew 和他的團隊正在開發的 4680 以及與之相關的結構電池組的研發中。因此,這些都是新技術,不僅對特斯拉來說是新技術,對整個產業來說也是新技術。因此,我們正在研發方面投入巨資,以解決這些問題。隨著我們不斷推進這些領域的發展週期,在這些領域的投入也應該持續下去。
And then I also mentioned Elon talked a bit about Dojo and the potential there. So from neural net investments and custom silicon investments, these continue to be areas that we spend on and make investments in.
然後我還提到埃隆談到了 Dojo 以及它的潛力。因此,從神經網路投資到客製化晶片投資,這些仍然是我們投入資金和進行投資的領域。
On the SG&A side, the business is pivoting very quickly to be global. And China is ramping quite quickly. And we're trying to make sure that we are staying ahead of the volume so that we have the right sales capacity, store capacity there, local investments and IT and others to manage the growth, such that as the growth comes, the execution challenges are smaller than maybe in similar periods of growth that we've seen in the past. And so we're making investments there ahead of the growth. And overall, as we looked at OpEx as a percentage of revenue over the course of the year, we do expect to see a substantial drop from 2020 to 2021 as the volumes in the latter part of the year pick up.
在銷售、一般及行政費用方面,公司正迅速轉型為全球化企業。中國的增速相當快。我們正在努力確保我們始終領先於業務量的成長,以便我們擁有合適的銷售能力、門市容量、本地投資以及 IT 和其他資源來管理成長,這樣,隨著成長的到來,執行方面的挑戰就會比我們過去經歷的類似成長時期要小。因此,我們在成長之前就在那裡進行投資。總的來說,當我們查看全年營運支出佔收入的百分比時,我們預計隨著下半年業務量的增加,2020 年到 2021 年的營運支出將大幅下降。
Operator
Operator
From Dan Levy from Crédit Suisse.
來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Dan Levy。
Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Two questions. One is on COGS. I think we've gotten from Battery Day a pretty good feel about the potential for COGS reduction related to powertrain. But I'd like to get a sense of the path to reducing COGS, ex powertrain, as you'd still need a meaningful reduction on that front to make the math work on a $25,000 vehicle. So what levers do you have to reducing your cost, ex powertrain? Is it just more scale, better supplier pricing? Or is it just based on ongoing cost reduction?
兩個問題。一個是關於成本的。我認為透過電池日活動,我們已經對動力系統相關的成本降低潛力有了相當清晰的認識。但我希望了解降低銷售成本(不包括動力總成)的途徑,因為要讓一輛 25,000 美元的汽車的成本核算可行,仍然需要在這一方面進行實質性的降低。那麼,除了動力總成之外,你還有哪些方法可以降低成本呢?只是規模擴大、供應商定價更優惠嗎?或者僅僅是基於持續的成本降低?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
I mean I think all of the above.
我的意思是,我認為以上所有說法都對。
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering
Yes, I mean on the vehicle side, there's plenty of opportunity as well. Obviously, building a car like a Model S lot is quite complex and has various moving parts. Model 3 and Model Y were steps of improvement in that. But when you look at some of the other advancements that we're including in the Model Y, factories into Austin and Berlin, we've reduced the body count by as much as 60%, and the park cost money. So we continue to find optimizations there as well as we get the economies of scale when we start to talk about the volumes we're considering worldwide with 4 factories building the same vehicle. So both of those things on the vehicle side will improve our COGS as well, and powertrain continues to be integrated into that.
是的,我的意思是,在汽車領域,也有很多機會。顯然,製造像Model S這樣的汽車非常複雜,涉及各種活動部件。Model 3 和 Model Y 在這方面都是改良之作。但當你看看我們在 Model Y 中加入的其他一些進步,例如在奧斯汀和柏林建廠,我們已經將車輛數量減少了 60%,而且公園的建設也需要資金。因此,我們不斷尋找優化方案,同時,當我們開始討論我們考慮在全球範圍內由 4 家工廠生產同一款車型的產量時,我們也能獲得規模經濟效益。因此,車輛方面的這兩項改進都將改善我們的成本,動力系統也將繼續融入其中。
Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Great. And then just related. As you see Berlin and Austin ramp, I'd like to just get a sense on the comparison of Fremont versus the new capacity. Obviously, Fremont non-optimized because you bought the old NUMMI facility. You had to retrofit that to your need. So maybe you can give us a sense of how your new capacity is going to differ versus Fremont, what are the areas that you have efficiencies that you previously didn't have and maybe how much does that add up to improved COGS over time to help you achieve that $25,000 vehicle.
偉大的。然後就只是相關的事情。鑑於柏林和奧斯汀的產能正在提升,我想了解弗里蒙特與新產能的對比情況。顯然,弗里蒙特工廠沒有優化,因為你買下了舊的NUMMI工廠。你必須根據自己的需求進行改造。所以,您能否讓我們了解一下您的新產能與弗里蒙特工廠有何不同,您在哪些方面提高了效率,而這些效率是以前沒有的,以及隨著時間的推移,這些效率能為您降低多少銷貨成本,從而幫助您實現 25,000 美元的車輛目標?
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Yes. I think we don't want to talk too much about future product development. The earnings call is not the right place for -- to make major product announcement. So yes. We'll get there, but we'll talk about it later.
是的。我認為我們不應該過度談論未來的產品開發。財報電話會議不是發布重大產品公告的適當場合。是的。我們會談到這一點,但我們以後再談。
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR
All right. Thank you very much. Unfortunately, this is all the time we have for today. Thank you very much for dialing in and for listening, and we'll speak to you again in about 3 months. Thank you.
好的。非常感謝。很遺憾,我們今天的時間就到此為止了。非常感謝您的撥入和收聽,我們大約3個月後再與您通話。謝謝。
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla
Thanks, everyone.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。