特斯拉 (TSLA) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Tesla First Quarter 2021 Results and Q&A Webcast.

    女士們,先生們,美好的一天,感謝您的支持,歡迎收聽特斯拉 2021 年第一季度業績和問答網絡直播。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • I will now hand the conference over to your speaker today, Martin Viecha, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

    我現在將會議交給今天的演講者,投資者關係高級總監 Martin Viecha。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you, Carmen, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's First Quarter 2021 Q&A Webcast.

    謝謝卡門,大家下午好,歡迎收看特斯拉 2021 年第一季度問答網絡直播。

  • I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives.

    今天,埃隆·馬斯克、扎卡里·柯克霍恩和其他一些高管加入了我的行列。

  • Our Q1 results were announced at about 1:00 p.m.

    我們的第一季度業績是在下午 1:00 左右公佈的。

  • Pacific Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

    我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新平台中的太平洋時間。

  • During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。

  • These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

    這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。

  • Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

    由於許多風險和不確定性,包括我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的風險和不確定性,實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。

  • (Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks.

    (操作員說明)但在我們進入問答環節之前,埃隆有一些開場白。

  • Elon?

    埃隆?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • So Q1 2021 was a record quarter on many levels.

    因此,2021 年第一季度在許多層面上都是創紀錄的季度。

  • Tesla achieved record production, deliveries and surpassed $1 billion in non-GAAP net income for the first time.

    特斯拉實現了創紀錄的生產、交付和非 GAAP 淨利潤首次超過 10 億美元。

  • And we've seen a real shift in customer perception of electric vehicles, and our demand is the best we've ever seen.

    我們已經看到客戶對電動汽車的看法發生了真正的轉變,我們的需求是我們見過的最好的。

  • So this is -- [we're talking about] we're used to seeing a reduction in demand in the first quarter, and we saw an increase in demand that exceeded the normal seasonal reduction in demand in in Q1.

    所以這是 - [我們正在談論]我們習慣於看到第一季度需求減少,我們看到需求增長超過了第一季度需求的正常季節性減少。

  • So Model 3 became the best-selling midsized premier sedan in the world, in fact, I should say the best-selling luxury sedan of any kind in the world.

    所以Model 3成為了世界上最暢銷的中型高級轎車,事實上,我應該說是世界上最暢銷的豪華轎車。

  • The BMW 3 Series was for the longest time the best-selling premium sedan, has been exceeded by the Tesla Model 3. And this is only 3.5 years into production and was just 2 factories.

    寶馬 3 係是最暢銷的高檔轎車,被特斯拉 Model 3 超過了最長時間。而這才投產 3.5 年,而且只有 2 家工廠。

  • For Model 3 to be outselling its combustion engine competitors, I think, is quite remarkable.

    我認為,Model 3 的銷量超過其內燃機競爭對手,這是非常了不起的。

  • In the past couple of quarters, we delivered roughly 0.25 million Model 3s, so -- which translates to annualized rate of 0.5 million per year.

    在過去的幾個季度中,我們交付了大約 25 萬輛 Model 3,因此——這意味著每年 50 萬輛的年化率。

  • When it comes to Model Y, we think Model Y will be the best-selling car or vehicle of any kind in the world and probably next year.

    說到 Model Y,我們認為 Model Y 將成為世界上最暢銷的汽車或汽車,而且可能是明年。

  • So I'm not 100% certain next year, but I think it's quite likely.

    所以我不是 100% 確定明年,但我認為很有可能。

  • I'd say more likely than not, that in 2022, Model Y is the best-selling car or truck of any kind in the world.

    我想說的很有可能是,到 2022 年,Model Y 將成為世界上最暢銷的汽車或卡車。

  • Then with regard to Full Self-Driving.

    然後是關於全自動駕駛。

  • Full Self-Driving beta continues to make great progress.

    全自動駕駛測試版繼續取得巨大進步。

  • It is definitely one of the -- I think one of the hardest technical problems that exists, that's maybe ever existed.

    這絕對是 - 我認為存在的最困難的技術問題之一,這可能曾經存在過。

  • And really, in order to solve it, we basically need to solve a pretty significant part of artificial intelligence, specifically real-world artificial intelligence.

    事實上,為了解決這個問題,我們基本上需要解決人工智能的一個相當重要的部分,特別是現實世界的人工智能。

  • And that sort of AI, the neural net needs to be compressed into a fairly small computer, a very efficient computer that was designed, but nonetheless, a small computer that's using on the order of 70 or 80 watts.

    那種人工智能,神經網絡需要被壓縮到一個相當小的計算機中,一個非常高效的計算機被設計出來,但仍然是一個使用 70 或 80 瓦數量級的小型計算機。

  • So this is a much harder problem than if you were you, say, 10,000 computers in a server room or something like that.

    因此,這比如果您是服務器機房中的 10,000 台計算機之類的問題要困難得多。

  • This has got to fit into a [smaller sprain].

    這必須適應[較小的扭傷]。

  • And this -- I think with the elimination of radar, we're finally getting rid of one of the last crutches.

    這 - 我認為隨著雷達的消除,我們終於擺脫了最後一根拐杖。

  • Radar was really -- it was making up for some of the shortfalls of vision, but this is not good.

    雷達確實 - 它彌補了視力的一些不足,但這並不好。

  • You actually just need vision to work.

    你實際上只需要遠見就可以工作。

  • And when [beam] works, it works better than the best human because it's like having 8 cameras, it's like having eyes in the back of your head, beside your head and has 3 eyes of different focal distances looking forward.

    當 [beam] 工作時,它比最優秀的人工作得更好,因為它就像有 8 個攝像頭,就像在你的後腦勺,在你的頭旁邊,有 3 只不同焦距的眼睛向前看。

  • This is -- and processing it at a speed that is superhuman.

    這是 - 並以超人的速度處理它。

  • There's no question in my mind that with a pure vision solution, we can make a car that is dramatically safer than the average [person].

    在我看來,毫無疑問,通過純視覺解決方案,我們可以製造出比普通人更安全的汽車。

  • So -- but it is a hard problem because we are actually solving something quite fundamental about artificial intelligence, where we basically have to solve real-world vision AI.

    所以 - 但這是一個難題,因為我們實際上正在解決關於人工智能的一些非常基礎的問題,我們基本上必須解決現實世界的視覺 AI。

  • And we are.

    我們是。

  • So -- and key to solving this is also having some massive data set.

    所以——解決這個問題的關鍵還在於擁有一些海量數據集。

  • So just having well over 1 million cars on the road that are collecting data from very sort of corner case rare situations -- sort of like so many weird things in the world like a truck carrying a truck or a car with -- one example is like a car as an actual example, a car with the kayak on the roof where the kayak has a little weight dangling from the front of the kayak in front of the car and -- but yet the car must ignore this and just look at the road.

    因此,道路上有超過 100 萬輛汽車正在收集來自非常罕見的極端情況的數據——有點像世界上許多奇怪的東西,比如一輛載有卡車的卡車或一輛汽車——一個例子是就像一輛汽車作為一個實際例子,一輛皮划艇在車頂上的汽車,其中皮划艇有一點重量懸掛在汽車前面的皮划艇前部 - 但汽車必須忽略這一點,只看路。

  • So it's really quite tricky, but I am highly confident that we will get this done.

    所以這真的很棘手,但我非常有信心我們會完成這項工作。

  • So -- yes.

    所以——是的。

  • This quarter, and I think we'll continue to see that a little bit in Q2 and Q3.

    本季度,我認為我們將在第二季度和第三季度繼續看到這一點。

  • So Q1 was -- had some of the most difficult supply chain challenges that we've ever experienced in the life of Tesla and same difficulties with supply chain, with parts -- over the whole range of parts.

    所以第一季度 - 有一些我們在特斯拉的生活中經歷過的最困難的供應鏈挑戰,以及供應鍊和零件方面的同樣困難 - 在整個零件範圍內。

  • Obviously, people have heard about the chip shortage.

    顯然,人們聽說過芯片短缺。

  • This is a huge problem.

    這是一個巨大的問題。

  • But then in addition to that, for example, we had quite a difficulty scaling, driving our production in China because we're unable to get critical engineers there because of COVID quarantine restrictions.

    但除此之外,例如,我們在擴大規模、推動我們在中國的生產方面遇到了相當大的困難,因為由於 COVID 隔離限制,我們無法在那裡招募關鍵工程師。

  • So -- which meant that Tesla worldwide was dependent on drive units made at our factory in Nevada, Giga Nevada.

    所以——這意味著全球的特斯拉都依賴於我們在內華達州 Giga Nevada 工廠製造的驅動裝置。

  • So that was a very challenging situation.

    所以這是一個非常具有挑戰性的情況。

  • I think we're mostly out of that particular problem.

    我認為我們基本上已經擺脫了那個特定的問題。

  • That's just -- those was just 2 of many challenges.

    那隻是——這只是眾多挑戰中的兩個。

  • So the team has really done an incredible job of dealing with really severe supply chain shortages.

    因此,該團隊在處理非常嚴重的供應鏈短缺方面確實做得非常出色。

  • So with respect to the Model S and X, there were more challenges than expected in developing the Model S or what we call the Palladium program, which is the new version of Model S and X, which has revised interior and new battery pack and new drive units and new internal electronics and has, for example, a PlayStation 5 level infotainment system.

    所以對於 Model S 和 X,在開發 Model S 或者我們所說的 Palladium 計劃的過程中遇到的挑戰比預期的要多,它是 Model S 和 X 的新版本,它修改了內飾和新的電池組以及新的驅動單元和新的內部電子設備,並具有例如 PlayStation 5 級別的信息娛樂系統。

  • There's just a lot of issues encountered, ensuring that the new factory was, [as also we're saying] was quite hard because we were working more energy in a smaller pace.

    只是遇到了很多問題,確保新工廠 [正如我們所說的] 非常困難,因為我們以更小的速度工作更多的能量。

  • So it took quite a bit of of development to ensure that the battery of the new S/X is safe.

    因此,為了確保新 S/X 的電池安全,需要進行相當多的開發。

  • And we're trying to get all the -- in the cars slowly for the past few months.

    在過去的幾個月裡,我們正在努力讓所有的東西都在車裡慢慢地。

  • But we're just stacking them up in the yard and just making refinements to the cars that we built.

    但我們只是將它們堆放在院子裡,並對我們製造的汽車進行改進。

  • But we do expect to ramp Model S production and start delivering them probably next month.

    但我們確實希望提高 Model S 的產量,並可能在下個月開始交付。

  • And then to be in sort of fairly high volume production for the X in Q3 and start delivering Model X in Q3 as well.

    然後在第三季度對 X 進行相當大的批量生產,並在第三季度開始交付 Model X。

  • So I think as we ramp up, I think probably the demand for the new S/X will be quite high.

    所以我認為隨著我們的發展,我認為對新 S/X 的需求可能會相當高。

  • So it's really just going to be a question of ramping supply chain and internal production processes.

    所以這真的只是一個增加供應鍊和內部生產流程的問題。

  • So probably, like, we're going to aim to produce over 2,000 S/X per week.

    所以可能,比如,我們的目標是每週生產超過 2,000 個 S/X。

  • Perhaps if we get lucky, upwards of 2,400 or 2,500.

    也許如果我們幸運的話,可能會超過 2,400 或 2,500。

  • This again is contingent on global supply chain issues, which is just a lot of factors outside of our control here.

    這再次取決於全球供應鏈問題,這只是我們無法控制的很多因素。

  • But I do think [these will get solved], so it's just a matter of time, and then we'll be doing well over 2,000 S/X per week.

    但我確實認為[這些會得到解決],所以這只是時間問題,然後我們每週會做得超過 2,000 個 S/X。

  • It's a great car.

    這是一輛很棒的車。

  • It actually costs us less to produce, a little bit less to produce, but it is a superior product.

    它實際上我們的生產成本更低,生產成本更低,但它是一種卓越的產品。

  • So in conclusion is there's a lot to be excited about in 2021 and '22.

    因此,總而言之,2021 年和 22 年有很多令人興奮的事情。

  • We're building factories as quickly as we can.

    我們正在盡快建造工廠。

  • Both Texas and Berlin are progressing well, and we expect to have initial limited production from those factories this year and volume production from Texas and Berlin next year.

    得克薩斯州和柏林都進展順利,我們預計這些工廠今年將開始限量生產,明年將在得克薩斯州和柏林實現批量生產。

  • At this time, we are continuing to ramp production of Model Y in Fremont and Shanghai.

    目前,我們將繼續在弗里蒙特和上海提高 Model Y 的產量。

  • In the background, we're continuing work -- development work on the Semi, Cybertruck, the Roadster and other products.

    在後台,我們正在繼續工作——開發 Semi、Cybertruck、Roadster 和其他產品。

  • Thanks to everyone at Tesla who made this year a huge success.

    感謝特斯拉今年取得巨大成功的每一個人。

  • Now on to questions.

    現在開始提問。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • We have some remarks from Zachary Kirkhorn as well.

    我們還有來自 Zachary Kirkhorn 的一些評論。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

    Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks, Martin.

    謝謝,馬丁。

  • Thanks, Elon.

    謝謝,埃隆。

  • So congratulations to the Tesla team on breaking multiple records in the first quarter of '21, as Elon had mentioned, which is typically the most difficult of the year for many reasons.

    因此祝賀特斯拉團隊在 21 年第一季度打破多項記錄,正如埃隆所說,由於多種原因,這通常是一年中最困難的時期。

  • To summarize the quarter, I think it's best understood by 3 key items.

    總結本季度,我認為最好通過 3 個關鍵項目來理解。

  • First, we successfully launched and began the ramp of Model Y in Shanghai, achieving positive gross margin in the first quarter of production and receiving a great reception from the market.

    首先,我們在上海成功推出Model Y並開始量產,第一季度生產毛利率為正,獲得市場好評。

  • Second, as Elon mentioned, although we began the production process for the Model S during the quarter, we had not yet begun customer deliveries.

    其次,正如 Elon 所提到的,雖然我們在本季度開始了 Model S 的生產過程,但我們還沒有開始向客戶交付。

  • The reduction in Model S and X deliveries from Q4 to Q1 were a meaningful headwind to free cash flows and profit generation.

    從第 4 季度到第 1 季度,Model S 和 X 交付量的減少對自由現金流和利潤產生構成了重大不利影響。

  • For example, we incurred an estimated $200 million of direct P&L impact relating to this program in Q1, the majority of which is reflected in COGS and that's before even considering the impact of lost revenue and profits as a result of the transition.

    例如,我們在第一季度產生了與該計劃相關的估計 2 億美元的直接損益影響,其中大部分反映在銷貨成本中,這甚至沒有考慮因過渡而導致的收入和利潤損失的影響。

  • And as he mentioned -- as Elon mentioned, we expect the first deliveries to begin shortly.

    正如他所提到的——正如埃隆所提到的,我們預計第一批交付將很快開始。

  • Third, as we continue to work through the instability of the global supply chain, particularly around semiconductors and port capacities, while the Tesla team in partnership with our suppliers did tremendous work keeping our factories running, we did experience high expedite costs in the quarter, and they were also higher than they were in Q4, with some minor interruptions to production over the course of the quarter.

    第三,隨著我們繼續應對全球供應鏈的不穩定性,尤其是在半導體和港口產能方面,而特斯拉團隊與我們的供應商合作,為保持工廠正常運轉做了大量工作,但我們在本季度確實經歷了高昂的加急成本,而且它們也高於第四季度,在本季度中生產出現了一些小中斷。

  • We believe that this landscape is improving, but it does remain difficult, and it's an evolving situation.

    我們相信這種情況正在改善,但它仍然很困難,而且情況正在不斷發展。

  • If we double-click within net income.

    如果我們在淨收入中雙擊。

  • Auto gross margin, excluding credits, improved sequentially and year-over-year.

    不包括信貸在內的汽車毛利率環比和同比均有所提高。

  • This is in spite of the cost mentions for S and X and expedites and a reduction in global ASPs as our cost structure as a company is reducing at an even faster pace.

    儘管提到了 S 和 X 的成本以及加速以及全球 ASP 的下降,因為我們作為一家公司的成本結構正在以更快的速度下降。

  • So as we look out over the course of the year, we feel optimistic about our gross margin strength, particularly as some of these headwinds we're experiencing start to be resolved.

    因此,當我們展望這一年時,我們對我們的毛利率實力感到樂觀,尤其是當我們遇到的一些不利因素開始得到解決時。

  • On services and other margins, these have recovered and are trending towards profitability, aided by strength in the used car business, operational improvements in service and additional service revenue opportunities that help absorb fixed overhead.

    在服務和其他利潤方面,這些已經恢復並趨於盈利,這得益於二手車業務的強勁、服務的運營改進以及有助於吸收固定開銷的額外服務收入機會。

  • On energy gross margins, these remained negative for second quarter.

    在能源毛利率方面,第二季度仍然為負。

  • This is driven by solar-related ramp costs and winter seasonality in the lease PPA business.

    這是由與太陽能相關的斜坡成本和租賃 PPA 業務中的冬季季節性驅動的。

  • We continue to manage through a multi-quarter backlog on Powerwall.

    我們繼續通過 Powerwall 上的多個季度積壓進行管理。

  • We're working as fast as we can to increase production.

    我們正在盡可能快地工作以增加產量。

  • And this will aid in profitability of this business as those volumes increase.

    隨著這些數量的增加,這將有助於該業務的盈利能力。

  • On operating expenses, these increased for Q1, which is driven by our investments in technology and growth.

    在運營費用方面,第一季度這些費用有所增加,這是由我們對技術和增長的投資推動的。

  • In particular, for R&D, this includes the structural battery pack and 4680 cells, investments in the new S and X and our neural net and silicon investments.

    特別是在研發方面,這包括結構電池組和 4680 節電池、對新 S 和 X 的投資以及我們的神經網絡和矽投資。

  • On the SG&A side, we're setting up infrastructure and support for both China and EMEA in anticipation of volume to come there.

    在 SG&A 方面,我們正在為中國和歐洲、中東和非洲地區建立基礎設施和支持,以期達到那裡的銷量。

  • And as I said before, our plans show that we remain on track for sustained industry-leading operating margins.

    正如我之前所說,我們的計劃表明我們仍有望保持行業領先的營業利潤率。

  • Double-clicking on cash flows.

    雙擊現金流。

  • We continue to generate positive free cash flows, and this was despite the significant working capital headwinds from S and X. Additionally, we are making progress reducing various forms of debt.

    我們繼續產生正的自由現金流,儘管來自 S 和 X 的營運資金逆風很大。此外,我們正在減少各種形式的債務方面取得進展。

  • We also invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin during the quarter, then trimmed our position by 10%, which contributed to a small gain in our Q1 financials.

    我們還在本季度投資了 15 億美元的比特幣,然後將我們的頭寸削減了 10%,這導致我們第一季度的財務狀況略有增長。

  • Taking a step back, we've generated $8 billion in operating cash flows and $4 billion in free cash flows over the past 4 quarters.

    退一步說,我們在過去 4 個季度中產生了 80 億美元的經營現金流和 40 億美元的自由現金流。

  • As we look forward, our plans remain unchanged for long-term growth of 50% annually, and we believe we're on track to exceed that this year as we guided to last quarter.

    展望未來,我們的計劃保持每年 50% 的長期增長不變,並且我們相信我們有望在上個季度的指導下超過今年。

  • Global demand remains meaningfully higher than production levels.

    全球需求仍顯著高於生產水平。

  • And so we're driving as fast as we can to increase our production rates.

    因此,我們盡可能快地行駛以提高生產率。

  • As we think about Q2 and Q3, these quarters should largely be driven by execution on S and X, as we've discussed, continued ramp of Model Y in Shanghai and the associated cost reductions of these programs.

    當我們考慮第二季度和第三季度時,這些季度應該主要由 S 和 X 的執行驅動,正如我們所討論的那樣,Model Y 在上海的持續增長以及這些項目的相關成本降低。

  • And we expect profitability and cash generation to evolve over the course of the year in line with those improvements.

    我們預計盈利能力和現金產生將在一年中隨著這些改進而發展。

  • And then as we get towards the end of the year, our story will pivot towards the launch and ramp of our newest factories in Austin and Berlin.

    然後隨著我們接近年底,我們的故事將轉向我們在奧斯汀和柏林的最新工廠的啟動和量產。

  • So there's certainly no shortage of exciting things for us to work on and look forward to.

    因此,我們當然不乏令人興奮的事情要做和期待。

  • Thank you, and we'll open it up for questions.

    謝謝,我們會打開它來回答問題。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • And we'll first take retail questions from, say, website.

    我們將首先從網站上回答零售問題。

  • The first question is, how is Dojo coming along?

    第一個問題是,Dojo 進展如何?

  • Could Dojo unlock an AWS like business line for Tesla over the next few years?

    未來幾年,Dojo 能否為特斯拉開啟類似 AWS 的業務線?

  • Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

    Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I'll jump in here.

    我會跳到這裡。

  • So with respect to Dojo...

    所以關於道場...

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Sorry, Zach.

    對不起,扎克。

  • My apologies.

    我很抱歉。

  • I was on mute.

    我靜音了。

  • Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

    Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

  • Go ahead, Elon.

    加油,埃隆。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • So yes, I was just basically saying that the -- although like right now, people think of Tesla as -- a lot will think of Tesla as a car company or as an energy company.

    所以是的,我基本上只是說——儘管就像現在,人們認為特斯拉是——很多人會認為特斯拉是一家汽車公司或一家能源公司。

  • I think long term, people will think of Tesla as much as an AI robotics company as we are a car company or an energy company.

    我認為從長遠來看,人們會將特斯拉視為一家人工智能機器人公司,就像我們是一家汽車公司或一家能源公司一樣。

  • I think we are developing one of the strongest hardware and software AI teams in the world.

    我認為我們正在開發世界上最強大的硬件和軟件 AI 團隊之一。

  • Certainly, we appear to be able to use things with full self-driving that others cannot.

    當然,我們似乎能夠使用其他人不能完全自動駕駛的東西。

  • So if you look at the evolution of what technologies we developed, we developed them in order to solve the problem of self-driving.

    所以如果你看看我們開發的技術的演變,我們開發它們是為了解決自動駕駛的問題。

  • So we couldn't find a powerful enough neural net [in terms of a] computer.

    所以我們找不到足夠強大的神經網絡 [就一台] 計算機而言。

  • So we designed and built our own.

    所以我們設計並建造了我們自己的。

  • The software out there was really quite primitive for this task.

    那裡的軟件對於這項任務來說真的很原始。

  • And so we built the team from scratch and have been developing what we think is probably the most advanced real-world AI in the world.

    因此,我們從頭開始建立團隊,並一直在開發我們認為可能是世界上最先進的現實世界人工智能。

  • And then it sort makes sense that this is kind of what needs to happen because the road system is designed for a neural net computer, our brain.

    然後,這是有道理的,因為道路系統是為神經網絡計算機(我們的大腦)設計的。

  • Our brain is neural net computer.

    我們的大腦是神經網絡計算機。

  • And it's -- the entire road system is designed for vision with a neural net computer, which is because it's designed for eyes in the brain.

    它是 - 整個道路系統是為帶有神經網絡計算機的視覺而設計的,這是因為它是為大腦中的眼睛設計的。

  • And so if you have a system which has very good eyes, you can see in all directions at once, you can see 3 focal points ahead or forward, but it never gets tired.

    所以如果你有一個眼睛很好的系統,你可以同時看到所有方向,你可以看到前方或前方的 3 個焦點,但它永遠不會感到疲倦。

  • It's never sort of texting.

    從來都不是發短信。

  • It has redundancy and its reaction time is super human.

    它有冗餘,反應時間超人。

  • Then it seems pretty obvious that such a system would achieve an extremely high level of safety, far in excess of the average person.

    那麼很明顯,這樣的系統將達到極高的安全水平,遠遠超過普通人。

  • So that's what we're doing.

    所以這就是我們正在做的。

  • Then Dojo is kind of the training part of that.

    然後道場就是其中的訓練部分。

  • So because we're -- we have over 1 million cars, and perhaps next year, we'll have 2 million cars in active use, providing vast amounts of video training data that then needs to be digested by a very powerful training system.

    因為我們 - 我們有超過 100 萬輛汽車,也許明年,我們將有 200 萬輛汽車在使用,提供大量視頻訓練數據,然後需要由非常強大的訓練系統消化。

  • And currently, we use Tesla training software.

    目前,我們使用特斯拉培訓軟件。

  • So we developed a lot of training software, a lot of labeling software to do, to able to do surround video labeling, which is quite tricky.

    所以我們開發了很多訓練軟件,很多標註軟件要做,才能做環繞視頻標註,這個比較棘手。

  • This means all 8 cameras simultaneously at 36 range a second per camera labeling video over time.

    這意味著所有 8 台攝像機同時以每台攝像機每秒 36 次的速度標記視頻。

  • There wasn't any tool that existed for this, so we developed our own labeling tool.

    沒有任何工具可用於此目的,因此我們開發了自己的標籤工具。

  • Then taking it a step further, obviously, the Holy Grail is auto labeling.

    然後更進一步,顯然,聖杯是自動標記。

  • So now we're getting quite good at auto labeling, where we do -- where -- that the trainers train the training system and then the system auto labels the data and then the human laborers just need to look at the labeling to confirm that it is correct and perhaps make edits.

    所以現在我們在自動標記方面做得非常好,我們在哪裡 - 在那裡 - 訓練員訓練訓練系統,然後系統自動標記數據,然後人工只需查看標記以確認這是正確的,也許可以進行編輯。

  • And then every time an edit is made, that further trains the system.

    然後每次進行編輯時,都會進一步訓練系統。

  • So it's kind of like a flywheel that's just sort of spinning up.

    所以它有點像一個飛輪,它只是在旋轉。

  • And really, the only way to do this is with vast amounts of video data.

    實際上,做到這一點的唯一方法是使用大量視頻數據。

  • So then we need to train this efficiently.

    那麼我們需要有效地訓練它。

  • So Dojo is really a -- it is a supercomputer optimized for neural net training.

    所以Dojo 真的是一個——它是一個為神經網絡訓練而優化的超級計算機。

  • We think Dojo will be, probably in order of magnitude, more efficient on, say -- not sure what the exact right metric is, but say, per frame of video, we think it will be an order of magnitude more cost efficient in hardware and in energy usage for a frame of video compared to a GPU-based solution or compared to the next best solution that we're aware of.

    我們認為 Dojo 可能會在數量級上更高效,比如 - 不確定確切的正確指標是什麼,但是說,每幀視頻,我們認為它在硬件上的成本效率將提高一個數量級以及與基於 GPU 的解決方案或我們所知的次佳解決方案相比,一幀視頻的能源使用情況。

  • So then possibly that could be used by others.

    那麼可能其他人可以使用它。

  • It does seem as though over time -- I mean just an observation, I think basically is the fact that neural net based computing or AI-based computing is and more and more of the compute stack.

    似乎隨著時間的推移——我的意思是只是一個觀察,我認為基本上是這樣一個事實,即基於神經網絡的計算或基於人工智能的計算越來越多地成為計算堆棧。

  • We -- conventional computing -- well, perhaps heuristics-based computing is still going to be important, still going to be very important, but it will become -- but neural net will become a bigger and bigger portion of compute.

    我們——傳統計算——好吧,也許基於啟發式的計算仍然很重要,仍然會非常重要,但它會變得——但神經網絡將成為越來越大的計算部分。

  • So a long story, but I think, yes, probably others will want to use it too, and we will make it available.

    說來話長,但我認為,是的,可能其他人也想使用它,我們將提供它。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Let's go to the second question from retail investors.

    讓我們回到散戶投資者的第二個問題。

  • The recent price changes on solar roof have been discouraging for customers and investors.

    最近太陽能屋頂的價格變化讓客戶和投資者感到沮喪。

  • Could just like share more about solar roof challenges?

    可以分享更多有關太陽能屋頂挑戰的信息嗎?

  • And if the outlook has changed at all, i.e., 1,000 roofs per week.

    如果前景發生了變化,即每週 1,000 個屋頂。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • First of all, I should say that the demand for the solar roof remains strong.

    首先,我應該說對太陽能屋頂的需求仍然強勁。

  • So despite raising the price, the demand is still significantly in excess of our ability to meet the demand to install the solar roofs.

    因此,儘管提高了價格,但需求仍然大大超出了我們滿足安裝太陽能屋頂需求的能力。

  • So production is going fine, but we are [curbed] at the installation point.

    所以生產進展順利,但我們在安裝點[受到限制]。

  • We did find that we basically made some significant mistakes in assessing the difficulty of certain roofs, but the complexity of roofs varies dramatically.

    我們確實發現我們在評估某些屋頂的難度時基本上犯了一些重大錯誤,但屋頂的複雜性差異很大。

  • Some roofs are to be literally 2 or 3x easier than other roofs.

    有些屋頂實際上比其他屋頂容易 2 或 3 倍。

  • So you just can't have a one-size-fits-all situation.

    所以你不能有一個一刀切的情況。

  • If a roof has a lot of protuberances or if the roof sort of -- the core structure of the roof is rotted out or is it not strong enough to hold the solar roof, then the cost can be double, sometimes 3x what we -- what our initial quotes were.

    如果屋頂有很多突起,或者屋頂有點——屋頂的核心結構已經腐爛,或者它的強度不足以支撐太陽能屋頂,那麼成本可能會翻倍,有時是我們的三倍——我們最初的報價是什麼。

  • So in those cases, what we obviously opt to do is to refund customers their deposit and -- but what we cannot do is go and just lose a massive amount of money.

    因此,在這些情況下,我們顯然選擇做的是退還客戶的押金,但我們不能做的就是損失大量資金。

  • We just got to provide a refund of the early deposit.

    我們只需要退還早期押金。

  • But that's what is, I think, most important about the solar roof situation, which I tweeted about this past week, is that we're shifting the whole sort of solar situation -- the solar power -- well, basically, solar power situation to there's only 1 product basically -- or there's only 1 configuration.

    但這就是,我認為,關於太陽能屋頂情況最重要的事情,我上週在推特上提到,我們正在改變整個太陽能情況——太陽能——嗯,基本上,太陽能情況基本上只有一種產品——或者只有一種配置。

  • Every house -- we will not sell a house solar without a Powerwall.

    每棟房子——我們不會出售沒有 Powerwall 的太陽能住宅。

  • That solar could either be solar retrofit with conventional panels put on the roof or it can be the Tesla Solarglass Roof.

    這種太陽能可以是在屋頂上安裝傳統面板的太陽能改造,也可以是特斯拉太陽能玻璃屋頂。

  • But in all cases, it will have the power to -- technically, this is -- it's actually Powerwall 2 plus, if you will.

    但在所有情況下,它都有能力——從技術上講,這是——它實際上是 Powerwall 2 plus,如果你願意的話。

  • The plus refers to a higher peak power capability.

    加號是指更高的峰值功率能力。

  • So basically, all Powerwalls made since roughly November of last year have a lot more peak power capability than the specification on the website.

    所以基本上,自去年 11 月左右以來製造的所有 Powerwall 的峰值功率能力都比網站上的規格高得多。

  • They have about twice the power capability roughly.

    它們大約具有大約兩倍的功率能力。

  • It depends on how you count power, but about twice the peak power and about arguably twice the steady-state power of the specification of the website.

    這取決於您如何計算功率,但大約是峰值功率的兩倍,可以說是網站規範的穩態功率的兩倍。

  • The energy is the same, but the power is roughly double.

    能量相同,但功率大致翻倍。

  • And all the installations -- so all installations will have a Powerwall.

    以及所有的安裝——所以所有的安裝都將有一個 Powerwall。

  • And the difficulty installation will dramatically -- or the difficulty of the installation will be much less.

    並且安裝的難度會很大——或者安裝的難度會小得多。

  • It will be much easier because the power from the solar roof -- Solarglass Roof or the solar panels will only ever go directly into the Powerwall.

    這會容易得多,因為來自太陽能屋頂——Solarglass Roof 或太陽能電池板的電力只會直接進入 Powerwall。

  • And the Powerwall will only ever go between the utility means -- between the utility and the main power panel of the house, which means you never need to touch the main circuit breakers of the house.

    Powerwall 只會在公用設施之間運行——在公用設施和房屋的主電源面板之間,這意味著您永遠不需要接觸房屋的主斷路器。

  • You never need to touch the house circuit breakers.

    您永遠不需要觸摸房屋斷路器。

  • Effectively, almost every house, therefore, looks the same electrically instead of being a unique work of art and requiring exceptional ability to rewire the main panel.

    因此,實際上,幾乎每個房子在電氣上看起來都一樣,而不是獨特的藝術品,並且需要特殊的能力來重新佈線主面板。

  • So this is extremely important for scalability is.

    所以這對於可擴展性來說是極其重要的。

  • It's the only way to do it, really.

    這是唯一的方法,真的。

  • And this also means that every solar Powerwall installation that the house, or whatever the case may be, will be its own utility.

    這也意味著房子裡的每一個太陽能 Powerwall 安裝,或者不管是什麼情況,都將成為它自己的公用事業。

  • And so even if all lights go out in the neighborhood, you will still have power.

    所以即使附近所有的燈都熄滅了,你仍然有電。

  • So that gives people energy security.

    因此,這為人們提供了能源安全。

  • And we can also, in working with the utilities, use the Powerwalls to stabilize the overall grid.

    我們還可以與公用事業公司合作,使用 Powerwall 來穩定整個電網。

  • So let's say that there's a -- like there was in Texas, there was a peak power demand, and the power demand, because the grid lacked the ability to buffer the power, they had to shut down power.

    因此,假設有一個 - 就像在德克薩斯州一樣,存在峰值電力需求,並且電力需求,因為電網缺乏緩衝電力的能力,他們不得不關閉電力。

  • There's no power storage.

    沒有蓄電。

  • No good point on power storage.

    在電力存儲方面沒有好處。

  • However, with a whole bunch of Powerwalls and houses, we can actually buffer the power.

    但是,有了一大堆 Powerwall 和房屋,我們實際上可以緩衝電力。

  • And so if the grid needs more power, we can actually then, with the consent, obviously, of the homeowner and in partnership with the utility, we can then actually release power onto the grid to take care of peak power demand.

    因此,如果電網需要更多電力,我們實際上可以在徵得房主同意並與公用事業公司合作的情況下,向電網釋放電力以應對峰值電力需求。

  • So effectively, the Powerwalls can operate as a giant distributed utility.

    如此有效,Powerwalls 可以作為一個巨大的分佈式實用程序運行。

  • This is profound.

    這是深刻的。

  • I'm not sure how many of you will actually understand this but this is extremely profound and necessary because we are headed towards a world where, as we were just talking about earlier, where people are moving towards electric vehicles.

    我不確定你們中有多少人會真正理解這一點,但這是非常深刻和必要的,因為我們正走向一個世界,正如我們之前所說,人們正在轉向電動汽車。

  • This will mean that the power needs in -- at homes and businesses will increase significantly.

    這將意味著家庭和企業的電力需求將顯著增加。

  • We will -- there will need to be a bunch more electricity coming somewhere.

    我們會 - 某個地方需要更多的電力。

  • In fact, if you go to full renewable electricity, we need about 3x as much electricity as we currently have.

    事實上,如果你使用完全可再生電力,我們需要的電力大約是目前的 3 倍。

  • So these are rough numbers, but roughly you need twice -- roughly need twice much electricity if all transport goes electric, and they need 3x much electricity if all heating goes electric.

    所以這些是粗略的數字,但大致上你需要兩倍——如果所有交通工具都用電,大約需要兩倍的電力,如果所有的暖氣都用電,他們需要三倍的電力。

  • So basically, this is a prosperous future, I think, both for Tesla and for the utilities.

    所以基本上,我認為這對特斯拉和公用事業來說都是一個繁榮的未來。

  • Because -- and in fact, I think this will be very -- if this is not done, the utilities will fail to serve their customers.

    因為——事實上,我認為這將非常——如果不這樣做,公用事業將無法為客戶服務。

  • They won't be able to do it.

    他們將無法做到。

  • They won't be able to react fast enough.

    他們將無法做出足夠快的反應。

  • And we're going to see more and more of what we see, say, in California and Texas of people seeing brownouts and blackouts and the utilities not being able to respond because there's a massive change going on with the transition to electric transport.

    我們將看到越來越多的情況,比如在加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州,人們看到電力不足和停電,公用事業無法做出回應,因為向電動交通的過渡正在發生巨大的變化。

  • And we're seeing more extreme weather events.

    我們看到了更多的極端天氣事件。

  • This is a recipe for disaster.

    這是災難的秘訣。

  • So it is very important to have solar and batteries at the local level, at the house.

    因此,在當地、房屋內安裝太陽能和電池非常重要。

  • In addition, it is important to have large battery storage at the utility level, so that solar and wind, which are the main forms of renewable electricity, can be -- that electricity can be stored because sometimes the wind doesn't blow, sometimes it blows wide.

    此外,在公用事業層面擁有大型電池存儲很重要,這樣太陽能和風能是可再生電力的主要形式,可以存儲電力,因為有時風不吹,有時它吹得很寬。

  • Sometimes it blows too much and sometimes it didn't blow enough.

    有時吹得太多,有時吹得不夠。

  • But if you have a battery, you can store the energy and provide the energy to the grid as needed.

    但是,如果您有電池,則可以存儲能量並根據需要向電網提供能量。

  • The same goes for solar because, obviously, the sun does not shine at night and sometimes it is very cloudy.

    太陽能也是如此,因為很明顯,太陽在晚上不發光,有時非常多雲。

  • And so by having battery storage paired with solar and wind, this is the long-term solution to a sustainable energy future.

    因此,通過將電池存儲與太陽能和風能相結合,這是可持續能源未來的長期解決方案。

  • And as I said, it needs to occur both at the local level and at the utility level.

    正如我所說,它需要發生在地方層面和公用事業層面。

  • If it doesn't occur at the local level, what will actually be required is a massive increase in power lines in power plants.

    如果它不在地方一級發生,那麼實際上需要的是大量增加發電廠的電力線。

  • So they have to put long distance and local power lines all over the place.

    所以他們不得不在所有地方鋪設長途和本地電力線。

  • They'll have to increase the size of the substations, is a nightmare.

    他們將不得不增加變電站的規模,是一場噩夢。

  • This must occur.

    這必鬚髮生。

  • There must be solar plus battery.

    必須有太陽能加電池。

  • That's the only way.

    這是唯一的辦法。

  • So yes.

    所以是的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • And the next retail question is, master of coin, can you tell us anything about Tesla's future plans in digital currency space or when any such major developments might be revealed?

    下一個零售問題是,硬幣大師,您能否告訴我們有關特斯拉在數字貨幣領域的未來計劃的任何信息,或者什麼時候可能會透露任何此類重大發展?

  • Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

    Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Thanks, Martin.

    謝謝,馬丁。

  • So as I noted in our opening remarks and we've announced previously, so Tesla did invest $1.5 billion into bitcoin in Q1, and then we subsequently sold a 10% stake in that.

    正如我在開場白中所指出的,我們之前也宣布過,所以特斯拉在第一季度確實向比特幣投資了 15 億美元,然後我們隨後出售了其中 10% 的股份。

  • We also allow customers to make vehicle deposits and final vehicle purchases using bitcoin.

    我們還允許客戶使用比特幣進行車輛存款和最終車輛購買。

  • And so where our Bitcoin story began, maybe just to share a little bit of context here.

    所以我們的比特幣故事從哪裡開始,也許只是在這里分享一點背景。

  • Elon and I were looking for a place to store cash that wasn't being immediately used, trying to get some level of return on this, but also preserve liquidity.

    埃隆和我正在尋找一個地方來存儲沒有立即使用的現金,試圖獲得一定程度的回報,但同時也保持流動性。

  • Particularly as we look forward to the launch of Austin and Berlin and uncertainty that's happening with semiconductors and port capacity, being able to access our cash very quickly is super important to us right now.

    特別是當我們期待奧斯汀和柏林的推出以及半導體和港口容量正在發生的不確定性時,能夠非常快速地獲取我們的現金對我們來說現在非常重要。

  • And there aren't many traditional opportunities to do this or at least that we found and in talking to others that we could get good feedback on, particularly with yields being so low and without taking on additional risk or sacrificing liquidity.

    而且沒有多少傳統機會可以做到這一點,或者至少我們發現並在與其他人交談時我們可以獲得良好的反饋,特別是在收益率如此低且不承擔額外風險或犧牲流動性的情況下。

  • And Bitcoin seemed at the time and so far has proven to be a good decision.

    比特幣在當時似乎並且到目前為止已被證明是一個不錯的決定。

  • A good place to place some of our cash that's not immediately being used for daily operations or maybe not needed till the end of the year and be able to get some return on that.

    一個放置我們的一些現金的好地方,這些現金不會立即用於日常運營,或者可能直到年底才需要,並能夠從中獲得一些回報。

  • And I think one of the key points that I want to make about our experiences in the digital currency space is that there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic here.

    我認為我想就我們在數字貨幣領域的經驗提出的關鍵點之一是,這裡有很多理由保持樂觀。

  • We're certainly watching it very closely at Tesla, watching how the market develops, listening to what our customers are saying.

    我們肯定會在特斯拉密切關注它,觀察市場如何發展,傾聽客戶的意見。

  • But thinking about it from a corporate treasury perspective, we've been quite pleased with how much liquidity there is in the bitcoin market.

    但是從企業財務的角度考慮,我們對比特幣市場的流動性非常滿意。

  • So our ability to build our first position happened quickly.

    所以我們建立我們的第一個位置的能力發生得很快。

  • When we did the sale later in March, we also were able to execute on that very quickly.

    當我們在 3 月晚些時候進行銷售時,我們也能夠非常迅速地執行。

  • And so as we think about kind of global liquidity for the business in risk management, being able to get cash in and out of the market is something that I think is exceptionally important for us.

    因此,當我們考慮風險管理業務的全球流動性時,我認為能夠將現金進出市場對我們來說尤為重要。

  • So we do believe long term in the value of bitcoin.

    所以我們相信比特幣的長期價值。

  • So it is our intent to hold what we have long term and continue to accumulate bitcoin from transactions from our customers as they purchase vehicles.

    因此,我們打算長期持有我們擁有的資產,並繼續從客戶購買車輛時的交易中積累比特幣。

  • Specifically with respect to things we may do, there are things that we're constantly discussing.

    特別是關於我們可能做的事情,有些事情我們一直在討論。

  • We're not planning to make any announcements here, and we're watching this space closely.

    我們不打算在這裡發布任何公告,我們正在密切關注這個領域。

  • So when we're ready to make an announcement on this front, if there's one to come, we'll certainly let you all know.

    因此,當我們準備好在這方面發佈公告時,如果有消息發布,我們肯定會讓大家知道。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • And the fourth question from retail investors is, does Tesla have any proactive plans to tackle mainstream media's imminent, massive and deceptive click-based headline campaigns on safety of autopilot or FSD for a specialty PR job of some sort?

    散戶投資者的第四個問題是,特斯拉是否有任何積極的計劃來應對主流媒體即將到來的、大規模的、基於點擊的、關於自動駕駛儀或 FSD 安全性的標題宣傳活動,以進行某種專業的公關工作?

  • Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

  • Well, I can -- I'll take this one, guys.

    好吧,我可以 - 我會接受這個,伙計們。

  • From the safety side, I continue to say -- Elon, drive the point and I'll -- go ahead, Elon.

    從安全方面來說,我繼續說——埃隆,突破點,我會——繼續前進,埃隆。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • I think -- no, please go ahead.

    我想——不,請繼續。

  • I think it's just worth going through the facts of the -- what -- I mean, specifically, there were -- there was an article regarding a tragedy where there was a high-speed in Tesla.

    我認為有必要了解以下事實 - 我的意思是,特別是有 - 有一篇關於特斯拉高速行駛的悲劇的文章。

  • But -- and there was really just extremely deceptive media practices where it was claimed to be Autopilot where this is completely false.

    但是——而且真的只是極具欺騙性的媒體做法聲稱它是自動駕駛儀,而這是完全錯誤的。

  • And those journalists should be ashamed of themselves.

    那些記者應該為自己感到羞恥。

  • Please go ahead, Lars.

    請繼續,拉斯。

  • Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

    Lars Moravy - VP of Vehicle Engineering

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thanks, Elon.

    謝謝,埃隆。

  • So I was just saying, we're committed to safety in all our designs, and that's number 1 in what we do here.

    所以我只是想說,我們在所有設計中都致力於安全,這是我們在這裡所做的第一件事。

  • Regarding the crash in Houston, specifically, we worked directly with the local authorities, NTSB and NHTSA, wherever applicable and whenever they reach out to us for help directly on the engineering level and whatever else we can support.

    具體而言,關於休斯頓的墜機事故,我們直接與地方當局、NTSB 和 NHTSA 合作,無論何時,只要他們在工程層面直接向我們尋求幫助以及我們可以提供的任何其他支持。

  • In that vein, we did a study with them over the past week to understand what happened in that particular crash.

    在這方面,我們在過去一周與他們一起進行了一項研究,以了解在那次特定事故中發生了什麼。

  • And what we've learned from that effort was that Autosteer did not and could not engage on the road condition that -- as it was designed.

    我們從這項努力中學到的是 Autosteer 沒有也不能適應路況——正如它設計的那樣。

  • Our adaptive cruise control only engage when a driver was buckled in about 5 miles per hour.

    我們的自適應巡航控制系統僅在駕駛員以大約 5 英里/小時的速度行駛時才會啟動。

  • And it only accelerated to 30 miles per hour with the distance before the car crashed.

    而且隨著汽車墜毀前的距離,它僅加速到每小時 30 英里。

  • As well adaptive cruise control disengage the cars fully to complete to a stop when the driver's seatbelt was unbuckled.

    當駕駛員的安全帶解開時,自適應巡航控制系統也會完全脫離汽車以完全停止。

  • Through further investigation of the vehicle and accident remains, we inspected the car with NTSB and NHTSA and the local police and were able to find that the steering wheel was indeed deformed so there must -- leading to a likelihood that someone was in the driver's seat at the time of the crash and all seatbelts post crash were found to be unbuckled.

    通過對車輛和事故殘骸的進一步調查,我們與 NTSB 和 NHTSA 以及當地警方一起檢查了這輛車,發現方向盤確實變形了,所以肯定有——導致有人坐在駕駛座上的可能性事故發生時,所有安全帶都被發現沒有扣好。

  • We're unable to recover the data from the SD card at the time of impact, but the local authorities are working on doing that, and we await their report.

    我們無法在受影響時從 SD 卡中恢復數據,但地方當局正在努力恢復,我們正在等待他們的報告。

  • As I said, we continue to hold safety in a high regard and look to improve our products in the future through this kind of data and other information from the field.

    正如我所說,我們繼續高度重視安全性,並希望通過此類數據和來自現場的其他信息在未來改進我們的產品。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • Let's go to the next question from institutional investors.

    讓我們來看看機構投資者的下一個問題。

  • The first question is, proponents of alternative grid storage technologies claim that lithium-ion is unsuited for long-term storage at scale due to vampire drain.

    第一個問題是,替代電網存儲技術的支持者聲稱,由於吸血鬼的流失,鋰離子不適合大規模長期存儲。

  • Could 4680 cells address this limitation?

    4680 單元能解決這個限制嗎?

  • Is the limitation even relevant for charging the energy equation?

    限制甚至與能量方程充電有關嗎?

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Just let me jump in on the vampire drain.

    就讓我跳進吸血鬼下水道吧。

  • That's definitely not the issue.

    這絕對不是問題。

  • Good lithium ion cell self discharges less than 0.001% of its energy per day.

    良好的鋰離子電池每天自放電少於其能量的 0.001%。

  • So it's -- this vampire drain is maybe not that...

    所以它是 - 這個吸血鬼排水管可能不是那個......

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • I just love they call it vampires.

    我只是喜歡他們稱之為吸血鬼。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Yes, I think the challenge with seasonal storage is your value proposition drops from hundreds of useful full cycles per year to less than maybe 10 or maybe even less than 5 cycles per year.

    是的,我認為季節性存儲的挑戰在於您的價值主張從每年數百個有用的完整週期下降到每年不到 10 個甚至可能不到 5 個週期。

  • So it's just a different type of technology altogether that would make sense, given that it's more than an order of magnitude, different use case.

    所以這只是一種完全不同類型的技術才有意義,因為它不僅僅是一個數量級,不同的用例。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We've got a long way to go before we're dealing with seasonal technology issues.

    在處理季節性技術問題之前,我們還有很長的路要走。

  • But certainly a way to deal with seasonal technology would be to have wind and solar erring on the side of more [sublay] latitude and -- but then across a variety of longitude.

    但當然,處理季節性技術的一種方法是讓風能和太陽能在更多 [sublay] 緯度和 - 但隨後跨越不同的經度發生錯誤。

  • So essentially, like let's say, in the U.S., for example, if there was a -- I'm not sure if you'll understand this, you can actually power the entire United States with just sort of 100 -- roughly a 100-mile -- by a 100-mile grid of solar.

    所以基本上,比如說,在美國,例如,如果有一個——我不確定你是否會理解這一點,你實際上可以用 100 來為整個美國供電——大約 100 -mile -- 由 100 英里的太陽能電網。

  • Some people don't quite understand like, well, how much solar is needed to power the United States.

    有些人不太明白,比如,美國需要多少太陽能。

  • Almost nothing of the (inaudible) of almost any country in the world.

    幾乎沒有世界上幾乎任何國家的(聽不清)。

  • The solar incident is a gigawatt per square kilometer.

    太陽入射量為每平方公里 1 吉瓦。

  • This is insane.

    瘋了吧。

  • In fact, you took the clear area, just the area or saying for nuclear power plants, the area that is considered not usable because of a nuclear power plant is there, in most cases, if you just put solar there, it would generate more power than the nuclear power plant because they typically have pretty wide clear areas.

    其實你拿了淨空區,只是說核電站的面積,因為核電站被認為不能用的區域在那裡,在大多數情況下,如果你把太陽能放在那裡,它會產生更多比核電站更強大,因為它們通常有相當寬的清晰區域。

  • So it really -- so if you have, say, 25% efficient solar panels and then those are 80% efficient in how they laid out, you're going to do about 200 megawatts per square kilometer.

    所以它真的 - 所以如果你有,比如說,25% 的太陽能電池板,然後它們的佈局效率為 80%,你將每平方公里做大約 200 兆瓦。

  • Therefore, [5 straight] kilometers is a gigawatt, which might be a typical sort of power plant.

    因此,[5 直] 公里是一個千兆瓦,這可能是一種典型的發電廠。

  • It's really not much area at all.

    面積真的不大。

  • And a lot of places can have wind and solar in place.

    很多地方都可以安裝風能和太陽能。

  • So anyway, it's entirely possible to power all of earth with a small percentage of earth's area.

    所以無論如何,完全有可能用地球面積的一小部分來為整個地球供電。

  • And then to transfer that power through high-voltage DC lines with no new technology.

    然後在沒有新技術的情況下通過高壓直流線路傳輸電力。

  • No -- you don't need like room temperature superconductors.

    不——你不需要像室溫超導體那樣。

  • This another room temperature superconductors.

    這是另一種室溫超導體。

  • This is a total -- also another myth.

    這是一個整體——也是另一個神話。

  • Room temperature superconductors, almost irrelevant, in my opinion, almost irrelevant.

    室溫超導體,幾乎無關緊要,在我看來,幾乎無關緊要。

  • Low-cost, long-distance power lines using copper or aluminum is very important.

    使用銅或鋁的低成本、長距離電力線非常重要。

  • So heating is [ice where are].

    所以加熱是[冰在哪裡]。

  • So that's current square type of resistance.

    這就是當前的方形電阻。

  • So as you increase voltage, you can drop the current dramatically and drop the heating dramatically to the point where it is of minor relevance, like maybe you lose 5% to 7% with a high-voltage DC power line, something like that.

    因此,當您增加電壓時,您可以顯著降低電流並將發熱顯著降低到無關緊要的程度,例如使用高壓直流電源線可能會損失 5% 到 7%,諸如此類。

  • So I want to be clear.

    所以我想說清楚。

  • (inaudible) no new materials are necessary.

    (聽不清)不需要新材料。

  • We just need to scale this thing up.

    我們只需要擴大規模。

  • We -- the technologies exist today to solve renewable energy.

    我們 - 當今存在的技術可以解決可再生能源問題。

  • And some people will say, well, why don't we do it?

    有些人會說,好吧,我們為什麼不這樣做呢?

  • That's because the energy basis of the earth is gigantic, super mega insanely gigantic.

    那是因為地球的能量基礎是巨大的,超級超級巨大。

  • So you can't just go and do 1 zillion terawatts overnight.

    所以你不能一夜之間就做 1 億太瓦。

  • You've got to build the production capacity for the cells, for the battery cells, for the solar cells.

    你必須建立電池、電池和太陽能電池的生產能力。

  • You've got to put that into vehicles.

    你必須把它放到車輛中。

  • You've got to put that into (inaudible) storage packs.

    您必須將其放入(聽不清)存儲包中。

  • You've got to put that into solar panels and Solarglass Roofs, and you've got to deploy all this thing -- all this stuff.

    你必須把它放入太陽能電池板和太陽能玻璃屋頂,你必須部署所有這些東西——所有這些東西。

  • But it is certainly the case that we can accelerate this.

    但我們當然可以加速這一進程。

  • And we should try to accelerate it.

    我們應該努力加速它。

  • And the right thing to do, I think, from an economic standpoint, and I think an economist to agree is to have a common tax, just as we have a tax on cigarettes and alcohol, which we think are more likely to be bad than good, and we tend to tax fruit and vegetables less.

    我認為,從經濟的角度來看,正確的做法是,我認為一位經濟學家同意徵收共同稅,就像我們對香煙和酒精徵稅一樣,我們認為這比很好,而且我們傾向於對水果和蔬菜徵稅較少。

  • It was the same should be true.

    應該是一樣的。

  • We should tax energy that we think is probably bad and support energy we think is probably good, just like cigarettes and alcohol versus fruits and vegetables.

    我們應該對我們認為可能有害的能源徵稅,並支持我們認為可能有益的能源,就像香煙和酒精對水果和蔬菜。

  • This is common sense.

    這是常識。

  • And -- but I guess on the plus side, I'm not suggesting anyone be complacent.

    而且——但我想從好的方面來說,我並不是建議任何人自滿。

  • But sustainable energy, renewable energy will be sold, it is being sold, but it matters how fast we sold it.

    但是可持續能源、可再生能源將被出售,它正在出售,但我們出售它的速度很重要。

  • And if we sold it faster, that's better for the world.

    如果我們賣得更快,那對世界就更好了。

  • There's no question in my mind whatsoever that the energy storage problem can be solved with lithium-ion batteries, zero.

    毫無疑問,鋰離子電池可以解決儲能問題,零。

  • I want to be clear, zero.

    我想說清楚,零。

  • I think the bias will tend to be towards iron-based lithium-ion cells.

    我認為偏向於鐵基鋰離子電池。

  • When we say lithium-ion, you will think lithium must be a big constituent of the cells.

    當我們說鋰離子時,您會認為鋰一定是電池的重要組成部分。

  • It's more like 1% to 2% of the cell is lithium.

    更像是電池的 1% 到 2% 是鋰。

  • But the main part of the cell is the cathode, the main mass and cost in the cells is the cathode.

    但電池的主要部分是陰極,電池的主要質量和成本是陰極。

  • For high-energy cells, like for example, what we use in most -- most Teslas have nickel-based lithium-ion cells, which have higher energy density, longer range than iron-based cells.

    對於高能電池,例如,我們最常用的電池——大多數特斯拉都使用鎳基鋰離子電池,與鐵基電池相比,這種電池具有更高的能量密度和更長的續航里程。

  • However, stationary storage, the energy density is not as important because it's just staying on the ground.

    然而,對於固定存儲,能量密度並不重要,因為它只是停留在地面上。

  • And so I think the vast majority of stationary storage will be iron-based lithium-ion cells with an iron phosphate cathode technically.

    所以我認為絕大多數固定存儲將是技術上帶有磷酸鐵陰極的鐵基鋰離子電池。

  • But I think the phosphate part is unnecessary, so is the iron ore nickel.

    但我認為磷酸鹽部分是不必要的,鐵礦石鎳也是如此。

  • I'm destroying the terminology.

    我正在破壞術語。

  • Just think of it as iron and nickel.

    把它想像成鐵和鎳。

  • And there's an insane amount of iron in the world, more iron than we could possible use.

    世界上有大量的鐵,比我們可能使用的鐵還要多。

  • And there's also more lithium than we could possibly use.

    還有比我們可能使用的更多的鋰。

  • Basically, there is no shortage of anything whatsoever in iron plus base lithium-ion cells.

    基本上,鐵加基礎鋰離子電池中不乏任何東西。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • Let's go to the next question from institutional investors, which is you suggested that between a 5x to 10x improvement is achievable in the automotive production versus the first Model 3 line on the first principles physics analysis.

    讓我們轉到機構投資者提出的下一個問題,即您建議在第一性原理物理分析中,與第一條 Model 3 生產線相比,汽車生產可以實現 5 到 10 倍的改進。

  • Where does Berlin sit relative to that limit?

    柏林相對於該限制處於什麼位置?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • I think we're still quite far away from it.

    我認為我們離它還很遠。

  • I mean the thing to bear in mind with production is -- for those who've never done production, they just don't understand how insanely hard production is.

    我的意思是在製作時要記住的事情是——對於那些從未做過製作的人來說,他們只是不明白製作有多瘋狂。

  • I want to really be very, very emphatic here.

    我想在這裡非常非常強調。

  • Prototypes are trivial, they're child's play.

    原型是微不足道的,它們是兒戲。

  • Production is hard, is very hard.

    製作很辛苦,很辛苦。

  • Now you say production at large scale with higher liability and low cost, insanely difficult.

    現在你說大規模生產具有更高的責任和低成本,非常困難。

  • But Tesla achieved on the automotive side was not to create an electric car.

    但特斯拉在汽車方面取得的成就並不是製造電動汽車。

  • The truly profound thing on the car side is that Tesla was the first American car company to achieve volume production of a car in 100 years and not go bankrupt.

    在汽車方面,真正意義深遠的是,特斯拉是第一家在 100 年內實現汽車量產且沒有破產的美國汽車公司。

  • So this is -- this -- basically, myself and many others at Tesla had to basically have several aneurysms to get this done.

    所以這是 - 這 - 基本上,我和特斯拉的許多其他人必須基本上有幾個動脈瘤才能完成這項工作。

  • It was so hard to have no idea.

    很難不知道。

  • So anyway -- and the thing about making a large complex manufacturing object is, let's say you have first-order approximation, 10,000 unique items.

    所以無論如何 - 製作大型複雜製造對象的事情是,假設您有一階近似值,10,000 個獨特的項目。

  • And even one of those items is slow, that says you wait, just one.

    甚至這些項目中的一項也很慢,也就是說你要等,就一項。

  • Doesn't matter how -- so trivial.

    沒關係 - 如此微不足道。

  • We've had production stop because of carpet in the trunk.

    由於後備箱裡有地毯,我們已經停止生產。

  • We've had production stop because of a USB cable.

    由於 USB 電纜,我們已經停止生產。

  • At one point, for Model S, the -- we literally raided every electronics store in the Bay Area.

    有一次,對於 Model S,我們確實突襲了灣區的每一家電子商店。

  • For a few days there, nobody could buy a USB cable in the Bay Area because we went and bought them all to put them in the car, literally.

    在那裡的幾天裡,沒有人能在灣區買 USB 電纜,因為我們把它們都買了下來,放在車裡,字面意思。

  • And there's like hundreds of stories like that.

    像這樣的故事有數百個。

  • So anyway, that -- solving that -- those constraints and a logistics problem that makes World War II look trivial.

    無論如何,解決這個問題的那些限制和物流問題使第二次世界大戰看起來微不足道。

  • I'm not kidding.

    我不是在開玩笑。

  • Like the scale is insane.

    就像規模是瘋狂的。

  • We're talking millions of cars, massive global supply chain, 50 countries, dozens of regulatory regimes.

    我們談論的是數以百萬計的汽車、龐大的全球供應鏈、50 個國家、數十種監管制度。

  • It's insane.

    這太瘋狂了。

  • So yes.

    所以是的。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • And last question from an institutional investor is master plan part 2 talks about an urban transport vehicle that is smaller than traditional bus with greater aerial density achieved by removing the central aisle.

    來自機構投資者的最後一個問題是總體規劃第 2 部分討論了一種比傳統公交車更小的城市交通車輛,通過移除中央過道實現了更高的空中密度。

  • Do you have any updates to share on this goal?

    你有什麼關於這個目標的更新要分享嗎?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Not at this time.

    不是這個時候。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • So let's move to analyst Q&A.

    所以讓我們轉向分析師問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • First question is from Pierre Ferragu with New Street Research.

    第一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • I'd love to get actually based on what you presented on the Battery Day.

    我很想根據你在電池日展示的內容來實際了解。

  • In the last 6, 7 months, I want -- I was wondering how much progress you've made on that front, first, in terms of process development.

    在過去的 6、7 個月裡,我想知道你們在這方面取得了多少進展,首先是在流程開發方面。

  • So how are things coming together on your pilot line?

    那麼,您的試點生產線上的情況如何?

  • Are you getting to the kind of production throughput you were aiming for?

    您是否達到了您想要的那種生產吞吐量?

  • And second and actually on your production ramp.

    其次,實際上是在您的生產坡道上。

  • So I was wondering in which sites you're ramping production capacity for the 4680 cell and where you stand on ramping up that capacity as well.

    所以我想知道您在哪些站點提高 4680 單元的生產能力,以及您站在什麼位置提高該能力。

  • And I have a quick follow-up on energy as well if that's possible.

    如果可能的話,我也會對能源進行快速跟進。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Well, so we have the -- and Drew can add to this.

    好吧,所以我們有了 -- 並且 Drew 可以添加到此。

  • But we have the -- a small sort of pilot plant, which is still big by normal standards, expected to have like a 10-gigawatt hour per year capability in Fremont, California.

    但是我們有 - 一個小型的中試工廠,按照正常標準仍然很大,預計在加利福尼亞州弗里蒙特的年發電量約為 10 吉瓦時。

  • And we made quite a few cells.

    我們製造了相當多的細胞。

  • We're not quite yet at the point where we think the cells are reliable enough to be shipped in cars, but we're getting close to that point.

    我們還沒有達到我們認為電池足夠可靠以用於汽車運輸的地步,但我們正在接近這一點。

  • And then we've already ordered most of the equipment for battery production in Berlin and then much of it for Austin as well.

    然後我們已經在柏林訂購了大部分電池生產設備,然後也為奧斯汀訂購了大部分設備。

  • So we really don't flick the nitty-gritty elements.

    所以我們真的不會輕彈細節元素。

  • But overall, I think we still feel quite optimistic about this achieving volume production of the 4680 next year.

    但總的來說,我認為我們仍然對明年實現 4680 的量產感到非常樂觀。

  • What do you think?

    你怎麼認為?

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes, thanks.

    是啊謝謝。

  • Just one thing I would add is there's been a lot of questions about yields.

    我要補充的一件事是關於收益率的問題很多。

  • Actually, I noticed people asking about that.

    事實上,我注意到有人問這個。

  • The yield progress has been really strong every day, and we were really still in commissioning phase.

    產量每天都非常強勁,我們仍然處於調試階段。

  • We were really still in commissioning phase with most of the tools to the point where we're confident that the yield trajectory aligns with our internal cost projections.

    我們確實仍處於大多數工具的調試階段,以至於我們確信收益軌跡與我們的內部成本預測一致。

  • We did talk about yield also at Battery Day, which is one of the reasons why it's useful to check in on that.

    我們確實也在電池日討論了產量,這是檢查它有用的原因之一。

  • It takes a while, as Elon just mentioned, to go from prototype to production.

    正如 Elon 剛剛提到的,從原型到生產需要一段時間。

  • And it's not just parts.

    這不僅僅是零件。

  • It's processes, it's equipment.

    是流程,是設備。

  • But as we've matured the process equipment, we've gotten to where we need to be on the yield side.

    但是隨著我們工藝設備的成熟,我們已經達到了在產量方面需要達到的水平。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And basically, this is just a guess because we don't know for sure, but it appears as though we're about 12 -- probably not more than 18 months away from volume production of the 4680.

    基本上,這只是一個猜測,因為我們不確定,但看起來我們距離 4680 的批量生產大約有 12 個月——可能不會超過 18 個月。

  • Now at the same time, we are actually trying to have our cell supply of partners ramp up their supply as much as possible.

    現在與此同時,我們實際上正在努力讓我們的合作夥伴的電池供應量盡可能地增加。

  • So this is not something that is to the exclusion of suppliers.

    所以這並不是排除供應商的事情。

  • It is in conjunction with suppliers.

    它與供應商合作。

  • So we want to be super clear about that.

    所以我們要非常清楚這一點。

  • This is not about replacing suppliers.

    這不是要更換供應商。

  • It is about supplementing the suppliers.

    這是關於補充供應商。

  • So -- and we have a very strong partnership with CATL, with Panasonic and LG.

    所以 - 我們與 CATL、松下和 LG 建立了非常牢固的合作夥伴關係。

  • And we would -- our request to our strategic partners for cell supply is please make us -- please supply us with as much as you possibly can.

    我們會 - 我們對我們的電池供應戰略合作夥伴的要求是請讓我們 - 請盡可能多地供應我們。

  • Provided the price is affordable, we will buy everything that they can make.

    只要價格實惠,我們會買他們能做的一切。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And specific to that, we're on track to more than double the supplier capacity over the next [l3].

    具體而言,我們有望在接下來的 [l3] 中將供應商的產能提高一倍以上。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Yes, exactly.

    對,就是這樣。

  • We do expect from suppliers willing to receive double the cell output next year versus this year.

    我們確實希望供應商願意在明年獲得比今年翻倍的電池產量。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And I had a quick follow-up on maybe, Zach, for you on your energy business.

    我對扎克的能源業務進行了快速跟進。

  • So I understand like the negative gross margin with Solar Roof ran.

    所以我理解太陽能屋頂的毛利率為負。

  • But I was wondering what do gross margin look like there when you look at the storage business and where you -- what's your ambition in terms of gross margin in that business as, I guess, it's going to grow in the mix in coming years.

    但是我想知道當您查看存儲業務以及您在哪裡時,那裡的毛利率是什麼樣的 - 您對該業務的毛利率的雄心是什麼,我猜,它會在未來幾年的組合中增長。

  • So it's important for long-term modeling.

    所以這對於長期建模很重要。

  • Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

    Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We're seeing a lot of...

    我們看到很多...

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • We're aiming for comparable margins in storage as in vehicle.

    我們的目標是在存儲方面實現與車輛相當的利潤率。

  • But it is important to bear in mind that vehicle is more mature than the storage.

    但重要的是要記住,車輛比存儲更成熟。

  • So -- we're already are at margins with the Powerwall.

    所以 - 我們已經在 Powerwall 的邊緣。

  • But some additional work is needed for the Megapack to achieve good margins.

    但是,Megapack 需要做一些額外的工作才能獲得良好的利潤。

  • Yes, Drew, what do you think?

    是的,德魯,你怎麼看?

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Sorry, just jumping in, Elon.

    對不起,只是跳進來,埃隆。

  • Absolutely agree.

    絕對同意。

  • Powerwall is mature.

    Powerwall 已經成熟。

  • We've been producing Powerwall 2 for 3 years now and we're at good margins there.

    我們已經生產 Powerwall 2 3 年了,我們在那裡的利潤率很高。

  • But Megapack has more room to go to achieve our targets.

    但是 Megapack 有更多的空間來實現我們的目標。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • We have a clear runway for improving the cost per the megawatt hour of the Megapack.

    我們有一條清晰的跑道來提高 Megapack 的每兆瓦時成本。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • Yes, we do.

    是的,我們有。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • From Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

    來自 Rod Lache 和 Wolfe Research。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I was hoping maybe just, first, you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about the rollout of version 9 of FSD and the transition to the subscription model.

    我希望也許只是,首先,您可以談談您如何考慮推出 FSD 版本 9 以及過渡到訂閱模式。

  • It sounds like some of this is about to roll out next month.

    聽起來其中一些即將在下個月推出。

  • I'm not sure if that's the subscription model, but maybe you could just spend a little time talking about how impactful you expect that to be.

    我不確定這是否是訂閱模式,但也許您可以花一點時間談談您期望它的影響力。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • So go ahead, guys.

    所以繼續吧,伙計們。

  • Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

    Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

  • Yes, we're working on getting FSD subscription out.

    是的,我們正在努力讓 FSD 訂閱退出。

  • There's a couple of internal technical dependencies, but from a business model perspective, that's aligned, and we're hoping to roll that out soon.

    有一些內部技術依賴,但從商業模式的角度來看,這是一致的,我們希望盡快推出。

  • The key thing that I say here, there's a lot of potential for recurring revenue based on FSD subscription.

    我在這裡說的關鍵是,基於 FSD 訂閱的經常性收入有很大的潛力。

  • If you look at the size of our fleet and you look at the number of customers who did not purchase FSD upfront or on a lease and maybe want to experiment with FSD, this is a great option for them.

    如果您查看我們車隊的規模,並查看未預先或租賃購買 FSD 並且可能想嘗試 FSD 的客戶數量,這對他們來說是一個不錯的選擇。

  • One of the things we'll need to keep an eye on is a potential transition from cash purchases of FSD subscription over to -- or cash purchases of FSD who may move over to FSD subscription.

    我們需要關注的一件事是從 FSD 訂閱的現金購買轉變為 - 或可能轉移到 FSD 訂閱的 FSD 的現金購買。

  • And so there could be a period of time in which cash reduces in the near term and then as the portfolio of subscription customers builds up, then that becomes a pretty strong business for us over time.

    因此,在短期內現金可能會減少一段時間,然後隨著訂閱客戶組合的增加,隨著時間的推移,這對我們來說將成為一項非常強大的業務。

  • But we're hoping to get this launched pretty soon and see what the response is to it.

    但我們希望盡快推出它,看看人們對此有何反應。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • And I was hoping, Zach, maybe you can just talk a little bit about OpEx.

    我希望,扎克,也許你可以談談運營支出。

  • There was a noticeable increase, even excluding SBC.

    即使不包括 SBC,也有明顯的增加。

  • Obviously, a lot going on this quarter, but can you maybe just talk a little bit about how we should be thinking about that going forward?

    顯然,本季度發生了很多事情,但您能否談談我們應該如何考慮未來?

  • Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

    Zachary J. Kirkhorn - Master of Coin

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • On the R&D side, what we're seeing, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, is kind of a convergence of a series of programs that are happening.

    在研發方面,正如我在開場白中提到的,我們看到的是一系列正在發生的項目的融合。

  • And our R&D OpEx spend kind of correlates to where we are in the product life cycle on different programs.

    我們的研發運營支出與我們在不同項目的產品生命週期中所處的位置有關。

  • And so we're kind of at the tail end of investments in, what we call internally Palladium, which is the new Model S and Model X. And so we expect that to decrease over time, but it was high in Q1 for a lot of the reasons that Elon had mentioned.

    所以我們處於投資的尾端,我們內部稱之為鈀金,這是新的 Model S 和 Model X。所以我們預計隨著時間的推移會減少,但在第一季度一直處於高位埃隆提到的原因。

  • We're also getting very heavy into 4680 development that Drew and team are working on and the associated structural battery pack that goes along with that.

    我們也非常重視 Drew 和團隊正在研究的 4680 開發以及與之相關的相關結構電池組。

  • And so these are new technologies, not only new to Tesla, but new to the industry.

    所以這些都是新技術,不僅對特斯拉來說是新的,對整個行業來說也是新的。

  • And so we're investing heavily there on an R&D side to work out those kinks.

    因此,我們在研發方面進行了大量投資,以解決這些問題。

  • And spend along in those areas should continue over time as we continue to work through the development cycle of those.

    隨著我們繼續完成這些領域的開發週期,在這些領域的支出應該會隨著時間的推移而繼續。

  • And then I also mentioned Elon talked a bit about Dojo and the potential there.

    然後我還提到 Elon 談到了 Dojo 和那裡的潛力。

  • So from neural net investments and custom silicon investments, these continue to be areas that we spend on and make investments in.

    因此,從神經網絡投資和定制矽投資來看,這些仍然是我們花費和投資的領域。

  • On the SG&A side, the business is pivoting very quickly to be global.

    在 SG&A 方面,該業務正在迅速轉向全球。

  • And China is ramping quite quickly.

    而且中國的增長速度非常快。

  • And we're trying to make sure that we are staying ahead of the volume so that we have the right sales capacity, store capacity there, local investments and IT and others to manage the growth, such that as the growth comes, the execution challenges are smaller than maybe in similar periods of growth that we've seen in the past.

    我們正在努力確保我們在銷量上保持領先,以便我們擁有合適的銷售能力、商店容量、本地投資和 IT 以及其他管理增長的工具,以便隨著增長的到來,執行挑戰可能比我們過去看到的類似增長時期要小。

  • And so we're making investments there ahead of the growth.

    所以我們在增長之前在那裡進行投資。

  • And overall, as we looked at OpEx as a percentage of revenue over the course of the year, we do expect to see a substantial drop from 2020 to 2021 as the volumes in the latter part of the year pick up.

    總體而言,當我們將運營支出視為全年收入的百分比時,我們確實預計隨著今年下半年的銷量回升,2020 年到 2021 年會出現大幅下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • From Dan Levy from Crédit Suisse.

    來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Dan Levy。

  • Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Two questions.

    兩個問題。

  • One is on COGS.

    一種是在 COGS 上。

  • I think we've gotten from Battery Day a pretty good feel about the potential for COGS reduction related to powertrain.

    我認為我們從 Battery Day 中對與動力系統相關的 COGS 降低潛力有了很好的感覺。

  • But I'd like to get a sense of the path to reducing COGS, ex powertrain, as you'd still need a meaningful reduction on that front to make the math work on a $25,000 vehicle.

    但我想了解減少 COGS(不包括動力總成)的途徑,因為您仍然需要在這方面進行有意義的減少,才能使 25,000 美元的車輛的數學計算有效。

  • So what levers do you have to reducing your cost, ex powertrain?

    那麼你有什麼槓桿來降低你的成本,除了動力系統?

  • Is it just more scale, better supplier pricing?

    僅僅是規模更大、供應商定價更優惠嗎?

  • Or is it just based on ongoing cost reduction?

    還是僅僅基於持續的成本降低?

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • I mean I think all of the above.

    我的意思是我認為以上所有。

  • Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

    Andrew D. Baglino - SVP of Powertrain & Energy Engineering

  • Yes, I mean on the vehicle side, there's plenty of opportunity as well.

    是的,我的意思是在車輛方面,也有很多機會。

  • Obviously, building a car like a Model S lot is quite complex and has various moving parts.

    顯然,製造像 Model S 這樣的汽車非常複雜,並且有各種活動部件。

  • Model 3 and Model Y were steps of improvement in that.

    Model 3 和 Model Y 是這方面的改進步驟。

  • But when you look at some of the other advancements that we're including in the Model Y, factories into Austin and Berlin, we've reduced the body count by as much as 60%, and the park cost money.

    但是,當您查看我們在 Model Y 中包含的其他一些改進、在奧斯汀和柏林的工廠時,我們已經將車身數量減少了 60%,並且公園需要花錢。

  • So we continue to find optimizations there as well as we get the economies of scale when we start to talk about the volumes we're considering worldwide with 4 factories building the same vehicle.

    因此,當我們開始談論我們正在考慮在全球範圍內建造相同車輛的 4 家工廠的產量時,我們將繼續在那裡尋找優化並獲得規模經濟。

  • So both of those things on the vehicle side will improve our COGS as well, and powertrain continues to be integrated into that.

    因此,車輛方面的這兩件事也將改善我們的 COGS,並且動力系統將繼續融入其中。

  • Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Dan Meir Levy - Director & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • And then just related.

    然後只是相關。

  • As you see Berlin and Austin ramp, I'd like to just get a sense on the comparison of Fremont versus the new capacity.

    當你看到柏林和奧斯汀的斜坡時,我想了解一下弗里蒙特與新容量的比較。

  • Obviously, Fremont non-optimized because you bought the old NUMMI facility.

    顯然,弗里蒙特未進行優化,因為您購買了舊的 NUMMI 設施。

  • You had to retrofit that to your need.

    您必鬚根據需要對其進行改造。

  • So maybe you can give us a sense of how your new capacity is going to differ versus Fremont, what are the areas that you have efficiencies that you previously didn't have and maybe how much does that add up to improved COGS over time to help you achieve that $25,000 vehicle.

    因此,也許您可以讓我們了解您的新產能與 Fremont 相比有何不同,您在哪些方面擁有以前沒有的效率,以及隨著時間的推移,這些加起來有多少可以改善 COGS 以提供幫助您獲得了價值 25,000 美元的車輛。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think we don't want to talk too much about future product development.

    我想我們不想過多談論未來的產品開發。

  • The earnings call is not the right place for -- to make major product announcement.

    財報電話會議不是發布主要產品的合適場所。

  • So yes.

    所以是的。

  • We'll get there, but we'll talk about it later.

    我們會到達那裡,但我們稍後再談。

  • Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

    Martin Viecha - Senior Director for IR

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • Unfortunately, this is all the time we have for today.

    不幸的是,這就是我們今天的全部時間。

  • Thank you very much for dialing in and for listening, and we'll speak to you again in about 3 months.

    非常感謝您撥入和聆聽,我們將在大約 3 個月後再次與您通話。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

    Elon R. Musk - Technoking of Tesla

  • Thanks, everyone.

    感謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for participating.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連接。