特斯拉 (TSLA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2022 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update that we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收聽特斯拉 2022 年第三季度網絡直播。我是投資者關係副總裁 Martin Viecha，今天加入我的還有 Elon Musk、Zachary Kirkhorn 和其他一些高管。我們在下午 3 點左右公佈了第三季度的業績。我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布的更新中的中央時間。

During the call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the Q&A session portion of today's call, please limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up. (Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。在今天電話會議的問答環節中，請限制自己回答 1 個問題和 1 個跟進。 （操作員說明）但在我們進入問答環節之前，Elon 有一些開場白。埃隆?

Thank you, Martin. So just to do a Q3 recap. Q3 was another record quarter on many levels. We had our industry-leading operating margin reach 17%. And our free cash flow surpassed $3 billion in Q3 and approached $9 billion in the past 12 months. As our factories ramp, we're looking forward to a record-breaking Q4. So it really, knock on wood, it looks like we'll have an epic end of year. So Q4 is looking extremely good.

謝謝你，馬丁。所以只是做一個第三季度的回顧。第三季度在許多層面上都是另一個創紀錄的季度。我們擁有行業領先的營業利潤率達到 17%。我們的自由現金流在第三季度超過 30 億美元，在過去 12 個月內接近 90 億美元。隨著我們工廠的擴建，我們期待著創紀錄的第四季度。所以真的，敲木頭，看起來我們將有一個史詩般的年底。所以第四季度看起來非常好。

On the production ramp, Giga Berlin achieved another milestone of 2,000 cars made in a week with very good quality and is ramping rapidly. Giga Austin or Giga Texas should reach this milestone very soon. And in fact just yesterday, we extrapolated yesterday's hold rate, it would be 2,000.

在生產坡道上，Giga Berlin 實現了一周內生產 2,000 輛汽車的又一個里程碑，質量非常好，並且正在迅速增加。 Giga Austin 或 Giga Texas 應該很快達到這個里程碑。事實上，就在昨天，我們推斷昨天的持有率是 2,000。

Our production of 4680 cells has tripled in Q3 compared to the previous quarter. We are finally gaining rapid traction on the 4680 cell. And its output is growing rapidly, and we expect it to start incorporating in cars and having it be a significant portion of our production here in Texas in the coming months. We also have our second generation of manufacturing equipment for 4680 cells in Texas, which continues to show great progress along with our original pilot line in Fremont.

與上一季度相比，我們在第三季度的 4680 電池產量增加了兩倍。我們終於在 4680 電池上獲得了快速發展。它的產量正在迅速增長，我們預計它將開始融入汽車，並在未來幾個月內成為我們在德克薩斯州生產的重要組成部分。我們還在德克薩斯州擁有用於 4680 電池的第二代製造設備，與我們在弗里蒙特的原始試驗線一起繼續顯示出巨大的進步。

The Fremont factory team once again reached record production in Q3. And we intend to keep raising production in Fremont.

弗里蒙特工廠團隊在第三季度再次達到創紀錄的產量。我們打算繼續提高弗里蒙特的產量。

Regarding Autopilot, at the end of September, we hosted our second AI Day and showed the first prototype of our Optimus robot, released updates on our training computer and high range of improvements of full self-driving software.

關於 Autopilot，在 9 月底，我們舉辦了第二個 AI Day，展示了我們的 Optimus 機器人的第一個原型，發布了我們的訓練計算機的更新以及全自動駕駛軟件的大量改進。

Our vehicles have now driven nearly 60 miles in full self-driving beta mode, and this number continues to grow exponentially. Our goal with that AI Day was to post recruiting, and we've seen a massive influx of world-class artificial intelligence engineer and scientist resume. So it generated a tremendous amount of interest from some of the best AI researchers in the world. I can't emphasize the importance of this enough because I think it finally has become clear to the smallest AI technologists in the world that Tesla is among the very best.

我們的車輛現在已經在完全自動駕駛測試模式下行駛了近 60 英里，而且這個數字還在繼續呈指數增長。我們在那個人工智能日的目標是發布招聘信息，我們已經看到大量世界級的人工智能工程師和科學家的簡歷湧入。因此，它引起了世界上一些最優秀的人工智能研究人員的極大興趣。這一點的重要性我怎麼強調都不為過，因為我認為世界上最小的 AI 技術人員終於清楚地知道，特斯拉是最好的之一。

So this quarter, we expect to go to wide release of full self-driving beta in North America. So anyone who has ordered a full self-driving Beta -- full self-driving will have access to the FSD Beta program this year, probably about a month from now. So and then, obviously, any new -- anyone who buys a car and purchase a full self-driving option will immediately have that available to them.

因此，本季度，我們預計將在北美廣泛發布全自動駕駛測試版。因此，任何訂購了完全自動駕駛測試版的人——完全自動駕駛今年都可以訪問 FSD 測試版計劃，大概從現在開始大約一個月。很明顯，任何新的——任何購買汽車併購買完全自動駕駛選項的人都會立即獲得該選項。

So the safety that we're seeing when the car is in FSD mode is actually significantly greater than the safety we're seeing when it is not, which is a key threshold for going to a wide Beta.

因此，我們在汽車處於 FSD 模式時看到的安全性實際上明顯高於我們在未處於 FSD 模式時看到的安全性，這是進入廣泛 Beta 版的關鍵閾值。

Let's see, with respect to demand. We've got a lot of questions about demand in recent weeks. I can't emphasize enough, we have excellent demand for Q4, and we expect to sell every car that we make for as far in the future as we can see. So the factories are running at full speed, and we're delivering a recovery make and keeping operating margins strong. We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So we're about a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet.

讓我們看看，就需求而言。最近幾週，我們有很多關於需求的問題。我怎麼強調都不為過，我們對第四季度的需求非常好，我們希望在我們能看到的未來銷售我們製造的每一輛車。因此，工廠正在全速運轉，我們正在實現復甦並保持強勁的營業利潤率。我們仍然只佔道路上所有車輛的一小部分。在路上的 20 億輛卡車中，我們只有大約 350 萬輛。因此，要達到全球機隊的 1%，我們還有很長的路要走。

Let's see. Kind of based on my -- what people -- based on many things, but certainly questions I get on Twitter about buybacks. And I think every one of our Board members has gotten questions about buybacks. The -- we've debated the buyback idea extensively at the Board level. The Board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback. But we want to work through the right process to do a buyback, but it's certainly possible for us to do a buyback on the order of $5 billion to $10 billion. Even in the downside scenario next year, even given if next year is a very difficult year, we still have the ability to do a $5 billion to $10 billion buyback. This is obviously pending Board review and approval. So it's likely that we'll do some meaningful buyback.

讓我們來看看。有點基於我的——什麼人——基於很多事情，但肯定是我在 Twitter 上收到的關於回購的問題。我認為我們的每一位董事會成員都收到了有關回購的問題。 - 我們已經在董事會層面廣泛討論了回購想法。董事會普遍認為進行回購是有意義的。但我們希望通過正確的流程進行回購，但我們當然有可能進行 50 億至 100 億美元的回購。即使在明年的下行情景中，即使明年是非常困難的一年，我們仍然有能力進行 50 億至 100 億美元的回購。這顯然有待董事會審查和批准。因此，我們很可能會進行一些有意義的回購。

So in conclusion, while the market theme revolve around the short term, it's very important to focus on the long term. I can't emphasize this enough with investors. And I think long-time investors, obviously recognize this with Tesla. We have our sort of local ups and downs, but long-term trend has been extremely good. And several years ago I said, I think, on our earnings call, that I thought it was possible for Tesla to be worth more than Apple, which was then the highest cap company, I think, in the market. And Apple, at that time, I think was around $700 billion. And I said it required incredible execution, at least some luck.

所以總而言之，雖然市場主題圍繞著短期，但關注長期非常重要。我不能對投資者強調這一點。我認為長期投資者顯然認識到特斯拉的這一點。我們有我們的局部起伏，但長期趨勢非常好。幾年前，我在財報電話會議上說過，我認為特斯拉的價值可能超過蘋果，我認為蘋果是當時市值最高的公司。而當時的蘋果，我認為大約是 7000 億美元。我說這需要令人難以置信的執行力，至少需要一些運氣。

And we didn't only achieve that. Tesla went, in fact, or passed Apple's market cap at the time. And now I am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple's current market cap. In fact, I see a potential path with Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. So now that doesn't mean it will happen or that will be easy. In fact, I think it will be very difficult. It will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, managed expansion and, always, luck.

我們不僅實現了這一目標。事實上，特斯拉當時已經或超過了蘋果的市值。現在我認為我們可以遠遠超過蘋果目前的市值。事實上，我認為特斯拉的潛在價值可能超過蘋果和沙特阿美的總和。所以現在這並不意味著它會發生或者這很容易。事實上，我認為這將非常困難。這將需要大量的工作、一些非常有創意的新產品、有管理的擴張，而且總是需要運氣。

But for the first time, I am seeing -- I see a way for Tesla to be -- let's say, roughly twice the value of Saudi Aramco. I think that's -- I haven't quite seen that yet. I mean this is the first time I've seen that potential.

但這是我第一次看到——我看到了特斯拉的一種方式——比如說，它的價值大約是沙特阿美公司的兩倍。我認為那是 - 我還沒有完全看到。我的意思是這是我第一次看到這種潛力。

So we have an incredible product portfolio. I think we've got the most exciting product portfolio of any company on earth, some of which you've heard about, some of which you haven't. We're in the final lap for Cybertruck. We're building a Cybertruck line here at Giga Texas Austin and making a lot of progress in the robotaxi platform design.

因此，我們擁有令人難以置信的產品組合。我認為我們擁有世界上任何公司中最令人興奮的產品組合，其中一些你聽說過，一些你還沒有聽說過。 Cybertruck 進入最後一圈。我們正在 Giga Texas Austin 建設 Cybertruck 生產線，並在機器人出租車平台設計方面取得了很大進展。

And then with respect to batteries, we're moving as fast as possible to have -- to achieve 1,000 gigawatt hours a year of production capacity in the United States, vertically integrated. And our cap load refining, we're moving a ton of speed to do that.

然後在電池方面，我們正在盡可能快地實現——在美國實現每年 1,000 吉瓦時的垂直整合產能。我們的上限負載精煉，我們正在加快速度來做到這一點。

So I think it's an incredibly exciting future and really an unprecedented future. None of this would be possible without the incredible team that we have here at Tesla. So I'd like to give a huge shout-out to all of our factory employees, engineers, executives and the whole Tesla team. You guys rock. You're the ones that make it happen. Thank you. Thank you, everyone.

所以我認為這是一個令人難以置信的令人興奮的未來，也是一個前所未有的未來。如果沒有我們在特斯拉這裡擁有的令人難以置信的團隊，這一切都不可能實現。因此，我想向我們所有的工廠員工、工程師、高管和整個特斯拉團隊大聲疾呼。你們真棒。你是讓這一切發生的人。謝謝你。謝謝大家。

Thank you very much. And Zach has some opening remarks as well.

非常感謝。 Zach 也有一些開場白。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. Just to continue on Elon's theme, I just want to thank and congratulate the Tesla team for achieving record vehicle deliveries, production and storage deployments in the third quarter.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。繼續 Elon 的主題，我只想感謝和祝賀特斯拉團隊在第三季度實現了創紀錄的車輛交付、生產和存儲部署。

On automotive profitability, our GAAP operating margin was 17.2%, with automotive gross margin at 27.9%. Operating margin is one of our best yet, with improvements in operating leverage. However, Austin and Berlin ramp costs weighed on our margins, particularly if you compare it to Q1.

在汽車盈利能力方面，我們的 GAAP 營業利潤率為 17.2%，汽車毛利率為 27.9%。經營利潤率是我們迄今為止最好的之一，經營槓桿有所提高。然而，奧斯汀和柏林的坡道成本影響了我們的利潤率，尤其是與第一季度相比。

Removing regulatory credits and Austin and Berlin, our operating margins would have been our strongest yet and auto gross margin would have been nearly 30%. Note that while small and growing, each car we build in Austin and Berlin is contributing positively to profitability.

除去監管信貸以及奧斯汀和柏林，我們的營業利潤率將是我們迄今為止最強勁的，汽車毛利率將接近 30%。請注意，雖然我們在奧斯汀和柏林製造的每輛汽車都很小而且還在增長，但它們都在為盈利做出積極貢獻。

We also continue to experience margin headwinds associated with macroeconomic conditions, as we've discussed at length on prior calls, In particular, raw materials, logistics and foreign exchange was a big part of this past quarter.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中詳細討論的那樣，我們還繼續遇到與宏觀經濟狀況相關的利潤逆風，特別是原材料、物流和外匯是上個季度的重要組成部分。

On energy profitability, we achieved our strongest gross profit yet for this business, driven primarily by record volumes of our Megapack and Powerwall products. Our free cash flows were also a record despite an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter, which has a negative impact on working capital.

在能源盈利能力方面，我們在這項業務中實現了迄今為止最強勁的毛利潤，這主要得益於我們創紀錄的 Megapack 和 Powerwall 產品銷量。儘管在本季度末過境汽車有所增加，但我們的自由現金流量也創歷史新高，這對營運資金產生了負面影響。

Specifically on cars in transit, as noted in our press release on October 2, we've started to experience limits on outbound logistics capacity which we didn't anticipate. This issue is particularly present for ships from Shanghai to Europe and local trucking within certain parts of the U.S. and Europe. Our historical operating pattern of batch building by delivery region leads to extreme concentrations of outbound logistics needs in the final weeks of each quarter. Just to put this in perspective, roughly 2/3 of our Q3 deliveries occurred in September and 1/3 in the final 2 weeks. As a result, we have begun to smooth the regional builds throughout the quarter to reduce our peak needs for outbound logistics. We expect this to simplify our operations, reduce costs and improve the experience of our customers.

特別是在運輸中的汽車，正如我們在 10 月 2 日的新聞稿中所指出的，我們已經開始遇到出境物流能力的限制，這是我們沒有預料到的。從上海到歐洲的船舶以及美國和歐洲某些地區的本地卡車運輸尤其存在這個問題。我們過去按交付區域批量構建的運營模式導致每個季度最後幾週的出境物流需求極度集中。從這個角度來看，我們第三季度大約 2/3 的交付發生在 9 月，1/3 發生在最後兩週。因此，我們已經開始在整個季度平滑區域建設，以減少我們對出境物流的高峰需求。我們希望這能簡化我們的運營、降低成本並改善客戶體驗。

As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in production this year, although we are tracking supply chain risks, which are beyond our control. On the delivery side, we do expect to be just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year, as noted, just above. This means that, again, you should expect a gap between production and deliveries in Q4, and those cars in transit will be delivered shortly to their customers upon arrival to their destination in Q1.

展望未來，我們的計劃表明，我們今年有望實現 50% 的年產量增長，儘管我們正在跟踪我們無法控制的供應鏈風險。在交付方面，我們確實預計由於年底運輸車輛的增加，增長將略低於 50%，如上所述。這意味著，您應該再次預計第四季度的生產和交付之間存在差距，並且這些在途汽車將在第一季度抵達目的地後很快交付給他們的客戶。

Boston and Berlin ramp costs will continue to weigh on margins, although we expect the impact to be less than what we saw in Q3. And as Elon mentioned, we are continuing to build as many cars as possible while also maintaining strong operating margins. Thank you.

波士頓和柏林的坡道成本將繼續對利潤率造成壓力，儘管我們預計影響將小於我們在第三季度看到的影響。正如埃隆所說，我們將繼續製造盡可能多的汽車，同時保持強勁的營業利潤率。謝謝你。

Thank you very much. And let's go first to the shareholder questions. The first shareholder question is: given the stringent battery content and assembly requirements for consumer tax credit eligibility under the Inflation Reduction Act, can you speak to Tesla's ability to meet those thresholds in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 through your existing and planned supply chain?

非常感謝。讓我們先談談股東問題。第一個股東問題是：鑑於《降低通貨膨脹法案》對消費者稅收抵免資格的嚴格電池含量和組裝要求，您能否談談特斯拉通過您現有和計劃的供應鏈在 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年分別達到這些門檻的能力?

Well, yes, I mean I think -- just at a high level I'd say, we do expect to fully meet the IRA's requirements. Do you want to add?

嗯，是的，我的意思是我認為 - 只是在高水平上，我會說，我們確實希望完全滿足 IRA 的要求。您要添加嗎？

Yes. We view that passing of the Inflation Reduction Act there's a significant boost towards accelerating automation, while also scaling the battery supply chain at large in the United States. We expect Treasury to publish detailed guidance by the end of the year. Until such time, it's difficult to fully determine the eligibility criteria, but we believe Tesla is very well positioned to capture a significant share of that for solar storage and also electric vehicles.

是的。我們認為，通過《減少通貨膨脹法案》將大大推動自動化的加速發展，同時也擴大了美國整個電池供應鏈的規模。我們預計財政部將在年底前發布詳細的指引。在此之前，很難完全確定資格標準，但我們相信特斯拉非常有能力在太陽能存儲和電動汽車領域佔據相當大的份額。

Yes, I'd like to say we're -- like I said earlier, we're going to go basically pedal to the metal as fast as humanly possible to get to 1,000 gigawatt hours a year of production in the U.S., vertically integrated.

是的，我想說我們 - 就像我之前說的那樣，我們將基本上以人力盡可能快地踩到金屬，以在美國實現每年 1,000 吉瓦時的生產，垂直整合.

Thank you. Let's go to the next question. The next question is, what updates can you offer on the backlog and the recent order intake trends, especially outside of the U.S. and especially in China?

謝謝你。讓我們進入下一個問題。下一個問題是，您可以就積壓訂單和最近的訂單接收趨勢提供哪些更新，尤其是在美國以外，尤其是在中國？

Well, it's -- there's definitely -- China is experiencing a reverse of a recession of sorts, which is property market, simply from a property market mostly. And Europe has recession of sorts driven by energy. The U.S. actually isn't -- North America has a pretty good health. The Fed is raising interest rates more than they should, but I think they'll eventually realize that and bring it back down again.

嗯，它——肯定是——中國正在經歷某種衰退的逆轉，即房地產市場，主要來自房地產市場。歐洲也出現了由能源驅動的各種衰退。美國實際上不是——北美的健康狀況非常好。美聯儲加息的幅度超出了應有的水平，但我認為他們最終會意識到這一點並再次將其降下來。

Demand is a little higher than it would otherwise be. But as I said earlier, we are extremely confident of a great Q4, and we anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries by -- on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see.

需求比其他情況要高一些。但正如我之前所說，我們對第四季度的表現非常有信心，我們預計我們的汽車生產銷售交付量將繼續增長——就我們所見的未來而言，平均每年增長 50%。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Actually I want to caveat, I should say, growing production by 30% every year because deliveries -- we're trying to smooth out the deliveries and not have this crazy delivery way at the end of every quarter. So in fact, we're just fundamentally running out of -- there weren't enough boats, there weren't enough trains, there weren't enough car carriers to actually support the wave because it got too big. So whether we like it or not, we actually have to smooth out the delivery of cars intra-quarter because there aren't just enough transportation objects to move them around.

實際上我想提醒一下，我應該說，每年將產量增長 30%，因為交付——我們正在努力使交付順利進行，而不是在每個季度末都有這種瘋狂的交付方式。所以事實上，我們只是從根本上用完了——沒有足夠的船，沒有足夠的火車，沒有足夠的汽車運輸車來支撐這波浪潮，因為它太大了。因此，無論我們喜不喜歡，我們實際上都必須在季度內平滑交付汽車，因為沒有足夠的運輸物體來移動它們。

Thank you. The next question is, do you still expect 50% annualized growth for the foreseeable future? Is this also true specifically for the Chinese domestic market? Do you expect to need to cut the vehicle prices or offer incentives in any market to sustain demand? Or has demand remained stable? Or is it even rising? There are 3 questions there.

謝謝你。下一個問題是，在可預見的未來，您是否仍預計 50% 的年增長率？這也是專門針對中國國內市場的嗎？您是否預計需要在任何市場降低車輛價格或提供激勵措施以維持需求？還是需求保持穩定？或者它甚至在上升？那裡有3個問題。

Well, like I said, we want to sort of focus on a high level on what we think is possible here. To the best of our knowledge, we believe that Tesla will continue to grow deliveries and revenue production at a 50% or greater compound annual growth rate. It might occasionally be a year that is a little less, and then some years would be maybe a little more or a lot more. In some of our out-year planning, we see potential annual growth rates that are in excess of 50%.

好吧，就像我說的那樣，我們希望將重點放在我們認為可能的高水平上。據我們所知，我們相信特斯拉將繼續以 50% 或更高的複合年增長率增長交付量和收入。有時可能會少一點，然後有些年可能會多一點或多一點。在我們的一些年度計劃中，我們看到潛在的年增長率超過 50%。

Thank you. The next question is, can you tell us more about the product feature road map beyond new models and FSD, and especially for interior and powertrain of existing vehicle models?

謝謝你。下一個問題是，您能告訴我們更多關於新車型和FSD之外的產品功能路線圖，特別是現有車型的內飾和動力總成嗎？

We could, but we won't. Sorry, guys, we can't like jumping on, on future product announcements.

我們可以，但我們不會。抱歉，伙計們，我們不喜歡在未來的產品公告上繼續前進。

Committed to continuing on.

致力於繼續。

Yes, we obviously are, yes. But we'll also be committed to continuous growth. Yes, at Tesla, we've always been committed to continuous improvement. So friends might have asked me like, when should I buy a car, I'm like, now. Because we just keep improving the cars. Always been the latest Tesla. Yes, there's still the latest Tesla.

是的，我們顯然是，是的。但我們也將致力於持續增長。是的，在特斯拉，我們一直致力於持續改進。所以朋友們可能會問我，我應該什麼時候買車，我想，現在。因為我們只是不斷改進汽車。一直是最新的特斯拉。是的，還有最新的特斯拉。

I don't really -- yes, -- around the gain, we do have some big technology upgrade like Plaid. And by the way, I think the Plaid Model S and X are the best cars on earth. There's nothing even close, in my opinion. Just try one. Epic.

我真的不——是的，——圍繞收益，我們確實有一些像格子佈這樣的重大技術升級。順便說一句，我認為 Plaid Model S 和 X 是地球上最好的汽車。在我看來，沒有什麼比這更接近了。試一試。史詩。

Thank you. The next question is, we keep hearing of dire energy crisis in Germany this winter. What are Tesla's plans to combat power cuts? And will there be any delays in ramp-up in production from Giga Berlin because of this?

謝謝你。下一個問題是，我們不斷聽到德國今年冬天出現嚴重的能源危機。特斯拉應對停電的計劃是什麼？ Giga Berlin 的產量會因此而延遲嗎？

Yes, I can take that. I think 2 points on this question. The first is that based upon everything that we know, we don't see this as a large risk to the company. Even if production did go down for a period of time, this is on near term, it doesn't have any impact on the long term of the company.

是的，我可以接受。這個問題我覺得2分。首先，根據我們所知道的一切，我們不認為這對公司構成很大風險。即使生產確實下降了一段時間，這只是短期的，對公司的長期沒有任何影響。

But we don't -- we have no indication whatsoever that we will have to cut our production in Germany.

但我們沒有——我們沒有任何跡象表明我們將不得不削減在德國的產量。

No. And we put in place backup plans, and we're working through the supply chain as well. Nearly all of our suppliers are prepared as well. So we'll see how this plays out, but it's not something that we're terribly worried about.

沒有。我們制定了後備計劃，我們也在整個供應鏈中工作。我們幾乎所有的供應商也都做好了準備。所以我們會看看結果如何，但這並不是我們非常擔心的事情。

Thank you. And the next question is, how is production planning going for the Cybertruck? What is the initial Phase 1 production target? When can we expect an update on pricing and final design?

謝謝你。下一個問題是，Cybertruck 的生產計劃進展如何？第一階段的初始生產目標是什麼？我們什麼時候可以期待價格和最終設計的更新？

Yes. I mean as Elon said earlier, we'd be on -- so these preparations here in Giga Texas for Cybertruck, we're still on track to enter early production in the middle of next year. We started our data builds of all of the battery body in the existing...

是的。我的意思是，正如 Elon 之前所說，我們會繼續——所以這些在德克薩斯州 Giga 為 Cybertruck 做的準備工作，我們仍有望在明年年中進入早期生產階段。我們開始構建現有電池中所有電池體的數據...

When should I drop my beta?

我什麼時候應該放棄我的測試版？

In a few weeks. That's going well, and we continue ramping up through the end of next year and into 2023.

在幾週之內。進展順利，我們將繼續加速到明年年底和 2023 年。

Great. Yes, the car is going to be sick and sick. That is going to be a hall of famer, next level.

偉大的。是的，這輛車會生病和生病。那將是名人堂，下一個級別。

Sorry, sorry, it took longer than expected, but there were a few things that got in the way, like insane global supply chain shortages like FedEx, force majeure, if there ever was one.

抱歉，抱歉，花費的時間比預期的要長，但有一些事情阻礙了，比如聯邦快遞等瘋狂的全球供應鏈短缺、不可抗力（如果有的話）。

Right. Thank you.

正確的。謝謝你。

Of course, there's Tesla Semi, of course. So we'll be handing over our first production Tesla Semis to Pepsi on December 1. I'll be there in person. And we will begin ramping up production of the Tesla Semi, which is a max low, heavy truck. That's a Class A truck, Class A truck.

當然，當然還有 Tesla Semi。因此，我們將在 12 月 1 日將我們的第一輛特斯拉半成品交付給百事可樂。我會親自到場。我們將開始增加 Tesla Semi 的產量，這是一款最大的輕型重型卡車。那是A級卡車，A級卡車。

No sacrifice to cargo capacity.

不犧牲貨物容量。

Yes, exactly, very important, no sacrifice to cargo capacity, 500-mile range. Just to be clear, 500 miles with the cargo. Yes, 500 miles with the cargo on level ground. Yes, sure. It's excellent. But the point is it's a long-range truck and even with heavy cargo. And the number of times people told me, "You can't, it's impossible to make a long-range heavy-duty Class A truck." And then I'll ask, well, what are your assumptions about what hours per kilogram and what hours per mile, and they look at me with a blank stare and then say hydrogen.

是的，確切地說，非常重要，不犧牲貨運能力，500 英里航程。只是說清楚，500英里的貨物。是的，貨物在平地上行駛 500 英里。是的，當然。太棒了。但關鍵是它是一輛長途卡車，甚至載重貨物。人們告訴我的次數，“你不能，不可能製造一輛遠程重型甲級卡車。”然後我會問，嗯，你對每公斤多少小時和每英里多少小時的假設是什麼，他們茫然地看著我，然後說氫氣。

I'm like, no, that's not the answer. I was looking for numbers literally. It's not a number. It's a table. You obviously don't need hydrogen for heavy trucking.

我想，不，這不是答案。我一直在尋找數字。這不是一個數字。這是一張桌子。顯然，重型卡車運輸不需要氫氣。

And we'll be ramping up Semi production through next year. As I think everyone knows at this point, it takes about a year to ramp up production. So we expect to see significant -- we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America. And obviously, we'll expand beyond North America. And these would sell -- I don't want to say the exact prices, but they're much more than a passenger vehicle. So with a few thousand, heavy trucks of this nature would be worth several Model Ys.

我們將在明年之前提高 Semi 的產量。我想現在每個人都知道，提高產量大約需要一年的時間。因此，我們預計會看到重大進展——我們的初步目標是在 2024 年為北美的 Tesla Semi 提供 50,000 輛。顯然，我們將擴展到北美以外的地區。這些會賣掉——我不想說確切的價格，但它們不僅僅是一輛乘用車。因此，擁有幾千輛這種性質的重型卡車將值幾輛 Model Y。

Thank you. The next question is, what is the progress of the 4680 cell ramp? And what factors determine whether vehicles get 2170s versus 4680 cells? And how will that change in the next year?

謝謝你。下一個問題是，4680 單元的爬坡進展如何？哪些因素決定了車輛是否使用 2170 和 4680 電池？明年這種情況將如何變化？

Yes, ramp is going well, as Elon said. Total output is up 3x quarter-over-quarter, and production is tracking to exceed 1,000 cars per week this quarter, as we said last quarter. Our focus is now shifting from 100% ramp to cost and further expanding production capacity in North America, as Elon also mentioned.

是的，正如埃隆所說，坡道進展順利。正如我們上個季度所說，總產量環比增長 3 倍，本季度每週產量將超過 1,000 輛。正如埃隆（Elon）所提到的，我們現在的重點是從 100% 的斜坡上升到成本，並進一步擴大北美的產能。

On the 2170 versus 4680, in our factories, we really attempt to minimize factory complexity and product changeover while still making sure we get enough new product into the field to learn how it is performing. And that sort of mix is going to shift as 4680 scales here and the overall factory ramp proceeds in Texas.

對於 2170 與 4680，在我們的工廠中，我們確實試圖最大限度地減少工廠複雜性和產品轉換，同時仍確保我們有足夠的新產品進入現場以了解其性能。隨著 4680 在這裡的規模和德克薩斯州的整體工廠斜坡的推進，這種組合將會發生變化。

Right. Basically, production of 4680 ramp is growing exponentially. And yes, it's going well. We're just looking at this as just going to be a major back to the future.

正確的。基本上，4680坡道的產量呈指數增長。是的，進展順利。我們只是把這看作是回到未來的一個重大事件。

Yes. And like I said, we're -- our goal is to strive towards 1,000 gigawatt hours a year of annualized production in United States alone by Tesla, not including [SpaceX.] It will be on top of that.

是的。就像我說的那樣，我們的目標是，僅在美國，特斯拉不包括 [SpaceX]，每年的年產量將達到 1,000 吉瓦時。它將是最重要的。

We need to get 300 to 400 terawatt hours to accomplish our goal.

我們需要獲得 300 到 400 太瓦時才能實現我們的目標。

Yes, there's roughly -- to transition to sustainable energy, our price calculation for both stationary and vehicles is 300,000 to 400,000 gigawatt hours or 300 to 400 terawatt hours.

是的，大致有 - 為了過渡到可持續能源，我們對固定和車輛的價格計算為 300,000 到 400,000 吉瓦時或 300 到 400 太瓦時。

So when you're like 1 tower assembling a lot, well, it's a lot of terawatt hours to get by.

因此，當您像 1 座塔一樣組裝很多時，嗯，這需要很多太瓦時。

Yes. And on the cathode side, the main cathode we think will probably be iron and most of the iron can scale to very, very high tonnage and then some nickel. The exact percentages are hard to figure out, but it'd probably be twice as much iron cathodes as nickel, maybe more. And then there's the manganese wildcard as well.

是的。在陰極方面，我們認為主要的陰極可能是鐵，大部分鐵可以擴展到非常非常高的噸位，然後是一些鎳。確切的百分比很難計算，但它可能是鎳的兩倍，甚至更多。然後還有錳通配符。

No. And on that note, we're pursuing aggressively North American iron supplies. And how -- yes, we can talk more about that at a future date.

不。在這方面，我們正在積極尋求北美的鐵供應。以及如何 - 是的，我們可以在未來的日期更多地討論這個問題。

Yes. Thank you. The next question is on the Semi truck, which we already addressed. So I'm going to skip to the next one. Can you talk about how Tesla could adjust if we were to enter a prolonged recession, including new product prioritization, investment flexibility, new factory versus factory expansion, service support infrastructure, productivity cost measures and demand stimulation alternatives?

是的。謝謝你。下一個問題是關於我們已經討論過的 Semi 卡車。所以我要跳到下一個。您能否談談如果我們進入長期衰退，特斯拉將如何調整，包括新產品優先級、投資靈活性、新工廠與工廠擴張、服務支持基礎設施、生產力成本措施和需求刺激替代方案？

Well, to be frank, we're very pedal to the metal, come rain or shine. So we are not reducing our production in any meaningful way. We're essential, not recession.

好吧，坦率地說，我們非常喜歡金屬，風雨無阻。因此，我們不會以任何有意義的方式減少產量。我們是必不可少的，而不是經濟衰退。

It's the 1% point you made.

這是你提出的 1% 點。

Yes, exactly. So I think the public, at large, realizes that the world's moving towards electric vehicles. And that it's foolish to actually buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So I think we are in a very good spot. But I wouldn't say it's recession-proof. But it's certainly recession-resilient because, basically, it has -- people both have large part made the decision to move from gasoline cars to electric cars.

對，就是這樣。所以我認為公眾普遍意識到世界正在朝著電動汽車的方向發展。而且此時實際購買一輛新的汽油車是愚蠢的，因為那輛汽油車的剩餘價值將非常低。所以我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置。但我不會說它是防衰退的。但它肯定能抵禦衰退，因為基本上，人們都做出了從汽油車轉向電動車的決定。

And then in transitioning electricity generation to sustainable, you need solar and wind with the stationary battery pack to buffer the power. So you have 24/7 power because the wind doesn't blow -- doesn't travel in time. So that also -- we actually see the energy storage business, stationary storage, growing more like 150% to 200% a year, much faster than cars by a lot.

然後在將發電轉變為可持續發電時，您需要太陽能和風能以及固定電池組來緩衝電力。所以你有 24/7 的電力，因為風不會吹——沒有及時傳播。所以這也是 - 我們實際上看到能源存儲業務，固定存儲，每年增長 150% 到 200%，比汽車快很多。

Just to add before you jump in, Martin. Just to echo Elon's point, I mean, I think where our cash balance is, what our forecasted cash generation is, where our margins are as a company, I mean we can withstand quite a lot of downside before we would have to dig into our capital plans, Supercharger expansion, product lineup.

馬丁，在你加入之前補充一下。只是為了回應埃隆的觀點，我的意思是，我認為我們的現金餘額在哪裡，我們預測的現金產生量是多少，我們作為一家公司的利潤率在哪裡，我的意思是在我們不得不深入研究之前，我們可以承受相當多的下行壓力。資本計劃，增壓器擴展，產品陣容。

So the business has done quite well over the last handful of quarters. And this is a real opportunity, I think, for the company to press forward most aggressively, as Elon has mentioned.

因此，該業務在過去幾個季度中表現相當不錯。正如埃隆所提到的，我認為，這對公司來說是一個真正的機會，可以最積極地推進。

Yes, we try to model out like, let's say, 2023 is a brutal recession year. Even then, we generate meaningful cash, once you get out of that for pressure forward.

是的，我們試圖模擬，比如說，2023 年是一個殘酷的衰退年。即便如此，一旦您擺脫壓力，我們就會產生可觀的現金。

Great. Thank you very much. And let's go to the last investor question, which is the progression from Tesla's first platform with SMX to the second platform with 3 and Y led to a 50% reduction in cost of goods sold. When do you see Tesla's third platform being released? And what level of cost of goods sold reduction could you achieve?

偉大的。非常感謝。讓我們回到最後一個投資者問題，即從特斯拉的第一個 SMX 平台到第二個 3 和 Y 平台的進展導致銷售成本降低了 50%。你什麼時候看到特斯拉的第三個平台發布？您可以將銷售成本降低到什麼程度？

Well, we don't want to talk exact dates, but this is a -- I mean, the primary focus of our new vehicle development team, obviously. But at this point, we've done the engineering for Cybertrucks and for Semi. So it's obviously against what we're working on, which is the next-generation vehicle, which will be probably about the cost of 3 and Y platform. It will be smaller, to be clear. But it will, I think, certainly become -- certainly exceed the production of all our other vehicles combined.

好吧，我們不想談論確切的日期，但這顯然是我們新車開發團隊的主要關注點。但在這一點上，我們已經完成了 Cybertrucks 和 Semi 的工程設計。所以這顯然違背了我們正在研究的下一代車輛，這可能與 3 和 Y 平台的成本有關。要清楚，它會更小。但我認為，它肯定會——肯定會超過我們所有其他車輛的總產量。

I mean obviously, we're going to take everything we learned from S, X, 3, Y, Cybertruck and Semi into that platform. But we -- as you've said to us many times, we're on a 2-for-1 target. We're trying to get to that 50% number again.

我的意思很明顯，我們將從 S、X、3、Y、Cybertruck 和 Semi 學到的所有東西都應用到該平台中。但是我們——正如你多次對我們所說的那樣，我們的目標是 2 比 1。我們正試圖再次達到那個 50% 的數字。

It's like, we're going to take 2. If that's exactly what it would take, 2. How are we making 2 cars for the amount of effort that currently takes us to make 1 Model 3.

就像，我們要花 2 輛。如果這正是它所需要的，2。我們如何製造 2 輛汽車，而目前我們需要付出我們製造 1 輛 Model 3 的努力。

Yes. Effort costs.

是的。努力成本。

Yes. All things Considered.

是的。所有的情況都被考慮到了。

Half the loss, half the past, half the factory floor space. We're twice the output.

一半的損失，一半的過去，一半的廠房面積。我們的產量是兩倍。

And we do believe this can be done. By the way, I should mention that when I said that probably now that I see a path in extremely very difficult path, incredible execution required, a massive amount of hard work and some luck to get to where Tesla is worth as much as Apple and Saudi Aramco combined, I wasn't including Optimus.

我們相信這是可以做到的。順便說一句，我應該提一下，當我說這句話時，可能現在我看到了一條極其困難的道路，需要令人難以置信的執行力，大量的努力和一些運氣才能到達特斯拉的價值與蘋果和沙特阿美加起來，我不包括擎天柱。

Thank you. Let's go to analyst questions next. The first question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

謝謝你。接下來讓我們去分析分析師的問題。第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Great. Can you hear me?

偉大的。你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

So Elon, would you consider vertically integrating into mining? That's my first question.

那麼 Elon，你會考慮垂直整合到挖礦中嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

We'll do whatever we have to. Whatever limiting factor is, we'll do. We do not personally constrain ourselves. We don't particularly integrate just for the hell of particularly integrating. Like if there was a great supplier who's better than us or we think actively is very good, or even where the economics of comparative advantage suggests that we should use that supplier, even if we could beat them, but we could use our resources to do something else that will be more productive, then we would in-source in that case. But if we have to go mine, we will mine.

我們會做任何我們必須做的事情。無論限制因素是什麼，我們都會做。我們不會個人限制自己。我們並不是為了特別集成而特別集成。就像有一個比我們更好的優秀供應商，或者我們認為積極主動非常好，或者甚至在比較優勢經濟學表明我們應該使用該供應商的情況下，即使我們可以擊敗他們，但我們可以利用我們的資源來做其他會更有成效的東西，那麼在這種情況下我們會內購。但如果我們必須去我的，我們會去我的。

Elon, my follow-up is 1 terawatt hour of manufacturing in the United States, vertically integrated. I guess my question is what would need to change with U.S. permitting laws to allow that? Kind of what would be your message to this administration or next? And do you think you could do a terawatt hour? What's the going price of that? Can you do that for under $100 billion in the States?

Elon，我的後續是在美國進行 1 太瓦時的製造，垂直整合。我想我的問題是美國允許法律允許這樣做需要改變什麼？您對本屆政府或下屆政府的信息是什麼？你認為你可以做太瓦時嗎？那現在的價格是多少？你能在美國以不到 1000 億美元的價格做到這一點嗎？

Well, I mean, I think the message to the government would be that there should be -- I should say, we've actually had conversations with a number of senior government leaders, White House, Congress and whatnot. And the suggestion that we have is that there should be an expedited permitting process for anything which is critical to a sustainable energy future.

好吧，我的意思是，我認為給政府的信息是應該有——我應該說，我們實際上已經與一些高級政府領導人、白宮、國會等等進行了對話。我們的建議是，對於任何對可持續能源未來至關重要的事情，都應該有一個快速的許可程序。

So it doesn't make sense to put like a coal mine and a sustainable energy battery like lithium mine in the same category. Coal does not in the future, lithium does. And by the way, you can extract lithium with almost no disturbance to the local environment. So it's not actually ugly, nasty mining situation.

所以把像煤礦和像鋰礦這樣的可持續能源電池放在同一類別是沒有意義的。煤炭不會在未來，鋰會。順便說一句，您可以在幾乎不干擾當地環境的情況下提取鋰。所以它實際上並不是醜陋的、令人討厭的採礦情況。

So I would recommend, expedited permitting would really be helpful. Basically, a fast track environmentally, I think in a sense, fast track things that are important for the environment and the communities. That seems logical. And the reception has been positive. So we'll see if something happens with that.

所以我建議，加急許可真的很有幫助。基本上，我認為從某種意義上說，快速跟踪環境，快速跟踪對環境和社區很重要的事情。這似乎合乎邏輯。並且接待是積極的。所以我們會看看是否會發生什麼。

I think probably on this earnings call, we're not ready to go into financial details of the -- what will take to get there. But what we are seeing is practical improvements as we redesign the whole supply chain and all of the elements that go into battery cell. We're figuring out dramatic efficiencies. And I think we'll -- net result which would be that the capital required to achieve that level output will be much less work than people think.

我認為可能在這次財報電話會議上，我們還沒有準備好進入財務細節 - 實現目標需要什麼。但我們看到的是實際改進，因為我們重新設計了整個供應鍊和電池的所有元素。我們正在研究顯著的效率。而且我認為我們將 - 最終結果是實現該水平輸出所需的資本將比人們想像的要少得多。

Thank you very much. Let's go to the next question from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

非常感謝。讓我們轉到富國銀行的 Colin Langan 的下一個問題。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們可以聽到你的聲音。

Okay. Any update on full self-driving? I think you had said a couple of quarters ago, would be available by the end of the year. Is that still possible? Is it -- would it still be like a Level 4 or Level 5 that you're talking about? And are there any sort of regulatory hurdles you'd have to think about?

好的。全自動駕駛有更新嗎？我想你在幾個季度前說過，將在年底前上市。那還有可能嗎？是不是 - 它仍然像您所說的 4 級或 5 級嗎？您是否需要考慮任何形式的監管障礙？

We -- as I said earlier, we're expecting to release the full self-driving software to anyone who orders the package by the end of this year. So a separate matter as to will it have regulatory approval, it won't have regulatory approval at that time. But the car will be able to take you from your home to your work, to your friend's house, to the grocery store without you touching the wheel. So it's looking very good.

我們——正如我之前所說，我們希望在今年年底之前向訂購該軟件包的任何人發布完整的自動駕駛軟件。因此，它是否會獲得監管部門的批准是另一回事，當時它不會獲得監管部門的批准。但是，汽車將能夠將您從家帶到工作地點、朋友家、雜貨店，而無需您碰方向盤。所以它看起來非常好。

And it would mean like Level 4, Level 5 kind of traditional definition you're talking about?

這意味著像第 4 級、第 5 級這樣的傳統定義？

Well, there's debate is like what's the -- what are the interventions per mile and maybe safety interventions per mile. Like we're not saying that, that's quite ready to have no one behind the wheel. It's just that you will almost never have to touch the control, vehicle controllers.

嗯，有爭論是什麼 - 每英里的干預措施是什麼，也許是每英里的安全乾預措施。就像我們沒有這麼說一樣，這已經做好了沒有人在方向盤後面的準備。只是你幾乎不需要觸摸控制，車輛控制器。

So like when I came to Giga Texas from Brent's house, I never touched any of the controls right here. And then there is a longer process of like called the march of nines, of like how many nines reliability do you need before you could really be comfortable saying that the car could drive with no one in it. And that's -- subjectivity as to how many nines you need. But I think we'll be pretty close to having enough nines that you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year.

所以就像我從布倫特家來到 Giga Texas 時一樣，我從來沒有碰過這裡的任何控件。然後有一個更長的過程，稱為九分之三，就像你需要多少個九的可靠性才能真正舒服地說汽車可以在沒有人的情況下行駛。那就是 - 關於你需要多少個九的主觀性。但我認為我們將非常接近擁有足夠多的 9 桿，到今年年底你將不會在車上放任何人。

And certainly, without a question, that's in my mind next year. I think we'll also have an update next year to be able to show to regulators that the car is safe, much so than the average human.

當然，毫無疑問，這是我明年的想法。我認為明年我們還會進行更新，以便能夠向監管機構證明汽車是安全的，比普通人要安全得多。

Got it. And just as a follow-up. You mentioned in the prior questions about IRA. I mean it sounded like you thought you could get -- can you get all of it? I mean because my interpretation is like the production credits, battery component, credits for buyers seems very likely for you guys. Is the sourcing part of it possible? Because that seems like a pretty tough hurdle given how much has to be sourced from the U.S.

知道了。並且只是作為後續行動。您在之前關於 IRA 的問題中提到過。我的意思是聽起來你認為你能得到——你能得到所有的東西嗎？我的意思是因為我的解釋就像生產積分，電池組件，買家的積分對你們來說似乎很可能。它的採購部分可能嗎？因為考慮到必須從美國採購多少，這似乎是一個相當艱難的障礙。

Yes. So we have a cross-functional team that's looking very closely. As you mentioned, the sourcing threshold increases by the year. So we're looking at all options and also getting some clarification from treasury. That's -- it's important to say that's only a fraction of the other credits. We do manufacture ourselves in the U.S. We manufacture the modules in the U.S. So that's a pretty clear. So yes, we feel confident that we'll have a path as these incentives, as the threshold sort of increases by the year.

是的。所以我們有一個跨職能團隊正在密切關注。正如您所提到的，採購門檻逐年提高。因此，我們正在研究所有選項，並從財政部獲得一些澄清。那是 - 重要的是要說這只是其他學分的一小部分。我們在美國自己製造。我們在美國製造模塊。所以這很清楚。所以，是的，我們有信心，隨著門檻逐年增加，我們將有一條路徑作為這些激勵措施。

Yes. We'll meet those thresholds.

是的。我們將達到這些門檻。

Thank you. The next question comes from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Colin Rusch。

The operating leverage has been pretty impressive here. And I'm curious about areas where you could invest in an incremental way, whether it's on the R&D side or on the sales side to accelerate growth or cost reduction. Or should we be thinking about this level of spend on a go-forward basis and some significant operating leverage as you scale up from here?

這裡的經營槓桿令人印象深刻。我很好奇你可以以增量方式投資的領域，無論是在研發方面還是在銷售方面，以加速增長或降低成本。或者我們是否應該在您從這裡擴大規模時考慮這一水平的支出以及一些重要的運營槓桿？

I mean our operating leverage has improved quite a bit. It's the lowest this quarter, I think, ever, and by a decent amount. OpEx as a percentage of revenue, I mean, our forecast is that it will keep reducing. I mean I think the way to think about it is our total amount of operating expenses will slowly tick up as the company grows.

我的意思是我們的經營槓桿已經提高了很多。我認為，這是本季度有史以來最低的，而且數量相當可觀。運營支出佔收入的百分比，我的意思是，我們的預測是它將繼續減少。我的意思是我認為考慮它的方式是隨著公司的發展，我們的總運營費用將慢慢增加。

It's very hard to keep it flat with the rapid growth of the company, but it's growing much slower. So some amount of growth there, but the top line of the business is growing so quickly. So I think there continues to be enormous opportunity to improve the overhead efficiency of the business, and we're seeing it.

隨著公司的快速增長，很難保持平穩，但增長速度要慢得多。所以那裡有一些增長，但業務的收入增長如此之快。因此，我認為仍然存在巨大的機會來提高業務的間接費用效率，我們正在看到它。

Yes. Look, we are in the -- at least for now, quite in a good position of we're investing in everything we can think of to possibly invest in, and we're still generating cash. So I guess it gets a pretty good place to be.

是的。看，我們處於 - 至少就目前而言，我們正在投資所有我們能想到的可能投資的東西，而且我們仍在產生現金。所以我想它是一個很好的地方。

Yes. I mean how many R&D programs are we running in parallel right now.

是的。我的意思是我們現在並行運行了多少個研發項目。

People don't even know old R&D per day. There are some of it, but a bunch of it.

人們甚至不知道每天的舊研發。有一些，但有一堆。

I also don't think cash is a good gauge of how much R&D you're doing.

我也不認為現金可以很好地衡量你在做多少研發。

No. It isn't because like it's not like -- it's not like engineers, they're not generic. So it's just like if you could you spend $5 billion or $10 billion, that will like -- that your actual R&D or useful product ship will be proportionate to that. It's just not true. Engineers aren't coming on some assembly line like cookies or something.

不。這不是因為喜歡它不喜歡 - 它不像工程師，他們不是通用的。因此，就像您可以花費 50 億美元或 100 億美元一樣，您的實際研發或有用的產品交付將與此成比例。這不是真的。工程師不會來到像餅乾之類的裝配線上。

Until we get optimistic.

直到我們變得樂觀。

Optimistic. Don't change things. What matters is where are the most brilliant people working. And Tesla remains the -- Tesla and SpaceX are 2 companies where the smartest engineers want to work.

樂觀的。不要改變事情。重要的是最聰明的人在哪里工作。特斯拉仍然是——特斯拉和SpaceX是兩家最聰明的工程師想要工作的公司。

I mean like we don't have to spend billions of dollars to invest in the future and invent the future. Engineers are also cost-conscious. And we don't just burn the money out the window when we're trying to do R&D. I would stop looking at like R&D as a cash investment for how much...

我的意思是，我們不必花費數十億美元來投資未來和發明未來。工程師也很注重成本。當我們試圖進行研發時，我們不只是把錢燒到窗外。我不會再將研發視為一項現金投資……

One Nikola Tesla is frankly worth an infinite number of dollars above inch -- you could have like a -- almost an infinite number of credit shares and they would not be able to -- worth 1 Nikola Tesla can do. You can't make it up in volume.

坦率地說，一輛 Nikola Tesla 的價值可以無限多地超過 1 英寸——你可以擁有幾乎無限數量的信用股，而他們無法做到——價值 1 Nikola Tesla 可以做到。你無法在數量上彌補它。

Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to the next question from George at Canaccord.

好的。非常感謝。讓我們轉到 Canaccord 的 George 的下一個問題。

I think you would -- at your Annual Shareholder event, where Elon mentioned that the prices of many of the materials used in your production have started to come off the boil. If that continues, does that give you an opportunity to adjust prices globally after several increases?

我想你會 - 在你的年度股東活動中，埃隆提到你生產中使用的許多材料的價格已經開始下降。如果這種情況持續下去，您是否有機會在幾次上漲後調整全球價格？

Well, we're looking at the prices of -- at prices closely. I mean obviously, anyone can just Google what the price of -- future price of copper or steel is going to be. It's just like one Google Search away. And everyone can see that the commodities, on a go-forward basis, are on -- dropping a lot. But in electric vehicles, things like battery-grade lithium are still crazy expensive. So we've got a mixture of things where prices are dropping and things where prices are increasing.

好吧，我們正在密切關注價格。我的意思很明顯，任何人都可以用谷歌搜索價格——未來銅或鋼的價格將是多少。這就像一個谷歌搜索。每個人都可以看到，在前進的基礎上，大宗商品正在大量下跌。但在電動汽車中，像電池級鋰這樣的東西仍然非常昂貴。因此，我們混合了價格下降和價格上漲的情況。

I would say quarter-over-quarter, steel, aluminum has stopped anywhere between 17% to 20% at the same time on the battery side.

我想說的是，在電池方面，鋼、鋁同時在 17% 到 20% 之間停止。

And cost of shipping has come down tremendously. Like last year, the cost of a container on the spot market from Shanghai got as high as $20,000. And now it's $3,500, $3,600. It's that kind of reality. We're seeing deflation in a lot of commodities with a few exceptions as Elon mentioned on batteries.

運輸成本也大幅下降。與去年一樣，上海現貨市場上一個集裝箱的成本高達 20,000 美元。現在是 3,500 美元，3,600 美元。就是這樣的現實。我們看到許多商品出現通貨緊縮，除了埃隆在電池上提到的少數例外。

Yes. There's more deflation than inflation.

是的。通貨緊縮比通貨膨脹嚴重。

Definitely.

確實。

And again, this is publicly available information. Anyone could just Google it. And I think Cathie Wood at ARK Invest is -- I'm going to make this point over and over again, to the Fed and the Fed is not listening because they're looking at the rearview mirror instead of looking out the front windshield.

同樣，這是公開的信息。任何人都可以穀歌它。我認為 ARK Invest 的 Cathie Wood 是——我將一遍又一遍地向美聯儲強調這一點，而美聯儲沒有在聽，因為他們正在看後視鏡而不是看前擋風玻璃。

Yes. Just to add a little bit more context. So commodity increases were the highest in Q3 that we've seen over the last 2 years. And so when indexes change, it does take time before they fully reflect.

是的。只是為了增加一點上下文。因此，我們在過去 2 年中看到的第三季度大宗商品漲幅最高。因此，當指數發生變化時，它們確實需要時間才能完全反映。

Yes. There's latency.

是的。有延遲。

Yes. There's latency.

是的。有延遲。

That's why I say that the best decisions make sense if you're looking out through the rearview mirror, but not if you look out the front windshield. And windshield, front windshield.

這就是為什麼我說如果你從後視鏡向外看，最好的決定是有意義的，但如果你從前擋風玻璃向外看，則不是。還有擋風玻璃，前擋風玻璃。

Yes. And so what -- at least of what we know so far, so peak on the commodity side in Q3, I say peak, hopefully, it stays the peak, hopefully, it starts to come down. There is a small amount of production that we're seeing going into our Q4 cost structure from steel and aluminum primarily, but it's less than 10% of the total increases we've seen so far.

是的。那又如何——至少到目前為止我們所知道的，所以第三季度商品方面的峰值，我說峰值，希望它保持峰值，希望它開始下降。我們看到第四季度成本結構中的少量生產主要來自鋼鐵和鋁，但不到我們迄今為止看到的總增長的 10%。

So we're optimistic here based upon what we're seeing on the indexes for some of our cost structure. So this will start to come in over time. But I just want to set expectations that there's not some windfall of cost reduction in this space coming in Q4, maybe some as we go into next year.

因此，根據我們在某些成本結構的指數上看到的情況，我們對此持樂觀態度。因此，隨著時間的推移，這將開始出現。但我只是想設定一個預期，即在第四季度這個領域不會有一些成本降低的意外收穫，也許在我們進入明年時會有一些意外收穫。

Yes. We'll probably see some cost reduction in 2023. I'll be surprised if we did not.

是的。我們可能會在 2023 年看到一些成本降低。如果我們不這樣做，我會感到驚訝。

And just as a follow-up, this is for Elon. With your pending acquisition of Twitter and your stakes in SpaceX and Neuralink and Tesla, how much would the combined companies benefit from operating under a single super structure, if at all, like a Google Alphabet?

作為後續，這是給 Elon 的。隨著你即將收購 Twitter 以及你在 SpaceX、Neuralink 和 Tesla 中的股份，合併後的公司將從像谷歌 Alphabet 那樣的單一上層結構下運營中受益多少？

It starts clearly on what the overlap is. It's not 0, but it's -- I think we're reaching. I'm not worried about it. I'm not an investor. I'm an engineer and a manufacturing person and a technologist. So I actually work and design and develop products. And that's what I do. So it's not a -- we're not going to have a portfolio, sort of, investments over it.

它清楚地從重疊是什麼開始。它不是 0，但它是 - 我認為我們正在達到。我不擔心。我不是投資者。我是一名工程師、製造人員和技術專家。所以我實際上是在工作、設計和開發產品。這就是我所做的。所以這不是 - 我們不會對它進行投資組合，有點像投資。

So I don't know. I don't see an obvious sort of -- work with some that can get combined under an umbrella, at least right now. So I am excited about the Twitter situation because, obviously, another part incredibly well. And I think it's massive that this sort of languished for a long time, but has an incredible potential.

所以我不知道。我看不到一種明顯的——與一些可以結合在傘下的東西一起工作，至少現在是這樣。所以我對 Twitter 的情況感到興奮，因為很明顯，另一部分非常好。而且我認為這種長期衰落是巨大的，但具有令人難以置信的潛力。

Although, obviously, myself and the other investors are obviously overpaying for Twitter right now. The long-term potential for Twitter, in my view, is, in order of magnitude, greater than its current value.

儘管很明顯，我和其他投資者現在顯然為 Twitter 付出了過高的代價。在我看來，Twitter 的長期潛力在數量級上大於其當前價值。

Let's go to the next question from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

讓我們來看看來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu 的下一個問題。

Can you hear me, guys?

你們能聽到我嗎，伙計們？

Yes, we can hear you now.

是的，我們現在可以聽到你的聲音了。

Great. I'd love to have another update on 4680, Drew. So last time we talked about it, there were -- it was a question about like scaling up with manufacturing and there were still a few things to get right. Is it fair to say that now you are at scale, and it's just a question of logistics to get bigger? So that's question number one.

偉大的。 Drew，我很想再更新一次 4680。所以上次我們談到這個問題時，有一個關於擴大製造規模的問題，還有一些事情需要解決。公平地說，現在你已經達到了規模，而擴大規模只是物流問題？所以這是第一個問題。

And then question number two, on the kind of like innovation and cost reduction and efficiency improvements kind of path that you described at the battery day, where are we today? And how much time is it going to take to deliver all the potential you outlined then?

然後是第二個問題，關於您在電池日描述的創新、降低成本和提高效率的路徑，我們今天在哪裡？需要多長時間才能發揮您當時概述的所有潛力？

Well, I'll take the second question first. At Battery Day, we showed a time line out to 2026 for all of the ideas we had proposed and had shared with everybody then.

好吧，我先回答第二個問題。在電池日，我們展示了到 2026 年的時間線，其中包含了我們當時提出並與大家分享的所有想法。

And yes, I'd be surprised. I think we'll do better than that.

是的，我會感到驚訝。我認為我們會做得更好。

Yes. I mean but that's the rough -- just give you all -- it's on that order. It's not like a month. It's not 6 months. It's 6 years. And we are executing on all of those different ideas pretty aggressively in parallel with the OpEx that some people think isn't enough, but we're getting it done.

是的。我的意思是，但這是粗略的 - 給你所有 - 它是按順序排列的。這不像一個月。這不是6個月。已經6年了。我們正在積極地執行所有這些不同的想法，與一些人認為還不夠的運營支出並行，但我們正在完成它。

I mean I'm not turning down POs.

我的意思是我不會拒絕 PO。

Yes, yes, or great talent, like we find someone awesome, we bring them into the company. And people shouldn't believe we are turning people away.

是的，是的，或者優秀的人才，比如我們找到了很棒的人，我們把他們帶進了公司。人們不應該相信我們正在拒絕人們。

Yes. I mean it's a hot pond but we're solving it. And I think -- we still feel confident that 4680 will be the most competitive battery cell in the world.

是的。我的意思是這是一個熱池，但我們正在解決它。而且我認為 - 我們仍然相信 4680 將成為世界上最具競爭力的電池。

And it's the whole system around it, right? It's not necessarily a specific form factor. It's the attention to detail on how to bring costs out of the manufacturing process or remove processing steps.

它是圍繞它的整個系統，對吧？它不一定是特定的外形尺寸。這是對如何將成本從製造過程中剔除或去除加工步驟的細節的關注。

And all the way down from the mine to the cell.

從礦井一直到牢房。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Many steps along the way.

一路上有很多步驟。

Yes. And for those who watched the YouTube videos, like, our on-site cathode facilities coming together, I'm really excited about that, which is a part of the plan that we discussed on Battery Day.

是的。對於那些觀看 YouTube 視頻的人，比如我們的現場陰極設施齊聚一堂，我對此感到非常興奮，這是我們在電池日討論的計劃的一部分。

We're -- possibly lithium refinery.

我們——可能是鋰精煉廠。

In Corpus Christi. So we're making -- putting our money where our mouths are and all the various efforts that we discussed on Battery Day.

在科珀斯克里斯蒂。所以我們正在努力——把錢放在嘴邊，以及我們在電池日討論的所有各種努力。

On the technical challenges and the ramp question, which is your first question on 4680, no ramp is ever easy even at the end when you're 80% to the end, like it's still very challenging to get to the end. And that sort of leaning out of yields, the final cycle time to achieve target, you mentioned logistics. It's not something that we're specifically focused on, I guess, but eventually could be a problem as we're talking about hundreds of gigawatt hours at different sites across the United States.

關於技術挑戰和坡道問題，這是您在 4680 上的第一個問題，即使在您完成 80% 時，坡道也不是一件容易的事，就像到達終點仍然非常具有挑戰性一樣。你提到了物流，那種對產量的傾斜，達到目標的最終週期時間。我猜這不是我們特別關注的事情，但最終可能會成為一個問題，因為我們正在談論美國不同地點的數百吉瓦時。

But I would never sit here and say we have no challenges remaining. But we've made a lot of progress reducing technical risk in many areas. Cycle times have dramatically improved. Yield has dramatically improved. And just walking the line here in Texas, like Martin was walking it yesterday, made some comments to me. You really see the acceleration around you. And we've made a ton of simplifications moving from the Fremont factory to Texas, and it's coming to play in speed of ramp here. And of course, that's on one line of many here in Texas. So it's not like factory-to-factory. It's a multiplication of both simplicity and scale. So yes, we're excited about where it's headed.

但我永遠不會坐在這裡說我們沒有剩下的挑戰。但我們在降低許多領域的技術風險方面取得了很大進展。週期時間已顯著改善。產量顯著提高。就像馬丁昨天在德克薩斯州一樣走這條線，對我發表了一些評論。你真的看到了你周圍的加速度。從弗里蒙特工廠到德克薩斯州，我們進行了大量的簡化，它在這裡的坡道速度正在發揮作用。當然，這是德克薩斯州的許多人之一。所以它不像工廠到工廠。這是簡單性和規模的乘積。所以，是的，我們對它的發展方向感到興奮。

Yes. And I think, once we are fully integrated, I think we still do see a path to hold roughly $70 kilowatt hour cell -- $70 per kilowatt hour cell before any incentive.

是的。而且我認為，一旦我們完全整合，我認為我們仍然會看到一條持有大約 70 美元千瓦時電池的道路——在任何激勵措施之前，每千瓦時電池 70 美元。

Before incentives.

激勵之前。

Before incentive. Yes.

激勵前。是的。

Thank you. And the next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

Yes. I just wanted to follow up on the 4680 cells and where we are seeing them deployed today. So are those in the Semis that are being delivered on December 1? Are we seeing them in Model Ys that are being produced out of Austin? And is -- do you anticipate 4680 being a gating factor for Cybertruck ramp later this year? And how do you balance the need for 4680 across Semi, Cybertruck and, potentially, Model Y in 2023? And I have a follow-up, please.

是的。我只是想跟進 4680 單元以及我們今天看到它們部署的位置。那麼在 12 月 1 日交付的半決賽中的那些？我們是否在奧斯汀生產的 Model Y 中看到了它們？而且 - 您是否預計 4680 會成為今年晚些時候 Cybertruck 升級的一個關鍵因素？您如何平衡 2023 年 Semi、Cybertruck 以及可能的 Model Y 對 4680 的需求？我有一個跟進，拜託。

Wow. Okay. The Semi doesn't use 4680s. Yes. We are making Model Ys. Some of the Model Ys coming out of Giga Texas are 4680. And I think, Drew, the car you drive around is 4680 Model Y?

哇。好的。 Semi不使用4680s。是的。我們正在製造 Model Y。一些來自 Giga Texas 的 Model Y 是 4680。我想，Drew，你開的車是 4680 Model Y？

Yes. 10,000 miles. It's pretty good. No problems yet. Yes.

是的。 10,000 英里。這個很不錯。還沒有問題。是的。

Structural pack?

結構包？

Structural pack, yes.

結構包，是的。

So -- and yes, I mean, and our output at 4680 is growing exponentially, so. But it's worth bearing in mind like there are entire highly competitive companies that are very smart that all they do is make battery cells. This is simply 1 segment of Tesla. So it's not a total working block.

所以 - 是的，我的意思是，我們在 4680 的輸出呈指數增長，所以。但值得牢記的是，有很多競爭激烈的公司非常聰明，他們所做的只是製造電池。這只是特斯拉的一小部分。所以這不是一個完整的工作塊。

No, there aren't -- there are challenges still ahead that we have not yet surpassed. No doubt.

不，沒有——前面還有我們尚未超越的挑戰。毫無疑問。

We don't anticipate this being anything limiting factor for Cybertruck or anything else.

我們預計這不會成為 Cybertruck 或其他任何東西的任何限制因素。

Okay. And the last question comes from William Stein from Truist.

好的。最後一個問題來自 Truist 的 William Stein。

I guess I'll go at one that I asked last time, Elon, which is your expectation for the likelihood of commercial success in each of the 3 major AI endeavors: FSD sort of as imagined without a driver, the training computer and, of course, Optimus.

我想我會回答我上次問的一個問題，Elon，這是你對 3 項主要 AI 努力中每一項取得商業成功的可能性的期望：FSD 有點像沒有司機、訓練計算機的想像，以及當然，擎天柱。

We'll achieve full self-driving full time probability of that occurring is 100%. And I think we'll -- we're almost there. And then, of course, we've got to prove it to regulators and get the regulatory approvals, which is outside of our control. But anyone who's driving full self-driving cars, has the full self-driving Beta in the car, can see the rate of improvement.

我們將實現完全自動駕駛，這種情況發生的概率是 100%。我想我們會 - 我們快到了。然後，當然，我們必須向監管機構證明這一點並獲得監管部門的批准，這超出了我們的控制範圍。但是任何駕駛全自動駕駛汽車的人，在車上安裝了全自動駕駛測試版，都可以看到改進的速度。

You can just experience for yourself that we are, in fact, getting there. In fact, we almost are there. And so we're probably achieving that 100%.

您可以親身體驗，事實上，我們正在到達那裡。事實上，我們幾乎就在那裡。因此，我們可能正在實現 100%。

The Optimus, probably of that being a successful product, I think, also extremely high, given enough time, 100%.

擎天柱，可能是一個成功的產品，我認為，也非常高，如果有足夠的時間，100%。

Dojo, just maybe more of a question around Dojo, like can we be competitive with NVIDIA GPUs even as somebody continues to rapidly evolve their GPUs? So as I said, the jury is out on Dojo. There's a team's taken -- outperformed NVIDIA for neural training. The jury's out, we will probably -- I don't know, next year, if that's true or not. But we think we're probably -- we think it's -- this is -- the architecture of Dojo has the right architecture to win. Yes. It depends on how well we execute in that architecture.

Dojo，也許更多的是圍繞 Dojo 的問題，例如，即使有人繼續快速發展他們的 GPU，我們能否與 NVIDIA GPU 競爭？所以正如我所說，陪審團不在Dojo上。有一個團隊採用了——在神經訓練方面的表現優於 NVIDIA。陪審團出局了，我們可能會——我不知道，明年，這是否屬實。但我們認為我們可能——我們認為它是——這是——Dojo 的架構有正確的架構來取勝。是的。這取決於我們在該架構中的執行情況。

Thank you very much. I think, unfortunately, it's all the time that we have today. So thank you so much for your great questions and look forward to talking to you in about 3 months from now. Thank you, and have a good day.

非常感謝。我認為，不幸的是，這就是我們今天所擁有的所有時間。非常感謝您提出的好問題，並期待在大約 3 個月後與您交談。謝謝你，有一個美好的一天。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。