特斯拉 (TSLA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2022 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update that we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收聽特斯拉2022年第三季問答網路直播。我叫馬丁‧維查 (Martin Viecha)，是投資者關係副總裁，今天與我一起出席的還有伊隆‧馬斯克 (Elon Musk)、札卡里‧柯克霍恩 (Zachary Kirkhorn) 和其他一些高階主管。我們的第三季業績在下午 3 點左右公佈。我們在與該網路廣播相同的連結中發布了更新，更新內容為美國中部時間。

During the call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. During the Q&A session portion of today's call, please limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up. (Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論是基於我們今天的預測和期望。由於多種風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。在今天電話會議的問答環節中，請限制自己只提出 1 個問題和 1 個後續問題。 （操作員指示）但在我們進入問答環節之前，伊隆有一些開場白。埃隆？

Thank you, Martin. So just to do a Q3 recap. Q3 was another record quarter on many levels. We had our industry-leading operating margin reach 17%. And our free cash flow surpassed $3 billion in Q3 and approached $9 billion in the past 12 months. As our factories ramp, we're looking forward to a record-breaking Q4. So it really, knock on wood, it looks like we'll have an epic end of year. So Q4 is looking extremely good.

謝謝你，馬丁。所以只是做一個第三季的回顧。第三季在多個層面上又創下了新紀錄。我們的營業利益率達到17%，處於業界領先地位。我們的自由現金流在第三季超過了 30 億美元，在過去 12 個月中接近 90 億美元。隨著工廠產能提升，我們期待第四季的業績創下新高。所以，真的，敲敲木頭，看起來我們將會有一個史詩般的年底。因此第四季看起來非常好。

On the production ramp, Giga Berlin achieved another milestone of 2,000 cars made in a week with very good quality and is ramping rapidly. Giga Austin or Giga Texas should reach this milestone very soon. And in fact just yesterday, we extrapolated yesterday's hold rate, it would be 2,000.

在生產爬坡方面，Giga Berlin 又創下了一個里程碑，即一周內生產了 2,000 輛汽車，品質非常好，並且正在快速爬坡。 Giga Austin 或 Giga Texas 應該很快就會達到這一里程碑。事實上就在昨天，我們推斷昨天的持有率將是 2,000。

Our production of 4680 cells has tripled in Q3 compared to the previous quarter. We are finally gaining rapid traction on the 4680 cell. And its output is growing rapidly, and we expect it to start incorporating in cars and having it be a significant portion of our production here in Texas in the coming months. We also have our second generation of manufacturing equipment for 4680 cells in Texas, which continues to show great progress along with our original pilot line in Fremont.

與上一季相比，我們第三季的 4,680 電池產量增加了兩倍。我們最終在 4680 電池方面取得了快速進展。它的產量正在快速增長，我們預計它將開始應用於汽車，並在未來幾個月內成為我們在德克薩斯州生產的相當重要的一部分。我們在德克薩斯州還擁有第二代4680電池製造設備，該設備與我們位於弗里蒙特的原始試驗生產線一起繼續取得巨大進步。

The Fremont factory team once again reached record production in Q3. And we intend to keep raising production in Fremont.

弗里蒙特工廠團隊在第三季再次創下產量紀錄。我們打算繼續提高弗里蒙特的產量。

Regarding Autopilot, at the end of September, we hosted our second AI Day and showed the first prototype of our Optimus robot, released updates on our training computer and high range of improvements of full self-driving software.

關於自動駕駛儀，9 月底，我們舉辦了第二屆人工智慧日，展示了我們的 Optimus 機器人的第一個原型，發布了我們的訓練電腦的更新以及全自動駕駛軟體的大量改進。

Our vehicles have now driven nearly 60 miles in full self-driving beta mode, and this number continues to grow exponentially. Our goal with that AI Day was to post recruiting, and we've seen a massive influx of world-class artificial intelligence engineer and scientist resume. So it generated a tremendous amount of interest from some of the best AI researchers in the world. I can't emphasize the importance of this enough because I think it finally has become clear to the smallest AI technologists in the world that Tesla is among the very best.

我們的車輛目前已在完全自動駕駛測試模式下行駛了近 60 英里，而且這個數字還在繼續呈指數級增長。我們舉辦人工智慧日的目標是發布招聘訊息，我們已經看到大量世界級人工智慧工程師和科學家的履歷湧入。因此它引起了世界上一些最優秀的人工智慧研究人員的極大興趣。我再怎麼強調這一點的重要性也不為過，因為我認為世界上最小的人工智慧技術專家最終也明白，特斯拉是最優秀的技術之一。

So this quarter, we expect to go to wide release of full self-driving beta in North America. So anyone who has ordered a full self-driving Beta -- full self-driving will have access to the FSD Beta program this year, probably about a month from now. So and then, obviously, any new -- anyone who buys a car and purchase a full self-driving option will immediately have that available to them.

因此，本季我們預計將在北美廣泛發表全自動駕駛測試版。因此，任何訂購了全自動駕駛 Beta 版的人——全自動駕駛汽車今年都可以使用 FSD Beta 計劃，大概從現在起一個月左右。因此，顯然，任何新車——任何購買全自動駕駛選項的人都會立即獲得這項服務。

So the safety that we're seeing when the car is in FSD mode is actually significantly greater than the safety we're seeing when it is not, which is a key threshold for going to a wide Beta.

因此，當汽車處於 FSD 模式時，我們看到的安全性實際上比非 FSD 模式時看到的安全性要高得多，這是進入廣泛 Beta 測試的關鍵門檻。

Let's see, with respect to demand. We've got a lot of questions about demand in recent weeks. I can't emphasize enough, we have excellent demand for Q4, and we expect to sell every car that we make for as far in the future as we can see. So the factories are running at full speed, and we're delivering a recovery make and keeping operating margins strong. We are still a very small percentage of the total vehicles on the road. Of the 2 billion trucks on the road, we only have about 3.5 million. So we're about a long way to go to even reach 1% of the global fleet.

讓我們看看，關於需求。最近幾週我們收到了很多關於需求的問題。我再怎麼強調也不為過，我們對 Q4 的需求非常大，我們預計在未來的很長一段時間內，我們生產的每一輛車都能賣出去。因此，工廠正在全速運轉，我們正在實現復甦並保持強勁的營業利潤率。我們仍然只佔道路上所有車輛的一小部分。在道路上行駛的20億輛卡車中，我們只有大約350萬輛。因此，我們距離達到全球船隊的 1% 還有很長的路要走。

Let's see. Kind of based on my -- what people -- based on many things, but certainly questions I get on Twitter about buybacks. And I think every one of our Board members has gotten questions about buybacks. The -- we've debated the buyback idea extensively at the Board level. The Board generally thinks that it makes sense to do a buyback. But we want to work through the right process to do a buyback, but it's certainly possible for us to do a buyback on the order of $5 billion to $10 billion. Even in the downside scenario next year, even given if next year is a very difficult year, we still have the ability to do a $5 billion to $10 billion buyback. This is obviously pending Board review and approval. So it's likely that we'll do some meaningful buyback.

讓我們來看看。有點基於我的——人們——基於很多事情，但肯定是我在 Twitter 上收到的有關回購的問題。我認為我們董事會的每一位成員都對回購有過疑問。我們在董事會層級對回購想法進行了廣泛的討論。董事會普遍認為回購是有意義的。但我們希望透過正確的流程來進行回購，但我們肯定有可能進行 50 億至 100 億美元的回購。即使在明年出現不利情況的情況下，即使明年是非常艱難的一年，我們仍然有能力進行 50 億至 100 億美元的回購。這顯然有待董事會審查和批准。因此我們很可能會進行一些有意義的回購。

So in conclusion, while the market theme revolve around the short term, it's very important to focus on the long term. I can't emphasize this enough with investors. And I think long-time investors, obviously recognize this with Tesla. We have our sort of local ups and downs, but long-term trend has been extremely good. And several years ago I said, I think, on our earnings call, that I thought it was possible for Tesla to be worth more than Apple, which was then the highest cap company, I think, in the market. And Apple, at that time, I think was around $700 billion. And I said it required incredible execution, at least some luck.

總而言之，雖然市場主題圍繞著短期展開，但關注長期發展也非常重要。我再怎麼向投資人強調這一點也不為過。我認為長期投資者顯然已經認識到特斯拉的這一點。我們有自己的局部起伏，但長期趨勢非常好。幾年前，我在財報電話會議上說過，我認為特斯拉的市值有可能超過蘋果，當時蘋果是市場上市值最高的公司。我認為當時蘋果的市值約為 7000 億美元。我說這需要令人難以置信的執行力，至少需要一些運氣。

And we didn't only achieve that. Tesla went, in fact, or passed Apple's market cap at the time. And now I am of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple's current market cap. In fact, I see a potential path with Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. So now that doesn't mean it will happen or that will be easy. In fact, I think it will be very difficult. It will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, managed expansion and, always, luck.

而我們不僅實現了這一點。事實上，特斯拉當時的市值已經達到或超過了蘋果。現在我認為我們可以遠遠超過蘋果目前的市值。事實上，我認為特斯拉的價值可能超過蘋果和沙烏地阿美的總和。所以現在這並不意味著它會發生或會很容易。事實上，我認為這會非常困難。這需要大量的工作、一些非常有創意的新產品、管理擴張，當然還有運氣。

But for the first time, I am seeing -- I see a way for Tesla to be -- let's say, roughly twice the value of Saudi Aramco. I think that's -- I haven't quite seen that yet. I mean this is the first time I've seen that potential.

但我第一次看到——我看到了特斯拉的市值——大約是沙烏地阿美的兩倍。我認為那是——我還沒有完全看到那一點。我的意思是這是我第一次看到這種潛力。

So we have an incredible product portfolio. I think we've got the most exciting product portfolio of any company on earth, some of which you've heard about, some of which you haven't. We're in the final lap for Cybertruck. We're building a Cybertruck line here at Giga Texas Austin and making a lot of progress in the robotaxi platform design.

因此，我們擁有令人難以置信的產品組合。我認為我們擁有全球所有公司中最令人興奮的產品組合，其中一些您聽說過，而有些您還沒有聽說過。我們正處於 Cyber​​truck 的最後一圈。我們正在德克薩斯州奧斯汀的 Giga 工廠建造一條 Cyber​​truck 生產線，並在機器人計程車平台設計方面取得了巨大進展。

And then with respect to batteries, we're moving as fast as possible to have -- to achieve 1,000 gigawatt hours a year of production capacity in the United States, vertically integrated. And our cap load refining, we're moving a ton of speed to do that.

至於電池，我們正在盡快採取行動——在美國實現每年 1,000 千兆瓦時的生產能力，並進行垂直整合。我們正在以極快的速度精煉我們的負載上限。

So I think it's an incredibly exciting future and really an unprecedented future. None of this would be possible without the incredible team that we have here at Tesla. So I'd like to give a huge shout-out to all of our factory employees, engineers, executives and the whole Tesla team. You guys rock. You're the ones that make it happen. Thank you. Thank you, everyone.

所以我認為這是一個令人難以置信的令人興奮的未來，也是一個前所未有的未來。如果沒有特斯拉出色的團隊，這一切都不可能實現。因此，我想向我們工廠的所有員工、工程師、高階主管和整個特斯拉團隊致以最誠摯的謝意。你們太棒了。你們就是讓這一切成為現實的人。謝謝。謝謝大家。

Thank you very much. And Zach has some opening remarks as well.

非常感謝。札克也發表了一些開場白。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. Just to continue on Elon's theme, I just want to thank and congratulate the Tesla team for achieving record vehicle deliveries, production and storage deployments in the third quarter.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。繼續埃隆的主題，我只想感謝並祝賀特斯拉團隊在第三季度實現了創紀錄的汽車交付、生產和儲存部署。

On automotive profitability, our GAAP operating margin was 17.2%, with automotive gross margin at 27.9%. Operating margin is one of our best yet, with improvements in operating leverage. However, Austin and Berlin ramp costs weighed on our margins, particularly if you compare it to Q1.

在汽車獲利能力方面，我們的 GAAP 營業利潤率為 17.2%，汽車毛利率為 27.9%。營業利潤率是我們迄今為止最好的之一，並且營業槓桿率有所提高。然而，奧斯汀和柏林的坡道成本對我們的利潤率造成了壓力，特別是與第一季相比。

Removing regulatory credits and Austin and Berlin, our operating margins would have been our strongest yet and auto gross margin would have been nearly 30%. Note that while small and growing, each car we build in Austin and Berlin is contributing positively to profitability.

除去監管信貸以及奧斯汀和柏林的影響，我們的營業利潤率將達到迄今為止的最高水平，汽車毛利率將接近 30%。請注意，雖然規模較小且正在成長，但我們在奧斯汀和柏林生產的每輛汽車都對盈利能力做出了積極貢獻。

We also continue to experience margin headwinds associated with macroeconomic conditions, as we've discussed at length on prior calls, In particular, raw materials, logistics and foreign exchange was a big part of this past quarter.

我們也繼續經歷與宏觀經濟條件相關的利潤逆風，正如我們在先前的電話會議上詳細討論的那樣，特別是原材料、物流和外匯是上個季度的重要組成部分。

On energy profitability, we achieved our strongest gross profit yet for this business, driven primarily by record volumes of our Megapack and Powerwall products. Our free cash flows were also a record despite an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter, which has a negative impact on working capital.

在能源獲利能力方面，我們實現了迄今為止該業務的最高毛利，主要得益於我們的 Megapack 和 Powerwall 產品創紀錄的銷售量。儘管本季末運輸車輛數量增加，對營運資金產生了負面影響，但我們的自由現金流仍創下了紀錄。

Specifically on cars in transit, as noted in our press release on October 2, we've started to experience limits on outbound logistics capacity which we didn't anticipate. This issue is particularly present for ships from Shanghai to Europe and local trucking within certain parts of the U.S. and Europe. Our historical operating pattern of batch building by delivery region leads to extreme concentrations of outbound logistics needs in the final weeks of each quarter. Just to put this in perspective, roughly 2/3 of our Q3 deliveries occurred in September and 1/3 in the final 2 weeks. As a result, we have begun to smooth the regional builds throughout the quarter to reduce our peak needs for outbound logistics. We expect this to simplify our operations, reduce costs and improve the experience of our customers.

具體來說，對於運輸中的汽車，正如我們 10 月 2 日的新聞稿中所述，我們已經開始遇到出站物流能力的限制，這是我們沒有預料到的。這個問題尤其存在於從上海到歐洲的船舶以及美國和歐洲部分地區的本地卡車運輸。我們過去按照交貨區域進行批量建設的營運模式導致每個季度的最後幾週出站物流需求極度集中。為了更清楚地說明這一點，我們第三季大約 2/3 的交付發生在 9 月份，1/3 發生在最後兩週。因此，我們已開始在整個季度平穩推進區域建設，以減少我們對出站物流的高峰需求。我們希望這能簡化我們的營運、降低成本並改善客戶體驗。

As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in production this year, although we are tracking supply chain risks, which are beyond our control. On the delivery side, we do expect to be just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year, as noted, just above. This means that, again, you should expect a gap between production and deliveries in Q4, and those cars in transit will be delivered shortly to their customers upon arrival to their destination in Q1.

展望未來，我們的計劃表明，今年我們的產量預計將實現 50% 的年增長率，儘管我們正在追蹤我們無法控制的供應鏈風險。在交貨方面，如上文所述，由於年底運輸車輛數量增加，我們預計成長率將略低於 50%。這意味著，您應該再次預計第四季度的生產和交付之間存在差距，並且那些在運輸途中的汽車將在第一季度到達目的地後不久交付給客戶。

Boston and Berlin ramp costs will continue to weigh on margins, although we expect the impact to be less than what we saw in Q3. And as Elon mentioned, we are continuing to build as many cars as possible while also maintaining strong operating margins. Thank you.

波士頓和柏林的停機坪成本將繼續對利潤率造成壓力，儘管我們預計其影響將小於第三季的水平。正如埃隆所說，我們將繼續生產盡可能多的汽車，同時保持強勁的營業利潤率。謝謝。

Thank you very much. And let's go first to the shareholder questions. The first shareholder question is: given the stringent battery content and assembly requirements for consumer tax credit eligibility under the Inflation Reduction Act, can you speak to Tesla's ability to meet those thresholds in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 through your existing and planned supply chain?

非常感謝。我們先來回答股東的問題。第一個股東問題是：鑑於《通貨膨脹削減法案》對消費者稅收抵免資格的電池內容和組裝要求嚴格，您能否談談特斯拉通過現有和計劃中的供應鏈在 2023 年、2024 年和 2025 年分別達到這些門檻的能力？

Well, yes, I mean I think -- just at a high level I'd say, we do expect to fully meet the IRA's requirements. Do you want to add?

嗯，是的，我的意思是我認為——從高層次上來說，我們確實希望完全滿足 IRA 的要求。您想添加嗎？

Yes. We view that passing of the Inflation Reduction Act there's a significant boost towards accelerating automation, while also scaling the battery supply chain at large in the United States. We expect Treasury to publish detailed guidance by the end of the year. Until such time, it's difficult to fully determine the eligibility criteria, but we believe Tesla is very well positioned to capture a significant share of that for solar storage and also electric vehicles.

是的。我們認為，《通膨削減法案》的通過在加速自動化方面將起到顯著的推動作用，同時也將擴大美國的電池供應鏈。我們預計財政部將在年底前發布詳細指引。在此之前，很難完全確定資格標準，但我們相信特斯拉完全有能力在太陽能儲存和電動車領域佔據相當大的份額。

Yes, I'd like to say we're -- like I said earlier, we're going to go basically pedal to the metal as fast as humanly possible to get to 1,000 gigawatt hours a year of production in the U.S., vertically integrated.

是的，我想說，就像我之前說的，我們將以最快的速度全力以赴，在美國實現每年 1,000 千兆瓦時的垂直整合生產。

Thank you. Let's go to the next question. The next question is, what updates can you offer on the backlog and the recent order intake trends, especially outside of the U.S. and especially in China?

謝謝。我們來看下一個問題。下一個問題是，您能否提供有關積壓訂單和近期訂單趨勢的哪些更新信息，尤其是美國以外地區和中國的情況？

Well, it's -- there's definitely -- China is experiencing a reverse of a recession of sorts, which is property market, simply from a property market mostly. And Europe has recession of sorts driven by energy. The U.S. actually isn't -- North America has a pretty good health. The Fed is raising interest rates more than they should, but I think they'll eventually realize that and bring it back down again.

嗯，中國確實正在經歷某種衰退的逆轉，主要是房地產市場。歐洲也出現了由能源問題引發的經濟衰退。但美國實際上並非如此——北美的健康狀況相當良好。聯準會正在提高利率，但我認為他們最終會意識到這一點，並再次降低利率。

Demand is a little higher than it would otherwise be. But as I said earlier, we are extremely confident of a great Q4, and we anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries by -- on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see.

需求比原本應該的高一點。但正如我之前所說，我們對第四季度的出色表現非常有信心，我們預計，在未來很長一段時間內，我們的汽車產量、銷售量和交付量將繼續以平均每年 50% 的速度增長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Actually I want to caveat, I should say, growing production by 30% every year because deliveries -- we're trying to smooth out the deliveries and not have this crazy delivery way at the end of every quarter. So in fact, we're just fundamentally running out of -- there weren't enough boats, there weren't enough trains, there weren't enough car carriers to actually support the wave because it got too big. So whether we like it or not, we actually have to smooth out the delivery of cars intra-quarter because there aren't just enough transportation objects to move them around.

實際上我想提出一個警告，應該說，每年產量增加 30% 是因為交付——我們正試圖平穩交付，而不是在每個季度末都出現這種瘋狂的交付方式。所以事實上，我們從根本上已經用完了——沒有足夠的船隻，沒有足夠的火車，沒有足夠的汽車運輸船來真正支撐海浪，因為海浪太大了。因此，無論我們是否喜歡，我們實際上都必須在季度內平穩交付汽車，因為沒有足夠的運輸工具來運輸它們。

Thank you. The next question is, do you still expect 50% annualized growth for the foreseeable future? Is this also true specifically for the Chinese domestic market? Do you expect to need to cut the vehicle prices or offer incentives in any market to sustain demand? Or has demand remained stable? Or is it even rising? There are 3 questions there.

謝謝。下一個問題是，您是否仍預計在可預見的未來實現 50% 的年化成長率？對於中國國內市場也是如此嗎？您是否預計需要降低汽車價格或在任何市場提供激勵措施來維持需求？或需求保持穩定？或者它甚至還在上升？那裡有 3 個問題。

Well, like I said, we want to sort of focus on a high level on what we think is possible here. To the best of our knowledge, we believe that Tesla will continue to grow deliveries and revenue production at a 50% or greater compound annual growth rate. It might occasionally be a year that is a little less, and then some years would be maybe a little more or a lot more. In some of our out-year planning, we see potential annual growth rates that are in excess of 50%.

嗯，就像我說的，我們希望從高層次關注我們認為可能實現的事情。據我們所知，我們相信特斯拉將繼續以 50% 或更高的複合年增長率增加交付量和收入。有時候，某一年可能會少一點，而有些年份可能會多一點或多很多。在我們的一些未來年度規劃中，我們看到潛在的年增長率超過 50%。

Thank you. The next question is, can you tell us more about the product feature road map beyond new models and FSD, and especially for interior and powertrain of existing vehicle models?

謝謝。下一個問題是，您能否向我們詳細介紹除了新車型和FSD之外的產品功能路線圖，特別是現有車型的內裝和動力系統？

We could, but we won't. Sorry, guys, we can't like jumping on, on future product announcements.

我們可以，但我們不會。抱歉，各位，我們不能貿然發布未來的產品公告。

Committed to continuing on.

決心繼續前進。

Yes, we obviously are, yes. But we'll also be committed to continuous growth. Yes, at Tesla, we've always been committed to continuous improvement. So friends might have asked me like, when should I buy a car, I'm like, now. Because we just keep improving the cars. Always been the latest Tesla. Yes, there's still the latest Tesla.

是的，我們顯然是的，是的。但我們也將致力於持續成長。是的，在特斯拉，我們一直致力於持續改善。所以朋友可能會問我，什麼時候該買車，我的答案是，現在。因為我們一直在不斷改進汽車。始終都是最新的特斯拉。是的，還有最新的特斯拉。

I don't really -- yes, -- around the gain, we do have some big technology upgrade like Plaid. And by the way, I think the Plaid Model S and X are the best cars on earth. There's nothing even close, in my opinion. Just try one. Epic.

我確實不這麼認為——是的——從收益來看，我們確實有一些像 Plaid 這樣的重大技術升級。順便說一句，我認為 Plaid Model S 和 X 是世界上最好的車。在我看來，沒有什麼能與之相比。只需嘗試一次。史詩。

Thank you. The next question is, we keep hearing of dire energy crisis in Germany this winter. What are Tesla's plans to combat power cuts? And will there be any delays in ramp-up in production from Giga Berlin because of this?

謝謝。下一個問題是，我們不斷聽到今年冬天德國將面臨嚴重的能源危機。特斯拉針對停電有何計畫？那麼，柏林超級工廠的產量提升是否因此而延遲？

Yes, I can take that. I think 2 points on this question. The first is that based upon everything that we know, we don't see this as a large risk to the company. Even if production did go down for a period of time, this is on near term, it doesn't have any impact on the long term of the company.

是的，我可以接受。對於這個問題，我認為有兩點。首先，根據我們所了解的一切，我們認為這對公司來說並不是什麼大風險。即使產量在一段時間內下降，這也是短期的，不會對公司的長期發展產生任何影響。

But we don't -- we have no indication whatsoever that we will have to cut our production in Germany.

但我們沒有任何跡象表明我們必須削減在德國的產量。

No. And we put in place backup plans, and we're working through the supply chain as well. Nearly all of our suppliers are prepared as well. So we'll see how this plays out, but it's not something that we're terribly worried about.

沒有。我們制定了備用計劃，並且也在處理供應鏈問題。我們幾乎所有的供應商也都做好了準備。所以我們會看看事情會如何發展，但這不是我們非常擔心的事情。

Thank you. And the next question is, how is production planning going for the Cybertruck? What is the initial Phase 1 production target? When can we expect an update on pricing and final design?

謝謝。下一個問題是，Cyber​​truck 的生產計劃進度如何？第一階段的初始生產目標是什麼？我們什麼時候可以獲得有關定價和最終設計的更新資訊？

Yes. I mean as Elon said earlier, we'd be on -- so these preparations here in Giga Texas for Cybertruck, we're still on track to enter early production in the middle of next year. We started our data builds of all of the battery body in the existing...

是的。我的意思是，正如埃隆之前所說，我們會繼續進行——所以在德克薩斯州 Giga 工廠為 Cyber​​truck 所做的這些準備工作，我們仍然有望在明年年中進入早期生產階段。我們開始對現有的所有電池主體進行資料建構…

When should I drop my beta?

我應該什麼時候放棄我的測試版？

In a few weeks. That's going well, and we continue ramping up through the end of next year and into 2023.

幾週後。一切進展順利，我們將繼續加大力度，直至明年年底和 2023 年。

Great. Yes, the car is going to be sick and sick. That is going to be a hall of famer, next level.

偉大的。是啊，車子要出毛病了，病也得出。那將會是名人堂，更高等級的。

Sorry, sorry, it took longer than expected, but there were a few things that got in the way, like insane global supply chain shortages like FedEx, force majeure, if there ever was one.

抱歉，抱歉，這比預期花費的時間要長，但有一些事情阻礙了它，例如聯邦快遞等嚴重的全球供應鏈短缺，以及不可抗力（如果有的話）。

Right. Thank you.

正確的。謝謝。

Of course, there's Tesla Semi, of course. So we'll be handing over our first production Tesla Semis to Pepsi on December 1. I'll be there in person. And we will begin ramping up production of the Tesla Semi, which is a max low, heavy truck. That's a Class A truck, Class A truck.

當然，還有特斯拉 Semi。因此，我們將於 12 月 1 日將第一輛量產的特斯拉 Semi 交付給百事可樂。我會親自到場。我們將開始加大特斯拉 Semi 的產量，這是一輛超低、重型卡車。那是一輛 A 級卡車，A 級卡車。

No sacrifice to cargo capacity.

不會犧牲貨物容量。

Yes, exactly, very important, no sacrifice to cargo capacity, 500-mile range. Just to be clear, 500 miles with the cargo. Yes, 500 miles with the cargo on level ground. Yes, sure. It's excellent. But the point is it's a long-range truck and even with heavy cargo. And the number of times people told me, "You can't, it's impossible to make a long-range heavy-duty Class A truck." And then I'll ask, well, what are your assumptions about what hours per kilogram and what hours per mile, and they look at me with a blank stare and then say hydrogen.

是的，確實非常重要，不犧牲載貨能力，500 英里的續航里程。需要明確的是，載貨里程為 500 英里。是的，貨物在平地上行駛 500 英里。是的，當然。非常好。 但重點是它是一輛長距離卡車，甚至可以運載重型貨物。人們多次告訴我，「你做不到，製造長距離重型 A 級卡車是不可能的。」然後我會問，那麼，你對每公斤和每英里需要多少小時的假設是什麼，他們茫然地看著我，然後說氫。

I'm like, no, that's not the answer. I was looking for numbers literally. It's not a number. It's a table. You obviously don't need hydrogen for heavy trucking.

我想說，不，這不是答案。我實際上是在尋找數字。這不是一個數字。這是一張桌子。顯然，重型卡車運輸不需要氫氣。

And we'll be ramping up Semi production through next year. As I think everyone knows at this point, it takes about a year to ramp up production. So we expect to see significant -- we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America. And obviously, we'll expand beyond North America. And these would sell -- I don't want to say the exact prices, but they're much more than a passenger vehicle. So with a few thousand, heavy trucks of this nature would be worth several Model Ys.

明年我們將提高半成品產量。我想現在大家都知道，提高產量大約需要一年的時間。因此，我們預計會看到顯著的成長——我們暫時的目標是到 2024 年在北美銷售 50,000 輛特斯拉 Semi。顯然，我們將擴展到北美以外。這些車的售價——我不想透露具體價格，但它們的價值遠不止是一輛乘用車。因此，幾千輛這種重型卡車的價值就等於幾輛 Model Y。

Thank you. The next question is, what is the progress of the 4680 cell ramp? And what factors determine whether vehicles get 2170s versus 4680 cells? And how will that change in the next year?

謝謝。下一個問題是，4,680電池量產的進展如何？那麼，哪些因素決定車輛採用 2170 電池還是 4680 電池呢？明年這種情況會如何改變？

Yes, ramp is going well, as Elon said. Total output is up 3x quarter-over-quarter, and production is tracking to exceed 1,000 cars per week this quarter, as we said last quarter. Our focus is now shifting from 100% ramp to cost and further expanding production capacity in North America, as Elon also mentioned.

是的，正如埃隆所說，進度提升進展順利。正如我們上個季度所說，總產量較上季成長了 3 倍，本季產量預計將超過每週 1,000 輛汽車。正如 Elon 所提到的，我們現在的重點是從 100% 的產能提升轉向成本並進一步擴大北方的生產能力。

On the 2170 versus 4680, in our factories, we really attempt to minimize factory complexity and product changeover while still making sure we get enough new product into the field to learn how it is performing. And that sort of mix is going to shift as 4680 scales here and the overall factory ramp proceeds in Texas.

在我們的工廠中，對於 2170 和 4680，我們確實試圖盡量減少工廠的複雜性和產品轉換，同時仍確保我們投入足夠的新產品以了解其性能。隨著 4680 的規模擴大以及德克薩斯州整體工廠產能的提升，這種組合將發生變化。

Right. Basically, production of 4680 ramp is growing exponentially. And yes, it's going well. We're just looking at this as just going to be a major back to the future.

正確的。基本上，4680 坡道的產量呈指數級增長。是的，一切進展順利。我們只是將此視為重返未來的重大事件。

Yes. And like I said, we're -- our goal is to strive towards 1,000 gigawatt hours a year of annualized production in United States alone by Tesla, not including [SpaceX.] It will be on top of that.

是的。正如我所說的，我們的目標是，光是在美國，特斯拉就力爭實現每年 1,000 千兆瓦時的年產量，這還不包括 [SpaceX]。這將是在此基礎上的。

We need to get 300 to 400 terawatt hours to accomplish our goal.

我們需要獲得 300 到 400 太瓦時的電力才能實現我們的目標。

Yes, there's roughly -- to transition to sustainable energy, our price calculation for both stationary and vehicles is 300,000 to 400,000 gigawatt hours or 300 to 400 terawatt hours.

是的，大致如此——為了過渡到可持續能源，我們對固定能源和車輛的價格計算是 300,000 到 400,000 吉瓦時或 300 到 400 太瓦時。

So when you're like 1 tower assembling a lot, well, it's a lot of terawatt hours to get by.

因此，當你像一座塔一樣組裝很多東西時，那麼，就需要大量的太瓦時。

Yes. And on the cathode side, the main cathode we think will probably be iron and most of the iron can scale to very, very high tonnage and then some nickel. The exact percentages are hard to figure out, but it'd probably be twice as much iron cathodes as nickel, maybe more. And then there's the manganese wildcard as well.

是的。在陰極方面，我們認為主要的陰極可能是鐵，而且大部分鐵可以擴展到非常非常高的噸位，然後是一些鎳。確切的百分比很難確定，但鐵陰極的含量可能是鎳陰極的兩倍，甚至更多。此外，還有錳的通配符。

No. And on that note, we're pursuing aggressively North American iron supplies. And how -- yes, we can talk more about that at a future date.

不。就此而言，我們正積極爭取北美鐵礦供應。以及如何——是的，我們可以在將來進一步討論這個問題。

Yes. Thank you. The next question is on the Semi truck, which we already addressed. So I'm going to skip to the next one. Can you talk about how Tesla could adjust if we were to enter a prolonged recession, including new product prioritization, investment flexibility, new factory versus factory expansion, service support infrastructure, productivity cost measures and demand stimulation alternatives?

是的。謝謝。下一個問題是關於半掛卡車的，我們已經討論過了。因此我將跳到下一個。您能否談談如果我們陷入長期經濟衰退，特斯拉該如何調整，包括新產品優先順序、投資靈活性、新工廠與工廠擴建、服務支援基礎設施、生產力成本措施和需求刺激替代方案？

Well, to be frank, we're very pedal to the metal, come rain or shine. So we are not reducing our production in any meaningful way. We're essential, not recession.

嗯，坦白說，無論晴雨，我們都會全力以赴。因此，我們不會以任何有意義的方式減少產量。我們至關重要，而不是經濟衰退。

It's the 1% point you made.

這是您提出的 1% 點。

Yes, exactly. So I think the public, at large, realizes that the world's moving towards electric vehicles. And that it's foolish to actually buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So I think we are in a very good spot. But I wouldn't say it's recession-proof. But it's certainly recession-resilient because, basically, it has -- people both have large part made the decision to move from gasoline cars to electric cars.

是的，確實如此。所以我認為廣大大眾已經意識到世界正在朝向電動車邁進。而此時購買新的汽油車是愚蠢的，因為汽油車的剩餘價值會非常低。所以我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置。但我不會說它能夠抵禦經濟衰退。但它肯定具有抵禦經濟衰退的能力，因為基本上，人們已經在很大程度上決定從汽油車轉向電動車。

And then in transitioning electricity generation to sustainable, you need solar and wind with the stationary battery pack to buffer the power. So you have 24/7 power because the wind doesn't blow -- doesn't travel in time. So that also -- we actually see the energy storage business, stationary storage, growing more like 150% to 200% a year, much faster than cars by a lot.

然後，在將發電轉變為可持續發電的過程中，您需要太陽能和風能以及固定電池組來緩衝電力。因此，您擁有全天候電力，因為風不會吹 - 不會隨著時間而移動。因此，我們實際上也看到能源儲存業務、固定儲存業務每年的成長速度達到 150% 到 200%，比汽車業務的成長速度快得多。

Just to add before you jump in, Martin. Just to echo Elon's point, I mean, I think where our cash balance is, what our forecasted cash generation is, where our margins are as a company, I mean we can withstand quite a lot of downside before we would have to dig into our capital plans, Supercharger expansion, product lineup.

馬丁，在你開始之前，我還要補充一點。只是為了呼應 Elon 的觀點，我的意思是，我認為我們的現金餘額是多少，我們預測的現金產生量是多少，我們作為一家公司的利潤率是多少，我的意思是我們可以承受相當大的不利影響，然後我們才必須深入研究我們的資本計劃、增壓器擴張和產品陣容。

So the business has done quite well over the last handful of quarters. And this is a real opportunity, I think, for the company to press forward most aggressively, as Elon has mentioned.

因此，過去幾季的業務表現相當不錯。我認為，正如埃隆所提到的，這對公司來說是一個真正的機會，可以使其更加積極地向前發展。

Yes, we try to model out like, let's say, 2023 is a brutal recession year. Even then, we generate meaningful cash, once you get out of that for pressure forward.

是的，我們嘗試模擬，比如說，2023 年是嚴重的經濟衰退年。即便如此，一旦你擺脫了前進的壓力，我們也能賺取可觀的現金。

Great. Thank you very much. And let's go to the last investor question, which is the progression from Tesla's first platform with SMX to the second platform with 3 and Y led to a 50% reduction in cost of goods sold. When do you see Tesla's third platform being released? And what level of cost of goods sold reduction could you achieve?

偉大的。非常感謝。讓我們進入最後一個投資者問題，即特斯拉從第一個 SMX 平台發展到第二個 3 和 Y 平台，導致銷售成本降低了 50%。您認為特斯拉的第三個平台什麼時候會發布？您能將銷售成本降低到何種程度？

Well, we don't want to talk exact dates, but this is a -- I mean, the primary focus of our new vehicle development team, obviously. But at this point, we've done the engineering for Cybertrucks and for Semi. So it's obviously against what we're working on, which is the next-generation vehicle, which will be probably about the cost of 3 and Y platform. It will be smaller, to be clear. But it will, I think, certainly become -- certainly exceed the production of all our other vehicles combined.

嗯，我們不想談論具體的日期，但這顯然是我們新車開發團隊的主要關注點。但目前，我們已經完成了 Cyber​​trucks 和 Semi 的工程設計。因此，這顯然與我們正在進行的下一代汽車的工作相悖，其成本可能與 3 和 Y 平台相當。顯然，它會變得更小。但我認為，它的產量肯定會超過我們所有其他車輛的總產量。

I mean obviously, we're going to take everything we learned from S, X, 3, Y, Cybertruck and Semi into that platform. But we -- as you've said to us many times, we're on a 2-for-1 target. We're trying to get to that 50% number again.

我的意思是，顯然我們將從 S、X、3、Y、Cyber​​truck 和 Semi 學到的所有東西都運用到該平台中。但是，正如您多次對我們說的那樣，我們的目標是 2 比 1。我們正在努力再次達到 50% 這一數字。

It's like, we're going to take 2. If that's exactly what it would take, 2. How are we making 2 cars for the amount of effort that currently takes us to make 1 Model 3.

就像，我們要生產 2 輛。如果這就是我們需要的，2 輛。我們怎麼能用目前生產 1 輛 Model 3 所需的努力來生產 2 輛汽車呢？

Yes. Effort costs.

是的。努力是有代價的。

Yes. All things Considered.

是的。總體而言。

Half the loss, half the past, half the factory floor space. We're twice the output.

一半損失，一半過去，一半工廠佔地面積。我們的產量是原來的兩倍。

And we do believe this can be done. By the way, I should mention that when I said that probably now that I see a path in extremely very difficult path, incredible execution required, a massive amount of hard work and some luck to get to where Tesla is worth as much as Apple and Saudi Aramco combined, I wasn't including Optimus.

我們確實相信這是可以做到的。順便說一句，我應該提到，當我說現在我看到了一條極其艱難的道路，需要令人難以置信的執行力、大量的努力和一些運氣才能讓特斯拉的價值達到蘋果和沙特阿美的總和時，我並沒有把擎天柱包括在內。

Thank you. Let's go to analyst questions next. The first question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

謝謝。接下來我們來看分析師的提問。第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Great. Can you hear me?

偉大的。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

So Elon, would you consider vertically integrating into mining? That's my first question.

那麼埃隆，你會考慮垂直整合採礦業嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

We'll do whatever we have to. Whatever limiting factor is, we'll do. We do not personally constrain ourselves. We don't particularly integrate just for the hell of particularly integrating. Like if there was a great supplier who's better than us or we think actively is very good, or even where the economics of comparative advantage suggests that we should use that supplier, even if we could beat them, but we could use our resources to do something else that will be more productive, then we would in-source in that case. But if we have to go mine, we will mine.

我們將盡一切努力。無論限制因素是什麼，我們都會去做。我們不會親自限制自己。我們並不是為了特別整合而特別整合。例如，如果有一家供應商比我們更好，或者我們積極認為這家供應商非常好，或者比較優勢的經濟學表明我們應該使用該供應商，即使我們可以擊敗他們，但我們可以利用我們的資源來做一些更有成效的事情，那麼在這種情況下，我們會進行內部採購。但如果我們必須去開採，我們就會去開採。

Elon, my follow-up is 1 terawatt hour of manufacturing in the United States, vertically integrated. I guess my question is what would need to change with U.S. permitting laws to allow that? Kind of what would be your message to this administration or next? And do you think you could do a terawatt hour? What's the going price of that? Can you do that for under $100 billion in the States?

埃隆，我的後續目標是在美國實現 1 太瓦時的製造，垂直整合。我想我的問題是，美國許可法需要做哪些改變才能允許？您想對本屆政府或下一屆政府說些什麼呢？您認為您能生產出一太瓦時嗎？它的現價是多少？在美國，你能以不到 1000 億美元的成本做到這一點嗎？

Well, I mean, I think the message to the government would be that there should be -- I should say, we've actually had conversations with a number of senior government leaders, White House, Congress and whatnot. And the suggestion that we have is that there should be an expedited permitting process for anything which is critical to a sustainable energy future.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為向政府傳達的訊息是應該——我應該說，我們實際上已經與多位高級政府領導人、白宮、國會等進行了對話。我們的建議是，對於任何對永續能源未來至關重要的事情都應該加快許可程序。

So it doesn't make sense to put like a coal mine and a sustainable energy battery like lithium mine in the same category. Coal does not in the future, lithium does. And by the way, you can extract lithium with almost no disturbance to the local environment. So it's not actually ugly, nasty mining situation.

因此，將煤礦和鋰礦等永續能源電池歸類為同一類別是沒有意義的。未來煤炭不會，但鋰會。順便說一句，提取鋰幾乎不會對當地環境造成乾擾。所以這其實並不是醜陋、糟糕的採礦狀況。

So I would recommend, expedited permitting would really be helpful. Basically, a fast track environmentally, I think in a sense, fast track things that are important for the environment and the communities. That seems logical. And the reception has been positive. So we'll see if something happens with that.

所以我建議，加快許可確實會很有幫助。基本上，從某種意義上說，我認為，環境方面的快速發展，是指對環境和社區都很重要的事情的快速發展。這似乎合乎邏輯。且反響也十分正面。因此我們將看看是否會發生什麼事情。

I think probably on this earnings call, we're not ready to go into financial details of the -- what will take to get there. But what we are seeing is practical improvements as we redesign the whole supply chain and all of the elements that go into battery cell. We're figuring out dramatic efficiencies. And I think we'll -- net result which would be that the capital required to achieve that level output will be much less work than people think.

我認為，在這次收益電話會議上，我們可能還沒有準備好討論實現這一目標所需的財務細節。但隨著我們重新設計整個供應鏈和電池單元的所有元素，我們看到了實際的改進。我們正在尋求顯著的效率。我認為我們的最終結果是，實現該水準產出所需的資本將比人們想像的要少得多。

Thank you very much. Let's go to the next question from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

非常感謝。讓我們來看看富國銀行的 Colin Langan 提出的下一個問題。

Can you hear me now?

現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Okay. Any update on full self-driving? I think you had said a couple of quarters ago, would be available by the end of the year. Is that still possible? Is it -- would it still be like a Level 4 or Level 5 that you're talking about? And are there any sort of regulatory hurdles you'd have to think about?

好的。關於全自動駕駛有任何最新消息嗎？我想您在幾個季度前就說過，將在年底前上市。這還有可能嗎？它是否仍像您談論的 4 級或 5 級？您是否需要考慮任何監管障礙？

We -- as I said earlier, we're expecting to release the full self-driving software to anyone who orders the package by the end of this year. So a separate matter as to will it have regulatory approval, it won't have regulatory approval at that time. But the car will be able to take you from your home to your work, to your friend's house, to the grocery store without you touching the wheel. So it's looking very good.

正如我之前所說，我們預計將在今年年底前向訂購該套件的任何人發布完整的自動駕駛軟體。因此，它是否會獲得監管部門的批准是另一回事，屆時它不會獲得監管部門的批准。但是汽車可以帶你從家裡到工作地點、朋友家、雜貨店，而你無需觸摸方向盤。所以看起來非常好。

And it would mean like Level 4, Level 5 kind of traditional definition you're talking about?

這是否意味著您談論的是第 4 級、第 5 級的傳統定義？

Well, there's debate is like what's the -- what are the interventions per mile and maybe safety interventions per mile. Like we're not saying that, that's quite ready to have no one behind the wheel. It's just that you will almost never have to touch the control, vehicle controllers.

嗯，爭論的焦點是每英里的干預措施是多少，每英里的安全乾預措施是多少。就像我們不是這麼說的，這已經準備好讓無人駕駛了。只是您幾乎永遠不需要觸控控制器、車輛控制器。

So like when I came to Giga Texas from Brent's house, I never touched any of the controls right here. And then there is a longer process of like called the march of nines, of like how many nines reliability do you need before you could really be comfortable saying that the car could drive with no one in it. And that's -- subjectivity as to how many nines you need. But I think we'll be pretty close to having enough nines that you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year.

所以當我從布倫特家來到 Giga Texas 時，我從來沒有碰過這裡的任何控制裝置。然後還有一個更長的過程，稱為“九的進程”，即需要多少個“九”的可靠性，你才能真正放心地說汽車可以在沒有人的情況下行駛。這就是——你需要多少個「9」的主觀性。但我認為，到今年年底，我們的數字將接近 9，屆時車內將無人駕駛。

And certainly, without a question, that's in my mind next year. I think we'll also have an update next year to be able to show to regulators that the car is safe, much so than the average human.

當然，毫無疑問，明年我會考慮這個。我認為明年我們還將進行更新，以便向監管機構證明汽車比一般人安全得多。

Got it. And just as a follow-up. You mentioned in the prior questions about IRA. I mean it sounded like you thought you could get -- can you get all of it? I mean because my interpretation is like the production credits, battery component, credits for buyers seems very likely for you guys. Is the sourcing part of it possible? Because that seems like a pretty tough hurdle given how much has to be sourced from the U.S.

知道了。這只是後續行動。您在先前的問題中提到了 IRA。我的意思是，聽起來你認為你可以得到——你能得到全部嗎？我的意思是，因為我的理解是，生產信用、電池組件、買家信用對你們來說似乎很有可能。其採購部分是否可行？因為考慮到有多少產品需要從美國採購，這似乎是一個相當困難的障礙。

Yes. So we have a cross-functional team that's looking very closely. As you mentioned, the sourcing threshold increases by the year. So we're looking at all options and also getting some clarification from treasury. That's -- it's important to say that's only a fraction of the other credits. We do manufacture ourselves in the U.S. We manufacture the modules in the U.S. So that's a pretty clear. So yes, we feel confident that we'll have a path as these incentives, as the threshold sort of increases by the year.

是的。因此，我們有一個跨職能團隊正在密切關注。正如您所說，採購門檻逐年提高。因此，我們正在研究所有選擇，並從財政部獲得一些澄清。那是——重要的是，這只是其他學分的一小部分。我們確實在美國進行生產。我們在美國生產模組。所以這很清楚。所以是的，我們相信，隨著這些激勵措施的實施，隨著門檻逐年提高，我們將找到一條出路。

Yes. We'll meet those thresholds.

是的。我們將達到這些門檻。

Thank you. The next question comes from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

謝謝。下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的 Colin Rusch。

The operating leverage has been pretty impressive here. And I'm curious about areas where you could invest in an incremental way, whether it's on the R&D side or on the sales side to accelerate growth or cost reduction. Or should we be thinking about this level of spend on a go-forward basis and some significant operating leverage as you scale up from here?

這裡的經營槓桿相當令人印象深刻。我很好奇您可以以增量方式投資哪些領域，無論是在研發方面還是在銷售方面，以加速成長或降低成本。或者，我們是否應該考慮未來支出的水平，以及隨著您從現在開始擴大規模，一些重要的營運槓桿？

I mean our operating leverage has improved quite a bit. It's the lowest this quarter, I think, ever, and by a decent amount. OpEx as a percentage of revenue, I mean, our forecast is that it will keep reducing. I mean I think the way to think about it is our total amount of operating expenses will slowly tick up as the company grows.

我的意思是我們的經營槓桿已經提高了很多。我認為，這是本季以來的最低水平，而且幅度相當大。我的意思是，我們預測營運支出佔收入的百分比將會持續下降。我的意思是，我認為應該這樣想：隨著公司的發展，我們的總營運費用將會緩慢上升。

It's very hard to keep it flat with the rapid growth of the company, but it's growing much slower. So some amount of growth there, but the top line of the business is growing so quickly. So I think there continues to be enormous opportunity to improve the overhead efficiency of the business, and we're seeing it.

隨著公司的快速成長，保持平穩非常困難，但成長速度卻慢得多。因此，雖然存在一定程度的成長，但業務收入成長非常快。因此，我認為仍然存在巨大的機會來提高業務的管理費用效率，而且我們正在看到這一點。

Yes. Look, we are in the -- at least for now, quite in a good position of we're investing in everything we can think of to possibly invest in, and we're still generating cash. So I guess it gets a pretty good place to be.

是的。你看，至少目前，我們處於一個相當好的位置，我們正在投資我們能想到的所有可能投資的東西，而且我們仍在產生現金。所以我想它應該是一個相當不錯的地方。

Yes. I mean how many R&D programs are we running in parallel right now.

是的。我的意思是我們現在同時運行多少個研發項目。

People don't even know old R&D per day. There are some of it, but a bunch of it.

人們甚至不知道每天的舊研發情況。有一些，但還有很多。

I also don't think cash is a good gauge of how much R&D you're doing.

我也不認為現金是衡量你進行多少研發的良好標準。

No. It isn't because like it's not like -- it's not like engineers, they're not generic. So it's just like if you could you spend $5 billion or $10 billion, that will like -- that your actual R&D or useful product ship will be proportionate to that. It's just not true. Engineers aren't coming on some assembly line like cookies or something.

不，這並不是因為它不像——它不像工程師，他們不是普通人。因此，如果你可以花費 50 億美元或 100 億美元，那麼你的實際研發或有用產品出貨量將與此成比例。這根本不是事實。工程師不會來到一些裝配線上，例如生產餅乾或別的東西。

Until we get optimistic.

直到我們變得樂觀為止。

Optimistic. Don't change things. What matters is where are the most brilliant people working. And Tesla remains the -- Tesla and SpaceX are 2 companies where the smartest engineers want to work.

樂觀的。不要改變事物。重要的是最聰明的人在哪裡工作。特斯拉仍然是——特斯拉和 SpaceX 是兩家最聰明的工程師都想工作的公司。

I mean like we don't have to spend billions of dollars to invest in the future and invent the future. Engineers are also cost-conscious. And we don't just burn the money out the window when we're trying to do R&D. I would stop looking at like R&D as a cash investment for how much...

我的意思是我們不必花費數十億美元來投資未來和創造未來。工程師也非常注重成本。當我們嘗試進行研發時，我們不會把錢浪費掉。我不會再將研發視為一項現金投資…

One Nikola Tesla is frankly worth an infinite number of dollars above inch -- you could have like a -- almost an infinite number of credit shares and they would not be able to -- worth 1 Nikola Tesla can do. You can't make it up in volume.

坦白說，一輛尼古拉·特斯拉的價值超過無限美元——你可以擁有——幾乎無限數量的信用股票，但它們的價值也達不到一輛尼古拉·特斯拉的價值。你無法透過數量來彌補。

Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to the next question from George at Canaccord.

好的。非常感謝。讓我們來看看 Canaccord 的喬治提出的下一個問題。

I think you would -- at your Annual Shareholder event, where Elon mentioned that the prices of many of the materials used in your production have started to come off the boil. If that continues, does that give you an opportunity to adjust prices globally after several increases?

我認為你會的——在你的年度股東活動上，埃隆提到，你們生產中使用的許多材料的價格已經開始下降。如果這種情況持續下去，在經過幾次漲價之後，你們是否有機會在全球範圍內調整價格？

Well, we're looking at the prices of -- at prices closely. I mean obviously, anyone can just Google what the price of -- future price of copper or steel is going to be. It's just like one Google Search away. And everyone can see that the commodities, on a go-forward basis, are on -- dropping a lot. But in electric vehicles, things like battery-grade lithium are still crazy expensive. So we've got a mixture of things where prices are dropping and things where prices are increasing.

嗯，我們正在密切關注價格。我的意思是，顯然任何人都可以透過谷歌查詢銅或鋼的未來價格。就像一次 Google 搜尋一樣。每個人都可以看到，從未來來看，大宗商品價格正在大幅下跌。但在電動車中，電池級鋰等材料仍然非常昂貴。因此，我們既看到了價格下跌的情況，也看到了價格上漲的情況。

I would say quarter-over-quarter, steel, aluminum has stopped anywhere between 17% to 20% at the same time on the battery side.

我想說的是，與上一季相比，電池方面的鋼鐵和鋁產量同時下降了 17% 到 20%。

And cost of shipping has come down tremendously. Like last year, the cost of a container on the spot market from Shanghai got as high as $20,000. And now it's $3,500, $3,600. It's that kind of reality. We're seeing deflation in a lot of commodities with a few exceptions as Elon mentioned on batteries.

而且運輸成本也大幅下降。與去年一樣，上海現貨市場上一個貨櫃的價格高達2萬美元。現在是 3,500 美元、3,600 美元。就是這樣的現實。我們看到很多商品都出現了通貨緊縮，但也有少數例外，就像伊隆提到的電池一樣。

Yes. There's more deflation than inflation.

是的。通貨緊縮比通貨膨脹嚴重。

Definitely.

確實。

And again, this is publicly available information. Anyone could just Google it. And I think Cathie Wood at ARK Invest is -- I'm going to make this point over and over again, to the Fed and the Fed is not listening because they're looking at the rearview mirror instead of looking out the front windshield.

再次強調，這是公開的資訊。任何人都可以透過 Google 搜尋。我認為 ARK Invest 的 Cathie Wood 會一遍又一遍地向聯準會強調這一點，但聯準會卻沒有聽取意見，因為他們只看後視鏡，而不是看前擋風玻璃。

Yes. Just to add a little bit more context. So commodity increases were the highest in Q3 that we've seen over the last 2 years. And so when indexes change, it does take time before they fully reflect.

是的。只是為了添加一點背景資訊。因此，第三季大宗商品價格漲幅是過去兩年來最高的。因此，當指數發生變化時，需要一些時間才能完全反映出來。

Yes. There's latency.

是的。存在延遲。

Yes. There's latency.

是的。存在延遲。

That's why I say that the best decisions make sense if you're looking out through the rearview mirror, but not if you look out the front windshield. And windshield, front windshield.

這就是為什麼我說，如果你透過後視鏡向外看，最好的決定是有意義的，但如果你透過前擋風玻璃向外看，則不是。還有擋風玻璃，前擋風玻璃。

Yes. And so what -- at least of what we know so far, so peak on the commodity side in Q3, I say peak, hopefully, it stays the peak, hopefully, it starts to come down. There is a small amount of production that we're seeing going into our Q4 cost structure from steel and aluminum primarily, but it's less than 10% of the total increases we've seen so far.

是的。那麼，至少就我們目前所知，大宗商品價格在第三季達到峰值，我說的是峰值，希望它能保持峰值，希望它能開始下降。我們發現，在第四季度的成本結構中，鋼鐵和鋁的產量佔比很小，但還不到我們迄今為止看到的總增幅的 10%。

So we're optimistic here based upon what we're seeing on the indexes for some of our cost structure. So this will start to come in over time. But I just want to set expectations that there's not some windfall of cost reduction in this space coming in Q4, maybe some as we go into next year.

因此，根據我們在部分成本結構指數中看到的情況，我們對此持樂觀態度。因此這會隨著時間的推移而開始顯現。但我只是想設定一個預期，第四季度該領域的成本不會大幅降低，也許到明年會降低。

Yes. We'll probably see some cost reduction in 2023. I'll be surprised if we did not.

是的。我們可能會在 2023 年看到成本降低。如果沒有，我會感到驚訝。

And just as a follow-up, this is for Elon. With your pending acquisition of Twitter and your stakes in SpaceX and Neuralink and Tesla, how much would the combined companies benefit from operating under a single super structure, if at all, like a Google Alphabet?

作為後續，這是給 Elon 的。鑑於你們即將收購 Twitter，並且持有 SpaceX、Neuralink 和 Tesla 的股份，合併後的公司如果能像 Google Alphabet 那樣在一個超級架構下運營，能獲得多少好處？

It starts clearly on what the overlap is. It's not 0, but it's -- I think we're reaching. I'm not worried about it. I'm not an investor. I'm an engineer and a manufacturing person and a technologist. So I actually work and design and develop products. And that's what I do. So it's not a -- we're not going to have a portfolio, sort of, investments over it.

它清楚地說明了重疊是什麼。它不是 0，但是——我認為我們正在達到。我並不擔心。我不是投資者。我是工程師、製造人員和技術專家。所以我實際上是從事設計和開發產品的工作。這就是我所做的。所以這不是——我們不會對其進行投資組合之類的投資。

So I don't know. I don't see an obvious sort of -- work with some that can get combined under an umbrella, at least right now. So I am excited about the Twitter situation because, obviously, another part incredibly well. And I think it's massive that this sort of languished for a long time, but has an incredible potential.

所以我不知道。至少目前，我還沒有看到明顯的——可以合併到一起的合作。所以我對 Twitter 的情況感到很興奮，因為顯然另一部分錶現非常好。我認為這是一個巨大的進步，雖然這種進步長期處於停滯狀態，但卻具有巨大的潛力。

Although, obviously, myself and the other investors are obviously overpaying for Twitter right now. The long-term potential for Twitter, in my view, is, in order of magnitude, greater than its current value.

不過，顯然，我和其他投資人現在為 Twitter 支付的價格過高了。在我看來，Twitter 的長期潛力比其當前價值大得多。

Let's go to the next question from Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research.

讓我們來看看 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu 提出的下一個問題。

Can you hear me, guys?

你們聽得到我說話嗎，夥伴們？

Yes, we can hear you now.

是的，我們現在可以聽到你的聲音。

Great. I'd love to have another update on 4680, Drew. So last time we talked about it, there were -- it was a question about like scaling up with manufacturing and there were still a few things to get right. Is it fair to say that now you are at scale, and it's just a question of logistics to get bigger? So that's question number one.

偉大的。我很想了解有關 4680 的另一個更新，德魯。所以上次我們討論這個問題時，有一個關於擴大製造規模的問題，還有一些事情需要解決。是否可以這樣說，現在你們已經具備了規模，擴大規模只剩下物流的問題了？這是第一個問題。

And then question number two, on the kind of like innovation and cost reduction and efficiency improvements kind of path that you described at the battery day, where are we today? And how much time is it going to take to deliver all the potential you outlined then?

然後是第二個問題，關於您在電池日上描述的創新、降低成本和提高效率的路徑，我們現在處於什麼位置？那麼，實現您所概述的所有潛力需要多長時間呢？

Well, I'll take the second question first. At Battery Day, we showed a time line out to 2026 for all of the ideas we had proposed and had shared with everybody then.

好的，我先回答第二個問題。在電池日上，我們展示了到 2026 年為止我們提出並與大家分享的所有想法的時間表。

And yes, I'd be surprised. I think we'll do better than that.

是的，我會感到驚訝。我認為我們會做得更好。

Yes. I mean but that's the rough -- just give you all -- it's on that order. It's not like a month. It's not 6 months. It's 6 years. And we are executing on all of those different ideas pretty aggressively in parallel with the OpEx that some people think isn't enough, but we're getting it done.

是的。我的意思是，但這只是粗略的 - 只是給你們所有人 - 這是按照那個順序。這不像是一個月。還不到6個月。已經6年了。我們正在積極地執行所有這些不同的想法，同時也考慮營運支出，有些人認為這還不夠，但我們正在完成它。

I mean I'm not turning down POs.

我的意思是我不會拒絕採購訂單。

Yes, yes, or great talent, like we find someone awesome, we bring them into the company. And people shouldn't believe we are turning people away.

是的，是的，或是偉大的人才，就像我們發現一個很棒的人，我們就把他們帶進公司。人們不應該認為我們正在拒絕人們。

Yes. I mean it's a hot pond but we're solving it. And I think -- we still feel confident that 4680 will be the most competitive battery cell in the world.

是的。我的意思是這是一個熱點問題，但我們正在解決它。我認為——我們仍然相信 4680 將成為世界上最具競爭力的電池。

And it's the whole system around it, right? It's not necessarily a specific form factor. It's the attention to detail on how to bring costs out of the manufacturing process or remove processing steps.

它是圍繞它的整個系統，對嗎？它不一定是特定的形式因素。它關注如何降低製造過程的成本或減少加工步驟的細節。

And all the way down from the mine to the cell.

並從礦井一路下到牢房。

Yes, exactly.

是的，確實如此。

Many steps along the way.

一路走來，走過許多階梯。

Yes. And for those who watched the YouTube videos, like, our on-site cathode facilities coming together, I'm really excited about that, which is a part of the plan that we discussed on Battery Day.

是的。對於那些觀看 YouTube 影片的人來說，例如，我們的現場陰極設施正在整合，我對此感到非常興奮，這是我們在電池日討論的計劃的一部分。

We're -- possibly lithium refinery.

我們——可能是鋰精煉廠。

In Corpus Christi. So we're making -- putting our money where our mouths are and all the various efforts that we discussed on Battery Day.

在科珀斯克里斯蒂。因此，我們正在兌現承諾，並做出我們在電池日討論過的所有努力。

On the technical challenges and the ramp question, which is your first question on 4680, no ramp is ever easy even at the end when you're 80% to the end, like it's still very challenging to get to the end. And that sort of leaning out of yields, the final cycle time to achieve target, you mentioned logistics. It's not something that we're specifically focused on, I guess, but eventually could be a problem as we're talking about hundreds of gigawatt hours at different sites across the United States.

關於技術挑戰和坡道問題，這是您對 4680 的第一個問題，即使在最後完成了 80% 之後，沒有一個坡道是容易的，就像到達終點仍然非常具有挑戰性一樣。您提到了物流，即收益的傾斜、實現目標的最終週期時間。我想，這不是我們特別關注的問題，但最終可能會成為一個問題，因為我們談論的是遍布美國不同地點的數百千兆瓦時的電力。

But I would never sit here and say we have no challenges remaining. But we've made a lot of progress reducing technical risk in many areas. Cycle times have dramatically improved. Yield has dramatically improved. And just walking the line here in Texas, like Martin was walking it yesterday, made some comments to me. You really see the acceleration around you. And we've made a ton of simplifications moving from the Fremont factory to Texas, and it's coming to play in speed of ramp here. And of course, that's on one line of many here in Texas. So it's not like factory-to-factory. It's a multiplication of both simplicity and scale. So yes, we're excited about where it's headed.

但我絕對不會坐在這裡說我們已經沒有挑戰了。但我們在降低許多領域的技術風險方面已經取得了很大進展。週期時間已顯著改善。產量大幅提高。就像馬丁昨天走在德州的這條線上一樣，他對我發表了一些評論。你確實可以看到周圍的加速度。我們在從弗里蒙特工廠遷至德克薩斯州的過程中進行了大量簡化，這對這裡的生產速度產生了積極的影響。當然，這只是德州眾多路線中的一條。所以它不像工廠到工廠那樣。這是簡單性和規模的倍增。是的，我們對它的發展方向感到很興奮。

Yes. And I think, once we are fully integrated, I think we still do see a path to hold roughly $70 kilowatt hour cell -- $70 per kilowatt hour cell before any incentive.

是的。我認為，一旦我們完全整合，我們仍然可以看到一條途徑，即在任何激勵措施之前，將電池價格維持在大約 70 美元/千瓦時——每千瓦時電池 70 美元。

Before incentives.

在激勵之前。

Before incentive. Yes.

激勵之前。是的。

Thank you. And the next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

謝謝。下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉。

Yes. I just wanted to follow up on the 4680 cells and where we are seeing them deployed today. So are those in the Semis that are being delivered on December 1? Are we seeing them in Model Ys that are being produced out of Austin? And is -- do you anticipate 4680 being a gating factor for Cybertruck ramp later this year? And how do you balance the need for 4680 across Semi, Cybertruck and, potentially, Model Y in 2023? And I have a follow-up, please.

是的。我只是想跟進 4680 個單元以及我們今天看到它們的部署。那麼半拖車中的那些車將於 12 月 1 日交付嗎？我們會在奧斯汀生產的 Model Y 上看到它們嗎？您是否預計 4680 將成為今年稍後 Cyber​​truck 上市的限制因素？您如何平衡 Semi、Cyber​​truck 以及 2023 年的 Model Y 對 4680 的需求？我還有一個後續問題，請回答。

Wow. Okay. The Semi doesn't use 4680s. Yes. We are making Model Ys. Some of the Model Ys coming out of Giga Texas are 4680. And I think, Drew, the car you drive around is 4680 Model Y?

哇。好的。 Semi 不使用 4680。是的。我們正在製造 Model Y。 Giga Texas 生產的一些 Model Y 是 4680。 Drew，我想你開的車是 4680 Model Y 吧？

Yes. 10,000 miles. It's pretty good. No problems yet. Yes.

是的。 10,000 英里。非常好。還沒有問題。是的。

Structural pack?

結構包？

Structural pack, yes.

結構包，是的。

So -- and yes, I mean, and our output at 4680 is growing exponentially, so. But it's worth bearing in mind like there are entire highly competitive companies that are very smart that all they do is make battery cells. This is simply 1 segment of Tesla. So it's not a total working block.

所以 — — 是的，我的意思是，我們的 4680 產量正在呈指數級增長。但值得記住的是，許多競爭激烈的公司都非常聰明，他們所做的就是製造電池。這只是特斯拉的一個部分。所以它不是一個完整的工作區塊。

No, there aren't -- there are challenges still ahead that we have not yet surpassed. No doubt.

不，沒有──我們面前還有許多尚未克服的挑戰。無疑。

We don't anticipate this being anything limiting factor for Cybertruck or anything else.

我們預計這不會成為 Cyber​​truck 或其他產品的限制因素。

Okay. And the last question comes from William Stein from Truist.

好的。最後一個問題來自 Truist 的 William Stein。

I guess I'll go at one that I asked last time, Elon, which is your expectation for the likelihood of commercial success in each of the 3 major AI endeavors: FSD sort of as imagined without a driver, the training computer and, of course, Optimus.

我想我還是回答一下我上次問過的問題，埃隆，你對三大人工智慧領域取得商業成功的可能性有何預期：FSD（有點像想像中的沒有駕駛員的）、訓練計算機，當然還有擎天柱。

We'll achieve full self-driving full time probability of that occurring is 100%. And I think we'll -- we're almost there. And then, of course, we've got to prove it to regulators and get the regulatory approvals, which is outside of our control. But anyone who's driving full self-driving cars, has the full self-driving Beta in the car, can see the rate of improvement.

我們將實現完全自動駕駛，這一目標實現的機率是 100%。我認為我們──我們快要成功了。然後，當然，我們必須向監管機構證明這一點並獲得監管部門的批准，而這超出了我們的控制範圍。但任何駕駛全自動駕駛汽車的人，只要車上有全自動駕駛 Beta 版，就可以看到改進的速度。

You can just experience for yourself that we are, in fact, getting there. In fact, we almost are there. And so we're probably achieving that 100%.

您可以親身體驗一下，我們確實正在實現這一目標。事實上，我們幾乎已經到達那裡了。因此我們可能可以 100% 實現這一目標。

The Optimus, probably of that being a successful product, I think, also extremely high, given enough time, 100%.

我認為 Optimus 可能是一款成功的產品，如果時間足夠的話，成功率會非常高，達到 100%。

Dojo, just maybe more of a question around Dojo, like can we be competitive with NVIDIA GPUs even as somebody continues to rapidly evolve their GPUs? So as I said, the jury is out on Dojo. There's a team's taken -- outperformed NVIDIA for neural training. The jury's out, we will probably -- I don't know, next year, if that's true or not. But we think we're probably -- we think it's -- this is -- the architecture of Dojo has the right architecture to win. Yes. It depends on how well we execute in that architecture.

Dojo，也許更多是關於 Dojo 的問題，例如，即使有人繼續快速發展他們的 GPU，我們還能與 NVIDIA GPU 競爭嗎？正如我所說，Dojo 的最終結果尚無定論。有一個團隊在神經訓練方面的表現超越了 NVIDIA。目前還沒有定論，我們可能——我不知道明年這是否屬實。但我們認為我們可能——我們認為——這是——Dojo 的架構具有獲勝的正確架構。是的。這取決於我們在該架構中的執行情況。

Thank you very much. I think, unfortunately, it's all the time that we have today. So thank you so much for your great questions and look forward to talking to you in about 3 months from now. Thank you, and have a good day.

非常感謝。我認為，不幸的是，我們今天所擁有的時間就這麼多了。非常感謝您提出的精彩問題，我們期待在大約三個月後與您交談。謝謝，祝您有美好的一天。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。