特斯拉 (TSLA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's First Quarter 2023 Q&A Webcast. My name is Martin Viecha, VP of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Zachary Kirkhorn and a number of other executives. Our Q1 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

大家下午好，歡迎收看特斯拉 2023 年第一季度問答網絡直播。我的名字是投資者關係副總裁 Martin Viecha，今天加入我的還有 Elon Musk、Zachary Kirkhorn 和其他一些高管。我們的第一季度業績在美國東部時間下午 3:00 左右公佈。我們在與此網絡廣播相同的鏈接上發布了更新平台中的中央時間。

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. (Operator Instructions) But before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些評論基於我們截至今天的預測和期望。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。 （操作員說明）但在我們進入問答環節之前，Elon 有一些開場白。伊隆？

Thank you, Martin. So just a Q1 recap. Model Y became the best-selling vehicle of any kind in Europe and the best-selling non-pickup vehicle in the United States. And this is in spite of a lot of challenges in production and delivery, so it's a huge credit to the Tesla team for achieving these great results. The -- it is worth pointing out that the current macro environment remains uncertain. I don't think I'm telling anyone anything people don't already know, especially with large purchases such as cars.

謝謝你，馬丁。所以只是第一季度的回顧。 Model Y 成為歐洲最暢銷的車型，也是美國最暢銷的非皮卡車型。儘管在生產和交付過程中遇到了很多挑戰，但這是對特斯拉團隊取得這些偉大成果的巨大讚譽。 -- 值得指出的是，當前的宏觀環境仍然存在不確定性。我認為我不會告訴任何人任何人們還不知道的事情，尤其是在購買汽車等大宗商品時。

And while we reduced prices considerably in early Q1, it's worth noting that our operating margin remains among the best in the industry. We've taken a view that pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here versus a lower volume and higher margin. However, we expect our vehicles, over time, will be able to generate significant profit through autonomy. So we do believe we're like laying the groundwork here, and that it's better to ship a large number of cars at a lower margin, and subsequently, harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy. This is an extremely important point.

儘管我們在第一季度初大幅降低了價格，但值得注意的是，我們的營業利潤率仍處於業內最佳水平。我們認為，推動更高的銷量和更大的機隊是正確的選擇，而不是更低的銷量和更高的利潤率。然而，我們預計，隨著時間的推移，我們的車輛將能夠通過自動駕駛產生可觀的利潤。所以我們確實相信我們就像在這裡打下基礎，並且最好以較低的利潤率運送大量汽車，然後在我們完善自主性時在未來收穫利潤。這是非常重要的一點。

Let's see. Regarding the Cybertruck, we continue to build Alpha versions of the Cybertruck on our pilot line for testing purposes. It's a great product, and we're completing the installation of the volume production line at Giga Texas, and we're anticipating having delivery event, a great delivery event probably in Q3.

讓我們來看看。關於 Cybertruck，我們繼續在我們的試驗線上構建 Cybertruck 的 Alpha 版本以進行測試。這是一個很棒的產品，我們正在德克薩斯州 Giga 完成量產線的安裝，我們預計會舉行交付活動，可能在第三季度舉行一次很棒的交付活動。

As with all new products, it will follow an S curve, so production starts out slow and then accelerates. So the Cybertruck is no different. So it's -- there's tremendous amount of demand for the product, obviously. And it is my view, a fantastic product, a hall of famer. But as with all new products, it takes time to get the manufacturing line going. And this is, really, a very radical product. It's not made in the way that other cars are made.

與所有新產品一樣，它將遵循 S 曲線，因此生產開始時緩慢，然後加速。所以 Cybertruck 也不例外。很明顯，對產品的需求量很大。在我看來，這是一款出色的產品，名人堂成員。但與所有新產品一樣，生產線的運轉需要時間。這真的是一個非常激進的產品。它不是以其他汽車的製造方式製造的。

So let's see, with regards to Megapack, we're making great progress. Our energy storage deployment reached nearly 4 gigawatt hours in Q1. This is, by far, the strongest quarter ever. And this growth was achieved thanks to the ongoing ramp at our Megafactory in Lathrop, California. There's still some way to go to reach the full run rates of 40 gigawatt hours per year. And then we additionally announced the start of a new Megafactory in Shanghai. So we're -- as we've expected, the stationary storage growth actually will significantly exceed the vehicle growth.

所以讓我們看看，關於 Megapack，我們正在取得很大進展。我們的儲能部署在第一季度達到了近 4 吉瓦時。到目前為止，這是有史以來最強勁的季度。這種增長的實現要歸功於我們位於加利福尼亞州萊思羅普的 Megafactory 的持續增長。要達到每年 40 吉瓦時的全運行率，還有一段路要走。然後我們還宣佈在上海啟動新的 Megafactory。所以我們——正如我們預期的那樣，固定存儲的增長實際上將大大超過車輛的增長。

Regarding Autopilot and Full Self-Driving. We've now crossed over 150 million miles driven by Full Self-Driving beta, and this number is growing exponentially. We're -- I mean, this is a data advantage that really no one else has. Those who understand AI will understand the importance of data -- of training data and how fundamental that is to achieving an incredible outcome.

關於自動駕駛和全自動駕駛。我們現在已經在全自動駕駛測試版的驅動下行駛了超過 1.5 億英里，而且這個數字還在呈指數級增長。我們 - 我的意思是，這是一個真正沒有其他人擁有的數據優勢。了解 AI 的人將了解數據的重要性——訓練數據的重要性，以及它對於實現令人難以置信的結果的重要性。

So yes, so we're also very focused on improving our neural net training capabilities as is one of the main limiting factors of achieving full autonomy. So we're continuing to simultaneously make significant purchases of NVIDIA GPUs and also putting a lot of effort into Dojo, which we believe has the potential for an order of magnitude improvement in the cost of training. And it also -- Dojo also has the potential to become a sellable service that we would offer to other companies in the same way that Amazon Web Services offers web services, even though it started out as a bookstore. So I really think that, yes, the Dojo potential is very significant.

所以是的，所以我們也非常專注於提高我們的神經網絡訓練能力，這是實現完全自主的主要限制因素之一。因此，我們將繼續同時大量購買 NVIDIA GPU，並在 Dojo 方面投入大量精力，我們相信這有可能將培訓成本提高一個數量級。而且——Dojo 也有可能成為一種可銷售的服務，我們將以與 Amazon Web Services 提供網絡服務相同的方式向其他公司提供這種服務，儘管它最初是一家書店。所以我真的認為，是的，Dojo 的潛力非常大。

In conclusion, we're taking a view that we want to keep making and selling as many cars as we can. Despite this being an uncertain macro environment, this is a good time to increase our lead further, and we'll continue to invest in growth as fast as possible. Once again, I'd like to give a huge thanks to all Tesla employees worldwide who are doing an incredible job again. And yes, super appreciated.

總之，我們認為我們希望繼續製造和銷售盡可能多的汽車。儘管這是一個不確定的宏觀環境，但現在是進一步擴大領先優勢的好時機，我們將繼續盡快投資於增長。再一次，我要非常感謝全球所有特斯拉員工，他們再次做出了令人難以置信的工作。是的，非常感謝。

Thank you very much. And Zach has some remarks as well.

非常感謝。 Zach 也有一些評論。

Thanks, Martin. I want to start by congratulating the Tesla team for record vehicle production and deliveries. And I also want to congratulate our energy storage team for record volumes as well.

謝謝，馬丁。首先，我想祝賀特斯拉團隊創下汽車生產和交付記錄。我還要祝賀我們的儲能團隊也創造了創紀錄的產量。

There are 3 main points I want to make. First, automotive gross margin and operating margin reduced sequentially. But as Elon mentioned, these remain at healthy levels. In particular, automotive gross margin was impacted by a few factors since our discussion on the last earnings call, which include additional action taken in the second half of the quarter to improve vehicle pricing and onetime items, most notably, warranty adjustments on older S and X vehicles as well as increased deferred revenue for certain Autopilot features as we transition technologies.

我想提出 3 個要點。首先，汽車毛利率和營業利潤率環比下降。但正如 Elon 所提到的，這些仍處於健康水平。特別是，自我們討論上次財報電話會議以來，汽車毛利率受到一些因素的影響，其中包括本季度下半年為改善車輛定價和一次性項目採取的額外行動，最顯著的是對舊款 S 和X 車輛以及隨著我們過渡技術而增加某些自動駕駛功能的遞延收入。

Progress on vehicle cost reduction continued in Q1 with meaningful improvements on logistics and the beginnings of some commodity cost reductions starting to be realized. Per unit cost for Austin and Berlin improved as well, driven by record volumes. However, these factories still provide a margin headwind and will likely continue to do so until after we reach and stabilize at our intended volumes.

第一季度在降低車輛成本方面繼續取得進展，對物流進行了有意義的改進，並且開始實現一些商品成本的降低。在創紀錄的銷量推動下，奧斯汀和柏林的單位成本也有所改善。然而，這些工廠仍然存在利潤逆風，並且可能會繼續這樣做，直到我們達到並穩定在我們的預期產量之後。

Note that Q1 was our third quarter in our multi-quarter plan to move to a more regionally balanced mix of build and deliveries. As I've mentioned previously, this results in lower deliveries and production within a quarter due to a higher volume of cars in transit at the end of the quarter and has an associated impact on quarter-ending free cash flows. This was particularly prevalent in Q1 for S and X as we begin exporting cars for international deliveries.

請注意，第一季度是我們的多季度計劃中的第三季度，該計劃旨在轉向區域更平衡的構建和交付組合。正如我之前提到的，由於本季度末運輸中的汽車數量增加，這導致一個季度內的交付和生產減少，並對季度末的自由現金流產生相關影響。當我們開始為國際交付出口汽車時，這在第一季度的 S 和 X 中尤為普遍。

Second, our storage business is starting to take shape, and this is exciting to see after many years of investment and focus. This business is growing as a percentage of the businesses of the company's revenue and reached its highest level yet in Q1, driven by an increasing rate of deliveries for our Megapack products. We are also making progress on storage profitability, generating our highest gross profit yet in the quarter.

第二，我們的存儲業務初具規模，經過多年的投入和專注，這是令人興奮的。在我們的 Megapack 產品交付率不斷提高的推動下，該業務占公司收入的百分比正在增長，並在第一季度達到了迄今為止的最高水平。我們在存儲盈利能力方面也取得了進展，在本季度創造了迄今為止最高的毛利潤。

Third, I want to reiterate the philosophy by which we're operating the business this year. Our approach is to grow volumes as quickly as possible in both our vehicle and energy businesses. We plan to continue to invest heavily into our future plans, which include the Cybertruck next-generation platform, in-house cell production, energy storage business and our Autonomy and AI-enabled products. And we plan to do this while keeping the business financially healthy and industry-leading. To accomplish this, we need to remain focused on cost efficiency and working capital, and in particular, unwinding the strategic inventory buildup left over from the pandemic.

第三，我想重申我們今年經營業務的理念。我們的方法是在我們的汽車和能源業務中盡快增加銷量。我們計劃繼續大力投資於我們的未來計劃，其中包括 Cybertruck 下一代平台、內部電池生產、儲能業務以及我們的 Autonomy 和支持 AI 的產品。我們計劃在保持業務財務健康和行業領先的同時做到這一點。為實現這一目標，我們需要繼續關注成本效率和營運資金，尤其是消除大流行病遺留下來的戰略庫存積壓。

I want to conclude by thanking the Tesla team again as well as thanking our suppliers and our customers.

最後，我想再次感謝特斯拉團隊以及我們的供應商和客戶。

Thank you very much. And let's go to investor questions on say.com. The first one is what is the process to make auto pricing adjustments? What variables do you consider? How frequently do you review pricing?

非常感謝。讓我們在 say.com 上回答投資者問題。第一個是進行自動定價調整的過程是什麼？你考慮了哪些變量？您多久檢查一次定價？

Do you want to take that, Elon, or do you want me to take that?

Elon，你要拿那個，還是要我拿那個？

My apologies. Sorry, I was on mute. Yes, I think this is not something that we can really talk about. It's just -- we do our best to evaluate the production output, macroeconomic conditions, and we make a decision. But it's -- yes, unless there's something you'd like to add, Zach.

我很抱歉。對不起，我是靜音的。是的，我認為這不是我們真正可以談論的事情。只是——我們盡最大努力評估產量、宏觀經濟狀況，然後我們做出決定。但它是——是的，除非你想添加一些東西，Zach。

I think that's right. I mean, as a team, we review where we stand globally on a weekly basis and certainly, I can't get into the details of the reasons why certain decisions are made. But it is something that's very actively managed by a subset of the leadership team.

我認為這是對的。我的意思是，作為一個團隊，我們每週都會審查我們在全球範圍內的立場，當然，我無法詳細說明做出某些決定的原因。但這是由領導團隊的一個子集非常積極地管理的事情。

Thank you. The second question is, do you still believe Tesla Energy will be bigger than auto? And when will you provide more formal guidance on Megapack and overall Tesla Energy?

謝謝。第二個問題，你還相信特斯拉能源會比汽車更大嗎？您何時會提供有關 Megapack 和整個 Tesla Energy 的更正式指導？

Yes, I should just clarify, like, bigger than auto from the standpoint of, like, total gigawatt hours deployed. So it's possible automotive revenue may be higher, but gigawatt hours, I think, will be probably higher with stationary storage. If you just look at the -- what's needed to transition the world to a sustainable energy economy, there is more stationary energy storage needed than there is mobile energy storage. So -- and we are seeing growth of our stationary storage well in excess of automotive, so that is in line with expectations.

是的，我應該從部署的總千兆瓦時的角度澄清，比如，比汽車更大。因此，汽車收入可能會更高，但我認為千兆瓦時的固定存儲可能會更高。如果你只看一下 - 將世界轉變為可持續能源經濟需要什麼，需要的固定儲能比移動儲能更多。所以 - 我們看到我們的固定存儲增長遠遠超過汽車，所以這符合預期。

Yes. And on the guidance part of the question, and maybe, Martin, we can combine this with the next question, which is on guidance for margins, just have a single comment there. I think we are -- we will get to the point where we, as a company, provide guidance on the storage business.

是的。關於問題的指導部分，也許，馬丁，我們可以將其與下一個關於利潤率指導的問題結合起來，只在那裡發表評論。我認為我們 - 我們將達到我們作為一家公司提供存儲業務指導的地步。

I say storage as a combination of both the Megapack business and the Powerwall business. Relative to total revenues of the company, it's still fairly small. And the business has a lot of volatility currently, both in terms of volumes as well as financials, just given the small volumes and kind of diversification of the customer pool there.

我說存儲是 Megapack 業務和 Powerwall 業務的結合。相對於公司的總收入，它仍然相當小。考慮到那裡的客戶群數量少且多樣化，該業務目前在數量和財務方面都存在很大的波動性。

But as this business grows and smooths out, I don't think we're that far away from it. I think including these volumes on our day 2 production and deliveries release is something that we'll start doing and then we can talk more formally as a business about our expectations over the coming year. I think it'll be a few more quarters before we get there.

但隨著這項業務的發展和平穩，我認為我們離它不遠了。我認為在我們第 2 天的生產和交付發布中包括這些數量是我們將開始做的事情，然後我們可以作為一個企業更正式地討論我們對來年的期望。我認為我們還需要幾個季度才能到達那裡。

Thank you. And the next question, as you said, was already answered, so let's go to the battery question.

謝謝。下一個問題，正如你所說，已經回答了，所以讓我們轉到電池問題。

Sorry. Just one other thing I wanted to mention on margin. While we're not providing specific guidance there, I mean, just to set expectations of where we think this business will go in terms of margins, probably generally in the ballpark of what we've seen historically on the vehicle business. We generally look to mid-20% gross margins for any program that we launch. And so we're not there yet on this business, but that's what we're working towards.

對不起。我想在保證金上提到另一件事。雖然我們沒有在那裡提供具體的指導，但我的意思是，只是為了設定我們認為該業務在利潤率方面的預期，可能通常處於我們在汽車業務歷史上所見的範圍內。對於我們推出的任何項目，我們通常希望獲得 20% 左右的毛利率。因此，我們還沒有開展這項業務，但這就是我們正在努力的方向。

We're hopeful to get there later this year, but that's not a promise. That's an aspiration.

我們希望在今年晚些時候到達那裡，但這不是一個承諾。那是一個願望。

Thank you. The next question is, how well are 4680 cells meeting the expectations described on the Battery Day? How long will it be until the cells meet those goals? Drew?

謝謝。下一個問題是，4680 電池是否符合電池日描述的預期？細胞達到這些目標需要多長時間？德魯？

Yes. So on Battery Day, we established a cost-down roadmap through 2026 across 5 areas of effort. There was the cell design we discussed, anode and cathode materials, the structural pack concept and the cell factory itself, and we've been making progress across all of these aspects since then.

是的。因此，在電池日，我們制定了到 2026 年的 5 個工作領域的成本降低路線圖。我們討論了電池設計、陽極和陰極材料、結構包概念和電池工廠本身，從那時起我們在所有這些方面都取得了進展。

For the cell factory, the Texas 4680 factory, we are partway through building and commissioning and selling and operating, will be 70% lower CapEx per gigawatt hour than typical cell factories when fully ramped, in line with what we described on Battery Day. And we're continuing to further pursue densification and investment reduction opportunities in future factory build-outs like in Nevada. On the cell design, we're in production with not only the first generation tabless cell we unveiled in Battery Day, but a second more manufacturer version in Texas today.

對於電池工廠，德克薩斯州 4680 工廠，我們正在建設、調試、銷售和運營中，每千兆瓦時的資本支出將比典型的電池工廠低 70%，這與我們在電池日上描述的一致。我們將繼續在內華達州等未來工廠擴建中進一步尋求緻密化和減少投資的機會。在電池設計方面，我們不僅在生產我們在電池日推出的第一代無表電池，而且今天在德克薩斯州生產了第二個製造商版本。

On the cathode materials side, we have a number of activities underway per the Battery Day roadmap. For lithium, our Corpus Christi Lithium refinery breaks ground this May. Our goal is to start commissioning portions of the facility before the end of the year. The refinery uses the sulfate-free spodumene refining process with reduced process costs, no acid or caustic reagents, lower embodied energy. It actually produces a beneficial byproduct that can be repurposed in construction materials. We discussed all of these concepts on Battery Day.

在正極材料方面，我們根據電池日路線圖開展了多項活動。對於鋰，我們的 Corpus Christi 鋰精煉廠於今年 5 月破土動工。我們的目標是在年底前開始調試部分設施。該煉油廠採用無硫酸鹽鋰輝石精煉工藝，工藝成本低，無酸鹼試劑，隱含能量低。它實際上產生了一種有益的副產品，可以重新用於建築材料。我們在電池日討論了所有這些概念。

Same with cathode precursor, we've successfully demonstrated lower process cost, zero-waste water precursor process that we described on Battery Day at both lab and pilot scale and are in the detailed design phase for incorporating this technology into the front end of our Austin cathode facility.

與陰極前驅體一樣，我們已經成功展示了我們在電池日上描述的實驗室和中試規模的更低工藝成本、零廢水前驅體工藝，並且正處於詳細設計階段，以便將該技術整合到我們奧斯汀的前端陰極設施。

On cathode production, we are 50% equipment and 75% utilities installed at our new cathode building in Austin with our goal to begin dry and wet commissioning this quarter and next quarter with a target to produce first material before the end of the year.

在陰極生產方面，我們在奧斯汀的新陰極大樓安裝了 50% 的設備和 75% 的公用設施，我們的目標是在本季度和下季度開始乾濕調試，目標是在年底前生產出第一種材料。

Structural pack, we saw big improvements with pack manufacturing with the 4680 cell and the structural pack concept, 50% lower CapEx and 66% smaller factory for the same output in gigawatt hours per year. We do believe structural as a concept is a good one. It's simpler. We'll continue to structurally load the cells and use the pack as the floor of the vehicle while iterating the design to closer to B-level execution of this A-level architecture in future programs.

結構包，我們看到使用 4680 電池和結構包概念的包製造有了很大的改進，資本支出降低了 50%，工廠規模縮小了 66%，而每年的產量是千兆瓦時。我們確實相信結構作為一個概念是一個很好的概念。它更簡單。我們將繼續在結構上加載電池並將電池組用作車輛的底板，同時迭代設計以在未來的程序中更接近此 A 級架構的 B 級執行。

And zooming out for the 4680 team, Q1 was all about cost and quality. We made significant improvements in both areas. Texas production increased 50% quarter-over-quarter through yields, increased 12%; in Kato peak rate increased by 20%; and through yields improved by 20%. Altogether, the team accomplished a 25% reduction in COGS over the quarter, and we are on track to achieve steady-state cost targets over the next 12 months. And going forward for the rest of the year, the priority one is yield in cost for the 4680 program as we steadily ramp production ahead of Cybertruck next year.

縮小到 4680 團隊，Q1 完全是關於成本和質量的。我們在這兩個方面都做出了重大改進。得克薩斯州產量環比增長 50%，單產增長 12%；加藤峰率增加20%；產量提高了 20%。總而言之，該團隊在本季度實現了 COGS 降低 25%，我們有望在未來 12 個月內實現穩態成本目標。在今年餘下的時間裡，首要任務是 4680 計劃的成本收益，因為我們會在明年的 Cybertruck 之前穩步提高產量。

Thank you very much. The next question is, what do you anticipate 2023 automotive gross margins ex credits will be at the company's current pricing levels?

非常感謝。下一個問題是，您預計 2023 年汽車扣除信用額度後的毛利率將達到公司當前的定價水平？

Yes, I can start off on this one. This is a difficult environment to make a projection like this. There's a lot of macro uncertainty. There are also headwinds and tailwinds. And this is basically a question, I think, that's asking about viewpoint and where costs will go. And within costs, there's a set of costs in which we do control the set of costs in which we're kind of subject to what's going on in the macro world.

是的，我可以從這個開始。這是一個很難進行這樣的預測的環境。有很多宏觀不確定性。還有逆風和順風。我認為這基本上是一個問題，詢問觀點和成本將流向何處。在成本中，有一組成本我們確實控制了一組成本，在這些成本中我們有點受宏觀世界正在發生的事情的影響。

Within the bucket of things we control, the most of the cost down that we're working on is around ramping our Austin factory, stabilizing that and then doing the cost optimization work once we get to our intended volumes there. And a part of the cost journey in the Austin factory is, as Drew mentioned, the 4680 cells, which is an input into our Austin COGS. And so as the 4680 program improves over the course of the year on cost, as Drew mentioned, and then the noncell portion of the factory improves, we see a pretty good trajectory in the Austin facility.

在我們控制的事情範圍內，我們正在努力降低成本的大部分是圍繞我們的奧斯汀工廠，穩定它，然後在我們達到那裡的預期產量後進行成本優化工作。正如 Drew 所提到的，奧斯汀工廠成本之旅的一部分是 4680 電池，這是我們奧斯汀 COGS 的輸入。因此，正如 Drew 提到的那樣，隨著 4680 計劃在一年中成本的提高，然後工廠的非電池部分得到改善，我們在奧斯汀工廠看到了一個非常好的軌跡。

A similar story exists in the Berlin factory. It does not have 4680 as an input, but for that factory, the journey to complete localization is still ongoing. And so over the course of this year, as volume increases, more localization occurs, we do see a good path to cost reduction in the Berlin factory as well. In existing factories, too, we talk about this on every call, so I don't need to rehash it, but the expectation is that every existing factory improves all of their key metrics, and we continue to see the progress there.

柏林工廠也有類似的故事。它沒有 4680 作為輸入，但對於那家工廠來說，完成本地化的旅程仍在進行中。因此，在今年的過程中，隨著產量的增加，更多的本地化發生，我們也確實看到了柏林工廠降低成本的好方法。在現有工廠中，我們也會在每次通話中討論這個問題，所以我不需要重複它，但期望每個現有工廠都會改進其所有關鍵指標，並且我們會繼續看到那裡的進展。

There's also a handful of other costs in which we have influence, but the philosophy here is that we're aggressively going across every cost bucket that we can. Within the world that we don't control, the 2 major costs there being logistics, which fortunately is moving in our favor, and I think our supply chain team has done a great job, both on logistics optimization and taking advantage of reduced spot rates where they can, so thank you to our supply chain team.

還有一些我們可以影響的其他成本，但這裡的理念是我們正在積極地跨越我們可以的每一個成本範圍。在我們無法控制的世界中，兩大成本是物流，幸運的是，這對我們有利，我認為我們的供應鏈團隊在物流優化和利用降低的現貨價格方面做得很好他們可以的地方，所以感謝我們的供應鏈團隊。

And then there's the commodities world, which has been a huge pinch point in our cost structure over the last, say, 2 years or so, and we're still kind of at the maximum of pain for commodities in our cost structure. It kind of maxed down in the second half of last year. We did start to see, in Q1, a little bit of improvement. We think there'll be a little bit more improvement in Q2, but...

然後是大宗商品世界，在過去的兩年左右的時間裡，它一直是我們成本結構中的一個巨大的夾點，我們的成本結構中的大宗商品仍然處於最大的痛苦之中。它在去年下半年達到了最低點。在第一季度，我們確實開始看到一些改善。我們認為第二季度會有更多改善，但是......

Lithium has dropped a lot. It's worth mentioning that the price of lithium has dropped significantly.

鋰下降了很多。值得一提的是，鋰價大幅下跌。

Yes. And that's the piece that we expect to see more impact from in Q2. And generally, as a company, we do expect commodity prices to come down and have a more meaningful impact in the second half of the year.

是的。這就是我們希望在第二季度看到更多影響的部分。一般來說，作為一家公司，我們確實預計大宗商品價格會下降，並在今年下半年產生更有意義的影響。

Yes.

是的。

So this is our approach. How that nets out, I mean, just is a lot of risk, and we'll have to see how the year progresses.

所以這是我們的方法。我的意思是，這將如何解決，風險很大，我們必須看看今年的進展情況。

Thank you. The next question is, how has global order intake tracked since the most recent round of price cuts?

謝謝。下一個問題是，自最近一輪降價以來，全球訂單量如何變化？

I think the overall thing we can say is that orders are in excess of production.

我認為我們可以說的總體情況是訂單超過了生產。

Thank you. And maybe the last question from investors, can you give updated specs and pricing for Cybertruck and any new features that will make it to production?

謝謝。也許投資者的最後一個問題是，您能否提供 Cybertruck 的更新規格和定價以及將投入生產的任何新功能？

Well, I think we'll save that for the Cybertruck handover, which will hopefully be around the end of Q3 this year. And one thing I am confident of saying is that it's an incredible product, it's a hall of famer, I think. And a product like this only comes once in a long while, so you will not be disappointed at all. It's amazing.

好吧，我想我們會把它留到 Cybertruck 交接時，希望能在今年第三季度末左右完成。我有信心說的一件事是，它是一款令人難以置信的產品，我認為它是名人堂成員。而且像這樣的產品在很長一段時間內只會出現一次，因此您根本不會失望。太奇妙了。

Great. Thank you very much. And let's go to analyst questions. We'll start with Alex Potter from Piper Sandler.

偉大的。非常感謝。讓我們來看看分析師的問題。我們將從 Piper Sandler 的 Alex Potter 開始。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Perfect. So first question was on Lathrop. Obviously, that's -- it's great to see the growth there. Just wondering when you think that facility might be closer to full utilization? Are you just sort of deliberately working your way up the S curve there? Demand, obviously, isn't the limitation. So what are what are the steps, I guess, to unlocking full utilization there?

好的。完美的。所以第一個問題是關於萊斯羅普的。顯然，那是——很高興看到那裡的增長。只是想知道您認為該設施什麼時候可能更接近充分利用？你是不是故意沿著 S 曲線往上爬？顯然，需求不是限制。那麼，我猜想，解鎖那裡的充分利用的步驟是什麼？

Sure. There are some classic factory ramp aspects of what's going on in Lathrop. We actually had 2 phases of the CapEx there, replaced some of the general assembly parts of the facility. But in addition, we also have ramps with our suppliers that we are following, so both on the sell side and on the power electronics side. And we will see that unlock in the latter half of this year with -- as well as those inputs. So the overall facility was phased with the second phase of CapEx coming up on towards the end of this year.

當然。萊斯羅普正在發生的事情有一些經典的工廠坡道方面。實際上，我們在那裡有兩個階段的資本支出，更換了設施的一些總裝部件。但除此之外，我們還與我們正在跟踪的供應商進行了合作，因此無論是在銷售方面還是在電力電子方面。我們將在今年下半年看到這一解鎖——以及這些投入。因此，整個設施分階段進行，資本支出的第二階段將在今年年底進行。

Okay. Great. And then I guess my second question is on your ability to serve other markets out of Shanghai. Obviously, the facility in Berlin should be opening up your ability to, I guess, allocate more vehicles to Southeast Asia, Australia, other areas. I'm just wondering what other regions do you think you're maybe not yet serving effectively. What are your time lines for addressing some of those gaps in your regional exposure?

好的。偉大的。然後我想我的第二個問題是關於你們服務上海以外其他市場的能力。顯然，柏林的設施應該開放你的能力，我想，分配更多的車輛到東南亞、澳大利亞和其他地區。我只是想知道您認為您可能還沒有有效地服務於哪些其他地區。您解決區域風險中的一些差距的時間表是什麼？

Yes. That's a good question, because there are still many parts of the world that we do not yet serve with respect to vehicles especially. So we do expect to open up new markets around the world. And while those markets are not necessarily individually gigantic, they do add up a whole bunch of markets. They do collectively sum up to something significant. So it's high time that Tesla offer these cars to the rest of the world, and that is something that we intend to do.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，因為世界上還有很多地方我們還沒有提供服務，尤其是在車輛方面。所以我們確實希望在世界各地開闢新的市場。雖然這些市場不一定單獨巨大，但它們加起來確實是一大堆市場。他們確實共同總結了一些重要的事情。所以現在是特斯拉向世界其他地區提供這些汽車的時候了，這也是我們打算做的事情。

Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to the next analyst, George from Canaccord.

好的。非常感謝。讓我們轉到下一位分析師，來自 Canaccord 的喬治。

I was wondering, first, if you could discuss your FSD take rates and whether you've seen any significant positive or negative change there? And also, given that you've reduced the prices for your vehicles, do you think you need to do that for FSD as well?

我想知道，首先，您是否可以討論您的 FSD 採納率，以及您是否看到那裡有任何重大的積極或消極變化？而且，鑑於您已經降低了車輛的價格，您認為您是否也需要為 FSD 這樣做？

Well, to kind of answer the details on the FSD take rate, but the -- it's a tricky pricing question because the value of a car that is autonomous is enormous. So in a way, the price right now is an option value on an autonomous vehicle. And that value is -- will ultimately be very significant. And it's really -- yes, I mean, for those that are using the FSD beta, I mean, you can see the improvements are really quite dramatic. There'll be a little bit of 2 steps forward, 1 step back between releases for those trying the beta. But the trend is very clearly towards full self-driving, towards full autonomy. And I hesitate to say this, but I think we'll do it this year. So that's what it looks like, yes.

好吧，有點回答有關 FSD 採取率的細節，但是 - 這是一個棘手的定價問題，因為自動駕駛汽車的價值是巨大的。所以在某種程度上，現在的價格是自動駕駛汽車的期權價值。這個價值是 - 最終將非常重要。這真的——是的，我的意思是，對於那些使用 FSD 測試版的人來說，我的意思是，你可以看到這些改進確實非常顯著。對於那些嘗試測試版的人來說，在發布之間會有一點前進 2 步，後退 1 步。但趨勢非常明顯，是朝著完全自動駕駛、完全自主的方向發展。我猶豫要不要這麼說，但我想我們今年會這樣做。這就是它的樣子，是的。

Maybe on the dramatic change we've seen in EV-related commodity prices. Do you think it's a reflection of any recent overcapacity in mining and refining? Or is that sort of a coincident indicator on global EV demand? And how do you expect those prices to kind of track over the next several quarters?

也許是因為我們在電動汽車相關商品價格中看到的巨大變化。您認為這是否反映了近期採礦和精煉產能過剩？或者這是全球電動汽車需求的同步指標？您如何看待這些價格在接下來的幾個季度內的走勢？

Man, I wish I had a crystal ball to answer your question. I don't know if we can provide a question (sic) [an answer] that would -- with -- that would have any value really. I think we're in uncertain times. And if somebody got a crystal ball they can lend me, I'd really like to borrow it. But these are uncertain times.

伙計，我希望我有一個水晶球來回答你的問題。我不知道我們是否可以提供一個問題（原文如此）[一個答案]，這個問題真的有任何價值。我認為我們正處於不確定的時期。如果有人有水晶球，他們可以藉給我，我真的很想藉。但現在是不確定的時期。

My guess is this -- it's economic stormy weather for about a year or so. And then if we hold roughly 12 months and then -- but this is my guess. It's just pure speculation. Stormy weather for about 12 months and then, provided there are no major geopolitical wildcards that show up, that things start getting sunny around spring next year.

我的猜測是——這是大約一年左右的經濟風暴天氣。然後如果我們持有大約 12 個月然後 - 但這是我的猜測。這只是純粹的猜測。大約 12 個月的暴風雨天氣，然後，如果沒有出現重大的地緣政治通配符，明年春天前後天氣就會開始轉晴。

The only thing I would say on the, like, EV materials markets. They're not all super liquid and some of them, for example, like, less than -- like, single-digit percentage of the market is actually traded on the spot market. And not only are they not super liquid, there's not -- like, storage isn't particularly facile for all of materials. So, like, small mismatches in supply and demand drive, like large price swings, not really -- real price swings, but just like temporarily large price swings. So it's hard to read into those price wings. I don't know, Karn, if you want to add anything.

我唯一要說的是電動汽車材料市場。它們並非都具有超強流動性，例如，其中一些，例如，不到 - 市場的個位數百分比實際上是在現貨市場上交易的。它們不僅不是超級液體，而且也不是——比如，所有材料的儲存都不是特別容易。所以，就像供需驅動的小不匹配，就像價格的大幅波動，不是真正的——真正的價格波動，而是暫時的價格大幅波動。所以很難讀懂那些價格的翅膀。我不知道，卡恩，如果你想補充什麼。

Yes. Well, this is Karn, by the way. We are seeing, as Elon mentioned, quite a bit of softening in the lithium carbonate market. This was -- 6 months ago, we were trading at like $85,000 a ton, and today's spot price is about 26%. So there's been a dramatic decrease in that. Of course, we were able to take advantage of low lithium pricing earlier on with fixed-price contracts. And we find that this is going to be another opportunity -- opportune moment to basically extend that into the later half of the decade.

是的。嗯，順便說一句，這是卡恩。正如 Elon 所提到的，我們看到碳酸鋰市場出現了相當多的疲軟。 6 個月前，我們的交易價格約為每噸 85,000 美元，而今天的現貨價格約為 26%。所以這方面出現了戲劇性的下降。當然，我們能夠通過固定價格合同更早地利用低鋰定價。我們發現這將是另一個機會——將其基本上延伸到本世紀後半葉的合適時機。

But we -- at the quantities we're procuring, we're not as impacted by the spot market because we have all those contracts in place, and we're just going to be going and doing more of that. The other thing that's happening is because of the price spike. A lot of the companies that are in this business are becoming more ambitious about finding more upstream resources and exploring locations in Africa as well as South America. So that's also helping the macro situation with pricing.

但是我們——按照我們採購的數量，我們並沒有受到現貨市場的影響，因為我們已經簽訂了所有這些合同，而且我們將繼續做更多的事情。發生的另一件事是因為價格飆升。許多從事這項業務的公司正變得更加雄心勃勃，希望在非洲和南美尋找更多上游資源和勘探地點。因此，這也有助於定價的宏觀形勢。

Yes. But just on the lithium front, to emphasize, the choke point is more -- much more on refining capacity than it is on mining. Lithium is actually -- is very common throughout the world, including in the U.S. and, really, it's just a very common element on earth. It's lithium. So it's much more a question of where is the refining capacity and can the refining capacity keep up. That's really what matters more than where is the lithium ore. It's everywhere basically.

是的。但要強調的是，僅在鋰方面，瓶頸就更多——煉油能力比採礦能力要多得多。鋰實際上 - 在世界各地非常普遍，包括在美國，而且，實際上，它只是地球上非常普遍的元素。是鋰。因此，更多的是煉油能力在哪里以及煉油能力能否跟上的問題。這真的比鋰礦石在哪裡更重要。基本上無處不在。

I think that same question also extends to refining of the cathode, and to some degree, refining of the anode. And this is why we -- at Tesla, we're building our lithium refinery capability at Corpus Christi and our cathode refinery outside Austin.

我認為同樣的問題也延伸到陰極的精煉，並在某種程度上延伸到陽極的精煉。這就是為什麼我們 - 在特斯拉，我們正在科珀斯克里斯蒂和奧斯汀以外的陰極精煉廠建設我們的鋰精煉廠。

It's worth noting, like, I hope other companies do the same thing. We will have, by far, the most lithium refining capability and the most cathode refining capability in North America, I think, probably more than everyone else combined by a lot. So can other people please do those work? That would be great. We're begging you. We don't want to do it. Can someone please? Like, instead of making a picture-sharing app, please, we're -- try in lithium, mining and refining, heavy industry, come on.

值得注意的是，我希望其他公司也這樣做。到目前為止，我們將擁有北美最多的鋰精煉能力和最多的陰極精煉能力，我認為，可能比其他所有人的總和還要多。那麼其他人可以做這些工作嗎？那太好了。我們求你了我們不想這樣做。有人可以嗎？就像，我們不是製作圖片共享應用程序，而是 - 嘗試鋰、採礦和精煉、重工業，來吧。

It's fun. It's actually fun.

好有趣。這實際上很有趣。

Yes, yes. Exactly. For real.

是的是的。確切地。真正的。

We're a customer. We're here, ready to buy.

我們是客戶。我們到了，準備購買。

Yes. That's right. I just want to emphasize, Tesla is not doing this because we want to do it. We have a lot of fish to fry, obviously, but we're doing it because others aren't doing it, and we wish others would do it.

是的。這是正確的。我只是想強調，特斯拉這樣做並不是因為我們想這樣做。顯然，我們有很多魚要炸，但我們這樣做是因為其他人沒有這樣做，我們希望其他人也這樣做。

Awesome. Thank you very much. Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

驚人的。非常感謝。德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾羅斯納。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can. Yes.

我們可以。是的。

Maybe a first question for Elon, on your pricing strategy. So if I understand your message, you're saying Tesla feels it's worth maximizing the volume, increasing the size of the fleet as fast as you can because you'll be able to monetize this over the life cycle of the vehicle. Could you be a little bit more specific around ways you would be able to monetize sort of, like, this existing fleet in the future? Obviously, I think Autonomous seems to be a big piece of it, but my understanding was that robotaxi would probably be for the next-generation vehicle, not the existing one? So I guess in which ways would you monetize it?

關於您的定價策略，也許是 Elon 的第一個問題。因此，如果我理解你的意思，你是說特斯拉認為值得最大化數量，盡快增加車隊規模，因為你將能夠在車輛的整個生命週期內將其貨幣化。您能否更具體地說明您能夠在未來通過現有機隊獲利的方式？顯然，我認為自動駕駛似乎佔了很大一部分，但我的理解是，robotaxi 可能會用於下一代車輛，而不是現有車輛？所以我想你會通過哪些方式將其貨幣化？

Sorry, the robotaxi terminology can be a bit confusing, because that's sort of like a generic term for our next-generation vehicle. And we obviously are working on next-generation vehicle. That's going to be very compelling. This is just not the time to talk about it in details, the product. So we internally call it robotaxi.

抱歉，robotaxi 術語可能有點令人困惑，因為這有點像我們下一代車輛的通用術語。我們顯然正在研究下一代汽車。這將非常引人注目。現在不是詳細討論產品的時候。所以我們內部稱之為 robotaxi。

But really, all of the vehicles that have Hardware 3, which is the vast majority of our fleet, we believe will achieve full autonomy. So there will be a -- like, a Model 3 or Model Y would be a robotaxi, a robotic taxi. So yes, that's -- to the best of my knowledge that -- we believe the current hardware can achieve full autonomy.

但實際上，我們相信所有擁有 Hardware 3 的車輛，也就是我們車隊中的絕大多數，都將實現完全自主。所以會有——比如，Model 3 或 Model Y 是機器人出租車，機器人出租車。所以是的，據我所知，我們相信當前的硬件可以實現完全自主。

Understood. And then maybe a question for Zach. Back on the automotive gross margins. So I think, I guess, a few months ago, even after major price cuts, you felt pretty strongly that 20% automotive gross margin was still probably a reasonable floor.

明白了。然後也許有一個問題要問扎克。回到汽車毛利率。所以我想，我想，幾個月前，即使在大幅降價之後，你仍然非常強烈地認為 20% 的汽車毛利率可能仍然是一個合理的底線。

Obviously, the macro has gone worse and additional price cuts have happened. Is there anything else that has changed in terms of the outlook? Is it just the macro deteriorating? Is it the competitive landscape? Anything else that's sort of, like, makes you think differently around the full year? And is there a way, therefore, to frame a floor?

顯然，宏觀經濟已經變得更糟，並且出現了額外的降價。在前景方面還有什麼其他變化嗎？僅僅是宏觀經濟惡化嗎？是競爭格局嗎？還有什麼能讓你在一整年裡有不同的想法？因此，有沒有一種方法可以構建地板？

Yes. About half of the miss against that previous conversation last quarter is attributed to adjustments we made in pricing in the second half of the quarter. I mean, I guess you could argue that, that lowers the floor in a sense. We've also made pricing adjustments so far this quarter. So that brings it down further.

是的。與上一季度之前的談話相比，大約一半的失誤歸因於我們在本季度下半年對定價進行的調整。我的意思是，我想你可能會爭辯說，這在某種意義上降低了底線。本季度到目前為止，我們還進行了定價調整。所以這進一步降低了它。

About the other half of the miss in Q1 was attributed to things that are nonrecurring. So I mentioned these in my opening remarks. It's a warranty adjustment for cars that were previously produced but not part of the pedigree of cars we're building now and some autopilot-related deferrals as we make some technology changes here that this deferral should get recognized once some of the software catches up. So those 2 things are nonrepeating. So hopefully, that helps answer your question.

第一季度的另一半失誤歸因於非經常性事件。所以我在開場白中提到了這些。這是對以前生產但不屬於我們現在正在製造的汽車譜系的汽車的保修調整，以及一些與自動駕駛相關的延期，因為我們在這裡進行了一些技術更改，一旦某些軟件趕上來，這種延期應該得到認可。所以這兩件事是不重複的。希望這有助於回答您的問題。

Yes. I mean, there are really 2 macro factors that are tricky, the biggest being the interest rate. So if there's a very high Fed rate or interest rates are very high, that -- that is -- every time the Fed raises the interest rates, that's equivalent to increasing the price of a car. It makes the cars less affordable because people are able to buy cars as a function of what they can afford on a monthly basis. So that's -- so it's just almost directly equivalent to a price increase is any kind of interest rate increase.

是的。我的意思是，確實有兩個棘手的宏觀因素，最大的是利率。因此，如果美聯儲的利率非常高，或者利率非常高，也就是說，每次美聯儲提高利率，就相當於提高汽車的價格。它使汽車的價格降低了，因為人們可以根據每月的負擔能力購買汽車。這就是 - 所以它幾乎直接等同於價格上漲是任何一種利率上漲。

Then the other factor is whenever there is uncertainty in the economy, people will generally postpone new -- big, new capital purchases like a new car. This is natural human reaction. So if people are reading about layoffs and whatnot in the press, they're like, well, they might be worried about -- they might be laid off. So then they'll be, naturally, a little more hesitant than they would otherwise be to buy a new car. Now this is just the nature of the auto industry. But there is -- there will be a tremendous amount of pent-up demand for new cars, so -- but it goes through cycles.

然後另一個因素是，每當經濟出現不確定性時，人們通常會推遲新的——大的、新的資本購買，比如新車。這是人類的自然反應。因此，如果人們在媒體上看到裁員之類的消息，他們可能會擔心——他們可能會被解僱。因此，與購買新車相比，他們自然會更加猶豫。這就是汽車行業的本質。但是有——對新車的大量被壓抑的需求，所以——但它會經歷週期。

Thank you. Let's go to Ben Kallo from Baird.

謝謝。讓我們從 Baird 去找 Ben Kallo。

When you talk about many fish to fry, you talked about Dojo being a product that you can sell outside of Tesla. How do we rank all the things you have going on and then -- in the economic environment? I mean, like heat pumps and everything else you have going on versus investing in the vehicle business? Or is that not the right way to look at it?

當你談到很多魚要炸的時候，你談到了 Dojo 是一種你可以在特斯拉之外銷售的產品。我們如何對您在經濟環境中發生的所有事情進行排名？我的意思是，像熱泵和其他一切你正在做的事情與投資汽車業務相比？還是這不是正確的看待方式？

I'm not sure I fully understand your question, but I'd look at Dojo as, like, kind of a long-shot bet, but if it's a long-shot bet that pays off, it'll pay off in a very, very big way. But potentially -- yes, potentially in a very, very big way, like, in the multi-hundred billion dollar level. But the thing with, like, still put it in the long-shot category, but long shot with a multi-hundred billion dollar potential outcome. And so it's a bet worth making, but not one you can sort of say, like -- or take it to the bank type of thing. Although these days, take it to the bank, it's maybe not as secure as it used to be.

我不確定我是否完全理解你的問題，但我會把 Dojo 看作是一種遠期賭注，但如果這是一個有回報的遠期賭注，它會在很短的時間內得到回報，非常大的方式。但可能——是的，可能以非常、非常大的方式，比如在數千億美元的水平上。但是，就像，仍然把它放在遠景類別中，但遠景具有數千億美元的潛在結果。所以這是一個值得下的賭注，但不是你可以說的，比如——或者把它帶到銀行之類的事情上。雖然這些天，把它帶到銀行，它可能不像以前那樣安全。

So obviously, we're big believers in heat pumps. And that is on our list over time is to do a really good heat pump for homes and commercial offices and stuff. And we have the technology that's really good. But it's still -- it's a back burner item.

很明顯，我們非常相信熱泵。隨著時間的推移，我們的清單上就是為家庭和商業辦公室等做一個非常好的熱泵。我們擁有非常好的技術。但它仍然 - 這是一個次要項目。

Our focus is very much on vehicles, autonomy, stationary storage, basically solving sustainable energy and solving autonomy, which would be, like -- solving autonomy, if we're able to have a fleet of several million vehicles that -- with a software update can be potentially worth several times their original value, that's -- that will be -- if that happens, that will be the -- and I think it will happen, that will be the biggest asset value increase in history, I think.

我們的重點非常放在車輛、自治、固定存儲上，基本上解決可持續能源和解決自治問題，就像——解決自治問題，如果我們能夠擁有數百萬輛汽車的車隊——使用軟件更新的潛在價值可能是其原始價值的幾倍，那就是——那將是——如果發生這種情況，那將是——我認為這將發生，這將是歷史上最大的資產價值增長，我認為。

In sort of pricing, but a lot of pundits talk about the pie and losing share or gaining share. But how do you guys look at pricing versus the fee these -- or the price [of the] vehicles? Or does that not come into the equation? Sorry to ask about pricing again.

在某種定價方面，但很多專家都在談論餡餅和失去份額或獲得份額。但是你們如何看待定價與這些費用或車輛的價格？或者這不進入等式？抱歉再次詢問價格。

No, it's really just like -- every day, we get a daily real-time update of how many cars were ordered yesterday, how many cars were produced yesterday. We must have -- if there's a company that's got more real-time data than Tesla -- I'm not sure there's any company on earth that has better real-time data than Tesla, except maybe SpaceX Starlink.

不，這真的就像——每天，我們每天都會實時更新昨天訂購了多少輛汽車，昨天生產了多少輛汽車。我們必須擁有——如果有一家公司擁有比特斯拉更多的實時數據——我不確定地球上是否有任何公司擁有比特斯拉更好的實時數據，也許 SpaceX Starlink 除外。

So -- because, like, we don't have to -- for the other car companies, they will make the cars, send them to the dealers, then the dealers will sell the cars. And then it takes quite a long time for them to get the data back to actually figure out how many cars were sold. Whereas we know how many cars were ordered yesterday throughout the world. So our fingers on the pulse is real-time and does not have latency, whereas the other car companies have a lot of latency in their data.

所以 - 因為，就像，我們不必 - 對於其他汽車公司，他們會製造汽車，將它們發送給經銷商，然後經銷商將出售汽車。然後他們需要很長時間才能取回數據以實際計算出售出的汽車數量。而我們知道昨天全世界訂購了多少輛汽車。所以我們掌握的脈搏是實時的，沒有延遲，而其他汽車公司的數據有很多延遲。

As does the government, the government has a lot of latency in the data. So we're just looking at it and saying, okay, what does it take to achieve a clearing price for our vehicle production? And then we'll make a pricing change, and we see what happens immediately and adjust course.

與政府一樣，政府在數據中有很多延遲。所以我們只是看著它說，好吧，要為我們的汽車生產實現清算價格需要什麼？然後我們會改變價格，我們會立即看到會發生什麼並調整路線。

So we're adjusting course and we're thinking about it literally every day, 7 days a week. Every -- 7 days a week, I look at that e-mail and so does the rest of the team. And we try to make the least dumb decision that we can. And on balance, I think our decisions are pretty good. Sometimes they'll be down, but on average, they're, I think, better than the rest of the industry.

所以我們正在調整路線，我們每天都在考慮它，每週 7 天。每週 7 天，我都會查看該電子郵件，團隊其他成員也會查看。我們盡量做出最不愚蠢的決定。總的來說，我認為我們的決定非常好。有時他們會失敗，但平均而言，我認為他們比行業其他人要好。

Just to add on the question about EV market share or ICE. This comes up a lot. I think a lot of the public debate is around this concept of EV market share. We don't look at it that way. I mean, we look at it as on picture of cars. It's a car market and not the EV market. And actually, the mission of the company requires internal combustion engine cars to be switched over to electric vehicles. So that's what we pay attention to.

只是補充有關電動汽車市場份額或 ICE 的問題。這經常出現。我認為很多公開辯論都是圍繞電動汽車市場份額這一概念展開的。我們不這樣看。我的意思是，我們將其視為汽車圖片。這是汽車市場，而不是電動汽車市場。實際上，公司的使命要求將內燃機汽車轉換為電動汽車。所以這就是我們要注意的。

Yes. I've said that last time, too. We got -- you guys got to stop looking at it as the EVB, EV market. It's how many cars are we selling. Just start looking at it that way.

是的。我上次也說過。我們得到了 - 你們必須停止將其視為 EVB，EV 市場。這是我們賣了多少輛汽車。就這樣開始看吧。

All cars will be EVs. It's going to -- I've said this for a long time. We'll look back, I don't know, assuming civilization is still around in 20 years, we'll look back on internal combustion engine vehicles the same way we look back on external combustion engine vehicles, which is, like, the steam engine. A steam engine is an external combustion engine vehicle. And there's still a few around. They're kind of quirky and kind of cool collectors' items. That's how gasoline cars will be in the future.

所有汽車都將是電動汽車。它將——我已經說了很長時間了。我們回頭看，我不知道，假設文明在 20 年後仍然存在，我們將像回顧外燃機汽車一樣回顧內燃機汽車，就像蒸汽一樣引擎。蒸汽機是一種外燃機車輛。而且周圍還有一些。它們有點古怪，也很酷，是收藏家的物品。未來的汽油車就是這樣。

Thank you. Let's go to Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

謝謝。讓我們去找奧本海默的科林魯施。

Can you talk a little bit about how much of the actual cost structure is variable on these vehicles? And if you could give us a range on plus or minus the lithium cost within those contracted volumes that you're seeing?

你能談談這些車輛的實際成本結構有多少是可變的嗎？如果你能給我們一個範圍，在你看到的合同數量內加上或減去鋰成本？

Well, I think -- again, would really love to have a crystal ball here, but we don't have it. Depending on what time scale you're looking at, most of the cars are variable -- so -- most of the car cost is variable. So -- and probably, if I were to guess, I think we will see improved costs from suppliers. Yes, I think we will -- that is our expectation.

好吧，我想——再一次，真的很想在這裡有一個水晶球，但我們沒有。根據您所查看的時間尺度，大多數汽車都是可變的 - 所以 - 大部分汽車成本是可變的。所以 - 可能，如果我猜的話，我認為我們會看到供應商的成本有所改善。是的，我認為我們會——這是我們的期望。

And we're already starting to see that, Elon, I think you had mentioned before that we anticipated a crash in the lithium prices and some of that has flowed through by way of lithium carbonate reductions into battery cost. And the same thing will happen with lithium hydroxide. The length of the supply chain matters also because what we're talking about is very far upstream.

我們已經開始看到這一點，埃隆，我想你之前提到過我們預計鋰價格會暴跌，其中一些已經通過碳酸鋰降低電池成本的方式實現。氫氧化鋰也會發生同樣的事情。供應鏈的長度也很重要，因為我們談論的是非常遠的上游。

So by the time it makes its way into the battery that slip in a car, it'll be several months. But beyond just commodity pricing, as Zach mentioned earlier, we're also very focused on other metrics that make production very efficient. So for example, detention and demurrage, error expedites. I think our error expedites are down 90%. Detention and demurrage is down 93% from the peaks. That can be hundreds of thousands of dollars per vehicle. So we're sort of attacking all vectors and becoming very efficient.

因此，當它進入汽車電池時，需要幾個月的時間。但除了商品定價，正如 Zach 之前提到的，我們還非常關注其他使生產非常高效的指標。因此，例如，滯留費和滯期費，錯誤加速。我認為我們的錯誤加速率下降了 90%。滯留費和滯期費比峰值下降了 93%。每輛車可能要花費數十萬美元。所以我們有點攻擊所有載體並變得非常有效。

Okay. And then my follow-up is really around stationary storage demand on the utility scale. I mean, obviously, there's a gigantic queue for interconnection in the U.S. And can you talk about the volume of quotation you're seeing at this point around stationary storage for the renewables SKU on a global basis? And how much of that is converting into actual sales?

好的。然後我的後續行動實際上是圍繞公用事業規模的固定存儲需求。我的意思是，很明顯，在美國有一個巨大的互連隊列。你能談談你目前在全球範圍內看到的可再生能源 SKU 固定存儲的報價量嗎？其中有多少轉化為實際銷售額？

Drew, do you want to take that?

德魯，你要拿那個嗎？

I mean -- yes, I don't -- that's also not exactly how we look at it, really. We're not like -- yes, we're not engaged in the interconnection queue. Like, we're focused on ramping Megapack as quickly and efficiently as we can, and we have visibility into the pipelines of a variety of different renewable energy and just pure stationary storage developers and we also develop our own projects. And we're mostly just -- we're being selective in trying to pick the products -- the projects that best fit our mission and our objectives.

我的意思是——是的，我沒有——這也不是我們看待它的方式，真的。我們不像-- 是的，我們沒有參與互連隊列。就像，我們專注於盡可能快速有效地提升 Megapack，並且我們可以了解各種不同的可再生能源和純固定存儲開發商的管道，我們還開發了自己的項目。而且我們主要只是 - 我們在嘗試挑選產品時有選擇性 - 最適合我們的使命和目標的項目。

Yes. This -- again, this is not a product call, but we'll have something -- I mean, this -- we're making improvements on many fronts, including Megapacks. So I think some of those improvements will improve the speed at which you can connect the Megapacks to the grid.

是的。這——再一次，這不是產品電話會議，但我們會有一些東西——我的意思是，這——我們正在許多方面進行改進，包括 Megapacks。所以我認為其中一些改進將提高將 Megapacks 連接到電網的速度。

Thank you. The next question is from Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。下一個問題來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。

Do you still see 2 million units as an upside case for volume this year? And is the gating factor for reaching 1.8 million or 2 million units in 2023's supply chain, as was mentioned on your last conference call? Or is it more about demand at this point?

您是否仍將 200 萬台視為今年銷量的上行案例？正如您在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，2023 年供應鏈中達到 180 萬或 200 萬個單位的門控因素是什麼？還是此時更多是關於需求？

Well, if you have a crystal ball you can lend me, back to the crystal ball situation. These are volatile times. From a production standpoint, if things go well, we've got a shot at 2 million vehicles this year. But that is an upside case. And we feel comfortable with 1.8 million. And we'll just have to see how this year unfolds.

好吧，如果你有水晶球可以藉給我，回到水晶球的情況。這是動蕩的時代。從生產的角度來看，如果一切順利，我們今年的產量有望達到 200 萬輛。但這是一個好的例子。我們對 180 萬感到滿意。我們只需要看看今年的情況如何。

That's helpful. And then the company had spoken at the Investor Day and then for the past conference calls about opening up its vehicle charging network. Can you speak to some of the feedback you've been getting from both Tesla owners and non-Tesla owners? And how the ramp of the charging network may progress from here?

這很有幫助。然後該公司在投資者日和過去的電話會議上發表了關於開放其汽車充電網絡的講話。你能談談你從特斯拉車主和非特斯拉車主那裡得到的一些反饋嗎？充電網絡的坡道如何從這裡發展？

Drew, do you want to take that?

德魯，你要拿那個嗎？

Yes. So as you may have seen, we opened our V4 post in Europe and our Magic Dock post in North America in Q1, and that is indicative of the direction we're heading with universal compatibility for all vehicles, no matter where the charge port, et cetera, in all major markets, and we're going to continue to roll out those sort of improved offerings as we build new stations.

是的。正如您可能已經看到的那樣，我們在第一季度在歐洲開設了 V4 後站，在北美開設了 Magic Dock 後站，這表明我們正朝著所有車輛通用兼容性的方向前進，無論充電端口在哪裡，等等，在所有主要市場，我們將在建設新站時繼續推出這些改進的產品。

We're always balancing, like, our ability to serve our own customers with our ability to serve new customers when doing that. I think we've been able to balance it rather well. For example, in Europe, 50% of all of our supercharging stations are open to all EVs, and we've been able to do that without any increase in wait times at all for anybody. So we're going to continue to take a similar approach as we do this in North America and China over the coming quarters.

我們總是在平衡我們為自己的客戶提供服務的能力和我們為新客戶提供服務的能力。我認為我們已經能夠很好地平衡它。例如，在歐洲，我們 50% 的超級充電站對所有電動汽車開放，而且我們已經能夠做到這一點，而不會增加任何人的等待時間。因此，我們將在未來幾個季度繼續採取與北美和中國類似的方法。

Okay. Thank you very much. Let's go to Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

好的。非常感謝。讓我們去找 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I just wanted to, first, just follow up on your comments in your letter about leveraging your cost position as others struggle with unit economics and also taking into account the lifetime revenue, actually in a way that most other automakers will never see just given your service network and supercharging and other attributes.

我只是想，首先，只是跟進你在信中關於利用你的成本地位的評論，因為其他人在單位經濟方面苦苦掙扎，並且還考慮了生命週期收入，實際上，大多數其他汽車製造商永遠不會看到的方式只是因為你服務網絡和增壓等屬性。

Can you just maybe give us a sense of how far you'd be willing to take this? Are there brackets around the range of initial margin that you'd be comfortable with? And again, any color that you might provide on the updated range of margins that you'd expect in the auto business?

你能告訴我們你願意走多遠嗎？初始保證金範圍內是否有括號？再說一次，您可能會提供您對汽車業務期望的最新利潤率範圍的任何顏色？

I think we may have answered this question or tried to answer this question a few times. But it's difficult to say what the margin will be. It depends on what the macroeconomic environment is like. So for example, if the Fed were to lower the rates, that would be super helpful for demand. If they raise them, that just raises the interest costs that buyers have to pay for to buy a car. So it reduces affordability and therefore, reduces demand.

我想我們可能已經回答過這個問題或嘗試過幾次回答這個問題。但很難說利潤率是多少。這取決於宏觀經濟環境如何。因此，例如，如果美聯儲降低利率，那將對需求非常有幫助。如果他們提高利率，那隻會增加買家為買車而必須支付的利息成本。因此，它降低了負擔能力，從而減少了需求。

So it's -- but if -- like, if we look past, say, this year or, like, go sometime next year, middle of next year, so I think things are looking really -- I think, like I said, we'll weather through if there are some major geopolitical wildcard that turns up. But in the absence of that, I think I would be very optimistic about middle of next year, end of next year.

所以它——但是如果——比如，如果我們回顧過去，比如說，今年，或者，比如，明年某個時候，明年年中，所以我認為事情看起來真的——我想，就像我說的，我們如果出現一些主要的地緣政治通配符，它就會經受住考驗。但如果沒有，我想我對明年年中、明年年底會非常樂觀。

Just to add to Elon's comments, just 2 other points. What's really important for us this year in addition to just managing the day-to-day of the business but is also investing in, as Elon mentioned, what 2024 and 2025 will look like. And so using the cash generated from the sale of products today and reinvesting that, this is very important for us.

只是為了補充 Elon 的評論，還有 2 點。今年對我們來說真正重要的是，除了管理日常業務外，正如埃隆提到的，還投資於 2024 年和 2025 年的情況。因此，使用今天銷售產品產生的現金並將其進行再投資，這對我們來說非常重要。

And I think that what happens to margins over the next couple of quarters that only matters in the context of what that means for our ability to reinvest into 2024 and 2025. And we have a lot of space before that becomes something that we have to revisit, our investment plans. And so we're planning to keep the business healthy. But I just want to caution folks about reading too much into what happens over the near term here, because we're very focused as a company on making sure that when we exit this macroeconomic situation, this company is positioned in the best possible way.

而且我認為，未來幾個季度利潤率的變化僅在這對我們對 2024 年和 2025 年進行再投資的能力意味著什麼的情況下才重要。在這成為我們必須重新審視的事情之前，我們還有很大的空間，我們的投資計劃。因此，我們計劃保持業務健康。但我只是想提醒人們不要過度解讀近期發生的事情，因為作為一家公司，我們非常專注於確保當我們退出這種宏觀經濟形勢時，這家公司處於最佳位置。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Just to elaborate on that point though, the revenue the long-term lifetime revenue that you're targeting from each vehicle is massive. So if you took that to the extreme, it would seem that you'd be comfortable with a relatively low initial margin. Am I misinterpreting that? Or is that exactly right? And just…

只是為了詳細說明這一點，你從每輛車中獲得的長期終身收入是巨大的。因此，如果您將其發揮到極致，您似乎會對相對較低的初始保證金感到滿意。我誤解了嗎？或者這是完全正確的嗎？只是……

Correct. That is exactly right.

正確的。這是完全正確的。

Okay. And the -- normally, in a recession, when consumers feel less financially secure, actually price elasticity deteriorates. Just based on your pulse taking of the consumer, do you have a view on elasticity of demand?

好的。而且——通常情況下，在經濟衰退期間，當消費者感覺財務不安全時，實際上價格彈性會惡化。僅根據您對消費者的脈搏，您對需求彈性有何看法？

Well, I can't emphasize enough the whole -- just fundamental question of affordability. For most people, their ability to buy a car is a function of can they make monthly payment or not. And so like I said, if interest rates are really high, like they are right now, in some cases, people can't get a loan at all. So it's -- I think probably banks are pretty -- not leaning forward in providing loans, I expect, these days.

好吧，我怎麼強調都不為過——只是負擔能力的基本問題。對於大多數人來說，他們買車的能力取決於他們是否可以每月付款。所以就像我說的，如果利率真的很高，就像現在這樣，在某些情況下，人們根本無法獲得貸款。所以它——我認為銀行可能很漂亮——我預計這些天不會傾向於提供貸款。

So that's -- but, like, the -- there is quite a powerful story here when you -- going back to something that as alluded to a moment ago or mentioned a moment ago that Tesla is in a uniquely strong strategic position. Because we're the only ones making cars that, technically, we could sell for 0 profit for now and then yield actually tremendous economics in the future through autonomy. No one else can do that. I'm not sure how many people will appreciate the profundity of what I've just said, but it is extremely significant.

所以這就是 - 但是，就像 - 當你 - 回到剛才提到或剛才提到的特斯拉處於獨特強大的戰略地位時，這裡有一個非常強大的故事。因為我們是唯一一家生產汽車的公司，從技術上講，我們現在可以零利潤出售，然後在未來通過自動駕駛產生巨大的經濟效益。沒有其他人能做到這一點。我不確定有多少人會欣賞我剛才所說的深刻內容，但這非常重要。

Thank you. Let's go to Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

謝謝。讓我們去摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

So first, Elon, good luck with tomorrow's launch of Boca Chica. Break a leg.

首先，Elon，祝您明天推出 Boca Chica 好運。打斷一條腿。

Thanks. We definitely -- you can't have too much luck in the rocket business, that's for sure.

謝謝。我們絕對 - 你不能在火箭業務中有太多運氣，這是肯定的。

Incredible. So now that you've gotten to know the Twitter architecture kind of intimately well over the past 6 months, what can you tell Tesla stakeholders about how an X.com or Super App could be potentially accelerative to Tesla's business model?

極好的。那麼既然你在過去 6 個月裡已經對 Twitter 架構有了一定程度的了解，你能告訴特斯拉利益相關者 X.com 或超級應用程序如何可能加速特斯拉的商業模式嗎？

Well, I don't know. I guess it could make it potentially make it easier to buy cars. So -- our string is somewhat off topic here because this is Tesla's, but I think there are some benefit. I think, probably, there's some benefit, yes.

嗯，我不知道。我想這可能會讓買車變得更容易。所以 - 我們的字符串在這裡有點偏離主題，因為這是特斯拉的，但我認為有一些好處。我認為，可能會有一些好處，是的。

I get it, Elon. So just as a follow-up on manufacturing, you're a student of history. And you'll note that back in 1913, Henry Ford introduced the moving assembly line in Highland Park, Michigan. And the price of a Model T, which had already been undercutting cars around the time, fell another 70% or 80%, and hundreds of rival car companies went bust. I'm wondering, if history is repeating itself here, Elon, and that the recent pattern of cuts with you is way ahead of the cost curve compared to competition, is this -- it seems like it's a calculated strategy, not just in reaction to competition or changing supply-demand in the market, but your -- could we catalyze some Darwinian forces in the EV market?

我明白了，埃隆。因此，作為製造業的後續行動，您是歷史的學生。您會注意到，早在 1913 年，亨利·福特就在密歇根州的海蘭帕克引入了移動裝配線。而當時已經在壓低汽車價格的 T 型車的價格又下跌了 70% 或 80%，數百家競爭對手的汽車公司倒閉了。我想知道，如果歷史在這裡重演，Elon，並且最近與您的削減模式與競爭相比遠遠領先於成本曲線，這似乎是一種計算策略，而不僅僅是反應競爭或不斷變化的市場供需，但你的 - 我們能否在電動汽車市場中催化一些達爾文主義的力量？

Well, I mean, we're not trying to, say, take pricing actions in order to be deliberately -- to deliberately undermine competitors or anything like that. We really don't think about competitors that much. We just look at, do people like our cars, how can we make the product better, can they afford our cars and the sort of -- the things, like, improving service and whatnot.

好吧，我的意思是，我們並不是要故意採取定價行動來故意破壞競爭對手或類似的事情。我們真的沒有那麼多考慮競爭對手。我們只是看看，人們是否喜歡我們的汽車，我們如何才能使產品更好，他們能否負擔得起我們的汽車以及諸如改善服務之類的事情。

But I'd say, we do have this unique strategic advantage that we have -- we're making a car that, if autonomy pans out, and we think it will, where that asset is actually will be worth a hell a lot more in the future than it is now. So it is technically be possible to sell it at 0 profit, but still have the net present value of future cash flows associated with that asset, very significant.

但我要說的是，我們確實擁有我們擁有的這種獨特的戰略優勢——我們正在製造一款汽車，如果自動駕駛成功，而且我們認為它會成功，那麼該資產實際上會更值錢將來比現在。因此，從技術上講，可以以零利潤出售它，但仍具有與該資產相關的未來現金流量的淨現值，非常重要。

And service and charging and insurance and all of these other ongoing revenue streams that other companies don't have.

以及服務、收費和保險以及其他公司所沒有的所有其他持續收入來源。

Yes.

是的。

Certainly, we want all EVs to succeed, too. We just want to say that we're not like some malicious attack to try to discourage everybody.

當然，我們也希望所有電動汽車都能成功。我們只是想說，我們不像某種惡意攻擊那樣試圖勸阻所有人。

Definitely not. We're like opening up superchargers. We've made our patents available for free. So it's like -- we're trying to be helpful here. So we're not out to destroy competitors or anything like that. We're trying to help competitors, frankly, in any way we can.

當然不。我們就像打開增壓器。我們已經免費提供我們的專利。所以這就像——我們試圖在這裡提供幫助。所以我們不是要摧毀競爭對手或類似的東西。坦率地說，我們正在盡我們所能幫助競爭對手。

Thank you. Let's go to Dan Levy from Barclays.

謝謝。讓我們去拜訪巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

First question, you're ramping supply at Austin and Berlin, so wanted to understand just how critical it is to further increase volume at those plants just to get the vertical integration benefits in the face of the sort of market with some demand questions. And just broadly, should we -- I mean, historically, you've been operating at the pace at which your supply allows you to produce as opposed to gauging to demand.

第一個問題，你正在增加奧斯汀和柏林的供應，所以想了解進一步增加這些工廠的產量是多麼重要，只是為了在面對有一些需求問題的市場時獲得垂直整合的好處。從廣義上講，我們應該——我的意思是，從歷史上看，你一直在按照你的供應允許你生產的速度運作，而不是衡量需求。

Should we generally expect that you're going to continue to produce at your -- whatever the max capacity that you're allowed within your supply constraints, regardless of what the broader economic environment is just to continue to get that volume out there?

我們是否應該普遍期望您將繼續以您的方式生產 - 無論您在供應限制內允許的最大容量，而不管更廣泛的經濟環境只是為了繼續獲得該產量？

So that is -- yes, I mean, there could be, like, obviously a macro shock that is so severe that people just stop buying cars for some reason. But in the absence of that, we will continue to grow output at a rapid clip.

所以那是——是的，我的意思是，可能會出現非常嚴重的宏觀衝擊，以至於人們出於某種原因停止購買汽車。但如果不這樣做，我們將繼續快速增長產出。

Great. And then just on the margins associated with Austin and Berlin. You mentioned Austin and Berlin have a margin drag until you reach intended volumes. I don't know if you can disclose what those volumes are. And then maybe you could just remind us of what the margin profile of Austin and Berlin will look like versus Shanghai once you get the vertical integration benefits in place.

偉大的。然後就在與奧斯汀和柏林相關的邊緣。你提到奧斯汀和柏林在達到預期數量之前會有利潤率拖累。我不知道你是否可以透露這些卷是什麼。然後，也許你可以提醒我們，一旦你獲得了垂直整合的好處，奧斯汀和柏林的利潤率與上海相比會是什麼樣子。

Well, probably 1/2 will be quite as good as -- Shanghai is hard to -- as a very efficient cost structures, obviously, our lowest cost structure in the world. But we do expect to be -- make significant improvements in Austin and Berlin and continue to make improvements in Fremont as well, so, yes.

好吧，可能 1/2 將與 - 上海很難 - 作為一個非常有效的成本結構，顯然，我們在世界上最低的成本結構。但我們確實希望——在奧斯汀和柏林做出重大改進，並繼續在弗里蒙特做出改進，所以，是的。

We've increased -- this is Roshan, by the way. We increased our localization efforts. So that will then drive down our days and on-hand requirements. We've made 10% quarter-over-quarter improvement in days, Elon and, so we'll continue that path as the localization improves.

我們增加了——順便說一句，這是 Roshan。我們加大了本地化力度。因此，這將降低我們的工作日和手頭需求。我們已經在幾天內實現了 10% 的季度環比改進，Elon 和，所以隨著本地化的改進，我們將繼續這條道路。

Okay. Thank you very much. And our final question comes from Philippe Houchois from Jefferies.

好的。非常感謝。我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Philippe Houchois。

It's slightly longer term. I completely agree with your comments that we should look at Tesla in terms of auto market share and not EV market share. But I'm just wondering, as you build up the market share globally, is there a limit to the direct selling business model as you practice it? And should we think about -- going forward, you need to look into the agency or using importers to basically develop market share more smoothly, I guess, globally? And so in other words, is there kind of tell-by date for the direct business model as you practice it today?

時間稍微長一點。我完全同意你的意見，即我們應該從汽車市場份額而不是電動汽車市場份額的角度來看待特斯拉。但我只是想知道，隨著你們在全球範圍內建立市場份額，你們在實踐直銷業務模式時是否有限制？我們是否應該考慮 - 展望未來，您需要調查該機構或使用進口商來基本上更順利地開發市場份額，我想，在全球範圍內？因此，換句話說，您今天實踐的直接商業模式是否有某種截止日期？

It seems to be working well so far.

到目前為止它似乎運作良好。

Because we hear different feedback from customers who miss the human interaction or unhappy with the service, and I'm just wondering if you're seeing some growth pains in there that would lead you to change. You're not seeing that?

因為我們從錯過人際互動或對服務不滿意的客戶那裡聽到了不同的反饋，我只是想知道你是否看到了一些成長的痛苦，這會導致你改變。你沒看到嗎？

Well, I mean, there are -- since we're always going to have some growing pains where at times -- and it depends on which geography we're talking about where sometimes service is behind sales, sometimes it's ahead of sales. This is -- I mean Tesla's growing, I believe, faster than any company in history that makes a large complex manufactured object.

好吧，我的意思是，有——因為我們有時總會遇到一些成長的煩惱——這取決於我們談論的是哪個地區，有時服務落後於銷售，有時領先於銷售。這是 - 我的意思是特斯拉的增長，我相信，比歷史上任何製造大型複雜製造對象的公司都要快。

So these are -- as you try to max -- it's always difficult to match exponentials. So -- but I think it is helpful to have the feedback loop with a service, because that means we feel the pain of service, and then we can adjust the design to make the car need less service. And I think that gives us the right incentive structure, like, because the best service is no service. The car doesn't break.

所以這些——當你試圖最大化——總是很難匹配指數。所以——但我認為有服務的反饋循環是有幫助的，因為這意味著我們感受到服務的痛苦，然後我們可以調整設計，使汽車需要更少的服務。我認為這給了我們正確的激勵結構，因為最好的服務就是沒有服務。車不壞。

And whereas if you have, say, a dealer network that is reliant upon services revenue, then you arguably have a misalignment of incentives where they're making money on service. But actually, we want to -- the best thing for the consumer is the car doesn't need servicing, so.

如果你有，比如說，一個依賴服務收入的經銷商網絡，那麼你可以說他們在通過服務賺錢的地方沒有激勵措施。但實際上，我們想要——對消費者來說最好的事情就是汽車不需要維修，所以。

Yes. And then last one, if I can follow up. Have you worked out, I mean, for many of your traditional competitors, a fair amount of profits for them comes from selling spare parts and servicing? You don't have that in your profit structure. And have you looked at the deficit you have compared to your peers?

是的。然後是最後一個，如果我可以跟進的話。我的意思是，對於您的許多傳統競爭對手來說，您是否已經計算出相當一部分利潤來自銷售備件和服務？你的利潤結構中沒有那個。你有沒有看過你與同齡人相比的赤字？

Yes. Actually, this one -- assuming I could wax on about for a while, because, really, people didn't understand that the best short-selling argument against Tesla for the longest time was the fact that Tesla does not have an existing fleet and that the auto industry, the reason incumbents succeed and newcomers fail, the biggest reason is that the incumbents have a large fleet, and they're able to sell new cars at close to 0 margin and then sell spare parts at a very high margin, sort of razors and blades type thing.

是的。實際上，這個 - 假設我可以繼續講一會兒，因為，真的，人們不明白，在最長的時間裡，反對特斯拉的最佳賣空理由是特斯拉沒有現成的車隊，而且汽車行業，在位者成功而新來者失敗的原因，最大的原因是在位者擁有龐大的車隊，他們能夠以接近 0 的利潤率銷售新車，然後以非常高的利潤率出售備件，某種剃須刀和刀片類型的東西。

And so the only way to actually succeed, for a newcomer to succeed is to have a product that is so compelling that people are willing to pay a premium over the incumbent product. And in the absence of electrification and autonomy, I don't think a newcomer can succeed.

因此，對於新來者來說，真正成功的唯一途徑是擁有一種如此引人注目的產品，以至於人們願意為現有產品支付溢價。而且在沒有電氣化和自治的情況下，我認為新人不可能成功。

Thank you very much, everyone. Unfortunately, that's all the time we have for this quarter. We'll see you again in 3 months from now. Thank you.

非常感謝大家。不幸的是，這就是我們本季度的全部時間。我們將在 3 個月後再次見到你。謝謝。