思科 (CSCO) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收達 158 億美元,年增 12%,產品營收年增 17%,EPS 年增 10%,均超越指引高標
    • Q4 指引:營收 167-169 億美元,全年營收 628-630 億美元,全年 EPS 4.27-4.29 美元,AI 基礎設施訂單預期全年達 90 億美元(上修)
    • 市場反應正面,產品訂單年增 35%,美洲、EMEA、APJC 全部地區皆雙位數成長
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 基礎設施需求強勁,Hyperscaler 訂單年增三位數,全年訂單預期大幅上修
      • Networking 產品連續七季雙位數成長,企業與公部門需求強勁
      • Acacia 光學業務創新高,Q3 訂單超過 10 億美元,預期全年成長超過 200%
      • 新一代安全產品(如 XDR、Hyper Shield、AI Defense)帶動安全業務新客戶數持續增加
    • 風險:
      • 產品毛利率受產品組合與記憶體成本上升影響,年減 330 個基點
      • Splunk 業務由 on-prem 轉向雲端訂閱,短期拖累營收成長
      • 舊世代安全產品持續下滑,部分抵銷新產品成長動能
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Networking 產品營收:年增 20%,連七季雙位數成長,AI 與 campus refresh 為主力
    • AI 基礎設施 Hyperscaler 訂單:Q3 達 19 億美元,YTD 53 億美元,全年預期 90 億美元
    • Acacia 光學業務:Q3 訂單超過 10 億美元,預期全年成長 200%+
    • 企業資料中心交換器訂單:年增 40%+,近九季有七季雙位數成長
    • 無線產品訂單:年增 40%+,Wi-Fi 7 佔 Q3 無線產品一半
    • 安全產品(不含 Splunk):新產品訂單雙位數成長,防火牆訂單強勁
  4. 財務預測
    • Q4 營收預估 167-169 億美元,全年營收預估 628-630 億美元
    • Q4 毛利率預估 65.5%-66.5%,全年維持穩定
    • 全年 CapEx 未具體揭露
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q4 與下半年營收成長的持續性?AI Hyperscaler 與非 AI 業務的成長展望?
      A: AI Hyperscaler 明年預期認列至少 60 億美元營收,非 AI 業務將回歸長期 4-6% 成長模型,細節將於下季提供更明確指引。
    • Q: 非 AI 訂單年增 19%,是否有提前拉貨現象?成長可持續性如何?
      A: 部分提前拉貨但幅度有限,主要成長來自企業 AI 應用與資安升級需求,Q4 pipeline 健康,未見異常拉貨。
    • Q: 供應鏈現況與矽智財(Silicon One)自製對供應鏈的影響?
      A: 自製 Silicon One 提升供應鏈掌控力,已確保 2026 年底前主要原料供應,未見 de-commit,並積極降低記憶體用量與提升產能。
    • Q: Splunk 雲端轉型對安全業務與 ARR 成長的影響?
      A: Splunk 雲端轉型短期拖累營收,但新安全產品與防火牆業務強勁,預期有望逐季改善,Splunk 影響將隨雲端滲透率穩定而減弱。
    • Q: 產品價格調整策略與對營收/毛利的影響?
      A: 硬體產品針對高記憶體用量品項調漲,縮短報價有效期,Q3 訂單成長有 4-5 個百分點來自價格,Q4 價格效益將進一步反映在營收與毛利。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to Cisco's third quarter and fiscal year 2026 financial results conference call. At the request of Cisco, today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect. Now, I would like to introduce Sami Badri, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

    歡迎參加思科 2026 會計年度第三季暨 2026 會計年度財務業績電話會議。應思科要求,今天的會議將進行錄音。如有任何異議,您可中斷連線。現在,我想介紹投資人關係主管 Sami Badri。先生,您可以開始。

  • Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

    Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

  • Good afternoon, everyone. This is Sami Badri, Cisco's Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Chuck Robbins, our Chair and CEO, and Mark Patterson, our CFO.

    各位下午好。我是思科投資人關係主管 Sami Badri,與我一同出席的有董事長兼執行長 Chuck Robbins,以及財務長 Mark Patterson。

  • Cisco's earnings press release and supplemental information, including GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. Today's call is also being live streamed on YouTube and LinkedIn.

    思科的財報新聞稿與補充資訊(包括 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調節表)可於我們的投資人關係網站取得。今天的電話會議也會在 YouTube 與 LinkedIn 進行直播。

  • Following this call, we'll also make the recorded webcast and slides available on our website. Throughout today's call, we'll be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results. We will discuss product results in terms of revenue and geographic and customer results in terms of product orders unless stated otherwise. All comparisons will be made on a year-over-year basis.

    本次電話會議結束後,我們也會在網站上提供錄製的網路直播與簡報投影片。在今天的會議中,我們將同時引用 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的財務結果。除非另有說明,我們將以營收來討論產品結果,並以產品訂單來討論地區與客戶結果。所有比較皆以年對年為基礎。

  • Please note that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements, including our guidance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026.

    請注意,我們今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述,包括我們對第四季與 2026 會計年度的展望指引。

  • These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties detailed in our SEC filings. Particularly, our most recent 10-K and 10-Q reports, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements.

    這些陳述受我們向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交文件中所詳述之風險與不確定性影響。特別是我們最新的 10-K 與 10-Q 報告,其中列示了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所載內容出現重大差異的重要風險因素。

  • nm, With respect to guidance, please also see the slides and press release that accompany this call for further details. Cisco will not comment on its financial guidance during the quarter unless it is done through an explicit public disclosure. Now, I'll turn it over to Chuck.

    嗯,關於指引,亦請參閱隨本次電話會議提供的投影片與新聞稿以取得更多細節。除非透過明確的公開揭露,思科在季度期間將不會就其財務指引發表評論。現在,我把時間交給 Chuck。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Sammy, and thank you all for joining us today. Q3 was a great quarter for Cisco, with our momentum accelerating and revenue and earnings per share both growing double-digits and coming in above the high end of our guidance ranges.

    謝謝你,Sammy,也感謝各位今天加入我們。第三季對思科而言是非常出色的一季,我們的動能加速,營收與每股盈餘皆呈現雙位數成長,且雙雙高於我們指引區間的上緣。

  • We delivered record revenue of $15.8 billion in Q3, up 12% year-over-year. Product revenue was up 17%, once again driven by robust demand for our AI infrastructure and campus networking solutions.

    我們在第三季創下 158 億美元的營收新高,年增 12%。產品營收年增 17%,再次受惠於市場對我們 AI 基礎設施與園區網路解決方案的強勁需求。

  • Our record top-line performance, combined with operating efficiencies and outstanding execution by our teams, allowed us to deliver non-GAAP EPS growth of 10%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the initiatives we outlined last quarter to mitigate memory price increases across the market. We believe the trust our customers and partners place in us has never mattered more and our technology is more relevant than ever in the AI era. As a result, we saw record high demand in Q3.

    我們創紀錄的營收表現,加上營運效率提升與團隊卓越的執行力,使我們交出非 GAAP 每股盈餘年增 10% 的成績,展現我們上季所提出、用以緩解市場記憶體價格上漲影響之各項措施的成效。我們相信,客戶與合作夥伴對我們的信任從未如此重要,而在 AI 時代,我們的技術也比以往任何時候都更具相關性。因此,我們在第三季看到創新高的需求。

  • Overall, total product orders grew 35% year-over-year. Excluding hyperscaler orders, which grew triple digits, product orders were up 19% year-over-year, demonstrating the continued broad-based demand we see for our technology globally.

    整體而言,產品訂單總額年增 35%。若排除年增達三位數的超大規模客戶(hyperscaler)訂單,產品訂單年增 19%,顯示我們在全球範圍內持續看到對我們技術的廣泛需求。

  • Enterprise product orders were up 18% year-over-year in Q3 with strength across our entire networking portfolio. Public sector orders were up 27% year-over-year, with double-digit growth across all geographies. Product orders from service provider and cloud customers accelerated in Q3, growing 105% year-over-year, with five of the top hyperscalers each growing in triple digits.

    第三季企業產品訂單年增 18%,我們整體網路產品組合皆表現強勁。公部門訂單年增 27%,各地區皆呈現雙位數成長。服務供應商與雲端客戶的產品訂單在第三季加速成長,年增 105%,其中前五大 hyperscalers 各自皆達三位數成長。

  • We also saw solid growth from telco customers in Q3, with orders up 9%. [Telcos] are investing in Cisco technology as they prepare their networks to handle the scale, speed, and complexity of AI.

    我們在第三季也看到電信客戶帶來穩健成長,訂單年增 9%。[電信業者] 正在投資思科技術,以便在為 AI 所需的規模、速度與複雜度做準備時,強化其網路能力。

  • Now some color on demand from a product perspective. Networking product orders continue to accelerate, growing more than 50% in Q3, driven by triple-digit growth in service provider routing and compute and double-digit growth in data center switching, campus switching, wireless, enterprise routing, and industrial IoT products.

    接下來從產品角度補充一些需求面的情況。網路產品訂單持續加速,第三季成長超過 50%,主要由服務供應商路由與運算的三位數成長所帶動,同時資料中心交換器、園區交換器、無線、企業路由與工業物聯網產品皆呈現雙位數成長。

  • This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth for our networking portfolio overall. AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers totaled $1.9 billion in Q3, compared to $600 million in the year prior, with strong growth across our Silicon One systems and market-leading Acacia Optics.

    這也代表我們整體網路產品組合已連續第七季維持雙位數成長。第三季來自 hyperscalers 的 AI 基礎設施訂單達 19 億美元,較前一年同期的 6 億美元大幅提升,並在我們的 Silicon One 系統與市場領先的 Acacia 光學產品上皆呈現強勁成長。

  • The year-to-date total of $5.3 billion in orders taken from hyperscalers. Already exceeds our prior expectations of $5 billion for FY26 with a full quarter remaining. Given the strong demand, we now expect to take AI infrastructure orders of approximately $9 billion from hyperscalers in FY26, 4.5 times our FY25 total.

    本會計年度迄今來自 hyperscalers 的訂單總額達 53 億美元。在尚有一個完整季度的情況下,已超過我們先前對 2026 會計年度 50 億美元的預期。鑑於需求強勁,我們目前預期 2026 會計年度來自 hyperscalers 的 AI 基礎設施訂單約為 90 億美元,為 2025 會計年度總額的 4.5 倍。

  • We expect to recognize approximately $4 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in fiscal year '26. Our Acacia business had its strongest quarter to date with more than $1 billion in orders in Q3 and is on track to grow over 200% year-over-year in fiscal year '26.

    我們預期在 2026 會計年度將認列約 40 億美元來自 hyperscalers 的 AI 基礎設施營收。我們的 Acacia 業務在第三季創下歷來最強勁的一季,訂單超過 10 億美元,並可望在 2026 會計年度年增超過 200%。

  • Acacia is leading the coherent pluggable optics market, and we show strong momentum across this business. To date, we have shipped over 750,400 gig and over 40,800 gig coherent pluggable optics. Which we believe far exceeds the next largest supplier shipments for both speeds.

    Acacia 在相干可插拔光學(coherent pluggable optics)市場居於領先地位,我們在此業務上展現強勁動能。截至目前,我們已出貨超過 750 個 400G 以及超過 40 個 800G 的相干可插拔光學產品。我們相信,無論在兩種速率上,這都遠遠超過下一家最大供應商的出貨量。

  • We had five new design wins with hyperscalers in Q3, two for optics, each with different hyperscalers, and three for systems, including the first two wins for our Silicon One P200 powered system for major scale-across use cases and a Silicon One G200 powered system for a scale-out use case.

    第三季我們在 hyperscalers 取得五項新的設計導入(design win):其中兩項為光學產品,分別來自不同的 hyperscaler;另三項為系統產品,包括我們首度在主要 scale-across 使用情境中取得兩項採用 Silicon One P200 的系統勝出案,以及一項在 scale-out 使用情境中採用 Silicon One G200 的系統勝出案。

  • Separately, we took approximately $300 million in AI infrastructure orders from NeoCloud, Sovereign and Enterprise customers in Q3. We have seen triple-digit year-over-year order growth in each quarter of fiscal year '26 with approximately $900 million in orders taken year-to-date, and we have a growing pipeline of approximately $3 billion for our high-performance AI infrastructure portfolio across these customers.

    另外,第三季我們也從 NeoCloud、主權(Sovereign)與企業客戶取得約 3 億美元的 AI 基礎設施訂單。在 2026 會計年度的每一季,我們都看到訂單年增達三位數;本年度迄今累計訂單約 9 億美元,且我們在這些客戶的高效能 AI 基礎設施產品組合上,正建立約 30 億美元、持續成長的商機管線。

  • Enterprise data center switching orders grew more than 40% year-over-year and have now grown double-digits seven of the past nine quarters. We believe the AI infrastructure opportunity in enterprise is continuing to ramp as Nexus switch orders tagged for AI deployments were up almost 50% sequentially in Q3.

    企業資料中心交換器訂單年增超過 40%,且在過去九個季度中已有七個季度呈現雙位數成長。我們認為企業端的 AI 基礎設施機會仍在持續升溫,因為第三季標記為 AI 部署用途的 Nexus 交換器訂單,季對季成長接近 50%。

  • Within campus networking, we had record orders in Q3, growing more than 25% year-over-year. We are seeing exceptionally strong demand for our next-generation switching, routing and wireless portfolio, which continues to ramp faster than prior product launches.

    在園區網路方面,第三季我們創下訂單新高,年增超過 25%。我們看到市場對新一代交換、路由與無線產品組合的需求異常強勁,其放量速度持續快於以往的產品上市。

  • We reported our highest ever wireless orders this quarter, growing more than 40% year-over-year. Customers are upgrading to modern Wi-Fi, evidenced by strong double-digit sequential growth in orders for Wi-Fi 7, making up half of the wireless mix in Q3. Research conducted recently with around 3,500 technology leaders across global enterprises confirms increased urgency to modernize campus and branch networks.

    本季我們回報史上最高的無線訂單,年增超過 40%。客戶正升級至現代化 Wi‑Fi,從 Wi‑Fi 7 訂單強勁的雙位數季對季成長可見一斑;Wi‑Fi 7 在第三季已占無線產品組合的一半。近期針對全球企業約 3,500 位科技領導者所進行的研究顯示,現代化園區與分支網路的急迫性正在提高。

  • With traffic across these networks expected to increase three times over the next three years because of AI. 93% of respondents are accelerating their network modernization plans. These findings support our belief that we are still at the start of a multi-year,-billion dollar campus refresh opportunity.

    由於 AI 的影響,預期未來三年這些網路的流量將增加三倍。93% 的受訪者正在加速其網路現代化計畫。這些發現支持我們的看法:我們仍處於一個為期多年的、數十億美元規模的園區更新(refresh)機會的起點。

  • The strong demand we seek for our technology is driven by our ability to deliver AI-native capabilities across our products, including weaving security into the fabric of the network and modernizing the operational stack of campus networks. Many of the world's leading companies are investing in Cisco's secure networking solutions for the high-performance connectivity, automated management, and robust security they need to scale their AI initiatives.

    我們所尋求的對我們技術的強勁需求,源自於我們能在各項產品中提供 AI 原生能力,包括將安全性編織進網路的核心架構之中,並使校園網路的營運堆疊現代化。全球許多領先企業正投資於思科的安全網路解決方案,以取得其推動 AI 計畫擴展所需的高效能連線能力、自動化管理與強健的安全性。

  • Our Cisco Unified Edge solution is also gaining traction, and we've already booked a single enterprise deal for over 1,200 units. Unified Edge brings together compute, networking, security, storage, and software to run AI applications at the edge where data is generated and decisions are made.

    我們的 Cisco Unified Edge 解決方案也正逐步獲得市場動能,我們已經簽下單一企業客戶超過 1,200 台的訂單。Unified Edge 將運算、網路、安全、儲存與軟體整合在一起,讓 AI 應用能在資料產生與決策發生的邊緣端運行。

  • Our industrial IoT portfolio also reported its strongest quarter ever in Q3 and has now grown in double-digits for eight consecutive quarters. We expect this demand to continue with the onshoring of manufacturing into the United States and as agentic and physical AI are expected to drive massive increases in network traffic.

    我們的工業物聯網(IoT)產品組合在第三季也繳出歷來最強勁的一季表現,且已連續八個季度維持雙位數成長。隨著製造業回流美國,以及代理式與實體 AI 預期將大幅推升網路流量,我們預期此需求將持續。

  • Now shifting to security, in Q3, our core security portfolio, excluding Splunk, saw double-digit order growth across new and refreshed products with strong double-digit order growth year-over-year in firewalls.

    接著談安全業務,在第三季,我們的核心安全產品組合(不含 Splunk)在新產品與更新產品上皆呈現雙位數訂單成長,其中防火牆的年對年訂單成長更是強勁的雙位數。

  • Additionally, over 1,000 new customers purchased our new products, including secure access, XDR, Hyper Shield and AI Defense in Q3, bringing the total of net new customers to approximately 5,000 since launch. The decline in our prior generation portfolio continues to offset the growth in our new and refreshed portfolio, but to a lesser extent than in the first half of the year.

    此外,第三季有超過 1,000 家新客戶購買了我們的新產品,包括安全存取、XDR、Hyper Shield 與 AI Defense,使自上市以來的淨新增客戶總數約達 5,000 家。我們上一代產品組合的下滑仍持續抵銷新產品與更新產品組合的成長,但抵銷程度較今年上半年為低。

  • Turning to Splunk. As expected, we continue to see an acceleration in the shift to cloud subscriptions and away from on-premise deals, creating a near-term drag on revenue growth as we previously outlined. We expect the mix of cloud business to continue to grow in Q4, while we are on track to exceed our target of 1,000 new customer logos for Splunk in fiscal year '26.

    接著談 Splunk。如預期所示,我們持續看到從地端(on-premise)交易加速轉向雲端訂閱,正如我們先前所說明,這在短期內對營收成長造成拖累。我們預期第四季雲端業務的組合占比將持續提升,同時我們也正按計畫在 2026 會計年度達成並超越 Splunk 新增 1,000 個新客戶標誌(logos)的目標。

  • AI is accelerating the pace of innovation for security defenders and adversaries, and we are innovating with speed and scale to help create an asymmetrical advantage for defenders. In March, we announced a major expansion of our secure AI factory with NVIDIA, giving customers a framework for deploying AI across their entire infrastructure, from data centers to local sites, eliminating the need to stitch together disconnected systems and embedding security from the start.

    AI 正在加速安全防禦者與攻擊者的創新步伐,而我們正以速度與規模持續創新,協助為防禦者建立不對稱優勢。今年三月,我們宣布與 NVIDIA 大幅擴展我們的安全 AI 工廠,為客戶提供一套在整體基礎設施(從資料中心到本地據點)部署 AI 的框架,免除拼接彼此分離系統的需求,並從一開始就內建安全性。

  • We have also introduced several new security innovations designed to protect the entire AI life cycle. Defense call is an open-source solution that helps customers safely deploy agents using common frameworks such as Openclaw, by enforcing guardrails and protecting against malicious behavior and attacks.

    我們也推出多項新的安全創新,旨在保護整個 AI 生命週期。Defense call 是一個開源解決方案,透過強制執行防護欄(guardrails)並防範惡意行為與攻擊,協助客戶使用如 Openclaw 等常見框架安全地部署代理(agents)。

  • To deliver an integrated Zero Trust solution for the agentic workforce, we introduced Zero Trust access for AI agents, and recently announced our intent to acquire Gallileo and Astris to expand our security and observability platform to include agentic identity, access management and behavior monitoring.

    為了為代理式勞動力提供整合式零信任(Zero Trust)解決方案,我們推出了針對 AI 代理的零信任存取,並近期宣布我們有意收購 Gallileo 與 Astris,以擴展我們的安全與可觀測性平台,納入代理式身分、存取管理與行為監控。

  • We also announced new capabilities for the agentic SOC and observability for AI to help detect and respond to new emerging threats at machine speed and scale. We are working collaboratively across the industry to help defend against AI-enabled threats and shape next-generation security capabilities.

    我們也宣布了針對代理式 SOC 與 AI 可觀測性的全新能力,以協助在機器速度與規模下偵測並回應新興威脅。我們正與產業夥伴協同合作,協助防禦 AI 賦能的威脅,並塑造下一代安全能力。

  • Cisco is a founding member of Project Glasswing and is participating in private testing of Anthropics cloud Mythos preview model, specifically designed for proactive cybersecurity defense testing. We are also part of OpenAI's trusted access for cyber program.

    思科是 Project Glasswing 的創始成員,並參與 Anthropic 雲端 Mythos 預覽模型的私密測試;該模型專為主動式資安防禦測試而設計。我們也參與 OpenAI 的「cyber」可信存取(trusted access)計畫。

  • Building on these initiatives, we announced earlier this week that Cisco is open sourcing the foundry security spec, a production-grade blueprint for building scalable agentic security evaluation systems using both available and new AI models.

    在這些計畫的基礎上,我們於本週稍早宣布,思科將開源 foundry security spec——這是一份可投入生產環境的藍圖,用於運用既有與新 AI 模型建置可擴展的代理式安全評估系統。

  • We are providing this blueprint to customers to accelerate their ability to take advantage of agentic AI and stay ahead of adversaries. Turning to our innovation in other areas. Cisco IQ, our unified AI power delivery engine for Cisco Services is now generally available with more than 250 customers already onboarded.

    我們將此藍圖提供給客戶,以加速其運用代理式 AI 的能力並領先對手。接著談我們在其他領域的創新。Cisco IQ——我們為 Cisco Services 打造的統一 AI 能力交付引擎——現已正式全面上市(GA),且已有超過 250 家客戶完成導入。

  • Cisco IQ provides customers with a real-time benchmark view, of Cisco assets and configurations in their environment, helping the future proof it against emerging architectural threats. We also continue to accelerate AI advancements internally for our teams, circuit, our proprietary AI assistant is now fully embedded in how Cisco operates with near universal adoption across our employee base and over 8 million total quarterly interactions.

    Cisco IQ 為客戶提供其環境中思科資產與組態的即時基準視圖,協助其面向未來,抵禦新興架構威脅。我們也持續在內部加速 AI 進展;Circuit——我們自有的 AI 助理——如今已全面嵌入思科的營運方式,在員工中幾乎普遍採用,且單季互動總量超過 800 萬次。

  • Circuit leverages a network of advanced third-party AI models, automatically choosing the best engine for every task or letting users make that choice. As a founding design partner with open AI on Codex, our engineers have been using it from the beginning.

    Circuit 運用一個由先進第三方 AI 模型組成的網路,會自動為每項任務選擇最佳引擎,或讓使用者自行選擇。作為 OpenAI Codex 的創始設計合作夥伴,我們的工程師從一開始就一直在使用它。

  • And as of this week, we have made Codex available to our entire product organization to enable them to build tools and reimagine new products at unprecedented speed. Finally, we are also proud of our incredible progress in quantum networking.

    而截至本週,我們已將 Codex 開放給整個產品組織使用,使其能以前所未有的速度打造工具並重新構想新產品。最後,我們也為在量子網路方面取得的重大進展感到自豪。

  • We recently introduced a working research prototype of the Cisco Universal Quantum switch designed to route and preserve quantum information between systems at room temperature and over standard telecom fiber.

    我們近期推出可運作的研究原型——Cisco 通用量子交換器(Cisco Universal Quantum switch),其設計可在室溫環境下並透過標準電信光纖,在系統之間路由並保存量子資訊。

  • By building this infrastructure now, we are helping to accelerate the entire quantum ecosystem that will power the data centers of the future. To ensure we are capturing the significant opportunities in silicon optics, security and AI, we announced a restructuring plan today to reallocate resources and allow us to invest in these key growth areas.

    透過現在就建置這些基礎設施,我們正協助加速整個量子生態系,為未來的資料中心提供動力。為確保我們能掌握矽光子(silicon optics)、安全與 AI 的重大機會,我們今天宣布一項重整計畫,以重新配置資源並讓我們能投資於這些關鍵成長領域。

  • These actions are building from a position of strength and focusing on the technologies that will accelerate our growth, deliver unmatched innovation to customers and partners and define our future. To summarize, our innovation pipeline is accelerating, and our latest offerings across the portfolio, we're seeing some of the fastest adoption in our history.

    這些行動是建立在我們的優勢基礎之上,並聚焦於能加速我們成長、為客戶與合作夥伴帶來無可匹敵創新、並定義我們未來的技術。總結來說,我們的創新管線正在加速,而我們在整體產品組合中的最新產品,正出現公司史上最快速的採用潮之一。

  • This is translating to broad-based record high demand for our technology which has never been more relevant to customers than it is in the AI era. This combination as well as the outstanding execution by our teams is driving record results and delivering value to our shareholders.

    這正轉化為對我們技術的廣泛且創紀錄的高需求;在 AI 時代,我們的技術對客戶而言從未像現在這般重要。這樣的組合,再加上團隊卓越的執行力,正推動創紀錄的成果並為股東創造價值。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Mark for more detail on the quarter and our outlook.

    接下來我把時間交給 Mark,請他更詳細說明本季表現與我們的展望。

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Chuck. I'm pleased to report we delivered another strong quarter in Q3 with both revenue and earnings per share coming in above the high end of our guidance. Total revenue for the quarter was a record at $15.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Non-GAAP net income was $4.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share was $1.06, both up 10%. Looking at our Q3 revenue in more detail.

    謝謝你,Chuck。我很高興報告,我們在第三季再度交出強勁的一季,營收與每股盈餘皆高於我們財測區間的上緣。本季總營收創下 158 億美元的紀錄,年對年成長 12%。非 GAAP 淨利為 42 億美元,非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 1.06 美元,兩者皆成長 10%。接著更詳細看看我們第三季的營收。

  • Total product revenue was $12.1 billion, up 17% and services revenue was $3.7 billion, down 1% year-over-year, mainly driven by the timing of service contract start dates. Product revenue growth was led by networking with growth accelerating to 20% year-over-year, driven by AI infrastructure and campus refresh.

    產品總營收為 121 億美元,成長 17%;服務營收為 37 億美元,年對年下滑 1%,主要受服務合約起始日期時點影響。產品營收成長由網路業務帶動,年對年成長加速至 20%,主要受 AI 基礎設施與校園網路更新換代(campus refresh)驅動。

  • We saw growth across the portfolio, led by double-digit growth in campus switching, data center switching, wireless and service provider routing. Security was flat, reflecting similar dynamics discussed in the last few quarters, with growth in new and refreshed products continuing to be offset by declines in prior generation products and the transition in our Splunk business from on-premise deals to cloud subscriptions. Collaboration was down 1% with declines in WebEx, partially offset by growth in devices.

    我們看到整體產品組合皆有成長,其中以校園交換器、資料中心交換器、無線與服務供應商路由的雙位數成長領先。安全業務持平,反映過去幾季討論過的類似動態:新產品與更新產品的成長持續被上一代產品下滑所抵銷,且 Splunk 業務也正從地端交易轉向雲端訂閱。協作業務下滑 1%,WebEx 下滑部分被裝置成長所抵銷。

  • Looking at our recurring metrics. Total RPO was $43.5 billion, up 4%. Product RPO grew 6%. Total ARR ended the quarter at $31.2 billion, an increase of 2%, with product ARR growth of 4%. Total subscription revenue was $7.8 billion and represented 49% of Cisco's total revenue.

    再看我們的經常性指標。總 RPO 為 435 億美元,成長 4%。產品 RPO 成長 6%。本季末總 ARR 為 312 億美元,增加 2%,其中產品 ARR 成長 4%。訂閱營收總額為 78 億美元,占思科總營收的 49%。

  • Total software revenue was $5.7 billion, up 1%. Q3 product orders were up 35% year-over-year, and the strength was broad-based. All geographic segments saw double-digit and accelerating product order growth, with Americas up 35%, EMEA up 39% and APJC up 25%.

    軟體總營收為57億美元,年增1%。第三季產品訂單年增35%,且成長動能廣泛。所有地理區隔的產品訂單皆呈現雙位數且加速成長,美洲年增35%、EMEA年增39%、APJC年增25%。

  • In terms of customer markets, the growth was led by triple-digit growth and service provider [cloud], we also saw strength in Public Sector and enterprise, which were up 27% and 18%, respectively. Total non-GAAP gross margin came in at 66%, down 260 basis points year-over-year.

    就客戶市場而言,成長主要由三位數成長以及服務供應商[雲端]所帶動;我們也看到公部門與企業市場表現強勁,分別年增27%與18%。非GAAP總毛利率為66%,較去年同期下降260個基點。

  • Non-GAAP product gross margin was 64.3%, down 330 basis points, primarily driven by negative impacts from mix and higher memory costs, partially offset by productivity improvements. Non-GAAP services gross margin was 71.6% and up 30 basis points. We continue our focus on enhancing profitability and driving financial discipline with non-GAAP operating margin at 34.2%, reflecting strong execution and operational efficiency. Our non-GAAP tax rate was 19% for the quarter.

    非GAAP產品毛利率為64.3%,下降330個基點,主要受產品組合不利影響與記憶體成本上升所致,部分由生產力提升所抵銷。非GAAP服務毛利率為71.6%,上升30個基點。我們持續聚焦提升獲利能力並以財務紀律推動營運改善;非GAAP營業利益率為34.2%,反映強勁的執行力與營運效率。本季非GAAP稅率為19%。

  • Shifting to the balance sheet. We ended Q3 with total cash, cash equivalents and investments of $16.6 billion. Operating cash flow was $3.8 billion, down 7% due to continued investments to meet growing demand, especially from AI infrastructure. From a capital allocation perspective, we returned $2.9 billion to our shareholders during the quarter, comprised of $1.7 billion for our quarterly cash dividend and $1.3 billion of share repurchases, bringing the year-to-date total to over $9 billion. There is $9.6 billion remaining under our share repurchase program.

    接著看資產負債表。第三季末,我們的現金、約當現金與投資總額為166億美元。營運現金流為38億美元,年減7%,主要因持續投資以滿足成長中的需求,尤其是AI基礎設施需求。就資本配置而言,本季我們回饋股東29億美元,其中17億美元為季度現金股利、13億美元為庫藏股回購,使年初至今合計超過90億美元。我們的股票回購計畫尚餘96億美元額度。

  • To summarize, we had another quarter of strong top and bottom line growth exceeding our expectations, driven by strong order growth and robust operating margin and demonstrating the power of our innovation engine.

    總結而言,我們本季再度實現強勁的營收與獲利成長,且超出預期;在強勁訂單成長與穩健營業利益率的帶動下,展現我們創新引擎的力量。

  • We remain focused on making strategic investments in innovation to capitalize on the significant growth opportunities that we see ahead. These investments will continue to be underpinned by our commitment to disciplined spend management. It is this powerful combination that continues to fuel strong cash flow and our ability to return significant value to our shareholders.

    我們仍專注於在創新上進行策略性投資,以把握我們所見的重大成長機會。這些投資將持續以我們對支出管理紀律的承諾為基礎。正是這種強大組合,持續推動強勁現金流,並讓我們能夠向股東回饋可觀價值。

  • Further, as Chuck mentioned, we are realigning our resources to better capture the opportunities around silicon, optics, security and AI. As part of our announced restructuring plan, we expect to recognize up to $1 billion of pretax charges with $450 million to be recognized in the Q4 FY26 and the remainder during FY27.

    此外,如Chuck所提,我們正在重新調整資源配置,以更好地掌握矽晶、光學、安全與AI相關機會。作為已宣布重組計畫的一部分,我們預期將認列最高達10億美元的稅前費用,其中4.5億美元將於FY26第四季認列,其餘將於FY27期間認列。

  • Turning to guidance. Please note, our Q4 and fiscal year FY26 guide assumes current tariffs and exemptions remain in place through the end of our fiscal 2026. Looking ahead, you can expect us to continue our focus on durable growth with financial discipline driving operating leverage and continued capital returns. For fiscal Q4, our guidance is as follows: We expect revenue to be in the range of $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion. We anticipate non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 65.5% to 66.5%.

    接著談展望。請注意,我們對第四季與FY26全年的指引假設目前的關稅與豁免將維持至我們FY26會計年度結束。展望未來,您可預期我們將持續聚焦於可持續的成長,以財務紀律推動營運槓桿,並持續進行資本回饋。針對會計年度第四季,我們的指引如下:預期營收介於167億至169億美元。預期非GAAP毛利率介於65.5%至66.5%。

  • Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the range of 34% to 35%. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to be in the range from $1.16 to $1.18. We are assuming a non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 19%. Cisco is positioned for its strongest year ever, as indicated in our guidance for fiscal year '26, which is as follows.

    預期非GAAP營業利益率介於34%至35%。預期非GAAP每股盈餘介於1.16至1.18美元;我們假設非GAAP有效稅率約為19%。從我們對會計年度'26的指引可見,Cisco有望迎來史上最強的一年,指引如下。

  • We expect revenue to be in the range of $62.8 billion to $63 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to range from $4.27 and to $4.29.

    我們預期營收介於628億至630億美元。預期非GAAP每股盈餘介於4.27至4.29美元。

  • Sami, let's now move into the Q&A.

    Sami,接下來我們進入問答環節。

  • Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

    Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

  • Thank you, Mark. (Oprtaot Instructions). Operator, can we move to the first analyst in the queue?

    謝謝你,Mark。(接線員指示)。接線員,我們可以請隊列中的第一位分析師提問嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Daryani, Evercore ISI.

    Amit Daryani,Evercore ISI。

  • Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

    Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

  • Congrats on a nice set of numbers here. I guess, Chuck, maybe just to start with the first question was, if I think about the back half guide, specifically the July quarter guide, it really implies that revenue growth is accelerating into the low teens, which is a nice bump up from the longer-term framework you guys have historically had.

    恭喜你們交出一組很不錯的數字。我想,Chuck,先從第一個問題開始:如果我看下半年指引,特別是7月那一季的指引,它其實意味著營收成長加速到低十幾%的區間,這相較於你們過去長期框架是一個不錯的上修。

  • Can you just talk about the durability of this double-digit growth? Are you starting to see enterprises, starting to upgrade the networking architecture and actually what's helping it? Or is this a pull forward?

    你能談談這種雙位數成長的持續性嗎?你們是否開始看到企業客戶開始升級網路架構,實際上是什麼在推動?還是這只是需求提前拉貨?

  • I'd love to just understand the durability within the back half. And maybe I'll ask my follow-up as well. It's really on Silicon One. I think you mentioned about a P200 design win for scale across. That's the first one you folks have talked about.

    我很想了解下半年成長的持續性。另外我也一併問追問:主要是關於Silicon One。我想你提到P200在scale-across方面拿下設計導入(design win)。這是你們第一次談到這個。

  • Can you just spend some time on when customers choose Silicon One versus other offerings or merchant offerings that are out there, what is the value proposition that Cisco is providing that's so attractive to them? And how big and how far is the scale from a market perspective for you folks?

    你能否多花點時間說明:客戶在選擇Silicon One相較於其他方案或市面上的商用晶片(merchant)方案時,Cisco提供了什麼樣的價值主張,讓他們覺得如此有吸引力?從市場角度來看,對你們而言這個規模有多大、可延伸到多遠?

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Amit. I'm going to let Mark start on the durability of the growth question, and I'll comment and then I'll take the Silicon One P200 question.

    謝謝你,Amit。我先請Mark回答成長持續性的問題,我再補充,接著我會回答Silicon One P200的問題。

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, sure. So thanks -- so I think that, obviously, we're seeing a lot of tailwinds and very pleased with the growth that we're seeing Q4, as you mentioned, 14.5% top line growth and even higher than that on the bottom line. So really good signs. I think as you look to next year, we'll look to talk in more details and specifics as we close out FY26, and we'll give you a more firm guide. But in terms of the durability, I think there's a couple of things to be thinking about that might help you as you look at FY27.

    好的,當然。謝謝——我想很明顯地,我們正看到許多順風因素,也對我們在第四季看到的成長非常滿意;如你提到的,營收年增14.5%,而獲利端的成長甚至更高。所以這些都是非常好的訊號。我想展望明年,我們會在FY26結束時提供更詳細、更具體的說明,並給出更明確的指引。但就持續性而言,我認為有幾點值得思考,或許能幫助你在看FY27時做判斷。

  • I think the first thing is just it's probably -- so just kind of separating the AI hyperscale business from the sort of rest of the portfolio, if you will. I think on the AI hyperscale side, it's probably reasonable to expect that we would recognize at least $6 billion of revenue in FY27. Again, we'll have a more formal guide for you in 90 days. The rest of the portfolio, I think it's reasonable to assume it grows in line with our long-term model. And remember, the long-term model that we gave you initially that included all the AI hyperscale opportunity as well.

    第一點是——大致上可以把AI超大規模(hyperscale)業務與其餘產品組合稍微區分開來看。在AI hyperscale這一端,我認為合理的預期是我們在FY27至少可認列60億美元營收。同樣地,我們會在90天後給你更正式的指引。至於其餘產品組合,我認為合理的假設是其成長與我們的長期模型一致。而且請記得,我們最初給出的長期模型其實也已包含所有AI hyperscale機會。

  • And so I think the balance of the portfolio could grow, and it's reasonable to assume it will grow in line with that guide.

    因此,我認為產品組合的其餘部分是可以成長的,而且合理地假設它會依照該指引的步調成長。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Hang on, I need to answer the second question. So on the Silicon One, the P200 wind in particular, so let me just clarify a little bit about this. So during Q3, we were awarded by two different hyperscalers, P200 design wins, which is our product, our silicon that goes into our product that is used for scale across applications. So these were our first scale across wins. Just in addition to that, in the first week or two of this quarter, we won a third hyperscalers P200 design win for scale across as well.

    等一下,我需要回答第二個問題。關於Silicon One,特別是P200的這個design win,我先稍微釐清一下。在第三季期間,我們獲得兩家不同的hyperscaler授予P200的設計導入,P200是我們的產品——我們的矽晶,會用在我們的產品中,並用於scale-across應用。這些是我們首次在scale-across拿下的勝利。此外,在本季的第一或第二週,我們也再拿下第三家hyperscaler的P200 scale-across設計導入。

  • So we're really excited about the uptake there and really pleased with the work the teams are doing on silicon front. I'd tell you, if you look at the Silicon One, the reason we're winning is because of Silicon One. I've said repeatedly on these calls over the last couple of years that as we move to the future, that if you don't have silicon, you're going to struggle to be relevant to the hyperscalers.

    因此,我們對那邊的採用情況感到非常振奮,也對團隊在矽晶(silicon)方面所做的工作非常滿意。我跟你說,如果你看 Silicon One,我們之所以能贏,就是因為 Silicon One。過去幾年我在這些電話會議上反覆說過,隨著我們走向未來,如果你沒有自研矽晶,你將很難在超大規模雲端客戶(hyperscalers)面前保持相關性。

  • And I think that's what we're seeing. And so when you look at the number we put up and the percentage of that, roughly half is systems, which is Silicon One, it's a massive differentiator for us.

    我認為這正是我們所看到的。因此,當你看我們交出的數字以及其中的占比時,大約一半來自系統,而那就是 Silicon One,這對我們而言是非常巨大的差異化優勢。

  • It also we'll talk about further on -- in the Q&A session, I'm sure, but it also gives us a lot more control over the supply chain and allows us to be a little more confident in our ability to deliver to our customers. So we're really pleased with where we are.

    另外我們稍後也會再談到——我相信在問答環節會提到——它也讓我們對供應鏈有更多掌控,並使我們能對交付客戶的能力更有信心。所以我們對目前的進展非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tal Liani, Bank of America.

    Tal Liani,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Tal Liani - Analyst

    Tal Liani - Analyst

  • Welcome back to 1999. It's great to see the stock going up and order is 35% off, that's great. But I do have a question about orders, and I'm looking at it the other way. Non-AI orders grew 19%. That's excluding hyperscalers.

    歡迎回到 1999 年。很高興看到股價上漲、訂單成長 35%,這很棒。但我確實有一個關於訂單的問題,我想從另一個角度來看。非 AI 訂單成長 19%。這是不包含超大規模雲端客戶(hyperscalers)的。

  • Now the non-AI the environment is not that better this quarter versus last quarter. And I'm wondering what drives it? And are you concerned that enterprises -- non-enterprise -- non-AI customers are buying ahead of time because of supply constraints because of difficulties to get products on time. Just a question about the sustainability of this kind of growth.

    現在,這一季相較上一季,非 AI 的環境並沒有好到那麼多。我想知道是什麼在驅動?你們是否擔心企業——非企業——非 AI 客戶因為供應受限、產品難以及時取得,而提前下單?就是想問這種成長的可持續性。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Tal. So what do we see happening right now that we think is contributing to the acceleration. So first and foremost, we see continued expansion of focus on AI in the enterprise. We see customers now preparing for inferencing in agentic applications. And in those cases, the network is incredibly important.

    謝謝你,Tal。那我們現在看到什麼正在發生、我們認為促成加速的因素是什麼?首先也是最重要的,我們看到企業端對 AI 的投入焦點持續擴大。我們看到客戶正在為代理式(agentic)應用中的推論(inferencing)做準備。在這些情境下,網路極其重要。

  • And moving the bits around with low latency is super important and customers are realizing that they have to modernize. That's why we saw our enterprise data center switching business up over 40% in orders for the quarter. And that's just pure enterprise build-out. So we see that accelerating. Second is leading it through this is the monetization, but also we believe customers are preparing for increased levels of cybersecurity threats.

    而以低延遲搬移資料位元(bits)非常關鍵,客戶也意識到他們必須進行現代化升級。這就是為什麼我們看到本季企業資料中心交換器業務的訂單成長超過 40%。而那完全是企業端的建置擴張。所以我們看到這正在加速。第二個帶動因素是變現(monetization),但同時我們也相信客戶正在為更高程度的資安威脅做準備。

  • We'll talk a little bit about [Methos] in a bit. But I think there are some customers that are starting to think through the implications and what it is they need to do to be prepared for that. And obviously, we continue to see the design wins in the hyperscale space and continued adoption of our both silicon-based products as well as our optics.

    我們稍後會談一點 [Methos]。但我認為有些客戶開始思考其影響,以及他們需要做什麼來做好準備。而且很明顯地,我們持續看到在超大規模領域的設計導入(design wins),以及我們以矽晶為基礎的產品與光學(optics)持續被採用。

  • So that's sort of how we see things happening. And Mark is going to talk a little bit about some of the numbers I also don't think you'll see that our lead times on the traditional networking side.

    所以這大致就是我們對目前情況的看法。Mark 也會談一些數字;我也不認為你會看到我們在傳統網路那一側的交期(lead times)……

  • Mark, keep me honest, but they're not extreme right now. So you want to talk a little bit about the numbers, Mark?

    Mark,請你幫我確認一下,但目前並不算極端。Mark,你要不要談談一些數字?

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Tal. So I think that -- well, we've gotten a lot of questions on. And certainly, the write-ups leading into earnings were around pull ahead or pull forwards. And first off, let me just say that I think that it's reasonable to assume that there is some level of pull ahead into Q3.

    好的。謝謝你,Tal。所以我想——嗯,我們收到很多相關問題。而且,財報前的報告也都在談提前拉貨(pull ahead / pull forwards)。首先我想說,我認為合理的假設是:確實有一定程度的提前拉貨發生在第三季(Q3)。

  • I do think it's very difficult to speculate exactly how much, but we believe it was a very modest amount that was in Q3. And I'll give you three data points as to why we think that. First of all, when you cited this in terms of the underlying ex web scale growth rate, our Q2 order growth rate was at 10%. And then our Q3 order growth rate, again, for ex webscale was at 19%. So you saw about nine points of acceleration.

    我確實認為要精確推測到底有多少非常困難,但我們相信第三季的提前拉貨幅度非常有限。我給你三個數據點,說明我們為什麼這麼認為。第一,針對你提到的、扣除 web scale(超大規模)後的基礎成長率,我們第二季(Q2)的訂單成長率是 10%。而第三季(Q3)的訂單成長率,同樣在扣除 webscale 後,是 19%。所以你看到大約 9 個百分點的加速。

  • And if we do the math just on the price increases actually that we put in place, that actually accounts for about half of that acceleration, about four to five points worth of additional growth that you'd see, same units but at higher prices. The second data point I'd give you is just -- we always look at pipeline pull forwards, so future quarters.

    如果我們只就已實施的漲價來做計算,那其實就能解釋其中大約一半的加速,也就是額外約 4 到 5 個百分點的成長——同樣的出貨量,但價格更高。第二個數據點是——我們一向會看管線(pipeline)的提前拉動,也就是未來季度的案子。

  • And of course, we always do some of that. If you look at the Q4 pipeline that we pulled forward into Q3 and closed, we actually did not notice really any difference or any incremental pipeline that was pulled forward from Q3 into -- sorry, from Q4 into Q3 than if you looked at the same time period a year ago. And the third data point I'd just give you is really around the Q4 pipeline itself.

    當然,我們一直都會做一些這樣的事情。如果你看我們把第四季(Q4)的管線提前拉到第三季(Q3)並成交的部分,我們其實沒有注意到有任何差異,或是相較一年前同一期間,沒有看到有額外、增量的管線從 Q4 被拉到 Q3——抱歉,是從 Q4 拉到 Q3。第三個數據點則是關於 Q4 管線本身。

  • So the pipeline is very healthy, very good year-over-year growth. And what happened was, if you look at week one through week 13 of Q3, so we're talking about the Q4 pipeline, though. We saw no degradation to that Q4 pipeline from the beginning of Q3, all the way to the end. And in fact, it actually grew as we went through the quarter. So all told, again, I think it's hard to speculate exactly how much.

    也就是說,管線非常健康,年對年成長非常好。而發生的情況是,如果你看第三季(Q3)的第 1 週到第 13 週——我們談的是 Q4 的管線——我們從 Q3 一開始到結束,都沒有看到 Q4 管線有任何惡化。事實上,它在季度進行中還持續成長。所以總體而言,我再次強調,要精確推測到底有多少確實很難。

  • It's reasonable to assume there's some, but we think it's a modest amount.

    合理的假設是有一些,但我們認為幅度不大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.

    Ben Reitzes,Melius Research。

  • Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst

    Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst

  • I kind of make a rule to only congratulate management teams when they're making people money, and it's worthy of a congratulations here. So thanks for the question. I wanted to talk about the comment Mark made around the non-AI portion growing in line with the model next year, 2% to 5%, I believe, is what you said at your Analyst Day. Maybe I got the wrong number. Maybe I'm too low.

    我有個規則:只有在管理團隊真的讓大家賺到錢時我才會恭喜,而這次確實值得恭喜。所以謝謝讓我提問。我想談談 Mark 對非 AI 部分的評論:你說明年會依照模型成長,我記得你們在分析師日(Analyst Day)提到的是 2% 到 5%。也許我記錯數字了。也許我估得太低。

  • But I would think that on the non-AI portion, the price increases would you have a tough comp by the 3Q, the price increases would pretty much get you above that. And so I just wanted you guys to dissect that a little bit more if the non-AI -- when you talk about the long-term model is indeed two to five and don't the price increases get you above that given everything we're seeing and these strong trends.

    但我會認為,就非 AI 部分而言,到了第三季(3Q)漲價會讓比較基期(comp)變得更難,但漲價本身應該就足以讓你們高於那個區間。所以我想請你們再更細緻地拆解一下:如果你們談的長期模型,非 AI 的確是 2% 到 5%,那在我們看到的一切與這些強勁趨勢之下,漲價難道不會讓你們高於那個區間嗎?

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Ben, it's Mark. So I think that in terms of the long-term model, it was actually 4% to 6% in totality. So the 2% to 5%, I think, was on the networking side alone. We had a much higher growth rate actually on security and observability, for instance. And so what we're really just saying is, first off, we'll give you a much more detailed and specific guide as we get through FY26.

    Ben,我是 Mark。我想就長期模型而言,整體其實是 4% 到 6%。所以 2% 到 5% 我想是只針對網路(networking)那一側。例如在資安(security)與可觀測性(observability)方面,我們其實有更高的成長率。因此我們真正要說的是:首先,等我們進入 FY26 的過程中,我們會給你更詳細、更具體的指引(guide)。

  • So in 90 days, we'll really talk more specifically about it. But I was just saying that, that 4% to 6% that absent AI hyperscale opportunity that you could expect for us to grow in line with that. And again, as you mentioned, we will have some tougher comps as we go into next year. The price increases should help us as well, and we'll talk more in a quarter from now.

    所以在 90 天後,我們會更具體地再談這件事。但我剛才的意思是,在不考慮 AI 超大規模機會的情況下,那個 4% 到 6% 的區間,你可以預期我們的成長會大致與之同步。而且如你所提到的,進入明年時我們也會面臨一些更具挑戰性的比較基期。價格上調也應該會對我們有所幫助,我們會在一季後再多談一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo.

    Aaron Rakers,富國銀行。

  • Aaron Rakers - Analyst

    Aaron Rakers - Analyst

  • I'll ask them both at the same time. I guess the first question is going back on the supply chain. One of your competitors recently alluded to just things getting even tighter and even throughout the comment of possible de-commits. I'm curious if you could give an overview of like your assessment of what's going on in the overall supply chain.

    我會同時問兩個問題。我想第一個問題是回到供應鏈。你們的一位競爭對手最近提到情況變得更緊,甚至在評論中提到可能會有取消承諾(de-commits)。我想請你概述一下,你對整體供應鏈現況的評估是什麼。

  • Maybe beyond just memory as far as what you're doing to get allocation of wafers for Silicon One, or anything that you can share on that front? And then I guess my quick follow-up is that you've got a very significant increase implied in your AI order intake into fiscal 4Q, up from $1.9 billion.

    也許不只記憶體,包含你們為 Silicon One 取得晶圓配額所做的事,或任何你能分享的內容?然後我想快速追問一下,你們在 AI 訂單接單量上,財年第四季隱含有非常顯著的增加,從 19 億美元往上。

  • I guess, if my math is right, close to $3.7 billion. Just curious what's driving that? Is that the scale across wins? Are you starting to maybe see scale up build in your pipeline. I'm just curious if you can unpack that pretty notable jump into this next quarter.

    如果我算得沒錯,大概接近 37 億美元。想請問是什麼在驅動這個成長?是因為各項贏單的規模擴大嗎?你們是否開始在管線中看到擴建(scale up)的規模?我想請你拆解一下,為什麼下一季會有這麼明顯的跳升。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I'll make a quick comment, and then, Mark, you can talk about supply chain stuff that we've done. So I just want to remind you, this is one of the big advantages of Silicon One. It's one of the big advantages. We control so much more of our supply chain, and we don't have the number of dependencies that others may have.

    是的,我先簡短說幾句,然後 Mark 你可以談談我們在供應鏈方面做的事情。我想提醒大家,這是 Silicon One 的一個重大優勢,也是其中一個最大的優勢。我們能掌控更多的供應鏈環節,而且不像其他人可能有那麼多的依賴關係。

  • But Mark, do you want to go through some of the -- I think you should talk a little bit about some of the actions we've taken to and then how we're feeling and the fact that we haven't really seen any de-commits at all. Do you want to go through that?

    但 Mark,你要不要談談——我覺得你應該稍微說一下我們採取的一些行動、我們目前的感受,以及我們其實完全沒有看到任何取消承諾(de-commits)。你要不要說明一下?

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, that's right. Happy to, Chuck. So yes, I think that, as Chuck was saying, I think the fact that we design our own silicon really gives us greater control end to end. I mean the fact that we're directly managing wafers, substrates, assembly and test really gives us much more control over the supply chain, if you will. In terms of silicon, we've secured our supply through the calendar year '26 for the next 8 months anyway.

    是的,沒錯。很樂意,Chuck。所以是的,我認為如 Chuck 所說,我們自行設計晶片這件事,確實讓我們在端到端上有更高的掌控力。也就是說,我們直接管理晶圓、基板、封裝與測試,確實讓我們對供應鏈有更大的控制力。就晶片供應而言,我們已確保供應可覆蓋到 2026 年曆年,至少未來 8 個月是沒問題的。

  • And then normal negotiations are active and underway on calendar '27. I think if you look at memory, there's been a number of initiatives. There's 20-plus programs that we put into place that are active to reduce the memory utilization across the portfolio. An example of which is in the wireless space, you'll see products that will become orderable in Q4 that will actually require 50% less memory. And so that's a big positive.

    而針對 2027 年曆年的正常談判也已在積極進行中。如果看記憶體方面,我們推動了多項措施。我們已啟動並在執行中的方案超過 20 個,用以降低整體產品組合的記憶體使用量。例如在無線領域,你會看到在第四季可下單的產品,實際上將需要少 50% 的記憶體。這是很大的正面因素。

  • I think that the other thing is we're investing in new capacity. You've probably seen the announcement that we made on our strategic investment in a in a three year supply agreement with them as well. That's going to really help us. The fact that we are also moving a number of different -- in a number of different places from DDR4 to DDR5 and those conversion projects that are underway, also a really good thing. Overall, inventory and advanced purchase commitments, we're really able to lean in there given our financial strength.

    我認為另一點是我們正在投資新增產能。你們可能看過我們宣布的消息:我們進行了一項策略性投資,同時也與對方簽訂了為期三年的供應協議。這將會對我們有很大幫助。此外,我們也在多個地方把 DDR4 轉換到 DDR5,這些轉換專案正在進行中,也是一件非常好的事。整體而言,在庫存與預先採購承諾方面,憑藉我們的財務實力,我們確實能更積極投入。

  • So those in totality, $6.7 billion increase just in the last 90 days, so up 48%. When you look at it year-over-year, again, inventory and advanced purchase commitments are up $11.6 billion year-over-year.

    綜合以上,僅在過去 90 天內就增加了 67 億美元,成長 48%。若以年對年來看,同樣地,庫存與預先採購承諾年對年增加了 116 億美元。

  • So I think overall, whether it's across silicon substrates, memory, photonics, PCBs, power, we're securing long-term agreements where it's possible. We're working with our sub-tier suppliers, and we're building strategic inventory. So a big differentiator there.

    所以我認為整體來看,不論是晶片、基板、記憶體、光子、PCB、電源,我們都在可行之處簽訂長期協議。我們也與次階供應商合作,並建立策略性庫存。因此這是一個很大的差異化因素。

  • And I just want to reiterate that what Chuck said, we did not see any de-commits in the quarter.

    我也想再次強調 Chuck 所說的:我們在本季沒有看到任何取消承諾(de-commits)。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And then on your second question about what's driving the AI orders, the significant AI orders? I mean most of what we will see in Q4. First of all, I just want to remind you, we've said that this business is nonlinear. And if you look at the chart that we put in with the prepared remarks, it really does indicate that Q3 was 1.9%, a little lower than Q2, but then Q4 accelerate.

    是的。然後關於你第二個問題:是什麼在驅動 AI 訂單、這些顯著的 AI 訂單?我的意思是,我們在第四季會看到的大多數情況。首先我想提醒你,我們一直說這個業務是非線性的。如果你看我們在事先準備的講稿中放的那張圖,確實顯示第三季是 19 億(美元),比第二季略低,但第四季會加速。

  • So there's a lot of timing dependencies here that so just remember that this is nonlinear as we go to the future. I mean these are Silicon One wins. Half of the wins were in optics. Our Optics business really accelerated. The Acacia business is on fire.

    所以這裡有很多時點上的依賴因素;請記得,往後這會是非線性的。這些都是 Silicon One 的贏單。其中一半的贏單是在光學。我們的光學業務確實加速了。Acacia 業務非常火熱。

  • We had -- it's a lot of scale out, primarily scale out. We just got the word on scale across. So there's actually no scale across in the numbers yet. We would expect of those 5 design wins that we talk about. We'll begin to see some early orders in Q4.

    我們有——主要是大量的橫向擴展(scale out),以 scale out 為主。我們剛收到關於跨域擴展(scale across)的消息。所以目前數字裡其實還沒有任何 scale across。就我們提到的那 5 個設計贏單而言,我們預期會在第四季開始看到一些早期訂單。

  • And -- but not at scale until we move into fiscal year '27. So I think it's a byproduct of just a lot of great relationship work that the teams have been doing over the years. They love our silicon. They love the supply, and they love our optics, and it's -- that's really it. So we just intend on continuing to work really hard and deliver what they need.

    而且——但要到我們進入 2027 財年才會達到規模化。所以我認為這是多年來團隊持續建立良好關係所帶來的成果。客戶喜歡我們的晶片。他們喜歡我們的供應能力,也喜歡我們的光學產品,而——大概就是這樣。所以我們會繼續非常努力地工作,交付他們所需要的東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Meta Marshall, Morgan Stanley.

    Meta Marshall,摩根士丹利。

  • Meta Marshall - Analyst

    Meta Marshall - Analyst

  • Maybe building on that last question, just between what you're laying out for fiscal '26 and fiscal '27 AI revenue, the AI orders certainly don't have the longest duration. But just wanted to get a sense of what kind of duration increase you're seeing in those orders just given concerns around supply chain that may not be as applicable to you, but kind of definitely apply along the chain.

    也許延續上一個問題,介於你們對 2026 財年與 2027 財年 AI 營收的規劃之間,AI 訂單當然不一定具有最長的期間。但我想了解的是,考量到供應鏈的疑慮——這些疑慮可能不太適用於你們,但在供應鏈各環節確實存在——你們在這些訂單上看到的期間(duration)有什麼樣的延長趨勢?

  • And then on a second question, just any way to kind of split the gross margin headwind on product just between memory and product mix.

    然後第二個問題是,產品毛利率的逆風,有沒有辦法大致拆分一下:記憶體因素與產品組合(product mix)各占多少?

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • You want to talk this, Mark?

    Mark,你要談這個嗎?

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Mark. So I think just first, just to hit it right up front. I think in terms of duration, we're not really seeing anything. We've always said these orders are nonlinear, and they plan well in advance.

    是的。謝謝,Mark。所以我想先直接切入重點。就期間(duration)而言,我們其實沒有看到什麼變化。我們一直說這些訂單是非線性的,而且他們會提前很久做規劃。

  • And and really nothing new there. On the gross margin side, I think the teams have done a fantastic job there. We saw gross margins in Q3 at 66%, which is right where we expected, right, where we planned for and right at the midpoint of our guide. And we do believe the gross margins have stabilized. So if you look at that, it's reflected in our Q4 guide as well with the midpoint, again, right at 66%.

    而且其實也沒有什麼新意。在毛利率方面,我認為團隊做得非常出色。我們看到第三季毛利率為 66%,正如我們預期的那樣、也符合我們的規劃,並且正好落在指引區間的中點。我們也確實相信毛利率已經趨於穩定。所以如果你看這點,在我們第四季指引中也有所反映,其中點同樣正好是 66%。

  • And as I mentioned a few things in terms of the 20-plus programs that we have going on around memory utilization, the teams are doing a great job there, the DDR4 to DDR5 conversion. Also here, there's a number of things that we talked about last quarter that we've also put into place raising prices, obviously, that you mentioned.

    另外,如我提到的,我們在記憶體使用率方面有 20 多個專案在進行,團隊在這方面做得很棒,包括 DDR4 到 DDR5 的轉換。此外,我們上季談到的一些事項也已經落地,例如調漲價格,當然你也提到了。

  • But also the adjusting terms and conditions and then really leaning in and leveraging our financial strength on the advanced purchase commitments, and you saw those go up about $6 billion in just the last 90 days. I might just also just mention that beyond gross margin, we're focused on driving operating leverage. And we're growing bottom line faster than the top line. You see that in the Q4 guide.

    同時也在調整條款與條件,並且真正加大力度、運用我們的財務實力來推動預先採購承諾(advanced purchase commitments);你也看到在過去 90 天內這項金額增加了約 60 億美元。我也想補充,除了毛利率之外,我們也專注於提升營運槓桿。我們讓淨利端的成長速度快於營收端。你可以在第四季指引中看到這點。

  • You also see it in the full year for FY26 and what we guided as well. And a key path for operating leverage is a keen focus on the operating margins themselves. We saw record operating margin dollars in Q3. We're focused on delivering 34% operating Inc. as a percentage of revenue.

    你也能在 FY26 全年以及我們所給出的指引中看到。而營運槓桿的一個關鍵路徑,是對營業利益率本身保持高度聚焦。我們在第三季創下營業利益(以金額計)新高。我們專注於把營業利益(Operating Inc.)維持在營收的 34%。

  • And again, you've seen that every quarter in FY26. You see it for the full year as well. And we're able to make some trade-offs. So longer term, if we do see some pressure on gross margin, I think that there's a number of things that we can do. Just to give you an example that we saw in Q3, while we had gross margins declining 2.6%.

    而且你在 FY26 的每一季都看到了這點。你在全年也能看到。我們也能做出一些取捨。因此從長期來看,如果我們確實看到毛利率有些壓力,我認為我們有很多事情可以做。舉例來說,在第三季我們看到毛利率下滑 2.6%。

  • If you look at OpEx, actually, it also declined more than 2% as a percentage of revenue. A year ago, it was 34.1%, and it was 31.9% this quarter. So I think there's going to be businesses we get into that have different scale. And so there's a lot we can do to protect that 34% open.

    如果你看營運費用(OpEx),其實它占營收比重也下降了超過 2%。一年前是 34.1%,而本季是 31.9%。所以我認為我們會進入一些規模特性不同的業務。因此我們有很多方式可以保護這個 34% 的營業利潤率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Vogt, UBS.

    David Vogt,瑞銀。

  • David Vogt - Analyst

    David Vogt - Analyst

  • I'll give my two at the same time. So Chuck, you talked briefly about the security and the software portfolio. I know it's been kind of a thorn in the side of the company. But can you speak to kind of how you're thinking about that business as it kind of improves going forward relative to sort of the old portfolio versus the new? And sort of how do we think about the impact of the Splunk model transition as we go into fiscal '27?

    我一次問兩個問題。Chuck,你簡要談到了資安與軟體產品組合。我知道這一直有點像公司的一根刺。但你能否談談你如何看待這項業務在未來改善的路徑,特別是相對於舊產品組合與新產品組合?以及我們該如何看待 Splunk 商業模式轉型在進入 2027 會計年度時的影響?

  • And as customers continuously move from license to subscription, I know you've given sort of a range in terms of where you think that portfolio could end up from an ARR growth rate perspective next year. And I just would love an update on that point. And then I'll give you my second question around margins. So I think I heard you guys say margins are kind of stable, which makes a lot of sense. How much of that margin dynamic is largely driven by the mix to hardware?

    另外,隨著客戶持續從授權(license)轉向訂閱(subscription),我知道你們曾就明年該產品組合可能落在的 ARR 成長率給過一個區間。我很希望你能就這點提供最新看法。然後我第二個問題是關於毛利率。我想我聽到你們說毛利率大致穩定,這很合理。這種毛利率變化有多少主要是由硬體組合占比所驅動?

  • I know you didn't give specifics. But obviously, if we expect $6 billion of AI revenue next year, up from $4 billion. What are the offsets that you're thinking about to help mitigate sort of that product mix versus effectively software and security mix, if that's going to grow 50% next year from a baseline of $4 billion this year.

    我知道你們沒有提供具體細節。但顯然,如果我們預期明年 AI 營收為 60 億美元、由今年的 40 億美元上升。你們在思考哪些抵銷因素,來緩解產品組合偏向硬體所帶來的影響;相對地,若軟體與資安組合明年將從今年 40 億美元的基礎成長 50%,你們如何看待兩者的平衡?

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, David. So on the security front, so we actually saw some pretty good improvement during the quarter. So the new and refresh stuff continue to grow in double digits. We saw, obviously, the legacy stuff is still a drag, but it wasn't near the drag as it was in the first half of the year. And -- but what we really have seen in the last few quarters, in particular, is strength in our firewall business.

    謝謝你,David。在資安方面,我們本季其實看到相當不錯的改善。新的與更新(refresh)的產品持續以雙位數成長。很明顯,舊產品仍然是拖累,但拖累程度已不像上半年那麼大。不過我們在過去幾季、尤其是近期,真正看到的是防火牆業務的強勁表現。

  • And last quarter, we saw very strong double-digit order growth in firewalls. So I think last call, I said we would exit this fiscal year approaching double-digit revenue growth on the traditional -- on the organic Cisco security portfolio.

    而在上一季,我們看到防火牆訂單以非常強勁的雙位數成長。所以我想在上次電話會議我說過,我們會在本會計年度結束時,讓傳統的——也就是有機的 Cisco 資安產品組合——營收成長接近雙位數。

  • And I think we're heading in that direction, and I feel good about us actually making that happen. I think we'll continue to just -- quarter after quarter, we're going to see slow, steady improvement there. And so I'm actually -- the firewall results are really giving me a lot of optimism right now.

    我認為我們正朝那個方向前進,而且我對實現這點很有信心。我想我們會持續——一季接一季——看到緩慢但穩定的改善。所以我其實——防火牆的結果現在讓我非常樂觀。

  • We've got a several quarter run of big win rates, and we're feeling good about that. So -- and then on Splunk FY27, I think it's going to be highly contingent upon what happens with this cloud versus on-prem mix? Does it continue to -- do we see a continued shift, I think we saw another two or three points during the quarter in Q3 from where it was in Q2.

    我們已經連續好幾季維持很高的贏單率(win rates),我們對此感覺良好。至於 Splunk 在 FY27,我認為將高度取決於雲端與地端(on-prem)組合會如何發展。它是否會持續——我們在第三季相較第二季又看到大約兩到三個百分點的變化。

  • And if it stabilizes, then we'll lap the compares, obviously, and then next year it shouldn't be quite the drag. But we just have to see how that mix evolves.

    如果它能穩定下來,那麼我們就會跨過可比基期(lap the compares),而明年顯然就不會有那麼大的拖累。但我們必須觀察這個組合如何演變。

  • Mark, any comments on that? And if not, you can take the margin question.

    Mark,你對此有什麼補充嗎?如果沒有,你可以回答毛利率的問題。

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. No, I think you hit it on the Splunk transition. In terms of gross margins, the two biggest factors there, David, are certainly mix and memory. The bigger factor actually is mix, certainly. As you look at the growth of the business, you've got hardware really accelerating, which we're very pleased with, approximately 30% growth where you've got software at 1%.

    有。不,我認為你對 Splunk 轉型的重點已經講到了。就毛利率而言,David,最大的兩個因素當然是產品組合與記憶體。其中更大的因素其實是產品組合,確實如此。當你看業務成長時,硬體正在明顯加速,我們對此非常滿意,約 30% 的成長;而軟體是 1%。

  • So it tells you that our hardware margins are actually really good. And it also tells you that the supply chain team that we have is world class. I think that the productivity improvements that they continue to show are substantial. I've gone through a few of those already on this call. But also as you get more scale and revenue continues to grow at a sizable pace, there's some benefit that goes to the gross margin line as well.

    這告訴你我們的硬體毛利其實非常好。也告訴你我們的供應鏈團隊是世界級的。我認為他們持續展現的生產力改善幅度很可觀。我在這通電話會議中已經提過其中幾項。此外,隨著規模擴大、營收以相當可觀的速度成長,毛利率端也會獲得一些好處。

  • And that's been a key factor in us being able to really stabilize gross margins.

    而這一直是我們能夠真正穩定毛利率的一個關鍵因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.

    Samik Chatterjee,摩根大通。

  • Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

    Samik Chatterjee - Analyst

  • Congrats on the results. Chuck, maybe to start off, earlier on the call, you did mention sort of being part of Project Glass wing. And so I wanted to get your thoughts around what you're seeing in terms of implications on your business from method how do we think about sort of implications to your security business overall in the long run?

    恭喜這次的業績。Chuck,或許先從這裡開始,你在電話會議前段提到你們某種程度上是 Project Glass wing 的一部分。因此我想聽聽你對此的看法:你看到這對你們業務可能帶來哪些影響?從方法論的角度,我們該如何思考長期而言對你們整體資安業務的影響?

  • When do we start to see maybe certain sort of drivers to your security business from that front? And then, Mark, for you, with the restructuring that you're announcing today, should we think about the operating leverage in the business to be marginally better next year compared to what we saw this year?

    我們大概什麼時候會開始看到,從那個面向對你們的資安業務帶來某些驅動因素?另外,Mark,針對你們今天宣布的重整,我們是否應該預期明年的業務營運槓桿,會比今年看到的情況略為更好?

  • How should we think about sort of how much of those savings get reinvested in the business, and how to think about operating leverage next year?

    我們應該如何看待這些節省下來的成本有多少會再投資回業務,以及如何看待明年的營運槓桿?

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Samik, and I appreciate the kind words. On Glass wing, yes, I think the implications .So first and foremost, we're using it meaningfully to test our own code. And I think you're just going to see us accelerate patches and things of that nature out to our customers. So that's all positive. From a business implication perspective, which I think is a crux of your question, I think there will clearly be security implications for us, and I think it could -- there could be opportunities for us for sure.

    謝謝你,Samik,也感謝你的好話。關於 Glass wing,是的,我認為其影響。首先也是最重要的,我們正以很有意義的方式用它來測試我們自己的程式碼。我想你們會看到我們加速把修補程式(patch)以及諸如此類的更新推出給客戶。所以這些都是正面的。從商業影響的角度(我想這是你問題的核心)來看,我認為這對我們顯然會有資安層面的影響,而且我認為這確實可能為我們帶來機會。

  • I think the -- as we talk to customers today, and I've talked to so many of them, over the last few weeks since this has become public. There's a lot of concern, obviously, about unpatched technology in their infrastructure, not just ours. And there's a particular focus on last day of support equipment or equipment that's passed the last day of support and that technology that can't be patched.

    我認為——就我們今天與客戶的對話而言,我在過去幾週、這件事公開以來,已經和非常多客戶談過。顯然大家對其基礎架構中未修補的技術非常擔憂,不只是我們的產品。而且特別聚焦在已到支援終止日(last day of support)的設備,或已經超過支援終止日的設備,以及那些無法再被修補的技術。

  • So I actually think while there will be a security opportunity, there's going to most likely be a lot of focus from our customers on modernizing their infrastructure so that they don't have this risk from technology that just can't be patched because it's well past last day of support. So that's how I think about it.

    所以我其實認為,雖然會有資安方面的機會,但客戶很可能會把大量焦點放在現代化他們的基礎架構上,避免承擔那些因為早已超過支援終止日、而根本無法修補的技術所帶來的風險。這就是我對此的看法。

  • And I would tell you that in Q3, I would effectively say there's really no meth -driven orders. There may have been one or two from a customer who decided to do it, and they were already planning on it and met those push them over the edge, but that I don't think we had any meaningful orders in Q3 as a result of Mythos but that could change in the (inaudible) future as we continue to work with customers. Thanks , Samik. And just with regard to the restructuring.

    另外我會告訴你,在第三季(Q3),我基本上會說幾乎沒有由 meth 驅動的訂單。可能有一兩筆來自某位客戶,他們本來就計畫要做,而 met 只是把他們推過臨界點;但我不認為第三季我們有任何有意義的訂單是因 Mythos 所致,不過隨著我們持續與客戶合作,未來(聽不清)可能會改變。謝謝你,Samik。另外,關於這次重整。

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • This was really not a savings driven restructure. It's really -- things are moving incredibly fast right now, and this is more realigning from an already strong base that you're seeing in our financials, but really realigning resources around silicon, optics, security and AI. And so being able to move fast, we don't always have the exact resources that we need going forward in the right places. And so that's really what this is about versus savings.

    這次其實不是一個以節省成本為驅動的重整。而是——現在事情進展非常快,這更多是從你在我們財務數字中看到的既有強勁基礎出發,重新調整資源配置,聚焦在矽(silicon)、光學(optics)、資安與 AI。因此,為了能快速行動,我們並不總是能在正確的位置上配置到未來所需的精準資源。所以這次重整的重點在於此,而不是節省。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.

    BNP Paribas 的 Karl Ackerman。

  • Karl Ackerman - Equity Analyst

    Karl Ackerman - Equity Analyst

  • This is Sam Feldman on for Karl Ackerman. First question, can you comment on why the fiscal '26 AI orders were so conservative I know you mentioned nonlinearity and customer orders, but is it also the function of market being larger than you anticipated? Any color would be greatly appreciate it.

    我是代 Karl Ackerman 提問的 Sam Feldman。第一個問題,你能否評論一下為什麼 2026 會計年度(fiscal '26)的 AI 訂單預估如此保守?我知道你提到非線性以及客戶下單,但這是否也與市場規模比你們原先預期更大有關?任何補充說明都將非常感謝。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Sam. I would say I think we've had just probably more design wins and more success than we expected at the beginning of the year is 1 thing. But the other thing is that sometimes these customers, they make decisions and when they decide to go, sometimes you don't know about it three months ahead. You find out about it, and they're like, we're ready to move.

    是的。謝謝你,Sam。我會說,我認為我們在年初時的預期之上,可能拿到了更多設計導入(design wins)與更多成功,這是一點。但另一點是,這些客戶有時候做決策時,一旦決定要推進,你不一定能提前三個月知道。你會在得知時,他們就說:我們準備好要動了。

  • And so the more they use our products, the more comfortable they become with them, the more comfortable they are with our road maps. I think it's just led them to have more confidence in continuing to invest with us.

    而且他們越使用我們的產品,就越熟悉、越放心;他們對我們的產品路線圖也越有信心。我認為這讓他們更有信心持續加碼投資我們。

  • I don't think it's anything more than that. But it's really the -- in some cases, these massive opportunities will arise, and you won't know about them and then all of a sudden, you have a big number in the pipeline 30 days later. So hopefully, it continues. But that's sort of what I would attribute it to.

    我不認為還有其他更複雜的原因。但重點是——在某些情況下,這些巨大的機會會突然出現,你事前不會知道;然後突然之間,30 天後你的管線裡就出現一個很大的數字。所以希望這種情況能持續。大致上我會把原因歸結於此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Bollin, Cleveland Research.

    Cleveland Research 的 Ben Bollin。

  • Ben Bollin - Analyst

    Ben Bollin - Analyst

  • Chuck, I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit about this internal inference effort you guys have with circuit. Could you talk a little bit about what that's solving for top line, OpEx efficiency? Just what you're seeing from that? And then also, I'm curious where you think big enterprises with their own efforts around other activities in that category?

    Chuck,我希望你能多談一點你們用 circuit 進行的內部推論(inference)工作。你能談談這在解決什麼問題——例如營收端(top line)、營運費用(OpEx)效率?你們從中看到了什麼成效?另外我也好奇,你認為大型企業在這個類別中、針對其他活動的自建投入目前進展到哪裡?

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. A lot of companies have done exactly what we're doing by creating circuit as a front end to these models. It allows us to put Cisco-based guardrails in place for what -- how we want these models to be used in addition to the guardrails that they provide.

    是的。很多公司都在做和我們一樣的事:建立 circuit 作為這些模型的前端。它讓我們能在模型本身提供的護欄之外,再加上以 Cisco 為基礎的護欄,來規範我們希望這些模型如何被使用。

  • And then it allows us to combine both public model information with proprietary Cisco information and give our give our teams the ability to leverage AI on those Public Internet data as well as our own proprietary data. So it's -- as an example, a sales rep can go in and leverage it and have the circuit actually build a sales presentation on our products based on internal information about our products.

    此外,它也讓我們能把公開模型資訊與 Cisco 的專有資訊結合,讓我們的團隊能運用 AI 來使用公共網際網路資料以及我們自己的專有資料。所以——舉例來說,業務代表可以進去使用它,讓 circuit 根據我們產品的內部資訊,實際幫他生成一份關於我們產品的銷售簡報。

  • And so that's a simple example of how it could work in addition to having APIs out to the different models. And the individual can choose the model they want to use or they can -- or we will default to what we believe to be the best model. But we're also working on delivering independent agents for every employee in the company so that they can have agents that are working on their behalf. There's a lot of work that our teams are doing. I'm really pleased with where we are.

    因此,這是一個它如何運作的簡單例子,此外我們也提供連到不同模型的 API。使用者可以選擇想用的模型,或者——我們也會預設使用我們認為最好的模型。但我們也在推動為公司每位員工提供獨立代理(agents),讓他們能有代理替他們工作。我們團隊正在做大量工作。我對我們目前的進展非常滿意。

  • And was there you wanted seventh second at the second was it? Do you want the second.

    你剛剛是想要第七個、第二個——是第二個嗎?你要第二個問題。

  • Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Mark Patterson - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Was it? Okay. But just how other companies.

    是嗎?好。不過,關於其他公司呢。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Oh, yes. And I think other companies are doing the same. I'd say on the inferencing front, I think you see customers actually doing exactly that. They're trying to build up their own infrastructure to support a combination of inferencing applications leading then to agenetic applications that are using a combination of APIs into public models as well as information in their proprietary data sources using different protocols that are available today. So MCP connectivity, et cetera.

    喔,是的。我認為其他公司也在做同樣的事。我會說,在推論這一端,我認為你會看到客戶確實也在做同樣的事。他們正嘗試建立自己的基礎架構,以支援推論應用的組合,進而導向代理式(agenetic)應用;這些應用會同時使用連到公共模型的各種 API,以及其專有資料來源中的資訊,並使用目前可用的不同協定。例如 MCP 連線能力等等。

  • So I think it's -- and I think that's part of what's driving the increase in our private data center business is customers just preparing for this.

    所以我認為——而且我認為這也是推動我們私有資料中心業務成長的一部分原因:客戶正在為此做準備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Ng, Goldman Sachs.

    Goldman Sachs 的 Michael Ng。

  • Michael Ng - Analyst

    Michael Ng - Analyst

  • Mine is just on pricing. In response to an earlier question, I think you said there was 4 to 5 percentage points of benefit ex webscale order acceleration from pricing. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the pricing strategy this year across what products did you guys implemented?

    我的問題是關於定價。在回應先前一個問題時,我想你提到,若排除 webscale 訂單加速的影響,定價帶來了 4 到 5 個百分點的助益。我想請你談談今年你們在各產品線上的定價策略——你們具體在哪些產品上實施了?

  • And anything that you guys are doing around changing your approach to leaving offers open? Like are you repricing POs, just anything that you're seeing around price elasticity as well, that would be helpful.

    以及你們在改變讓報價維持開放的做法方面,有沒有做任何調整?例如你們是否在重新定價採購訂單(PO),或是你們在價格彈性方面看到的任何情況,都會很有幫助。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, sure. Hi, Michael, so yes, a couple of things. I think in terms of -- I'll just hit the last piece first, actually, the -- in terms of the terms and conditions that we really shored up, we have -- we had about 30 days that we would give notice, we would announce a price increase, but then it didn't take effect for 30 days and then you had between 30 and sometimes 45 days to still honor quotes that were at the previous price.

    是的,當然。嗨,Michael,是的,有幾點。我想就——我先從最後一點談起。就我們確實強化的條款與條件而言,我們——我們原本大約會提前 30 天通知,也就是我們會宣布漲價,但 30 天後才生效,然後你還有 30 天、甚至有時 45 天的時間,仍可按先前價格履行既有報價。

  • And so you ended up having a couple of months plus there of exposure and -- as you know, the market is moving much faster than that. And we're just in an unprecedented times relative to to memory pricing.

    因此你最後會有兩個多月的曝險——而且如你所知,市場變動速度遠比這更快。相較於記憶體定價,我們正處於前所未有的時期。

  • So really what we did was we just tightened that up, and we said we'll give you 15 days notice and then another 15 days on the back end of that to honor quotes. So basically cut the time in half or maybe even a little bit better. And that's really helped us. You're right on the amount of price increase impact that we had in the quarter for Q3. So if you look at that non-web scale business, again, it grew at a 19% clip in Q3, and a 10% clip in the prior quarter.

    所以我們真正做的,就是把這段時間縮短;我們說會提前 15 天通知,然後在後端再給 15 天來履行報價。也就是基本上把時間砍半,甚至可能更好一些。這確實對我們很有幫助。你提到我們在本季(Q3)受到的漲價影響幅度是對的。所以如果你看那塊非 Web-scale 的業務,它在 Q3 以 19% 的速度成長,而前一季是 10%。

  • If we just -- what we did was we just ran basically those SKUs in Q3 and essentially five -- about four to five points worth of acceleration was just purely based on price, not incremental units, but just price. And so that's spot on there. And then how we've dealt with the price increase, I think we haven't put anything really on software at all.

    如果我們——我們做法是基本上把 Q3 的那些 SKU 拿來跑一遍,結果大約有 4 到 5 個百分點的加速,純粹來自價格,而不是額外的出貨量(units),就是價格因素。所以這點完全吻合。至於我們如何處理漲價,我想我們在軟體方面其實完全沒有做任何調整。

  • So it only applies to the hardware side of the business. And then we've tried to be very thoughtful on the hardware side to just say where are we most competitive? Where is the memory utilization the highest and try to really apply it with some strong logic there.

    所以它只適用於硬體端的業務。然後在硬體端,我們也盡量很審慎地思考:我們在哪些地方最具競爭力?哪些地方的記憶體使用量最高?並嘗試以一些很強的邏輯來真正套用這些調整。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • George Notter, Wolfe Research.

    George Notter,Wolfe Research。

  • George Notter - Analyst

    George Notter - Analyst

  • I was just curious about the pricing impact. You mentioned four to five points in this past quarter. As you look forward, is it fair that in the July quarter, you'll get a more significant impact from pricing being fully baked into the full quarter? Is that a dynamic here that is part of your guidance?

    我只是好奇定價的影響。你提到這一季有 4 到 5 個百分點。往前看,是否可以說在 7 月那一季,因為漲價會在整個季度完全反映,你們會看到更顯著的定價影響?這是否是你們指引中的一個動態因素?

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. George. So I think that as you look forward, there's a little bit of a difference between orders and revenue. So on the order side, I think that, that is a fair assumption that you would see a higher impact from price increases as the price increases are now sort of fully absorbed, if you will, as we get into Q4.

    是的。George。我想往前看,訂單與營收之間會有些差異。在訂單端,我認為這樣的假設是合理的:隨著我們進入 Q4,漲價現在可以說已被完全吸收,因此你會看到更高的漲價影響。

  • On the revenue side, you really didn't see any impact in Q3 per se, that was due to the price increases just based on timing of when you take the order and when it goes into the build plan, et cetera, you'll start to see some of that benefit in Q4, which is good because that's really -- those are the actions that are helping us stabilize gross margins.

    在營收端,Q3 其實嚴格來說你並沒有看到任何影響;這是因為漲價的影響取決於你何時接單、何時納入生產計畫等時間差。

  • So the impact of higher memory prices is actually much more acute in Q4 but you also have the price increases helping us in terms of what we'll ship out in Q4, then that's really been a big part of what's helped us stabilize gross margins.

    因此,記憶體價格上漲的影響在 Q4 其實更為尖銳,但同時漲價也在我們 Q4 的出貨上提供支撐;這確實是幫助我們穩定毛利率的一大部分。

  • Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

    Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

  • Thank you, George. I'm going to hand it over to Chuck for some closing remarks.

    謝謝你,George。我接下來把時間交給 Chuck 做一些結語。

  • Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

    Chuck Robbins - Chair and Chief Executive Officer

  • First of all, thanks to all of you for joining our call today, and I want to thank our teams. I'm very proud of what we've been able to achieve, the great results really driven by the relevance of our technology and our role is what we believe to be the critical infrastructure player for this AI era. We've made incredible progress with hyperscalers based on Silicon One and Optics positioning us so well.

    首先,感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議,也要感謝我們的團隊。我對我們能夠達成的成果感到非常自豪;這些優異的結果確實是由我們技術的相關性所驅動,以及我們在這個 AI 時代中所扮演的角色——我們相信自己是關鍵基礎設施的重要參與者。我們在超大規模客戶(hyperscalers)方面已取得令人難以置信的進展,Silicon One 與 Optics 的布局讓我們處於非常有利的位置。

  • We continue to be incredibly relevant in the enterprise and see this AI build-out and modernization continuing. And as AI continues to highlight the importance of security posture, I think it underscores the criticality of fusing security into the fabric of the network, and we're uniquely positioned to do that.

    我們在企業市場仍然極具相關性,並看到這波 AI 建置與現代化持續進行。而隨著 AI 持續凸顯安全態勢的重要性,我認為這也強調了把安全融合進網路架構本身的關鍵性,而我們在這方面具備獨特的優勢。

  • So I'm very confident about what's ahead. Big thanks to our team again, and thanks to everyone who joined us today. Sami, back to you.

    所以我對未來非常有信心。再次非常感謝我們的團隊,也謝謝今天加入我們的每一位。Sami,交還給你。

  • Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

    Sami Badri - Head, Investor Relations & Strategic Finance

  • Thank you, Chuck. As a reminder, Cisco will be welcoming thousands of Cisco customers and stakeholders to its annual user conference, Cisco Live in Las Vegas from May 31 through June 4. The keynotes and other content will be live streamed and be available on demand, and we look forward to connecting with some of you there. Cisco's next quarterly call, outlining our fourth quarter FY26 results will be on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, at 1:30 PM. Pacific Time, 4:30 PM.

    謝謝你,Chuck。提醒各位,Cisco 將於 5 月 31 日至 6 月 4 日在拉斯維加斯舉辦年度使用者大會 Cisco Live,屆時將迎接數千名 Cisco 客戶與利害關係人。主題演講與其他內容將進行直播,並提供隨選觀看,我們也期待在那裡與各位中的一些人交流。Cisco 下一次季度電話會議(說明我們 2026 財年第四季的結果)將於 2026 年 8 月 12 日(週三)下午 1:30 舉行。太平洋時間,下午 4:30。

  • Eastern Time. This concludes today's call. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact the Cisco Investor Relations department, and we thank you very much for joining the call today.

    美東時間。今天的電話會議到此結束。如有任何進一步問題,歡迎聯絡 Cisco 投資人關係部門,也非常感謝各位今天參與本次電話會議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for participating on today's conference call. If you would like to listen to the call in its entirety, you may call 1800-839-2232. For participants dialing from outside the US, please dial 203-369-3662.

    感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。若您想收聽完整的電話會議內容,可撥打 1800-839-2232。美國境外的與會者,請撥打 203-369-3662。

  • This concludes today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。謝謝。