阿里巴巴 (BABA) 2026 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季集團營收年增 11%,雲智能事業外部收入加速成長至 40%,AI 相關產品收入連續 11 季達三位數成長
    • 管理層預期未來一年 AI 相關產品收入將突破雲業務外部收入 50%,成為主要成長引擎
    • 本季因大規模 AI、快商與用戶體驗投資,調整後 EBITA 年減 84%;GAAP 淨利年增 96%,主要來自投資收益;盤後市場反應未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI + 雲業務成為集團核心成長引擎,AI 產品收入占雲外部收入 30%,預期一年內突破 50%
      • 自研 T-Head GPU 晶片大規模量產,60% 算力已服務外部客戶,確保算力自主與毛利提升
      • AI 應用層(如 Qwen app、企業智能工具)快速滲透,推動 ARR 高速成長,預期年底達人民幣 300 億
      • 快商(即時零售)訂單量與市占率大幅提升,帶動傳統電商 GMV 與 CMR 強勁反彈
    • 風險:
      • AI、雲基礎設施與快商持續高強度投資,短期拖累自由現金流與 EBITA
      • 算力、晶片等硬體供應受限,導致伺服器成本大幅上升,影響短期毛利率
      • 中國 2C 端 SaaS/AI 付費意願仍低,消費端變現進展需觀察
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 集團營收:年增 11%,如排除 Sun Art 與銀泰,年增 11%
    • 雲智能事業外部收入:年增 40%,AI 產品收入占比 30%,本季 AI 收入人民幣 90 億,年化人民幣 360 億
    • AI 應用與模型服務 ARR:本季預期 100 億人民幣,年底目標 300 億人民幣
    • 中國電商集團營收:人民幣 1220 億,年增 6%;CMR 年增 1%,如排除補貼會計調整,年增 8%
    • 快商業務營收:年增 57% 至人民幣 200 億,訂單量為去年同期 2.7 倍,非食品訂單為 3 倍
    • AIDC(國際電商物流)營收:年增 6%,EBITA 虧損大幅收窄,接近損益兩平
  4. 財務預測
    • 雲業務 AI 產品收入預期一年內占比突破 50%,成為主要成長動能
    • 雲業務毛利率預期未來 2-3 年顯著提升,1-2 季內開始反映
    • 算力基礎設施需求預期 2033 年為 2022 年的 10 倍,CapEx 可能超過原 RMB 3800 億預估,但部分以 OpEx 取得
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: AI MaaS 與應用 ARR 組成?自研模型與第三方占比?Token 漲價對毛利影響?
      A: 目前 ARR 主要來自自研模型(如 Qwen),平台同時開放第三方模型。AI 需求從對話轉向智能代理,推動推理需求與價格提升,客戶接受度高。MaaS 毛利高於 IaaS,推理技術持續優化,預期未來幾季毛利率將明顯提升。
    • Q: AI 投資拖累自由現金流與 EBITA,如何看投資回報與現金流平衡?
      A: 負自由現金流主因 AI 高強度投資,未來兩年將持續投入。主營現金流來自淘寶天貓,穩定且快商虧損將大幅收窄,AIDC 也將轉盈。雲 AI 業務毛利提升後,現金流將改善。集團淨現金 380 億美元(不含長債 590 億),資本市場融資能力強,對長期回報有信心。
    • Q: 快商(即時零售)UE 改善驅動因素?未來 3 年展望?
      A: 快商訂單量與市占率大幅提升,非食品訂單增長尤為明顯。4 月起持續優化履約物流與訂單結構,預期 2027 財年末 UE 轉正。快商與傳統電商產生協同,推動用戶增長與 GMV、CMR 表現。
    • Q: MaaS 與中國 AI 競爭優勢?AI coding 商業化潛力?中國 SaaS 付費意願低是否影響?
      A: 阿里 MaaS 平台開放,主力為自研模型,投資規模與覆蓋面遠超中國 AI 新創。AI coding 能力已大幅提升,推動 ARR 快速增長。中國 SaaS 付費意願隨模型能力提升將改善,AI 長期需求確定性高。
    • Q: 雲業務未來幾季 EBITA 毛利率展望?能否追上國際同業?
      A: AI 滲透產業仍早期,首要目標是市占與規模增長,毛利率次之。算力供應緊張推動價格提升,MaaS 毛利高於傳統雲,T-Head 晶片滲透率提升也有助毛利。預期 1-2 季內開始看到毛利率明顯提升,2-3 年內顯著改善。
    • Q: AI/雲 CapEx 規模與 T-Head 滲透率、毛利貢獻?
      A: 2033 年算力需求為 2022 年 10 倍,CapEx 可能超過原 RMB 3800 億預估,部分以 OpEx 取得。T-Head 晶片目前滲透率仍低,受限於產能,但隨產能提升將大幅貢獻毛利,長期有望達國際 AI 晶片 60-80% 毛利率水準。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Alibaba Group's March quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) After management's prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

    各位女士、各位先生,大家好。感謝各位撥冗等候。歡迎參加阿里巴巴集團2026財年第三季度(3月季度)及全年業績電話會議。(接線員提示)在管理層預備發言後,將進入問答環節。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Lydia Lu, Head of Investor Relations of Alibaba. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把電話會議交給阿里巴巴投資者關係主管盧維莉(Lydia Lu)。請開始。

  • Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

    Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

  • Good day, everyone. Thank you for joining Alibaba Group's March quarter and full fiscal year 2026 earnings call. On the call with me are Joe Tsai, Chairman; Eddie Wu, Chief Executive Officer; Toby Xu, Chief Financial Officer; Jiang Fan, Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group. As a reminder, this call is being webcast live. A replay of the call will be available on our website later today.

    各位好。感謝各位參加阿里巴巴集團2026財年3月季度及全年業績電話會議。與我一同出席本次電話會議的有:主席蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)、首席執行官吳泳銘(Eddie Wu)、首席財務官徐宏(Toby Xu)、以及阿里巴巴電商事業群首席執行官蔣凡。提醒各位,本次電話會議正在進行網路直播。會議重播將於今日稍晚在我們的網站提供。

  • On this call, we may make forward-looking statements and discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. The forward-looking statements reflect management's current expectations that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our GAAP results and reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press release and investor presentation. Our comments will be on year-over-year comparisons unless we state otherwise.

    在本次電話會議中,我們可能會作出前瞻性陳述,並討論若干非GAAP財務指標。前瞻性陳述反映管理層目前的預期,並受風險與不確定性影響。我們的GAAP業績以及GAAP與非GAAP指標之間的調節表,已包含在今日的業績新聞稿與投資者簡報中。除非另有說明,我們的評論將以同比比較為基礎。

  • And with that, let me turn the call over to Eddie.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給Eddie。

  • Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (interpreted) Welcome to Alibaba Group's fiscal year 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call. Over the past quarter, Alibaba's high-intensity investment in our two strategic priorities of AI + Cloud and consumption is rapidly translating into tangible business results with group revenue growing 11% year-over-year. This quarter, Cloud Intelligence Group's external revenue growth accelerated to 40%, and AI-related product revenue achieved triple-digit growth for the 11th consecutive quarter.

    (口譯)歡迎參加阿里巴巴集團2026財年第四季度業績電話會議。在過去一個季度,阿里巴巴對「AI + 雲」與「消費」兩大戰略重點的高強度投入,正迅速轉化為可見的業務成果,帶動集團收入同比增長11%。本季度,雲智能集團外部收入增長加速至40%,AI相關產品收入連續第11個季度實現三位數增長。

  • China e-commerce CMR grew 8% year-over-year on a like-for-like basis, and the quick commerce market achieved significant unit economics improvement while maintaining market share. We are at a pivotal inflection point in the evolution from conversational chatbots to autonomous AI agents, which is directly driving explosive growth across three core workload categories: training, inference and agent orchestration. Against this backdrop, Alibaba's AI has moved beyond the initial investment phase and progressed commercialization at scale.

    中國電商的客戶管理收入(CMR)在可比口徑下同比增長8%;即時零售業務在保持市場份額的同時,單位經濟效益顯著改善。我們正處於從對話式聊天機器人演進至自主AI代理(AI agents)的關鍵拐點,這正直接推動三大核心工作負載類別的爆發式增長:訓練、推理與代理編排。在此背景下,阿里巴巴的AI已走出初期投入階段,並推進至規模化商業化。

  • Next, let me walk you through four areas in detail: AI commercialization, cloud infrastructure, the AI application ecosystem and our consumption business. First, the AI and cloud commercialization inflection point has arrived. This quarter, Cloud Intelligence Group's annualized AI-related product revenue has surpassed RMB35.8 billion, continuing to maintain triple-digit growth. AI-related product revenue now accounts for 30% of Cloud Intelligence Group's external revenue. We expect that in about one year, AI-related product revenue will cross the 50% threshold, becoming the primary engine driving the cloud business's revenue growth.

    接下來,我將就四個方面作更詳細的說明:AI商業化、雲基礎設施、AI應用生態,以及我們的消費業務。首先,AI與雲的商業化拐點已經到來。本季度,雲智能集團AI相關產品的年化收入已超過人民幣358億元,並持續保持三位數增長。AI相關產品收入目前占雲智能集團外部收入的30%。我們預期約一年後,AI相關產品收入將跨越50%的門檻,成為推動雲業務收入增長的主要引擎。

  • As a result, Cloud Intelligence Group's external revenue growth is expected to continue accelerating beyond its current 40% rate over the coming quarters. Given the certainty of long-term AI demand and our full stack technology advantages, we expect this trajectory to sustain strong growth over the medium to long term. This reflects AI's role in driving a comprehensive upgrade of Alibaba Cloud's entire business as its growth engine fully pivots from traditional compute and storage to models, AI compute and agent services.

    因此,雲智能集團外部收入增長預計將在未來幾個季度繼續加速,並超越目前40%的增速。鑑於長期AI需求的確定性以及我們全棧技術優勢,我們預期這一趨勢在中長期仍將保持強勁增長。這反映了AI正推動阿里雲整體業務的全面升級,其增長引擎正從傳統算力與存儲,全面轉向模型、AI算力與代理服務。

  • We're also seeing exponential growth in AI model and application services revenue, a new revenue driven jointly by foundation model services and AI-native software. Over the past three months, token consumption volumes on our model services platform grew substantially quarter-over-quarter as enterprise customers accelerated their shift from simple tasks to production scale and complex workloads, driving continued growth in demand for model and application services on the Model Studio platform.

    我們也看到AI模型與應用服務收入呈指數級增長,這是一項由基礎模型服務與原生AI軟體共同驅動的新收入來源。過去三個月,我們模型服務平台的Token消耗量環比大幅增長,因企業客戶加速從簡單任務轉向生產級規模與複雜工作負載,帶動Model Studio平台對模型與應用服務的需求持續提升。

  • We expect model and application services annualized recurring revenue, ARR, inclusive of the Model Studio platform to surpass RMB10 billion in the June quarter and RMB30 billion by year-end. The hard margin profile of this revenue stream is becoming increasingly apparent, making it a source of healthy, high-quality growth.

    我們預期,包含Model Studio平台在內的模型與應用服務年化經常性收入(ARR)將在6月季度突破人民幣100億元,並在年底達到人民幣300億元。該收入流的硬性毛利特徵正日益清晰,將成為健康且高品質增長的來源。

  • Second, our AI infrastructure underpins our full technology stack and constitutes a durable moat. T-Head's proprietary GPU chips have achieved scaled MaaS production with over 60% of compute capacity already serving external customers across Internet, financial services and autonomous driving verticals. As the only AI cloud provider in China capable of delivering self-developed AI chips at scale, we've secured autonomy over our compute supply chain while providing customers with highly competitive AI inference and training services.

    第二,我們的AI基礎設施支撐全技術棧,並構成持久的護城河。平頭哥自研GPU晶片已實現規模化MaaS量產,且超過60%的算力產能已服務於互聯網、金融服務與自動駕駛等垂直領域的外部客戶。作為中國唯一能夠規模化提供自研AI晶片的AI雲服務商,我們在算力供應鏈上實現自主可控,同時為客戶提供具高度競爭力的AI推理與訓練服務。

  • In an environment of compute scarcity, this structural advantage is favorable to our revenue growth and gross margin improvement. At the same time, our cloud products are accelerating their AI-oriented upgrade. The surge in agent workloads has significantly elevated demand for traditional cloud products built around CPU storage and containers, and we're upgrading these into infrastructure solutions optimized for the agent era.

    在算力稀缺的環境下,這一結構性優勢有利於我們的收入增長與毛利率改善。同時,我們的雲產品也在加速面向AI的升級。代理工作負載的激增,顯著抬升了以CPU、存儲與容器為核心的傳統雲產品需求;我們正將其升級為面向代理時代優化的基礎設施解決方案。

  • Third, at the application layer, we have built a complete closed loop spanning AI-native software to a full agent ecosystem. Alibaba Token app continues to launch new products, connecting consumer and enterprise environments with breakthrough progress in AI-native software and coding agents. The Q1 model continues to iterate across reasoning, coding and agentic capabilities. On the enterprise side, we've launched a range of products spanning intelligent workplace tools, AI coding and business operation management, helping enterprises unlock greater productivity.

    第三,在應用層面,我們已建立從原生AI軟體到完整代理生態的閉環。阿里巴巴Token應用持續推出新產品,在原生AI軟體與程式碼代理方面取得突破性進展,連接消費者與企業場景。Q1模型持續在推理、編碼與代理能力方面迭代。在企業端,我們推出涵蓋智慧辦公工具、AI編碼與業務營運管理的一系列產品,協助企業釋放更高生產力。

  • On the consumer side, Qwen app fully integrated Taobao and Tmall's commerce service capabilities on May 7. And with this, Qwen app is now deeply embedded across the ecosystem spanning Taobao, Alipay, Amap and Fliggy, making it China's first all-in-one personal assistant to seamlessly bridge everyday life productivity and learning.

    在消費者端,通義千問(Qwen)App於5月7日全面整合淘寶與天貓的電商服務能力。至此,通義千問App已深度嵌入涵蓋淘寶、支付寶、高德與飛豬的生態體系,成為中國首個一體化個人助理,可無縫連接日常生活的效率提升與學習需求。

  • Fourth, across our consumption business and at the group level, we're prioritizing long-term value. Beyond AI, our consumption strategy continues to progress steadily with CMR growth rebounding significantly. This quarter, CMR grew 8% year-over-year on a like-for-like basis as we continue to improve user experience and merchant operating efficiency. The quick commerce business achieved significant unit economics improvement while maintaining stable market scale.

    第四,在我們的消費業務以及集團層面,我們優先關注長期價值。除AI之外,我們的消費戰略也在穩步推進,CMR增長顯著回升。本季度,在可比口徑下,CMR同比增長8%,因我們持續提升用戶體驗與商家經營效率。即時零售業務在保持穩定市場規模的同時,單位經濟效益顯著改善。

  • In summary, the return on our investments in AI + Cloud and consumption are increasingly clear. AI + Cloud revenue growth is accelerating with improving margins, model and application services ARR continues to grow at pace and operating efficiency across our consumption business continues to improve. Facing the historical opportunity that AI represents, Alibaba is in a pivotal juncture where our technology investments are beginning to pay off commercially. We'll maintain our strategic results and leverage our full stack AI capabilities to support long-term growth.

    總結而言,我們在「AI + 雲」與「消費」上的投資回報正愈發清晰。AI + 雲收入增長正在加速且利潤率改善;模型與應用服務ARR持續快速增長;我們消費業務的營運效率也持續提升。面對AI帶來的歷史性機遇,阿里巴巴正處於關鍵節點,我們的技術投入開始在商業化層面獲得回報。我們將保持戰略定力,並發揮全棧AI能力以支持長期增長。

  • That concludes my prepared remarks. Next, I'll hand over to Toby to talk you through our financial results. Thank you.

    以上是我的預備發言。接下來,我把時間交給Toby,請他帶大家回顧我們的財務業績。謝謝。

  • Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

    Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Eddie. Our strategic priorities remain laser focused on AI + Cloud and consumption businesses. Multiple growth catalysts, including technological advancement and business innovation are aligning to create strong tailwinds. On AI + Cloud, our full stack capability span models, cloud infrastructure and applications. With established leadership in every layer, the strong growth of our AI + Cloud businesses and a clear path to monetization of our MaaS platform give us confidence to make significant investments to extend our leadership. On consumption, we achieved a strong CMR growth on a like-for-like basis during the quarter, and our quick commerce business continued to improve UE and AOV quarter-over-quarter.

    謝謝你,Eddie。我們的戰略重點仍然高度聚焦於「AI + 雲」與「消費」業務。包括技術進步與業務創新在內的多重增長催化因素正在匯聚,形成強勁順風。在AI + 雲方面,我們的全棧能力覆蓋模型、雲基礎設施與應用。憑藉在各層的既有領先地位、AI + 雲業務的強勁增長,以及MaaS平台清晰的變現路徑,我們有信心進行重大投資以延伸我們的領先優勢。在消費方面,本季度我們在可比口徑下實現強勁的CMR增長,即時零售業務的UE與AOV亦環比持續改善。

  • Now let's look at the financial results for this quarter. On a consolidated basis, total revenue was RMB243.4 billion. Excluding revenue from Sun Art and Intime, revenue on a like-for-like basis would have grown by 11%. Total adjusted EBITA decreased 84%, primarily due to our strategic investments in technology businesses, quick commerce and user experience, partly offset by the improved operating results supported by continued growth in consumer management service in the cloud business and enhanced operating efficiencies across various businesses.

    現在讓我們來看看本季度的財務表現。按合併口徑計算,總收入為人民幣2,434億元。剔除高鑫零售與銀泰的收入後,按可比口徑計算,收入本可增長11%。經調整EBITA總額下降84%,主要由於我們在科技業務、即時零售以及用戶體驗方面的戰略性投入所致,部分被雲業務中消費者管理服務持續增長所帶動的經營改善,以及各項業務運營效率提升所抵銷。

  • Our GAAP net income was RMB23.5 billion, an increase of 96%, primarily attributable to the year-over-year increase in net gain from mark-to-market changes of our equity investments and disposal losses of Sun Art and Intime in the same quarter last year, partly offset by the decrease in adjusted EBITA.

    按GAAP口徑計算,我們的淨利潤為人民幣235億元,同比增長96%,主要歸因於我們股權投資按市值計量變動帶來的淨收益同比增加,以及去年同期處置高鑫零售與銀泰產生的處置損失;部分被經調整EBITA下降所抵銷。

  • Operating cash flow was an inflow of RMB9.4 billion. Free cash flow was an outflow of RMB17.3 billion. We are reinvesting our operating cash flow to enhance our competitive advantage in AI. As of March 31, 2026, we held approximately USD38 billion in net cash. Excluding debt with maturities beyond 5 years, our net cash position stands at approximately USD59 billion. This balance sheet strength gives us confidence to invest for growth.

    經營活動現金流入為人民幣94億元。自由現金流出為人民幣173億元。我們正在將經營現金流再投資,用於強化我們在AI方面的競爭優勢。截至2026年3月31日,我們持有約380億美元的淨現金。剔除到期日超過5年的債務後,我們的淨現金狀況約為590億美元。這一資產負債表實力使我們有信心為增長進行投資。

  • Now let's look at our consumption businesses. Revenue from China E-commerce Group was RMB122 billion, an increase of 6%. Customer management revenue increased by 1%. To help merchants grow their businesses and increase willingness to spend on our platform, we upgraded our business development program for select merchants during the quarter, under which the level of platform subsidies for these merchants is directly tied to their marketing spend on our platform.

    接下來讓我們看看我們的消費業務。中國電商集團收入為人民幣1,220億元,同比增長6%。客戶管理收入增長1%。為了幫助商家提升業務增長並提高其在我們平台上的投放意願,我們在本季度為部分商家升級了業務發展計劃,在該計劃下,平台對這些商家的補貼水平與其在我們平台上的營銷支出直接掛鉤。

  • For accounting purpose, such subsidies previously recorded as sales and marketing expenses are now recorded as a contra revenue item to CMR. Accordingly, CMR grew 1% year-over-year during the quarter. Excluding the contra revenue impact from the program, on a like-for-like basis, CMR would have grown 8% year-over-year. Revenue from our quick commerce business increased 57% to RMB20 billion. The quick commerce business further improved the UE and increased the AOV quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by order mix optimization.

    出於會計目的,此類補貼此前計入銷售及市場費用,現改為作為客戶管理收入(CMR)的抵減收入項目入賬。因此,本季度CMR同比增長1%。若剔除該計劃帶來的抵減收入影響,按可比口徑計算,CMR本可同比增長8%。我們的即時零售業務收入增長57%至人民幣200億元。即時零售業務進一步改善用戶體驗(UE),並推動客單價(AOV)環比提升,主要由訂單結構優化所帶動。

  • Alibaba China E-commerce Group adjusted EBITA was RMB24 billion, a decrease of 40%, primarily due to the investment in quick commerce, user experience and technology, while there's positive contribution from customer management service. Excluding loss from our quick commerce business, our Alibaba China E-commerce Group EBITA would have been stable year-over-year and will fluctuate quarter-over-quarter due to significant investment in merchant retention and user experience.

    阿里巴巴中國電商集團經調整EBITA為人民幣240億元,同比下降40%,主要由於在即時零售、用戶體驗及技術方面的投入增加,同時客戶管理服務帶來正向貢獻。若剔除即時零售業務的虧損,阿里巴巴中國電商集團EBITA將同比保持穩定,並將因在商家留存與用戶體驗方面的大額投入而出現季度間波動。

  • Revenue from AIDC grew 6% this quarter. AIDC's adjusted EBITA loss narrowed significantly year-over-year, approaching breakeven, driven by a combination of logistics optimization and operating efficiency. The unit economics of AliExpress' Choice business continue to improve substantially on a sequential basis.

    本季度AIDC收入增長6%。AIDC經調整EBITA虧損同比大幅收窄,接近盈虧平衡,主要由物流優化與運營效率提升共同推動。AliExpress的Choice業務單位經濟效益仍在環比顯著改善。

  • Next, let's look at the business update and results of Cloud Intelligence Group. Our cloud business delivered another quarter of accelerating growth. Revenue from external customers accelerated to grow 40%. AI-related products continued to lead this momentum. We delivered our 11th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth in AI revenue. Its share of external cloud revenue continue to increase now account for 30%. This quarter's AI revenue is RMB9 billion and the annual revenue run rate is RMB36 billion or USD5.3 billion. This is a clear reflection of the scale and acceleration in our AI business. The adjusted EBITA margin remained relatively stable at 9.1%.

    接下來,我們來看雲智能集團的業務進展與業績表現。我們的雲業務再度交出一個增長加速的季度。來自外部客戶的收入增速加快至40%。AI相關產品持續引領這一增長動能。我們實現了AI收入連續第11個季度三位數增長。其在外部雲收入中的占比持續提升,目前已達30%。本季度AI收入為人民幣90億元,年化收入運行率為人民幣360億元或53億美元。這清晰反映了我們AI業務的規模化與加速發展。經調整EBITA利潤率保持相對穩定,為9.1%。

  • All others segment revenue decreased by 21% to RMB65.5 billion, mainly due to the disposal of Sun Art and Intime businesses as well as the decrease in revenue from Cainiao, partially offset by the increase in revenue from Freshippo and Amap. All others adjusted EBITA was a loss of RMB21.2 billion, primarily due to the increased investment in technology businesses, including foundation models and the consumer-facing Qwen app.

    「所有其他」分部收入下降21%至人民幣655億元,主要由於處置高鑫零售與銀泰業務,以及菜鳥收入下降;部分被盒馬與高德收入增長所抵銷。「所有其他」經調整EBITA為虧損人民幣212億元,主要由於加大對科技業務的投入,包括基礎模型以及面向消費者的通義千問(Qwen)App。

  • As we close this fiscal year, we remain committed to delivering consistent shareholder returns. Our Board of Directors has approved an annual dividend of USD1.05 per ADS. We will continue to invest decisively in AI and consumption businesses where we see significant long-term growth potential and our competitive advantages are compounding. We believe these investments to deliver growth and returns over time ultimately creating greater value for our shareholders.

    在本財年收官之際,我們仍致力於為股東提供持續且穩定的回報。董事會已批准每股ADS派發1.05美元的年度股息。我們將繼續果斷投資於AI與消費業務,在這些領域我們看到顯著的長期增長潛力,且我們的競爭優勢正在持續累積。我們相信,這些投資將隨時間推動增長與回報,最終為股東創造更大價值。

  • Thank you. We will now open for Q&A.

    謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。

  • Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

    Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

  • Hi, everyone. You're welcome to ask questions in Chinese or English. A third-party translator will provide consecutive interpretation. In the case of any discrepancy, our management statement in the original language will prevail. (spoken in foreign language)

    大家好。歡迎用中文或英文提問。第三方翻譯將提供交替傳譯。如有任何差異,以管理層以原語言所作陳述為準。(外語發言)

  • Operator, please start the Q&A session. Thank you.

    接線員,請開始問答環節。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Ronald Keung, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛,Ronald Keung。

  • Ronald Keung - Analyst

    Ronald Keung - Analyst

  • Thank you, Joe, Eddie, Toby, Jiang and Lydia and thanks for sharing the very sizable AI MaaS and applications ARR scale and the target for the first time. So I just want to ask, how much of that ARR is driven by our in-house models like Qwen versus third-party models? And given the recent token price hikes, what would be the implications to MaaS and also margins as a result? Thank you.

    謝謝Joe、Eddie、Toby、Jiang和Lydia,也感謝你們首次分享了規模相當可觀的AI MaaS與應用ARR規模以及目標。我想請教的是,這些ARR中有多少是由我們自研模型(如通義千問Qwen)驅動的,多少來自第三方模型?另外,鑑於近期token價格上調,這對MaaS以及利潤率會帶來哪些影響?謝謝。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • (spoken in foreign language)

    (外語發言)

  • (interpreted) Thank you for that question. This quarter marks the first time that we announced the latest figure for model and application service revenue. That really comprises mainly two things. On the one hand, it includes revenue from API calls on MaaS on our Bailian platform, and it also includes revenues from our AI software subscriptions.

    (翻譯) 謝謝你的提問。本季度是我們首次公布模型與應用服務收入的最新數字。這主要由兩部分構成。一方面,包括我們百煉平台上MaaS的API調用收入;另一方面,也包括我們AI軟體訂閱收入。

  • At present, most of the revenue is coming from the first of those two pieces, but this is an open platform. So we are providing access both to our proprietary models as well as third-party models, including open source models and closed models. But for the time being, most of that revenue is coming from our own proprietary models, including Qwen as well as Tmall as well as our voice and video generating models.

    目前,大部分收入來自上述兩部分中的第一部分,但這是一個開放平台。因此,我們既提供對自有專有模型的接入,也提供對第三方模型的接入,包括開源模型與閉源模型。但就目前而言,大部分收入仍來自我們自有的專有模型,包括通義千問(Qwen),以及天貓,還有我們的語音與視頻生成模型。

  • Your second question was also a really important one because in the past quarter, over the past few months, we've seen a very large shift in the market where AI is shifting from functioning as a conversational chatbot to providing agentic capabilities. So these agents are increasingly capable of solving for very complex problems, meaning that they need to do a lot more inferencing than in the past. And precisely because these agents can help to solve very complex tasks, customers' acceptance for higher prices, and we have increased our token prices, is good and the demand continues to be high and growing.

    你的第二個問題也非常重要,因為在過去一個季度、過去幾個月裡,我們看到市場出現了很大的轉變:AI正從對話式聊天機器人的形態,轉向提供具備代理(agentic)能力的形態。因此,這些智能體越來越能夠解決非常複雜的問題,這意味著它們需要比過去進行更多的推理計算(inferencing)。也正因為這些智能體能幫助解決非常複雜的任務,客戶對更高價格的接受度提升;我們也上調了token價格,而需求依然旺盛並持續增長。

  • In fact, our ability to supply this demand is not able to keep up with all the growth in demand, and we actually have a lot of customers still waiting to access the service. Inherently, MaaS will have higher gross margin than IaaS. That's important to know. And I can also add a few important points on top of that. First is that the development of reasoning or inferencing technology still continues to advance. So every quarter, we're seeing new results in terms of optimization in reasoning, in inferencing with continuous incremental effects in terms of the token capacity of a single server and a single card.

    事實上,我們供應以滿足這項需求的能力,無法跟上需求成長的全部速度,而且目前確實仍有許多客戶在等待使用該服務。從本質上來看,MaaS 的毛利率將高於 IaaS。這一點很重要。我也可以在此基礎上再補充幾個重要觀點。第一,推理(reasoning)或推論(inferencing)技術的發展仍在持續進步。因此每一季我們都看到新的成果,包括在推理與推論的最佳化方面,並且在單台伺服器與單張卡的 token 容量上,持續帶來增量式的提升效果。

  • At the same time, as the capabilities of models continue to strengthen and the price of the model continues to increase in the next year or two, we see that this should be a process of continued price improvement. So I think from this point of view, the rapid growth in this business over the next few quarters will result in a very positive impact on our overall gross profit margin.

    同時,隨著模型能力持續增強,以及未來一到兩年模型價格持續上升,我們認為這將是一個價格持續改善的過程。因此我認為,從這個角度來看,未來幾季這項業務的快速成長,將對我們整體毛利率帶來非常正面的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kenneth Fong, UBS.

    Kenneth Fong,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Kenneth Fong - Analyst

    Kenneth Fong - Analyst

  • Hi, good evening, management. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the very strong progress on the AI. I have a question regarding the return on invested capital on the AI investment. So while our AI investments have driven impressive 40% cloud growth, they have also created significant drag on the group free cash flow as well as our EBITA. So how do investors assess the return on this investment? And what is the management's framework for balancing the aggressive AI spending versus earnings stability?

    嗨,晚安,管理層。感謝回答我的問題,也恭喜 AI 方面取得非常強勁的進展。我有一個關於 AI 投資之投入資本報酬率(ROIC) 的問題。雖然我們的 AI 投資帶動了令人印象深刻的 40% 雲端成長,但也對集團自由現金流以及我們的 EBITA 造成了顯著拖累。那麼投資人該如何評估這項投資的報酬?管理層在平衡積極的 AI 支出與獲利穩定性方面,有什麼樣的框架?

  • Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

    Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

  • (spoken in foreign language)

    (以外語發言)

  • (interpreted) Thanks, Kenneth for that question. This is Toby, and I'm going to start by answering that first question because I think it's important and of interest to everybody. The question is the reason for the negative free cash flow and how we are managing that. So starting there, the answer is that the negative free cash flow is primarily due to the very significant investments we've been making in AI over the past year. And we've been extremely resolute in making those investments precisely because we've seen the historic opportunity of AI.

    (口譯)謝謝你,Kenneth 的提問。我是 Toby,我先回答第一個問題,因為我認為這很重要,也是大家都關心的。你的問題是自由現金流為何為負,以及我們如何管理。從這裡開始回答:自由現金流為負,主要是因為過去一年我們在 AI 上進行了非常大規模的投資。而我們之所以非常堅定地做出這些投資,正是因為我們看到了 AI 的歷史性機會。

  • So we've been very resolute in making those investments over the past year. And looking forward to the next two years, we intend to be equally resolute in continuing these investments, again, because we see this is a critical window of opportunity that will be open for that period for the next couple of years. Additionally, there's really been no big change in the way that we look at cash flow.

    因此過去一年我們非常堅定地進行這些投資。展望未來兩年,我們也打算同樣堅定地持續投入,因為我們認為未來幾年這段期間是一個關鍵的機會窗口。此外,我們看待現金流的方式其實並沒有發生重大改變。

  • First of all, the major contributor of operating cash flow for the group is Taobao and Tmall and that cash flow is very stable. And looking ahead over the next two years in terms of quick commerce, the losses will narrow very substantially. At the same time, AIDC will develop from making a loss to being profitable. So we see these developments over the next two years as being highly positive for our net cash flow.

    首先,集團營運現金流的主要貢獻來源是淘寶與天貓,而這部分現金流非常穩定。展望未來兩年,在即時零售(quick commerce)方面,虧損將大幅收窄。同時,AIDC 將從虧損轉為獲利。因此我們認為,未來兩年這些發展將對我們的淨現金流帶來高度正面的影響。

  • Another important point to be added is that our ongoing investments in cloud infrastructure will increase the revenues that we can achieve from our AI and cloud offerings. At the same time, we will increase gross margins in those very same offerings. So in those ways, we expect that we can achieve higher net cash flow from our cloud and AI business, and that cash flow can in turn be used to support the development of the relevant infrastructure.

    另一個需要補充的重要觀點是,我們持續對雲端基礎設施的投資,將提升我們從 AI 與雲端產品所能實現的營收。同時,我們也會提高這些同樣產品的毛利率。因此,透過這些方式,我們預期雲端與 AI 業務能帶來更高的淨現金流,而這些現金流也可反過來用於支持相關基礎設施的建設。

  • An additional point is that we have a very strong balance sheet. As of March 31, 2026, we held approximately USD38 billion in net cash. And if you exclude debt with maturities beyond 5 years, our net cash position stands at approximately USD58 billion . So that balance sheet strength also gives us confidence to reinvest for growth. And beyond that, I would also add that we have a very strong capacity for pursuing financing in capital markets, and we have the capability to raise capital from the markets as we need to support our development.

    另外一點是,我們的資產負債表非常強勁。截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日,我們持有約 380 億美元的淨現金。若排除到期日超過 5 年的債務,我們的淨現金部位約為 580 億美元。因此,這樣的資產負債表實力也讓我們更有信心為成長再投資。此外我也要補充,我們在資本市場進行融資的能力非常強,並且具備在需要時從市場籌集資金以支持發展的能力。

  • So I wanted to open with that in response to your question on cash flows, and I'll pause there to see if Eddie has anything to add.

    以上是我針對你關於現金流問題的開場回應,我先說到這裡,看看 Eddie 是否還有補充。

  • Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (interpreted) Thank you. You asked about our investments in AI and the ROI on those investments going forward. So on top of what Toby has already said, I'd like to add a few notes regarding where we're heading. I think the best analogy is manufacturing.

    (口譯)謝謝。你問到我們在 AI 的投資,以及未來這些投資的投資報酬率(ROI)。在 Toby 已經說明的基礎上,我想再補充幾點關於我們的方向。我認為最好的類比是製造業。

  • In other words, in order to be able to manufacture more and sell more in the future and achieve more revenue, what we're doing today is investing capital to build two factories, if you like. The first we can call the AI training factory. The second, we can call the inferencing factory. And both of those factories need to be powered by our AI data centers, and that requires the investment of cash flow today.

    換句話說,為了未來能製造更多、賣得更多並取得更多營收,我們今天所做的是投入資本去建兩座工廠。第一座可以稱為 AI 訓練工廠。第二座可以稱為推論工廠。而這兩座工廠都需要由我們的 AI 資料中心提供動力,因此需要在今天投入現金流。

  • However, looking to the future, the pathway to achieving a solid return on investment in those factories, in those areas, is very clear. On the 2B side by monetizing our 2B offerings, including our cloud-based IaaS as well as MaaS, of course, and our AI-native apps. And I can tell you that today, there isn't a single card on our service that is idle. So we see the ROI on this investment in the next three- to five-year period as being extremely clear.

    不過,放眼未來,在這些工廠、這些領域取得穩健投資報酬的路徑非常清晰。在 2B 端,透過我們 2B 產品的變現,包括雲端 IaaS,當然也包括 MaaS,以及我們的 AI 原生應用。我可以告訴你,今天我們服務上的每一張卡都沒有閒置。因此我們認為,這項投資在未來三到五年的 ROI 非常明確。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thomas Chong, Jefferies.

    Thomas Chong,Jefferies。

  • Thomas Chong - Analyst

    Thomas Chong - Analyst

  • Hi, good evening. Thanks management for taking my question. My question is on quick commerce. I've talked about the improvement in UE in the prepared remarks. I just wanted to get some more color about the drivers behind in terms of AOV, subsidies ratio, fulfillment ratio, et cetera. And on top of that, I remember last time we talked about the outlook for quick commerce over the next couple of years. Is there any update or changes in terms of how we think about the landscape or the UE in the next three years? Thank you.

    嗨,晚安。感謝管理層回答我的問題。我的問題是關於即時零售(quick commerce)。你們在準備稿中提到 UE 的改善。我想再多了解一些背後的驅動因素,例如 AOV、補貼比例、履約比例等。另外,我記得上次我們談到未來幾年即時零售的展望。對於未來三年我們如何看待競爭格局或 UE,有沒有任何更新或改變?謝謝。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • (interpreted) Thank you. Well, first, as a result of our strong investments at quick commerce, we've achieved very rapid growth in quick commerce over the past year, marking a very fundamental shift in our market position. Compared to the same quarter last year, which was, of course, prior to all this large-scale investment, both our order volume and our market share have increased significantly. Overall order volume was 2.7 times that of the same quarter last year with non-food orders at 3 times.

    (口譯)謝謝。首先,因為我們在即時零售上大力投資,過去一年即時零售實現了非常快速的成長,這也標誌著我們市場地位出現非常根本性的轉變。與去年同期相比(當時當然還在這些大規模投資之前),我們的訂單量與市占率都顯著提升。整體訂單量是去年同期的 2.7 倍,其中非食品訂單達到 3 倍。

  • From April onwards, while maintaining order volume, we've continued to drive substantial improvement in UE through enhanced fulfillment logistics efficiency as well as order mix optimization. So we are confident that UE will turn positive by the end of fiscal year '27.

    自 4 月起,在維持訂單量的同時,我們透過提升履約物流效率以及優化訂單結構,持續推動 UE 的顯著改善。因此我們有信心 UE 將在 2027 財年年底轉正。

  • While optimizing UE, we will continue to innovate to improve the experience for both consumers and merchants, thereby sustaining our long-term competitiveness in quick commerce. We're confident that our quick commerce business will achieve overall profitability in the future at new scale and market share.

    在優化 UE 的同時,我們將持續創新,以提升消費者與商家的體驗,從而維持我們在即時零售的長期競爭力。我們有信心,即時零售業務在新的規模與市占率之下,未來將實現整體獲利。

  • This quarter, quick commerce continued to generate synergies with our conventional e-commerce business, as demonstrated in driving customer acquisition, enhancing user engagement, fulfilling diverse consumer demands, increasing transactions, improving monetization and supporting logistics infrastructure.

    本季,即時零售持續與我們的傳統電商業務產生協同效應,體現在推動客戶獲取、提升用戶參與度、滿足多元消費需求、增加交易、改善變現能力以及支持物流基礎設施等方面。

  • In terms of categories, quick commerce continued to drive sales in various categories, especially food and fresh produce and health care and contributed to Freshippo's and Tmall Supermarket's accelerated growth. So in our conventional e-commerce business, we saw GMV and CMR demonstrate strong growth momentum in the March quarter, and quick commerce played a vital role in driving that performance.

    在品類方面,即時零售持續帶動多個品類的銷售,尤其是食品與生鮮以及健康護理,並促進盒馬與天貓超市的加速成長。因此,在我們的傳統電商業務中,我們看到3月季度的GMV與CMR展現出強勁的成長動能,而即時零售在推動該表現方面發揮了關鍵作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jialong Shi, Nomura.

    石佳龍,野村。

  • Jialong Shi - Analyst

    Jialong Shi - Analyst

  • (interpreted) Thank you, management for taking my question. I have a follow-up based on your opening remarks concerning MaaS. I'm wondering, first of all, what are the major advantages that Alibaba has when compared to the other major AI platforms in China as well as Chinese AI start-ups? In the United States, we see that AI agents and especially coding are the fastest growth track in AI. I'm wondering when you think we'll see that kind of growth in China in terms of AI coding.

    (口譯)謝謝管理層回答我的問題。我想就您在開場發言中提到的MaaS做一個追問。我想先請教,與中國其他主要AI平台以及中國AI新創相比,阿里巴巴的主要優勢是什麼?在美國,我們看到AI代理(agents),尤其是程式碼相關,是AI領域成長最快的賽道。我想請問您認為在中國,AI程式碼(AI coding)何時會看到類似的成長?

  • We also know that Chinese customers are less willing than US customers to pay for SaaS. So do you think that, that means that the future commercialization of Chinese AI coding products might have less potential than we see with the US counterparts?

    我們也知道,相較於美國客戶,中國客戶對SaaS的付費意願較低。那您是否認為,這意味著中國AI程式碼產品未來的商業化潛力,可能不如我們在美國同業身上看到的那麼大?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • (interpreted) Thank you. Well, the way we define our MaaS platform, Bailian Model Studio, is as an open AI inferencing platform. Certainly at present, the majority of Bailian's revenue is driven by our own proprietary models. But in contrast to the AI start-ups in China, I think that we are investing at a much higher scale and across a much broader range of different model types. In contrast, those start-ups may tend to focus on a very narrow particular vertical segment and they can move rapidly ahead with that kind of focus.

    (口譯)謝謝。我們對MaaS平台——百鍊模型工作室——的定義,是一個開放的AI推理平台。當然,目前百鍊的大部分收入來自我們自有的專有模型。但相較於中國的AI新創,我認為我們的投資規模更大,且覆蓋的模型類型範圍更廣。相對地,那些新創往往聚焦在非常狹窄的特定垂直領域,並能在這種聚焦下快速推進。

  • And strictly in terms of our MaaS business, I think those AI start-ups really are partners rather than competitors. But in Alibaba, we particularly place emphasis on our model capabilities and developing them across all different spaces and all verticals to serve a very broad and diverse set of needs, including our coding model capabilities, including image-based models, so both on Wanxiang and HappyHorse as well as these new world models and, of course, voice models as well. So we aim to provide all different kinds of models to meet all different kinds of needs. And this is different, I think, from those start-ups. And at the same time, those start-ups are our partners.

    而就我們的MaaS業務本身而言,我認為那些AI新創更像是合作夥伴,而非競爭對手。但在阿里巴巴,我們特別重視模型能力,並在各個領域、各個垂直行業全面發展,以服務非常廣泛且多元的需求,包括我們的程式碼模型能力、影像類模型(包括萬相與HappyHorse),以及這些新的世界模型,當然也包括語音模型。因此,我們的目標是提供各種類型的模型,以滿足各種不同需求。我認為這與那些新創有所不同。同時,那些新創也是我們的合作夥伴。

  • Okay. The other part of your question was about when we can see a similar kind of growth in China as is being witnessed in the US around AI coding. And I would say in terms of what we're seeing, based on the trends that we see on Bailian as well as the experience of some of these AI start-ups in China who work closely with us, I would say China is already there.

    好的。您問題的另一部分是,何時能在中國看到類似美國AI程式碼所呈現的成長。我想說,從我們在百鍊上看到的趨勢,以及一些與我們密切合作的中國AI新創的經驗來看,我會說中國其實已經到了那個階段。

  • Most of the growth that we're seeing in utilization from, say, November or December of last year through to May of this year has been driven by capability upgrades in terms of coding. And these models are not able to replace software engineers. Basically, they're able to solve a wide array of very complex tasks beyond just coding, per se, in any kind of digitalized productivity scenario.

    我們看到的使用量成長中,大部分是由去年11月或12月到今年5月期間,程式碼能力升級所驅動。而這些模型並不能取代軟體工程師。基本上,它們能在任何數位化的生產力場景中,解決不僅僅是寫程式本身的、各式各樣非常複雜的任務。

  • So we've seen AI coating capabilities improve significantly in both the US and in China, and these capabilities are capable of supporting much more than just a coding, per se. It can address a whole wide range of very complex tasks in the workplace insofar as those tasks can be digitalized. So looking ahead to the next two to three years, we see this as a very, very important growth driver.

    因此,我們看到美國與中國的AI「coating」能力都有顯著提升,而這些能力所能支援的遠不止於寫程式本身。只要工作中的任務可以被數位化,它就能處理職場中非常廣泛且複雜的任務。展望未來兩到三年,我們認為這將是一個非常、非常重要的成長驅動因素。

  • On your other comment, we have also taken note of the lower willingness in China to pay for SaaS. However, I think that is poised to change as the models become increasingly powerful and are able to truly solve for very complex tasks, very complex problems.

    關於您另一個評論,我們也注意到中國對SaaS的付費意願較低。不過,我認為隨著模型變得愈來愈強大,並且能真正解決非常複雜的任務與問題,這種情況有望改變。

  • As they are providing truly valuable intelligence, I think we can expect to see the same demand for that kind of service in China as in the US. In a certain sense, when the value provided by tokens exceeds the cost of those tokens, the demand for tokens will become infinite in a sense. So we see growth in AI demand as a long-term certainty.

    當它們提供真正有價值的智慧時,我認為我們可以預期在中國也會出現與美國相同的此類服務需求。某種意義上,當token所提供的價值超過token的成本時,對token的需求在某種程度上將變得近乎無限。因此,我們將AI需求的成長視為長期的確定性。

  • And I can also share some numbers with you in terms of the growth that we're seeing on our own Bailian platform from November, December last year through the May of this year. It's higher than a 10 times growth. In terms of our ARR, it's already over RMB8 billion. And I think this quarter, it's highly certain that we can achieve ARR of over RMB10 billion.

    我也可以和您分享一些數據,關於我們自有百鍊平台從去年11、12月到今年5月所看到的成長。成長超過10倍。以我們的ARR來看,已經超過人民幣80億元。而且我認為本季我們非常確定可以達到超過人民幣100億元的ARR。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ellie Jiang, Macquarie.

    Ellie Jiang,麥格理。

  • Ellie Jiang - Analyst

    Ellie Jiang - Analyst

  • Good evening, management and thank you very much for taking my question. Just wanted to stay on the topic of the global comparisons. So if you look at it globally, the overseas peers seems to have captured the most immediate ROIs in enterprise agentic workflows, whereas for the consumer end, the monetization would remain a bit lagged.

    晚上好,管理層,謝謝您回答我的問題。我想延續全球比較這個話題。如果從全球來看,海外同業似乎在企業端的代理式工作流程(agentic workflows)中獲得了最即時的投資回報(ROI),而在消費者端,變現仍相對滯後一些。

  • So going forward, considering that Alibaba is investing kind of in multi-fronts for infrastructure, models, cloud and Qwen app, how do we evaluate the strategic priority and resources allocation between 2B and 2C initiatives? If going forward enterprise side continues to gain more traction, will we consider gradually shifting more resources away from Qwen app to cloud and MaaS? Thank you.

    那麼展望未來,考量阿里巴巴在基礎設施、模型、雲端以及通義千問(Qwen)App等多條戰線投入,我們應如何評估2B與2C計畫之間的策略優先順序與資源配置?如果未來企業端持續獲得更多動能,我們是否會考慮逐步將更多資源從通義千問App轉向雲端與MaaS?謝謝。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • (interpreted) Thanks for that question. And it's a good question. But I think, fundamentally, from the perspective of AI development, it's really all about a paradigm shift in computing and it's about leveraging this new technology to help users, whoever they are, to complete tasks and solve problems. And that applies equally on the 2C side as well as on the 2B side.

    (口譯)謝謝這個問題。這確實是個好問題。但我認為從AI發展的角度來看,根本上這是一場運算範式的轉變,核心在於運用這項新技術,幫助使用者——不論他們是誰——完成任務並解決問題。這同樣適用於2C端與2B端。

  • Now certainly, at present, we see higher willingness to pay on the 2B side because it's easier to show a business case with compelling ROI for a business. And at present, most of our infrastructure resources are therefore channeled to the 2B side. But at the end of the day, AI ultimately is an invention that's there to be a helper and assistant to humans, to help humans with a whole range of things spanning their own daily life, their studies and their work. And what AI does really is the same across all of those scenarios. It's about solving problems. And that's true for 2B and for 2C.

    當然,就目前而言,我們看到2B端的付費意願更高,因為對企業來說更容易用具說服力的ROI來建立商業案例。因此,目前我們的大部分基礎設施資源也被導向2B端。但歸根結底,AI最終是一項用來成為人類助手與幫手的發明,協助人們處理涵蓋日常生活、學習與工作等各種事情。而AI在所有這些場景中所做的事情本質上是一樣的。就是解決問題。這對2B與2C都成立。

  • So certainly, there's less willingness to pay today for 2C, but we're already seeing a business model where consumers are paying for individual usage in the US. And I'm confident that the same will come to be the case in China, especially as the technology improves, as it's better able to help them solve real problems in their daily lives. So we think that ultimately, this will be the same business model internationally. And I think we'll probably get there in China in the next, say, one to two years.

    所以,雖然今天2C端的付費意願較低,但我們已經在美國看到一種商業模式:消費者為個別使用付費。我有信心,隨著技術進步、能更好地幫助他們解決日常生活中的真實問題,中國也會出現同樣的情況。因此,我們認為最終在全球範圍內,這會是相同的商業模式。而我認為在中國大概在未來一到兩年內就會達到。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joyce Ju, Bank of America.

    Joyce Ju,美國銀行。

  • Joyce Ju - Analyst

    Joyce Ju - Analyst

  • (interpreted) Thanks, management. I have a follow-up question also on the future growth of the cloud business. And I'd just like to understand what your view is on EBITA margins in the cloud business over the next few quarters. Do you think as this business accelerates, we can expect to see similar margins as we see in your international peers?

    (口譯) 謝謝,管理層。我也有一個關於雲業務未來成長的追問。我想了解你們對未來幾個季度雲業務 EBITA 利潤率的看法。你們認為隨著這項業務加速,我們是否可以期待看到與你們海外同業相近的利潤率?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • (interpreted) I think when it comes to the deep penetration of AI technology across all different industries, we're still really in the early days of that long process. But our objective is clear. Our objective is to achieve growth, to drive growth, to drive growth in token consumption and to acquire larger market share. We aim to maintain growth that is faster than the market average in order to gain larger market share and firmly cement our absolute market leadership position. So those are the primary objectives, and margin is still secondary.

    (口譯) 我認為,當談到 AI 技術在各行各業的深度滲透時,我們其實仍處於這個長期過程的早期階段。但我們的目標很明確。我們的目標是實現成長、推動成長,推動 token 消耗的成長並取得更大的市場份額。我們希望維持快於市場平均的成長,以取得更大的市場份額,並牢固鞏固我們絕對的市場領導地位。因此,這些是主要目標,而利潤率仍是次要的。

  • The other thing to be pointed out is that for the next three or even five years to come, there are physical constraints on production, production capacity for chips, for memory, for the physical things that are needed to support all this growth in demand. An advantage that we have in Alibaba Cloud is the scale of our customer base as well as the scale effect from all of the CapEx that we've put in over these years. But in this environment of market scarcity, we're already seeing that the cost for us to deploy one new server this year double what that same server would have cost a year ago. So the cost inflation has been over 100%.

    另外需要指出的是,在未來三年甚至五年,晶片、記憶體等支撐需求成長所需的實體物料,其生產與產能都存在物理性限制。我們在阿里雲的優勢在於客戶基礎的規模,以及多年來投入資本開支所帶來的規模效應。但在當前市場供給稀缺的環境下,我們已經看到,今年部署一台新伺服器的成本,是一年前同款伺服器成本的兩倍。也就是說,成本通膨超過 100%。

  • So given that higher replacement cost effect, we have a certain pricing power with respect to new customers and also old customers. So I think in the long term, the asset pricing effect will be positive for our revenues going forward.

    因此,鑑於更高的重置成本效應,我們對新客戶以及既有客戶都具備一定的定價能力。所以我認為,長期來看,資產定價效應將對我們未來的營收帶來正面影響。

  • Secondly, we see very rapid growth in MaaS, as we reported to you. And inherently, as we've said, MaaS represents a much higher level of gross margin than IaaS or traditional types of IT operations. So as demand for inference continues to grow exponentially, we expect this will be very positive for gross margin. And due to the optimization of our reasoning technology, the output capacity, the productivity of a single card will continue to rise.

    第二,我們看到 MaaS 的成長非常迅速,正如我們向各位所報告的。而且如我們所說,MaaS 天生就代表著比 IaaS 或傳統 IT 運營更高的毛利率水準。因此,隨著推理需求持續呈指數級成長,我們預期這將對毛利率非常有利。並且由於我們推理技術的優化,單卡的輸出能力與生產力將持續提升。

  • An additional factor is as we continue to scale up the deployment of T-Head, the T-Head chips represent the highest value for money compute power on the cloud platform, and that also will contribute to a better gross margin. But for several objective reasons that I've outlined, I think, overall, in the next two to three years, we can expect to see a significantly higher gross margin for Alibaba Cloud, and we can expect to start to see that in the next one to two quarters.

    另一個因素是,隨著我們持續擴大平頭哥(T-Head)的部署,平頭哥晶片在雲平台上提供最高的性價比算力,這也將有助於提升毛利率。但基於我剛才概述的幾個客觀原因,我認為整體而言,在未來兩到三年,我們可以預期阿里雲的毛利率將顯著提高,而且我們預期在未來一到兩個季度就會開始看到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gary Yu, Morgan Stanley.

    Gary Yu,摩根士丹利。

  • Gary Yu - Analyst

    Gary Yu - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I have a question regarding CapEx. So what kind of level of CapEx investment is required in order to satisfy the demand from both MaaS and also the long-term cloud revenue? And also management mentioned about T-Head opportunity. What is the current penetration of T-Head being deployed on AliCloud? And as this penetration increase, what margin uplift we should expect from our in-house chip? Thank you.

    你好。謝謝給我提問的機會。我有一個關於資本開支(CapEx) 的問題。為了滿足 MaaS 的需求以及雲業務長期營收成長,需要什麼樣水準的 CapEx 投資?另外管理層提到平頭哥的機會。目前平頭哥在阿里雲上的部署滲透率是多少?隨著滲透率提升,我們應該期待自研晶片帶來多少利潤率提升?謝謝。

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • (interpreted) Thanks. So the first question is quite an important one. And actually, in our prepared remarks delivered at the last quarter's earnings call, we set out a forecast for the coming five years for revenues, and it was a very target. But essentially, I think if you compare where things were in the year 2022 before this explosive growth in AI models and what we expect to need in 2033, I think we're talking about a 10x increase. So we need 10 times the amount of data center infrastructure compared to what we had in 2022.

    (口譯) 謝謝。第一個問題非常重要。其實在上一季度的業績電話會議中,我們在事先準備的發言裡提出了未來五年的營收預測,那是一個非常明確的目標。但本質上,如果你比較 2022 年(在 AI 模型爆發式成長之前)的情況與我們預期在 2033 年所需要的規模,我認為我們談的是 10 倍的增長。也就是說,相較於 2022 年,我們需要 10 倍的資料中心基礎設施。

  • But there are different ways to get that compute capacity. Some of it can be CapEx. Part of it can also be OpEx. And we're actually now acquiring quite a bit of computing capacity using OpEx. The situation is complex today for reasons we've discussed. But I think it's likely, given that kind of investment, that we will overshoot the original CapEx figure that we had stated of RMB380 billion.

    但取得這些算力有不同方式。其中一部分可以透過 CapEx。另一部分也可以透過 OpEx。而我們目前確實正以 OpEx 的方式取得相當多的算力。由於我們已討論過的原因,當前情況較為複雜。但我認為,在這樣的投資需求下,我們很可能會超出先前所提到的人民幣 3,800 億元 CapEx 原始數字。

  • But at the same time, we can acquire some compute through OpEx, and as we have our own proprietary T-Head chips, we can actually also sell AI servers, leveraging those chips to other computing centers or we can co-build computing centers with others. So there are different ways that we can get to where we need to get. But the bottom line is that the demand for compute infrastructure is going to be 10x of 2022.

    但同時,我們也可以透過 OpEx 取得部分算力;而且由於我們擁有自研的平頭哥晶片,我們也可以利用這些晶片向其他算力中心出售 AI 伺服器,或與他人共同建設算力中心。因此,我們有不同方式可以達到所需的目標。但歸根結底,算力基礎設施的需求將是 2022 年的 10 倍。

  • Yeah. So in terms of our T-Head proprietary chips, they can be deployed across a very large part of our infrastructure, and not just compute chips, but we have a full stack including memory. But at present, the ratio is still relatively low, and that's because of constraints around production capacity in China, which has been limited. Of course, it's been growing. But as we deploy more and more of our own proprietary T-Head chips, the new chips will certainly contribute very, very significantly to gross margin expansion.

    是的。就我們的平頭哥自研晶片而言,它們可以部署在我們基礎設施中非常大的一部分,不僅是運算晶片,我們還有包含記憶體在內的全棧能力。但目前的比例仍相對較低,原因是中國境內的產能受限,供給有限。當然,這個比例一直在提升。但隨著我們部署越來越多自研的平頭哥晶片,新晶片必然會對毛利率擴張作出非常、非常顯著的貢獻。

  • It's true to say that domestically produced semiconductors in China lag behind the leading overseas ones in terms of energy efficiency and production efficiency. However, if you look at globally leading AI chip vendors today, their gross margins are as high as 60% or even 80%. So as we ramp up domestic chip production and the capabilities improve, I think there's a lot of room for our chips to be providing very high value for money as compared to that 60% to 80% gross margin than other vendors are taking.

    可以說,中國國產半導體在能效與製造效率方面仍落後於海外領先產品。然而,如果你看當今全球領先的 AI 晶片供應商,它們的毛利率高達 60% 甚至 80%。因此,隨著國產晶片產能提升、能力改善,我認為我們的晶片相較於其他供應商所取得的 60% 到 80% 毛利率,仍有很大的空間能以更高的性價比提供價值。

  • Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

    Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's earnings call. We appreciate your time and participation, and we look forward to speaking with you soon.

    謝謝。今天的業績電話會議到此結束。感謝各位撥冗參與,我們期待很快再與各位交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. You now may disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。各位現在可以掛線。

  • Editor

    Editor

  • Portions of this transcript that are marked (interpreted) were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.

    本逐字稿中標註為(口譯)的部分,為現場電話會議中由口譯員轉述的內容。口譯員由本活動的主辦公司提供。