阿里巴巴 (BABA) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營收為人民幣2478億元,若排除 Sun Art 與 Intime,營收年增15%;中國電商 CMR 年增10%,雲端智能收入年增34%
    • 本季未提供新財測或下修指引
    • 受戰略性投資影響,調整後 EBITDA 年減78%,GAAP 淨利年減53%;盤後市場反應未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 相關產品連續九季年增三位數,推動雲端收入加速成長
      • 外部雲端客戶需求強勁,AI 應用滲透加深,推升運算與儲存需求
      • 快商業(Quick Commerce)業務規模擴大,單位經濟顯著改善,帶動用戶黏著與平均訂單價提升
      • Amap(高德地圖)日活創新高,Street Stars 功能大幅提升用戶參與度,展現本地生活服務潛力
    • 風險:
      • 快商業與 AI+雲端持續高額投資,短期壓抑 EBITDA 與現金流
      • AI 伺服器與相關供應鏈產能受限,無法完全滿足客戶需求,未來2-3年供給仍為瓶頸
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 中國電商 CMR:年增10%,受惠於 Quanzhantui 滲透率提升與軟體服務費增加
    • 快商業業務收入:年增60%,單位經濟損失較7-8月減半,AOV 雙位數成長,非飲品訂單占比超過75%
    • 雲端智能收入:年增34%,外部客戶收入年增29%,AI 相關產品收入占外部客戶收入超過20%
    • Amap(高德地圖)日活:10月達3.6億,Street Stars 功能日活超過7000萬,日均用戶評論年增三倍
  4. 財務預測
    • 未提供具體營收、毛利率預估
    • CapEx 三年規劃原為人民幣3800億元,管理層表示可能需進一步上調以滿足 AI 需求
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 雲端業務成長展望?外部收入驅動因素為何?
      A: AI 需求極為強勁,客戶訂單增長超過伺服器部署速度,AI 應用滲透企業各環節,推動運算與儲存需求,未來 AI 需求成長具高度信心。
    • Q: 快商業與核心電商的協同進展?對 CMR 與 EBITDA 展望?
      A: 快商業單位經濟顯著改善,訂單結構優化、物流成本下降,AOV 雙位數成長,GMV 占比提升。未來將持續推動協同,短期因投資規模大,EBITDA 有波動,預期下季投資規模將明顯縮小,CMR 及 EBITDA 仍會有短期波動。
    • Q: 快商業效率提升後,成本節省如何分配?對 UE 成長空間看法?
      A: 將持續提升用戶體驗與AOV,轉化新用戶為高黏著用戶,未來仍有進一步提升空間,但會依市場競爭動態調整策略。
    • Q: 未來三年 CapEx 規劃與增量收入關聯?
      A: 原規劃三年人民幣3800億元,現有投資速度仍追不上需求,未來不排除進一步擴大 CapEx,增量收入與投資回報目前難以量化,因 AI 應用場景多元且毛利率差異大。
    • Q: AI 投資回報(ROIC)如何評估?資源分配優先順序?
      A: 首要確保基礎模型持續迭代,解鎖高價值應用與客戶,推動 token 消耗與付費意願提升。推進推理服務(如 Bailian 平台)高效運作,並依客戶價值分配資源。供給面短期仍受限,預期2-3年 AI 資源持續供不應求。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Alibaba Group's September quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們、先生們,大家好。感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加阿里巴巴集團2025年9月季度業績電話會議。(操作說明)

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Lydia Lu, Head of Investor Relations of Alibaba Group. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話交給阿里巴巴集團投資者關係負責人呂麗雅女士。請繼續。

  • Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

    Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Good day, everyone. Welcome to our September quarter 2025 earnings conference call. With me today from Alibaba are Joe Tsai, Chairman; Eddie Wu, Chief Executive Officer; Toby Xu, Chief Financial Officer; Jiang Fan, Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba E-commerce Business Group.

    謝謝。大家好。歡迎參加我們2025年9月季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我出席的阿里巴巴代表有:董事長蔡崇信;執行長吳宇森;財務長徐東;阿里巴巴電子商務集團執行長蔣帆。

  • I would like to remind you that this call is also being webcast on our copy website. A replay of the call will be available on our website later today. Just a few forward-looking statements before we begin today. Today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements, particularly statements about our business and financial results that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

    我想提醒各位,本次電話會議也會在我們的網站上進行網路直播。本次電話會議的錄音回放將於今日稍後在我們的網站上提供。在今天正式開始之前,先做幾點前瞻性陳述。今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,特別是關於我們業務和財務表現的陳述,這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

  • Please refer to the safe harbor statements that appear in our press release and investor presentation provided today. Please note that certain financial measures that we use on this call are expressed on a non-GAAP basis. Our GAAP results and reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release.

    請參閱我們今天發布的新聞稿和投資者簡報中的安全港聲明。請注意,我們在本次電話會議中使用的某些財務指標是按非GAAP準則表示的。我們的 GAAP 結果以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標的調整表可在我們的獲利新聞稿中找到。

  • With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Eddie.

    接下來,我要把電話交給艾迪。

  • Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Welcome to Alibaba Group's quarterly earnings call. Over the past quarter, Alibaba delivered steady and healthy growth. Our total revenue increased 15% year over year, excluding Sun Art and Intime. Our continued investment in core businesses is yielding results with China E-commerce CMR growing 10% and Cloud Intelligence revenue rising 34%.

    歡迎參加阿里巴巴集團季度財報電話會議。過去一個季度,阿里巴巴實現了穩定健康的成長。不計入大華和銀泰,我們的總營收年增15%。我們對核心業務的持續投資正在取得成效,中國電子商務客戶關係管理收入成長了 10%,雲端智慧收入成長了 34%。

  • Let me walk you through the latest developments across our AI plus Cloud and Consumption businesses. Sustained strong demand for AI and rising usage of public cloud drove Alibaba's Cloud 34% revenue growth this quarter, while revenue from external customers accelerated by 29%. AI-related products continued to post triple-digit year-over-year growth for the ninth consecutive quarter.

    讓我帶您了解我們在人工智慧、雲端運算和消費業務方面的最新進展。持續強勁的人工智慧需求和公有雲使用量的增加推動阿里巴巴雲端本季營收成長 34%,而來自外部客戶的營收成長了 29%。人工智慧相關產品連續第九個季度實現年成長三位數。

  • In the cloud computing market, two major trends are becoming increasingly apparent. First is AI applications scale, more developers and the enterprise customers are choosing vendors with full stock AI technology portfolios. Second, Customers are deepening and broadening their use of AI, which is significantly increasing demand for compute, storage, and other traditional cloud services.

    在雲端運算市場,兩大趨勢正變得越來越明顯。首先是人工智慧應用規模,越來越多的開發者和企業客戶選擇擁有完整人工智慧技術組合的供應商。其次,客戶正在加深和擴大對人工智慧的使用,這大大增加了對運算、儲存和其他傳統雲端服務的需求。

  • Together, these forces are accelerating revenue growth driven by external customer demand.

    這些因素共同作用,加速了由外部客戶需求驅動的收入成長。

  • This quarter, we continued to strengthen our full stack AI capabilities, spanning high-performance AI infrastructure, foundation models and AI development frameworks. Our flagship model, Qwen3-Max, ranks among the global leaders in benchmarks for real-world coding tasks, agent tool use capabilities and other specialized valuations.

    本季度,我們持續加強全端人工智慧能力,涵蓋高效能人工智慧基礎設施、基礎模型和人工智慧開發框架。我們的旗艦模型 Qwen3-Max 在現實世界編碼任務基準測試、代理工具使用能力和其他專業評估方面均位列全球領先行列。

  • Our full stack AI capabilities are now a defining competitive advantage. Alibaba Cloud is gaining market share across multiple segments. In the hybrid cloud market, Alibaba Cloud has become a key player, growing more than 20% year over year, outpacing the industry and steadily expanding market share.

    我們全端式人工智慧能力現在已成為一項決定性的競爭優勢。阿里雲在多個細分市場不斷擴大市場份額。在混合雲市場,阿里雲已成為關鍵參與者,年增長率超過20%,超越行業平均水平,市場份額穩步擴大。

  • Our Financial Cloud business is also growing faster than the market with market share continuing to rise. In China's AI cloud market, we are also the clear leader with a market share larger than the combined total of the second to fourth largest providers.

    我們的金融雲業務成長速度也超過市場平均水平,市佔率持續上升。在中國人工智慧雲端市場,我們也是絕對的領導者,市佔率比第二至第四大供應商的總和還要大。

  • Recently, businesses such as the NBA, Marriott, China UnionPay, and Bosch have partnered with Alibaba Cloud on AI initiatives. Last week, we officially launched the Qwen app, which aims to be the most advanced personal AIS system powered by our latest models. In the first week of its public data, the Qwen app has already surpassed to 10 million in new downloads.

    最近,NBA、萬豪酒店、中國銀聯和博世等企業都與阿里雲在人工智慧專案上展開了合作。上週,我們正式推出了 Qwen 應用,該應用旨在成為由我們最新型號驅動的最先進的個人 AIS 系統。Qwen 應用程式在公開資料發布的第一周,新增下載量就已經突破了 1,000 萬次。

  • The launch of the Qwen app marks Alibaba's commitment to both AI for enterprise and AI for consumer. In enterprise-focused AI, our goal is to build a world-leading full-stock AI provider serving businesses across all industries. For consumers, we aim to build native AI-first applications by leveraging our best-in-class models and Alibaba's extensive ecosystem.

    Qwen app 的推出標誌著阿里巴巴致力於企業級人工智慧和消費者級人工智慧的發展。在以企業為中心的 AI 領域,我們的目標是打造世界領先的全端式 AI 供應商,服務於各行各業的企業。對於消費者,我們的目標是利用我們一流的模型和阿里巴巴廣泛的生態系統,建立原生AI優先應用程式。

  • On the one hand, Qwen3-Max's intelligence and world-class tool use capabilities combined with Alibaba's rich consumer and lifestyle use cases contributed to exceptional user retention in the Qwen app's beta release. We believe this is the right moment to scale our consumer AI efforts.

    一方面,Qwen3-Max 的智慧和世界一流的工具使用能力,加上阿里巴巴豐富的消費者和生活方式應用案例,促成了 Qwen 應用測試版中卓越的用戶留存率。我們認為現在是擴大消費者人工智慧投入的最佳時機。

  • On the other hand, the synergy between AI and the broader Alibaba ecosystem is a powerful multiplier. Alibaba is the only company in China with both a leading large model and extensive lifestyle and commerce use cases. Qwen will gradually integrate e-commerce map navigation local services and more becoming an AI-powered entry point for everyday life. With AI innovation and ecosystem collaboration reinforcing each other, we're confident in our ability to deliver substantial user value.

    另一方面,人工智慧與更廣泛的阿里巴巴生態系統之間的協同作用具有強大的倍增效應。阿里巴巴是中國唯一一家既擁有領先的大型企業模式,又擁有廣泛的生活方式和商業應用案例的公司。Qwen 將逐步整合電子商務、地圖導航、本地服務等,成為人工智慧驅動的日常生活入口。人工智慧創新與生態系統協作相輔相成,我們有信心為使用者創造巨大的價值。

  • In consumption, we continue to deepen collaboration across businesses and the benefits of our large integrated platform are becoming increasingly evident. This quarter, China e-commerce CMR grew 10%. Our Quick Commerce business saw a significant improvement in unit economics with creator fulfillment efficiencies, stronger user retention, higher average order value, and expanding scale. The growth of quick commerce business contributed to rapid growth in Taobao app's monthly active consumers and supported CMR expansion.

    在消費領域,我們不斷深化跨業務合作,我們大型整合平台的優勢也日益顯現。本季中國電子商務客戶關係管理 (CMR) 成長了 10%。我們的快速商務業務在單位經濟效益方面取得了顯著改善,包括創作者履約效率提高、用戶留存率增強、平均訂單價值提高以及規模擴大。快速電商業務的成長促進了淘寶App月活躍用戶的快速成長,並支持了CMR的擴張。

  • Brands on Tmall are also accelerating their adoption of on-demand retail as of October 31, approximately 3,500 brands on Tmall has onboarded their online stores to our Quick Commerce business. Going forward, we will further enhance synergy between Quick Commerce and the broader Alibaba ecosystem, continue improving unit economics and meet consumers' fast-growing demand for immediate access to diverse products and services.

    天貓品牌也正在加速採用按需零售模式。截至 10 月 31 日,天貓上約有 3500 個品牌已將其線上商店連接到我們的快速商務業務。展望未來,我們將進一步加強快商城與阿里巴巴生態系的綜效,持續提升單位經濟效益,滿足消費者即時取得多元化產品與服務日益增長的需求。

  • On October 1, Amap's daily active users reached a historical high of 360 million. In September, we launched the Amap Street Stars feature has significantly boosted user engagement. In October, Amap Street Stars averaged more than 70 million daily active users with average daily user reviews more than triple the amount of the same period last year, indicating strong future growth potential. Amap Street Stars has built a trust-based rating system for local offline services using user consented metrics such as the users credit rating.

    10月1日,Amap的每日活躍用戶數達到歷史新高3.6億。9 月推出的 Amap 街景明星功能顯著提升了用戶參與。10 月份,Amap Street Stars 的日均活躍用戶超過 7,000 萬,日均用戶評論數是去年同期的三倍多,顯示未來成長潛力巨大。Amap Street Stars 為本地離線服務建立了一個基於信任的評級系統,該系統使用用戶同意的指標,例如用戶的信用評級。

  • We believe that enhancing consumer sustainable strengthening consumer confidence, enabling merchants to focus on operations while giving consumers greater peace of mind, supporting the healthy and sustainable growth of the local off-line services sector.

    我們相信,增強消費者的可持續性可以增強消費者信心,使商家能夠專注於運營,同時讓消費者更加安心,從而支持本地線下服務業的健康可持續發展。

  • Looking ahead, we'll continue investing decisively in our two core strategic pillars: AI plus Cloud and Consumption. We will advance both enterprise and consumer-focused AI unlock deeper synergies across Alibaba's businesses and use these entrants to drive Alibaba's long-term growth and carry the company to the next level.

    展望未來,我們將繼續大力投資我們的兩大核心策略支柱:人工智慧、雲端運算和消費。我們將推動企業和消費者導向的AI技術,釋放阿里巴巴各業務之間更深層的協同效應,並利用這些新進業者推動阿里巴巴的長期成長,將公司帶入新的發展階段。

  • Thank you. I will now hand over to Toby.

    謝謝。現在我將把麥克風交給托比。

  • Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

    Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Eddie. We are continuing our focus and discipline on AI plus Cloud and Consumption, and we see strong momentum from these strategies with gains in technology, market share, consumers, and user engagements.

    謝謝你,艾迪。我們將繼續專注於人工智慧、雲端運算和消費領域,並看到這些策略取得了強勁的發展勢頭,在技術、市場份額、消費者和用戶參與度方面均有所提升。

  • Now let's look at the financial results. On a consolidated basis, total revenue was RMB247.8 billion. Excluding revenue from Sun Art and Intime, revenue on a like-for-like basis would have grown by 15% year over year.

    現在我們來看看財務業績。合併後的總收入為人民幣2478億元。若剔除大潤發和銀泰的收入,以可比口徑計算,營收將年增 15%。

  • Total adjusted EBITDA decreased 78%, primarily due to our strategic investments in Quick Commerce business to grow its user base and transaction volume, partly offset by double-digit revenue growth in China E-commerce Group and Cloud Intelligence Group and improved operating efficiencies across various businesses including AIDC and Wujin DME.

    經調整後的總 EBITDA 下降了 78%,主要原因是我們對快速商務業務進行了戰略投資,以擴大其用戶群和交易量,部分被中國電子商務集團和雲智能集團兩位數的收入增長以及包括 AIDC 和武進 DME 在內的各項業務運營效率的提高所抵消。

  • Our GAAP net income was RMB20.6 billion, a decrease of 53%, primarily attributable to the decrease in income from operations. Operating cash flow was RMB10.1 billion, a decrease of RMB21.3 billion compared to the same quarter last year. The year-over-year decrease was mainly attributed to our increased strategic investments in Quick Commerce business.

    我們的GAAP淨利為人民幣206億元,下降了53%,主要原因是營業收入下降。經營活動產生的現金流量為人民幣101億元,比去年同期減少了人民幣213億元。年比下降主要歸因於我們對快速商務業務的策略投資增加。

  • Free cash flow was an outflow of RMB21.8 billion which reflected our significant investments in Quick Commerce business and AI plus Cloud infrastructure, we are reinvesting our free cash flow to create a winning quick commerce business and to be a leader in AI. Our strong balance sheet backed by USD41 billion in net cash gives us confidence for this reinvestment strategy.

    自由現金流為人民幣218億元的流出,反映了我們對速賣通業務和人工智慧及雲端基礎設施的大量投資。我們將自由現金流再投資,打造成功的速賣通業務,並成為人工智慧領域的領導者。我們擁有410億美元的淨現金,強勁的資產負債表讓我們對這項再投資策略充滿信心。

  • Revenue from Alibaba China E-commerce Group was RMB132.6 billion, an increase of 16%. Customer management revenue increased 10% primarily due to the improvement of take rate, which benefited from the increasing penetration of Quanzhantui and the addition of software service fees.

    阿里巴巴中國電子商務集團營收達人民幣1,326億元,年增16%。客戶管理收入成長了 10%,主要原因是成交率的提高,這得益於全站推的滲透率不斷提高以及軟體服務費的增加。

  • Revenue from our Quick Commerce business increased 60%. During the quarter, we executed our plan to grow the scale of our quick commerce business, improve user experience and narrow UE loss. The adjusted EBITDA from Alibaba China E-commerce Group was RMB10.5 billion. Excluding loss from our Quick Commerce business, our Alibaba China E-commerce Group EBITDA would have grown at mid-single-digit year over year for the quarter. Going forward, this adjusted EBITDA may fluctuate quarter over quarter due to intense competition and a significant investment in user experience.

    我們的快速商務業務收入成長了 60%。本季度,我們執行了擴大快速商務業務規模、改善使用者體驗和減少 UE 損失的計畫。阿里巴巴中國電子商務集團的調整後 EBITDA 為 105 億元。如果剔除快速商務業務的虧損,阿里巴巴中國電子商務集團的 EBITDA 本季年增率將達到個位數中段。展望未來,由於激烈的市場競爭和對用戶體驗的大量投資,調整後的 EBITDA 可能會逐季波動。

  • Revenue from AIDC grew 10%. AliExpress, in particular, has developed AliExpress direct model that leverages local inventories in over 30 countries. AliExpress has also enhanced the range of our product offerings by launching the Brand+ program, providing go-to-market solutions to Chinese brands going overseas. A combination of logistics optimization and investment efficiency enhancement resulted in AIDC's adjusted EBITDA profit of RMB162 million this quarter.

    AIDC收入成長10%。尤其是 AliExpress,已經開發出 AliExpress Direct 模式,利用了 30 多個國家的本地庫存。AliExpress 也透過推出 Brand+ 計劃,增強了我們的產品供應範圍,為走向海外的中國品牌提供市場推廣解決方案。透過物流優化與投資效率提升,AIDC本季調整後EBITDA利潤為人民幣1.62億元。

  • Looking ahead, while we continue to enhance operating efficiency, AIDC adjusted EBITDA may fluctuate quarter over quarter due to tactical investments in select markets.

    展望未來,儘管我們不斷提高營運效率,但由於在特定市場進行戰術性投資,AIDC 調整後的 EBITDA 可能會出現季度波動。

  • Our Cloud business delivered another quarter of accelerated growth as both growth of Cloud segment revenue and revenue from external customers accelerated to 34% and 29%, respectively. This momentum was primarily driven by public cloud revenue growth, including the increasing adoption of AI-related products.

    我們的雲端業務又一個季度實現了加速成長,雲端業務收入和來自外部客戶的收入分別加速成長至 34% 和 29%。這一勢頭主要由公有雲收入成長推動,其中包括人工智慧相關產品的日益普及。

  • AI-related product revenue continue to grow at triple-digit pace. AI-related product revenue this quarter accounted for over 20% of revenue from external customers with its contribution continue to increase. We are seeing accelerated adoption of our AI products across a broader range of enterprise customers with a growing focus on value-added applications, including coding assistance.

    人工智慧相關產品的收入持續以三位數的速度成長。本季人工智慧相關產品收入佔外部客戶收入的 20% 以上,且其貢獻持續成長。我們看到,越來越多的企業客戶正在加速採用我們的人工智慧產品,並且越來越關注增值應用,包括編碼輔助。

  • The adjusted EBITA margin remained relatively stable at 9%. We will continue to invest in customer growth and technology innovation to increase adoption of AI infrastructure cloud and strengthen our market leadership.

    調整後的 EBITA 利潤率保持相對穩定,為 9%。我們將繼續投資於客戶成長和技術創新,以提高人工智慧基礎設施雲端的採用率,並鞏固我們的市場領導地位。

  • All Other segment revenue was a decrease by 25% and mainly due to the disposal of Sun Art and Intime businesses. All Other adjusted EBITDA was a loss of RMB3.4 billion, primarily due to the increased investment in technology businesses, partly offset by the improving operating results of other businesses. Hujing DME has achieved profitability for three consecutive quarters.

    其他業務部門收入下降了 25%,主要原因是出售了 Sun Art 和 Intime 的業務。其他調整後 EBITDA 虧損 34 億元人民幣,主因是科技業務投資增加,部分被其他業務經營績效的改善所抵銷。湖京DME已連續三個季度獲利。

  • All Other segment comprises a set of innovative initiatives, including several strategic AI-driven technology infrastructure and businesses, including our foundation model and AI apps. We are excited to continue investing in these initiatives for future growth.

    其他所有業務板塊包含一系列創新舉措,包括多個策略性的人工智慧驅動技術基礎設施和業務,包括我們的基礎模型和人工智慧應用程式。我們很高興能夠繼續投資這些項目,以促進未來的發展。

  • Thank you, that's the end of our prepared remarks, we can open up for Q&A.

    謝謝,我們的演講到此結束,現在可以進入問答環節了。

  • Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

    Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Toby. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝你,托比。(操作說明)

  • Operator, please go ahead with Q&A session. Thank you.

    操作員,請開始問答環節。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Gary Yu, Morgan Stanley.

    (操作說明)Gary Yu,摩根士丹利。

  • Gary Yu - Analyst

    Gary Yu - Analyst

  • Congratulations on a strong set of results. My question is related to Cloud business. How should we look at the growth outlook going forward? Should we continue to expand growth to accelerate? And on the demand side, given we don't have a big AI company like in the US, how should we look at the key drivers driving the external revenue growth going forward?

    祝賀你們取得了優異的成績。我的問題與雲端運算業務有關。我們該如何看待未來的成長前景?我們是否應該繼續擴大成長以加速發展?從需求來看,鑑於我們沒有像美國那樣的大型人工智慧公司,我們應該如何看待推動未來外部收入成長的關鍵因素?

  • Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (spoken in foreign language)

    (用外語說)

  • Thank you for those questions. Let me start with the first one. Certainly, we see that customer demand for AI is -- remains very strong. In fact, we're not even able to keep pace with the growth in customer demand as in orders in terms of the pace at which we can deploy new servers. So we certainly do see the demand for is accelerating.

    謝謝你提出這些問題。讓我先從第一個說起。當然,我們看到客戶對人工智慧的需求依然非常強勁。事實上,就部署新伺服器的速度而言,我們甚至無法跟上客戶訂單成長的速度。因此,我們確實看到需求正在加速成長。

  • In terms of where that demand is coming from, it's really coming from all aspects of enterprise operations as AI adoption continues to not only accelerate but deepen with applications across product development through our manufacturing processes and also in terms of supporting the enterprises and customers use their products. So when all of those places AI adoption continues to deepen.

    至於這種需求來自哪裡,它實際上來自企業營運的各個方面,因為人工智慧的採用不僅在不斷加速,而且在產品開發、製造流程以及支援企業和客戶使用其產品等方面的應用也在不斷加深。因此,當所有這些地方的人工智慧應用不斷加深時。

  • And of course, all of this activity around model training and inference requires the use of compute as well. So essentially, we're talking about a huge potential and continually growing demand among real customers engaged in real world use cases. Therefore, our conviction in future AI demand growth is strong.

    當然,所有這些圍繞模型訓練和推理的活動也都需要用到計算能力。所以本質上,我們談論的是真實客戶在真實世界用例中蘊藏的巨大潛力和不斷增長的需求。因此,我們對未來人工智慧需求成長充滿信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kenneth Fong, UBS.

    Kenneth Fong,瑞銀集團。

  • Kenneth Fong - Analyst

    Kenneth Fong - Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong performance in our quick commerce initiative. Can management share some key progress for quick commerce and synergy to our core e-commerce so far. Given the synergy, what's the outlook for December quarter CMO and EBITDA for our core e-commerce?

    恭喜你們在快速商務計畫中取得優異成績。管理階層能否分享目前為止在快速商務和與我們核心電子商務綜效方面取得的一些關鍵進展?考慮到綜效,我們核心電子商務業務在 12 月季度的 CMO 和 EBITDA 前景如何?

  • Unidentified Company Representative 1

    Unidentified Company Representative 1

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Thank you for your question. Over the past few months, we've focused on optimizing our unit economics in quick commerce, while maintaining our market share. And we believe we've made significant progress on this front. The order mix has improved and the economies of scale from growing order volume has driven clear reductions in logistics costs.

    謝謝你的提問。過去幾個月,我們專注於優化快速零售的單位經濟效益,同時維持市場佔有率。我們相信,我們在這方面已經取得了重大進展。訂單結構得到改善,訂單量成長帶來的規模經濟效益顯著降低了物流成本。

  • Since November, the per order UE loss for quick commerce has been cut by 50% compared to July, August. So on this basis, quick commerce has maintained stable order share with GMV share holding steady and trending upward. And we're also seeing uplift in related physical e-commerce categories. Let me expand a bit further on those points. First, in terms of order mix optimization. Over the past two months, the share of higher average order value, higher AOV orders has increased.

    自 11 月以來,快速商務的每筆訂單 UE 損失與 7 月、8 月相比減少了 50%。因此,在此基礎上,快速商務保持了穩定的訂單份額,GMV份額保持穩定並呈上升趨勢。我們也看到相關的實體電商品類也出現了成長。讓我再詳細闡述這些觀點。首先,從訂單組合最佳化方面來看。過去兩個月,平均訂單價值較高的訂單比例增加。

  • According to the latest data, non-beverage orders now account for over 75% of total orders. Most recently, AOV for quick commerce has grown by double digits compared to August which has contributed to an increase in quick commerce's overall GMV share.

    根據最新數據,非飲料訂單目前佔總訂單的75%以上。最近,快速交易的平均訂單價值 (AOV) 與 8 月相比實現了兩位數的增長,這促進了快速交易整體 GMV 份額的增加。

  • On the second point about logistics as the order volume scales, quick commerce is realized in very clear economies of scale in fulfillment and logistics. Delivery speed is now faster than the same period last year while average logistics cost per order has declined significantly. In fact, the average cost per order is now lower than it was before we started making large-scale investments in quick harness. So these two factors together have enabled us to achieve our near-term target, namely cutting by half the per order loss versus July, August.

    關於物流的第二點,隨著訂單量的擴大,快速商業在履行和物流方面實現了非常明顯的規模經濟。目前配送速度比去年同期更快,而每筆訂單的平均物流成本也大幅下降。事實上,現在每筆訂單的平均成本比我們開始大規模投資快速線束之前還要低。因此,這兩個因素共同促成了我們實現近期目標,即與 7 月和 8 月相比,每筆訂單的虧損減少一半。

  • And importantly, during this phase of narrowing UE losses, both user retention and purchase frequency have outperformed management expectations.

    更重要的是,在縮小用戶流失的這個階段,用戶留存率和購買頻率都超過了管理階層的預期。

  • Fan Jiang - Chief Executive Officer, Alibaba E-commerce Business Group

    Fan Jiang - Chief Executive Officer, Alibaba E-commerce Business Group

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Beyond food delivery, we're also seeing rapid growth in retail categories via quick commerce, clearly driving growth across related categories and businesses, especially groceries, healthcare products, and the supermarket segment within physical e-commerce.

    除了食品配送之外,我們還看到零售類別透過快速商務實現了快速成長,這顯然推動了相關類別和業務的成長,尤其是實體電子商務中的雜貨、保健產品和超市領域。

  • For example, [Priko] and Tmall supermarket quick commerce orders are up 30% from August. Over recent months, we've also actively onboarded merchants and brands onto Taobao instant commerce, and we will further accelerate integration and synergy between key retail categories and quick commerce model going forward.

    例如,Priko 和天貓超市的快商訂單量較 8 月增加了 30%。近幾個月來,我們也積極地將商家和品牌引進淘寶即時商務平台,未來我們將進一步加速重點零售品類與即時商務模式的整合與協同。

  • So in summary, we firmly believe that the quick commerce model holds immense potential for synergy with the broader Alibaba ecosystem. In Phase 1, we successfully achieved rapid scale expansion. In Phase 2, UE optimization is progressing in line with our expectations, laying a solid foundation for the long-term sustainability of the quick commerce business and reinforcing our confidence in sustained long-term investment in quick commerce.

    綜上所述,我們堅信快速商務模式與更廣泛的阿里巴巴生態系統具有巨大的綜效潛力。第一階段,我們成功實現了快速規模擴張。在第二階段,UE 優化正按預期進行,為快速商務業務的長期永續發展奠定了堅實的基礎,並增強了我們對快速商務持續長期投資的信心。

  • In the next phase, we will continue to refine the user experience through operational upgrading with a focus on serving high-value users and to focus on expanding retail categories. Quick commerce is a core strategic pillar in the Taobao Tmall Group's platform upgrade. Our goal is to generate RMB1 trillion in GMV for the platform within three years, thereby driving market share gains across the related categories.

    在下一階段,我們將繼續透過營運升級來改善用戶體驗,重點服務高價值用戶,並專注於拓展零售類別。快速交易是淘寶天貓集團平台升級的核心策略支柱之一。我們的目標是在三年內為平台創造1兆元人民幣的商品交易總額,進而推動相關品類的市佔率成長。

  • Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

    Xu Hong - Chief Financial Officer

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • This is Toby. Let me take the second part of your question about CMR and EBITDA.

    這是托比。讓我來回答您關於 CMR 和 EBITDA 問題的第二部分。

  • So as Jiang Fan has just shared with you, our quick commerce is having a very significant effect in terms of enhancing user engagement as well as driving transactions in relevant categories. So that, of course, has a positive impact in CMR. So the main thing that we need to do in this next phase is to better integrate and achieve synergies across conventional e-commerce and quick commerce so as to more fully realize that impact.

    正如江帆剛才和大家分享的那樣,我們的快速商務在提升用戶參與度以及推動相關類別的交易方面產生了非常顯著的影響。當然,這對 CMR 有正面的影響。因此,在下一階段,我們需要做的主要事情是更好地整合傳統電子商務和快速商務,實現協同效應,從而更充分地發揮其影響力。

  • However, we are in an investment phase right now. So this is relevant to EBITA. I think likely, the September quarter we will see the quarter during which the scale of those investments are the highest. And as efficiency improves on -- improves and the scale of this business stabilizes we can expect to see, I think, by next quarter a significant sizing down in the scale of those investments. Of course, having said that, we will dynamically adjust the pace and size of our investments in line with market competition.

    然而,我們目前正處於投資階段。所以這與息稅前利潤(EBITA)有關。我認為,9 月的季度很可能是這些投資規模最大的季度。隨著效率的提高和業務規模的穩定,我認為,到下個季度,我們可以預期這些投資的規模將大幅縮減。當然,話雖如此,我們仍會根據市場競爭情況動態調整投資的速度和規模。

  • When it comes to new CMR and the e-commerce business, there will be an impact from the base effect in respect of the payment processing fee as well as the rollout of QCT. We started charging the payment process in September of last year.

    對於新的 CMR 和電子商務業務而言,支付處理費的基數效應以及 QCT 的推出都會產生影響。我們從去年九月開始收取支付費用。

  • And so starting from next quarter, we did expect to see a slowdown in growth due to that base effect but as we've consistently emphasized, our primary informal objective is to secure market share for the medium and long term.

    因此,從下個季度開始,我們預計由於基數效應,成長速度將會放緩,但正如我們一直強調的那樣,我們主要的非正式目標是確保中長期市場份額。

  • And during this process, we will continue to decisively invest in consumers and merchants, and we will resolutely move ahead with business model upgrading of our e-commerce platform. And during that process, you can therefore expect that there will be short-term fluctuations in CMR and in EBITDA.

    在此過程中,我們將繼續大力投資消費者和商家,並堅定不移地推動電子商務平台的商業模式升級。因此,在此過程中,您可以預期 CMR 和 EBITDA 會出現短期波動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Yao, JPMorgan.

    Alex Yao,摩根大通。

  • Alex Yao - Analyst

    Alex Yao - Analyst

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Thank you very much for the opportunity. So as Jiang Fan just said, we've now completed the first phase of these investments we're now in the second phase where we are enhancing efficiency.

    非常感謝您給我這次機會。正如江帆剛才所說,我們現在已經完成了這些投資的第一階段,現在我們進入了第二階段,也就是提高效率。

  • So my question is, as the efficiency is optimized and we obtain cost savings what are we going to do with those cost savings? How will the benefit of those cost savings be allocated or distributed across the value chain among the different key stakeholders, say -- assume, for example, that we're going to continue to maintain the same level of intensity with respect to subsidies to consumers this ongoing incremental improvement in the financial performance of the business then what will that mean in terms of subsidies for merchants?

    所以我的問題是,當效率優化並獲得成本節約後,我們將如何利用這些節約下來的成本?這些成本節約帶來的效益將如何在整個價值鏈中分配給不同的關鍵利害關係人?例如,假設我們將繼續維持對消費者補貼的力度,企業財務表現的持續改善,那麼這對商家的補貼又意味著什麼?

  • The cost savings will need to be allocated or distributed somehow across the key stakeholders, the consumer merchant and platform. And then so if we don't decrease those subsidies to consumers and we continue to follow the same path that we're on now and rely on optimization of user mix as well as try to increase in order share and driving higher basket sizes, what does that mean for you? And how much scope is there going forward for UE growth?

    節省下來的成本需要以某種方式分配給主要利害關係人,即消費者、商家和平台。那麼,如果我們不減少對消費者的補貼,繼續走我們現在走的這條路,依靠優化用戶組合,努力提高訂單份額和增加客單價,這對你來說意味著什麼?未來UE的成長空間還有多大?

  • Fan Jiang - Chief Executive Officer, Alibaba E-commerce Business Group

    Fan Jiang - Chief Executive Officer, Alibaba E-commerce Business Group

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Yes. This is Jiang Fan. Let me take this question. And it's actually related to, in part, some of the things that I was sharing with you a bit earlier. So what we've been doing in this period of time is enhancing user experience and at the same time, increasing the average order value.

    是的。這是薑帆。讓我來回答這個問題。實際上,這與我之前跟你分享的一些事情有部分關係。因此,我們在這段時間所做的,就是提升使用者體驗,同時提高平均訂單價值。

  • So that means that the revenues attributable to each order will increase, because our revenues are proportionate to average order value. I also spoke earlier about how we've optimized logistics, fulfillment, logistics efficiency, and we'll continue to drive improvement with scale.

    這意味著每筆訂單帶來的收入將會增加,因為我們的收入與平均訂單價值成正比。我之前也談到了我們如何優化物流、訂單履行和物流效率,我們將繼續透過規模化來推動改進。

  • So I think going forward, there is still considerable scope there on the one hand in respect of consumers because over the past few months, it's really been primarily new consumers in this business. And what we're doing is converting those users into users with a higher level of stickiness across the platform as a whole. And through that process, we'll continue to increase average order size, average order value and to modify the ways in which we provide subsidies.

    所以我認為,展望未來,一方面,就消費者而言,仍然存在相當大的發展空間,因為在過去的幾個月裡,這個行業主要吸引的是新消費者。我們正在做的,是將這些用戶轉化為在整個平台上具有更高黏性的用戶。透過這個過程,我們將繼續提高平均訂單規模、平均訂單價值,並改變我們提供補貼的方式。

  • Also, if you look at traffic on the Taobao app over the past few months, including on the quick commerce channel, which has rapidly increased to the point where has over 100 million daily users on the channel. I think it speaks to the fact that there's considerable potential for monetization -- further monetization and I think that, that's an opportunity also to improve in the future.

    此外,如果你看一下淘寶應用程式過去幾個月的流量,包括快商通路的流量,就會發現快商通路的流量成長迅速,每日活躍用戶已超過 1 億。我認為這表明該產品具有相當大的盈利潛力——進一步盈利的潛力,我認為這也是未來改進的機會。

  • Having said that, again, the market is a highly competitive market. So we will be looking at those opportunities but adjusting our approach dynamically in line with market dynamics.

    話雖如此,市場仍然是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。因此,我們將關注這些機會,並根據市場動態動態調整我們的方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Keung, Goldman Sachs.

    Ronald Keung,高盛集團。

  • Ronald Keung - Analyst

    Ronald Keung - Analyst

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • So I'd like to ask about CapEx over the next three years. And I'm wondering what your thinking is as you sit here today regarding the $380 billion figure, I think you previously mentioned, in particular, because over the past four quarters, I believe, $120 billion has already been spent. So how should we be thinking about CapEx going forward and the incremental revenue being driven by that CapEx and how to evaluate the correlation between CapEx and the expected incremental revenue?

    所以我想問一下未來三年的資本支出狀況。我想知道您今天坐在這裡,對於您之前提到的 3800 億美元這個數字,您有什麼想法,因為我相信,在過去的四個季度裡,已經花費了 1200 億美元。那麼,我們應該如何看待未來的資本支出以及資本支出所帶來的增量收入,以及如何評估資本支出與預期增量收入之間的相關性?

  • Unidentified Company Representative 1

    Unidentified Company Representative 1

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Thank you for the question. So the $380 billion CapEx figure that we had previously mentioned was a planned figure for a three-year period. But based on what we're seeing now, and as I just mentioned, the pace at which we can add new servers is insufficient to keep up with the growth in customer orders. So looking at the CapEx situation from where we're at today and of course, there are also supply chain issues to consider as well the pace in which we can build out IDCs and launch new service is also part of that consideration.

    謝謝你的提問。因此,我們先前提到的 3,800 億美元資本支出數字是三年計畫期間的數字。但根據我們目前看到的情況,正如我剛才提到的,我們增加新伺服器的速度不足以跟上客戶訂單的成長。因此,從我們目前的資本支出情況來看,當然,還有供應鏈問題需要考慮,我們建造IDC和推出新服務的速度也是需要考慮的因素。

  • But essentially, we're working as fast as we can to be able to satisfy all of that customer demand. In that context, if we're not able to satisfy all of our customer demand especially well with the current pace of investment, then we wouldn't rule out further scaling up that CapEx.

    但從本質上講,我們正在盡最大努力加快速度,以滿足所有客戶的需求。在這種情況下,如果我們無法以目前的投資速度很好地滿足所有客戶的需求,那麼我們不排除進一步擴大資本支出規模。

  • But again, that is somewhat dependent on supply chain and the capability. But in overall terms, certainly, we will be investing in AI infrastructure aggressively in order to meet demand. So in big picture terms, I would say that the $380 billion figure we had mentioned previously, might be on the small side, certainly in terms of the customer demand that we're currently seeing.

    但同樣,這在一定程度上取決於供應鏈和產能。但總體而言,我們肯定會大力投資人工智慧基礎設施,以滿足需求。所以從宏觀角度來看,我認為我們之前提到的 3,800 億美元數字可能偏小,尤其是在我們目前看到的客戶需求方面。

  • Unidentified Company Representative 2

    Unidentified Company Representative 2

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Thank you. The second part of the question had to do with the incremental revenue being driven by these capital expenditures. And if there's some kind of ratio that we can calculate between x amount of CapEx investment and x amount of incremental revenue.

    謝謝。問題的第二部分與這些資本支出帶來的增量收入有關。如果我們可以計算出資本支出投資金額 x 和增量收入金額 x 之間的某種比率。

  • And I don't think it's really possible to make that kind of estimate at least for the time being because overall, the AI sector is still in the early phases of its development. And if you look at the different ways that our AI infrastructure is currently being used, that's in flux and spend in several different areas, for example, we have servers that are directly granted to customers for training. We have servers that are directly rented to customers for inference.

    而且我認為至少目前還不可能做出這樣的估計,因為整體而言,人工智慧領域仍處於發展的早期階段。如果你看看我們人工智慧基礎設施目前使用的不同方式,你會發現它處於不斷變化之中,並且在幾個不同的領域都有投入,例如,我們有伺服器直接提供給客戶用於訓練。我們有直接租給客戶用於推理的伺服器。

  • And we're also, of course, using service ourselves by for inference. as well as for internal applications within the Alibaba Group, like Amap, like Cainiao, like Qwen and core and transforming these allocations into member services or membership-based products for our users.

    當然,我們自己也在使用這項服務進行推理,以及用於阿里巴巴集團內部的應用,例如地圖應用、菜鳥應用、Qwen 和 Core,並將這些資源分配轉化為面向用戶的會員服務或會員制產品。

  • So overall, our AI products and AI infrastructure being used in all these different ways, different kinds of allocations, resulting in different revenues and different gross margin levels. So I think in terms of that kind of ratio, you were asking about whatever it is, it certainly wouldn't be stable at this point. I think in the long term, though, what we care about more is that our infrastructure is serving high-quality tokens and providing good cost effectiveness.

    總的來說,我們的 AI 產品和 AI 基礎設施以各種不同的方式使用,不同的分配方式,從而產生了不同的收入和不同的毛利率水平。所以我覺得就你問的那種比例而言,不管是什麼,目前一定不會穩定。但我認為從長遠來看,我們更關心的是我們的基礎設施能夠提供高品質的代幣並具有良好的成本效益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ellie Jiang, Macquarie.

    Ellie Jiang,麥格理集團。

  • Ellie Jiang - Analyst

    Ellie Jiang - Analyst

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • This is more of a follow-up question. The company is a full-stack AI service provider and obviously is currently in an important investment cycle. And we can see that the investments you're making cover a number of different segments in the value chain. So considering the instability in the supply chains that are ongoing at present. I'm wondering how you consider the allocation of our resources because you have the model as a service, the mass layer, we also continue to build up underlying capabilities, fundamental capabilities.

    這更像是後續問題。該公司是一家全端人工智慧服務提供商,顯然目前正處於重要的投資週期中。我們可以看到,你們的投資涵蓋了價值鏈中的多個不同環節。考慮到目前供應鏈的不穩定性。我想知道您是如何考慮資源分配的,因為您擁有模型即服務、大眾層,我們也在不斷建立底層能力、基礎能力。

  • And on the user-facing side, we have apps, including Q1 and AMP products like that, that we're iterating rapidly and scaling up to users. So I'm just wondering in the present macro environment, how should we think about -- how should we evaluate the return on invested capital, ROIC, in respect of AI and including both training and inferencing?

    在面向用戶的方面,我們有像 Q1 和 AMP 這樣的應用程序,我們正在快速迭代並擴大規模,以滿足用戶需求。所以我想知道,在當前的宏觀環境下,我們應該如何看待——我們應該如何評估人工智慧的投資報酬率(ROIC),包括訓練和推理?

  • Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Yongming Wu - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Let me take that question. Indeed, as a full stack AI service provider, we are currently in a very important investment cycle for AI and investing in our products as well as in our infrastructure. So there are several different places where we're investing and we do have some internal thinking about how we prioritize them, and I can share, I think, some of those considerations with you.

    讓我來回答這個問題。事實上,作為一家全端人工智慧服務供應商,我們目前正處於人工智慧領域一個非常重要的投資週期,我們正在投資我們的產品以及基礎設施。所以,我們在幾個不同的領域進行投資,我們內部也對如何確定投資優先順序進行了一些思考,我想我可以和你們分享其中的一些考慮因素。

  • First of all, I would say the most critical priorities. The first thing that we need to ensure is that we are able to continually train our own foundation models. Because in the AI space overall, the ability of our AI infrastructure to be able to acquire more customers or to be able to acquire more high-value use cases relies on our ability to continually iterate and upgrade our foundation models. We need to be doing that in order to be able to unlock new demand and to acquire new customers by unlocking risk cases.

    首先,我想說說最關鍵的優先事項。我們首先需要確保的是,我們能夠持續地訓練自己的基礎模型。因為在整個人工智慧領域,我們的人工智慧基礎設施能否獲得更多客戶或獲得更多高價值用例,取決於我們能否不斷迭代和升級我們的基礎模型。我們需要這樣做,才能釋放新的需求,並透過釋放風險來獲取新客戶。

  • After that, after unlocking new higher-value use cases, then the next thing is to look at the token consumption as well as token quality as well as the willingness of customers to pay for those tokens and that willingness is going to continue to strengthen gradually.

    之後,在解鎖新的更高價值的用例之後,下一步就是專注於代幣的消耗、代幣的品質以及客戶為這些代幣付費的意願,而這種意願將會繼續逐步增強。

  • So I would say that, that is one of the highest priorities when it comes to allocating those investments. Another priority is around inference, I'm thinking primarily of inference on -- as a service on Bailian. That is also a relatively high priority area for us. because we've created the Bailian platform in order to be able to serve customers all around the world. We want to ensure that those AI resources are available 24 hours a day and are being utilized 24/7 with high efficiency.

    所以我認為,在分配這些投資時,這是最重要的優先事項之一。另一個重點是推理,我主要考慮的是在 Bailian 上作為一項服務進行推理。這也是我們比較重視的領域,因為我們創建百聯平台的目的就是為了服務全球客戶。我們希望確保這些人工智慧資源全天 24 小時可用,並且 24/7 全天候高效利用。

  • So the key there is to ensure that one AI server can run at full capacity 24 hours around the clock and thereby to generate more tokens. So Bailian is a very critical resource pool for us, and it's a relatively high priority. Separately, of course, we have internal use cases for AI inferencing. And indeed, we also have external customers who are leveraging our inferencing services to their demand. So that's also part of the picture.

    因此,關鍵在於確保一台 AI 伺服器能夠 24 小時全天候滿載運行,從而產生更多代幣。因此,白蓮對我們來說是一個非常重要的資源池,也是我們相對較高的優先事項。當然,除此之外,我們內部也有人工智慧推理的應用案例。事實上,我們也有一些外部客戶正在利用我們的推理服務來滿足他們的需求。所以這也是問題的一部分。

  • But when it comes to these external customers, we also had some criteria for prioritizing different external customers. If an external customer is utilizing all of our services across cloud all of the cloud services spanning storage, spending big data and all of these other things, then, of course, not customer would be accorded to a higher level of priority. If you have a customer that's merely renting a GPU to move some very simple inferencing needs than the demands of those customers would accordingly be given a slightly lower level of priority.

    但對於這些外部客戶,我們也制定了一些標準來對不同的外部客戶進行優先排序。如果外部客戶使用了我們所有的雲端服務,包括儲存、大數據等所有雲端服務,那麼當然,沒有哪個客戶會獲得更高的優先順序。如果客戶只是租用 GPU 來滿足一些非常簡單的推理需求,那麼這些客戶的需求優先順序就會相應降低一些。

  • Moving on to the second question, which I thought was a really good one. I think there are two pieces to this issue. The first is the supply side. Second is -- first is the demand side. Second is the supply side. So if we look at the foundation models and this could be video generation models. They could be omni-model models going forward, the capabilities continue to increase and be enhanced. And we're not yet seeing any issues in terms of scaling one -- nobody's hit the wall yet, so to speak, in the industry. We continue to make a lot of progress on the very important breakthroughs in terms of the capabilities.

    接下來是第二個問題,我覺得這個問題問得非常好。我認為這個問題包含兩個面向。首先是供給面。其次是——首先是需求面。其次是供給面。所以如果我們看一下基礎模型,這可能是影片生成模型。未來它們可能會發展成為全能型模型,其功能將不斷增強和完善。而且我們目前還沒有看到在規模化方面出現任何問題——可以說,業內還沒有人遇到瓶頸。我們在能力方面繼續取得許多非常重要的突破性進展。

  • As the models become more powerful than the AI models will be able to do more things in the world of being able to serve larger variety of different use cases. And that will result in these models serving a lot of tasks, as the capabilities increase, they become stronger as these tasks become more deeply embedded across all industries, all aspects of business operations. So with those two drivers, we see in the next three-year period, highly definitive trend of demand for AI.

    隨著模型變得越來越強大,人工智慧模型將能夠在現實世界中做更多的事情,從而服務於更多樣化的不同用例。這將使這些模型能夠服務許多任務,隨著能力的提升,它們會變得更加強大,因為這些任務會更深入地嵌入所有行業、業務運營的各個方面。因此,在這兩個驅動因素的影響下,我們預期未來三年內,人工智慧的需求將呈現非常明確的趨勢。

  • And with all of this rapid growth in demand, we also need to be thinking about the supply side. I'm sure that you, as analysts have also been looking at the supply side. Starting in the second half of this year, I think we've seen worldwide. If you look at fabs, if you look at DRAM vendors, storage companies, CPU manufacturers across all of those different links in the value chain that go to making AI servers. There is a situation of undersupply, supply is unable to keep up with demand for all of these components globally.

    隨著需求的快速成長,我們也需要考慮供應方面的問題。我相信各位分析師也一直在關注供應方面的情況。從今年下半年開始,我認為我們已經看到了全球範圍內的情況。如果你看看晶圓廠,如果你看看DRAM供應商、儲存公司、CPU製造商,看看構成人工智慧伺服器價值鏈的所有不同環節。目前存在供應不足的情況,全球範圍內對所有這些零件的供應無法滿足需求。

  • And I think that you can expect that to continue throughout this scaling up an investment cycle driven by real demand for AI, we know that the supply side is going to be a relatively large bottleneck. So I think that it could be at least a period of two or three years for those different suppliers, those different venues to be able to ramp up their production capacity. So in this period of two to three years, we can expect to continue to see a rapid increase in demand and not to be driving the supply side.

    我認為,隨著人工智慧的實際需求不斷增長,投資週期也在加速擴大,這種情況預計會持續下去,我們知道供應方面將是一個相對較大的瓶頸。所以我認為,至少需要兩到三年的時間,讓不同的供應商、不同的場地可以提升他們的生產能力。因此,在接下來的兩到三年裡,我們可以預期需求將持續快速成長,而供應方面則不會成長。

  • So I think in the next three years to come, AI resources will continue to be undersupplied with demand out on the supply. And what we can see internally in the industry, and if we look at the hyperscalers in the US, all of the latest GPUs that are running at full capacity and not just them, the last generation GPUs, even GPUs from three to five years, so also several generations back. those GPUs are to this day still running at full capacity.

    所以我認為在未來三年內,人工智慧資源將繼續供不應求。我們從產業內部,特別是美國的超大規模資料中心營運商那裡可以看到,所有最新的GPU都在滿載運行,不僅是最新的GPU,還有上一代GPU,甚至是三到五年前的GPU,也就是好幾代以前的GPU,這些GPU至今仍然滿載運作。

  • So looking ahead to the next, say, three years, we don't really see much of an issue in terms of a so-called AI bubble.

    因此,展望未來三年,我們並不認為會出現所謂的「人工智慧泡沫」問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jialong Shi, Nomura.

    石家龍,野村。

  • Jialong Shi - Analyst

    Jialong Shi - Analyst

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • So in the last earnings call, management shared that Alibaba intends to grow its market share in the consumption market. in China. And we've seen that over the past few months, your investments in quick commerce have indeed resulted in an increase in market share.

    在最近一次財報電話會議上,管理階層表示阿里巴巴計劃擴大在中國消費市場的份額。我們已經看到,在過去的幾個月裡,你們對快速商務的投資確實帶來了市場份額的成長。

  • So I'd like to know apart from quick comments, apart from his e-commerce, what are the other subsectors in the consumption market that you see as good opportunities for investment where you will consider scaling up your investments?

    所以我想知道,除了簡短的評論之外,除了他的電子商務之外,您認為消費市場中還有哪些細分領域是良好的投資機會,您會考慮擴大投資規模?

  • Jiang Fan - Chief Executive Officer, Alibaba E-commerce Business Group

    Jiang Fan - Chief Executive Officer, Alibaba E-commerce Business Group

  • (interpreted)

    (翻譯)

  • Thank you. This is Jiang Fan. Let me take this question. Alibaba has been investing strategically in consumption market over many years, and we've entered a huge number of different categories and some verticals. So apart from quick commerce, which we've been investing in heavily, we've talked a lot about it. We also, of course, have freshable, we have offline, the offline O2O model as well as Fliggy as well as Amap and of course, local services. So that's our landscape or matrix of businesses that we've been investing in.

    謝謝。這是薑帆。讓我來回答這個問題。多年來,阿里巴巴一直在消費市場進行策略性投資,我們已經進入了大量不同的類別和一些垂直領域。所以除了我們大力投資的快速商業模式之外,我們還討論了很多其他方面。當然,我們還有 Freshable、離線服務、線下 O2O 模式、飛豬、大地圖,當然還有本地服務。這就是我們一直在投資的業務格局或矩陣。

  • And I think what we need to be doing now really is working to integrate, connect those businesses and to drive more synergies across those existing businesses. And in that way, we can achieve a further increase in our market share in that larger consumption market.

    我認為我們現在真正需要做的是努力整合、連結這些企業,並在現有企業之間推動更多的綜效。這樣一來,我們就可以在更大的消費市場中進一步提高市場佔有率。

  • Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

    Lydia Lu - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again on our December quarter earnings call.

    謝謝。謝謝各位今天蒞臨。我們期待在12月季度財報電話會議上再次與您交流。

  • Editor

    Editor

  • Portions of this transcript that are marked (interpreted) were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.

    本記錄中標有(已翻譯)的部分是由現場通話中的翻譯人員翻譯的。本次活動的翻譯人員由活動贊助公司提供。