高盛 (GS) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to The Goldman Sachs first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎大家參加高盛 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。

On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer. The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of The Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. This audiocast is copyrighted material of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced, or rebroadcast without consent.

我將代表高盛在電話會議上開始以下免責聲明。收益報告可在高盛網站的投資者關係頁面上找到，其中包含前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的資訊。此音訊廣播為高盛集團的版權資料，未經同意不得複製、影印或轉播。

This call is being recorded today, April 14, 2025.

本次通話於今天（2025 年 4 月 14 日）錄製。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman.

現在我將電話轉給董事長兼執行長戴維·所羅門 (David Solomon)；和財務長丹尼斯·科爾曼 (Denis Coleman)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

所羅門先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us.

非常感謝，接線生。大家早安。感謝大家的參與。

In the first quarter, we generated net revenues of $15.1 billion, earnings per share of $14.12, and ROE of 16.9%, and an ROTE of 18%. In a highly dynamic environment, we produced very strong results. This quarter was characterized by rapidly shifting sentiment, with the market backdrop ending in a very different place than where it started.

第一季度，我們的淨收入為 151 億美元，每股收益為 14.12 美元，ROE 為 16.9%，ROTE 為 18%。在高度動態的環境中，我們取得了非常強勁的業績。本季的特點是市場情緒迅速轉變，市場背景與開始時大不相同。

Still, our leading global franchise underpinned by our best-in-class talent, risk management, and execution capabilities delivered for our clients. Our performance underscores the importance of having a scaled franchise with presence around the world.

儘管如此，我們領先的全球特許經營權仍然以我們為客戶提供的一流人才、風險管理和執行能力為基礎。我們的表現凸顯了擁有遍佈全球的規模化特許經營權的重要性。

Being a leading global financial institution requires a deep expertise and diversification that can only come from long-term consistent investment in our client franchise, a deep risk management culture, and our strong people.

作為一家領先的全球金融機構，需要深厚的專業知識和多元化，而這只能來自於對我們的客戶特許經營權、深厚的風險管理文化和強大的員工的長期持續投資。

This is what brings clients to Goldman Sachs. In Global Banking & Markets, ongoing policy uncertainty and market volatility drove many clients to reposition their portfolios, driving higher activity in our FICC and equities businesses.

這正是高盛吸引顧客的原因。在全球銀行和市場領域，持續的政策不確定性和市場波動促使許多客戶重新配置其投資組合，從而推動我們的固定收益、大宗商品和股票業務活動增加。

I'm proud that we were able to support the intermediation and financing needs of our clients, all while keeping a keen eye on risk management. In these businesses, we have demonstrated our ability to deliver strong results in a broad array of market environments.

我很自豪我們能夠支援客戶的中介和融資需求，同時密切注意風險管理。在這些業務中，我們已經證明了我們在廣泛的市場環境中取得強勁業績的能力。

We've consistently grown financing, and while intermediation activity across various asset classes can ebb and flow in any given quarter, our overall results have been remarkably resilient over time. In investment banking, the volatile backdrop led to more muted activity relative to the levels we had expected coming into the year.

我們的融資一直在不斷成長，雖然各個資產類別的中介活動在任何一個季度都會有起伏，但我們的整體業績一直具有顯著的彈性。在投資銀行領域，動盪的背景導致今年的業務活動相對於我們預期的水平而言更加低迷。

But it is especially in environments like this that clients come to Goldman Sachs for help with their most important strategic decisions. We are the number one M&A adviser globally and have been for the last 20 years. We built our leadership position through decades of investment and our incredible teams in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.

但正是在這樣的環境下，客戶才會向高盛尋求協助，做出最重要的策略決策。我們是全球排名第一的併購顧問，並且已經保持了 20 年的領先地位。我們透過數十年的投資以及在美洲、歐洲和亞洲的優秀團隊建立了領導地位。

This allows us to help clients execute marquee transactions like Google's $32 billion acquisition of Wiz, the largest transaction in Israeli history, or the $24 billion take-private of Walgreens Boots Alliance, a firm with presence across the US, Europe, and Latin America.

這使我們能夠幫助客戶執行重大交易，例如Google以 320 億美元收購 Wiz（這是以色列歷史上最大的交易），或以 240 億美元私有化沃爾格林博姿聯盟（一家業務遍及美國、歐洲和拉丁美洲的公司）。

As we stand today, our client dialogues remain elevated, and our backlog is up for the fourth consecutive quarter. That being said, our ability to execute on these transactions will of course be dependent on market conditions.

就目前情況而言，我們的客戶對話仍然保持在高水平，我們的積壓訂單連續第四個季度增加。話雖如此，我們執行這些交易的能力當然取決於市場條件。

In Asset & Wealth Management, our clients continue to come to us for the quality of our advice and track record of investing acumen across asset classes, which is especially valued in turbulent markets. This quarter, our assets under supervision rose to a record of $3.2 trillion. This represents a 29th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows, and we're making strong progress across our key growth opportunities in this business alternatives, wealth management, and solutions.

在資產和財富管理方面，我們的客戶不斷選擇我們，因為我們提供高品質的諮詢服務，以及我們在跨資產類別投資方面的敏銳度，這在動盪的市場中尤其受到重視。本季度，我們監管的資產增至創紀錄的3.2兆美元。這是連續第 29 個季度出現長期收費淨流入，我們在業務替代、財富管理和解決方案等關鍵成長機會方面取得了強勁進展。

In alternatives, our long track record of performance continues to support our fundraising effort. We raised another $19 billion in the quarter, bringing our total fundraising of alternatives since 2019 to $342 billion. We also recently launched multiple flagship funds across strategies including infrastructure, growth equity, and private credit.

在替代方案中，我們長期的業績記錄繼續支持我們的籌款工作。本季我們又籌集了 190 億美元，使我們自 2019 年以來的另類投資融資總額達到 3,420 億美元。我們最近也推出了涵蓋基礎設施、成長股和私人信貸等策略的多個旗艦基金。

In wealth management, we continue to scale our premier ultra high net worth franchise. Total wealth management revenue grew 11% year over year to $2.2 billion while client assets reached another record of $1.6 trillion. Supporting this platform, we have over 1,000 private wealth advisors with an average tenure of more than 15 years.

在財富管理方面，我們繼續擴大我們的首要超高淨值特許經營權。財富管理總收入年增 11% 至 22 億美元，客戶資產再創歷史新高，達到 1.6 兆美元。支持這個平台的是超過1000名私人財富顧問，平均任期超過15年。

Leveraging the firm's investment platform, global network, and banking capabilities, they work tirelessly to deliver unique and tailored solutions to our ultra high net worth clients. We recently received a number of accolades from Euromoney, including being named the world's best private bank for 2025.

他們利用公司的投資平台、全球網路和銀行業務能力，不懈地為我們的超高淨值客戶提供獨特的客製化解決方案。我們最近獲得了《歐洲貨幣》雜誌的多項榮譽，包括被評為 2025 年全球最佳私人銀行。

These awards are a recognition of our excellence and long-standing commitment to serving the needs of our ultra high net worth client base. Across our businesses, our clear priority is to serve clients with excellence.

這些獎項是對我們卓越表現和長期致力於滿足超高淨值客戶群需求的認可。在我們的業務中，我們的首要任務是為客戶提供卓越的服務。

To that end, we are always seeking ways to enhance the client experience while improving efficiency. As highlighted in our strategic update this January, we are investing to strengthen our franchise and operate more effectively at scale.

為此，我們一直在尋求提高效率的同時增強客戶體驗的方法。正如我們在今年 1 月的策略更新中所強調的那樣，我們正在進行投資以加強我們的特許經營權並更有效地進行規模運營。

This includes taking steps to unlock efficiencies in technology and automation. As an example, we are leveraging AI solutions to scale and transform our engineering capabilities as well as to simplify and modernize our technology stack.

這包括採取措施提高技術和自動化效率。例如，我們正在利用人工智慧解決方案來擴展和轉變我們的工程能力，以及簡化和現代化我們的技術堆疊。

Today, many of our people have access to generative AI powered tools to help them serve clients more efficiently and increase productivity. These include a developer copilot coding assistant and a natural language GS AI assistant.

今天，我們的許多員工都可以使用生成式人工智慧工具來幫助他們更有效率地為客戶服務並提高生產力。其中包括開發人員副駕駛編碼助理和自然語言 GS AI 助理。

We continue to believe an acceleration in AI adoption will allow for further efficiencies for our own business and for companies large and small. As it is utilized more broadly, productivity gains for the economy will be significant.

我們始終相信，加速人工智慧的應用將進一步提高我們自己的企業以及大大小小的公司的效率。隨著其得到更廣泛的應用，經濟生產力的提升將十分顯著。

Turning to the macroeconomic backdrop more broadly. As I said at the outset, we are entering the second quarter with a markedly different operating environment than earlier this year. Our economists' expectation for growth in the US has fallen meaningfully from over 2% to 0.5%.

更廣泛地轉向宏觀經濟背景。正如我在一開始所說的，進入第二季度，我們的經營環境與今年早些時候有明顯不同。我們的經濟學家對美國經濟成長的預期已從2%以上大幅下降至0.5%。

The prospect of a recession has increased with growing indications that economic activity is slowing down around the world. Our clients, including corporate CEOs and institutional investors, are concerned by the significant near term and longer term uncertainty that has constrained their ability to make important decisions.

隨著越來越多的跡象顯示全球經濟活動正在放緩，經濟衰退的可能性也隨之增加。我們的客戶，包括企業執行長和機構投資者，都擔心短期和長期的巨大不確定性會限制他們做出重要決策的能力。

This uncertainty around the path forward and fears over the potentially escalating effects of a trade war have created material risks to the US and global economy. We are encouraged by the administration's recent actions to pursue a more gradual policy process that allows for considered negotiations with many countries, but how policies will evolve is still unknown.

對未來道路的不確定性以及對貿易戰可能升級的影響的擔憂給美國和全球經濟帶來了重大風險。我們對政府最近採取的行動感到鼓舞，這些行動旨在推行更為漸進的政策進程，以便與許多國家進行深思熟慮的談判，但政策將如何演變仍不得而知。

We are hopeful that feedback from companies, large and small, institutional investors, and ultimately consumers will support an approach that will lead to greater economic certainty and long-term growth. In the meantime, markets will likely continue to be volatile until we have further clarity.

我們希望，來自大大小小的公司、機構投資者以及最終消費者的回饋將支持這種能夠帶來更大經濟確定性和長期成長的方法。同時，在我們獲得進一步明朗資訊之前，市場可能仍將持續波動。

The administration's focus on trade barriers and strengthening the US competitive position is commendable. At the same time, it is important to recognize that few countries have benefited more from the post-World War II economic and financial order than the US.

政府對貿易壁壘和加強美國競爭地位的關注值得稱讚。同時，必須認識到，很少有國家比美國從二戰後的經濟和金融秩序中獲益更多。

This doesn't mean meaningful reform in certain areas is not warranted. Today, the US is the largest, most dynamic and resilient economy, with the dollar as the reserve currency. We have the broadest and deepest capital markets, which help fuel an unparalleled culture of innovation in sectors like technology and healthcare.

這並不意味著某些領域不需要進行有意義的改革。如今，美國是全球最大、最具活力和韌性的經濟體，美元是儲備貨幣。我們擁有最廣泛、最深入的資本市場，有助於推動科技和醫療保健等領域無與倫比的創新文化。

These strengths among other manufacturing has an important driver of the 21st century economy. As a country, it is vital that we continue to leverage our considerable strengths as the global trading system for goods and services adjusts and evolves.

這些優勢對於其他製造業而言是21世紀經濟的重要驅動力。作為一個國家，在全球商品和服務貿易體系調整和發展的過程中，我們必須繼續利用我們強大的優勢。

On capital and regulation more broadly, we appreciate the administration's strong focus on appropriately calibrating regulation for the financial services industry. Following the recent nomination of Michelle Bowman as Vice Chairman of Supervision at the Federal Reserve, we will continue to actively engage on these matters and hope to see material progress across capital, leverage, liquidity, and supervision.

就資本和監管而言，我們讚賞政府高度重視適當調整金融服務業的監管。繼米歇爾·鮑曼最近被提名為聯準會監管副主席後，我們將繼續積極參與這些事務，並希望看到資本、槓桿、流動性和監管方面取得實質進展。

As this quarter has shown, it's impossible to predict market outcomes, but it has also demonstrated once again that in times of great uncertainty, clients turn to Goldman Sachs for execution and insight, and our leading franchises have never been better positioned to support our clients.

正如本季所顯示的那樣，預測市場結果是不可能的，但它也再次證明，在充滿不確定性的時期，客戶會向高盛尋求執行和洞察力，而我們領先的特許經營權從未像現在這樣能夠更好地支持我們的客戶。

I will now turn it over to Denis to cover the financial results for the quarter.

現在我將把時間交給丹尼斯來介紹本季的財務表現。

Thank you, David. Good morning.

謝謝你，大衛。早安.

Let's start with our results on page 1 of the presentation. In the first quarter, we generated net revenues of $15.1 billion, earnings per share of $14.12 and an ROE of 16.9%. We provide details on selected items in the bottom table, which in total reduced our EPS by $0.25 and ROE by 30 basis points.

讓我們從簡報第 1 頁的結果開始。第一季度，我們的淨收入為 151 億美元，每股收益為 14.12 美元，淨資產收益率為 16.9%。我們在下表中提供了選定項目的詳細信息，這些項目總計使我們的每股收益降低了 0.25 美元，淨資產收益率降低了 30 個基點。

Let's turn to performance by segment starting on page 3. Global Banking & Markets produced revenues of $10.7 billion in the first quarter and generated an ROE of over 20%.

讓我們從第 3 頁開始查看各部分的表現。全球銀行與市場業務第一季營收為 107 億美元，淨資產收益率超過 20%。

Turning to page 4. Advisory revenues of $792 million were down versus a strong performance a year ago. We remained number one in the league tables for M&A with a lead of over $70 billion in announced volumes versus our next closest peer.

翻到第 4 頁。諮詢收入為 7.92 億美元，與去年同期的強勁表現相比有所下降。我們在併購排行榜上仍然位居第一，已宣布的交易量比緊隨其後的同行高出 700 多億美元。

Equity underwriting revenues of $370 million were flat year over year, while debt underwriting revenues of $752 million rose 8%, driven by asset-backed and investment grade activity. We ranked first in equity and equity-related underwriting and ranked second in both high yield debt underwriting and leverage lending.

股票承銷收入為 3.7 億美元，與去年同期持平，而債務承銷收入為 7.52 億美元，成長 8%，這主要得益於資產支持和投資等級活動的推動。我們在股票和股票相關承銷方面排名第一，在高收益債務承銷和槓桿貸款方面排名第二。

Across investment banking, our backlog rose sequentially, driven by a notable increase in advisory. FICC net revenues were $4.4 billion in the quarter. Intermediation results were driven by higher client activity and currencies and mortgages, offset by lower performance in credit, rates and commodities versus a strong prior year.

在整個投資銀行業務中，由於諮詢業務的顯著增加，我們的積壓訂單環比增加。本季 FICC 淨收入為 44 億美元。中介績效的成長得益於客戶活動、貨幣和抵押貸款的增加，但信貸、利率和商品的表現與去年相比有所下降。

We produced record FICC financing revenues of $1 billion driven by solid performance in mortgages and structured lending. We remain confident in our ability to prudently grow this business over time, and always with an eye towards risk management.

在抵押貸款和結構性貸款穩健表現的推動下，我們實現了創紀錄的 10 億美元 FICC 融資收入。我們對自己隨著時間的推移審慎發展這項業務的能力充滿信心，並始終專注於風險管理。

Equities net revenues were a record $4.2 billion in the quarter. Equities intermediation revenues of $2.5 billion rose 28% year over year, primarily driven by strong performance in derivatives. Record equities financing revenues of $1.6 billion were higher year over year on better portfolio financing results and record average prime balances for the quarter.

本季股票淨收入達到創紀錄的 42 億美元。股票中介營收為 25 億美元，年增 28%，主要得益於衍生性商品的強勁表現。由於投資組合融資結果較好以及本季平均優惠餘額創歷史新高，股票融資收入達到創紀錄的 16 億美元，較去年同期成長。

Across FICC and equities, financing revenues of $2.7 billion rose 22% versus the prior year, reaching a new record for a fifth consecutive quarter.

FICC 和股票的融資收入達 27 億美元，較上年增長 22%，連續第五個季度創下新高。

Let's turn to page 5. Asset & Wealth Management revenues were $3.7 billion. Management and other fees were up 10% year over year to $2.7 billion on higher average assets under supervision and down slightly versus the fourth quarter driven by other fees, which include placement fees that can vary from quarter to quarter.

讓我們翻到第 5 頁。資產和財富管理收入為 37 億美元。由於監管的平均資產增加，管理費和其他費用年增 10%，達到 27 億美元；由於其他費用（包括每季可能有所不同的安置費），管理費和其他費用與第四季度相比略有下降。

Incentive fees were $129 million, up year over year despite the difficult monetization environment during the quarter. We expect to make progress on our target of $1 billion in annual incentive fees over the medium term, supported by an estimated $4.1 billion of unrecognized incentive fees as of year end.

儘管本季貨幣化環境艱難，但激勵費用仍年增 1.29 億美元。我們預計，中期內，我們將實現每年 10 億美元的激勵費用目標，這得益於截至年底估計 41 億美元的未確認激勵費用。

Private banking and lending revenues were $725 million, up 6% year over year on higher lending revenues. Sequentially, results were roughly flat, as NIM compression on deposits was offset by lending revenue growth.

私人銀行和貸款收入為 7.25 億美元，由於貸款收入增加，年增 6%。由於存款淨利差壓縮被貸款收入成長所抵消，因此業績環比基本持平。

In aggregate, our more durable revenues of $3.4 billion across management and other fees and private banking and lending grew 9% versus the prior year. We continue to expect high single digit annual growth in these lines over time.

總體而言，我們的管理費、其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款業務的更持久收入為 34 億美元，比去年增加了 9%。我們預計隨著時間的推移，這些產品的年增長率將持續保持在個位數的高點。

Revenues from equity investments and debt investments pulled $122 million largely driven by net interest income in our debt portfolio. Within equity investments, net gains in our private portfolio were more than offset by declines in our public portfolio amid the more challenging market backdrop during the quarter.

股權投資和債務投資的收入達到 1.22 億美元，主要得益於我們債務組合的淨利息收入。在股權投資方面，由於本季市場環境更加嚴峻，我們私人投資組合的淨收益被公共投資組合的下跌所抵消。

In the AWM segment, we generated 21% pre-tax margin and roughly 10% ROE. Excluding the impact of historical principal investments and approximately $4 billion of attributed equity, our pre-tax margin would have been 2 percentage points higher and ROE 2.6 percentage points higher.

在AWM部門，我們實現了21%的稅前利潤率和大約10%的ROE。不計入歷史本金投資和約 40 億美元歸屬股權的影響，我們的稅前利潤率將高出 2 個百分點，ROE 將高出 2.6 個百分點。

Now moving to page 6. Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $3.2 trillion. We had $29 billion of long-term net inflows across asset classes, representing our 29th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows.

現在轉到第 6 頁。本季末，監管總資產達到創紀錄的 3.2 兆美元。我們的各類資產的長期淨流入額為 290 億美元，這是我們連續第 29 個季度實現長期費用型淨流入。

Turning to page 7 on alternatives. Alternative assets under supervision totaled $341 billion at the end of the first quarter, driving $523 million in management and other fees. Gross third party alternatives fundraising was $19 billion in the quarter.

翻到第 7 頁，了解替代方案。截至第一季末，監管的另類資產總額為 3,410 億美元，帶來 5.23 億美元的管理費和其他費用。本季第三方另類融資總額為 190 億美元。

We continue to expect fundraising to be in line with recent years, though this outlook could be impacted by market conditions.

我們仍然預計融資額將與近年來持平，儘管這一前景可能會受到市場狀況的影響。

On page 9, firm-wide net interest income was $2.9 billion in the first quarter, up sequentially on a decline in funding costs. Our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $210 billion, up versus the fourth quarter, primarily reflecting an increase in other collateralized lending.

第 9 頁顯示，第一季全公司淨利息收入為 29 億美元，因融資成本下降而較上季成長。本季末我們的貸款總額為 2,100 億美元，較第四季度有所上升，主要反映了其他抵押貸款的增加。

Our provision for credit losses of $287 million primarily reflects net provisions related to the credit card portfolio, which were driven by net charge-offs, partially offset by releases following a seasonal paydown of card balances.

我們提列的 2.87 億美元信貸損失準備金主要反映了與信用卡組合相關的淨準備金，這些準備金是由淨沖銷推動的，但部分被季節性償還信用卡餘額後的釋放所抵消。

Turning to expenses on page 10. Total quarterly operating expenses were $9.1 billion, resulting in an efficiency ratio of 60.6%. Our compensation ratio in net of provisions was 33%. Non-compensation expenses were $4.3 billion.

翻到第 10 頁的費用。本季總營運費用為 91 億美元，效率比率為 60.6%。我們的扣除撥備後的賠償率為33%。非薪酬支出為43億美元。

David mentioned we continue to execute on our three year efficiency plan that we laid out in January, including making adjustments to our pyramid structure. Our effective tax rate for the quarter of 16.1% benefited from the impact of employee stock-based compensation.

大衛提到，我們將繼續執行我們在一月份制定的三年效率計劃，包括對我們的金字塔結構進行調整。我們本季的有效稅率為 16.1%，受惠於員工股票薪酬的影響。

Excluding this impact, our effective tax rate would have been roughly 9 points higher. For the full year, we expect a tax rate of approximately 21%.

如果不考慮這項影響，我們的有效稅率將高出約 9 個百分點。我們預計全年稅率約為 21%。

Now on to slide 11. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 14.8% at the end of the first quarter under the standardized approach, 110 basis points above our current capital requirements of 13.7%. In the quarter, we returned $5.3 billion to common shareholders, including record common stock repurchases of $4.4 billion and common stock dividends of $976 million.

現在翻到第 11 張投影片。根據標準化方法，我們第一季末的普通股一級資本適足率為 14.8%，比目前 13.7% 的資本要求高出 110 個基點。本季度，我們向普通股股東返還了 53 億美元，其中包括創紀錄的 44 億美元普通股回購和 9.76 億美元的普通股股息。

We will dynamically deploy capital to support our client franchise while also returning capital to shareholders. We remain committed to paying our shareholders a sustainable and growing dividend. Importantly, our Board recently authorized a multi-year share repurchase program of up to $40 billion, providing us increased capital management flexibility.

我們將動態部署資本來支持我們的客戶特許經營，同時向股東返還資本。我們仍然致力於向股東支付可持續且不斷增長的股息。重要的是，我們的董事會最近批准了一項高達 400 億美元的多年期股票回購計劃，這為我們提供了更大的資本管理彈性。

In conclusion, our performance once again reflects the diversification and strength of our leading client franchises, which enable us to deliver for our clients across a range of market backdrops. We're confident in our ability to continue to support our clients as they navigate this dynamic operating environment.

總而言之，我們的業績再次反映了我們主要客戶特許經營權的多樣化和實力，這使我們能夠在各種市場背景下為客戶提供服務。我們有信心有能力繼續支持我們的客戶應對這一動態的營運環境。

With that, we will now open up the line for questions.

現在，我們將開放提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

So obviously, really good trading results, but you mentioned also on the financing side, how good it was. I'm curious on the amount of deleveraging that we've seen in April. I'm assuming that's pretty good for intermediation, but how do we think about that in terms of the short term impacts on financing until we get a kind of a reload of leverage?

顯然，交易結果確實很好，但您也提到了融資方面的情況也很好。我很好奇四月去槓桿的程度。我認為這對中介來說相當不錯，但在我們獲得某種槓桿之前，我們如何看待這對融資的短期影響？

Good morning, Glenn. It's Denis. I'll take that.

早安，格倫。我是丹尼斯。我會接受的。

I think when you think about the components of our overall financing, the reality is we continue to see significant demand across the client base for both our FICC and equity financing. I think what you're referencing, given change in asset prices and market activity, so we did have a level of record average prime balances over the course of the first quarter, but it's reasonable to expect that some of those balances come down as asset prices reset.

我認為，當您考慮我們整體融資的組成部分時，現實情況是，我們繼續看到客戶群對我們的 FICC 和股權融資的巨大需求。我認為您所提到的是，考慮到資產價格和市場活動的變化，我們在第一季確實實現了創紀錄的平均優惠餘額，但隨著資產價格的重置，可以合理地預期其中一些餘額會下降。

And then you'll continue to support clients with their financing needs, but perhaps off of a lower base, given the adjustment in market prices.

然後，您將繼續支援客戶的融資需求，但考慮到市場價格的調整，可能會以較低的基數為基礎。

I mean is that like material in terms of the impact? And when you're at record PB balances and then you have the amount of deleveraging that we saw in early April, if it stays at this level, is that a major contributor to the growth in financing in the quarter?

我的意思是，從影響的角度來說，這是否像材料一樣？當 PB 餘額達到創紀錄水平，並且出現我們在 4 月初看到的去槓桿量時，如果保持在這個水平，這是否會成為本季融資成長的主要原因？

I would not characterize it as material or major. You have a number of things happening at the same time. You have deleveraging activity on behalf of clients, and you have changes in their overall level of balances, but you also have lots of different types of activity as clients reposition their portfolios and make sure that they adjust for their evolving views on the outlook.

我不會將其描述為物質的或主要的。有許多事情同時發生。您代表客戶進行去槓桿活動，並且您的整體餘額水平會發生變化，但隨著客戶重新配置其投資組合併確保根據不斷變化的前景觀點進行調整，您還會進行許多不同類型的活動。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I wanted to follow up on Glenn's question. I guess Denis, I think the view is the world in markets changed a little bit come April 2, and the risk from an investor standpoint is activity has fallen off the cliff. It's negative for financing. It could be negative for trading.

我想繼續回答格倫的問題。我想，丹尼斯，我認為從 4 月 2 日開始，市場情勢發生了一些變化，從投資者的角度來看，風險在於活動已經急劇下降。這對於融資來說是不利的。這可能對交易產生不利影響。

So I'm not sure if you have data in terms of the 10 days for April. And if you can give us -- if you can contextualize just how negative the last 10 days have been following a very strong 1Q and how we should think about just where clients are as we go back to debating good volatility versus bad volatility.

所以我不確定您是否有 4 月份 10 天的數據。如果您能為我們講講在第一季表現非常強勁之後，過去 10 天的情況有多麼糟糕，以及當我們重新討論好的波動性和壞的波動性時，我們應該如何考慮客戶的處境。

Yeah. I'm going to start. Denis can jump in, but I'd say a couple of things. First of all, obviously, no one can argue that April 2, a handful of things happened that shifted perspectives, but I would say there were things going on before April 2 that were shifting perspectives that also led to more activity.

是的。我要開始了。丹尼斯可以插話，但我想說幾件事。首先，顯然，沒有人會否認 4 月 2 日發生的一些事情改變了人們的觀點，但我想說，4 月 2 日之前發生的一些事情改變了人們的觀點，也導致了更多的活動。

So there's no question. And we've talked about this publicly a bunch, but we started to see growth slowing in late January and early February. We obviously saw significant moves in equity markets as people positioned for a different kind of trade policy during March.

所以毫無疑問。我們已經公開談論過這個問題，但我們在 1 月底和 2 月初開始看到成長放緩。由於人們在三月為不同類型的貿易政策做準備，我們顯然看到股市出現了重大波動。

And we saw significant moves in the March period which actually led to higher activity for us in a variety of ways. We're early in the quarter. But so far, the business is performing very well and clients are very active. And so I know there is a higher level of uncertainty, but at the same point, clients are active. People are shifting positions. And we still see significant activity levels.

我們在三月看到了重大舉措，這實際上以各種方式提高了我們的活動量。我們正處於本季初期。但到目前為止，業務表現良好，客戶非常活躍。所以我知道不確定性程度較高，但同時，客戶是活躍的。人們正在轉變立場。我們仍然看到顯著的活動水平。

I mean Denis, do you want to add to that at all?

我的意思是丹尼斯，你還想補充什麼嗎？

No, I think that captures the sentiment of where you're coming from, Ebrahim. We obviously have a diversified set of business activities, many of which work well together. Some of which mitigate each other. I think the point is given all the changes in the market and outlooks, our clients have been very active and all the investments that we've made in our franchise with our clients, all the resources we deployed to them and on their behalf, has put us in a position to be active with them.

不，我認為這抓住了你的出發點，易卜拉欣。我們顯然擁有多元化的業務活動，其中許多活動能夠很好地協同運作。其中一些可以相互緩解。我認為關鍵在於，鑑於市場和前景的所有變化，我們的客戶一直非常活躍，我們在與客戶的特許經營權中所做的所有投資，我們為他們部署的所有資源，都使我們能夠積極地與他們合作。

And if I could follow up. Denis, you mentioned executing on the three year efficiency plan and the pyramid structure. Just talk to us. I think there were some headlines last month around, I guess, regular sort of merit-based review of the headcount. Like what we're doing on the expense side as we think about the 60% efficiency target and maybe some resiliency to earning from -- on the cost side that we could expect?

如果我可以跟進的話。丹尼斯，你提到了執行三年效率計劃和金字塔結構。只需與我們交談即可。我認為上個月有一些頭條新聞，我想，是關於定期進行基於績效的員工人數審查。就像我們在考慮 60% 的效率目標時在費用方面所做的事情，以及在成本方面我們可以預期的一些盈利彈性？

Sure. Thanks, Ebrahim. I appreciate the question. And obviously, we went through on our call in January, this three year efficiency program, which is something we're very committed to and we're underway in terms of the execution they're under.

當然。謝謝，易卜拉欣。我很感謝你提出這個問題。顯然，我們在一月份的電話會議上討論了這個為期三年的效率計劃，我們非常致力於這個計劃，並且我們正在執行該計劃。

A lot of the focus of that is to free up capacity for us to make greater investments in technology, but that program had aspects as you referenced that relate to pyramid structure also had management of non-compensation spend. And we are looking at and managing all of those line items very carefully. To your question on pyramid at headcount in particular, our expectation is that we will undergo our regular annual performance management process, and I would expect that we'll record a severance charge in the second quarter of approximately $150 million in connection with a number of those actions.

該計劃的重點是釋放產能，以便我們在技術方面進行更多投資，但正如您所提到的，該計劃涉及金字塔結構，也涉及非薪酬支出的管理。我們正在非常仔細地審查和管理所有這些項目。對於您關於員工總數金字塔的問題，我們期望我們將進行常規年度績效管理流程，並且我預計我們將在第二季度記錄與這些行動相關的約 1.5 億美元的遣散費。

Christian Bolu, Autonomous Research.

克里斯蒂安·博魯（Christian Bolu），自主研究。

Maybe just staying on the topic of the markets businesses. I wanted to talk about the competitive landscape. You guys did very well in the quarter on an absolute basis, but it did lag peers in the quarter. And I appreciate it's just one quarter. You do have a track record of share gains, but just curious what you're seeing currently on the competitive landscape in end markets.

也許只是停留在市場業務的話題上。我想談談競爭格局。從絕對值來看，你們在本季的表現非常好，但確實落後於同業。我很感激這只是四分之一。您確實有市場佔有率成長的記錄，但我只是好奇目前看到的終端市場競爭格局是怎麼樣的。

Yeah. I think, Christian, we feel incredibly strongly about the way our business is positioned and the way it's performing. The comment you referenced, obviously, the way you look at these things, to go back and look at the first quarter last year, we had an extraordinary first quarter where we massively outperformed and so we've got a tougher comp.

是的。克里斯蒂安，我認為，我們對我們的業務定位和運作方式有著極其強烈的感受。您提到的評論顯然是您看待這些事情的方式，回顧去年第一季度，我們度過了一個非凡的第一季度，我們的表現遠遠超出預期，因此我們面臨著更嚴峻的競爭。

But the strength of our position, we feel good about. The client feedback we get is extraordinary, particularly at times like this. And I think we'll continue to execute very well along the continuous pattern that we've executed on as a leading provider in these activities, and it feels that way.

但我們對自己的地位之強感到滿意。我們收到的客戶回饋非常棒，尤其是在這種時候。我認為，我們將繼續按照我們作為這些活動的領先供應商所執行的連續模式很好地執行，感覺就是這樣。

On the buyback, impressive that you guys stepped it up fairly meaningfully in the quarter. What was the catalyst that drove the step up in the buyback? Was it the share price level, just excess capital? I'm just trying to understand if this level of buyback is sustainable going forward.

關於回購，令人印象深刻的是你們在本季加強了回購力道。推動此次回購措施的催化劑是什麼？是股價水平，還是只是資本過剩？我只是想知道這種水準的回購在未來是否可持續。

Sure. Obviously, we did note that the level of buybacks for us in the first quarter was a record. I think our philosophy with respect to capital deployment remains very consistent. First and foremost, we're making available the capital to support the client activities that come into the firm, obviously focused on a sustainably growing dividend.

當然。顯然，我們確實注意到，第一季我們的回購水準創下了紀錄。我認為我們在資本配置方面的理念仍然非常一致。首先，我們提供資金來支持公司的客戶活動，顯然重點是可持續成長的股息。

And then we calibrate our share buybacks relative to how we want to manage the firm's overall capital position in light of the environment. And as you've seen us over the last couple of years take a number of strategic measures to sort of reduce certain balance sheet exposures, ultimately, we have to get the capital out of the system.

然後，我們會根據環境來調整股票回購，以適應我們希望如何管理公司的整體資本狀況。正如您所看到的，我們在過去幾年中採取了一系列策略措施來減少某些資產負債表風險，最終，我們必須從系統中抽取資本。

That'll help our long term return profile. So we had a lot of earnings generation. And we took the opportunity to buy back some of our stock while ensuring that we still entered the second quarter with the level of capital where we're operating above the wide end of our target operating range to make sure we're in a position in this quarter to support client activity and continue first and foremost to support clients, but then also continue to return capital to shareholders.

這將有助於我們的長期回報狀況。因此我們創造了大量收益。我們藉此機會回購了部分股票，同時確保進入第二季度時我們的資本水平仍高於目標運營範圍的上限，以確保我們在本季度能夠支持客戶活動，並繼續首先支持客戶，同時也繼續向股東返還資本。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

So on the capital question, David, earlier in the prepared remarks, you were talking about the regulatory changes that are being anticipated. And the question I have for you is on the SLR ratio. I believe it's one of the ones you're tighter to.

關於資本問題，大衛，在早些時候準備好的發言中，您談到了預期的監管變化。我想問您的問題是關於 SLR 比率的。我相信這是你最重視的一個。

And it would be helpful to understand how you're thinking about if the changes come through as being discussed, take treasuries out of the denominator of the SLR, is that something that would be a noticeable benefit for you? Is that something that you think you could lean into relatively quickly?

並且，如果這些變化按照討論的方式實施，將國債從 SLR 的分母中剔除，了解您的想法將會很有幫助，這對您來說是一個明顯的好處嗎？您認為您可以相對快速地實現這一點嗎？

Or give us a sense as to how you plan on using these improvements in capital as they come through.

或者讓我們了解您計劃如何使用這些資本改進。

Yeah. So first of all, Betsy, I think you've got to look at this as a very holistic thing because there's a lot going on from a regulatory perspective and de-reg that I think will be a tailwind for the industry broadly. And obviously, it includes SLR reform to the degree it comes, it includes capital reform to the degree it comes, it includes supervisory reform to the degree it comes.

是的。首先，貝琪，我認為你必須把這看作一個非常全面的事情，因為從監管的角度來看有很多事情要做，而取消監管我認為將對整個行業產生推動作用。顯然，它包括一定程度的 SLR 改革、一定程度的資本改革和一定程度的監管改革。

And so it's a big package of things. We are CET1 constrained, not SLR constrained at the moment. But I do think for the system broadly, SLR relief would have a benefit to treasury markets. I think it's an important structural reform and certainly, you've heard messages from both the Fed and from treasury that this is a very, very high priority.

所以這是一個很大的包裹。目前，我們受到 CET1 限制，而不是 SLR 限制。但我確實認為，就整個體係而言，SLR 減免將有利於國債市場。我認為這是一項重要的結構性改革，當然，聯準會和財政部都表示，這是一項非常非常優先的事項。

And so we're certainly hopeful or optimistic given the way they've been messaging around that that there'll be activity on that. I think that's broadly good for the system. I think secondarily, across capital more broadly, whether it's Basel III, it's CCAR, and transparency and continuity and stability around that process, and then also G-SIB, we're certainly over the last decade that was supposed to be scaling based on market cap growth and economic growth, I think there's room for material tailwinds around capital, but most importantly, we hold -- all of the industry holds large buffers.

因此，考慮到他們一直在傳達的訊息，即將採取行動，我們當然充滿希望或樂觀。我認為這對系統整體來說是件好事。我認為其次，從更廣泛的資本角度來看，無論是巴塞爾協議 III 還是 CCAR，以及該流程的透明度、連續性和穩定性，還有 G-SIB，在過去十年中，我們當然應該根據市值增長和經濟增長進行擴展，我認為資本方面還有實質性順風的空間，但最重要的是，我們持有——所有行業都持有大量緩衝。

But as we don't have consistency and transparency around these things and any improvement at a minimum would return capital into the system if you had better transparency. So we're hopeful on that. And then on supervision, there are headwinds and costs and activities that we've had to deploy over the last few years to respond to what I'd say was an unusually high level of supervisory activity.

但由於我們在這些事情上缺乏一致性和透明度，如果有更好的透明度，任何改進至少都會將資本回饋給系統。所以我們對此充滿希望。在監管方面，過去幾年我們面臨阻力、成本和活動，以應對我認為異常高水準的監管活動。

We see already a different tone around some of that dialogue. And ultimately, that allows us to deploy resources in different places, many of which can support investment and growth as opposed to just regulatory response.

我們已經看到一些對話中出現了不同的基調。最終，這使我們能夠在不同的地方部署資源，其中許多資源可以支援投資和成長，而不僅僅是監管反應。

So I continue to believe even in this environment that there will be progress on this. We obviously don't know how this will unfold, but the messages I'm getting leave me optimistic that there will be progress, and that's very good for the industry as a whole.

因此，我仍然相信，即使在這種環境下，這方面也會取得進展。我們顯然不知道事情會如何發展，但我收到的訊息讓我樂觀地相信事情會取得進展，這對整個行業來說非常有利。

Denis, one for you on VAR. Value at risk this quarter was down broadly throughout the different categories Q-on-Q, which I thought was interesting given the heightened volatility that we had across a variety of different markets.

丹尼斯，關於 VAR，我想問你一個問題。本季度，不同類別的風險價值環比普遍下降，考慮到各個不同市場的波動性加劇，我認為這很有趣。

Can you remind us how volatility impacts VAR and how we should be thinking about VAR efficiency, which clearly went up dramatically? And just wanted to understand how to think about that on a go-forward basis.

您能否提醒我們波動性如何影響 VAR 以及我們應該如何考慮 VAR 效率（顯然 VAR 效率已大幅上升）？只是想了解如何在未來思考這個問題。

Good questions. Obviously, there's multiple components across the various asset classes and a diversification effect as well. Over the course of the first quarter for our average daily VAR, we had reduced exposures offset by elevated levels of volatility. So you obviously have both factors across asset classes that factor into the calculation, but to your question, obviously, increased or persistent levels of volatility could have upward pressure on our VAR measure.

好問題。顯然，各種資產類別都有多種組成部分，並且還具有多樣化效應。在第一季度，我們的平均每日 VAR 曝險有所減少，但波動性有所上升。因此，顯然，跨資產類別的兩個因素都會影響計算，但對於您的問題，顯然，波動性的增加或持續可能會對我們的 VAR 指標造成上行壓力。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

I mean I guess it's good. You can have record buybacks and the CET1 ratio doesn't change much. On the other hand, I guess you bought back stock quite a bit higher at the current price. And I know you're not market timing this or anything.

我的意思是我認為它很好。你可以進行創紀錄的回購，而 CET1 比率卻不會發生太大變化。另一方面，我猜你以當前價格回購了高得多的股票。我知道你沒有把握市場時機或做其他什麼。

So I'm guessing that reflects your confidence in the amount of excess cap you'll have with the $40 billion new share buyback. So I was just wondering if you could put a little more meat on the bones or the reasoning behind the $40 billion buyback.

所以我猜這反映了您對 400 億美元新股回購所獲得的超額上限數量的信心。所以我只是想知道您是否可以更詳細地解釋一下 400 億美元回購背後的原因。

And specifically, as this is a Reg FD calls, you can give material information. How much capital do you think could be freed up once you dispose of your private investments? You've chopped a lot of wood there. I think that's $8.8 billion. And after you -- if and when you dispose of your credit cards.

具體來說，由於這是 Reg FD 呼叫，您可以提供重要資訊。您認為一旦處分私人投資，可以釋放多少資本？你在那裡砍了很多木頭。我認為是 88 億美元。在您處理掉您的信用卡之後。

Okay. I'll start. Denis can jump in. I mean I hate Mike -- I appreciate the question. I hate to go back to Denis's message, but I think -- and you and I have spoken about this over the years, our number one priority is to deploy capital in the business where we can get marginal returns.

好的。我先開始。丹尼斯可以加入。我的意思是我討厭麥克——我很感謝這個問題。我不想重複丹尼斯的話，但我認為——這些年來你我都談論過這個問題，我們的首要任務是將資本部署到能夠獲得邊際回報的業務中。

We've done that consistently over the last five years. We've grown our business. We've deployed capital. But we've also been very clear that if we don't see places to deploy that capital and we have excess capital, we're going to consistently return it including sustained growth of the dividend where we've made a lot of meaningful progress.

過去五年來我們一直這樣做。我們的業務已經擴大。我們已經部署了資本。但我們也非常清楚，如果我們沒有看到部署這些資本的地方，並且我們有過剩的資本，我們將持續返還，包括持續成長股息，我們已經取得了許多有意義的進展。

We've grown the earnings of the firm materially and that's generating a lot of capital. And as Denis highlighted earlier, if we don't have a place to go in the business immediately, we have to return it. We can't market time and so we'll return it consistently.

我們大幅提高了公司的利潤並產生了大量資本。正如丹尼斯之前強調的那樣，如果我們現在沒有地方可以開展業務，我們就必須將其退回。我們無法行銷時間，因此我們將始終如一地回報。

We are confident that we're going to continue to have a big, diverse, strong earning business. We are confident that we will have capital available to deploy when there are opportunities. But if we don't, we will continue to actively return it to shareholders.

我們有信心，我們將繼續擁有龐大、多元化、獲利能力強的業務。我們相信，當機會出現時，我們將有足夠的資本可供部署。但如果沒有，我們也會繼續積極地回報股東。

There'll be some quarters where the stock price is higher, some quarters where the stock price is lower. But we're going to stick to that capital return philosophy. And I think it serves us very, very well. And I think we've proven over a long period of time, certainly over the 26 years that we've been public that we are very good stewards of capital. If we can't deploy it in the business for incremental returns, we're going to return it and get it back.

有些季度股價較高，有些季度股價較低。但我們將堅持資本回報理念。我認為它對我們非常非常有幫助。我認為我們已經在很長一段時間內證明了這一點，尤其是在我們上市的 26 年裡，我們是非常優秀的資本管理者。如果我們無法將其部署到業務中以獲得增量回報，我們就會將其退回並收回。

Was Denis going to add to that?

丹尼斯還會補充這一點嗎？

You don't have to if you don't have anything to add but you can. Do you have a follow up question, Mike?

如果您沒有什麼可添加的，則不必這樣做，但您可以這樣做。麥克，你還有其他問題嗎？

Well, it's just a specific amount of capital that could be freed up if and when you dispose of your private investments and your credit cards. It seems like that could be a pretty big number.

嗯，這只是當您處置私人投資和信用卡時可以釋放的特定金額的資本。這似乎是一個相當大的數字。

Yeah. Sorry, Mike. I didn't get to that. Yeah. I didn't get to that. Denis could certainly make comment on that.

是的。對不起，麥克。我還沒明白這一點。是的。我還沒明白這一點。丹尼斯當然可以對此發表評論。

Sure. So if you look at the HPI portfolio, we have approximately $4 billion of attributed equity, and a tad underneath that, and a reasonably similar amount across card portfolio. That gives you some context for the aggregate magnitude.

當然。因此，如果你看一下 HPI 投資組合，我們擁有大約 40 億美元的歸屬股權，略低於該數額，並且整個信用卡投資組合的金額相當相似。這為您提供了一些有關總量的背景資訊。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

I had a two-parter on alternatives, David. I was hoping you could speak to bigger picture, just the outlook for sponsor activity across the complex given some of the headwinds to realization activity as well as the heightened macro uncertainty you cited.

我對替代方案有兩個部分看法，大衛。我希望您能從更大角度談談整個綜合體贊助商活動的前景，因為實現活動面臨一些阻力，而且您也提到了宏觀不確定性加劇。

And then just drilling down to the third party alts disclosure. What contributed to that fee rate contraction on the credit side just given the step down was meaningful? And I know that's a high priority growth area for you and the management team.

然後深入研究第三方替代產品的揭露。既然降息幅度巨大，那麼是什麼原因導致信貸費用率下降呢？我知道這對您和管理團隊來說是一個高度優先的成長領域。

Well, first off, I'll comment on the macro, Steven. The size of the sponsored community, the amount of capital that's deployed, the assets that they hold and they control, it's quite significant. We've been talking about this for the last few quarters.

好吧，首先，我要對宏觀進行評論，史蒂文。贊助社區的規模、部署的資本金額、他們持有和控制的資產都非常重要。過去幾個季度我們一直在談論這個問題。

There's no question. There's been a pickup in activity and monetization because there's enormous pressure from the LP community to increase DPI and start to bring this capital back. I think the macro environment will further put more pressure.

毫無疑問。由於 LP 社群要求提高 DPI 並開始收回資本，因此活動和貨幣化有所回升。我認為宏觀環境將進一步施加更大壓力。

That'll be balanced by the fact that in the macro environment, some of the evaluation, expectations and realizations have to come down. I can't time it on a quarter to quarter basis, but the way I describe it, this is an enormous backlog that will come through the pipe at some point in time.

在宏觀環境下，部分評估、預期和實現必須下降，這一事實將會得到平衡。我無法按季度來計算時間，但按照我的描述，這是一個巨大的積壓訂單，它將在某個時間點通過管道到達客戶手中。

And there's no firm better positioned to capitalize on that than Goldman Sachs. How that unfolds in the coming quarters will be activity, but I think more certainty with respect to the policy landscape will be needed to really accelerate that.

沒有哪家公司比高盛更適合利用這一點。未來幾季將會如何發展，但我認為，需要對政策格局有更多確定性才能真正加速這一進程。

And Steven, as you talk about, fee rates coming through on the alt side, a number of different ways of feeding into our alts business. And they bring with them different levels of fees. So it takes two ends of the spectrum as we've had some success growing our OCIO activities. A lot of those portfolios will include some component of alts and the fees in connection with that are a lot lower.

史蒂文，正如您所說，從替代幣方面來看，費率有多種不同的方式可以支持我們的替代幣業務。而且它們收取不同等級的費用。因此，我們需要從兩個方面入手，因為我們在發展 OCIO 活動方面已經取得了一些成功。許多投資組合都會包含一些替代成分，而與此相關的費用則低得多。

We obviously have sort of our own flagship funds that we launched. We gave some color on the types of asset classes that we're expecting to execute on over the near term. That brings much higher level of fees. So overall, you see a 61 basis point disclosure between a couple basis points of recent periods, but with the flagship launches, I'd expect that would improve over time.

我們顯然已經推出了自己的旗艦基金。我們對短期內預計執行的資產類別類型做了一些說明。這會帶來更高水準的費用。因此總體而言，您會看到最近幾個時期的幾個基點之間披露了 61 個基點，但隨著旗艦產品的推出，我預計這種情況會隨著時間的推移而改善。

And just for a quick follow up, I was hoping to get some color on how you're thinking about potential risks to the deal backlog. Certainly encouraging to see sequential increase in the fee backlog. But as we think about some of the risks, whether it's international and cross-border or specific sectors that are particularly challenged, how you're framing or potentially handicapping the risk of some of these deals coming out of the backlog?

為了快速跟進，我希望了解您如何看待交易積壓的潛在風險。看到費用積壓連續增加確實令人鼓舞。但是，當我們考慮一些風險時，無論是國際和跨境風險，還是面臨特別挑戰的特定領域的風險，您如何建構或潛在地限制這些交易從積壓中退出的風險？

Yeah. So I mean there are a couple of things, Steven, that I'd say. And first of all, this is a little bit counterintuitive, but when the landscape changes, companies have to rethink their strategic positioning. And interestingly, when you look at dialogues, dialogues are increasing.

是的。所以我的意思是，史蒂文，我想說幾件事。首先，這有點違反直覺，但當情況發生變化時，公司必須重新考慮其策略定位。有趣的是，當你觀察對話時，你會發現對話正在增加。

Now obviously increased dialogues take a while to turn into deals and play through, but Denis was quite clear. We had a notable increase in our backlog. Our backlog was up a lot during the quarter. Obviously, revenues lag the period of deal announcements.

現在顯然增加的對話需要一段時間才能轉化為交易並完成，但丹尼斯非常清楚。我們的積壓訂單明顯增加。本季我們的積壓訂單大幅增加。顯然，收入落後於交易公告期。

So the backlog and the deal announcements are reflective of the second half of last year and the early part of this year. In a period of uncertainty, things will slow down. But again, it's a big complex world. There's a lot of change going on.

因此，積壓訂單和交易公告反映了去年下半年和今年年初的情況。在不確定的時期，事情會放緩。但話說回來，這是一個龐大而複雜的世界。很多變化正在發生。

Dialogues are up. I do think for a period of time, there'll be some uncertainty around how certain things that were close proceed forward. But I would expect a significant amount of M&A activity through the rest of the year.

對話正在進行。我確實認為，在一段時間內，某些即將發生的事情將如何繼續進行會存在一些不確定性。但我預計今年剩餘時間內將會出現大量的併購活動。

But obviously, if the landscape got more constrained, there's a risk of it slowing. But we're continuing to be out with clients doing the things that we do, and I don't see anything at the moment that leads me to believe that it's a fundamental shift in that activity.

但顯然，如果情況變得更加緊張，那麼發展就會有放緩的風險。但我們仍在繼續與客戶合作，做我們目前所做的事情，目前我還沒有看到任何跡象讓我相信這是這項活動的根本轉變。

Devin Ryan, Citizens.

德文·瑞安（Devin Ryan），公民。

I want to continue the conversation, I guess, on the sponsors. Obviously, on the asset management side of the business, fundraising for alt has been terrific. And then as you guys pointed out, LPs are waiting for capital.

我想繼續討論贊助商的問題。顯然，在資產管理業務方面，alt 的融資表現非常出色。正如你們指出的那樣，LP 正在等待資本。

So there's a lot of, I think pressure on sponsors to return capital. But the IRR is on the maybe the prior vintage that are being realized probably aren't going to be great. So I'm just curious kind of your conversations with sponsors and fundraising, is this an opportunity to further differentiate Goldman or just any other color given some of that tension between sponsors today in the market trying to return capital and what LPs are demanding?

因此，我認為贊助商面臨著很大的返還資本的壓力。但 IRR 可能在之前實現的年份不會很好。所以我只是好奇您與贊助商和籌款人的對話，考慮到當今市場上試圖返還資本的讚助商與 LP 的要求之間存在一些緊張關係，這是否是一個進一步區分高盛或其他顏色的機會？

Yeah. First of all, it's not clear to me that the returns from that vintage as it's realized over time are going to be better and worse. I think it's early to say, but the big thing that's changing or putting pressure on fundraising as the pace of capital return to the big capital allocators has been less than they expected.

是的。首先，我不清楚隨著時間的推移，該年份的回報會變好還是變壞。我認為現在下結論還為時過早，但最大的變化是，融資活動或面臨壓力，因為大型資本配置者的資本回報速度低於他們的預期。

And so as a result, because they're getting less back, the new capital that they're deploying into new funds is slowing until they get more back. That is balanced by the fact that we are still in long term secular growth with respect to private assets and private asset allocation overall.

因此，由於他們獲得的回報越來越少，他們投入新基金的新資本就會減少，直到他們獲得更多的回報。與此相平衡的事實是，我們的私人資產和私人資產配置總體上仍處於長期成長之中。

And I continue to think that that secular growth over the next 5, 10, 15 years is going to be meaningful as more people continue to shift to gain exposure to private assets. And by the way, that's not just institutional capital.

我仍然認為，隨著越來越多的人繼續轉向投資私人資產，未來 5 年、10 年、15 年的長期成長將會很有意義。順便說一句，這不僅僅是機構資本。

I think you're going to see meaningfully more participation from individual investors in all sorts of forms in private capital formation. And potentially ultimately, in retirement accounts, et cetera. And so I think we're in the early stages of continued secular growth.

我認為你會看到個人投資者以各種形式更多地參與私人資本形成。並且最終可能會出現在退休帳戶等等。因此我認為我們正處於持續長期成長的早期階段。

I think the track record matters a lot and investment performance matters a lot. We from an investment performance perspective are very, very focused on performance. Performance matters. We have a good history over 30 years of performing in these strategies.

我認為業績記錄很重要，投資績效也很重要。從投資績效的角度來看，我們非常非常注重績效。性能很重要。我們在實施這些策略方面有著 30 多年的良好歷史。

I think that matters a lot. But I think these are short term phenomena against long term strategic shifts. And while there can be bumps or slowdowns, et cetera, I think the long term direction of travel is really quite clear.

我認為這很重要。但我認為這些都是短期現象，與長期策略轉變背道而馳。儘管可能會出現一些坎坷或減速等等，但我認為長期的發展方向是相當明確的。

And then just a quick follow up on debt underwriting. It's been a really good story for Goldman. So just love to -- maybe just share a little bit about some of the other cyclicality in the business, some of the other puts and takes that are kind of driving results.

然後快速跟進債務承銷情況。對於高盛來說，這確實是一個好故事。所以我很願意——也許只是分享一些關於業務中的其他週期性，以及一些推動結果的其他利弊。

And then just the outlook from here just given that it does seem like you guys are taking some share there.

從現在來看，看起來你們確實在那裡佔據了一些份額。

Sure. So obviously, debt underwriting is a huge business for us. We focused on it for a very, very long period of time. We gave our sort of market share positions at number two across the non-investment grade components and more like a four in sort of the investment grade categories.

當然。顯然，債務承銷對我們來說是一項龐大的業務。我們專注於此很長一段時間。我們的市佔率在非投資等級成分中排名第二，在投資等級類別中排名第四。

It's a big business for us. It's an important business for us. And we have a track record I think importantly of delivering particularly when there are elevated times of uncertainty. We have a track record of being good risk takers in that business.

這對我們來說是一筆大生意。這對我們來說是一項重要的業務。我認為，我們有著良好的業績記錄，特別是在充滿不確定性的時期。我們在該行業有著良好的風險承擔記錄。

And when clients see an opportunity that an environment like this presents and they need to turn to a trusted counterparty who has the capability and the risk appetite to step up and support them, I think we have a long standing track record of doing that.

當客戶看到這樣的環境所帶來的機會時，他們需要向一個值得信賴、有能力、有風險承受能力、能夠挺身而出支持他們的交易對手求助，我認為我們在這方面有著長期的記錄。

The last several quarters have been more benign from a credit perspective. You've seen the balance of activity more refinancing and orientation. We've obviously had a very meaningful role to generate our market share positions. But should there be opportunities on the forward to do more transaction-based activity, I think the firm is well set up to do that as well.

從信貸角度來看，過去幾季的情況比較溫和。您已經看到活動平衡更多地體現在再融資和定位上。顯然，我們在創造市場份額方面發揮了非常重要的作用。但如果未來有機會開展更多基於交易的活動，我認為該公司也已做好充分準備。

Matt O-Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

I'll follow up on the capital discussion. You seem to have managed the balance sheet really well with this quarter both on the RWAs and the leverage assets. Anything to call out on that because again, like the standardized RWAs barely went up, advanced went down?

我會繼續關注有關資本的討論。本季度，你們似乎在風險加權資產和槓桿資產方面都管理得很好。有什麼需要注意的嗎？因為標準化風險加權資產幾乎沒有上漲，而高階風險加權資產卻下降了？

And usually, you see kind of the opposite what goes up in the first quarter. So any balance sheet optimization that you did this quarter to call out?

通常情況下，你會看到第一季出現相反的情況。那麼本季您做了哪些資產負債表優化呢？

Look, I appreciate the question and the observation. We're proud of how we've managed all of those metrics while delivering the type of performance and market shares that we have. I think the way I would phrase it is, we are accustomed to operating our financial resources in a very nimble fashion given where we sit.

瞧，我很欣賞這個問題和觀察。我們對自己在實現既定的業績和市場份額的同時管理所有這些指標感到自豪。我想我可以這樣說，考慮到我們所處的位置，我們習慣於以非常靈活的方式運作我們的財務資源。

And I think our team collectively performed really well with what we refer to as keen eyes on risk management. We also have a keen eye on financial resource deployment. And so it is -- as you see it, it's a strong performance on a financial resource adjusted basis.

我認為我們的團隊表現非常出色，我們對風險管理有著敏銳的洞察力。我們也非常關注金融資源的配置。事實確實如此——正如您所見，根據財務資源調整後的表現，這是一個強勁的表現。

And then separately, within the historical principal investment book, you had about a $600 million drop in somewhat tough quarter. What's your thought process on the pace from here? And just remind us of that target. I think it was by the end of next year you're targeting around $2 billion. Just remind us if that's right and still stands.

然後，另外，在歷史本金投資帳簿中，在一個較為艱難的季度裡，你的投資損失了約 6 億美元。您對接下來的步伐有何看法？並提醒我們這個目標。我認為到明年年底你們的目標是達到 20 億美元左右。只要提醒我們這是否正確並且仍然有效。

Sure. I appreciate that. Obviously, for the last several years, we have been reducing our historical principal investments that we call HPI. Several years ago, the balance was around $30 billion. If you went to the beginning of just last year, we had $16 billion in change of HPIs.

當然。我很感激。顯然，過去幾年來，我們一直在減少我們稱之為 HPI 的歷史本金投資。幾年前，餘額約300億美元。如果你回顧去年年初，我們的房屋價格指數 (HPI) 變化金額為 160 億美元。

We now sit with $8 billion in change of HPI. So we continue to meaningfully reduce those exposures. And we expect by the end of 2026, we'll have sold down the vast majority of exposures versus where we began. And we're committed to continuing to chip away at this.

我們現在有 80 億美元的 HPI 變化。因此，我們將繼續大幅減少這些風險。我們預計，到 2026 年底，我們將出售絕大多數風險敞口（相對於開始時的情況）。我們致力於繼續努力實現這一目標。

We have different sub asset classes that comprise the HPI. Some are easier than others, but we have a plan to sell down, and we're going to continue to execute on that.

我們有不同的子資產類別構成 HPI。有些比其他的更容易，但我們有一個出售計劃，我們將繼續執行。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

So my first question is a follow up on capital. So David, given what you said about the landscape and sort of freeing capital from the industry, we have strong momentum in terms of the stress test, G-SIB surcharge, recalibration, and then Betsy mentioned the SLR.

所以我的第一個問題是關於資本的後續問題。所以 David，考慮到您所說的行業情況和從行業中釋放資本的情況，我們在壓力測試、G-SIB 附加費、重新校準方面有著強勁的勢頭，然後 Betsy 提到了 SLR。

And the question for you is, you are already one of the most optimized businesses in financial services. If we do redefine the definition of excess capital for the industry broadly and for Goldman specifically, how are you going to allocate that freed up capital?

而你的問題是，你已經是金融服務領域最優化的企業之一。如果我們確實重新定義整個產業（尤其是高盛）的過剩資本，那麼您將如何分配這些釋放的資本？

How does your -- where do your priorities go? I appreciate the whole -- the stack in terms of clients first and buybacks but within the clients first, within the business, are there any places where you would reallocate even more capital if you do free up and/or change the definition of excess capital?

您的優先事項是什麼？我欣賞整體——從客戶至上和回購的角度來看，但在客戶至上、在業務範圍內，如果您確實釋放和/或改變過剩資本的定義，是否有地方會重新分配更多的資本？

I appreciate the question, Erika, and welcome to the team, by the way. I'm happy to have you.

順便說一句，我很感謝你的提問，Erika，歡迎加入團隊。我很高興有你。

Look, I know you're asking for probably more granularity than we'll give, but we have a zealous focus on finding opportunities to serve our clients and when we need capital to serve them, making sure we have adequate capital to allocate there.

聽著，我知道您要求的資訊可能比我們提供的資訊更詳細，但我們熱衷於尋找機會為我們的客戶提供服務，當我們需要資金為他們服務時，確保我們有足夠的資金來分配。

Obviously, a significant -- if you look at our business today and let's put the consumer -- what's left of the consumer platform aside for the moment. When you look at our business today, the additional capital that gets allocated into the business broadly gets allocated into the banking and markets franchise.

顯然，如果你看看我們今天的業務，讓我們把消費者放在一邊，那麼現在消費者平台還剩下什麼呢？當你審視我們今天的業務時，你會發現分配到業務中的額外資本大致都分配到了銀行和市場特許經營中。

We are prepared if there's opportunity there to allocate meaningfully more, but if there's not opportunity there, it's probably going to come back. That helps obviously support the growth in our dividend -- the sustainable growth in our dividend.

如果有機會，我們就會做好準備，分配更多資金，但如果沒有機會，它可能會再次出現。這顯然有助於支持我們的股息成長——股息的可持續成長。

And it really is kind of our capital waterfall of -- in the business or if not, return it. I will say over time, and this is all proportionate as we scale our alternatives platform, we use capital to start up new funds, to start up new platforms, so you could see some capital deployed there.

這實際上就是我們的資本瀑布——投入到業務中，或者如果不是，就將其返還。我想說的是，隨著時間的推移，這一切都是成比例的，因為我們擴大了替代平台，我們使用資本來啟動新的基金，啟動新的平台，所以你可以看到一些資本部署在那裡。

But it's all going to be in the context of marginal in that business. And that business is running as a much more capital light business on a go-forward basis than it did historically. And so if we do see this capital reform from a regulatory perspective, and as I said earlier, I think there's a good chance of that happening, it is going to allow us to do two things. One, probably return more capital, but two, also in the context of how we think about things, find some places where we can deploy a little bit more to support clients.

但這一切都將處於該業務的邊際背景。與過去相比，該業務未來的營運將更加輕資本化。因此，如果我們從監管角度看待這項資本改革，正如我之前所說，我認為這很有可能發生，它將使我們能夠做兩件事。第一，可能會返還更多的資本，但第二，在我們思考問題的方式中，找到一些我們可以部署更多資金來支持客戶的地方。

But we're going to watch it very carefully. The marginal -- the excess capital that we're keeping, the cushion that we're keeping is high. I don't think that's a normalized thing and it's not just us. You can look across the industry that everybody's going to run with these excess capital cushions.

但我們會非常仔細地觀察。邊際－我們保留的過剩資本、我們保留的緩衝都很高。我不認為這是正常的事情，而且這不僅僅是我們的情況。你可以縱觀整個產業，每個人都會利用這些多餘的資本緩衝。

When we get more, I think across the industry, there'll be a reset of what those cushions should be when people feel like they're in a position to be able to plan over multiple years of the capital cycle.

當我們獲得更多時，我認為整個產業都會重新設定這些緩衝應該是什麼，當人們覺得他們有能力規劃多年的資本週期時。

And my follow up question is this. So there's been increased questions from investors about how global investment banks like Goldman, how the standing is impacted by some of the policy volatility if you will in terms of your internationally sourced revenues.

我的後續問題是這樣的。因此，投資者越來越多地詢問，像高盛這樣的全球投資銀行，其國際收入狀況會受到哪些政策波動的影響。

And we had sort of two different answers from your peers on Friday. Jamie was a little bit more pessimistic. Ted was a little bit more optimistic about the international revenue, outlook going forward given all of the global policy volatility.

週五我們從您的同行那裡得到了兩種不同的答案。傑米則稍微悲觀一點。考慮到全球政策的波動性，泰德對未來的國際收入前景更為樂觀。

And David and Denis, I wanted to get your thoughts on that, on whether or not what the US is doing could impact some of that sourcing.

大衛和丹尼斯，我想聽聽你們對此的看法，看看美國的所作所為是否會影響部分採購。

Well, what we're hearing from clients, Erika, and I mean this is important is to be talking to clients, what we're hearing from clients, particularly clients in Europe and other places around the world, is they don't like the level of uncertainty and they don't like the fact that certain constructs for how they interacted with the US economic system, the global economic system, are potentially changing.

嗯，艾莉卡，我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息，我的意思是，與客戶交談很重要，我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息，特別是歐洲和世界其他地方的客戶，他們不喜歡這種程度的不確定性，他們不喜歡他們與美國經濟體系、全球經濟體系互動的某些結構可能會發生變化。

I would just say it's early to call, heads or tails, the direction of travel on how this will play out. We're listening to it carefully. At the same point, we run a huge scaled global franchise all over the world. We have extraordinary expertise and leadership positions in activities all over the world.

我只想說，現在就斷言事情將如何發展還為時過早，無論是正面還是反面。我們正在仔細聆聽。同時，我們在世界各地經營著規模龐大的全球特許經營店。我們在世界各地的活動中擁有非凡的專業知識和領導地位。

And I don't see any decline in any way, shape or form of clients' interest in dealing with Goldman Sachs in any part of the world, and I don't expect that to change on any significant basis. But certainly, as we engage with clients, we're hearing questions on these things.

我沒有看到世界任何地方的客戶與高盛打交道的興趣有任何下降，我預計這種情況不會發生任何重大變化。但可以肯定的是，當我們與客戶接觸時，我們聽到了這些事情的疑問。

I think it's early to declare one way or another as to whether or not at the margin, there's any effects from that. At the moment, all over the world, clients are extremely engaged with the firm.

我認為現在就斷言這是否會產生邊際影響還為時過早。目前，世界各地的客戶都與該公司保持著高度的互動。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Denis, you mentioned in your -- in answering your question about the HPI portfolio that you guys had just over $4 billion of CET1 capital I think it was that supports that portfolio. Can you remind us how will you bleed that capital back in releasing it back in or just releasing it, I should say?

丹尼斯，在回答有關 HPI 投資組合的問題時，您提到，你們擁有超過 40 億美元的 CET1 資本，我認為正是這些資本支撐了該投資組合。您能否提醒我們，您將如何將這些資本重新投入使用，或者我應該說只是釋放它？

I know when the $8.8 billion goes to zero, it'll be completely released, but is there a linear way of releasing it, or is it all come at the end when the portfolio drops to about zero?

我知道當 88 億美元降至零時，它將被完全釋放，但是否有一種線性的釋放方式，還是當投資組合降至零左右時，它就會全部釋放？

So I appreciate the question, Gerard. And look, as we have been selling down that portfolio, over time, we do free up capital and we have been returning a lot of that to shareholders. So we don't need to wait to the end of the sell down exercise to release that capital.

所以我很感謝你提出這個問題，傑拉德。而且，隨著我們不斷出售該投資組合，隨著時間的推移，我們確實釋放了資本，並將其中的大部分回饋給了股東。因此，我們不需要等到拋售活動結束才釋放資本。

In fact, you should expect that it'll be part of our capital management plan over the following quarters. And as we have this broader discussion around quantum and capacity to continue to return capital to shareholders, that is one of the drivers that will have us continuing to look to do that.

事實上，您應該預料到它將成為我們接下來幾個季度資本管理計劃的一部分。當我們就繼續向股東返還資本的數量和能力進行更廣泛的討論時，這是我們繼續尋求這樣做的驅動力之一。

And then coming back, David, you've mentioned it a few times in your prepared remarks but also in answering questions. Goldman's in a very unique position, having this global view of the world because of your size and your presence. Can you give us any color on with the uncertainties going forward, is it -- are they more elevated here in the United States than when you talk to clients in Europe or Asia?

然後回過頭來，大衛，你在準備好的發言中以及在回答問題時提到過幾次。高盛的地位非常獨特，憑藉其規模和影響力，我們能夠看到全球的情況。您能否向我們介紹未來的不確定性？與您與歐洲或亞洲的客戶交談時相比，美國的不確定性是否更高？

If you had the lay of the land, where is the greatest uncertainty or the greatest worry when you talk to CEOs around the world?

如果您了解當地情況，那麼當您與世界各地的執行長交談時，最大的不確定性或最大的擔憂是什麼？

So Gerard, I mean it's a good question. And I would say the level of uncertainty is up significantly. And it's partially up because growth was slowing down before we got to the implementation of trade policy. And the implementation of trade policy reset the prospect of forward growth pretty significantly all over the world.

所以傑拉德，我認為這是個好問題。我想說不確定性程度顯著上升。部分原因是，在我們實施貿易政策之前，經濟成長就已經放緩了。貿易政策的實施極大地改變了世界各地未來成長的前景。

I would say that when you get outside of the US and I listen to CEOs, I hear a greater sense of short term concern, but everyone would like less uncertainty and more clarity on forward policy. And that's what we're hearing from clients.

我想說的是，當你走出美國並聆聽執行長們的演講時，我聽到的是更多的短期擔憂，但每個人都希望減少不確定性並提高前瞻性政策的清晰度。這就是我們從客戶那裡聽到的。

They want to understand where the policy will settle out so that they can make capital decisions, investment decisions, planning decisions when you're talking to CEOs. When you're talking to investors, investors invest by predicting the future, and they'd obviously like less uncertainty so they can have a better window into predicting the future.

他們希望了解政策將如何實施，以便在與執行長交談時能夠做出資本決策、投資決策和規劃決策。當你與投資者交談時，投資者透過預測未來進行投資，他們顯然希望減少不確定性，以便他們能夠更好地預測未來。

My guess is over time, this level of uncertainty will come down and my general message to people is to go slow, and take a pause here until we have more clarity around a lot of these issues.

我猜測隨著時間的推移，這種不確定性的程度將會下降，我對人們的整體建議是放慢腳步，暫停一下，直到我們對這些問題有了更清晰的認識。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，Seaport Global Securities。

We've seen very strong results in equities across the industry at or near record levels, but the industry performance in FICC has been a lot more muted. In your opinion, is that FICC or is that that FICC is already operating at a high level, or do you see opportunities for aspects of that business to improve from here? Just trying to frame the outlook on FICC.

我們看到整個行業的股票表現非常強勁，達到或接近歷史最高水平，但 FICC 行業的表現卻低迷得多。您認為這是 FICC 嗎？或者 FICC 是否已在高水平運營，或者您是否看到該業務的某些方面有改進的機會？只是想建構 FICC 的前景。

I think you've seen the most notable sort of period on period growth across the equity line, particularly, equity intermediation type activities. FICC obviously is not a uniform asset class. It has multiple subcomponents to it.

我認為你已經看到了股權領域最顯著的逐期成長，特別是股權中介類型的活動。FICC顯然不是一個統一的資產類別。它有多個子組件。

And you can have different sort of behavioral patterns across the subcomponents of FICC, but the FICC business and the FICC markets are absolutely enormous. And the clients that participate across the components of FICC are some of the largest clients in the world.

你可以在 FICC 的各個子組件中擁有不同類型的行為模式，但 FICC 業務和 FICC 市場絕對是巨大的。參與 FICC 各個組成部分的客戶都是世界上最大的客戶之一。

We expect there continue to be good opportunities to drive activity with clients across both FICC and equities.

我們預計，將繼續有良好的機會推動 FICC 和股票領域的客戶活動。

And I'd also just caution you, Jim. We had an extraordinary first quarter in 2024 when you look at year over year comparisons. And by the way, there was a lot of activity in the first quarter of 2024. Year over year comparisons sometimes can cloud.

我還要提醒你一下，吉姆。與去年同期相比，2024 年第一季表現非凡。順便說一句，2024 年第一季有很多活動。逐年比較有時會產生混淆。

When you look at the growth and assets and resources over the last five years against the FICC business, the growth has been pretty meaningful.

如果回顧過去五年 FICC 業務的成長、資產和資源，就會發現成長非常顯著。

Sure. Yeah, no, I appreciate that. But just maybe thinking through, what areas might be underperforming right now, if any, that could improve in a better environment versus just maybe the different components which you're doing well and which you're doing are underperforming if possible?

當然。是的，不，我很感激。但是也許只是仔細想想，目前哪些領域可能表現不佳（如果有的話），哪些領域可以在更好的環境中得到改善，而不是僅僅考慮您做得好和做得不好的不同部分（如果可能的話）？

Well, I mean it wouldn't surprise you. Yes, it wouldn't surprise you, for example, that there's enormous activity in volumes in currencies at the moment given this shift in the way people are thinking about and looking at the dollar.

嗯，我的意思是這不會讓你感到驚訝。是的，考慮到人們對美元的思考和看法的轉變，目前貨幣交易量巨大，這並不會讓你感到驚訝。

And so activity levels there are extraordinarily high, record activity levels. One of the things that again I just highlight about these businesses, these are big, broad, deep, diverse global businesses. And one lever can be up, one lever can be down.

因此那裡的活動水平異常高，創下了活動水平的新高。關於這些企業，我要再次強調的一點是，它們都是規模龐大、範圍廣泛、深度深厚、多樣化的全球企業。一個槓桿可以向上，一個槓桿可以向下。

But when you look at the performance -- over a period of time, when you look at that market's performance over the last five or six years, it's relatively steady with a little bit of growth.

但是，當你觀察一段時間內的表現時，當你觀察過去五、六年該市場的表現時，你會發現它相對穩定，並且略有增長。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

I hate to be the dead horse here on capital, but I did want to follow up on Betsy and Matt's questions and what they mean for RWA progression. RWA is up slightly this quarter. Your peers had much bigger increases. Markets in RWA is down, large down. If I look at RWA density on a standardized basis, it came down quite a bit.

我不想成為資本問題上的廢話，但我確實想跟進 Betsy 和 Matt 的問題以及它們對 RWA 進展的意義。本季 RWA 略有上升。你的同儕的成長幅度更大。風險加權資產市場下跌，跌幅較大。如果我從標準化的角度來看待 RWA 密度，它會下降很多。

It's at its lowest level, I think that I can see in recent history. So just is there anything unusual in terms of RWA progression or VAR or exposures? And how do we just rethink about RWA density and RWA progression from here because it obviously does matter in terms of forecasting CET1 ratios and the level of excess capital over time?

我認為，這是近代史上最低的水準。那麼，就 RWA 進展、VAR 或風險暴露而言，有什麼異常嗎？我們如何從現在開始重新思考 RWA 密度和 RWA 進展，因為這對於預測 CET1 比率和一段時間內的過剩資本水準顯然很重要？

Sure. So again, not to beat a dead horse, but I think what we would say is we look at that very, very carefully. When we start our own business planning, we use our own form of RWA projections and we think about our own capacity to step in and support client activities.

當然。所以，我再說一遍，不是在重複老生常談，而是我想我們會非常非常仔細地看待這個問題。當我們開始自己的業務規劃時，我們使用自己的 RWA 預測形式，並考慮我們自己介入和支援客戶活動的能力。

And we are meaningfully focused on those exposures that have high density versus low density. You can see us sort of moving out of certain exposures that have high capital density. The best example would be some of the historical principal investments. And we are feeding other activities.

我們專注於那些高密度而非低密度的曝光。您可以看到我們正在擺脫某些資本密度高的風險敞口。最好的例子就是一些歷史性的本金投資。我們也正在進行其他活動。

I can stay in the same segment for a moment. Like private wealth lending, which have a lower level of capital density and have an attractive recurring revenue component to them and also brings forth other types of activities with those clients.

我可以暫時停留在同一個片段。就像私人財富借貸一樣，其資本密度較低，具有有吸引力的經常性收入成分，也為這些客戶帶來了其他類型的活動。

So we look across the entirety of the firm, we look across each and each and every segment, and we look at which of our client-based activities are more or less capital consumptive, and we try and make sure that we're supporting the clients with the products that they demand from us and doing it in as capital efficient fashion as we can.

因此，我們縱觀整個公司，審視每個部門，看看哪些基於客戶的活動消耗的資本更多或更少，我們盡力確保我們為客戶提供他們所需的產品，並儘可能以資本高效的方式進行。

Maybe just to follow up with a very ticky-tacky question on tax rates. I think you mentioned 21%. I think the previous guide was 20% if I'm not mistaken despite this quarter being -- having it benefited from some discrete items.

也許只是想問一個關於稅率的非常棘手的問題。我認為您提到了 21%。我認為，如果我沒有記錯的話，先前的指引是 20%，儘管本季受益於一些離散項目。

But I guess that going forward, tax rates should be roughly in the 23% range for the rest of the year if my math's right. I mean just any color on how to think about your tax rate going forward for the rest of the year and what it looks like on a more normalized basis?

但我估計，如果我的計算正確的話，今年剩餘時間的稅率應該大致在 23% 左右。我的意思是，您如何看待今年剩餘時間的稅率，以及在更規範的基礎上稅率會是什麼樣子？

Sure. Our guidance to take into account everything that we know about the first quarter and our outlook for this year is that you should expect the tax rate around 21% for the full year.

當然。考慮到我們對第一季的所有了解以及對今年的展望，我們的指導意見是，預計全年稅率將在 21% 左右。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞集團。

Just a follow up on the outlook for the fee rate within asset and wealth. You talked about the OCIO wins and obviously, you continue to grow in Alts. So as you think about it on a longer term basis, should this mix shift be higher or do you think those will offset each other?

只是對資產和財富中費率前景的追蹤。您談到了 OCIO 的勝利，顯然，您在 Alts 方面繼續成長。因此，從長遠角度考慮，這種混合轉變是否應該更高，或者您認為它們會相互抵消？

And then also in the quarter, were there any placement fees in the context of the management fee as you reported it?

那麼在本季度，您所報告的管理費中是否有任何安置費？

Sure. A couple of things. We did comment that placement fees were down sequentially versus the fourth quarter. That was one of the components in the other fee line. To take a step back, you have an aggregation represented in the effective fee of the alts business.

當然。有幾件事。我們確實評論說，與第四季度相比，安置費用環比下降。這是其他費用項目中的一個組成部分。退一步來說，您有一個以 alts 業務的有效費用表示的聚合。

We don't manage the business to the average effective fee. We actually have multiple different strategies, and we have demand from different client subcomponents for those strategies. And so we're focused on building our different fund strategies in response to client demand, but not necessarily trying to boil it all down to one effective fee.

我們不以平均有效費用來管理業務。我們實際上有多種不同的策略，並且不同的客戶子組件對這些策略有需求。因此，我們專注於根據客戶需求建立不同的基金策略，但不一定將其全部歸結為一項有效費用。

At this time, that will close our Q&A portion.

我們的問答部分到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes The Goldman Sachs first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，高盛 2025 年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。