高盛 (GS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Katie, and I'll be your conference facilitator.

我叫凱蒂，我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎大家參加高盛 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer.

我將代表高盛在電話會議開始時發表以下免責聲明。

The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures and is copyrighted material of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without consent.

此收益簡報可在投資者關係網站上找到，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則衡量標準的信息，並且是高盛集團有限公司的版權材料，未經同意不得複製、轉載或轉播。

This call is being recorded today, October 15, 2024.

本次通話錄音於今天（2024 年 10 月 15 日）進行。

I will now turn the call over to the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman.

我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼執行長大衛‧所羅門 (David Solomon)；和財務長丹尼斯·科爾曼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

所羅門先生，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you all for joining us.

感謝大家加入我們。

In the third quarter, we produced net revenues of $12.7 billion and generated earnings per share of $8.40,an ROE of 10.4% and an RoTE of 11.1%.

第三季度，我們的淨收入為 127 億美元，每股收益為 8.40 美元，ROE 為 10.4%，RoTE 為 11.1%。

Overall, I'm pleased with our performance, especially in our quarter where our results were impacted by selected items, including the narrowing of our consumer footprint which reduced our ROE by 80 basis points.

總體而言，我對我們的業績感到滿意，特別是在本季度，我們的業績受到選定項目的影響，包括消費者足蹟的縮小，這使我們的 ROE 降低了 80 個基點。

Our performance demonstrates the strength of our world-class and interconnected franchises where we were effectively serving clients a complex backdrop.

我們的業績證明了我們世界一流且相互關聯的特許經營權的實力，我們在複雜的背景下有效地為客戶提供服務。

In Global Banking and Markets, we remain the premier M&A adviser and a leading global risk intermediary.

在全球銀行和市場領域，我們仍然是首屈一指的併購顧問和全球領先的風險中介機構。

Across investment banking, corporates and sponsors remain actively engaged, and we see significant pent-up demand from our clients.

在整個投資銀行領域，企業和贊助商仍然積極參與，我們看到客戶的大量被壓抑的需求。

Our backlog rose again this quarter driven by advisory and we expect our leading investment banking franchise to benefit from the continued resurgence in activity.

在諮詢的推動下，本季我們的積壓訂單再次增加，我們預計我們領先的投資銀行業務將從活動的持續復甦中受益。

In FICC, we delivered record financing revenues and facilitated our clients risk intermediation needs, particularly as activity levels picked up towards the end of the quarter.

在 FICC 方面，我們實現了創紀錄的融資收入，並滿足了客戶的風險中介需求，特別是在本季末活動水準回升的情況下。

And in equities, we reported a very strong performance across both intermediation and financing.

在股票方面，我們報告了中介和融資方面的強勁表現。

Overall, our global broad and deep platforms remain exceptionally well positioned to support our clients' evolving needs across products and asset classes.

總體而言，我們的全球廣泛而深入的平台仍然處於非常有利的地位，可以支援客戶在產品和資產類別中不斷變化的需求。

In the Asset & Wealth Management, our position as a leading global active asset manager, a top 5 alternative player and a premier ultra-high net worth franchise affords us significant opportunities in secular growth areas.

在資產和財富管理領域，我們作為全球領先的主動資產管理公司、排名前 5 名的另類資產管理公司和一流的超高淨值特許經營權，為我們在長期成長領域提供了巨大的機會。

Our assets under supervision reached another record this quarter, surpassing $3 trillion and representing our 27th consecutive quarter of long-term net inflows.

本季我們的監理資產再創新高，超過 3 兆美元，連續 27 季實現長期淨流入。

We demonstrated further growth in more durable management other fees and private banking and lending revenues, which together were a record $3.4 billion this quarter and up 9% versus last year.

我們展示了更持久的管理其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款收入的進一步增長，本季度這些收入合計達到創紀錄的 34 億美元，比去年增長 9%。

We remain confident in our ability to grow these more durable revenues at a high single-digit pace over the coming years.

我們對未來幾年以高單位數速度增長這些更持久的收入的能力仍然充滿信心。

In alternatives, fundraising remains strong.

另一方面，籌款活動依然強勁。

We raised over $50 billion year-to-date and now expect 2024 fundraising to exceed $60 billion as we see ongoing demand across asset classes, including private credit, private equity, secondaries and infrastructure.

今年迄今為止，我們籌集了超過500 億美元，現在預計2024 年的籌款額將超過600 億美元，因為我們看到包括私人信貸、私募股權、二級市場和基礎設施在內的各種資產類別的持續需求。

In Wealth Management, we grew our total client assets to $1.6 trillion, and our ultra high net worth franchise is well positioned to continue to grow globally as we expand our adviser footprint and our leading offerings and our lending offerings to clients.

在財富管理方面，我們的客戶總資產增加至1.6 兆美元，隨著我們擴大顧問業務、領先的產品和向客戶提供的貸款產品，我們的超高淨值特許經營業務已做好在全球範圍內繼續增長的準備。

Our pretax margin in AWM is up meaningfully from last year and in line with our mid-20s target.

我們的 AWM 稅前利潤率較去年大幅上升，符合我們 20 多歲的目標。

We remain focused on further improving the margins and returns in this business while also investing to drive growth across wealth management, alternatives and solutions.

我們仍專注於進一步提高該業務的利潤和回報，同時也進行投資以推動財富管理、另類投資和解決方案的成長。

As I look at the operating backdrop, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient.

從我的經營背景來看，美國經濟持續保持彈性。

Inflation has been coming down.

通貨膨脹一直在下降。

The recent unemployment data is supportive, and while we've seen some softness in consumer behavior, the tone of my recent conversations with clients has been quite constructive.

最近的失業數據是支持性的，雖然我們看到消費者行為有些疲軟，但我最近與客戶交談的基調相當有建設性。

The beginning of the rate cut cycle has renewed optimism for a soft landing, which should spur increased economic activity.

降息週期的開始重新燃起了對軟著陸的樂觀情緒，這應該會刺激經濟活動的增加。

More broadly, clients remain highly focused on the trajectory of rates in jurisdictions around the world, the policy implications of global elections, particularly in the U.S. and the high levels of geopolitical instability.

更廣泛地說，客戶仍然高度關注世界各地司法管轄區的利率軌跡、全球選舉（尤其是美國）的政策影響以及地緣政治的高度不穩定。

Against this backdrop, our leading global franchises are supporting our clients as they navigate risks and position themselves for a range of outcomes.

在此背景下，我們領先的全球特許經營商正在為我們的客戶提供支持，幫助他們應對風險並為實現一系列結果做好準備。

Before I turn it over to Denis, I want to spend a moment on capital and Basel III revisions.

在將其交給丹尼斯之前，我想花點時間討論一下資本和巴塞爾協議 III 的修訂。

Although we have closely followed the recent remarks from regulatory officials about the upcoming re-proposal, we continue to have concerns about the overall regulatory process.

儘管我們密切關注監管官員最近關於即將推出的重新提案的言論，但我們仍然對整體監管流程感到擔憂。

There remains a lack of transparency and appreciation for the interconnectedness of capital requirements across the proposed fundamental review of the trading book, CCAR and the GSIB buffer.

對於交易帳戶、CCAR 和 GSIB 緩衝擬議基本審查中資本要求的相互關聯性，仍然缺乏透明度和認識。

We recognize this is an ongoing process that will take time.

我們認識到這是一個持續的過程，需要時間。

But as we've said before, we need to get this right.

但正如我們之前所說，我們需要把這件事做好。

The final rule will have a significant impact on the growth and competitiveness of the U.S. economy.

最終規則將對美國經濟的成長和競爭力產生重大影響。

Requiring too much capital will increase the cost of credit for businesses large and small and will impact growth across the country.

需要過多的資本將增加大大小小的企業的信貸成本，並將影響全國的成長。

We look forward to receiving more clarity from our regulators once the reproposal is published and participating in the new comment period.

一旦提案發布並參與新的意見徵詢期，我們期待監管機構提供更明確的資訊。

We remain very engaged both as an industry and as a firm.

作為一個行業和一家公司，我們仍然非常積極參與。

In closing, I feel very good about the trajectory of Goldman Sachs.

最後，我對高盛的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

We are leaning into our strength.

我們正在依靠我們的力量。

Our client franchise is stronger than ever, and we continue to harness our One Goldman Sachs approach.

我們的客戶特許經營權比以往任何時候都更強大，我們將繼續利用我們的 One Goldman Sachs 方法。

Our world-class talent execution capabilities and risk management expertise are core to who we are as a firm and allow us to provide differentiated service to our clients and outperform for shareholders through the cycle.

我們世界一流的人才執行能力和風險管理專業知識是我們作為一家公司的核心，使我們能夠為客戶提供差異化的服務，並在整個週期中為股東提供超越的表現。

Let me now turn it over to Denis to cover our financial results in more detail.

現在讓我將其轉交給丹尼斯，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Good morning.

早安.

Let's start with our results on Page 1 of the presentation.

讓我們從簡報第一頁的結果開始。

In the third quarter, we generated net revenues of $12.7 billion, up 7% year-over-year.

第三季度，我們實現淨收入 127 億美元，年增 7%。

Earnings per share of $8.40, up 54% year-over-year.

每股收益8.40美元，年增54%。

Our ROE was 10.4% and an RoTE of 11.1%.

我們的 ROE 為 10.4%，RoTE 為 11.1%。

As David mentioned, our results were impacted by select items, including agreements to transition the GM card platform and to sell our portfolio of seller financing loans.

正如 David 所提到的，我們的表現受到某些項目的影響，包括過渡 GM 卡平台和出售我們的賣方融資貸款組合的協議。

In aggregate, these items reduced EPS by $0.62 and our ROE by 80 basis points.

總的來說，這些項目使 EPS 降低了 0.62 美元，ROE 降低了 80 個基點。

Now turning to performance by segment, starting on Page 4.

現在從第 4 頁開始按細分市場劃分績效。

Global Banking & Markets produced revenues of $8.6 billion in the third quarter.

全球銀行與市場第三季營收達 86 億美元。

Advisory revenues of $875 million were up both sequentially and versus the prior year period.

諮詢收入環比和去年同期均成長 8.75 億美元。

We remain number one in the league tables for announced and completed M&A for the year-to-date.

我們在今年迄今已宣布和完成的併購排行榜上仍然排名第一。

Equity underwriting revenues rose 25% year-over-year to $385 million as equity capital markets have continued to reopen, though volumes are still well below longer-term averages.

隨著股權資本市場繼續重新開放，股票承銷收入年增 25% 至 3.85 億美元，但交易量仍遠低於長期平均水準。

Debt underwriting revenues rose 46% year-over-year to $605 million amid higher leveraged finance and investment-grade activity.

由於槓桿融資和投資等級活動的增加，債務承銷收入年增 46% 至 6.05 億美元。

We are seeing increased client demand for committed acquisition financing, which we expect to continue on the back of increasing M&A activity.

我們看到客戶對承諾收購融資的需求不斷增加，我們預計隨著併購活動的增加，這種需求將持續下去。

Overall, our investment banking backlog rose quarter-on-quarter, driven by advisory.

整體而言，在諮詢服務的推動下，我們的投資銀行積壓訂單較上季增加。

FICC net revenues of $3 billion in the quarter were down from a strong performance last year amid a relatively quieter summer, though we saw a meaningful pickup in activity in September.

儘管我們看到 9 月的活動顯著回升，但在夏季相對平靜的情況下，本季 FICC 淨收入為 30 億美元，較去年的強勁表現有所下降。

A decline in intermediation revenues was partially offset by record FICC financing revenues of $949 million, which rose 30% year-over-year, primarily on better results within mortgages and structured lending.

中介收入的下降被創紀錄的 9.49 億美元 FICC 融資收入所部分抵消，該收入同比增長 30%，這主要是由於抵押貸款和結構性貸款方面的更好業績。

Equities net revenues were $3.5 billion in the quarter, up 18% versus the prior year.

該季度股票淨收入為 35 億美元，比上年增長 18%。

Equities intermediation revenues were $2.2 billion, up 29% year-over-year, primarily driven by strong performance across derivatives and cash products.

股票中介營收為 22 億美元，年增 29%，主要受到衍生性商品和現金產品強勁表現的推動。

Equities financing revenues of $1.3 billion rose versus the prior year amid higher average balances.

由於平均餘額增加，股票融資收入較前一年增加 13 億美元。

Across FICC and Equities, financing revenues were a record $6.6 billion for the year-to-date, a direct result of the successful execution on our strategic priority to improve the durability of our revenue base.

FICC 和股票領域的融資收入今年迄今達到創紀錄的 66 億美元，這是我們成功執行提高收入基礎持久性戰略重點的直接結果。

Moving to Asset & Wealth Management on Page 5.

前往第 5 頁的資產和財富管理。

Revenues of $3.8 billion were up 16% year-over-year.

營收達 38 億美元，年增 16%。

Our more durable management and other fees and private banking and lending revenues reached a new record this quarter of $3.4 billion.

我們更持久的管理費和其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款收入本季創下了 34 億美元的新紀錄。

Management and other fees increased 3% sequentially to a record $2.6 billion for the quarter, and $7.6 billion for the year-to-date, well on the way to achieving our $10 billion annual target for 2024.

本季管理費和其他費用季增 3%，達到創紀錄的 26 億美元，今年迄今為 76 億美元，預計將實現 2024 年 100 億美元的年度目標。

Private Banking and lending revenues rose sequentially to $756 million.

私人銀行和貸款收入連續成長至 7.56 億美元。

We are seeing positive momentum in this business, and we remain focused on increasing lending penetration and extending our loan product offerings.

我們看到這項業務的積極勢頭，我們仍然專注於提高貸款滲透率和擴大我們的貸款產品範圍。

Incentive fees for the quarter were $85 million.

本季的激勵費用為 8500 萬美元。

We continue to expect to reach our annual target of $1 billion over the medium term, supported by approximately $4 billion of unrecognized incentive fees as of the last quarter.

我們繼續預期在中期達到 10 億美元的年度目標，截至上季約有 40 億美元未確認的激勵費用。

Equity and debt investment revenues totaled $294 million, reflecting NII in our debt portfolio and markups in our public equity portfolio.

股權和債務投資收入總計 2.94 億美元，反映了我們債務投資組合中的 NII 以及公共股權投資組合中的加價。

For the year-to-date, we generated $1.5 billion in combined equity and debt investments revenues.

今年迄今為止，我們的股權和債務投資合併收入為 15 億美元。

Now moving to Page 6.

現在轉到第 6 頁。

Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record of $3.1 trillion, bolstered by $37 billion of liquidity products net inflows and $29 billion of long-term net inflows across asset classes.

本季末，受監管總資產達到創紀錄的 3.1 兆美元，這得益於 370 億美元的流動性產品淨流入和 290 億美元的跨資產類別長期淨流入。

We continue to see traction in our solutions business, where we are leveraging our SMA capabilities and outsourced CIO platform to deliver customized multi-asset solutions.

我們繼續看到解決方案業務的吸引力，我們利用 SMA 功能和外包 CIO 平台來提供客製化的多元資產解決方案。

Turning to Page 7 on alternatives.

請參閱第 7 頁有關替代方案的內容。

Alternative AUS totaled $328 billion at the end of the third quarter, driving $527 million in management and other fees.

截至第三季末，另類澳洲總收入為 3,280 億美元，其中管理費和其他費用為 5.27 億美元。

Gross third-party fundraising was $16 billion in the third quarter and over $50 billion for the year-to-date.

第三季第三方募款總額為 160 億美元，今年迄今已超過 500 億美元。

This brings cumulative third-party fundraising to more than $300 billion since our Investor Day in 2020.

自 2020 年投資者日以來，這使得第三方籌款累計超過 3,000 億美元。

We further reduced our historical principal investment portfolio by $1.7 billion in the third quarter to $10.9 billion, bringing year-to-date reductions to $5.4 billion.

第三季度，我們進一步將歷史本金投資組合減少了 17 億美元，至 109 億美元，使年初至今的減少額達到 54 億美元。

On Page 9, firm-wide net interest income was $2.6 billion in the quarter, up versus the prior year period, reflecting an increase in interest-earning assets.

第 9 頁顯示，本季全公司淨利息收入為 26 億美元，高於去年同期，反映出生息資產的增加。

Our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $192 billion up year-over-year driven by an increase in other collateralized lending.

由於其他抵押貸款的增加，我們季度末的貸款組合總額年增 1,920 億美元。

For the third quarter, our provision for credit losses was $397 million, primarily driven by net charge-offs in our credit card portfolio and partially offset by $70 million of net recoveries on previously impaired wholesale loans.

第三季度，我們的信貸損失準備金為 3.97 億美元，主要是由信用卡投資組合中的淨沖銷推動的，並被先前減值批發貸款的 7,000 萬美元淨回收額部分抵銷。

Turning to expenses on Page 10.

轉向第 10 頁的費用。

Total quarterly operating expenses were $8.3 billion.

季度營運支出總額為 83 億美元。

Our year-to-date compensation ratio net of provisions is 33.5%.

年初至今扣除撥備後的薪資率為 33.5%。

Quarterly noncompensation expenses were $4.2 billion, down 14% year-over-year.

季度非薪酬支出為 42 億美元，年減 14%。

We remain focused on driving efficiencies across the firm, given ongoing inflationary pressures, competition for talent and our desire to invest in our engineering and technology platforms.

考慮到持續的通膨壓力、人才競爭以及我們投資工程和技術平台的願望，我們仍然專注於提高整個公司的效率。

Our effective tax rate for the first nine months of 2024 was 22.6%.

2024 年前 9 個月我們的有效稅率為 22.6%。

For the full year, we continue to expect a tax rate of approximately 22%.

我們預計全年稅率仍約為 22%。

Next, capital on Slide 11.

接下來，請看投影片 11。

In the quarter, we returned $2 billion to common shareholders, including dividends of $978 million and stock repurchases of $1 billion.

本季度，我們向普通股股東返還 20 億美元，其中包括 9.78 億美元的股息和 10 億美元的股票回購。

Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 14.6% at the end of the third quarter under the supervised approach.

根據監理法，截至第三季末，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 14.6%。

During the quarter, the Federal Reserve reduced our SCB requirement by 20 basis points to 6.2% following a successful appeal process, resulting in a standardized common equity Tier 1 ratio requirement of 13.7%, which became effective October 1.

本季度，在上訴程序成功後，聯準會將 SCB 要求降低了 20 個基點至 6.2%，標準化普通股一級資本比率要求為 13.7%，並於 10 月 1 日生效。

We remain very engaged with our regulators on creating a less volatile and more transparent process.

我們仍然與監管機構密切合作，以創建波動性較小、更透明的流程。

Given our 90 basis point buffer, we continue to have flexibility on capital deployment and are very well positioned to serve our clients and return capital to shareholders.

鑑於我們 90 個基點的緩衝，我們在資本部署方面繼續保持靈活性，並且處於非常有利的位置來服務我們的客戶並將資本返還給股東。

In conclusion, our overall performance reflected the strength of our client franchise and the improving operating environment.

總之，我們的整體業績反映了我們客戶特許經營的實力和不斷改善的營運環境。

We are executing on our strategy, where we are maintaining and strengthening our leadership positions across global banking and markets and leaning into secular growth opportunities in Asset & Wealth Management.

我們正在執行我們的策略，維持和加強我們在全球銀行業和市場的領導地位，並傾向於資產和財富管理領域的長期成長機會。

Across both businesses, we are making strong progress in growing our more durable revenue streams.

在這兩項業務中，我們在增加更持久的收入流方面都取得了巨大進展。

Simply put, we are playing to our strength as a firm, and we remain confident in our ability to drive returns for shareholders while continuing to support our clients.

簡而言之，我們正在發揮作為一家公司的優勢，我們對在繼續支持客戶的同時為股東帶來回報的能力充滿信心。

With that, I will now open up the lines for questions.

現在，我將開放提問熱線。

Here, we will take a moment to compile the Q&A roster.

在這裡，我們將花一些時間來整理問答名單。

(Operator Instructions) Glenn Schorr with Evercore

（操作員說明）Glenn Schorr 與 Evercore

Hi, thanks very much.

你好，非常感謝。

So the trading question.

那麼交易問題。

I mean markets business has been great.

我的意思是市場業務一直都很棒。

Markets have been supportive.

市場一直給予支持。

But I guess my question is to your comments on the regulatory perception perhaps of trading in general.

但我想我的問題是關於您對一般交易的監管看法的評論。

And August looked like a spike in volatility, but it looks like you did really well.

八月看起來波動性激增，但看起來你做得很好。

This marks many quarters that you and others have done very well for years.

這標誌著您和其他人多年來在許多方面都表現出色。

Do you feel the business is managed better?

您覺得企業管理得更好嗎？

Do you feel like your results mean anything towards the outcome on the regulatory side?

您認為您的結果對監管方面的結果有什麼意義嗎？

I'm just curious on what the if the evidence matters.

我只是好奇如果證據很重要的話會怎麼樣。

I appreciate the question, Glenn.

我很欣賞這個問題，格倫。

And I mean it's a hard question to answer.

我的意思是這是一個很難回答的問題。

I think we've been clear on some of the advocacy we're doing around the regulatory process, but I've also been clear that regulatory environments ebb and flow and that people can be policy.

我認為我們已經明確了我們圍繞監管流程所做的一些宣傳，但我也明確表示，監管環境會潮起潮落，人們可以成為政策的製定者。

And so over time, you see shifts in all this.

隨著時間的推移，你會看到這一切都改變了。

And our job, and I think we've done this effectively over a very long period of time is to adapt and adjust and be nimble to the different regulatory environments.

我們的工作，我認為我們在很長一段時間內有效地做到了這一點，就是適應和調整併靈活地適應不同的監管環境。

With respect to the business of markets, which includes FICC intermediation and FICC financing and equities intermediation and equities financing, I think we have an extraordinary leading franchise that we've invested in over a long period of time.

就市場業務而言，包括FICC中介和FICC融資以及股權中介和股權融資，我認為我們擁有非凡的領先特許經營權，並且我們已經投資了很長一段時間。

We have deep, deep client relationships, clients who rely on us for a package of services, and that's not going away.

我們擁有非常深厚的客戶關係，客戶依賴我們提供一攬子服務，而且這種關係不會消失。

And certainly, in this environment, this is an environment that's filled with uncertainty, their need to constantly be engaging and repositioning and reshaping continues to make them very, very active on a broad global scale.

當然，在這種環境下，這是一個充滿不確定性的環境，他們不斷參與、重新定位和重塑的需要繼續使他們在廣泛的全球範圍內非常非常活躍。

I think that we've done a number of things to evolve the way we run the business over time that I think have made the business more durable.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們已經做了很多事情來改善我們經營業務的方式，我認為這些事情使我們的業務變得更加持久。

Certainly, our focus and our emphasis on financing and the way we've grown and managed the financing businesses, puts the level of durability into the business that's different than when the businesses were predominantly intermediation businesses.

當然，我們對融資的關注和重視，以及我們發展和管理融資業務的方式，使業務的耐用性水平與業務主要是中介業務時不同。

But intermediation continues to be an important service.

但中介仍是一項重要的服務。

And when you really step back and you step out of quarter-to-quarter and you look more year-to-year or year-over-year, these are very broad franchises across numerous silos and they tend to be more resilient and more consistent than one might see when you look quarter-to-quarter.

當你真正退後一步，走出季度與季度的對比，你會發現這些是跨越眾多孤島的非常廣泛的特許經營權，並且它們往往更具彈性和一致性比你逐季度查看時可能看到的要多。

So we feel good about the way the franchise is positioned.

所以我們對特許經營的定位方式感到滿意。

We'll continue to invest in it and grow it.

我們將繼續投資並發展它。

I think one of the things that people forget is that these businesses are correlated to growth in the world.

我認為人們忘記的一件事是這些業務與世界的成長有關。

They're correlated to market cap growth in the world.

它們與世界市值成長相關。

And as long as you believe over the medium and long term, those trends will continue with our capital generation, we have the ability to invest in those franchises and grow those franchises over time.

只要您相信從中長期來看，這些趨勢將隨著我們的資本生成而持續下去，我們就有能力投資這些特許經營權並隨著時間的推移發展這些特許經營權。

And we continue to see attractive return opportunities to do that.

我們繼續看到有吸引力的回報機會來做到這一點。

How the regulators respond to that over time, I really think is a separate question.

我認為隨著時間的推移，監管機構如何應對這一問題確實是一個單獨的問題。

And we'll continue to be actively engaged as we've said to you, we are to ensure that we can manage that appropriately.

我們將繼續積極參與，正如我們對你們所說的那樣，我們將確保我們能夠妥善管理這個問題。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

This one will be a short follow-up.

這將是一個簡短的後續行動。

With HPI was weak, but that will happen on any given quarter.

HPI 很弱，但這種情況在任何特定季度都會發生。

I think if you look over a long period of time, you've earned good returns on your historical principal investments.

我認為，如果你從長遠來看，你的歷史本金投資已經獲得了良好的回報。

But as that book shrinks, the $10.9 billion that's left, the $4 billion attributed to it, if I take a should I is it okay to take a historical ROE-ish on that capital to think about the lower revenue corresponding to the lower book going forward on HPI?

但隨著帳面縮減，剩下的109 億美元，歸因於它的40 億美元，如果我採取「應該」的話，我是否可以對該資本採取歷史ROE 左右，以考慮與較低帳面價值相對應的較低收入在 HPI 上轉發？

So Glenn, it's Denis.

格倫，是丹尼斯。

I guess what I would suggest you take a look at, we have obviously a commitment to reducing the balance of the historical principal investments.

我想我建議您看一下，我們顯然致力於減少歷史本金投資的餘額。

And as we continue to have success doing that, there will be less revenue associated with the positions that have now been moved off of the balance sheet, but you will still see revenue generation associated with some of the co-invest positions that we retain as a piece of driving our overall growth of our third-party fund management business.

隨著我們在這方面繼續取得成功，與現已從資產負債表中移出的頭寸相關的收入將會減少，但您仍然會看到與我們保留的一些共同投資頭寸相關的收入產生。三方基金管理業務整體成長的一部分。

As to guidance on future projected returns on that portfolio, I don't think I have a good answer as to exactly what future returns will be relative to prior returns.

至於該投資組合未來預計回報的指導，我認為我沒有一個很好的答案來說明未來回報相對於先前回報的具體情況。

But I would suggest to you that we have a very diversified portfolio of exposures and a long-standing track record of delivering good returns for our clients.

但我建議您，我們擁有非常多元化的投資組合，並且擁有為客戶提供良好回報的長期記錄。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll take our next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉 (Ebrahim Poonawala) 提出的下一個問題。

Good morning.

早安.

I just had a follow-up first on trading.

我剛剛對交易進行了跟進。

And maybe David would appreciate your perspective around when we read about nonbank trading venues, getting into fixed income markets, potentially sort of disrupting the business for the incumbents.

當我們讀到非銀行交易場所、進入固定收益市場、可能會擾亂現有企業的業務時，也許大衛會欣賞你的觀點。

Comment on that, if you could, in terms of other parallels to the equity business that we should draw?

如果可以的話，請評論一下我們應該畫出的與股權業務的其他相似之處？

And how much of a competitive threat are the non-bank/non-regulated entities especially given your comments around the regulatory backdrop and kind of the Basel game reproposal and the opaqueness around that?

非銀行/非監管實體有多大的競爭威脅，特別是考慮到您對監管背景、巴塞爾遊戲提案的類型以及相關的不透明性的評論？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Sure, Ebrahim.

當然，易卜拉欣。

And I appreciate the question.

我很欣賞這個問題。

And this gets a lot of attention particularly in the press.

這引起了很多關注，尤其是媒體的關注。

But I think there are a couple of things when you stand back that are important to think about.

但我認為，當你退後一步時，有幾件事值得思考。

And look, the equities journey is a relatively good journey.

看起來，股票之旅是個相對較好的旅程。

There's been a lot of first of all, there's lots of competition in all these businesses.

首先，所有這些行業都存在著許多競爭。

There's always been competition, but there are very few platforms that offer the leading capital allocators and asset managers in the world, the scale and the breadth across all the services that they need in an integrated basis.

競爭一直存在，但很少有平台能夠在綜合基礎上提供全球領先的資本配置者和資產管理公司、其所需的所有服務的規模和廣度。

And that's very, very important to those clients when you go out and you talk to those clients.

當你出去與這些客戶交談時，這對這些客戶來說非常非常重要。

There can always be competition, and there always will be competition.

競爭永遠存在，競爭也永遠存在。

I'd just highlight, our equity business is as large and as scaled and as profitable as ever, even though over the last 25 years, there's been enormous competition in the equity business.

我想強調的是，我們的股權業務一如既往地龐大、規模化和盈利，儘管在過去 25 年裡，股權業務競爭非常激烈。

There's been digitization, there’s been change.

數位化發生了，改變也發生了。

There are now a handful, and by a handful, I'd say, less than handful.

現在已經有少數了，而且我想說，只有少數，少於少數。

They are now one or two players that are trying to compete in some of the credit spaces, et cetera.

他們現在是一兩個試圖在某些信用空間等領域競爭的參與者。

And will they compete and will they win business, of course, they’ll win business.

他們是否會競爭並贏得業務，當然，他們會贏得業務。

But these are big, big markets.

但這些都是非常非常大的市場。

We offer scaled solutions that are integrated for our clients, and we continue to be enormous liquidity provider, financier of those clients, which, by the way, is very, very important to them for the way the overall ecosystem works.

我們為客戶提供整合的規模化解決方案，並且我們仍然是這些客戶的巨大流動性提供者和融資者，順便說一句，這對於他們整個生態系統的運作方式非常非常重要。

So while these businesses always will be competitive and they continue to be competitive, again, we feel very good about the way our franchise is positioned to continue to be a leading player for our clients in these spaces.

因此，雖然這些企業始終具有競爭力，並將繼續具有競爭力，但我們對我們的特許經營權定位為繼續成為這些領域客戶的領先企業的方式感到非常滿意。

Understood.

明白了。

And just a follow-up on back to ROE and conversations with investors around.

這只是股本回報率以及與周遭投資者對話的後續行動。

You have done a good job over the last year or two, performance has been strong.

過去一兩年你做得很好，表現也很強勁。

Stocks reflected that.

股票反映了這一點。

As we think about the journey here from a 12%, 13% ROE to something that's maybe 15% plus, what are the building blocks?

當我們思考從 12%、13% 的 ROE 到 15% 以上的過程時，建構模組是什麼？

One could argue that the market backdrop, not the best, but not the worst.

有人可能會說，目前的市場背景，不是最好的，但也不是最糟的。

What needs to happen for Goldman to get to a point where we are registering a 15%-type ROE on a more recurring basis?

高盛需要做什麼才能達到我們經常性地註冊 15% 型 ROE 的地步？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, I appreciate the question.

嗯，我很欣賞這個問題。

And we've been very clear, we have a mid-teens target and that we believe we are on the journey of executing towards it.

我們非常明確，我們有一個十幾歲的目標，我們相信我們正在實現這一目標。

I think the first thing that has to happen is we need to continue to execute over a period of time to deliver on that.

我認為首先要做的就是我們需要在一段時間內繼續執行以實現這一目標。

And again, I think it's a pretty simple building block of a story.

再說一次，我認為這是一個非常簡單的故事構建塊。

First, we have a Global Banking and Markets business, and you can go look at the performance over the last five years of that business and the returns that, that business has delivered.

首先，我們有全球銀行和市場業務，您可以查看該業務過去五年的業績以及該業務所帶來的回報。

I would say that I still believe we have some tailwind dynamics around the investment banking activity.

我想說的是，我仍然相信我們在投資銀行活動方面有一些順風動力。

And I’d just highlight that while investment banking revenues have improved, and we've made progress, we are still not operating at 10-year averages in M&A and equity volumes.

我想強調的是，雖然投資銀行業務收入有所改善，而且我們也取得了進步，但我們的併購和股權交易量仍然沒有達到 10 年平均水平。

M&A volumes year-to-date are 13% below 10-year averages.

今年迄今的併購交易量比 10 年平均值低 13%。

Now that's better than the 25% below 10-year averages that they were for the first nine months of last year and equity volumes at 27% below 10-year averages.

現在，這比去年前 9 個月的 10 年平均值低 25%，以及比 10 年平均值低 27% 的股票交易量要好。

Now that's better than the 34%, 35% that they were below 10-year averages for the first nine months last year.

現在，這比去年前 9 個月的 34%、35% 低於 10 年平均值要好。

But there's no reason why we're not going to get back to 10-year average, and that’s a tailwind, but you can look at the performance in banking and markets, and that's one building block in the foundation for mid-teens returns.

但我們沒有理由不回到 10 年平均水平，這是一種順風，但你可以看看銀行業和市場的表現，這是青少年發展的基礎之一回歸。

The second is our continued progress, which requires more time and more execution on our part around Asset and Wealth Management.

第二是我們的持續進步，這需要我們在資產和財富管理方面投入更多的時間和更多的執行力。

And while we've improved the margins, we still have work to do on the margins and also the returns, and we continue to be very focused.

雖然我們提高了利潤率，但我們在利潤率和回報方面仍有工作要做，而且我們仍然非常專注。

But we are confident over the course of the next few years that we can bring the returns of our Asset & Wealth Management franchise into the mid-teens.

但我們有信心在未來幾年內將資產和財富管理業務的回報率提高到十幾歲左右。

The next building block or the last building block is we continue to narrow our consumer footprint and the drag associated with the platform business, that will get to a point where it basically becomes negligible.

下一個組成部分或最後一個組成部分是我們繼續縮小我們的消費者足跡以及與平台業務相關的阻力，這將達到基本上可以忽略不計的程度。

It's getting closer to that.

離那越來越近了。

And so if you put those building blocks together, Global Banking and Markets, its actual performance with a little bit more of a tailwind, which obviously it benefits from continued progress on Asset Wealth Management, that is our business, and we should be able to deliver those returns.

因此，如果你把全球銀行和市場這些建構模組放在一起，它的實際表現會帶來更多的推動力，這顯然得益於資產財富管理的持續進步，這就是我們的業務，我們應該能夠交付這些回報。

We're focused on it.

我們專注於此。

We have more work to do, but that is the path, and I think it's pretty clear.

我們還有更多工作要做，但這就是道路，而且我認為它非常明確。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Christian Bolu with Autonomous Research.

克里斯蒂安·博盧（Christian Bolu）從事自主研究。

Morning.

早晨。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

I just have a question on the trading business and the competitive landscape.

我只是有一個關於貿易業務和競爭格局的問題。

How are you thinking about the maybe the broader competitive landscape with the with other banks.

您如何看待與其他銀行的更廣泛的競爭格局？

Your market share seemed to peak in 2022.

你們的市佔率似乎在 2022 年達到頂峰。

It's been a bit choppy since then as a market share.

從那時起，它的市佔率就有點波動。

Just curious, are you seeing signs of competitors coming back, increasing competition from anywhere?

只是好奇，您是否看到競爭對手捲土重來、來自任何地方的競爭加劇的跡象？

I'm just curious on your thoughts there.

我只是好奇你的想法。

When you have leading market shares in our Global Banking & Markets franchise, you bounce around at different levels based on short-term activity, but what I'd say is if you step back and you look over the last 5 years, we took a step function up in our market share broadly across the plot.

當您在我們的全球銀行和市場業務中擁有領先的市場份額時，您會根據短期活動在不同水平上反彈，但我想說的是，如果您退後一步，看看過去5 年，我們採取了全面提升我們的市場佔有率。

And so from quarter-to-quarter, you'll see variability.

因此，每個季度你都會看到變化。

But I still think those market shares are positioned in a leading position, and we're zealously focused on them.

但我仍然認為這些市場份額處於領先地位，我們熱衷於關注它們。

We're zealously focused on the top 150 clients, which obviously make a huge contribution in the markets business.

我們熱心關注排名前 150 位的客戶，這些客戶顯然對市場業務做出了巨大貢獻。

We're obviously always focused on our overall banking footprint and the opportunities there.

顯然，我們始終關注我們的整體銀行業務足跡和那裡的機會。

And obviously, in a better M&A environment where there's more large cap M&A, you do see some movement in our market shares.

顯然，在更好的併購環境中，有更多的大盤併購，你確實會看到我們的市場份額發生一些變化。

So that's a market share tailwind for us.

所以這對我們來說是市場佔有率的動力。

They've always been competitive business, Christian.

他們一直是競爭激烈的行業，克里斯蒂安。

Again, we think we're very well positioned with our clients and have deep trusting long-term relationships and through our one Goldman Sachs operating ethos, a history of delivering for them through the cycle.

再說一次，我們認為我們與客戶的關係非常好，並與客戶建立了深厚的信任關係，並透過我們高盛獨有的經營精神，在整個週期內為客戶提供服務的歷史。

There’s always going to be competition, but we like the way our business is positioned, and I don’t see anything that fundamentally changes that.

競爭總是存在，但我們喜歡我們的業務定位方式，而且我認為沒有任何事情可以從根本上改變這一點。

But I’ve operated in these businesses – we’ve operated in these businesses for a long time.

但我從事這些業務——我們已經從事這些業務很久了。

They’re always going to be competitive businesses.

它們始終是具有競爭力的企業。

Okay.

好的。

On Private Banking, just another set of very strong results there, I think revenue growth up 10%.

在私人銀行業務方面，這是另一組非常強勁的業績，我認為收入成長了 10%。

And if I'm doing my math correctly, organic flows are in the high single-digit range, which would put you, I think, best in class.

如果我的數學計算正確的話，有機流量處於較高的個位數範圍內，我認為這將使你成為班級中最好的。

So just remind us again like what's driving strength there?

那麼再次提醒我們，驅動力是什麼？

And then maybe any key initiatives for growth over the next couple of years that should help sustain this growth.

也許未來幾年的任何關鍵成長舉措都有助於維持這種成長。

Sure, I'll start.

當然，我會開始。

I don't know Denis might have something to add.

我不知道丹尼斯有什麼要補充的。

But at a high level, this is a strategic decision that we had this big ultra-high net worth platform, and we were underinvested in lending to those clients.

但從高水準來看，這是一個策略決策，我們擁有這個大型超高淨值平台，但我們在向這些客戶提供貸款方面投資不足。

And there's a lot of historical reasons for why that's the case, starting with the fact that 15 years ago, we weren’t a bank.

造成這種情況有許多歷史原因，首先是 15 年前我們還不是一家銀行。

And so we really didn't look at the world that way.

所以我們確實沒有那樣看待世界。

But lending into an ultra high net worth franchise is a very good business, and it's a very important part of the business.

但向超高淨值特許經營商提供貸款是一項非常好的業務，而且是該業務的一個非常重要的組成部分。

And we understand that we've learned and we've seen it through investment banking, and we've seen it through market that when you holistically look at the integration of services that you provide to your clients, including lending, you improve your market share position.

我們知道，我們已經透過投資銀行業務和市場看到了這一點：當您全面審視向客戶提供的服務（包括貸款）的整合時，您就可以改善您的市場分享立場。

So when you look at our wealth franchise versus other wealth franchises, we've been underpenetrated for lending to those wealth clients and we put in place resources, a leadership team, and a focused effort to increase that activity to these clients.

因此，當你比較我們的財富特許經營權與其他財富特許經營權時，我們在向這些財富客戶提供貸款方面的滲透率還不夠，我們投入了資源、領導團隊並集中精力來增加對這些客戶的貸款活動。

While we've moved the needle, we're still underweighted versus other competitors like JPMorgan, and I would expect that we have a relatively good growth trajectory to continue to invest in that capability for our client set.

雖然我們已經取得了進展，但與摩根大通等其他競爭對手相比，我們的權重仍然偏低，我預計我們將擁有相對良好的成長軌跡，繼續為我們的客戶群投資於這種能力。

And Denis I don't know if there's anything you want to add on that.

丹尼斯，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

The only thing I'd amplify, which I think we've mentioned before, we feel like we've run this play before.

我唯一要強調的一點是，我想我們之前已經提到過，我們感覺我們以前已經演過這部劇了。

So we worked on a strategy to holistically cover clients in banking by integrating lending as part of the holistic suite of services we provided them and improved our market share position with those clients.

因此，我們制定了一項策略，透過將貸款整合為我們為客戶提供的整體服務的一部分，全面覆蓋銀行業客戶，並提高了我們在這些客戶中的市場份額地位。

We've implemented the same thing across the GBM public businesses of FICC and equities.

我們在 FICC 和股票的 GBM 公共業務中實施了同樣的做法。

We stand underpenetrated relative to peers today, and we believe that by taking the same holistic approach to the clients in the wealth business that we can improve our market shares and the nature of our relationship with those clients.

與當今的同行相比，我們的滲透率還不夠，我們相信，透過對財富業務的客戶採取同樣的整體方法，我們可以提高我們的市場份額以及我們與這些客戶的關係的性質。

As David said, we are allocating incremental resources, more specialist capabilities and giving our advisers the confidence to offer a competitive product to their clients to improve the overall relationship they have with their clients.

正如大衛所說，我們正在分配增量資源、更專業的能力，並讓我們的顧問有信心向客戶提供有競爭力的產品，以改善他們與客戶的整體關係。

Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

富國銀行證券公司的麥克·梅奧。

The first question relates to why do you still have platform solution as a business line?

第一個問題是為什麼你們仍然有平台解決方案作為業務線？

And what's happening with the Apple Card?

Apple Card 發生了什麼事？

And do you plan to exit that and take charges for that?

你打算退出並為此承擔費用嗎？

And kind of what's going on with that?

這是怎麼回事？

Again, two-third of the firm's global banking & market, one-third is wealth and asset management, and then you have this kind of extra business there.

同樣，該公司全球銀行和市場的三分之二，三分之一是財富和資產管理，然後你在那裡就有這種額外的業務。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

I mean I know there's a lot of focus on that.

我的意思是我知道人們對此有很多關注。

I think we've been pretty clear in our messaging that we are continuing to narrow our consumer footprint.

我認為我們在資訊中已經非常明確地表明我們正在繼續縮小我們的消費者足跡。

I don't have a lot more to say about where we are with Apple Card other than we're running it and improving it.

除了我們正在運行和改進 Apple Card 之外，我對 Apple Card 的進展沒有太多可說的。

And that's really all that I have to say.

這就是我要說的全部。

But I think the direction of travel at this point is pretty clear.

但我認為目前的發展方向已經非常明確了。

Well, back to the core business then, you said M&A is still 13% below 10-year averages.

好吧，回到核心業務，您說併購仍比 10 年平均值低 13%。

To what degree are 10-year averages less relevant because of the sponsor activity.

由於發起人的活動，10 年平均值的相關性降低到什麼程度？

You guys have said it seems like everyone has a different number, whether it's $1 trillion or $3 trillion of dry powder out there by sponsors that are ready, willing and able to pursue acquisitions.

你們說過，似乎每個人都有不同的數字，無論是準備好、願意並且有能力進行收購的贊助商提供的 1 兆美元還是 3 兆美元的乾粉。

And I don't think you've ever had that level of dry powder before.

我認為您以前從未接觸過這種程度的乾粉。

So could this be an M&A super cycle because all that money gets put to work?

那麼，這是否會成為一個併購超級週期，因為所有資金都投入使用了呢？

And if so, how would you change that 10-year average to adjust for that?

如果是這樣，您將如何改變 10 年平均值來進行調整？

I mean, one, I think there are long-term secular trends around M&A and market cap, which, by the way, are also meaningfully below trend I think that's more driven by the current regulatory environment and the fact that there has not been a lot of large-cap M&A with the market cap expansion, especially around Tech, that might be permanent.

我的意思是，第一，我認為圍繞併購和市值存在長期長期趨勢，順便說一句，這些趨勢也明顯低於趨勢，我認為這更多是由當前的監管環境以及尚未出現的事實所驅動的。

It might not, but my guess is that will ebb and flow from time to time.

可能不會，但我的猜測是它會不時地潮起潮落。

But your sponsor point, Mike, is a very, very good point.

但麥克，你的贊助商觀點是非常非常好的觀點。

And the bottom line is the sponsors have been slower to turn on than I would have expected, but they will turn on.

最重要的是，贊助商的熱情比我預期的要慢，但他們會熱情的。

By the way, if that all that dry powder is deployed okay, M&A volumes versus the 10-year averages will go up.

順便說一句，如果所有乾火藥部署得當，併購數量相對於 10 年平均值將會上升。

But by the way, if we were sitting here 5 years ago, 10-year average was lower five years ago than it is today because the 10-year average is definitely correlated to market cap growth and economic growth.

但順便說一句，如果我們 5 年前坐在這裡，五年前的 10 年平均值會低於今天，因為 10 年平均值肯定與市值成長和經濟成長有關。

So I do think we'll operate at 10-year averages.

所以我確實認為我們將按照 10 年平均值運作。

I do think over time, by the end of the decade, the 10-year average will actually be higher than it's been with the historical lens.

我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，到本世紀末，十年平均值實際上會高於歷史水平。

But I will say to your sponsor point, slower to deploy than we would have expected, but we see more activity.

但我要對你們的贊助商說，部署速度比我們預期的要慢，但我們看到了更多的活動。

Some of that is indicative of the growth in our backlog that we've highlighted.

其中一些表明我們強調了積壓的增長。

And I do think that sponsor activity will continue to accelerate over the next 6, 12, 24 months.

我確實認為贊助商活動將在未來 6、12、24 個月內繼續加速。

Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的貝特西‧格拉塞克 (Betsy Graseck)。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Okay, super.

好吧，超級。

Yes, I totally agree.

是的，我完全同意。

We've been calling for capital markets rebound.

我們一直呼籲資本市場反彈。

It's really nice to see it coming through.

很高興看到它的實現。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

One on the expanding loan offerings that you mentioned earlier.

一是關於您之前提到的擴大貸款產品。

And I know we touched on it briefly in the Q&A.

我知道我們在問答中簡短地談到了這一點。

Just a few questions ago.

剛才問了幾個問題。

What I wanted to make sure I understood is, when you think about the RWA impact of reducing the private investments that you're doing, reducing that portfolio and then increasing the expanded loan offerings into Asset & Wealth Management.

我想確保我理解的是，當你考慮減少正在進行的私人投資、減少投資組合，然後增加資產和財富管理領域的擴大貸款供應時，風險加權資產的影響。

Do you see that as RWA neutral?

您認為 RWA 是中立的嗎？

Is the density of the loan offerings higher or lower than the investment, the private equity investments that you've got?

貸款提供的密度是高於還是低於您所擁有的私募股權投資的投資密度？

Sure, Betsy.

當然，貝特西。

Very good question.

非常好的問題。

So generally speaking, the density of the HPI that we have left to sell down is high and the density of private wealth loans is low.

所以整體來說，我們留下來拋售的HPI密度較高，而私人財富貸款的密度較低。

So migrating RWA towards the lending businesses improves the durability, the predictability, the recurring nature of it.

因此，將 RWA 遷移到貸款業務可以提高其持久性、可預測性和經常性。

It brings forth the holistic access to the clients, all their wealth management needs and it is more capital efficient for us.

它為我們提供了全面接觸客戶、滿足他們所有財富管理需求的機會，並且對我們來說更具資本效率。

So that is an underpinning component of the strategy as well.

因此，這也是該策略的基礎組成部分。

Okay, super.

好吧，超級。

Right, because it's collateralized heavily, right?

是的，因為它有大量抵押，對嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Then the other question I had was just on the GM credit card.

然後我的另一個問題是關於通用汽車信用卡的。

I wanted to make sure I understood this.

我想確保我理解這一點。

So as far as I can tell, it's signed but not closed yet.

據我所知，它已經簽署但尚未結束。

So can you give us a sense as to when you think it's going to close?

那麼您能否告訴我們您認為它何時會關閉？

And are there any trailers in your P&L when it does close, for example, anything we should be aware of with regard to either payments on the contract to GM?

當交易結束時，您的損益表中是否有任何預告片，例如，關於向通用汽車支付的合約付款，我們應該注意什麼？

Or is there like a loss cap that you have to be involved in?

或者是否存在您必須參與的損失上限？

I'm just trying to make sure I understand how to model this as we go forward.

我只是想確保我理解如何在我們前進的過程中對此進行建模。

Sure, Betsy.

當然，貝特西。

So in terms of timing, it's signed but not closed.

所以從時間上來說，它已經簽署但還沒結束。

There has to be a conversion to the new issuer and then ultimately a closing of the platform transfer.

必須轉換為新發行人，然後最終完成平台轉讓。

Expectations, we're targeting Q3 of 2025.

期望，我們的目標是 2025 年第三季。

So that's sort of timing from a modeling perspective.

從建模的角度來看，這就是時機。

And I guess what I would tell, we obviously have responsibility for operating the platform until that point in time.

我想我會說，我們顯然有責任在那之前運營該平台。

So we will continue to incur call it, the run rate operating losses associated with that business.

因此，我們將繼續產生與該業務相關的運行率營運損失。

As a guide, I'd point you to where we were in Q1 and Q2 of this year, something on the order of negative $50 million or $60 million per quarter, just to give you a sense for how that rolls forward from here until closing.

作為指導，我會向您指出我們今年第一季和第二季的情況，大約每季負 5000 萬美元或 6000 萬美元，只是為了讓您了解從這裡到結束的情況如何。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

接下來我們將與瑞銀一起前往布倫南·霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I wanted to follow up a little bit on the investment banking backlog commentary.

我想對投資銀行積壓的評論進行一些跟進。

I know you said that advisory drove a lot of the growth in the backlog.

我知道你說過，諮詢推動了積壓訂單的大量成長。

But we did see some sponsors recently come to the IPO market with some success.

但我們確實看到一些保薦人最近進入IPO市場並取得了一些成功。

And so curious about what you're seeing on the ECM and IPO side, particularly as we see early signs of sponsors reengaging with that distribution channel?

您對 ECM 和 IPO 方面所看到的情況非常好奇，特別是當我們看到贊助商重新參與該分銷管道的早期跡象時？

So thanks for the question, Brennan.

謝謝你的提問，布倫南。

I mean there's no question equity activity picked up.

我的意思是，毫無疑問，股市活動有所回升。

But as I highlighted a few moments ago, volumes are still running 25% below 10-year averages.

但正如我剛才強調的那樣，成交量仍比 10 年平均值低 25%。

And IPOs running even more significantly below 10-year averages.

IPO 的運行速度甚至明顯低於 10 年平均值。

I do think the sponsors, again, some of it is sponsor monetization.

我確實認為贊助商，其中一些是贊助商貨幣化。

And because sponsors have had their portfolios marked a little bit higher, they've been slow and they're kind of waiting for growth to bring up some of the values.

由於贊助商將他們的投資組合標記得更高一些，他們的行動一直很緩慢，他們在等待成長來帶來一些價值。

But I do see an acceleration of activity and I expect it to continue, and there's no fundamental reason why equity volumes ultimately shouldn't run at 10-year averages.

但我確實看到了活動的加速，我預計這種情況會持續下去，並且沒有根本原因說明股票交易量最終不應達到 10 年平均水平。

And if those averages will grow over time with the growth in market cap and a growth in the deployment of sponsor capital.

隨著市值的成長和贊助商資本部署的成長，這些平均值是否會隨著時間的推移而成長。

Great.

偉大的。

And then we've seen several partnerships and some innovation getting announced in the private credit world recently.

最近，我們看到私人信貸領域宣布了一些合作夥伴關係和一些創新。

And given your heritage in that business, how do you plan to approach and prosecute that opportunity?

鑑於您在該行業的傳統，您計劃如何抓住並抓住這個機會？

Sure.

當然。

We have a very broad and interesting credit platform that is integrated in a one GS way, to some degree, and a differentiated way than many of the people we compete with.

我們擁有一個非常廣泛且有趣的信貸平台，在某種程度上，該平台以一種 GS 方式進行集成，並且與我們的許多競爭對手相比，採用了一種差異化的方式。

We obviously, as a credit originator in our investment banking business are one of the leading credit originators.

顯然，身為投資銀行業務的信貸發起人，我們是領先的信貸發起人之一。

We’ve had a leading position in leveraged loans and high-yield debt for quite some time and a leading position with sponsors and the origination of that.

我們在槓桿貸款和高收益債務領域一直處於領先地位，並且在保薦人及其起源方面也處於領先地位。

We obviously, we originate and distribute.

顯然，我們創作並分發。

We also in our Asset & Management business, we are a leading player in private credit with $140 billion of private credit assets and growing and investing in that.

在我們的資產和管理業務中，我們也是私人信貸領域的領導企業，擁有 1,400 億美元的私人信貸資產，並且還在持續成長和投資中。

I think one of the things that's interesting when you look at the discussion and the integration of this around the street, there is plenty of capital that is interesting and deploying into private credit.

我認為，當你看到周圍的討論和整合時，有趣的事情之一是，有大量有趣的資本正在部署到私人信貸中。

The valuable part of the ecosystem is origination channels.

生態系中最有價值的部分是起源管道。

And there are obviously some private credit players that have interesting origination channels and platforms.

顯然，一些私人信貸參與者擁有有趣的發起管道和平台。

But I would say when you look across Goldman Sachs, our origination ecosystem across both our Global Banking & Markets business and also in our Asset & Wealth Management business, is unique and differentiated and something that I think will continue to differentiate the firm as we continue to lean into and grow our private credit platform.

但我想說，當你縱觀高盛時，我們在全球銀行和市場業務以及資產和財富管理業務中的創始生態系統是獨特且與眾不同的，我認為隨著我們繼續發展，這將繼續使公司脫穎而出。

Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究中心的史蒂文·丘巴克。

I wanted to spend some time just looking at or unpacking some of the self-help levers, recognizing that the business is still burdened by capital consumption from some of the noncore assets, whether it's in consumer or equity investments.

我想花一些時間來研究或解開一些自助槓桿，並認識到企業仍然承受著一些非核心資產的資本消耗的負擔，無論是消費者資產還是股權投資。

Denis, I believe in your prepared remarks, you alluded to an 80 bps drag on ROE from consumer.

丹尼斯，我相信在您準備好的演講中，您提到了消費者對 ROE 的拖累 80 個基點。

And I was hoping you could maybe provide a more holistic picture, just frame the drag on returns from various noncore activities today.

我希望你能提供一個更全面的情況，只說明當今各種非核心活動對回報的拖累。

And are there any remaining self-help levers that could bolster returns which may still be on the come?

是否還有任何剩餘的自助槓桿可以提高可能仍會出現的回報？

Sure.

當然。

I think the 80 basis point drag is the simplest way to understand the impact of those items, which we have identified as the selected items, which we have announced we are in the process of disposing of.

我認為 80 個基點的拖累是了解這些項目影響的最簡單方法，我們已將其確定為選定項目，我們已宣布正在處理這些項目。

Obviously, if we complete if we were to completely exit all consumer-related activities, there would be more associated capital relief potential.

顯然，如果我們完全退出所有與消費者相關的活動，將會有更多相關的資本減免潛力。

And we can obviously across the AWM franchise move down the vast majority of the HPI exposure, that currently has a little over $4 billion of attributed equity associated with it.

顯然，我們可以在 AWM 特許經營權中降低絕大多數 HPI 風險，目前與之相關的歸屬權益略高於 40 億美元。

So you have the dynamic of sort of reducing the P&L components.

因此，您可以動態地減少損益成分。

And then over time, we will remove the capital.

然後隨著時間的推移，我們將移除首都。

So removing the capital associated with HPI and then ultimately moving the capital associated with the consumer businesses that will provide incremental tailwinds to us over time.

因此，取消與 HPI 相關的資本，然後最終轉移與消費者業務相關的資本，隨著時間的推移，這將為我們提供增量的推動力。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And just for a follow-up on buybacks.

只是為了跟進回購。

Just stock is currently trading at 1.6 times book.

Just 股票目前的交易價格是帳面價值的 1.6 倍。

It does suggest some expectation in the market for returns to get closer to mid-teens ROE target.

這確實表明市場預期回報率將接近十幾歲左右的股本回報率目標。

Just wanted to hear your perspective on price sensitivity to buy back at current valuation levels.

只是想聽聽您對以當前估值水準回購的價格敏感度的看法。

And in anticipation, at least of David's response, citing prioritization of organic growth where do you see the most attractive opportunities to deploy capital organically today?

至少大衛的回應是預期的，他引用了有機成長的優先順序，您認為當今有機部署資本的最有吸引力的機會在哪裡？

Our capital deployment philosophy unchanged.

我們的資本配置理念不變。

I think if you take some of our comments in the prepared remarks about the outlook that we have, some of the engagement we're seeing from clients, potential opportunities for the capital markets reopening to take the next step forward and see capital committed acquisition financing, that is an activity that's very core to Goldman Sachs.

我認為，如果您在準備好的評論中了解我們對前景的一些評論，我們從客戶那裡看到的一些參與，資本市場重新開放的潛在機會，以採取下一步行動並看到資本承諾收購融資，這是高盛的核心活動。

We have a historical leading market share position there given knitting up our advisory franchise and our underwriting capabilities.

鑑於我們的諮詢特許經營權和承保能力，我們在該地區擁有歷史領先的市場份額地位。

And so that would be an attractive place for us to deploy incremental capital.

因此，這對於我們部署增量資本來說將是一個有吸引力的地方。

Continuing to drive the recurring revenue streams across wealth and the financing business and public is an attractive place to deploy capital.

繼續推動財富、融資業務和公眾的經常性收入流是配置資本的一個有吸引力的地方。

And that is our priority as we sit here today with our 90 basis point buffer heading into the fourth quarter.

這是我們今天坐在這裡的首要任務，我們的 90 個基點緩衝即將進入第四季。

But we also remain very committed, as we've said before, to sustainably growing our dividend.

但正如我們之前所說，我們仍然非常致力於可持續地增加股息。

That's a core part of our philosophy.

這是我們理念的核心部分。

And we do believe it's important to also continue to return capital to shareholders.

我們確實認為繼續向股東返還資本也很重要。

We do have a higher valuation.

我們確實有更高的估值。

We do think about that.

我們確實考慮過這一點。

We are sensitive to that, but I don't believe that our current valuation is such that we shouldn't be also returning capital to shareholders.

我們對此很敏感，但我認為我們目前的估值不應該讓我們不應該向股東返還資本。

Devin Ryan with Citizens JMP.

Devin Ryan 與 Citizens JMP。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Good morning, David and Denis.

早安，大衛和丹尼斯。

Question on just the alternative asset management fundraising and looking at the fee rates.

關於另類資產管理融資和費用率的問題。

So the largest alt bucket, corporate equity, has seen a declining fee rate since the end of 2022.

因此，自 2022 年底以來，最大的另類資產——企業股權——的費用率一直在下降。

I know there were some legacy funds in there that are sun-setting, but it would just be great to get an update on the outlook for the fee rates, just given all that fundraising that you've done in alts in recent years.

我知道那裡有一些遺留基金已經落日，但考慮到您近年來在另類投資領域所做的所有籌款，如果能夠了解費率前景的最新情況那就太好了。

And just when we should think about the inflection occurring as recently raised AUM moves into fee earnings and then how we should think about kind of the right steady state because it would seem like there’s a lot of upside there.

正當我們應該考慮最近增加的管理規模進入費用收入時發生的轉折點時，我們應該如何考慮正確的穩定狀態，因為看起來有很多上升空間。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Appreciate the question.

感謝這個問題。

Obviously, we put that disclosure out there, so you can track it and follow it over time.

顯然，我們將這一披露公開，以便您可以追蹤它並隨著時間的推移關注它。

It's obviously very much mix dependent in terms of the nature of the particular alts assets that are coming in.

顯然，就即將到來的特定替代資產的性質而言，這在很大程度上取決於混合情況。

One thing which is a strategic initiative that is very valuable to growth of our asset management franchise, and important to a lot of our investment banking and other clients are the services we provide to our OCIO offerings.

我們為 OCIO 產品提供的服務是一項策略性舉措，對我們資產管理業務的成長非常有價值，對我們的許多投資銀行和其他客戶也很重要。

But in certain of those portfolios, we do bring onboard some Alts assets and the effective fee associated with that is lower than call it a Goldman Sachs Fund generated alternative fee.

但在某些投資組合中，我們確實引入了一些另類資產，而與之相關的有效費用低於高盛基金產生的另類費用。

So we have a multichannel asset accumulation strategy that we're deploying to grow the overall scale and scope of that business.

因此，我們正在部署多通路資產累積策略，以擴大該業務的整體規模和範圍。

And for us, having scale is an important contributor, ultimately, to driving margins, efficiencies and returns in the business, but not each of the channels comes with the same exact effective fee.

對我們來說，規模是最終推動業務利潤、效率和回報的重要因素，但並非每個管道都有完全相同的有效成本。

So you may see some slight variation in that over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，您可能會看到一些細微的變化。

Okay.

好的。

And then just a follow-up on the trading business, obviously, results have been incredibly resilient and the firm is gaining market share.

然後是貿易業務的後續行動，顯然，業績具有令人難以置信的彈性，該公司正在獲得市場份額。

So, wanted to get a little bit of a flavor, if you can, just around how much of trading revenue today is driven by your electronic trading capabilities and how that's evolved over the past handful of years.

因此，如果可以的話，我想了解今天的交易收入有多少是由您的電子交易能力驅動的，以及它在過去幾年中是如何發展的。

I know there's been a lot of investment there, and you guys have some pretty differentiated offering.

我知道那裡有很多投資，而且你們提供了一些非常差異化的產品。

So I just wanted to get a little bit of sense of that.

所以我只是想對此有一點了解。

And then how that plays into the story of market share from here just as you become more relevant with clients.

然後，當您與客戶變得更加相關時，這將如何影響市場份額的故事。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I mean when you look at equity and then frankly, even FICC trading activities, the strategy facing clients is multichannel again.

我的意思是，當你看股票時，坦白說，即使是 FICC 交易活動，客戶面臨的策略也是多通路的。

So we have voice.

所以我們有發言權。

We have high-touch voice, and we have electronic, and increasingly, we're finding ways to integrate those activities to optimize ultimately the way that we can make markets and deliver solutions for clients.

我們有高接觸性的聲音，我們有電子技術，而且我們越來越多地尋找整合這些活動的方法，以最終優化我們開拓市場和為客戶提供解決方案的方式。

So we have both, call it, run rate, more plain vanilla intermediation activities and then we have the capacity to either take on board more interesting structure or complicated trades with or without deployment of risk capital in the process. and the approach is to have a distributed set of channels across the public side trading businesses.

因此，我們兩者都有，稱之為運行率，更普通的中介活動，然後我們有能力接受更有趣的結構或複雜的交易，無論在此過程中部署或不部署風險資本。其方法是在公共交易業務中建立一套分散式管道。

Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

丹·範農和杰弗里斯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Denis, I want to come back to a comment you made about reiterating the $1 billion goal for performance fees.

丹尼斯，我想回到您關於重申 10 億美元績效費目標的評論。

And I think you said $4 billion of unrecognized gains.

我想你說的是 40 億美元的未確認收益。

You're obviously run rating well below that here year-to-date.

顯然，今年迄今為止，您的評級遠低於此處的評級。

Can you talk about the time period you think to get to that $1 billion?

您能談談您認為達到 10 億美元的時間段嗎？

And is there seasonality with certain maybe liquid products that are typically more recognized in the fourth quarter?

某些通常在第四季度更受認可的流動產品是否存在季節性？

Or is this something that should be more pro rata?

或者這是否應該更按比例進行？

So the $4 billion is versus the stock of outstanding funds that are in process of deploying, completing harvesting and migrating their way to the end to their investment cycle.

因此，這 40 億美元是與正在部署、完成收穫和遷移直至投資週期結束的未償資金存量相對應的。

Given a lot of the other commentary that we've been discussing about level of activity, strategically, openness of capital markets, in particular, equity capital markets, sponsor monetization activity, et cetera, as it relates to our portfolio where we own some balance sheet investments, and we own investments in funds, we have not had as much monetization in line with where the market has been generally.

鑑於我們一直在討論的許多其他評論，包括資本市場的活動水平、戰略開放程度，特別是股權資本市場、贊助商貨幣化活動等，因為它與我們擁有一定餘額的投資組合有關儘管我們擁有單張投資和基金投資，但我們的貨幣化程度與市場整體水準不符。

So as activity improves, we will also see more monetization and we expect that over the next several years, we will move towards those medium-term targets of a run rate, $1 billion worth of incentive fees.

因此，隨著活動的改善，我們也將看到更多的貨幣化，我們預計在未來幾年中，我們將朝著運行率、價值 10 億美元的激勵費用的中期目標邁進。

But I can't tell you exactly the rates that comes in, that will be dependent on how ultimately these funds harvest and when we're in a position to ultimately pay carry to investors and recognize our own incentive fees.

但我無法告訴你確切的利率，這將取決於這些資金最終如何收穫，以及我們何時能夠最終向投資者支付利差並確認我們自己的激勵費用。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just a follow-up on wealth management, understanding the strategy of growing lending.

然後是財富管理的後續行動，了解增加貸款的策略。

But can you talk about the growth overall of the adviser base and how you're thinking about that over the next kind of one to two years in terms of net recruiting, hires and ultimately, investment in that business beyond just diversifying the revenue streams?

但您能否談談顧問基礎的整體成長，以及您如何看待未來一到兩年在淨招聘、僱用以及最終對該業務的投資（不僅僅是收入來源多元化）方面的情況？

Sure.

當然。

So I think we have made a strategic decision that the investment in advisers needs to be a strategic and sustained investment program.

所以我認為我們已經做出了一個策略決策，就是對顧問的投資需求是一個策略性的、持續的投資計畫。

So rather than having it a sort of ebb and flow across different market environments or based on what the firm's perceived capacity to invest may or may not have been at different years in the past.

因此，它不是在不同的市場環境中出現某種潮起潮落，也不是基於公司在過去不同年份的投資能力的感知。

I think part of the strategy of investing in what is a really outstanding business at Goldman Sachs, where we're the premier ultra-high net worth firm, we are making a sustained commitment to invest in advisers over multiple years.

我認為，高盛是首屈一指的超高淨值公司，投資真正傑出的業務的策略的一部分是，我們持續承諾在多年內投資顧問。

And so that is sort of a foundational underpinning of how we're looking to invest in that business.

因此，這是我們如何投資該業務的基礎。

And when David makes comments about our ability to drive growth and returns across AWM and that we are focused not just on margins and returns [across AWM and that we are focused not just on margins and returns] (added by company after the call), but investing to grow, one of the places that we think is an attractive place to invest and grow is actually in the adviser footprint.

當 David 評論我們推動 AWM 成長和回報的能力，並且我們不僅僅關注利潤和回報 [整個 AWM，我們不僅關注利潤和回報]（由公司在電話會議後添加），但投資是為了成長，我們認為有吸引力的投資和成長領域之一實際上是顧問的足跡。

Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪。

David.

大衛.

Can you guys share with us, Goldman is in a unique position, I think, to be able to share with investors the benefits of private credit.

你們能否與我們分享一下，我認為高盛處於獨特的地位，能夠與投資者分享私人信貸的好處。

I think, David, you mentioned you have $140 billion in private credit assets.

David，我想你提到你擁有 1400 億美元的私人信貸資產。

And when you see your clients choosing a channel to access monies from you, whether it's private credit or just lending.

當您看到您的客戶選擇從您那裡獲取資金的管道時，無論是私人信貸還是藉貸。

Can you share with us the advantages that you see through private credit or the regular loan portfolio that your customers may benefit from?

您能否與我們分享您認為您的客戶可以從私人信貸或常規貸款組合中受益的優勢？

So I appreciate the question, Gerard.

所以我很欣賞你的問題，傑拉德。

I think one of the things that's interesting about this is this gets framed in very binary ways.

我認為有趣的事情之一是它以非常二元的方式構建。

And obviously, private credit is a broad term and it refers to a lot of things.

顯然，私人信貸是一個廣泛的術語，它涉及很多東西。

It certainly refers to a lot of investment-grade lending, a lot of which is on insurance company balance sheets.

它當然指的是大量投資等級貸款，其中許多都在保險公司的資產負債表上。

It can refer to direct lending in the below investment-grade business, which, by the way, is a component of our syndication activity and origination activity, particularly with sponsors.

它可以指以下投資級業務的直接貸款，順便說一下，這是我們的銀團活動和發起活動的組成部分，特別是與贊助商的活動。

It can be direct lending for small and medium-sized enterprises.

可以對中小企業進行直接貸款。

So there's a wide range of things.

所以有很多事情。

When I listened to your question, what I pull away is you're asking in particular about leveraged finance activity and how our clients choose channels in terms of where to get capital.

當我聽到你的問題時，我注意到你特別詢問了槓桿金融活動以及我們的客戶如何選擇資金的管道。

And I'd say they don't go in with a bias, they're actually looking for a capital structure that works for their particular solution.

我想說他們不會帶著偏見，他們實際上正在尋找適合他們特定解決方案的資本結構。

And I think that one of the things that positions us well is we are a unique player that we have an ability to either syndicate and underwrite and distribute.

我認為，我們處於有利地位的原因之一是我們是一個獨特的參與者，我們有能力進行聯合、承銷和分銷。

We have an ability to direct lend.

我們有能力直接貸款。

We have an ability to show clients alternatives that can best meet their needs and their needs might be different in different transactional situations.

我們有能力向客戶展示最能滿足他們需求的替代方案，並且他們的需求在不同的交易情況下可能會有所不同。

So we like our positioning there.

所以我們喜歡我們在那裡的定位。

I do say that I believe from a secular perspective, there will be continued growth in private credit, particularly in the leveraged finance space.

我確實說過，我相信從長期角度來看，私人信貸將會持續成長，特別是在槓桿融資領域。

And so we're looking to capture that, but it's more complicated.

所以我們希望抓住這一點，但它更加複雜。

There are different channels, there's different origination efforts than sometimes the way this is all portrayed.

有不同的管道，有不同的發起努力，有時這一切都是描繪的方式。

But we feel like we're well positioned across the spectrum to be a significant participant in this space.

但我們覺得我們在各個領域都處於有利位置，可以成為這個領域的重要參與者。

And David, just a quick follow-up on that.

大衛，我只是對此進行快速跟進。

That was very thorough.

那是非常徹底的。

Who do you find is your primary competitors?

您認為誰是您的主要競爭對手？

Again, you're in a unique position, I think, to be able to benefit from this.

我認為，您再次處於一個獨特的位置，能夠從中受益。

Who do you bump into the most?

你最常碰見誰？

Well, it depends what you're doing.

嗯，這取決於你在做什麼。

So it goes back to exactly what I said it, it depends what you're doing.

所以這又回到了我所說的，這取決於你在做什麼。

If you're in the leverage finance market and you're looking at a syndicated capital structure and you're competing for that, you're going to bump into JPMorgan, for example.

例如，如果您身處槓桿融資市場，並且正在考慮銀團資本結構，並且正在為此競爭，那麼您將會遇到摩根大通。

If on the other hand, you're looking at direct lenders, then you're going to bump into a bunch of people that play a leading role in that space, which can include people like HPS or Ares or other direct platforms.

另一方面，如果您正在尋找直接貸款人，那麼您將遇到一群在該領域發揮主導作用的人，其中可能包括 HPS 或 Ares 或其他直接平台等人。

If you're looking at investment grade, insurance company balance sheet, you might run into Apollo.

如果您正在查看投資等級、保險公司的資產負債表，您可能會遇到阿波羅。

I mean it really depends on who the client is, what their need is and what the activity is.

我的意思是，這實際上取決於客戶是誰、他們的需求是什麼以及活動是什麼。

And it's actually quite a broad and complicated space.

它實際上是一個相當廣闊和複雜的空間。

And the only thing I'd add, Gerard, because if you just think about it, I think David has laid this out really well.

我唯一要補充的是，傑拉德，因為如果你仔細想想，我認為大衛已經把這一點闡述得非常好。

If you think about where Goldman Sachs is positioned against this opportunity set.

如果你想想高盛在這個機會集上的定位。

We have capacity to lend to alternative clients, for example, who are deploying into the private credit space.

例如，我們有能力向其他客戶提供貸款，這些客戶正在進入私人信貸領域。

We have the capacity to underwrite and distribute different types of investment-grade and noninvestment-grade capital structures and we have the capacity to offer investment opportunities to clients who want to get exposure to the asset class.

我們有能力承銷和分銷不同類型的投資等級和非投資等級資本結構，並且我們有能力為想要接觸該資產類別的客戶提供投資機會。

And while we compete with all of those different parties that David enumerated, I'm hard-pressed to find many people that have the breadth of exposure to each aspect of this ecosystem relative to us.

雖然我們與大衛列舉的所有不同各方競爭，但我很難找到比我們更廣泛地接觸這個生態系統各個方面的人。

So we really like our position in terms of the secular trends there and how we can support clients in each and every aspect of the continuum.

因此，我們非常喜歡我們在長期趨勢方面的立場，以及我們如何在連續體的各個方面為客戶提供支援。

Saul Martinez with HSBC.

匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I wanted to ask about the margin trajectory in Asset & Wealth Management.

我想問一下資產和財富管理的保證金軌跡。

Year-to-date, you're at you got a 24% pretax margin.

今年迄今為止，您的稅前利潤率為 24%。

You've already essentially reached the mid-20s medium-term target.

您基本上已經達到了 20 多歲的中期目標。

I know you've talked about that margin expanding beyond mid-20s.

我知道您曾經談到 20 多歲之後利潤率會擴大。

But how do we think about where it can ultimately land in the time horizon around it?

但我們如何思考它最終會在它周圍的時間範圍內降落在哪裡？

Obviously, you're growing your all business, you have $4 billion of unrecognized incentive fees.

顯然，您正在發展您的所有業務，您有 40 億美元的未確認獎勵費用。

You talked about the private banking and lending platform.

您談到了私人銀行和借貸平台。

Just can you get to a pretax margin of above 30% like your peers?

你能像同行一樣獲得30%以上的稅前利潤嗎？

And again, how do we think about the glide path from here and the time horizon around that?

再說一次，我們如何考慮從這裡開始的下滑路徑以及周圍的時間範圍？

Sure.

當然。

Thank you, Saul.

謝謝你，索爾。

So obviously, we've just arrived at our mid-20s target.

顯然，我們剛剛達到了 20 多歲的目標。

I think it's important that we consolidate our position there.

我認為鞏固我們在那裡的地位很重要。

We think there are plenty of opportunities to continue to drive that margin higher as we scale top line, as we improve the mix of alternatives across our platform, and we look to drive other operating efficiencies across the business segment.

我們認為，隨著我們擴大營收規模、改善整個平台的替代方案組合，以及我們希望提高整個業務部門的其他營運效率，有很多機會繼續提高利潤率。

There are plenty of competitors that have margins as you cite, that are 30% or higher.

正如您所說，有很多競爭對手的利潤率為 30% 或更高。

So our commitment is to continue to improve the margins.

因此，我們的承諾是繼續提高利潤率。

But we're also thinking increasingly about opportunities we have to scale and create value for the long term.

但我們也越來越多地思考我們必須擴大規模並創造長期價值的機會。

So we are going to try and find the balance between incremental margin improvement and making the right investment decisions that unlock long-term value in this segment.

因此，我們將嘗試在增量利潤改善和做出正確的投資決策之間找到平衡，以釋放該領域的長期價值。

But for the time being, we think that both can be achieved.

但就目前而言，我們認為兩者都是可以實現的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe if I could follow up on capital and just how you're thinking I know you talked about your capital strategy a bit.

然後也許我可以跟進一下資本以及你的想法，我知道你談到了你的資本策略。

But how are you thinking about just capital allocation and buybacks given the uncertainty around Basel?

但考慮到巴塞爾的不確定性，您如何考慮資本配置和回購？

We have a proposal, we have the speech outlining the reproposal.

我們有一個提案，我們有概述該提案的演講。

We have an agency that seemingly one of the agencies, obviously, resisting seemingly the reproposal.

我們有一個機構，它似乎是這些機構之一，顯然，似乎抵制了這項重新提議。

We have an election that could play a big role in terms of influencing whatever outcome happens.

我們的選舉可能會在影響發生的任何結果方面發揮重要作用。

So just how are you thinking about your capital?

那麼您如何看待您的資本呢？

And why do you think a 90 basis point buffer is the right buffer given all that uncertainty?

考慮到所有這些不確定性，您為什麼認為 90 個基點緩衝是正確的緩衝？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Look, what I would say for the last period of quarters and years, we've been operating in an environment with a bunch of regulatory uncertainty.

聽著，我想說的是，在過去的幾個季度和幾年裡，我們一直在一個充滿監管不確定性的環境中運作。

There's also been operating uncertainty as well.

營運方面也存在不確定性。

I think the economic trajectory, outlook and client franchise is coming more into focus.

我認為經濟軌跡、前景和客戶群越來越受到關注。

Frankly, that presents opportunities.

坦白說，這提供了機會。

So we run a buffer so that we have pent-up capacity to support incoming client opportunities.

因此，我們運行了一個緩衝區，以便我們有被壓抑的能力來支持新客戶的機會。

But we also run the buffer given other uncertainties in the world, which include regulatory.

但考慮到世界上的其他不確定性（包括監管），我們也運行了緩衝。

As to when we will have the next bit of clarity and be able to interpret exactly what that means for our capital position, I couldn't tell you right now.

至於我們什麼時候才能得到進一步的澄清並能夠準確地解釋這對我們的資本狀況意味著什麼，我現在無法告訴你。

But we have a long history of making adjustments to our activities when we get that regulatory feedback.

但長期以來，當我們收到監管回饋時，我們都會對我們的活動進行調整。

From everything we know, there are generally time lines associated with those rules coming into effect.

據我們所知，這些規則的生效通常有一個時間表。

And we feel like this is the right place to run our capital to support the client franchise and be prepared for other unexpected developments, including regulatory.

我們認為這是經營我們資本以支持客戶特許經營並為其他意外發展（包括監管）做好準備的正確場所。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, there are no additional questions.

目前，沒有其他問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，高盛 2024 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。