高盛 (GS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Katie and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎大家參加高盛 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer.

我將代表高盛在電話會議開始時發表以下免責聲明。

The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of the Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures.

收益報告可以在高盛網站的投資者關係頁面上找到，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則衡量標準的資訊。

This audiocast is copyrighted material of the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced, or rebroadcast without consent.

此音訊廣播是高盛集團有限公司受版權保護的資料，未經同意不得複製、轉載或轉播。

This call is being recorded today, January 15, 2025.

本次通話錄音於今天（2025 年 1 月 15 日）進行。

I will now turn the call over to the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman.

我現在將把電話轉給董事長兼執行長大衛‧所羅門 (David Solomon)；和財務長丹尼斯·科爾曼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

所羅門先生，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。

Thank you all for joining us.

感謝大家加入我們。

Before I start prepared remarks, I'd like to take a moment to touch on the devastating fires that have spread across Los Angeles.

在開始準備好的發言之前，我想花點時間談談在洛杉磯蔓延的毀滅性火災。

Our thoughts are with the people of L.A., including our colleagues and clients.

我們與洛杉磯人民同在，包括我們的同事和客戶。

We joined everyone else in thanking the brave firefighters and first responders working tirelessly to protect that community.

我們與其他所有人一起感謝勇敢的消防員和急救人員為保護社區而不懈努力。

Now let me turn to our results.

現在讓我談談我們的結果。

I'm very pleased with our strong performance as we continue to serve our clients in a dynamic environment.

我對我們的強勁表現感到非常滿意，因為我們繼續在充滿活力的環境中為客戶提供服務。

In the fourth quarter, we generated revenues of $13.9 billion, earnings per share of $11.95, an ROE of 14.6% and an ROTE of 15.5%.

第四季度，我們營收 139 億美元，每股收益 11.95 美元，ROE 為 14.6%，ROTE 為 15.5%。

For the full year, we increased our revenues by 16% to $53.5 billion.

全年營收成長 16%，達到 535 億美元。

We grew our EPS by 77% to $40.54 and improved our ROE by over 500 basis points to 12.7%, demonstrating strong operating leverage.

我們的 EPS 成長了 77%，達到 40.54 美元，ROE 提高了 500 個基點，達到 12.7%，展現了強大的營運槓桿。

Before we review our financials in detail, I will start today's presentation with a strategic update.

在我們詳細審查我們的財務狀況之前，我將首先介紹策略更新。

Beginning on page 1, we have a clear purpose at Goldman Sachs.

從第一頁開始，我們在高盛就有了明確的目標。

We aspire to be the world's most exceptional financial institution, united by our shared values of client service, partnership, integrity, and excellence.

我們立志成為世界上最卓越的金融機構，我們以客戶服務、夥伴關係、誠信和卓越的共同價值觀團結在一起。

These values are the foundation of our strategy and enable us to deliver for our clients and our shareholders.

這些價值觀是我們策略的基礎，使我們能夠為客戶和股東提供服務。

As shown on page 2, our interconnected client franchises are at the core of our growth strategy.

如第 2 頁所示，我們相互關聯的客戶特許經營是我們成長策略的核心。

Our Global Banking to markets business is distinguished by its scale, profitability, and leadership positions.

我們的全球銀行市場業務以其規模、獲利能力和領導地位而聞名。

In investment banking, we once again ended the year as the number 1 M&A adviser.

在投資銀行領域，我們在年底再次成為排名第一的併購顧問。

In markets, we have the number 1 equities business and a leading franchise.

在市場上，我們擁有排名第一的股票業務和領先的特許經營權。

These leadership positions have been built over decades of investment, and they reflect the confidence and trust that our clients have in us.

這些領導地位是經過數十年的投資建立起來的，它們反映了客戶對我們的信心和信任。

Our asset and wealth management business is comprised of a leading global active asset manager, a top 5 alternatives franchise, and a premier ultra-high net worth wealth management business.

我們的資產和財富管理業務由全球領先的主動資產管理公司、排名前五的另類資產管理公司和一流的超高淨值財富管理業務組成。

This scaled business is over $3.1 trillion in assets under supervision with global breadth and depth across products and solutions.

該業務規模龐大，受監管資產超過 3.1 兆美元，產品和解決方案涵蓋全球廣度和深度。

Importantly, our One Goldman Sachs operating philosophy drives the interconnectedness between these two world-class businesses, enabling us to seamlessly deliver a variety of unique solutions and execution capabilities to our clients.

重要的是，我們的「One Goldman Sachs」營運理念推動了這兩家世界級企業之間的相互聯繫，使我們能夠無縫地向客戶提供各種獨特的解決方案和執行能力。

Turning to page 3.

翻到第 3 頁。

Delivering excellence to our clients is only possible because rates assets, our people.

只有對我們的資產和員工進行評級，才能為我們的客戶提供卓越的服務。

Their exceptional focus and dedication supported by our culture of collaboration and excellence is critical in solving our clients' most consequential problems.

在我們的協作和卓越文化的支持下，他們的非凡專注和奉獻精神對於解決客戶最重要的問題至關重要。

Our people, history, and culture have made Goldman Sachs an aspirational brand around the globe, which allows us to attract quality talent across the organization from our summer interns all the way to our partners.

我們的人才、歷史和文化使高盛成為全球範圍內的理想品牌，這使我們能夠吸引整個組織的優質人才，從暑期實習生一直到我們的合作夥伴。

And we invest heavily in our people.

我們對員工進行了大量投資。

Many of them have long careers at the firm, exemplified by the fact that over 40% of our partners started as campus hires.

他們中的許多人在公司工作了很長時間，我們超過 40% 的合夥人都是從校園員工開始的。

Of course, not all of our people stay at Goldman Sachs for their entire careers.

當然，並非所有員工的整個職業生涯都留在高盛。

Many leave for opportunities to be at other companies and investment firms.

許多人離開是為了尋找在其他公司和投資公司工作的機會。

And these firms, in turn, often become important clients of Goldman Sachs.

而這些公司反過來常常成為高盛的重要客戶。

Today, more than 275 of our alumni are in C-suite roles at companies with either a market cap greater than $1 billion or assets under management of over $5 billion and hundreds of other alumni end up coming back to the firm as Boomerang hires, including roughly 25 partners and managing directors last year alone, a testament to our enduring brand and culture.

如今，超過 275 名校友在市值超過 10 億美元或管理資產超過 50 億美元的公司中擔任高階主管職位，數百名其他校友最終隨著 Boomerang 的招聘而回到公司，其中包括僅去年就有大約25 名合夥人和董事總經理，證明了我們持久的品牌和文化。

All in, we have an exceptional client franchise supported by our best-in-class talent and culture, which enables us to drive our strategy forward, and it is critical that we continue to invest in our people.

總而言之，我們擁有一流的人才和文化支持的卓越客戶群，這使我們能夠推動我們的策略向前發展，而我們繼續投資於我們的員工至關重要。

Now turning to page 4.

現在翻到第 4 頁。

At our first Investor Day in 2020, we laid out a comprehensive strategy to strengthen and grow the firm.

在 2020 年的第一個投資者日，我們制定了一項全面的策略來加強和發展公司。

We also laid out a number of targets that we could be held accountable for our progress.

我們也制定了一些我們可以對我們的進展負責的目標。

Today, the evidence is clear, we have met or exceeded almost all of these targets.

今天，證據很清楚，我們已經達到或超過了幾乎所有這些目標。

We have grown our revenues from $37 billion to $54 billion, nearly 50%, while improving the durability of those revenue streams.

我們的營收從 370 億美元成長到 540 億美元，成長了近 50%，同時提高了這些收入流的持久性。

The Global Banking to markets, we've maintained our position as the leading M&A adviser in investment banking and have improved our standing with the top 150 clients and thicken equities over the past five years.

在全球銀行業務市場方面，過去五年來，我們一直保持著投資銀行領域領先併購顧問的地位，並提高了我們在 150 強客戶中的地位，並增厚了股票。

At the same time, we've significantly increased our more durable [thick] and equity financing revenues which together have grown at a 15% CAGR to a new record of $9.1 billion this year.

同時，我們顯著增加了更持久的[厚]和股權融資收入，這些收入今年以 15% 的複合年增長率增長至 91 億美元的新紀錄。

In asset and wealth management, we've consistently grown our more durable management and other fees in private banking and lending revenues, both of which were record in 2024.

在資產和財富管理方面，我們在私人銀行和貸款收入方面的更持久的管理費和其他費用持續增長，這兩項收入在 2024 年均創歷史新高。

Notably, management and other fees surpassed $10 billion, exceeding our 2024 target.

值得注意的是，管理費和其他費用超過 100 億美元，超出了我們 2024 年的目標。

In addition, alternative fundraising surpassed $70 billion.

此外，另類融資規模超過 700 億美元。

The success is a direct result of our continued innovation developing new strategies and our long-standing track record of investment performance.

這項成功是我們不斷創新、制定新策略以及我們長期投資績效記錄的直接結果。

Additionally, we further narrowed our strategic focus.

此外，我們進一步縮小了戰略重點。

We closed on the sale of GreenSky entered into an agreement with General Motors to transition their credit card program and sold our portfolio of seller financing loans.

我們完成了 GreenSky 的出售，與通用汽車簽訂了一項協議，以過渡其信用卡計劃，並出售了我們的賣方融資貸款組合。

Turning to page 5.

翻到第5頁。

Global banking and markets, our leading franchise has produced average revenues of $33 billion and an average ROE of 16% over the last five years across a variety of market environments, demonstrating the diversity and strength of this business.

在全球銀行和市場領域，我們領先的特許經營業務在過去五年中在各種市場環境中創造了 330 億美元的平均收入和 16% 的平均 ROE，展示了該業務的多樣性和實力。

While no one has a crystal ball, there are a number of catalysts that we believe will continue to drive activity.

雖然沒有人有水晶球，但我們相信有許多催化劑將繼續推動經濟活動。

There has been a meaningful shift in CEO confidence, particularly following the results of the US election.

執行長的信心發生了有意義的轉變，特別是在美國大選結果之後。

Additionally, there is a significant backlog from sponsors and an overall increased appetite to dealmaking supported by an improving regulatory backdrop.

此外，在監管環境改善的支持下，保薦人積壓了大量訂單，交易興趣整體增強。

The combination of these conditions should spur further activity in 2025.

這些條件結合起來應該會刺激 2025 年的進一步活動。

One large strategic opportunity we are particularly focused on relates to financing.

我們特別關注的一大策略機會與融資有關。

Goldman Sachs operates the fulcrum of one of the most important structural trends currently taking place in finance.

高盛是當前金融業最重要的結構性趨勢之一的支點。

The emergence and growth of our private credit and other asset classes that can be privately deployed.

我們的私人信貸和其他可以私人部署的資產類別的出現和增長。

Our unique origination capabilities position us to both connect companies' dependable capital and connect investors to assets that can produce superior returns.

我們獨特的創始能力使我們能夠將公司的可靠資本連接起來，並將投資者與能夠產生卓越回報的資產連接起來。

Earlier this week, we announced the formation of our Capital Solutions group, which will harness the power of One Goldman Sachs to provide a comprehensive suite of our financing, origination, structuring, and risk management offerings across both public and private markets.

本週早些時候，我們宣布成立資本解決方案小組，該小組將利用 One Goldman Sachs 的力量，在公共和私人市場提供一整套融資、發起、結構和風險管理產品。

We are taking the current capabilities of our financing group, adding coverage of financial sponsors and alternative asset management firms to better innovate and accelerate the delivery of services to clients.

我們正在利用融資團隊的現有能力，擴大金融贊助商和另類資產管理公司的覆蓋範圍，以更好地創新並加快為客戶提供服務。

We are also creating an alternative origination group focused on sourcing to provide seamless coverage to our private credit and private equity clients.

我們還創建了一個專注於採購的替代發起小組，為我們的私人信貸和私募股權客戶提供無縫覆蓋。

We are excited about providing our clients with access to differentiated sourcing and investment capabilities, which will in turn help us accelerate growth across the franchise.

我們很高興為我們的客戶提供差異化的採購和投資能力，這反過來將幫助我們加速整個特許經營的成長。

Now let me turn to asset and wealth management on page 6.

現在讓我談談第 6 頁的資產和財富管理。

Our assets under supervision reached another record, reflecting our 28th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows.

我們的監管資產再創新高，反映出我們連續 28 個季度實現長期收費淨流入。

In wealth management, our total client assets rose to $1.6 trillion.

在財富管理方面，我們的客戶總資產增加至1.6兆美元。

We also bolstered our durable revenue streams.

我們也增強了持久的收入來源。

Management and other fees and private banking and lending revenues together have grown at a CAGR of 12% since 2019, and we continue to expect to drive high single-digit annual growth in the coming years.

自 2019 年以來，管理費和其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款收入合計複合年增長率為 12%，我們繼續預計未來幾年將實現高個位數的年增長率。

Turning to page 7.

翻到第7頁。

We meaningfully improved our AWM pretax margin in 2024, achieving our medium-term target.

我們在 2024 年顯著提高了 AWM 稅前利潤率，實現了我們的中期目標。

In our journey to further improve the return profile of the firm, we are committed to driving this business towards mid-teens returns.

在進一步改善公司回報狀況的過程中，我們致力於推動該業務實現中雙位數回報。

We see significant growth opportunities across wealth management, alternatives, and solutions.

我們在財富管理、替代方案和解決方案方面看到了巨大的成長機會。

In wealth management, we are growing this business by increasing the number of advisers in the field and surrounding them with content specialists.

在財富管理方面，我們透過增加該領域顧問的數量並在他們周圍配備內容專家來發展這項業務。

We are expanding our loan product offerings, and we're elevating our overall client experience with further investment in our digital capabilities.

我們正在擴大我們的貸款產品範圍，並透過進一步投資我們的數位能力來提升我們的整體客戶體驗。

In alternatives, we are scaling our flagship fund program and developing new strategies.

另一方面，我們正在擴大我們的旗艦基金計劃並製定新的策略。

We remain focused on penetrating the institutional client base and expanding our wealth gem.

我們仍然專注於滲透機構客戶群並擴大我們的財富寶石。

Additionally, we are investing in tailored solutions for institutional and third-party wealth clients who continue to see customization across SMAs, direct indexing, and ETFs in a structured form.

此外，我們正在為機構和第三方財富客戶投資客製化解決方案，他們繼續以結構化形式看到跨 SMA、直接指數和 ETF 的客製化。

On page 8, we demonstrate the durability of the revenues across the firm.

在第 8 頁，我們展示了整個公司收入的持久性。

This is not the first time we've laid out this information, but it serves as a good reminder.

這不是我們第一次列出這些訊息，但它是一個很好的提醒。

Baseline revenues are shown in gray, which represents some of the trailing 10-year lows for each of the businesses that are considered to be more cyclical: advisory, underwriting, and intermediation.

基準收入以灰色顯示，代表了諮詢、承銷和中介等被認為更具週期性的業務的一些過去 10 年低點。

As I said last year, we believe this is a very conservative measurement because it's unlikely that every one of these businesses would ever hit a low point all at the same time.

正如我去年所說，我們認為這是一個非常保守的衡量標準，因為所有這些業務都不太可能同時觸及低點。

In the 25 years since we became a public company, it hasn't happened once.

自從我們成為上市公司以來的 25 年裡，這樣的事情還沒有發生過。

The dark blue represents more durable revenues from financing, management and other fees as well as private banking and lending, which grew 13% versus 2023.

深藍色代表來自融資、管理和其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款的更持久的收入，與 2023 年相比增長了 13%。

Taken together, these two components made up approximately 70% of total revenues in 2024.

總的來說，這兩個部分約佔 2024 年總收入的 70%。

In addition, given our diversified franchise, we have consistently demonstrated our ability to generate upside across different market environments, which further highlights the revenue-generating power of our firm.

此外，鑑於我們的多元化特許經營權，我們始終如一地展示了我們在不同市場環境中創造優勢的能力，這進一步凸顯了我們公司的創收能力。

Moving to page 9.

移至第 9 頁。

Operating efficiency remains one of our key strategic objectives.

營運效率仍然是我們的關鍵策略目標之一。

And while we have made progress, we believe there are significant opportunities to drive further efficiencies across our business.

儘管我們取得了進展，但我們相信還有大量機會可以進一步提高我們的業務效率。

We've established a three-year program as a part of our business planning process that will help us dynamically manage our expense base, harness technology and automation, and reinvest in our businesses.

我們制定了一個為期三年的計劃，作為我們業務規劃流程的一部分，這將幫助我們動態管理我們的支出基礎，利用技術和自動化，並對我們的業務進行再投資。

First, we are optimizing our organizational footprint by expanding our presence in strategic locations and calibrating our pyramid structure.

首先，我們透過擴大策略地點的影響力和調整金字塔結構來優化我們的組織足跡。

Second, on spend management, we are optimizing transaction-based expenses and looking to more efficiently manage our vendor and consultant relationships.

其次，在支出管理方面，我們正在優化基於交易的支出，並尋求更有效地管理我們的供應商和顧問關係。

We will also continue to reduce operating expense associated with our consolidated investment entities as we further sell down those assets.

隨著我們進一步出售這些資產，我們也將繼續減少與合併投資實體相關的營運費用。

Lastly, we were leveraging AI solutions to scale and transform our engineering capabilities, simplify and modernize our technology stack, drive productivity.

最後，我們利用人工智慧解決方案來擴展和轉變我們的工程能力，簡化和現代化我們的技術堆疊，提高生產力。

These efficiencies will allow us to further invest for growth and improve client experience.

這些效率將使我們能夠進一步投資以實現成長並改善客戶體驗。

Moving to page 10.

移至第 10 頁。

We believe the path to our return targets is straightforward.

我們相信實現回報目標的道路是直截了當的。

First, we have demonstrated our ability to deliver mid-teens returns on our leading global banking and markets franchise.

首先，我們已經證明了我們有能力透過我們領先的全球銀行和市場特許經營權來提供十幾歲左右的回報。

Second, we are making strong progress against our plan to drive asset wealth management to mid-teens and beyond.

其次，我們在推動資產財富管理達到中十幾歲及以上的計劃方面正在取得重大進展。

And lastly, we are driving platform solutions to pretax breakeven in 2025.

最後，我們正在推動平台解決方案在 2025 年實現稅前損益平衡。

Taken together, we have a clear path to producing our target returns, which will further unlock shareholder value.

總而言之，我們有一條明確的路徑來實現目標回報，這將進一步釋放股東價值。

Before turning it over to Denis, I want to spend a moment on regulation.

在將其交給丹尼斯之前，我想花點時間談談監管。

Last month, trade groups representing the major US banks, including Goldman Sachs, filed suit against the Federal Reserve.

上個月，代表美國主要銀行（包括高盛）的貿易團體對聯準會提起訴訟。

We have long been concerned that the lack of transparency and the Fed's current stress testing creates uncertainty and at times produces results we cannot understand and which can lead to higher industry-wide borrowing costs, reduced market liquidity, and inefficient capital allocations.

我們長期以來一直擔心缺乏透明度和聯準會目前的壓力測試會帶來不確定性，有時會產生我們無法理解的結果，這可能導致全行業借貸成本上升、市場流動性減少和資本配置效率低下。

For the industry, the bar to take this step was incredibly high.

對該行業來說，採取這一步驟的門檻非常高。

And while the Fed has announced that it's seeking to improve the stress test, the suit was filed to protect our rights.

儘管聯準會宣布正在尋求改進壓力測試，但提起訴訟是為了保護我們的權利。

We believe it is our responsibility to continue to press for a more transparent regulatory process in order to foster a more efficient financial system that supports growth and competitiveness of the US economy.

我們認為，我們有責任繼續推動更透明的監管流程，以培養更有效率的金融體系，支持美國經濟的成長和競爭力。

In closing, I'm very confident about the trajectory of Goldman Sachs.

最後，我對高盛的發展軌跡非常有信心。

We are incredibly well positioned to serve our clients and to continue to drive strong returns for shareholders as we execute with a relentless emphasis on client service, partnership, integrity, and excellence.

我們非常有能力為客戶服務，並繼續為股東帶來豐厚的回報，因為我們不懈地強調客戶服務、合作夥伴關係、誠信和卓越。

Let me now turn it over to Denis to cover our financial results in more detail.

現在讓我將其轉交給丹尼斯，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, David, and good morning.

謝謝你，大衛，早安。

Let's start with our results on page 11 of the presentation.

讓我們從簡報第 11 頁的結果開始。

In the fourth quarter, we generated net revenues of $13.9 billion, EPS of $11.95, and ROE of 14.6% and an ROTE of 15.5%, resulting in full year EPS of $40.54 and an ROE of 12.7%.

第四季度，我們的淨資產收益率為 139 億美元，每股收益為 11.95 美元，淨資產收益率為 14.6%，ROTE 為 15.5%，全年每股收益為 40.54 美元，淨資產收益率為 12.7%。

As David highlighted, we made significant progress this year on executing our strategic priorities.

正如大衛所強調的那樣，我們今年在執行戰略重點方面取得了重大進展。

In aggregate, these select items had a de minimis impact on the firm's full year results.

總的來說，這些選定項目對公司全年業績的影響微乎其微。

Turning to results by segment, starting on page 14. global banking and markets produced revenues of $35 billion for the year, up 16% amid broad-based strength versus last year.

從第 14 頁開始，按部門劃分業績。

In the fourth quarter, investment banking fees of $2.1 billion rose 24% year-over-year.

第四季度，投資銀行費用為21億美元，年增24%。

Advisory revenues came in at $960 million and equity underwriting revenues increased substantially year-over-year to $499 million, as strong equity markets supported robust issuance activity.

由於強勁的股票市場支持了強勁的發行活動，諮詢收入達到 9.6 億美元，股票承銷收入較去年同期大幅成長，達到 4.99 億美元。

Net underwriting revenues rose 51% to $595 million amid higher leveraged finance activity, given the strengthening financing conditions post election.

鑑於選舉後融資條件的加強，槓桿融資活動增加，淨承保收入增加 51% 至 5.95 億美元。

For 2024, we maintained our number 1 position in the league tables for announced and completed M&A, ranked third in equity underwriting and second in leverage lending.

2024 年，我們在已宣布和完成的併購排行榜上保持第一的位置，在股票承銷方面排名第三，在槓桿貸款方面排名第二。

Despite strong accruals in the fourth quarter, our Investment Banking backlog rose sequentially and remains robust, particularly in advisory.

儘管第四季度的應計項目強勁，但我們的投資銀行業務積壓量連續上升並保持強勁，特別是在諮詢領域。

The intensity of our client dialogues has been increasing, and we're seeing renewed CEO confidence and desire from sponsors to transact.

我們與客戶對話的強度一直在增加，我們看到執行長的信心和贊助商的交易願望重新煥發。

While there remains some policy uncertainty, there is an expectation that the regulatory burden will be reduced, which should serve as a tailwind to risk assets and capital deployment.

儘管仍存在一些政策不確定性，但預計監管負擔將減輕，這應成為風險資產和資本配置的推動力。

We are optimistic on the outlook for 2025 and expect a further pickup in M&A and IPO activity.

我們對 2025 年的前景持樂觀態度，並預計併購和 IPO 活動將進一步回升。

FICC net revenues were $2.7 billion in the quarter, up 35% year-over-year.

該季度 FICC 淨收入為 27 億美元，年增 35%。

In intermediation, we saw strength in currencies and mortgages.

在中介方面，我們看到了貨幣和抵押貸款的強勢。

Record FICC financing revenues rose 34% versus last year, primarily on better results within mortgages and structured lending.

FICC 融資收入創歷史新高，較去年增長 34%，這主要得益於抵押貸款和結構性貸款的更好業績。

Equities net revenues were $3.5 billion in the quarter.

該季度股票淨收入為 35 億美元。

Equities intermediation revenues were $2 billion, up 30% year-over-year, primarily driven by strong performance in cash products.

股票中介營收為 20 億美元，年增 30%，主要得益於現金產品的強勁表現。

Record equities financing revenues of $1.5 billion rose 36% versus the prior year amid higher average balances in prime and stronger performance in portfolio financing.

由於優質資產平均餘額增加以及投資組合融資表現強勁，股票融資收入創歷史新高，達到 15 億美元，較上年增長 36%。

For the full year, total equities net revenues were a record $13.4 billion amidst strong levels of client engagement and higher client balances.

由於客戶參與度高且客戶餘額增加，全年股票淨收入總額達到創紀錄的 134 億美元。

Across FICC and equities, financing revenues rose 17% in 2024 to a record $9.1 billion.

FICC 和股票的融資收入 2024 年成長 17%，達到創紀錄的 91 億美元。

Moving to asset and wealth management on page 15.

前往第 15 頁的資產和財富管理。

For 2024, revenues of $16.1 billion rose 16% year-over-year as our more durable revenues grew to new records.

2024 年，隨著我們更持久的收入創下新紀錄，營收將達到 161 億美元，年增 16%。

In the quarter, management other fees were a record $2.8 billion, up 8% sequentially and 15% year-over-year.

本季度，管理其他費用達到創紀錄的 28 億美元，季增 8%，年增 15%。

Private banking and lending revenues rose 11% year-over-year to $736 million.

私人銀行和貸款收入年增 11%，達到 7.36 億美元。

Incentive fees for the quarter were $174 million, bringing our full year incentive fees to $393 million.

本季的激勵費用為 1.74 億美元，全年激勵費用達到 3.93 億美元。

We expect to make further progress in 2025 towards our annual target of $1 billion.

我們預計 2025 年將朝著 10 億美元的年度目標取得進一步進展。

Equity and debt investment revenues totaled $993 million for the quarter, reflecting markups across our private and public portfolios and NII in our debt portfolio.

本季股權和債務投資收入總計 9.93 億美元，反映了我們的私人和公共投資組合以及債務投資組合中 NII 的加價。

For the full year, these combined revenues totaled $2.4 billion.

全年這些合併收入總計 24 億美元。

Now moving to page 16.

現在翻到第 16 頁。

Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $3.1 trillion, driven by $70 billion of liquidity products net inflows and $22 billion of long-term fee-based net inflows across asset classes.

本季末，受監管總資產達到創紀錄的 3.1 兆美元，這主要得益於 700 億美元的流動性產品淨流入和 220 億美元的跨資產類別長期收費淨流入。

Turning to page 17 on alternatives.

翻到第 17 頁關於替代方案的內容。

Alternative assets under supervision totaled $336 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, driving $621 million in management and other fees.

截至第四季末，受監管的另類資產總額為 3,360 億美元，帶動管理費和其他費用 6.21 億美元。

Gross third-party fundraising was $20 billion in the fourth quarter and $72 billion for the year.

第三季第三方募款總額為 200 億美元，全年為 720 億美元。

For 2025, we expect fundraising to be consistent with levels achieved in recent years.

對於 2025 年，我們預計籌款金額將與近年來達到的水平保持一致。

On page 19, our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $196 billion, up year-over-year, reflecting an increase in other collateralized lending.

在第 19 頁，我們季度末的貸款組合總額為 1,960 億美元，較去年同期成長，反映出其他抵押貸款的增加。

Our provision for credit losses was $351 million in the quarter, primarily driven by net charge-offs in our credit card portfolio and balance growth, partially offset by reserve releases in the wholesale portfolio.

本季我們的信貸損失準備金為 3.51 億美元，主要是由信用卡投資組合的淨沖銷和餘額增長推動的，部分被批發投資組合的準備金釋放所抵消。

Let's turn to expenses on page 20.

讓我們來看看第 20 頁的費用。

Total operating expenses for the year were $33.8 billion.

全年營運支出總額為 338 億美元。

Our 2024 compensation ratio net of provisions was 32%.

2024 年扣除撥備後的薪資率為 32%。

Quarterly noncompensation expenses were $4.5 billion, down 8% year-over-year.

季度非薪酬支出為 45 億美元，年減 8%。

As David mentioned, we're driving efficiencies across our organizational structure, spend management, and automation efforts, which will enable us to further invest across the client franchise.

正如大衛所提到的，我們正在提高組織結構、支出管理和自動化工作的效率，這將使我們能夠進一步投資於整個客戶業務。

These efforts are designed to enhance productivity and help drive operating leverage as we work towards achieving our through-the-cycle targets.

這些努力旨在提高生產力，並在我們努力實現整個週期目標的過程中幫助提高營運槓桿。

Our effective tax rate for 2024 was 22.4%.

我們 2024 年的有效稅率為 22.4%。

For 2025, we expect a tax rate of approximately 20%.

2025 年，我們預計稅率約為 20%。

Next, capital on slide 21.

接下來，投影片 21 上的大寫字母。

Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 15% at the end of the fourth quarter under the standardized approach, 130 basis points above our current capital requirement of 13.7%.

截至第四季末，依照標準法，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 15%，比我們目前 13.7% 的資本要求高出 130 個基點。

In the fourth quarter, we returned approximately $3 billion to common shareholders, including common stock repurchases of $2 billion and dividends of $965 million.

第四季度，我們向普通股股東返還了約 30 億美元，其中包括 20 億美元的普通股回購和 9.65 億美元的股息。

In conclusion, our strong performance this year reflects the strength of our client franchise, our intense focus on execution, and an improving operating environment.

總之，我們今年的強勁表現反映了我們客戶特許經營的實力、我們對執行的高度重視以及不斷改善的營運環境。

We continue to maintain our leadership positions across global banking and markets and are leaning into secular growth opportunities across asset and wealth management.

我們繼續保持在全球銀行業和市場的領導地位，並致力於抓住資產和財富管理領域的長期成長機會。

As we enter 2025, we remain confident in our ability to deliver for clients and drive strong returns for shareholders.

進入 2025 年，我們對為客戶提供服務並為股東帶來豐厚回報的能力仍然充滿信心。

With that, we'll now open up the line for questions.

現在，我們將開放提問熱線。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。

We will now take a moment to compile the Q&A roster.

我們現在將花一些時間來整理問答名冊。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

I guess, maybe just David following up on the comments you made around regulations.

我想，也許只是大衛跟進你對法規的評論。

Like when you talk to investors, I mean, we saw what happened with the SCB last year and I think there's been a laser focus on being more punitive and capital markets post GFC for many justifiable reasons, but just talk to us when you think about the regulatory outlook and I appreciate significant uncertainty.

就像當你與投資者交談時一樣，我的意思是，我們看到了去年渣打銀行發生的事情，我認為出於許多合理的原因，人們開始關注在全球金融危機後採取更具懲罰性的措施和資本市場，但當你想到以下問題時，請與我們交談監管前景，我意識到存在很大的不確定性。

We're waiting for policymakers to kind of take new feed.

我們正在等待政策制定者採取新的措施。

But how do you think that plays out and in particular in terms of the operating backdrop for your capital markets business and investment banking business?

但您認為這會如何發揮作用，特別是在您的資本市場業務和投資銀行業務的營運背景方面？

Like how should we think about how could it be different over the next 2 years to 3 years relative to the last 5 years or even 10 years?

例如我們該如何思考未來2年到3年相對於過去5年甚至10年會有什麼不同？

Well, it's hard, I mean, it's hard for me to speculate, given where we are and I appreciate the question.

嗯，這很難，我的意思是，考慮到我們所處的位置，我很難推測，而且我很欣賞這個問題。

It's something obviously we're spending a lot of time thinking about.

顯然，我們花了很多時間思考這個問題。

But, I think they're obviously when you talk about capital, there are obviously three avenues.

但是，我認為當你談論資本時，顯然有三種途徑。

First there is CCAR and the industry took an action because the industry doesn't think that the way CCAR operates and the lack of transparency is appropriate or candidly legal.

首先是 CCAR，業界採取了行動，因為業界認為 CCAR 的運作方式和缺乏透明度是不適當的或坦率的合法的。

So that's why we took the action that we did.

這就是我們採取行動的原因。

The Fed has commented that it plans to make changes and adjustments.

聯準會已表示計劃做出改變和調整。

But obviously, there are changes going on with the administration shift, there are changes going on at the Fed.

但顯然，隨著政府的轉變，聯準會也在改變。

And it's hard for me to speculate how that will all play forward other than to say that the industry believes as an industry, we believe strongly and we believe this for years, this is not working appropriately at a system with more transparent and consistent capital that you can plan around, makes a more efficient and more productive system.

我很難推測這一切將如何向前發展，只能說，作為一個行業，我們堅信，而且我們多年來一直相信這一點，這在一個資本更加透明和一致的系統中並不適用。計劃，打造更有效率、更有生產力的系統。

And so we're hopeful that we'll make some progress with that.

因此，我們希望能夠在這方面取得一些進展。

The second obviously is boled three and given the change in administration and the change of leadership inside the Fed, our expectation would be that there'd be a different approach than what had been put forward.

第二個顯然是三者的補充，考慮到政府的更迭和聯準會內部領導層的變化，我們的預期是，將採取與所提出的不同的方法。

But again, we'll have to watch and we'll have to wait.

但同樣，我們必須觀察，我們必須等待。

And then last, there's GSIB and the calibration of GSIP, GSIP was always supposed to be calibrated to growth in market cap and economies it hasn't been.

最後是 GSIB 和 GSIP 的校準，GSIP 總是應該根據市值和經濟體的成長進行校準，但事實並非如此。

And so that's another avenue of dialogue.

這是對話的另一種方式。

Net, net unpredictable.

淨，淨不可測。

I don't want to predict.

我不想預測。

I don't want to speculate, but certainly it feels like we're in an environment where there could be a constructive discussion about improving the transparency, clarity and consistency around this.

我不想猜測，但確實感覺到我們所處的環境可以就提高透明度、清晰度和一致性進行建設性討論。

And I think that would be, very, very good, both for the system and capital markets, probably.

我認為這對於系統和資本市場來說可能都非常非常好。

That's fair.

這很公平。

And just to follow up on the slide 5, you mentioned the forward catalyst increased sponsor activity.

在投影片 5 中，您提到了前向催化劑增加了贊助商活動。

We've been waiting for this, we see some signs of pick up there.

我們一直在等待這一點，我們看到了一些回升的跡象。

You've talked about M&A being sort of sub 10 year averages, give us a sense of just how quickly means we know the [DOJ FTC] backdrop will be more conducive for deal making, is how quickly could we see a more significant ramp up around deals IPOs, is it a second half event?

您談到併購數量低於 10 年平均水平，讓我們了解，我們知道 [DOJ FTC] 背景將更有利於交易達成，我們能多快看到更顯著的增長圍繞IPO交易，這是下半年的事件嗎？

Could we see that as early as the next couple of months?

我們最早能在接下來的幾個月看到這一點嗎？

I think you're going to see it.

我想你會看到的。

I think you're going to see it throughout 2025.

我想你會在整個 2025 年看到它。

I don't want to speculate where it'll land versus 10 year averages, but it's certainly setting up to be much more constructive and robust and the data set that we would have, that allows us to articulate that is we can obviously track our backlog, but we can also track inquiries, activities, dialogues inside the firm.

我不想推測它與10 年平均水平相比會達到什麼水平，但它肯定會變得更具建設性和穩健性，而且我們擁有的數據集使我們能夠清楚地表明，我們可以明顯地跟踪我們的數據。

And I say there's been a meaningful pickup in large cap M&A dialogue and inquiry, there's been a meaningful pickup and sponsor inquiry and dialogue.

我說，大盤股併購對話和詢問、贊助商詢問和對話都出現了有意義的回升。

And, we continue to see, strong positive backlog trends as Dennis highlighted to you.

而且，正如丹尼斯向您強調的那樣，我們繼續看到強勁的積極積壓趨勢。

Christian Bolu, Autonomous Research.

克里斯蒂安·博盧，自主研究。

Good morning, David and Dennis.

早安，大衛和丹尼斯。

Maybe apologies for maybe a tick question here.

也許對這裡的一個問題表示歉意。

But if I'm reading the slides correctly, footnotes 11 and 12, which help bridge your ROE GAAP to 15%.

但如果我正確地閱讀了幻燈片，腳註 11 和 12 有助於將您的 ROE GAAP 提高到 15%。

Are you assuming sort of roughly $9 billion of capital return from HPI and platform solutions to shareholders?

您是否假設 HPI 和平台解決方案向股東帶來約 90 億美元的資本回報？

Because if you are -- maybe talk through how that buts against things like SLR constraints at that level of capital return and then just more broadly on capital just given the improving opportunity set here.

因為如果你是——也許可以談談這如何反對諸如單眼相機在資本回報水平上的限制，然後考慮到這裡設定的改善機會，更廣泛地討論資本。

How, how are you balancing returning capital to shareholders versus investing in the business?

您如何平衡向股東返還資本與投資業務？

Sure.

當然。

So I'll start and Dennis will add particularly on capital return.

我將開始，丹尼斯將特別補充資本回報。

But our path to mid 10s is a simpler analysis than what you laid forward.

但我們通往 10 年代中期的道路比您提出的分析更簡單。

The firm is driving toward having two fundamental business platforms.

該公司正致力於擁有兩個基本業務平台。

And we've been very clear on this is we've narrowed our focus.

我們對此非常明確，我們已經縮小了關注範圍。

Global banking and markets and asset and wealth management.

全球銀行和市場以及資產和財富管理。

We still have the legacy platforms, but we continue to make progress around that global banking and markets, I think has shown over the course of the last five years that this business should be mid 10s throughout the cycle.

我們仍然擁有遺留平台，但我們繼續圍繞全球銀行和市場取得進展，我認為過去五年的過程表明，這項業務在整個週期中應該處於 10 年代中期。

On asset and wealth management, we've commented to you that we've met our medium term margin target margin, but we have not yet improved the returns in that business to the levels that we believe that we can return them.

在資產和財富管理方面，我們已向您表示，我們已經達到了中期利潤率目標，但我們尚未將該業務的回報率提高到我們認為可以回報的水平。

We believe over the next couple of years continued scaling and profitability on our term platform combined with our ability to continue to grow management fees and at the same time, also free up capital from legacy principal investments will allow us to bring the returns and asset wealth management to the mid 10s or higher.

我們相信，在未來幾年中，我們的定期平台的持續擴展和盈利能力，加上我們繼續增加管理費的能力，同時也從遺留本金投資中釋放資本，將使我們能夠帶來回報和資產財富管理到10多歲或更高。

In addition, platform solutions, where we still have the Apple card platform this year depending on how you look at it.

另外，平台解決方案，今年我們還是有蘋果卡平台，就看你怎麼看。

I'll give you rough numbers was a 75 basis points to 100 basis points drag on the firm's overall ROE.

我給你粗略的數字，該公司的整體淨資產收益率受到 75 個基點到 100 個基點的拖累。

That will improve in 2025 and 2026.

這種情況將在 2025 年和 2026 年得到改善。

And so it's just math.

所以這只是數學。

If you have a mid 10s, global banking and markets business, if we get asset and wealth management to mid 10s plus and we remove the drag from the platforms that gets you to a mid 10s business.

如果您擁有 10 多歲的全球銀行和市場業務，如果我們將資產和財富管理提升到 10 多歲以上，我們將消除平台上的阻力，讓您進入 10 多歲的業務。

We have a high level of confidence in our ability to execute against that.

我們對我們的執行能力充滿信心。

The dentist will give you a comment.

牙醫會給你一個評論。

We're obviously generating a lot of capital.

顯然我們正在產生大量資本。

We do see opportunities to deploy.

我們確實看到了部署的機會。

The dentist will give you some comments on how we're thinking about capital deployment and also returns.

牙醫會給您一些關於我們如何考慮資本配置和回報的評論。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

And Christian, I think you're making references some capital release numbers, within the overall remaining portfolio of HPI, we do note that there's about [4 billion] of retaining attributable of remaining attributable equity.

克里斯蒂安，我認為您正在參考一些資本釋放數字，在 HPI 的剩餘整體投資組合中，我們確實注意到大約有 [40 億] 的剩餘權益保留。

And then obviously over time, we both have to narrow the pre tax drag and platform solutions and ultimately someday may be able to release all of the equity associated with that business as well.

顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們都必須縮小稅前阻力和平台解決方案，最終有一天也許能夠釋放與該業務相關的所有股權。

So those are obviously contributors to our longer term return target achievement.

因此，這些顯然有助於我們實現長期回報目標。

I think as it relates to capital return, as we sit headed into 2025, we have 130 basis points of cushion versus

我認為，由於它與資本回報率有關，當我們進入 2025 年時，我們有 130 個基點的緩衝

[ragmin].

[拉格敏]。

As David's commented, as the firm believes, there should be a significant uptick in client opportunity.

正如大衛所評論的那樣，正如該公司所認為的那樣，客戶機會應該會顯著增加。

As always, we would look to fill that demand as best we possibly can as a matter of priority.

一如既往，我們將盡可能優先滿足這項需求。

We remain committed to sustainably growing our dividend and then obviously, seek to return excess capital.

我們仍然致力於可持續地增加股息，然後顯然會尋求返還多餘的資本。

You all will have noted last year was a record year for capital return by Goldman Sachs.

大家都會注意到，去年是高盛資本回報創紀錄的一年。

So we were able to grow the franchise, grow the firm as well as return record levels of capital to shareholders.

因此，我們能夠擴大特許經營權，發展公司，並向股東返還創紀錄的資本水準。

As we head into '25, we'll support clients invest in sustainably growing our dividend and then to the extent we have access capital, return it to shareholders, all the while managing, an appropriate buffer, given some of the ongoing regulatory uncertainty.

當我們進入25 世紀時，我們將支持客戶投資於可持續成長的股息，然後在我們有能力獲得資本的情況下，將其返還給股東，同時考慮到一些持續的監管不確定性，同時管理適當的緩衝。

Okay.

好的。

Got you.

明白你了。

Maybe David, look kudos to you on the firm.

也許大衛，公司對你表示敬佩。

You're currently taking share across your businesses, whether it's markets or in alternatives and in private world doing a great job.

您目前正在整個企業中佔據份額，無論是在市場還是在另類領域，以及在私人領域，您都做得很好。

But just given to your point, the improved opportunity set here and perhaps more friendly regulatory environment.

但就你的觀點而言，這裡提供了更好的機會，也許還有更友善的監管環境。

Any thoughts on doing a strategic deal to accelerate your growth prospects within or private world?

對於進行策略交易以加速您在內部或私人領域的成長前景有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I appreciate the question, Christian.

我很欣賞這個問題，克里斯蒂安。

And look, we always think about particularly around our asset wealth platform.

看，我們總是特別圍繞著我們的資產財富平台進行思考。

Are there things that could accelerate our growth and journey in the overall mix of the firm.

是否有一些事情可以加速我們在公司整體組合中的成長和旅程？

As I've said before, the bar for doing something is high.

正如我之前所說，做某事的門檻很高。

I'd also say these businesses, are sold, they're not bought.

我還想說，這些企業是被出售的，而不是被收購的。

And at the moment, the market is valuing these businesses with an extraordinary amount of forward growth.

目前，市場對這些具有超常成長潛力的企業進行了估值。

But we obviously watch the space and over time, could there be opportunities?

但我們顯然會關注這個空間，隨著時間的推移，是否有機會？

Yes, but at the moment, we're very focused on execution.

是的，但目前我們非常注重執行力。

I think one of the things we're so excited about for the firm is we have an ability to continue to execute organically on what we've laid out in front of you and continue to improve the returns of the firm.

我認為我們對公司感到如此興奮的一件事是我們有能力繼續有機地執行我們在你們面前製定的計劃，並繼續提高公司的回報。

Plus, I think as you point out, we have tailwinds from both the environment and improving environment for the kinds of activities that flow into our ecosystem and also the overall business and regulatory environment.

另外，我認為正如您所指出的，對於流入我們生態系統的各類活動以及整體業務和監管環境，我們都受益於環境和改善環境。

So I think execution right now continues to be our primary focus.

所以我認為現在的執行仍然是我們的首要關注點。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good morning, Betsy.

早安，貝特西。

Oh, hi.

哦，嗨。

I did just want to follow up on one thing here regarding the point you were making on platform solutions.

我只是想跟進有關您在平台解決方案上提出的觀點的一件事。

It's a drag right now. 75 bps to 100 bps on ROE but '25 and '26 that will improve.

現在是一個拖累。 ROE 為 75 bps 至 100 bps，但 '25 和 '26 將會改善。

So could you just step us through?

那您能幫我們介紹一下嗎？

I mean, we know what your plans are for platform solutions, but I'm wondering what's happening in '25 and '26 that will drive the reduction of the drag in this year and next, if you can speak through that.

我的意思是，我們知道您對平台解決方案的計劃是什麼，但我想知道 25 和 26 年會發生什麼，這將推動今年和明年阻力的減少，如果您能說清楚的話。

Yeah. at a high level, Betsy, we're obviously the primary thing that's in platform solutions.

是的。從較高的層面來看，Betsy，我們顯然是平台解決方案的首要任務。

Is the Apple partnership.

是蘋果合作夥伴。

As you know, we have a contract with Apple to run that partnership until 2030.

如您所知，我們與 Apple 簽訂了一份合同，將這種合作關係維持到 2030 年。

Although there's some possibility that it won't continue until that time frame, the most important thing that's happening is the card continues to improve in its performance.

儘管有可能不會持續到該時間範圍，但最重要的是該卡的性能不斷提高。

And the card is driving toward profitability.

該卡正在推動獲利。

And so the improvement and the profitability of the card has an impact on the short term drag.

因此，信用卡的改善和獲利能力會對短期阻力產生影響。

Ultimately, whether it's in the medium term or through the life of the contract, that's not going to be a long term business for the firm.

最終，無論是在中期還是在合約期間內，這都不會成為公司的長期業務。

And that will ultimately allow us to exit and return capital.

這最終將使我們能夠退出並返還資本。

But I'm really not in a position to comment any more specifically other than the direction of travel that you're aware of.

但除了你所知道的行進方向之外，我真的無法做出更具體的評論。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then separately on the changes that were discussed with regard to how you're structuring the financing team that's within investment banking, if I got it right.

然後分別討論有關如何建立投資銀行內部融資團隊的變化（如果我沒記錯的話）。

Could you just help us understand how does this management structuring change the revenue growth outlooks that you're looking for?

您能否幫助我們了解這種管理結構如何改變您所尋求的收入成長前景？

Like why does this

就像為什麼這樣做

--

--

It's.

它是。

Deliver better growth?

實現更好的成長？

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

So yeah, so first of all, it's in global banking and markets.

是的，首先是在全球銀行業和市場。

And so I think the way Betsy, you should think about global banking and markets and we've been on a journey to really think about all the efficiencies that exist between what was the traditional investment banking business, what we'll call the financing or capital markets, businesses and then the global markets businesses, which are the trading businesses we brought them all together in global banking and markets.

所以我認為貝特西，你應該考慮全球銀行業和市場，我們一直在認真思考傳統投資銀行業務之間存在的所有效率，我們稱之為融資或資本市場、業務，然後是全球市場業務，這些業務是我們將它們整合到全球銀行和市場中的交易業務。

I think you should now think about that big business, that big $35 billion business as kind of having three big platforms.

我認為你現在應該考慮這個大企業，那個價值 350 億美元的大企業，就像擁有三個大平台一樣。

One is what we call traditional investment banking.

一種是我們所謂的傳統投資銀行業務。

Two, is what we'll call capital solutions.

第二，就是我們所說的資本解決方案。

And three, is what we call global markets are trading.

第三，就是我們所說的全球市場交易。

The organizational structure that we're creating allows us we believe to take advantage of something that Goldman Sachs is very uniquely positioned at the fulcrum of, which is this intersection between both public markets and private markets and the way you marry very capital with issuers, but also marrying issuers and their need for capital with all different kinds of investors.

我們正在創建的組織結構使我們能夠利用高盛非常獨特的支點，即公開市場和私人市場之間的交叉點以及將資本與發行人結合起來的方式，而且還將發行人及其對資本的需求與各種不同類型的投資者結合起來。

And I think the thing that we're very uniquely positioned on is one, we have extraordinary relationships with 12,000 companies in the world.

我認為我們的獨特定位是，我們與世界上 12,000 家公司建立了非凡的關係。

Two, we have extraordinary what I'll call public market financing capabilities.

第二，我們擁有非凡的公開市場融資能力。

But three, we also have an ability, whether it's through our balance sheet, whether it's through what you'll call traditional distribution channels in the institutional clients, or it's through our asset management platform and our own asset management products have a range of alternatives that we can marry to issuers to make sure they get the best product service and result.

但第三，我們也有能力，無論是透過我們的資產負債表，無論是透過機構客戶的傳統分銷管道，還是透過我們的資產管理平台，我們自己的資產管理產品有一系列替代方案我們可以與發行人合作，以確保他們獲得最好的產品服務和結果。

And so this is a way of getting that all coordinated in a one GS fashion across the firm.

因此，這是一種在整個公司內以統一 GS 方式協調所有內容的方法。

And so we've taken the traditional financing businesses and capital markets, businesses.

所以我們採取了傳統的融資業務和資本市場業務。

We've taken all the coverage of financial sponsors.

我們已經涵蓋了所有財務贊助商的報告。

We've taken all the coverage of alternative firms in our trading businesses and we're putting them together and we're bringing talent that understands both our own balance sheet and capital deployment and the ability to distribute these products together to try to optimize our capability around that.

我們已經涵蓋了我們貿易業務中的所有替代公司，我們正在將它們放在一起，我們正在引進了解我們自己的資產負債表和資本部署以及將這些產品一起分銷的能力的人才，以嘗試優化我們的產品。

And this is where we actually think there's going to be growth in the capital markets.

這就是我們實際上認為資本市場將會成長的地方。

And so our ability to capture more of that share, we think this set up allows us on a relative performance basis to do better.

因此，我們有能力獲得更多份額，我們認為這種設定使我們能夠在相對績效的基礎上做得更好。

And Betsy, one thing I'd add just in terms of overall financials, obviously, our segments are not changing the sub segments that we report into are not changing these -- this sort of streamlined synthesized origination capability.

貝特西，我要補充的一件事是，就整體財務而言，顯然，我們的細分市場沒有改變我們報告的子細分市場，也沒有改變這些——這種簡化的綜合發起能力。

We think will enable us to accelerate revenue growth by serving our clients more efficiently.

我們認為這將使我們能夠透過更有效地為客戶提供服務來加速收入成長。

But the suite of activities that are undertaking and by these originators and structurers will continue to populate the same financial line items that we have today.

但這些發起者和結構者正在進行的一系列活動將繼續填充我們今天擁有的相同的財務項目。

We just think this is a better way of organizing our people against the client opportunity set and doing everything else that David just enumerated.

我們只是認為這是一種更好的方式來根據客戶的機會組織我們的員工並完成大衛剛才列舉的所有其他事情。

And look if you go back in history, Betsy just to expand on it.

看看如果你回顧歷史，貝特西只是為了擴展它。

I mean years ago, the capital markets business is 25 years ago.

我的意思是幾年前，資本市場業務已經是 25 年前了。

So the capital markets businesses sat in the trading businesses and 20 years ago, it was a dramatic thing to put them in investment banking.

因此，資本市場業務屬於交易業務，20 年前，將它們納入投資銀行業務是一件戲劇性的事情。

So they were closer to clients.

所以他們離客戶更近了。

And so our mindset is always how do we organize our people and our resources?

因此，我們的思維始終是如何組織我們的人員和資源？

Create a 1 GS ethos and be as connected to our clients to make the experience for our clients as seamless and as simplified and as leveraging as possible.

創造 1 GS 精神並與我們的客戶保持密切聯繫，使我們的客戶體驗盡可能無縫、簡化和充分利用。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

布倫南霍肯，瑞銀集團。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

You spoke earlier to the capital unlock within the improving ROEs in AWM, but some of the more business oriented components would be driving lending solutions within wealth and scaling the flagship products and all which which I thought was interesting.

您之前談到了 AWM 改善 ROE 中的資本釋放，但一些更面向業務的組件將推動財富中的貸款解決方案並擴展旗艦產品，所有這些我認為都很有趣。

I was hoping you could speak to lending penetration and where that sits versus your target within the wealth business.

我希望您能談談貸款滲透率以及它與您在財富業務中的目標的關係。

And whether there's been an uptick in demand more recently given some of the market developments and what contribution you're expecting from ranking the flagships and maybe highlighting some of those franchises.

考慮到一些市場發展，最近的需求是否有所上升，以及您期望對旗艦產品進行排名並可能突出其中一些特許經營權帶來什麼貢獻。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, Brandon.

當然，布蘭登。

Thanks a lot for the questions.

非常感謝您的提問。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

So obviously the strategy to grow wealth is, three part in terms of primary focus, wealth management, faults and solutions.

顯然，財富成長的策略分為三個部分：重點、財富管理、缺陷和解決方案。

Within wealth management, you enumerate, one particularly attractive opportunity set for us, which is lending.

在財富管理領域，您列舉了一個對我們特別有吸引力的機會，那就是貸款。

And we've noted previously that we believe that we are relatively under penetrated, relative to some of our competitors across our wealth platform, and we've been making investments in our human capital expertise, educating our client facing professionals that we have capabilities and ambitions to support clients through lending activities.

我們之前已經指出，我們認為，與我們財富平台上的一些競爭對手相比，我們的滲透率相對較低，而且我們一直在對我們的人力資本專業知識進行投資，教育我們面向客戶的專業人士，我們有能力和能力透過貸款活動支持客戶的雄心。

We did grow our private wealth, lending balance is about $5 billion the year.

我們的私人財富確實成長了，每年的貸款餘額約為 50 億美元。

We are committed to a multi year journey of increased penetration.

我們致力於多年的滲透率提升之旅。

I think relatively we are still very low.

我認為相對來說我們還是很低的。

So we are making progress, we are optimistic, but I think we have a lot of room to improve that.

所以我們正在取得進展，我們很樂觀，但我認為我們還有很大的進步空間。

In terms of the alts business, there are a number of ways that we continue to grow and make progress in our alts franchise continues to be an attractive and appropriate component of our wealth clients portfolio.

就另類業務而言，我們可以透過多種方式繼續發展並取得進步，我們的另類業務特許經營權仍然是我們財富客戶投資組合中有吸引力且合適的組成部分。

We have very good manufacturing capabilities as a firm and also a robust third party wealth channel as well that clients can take advantage of.

作為一家公司，我們擁有非常好的製造能力，並且還有強大的第三方財富管道可供客戶利用。

Within the portfolio of well -- of alternative offerings that we make available to clients, we have certain of our flagship funds and those are raised from time to time and those are attractive opportunities for us to secure a client for deployment and they also position the firm well as a known and credible deployer of capital.

在我們向客戶提供的另類產品組合中，我們擁有某些旗艦基金，這些基金會不時籌集，這些對我們來說是吸引客戶進行部署的有吸引力的機會，它們也定位了作為知名且可信的資本部署者。

So we'll continue to raise those funds over time.

因此，我們將隨著時間的推移繼續籌集這些資金。

And as we have more assets under management per strategy, if you will better depth that will enable us to improve the overall operating leverage of that component of the asset wealth management business.

由於我們每個策略管理的資產更多，如果您能提供更好的深度，這將使我們能夠提高資產財富管理業務該部分的整體營運槓桿。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for that color.

謝謝那個顏色。

And David spoke to some of the operating efficiencies when reviewing, when giving the strategic update.

大衛在審查和提供策略更新時談到了一些營運效率。

It's interesting because how do we think about the push and pull of expenses and efficiencies as we move into 2025 given the expectations for a pretty robust and all the indications you've given for a pretty robust improvement in capital markets activity or maybe if it's easier to answer, what's the right way to think about incremental margins on revenue growth as we move forward?

這很有趣，因為考慮到對相當強勁的預期以及您給出的資本市場活動相當強勁改善的所有跡象，或者也許更容易，進入 2025 年時，我們如何考慮費用和效率的推動和拉動回答這個問題，隨著我們的前進，思考收入成長增量利潤的正確方法是什麼？

Sure, Brennan.

當然，布倫南。

I appreciate that we're actually trying to do a number of things at the same time, which is what gives rise to your question.

我很欣賞我們實際上正在嘗試同時做很多事情，這就是引起你問題的原因。

So first and foremost, we continue to see good opportunities to grow the firm and we expect that as we continue to grow the firm, we should be able to continue to deliver incremental operating leverage.

因此，首先也是最重要的是，我們繼續看到公司發展的良好機會，我們預計，隨著公司的不斷發展，我們應該能夠繼續提供增量營運槓桿。

You saw in the course of the last year that our efficiency ratio improved by 1,200 basis points.

您看到去年我們的效率提高了 1,200 個基點。

Now, it's on the order of 63% moving closer to our target of 60%.

現在，該比例約為 63%，更接近我們 60% 的目標。

So scaling the business driving incremental operating leverage continues to be a huge focus of this management team.

因此，擴大業務規模以提高營運槓桿仍然是此管理團隊的一大重點。

It's also the case that we see very attractive opportunities to make investments to scale the firm, to improve client experience, to improve our employees productivity.

我們也看到了非常有吸引力的投資機會，可以透過投資擴大公司規模、改善客戶體驗、提高員工生產力。

And we want to be able to finance some of that incremental investment spend a lot of which takes place in the engineering space by driving incremental efficiencies across the firm.

我們希望能夠透過提高整個公司的效率來為工程領域的增量投資提供資金。

And thinking about as David ran through the ways we organize ourselves, the way we locate our professionals, the way we manage our spend processes, accountability.

大衛回顧了我們組織自己的方式、我們定位專業人員的方式、我們管理支出流程和責任的方式。

This program that David made reference to has accountability up to the management committee of the firm.

大衛提到的這個計劃對公司的管理委員會負責。

It's an important piece of how we focus on running the firm efficiently.

這是我們如何專注於高效能營運公司的重要組成部分。

And we think it's something that's designed to give us capacity to fund some of the investments that we think are the best ways to continue to scale the firm, make it more resilient and improve overall client and employee experience.

我們認為，它的目的是讓我們有能力為一些投資提供資金，我們認為這些投資是繼續擴大公司規模、使其更具彈性並改善整體客戶和員工體驗的最佳方式。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

Hey David, there was another Wall Street CEO said he was the most positive.

嘿大衛，還有另一位華爾街執行長說他是最積極的。

He's been in 25 years.

他已經25年了。

So how good could things get in your mind?

那麼，在你的腦海裡，事情能有多好呢？

Because you're saying the regulatory environment, the economic environment, the backlogs are up and that's if I was doing a model for the industry, do you, we go back to the 21 pandemic highs.

因為你說的是監管環境、經濟環境、積壓訂單增加，如果我為這個行業做一個模型，你會說​​，我們會回到 21 年大流行的高點。

And on the other side of this, as highlighted by slide 9, you're all focused on expenses and on the if -- maybe if rates go up too much, what level of a 10 year yield do you think it puts a wrinkle in the kind of the bullish thesis you're laying out here a 10 year, 5% 6% 7%.

另一方面，正如投影片 9 所強調的，你們都專注於支出和假設——也許如果利率上升太多，你們認為 10 年期公債殖利率會出現什麼水準？ 10 年5% 6% 7%。

What's the most likely thing that would derail your lofty expectations?

最有可能讓你的遠大期望落空的是什麼？

Well, look, Mike, I appreciate the question and I'd say at a high level, there's no question that I highlighted in my remarks.

好吧，麥克，我很欣賞這個問題，我想說的是，我在發言中沒有強調任何問題。

There's been a sentiment shift broadly as I talked to CEOs, since the since the election, but that doesn't stop us from Goldman Sachs constantly, thinking by nature or risk managers, thinking about, how the environment can change, how that it can evolve.

自大選以來，當我與執行長交談時，情緒發生了廣泛的轉變，但這並不能阻止我們不斷地關注高盛，思考自然或風險管理者，思考環境會如何改變，它會如何改變發展。

I think at the moment for our business and our business mix.

我認為目前對於我們的業務和業務組合而言。

Particularly around capital markets, activity, etcetera.

特別是在資本市場、活動等方面。

We have a -- it feels like we have a tail end going into 2025 and I do think that levels that have been below historical averages are going at a minimum normalize, maybe do better.

我們感覺進入 2025 年會有一個尾聲，我確實認為低於歷史平均的水平至少會正常化，也許會做得更好。

I certainly wouldn't say have any expectation of capital markets activity going back to 2021.

我當然不會說對 2021 年資本市場活動有任何預期。

Anomalies -- anomalies any time, you know, soon.

異常－任何時候都會出現異常，你知道，很快就會發生。

But it is a more constructive environment.

但這是一個更具建設性的環境。

And so that's, that of course, is something that we think about as we think about deployment of resources and investment in the business.

因此，這當然是我們在考慮資源部署和業務投資時要考慮的問題。

Now, all that said, we can't predict the environment, the environment changes and we're running the firm for the medium and the long term.

話雖如此，我們無法預測環境，環境會發生變化，而我們是在中長期經營公司。

And so we are very, very focused on our growth and returns over the medium term, our growth of the firm, over the medium term and our ability to serve our clients and execute well.

因此，我們非常非常關注我們的中期成長和回報、公司的中期發展以及我們服務客戶和執行良好的能力。

And I am very confident, very very confident that no matter what the world throws at us.

我非常有信心，非常非常有信心，無論世界丟給我們什麼。

Goldman Sachs over time will continue on that journey of doing really well and growing the returns of the firm and serving our clients with excellence and and distinction.

隨著時間的推移，高盛將繼續走好這條路，不斷提高公司的回報，並以卓越和卓越的方式為我們的客戶提供服務。

I think the environment feels good, but I'm not at all confused that, I could wake up in three months and there could be things going on in the world that would change that that perspective.

我認為環境感覺很好，但我一點也不困惑，我可能會在三個月後醒來，世界上可能發生的事情會改變這種觀點。

We're always thinking about that, always trying to look around corners and are always going to manage the firm for the medium and the long term.

我們一直在思考這一點，總是試著環顧四周，並且總是以中長期的方式管理公司。

And then specifically, I guess why is platform solution still around?

然後具體來說，我想為什麼平台解決方案仍然存在？

I mean, you're number one in deal making and you haven't been able to work that out.

我的意思是，你在交易方面排名第一，但你卻沒能解決這個問題。

And on the other hand, the financing organic growth, how big is that today?

另一方面，融資有機成長現在有多大？

And how big do you expect that to be in five years?

您預計五年後會有多大？

And what about, credit risk that's related to that?

與之相關的信用風險又如何呢？

Thanks.

謝謝。

And the first question I don't really have anything to say it's different than what I've said about, our journey around the consumer platform in the business.

第一個問題我真的沒什麼好說的，這與我所說的不同，我們圍繞著商業消費者平台的旅程。

But I appreciate the question.

但我很欣賞這個問題。

On the second point, we continue to believe that there's opportunity for us to grow our financing business.

關於第二點，我們仍然相信我們有機會發展我們的融資業務。

Our financing business scales with growth in the world.

我們的融資業務隨著全球的成長而擴大。

Of course, we're incredibly focused on management and credit risk and the scale of that business against, our equity base and our balance sheet, et cetera.

當然，我們非常關注管理和信用風險以及業務規模、我們的股本基礎和資產負債表等。

But as the world grows, we believe there's opportunity for us to continue to grow and scale that business.

但隨著世界的發展，我們相信我們有機會繼續發展和擴大業務。

And I think we've proven that over time.

我認為隨著時間的推移我們已經證明了這一點。

I mean, Dennis, do you want to add anything around that?

我的意思是，丹尼斯，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yeah, I just, I draw a connection back, Mike to some of some of the comments that David made earlier, which is if really the secret sauce and draw some of these activities for clients is origination, distinction and differentiation.

是的，我只是，我把麥克和大衛之前發表的一些評論聯繫起來，這確實是秘密武器，為客戶繪製的一些活動是起源、區別和差異化。

This -- the establishment of the capital solutions group enables us to have all that origination centralized and we can -- from that origination continue to grow the fixit financing balance sheet in an appropriate risk adjusted fashion.

資本解決方案小組的成立使我們能夠集中所有來源，並且我們可以從該來源繼續以適當的風險調整方式擴大固定融資資產負債表。

We can underwrite and distribute some of that product to other investment investors across our franchise.

我們可以承銷部分產品並將其分銷給我們特許經營範圍內的其他投資投資者。

And we can also help AWM source investments that provide attractive risk adjusted returns to the clients at AWM.

我們還可以幫助 AWM 尋找投資，為 AWM 的客戶提供有吸引力的風險調整回報。

So there's an opportunity to continue to invest in growing the financing capabilities that we've been reporting on.

因此，我們有機會繼續投資以提高我們一直在報告的融資能力。

But we also have incremental outlets for the origination excellence, given the demand that we see across various stripes of investors around the market.

但考慮到市場上不同類型投資者的需求，我們也為卓越的起源提供了增量管道。

Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

Devin Ryan，公民 JMP。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Good morning, David and Dennis.

早安，大衛和丹尼斯。

First question just on the banking and markets, market share, wallet share, obviously incredibly impressive over the last handful of years.

第一個問題是關於銀行和市場、市場份額、錢包份額，在過去幾年顯然令人印象深刻。

And I think just a testament to the execution.

我認為這只是執行力的證明。

When we look at this kind of new capital solutions organization, it would seemingly better position with sponsor clients and just, I think gives that indication of where you guys are going there.

當我們審視這種新的資本解決方案組織時，它似乎在贊助商客戶中處於更好的位置，我認為這表明了你們要去哪裡。

How do you think about your market share today with sponsors and not sure if you can give any framework or numbers there.

您如何看待今天與贊助商的市場份額，不確定您是否可以提供任何框架或數字。

And then how you think about the ability to take share in that group and how important that will be to driving further kind of wallet share games from here like you've done in the past?

然後，您如何看待在該群體中獲得份額的能力，以及這對於像您過去所做的那樣從這裡推動進一步的錢包共享遊戲有多重要？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, we've -- over the last 20 years, we've made enormous investment in our relationships and our coverage of the sponsor community.

我的意思是，在過去 20 年裡，我們在我們的關係和贊助商社群的覆蓋範圍上投入了大量資金。

We have leading share with the sponsors.

我們與贊助商的份額領先。

I don't think we quantify it specifically.

我認為我們沒有具體量化它。

But we have -- it's fair to say we have leading share with sponsor community.

但可以公平地說，我們在贊助商社群中擁有領先的份額。

I think we're very well positioned as they're active to capture our fair share and even sometimes more than our fair share of that activity.

我認為我們處於非常有利的位置，因為他們積極爭取我們的公平份額，甚至有時超過我們在活動中的公平份額。

What I'd say is it's been an environment where they've been incredibly quiet, both from a deployment perspective, also a monetization perspective.

我想說的是，無論是從部署角度還是從貨幣化角度來看，他們都非常安靜。

And that's just not consistent.

這並不一致。

I've said consistently that sponsors make money by doing two things, buying new things, selling old things.

我一直說贊助商透過做兩件事來賺錢，買新東西，賣舊東西。

And so the fact that we've gone through a period of time where they haven't done a lot of either of those things that will normalize over time.

事實上，我們已經經歷了一段時間，他們沒有做很多這些隨著時間的推移會正常化的事情。

Part of it was a reset kind of valuation expectations, some of it was growing into valuation expectations that it kind of run ahead.

部分是一種重置的估值預期，部分是成長為某種超前的估值預期。

But I do believe very strongly that the next 24 months will be a much more constructive environment for sponsor activity.

但我確實堅信，未來 24 個月將為贊助商活動提供更具建設性的環境。

And our share positioning with them is very good.

我們與他們的股票定位非常好。

I think these organizational changes will only strengthen that position.

我認為這些組織變革只會加強這個地位。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just in terms of the on the alternative asset management fundraising has been terrific.

僅就另類資產管理融資而言，就非常了不起。

How should we think about the pace of deployment of kind of that record fundraising and then just kind of the trajectory of kind of the acceleration and performance fees because it would seem that could be pretty big step function higher in performance fees, but you need to deploy that capital first.

我們應該如何考慮創紀錄籌款的部署速度，以及加速費和績效費的軌跡，因為績效費似乎可能是相當大的一步，但你需要先部署該資本。

So just the time line to kind of think through that path.

所以只是思考這條道路的時間線。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure, Devin.

當然，德文。

So we're focused on that as well and it's a good question because it hits a number of topics.

所以我們也關注這個問題，這是一個很好的問題，因為它涉及很多主題。

So obviously, we had good success raising all funds and and surpassed all the various targets that we set out repeatedly.

顯然，我們成功籌集了所有資金，並超越了我們反覆設定的所有目標。

But now it's an opportunity for us to deploy.

但現在是我們部署的機會。

And the and the deal making environment and the transaction volumes moving from the market, the last couple of years being subu subdued has also impacted our ability to deploy into transactions.

交易環境和交易量從市場轉移，過去幾年的低迷也影響了我們部署交易的能力。

So as the overall backdrop improves that should be a more attractive opportunity for us to start deploying the money that we've raised and drive our AUS.

因此，隨著整體背景的改善，這對我們來說應該是一個更有吸引力的機會，可以開始部署我們籌集的資金並推動我們的 AUS。

At the same time, that same slightly more muted environment for transaction activity has been -- there's been less by way of monetization activity.

同時，交易活動的環境也稍微冷淡──貨幣化活動有所減少。

And so as we again enter into hopefully a more supportive backdrop, there'll be better opportunities for us to continue to monetize investments across our fund structures.

因此，當我們再次進入更有希望的支持性背景時，我們將有更好的機會繼續透過我們的基金結構進行投資貨幣化。

And as we reach the end of investment cycles and fully monetize and become in a position to start returning capital to our investors, then you'll see the incentive fees start to come through our financials as well.

當我們到達投資週期的末尾並完全貨幣化並開始向投資者返還資本時，您也會看到激勵費用也開始透過我們的財務數據體現。

Our incentive fees up sharply on a year over year basis.

我們的獎勵費用較去年同期大幅上漲。

But they're still short of our billion dollar annual target.

但它們仍低於我們十億美元的年度目標。

Our expectation is that we will continue to make progress towards that target over the course of 2025.

我們的期望是，我們將在 2025 年繼續朝著這一目標取得進展。

The extent of that progress obviously will be a function of the environment, but we should continue to make progress towards the billion dollar that target.

進展的程度顯然將取決於環境，但我們應該繼續朝著十億美元的目標取得進展。

Given where we sit in the outlook that we have.

鑑於我們對前景的看法。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農，傑弗里斯。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

I wanted to follow up on the alternatives.

我想跟進替代方案。

You talked about consistent levels of fundraising.

您談到了持續的籌款水平。

As you look at '25, could you maybe talk to the asset classes or the funds that you think will drive the that growth going forward and how the fees may be different?

當您審視 25 年時，您能否談談您認為將推動未來成長的資產類別或基金以及費用可能有何不同？

Or are they the same as kind of what's in the ground of your existing book of alternatives today?

或者它們與您今天現有的替代品書中的內容相同嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So given the breadth of our alternatives platform, the fundraising has come in from a number of different channels have been very diversified and I think that's one of the strengths of our platform is one of the ways it positions us as one of the top five alternative players in the market.

因此，考慮到我們的另類平台的廣度，籌款來自許多不同的管道，而且非常多元化，我認為這是我們平台的優勢之一，也是它將我們定位為前五名另類之一的方式之一市場中的參與者。

So as we move forward, we would continue to expect to raise money across the various asset classes within our alternatives platform.

因此，隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續期望在我們的另類平台內的各種資產類別中籌集資金。

We are not seeing significant fee compression if you will.

如果您願意的話，我們不會看到顯著的費用壓縮。

That's a question that we get in on the alt side.

這是我們從另一個角度提出的問題。

So we'd expect to be raising the same type of funds.

因此，我們預計將籌集相同類型的資金。

With roughly the same fee structure, there obviously could be variations in mix and so different types of alts products sourced through different channels, bring with them different fees so that can change, average effective fees in the alt space.

在費用結構大致相同的情況下，顯然混合方式可能會有所不同，因此透過不同管道採購的不同類型的替代產品會帶來不同的費用，從而可以改變替代空間中的平均有效費用。

But in terms of our strategy, continue to raise a diversified suite of funds, expect a reasonably consistent volume.

但就我們的策略而言，持續籌集多元化的資金組合，預計數量相當穩定。

And don't expect, fees per type of of origination activity to meaningfully change.

並且不要指望每種類型的發起活動的費用會發生有意義的變化。

Understood.

明白了。

And then just as a follow up, both asset and wealth management, revenues on the management fee side saw good growth year-over-year, both for the year and the fourth quarter, there was a little bit higher growth and wealth both in the fourth quarter in the year.

接下來，無論是資產管理還是財富管理，管理費方面的收入同比都出現了良好的增長，無論是今年還是第四季度，無論是資產還是財富管理，管理費方面的收入都出現了較高的成長和財富。

I guess, as you look at those businesses going forward, do you expect to see a divergence in either of those segments or do you think that consistently they will both grow at similar levels?

我想，當您展望這些業務的未來時，您是否預計這些細分市場中的任何一個都會出現差異，或者您是否認為它們都會持續以相似的水平增長？

So look, there are obviously different idiosyncratic factors within both the asset management and the wealth management sectors.

如此看來，資產管理和財富管理領域都存在著明顯不同的特質因素。

We obviously like the optionality to continue to raise and grow our management fees across both of those sub segments.

我們顯然喜歡繼續提高和增加這兩個細分市場的管理費的選擇。

And we underwrite our expectation that we will continue to grow AWM management, other fees, high single digits over the next several years.

我們期望在未來幾年內我們將繼續增加 AWM 管理費和其他費用，達到高個位數。

We've obviously outpaced that recently, but we sort of would re underwrite our forward growth expectations to be high single digits.

我們最近顯然已經超過了這一水平，但我們將重新將我們的未來成長預期維持在高個位數。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, Denis and David.

嗨，丹尼斯和大衛。

David or Dennis, can you share with us -- I mean, the outlook, many of us, you folks included, I think it looks very positive for the capital markets businesses, the economy, et cetera.

大衛或丹尼斯，你能和我們分享一下嗎——我的意思是，我們很多人，包括你們在內，我認為這對資本市場業務、經濟等來說看起來非常積極。

And aside from the geopolitical risks that are obvious to all of us, can you guys give us two or three risks, where could derail this shared optimism we have for the outlook for the business?

除了我們所有人都顯而易見的地緣政治風險之外，你們能給我們介紹兩三個風險嗎？

I mean, the world -- I mean, I appreciate the question, right?

我的意思是，世界——我的意思是，我很欣賞這個問題，對吧？

The world is a complicated place and there's a lot going on in the world, markets reacting can change their sentiments, very, very quickly.

世界是一個複雜的地方，世界上正在發生很多事情，市場的反應可以非常非常快速地改變他們的情緒。

We obviously have a new administration with that change, a bunch of things people are talking about that, have people excited for a business environment, a lower regulatory touch environment, et cetera.

顯然，我們有了一個新的政府來進行這項變革，人們正在談論很多事情，讓人們對商業環境、較低的監管接觸環境等感到興奮。

But at the same point, there are a broad array of policy initiatives that can all have an impact on market sentiment and the direction of travel.

但同時，一系列廣泛的政策措施都可能對市場情緒和發展方向產生影響。

And I'd say at the moment there's uncertainty when you look broadly across immigration policy, trade policy, tax policy, energy policy, we'll get more clarity around all of this.

我想說，目前，當你廣泛審視移民政策、貿易政策、稅收政策、能源政策時，就存在不確定性，我們將在所有這些方面變得更加清晰。

But there are different outcomes.

但也有不同的結果。

There can be sentiment shifts.

情緒可能會轉變。

Plus there's a lot going on in the world and there are all sorts of significant risks.

此外，世界上正在發生很多事情，並且存在各種重大風險。

We spend a lot of time thinking about.

我們花了很多時間去思考。

We think about cyber risk a lot.

我們經常思考網路風險。

It's something we haven't talked about a while on this call.

我們在這次電話會議上已經有一段時間沒有討論過這個問題了。

So the world is a complicated place.

所以世界是一個複雜的地方。

Fundamentally at our core risk managers.

從根本上來說是我們的核心風險經理。

We try to think about these things, make sure the firm is resilient and well positioned to navigate them.

我們嘗試考慮這些事情，確保公司具有彈性並且能夠很好地應對這些問題。

And I would say at the moment, the environment is quite construct, the economy in the US is quite constructive still.

我想說，目前的環境是相當建設性的，美國的經濟仍然是相當建設性的。

But it's a complicated world and I think we all should be on our toes and be prepared for the unexpected.

但這是一個複雜的世界，我認為我們都應該保持警惕，為意外情況做好準備。

Because I tell you every single year, the consensus that that people tell me in January, the year turns out to be different than the consensus.

因為我每年都會告訴你，人們在一月告訴我的共識，這一年的結果與共識不同。

And I'm sure, this year, there'll be some surprises to the ups and there'll be some surprises to the downs as there always are.

我確信，今年，一如既往，漲勢中會有一些驚喜，跌勢中也會有一些驚喜。

Yeah.

是的。

No, I agree with that.

不，我同意這一點。

That's for sure.

這是肯定的。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

And then coming back to, obviously you guys have been investing heavily in technology for years and in driving those operating efficiencies in slide 9, you talk about them, particularly in automation and then you talk about leveraging the AI solutions.

然後回過頭來，顯然你們多年來一直在技術上進行大量投資，並在幻燈片 9 中提高營運效率，你們談論了它們，特別是在自動化方面，然後你們談論了利用人工智慧解決方案。

As outsiders, when do you think we'll be able to see the success that you're having with AI.

身為局外人，您認為我們什麼時候才能看到您在人工智慧方面的成功？

I know there's probably early successes already, but will it become a time when we'll be able to say, wow, earnings are actually favorably impacted by X percent because of this success in the AI implementation that you've done.

我知道可能已經取得了早期的成功，但是到了那時我們會不會說，哇，由於你們在人工智慧實施方面取得的成功，收入實際上受到了 X% 的有利影響。

We are having early success and this firm is zealously focused on its expense base and creating efficiencies that give us the capacity to invest in our franchise and grow our client franchise.

我們正在取得早期成功，該公司熱衷於其費用基礎和創造效率，使我們有能力投資我們的特許經營權並擴大我們的客戶特許經營權。

Can we get to a point where you can say it's affected by this percent?

我們可以說它受到這個百分比的影響嗎？

I don't necessarily think that's the way to think about it.

我不一定認為這就是思考問題的方式。

We're going to continue to use technology to make the firm more productive.

我們將繼續利用科技來提高公司的生產力。

We're going to continue to scale and create, automation of platforms that allow us to deploy resources in other places that allow us to serve our clients better and grow our franchise and that's something and we're going to continue to be operationally very focused on.

我們將繼續擴展和創建平台自動化，使我們能夠在其他地方部署資源，使我們能夠更好地為客戶服務並擴大我們的特許經營權，這就是我們將繼續在運營上非常專注的地方。

We've made good progress on it.

我們已經在這方面取得了良好進展。

But we have -- we see, we have Dennis framed this in his comments and I hinted at it too.

但我們——我們看到，我們讓丹尼斯在他的評論中闡述了這一點，我也暗示了這一點。

We see lots of opportunities to continue to do that in the coming years.

我們看到未來幾年有很多機會繼續這樣做。

And I think the way that investors should look at it and think about it.

我認為投資者應該如何看待和思考它。

It's that focus on that and the capacity it creates allows us to scale investments that can continue to strengthen the franchise.

正是對這一點的關注以及它所創造的能力使我們能夠擴大投資規模，從而繼續加強特許經營權。

And so that's the way I think we think about it and we try to operate.

所以我認為這就是我們思考和嘗試運作的方式。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, there are no further questions.

目前，沒有其他問題了。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，高盛 2024 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。