高盛 (GS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I'll be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎大家參加高盛2025年第二季財報電話會議。

On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer. The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of the Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. This audio cast is copyrighted material of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced, or rebroadcast without consent.

我將代表高盛在電話會議上開始以下免責聲明。收益報告可在高盛網站的投資者關係頁面上找到，其中包含前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則指標的資訊。此音訊廣播為高盛集團 (Goldman Sachs Group Inc.) 的版權資料，未經同意不得複製、影印或轉播。

This call is being recorded today, July 16, 2025. I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon, and Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman. Thank you. Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

本次通話於今天（2025 年 7 月 16 日）錄製。現在我將電話轉給董事長兼執行長戴維·所羅門 (David Solomon) 和財務長丹尼斯·科爾曼 (Denis Coleman)。謝謝。所羅門先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝大家的參與。

We delivered a strong performance in the second quarter, generating net revenues of $14.6 billion, earnings per share of $10.91, and an ROE of 12.8%, resulting in an ROE of 14.8% for the first half of the year. Amid shifting market dynamics, we remained relentlessly focused on serving our clients with excellence.

我們在第二季表現強勁，淨收入達 146 億美元，每股收益 10.91 美元，股本回報率 (ROE) 達 12.8%，使得上半年的股本回報率 (ROE) 達 14.8%。在不斷變化的市場動態中，我們始終堅持不懈地專注於為客戶提供卓越的服務。

These results are a testament to our best-in class-talent, culture of collaboration, and differentiated business across Investment Banking, Financing, Risk Intermediation, and Asset and Wealth Management. Our global client franchise has never been stronger, and I'm proud of how we've helped our clients navigate periods of heightened uncertainty.

這些結果證明了我們擁有一流的人才、協作文化以及投資銀行、融資、風險中介以及資產和財富管理領域的差異化業務。我們的全球客戶特許經營權從未如此強大，我為我們如何幫助客戶度過高度不確定的時期而感到自豪。

In Investment Banking, clients continue to turn to our number one M&A franchise for their most consequential transactions. The dealmaking environment has been remarkably resilient. While activity was slower in the first half of the quarter, announced M&A volumes for the year-to-date are 30% higher year-over-year and 15% greater than the comparable five-year average.

在投資銀行業務中，客戶繼續依靠我們排名第一的併購特許經營權來完成他們最重要的交易。交易環境一直都非常有彈性。儘管本季上半段的活動有所放緩，但今年迄今宣布的併購交易量年增 30%，比五年平均高出 15%。

A narrowed range of outcomes on trade and the overall economy has helped CEO confidence and increased their willingness to transact. We've seen a pick-up in momentum with both strategic and sponsor clients as exemplified by NRG Energy's $12 billion portfolio acquisition from LS Power, and Salesforce's $8 billion acquisition of Informatica.

貿易和整體經濟結果範圍的縮小有助於增強執行長的信心並提高他們的交易意願。我們看到策略客戶和贊助客戶的發展勢頭都在回升，例如 NRG Energy 以 120 億美元收購 LS Power 的投資組合，以及 Salesforce 以 80 億美元收購 Informatica。

Capital markets activity has also accelerated. During the quarter, we priced 11 IPOs for clients around the globe, including Circle, Chime, eToro, and HDB Financial Services, which have performed well on the secondary market.

資本市場活動也加速。本季度，我們為全球客戶定價了 11 個 IPO，其中包括 Circle、Chime、eToro 和 HDB Financial Services，這些公司在二級市場上表現良好。

Though uncertainty could persist in some pockets, particularly in industries highly sensitive to trade policy. We are optimistic on the overall investment banking outlook, and we are incredibly well positioned to assist clients in executing on their strategic ambitions.

但某些領域仍可能存在不確定性，尤其是對貿易政策高度敏感的產業。我們對整體投資銀行前景持樂觀態度，我們完全有能力協助客戶實現其策略抱負。

Our client engagement continues to be elevated, and we're seeing it in our backlog, which rose for a fifth consecutive quarter driven by Advisory. Importantly, our Advisory backlog was up significantly versus 2024 year-end levels.

我們的客戶參與度持續提升，這一點從我們的積壓訂單中就可以看出來，在諮詢業務的推動下，我們的積壓訂單連續第五個季度上漲。重要的是，我們的諮詢積壓訂單與 2024 年底水準相比大幅增加。

We've also remained active across our leading FICC and Equities businesses, which yet again, produced very strong results in the quarter as policy uncertainty drove clients to reposition portfolios and recalibrate risks across asset classes. Our strong performance goes beyond the supportive opportunity set. We are also benefiting from successful multi-year execution across our strategic priorities of driving growth in financing, and prudently maximizing wallet share, which have clearly added further ballast to our performance.

我們也持續活躍於領先的 FICC 和股票業務，由於政策不確定性促使客戶重新配置投資組合並重新調整跨資產類別的風險，這些業務在本季度再次取得了非常強勁的業績。我們的強勁表現超越了支持性機會。我們也受惠於多年來成功執行的各項策略重點，包括推動融資成長和審慎地最大化錢包份額，這顯然為我們的業績增添了進一步的穩定力。

This quarter, both our financing businesses hit a revenue record as we continue to deploy resources to grow FICC financing and bolster our leading position in Equities Financing. At the same time, we remain laser focused on wallet share, and we now rank in the top three with 125 of the top 150 clients globally, up from 77 in 2019. Importantly, these hard-won share gains have contributed to the demonstrated resilience of these diversified businesses.

本季度，我們兩項融資業務的收入均創下紀錄，因為我們繼續部署資源以增加 FICC 融資並鞏固我們在股權融資方面的領先地位。同時，我們仍然專注於錢包份額，目前我們在全球前 150 名客戶中擁有 125 名客戶，排名前三，高於 2019 年的 77 名。重要的是，這些來之不易的份額成長增強了這些多元化業務的韌性。

In Asset and Wealth Management, we continue to have momentum in alternatives where we raised $18 billion this quarter driven by demand for flagship funds across strategies, including secondaries, hybrid capital, and growth equity. Wealth Management client assets rose to a record $1.7 trillion and we are making solid progress on increasing lending to our ultra-high net worth clients with loan balances of $42 billion.

在資產和財富管理方面，我們繼續在另類投資領域保持成長勢頭，本季我們籌集了 180 億美元，這得益於二級市場、混合資本和成長型股權等各種策略的旗艦基金的需求。財富管理客戶資產增至創紀錄的 1.7 兆美元，我們在增加對超高淨值客戶的貸款方面取得了穩步進展，貸款餘額已達 420 億美元。

All in, our assets under supervision rose to a new record of $3.3 trillion, representing our 30th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows. There are very few firms with this track record, and it is evident that clients continue to turn to us for our investment performance, the quality of our advice, and the breadth of our offering. From here, we see further opportunities across alternatives, Wealth Management, and Solutions, which will fuel growth and more durable revenues across our platform.

總體而言，我們的監管資產增至 3.3 兆美元的新高，這是我們連續第 30 個季度實現長期收費淨流入。擁有如此佳績的公司寥寥無幾，但顯然，客戶之所以繼續選擇我們，是因為我們的投資業績、優質的諮詢服務以及廣泛的產品範圍。從這裡，我們看到了替代品、財富管理和解決方案的更多機會，這將推動我們平台的成長和更持久的收入。

As we continue to invest in further strengthening and growing our franchise, I am encouraged by the widespread progress being made in AI, which is quickly developing into an economic force that will permeate every industry. The accelerated innovation and disruption from AI is set to create significant demand-related infrastructure and financing needs, which will drive activity across our franchise. In light of the formation of the Capital Solutions Group, we've never been better positioned to meet this demand.

隨著我們繼續投資進一步加強和發展我們的特許經營權，我對人工智慧所取得的廣泛進步感到鼓舞，它正在迅速發展成為一種滲透到每個行業的經濟力量。人工智慧帶來的加速創新和顛覆將創造與需求相關的大量基礎設施和融資需求，這將推動我們整個特許經營的活動。鑑於資本解決方案集團的成立，我們比以往任何時候都更有能力滿足這項需求。

With regards to our own operations, we are currently investing in a number of use cases across the firm to transform the way our people work. Last month, we rolled out our natural language GS AI assistant to the entire firm, the first generative AI powered tool to reach this scale, allowing for safe, secure, and responsible access to firm approved external large language models.

就我們自己的營運而言，我們目前正在整個公司範圍內投資一些用例，以改變員工的工作方式。上個月，我們向整個公司推出了自然語言 GS AI 助手，這是第一個達到這種規模的生成 AI 驅動工具，可以安全、可靠且負責任地存取公司批准的外部大型語言模型。

We recently began collaborating with Cognition Labs and are piloting the usage of Devin, an autonomous generative AI agent designed to transform the way we build, maintain, and develop software with risk oversight and supervision of our engineers. We will be deploying these agentic AI developers to prioritize use cases, which we believe will significantly enhance velocity, transform our capabilities, and drive efficiency.

我們最近開始與 Cognition Labs 合作，並正在試用 Devin，這是一種自主生成 AI 代理，旨在透過風險監督和對工程師的監督來改變我們構建、維護和開發軟體的方式。我們將部署這些代理 AI 開發人員來確定用例的優先級，我們相信這將顯著提高速度、轉變我們的能力並提高效率。

As I discussed in our strategic update in January, operating efficiently is one of our key strategic objectives. And these efforts will allow us to continue to enhance the client experience while improving productivity.

正如我在一月份的策略更新中所討論的那樣，高效營運是我們的關鍵策略目標之一。這些努力將使我們能夠在提高生產力的同時繼續增強客戶體驗。

Before I turn it over to Denis, I want to emphasize the significant progress we've made on all our strategic objectives. The investment we've made to strengthen and grow our global client franchise, including our emphasis on scaling capital light businesses, have materially enhanced the resilience of our firm.

在將麥克風交給丹尼斯之前，我想強調我們在所有策略目標上取得的重大進展。我們為加強和發展全球客戶特許經營權而進行的投資，包括我們強調擴大輕資本業務，大大增強了我們公司的韌性。

I am pleased to see these results -- I'm pleased to see the results of these multi-year efforts reflected in this year's CCAR stress test, which drove a significant improvement in our expected stress capital buffer to 3.4%. This increased capital flexibility will allow us to prioritize deploying resources to support our client needs and further grow our world-class businesses.

我很高興看到這些結果——我很高興看到這些多年努力的成果反映在今年的 CCAR 壓力測試中，這推動我們預期的壓力資本緩衝顯著提高到 3.4%。資本靈活性的增強將使我們能夠優先部署資源來支援客戶需求並進一步發展我們的世界級業務。

At the same time, we are committed to returning capital to the shareholders, including delivering a sustainable and growing dividend. Our Board approved a 33% increase in our quarterly dividend of $4 a share, which underscores our confidence in the durability of our franchise. Since 2018, we've increased our quarterly dividend by 400%.

同時，我們致力於向股東返還資本，包括提供可持續成長的股利。我們的董事會批准將季度股息提高 33% 至每股 4 美元，這凸顯了我們對特許經營持久性的信心。自 2018 年以來，我們已將季度股息提高了 400%。

More broadly, we are encouraged by recent statements from regulators that a holistic review of the regulatory and capital regime for the financial services industry is warranted. For example, last month's proposal on the recalibration of the enhanced SLR is a constructive step to returning the leverage requirement back to its intended purpose as a backstop measure.

更廣泛地說，監管機構最近發表的聲明令我們感到鼓舞，他們認為有必要對金融服務業的監管和資本製度進行全面審查。例如，上個月關於重新調整增強型單邊匯率的提議是將槓桿要求恢復到其作為支持措施的預期目的的建設性一步。

A more balanced regulatory backdrop will foster a more efficient financial system that will support growth and competitiveness of the US economy. We look forward to further progress and we will continue to actively engage with our regulators and government officials on this front.

更均衡的監管環境將促進更有效率的金融體系，進而支持美國經濟的成長和競爭力。我們期待取得進一步的進展，並將繼續積極與我們的監管機構和政府官員就此進行合作。

In closing, I want to recognize that despite the resilient global economy and market backdrop, much remains uncertain. Geopolitical concerns have intensified in many regions, most notably in the Middle East; a number of trade agreements have yet to materialize; and the ultimate impact on growth from higher tariffs is yet unknown.

最後，我想承認，儘管全球經濟和市場背景具有韌性，但仍有許多不確定因素。許多地區的地緣政治擔憂加劇，尤其是在中東；一些貿易協定尚未實現；而提高關稅對經濟成長的最終影響尚不清楚。

At the moment, there's a sense that things are moving forward constructively, but developments rarely unfold in a straight line. With this in mind, we remain very focused on risk discipline, but we won't always get it right.

目前，人們感覺事情正在朝著建設性的方向發展，但事態發展很少是直線性的。考慮到這一點，我們仍然非常注重風險紀律，但我們並不總是能做到正確。

I'm pleased with how our people harnessed the power of One Goldman Sachs to help our clients navigate the fast-evolving operating backdrop. I feel very confident about the forward trajectory of Goldman Sachs, and as I said at the outset, our leading franchises have never been better positioned to support our clients, and we will continue to deliver returns for our shareholders.

我很高興看到我們的員工能夠利用「一個高盛」的力量來幫助我們的客戶應對快速變化的營運環境。我對高盛的未來發展軌跡充滿信心，正如我在一開始所說的，我們領先的特許經營業務從未像現在這樣能夠更好地支持我們的客戶，我們將繼續為股東帶來回報。

We'll now turn it over to Denis to cover our financial results for the quarter.

現在我們將把時間交給丹尼斯來介紹本季的財務表現。

Thank you, David. Good morning. Let's start with our results on page 1 of the presentation. In the second quarter, we generated net revenues of $14.6 billion, earnings per share of $10.91, and an ROE of 12.8%. We provide details on selected items in the bottom table, which in total reduced our EPS by $0.33, and our ROE by 40 basis points.

謝謝你，大衛。早安.讓我們從簡報第 1 頁的結果開始。第二季度，我們的淨收入為 146 億美元，每股收益為 10.91 美元，淨資產收益率為 12.8%。我們在下表中提供了選定項目的詳細信息，這些項目總共使我們的每股收益減少了 0.33 美元，淨資產收益率減少了 40 個基點。

Let's turn to performance by segment, starting on page 3. Global Banking and Markets produced revenues of $10.1 billion in the quarter, with an ROE for the first half of nearly 18%.

讓我們從第 3 頁開始查看各部分的表現。全球銀行和市場業務本季實現收入 101 億美元，上半年淨資產收益率接近 18%。

Turning to page 4, Advisory revenues of $1.2 billion rose 71% versus a year ago, reflecting strength in the Americas and EMEA. For the year-to-date, we remain number one in the league tables for M&A with a lead of roughly $85 billion in announced volume and $145 billion in completed volumes versus our next closest peer.

翻到第 4 頁，諮詢收入為 12 億美元，較去年同期成長 71%，反映出美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的強勁表現。今年迄今為止，我們在併購排行榜上仍然位居第一，與排名第二的競爭對手相比，我們的宣布交易量領先約 850 億美元，完成交易量領先 1,450 億美元。

Equity underwriting revenues of $428 million were essentially flat year-over-year, while debt underwriting revenues of $589 million fell 5% amid lower leverage finance activity. Year-to-date, we ranked second in equity and equity-related underwriting, and second in both high-yield debt underwriting and leveraged lending.

股票承銷收入為 4.28 億美元，與去年同期基本持平，而債務承銷收入為 5.89 億美元，由於槓桿融資活動減少而下降 5%。年初至今，我們在股票和股票相關承銷方面排名第二，在高收益債務承銷和槓桿貸款方面均排名第二。

Across Investment Banking, our backlog rose sequentially for a fifth quarter, even with strong realizations and remains notably higher versus 2024 year-end levels. FICC net revenues were $3.5 billion in the quarter, up 9% year-over-year.

在整個投資銀行業務中，即使實現了強勁的成長，我們的積壓訂單量仍連續第五個季度上升，並且仍然明顯高於 2024 年年底的水平。本季 FICC 淨收入為 35 億美元，年增 9%。

Intermediation results were driven by higher client activity in currencies, credit, and interest rate products, partially offset by lower results in mortgages and commodities. Record fixed financing revenues of $1 billion were driven by strong performance in mortgages and structured lending.

中介業務績效的成長得益於貨幣、信貸和利率產品領域客戶活動的增加，但被抵押貸款和大宗商品領域業績的下降部分抵消。創紀錄的 10 億美元固定融資收入得益於抵押貸款和結構性貸款的強勁表現。

Equity's net revenues were a record $4.3 billion in the quarter. Equities intermediation revenues of $2.6 billion rose 45% year-over-year, driven by strong performance across cash and derivatives as clients were active in repositioning their portfolios.

本季度，Equity 的淨收入達到創紀錄的 43 億美元。股票中介收入達 26 億美元，年增 45%，這得益於客戶積極重新配置投資組合，現金和衍生性商品表現強勁。

Record equity financing revenues of $1.7 billion were 23% higher year-over-year on better portfolio financing results and amid record average prime balances for the quarter. While balances declined modestly in early April, clients quickly re-levered, though net leverage overall remains at historically moderate levels.

創紀錄的 17 億美元股權融資收入比去年同期高出 23%，這得益於更好的投資組合融資結果以及本季創紀錄的平均優惠餘額。儘管 4 月初餘額略有下降，但客戶很快又重新利用了槓桿，不過淨槓桿率總體仍處於歷史適中水平。

We continue to maintain robust risk discipline around our client financing portfolios. Total financing revenues of $2.8 billion rose 23% versus the prior year, reaching a new record for a sixth consecutive quarter, now comprising over one-third of overall FICC and equities revenues.

我們持續對客戶融資組合保持嚴格的風險紀律。總融資收入為 28 億美元，較上年增長 23%，連續第六個季度創下新高，目前佔 FICC 和股票總收入的三分之一以上。

Let's turn to page 5. Asset and Wealth Management revenues were $3.8 billion. Management and other fees were up 11% year-over-year to $2.8 billion on higher average assets under supervision.

讓我們翻到第 5 頁。資產和財富管理收入為 38 億美元。由於監管的平均資產增加，管理費和其他費用年增 11%，達到 28 億美元。

Incentive fees were $102 million. We expect to make further progress on our target of $1 billion in annual incentive fees over the medium-term, with fees ramping up more materially in 2026 and 2027 as we continue to deploy and harvest funds.

獎勵費用為1.02億美元。我們預計，中期而言，我們將進一步實現每年 10 億美元的激勵費用目標，隨著我們繼續部署和收穫資金，2026 年和 2027 年的費用將大幅增加。

Private banking and lending revenues were $789 million up 12% year-over-year on higher results from lending and deposits related to our ultra-high net worth clients. In aggregate, our more durable revenues of $3.6 billion across management and other fees, and private banking and lending were a record as we continue to invest in the growth of these businesses.

私人銀行和貸款收入為 7.89 億美元，年增 12%，這得益於我們超高淨值客戶相關的貸款和存款業績成長。總體而言，隨著我們繼續投資於這些業務的成長，我們在管理費和其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款方面的更持久的收入達到了 36 億美元，創下了歷史新高。

Revenues from equity investments and debt investments total $82 million. Within equity investments, we saw modest net losses in our private portfolio, driven by markdowns in relation to certain real estate positions. Given the more challenging harvesting environment, we expect results in the second half of 2025 to be more muted relative to our medium-term run rate expectations.

股權投資和債務投資的收入總計 8,200 萬美元。在股權投資方面，我們的私人投資組合出現了適度的淨虧損，這是由於某些房地產部位的降價所致。鑑於收穫環境更具挑戰性，我們預計 2025 年下半年的業績相對於我們的中期運行率預期將更加低迷。

In the AWM segment, we generated a 22% pre-tax margin and roughly 9% ROE in the first half of the year. Excluding the impact of historical principal investments and it's $3.8 billion of average attributed equity; our pre-tax margin and ROE would have each been approximately 3 percentage points higher.

在AWM部門，我們在今年上半年實現了22%的稅前利潤率和約9%的ROE。排除歷史本金投資及其 38 億美元平均歸屬權益的影響，我們的稅前利潤率和 ROE 將分別高出約 3 個百分點。

Now moving to page 6. Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $3.3 trillion, up sequentially on $115 billion of market appreciation. As well as $17 billion of long-term net inflows in alternatives and equity, representing our 30th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows.

現在轉到第 6 頁。本季末，監管總資產達到創紀錄的 3.3 兆美元，季增，市場增值 1,150 億美元。以及另類投資和股票的 170 億美元長期淨流入，這是我們連續第 30 個季度實現長期費用型淨流入。

Turning to page 7 on Alternatives. Alternative assets under supervision totaled $355 billion at the end of the second quarter, driving $589 million in management and other fees. Gross third party alternatives fundraising was $18 billion in the quarter, bringing year-to-date fundraising to $37 billion. We continue to expect fundraising to be in line with recent years.

翻到第 7 頁「替代方案」。截至第二季末，監管的另類資產總額為 3,550 億美元，帶來 5.89 億美元的管理費和其他費用。本季第三人另類融資總額為 180 億美元，年初至今融資總額達 370 億美元。我們仍預期募款狀況將與近年來保持一致。

On page 9, firm-wide net interest income was $3.1 billion in the second quarter, up subsequentially on an increase in interest earning assets. Our total loan portfolio at quarter-end was $217 billion, up first of the first quarter, primarily reflecting higher other collateralized lending. Our provision for credit losses of $384 million primarily reflects charge-offs in our credit card portfolio, as well as modest levels of growth across both the card and wholesale portfolios.

第 9 頁顯示，第二季全公司淨利息收入為 31 億美元，由於生息資產的增加而隨之增加。截至季末，我們的貸款總額為 2,170 億美元，較第一季初成長，主要反映了其他抵押貸款的增加。我們提列的 3.84 億美元信貸損失準備金主要反映了我們信用卡投資組合的沖銷，以及信用卡和批發投資組合的適度增長。

Turning to expenses on page 10. Total quarterly operating expenses were $9.2 billion. Our year-to-date compensation ratio net of provisions remained at 33% and is inclusive of roughly $140 million in severance costs. Quarterly non-compensation expenses of $4.6 billion included approximately $100 million of CIE impairments and rose 6% year-over-year, driven by higher transaction-based expenses.

翻到第 10 頁的費用。季度總營運費用為 92 億美元。我們今年迄今的薪資比率扣除撥備後仍維持在 33%，其中包括約 1.4 億美元的遣散費。季度非薪酬支出為 46 億美元，其中包括約 1 億美元的 CIE 減值，年增 6%，這主要是由於交易費用增加所致。

Our effective tax rate for the first half of 2025 was 20.2%. For the full year, we expect a tax rate of approximately 22%.

我們 2025 年上半年的有效稅率為 20.2%。我們預計全年稅率約為 22%。

Next, capital on slide 11. In the quarter we returned $4 billion to shareholders, including common stock dividends of $957 million and common stock repurchases of $3 billion. Our common equity tier 1 ratio was 14.5% at the end of the second quarter under the standardized approach. While the NPR on CCAR averaging is still outstanding, under the current regulatory framework, our new CET1 requirement will be 10.9% as of October 1.

接下來是第 11 張投影片上的資本。本季我們向股東返還了 40 億美元，其中包括 9.57 億美元的普通股股息和 30 億美元的普通股回購。根據標準化方法，我們第二季末的普通股一級資本適足率為 14.5%。雖然 CCAR 平均值的 NPR 仍未滿足，但根據現行監管框架，自 10 月 1 日起，我們的新 CET1 要求將為 10.9%。

Earlier this year, our Board authorized a multi-year share repurchase program of up to $40 billion, providing us increased capital management flexibility. As David mentioned, our Board also approved a 33% increase in our quarterly dividend of $4 per share beginning in the third quarter, a reflection of our priority to pay our shareholders a sustainable growing dividend and our confidence in the increasing durability of our firm.

今年早些時候，我們的董事會批准了一項高達 400 億美元的多年期股票回購計劃，為我們提供了更大的資本管理靈活性。正如戴維所提到的，我們的董事會還批准從第三季度開始將季度股息提高 33% 至每股 4 美元，這反映了我們優先向股東支付可持續增長的股息，以及我們對公司日益增強的持久性的信心。

In conclusion, this quarter has once again demonstrated the power and resilience of our leading franchises. We remain incredibly well positioned to support our clients as they navigate the complex operating backdrop, but we are confident that we will continue to deliver for shareholders.

總而言之，本季再次證明了我們領先特許經營權的實力和韌性。我們仍然能夠為客戶提供極為有利的支持，幫助他們應對複雜的營運環境，但我們有信心繼續為股東帶來回報。

With that, we will now open up the line for questions.

現在，我們將開放提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示） Glenn Schorr，Evercore ISI。

Hi, thank you. So you do a very good job of growing your financing business and expanding at the IB and trading, and it hasn't consumed that much capital. So we've been asking for years, what are you going to do with all this capital if you do get reg reform?

你好，謝謝。因此，您在發展融資業務、擴大 IB 和交易方面做得非常好，而且沒有消耗那麼多資本。所以多年來我們一直在問，如果你們真的進行了監管改革，你們要如何處理這些資本？

Well, here we are. You have a 10.9%. And you have a lot more than that and you're making a ton of money. So the -- my blunt question is what do you do with all this excess capital now that you have it? Do you have places that you can allocate what is now large amounts of excess capital organically?

嗯，我們到了。你有 10.9%。但你擁有的遠不止這些，你還賺了很多錢。所以——我的直截了當的問題是，既然您擁有了這些過剩資本，您會如何處理它們？您是否有地方可以有機地分配現在大量的過剩資本？

Yeah, thanks for the question, Glenn. And I'll start and Denis might add a few things on a more granular basis. But first of all, our capital methodology does not change with the capital regime adjusting based on what's going on regulatorily.

是的，謝謝你的提問，格倫。我會開始，丹尼斯可能會更詳細地添加一些內容。但首先，我們的資本方法不會隨著資本製度根據監管情況的調整而改變。

We start through a lens that if we've got capital available to deploy toward our client franchise to produce accretive returns and to support client activity, that's going to be the first place that we're going to go. Given the way things are shifting, we are seeing some opportunities for deployment.

我們首先考慮的是，如果我們有可用的資本來部署到我們的客戶特許經營中以產生增值回報並支持客戶活動，那麼這將是我們首先要去的地方。鑑於事態的變化，我們看到了一些部署機會。

Some of that comes from the structure of the capital stack, and some of that comes from the fact that activity is picking up, particularly in M&A and financing in places where we haven't had to put that much capital forward. So we do see good opportunities in the business to deploy. That will be our first and primary focus.

部分原因在於資本結構，部分原因在於活動正在回暖，特別是在我們不必投入那麼多資本的領域的併購和融資。因此，我們確實看到了業務部署的良好機會。這將是我們的首要關注點。

After that, we will continue to look for ways to return capital. We've been committed to growing sustainably and meaningfully increasing our dividends as we've had more confidence in the durability of the business, and we'll continue to return capital.

此後，我們將繼續尋找回籠資本的方法。我們一直致力於永續發展和大幅增加股息，因為我們對業務的持久性更有信心，我們將繼續返還資本。

That continues to be our mantra around this. And we think there are opportunities for us to continue to deploy and grow the business. That's where our primary focus will be.

這仍然是我們的座右銘。我們認為我們有機會繼續部署和發展業務。這就是我們主要關注的重點。

(technical difficulty) I just want to add. Okay. And then maybe we could circle the square. You talked about a challenging harvesting environment, yet at the same time, we have eyes and we see big booming investment banking pipelines, and growing M&A, and performing -- IPOs performing well. So what's holding up the -- what's different about the historical principal investments that we want to monetize amidst a good banking backdrop?

（技術難度）我只是想補充一下。好的。然後我們也許可以繞著廣場轉一圈。您談到了充滿挑戰的收穫環境，但同時，我們也看到投資銀行管道蓬勃發展、併購活動不斷增長，而且 IPO 表現良好。那麼，是什麼阻礙了我們──在良好的銀行環境下，我們想要貨幣化的歷史本金投資有什麼不同？

Sure, Glenn, it's Denis. Thanks for that question.

當然，格倫，我是丹尼斯。謝謝你的提問。

So I think we have both of those things happening at the same time. We have elevated asset prices. We have improving credit markets. We have increased opportunity for companies to access the IPO markets. We've seen that start to accelerate in the second quarter.

所以我認為這兩件事是同時發生的。我們提高了資產價格。我們的信貸市場正在不斷改善。我們為企業進入IPO市場提供了更多機會。我們看到這一趨勢在第二季開始加速。

But it also is the case that it has not been a robust environment for the harvesting, particularly for private equity type portfolio assets. So in the case of our portfolio, we remain committed to reducing those historical principal investments over time.

但事實上，目前的環境並不適合進行資產收購，特別是私募股權類型的投資組合資產。因此，就我們的投資組合而言，我們仍然致力於隨著時間的推移減少這些歷史本金投資。

And we continue to make steady progress. We reduced it by about 10% in the quarter. It now stands at about $8 billion.

我們將繼續穩步前進。本季我們將其減少了約 10%。目前該數字約為80億美元。

And as market conditions continue to persist and they open up, that should provide us with incremental opportunities. And we'll continue to reduce the other components of our historical principal investments in line with our strategy.

隨著市場條件持續存在並開放，這將為我們提供增量機會。我們將根據我們的策略繼續減少歷史本金投資的其他部分。

The only thing, Glenn, I just want to add to that we're committed. This is now a small portfolio, but you would -- it's common sense that when you get to the end of what was a very, very big portfolio, you've got stickier things. We are committed to aggressively reducing that portfolio and are working very, very hard at it. But at the moment, it's a small portfolio and we'll continue to chip away.

格倫，我唯一想補充的是，我們已經做出承諾。現在這是一個很小的投資組合，但你會——當你完成一個非常非常大的投資組合時，你會遇到更棘手的事情，這是常識。我們致力於積極減少這項投資組合，並且正在為此付出巨大的努力。但目前，我們的投資組合規模還很小，我們將繼續努力。

Ebrahim Poonawal, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawal。

Hey, good morning. I guess, just first question Denis to follow up on capital. I think, the 10.9% versus 14.5% CET1, there is a sense that maybe there could be some give back on the SCB next year.

嘿，早安。我想，首先要問丹尼斯有關資金的後續情況。我認為，10.9% 與 14.5% 的 CET1 相比，有一種感覺，明年 SCB 可能會有所回落。

Give us a sense of like is there a CET1 ratio you're targeting against as we think about go-forward basis? And obviously it has implications for ROE. So how are you thinking about potential for SCB moving higher because of trading losses next year and what's the right CET1 target that we think about for Goldman going forward? Thanks.

當我們考慮未來基礎時，請讓我們了解您是否有 CET1 比率作為目標？顯然，這對 ROE 有影響。那麼，您如何看待渣打銀行明年因交易損失而上漲的可能性，以及我們認為高盛未來的正確 CET1 目標是什麼？謝謝。

Sure. Thanks, Ebrahim. And obviously, we all recognize the environment remains fluid and we'll have to understand exactly where we land on what our minimum requirements are and when they're -- when they take effect.

當然。謝謝，易卜拉欣。顯然，我們都認識到環境仍在不斷變化，我們必須確切地了解我們的最低要求是什麼以及它們何時生效。

But I think in terms of our operating philosophy, we still expect to run with approximately 50 to 100-basis-point buffer versus the new and applicable regulatory minimum. We think that gives us reasonable flexibility to have capacity and reserve to support unexpected types of client activity as well as to adjust to any changes across regulatory outcomes over the cycles. That's our current expectation, Ebrahim.

但我認為，就我們的經營理念而言，我們仍預計以相對於新的適用監管最低限度大約 50 到 100 個基點的緩衝來運行。我們認為這為我們提供了合理的靈活性，使我們有能力和儲備來支援意外類型的客戶活動，並適應週期內監管結果的任何變化。這是我們目前的期望，易卜拉欣。

Got it. And in just following up on capital deployment opportunities, where does, if at all, inorganic acquisitions rank when you think about a use of capital?

知道了。而在跟進資本部署機會時，當您考慮資本使用時，無機收購的排名如何？

Yeah, I mean, Ebrahim, you've asked me this question before, and we've talked about this extensively. We are always looking for ways that we can accelerate our franchise, and we've been particularly focused on thinking about ways we can accelerate our Asset and Wealth Management franchise.

是的，我的意思是，易卜拉欣，你之前問過我這個問題，我們也對此進行了廣泛的討論。我們一直在尋找能夠加速我們的特許經營權的方法，並且我們特別專注於思考能夠加速我們的資產和財富管理特許經營權的方法。

But the bar to do anything significant will be very, very high. And as we've said repeatedly, these -- there aren't lots of these things. They're generally not available. They're generally not for sale. But to the degree that there are opportunities, one of the things the capital flexibility gives us is the ability to think more seriously about some of that stuff, but I want to highlight, with a very, very high bar around doing significant things.

但要做任何重大的事情，門檻都會非常非常高。正如我們一再說過的，這些──這些東西並不多。它們一般不可用。它們一般不出售。但就機會而言，資本彈性給予我們的其中一件事就是能夠更認真地思考其中的一些事情，但我想強調的是，做重大事情的標準非常高。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Hi, good morning. David, I just -- question for me on this topic is how do you think about the sizing of the dividend? Very impressive increase for sure. And I just wondered how do you think about how high to -- what drove that decisioning as to where to set it and how should we think about how high it could go going forward?

嗨，早安。大衛，我只是——關於這個主題，我的問題是，您如何看待股息的規模？確實成長非常可觀。我只是想知道您如何看待它的高度——是什麼促使您做出將其設置在哪裡的決定，以及我們應該如何考慮它未來可以達到的高度？

Sure, Betsy. And I think the most important thing that we're committed to -- the most important thing is to be in a position to consistently raise the dividend and create a steady increase pattern of dividend increases.

當然，貝琪。我認為我們所承諾的最重要的事情——最重要的是能夠持續提高股息並形成穩定的股息成長模式。

Unlike a number of our competitors that you would benchmark us to, we started from a very different place five, six, or seven years ago. And we had a nominal dividend and we've been growing into it.

與許多可以作為我們基準的競爭對手不同，我們在五、六、七年前就從一個非常不同的起點起步。我們有名義上的股息，並且我們一直在增長。

As we've been growing the firm, we've been growing into getting to the place that we want a dividend and metrics around that dividend that are more in line with what these institutions do. Part of that was our confidence in the durability of our revenues, the business mix, which we've grown and we've executed on and we've improved, and so we've moved it along accordingly.

隨著公司的發展，我們逐漸達到了我們想要的股利和與股利相關的指標，這些指標更符合這些機構的做法。部分原因是我們對收入和業務組合的持久性充滿信心，我們已經發展、執行並改進了這些業務，因此我們也相應地向前發展。

You can look at the same things we look at with respect to payout ratio, with respect to yields, with respect to dividend, against our overall capital return plan. And evaluating this year, given the growth of the firm, and the firm is at step up in the growth -- of the overall firm and its overall earnings capacity, we decided that this more significant move was appropriate.

您可以查看我們在派息率、收益率、股息以及我們的整體資本回報計劃方面所關注的相同內容。評估今年的情況，考慮到公司的成長情況，以及公司整體成長和整體獲利能力的提升，我們認為採取這項更重要的措施是合適的。

I don't think you should expect the 33% increase in the dividend every year. We want to -- we are committed to growing the dividends steadily. And we'll look at those metrics that you would expect around payout and yield and try to find that right balance. But I do think, given what's going on with the capital stack and the capital regime, and given the way we're executing on our strategy, which is allowing the firm to grow, there is room for us to continue to drive that dividend higher.

我認為你不應該期望每年的股息會增加 33%。我們希望－我們致力於穩定增加股利。我們將研究您期望的有關支出和收益的指標，並嘗試找到適當的平衡。但我確實認為，考慮到資本結構和資本製度的現狀，以及我們執行策略的方式（即允許公司成長），我們有空間繼續提高股息。

Okay. Great. So payout ratio could inch up from here is what I'm hearing.

好的。偉大的。因此，我聽到的是，派息率可能會從現在開始逐漸上升。

And then separately on your expectations for how AI is going to impact your overall efficiency. I'm just thinking about drivers of revenue growth and expense saves.

然後分別談談您對人工智慧如何影響您的整體效率的期望。我只是在考慮收入成長和費用節省的驅動因素。

I know it's both sides of the equations with AI -- the equation with AI. How should we think about how much efficiency this can unlock over time? How are you thinking about it?

我知道這是人工智慧等式的兩邊——人工智慧等式。我們該如何思考隨著時間的推移這能帶來多少效率？您覺得怎麼樣？

Yeah, we're spending an enormous amount of time on this, Betsy. And we haven't put public numbers out, but you should know that we've got detailed plans on things we're investing and what we think they can generate.

是的，我們花了大量的時間在這上面，貝琪。我們還沒有公佈公開數字，但您應該知道，我們對所投資的項目以及我們認為它們可以產生的收益有詳細的計劃。

And I just say, for us and for others, not unique to us, this is a big opportunity. It's a big opportunity to automate processes, create efficiency and productivity and processes. And it's not just to take cost out, although there will be operating efficiency and costs that can come out.

我想說，對我們和其他人來說（並非只有我們），這是一個巨大的機會。這是實現流程自動化、提高效率和生產力以及流程的絕佳機會。這不僅僅是為了降低成本，儘管這樣可以提高營運效率並降低成本。

It's also to create flexibility for us to make investments in other things that can drive more growth in our client businesses. And so we're excited about that.

這也為我們創造了靈活性，讓我們可以對其他能夠推動客戶業務進一步成長的領域進行投資。因此我們對此感到興奮。

I mentioned in my opening remarks, this partnership with Cognition Labs and this program, Devin, if you think about all the software development that we do and how important that is to service our clients and grow our business. This allows us to accelerate our ability to do that with this agentic capability to have our engineers guide software development at a much faster pace and a much larger scale.

我在開場白中提到了與認知實驗室的合作以及這個項目，德文，如果你想想我們所做的所有軟體開發，以及這對服務我們的客戶和發展我們的業務有多麼重要。這使我們能夠利用這種代理能力來加速實現這一目標，讓我們的工程師以更快的速度和更大規模地指導軟體開發。

So it's both a productivity gain that allows investment and growth. That's for the revenue side of your equation. But also there's enormous operating efficiency in the firm.

因此，這既是生產力的提高，又能促進投資和成長。這是等式的收入方面。但該公司的營運效率也非常高。

And in other businesses, I think this is one of the reasons -- this is one of the tailwinds in markets overall, is there's a big belief that as AI is deployed in the enterprise broadly, you can drive earnings growth and efficiency in a meaningful way. And so I think this is something to be quite excited about.

而對於其他產業來說，我認為這是原因之一——這是整個市場的順風因素之一，人們堅信，隨著人工智慧在企業中的廣泛部署，可以以有意義的方式推動獲利成長和效率。所以我認為這是一件非常令人興奮的事情。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的麥克梅奧 (Mike Mayo)。

Hi, you said earlier in the call you expect a lot of M&A for the rest of the year. And, I guess, we've been hearing that forecast for two to three years now and so is it really happening now? Are these big strategic deals? What kind of deals, what geographies, and what gives you the extra confidence given that there's still some uncertainty out there? Thanks.

您好，您在電話會議中早些時候說過，預計今年剩餘時間內將有大量併購活動。我想，我們已經聽到這樣的預測兩三年了，那麼現在它真的發生了嗎？這些是重大戰略交易嗎？鑑於仍存在一些不確定性，什麼樣的交易、哪些地區、什麼能給您額外的信心？謝謝。

Yeah, well, I mean, I'd highlight, Mike, that if you -- yeah, I appreciate the question, I know this is something people have been very focused on. But I'd start by looking at the revenue accruals for the quarter, which are definitely an indication that there's been more M&A activity coming through the pipe.

是的，嗯，我的意思是，我想強調的是，麥克，如果你——是的，我很感謝你的提問，我知道這是人們一直非常關注的事情。但我首先會看一下本季的收入應計數據，這無疑表明正在進行的併購活動有所增加。

You heard my comments and Denis' comments around the backlog, which was driven by Advisory growth. And I just say, anecdotally, the level of dialogue is significantly increased, and there are a variety of reasons for that.

您聽到了我和丹尼斯對積壓問題的評論，這是由諮詢增長推動的。我只是說，從傳聞來看，對話水平顯著提高，而這有多種原因。

One is, I think from a regulatory perspective, there's a confidence level on the part of CEOs that significant scale of industry consolidation is possible and so people are very engaged in that across a range of industries. Scale continues to be incredibly important to businesses broadly.

一方面，我認為從監管角度來看，執行長們對大規模的產業整合是可能的充滿信心，因此各行各業的人們都非常參與其中。規模對於廣大企業來說仍然極為重要。

I hear this from CEOs continuously, and I just say the elevated level of dialogue is in a much different place than it was three to six months ago. And so we're encouraged.

我不斷聽到執行長們這麼說，我想說，與三到六個月前相比，對話的水平已經大不相同了。因此我們感到鼓舞。

The metrics that we have that we can see backlog, new business opportunities are up. And it feels like we're entering a period of a higher level of activity and we're seeing that in the accruals that we saw last quarter and as we enter this quarter, we're seeing a better level of accruals.

根據我們的指標，我們可以看到積壓訂單和新商機都在增加。感覺我們正在進入一個活動水平更高的時期，我們在上個季度的應計項目中看到了這一點，而進入本季度，我們看到了更好的應計水平。

Mike, what I would add -- we get this question a lot, trying to reconcile our performance and the change in our backlog with the ongoing uncertainty in the world. It is in times of uncertainty that clients typically turn to Goldman Sachs, given our longstanding leadership position advising the biggest and most important companies on their most consequential transactions.

麥克，我想補充的是——我們經常被問到這個問題，試圖將我們的表現和積壓訂單的變化與世界上持續存在的不確定性相協調。正是在充滿不確定性的時期，客戶才會向高盛尋求協助，因為我們長期以來一直佔據領導地位，為最大、最重要的公司就其最重要的交易提供諮詢服務。

And while there is persistent uncertainty, there is also opportunity. And what we're reflecting in our performance and our outlook is that we think that the clients that we're engaged with are seeing opportunities and we're engaged in trying to help them execute.

儘管不確定性仍然存在，但也存在著機會。我們的業績和展望反映出，我們認為與我們合作的客戶看到了機遇，我們也盡力幫助他們實現機會。

Yeah, and just see, the last thing, Mike -- not to beat the horse, we said it in the script. Announced M&A is up 30% year-over-year. Okay? That's a significant move and it's higher -- now 15% higher than the five-year average. So there has been a move in activity that comes in revenue later, but that also gives us confidence.

是的，你看，最後一件事，麥克——不要打馬，我們在劇本裡說過了。宣布的併購交易年增 30%。好的？這是一個重大舉措，而且漲幅較高——目前比五年平均高出 15%。因此，活動的變動隨後會帶來收入，但這也給了我們信心。

And then coming full circle, as it relates to Goldman pursuing acquisitions, what would be the hurdle rate? What would -- if you dream the dream, what would you ideally like to pursue?

那麼回到原點，就高盛的收購而言，最低收益率是多少？如果您夢想的話，您最想追求的是什麼？

I think what I said before when -- I guess it was Betsy that asked the question, what we are -- we are growing our Asset Wealth Management franchise, and there might be opportunities to accelerate that growth in the scale of what we're doing there. That's where our focus would be.

我想我之前說過——我想是貝琪問了這個問題，我們是什麼——我們正在發展我們的資產財富管理特許經營權，並且可能有機會加速我們在那裡所做業務規模的增長。這就是我們的重點。

But I don't have anything to add more specifically at this point, Mike. But obviously we're looking for opportunities to continue to scale and grow the positioning of that Asset Management platform.

但是麥克，目前我還沒有什麼可以更具體補充的。但顯然，我們正在尋找機會繼續擴大和提升資產管理平台的定位。

It's a $3.3 trillion platform. It's very broad and diverse in what it does, but there's certainly opportunities to accelerate our scaling in certain places, and we'll consider those things.

這是一個價值3.3兆美元的平台。它的功能非常廣泛且多樣化，但肯定有機會在某些地方加速我們的擴展，我們會考慮這些事情。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning, David, and good morning, Denis. Thanks for taking my questions. David, in response to Glenn's earlier question, you noted that you're still committed to reducing on balance sheet Alternative Investments.

嗨，早安，大衛，早安，丹尼斯。感謝您回答我的問題。大衛，在回答格倫之前的問題時，你指出你仍然致力於減少資產負債表上的另類投資。

Following the Fed's decision this year to apply more favorable treatment and DFAST for those types of activities, it appears to have meaningfully reduced the burden for engaging in Alternative Investments. I wanted to gauge whether you would ever consider pivoting from your strategy to shrinking the Investment portfolio just as you evaluate organic growth opportunities? Are these investments potentially ROE enhancing just following the Fed's decision to meaningfully alter or change the capital treatment?

聯準會今年決定對此類活動實施更優惠的待遇和 DFAST，這似乎顯著減輕了從事另類投資的負擔。我想評估一下，當您評估有機成長機會時，您是否會考慮改變您的策略以縮減投資組合？在聯準會決定對資本處理進行重大調整或改變之後，這些投資是否有可能提高 ROE？

So on the broad strategy, never is a big word, Steven, but we have no plans. We have no plans to change our strategy. I would remind you, and I know you're deeply aware of this, we still do use our balance sheet to seed funds in our Asset Management business, to co-invest in certain client situations where we think that enhances our client franchise.

因此，就整體戰略而言，「永遠」不是一個大詞，史蒂文，但我們沒有計劃。我們沒有改變戰略的計劃。我想提醒您，而且我知道您深深意識到了這一點，我們仍然使用我們的資產負債表來為我們的資產管理業務注入資金，在我們認為可以增強我們客戶特許經營權的某些客戶情況下進行共同投資。

But that's very different than running a full-on Alternatives platform on balance sheet. We've pivoted away from that strategy. We think that as an asset manager, this strategy where we use some capital alongside a broad management of other client capital is the right strategy. We're committed to that and we're not going to pivot from that.

但這與在資產負債表上運行完整的替代平台有很大不同。我們已經放棄了這個策略。我們認為，作為資產管理者，使用部分資本並廣泛管理其他客戶資本的策略是正確的策略。我們致力於此，並且不會改變。

But your point remains valid, Steven, in that the strategy is driven by co-investing with clients to drive the growth of the fund business. But based on the changes that have been made, that on balance sheet co-investment capital will be more favorably treated, we would expect, on an ongoing basis and present less of a returns headwind to executing on our prioritized strategy.

但是史蒂文，你的觀點仍然是正確的，因為該策略是透過與客戶共同投資來推動基金業務的成長。但基於已經做出的改變，我們預期資產負債表上的共同投資資本將持續受到更優惠的待遇，對執行我們的優先策略所產生的回報阻力也會更小。

No, thanks for that color. And for my follow up, just on the magnitude of SCB improvement was quite encouraging. It appears that the bulk of it really came from more favorable treatment of atypical trading positions.

不，謝謝你的顏色。就我的後續觀察而言，SCB 改善的程度相當令人鼓舞。看起來，其中大部分確實來自於對非典型交易頭寸的更優惠待遇。

I was hoping you can provide some perspective on whether you believe that the gains are durable. If you've done any additional analysis that would inform -- I know you were asked about where you're comfortable running in terms of CET1. But just what you believe is durable or sustainable in terms of the gains that you realize this year?

我希望您能提供一些觀點，表明您是否相信這些成果是持久的。如果您做過任何額外的分析，我知道有人問過您，在 CET1 方面您覺得在哪裡跑起來比較舒服。但是，就您今年實現的收益而言，您認為什麼是持久的或可持續的？

Yeah, so I appreciate the question, Steven, and I understand the focus on this, and I'd say a couple of things. First of all, at a high level, we have been executing on a strategy for a number of years that is less RWA dense.

是的，我很感謝史蒂文提出這個問題，我也理解大家對這個問題的關注，我想說幾點。首先，從高層來看，我們多年來一直在執行風險加權資產密度較低的策略。

Your first question was specific to that. We've been executing on a strategy that is less RWA dense. And we felt over the last X number of years that we were making real progress on that.

您的第一個問題就是針對這一點的。我們一直在執行風險加權資產密度較低的策略。我們感覺到在過去的 X 年裡我們在這方面取得了真正的進展。

We were incredibly confused last year, okay, when our SCB went significantly in the wrong direction. This year, we think we got meaningful benefit from the strategy we've been executing on for a long time.

去年，當我們的 SCB 嚴重偏離方向時，我們感到非常困惑。今年，我們認為我們從長期執行的策略中獲得了有意義的利益。

However, to your question specifically, I can't tell you why because I don't have transparency and I know you don't either on exactly how the models work, why the models generated that, what the results were. In our advocacy, one of the big things that we're advocating for as the capital process is being reviewed.

但是，具體到您的問題，我無法告訴您原因，因為我不了解情況，而且我知道您也不知道這些模型究竟是如何運作的，為什麼這些模型會產生這樣的結果，以及結果是什麼。在我們的倡議中，我們所倡導的一項重要的事情就是對資本流程進行審查。

And there's a big meeting next week in Washington that we have somebody attending, most of the institutions have attending where there's discussion around how the capital process should continue to evolve. Transparency is a big theme.

下週在華盛頓將有一個重要會議，我們將派人出席，大多數機構都會出席，會議將討論資本流程應如何繼續發展。透明度是一個重要主題。

This should be a transparent process so we can plan. So you have transparency and understanding how we're going to allocate capital. And so also we have a system that's not just durable but also can deploy capital into the system to drive economic growth.

這應該是一個透明的過程，以便我們可以進行規劃。因此，您可以透明地了解我們將如何分配資本。因此，我們的系統不僅持久，還能將資本投入其中，推動經濟成長。

And the lack of transparency around this at the moment is something that I don't think is good for the system. And so I'm hopeful that we'll have more transparency and there'll be a point in time where we can actually answer this question and tell you the impact of this.

目前這方面缺乏透明度，我認為這對系統不利。因此，我希望我們能夠更加透明，並且最終能夠真正回答這個問題並告訴你它的影響。

But at a high level, we know enough to know that we're running a strategy that is less RWA dense than it was. And we're going to keep the flexibility to adapt until there's more clarity on these capital rules. And I think we're going to get more over the course of the next 12 months.

但從高層次來看，我們知道的足夠多，我們知道我們正在實施的策略的風險加權資產密度比以前要低。我們將保持靈活性，直到這些資本規則更加明確。我認為我們在未來 12 個月內會取得更多進展。

Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

德文·瑞安（Devin Ryan），公民 JMP。

Thanks. Good morning, David. Good morning, Denis. How are you? Good. First of all, I'm not sure how I feel about having an AI named after me, but excited to see this evolve. (laughter)

謝謝。早安，大衛。早安，丹尼斯。你好嗎？好的。首先，我不確定對於以我的名字命名的人工智慧有何感受，但很高興看到它的發展。（笑聲）

But we already touched on that. So I want to ask a question just about, David, you hit on ranking in the top three now with 125 of your top 150 clients. And that's up from 77 in 2019. So you're really making nice progress on that that strategy that you laid out years ago.

但我們已經討論過這個問題了。所以我想問一個問題，大衛，你的前 150 名客戶中有 125 名你都進入了前三名。這一數字比 2019 年的 77 有所上升。所以，您確實在多年前製定的策略上取得了很大進展。

So just remind us on some of the structural differences and how you're covering these clients today compared to the past? And how important is just increasing capital to those clients versus just the way you cover them? And then I know there's a focus on the top 150 clients, but just these evolution and coverage and how that's resonating the opportunity to employ that more broadly just across the franchise and just take more client wallet more broadly?

那麼，請提醒我們一些結構性差異，以及與過去相比，您現在如何服務這些客戶？那麼，僅僅增加這些客戶的資本與僅僅提供覆蓋服務的方式相比有多重要？然後我知道重點是前 150 名客戶，但僅僅是這些發展和覆蓋範圍，以及它如何在整個特許經營範圍內更廣泛地利用這些機會並更廣泛地吸引更多客戶錢包？

Yeah, thanks, Devin. I appreciate the question. I think there are a handful of things that we've invested in and executed on over the course of the last year that have really driven our ability to gain these market shares and it starts with One Goldman Sachs, and really, a change in the overall coverage philosophy across the organization.

是的，謝謝，德文。我很感謝你提出這個問題。我認為，我們在過去一年中投資並執行的一些事情真正推動了我們獲得這些市場份額的能力，這些事情始於“一個高盛”，實際上是整個組織整體覆蓋理念的改變。

This has been enhanced over the last few years by the bringing together of global banking and markets, which has enhanced activity and our ability to bring different aspects of the firm together and to deliver them seamlessly for clients. And we continue to work on doing that across the firm.

過去幾年，全球銀行業務和市場業務的整合進一步增強了我們的業務活動，也增強了我們將公司不同方面整合在一起並為客戶提供無縫服務的能力。我們將繼續在全公司範圍內努力實現這一目標。

It's been very effective. It's a different operating ethos. There have been significant behavior changes over the last five-plus years in the firm in terms of the way people think about clients, think about servicing clients, think about meeting the needs, and think about getting resources that clients need in front of them.

它非常有效。這是一種不同的經營理念。在過去五年多的時間裡，公司在人們思考客戶的方式、思考如何服務客戶的方式、思考如何滿足客戶需求的方式以及如何獲取客戶所需的資源方面發生了重大變化。

In addition, strategically, and I know you're aware of this, we have made a conscious effort to drive our financing businesses. And when you finance clients, you create a connectivity with them that creates a virtuous cycle of more activity in your ecosystem.

此外，從策略上講，我知道您已經意識到了這一點，我們已經有意識地努力推動我們的融資業務。當你為客戶提供融資時，你就與他們建立了聯繫，從而在你的生態系統中形成更多活動的良性循環。

And so our investment in financing our clients is also at a very, very positive impact on those market shares and those activities. And so we're positioned well.

因此，我們對客戶融資的投資也對這些市場份額和活動產生了非常積極的影響。因此我們的定位很有利。

We talk about the top 150 because that's a significant chunk of the business, but there's a much, much broader client footprint. I know you're aware that we cover about 12,000 clients in Investment Banking. We cover thousands of clients across our Trading businesses.

我們討論前 150 名是因為這是業務的很大一部分，但客戶範圍要廣泛得多。我知道您知道我們的投資銀行業務涵蓋約 12,000 名客戶。我們的貿易業務涵蓋了數千名客戶。

And so we're constantly thinking about ways that we can hold ourselves as an organization accountable for improving client relationships coverage and therefore shares. And we're going to continue to make that a fundamental pillar of our client service value and really executing against our plan.

因此，我們一直在思考如何讓我們作為一個組織對改善客戶關係覆蓋範圍並因此提高市場份額負責。我們將繼續將其作為客戶服務價值的基本支柱，並真正執行我們的計劃。

That's great, David. Thank you. And then just a quick follow up on just the broader theme of tokenization. I know we're still waiting for some regulatory clarity here. But would just love to get some quick thoughts on how Goldman is thinking about this as an opportunity? How you're thinking about implications on market structure? And just even how you may look to participate once we do get the green light? Thanks.

太棒了，大衛。謝謝。然後只是對標記化的更廣泛主題進行快速跟進。我知道我們仍在等待監管方面的明確規定。但只是想快速了解高盛如何看待這項機會？您如何看待其對市場結構的影響？一旦我們獲得批准，您會如何參與？謝謝。

Sure. Obviously the legislative agenda that's putting regulatory structure around stablecoins and digitization is important. We're very focused on it. I think this Market Structure Bill that is yet to come is very, very important in the context of this in the direction of travel.

當然。顯然，圍繞穩定幣和數位化製定監管結構的立法議程非常重要。我們非常關注這一點。我認為，這項尚未出台的市場結構法案在這一發展方向上非常非常重要。

We think there are a handful of places where there could be interesting opportunity for us, potentially around funding. We also think that the continued digitization of the financial system takes friction out and creates new opportunities.

我們認為，有幾個地方可能為我們帶來有趣的機會，尤其是融資方面。我們也認為，金融體系的持續數位化可以消除摩擦並創造新的機會。

And so we've got a very significant group of people at the firm that are really deeply focused on watching the evolution of this. It's early to say, specifically, where we're going to invest and exactly how this will play out, but we'll continue to keep you posted.

因此，我們公司有一群非常重要的人，他們非常關注這個問題的進展。現在具體說我們將在哪裡投資以及具體如何進行還為時過早，但我們會繼續向大家通報最新情況。

And there's a heightened level of focus here inside the firm on how this will disrupt, change the competitive landscape, and create opportunities. And we're going to make sure we're well positioned to capture -- to capitalize on that if that involves.

公司內部更加重視這將如何顛覆、改變競爭格局並創造機會。我們將確保我們處於有利位置，以便抓住機會——如果有必要的話，充分利用這一點。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

Hi, good morning. My first question is a follow up. You mentioned that the ideal buffer to your CET1 minimums is 50 to 100 basis points, but looking at your current standardized of 14.5% and clearly your potential new minimum of 10.9%, that implies a pretty significant buffer still.

嗨，早安。我的第一個問題是後續問題。您提到，CET1 最低標準的理想緩衝是 50 到 100 個基點，但考慮到您目前的標準化水準 14.5%，以及您潛在的新最低標準 10.9%，這仍然意味著相當大的緩衝。

Implicit in David's earlier remarks is that transparency in the stress test is needed. But I guess what do you need to see either from the regulatory construct or anything else in order to work down that buffer even more significantly?

大衛先前的言論暗示壓力測試需要透明度。但我想，為了更有效地降低緩衝，您需要從監管結構或其他方面看到什麼？

Well, so to -- obviously, all the comments David makes with respect to transparency and the details that underlie the results of the annual test and all of the models and exactly the inputs and outputs would be extremely helpful to calibrate the impact of each of the stresses on each component for part of our portfolio. More transparency, better.

嗯，所以——顯然，大衛就透明度、年度測試結果背後的細節以及所有模型以及確切的輸入和輸出所做的所有評論，對於校準每個壓力對我們投資組合各個組成部分的影響都非常有幫助。透明度越高越好。

In terms of working down from our current position to the ultimate implemented regulatory minimum, it is a combination of finding the accelerated opportunities for deployment. David just went through a one GS look at how we're improving the coverage, improving our holistic coverage of clients, integrating the provision of financing to enhance the overall relationship.

就從我們目前的立場到最終實施的最低監管水平而言，它是尋找加速部署機會的組合。David 剛剛透過 GS 了解了我們如何改善覆蓋範圍、改善客戶的整體覆蓋範圍、整合融資供應以增強整體關係。

We have tons of clients across multiple segments of the firm that would like us to support them more with their desire for financing. We have a very disciplined, risk sensitive, return sensitive allocation process, given the historical levels of flexibility that we've had with respect to capital.

我們公司多個部門的大量客戶希望我們能夠為他們的融資需求提供更多支援。考慮到我們在資本方面的歷史靈活性水平，我們擁有非常嚴謹、風險敏感、回報敏感的分配流程。

That's not to say there aren't tons of professionals around the firm constantly petitioning us for more capacity to drive more progress with their clients. With this excess amount of capital, we can engage in driving the extra capacity that our clients are looking for from us and accelerate some of those business activities. We can also use return of capital through buybacks, et cetera, to reduce some of that buffer.

這並不是說公司裡沒有大量的專業人士不斷請求我們提高產能，以推動客戶取得更多進步。有了這些多餘的資本，我們可以致力於推動客戶所期望的額外產能，並加速其中一些業務活動。我們也可以透過回購等方式返還資本，以減少部分緩衝。

So we will -- or as we said at the top of the call, stay true to our strategy, deploy where we can enhance client relationships, continue to return capital to shareholders, continue to advocate for more transparency. And hopefully, get to a point in time where we have a very manageable and predictable equilibrium that supports both safety and soundness, as well as ongoing growth across the economy.

因此，正如我們在電話會議開始時所說的那樣，我們將堅持我們的策略，在可以增強客戶關係的地方進行部署，繼續向股東返還資本，繼續倡導提高透明度。我們希望最終能夠達到一個非常易於管理和可預測的平衡點，既能支持安全性和穩健性，又能支持整個經濟的持續成長。

Yeah, the only other thing, Erika, just stepping up at a much higher level that I think is important to recognize. And Vice Chair Bowman has talked publicly about this. There are three areas of change in the capital regime that are being discussed at the moment.

是的，埃里卡，唯一的另一件事就是提升到一個更高的水平，我認為這一點很重要。副主席鮑曼已經公開談論過此事。目前正在討論的資本製度改革有三個面向。

One is ESLR and the proposal around that, which seems to be moving forward. The second is a discussion around G-SIB and the calibration of G-SIB, because when you look at the significant increase in large bank capital over the course of the last eight years, let's say, a significant portion of that has come from G-SIB and the lack of G-SIB calibration. And the third is stress testing SCB, the transparency around that, and that overall process.

一個是 ESLR 及其相關的提案，似乎正在取得進展。第二個是關於 G-SIB 和 G-SIB 校準的討論，因為當你看到過去八年大型銀行資本的大幅增加時，可以說其中很大一部分來自 G-SIB 和缺乏 G-SIB 校準。第三是對 SCB 進行壓力測試，包括其透明度以及整個流程。

More clarity on all three of those things allows us to drive toward more clarity on where our buffer is and where we're setting in. And so we're in that process, and my expectation is around those three things there will be more clarity in the coming 6 to 12 months.

對這三件事更加清晰的認識使我們能夠更清楚地了解我們的緩衝區在哪裡以及我們要設置在哪裡。我們正處於這一過程中，我期望圍繞這三件事在未來 6 到 12 個月內會有更清晰的認識。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞集團。

Thanks, good morning. If investment banking trends accelerate and we do see more M&A and issuance, can trading stay as robust as it has been or do you anticipate some kind of moderation or slow down within the market's business?

謝謝，早安。如果投資銀行趨勢加速，我們確實看到更多的併購和發行，交易能否保持像以前一樣強勁，或者您是否預計市場業務會出現某種緩和或放緩？

Dan, I don't have a great way to answer that or to speculate. What I would say is the following. Our markets business is a very, very large; very diverse; very significant business that operates globally, that touches all aspects and all aspect classes across markets.

丹，我沒有很好的方法來回答這個問題或推測。我想說的是以下幾點。我們的市場業務非常非常龐大、非常多樣化、非常重要，它在全球範圍內運營，涉及各個市場的各個方面和各個方面類別。

And one of the things we see, consistently -- and I mean, you heard it in Denis' remarks, this quarter, there was strength in a bunch of areas, but there was weakness, for example, in commodities and mortgages. Next quarter there could be strength in commodities.

我們始終看到的一件事——我的意思是，你們在丹尼斯的演講中聽到了這一點，本季度，許多領域都表現強勁，但大宗商品和抵押貸款等領域也表現疲軟。下個季度大宗商品價格可能會走強。

It's a very diverse business and I really think what drives the size of the overall wallet is growth and activity in the world. And you would really need -- if you want to talk about the overall wallet and our participation in the overall wallet, you'd need a much more significant macro change. So an environment actually where there's a lot of investment banking activity, I still think it's quite constructive for our markets business.

這是一項非常多元化的業務，我確實認為推動整體錢包規模成長的是全球的成長和活動。而且你確實需要——如果你想談論整體錢包以及我們對整體錢包的參與，你需要一個更重大的宏觀變化。因此，我仍然認為，在投資銀行活動十分活躍的環境下，我們的市場業務非常有建設性。

Thank you. That's helpful. And just as a follow up, I'm just curious about how you're thinking about alternative fundraising within the broader Wealth channel or more mainstream retail. We've got potential changes around Alternative Assets being added to retirement accounts. How are you positioned to capitalize on this opportunity?

謝謝。這很有幫助。作為後續問題，我只是好奇您如何看待在更廣泛的財富管道或更主流的零售領域進行替代性籌款。我們對將另類資產添加到退休帳戶方面可能會有所改變。您如何利用這個機會？

Yeah, thanks for that, Dan. So this is something we've been very strategically focused on. As you know, we don't run a wirehouse or a platform like that, but we have been building third-party wealth distribution partnerships very actively. We have a big team here who's been very focused on it.

是的，謝謝你，丹。因此，這是我們一直非常重視的策略問題。如您所知，我們沒有經營類似的證券公司或平台，但我們一直在積極建立第三方財富分配合作夥伴關係。我們這裡有一個龐大的團隊，他們非常專注於此。

We've been active discussions around partnerships with others in the retirement channel, and we see this as a pretty significant opportunity. And one of things that's just interesting to me, following the news, but with the news around the administration weighing in on this, there have been a bunch of people mentioning firms that would benefit from this.

我們一直在積極討論與退休管道中的其他人建立合作關係，我們認為這是一個非常重要的機會。對我來說有趣的事情之一就是關注新聞，但隨著政府對此進行權衡的消息，有許多人提到公司將從中受益。

I haven't seen Goldman Sachs mentioned in the benefiting from this. Goldman Sachs will benefit from this. And so we're excited about the opportunity and extremely focused on it.

我還沒看到高盛提及從中受益。高盛將從中受益。因此，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮並非常關注它。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Great. Thanks for the question. In your prepared remarks, you talked a lot about building sustainable revenue model, less volatility. If we kind of step back and think about the medium-term ROE that you've talked about 15% to 17%, is that -- I guess, first part of the question, is that still the right level given what's going on in the environment and then the regulatory environment? And two, if that is the case, what's going to be the driver, numerator or denominator from here Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問。在您準備好的演講中，您談了很多關於建立可持續收入模式、減少波動性的內容。如果我們退一步思考一下您談到的 15% 至 17% 的中期 ROE，我想，問題的第一部分是，考慮到當前的環境和監管環境，這是否仍然是正確的水平？第二，如果是這樣的話，那麼從這裡開始的驅動因素、分子或分母是什麼呢？謝謝。

So first, Chris, welcome to the beat. Delighted to have you. We have been talking about our ability to drive the firm to mid-teens ROEs, slightly higher what you just quoted ROTEs. What's going on from a regulatory to a macro perspective gives us a higher level of confidence in our ability to deliver on that.

首先，克里斯，歡迎收看。很高興有你。我們一直在談論我們推動公司 ROE 達到十幾歲的能力，略高於您剛才引用的 ROTE。從監管到宏觀角度的進展讓我們對實現這一目標的能力更有信心。

That's where we are. We're delivering on that. I think we feel very good that the combination of growth we're driving in our Asset Wealth Management business, which continues to improve margins, continues to improve returns, is helping us up the firm's overall returns.

這就是我們現在的情況。我們正在實現這一目標。我認為，我們感到非常高興，我們的資產財富管理業務不斷提高利潤率，不斷提高回報，幫助我們提高公司的整體回報。

And our Global Banking and Markets business is obviously performing at a very, very high level at this point in the cycle. That will move around through the cycle, but we're very confident in that business's ability to deliver mid-teens returns through the cycle. And so it's the continued execution in Asset and Wealth Management that's uplifting those returns.

我們的全球銀行和市場業務顯然在目前的周期中表現得非常高。這將在整個週期中發生變化，但我們對該業務在整個週期中實現中等水平回報的能力非常有信心。因此，資產和財富管理的持續執行提升了這些回報。

And Chris, I mean just to follow up on it, I'm sure you see this clearly, but the returns that we've been generating have been with the quantum of capital that we've been required to hold. Excess capital both gives us capacity to drive extra activities with clients and also gives us capacity to run with a lower denominator at the same time. So that is a dual beneficial source of tailwind that is part of and an accelerant to the already existing strategy.

克里斯，我的意思是，只是為了跟進這一點，我相信你看得很清楚，但我們產生的回報是與我們必須持有的資本量一致的。過剩的資本不僅使我們有能力與客戶進行額外活動，同時也使我們有能力以較低的成本運作。因此，這是雙重有利的順風來源，既是現有策略的一部分，也是現有策略的加速器。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. We'll take our next question from (multiple speakers) HSBC.

謝謝。我們將回答匯豐銀行（多位發言者）提出的下一個問題。

I'm sorry Chris, did you have another question?

抱歉，克里斯，你還有其他問題嗎？

No. I'm just saying thank you. Appreciate it.

不。我只是想說聲謝謝。非常感謝。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to follow up on maybe Betsy's question on the dividend and ask it a slightly different way.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我只是想跟進一下 Betsy 關於股息的問題，並以稍微不同的方式來提問。

It obviously suggests greater confidence in how you're thinking about the durability of your revenue and earnings power, but is there -- how do we think about it or what does it imply about how you be your own core earnings power? If we were to assume for example a one-third dividend payout ratio would imply $12 a share or $48 annualized and earnings power.

這顯然表明您對收入和盈利能力的持久性有更大的信心，但是——我們如何看待它，或者它對您如何成為自己的核心盈利能力意味著什麼？例如，如果我們假設三分之一的股息支付率意味著每股 12 美元或年化 48 美元的獲利能力。

And obviously then, over time, you grow from that. But I mean is that an overly simplistic way of thinking about it or does it -- is the dividend -- can we draw conclusions about what it implies about how you're thinking about your own core earnings power today?

顯然，隨著時間的推移，你會成長。但我的意思是，這是一種過於簡單的思考方式嗎？或者，股息是否意味著您今天如何看待自己的核心獲利能力？

Yeah, I would say the following so for that question. We -- the firm has enormous core earnings power. We think we've built a more durable firm with more durable revenue. We talk a lot about our durable revenue growth across Asset Wealth Management, across other parts of the firm. And we continue to execute on that.

是的，對於這個問題，我會做出以下回答。我們——公司擁有龐大的核心獲利能力。我們認為我們已經建立了一個更持久的公司，擁有更持久的收入。我們多次談論資產財富管理以及公司其他部門的持久收入成長。我們將繼續執行這一目標。

As we create more durable revenue growth and we continue to prove out the durability of our businesses, you could make arguments that the payout ratio on the dividend, given the amount of capital we generate, should be higher than it currently is. It's obviously not near 33% at the moment.

隨著我們創造更持久的收入成長，並繼續證明我們業務的持久性，您可能會爭辯說，考慮到我們產生的資本量，股息的支付率應該高於現在。目前顯然還沒有接近 33%。

But we are comfortable with where we are. Our goal, and I want to emphasize this, is to have a sustainable, consistently growing dividend. And that's a big reset from where we were because we had a very nominal dividend.

但我們對於現狀感到滿意。我想強調的是，我們的目標是實現可持續、持續成長的股息。這與之前的狀況相比是一次巨大的調整，因為我們的股息非常少。

And so we're on that journey and we're going to continue to move in that direction. But I'm not going to speculate around payouts or other things other than the amplifier for strategy of building more durable revenues and growing the overall firm and franchise.

所以，我們正在踏上這段旅程，並將繼續朝著這個方向前進。但除了建立更持久的收入和發展整個公司和特許經營權的策略放大器之外，我不會對支出或其他事情進行猜測。

Okay. That's fair and that's helpful. Maybe I can just quickly follow up on Advisory. I get the reasons to be optimistic and now M&A's up 30% and the potential for that to translate into higher revenue.

好的。這很公平，也很有幫助。也許我可以快速跟進諮詢。我有理由保持樂觀，現在併購交易量成長了 30%，並且有可能轉化為更高的收入。

But this quarter, you did -- I think Denis you mentioned that you widened the gap versus your peers. And the revenue number, the fee number this quarter was well above, what your next closest competitor reported.

但本季度，你確實——我想丹尼斯你提到過，你擴大了與同行的差距。本季的收入數字和費用數字遠高於最接近的競爭對手報告的數字。

And I'm just curious that if there's anything in additional that you can comment on there. What drove that and what's driving the much better results and the durability of that gap relative to your competitor?

我只是好奇，您是否還有什麼可以評論的？是什麼推動了這股趨勢？是什麼推動了我們取得比競爭對手更好的成績，並且保持了與競爭對手相比更持久的差距？

Yeah, this is an extraordinary franchise that's been a leading franchise for over 25 years. It continues to be a leading franchise.

是的，這是一個非凡的特許經營權，25 年來一直處於領先地位。它繼續保持領先的特許經營地位。

Our performance this quarter on a relative basis was quite strong. You shouldn't interpolate but that means every single quarter, it will be this strong. I think when you look year-to-year-to-year, we have a leadership position. And that leadership position, if we continue to execute, should be sustained.

相對而言，我們本季的表現相當強勁。你不應該進行插值，但這意味著每個季度都會如此強勁。我認為，如果逐年回顧，我們會發現我們處於領先地位。如果我們繼續執行，這項領導地位就能夠維持下去。

That has some quarters where we way outperform and some quarters where we just outperform by a little bit. This was a quarter where we outperformed more. But the strength of this franchise, the way we're positioned, the investment we make in this franchise, we're confident in an improved M&A environment. We're going to have leading share and continue to work hard to protect that position.

有些季度我們的表現遠優於其他季度，而有些季度我們的表現僅略勝一籌。這是我們表現更出色的一個季度。但鑑於該特許經營權的實力、我們的定位以及我們對該特許經營權的投資，我們對改善的併購環境充滿信心。我們將保持領先地位，並繼續努力保護這一地位。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪（Gerard Cassidy），加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi, Denis. Hi, David. David, you mentioned in your comments about inorganic growth, and I apologize if you addressed this and I missed it. But you talk about the high bar that it would have to meet for you guys to maybe to pursue something, if something comes up that you can look at. Can you frame out what that high bar -- do you look at it from a dilution of earnings or tangible book value or return on that investment? Can you frame that out for us?

你好，丹尼斯。你好，大衛。大衛，你在評論中提到了無機增長，如果你提到了這一點而我卻沒有註意到，我深表歉意。但你們談到，如果出現了一些你們可以關注的事情，那麼你們必須滿足很高的標準才能去追求某些事情。您能否闡明這個高標準是什麼——您是從收益稀釋、有形帳面價值還是投資回報的角度來看待它？你能為我們解釋一下嗎？

I mean, we obviously would look at all sorts of financial metrics, Gerard, and thinking about an acquisition. But let's start with, strategically, what are we trying to do in the business and how does the business that you're acquiring advance the strategic mission.

我的意思是，我們顯然會考慮各種財務指標，傑拉德，並考慮收購。但讓我們從策略上開始，我們在業務中試圖做什麼，以及您所收購的業務如何推進策略使命。

And so, first and foremost, there's got to be a strategic fit in terms of things that we're prioritizing and the growth of our Asset and Wealth Management franchise. Secondarily, these are people businesses. You have to have enormous confidence in the people, knowledge in the people, the cultural issues, et cetera.

因此，首先，我們必須在優先考慮的事情和資產與財富管理特許經營權的成長方面實現策略契合。其次，這些都是人力業務。你必須對人民、對人民的了解、對文化議題等有極大的信心。

And then of course, there's financial analysis around that, which really gets to what do you pay for it. This is why the bar is high though to doing these things because to get all that stuff to align on a property that's available, that's a high-quality property, is a very hard thing to do.

當然，還有財務分析，這實際上關係到你為此付出了多少錢。這就是為什麼做這些事情的門檻很高，因為要讓所有這些東西都與可用的、高品質的房產相匹配，是一件非常困難的事情。

Got it. No, thank you. And then as a follow up question, your results speak for themselves on the strength of Investment Banking and Trading. And in the environment that's -- has a lot of uncertainty and risk, geopolitical risk is at the top of the list, what do you worry about as you go forward in view of putting up very good results with all the risks that we're currently seeing? What could -- what concern -- is there anything that concerns you as you look forward?

知道了。不，謝謝。然後作為後續問題，您的結果不言而喻地說明了投資銀行和交易的實力。在充滿不確定性和風險的環境中，地緣政治風險位居首位，考慮到在當前面臨所有風險的情況下取得非常好的結果，您擔心什麼？什麼可能——什麼令人擔憂——在您展望未來時，有什麼讓您擔心的嗎？

Well, there are always things that concern us. Our job is to worry a lot about things that have a small probability of happening and make sure we're prepared to navigate in those environments. The firm has an extraordinary focus on risk management.

嗯，總有一些事情讓我們擔心。我們的工作是擔心那些發生機率很小的事情，並確保我們做好在這些環境中航行的準備。該公司非常重視風險管理。

And we -- it doesn't matter how good things are, we're always focused on risk management and what if this, what if that. I would say, but a super interesting, highly uncertain environment. And you just look at the last quarter, the change in sentiment and the environment and policy positions, geopolitics just in the last three months have been significant.

而且我們——無論事情有多好，我們總是專注於風險管理以及如果發生這種情況會怎樣，如果發生那種情況會怎樣。我想說，但這是一個非常有趣、高度不確定的環境。只要看一下上個季度，就會發現過去三個月情緒、環境、政策立場和地緣政治的變化都非常顯著。

I'd also say, we participate in a very large, very diverse, very resilient global economy. And we're seeing the ability of the global economy to absorb and navigate some of this policy uncertainty quite well. But we're going to stay vigilant from a risk management perspective, and it's never a straight line.

我還想說，我們參與了一個非常龐大、非常多元、非常有彈性的全球經濟。我們看到全球經濟能夠很好地吸收和應對部分政策不確定性。但從風險管理的角度來說，我們將保持警惕，這絕對不會是一條直線。

And so, I'm sure just as there was in this quarter, there'll be unexpected surprises in the next quarter and the quarter after that. But we're going to be focused on our clients, focused on helping them navigate it. And when we do that, we take a long-term view, this firm tends to perform quite well.

因此，我確信，就像本季一樣，下個季度以及下個季度也會出現意想不到的驚喜。但我們將專注於我們的客戶，專注於幫助他們解決問題。當我們這樣做時，我們會從長遠角度考慮，這家公司的表現往往相當不錯。

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。目前，沒有其他問題。女士們，先生們，高盛 2025 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。