高盛 (GS) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer.

早安。我叫 Katie，今天將擔任本次會議的主持人。我謹代表高盛，歡迎各位參加高盛 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。我將先代表高盛宣讀以下免責聲明，作為本次電話會議的開場。

The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of the Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. This audio cast is copyrighted material of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. And may not be duplicated, reproduced, or rebroadcast without consent.

本次財報簡報可於高盛網站的投資人關係頁面查閱，其中包含前瞻性陳述及非 GAAP 衡量指標的相關資訊。本次音訊直播為高盛集團公司（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）之著作權資料，未經同意不得複製、重製或轉播。

This call is being recorded today, January 15, 2026. I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman. Thank you, Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

本次電話會議將於今日（2026 年 1 月 15 日）錄音。接下來我將把電話會議交給董事長兼執行長 David Solomon，以及財務長 Denis Coleman。謝謝您，Solomon 先生，請開始您的會議。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us. I'm very pleased with our strong performance in the fourth quarter where we generated earnings per share of $14.01, an ROE of 16% and a ROTE of 17.1%.

謝謝，接線員。各位早安。感謝各位加入我們。我對我們第四季的強勁表現感到非常滿意：每股盈餘 14.01 美元，股東權益報酬率（ROE）16%，有形股東權益報酬率（ROTE）17.1%。

For the full year, we delivered earnings per share of $51.32, a 27% increase versus last year, an ROE of 15% and an ROTE of 16%. Before we review our financials in detail, I want to discuss our longer-term performance and provide an update to you on our strategy.

全年而言，我們每股盈餘為 51.32 美元，較去年成長 27%，ROE 為 15%，ROTE 為 16%。在我們詳細檢視財務表現之前，我想先談談我們較長期的表現，並向各位更新我們的策略。

Beginning on page 1, in 2020, we held the firm's first investor day and laid out a clear and comprehensive strategy to grow and strengthen the firm. We also set a number of targets so we would be held accountable for our progress.

從第 1 頁開始，2020 年我們舉辦了公司首次投資人日，並提出一套清晰且全面的策略，以推動公司成長並強化體質。我們也設定了多項目標，以便外界能就我們的進展對我們進行問責。

Since then, guided by our purpose to be the most exceptional financial institution in the world, supported by our core values of client service, integrity, partnership and excellence. We continue to successfully execute on this strategy.

自那時起，在「成為全球最卓越的金融機構」這一使命指引下，並以我們「客戶服務、誠信、夥伴關係與卓越」的核心價值為支撐，我們持續成功地落實並執行這項策略。

We increased firmwide revenues by roughly 60%. We grew EPS by 144%. We improved our returns by 500 basis points, and we delivered a total shareholder return of over 340%, the most of our peer group over this time frame.

我們將全公司營收提升約 60%。我們將每股盈餘（EPS）成長 144%。我們將報酬率提升 500 個基點，並為股東帶來超過 340% 的總股東報酬率，在此期間為同業中最高。

As you can see on page 2, we achieved this while also materially improving the risk profile of the firm and enhancing the resilience of our earnings. We have doubled our more durable revenues. We have reduced historical principal investments by over 90% from roughly $64 billion down to $6 billion.

如第 2 頁所示，我們在達成上述成果的同時，也大幅改善公司的風險概況，並提升獲利的韌性。我們將更具持續性的收入翻倍。我們將歷史性的自營投資規模自約 640 億美元降低逾 90%，降至 60 億美元。

The results of these multi-year efforts to scale capitalized businesses and reduce our capital intensity were reflected in our most recent CCAR stress test, where we've driven a 320 basis point improvement in our stress capital buffer. All in, we have strengthened and grown the firm to a relentless focus on delivering excellence to our clients.

這些多年來擴大資本化業務並降低資本密集度的努力成果，也反映在我們最近一次 CCAR 壓力測試中：我們的壓力資本緩衝（SCB）改善了 320 個基點。總體而言，我們在強化並壯大公司的同時，始終以不懈的專注為客戶提供卓越服務。

Turning to page 3. I want to highlight our strong execution in 2025. Our success is fueled by our world-class interconnected franchises that deliver one Goldman Sachs to our clients around the globe. In Global Banking & Markets, we maintained our position as the number one M&A advisor in investment banking and number one Equities franchise alongside our leading position in FICC.

接著看第 3 頁。我想強調我們在 2025 年的強勁執行力。我們的成功來自世界級、彼此互聯的業務平台，為全球客戶提供「一個高盛」的整體服務。在全球銀行與市場（GBM）方面，我們在投資銀行業務中維持併購（M&A）顧問第一名的地位，並在股票（Equities）業務保持第一名，同時在固定收益、貨幣與商品（FICC）亦維持領先地位。

We improved our standing with the top 150 clients in these businesses, which has contributed to 350 basis points of wallet share gains in GBM since 2019. We significantly increased our more durable FICC and Equities financing revenues, which grew to a new record of $11.4 billion for the year and generated returns in excess of 16% in the segment.

我們提升了在這些業務中前 150 大客戶的排名，這也促成自 2019 年以來 GBM 錢包份額（wallet share）增加 350 個基點。我們大幅提升更具持續性的 FICC 與股票融資收入，全年成長至 114 億美元的新紀錄，並在該分部創造超過 16% 的報酬率。

In Asset & Wealth Management, we are a top 5 active asset manager, a leading alternatives franchise, and a premier ultra-high net worth wealth manager. We've consistently grown more durable Management and other fees and Private banking and lending revenues, which were both records in 2025 and also raised a record $115 billion in alternatives. Our strong execution has led to improvement in both the margins and the returns in this segment.

在資產與財富管理（AWM）方面，我們是全球前五大的主動式資產管理機構、領先的另類投資平台，以及頂尖的超高淨值財富管理機構。我們持續成長更具持續性的管理費及其他費用，以及私人銀行與放款收入；兩者在 2025 年皆創下新高，另類投資募資亦創下 1,150 億美元的紀錄。我們強勁的執行力帶動該分部的利潤率與報酬率雙雙改善。

Importantly, we're taking the final steps needed to narrow our strategic focus. In addition to completing the transition of the General Motors credit card program last August, last week, we announced an agreement to transition the Apple card portfolio.

重要的是，我們正在完成進一步收斂策略重點所需的最後步驟。除了去年 8 月完成通用汽車（General Motors）信用卡計畫的移轉之外，上週我們也宣布達成協議，將移轉 Apple Card 的投資組合。

Let's turn to page 4 for a deeper dive on our franchises, starting with investment banking, where we have been the number one M&A advisor for 23 consecutive years. Very few, if any, service businesses of our size can claim long-standing leadership to this degree.

接著看第 4 頁，更深入檢視我們的業務平台，先從投資銀行談起；我們已連續 23 年成為併購（M&A）顧問第一名。以我們這樣的規模而言，能在服務型產業中長期維持如此程度的領導地位者，即使有也屈指可數。

This is a reflection of the strength of our client relationships as well as the quality of our people and the advice and execution capabilities they bring to our clients. Since 2020, we've generated an incremental $5 billion in advisory revenues versus the number two competitor.

這反映了我們客戶關係的深厚實力，以及我們人才的素質，和他們為客戶帶來的建議能力與執行能力。自 2020 年以來，我們在顧問收入方面相較第二名競爭對手多創造了 50 億美元的增量。

And in 2025 alone, we've advised on more than $1.6 trillion of announced M&A transaction volumes over $250 billion ahead of the next closest peer. Over the last year, we've seen high levels of client engagement across our investment banking franchise, and we expect activity to accelerate in 2026. Our outlook is supported by a number of catalysts.

僅在 2025 年，我們就為已宣布的併購交易提供顧問服務，交易量超過 1.6 兆美元，比下一家最接近的同業高出逾 2,500 億美元。過去一年，我們在投資銀行平台各領域都看到高度的客戶參與度，並預期 2026 年活動將加速。我們的展望受到多項催化因素支持。

Corporate focus on strategically positioning, scale and innovation. The tremendous public and private capital fueling growth in AI. As well as a strong pickup in sponsor activity, given our best in class sponsor franchise, we're especially well positioned to help sponsors deploy the $1 trillion of dry powder they hold and monetize the roughly $4 trillion of value across their portfolio companies.

企業更聚焦於策略定位、規模化與創新。大量公募與私募資本正推動 AI 成長。此外，鑑於我們同級最佳的贊助商（sponsor）平台，贊助商活動也明顯回升；我們特別具備優勢，協助贊助商部署其持有的 1 兆美元待投資金（dry powder），並將其投資組合公司中約 4 兆美元的價值變現。

Increased levels of engagement are reflected in our backlog, which stands at its highest level in four years. M&A transactions often kick off a flywheel of activity across our entire franchise. Whether it's acquisition financing, hedging activity, secondary market making or investing opportunities for AWM clients, it is unquestionable that there is a significant multiplier effect. And as the number one advisor for over two decades, we are uniquely positioned to capture the significant forward opportunity.

參與度提升也反映在我們的在手訂單（backlog）上，目前已達四年來最高水準。併購交易往往會帶動我們整個業務平台的連鎖效應。無論是併購融資、避險活動、次級市場做市，或是為 AWM 客戶提供投資機會，都無可否認存在顯著的乘數效應。而作為連續二十多年排名第一的顧問，我們具備獨特優勢，可把握可觀的未來機會。

Moving to page 5. Another growth engine for GBM has been our leading origination and financing businesses. Last year, we announced the creation of the Capital Solutions Group, formalizing a hub to provide our clients a comprehensive suite of financing, origination, structuring and risk management offerings across both public and private markets.

接著看第 5 頁。GBM 的另一個成長引擎是我們領先的承銷發行與融資業務。去年我們宣布成立資本解決方案團隊（Capital Solutions Group），正式建立一個樞紐，為客戶在公募與私募市場提供涵蓋融資、發行、結構設計與風險管理的完整產品與服務。

On the public side, we are optimistic about the outlook for equity and debt underwriting, particularly amid the resurgence in the IPO market and a higher acquisition finance related activity. We have a long-standing track record and leading market positions.

在公募市場方面，我們對股票與債券承銷的前景保持樂觀，特別是在 IPO 市場復甦以及與併購融資相關活動增加的背景下。我們擁有長期的實績與領先的市場地位。

On the private side, our ability to structure holistic solutions has led to a number of asset-backed financings across infrastructure, transportation and data centers supported by strong origination structuring that feed opportunities across our client franchise and our asset management platform.

在私募市場方面，我們建構整體性解決方案的能力，促成了多項以資產為擔保的融資，涵蓋基礎建設、運輸與資料中心；並在強勁的發行與結構設計支持下，為我們的客戶平台與資產管理平台帶來更多機會。

These capabilities have supported our deliberate strategy to grow our more durable financing revenues, providing a ballast to our results and comprising 37% of total FY and equity revenues in 2025. Since 2021, these have increased at a 17% CAGR, and with risk management always top of mind, we still expect to prudently drive growth from here.

這些能力支撐了我們有意識地擴大更具韌性的融資收入之策略，為我們的業績提供穩定支撐，並在2025年占總FY及股票收入的37%。自2021年以來，這些收入以17%的複合年增長率（CAGR）成長；在風險管理始終為首要考量之下，我們仍預期將在此基礎上審慎推動成長。

On page 6, we illustrate the strength and resilience of the FICC and Equities intermediation businesses. We have demonstrated - where we have a demonstrated ability to deliver strong results in a broad array of market environments. While client activity levels in different asset classes ebb and flow in any given quarter, our overall results have been remarkably consistent over time.

在第6頁，我們展示FICC與股票（Equities）中介業務的實力與韌性。我們已證明——在各式各樣的市場環境中，我們具備交出強勁成果的能力。雖然不同資產類別的客戶活動水準在任何單一季度都會起伏變化，但我們的整體業績長期以來一直相當穩定。

This reflects the breadth and diversification of these businesses which have been bolstered by our share gains. We see even more opportunities to further strengthen our franchise. This includes investing to improve our market-making capabilities and broaden offerings for active and passive ETF issuers.

這反映了這些業務的廣度與多元化，而我們的市占提升亦進一步強化了這些優勢。我們看到更多機會可進一步強化我們的特許經營優勢。這包括投資以提升我們的做市能力，並為主動與被動ETF發行人擴大產品與服務範疇。

In addition, we are working to close share gaps with key client segments, including insurers, wealth managers, and RIAs, as well as in certain product areas like corporate derivatives. Geographically, we are looking to close the share gap in Asia. In part, by focusing on these areas.

此外，我們正致力於縮小與關鍵客戶族群之間的市占差距，包括保險公司、財富管理機構與註冊投資顧問（RIA），以及在公司衍生性商品等特定產品領域。在地域方面，我們正尋求縮小在亞洲的市占差距。部分將透過聚焦於上述領域來達成。

Turning to page 7, our scaled Asset & Wealth Management business has $3.6 trillion in assets under supervision with global breadth and depth across products and solutions. We've grown more durable revenues across management and other fees in private banking and lending at a 12% CAGR ahead of our target, and we continue to see significant opportunities across wealth management, alternatives and solutions.

轉至第7頁，我們具規模的資產與財富管理（Asset & Wealth Management）業務，監督資產規模達3.6兆美元，並在產品與解決方案上具備全球性的廣度與深度。我們在私人銀行與放款的管理費及其他費用方面，已以12%的複合年增長率（CAGR）擴大更具韌性的收入，優於我們的目標；同時，我們在財富管理、另類投資與解決方案方面仍看到顯著機會。

We have also improved our AWM margins and returns and given our growth outlook across these businesses, we are setting new targets. We are increasing our pre-tax margin to 30 – pre-tax margin target to 30%, which will help drive high teen returns in AWM over the medium term. Let's dive deeper into our key growth opportunities, starting with wealth management on page 8.

我們也改善了AWM的利潤率與報酬；鑑於我們對這些業務的成長展望，我們正設定新的目標。我們將稅前利潤率目標提高至30%（稅前利潤率目標為30%），這將有助於在中期推動AWM達到十幾%的高報酬。讓我們更深入探討關鍵成長機會，先從第8頁的財富管理開始。

Over the last 50 years, we have built a premier franchise with $1.9 trillion in client assets that is centered around meeting the distinctive investing, planning, and borrowing needs of the ultra-high net worth individuals, family offices, endowments, and foundations.

過去50年來，我們打造了一個頂尖的特許經營平台，客戶資產達1.9兆美元，核心在於滿足超高淨值個人、家族辦公室、捐贈基金與基金會在投資、規劃與借貸方面的獨特需求。

Over the last five years, we drove long-term fee-based inflows at an annual pace of 6% and grew wealth management revenues at a CAGR of 11%. We expect further growth from here. Specifically, we are broadening our client base by increasing the number of advisers and content specialists globally. We're expanding our loan product offerings in line with client demand.

過去五年，我們以每年6%的速度推動長期以費用為基礎的資金淨流入，並使財富管理收入以11%的複合年增長率（CAGR）成長。我們預期未來仍將持續成長。具體而言，我們正透過在全球增加顧問與內容專家的人數來擴大客戶基礎。我們也將依據客戶需求擴展放款產品供給。

We are enhancing alternative investment offerings to facilitate clients moving closer to their optimal target allocation. And continuing, we are continually elevating the overall client experience, including via enhanced digital offerings and more expansive thought leadership engagements that lever the convening power of Goldman Sachs. To sharpen our focus on future growth and wealth management, we are introducing a new target of 5% long-term fee-based net inflows annually across the platform.

我們正強化另類投資產品，以協助客戶更接近其最佳目標資產配置。此外，我們持續提升整體客戶體驗，包括透過更強化的數位服務，以及更廣泛的思想領導力交流活動，運用高盛（Goldman Sachs）的號召與凝聚力。為了更聚焦於未來成長與財富管理，我們提出一項新目標：全平台每年長期以費用為基礎的資金淨流入達5%。

On page 9, we highlight our other key growth opportunities in Asset & Wealth Management: alternatives and solutions. We have a leading alternatives platform where we've raised $438 billion since our 2020 investor day, and we have grown alternatives management and other fees to a record $2.4 billion.

在第9頁，我們重點介紹資產與財富管理中的其他關鍵成長機會：另類投資與解決方案。我們擁有領先的另類投資平台，自2020年投資人日以來已募集4,380億美元，並將另類投資管理費及其他費用提升至創紀錄的24億美元。

We continue to scale our flagship fund programs while concurrently developing new strategies. Given our success in strengthening and growing our alternative platforms, we believe we can raise between $75 and $100 billion annually on a sustainable basis. As these funds continue to be deployed, we expect double-digit growth in alternative management and other fees.

我們持續擴大旗艦基金計畫的規模，同時開發新策略。鑑於我們在強化並擴張另類投資平台方面的成功，我們相信可在可持續的基礎上每年募集750億至1,000億美元。隨著這些基金持續投入部署，我們預期另類投資管理費及其他費用將呈現雙位數成長。

We expect fee-paying alternative assets under supervision to reach $750 billion by 2030. This further supports our existing target of generating $1 billion in incentive fees annually. We're also pleased with the progress across our solutions business, where we see secular growth in demand for our products and services.

我們預期至2030年，收取費用的另類資產監督規模將達7,500億美元。這也進一步支持我們既有目標：每年產生10億美元的績效費（incentive fees）。我們也對解決方案業務的進展感到滿意，並看到市場對我們產品與服務的需求呈現長期結構性成長。

We are the number one outsourced CIO manager in the US, providing clients a one-stop shop for their investment needs, advice, portfolio construction, risk management, and hedging, and we've won significant global mandates this year from firms including Eli Lilly and Shell. We are also the number one separately managed account platform and the second largest insurance solutions provider.

我們是美國排名第一的外包CIO管理人，為客戶提供一站式服務，涵蓋其投資需求、建議、投資組合建構、風險管理與避險；今年我們亦贏得多項全球委任案，客戶包括禮來（Eli Lilly）與殼牌（Shell）等公司。我們同時是排名第一的全權委託帳戶（SMA）平台，以及第二大保險解決方案提供者。

Looking forward, we see continued opportunities for growth, including in third-party wealth in the context of alternative offerings, ETFs, and customized solutions like direct indexing. In addition, we are expanding our capabilities in the retirement channel via partnerships, further deepening our strong relationships with insurers and enhancing our offerings for institutional clients, including sovereign wealth funds.

展望未來，我們仍看到持續成長的機會，包括在另類投資產品、ETF，以及如直接指數化（direct indexing）等客製化解決方案脈絡下的第三方財富業務。此外，我們正透過合作夥伴關係擴展在退休通路的能力，進一步深化與保險公司的強健關係，並強化我們對機構客戶（包括主權財富基金）的產品與服務。

Turning to page 10, building on our strong organic growth, we're accelerating our growth trajectory in Asset & Wealth Management through our recent strategic partnership and acquisitions. Our collaboration with T. Rowe Price will deliver a range of public and private market solutions for retirement and wealth investors. Last month, we announced the launch of co-branded model portfolios, the first of four planned product offerings.

轉至第10頁，在強勁的內生成長基礎上，我們透過近期的策略合作與併購，加速資產與財富管理的成長軌跡。我們與普信（T. Rowe Price）的合作，將為退休與財富投資人提供一系列公開與私募市場的解決方案。上月，我們宣布推出聯名（co-branded）模型投資組合，這是四項規劃產品供給中的第一項。

We recently closed the acquisition of Industry ventures, venture capital platform that adds an attractive technology investment capability to our market-leading secondaries investing franchise XIG, where we now have over $500 billion in assets under supervision.

我們近期完成對Industry Ventures的收購；該創投平台為我們的市場領先次級市場投資特許經營業務XIG增添具吸引力的科技投資能力，而我們目前的監督資產已超過5,000億美元。

Most recently, we announced the acquisition of Innovator, which significantly scales our businesses to be in the top 10 of active ETF providers globally, particularly in the fast-growing outcome-based ETF segment. While the bar for transformational M&A remains very high, we will continue to look for ways to accelerate growth in Asset & Wealth Management.

最近，我們宣布收購Innovator，這將大幅擴大我們的業務規模，使我們躋身全球前十大主動式ETF提供者之列，尤其是在快速成長的結果導向（outcome-based）ETF領域。儘管對具變革性的併購（M&A）門檻仍然非常高，我們將持續尋找加速資產與財富管理成長的方法。

Turning to page 11, we have a long history of prudent and dynamic capital management, and our philosophy remains unchanged. We prioritize investing across our client franchises at attractive returns, sustainably growing our dividends, and returning excess capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks.

轉至第11頁，我們在審慎且具動態性的資本管理方面擁有悠久歷史，而我們的理念維持不變。我們優先在客戶特許經營領域進行具吸引力報酬的投資、可持續地提高股利，並以庫藏股回購的形式將多餘資本回饋股東。

We see meaningful opportunities to deploy capital across our franchise. This includes leaning into acquisition financing as M&A activity accelerates, supporting growth in equities and financing, and increasing lending to our ultra-high net worth clients. That said, given our strong earnings generation capability and excess capital positions, we also have capacity to return more capital to shareholders.

我們看到在整個特許經營版圖中部署資本的重大機會。這包括在併購活動加速之際加大併購融資力度、支持股票與融資業務成長，以及增加對超高淨值客戶的放款。儘管如此，鑑於我們強勁的獲利創造能力與超額資本部位，我們也有能力向股東回饋更多資本。

Today we are announcing a $0.50 increase in our quarterly dividend to $4.50 representing a 50% increase from a year ago. In addition, we have $32 billion of remaining buyback capacity under our current share repurchase authorization, and while we are mindful of our current stock price, we will remain dynamic in executing repurchases.

今天我們宣布將季度股利提高0.50美元至4.50美元，較一年前增加50%。此外，在現行股票回購授權下，我們仍有320億美元的剩餘回購額度；雖然我們會留意目前股價水準，但在執行回購方面將保持彈性與動態。

Turning to page 12. As we continue to grow the firm and strategically deploy our balance sheet to support client activity, our unwavering focus remains on maintaining a disciplined risk management framework and robust standards.

轉至第12頁。隨著我們持續擴大公司規模，並策略性地運用資產負債表以支持客戶活動，我們始終如一的重點仍是維持嚴謹的風險管理架構與健全的標準。

We've been on a multi-year journey to diversify our funding footprint, including building strategic deposit raising channels such as private banking, markets and transaction banking. This has significantly improved our funding structure. Our deposits have grown to $501 billion and now represent roughly 40% of our total funding.

我們已展開為期多年的旅程，以多元化我們的資金來源版圖，包括建立策略性的存款募集管道，例如私人銀行、金融市場及交易銀行。這已顯著改善我們的資金結構。我們的存款已成長至5,010億美元，現約占我們總資金來源的40%。

We continue to optimize activity in our bank equity, which held 35% of firmwide assets at year-end versus 25% at the time of our first investor day. Overall, this progress underscores our commitment to the diversification and resiliency of our funding profile, which has improved our funding costs and our financial flexibility.

我們持續優化銀行自有股權（bank equity）相關活動；截至年末，其占全公司資產的35%，相較於我們首次投資人日當時的25%有所提升。整體而言，這些進展凸顯我們對資金來源結構多元化與韌性的承諾，並已改善我們的資金成本與財務彈性。

All in, a robust capital position, diversified funding mix, dynamic liquidity management, and strong risk discipline are foundational to the strength and stability of our balance sheet, allowing us to meet the evolving demands of our clients.

總體而言，穩健的資本部位、多元化的資金組合、動態的流動性管理，以及嚴謹的風險紀律，是我們資產負債表強度與穩定性的基石，使我們能滿足客戶不斷演變的需求。

Moving to page 13. Last quarter we announced the one Goldman Sachs 3.0. We announced the launch of one Goldman Sachs 3.0, our new operating model propelled by AI. We are excited to embark on this effort, starting with six work streams we identified as ripe for disruption.

接著看第13頁。上季我們宣布了 one Goldman Sachs 3.0。我們宣布推出 one Goldman Sachs 3.0——由AI驅動的全新營運模式。我們很期待展開這項工作，首先從我們辨識出最適合被顛覆的六個工作流著手。

Our people have begun thorough assessments of opportunities for efficiency, and we will then we will then invest to re-engineer these processes from the ground up. We will be measuring and driving accountability, and we will update you over the coming year with additional details regarding these metrics.

我們的同仁已開始對提升效率的機會進行全面評估，接著我們將投入資源，從零開始重新設計這些流程。我們將衡量並推動問責機制，並會在未來一年向各位更新與這些指標相關的更多細節。

Let's turn to page 14. The exceptional service we provide our clients is a direct result of our people who are our most important assets. Our client franchise is powered by our best in class talent and culture, and it is critical that we continue to invest in them.

接著看第14頁。我們為客戶提供的卓越服務，直接來自於我們的員工——他們是我們最重要的資產。我們的客戶特許經營（client franchise）由一流的人才與文化所驅動，因此我們持續投資於他們至關重要。

Goldman Sachs is an aspirational brand around the globe, which allows us to attract quality talent at all levels. As an example, in 2025, we had over 1.1 million experienced hire applicants, a 33% increase from last year, and in our summer internship program we maintained a selection rate of less than 1%.

高盛在全球是一個令人嚮往的品牌，使我們能在各個層級吸引優秀人才。例如在2025年，我們收到超過110萬份具經驗人才的應徵申請，較去年增加33%；而在暑期實習計畫中，我們維持低於1%的錄取率。

Many of these individuals will have long careers at the firm, exemplified by the fact that roughly 45% of our partners started as campus hires. And while some leave for opportunities elsewhere, these firms often become important clients of Goldman Sachs.

其中許多人將在本公司擁有長期職涯；例如約45%的合夥人是從校園招募起步。即使有些人離開去其他地方發展，這些公司往往也會成為高盛的重要客戶。

Today, more than 650 of our alumni are in C-suite roles at companies with either a market cap greater than $1 billion or assets under management greater than $5 billion. On page 15, we outline our firm wide through the cycle targets.

目前，我們有超過650位校友在市值超過10億美元或資產管理規模（AUM）超過50億美元的公司擔任C-suite高階主管職務。在第15頁，我們概述公司層級的跨景氣循環目標（through the cycle targets）。

Given the successful execution against our strategic priorities, we are confident that we will continue to deliver on these, and in the near term, we believe there are catalysts that position us to exceed our return targets.

鑑於我們成功落實各項策略優先事項，我們有信心將持續達成這些目標；而在短期內，我們認為存在一些催化因素，使我們有望超越既定的報酬目標。

We have the number one M&A advisory - we are the number one M&A advisor within our leading Global Banking & Markets franchise that is poised to capitalize on a cyclical upswing in investment banking activity, a scaled Asset & Wealth Management business with higher margin and return targets and clear opportunities for future growth and tailwinds from a more balanced regulatory regime.

我們是第一名的併購（M&A）顧問——在我們領先的全球銀行與市場（Global Banking & Markets）特許經營中，我們是排名第一的M&A顧問，並已蓄勢待發，把握投資銀行活動的景氣循環回升；同時，我們擁有具規模的資產與財富管理（Asset & Wealth Management）業務，具備更高的利潤率與報酬目標、明確的未來成長機會，以及在更均衡的監管制度下所帶來的順風。

In closing, I am incredibly proud of what we have delivered, and I'm confident that we will continue to serve our clients with excellence and drive strong returns for our shareholders. Let me now turn it over to Denis to cover our financial results in more detail.

最後，我對我們所交出的成果感到無比自豪，也有信心我們將持續以卓越表現服務客戶，並為股東創造強勁報酬。接下來我把時間交給Denis，請他更詳細說明我們的財務結果。

Thank you, David, and good morning. Let's start with our results on page 16 of the presentation. In the fourth quarter we generated revenues of $13.5 billion earnings per share of $14.01, an ROE of 16%, and a ROTE of 17.1%.

謝謝你，David，大家早安。我們先從簡報第16頁的業績開始。第四季我們創造135億美元營收、每股盈餘（EPS）14.01美元、股東權益報酬率（ROE）16%，以及有形股東權益報酬率（ROTE）17.1%。

For the full year, we delivered earnings per share of $51.32, a 27% increase versus last year. An ROE of 15% and a ROTE of 16%, improving 230 and 250 basis points respectively, compared to 2024. As David mentioned, we announced an agreement to transition the Apple Card portfolio.

全年而言，我們的每股盈餘為51.32美元，較去年成長27%。ROE為15%，ROTE為16%，相較2024年分別提升230與250個基點。如David所提，我們宣布達成協議以移轉Apple Card投資組合。

For the quarter, the transition had a net positive impact of $0.46 to EPS and 50 basis points to ROE. As a $2.3 billion revenue reduction was more than offset by a $2.5 billion reserve release upon moving the portfolio to held for sale.

就本季而言，該移轉對每股盈餘帶來0.46美元的淨正面影響，並使ROE提升50個基點。原因在於，23億美元的營收減少，已被在將該投資組合轉列為待售（held for sale）時釋放的25億美元備抵（reserve release）所抵銷且有餘。

Given that we are taking our final steps to narrow our strategic focus, you will have seen we implemented minor organizational changes and made corresponding updates to our segments, which are incorporated in our earnings presentation today.

鑑於我們正採取最後步驟以收斂策略重點，各位應已看到我們實施了些微的組織調整，並對應更新了各業務分部；這些變更已納入我們今天的財報簡報中。

Turning to results by segment. Starting on page 18, Global Banking & Markets produced record revenues of $41.5 billion for the year, up 18% amid broad-based strength versus last year. In the fourth quarter, investment banking fees of $2.6 billion rose 25% year-over-year, driven by increases in each of advisory, debt underwriting, and equity underwriting.

接著看各分部表現。從第18頁開始，全球銀行與市場（Global Banking & Markets）全年創下415億美元的創紀錄營收，較去年成長18%，反映各項業務普遍走強。第四季投資銀行手續費為26億美元，年增25%，主要由顧問業務、債券承銷與股票承銷三者皆成長所帶動。

For 2025, we maintained our number one position in the league tables for announced and completed M&A and also ranked first in leverage lending. We ranked third in equity underwriting and second in common stock offerings, convertibles and high yield offerings.

在2025年，我們在已宣布與已完成的M&A排行榜（league tables）中維持第一名，同時在槓桿貸款（leveraged lending）亦排名第一。我們在股票承銷排名第三，並在普通股發行、可轉換證券及高收益發行方面排名第二。

Even with very strong accruals in the fourth quarter, our investment banking backlog rose for a seventh consecutive quarter to a four year high, primarily driven by advisory. As David mentioned, we are optimistic on the investment banking outlook for 2026 and the multiplier effect this activity has across our franchise.

即使第四季應計項目（accruals）非常強勁，我們的投資銀行待辦業務（backlog）仍連續第七季上升，達到四年高點，主要由顧問業務帶動。如David所提，我們對2026年的投資銀行展望保持樂觀，以及這些活動在我們整體特許經營中所帶來的乘數效應。

FICC net revenues were $3.1 billion in the quarter, up 12% year-over-year. In intermediation, the 15% year over year increase was driven by rates and commodities. And in financing, revenues rose 7% to a new record on better results within mortgages and structured lending.

固定收益、貨幣與商品（FICC）本季淨營收為31億美元，年增12%。在中介業務（intermediation）方面，年增15%主要由利率與商品帶動。在融資業務（financing）方面，受惠於房貸與結構性放款表現改善，營收成長7%並創下新高。

Equities net revenues were $4.3 billion in the quarter. Equities intermediation revenues were $2.2 billion up 11% year-over-year on better performance in derivatives. Equities financing results hit a quarterly record of $2.1 billion up 42% versus the prior year amid record average balances in prime. For the full year, total Equities net revenues were a record $16.5 billion surpassing last year's record by over $3 billion, helped by the multi-year investments we've made in this business.

股票業務（Equities）本季淨營收為43億美元。股票中介業務營收為22億美元，年增11%，主要因衍生性商品表現較佳。股票融資業務創下單季紀錄達21億美元，較去年成長42%，主要受惠於主經紀（prime）平均餘額創新高。全年而言，股票業務淨營收創紀錄達165億美元，較去年紀錄高出逾30億美元，反映我們多年來對該業務的投資成效。

Moving to Asset & Wealth Management on page 20. For 2025, revenues were $16.7 billion and our pre-tax margin was 25%. Segment ROE for the year was 12.5%, and in the mid-teens, when adjusted for the 230 basis point impact from HPI and its related equity, as well as the FDIC special assessment fee.

接著看第20頁的資產與財富管理（Asset & Wealth Management）。2025年營收為167億美元，稅前利潤率為25%。該分部全年ROE為12.5%；若調整HPI及其相關股權帶來的230個基點影響，以及FDIC特別評估費用（special assessment fee），則ROE落在十幾%的中段。

In the quarter, Management and other fees were a record $3.1 billion up 5% sequentially and 10% year-over-year. Private banking and lending revenues rose 5% year-over-year to $776 million as higher results from lending and deposits related to wealth management clients were partially offset by NIM compression in the markets deposit portfolio.

本季管理費及其他費用創紀錄達31億美元，較前一季成長5%，年增10%。私人銀行與放款營收年增5%至7.76億美元；財富管理客戶相關放款與存款帶來的較佳表現，部分被市場存款投資組合的淨利差（NIM）收窄所抵銷。

Incentive fees for the quarter were $181 million bringing our full year incentive fees to $489 million up 24% versus the prior year. We expect to make further progress in 2026 towards our annual target of $1 billion. Now moving to page 21.

本季的績效酬金為1.81億美元，使我們全年績效酬金達到4.89億美元，較前一年成長24%。我們預期在2026年將朝年度10億美元目標再取得進一步進展。接下來請翻到第21頁。

Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $3.6 trillion, driven by $66 billion of long-term fee-based net inflows across asset classes and $50 billion of liquidity inflows. In conjunction with our new long-term fee-based inflow target in wealth management, we are providing enhanced disclosures outlining inflows and long-term AUS by channel.

截至本季末，監督管理資產總額（AUS）創下3.6兆美元的新高，主要受各資產類別長期、以費用為基礎的淨流入660億美元，以及流動性資金流入500億美元所帶動。配合我們在財富管理業務新增的長期、以費用為基礎的資金流入目標，我們將提供更強化的揭露，按通路說明資金流入與長期AUS。

Turning to page 22 on alternatives. Alternative AUS totaled $420 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, driving $645 million in management and other fees. Gross third-party fundraising was $45 billion in the fourth quarter and $115 billion for the year.

接著看第22頁的另類投資。第四季末另類投資AUS合計4,200億美元，帶動管理費及其他費用6.45億美元。第四季第三方募資總額為450億美元，全年為1,150億美元。

Moving to page 24, our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $238 billion up sequentially reflecting higher collateralized lending balances. Provision for credit losses reflected a net benefit of $2.1 billion including the previously mentioned reserve release associated with the Apple Card portfolio.

翻到第24頁，本季末我們的貸款組合總額為2,380億美元，較前一季上升，反映擔保放款餘額增加。信用損失準備反映淨回沖利益21億美元，其中包含先前提及與Apple Card投資組合相關的準備金釋回。

Let's turn to expenses on page 25. Total operating expenses for the year were $37.5 billion. Compensation expenses were $18.9 billion and included $250 million of severance costs, driving a full year compensation ratio net of provisions of 31.8%. Full year non-compensation costs of $18.6 billion were up 9% year-over-year, driven primarily by higher transaction-based activity.

接著看第25頁的費用。全年總營運費用為375億美元。薪酬費用為189億美元，其中包含2.5億美元的資遣成本，使全年（扣除提存後）的薪酬比率為31.8%。全年非薪酬成本為186億美元，年增9%，主要由較高的交易型活動所帶動。

While the operating environment for our businesses continues to improve, we remain committed to our key strategic priority of operating more efficiently and are maintaining a rigorous focus on advancing our productivity and efficiency initiatives as part of one Goldman Sachs 3.0.

儘管我們各項業務的營運環境持續改善，我們仍致力於「更高效率營運」這一關鍵策略優先事項，並將在「One Goldman Sachs 3.0」架構下，持續以嚴謹的態度推進生產力與效率提升計畫。

Our effective tax rate for 2025 was 21.4%. For 2026, we expect a tax rate of approximately 20%.

我們2025年的有效稅率為21.4%。對於2026年，我們預期稅率約為20%。

Next capital on slide 26. Our common equity tier one ratio was 14.4% at the end of the fourth quarter under the standardized approach. In the fourth quarter, we returned approximately $4.2 billion to common shareholders, including common stock repurchases of $3 billion and dividends of $1.2 billion.

接下來看第26頁的資本。在標準法下，我們第四季末普通股權第一級資本比率（CET1）為14.4%。第四季我們向普通股股東回饋約42億美元，其中包含30億美元的普通股回購與12億美元的股利。

In conclusion, our strong performance this year reflects the strength of our client franchise and our multi-year execution on our strategic priorities. We see a highly constructive setup for 2026 as the improving investment banking environment and our deep client connectivity position us to capture significant opportunities across the entire firm.

總結而言，我們今年的強勁表現反映了客戶平台的實力，以及我們多年來對策略優先事項的落實執行。我們認為2026年的布局相當有利；隨著投資銀行環境改善，加上我們深厚的客戶連結，使我們得以把握全公司範圍內的重大機會。

At the same time, we remain mindful that the operating environment can shift quickly. Economic growth, policy uncertainty, geopolitical developments and market volatility are factors we continue to monitor closely. And as always, disciplined risk management will remain central to how we serve clients and allocate resources.

同時，我們也清楚營運環境可能快速變化。經濟成長、政策不確定性、地緣政治發展與市場波動，都是我們持續密切關注的因素。一如既往，嚴謹的風險管理仍將是我們服務客戶與配置資源的核心。

Even so with solid momentum and growth opportunities across our businesses, we are optimistic on the forward outlook for Goldman Sachs and remain confident in our ability to deliver for clients and drive strong returns for shareholders.

儘管如此，憑藉各項業務穩健的動能與成長機會，我們對高盛的前景仍持樂觀態度，並對我們為客戶創造價值、為股東帶來強勁報酬的能力保持信心。

With that, we'll now open up the line for questions.

接下來我們開放提問。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen. We will now take a moment to compile the Q&A roster. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。各位女士、先生。我們現在將稍作片刻整理問答名單。（接線員指示）

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore。

Hi, thanks very much. Great, thoughts and detail in there. One narrow first. I guess I'll ask it simply, how do you plan to scale wealth from here. And I want to include that if you could, your aspirations, meaning you had a little experiment with United Capital, but like you're amazing in ultra-high net worth and I'm curious about the rest of wealth. You've done a couple of things in RIA land. So maybe we could talk about that and then zoom out after that. Thanks.

嗨，非常感謝。內容很棒，想法與細節都在裡面。先問一個比較聚焦的問題。我想簡單問：你們打算從這裡開始如何擴大財富管理規模？如果可以的話，也想把你們的企圖心納入討論：你們之前對United Capital做過一點實驗，但你們在超高淨值客群方面非常出色，我也好奇在財富管理其他部分的布局。你們在RIA領域也做了幾件事。所以也許我們可以先談這個，之後再拉高到更宏觀的層面。謝謝。

Sure. And I appreciate the question, Glenn. I think our ultra-high net worth franchise is extraordinary. I think we have a leading position here in the United States, strong, position, but obviously with room for more share and footprint in Europe and in Asia. But I think it's a highly differentiated offering for wealthy individuals and people that have very complex needs from a wealth perspective.

當然。Glenn，我很感謝這個問題。我認為我們的超高淨值客群平台非常卓越。我認為我們在美國處於領先地位，基礎穩固，但顯然在歐洲與亞洲仍有進一步提升市占與拓展版圖的空間。不過我認為，對於富裕個人以及在財富面有非常複雜需求的人士而言，這是一個高度差異化的服務方案。

That business scales with people. You heard in and technology, but you heard in our remarks that we're continuing to invest in a broadening the footprint and the coverage available and the resources to expand that ultra-high net worth footprint.

這項業務的規模擴張取決於人才。你也聽到我們提到科技，但你在我們的談話中也聽到，我們正持續投資，以擴大版圖、提升可提供的覆蓋與資源，來擴張超高淨值業務的觸及範圍。

As you point out, we did do an experiment with United Capital, but we've reached the conclusion that the right way for us, given our manufacturing capability and asset management to really explore broader access to wealth is through third-party wealth channels.

如你所指出，我們確實對United Capital做過一項實驗，但我們已得出結論：以我們的產品製造能力與資產管理能力而言，探索更廣泛的財富管理觸及方式，正確路徑是透過第三方財富通路。

And so I think, we're making very significant investments in our third-party wealth capability. That includes partnerships with RIAs and footprint with RIAs. And we have great product manufacturing capability we can use others distribution, very effectively given our brand and our very complete diverse product offering, and that will help us continue to scale but in direct full service wealth, we're going to stick with ultra-high net worth wealth.

因此我認為，我們正在對第三方財富能力進行非常重大的投資。這包括與RIA的合作夥伴關係，以及在RIA通路的布局。我們具備很強的產品製造能力，並可透過他人的通路進行分銷；憑藉我們的品牌與非常完整、多元的產品供給，這將非常有效，並有助於我們持續擴大規模；但在直接、全方位服務的財富管理方面，我們將持續聚焦於超高淨值客群。

And what's interesting is, obviously you've got a bunch of secular things going on that are growing the available people that need these services. You have a huge generational wealth transfer that's going on, that's bringing a whole new generation.

而有趣的是，顯然有許多長期結構性因素正在發生，推動需要這些服務的人口增加。你也看到一場巨大的世代財富移轉正在進行，帶來全新的一代。

In these services and it's a very fragmented business and we think we have a very differentiated offering with lots of upside and look, you heard what we said about our capabilities in wealth and our target to continue to grow those long-term fee-based wealth assets by 5%, as we go forward.

進入這些服務領域；而這是一個非常分散的產業，我們認為自己具備高度差異化的服務方案，且上行空間很大。你也聽到我們談到在財富管理方面的能力，以及我們的目標：未來持續將長期、以費用為基礎的財富資產成長5%。

I appreciate all that, David. Bigger picture, obviously really strong results, good backdrop. Middle of the range despite all these strong results because I think there's mixed operating leverage or people always want more operating leverage during big market peaks.

我很感謝這些說明，David。從更宏觀的角度看，結果顯然非常強勁，外部環境也不錯。儘管成果很強，但仍在區間中段，我想是因為營運槓桿有些混合，或是大家在市場高峰期總希望看到更高的營運槓桿。

So I'm going to flip the comment around and just ask, what's your level of confidence you've raised the floor with everything that you've laid out. Everything you've executed on because in the past when markets pull back off highs, returns for you and others would drift back to the like low double-digits and sometimes a little bit lower but like I guess I'm curious on how much you think with all that progress you've built, how much have you raised the floor.

所以我想把這個評論反過來問：你對於你們已經把「底部」抬高多少，有多大信心？就你們所闡述的一切、以及你們已經執行完成的一切而言，因為過去當市場從高點回落時，你們和其他同業的報酬會回到大約低雙位數，有時甚至更低；所以我好奇的是，隨著你們建立的這些進展，你們覺得到底把底部抬高了多少。

I think we've raised the floor, I think we've raised the floor meaningfully. Based on the work we've done, the growth that we've done. In particular, the growth of durable revenues, which will be less affected -- less affected -- not affected, but less affected if we get into some sort of a of a downturn or a more challenging environment. If you step back to our investor day, the firm's returns in the 10 years before our investor day averaged 9-and-change percent.

我認為我們已經把底部抬高了，而且是顯著地抬高。這是基於我們所做的工作與我們所達成的成長。特別是更具持久性的收入成長；若我們進入某種衰退或更具挑戰的環境，這些收入將較不受影響——較不受影響——不是不受影響，但會較不受影響。如果你回頭看我們投資人日之前的10年，公司報酬率平均約為9%多一點。

And so I think we now are operating with a Global Banking & Markets franchise that should run mid-teams through the cycle. That doesn't mean you couldn't get a very tough environment where it runs lower, but you can also get environments, and this is part of what we've said about 2026, where it has the potential to run higher, but I think we've uplifted the floor very significantly.

因此，我認為我們現在所運作的全球銀行與市場（Global Banking & Markets）平台，應該能在景氣循環中維持在中段水準。這並不表示不可能遇到非常艱困的環境而使其表現更低，但你也可能遇到某些環境——這也是我們談到 2026 年時所說的一部分——在那些環境下它有潛力跑得更高；不過我認為我們已非常顯著地把底部墊高了。

Now, of course, and a very severe downturns, it slows down activity. It impedes confidence, but I just think the firm is bigger, more diversified, much more durable and better positioned when we have that kind of environment than we've been before. Now I'm not going to predict the future, and I know, it's never a straight line, but I think we've uplifted it very materially.

當然，在非常嚴重的衰退中，活動會放緩。它會抑制信心，但我只是認為，相較於過去，公司的規模更大、更多元化、更具韌性，而且在那種環境下的定位也更好。我不會去預測未來，我也知道它從來不是一條直線，但我認為我們已在很大程度上把底部抬升了。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

Good morning. I guess maybe just sticking with the true cycle ROE, David, maybe the other end of the spectrum when I talk to investors just given where the stock's trading given the performance you've had and two structural things seem to be happening at Goldman Sachs. One is obviously the regulatory backdrop changing is creating more capital flex.

早安。我想也許就延續「穿越景氣循環的真實 ROE」這個話題，David，當我和投資人交流時，從另一個角度來看——考量到股價目前的交易水準、你們的表現，以及高盛似乎正在發生的兩個結構性變化。第一個顯然是監管背景的變化正在帶來更多資本彈性。

And the productive focus that you had doubled down with the Goldman Sachs 3.0. Is it fair for a shareholder to assume that absent like big peaks and offs that the business is rebasing to maybe something better than mid-teens, returns, towards closer to high 10s, or is that sort of misplaced and misunderstanding kind of the business dynamics?

以及你們在 Goldman Sachs 3.0 下加碼強化的生產力聚焦。對股東而言，是否可以合理地假設：在沒有出現像大幅高峰與回落那樣的情況下，這個業務的基準正在重設到可能優於「十幾％中段」的報酬，朝更接近「十幾％高段」的報酬走？還是說這樣的想法其實是誤置、也誤解了業務動態？

Well, I appreciate the question and look, our goal is going to continue to be to work very hard to do everything we can to continue to take the returns higher. We were very pointed in our comments on the last slide in that presentation that we're reaffirming our mid-teens targets.

我很感謝這個問題。你看，我們的目標會是持續非常努力，盡我們所能把報酬率再往上推。在那份簡報的最後一張投影片上，我們的措辭非常明確：我們重申我們「十幾％中段」的目標。

I certainly remember it. It's not that many quarters ago where many people on this call would ask questions about how we were going to get to mid teams. So we've arrived. I think we were pointed in saying this is an environment where the potential to be positioned to exceed targets in the near term is there, but as the previous set of questions just pointed out, there'll be other environments where there could be headwinds.

我當然記得。就在不久前的幾個季度，這通電話上很多人還在問我們要怎麼達到「十幾％中段」。所以我們已經到了。我認為我們也明確指出：在目前這種環境下，短期內確實有機會讓我們的定位能夠超越目標；但如同前一輪問題所指出的，也會有其他環境可能帶來逆風。

So I think we're very comfortable that we are operating as a mid-teens firm. We think that we can do things that over time will drive upside to that, but we're not going to set targets until we're very comfortable that we've further elevated the firm.

因此，我們非常有信心，我們正以一家「十幾％中段」報酬的公司在運作。我們認為，隨著時間推進，我們可以做一些事情來帶動上行空間，但在我們非常確信已進一步把公司抬升之前，我們不會設定新的目標。

I think one of the most important things coming out of the presentation is the next step in our Asset & Wealth Management journey to tell you that given the work we've done and the progress we've made, we now have more confidence that we can operate that business at a higher margin, 30%, which drives a higher return. And so we're comfortable putting that target out and that of course elevates the overall performance of the of the firm.

我認為這次簡報最重要的訊息之一，是我們資產與財富管理（Asset & Wealth Management, AWM）旅程的下一步：告訴各位，基於我們已完成的工作與取得的進展，我們現在更有信心能以更高的利潤率——30%——來運作這項業務，進而帶動更高的報酬。因此我們有信心提出這個目標，而這當然也會抬升公司整體的表現。

The other thing I just want to highlight that comes out of your comment is people think about the regulatory environment as changing the capital rules and giving us more capital flexibility, but I'd also highlight the regulatory environment of the last five years put costs and burdens on the firm that we now won't have going forward that actually gives us flexibility to invest over time in other things that drive growth.

另外，我也想強調你評論中帶出的一點：大家談監管環境時，往往聚焦在資本規則的改變、以及給我們更多資本彈性；但我也要指出，過去五年的監管環境為公司帶來了成本與負擔，而未來我們將不再承受其中一部分，這其實也讓我們有彈性，能隨時間投入到其他能帶動成長的事項上。

So it's not just the capital stuff that's important. It's also the fact that we and others in the industry were burdened by additional costs that now can be directed to what I call more productive growth and return for our clients and for our shareholders.

所以重要的不只是資本面。同樣重要的是，我們以及同業先前背負的額外成本，如今可以轉而投入我所稱的「更具生產力的成長」，並為客戶與股東帶來更好的報酬。

That's great, and I guess maybe a second one just on capital deployment so it's very clear the bar for M&A is high, but when you think about just the stock valuation today, the regulatory backdrop, there is a cycle or in our environment where there is room to do something transformational. Just give us a sense in terms of, do you see, this is the right time or the if the right opportunity presents itself to do something that would shift the mix boost the mix of AWM business a lot more or do you think that's kind of anti-Goldman's DNA to do something that would be too large or transformational.

很好。我想第二個問題可能是關於資本配置：很清楚併購（M&A）的門檻很高，但當你看今天的股價估值、監管背景，以及在某個循環或我們所處的環境中，確實可能有空間去做一些具變革性的事情。能否請你談談：你是否認為現在是合適的時點，或如果出現合適的機會，去做一件能大幅改變業務組合、顯著提高 AWM 業務占比的交易？還是你認為做一筆過大或過於變革性的交易，某種程度上違背高盛的 DNA？

I appreciate the question, Ebrahim, but I'm going to be very consistent with what I've said. Multiple times, with this question, I, we're very, we feel very good about what we did in 2025, the T. Rowe Partnership and the two small acquisitions, they fill in gaps. They accelerate our journey in Asset & Wealth Management. But the bar for doing something significant and transformational is very high. And it has to be high, one, because there are very few really great large businesses.

Ebrahim，我很感謝這個問題，但我會非常一致地重申我一直以來的說法。我已多次回答過這個問題：我們對 2025 年所做的事情感到非常滿意——T. Rowe 的合作夥伴關係以及兩筆小型收購，它們補足了缺口。它們加速了我們在資產與財富管理上的旅程。但要做一件重大且具變革性的交易，門檻非常高。而且門檻必須高，第一，因為真正優秀的大型企業非常少。

Most of them are not for sale and available. And I think the cultural aspects of Goldman Sachs and what makes Goldman Sachs unique and different. There has to be a tremendous sensitivity to integrating businesses into it to make sure that Goldman Sachs can continue to be Goldman Sachs.

其中大多數並不出售、也不在市場上可取得。此外，我認為高盛的文化面向，以及讓高盛獨特且與眾不同的特質。在把其他企業整合進來時，必須極度敏感與謹慎，以確保高盛仍能繼續是高盛。

And so, I won't say that we don't look at those things and think about those things, but I really, my key message is the bar is very high. I do think that we will see, other things like the things that we've done. That can accelerate our journey and therefore increase the growth trajectory of the Asset & Wealth Management business.

因此，我不會說我們不看這些機會、也不思考這些可能性，但我真正的核心訊息是：門檻非常高。我確實認為，我們會看到其他類似我們已做過的事情。那些事情可以加速我們的旅程，因而提高資產與財富管理業務的成長軌跡。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

Erika Najarian，瑞銀（UBS）。

Hi, good morning. I hate framing this question this way, but I can't think of a better way to frame it. In terms of the capital market cycle, ahead, what inning are we in? And as investors think about the scale of potential upside to Goldman. maybe compare and contrast the preconditions that you see for the capital markets backdrop in 2026 with 2021, and I'm only asking this question as investors try to think about the EPS potential of your company. And I think 2021, is sort of seen as like a ceiling in terms of what you could produce in this business.

嗨，早安。我不太喜歡用這種方式來框定問題，但我想不到更好的問法。就資本市場循環而言，往前看，我們現在處於第幾局（inning）？以及當投資人思考高盛潛在上行空間的規模時，能否請你比較並對照你所看到的 2026 年資本市場背景的前提條件與 2021 年的差異？我之所以這樣問，是因為投資人試圖評估你們公司的每股盈餘（EPS）潛力。而我認為 2021 年常被視為你們在這門生意中所能產出的「天花板」。

I'll give you a couple of things, Erika, to think about, and I appreciate the question. The first thing I'd just say is, as a student of these businesses for decades and decades and decades, I would bet you that 2021 is not the ceiling. That doesn't mean that in this cycle, we surpass 2021 because things can change and things can go wrong. But this business, when you go back and you step out and you look over, 25, 30 years, there's not a ceiling that hasn't been exceeded.

Erika，我給你幾點可以思考的方向，也謝謝你的問題。第一點我要說的是：作為研究這些業務數十年又數十年又數十年的人，我會跟你打賭，2021 年不是天花板。這並不表示在這一輪循環中我們一定會超越 2021，因為情況可能改變、也可能出錯。但這門生意，當你回頭拉長時間、以 25 到 30 年的尺度來看，沒有哪個天花板不曾被突破。

At some point down the road as you run through cycles, and I'm sure given the growth of market capital world and activity, the 2021 activity levels will be exceeded again. They might be exceeded in 2026. There was a slide that my team was showing me that shows a range of outcomes, including a conservative outcome for M&A base outcome for M&A, and a bull outcome for M&A. And the base outcome is pretty close to 2021, and the bull outcome is ahead of 2021.

在未來某個時間點，當你走過一輪又一輪循環，我很確定，隨著市值規模與活動的成長，2021 年的活動水準會再次被超越。它可能在 2026 年就被超越。我的團隊給我看過一張投影片，展示了一系列結果區間，包括併購（M&A）的保守情境、基準情境，以及多頭情境。而基準情境相當接近 2021 年，多頭情境則高於 2021 年。

I think the world is set up at the moment to be incredibly constructive in 2026 for M&A and capital markets activity, and I think the likely scenario is that it is a very good year for M&A and capital markets activity. What could change that?

我認為目前全球的環境設定，使得 2026 年對併購（M&A）與資本市場活動極具建設性；我認為較可能的情境是，那將會是併購與資本市場活動非常好的一年。什麼因素可能改變這一點？

Something could go on in the world, some sort of an exogenous event or a macro event that changes the sentiment. If you look at 2025, we saw that in April for a period of time and things got slowed down. I don't think that's the likely outcome, but it's certainly in the distribution as a possibility.

世界上可能發生某些事情，某種外生事件或宏觀事件，改變市場情緒。如果你回顧 2025 年，我們在 4 月曾經在一段時間內看到這種情況，事情因此放緩。我不認為那是最可能的結果，但它確實在可能性的分布中。

But I do think that we are, not yet in the middle of the potential for a full-on M&A and sponsor cycle and I think over the next few years, barring some sort of an exogenous event that slows it down, we're going to have a pretty constructive environment. For those activities, given the combination of fiscal, monetary, capital investment, deregulatory stimulus, you've got this combination of stimulus activity that I think is pretty constructive for these businesses.

但我確實認為，我們尚未進入潛在全面併購與贊助商（sponsor）週期的中段；我認為在未來幾年，只要沒有某種外生事件使其放緩，我們將會處在相當具建設性的環境中。就這些活動而言，考量財政、貨幣、資本投資、去監管刺激等因素的組合，你會看到這一連串刺激活動的組合，我認為對這些業務相當有利。

There are a couple of things I'd add on that just to supplement everything David said. If you look at sort of industry-wide volumes of the various categories of investment banking activities compared to say the last five years, a number of them have started to trend above the average level.

我再補充幾點，以補足 David 所說的一切。如果你看整個產業各類投資銀行活動的量，相較於例如過去五年，其中有不少類別已開始高於平均水準的趨勢。

One that's decidedly below the averages remains the IPO business for equities. That's a lucrative business that, we have a very, long-standing leadership position in. And it's also the case that while, some of the debt activities have been trending up in terms of overall volumes, we still haven't seen enormous volumes of sponsor capital committed deals or large cap capital committed investment grade activity.

其中一個明顯低於平均值的仍是股票 IPO 業務。那是一項獲利豐厚的業務，而我們在其中長期以來一直處於領導地位。此外也確實是，雖然部分債務相關活動在整體量上呈上升趨勢，但我們仍未看到龐大的贊助商資本承諾（capital committed）交易量，或大型股（large cap）資本承諾的投資級（investment grade）活動量。

So there still remains other types of transaction activity, as we progress through the cycle, that is, very strategic to clients, things that Goldman Sachs is very good at executing, that could further propel upside across the capital markets line items.

因此，隨著我們在週期中推進，仍有其他類型的交易活動——對客戶而言非常具策略性、而高盛也非常擅長執行——可能進一步推動資本市場各項目（line items）的上行空間。

Great. And just the follow-up question is, I really appreciate how you laid out your internal opportunities to deploy the capital, your excess capital, which is so much, right? If you take into account the excess, your buffer and potentially the redefinition of that capital.

很好。接著追問一下，我非常感謝你闡述你們內部可部署資本、你們的超額資本（excess capital）的機會——那確實很多，對吧？如果把超額、你們的緩衝，以及可能對該資本的重新定義都納入考量。

As we think about, a year where, you talked about the cap markets, your ability to organically generate capital is also best in class. How do we think about how that buyback fits in? Appreciate your prepared remarks if you're going to be opportunistic. You did $12 billion '26, but it seems like you have plenty of room to meet or exceed that and check off your wish list. Is that the right way to think about it?

當我們思考在你所談到的資本市場這樣的一年，你們有機能力（organic）產生資本的能力也是同業最佳。我們該如何看待庫藏股回購（buyback）在其中的定位？我也感謝你在準備好的發言中提到你們會把握機會（opportunistic）。你們在 '26 做了 120 億美元，但看起來你們有很大空間可以達到或超過這個數字，同時也能完成你們的願望清單。這樣理解對嗎？

Sure, Erika. So I'll quickly, give you our standard answer on the prioritization of the deployment of capital, and that remains unchanged, as David said and that's what we'll focus on first and foremost. But to get to your buyback question, given the degree of excess capital that we sit with today and our expectation that we'll continue to generate capital over the course of the next year, buybacks remain an important tool in our toolkit.

當然，Erika。我先快速給你我們關於資本部署優先順序的標準答案：這一點維持不變，正如 David 所說，我們會首先且最優先聚焦於此。但回到你關於回購的問題，考量我們目前持有的超額資本程度，以及我們預期在未來一年仍將持續產生資本，回購仍是我們工具箱中的重要工具。

Over the long-term, you will notice that Goldman Sachs has reduced its share count, quite significantly and quite sustainably and it gives us leverage to continue to generate EPS growth. So like anyone. We are mindful of the price at which our equity is trading but we're also trying to take a strategic long-term approach to first and foremost fuel the franchise to support the client activity, but also drive returns for shareholders over multiple years. So buybacks will continue to feature as an important part of our capital deployment strategy.

從長期來看，你會注意到高盛已相當顯著且持續地降低了流通股數，這讓我們能夠槓桿式地持續推動每股盈餘（EPS）成長。所以就像任何人一樣。我們會留意我們股票交易的價格，但我們也試圖採取策略性的長期做法：首先為特許經營（franchise）注入動能以支持客戶活動，同時也在多年期間為股東帶來回報。因此，回購將持續是我們資本部署策略中的重要一環。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

Betsy Graseck，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning, just continuing on this theme, I wanted to understand a little bit about how the equities markets, revenues and the fixed income, revenues are aligned with the issuance calendar. Just wondering how much of the issuance that's going on is helping those two line items as well, or is issuance all within banking?

嗨，早安，延續這個主題，我想更了解股票市場收入與固定收益收入，如何與發行時程（issuance calendar）對齊。我想知道目前進行中的發行，有多少也在幫助這兩個項目，還是說發行全部都算在投行（banking）裡？

So thank you for the question, Betsy. I'm not sure I understood the very last tail end of your question but maybe I'll start off answering it and then you can redirect me. I think across our FICC and Equities businesses, we obviously have a very diversified portfolio of activities, both intermediation and financing, even with intermediation, diversified by asset class, by cash, derivatives and equities.

謝謝你的問題，Betsy。我不確定我是否理解你問題最後那一小段，但我先開始回答，之後你也可以再引導我。我認為在我們的 FICC 與股票（Equities）業務中，我們顯然擁有非常多元的活動組合，包含中介（intermediation）與融資（financing）；即便在中介業務中，也依資產類別、現貨（cash）、衍生品以及股票而多元分散。

And I think there are contributions that the primary market activity makes to enhance the overall liquidity provision, secondary market making opportunity set. But my own view is that, we'll continue to see an increase in the overall level of capital markets activity.

我認為初級市場活動的確會有所貢獻，能提升整體流動性提供，以及次級市場做市（market making）的機會集合。但我自己的看法是，我們將會持續看到整體資本市場活動水準的上升。

If that pulls through, as well as we hope and expect, that should capitalize incremental levels of activity across intermediation activities as investors even more dynamically work to assess their existing secondary market portfolio versus quote unquote, making room for primary, et cetera. So I think there remains opportunity in that front as we move into 2026.

如果這能如我們希望與預期般傳導落實，那麼當投資人更動態地評估其既有的次級市場投資組合，相較於所謂「為初級市場騰出空間」等等時，應會帶動中介活動的增量活動水準。因此，我認為隨著我們邁入 2026 年，這方面仍然存在機會。

And then you mentioned that your backlog today is the highest in four years. Maybe we could just ask you to unpack a little bit. There's a lot of different backlogs, so, would you mind going through what you're anticipating, getting un released into production, so to speak, as we go through '26.

另外你提到你們目前的在手訂單（backlog）是四年來最高。也許我們可以請你再多拆解一下。在手訂單有很多不同類型，所以你介不介意說明一下，隨著我們走過 '26，你預期哪些會被釋放並投入「生產」——打個比方——？

Sure. So the way we report our backlog consistently each and every quarter. So there's no change to the way we're reporting that. It's comprised of our advisory activities, our debt underwriting, our equity underwriting. We're very deliberate in our disclosures each and every quarter to highlight if the deltas in the backlog, have particular drivers.

當然。我們每一季都以一致的方式揭露我們的在手訂單。所以我們的揭露方式沒有改變。它由我們的顧問（advisory）業務、債務承銷（debt underwriting）、股權承銷（equity underwriting）所構成。我們每一季都非常審慎地在揭露中強調：如果在手訂單的變動（deltas）有特定驅動因素，我們會指出來。

In this particular case, we say a couple things. We say it's seventh consecutive quarter. It's the highest in four years. It's one of the highest levels ever. It is a large level of backlog and we make that point because obviously the results that we just delivered in Q4 and for full year 2025 were very strong but the indication is that not only we delivered those results but more than replenished those results. And so that is what's giving us the confidence.

在這個特定情況下，我們說了幾件事。我們說這是連續第七季。是四年來最高。也是史上最高水準之一。這是一個很高的在手訂單水位；我們強調這點，因為顯然我們剛交出的 2025 年第四季與 2025 全年的結果非常強勁，但這也顯示我們不僅交出了這些結果，還在此之上補充（replenished）了更多。因此這就是帶給我們信心的原因。

And then all of David's comments that he made with respect to the flywheel and the catalyzing of activity. Because the growth in the backlog is driven by advisory, we're also trying to give our investors the sense that that could in turn drive other pieces of activity across the firm, other types of activity that doesn't get registered in backlog and doesn't lend itself to that type of reporting metric. So that's sort of our orientation and that's what I would offer up to help you get, the insight on why we're putting that out there and highlighting it.

再加上 David 關於飛輪效應（flywheel）與活動被催化（catalyzing）的所有評論。由於在手訂單的成長是由顧問業務所驅動，我們也希望讓投資人理解：這可能反過來帶動公司內其他部分的活動——其他類型的活動不會被計入在手訂單，也不適合用這類報告指標來呈現。所以這大致是我們的出發點；以上就是我能提供的，幫助你理解我們為何要揭露並強調這些內容。

Brennan Hawken, BMO.

Brennan Hawken，BMO。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, that sort of great timing on the Apple Card deal. Like having that announced the week before we get the tweet on the limits, I mean. I couldn't help but chuckle about that.

早安。謝謝讓我提問。首先，Apple Card 這筆交易的時機真的很巧。我是說，就在我們收到關於限額的推文前一週就宣布了這件事。我忍不住笑了一下。

I'd love to hear about, obviously you've got a long, pathway to close 24 months and then it closes, but could you help us maybe understand the right way we should be thinking about like platforms run rate after it. And then whether or not there's any operating expenses given this is your last card exit that that might be running off and what are the plans for the deposits the Apple deposits that may not have been reflected in the announcement.

我很想聽聽，顯然你們還有一段很長的路要走，24 個月後才完成交割並結束，但你們能否幫我們理解一下，我們應該如何思考交割後平台業務的常態化運行水準（run rate）。另外，鑑於這是你們最後一張卡的退出，是否會有任何營業費用隨之消退？以及對於 Apple 的存款（Apple deposits），公告中可能尚未反映的部分，有什麼規劃？

Sure. Hi, Brendan, thank you. Thank you for the question. Thank you for the observation. The same thing occurred to us. So thinking about Platform Solutions on the forward, it's really comprised, the vast majority of it is the Apple Card business and the savings program. The loans are now obviously in a fair value, standpoint from an accounting perspective, so they're mark to market. The performance contributors will obviously be NII, charge-offs, operating expenses, et cetera.

當然。嗨，Brendan，謝謝你。謝謝你的提問。也謝謝你的觀察。我們也有同樣的感受。就未來的 Platform Solutions 而言，它的構成主要是 Apple Card 業務以及儲蓄方案，佔了絕大多數。從會計角度來看，這些貸款現在顯然是以公允價值口徑處理，因此會按市價計量（mark to market）。績效貢獻者顯然會包括淨利息收入（NII）、沖銷（charge-offs）、營業費用等等。

I think we'd observed from a seasonality perspective and across the balance of the year perspective, the same dynamo. Dynamics we've observed over the last couple of years with the portfolio where the first quarter is typically stronger in terms of reflecting, paydown of balances and things like that, which then, generally speaking, grow over the balance of the year. When you put that all together, our expectation is we'll have a small, pre-tax loss, for the year in the segment but nothing that's material for Goldman Sachs.

我想我們從季節性以及全年其餘期間的角度觀察到，與過去幾年該投資組合相同的動態。第一季通常較強，反映在餘額償還（paydown）等方面，之後一般在全年其餘時間會逐步成長。綜合以上，我們預期該分部全年會有小幅稅前虧損，但對高盛而言並不重大。

You asked also Brennan about, you asked also about savings. I just wanted to comment on this. Yeah, so there currently is no agreement to transition the savings program. We're going to continue to service and maintain, our existing Apple savings customers and we're going to continue to offer them high yield savings account, as Apple card users. And users should expect that this service will be seamless. It'll be uninterrupted, and they'll continue to earn the same competitive rate they've been getting on the savings, and it's attractive to us.

Brennan，你也問到了儲蓄。我想就此補充一下。是的，目前並沒有將儲蓄方案移轉的協議。我們會繼續服務並維護現有的 Apple 儲蓄客戶，並且會繼續向 Apple Card 用戶提供高收益儲蓄帳戶。用戶應該會感受到服務是無縫的。服務不會中斷，他們也會繼續以同樣具競爭力的利率獲得儲蓄收益，這對我們也很有吸引力。

Obviously we are very focused on the transition of the card and there's a lot of work to do over the next 24 months, the transition of the card, but at some point in the future, we will expect to have additional conversations about the future of Apple savings.

顯然，我們非常專注於卡片的移轉，未來 24 個月還有很多工作要做，但在未來某個時間點，我們預期會就 Apple 儲蓄的未來進一步對話。

As we've mentioned, our deposits are diversified in tenor and channel and that remains true even if we excluded Apple savings deposit. They're just a small fraction of the deposits but at this point there have been no discussions about the savings plan.

如我們先前提到，我們的存款在期限結構與渠道上是多元分散的；即使排除 Apple 儲蓄存款，這一點仍然成立。Apple 儲蓄存款只佔存款的一小部分，但截至目前，關於儲蓄方案尚未有任何討論。

Got it. Thank for that, David, and Dennis. I -- for my follow-up, so one of the sort of debate points this morning, with investors was on the efficiency ratio and how things looked year over year. Now, of course, you have to adjust for the revenue impact of the Apple Card announcement, but I, and I might be doing the math wrong, but, so correct me if that's the case, but when I do make that adjustment, it looks like there's a negative year to year impact on the efficiency ratio.

了解。謝謝你們的說明，David 和 Dennis。我——就我的追問，今天早上投資人討論的一個焦點是效率比率（efficiency ratio）以及同比的表現。當然，你必須調整 Apple Card 公告對營收的影響，但我——也可能是我算錯了，如果是這樣請糾正我——但當我做了這個調整後，看起來效率比率同比是負面影響。

Like it was the efficiency ratio was stronger last fourth quarter versus this fourth quarter. Is my math right? And if so could you speak to maybe what some of the factors were that prevented greater operating leverage and how we should think about operating leverage going forward?

也就是說，去年第四季的效率比率比今年第四季更強。我的計算對嗎？如果是，能否談談有哪些因素使得營運槓桿沒有更大，以及我們應該如何看待未來的營運槓桿？

Sure, Brennan, I'll start with that. So first, thank you for observing correctly that the efficiency ratio is one of those places where based on the accounting for the Apple Card transition. It goes in the opposite direction versus our intention and the trajectory that we've been on.

當然，Brennan，我先回答。首先，謝謝你正確地注意到，效率比率是其中一個會因 Apple Card 移轉的會計處理而呈現與我們意圖及既有軌跡相反方向的地方。

So that does explain why it's going in that direction based on the reduction to revenues. But you need to look at the efficiency ratio on a full year basis. There have been some other things I've seen where people are looking at quarter year-over-year fourth quarter operating expenses or efficiency. Given the way that we manage compensation and non-compensation expenses over the course of a full year, you need to look at that sort of in totality.

因此，基於營收的減少，確實解釋了為什麼它會往那個方向走。但你需要以全年口徑來看效率比率。我也看到有些人用第四季同比來看營業費用或效率。鑑於我們在全年期間管理薪酬與非薪酬費用的方式，你需要從整體來看。

And in this particular. When you do that, for the year over year, fourth quarter look in this particular year, it looks like you have, a significant increase in operating expenses. But when you step back and look at the full year performance, it's very clear that the firm delivered significant operating leverage. Obviously, we have reported revs at 9%, we have pre-tax at +19%, and we have EPS at 27%. And so you have to sort of step back take account of the provision release, and look at the full year results.

而在這個特定情況下。當你用今年第四季同比來看時，會顯得營業費用大幅增加。但當你退一步看全年表現，就很清楚公司交出了顯著的營運槓桿。顯然，我們報告的營收（revs）為 +9%，稅前為 +19%，每股盈餘（EPS）為 +27%。因此你必須退一步，把備抵/撥備回轉（provision release）納入考量，並看全年結果。

The fourth quarter year-over-year, the only thing I'd had the fourth quarter year over year was affected by the way we accrued comp last year and the way we accrued comp this year and the revenues in the quarter. And so it's -- you can't look at the fourth quarter year-over-year to Denis's point, you have to look at the year.

至於第四季同比，唯一的影響因素是我們去年與今年計提薪酬（accrued comp）的方式，以及該季度的營收。所以——如 Denis 所說，你不能只看第四季同比，必須看全年。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

Mike Mayo，富國證券（Wells Fargo Securities）。

Hi, I guess it's an exciting time. This is a new era for Goldman Sachs 3.0. And you're redesigning the whole firm around AI. So that could be very exciting, but I'm looking for the output that you're looking for from this. I know it's early days, but whenever I ask about AI, it's always answers at a 10,000 foot level like it's transformational, it's a game changer, it's a superpower.

嗨，我想這是一個令人振奮的時刻。這是高盛 3.0 的新時代，而你們正圍繞 AI 重新設計整個公司。這可能非常令人期待，但我想了解你們希望從中得到什麼樣的產出。我知道現在還在早期，但每次我問 AI，答案總是在一個很高的層次，比如它具有變革性、是遊戲規則改變者、是超能力。

We all get that. But what are you hoping to achieve? So like this decade, your revenues are up 2/3, your head count's up 1/4. So that's one way maybe you could frame the output that you like to achieve but how much more in revenues, how much more inefficiency? Just can you put some meat on the bones? Thank you.

大家都明白。但你們希望達成什麼？例如在這十年裡，你們的營收上升了 2/3，人員數增加了 1/4。這或許是一種可以用來框定你們想要達成的產出方式，但具體而言，營收還能增加多少、低效率能改善多少？能否把內容講得更具體一些？謝謝。

I appreciate the question, Mike, and I appreciate the way you frame it, and I understand why there's a strong desire to get more from us. And what I promise you is you're going to get more, over time as we're in a position to give you metrics, to give you targets, and to really explain it.

Mike，我很感謝你的提問，也很欣賞你提出問題的方式，我理解大家非常希望我們提供更多資訊。我向你保證，隨著時間推進，當我們能夠提供指標、提供目標，並真正加以說明時，你會從我們這裡得到更多。

I want to step back at a high level. Just the one thing that I'd say, and I'd frame it slightly differently than you'd frame it. This is not a new era for Goldman Sachs One GS 3.0. We're not going to transform the whole firm with AI. We are focused on our two core businesses, driving growth in our two core businesses and both, I think we're incredibly well positioned and positioned to win.

我想先從更高層次退一步來看。我只想說一件事，而且我會用跟你表述稍微不同的方式來框架它。這對高盛而言並不是一個新的時代——不是什麼 One GS 3.0 的新紀元。我們不會用 AI 來改造整個公司。我們聚焦於兩大核心業務，推動兩大核心業務的成長；而且我認為，我們在這兩方面都具備非常有利的定位，也有能力勝出。

AI and this technology is an opportunity for us to drive productivity and efficiency in the organization, and we are very focused on it, because it will add to our capacity to invest in growth in the business. At a high level, and I think I've talked about this a little bit before, there are two things that I would focus on. One, we have very smart, very productive people, and you can give them these models, these tools, these applications, you can put them in their hands, and they're very good at playing with them and figuring out how on a day to day basis.

AI 與這項技術對我們而言，是提升組織生產力與效率的機會；我們非常專注於此，因為它將增加我們投資業務成長的能力。從高層次來看——我想我之前也稍微談過——我會聚焦兩件事。第一，我們有非常聰明、非常高產能的人才；你把這些模型、工具、應用交到他們手上，他們很擅長去試用、摸索，並在日常工作中找出如何運用。

They can use these tools to make themselves more productive, to do more, to affect our clients more, and we're pretty good at that. We put technology in their hands for decades. They're pretty good at taking that technology and figuring out how to use it and that is going on and there is progress in that.

他們可以用這些工具讓自己更有效率、做得更多、對客戶產生更大的影響，而我們在這方面做得相當不錯。我們把科技交到同仁手上已經幾十年了。他們很擅長把那項科技拿來並想出如何使用；這件事正在發生，也確實有進展。

The thing you're talking about is our ability to really in the enterprise deploy the technology to reimagine operating processes and create real efficiency and we think there is an ability to do that on a basis that would be meaningful and significant for Goldman Sachs. It's not just to take cost out, but it's also to free up capacity to invest in other areas where we see growth opportunities that we've been a little bit constrained.

你所談的那件事，是我們在企業層面真正部署這項技術的能力，用以重新想像營運流程並創造真正的效率；我們認為，這樣做的能力對高盛而言可以在具意義且重大的程度上實現。這不只是為了降低成本，也是在釋放產能，好讓我們能投資到其他我們看到成長機會、但過去有些受限的領域。

I talked about wealth management because somebody asked a question and our desire to put more feet on the ground to broaden our footprint and our platform, we would like to do more of that this year than we're doing, but we're constrained because we're also trying to balance and deliver returns.

我之所以談到財富管理，是因為有人問了相關問題；我們希望增加前線人力，以擴大我們的覆蓋範圍與平台。今年我們希望在這方面做得比目前更多，但我們也受到限制，因為我們同時要在平衡之下交付報酬。

If we can remake processes and create more operating efficiency and flexibility, that will free up more capacity from an efficiency perspective to invest in these growth areas. To change operating processes in the firm and we've identified six specific processes that we're attacking takes an enormous amount of work to bring people along. We started doing this in the fall. We're making good progress.

如果我們能重塑流程、創造更高的營運效率與彈性，就能從效率角度釋放更多產能，投資到這些成長領域。要在公司內改變營運流程——而我們已識別出六個正在攻堅的具體流程——需要投入極大量的工作，讓大家一起跟上。我們在去年秋天開始做這件事。目前進展良好。

To be honest, I had hoped to give a little bit more transparency at this earnings call, but we don't have the full confidence to put information out publicly but we are committed to giving you more over the course of the next quarters so you can track with us the efficiency progress and how we're deploying that progress into the business. And so we'll continue to keep you posted as we do it, but I think it's meaningful, but for the moment it's focused on six distinct processes.

坦白說，我原本希望在這次財報電話會議上提供更多透明度，但我們還沒有足夠的信心把資訊公開；不過我們承諾在接下來幾個季度會提供更多內容，讓你們能與我們一起追蹤效率改善的進度，以及我們如何把這些進展部署到業務中。因此我們會在推進過程中持續向各位更新；我認為這很有意義，但目前仍聚焦在六個明確的流程上。

And just as one follow-up if we were to look at one metric. For progress five years from now, would that be like revenues per employee? Would that be efficiency? What would it be headcount or how do you think about that?

再追問一下，如果我們要看一個指標。用來衡量五年後的進展，會是像「每位員工的營收」嗎？會是效率嗎？會是人頭數，或你會怎麼看？

Well, if you look out five years from now, I think this technology, and I think this has to be put in the lens of a journey. That a firm like ours has been on for decades. I mean, I joined Goldman Sachs in 1999, and on a revenue per employee basis, I mean, you pointed out a revenue per employee metric over the last five years. You go back and you look 25 years, the same thing.

嗯，如果你把時間拉到五年後，我認為這項技術——而且我覺得必須用「旅程」的視角來看——是一家像我們這樣的公司已經走了幾十年的旅程。我在 1999 年加入高盛；以每位員工的營收來看——你剛提到過去五年的每位員工營收指標——你回頭看 25 年，也是同樣的趨勢。

We continue, our people continue to get more productive. I think this technology and the work we can do in One GS 3.0 creates an ability for us in the next five years to accelerate the pace of that once again. And so that is a metric, but I don't think the only metric.

我們一直在進步，我們的人也持續變得更有效率。我認為這項技術，以及我們在 One GS 3.0 中能做的工作，讓我們在未來五年有能力再次加速這個提升的步伐。所以那是一個指標，但我不認為它是唯一的指標。

Steven Chubak, Wolf Research.

Wolf Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So David, there have been a number of significant developments in the area of market structure, whether it's tokenization, the recent expansion of prediction markets, you guys are always quite front footed when it comes to innovation and was hoping you could speak to how you're evaluating some of these emerging opportunities within the market structure tokenization landscape. Where do you see the most compelling opportunities for Goldman and how are you positioning the firm to participate in a more meaningful way?

David，市場結構領域出現了不少重大發展，不論是代幣化、近期預測市場的擴張；你們在創新方面一向走在前面。我想請你談談，你們如何評估市場結構中這些新興機會，特別是在代幣化的版圖上。你認為對高盛而言最具吸引力的機會在哪裡？你們又如何定位公司，以更有意義的方式參與其中？

Yeah, so I appreciate the question, Steven. First, I'll start. I mean, you mentioned two things and the both things that we have an enormous number of people in the firm, extremely focused on. Tokenization, stable coins, obviously there's a lot going on in Washington right now with the Clarity Act.

好的，Steven，謝謝你的問題。我先從這裡開始。你提到兩件事，而這兩件事我們公司裡都有非常多的人投入極高的專注。代幣化、穩定幣——顯然華盛頓目前也有很多動態，例如《Clarity Act》。

I was actually in Washington on Tuesday, speaking to people about things that we think are important. To us in the context of the framing of that, obviously that bill, based on the news over the last 24 hours is a long way to go. Before that bill is going to progress but I do think these innovations are important. I don't think we have to be the leader, but it would not surprise you that we have a big team of people spending a lot of time with senior leadership and doing a lot of work.

我其實週二就在華盛頓，和一些人就我們認為重要的事情進行交流。就我們對此的框架而言，顯然那項法案——根據過去 24 小時的新聞——距離推進仍有很長的路要走，但我確實認為這些創新很重要。我不認為我們一定要當領導者，但你不會意外的是，我們有一個很大的團隊花大量時間與資深管理層一起投入並做了很多工作。

So that we can clearly decide where we're investing and playing and how those technologies can expand or accelerate a variety of our existing businesses and where there are new business opportunities candidly around those technologies.

好讓我們能清楚決定要在哪些領域投資與參與，以及這些技術如何擴大或加速我們既有的多項業務；坦白說，也包括圍繞這些技術所帶來的新業務機會。

I think the prediction markets are also super interesting. I've personally met with the two big prediction companies and their leadership in the last two weeks and spent a couple of hours with each, to learn more about that.

我也覺得預測市場非常有意思。過去兩週我個人分別與兩家大型預測公司及其管理層會面，每家都花了幾個小時，進一步了解這個領域。

We have a team of people here that are spending time with them and are looking at it, when you think about some of these activities, particularly when you look at some of the ones that are CFTC, regulated they look like derivative contract activities and so I can certainly see opportunities where these cross into our business and we're very focused on understanding that, understanding the regulatory structure that's going to develop around that, see where there are opportunities for us to have capabilities or to partner to serve our clients around these.

我們這裡也有一個團隊正在與他們接觸並研究；當你思考其中一些活動時，特別是那些受 CFTC 監管的活動，它們看起來像是衍生性合約的活動。因此我確實看得到一些機會，這些會與我們的業務產生交集；我們非常專注於理解這點、理解未來將形成的監管架構，並看看我們在哪些地方有機會建立能力，或透過合作來圍繞這些需求服務客戶。

I think it's early on both. I think sometimes the -- I think there's a lot of reason to be excited and interested in these things but the pace of change might not be as quick as quick and as immediate as some of the pundits are talking about in both of these, but I think they're important real and we're spending a lot of time.

我認為這兩者都還在早期。我想有時——我認為確實有很多理由對這些事情感到興奮並保持興趣，但變化的速度可能不會像一些評論人士所說的那樣快、那樣立即；不過我認為它們很重要、很真實，而我們也投入了大量時間。

No, thanks for all that color, David. And just a quick follow-up on the financing opportunity. If I think back, five plus years ago ahead of the 2020 investor day, when you first started talking about the financing opportunity, you noted it was less than 20% of Goldman's trading revenue. It was 40% that some of your larger money center peers and that you were planning to narrow that gap. And if I fast forward to today. You're now approaching that 40% threshold.

了解，謝謝你提供這麼多背景，David。再快速追問一下融資機會。如果我回想五年多前、在 2020 年投資人日之前，你們第一次開始談融資機會時，你提到它占高盛交易營收的比重不到 20%。而你們一些更大型的貨幣中心同業是 40%，你們計畫縮小這個差距。如果我快轉到今天，你們現在已經接近 40% 這個門檻了。

And I was hoping to get your thoughts on how large you think that financing piece can grow over time and your approach to also managing risk against any potential drawdown or deleveraging events within that business.

我想請教您對於您認為這塊融資業務隨時間推移能成長到多大規模的看法，以及您在該業務中如何管理風險，以因應任何潛在的回撤或去槓桿事件。

Yeah, no, it's a very good question, Steven, and you're focused on the right thing and so are we. I mean, I think what I would say is over the last five years we've gone, from being underweighted given our market footprint and our market shares and our wallet shares to being more closely weighted. I think we've got a little bit room, but it wouldn't surprise you in the formation of the Capital Solutions Group and thinking about the connectivity between our asset management business and our origination capabilities, we see the potential to basically put a lot of this activity over time into our asset management business and allow our clients to have access, to these origination flows and so we're very conscious from a risk management perspective we see opportunities to continue to serve our clients. But because of our asset management business, we have the ability to grow this, and not all of it has to be on balance sheet in the same way. And so we're keenly focused on the evolution of that in the coming years, and that's something you'll hear us talk more about.

是的，這是個非常好的問題，Steven，你關注的重點是對的，我們也是。我的意思是，我想我會這麼說：過去五年，我們從相對於我們的市場版圖、市占率與錢包占有率而言偏低的配置，走向更接近相稱的配置。我認為我們還有一點空間，但你也不會意外：在成立資本解決方案集團（Capital Solutions Group），並思考我們資產管理業務與承作（origination）能力之間的連結時，我們看到一個潛力——隨時間推移，基本上把相當多的活動放到我們的資產管理業務中，讓客戶能夠取得這些承作流量（origination flows）。因此，從風險管理角度，我們非常有意識地看到持續服務客戶的機會。但因為我們有資產管理業務，我們有能力擴大這塊業務，而且不必全部都以同樣方式放在資產負債表上。因此，我們非常專注於未來幾年這方面的演進，之後你們也會聽到我們談更多。

Dan Fannon, Jeffries.

Dan Fannon，Jefferies。

Thanks. Good morning. Another one just on expenses and really non-com and when you know all you've been doing with the GS 3.0. I was curious as you start 2026, how does the growth for non-com look versus maybe 2025 in the budgeting process and maybe what's different in terms of some of those metrics.

謝謝。早安。再問一題關於費用，主要是非薪酬（non-comp），以及你們在GS 3.0上所做的一切。我想了解的是，當你們進入2026年時，在預算編列流程中，非薪酬費用的成長相較於2025年會是什麼樣子？以及在某些指標上有哪些不同？

So I appreciate the question. You've heard us say, over many years, we maintain a rigorous focus on managing these expenses as tightly as we possibly can. There are a lot of them, certainly by dollar quantum that are very linked with the overall level of activity inside of the firm. Notably, transaction-based expenses. And also to an extent some of the market development expenses.

謝謝你的問題。多年來你們都聽我們說過，我們始終以非常嚴謹的態度，盡可能緊密地管理這些費用。其中有很多項目，尤其以金額規模而言，與公司內部整體活動水準高度連動。特別是交易型費用。另外在某種程度上，也包括部分市場開發費用。

We're at a point in the cycle where as an example, it's more important to feed some T&E capacity into the firm to get people front-footed and meeting face to face with clients than it is to overly constrain that expenditure. Transaction based similarly as we continue to grow these activities, there are necessarily transaction based expenses that go alongside those.

我們正處於這個循環的某個階段，例如，相較於過度壓縮支出，把一些差旅與交際（T&E）資源投入公司，讓同仁更積極、能與客戶面對面會談，反而更重要。交易型費用也是類似：隨著我們持續擴大這些活動，必然會有相應的交易型費用伴隨而來。

On the other side of the equation, there are those types of expenses over which we have more control, and we have a very concerted effort to constrain the growth of fees which may be inflation linked or may be substitutes for other types of work and we're focused on sort of grinding those down as much as we possibly can.

在另一方面，也有一些我們更能掌控的費用類型；我們正非常有系統地努力抑制各類費用的成長——這些費用可能與通膨連動，或是用來替代其他類型的工作——我們的重點是盡可能把它們一點一滴地壓低。

Thanks. And as a follow-up for the private banking and lending. I was hoping to get an updated outlook as you think about 2026 and a backdrop where rates are coming down. How you're thinking about the offsets of revenue from both demand and deposits.

謝謝。另外追問私人銀行與放款業務。我想請教你們對2026年的最新展望，尤其在利率下行的背景下。你們如何看待需求與存款兩端對營收的抵銷效果？

Sure. So there we've obviously been quite deliberate trying to, make sure you have all the pieces of the puzzle as we head into 2026. We've dealt with some of the sequential comparisons in that line item based on the one particular loan that had been previously impaired and then we had exceptional levels of revenue.

當然。在這方面，我們顯然一直相當審慎、刻意地確保在邁入2026年時，你能掌握拼圖的所有部分。我們已經處理了該項目中一些序列比較的影響，主要來自一筆先前已減損的特定貸款，之後又出現了異常高的營收水準。

I want to understand that as a comparison that that frankly will still be relevant as we head into 2026. Our focus is continuing to grow lending activities and the lending penetration. We made good progress there. That's a piece of unlocking incremental growth in the wealth channel remains very important to clients.

我希望大家理解，作為比較基礎，這點坦白說在我們邁入2026年時仍然會相關。我們的重點是持續擴大放款活動與放款滲透率。我們在這方面已取得不錯進展。這是解鎖財富通路增量成長的一個關鍵，而這對客戶仍然非常重要。

We'll expect to grow lending. We'll focus on growing our overall level of deposit activity, across the segment, but we do expect there to be some nim compression given our expectations on the rate cycle and so we just want to flag that as an expectation as we head to 2026.

我們預期放款將會成長。我們也會專注於提升整個分部的存款活動總量，但基於我們對利率循環的預期，我們確實預期淨利差（NIM）會有一些壓縮，因此在邁向2026年時先把這點作為預期提醒。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

Matt O'Connor，德意志銀行。

Good morning. I was hoping to follow-up on the 5% long-term asset flow target within wealth. You're slightly above us in 4Q and just want to get more color in terms of how you arrived at that and maybe framing how much is doing more with existing advisors and customers versus the efforts that you have to hire more advisors and presumably attract new customers.

早安。我想追問財富管理中長期資產淨流入5%的目標。你們在第四季略高於我們的預期，我想更了解你們是如何得出這個目標的；以及可否說明其中有多少來自於讓既有理財顧問與既有客戶做得更多，多少則來自於你們招募更多顧問、並且推測會吸引新客戶的努力。

So. Look, we think, wealth is a big opportunity for the firm. We have a very strong business at the moment. We think there's a good opportunity to grow it, and we are making extra efforts to drive accountability and focus on our execution against that opportunity set.

是這樣。我們認為財富管理對公司而言是一個很大的機會。我們目前的業務非常強勁。我們認為有很好的成長空間，而且我們正投入額外努力來強化問責與聚焦，確保我們能把握這個機會集合並落實執行。

And so this is an external target that we expect you all to hold us to account and we also think it's an important signal to send to all of our people in terms of how laser focused we are on this opportunity set as you said, we have a track record of delivering this type of annual growth.

因此，這是一個對外的目標，我們也希望你們都能據此來檢視我們的表現；同時我們也認為，向所有同仁傳遞這個訊號很重要，讓大家知道我們對這個機會集合有多麼聚焦。正如你所說，我們過去也有交付這類年度成長的紀錄。

So we want to maintain the focus. That is one component of the overall sort of revenue equation and opportunity set in wealth management, but it's an effort for us to just apply incremental amounts of granular focus. This is one of the key underpinnings to the overall revenue trajectory in the wealth business.

所以我們希望維持這個專注度。這只是財富管理整體營收方程式與機會集合中的一個組成部分，但對我們而言，這是一項用來施加額外、細緻聚焦的努力。這是財富業務整體營收軌跡的關鍵支柱之一。

And any color you want to provide in terms of you talked about growing advisors? You've got some plans this year, you said, you'd like to do more, but you're mindful of kind of managing the profitability. Just any way of framing, whether it's your plan this year or this kind of longer-term, where you're at now and where you'd like to be on the number of advisors.

另外，你提到擴大理財顧問隊伍，有沒有什麼補充說明？你說今年有一些計畫，也希望做得更多，但同時會留意獲利能力的管理。能否用某種方式框架一下——不論是今年的計畫或更長期的方向——你們目前的顧問人數狀況，以及希望達到的目標水準？

I think the best way, Matt, I think the best way to frame it, this is a very fragmented business. My guess is an ultra-high net worth. Our share in the United States, for example is somewhere mid-single-digits, and that's probably leading share.

Matt，我認為最好的說法是：這是一個非常分散的業務。以超高淨值（ultra-high net worth）為例，我們在美國的市占率大概是中個位數百分比，而那可能已經是領先的市占。

So you think about there are hundreds and hundreds of firms and people that do this in a variety of ways. So with our franchise and our platform. I said before early in the call, it scales with people. There is lots of ability to still grow market share in this business if you've got a leading franchise by adding advisors, adding footprint, broadening the clients that we touch and so we think we've got good trajectory to do that. And there's a real focus on that.

所以你想想，有成百上千家機構與從業人員以各種不同方式在做這件事。以我們的特許經營（franchise）與平台而言，我在電話會議前段說過，它是隨著人員而擴張的。如果你擁有領先的特許經營，透過增加理財顧問、擴大據點、拓展我們觸及的客戶範圍，仍然有很大的空間在這個業務中提升市占率；因此我們認為我們有很好的發展軌跡可以做到這點。而且我們對此有非常明確的聚焦。

And I'd add to it, alt is a component of it. We put out specific targets around, sort of alts opportunity set. And while we obviously have penetration of alts within our clients given that the average wealth of a client on our platform is north of [75 million]. It's not only appropriate, but -- you can advise a distribution of exposure to alternatives and there's still probably opportunity, to grow that with our clients.

我再補充一點：另類投資（alts）也是其中一個組成部分。我們已針對另類投資的機會集合提出具體目標。雖然以我們平台上的客戶而言，我們在另類投資的滲透率已經不低，因為平台客戶的平均財富規模超過[7,500萬]。但這不僅是合適的——你也可以建議在另類投資上採取不同程度的配置分布——而且我們與客戶之間可能仍有機會把這部分做得更大。

So in addition to the footprint, the advisors, the mix of their activities, lending remains an opportunity there, and we do as we've mentioned. We see more opportunities to enhance our technology investment, the digital experience for those clients and ensure that we're, very well positioned with existing clients and their successors.

因此，除了據點布局、顧問團隊以及他們活動的組合之外，放款在那裡仍然是一個機會，而我們也如同先前提到的那樣在做。我們看到更多機會可以加大科技投資、提升這些客戶的數位體驗，並確保我們能在既有客戶及其接班人面前處於非常有利的位置。

Gerard Cassidy., RBC Capital.

Gerard Cassidy，RBC Capital。

Good morning, Denis. Good morning, David. Can you guys share with us, in the past David you talked about the IPO market and the sponsors maybe not getting the evaluations that they would like as being one of the areas that had to loosen up and it appears like it is. But when you look at to this year and I think Denis you touched on it in your remarks that we still below we're IPO business is still below the long-term averages. Is it market conditions do you think will be a greater influence on the IPO market this year or is it still the evaluation challenge that you've referenced in the past?

早安，Denis。早安，David。你們能否跟我們分享一下：過去 David 你談到 IPO 市場，以及贊助方（sponsors）可能拿不到他們想要的估值，這是需要鬆動的一個領域，而看起來確實正在鬆動。但當你看今年，我想 Denis 你在發言中也提到，我們的 IPO 業務仍低於長期平均。你認為今年影響 IPO 市場更大的會是市場環境，還是仍然是你們過去提到的估值挑戰？

I don't think you've got the valuation challenge we've referenced. I think you're going to see a bunch of the sponsors stuff unlocked and you're going to see more activity, from sponsors. I also think one of the dynamics that we have, and it's just the reality of market structure and the way the world's evolved, companies are staying private longer, and we've got a lot of big companies in the pipe that I think just for a variety of reasons are reaching a moment in time where they're saying what, it's time to go. And I think you're also this year going to see a bunch of IPOs, this year and next year are very large companies, which is something we really haven't seen a lot of.

我不認為還存在我們先前提到的那種估值挑戰。我認為你會看到一批贊助方的案子被解鎖，並且會看到更多來自贊助方的活動。我也認為我們面臨的一個動態是——這就是市場結構與世界演變的現實——公司在私有狀態停留更久；而我們的管線裡有很多大型公司，我認為它們因為各種原因正走到一個時間點，開始說：嗯，是時候上市了。我也認為今年你會看到一批 IPO，而今年與明年會有非常大型公司的 IPO，這是我們其實很久沒有大量看到的。

So combination of sponsor momentum and more of the big companies that have stayed private longer are now turning toward the public markets and I think the confluence of that's going to be constructive, provided we have the kind of market environment we have now.

所以，贊助方動能加上那些私有化更久的大型公司如今轉向公開市場，我認為兩者匯流將會是正面的，前提是我們能維持像現在這樣的市場環境。

Right, okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And second, and not to really get political on this question, but it seems like the M&A activity, as you guys, so do so well and as your peers in 2025, it seems like this administration is more supportive of consolidation and maybe the prior administration.

好的，了解，這很有幫助。謝謝。第二個問題，我不想把問題弄得太政治化，但看起來 2025 年的併購活動——你們做得非常好，你們的同業也是——似乎這屆政府比上一屆更支持整併。

When you talk to executives about transactions, are they more focused on just the economic outlook and the opportunities there or does the regulation also factor into their thinking that the window is open now and they really need to move possibly before the change in administration in 2029?

當你們和企業高層談交易時，他們更關注的是經濟前景與其中的機會，還是監管也會納入考量——覺得現在窗口開了，可能需要在 2029 年政府更迭之前採取行動？

Yeah, sure, Gerard. I think a way to frame it, you framed it effectively. We had a very different environment from a regulatory perspective for M&A for the last four years and that doesn't mean that it's just a blank check. No regulatory oversight of large scale consolidation, but CEOs definitely believe that the art of the deal and scaled consolidation is possible now. And when CEOs see that opportunity because scale matters so much in business.

是的，當然，Gerard。我想可以這樣框架化，你的提法其實很到位。過去四年，從併購的監管角度來看，我們處在一個非常不同的環境；但這不代表現在就是「空白支票」——也不是說大型整併就沒有監管審視。但 CEO 的確相信，現在「談判的藝術」以及規模化整併是可行的。而當 CEO 看到那個機會，因為規模在商業中如此重要。

Business is so competitive, CEOs get very front-footed. And so I think CEOs and Boards are looking and saying, okay, we've got a window here of a handful of years where the opportunity to consider big strategic transformative things is certainly possible and therefore you've got a much more front foot forward, a cross-try group of CEOs really thinking about, is there something we should do? Is there something we should dream about that really advances our competitive position, and that's leading to -- you see that filtering into our backlog, but I think that's leading to a significant upswing in activity, provided we don't have, some sort of an exogenous event that that changes the current sentiment that we now have.

商業競爭非常激烈，CEO 會變得非常積極主動。因此我認為 CEO 與董事會在看的是：好，我們有一個為期幾年的窗口期，可以考慮大型、策略性、具轉型意義的事情，這顯然是可能的；因此你會看到一群更積極主動、跨產業的 CEO 在思考：我們是否該做點什麼？有沒有什麼我們應該去想像、去規劃的事情，能真正提升我們的競爭地位？這也正反映在我們的待辦案量（backlog）中；但我認為，只要沒有某種外生事件改變目前的情緒，這將帶來活動的顯著上升。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

Chris McGratty，KBW。

Great, good morning. A lot of discussion on the capital impact from [dereg]. I think in your earlier remarks you talked about expenses. I'm wondering if you could quantify that, potential pool of money that could be freed up and redeployed, I guess how much of a drag has it been?

很好，早安。大家談了很多關於[dereg] 對資本的影響。我想你在先前的談話中提到費用。我想問你能否量化一下：可能被釋放出來並重新部署的資金池有多大？也就是說，這拖累到底有多大？

I appreciate the question. I'll follow on, David's comments. I mean, I don't think we're going to give you an exact number, but you can imagine that there are a variety of, call it different, human capital consulting professional fee type surge experiences that have been observable across the industry over the last couple of years.

謝謝你的問題。我接著 David 的評論說。我的意思是，我不認為我們會給你一個精確數字，但你可以想像，過去幾年整個產業都可觀察到各式各樣——姑且稱之為不同的人力資本、顧問、專業服務費用類型的「激增」經驗。

And while there will always be work to be done and each and every institution has a responsibility to still govern and run itself in line with regulatory expectations. The current levels of engagement and focus are on the safety and soundness of the banking system.

而且雖然永遠都會有工作要做，每一家機構也都有責任，仍需依照監管期待來治理與營運自身。目前投入與聚焦的層級，是放在銀行體系的安全與健全（safety and soundness）。

And there's just a different formulation and mix of expenses required to ensure that most important goal of safety and soundness, and it therefore frees up capacity from some of the secondary or tertiary activities which can then be redeployed to driving growth across the franchise and actually, frankly, strengthening the safety of the soundness of the firm in another respect. So I think I wouldn't look at it as much of a bottom line unlock as much as an opportunity to redeploy towards helping to grow the firm and actually improve its resiliency.

而為了確保「安全與健全」這個最重要的目標，所需要的費用結構與組合確實不同；因此，它會從一些次要或第三層級的活動中釋放出產能，進而可以重新部署，用於推動整個平台（franchise）的成長，坦白說，也能在另一個層面強化公司的安全與健全。所以我認為，與其把它視為損益表底線的解鎖，不如把它視為一個重新部署的機會：用來協助公司成長，並實際提升其韌性。

Yeah, the only thing I'd add, Chris, to what Denis said just to get a little bit more, we're not going to be able to quantify for you, but the things that you should look at. Obviously if you go back over the last 10 years, capital in the large banks has grown meaningfully over the last 10 years.

是的，Chris，我只想在 Denis 的說法上補充一點，讓它更具體一些——我們無法為你量化，但你應該看的幾件事是：很明顯，如果你回顧過去 10 年，大型銀行的資本在這 10 年間顯著增加。

And now, it's actually -- it's -- the growth has certainly stopped, and because one of the big things that drove the capital growth was the stress capital buffers for all the firms and the CCAR process, which was very opaque, and there's now going to be more transparency around the models and the CCAR process, I think you're getting a different result there.

而現在，實際上——資本成長確實已經停止了；因為推動資本成長的一個重要因素，是所有公司都有的壓力資本緩衝（SCB）以及 CCAR 流程，而那個流程非常不透明。

So one piece of the quantification comes from doing the analysis to look at how SCBs change from kind of 20. The late part of the last decade up to 2025 and where they are now and how they -- how they've evolved, that's the quantification. The second one was there was an expectation that Basel 3 was going to put more capital on top of the stack. That's another way that people thought capital was growing.

但現在的看法是，《巴塞爾協定 III》在最終定案時，可能更偏向一個中性事件。第三個是，GSIB 原本應該依照全球成長、以及寫入法規的市值成長來校準，但從未真正落實。所以 GSIB——隨著世界成長，GSIB 本不應該成長得像它實際成長得那麼快，但它卻成長得更快。

Now the perception is that Basel 3 is going to be more of a neutral event when it's ultimately closed out. And then the third thing is GSIB was supposed to be calibrated to growth in the world, and market cap growth that was put in the statute, but it never followed through. So GSIB, as the world grew, GSIB wasn't supposed to grow as fast as it was growing, but it grew faster.

那現在將會重新校準。那是另一項。所以如果你想大致計算這些差異，我會指出三個重要事項，讓你可以去看不同銀行並計算其影響。

That's now going to be recalibrated. That's another one. So if you want to kind of calculate those differences, those are three important things I would point you to where you can look at the different banks and calculate that impact.

That's very helpful. Thank you for that, David. Second question would be more of a business mix, desire, right? If you look at the fourth quarter revenue mix, trading 50%, IB 20%, AWM 25% dominant share, great growth.

這非常有幫助。謝謝你，David。第二個問題會比較偏向業務組合與偏好，對吧？如果你看第四季營收組合，交易 50%、投行（IB）20%、資產與財富管理（AWM）25% 為主導占比，成長很亮眼。

If you were to fast forward over the next few years, like what do you think this mix looks like? I mean, maybe how do you want to be viewed by the market because there are, I think, implications for the multiple that we all, want to put on your stock. Thank you.

如果把時間快轉到未來幾年，你覺得這個組合會長什麼樣子？我的意思是，你希望市場如何看待你們，因為我想這會影響到我們給你們股票的估值倍數。謝謝。

Yeah, we're going to continue, we are going to continue to invest in the growth of Asset & Wealth Management and we would like the mix to continue to evolve. I think it can evolve very slowly with the organic growth differential because this is not an unfortunately, but it's a reality. We've been able to grow Global Banking & Markets faster than we might have expected.

是的，我們會持續、我們會持續投資於資產與財富管理的成長，我們也希望這個組合能持續演變。我認為它可能會因為有機成長差異而非常緩慢地演變，因為這不是不幸，但這是現實。我們讓全球銀行與市場（GBM）的成長速度超出我們原先可能的預期。

And even though we've grown Asset & Wealth Management very nicely, just given the scale of the Global Banking & Markets, that's made the shift in mix slower than we might have all imagined if we go back five, six years and kind of think about the trajectory that we're on.

即使我們的資產與財富管理也成長得很不錯，但考量到全球銀行與市場的規模，這使得組合的轉移比我們回到五、六年前、想像我們所走的軌跡時所預期的還要慢。

We will try to find things that accelerate that. In addition to the organic, inorganically, again, with a real discipline around that, as I've stated over and over again, but I do think if you look forward, the mix of the firm will continue because the growth in Asset & Wealth Management is faster, it will continue to shift. And we're focused on that.

我們會嘗試找一些能加速這個轉變的事情。除了有機成長之外，在非有機方面也會——同樣地，我一再強調，我們會以真正的紀律來做；但我確實認為，往前看，公司的組合會持續轉移，因為資產與財富管理的成長更快，它會持續帶動占比變化。而我們正專注在這件事上。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

Saul Martinez，匯豐（HSBC）。

Hi, thanks for taking my question, squeezing me in. I just have one question, and it is -- it's a clarification more than anything to Erica's question about, where we are in the investment banking cycle, and I think, David, in your response, you said that your people are suggesting that in a base case view 2026 investment banking fees could be closer approach where they were in 2021, which was, over $14 billion and we're running, I think 2025 was a bit over $9 billion. The delta really is ECM obviously, and, advisory and DCM are kind of, tracking to those to 2021 levels already.

嗨，謝謝讓我提問、把我塞進來。我只有一個問題，這——與其說是別的，不如說是針對 Erica 的問題做個釐清：我們目前處在投資銀行週期的哪個位置。我想，David，在你的回覆中，你說你們的人認為在基本情境下，2026 年的投行費用可能會更接近 2021 年的水準，也就是超過 140 億美元；而我們目前的水準，我想 2025 年大概略高於 90 億美元。差距主要顯然在股票資本市場（ECM），而顧問與債券資本市場（DCM）基本上已經在追蹤、接近 2021 年的水準了。

But just wanted to clarify that were you talking about IB fees as a whole or were you talking about the individual segments advisory DCM? Apologize if it was clear to everybody else but me, but obviously an environment where you do $14 billion of investment banking fees. Would seem like an environment where your ROEs for GBM and the firm as a whole would be, materially above the mid-teen level. But just if you can, just clarify that would be helpful.

但我想釐清的是，你指的是整體投行費用，還是指個別分項——顧問、DCM？如果這對其他人都很清楚、只有我不清楚，先道歉；但顯然在一個你能做到 140 億美元投行費用的環境下，看起來你們 GBM 以及整體公司的股東權益報酬率（ROE）應該會顯著高於 10% 中段（mid-teen）的水準。所以如果可以的話，請再釐清一下，會很有幫助。

Sure, I'm sorry, Saul if I confused you. What I was referring to was advisory fees only. I was -- I'm sorry, what I was referring to was advisory volumes, excuse me, advisory volumes. Now advisory volumes are very correlated to fees, okay, but the chart that I was referring to was one that looked at three different cases for advisory volume, okay, so it wasn't, equity capital markets, et cetera.

當然，Saul，如果我讓你困惑了我很抱歉。我指的是僅限顧問費用。我——抱歉，我指的是顧問交易量（advisory volumes），不好意思，是顧問交易量。顧問交易量與費用高度相關，好嗎，但我提到的那張圖是看顧問交易量的三種不同情境，所以不是股票資本市場等等。

I will tell you that what went on in 2021 with equity capital raising, particularly on the spat phenomenon, that's not going to occur in 2026. So my guess would be that equity capital markets levels will still be meaningfully below the 2021 peak in 2026, but they will be higher than they were this year.

我可以告訴你，2021 年在股權資本募資方面發生的事，特別是 SPAC 現象，那在 2026 年不會再出現。所以我猜 2026 年的股票資本市場水準仍會明顯低於 2021 年的高峰，但會高於今年。

That would be my estimate based on what we see today. But I was talking specifically about advisory volumes when I made that quote. And look, the advisory, as we've said over and over again, when advisory activity grows, the flywheel creates lots of activity and we were talking industry-wide, not just GS, looking just at industry-wide volume.

這是我根據我們今天所看到的情況做出的估計。但我在提到那個數字時，特別是在談顧問交易量。而且你看，顧問業務——我們一再說過——當顧問活動成長時，飛輪效應會帶來大量活動；我們談的是全產業層面，不只是高盛（GS），而是看整個產業的總量。

Yeah, okay, got it, no, that, that's helpful, thank you for clarifying that.

好的，了解了，不，那很有幫助，謝謝你釐清。

Yeah.

嗯。

Thank you. At this time, there are no additional questions. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。各位女士、先生，這就結束高盛 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。