高盛 (GS) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎各位參加高盛2025年第四季財報電話會議。我謹代表高盛，先聲明以下免責聲明。

The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of the Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. This audio cast is copyrighted material of the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. And may not be duplicated, reproduced, or rebroadcast without consent.

獲利報告可在高盛網站的投資者關係頁面上找到，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非GAAP指標的資訊。本音頻節目為高盛集團有限公司的版權所有，未經許可不得複製、轉載或重新播出。

This call is being recorded today, January 15, 2026. I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman. Thank you, Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

本次通話於2026年1月15日進行錄音。現在我將把電話交給董事長兼執行長大衛·所羅門和財務長丹尼斯·科爾曼。謝謝索羅門先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us. I'm very pleased with our strong performance in the fourth quarter where we generated earnings per share of $14.01, an ROE of 16% and a ROTE of 17.1%.

謝謝接線生。各位早安。感謝各位的參與。我對我們第四季度的強勁業績非常滿意，我們實現了每股收益 14.01 美元，淨資產收益率 (ROE) 為 16%，淨資產收益率 (ROTE) 為 17.1%。

For the full year, we delivered earnings per share of $51.32, a 27% increase versus last year, an ROE of 15% and aaROTE of 16%. Before we review our financials in detail, I want to discuss our longer-term performance and provide an update to you on our strategy.

全年來看，我們實現了每股收益 51.32 美元，比上年增長 27%，淨資產收益率為 15%，調整後總權益收益率為 16%。在詳細審查財務狀況之前，我想先討論我們的長期業績，並向您介紹我們的策略進展。

Beginning on page 1, in 2020, we held the firm's first investor day and laid out a clear and comprehensive strategy to grow and strengthen the firm. We also set a number of targets so we would be held accountable for our progress.

從第 1 頁開始，2020 年，我們舉辦了公司第一次投資者日，並制定了清晰全面的策略來發展壯大公司。我們也設定了一些目標，以便對我們的進展負責。

Since then, guided by our purpose to be the most exceptional financial institution in the world, supported by our core values of client service, integrity, partnership and excellence. We continue to successfully execute on this strategy.

從那時起，我們秉承成為世界上最傑出的金融機構的宗旨，並以客戶服務、誠信、合作和卓越為核心價值。我們繼續成功地執行這項戰略。

We increased firmwide revenues by roughly 60%. We grew EPS by 144%. We improved our returns by 500 basis points, and we delivered a total shareholder return of over 340%, the most of our peer group over this time frame.

我們公司整體營收成長了約 60%。我們的每股盈餘成長了144%。我們的殖利率提高了 500 個基點，股東總回報率超過 340%，在同期同業中位居榜首。

As you can see on page 2, we achieved this while also materially improving the risk profile of the firm and enhancing the resilience of our earnings. We have doubled our more durable revenues. We have reduced historical principal investments by over 90% from roughly $64 billion down to $6 billion.

如您在第 2 頁所見，我們在實現這一目標的同時，也顯著改善了公司的風險狀況，並增強了我們盈利的韌性。我們的耐用型收入翻了一番。我們已將歷史本金投資減少了 90% 以上，從約 640 億美元降至 60 億美元。

The results of these multi-year efforts to scale capitalized businesses and reduce our capital intensity were reflected in our most recent CCAR stress test, where we've driven a 320 basis point improvement in our stress capital buffer. All in, we have strengthened and grown the firm to a relentless focus on delivering excellence to our clients.

多年來，我們為擴大資本密集型業務規模和降低資本密集度所做的努力，在最近的 CCAR 壓力測試中得到了體現，我們的壓力資本緩衝提高了 320 個基點。總而言之，我們不斷壯大公司，始終專注於為客戶提供卓越的服務。

Turning to page 3. I want to highlight our strong execution in 2025. Our success is fueled by our world-class interconnected franchises that deliver one Goldman Sachs to our clients around the globe. In global banking and markets, we maintained our position as the number 1 M&A advisor in investment banking and number 1 equities franchise alongside our leading position and FICC.

翻到第3頁。我想重點強調我們在 2025 年的強勁執行力。我們的成功源自於我們世界一流的互聯互通的業務體系，這些體系為全球客戶提供統一的高盛服務。在全球銀行和市場領域，我們保持了在投資銀行併購諮詢領域排名第一的地位，以及在固定收益、外匯和大宗商品領域排名第一的地位。

We improved our standing with the top 150 clients in these businesses, which has contributed to 350 basis points of wallet share gains in GBM since 2019. We significantly increased our more durable FY and equity financing revenues, which grew to a new record of [$11.4 billion] for the year and generated returns in excess of 16% in the segment.

我們提高了與這些行業前 150 位客戶的關係，自 2019 年以來，這為 GBM 的錢包份額增長了 350 個基點。我們大幅提高了更持久的 FY 和股權融資收入，該收入在當年創下 [114 億美元] 的新紀錄，並在該領域產生了超過 16% 的回報。

In asset wealth management, we are a top 5 active asset manager, a leading alternatives franchise, and a premier ultra-high net worth wealth manager. We've consistently grown more durable management, other fees in private banking and lending revenues, which were both records in 2025 and also raised a record $115 billion in alternatives. Our strong execution has led to improvement in both the margins and the returns in this segment.

在資產財富管理領域，我們是排名前 5 名的主動型資產管理公司，領先的另類投資特許經營商，以及頂級的超高淨值財富管理公司。我們持續成長了更持久的管理、私人銀行的其他費用和貸款收入，這兩項收入在 2025 年均創下紀錄，並且還籌集了創紀錄的 1,150 億美元另類投資。我們強而有力的執行使得該業務板塊的利潤率和回報率都得到了提升。

Importantly, we're taking the final steps needed to narrow our strategic focus. In addition to completing the transition of the General Motors credit card program last August, last week, we announced an agreement to transition the Apple card portfolio.

重要的是，我們正在採取必要的最後步驟來縮小我們的策略重點。除了去年 8 月完成通用汽車信用卡專案的過渡之外，上週我們還宣布了一項過渡蘋果信用卡組合的協議。

Let's turn to page 4 for a deeper dive on our franchises, starting with investment banking, where we have been the number 1 M&A advisor for 23 consecutive years. Very few, if any, service businesses of our size can claim long-standing leadership to this degree.

讓我們翻到第 4 頁，深入了解我們的特許經營業務，首先是投資銀行業務，我們已連續 23 年成為排名第一的併購顧問。像我們這樣規模的服務型企業，很少有能像我們這樣長期保持領先地位的。

This is a reflection of the strength of our client relationships as well as the quality of our people and the advice and execution capabilities they bring to our clients. Since 2020, we've generated an incremental $5 billion in advisory revenues versus the number two competitor.

這體現了我們與客戶關係的牢固性，以及我們員工的品質和他們為客戶提供的建議和執行能力。自 2020 年以來，我們比排名第二的競爭對手增加了 50 億美元的諮詢收入。

And in 2025 alone, we've advised on more than 1.6 trillion of announced M&A transaction volumes over 250 billion ahead of the next closest peer. Over the last year, we've seen high levels of client engagement across our investment banking franchise, and we expect activity to accelerate in 2026. Our outlook is supported by a number of catalog.

光是 2025 年，我們就已為超過 1.6 兆美元的已公佈併購交易額提供諮詢服務，比排名第二的同業領先 2,500 億美元。過去一年，我們在投資銀行業務中看到了客戶的高度參與，我們預計 2026 年業務活動將加速發展。我們的觀點得到了許多產品目錄的支持。

Corporate focus on strategically positioning, scale and innovation. The tremendous public and private capital fueling growth in AI. As well as a strong pickup and sponsor activity, given our best in class sponsor franchise, we're especially well positioned to help sponsors deploy the $1 trillion of dry powder they hold and monetize the roughly $4 trillion of value across their portfolio companies.

企業重點在於策略定位、規模化和創新。人工智慧領域龐大的公共和私人資本正在推動其發展。除了強勁的投資和贊助商活動外，憑藉我們一流的贊助商資源，我們尤其有能力幫助贊助商部署他們持有的 1 兆美元可用資金，並將其投資組合公司約 4 兆美元的價值貨幣化。

Increased levels of engagement are reflected in our backlog, which stands at its highest level in four years. M&A transactions often kick off a flywheel of activity across our entire franchise. Whether it's acquisition, financing, hedging activity, secondary market making or investing opportunities for AWM clients, it is unquestionable that there is a significant multiplier effect. And as the number one advisor for over two decades, we are uniquely positioned to capture the significant forward opportunity.

客戶參與度的提高反映在我們的訂單積壓量上，目前訂單積壓量已達到四年來的最高水準。併購交易往往會在我們整個業務範圍內引發一系列連鎖反應。無論是收購、融資、對沖活動、二級市場交易或AWM客戶的投資機會，毫無疑問，都存在著顯著的乘數效應。作為二十多年來排名第一的顧問公司，我們擁有獨特的優勢來掌握未來巨大的發展機會。

Moving to page 5. Another growth engine for GBM has been our leading origination and financing businesses. Last year, we announced the creation of the Capital Solutions Group, formalizing a hub to provide our clients a comprehensive suite of financing, origination, structuring and risk management offerings across both public and private markets.

翻到第5頁。GBM 的另一個大成長引擎是我們領先的貸款發起和融資業務。去年，我們宣布成立資本解決方案集團，正式設立一個中心，為我們的客戶提供涵蓋公共和私人市場的一整套融資、發起、結構化和風險管理服務。

On the public side, we are optimistic about the outlook for equity and debt underwriting, particularly amid the resurgence in the IPO market and a higher acquisition finance related activity. We have a long-standing track record and leading market positions.

在公開市場方面，我們對股權和債務承銷的前景持樂觀態度，尤其是在IPO市場復甦和收購融資相關活動增加的情況下。我們擁有長期良好的業績記錄和領先的市場地位。

On the private side, our ability to structure holistic solutions has led to a number of asset-backed financings across infrastructure, transportation and data centers supported by strong origination structuring that feed opportunities across our client franchise and our asset management platform.

在私人領域，我們建立整體解決方案的能力促成了基礎設施、運輸和資料中心領域的多項資產支援融資，這得益於強大的發起結構，從而為我們的客戶群和資產管理平台創造了機會。

These capabilities have supported our deliberate strategy to grow our more durable financing revenues, providing a ball to our results and comprising 37% of total FY and equity revenues in 2025. Since 2021, these have increased at a 17% CAGR, and with risk management always top of mind, we still expect to prudently drive growth from here.

這些能力支持了我們發展更持久的融資收入的策略，為我們的業績提供了動力，並在 2025 年佔全年總收入和股權收入的 37%。自 2021 年以來，這些指標以 17% 的複合年增長率成長，並且始終將風險管理放在首位，我們仍然希望在此基礎上謹慎地推動成長。

On page 6, we illustrate the strength and resilience of the FICC and equities intermediation businesses. We have demonstrated where we have a demonstrated ability to deliver strong results in a broad array of market environments. While client activity levels in different asset classes ebb and flow in any given quarter, our overall results have been remarkably consistent over time.

在第 6 頁，我們闡述了固定收益、大宗商品和股票中介業務的實力和韌性。我們已經證明，我們有能力在各種市場環境下取得優異的業績。儘管在任何特定季度，不同資產類別的客戶活躍度都會有所波動，但我們的整體業績長期以來一直保持著顯著的穩定性。

This reflects the breadth and diversification of these businesses which have been bolstered by our share gains. We see even more opportunities to further strengthen our franchise. This includes investing to improve our market-making capabilities and broaden offerings for active and passive ETF issuers.

這反映了這些業務的廣度和多元化，而我們的股價上漲也增強了這些業務的實力。我們看到了更多進一步加強我們特許經營權的機會。這包括投資以提高我們的做市能力，並擴大對主動型和被動型 ETF 發行商的產品範圍。

In addition, we are working to close share gaps with key client segments, including insurers, wealth managers, and RIAs, as well as in certain product areas like corporate derivatives. Geographically, we are looking to close the share GAAP in Asia. In part, by focusing on these areas.

此外，我們正在努力縮小與主要客戶群（包括保險公司、財富管理公司和註冊投資顧問）以及某些產品領域（如公司衍生性商品）的份額差距。從地理上看，我們希望在亞洲實現股份 GAAP 的收盤。部分原因在於，我們專注於這些領域。

Turning to page 7, our scaled asset and wealth management business has $3.6 trillion in assets under supervision with global breadth and depth across products and solutions. We've grown more durable revenues across management and other fees in private banking and lending at a 12% CAGR ahead of our target, and we continue to see significant opportunities across wealth management, alternatives and solutions.

翻到第 7 頁，我們規模化的資產和財富管理業務管理著 3.6 兆美元的資產，產品和解決方案在全球範圍內具有廣度和深度。我們在私人銀行和貸款業務的管理費和其他費用方面實現了更持久的收入成長，年複合成長率達到 12%，高於我們的目標，我們繼續看到財富管理、另類投資和解決方案方面存在著巨大的機會。

We have also improved our AWM margins and returns and given our growth outlook across these businesses, we are setting new targets. We're increasing our pre-tax margin to 30 -- pre-tax margin target to 30%, which will help drive high teen returns in AWM over the medium term. Let's dive deeper into our key growth opportunities, starting with wealth management on page 8.

我們也提高了AWM的利潤率和回報率，鑑於這些業務的成長前景，我們正在設定新的目標。我們將稅前利潤率提高到 30%——稅前利潤率目標為 30%，這將有助於在中期內推動 AWM 實現兩位數以上的高回報。讓我們深入探討我們的關鍵成長機會，首先從第 8 頁的財富管理開始。

Over the last 50 years, we have built a premier franchise with 1.9 trillion in client assets that is centered around meeting the distinctive investing, planning, and borrowing needs of the ultra-high net worth individuals, family offices, endowments, and foundations.

在過去的 50 年裡，我們建立了一個擁有 1.9 兆美元客戶資產的頂級特許經營體系，其核心是滿足超高淨值個人、家族辦公室、捐贈基金和基金會的獨特投資、規劃和借貸需求。

Over the last five years, we drove long-term fee-based inflows at an annual pace of 6% and grew wealth management revenues at a CAGR of 11%. We expect further growth from here. Specifically, we are broadening our client base by increasing the number of advisers and content specialists globally. We're expanding our loan product offerings in line with client demand.

過去五年，我們實現了長期收費資金每年 6% 的成長，財富管理收入年複合成長率達到 11%。我們預計未來還將繼續成長。具體來說，我們正在透過增加全球顧問和內容專家的數量來擴大客戶群。我們正在根據客戶需求擴大貸款產品範圍。

We are enhancing alternative investment offerings to facilitate clients moving closer to their optimal target allocation. And continuing, we are continuing elevating the overall client experience, including via enhanced digital offerings and more expansive thought leadership engagements that lever the convening power of Goldman Sachs. To sharpen our focus on future growth and wealth management, we are introducing a new target of 5% long-term fee-based net inflows annually across the platform.

我們正在加強另類投資產品，以幫助客戶更接近其最佳目標配置。我們將持續提升整體客戶體驗，包括透過增強數位化產品和服務，以及更廣泛地進行思想領導活動，充分利用高盛的召集能力。為了更專注於未來的成長和財富管理，我們推出了一項新的目標，即平台每年實現 5% 的長期收費淨流入。

On page 9, we highlight our other key growth opportunities in asset and wealth management. Alternatives and solutions. We have a leading alternatives platform where we've raised $438 billion since our 2020 investor day, and we have grown alternative alternatives management and other fees to a record $2.4 billion.

在第 9 頁，我們重點介紹了我們在資產和財富管理領域的其他主要成長機會。替代方案和解決方案。我們擁有領先的另類投資平台，自 2020 年投資者日以來，我們已籌集了 4,380 億美元，另類投資管理費和其他費用已增長至創紀錄的 24 億美元。

We continue to scale our flagship fund programs while concurrently developing new strategies. Given our success in strengthening and growing our alternative platforms, we believe we can raise between $75 and $100 billion annually on a sustainable basis. As these funds continue to be deployed, we expect double-digit growth in alternative management and other fees.

我們不斷擴大旗艦基金專案的規模，同時也開發新的策略。鑑於我們在加強和發展另類投資平台方面的成功，我們相信我們可以每年可持續地籌集 750 億至 1000 億美元的資金。隨著這些資金的持續投入，我們預計另類管理費和其他費用將實現兩位數的成長。

We expect fee-paying alternatives -- alternative assets under supervision to reach $750 billion by 2030. This further supports our existing target of generating $1 billion in incentive fees annually. We're also pleased with the progress across our solutions business, where we see secular growth in demand for our products and services.

我們預計到 2030 年，收費另類投資（受監管的另類資產）規模將達到 7,500 億美元。這進一步支持了我們每年產生10億美元激勵費用的現有目標。我們對解決方案業務的進展也感到滿意，我們看到市場對我們的產品和服務的需求呈現長期成長趨勢。

We are the number 1 outsourced CIO manager in the US, providing clients a one-stop shop for their investment needs, advice, portfolio construction, risk management, and hedging, and we've won significant global mandates this year from firms including Eli Lilly and Shell. We are also the number 1 separately managed account platform and the second largest insurance solutions provider.

我們是美國排名第一的外包首席投資長管理公司，為客戶提供一站式投資服務，包括諮詢、投資組合建構、風險管理和對沖。今年，我們贏得了包括禮來公司和殼牌公司在內的多家公司的重大全球委託。我們也是排名第一的獨立管理帳戶平台和第二大保險解決方案提供者。

Looking forward, we see continued opportunities for growth, including in third-party wealth in the context of alternative offerings, ETFs, and customized solutions like direct indexing. In addition, we are expanding our capabilities in the retirement channel via partnerships, further deepening our strong relationships with insurers and enhancing our offerings for institutional clients, including sovereign wealth funds.

展望未來，我們看到持續的成長機會，包括在另類投資產品、ETF 和客製化解決方案（如直接指數化）的背景下的第三方財富管理領域。此外，我們正在透過合作拓展我們在退休管道的能力，進一步深化與保險公司的牢固關係，並增強我們為機構客戶（包括主權財富基金）提供的服務。

Turning to page 10, building on our strong organic growth, we're accelerating our growth trajectory and asset wealth management to our recent strategic partnership and acquisition. Our collaboration with T. Rowe Price will deliver a range of public and private market solutions for retirement and wealth investors. Last month, we announced the launch of co-branded model portfolios, the first of four planned product offerings.

翻到第 10 頁，在強勁的內生成長基礎上，我們正​​透過最近的策略合作和收購，加速成長軌跡和資產財富管理。我們與 T. Rowe Price 的合作將為退休和財富投資者提供一系列公共和私人市場解決方案。上個月，我們宣布推出聯名車型系列，這是計劃推出的四款產品中的第一款。

We recently closed the acquisition of Industry ventures, venture capital platform that adds an attractive technology investment capability to our market-leading secondaries investing franchise XIG, where we now have over $500 billion in assets under supervision.

我們最近完成了對 Industry Ventures 的收購，這是一個風險投資平台，為我們市場領先的二級市場投資機構 XIG 增添了極具吸引力的技術投資能力，目前我們在 XIG 管理的資產超過 5000 億美元。

Most recently, we announced the acquisition of Innovator, which significantly scales our businesses to be in the top 10 of active ETF providers globally, particularly in the fast-growing outcome-based ETF segment. While the bar for transformational M&A remains very high, we will continue to look for ways to accelerate growth in asset wealth management.

最近，我們宣布收購 Innovator，這將大大擴大我們的業務規模，使我們躋身全球前 10 名主動型 ETF 提供者之列，尤其是在快速成長的基於結果的 ETF 領域。儘管變革性併購的門檻仍然很高，但我們將繼續尋找加速資產財富管理成長的方法。

Turning to page 11, we have a long history of prudent and dynamic capital management, and our philosophy remains unchanged. We prioritize investing across our client franchises at attractive returns, sustainably growing our dividends, and returning excess capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks.

翻到第 11 頁，我們有著悠久的審慎而靈活的資本管理歷史，我們的理念至今仍未改變。我們優先考慮在客戶業務範圍內進行具有吸引力的回報投資，可持續地提高股息，並將多餘的資本以股票回購的形式返還給股東。

We see meaningful opportunities to deploy capital across our franchise. This includes leaning into acquisition financing as M&A activity accelerates, supporting growth in equities and financing, and increasing lending to our ultra-high net worth clients. That said, given our strong earnings generation capability and excess capital positions, we also have capacity to return more capital to shareholders.

我們看到了在整個特許經營體系內部署資本的重大機會。這包括隨著併購活動的加速，增加對收購融資的投入，支持股票和融資的成長，並增加對超高淨值客戶的貸款。也就是說，鑑於我們強大的獲利能力和充裕的資本，我們也有能力向股東返還更多資本。

Today we are announcing a $0.50 increase in our quarterly dividend to $4.50 representing a 50% increase from a year ago. In addition, we have $32 billion of remaining buyback capacity under our current share repurchase authorization, and while we are mindful of our current stock price, we will remain dynamic in executing repurchases.

今天，我們宣布將季度股息提高 0.50 美元至 4.50 美元，比一年前增長 50%。此外，根據我們目前的股票回購授權，我們還有 320 億美元的剩餘回購額度。雖然我們專注於目前的股價，但我們仍將靈活地執行回購計畫。

Turning to page 12. As we continue to grow the firm and strategically deploy our balance sheet to support client activity, our unwavering focus remains on maintaining a disciplined risk management framework and robust standards.

翻到第12頁。隨著公司不斷發展壯大，並策略性地部署資產負債表以支援客戶業務，我們始終堅定不移地專注於維持嚴謹的風險管理框架和穩健的標準。

We've been on a multi-year journey to diversify our funding footprint, including building strategic deposit raising channels such as private banking, markets and transaction banking. This has significantly improved our funding structure. Our deposits have grown to $501 billion and now represent roughly 40% of our total funding.

多年來，我們一直在努力實現融資管道多元化，包括建立策略性存款管道，例如私人銀行、市場和交易銀行。這極大地改善了我們的資金結構。我們的存款已成長至 5,010 億美元，約占我們總資金的 40%。

We continue to optimize activity in our bank equity, which held 35% of firmwide assets at year-end versus 25% at the time of our first investor day. Overall, this progress underscores our commitment to the diversification and resiliency of our funding profile, which has improved our funding costs and our financial flexibility.

我們持續優化銀行權益活動，截至年底，銀行權益占公司整體資產的 35%，而首次投資者日時這一比例為 25%。整體而言，這項進展凸顯了我們對融資結構多元化和增強韌性的承諾，從而降低了融資成本，並提高了財務靈活性。

All in, a robust capital position, diversified funding mix, dynamic liquidity management, and strong risk discipline are foundational to the strength and stability of our balance sheets, allowing us to meet the evolving demands of our clients.

總而言之，穩健的資本狀況、多元化的融資組合、動態的流動性管理以及嚴格的風險控制是我們資產負債表實力和穩定性的基礎，使我們能夠滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。

Moving to page 13. Last quarter we announced the one Goldman Sachs 3.0. We announced the launch of one Goldman Sachs 3.0, our new operating model propelled by AI. We are excited to embark on this effort, starting with six work streams we identified as ripe for disruption.

翻到第13頁。上個季度，我們宣布推出高盛 3.0。我們宣布推出高盛 3.0，這是我們由人工智慧驅動的全新營運模式。我們很高興能夠著手這項工作，首先從我們認為有待改變的六個工作流程開始。

Our people have begun thorough assessments of opportunities for efficiency, and we will then we will then invest to re-engineer these processes from the ground up. We will be measuring and driving accountability, and we will update you over the coming year with additional details regarding these metrics.

我們的人員已經開始對提高效率的機會進行全面評估，然後我們將投資從根本上重新設計這些流程。我們將衡量並推動問責制，並在未來一年內向您提供有關這些指標的更多細節。

Let's turn to page 14. The exceptional service we provide our clients is a direct result of our people who are our most important assets. Our client franchise is powered by our best in class talent and culture, and it is critical that we continue to invest in them.

讓我們翻到第14頁。我們為客戶提供的卓越服務，直接得益於我們最寶貴的資產—員工。我們的客戶群得益於我們一流的人才和企業文化，因此我們必須繼續投資他們。

Goldman Sachs is an aspirational brand around the globe, which allows us to attract quality talent at all levels. As an example, in 2025, we had over 1.1 million experienced hire applications, a 33% increase from last year, and in our summer internship program we maintained a selection rate of less than 1%.

高盛是全球令人嚮往的品牌，這使我們能夠吸引各個層級的優秀人才。例如，到 2025 年，我們收到了超過 110 萬份經驗豐富的員工招聘申請，比去年增加了 33%，而我們的暑期實習生計畫錄取率保持在 1% 以下。

Many of these individuals will have long careers at the firm, exemplified by the fact that roughly 45% of our partners started as campus hires. And while some leave for opportunities elsewhere, these firms often become important clients of Goldman Sachs.

這些人中有很多將在公司長期任職，例如，我們約 45% 的合夥人都是從校園招募做起的。雖然有些公司為了尋求其他發展機會而離開，但這些公司往往會成為高盛的重要客戶。

Today, more than 650 of our alumni are in C-suite roles at companies with either a market cap greater than $1 billion or assets under management greater than $5 billion. On page 15, we outline our firm wide through the cycle targets.

如今，我們有超過 650 位校友在市值超過 10 億美元或管理資產超過 50 億美元的公司擔任高階主管職位。第 15 頁，我們概述了公司在整個週期內的目標。

Given the successful execution against our strategic priorities, we are confident that we will continue to deliver on these, and in the near term, we believe there are catalysts that position us to exceed our return targets.

鑑於我們在策略重點方面取得了成功，我們有信心繼續實現這些目標，我們相信，在短期內，有一些催化劑將使我們能夠超越我們的回報目標。

We have the number one M&A advisory. We are the number one M&A advisor within our leading global banking and markets franchise that is poised to capitalize on a cyclical upswing in investment banking activity, a scaled asset and wealth management business with higher margin and return targets and clear opportunities for future growth and tailwinds from a more balanced regulatory regime.

我們擁有頂尖的併購諮詢服務。我們是全球領先的銀行和市場特許經營機構中排名第一的併購顧問，我們已做好準備，利用投資銀行業務的周期性上升、規模化的資產和財富管理業務（具有更高的利潤率和回報目標）以及未來增長的明確機會和更加平衡的監管制度帶來的利好。

In closing, I am incredibly proud of what we have delivered, and I'm confident that we will continue to serve our clients with excellence and drive strong returns for our shareholders. Let me now turn it over to Denis to cover our financial results in more detail.

最後，我對我們所取得的成就感到無比自豪，我相信我們將繼續以卓越的服務回饋客戶，並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。現在我把麥克風交給丹尼斯，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, David, and good morning. Let's start with our results on page 16 of the presentation. In the fourth quarter we generated revenues of $13.5 billion earnings per share of $14.01, an ROE of 16%, and a ROTE of 17.1%.

謝謝你，大衛，早安。讓我們先來看看簡報第 16 頁的結果。第四季度，我們實現了 135 億美元的收入，每股收益為 14.01 美元，淨資產收益率為 16%，總回報率為 17.1%。

For the full year, we delivered earnings per share of $51.32, a 27% increase versus last year. An ROE of 15% and a ROTE of 16%, improving 230 and 250 basis points respectively, compared to 2024. As David mentioned, we announced an agreement to transition the Apple Cart portfolio.

全年來看，我們每股收益為 51.32 美元，比上年增長 27%。2024 年的 ROE 為 15%，ROTE 為 16%，分別比 2024 年提高了 230 和 250 個基點。正如大衛所提到的，我們宣布了一項過渡 Apple Cart 產品組合的協議。

For the quarter, the transition had a net positive impact of $0.46 to EPS and 50 basis points to ROE. As a $2.3 billion revenue reduction was more than offset by a $2.5 billion reserve release upon moving the portfolio to held for sale.

本季度，此次轉型對每股盈餘產生了 0.46 美元的淨正向影響，對淨資產收益率產生了 50 個基點的正向影響。儘管收入減少了 23 億美元，但由於將投資組合轉為待售狀態，釋放了 25 億美元的儲備金，因此收入減少的損失被完全抵消。

Given that we are taking our final steps to narrow our strategic focus, you will have seen we implemented minor organizational changes and made corresponding updates to our segments, which are incorporated in our earnings presentation today.

鑑於我們正在採取最後步驟來縮小策略重點，您可能已經看到我們實施了一些小的組織結構調整，並對我們的業務部門進行了相應的更新，這些調整已納入我們今天的收益報告中。

Turning to results by segment. Starting on page 18, global banking and markets produced record revenues of $41.5 billion for the year, up 18% amid broad-based strength versus last year. In the fourth quarter, investment banking fees of $2.6 billion rose 25% year-over-year, driven by increases in each of advisory, debt underwriting, and equity underwriting.

接下來按細分市場查看結果。從第 18 頁開始，全球銀行業和市場業務全年收入創下 415 億美元的紀錄，較上年增長 18%，這得益於整體強勁的增長勢頭。第四季度，投資銀行費用為 26 億美元，年增 25%，主要得益於諮詢、債務承銷和股權承銷費用的成長。

For 2025, we maintained our number one position in the league tables for announced and completed M&A and also ranked first in leverage lending. We ranked third in equity underwriting and second in common stock offerings, convertibles and high yield offerings.

2025 年，我們在已宣布和已完成的併購排行榜上保持了第一的位置，並且在槓桿貸款方面也排名第一。我們在股權承銷方面排名第三，在普通股發行、可轉換債券和高收益債券發行方面排名第二。

Even with very strong accruals in the fourth quarter, our investment banking backlog rose for a seventh consecutive quarter to a four year high, primarily driven by advisory. As David mentioned, we are optimistic on the investment banking outlook for 2026 and the multiplier effect this activity has across our franchise.

儘管第四季度應計收入非常強勁，但我們的投資銀行積壓訂單連續第七個季度增長，達到四年來的最高水平，這主要得益於諮詢業務的推動。正如大衛所提到的，我們對 2026 年投資銀行業前景以及這項活動對我們整個業務產生的乘數效應持樂觀態度。

Big net revenues were $3.1 billion in the quarter, up 12% year-over-year. In intermediation, the 15% year over year increase was driven by rates and commodities. And in financing, revenues rose 7% to a new record on better results within mortgages and structured lending.

該季度淨收入達 31 億美元，年增 12%。在中介業務方面，年增 15% 是由利率和大宗商品推動的。在融資方面，由於抵押貸款和結構性貸款業務業績改善，收入成長了 7%，創下新紀錄。

Equities net revenues were $4.3 billion in the quarter. Equities intermediation revenues were $2.2 billion up 11% year-over-year on better performance and derivatives. Equities financing results hit a quarterly record of $2.1 billion up 42% versus the prior year amid record average balances in prime. For the full year, total equities net revenues were a record $16.5 billion surpassing last year's record by over $3 billion, helped by the multi-year investments we've made in this business.

本季股票淨收入為 43 億美元。受業績和衍生性商品業務好轉的影響，股票中介業務收入為 22 億美元，較去年同期成長 11%。股票融資業績季度創下 21 億美元的紀錄，比去年同期成長 42%，優質股的平均餘額也創下紀錄。全年來看，股權淨收入總額創下 165 億美元的紀錄，比去年的紀錄高出 30 多億美元，這得益於我們多年來對該業務的投資。

Moving to asset and wealth management on page 20. For 2025, revenues were $16.7 billion and our pre-tax margin was 25%. Segment ROE for the year was 12.5%, and in the mid-teens, when adjusted for the 230 basis point impact from HPI and its related equity, as well as the FDIC special assessment fee.

第 20 頁將介紹資產和財富管理。2025 年，公司營收為 167 億美元，稅前利潤率為 25%。該年度分部 ROE 為 12.5%，在扣除 HPI 及其相關權益的 230 個基點影響以及 FDIC 特別評估費後，達到 15% 左右。

In the quarter, management and other fees were a record $3.1 billion up 5% sequentially and 10% year-over-year. Private banking and lending revenues rose 5% year-over-year to $776 million as higher results from lending and deposits related to wealth management clients were partially offset by NIM compression in the markets deposit portfolio.

本季管理費和其他費用達到創紀錄的 31 億美元，季增 5%，年增 10%。私人銀行和貸款收入年增 5% 至 7.76 億美元，其中與財富管理客戶相關的貸款和存款收入的成長部分被市場存款組合的淨利差收窄所抵消。

Incentive fees for the quarter were $181 million bringing our full year incentive fees to $489 million up 24% versus the prior year. We expect to make further progress in 2026 towards our annual target of $1 billion. Now moving to page 21.

本季激勵費用為 1.81 億美元，使全年激勵費用達到 4.89 億美元，比上年增長 24%。我們預計在 2026 年將朝著 10 億美元的年度目標取得進一步進展。現在翻到第21頁。

Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $3.6 trillion, driven by $66 billion of long-term fee-based net inflows across asset classes and $50 billion of liquidity inflows. In conjunction with our new long-term fee-based inflow target and wealth management, we are providing enhanced disclosures outlining inflows and long-term AUS by channel.

本季末，受監管的總資產達到創紀錄的 3.6 兆美元，這主要得益於各類資產的長期收費淨流入 660 億美元和流動性流入 500 億美元。配合我們新的長期收費資金流入目標和財富管理，我們將提供更完善的披露信息，按渠道概述資金流入和長期澳大利亞證券投資計劃 (AUS)。

Turning to page 22 on alternatives. Alternative AUS totaled $420 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, driving $645 million in management and other fees. Gross third-party fundraising was $45 billion in the fourth quarter and $115 billion for the year.

翻到第22頁，了解其他方案。第四季末，另類資產管理規模總計達 4,200 億美元，帶來 6.45 億美元的管理費和其他費用。第三季第三方募款總額為 450 億美元，全年為 1,150 億美元。

Moving to page 24, our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $238 billion up sequencially reflecting higher collateralized lending balances. Provision for credit losses reflected a net benefit of $2.1 billion including the previously mentioned reserve release associated with the Apple card portfolio.

翻到第 24 頁，截至季末，我們的貸款組合總額為 2,380 億美元，季增，反映了抵押貸款餘額的增加。信貸損失準備金反映了 21 億美元的淨收益，其中包括先前提到的與 Apple 信用卡組合相關的準備金釋放。

Let's turn to expenses on page 25. Total operating expenses for the year were $37.5 billion. Compensation expenses were $18.9 billion and included $250 million of severance costs, driving a full year compensation ratio net of provisions of 31.8%. Full year non-compensation costs of $18.6 billion were up 9% year-over-year, driven primarily by higher transaction-based activity.

讓我們翻到第 25 頁來看費用問題。該年度總營運支出為375億美元。薪資支出為 189 億美元，其中包括 2.5 億美元的遣散費，扣除準備金後的全年薪酬比率為 31.8%。全年非薪酬成本為 186 億美元，較去年同期成長 9%，主要原因是交易活動增加。

While the operating environment for our businesses continues to improve, we remain committed to our key strategic priority of operating more efficiently and are maintaining a rigorous focus on advancing our productivity and efficiency initiatives as part of one Goldman Sachs 3.0.

儘管我們業務的經營環境持續改善，但我們仍然致力於提高營運效率這一關鍵戰略重點，並將繼續嚴格推進我們的生產力和效率提升計劃，作為高盛 3.0 的一部分。

Our effective tax rate for 2025 was 21.4%. For 2026, we expect a tax rate of approximately 20%.

我們2025年的實際稅率為21.4%。我們預計 2026 年的稅率約為 20%。

Next capital on slide 26. Our common equity tier one ratio was 14.4% at the end of the fourth quarter under the standardized approach. In the fourth quarter, we returned approximately $4.2 billion to common shareholders, including common stock repurchases of $3 billion and dividends of $1.2 billion.

下一張投影片上的資本。根據標準化方法，截至第四季末，我們的普通股一級資本適足率為 14.4%。第四季度，我們向普通股股東返還了約 42 億美元，其中包括 30 億美元的普通股回購和 12 億美元的股息。

In conclusion, our strong performance this year reflects the strength of our client franchise and our multi-year execution on our strategic priorities. We see a highly constructive setup for 2026 as the improving investment banking environment and our deep client connectivity position us to capture significant opportunities across the entire firm.

總之，我們今年的出色業績反映了我們強大的客戶基礎以及我們多年來在策略重點方面的有效執行。我們認為 2026 年情況非常有利，投資銀行環境的改善以及我們與客戶的緊密聯繫使我們能夠抓住整個公司範圍內的重大機會。

At the same time, we remain mindful that the operating environment can shift quickly. Economic growth, policy uncertainty, geopolitical developments and market volatility are factors we continue to monitor closely. And as always, disciplined risk management will remain central to how we serve clients and allocate resources.

同時，我們也時時刻刻意識到經營環境可能瞬息萬變。經濟成長、政策不確定性、地緣政治發展和市場波動是我們持續密切關注的因素。一如既往，嚴謹的風險管理仍是我們服務客戶和分配資源的核心。

Even so with solid momentum and growth opportunities across our businesses, we are optimistic on the forward outlook for Goldman Sachs and remain confident in our ability to deliver for clients and drive strong returns for shareholders.

即便如此，憑藉我們各項業務的穩健發展勢頭和成長機遇，我們對高盛的未來前景持樂觀態度，並對我們為客戶創造價值和為股東帶來強勁回報的能力充滿信心。

With that, we'll now open up the line for questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen. We will now take a moment to compile the Q&A roster. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。女士們，先生們。現在我們將花點時間整理問答環節名單。（操作說明）

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore。

Hi, thanks very much. Great, thoughts and detail in there. One narrow first. I guess I'll ask it simply, how do you plan to scale wealth from here. And I want to include that if you could, your aspirations, meaning you had a little experiment with United Capital, but like you're amazing in ultra-high net worth and I'm curious about the rest of wealth. You've done a couple of things in RIA land. So maybe we could talk about that and then zoom out after that. Thanks.

您好，非常感謝。很好，裡面有很多想法和細節。首先是一個狹窄的入口。我想我可以直接問，你打算如何從現在開始擴大你的財富規模？我還想補充一點，如果你可以的話，談談你的抱負，我的意思是，你曾嘗試過在聯合資本進行一些小實驗，但你在超高淨值領域非常出色，我對其他財富領域也很感興趣。你在RIA領域做了一些事情。所以或許我們可以先討論這個問題，然後再把視角拉遠。謝謝。

Sure. And I appreciate the question, Glenn. I think our ultra-high net worth franchise is extraordinary. I think we have a leading position here in the United States, strong, position, but obviously with room for more share and footprint in Europe and in Asia. But I think it's a highly differentiated offering for wealthy individuals and people that have very complex needs from a wealth perspective.

當然。格倫，感謝你的提問。我認為我們面向超高淨值客戶的特許經營模式非常出色。我認為我們在美國擁有領先地位，而且地位穩固，但顯然在歐洲和亞洲還有更大的市場份額和影響力。但我認為這是一款高度差異化的產品，專為富裕人士和在財富方面有非常複雜需求的人士而設計。

That business scales with people. You heard in and technology, but you heard in our remarks that we're continuing to invest in a broadening the footprint and the coverage available and the resources to expand that ultra-high net worth footprint.

該業務會隨著人員的增加而擴大規模。您聽到了我們在技術方面的講話，也聽到了我們將繼續投資擴大業務範圍和覆蓋面，並投入資源來擴大超高淨值客戶的業務範圍。

As you point out, we did do an experiment with United Capital, but we've reached the conclusion that the right way for us, given our manufacturing capability and asset management to really explore broader access to wealth is through third-party wealth channels.

正如您所指出的，我們確實與聯合資本進行了一項實驗，但我們得出的結論是，鑑於我們的製造能力和資產管理能力，真正探索更廣泛獲取財富的正確方法是透過第三方財富管道。

And so I think, we're making very significant investments in our third-party wealth capability. That includes partnerships with RIAs and footprint with RIAs. And we have great product manufacturing capability we can use others distribution, very effectively given our brand and our very complete diverse product offering, and that will help us continue to scale but in direct full service well, we're going to skip with, stick with ultra-high net worth wealth.

所以我認為，我們正在對第三方財富管理能力進行非常重要的投資。這包括與註冊投資顧問 (RIA) 建立合作關係以及與 RIA 建立業務聯繫。我們擁有強大的產品製造能力，憑藉我們的品牌和非常全面多樣化的產品供應，我們可以非常有效地利用其他分銷管道，這將有助於我們繼續擴大規模，但在直接提供全方位服務方面，我們將跳過，堅持服務於超高淨值財富。

And what's interesting is, obviously you've got a bunch of secular things going on that are growing the available people that need these services. You have a huge generational wealth transfer that's going on, that's bringing a whole new generation.

有趣的是，顯然有許多世俗因素在增加需要這些服務的人。一場巨大的世代財富轉移正在進行，它將為新一代帶來財富。

In these services and it's a very fragmented business and we think we have a very differentiated offering with lots of upside and look, you heard what we said about our capabilities and wealth and our target to continue to grow those long-term fee-based wealth assets by 5%, as we go forward.

在這些服務領域，這是一個非常分散的業務，我們認為我們擁有非常差異化的產品和服務，並且有很大的發展空間。你看，你也聽到了我們所謂的關於我們的能力和財富，以及我們未來繼續將這些長期收費財富資產成長 5% 的目標。

I appreciate all that, David. Bigger picture, obviously really strong results, good backdrop. Middle of the range despite all these strong results because I think there's mixed operating leverage or people always want more operating leverage during big market peaks.

大衛，我非常感激。從更宏觀的角度來看，結果非常出色，背景也很好。儘管業績表現強勁，但股價仍處於區間中位，因為我認為經營槓桿存在差異，或者人們總是希望在市場高峰期獲得更高的經營槓桿。

So I'm going to flip the comment around and just ask, what's your level of confidence you've raised the floor with everything that you've laid out. Everything you've executed on because in the past when markets pull back off highs, returns for you and others would drift back to the like low double-digits and sometimes a little bit lower but like I guess I'm curious on how much you think with all that progress you've built, how much have you raised the floor.

所以我想換個角度問，你對你提出的所有內容是否已經提高了標準有多大信心？你過去所做的一切都是因為，當市場從高點回落時，你和其他人的回報會回落到兩位數的低位，有時甚至更低。但我很好奇，在你取得所有這些進展之後，你認為你的底線提高了多少？

I think we've raised the floor, I think we've raised the floor meaningfully. Based on the work we've done, the growth that we've done. In particular, the growth of durable revenues, which will be less affected -- less affected -- not affected, but less affected if we get into some sort of a of a downturn or a more challenging environment. If you step back to our investor day, the firm's returns in the 10 years before our investor day averaged 9%.

我認為我們已經提高了底線，我認為我們已經實際提高了底線。基於我們所做的工作，以及我們所取得的進步。特別是持久性收入的成長，如果經濟出現某種衰退或環境更具挑戰性，這部分收入受到的影響會較小——受影響較小——不受影響，但不會受到影響。如果回顧我們的投資者日，該公司在投資者日之前的 10 年平均回報率為 9%。

And so I think we now are operating with a global banking and markets franchise that should run mid-teams through the cycle. That doesn't mean you couldn't get a very tough environment where it runs lower, but you can also get environments, and this is part of what we've said about 2026, where it has the potential to run higher, but I think we've uplifted the floor very significantly.

所以我認為，我們現在經營的是一個全球銀行和市場特許經營體系，它應該能夠讓中層團隊順利完成整個週期。這並不意味著你不會遇到非常艱難的環境，導致利率下降，但你也會遇到一些環境，就像我們之前提到的 2026 年的情況一樣，利率有可能上升，但我認為我們已經大幅提高了利率下限。

Now, of course, and a very severe downturns, it slows down activity. It impedes confidence, but I just think the firm is bigger, more diversified, much more durable and better positioned when we have that kind of environment than we've been before. Now I'm not going to predict the future, and I know, it's never a straight line, but I think we've uplifted it very materially.

當然，在經濟嚴重下滑的情況下，它會減緩經濟活動。雖然這會削弱信心，但我認為，在這種環境下，公司規模更大、業務更多元化、更具韌性，也比以前更有優勢。我不會預測未來，我知道未來不會一帆風順，但我認為我們已經在物質層面上取得了巨大的進展。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

Good morning. I guess maybe just sticking with the true cycle ROE, David, maybe the other end of the spectrum when I talk to investors just given where the stock's trading given the performance you've had and two structural things seem to be happening at Goldman Sachs. One is obviously the regulatory backdrop changing is creating more capital flex.

早安.我想也許應該堅持使用真正的周期 ROE，David，也許在與投資者交談時，考慮到股票目前的交易情況以及你取得的業績，以及高盛似乎正在發生的兩個結構性變化，應該採用另一種極端情況。顯而易見，監管環境的變化創造了更大的資本彈性。

And the productive focus that you had doubled down with the Goldman Sachs 3.0. Is it fair for a shareholder to assume that absent like big peaks and offs that the business is rebasing to maybe something better than mid-teens, returns, towards closer to high 10s, or is that sort of misplaced and misunderstanding kind of the business dynamics?

而您在「高盛3.0」中加倍投入的生產力重點，對於股東來說，在沒有大幅波動的情況下，是否可以合理地假設公司的回報率正在重新調整，從十幾個百分點提高到接近十幾個百分點？或者說，這是誤解，是對公司業務動態的曲解？

Well, I appreciate the question and look, our goal is going to continue to be to work very hard to do everything we can to continue to take the returns higher. We were very pointed in our comments on the last slide in that presentation that we're reaffirming our mid-teens targets.

感謝您的提問。我們的目標是繼續努力，盡一切可能提高收益。我們在簡報的最後一張投影片中明確指出，我們重申了我們設定的青少年年齡層的目標。

I certainly remember it. It's not that many quarters ago where many people on this call would ask questions about how we were going to get to mid teams. So we've arrived. I think we were pointed in saying this is an environment where the potential to be positioned to exceed targets in the near term is there, but as the previous set of questions just pointed out, there'll be other environments where there could be headwinds.

我當然記得。就在不久前的幾個季度，參加這個電話會議的許多人還會問我們如何才能進入中游隊伍。我們到了。我認為我們已經明確指出，在這種環境下，短期內有可能實現並超越目標，但正如前面的問題所指出的那樣，在其他環境下可能會遇到不利因素。

So I think we're very comfortable that we are operating as a mid-teenss firm. We think that we can do things that over time will drive upside to that, but we're not going to set targets until we're very comfortable that we've further elevated the firm.

所以我認為我們非常有信心，我們目前是一家年收入在十幾個百分點左右的公司。我們認為我們可以做一些事情，隨著時間的推移，這將推動公司業績的提升，但在我們非常有信心進一步提升公司業績之前，我們不會設定目標。

I think one of the most important things coming out of the presentation is the next step in our asset wealth management journey to tell you that given the work we've done and the progress we've made, we now have more confidence that we can operate that business at a higher margin, 30%, which drives a higher return. And so we're comfortable putting that target out and that of course elevates the overall performance of the of the firm.

我認為本次演講最重要的內容之一是，鑑於我們所做的工作和取得的進展，我們資產財富管理之旅的下一步是，我們可以更有信心以更高的利潤率（30%）經營這項業務，從而帶來更高的回報。因此，我們很樂意設定這個目標，這當然會提升公司的整體表現。

The other thing I just want to highlight that comes out of your comment is people think about the regulatory environment as changing the capital rules and giving us more capital flexibility, but I'd also highlight the regulatory environment of the last five years put costs and burdens on the firm that we now won't have going forward that actually gives us flexibility to invest over time in other things that drive growth.

我想強調的另一點是，人們認為監管環境的變化意味著資本規則的改變，從而賦予我們更大的資本靈活性，但我也想強調，過去五年的監管環境給公司帶來了成本和負擔，而這些成本和負擔我們現在將不再需要，這實際上使我們能夠隨著時間的推移靈活地投資於其他能夠推動增長的領域。

So it's not just the capital stuff that's important. It's also the fact that we and others in the industry were burdened by additional costs that now can be directed to what I call more productive growth and return for our clients and for our shareholders.

所以重要的不只是資金。此外，我們和業內其他公司之前承擔的額外成本現在可以用於我所說的更俱生產力的成長，並為我們的客戶和股東帶來回報。

That's great, and I guess maybe a second one just on capital deployment so it's very clear the bar for M&A is high, but when you think about just the stock valuation today, the regulatory backdrop, there is a cycle or in our environment where there is room to do something transformational. Just give us a sense in terms of, do you see, this is the right time or the if the right opportunity presents itself to do something that would shift the mix boost the mix of AWM business a lot more or do you think that's kind of anti-Goldman's DNA to do something that would be too large or transformational.

那太好了，我想也許可以再寫一篇關於資本部署的文章，這樣就能很清楚地說明併購的門檻很高，但當你考慮到今天的股票估值和監管環境時，就會發現存在一個週期，或者說在我們的環境中，存在著進行變革的空間。請您談談您的看法，您認為現在是合適的時機嗎？或者，如果出現合適的機會，您是否會採取一些措施來改變資產負債表組合，大幅提升資產負債管理業務的佔比？或者，您是否認為，採取規模過大或具有變革性的做法與高盛的基因相悖？

I appreciate the question, Ebrahim, but I'm going to be very consistent with what I've said. Multiple times, with this question, I, we're very, we feel very good about what we did in 2025, the T. Rowe Partnership and the two small acquisitions, they fill in gaps. They accelerate our journey in asset wealth management. But the bar for doing something significant and transformational is very high. And it has to be high, one, because there are very few really great large businesses.

感謝你的提問，易卜拉欣，但我會始終堅持我之前的說法。當我多次被問到這個問題時，我都表示，我們對 2025 年所做的事情感到非常滿意，T. Rowe Partnership 和兩項小型收購填補了空白。它們加速了我們在資產財富管理領域的發展。但是，要做到意義重大、具有變革性的事情，門檻非常高。而且這個數字必須很高，因為真正偉大的大型企業非常少。

Most of them are not for sale and available. And I think the cultural aspects of Goldman Sachs and what makes Goldman Sachs unique and different. There has to be a tremendous sensitivity to integrating businesses into it to make sure that Goldman Sachs can continue to be Goldman Sachs.

其中大部分都不出售，也無法購買。我認為高盛的文化因素以及使其獨特和與眾不同的原因很重要。要將各業務整合到自身體系中，必須具備極強的敏感性，以確保高盛能夠繼續保持高盛的本質。

And so, I won't say that we don't look at those things and think about those things, but I really, my key message is the bar is very high. I do think that we will see, other things like the things that we've done. That can accelerate our journey and therefore increase the growth trajectory of the asset wealth management business.

所以，我不會說我們不關注這些事情，不考慮這些事情，但我真的，我的主要訊息是，標準非常高。我認為我們會看到，其他一些事情，例如我們已經做過的事情。這可以加速我們的發展進程，進而提高資產財富管理業務的成長速度。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

Hi, good morning. I hate framing this question this way, but I can't think of a better way to frame it. In terms of the capital market cycle, ahead, what inning are we in? And as investors think about the scale of potential upside to Goldman. maybe compare and contrast the preconditions that you see for the capital markets backdrop in 2026 with 2021, and I'm only asking this question as investors try to think about the EPS potential of your company. And I think 2021, is sort of seen as like a ceiling in terms of what you could produce in this business.

您好，早安。我很討厭用這種方式提問，但我想不出更好的問法。就資本市場週期而言，我們目前處於第幾個階段？當投資人思考高盛的潛在上漲空間時，或許可以比較一下您認為2026年和2021年資本市場背景的先決條件。我提出這個問題，是因為投資人正在考慮貴公司每股盈餘的潛力。我認為 2021 年在某種程度上被視為這個產業產量的上限。

I'll give you a couple of things, Erika, to think about, and I appreciate the question. The first thing I'd just say is, as a student of these businesses for decades and decades and decades, I would bet you that 2021 is not the ceiling. That doesn't mean that in this cycle, we surpassed 2021 because things can change and things can go wrong. But this business, when you go back and you step out and you look over, 25, 30 years, there's not a ceiling that hasn't been exceeded.

艾麗卡，我有幾點建議供你思考，感謝你的提問。首先我想說的是，作為研究這些行業幾十年的老手，我可以肯定地說，2021年絕對不是極限。但這並不意味著在這個週期中，我們已經超越了 2021 年，因為情況可能會發生變化，也可能會出錯。但是，當你回顧過去 25 年、30 年，你會發現這個行業已經突破了所有瓶頸。

At some point down the road as you run through cycles, and I'm sure given the growth of market capital world and activity, the 2021 activity levels will be exceeded again. They might be exceeded in 2026. There was a slide that my team was showing me that shows a range of outcomes, including a conservative outcome for M&A base outcome for M&A, and a bowl outcome for M&A. And the base outcome is pretty close to 2021, and the bowl outcome is ahead of 2021.

隨著經濟週期的更迭，我相信，鑑於市場資本和經濟活動的成長，2021年的經濟活動水準將會再次被超越。這些數字可能會在2026年被超越。我的團隊給我展示了一張幻燈片，上面顯示了一系列結果，包括併購的保守結果、併購的基本結果和併購的極端結果。基本結果與 2021 年非常接近，而碗賽結果則優於 2021 年。

I think the world is set up at the moment to be incredibly constructive in 2026 for M&A and capital markets activity, and I think the likely scenario is that it is a very good year for M&A and capital markets activity. What could change that?

我認為目前世界情勢有利於2026年的併購和資本市場活動，我認為最有可能的情況是，2026年將是併購和資本市場活動非常好的一年。什麼因素會改變這種狀況？

Something could go on in the world, some sort of an exogenous event or a macro event that changes the sentiment. If you look at 2025, we saw that in April for a period of time and things got slowed down. I don't think that's the likely outcome, but it's certainly in the distribution as a possibility.

世界上可能會發生一些事情，一些外生事件或宏觀事件會改變人們的情緒。如果你看看 2025 年，我們在 4 月看到了一段時間，事情進展放緩了。我不認為這是可能的結果，但這確實是一種可能性。

But I do think that we are, not yet in the middle of the potential for a full-on M&A and sponsor cycle and I think over the next few years, barring some sort of an exogenous event that slows it down, we're going to have a pretty constructive environment. For those activities, given the combination of fiscal, monetary, capital investment, deregulatory stimulus, you've got this combination of stimulus activity that I think is pretty constructive for these businesses.

但我認為，我們尚未進入全面併購和投資週期的階段，而且我認為在未來幾年內，除非發生某種外在事件減緩這一進程，否則我們將擁有一個相當積極的環境。對於這些活動而言，考慮到財政、貨幣、資本投資、放鬆管制刺激措施的組合，我認為這種刺激措施的組合對這些企業來說是相當有建設性的。

There are a couple of things I'd add on that just to supplement everything David said. If you look at sort of industry-wide volumes of the various categories of investment banking activities compared to say the last five years, a number of them have started to trend above the average level.

我還有幾點要補充，以完善大衛所說的內容。如果將投資銀行業務各類別的交易量與過去五年進行比較，就會發現其中許多類別的交易量已經開始高於平均值。

One that's decidedly below the averages remains the IPO business for equities. That's a lucrative business that, we have a very, long-standing leadership position in. And it's also the case that while, some of the debt activities have been trending up in terms of overall volumes, we still haven't seen enormous volumes of sponsor capital committed deals or large cap capital committed investment grade activity.

其中，股票IPO業務的表現明顯低於平均。這是一個利潤豐厚的行業，我們在這個行業擁有非常長久的領先地位。而且，雖然一些債務活動的整體規模呈上升趨勢，但我們仍然沒有看到大量的發起人資本承諾交易或大市值資本承諾的投資級活動。

So there still remains other types of transaction activity, as we progress through the cycle, that is, very strategic to clients, things that Goldman Sachs is very good at executing, that could further propel upside across the capital markets line items.

因此，隨著週期的推進，仍有其他類型的交易活動，這些活動對客戶來說具有非常重要的策略意義，也是高盛非常擅長執行的，這些活動可能會進一步推動資本市場各項目的上漲。

Great. And just the follow-up question is, I really appreciate how you laid out your internal opportunities to deploy the capital, your excess capital, which is so much, right? If you take into account the excess, your buffer and potentially the redefinition of that capital.

偉大的。還有一個後續問題是，我非常欣賞您如何闡述了您內部部署資金（尤其是您的大量剩餘資金）的機會，對吧？如果考慮到盈餘、緩衝資金以及可能對該資本的重新定義。

As we think about, a year where, you talked about the cap markets, your ability to organically generate capital is also best in class. How do we think about how that buyback fits in? Appreciate your prepared remarks if you're going to be opportunistic. You did $12 billion '26, but it seems like you have plenty of room. To meet or exceed that and check off your wish list, is that the right way to think about it?

回顧過去一年，您談到了資本市場，而您自身創造資本的能力也是一流的。我們該如何看待這次回購計畫？如果你打算投機取巧，那就好好欣賞你事先準備好的發言吧。2026年你們的業績達到了120億美元，但看起來你們還有很大的發展空間。為了達到甚至超越這個目標，並實現你的願望清單，這樣想是否正確？

Sure, Erika. So I'll quickly, give you our standard answer on the prioritization of the deployment of capital, and that remains unchanged, as David said and that's what we'll focus on first and foremost. But to get to your buyback question, given the degree of excess capital that we sit with today and our expectation that we'll continue to generate capital over the course of the next year, buybacks remain an important tool in our toolkit.

當然，艾莉卡。所以，我會快速地給出我們關於資本部署優先順序的標準答案，正如大衛所說，這一點仍然沒有改變，這也是我們首先要關注的重點。但回到你提出的回購問題，鑑於我們目前擁有的過剩資本以及我們預計在未來一年內將繼續產生資本，股票回購仍然是我們工具箱中的重要工具。

Over the long-term, you will notice that Goldman Sachs has reduced its share count, quite significantly and quite sustainably and it gives us leverage to continue to generate EPS growth. So like anyone. We are mindful of the price at which our equity is trading but we're also trying to take a strategic long-term approach to first and foremost fuel the franchise to support the client activity, but also drive returns for shareholders over multiple years. So buybacks will continue to feature as an important part of our capital deployment strategy.

從長遠來看，你會注意到高盛已經大幅且可持續地減少了其股票數量，這為我們繼續實現每股盈餘成長提供了槓桿。就像其他人一樣。我們關注公司股票的交易價格，但我們也試圖採取長期的策略方法，首先是推動公司發展以支持客戶活動，同時也要在多年內為股東帶來回報。因此，股票回購仍將是我們資本部署策略的重要組成部分。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的貝齊·格拉塞克。

Hi, good morning, just continuing on this theme, I wanted to understand a little bit about how the equities markets, revenues and the fixed income, revenues are aligned with the issuance calendar. Just wondering how much of the issuance that's going on is helping those two line items as well, or is issuance all within banking?

您好，早安。繼續這個主題，我想了解股票市場、收入和固定收益收入是如何與發行日曆相協調的。我想知道目前發行的債券中有多少也對這兩個項目有所幫助，還是說所有的債券發行都屬於銀行業範疇？

So thank you for the question, Betsy. I'm not sure I understood the very last tail end of your question but maybe I'll start off answering it and then you can redirect me. I think across our fake and equity businesses, we obviously have a very diversified portfolio of activities, both intermediation and financing, even with intermediation, diversified by asset class, by cash, derivatives and equities.

謝謝你的提問，貝齊。我不太確定我是否理解了你問題的最後一部分，但我或許可以先回答一下，然後你可以再引導我。我認為，就我們的虛假和股權業務而言，我們顯然擁有非常多元化的業務組合，包括中介和融資，即使是中介業務，也按資產類別進行了多元化，包括現金、衍生品和股票。

And I think there are contributions that the primary market activity makes to enhance the overall liquidity provision, secondary market making opportunity set. But my own view is that, we'll continue to see an increase in the overall level of capital markets activity.

我認為一級市場活動對提高整體流動性供給和二級市場做市機會做出了貢獻。但我個人認為，我們將會看到資本市場整體活動水準持續成長。

If that pulls through, as well as we hope and expect, that should capitalize incremental levels of activity across intermediation activities as investors even more dynamically work to assess their existing secondary market portfolio versus quote unquote, making room for primary, et cetera. So I think there remains opportunity in that front as we move into 2026.

如果一切順利，正如我們希望和預期的那樣，這將促進中介活動的逐步活躍，因為投資者將更積極地評估他們現有的二級市場投資組合，為一級市場等騰出空間。所以我認為，隨著我們邁入2026年，這方面仍然存在著機會。

And then you mentioned that your backlog today is the highest in four years. Maybe we could. Just ask you to unpack a little bit. There's a lot of different backlogs, so, would you mind going through what you're anticipating, getting un released into production, so to speak, as we go through '26.

然後你提到，你們目前的積壓工作量是四年來最高的。或許我們可以。就請你稍微收拾一下行李。積壓了很多不同的項目，所以，您能否介紹一下您預計哪些項目會進入生產階段，也就是在 2026 年期間？

Sure. So the way we report our backlog consistently each and every quarter. So there's no change to the way we're reporting that. It's comprised of our advisory activities, our debt underwriting, our equity underwriting. We're very deliberate in our disclosures each and every quarter to highlight if the deltas in the backlog, have particular drivers.

當然。因此，我們每季都會以一致的方式報告我們的積壓訂單情況。所以我們報道的方式沒有任何改變。它包括我們的諮詢活動、債務承銷和股權承銷。我們每個季度都會非常謹慎地披露信息，以突出積壓訂單的變化是否有特定的驅動因素。

In this particular case, we say a couple things. We say it's seventh consecutive quarter. It's the highest in four years. It's one of the highest levels ever. It is a large level of backlog and we make that point because obviously the results that we just delivered in Q4 and for full year 2025 were very strong but the indication is that not only we delivered those results but more than replenished those results. And so that is what's giving us the confidence.

就此例而言，我們有幾點要說明。我們說這是連續第七個季度。這是四年來的最高值。這是有史以​​來最高的級別之一。積壓訂單量很大，我們之所以強調這一點，是因為顯然我們在第四季度和 2025 年全年公佈的業績非常強勁，但跡象表明，我們不僅實現了這些業績，而且還超額完成了這些業績。這就是我們信心的來源。

And then all of David's comments that he made with respect to the flywheel and the catalyzing of activity. Because the growth in the backlog is driven by advisory, we're also trying to give our investors the sense that that could in turn drive other pieces of activity across the firm, other types of activity that doesn't get registered in backlog and doesn't lend itself to that type of reporting metric. So that's sort of our orientation and that's what I would offer up to help you get, the insight on why we're putting that out there and highlighting it.

然後是大衛就飛輪和催化活動所做的所有評論。由於積壓訂單的成長是由顧問業務推動的，我們也試圖讓投資人感受到，這反過來可能會推動公司其他方面的活動，這些活動不會計入積壓訂單，也不適合用這種類型的報告指標來衡量。所以這就是我們的方向，也是我想要提供的，希望能幫助大家了解我們為什麼要發布和強調這些內容。

Brennan Hawken, BMO.

Brennan Hawken，BMO。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, that sort of great timing on the Apple card deal. Like having that announced the week before we get the tweet on the limits, I mean. I couldn't help but chuckle about that.

早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，蘋果信用卡優惠活動的時機真是太好了。我的意思是，就像在發布限制措施推文的前一周就宣布了這件事一樣。我忍不住笑了起來。

I'd love to hear about, obviously you've got a long, pathway to close 24 months and then it closes, but could you help us maybe understand the right way we should be thinking about like platforms run rate after it. And then whether or not there's any operating expenses given this is your last card exit that that might be running off and what are the plans for the deposits the apple deposits that may not have been reflected in the announcement.

我很想聽聽，顯然你們還有很長的路要走，需要 24 個月才能完成，然後才會關閉，但是你們能否幫助我們理解，我們應該如何正確地思考平台關閉後的運行率之類的問題？此外，還要考慮這是您最後一張卡的退出，是否存在任何營運費用，以及蘋果存款的計劃，這些計劃可能沒有反映在公告中。

Sure. Hi, Brendan, thank you. Thank you for the question. Thank you for the observation. The same thing occurred to us. So thinking about platform solutions on the forward, it's really comprised, the vast majority of it is the apple card business and the savings program. The loans are now obviously in a fair value, standpoint from an accounting perspective, so they're mark to market. The performance contributors will obviously be, NII, charge-offs, operating expenses, et cetera.

當然。嗨，布倫丹，謝謝你。謝謝你的提問。謝謝你的提醒。我們也想到了這一點。因此，展望未來，平台解決方案實際上主要由蘋果信用卡業務和儲蓄計劃所構成。從會計角度來看，這些貸款現在顯然是以公允價值計價的，因此它們是按市值計價的。影響績效的因素顯然包括淨利息收入、沖銷、營運費用等。

I think we'd observed from a seasonality perspective and across the balance of the year perspective, the same dynamo. Dynamics we've observed over the last couple of years with the portfolio where the first quarter is typically stronger in terms of reflecting, paydown of balances and things like that, which then, generally speaking, grow over the balance of the year. When you put that all together, our expectation is we'll have a small, pre-tax loss, for the year in the segment but nothing that's material for Goldman Sachs.

我認為，從季節性角度和全年其他時間角度來看，我們都觀察到了相同的動力。過去幾年我們觀察到的投資組合動態是，第一季通常表現得更強，反映出餘額的減少等等，然後，一般來說，餘額會在一年中的剩餘時間裡增長。綜合所有因素來看，我們預期該業務部門今年將出現少量稅前虧損，但這對高盛而言並無實質影響。

You asked also Brennan about, you asked also about savings. I just wanted to comment on this. Yeah, so there currently is no agreement to transition the savings program. We're going to continue to service and maintain, our existing Apple savings customers and we're going to continue to offer them high yield savings account, as Apple card users. And users should expect that this service will be seamless. It'll be uninterrupted, and they'll continue to earn the same competitive rate they've been getting on the savings, and it's attractive to us.

你還問了布倫南關於儲蓄的問題。我只是想就此發表一下看法。是的，目前還沒有就過渡儲蓄計畫達成任何協議。我們將繼續為現有的 Apple 儲蓄客戶提供服務和維護，並將繼續為他們（作為 Apple 卡用戶）提供高收益儲蓄帳戶。用戶可以期待這項服務將流暢無阻。這項服務不會中斷，他們將繼續獲得與以往一樣具有競爭力的儲蓄利率，這對我們來說很有吸引力。

Obviously we are very focused on the transition of the card and there's a lot of work to do over the next 24 months, the transition of the card, but at some point in the future, we will expect to have additional conversations about the future of Apple savings.

顯然，我們非常關注這張卡的過渡，在接下來的 24 個月裡，我們將有很多工作要做，那就是這張卡的過渡。但在未來的某個時候，我們預計會就 Apple 儲蓄的未來進行更多討論。

As we've mentioned, our deposits are diversified in tenor and channel and that remains true even if we excluded Apple savings deposit. They're just a small fraction of the deposits but at this point there have been no discussions about the savings plan.

正如我們之前提到的，我們的存款在期限和管道上是多元化的，即使排除蘋果儲蓄存款，情況依然如此。雖然這筆錢只佔存款的一小部分，但目前還沒有人討論過儲蓄計畫。

Got it. Thank for that, David, and Dennis. I -- for my follow-up, so one of the sort of debate points this morning, with investors was on the efficiency ratio and how things looked year over year. Now, of course, you have to adjust for the revenue impact of the Apple Card announcement, but I, and I might be doing the math wrong, but, so correct me if that's the case, but when I do make that adjustment, it looks like there's a negative year to year impact on the efficiency ratio.

知道了。謝謝你們，大衛和丹尼斯。我——我的後續問題是，今天早上與投資者討論的重點之一是效率比率以及與去年同期相比情況如何。當然，現在你必須考慮到 Apple Card 發布帶來的收入影響，但我，我可能算錯了，如果真是這樣請糾正我，但當我做出調整後，效率比率似乎出現了同比的負面影響。

Like it was the efficiency ratio was stronger last fourth quarter versus this fourth quarter. Is my math right? And if so could you speak to maybe what some of the factors were that prevented greater operating leverage and how we should think about operating leverage going forward?

似乎去年第四季的效率比率比今年第四季更高。我的計算對嗎？如果是這樣的話，您能否談談阻礙更大經營槓桿的一些因素，以及我們未來該如何看待經營槓桿？

Sure, Brennan, I'll start with that. So first, thank you for observing correctly that the efficiency ratio is one of those places where based on the accounting for the apple car transition. It goes in the opposite direction versus our intention and the trajectory that we've been on.

當然，布倫南，我就從那件事開始。首先，感謝您正確地觀察到效率比率是需要考慮蘋果汽車轉型因素的地方之一。它朝著與我們的意圖和我們一直以來所走的方向相反的方向發展。

So that does explain why it's going in that direction based on the reduction to revenues. But you need to look at the efficiency ratio on a full year basis. There have been some other things I've seen where people are looking at quarter year-over-year fourth quarter operating expenses or efficiency. Given the way that we manage compensation and non-compensation expenses over the course of a full year, you need to look at that sort of in totality.

所以，這就能解釋為什麼它會朝著那個方向發展，因為收入減少了。但你需要從全年的角度來看效率比率。我還看到一些人在關注第四季度同比營運費用或效率。鑑於我們全年對薪酬和非薪酬支出的管理方式，你需要從整體上看待這個問題。

And in this particular. When you do that, for the year over year, fourth quarter look in this particular year, it looks like you have, a significant increase in operating expenses. But when you step back and look at the full year performance, it's very clear that the firm delivered significant operating leverage. Obviously, we have reported revs at 9%, we have pre-tax at +19%, and we have EPS at 27%. And so you have to sort of step back take account of the provision release, and look at the full year results.

而在這個特殊情況下。當你這樣做時，從同比角度來看，尤其是今年的第四季度，你會發現營運費用大幅增加。但當你回顧全年業績時，你會很清楚地看到該公司實現了顯著的營運槓桿效應。顯然，我們公佈的營收為 9%，稅前利潤為 +19%，每股盈餘為 27%。因此，你必須退後一步，考慮撥備釋放，並查看全年業績。

The fourth quarter year-over-year, the only thing I'd had the fourth quarter year over year was affected by the way we accrued comp last year and the way we accrued comp this year and the revenues in the quarter. And so it's -- you can't look at the fourth quarter year-over-year to Denis's point, you have to look at the year.

第四季年比來看，我唯一能確定的是，第四季年比數據受到去年和今年薪資提列方式以及該季度營收的影響。所以——正如丹尼斯所說，你不能只看第四季同比數據，而必須看全年數據。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國證券。

Hi, I guess it's an exciting time. This is a new era for Goldman Sachs 3.0. And you're redesigning the whole firm around AI. So that could be very exciting, but I'm looking for the output that you're looking for from this. I know it's early days, but whenever I ask about AI, it's always answers at a 10,000 foot level like it's transformational, it's a game changer, it's a superpower.

嗨，我想現在應該是個令人興奮的時刻。這是高盛3.0的新時代。你們正在圍繞人工智慧重新設計整個公司。所以這可能會非常令人興奮，但我想要的是你期望得到的結果。我知道現在還處於早期階段，但每當我問起人工智慧時，得到的答案總是停留在宏觀層面，例如它具有變革性、改變遊戲規則、擁有超能力。

We all get that. But what are you hoping to achieve? So like this decade, your revenues are up 2/3, your head count's up 1/4. So that's one way maybe you could frame the output that you like to achieve but how much more in revenues, how much more inefficiency? Just can you put some meat on the bones? Thank you.

我們都明白這一點。但你希望達到什麼目的？所以和過去十年一樣，你的收入增加了三分之二，員工人數增加了四分之一。所以，這或許是你可以用來描述你想要達到的產出的方法，但是收入要增加多少，效率要降低多少呢？能不能給骨頭上點肉？謝謝。

I appreciate the question, Mike, and I appreciate the way you frame it, and I understand why there's a strong desire to get more from us. And what I promise you is you're going to get more, over time as we're in a position to give you metrics, to give you targets, and to really explain it.

麥克，我很欣賞你的提問方式，也理解為什麼他們如此渴望從我們身上得到更多。我向你保證，隨著時間的推移，當我們能夠為你提供指標、設定目標並真正解釋清楚時，你會得到更多。

I want to step back at a high level. Just the one thing that I'd say, and I'd frame it slightly differently than you'd frame it. This is not a new era for Goldman Sachs 1GS 3.0. We're not going to transform the whole firm with AI. We are focused on our two core businesses, driving growth in our two core businesses and both, I think we're incredibly well positioned and positioned to win.

我想退居幕後，保持高水準。我只想說一件事，但我表達的方式可能和你略有不同。這並非高盛1GS 3.0的新時代。我們不會用人工智慧徹底改造整個公司。我們專注於兩大核心業務，推動兩大核心業務的成長，我認為我們目前都處於非常有利的地位，並且有能力取得成功。

AI and this technology is an opportunity for us to drive productivity and efficiency in the organization, and we are very focused on it, because it will add to our capacity to invest in growth in the business. At a high level, and I think I've talked about this a little bit before, there are two things that I would focus on. One, we have very smart, very productive people, and you can give them these models, these tools, these applications, you can put them in their hands, and they're very good at playing with them and figuring out how on a day to day basis.

人工智慧和這項技術為我們提供了一個提高組織生產力和效率的機會，我們非常重視它，因為它將增強我們投資於業務成長的能力。從宏觀層面來說（我想我之前也稍微談到過這一點），有兩件事我會重點關注。第一，我們擁有非常聰明、非常有效率的人才，你可以把這些模型、這些工具、這些應用程式交給他們，他們非常擅長使用它們，並且每天都能弄清楚如何使用它們。

They can use these tools to make themselves more productive, to do more, to affect our clients more, and we're pretty good at that. We put technology in their hands for decades. They're pretty good at taking that technology and figuring out how to use it and that is going on and there is progress in that.

他們可以利用這些工具來提高自己的工作效率，做更多的事，對我們的客戶產生更大的影響，而我們在這方面做得相當不錯。幾十年來，我們一直把科技交到他們手中。他們很擅長運用這項技術，並且正在朝著正確的方向發展，這方面也取得了進展。

The thing you're talking about is our ability to really in the enterprise deploy the technology to reimagine operating processes and create real efficiency and we think there is an ability to do that on a basis that would be meaningful and significant for Goldman Sachs. It's not just to take cost out, but it's also to free up capacity to invest in other areas where we see growth opportunities that we've been a little bit constrained.

你所說的，是我們能否真正將科技應用於企業，重新構想營運流程，創造真正的效率。我們認為，我們有能力做到這一點，這對高盛來說意義重大。這不僅是為了降低成本，也是為了釋放產能，以便投資我們看到成長機會但一直受到一些限制的其他領域。

I talked about wealth management because somebody asked a question and our desire to put more feet on the ground to broaden our footprint and our platform, we would like to do more of that this year than we're doing, but we're constrained because we're also trying to balance and deliver returns.

我談到財富管理是因為有人問了這個問題，我們希望投入更多人力來擴大我們的業務範圍和平台，我們希望今年能在這方面做得更多，但我們受到限制，因為我們還要努力平衡並實現回報。

If we can remake processes and create more operating efficiency and flexibility, that will free up more capacity from an efficiency perspective to invest in these growth areas. To change operating processes in the firm and we've identified six specific processes that we're attacking takes an enormous amount of work to bring people along. We started doing this in the fall. We're making good progress.

如果我們能夠改善流程，提高營運效率和靈活性，從效率的角度來看，這將釋放出更多產能，用於投資這些成長領域。要改變公司的營運流程，我們已經確定了六個具體的流程需要著手改進，這需要付出巨大的努力才能讓人們接受這些流程。我們從秋天開始做這件事。我們進展順利。

To be honest, I had hoped to give a little bit more transparency at this earnings call, but we don't have the full confidence to put information out publicly but we are committed to giving you more over the course of the next quarters so you can track with us the efficiency progress and how we're deploying that progress into the business. And so we'll continue to keep you posted as we do it, but I think it's meaningful, but for the moment it's focused on six distinct processes.

坦白說，我原本希望在這次財報電話會議上提高透明度，但我們目前還沒有完全的信心公開這些信息，不過我們承諾在接下來的幾個季度裡會提供更多信息，以便大家可以和我們一起跟踪效率提升的進展以及我們如何將這些進展應用到業務中。因此，我們會繼續向您報告進展情況，但我認為這很有意義，不過目前它主要集中在六個不同的流程上。

And just as one follow-up if we were to look at one metric. For progress five years from now, would that be like revenues per employee? Would that be efficiency? What would it be headcount or how do you think about that?

如果要看一個指標，那就再補充一點。五年後的發展，是否類似人均所得？那算是效率嗎？你覺得需要多少人手？或者你對此有什麼想法？

Well, if you look out five years from now, I think this technology, and I think this has to be put in the lens of a journey. That a firm like ours has been on for decades. I mean, I joined Goldman Sachs in 1999, and on a revenue per employee basis, I mean, you pointed out a revenue per employee metric over the last five years. You go back and you look 25 years, the same thing.

嗯，展望五年後，我認為這項技術，我認為應該把它放在一個發展歷程的角度來看待。像我們這樣的公司已經經營了幾十年了。我的意思是，我於 1999 年加入高盛，就員工人均收入而言，我的意思是，你指出了過去五年的員工人均收入指標。你回頭看看25年前，情況還是一樣。

We continue, our people continue to get more productive. I think this technology and the work we can do in 1GS 3.0 creates an ability for us in the next five years to accelerate the pace of that once again. And so that is a metric, but I don't think the only metric.

我們不斷進步，我們的員工也不斷提高生產力。我認為這項技術以及我們在 1GS 3.0 中能夠進行的工作，使我們能夠在未來五年內再次加快這一進程。所以這是一個衡量標準，但我認為這不是唯一的衡量標準。

Steven Chubak, Wolf Research.

Steven Chubak，狼研究公司。

So David, there have been a number of significant developments in the area of market structure, whether it's tokenization, the recent expansion of prediction markets, you guys are always quite front footed when it comes to innovation and was hoping you could speak to how you're evaluating some of these emerging opportunities within the market structure tokenization landscape. Where do you see the most compelling opportunities for Goldman and how are you positioning the firm to participate in a more meaningful way?

大衛，市場結構領域已經出現了一些重大發展，無論是代幣化，還是預測市場的近期擴張，你們在創新方面總是走在前列，我希望你能談談你們是如何評估市場結構代幣化領域中一些新興機遇的。您認為高盛最具吸引力的機會在哪裡？您如何定位公司以更有意義的方式參與其中？

Yeah, so I appreciate the question, Steven. First, I'll start. I mean, you mentioned two things and the both things that we have an enormous number of people in the firm, extremely focused on. Tokenization, stable coins, obviously there's a lot going on in Washington right now with the Clarity Act.

是的，我很感謝你的提問，史蒂文。首先，我先來。我的意思是，你提到了兩件事，而這兩件事正是我們公司有大量人員極為重視的。代幣化、穩定幣，顯然，華盛頓目前正在進行大量的相關工作，例如《清晰法案》。

I was actually in Washington on Tuesday, speaking to people about things that we think are important. To us in the context of the framing of that, obviously that bill, based on the news over the last 24 hours is a long way to go. Before that bill is going to progress but I do think these innovations are important. I don't think we have to be the leader, but it would not surprise you that we have a big team of people spending a lot of time with senior leadership and doing a lot of work.

週二我其實在華盛頓，和人們談論我們認為重要的事情。就我們目前所處的脈絡而言，根據過去 24 小時的新聞報道，顯然這項法案還有很長的路要走。在那項法案獲得通過之前，我確實認為這些創新很重要。我認為我們不必成為領導者，但我們有一個龐大的團隊，他們花很多時間與高層領導者一起工作，做了很多工作，這應該不會讓你感到驚訝。

So that we can clearly decide where we're investing and playing and how those technologies can expand or accelerate a variety of our existing businesses and where there are new business opportunities candidly around those technologies.

這樣我們就可以清楚地決定我們在哪些領域進行投資和發展，以及這些技術如何擴展或加速我們現有的各種業務，並坦率地了解圍繞這些技術有哪些新的商機。

I think the prediction markets are also super interesting. I've personally met with the two big prediction companies and their leadership in the last two weeks and spent a couple of hours with each, to learn more about that.

我覺得預測市場也超有趣。在過去的兩個星期裡，我親自會見了這兩家大型預測公司及其領導層，並與每家公司分別進行了幾個小時的會面，以了解更多相關資訊。

We have a team of people here that are spending time with the -- and are looking at it, when you think about some of these activities, particularly when you look at some of the ones that are CFTC, regulated they look like derivative contract activities and so I can certainly see opportunities where these cross into our business and we're very focused on understanding that, understanding the regulatory structure that's going to develop around that, see where there are opportunities for us to have capabilities or to partner to serve our clients around these.

我們這裡有一個團隊，他們正在花時間研究這些活動，特別是那些受美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）監管的活動，它們看起來像是衍生性合約活動。因此，我當然可以看到這些活動與我們業務交叉的機會，我們非常專注於了解這些活動，了解圍繞這些活動將要形成的監管結構，看看我們有哪些機會可以具備相關能力或透過合作為客戶提供服務。

I think it's early on both. I think sometimes the -- I think there's a lot of reason to be excited and interested in these things but the pace of change might not be as quick as quick and as immediate as some of the pundits are talking about in both of these, but I think they're important real and we're spending a lot of time.

我認為現在兩個階段都還處於早期。我覺得有時候——我覺得有很多理由讓我們對這些事情感到興奮和感興趣，但變化的速度可能不會像一些評論員在這兩方面所說的那樣快、那麼直接，但我認為它們是重要的現實，我們正在投入大量時間。

No, thanks for all that color, David. And just a quick follow-up on the financing opportunity. If I think back, five plus years ago ahead of the 2020 investor day, when you first started talking about the financing opportunity, you noted it was less than 20% of Goldman's trading revenue. It was 40% that some of your larger money center peers and that you were planning to narrow that GAAP. And if I fast forward to today. You're now approaching that 40% threshold.

不，謝謝你帶來的繽紛色彩，大衛。關於融資機會，我再簡單跟進。回想起五年前，在 2020 年投資人日之前，你第一次開始談論融資機會時，你指出這還不到高盛交易收入的 20%。你們一些規模較大的金融中心同業的這一比例為 40%，而且你們正計劃縮小這一 GAAP 範圍。如果我快轉到今天。你現在已經接近 40% 的門檻了。

And I was hoping to get your thoughts on how large you think that financing piece can grow over time and your approach to also managing risk against any potential drawdown or deleveraging events within that business.

我希望了解您對融資部分未來可能增長到多大的規模的看法，以及您如何管理風險以應對該業務中任何潛在的資金撤回或去槓桿化事件。

Yeah, no, it's a very good question, Steven, and you're focused on the right thing and so are we. I mean, I think what I would say is over the last five years we've gone, from being underweighted given our market footprint and our market shares and our wallet shares to being more closely weighted. I think we've got a little bit room, but it wouldn't surprise you in the formation of the Capital Solutions Group and thinking about the connection.

是的，史蒂文，你問得非常好，你關注的重點很正確，我們也是。我的意思是，我認為在過去的五年裡，我們已經從市場規模、市場份額和客戶錢包份額不足，轉變為更緊密地結合了這些因素。我認為我們還有些空間，但組建資本解決方案集團並考慮其中的聯繫，這應該不會讓你感到驚訝。

Activity between our asset management business and our origination capabilities, we see the potential to basically put a lot of this activity over time into our asset management business and allow our clients to have access, to these origination flows and so we're very conscious from a risk management perspective we see opportunities to continue to serve our clients, but because of our asset management business, we have the ability to grow this, and not all of it has to be on balance sheet in the same way. And so we're keenly focused on the evolution of that in the coming years, and that's something you'll hear us talk more about.

鑑於我們的資產管理業務和貸款發放能力之間的互動，我們看到了將許多此類活動逐步轉移到我們的資產管理業務的潛力，並讓我們的客戶能夠獲得這些貸款發放管道。因此，從風險管理的角度來看，我們非常清楚，我們有機會繼續為客戶提供服務，但由於我們的資產管理業務，我們有能力發展這項業務，而且並非所有業務都必須以相同的方式體現在資產負債表上。因此，我們將密切關注未來幾年的發展，這也是我們將要更多地談論的話題。

Dan Fannon, Jeffries.

丹‧範農，傑弗里斯。

Thanks. Good morning. Another one just on expenses and really non-com and when you know all you've been doing with the GS 3.0. I was curious as you start 2026, how does the growth for non-com look versus maybe 2025 in the budgeting process and maybe what's different in terms of some of those metrics.

謝謝。早安.另一個問題是關於支出，特別是與非公司支出相關的，以及您使用 GS 3.0 所做的一切。我很好奇，在 2026 年初，與 2025 年相比，非公司支出在預算編制過程中的成長如何，以及在某些指標方面有哪些不同。

So I appreciate the question. You've heard us say, over many years, we maintain a rigorous focus on managing these expenses as tightly as we possibly can. There are a lot of them, certainly by dollar quantum that are very linked with the overall level of activity inside of the firm. Notably, transaction-based expenses. And also to an extent some of the market development expenses.

我很感謝你的提問。多年來，我們一直強調要嚴格控制這些開支，這大家應該都聽我們說過。這類項目有很多，尤其是以美元金額計算的，它們與公司內部的整體活動水準密切相關。值得注意的是，交易費用。也包括部分市場開發費用。

We're at a point in the cycle where as an example, it's more important to feed some T&E capacity into the firm to get people front-footed and meeting face to face with clients than it is to overly constrain that expenditure. Transaction based similarly as we continue to grow these activities, there are necessarily transaction based expenses that go alongside those.

我們現在所處的週期階段，舉例來說，比起過度限制差旅支出，更重要的是為公司提供一些差旅資源，讓員工能夠主動出擊，與客戶面對面交流。類似地，隨著我們不斷發展這些業務，必然會產生相應的交易費用。

On the other side of the equation, there are those types of expenses over which we have more control, and we have a very concerted effort to constrain the growth of fees which may be inflation linked or may be substitutes for other types of work and we're focused on sort of grinding those down as much as we possibly can.

另一方面，有些類型的支出我們能夠更好地控制，我們正在齊心協力地限制與通貨膨脹掛鉤或替代其他類型工作的費用增長，我們正集中精力盡可能地降低這些費用。

Thanks. And as a follow-up for the private banking and lending. I was hoping to get an updated outlook as you think about 2026 and a backdrop where rates are coming down. How you're thinking about the offsets of revenue from both demand and deposits.

謝謝。隨後將跟進私人銀行和貸款業務。我希望了解您對 2026 年的最新展望，以及在利率下降的大背景下的情況。您是如何考慮需求和存款收入相互抵消的問題的？

Sure. So there we've obviously been quite deliberate trying to, make sure you have all the pieces of the puzzle as we head into 2026. We've dealt with some of the sequential comparisons in that line item based on the one particular loan that had been previously impaired and then we had exceptional levels of revenue.

當然。所以，我們顯然一直在有意識地努力，確保在邁向 2026 年之際，你們擁有所有拼圖碎片。我們已經處理了該專案中的一些連續比較，這些比較是基於先前發生減損的特定貸款，然後我們獲得了異常高的收入水準。

I want to understand that as a comparison that that frankly will still be relevant as we head into 2026. Our focus is continuing to grow lending activities and the lending penetration. We made good progress there. That's a piece of unlocking incremental growth in the wealth channel remains very important to clients.

我想了解的是，這種比較在2026年仍然具有現實意義。我們的重點是繼續擴大貸款業務和提高貸款滲透率。我們在那裡取得了良好進展。對於客戶而言，在財富管道中實現漸進式成長仍然非常重要。

We'll expect to grow lending. We'll focus on growing our overall level of deposit activity, across the segment, but we do expect there to be some nim compression given our expectations on the rate cycle and so we just want to flag that as an expectation as we head to 2026.

我們預計貸款業務將有所成長。我們將專注於提升整個業務板塊的存款活動水平，但鑑於我們對利率週期的預期，我們預計會出現一些淨額壓縮，因此我們想在此強調，這是我們展望 2026 年時的一個預期。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning. I was hoping to follow-up on the 5% long-term asset flow target within wealth. You're slightly above us in 4Q and just want to get more color in terms of how you arrived at that and maybe framing how much is doing more with existing advisors and customers versus the efforts that you have to hire more advisors and presumably attract new customers.

早安.我希望能夠跟進財富管理中 5% 的長期資產流動目標。你們在第四季度略高於我們，我想更詳細地了解一下你們是如何得出這個結果的，以及你們在多大程度上依賴於現有顧問和客戶，又在多大程度上依賴於招募更多顧問和吸引新客戶。

So. Look, we think, wealth is a big opportunity for the firm. We have a very strong business at the moment. We think there's a good opportunity to grow it, and we are making extra efforts to drive accountability and focus on our execution against that opportunity set.

所以。我們認為，財富對公司來說是一個巨大的機會。我們目前的業務非常強勁。我們認為這是一個很好的發展機會，我們正在加倍努力，以加強問責制，並專注於抓住這些機會並有效執行。

And so this is an external target that we expect you all to hold us to account and we also think it's an important signal to send to all of our people in terms of how laser focused we are on this opportunity set as you said, we have a track record of delivering this type of annual growth.

因此，這是一個外在目標，我們希望大家監督我們，我們也認為這是一個重要的訊號，可以向我們所有的員工表明，我們是多麼專注於這個機會。正如你所說，我們有實現這種年度成長的記錄。

So we want to maintain the focus. That is one component of the overall sort of revenue equation and opportunity set in wealth management, but it's an effort for us to just apply incremental amounts of granular focus. This is one of the key underpinnings to the overall revenue trajectory in the wealth business.

所以我們希望保持專注。這是財富管理整體收入等式和機會集的一個組成部分，但對我們來說，需要逐步增加細緻的關注。這是財富管理業務整體收入成長的關鍵支撐因素之一。

And any color you want to provide in terms of you talked about billing advisors you've got some plans this year, you said, you'd like to do more, but you're mindful of kind of managing the profitability just any way of framing, whether it's your plan this year or this kind of longer-term, where you're at now and where you'd like to be on the number of advisors.

至於您想提供的任何信息，例如您談到了收費顧問，您今年有一些計劃，您說您想做得更多，但您也注意控制盈利能力，無論從哪個角度來看，無論是您今年的計劃還是這種長期計劃，您目前的狀況以及您希望在顧問數量方面達到的水平。

I think the best way, Matt, I think the best way to frame it, this is a very fragmented business. My guess is an ultra-high net worth. Our share in the United States, for example is somewhere mid-single-digits, and that's probably leading share.

馬特，我認為最好的解釋方式是，這是一個非常分散的行業。我猜他身價極高。例如，我們在美國市場的份額大約在個位數中段，而且這可能是領先的份額了。

So you think about there are hundreds and hundreds of firms and people that do this in a variety of ways. So with our franchise and our platform. I said before early in the call, it scales with people. There is lots of ability to still grow market share in this business if you've got a leading franchise. Adding advisors, adding footprint, broadening the clients that we touch and so we think we've got good trajectory to do that. And there's a real focus on that.

所以你會想到，有成百上千的公司和個人以各種方式從事這項工作。所以，憑藉我們的特許經營權和平台。我之前在通話開始時就說過，它是隨著人數增加而擴展的。如果你擁有領先的特許經營權，那麼在這個行業中仍然有很大的市場份額成長空間。增加顧問、擴大業務範圍、拓展客戶群，我們認為我們有良好的發展前景來實現這一目標。而且，這一點確實備受關注。

And I'd add to it, alt is a component of it. We put out specific targets around, sort of alts opportunity set. And while we obviously have penetration of alts within our clients given that the average wealth of a client on our platform is north of [75 million]. It's not only appropriate, but -- you can advise a distribution of exposure to alternatives and there's still probably opportunity, to grow that with our clients.

我還要補充一點，alt 也是其中的一個組成部分。我們設定了一些具體的目標，類似於另類機會集。顯然，鑑於我們平台上客戶的平均財富超過…，我們的客戶群中已經存在大量另類投資。[7500萬]。這不僅是合適的，而且——您可以建議分散投資於另類投資，而且可能還有機會與我們的客戶一起擴大這種投資規模。

So in addition to the footprint, the advisors, the mix of their activities, lending remains an opportunity there, and we do as we've mentioned. We see more opportunities to enhance our technology investment, the digital experience for those clients and ensure that we're, very well positioned with existing clients and their successors.

因此，除了業務範圍、顧問、業務組合之外，貸款仍然是一個機會，而我們也正如我們之前提到的那樣開展業務。我們看到了更多機會來加強我們的技術投資，提升客戶的數位體驗，並確保我們與現有客戶及其後續客戶保持良好的合作關係。

Gerard Cassidy., RBC Capital.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Good morning, Denis. Good morning, David. Can you guys share with us, in the past David you talked about the IPO market and the sponsors maybe not getting the evaluations that they would like as being one of the areas that had to loosen up and it appears like it is but when you look at.

早安，丹尼斯。早安，大衛。你們能跟我們分享一下嗎？ David，你之前談到過IPO市場，以及發起人可能沒有得到他們想要的評估，這是需要放鬆管制的領域之一，看起來確實如此，但當你仔細觀察時…

To this year and I think Denis you touched on it in your remarks that we still below we're IPO business is still below the long-term averages. Is it market conditions do you think will be a greater influence on the IPO market this year or is it still the evaluation challenge that you've referenced in the past?

今年，正如丹尼斯在你的演講中提到的，我們的IPO業務仍然低於長期平均水平。您認為今年對IPO市場影響更大的因素是市場狀況，還是您過去提到的估價挑戰？

I don't think you've got the valuation challenge we've referenced. I think you're going to see a bunch of the sponsors stuff unlocked and you're going to see more activity, from sponsors. I also think one of the dynamics that we have, and it's just the reality of market structure and the way the world's evolved, companies are staying private longer, and we've got a lot of big companies in the pipe that I think just for a variety of reasons are reaching a moment in time where they're saying what, it's time to go. And I think you're also this year going to see a bunch of IPOs, this year and next year are very large companies, which is something we really haven't seen a lot of.

我認為你還沒有遇到我們提到的估值難題。我認為你會看到很多贊助商的內容被解鎖，你會看到贊助商們更加活躍。我認為，我們所面臨的一個動態是，市場結構的現實以及世界的發展方式，那就是公司保持私有狀態的時間越來越長，而且我們有很多大型公司正在籌備上市，我認為由於各種原因，它們正到了一個關鍵時刻，它們會說，是時候離開了。而且我認為今年你還會看到很多IPO，今年和明年都是規模非常大的公司，這是我們以前很少看到的。

So combination of sponsor momentum and more of the big companies that have stayed private longer are now turning toward the public markets and I think the confluence of that's going to be constructive, provided we have the kind of market environment we have now.

因此，贊助商的積極性以及更多長期保持私有狀態的大公司現在轉向公開市場，我認為，只要我們擁有現在這樣的市場環境，這種匯合將會是建設性的。

Right, okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And second, and not to really get political on this question, but it seems like the M&A activity, as you guys, so do so well and as your peers in 2025, it seems like this administration is more supportive of consolidation and maybe the prior administration.

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。其次，我不想在這個問題上真正涉及政治，但就併購活動而言，正如你們在 2025 年所表現出的出色表現以及你們的同行所展現的那樣，本屆政府似乎比上一屆政府更支持整合。

When you talk to executives about transactions, are they more focused on just the economic outlook and the opportunities there or does the regulation also factor into their thinking that the window is open now and they really need to move possibly before the change in administration in 2029?

當你和企業主管談論交易時，他們是更關注經濟前景和其中的機遇，還是監管因素也會影響他們的想法，認為機會之窗已經打開，他們真的需要在2029年政府換屆之前採取行動？

Yeah, sure, Gerard. I think a way to frame it, you framed it effectively. We had a very different environment from a regulatory perspective for M&A for the last four years and that doesn't mean that it's just a blank check. No regulatory oversight of large scale consolidation, but CEOs definitely believe that the art of the deal and scaled consolidation is possible now. And when CEOs see that opportunity because scale matters so much in business.

當然可以，傑拉德。我認為你表達得非常到位。從監管角度來看，過去四年併購環境與現在截然不同，但這並不意味著併購就可以隨意進行。雖然沒有針對大規模併購的監管，但執行長們堅信，如今達成交易和實現規模化併購已成為可能。當CEO們看到這個機會時，因為規模在商業中至關重要。

Business is so competitive, CEOs get very front-footed. And so I think CEOs and Boards are looking and saying, okay, we've got a window here of a handful of years where the opportunity to consider big strategic transformative things is certainly possible and therefore you've got a much more front foot forward, a cross-try group of CEOs really thinking about, is there something we should do? Is there something we should dream about that really advances our competitive position, and that's leading to -- you see that filtering into our backlog, but I think that's leading to a significant upswing in activity, provided we don't have, some sort of an exogenous event that that changes the current sentiment that we now have.

商業競爭如此激烈，CEO們都採取了非常積極的策略。因此，我認為執行長和董事會都在審視並表示，好吧，我們現在有幾年的時間窗口，有機會考慮重大的策略變革，因此，我們更加積極主動，來自不同領域的執行長們都在認真思考，我們是否應該做些什麼。有沒有什麼值得我們憧憬的事情，能夠真正提升我們的競爭地位，並最終——你可以看到它滲透到我們的積壓訂單中——我認為這將導致業務活動顯著增長，前提是沒有某種外生事件改變我們目前的這種情緒。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Great, good morning. A lot of discussion on the capital impact from [dereg]. I think in your earlier remarks you talked about expenses. I'm wondering if you could quantify that, potential pool of money that could be freed up and redeployed, I guess how much of a drag has it been?

太好了，早安。關於資本影響的討論很多[取消註冊]。我認為你之前發言時談到了費用問題。我想知道您能否量化一下，這筆潛在的、可以釋放並重新部署的資金池，以及它究竟造成了多大的阻礙？

I appreciate the question. I'll follow on, David's comments. I mean, I don't think we're going to give you an exact number, but you can imagine that there are a variety of, call it different, human capital consulting professional fee type surge experiences that have been observable across the industry over the last couple of years.

感謝您的提問。我接著David的評論。我的意思是，我們恐怕無法給出確切的數字，但你可以想像，在過去幾年裡，整個行業都出現了各種各樣的人力資本諮詢專業費用激增的情況。

And while there will always be work to be done and each and every institution has a responsibility to still govern and run itself in line with regulatory expectations. The current levels of engagement and focus are on the safety and soundness of the banking system.

雖然總是會有工作要做，而且每個機構都有責任按照監管要求進行自我管理和運作。目前各方關注的重點是銀行體系的安全性和穩健性。

And there's just a different formulation and mix of expenses required to ensure that most important goal of safety and soundness, and it therefore frees up capacity from some of the secondary or tertiary activities which can then be redeployed to driving growth across the franchise and actually, frankly, strengthening the safety of the soundness of the firm in another respect. So I think I wouldn't look at it as much of a bottom line unlock as much as an opportunity to redeploy towards helping to grow the firm and actually improve its resiliency.

因此，為了確保安全穩健這一最重要的目標，需要採用不同的費用構成和組合，從而釋放出一些次要或輔助性活動的產能，這些產能可以重新部署到推動整個特許經營業務的增長上，並且坦率地說，實際上從另一個方面加強了公司的穩健性。所以我認為，與其說是提高利潤，不如說是重新部署資源以幫助公司發展並真正提高其韌性的機會。

Yeah, the only thing I'd add, Chris, to what Denis said just to get a little bit more, we're not going to be able to quantify for you, but the things that you should look at. Obviously if you go back over the last 10 years, capital in the large banks has grown meaningfully over the last 10 years.

是的，克里斯，我唯一要補充的是，在丹尼斯所說的基礎上，為了讓你更全面地了解一些我們無法量化的事情，但你應該注意以下幾點。顯然，回顧過去 10 年，大型銀行的資本在過去 10 年裡有了顯著成長。

And now, it's actually -- it's -- the growth has certainly stopped, and because one of the big things that drove the capital growth was the stress capital buffers for all the firms and the CCAR process, which was very opaque, and there's now going to be more transparency around the models and the CCAR process, I think you're getting a different result there.

而現在，成長實際上已經停止了，因為推動資本成長的一大因素是所有公司的壓力資本緩衝和CCAR流程，而CCAR流程非常不透明，現在模型和CCAR流程將更加透明，我認為結果會有所不同。

So one piece of the quantification comes from doing the analysis to look at how SCBs change from kind of 20. The late part of the last decade up to 2025 and where they are now and how they -- how they've evolved, that's the quantification. The second one was there was an expectation that Basel 3 was going to put more capital on top of the stack. That's another way that people thought capital was growing.

因此，量化的一部分來自於對 SCB 如何從 20 型變化進行分析。從上個十年後期到 2025 年，以及它們現在所處的位置和它們的發展歷程，這就是量化分析。第二個原因是人們預期巴塞爾協議 3 將把更多的資本投入資本結構。這是人們認為資本成長的另一種方式。

Now the perception is that Basel 3 is going to be more of a neutral event when it's ultimately closed out. And then the third thing is GSIB was supposed to be calibrated to growth in the world, and market cap growth that was put in the statute, but it never followed through. So GSIB, as the world grew, GSIB wasn't supposed to grow as fast as it was growing, but it grew faster.

現在人們普遍認為，當巴塞爾協議3最終結束時，將會是一個相對中性的事件。第三點是，GSIB原本應該與世界經濟成長和市值成長掛鉤，這項規定寫入了法規，但從未執行。因此，隨著世界的發展，GSIB 的發展速度不應該像現在這樣快，但它的發展速度卻更快了。

That's now going to be recalibrated. That's another one. So if you want to kind of calculate those differences, those are three important things I would point you to where you can look at the different banks and calculate that impact.

現在需要重新校準。那又是一個。所以，如果你想計算這些差異，我會指出以下三個重要方面，你可以從中查看不同的銀行並計算其影響。

That's very helpful. Thank you for that, David. Second question would be more of a business mix, desire, right? If you look at the fourth quarter revenue mix, trading 50%, IB 20%, AWM 25% dominant share, great growth.

那很有幫助。謝謝你，大衛。第二個問題更多的是關於業務組合和需求，對嗎？如果看一下第四季的營收組成，交易業務佔 50%，IB 業務佔 20%，AWM 業務佔 25%，佔據主導地位，成長強勁。

If you were to fast forward over the next few years, like what do you think this mix looks like? I mean, maybe how do you want to be viewed by the market because there are, I think, implications for the multiple that we all, want to put on your stock. Thank you.

如果快轉到未來幾年，你覺得這種組合會是什麼樣子？我的意思是，你希望市場如何看待你，因為這會對我們所有人希望給你的股票設定的估值倍數產生影響。謝謝。

Yeah, we're going to continue, we are going to continue to invest in the growth of asset and wealth management and we would like the mix to continue to evolve. I think it can evolve very slowly with the organic growth differential because this is not an unfortunately, but it's a reality. We've been able to grow global banking and markets faster than we might have expected.

是的，我們將繼續投資於資產和財富管理的成長，我們希望這種組合能夠持續發展。我認為它可以隨著有機成長差異而非常緩慢地發展，因為這雖然令人遺憾，但卻是現實。我們實現全球銀行業和市場成長的速度可能比我們預期的要快。

And even though we've grown asset wealth management very nicely, just given the scale of the global banking and markets, that's made the shift in mix slower than we might have all imagined if we go back, 56 years and kind of think about the trajectory that we're on.

儘管我們的資產財富管理發展得非常好，但考慮到全球銀行業和市場的規模，這種轉變比我們所有人回溯 56 年前並思考我們所處的發展軌跡時可能想像的要慢得多。

We will try to find things that accelerate that. In addition to the organic, inorganically, again, with a real discipline around that, as I've stated over and over again, but I do think if you look forward, the mix of the firm will continue because the growth in asset wealth management is faster, it will continue to shift. And we're focused on that.

我們將努力尋找能夠加速這一進程的方法。除了有機成長之外，無機成長也需要真正的紀律，正如我一再強調的那樣。但我認為，展望未來，公司的業務組合將繼續保持，因為資產財富管理的成長速度更快，它將繼續轉變。我們正專注於此。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Hi, thanks for taking my question, squeezing me in. I just have one question, and it is -- it's a clarification more than anything to Erica's question about, where we are in the investment banking cycle, and I think, David, in your response, you said that your people are suggesting that in a base case view 2026 investment banking fees could be closer approach where they were in 2021, which was, over $14 billion and we're running, I think [$25] was a bit over [$9], the delta really is ECM obviously, and, advisory and DCM are kind of, tracking to those to 21 levels already.

您好，感謝您抽空回答我的問題。我只有一個問題，與其說是問題，不如說是對 Erica 的問題的澄清，即我們目前處於投資銀行週期的哪個階段。 David，我認為，你在回覆中提到，你們團隊認為，在基本情況下，2026 年投資銀行費用可能會更接近 2021 年的水平，當時超過 140 億美元。我們目前的運行情況，我認為是 2500 萬美元，略高於 900 萬美元。顯然，真正的差距在於股票資本市場 (ECM)，而諮詢和債務資本市場 (DCM) 也已經大致朝著 2021 年的水準發展。

But just wanted to clarify that were you talking about IV fees as a whole or were you talking about the individual segments advisory DCM, apologize if it was clear to everybody else but me, but obviously an environment where you do $14 billion of investment banking fees. Would seem like an environment where your ROEs for GBM and the firm as a whole would be, materially above the mid-teen level. But just if you can, just clarify that would be helpful.

但我想澄清一下，您指的是整體的 IV 費用，還是指各個細分市場的諮詢 DCM 費用？如果其他人沒聽懂，只有我沒聽懂，我深表歉意，但顯然，這是一個涉及 140 億美元投資銀行費用的環境。在這種環境下，GBM 和整個公司的 ROE 似乎都會顯著高於 15% 的水平。不過，如果你可以的話，請解釋一下，這將會很有幫助。

Sure, I'm sorry, so if I confused you. What I was referring to was advisory fees only. I was -- I'm sorry, what I was referring to was advisory volumes, excuse me, advisory volumes. Now advisory volumes are very correlated to fees, okay, but the chart that I was referring to was one that looked at three different cases for advisory volume, okay, so it wasn't, equity capital markets, et cetera.

當然，如果我讓你感到困惑，我很抱歉。我指的是諮詢費。我——對不起，我指的是諮詢量，抱歉，是諮詢量。現在諮詢業務量與費用非常相關，好吧，但我提到的圖表是針對諮詢業務量的三個不同案例進行的，好吧，所以它不是，股權資本市場等等。

I will tell you that what went on in 2021 with equity capital raising, particularly on the spat phenomenon, that's not going to occur in 2026. So my guess would be that equity capital markets levels will still be meaningfully below the 2021 peak in 2026, but they will be higher than they were this year.

我可以告訴你，2021 年股權融資中發生的情況，特別是關於爭執現象的情況，在 2026 年不會再次發生。因此，我的猜測是，2026 年股票資本市場水準仍將遠低於 2021 年的峰值，但會高於今年的水準。

That would be my estimate based on what we see today. But I was talking specifically about advisory volumes when I made that quote. And look, the advisory, as we've said over and over again, when advisory activity grows, the flywheel creates lots of activity and we were talking industry-wide, not just GS, looking just at industry-wide volume.

根據我們目前所看到的，我的估計就是這樣。但我當時說的那句話特別指諮詢業務量。而且，正如我們一再強調的，諮詢業務的成長會帶來更多業務活動，我們談論的是整個行業，而不僅僅是高盛，我們關注的是整個行業的業務量。

Yeah, okay, got it, no, that, that's helpful, thank you for clarifying that.

好的，明白了，沒問題，這很有幫助，謝謝你的解釋。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you. At this time, there are no additional questions. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。女士們、先生們，高盛2025年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。