高盛 (GS) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。歡迎大家參加高盛 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我將代表高盛在電話會議開始時發表以下免責聲明。

The earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of the Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. This audio cast is copyrighted material of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without consent.

收益報告可以在高盛網站的投資者關係頁面上找到，其中包含有關前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則衡量標準的資訊。此音訊廣播是高盛集團有限公司受版權保護的資料，未經同意不得複製、轉載或轉播。

This call is being recorded today, July 15, 2024. I will now turn the call over to the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon, and Chief Financial Officer, Dennis Coleman. Thank you, Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

本次電話錄音將於今天（2024 年7 月15 日）進行。 。謝謝你，所羅門先生，你可以開始你的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us. I want to begin by addressing the horrible act of violence that occurred over the weekend, the attempted assassination of former President Trump. We are grateful that he is safe. I also want to extend my sincere condolences to the families of those who were tragically killed and severely injured.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝大家加入我們。首先，我想談談週末發生的可怕暴力行為，企圖暗殺前總統川普的事件。我們很感激他安全。我還要向不幸罹難和重傷者的家屬表達誠摯的哀悼。

It is a sad moment for our country. There's no place in our politics for violence. I urge people to come together and to treat one another with respect, civility, dignity, especially when we disagree. We cannot afford division and distrust to get the better of us. I truly hope this is a moment that will spur reflection and action that celebrate what unites us as citizens and as a society.

對我們的國家來說，這是一個悲傷的時刻。我們的政治中沒有暴力的立足之地。我敦促人們團結起來，以尊重、文明和尊嚴的方式對待彼此，尤其是當我們意見不一致時。我們不能承受分裂和不信任來戰勝我們。我真誠地希望這是一個能夠激發反思和行動的時刻，以慶祝我們作為公民和社會的團結。

Turning to our performance. Our second quarter results were solid. We delivered strong year-on-year growth in both global banking and markets and asset wealth management. I am pleased with our performance where we produced a 10.9% ROE for the second quarter and a 12.8% ROE for the first half of the year.

轉向我們的表現。我們第二季的業績穩健。我們在全球銀行業、市場以及資產財富管理領域均實現了年比強勁成長。我對我們的表現感到滿意，第二季的 ROE 為 10.9%，上半年的 ROE 為 12.8%。

We continue to harness our One Goldman Sachs operating approach to execute on our strategy and serve our clients in dynamic environments. Global banking and markets, we maintained our long-standing number one rank in announced and completed M&A and ranked number two in equity underwriting.

我們繼續利用 One Goldman Sachs 的營運方法來執行我們的策略，並在動態環境中為我們的客戶提供服務。在全球銀行業和市場方面，我們在已宣布和完成的併購方面長期保持第一名，在股票承銷方面排名第二。

Our investment banking backlog is up significantly this quarter. From what we're seeing, we are in the early innings of a capital markets and M&A recovery. And while certain transaction volumes are still well below their 10-year averages, we remain very well-positioned to benefit from a continued resurgence in activity. We saw solid year-over-year revenue growth across both FICC and equities as our global broad and deep franchise remained active in supporting clients' risk intermediation and financing needs.

本季我們的投資銀行積壓訂單大幅增加。從我們所看到的來看，我們正處於資本市場和併購復甦的早期階段。儘管某些交易量仍遠低於 10 年平均水平，但我們仍然處於有利地位，可以從活動的持續復甦中受益。由於我們在全球廣泛而深入的特許經營權仍然積極支持客戶的風險中介和融資需求，我們的固定收益和股票收入均實現了同比穩健增長。

We continue to be focused on maximizing our wallet share. And we have improved our standing to be in the top three with 118 of our top 150 clients. In asset wealth management, we are growing more durable management and other fees and private banking and lending revenues, which together were a record $3.2 billion for this quarter.

我們繼續專注於最大化我們的錢包份額。我們的地位也得到了提升，在 150 名頂級客戶中，有 118 家客戶躋身前三名。在資產財富管理方面，我們正在增加更持久的管理和其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款收入，本季這些收入合計達到創紀錄的 32 億美元。

Our assets under supervision hit a record of $2.9 trillion and total wealth management client assets rose to roughly $1.5 trillion. We delivered a 23% margin for the first half of the year and are making progress on improving the return profile of AWM.

我們的監管資產達到創紀錄的2.9兆美元，理財客戶總資產增加約1.5兆美元。我們上半年的利潤率為 23%，並且在改善 AWM 的回報狀況方面正在取得進展。

In alternatives, we raised $36 billion year to date. We completed a number of notable fund closings during the quarter, including $20 billion of total capital for private credit strategies and approximately $10 billion across real estate investing strategies.

在替代方案中，我們今年迄今籌集了 360 億美元。我們在本季完成了多項引人注目的基金交割，包括用於私人信貸策略的 200 億美元總資本和約 100 億美元的房地產投資策略。

Given the stronger than anticipated fundraising in the first half of the year as well as our current pipeline, we expect to exceed $50 billion in alternatives fundraising this year. This is a testament to our investment performance track record and intense focus on client experience. We are excited about the additional growth opportunities for our asset wealth management platform.

鑑於上半年的融資情況強於預期以及我們目前的募款管道，我們預計今年的另類融資融資將超過 500 億美元。這證明了我們的投資業績記錄和對客戶體驗的高度關注。我們對我們的資產財富管理平台的額外成長機會感到興奮。

Let me turn to the operating environment, which remains top of mind for clients. On the one hand, there's a high level of geopolitical instability. Elections across the globe could have significant implications for forward policies and inflation has proven to be stickier than many had anticipated.

讓我談談操作環境，這仍然是客戶最關心的問題。一方面，地緣政治高度不穩定。全球各地的選舉可能會對未來政策產生重大影響，事實證明，通膨比許多人預期的更為棘手。

On the other hand, the environment in the US remains relatively constructive. Markets continue to forecast a soft landing as the expected economic growth trajectory improves and equity markets remain near all-time highs.

另一方面，美國的環境仍然相對有利。隨著預期經濟成長軌跡改善且股市仍接近歷史高點，市場持續預測軟著陸。

I am particularly encouraged by the ongoing advancements in artificial intelligence. Recently, our Board of Directors spent a week in Silicon Valley where we spoke with the CEOs of many of the leading institutions at the cutting-edge of technology and AI.

我對人工智慧的不斷進步感到特別鼓舞。最近，我們的董事會在矽谷度過了一周，與許多前沿技術和人工智慧領先機構的執行長進行了交談。

We all left with a sense of optimism about the application of AI tools and the accelerating innovations and technology more broadly. The proliferation of AI in the corporate world will bring with it significant demand related infrastructure and financing needs, which should fuel activity across our broad franchise.

我們都對人工智慧工具的應用以及更廣泛的創新和技術的加速發展抱持樂觀的態度。人工智慧在企業界的擴散將帶來與基礎設施和融資相關的巨大需求，這將推動我們廣泛的業務活動。

Before I turn it over to Dennis, I want to cover a couple of additional topics that are top of mind for me. First, our recent stress test results, the year-over-year increase in our stress capital buffer does not seem to reflect the strategic evolution of our business and the continuous progress we've made to reduce our stress loss intensity, which the Federal Reserve had recognized in our last three tests.

在將其交給丹尼斯之前，我想先介紹幾個我最關心的其他主題。首先，我們最近的壓力測試結果，壓力資本緩衝的同比增長似乎並沒有反映出我們業務的戰略演變以及我們在降低壓力損失強度方面所取得的持續進展，而美聯儲在我們最近的三項測試中已經得到認可。

Given this discrepancy, we are engaging with our regulators to better understand its determinations. Despite the increase in requirements, we remain very well-positioned to serve our clients and we'll continue to be nimble with our capital.

鑑於這種差異，我們正在與監管機構合作，以更好地了解其決定。儘管需求增加，我們仍然能夠很好地為客戶服務，並且我們將繼續靈活運用我們的資本。

In the second quarter, we repurchased $3.5 billion of shares, which illustrates our ability to dynamically manage our resources and opportunistically return capital to the shareholders. Despite the increase in our repurchase activity, our common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 14.8% under the standardized approach, 90 basis points above our new regulatory minimum and above our ratio in the first quarter. We also announced a 9% increase in our quarterly dividend, which underscores our confidence in the durability of our franchise.

第二季度，我們回購了 35 億美元的股票，這表明我們有能力動態管理資源並伺機向股東返還資本。儘管我們的回購活動有所增加，但按照標準化法，本季末我們的普通股一級資本比率為14.8%，比新的監管最低水準高出90 個基點，也高於第一季的比率。我們也宣布將季度股利增加 9%，這突顯了我們對特許經營持久性的信心。

Since the beginning of 2019, we have more than tripled our quarterly dividend current level of $3 a share. I'd also like to reflect on the significant milestone we hit the second quarter, our 25th anniversary as a public company.

自 2019 年初以來，我們將目前每股 3 美元的季度股息水準增加了兩倍多。我還想回顧一下我們第二季度實現的重要里程碑，即我們作為一家上市公司成立 25 週年。

We went public in 1999, which is also the year I joined the firm and it's been an eventful 25 years. Since then. We have persevered through a number of significant global events, including through the dot-com bubble, Nasdaq crash, September 11, a financial crisis, and the pandemic.

我們在1999年上市，也是我加入公司的那一年，這是不平凡的25年。自那以後。我們堅持不懈地度過了許多重大的全球事件，包括網路泡沫、納斯達克崩盤、9 月 11 日金融危機和新冠疫情。

When I look back at how we overcame these challenges, I immediately think of our culture, one that has evolved, no doubt, but always stay true to our core values. I know that the preservation of our culture is paramount to serving our clients with excellence, maintaining our leading market positions, growing our businesses, and continuing to attract and retain the most talented people.

當我回顧我們如何克服這些挑戰時，我立即想到我們的文化，毫無疑問，這種文化已經不斷發展，但始終忠於我們的核心價值。我知道，保護我們的文化對於為我們的客戶提供卓越服務、保持我們領先的市場地位、發展我們的業務以及繼續吸引和留住最有才華的人才至關重要。

In closing, I am very confident about the state of our client franchise. We are delivering on our strategy by leaning into our core strengths, effectively serving clients in what remains a complicated operating environment. Now let me turn it over to Denis to cover our financial results in more detail.

最後，我對我們客戶特許經營的狀況非常有信心。我們正在透過依靠我們的核心優勢來實現我們的策略，在仍然複雜的營運環境中有效地為客戶提供服務。現在讓我將其轉交給丹尼斯，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, David, and good morning. Let's start with our results on page 1 of the presentation. In the second quarter, we generated net revenues of $12.7 billion and net earnings of $3 billion, resulting in earnings per share of $8.62, an ROE of 10.9%, and an ROTE of 11.6%.

謝謝你，大衛，早安。讓我們從簡報第 1 頁的結果開始。第二季度，我們淨收入 127 億美元，淨利 30 億美元，每股收益 8.62 美元，ROE 為 10.9%，ROTE 為 11.6%。

Now turning to performance by segment, starting on page 4. Global banking and markets produced revenues of $8.2 billion in the second quarter, up 14% versus last year. Advisory revenues of $688 million were up 7% versus the prior year period.

現在從第 4 頁開始討論按細分市場劃分的業績。諮詢收入為 6.88 億美元，比去年同期成長 7%。

Equity underwriting revenues rose 25% year over year to $423 million as equity capital markets have continued to reopen. Low volumes remain well below longer-term averages. Debt underwriting revenues rose 39% to $622 million amid strong leveraged finance activity. We are seeing a material increase in client demand for committed acquisition financing, which we expect to continue on the back of increasing M&A activity.

隨著股權資本市場持續重新開放，股權承銷收入年增 25% 至 4.23 億美元。成交量較低，仍遠低於長期平均。由於槓桿融資活動強勁，債務承銷收入成長 39%，達到 6.22 億美元。我們看到客戶對承諾收購融資的需求大幅增加，我們預期隨著併購活動的增加，這種需求將持續下去。

Our backlog rose significantly quarter on quarter, driven by both advisory and debt underwriting. FICC net revenues were $3.2 billion in the quarter, up 17% year over year. Intermediation results rose on better performance in rates and currencies. FICC financing revenues were $850 million, a near record and up 37% year over year.

在諮詢和債務承銷的推動下，我們的積壓訂單逐季大幅增加。該季度 FICC 淨收入為 32 億美元，年增 17%。由於利率和貨幣表現較好，中介績效上升。 FICC融資收入為8.5億美元，接近歷史最高水平，較去年同期成長37%。

Equities net revenues were $3.2 billion in the quarter, up 7% year on year as higher intermediation results were helped by better performance in derivatives. Equities financing revenues were $1.4 billion, down modestly from a record performance last year, but up 5% sequentially.

本季股票淨收入為 32 億美元，年成長 7%，這是由於衍生性商品表現更好，推動了中介績效的提高。股票融資收入為 14 億美元，比去年創紀錄的業績略有下降，但比上一季成長 5%。

Taken together, financing revenues were a record $2.2 billion for the second quarter and a record $4.4 billion for the first half of the year. Our strategic priority to grow financing across both FICC and equities continues to yield results as these activities increase the durability of our revenue base.

總而言之，第二季融資收入達到創紀錄的 22 億美元，上半年融資收入創紀錄的 44 億美元。我們的策略重點是增加 FICC 和股票融資，因為這些活動提高了我們收入基礎的持久性，因此繼續取得成果。

I'm moving to asset wealth management on page 5. Revenues of $3.9 billion were up 27% year over year. As David mentioned, our more durable management and other fees and private banking and lending revenues reached a new record this quarter of $3.2 billion.

我將轉到第 5 頁的資產財富管理。正如 David 所提到的，我們更持久的管理費和其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款收入本季創下了 32 億美元的新紀錄。

Management and other fees increased 3% sequentially to a record $2.5 billion, largely driven by higher average assets under supervision. Private banking and lending revenues rose 4% sequentially to $707 million.

管理費和其他費用環比增長 3%，達到創紀錄的 25 億美元，這主要是由於受監管的平均資產增加。私人銀行和貸款收入較上季成長 4%，達到 7.07 億美元。

Our premier ultra-high-net-worth wealth management franchise has roughly $1.5 trillion in client assets. This business has been a key contributor to our success in increasing more durable revenues and provides us with a strong source of demand for our suite of alternative products, a great example of the power of this unique platform.

我們首屈一指的超高淨值財富管理特許經營權擁有約 1.5 兆美元的客戶資產。這項業務是我們成功增加更持久收入的關鍵因素，並為我們的替代產品套件提供了強勁的需求來源，這是這個獨特平台力量的一個很好的例子。

We expect continued momentum in this business as we also deepen our lending penetration with clients and grow our advisor footprint. Our pre-tax margin for the first half was 23%, demonstrating substantial improvement versus last year and approaching our mid-20s medium-term target.

我們預計該業務將繼續保持成長勢頭，因為我們還將加深對客戶的貸款滲透並擴大我們的顧問足跡。上半年我們的稅前利潤率為 23%，與去年相比有了顯著改善，接近我們 20 多歲的中期目標。

Now moving to page 6. Total assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record of $2.9 trillion, supported by $31 billion of long-term net inflows, largely from our OCIO business, representing our 26th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based inflows.

現在轉到第6 頁。實現長期收費流入。

Turning to page 7 on alternatives. Alternative AUS totaled $314 billion at the end of the second quarter, driving $548 million in management and other fees. Gross third party fundraising was $22 billion for the quarter and $36 billion for the first half of the year. In the second quarter, we further reduced our historical principal investment portfolio by $2.2 billion to $12.6 billion.

翻到第 7 頁關於替代方案的內容。截至第二季末，另類澳洲總收入為 3,140 億美元，帶動管理費和其他費用達 5.48 億美元。本季第三方募款總額為 220 億美元，上半年為 360 億美元。第二季度，我們進一步減少了歷史本金投資組合 22 億美元，至 126 億美元。

On page 9, firm-wide net interest income was $2.2 billion in the quarter, up sequentially from an increase in higher yielding assets and a shift towards non-interest bearing liabilities. Our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $184 billion, flat versus the prior quarter. For the second quarter, our provision for credit losses was $282 million, primarily driven by net charge-offs in our credit card portfolio and partially offset by a release of roughly $115 million related to our wholesale portfolio.

第 9 頁顯示，本季全公司淨利息收入為 22 億美元，環比成長，原因是高收益資產的增加和無息負債的轉向。截至季末，我們的貸款組合總額為 1,840 億美元，與上一季持平。第二季度，我們的信貸損失準備金為 2.82 億美元，主要是由我們信用卡投資組合的淨沖銷推動的，並被與我們的批發投資組合相關的約 1.15 億美元釋放所部分抵消。

Turning to expenses on page 10. Total quarterly operating expenses were $8.5 billion. Our year-to-date compensation ratio of net of provisions is 33.5%. Quarterly non-compensation expenses were $4.3 billion and included approximately $100 million of CIE impairments. Our effective tax rate for the first half of 2024 was 21.6%. For the full year, we continue to expect a tax rate of approximately 22%.

轉向第 10 頁的支出。我們年初至今扣除撥備後的薪資率為 33.5%。季度非補償費用為 43 億美元，其中包括約 1 億美元的 CIE 減損。 2024 年上半年我們的有效稅率為 21.6%。我們預計全年稅率仍約為 22%。

Next capital on slide 11. In the quarter, we returned $4.4 billion to shareholders, including common stock dividends of $929 million and common stock repurchases of $3.5 billion. Given our higher than expected SCB requirements, we plan to moderate buybacks versus the levels of the second quarter.

投影片 11 上的下一個資本。鑑於我們對 SCB 的要求高於預期，我們計劃相對於第二季的水平適度調整回購規模。

We will dynamically deploy capital to support our client franchise, while targeting a prudent buffer above our new requirement. Our Board also approved a 9% increase in our quarterly dividend to $3 per share beginning in the third quarter, a reflection of our priority to pay our shareholders a sustainable growing dividend and our confidence in the increasing durability of our franchise.

我們將動態部署資本來支援我們的客戶特許經營權，同時在我們的新要求之上建立審慎的緩衝。我們的董事會還批准從第三季開始將季度股息增加9% 至每股3 美元，這反映了我們優先向股東支付可持續增長的股息，以及我們對特許經營權不斷增強的持久性的信心。

In conclusion, we generated solid returns for the first half of 2024, which reflects the strength of our interconnected businesses and the ongoing execution of our strategy. We made strong progress in growing our more durable revenue streams, including record first half revenues across FICC and equities financing, management and other fees, and private banking in lending, we remain confident in our ability to drive strong returns for shareholders, while continuing to support our clients. With that, we'll now open up the line for questions.

總而言之，我們在 2024 年上半年取得了穩健的回報，這反映了我們互聯業務的實力以及我們策略的持續執行。我們在成長更持久的收入流方面取得了強勁進展，包括上半年固定收益和股票融資、管理和其他費用以及私人銀行貸款領域創紀錄的收入，我們對為股東帶來強勁回報的能力仍然充滿信心，同時繼續支持我們的客戶。現在，我們將開放提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

（操作員說明）Glenn Schorr，Evercore。

Hi there. Thanks very much. So I liked your forward-leaning comments on the IB fee pipeline. And I think I heard you say the demand for committed acquisition financing is high. Does that infer anything about us being any closer to an inflection point in private equity related M&A, sponsor-related M&A? And then how much of an event do you think you have as being maybe the only big bank that has a full-on private credit platform, and obviously, DCM platform, and lending platform? Thank you.

你好呀。非常感謝。所以我喜歡您對 IB 費用管道的前瞻性評論。我想我聽到你說承諾收購融資的需求很高。這是否意味著我們更接近私募股權相關併購、贊助商相關併購的轉折點？那麼，作為唯一一家擁有完整私人信貸平台（顯然還有 DCM 平台和貸款平台）的大銀行，您認為您有多大的事件？謝謝。

Sure. Good morning, Glenn, and thanks for the question. We're forward leaning on our comments because we definitely see momentum pickup. But I just again want to highlight something that was definitely my part of the script. But I think Denis amplified, which we're still despite the pickup, we're still operating at levels that are still significantly below 10-year averages.

當然。早安，格倫，謝謝你的提問。我們對我們的評論持前瞻性態度，因為我們確實看到了勢頭的增強。但我只是想再次強調一些絕對是我在劇本中的部分的內容。但我認為丹尼斯放大了這一點，儘管有所回升，但我們的營運水準仍遠低於 10 年平均水準。

And so for example, I think we've got kind of another 20% to go to get to 10-year averages on M&A. One of the reasons that M&A activity -- one of the reasons, not the only reason, but one of the reasons why M&A activity is running below those averages is because sponsor activity is just starting to accelerate. And so I think, especially given the environment that we're in, that you're going to see over the next few quarters into 2025, kind of a reacceleration of that sponsor activity.

舉例來說，我認為我們還需要 20% 的資金才能達到併購的 10 年平均值。併購活動的原因之一——原因之一，不是唯一的原因，而是併購活動低於平均的原因之一是因為贊助商活動剛開始加速。因此，我認為，特別是考慮到我們所處的環境，您將在 2025 年的未來幾季看到贊助商活動的重新加速。

We're seeing it in our dialogue with sponsors. And obviously, it's been way, way below the overall M&A activity has kind of another 20% to get to high 10-year averages, but sponsor has been running below that, and we're starting to see that increase.

我們在與贊助商的對話中看到了這一點。顯然，整體併購活動還遠低於 20%，才能達到 10 年平均水平，但贊助商一直低於這個水平，而且我們開始看到這種增長。

Now as that increases, I just think the firm is incredibly well-positioned, given the breadth of both our leading position. We've been top kind of one, two, three, and what I'll call leveraged finance activity from a league table perspective and with the sponsor community, but we combine it with a very, very powerful direct lending private credit platform.

現在，隨著這一數字的增加，考慮到我們雙方領先地位的廣度，我認為該公司處於令人難以置信的有利地位。從排行榜的角度和贊助商社群來看，我們一直是第一、第二、第三，我稱之為槓桿融資活動，但我們將其與一個非常非常強大的直接貸款私人信貸平台結合。

And so I just think we're in a very, very interesting position. The size and the scope of the companies that are out there, that have to be refinanced, recapitalized, sold, changed hands, the sponsors continue to look, distribute proceeds, you know, to their limited partners, I think bodes well over the course of the next three to five years. Different environments, but the general trend will be more activity than we've seen in the last 2, 2.5 years.

所以我認為我們處於一個非常非常有趣的位置。現有公司的規模和範圍，必須進行再融資、資本重組、出售、易手，贊助商繼續尋找並將收益分配給他們的有限合夥人，我認為這在整個過程中是個好兆頭未來三到五年。環境不同，但整體趨勢將比過去 2、2.5 年中看到的更加活躍。

I appreciate that. Maybe one quickie follow-up on, you mentioned in the prepared remarks, in your printed prepared remarks, that real estate gains helped drive the equity investment gains in the quarter? Can you talk about how material it was and what drove real estate gains during the quarter? Thanks.

我很感激。也許有一個快速的後續行動，您在準備好的演講中提到，在您打印的準備好的講話中，房地產收益有助於推動本季度的股權投資收益？您能談談它的重要性以及推動本季房地產上漲的因素嗎？謝謝。

Sure, Glenn. It's Dennis. I think the important to take away from the year-over-year performance in the equity investment line is that in the prior year period, we actually had significant markdowns as we were sort of an early mover in addressing some of the commercial real estate risk across our balance sheet. And the results that reflect in this most recent quarter do not have the same degree of markdowns as in the prior period. So that is, I think, a large explain of the delta.

當然，格倫。是丹尼斯。我認為，從股權投資業務的同比表現來看，重要的是，在上一年期間，我們實際上進行了大幅降價，因為我們是解決一些商業房地產風險的先行者我們的資產負債表上。最近一個季度反映的結果並未出現與上一期相同程度的降價。我認為這就是對三角洲的一個重要解釋。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning. I just wanted to spend some time on capital, post the SCB increase, one, maybe just from a business standpoint. If you could update us whether the capital requirement changes anything in terms of how the firm has been leaning into the financing business. Do you need to moderate the appetite there or business as usual? So one, how does it impact the business?

嗨，早安。我只是想花一些時間在資本上，在 SCB 增加之後，也許只是從商業角度來看。您能否告訴我們，資本需求是否會改變公司向融資業務傾斜的方式？您需要控制一下食慾還是一切照常嗎？那麼第一，它對業務有何影響？

And second, Denis, your comments on buybacks moderating, should we think more like 1Q levels of buybacks going forward? Thanks.

其次，丹尼斯，您對回購溫和的評論，我們是否應該更多地考慮未來第一季的回購水準？謝謝。

Sure, Ebrahim. So a couple of comments. I guess first important to observe that the level of capital that we're operating with at the moment is reasonably consistent where we've been over the last several years. So we feel that at that level of capital and with the cushion that we have heading into the third quarter, which at 90 basis points is at the wider end of our historical operating range, we have lots of capacity both to continue to deploy into the client franchise.

當然，易卜拉欣。所以有幾點評論。我想首先要注意的是，我們目前營運的資本水準與過去幾年的水準相當一致。因此，我們認為，在這樣的資本水準和進入第三季的緩衝（以 90 個基點計算，處於我們歷史經營範圍的更寬端），我們有大量能力繼續部署到客戶特許經營權。

And with what we're seeing across the client franchise with backlog up significantly, there could be attractive opportunities for us to deploy into the client franchise, whether that's new acquisition financing as David was referencing, or ongoing support of our clients across the financing businesses. We have the capacity to do that, as well as to continue to invest in return of capital to shareholders.

從我們在客戶特許經營中看到的積壓顯著增加的情況來看，我們可能有很有吸引力的機會部署到客戶特許經營中，無論是大衛提到的新收購融資，還是對我們客戶在融資業務中的持續支持。我們有能力做到這一點，並繼續投資，為股東帶來資本回報。

Given the $3.5 billion number in the second quarter, we thought it was advisable to indicate we would be moderating our repurchases, but we still do have capital flexibility. And based on what we see developed from the client franchise, we will make that assessment, we'll manage our capital to an appropriate buffer, but we're still certainly in a position to continue to return capital to shareholders.

鑑於第二季 35 億美元的數字，我們認為表明我們將適度回購是明智的，但我們仍然擁有資本彈性。根據我們從客戶特許經營中看到的發展情況，我們將進行評估，我們將管理我們的資本以達到適當的緩衝，但我們仍然有能力繼續向股東返還資本。

Got it. So assume no change in terms of how we're thinking about the financing business. And just separately in terms of sponsor-led activity, we waited all year for things to pick up. Is it a troubling sign that the sponsors are not able to monetize assets? Does it speak to inflated valuations that they're carrying these assets on? Just would love any context there, David if you could. Thank you.

知道了。因此，假設我們對融資業務的看法沒有改變。就贊助商主導的活動而言，我們整整一年都在等待事情的改善。贊助商無法將資產貨幣化，這是一個令人不安的跡象嗎？這是否表示他們持有這些資產的估值過高？如果可以的話，大衛，我希望有任何背景。謝謝。

Sure. I mean, I appreciate that. I don't think it's troubling. I wouldn't use the word troubling. But I do think that there are places where sponsors hold assets and their ability to monetize them at the value that they currently hold them leads them to wait longer and keep the optionality to have that value compound. At the same point, there's pressure from LPs to continue to turn over funds, especially longer-dated funds.

當然。我的意思是，我很欣賞這一點。我不認為這很麻煩。我不會用「麻煩」這個詞。但我確實認為，在某些地方，贊助商持有資產，他們有能力以目前持有的價值將資產貨幣化，這導致他們等待更長時間，並保留獲得該價值複合的選擇性。同時，有限合夥人也面臨持續週轉資金的壓力，尤其是長期基金。

And as they take that optionality to wait, the pressure just builds. And so I think we're starting to see a bit of an unlock and more of a forward perspective to start to move forward, accept the evaluation parameters, and move forward. But I just think this is natural cycle and you're going to see a pickup in that activity for sure. I'm just not smart enough to tell you exactly which quarter and how quickly, but we are going to go back to more normalized levels.

當他們選擇等待時，壓力就會增加。因此，我認為我們開始看到一些解鎖和更多的前瞻性視角，開始前進，接受評估參數，然後繼續前進。但我只是認為這是自然循環，你肯定會看到該活動有所回升。我只是不夠聰明，無法準確告訴您哪個季度以及多快，但我們將回到更正常化的水平。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. All right. Well, thanks very much. I did just want to lean in on one question regarding how you're managing the expense line as we're going through this environment because we've had this very nice pickup in revenues and comp ratio is going up a little bit, but I'm just wondering is this a signaling to hold for the rest of this year? Or is this just a one-off given that some of the puts and takes you mentioned on deal activity earlier on the call?

早安.好的。嗯，非常感謝。我確實只是想談談一個問題，即在我們經歷這種環境時，您如何管理費用線，因為我們的收入有了非常好的增長，而且補償比率也有所上升，但我只是想知道這是否是今年餘下時間持續存在的訊號？或者，考慮到您在電話會議之前提到的有關交易活動的一些看跌期權和看跌期權，這只是一次性的嗎？

Sure, Betsy. So if you look at year-to-date change in our reviews net of provision, that is tracking ahead of the year-to-date change in our compensation and benefit expense. We are sort of following the same protocol that we always do, which is making our best estimate for what you know we expect to pay for on a full-year basis and doing that in a manner that reflects the performance of the firm as well as the overall competitive market for talent. So based on what we see we think this is the appropriate place to accrue compensation, but we'll obviously monitor that closely as the balance of the year evolves.

當然，貝特西。因此，如果您查看我們的評論中扣除撥備後的年初至今的變化，那就是在跟踪我們的薪酬和福利費用的年初至今的變化。我們遵循我們一貫遵循的相同協議，即對您所知道的我們預計全年支付的費用做出最佳估計，並以反映公司業績以及人才市場整體競爭。因此，根據我們所看到的情況，我們認為這是獲得補償的合適地點，但隨著今年餘額的變化，我們顯然會密切監控這一情況。

Okay. And as we anticipate a continued pick up here in M&A, given everything you mentioned earlier, I would think that, that's positive operating leverage that should be coming your way. Would you agree with that or do I have something wrong there? Thanks.

好的。鑑於您之前提到的一切，我們預計併購活動將持續回升，我認為，這應該是您應該獲得的積極的營運槓桿。您同意這一點還是我有什麼問題？謝謝。

No, so we are certainly hopeful that the business will continue to perform and that we will grow our revenues in line with what the current expectation is based on backlog. And we would love to generate incremental operating leverage if we perform in line with our expectations.

不，所以我們當然希望業務能夠繼續表現，並且我們的收入成長將符合當前基於積壓的預期。如果我們的表現符合我們的預期，我們很樂意產生漸進式營運槓桿。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

布倫南霍肯，瑞銀集團。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. You flagged, Denis, the record financing revenue, which clearly shows momentum behind the business. And it would be my assumption that given rates have been more stable for quite some time now, it seems to reflect balance growth. So one, I want to confirm that that's fair? And could you help us understand how we should be thinking about rate sensitivity as it seems as though maybe a few rate cuts might be on the horizon?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。丹尼斯，你指出創紀錄的融資收入，這清楚地表明了業務背後的動力。我的假設是，鑑於利率在相當長一段時間內已經更加穩定，它似乎反映了餘額增長。那麼，我想確認一下這公平嗎？您能否幫助我們理解我們應該如何考慮利率敏感性，因為似乎可能會出現幾次降息？

Sure. Thank you, Brennan. So we have been on a journey for several quarters and years in terms of committing ourselves to the growth of the more durable revenue streams within global banking and markets. We have our human capital and underwriting infrastructure set up in place. We have relationships with a large suite of clients that are frequent users of these products.

當然。謝謝你，布倫南。因此，我們幾個季度和幾年來一直致力於全球銀行業和市場中更持久的收入流的成長。我們已經建立了人力資本和承保基礎設施。我們與大量經常使用這些產品的客戶建立了合作關係。

The business is very diversified by sub-asset class, and it's a business that we are looking to grow on a disciplined basis. We've had an opportunity to deploy capital in a manner that is generating attractive, risk-adjusted returns. That's something that we're going to remain mindful of. But we believe, given the breadth of that franchise, that we should be able to continue to support the secular growth that our clients are witnessing, even as various rate environments should moderate.

該業務的子資產類別非常多元化，我們希望在嚴格的基礎上實現業務成長。我們有機會以產生有吸引力的風險調整回報的方式部署資本。這是我們要牢記的事。但我們相信，鑑於該特許經營權的廣度，即使各種利率環境應該有所緩和，我們也應該能夠繼續支持我們的客戶正在見證的長期成長。

Okay. And then next question is really sort of a follow-on from Betsy's line of questioning. So year-to-date you've got a 64% efficiency ratio. You know, when we take a step back and think about your targets and aspirations for that metric and an environment -- consider an environment that seems to be improving steadily, you know, how should we be thinking about margins on incremental revenue? You know, could you help us understand how revenue growth will continue to drive improvement in that efficiency ratio?

好的。下一個問題其實是貝特西提問的後續問題。因此，今年迄今為止，您的效率率為 64%。你知道，當我們退一步思考你對該指標和環境的目標和願望時——考慮一個似乎正在穩步改善的環境，你知道，我們應該如何考慮增量收入的利潤率？您能幫助我們了解營收成長將如何持續推動效率比的提升嗎？

Sure. So thank you for that question and thank you for observing the improvement that we're seeing. Obviously, our year-to-date efficiency ratio at 63.8% is nearly 10 points better on a year-over-year basis. Still not at our target of 60%, but we are making progress. As we continue to grow our revenues, we should be able to deliver better and better efficiency.

當然。感謝您提出這個問題，也感謝您觀察到我們所看到的改進。顯然，我們年初至今的效率為 63.8%，年比提高了近 10 個百分點。仍然沒有達到我們 60% 的目標，但我們正在取得進展。隨著我們收入的不斷增長，我們應該能夠提供越來越好的效率。

But ultimately, the type of revenues that we grow and the extent to which they attract variable or volume-based expenses is a contributing factor. But we do have visibility, for example, as we continue to move out of some of our CIE exposures that we should be able to reduce some of the operating expenses associated with that.

但最終，我們成長的收入類型以及它們吸引可變或基於數量的支出的程度是一個影響因素。但我們確實有可見性，例如，隨著我們繼續擺脫一些 CIE 風險，我們應該能夠減少與之相關的一些營運費用。

And we do have a very granular process internally, looking at each of our expense categories on a granular basis and trying to make structural improvements to drive efficiencies over time, while we at the same time look to drive top-line revenues.

我們內部確實有一個非常細粒度的流程，細粒度地審視我們的每個費用類別，並嘗試進行結構性改進，以隨著時間的推移提高效率，同時我們也希望提高營收。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行證券公司。

Hi. I'm just trying to reconcile all the positive comments with returns that are still quite below your target. I mean, you highlight revenue growth in global banking markets and wealth and asset management. You have record financing for equities and FICC combined. You're number one in M&A. You have record management fees. You have record assets under supervision.

你好。我只是試圖將所有正面的評論與仍遠低於您的目標的回報進行調和。我的意思是，您強調了全球銀行市場以及財富和資產管理的收入成長。您的股票融資和 FICC 融資總額創下歷史新高。您是併購領域的第一名。您有創紀錄的管理費。您有受監管的記錄資產。

Your efficiency has gone from 74% to 64%, increased your dividend by 9% to signal your confidence, your CET1 ratios, 90 basis points above even the higher Fed requirements. David, you started off the call saying the results are solid, but then you look at the returns and you say 11% ROE in the second quarter, that's not quite the 15% where you wanted to be. So where's the disconnect from what you're generating in terms of returns and where you'd like to be? Thanks.

你的效率從 74% 上升到 64%，你的股息增加了 9%，以表明你的信心，你的 CET1 比率比聯準會更高的要求高出 90 個基點。大衛，你在電話會議一開始就說結果很穩健，但後來你看看回報，你說第二季的 ROE 為 11%，這不是你想要的 15%。那麼，您所產生的回報和想要達到的目標之間的脫節在哪裡呢？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks Mike. Appreciate the question. Look, we're on a journey. And, you know, the way I look at it, our returns for the first-half of the year at 12.8%. There are, you know, I think there are a couple of things gets in that. One, for sure, we still have a little bit of drag from the enterprise platforms which we're working through, and so that will come out. And at some point as we work through that, over the next 12 to 24 months, we'll continue to make progress on that for the returns in the first-half of the year would be a little higher exit.

是的，謝謝邁克。感謝這個問題。看，我們正在旅行。而且，你知道，在我看來，我們今年上半年的回報率為 12.8%。你知道，我認為其中有一些因素。第一，可以肯定的是，我們仍然受到我們正在開發的企業平台的一點拖累，所以這一點將會出現。在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內，當我們解決這個問題時，我們將繼續在這方面取得進展，因為今年上半年的回報率會稍高。

And then on top of that, as we've said repeatedly on the call and have given a bunch of information, we're still operating meaningfully below 10-year averages in terms of investment banking activity. And I think that'll come back. I obviously can't predict. But if you look at the returns of the firm, we have materially uplifted the returns of the firm. And we're going to continue to focus on that.

最重要的是，正如我們在電話會議上反覆說過的那樣並提供了大量信息，就投資銀行活動而言，我們的營運水平仍然明顯低於 10 年平均水平。我想這會回來的。我顯然無法預測。但如果你看看公司的回報，我們已經大幅提高了公司的回報。我們將繼續關注這一點。

Now the next step to the puzzle is our continued progress in AWM. So you know and you can see the performance over the course of the last few years of global banking and markets, but we've said the AWM ROE is not where it needs to be. You heard our comments about the fact that we've got the margin up to 23%, but the ROE is still around 10%.

現在，解決這個難題的下一步是我們在 AWM 方面的持續進步。所以你知道並且你可以看到過去幾年全球銀行業和市場的表現，但我們已經說過 AWM ROE 並未達到其所需的水平。您聽到了我們的評論，我們的利潤率高達 23%，但 ROE 仍在 10% 左右。

We think we can continue to grow the business. As we've said, high-single-digits, we can continue to improve the margin and ultimately bring up that AWM ROE. And then you look across the firm and you have a stronger return profile. So I think we're making good progress. We didn't say and have not work to do for sure. But we feel good about the progress.

我們認為我們可以繼續發展業務。正如我們所說，高個位數，我們可以繼續提高利潤率並最終提高 AWM ROE。然後你看看整個公司，你會發現報酬率更高。所以我認為我們正在取得良好進展。我們沒有說，也沒有工作要做。但我們對進展感到滿意。

And I assume part of your expectation is a sort of multiplier effect when mergers really kick in. Can you just describe what that multiplier effect could potentially look like based on past cycles?

我認為，當合併真正開始時，您的部分期望是一種乘數效應。

What I would say is one of the things that should be a tailwind for further momentum in our business is a return to average levels. I'm not sitting here saying we're going to go back to periods of time where we went well above 10-year averages, but there's obviously, if we did get back to that period, and there will be some point in the future where we run above average too, and not just below average, we have a tailwind for that.

我想說的是，推動我們業務進一步發展的因素之一就是恢復到平均水準。我並不是坐在這裡說我們將回到遠高於 10 年平均水平的時期，但顯然，如果我們確實回到那個時期，那麼未來將會有某個時刻如果我們的運行也高於平均水平，而不僅僅是低於平均水平，那麼我們就有了一個順風車。

But as a general matter, when there are more M&A transactions, whether with financial sponsors or big corporates, there is more financing attached to that. People need to raise capital to finance those transactions. They need to reposition balance sheets. They need to manage risks through structured transactions. And so there's a multiplier effect as those activities increase. We don't put a multiplier on it, but our whole ecosystem gets more active as transaction volumes increase on the M&A side.

但總的來說，當併購交易增加時，無論是與金融贊助商或大公司進行的併購交易，都會帶來更多的融資。人們需要籌集資金來為這些交易提供資金。他們需要重新定位資產負債表。他們需要透過結構化交易來管理風險。因此，隨著這些活動的增加，會產生乘數效應。我們沒有乘數，但隨著併購方面交易量的增加，我們的整個生態系統變得更加活躍。

And then lastly, for your returns, the denominator is a big factor. So how does that work with the Fed? I know you can't say too much and reasonable people can disagree, but your whole point is that you've de-risked the balance sheet and the company and then here we have the Fed saying that maybe you haven't done so. So how does this process work from here? Will we hear results about the SCB ahead, or is this something that's just behind closed doors?

最後，對於您的回報來說，分母是一個重要因素。那麼這與聯準會如何合作呢？我知道你不能說太多，理性的人可能會不同意，但你的全部觀點是，你已經降低了資產負債表和公司的風險，然後聯準會說也許你還沒有這樣做。那麼這個過程從這裡開始是如何進行的呢？我們是否會在未來聽到有關 SCB 的結果，還是只是秘密進行？

Look, as a general matter, what I'd say, Mike, as a general matter, we're supporters of stress testing. We believe it's an important component of the Fed's mandate to really ensure the safety and soundness of the banking system.

聽著，作為一般性問題，我想說的是，麥克，作為一般性問題，我們是壓力測試的支持者。我們認為，真正確保銀行體系的安全和穩健是聯準會職責的重要組成部分。

However, we've maintained for some time that there are elements of this process that may be distracting from these goals of safety and soundness. The stress test process, as you just highlighted, is opaque. It lacks transparency. It contributes to excess volatility and the stress capital buffer requirements, which obviously makes prudent capital management difficult for us and all of our peers. We don't believe that the results reflect the significant changes we've made in our business. They're not in line with our own calculations, despite the fact that the scenarios are consistent year over year.

然而，一段時間以來，我們一直認為這個過程中的某些因素可能會分散人們對安全性和穩健性目標的注意力。正如您剛才強調的那樣，壓力測試過程是不透明的。它缺乏透明度。它導致過度波動和壓力資本緩衝要求，這顯然使我們和所有同行難以進行審慎的資本管理。我們不認為結果反映了我們在業務中所做的重大變化。儘管這些情景逐年一致，但它們與我們自己的計算不一致。

Now, despite all that, you know, we've got the capital flexibility to serve our clients. We'll continue to work with that capital flexibility and we'll also continue to engage around this process to ensure that over time we can drive the level of capital that we have to hold in our business mix down. But obviously we have more work to do, given this result.

現在，儘管如此，您知道，我們擁有足夠的資本靈活性來服務我們的客戶。我們將繼續保持資本靈活性，並將繼續參與此流程，以確保隨著時間的推移，我們能夠降低業務組合中必須維持的資本水準。但鑑於這個結果，顯然我們還有更多工作要做。

All right, thank you.

好吧。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂文‧丘巴克，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, Good morning. So I wanted to start off with a question. Just want to start with a question on the consumer platform fees. They were down only modestly despite the absence of the Green Sky contribution. Just wanted to better understand what drove the resiliency in consumer revenues, whether the quarterly run rate of $600 million is a reasonable jumping off point as we look at the next quarter?

早安.所以我想從一個問題開始。我只想先問一個關於消費者平台費用的問題。儘管沒有綠天的貢獻，但它們僅略有下降。只是想更了解是什麼推動了消費者收入的彈性，當我們展望下一季時，6 億美元的季度運行率是否是一個合理的起點？

So, Steve, thank you for the question. I mean on a sequential basis, they're down, but that's because we have the absence of the Green Sky contribution. There actually is growth across the card portfolio. I think you've seen that the level of growth has slowed as we have sort of implemented several rounds of underwriting adjustments to the card originations and so our expectation is that on the forward you know the period-over-period growth should be more muted.

所以，史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，按順序來看，它們有所下降，但那是因為我們缺乏「綠天」的貢獻。事實上，整個信用卡組合都在成長。我認為您已經看到增長水平已經放緩，因為我們對卡的起源實施了幾輪承保調整，因此我們的預期是，從長遠來看，您知道同期增長應該更加溫和。

Understood and maybe just one more clarifying question. I know there's been a lot asked about the SCB. Really just wanted to better understand, Denis, since you noted that you're running with 90 bps of cushion, which is actually above normal.

理解了，也許只是再澄清一個問題。我知道有很多人詢問有關 SCB 的問題。丹尼斯，我真的只是想更好地理解，因為您注意到您正在以 90 bps 的緩衝速度運行，這實際上高於正常水平。

Just how you're handicapping the additional uncertainty related to Basel III Endgame. There's certainly been some favorable momentum as per the press reports and even some public comments from regulators? But just want to better understand, given the uncertainty around both the SCB and Basel III Endgame, where you're comfortable running on a CET1 basis over the near to medium term?

您正在如何消除與《巴塞爾協議 III》終局之戰相關的額外不確定性。根據媒體報道甚至監管機構的一些公開評論，肯定存在一些有利的勢頭？但只是想更了解，考慮到 SCB 和巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰的不確定性，您在中短期內是否願意在 CET1 基礎上運行？

Sure, thanks, and I appreciate that question. I think obviously there's been a lot of changes, there's been some changes and expectations. And I think in highlighting that we are operating at the wider end of our range, it is to signal flexibility. And certainly, embedded in that is to address some of the uncertainty which does remain with respect to Basel III Endgame, both the quantum and timing of its resolution.

當然，謝謝，我很欣賞這個問題。我認為顯然發生了很多變化，有一些變化和期望。我認為，強調我們正在更廣泛的範圍內開展業務，是為了表明靈活性。當然，其中的核心是解決《巴塞爾協議III終局之戰》中仍存在的一些不確定性，包括其解決的時間和時間。

It sounds from some of Powell's latest comments that, that may not be something that comes into effect until perhaps into 2025, but we are sort of maintaining a level of cushion that I think is appropriate in light of what we know and we don't know about the future opportunity set for Goldman Sachs, but that buffer is designed to support clients, return capital to shareholders, while maintaining a prudent buffer with some of the lingering uncertainty with respect to future regulatory input.

從鮑威爾的一些最新評論來看，這可能要到 2025 年才會生效，但我們正在保持一定程度的緩衝，根據我們所知道和不知道的情況，我認為這是適當的了解高盛未來的機遇，但這種緩衝旨在支持客戶、向股東返還資本，同時保持審慎的緩衝，以應對未來監管輸入方面一些揮之不去的不確定性。

Helpful color. Thanks for taking my questions.

有用的顏色。感謝您回答我的問題。

Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

Devin Ryan，公民 JMP。

All right, great. Good morning, David and Denis. A couple questions on AWM progress. So the first one is on the alts business specifically, and you're tracking obviously well ahead of the fundraising targets relative to when you set the $1 billion medium-term target for annual incentive fees? And now with over $500 billion in alts AUM and obviously growing, that would seem pretty conservative.

好吧，太好了。早安，大衛和丹尼斯。關於 AWM 進展的幾個問題。那麼第一個是專門針對另類業務的，相對於您設定的年度激勵費 10 億美元的中期目標，您顯然遠遠領先於籌款目標？現在，另類資產管理規模已超過 5,000 億美元，而且明顯在成長，這似乎相當保守。

So I appreciate there's a lot of work to do to generate the returns ahead here, but how should we think about the underlying assumptions for incentive fees in a more normal harvesting environment, just given the mixed shift and the growth that you're seeing in AUM there?

因此，我很感激，要產生回報還有很多工作要做，但是考慮到您所看到的混合轉變和增長，我們應該如何考慮在更正常的收穫環境中激勵費用的基本假設資產管理規模有嗎？

So Devin, I think it's a good question, and I think we share your expectation that, that's going to be a more meaningful contributor on the forward. We laid it out as one of the building blocks at our Investor Day. The contribution coming through that line since then has been not as high as we have modeled from an internal medium to longer term perspective.

所以德文，我認為這是一個很好的問題，我想我們同意你的期望，這將成為未來更有意義的貢獻者。我們將其作為投資者日的基石之一。從那時起，透過這條線產生的貢獻並不像我們從內部中期到長期角度建模的那麼高。

We do give good disclosure that the balance of unrealized incentive fees at the end of the last quarter were $3.8 billion, so you can make you know various assumptions as to what the timing of the recognition of those fees are they can obviously bounce around from time-to-time. It is a granular you know vehicle-by-vehicle build-up, but you know given the current outlook and status of those funds that our best expectation of what level of fees could be coming through that line over the next several years.

我們確實很好地披露了上季度末未實現激勵費用的餘額為 38 億美元，因此您可以讓您了解有關這些費用的確認時間的各種假設，它們顯然會隨著時間的推移而反彈-到時間。這是逐輛車的細粒度積累，但考慮到這些基金的當前前景和狀況，我們對未來幾年該線的費用水平的最佳預期。

So I think it is an important incremental contributor and should be, you know, should help the return profile of asset wealth management on the forward, couple that with the success that we're having with ongoing alts fundraising and that will help to feed future investments and funds, which in turn will generate some backlog of potential incentive fees above and beyond what's already in the unrealized disclosures.

因此，我認為它是一個重要的增量貢獻者，應該有助於資產財富管理的未來回報狀況，再加上我們正在進行的另類融資所取得的成功，這將有助於滿足未來的需求投資和基金，這反過來又會產生一些積壓的潛在激勵費用，超出了未實現披露的金額。

Yeah, okay, thanks, Denis. And then follow-up, this is also kind of connected, but at a recent conference, you highlighted the margin profile of all the standalone businesses and asset and wealth management of public peers, so kind of as a comparison and highlighted 35%-plus for alts and some of the public firms we know are obviously well above that.

是的，好的，謝謝，丹尼斯。然後後續，這也是有聯繫的，但在最近的一次會議上，您強調了所有獨立業務以及公共同行的資產和財富管理的利潤率狀況，作為比較並強調了 35% 以上對於另類投資公司和我們所知道的一些上市公司來說，顯然遠高於這個水平。

So I appreciate you're running the AWM segment is kind of one segment, but if alts does accelerate and we're looking at 60% of alts AUM isn't even the fee earning yet, what does that mean for segment margins relative to kind of that mid-20% target, because you're already at 23% thus far in '24. So just trying to think about the incremental margins coming from the acceleration in growth, particularly from the alts segment as well?

所以我很欣賞你運行的AWM 細分市場是一個細分市場，但如果alts 確實加速了，而且我們看到60% 的alt AUM 甚至還不是費用收入，那麼這對於細分市場的利潤率意味著什麼？那麼，只是想考慮成長加速帶來的增量利潤，特別是來自另類市場的成長嗎？

So that's a good question, Devin. I mean, it should be a significant unlock for us because despite the breadth and the longevity with which we've been running our alts businesses, there is significant opportunity for us to actually improve the margin profile of the alts activities in particular relative to the overall AWM margin, particularly as we develop incremental scale by strategy.

這是一個很好的問題，德文。我的意思是，這對我們來說應該是一個重大的釋放，因為儘管我們經營另類業務的廣度和壽命很長，但我們有很大的機會真正改善另類活動的利潤狀況，特別是相對於總體AWM 利潤率，特別是當我們透過策略發展增量規模時。

And so in addition to just overall growth in the segment, which should unlock margin improvements, actually within our portfolio of activities, the alts business, again, despite its current scale, presents a big opportunity for incremental margin contribution.

因此，除了該領域的整體成長（這應該會釋放利潤率的提高）之外，實際上在我們的業務組合中，另類業務儘管目前規模龐大，但仍為增量利潤貢獻提供了巨大的機會。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農，傑弗里斯。

Thanks, good morning. In terms of your on-balance sheet investments, you continue to make progress in reducing that this quarter. Can you talk about the outlook for this year or any line of sight in terms of exits that we can think about?

謝謝，早安。就資產負債表內投資而言，本季您在減少投資方面持續取得進展。您能否談談今年的展望或我們可以考慮的退出方面的任何思路？

Sure. Thank you. Obviously, an ongoing commitment of ours to move down those on balance sheet exposures, also part of the equity and capital story and returns in the segment at $2.2 billion for the quarter, that was a decent reduction. We obviously have a target out there to sell down the vast majority of that balance, which is now at $12.6 billion by the end of next year.

當然。謝謝。顯然，我們一直致力於降低資產負債表上的風險敞口，這也是股權和資本故事的一部分，並且該部門本季的回報率為 22 億美元，這是一個相當大的減少。顯然，我們的目標是到明年年底出售大部分餘額，目前餘額為 126 億美元。

But our expectation is that we will continue to chip away at it across both the third and the fourth quarter of this year and then on into 2025. There's really no change on our commitment to sell down the vast majority of that by the end of next year.

但我們的預期是，我們將在今年第三季和第四季繼續削減它，然後持續到 2025 年。

Understood. And as a follow-up, just within asset and wealth, particularly on the alts side, the fundraising target raised for the full-year given the success you've had. The private credit fund closing here in the first-half was big.

明白了。作為後續行動，就資產和財富而言，特別是在另類投資方面，考慮到你們所取得的成功，全年的籌款目標提高了。上半年私募信貸基金規模較大。

Can you talk to some of the other strategies that have the potential to scale as you mentioned earlier and/or maybe are a little bit smaller that have really large or increasing momentum as you think about second-half, but also as we even into next year?

您能否談談其他一些策略，這些策略有可能像您之前提到的那樣擴展，和/或可能規模較小，但當您考慮下半年時，甚至在我們進入下一個階段時，這些策略具有非常大或不斷增長的勢頭年？

Sure. So you know, obviously taking a step back, you're talking about the targets that we set, you know, once upon a time it was $150 billion, we moved it to $225 billion. It's now at $287 billion and with $36 billion raised through the first-half and us expecting to surpass $50 billion, that means we should be north of $300 billion by the end of this year.

當然。所以你知道，顯然退一步來說，你正在談論我們設定的目標，你知道，曾經是 1500 億美元，我們把它提高到了 2250 億美元。現在的規模為 2,870 億美元，上半年籌集了 360 億美元，我們預計將超過 500 億美元，這意味著到今年年底我們應該會超過 3,000 億美元。

And I think one of the things that we find attractive about our platform is that we have opportunities to scale across multiple asset classes within alternatives, equity, credit, real estate, infrastructure. We had notable fundraisings in private credit and real estate this quarter, but you can see contribution from other strategies like equity on the forward and a number of different strategies, both by asset class and by region. So we think we have a diversified opportunity set to continue to scale the alts platform.

我認為我們平台的吸引力之一是我們有機會在另類投資、股票、信貸、房地產、基礎設施等多個資產類別中擴展。本季我們在私人信貸和房地產領域進行了顯著的籌款活動，但您可以看到其他策略的貢獻，例如遠期股權和許多不同策略（按資產類別和地區劃分）。因此，我們認為我們有一個多元化的機會來繼續擴大替代平台的規模。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning. I was wondering if you could just elaborate a bit on the competitive landscape specifically in banking and markets. I know it's always competitive, but some of the really big bank peers, you know, are leaning in who haven't been a few years ago.

早安.我想知道您是否可以詳細說明銀行業和市場領域的競爭格局。我知道競爭總是很激烈，但一些真正的大銀行同行正在向我們傾斜，而幾年前還沒有這樣做。

And all these regional banks that I cover are also realizing that they need broader cap and market capabilities. So you're obviously an industry leader in a lot of the areas across banking and markets. And I'm just wondering how you're seeing the competition impact you at this point?

我所涵蓋的所有這些區域性銀行也意識到它們需要更廣泛的上限和市場能力。因此，您顯然是銀行和市場許多領域的行業領導者。我只是想知道此時此刻您如何看待競爭對您的影響？

Sure, Matt, and I appreciate the question. I just say, you know, investment banking and the markets business, the trading business, they've always been competitive businesses. I think our integrated One GS approach is a very, very competitive offering. I mean, we can have debates, but it's, I think, one of the top two offerings out there, depending on how you look at it what you look at.

當然，馬特，我很欣賞這個問題。我只是說，你知道，投資銀行和市場業務、交易業務，它們一直是競爭性業務。我認為我們的整合 One GS 方法是一種非常非常有競爭力的產品。我的意思是，我們可以進行辯論，但我認為這是最重要的兩個產品之一，這取決於您如何看待它。

There's always going to be competition, there are always going to be people that come in and make investments in niche areas, but broadly speaking you know we've had leading M&A share for 25-years. We have leading share in capital raising for an equivalent period of time. We've continued to invest in our debt franchises over the last more than decade. An then our trading businesses and our ability to intermediate risk I think have been second to none or viewed as second to none for a long, long time.

競爭總是存在的，總會有人進來並在利基領域進行投資，但從廣義上講，您知道我們在併購市場份額上已經領先 25 年了。在同等期間內，我們在融資方面佔據領先地位。在過去的十多年裡，我們繼續投資於我們的債務特許經營權。然後，我認為我們的貿易業務和中介風險的能力是首屈一指的，或者在很長一段時間內被視為首屈一指的。

And so the combination of our focus on serving our clients, making sure we're giving them the right resources, both human capital and financial capital, to accomplish what they need to accomplish, the fact that we have global scale positions us very well. They'll always be competitors, but I like where our franchise sits. And I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be able to continue to invest in it, strengthen it, and continue to have it operating as a leader in what's always been and will continue to be a very competitive business.

因此，我們專注於為客戶提供服務，確保為他們提供正確的資源（包括人力資本和財務資本）來完成他們需要完成的任務，事實上，我們擁有全球規模，這使我們處於非常有利的地位。他們永遠是競爭對手，但我喜歡我們的特許經營權所在。我不認為我們有任何理由不能繼續對其進行投資、加強它，並繼續讓它在一直並將繼續是一個非常有競爭力的業務中保持領先地位。

Okay helpful and agreed. And then just separately, I hate to ask you about activity levels and stuff like that since the debate three, four weeks ago, but maybe I'll frame it. From your experience in presidential election periods like this, where there's maybe just more uncertainty than normal, like how do both institutional and corporate clients react? Do they kind of say, well, let's wait and see the other side? Is it just noise, because we've been going through it for some time here, but what are your thoughts on that? Thank you.

好的，有幫助並同意。然後，單獨地，我不想問你自三、四個星期前的辯論以來的活動水平和類似的事情，但也許我會框架它。從您在這樣的總統選舉時期的經驗來看，可能比平常有更多的不確定性，例如機構和企業客戶如何反應？他們是否會說，好吧，讓我們拭目以待吧？這只是噪音嗎？謝謝。

There are always exogenous factors that affect corporate activity and institutional client activity. I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't see what the next 100 days leading up to our election will bring, but I think we're well-positioned to serve our clients. Regardless of the environment, the clients are very active at the moment, and I think they're probably going to continue to be active.

影響企業活動和機構客戶活動的外生因素總是存在的。我沒有水晶球，所以我看不到選舉前的 100 天會發生什麼，但我認為我們已經做好了為客戶服務的準備。無論環境如何，客戶目前都非常活躍，而且我認為他們可能會繼續活躍。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you. Good morning, David. Good morning, Denis. David, you said in your opening comments that you took the Board out to Silicon Valley and you were impressed with the artificial intelligence and what we could expect in the future and the opportunities for Goldman to be able to finance some of the infrastructure needs that may come of that.

謝謝。早安，大衛。早安，丹尼斯。大衛，你在開場白中說，你把董事會帶到了矽谷，你對人工智慧、我們對未來的期望以及高盛能夠為一些基礎設施需求提供資金的機會印象深刻。

Can you share with us the artificial intelligence that you guys are implementing within Goldman and how it's making you more productive, generating maybe greater revenues or even making it more efficient?

您能否與我們分享您在高盛內部實施的人工智慧以及它如何提高您的生產力，創造更多的收入，甚至提高效率？

Sure, I mean, at a high level, Gerard, we as most companies around the world are focused on how you can create use cases that increase your productivity. And if you think about our business as a professional service firm and a people business, where we have lots of very, very highly productive people creating tools that allow them to focus their productivity on things that advance their ability to serve clients or interact in markets is a very, very powerful tool.

當然，我的意思是，傑拉德，從高水準來看，我們與世界上大多數公司一樣，都專注於如何創建可提高生產力的用例。如果您將我們的業務視為專業服務公司和以人為本的企業，我們擁有許多非常非常高效的人員，他們正在創建工具，使他們能夠將生產力集中在提高服務客戶或市場互動能力的事情上是一個非常非常強大的工具。

So if you look and you think across the scale of our business, I think you can think of lots of places where the capacity to use these tools to take work that's always been done on a more manual basis and allow the very smart people to do that work to focus their attention on clients are quite obvious.

因此，如果您縱觀我們的業務規模，我認為您可以想到很多地方，可以使用這些工具來完成一直以手動方式完成的工作，並允許非常聰明的人來做將注意力集中在客戶身上的工作是非常明顯的。

You can look at it in an area like the equity research area as every quarter you're all analysts on the phone. There's lots of ways that these tools can leverage your capacity to spend more time with clients. You think about our investment banking business and the ability in our investment banking business to have what I'll call the factory of the business prepare information, thoughtful information for clients, the revolution's there.

你可以在股票研究領域這樣的領域來看它，因為每個季度你們都是電話分析師。這些工具可以透過多種方式利用您的能力，將更多時間花在客戶身上。你想想我們的投資銀行業務，以及我們投資銀行業務的能力，我稱之為業務工廠，為客戶準備信息，周到的信息，革命就在那裡。

When you look at the data sets we have across the firm and our ability to get data and information to clients, so that they can make better decisions around the way they position in markets, that's another obvious use case. For our engineering stack and we have close to 11,000 engineers inside the firm, the ability to increase their coding productivity is meaningful.

當您查看我們在整個公司擁有的數據集以及我們向客戶獲取數據和資訊的能力時，以便他們能夠圍繞其在市場中的定位方式做出更好的決策，這是另一個明顯的用例。對於我們的工程堆疊來說，我們公司內部有近 11,000 名工程師，提高編碼生產力的能力是有意義的。

So those are a handful, there are others. We have a broad group of people that are very focused on this. But again, I'd step back. Well, this will increase our productivity. The thing that we're most excited about is all businesses are looking at these things and are looking at ways that it adapts and changes their business. And that will create more activity in a tailwind broadly for our businesses. People will need to make investment, they'll need financing, they'll need to scale. And so we're excited about that broad opportunity.

所以這些只是少數，還有其他一些。我們有一群非常關注這一點的人。但我還是會退一步。嗯，這會提高我們的生產力。最令我們興奮的是，所有企業都在關注這些事情，並尋找適應和改變其業務的方法。這將為我們的企業創造更多的順風車活動。人們需要進行投資，需要融資，需要擴大規模。因此，我們對這個廣泛的機會感到興奮。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, Denis, you talked about credit, and it was impressive that you didn't have any charge-offs in the wholesale book. Can you give us some color on what you're seeing there? It seems like there must be some improvement since obviously you didn't have any charge-offs in the wholesale book?

非常好。然後，作為後續行動，丹尼斯，您談到了信貸，令人印象深刻的是您在批發書中沒有任何沖銷。您能給我們一些您在那裡看到的情況的資訊嗎？看起來肯定有一些改進，因為顯然你們在批發書中沒有任何沖銷？

Sure. Thanks, Gerard. As you observe, the charge-off rate for us in the wholesale is approximately 0%. What we did see in this quarter was release, and we've been able to improve some of our models and be able as a consequence to release some of the provisions in the wholesale segment.

當然。謝謝，傑拉德。正如您所觀察到的，我們批發的沖銷率約為 0%。我們在本季度確實看到了發布，我們已經能夠改進我們的一些模型，因此能夠在批發領域發布一些條款。

So while that was a contributing benefit to sort of call it the net PCL of the quarter with consumer charge-offs offset by that wholesale release, that's not necessarily something that we would expect to repeat each quarter in the future.

因此，雖然這是一個貢獻性的好處，可以稱之為本季度的淨 PCL，消費者沖銷被批發釋放所抵消，但這不一定是我們期望在未來每個季度重複的事情。

And although we manage our credit and our wholesale risk very, very diligently and consistently, it is more likely the case that we will have some degree of impairments, given our size and scale and representation in the business. But we're pleased that the overall credit performance in terms of charge-offs is about 0%.

儘管我們非常、非常勤奮、一致地管理我們的信用和批發風險，但考慮到我們的規模和業務代表性，我們更有可能遭受一定程度的減損。但我們很高興看到沖銷的整體信貸表現約為 0%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a follow-up on capital, I mean, it certainly is encouraging that your CET1 ratio rose 20 bps in a quarter where you bought back $3.5 billion of stock and you did have a -- I think, a [$16 billion] reduction in RWA as your presentation talks about credit RWA is falling this quarter? I guess, can you just give a little bit more color on what drove that reduction? And I guess more importantly, is there a continued room for RWA optimization from here to help manage your capital levels?

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。我的意思是，這只是資本的後續行動，在一個季度裡，你回購了35 億美元的股票，你的CET1 比率上升了20 個基點，而且你確實減少了——我認為，[160 億美元]當您的演講談到信貸時，RWA 本季會下降嗎？我想，您能否進一步說明一下推動這種減少的原因？我想更重要的是，這裡是否還有持續優化 RWA 的空間來幫助管理您的資本水準？

Sure, thanks, Saul. I appreciate that question. Capital optimization, RWA optimization, is something that we've been committed to for a very long period of time. On the quarter, there were reductions both in credit and market risk RWAs. Drivers included less derivative exposure, reduced equity investment exposure, and in some places lower levels of volatility.

當然，謝謝，索爾。我很欣賞這個問題。資本優化、RWA 優化是我們長期以來一直致力於的事情。本季度，信貸和市場風險風險加權資產均有所下降。驅動因素包括衍生性商品部位減少、股權投資曝險減少、某些地區波動性降低。

We try to get the right balance between deploying on behalf of client activity, as well as being efficient and rotating out of less productive activities or following through on our strategic plan to narrow focus and reduce balance sheet exposure. So that is something that was contributed to quarter-over-quarter benefit despite the buyback activity we executed. And it's something we'll remain very focused on just given the multiplicity of binding constraints that we operate under.

我們試圖在代表客戶活動進行部署與提高效率並退出生產力較低的活動或遵循我們的策略計劃以縮小重點並減少資產負債表風險之間取得適當的平衡。因此，儘管我們執行了回購活動，但這仍然對季度環比收益做出了貢獻。考慮到我們運作時面臨的多重約束，我們將繼續非常關注這一點。

Thank you, that's helpful. And maybe a follow-up on financing, FICC financing up 37%, equities -- equity financing is now something close to 45% of all of your equity sales and trading revenues. I guess how much more room is there, or how should we think about sort of the size of the opportunity set, you know, to continue to grow from here? How much more space is there, you know, to use finding a thing as a mechanism to help deepen penetration with your top institutional clients?

謝謝，這很有幫助。也許是融資的後續，FICC 融資增加了 37%，股票——股權融資現在接近所有股票銷售和交易收入的 45%。我猜還有多少空間，或者我們應該如何考慮機會集的大小，你知道，從這裡繼續增長？您知道，還有多少空間可以使用尋找事物作為一種機制來幫助加深對頂級機構客戶的滲透？

That's a good question, Saul. I think on the FICC financing side, as I indicated, we do think that we are helping clients participate in the overall level of growth that they're seeing in their businesses. And you know, we think based on what we see currently, that we can calibrate the extent of our growth based largely on how we assess the risk return opportunity set across the client portfolio.

這是個好問題，索爾。我認為在 FICC 融資方面，正如我所指出的，我們確實認為我們正在幫助客戶參與他們在業務中看到的整體成長水平。你知道，根據我們目前所看到的情況，我們認為我們可以主要根據我們如何評估整個客戶投資組合的風險回報機會來調整我們的成長程度。

So we're being disciplined with respect to our growth, but trying also to support clients in their growth and drive a more durable characteristic across the GBM business.

因此，我們在成長方面受到嚴格約束，但也努力支持客戶的成長，並在整個 GBM 業務中推動更持久的特徵。

In equities, the activity and the balances, et cetera, obviously have benefited from equity market inflation over the course of the year, but it's also an activity that we remain committed to in terms of supporting clients.

在股票方面，活動和餘額等顯然受益於今年的股票市場通膨，但這也是我們在支持客戶方面仍然致力於的活動。

And clients look to us on a holistic basis really across both FICC and equities to ensure that across all of the activities they're doing with us that we're finding some balance between helping them through financing activities, helping them with intermediation, helping them with human capital. So both of those activities are part of more interconnected activities with clients and something that we remain very focused on and think we can continue to grow.

客戶在 FICC 和股票方面都從整體上看待我們，以確保在他們與我們一起開展的所有活動中，我們在幫助他們進行融資活動、幫助他們進行中介、幫助他們之間找到某種平衡與人力資本。因此，這兩項活動都是與客戶更相互關聯的活動的一部分，也是我們仍然非常關注並認為我們可以繼續發展的事情。

Okay, great, thank you.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

Thank you. At this time there are no additional questions in queue. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs' second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。目前隊列中沒有其他問題。女士們、先生們，高盛 2024 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。