高盛 (GS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to The Goldman Sachs' Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天將擔任本次會議的主持人。歡迎各位參加高盛2023年第四季財報電話會議。

On behalf of Goldman Sachs, I will begin the call with the following disclaimer, the earnings presentation can be found on the Investor Relations page of The Goldman Sachs website and contains information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. This audio cast is copyrighted material of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without consent. This call is being recorded today, January 16, 2024.

我謹代表高盛集團，首先聲明以下免責聲明：盈利報告可在高盛集團網站的投資者關係頁面查閱，其中包含前瞻性陳述和非GAAP財務指標資訊。本次音訊廣播為高盛集團有限公司的版權所有，未經許可不得複製、轉載或重播。本次電話會議於2024年1月16日錄製。

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman. Thank you. Mr. Solomon, you may begin your conference.

現在我將把電話交給董事長兼執行長大衛·所羅門先生和財務長丹尼斯·科爾曼先生。謝謝。所羅門先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. 2023 was a dynamic year. The U.S. economy proved to be more resilient than expected despite a number of headwinds to growth, including a significant tightening of financial conditions, regional bank failures and an escalation of geopolitical tensions.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝各位的收看。 2023年是充滿變數的一年。儘管面臨諸多成長阻力，包括金融環境顯著收緊、地區性銀行倒閉以及地緣政治緊張局勢升級，美國經濟依然展現出比預期更強的韌性。

Against this backdrop, this was a year of execution for Goldman Sachs. In addition to narrowing our strategic focus, we further strengthened our core businesses. As we enter 2024, the potential for rate cuts in the first half of this year has renewed optimism for a soft landing. And we are already seeing signs of potential resurgence in strategic activity, which is reflected in our backlog. I'm starting today's presentation with a strategic update and Denis will provide comments on the financial results.

在此背景下，對高盛而言，今年是執行力最強的一年。除了縮小策略重點之外，我們也進一步強化了核心業務。進入2024年，今年上半年降息的可能性重燃了人們對經濟軟著陸的樂觀情緒。我們已經看到戰略活動可能復甦的跡象，這體現在我們的積壓訂單上。我今天首先會介紹一下策略進展，之後丹尼斯將對財務表現進行點評。

Beginning on Page 1. We aspire to be the world's most exceptional financial institution, united by our shared value client service, partnership, integrity and excellence, and over the last 155 years, we have created one of the most aspirational brands and financial services. Goldman Sachs is the preeminent global investment bank and a leader across asset and wealth management. We've continued to simplify our strategy and today is an opportunity to take stock of our progress as well as highlight avenues for further growth. The strategic objectives on this page underscore our relentless commitment to serve our clients with excellence to further strengthen our client franchise.

從第1頁開始。我們致力於成為全球最卓越的金融機構，秉持共同的價值觀－客戶服務、合作、誠信和卓越，在過去的155年中，我們打造了最具雄心壯志的品牌和金融服務。高盛是全球首屈一指的投資銀行，也是資產和財富管理領域的領導者。我們不斷簡化策略，今天正是回顧過去、展望未來發展方向的良機。本頁的策略目標彰顯了我們矢志不渝地為客戶提供卓越服務，以進一步鞏固客戶基礎的承諾。

As we show on Page 2, we have two world-class and interconnected franchises that are well-positioned to achieve these strategic objectives. First, Global Banking & Markets, which includes our top-ranked investment bank with an unparalleled merger franchise and our leading capital markets business. It also includes our #1 Equities franchise and top 3 FICC franchise, where we are uniquely positioned to serve our clients across geographies and products.

正如我們在第二頁所示，我們擁有兩大世界一流且相互關聯的業務部門，它們完全有能力實現這些策略目標。首先是全球銀行及資本市場業務，其中包括我們排名第一的投資銀行（擁有無與倫比的併購業務）和領先的資本市場業務。此外，它還包括我們排名第一的股票業務和排名前三的固定收益、外匯及大宗商品（FICC）業務，憑藉這些優勢，我們能夠跨地域、跨產品地為客戶提供服務。

And second, our unified Asset & Wealth Management business, where we are a leading global active asset manager with a top 5 alternatives business and a premier ultra-high net worth wealth management franchise. This is a scaled business with over $2.8 trillion in assets under supervision, and where we see significant opportunity for further growth. Across these two businesses, our extraordinary talent and unmatched execution are bolstered by our One Goldman Sachs operating ethos.

其次，我們統一的資產及財富管理業務，使我們成為全球領先的主動型資產管理公司，旗下另類投資業務位列前五，並擁有頂尖的超高淨值財富管理業務。該業務規模龐大，管理資產超過2.8兆美元，我們看到了巨大的成長潛力。在這兩項業務中，我們卓越的人才和無與倫比的執行力都得益於我們「一個高盛」的營運理念。

On Page 3, we lay out our progress across a number of key priorities that we discussed at our most recent Investor Day in February 2023. In Global Banking & Markets, we've maintained and strengthened our leadership positions across Investment Banking. In FICC & Equities, we have improved our standing with the top 150 clients. We generated record total financing revenues across these businesses in 2023, and have demonstrated impressive growth over the last 4 years.

在第三頁，我們詳細闡述了我們在2023年2月最近一次投資者日上討論的幾項關鍵優先事項的進展。在全球銀行及資本市場業務領域，我們維持並鞏固了在投資銀行領域的領先地位。在固定收益、外匯及股票業務領域，我們提升了與前150家客戶的關係。 2023年，我們在這些業務領域創造了創紀錄的融資總收入，並在過去四年中展現了令人矚目的成長。

In Asset & Wealth Management, we've driven solid investment performance and consistent growth in our more durable revenue base of Management and Other Fees and Private Banking and Lending revenues. This past year, we reduced our historical principal investments by $13 billion and also surpassed our 5-year alternatives fundraising target, one year ahead of schedule.

在資產及財富管理領域，我們實現了穩健的投資業績，並在管理費及其他費用和私人銀行及貸款等更穩定的收入來源方面保持了持續增長。去年，我們將歷史本金投資減少了130億美元，並提前一年完成了五年另類投資募款目標。

I will talk more about each of these businesses in a moment, but before I do, I would like to speak about how we've narrowed our strategic focus. We made several important decisions and swiftly executed on them; We exited the Marcus lending business and sold substantially all of our Marcus loan portfolio; We sold our Personal Financial Management business. We announced the sale of GreenSky, which remains on track to close this quarter. We also sold the majority of our GreenSky loan portfolio, which settled in the fourth quarter. We have also reached an agreement with General Motors regarding a process to transition the credit card program to another issuer. We remain committed to supporting the products and servicing customers through the various transition agreements in our consumer activities.

稍後我會詳細介紹這些業務，但在此之前，我想先談談我們如何縮小策略重點。我們做出了幾項重要決策並迅速執行：我們退出了Marcus貸款業務，並出售了Marcus貸款組合的絕大部分；我們出售了個人財務管理業務。我們宣布了GreenSky的出售計劃，該計劃目前仍按計劃於本季完成。我們也出售了GreenSky貸款組合的大部分，該交易已於第四季度完成。此外，我們也與通用汽車就信用卡計畫向其他發卡機構的過渡流程達成了協議。我們將繼續致力於透過各項消費者業務過渡協議，為產品和服務提供支援。

I firmly believe companies should innovate and seek out new opportunities for growth, but it is also important to be nimble and make tough decisions when needed. Our consumer ambitions have produced over $150 billion of deposits, which we expect to go further from here. These deposits have materially improved the firm's funding profile. Now we are focusing our growth in other areas where we have a proven "right to win." We recognize that scale matters, as it allows the firm to operate more efficiently and manage incremental regulatory and other costs, making unit economics more favorable. And we need to be measured and focused on our execution. Our narrowed strategy is now focused on our two core businesses where we have a proven "right to win" with our leadership position, scale and exceptional talent.

我堅信企業應該不斷創新，尋求新的成長機遇，但同時也要靈活應變，在必要時做出艱難的抉擇。我們面向消費者的業務已吸引了超過1500億美元的存款，我們預計未來存款額將持續成長。這些存款顯著改善了公司的資金狀況。現在，我們將成長重心轉移到其他我們擁有「制勝優勢」的領域。我們深知規模的重要性，它能幫助公司更有效率地經營，有效控制監管成本和其他新增成本，進而提升單位經濟效益。同時，我們也需要謹慎行事，專注執行。我們精簡後的策略重點放在兩大核心業務上，憑藉我們的領先地位、規模優勢和卓越人才，我們已在這些領域擁有「制勝優勢」。

On Page 4, in Global Banking & Markets, our leading and diversified franchise, has produced average revenues of $32 billion over the last 4 years across a number of different market environments, demonstrating the diversity and relative durability of this business in aggregate. In the last several years, we made a concerted effort to grow our wallet share and financing revenues, which have clearly raised the revenue floor for these businesses. We have also generated attractive returns, with an average ROE fully allocated of over 16% over the last 4 years.

在第4頁，我們領先的多元化業務部門——全球銀行及資本市場——在過去四年中，無論市場環境如何變化，平均營收均達到320億美元，充分展現了該業務的多元化和相對穩健性。過去幾年，我們致力於提升客戶份額和融資收入，顯著提高了這些業務的營收底線。此外，我們也取得了可觀的回報，過去四年平均完全分配後的淨資產收益率超過16%。

Turning to Page 5, a key part of enhancing the durability has been executing on our strategic priorities. Our efforts to materially strengthen the client franchise are evidenced by wallet share gains of roughly 350 basis points since 2019. We've maintained our league table ranking of #1 in Announced and Completed M&A, #1 in Equity and Equity-related Underwriting, #2 in High-Yield Debt. In FICC & Equities, we are in the top 3 with 117 of our top 150 clients. These competitive positions are a reflection of our One Goldman Sachs approach and our clients' confidence in us. In addition, we have significantly increased more durable Financing revenues. FICC & Equities Financing together have grown at a 15% CAGR since 2019 to a new record of nearly $8 billion.

翻到第五頁，我們可以看到，提升業績持久性的關鍵在於有效執行我們的策略重點。自2019年以來，我們客戶的錢包份額增加了約350個基點，這充分證明了我們致力於切實加強客戶基礎的努力。我們在已宣布和已完成的併購交易、股權及股權相關承銷以及高收益債券領域均保持了排名第一、第二的行業領先地位。在固定收益、大宗商品及股票領域，我們名列前三，擁有117家前150強客戶。這些競爭優勢體現了我們「一個高盛」的理念以及客戶對我們的信任。此外，我們大幅提升了更具持久性的融資業務收入。自2019年以來，固定收益、大宗商品及股票融資業務合計年複合成長率達15%，創下近80億美元的新紀錄。

Turning to Asset & Wealth Management on Page 6. We continue to make progress on bolstering more durable revenue streams. Management and Other fees and Private Banking and Lending revenue together have grown at a CAGR of 12% since 2019. We have also made swift progress on reducing our historical principal investments and are already approaching our pre-tax margin target on an adjusted basis.

請翻至第6頁的資產及財富管理部分。我們在增強收入來源的可持續性方面持續取得進展。自2019年以來，管理費及其他費用及私人銀行及貸款收入合計年複合成長率達12%。此外，我們在減少歷史本金投資方面也取得了顯著進展，經調整後，稅前利潤率已接近目標。

Turning to Page 7. Our solid investment performance across both traditional and alternative channels has driven inflows. Over 75% of our traditional funds performed in the top half of Morningstar funds, while in Alternatives, over 90% of our funds are in the top half of Cambridge funds, both over the last 5 years. The fourth quarter represents our 24th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows across the platform.

翻至第7頁。我們在傳統和另類投資管道的穩健投資表現推動了資金流入。過去五年，我們超過75%的傳統基金績效位列晨星基金排名前50%，而另類投資方面，超過90%的基金績效位居劍橋基金排名前50%。第四季是我們平台連續第24季實現長期收費淨流入。

I want to reiterate that we have reached a milestone by raising over $250 billion in Alternatives since 2019, surpassing our $225 billion target a year early. This fundraising success has been a result of our continued innovation in developing new strategies as well as our ongoing focus on investment products where we have deep expertise and long-standing track records. Fundraising has been broad-based across geographies and asset classes, with approximately 40% coming from our ultra-high-net-worth relationships.

我想再次強調，自2019年以來，我們在另類投資領域已募集超過2500億美元，提前一年超額完成了2250億美元的目標，這標誌著我們取得了一項里程碑式的成就。此次募資成功得益於我們不斷創新，開發新的投資策略，以及我們持續專注於我們擁有深厚專業知識和長期業績記錄的投資產品。我們的募款活動涵蓋了廣泛的地域和資產類別，其中約40%的資金來自我們與超高淨值客戶的關係。

I am very proud of this achievement. When we were preparing for our first Investor Day 4 years ago, I remember how big of a reach our initial target of $150 billion seemed. To surpass not only that target, but also our increased target of $225 billion one year ahead of schedule demonstrates the power of our platform and the exceptional depth of talent we have in this business.

我為所取得的這項成就感到非常自豪。四年前，當我們籌備首次投資者日時，我還記得當時1,500億美元的初始目標看起來多麼遙不可及。如今，我們不僅超越了這一目標，還提前一年實現了2250億美元的更高目標，這充分展現了我們平台的強大實力以及我們在這個行業中擁有的卓越人才儲備。

Putting all this together on Page 8, you can see how much we've improved the durability of revenues across the firm. On this slide, "baseline revenues" are shown in gray, which represent the sum of the trailing 10-year lows for each of the businesses that are considered "more cyclical" - namely Advisory, Underwriting and Intermediation. We believe this is a very conservative measurement because it's unlikely that every one of these businesses would ever hit a low point all at the same time - In fact, in all the years since we became a public company, it hasn't happened once.

在第8頁，您可以看到我們公司整體收入穩定性的提升幅度。該頁中以灰色顯示的是“基準收入”，代表了我們各項“週期性較強”業務（即諮詢、承保和中介業務）過去十年最低收入的總和。我們認為這是一個非常保守的衡量標準，因為這些業務不太可能同時觸底——事實上，自從我們上市以來，這種情況從未發生過。

In dark blue, you can see the "more durable" revenues from Financing Management and Other Fees as well as Private Banking and Lending, which in aggregate have grown at 13% CAGR since 2019. Taken together, these two components make up over 70% of revenues in 2023. On top of that, we consistently generate upside across different market environments because of our diversified franchise. The increase in the consistent baseline and more durable revenue streams, coupled with the diversification of our scaled franchise and our ability to capture upside, demonstrate the revenue-generating power of our firm.

圖中深藍色部分代表融資管理及其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款業務中較為穩定的收入來源，自2019年以來，這兩項收入合計年複合增長率達13%。預計到2023年，這兩項收入將佔總收入的70%以上。此外，憑藉著多元化的業務組合，我們在不同的市場環境下都能持續創造成長潛力。穩定且更具永續性的收入來源不斷成長，加上我們規模化業務的多元化發展以及把握成長機會的能力，充分展現了我們公司的獲利能力。

In narrowing our strategic focus, our leadership team spent a significant amount of time in 2023 realigning the firm's priorities with our strategic vision, our values and our strengths, which we have highlighted on Page 9. You've heard us talk about many of these elements before. Starting with our strategic objectives:

為了縮小策略重點，我們的領導團隊在2023年投入了大量時間，重新調整公司的優先事項，使其與我們的策略願景、價值觀和優勢相契合，這些內容已在第9頁重點闡述。您之前已經聽過我們談過其中的許多要素。首先是我們的策略目標：

First, to harness One Goldman Sachs to serve our clients with excellence. Second, to run world-class, differentiated, and durable businesses. Third, to invest to operate at scale. As you can see on the page, our execution focus areas for 2024 are aligned with these strategic objectives. Taking one example - investing in our people and culture. The exceptional quality of our people, supported by our unique culture of collaboration and excellence, is critical in solving our clients' most consequential problems -and it is imperative that we continue to invest in them.

首先，我們將充分利用高盛的資源，以卓越的服務回饋客戶。其次，我們將打造世界級、獨樹一幟且永續發展的業務。第三，我們將加大投資，實現規模化營運。如您在頁面上所見，我們2024年的執行重點領域與這些策略目標一致。舉例來說，我們致力於投資人才和企業文化。我們擁有卓越的人才隊伍，他們秉持著獨特的協作與卓越文化，這對於解決客戶面臨的最重要問題至關重要——因此，我們必須持續投資於人才和企業文化。

All in, these objectives and execution focus areas will result in our desired outcomes: to continue to be a trusted adviser to our clients; to be an employer of choice for our people; and to generate mid-teens returns through the cycle and strong total shareholder return.

總而言之，這些目標和執行重點領域將帶來我們期望的結果：繼續成為客戶值得信賴的顧問；成為員工的首選雇主；並在周期內實現兩位數以上的收益和強勁的股東總回報。

With everything we achieved in 2023 coupled with our clear and simplified strategy, we have a much stronger platform for 2024. I feel confident about the future of Goldman Sachs, our ability to continue to serve our clients with excellence, and that we will continue to deliver for shareholders.

憑藉我們在2023年所取得的所有成就，以及我們清晰簡潔的策略，我們為2024年奠定了更強大的基礎。我對高盛的未來充滿信心，相信我們有能力繼續為客戶提供卓越的服務，並繼續為股東創造價值。

I will now turn it over to Denis to cover our financial results.

現在我將把發言權交給丹尼斯，讓他來介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, David. Good morning. Let me start on Page 10 of the presentation. In 2023, we generated net revenues of $46.3 billion, net earnings of $8.5 billion and earnings per share of $22.87. As David highlighted, we made significant progress this year in narrowing our strategic focus. We provide details on the financial impact related to these decisions, as well as the impact of the FDIC special assessment fees on the slide. In aggregate, these items reduced full-year net earnings by $2.8 billion, earnings per share by $8.04 and our ROE by 2.6 percentage points.

謝謝，大衛。早安.我先從簡報的第10頁開始。 2023年，我們實現了463億美元的淨收入、85億美元的淨利和22.87美元的每股盈餘。正如大衛所強調的，今年我們在縮小策略重點方面取得了顯著進展。我們在幻燈片中詳細列出了這些決策帶來的財務影響，以及聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）特別評估費的影響。總體而言，這些項目使全年淨利潤減少了28億美元，每股收益減少了8.04美元，淨資產收益率（ROE）下降了2.6個百分點。

Turning to performance by business, starting on Page 12. Global Banking & Markets generated revenues of $30 billion for the year, down 8% as higher Equities revenues were more than offset by a decline in FICC revenues and Investment Banking Fees versus last year. In the fourth quarter, Investment Banking Fees of $1.7 billion fell 12% year-over-year, driven by a decline in Advisory revenues versus a very strong quarter in 2022.

以下從第12頁開始分析各業務部門的績效。全球銀行及資本市場業務全年營收為300億美元，年減8%，原因是股票業務營收成長被固定收益、外匯及大宗商品業務營收及投資銀行手續費收入年減所抵銷。第四季度，投資銀行手續費收入為17億美元，年減12%，主因是諮詢業務營收較2022年同期強勁成長下降。

For 2023, we maintained our #1 league table position in Announced and Completed M&A as well as in Equity- and Equity-Related Underwriting and ranked second in High-Yield Debt Underwriting. Our backlog rose quarter-on-quarter, driven by a significant increase in Advisory. As David mentioned, we are encouraged by the robust level of dialogues with our corporate client base. And though we're only two weeks into the new year, there have been solid levels of capital markets activity in both the U.S. and Europe.

2023年，我們在已宣布和已完成的併購交易以及股權和股權相關承銷領域繼續保持排名第一的地位，並在高收益債券承銷領域位列第二。我們的積壓訂單環比成長，主要得益於諮詢業務的顯著成長。正如David所提到的，我們與企業客戶群保持著密切的溝通，這令我們倍感鼓舞。儘管新年才過去兩週，但美國和歐洲的資本市場都呈現出穩健的活躍態勢。

FICC net revenues were $2 billion in the quarter, down 24% from strong performance last year amid lower activity in Rates and other macro products. In FICC Financing, revenues rose to a record $739 million. Equities net revenues were $2.6 billion in the quarter, up 26% year-on-year. The year-over-year increase in Intermediation revenues was driven by better results in Derivatives. Financing revenues of $1.1 billion rose year-over-year with continued strength on higher average balances. Across FICC & Equities, Financing revenues rose 10% in 2023, consistent with our priority to grow client financing.

本季固定收益、外匯及大宗商品（FICC）業務淨收入為20億美元，較去年同期強勁表現下降24%，主要原因是利率及其他宏觀產品交易活動減少。 FICC融資業務收入創下7.39億美元的歷史新高。股票業務淨收入為26億美元，年增26%。中介業務收入年增主要得益於衍生性商品業務的良好表現。融資業務收入年增11億美元，平均餘額持續走高。 2023年，FICC及股票業務融資收入預計成長10%，這與我們優先發展客戶融資業務的策略相符。

Moving to Asset & Wealth Management on Page 14. For 2023, revenues of $13.9 billion rose 4% year-over-year as an increase in more durable revenues, including record Management and Other Fees and record Private Banking and Lending revenues offset a decline in Equity Investments revenues and Incentive fees. Fourth quarter Management and Other Fees of $2.4 billion were up 9% year-over-year. Full year Management and Other Fees were $9.5 billion, putting us on track to hit our $10 billion target in 2024, notwithstanding the sale of our PFM business. Equity Investments produced net revenues of $838 million, higher year-over-year driven by modest gains in our public portfolio, versus losses in the fourth quarter of last year. Results in this line item also included a gain of $349 million from the sale of PFM.

請翻至第14頁查看資產與財富管理部分。 2023年，公司營收達139億美元，年增4%，主要得益於管理費及其他費用和私人銀行及貸款業務等較為穩定的收入增長，抵消了股權投資收入和激勵費用的下滑。第四季管理費及其他費用為24億美元，年增9%。全年管理費及其他費用為95億美元，即使出售了個人理財管理（PFM）業務，我們仍有望在2024年實現100億美元的目標。股權投資淨收入為8.38億美元，較去年同期成長，主要得益於公開投資組合的溫和成長，而去年第四季則是虧損。此業績還包括出售PFM業務帶來的3.49億美元收益。

Moving on to Page 15. Total firmwide assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $2.8 trillion, driven by market appreciation as well as strong net inflows across fixed income and alternative assets, and representing our 24th consecutive quarter of long-term fee-based net inflows.

接下來是第 15 頁。受市場升值以及固定收益和另類資產強勁淨流入的推動，公司監管的總資產在本季度末達到創紀錄的 2.8 兆美元，這也是我們連續第 24 個季度實現長期費用淨流入。

Turning to Page 16 on alternatives. Alternative assets under supervision totaled $295 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, driving $571 million in Management and Other Fees for the quarter and $2.1 billion for the year, surpassing our $2 billion target for 2024. Gross third-party fundraising was $32 billion for the quarter and $72 billion for the year. As David mentioned, third party fundraising since our 2020 Investor Day now stands at over $250 billion.

翻到第16頁，了解另類投資的情形。截至第四季末，受監管的另類資產總額為2,950億美元，當季管理費及其他費用收入為5.71億美元，全年累計收入為21億美元，超過了我們2024年設定的20億美元目標。當季第三方募款總額為320億美元，全年累計募款總額為720億美元。正如David所提到的，自2020年投資者日以來，第三方募款總額已超過2,500億美元。

On-balance sheet alternative investments totaled approximately $46 billion, of which roughly $16 billion is related to our historical principal investment portfolio. In the fourth quarter, we reduced this portfolio by over $4 billion, including sales of $3 billion of CIEs across over 40 positions, bringing reductions for the year to $13 billion. We continue to focus on exiting this portfolio over the medium-term - though we don't expect portfolio reductions in 2024 to be at the same pace as in 2023.

資產負債表內的另類投資總額約為460億美元，其中約160億美元與我們的歷史自有投資組合有關。第四季度，我們減持了該投資組合超過40億美元，其中包括出售40多個持股中價值30億美元的CIE（可轉換債券），使全年減持規模達到130億美元。我們將繼續專注於在中期內退出該投資組合，儘管我們預計2024年的減持速度不會與2023年相同。

I'll now turn to Platform Solutions on Page 17. Full-year revenues were $2.4 billion, up 58% versus 2022. Quarterly net revenues of $577 million were up 12% year-over-year on higher Consumer Platforms results amid growth in average credit card balances. As David mentioned, we reached an agreement with General Motors regarding a process to transition their credit card program to another issuer, the impact of which was to move the loans to held-for-sale and release the associated loan loss reserves of approximately $160 million. We have no additional updates regarding our credit card partnerships at this time.

接下來，我將介紹第17頁的平台解決方案部分。全年營收為24億美元，較2022年成長58%。季度淨營收為5.77億美元，年增12%，主要得益於消費者平台業務的業績成長以及信用卡平均餘額的成長。正如David所提到的，我們已與通用汽車就其信用卡項目向另一發卡機構過渡的流程達成協議，該協議的影響在於將相關貸款轉為待售資產，並釋放約1.6億美元的貸款損失準備金。目前，我們暫無關於信用卡合作關係的其他更新資訊。

On Page 18, firmwide Net Interest Income of $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter was down 13% relative to the third quarter, reflecting an increase in funding costs supporting trading activities. Our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $183 billion, modestly higher versus the third quarter reflecting an increase in other collateralized lending, which includes the pools of Signature Bank's capital call facilities we won at auction in October. Our provision for credit losses was $577 million. In relation to our consumer portfolio, provisions were driven by net charge-offs and seasonal balance growth, partially offset by the GM reserve release I mentioned. For our wholesale portfolio, provisions were driven by impairments that were generally in line with the last two quarters with roughly half related to CRE.

第18頁顯示，公司第四季淨利息收入為13億美元，較第三季下降13%，主要反映支持交易活動的融資成本增加。截至季末，我們的貸款組合總額為1830億美元，較第三季度略有增長，主要原因是其他抵押貸款有所增加，其中包括我們在10月份拍賣中贏得的Signature Bank資本召集融資池。我們的信貸損失準備金為5.77億美元。就消費貸款組合而言，準備金主要來自淨沖銷和季節性餘額增長，部分被我之前提到的通用汽車準備金釋放所抵消。就批發貸款組合而言，準備金主要來自減值，與前兩個季度基本一致，其中約一半與商業房地產相關。

Let's turn to expenses on Page 20. Total operating expenses for the year were $34.5 billion. Excluding severance-related costs of $310 million, compensation expense was flat year-over-year, amid solid core performance and as the market for talent remains competitive. As of the fourth quarter, we achieved our goal of $600 million in run rate payroll efficiencies, which allowed us to continue investing in our talent. Quarterly non-compensation expenses were $4.9 billion, and included CIE impairments of $262 million. The year-over-year increase in non-comp expenses was driven by the FDIC special assessment fee of $529 million. Our effective tax rate for 2023 was 20.7%. For 2024, we expect a tax rate of 22% to 23%.

讓我們翻到第20頁查看費用狀況。全年營運總支出為345億美元。剔除3.1億美元的遣散費相關支出後，由於核心業務表現穩健且人才市場競爭依然激烈，薪資支出與上年持平。截至第四季度，我們實現了6億美元的年度薪酬效率目標，這使我們能夠繼續投資於人才培育。季度非薪酬支出為49億美元，其中包括2.62億美元的CIE減損損失。非薪酬支出較去年同期成長主要受聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）5.29億美元的特別評估費的影響。我們2023年的實際稅率為20.7%。我們預計2024年的稅率為22%至23%。

Turning to capital on Slide 21. Our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 14.5% at the end of the fourth quarter under the Standardized approach, 150 basis points above our current capital requirement of 13%. In the fourth quarter, we returned $1.9 billion to shareholders, including common stock repurchases of $1 billion at an average price of $311, and common stock dividends of $922 million. While we expect to remain nimble with respect to capital return given the ongoing uncertainty around the Basel 3 proposed rule, our capital management philosophy is unchanged. We prioritize supporting client deployment opportunities, sustainably growing our dividend, and returning excess to shareholders in the form of buybacks, particularly when valuation levels are attractive.

請參閱第21頁投影片，以了解資本狀況。根據標準化方法，截至第四季末，我們的普通股一級資本充足率為14.5%，比我們目前的13%的資本要求高出150個基點。第四季度，我們向股東返還了19億美元，其中包括以平均每股311美元的價格回購了10億美元的普通股，以及發放了9.22億美元的普通股股息。鑑於巴塞爾協議III擬議規則仍存在不確定性，我們預期在資本回報方面將保持靈活，但我們的資本管理理念不變。我們將優先支持客戶的投資機會，可持續地提高股息，並將盈餘以股票回購的形式返還給股東，尤其是在估值水平具有吸引力的情況下。

In conclusion, we made solid progress on narrowing our strategic focus in 2023 with our execution driving a much stronger platform for 2024. Our best-in-class core businesses are well-positioned to execute on our strategic objectives. We will continue to harness One Goldman Sachs to serve our clients with excellence; run world-class differentiated and durable businesses; and invest to operate our businesses at scale. Additionally, the execution focus areas we've identified for 2024 will help us drive the outcomes of delivering for clients, our people and our shareholders.

總之，我們在2023年策略重點的聚焦方面取得了顯著進展，而高效的執行力也為2024年奠定了更堅實的基礎。我們一流的核心業務已做好充分準備，能夠有效實現我們的策略目標。我們將繼續秉持「一個高盛」的理念，為客戶提供卓越的服務；經營世界一流、差異化且可持續發展的業務；並透過投資實現業務規模化運營。此外，我們為2024年確定的執行重點領域將有助於我們為客戶、員工和股東創造價值。

With that, we'll now open up the line for questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take a moment to compile the Q&A roster. (Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們先來整理問答環節的名單。 （操作說明）首先請Evercore公司的Glenn Schorr發言。

So I wanted to get a mark-to-market. You've been rightfully cautious but optimistic on green shoots becoming reality in Investment Banking. You definitely saw some momentum in the fourth quarter. So curious --- and you mentioned that the pipeline is up quarter-on-quarter, so maybe just differentiate between what you're seeing on the corporate side versus sponsor side and just get the mark-to-market on how you're feeling.

所以我想了解一下市值估值。您一直對投資銀行業復甦的跡象持謹慎但樂觀的態度，這是理所當然的。您確實在第四季度看到了成長勢頭。我很好奇——您提到專案儲備環比成長，所以或許可以區分一下您在企業客戶和投資者方面看到的情況，然後根據市值估值來評估您的感受。

Sure. Sure, Glenn. I mean, just at a base level, I'm pretty optimistic given the way we've got the firm positioned, and there's no question that these capital markets and M&A activity levels have been depressed. As I've said before, I don't think that continues year-on-year-on-year, and we really started to see in the second half of this year, real improvement.

當然，格倫。我的意思是，就基本面而言，鑑於我們公司目前的定位，我相當樂觀。毫無疑問，資本市場和併購活動一直低迷。正如我之前所說，我認為這種情況不會持續下去，而且我們在今年下半年確實開始看到明顯的改善。

As Denis highlighted, the M&A backlog saw a really strong replenishment and improvement in the fourth quarter, and I'll just highlight --I know this is obvious, but I think it's worth stating, we put up $1 billion of M&A revenue. If the backlog is growing, that means we've got to replace the $1 billion that we put up plus then have growth. And so that's a very, very strong replenishment. And I would just say the level of strategic dialogue has definitely increased and we're seeing it across our platform.

正如丹尼斯所強調的那樣，併購訂單在第四季度得到了強勁的補充和改善。我只想強調一點——我知道這顯而易見，但我認為值得一提——我們實現了10億美元的併購收入。如果訂單積壓增加，那就代表我們不僅要彌補先前10億美元的收入，還要成長。因此，這是一個非常強勁的補充。我還想說，戰略對話的水平確實有所提高，我們在各個平台上都能感受到這一點。

I'm encouraged by capital markets activity. I'm not going to say it's running back to 10-year averages right away, but it has materially improved. I do think you're going to see some more meaningful IPOs in 2024, and we are just across debt and equity issuance and see more activity, more engagement. At the end of the day, people had done a lot of funding that takes them out for a period of time, but they've got to start thinking about their capital structures and accept the reality of the market, and we're seeing that come through.

我對資本市場的活躍度感到鼓舞。我不會說它馬上就能恢復到十年平均水平，但它確實有了顯著改善。我認為2024年將會出現更多有意義的IPO，我們剛剛經歷了債務和股權發行，看到了更多活躍度和參與度。歸根結底，人們之前進行了大量融資，這讓他們可以暫時退出市場，但他們必須開始重新審視自己的資本結構，並接受市場的現實，而我們正在看到這種情況的發生。

So, when I look broadly, it feels better. There's a lot going on in the world, and so I think one of our jobs is to always be a risk manager and worry 98% of the time, about the 2% of things that can go wrong. So, we're going to continue to take a cautious view in terms of the overall operation of the firm. But I do think the firm is incredibly well-levered for this pickup and it feels better, is the way I'd frame it.

所以，從整體來看，感覺好多了。世界上發生了很多事情，因此我認為我們的職責之一就是始終做好風險管理，98%的時間都專注於那2%可能出錯的事情。所以，我們將繼續對公司的整體營運保持謹慎的態度。但我確實認為，公司已經為這次業務成長做好了充分的準備，感覺好多了，這就是我的感受。

All right, cool. Maybe just a follow-up on that note. Reducing the on-balance sheet investments, as you mentioned, is an important part of the ROE improvement for us in Asset & Wealth and for Goldman overall. So, with that said, the markets are higher, pipelines better -- how come the balance sheet reduction of on-balance sheet investments might be slower this year, when the intent, I think, is to get rid of all of it at the right price?

好的，明白了。或許可以就此補充一點。正如您所說，減少資產負債表上的投資是資產與財富管理部門以及高盛整體提升淨資產收益率的重要組成部分。既然如此，市場行情上漲，專案儲備也更加充足——既然我認為目標是在合適的價格下全部剝離這些投資，為什麼今年資產負債表上的投資削減速度可能會放緩呢？

Yes. First of all, I think we've made a lot of progress last year. And so, if you look at what we accomplished, I think what we accomplished last year was pretty meaningful, especially given the environment.

是的。首先，我認為我們去年取得了很大進展。所以，如果你回顧我們去年的成就，我認為我們所取得的成就意義重大，尤其是在當前環境下。

One of the things that happened is we pulled some stuff forward that we didn't expect to monetize in 2023 -- into 2023. And so, to be clear, our focus is to get that to 0 as quickly as possible. If you're operating inside this firm and you're operating in that business, you feel enormous focus on reducing that as quickly as possible, but we want to make sure that we manage expectations appropriately. We set a clear target over the next 3 years to get to 0. My guess is we've got a good shot if we execute doing that quicker than that.

其中一項變更是，我們將一些原本預計在2023年無法變現的項目提前到了2023年。因此，需要明確的是，我們的重點是盡快將這些項目的成本降至零。如果你在這家公司工作，並且從事相關業務，你會感受到公司上下都非常重視盡快降低成本，但我們希望確保合理管理各方預期。我們設定了一個明確的目標，在未來三年內將成本降至零。我認為，如果我們能更快完成這項任務，成功的可能性很高。

We'll go next to Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

接下來我們將採訪美國銀行的伊布拉欣·普納瓦拉。

I just wanted to spend some time on the FICC business. So, if I'm looking at the right numbers, it feels like FICC revenues are now back to pre-COVID levels if you go back to 1Q of '19. Maybe if you can unpack it, just looking at Slide 13, it seems like most products were quite weak. Give us some perspective around -- does both the intermediation piece of FICC, does that feel like we are close to trough and unlike seasonality, we should see some improvement in FICC from here? If you can just provide some perspective there.

我想花點時間談談固定收益、貨幣及大宗商品（FICC）業務。如果我沒理解錯的話，FICC 的營收似乎已經恢復到 2019 年第一季的疫情前水準。或許可以詳細分析一下，單看第 13 張投影片，似乎大多數產品的表現都比較疲軟。請您從這個角度分析一下——FICC 的中介業務是否已經接近谷底，而且與季節性因素不同，我們是否應該看到 FICC 業務從現在開始有所好轉？如果您能就此提供一些見解就太好了。

Sure. I mean at a high level, what I would say this quarter, intermediation activity was quiet and particularly in the back half of the quarter, kind of late November and December, clients were quiet. If you look at the whole year, I don't think it's fair -- I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I don't think it's fair to say the whole year is back to '19 levels. The overall activity levels were up and down during the year.

當然。我的意思是，從整體來看，本季中介活動比較清淡，尤其是在季度後半段，也就是11月底和12月，客戶活動比較少。如果縱觀全年，我覺得這麼說並不公平——我手頭上沒有具體數據，但我認為說全年恢復到2019年的水平並不准確。全年的整體活動水準是有起伏的。

We have a big, diversified business. When our clients are active, we execute on it. We continue to grow the Financing revenues, which make it overall more durable, but it was a quiet quarter, particularly the back half in terms of Intermediation. I don't expect it to continue at that pace. I think Denis' comments in the opening, we're seeing more activity in the first few weeks of the year. But we'll watch it, and as you know, that activity, particularly in that segment can move up and down based on what's going on in the macro environment.

我們擁有龐大且多元化的業務。當客戶有業務需求時，我們會積極回應。融資收入持續成長，這使其整體業務更具穩健性，但本季較為平靜，尤其是仲介業務的下半年。我預計這種成長速度不會持續。我認為丹尼斯在開場白中提到的情況屬實，我們預計年初幾週的業務活動會更加活躍。但我們會密切關注，如您所知，業務活動，尤其是在該領域，會受到宏觀環境的影響而波動。

Got it. Maybe just sticking to FICC or maybe both FICC & Equities. On the Financing side, if you don't mind reminding us of the opportunity to grow Financing over the next year or over the medium-term?

明白了。或許可以只專注於固定收益、外匯和大宗商品（FICC），或FICC和股票都投資。關於融資方面，您能否提醒我們一下，未來一年或中期內融資業務有哪些成長機會？

So thanks, Ebrahim. So, we've been clear over the last several years that we see opportunities to grow both FICC & Equities financing, and it's a virtuous activity for us. It dovetails well with our focus on clients and our focus on market share. We have a lot of expertise in this space, and we see a lot of demand from clients for us to deploy both into FICC & Equities. We now have a leading Equities franchise overall. Our Equities Financing business is in a leadership position and at scale. It has grown significantly, and we continue to see opportunities to increase the activities that we do with our existing clients and bring new clients onto the platform.

謝謝Ebrahim。過去幾年，我們一直明確表示，我們看到了固定收益、外匯和大宗商品（FICC）以及股票融資業務的成長機會，這對我們來說是一項良性循環的業務。它與我們以客戶為中心和以市場份額為導向的策略完美契合。我們在這一領域擁有豐富的專業知識，並且我們看到客戶對我們在FICC和股票領域的業務需求旺盛。目前，我們在股票融資領域擁有領先的地位。我們的股票融資業務處於領先地位，並且規模龐大。該業務成長顯著，我們將繼續看到機會，以加強與現有客戶的合作，並吸引新客戶加入我們的平台。

So, we look out into 2024 and 2025. We continue to be very focused. I think there's good opportunities across both FICC & Equities financing in GBM.

所以，我們展望2024年和2025年。我們將繼續保持高度專注。我認為在GBM的固定收益、外匯和大宗商品融資以及股票融資領域都存在著良好的機會。

We'll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS. Mr. Hawken?

接下來我們來訪問瑞銀的布倫南·霍肯先生。霍肯先生？

Sorry about that. So, I was just curious about the impact that we should be thinking about around the potential exit from the Apple relationship. I know it's an ongoing thing, but maybe is there anything that you could provide that might help us think about how that impact could flow through?

抱歉打擾了。我只是好奇，如果我們可能終止與蘋果的合作關係，我們應該考慮哪些影響。我知道這件事還在討論中，但您能否提供一些信息，幫助我們思考這種影響會如何滲透？

Denis said in his comments, we've got no other updates on the credit card partnerships other than what he stated. We continue to work with Apple on a partnership with them to serve our customers and to continue to reduce the drag from the partnership, and we continue to make good progress. And the drag in 2024 will be materially less.

丹尼斯在評論中表示，除了他之前提到的內容之外，我們沒有關於信用卡合作的其他更新資訊。我們正繼續與蘋果合作，以更好地服務我們的客戶，並不斷減少合作帶來的負面影響，目前進展順利。預計到2024年，這種負面影響將顯著降低。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then when you think about the deposit platform, Marcus, that's been a pretty bright spot on the consumer front and definitely seems to have worked well. What has been your views? Or how has the beta on that deposit base played out versus your expectations? And do you have any plans to adjust your thoughts around -- earlier you talked about wanting to be in the top decile of payouts for that product. Is that still the goal? Or has that adjusted as the platform has matured?

好的，謝謝。馬庫斯，說到存款平台，它在消費者方面一直表現出色，而且顯然運作良好。您對此有何看法？或者說，該存款平台的測試版運作與您的預期相比如何？您之前有提到希望該產品的支付率能排進前10%，現在這個目標依然存在嗎？還是隨著平台的成熟，目標有所調整？

Sure, Brennan. Thank you for that question. Our Marcus deposit platform has been a real strategic advantage to us in terms of overall firmwide funding. We did set out a strategy to set our pricing at the higher end of the pricing envelope to maintain, sustain and grow our balances across that platform.

當然可以，布倫南。謝謝你的提問。就公司整體融資而言，我們的Marcus存款平台確實為我們帶來了一項重要的策略優勢。我們制定了一項策略，將定價設定在價格區間的較高水平，以維持、維持並增加我們在該平台上的存款餘額。

We haven't adjusted our strategy at this point. We saw good growth across our various strategic deposit funding channels last year, not just Marcus. Overall, deposits were up over $40 billion on the year. And I would just say, as we move into 2024, we continue to focus on driving growth across the strategic channels and be thoughtful about our overall funding mix.

目前我們尚未調整策略。去年，我們各個策略存款管道均實現了良好成長，不僅是Marcus。整體而言，存款額年增超過400億美元。展望2024年，我們將持續專注於推動各策略通路的成長，並審慎調整整體融資結構。

Thank you. We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

謝謝。接下來我們請富國證券的麥克梅奧發言。

David, you started off the call saying that 2023 was the year of execution. And that's a year when you had an ROE of 8%, and if we throw in some of the charges, it's 10%, and that's not really executing at your 15% or so desired return. So, can you give us a kind of waterfall chart in words on how you get from that core 10% ROE to 15%? And if you could define medium-term?

大衛，你在電話會議開始時說2023年是執行之年。那一年你的淨資產收益率（ROE）是8%，如果算一些費用，是10%，這並沒有達到你預期的15%左右的回報率。那麼，你能否用文字，用瀑布圖的形式，解釋一下你是如何從10%的核心ROE提升到15%的呢？另外，你能否解釋一下「中期」的意思？

Sure. So, I appreciate the question, Mike. And obviously, we're very focused on it. It wasn't an A environment for our core business. In fact, I don't even think it was B environment when investment banking is operating at low levels - that is an impact overall.

當然。感謝你的提問，麥克。顯然，我們非常關注這個問題。這對我們核心業務來說並非有利環境。事實上，當投資銀行業務處於低迷狀態時，我認為連B級環境都算不上——這確實對整體業務造成了影響。

I do think that it's important to look at our core business of banking and markets, which is a very significant portion of the firm and do note that on a fully allocated basis in this environment, which was not a B+ or an A environment, given the investment banking activity, it had a 12% ROE. We continue to believe through the cycle that business is a mid-teens business. And so, I don't think we're going to stay at the level of activities that we've been at, and we have that business positioned very well. And so, you'll get some upside returns there in a better environment.

我認為，專注於我們的核心業務——銀行和市場業務——至關重要，這部分業務在公司中佔據了非常重要的地位。值得注意的是，在目前並非B+或A級市場環境下，考慮到投資銀行業務的活躍程度，即使以完全分配的基準計算，該業務的淨資產收益率也達到了12%。我們始終認為，在整個週期中，該業務的淨資產收益率應在15%左右。因此，我認為我們不會維持目前的業務規模，而且我們已為該業務做好了充分的準備。所以，在市場環境好轉的情況下，您將會獲得更高的回報。

And then secondarily, on Asset & Wealth Management, we continue to reduce the balance sheet. The balance sheet has been a drag on returns, but I think we've been pretty clear that we can drive the Asset & Wealth Management with a smaller balance sheet to mid-teens returns or better with a 25% margin. We're on that journey. We're making progress. I think we'll make very good progress over the next 2 years.

其次，在資產及財富管理方面，我們持續縮減資產負債表。資產負債表一直是收益的拖累因素，但我們已經非常明確地表明，即使資產負債表規模縮小，我們也能將資產及財富管理業務的收益率提升至15%左右甚至更高，利潤率達到25%。我們正在朝著這個目標努力，並且取得了進展。我相信未來兩年我們將會取得非常顯著的進展。

And if you look at those two businesses, that's the vast, vast majority of the firm, and I think they can operate mid-teens. We've significantly reduced the other drags. We got a lot of it behind us in this year. That doesn't mean there won't be anything, but the drag from Platforms in 2024 will be materially reduced from what it's been. And so, I think we're making good progress in the medium-term over the next couple of years, provided that it's a reasonable environment. And so, I think you'll see good progress on the overall positioning of the firm over the next 3 to 5 years.

如果你仔細觀察這兩項業務，你會發現它們佔據了公司絕大部分的份額，我認為它們的營運效率可以達到15%左右。我們已經顯著降低了其他拖累因素。今年我們已經克服了許多困難。這並不意味著未來不會再有任何拖累，但到2024年，平台業務帶來的拖累將比現在大幅減少。因此，我認為在未來幾年，只要環境合理，我們將在中期內取得良好的進展。所以，我認為在未來3到5年內，公司的整體定位將會顯著提升。

And then just to follow up. The other drag you said would be a lot less in 2024 from Platform Solutions - can you dimension that a little bit? And also, as it relates to principal investments, do the higher stock markets help the disposition or not so much?

最後，我想補充一點。您提到平台解決方案帶來的另一個拖累因素在2024年會大幅減少－能否具體說明？另外，就自有資金投資而言，股市上漲對資產配置是有利還是不利？

They absolutely do. I mean, when markets improve, they help the disposition. There's no question. I also -- when you look at the last 2 years, we've had real headwinds in terms of revenue against the balance sheet that - we could have more of that, but on a much smaller balance sheet in 2024, with a better market, you actually might have some benefit to revenue performance. But we're focused on reducing that broadly. You see, you have more transparency now in the platforms as we continue to close on GreenSky, move GM to held-for-sale. And so, you have more transparency on that, and we think the drag will be significantly reduced in 2024. When we're comfortable providing more specific color on that, we will provide it. But small in the overall context of the firm and the firm's performance.

確實如此。我的意思是，當市場好轉時，它們有助於資產處置。這點毋庸置疑。而且——回顧過去兩年，我們在營收方面確實面臨著與資產負債表不符的困境——我們本可以面臨更多挑戰，但考慮到2024年資產負債表規模大幅縮減，市場狀況好轉，營收表現或許會有所提升。但我們目前專注於全面降低這種不利影響。你看，隨著我們繼續完成對GreenSky的收購，並將通用汽車轉為待售資產，平台營運的透明度也隨之提高。因此，這方面的資訊更加透明，我們認為到2024年，這種拖累將會顯著降低。當我們能夠提供更具體的資訊時，我們會這樣做。但就公司整體及其業績而言，這種影響微乎其微。

We'll go back to Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

接下來我們連線JMP Securities的Devin Ryan。

David and Denis, a question just on kind of interplay between a recovery in investment banking versus trading intermediation. And I know there's probably a lot of assumptions that need to go in here. But if you think about kind of the environment with macro conditions settling down, which would likely support investment banking, I'm assuming some areas of trading could also slow down. And then maybe other areas could pick up as well. So would just love to maybe hear a little bit about kind of the puts and takes, kind of what you've seen historically there, if easier? And just really kind of the key question is just whether you can grow investment banking revenues and trading ex-financing at the same time?

David 和 Denis，我想問一個關於投資銀行業務復甦與交易中介業務復甦之間相互作用的問題。我知道這裡面可能有很多假設。但考慮到宏觀經濟環境趨於穩定，這可能會對投資銀行業務構成支撐，我假設某些交易領域的業務也會放緩。然後，其他領域的業務可能會有所成長。所以我想聽聽你們對這方面的分析，以及你們過去觀察到的情況，例如市場波動是否比較容易？關鍵問題是，投資銀行業務的收入能否與交易（不包括融資）業務的收入同時成長？

Yes. So, at a high level, Devin, I appreciate the question. I think we can continue to grow our financing activity given the scale and the size of the market, the way market activity is growing. And we will normalize investment banking activity, and obviously, over time, given our position, and if you assume growth in the world, growth in the market cap of the world, we will continue, as we have for the last 25, 35 years, to grow our investment banking activity.

是的。所以，德文，從宏觀層面來說，我很感謝你的提問。鑑於市場的規模和發展趨勢，我認為我們可以繼續擴大融資業務。我們將逐步恢復投資銀行業務的正常化，而且顯然，隨著時間的推移，鑑於我們的地位，如果假設全球經濟成長，全球市場總市值持續成長，我們將像過去25到35年那樣，繼續發展我們的投資銀行業務。

When there's real disruption in the world, we find that FICC can be a little bit countercyclical in some way, shape or form, but that's not the same as saying a normalization of investment banking activity means a slowdown in intermediation or market activity. I think there's a lot going on in the world. The trajectory of rates -- there's a point of view on rates and inflation, but it's certainly not certain to me. I think people are going to be active as they adjust to the environment. There are debates about how the Fed continues on its quantitative tightening ordoesn't continue on its quantitative tightening.

當世界局勢真正動盪時，我們發現固定收益、外匯和大宗商品（FICC）市場在某種程度上會表現出一定的反週期性，但這並不意味著投資銀行業務的正常化就意味著中介活動或市場活動的放緩。我認為目前世界局勢瞬息萬變。利率走勢－關於利率和通膨，人們持有不同觀點，但對我來說，未來走向並不確定。我認為人們會積極調整自身以適應環境。目前，關於聯準會是否繼續實施量化緊縮政策也存在爭議。

And so, all of this, I think, will continue to play into people being active in markets. So, I do think just at a high level -- look, this is a high level. I think the environment in 2024 feels like it will be better for our mix of businesses than it was in 2023. But I'm not a good predictor, and we're prepared to operate in whatever environment we have to operate in.

因此，我認為所有這些因素都將繼續影響人們在市場上的活躍度。所以，從宏觀層面來看——當然，這只是宏觀層面——我認為2024年的環境對我們的業務組合來說會比2023年更好。但我不是一個好的預測者，我們已做好準備，在任何環境下運作。

Understood. I appreciate that, David. Maybe a quick follow-up for Denis. Just commercial real estate, clearly a big headwind in 2023. I appreciate all the disclosure there, office on balance sheet totaling $1 billion now. So, when you think about just the environment relative to current marks, how do you feel about kind of the pain being behind the company? And just characterize the environment where maybe there still could be material marks? And then just more broadly, kind of expectations for marks as you exit the historical CRE on-balance sheet principal investments?

明白了。謝謝，David。或許可以給Denis一個小問題。商業不動產顯然是2023年面臨的一大阻力。我很感謝你披露的所有信息，目前資產負債表上的辦公大樓投資總額已達10億美元。那麼，考慮到當前的市場環境和估值水平，你覺得公司已經度過了難關嗎？你如何描述一下可能仍然存在重大估值波動的環境？更廣泛地說，當你退出歷史性的資產負債表商業房地產主要投資時，你對估值波動有何預期？

Sure, Devin. Thank you. And as you know, we have a new disclosure the last couple of quarters on CRE, in particular, on the nature of the loans in that sector and then as well as the on-balance sheet, both CRE and office in particular. You can obviously see from those disclosures we've made substantial progress moving down the positions over the course of 2023. I gave disclosure on the number of CIE positions that we moved down recently, and we've made really significant progress. We disclosed on prior calls that our office exposures, from an impairment and marks perspective, we're sitting at roughly 50%.

當然，德文，謝謝。如您所知，過去幾個季度我們發布了關於商業房地產（CRE）的新披露信息，特別是關於該領域貸款的性質，以及資產負債表上的商業地產和辦公大樓相關情況。從這些揭露資訊中，您可以清楚地看到，我們在2023年期間大幅降低了相關持倉。我已揭露了我們近期降低的商業房地產投資（CIE）持倉數量，我們取得了非常顯著的進展。我們在先前的電話會議中揭露，從減損和標記的角度來看，我們的辦公大樓風險敞口約為50%。

So, we think that based on the visibility that we had and the activity that we had over the course of 2023 that portfolio and the broader portfolio for that matter, sits at the right place. As we move into 2024, there should be opportunities for further dispositions, and we'll remain very focused on what the mix of that disposition activity is.

因此，我們認為，基於我們掌握的資訊以及2023年期間的交易活動，該投資組合以及更廣泛的投資組合目前處於合適的位置。展望2024年，應該會有進一步處置資產的機會，我們將繼續密切關注這些處置活動的組合情況。

When David was reviewing our expectations with respect to HPI sell-down on the forward, in addition to moving towards our medium-term target, we're also mindful of what the long-term franchise impact of those sell-down activities are. So, just to give you a sense for why we may have cautioned on pace, we have some meaningful credit exposures where we enjoy a position of incumbency. And for the long-term benefit of the franchise, we very much hope that we will remain as a lender and a supporter of those clients. To exit those positions in advance of a potential refinancing would be to surrender our incumbency position, and so we're being thoughtful so that we can continue to reduce our risk while continuing to grow the third-party fund management business while supporting clients in the process.

當David回顧我們對HPI未來減持的預期時，除了朝著中期目標邁進之外，我們也密切關注這些減持活動對公司長期發展的影響。因此，為了讓您了解我們為何對減持速度有所謹慎，我們持有部分重要的信貸敞口，並擁有既得利益。為了公司的長遠利益，我們非常希望能夠繼續成為貸款人和這些客戶的支持者。在潛在的再融資之前退出這些貸款敞口，就意味著放棄我們的既得利益，因此我們正在謹慎行事，以便在繼續發展第三方基金管理業務的同時，繼續為客戶提供支持，並持續降低風險。

We'll go next to Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們連線摩根士丹利的瑞安肯尼。

So you highlighted in the prepared remarks that Goldman surpassed your fundraising target and Alternatives. So, as we look forward, can you give some more color on your strategy to grow particularly in Private Credit? Any update on how big you expect to get in Private Credit, how it complements your DCM and Wealth franchises and maybe any risks that we should be thinking about would be helpful.

您在事先準備好的演講稿中強調，高盛超額完成了募款目標，另類投資業務也取得了成功。展望未來，您能否進一步闡述貴公司在私募信貸領域的成長策略？能否透露一下貴公司預期私募信貸業務的規模，以及該業務如何與貴公司的債務資本市場和財富管理業務形成互補，並說明我們需要注意的風險？這些都將對我們大有裨益。

Sure. I appreciate the question. It's obviously something, Ryan, we're very, very focused on. We feel good about the fundraising progress we've made. I think when you look forward in 2024, you could expect us to raise another $40 billion to $50 billion in Alternatives. We're obviously very focused on Private Credit. We do operate at scale in Private Credit. We have over $110 billion of Private Credit. But I think the opportunity for us to continue to grow and scale in Private Credit, especially given the way our franchise is positioned and the origination connection we have with our broad banking business gives us a unique platform and a unique competitive advantage. So, we're going to continue to keep this focus.

當然。感謝您的提問。瑞恩，這顯然是我們非常非常關注的領域。我們對目前的融資進展感到滿意。展望2024年，我們可望在另類投資領域再籌集400億至500億美元。我們顯然非常重視私募信貸。我們在私募信貸領域擁有相當規模的業務，私募信貸規模超過1,100億美元。但我認為，鑑於我們目前的市場定位以及與廣泛的銀行業務的緊密聯繫，我們在私募信貸領域擁有獨特的平台和競爭優勢，因此我們有機會繼續發展壯大。所以，我們將繼續專注於此領域。

It doesn't stop because we met our goal. Our goal was meant to frame the opportunity set 3.5 years ago. But you'll see us continue to raise money on a year-to-year basis, and we've got some big funds that we're going to be in the market within 2024, and we'll continue to build the partnerships with that client base. And both myself, John Waldron and the broad team across our Asset Management division are spending a lot of time with the big capital allocators all over the world and continuing to invest in those relationships.

即使我們實現了目標，我們的旅程也不會就此結束。我們設定目標的目的是為了掌握三年半前所設定的機會。但您會看到我們每年都在持續募集資金，我們還有一些規模龐大的基金將在2024年之前投入市場，我們將繼續加強與客戶群的合作關係。我和約翰·沃爾德倫以及我們資產管理部門的全體團隊成員都在與世界各地的大型資本配置機構保持密切聯繫，並持續投入資源以維護這些關係。

And then Basel Endgame comment letters are due today. So, now that you and other G-SIBs have had time to digest the proposal, could you give us an update on how Goldman might plan to adapt if the potential final rule comes through? And how the proposal, as written, might impact your 15% to 17% through the cycle ROTCE target?

巴塞爾協議最終規則的意見徵集函今天截止。既然您和其他全球系統重要性銀行（G-SIBs）已經有時間消化這份提案，能否告知我們高盛如果最終規則得以實施將如何調整？以及，依照目前的提案內容，貴公司設定的周期內15%至17%的ROTCE目標將受到怎樣的影響？

Sure. Well, obviously, today marks the end of the comment period and what I would say is it's certainly not the end of the process. In fact, I would say it's the end of the beginning of the process. And so, we're moving into the next phase and continue to be highly engaged with regulators and the broad set of government stakeholders, given our significant concern with the proposed rules.

當然。顯然，今天標誌著公眾評議期的結束，但我必須說，這絕對不是整個過程的結束。事實上，我認為這只是流程的開始。因此，我們將進入下一階段，並鑑於我們對擬議規則的嚴重關切，繼續與監管機構和廣泛的政府利益相關方保持密切溝通。

You'll see comment letters from us, from our peers. You'll also see many letters from end users, including pension funds, insurance companies, corporates, who are particularly concerned about how this rule could affect their access the capital and their ability to ensure and mitigate risk in their business.

您將看到我們和同行的評論信。您還會看到許多來自終端用戶的信函，包括退休基金、保險公司和企業，他們特別關注這項規則可能會如何影響他們獲取資金以及保障和降低業務風險的能力。

And I think this is really rooted in the fact that the magnitude of these proposed changes would be felt well beyond the banking industry, and also, I think, disadvantages the U.S. from a competitive perspective. So, to be clear, my view is the rule is not proposed appropriately, and it should be withdrawn and reproposed. I don't think speculating on the impact of the rule, as proposed, I think there's a pretty significant view out there that the Fed is listening carefully. They're taking in the feedback, and I don't think there is anyone that's looking at a base case that this is going to move forward as proposed.

我認為這根源在於，這些擬議變更的影響範圍將遠遠超出銀行業，我認為，從競爭角度來看，這將對美國不利。所以，明確地說，我的觀點是這項規則的提出並不恰當，應該撤回並重新提出。我認為現在就猜測這項擬議規則的影響還為時過早，因為目前普遍認為聯準會正在認真聽取各方意見。他們正在吸收回饋，而且我認為沒有人會認為這項規則會按原計劃推進。

We're very flexible with our capital, as I've said before. If the rules put certain changes in place, we'll also adjust businesses or pricing of businesses and certain activity to adapt. I think to speculate as to how we'll talk about this once it's in place before we have any idea what the world is going to look like is premature. But we've got a lot of capital flexibility, and we've proven over time, we can be particularly nimble, and so we'll continue to focus.

正如我之前所說，我們的資金運用非常靈活。如果規則做出某些改變，我們也會相應調整業務、定價以及某些活動以適應變化。在我們對未來世界格局尚不明朗的情況下，就去猜測規則生效後我們將如何應對，我認為為時過早。但我們擁有充足的資金，過去的經驗也證明，我們能夠迅速做出反應，因此我們將繼續專注於此。

We'll go next to Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

接下來我們將採訪傑富瑞的丹‧範農。

As you think about your efficiency targets, what's a reasonable level of growth for non-comp expense as we -- excluding obviously all the one-timers this year? And maybe what the areas of investment are -- priorities when you think about 2024?

在考慮效率目標時，您認為非補償性支出合理的成長水準是多少？當然，今年的所有一次性支出都應排除在外。此外，您認為2024年的投資重點領域為何？

Thanks, Dan. So, the efficiency ratio is something we are laser-focused on. We continue to orient the firm to drive towards our 60% target. You mentioned the impact of selected items. I mean, if you take the impact over the course of 2023, the efficiency ratio would have been more like 65%. That's obviously not where we want it to be, but significantly better than the fully reported number.

謝謝，丹。效率比率是我們目前重點關注的領域。我們將持續調整公司方向，朝著60%的目標邁進。你提到了某些項目的影響。我的意思是，如果把這些影響考慮到2023年全年，效率比率大概會是65%。這顯然不是我們想要達到的水平，但比之前公佈的整體數據要好得多。

We have a number of initiatives across the firm to get after our non-compensation expense. We had a very structured process we implemented once we put out some of the efficiency targets at the end of last year, rigorously marking to market our business plan and our execution against it over the course of the year. There's a -- we have a ton of different categories. We're in the process of reviewing each and every category of our non-compensation expense, benchmarking it, reviewing KPIs, thinking about our processes, incentive structures, governance, things that we can do to continue to drive that expense as efficiently as possible.

為了控制非薪酬支出，我們公司內部進行了多項措施。去年年底，我們制定了一些效率目標，並在此基礎上實施了一套非常規範的流程，嚴格按照市場需求調整我們的業務計劃，並在整個年度執行過程中持續評估計劃的執行情況。非薪酬支出類別繁多，我們正在逐一審查，進行基準測試，評估關鍵績效指標，並思考如何改善我們的流程、激勵機制、管理模式，以及如何才能更有效地控制支出。

We do see an impact of inflation across these activities, and it's for that reason that we need to implement the types of processes to mitigate those impacts and manage it as closely as possible. I think as we look into 2024, if you take a look at the disclosure around selected items, we don't expect those types of activities to repeat and we'll be very, very -- remain very, very focused on maintaining our overall non-comp expense spend.

我們確實看到通貨膨脹對這些活動產生了影響，因此我們需要實施相應的流程來減輕這些影響，並盡可能地加以控制。展望2024年，如果我們看一下特定項目的揭露情況，就會發現我們預期這類活動不會再次發生，我們將始終非常非常專注於控制整體非補償性支出。

And the other component of the efficiency ratio is obviously compensation expense. And you saw that over the course of this year. We maintained our pay-for-performance orientation with respect to how we size that, and you should expect the same on the forward into 2024. That is obviously a performance-based and variable component of our overall expense. There are also a number of other items within our expense base that are variable. Our largest items, both compensation as well as transaction expenses are variable. So we will have to see how the types of activities unfold into 2024 and what the mix of our activities are to ultimately determine where we land on an aggregate expense base and an efficiency ratio.

效率比率的另一個組成部分顯然是薪酬支出。您在今年已經看到了這一點。我們在薪酬規模方面持續秉持績效導向，預計2024年也將如此。這顯然是我們整體支出中基於績效且可變的部分。我們的支出基礎中還有許多其他可變項目。我們最大的支出項目，包括薪酬和交易費用，都是可變的。因此，我們需要觀察2024年各項業務活動的具體情況以及業務組合，才能最終確定我們的總支出基礎和效率比率。

Great. And follow-up on Wealth Management. You disclosed 40% of the alternative inflows since 2019 have come from the Wealth channel. Just curious if that was consistent throughout that time period and whether you view that level of contribution as sustainable. And also, just the economics to Goldman Sachs, how it differs between that 40% in Wealth and the 60% externally. How does that -- what's the difference in revenues?

好的。關於財富管理，我想繼續探討一下。您提到，自 2019 年以來，另類投資流入有 40% 來自財富管理管道。我想了解一下，這一比例是否在整個時期內都保持穩定，以及您是否認為這種貢獻水平能夠持續。另外，就高盛而言，財富管理管道的 40% 和外部管道的 60% 之間在經濟效益上有何區別？這在收入上有何差異？

Well, at a high level, that comment is -- looks over the past 4 years that we've grown our Asset Management business -- Asset & Wealth Management business, and it highlights the Alternatives raising over that period, this initial period of investment, what the mix has been between Wealth, the institutional client base or other channels like third-party wealth, retail, et cetera.

從宏觀層面來看，這篇評論回顧了過去 4 年我們資產管理業務（資產和財富管理業務）的發展情況，重點介紹了在此期間的另類投資融資情況，即最初的投資階段，以及財富管理、機構客戶群或其他渠道（如第三方財富管理、零售等）之間的組合情況。

When you look at our strategy, Dan, we -- if you go back 20 years, most of our fundraising for these activities came from our Private Wealth channel and the percentage of the money we manage was much higher than 40% from Private Wealth. So, as we continue to invest in broad institutional partnerships in the pension community, the sovereign wealth community areas, where historically we had not raised a lot of Alternatives funding, that percentage of Wealth funding will probably decrease, but I'm not going to speculate exactly where it will go.

丹，回顧我們的策略，過去20年，我們這些活動的資金主要來自私人財富管道，而且我們管理的資金中來自私人財富的比例遠高於40%。因此，隨著我們繼續投資於退休金領域和主權財富基金等領域的廣泛機構合作關係（這些領域我們過去很少籌集另類投資資金），來自私人財富的資金比例可能會下降，但我不會妄加猜測具體會如何變化。

At scale, the economics associated with all these Alternatives are extremely attractive. They're attractive in the Private Wealth channel and they're attractive in our institutional partnerships. But as I think you all know, they're not exactly identical. And people that allocate or enter a partnership with you and allocate $10 billion, definitely have a different economic proposition than somebody that's giving you $50 million or $100 million. And that's been consistent in the business for a long, long time.

從規模上看，所有這些另類投資策略的經濟效益都極具吸引力。它們在私人財富管道和機構合作關係中都極具吸引力。但我想大家都知道，它們並非完全相同。那些投資100億美元或與您建立合作關係的人，其經濟效益肯定與那些投資5000萬美元或1億美元的人截然不同。這種情況在業界由來已久。

So, we're continuing to scale the business. We have real margin targets for the business. I think we've got lots of opportunities, and we're still in the early stages of using the platform of Goldman Sachs to cement and invest these broad distribution channels for the benefit of our scale Asset & Wealth Management platform, and I'm confident we'll continue to make good progress.

所以，我們正在繼續擴大業務規模。我們為業務設定了切實可行的利潤率目標。我認為我們有很多機會，目前我們仍處於利用高盛平台鞏固和投資這些廣泛的分銷管道的早期階段，以惠及我們規模化的資產和財富管理平台，我相信我們將繼續取得良好進展。

Thank you. We'll go next to Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。接下來我們連線德意志銀行的馬特‧奧康納。

There's obviously all the uncertainty on the capital as was discussed earlier. But just in the near term, how do you think about top allocation? You're obviously continuing to lean into financing, which is capital intensive, depending on how banking and if banking comes back, that can consume capital. And then just touch on interest in bolt-on deals and then obviously, ending on buybacks which were pretty solid in '23.

如同先前討論過的，資本方面顯然存在諸多不確定性。但就短期而言，您如何看待優先資產配置？您顯然會繼續專注於融資，而融資是資本密集的，這取決於銀行業的發展狀況，以及銀行業是否復甦，這可能會消耗大量資金。接下來，我想談談對補充交易的興趣，最後當然還有股票回購，2023年的股票回購表現相當穩健。

I'll start and Denis can add some comments. We've always said that when there's activity to support our clients, that's our primary focus on where we can allocate capital. We've increased the amount of capital allocated to our franchise, our client franchises over the course of the last 5 years. And I think one of the reasons why our big broad Global Banking & Markets franchise has performed, on a relative basis in different environments, the way it's performed is we've been very, very focused on making sure we have the capital and the financial resources to serve our client base well.

我先說，丹尼斯可以補充一些內容。我們一直強調，當需要支援客戶業務時，我們會優先考慮將資金投入這方面。過去五年，我們增加了對自有業務和客戶業務的資金投資。我認為，我們龐大的全球銀行及資本市場業務之所以能在不同的市場環境下保持相對優異的表現，原因之一在於我們始終非常注重確保擁有充足的資金和財務資源，從而更好地服務我們的客戶群。

Where we see opportunities, we will continue to deploy capital there, and that's in our broad capital planning program. We do generate a lot of capital from earnings. And to the degree that we don't see opportunities to deploy it with our clients, we will return it to shareholders. At the moment, we're taking a more conservative posture around that, just given some of the uncertainty around Basel III Endgame, although, again, I think that's going to continue to evolve. And I also think we have a long track record of being very, very nimble with our ability to deploy.

我們會繼續在發現機會的地方投入資金，這符合我們整體的資本規劃計畫。我們透過獲利累積了大量資金。如果這些資金沒有機會用於服務客戶，我們會將其返還給股東。目前，鑑於巴塞爾協議III最終方案存在一些不確定性，我們在這方面採取了更保守的態度，但我認為情況還會繼續變化。而且，我認為我們一直以來都擁有非常靈活的資金運用能力。

So, we're going to continue to focus on making sure we've got the right resources to serve our clients. And as we generate capital and we have confidence in our capital position, we'll return capital to shareholders. And we've been very focused, as you've seen on growing the dividend, and we plan to continue to do that.

因此，我們將繼續專注於確保擁有充足的資源來服務客戶。隨著資本的累積和我們對自身資本狀況的信心增強，我們將向股東返還資本。如您所見，我們一直非常重視提高股息，並計劃繼續這樣做。

And then just separately, following up on the exit of legacy on-balance sheet principal investment, is there an expense reduction opportunity as those investments in some of the infrastructure goes away over time?

此外，隨著資產負債表上遺留主要投資的退出，隨著某些基礎設施投資的逐步消失，是否有降低成本的機會？

There's an operating leverage story, which is one of the reasons why the margin in our Asset & Wealth Management business will continue to improve. When we were running an on-balance sheet business with lots and lots and lots of on-balance sheet positions, the number of people that you need to manage those positions and serve those positions creates a business that scales differently than a traditional fund management business that you would see on someone else's Alternative platform.

這其中存在著一個營運槓桿效應，這也是我們資產及財富管理業務利潤率將持續提升的原因之一。當我們經營的是一家資產負債表內業務，擁有大量資產負債表內持股時，管理和維護這些持倉所需的人員數量，使得我們的業務規模與傳統基金管理業務（例如其他另類投資平台上的業務）截然不同。

And so, we're early in the journey. I'll just give a simple example. We went out last year, 1.5 years ago and raised our first growth equity fund. We used to do that business on-balance sheet. We have lots and lots of positions and therefore, a very, very broad team to service that. We raised our first fund. We needed a smaller team to manage that fund, but when you go and you raise your second fund, you don't need to increase the scale of the team. And so, there's real operating leverage, and that's part of our margin improvement story in Asset & Wealth Management over time.

所以，我們還在起步階段。我舉個簡單的例子。去年，也就是一年半前，我們募集了第一支成長型股權基金。我們以前都是在資產負債表內開展這項業務。我們持有大量的投資頭寸，因此需要一個非常龐大的團隊來服務這些頭寸。我們募集了第一支基金。當時我們只需要一個規模較小的團隊來管理這支基金，但當你募集第二支基金時，就不需要擴大團隊規模了。因此，這其中存在著真正的營運槓桿效應，這也是我們資產與財富管理業務利潤率持續提升的原因之一。

So, the answer is yes. I don't want to overstate this because it's not a massive part of the story, but it is a place we have some operating leverage and improvement as we continue to move from balance sheet into fund firm.

所以，答案是肯定的。我不想過度強調這一點，因為它並非故事的核心，但隨著我們不斷從資產負債表公司轉型為基金公司，這方面我們確實擁有一些營運槓桿和改進空間。

We'll go next to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來我們將採訪 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

David, in your prepared remarks, David, you were talking about -- I think it was Slide 5 or 6, but about the success in growing the relationships with those top 100 FICC & Equities clients, and you identified that the FICC & Equities financing contributed to that success. And that's been a real hallmark for you guys over the last 2 or 3 years, the growth in that business. Can you dig down first and share with us what has attributed to the success? Is it the capital you put into that business? The hiring of additional folks or people in the business? And as well as competition, has the competition been more challenged than some of your competitors? The old Credit Suisse, of course, is no longer around. But if you could just give us a little more color on what's driving that success?

大衛，在你事先準備好的發言稿中，你提到——我記得是在第五或第六張幻燈片裡——你們成功地拓展了與前100家固定收益、外匯及股票客戶的關係，並且你指出固定收益、外匯及股票融資業務對你們的成功起到了推動作用。過去兩三年，這項業務的成長一直是你們的一大亮點。能否先深入分析一下，分享一下你們成功的秘訣是什麼？是你們投入這項業務的資金嗎？還是因為你們僱用了更多的人？除了競爭之外，你們面臨的挑戰是否比其他一些競爭對手更大？當然，以前的瑞士信貸已經不存在了。但你能否更詳細地解釋一下推動你們成功的因素？

Sure, Gerard. At a high level, I'd point to a couple of things, but I'd start with the fact that business is a scaled business, and we happen to be in the privileged position of being one of a handful of firms that really does operate those businesses at scale. And I think that's just important to the baseline. But I think there are a handful of things that we've done well. First, One GS and One GS ethos. If you go back historically, we operated these businesses much more in silos with much less coordination across broad client experience, and clients would come into the firm in different places and get different experiences. And we spent a lot of time - and this goes back to 2019 - really thinking about how do these clients experience the firm, and we went out, we talked to them, we listened to their feedback. They really wanted to deal with the firm as a partner, one partner. I think we've made, through One GS and that ethos, real progress in dealing with these very large clients in this business in an integrated approach that's improved their experience. And because it's improved their experience, they feel more partner-like with us, and therefore, that's improved our wallet share.

當然，杰拉德。從宏觀層面來說，我想指出幾點，但首先，業務本身就是規模化的，而我們恰好處於一個得天獨厚的優勢，成為少數幾家真正能夠大規模運營業務的公司之一。我認為這是至關重要的基礎。此外，我認為我們在某些​​方面也做得很好。首先是「一個高盛」的理念和精神。回顧過去，我們經營這些業務的方式更加各自為政，缺乏對客戶體驗的協調，客戶會從不同的管道進入公司，獲得不同的體驗。我們投入了大量時間——這可以追溯到2019年——認真思考客戶如何體驗公司，我們走出去，與他們交談，傾聽他們的回饋。他們真心希望與公司一位合夥人直接對接。我認為，透過「一個高盛」及其理念，我們在以整合的方式服務這些大型客戶方面取得了真正的進步，從而改善了他們的體驗。正因為體驗的改善，他們感覺與我們更像是合作夥伴，因此，我們的市場佔有率也隨之提升。

Secondarily, we become a much bigger financer of their activities. And when you finance their activities, you get rewarded in other ways through the ecosystem. And number three, we've also tried to really take the same way we have with investment banking clients for a long view, a very long-term approach to transacting with them. They need our help sometimes with things that aren't that economically attractive - we want to be there. If you do that, you do that consistently, you wind up getting opportunities that are more attractive.

其次，我們成為了他們活動的重要資金來源。而當你為他們的活動提供資金時，你也會透過整個生態系統獲得其他方面的回報。第三，我們也一直努力像對待投資銀行客戶一樣，以長遠的眼光看待與他們的交易。他們有時需要我們幫忙處理一些經濟效益並不高的事情——我們希望能夠參與其中。如果你堅持這樣做，最終你會獲得更具吸引力的機會。

And so, I think those three things, combined with our scaled platform, have really helped us when we look at our wallet shares. We continue to spend a lot of time, John and I spend a lot of time and Denis too, talking to these clients in addition to the people running the business, asking for their feedback. And as we take that feedback, we'll continue to make adjustments to make sure we can serve them with real excellence. And as you saw from the presentation that we put up, one of the things that we're really focused on is how our One GS operating ethos allows us to serve our clients with excellence and distinction. It's a big, big tenet of what we're trying to do.

因此，我認為這三點，再加上我們規模化的平台，確實對我們提升客戶份額起到了很大的幫助。我們（我和約翰，還有丹尼斯）一直投入大量時間與客戶以及公司營運人員溝通，徵求他們的回饋意見。我們會根據這些回饋不斷調整，確保能夠為客戶提供卓越的服務。正如您從我們展示的簡報中所看到的，我們重點關注的一點是，如何透過「一個高盛」的營運理念，為客戶提供卓越且與眾不同的服務。這是我們努力的核心原則之一。

Very good. And then I know you've talked about the pipelines and your comments about what we might be able to see in ECM and other areas this year. Can you also give us a little flavor on what parts of the -- since you're obviously a global force, what parts of the globe are you seeing the best potential? Is it the Americas? Is it Europe? Or is it Asia?

非常好。我知道您之前談到了管道建設，以及您對今年ECM和其他領域可能出現的情況的看法。鑑於您顯然是一家全球性企業，您能否也簡單介紹一下您認為全球哪些地區最具潛力？是美洲？歐洲？還是亞洲？

Well, it's scale. The Americas is the biggest part of the activity level, and just given the resilience of the U.S. economy, I think you've seen a material pickup there proportionally that's broader than other places. But we are seeing more activity across Europe, particularly strategic dialogue.

嗯，關鍵在於規模。美洲地區的經濟活動規模最大，而且鑑於美國經濟的韌性，我認為那裡的經濟復甦幅度比其他地區更大。但我們也看到歐洲的經濟活動更加活躍，尤其是在戰略對話方面。

I'd say the one place where I think is slower, obviously, is in Asia with respect to China. And just given the nature of economic activity there and where things are positioned, that still seems slower, both the M&A side and the capital market side. But those are comments that I'd make it a high level, Gerard.

我認為，最明顯而言，亞洲（尤其是中國）的經濟成長明顯放緩。考慮到亞洲經濟活動的性質和現狀，無論是併購或資本市場，成長速度都顯得較慢。不過，這些只是我的一些粗略看法，傑拉德。

Thank you. Always appreciate the insights. Thank you.

謝謝。非常感謝您的真知灼見。謝謝。

We'll take our next question from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 所提出的問題。

So, I wanted to ask a couple of questions about comp leverage and operating margins. And maybe just to start off, Denis, you noted the adjusted efficiency ratio set at 65% versus the reported figure in the mid-70s. When we try to adjust for various items, at least in the public disclosure, it looks like the core adjusted efficiency is somewhere in the upper 60s. And I was hoping you can maybe just help us reconcile some of the different items to get down to that 65% figure and whether that's the appropriate jumping off point that we should be thinking about as we look ahead to '24?

所以，我想問幾個關於薪資槓桿和營業利益率的問題。首先，丹尼斯，你提到調整後的效率比率設定為65%，而公佈的數據在70%左右。當我們嘗試調整各種因素​​後（至少在公開揭露的數據中），核心調整後效率比率似乎在60%以上。我希望你能幫我們分析一下，為什麼最終得出65%這個數字，以及這個數字是否是我們展望2024年時應該考慮的合適起點？

So Steven, I'd say, I think the 65% is a good jumping off point for 2024. And as the business evolves from there, as I indicated on a prior question, we have to ultimately be mindful of the mix of the business that comes into the firm. Certain of our activities attract different degrees of transaction-based and other expenses as we prosecute those activities. And so, we'll have to be mindful of what the ultimate business mix looks like. We'll have to be mindful, obviously, what the ultimate scale and magnitude of the activities is as we roll forward in 2024.

所以史蒂文，我認為65%是2024年的一個好起點。正如我在先前的問題中提到的，隨著業務的發展，我們最終必須專注於公司業務的組合組成。我們所進行的某些活動會產生不同程度的交易費用和其他費用。因此，我們必須專注於最終的業務組合。顯然，隨著2024年的推進，我們也必須關注各項活動的最終規模和範圍。

I think on the compensation side of the equation, you noticed our disclosure - that was roughly flat on a year-over-year basis. Our revenues net of PCL in the year were up 1%, and our compensation roughly flat. We observed that we thought that the performance of our core businesses was solid and that we had a year of significant execution activity, and we want to make sure that we're in a position that we have the talent in place to deliver for clients as we look forward into '24 with a bit more optimism for what types of activity we could see.

我認為，就薪酬方面而言，您已經注意到我們的披露——與上年相比基本持平。我們本年度扣除PCL後的淨收入成長了1%，而薪資也基本持平。我們認為核心業務表現穩健，並且在過去一年中開展了大量的執行活動。展望2024年，我們對未來的業務發展充滿信心，並希望確保我們有足夠的人才來為客戶提供服務。

In terms of trying to get a handle on the selected items and the degree of repeat potential, most of those are pretty discrete items associated with the exit of activities and the one-off FDIC special assessment. The one area we'll continue to manage carefully is on CIEs as we continue to manage down the balance sheet as we've discussed.

就把握所選項目及其重複發生的可能性而言，其中大部分都是與業務退出和一次性聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）特別評估相關的獨立項目。我們將繼續密切關注持續經營實體（CIE），正如我們之前討論過的，因為我們將繼續精簡資產負債表。

That's great. And just for a follow-up relating to the comments you just made, Denis, on comp leverage, specifically. It looks like the expectation is for revenues to grow about $4 billion this year for the Street. The comp dollars are expected to increase only about $600 million. You do have a good track record of delivering incremental operating leverage or strong marginal margins. But I just wanted to get a sense, given you were alluding to the fact that you're going to pay for talent and you're going to compensate people appropriately that execute well on the platform, how we should be thinking about incremental comp leverage, is an 85% comp margin a realistic expectation given where the revenue growth is ultimately going to come from?

太好了。丹尼斯，關於你剛才提到的薪資槓桿，我想再補充一點。華爾街預計今年營收將成長約40億美元，而薪資支出預計只會增加約6億美元。你們在提升營運槓桿或實現強勁的邊際利潤率方面確實有著良好的記錄。但我想了解的是，鑑於你提到你們會為人才付費，並且會為在平台上表現出色的人提供適當的報酬，我們應該如何看待薪酬槓桿的提升？考慮到營收成長的最終來源，85%的薪資利潤率是否是一個現實的預期？

Steven, I'll make a comment. If David wants to make another one, he can as well. We're very focused on driving operating leverage across the platform. We're also focused on driving scale across the platform. And meanwhile, we're staying true to our mantra of pay-for-performance. It's what our people expect, and it's one of the things that enables us to attract such exceptional talent and deliver excellence for our clients.

史蒂文，我先說幾句。如果大衛想再補充一點，也可以。我們目前非常注重提升整個平台的營運效率，同時也致力於擴大平台的規模。同時，我們始終堅持按績效付費的理念。這是我們員工的期望，也是我們能夠吸引如此傑出的人才並為客戶提供卓越服務的關鍵因素之一。

The ultimate compensation payout relative to the results in 2024 really is going to come down to what the ultimate mix of those activities are and what we feel is the appropriate amount of compensation to reflect the performance of the team, being mindful of talent retention, service of clients as well as driving operating leverage and delivering results for shareholders.

2024 年的最終薪酬支付額將取決於這些活動的最終組合，以及我們認為能夠反映團隊表現的適當薪酬數額，同時還要考慮到人才保留、客戶服務、提高營運槓桿以及為股東創造業績。

We'll go next to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來我們連線富國證券的麥克梅奧。

I was just wondering what you're going to do about the Lead Independent Director, who I guess is no longer on your Board, Bayo. I guess, his firm got purchased and now you need to get a new Lead Director. Is that someone from the Board currently, someone from outside Goldman Sachs? What type of person is the Board looking for?

我只是想知道您打算如何處理首席獨立董事的職位，我猜他已經不在董事會了，Bayo。我猜他的公司被收購了，所以現在您需要找一位新的首席董事。這個人選是現任董事會成員，還是高盛以外的人？董事會希望找到什麼樣的人？

So I appreciate the question, Mike. As you highlight, at the end of last week, Bayo sold his business to BlackRock. Bayo still is the Lead Director. That deal won't close until sometime in the third or fourth quarter. Bayo is the Lead Director. We have a governance process in place. Our Board has met and at the appropriate time, we'll make announcement as to the transition.

麥克，我很感謝你的提問。正如你所指出的，上週末，Bayo 將他的公司賣給了貝萊德。 Bayo 仍然是首席董事。這筆交易要到第三季或第四季才能完成。 Bayo 仍然是首席董事。我們已經制定了相應的治理流程。董事會已經召開會議，我們將在適當的時候發佈過渡公告。

But at this point, other than the fact that because of the sale, it will create a transition, I have nothing more to say other than Bayo is still the Lead Director, and we'll manage the transition in an orderly process and no surprises.

但目前，除了由於此次出售將會帶來過渡之外，我沒有什麼要補充的，Bayo 仍然是首席總監，我們將以有序的方式完成過渡，不會有任何意外發生。

Okay. So you would consider people outside of Goldman Sachs currently for that or?

好的。那麼，您目前也會考慮高盛以外的人選嗎？

Well, we're always adding people to our Board, Mike. But I'm not going to make comments. I'm not going to make forward comments about our governance process and how our Board looks at this. At the time that the Board takes action, we announce a clear transition, I'll be happy to answer questions and talk about it.

嗯，麥克，我們一直在擴充董事會成員。但我不會就此事發表評論。我不會提前透露任何關於我們治理流程以及董事會如何看待此事的資訊。等到董事會採取行動，當我們宣布明確的過渡方案時，我很樂意回答問題並進行討論。

At this time, there are no additional questions in queue. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes The Goldman Sachs Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect

目前沒有其他問題需要提問。女士們、先生們，高盛2023年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。