德州儀器 (TXN) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收 55 億美元,季增 13%、年增 23%;EPS 2.14 美元,含 0.05 美元稅務利益超預期
    • Q3 指引:營收 56.5~61.5 億美元,EPS 2.23~2.57 美元,優於季節性,反映需求強勁
    • 盤後市場反應未提及;同業對比未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 工業、數據中心、汽車三大市場需求強勁且廣泛,帶動營收成長
      • 數據中心營收年增 1 倍,受惠於 AI、能源基礎建設等新應用
      • 汽車市場由中國 EV/Hybrid 帶動,客戶庫存偏低,需求回補明顯
      • 公司具備充足產能與庫存,能快速回應客戶短期需求,搶占市佔
    • 風險:
      • 個人電子產品(PE)市場年增持平,Q3 雖有季節性但成長動能低於往年
      • 產業庫存去化雖已結束,但工業市場距 2022 年高點仍有 5~6%落差,復甦進度需觀察
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Analog 營收:年增 26%,季增(未明確數字)
    • Embedded Processing 營收:年增 16%,季增(未明確數字)
    • Other 事業群:年減 2%
    • 工業市場:年增約 30%,季增約 10%
    • 汽車市場:年增中十位數(mid-teens),季增高個位數
    • 數據中心:年增 100%,季增約 20%
    • 個人電子:年增持平,季增高個位數
    • 通訊設備:年增、季增皆有成長(未明確數字)
    • 毛利率:Q2 為 61%,季增 340bps
    • 營業利益率:Q2 為 42%,年增 48%
    • 自由現金流(TTM):65 億美元,含 16 億美元 CHIPS Act 補助
  4. 財務預測
    • Q3 營收預估 56.5~61.5 億美元
    • Q3 EPS 預估 2.23~2.57 美元
    • 2026 年 CapEx 預估維持 20~30 億美元區間,全年可能落在中高端
    • Q3 毛利率未明確指引,管理層預期應略高於 Q2
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q3 及下半年需求動能是否延續?汽車市場成長驅動為何?
      A: 需求強勁且更廣泛,工業、數據中心、汽車皆有貢獻。汽車由中國 EV/Hybrid 帶動,客戶庫存偏低,需求回補明顯,預期進入新一輪廣泛成長週期。
    • Q: 下半年價格調漲進度?對 Analog/Embedded 兩大事業群影響?
      A: 上半年價格持平,已開始執行漲價,主要以客戶個別協商為主,Q3 起逐步反映,部分客戶要到 Q4 或明年才調整。Analog 先受惠,Embedded 明年較明顯。
    • Q: 工廠產能利用率與庫存展望?
      A: Q2 產能利用率已提升,Q3 會依需求調整。現有充足 cleanroom 空間可彈性擴產,庫存金額 Q2 小幅下降,未來視需求調整。
    • Q: 數據中心業務成長展望及高壓架構(800V)對競爭力影響?
      A: 數據中心需求強勁,800V 架構將帶動更多電源轉換階段,Analog/Embedded 產品滲透率提升,長期看好 TAM 擴大。
    • Q: 2026 年 CapEx 與 ITC(投資稅額抵減)補助展望?
      A: 全年 CapEx 預估維持 20~30 億美元,視需求可能偏中高端。ITC 補助未來會較波動,因部分設備投資在海外組裝測試廠不適用美國 ITC。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Welcome to the Texas Instruments second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm Mike Beckman, head of Investor Relations.

    歡迎參加德州儀器 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資人關係主管 Mike Beckman。

  • For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

    若各位錯過了新聞稿,可至我們的網站 ti.com/ir 查閱。本次電話會議將透過網路進行即時直播,並可透過我們的網站收聽。此外,今天的電話會議也會錄音,並將於我們網站提供重播。

  • This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

    本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,涉及風險與不確定性,可能導致德州儀器(TI)的實際結果與管理層目前預期出現重大差異。我們建議您查閱今日發布之財報新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述的提示,以及 TI 最新的 SEC 申報文件,以取得更完整的說明。

  • Today, I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer Haviv Ilan and our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi. Also with us today is Julie Knecht, who will become our chief financial officer on August 1. Julie has been with TI for more than 25 years and has held a number of finance and accounting roles, most recently serving as chief accounting officer since 2021.

    今天與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Haviv Ilan 與財務長 Rafael Lizardi。另外,Julie Knecht 也在場,她將於 8 月 1 日起出任我們的財務長。Julie 在 TI 服務超過 25 年,曾擔任多項財務與會計職務,最近自 2021 年起擔任首席會計長。

  • As you know, Rafael, who has been our CFO for nearly a decade, plans to retire at the end of August. Rafael's focus on disciplined capital allocation, including our investments in 300mm manufacturing capacity, and commitment to return all free cash flow to shareholders have positioned TI for continued long-term growth and value creation.

    如各位所知,Rafael 擔任我們的財務長近十年,計畫於 8 月底退休。Rafael 對嚴謹資本配置的專注(包括我們對 300mm 製造產能的投資),以及將所有自由現金流回饋股東的承諾,使 TI 得以持續實現長期成長與價值創造。

  • As this is Rafael's final earnings call, I want to thank him personally for all of his contributions to TI. I'm sure you will join me in congratulating both Rafael and Julie.

    由於這是 Rafael 最後一次財報電話會議,我想親自感謝他對 TI 的所有貢獻。我相信各位也會與我一同恭賀 Rafael 與 Julie。

  • With that, today we'll provide the following updates. First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, he will provide insight into second quarter revenue results with some details on what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and give an update on capital management, as well as share the guidance for third quarter 2026.

    接下來,今天我們將提供以下更新。首先,Haviv 將先簡要概述本季表現。接著,他將就第二季營收結果提供洞見,並說明我們在各終端市場的觀察。最後,Rafael 將說明財務結果並更新資本管理情況,同時分享 2026 年第三季的財測指引。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

    接下來我把時間交給 Haviv。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mike.

    謝謝你,Mike。

  • Let me start with a quick overview of the second quarter. Revenue was $5.5 billion, an increase of 13% sequentially and an increase of 23% year over year. Analog and Embedded Processing both grew sequentially and year on year. Analog revenue grew 26% year on year, and Embedded Processing grew 16%. Our “Other” segment declined 2% from the year-ago quarter.

    我先快速概述第二季表現。營收為 55 億美元,季增 13%,年增 23%。類比與嵌入式處理兩大業務皆呈現季增與年增。類比營收年增 26%,嵌入式處理年增 16%。我們的「其他」部門較去年同期下滑 2%。

  • Let me provide a few comments about the current market environment. In the second quarter, revenue came in above the range, as we saw continued growth in industrial and data center, in addition to accelerated growth in automotive.

    我補充幾點關於目前市場環境的看法。第二季營收高於區間上緣,因為我們看到工業與資料中心持續成長,此外汽車領域的成長也加速。

  • Our investments in inventory and capacity are serving us well, which allows us to support our customers during this time of increased demand. We are prepared with capacity and have cleanroom space available and are well positioned to support continued growth.

    我們在庫存與產能方面的投資正發揮良好效果,使我們能在需求增加期間支援客戶。我們已備妥產能,並有可用的無塵室空間,具備良好條件以支援持續成長。

  • Now I'll share some additional insights into second-quarter revenue by end market.

    接下來我將分享按終端市場劃分的第二季營收更多洞見。

  • First, industrial increased around 30% year on year and was up about 10% sequentially, growing broadly across sectors and regions.

    首先,工業市場年增約 30%,季增約 10%,在各子領域與各地區皆呈現廣泛成長。

  • Automotive increased mid-teens year on year and increased upper-single digits sequentially.

    汽車市場年增約中段十位數百分比,季增高個位數百分比。

  • Data center doubled year on year and grew around 20% sequentially.

    資料中心年增一倍,季增約 20%。

  • Personal electronics was flat year on year and grew upper-single digits sequentially.

    個人電子產品年增持平,季增高個位數百分比。

  • And lastly, communications equipment grew both year on year and sequentially.

    最後,通訊設備在年增與季增方面皆有成長。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Rafael to review profitability and capital management.

    接下來我把時間交給 Rafael,請他回顧獲利能力與資本管理。

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon everyone.

    謝謝你,Haviv,各位下午好。

  • As Haviv mentioned, second quarter revenue was $5.5 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $3.4 billion, or 61% of revenue. Sequentially, gross profit margin increased 340 basis points.

    如 Haviv 所提到,第二季營收為 55 億美元。本季毛利為 34 億美元,占營收 61%。就季比而言,毛利率提升 340 個基點。

  • Operating expenses in the quarter were $1 billion, about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.9 billion, or 20% of revenue.

    本季營業費用為 10 億美元,約符合預期。以過去 12 個月計,營業費用為 39 億美元,占營收 20%。

  • Operating profit was $2.3 billion in the quarter, or 42% of revenue, and it was up 48% from the year-ago quarter.

    本季營業利益為 23 億美元,占營收 42%,較去年同期成長 48%。

  • Net income in the quarter was $2 billion, or $2.14 per share. Earnings per share included a 5-cent benefit not in our original guidance, due to discrete tax benefits.

    本季淨利為 20 億美元,或每股 2.14 美元。每股盈餘包含一項未納入原先指引的 0.05 美元正面影響,係因一次性稅務利益所致。

  • Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $2.7 billion in the quarter and $8.7 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $514 million in the quarter and $3.3 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $6.5 billion, up from $1.8 billion in the second quarter of 2025 and continuing to trend up as growth returns. Free cash flow in the trailing 12 months includes $1.6 billion of CHIPS Act incentives, which includes both the investment tax credit and direct funding. In second quarter, we received $549 million of ITC-related payments for qualifying capital expenditures.

    接下來我評論資本管理成果,先從現金創造能力談起。本季營運活動現金流為 27 億美元;以過去 12 個月計為 87 億美元。本季資本支出為 5.14 億美元;過去 12 個月合計為 33 億美元。以過去 12 個月計,自由現金流為 65 億美元,高於 2025 年第二季的 18 億美元,並隨著成長回歸而持續上升。過去 12 個月的自由現金流包含 16 億美元的《CHIPS 法案》獎勵,涵蓋投資稅額抵免與直接補助資金。第二季我們收到 5.49 億美元與 ITC 相關的款項,係針對符合資格的資本支出。

  • In the quarter, we paid $1.3 billion in dividends. In total, we returned $5.8 billion to our owners in the past 12 months.

    本季我們支付 13 億美元股利。合計而言,過去 12 個月我們向股東回饋 58 億美元。

  • Our balance sheet remains strong with $7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter. Total debt outstanding is $14 billion with a weighted average coupon of 4%.

    截至第二季末,我們的資產負債表仍然穩健,現金與短期投資為 70 億美元。未償還總債務為 140 億美元,加權平均票面利率為 4%。

  • Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.6 billion, down $90 million from the prior quarter, and days were 196, down 13 days sequentially.

    季末庫存為 46 億美元,較前一季減少 9,000 萬美元;庫存天數為 196 天,季減 13 天。

  • Turning to our outlook for the third quarter, we expect TI's revenue in the range of $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $2.23 to $2.57. We expect our effective tax rate to be about 13% in the third quarter.

    談到第三季展望,我們預期 TI 營收介於 56.5 億至 61.5 億美元之間,每股盈餘介於 2.23 至 2.57 美元之間。我們預期第三季有效稅率約為 13%。

  • In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

    最後,我們將持續聚焦於能在長期創造價值的領域。我們將持續投資於我們的競爭優勢,包括製造與技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路觸及能力,以及多元且長生命週期的市場地位。我們將透過嚴謹的資本配置並聚焦最佳機會,持續強化這些優勢;我們相信這將使我們能在長期持續實現每股自由現金流成長。

  • Before I turn it over to Mike to start Q&A, I want to say that it has been an honor to work at Texas Instruments for the last 25 years and to have been CFO during the last decade. I have thoroughly enjoyed working with so many wonderful people. Over that time, we have made TI stronger and positioned it for continued success. I feel confident about the future at TI, and I'm looking forward to what's ahead for the company.

    在我把時間交回 Mike 開始問答之前,我想說,過去 25 年能在德州儀器工作、並在過去十年擔任財務長,是我的榮幸。我非常享受與許多優秀的人共事。在這段期間,我們讓 TI 更加強健,並為持續成功奠定基礎。我對 TI 的未來充滿信心,也期待公司接下來的發展。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Thanks, Rafael.

    謝謝你,Rafael。

  • Operator, you can now open the line for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

    接線員,現在可以開放提問。(接線員說明) 接線員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

    (操作員指示)Harlan Sur,摩根大通。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Julie, congrats on the promotion. And Rafael, thanks for all of the great support and execution. Haviv, last call, there was some concern stepping into the second half that we might see some slight deceleration kind of similar to last year, right? But given your above-seasonal guidance for Q3, it seems like the strength in the first half is continuing into the second half.

    Julie,恭喜升遷。Rafael,也謝謝你一直以來出色的支持與執行。Haviv,上次電話會議時,對於進入下半年確實有些擔憂,可能會看到一些輕微的放緩,類似去年,對吧?但鑑於你們對第三季給出高於季節性的指引,看起來上半年的強勁正延續到下半年。

  • You also are now starting to see the acceleration in automotive. Do you expect this profile of strength to continue end market-wise into Q3 and maybe second half? And then what's driving the inflection in automotive?

    你們現在也開始看到汽車領域的加速。你是否預期這種強勁的態勢,從終端市場角度看,會延續到第三季,甚至下半年?另外,汽車領域轉折點(inflection)的驅動因素是什麼?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Harlan. I think you characterized what you're seeing well. The -- I think we -- right now, as we stand in July, we see a setup that -- of a stronger demand, and it's broader. It's not only -- in the last couple of quarters, it was really an industrial and data center play. Right now, we are seeing demand growing to the automotive market.

    謝謝你,Harlan。我認為你對所看到的情況描述得很到位。我想——我們——就目前而言,站在七月這個時間點,我們看到的局面是——需求更強,而且更為廣泛。不僅如此——在過去幾個季度,主要真的就是工業與資料中心的表現。而現在,我們看到需求正在擴展到汽車市場。

  • I think my -- I'll talk about Q3. When you think about the above-seasonal guide, I think the contribution will come from all markets. The three markets that we've -- that drove the 2Q growth, meaning industrial, data center and automotive. But Q3 is traditionally a quarter of personal electronics strength. So I expect strong demand across the board.

    我想——我先談第三季。當你思考高於季節性的指引時,我認為貢獻會來自所有市場。帶動第二季成長的三個市場,也就是工業、資料中心與汽車。但第三季傳統上是個人電子產品走強的季度。所以我預期各領域的需求都會強勁。

  • Now regarding automotive, I think we saw a combination of a couple of things. I think we did see an uptick in -- and by the way, it developed throughout the quarter. So when we came to the call in April, we didn't have the same visibility. It built up as we went through the quarter, led by China. And I think it's really led by EVs and hybrids. Cost of fuel drove that, I believe. In addition, I think our automotive customers have taken their inventory to very low levels. And now as there is a little bit more demand, they find themselves in a situation that is not sustainable. I think that also drove part of the demand.

    至於汽車方面,我認為我們看到幾個因素的組合。我想我們確實看到——而且順帶一提,這是在整個季度逐步形成的上升趨勢。所以當我們四月來開電話會議時,我們並沒有同樣的能見度。它是在季度進行中逐步累積起來的,主要由中國帶動。我認為這主要是由電動車(EV)與油電混合車帶動。我相信燃油成本是其中的驅動因素。此外,我認為我們的汽車客戶已將庫存降到非常低的水位。而現在隨著需求稍微增加,他們發現自己處於一種不可持續的狀態。我認為這也推動了部分需求。

  • I think we are in the start of a cycle that is very, very broad. That's kind of -- when I look at it right now, that would be my prediction.

    我認為我們正處於一個非常、非常廣泛的循環的起點。這大概——以我現在的觀察,這會是我的判斷。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Harlan, do you have a follow-up?

    Harlan,你有追問嗎?

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Yes, I do. So input costs are moving higher. Demand remains strong. I assume that the TI team is still seeing expanding short lead time orders not anticipated in your customers' initial forecast coming into the quarter. You put all of this together, right, you guys had talked about potential for pricing increases in the second half of the year on the last earnings call.

    有的。所以投入成本正在上升。需求仍然強勁。我猜TI團隊仍然看到短交期訂單在擴大,而這些訂單並未包含在你們客戶在本季初的原始預測中。把這些因素放在一起,你們在上一季財報電話會議中談到,今年下半年可能有調漲價格的空間。

  • Are you executing positive pricing initiatives with customers? When do these go into effect? And is the breadth of these increases across both your Analog and Embedded segments?

    你們是否正在對客戶執行正向的價格調整措施?這些何時生效?而且這些調漲的範圍是否涵蓋你們的類比(Analog)與嵌入式(Embedded)兩個部門?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Harlan. I will just -- first let me just recap what we said in the previous call regarding the first half of the year. We now have the full six months behind us. And as we predicted, pricing was stable in the first half of the year, meaning flat, if you will. And that's an above-average year for us, right? Typically, prices do go down a couple of points every year. And this time, they held. I will say that we have started executing price increases, yes. And because we go to the market direct, we have it -- the discussion. This is not a one-time discussion with our distribution channel. It's really a discussion customer by customer. So if you will, it will be -- it will be dependent on the customer. Some of it will start to play in, in Q3, but I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. And also, some of our customers, we decide pricing once a year during our annual price discussions, and that happens only at the end of Q4. So that can continue also into the next year.

    是的。謝謝你,Harlan。我先——先回顧一下我們在上一通電話會議中對上半年的說法。現在我們已經走完完整的六個月。如我們所預期,上半年價格是穩定的,也就是說,如果你願意,可以說是持平。而那對我們而言是高於平均的一年,對吧?通常每年價格會下降幾個百分點。但這次價格守住了。我會說,我們確實已開始執行漲價,是的。而且因為我們是直接面向市場,我們可以——進行這些討論。這不是一次性與我們的通路分銷商的討論。而是真正逐一對每個客戶進行的討論。所以如果你願意,這將——取決於客戶而定。其中一部分會在第三季開始反映,但我預期會延續到第四季。另外,對於部分客戶,我們一年只在年度價格討論時決定一次價格,而那只會在第四季末進行。因此這也可能延續到明年。

  • Regarding the segments, meaning Analog and Embedded, look, where we see the most pressure, also within lead time escalations, I mentioned automotive, it's right now mainly on the Analog side. That's what we saw in the first part of the year. But I would say that Embedded is joining the trend. So if I can -- if I look at our opportunity for the second half of the year, I think we have an opportunity across all markets, but also across the two segments. I think the pricing discussions for Embedded will be more centered towards the next year.

    至於部門,也就是類比與嵌入式,你看,我們看到壓力最大之處——也包括交期拉長的情況——我提到汽車,目前主要是在類比端。這是我們在今年前半段看到的情況。但我會說,嵌入式也正在加入這個趨勢。所以如果我——如果我看我們下半年的機會,我認為我們在所有市場都有機會,同時也涵蓋這兩個部門。我認為嵌入式的價格討論會更偏向於明年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

    James Schneider,高盛。

  • James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

    James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

  • I was wondering if you could maybe comment on where your factory loadings stand today? How much you plan to increase them in the next couple of quarters? And then maybe just sort of comment on -- your kind of desired inventory position went down slightly this quarter. Do you expect that to stabilize in absolute dollars or go down?

    我想請問你是否可以評論一下你們目前的工廠稼動率(loadings)處於什麼水準?接下來幾個季度你們計畫提高多少?另外也想請你評論一下——你們本季的目標庫存水位略有下降。你預期它會以絕對金額來看趨於穩定,還是會下降?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Jim. Let me frame it at a very high level, and then I'll let Julie comment on this one. First, look, as I said, we saw the demand developing through the quarter. So it was very dynamic. And as we also mentioned in the last call, the best way to support short-term demand or demand that materializes very quickly through inventory, and that helped in the quarter.

    謝謝你,Jim。我先用很高層次來框架一下,然後我會請Julie來回應這題。首先,你看,正如我所說,我們看到需求是在整個季度中逐步形成的。所以變化非常動態。而且如同我們在上一通電話會議提到的,支援短期需求或非常快速實現的需求,最好的方式是透過庫存,而這在本季確實有所幫助。

  • But of course, we also have to prepare for the future, and that's where loadings come into play. Julie, maybe you can give some color on this.

    但當然,我們也必須為未來做準備,而這就是稼動率發揮作用的地方。Julie,也許你可以補充一些細節。

  • Julie Knecht - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Julie Knecht - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So our loadings did increase from first to second quarter. And throughout the second quarter, it did continue to increase. For third quarter, it will really depend on what demand looks like, but we do have cleanroom space available that we can equip and ramp, so we can support a wide range of scenarios from a customer demand standpoint.

    好的。所以我們的稼動率確實從第一季提高到第二季。而且在第二季期間,它也持續上升。至於第三季,將真正取決於需求看起來如何;但我們有可用的無塵室空間,可以進行設備配置並爬坡量產,因此從客戶需求角度來看,我們可以支援相當廣泛的情境。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Jim, do you have a follow-up?

    Jim,你有追問嗎?

  • James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

    James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

  • Yes. Given the free cash flow strength that you reported in Q2, can you maybe comment on whether you're on pace to exceed the range of free cash flow outcomes you sort of provided back at your capital management day earlier?

    有。鑑於你們在第二季所報告的自由現金流表現強勁,你能否評論一下,你們是否有望超出你們先前在資本管理日所提供的自由現金流結果區間?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So let me just again remind everyone that we gave a framework of revenue and free cash flow. I think the case of revenue, if I think -- if I remember well, at $20 billion, it was $8 to $9. And I think at $22B, it was $9 to $10. So that framework is still valid, Jim. You can use it as you model the company moving forward.

    我再提醒大家一次,我們提供的是一個營收與自由現金流的框架。我想在營收的情境下,如果我——如果我沒記錯,在200億美元時,是80億到90億美元。而在220億美元時,是90億到100億美元。所以那個框架仍然有效,Jim。你可以在往後建模公司時使用它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

    Stacy Rasgon,Bernstein Research。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • I wanted to first ask about OpEx. Like usually, it's typically down seasonally a few points into Q3. Are you still anticipating that? Or are there some differences in your spending plans, given the growth profile that we're seeing now?

    我想先問一下營運費用(OpEx)。通常來說,進入第三季時會因季節性因素下降幾個百分點。你們仍然預期會是這樣嗎?或者,鑑於我們現在看到的成長輪廓,你們的支出規劃是否有一些不同?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Stacy, this is Rafael. I'll take that one. On OpEx, net of other income and expense and acquisition charges, you should expect all of those to be flat, second quarter to third quarter. That should help you with modeling the company and modeling gross margins.

    Stacy,我是Rafael。這題我來回答。關於OpEx,扣除其他收入與費用以及併購相關費用後,你應該預期這些項目從第二季到第三季會持平。這應該有助於你建立公司的模型以及毛利率的模型。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • Got it. That's super helpful. For my follow-up, I just wanted to ask about personal electronics. Haviv, I kind of got from your comments, it sounded like you were almost expecting strength into Q3 in personal electronics. I'm just wondering what you're seeing in that market, given the current memory dynamics.

    了解。這非常有幫助。我的追問是想問個人電子(personal electronics)。Haviv,從你的評論我感覺你似乎幾乎預期個人電子在第三季會走強。考量目前記憶體的動態,我想了解你在那個市場看到的是什麼。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me maybe clarify that. Thanks for the question, Stacy. It's very good. We have typically a very high -- if you look at our PE, or personal electronics business, typically in 3Q, it's growing nicely, sometimes mid-teens. I expect this business to be growing sequentially, but maybe at a lower level. You saw our results in 2Q year over year, it was -- PE was flat. We are seeing challenges in PE as some shortages are putting pressure on our customers. So I think that the growth is typically -- in Q3, the growth is driven by PE. This time, it's more broad, okay? So think about all the markets. But PE will be a participant, I believe, because we see the demand breadth is very, very high.

    我來稍微澄清一下。謝謝你的問題,Stacy。這個問題很好。我們通常——如果你看我們的PE,也就是個人電子業務——一般在第三季會有不錯的成長,有時是十幾%的中段。我預期這個業務會呈現季比成長,但可能在較低的水準。你看到我們第二季的年比結果——個人電子是持平。我們在個人電子看到一些挑戰,因為某些短缺正在對我們的客戶造成壓力。所以我認為,通常第三季的成長是由個人電子帶動。但這一次會更廣泛,好嗎?所以要把所有市場都納入考量。不過我相信個人電子仍會參與其中,因為我們看到需求的廣度非常、非常高。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • (technical difficulty) flat year over year or down in Q3?

    (技術問題)第三季年比持平還是下滑?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Sorry, can you repeat the question?

    抱歉,你可以重複一下問題嗎?

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • Sorry. So do you think it's like down year over year in Q3, given it was flat in Q2 and given it's sort of weaker versus normal trends in Q3? I'm just trying to dial in the model.

    抱歉。所以你認為第三季年比會下滑嗎?因為第二季是持平,而且第三季相對於正常趨勢似乎偏弱。我只是想把模型調準。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • I don't have a by end market guide for each of the end markets. But I think as Haviv talked about what we saw, I think that's a good characterization of what we saw in the second quarter.

    我沒有針對各個終端市場逐一提供指引。但我想,正如Haviv談到我們所看到的情況,我認為那是對我們第二季所見狀況的良好描述。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Atif Malik, Citi.

    Atif Malik,花旗(Citi)。

  • Atif Malik - Analyst

    Atif Malik - Analyst

  • Welcome, Julie. I have a question on the data center sales that doubled year over year. Can you talk about your full year outlook? And then as the industry transitions to 800 volts, how do you see your competitive position versus incumbents?

    歡迎你,Julie。我有一個關於資料中心銷售年比翻倍的問題。你能談談你們對全年展望嗎?另外,隨著產業轉向800伏特,你如何看待你們相對於既有領導廠商的競爭地位?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Again, we do continue to see strong demand in the data center market, Atif, and I don't expect that to change in the foreseeable future. I think when you talk -- think about future architectures like 800 volts, it will be phased into the market. I think you can envision at the beginning, maybe an AC to DC, maybe AC to 800 volts and then an 800 to 48, 48 to 12, for example, right? That's how you bring in the technology.

    好的。Atif,我們確實持續看到資料中心市場的強勁需求,而且我不預期在可預見的未來會改變。當你談到——思考像800伏特這樣的未來架構時,它會逐步導入市場。我想你可以想像一開始可能是AC轉DC,或是AC轉800伏特,然後800轉48、48轉12,例如,對吧?這就是你把技術導入的方式。

  • So to me, that just means higher growth of the TAM, more conversion stages, and that helps our market on the analog and embedded side, if you think about the different analog parts participating in every conversion stage and also the embedded controllers and the signal chain parts. So I think that is a tailwind to -- for our market.

    對我而言,這代表TAM更高的成長、更多的轉換級數,而這會有利於我們在類比與嵌入式領域的市場;如果你想想不同的類比元件會參與每一個轉換級數,還有嵌入式控制器與訊號鏈元件。所以我認為這對——我們的市場而言是一股順風。

  • Now in the longer term, and that's going to take some time once we have the SST established, data center input will be at a DC voltage of 800 volts. And then I envision maybe direct conversion from 800 directly to 12 or 6 volts. And -- but that's coming later. And this is where the TAM continues to show strength. The higher voltage, the more opportunity we see.

    而在更長期來看,一旦我們把SST建立起來,這需要一些時間,資料中心的輸入端將會是800伏特的直流電壓。然後我想像可能會從800直接轉換到12或6伏特。——但那會在更後面。而這也正是TAM持續展現強勁的地方。電壓越高,我們看到的機會就越多。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • I think that layers on top of the foundational position that we have in data center, which has been growing very nicely as well. So we are looking forward to both those types of chips contributing in the future. Atif, do you have a follow-up?

    我認為這是在我們資料中心既有的基礎地位之上再疊加,而那個基礎地位也一直成長得很好。所以我們期待未來這兩類晶片都能有所貢獻。Atif,你有追問嗎?

  • Atif Malik - Analyst

    Atif Malik - Analyst

  • Yes. On the gross margins for the data center business, as this business grows, are your expectations that the profitability of the data center business will be in line with the corporate average over time?

    有。關於資料中心業務的毛利率,隨著這個業務成長,你們是否預期資料中心業務的獲利能力長期會與公司整體平均一致?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • So up to where we are now, it's been pretty similar to the overall corporate average. So I wouldn't skew you in either direction far on that. We'll have to see where it goes. I think we'll have to see as it ramps, what that's going to mean. But today, I wouldn't skew in either direction on what it's going to do to the gross margins overall.

    到目前為止,它與公司整體平均其實相當接近。所以我不會把你往任何一個方向大幅引導。我們得看看後續發展。我想我們必須觀察它在放量成長時,會代表什麼。但以今天來看,我不會把它對整體毛利率的影響往任何一個方向傾斜。

  • And what I will say is the good news is that as we ramp in any of the end markets, including data center, it's going to be on 300mm, it’s on newer assets that do have excellent ability to fall through for us. So we are looking forward to that.

    我想補充的是,好消息在於,當我們在任何終端市場(包括資料中心)放量時,會是在300mm上——是在較新的資產上,這些資產確實具備很好的利潤落底(fall-through)能力。所以我們很期待。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

    Vivek Arya,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Best wishes to both Rafael and to Julie. Haviv, my first question is for you, which is where are we in the industrial recovery cycle? How many more above-seasonal quarters should one expect? And I think you mentioned pricing as a lever for Q3. Can you help us quantify how much pricing is contributing to this, I think, 8% or so sequential growth in Q3? And can prices go up again in Q4?

    祝福Rafael與Julie兩位一切順利。Haviv,我第一個問題想問你:我們目前處於工業市場復甦循環的哪個階段?還能期待多少個高於季節性的季度?另外我想你提到定價是第三季的一個槓桿。你能幫我們量化一下,定價對第三季約8%左右的季比成長貢獻了多少嗎?而第四季價格還能再上調嗎?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Let me start with the industrial market, and maybe I'll say a few words about pricing at the end. So look, the -- I think, Vivek, we have a lot of opportunity in front of us. We -- even with a nice growth in Q2, we are still -- I have to go back to 2022, and we are still lower than that peak, maybe 5 points or 6 points lower than the 2022 peak.

    可以。我先從工業市場開始,最後再談幾句定價。所以你看——我認為,Vivek,我們前方還有很多機會。我們——即使第二季有不錯的成長,我們仍然——我得回到2022年來看——我們仍低於當時的高峰,可能比2022年的高峰低了5個點或6個點。

  • So if you think about a trend line of the industrial market, and I like to think about it as mid- to high-single digit growth on a market TAM opportunity. You -- and you're four years later, one can argue that we still have a lot of room to grow ahead of us. On top of it, I think the data center market is also providing tailwind into the industrial market. Think about sectors like the energy infrastructure, and think about test and measurement. And they were our fastest-growing segments or sectors, as we call them, in the second quarter or the first half of the year. So I think there is more tailwinds ahead. I do believe that customers are early and are not yet building inventory. So I think the setup is very positive.

    所以如果你用工業市場的趨勢線來看,我喜歡把它視為在市場TAM機會上有中到高個位數的成長。而你——四年之後——有人可以主張我們前面仍有很大的成長空間。此外,我認為資料中心市場也正在為工業市場帶來順風。想想像能源基礎設施這類領域,以及測試與量測。它們是我們第二季或上半年成長最快的細分領域或產業(我們稱之為sector)。所以我認為前方還有更多順風。我確實相信客戶仍在早期階段,尚未開始建立庫存。所以我認為整體態勢非常正面。

  • Regarding pricing, look, as I said, it's -- in our case, it will be really weaved into the future. It depends on the customer. So if I think about the forecast for Q3, the vast majority of it is just unit growth and maybe a little contribution from pricing, but almost insignificant.

    關於定價,你看,正如我說的——就我們的情況而言,它會真正融入未來。這取決於客戶。所以如果我想想第三季的展望,絕大部分只是出貨單位成長,定價可能有一點點貢獻,但幾乎可以忽略不計。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • All right. Do you have a follow-up, Vivek?

    好的。Vivek,你有追問嗎?

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Yes. So Haviv, if we try to think about TI's opportunity in the data center beyond '26, right, so '27, '28 and beyond, what is the right kind of growth rate that one should think about? Is it 40%? Is it 50%? Like what is that right way that one should model TI's growth rate? And as part of thinking about that growth rate, do you think that achieving that growth rate kind of exposes you to winning or losing specific sockets at specific GPU or ASIC vendors? Just how is your visibility? How should we think about TI's long-term growth rate in the data center business?

    有。所以 Haviv,如果我們試著思考 TI 在 26 年之後、也就是 27、28 年及更長期在資料中心的機會,那麼大家應該用什麼樣的成長率來看才合適?是 40% 嗎?是 50% 嗎?也就是說,建模 TI 的成長率,正確的方法是什麼?而在思考這個成長率時,你是否認為要達到那樣的成長率,會讓你暴露在於在特定 GPU 或 ASIC 供應商那裡贏得或失去特定插槽(socket)的風險之下?你的能見度如何?我們應該如何看待 TI 在資料中心業務的長期成長率?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I don't think I can help there, but maybe, Mike, you can say a few words about what we're seeing. But look, our opportunity in data center is growing. And the reason it's growing, Vivek, is because of our R&D investments and also our ability to supply. That's the way I look at it. So as we move on and that market becomes a more substantial part of the analog and embedded market in general, ability to supply, ability to supply from geopolitically dependable capacity like we hold is becoming an advantage. So I think as long as we continue to see CapEx coming into data center, I think TI can do very well there. Our objective is not to put a certain growth rate, but actually to outgrow the market. I believe we will do it in 2026, and that's our plan into 2027.

    是的。我想我在這裡幫不上忙,但也許 Mike 你可以談幾句我們看到的情況。不過你看,我們在資料中心的機會正在成長。而之所以在成長,Vivek,是因為我們的研發投資,以及我們的供應能力。我就是這樣看待的。因此,隨著市場推進、而且資料中心在整體類比與嵌入式市場中變得更為重要時,供應能力——尤其是像我們所擁有、在地緣政治上可靠的產能所提供的供應能力——正成為一項優勢。所以我認為,只要我們持續看到資料中心的資本支出(CapEx)投入,TI 在那裡就能做得很好。我們的目標不是設定某個特定成長率,而是要跑贏市場。我相信我們會在 2026 年做到,而這也是我們延伸到 2027 年的計畫。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Yes. And I would just add, as Haviv talked about, a lot of our chips are used in the power tree involved in the data center. And there's other chips that are also -- that would sit more in the signal chain side that are also there, too. But as you have more power that's dedicated to data centers, as you have a larger number of them out there, we're going to benefit from that, just given the amount of chips that we have in those systems. So it really depends on what that build-out looks like. But as Haviv pointed out, we're in an excellent position from the portfolio that we have and the opportunities that are in front of us that we're working on as well on the ASSP side to be able to grow faster in that market compared to the overall. So I look forward to that.

    是的。我再補充一下,正如 Haviv 提到的,我們很多晶片用在資料中心的電源樹(power tree)上。另外也有一些晶片——更偏向訊號鏈(signal chain)那一側——也同樣在那裡。但隨著更多電力配置給資料中心、以及外面有更多資料中心建置,我們會因此受益,因為在那些系統裡我們的晶片數量很多。所以這真的取決於建置擴張(build-out)會長成什麼樣子。但如 Haviv 所指出的,憑藉我們的產品組合,以及我們眼前正在推進的機會(也包括在 ASSP 端的工作),我們處於非常有利的位置,能夠在該市場的成長速度快於整體市場。所以我很期待。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

    Timothy Arcuri,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about CapEx and the ITC. So Rafael, you're kind of run rating, it looks like at the lower end of the $2 billion to $3 billion gross CapEx guidance for the year. So I'm wondering, is it right to think that we'll be at the low end for the year? And then also as part of that, net CapEx has basically been zero during the first half of the year because of the ITC. So is it right to think that the ITC is going to still contribute about the same amount that it did during the first half of the year per quarter?

    我想問一下資本支出(CapEx)和 ITC。所以 Rafael,你們目前的執行節奏(run rate)看起來是在全年 20 億到 30 億美元總 CapEx 指引的低端。所以我想確認一下,是否可以認為今年會落在區間低端?另外,因為 ITC 的關係,上半年淨 CapEx 基本上是零。那麼是否可以認為,ITC 之後每季仍會貢獻大約與上半年每季相同的金額?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, so a couple of things in your question. First, on the CapEx expectation for 2026, it continues to be $2 billion to $3 billion. I could not skew it -- I would not skew it or bias it lower on the lower end at this point. If anything, it could be on the higher end of that midpoint, just given demand and how we want to support that for the subsequent years.

    是的,你的問題有幾個點。首先,關於 2026 年的 CapEx 預期,仍然是 20 億到 30 億美元。我現在不會把它往低端傾斜——也不會在此時把它偏向區間低端。如果真要說,考量需求以及我們希望如何支援後續年度,它反而可能落在中點偏高的一側。

  • On your ITC question, ITC can be choppy because it's for equipment that was placed in service the prior year. And so you just saw the first half or even the quarter, it was net -- it was more ITC than CapEx, but you shouldn't expect that. In fact, if anything, going forward, because a lot of the CapEx will be disproportionately placed in the assembly test operation, which is not in the United States, that portion does not get ITC. So we'll continue to file and get 35% ITC on U.S. manufacturing front end, and expect that benefit, but just -- it can be a little choppy over the years.

    至於你問的 ITC,ITC 可能會有波動,因為它是針對前一年投入使用(placed in service)的設備。所以你剛看到上半年、甚至單季,淨額——ITC 比 CapEx 還多,但你不應該預期會一直如此。事實上,如果有什麼趨勢的話,往後因為很多 CapEx 會不成比例地投向封裝測試(assembly test)作業,而那不在美國境內,那一部分就拿不到 ITC。因此,我們會持續申報並在美國製造前段(front end)取得 35% 的 ITC,並預期享有那項效益,但——多年之間它可能會有些起伏。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Tim, do you have a follow-up?

    Tim,你有追問嗎?

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • I do, Mike. So Haviv, I also had a question on data center. So I think you're qualified for some new designs on Phase 2. And I guess in that business, because you have a high catalog business, I would think that you should be able to take advantage of like hot spots more so than maybe some of your peers could. So what are you seeing? I mean, are you really going in and you're able to gain share because you do have a lot of inventory sitting there? And is that more like the exception versus the rule?

    有的,Mike。所以 Haviv,我也有一個關於資料中心的問題。我想你們在第二階段(Phase 2)有取得一些新的設計資格。而我猜在那個業務裡,因為你們有很高比例的型錄(catalog)業務,我會認為你們應該能比一些同業更能把握像「熱點」這類機會。所以你們看到了什麼?我的意思是,你們是否真的能夠進去並因為手上有很多庫存而取得市占?而這比較像是例外而不是常態嗎?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Tim, I think you and I discussed maybe end of last year, I do like the market or the complexity of a rack, if you will, just because of the diversity of sockets. And we like them all. We like the more complex one that are higher AUP and usually very competitive sockets. We like to call them ASSPs. We also like, as you mentioned, the catalog ones that you can have several options to solve the problem.

    Tim,我想你我可能在去年年底討論過——我確實喜歡這個市場,或者說如果你願意,把它看作機櫃(rack)的複雜度,因為插槽(socket)的多樣性很高。而我們都喜歡。我們喜歡更複雜、AUP 更高、而且通常競爭非常激烈的插槽。我們喜歡把它們稱為 ASSP。同時我們也喜歡——如你提到的——型錄類的產品,你可以用多種選項來解決問題。

  • But when you have inventory and capacity, you can benefit. So yes, we are seeing examples, real-time examples of, hey, we are line down, please help us. And every time that happens, that's an opportunity, because it's a discussion with the customer, and it's -- when you solve a problem, I think they make more bets on you for the future. So that's part of the reason why you've seen our business doubling more or less year to date. And we plan to continue to have capacity, cleanroom, inventory ahead of demand, so we can react or we can respond to these opportunities.

    但當你有庫存與產能時,你就能受益。所以是的,我們正在看到一些例子、即時的例子:嘿,我們產線停了,請幫我們。而每次發生這種事,都是一個機會,因為那會促成與客戶的討論,而且——當你解決了問題,我認為他們未來會在你身上下更多賭注。所以這也是你看到我們今年迄今業務大致翻倍的部分原因。而我們計畫持續讓產能、無塵室(cleanroom)、庫存都領先需求,這樣我們就能對這些機會做出反應或回應。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

    Joshua Buchalter,TD Cowen。

  • Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

    Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

  • Let me echo the congrats to both Rafael and good luck to Julie. Maybe to start following up on some of the earlier ones. I think if we plug in the flat OpEx, it implies sort of flattish gross margins for the third quarter, despite what should be an increase in volume. Any -- can you just walk through some of the puts and takes into gross margins for the third quarter across pricing, increased loadings and also 300mm mix? Because I think is it basically that the tailwinds are being offset by depreciation? Anything else going on we should be aware of?

    讓我也附和一下,恭喜 Rafael,也祝 Julie 好運。也許先從延續前面一些問題開始。我想如果我們代入營業費用(OpEx)持平,這意味著第三季的毛利率大概也會偏持平,儘管出貨量應該會增加。你能否帶我們走一遍第三季毛利率的各項拉動與抵銷因素,包括定價、產能稼動提升,以及 300mm 組合(mix)?因為我在想,是否基本上是這些順風被折舊所抵銷?還有其他我們需要注意的事情嗎?

  • Julie Knecht - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Julie Knecht - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So -- yes. So as a reminder, Rafael said earlier on the call that OpEx acquisition charges and the net between OI&E and interest should all be about flat to second quarter. And then if you play that in, then you have the fall-through of 70% to 85%, excluding depreciation, you should get in the right zip code. But as far as second -- third quarter is that 70% to 85% is a good placeholder. There's always some puts and takes in there. But it will -- the loadings will depend on what revenue looks like, but that model should get you close.

    是的。所以——是的。提醒一下,Rafael 先前在電話會議中提到,營業費用(OpEx)的併購相關費用,以及其他收入與費用(OI&E)與利息之間的淨額,第二季大致都會持平。然後如果把這些因素納入考量,再加上 70% 到 85% 的落底轉換率(不含折舊),你應該就會落在合理的區間。但就第二——第三季而言,70% 到 85% 是一個不錯的暫用假設。其中總會有一些正負因素互相抵銷。不過——負擔率會取決於營收表現,但那個模型應該能讓你估得很接近。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • But it shouldn't be flat. It should be a little higher.

    但它不應該是持平。應該會略高一些。

  • Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

    Joshua Buchalter - Analyst

  • Thank you. Sorry, I'm on the road and might have screwed something up. And maybe bigger picture, I was hoping you could give an update on how you're thinking about capacity and CapEx coming out of this year. With Sherman and Lehi shells built out, you're at the point where you can be more nimble, but there's still probably like a year of runway from spending to capacity output.

    謝謝。抱歉,我在路上,可能把某些地方弄亂了。另外從更宏觀的角度,我希望你們能更新一下:你們如何看待今年之後的產能與資本支出(CapEx)。隨著 Sherman 與 Lehi 的廠房殼體(shell)已建置完成,你們已經可以更靈活,但從投入支出到產能產出之間,可能仍有大約一年的時間差。

  • So like I guess, how comfortable with the runway and the amount of capacity you have online you are now? And any early indications of how we should be thinking about 2027 CapEx as we think about being a couple of quarters into this upcycle?

    所以我想問的是,你們現在對於現有的時間緩衝(runway)以及已上線的產能規模,有多大的把握?另外,當我們進入這一輪上行週期幾個季度之後,對於 2027 年的資本支出(CapEx),是否有任何早期跡象可以提供,讓我們知道應該如何思考?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Josh. I think I also said in my prepared remarks, we are excited about where we are because we have the cleanroom. The cleanroom was our biggest headache in the previous cycle. That, as you know, takes two to three years to be able to equip a cleanroom, and that's behind us.

    謝謝你,Josh。我想我在事先準備的發言中也提到,我們對目前的狀況感到很振奮,因為我們已經有無塵室(cleanroom)。在上一個景氣循環中,無塵室是我們最大的頭痛問題。如你所知,要把無塵室設備配置完成需要兩到三年,而這一關我們已經走過了。

  • When you think about the combination of -- while we are equipping in a very high level Richardson, RFAB2, we have a full cleanroom available almost in Sherman 1. So -- and not to mention, a shell, a second shell in Sherman 2. So when I think about our Analog opportunity to grow into the brick and mortar we have, we are in a great shape.

    當你想到這個組合——在我們以非常高的層級在 Richardson、RFAB2 進行設備配置的同時,我們在 Sherman 1 幾乎也有一整座可用的無塵室。所以——更不用說在 Sherman 2 還有一個殼體、第二個殼體。因此,當我思考我們的類比(Analog)業務要如何成長並充分利用既有的廠房建物(brick and mortar),我們的狀態非常好。

  • On Lehi, we do have to execute on Lehi 2 because as you remember, Lehi 1 enjoys the transfer of external manufacturing done in foundries into Lehi 1, but we are also starting to see growth that is not insignificant on the Embedded side. So Lehi 2 will come in just in time at the end of this year, we'll have the shell, and we can again grow into it seamlessly, as it's not a new site, and we don't need new customer qualifications.

    至於 Lehi,我們確實需要把 Lehi 2 執行到位,因為如你所記得,Lehi 1 受惠於把原本在晶圓代工廠(foundries)的外部製造轉移到 Lehi 1,但我們也開始看到嵌入式(Embedded)端出現不容小覷的成長。因此 Lehi 2 會在今年底及時到位,我們會有殼體,並且可以再次無縫地把成長導入其中,因為這不是新廠址,也不需要新的客戶認證(qualification)。

  • Now what we will need to do, and I think Rafael alluded to it, we need to equip the fabs. And we are prepared for a wide range of scenarios, but I think uniquely prepared versus the competition. I think we are -- we have done the hard work ahead of time. And we have capacity to build into. And regarding the exact numbers, I'll let -- we'll keep that for the capital management call in February. But as Rafael discussed, we're already making decisions right now to think about not only '27 and '28, even beyond.

    接下來我們需要做的——我想 Rafael 也提到——是為晶圓廠(fabs)配置設備。我們已為各種情境做好準備,而且我認為相較於競爭對手,我們的準備是獨特且更充分的。我認為我們——已經提前把最困難的工作做完了。而且我們有可供擴建的產能空間。至於確切數字,我們會——留到二月的資本管理電話會議再談。但如 Rafael 所說,我們現在就已經在做決策,不只是在思考 2027 與 2028,甚至更往後。

  • Anything to add, Rafael?

    Rafael,你有要補充的嗎?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • No, I would just say, high level, you can always use our -- the framework we've given you of 1.2 times the growth to calculate capital intensity, and that's not a bad rule of thumb to use to get a ballpark figure of where CapEx could go based on your expectations for top-line growth.

    沒有,我只想說,從高層次來看,你們可以一直使用我們提供的架構:以成長的 1.2 倍來計算資本密集度(capital intensity)。這作為經驗法則不錯,可用來依據你對營收(top-line)成長的預期,粗略估算資本支出(CapEx)可能走到哪裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom O'Malley, Barclays.

    Barclays 的 Tom O'Malley。

  • Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

    Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

  • Occasionally, you guys will give a little color on the out quarter by segment. It sounded like you kind of broadly said you saw strength across the board. I think the question was on personal electronics before, but you answered we're seeing strength across the board, which is typical seasonality. But anything that you could offer in terms of vectors of growth, particularly with auto acting a bit better in Q2? Do you think that continues into Q3? And do you think this mentality of kind of just in time to just in case continues to kind of spur above-seasonal growth in the near term?

    有時你們會按事業部門對未來季度提供一些補充說明。聽起來你們相當概括地表示各方面都看到強勁表現。我想先前的問題是關於個人電子產品,但你們回答說各方面都看到強勁,這符合典型的季節性。不過就成長動能(vectors of growth)而言,你們能否提供一些看法,特別是汽車在第二季表現稍微好一些?你認為這會延續到第三季嗎?另外,你認為這種從「即時供應(just in time)」轉向「以備不時之需(just in case)」的心態,是否會在短期內持續推動高於季節性的成長?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think typically, I don't provide so much color on the future. But this time, it's just easy. It's everywhere, okay? So when I look at the demand signal, it's just very strong and broad. And now it's -- we need to execute, right? We -- inventory helped. We are ramping our factories. We are going after it. And let's meet again in October, tell you how it went. But the team has executed in Q2, and I expect them to do the same in Q3.

    是的。我想通常我不會對未來提供太多補充說明。但這次很容易回答。就是到處都是,好嗎?所以當我看需求訊號時,它非常強勁而且很廣泛。而現在——我們需要執行到位,對吧?——庫存有所幫助。我們正在提升工廠產能爬坡(ramping)。我們正全力以赴。十月我們再見,我再告訴你進展如何。但團隊在第二季已經執行得很好,我也期待他們在第三季同樣做到。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Tom, do you have a follow-up?

    Tom,你有追問嗎?

  • Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

    Thomas O'Malley - Analyst

  • Just in terms of the capacity expansion, I think that you guys have alluded to your ability to increase utilization, but you also talked about cleanrooms. Is there a way to think about when you are going to decide to expand your footprint? Just obviously, you have plans already that you stated at the last capital management day or at least for some time now. But the assumption here with inventory where it is, is that you would take up utilization first. Any kind of metric that we should be looking at or market dynamic or revenue targets that could help us just understand when you decide to put more capacity in place, versus just kind of turning the key on the existing facilities?

    就產能擴張而言,我想你們曾提到有能力提高稼動率(utilization),但你們也談到無塵室。有沒有一種方式可以理解你們何時會決定擴大廠區規模(footprint)?很明顯,你們已經有一些計畫,你們在上一次資本管理日(capital management day)也提過,或至少已經提了一段時間。但在目前庫存水位的假設下,應該會先提高稼動率。有沒有任何指標是我們應該觀察的,或市場動態、或營收目標,可以幫助我們理解你們何時會決定新增更多產能,而不是只是把既有設施的開關打開、提高產出?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I'll just -- to the cleanroom question. And again, we'll give you more color during the 2027 capital management call. But in general, we are good for the next three years, okay? So you know what we've -- you can go back to our capital management slide. You can see the facilities between Richardson and Sherman 1 and the shell in Sherman 2 and Lehi 1 and 2. It's for us, okay, let's -- we are in Phase 3, modulate the equipment. That was our vision. We are now executing to it. Of course, I also think about '29 and beyond, but we can give a little bit more color there during the capital management call.

    是的。我先——回應無塵室的問題。同樣地,我們會在 2027 年的資本管理電話會議中提供更多說明。但一般而言,未來三年我們都沒問題,好嗎?所以你知道我們——你可以回去看我們的資本管理投影片。你可以看到 Richardson、Sherman 1 的設施,以及 Sherman 2 的殼體,還有 Lehi 1 和 2。對我們而言,就是,好吧,我們——現在在第 3 階段:調節設備投入(modulate the equipment)。那就是我們的願景。我們現在正在按此執行。當然,我也會思考 2029 年及以後,但我們可以在資本管理電話會議時再提供更多說明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • William Stein, Truist Securities.

    Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

  • William Stein - Analyst

    William Stein - Analyst

  • Great. I want to offer my congrats to Rafael and Julie. And I don't think it's been asked, but can you offer us any update on the timing or update on terms or conditions and approvals regarding Silicon Labs and the potential close of that transaction?

    很好。我想向 Rafael 和 Julie 表達祝賀。我不確定是否有人問過,但你們能否就 Silicon Labs 相關事項提供任何更新:包括時程、條款或條件的更新,以及監管核准(approvals)方面的進度,還有該交易可能完成(close)的時間?

  • Julie Knecht - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

    Julie Knecht - Incoming Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So regulatory approvals are moving as planned. We still expect to close in the first half of next year. And really no changes on how we're planning for the transaction to be financed, still expected to fund the transaction with cash on hand and debt.

    是的。所以監管核准正按計畫推進。我們仍預期在明年上半年完成交割。而且我們對交易融資方式的規劃沒有改變,仍預期以手上現金與舉債來支付這筆交易。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Do you have a follow-up, Will?

    Will,你有後續問題嗎?

  • William Stein - Analyst

    William Stein - Analyst

  • Yes. I'm hoping you can talk a bit about backlog and the duration of backlog. I wonder if you're seeing any extension in that, that might, for example, result in a change in lead time quotes.

    是的。我希望你能談談積壓訂單(backlog)以及積壓訂單的期間。我想了解你們是否看到期間有所延長,例如可能導致交期報價出現變化。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • We have seen backlog. First of all, you look at what second quarter did, we did see backlog build throughout the quarter, both in orders that are for immediate shipment, but also for backlog that's further out in time. We did see that build. And it's reflected in the guide. And as you heard Haviv talk about what we're seeing, we are seeing strength across our core markets.

    我們確實看到積壓訂單。首先,你看第二季的表現,我們確實看到整個季度積壓訂單持續增加,包含需要立即出貨的訂單,也包含交期更往後的積壓訂單。我們確實看到它增加。而這也反映在我們的指引中。而且如同你聽到Haviv談到我們所看到的情況,我們在核心市場全面看到強勁需求。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me just -- maybe just on the lead time, let me just add one point over there, Mike. So lead times are still, I think, very competitive. But they were below -- I think we talked about it in the last quarter on one of my fireside chats on a conference -- they were below 13 weeks in Q2, but we are seeing a little bit of an uptick there, not dramatic. Maybe a couple of weeks higher, simply because the demand is growing. And I do -- when I talk with customers, I do believe our lead times are the most competitive in the market.

    Mike,讓我補充一點——也許就交期(lead time)這部分補充一下。我認為交期仍然非常有競爭力。不過它之前低於——我想我們在上一季、我在某場會議的一次爐邊談話中提過——第二季交期低於13週,但我們確實看到有一點點上升,並不劇烈。可能多了幾週,主要是因為需求在成長。而且我——當我與客戶交流時,我確實相信我們的交期是市場上最具競爭力的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

    Tore Svanberg,Stifel。

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • Congrats to Rafael and Julie. Maybe on that last point there, Haviv, obviously, this cycle, you're very differently prepared in the last cycle with good capacity, low lead times and so on and so forth. And I know share gains is something that you measure over time, especially in Analog. But are you starting to see more and more customers come to you, especially in this environment with those long lead times?

    恭喜Rafael和Julie。也許就你剛才那點,Haviv,很明顯這一輪景氣循環,你們相較上一輪準備得更不一樣:產能充足、交期短等等。我知道市占率提升是你們長期衡量的事情,尤其在類比(Analog)領域。但在目前這種交期很長的環境下,你們是否開始看到越來越多客戶轉向你們?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, as you know, share in this -- in our market moves slowly, and this is why we like to measure it over time. But as I gave some examples, I think there was a previous question of immediate solving problems in an immediate way, I think we -- many times are the answer. And as you mentioned, in this upcycle, our plan is not to be the problem. We want to be the solution, okay? So in that sense, we are ready for that.

    你知道,在我們這個市場,市占率變動很慢,所以我們喜歡用時間來衡量。但正如我舉的一些例子,我想前面有個問題提到要立即解決問題、以即時方式處理,我認為我們——很多時候就是答案。而如你所說,在這一輪上行週期,我們的計畫是不成為問題。我們要成為解決方案,好嗎?所以在這個意義上,我們已經準備好了。

  • I will say that when some of the competition talks about lead times that are 52 weeks away, that's an opportunity for TI because that means that there is a little bit less visibility for customers. And sometimes they will start a new design even on a very complex part. So we are seeing more opportunities coming our way, but we'll have to measure it over time.

    我會說,當一些競爭對手談到交期要等52週時,這對TI而言是一個機會,因為那代表客戶的可視性會更低一些。有時候他們甚至會在非常複雜的零件上啟動新的設計。所以我們確實看到更多機會朝我們而來,但我們仍需要用時間來衡量。

  • As I mentioned, I think we picked some market share last year. We need to let this year play out and see how we did in '26. But I think this cycle will provide more opportunity. And when we get to the peak, we'll see how we did.

    如我提到的,我認為我們去年拿到了一些市占。我們需要讓今年的情況走完,看看我們在’26年的表現如何。但我認為這一輪循環會帶來更多機會。等到我們到達高峰時,就會看到我們做得如何。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Tore, do you have a follow-up?

    Tore,你有後續問題嗎?

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • Yes. I wanted to ask a question on the industrial market. It's obviously very strong. And you talked about all the reasons why. And I know sometimes it's a little bit difficult to dissect exactly what's driving the strength. But you mentioned pricing, you obviously mentioned customer inventory levels, and then there's the indirect impact from AI and so on and so forth.

    有的。我想問一個關於工業市場的問題。它顯然非常強勁。你也談到了所有原因。我知道有時候要精準拆解到底是什麼在驅動這股強勢會有點困難。但你提到了定價,也提到了客戶庫存水位,還有AI帶來的間接影響等等。

  • But I'm also wondering for your specific products, is there also an element of just higher prices here, meaning you have newer products now that perhaps have higher value that carry higher ASPs? Because obviously, I think we're all quite surprised about how strong this market continues to be.

    但我也想知道,就你們特定產品而言,是否也有一個因素是價格更高,也就是你們現在有較新的產品、可能價值更高、因此帶來更高的平均售價(ASP)?因為很明顯,我想我們都對這個市場持續如此強勁感到相當意外。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • Yes. Maybe I'll take that, and Haviv, feel free to add. But what we saw in second quarter, and you saw this leading up through first as well, was broad strength across the sector base and the region base. I think that, to Haviv's point earlier, you have had four years of secular content growth that's happened that has added content to industrial automation. We've seen aerospace and defense grow at higher rates, energy infrastructure for reasons probably adjacent to some of the data center reasoning. Robotics grew at a higher rate as well. But if you look at the entire sector based in industrial, all the sectors grew both sequentially and year on year, and every region grew as well. So it's pretty broad. I would chalk it up more to higher secular content growth than pricing. And as Haviv mentioned, the first half pricing was stable, about flat for us. If we see that benefit, it would likely be in third and beyond, as those conversations happen.

    是的。也許我先回答,Haviv也歡迎補充。我們在第二季看到的——你在第一季一路以來也看得到——是整個產業別與區域別都呈現廣泛的強勁。我想呼應Haviv先前的觀點,過去四年發生了結構性(secular)的內容成長,為工業自動化增加了更多內容。我們看到航太與國防以更高的速度成長;能源基礎建設也成長,原因可能與資料中心的一些邏輯相近。機器人也以更高的速度成長。但如果你看工業的整體產業別,所有產業別不論季比或年比都在成長,每個地區也都在成長。所以這是相當全面的。我會更傾向把它歸因於更高的結構性內容成長,而不是定價。而如Haviv提到的,上半年定價穩定,對我們而言大致持平。如果我們會看到那方面的好處,可能會在第三季及之後,隨著那些對話進行而出現。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Let me just -- to Mike's point, I think he was spot on. This is really driven by secular growth.

    是的。我補充一下——就Mike的觀點,我認為他說得非常到位。這確實是由結構性成長所驅動。

  • So you can ask, hey, why did we have to wait so long? It's all about inventory. It's inventory of parts, but it's also inventory of finished goods of the customer. So the customers, I think they've overbuilt during the previous cycle, and they have to go through that inventory depletion. Once they are done, what's waiting? New systems. New systems that were designed in the last four or five years. As you know, design cycles in industrial are long.

    所以你可能會問,嘿,為什麼我們得等這麼久?這完全與庫存有關。不只是零件庫存,也包括客戶的成品庫存。所以我認為客戶在上一輪循環中建庫過頭,必須經歷那段去化庫存的過程。一旦他們完成去化,接下來等著的是什麼?新系統。過去四到五年設計出來的新系統。如你所知,工業領域的設計週期很長。

  • And I think that's what we are seeing. We are seeing no more depletion of inventory. On top of it, you’re seeing new generation of systems with higher secular growth.

    我認為這就是我們正在看到的。我們看到庫存去化已經結束。此外,你也看到新一代系統帶來更高的結構性成長。

  • And to me, industrial is not different than automotive. If you look at an end equipment and you look at the generation-to-generation content, the content growth is quite significant.

    而在我看來,工業其實和汽車並沒有不同。如果你看終端設備,並比較一代到下一代的內容(content),內容成長相當顯著。

  • I also want to believe -- and again, time, the results will tell -- that we grew share on the larger content opportunity. So let's see how it does, but I think that's the reason you see such strong growth in industrial and expect that to continue.

    我也想相信——當然還是要看時間,結果會說明一切——我們在更大的內容機會上提升了市占。所以讓我們看看表現如何,但我認為這就是你看到工業如此強勁成長、並預期會持續的原因。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations, Vice President

  • And we'll go ahead and close the call. I'm going to move it to Haviv and let him wrap us up.

    接下來我們將結束本次電話會議。我會交給Haviv,請他做最後總結。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mike. Let me wrap up with what we've said previously. At our core, we are engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. Thank you, and have a good evening.

    謝謝你,Mike。我用我們先前說過的內容做個總結。在我們的核心,我們是工程師,而技術是公司基礎。但最終,我們的目標,以及衡量進展並為股東創造價值的最佳指標,是每股自由現金流的長期成長。謝謝,祝各位晚安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束,您現在可以掛斷電話線。感謝您的參與。