德州儀器 (TXN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 2025 營收為 47 億美元,季增 7%,年增 14%;EPS 為 1.48 美元,包含 0.10 美元的重組費用。
    • Q4 2025 指引:營收預估 42.2~45.8 億美元,EPS 介於 1.13~1.39 美元,稅率預估約 13%。
    • 市場反應:管理層認為本季表現符合預期,產業復甦持續但步調緩慢,客戶庫存去化已結束。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 工業、汽車、企業系統、通訊設備等多數終端市場皆有年增雙位數成長,顯示需求回溫。
      • 數據中心業務成長強勁,2025 年前三季年增約 50%,全年 run rate 約 12 億美元,為公司最快速成長市場。
      • 庫存水位與產能配置靈活,能快速支援不同市場需求變化。
      • 持續投資於製造、技術、產品組合與通路優勢,強化長期競爭力。
    • 風險:
      • 產業復甦步調緩慢,與過往上升週期相比明顯保守,主要受總體經濟與客戶投資猶豫影響。
      • 工業市場客戶對於新廠投資與資本支出仍處觀望,受地緣政治與關稅政策不確定性影響。
      • 毛利率受產能利用率下調、折舊費用增加與營收下滑影響,短期內承壓。
      • 價格持續呈現低個位數下滑,雖屬預期但仍需關注。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Analog 營收:年增 16%,季增(未明確揭露)
    • Embedded Processing 營收:年增 9%,季增(未明確揭露)
    • Other 事業群:年增 11%
    • 工業市場:年增約 25%,季增低個位數
    • 汽車市場:年增高個位數,季增約 10%
    • 個人電子:年增低個位數,季增高個位數
    • 企業系統:年增約 35%,季增約 20%
    • 通訊設備:年增約 45%,季增約 10%
    • 庫存:48 億美元,季增 1700 萬美元,天數 215 天,季減 16 天
  4. 財務預測
    • Q4 2025 營收預估 42.2~45.8 億美元
    • Q4 2025 EPS 預估 1.13~1.39 美元,稅率約 13%
    • 2025 年資本支出(CapEx)預期落在先前 200~260 億美元框架下緣,視復甦力道調整
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q3 訂單線性與 Q4展望?
      A: Q3 訂單表現如預期,未見 Q2 那種波動,符合產業復甦循環。
    • Q: 重組的原因與對成本的影響?
      A: 主要因關閉兩座 6 吋廠(Sherman 與 Dallas),預計 2026 上半年完成,並針對部分 R&D 效率進行整併,成本效益將逐步顯現。
    • Q: 毛利率下滑與產能利用率調整的後續影響?
      A: Q4 毛利率下滑主因為營收減少、折舊增加與產能利用率下調,未來會依需求調整 wafer starts,維持庫存水位,長期聚焦自由現金流成長。
    • Q: 中國市場現況?
      A: Q3 中國業務回歸正常,未見 Q2 的提前拉貨現象,工業市場年增約 40%。
    • Q: 數據中心與通訊設備強勁成長的驅動力?
      A: 數據中心相關需求強勁,2025 年 run rate 約 12 億美元,年增 50%,未來將於 Q1 進一步揭露數據中心業務細項。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Welcome to the Texas Instruments third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'm Mike Beckman, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer Haviv Ilan and our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

    歡迎參加德州儀器 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Mike Beckman,與我一起出席的還有我們的執行長 Haviv Ilan 和財務長 Rafael Lizardi。

  • For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

    如果您錯過了此次發表會,歡迎造訪我們的網站 ti.com/ir 查看。本次電話會議將透過網路直播,您可以透過我們的網站觀看。此外,今天的通話內容將會被錄音,並可透過我們的網站重播。

  • This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

    本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,其中涉及的風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的績效與管理階層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的前瞻性聲明的通知以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件,以獲得更完整的描述。

  • You likely saw last week we announced that the board of directors has elected Haviv Ilan chairman of the board, beginning January 2026. Haviv succeeds Rich Templeton, who will retire as chairman after a 45-year career with TI. I'm sure you will join me in congratulating them both.

    您可能已經看到我們上周宣布董事會已選舉哈維夫·伊蘭 (Haviv Ilan) 為董事會主席,任期從 2026 年 1 月開始。哈維夫接替里奇·坦普爾頓 (Rich Templeton) 出任董事長,後者在德州儀器工作了 45 年後即將退休。我相信你們會和我一起祝賀他們兩個。

  • Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, he'll provide insight into third-quarter revenue results, with some details on what we are seeing with respect to our markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on capital management, as well as share the guidance for fourth quarter 2025.

    今天,我們將提供以下更新。首先,Haviv 將簡要概述本季的情況。接下來,他將深入介紹第三季的收入結果,並詳細介紹我們所看到的市場狀況。最後,拉斐爾將介紹財務業績、資本管理最新情況,並分享 2025 年第四季的指導。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

    說完這些,讓我把它交給哈維夫。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mike. I'll start with a quick overview of the third quarter. Revenue came in about as expected at $4.7 billion, an increase of 7% sequentially and an increase of 14% year over year. Analog and Embedded both grew year on year and sequentially. Analog revenue grew 16% year over year, and Embedded Processing grew 9%. Our Other segment grew 11% from the year-ago quarter.

    謝謝,麥克。我首先簡要概述一下第三季的情況。營收大致符合預期,達到 47 億美元,季增 7%,年增 14%。模擬和嵌入式均實現逐年和連續成長。模擬收入年增 16%,嵌入式處理收入成長 9%。我們的其他部門比去年同期成長了 11%。

  • Let me provide a few comments about the current market environment. The overall semiconductor market recovery is continuing, though at a slower pace than prior upturns, likely related to the broader macroeconomic dynamics and overall uncertainty. That said, customer inventories remain at low levels, and their inventory depletion appears to be behind us. We are well positioned with capacity and inventory and have flexibility to support a range of scenarios.

    讓我對當前的市場環境發表一些評論。整體半導體市場正在持續復甦,儘管復甦速度比之前的復甦要慢,這可能與更廣泛的宏觀經濟動態和整體不確定性有關。儘管如此,客戶庫存仍然處於低水平,庫存消耗似乎已經過去。我們擁有充足的產能和庫存,能夠靈活地支援各種場景。

  • Now I'll share some additional insights into third quarter revenue by end market. First, the industrial market increased about 25% year on year and was up low-single digits sequentially, following a strong result in the second quarter. The automotive market increased upper-single digits year on year and around 10% sequentially, with growth across all regions. Personal electronics grew low-single digits year on year and grew upper-single digits sequentially. Enterprise systems grew about 35% year on year and grew about 20% sequentially. And lastly, communications equipment grew about 45% year on year and was up about 10% sequentially.

    現在,我將分享一些有關終端市場第三季收入的額外見解。首先,工業市場在第二季表現強勁的基礎上,年增約 25%,環比成長低個位數。汽車市場年增率高個位數,季增約 10%,所有地區均成長。個人電子產品年成長低個位數,季增高個位數。企業系統較去年成長約35%,較上季成長約20%。最後,通訊設備年增約 45%,季增約 10%。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Rafael to review profitability and capital management.

    說完這些,讓我把重心交給拉斐爾來審查獲利能力和資本管理。

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝,哈維夫,大家下午好。

  • As Haviv mentioned, third quarter revenue was $4.7 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.7 billion, or 57% of revenue. Sequentially, gross profit margin decreased 50 basis points.

    正如哈維夫所提到的,第三季的營收為 47 億美元。本季毛利為 27 億美元,佔營收的 57%。毛利率季減50個基點。

  • Operating expenses in the quarter were $975 million, up 6% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.9 billion, or 23% of revenue.

    本季營運費用為 9.75 億美元,比去年同期成長 6%,與預期大致相符。過去 12 個月,營運費用為 39 億美元,佔營收的 23%。

  • Operating profit was $1.7 billion in the quarter, or 35% of revenue, and was up 7% from the year-ago quarter.

    本季營業利潤為 17 億美元,佔營收的 35%,比去年同期成長 7%。

  • Net income in the quarter was $1.4 billion, or $1.48 per share. Earnings per share included a 10-cent reduction not in our original guidance. This includes 8 cents of restructuring charges related to efforts to drive operational efficiencies to support our long-term strategy, including the planned closures of our last 150mm fabs.

    本季淨收入為 14 億美元,即每股 1.48 美元。每股收益減少了 10 美分,這不在我們的最初預期之內。其中包括 8 美分的重組費用,與提高營運效率以支持我們的長期策略有關,包括計劃關閉我們最後的 150 毫米晶圓廠。

  • Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $2.2 billion in the quarter and $6.9 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in the quarter and $4.8 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $2.4 billion. This includes $637 million of CHIPS Act incentives, including a $75 million payment received in the third quarter related to the direct funding agreement.

    現在讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果,首先從現金產生開始。本季經營現金流為 22 億美元,過去 12 個月經營現金流為 69 億美元。本季資本支出為 12 億美元,過去 12 個月資本支出為 48 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 24 億美元。其中包括 6.37 億美元的《兒童資訊安全法案》激勵措施,包括第三季收到的與直接融資協議相關的 7,500 萬美元付款。

  • In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $119 million of our stock. In September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 4%, marking our 22nd consecutive year of dividend increases. This reflects our continued commitment to return free cash flow to our owners over time. In total, we returned $6.6 billion to our owners in the past 12 months.

    本季度,我們支付了 12 億美元的股息並回購了價值 1.19 億美元的股票。9 月份,我們宣布將股息提高 4%,這是我們連續第 22 年提高股息。這反映了我們持續致力於長期向業主返還自由現金流的承諾。總體而言,在過去的 12 個月中,我們向股東返還了 66 億美元。

  • Our balance sheet remains strong with $5.2 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter. Total debt outstanding is $14 billion, with a weighted average coupon of 4%.

    我們的資產負債表依然強勁,截至第三季末,現金和短期投資為 52 億美元。未償還債務總額為 140 億美元,加權平均票面利率為 4%。

  • Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.8 billion, up $17 million from the prior quarter, and days were 215, down 16 days sequentially. We have executed well on building an inventory position which we believe will allow us to consistently deliver high levels of customer service.

    本季末庫存為 48 億美元,較上一季增加 1,700 萬美元,庫存天數為 215 天,較上一季減少 16 天。我們在建立庫存方面做得很好,我們相信這將使我們能夠持續提供高水準的客戶服務。

  • Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, we expect TI's revenue in the range of $4.22 billion to $4.58 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.13 to $1.39. Our fourth quarter outlook includes changes related to the new U.S. tax legislation and now assumes an effective tax rate of about 13%. In addition, we expect our effective tax rate in 2026 to be about 13% to 14%.

    展望第四季度,我們預計德州儀器 (TI) 的營收將在 42.2 億美元至 45.8 億美元之間,每股收益將在 1.13 美元至 1.39 美元之間。我們對第四季的預期已考慮與美國新稅法相關的變化,目前假設有效稅率約為 13%。此外,我們預計2026年的有效稅率約為13%至14%。

  • In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

    最後,我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢,即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。我們將透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來繼續加強這些優勢,我們相信這將使我們能夠長期繼續實現每股自由現金流的成長。

  • With that, let me turn it back to Mike.

    說完這些,讓我把話題轉回麥克身上。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the line for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up.

    謝謝,拉斐爾。接線員,您現在可以開通熱線來回答問題了。為了給盡可能多的人提問的機會,請將問題限制在一個範圍內。我們回覆後,會提供您進一步跟進的機會。

  • Operator?

    操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

    (操作員指示)瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • Haviv, I'm wondering if you can talk about the linearity of bookings through the quarter. I know in the June quarter, things had softened throughout the quarter. But this quarter, it seemed like things got a little better as you moved through the quarter. So can you talk about that as you head into CQ4?

    Haviv,我想知道您是否可以談論整個季度的預訂線性。我知道在六月季度,整個季度的情況已經有所緩和。但本季度,隨著季度的推進,情況似乎有所改善。那麼在進入 CQ4 時您能談談這個問題嗎?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I'll give some high level comments, and Mike, please add anything with more detail. Yeah, this quarter came in as expected and -- not similar to what we saw in Q2 which was a little bit hectic with the tensions related to trade and tariffs, we saw a lot of change through the quarter. This was more of an as-expected quarter through the quarter in July, August, and September.

    是的,我會給出一些高層次的評論,邁克,請添加更多細節。是的,本季的情況與預期一致,與我們在第二季度看到的情況不同,第二季度由於貿易和關稅方面的緊張局勢而有些忙亂,我們在本季度看到了很多變化。七月、八月和九月季度的表現更符合預期。

  • Mike, anything to add on that one?

    麥克,對此還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • We had talked about the turns portion of the business had started out strong at the beginning of second and moderated near the end. We didn't see that same behavior again in third. Really, that portion kind of followed what you'd expect to see in a cyclical recovery that we saw in third.

    我們曾討論過,業務的轉變部分在第二節開始時表現強勁,但在接近尾聲時有所緩和。我們在第三次沒有再看到同樣的行為。實際上,這部分情況與我們在第三次週期性復甦中所看到的類似。

  • Do you have a follow-up?

    你有後續行動嗎?

  • Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

    Timothy Arcuri - Analyst

  • I do, yeah. Rafael, I wanted to ask about loadings that are assumed in the fourth quarter. I know you usually come in at the high end, but if we assume the midpoint of the guidance, and I assume that depreciation grows like it has the past few quarters, gross margin, if I exclude the depreciation, so on a cash basis, it's down like sub-67. It hasn't been that low in like 10 years. And you are already sitting on a lot of inventory. I don't think you want to build more, so what's the path to get cash margins on a better path here? I mean, it's below where it was seven to eight quarters ago when revenue was $600 million to $700 million lower than where it is today.

    是的,我知道。拉斐爾,我想問一下第四季假設的負荷。我知道你通常會以高端進入,但如果我們假設指導的中點,並且我假設折舊像過去幾個季度一樣增長,那麼毛利率,如果我排除折舊,那麼在現金基礎上,它會下降到 67 以下。近 10 年來,這一數字從未如此低過。而且您已經擁有大量庫存。我認為您不想建造更多,那麼在這裡獲得更好的現金利潤的途徑是什麼?我的意思是,它低於七到八個季度前的水平,當時的收入比現在低 6 億到 7 億美元。

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, let me try to answer that. There were several questions there, so let me see if I can hit most of them. First, your question is maybe fundamentally on inventory, so let me start there. We're very pleased with current inventory position. The objective for inventory is to support customers, to keep lead times short and have just great customer delivery and customer satisfaction. So that we are achieving, and we're pleased with where the inventory is.

    是的,讓我嘗試回答這個問題。那裡有幾個問題,所以讓我看看我是否能回答其中的大部分問題。首先,您的問題可能從根本上與庫存有關,所以讓我從這裡開始。我們對目前的庫存狀況非常滿意。庫存的目標是支援客戶、縮短交貨時間、實現良好的客戶交付和客戶滿意度。因此,我們實現了目標,並對庫存狀況感到滿意。

  • Now, given where revenue -- the midpoint of our revenue, in order to continue to maintain those levels of inventory and where we want to be on inventory, we're adjusting the loadings down into fourth quarter. We did some of that in third quarter, and we're going to do some more in the fourth quarter. So as we do that, and as you pointed out, when you look at fourth quarter, you have lower revenue, you have higher depreciation, you have the hit on the lower loadings. So that's how you get to the EPS range that we have listed.

    現在,考慮到收入——我們收入的中點,為了繼續維持庫存水平以及我們想要的庫存水平,我們正在將第四季度的負荷下調。我們在第三季做了一些這樣的工作,我們將在第四季做更多這樣的工作。因此,當我們這樣做時,正如您所指出的,當您查看第四季度時,您會發現收入較低,折舊較高,且負載較低。這就是我們列出的 EPS 範圍。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • All right, we'll move on to the next caller.

    好的,我們繼續接聽下一位來電者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Danely, Citibank.

    花旗銀行的克里斯丹利 (Chris Danely)。

  • Chris Danely - Analyst

    Chris Danely - Analyst

  • Hey guys, could you just talk a little bit more about the restructuring, maybe what was the catalyst for it, and then any benefits to expenses, either gross margins or OpEx, going forward?

    嘿夥計們,您能否再多談一下重組的情況,也許重組的催化劑是什麼,以及對未來的費用(毛利率或營運支出)有什麼好處?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • High level, it's related to actually two things. First, I think we announced several years back that we are winding down our 6-inch fabs, or 150mm fabs. We have one in Sherman, the old site, the old fab in the site, and one in Dallas. Both of them have actually started the last wafer this month, and we will see a gradual reduction in cost related to these two factories that grew, I think, the first half of '26. We're just taking the hit on the restructuring cost in Q3 as we had predictability, and the amount was clear to us in terms of the size of it.

    從高層次來看,它實際上與兩件事有關。首先,我想我們幾年前就宣布過,我們將逐步關閉我們的 6 吋晶圓廠或 150 毫米晶圓廠。我們在謝爾曼(舊址,舊工廠)有一個,在達拉斯還有一個。實際上,這兩家工廠本月都已開始生產最後一顆晶圓,我們將看到與這兩家工廠相關的成本逐漸降低,我認為,26 年上半年這兩家工廠的成本有所增長。由於我們有預測能力,所以我們只是在第三季承擔重組成本的衝擊,就其規模而言,我們很清楚。

  • Regarding the other part of it, this is an ongoing work that we're doing. We always look at efficiency gains. We had some areas where we felt that our R&D machine was not generating the returns that we would expect in the long term, and we decided to consolidate some sites. That is also going to take place in the next couple of quarters for the company.

    至於另一部分,這是我們正在進行的一項工作。我們始終關注效率的提升。我們覺得在某些領域,我們的研發機器並沒有產生我們期望的長期回報,因此我們決定整合一些站點。該公司也將在未來幾季內實現這一目標。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Chris?

    克里斯,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Rafael, is there anything just on the OpEx side that you want to mention, Rafael?

    拉斐爾,在營運支出方面,您還有什麼想提的嗎,拉斐爾?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • I would just say, tactically for fourth quarter, expect OpEx to be about flat to third quarter. And as Haviv alluded to, the benefits from the restructuring, they don't all come in immediately, so it just takes a little while for that to happen. And there will be benefits in both COR as well as OpEx.

    我只想說,從戰術上來說,預計第四季的營運支出將與第三季持平。正如哈維夫所提到的,重組帶來的好處不會立即顯現,所以需要一點時間才能實現。而 COR 和 OpEx 都會受益。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Chris?

    克里斯,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Chris Danely - Analyst

    Chris Danely - Analyst

  • I think you guys said industrial was up low-single digits sequentially and auto was up, I think, it was high-single digits or something like that sequentially. That sounds like a bit of a change from what you said last quarter and intraquarter. Is that true? And then why do you think industrial is slowing down and auto is a little better than expected?

    我認為你們說過工業品銷量連續上漲了低個位數,而汽車品銷量連續上漲了高個位數或類似的幅度。這聽起來與您上個季度和本季內所說的有所不同。是真的嗎?那麼,您為什麼認為工業成長放緩而汽車業卻比預期好一點呢?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me take first. Chris, as you remember, we only guide at the company level, we don't guide by market. We did say, I think on the industrial side, that we had a very strong Q2, so we kind of indicated that we assumed Q3 will taper off, right? And actually, to me, that low-single digit growth sequentially was good. I'm pleased with the result. Remember, very strong growth in the second quarter.

    讓我先來。克里斯,你記得,我們​​只在公司層級進行指導,不以市場為指導。我們確實說過,我認為在工業方面,我們第二季的表現非常強勁,所以我們有點表明我們假設第三季將會逐漸減弱,對嗎?實際上,對我來說,連續的低個位數成長是件好事。我對結果很滿意。請記住,第二季的成長非常強勁。

  • On the automotive side, I would say, look, automotive is kind of sequentially up and down and up and down, but all in a very similar level, right? The recovery in automotive, at least for TI, was very -- the trough was shallow, and now it's kind of back to where it used to be. So I would not read too much into it. It came in more or less as expected. And I think, Mike, it grew across the regions in automotive?

    在汽車方面,我想說,看,汽車產業是按順序上下波動的,但都處於非常相似的水平,對嗎?汽車產業的復甦,至少對於 TI 來說,非常——低谷很淺,現在有點回到了以前的狀態。所以我不會對此進行過多的解讀。它或多或少符合預期。麥克,我認為它在汽車行業的各個地區都有所增長?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • It did, yeah. It grew sequentially across all the regions.

    是的,確實如此。它在所有地區都連續增長。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All the regions. So no surprises there, Chris, from our perspective at least.

    所有地區。所以克里斯,至少從我們的角度來看,這並不奇怪。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Yeah, I’d just add that with industrial, a second to third transition usually is actually down. If you just look across the averages over history, it's actually down a little bit. So an up low-single digit is actually not an unusual result if you're in a recovery.

    是的,我只想補充一點,對於工業來說,第二次到第三次的轉變通常實際上是下降的。如果你看一下歷史平均值,它實際上略有下降。因此,如果經濟處於復甦階段,低個位數的上漲實際上並不是一個不尋常的結果。

  • All right. I'll move on to the next caller.

    好的。我將轉接下一個來電者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Moore - Analyst

    Joseph Moore - Analyst

  • I guess, I continue to get a lot of questions about pricing for you guys. Anything unusual happening there? I think you alluded to an ongoing learning curve, price declines, but anything happening where any markets are different on the pricing side?

    我想,我繼續收到你們很多關於定價的問題。那裡發生了什麼不尋常的事情嗎?我認為您提到了持續的學習曲線、價格下降,但是在定價方面任何市場都發生過什麼不同嗎?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The short answer is, no. And again, for the year, I think our assumption coming into the year was a low-single-digit decline, like-for-like on the pricing side. And I think that's how we're trending today. So I expect the year to end at that low-single-digit price reduction in 2025.

    簡短的回答是,不是。再次,對於今年而言,我認為我們對今年的假設是價格方面同比下降幅度為個位數。我認為這就是我們今天的趨勢。因此我預計到 2025 年價格將以低個位數降幅結束。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Joe?

    喬,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Joseph Moore - Analyst

    Joseph Moore - Analyst

  • Yeah, and just any comment on lead times? Are you still in the range that you've talked about? Any areas where lead times are getting longer?

    是的,交貨時間有什麼評論嗎?您還在您所說的範圍內嗎?哪些領域的交貨時間正在變長?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Across the portfolio, very consistent with what it was the quarter prior. There's not much of a change in that. Our lead times right now are competitive. We've worked very hard to make sure that our inventory position could allow us to do that, and we're happy with the lead time position that we have. So yeah, not a lot of change on a sequential basis.

    整個投資組合與上一季的情況非常一致。這一點並沒有太大的變化。我們現在的交貨時間具有競爭力。我們非常努力地確保我們的庫存狀況能夠讓我們做到這一點,並且我們對現有的交貨時間狀況感到滿意。是的,從連續性來看,變化並不大。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Joe, just a little bit more color on the lead times. I think we always talk about inventory part by part, technology by technology, package type by package type. I think, as Rafael mentioned, the third quarter was a very good quarter for us because we've reached our milestone of where we need to be. We had a few areas where we were still catching up. So that's now behind us, and we are now prepared to any scenario.

    喬,請再詳細介紹一下交貨時間。我認為我們總是逐個零件、逐個技術、逐個封裝類型地討論庫存。我認為,正如拉斐爾所提到的,第三季度對我們來說是一個非常好的季度,因為我們已經達到了我們需要達到的里程碑。在一些領域我們仍處於追趕階段。現在這一切都已經過去了,我們已經做好了應對任何情況的準備。

  • As Mike said, we are serving our customers through growth this year of mid-teens with no issues. So very strong support from TI. We are hitting our metrics and exceeding them even, and the customer service is continuing to be very high for the company, which explains some of the low visibility we're seeing in terms of turns business, as Mike mentioned before.

    正如麥克所說,今年我們的客戶數量增加了十幾倍,沒有任何問題。因此,TI 提供了非常強大的支援。我們正在達到甚至超越我們的指標,而且公司的客戶服務品質仍然很高,這解釋了我們在業務轉型方面看到的一些低可見度,正如麥克之前提到的。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • All right. Move on to our next caller, please.

    好的。請接聽下一位來電。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

    拉斯貢(Stacy Rasgon),伯恩斯坦研究公司。

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • For my first one, I just wanted to dial in on the gross margin expectations explicitly for Q4. You talked about loadings and everything else. You talked about the tax rate coming up. It seems to me you're guiding it down, I don't know, maybe 250 bps, something in the ballpark of 55%. I just want to know, is that the right number to think about? And then given that baseline, how much cost should I be expecting comes out of the model due to the 6-inch fab closures in the first half?

    對於我的第一個問題,我只是想明確了解第四季的毛利率預期。您談到了負載和其他一切。您談到了即將調高的稅率。在我看來,您正在引導它下降,我不知道,也許是 250 個基點,大約 55% 左右。我只是想知道,這是值得思考的正確數字嗎?那麼,基於這個基準,我應該預期上半年 6 吋晶圓廠關閉將導致多少成本?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, so Stacy, high level, you're in the ballpark. We let the EPS guide speak for itself, but you have lower revenue, and you fall that through. You have increases in depreciation. For the year, it's $1.8 billion to $2 billion, so it should be an increase second to third similar to -- third to fourth should be similar to second to third. So you do that, and you have higher levels of depreciation.

    是的,史黛西,從高層角度來說,你的判斷是正確的。我們讓每股盈餘指南來說明一切,但您的收入較低,因此您未能達到這一水平。折舊增加。今年的增幅為 18 億美元至 20 億美元,因此從第二到第三的增幅應該與從第三到第四的增幅相似。所以你這樣做,你的折舊率就會更高。

  • And then, as Haviv said, we're very pleased with our inventory levels. They're doing what they're supposed to. So now, we are moderating those wafer starts, those loadings, and as those come down, we get the impact on gross margins.

    然後,正如哈維夫所說,我們對我們的庫存水準非常滿意。他們正在做他們應該做的事。因此,現在我們正在調節晶圓的啟動和裝載量,隨著這些量的下降,我們將看到對毛利率的影響。

  • Let me just also step back and stress that we run the company with the mindset of a long-term owner and the objective to grow free cash flow per share over the long term. And that is gaining momentum. On a trailing 12-month basis, our free cash flow is up 65% from last year, and it has the potential to accelerate and grow even faster next year, as we outlined in our framework back in capital management.

    我還要強調的是,我們以長期所有者的心態來經營公司,目標是長期增加每股自由現金流。而這一趨勢正在不斷增強。在過去 12 個月中,我們的自由現金流比去年增長了 65%,並且明年有可能加速成長,正如我們在資本管理框架中所概述的。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Stacy?

    史黛西,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

    Stacy Rasgon - Analyst

  • I do, thanks. So your Q4 guide is down about 7% sequentially off of the slightly higher-than-expected Q3 base. My math suggests that down 7% or so is pretty much seasonal, like on a pre-COVID basis. I know post-COVID seasonality has been all over the place, but pre-COVID it typically was down, call it, high-single digits.

    我願意,謝謝。因此,您的第四季指引較略高於預期的第三季基數較上季下降約 7%。我的計算表明,7% 左右的下降基本上是季節性的,就像 COVID 之前的情況一樣。我知道新冠疫情後的季節性變化隨處可見,但在新冠疫情之前,季節性通常呈下降趨勢,甚至可以說,是高個位數。

  • So you seem to be on a seasonal trend now, and maybe that's consistent with customers no longer draining inventory. How should I think about normal seasonality, like pre-COVID levels for Q1? My feeling is it's typically down sequentially. I'm not asking you to guide it, but just what is normal for Q1, at least on a pre-COVID basis, if we're running more of a seasonal pattern from here?

    所以你現在似乎處於季節性趨勢,也許這與客戶不再消耗庫存是一致的。我應該如何看待正常的季節性,例如第一季的 COVID 之前的水平?我的感覺是它通常會依次下降。我並不是要求您對此進行指導,而是如果我們從現在開始運行更多的季節性模式,那麼至少在 COVID 之前的基礎上,第一季的正常情況是什麼?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Stacy, before we talk about Q1, let me just add a little bit more color on Q4. As you said, I look at it as a roughly seasonal guide as you said. And the reason is, there is a recovery, but it's at a very moderate pace, right? So that's what guides our, call it, seasonal view into Q4.

    史黛西,在我們討論問題 1 之前,讓我先對問題 4 做一點補充。正如您所說,我將其視為大致的季節指南。原因是,經濟確實在復甦,但速度非常緩慢,對嗎?這就是我們對第四季季節性看法的指引。

  • I also mentioned, and that's what we're seeing, this is part of the way we do business these days. More customers are direct, more customers are on consignment. Customer inventories are low, and I think they've gone through this depletion process. That's behind us. So we are going to be just seeing it real time as it comes, and hence our guidance.

    我也提到過,這就是我們所看到的,這是我們目前開展業務的方式的一部分。更多的客戶是直接客戶,更多的客戶是代銷客戶。客戶庫存很低,我認為他們已經經歷了這個消耗過程。那已經是過去的事了。因此,我們將即時觀察它的發生情況,並據此提供指導。

  • Now, regarding Q1, Mike, you can comment if you want.

    現在,關於問題 1,麥克,如果你願意的話,你可以發表評論。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Yeah, it's not unusual to see fourth to first historically -- this is not a guide for what we're going to see, but what historically has done, it's typically down just slightly sequentially. It's not unusual to see.

    是的,從歷史上看,從第四名跌至第一名的情況並不罕見——這並不是我們將會看到的情況的指南,但從歷史上看,它通常只是按順序略有下降。這並不罕見。

  • All right, Stacy, thank you for the questions. We'll move on to the next caller, please.

    好的,史黛西,謝謝你的提問。請我們繼續接聽下一位來電。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

  • Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

  • I'll ask a couple questions. Haviv, congratulations on the chairman role as well. I wanted to go back to the gross margin side. Rafael, you talked about all the reasons it was going to drop and the rough range from the prior question. Just wondered, how does that flow through into next year from the perspective of depreciation?

    我會問幾個問題。Haviv,也恭喜你擔任主席一職。我想回到毛利率方面。拉斐爾,您談到了價格下跌的所有原因以及之前問題的大致範圍。只是想知道,從折舊的角度來看,這會如何影響到明年?

  • Is there any change to the range you gave before? And if you're flat to slightly down in the first quarter, does that flow through, and the utilization dynamic, does that have to flow through inventory, et cetera, leading to a headwind as we go into the first half of next year as well?

    您之前給的範圍有變化嗎?如果第一季持平或略有下降,這是否會影響利用率動態,是否會影響庫存等等,導致明年上半年也面臨阻力?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, so a couple of things. First, on depreciation, no change to our guidance, $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion for this year. So you can back into fourth quarter, as I answered to Stacy a second ago. And for next year, we've said $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion, but to be on the lower end of that range. So that should give you enough to model that.

    是的,有幾件事。首先,關於折舊,我們的指引沒有變化,今年的折舊額為 18 億美元至 20 億美元。所以你可以回到第四季度,正如我剛才回答 Stacy 的那樣。對於明年,我們預計其規模為 23 億美元至 27 億美元,但將處於該範圍的低端。因此這應該足以為你提供足夠的模型。

  • Beyond that, we'll forecast one quarter at a time. It's going to depend on revenue and demand. So by lowering the loadings now, it puts us in a good position to have the level of inventory that we think is required. And I think that's going to put us in a good position going into 2026.

    除此之外,我們將逐季進行預測。這將取決於收入和需求。因此,透過現在降低負荷,我們可以處於有利地位,並擁有我們認為所需的庫存水準。我認為這將使我們在進入 2026 年時處於有利地位。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Ross, the only color I’d add, and Rafael touched upon it, we do think, and that’s the way we run the place, on free cash flow per share. We have made excellent progress on ramping and qualifying our Sherman new site. We are winding down two 6-inch fabs. Our investments in Utah, in Lehi 2, are continuing as planned. So our eyes are on free cash flow per share growth and start with free cash flow, right?

    羅斯,我要補充的唯一一點,拉斐爾也提到了這一點,我們確實認為,這就是我們經營公司的方式,基於每股自由現金流。我們在提升和完善謝爾曼新工廠品質方面取得了顯著進展。我們正在關閉兩座 6 吋晶圓廠。我們在猶他州利哈伊 2 號的投資正在按計劃繼續進行。因此,我們的目光集中在每股自由現金流的成長上,並從自由現金流開始,對嗎?

  • So when you get to the right level of inventory, when you execute on your expansion plans, I think we are now well prepared for any scenario. And as you remember, we have framed 2026 not on GPM but on free cash flow, and that’s where our sight is on.

    因此,當您達到正確的庫存水平,當您執行擴張計劃時,我認為我們現在已經為任何情況做好了充分的準備。大家還記得,我們​​設定 2026 年目標時不是基於毛利率,而是基於自由現金流,而這正是我們的目標所在。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Ross?

    羅斯,你還有後續問題嗎?

  • Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

  • Yeah, I do. I just wanted to also talk about margins, but on the OpEx side. Clarification first on the question, clarification for Rafael. You talked about OpEx being flat in the fourth quarter. I assume that’s excluding the charge in the third quarter.

    是的,我知道。我只是想談談利潤率,但涉及營運支出方面。首先澄清一下問題,向拉斐爾澄清一下。您談到第四季的營運支出持平。我認為這還不包括第三季的費用。

  • And then as you look forward, in the past you’ve had years where OpEx is flat year over year. You just took some restructuring, you’re consolidating R&D sites, you said. How should we think just generally about OpEx, whether it’s relative to revenue or absolute levels? Do you plan to grow it low-single digits? Is it something higher than that, like this year? Any sort of color about how you’re approaching OpEx as you look into next year?

    然後當你展望未來時,你會發現過去幾年營運支出逐年持平。您說,你們剛剛進行了一些重組,正在整合研發基地。我們該如何看待營運支出,它是相對於收入還是絕對水準?您是否計劃將其成長至個位數以下?會不會比今年更高?展望明年,您打算如何處理營運支出?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, so a couple of things. First, on the first part of your question, when I think about OpEx, I do not include restructuring in that. That is a separate line. So that $85 million, of course, that’s not going to repeat. So put that out. And the regular OpEx, I expect it to be about flat third to fourth quarter.

    是的,有幾件事。首先,關於你問題的第一部分,當我考慮營運支出時,我並沒有將重組納入。那是一條單獨的線路。當然,這 8500 萬美元不會再重複了。所以把它說出來。對於常規營運支出,我預計第三季至第四季將持平。

  • Beyond that, on R&D and SG&A strategy more broadly speaking, we have a disciplined process of allocating R&D and SG&A to the best opportunities and the best investments. That’s primarily on the R&D space, but even in SG&A strategies such as TI.com to strengthen our competitive advantages.

    除此之外,從更廣泛的角度來說,在研發和銷售、一般及行政費用策略方面,我們有一個規範的流程,將研發和銷售、一般及行政費用分配給最佳機會和最佳投資。這主要體現在研發領域,但也體現在 TI.com 等銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 策略中,以增強我們的競爭優勢。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, and on the R&D side, Ross, look, today I’d like to talk about -- and we are seeing the data center market becoming a larger opportunity over the last several years, and I think that continues into the future. So when I think about industrial, automotive, data center, the amount of opportunity to expand our portfolio is high. We have a lot of good investments to make there, and we plan to continue to grow our portfolio in these three areas. We care about all markets, all five markets, but these three will have a really long-term growth opportunity ahead of them, and TI can do more to serve these markets. So I expect to see that in '26 and beyond.

    是的,羅斯,在研發方面,今天我想談談——我們看到資料中心市場在過去幾年裡成為一個更大的機遇,我認為這種趨勢將持續到未來。因此,當我考慮工業、汽車、資料中心時,擴大我們的產品組合的機會就很多。我們在那裡有很多好的投資機會,我們計劃繼續在這三個領域擴大我們的投資組合。我們關心所有市場,所有五個市場,但這三個市場將擁有真正的長期成長機會,TI 可以為這些市場提供更多服務。因此我期望在 26 年及以後看到這一點。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Ross. We’ll move on to our next caller, please.

    謝謝你,羅斯。請繼續接聽下一位來電。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的吉姆·施耐德。

  • James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

    James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

  • I just wonder if you could maybe give us a little bit of color in China and what you're seeing there. I think last quarter you called out some pull-in activity. I'm curious whether you saw a reversion there in terms of orders or whether orders ended up better than you expected, and sort of what you're seeing on a real-time basis heading into Q4?

    我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹中國的情況以及您在那裡看到的情況。我認為上個季度您呼籲開展一些拉動活動。我很好奇,您是否看到訂單方面的回歸,或者訂單是否比您預期的要好,以及您在第四季度即時看到的情況如何?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • High level in Q3, China came back to normal, and I expect that to continue into Q4.

    第三季度,中國經濟已恢復正常,我預計這種情況將持續到第四季。

  • Mike, anything specific on the China business?

    麥克,關於中國業務有什麼具體消息嗎?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Yeah. And maybe add, as we probably talked about last quarter, there was potential for pull-forward in second. And if you look at industrial in China, that was the only market that didn’t grow sequentially. But if you look on a year on year, still up about 40%. But I think you're looking at where it essentially didn’t repeat. We didn’t see that same level of pull-forward, at least evidence of it. Can’t confirm that with certainty, but it doesn’t appear that same pull-forward trend repeated itself in third just based on that. But we’ll have to see how it plays through. That's the only thing I would add.

    是的。或許還可以補充一點,正如我們上個季度可能討論的那樣,第二季有可能提前。如果你看看中國的工業,那是唯一沒有連續成長的市場。但如果按年來看,仍成長了約 40%。但我認為你所看到的基本上沒有重複。我們沒有看到相同程度的拉動,至少沒有看到這種跡象。無法肯定地證實這一點,但僅基於這一點,似乎相同的提前趨勢不會在第三輪中重演。但我們必須看看它如何發揮作用。這是我唯一想補充的內容。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay, so nothing special to report there, Jim, okay?

    好的,吉姆,沒什麼特別要報告的,好嗎?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up?

    你有後續行動嗎?

  • James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

    James Schneider, Ph.D. - Analyst

  • Yes, please. I know when you get to the beginning of next year you’ll give us an update on the capital management day, but I’m curious, as we sit here today, in light of the slower recovery, you seem to be talking about right now or you’re seeing right now, can you maybe give us a sense about whether you expect that your CapEx for next year will be toward the lower end of the range you outlined at the beginning of this year?

    是的,謝謝。我知道到明年年初時您會向我們提供資本管理日的最新消息,但我很好奇,今天我們坐在這裡,鑑於您現在似乎正在談論或看到的複蘇放緩,您能否讓我們了解一下,您是否預計明年的資本支出將接近您在今年年初概述的範圍的低端?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we gave you the framework, Jim. And again, we gave you a $20 billion to $26 billion framework there, but of course, it can be higher or lower. I think the probability of being lower is probably more probable than higher than $26 billion, right? So at the end of the day, we’ll see what it wants to do. This recovery has been moderate, so we haven’t seen even the market goes back to trendline, not to mention going above trendline and customers building inventory. We just haven’t seen it. It could still happen in this cycle. It could not.

    是的,我們給了你框架,吉姆。再次重申,我們給出了 200 億至 260 億美元的框架,但當然,它可以更高或更低。我認為低於 260 億美元的可能性可能比高於 260 億美元的可能性更大,對嗎?所以到最後,我們會看到它想要做什麼。這種復甦是溫和的,所以我們甚至沒有看到市場回到趨勢線,更不用說超越趨勢線和客戶建立庫存了。我們只是還沒看到它。在這個週期中,它仍然有可能發生。但事實並非如此。

  • The good news from a TI perspective that we are ready for any scenario. If it wants to grow quickly, we will be able to serve it. But if it wants to continue in that moderate recovery, of course, we will be at the lower end of the CapEx, and free cash flow will grow as indicated in our framework we provided in capital management. And as February comes in, we’ll have some more information, we’ll have Q4 behind us, and we’ll provide more color on that, Jim.

    從 TI 的角度來看,好消息是我們已經為任何情況做好了準備。如果它想快速成長,我們將能夠為其提供服務。但如果它想繼續溫和復甦,當然,我們將處於資本支出的低端,而自由現金流將會增長,正如我們在資本管理中提供的框架所表明的那樣。隨著二月的到來,我們將獲得更多信息,我們將迎來第四季度,我們將提供更多相關信息,吉姆。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Jim. Move on to the next caller, please.

    謝謝,吉姆。請接聽下一位來電。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯‧卡索 (Chris Caso),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you. I guess, the first question is with regard to general conditions and the recovery. I think the words you said were that the recovery was continuing at a slower pace. Can you talk about what’s changed in your mind since the last earnings call? I think earlier in the year, perhaps we were more optimistic that this would follow the lines of a more typical recovery, which would be stronger by now. But what sort of changed in the part of your customers and such compared to the last earnings call?

    是的,謝謝。我想,第一個問題是關於整體情況和復甦情況。我認為您說的是經濟復甦仍在以較慢的速度進行。您能談談自上次財報電話會議以來您的想法發生了哪些變化嗎?我認為,今年早些時候,我們可能更加樂觀地認為這將遵循更典型的復甦路線,而現在復甦將會更加強勁。但是與上次財報電話會議相比,您的客戶等方面發生了哪些變化?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, sir. And I think that’s related more to the first half of 2Q. I think Mike mentioned that, and we acknowledged that in the July call that it had a very rapid start. We were thinking that we were sitting on a sharp slope. I think time taught us that it is not. I would not say -- it’s just moderate, okay? We are seeing the market getting back toward trendline but still below trendline. And that’s one of the more moderate recoveries that we’ve seen in history.

    是的,先生。我認為這與第二季上半年的情況更相關。我認為麥克提到了這一點,我們在 7 月的電話會議上也承認,它的起步非常迅速。我們當時想,我們正坐在一個陡峭的斜坡上。我想時間告訴我們事實並非如此。我不會說——這只是適度,好嗎?我們看到市場正在回歸趨勢線,但仍低於趨勢線。這是我們歷史上見過的較為溫和的復甦之一。

  • I think you have to go back many years to see similar behavior. It could still change. My -- and, again, I cannot prove it, but I do see when I talk with customers, especially on the industrial side, and if you think about investing, building new factories, putting more CapEx, there’s a bit of a wait-and-see mode with our customers. They’re just hesitant to have clarity on what exactly are the final rules. Should I put my factory in this country or another one?

    我認為你必須回顧很多年前才能看到類似的行為。它仍有可能改變。我的——而且,我無法證明這一點,但當我與客戶交談時,我確實看到,特別是在工業方面,如果你考慮投資、建造新工廠、投入更多資本支出,我們的客戶會採取一些觀望態度。他們只是不太清楚最終規則到底是什麼。我應該把工廠設在這個國家還是其他國家?

  • Even in our domain, think about it, the rules are still not finalized in terms of the rates of tariffs, for example. Will they be or not? So I do see this hesitancy at the customer base, and I see it mainly on the industrial side.

    想想看,即使在我們的領域,例如關稅稅率方面的規則仍未最終確定。他們會不會呢?所以我確實看到客戶群中存在這種猶豫,而且主要集中在工業方面。

  • On the automotive side, the secular growth is continuing, so just content growth allows that market to go back to the level it peaked before. And the outlier is data center. Data center, again, not a large part of our revenue, but growing more than 50% for TI year to date. That’s where we see strong investment. That’s the only place where we see strong growth, where customers are investing and moving fast, and TI wants to do more there, and we are investing as well. But again, it’s a smaller part of our revenue.

    在汽車方面,長期成長仍在繼續,因此僅內容成長就能使該市場回到先前的峰值水平。異常值是資料中心。再次強調,資料中心並不是我們收入的很大一部分,但今年迄今為止,TI 的收入成長了 50% 以上。我們看到那裡的投資十分強勁。這是我們看到強勁成長的唯一地方,客戶正在投資並快速行動,TI 希望在那裡做更多的事情,我們也在投資。但同樣,這只是我們收入的一小部分。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Chris?

    克里斯,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • I do, thank you. And as a follow-up, if you could take us through your thought process with regard to the reduction in wafer starts and utilization. I mean, is it a function of what you just said that typically the recovery would be stronger at this point, and it’s not there, so you need to moderate a bit? Take us through the thought process for that and for how long you would keep the loadings at a lower level, and what would you need to see to start raising those loadings again?

    我願意,謝謝。作為後續問題,您能否向我們介紹一下您在減少晶圓啟動和利用率方面的思考過程?我的意思是,這是否與您剛才所說的一樣,通常情況下,復甦在此時會更加強勁,但目前還沒有,所以您需要稍微緩和一下?請向我們介紹一下您的思考過程,您會將負荷保持在較低水平多長時間,以及您需要看到什麼才能再次開始提高這些負荷?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, so you can think of it fairly mechanically, frankly. Think of revenue was $4.7 billion and change in the third quarter. Now the midpoint is $4.4 billion. If you run the factories the same way you were before with lower revenue, you just grow inventory and keep on growing inventory. We only grew $17 million in the third quarter, so it was essentially flat. But at lower revenue, same loadings, you would grow inventory. So you need to moderate that in order to keep inventory either flat or maybe slightly down as we go into fourth quarter.

    是的,坦白說,你可以相當機械地思考它。想想第三季的營收是 47 億美元,而且有所改變。現在中點是 44 億美元。如果您以以前的方式經營工廠,而收入較低,那麼您只會增加庫存並不斷增加庫存。第三季我們僅成長了 1700 萬美元,因此基本上持平。但在收入較低、負荷相同的情況下,庫存就會增加。因此,在進入第四季度時,您需要適度調整,以使庫存保持平穩或略微下降。

  • The second part of your question, it’s going to depend on revenue, right? So the higher the revenue could be over the next 6, 9, 12 months going into 2026, then the faster we could increase the loadings back up. Or we may leave them at that level if the revenue is more moderate. So it’s just going to depend on how revenue comes in.

    你問題的第二部分,這取決於收入,對嗎?因此,到 2026 年,未來 6、9、12 個月的收入越高,我們就能越快增加負載。或者,如果收入比較適中,我們可能會將其保持在該水準。所以這只取決於收入來源。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Moving on to the next caller, please.

    請接聽下一位來電。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

    布萊恩·柯蒂斯,傑富瑞。

  • Blayne Curtis - Analyst

    Blayne Curtis - Analyst

  • I had two questions. I just wanted to follow back up on that loading comment. I mean, you said that you would keep it flat in December. I mean, I guess you don’t guide to March, but I’m just kind of curious, you’ve been growing inventory for many, many quarters. Is this now the way to think about it? You’ll keep it flat until you see a more robust recovery in the top line?

    我有兩個問題。我只是想跟進一下那個加載評論。我的意思是,你說過你會在 12 月保持平穩。我的意思是,我猜你沒有指導三月份,但我只是有點好奇,你已經連續很多個季度增加庫存了。現在是這樣思考的嗎?您會保持這一水平不變,直到看到營收出現更強勁的復甦嗎?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, and I think you're referring to flat inventory levels, and I said flat to down. So we're comfortable with the $4.8 billion that we have of inventory that has a very low obsolescence level. We hardly ever scrap any of our inventory because it lasts a long time, both in finished goods and in chips, in chip form and die bank and in finished goods. So we feel very comfortable with that level.

    是的,我認為您指的是庫存水平持平,而我說的是持平或下降。因此,我們對擁有的價值 48 億美元的庫存感到滿意,這些庫存的過時程度非常低。我們幾乎從不放棄任何庫存,因為無論是成品還是晶片,無論是晶片形式、晶片庫或成品,庫存都可以保存很長時間。所以我們對這個水平感到非常滿意。

  • But it's about sustainability, right? If you just keep on growing, it's just not a good allocation of your cash, of your capital for owners. So it's better to moderate the loadings. That way, you're flat to down in the current environment, and we feel that we can do that and continue to have very high levels of customer service and metrics supporting our customers.

    但這與永續性有關,對嗎?如果你只是不斷成長,那麼這對你的現金和資本所有者來說就不是一個好的配置。因此最好適度調整負荷。這樣,在當前環境下,您的業績就會持平或下滑,我們認為我們可以做到這一點,並繼續以非常高水準的客戶服務和指標來支持我們的客戶。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Blayne?

    布萊恩,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Blayne Curtis - Analyst

    Blayne Curtis - Analyst

  • And then, I guess, just a follow-up, in terms of the lower loading in the December quarter, is that all reflected in the gross margin guidance, or does that kind of spill into March? Obviously, like I said, you're not going to guide to March, but just thinking about the moving pieces, is there any part of the December cut that spills into March in addition to whatever March is?

    然後,我想,接下來的問題是,就 12 月季度的較低負荷而言,這是否都反映在毛利率指引中,還是延續到 3 月?顯然,就像我說的,你不會指導三月份,但只是考慮一下移動的部分,除了三月份的內容之外,十二月削減的部分是否還會延伸到三月份?

  • Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rafael Lizardi - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, so we're not guiding to March, as you pointed out. But the lower loading that I'm talking about, the one that happened in third quarter. There was a step down in third quarter, second to third, and there's another step down into fourth. That is, of course, embedded in the EPS guidance that we just gave.

    是的,正如您所指出的,我們不會指導三月的情況。但我所說的較低負荷是發生在第三季的負荷。第三節有一個下降,第二節到第三節又有一個下降,第四節又有一個下降。當然,這包含在我們剛剛給出的每股盈餘指引中。

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • All right, thanks, Blayne. Moving on to the next caller, please.

    好的,謝謝,布萊恩。請接聽下一位來電。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

    托爾·思文伯格,Stifel。

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • My first question is on the enterprise data and communications business. I get the enterprise data, that’s obviously the data center, but I’m a little bit surprised to see the communications equipment being that strong. Is that also tied to data center and perhaps some of these cluster buildouts, or is there anything else going on there?

    我的第一個問題是關於企業數據和通訊業務的。我獲得了企業數據,這顯然是數據中心,但我有點驚訝地看到通訊設備如此強大。這是否也與資料中心以及一些集群建設有關,或者還有其他事情發生?

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, I think it’s a great question, and that’s the reason I think we indicated before and we’ll provide more color in Q1 that we are planning to break out data center as a market for the company. Right now, our data center sits mainly in enterprise, in that compute end equipment, but also on the comms side. We have there the wire, the switches and the wired comms in rack and rack-to-rack. We also have the optical module business there in comms. So they are really part of the data center market, if you will.

    是的,我認為這是一個很好的問題,這就是我們之前指出的原因,我們將在第一季提供更多細節,表明我們計劃將資料中心作為公司的一個市場。目前,我們的資料中心主要位於企業,位於計算端設備,但也位於通訊端。我們在機架和機架間有電線、交換器和有線通訊。我們在通訊領域也有光模組業務。所以如果你願意的話,它們實際上是資料中心市場的一部分。

  • The other part of the data center market for TI sits today in industrial. Think about all these high-voltage power delivery, the PSUs and all that. And there is a lot of architectural change there going to high-voltage DC and all that. So I think it’s time that TI calls out data center at the top. We’ll provide more color in Q1, but just for the year, and then we are in the midst of collecting all the bits and pieces, but TI is running more or less at a $1.2 billion run rate in 2025. That’s what we’re seeing right now. And again, we’ll provide more specifics in Q1, but it’s also our fastest growing market. It’s growing year to date about 50% for the first three quarters. And I see customers continuing to invest, as I alluded to before. That’s the one market that we see CapEx going into, and I’m not seeing any slowdown there at least in the foreseeable future related to our visibility at least, okay?

    目前,TI 資料中心市場的另一部分是工業領域。想想所有這些高壓電力傳輸、電源等等。那裡的架構發生了很大變化,轉向高壓直流電等等。所以我認為現在是 TI 呼籲資料中心重視的時候了。我們將在第一季提供更多顏色,但僅限於全年,然後我們正在收集所有零碎的信息,但 TI 在 2025 年的運行率約為 12 億美元。這就是我們現在所看到的。再次強調,我們將在第一季提供更多具體信息,但這也是我們成長最快的市場。今年前三個季度迄今已成長約 50%。正如我之前提到的,我看到客戶繼續投資。這是我們看到資本支出進入的市場,而且至少在可預見的未來,我沒有看到與我們的可見性相關的任何放緩,好嗎?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a follow-up, Tore?

    托爾,你還有後續消息嗎?

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • Yes, that was very helpful. Just a quick follow-up. I know you typically don’t guide by market in Q4, but any sort of outliers one way or the other by your end markets into the December quarter, please?

    是的,這非常有幫助。只是一個快速的跟進。我知道您通常不會根據第四季度的市場狀況做出預測,但請問您知道在 12 月季度您的終端市場是否有任何異常情況嗎?

  • Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

    Mike Beckman - Head of Investor Relations

  • I’d just say there’s no specific outliers to call out. As you look across our businesses, some of our end markets have higher sensitivity to seasonality than others, personal electronics being probably the most sensitive to it. But overall, there’s nothing specific that I’d call out about fourth quarter’s transition.

    我只是想說,沒有什麼特別的異常值需要指出。縱觀我們的業務,您會發現一些終端市場對季節性的敏感度高於其他市場,而個人電子產品可能是最敏感的。但總體而言,我對第四季的轉變沒有什麼特別的看法。

  • Tore, thanks for the question. I’ll hand it back over to Haviv to wrap us up.

    Tore,謝謝你的提問。我會把它交還給哈維夫來幫我們完成。

  • Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Haviv Ilan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mike. So let me wrap up with what we’ve said previously. At our core, we’re engineers. Our technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective is to -- and the best metric to measure progress and generate value to our owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. Thank you, and have a good evening.

    謝謝你,麥克。讓我總結一下我們之前所說的內容。從本質上來說,我們是工程師。我們的技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終,我們的目標是——衡量進步和為我們的所有者創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。謝謝,祝您晚上愉快。