德州儀器 (TXN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

I'm Dave Pahl, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer Haviv Ilan and our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾(Dave Pahl)，與我一起的還有我們的首席執行官哈維夫·伊蘭(Haviv Ilan) 和首席財務官拉斐爾·利扎爾迪( Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

對於錯過該發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。此次電話會議正在網路上進行現場直播，您可以透過我們的網站進行存取。

In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

此外，今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將在我們的網站上重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知，以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

I would like to provide some information that's important to your calendars.

我想提供一些對您的日曆很重要的資訊。

On Tuesday, February 4, at 10 a.m. Central time, we will have our capital management call.

中部時間 2 月 4 日星期二上午 10 點，我們將召開資本管理電話會議。

Similar to what we've done in the past, Haviv, Rafael, and I will share our approach to capital allocation and summarize our progress as we prepare for the opportunity ahead.

與我們過去所做的類似，哈維夫、拉斐爾和我將分享我們的資本配置方法，並總結我們在為未來的機會做準備時所取得的進展。

Moving on, today we'll provide the following updates.

接下來，今天我們將提供以下更新。

First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter.

首先，哈維夫將首先簡要概述本季。

Next, he'll provide insight into fourth quarter revenue results, with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets.

接下來，他將深入了解第四季的收入結果，以及我們在終端市場方面看到的一些細節。

Haviv will then provide the annual summary of revenue breakout by end market.

然後，哈維夫將提供終端市場收入突破的年度摘要。

And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the first quarter of 2025.

最後，Rafael 將介紹 2025 年第一季的財務業績和指導。

With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

那麼，讓我把它交給哈維夫。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Let me start with a quick overview of the fourth quarter.

讓我先快速回顧一下第四季的情況。

Revenue was $4 billion, a decrease of 3% sequentially and 2% from the same quarter a year ago.

營收為 40 億美元，比上一季下降 3%，比去年同期下降 2%。

Analog revenue grew 2% year over year, after eight quarters of decline.

模擬收入在經歷了八個季度的下降之後，比去年同期增長了 2%。

Embedded processing declined 18% and our "Other" segment grew from the year-ago quarter.

嵌入式處理下降了 18%，而我們的「其他」部門較去年同期有所成長。

Now, I'll provide some insight into our fourth quarter revenue by end market.

現在，我將按終端市場提供一些有關我們第四季度收入的見解。

Our overall results reflect the performance from our two largest markets, industrial and automotive, with some modest sequential declines.

我們的整體業績反映了工業和汽車這兩個最大市場的表現，但環比略有下降。

Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it is more informative at this time.

與上季類似，我將專注於連續效能，因為此時它提供了更多資訊。

First, the industrial market was down low-single digits.

首先，工業市場出現低個位數下跌。

The automotive market was down mid-single digits.

汽車市場下跌了個位數左右。

Personal electronics grew mid-single digits.

個人電子產品成長了中個位數。

Next, enterprise systems declined low-single digits.

接下來，企業系統下跌了低個位數。

And lastly, communication equipment grew upper-single digits.

最後，通訊設備成長了個位數。

In addition, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market.

此外，正如我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣，我將按終端市場描述我們的收入。

As a percentage of revenue for 2024, industrial was 34%; automotive, 35%; personal electronics, 20%; enterprise systems, 5%; communication equipment, 4%; and other was 2%.

2024 年，工業佔收入百分比為 34%；汽車，35%；個人電子產品，20%；企業系統，5%；通訊設備，4%；其他為2%。

In 2024, industrial and automotive combined made up about 70% of TI's revenue, up from 42% in 2013.

到 2024 年，工業和汽車業務合計約佔 TI 收入的 70%，高於 2013 年的 42%。

We see good opportunities in all of our markets, but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive.

我們在所有市場都看到了良好的機會，但我們將戰略重點放在工業和汽車領域。

Our customers across all regions are increasingly turning to analog and embedded technology to make their end products more reliable, more affordable, and lower in power.

我們各個地區的客戶越來越多地轉向模擬和嵌入式技術，以使他們的最終產品更可靠、更實惠、功耗更低。

This drives growing cheap content per application, or secular content growth, which will likely continue to drive faster growth in industrial and automotive.

這推動了每個應用程式的廉價內容的成長，或長期內容的成長，這可能會繼續推動工業和汽車領域的更快成長。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝哈維夫，大家下午好。

As Haviv mentioned, fourth quarter revenue was $4 billion.

正如哈維夫所提到的，第四季營收為 40 億美元。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.3 billion, or 58% of revenue.

該季度毛利為 23 億美元，佔營收的 58%。

Sequentially, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue, higher depreciation and reduced factory loadings.

隨後，毛利下降主要是因為收入減少、折舊增加和工廠負荷減少。

Gross profit margin decreased 190 basis points.

毛利率下降190個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $937 million, up 4% from a year ago and about as expected.

該季度營運支出為 9.37 億美元，年增 4%，基本符合預期。

On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.8 billion, or 24% of revenue.

過去 12 個月的營運支出為 38 億美元，佔收入的 24%。

Operating profit was $1.4 billion in the quarter, or 34% of revenue.

該季度營業利潤為 14 億美元，佔營收的 34%。

And profit was down 10% from a year-ago quarter.

利潤較去年同期下降 10%。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $1.2 billion, or $1.30 per share.

第四季淨利為 12 億美元，即每股 1.30 美元。

Earnings per share included a 2-cent benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

每股收益包括我們最初指導中未包含的項目的 2 美分收益。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金產生開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $2 billion in the quarter.

本季營運現金流為 20 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in the quarter.

本季資本支出為 12 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $537 million of our stock.

本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息，並回購了 5.37 億美元的股票。

We also increased our dividend per share by 5% in the fourth quarter, marking our 21st consecutive year of dividend increases.

我們還在第四季將每股股息增加了 5%，這是我們連續 21 年增加股息。

In total, we have returned $5.7 billion in the past 12 months to owners.

過去 12 個月，我們總共向業主返還了 57 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $7.6 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第四季末現金和短期投資為 76 億美元。

Total debt outstanding was $13.7 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.79%.

未償債務總額為 137 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.79%。

Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.5 billion, up $231 million from the prior quarter, and days were 241, up 10 days sequentially.

季末庫存為 45 億美元，比上季增加 2.31 億美元，天數為 241 天，比上一季增加 10 天。

Now, let's look at some of these results for the year.

現在，讓我們看看今年的一些結果。

In 2024, cash flow from operations was $6.3 billion, and capital expenditures were $4.8 billion, as expected.

2024 年，營運現金流為 63 億美元，資本支出為 48 億美元，符合預期。

We're nearly 70% through a six-year elevated CapEx cycle that, once complete, will uniquely position TI to deliver dependable, low-cost, 300mm capacity at scale to meet customer demand.

六年的資本支出上升週期已完成近 70%，一旦完成，將使 TI 處於獨特的地位，能夠大規模提供可靠、低成本的 300mm 產能，以滿足客戶需求。

Free cash flow for 2024 was $1.5 billion, or 10% of revenue.

2024 年自由現金流為 15 億美元，佔營收的 10%。

Our free cash flow reflects the strength of our business model as well as our decisions to invest in 300mm manufacturing assets and inventory to support our overall objective to maximize long-term free cash flow per share, which we believe is the primary driver of long-term value.

我們的自由現金流反映了我們業務模式的實力以及我們投資 300mm 製造資產和庫存的決定，以支持我們最大化每股長期自由現金流的總體目標，我們認為這是長期的主要驅動力術語值。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.74 billion to $4.06 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $0.94 to $1.16.

談到我們對第一季的展望，我們預計 TI 營收將在 37.4 億美元至 40.6 億美元之間，每股收益將在 0.94 美元至 1.16 美元之間。

Based on current tax law, we now expect our effective tax rate for 2025 to be about 12%.

根據現行稅法，我們目前預計 2025 年的有效稅率約為 12%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions.

我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續實現每股自由現金流的長期成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說到這裡，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open the lines for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開提問線路。

In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question.

為了給盡可能多的人提問的機會，請限制自己提出一個問題。

After our response, we’ll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up.

在我們回覆後，我們將為您提供額外跟進的機會。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi, good afternoon, and thank you so much for taking the question.

你好，下午好，非常感謝你提出問題。

First one for Haviv.

第一個是哈維夫。

You're guiding Q1 revenue down, I think, 2% to 3% sequentially.

我認為，你們指導第一季營收比上一季下降 2% 到 3%。

I was hoping you could maybe provide some color by end market, what you're seeing on a sequential basis?

我希望你能在終端市場上提供一些顏色，你在連續的基礎上看到了什麼？

You guys were quite helpful last quarter, diving deep into automotive, what you're seeing in China, et cetera, et cetera.

上個季度你們非常有幫助，深入研究了汽車、你們在中國看到的情況等等。

So any color, any standouts to the upside or downside relative to what's typical seasonality would be very helpful.

因此，任何顏色、相對於典型季節性的任何突出的上行或下行都會非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Toshiya.

謝謝，俊哉。

So again, for Q1, as you said, about 3%, I think, sequential, which is -- I would describe it as a seasonal decline for Q1.

再次強調，對於第一季度，正如您所說，我認為連續成長約為 3%，我將其描述為第一季度的季節性下降。

I will say that typically, in Q1, what we do see is the personal electronics market would usually show quite a significant decline, just seasonality.

我想說的是，通常情況下，在第一季度，我們確實看到個人電子市場通常會出現相當大的下降，這只是季節性的。

And we did have a pretty decent Q4 for PE.

我們的第四季 PE 確實相當不錯。

So I think that's what we expect there.

所以我認為這就是我們所期望的。

And typically, also, if you look at the markets like automotive, industrial, the decline should be less pronounced there.

一般來說，如果你看看汽車、工業等市場，你會發現那裡的下降應該不那麼明顯。

So that's kind of my expectation.

這就是我的期望。

Nothing specific that I would add on markets.

我不會在市場上添加任何具體內容。

I will provide a little bit more color on Q4, especially in our two main markets, industrial and automotive.

我將在第四季度提供更多的信息，特別是在我們的兩個主要市場，工業和汽車市場。

I think, again, they behaved similarly like the overall company in Q4 and also similar to what we've seen in Q3, but maybe with some -- a little bit -- small changes.

我再次認為，他們的表現與第四季度的整個公司相似，也與我們在第三季度看到的相似，但可能有一些——一點點——小的變化。

So if I start with the industrial market, as I described I think during the last call, most of the sectors that are kind of hovering at the bottom, maybe found the bottom.

因此，如果我從工業市場開始，正如我在上次電話會議中所描述的那樣，我認為大多數徘徊在底部的行業可能已經觸底。

And then there are a couple of sectors that are still showing larger declines, especially industrial automation and the energy infrastructure market that has still not found its, I believe -- uh the bottom.

然後，有幾個行業仍出現較大跌幅，特別是工業自動化和能源基礎設施市場，我認為，我認為尚未找到底部。

We'll have to see what the first half of '25 has planned for that.

我們必須看看 25 年上半年對此有何計劃。

And on the automotive market, similar to Q3, we did see kind of a pretty significant weakness, maybe with the -- maybe outside of China.

在汽車市場上，與第三季類似，我們確實看到了相當明顯的弱點，也許是在中國以外的地區。

So it declined about mid-single digit, about 5% sequentially.

因此，它比上一季下降了約中個位數，約 5%。

But China did grow, but not enough to offset the declines in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, which is very -- it was kind of similar to what we've seen in Q3, but maybe the growth in China was less pronounced and the decline outside of China was more pronounced.

但中國確實成長了，但不足以抵銷歐洲、美國和日本的下滑，這與我們在第三季看到的情況非常相似，但也許中國的成長不太明顯，中國以外地區的下滑更為明顯。

That would be my high-level summary for Q4 and a little bit for Q1.

這將是我對第四季度的高級總結以及第一季的一些總結。

Do you have a follow-up, Toshiya?

你有後續嗎，Toshiya？

I do, Dave.

我願意，戴夫。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

The earnings outlook for Q1, Haviv, there's a pretty significant drop off on a sequential basis for a 2% to 3% decline in revenue.

Haviv 第一季的獲利前景較上季大幅下降，營收下降 2% 至 3%。

I was hoping you could kind of provide some context there.

我希望你能提供一些背景資訊。

Is it primarily gross margin?

主要是毛利率嗎？

And behind that, is it continued underloadings, increase in depreciation, some of the same dynamics we saw over the past 12 months?

背後是否存在持續的負載不足、折舊增加以及我們在過去 12 個月中看到的一些相同動態？

Or is it higher OpEx?

還是營運支出更高？

Anything below the line?

線以下有什麼嗎？

Any sort of additional color on sort of the drop-off in EPS for Q4 to Q1, that would be helpful.

任何關於第四季度到第一季每股收益下降的額外顏色都會有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

I think I covered revenue; Rafael, maybe you cover the other part there.

我想我已經支付了收入；拉斐爾，也許你會介紹另一部分。

Yeah, happy to.

是的，很高興。

Okay.

好的。

So maybe let me start with GPM, and then I'll go to OpEx, and then I'll go to the other income line, which is relevant this time.

所以也許讓我從 GPM 開始，然後我會轉到 OpEx，然後我會轉到其他收入線，這與這次相關。

So on gross margins, keep in mind that depreciation is increasing, first of all.

因此，就毛利率而言，首先要記住，折舊正在增加。

Second, well, revenue is decreasing.

其次，收入正在減少。

That has an impact.

這有影響。

Then depreciation is increasing.

那麼折舊就會增加。

And then we are -- in order to manage inventory, we are reducing factory loadings.

然後，為了管理庫存，我們正在減少工廠負荷。

We've reduced some of that in fourth quarter, but we're going to reduce those further in first quarter.

我們在第四季度減少了一些，但我們將在第一季進一步減少。

So I do expect GPM percent to decrease probably a few hundred basis points fourth quarter to first quarter.

因此，我確實預計第四季毛利率比第一季可能下降幾百個基點。

Then let me comment on OpEx.

然後讓我評論一下營運支出。

OpEx will increase 3% to 5% fourth to first, and that's kind of normal seasonal increases that happen in first quarter on OpEx in addition to the overall increases in investments that we're making.

營運支出將從第四季度到第一季成長 3% 到 5%，這是除了我們正在進行的投資整體成長之外第一季營運支出發生的正常季節性成長。

Beyond that, this time it's relevant that interest income is decreasing by about $50 million.

除此之外，這次利息收入減少了約 5,000 萬美元。

The reason that is happening is short-term interest rates are decreasing, and that's where we invest our cash.

發生這種情況的原因是短期利率正在下降，而這就是我們投資現金的地方。

And our cash on the balance sheet, cash levels, are also decreasing.

我們資產負債表上的現金、現金水準也在減少。

So a combination of lower interest rates and lower cash gives you a significant drop in other income.

因此，較低的利率和較低的現金組合會使您的其他收入大幅下降。

So that's, in this case, about $50 million less going to first quarter.

因此，在這種情況下，第一季的支出減少了約 5,000 萬美元。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

I guess first question would be with regard to the Embedded business.

我想第一個問題與嵌入式業務有關。

And we're seeing a sharp divergence there between those two businesses, particularly on the margin side.

我們看到這兩項業務之間存在巨大差異，特別是在利潤方面。

Can you give some explanation of what's going on between the Analog and the Embedded businesses, and is the reason for the decline the Embedded margins?

您能否解釋一下模擬業務和嵌入式業務之間發生的情況，以及嵌入式利潤率下降的原因是什麼？

Chris, let me just say a few words on the revenue side, and I'll let Rafael talk about the margins over there.

克里斯，讓我簡單談談收入方面的問題，然後我將讓拉斐爾談談那邊的利潤率。

So again, Embedded and Analog a little bit are -- like many of the phenomena we see regarding markets, geographies, we are seeing asynchronous behavior between these two markets.

再說一遍，嵌入式和模擬有點像我們看到的有關市場、地理的許多現象，我們看到這兩個市場之間的異步行為。

As you remember, Embedded -- our Embedded business -- grew in 2023, while our Analog business in '23 declined double digits.

如您所知，嵌入式業務——我們的嵌入式業務——在 2023 年實現了成長，而我們的模擬業務在 2023 年出現了兩位數的下降。

So we saw a later peak -- about a year later on Embedded; that's the reason we see a sharper decline in Embedded right now, while Analog in Q4 actually grew.

所以我們看到了後來的高峰——大約一年後，嵌入式；這就是為什麼我們現在看到嵌入式市場急劇下降，而模擬市場在第四季度實際上有所成長。

So I think Analog is about a year maybe ahead on Embedded in terms of the cyclical behavior.

因此，我認為就週期性行為而言，模擬可能比嵌入式領先一年左右。

Regarding profitability, Rafael, I'm sure it's related to LFAB, but you go.

關於盈利能力，拉斐爾，我確信這與 LFAB 有關，但你去吧。

That's absolutely right.

這是絕對正確的。

Yes.

是的。

So the profitability, Embedded first, is revenue.

因此，嵌入式的獲利能力首先是營收。

As revenue drops, that clearly has an impact on profitability.

隨著收入下降，這顯然會對獲利能力產生影響。

But the second part that is different than Analog is that Embedded is taking a disproportionate impact due to LFAB, the Lehi factory in Utah.

但與模擬不同的第二部分是，由於猶他州 Lehi 工廠 LFAB 的影響，嵌入式受到了不成比例的影響。

Because that factory, while it's going to serve both Embedded and is serving both Embedded and Analog, but it disproportionately serves Embedded.

因為該工廠雖然要為嵌入式服務，並且同時為嵌入式和模擬服務，但它不成比例地為嵌入式服務。

And since it's underutilized right now, it takes that hit from that underutilization, and factory loading affects Embedded disproportionately.

由於它現在尚未充分利用，因此它受到了未充分利用的影響，並且工廠加載對嵌入式的影響不成比例。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

克里斯，你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

I guess the follow-up question would be some update on what's going on in China right now.

我想後續問題將是有關中國目前正在發生的事情的一些最新情況。

You had spoken about, I guess, the auto business, again, is stronger there.

我想，你曾經談到過，那裡的汽車業務更加強勁。

Perhaps you could talk about the rest of the business that you're seeing in China, in the industrial business, for example.

也許你可以談談你在中國看到的其他業務，例如工業業務。

And we know that you've been taking some actions to kind of take back some of the share that you may have lost when your lead times were longer.

我們知道，您一直在採取一些行動，以收回因交貨時間較長而可能損失的部分份額。

Could you give us an update on that and how that may be affecting some of the numbers in the near term?

您能否向我們介紹一下這方面的最新情況以及這可能如何影響短期內的一些數字？

Sure.

當然。

So first, high level, our China business in Q4 did grow both sequentially, but also year over year.

首先，從高水準來看，我們第四季的中國業務確實實現了環比成長，而且年成長。

I think it was mid-teens or in that area for the entire China business.

我認為對於整個中國業務來說，這個時間大約是十幾歲左右。

I think the automotive strength, we talked about it last quarter.

我認為汽車的實力，我們上季討論過。

We're seeing the same phenomenon, meaning customers are continuing to do well.

我們看到了同樣的現象，這意味著客戶繼續表現良好。

And there is a bigger share for the EV vehicle type in China, which has higher content.

而電動車車型在中國的份額更大，含量也更高。

So secular growth is helping us in China on the automotive side.

因此，長期成長正在幫助我們在中國的汽車領域。

But you also see -- and I think we mentioned it also in the previous calls -- that we had some supply limitations during the upcycle in China.

但你也看到——我想我們在之前的電話會議中也提到過——我們在中國的升級週期期間存在一些供應限制。

And the personal electronics market was one of the main markets that suffered when we were short.

個人電子市場是我們做空時遭受損失的主要市場之一。

We are seeing this market growing in China.

我們看到這個市場在中國不斷成長。

It grew sequentially again nicely in Q3, but also year over year, that market grew significantly in China and also in the U.S. These are the main markets that we have our personal electronics businesses.

第三季再次實現了良好的環比成長，而且逐年成長，中國和美國市場也顯著成長。

So overall, again, overall business in China right now is healthy.

因此，總的來說，目前中國的整體業務是健康的。

You asked about industrial, we haven't seen yet the start of the cyclical growth again in industrial across all of our geographies.

你問到工業，我們還沒有看到我們所有地區的工業再次開始週期性成長。

So China here is not an outlier.

所以中國並不是一個例外。

The strength is coming mainly from, I would say, automotive and from personal electronics.

我想說，這種力量主要來自汽車和個人電子產品。

Yeah.

是的。

And let me just add a little color.

讓我添加一點顏色。

U.S., China and really rest of Asia is really more flat, to describe it sequentially.

依序描述，美國、中國和亞洲其他地區確實更加平坦。

Europe and Japan were down low-double digits.

歐洲和日本均出現低兩位數下跌。

As Haviv mentioned, if you look year on year, you see the U.S. and China up kind of 12%, 14% in that range.

正如哈維夫所提到的，如果你逐年觀察，你會發現美國和中國在這個範圍內成長了 12%、14%。

And that growth was offset overall by declines in the other regions.

這種增長總體上被其他地區的下降所抵消。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Chris, and we'll go to the next caller, please.

謝謝您，克里斯，我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

羅斯·西莫爾，德意志銀行。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks for having a question.

感謝您提出問題。

I want to ask about the pricing environment in general.

我想詢問一下整體的定價環境。

You didn't mention that, Rafael or Haviv, in any of your discussions about gross margin or the competitive environment or any of the sequential weakness.

拉斐爾或哈維夫，您在任何有關毛利率或競爭環境或任何連續弱點的討論中都沒有提到這一點。

But just wondered if that has changed in any meaningful way, either Analog versus Embedded or in certain geographies?

但只是想知道這種情況是否發生了任何有意義的變化，無論是模擬還是嵌入式，還是在某些地區？

Just any update on that front would be helpful.

只要這方面的任何更新都會有所幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

In high level, the pricing environment is not -- we've not seen any change in Q4 versus what we’ve seen in 2024.

從高層來看，定價環境與 2024 年相比，我們在第四季沒有看到任何變化。

I think we've expected -- I think we said in the beginning of '24 that pricing will go back to previous behavior, pre-COVID, where pricing will decline low-single digits like-for-like parts per year.

我想我們已經預料到了——我想我們在 24 年初就說過，定價將回到新冠疫情之前的水平，每年同類零件的定價將下降個位數。

And that's more or less what it did in 2024 as the year ended.

這或多或少就是 2024 年底的情況。

Of course I think I did provide some color on revenue by market.

當然，我認為我確實提供了一些關於市場收入的資訊。

The mix has changed, right?

混合已經改變了，對吧？

So the selling price, if you will, has changed, because industrial in '23 was 40% of revenue.

因此，如果你願意的話，銷售價格已經改變，因為 23 年工業佔收入的 40%。

It declined to 34% in '24, and the PE market grew from 15% in '23 to 20% in '24.

24 年下降到 34%，PE 市場從 23 年的 15% 成長到 24 年的 20%。

And that is a big change of mix, if you will.

如果你願意的話，這是一個巨大的組合變化。

And that's what we have seen.

這就是我們所看到的。

But the like-for-like parts has behaved as expected.

但同類部件的表現符合預期。

And I'm not expecting that to be different in 2025, and that's a comment to go across all geographies.

我預計 2025 年情況不會有所不同，這是一個適用於所有地區的評論。

Yes.

是的。

Do you have follow-on, Ross?

羅斯，你還有後續嗎？

Yeah, I do.

是的，我願意。

A little bit of a longer-term question maybe for Haviv.

對於哈維夫來說，這可能是一個更長期的問題。

Historically, the company has talked about share gains and losses in your markets being measured in basis points.

從歷史上看，該公司曾談論過以基點來衡量市場中的份額收益和損失。

I think, 15, 20, 25 basis points a year.

我認為，每年15、20、25個基點。

Given the fragmented nature of it, it was kind of what you would aspire to.

考慮到它的碎片化性質，這正是你所渴望的。

It can, of course, go down or up, I guess, for kind of idio reasons -- supply shocks, those sorts of things.

當然，我猜，它可能會因為某種愚蠢的原因而下跌或上漲——供應衝擊之類的事情。

But now that you have supply, it seems like the world has plenty of supply, is there any reason that, that historical share gain pace would be different going forward?

但現在有了供應，似乎世界上有充足的供應，是否有任何理由認為，歷史份額成長速度未來會有所不同？

Again, when we talk about share down or up, I think the only way to really measure it is over the long term.

再說一次，當我們談論份額下降或上升時，我認為真正衡量它的唯一方法是長期來看。

That's always been our approach.

這一直是我們的做法。

That's the way we run the company.

這就是我們經營公司的方式。

That's the way we behave, right?

這就是我們的行為方式，對嗎？

So TI, yes, there was a lot of, I would say, a shock wave almost during COVID.

所以，TI，是的，我想說，幾乎在新冠疫情期間，發生了很多衝擊波。

It was not only supply/demand mismatch, but behavior of customers and almost anxiety of needing parts.

這不僅是供需不匹配，還包括客戶的行為以及對零件需求的焦慮。

So I think inventory was built.

所以我認為庫存已經建立了。

And I think it's still playing out.

我認為它仍在發揮作用。

I wouldn't say that this asynchronous behavior across markets is done.

我不會說這種跨市場的異步行為已經完成。

We see it still across sectors in industrial.

我們在工業領域仍然看到這種情況。

We see it differently between geographies.

我們對不同地區的看法不同。

We even see it internally between our Embedded business and Analog business.

我們甚至在內部嵌入式業務和模擬業務之間看到了這一點。

So it's one of these things -- and I kind of hate to say it, but time will tell where we are.

所以這是其中之一——我有點討厭這麼說，但時間會告訴我們我們現在的處境。

I am excited about the fact that now we have the right inventory level, the right supply to support growth.

我感到興奮的是，現在我們擁有適當的庫存水準和適當的供應來支持成長。

I'm encouraged about our progress in the analog market.

我對我們在模擬市場的進展感到鼓舞。

As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we did grow the Analog business on a year-over-year perspective in Q4.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們在第四季度確實實現了模擬業務的同比增長。

It was a couple of points of growth, but after about eight quarters of decline.

這是幾個百分點的增長，但在經歷了大約八個季度的下降之後。

And I think we -- I look forward to continue to grow that business, especially when you think about the longer term.

我認為我們—我期待繼續發展這項業務，特別是當你考慮更長期的時候。

And most importantly, the secular growth in the market that we've mentioned, industrial and automotive, I'm convinced that it's there.

最重要的是，我們提到的工業和汽車市場的長期成長，我相信它就在那裡。

I'm convinced that our product portfolio is improving and strengthening.

我堅信我們的產品組合正在改進和加強。

And we will have the right level of capacity and inventory to support our customers.

我們將擁有適當水準的產能和庫存來支持我們的客戶。

So obviously, expectation, that I have for the team, is TI will continue to compete for market share and grow it.

顯然，我對團隊的期望是 TI 將繼續爭奪市場份額並擴大市場份額。

Thank you, Ross.

謝謝你，羅斯。

Can we go to next caller, please.

我們可以轉接下一個來電者嗎？

Chris Danely, Citi.

克里斯丹利，花旗銀行。

Haviv, I guess, just a little bit of a drill down on the end markets.

我想哈維夫只是對終端市場進行了一些深入研究。

How would you expect things to sort of play out this year?

您預計今年的情況會如何發展？

Maybe talk about where you would expect relative strength or not strength by the end markets?

或許可以談談您期望終端市場在哪些方面相對強勢或不強勢？

And have you seen -- would you say you've seen any change in business conditions over the last three months, like better, worse or not really?

您是否看到過去三個月中商業狀況發生了任何變化，例如更好、更糟還是沒有？

Yeah.

是的。

Chris, as I think I told you last time we met, we call it when we see it.

克里斯，我想我上次見面時告訴過你，我們看到它時就稱之為它。

Meaning, I can tell you what happened; it's very hard for us tell you exactly what will happen, even for this quarter, I think I mentioned even during the last call, lead times are short.

意思是，我可以告訴你發生了什麼事；我們很難準確地告訴您將會發生什麼，即使在本季度，我想我甚至在上次電話會議中也提到過，交貨時間很短。

Customers are coming real time for demand.

客戶即時前來尋求需求。

And our turn business, or what we call age in, is running high right now simply because customers are almost waiting for the last second before they make the order.

我們的輪流業務，或者我們所說的年齡，現在運作良好，只是因為客戶幾乎在下訂單前等待最後一秒。

And we fulfill it, because we do have the right level of inventory and of course capacity to support further growth.

我們實現了這一目標，因為我們確實擁有適當的庫存水平，當然還有支持進一步增長的能力。

I will say that I think that some of the markets -- and we've seen it through 2024 -- they are already on the cyclical upturn.

我想說的是，我認為一些市場——我們已經看到到 2024 年——它們已經處於週期性好轉之中。

I.e., we saw it in PE, then enterprise, really driven by data center joined, and we are seeing nice growth over there.

也就是說，我們在私募股權領域看到了這一點，然後是企業領域，真正由資料中心的加入推動，我們在那裡看到了良好的成長。

And even the communications business, I would say that I think it found the bottom.

即使是通訊業務，我也會說我認為它已經觸底了。

We saw it somewhere, I think, in Q1 of '24 and grew sequentially since then and even returned to year-over-year growth in Q4.

我認為，我們在 24 年第一季的某個地方看到了這一點，從那時起開始連續成長，甚至在第四季度恢復了同比增長。

So these three markets, I think they are on the upturn.

所以我認為這三個市場正在好轉。

And I don't think that -- I expect at least that, if nothing major changes, to continue into 2025.

我認為，如果沒有重大變化，至少我預計這種情況不會持續到 2025 年。

The big question for us is also 75% of our business -- or 70% of our business in 2024 is industrial and automotive.

對我們來說，最大的問題是我們 75% 的業務——或者到 2024 年我們 70% 的業務是工業和汽車。

And here, we haven't seen the bottom yet.

而在這裡，我們還沒有看到底部。

Let's be very clear about that.

讓我們非常清楚這一點。

We're seeing points of strength.

我們看到了優勢點。

I've given China as an example, but we'll have to see how the year play out.

我以中國為例，但我們必須看看今年的情況如何。

I do believe at least on the industrial side that there is kind of, as I said last time, kind of this hovering at a low level.

我確實相信，至少在工業方面，正如我上次所說，這種情況徘徊在低水平。

It's a great position to grow from.

這是一個很好的成長位置。

But we'll just have to wait and see when it wants to do it, Chris.

但我們只能等著看它什麼時候想做，克里斯。

And of course, when we see it, we'll say it.

當然，當我們看到它時，我們會說出來。

A follow-on, Chris?

後續，克里斯？

Sure.

當然。

Just quickly on Embedded.

只是很快就嵌入式了。

So it looks like you guys have the lowest margins there in I think over a decade or something like that.

所以看起來你們的利潤率是十多年來最低的。

Does something need to be changed or restructured there to get Embedded back to an adequate level of margins?

是否需要進行一些改變或重組才能使嵌入式恢復到足夠的利潤水平？

Or maybe talk about what needs to be done to get it to some sort of an appreciable level of margin?

或者也許可以談談需要採取哪些措施才能達到某種可觀的利潤水平？

Yeah.

是的。

Let me take a quick high-level answer, Chris, and Rafael will give a little bit more what's going on there.

讓我快速給出一個高層次的答案，克里斯，拉斐爾將提供更多的資訊。

I think you're seeing a business in transition, Chris.

克里斯，我認為您看到的是一家正在轉型的企業。

I'm growing more excited about Embedded every quarter.

每個季度我都對嵌入式變得更加興奮。

I think our portfolio is strengthening, and we are winning business.

我認為我們的產品組合正在增強，我們正在贏得業務。

We are going through a transition, especially on the manufacturing side.

我們正在經歷轉型，尤其是在製造方面。

And that puts pressure on the margins.

這給利潤帶來了壓力。

But we are convinced that strategically Embedded is going to be a great contributor to free cash flow per share.

但我們相信，策略性嵌入將為每股自由現金流做出巨大貢獻。

And so the short answer to your question about restructuring or anything.

這是對你關於重組或其他問題的簡短回答。

The answer is no.

答案是否定的。

Rafael, maybe you can provide some more color on what's going on there.

拉斐爾，也許你可以提供更多關於那裡發生的事情的資訊。

Yeah.

是的。

No.

不。

I'll just add, similar to what I said in a few calls -- a few questions ago.

我只是補充一下，類似於我在幾個問題之前的幾次電話中所說的內容。

One is the revenue is the main factor.

一是收入是主要因素。

As Haviv talked about earlier in the call, Embedded has seen a sharp decline because it took longer to get into the downturn than Analog did.

正如 Haviv 早些時候在電話會議中談到的那樣，嵌入式市場出現了急劇下滑，因為它比模擬市場需要更長的時間才能進入低迷狀態。

But if you look at peak-to-trough, they're about the same place, Analog and Embedded.

但如果你看一下峰谷，你會發現它們大致相同，模擬和嵌入式。

And then the other reason is LFAB, right?

那麼另一個原因是 LFAB，對吧？

So Embedded is taking a disproportionate amount of the impact from having LFAB underutilized.

因此，Embedded 因 LFAB 未充分利用而受到了不成比例的影響。

But let me stress, just like that takes away, it gives it to you on the other end.

但讓我強調一下，就像帶走一樣，它也會在另一端給你。

So when we ramp -- as we ramp LFAB, and as we move from external to internal, you're really going to like the fall-through both to GPM, but even better to free cash flow -- as we do that.

因此，當我們增加 LFAB 時，當我們從外部轉向內部時，你真的會喜歡 GPM 的下降，但更好的是自由現金流 - 當我們這樣做時。

So Embedded is, as Haviv said, it's in transition.

因此，正如哈維夫所說，嵌入式正在轉型。

And when we're on the other side, we're going to like the results.

當我們站在另一邊時，我們會喜歡結果。

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

And onto the next caller, please.

請接聽下一個來電者。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

One of the metrics we look at to gauge the health of the cycle is the number of customer pushouts, cancellations, rescheduling of the backlog relative to prior quarters or maybe big changes, right, on customer forecast inside of the quarter.

我們衡量週期健康狀況的指標之一是客戶推出、取消、積壓訂單相對於前幾季的重新安排數量，或可能是本季度內客戶預測的重大變化。

Has this level of activity remained at kind of normalized levels?

這種活動量是否維持在正常水準？

And then maybe on another metric we look at is turns orders.

然後，也許我們關注的另一個指標是訂單轉數。

And I know, Haviv, you said it's at high levels, but -- is that coming in about as expected as well?

我知道，哈維夫，你說它處於高水平，但是——這也符合預期嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Let me start with the second part of the question.

讓我從問題的第二部分開始。

I'll let Dave comment about the first part.

我會讓戴夫評論第一部分。

So look, we came in Q4 at the higher side of the range, close to the top of the range.

所以看，我們在第四季度處於該範圍的較高端，接近該範圍的頂部。

That all came from what we call the turns business.

這一切都來自我們所謂的輪流業務。

So we didn't see that clog in the beginning of the quarter, and it came in real time.

所以我們在本季初並沒有看到這種堵塞，而是即時出現的。

So we need to see that, that continues into the beginning of this year.

所以我們需要看到這種情況持續到今年年初。

Of course, there is Chinese New Year right now.

當然，現在正值農曆新年。

And we just have to see that it's not -- that it's a trend rather than anything that is a one-quarter phenomenon, but the turns business looks very, very good in Q4.

我們只需要看到這不是一種趨勢，而不是任何一個季度的現象，但第四季的輪換業務看起來非常非常好。

Yeah.

是的。

And Harlan, when you look at those other indicators, like you brought up cancellations, we had seen those drop several quarters ago, and they continue to be at very low levels.

哈倫，當你看看其他指標時，例如你提到的取消情況，我們在幾個季度前就看到了這些指標的下降，而且它們仍然處於非常低的水平。

If you look at things like revenue linearity, revenue increase through the quarter, that's very typical for us to see that.

如果你看看收入線性、整個季度的收入成長之類的事情，這對我們來說是非常典型的。

And Haviv mentioned earlier, lead times are -- remain short.

哈維夫之前提到，交貨時間仍然很短。

We have availability of essentially all of our products that we sell via the web available for immediate shipment.

我們透過網路銷售的幾乎所有產品都可以立即出貨。

So customers can behave and have that confidence that they can get the product that we've got.

因此，客戶可以表現得好，並有信心他們可以獲得我們的產品。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So right before the capital management update back in August, I remember you had just received your preliminary CHIPS Act grant allocation, $1.6 billion.

因此，就在 8 月資本管理更新之前，我記得您剛剛收到了初步的 CHIPS 法案撥款，16 億美元。

That number was solidified, I think, in December, and this was not contemplated in your free cash flow per share calculation.

我認為，這個數字在 12 月就得到了鞏固，並且在每股自由現金流計算中沒有考慮到這一點。

In the CHIPS Act press release, you guys articulated some of the milestones attached to those grant dollars.

在《CHIPS 法案》新聞稿中，你們闡述了這些贈款所附帶的一些里程碑。

And it looks like actually, many of those milestones are going to be executed in or before 2026.

事實上，其中許多里程碑將在 2026 年或之前執行。

And that's $1.6 billion in grant dollars.

這就是 16 億美元的補助。

That drives an incremental $1.75 of free cash flow per share versus sort of what you potentially laid out in your 2026 scenario analysis.

與您在 2026 年情境分析中可能提出的情況相比，這將導致每股自由現金流增加 1.75 美元。

So have you mapped out that $1.6 billion in CHIPS Act grants over 2025, 2026, and maybe have an updated view on the potential better free cash flow per share profile for Texas Instruments?

那麼，您是否已規劃出《CHIPS 法案》在 2025 年、2026 年撥款 16 億美元的計劃，並且可能對德州儀器 (TI) 潛在的更好的每股自由現金流狀況有最新看法？

So let me try to answer that question.

那麼讓我試著回答這個問題。

First, kind of bigger picture, as you alluded to, the Department of Commerce awarded us up to $1.6 billion in CHIPS Act funding.

首先，正如您所提到的，商務部向我們提供了高達 16 億美元的 CHIPS 法案資助。

This will help support three of our new 300mm wafer fabs under construction in Texas and Utah.

這將有助於支持我們在德克薩斯州和猶他州正在建造的三座新的 300 毫米晶圓廠。

This direct funding, coupled with the ITC, will help us provide a geopolitically dependable supply of analog and embedded processing chips for years to come.

這筆直接資金與 ITC 結合，將幫助我們在未來幾年提供地緣政治上可靠的模擬和嵌入式處理晶片供應。

Over the life of the -- maybe the most important point is, over the life of the program between the ITC and the direct funding, we expect to receive $7.5 billion to $9.5 billion in total.

在這個專案的整個生命週期中——也許最重要的一點是，在 ITC 和直接資助之間的專案生命週期中，我們預計將總共收到 75 億至 95 億美元。

We've received some of that already in 2024 and expect 2025 and beyond to continue.

我們已經在 2024 年收到了其中的一些，預計 2025 年及以後還會繼續。

We don't have any specific details to share at this point on the cash payments related to the direct funding, but as those happens, we will share those.

目前我們沒有任何關於與直接融資相關的現金支付的具體細節可分享，但當這些情況發生時，我們將分享這些細節。

I will just add that the math is not incorrect, but the timing is the problem, right?

我只想補充一點，數學並沒有錯，但時間才是問題，對吧？

So I think, as you said, there is -- and we talked about free cash flow, so it also depends on when we get the cash -- we just don't have that visibility.

所以我認為，正如你所說，我們談到了自由現金流，所以這也取決於我們何時獲得現金，而我們只是沒有這種可見性。

The milestones are related, as we I think mentioned, to cleanroom construction and tool installations in Sherman 1, which we are -- we started installing tools in the summer of '24, and that moved well.

正如我們所提到的，這些里程碑與謝爾曼 1 號的無塵室建設和工具安裝有關，我們在 24 年夏天開始安裝工具，進展順利。

And the construction of SM2, the shell, which is not done yet, but it's moving well.

SM2外殼的建造尚未完成，但進展順利。

The other part is more in Utah.

另一部分則更多在猶他州。

It's LFAB2.

這是LFAB2。

This is where we talk about cleanroom construction and tool installations for LFAB2.

這就是我們談論 LFAB2 潔淨室建造和工具安裝的地方。

But we are now only now starting the groundwork over there, right?

但我們現在才剛開始那邊的基礎工作，對吧？

So there is still quite a bit of execution in LFAB2.

所以LFAB2中還有相當多的執行量。

And we will see how that timing works as we continue to move forward on that execution.

隨著我們繼續推進執行，我們將看到這個時機如何運作。

Let me add one more thing.

讓我再補充一件事。

Just given that we have been officially awarded at $1.6 billion, we already booked that on our balance sheet.

鑑於我們已正式獲得 16 億美元的合同，我們已將其計入資產負債表。

So we have a $1.6 billion receivable.

所以我們有 16 億美元的應收帳款。

You can see that on the balance sheet.

你可以在資產負債表上看到這一點。

The other side of that, $1 billion of that, decreased our net PP&E.

另一方面，其中 10 億美元減少了我們的淨 PP&E。

And because that's related to a factory that's already built. $0.6 billion of that is actually deferred liability because it's related to a factory that's not built.

因為這與已經建成的工廠有關。其中 6 億美元實際上是遞延負債，因為它與一家尚未建成的工廠有關。

But the bottom line, where I'm going, is that this is already going to decrease our expected depreciation.

但我要說的底線是，這已經會降低我們的預期折舊。

So with that, let me give you an update to depreciation.

那麼，讓我向您介紹折舊的最新情況。

Depreciation for 2025, now you should expect $1.8 billion to $2 billion.

2025 年的折舊，現在預計為 18 億至 20 億美元。

That's slightly down from the previous expectation.

這比之前的預期略有下降。

And for 2026, we're keeping the range the same, $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion, but I'll tell you that we expect to be on the lower half of that range.

到 2026 年，我們將保持這一範圍不變，即 23 億美元至 27 億美元，但我會告訴您，我們預計將處於該範圍的下半部分。

That's a 2026 depreciation expectation, $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion to be at the lower end of that range.

這是 2026 年的折舊預期，即 23 億至 27 億美元，處於該範圍的下限。

Thank you, Harlan, we'll go to the next caller, please.

謝謝你，哈倫，請讓我們接聽下一個來電者。

CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

CJ 繆斯、坎托·費茲傑拉。

Hey, good afternoon.

嘿，下午好。

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

I know you guys are loath to talk beyond the quarter, but I was hoping you could give us a framework for thinking about gross margins beyond the March quarter.

我知道你們不願意談論本季之後的事情，但我希望你們能給我們一個框架來思考三月季度之後的毛利率。

You just gave us the depreciation.

您剛剛給了我們折舊。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Would love to hear kind of your thoughts on what's optimal inventory and therefore planned utilization beyond March?

想聽聽您對最佳庫存以及三月之後計劃利用率的看法嗎？

And is the March quarter kind of low for gross margin and we should start tracking higher?

三月季度的毛利率是否有點低，我們應該開始追蹤更高的水平？

Any thoughts there would be very helpful.

任何想法都會非常有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

No, happy to do that.

不，很高興這樣做。

It's going to be very similar to what I've said before, but it all starts with revenue.

這與我之前所說的非常相似，但這一切都始於收入。

So revenue is the number one driver of gross margin, both dollars and percent going forward.

因此，收入是毛利率的第一大驅動因素，無論是美元還是毛利率。

You model your revenue, then you fall that through at 75% to 85%.

你對你的收入進行建模，然後你的收入就會下降 75% 到 85%。

And then after you do that, then you have to adjust for depreciation increases.

這樣做之後，您必須根據折舊增加進行調整。

And I already gave you the depreciation numbers, so you can model that in the future.

我已經給了你折舊數字，所以你可以在未來對其進行建模。

This works much better if you do full years and do it over the long term, rather than any given quarter.

如果你做全年並且長期做，而不是任何給定的季度，那麼效果會更好。

And on that, the other factor that you have is the factory loadings or underutilization.

除此之外，另一個因素是工廠負載或利用率不足。

Right now, as I mentioned, we expect a hit from that in first quarter, but that -- just as it's a hit sometimes, is a benefit when you go the other way.

現在，正如我所提到的，我們預計第一季會受到打擊，但正如有時會受到打擊一樣，當你採取其他方式時，這也是一個好處。

But that depends on revenue expectations.

但這取決於收入預期。

So if revenue materializes in the future, and we expect that to continue, then we ramp up the factories and that helps with the loadings, and that tends to take the 75% to 85% towards the high end of that range.

因此，如果收入在未來實現，並且我們預計這種情況會持續下去，那麼我們就會擴大工廠規模，這有助於提高裝載量，這往往會將 75% 到 85% 推向該範圍的高端。

If that doesn't happen, then you're looking at the lower end of that range.

如果這種情況沒有發生，那麼您將看到該範圍的下限。

And the last note, and I think you touched it before Rafael, is related to our execution.

最後一個註釋，我認為你在拉斐爾之前觸及它，與我們的執行有關。

So of course, revenue, we want to grow it.

當然，我們希望增加收入。

And definitely, we want to do it faster than the market.

當然，我們希望比市場做得更快。

That's always our objective.

這始終是我們的目標。

But on the other hand, is that LFAB execution, right?

但另一方面，這就是 LFAB 的執行，對吧？

We are executing our transition from our foundry business into Lehi.

我們正在執行從鑄造業務向 Lehi 的轉型。

I expect that to have a step forward in 2025.

我預計這將在 2025 年向前邁出一步。

Especially in our automotive business, we have a bunch of parts what we call -- there’s a safety spec that usually the qual is a little bit more complex.

特別是在我們的汽車業務中，我們有很多我們所說的零件——有一個安全規範，通常品質會稍微複雜一些。

It just takes a little bit longer.

只是需要更長的時間。

But we are moving well on that execution.

但我們在執行上進展順利。

And again, my expectation from the team is to meet our commitment to our customers and get these parts out of Lehi, as they prefer that dependable capacity.

再說一次，我對團隊的期望是履行我們對客戶的承諾，並將這些零件從李海運出，因為他們更喜歡可靠的產能。

And for us, it's a way lower cost and, of course, helps as a byproduct on the margins as well.

對我們來說，這是一種更低的成本，當然，作為副產品也有助於提高利潤。

Do you have a follow-on, CJ?

你有後續嗎，CJ？

Yeah.

是的。

Yes, just a quick one, Dave.

是的，只是快一點，戴夫。

Rafael, just to go back to kind of the loading question.

拉斐爾，回到載入問題。

If we do assume normal seasonal pattern for your top line into Q2, Q3, should we assume that loadings would move higher in Q2?

如果我們確實假設您的營收進入第二季、第三季的正常季節性模式，我們是否應該假設第二季的負荷會更高？

Yeah, we forecast one quarter at a time, so I'm going to stick with that.

是的，我們每次預測一個季度，所以我會堅持下去。

But I'll also say, maybe as you're alluding to, the more revenue we have, then -- let me put it this way.

但我也會說，也許正如你所提到的，我們的收入越多，那麼——讓我這樣說吧。

We're not planning -- $4.5 billion of inventory is a healthy level of inventory.

我們沒有計劃——45 億美元的庫存是一個健康的庫存水準。

And we would not want to be draining those levels at this point.

我們不想在此時耗盡這些水平。

So maybe that gives you enough to think about.

所以也許這足以讓你思考。

We'll go to the next caller please.

我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

約書亞‧布查爾特 (Joshua Buchalter)，TD 考恩 (TD Cowen)。

Hey, guys.

嘿，夥計們。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I guess I wanted to follow up on the previous one you mentioned, not necessarily wanting to drain the inventory levels below the $4.5 billion levels.

我想我想跟進您提到的前一項，但不一定希望將庫存水準降至 45 億美元以下。

As we think about how you're thinking about 1Q, though, is this the level you're comfortable with and you're going to manage to the $4.5 billion?

不過，當我們思考您對第一季的看法時，這是您滿意的水平嗎？

And I guess to ask more acutely, is there a near-to-medium-term inventory target on a days basis that we should be thinking about?

我想更尖銳地問，是否有我們應該考慮的近中期日庫存目標？

Because I know that's obviously evolved through the last several years.

因為我知道這顯然是過去幾年的演變。

I'd be curious how you're thinking about it now as we sort of are chipping closer to end demand?

我很好奇，當我們正在接近最終需求時，您現在是如何看待這個問題的？

Yeah.

是的。

First, let me give you a big picture, and I will give you some specifics.

首先，我先跟大家介紹一下整體情況，然後再介紹一些具體情況。

But big picture, inventory, the goal here, the objective is to maintain high levels of customer service while we minimize the obsolescence of inventory.

但從大局來看，庫存是我們的目標，目標是維持高水準的客戶服務，同時最大限度地減少庫存的廢棄。

We have target levels at the finished goods, at the chip level, for the 80,000 parts that we sell in different end markets.

對於我們在不同終端市場銷售的 80,000 個零件，我們在成品、晶片層面設定了目標水準。

And that is done in a very rigorous and disciplined way on a part-by-part basis.

這是以非常嚴格和有紀律的方式逐個部分完成的。

So that's how we look at it.

這就是我們的看法。

And the risk of obsolescence on this part is very, very low.

而且這部分過時的風險非常非常低。

These parts last for a long time.

這些部件可以使用很久。

They sell to many, many customers for many, many years in very long life cycles.

它們在很長的生命週期中銷售給很多很多客戶很多很多年。

Now to the specific that you asked, given how we're running the factories right now, I would expect a further increase of inventory levels going into first quarter, but probably in the $100 million, $100 million plus level and then potentially stabilize at that point around that level.

現在就您所問的具體問題而言，考慮到我們目前工廠的運作情況，我預計第一季的庫存水準將進一步增加，但可能會達到1 億美元、1 億美元以上的水平，然後可能穩定在該水平指向該水平附近。

Do you have a follow-on, Josh?

你有後續嗎，喬許？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you for the color, Rafael.

謝謝你的顏色，拉斐爾。

Yes, to follow up, I want to about -- there were some earlier questions about competition, specifically in pricing.

是的，我想跟進一下——之前有一些關於競爭的問題，特別是在定價方面。

I guess I wanted to ask bigger picture, not necessarily pricing related.

我想我想問更大的情況，不一定與價格有關。

But as some of your peers have sort of gotten through and lapped and are no longer shipping to NCNRs or LTSAs, have you noticed a change in the competitive backdrop on the number of sockets that are open for competition?

但是，隨著您的一些同行已經通過並不再向 NCNR 或 LTSA 發貨，您是否注意到開放競爭的插座數量的競爭背景發生了變化？

I'd be curious to hear about if there's any big change in competitively over the last couple of quarters.

我很想知道過去幾季的競爭是否有任何重大變化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I haven't seen a significant change.

我沒有看到顯著的變化。

It feels the same to me, kind of stable.

我的感覺也是這樣，很穩定。

I mean it's -- we are in a downcycle.

我的意思是——我們正處於下行週期。

And I remember throughout my career at TI, every time there is a downcycle, the market gets more competitive, and it's still the same now.

我記得在 TI 的整個職業生涯中，每當出現下行週期時，市場的競爭就會變得更加激烈，現在仍然如此。

And that's again across all markets, all geographies, but I haven't seen any significant change in the last couple of quarters, to your direct question.

這同樣適用於所有市場、所有地區，但對於你直接提出的問題，我在過去幾季中沒有看到任何重大變化。

Thank you, Josh, and we'll -- we've got time for one last caller, please.

謝謝你，喬什，我們有時間接見最後一位來電者。

Thomas O'Malley, Barclays.

托馬斯·奧馬利，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks for letting me ask a question.

謝謝你讓我問一個問題。

This is for Haviv or Rafael.

這是給哈維夫或拉斐爾的。

Just at the capital management day, you guys highlighted different CapEx ranges depending on kind of different revenue CAGRs.

就在資本管理日，你們根據不同的收入複合年增長率強調了不同的資本支出範圍。

And I know the intention there wasn't to guide revenue.

我知道這樣做的目的不是為了引導收入。

But you just updated us on depreciation in response to just the ITC and some of the grants as well.

但您剛剛向我們通報了折舊的最新情況，以回應 ITC 和一些補助金。

Is the depreciation being at the lower end entirely a function -- or the updated guide that you're giving today entirely a function of those tax credits and grants?

處於較低端的折舊完全是一個函數嗎？

Or is that a function of potentially lower CapEx as well?

或者這也是潛在較低資本支出的功能？

It is not a function of lower CapEx.

這不是資本支出較低的結果。

We continue to expect CapEx for 2025 to be $5 billion.

我們仍預期 2025 年的資本支出為 50 億美元。

And in 2026, as we said at the last call, between $2 billion to $5 billion, depending on further expectations.

正如我們在上次電話會議中所說，到 2026 年，這一數字將在 20 億至 50 億美元之間，具體取決於進一步的預期。

And we'll have more clarity on that in the second half of the year.

我們將在今年下半年對此進行更清晰的闡述。

Yeah.

是的。

And again, I will add, this is not -- I mean, as we said in August, our plan is still -- we like the plan.

我要再次補充一點，這不是——我的意思是，正如我們在八月所說的那樣，我們的計劃仍然是——我們喜歡這個計劃。

We're going to be very disciplined in executing it.

我們將非常嚴格地執行它。

We always look at the environment and what's going on.

我們總是關注環境和正在發生的事情。

But based on what I see right now, you shouldn't expect a plan to change in terms of our Phase 1, Phase 2.

但根據我現在所看到的情況，你不應該期望我們的第一階段、第二階段計畫會改變。

As I described, Phase 1 is serving us very well.

正如我所描述的，第一階段為我們提供了很好的服務。

This is as we move revenue from external foundries into our LFAB factory in Utah.

這是因為我們將外部代工廠的收入轉移到我們位於猶他州的 LFAB 工廠。

And also on the analog side, we want most of our part planning on 300 rather than, for example, 6-inch fab that we are shutting down.

同樣在模擬方面，我們希望將大部分零件規劃在 300 工廠上，而不是我們正在關閉的 6 吋工廠。

And that's going well.

進展順利。

The Phase 2 is very important for our future.

第二階段對我們的未來非常重要。

So we are going to complete the qualification line in Sherman 1.

因此，我們將完成謝爾曼 1 號的資格線。

We are going to set the shell or build a shell in Sherman 2, and also build a shell in Lehi, so it can give us this flexible capacity phase that we are so excited about, and so are the customers.

我們將在謝爾曼 2 中設置外殼或建造一個外殼，並在李海建造一個外殼，因此它可以為我們提供這種靈活的容量階段，我們對此感到非常興奮，客戶也是如此。

Once they engage with us, they fully understand that not only they will have enough cleanroom capacity to grow into, but also the qualification is going to be behind them.

一旦他們與我們合作，他們就完全明白，他們不僅將擁有足夠的潔淨室能力來成長，而且他們的資格也將成為他們的後盾。

So their parts are already running, for example, in Sherman or in Lehi.

因此，他們的部分已經在謝爾曼或李海等地運行。

And that gives them a very, very easy path to grow their business with us without having to go through a requal and new fabs or new suppliers.

這為他們提供了一條非常非常簡單的途徑來與我們一起發展業務，而無需通過真正的新晶圓廠或新供應商。

So I think that plan serves our customers well, and we are continuing to execute to it.

所以我認為該計劃很好地服務了我們的客戶，我們將繼續執行它。

And as you said, the slide in August, and I will probably see a very similar story in a couple of weeks, is that we want to say that we have a plan, but we do always have flexibility into the plan, especially in 2026 and 2027.

正如你所說，八月份的幻燈片，我可能會在幾週內看到一個非常相似的故事，我們想說我們有一個計劃，但我們的計劃總是有靈活性，特別是在 2026 年和2027 年。

Right.

正確的。

Tom, you got a follow-up?

湯姆，你有後續行動嗎？

I do.

我願意。

Thanks for all the detail there.

感謝那裡的所有細節。

Last one of the call, so broader and hate to end it on this, but I just want to give you a chance to respond.

最後一次電話會議，範圍如此廣泛，我不想就此結束，但我只是想給你一個回應的機會。

So articles out on a China statement talking about dumping product in that market.

因此，有關中國聲明的文章談到了在該市場傾銷產品。

I think there's an ongoing debate just around the sustainability of China longer term.

我認為圍繞中國長期可持續性的爭論一直在持續。

I guess part of this question is can you just address what you've seen in the public there?

我想這個問題的一部分是你能談談你在公眾那裡看到的情況嗎？

And then kind of the derivative of that, you're obviously growing year over year in China.

隨之而來的是，你在中國的業績顯然逐年成長。

You're seeing strength in China auto.

你看到了中國汽車的實力。

You highlighted that.

你強調了這一點。

But outside of that, are you seeing any change in the dynamic there in terms of your ability to ship product, competition, just addressing the whole debate.

但除此之外，您是否看到在交付產品的能力、競爭以及解決整個辯論方面的動態發生了任何變化。

Yeah.

是的。

And again, I'll probably not settle the debate; I'll just tell you what we see.

再說一次，我可能不會解決這場爭論；我只是告訴你我們所看到的。

And I'll start with a high level in China.

我將從中國的高水準開始。

It's an important market.

這是一個重要的市場。

China represents 20% more or less of world GDP, and you want to play in that market.

中國的 GDP 佔世界總量的 20% 左右，你想參與這個市場。

By the way, our business in 2024 in China was at about 20%.

對了，我們2024年在中國的業務大概是20%左右。

So we are kind of not over or underpenetrated in China, it's kind of just right at 20%.

所以我們在中國的滲透率並沒有過度或不足，剛好在 20%。

And our commitment is to our customers.

我們的承諾是對客戶的承諾。

Our customers in China, they rely on our parts.

我們在中國的客戶依賴我們的零件。

They want to have the best products.

他們想要擁有最好的產品。

They want to have the highest quality.

他們想要擁有最高的品質。

They want to get best service.

他們希望獲得最好的服務。

And TI is a good supplier.

而TI是一家不錯的供應商。

And on top of it, their ambition is to be global players, right?

最重要的是，他們的目標是成為全球參與者，對嗎？

So maybe they are part of the headquarters in China, but they want to sell their end equipment to any geography.

因此，也許他們是中國總部的一部分，但他們想將終端設備出售給任何地區。

And in that sense, TI is a great supplier because we are a global player.

從這個意義上說，TI 是一家出色的供應商，因為我們是一家全球性企業。

We have a diverse footprint of manufacturing and support structure.

我們擁有多元化的製造和支持結構。

And that's a great fit for their needs.

這非常適合他們的需求。

Now as you know, and I think this is not news, the China end market has always been competitive, and it's continuing to be.

如您所知，我認為這不是什麼新聞，中國終端市場一直競爭激烈，而且這種競爭還將持續下去。

We know that they are very capable, motivated, fast-moving competition.

我們知道他們是非常有能力、積極主動、行動迅速的競爭對手。

But I think the competitive advantages of TI allows us to compete, whether it's our broad portfolio, the reach of the channel and also our position in industrial and automotive, customers value that and want to continue to do business with TI.

但我認為 TI 的競爭優勢使我們能夠競爭，無論是我們廣泛的產品組合、通路的覆蓋範圍以及我們在工業和汽車領域的地位，客戶都重視這一點，並希望繼續與 TI 開展業務。

And we want to compete, and that's really the fact that we own our manufacturing, own our technology.

我們想要競爭，事實上我們擁有我們的製造，擁有我們的技術。

I think we have the right cost structure to compete across our entire portfolio, whether it's low AUP general-purpose parts or very integrated sophisticated ASSPs that are tailored for a specific application.

我認為我們擁有合適的成本結構來在整個產品組合中進行競爭，無論是低 AUP 通用零件還是針對特定應用量身定制的高度整合的複雜 ASSP。

We don't need to sub select.

我們不需要子選擇。

We want to compete across our portfolio, and our customers there appreciate that.

我們希望在我們的產品組合中競爭，我們的客戶對此表示讚賞。

And I continue to see that.

我繼續看到這一點。

Specifically to your question, at this time, we haven't been notified about an investigation, and it's kind of business as usual between us and our customers in China.

具體到你的問題，目前我們還沒有收到有關調查的通知，我們和中國客戶之間的業務一切照常。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for asking that question, Tom.

謝謝你問這個問題，湯姆。

And thank you, everyone else, for joining us tonight.

感謝大家今晚加入我們。

We look forward to sharing our capital management call on Tuesday, February 4, at 10 a.m. Central time.

我們期待在中部時間 2 月 4 日星期二上午 10 點分享我們的資本管理電話會議。

A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website.

我們的網站很快就會提供這次電話會議的重播。

Good evening.

晚安.

Thank you.

謝謝。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束，大家可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。