德州儀器 (TXN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Dave Pahl, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer Haviv Ilan and our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

歡迎參加德州儀器 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起出席的還有我們的首席執行官哈維夫·伊蘭 (Haviv Ilan) 和首席財務官拉斐爾·利扎迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路直播，您可以透過我們的網站存取。此外，今天的通話內容已被錄音，並可透過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致 TI 的績效與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的前瞻性聲明的通知，以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

I would like to provide some information that's important to your calendars. On Tuesday, February 4, at 10 a.m. Central time, we will have our capital management call. Similar to what we've done in the past, Haviv, Rafael, and I will share our approach to capital allocation and summarize our progress as we prepare for the opportunity ahead.

我想提供一些對您的日曆很重要的資訊。2 月 4 日星期二，中部時間上午 10 點，我們將召開資本管理電話會議。與我們過去所做的類似，哈維夫、拉斐爾和我將分享我們的資本配置方法，並總結我們的進展，為未來的機會做好準備。

Moving on, today we'll provide the following updates. First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, he'll provide insight into fourth quarter revenue results, with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Haviv will then provide the annual summary of revenue breakout by end market. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the first quarter of 2025.

接下來，今天我們將提供以下更新。首先，Haviv 將簡要概述本季的情況。接下來，他將深入介紹第四季度的收入結果，並提供一些有關終端市場的詳細資訊。隨後，Haviv 將提供按終端市場劃分的年度收入摘要。最後，拉斐爾將介紹 2025 年第一季的財務表現和預期。

With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

說完這些，讓我把它交給哈維夫。

Thanks, Dave. Let me start with a quick overview of the fourth quarter. Revenue was $4 billion, a decrease of 3% sequentially and 2% from the same quarter a year ago. Analog revenue grew 2% year over year, after eight quarters of decline. Embedded processing declined 18% and our Other segment grew from the year-ago quarter.

謝謝，戴夫。首先讓我簡單回顧一下第四季的情況。營收為 40 億美元，比上一季下降 3%，比去年同期下降 2%。經過八個季度的下滑後，模擬收入年增了 2%。嵌入式處理業務下降了 18%，而我們的其他部門較去年同期有所成長。

Now, I'll provide some insight into our fourth quarter revenue by end market. Our overall results reflect the performance from our two largest markets, industrial and automotive, with some modest sequential declines.

現在，我將按終端市場介紹我們第四季的收入。我們的整體業績反映了我們最大的兩個市場——工業和汽車——的表現，但環比略有下降。

Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it is more informative at this time.

與上一季類似，我將專注於連續表現，因為此時它更具參考價值。

First, the industrial market was down low-single digits. The automotive market was down mid-single digits. Personal electronics grew mid-single digits. Next, enterprise systems declined low-single digits. And lastly, communication equipment grew upper-single digits.

首先，工業市場下滑幅度僅為個位數。汽車市場下滑了中個位數。個人電子產品銷售量成長了中等個位數。接下來，企業系統下降了個位數。最後，通訊設備實現了個位數的成長。

In addition, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market. As a percentage of revenue for 2024, industrial was 34%; automotive, 35%; personal electronics, 20%; enterprise systems, 5%; communication equipment, 4%; and other was 2%.

此外，正如我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣，我將按終端市場描述我們的收入。以 2024 年的收入百分比計算，工業佔 34%；汽車，35%；個人電子產品，20%；企業系統，5%；通訊設備，4%；其他為2%。

In 2024, industrial and automotive combined made up about 70% of TI's revenue, up from 42% in 2013. We see good opportunities in all of our markets, but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive. Our customers across all regions are increasingly turning to analog and embedded technology to make their end products more reliable, more affordable, and lower in power. This drives growing cheap content per application, or secular content growth, which will likely continue to drive faster growth in industrial and automotive.

到 2024 年，工業和汽車業務合計將佔 TI 收入的 70% 左右，高於 2013 年的 42%。我們在所有市場都看到了良好的機遇，但我們在策略上更加重視工業和汽車市場。我們各個地區的客戶越來越多地轉向模擬和嵌入式技術，以使他們的最終產品更可靠、更實惠、功耗更低。這推動了每個應用程式的廉價內容的成長，或長期內容的成長，這可能會繼續推動工業和汽車領域的更快成長。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的展望。

Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，哈維夫，大家下午好。

As Haviv mentioned, fourth quarter revenue was $4 billion.

正如哈維夫所提到的，第四季的收入為 40 億美元。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.3 billion, or 58% of revenue. Sequentially, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue, higher depreciation and reduced factory loadings. Gross profit margin decreased 190 basis points.

本季毛利為 23 億美元，佔營收的 58%。環比而言，毛利下降主要是由於收入下降、折舊增加和工廠負載減少。毛利率下降190個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $937 million, up 4% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.8 billion, or 24% of revenue.

本季營運費用為 9.37 億美元，比去年同期成長 4%，與預期大致相符。過去 12 個月，營運費用為 38 億美元，佔營收的 24%。

Operating profit was $1.4 billion in the quarter, or 34% of revenue. And profit was down 10% from a year-ago quarter.

本季營業利潤為 14 億美元，佔營收的 34%。利潤較去年同期下降了 10%。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $1.2 billion, or $1.30 per share. Earnings per share included a 2-cent benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

第四季淨收入為 12 億美元，即每股 1.30 美元。每股收益包括我們最初指導中未包含的項目的 2 美分收益。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，首先從我們的現金產生開始。

Cash flow from operations was $2 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in the quarter.

本季經營活動現金流為 20 億美元。本季資本支出為 12 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $537 million of our stock. We also increased our dividend per share by 5% in the fourth quarter, marking our 21st consecutive year of dividend increases. In total, we have returned $5.7 billion in the past 12 months to owners.

本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息並回購了價值 5.37 億美元的股票。我們還在第四季將每股股息提高了 5%，這是我們連續第 21 年增加股息。總體而言，我們在過去 12 個月內向股東返還了 57 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $7.6 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter. Total debt outstanding was $13.7 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.79%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，第四季末現金和短期投資為 76 億美元。未償還債務總額為 137 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.79%。

Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.5 billion, up $231 million from the prior quarter, and days were 241, up 10 days sequentially.

本季末庫存為 45 億美元，較上一季增加 2.31 億美元，庫存天數為 241 天，較上一季增加 10 天。

Now, let's look at some of these results for the year.

現在，讓我們來看看今年的一些成果。

In 2024, cash flow from operations was $6.3 billion, and capital expenditures were $4.8 billion, as expected. We're nearly 70% through a six-year elevated CapEx cycle that, once complete, will uniquely position TI to deliver dependable, low-cost, 300mm capacity at scale to meet customer demand.

2024年，營運現金流為63億美元，資本支出為48億美元，符合預期。我們已經完成了近 70% 的六年期資本支出週期，一旦完成，TI 將處於獨特的地位，能夠大規模提供可靠、低成本的 300 毫米產能，以滿足客戶的需求。

Free cash flow for 2024 was $1.5 billion, or 10% of revenue. Our free cash flow reflects the strength of our business model as well as our decisions to invest in 300mm manufacturing assets and inventory to support our overall objective to maximize long-term free cash flow per share, which we believe is the primary driver of long-term value.

2024 年的自由現金流為 15 億美元，佔營收的 10%。我們的自由現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力以及我們投資 300 毫米製造資產和庫存的決策，以支持我們最大化每股長期自由現金流的總體目標，我們相信這是長期價值的主要驅動力。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.74 billion to $4.06 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $0.94 to $1.16.

展望第一季度，我們預計 TI 營收將在 37.4 億美元至 40.6 億美元之間，每股收益將在 0.94 美元至 1.16 美元之間。

Based on current tax law, we now expect our effective tax rate for 2025 to be about 12%.

根據現行稅法，我們預計 2025 年的有效稅率約為 12%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。我們將透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來繼續加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠長期繼續實現每股自由現金流的成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we’ll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up.

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開熱線來回答問題了。為了讓盡可能多的人有機會提問，請將問題限制在一個範圍內。我們回覆後，會提供您進一步跟進的機會。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi, good afternoon, and thank you so much for taking the question. First one for Haviv. You're guiding Q1 revenue down, I think, 2% to 3% sequentially. I was hoping you could maybe provide some color by end market, what you're seeing on a sequential basis?

大家好，下午好，非常感謝您回答這個問題。第一個是 Haviv。我認為您預計第一季營收將環比下降 2% 至 3%。我希望您能提供一些終端市場的情況，您看到的是怎麼樣的？

You guys were quite helpful last quarter, diving deep into automotive, what you're seeing in China, et cetera, et cetera. So any color, any standouts to the upside or downside relative to what's typical seasonality would be very helpful. Thank you.

上個季度你們提供了很大的幫助，深入研究了汽車產業、中國的情況等等。因此，任何顏色、任何相對於典型季節性而言突出的上行或下行特徵都會非常有幫助。謝謝。

Okay. Thanks, Toshiya. So again, for Q1, as you said, about 3%, I think, sequential, which is -- I would describe it as a seasonal decline for Q1. I will say that typically, in Q1, what we do see is the personal electronics market would usually show quite a significant decline, just seasonality. And we did have a pretty decent Q4 for PE. So I think that's what we expect there.

好的。謝謝，Toshiya。所以，對於第一季度，正如您所說，我認為環比下降約 3%，也就是 - 我將其描述為第一季的季節性下降。我想說的是，通常在第一季度，我們確實會看到個人電子產品市場出現相當明顯的下滑，這只是季節性現象。我們的 PE 第四季表現確實相當不錯。所以我認為這就是我們所期望的。

And typically, also, if you look at the markets like automotive, industrial, the decline should be less pronounced there. So that's kind of my expectation. Nothing specific that I would add on markets.

而且通常情況下，如果你看看汽車、工業等市場，你會發現這些市場的下滑幅度應該比較不明顯。這就是我的期望。關於市場我沒有什麼特別要補充的。

I will provide a little bit more color on Q4, especially in our two main markets, industrial and automotive. I think, again, they behaved similarly like the overall company in Q4 and also similar to what we've seen in Q3, but maybe with some -- a little bit -- small changes.

我將對第四季度提供更多細節，特別是在我們的兩個主要市場——工業和汽車。我認為，他們的表現與第四季的整體公司表現類似，也與我們在第三季看到的類似，但可能有一些——一點點——小的變化。

So if I start with the industrial market, as I described I think during the last call, most of the sectors that are kind of hovering at the bottom, maybe found the bottom. And then there are a couple of sectors that are still showing larger declines, especially industrial automation and the energy infrastructure market that has still not found its, I believe -- uh the bottom. We'll have to see what the first half of '25 has planned for that.

因此，如果我從工業市場開始，正如我在上次電話會議中所描述的那樣，我認為大多數徘徊在底部的行業可能已經觸底。還有一些行業仍然呈現較大幅度的下滑，特別是工業自動化和能源基礎設施市場，我認為它們還沒有找到底部。我們必須看看 25 年上半年對此有何計劃。

And on the automotive market, similar to Q3, we did see kind of a pretty significant weakness, maybe with the -- maybe outside of China. So it declined about mid-single digit, about 5% sequentially. But China did grow, but not enough to offset the declines in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, which is very -- it was kind of similar to what we've seen in Q3, but maybe the growth in China was less pronounced and the decline outside of China was more pronounced. That would be my high-level summary for Q4 and a little bit for Q1.

在汽車市場，與第三季類似，我們確實看到了相當明顯的疲軟，也許是在中國以外。因此，它下降了大約個位數的中段，環比下降了約 5%。但中國確實有所成長，但不足以抵銷歐洲、美國和日本的下滑，這與我們在第三季看到的情況非常相似，但中國的成長可能不那麼明顯，而中國以外的下滑更為明顯。以上就是我對第四季的總結以及對第一季的一點小總結。

Do you have a follow-up, Toshiya?

您還有後續消息嗎，Toshiya？

I do, Dave. Thanks so much. The earnings outlook for Q1, Haviv, there's a pretty significant drop off on a sequential basis for a 2% to 3% decline in revenue. I was hoping you could kind of provide some context there. Is it primarily gross margin? And behind that, is it continued underloadings, increase in depreciation, some of the same dynamics we saw over the past 12 months? Or is it higher OpEx? Anything below the line? Any sort of additional color on sort of the drop-off in EPS for Q4 to Q1, that would be helpful.

是的，戴夫。非常感謝。Haviv 第一季的獲利前景，與上一季相比，營收將出現 2% 至 3% 的大幅下降。我希望您能提供一些背景資訊。主要是毛利率嗎？在這背後，是否是持續的負荷不足、貶值的增加，以及我們在過去 12 個月中看到的一些相同的動態？還是營運成本更高？這條線以下還有什麼嗎？如果能提供任何有關第四季度每股收益相對於第一季度下降的補充信息，那將會很有幫助。

Sure. I think I covered revenue; Rafael, maybe you cover the other part there.

當然。我認為我已經涵蓋了收入；拉斐爾，也許你負責那裡的另一部分。

Yeah, happy to. Okay. So maybe let me start with GPM, and then I'll go to OpEx, and then I'll go to the other income line, which is relevant this time.

是的，很高興。好的。因此，也許讓我從 GPM 開始，然後我會轉到 OpEx，然後我會轉到另一條收入線，這與這次有關。

So on gross margins, keep in mind that depreciation is increasing, first of all. Second, well, revenue is decreasing. That has an impact. Then depreciation is increasing. And then we are -- in order to manage inventory, we are reducing factory loadings. We've reduced some of that in fourth quarter, but we're going to reduce those further in first quarter. So I do expect GPM percent to decrease probably a few hundred basis points fourth quarter to first quarter.

因此，就毛利率而言，首先要記住折舊正在增加。第二，收入正在減少。這會產生影響。然後折舊就會增加。然後我們——為了管理庫存，我們正在減少工廠負荷。我們在第四季已經減少了一些開支，但我們將在第一季進一步減少開支。因此我確實預計第四季的毛利率百分比可能會比第一季下降幾百個基點。

Then let me comment on OpEx. OpEx will increase 3% to 5% fourth to first, and that's kind of normal seasonal increases that happen in first quarter on OpEx in addition to the overall increases in investments that we're making. Beyond that, this time it's relevant that interest income is decreasing by about $50 million. The reason that is happening is short-term interest rates are decreasing, and that's where we invest our cash. And our cash on the balance sheet, cash levels, are also decreasing. So a combination of lower interest rates and lower cash gives you a significant drop in other income. So that's, in this case, about $50 million less going to first quarter.

那麼讓我來評論一下 OpEx。第四季至第一季度，營運支出將成長 3% 至 5%，這是第一季營運支出的正常季節性成長，此外，我們還在增加整體投資。除此之外，這次利息收入減少了約 5,000 萬美元。造成這種情況的原因是短期利率正在下降，而這正是我們投資現金的地方。我們的資產負債表上的現金、現金水準也在減少。因此，較低的利率和較低的現金會導致您的其他收入大幅下降。因此，在這種情況下，第一季的資金減少了約 5000 萬美元。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索（Chris Caso），沃爾夫研究公司。

Yeah, thank you. I guess first question would be with regard to the Embedded business. And we're seeing a sharp divergence there between those two businesses, particularly on the margin side. Can you give some explanation of what's going on between the Analog and the Embedded businesses, and is the reason for the decline the Embedded margins?

是的，謝謝。我想第一個問題是關於嵌入式業務的。我們發現這兩項業務之間存在巨大差異，特別是在利潤方面。您能否解釋一下模擬業務和嵌入式業務之間的情況？嵌入式利潤率下降的原因是什麼？

Chris, let me just say a few words on the revenue side, and I'll let Rafael talk about the margins over there. So again, Embedded and Analog a little bit are -- like many of the phenomena we see regarding markets, geographies, we are seeing asynchronous behavior between these two markets.

克里斯，讓我就收入方面講幾句，然後讓拉斐爾談談那邊的利潤率。因此，嵌入式和模擬有點像——就像我們看到的許多有關市場、地理的現像一樣，我們看到這兩個市場之間存在異步行為。

As you remember, Embedded -- our Embedded business -- grew in 2023, while our Analog business in '23 declined double digits. So we saw a later peak -- about a year later on Embedded; that's the reason we see a sharper decline in Embedded right now, while Analog in Q4 actually grew. So I think Analog is about a year maybe ahead on Embedded in terms of the cyclical behavior.

大家還記得，嵌入式——我們的嵌入式業務——在 2023 年實現了成長，而我們的模擬業務在 2023 年則下降了兩位數。因此，我們看到了後來的高峰——大約一年後，嵌入式領域出現了高峰；這就是我們現在看到嵌入式產品急劇下降，而第四季度模擬產品實際上卻成長的原因。因此我認為，就週期性行為而言，模擬技術可能比嵌入式技術領先一年左右。

Regarding profitability, Rafael, I'm sure it's related to LFAB, but you go.

關於盈利能力，拉斐爾，我確信這與 LFAB 有關，但你去吧。

That's absolutely right. Yes. So the profitability, Embedded first, is revenue. As revenue drops, that clearly has an impact on profitability. But the second part that is different than Analog is that Embedded is taking a disproportionate impact due to LFAB, the Lehi factory in Utah. Because that factory, while it's going to serve both Embedded and is serving both Embedded and Analog, but it disproportionately serves Embedded. And since it's underutilized right now, it takes that hit from that underutilization, and factory loading affects Embedded disproportionately.

完全正確。是的。因此，嵌入式的獲利能力首先是營收。隨著收入下降，這顯然會對獲利能力產生影響。但與模擬不同的是，嵌入式由於猶他州利希工廠 LFAB 而受到不成比例的影響。因為工廠雖然同時服務嵌入式系統，也同時服務嵌入式系統和類比系統，但它對嵌入式系統的服務比例過高。由於目前利用率不足，它會受到利用率不足的打擊，並且工廠負載對嵌入式系統的影響尤其嚴重。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

克里斯，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. Got it. That's helpful. I guess the follow-up question would be some update on what's going on in China right now. You had spoken about, I guess, the auto business, again, is stronger there.

是的。知道了。這很有幫助。我想後續的問題是關於中國目前的情況的最新消息。我想，您剛才提到了那裡的汽車業務更加強勁。

Perhaps you could talk about the rest of the business that you're seeing in China, in the industrial business, for example. And we know that you've been taking some actions to kind of take back some of the share that you may have lost when your lead times were longer. Could you give us an update on that and how that may be affecting some of the numbers in the near term?

或許您可以談談您在中國看到的其他業務，例如工業業務。我們知道，您已經採取了一些措施來收回由於交貨時間較長而可能損失的部分份額。您能否向我們介紹一下最新情況以及這可能會對短期內的一些數據產生什麼影響？

Sure. So first, high level, our China business in Q4 did grow both sequentially, but also year over year. I think it was mid-teens or in that area for the entire China business.

當然。首先，從總體上看，我們第四季的中國業務不僅實現了環比成長，而且同比增長。我認為整個中國業務的利潤率都在十五六歲左右。

I think the automotive strength, we talked about it last quarter. We're seeing the same phenomenon, meaning customers are continuing to do well. And there is a bigger share for the EV vehicle type in China, which has higher content. So secular growth is helping us in China on the automotive side.

我認為汽車產業的實力，我們上個季度討論過這個問題。我們看到了同樣的現象，這意味著客戶繼續表現良好。其中，中國電動車佔比更大，含量更高。因此，長期成長對我們在中國的汽車業務有幫助。

But you also see -- and I think we mentioned it also in the previous calls -- that we had some supply limitations during the upcycle in China. And the personal electronics market was one of the main markets that suffered when we were short. We are seeing this market growing in China. It grew sequentially again nicely in Q3, but also year over year, that market grew significantly in China and also in the U.S. These are the main markets that we have our personal electronics businesses.

但您也看到——我想我們在之前的電話會議中也提到過——在中國經濟上升週期中，我們遇到了一些供應限制。個人電子產品市場是我們遭遇短缺時遭受損失的主要市場之一。我們看到這個市場在中國正在成長。第三季度，它的銷售額不僅環比成長良好，而且同比也大幅成長，中國和美國市場都是如此。這些是我們個人電子業務的主要市場。

So overall, again, overall business in China right now is healthy.

所以整體而言，目前中國的整體業務是健康的。

You asked about industrial, we haven't seen yet the start of the cyclical growth again in industrial across all of our geographies. So China here is not an outlier. The strength is coming mainly from, I would say, automotive and from personal electronics.

您問到工業問題，我們還沒有看到所有地區的工業再次開始週期性成長。因此，中國並不是一個例外。我想說，這種優勢主要來自於汽車和個人電子產品。

Yeah. And let me just add a little color. U.S., China and really rest of Asia is really more flat, to describe it sequentially. Europe and Japan were down low-double digits. As Haviv mentioned, if you look year on year, you see the U.S. and China up kind of 12%, 14% in that range. And that growth was offset overall by declines in the other regions.

是的。讓我添加一點顏色。如果按順序來描述的話，美國、中國和亞洲其他地區的情況實際上比較平穩。歐洲和日本的銷售額均下降了兩位數。正如哈維夫所提到的，如果按年比較，你會發現美國和中國的成長率都在 12% 到 14% 之間。而這一增長總體上被其他地區的下滑所抵消。

Great. Okay. Thank you, Chris, and we'll go to the next caller, please.

偉大的。好的。謝謝您，克里斯，請接聽下一位來電。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Hi, guys. Thanks for having a question. I want to ask about the pricing environment in general. You didn't mention that, Rafael or Haviv, in any of your discussions about gross margin or the competitive environment or any of the sequential weakness. But just wondered if that has changed in any meaningful way, either Analog versus Embedded or in certain geographies? Just any update on that front would be helpful.

嗨，大家好。感謝您提出問題。我想詢問一下整體的定價環境。拉斐爾 (Rafael) 或哈維夫 (Haviv)，在你們關於毛利率、競爭環境或任何連續弱點的討論中都沒有提到這一點。但只是想知道這是否發生了任何有意義的變化，無論是模擬還是嵌入式還是在某些地區？關於這方面的任何更新都會有所幫助。

Yeah. In high level, the pricing environment is not -- we've not seen any change in Q4 versus what we’ve seen in 2024. I think we've expected -- I think we said in the beginning of '24 that pricing will go back to previous behavior, pre-COVID, where pricing will decline low-single digits like-for-like parts per year. And that's more or less what it did in 2024 as the year ended.

是的。從高層次來看，定​​價環境不是——與 2024 年相比，我們沒有看到第四季有任何變化。我想我們已經預料到了——我想我們在 24 年初就說過，價格將恢復到 COVID 之前的水平，即同類零件價格每年將下降個位數。2024 年年末，它的表現基本上也是如此。

Of course I think I did provide some color on revenue by market. The mix has changed, right? So the selling price, if you will, has changed, because industrial in '23 was 40% of revenue. It declined to 34% in '24, and the PE market grew from 15% in '23 to 20% in '24. And that is a big change of mix, if you will.

當然，我認為我確實提供了一些有關市場收入的資訊。混合物已經變了，對嗎？因此，如果你願意的話，銷售價格已經發生了變化，因為 1923 年工業收入佔了 40%。到 2024 年，這一比例下降至 34%，而 PE 市場則從 2023 年的 15% 增長至 2024 年的 20%。如果你願意的話，這是一個巨大的改變。

And that's what we have seen. But the like-for-like parts has behaved as expected. And I'm not expecting that to be different in 2025, and that's a comment to go across all geographies.

這就是我們所看到的。但同類部分的表現符合預期。我並不認為 2025 年的情況會有所不同，這一評論適用於所有地區。

Yes. Do you have follow-on, Ross?

是的。羅斯，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yeah, I do. A little bit of a longer-term question maybe for Haviv. Historically, the company has talked about share gains and losses in your markets being measured in basis points. I think, 15, 20, 25 basis points a year. Given the fragmented nature of it, it was kind of what you would aspire to.

是的，我知道。對哈維夫來說，這可能是個比較長期的問題。從歷史上看，該公司曾談到您所在市場的股票收益和損失是以基點來衡量的。我認為，每年 15、20、25 個基點。考慮到它的碎片化性質，這正是你所追求的。

It can, of course, go down or up, I guess, for kind of idio reasons -- supply shocks, those sorts of things. But now that you have supply, it seems like the world has plenty of supply, is there any reason that, that historical share gain pace would be different going forward?

當然，我猜，它可能會下降或上升，因為一些愚蠢的原因——供應衝擊，諸如此類的事情。但現在有了供應，似乎世界供應充足，有什麼理由導致歷史份額成長速度在未來有所不同嗎？

Again, when we talk about share down or up, I think the only way to really measure it is over the long term. That's always been our approach. That's the way we run the company. That's the way we behave, right?

再說一次，當我們談論份額下降或上升時，我認為真正衡量它的唯一方法是長期的。這始終是我們的做法。這就是我們經營公司的方式。這就是我們的行為方式，對嗎？

So TI, yes, there was a lot of, I would say, a shock wave almost during COVID. It was not only supply/demand mismatch, but behavior of customers and almost anxiety of needing parts. So I think inventory was built. And I think it's still playing out. I wouldn't say that this asynchronous behavior across markets is done. We see it still across sectors in industrial. We see it differently between geographies. We even see it internally between our Embedded business and Analog business. So it's one of these things -- and I kind of hate to say it, but time will tell where we are.

是的，我想說，TI 在 COVID 期間幾乎受到了巨大的衝擊。這不僅是供需不匹配，而且是客戶的行為以及對需要零件的焦慮。所以我認為庫存已經建立。我認為它仍在繼續。我不會說這種跨市場異步行為已經完成。我們仍然看到它存在於工業的各個領域。我們對不同地區的看法不同。我們甚至在嵌入式業務和模擬業務之間也看到了這一點。所以這就是其中之一——我有點不想這麼說，但時間會告訴我們現在的情況。

I am excited about the fact that now we have the right inventory level, the right supply to support growth. I'm encouraged about our progress in the analog market. As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we did grow the Analog business on a year-over-year perspective in Q4. It was a couple of points of growth, but after about eight quarters of decline. And I think we -- I look forward to continue to grow that business, especially when you think about the longer term. And most importantly, the secular growth in the market that we've mentioned, industrial and automotive, I'm convinced that it's there. I'm convinced that our product portfolio is improving and strengthening. And we will have the right level of capacity and inventory to support our customers. So obviously, expectation, that I have for the team, is TI will continue to compete for market share and grow it.

我很高興我們現在擁有適當的庫存水準和適當的供應來支持成長。我對我們在模擬市場的進展感到鼓舞。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們的模擬業務在第四季度確實實現了同比增長。雖然實現了幾個點的成長，但之前大約八個季度的下滑卻持續。我認為我們—我期待繼續發展這項業務，特別是當你考慮長遠時。最重要的是，我們提到的工業和汽車市場的長期成長，我相信它是存在的。我確信我們的產品組合正在不斷改善和加強。我們將擁有適當的產能和庫存來支持我們的客戶。因此，顯然，我對團隊的期望是 TI 將繼續爭奪市場份額並擴大其份額。

Thank you, Ross. Can we go to next caller, please.

謝謝你，羅斯。請問我們可以接聽下一位來電嗎？

Chris Danely, Citi.

花旗銀行的克里斯丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

Haviv, I guess, just a little bit of a drill down on the end markets. How would you expect things to sort of play out this year? Maybe talk about where you would expect relative strength or not strength by the end markets? And have you seen -- would you say you've seen any change in business conditions over the last three months, like better, worse or not really?

我想，Haviv 只是對終端市場進行了一點深入研究。您預計今年的情況會如何發展？也許可以談談您預期終端市場會相對走強還是不走強？您是否看到—您是否認為過去三個月內商業環境發生了任何變化，例如變好、變壞還是沒有變化？

Yeah. Chris, as I think I told you last time we met, we call it when we see it. Meaning, I can tell you what happened; it's very hard for us tell you exactly what will happen, even for this quarter, I think I mentioned even during the last call, lead times are short. Customers are coming real time for demand. And our turn business, or what we call age in, is running high right now simply because customers are almost waiting for the last second before they make the order. And we fulfill it, because we do have the right level of inventory and of course capacity to support further growth.

是的。克里斯，我想上次見面時我告訴過你，當我們看到它時，我們就稱呼它。意思是，我可以告訴你發生了什麼；我們很難確切地告訴您會發生什麼，即使是這個季度，我想我在上次通話中提到過，交貨時間也很短。客戶正在即時滿足需求。我們的輪調業務，或我們所說的年齡，現在非常繁忙，只是因為客戶幾乎都在等待最後一秒才下訂單。我們實現了這一目標，因為我們確實擁有適當的庫存水平，當然還有支持進一步增長的能力。

I will say that I think that some of the markets -- and we've seen it through 2024 -- they are already on the cyclical upturn. I.e., we saw it in PE, then enterprise, really driven by data center joined, and we are seeing nice growth over there. And even the communications business, I would say that I think it found the bottom. We saw it somewhere, I think, in Q1 of '24 and grew sequentially since then and even returned to year-over-year growth in Q4. So these three markets, I think they are on the upturn. And I don't think that -- I expect at least that, if nothing major changes, to continue into 2025.

我想說的是，我認為某些市場——我們已經看到這一點，直到 2024 年——它們已經處於週期性上升階段。也就是說，我們在 PE 中看到了它，然後是企業，真正由資料中心加入驅動，我們在那裡看到了良好的成長。甚至對於通訊業務來說，我想說它已經觸底了。我認為，我們在 2024 年第一季就看到了這種情況，從那時起，它就一直處於連續增長狀態，甚至在第四季度恢復了同比增長。因此我認為這三個市場正在好轉。我不認為——至少我預計，如果沒有重大變化，這種情況會持續到 2025 年。

The big question for us is also 75% of our business -- or 70% of our business in 2024 is industrial and automotive. And here, we haven't seen the bottom yet. Let's be very clear about that. We're seeing points of strength. I've given China as an example, but we'll have to see how the year play out. I do believe at least on the industrial side that there is kind of, as I said last time, kind of this hovering at a low level. It's a great position to grow from. But we'll just have to wait and see when it wants to do it, Chris. And of course, when we see it, we'll say it.

對我們來說，最大的問題是我們的 75% 的業務——或者 2024 年的 70% 的業務來自工業和汽車領域。而現在，我們還沒有看到底部。讓我們明確這一點。我們看到了優勢。我以中國為例，但我們還得看看今年的情況如何。我確實相信，至少在工業方面，正如我上次所說的那樣，這種狀況徘徊在低水平。這是一個有利於成長的職位。但是我們只能等待，看看它什麼時候會這麼做，克里斯。當然，當我們看到它時，我們就會說出來。

A follow-on, Chris?

繼續吧，克里斯？

Sure. Just quickly on Embedded. So it looks like you guys have the lowest margins there in I think over a decade or something like that. Does something need to be changed or restructured there to get Embedded back to an adequate level of margins? Or maybe talk about what needs to be done to get it to some sort of an appreciable level of margin?

當然。只是快速進入嵌入式。因此看起來你們的利潤率是十多年來最低的。是否需要進行一些改變或重組才能使嵌入式系統恢復到足夠的利潤水準？或者也許討論一下需要做什麼才能達到某種可觀的利潤水平？

Yeah. Let me take a quick high-level answer, Chris, and Rafael will give a little bit more what's going on there. I think you're seeing a business in transition, Chris. I'm growing more excited about Embedded every quarter. I think our portfolio is strengthening, and we are winning business.

是的。讓我快速給出一個高層次的回答，克里斯，拉斐爾會提供更多關於那裡發生的事情的資訊。克里斯，我認為你看到的是一個處於轉型期的企業。每個季度我都對嵌入式越來越感興趣。我認為我們的產品組合正在加強，而且我們正在贏得業務。

We are going through a transition, especially on the manufacturing side. And that puts pressure on the margins. But we are convinced that strategically Embedded is going to be a great contributor to free cash flow per share. And so the short answer to your question about restructuring or anything. The answer is no.

我們正在經歷轉型，特別是在製造業方面。這給利潤帶來了壓力。但我們確信，策略性嵌入式將為每股自由現金流做出巨大貢獻。所以對於您關於重組或其他問題，我的回答很簡短。答案是否定的。

Rafael, maybe you can provide some more color on what's going on there.

拉斐爾，也許你可以提供一些關於那裡發生的事情的詳細資訊。

Yeah. No. I'll just add, similar to what I said in a few calls -- a few questions ago. One is the revenue is the main factor. As Haviv talked about earlier in the call, Embedded has seen a sharp decline because it took longer to get into the downturn than Analog did. But if you look at peak-to-trough, they're about the same place, Analog and Embedded.

是的。不。我只想補充一點，類似我在幾個電話會議——幾個問題之前所說的內容。一是收入是主要因素。正如哈維夫在電話會議早些時候談到的那樣，嵌入式系統之所以出現急劇下滑，是因為它比模擬系統花了更長的時間才進入衰退期。但如果你觀察峰谷，它們大約位於同一位置，模擬和嵌入式。

And then the other reason is LFAB, right? So Embedded is taking a disproportionate amount of the impact from having LFAB underutilized. But let me stress, just like that takes away, it gives it to you on the other end. So when we ramp -- as we ramp LFAB, and as we move from external to internal, you're really going to like the fall-through both to GPM, but even better to free cash flow -- as we do that.

另一個原因是 LFAB，對嗎？因此，嵌入式系統因 LFAB 未充分利用而承受了不成比例的影響。但我要強調的是，就像拿走一樣，它會在另一端把它給你。因此，當我們增加 LFAB 時，當我們從外部轉向內部時，您真的會喜歡 GPM 的下降，但甚至會喜歡自由現金流的下降——正如我們這樣做的那樣。

So Embedded is, as Haviv said, it's in transition. And when we're on the other side, we're going to like the results.

因此，正如哈維夫所說，嵌入式正處於轉型期。當我們站在另一邊時，我們會喜歡這個結果。

Thank you, Chris. And onto the next caller, please.

謝謝你，克里斯。請接聽下一位來電。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. One of the metrics we look at to gauge the health of the cycle is the number of customer pushouts, cancellations, rescheduling of the backlog relative to prior quarters or maybe big changes, right, on customer forecast inside of the quarter. Has this level of activity remained at kind of normalized levels? And then maybe on another metric we look at is turns orders. And I know, Haviv, you said it's at high levels, but -- is that coming in about as expected as well?

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我們用來衡量週期健康狀況的指標之一是客戶推遲、取消的數量、相對於前幾季的積壓重新安排的數量，或者可能是本季度內客戶預測的重大變化。這種活動量是否維持在正常水準？然後我們可能要看的另一個指標是轉彎順​​序。我知道，哈維夫，您說的是高水平，但是——這也符合預期嗎？

Yeah. Let me start with the second part of the question. I'll let Dave comment about the first part. So look, we came in Q4 at the higher side of the range, close to the top of the range. That all came from what we call the turns business. So we didn't see that clog in the beginning of the quarter, and it came in real time. So we need to see that, that continues into the beginning of this year. Of course, there is Chinese New Year right now. And we just have to see that it's not -- that it's a trend rather than anything that is a one-quarter phenomenon, but the turns business looks very, very good in Q4.

是的。讓我先回答問題的第二部分。我會讓戴夫對第一部分進行評論。所以看，我們在第四季處於範圍的較高端，接近範圍的頂部。這一切都源自於我們所說的轉變業務。因此，我們在本季初並沒有看到這種堵塞，它是即時出現的。所以我們需要看到這種情況持續到今年年初。當然，現在正值中國新年。我們必須看到，這不是一種趨勢，而不是一個季度的現象，但第四季的業績看起來非常非常好。

Yeah. And Harlan, when you look at those other indicators, like you brought up cancellations, we had seen those drop several quarters ago, and they continue to be at very low levels. If you look at things like revenue linearity, revenue increase through the quarter, that's very typical for us to see that. And Haviv mentioned earlier, lead times are -- remain short.

是的。哈蘭，當您查看其他指標時，例如您提到的取消量，我們在幾個季度前就已經看到這些指標下降，並且仍然處於非常低的水平。如果你觀察收入線性、整個季度的收入成長等因素，我們會發現這是很典型的現象。Haviv 之前提到過，交貨時間仍然很短。

We have availability of essentially all of our products that we sell via the web available for immediate shipment. So customers can behave and have that confidence that they can get the product that we've got.

我們透過網路銷售的所有產品基本上都可以立即出貨。這樣，客戶就可以放心地購買我們生產的產品。

Do you have a follow-on?

您有後續訊息嗎？

Yeah. Thank you. So right before the capital management update back in August, I remember you had just received your preliminary CHIPS Act grant allocation, $1.6 billion. That number was solidified, I think, in December, and this was not contemplated in your free cash flow per share calculation. In the CHIPS Act press release, you guys articulated some of the milestones attached to those grant dollars. And it looks like actually, many of those milestones are going to be executed in or before 2026. And that's $1.6 billion in grant dollars. That drives an incremental $1.75 of free cash flow per share versus sort of what you potentially laid out in your 2026 scenario analysis. So have you mapped out that $1.6 billion in CHIPS Act grants over 2025, 2026, and maybe have an updated view on the potential better free cash flow per share profile for Texas Instruments?

是的。謝謝。因此，就在 8 月資本管理更新之前，我記得您剛剛收到了《CHIPS 法案》的初步撥款，金額為 16 億美元。我認為，這個數字在 12 月就已經確定了，但這並沒有被計入每股自由現金流的計算中。在《CHIPS 法案》新聞稿中，你們闡述了與這些撥款相關的一些里程碑。實際上，看起來許多里程碑將在 2026 年或之前實現。這就是16億美元的補助金額。這將推動每股自由現金流增加 1.75 美元，而這與您在 2026 年情境分析中可能列出的數字差不多。那麼，您是否已經規劃出 2025 年、2026 年《CHIPS 法案》撥款 16 億美元，並且可能對德州儀器每股自由現金流的潛在改善情況有最新的看法？

So let me try to answer that question. First, kind of bigger picture, as you alluded to, the Department of Commerce awarded us up to $1.6 billion in CHIPS Act funding. This will help support three of our new 300mm wafer fabs under construction in Texas and Utah. This direct funding, coupled with the ITC, will help us provide a geopolitically dependable supply of analog and embedded processing chips for years to come.

那麼讓我試著回答這個問題。首先，從更大的角度來看，正如您所提到的，商務部向我們提供了高達 16 億美元的 CHIPS 法案資金。這將有助於支持我們在德克薩斯州和猶他州正在建造的三座新的 300 毫米晶圓廠。這筆直接資金加上 ITC 將幫助我們在未來幾年提供地緣政治上可靠的模擬和嵌入式處理晶片供應。

Over the life of the -- maybe the most important point is, over the life of the program between the ITC and the direct funding, we expect to receive $7.5 billion to $9.5 billion in total. We've received some of that already in 2024 and expect 2025 and beyond to continue. We don't have any specific details to share at this point on the cash payments related to the direct funding, but as those happens, we will share those.

在整個計劃的整個生命週期中——也許最重要的一點是，在 ITC 和直接資助之間的整個計劃的整個生命週期中，我們預計總共將獲得 75 億美元至 95 億美元。我們在 2024 年已經收到了部分款項，預計 2025 年及以後還會繼續收到。目前，我們還沒有關於直接資助現金支付的具體細節可以分享，但一旦這些細節到位，我們就會分享。

I will just add that the math is not incorrect, but the timing is the problem, right? So I think, as you said, there is -- and we talked about free cash flow, so it also depends on when we get the cash -- we just don't have that visibility.

我只想補充一點，數學並沒有錯，但時間是個問題，對嗎？所以我認為，正如你所說，我們討論了自由現金流，所以這也取決於我們何時獲得現金——我們只是沒有這種可見性。

The milestones are related, as we I think mentioned, to cleanroom construction and tool installations in Sherman 1, which we are -- we started installing tools in the summer of '24, and that moved well. And the construction of SM2, the shell, which is not done yet, but it's moving well. The other part is more in Utah. It's LFAB2. This is where we talk about cleanroom construction and tool installations for LFAB2. But we are now only now starting the groundwork over there, right? So there is still quite a bit of execution in LFAB2. And we will see how that timing works as we continue to move forward on that execution.

正如我們所提到的那樣，這些里程碑與謝爾曼 1 號的無塵室建設和工具安裝有關，我們在 24 年夏天開始安裝工具，進展順利。SM2 外殼的建造尚未完成，但進展順利。另一部分更多在猶他州。這是 LFAB2。在這裡我們討論 LFAB2 的無塵室建造和工具安裝。但我們現在才剛開始那邊的基礎工作，對嗎？因此 LFAB2 中仍有相當多的執行工作。隨著我們繼續推進這項執行工作，我們將看到時間安排如何進行。

Let me add one more thing. Just given that we have been officially awarded at $1.6 billion, we already booked that on our balance sheet. So we have a $1.6 billion receivable. You can see that on the balance sheet. The other side of that, $1 billion of that, decreased our net PP&E. And because that's related to a factory that's already built. $0.6 billion of that is actually deferred liability because it's related to a factory that's not built. But the bottom line, where I'm going, is that this is already going to decrease our expected depreciation.

讓我再補充一點。鑑於我們已正式獲得 16 億美元的合同，我們已將其計入資產負債表。因此我們有 16 億美元的應收帳款。您可以在資產負債表上看到這一點。另一方面，其中 10 億美元減少了我們的淨 PP&E。因為這與已經建成的工廠有關。其中 6 億美元實際上是遞延負債，因為它與尚未建成的工廠有關。但我要說的是，底線是，這已經會降低我們預期的折舊率。

So with that, let me give you an update to depreciation. Depreciation for 2025, now you should expect $1.8 billion to $2 billion. That's slightly down from the previous expectation. And for 2026, we're keeping the range the same, $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion, but I'll tell you that we expect to be on the lower half of that range. That's a 2026 depreciation expectation, $2.3 billion to $2.7 billion to be at the lower end of that range.

因此，讓我向您介紹一下折舊的最新情況。2025 年的折舊額現在預計為 18 億美元至 20 億美元。這比之前的預期略有下降。對於 2026 年，我們將保持相同的範圍，即 23 億美元至 27 億美元，但我要告訴您，我們預計會處於該範圍的下半部分。這是對 2026 年貶值的預期，23 億美元至 27 億美元處於該範圍的低端。

Thank you, Harlan, we'll go to the next caller, please.

謝謝你，哈蘭，請接聽下一位來電。

CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

CJ Muse、康托·菲茨傑拉德。

Hey, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I know you guys are loath to talk beyond the quarter, but I was hoping you could give us a framework for thinking about gross margins beyond the March quarter.

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答這個問題。我知道你們不願意談論本季之後的事情，但我希望你們能為我們提供一個框架來思考三月季度之後的毛利率。

You just gave us the depreciation. That's very helpful. Would love to hear kind of your thoughts on what's optimal inventory and therefore planned utilization beyond March? And is the March quarter kind of low for gross margin and we should start tracking higher? Any thoughts there would be very helpful.

您剛剛告訴我們折舊額。這非常有幫助。很想聽聽您對最佳庫存的看法，以及三月以後的計劃利用率是多少？三月季度的毛利率是否有點低，我們應該開始追蹤更高的水平嗎？任何想法都會非常有幫助。

Yeah. No, happy to do that. It's going to be very similar to what I've said before, but it all starts with revenue. So revenue is the number one driver of gross margin, both dollars and percent going forward. You model your revenue, then you fall that through at 75% to 85%.

是的。不，我很樂意這麼做。這與我之前所說的非常相似，但一切都始於收入。因此，收入是毛利率的首要驅動因素，無論是美元還是百分比。你對你的收入進行建模，然後將其降低到 75% 到 85% 之間。

And then after you do that, then you have to adjust for depreciation increases. And I already gave you the depreciation numbers, so you can model that in the future. This works much better if you do full years and do it over the long term, rather than any given quarter.

完成此操作後，您必須根據折舊增加進行調整。我已經給了你折舊數字，所以你將來可以對此進行建模。如果您採用全年的長期做法，而不是採用任何特定季度的做法，那麼效果會更好。

And on that, the other factor that you have is the factory loadings or underutilization. Right now, as I mentioned, we expect a hit from that in first quarter, but that -- just as it's a hit sometimes, is a benefit when you go the other way. But that depends on revenue expectations. So if revenue materializes in the future, and we expect that to continue, then we ramp up the factories and that helps with the loadings, and that tends to take the 75% to 85% towards the high end of that range. If that doesn't happen, then you're looking at the lower end of that range.

除此之外，另一個因素是工廠負荷或利用不足。現在，正如我所提到的，我們預計第一季會受到衝擊，但是，就像有時受到衝擊一樣，當你走另一條路時，這也是一種好處。但這取決於收入預期。因此，如果未來收入能夠實現，並且我們預計這種情況會持續下去，那麼我們就會擴大工廠規模，這有助於提高裝載量，而這往往會使 75% 到 85% 達到該範圍的高端。如果這種情況沒有發生，那麼您就處於該範圍的下限。

And the last note, and I think you touched it before Rafael, is related to our execution. So of course, revenue, we want to grow it. And definitely, we want to do it faster than the market. That's always our objective.

最後一點，我想你在拉斐爾之前提到過，與我們的執行有關。因此，我們當然希望增加收入。當然，我們希望比市場更快完成這一目標。這始終是我們的目標。

But on the other hand, is that LFAB execution, right? We are executing our transition from our foundry business into Lehi. I expect that to have a step forward in 2025. Especially in our automotive business, we have a bunch of parts what we call -- there’s a safety spec that usually the qual is a little bit more complex. It just takes a little bit longer. But we are moving well on that execution. And again, my expectation from the team is to meet our commitment to our customers and get these parts out of Lehi, as they prefer that dependable capacity. And for us, it's a way lower cost and, of course, helps as a byproduct on the margins as well.

但另一方面，那是 LFAB 執行，對嗎？我們正在將鑄造業務轉型至利哈伊。我預計到 2025 年這一目標將會取得進一步的進展。特別是在我們的汽車業務中，我們有很多所謂的零件——有一個安全規格，通常品質會更複雜一些。只是需要的時間稍微長一點。但我們在執行上進展順利。再次強調，我對團隊的期望是履行對客戶的承諾，將這些零件從利哈伊運出，因為他們更喜歡這種可靠的產能。對我們來說，這是一種降低成本的方法，當然，它還可以作為副產品來幫助提高利潤。

Do you have a follow-on, CJ?

CJ，你還有後續訊息嗎？

Yeah. Yes, just a quick one, Dave. Rafael, just to go back to kind of the loading question. If we do assume normal seasonal pattern for your top line into Q2, Q3, should we assume that loadings would move higher in Q2?

是的。是的，我只想快速回答一下，戴夫。拉斐爾，我們再回到加載問題上。如果我們確實假設您的營業收入在第二季和第三季呈現正常的季節性模式，那麼我們是否應該假設第二季的負荷會更高？

Yeah, we forecast one quarter at a time, so I'm going to stick with that. But I'll also say, maybe as you're alluding to, the more revenue we have, then -- let me put it this way. We're not planning -- $4.5 billion of inventory is a healthy level of inventory. And we would not want to be draining those levels at this point. So maybe that gives you enough to think about.

是的，我們每次預測一個季度，所以我會堅持這樣做。但我還要說，也許正如您所暗示的，我們的收入越多，那麼——讓我這樣說吧。我們沒有計劃——45 億美元的庫存是一個健康的庫存水準。我們現在還不想耗盡這些水準。所以也許這就足以讓你思考了。

We'll go to the next caller please.

請接聽下一位來電。

Joshua Buchalter, TD Cowen.

約書亞·布查爾特（Joshua Buchalter），TD Cowen。

Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. I guess I wanted to follow up on the previous one you mentioned, not necessarily wanting to drain the inventory levels below the $4.5 billion levels. As we think about how you're thinking about 1Q, though, is this the level you're comfortable with and you're going to manage to the $4.5 billion? And I guess to ask more acutely, is there a near-to-medium-term inventory target on a days basis that we should be thinking about? Because I know that's obviously evolved through the last several years. I'd be curious how you're thinking about it now as we sort of are chipping closer to end demand?

嘿，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想我想跟進一下你之前提到的問題，不一定想將庫存水準降至 45 億美元以下。但是，當我們思考您對第一季的看法時，這是您可以接受的水平嗎？您是否能夠達到 45 億美元？我想更尖銳地問一下，我們是否應該考慮以天數計算的近期到中期庫存目標？因為我知道這顯然是過去幾年來不斷發展的。我很好奇，當我們逐漸接近最終需求時，您對此有何看法？

Yeah. First, let me give you a big picture, and I will give you some specifics. But big picture, inventory, the goal here, the objective is to maintain high levels of customer service while we minimize the obsolescence of inventory. We have target levels at the finished goods, at the chip level, for the 80,000 parts that we sell in different end markets. And that is done in a very rigorous and disciplined way on a part-by-part basis. So that's how we look at it. And the risk of obsolescence on this part is very, very low. These parts last for a long time. They sell to many, many customers for many, many years in very long life cycles.

是的。首先，我先跟大家介紹一下整體情況，然後再講一些具體情況。但從整體來看，庫存的目標是保持高水準的客戶服務，同時盡量減少庫存的過時。對於我們在不同終端市場銷售的 80,000 個零件，我們在成品和晶片層面都有目標水準。這項工作是按照非常嚴格和規範的方式逐個部分完成的。這就是我們的看法。而且該部件的過時風險非常非常低。這些部件可以使用很久。它們的產品生命週期很長，可以持續很多年，向很多很多客戶銷售產品。

Now to the specific that you asked, given how we're running the factories right now, I would expect a further increase of inventory levels going into first quarter, but probably in the $100 million, $100 million plus level and then potentially stabilize at that point around that level.

現在回到您問到的具體問題，考慮到我們目前工廠的運作情況，我預計第一季庫存水準將進一步增加，但可能在 1 億美元或 1 億美元以上的水平，然後可能穩定在該水平附近。

Do you have a follow-on, Josh?

喬希，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yeah. Thank you for the color, Rafael. Yes, to follow up, I want to about -- there were some earlier questions about competition, specifically in pricing. I guess I wanted to ask bigger picture, not necessarily pricing related. But as some of your peers have sort of gotten through and lapped and are no longer shipping to NCNRs or LTSAs, have you noticed a change in the competitive backdrop on the number of sockets that are open for competition? I'd be curious to hear about if there's any big change in competitively over the last couple of quarters. Thank you.

是的。謝謝你的顏色，拉斐爾。是的，為了跟進，我想問一下——之前有一些關於競爭的問題，特別是在定價方面。我想問的是更宏觀的問題，不一定跟價格有關。但是，由於您的一些同行已經通過並超越了，不再向 NCNR 或 LTSA 發貨，您是否注意到開放競爭的插座數量的競爭背景發生了變化？我很好奇想知道過去幾季競爭力是否發生了重大變化。謝謝。

I haven't seen a significant change. It feels the same to me, kind of stable. I mean it's -- we are in a downcycle. And I remember throughout my career at TI, every time there is a downcycle, the market gets more competitive, and it's still the same now. And that's again across all markets, all geographies, but I haven't seen any significant change in the last couple of quarters, to your direct question.

我沒有看到明顯的變化。我的感覺是一樣的，有點穩定。我的意思是——我們正處於下行週期。我記得我在 TI 的整個職業生涯中，每當出現下行週期，市場競爭就會變得更加激烈，現在仍然如此。這同樣適用於所有市場、所有地區，但對於您的直接問題，我在過去幾季中沒有看到任何重大變化。

Thank you, Josh, and we'll -- we've got time for one last caller, please.

謝謝你，喬希，我們還有時間接聽最後一位來電。

Thomas O'Malley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的托馬斯·奧馬利。

Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. This is for Haviv or Rafael. Just at the capital management day, you guys highlighted different CapEx ranges depending on kind of different revenue CAGRs. And I know the intention there wasn't to guide revenue. But you just updated us on depreciation in response to just the ITC and some of the grants as well. Is the depreciation being at the lower end entirely a function -- or the updated guide that you're giving today entirely a function of those tax credits and grants? Or is that a function of potentially lower CapEx as well?

嗨，大家好。感謝您允許我提問。這是給 Haviv 或 Rafael 的。就在資本管理日，你們根據不同的收入複合年增長率強調了不同的資本支出範圍。我知道他們的目的不是為了指導收入。但您剛才向我們通報了針對 ITC 和一些補助金的折舊情況。折舊處於較低水平是否完全是一個函數——或者您今天提供的最新指南完全是那些稅收抵免和補助的函數？還是這也是潛在較低資本支出的功能？

It is not a function of lower CapEx. We continue to expect CapEx for 2025 to be $5 billion. And in 2026, as we said at the last call, between $2 billion to $5 billion, depending on further expectations. And we'll have more clarity on that in the second half of the year.

它不是較低資本支出的功能。我們繼續預期 2025 年的資本支出將達到 50 億美元。到 2026 年，正如我們上次所說的那樣，這個數字將在 20 億美元到 50 億美元之間，具體取決於進一步的預期。我們將在今年下半年對此有更清晰的認識。

Yeah. And again, I will add, this is not -- I mean, as we said in August, our plan is still -- we like the plan. We're going to be very disciplined in executing it. We always look at the environment and what's going on. But based on what I see right now, you shouldn't expect a plan to change in terms of our Phase 1, Phase 2.

是的。我再補充一下，這不是——我的意思是，正如我們在八月所說的那樣，我們的計劃仍然是——我們喜歡這個計劃。我們將非常嚴格地執行這項規定。我們總是關注環境和正在發生的事情。但根據我目前看到的情況，你不應該期望我們的第一階段、第二階段的計畫會改變。

As I described, Phase 1 is serving us very well. This is as we move revenue from external foundries into our LFAB factory in Utah. And also on the analog side, we want most of our part planning on 300 rather than, for example, 6-inch fab that we are shutting down. And that's going well.

正如我所描述的，第一階段為我們提供了非常好的幫助。這是因為我們將外部代工廠的收入轉移到猶他州的 LFAB 工廠。在模擬方面，我們希望將大部分零件規劃在 300 晶圓廠，而不是我們正在關閉的 6 吋晶圓廠。一切進展順利。

The Phase 2 is very important for our future. So we are going to complete the qualification line in Sherman 1. We are going to set the shell or build a shell in Sherman 2, and also build a shell in Lehi, so it can give us this flexible capacity phase that we are so excited about, and so are the customers.

第二階段對我們的未來非常重要。因此我們將完成謝爾曼 1 的資格線。我們將在謝爾曼 2 號設置或建造一個外殼，並在利哈伊建造一個外殼，這樣它可以為我們提供這個靈活的容量階段，我們對此感到非常興奮，客戶也是如此。

Once they engage with us, they fully understand that not only they will have enough cleanroom capacity to grow into, but also the qualification is going to be behind them. So their parts are already running, for example, in Sherman or in Lehi. And that gives them a very, very easy path to grow their business with us without having to go through a requal and new fabs or new suppliers.

一旦他們與我們合作，他們就會充分認識到，他們不僅將擁有足夠的無塵室容量來發展，而且還將獲得相應的資格。因此，他們的零件已在謝爾曼或利哈伊等地投入運作。這為他們提供了一條非常非常簡單的途徑來與我們一起發展業務，而無需經過重新認證和新的晶圓廠或新的供應商。

So I think that plan serves our customers well, and we are continuing to execute to it. And as you said, the slide in August, and I will probably see a very similar story in a couple of weeks, is that we want to say that we have a plan, but we do always have flexibility into the plan, especially in 2026 and 2027.

所以我認為該計劃能夠很好地服務我們的客戶，並且我們將繼續執行該計劃。正如您所說，8 月份的幻燈片，以及幾週後我可能還會看到非常相似的情況，就是我們想說我們有一個計劃，但我們始終對計劃具有靈活性，特別是在 2026 年和 2027 年。

Right. Tom, you got a follow-up?

正確的。湯姆，你還有後續消息嗎？

I do. Thanks for all the detail there. Last one of the call, so broader and hate to end it on this, but I just want to give you a chance to respond. So articles out on a China statement talking about dumping product in that market. I think there's an ongoing debate just around the sustainability of China longer term. I guess part of this question is can you just address what you've seen in the public there?

我願意。感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。這是最後一次通話，內容比較廣泛，我不想就此結束，但我只是想給你一個回應的機會。因此，有文章發表中國聲明，談論向該市場傾銷產品。我認為，關於中國長期可持續性的爭論仍在繼續。我想這個問題的一部分是您能否談談您在那裡所看到的情況？

And then kind of the derivative of that, you're obviously growing year over year in China. You're seeing strength in China auto. You highlighted that. But outside of that, are you seeing any change in the dynamic there in terms of your ability to ship product, competition, just addressing the whole debate.

由此衍生出的結果是，你們在中國的業務顯然逐年成長。您看到了中國汽車的強大實力。你強調了這一點。但除此之外，您是否看到在運送產品的能力、競爭以及解決整個爭論方面存在任何動態變化？

Yeah. And again, I'll probably not settle the debate; I'll just tell you what we see. And I'll start with a high level in China. It's an important market. China represents 20% more or less of world GDP, and you want to play in that market. By the way, our business in 2024 in China was at about 20%.

是的。再說一次，我可能不會解決爭論；我只會告訴你我們所看到的。我先從中國的高層談起。這是一個重要的市場。中國佔世界GDP的20%左右，你想在這個市場上佔有一席之地。順便說一下，2024年我們在中國的業務佔比約為20%。

So we are kind of not over or underpenetrated in China, it's kind of just right at 20%.

因此，我們在中國市場的滲透率既不高也不低，剛好在 20% 左右。

And our commitment is to our customers. Our customers in China, they rely on our parts. They want to have the best products. They want to have the highest quality. They want to get best service. And TI is a good supplier. And on top of it, their ambition is to be global players, right? So maybe they are part of the headquarters in China, but they want to sell their end equipment to any geography. And in that sense, TI is a great supplier because we are a global player. We have a diverse footprint of manufacturing and support structure. And that's a great fit for their needs.

我們的承諾是針對我們的客戶。我們在中國的客戶依賴我們的零件。他們想要擁有最好的產品。他們想要擁有最高的品質。他們希望獲得最好的服務。TI 是一家優秀的供應商。最重要的是，他們的雄心壯志是成為全球企業，對嗎？因此，也許他們是中國總部的一部分，但他們希望將他們的終端設備銷售到任何地區。從這個意義上來說，TI 是一家優秀的供應商，因為我們是一家全球性企業。我們擁有多元化的製造和支持結構。這非常適合他們的需求。

Now as you know, and I think this is not news, the China end market has always been competitive, and it's continuing to be. We know that they are very capable, motivated, fast-moving competition.

如你所知，我認為這並不是什麼新聞，中國終端市場一直競爭激烈，而且這種競爭還會持續下去。我們知道他們是非常有能力、有動力、行動迅速的競爭對手。

But I think the competitive advantages of TI allows us to compete, whether it's our broad portfolio, the reach of the channel and also our position in industrial and automotive, customers value that and want to continue to do business with TI. And we want to compete, and that's really the fact that we own our manufacturing, own our technology. I think we have the right cost structure to compete across our entire portfolio, whether it's low AUP general-purpose parts or very integrated sophisticated ASSPs that are tailored for a specific application. We don't need to sub select. We want to compete across our portfolio, and our customers there appreciate that. And I continue to see that. Specifically to your question, at this time, we haven't been notified about an investigation, and it's kind of business as usual between us and our customers in China.

但我認為 TI 的競爭優勢使我們能夠參與競爭，無論是我們廣泛的產品組合、通路的覆蓋範圍還是我們在工業和汽車領域的地位，客戶都重視這一點並希望繼續與 TI 開展業務。我們想要競爭，事實上我們擁有自己的製造業，擁有自己的技術。我認為我們擁有正確的成本結構來在整個產品組合中競爭，無論是低 AUP 通用部件還是針對特定應用定制的高度集成的複雜 ASSP。我們不需要進行子選擇。我們希望在我們的產品組合中競爭，我們的客戶也對此表示讚賞。我不斷看到這種情況。具體來說，對於您的問題，目前我們尚未收到有關調查的通知，我們與中國客戶之間的業務往來一切正常。

Great. Thank you. Thank you for asking that question, Tom. And thank you, everyone else, for joining us tonight. We look forward to sharing our capital management call on Tuesday, February 4, at 10 a.m. Central time. A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website. Good evening.

偉大的。謝謝。謝謝你提出這個問題，湯姆。也感謝大家今晚加入我們。我們期待於 2 月 4 日星期二中部時間上午 10 點分享我們的資本管理電話會議。本次通話的重播將很快在我們的網站上提供。晚安.

Thank you. And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束，大家可以斷開連線了。感謝您的參與。