德州儀器 (TXN) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Dave Pahl, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

歡迎參加德州儀器 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我是投資人關係主管戴夫‧帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起出席活動的還有我們的財務長拉斐爾‧利扎迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路直播，可透過我們的網站存取。此外，今天的電話會議正在錄音，可透過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件中包含的有關前瞻性聲明的通知，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into first quarter revenue results, with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on capital management, as well as share the guidance for the second quarter of 2024.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將簡單回顧一下本季的情況。接下來，我將深入了解第一季的收入結果，並提供一些有關終端市場的詳細資訊。最後，拉斐爾將介紹財務績效、更新資本管理狀況，並分享 2024 年第二季的指引。

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter: Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $3.7 billion, a decrease of 10% sequentially and 16% year over year. Analog revenue declined 14% year over year, and Embedded Processing declined 22%. Our "Other" segment declined 33% from the year-ago quarter.

首先簡單回顧本季：本季營收大致符合預期，為 37 億美元，季減 10%，年減 16%。模擬收入年減 14%，嵌入式處理收入下降 22%。我們的「其他」部門較去年同期下降了 33%。

Now I'll provide some insight into our first quarter revenue by end market. Revenue declined sequentially across all of our end markets. Our results reflect the current environment, as customers continue to reduce their inventory levels. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it's more informative at this time.

現在，我將按終端市場介紹我們第一季的收入。我們所有終端市場的收入均連續下降。我們的結果反映了當前的環境，因為客戶繼續降低庫存水準。與上一季類似，我將專注於連續表現，因為此時它更具參考價值。

First, the industrial market was down upper single digits.

首先，工業市場出現個位數高點下滑。

The automotive market was down mid-single digits.

汽車市場下滑了中個位數。

Personal electronics was down mid teens.

個人電子產品銷售下降幅度達十幾歲。

Next, communications equipment was down about 25%.

其次，通訊設備下跌了約25%。

And lastly, enterprise systems was down mid teens.

最後，企業系統下降了 15%。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的展望。拉斐爾？

Thanks Dave, and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝戴夫，大家下午好。

As Dave mentioned, first quarter revenue was $3.7 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.1 billion, or 57% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue and, to a lesser extent, higher manufacturing costs associated with reduced factory loadings and our planned capacity expansions. Gross profit margin decreased 820 basis points.

正如戴夫所提到的，第一季的收入為 37 億美元。本季毛利為 21 億美元，佔營收的 57%。與去年同期相比，毛利下降主要是由於收入下降，以及工廠負荷減少和計劃的產能擴張導致的製造成本上升。毛利率下降820個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $933 million, flat from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion, or 22% of revenue.

本季營運費用為 9.33 億美元，與去年同期持平，大致符合預期。過去 12 個月，營業費用為 37 億美元，佔營收的 22%。

Operating profit was $1.3 billion in the quarter, or 35% of revenue, and was down 34% from the year-ago quarter.

本季營業利潤為 13 億美元，佔營收的 35%，較去年同期下降 34%。

Net income in the first quarter was $1.1 billion, or $1.20 per share. Earnings per share included a 10-cent benefit that was not in our original guidance, primarily due to the sale of a property.

第一季淨收入為 11 億美元，即每股 1.20 美元。每股收益包括 10 美分的收益，這不在我們最初的預期中，這主要是由於出售了一處房產。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1 billion in the quarter and $6.3 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in the quarter and $5.3 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $940 million.

現在，讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，從現金產生開始。本季經營現金流為 10 億美元，過去 12 個月經營現金流為 63 億美元。本季的資本支出為 12 億美元，過去 12 個月的資本支出為 53 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 9.4 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends, and in the past 12 months, we returned $4.8 billion to our owners.

本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息，在過去 12 個月中，我們向股東返還了 48 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $10.4 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter. In first quarter, we issued $3 billion in debt. Total debt outstanding is now $14.3 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.8%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第一季末，現金和短期投資為 104 億美元。第一季度，我們發行了 30 億美元的債務。目前未償還債務總額為 143 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.8%。

Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.1 billion, up $84 million from the prior quarter, and days were 235, up 16 days sequentially.

季末庫存為 41 億美元，較上一季增加 8,400 萬美元，庫存天數為 235 天，較上一季增加 16 天。

For the second quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.05 to $1.25.

對於第二季度，我們預計 TI 收入將在 36.5 億美元至 39.5 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.05 美元至 1.25 美元之間。

We continue to expect our effective tax rate to be about 13%.

我們繼續預計我們的有效稅率為13％左右。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們持續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續實現每股自由現金流的成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions) After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up. Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以開通問答線路了。 （操作員指示）我們回覆後，將為您提供進一步跟進的機會。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

Rafael, I'm wondering if you can give us an update on any CHIPS Act money that you may have gotten. I know basically all the money for the advanced nodes has been allocated and has been announced, but there's still like $9 billion outstanding for mature nodes. So can you kind of talk about that for us?

拉斐爾，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您可能獲得的 CHIPS 法案資金的最新情況。我知道基本上所有用於高級節點的資金都已分配並公佈，但成熟節點仍有 90 億美元未償還。那麼您能為我們談談這個嗎？

Yes. No, happy to do it. First, let me address the grant, which I think is what you're referring to. On that, frankly, we don't have an update to give. We're still going through that process, submitted our application late last year, are working through the details with the CHIPS Program Office. As we said before, we believe our investments in manufacturing in both Texas and Utah are well-positioned with the objectives of the CHIPS Program Office.

是的。不，很樂意這麼做。首先，讓我來談談贈款問題，我想這就是您所指的。坦白說，對此我們還沒有最新消息。我們仍在進行該流程，並在去年年底提交了申請，正在與 CHIPS 計劃辦公室討論細節問題。正如我們之前所說，我們相信我們在德州和猶他州製造業的投資符合 CHIPS 計畫辦公室的目標。

Now let me give you an update on the ITC, the investment tax credit. To date, we have accrued about $1.5 billion on that credit. And based on the recently released regulations, we will be receiving the ITC cash benefit throughout the year in 2024 and beyond. And starting next quarter, so in second quarter, we expect to receive about $300 million, and a total of $1 billion for all of 2024. Okay. Do you have a follow-up?

現在讓我向您介紹一下投資稅收抵免（ITC）的最新情況。到目前為止，我們已經獲得約 15 億美元的信貸。而且根據最近發布的規定，我們將在2024年及以後全年獲得ITC現金福利。從下個季度開始，也就是第二季度，我們預計將收到約 3 億美元，2024 年全年總計將收到 10 億美元。你有後續行動嗎？

I do, yes. I wanted to ask about factory loadings and sort of where you think inventory goes for June. If I look at your guidance, the gross margins implied pretty flat ex depreciation. So it seems like loadings have sort of leveled off in June. Is that right? And kind of what do you expect for inventory in June? It seems like it should start to come down a tick maybe in June.

是的，我知道。我想詢問有關工廠裝載量以及您認為六月庫存情況的問題。如果我看一下您的指導，毛利率暗示折舊後相當平穩。因此看起來六月的負載已經趨於平穩。是嗎？您對六月的庫存有什麼預期？看起來大概到六月它應該會開始下降。

Yes, sure. Of course, we gave guidance. We gave a range on revenue. We gave a range on EPS. And then 90 days from now, we'll discuss that more or less. But for now, I'll tell you that in first quarter, we adjusted factory loadings as we neared our desired inventory levels. And as we said during the prepared remarks, we grew inventory about $80-some million. And then for second quarter, we're going to adjust those loadings depending on future demand.

是的，當然。當然，我們給了指導。我們給出了收入範圍。我們給出了每股盈餘 (EPS) 的範圍。從現在起 90 天后，我們或多或少都會討論這個問題。但現在，我要告訴你，在第一季度，我們調整了工廠負荷，因為我們已經接近理想的庫存水準。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們的庫存增加了約 8,000 萬美元。對於第二季度，我們將根據未來的需求調整這些負載。

Our next question is from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西‧拉斯岡 (Stacy Rasgon)。

I wanted to follow up on that. If and when revenues begin to recover, how do we think about what that would imply for your factory utilization, given your current inventory position as well as additional capacity coming online, which I guess sort of just naturally gives a downward bias to utilization anyways. Like I guess how long would you need to take utilizations up? Or how much revenue growth would you need to start taking utilizations up, given your positioning on inventories and capacity additions?

我想繼續跟進此事。如果收入開始恢復，考慮到您目前的庫存狀況以及即將上線的額外產能，我們如何看待這對您的工廠利用率意味著什麼？我猜你需要多長時間才能提高利用率？或者，考慮到您對庫存和產能增加的定位，您需要多少收入成長才能開始提高利用率？

Yes. So Stacy, it's a good question, but it's a complex question. And it's -- at the end of the day, it's going to depend. It's going to depend on a number of factors, what kind of revenue profile you -- we're -- faced with and not just in one or two quarters but really over a longer horizon. Maybe the best thing I can tell you is don't expect a significant or even any drain on inventory because just given our business model and how we want to run the company, keeping lead times short and also the upside potential that we have with having this inventory and the capacity in place is so much higher than the downside risk. So hopefully, that gives you some good insight into how we're thinking. Do you have a follow-up?

是的。所以史黛西，這是一個好問題，但也是一個複雜的問題。而到最後，這還是要看情況。這將取決於許多因素，我們所面臨的收入狀況，不只是一兩個季度，而是更長遠的未來。也許我能告訴你的最好的事情是，不要指望庫存會大幅減少甚至任何消耗，因為考慮到我們的商業模式以及我們希望如何經營公司，保持較短的交貨時間以及擁有這些庫存和現有產能所帶來的上行潛力遠遠高於下行風險。所以希望這能讓您深入了解我們的想法。你有後續行動嗎？

I do. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about pricing. So I think last quarter, you'd suggested that pricing was sort of resuming historical trends, which -- I think it suggests it was down -- I think it was low to mid-single digits. Is there any update on what you're seeing in terms of the pricing environment? Is that still the environment that we're in? Are things better? Are things worse? Like where do you see that going as we go forward?

我願意。我想知道您是否可以談談定價問題。所以我認為上個季度，您認為定價正在恢復歷史趨勢，我認為這表明價格有所下降，我認為價格處於低至中等個位數的水平。就定價環境而言，您看到有什麼更新嗎？我們現在所處的環境還是那樣嗎？現在情況有好轉嗎？情況更糟了嗎？您認為我們下一步的走向如何？

Yes. Stacy, I'll comment on that. As I said last quarter, really, we began seeing things change mid last year, in the back half of last year as we began discussions with customers for their demand in the following year and out in time, whenever those pricing windows would open up. And those are really just going back to what we've seen in the last 10, 20 years kind of pre-pandemic. So describe it roughly in the low to very low single-digit declines over time. And I'd say just generally that's what we're continuing to see.

是的。史黛西，我會對此發表評論。正如我上個季度所說的那樣，實際上，我們在去年年中、去年下半年就開始看到情況發生變化，因為我們開始與客戶討論來年的需求，以及定價窗口何時開放。這些其實只是回到了我們在過去 10 到 20 年疫情爆發前所看到的情況。因此，粗略地描述隨著時間的推移，低至非常低的個位數下降。我想說，總體而言，這就是我們持續看到的情況。

Let me add one more thing, Stacy. I want to give you a bonus answer. You always ask about OpEx. So you're not asking, but I'm going to give you OpEx. Remember that second quarter has a full three months of raises, whereas first quarter only had two months of raises. So it's something for your modeling.

讓我再補充一點，史黛西。我想給你一個額外的答案。您總是詢問有關 OpEx 的問題。所以你沒有要求，但我會給你 OpEx。請記住，第二季有整整三個月的加薪，而第一季只有兩個月的加薪。所以這對你的建模來說很重要。

Our next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

I think in the prepared remarks, you said customers continue to reduce inventory levels, but you're also guiding Q2 sales to be up 4% sequentially. So my question is, should we think of Q2 as kind of a normal seasonal quarter? Just any more color on what you're seeing real time. Are we past the industry inventory correction? Are we kind of getting back to some semblance of -- on normalcy from a demand perspective? Any other color you could give from an end market or geo perspective. Just you are the largest, right, most influential vendor in the market. So I think your perspectives would be very useful to understand where we are in the inventory and the broader demand cycle.

我認為在準備好的評論中，您說客戶繼續減少庫存水平，但您也預測第二季銷售額將環比增長 4%。所以我的問題是，我們是否應該將第二季視為正常的季節性？您即時看到的內容僅供參考。我們是否已經度過了產業庫存調整階段？從需求角度來看，我們是否正在恢復到某種正常狀態？從終端市場或地理角度來看，您可以給出的任何其他顏色。你們就是市場上最大、最有影響力的供應商。因此，我認為您的觀點對於我們了解庫存狀況和更廣泛的需求週期非常有用。

Yes. Vivek, let me start with what we saw happen in last quarter because I think it's helpful. First, we saw personal electronics was the first market that went into the correction. It really is -- was the first to come out in the last few quarters. I'd describe it as behaving more seasonal.

是的。 Vivek，讓我先從上個季度發生的情況開始說，因為我認為這很有幫助。首先，我們看到個人電子產品是第一個進入調整的市場。這確實是——是最近幾季以來第一個問世的。我認為它的表現更具季節性。

If you go to the other end of the spectrum, we've had industrial, which has been declining sequentially from some time. And over the last few quarters, we've been talking about how there's some asynchronous behavior inside of the 12, 13 sectors that we have there. That continued inside of the quarter. So we've got some of the later-cycle sectors that are continuing to decline and declining at double-digit rates. But there are some that are beginning to begin to slow in the declines and even a couple that grew sequentially.

如果你看一下另一端，我們會發現工業一直持續下降。在過去幾個季度中，我們一直在討論我們擁有的 12、13 個部門內部存在的一些異步行為。這種情況在本季內持續存在。因此，我們發現一些後期週期產業正在繼續下滑，並且以兩位數的速度下滑。但有些國家的下滑動能已開始減緩，甚至有幾個國家的下滑動能仍持續成長。

So that I would just describe as being more mixed this quarter, which is certainly different than last quarter. So -- and look, historically, second quarter is a seasonally strong quarter for us. So it's not unusual for us to see sequential growth sequentially. Do you have a follow-on?

因此，我認為本季的情況比較複雜，肯定與上一季不同。所以 — 從歷史上看，第二季度對我們來說是季節性強勁的季度。因此，我們看到連續的成長並不罕見。您有後續訊息嗎？

Maybe if I press a little bit on that. For Q2, specifically industrial and automotive, do you think -- is your assumption that customers will continue to work down inventory? Or do you think that they have worked down most of the inventory and we are getting back to some semblance of what normal demand looks like for TI in Q2? Like what does your guidance actually imply, that are we below seasonal? Are we seasonal? Or are we something different?

也許如果我稍微按一下就好了。對於第二季度，特別是工業和汽車行業，您是否認為—您的假設是客戶將繼續減少庫存？或者您認為他們已經減少了大部分庫存，而我們正恢復到第二季 TI 正常需求的水平？例如，您的指導實際上意味著什麼，我們是否低於季節性？我們是季節性的嗎？或者說我們是不同的物種？

Well, again, we're not in the practice of giving guidance by end market. And -- but even inside of last quarter, as we looked at it inside of industrial, there obviously were some customers that are nearing the end of that inventory depletion cycle. So as you know, we don't -- we try to be very cautious and not to try to predict tops or bottoms or those types of things and just report what we see and just stick to the facts.

嗯，再說一次，我們通常不會根據終端市場提供指導。但即使在上個季度，當我們從工業內部來看時，顯然有一些客戶已經接近庫存消耗週期的尾聲。所以如你所知，我們不會——我們會盡量保持謹慎，不會試圖預測頂部或底部或諸如此類的事情，而只是報告我們看到的並堅持事實。

Our next question is from Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的托馬斯·奧馬利。

Mine is in regards to China. 2023 data came out recently, and it looks like some of the larger North American players didn't really lose share despite some concerns on the trailing edge that you would have some increased China competition. Can you talk -- has there been any change in the way that customer behavior has kind of trended over the last couple of months? And can you talk about just that competitive environment? Are you seeing more players there? Are you seeing players that you didn't see before? Any color on China would be super useful.

我的問題與中國有關。 2023 年的數據最近出爐，儘管有人擔心後期會面臨中國市場競爭加劇，但看起來一些較大的北美參與者的市場份額並沒有真正下降。您能談談－過去幾個月顧客行為趨勢有什麼改變嗎？能談談競爭環境嗎？你在那裡看到更多球員了嗎？您是否看到了之前沒見過的球員？中國上的任何顏色都非常有用。

Sure, yes. Thanks, Tom, for that question. And I would say no change over the last couple of months. But I think, certainly, over the last few years, there's many things that are changing in China. We've got very competent local competitors there as well as there's subsidized capacity going in place. And when you compare that to five or 10 years ago, is it harder to compete there? It certainly is. But again, I would not describe that as a competitive landscape that's changing overnight. And we've talked about that for some years.

當然，是的。謝謝湯姆提出這個問題。我想說過去幾個月沒有改變。但我認為，在過去幾年裡，中國確實發生了許多變化。我們在當地有非常強大的競爭對手，而且也有補貼產能。與五年前或十年前相比，競爭是否更加艱難？確實如此。但是我再次強調，我不會將其描述為一夜之間就會發生變化的競爭格局。我們已經談論這個問題好幾年了。

So China is an important market for us. That -- it continues to be a growing market. And we can and will compete there to support our customers. So our competitive advantages, whether that's our manufacturing and technology, the breadth of the portfolio, the reach of the markets, all serve us very, very well in China. Do you have a follow-on?

因此，中國對我們來說是一個重要的市場。這是一個持續成長的市場。我們可以而且將會在那裡競爭以支持我們的客戶。因此，我們的競爭優勢，無論是製造和技術、產品組合的廣度或市場的覆蓋範圍，都為我們在中國提供了極大的便利。您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes. Just on auto particularly. I know that you're not guiding the out-quarter, but just conversations that you've had since you last updated us with those customers. I think you just mentioned that inventories are coming down. But through the pandemic, there was a kind of change of stated ordering patterns of just-in-time to just-in-case. Do you see that kind of persisting? Or do you think that we're moving back to a situation in which customers really want to have much lower inventory on their balance sheet? Obviously, you have a unique supply chain, but just any thoughts on just the auto environment, particularly through the last several months.

是的。只是特別在汽車上。我知道您並沒有對季度末的業績做出指引，而只是介紹了自您上次與這些客戶更新情況以來的對話。我想您剛才提到庫存正在下降。但在疫情期間，既定的訂購模式發生了某種變化，從及時訂購變成了以防萬一訂購。您看到這種堅持了嗎？或者您認為我們正在回到這樣一種情況：客戶確實希望其資產負債表上的庫存大大降低？顯然，你們擁有獨特的供應鏈，但對於汽車環境，特別是過去幾個月的情況，您有什麼看法嗎？

Sure, yes. Thanks again, Tom. I would say that many customers, and especially those in automotive, as they went through and dealt with disruptions that they had in supply chains actually were very thoughtful in looking at where their supply is coming from, what things that they can do differently, well beyond just carrying extra days of inventory. And when they went through that analysis, I think many found that they have a pretty significant dependence on wafers coming out of both China and Taiwan.

當然，是的。再次感謝你，湯姆。我想說的是，許多客戶，特別是汽車行業的客戶，在經歷和處理供應鏈中斷時，實際上都非常認真地考慮他們的供應來自哪裡，他們可以做哪些不同的事情，而不僅僅是多儲備幾天的庫存。當他們進行分析時，我認為許多人發現他們相當依賴來自中國和台灣的晶圓。

And what they described that to us is geopolitically dependable capacity is what they're seeking. And again, we've talked about that before in our capital management updates. We believe that that's going to be highly sought after. It is -- we are seeing that today. And so I think we're in a position to be able to support customers and that growth that will come from that.

他們向我們描述了他們所尋求的地緣政治可靠的能力。我們之前在資本管理更新中已經討論過這個問題。我們相信，這將受到熱捧。是的——我們今天就看到了這一點。因此我認為我們有能力支持客戶並實現由此帶來的成長。

Our next question is from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

I'm going to ask a couple of questions. I guess for the first one, Dave, I know you don't want to guide by the segments, but you gave the quarter over quarters. Could you give us what the year over years were by end market in the first quarter, please?

我要問幾個問題。我想對於第一個問題，戴夫，我知道您不想按照細分來指導，但是您給出了季度數據。您能否告訴我們第一季終端市場年比情況如何？

I can do that, yes. So the industrial market was down about 25% from a year ago. Automotive was down lower-single digits. Personal electronics was actually up single digits. Comms equipment was down about 50%, and enterprise system was down mid teens. Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

是的，我可以做到。因此，工業市場比一年前下降了約 25%。汽車銷量下降了個位數。個人電子產品銷售實際上上漲了個位數。通訊設備下降了約 50%，企業系統下降了 10% 左右。羅斯，你還有其他問題嗎？

I do. Rafael, you talked a little bit about the trajectory of the grant side of the CHIPS Act -- or excuse me, the ITC side and where you're getting the money in over time. Does any of that inflows of cash have a differing impact on the income statement? Or is it just the same, it's just a matter of timing and when you're getting that $1 billion as opposed to, I think, you said $500 million before?

我願意。拉斐爾，您談到了《CHIPS 法案》撥款方面的發展軌跡——或者對不起，是 ITC 方面的發展軌跡，以及您隨著時間的推移從哪裡獲得資金。這些現金流入會對損益表產生不同的影響嗎？或者只是時間問題而已，什麼時候可以拿到 10 億美元，而不是像你之前說的 5 億美元？

Right. No, no direct impact on the income statement. That's already played in as the lower depreciation and are already flowing through the P&L and in our expectations on depreciation. Of course, having more cash does have an impact in terms of you have more cash, you're going to have more interest income. But put that aside, that's kind of below the profit line or the operating profit line.

正確的。不，對損益表沒有直接影響。這已經體現在較低的折舊率中，並且已經流經損益表和我們對折舊的預期。當然，擁有更多現金確實會產生影響，因為現金越多，你就會獲得更多的利息收入。但拋開這一點不談，這有點低於利潤線或營業利潤線。

So speaking of depreciation, let me give you an update on that. We've been talking about depreciation for this year, $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion. That is -- we continue to expect that, but we're more likely to come in at the bottom half of that range. And for 2025, we continue to expect $2 billion to $2.5 billion in depreciation.

說到折舊，讓我向您提供最新情況。我們一直在討論今年的折舊，15 億美元到 18 億美元。也就是說 — — 我們繼續預期這一點，但我們更有可能處於該範圍的下半部。到 2025 年，我們預計折舊費仍將達到 20 億至 25 億美元。

Our next question is from Chris Danely with Citibank.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

Rafael, just another question on the balance sheet and cash. So you guys have seen the share count kind of flatten out here for the last four or five quarters, and then you're building cash and increasing your debt. I guess what's changed? Traditionally, you've sort of taken the share count down slowly but steadily. Any sort of changes in the long-term thinking there on cash, usage of cash, et cetera?

拉斐爾，關於資產負債表和現金還有另一個問題。因此，你們已經看到過去四、五個季度以來股票數量趨於平穩，然後你們開始累積現金並增加債務。我猜發生了什麼變化？傳統上，你會慢慢但穩定地減少股票數量。對於現金、現金使用等的長期思考有什麼改變嗎？

Yes. When it comes to capital management, it all depends, and it depends on circumstances. And at the moment, our objective when it comes to -- you can -- you've known us for a while. We return all cash flow -- all free cash flow to the owners of the company, and we do that over time. But there are times to increase liquidity and to build up cash. So you have seen us over the last couple of years do that and steadily increase cash on the balance sheet. We finished at $10.4 billion last quarter.

是的。說到資本管理，一切都取決於具體情況。目前，我們的目標是──你們已經認識我們有一段時間了。我們將所有現金流——所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者，我們將分階段完成這項工作。但有時需要增加流動性和累積現金。所以，您已經看到我們在過去幾年中做到了這一點，並穩步增加資產負債表上的現金。上個季度我們的銷售額達到了 104 億美元。

And we've done that very consciously, right, to protect the investments that we're making, particularly the $5 billion per year CapEx investments in manufacturing because that is the most important allocation of capital, has been for the last few years and will continue to be for the next three years. So with that in mind, we've had that in mind as we have made overall capital allocation decisions, including the decisions on repurchases.

我們非常有意識地這樣做，是為了保護我們的投資，特別是每年 50 億美元的製造業資本支出，因為這是最重要的資本配置，過去幾年一直如此，未來三年仍將如此。因此，考慮到這一點，我們在製定整體資本配置決策（包括回購決策）時也考慮到了這一點。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

克里斯，您還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, Dave. Just another question on China but more on the, I guess, insourcing side. So some of your competitors have talked about this impacting them. Do you guys see an impact of this on TI? Would or will this alter your long-term, I guess, growth expectations or thoughts on your China business? Just any color there would be very helpful.

是的，戴夫。這只是關於中國的另一個問題，但我想更多的是關於內部採購方面。您的一些競爭對手已經談到了這對他們的影響。你們認為這對 TI 有影響嗎？我想，這會改變您對中國業務的長期成長預期或想法嗎？任何顏色都會非常有用。

Yes. So I'll start and, Dave, if you want to chime in. But as Dave alluded to earlier on the call, China is a very important market. We need to compete there. We do compete there, and we compete to win there. China, there -- it's pretty clear that there's an incentive to design local semiconductor suppliers. I think that's what you're referring to as insourcing. And today, that share, my guess, my sense is 10% to 15% of the local content is sourced by local semiconductor suppliers. I think the exact number is 12%, the one I saw. So that means there's another 88% that is shared now between U.S. and European suppliers. And our goal is to continue that fight and maintain and gain that share, competing with local suppliers but also competing with U.S. and European semiconductor suppliers.

是的。那麼我先開始吧，戴夫，如果你想插話的話。 但正如戴夫在早些時候的電話會議上提到的，中國是一個非常重要的市場。我們需要在那裡競爭。我們確實在那裡競爭，並且我們在那裡競爭以求勝利。中國有—很明顯，中國有設計本地半導體供應商的動力。我認為這就是你所說的內部採購。今天，我猜測，這個份額的 10% 到 15% 是由本地半導體供應商提供的。我認為確切的數字是 12%，就是我看到的數字。這意味著現在另外 88% 由美國和歐洲供應商共享。我們的目標是繼續鬥爭、維持和獲得份額，與本地供應商競爭，同時也與美國和歐洲的半導體供應商競爭。

Yes. And maybe I'll just add. In China -- in any market, we've just got to have the best parts. And when we have that, that means we've got to be ahead of competitors, whether that's on performance, on support, availability and cost. So -- and we have customers in every region that are beginning to think about where they're sourcing products from. So customers that aren't in China are looking at our, as they describe it, geopolitically dependable capacity. And that's about 80% of our revenue.

是的。或許我只是想補充一下。在中國—在任何市場，我們都必須擁有最好的零件。當我們擁有這些時，就意味著我們必須領先於競爭對手，無論是在效能、支援、可用性或成本方面。所以——我們在每個地區的客戶都開始考慮從哪裡採購產品。因此，那些不在中國的客戶正在關注我們所描述的地緣政治可靠的產能。這約占我們收入的80%。

The 20% that's in China, we have customers in China that have and support global markets. And they're coming and describing our geopolitical dependable capacity and wanting to have access to it because it is very unique. We're the only ones that are building at scale outside of China and Taiwan capacity. So customers understand that. They understand it both in China as well as outside.

20% 在中國，我們在中國擁有客戶，並支持全球市場。他們來這裡是為了描述我們的地緣政治可靠能力，並希望獲得它，因為它非常獨特。我們是唯一一家在中國和台灣以外進行大規模建設的公司。所以顧客能夠理解這一點。無論是在中國還是在國外，他們都了解這一點。

Our next question is from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I've asked this question before, but it keeps coming up. Can you talk about how you think about pricing kind of more strategically as you contemplate having a decent amount of capacity, more 300-millimeter capacity, more subsidization? Does that change the pricing paradigm at all? Are there markets where you might be more price-aggressive than you wouldn't be, if any of that were different?

我以前問過這個問題，但它總是出現。您能否談談，當您考慮擁有相當大的產能、更多的 300 毫米產能和更多的補貼時，您如何更具策略性地考慮定價？這會改變定價模式嗎？如果上述任何一項發生變化，在哪些市場上您可能會採取比以前更激進的價格策略？

Yes. So the answer will be amazingly consistent with how you've asked it before. But we haven't changed our strategy on pricing. You know that pricing doesn't move quickly in our industry, and it isn't the primary reason why customers choose our products overall. So we regularly monitor pricing for all of our products. That includes all end markets and all product categories and all regions. And we price to be competitive. And we can do that because we've got a great product portfolio, and we've got great access to the markets through our channels. And we've got competitive products because we build it on 300-millimeter. So hopefully, that's amazingly consistent. Do you have a follow-on?

是的。因此答案將與您之前提出的問題驚人地一致。但我們並沒有改變定價策略。您知道，在我們這個行業，定價變動並不快，而且這也不是客戶選擇我們產品的主要原因。因此，我們會定期監控所有產品的價格。其中包括所有終端市場、所有產品類別和所有地區。而且我們的定價具有競爭力。我們之所以能做到這一點，是因為我們擁有出色的產品組合，並且能夠透過我們的管道輕鬆進入市場。由於我們採用 300 毫米技術製造產品，因此我們的產品具有競爭力。所以希望，這是驚人的一致。您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes. Yes, in terms of the Embedded business, I know you've had a number of kind of vertical markets that you deemphasized and things like that with kind of a focus on more of a core kind of catalog strategy in that business. Where are you in that? Do you expect that you would -- that your Embedded business would sort of track the broader microcontroller business? Or just how do you think about the transitions that are happening there?

是的。是的，就嵌入式業務而言，我知道你們已經淡化了多種垂直市場以及諸如此類的事情，而更加關注該業務的核心目錄策略。你在那裡？您是否預計您的嵌入式業務將追蹤更廣泛的微控制器業務？或者您如何看待那裡正在發生的轉變？

Yes. I think that we continue to make progress overall in our Embedded business. The goal there is to have that business growing and contributing to our free cash flow over a long time. We think it's a great business and continue to invest. So we're very happy with that strategic progress.

是的。我認為我們的嵌入式業務整體上繼續取得進展。我們的目標是讓該業務長期成長並為我們的自由現金流做出貢獻。我們認為這是一項偉大的事業並將繼續投資。因此，我們對這項戰略進展感到非常高興。

So I think in the near term, of course, we're not going to be immune to cycle-related corrections. It's a little bit later because of the constraints that we have due to Embedded relying on foundry supply. And as you know, we're investing to put capacity in place. And we'll have control of that in the future and really are in a good position to gain share there.

因此我認為，在短期內，我們當然無法免受與週期相關的調整的影響。由於嵌入式系統依賴代工廠供應而受到限制，所以時間稍晚。如你所知，我們正在投資以提高產能。我們將來會控制這一點，並且確實處於有利地位來獲得市場份額。

Our next question is from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

Dave, I had a question about the Q4 -- I mean the Q2 outlook. So I know, obviously, you can't guide by market and things like that. But from a bookings perspective, are we starting to see sort of a broad-based recovery in bookings? Or would you still say it's quite selective in all the different applications that you're targeting?

戴夫，我有一個關於第四季——也就是第二季前景——的疑問。因此我知道，顯然你不能受市場和諸如此類的事物的引導。但從預訂量的角度來看，我們是否開始看到預訂量的全面復甦？或者您仍會說它在您針對的所有不同應用中都具有相當的選擇性？

Yes. So let me speak to bookings at the top level. We saw bookings increase each month of the quarter. That is very typical that we would see in a first quarter. I don't have bookings by end market. If there's something very unusual going on, of course, that would jump out at us. So that's just not something I have here in front of me. But I would describe it as behaving as we would expect it to. And of course, those bookings and other demand signals that we get from our customers are obviously imbued into our guidance. Do you have a follow-on, Tore?

是的。所以讓我來談談最高級別的預訂問題。我們發現本季每個月的預訂量都在增加。這是我們在第一季看到的非常典型的現象。我沒有終端市場的預訂。當然，如果發生了一些非常不尋常的事情，我們會注意到。所以這不是我面前所存在的東西。但我認為它的行為正如我們預期的那樣。當然，我們從客戶那裡獲得的預訂和其他需求訊號顯然被融入了我們的指導中。您還有後續問題嗎，托爾？

Yes. That's very helpful. As my follow-up, you mentioned there's a few segments within the industrial category that are starting to grow or perhaps have found the bottom from an inventory correction perspective. Can you talk about which segments those are?

是的。這非常有幫助。作為我的後續提問，您提到從庫存調整的角度來看，工業類別中有幾個部分開始成長，或者可能已經找到底部。您能談談這些是哪些部分嗎？

Yes. Again, as we talked about over the last several quarters now that there was markets that were behaving -- or sectors that were behaving asynchronously, so there are shorter-cycle investment sectors that began to roll earlier, longer-term investment cycles that were rolling later, really just the last couple of quarters into it. So it's really -- if you had to kind of divide them out, that's what they would look like.

是的。再次，正如我們在過去幾個季度中討論的那樣，現在有些市場表現得比較好，有些行業表現得比較異步，因此短週期投資行業開始提前滾動，而長期投資週期則開始推遲，實際上只是在最近幾個季度。所以事實上——如果你必須把它們分開，它們看起來就會是這個樣子。

Our last question is from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

First question is related to the buybacks, and I think you addressed this in a prior question. But I guess the question is, what would be the trigger for being able to resume some degree of buybacks? We realize that the intention is to return 100% of excess free cash flow. But at what point does the cash in the balance sheet and kind of industry conditions allow you to kind of come back to what you've been doing previously?

第一個問題與回購有關，我認為您在先前的問題中已經回答過這個問題了。但我想問題在於，什麼才是能夠恢復一定程度回購的觸發因素呢？我們意識到其目的是返還 100％ 的超額自由現金流。但是，資產負債表中的現金和行業狀況在什麼時候可以允許您恢復到之前所做的事情？

Yes. Well, a couple of things. For example, the data point that I'll give you is our free cash flow for the trailing 12 months was $940 million. And we returned in -- also in trailing 12 months $4.8 billion. So one catalyst for a change there would be once we're past this investment phase that is consuming a good chunk of that free cash flow. Another catalyst is obviously revenue and how that behaves over a number of years. But -- so these are just some of the puts and takes that we think about when we're allocating capital.

是的。嗯，有幾件事。例如，我給您的數據點是過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 9.4 億美元。過去 12 個月，我們的利潤也達到了 48 億美元。因此，一旦我們度過了消耗大量自由現金流的投資階段，就會出現一個改變的催化劑。另一個催化劑顯然是收入以及在未來幾年的表現。但是──這些只是我們在分配資本時考慮的一些優點和缺點。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

克里斯，您還有後續問題嗎？

I do. And I guess the question is about where TI is allocating the R&D investment going forward and how that may be changing. Over last year, it looks like auto, industrial is about 70% of your revenue, and I know that's by design. But you've got some segments such as comm equipment that have been down a lot more. As we look out over the next two years or so, do you think that percentage of revenue on the segments kind of stays about where it is right now? Or based on the R&D investments you're making, do you think that changes substantially?

我願意。我想問題在於 TI 未來將如何分配研發投資以及這種情況將如何改變。去年，汽車和工業業務似乎佔了你們收入的 70% 左右，我知道這是設計使然。但有些領域，例如通訊設備，下滑幅度更大。展望未來兩年左右，您是否認為各部分的收入百分比將維持在目前的水平？或者根據您正在進行的研發投資，您認為這會發生重大變化嗎？

Yes. And it's a great question, Chris. So let me just use as a backdrop for those that hadn't looked at our capital management slide deck. And Slide 21 shows our percentage of our revenue by end market. And the middle column there talks about what we're doing directionally from an R&D spend. So -- and we've talked about for some time that -- our belief that there's going to be secular trends and increasing semiconductors in industrial and automotive. And as a result of that, we have been taking investments up there.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。因此，對於那些還沒有看過我們的資本管理幻燈片的人，我將其作為背景。投影片 21 顯示了我們按終端市場劃分的收入百分比。中間一欄討論了我們在研發支出方面的方向。所以 — — 我們已經討論了一段時間了 — — 我們相信工業和汽車領域將會出現長期趨勢並且半導體將不斷增加。因此，我們一直在那裡進行投資。

And the other markets, though, if you look at personal electronics and communications equipment, our investments there have been and continue to be very steady because we can find great opportunities inside of those markets. And so we'll continue those investments.

至於其他市場，如果你看看個人電子和通訊設備，我們在那裡的投資一直並且將繼續保持穩定，因為我們可以在這些市場中找到巨大的機會。因此我們將繼續這些投資。

And then enterprise systems, we've taken up the investments there slightly. And there's just opportunities, and enterprise systems likely will be a good grower as well. It doesn't have quite the same dynamics as industrial and automotive for us. But certainly, things that sit inside of enterprise, we believe, will make that an above-average grower over the next decade plus.

然後是企業系統，我們在那裡稍微增加了投資。而且這裡也存在著機會，企業系統也可能會有一個良好的發展。對我們來說，它與工業和汽車產業的動態並不完全相同。但我們相信，企業內部的因素肯定會使該公司在未來十多年內實現高於平均的成長。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Rafael to wrap up.

因此，我將把發言權交給拉斐爾來總結。

Okay. Thanks, Dave. Let me wrap up by emphasizing what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for our owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our three ambitions. We will act like owners who will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we're personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbor. When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you and have a good evening.

好的。謝謝，戴夫。最後，我想強調一下我們之前說過的內容。從本質上講，我們是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終，我們的目標以及衡量進步和為股東創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。在努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三大抱負。我們將像擁有公司幾十年的主人一樣行事。我們將適應不斷變化的世界並取得成功。我們將成為一家讓我們感到自豪並願意成為我們鄰居的公司。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和業主都會受益。謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。