德州儀器 (TXN) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起的還有我們的財務長拉斐爾·利扎爾迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。對於錯過該發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。此次電話會議正在網路上進行現場直播，您可以透過我們的網站進行存取。此外，今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將在我們的網站上重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into first quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on capital management as well as share the guidance for the second quarter of 2024.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將首先快速概述本季。接下來，我將深入了解第一季的營收結果，以及我們在終端市場上看到的一些細節。最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績、提供資本管理的最新情況並分享 2024 年第二季的指導。

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter. Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $3.7 billion, a decrease of 10% sequentially and 16% year-over-year. Analog revenue declined 14% year-over-year, and Embedded Processing declined 22%. Our Other segment declined 33% from the year ago quarter.

首先快速概述本季。該季度營收約為 37 億美元，符合預期，季減 10%，年減 16%。模擬收入年減 14%，嵌入式處理收入下降 22%。我們的其他部門較去年同期下降 33%。

Now I'll provide some insight into our first quarter revenue by end market. Revenue declined sequentially across all of our end markets. Our results reflect the current environment as customers continue to reduce their inventory levels.

現在，我將按終端市場提供一些有關我們第一季收入的見解。我們所有終端市場的收入均連續下降。我們的結果反映了客戶不斷降低庫存水準的當前環境。

Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it's more informative at this time. First, the industrial market was down upper single digits. The automotive market was down mid-single digits. Personal electronics was down mid-teens. Next, communications equipment was down about 25%. And lastly, enterprise systems was down mid-teens.

與上季類似，我將專注於連續效能，因為此時它的資訊更豐富。首先，工業市場下跌個位數以上。汽車市場下跌了個位數左右。個人電子產品銷售量下降了十幾歲。接下來，通訊設備下跌約25%。最後，企業系統出現了十幾歲的下降。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. As Dave mentioned, first quarter revenue was $3.7 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.1 billion or 57% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue and, to a lesser extent, higher manufacturing costs associated with reduced factory loadings and our planned capacity expansions. Gross profit margin decreased 820 basis points.

謝謝戴夫，大家下午好。正如 Dave 所提到的，第一季營收為 37 億美元。該季度毛利為 21 億美元，佔營收的 57%。與一年前相比，毛利下降主要是由於收入下降，以及在較小程度上由於工廠負荷減少和我們計劃的產能擴張而導致的製造成本上升。毛利率下降820個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $933 million, flat from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion or 22% of revenue. Operating profit was $1.3 billion in the quarter or 35% of revenue and was down 34% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the first quarter was $1.1 billion or $1.20 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.10 benefit that was not in our original guidance, primarily due to the sale of a property.

該季度營運支出為 9.33 億美元，與去年同期持平，基本符合預期。過去 12 個月的營運支出為 37 億美元，佔收入的 22%。本季營業利潤為 13 億美元，佔營收的 35%，比去年同期下降 34%。第一季淨利為 11 億美元，即每股 1.20 美元。每股收益包括 0.10 美元的收益，這不在我們最初的指導中，主要是由於出售房產。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1 billion in the quarter and $6.3 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.2 billion in the quarter and $5.3 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $940 million.

現在讓我從我們的現金產生開始評論我們的資本管理結果。本季營運現金流為 10 億美元，過去 12 個月營運現金流為 63 億美元。本季資本支出為 12 億美元，過去 12 個月資本支出為 53 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 9.4 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends. And in the past 12 months, we returned $4.8 billion to our owners. Our balance sheet remains strong with $10.4 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter. In first quarter, we issued $3 billion in debt. Total debt outstanding is now $14.3 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.8%.

本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息。在過去 12 個月裡，我們向所有者返還了 48 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第一季末現金和短期投資為 104 億美元。第一季度，我們發行了 30 億美元的債務。目前未償債務總額為 143 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.8%。

Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.1 billion, up $84 million from the prior quarter, and days were 235, up 16 days sequentially. For the second quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.65 billion to $3.95 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.05 to $1.25. We continue to expect our effective tax rate to be about 13%.

季末庫存為 41 億美元，比上季增加 8,400 萬美元，天數為 235 天，比上一季增加 16 天。我們預計 TI 第二季營收將在 36.5 億美元至 39.5 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.05 美元至 1.25 美元之間。我們仍然預計有效稅率約為 13%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續實現每股自由現金流的長期成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說到這裡，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions) After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up. Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開提問線路。 （操作員說明）在我們回覆後，我們將為您提供額外跟進的機會。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Rafael, I'm wondering if you can give us an update on any CHIPS Act money that you may have gotten. I know basically all the money for the advanced nodes has been allocated and has been announced, but there's still like $9 billion outstanding for mature nodes. So can you kind of talk about that for us?

Rafael，我想知道您是否可以向我們提供您可能收到的任何 CHIPS 法案資金的最新資訊。我知道基本上高級節點的所有資金都已分配並宣布，但成熟節點仍有大約 90 億美元的未償資金。那麼你能為我們談談這個嗎？

Yes. No, happy to do it. First, let me address the grant, which I think is what you're referring to. On that, frankly, we don't have an update to give. We're still going through that process, submitted our application late last year, are working through the details with the CHIPS Program Office. As we said before, we believe our investments in manufacturing in both Texas and Utah are well positioned with the objectives of the CHIPS Program Office.

是的。不，很高興這樣做。首先，讓我談談補助金，我想這就是你所指的。坦白說，我們沒有最新消息可提供。我們仍在經歷這個過程，去年年底提交了申請，正在與 CHIPS 計畫辦公室討論細節。正如我們之前所說，我們相信我們在德克薩斯州和猶他州的製造業投資完全符合 CHIPS 計畫辦公室的目標。

Now let me give you an update on the ITC, the investment tax credit. To date, we have accrued about $1.5 billion on that credit. And based on the recently released regulations, we will be receiving the ITC cash benefit throughout the year, in 2024 and beyond. And starting next quarter, so in second quarter, we expect to receive about $300 million and a total of $1 billion for all of 2024. Okay. Do you have a follow-up?

現在讓我向您介紹 ITC（投資稅收抵免）的最新情況。迄今為止，我們已累計獲得約 15 億美元的信貸。根據最近發布的法規，我們將在 2024 年及以後全年獲得 ITC 現金福利。從下個季度開始，即第二季度，我們預計將收到約 3 億美元，2024 年全年總計 10 億美元。你有後續行動嗎？

I do, yes. I wanted to ask about factory loadings and sort of where you think inventory goes for June. If I look at your guidance, the gross margins implied pretty flat ex depreciation. So it seems like loadings have sort of leveled off in June. Is that right? And kind of what do you expect for inventory in June? It seems like it should start to come down a tick maybe in June.

我願意，是的。我想詢問工廠裝貨量以及您認為 6 月份庫存的情況。如果我看一下你們的指導，毛利率意味著除折舊後相當平穩。因此，六月的裝載量似乎已經趨於平穩。是對的嗎？您對 6 月的庫存有何預期？看來它應該在六月開始下降。

Yes, sure. Of course, we gave a guidance. We gave a range on revenue. We gave a range on EPS. And then 90 days from now, we'll discuss that more or less. But for now, I'll tell you that in first quarter, we adjusted factory loadings as we neared our desired inventory levels. And as we said during the prepared remarks, we grew inventory about $80-some million. And then for second quarter, we're going to adjust those loadings depending on future demand.

是的，當然。當然，我們也給予了指導。我們給出了收入範圍。我們給出了每股收益的範圍。從現在起 90 天后，我們將或多或少地討論這個問題。但現在，我會告訴你，在第一季度，當我們接近我們期望的庫存水準時，我們調整了工廠負荷。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們增加了大約 80 多萬美元的庫存。然後在第二季度，我們將根據未來的需求調整這些負載。

Our next question is from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西‧拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon)。

I wanted to follow up on that. If and when revenues begin to recover, how do we think about what that would imply for your factory utilization given your current inventory position as well as additional capacity coming online, which I guess sort of just naturally gives a downward bias to utilization anyways? Like I guess how long would you need to take utilizations up? Or how much revenue growth would you need to start taking utilizations up given your positioning on inventories and capacity additions?

我想跟進此事。如果收入開始恢復，考慮到您目前的庫存狀況以及上線的額外產能，我們如何考慮這對您的工廠利用率意味著什麼，我想這自然會導致利用率下降？就像我猜你需要多長時間才能提高利用率？或者考慮到您在庫存和產能增加方面的定位，您需要多少收入成長才能開始提高利用率？

Yes. So Stacy, it's a good question, but it's a complex question. And it's -- at the end of the day, it's going to depend. It's going to depend on a number of factors, what kind of revenue profile you -- we're faced with and not just in 1 or 2 quarters but really over a longer horizon. Maybe the best thing I can tell you is don't expect a significant or even any drain on inventory because just given our business model and how we want to run the company, keeping lead times short and also the upside potential that we have with having this inventory and the capacity in place is so much higher than the downside risk. So hopefully, that gives you some good insight into how we're thinking. Do you have a follow-up?

是的。史黛西，這是一個好問題，但也是一個複雜的問題。歸根結底，這將取決於情況。這將取決於許多因素，我們面臨什麼樣的收入狀況，而且不僅僅是一兩個季度的收入狀況，而是更長遠的收入狀況。也許我能告訴你的最好的事情是，不要期望庫存會出現顯著甚至任何消耗，因為考慮到我們的商業模式以及我們希望如何運營公司，保持較短的交貨時間以及我們擁有的上行潛力這個庫存和現有產能遠高於下行風險。希望這能讓您更了解我們的想法。你有後續行動嗎？

I do. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about pricing. So I think last quarter, you'd suggested that pricing was sort of resuming historical trends, which -- I think it suggests it was down -- I think it was low to mid-single digits. Is there any update on what you're seeing in terms of the pricing environment? Is that still the environment that we're in? Are things better? Are things worse? Like where do you see that going as we go forward?

我願意。我想知道您能否談談定價問題。因此，我認為上個季度，您建議定價在某種程度上恢復了歷史趨勢，我認為這表明定價有所下降，我認為定價處於低至中個位數的水平。您所看到的定價環境有什麼更新嗎？這還是我們現在所處的環境嗎？情況好些了嗎？事情變得更糟了嗎？就像我們前進的過程中，您認為事情會如何發展？

Yes. Stacy, I'll comment on that. As I said last quarter, really, we began seeing things change mid last year, in the back half of last year as we began discussions with customers for their demand in the following year and out in time, whenever those pricing windows would open up. And those are really just going back to what we've seen in the last 10, 20 years kind of pre-pandemic. So describe it roughly in the low to very low single-digit declines over time. And I'd say just generally that's what we're continuing to see.

是的。史黛西，我會對此發表評論。正如我上個季度所說，實際上，我們在去年年中、去年下半年就開始看到情況發生變化，因為我們開始與客戶討論他們明年的需求，並及時討論定價窗口何時開放。這些實際上只是回到了我們在過去 10 年、20 年大流行前所看到的情況。因此，隨著時間的推移，用低到非常低的個位數下降來粗略地描述它。我想說的是，總的來說，這就是我們繼續看到的情況。

Let me add one more thing, Stacy. I want to give you a bonus answer. You always ask about OpEx. So you're not asking, but I'm going to give you OpEx. Remember that second quarter has a full 3 months of raises, whereas first quarter only had 2 months of raises. So it's something for your modeling.

讓我再補充一件事，史黛西。我想給你一個額外的答案。您總是會問有關營運支出的問題。所以你不是在問，但我會給你營運支出。請記住，第二季有整整 3 個月的加薪，而第一季只有 2 個月的加薪。所以這對你的建模很有幫助。

Our next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

I think in the prepared remarks, you said customers continue to reduce inventory levels, but you're also guiding Q2 sales to be up 4% sequentially. So my question is, should we think of Q2 as kind of a normal seasonal quarter? Just any more color on what you're seeing real time. Are we past the industry inventory correction? Are we kind of getting back to some semblance of -- on normalcy from a demand perspective? Any other color you could give from an end market or geo perspective. Just you are the largest, right, most influential vendor in the market. So I think your perspectives would be very useful to understand where we are in the inventory and the broader demand cycle.

我認為在準備好的發言中，您表示客戶繼續降低庫存水平，但您也指導第二季銷售額環比增長 4%。所以我的問題是，我們是否應該將第二季視為正常的季節性？只是為您即時看到的內容添加更多顏色。我們是否已經度過了產業庫存調整期？從需求角度來看，我們是否正在回到某種表面上的常態？您可以從終端市場或地理角度給出的任何其他顏色。只有你才是市場上最大、最適合、最有影響力的供應商。因此，我認為您的觀點對於了解我們在庫存和更廣泛的需求週期中的位置非常有用。

Yes. Vivek, let me start with what we saw happen in the last quarter because I think it's helpful. First, we saw personal electronics was the first market that went into the correction. It really is -- was the first to come out in the last few quarters. I'd describe it as behaving more seasonal.

是的。 Vivek，讓我從我們上個季度看到的情況開始，因為我認為這很有幫助。首先，我們看到個人電子產品是第一個進入調整的市場。它確實是——是最近幾季第一個出現的。我將其描述為更具季節性。

If you go to the other end of the spectrum, we've had industrial, which has been declining sequentially from some time. And over the last few quarters, we've been talking about how there's some asynchronous behavior inside of the 12, 13 sectors that we have there. That continued inside of the quarter. So we've got some of the later-cycle sectors that are continuing to decline and declining at double-digit rates. But there are some that are beginning to begin to slow in the declines and even a couple that grew sequentially.

如果你走到光譜的另一端，我們有工業，它從一段時間以來一直在連續下降。在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在討論 12、13 個扇區內部如何存在一些異步行為。這種情況在本季內持續存在。因此，我們看到一些週期後期的行業正在繼續下滑，並且以兩位數的速度下滑。但有些企業的下降速度開始放緩，甚至有些企業持續成長。

So that I would just describe as being more mixed this quarter, which is certainly different than last quarter. So -- and look, historically, second quarter is a seasonally strong quarter for us. So it's not unusual for us to see sequential growth sequentially. Do you have a follow-on?

因此，我只是將本季度描述為更加複雜，這肯定與上個季度不同。因此，從歷史上看，第二季對我們來說是一個季節性強勁的季度。因此，我們看到連續成長並不罕見。你有後續嗎？

Maybe if I press a little bit on that. For Q2, specifically industrial and automotive, do you think -- is your assumption that customers will continue to work down inventory? Or do you think that they have worked down most of the inventory and we are getting back to some semblance of what normal demand looks like for TI in Q2? Like what does your guidance actually imply, that are we below seasonal? Are we seasonal? Or are we something different?

也許如果我稍微強調一下的話。對於第二季度，特別是工業和汽車行業，您是否認為客戶將繼續減少庫存？或者您認為他們已經減少了大部分庫存，並且我們在第二季度恢復了 TI 的正常需求？就像您的指導實際上意味著什麼，我們是否低於季節性？我們是季節性的嗎？或者我們有什麼不同？

Well, again, we're not in the practice of giving guidance by end market. And -- but even inside of last quarter, as we looked at it inside of industrial, there obviously were some customers that are nearing the end of that inventory depletion cycle. So as you know, we don't -- we try to be very cautious and not to try to predict tops or bottoms or those types of things and just report what we see and just stick to the facts.

好吧，再說一遍，我們並沒有按照終端市場提供指導。而且 - 但即使在上個季度內，當我們在工業內部觀察時，顯然有一些客戶已接近庫存消耗週期的結束。如你所知，我們不會——我們盡量保持謹慎，不要試圖預測頂部或底部或類似的事情，而只是報告我們所看到的情況並堅持事實。

Our next question is from Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的托馬斯·奧馬利。

Mine is in regards to China. 2023 data came out recently, and it looks like some of the larger North American players didn't really lose share despite some concerns on the trailing edge that you would have some increased China competition. Can you talk -- has there been any change in the way that customer behavior has kind of trended over the last couple of months? And can you talk about just that competitive environment? Are you seeing more players there? Are you seeing players that you didn't see before? Any color on China would be super useful.

我的想法是關於中國的。 2023 年的數據最近公佈，看起來一些較大的北美廠商並沒有真正失去市場份額，儘管有人擔心中國的競爭會加劇。能談談過去幾個月客戶行為趨勢有什麼改變嗎？能談談競爭環境嗎？您在那裡看到更多玩家了嗎？您是否看到了以前未曾見過的球員？中國的任何顏色都會非常有用。

Sure, yes. Thanks, Tom, for that question. And I would say no change over the last couple of months. But I think, certainly, over the last few years, there's many things that are changing in China. We've got very competent local competitors there as well as there's subsidized capacity going in place. And when you compare that to 5 or 10 years ago, is it harder to compete there? It certainly is. But again, I would not describe that as a competitive landscape that's changing overnight. And we've talked about that for some years.

當然，是的。謝謝湯姆提出這個問題。我想說過去幾個月沒有任何改變。但我認為，在過去的幾年裡，中國確實發生了許多變化。我們在那裡有非常有能力的本地競爭對手，並且有適當的補貼產能。與 5 或 10 年前相比，那裡的競爭是否更困難？必然是。但同樣，我不會將其描述為一夜之間變化的競爭格局。我們已經討論這個問題好幾年了。

So China is an important market for us. That -- it continues to be a growing market. And we can and will compete there to support our customers. So our competitive advantages, whether that's our manufacturing and technology, the breadth of the portfolio, the reach of the markets, all serve us very, very well in China. Do you have a follow-on?

所以中國對我們來說是一個重要的市場。那 - 它仍然是一個不斷成長的市場。我們能夠而且將會在那裡競爭以支持我們的客戶。因此，我們的競爭優勢，無論是我們的製造和技術、產品組合的廣度、市場的覆蓋範圍，都對我們在中國的發展非常有利。你有後續嗎？

Yes. Just on auto particularly. I know that you're not guiding the out-quarter, but just conversations that you've had since you last updated us with those customers. I think you just mentioned that inventories are coming down. But through the pandemic, there was a kind of change of stated ordering patterns of just-in-time to just-in-case. Do you see that kind of persisting? Or do you think that we're moving back to a situation in which customers really want to have much lower inventory on their balance sheet? Obviously, you have a unique supply chain, but just any thoughts on just the auto environment, particularly through the last several months.

是的。尤其是在汽車上。我知道您不是在指導季度外業務，而只是在您上次向我們通報最新情況後與這些客戶進行的對話。我想你剛才提到庫存正在下降。但透過大流行，規定的訂購模式發生了某種變化，從即時到以防萬一。你看到這樣的堅持嗎？或者您認為我們正在回到客戶真正希望其資產負債表上的庫存大幅降低的情況？顯然，你有一個獨特的供應鏈，但只是對汽車環境的任何想法，特別是在過去的幾個月。

Sure, yes. Thanks again, Tom. I would say that many customers, and especially those in automotive, as they went through and dealt with the disruptions that they had in supply chains actually, were very thoughtful in looking at where their supply is coming from, what things that they can do differently well beyond just carrying extra days of inventory. And when they went through that analysis, I think many found that they have a pretty significant dependence on wafers coming out of both China and Taiwan.

當然，是的。再次感謝，湯姆。我想說，許多客戶，尤其是汽車行業的客戶，在經歷並處理供應鏈中實際出現的中斷時，非常深思熟慮地考慮了他們的供應來自哪裡，他們可以做哪些不同的事情不僅僅是攜帶額外天數的庫存。當他們進行分析時，我認為許多人發現他們對來自中國和台灣的晶圓有相當大的依賴。

And what they described that to us is geopolitically dependable capacity is what they're seeking. And again, we've talked about that before in our capital management updates. We believe that that's going to be highly sought after. It is -- we are seeing that today. And so I think we're in a position to be able to support customers and that growth that will come from that.

他們向我們描述的地緣政治上可靠的能力正是他們所尋求的。再說一次，我們之前在資本管理更新中已經討論過這一點。我們相信這將受到高度追捧。是的——我們今天看到了這一點。因此，我認為我們能夠支持客戶以及由此帶來的成長。

Our next question is from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

I'm going to ask a couple of questions. I guess for the first one, Dave, I know you don't want to guide by the segments, but you gave the quarter-over-quarters. Could you give us what the year-over-years were by end market in the first quarter, please?

我要問幾個問題。我想對於第一個，戴夫，我知道你不想按細分市場進行指導，但你給了季度環比。請您告訴我們第一季終端市場年比情況如何？

I can do that, yes. So the industrial market was down about 25% from a year ago. Automotive was down lower single digits. Personal electronics was actually up single digits. Comms equipment was down about 50%, and enterprise system was down mid-teens. Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

我能做到，是的。因此工業市場比一年前下降了約25%。汽車業跌幅較低個位數。個人電子產品實際上上漲了個位數。通訊設備下降了約 50%，企業系統下降了 15%。羅斯，你有後續嗎？

I do. Rafael, you talked a little bit about the trajectory of the grant side of the CHIPS Act -- or excuse me, the ITC side and where you're getting the money in over time. Does any of that inflows of cash have a differing impact on the income statement? Or is it just the same, it's just a matter of timing and when you're getting that $1 billion as opposed to, I think, you said $500 million before?

我願意。 Rafael，您談到了《CHIPS 法案》撥款方面的軌跡，或者對不起，ITC 方面以及隨著時間的推移您將在何處獲得資金。這些現金流入是否會對損益表產生不同的影響？或者是一樣的，這只是一個時間問題，當你拿到那 10 億美元而不是你之前說的 5 億美元？

Right. No, no direct impact on the income statement. That's already played in as the lower depreciation and are already flowing through the P&L and in our expectations on depreciation. Of course, having more cash does have an impact in terms of you have more cash, you're going to have more interest income. But put that aside, that's kind of below the profit line or the operating profit line.

正確的。不會，對損益表沒有直接影響。這已經作為較低的折舊發揮作用，並且已經滲透到損益表和我們對折舊的預期中。當然，擁有更多的現金確實會產生影響，因為你擁有更多的現金，你就會有更多的利息收入。但拋開這一點來說，這有點低於利潤線或營業利潤線。

So speaking of depreciation, let me give you an update on that. We've been talking about depreciation for this year, $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion. That is -- we continue to expect that, but we're more likely to come in at the bottom half of that range. And for 2025, we continue to expect $2 billion to $2.5 billion in depreciation.

說到折舊，讓我向您介紹一下最新情況。我們一直在談論今年的折舊，15 億至 18 億美元。也就是說，我們繼續預期這一點，但我們更有可能進入該範圍的下半部分。到 2025 年，我們仍預期折舊額為 20 億至 25 億美元。

Our next question is from Chris Danely with Citibank.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的克里斯·丹利（Chris Danely）。

Rafael, just another question on the balance sheet and cash. So you guys have seen the share count kind of flatten out here for the last 4 or 5 quarters, and then you're building cash and increasing your debt. I guess what's changed? Traditionally, you've sort of taken the share count down slowly but steadily. Any sort of changes in the long-term thinking there on cash, usage of cash, et cetera?

拉斐爾，這是關於資產負債表和現金的另一個問題。所以你們已經看到過去四、五個季度的股票數量趨於平緩，然後你們正在累積現金並增加債務。我猜有什麼改變？傳統上，你會緩慢而穩定地減少份額計數。對現金、現金使用等的長期看法有什麼改變嗎？

Yes. When it comes to capital management, it all depends, and it depends on circumstances. And at the moment, our objective when it comes to -- you can -- you've known us for a while. We return all cash flow -- or cash flow to the owners of the company, and we do that over time. But there are times to increase liquidity and to build up cash. So you have seen us over the last couple of years do that and steadily increase the cash on the balance sheet. We finished at $10.4 billion last quarter.

是的。說到資本管理，這一切都取決於情況。目前，我們的目標是──你可以──你已經認識我們一段時間了。我們將所有現金流或現金流返還給公司所有者，並且隨著時間的推移我們會這樣做。但有時需要增加流動性並累積現金。所以你已經看到我們在過去幾年裡這樣做了，並穩步增加了資產負債表上的現金。上季我們的營收為 104 億美元。

And we've done that very consciously, right, to protect the investments that we're making, particularly the $5 billion per year CapEx investments in manufacturing because that is the most important allocation of capital, has been for the last few years and will continue to be for the next 3 years. So with that in mind, we've had that in mind as we have made overall capital allocation decisions, including the decisions on repurchases.

我們非常有意識地這樣做，是為了保護我們正在進行的投資，特別是每年50 億美元的製造業資本支出投資，因為這是最重要的資本配置，在過去幾年中一直如此，並且將會如此。因此，考慮到這一點，我們在做出整體資本配置決策（包括回購決策）時就考慮到了這一點。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

克里斯，你有後續嗎？

Yes, Dave. Just another question on China but more on the, I guess, insourcing side. So some of your competitors have talked about this impacting them. Do you guys see an impact of this on TI? Would or will this alter your long-term, I guess, growth expectations or thoughts on your China business? Just any color there would be very helpful.

是的，戴夫。這又是一個關於中國的問題，但我想更多是關於內包方面的問題。所以你的一些競爭對手已經談到了這對他們的影響。你們認為這對 TI 有何影響？我想，這是否會改變您對中國業務的長期成長預期或想法？任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes. So I'll start and, Dave, if you want to chime in. But as Dave alluded to earlier on the call, China is a very important market. We need to compete there. We do compete there, and we compete to win there. China, there -- it's pretty clear that there's an incentive to design local semiconductor suppliers. I think that's what you're referring to as insourcing. And today, that share, my guess, my sense is 10% to 15% of the local content is sourced by local semiconductor suppliers. I think the exact number is 12%, the one I saw. So that means there's another 88% that is shared now between U.S. and European suppliers. And our goal is to continue that fight and maintain and gain that share, competing with local suppliers but also competing with U.S. and European semiconductor suppliers.

是的。那麼我就開始吧，戴夫，如果你想插話的話。 但正如戴夫早些時候在電話會議中提到的那樣，中國是一個非常重要的市場。我們需要在那裡競爭。我們確實在那裡競爭，並且我們在那裡競爭以取勝。中國—很明顯有動力設計本地半導體供應商。我認為這就是您所說的內包。今天，我猜，我的感覺是，10% 到 15% 的本地內容是由本地半導體供應商採購的。我認為確切的數字是 12%，就是我看到的那個。這意味著美國和歐洲供應商現在共享另外 88% 的份額。我們的目標是繼續這場鬥爭，維持並獲得這一份額，與當地供應商競爭，同時也與美國和歐洲半導體供應商競爭。

Yes. And maybe I'll just add. In China -- in any market, we've just got to have the best parts. And when we have that, that means we've got to be ahead of competitors, whether that's on performance, on support, availability and cost. So -- and we have customers in every region that are beginning to think about where they're sourcing products from. So customers that aren't in China are looking at our, as they describe it, geopolitically dependable capacity. And that's about 80% of our revenue.

是的。也許我會補充一下。在中國，在任何市場，我們都必須擁有最好的零件。當我們做到這一點時，這意味著我們必須領先於競爭對手，無論是在效能、支援、可用性和成本方面。因此，我們每個地區的客戶都開始考慮從哪裡採購產品。因此，正如他們所描述的那樣，中國以外的客戶正在關注我們在地緣政治上可靠的產能。這約占我們收入的 80%。

The 20% that's in China, we have customers in China that have and support global markets. And they're coming and describing our geopolitical dependable capacity and wanting to have access to it because it is very unique. We're the only ones that are building at scale outside of China and Taiwan capacity. So customers understand that. They understand it both in China as well as outside.

20% 在中國，我們在中國的客戶擁有並支援全球市場。他們來描述我們的地緣政治可靠能力，並希望獲得它，因為它非常獨特。我們是唯一一家在中國和台灣產能之外進行大規模建設的公司。所以客戶明白這一點。無論是在中國還是國外，他們都明白這一點。

Our next question is from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I've asked this question before, but it keeps coming up. Can you talk about how you think about pricing kind of more strategically as you contemplate having a decent amount of capacity, more 300-millimeter capacity, more subsidization? Does that change the pricing paradigm at all? Are there markets where you might be more price-aggressive than you wouldn't be, if any of that were different?

我以前曾問過這個問題，但它不斷出現。當您考慮擁有相當大的容量、更多的 300 毫米容量、更多的補貼時，您能談談您如何考慮更具策略性的定價嗎？這會徹底改變定價模式嗎？是否存在一些市場，您可能會比不會採取的價格更具侵略性（如果有任何不同的話）？

Yes. So the answer will be amazingly consistent with how you've asked it before. But we haven't changed our strategy on pricing. You know that pricing doesn't move quickly in our industry, and it isn't the primary reason why customers choose our products overall. So we regularly monitor pricing for all of our products. That includes all end markets and all product categories and all regions. And we price to be competitive. And we can do that because we've got a great product portfolio, and we've got great access to the markets through our channels. And we've got competitive products because we build it on 300-millimeter. So hopefully, that's amazingly consistent. Do you have a follow-on?

是的。因此，答案將與您之前提出的問題驚人地一致。但我們沒有改變定價策略。您知道，我們產業的定價變化並不快，這也不是客戶整體選擇我們產品的主要原因。因此，我們定期監控所有產品的定價。這包括所有終端市場、所有產品類別和所有地區。我們的定價具有競爭力。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們擁有出色的產品組合，並且透過我們的管道可以輕鬆進入市場。我們擁有具有競爭力的產品，因為我們是在 300 毫米的基礎上建造的。所以希望這是驚人的一致。你有後續嗎？

Yes. Yes, in terms of the embedded business, I know you've had a number of kind of vertical markets that you deemphasized and things like that with kind of a focus on more of a core kind of catalog strategy in that business. Where are you in that? Do you expect that you would -- that your embedded business would sort of track the broader microcontroller business? Or just how do you think about the transitions that are happening there?

是的。是的，就嵌入式業務而言，我知道您有許多類型的垂直市場，但您不那麼重視，類似的事情更專注於該業務中的核心目錄策略。你在哪裡？您是否期望您的嵌入式業務能夠追隨更廣泛的微控制器業務？或者您如何看待那裡正在發生的轉變？

Yes. I think that we continue to make progress overall in our embedded business. The goal there is to have that business growing and contributing to our free cash flow over a long time. We think it's a great business and continue to invest. So we're very happy with that strategic progress.

是的。我認為我們的嵌入式業務總體上繼續取得進展。我們的目標是讓該業務長期成長並為我們的自由現金流做出貢獻。我們認為這是一項偉大的業務並繼續投資。因此，我們對這項戰略進展感到非常滿意。

So I think in the near term, of course, we're not going to be immune to cycle-related corrections. It's a little bit later because of the constraints that we have due to embedded relying on foundry supply. And as you know, we're investing to put capacity in place. And we'll have control of that in the future and really are in a good position to gain share there.

所以我認為，在短期內，我們當然不會免受與週期相關的調整的影響。由於嵌入式依賴代工供應而受到限制，所以時間晚了一點。如您所知，我們正在投資以確保產能到位。未來我們將控制這一點，並且確實處於獲得份額的有利位置。

Our next question is from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

Dave, I had a question about the Q4 -- I mean the Q2 outlook. So I know, obviously, you can't guide by market and things like that. But from a bookings perspective, are we starting to see sort of a broad-based recovery in bookings? Or would you still say it's quite selective in all the different applications that you're targeting?

戴夫，我有一個關於第四季的問題——我的意思是第二季的前景。所以我知道，顯然，你不能以市場之類的東西來指導。但從預訂的角度來看，我們是否開始看到預訂出現廣泛的復甦？或者您仍然會說它在您所針對的所有不同應用程式中都具有相當的選擇性？

Yes. So let me speak to bookings at the top level. We saw bookings increase each month of the quarter. That is very typical that we would see in a first quarter. I don't have bookings by end market. If there's something very unusual going on, of course, that would jump out at us. So that's just not something I have here in front of me. But I would describe it as behaving as we would expect it to. And of course, those bookings and other demand signals that we get from our customers are obviously imbued into our guidance. Do you have a follow-on, Tore?

是的。讓我談談高層的預訂。我們看到該季度每個月的預訂量都在增加。這是我們在第一季看到的非常典型的情況。我沒有終端市場的預訂。當然，如果發生了非常不尋常的事情，我們就會注意到。所以這不是我面前的東西。但我認為它的行為符合我們的預期。當然，我們從客戶那裡獲得的那些預訂和其他需求訊號顯然已融入我們的指導中。你有後續嗎，托雷？

Yes. That's very helpful. As my follow-up, you mentioned there's a few segments within the industrial category that are starting to grow or perhaps have found the bottom from an inventory correction perspective. Can you talk about which segments those are?

是的。這非常有幫助。作為我的後續行動，您提到工業類別中的一些細分市場正在開始成長，或者從庫存修正的角度來看可能已經觸底。您能談談那些是哪些部分嗎？

Yes. Again, as we talked about over the last several quarters now that there was markets that were behaving -- or sectors that were behaving asynchronously, so there are shorter-cycle investment sectors that began to roll earlier, longer-term investment cycles that were rolling later really just the last couple of quarters into it. So it's really -- if you had to kind of divide them out, that's what they would look like.

是的。再次，正如我們在過去幾個季度中談到的那樣，現在有些市場正在表現，或者有些部門表現不同步，所以有些週期較短的投資部門開始更早滾動，而長期投資週期則開始滾動後來真的只是最後幾季。所以，如果你必須把它們分開，那就是它們的樣子。

Our last question is from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的克里斯·卡索。

First question is related to the buybacks, and I think you addressed this in a prior question. But I guess the question is, what would be the trigger for being able to resume some degree of buybacks? We realize that the intention is to return 100% of excess free cash flow. But at what point does the cash in the balance sheet and kind of industry conditions allow you to kind of come back to what you've been doing previously?

第一個問題與回購有關，我認為您在先前的問題中已經解決了這個問題。但我想問題是，什麼會觸發能夠恢復一定程度的回購？我們意識到，其目的是返還 100% 的超額自由現金流。但是，資產負債表中的現金和行業狀況在什麼時候可以讓您回到之前所做的事情？

Yes. Well, a couple of things. For example, the data point that I'll give you is our free cash flow for the trailing 12 months was $940 million. And we returned in -- also in trailing 12 months $4.8 billion. So one catalyst for a change there would be once we're past this investment phase that is consuming a good chunk of that free cash flow. Another catalyst is obviously revenue and how that behaves over a number of years. But -- so these are just some of the puts and takes that we think about when we're allocating capital.

是的。嗯，有幾件事。例如，我向您提供的數據點是我們過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 9.4 億美元。我們在過去 12 個月內也回報了 48 億美元。因此，一旦我們度過了消耗大量自由現金流的投資階段，就會出現變革的催化劑。另一個催化劑顯然是收入及其多年來的表現。但是，這些只是我們在分配資本時考慮的一些看跌期權和看跌期權。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

克里斯，你有後續嗎？

I do. And I guess the question is about where TI is allocating the R&D investment going forward and how that may be changing. Over last year, it looks like auto industrial is about 70% of your revenue, and I know that's by design. But you've got some segments such as comm equipment that have been down a lot more. As we look out over the next 2 years or so, do you think that percentage of revenue on the segments kind of stays about where it is right now? Or based on the R&D investments you're making, do you think that changes substantially?

我願意。我想問題在於 TI 將在哪裡分配未來的研發投資以及這種情況可能會如何變化。去年，汽車工業約佔您收入的 70%，我知道這是有意為之。但有些領域，例如通訊設備，下降幅度更大。當我們展望未來兩年左右的時間時，您認為該細分市場的收入百分比是否會保持在目前的水平？或者根據您正在進行的研發投資，您認為情況會發生重大變化嗎？

Yes. And it's a great question, Chris. So let me just use as a backdrop for those that hadn't looked at our capital management slide deck. And Slide 21 shows our percentage of our revenue by end market. And the middle column there talks about what we're doing directionally from an R&D spend. So -- and we've talked about for some time that -- our belief that there's going to be secular trends and increasing semiconductors in industrial and automotive. And as a result of that, we have been taking investments up there.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，克里斯。因此，讓我為那些沒有看過我們的資本管理幻燈片的人提供一個背景。投影片 21 顯示了我們按終端市場劃分的收入百分比。中間的一欄討論了我們從研發支出的方向所做的事情。因此，我們已經討論了一段時間了，我們相信工業和汽車領域將會出現長期趨勢並增加半導體。因此，我們一直在那裡進行投資。

And the other markets, though, if you look at personal electronics and communications equipment, our investments there have been and continue to be very steady because we can find great opportunities inside of those markets. And so we'll continue those investments.

但在其他市場，如果你看看個人電子和通訊設備，我們在那裡的投資一直並將繼續非常穩定，因為我們可以在這些市場中找到巨大的機會。因此我們將繼續這些投資。

And then enterprise systems, we've taken up the investments there slightly. And there's just opportunities, and enterprise systems likely will be a good grower as well. It doesn't have quite the same dynamics as industrial and automotive for us. But certainly, things that sit inside of enterprise, we believe, will make that an above-average grower over the next decade plus.

然後是企業系統，我們在那裡進行了一些投資。機會無所不在，企業系統也可能成為良好的成長者。對我們來說，它與工業和汽車產業並不具有完全相同的動力。但我們相信，企業內部的因素肯定會讓企業在未來十年內成為高於平均的成長者。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Rafael to wrap up.

因此，我將把它交給 Rafael 來完成。

Okay. Thanks, Dave. Let me wrap up by emphasizing what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for our owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our 3 ambitions. We will act like owners who will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we're personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbor. When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you and have a good evening.

好的。謝謝，戴夫。最後，我要強調一下我們之前所說的內容。我們的核心是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終，我們的目標和衡量進展並為所有者創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。在我們努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三個目標。我們將像擁有公司數十年的所有者一樣行事。我們將在不斷變化的世界中適應並取得成功。我們將成為一家讓我們個人感到自豪並希望成為我們鄰居的公司。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和所有者都會受益。謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。