德州儀器 (TXN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer, Haviv Ilan, and our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾(Dave Pahl)，與我一起的還有我們的首席執行官哈維夫·伊蘭(Haviv Ilan) 和首席財務官拉斐爾·利扎爾迪( Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

對於錯過該發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。此次電話會議正在網路上進行現場直播，您可以透過我們的網站進行存取。此外，今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將在我們的網站上重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially for management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知，以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, he'll provide insight into second quarter revenue results, with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on capital management, as well as share the guidance for the third quarter of 2024. With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，哈維夫將首先簡要概述本季。接下來，他將提供對第二季收入結果的見解，以及我們在終端市場上看到的一些細節。最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績，提供資本管理的最新情況，並分享 2024 年第三季的指導。

Thanks, Dave. Let me also start by welcoming everyone to the call. I'm looking forward to joining our quarterly earnings calls moving forward, and sharing more details about our business strategy with the investment community. It is an opportunity for me to directly share more information about our results and our strategic progress.

謝謝，戴夫。首先我要歡迎大家來參加這次電話會議。我期待加入我們的季度財報電話會議，並與投資界分享更多有關我們業務策略的細節。對我來說，這是一個直接分享更多有關我們的成果和策略進展的資訊的機會。

With that, I'll start with a quick overview of the second quarter. Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected, at $3.8 billion, an increase of 4% sequentially and a decrease of 16% year-over-year. Analog revenue declined 11% year-over-year, and embedded processing declined 31%. Our other segment declined 22% from the year ago quarter.

接下來，我將首先快速概述第二季。該季度營收基本符合預期，為 38 億美元，季增 4%，年減 16%。模擬收入年減 11%，嵌入式處理收入下降 31%。我們的其他部門較去年同期下降 22%。

Now I'll provide some insight into our second quarter revenue by end market. Our results continue to reflect the asynchronous behavior across our end markets that we've seen throughout this cycle. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it is more informative at this time.

現在我將按終端市場提供一些關於我們第二季度收入的見解。我們的結果繼續反映了我們在整個週期中看到的終端市場的異步行為。與上季類似，我將專注於連續效能，因為此時它提供了更多資訊。

First, the industrial market was down low single digits. The automotive market was down mid-single digits. Personal electronics grew mid-teens, with broad-based growth while demonstrating continued improvement compared to its low point in the first quarter of 2023. Next, communication equipment was up mid-single digits, and finally, enterprise systems was up about 20%.

首先，工業市場出現低個位數下跌。汽車市場下跌了個位數左右。個人電子產品成長了 10 位數左右，成長基礎廣泛，同時與 2023 年第一季的低點相比持續改善。

Lastly, before I pass it on to Rafael, I'd like to share a few comments regarding our capacity investments. We and our customers remain pleased with our progress of the expansion of our 300-millimeter manufacturing capacity. These investments reflect our confidence in the opportunity ahead, which remains high for several reasons.

最後，在向 Rafael 轉達之前，我想分享一些關於我們產能投資的評論。我們和我們的客戶對我們 300 毫米製造能力的擴張進展感到滿意。這些投資反映了我們對未來機會的信心，出於多種原因，我們對未來機會的信心仍然很高。

First, we have a high level of confidence in the secular growth of semiconductor content particularly in industrial and automotive, where we have greater exposure and strong product position. Second, geopolitically dependable low-cost 300-millimeter capacity will be increasingly critical and valuable, and our investments enable us to support customer demand at scale.

首先，我們對半導體含量的長期成長充滿信心，特別是在工業和汽車領域，我們在這兩個領域擁有更大的曝光度和強大的產品地位。其次，地緣政治上可靠的低成本 300 毫米產能將變得越來越重要和有價值，我們的投資使我們能夠大規模支持客戶需求。

To share more details on our progress, which we believe is helpful for all of our shareholders to understand, I plan to hold an off-cycle capital management call with Rafael and Dave on August 20. During the call, I will provide more granularity on our capacity investments, along with a framework of revenue and free cash flow per share scenarios.

為了分享更多有關我們進度的細節（我們認為這有助於所有股東了解），我計劃於8 月20 日與Rafael 和Dave 舉行非週期資本管理電話會議。的資訊我們的產能投資，以及收入框架和每股自由現金流情景。

With that, let me turn it over to Rafael to review profitability, capital management, and our outlook.

接下來，讓我將其交給 Rafael 來審查獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone. As Haviv mentioned, second quarter revenue was $3.8 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.2 billion, or 58% of revenue. Sequentially, gross profit margin increased 60 basis points, primarily due to higher revenue as well as lower manufacturing unit costs due to increased factory loadings and more manufacturing internally, with more wafers on 300-millimeter.

謝謝哈維夫，大家下午好。正如哈維夫所提到的，第二季營收為 38 億美元。該季度毛利為 22 億美元，佔營收的 58%。隨後，毛利率增加了 60 個基點，主要是由於收入增加以及工廠負載增加和更多內部製造（更多 300 毫米晶圓）導致製造單位成本降低。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $963 million, up 3% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion or 23% of revenue. Operating profit was $1.2 billion in the quarter or 33% of revenue, and was down 37% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the second quarter was $1.1 billion or $1.22 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.05 benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

該季度營運支出為 9.63 億美元，比去年同期成長 3%，基本符合預期。過去 12 個月的營運支出為 37 億美元，佔收入的 23%。本季營業利潤為 12 億美元，佔營收的 33%，比去年同期下降 37%。第二季淨利為 11 億美元，即每股 1.22 美元。每股收益包括 0.05 美元的福利，這些福利不在我們最初的指導中。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.6 billion in the quarter and $6.4 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.1 billion in the quarter and $5 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $1.5 billion. As a reminder, free cash flow includes benefits from the CHIPS Act investment tax credit, which was $312 million for second quarter.

現在讓我從我們的現金產生開始評論我們的資本管理結果。本季營運現金流為 16 億美元，過去 12 個月營運現金流為 64 億美元。本季資本支出為 11 億美元，過去 12 個月資本支出為 50 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 15 億美元。提醒一下，自由現金流包括 CHIPS 法案投資稅收抵免的收益，第二季為 3.12 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $71 million of our stock. In total, we returned $4.9 billion to our owners in the past 12 months. Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter.

本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息，並回購了 7,100 萬美元的股票。在過去 12 個月中，我們總共向所有者返還了 49 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第二季末現金和短期投資為 97 億美元。

In the quarter, we repaid $300 million of debt. Total debt outstanding is now $14 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.8%. Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.1 billion, up $23 million from the prior quarter, and days were 229, down 6 days sequentially.

本季度，我們償還了 3 億美元的債務。目前未償債務總額為 140 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.8%。季末庫存為 41 億美元，比上季增加 2,300 萬美元，天數為 229 天，比上一季減少 6 天。

For the third quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.94 billion to $4.26 billion, and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.24 to $1.48. We continue to expect our effective tax rate to be above 13%.

我們預計 TI 第三季營收將在 39.4 億美元至 42.6 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.24 美元至 1.48 美元之間。我們仍然預計有效稅率將高於 13%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation, and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續實現每股自由現金流的長期成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說到這裡，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we will provide you an opportunity for a follow-up. Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開提問線路。為了給盡可能多的人提問的機會，請限制自己提出一個問題。在我們回覆後，我們將為您提供跟進的機會。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

提摩西‧阿庫裡，瑞銀集團。

Thanks a lot. There were some comments from a geopolitical perspective. One of the candidates is talking about the China-Taiwan relationship, and I'm just asking how the geopolitical environment is sort of impacting your customers' buying decisions?

多謝。有一些來自地緣政治角度的評論。其中一位候選人正在談論中國與台灣的關係，我只是想問地緣政治環境如何影響顧客的購買決策？

I think you said last call that even some of your Chinese customers who are exporting product want geopolitically dependable capacity. I think you talked about that being kind of an increasingly big factor in autos. Can you talk about that, and is that beginning to drive some share gains for you?

我想你在上次電話會議中說過，即使是一些出口產品的中國客戶也希望獲得地緣政治上可靠的產能。我想你談到了這是汽車中一個日益重要的因素。您能談談這一點嗎？

Thanks, Tim. I'll take that, it's Haviv. First, geopolitical dependable capacity is not a new thing for us. We have started to see these requests coming, I think, two or three years ago when tension started to rise. But as we reflect on it now three years in, it's obvious that there is more and more tension.

謝謝，蒂姆。我接受，是哈維夫。首先，地緣政治可靠能力對我們來說並不是什麼新鮮事。我認為，兩三年前，當緊張局勢開始加劇時，我們就開始看到這些要求。但三年過去了，當我們反思這一點時，很明顯，緊張局勢越來越大。

Usually at the highest levels of our customers, I'm talking about leadership of CEO, or Chief Purchasing Officer, looking at their supply chain and making sure that they are going to be immune from whatever is thrown at them, part of it is geopolitical tension.

通常，在我們客戶的最高層，我指的是執行長或首席採購官的領導力，他們會審視他們的供應鏈，並確保他們不會受到任何拋給他們的影響，其中一部分是地緣政治因素緊張。

And this is where TI is a great answer. We are a very unique supplier in the sense of we can provide capacity at scale, meaning the amount of wafers and the size of the capacity that we are building is very high. It is a very affordable capacity, us building our parts on 300-millimeter wafers allows for a lower cost per chip, and then building them internally in our assembly and test houses also provides a very good low cost structure.

這就是 TI 提供的最佳答案。我們是一家非常獨特的供應商，因為我們可以大規模提供產能，這意味著我們正在建造的晶圓數量和產能規模非常高。這是一個非常實惠的產能，我們在 300 毫米晶圓上建造零件可以降低每個晶片的成本，然後在我們的組裝和測試工廠內部建造它們也提供了非常好的低成本結構。

And last but not least, is this geopolitically dependable capacity, meaning our fabs are being built in the US, mainly in Texas and in Lehi, Utah. And we provide capacity that is at scale, affordable and dependable.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，這種在地緣政治上可靠的產能，這意味著我們的晶圓廠正在美國建造，主要在德克薩斯州和猶他州李海。我們提供規模化、經濟實惠且可靠的產能。

And yes, every time there is some news out there, we are seeing more interest. We have seen that grown over the last several years. And in that sense, our discussions with our customers are providing us more opportunity to win positions in future platforms. I do believe we are taking a bigger share, and this is part of our confidence to continue with our investments to serve that opportunity moving forward.

是的，每當有新聞出現時，我們都會看到更多的興趣。我們已經看到這種情況在過去幾年中有所增長。從這個意義上說，我們與客戶的討論為我們提供了更多機會在未來平台中贏得地位。我確實相信我們正在佔據更大的份額，這是我們繼續投資以服務未來機會的信心的一部分。

Last but not least, you have touched China. Yes, you're right. If I take an example and just on the automotive side, our customers in China do care a lot about their export business. In that sense, our capacity is highly welcomed by them because we can compete at the market price with a very competitive offering, yet have that dependability to serve our customers, not only in China, but also outside of China for their export business.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，你觸及了中國。你是對的。如果我舉個例子，僅在汽車方面，我們在中國的客戶確實非常關心他們的出口業務。從這個意義上說，我們的能力受到他們的高度歡迎，因為我們可以在市場價格上以極具競爭力的產品進行競爭，同時還可以可靠地為我們的客戶提供服務，不僅在中國，而且在中國以外的出口業務。

Any follow-up Tim?

提姆有後續嗎？

I do, yes. Rafael, can you give us an update on CHIPS Act? Do you know how much you're getting yet, and can you kind of talk about that?

我願意，是的。 Rafael，您能為我們介紹一下 CHIPS 法案的最新情況嗎？你知道你得到了多少嗎？

Yes, sure, Tim. So on the grains, frankly, we're still going through the process. So we submitted the application, and we're just working through the details with the CHIPS program office. But given your question, let me comment also on the ITC, the investment tax credit. To date, we have accrued about $1.8 billion in total, that's under 25% ITC.

是的，當然，提姆。因此，坦白說，就穀物而言，我們仍在經歷這個過程。所以我們提交了申請，我們正在與 CHIPS 計畫辦公室討論細節。但考慮到你的問題，讓我也來評論一下 ITC，即投資稅收抵免。迄今為止，我們已累積籌集了約 18 億美元，低於 ITC 的 25%。

This benefit already started flowing through the income statement as lower depreciation. In addition, in second quarter we received, as I said in the prepared remarks, $312 million of cash benefits, and that is reflected in operating and free cash flow, and we expect to receive another $200 million in 3Q, for a total of $1 billion for 2024.

這項收益已經開始隨著折舊降低而流經損益表。此外，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，第二季度我們收到了3.12 億美元的現金福利，這反映在營運和自由現金流中，我們預計第三季將再收到2 億美元，總計1 美元。

Thank you, Tim. Next caller, please.

謝謝你，提姆。請下一位來電者。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

史黛西‧拉斯貢，伯恩斯坦研究中心。

Hey guys, thank you for taking my question. in Q2, it looked like the strength was primarily from a personal electronics given industrial auto organic, and maybe calculate this as well, I don't know, other was pretty strong. I was wondering if you could give us some color on where your expectations for the growth in Q3 sequentially is coming from? Is it still primarily at personal electronics? And I guess maybe, calculators or other stuff. How do I think about the end market trends as we go forward in the next quarter?

嘿夥計們，謝謝你回答我的問題。在第二季度，看起來力量主要來自工業汽車有機的個人電子產品，也許也計算一下，我不知道，其他也相當強大。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對第三季連續成長的預期來自哪裡？它仍然主要集中在個人電子產品嗎？我想也許是計算器或其他東西。當我們下一季前進時，我如何看待終端市場趨勢？

Thanks for the question, Stacy. I'll start, and I'll let Dave add some more color on Q2. So if I go back to the second quarter, yes, if you look at our results, Industrial did decline at the low single digits. Automotive continue to decline at mid-single digits. That was the third quarter in a row of that decline.

謝謝你的提問，史黛西。我會開始，我會讓戴夫為第二季度添加更多色彩。因此，如果我回到第二季度，是的，如果你看看我們的業績，工業確實以較低的個位數下降。汽車業繼續以中個位數下降。這是連續第三個季度出現下降。

Although from a year-over-year perspective, it's still doing well, meaning less than 10% of a decline, a decline about 9% in Q2. Yes, there is strength in personal electronics, and I do see that market. It went through the entire cycle. It troughed sometime in the first quarter of 2023 and we've seen that market strengthening.

儘管從年比來看，它仍然表現良好，意味著下降幅度不到10%，第二季下降了約9%。是的，個人電子產品有實力，我確實看到了這個市場。它經歷了整個週期。它在 2023 年第一季的某個時候觸底，我們看到市場正在走強。

And again, it grew mid-teens sequentially, but close to 20% year-over-year. So there is definitely strength over there. And I would also say that on the enterprise market, again, a smaller revenue for us, but we are seeing a recovery over there. And I believe that inventory correction is behind us.

同樣，它連續增長了 15%左右，但同比增長接近 20%。所以說，那邊一定是有實力的。我還要說，在企業市場上，我們的收入再次減少，但我們看到那裡正在復甦。我相信庫存調整已經過去。

Regarding the other business, it grew thanks to our calculator business, as you mentioned, but also our DLP business, which mainly serves the personal electronics market. And Dave, maybe you can add some more color on the sectors as we talk about Q2.

至於其他業務，正如您所提到的，它的成長得益於我們的計算器業務，以及主要服務於個人電子市場的 DLP 業務。戴夫，也許您可以在我們談論第二季度時為這些行業添加更多色彩。

Yes. I think as we have seen, even inside of industrial, we've had sectors behave asynchronously. So when we first began to see weakness in industrial, which really began in the third quarter, that was the peak in third quarter '22, that was the peak in industrial. We talked about seeing about half of the sectors or so show weakness and those earlier stage sectors, some of them have found bottoms and begun to grow, and you can see some of that bottoming process taking place.

是的。我認為正如我們所看到的，即使在工業內部，我們的部門也有異步行為。因此，當我們第一次開始看到工業疲軟時，實際上是從第三季開始的，那是22年第三季的峰值，那是工業的峰值。我們談到看到大約一半的行業表現出疲軟，而那些早期階段的行業，其中一些已經找到底部並開始成長，您可以看到一些正在發生的觸底過程。

The others, we're only three or so quarters in, and we've got several of them that are continuing to decline at double-digit rates. So again, as we've seen all of our markets behave asynchronously inside of the sectors, we've seen that in industrial as well. Do you have a follow-up, Stacy?

其他的，我們只完成了三個季度左右，其中有幾個仍在以兩位數的速度下降。再說一次，正如我們所看到的所有市場在各行業內的行為是異步的一樣，我們在工業中也看到了這種情況。史黛西，你有後續嗎？

I do actually. Maybe to reask the same question, so you're guiding revenue sequentially up close to $300 million. How do we think about that $300 million growth parsing out across the end markets in Q3?

事實上我確實如此。也許要重新問同樣的問題，所以您將收入連續增加到接近 3 億美元。我們如何看待第三季終端市場 3 億美元的成長？

Yes, Stacy. hey, I'm on the call, but still, we are not going to predict or to give a guidance by market for the third quarter. I mean, the midpoint of the range, we expect revenue to grow about 7%. But as you know, it's not unusual for us to see sequential growth in the third quarter. I mean, typically, this --

是的，史黛西。嘿，我正在打電話，但我們仍然不會對第三季的市場進行預測或給予指導。我的意思是，在該範圍的中點，我們預計收入將增長約 7%。但如您所知，我們看到第三季的連續成長並不罕見。我的意思是，通常，這個——

Is it PE is what I'm asking. Is it (multiple speakers)

我想問的是PE嗎？是嗎（多位發言者）

Typically, Q3 is a quarter where if you go back to pre-COVID days, this is the quarter where customers are preparing their end equipment or the end product for the holiday season. So, it's usually a strong quarter for the company. And we are seeing that very similar behavior right now at the midpoint of our -- of the range of our forecast. I don't know, Dave, if you want to add anything.

通常，如果你回到新冠疫情之前的日子，第三季是客戶為假期準備終端設備或最終產品的季度。因此，對於公司來說，這通常是一個強勁的季度。我們現在在我們的預測範圍的中點看到了非常相似的行為。我不知道，戴夫，你是否想補充什麼。

I think that's good. Thank you, Stacy.

我認為這很好。謝謝你，史黛西。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

維韋克·阿里亞 (Vivek Arya)，美國銀行。

Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the China market, and what you're seeing in terms of not just the demand side, but are you seeing any incremental supply coming on that can create a concern from a pricing perspective? Because every time this question is asked to industries, and not just TI, the answer is always that, well, the IP is not there, they don't have product breath and whatnot, but they're still buying a lot of trailing edge equipment. So at what point, Haviv, does that start to become a concern from just a global capacity and global pricing perspective for Texas Instruments?

感謝您提出我的問題。我想問中國市場，您不僅在需求方面看到了什麼，而且您是否看到任何增量供應的出現可能會從定價角度引起擔憂？因為每次向各行業（而不僅僅是 TI）提出這個問題時，答案始終是，IP 不存在，他們沒有產品呼吸之類的東西，但他們仍然購買大量後緣產品設備。那麼，哈維夫，從德州儀器 (TI) 的全球產能和全球定價角度來看，這在什麼時候開始成為一個問題？

Thanks, Vivek. Let me start with the first part of your question on how the China market did because I think it was a good quarter for our China business. Our China headquarters business grew sequentially at about 20% versus the first quarter. And we've seen the momentum across all markets. I mean, all five markets grew sequentially, I think, 15% or 20%.

謝謝，維韋克。讓我從你問題的第一部分開始，關於中國市場的表現，因為我認為這個季度對我們的中國業務來說是一個很好的季度。我們的中國總部業務較第一季環比成長約 20%。我們已經看到了所有市場的勢頭。我的意思是，我認為所有五個市場都連續成長了 15% 或 20%。

So they all did well. And this is after seven quarters of sequential decline. So if you think about the way I look at the China market, and it was exposed to all end markets for TI, it took seven quarters for this asynchronous cycle to go through.

所以他們都做得很好。這是在連續七個季度下降之後。因此，如果您考慮一下我對中國市場的看法，並且它接觸到 TI 的所有終端市場，那麼這個非同步週期需要七個季度才能完成。

Starting with PE, personal electronics, then spreading to industrial and enterprise and just lately to automotive. But all of these have now corrected and Q2 was a good quarter for our business. And I believe we are now shipping to end demand, meaning customers have stopped managing their inventories over there.

從 PE、個人電子產品開始，然後擴展到工業和企業，最近又擴展到汽車。但所有這些現在都已得到糾正，第二季對我們的業務來說是一個良好的季度。我相信我們現在正在滿足最終需求，這意味著客戶已經停止管理他們的庫存。

Now in terms of the competition in China, I don't think that's -- I mean, we've been very vocal about it. This is first not new, that competition has intensified over the past several years. And I think it's growing stronger. I think it's a mistake for us to think that these guys are only doing simple parts. These are very ambitious, highly educated competitors.

現在就中國的競爭而言，我認為我們對此一直非常直言不諱。這首先並不新鮮，過去幾年競爭加劇。我認為它正在變得越來越強大。我認為我們認為這些人只做簡單的部分是錯的。這些都是雄心勃勃、受過高等教育的競爭對手。

And our job here in TI, and that's what I tried to teach the team is to compete. And I will tell you that, yes, the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins. So we are going to continue to do that. Our goal objective is to continue and gain market share in China.

我們在 TI 的工作就是競爭，這就是我試圖教導團隊的。我會告訴你，是的，中國的市場競爭更激烈，但我們可以競爭，我們可以以非常有吸引力的利潤贏得業務。所以我們將繼續這樣做。我們的目標是繼續擴大在中國的市佔率。

Yes. Vivek, I'd just add one thing, Haviv, the growth in China that we saw was strong across all the markets, including automotive and industrial there. So I think that's an important point.

是的。 Vivek，哈維夫，我只想補充一件事，我們看到中國所有市場的成長都很強勁，包括那裡的汽車和工業市場。所以我認為這是很重要的一點。

So Vivek, you have a follow-up?

那麼維韋克，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, thank you Dave. So I know for Q3, you're not giving specific end market commentary. But just from an industry perspective, how would you describe the supply-demand situation in industrial and automotive semis, just because we see such a broad range of data points. Do you think we are past the worst in terms of inventory adjustment and supply issues for those two end markets? And if you could describe the situation in those two markets separately, that will be really, really helpful? Thank you.

是的，謝謝戴夫。所以我知道對於第三季度，您沒有給出具體的終端市場評論。但僅從行業角度來看，您會如何描述工業和汽車半導體的供需狀況，因為我們看到瞭如此廣泛的數據點。您認為這兩個終端市場的庫存調整和供應問題是否已經度過了最糟糕的時期？如果你能分別描述這兩個市場的情況，那會真的非常有幫助嗎？謝謝。

Dave, I'll let you take this one.

戴夫，我讓你拿走這個。

Okay. Yes. I think what we can see, Vivek, of course, we don't get any data fees on customer inventory. We don't get any data feeds on customer shipments, but we can look into things like the order patterns, we can look at fees that we get in consignment, we can see what's happening with our inventories and our position. So as we've talked about, cancellations, as an example, as a measure, have continued to come down, our lead times, I described is very stable.

好的。是的。我認為我們可以看到，Vivek，當然，我們不會從客戶庫存中收取任何數據費用。我們沒有獲得任何有關客戶發貨的數據，但我們可以研究訂單模式等信息，我們可以查看寄售費用，我們可以了解庫存和倉位的情況。正如我們所討論的，作為一個例子，作為一項措施，取消數量持續下降，我所描述的我們的交貨時間非常穩定。

We've got immediate availability of almost all of our products, so that does drive lower visibility with backlog because customers can get product when they need it. And we do believe that some markets, PE bottomed back in first quarter of '23, and it's been more seasonal since then. We've seen some of the other markets that, as we've shared earlier, are beginning to grow, so there's likely a bottom forming within some of those markets.

我們幾乎所有產品都可以立即供貨，因此這確實降低了積壓的可見性，因為客戶可以在需要時獲得產品。我們確實相信，在某些市場，PE 在 23 年第一季觸底，從那時起它就更具季節性。正如我們之前分享的那樣，我們已經看到其他一些市場正在開始成長，因此其中一些市場可能正在形成底部。

We've got industrial and automotive that have continued to decline. Now I'd say within industrial, I mentioned earlier, some of the sectors are forming a bottom. Others are continuing to decline. In Automotive, where we've got three quarters behind us, right? So that's how, as we look into where we are positioned today, but we don't have a strong signal that can tell us exactly to be able to answer the question that you asked.

工業和汽車產業持續下滑。現在我想說，在工業領域，我之前提到過，有些產業正在形成底部。其他人則繼續下降。在汽車領域，我們落後了四分之三，對吧？這就是為什麼，當我們研究我們今天所處的位置時，我們沒有一個強烈的信號可以準確地告訴我們能夠回答您提出的問題。

Yes. The only one comment I will add Vivek in terms of the difference. So automotive, so far at least just year-to-date is down mid-single digits, and that is off of a very good 2023 for us, right? We grew about 17% in 2023. And I think it's just helped by the strong secular content growth that we see in automotive. And this is across both combustion engines, or ICE and EVs. So that's maybe the slight difference I see between these two markets.

是的。我唯一要添加的一條評論是關於差異的 Vivek。因此，到目前為止，汽車行業至少今年以來的銷量下降了個位數，這對我們來說是一個非常好的 2023 年，對嗎？ 2023 年我們的成長率約為 17%。這適用於內燃機、內燃機和電動車。這可能就是我認為這兩個市場之間的細微差別。

Thank you Vivek. We'll go to the next caller.

謝謝維韋克。我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

羅斯·西莫爾，德意志銀行。

Hey, guys, thanks for letting me ask a question. Haviv, just great to have you on the call. So I'll ask one for you and maybe Rafael would chime in as well. You guys have given at least, Rafael in the past some mid-quarter updates or earnings call updates on CapEx and depreciation versus your pre-existing plan. So are you still planning to spend $5 billion a year? And does the depreciation ranges, Rafael, you gave before still apply, or are we going to have some more flexibility on those metrics going forward?

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你讓我問問題。哈維夫，很高興您能來電。所以我會幫你要一個，也許拉斐爾也會插話。拉斐爾，你們至少在過去提供了一些有關資本支出和折舊與現有計劃的季度中期更新或收益電話更新。那你還打算每年花費50億美元嗎？拉斐爾，您之前給出的折舊範圍是否仍然適用，或者我們未來在這些指標上是否會有更大的靈活性？

Okay. I'll start and Rafael, maybe you can provide some more color. So first, again, our strategy has not changed and it continues to serve us well, as I said before, the secular growth in industrial and automotive and our position, our market position, and our product portfolio position, gives us the confidence that there is a higher opportunity over there.

好的。我會開始，拉斐爾，也許你可以提供更多的顏色。因此，首先，我們的策略沒有改變，並且繼續為我們提供良好的服務，正如我之前所說，工業和汽車領域的長期成長以及我們的地位、我們的市場地位和我們的產品組合地位，使我們有信心那裡有更高的機會。

On top of it, as we said earlier, customers do want and value geopolitically dependable capacity. So we are pleased with our progress. Our CapEx strategy provides us both with capacity for growth and flexibility. And at the end of the day, CapEx supports revenue growth, and need to be prepared for different scenarios.

最重要的是，正如我們之前所說，客戶確實想要並重視地緣政治上可靠的容量。因此，我們對我們的進展感到滿意。我們的資本支出策略為我們提供了成長能力和靈活性。歸根結底，資本支出支持收入成長，需要為不同的場景做好準備。

Now, we always continue to evaluate our plans and investments based on what we see on the demand environment, the dynamics, the growth opportunities in the market. And to talk more about it, as I said in my prepared remarks, we are going to have our off-cycle capital management call in a month, in four weeks. It's just an opportunity to share just additional insight.

現在，我們始終根據我們對市場需求環境、動態和成長機會的看法，繼續評估我們的計劃和投資。更詳細地說，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們將在一個月內、四週內召開非週期資本管理電話會議。這只是一個分享額外見解的機會。

So we'll go through our investment plan with more granularity on what exactly we are doing per factory, and then we'll provide a framework of revenue scenarios and what would free cash flow per share and CapEx do versus each and every scenario. And regarding depreciation, Rafael, I don't know if you want to add anything?

因此，我們將更詳細地審查我們的投資計劃，了解我們每個工廠到底在做什麼，然後我們將提供一個收入情境框架，以及每股自由現金流和資本支出相對於每種情境的作用。關於折舊，拉斐爾，我不知道你是否想補充什麼？

Yes. So I'll just comment on depreciation. Ross, I'm going to narrow that depreciation range a little bit, both for '24 and '25. So for 2024, we now expect depreciation to be between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion. And for 2025, we now expect depreciation to be about $2 billion to $2.3 billion.

是的。所以我只評論一下折舊。羅斯，我將稍微縮小 24 年和 25 年的折舊範圍。因此，我們現在預計 2024 年折舊將在 15 億美元至 16 億美元之間。到 2025 年，我們現在預計折舊約為 20 億至 23 億美元。

Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

羅斯，你有後續嗎？

I do and thanks for all those details, Haviv and Rafael. So one for you, Rafael, if I heard you right on the gross margin rising in the second quarter, you mentioned that loadings increased. I thought that they were going to decrease to burn some inventory now that you have that at kind of the $4 billion target. So did something change there? And what's the expectations for utilization going forward?

我願意並感謝所有這些細節，哈維夫和拉斐爾。拉斐爾，如果我沒聽錯，關於第二季毛利率上升的問題，你提到了裝載量增加。我認為既然你已經達到了 40 億美元的目標，他們就會減少燃燒一些庫存。那麼那裡發生了什麼變化嗎？未來的利用率預期如何？

Yes, no, so the loadings came in about as expected, but let me just tell you more about it. Second quarter loadings were up versus first quarter. And as you saw, we're essentially flat on inventory. So essentially, the ins and outs were pretty much offsetting.

是的，不，所以負載量與預期差不多，但讓我告訴你更多相關資訊。第二季的裝載量較第一季增加。正如您所看到的，我們的庫存基本上持平。所以本質上，來龍去脈幾乎是互相抵消的。

When it comes to third quarter, we expect utilization or factory loadings to be flat to slightly up. And in our base case for the EPS guidance that we have, that's what we have in there. But of course, we have time during the quarter to adjust those load is depending on what we expect for fourth quarter.

談到第三季度，我們預計利用率或工廠負載將持平或略有上升。在我們現有的 EPS 指導的基本案例中，這就是我們所擁有的。但當然，我們本季有時間調整這些負載，這取決於我們對第四季的預期。

On GPM specifically for third quarter, I would in that base case at the midpoint of our guidance, I would expect GPM percentage to be up versus second quarter.

具體到第三季的毛利率，在我們指導的中點的基本情況下，我預計毛利率百分比將比第二季有所上升。

Thank you guys.

感謝你們。

Thank you, Ross. We'll take the next caller please.

謝謝你，羅斯。我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Chris Danely, Citibank.

克里斯·丹尼利，花旗銀行。

Just a follow-up on Ross' question in terms of gross margin. So depreciation is going up like $100 million roughly per quarter for next year. But if utilization rates keep going up, i.e., if nothing gets any worse, do you think is it possible that your gross margins are bottoming now? Or is there anything else that could drive them lower or maybe provide a tailwind? Just give us maybe the mechanics around it for the next several quarters?

只是羅斯關於毛利率問題的後續。因此，明年的折舊率大約每季增加 1 億美元。但如果利用率持續上升，即如果情況沒有變得更糟，您認為您的毛利率現在有可能觸底嗎？或者還有什麼其他因素可以推動它們走低或提供順風車？請告訴我們未來幾季的相關機制？

Sure. Sure. I'll be happy. And well, at the end of the day, yes, it is possible. That is the case. It's all going to depend on revenue, of course. So the main driver is revenue. So in addition to revenue as we bring more executing on our strategy to load more 300-millimeter wafers and bringing more external loadings internal the fall-through excluding depreciation, will likely turn more in the range of 75% to 85% on a year-on-year basis.

當然。當然。我會開心。好吧，歸根結底，是的，這是可能的。情況就是如此。當然，這一切都取決於收入。所以主要驅動力是收入。因此，除了收入之外，隨著我們更多地執行我們的策略，裝載更多300 毫米晶圓，並在不計折舊的情況下增加外部裝載量，收入可能會在一年內增長75%至85%。

Now of course, any one quarter, even any one year, you may have puts and takes that utilization or factory loadings is one of those that sometimes it goes against you, sometimes it goes in favor. But in general, expect that fall through on 75% to 85%, not counting depreciation.

當然，現在，任何一個季度，甚至任何一年，你都可能有看跌期權和期權，利用率或工廠負荷是有時對你不利、有時對你有利的因素之一。但總體而言，不包括折舊，預計跌幅為 75% 至 85%。

So, you do the math, whatever revenue assumptions you want to put over the next several quarters or years, do that fall throug,h and you can very easily model where -- and I just gave you depreciation, right? So you can then model what gross margins can do over the next several years.

因此，你進行數學計算，無論你想在接下來的幾個季度或幾年中做出什麼收入假設，只要做到這一點，你就可以很容易地對其中進行建模- 我剛剛給了你折舊，對吧？這樣您就可以對未來幾年的毛利率進行建模。

Great. Thanks for the additional bread crumbs. They're very useful. My follow-up is just on bookings. I think last quarter, you said that bookings were increasing every month. Is that still true? And do you think that for the industrial automotive space were at least getting close to the bottom there? Or do you feel any better about either of those end markets on a relative basis?

偉大的。謝謝你額外的麵包屑。它們非常有用。我的後續行動只是預訂。我想上個季度，您說過預訂量每個月都在增加。這仍然是真的嗎？您是否認為工業汽車領域至少已接近底部？或者相對而言您對這兩個終端市場感覺更好嗎？

Yes. So again, as you look at those things, revenue did increase as well as orders throughout the quarter, which is very typical that we would see in the second quarter. And certainly, as we've got growth at the midpoint, that would not be unexpected. Again, those other sides of lead times really on all of our products, having immediate availability and stable lead times, cancellations continuing to decline.

是的。所以，當你再看看這些事情時，整個季度的收入和訂單確實有所增加，這是我們在第二季度看到的非常典型的情況。當然，由於我們的成長處於中點，這並不令人意外。同樣，交貨時間的其他方面確實適用於我們所有的產品，具有即時可用性和穩定的交貨時間，取消量持續下降。

All those things, I think, point to supply and demand becoming more in balance and that availability. So -- and there is a second part of your question, Chris, that I'm not addressing, I'm not sure what it was. Could you just repeat it for me?

我認為，所有這些都表明供需變得更加平衡以及可用性。所以——克里斯，你問題的第二部分我沒有解決，我不確定它是什麼。你能為我重複一遍嗎？

Yes, it was just, our bookings are still increasing month-over-month. And then between the auto or the industrial end market, do you feel any better or worse about either of those?

是的，只是，我們的預訂量仍在逐月增加。那麼在汽車和工業終端市場之間，您對其中任何一個感覺更好還是更差？

Well, yes, again, I think that we've got half of the sectors that, again, we can see forming a bottom inside of industrial. Overall, it's been elongated, but if you look at it sector by sector, it's probably a better view overall. And in auto, this is our third quarter of decline. We're down about 13% from where the revenue peaked. It's a pretty shallow decline compared to how the other markets had behaved so far. So that's what we see.

嗯，是的，我認為我們有一半的行業可以再次看到工業內部形成底部。總體而言，它被拉長了，但如果你逐個部門地查看它，整體上可能會更好。在汽車領域，這是我們第三季的下滑。我們的收入較高峰下降了約 13%。與其他市場迄今為止的表現相比，這是一個相當小的跌幅。這就是我們所看到的。

So thank you, Chris.

所以謝謝你，克里斯。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you so much for taking the question. Haviv, maybe one for you on CapEx and how you're thinking about long-term revenue growth. You've always had the slide in your capital management call deck where you show revenue supported. I think you have for '26, you had $30 billion; for 2030, you had $45 billion. I know you're constantly evaluating your plans and you talked about presenting various scenarios on the August call. But I'm curious, is the $30 billion for '26 and $45 billion for 2030, are those still kind of the base case scenarios for you, or has there been any change post conversations with customers?

嗨，下午好。非常感謝您提出這個問題。 Haviv，也許適合您談談資本支出以及您如何看待長期收入成長。您的資本管理呼叫平台中始終有一張投影片，用於顯示支援的收入。我認為 26 年你有 300 億美元；到 2030 年，你將擁有 450 億美元。我知道您一直在評估您的計劃，並且您談到了在八月的電話會議上展示各種場景。但我很好奇，26 年的 300 億美元和 2030 年的 450 億美元是否仍然是您的基本情景，或者與客戶對話後是否有任何變化？

So Toshiya, first, I do want to leave something for August. So I think it's going to be just a better environment to go provide this information. We'll also provide supporting materials and we'll update the presentation where you'll see as I said, the different scenarios and how we see them.

Toshiya，首先，我確實想給 August 留下一些東西。所以我認為提供這些資訊將會是一個更好的環境。我們還將提供支援材料，我們將更新演示文稿，正如我所說，您將看到不同的場景以及我們如何看待它們。

And to me, step-by-step, right now, when I think about how we establish our CapEx plan, we need to think about what the next peak wants to do. We'll discuss that. We'll discuss different scenarios of revenue leading to the next peak, and what will CapEx do accordingly.

對我來說，一步一步地，現在，當我考慮如何制定我們的資本支出計劃時，我們需要考慮下一個高峰想要做什麼。我們會討論這個。我們將討論導致下一個高峰的不同收入情景，以及相應的資本支出將如何做。

And as a result, what free cash flow per share will be. Again, I don't want to give the whole pitch right now, but I think it's going to be important for investors to join and hear our latest update.

結果，每股自由現金流將是多少。再說一遍，我現在不想透露全部內容，但我認為投資者加入並聽到我們的最新動態非常重要。

Understood, Haviv. Just a question on embedded processing. Revenue was down sequentially and the year-over-year decline actually accelerated. Analog, we've seen some stabilization. So I'm just curious what you're seeing in the embedded processing side. Is this purely volume pressure, or is there a pricing or competitive component here as well? I think the operating margins for that business came in a little bit as well sequentially. So just curious, thank you.

明白了，哈維夫。只是一個關於嵌入式處理的問題。收入環比下降，年減實際上加速。類似地，我們已經看到了一些穩定性。所以我只是好奇你在嵌入式處理方面看到了什麼。這純粹是銷售壓力，還是還有定價或競爭因素？我認為該業務的營業利潤率也連續出現了一些成長。所以只是好奇，謝謝。

Yes. Let me start first on a high level. The embedded business, so when I look at the underneath beyond the numbers, it's getting stronger. Our product portfolio is improving, and when I look at this decade, just the opportunity for that business to be a major contributor for TI's growth of free cash flow per share is very high. So I'm very encouraged by the progress of the business.

是的。讓我先從高層次開始。嵌入式業務，所以當我看到數字之外的底層時，它變得越來越強大。我們的產品組合正在不斷改進，當我回顧這十年時，該業務成為 TI 每股自由現金流成長主要貢獻者的機會非常大。因此，我對業務的進展感到非常鼓舞。

Now regarding the cycle first embedded as a little bit of a different structure compared to analog, it's mainly composed of industrial and automotive. So it has less exposure into personal electronics, enterprise or communication equipment. And these two markets kind of stick later, right? So if you look at the embedded business versus analog, it's picked a year after kind of middle 2023 versus the middle of '22 for the analog business.

現在，首先將嵌入的周期視為與模擬相比結構略有不同的周期，它主要由工業和汽車組成。因此，它較少涉足個人電子、企業或通訊設備。這兩個市場後來會持續下去，對吧？因此，如果你比較嵌入式業務與模擬業務，你會發現模擬業務是在 2023 年中期之後的一年，而不是 22 年中期。

In addition to that, the embedded business today, although as Rafael mentioned, it's being changed was mainly supported from foundry wafers during the up cycle, and we felt more limitation over there compared to our internal supply capacity.

除此之外，今天的嵌入式業務，儘管正如拉斐爾所提到的，它的變化主要是在上升週期中由代工晶圓支撐的，與我們內部的供應能力相比，我們感覺到那裡的限制更多。

So now when these supply issues are resolved, we are seeing customers just adjusting their inventory. That's what I believe is happening and therefore, embedded is thing that suffer a correction. But again, when I look at it from the top, embedded is strengthening, and I think will continue to serve us very well moving forward.

因此，現在當這些供應問題解決後，我們看到客戶只是調整他們的庫存。我相信這就是正在發生的事情，因此，嵌入式是需要修正的東西。但同樣，當我從頂部看時，嵌入式正在加強，我認為它將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

Let me just add on the operating profit question or angle that you had. Just as a reminder, as Haviv said, traditional embedded has relied on external wafers, but we now have -- we're bringing them in, and we have the Lehi factory is disproportionately will serve embedded. And therefore, embedded is taking disproportionate amount of the fixed cost charges there. But just like that is put right now, it will be a tailwind. It's a headwind now, it will be a tailwind in the future, as we qualify more and more parts, embedded parts as well as analog at that Lehi factory.

讓我補充一下您提出的營業利潤問題或角度。提醒一下，正如 Haviv 所說，傳統嵌入式一直依賴外部晶圓，但我們現在已經將它們引入，我們的 Lehi 工廠將不成比例地為嵌入式提供服務。因此，嵌入技術佔據了不成比例的固定成本費用。但就像現在所說的那樣，這將是一種順風。現在是逆風，未來也將是順風，因為我們在 Lehi 工廠鑑定了越來越多的零件、嵌入式零件以及模擬零件。

Sure, thank you so much.

當然，非常感謝你。

Have a great day. Next caller please.

祝你有美好的一天。請下一位來電者。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Yeah. Thank you for taking my question and great to have you on the call, Haviv. Maybe to follow up on the embedded question, right, because this business grew 3% last year versus your analog business, which is down 15%.

是的。感謝您回答我的問題，很高興您接聽電話，哈維夫。也許是為了跟進嵌入的問題，對吧，因為去年這項業務成長了 3%，而模擬業務則下降了 15%。

Yes, year-to-date, it's down about as much as your peers or I would argue slightly better. You've articulated the positive strategy changes previously like more catalog, broad market focus. So bottom line, again, over the past few years, it seems like you've made good improvements in this business.

是的，今年迄今為止，它的下降幅度與你的同行一樣多，或者我認為會稍微好一點。您之前已經闡明了積極的策略變化，例如更多的產品目錄、更廣泛的市場關注。因此，最重要的是，在過去幾年中，您似乎在這項業務上取得了良好的進步。

So as the team moves embedded more to internal manufacturing, combined with the strategy shift. Maybe Haviv, can you just comment on the design win momentum? What areas are you particularly doing well in, and I'm not sure Rafael, how should we think about the improvement in embedded margins as you move what was once mostly outsourced to internal manufacturing?

因此，隨著團隊更多地嵌入內部製造，並結合策略轉變。也許哈維夫（Haviv），您能評論一下設計獲勝的勢頭嗎？你在哪些領域做得特別好，我不確定拉斐爾，當你將曾經主要外包給內部製造的東西轉移到內部製造時，我們應該如何考慮嵌入利潤的改善？

Yes. Let me start, and I'll let Rafael add some more color. But again, as you mentioned, the embedded business has gone through a change in the last four or five years, and [Annika] has done a great job to position the business, such that it benefits our competitive advantages.

是的。讓我開始吧，我會讓拉斐爾添加更多的色彩。但正如您所提到的，嵌入式業務在過去四、五年經歷了變化，[Annika] 在業務定位方面做得很好，這有利於我們的競爭優勢。

Think about manufacturing and technology, so shifting really from almost like 80% external to when done, maybe the opposite, 80% internal building a higher breadth of products, or not less concentration of revenue per socket and us expanding our product portfolio, utilizing the reach of our market channels.

考慮製造和技術，因此實際上從幾乎80% 的外部轉移到完成後（也許相反）80% 的內部構建了更廣泛的產品，或者不減少每個插槽的收入集中度，並且我們擴大了我們的產品組合，利用我們的市場通路的覆蓋範圍。

Think about the large sales team of TI, think about ti.com, the more catalog is the product, the better fit to our strategy. So in that sense, that is moving well. In terms of design in momentum, again, it's mainly an industrial and automotive business. So very high visibility on the automotive side.

想想 TI 龐大的銷售團隊，想想 ti.com，產品目錄越多，就越適合我們的策略。所以從這個意義上來說，進展順利。就設計動力而言，它主要是工業和汽車業務。因此在汽車方面的可見度非常高。

But as you also know, it takes time. So I'm encouraged with the designing momentum, our funnel increased tremendously when I compare it to the analog side because every funnel of every supplier grows, but we've seen a disproportional growth of our design in momentum for embedded versus previous year and also versus analog just in terms of the rates.

但正如您所知，這需要時間。因此，我對設計勢頭感到鼓舞，當我將其與模擬方面進行比較時，我們的漏斗大大增加，因為每個供應商的每個漏斗都在增長，但我們看到嵌入式設計的勢頭與前一年相比出現了不成比例的增長，而且與模擬相比，僅就速率而言。

And I will give some examples. We see good momentum in real-time control. Think about EVs, onboard chargers, think about traction inverters. Very good momentum in connectivity, automotive and beyond. Think about car entries, tire pressure monitoring, and other body related opportunities in the automotive market.

我會舉一些例子。我們看到即時控制的良好動力。想想電動車、車用充電器、牽引逆變器。在互聯、汽車等領域發展勢頭非常好。想想汽車市場中的汽車入門、輪胎壓力監測和其他與車身相關的機會。

I can continue with kind of more application-specific products like our radar systems. We have great position and growing position in radar, winning a lot of new business both with the Tier 1s and the OEMs. This is from imaging radar for the front to the corner radar to even parking assist and also in-cabin sensing, that radar is taking a bigger and bigger part in the automotive market.

我可以繼續開發更多特定於應用的產品，例如我們的雷達系統。我們在雷達領域擁有巨大的地位，並且地位不斷增長，贏得了一級供應商和原始設備製造商的大量新業務。從前部成像雷達到角雷達，甚至停車輔助和車內感測，雷達在汽車市場中佔據越來越大的份額。

And many other examples on the industrial side, here, the number of end equipment is really vast, hundreds of end equipments. But -- this is where our catalog MCUs that we are really reviving the presence of TI and building a new portfolio based on our MSP family, is doing very well in winning new business across the board, across the market, utilizing our channel advantage.

還有很多工業方面的例子，這裡的終端設備數量確實非常龐大，有數百個終端設備。但是，這就是我們真正恢復 TI 存在並基於我們的 MSP 系列建立新產品組合的 MCU 目錄，利用我們的通路優勢，在整個市場贏得新業務方面表現出色。

So I can go on and on here. But again, just the evidence of my excitement of what this business can do for us in the second half of this decade. Rafael?

所以我可以在這裡繼續說下去。但這再次證明了我對這項業務在本世紀後半葉能為我們做的事情感到興奮。拉斐爾？

Yes, I'll just add on your question on fall-throughs for embedded. Of course, we don't give guidance for the segments. So the 75% to 85% gross margin fall-through ex depreciation that I talked about earlier, applies to both. Outside of -- if we didn't have Lehi, and I'll address that in a second, but we didn't have that, I would say, generally, analog would be at the higher end of that range and better will be at the lower end. But for the next year or two or three, because Lehi, all those fixed costs are already there, including people.

是的，我將補充您關於嵌入式失敗的問題。當然，我們不會為細分市場提供指導。因此，我之前談到的 75% 至 85% 的毛利率（扣除折舊後的下降）對兩者都適用。如果我們沒有 Lehi，我會立即解決這個問題，但我們沒有，我想說，一般來說，模擬會處於該範圍的高端，更好的是在下端。但在接下來的一兩年或三年裡，因為李海，所有這些固定成本都已經存在，包括人員成本。

We're going to have some nice tailwind and all of a good portion of that will go to rmbedded. But over the longer time frame, 75% to 85% ex-depreciation is a good guide to us.

我們將獲得一些不錯的順風，其中很大一部分將用於 rmbedded。但從較長的時間範圍來看，75% 到 85% 的除舊率對我們來說是一個很好的指導。

Do you have a follow-on, Harlan?

哈倫，你還有後續嗎？

Yes. In terms of channel reach, right, we haven't heard you guys talk about ti.com in quite some time. I think the last data point we got was it about $2 billion in sales in calendar '22 and it sort of has this additional benefit from a business planning perspective, being a really good sort of leading indicator of demand inflection. As you sort of potentially pass the bottom of sort of the current cycle here, Wondering if there's been any notable movement or trends in ti.com? And maybe from a longer-term perspective, like what initiatives has the team put in place to sort of further improve the customer pull to ti.com from a mid- to longer-term perspective?

是的。就通路覆蓋率而言，我們已經有一段時間沒有聽到你們談論 ti.com 了。我認為我們得到的最後一個數據點是 22 年曆中約 20 億美元的銷售額，從業務規劃的角度來看，它具有額外的好處，是一種非常好的需求拐點領先指標。當您可能即將度過當前週期的底部時，想知道 ti.com 是否有任何顯著的變化或趨勢？也許從中長期角度來看，團隊採取了哪些措施來進一步提高 ti.com 的顧客吸引力？

Yes. Let me start more in the mid to longer term, and I'll let Dave add some more color on how it looks versus the cycle. So in terms of the investments in ti.com, yes, they are continuing. These are very strategic and important investment for us. We believe there is a huge opportunity to digitize what we call the last mile, or that interface between us and the customers.

是的。讓我從中長期角度開始更多的工作，我會讓戴夫為它與週期的外觀添加更多的色彩。因此，就 ti.com 的投資而言，是的，他們仍在繼續。這些對我們來說都是非常具有戰略意義和重要的投資。我們相信，有一個巨大的機會將我們所說的最後一英里或我們與客戶之間的介面數位化。

There are many, many customers, still a long tail of customers, that we can't see today. But as they move to ti.com, we can supply them with more information. We can even provide opportunity to place backlog electronically, directly to TI.

有很多很多的客戶，仍然是一條長長的客戶尾巴，我們今天看不到。但當他們轉向 ti.com 時，我們可以為他們提供更多資訊。我們甚至可以提供直接以電子方式向 TI 提交待辦事項的機會。

And in that sense, the important for us is to just know our customers better understand the end equipment and provide the relevant product portfolio to serve their growth and win market share, right? So that data is, to us, very, very important and the direct connectivity with the customer is important.

從這個意義上說，對我們來說重要的是讓我們的客戶更好地了解終端設備並提供相關的產品組合來服務他們的成長並贏得市場份額，對吧？因此，數據對我們來說非常非常重要，與客戶的直接聯繫也很重要。

To do just that, we are investing in IT systems. We are investing in warehouses. So if you will, logistics, to serve these customers just in time as they need it. And that is part of the way customers would opt to TI, and just connect directly to us.

為此，我們正在投資 IT 系統。我們正在投資倉庫。因此，如果您願意，物流可以在客戶需要時及時為他們提供服務。這是客戶選擇 TI 的方式之一，直接與我們聯絡。

Now in terms of the short term, Dave, maybe you can talk a little bit about what we're seeing there through the cycle?

現在就短期而言，戴夫，也許你可以談談我們在整個週期中看到的情況？

Yes. And as we would have expected orders that are placed through ti.com are down significantly from its peak, just I think just telling of where we are with availability of product. But the great thing with ti.com is customers connect through APIs and put their planning systems on that. When they do have a shortage, they can look into our inventory, they can see it -- some have even automated that process and have products shipped in many cases, the same day. So we think the long-term strategic value of ti.com is much higher than the transactions that will cross it here in the short term.

是的。正如我們預期的那樣，透過 ti.com 下的訂單會比高峰大幅下降，我想這只是說明了我們的產品可用性情況。但 ti.com 的偉大之處在於客戶透過 API 進行連接，並將他們的規劃系統置於其上。當他們確實出現短缺時，他們可以查看我們的庫存，他們可以看到它——有些人甚至已經實現了流程的自動化，並且在許多情況下可以在同一天發貨。因此，我們認為 ti.com 的長期策略價值遠高於短期內與之交叉的交易。

So thank you Harlan, we will go to the next caller, please.

謝謝哈倫，我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thank you. I wonder just as you kind of think about this longer-term strategy, you've got well over 200 days of inventory, you have relatively low factory utilization. Like do you think this means we won't have shortages down the road that people can look at the capacity that you have, the inventory that you have, and they won't have the need to accumulate inventory? Is that part of the thinking? Or do you think it's just inevitable that we'll get back to that at some point?

偉大的。謝謝。我想知道，正當您考慮這項長期策略時，您的庫存已超過 200 天，但工廠利用率卻相對較低。你認為這是否意味著我們將來不會短缺，人們可以查看你擁有的產能、你擁有的庫存，他們不需要累積庫存？這是想法的一部分嗎？或者你認為我們不可避免地會在某個時候回到這個話題？

Again, the investment first in capacity ahead of the demand and then in inventory is done to really improve customer service, right? And we believe it's important to keep that not only now when it's kind of easy and we have a market cycle that you can call it at a low point.

同樣，首先在​​需求之前對產能進行投資，然後對庫存進行投資，才能真正改善客戶服務，對嗎？我們認為，保持這一點很重要，不僅是現在，因為這很容易，而且我們有一個可以稱之為低點的市場週期。

The test for our company would be at the next up cycle, okay, not only an up cycle, you can model Joe any upcycle that you want, but we want to be supporting our customers at the highest level even if the cycle looks like a very steep one.

我們公司的測試將在下一個升級週期進行，好吧，不僅僅是一個升級週期，您可以為Joe 建模任何您想要的升級週期，但我們希望為我們的客戶提供最高級別的支持，即使該週期看起來像是非常陡峭的一個。

And we model, for example, the COVID cycle is a similar one, and that's what drives our investments. I think it's very, very important to serve your customers ahead of the competition at times like that because that's the opportunity to gain share, and we are going to be prepared for that opportunity. Having said that, all that is done in a very thoughtful way.

例如，我們對新冠病毒週期進行了建模，這是一個類似的周期，這就是推動我們投資的動力。我認為在這樣的時刻為您的客戶提供領先於競爭對手的服務非常非常重要，因為這是獲得份額的機會，我們將為這個機會做好準備。話雖如此，所有這一切都是以非常深思熟慮的方式完成的。

Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory. And I'm pleased with the progress we have made, but the test will come, and I'm sure it will come at the next up cycle. I don't know if you want to add anything, Dave.

庫存正在正確的地方建立，我們擁有這種多樣性和長期的地位，這樣我們就不會面臨庫存報廢的風險。我對我們所取得的進展感到滿意，但測試將會到來，我確信它將在下一個升級週期到來。我不知道你是否想補充什麼，戴夫。

I think that's good. Joe, do you have a followup?

我認為這很好。喬，你有後續嗎？

Yes. I mean just to follow up on that, to the extent that your competition is doing things more the way they traditionally have, and probably will see boom bust cycles, what happens in the next upturn, if they can't get parts from three of your competitors? Is there a way you can keep them from accumulating inventory of TI components, even though they shouldn't need to. I mean that seems like it's part of kind of the industry behavior in the past, just how focused are you on trying to dampen that?

是的。我的意思是只是跟進這一點，在某種程度上，你的競爭對手正在以他們傳統的方式做事，並且可能會看到繁榮蕭條週期，如果他們無法從三家公司獲得零件，那麼下一次經濟好轉時會發生什麼事你的競爭對手？有沒有辦法阻止他們累積 TI 組件的庫存，即使他們不需要這樣做。我的意思是，這似乎是過去產業行為的一部分，你有多專注於試圖抑制這種行為？

Again, I think our capacity and the inventory level that we have built are such that we can to provide good or very high customer service levels, right? So our intention is to maintain lead times through the cycle. It depends what cycle you throw at us. There is always going to be that one cycle or that steep cycle that maybe we won't be able to do it.

再說一遍，我認為我們的能力和庫存水平足以讓我們提供良好或非常高的客戶服務水平，對吧？因此，我們的目的是在整個週期內保持交貨時間。這取決於您向我們提出的周期。總是會有一個週期或一個陡峭的週期，也許我們無法做到。

But we have modeled the company in such a way that in most demand situation, we would be able to maintain a good customer or high customer service levels through the cycle, which hopefully, will keep the lead time short in which I'm pretty sure will encourage customers not to hold inventory.

但我們對公司進行了建模，在大多數需求情況下，我們將能夠在整個週期內保持良好的客戶或高客戶服務水平，希望這將保持較短的交貨時間，我非常確定將鼓勵客戶不要持有庫存。

That has to be proven, but that's the way we want to prepare for the future.

這必須得到證明，但這就是我們想要為未來做好準備的方式。

And just to add one thing, I'd just say that I spent eight years in sales. Joe, ever once took a double order. And so trying to control customer behavior when things get short, people want to build more inventory, right? And so that's just the behavior that I think that will be in our industry for the foreseeable future, but we can gain share in those periods of time, and that's the advantage of having the capacity in place.

再補充一件事，我只想說我在銷售領域工作了八年。喬，曾經接受過雙重訂單。因此，當商品短缺時，為了控制客戶的行為，人們想要建立更多的庫存，對嗎？因此，我認為在可預見的未來，我們的產業將會出現這種行為，但我們可以在這些時期獲得份額，這就是擁有適當能力的優勢。

So that said, we'll go to the next and last caller, please.

也就是說，我們將接聽下一個也是最後一個來電者。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索，沃爾夫研究中心。

Yes, thanks. Good evening. The question is on your earlier comments on China. It sounds like that rebounded fairly robustly in the first quarter. Could you give some more color on what you were seeing within China? And then do you think -- do you feel that the Chinese customers are still burning through inventory? Are you still under shipping demand there?

對了謝謝。晚安.問題是關於你之前對中國的評論。聽起來第一季反彈相當強勁。能否詳細介紹一下您在中國看到的情況？然後您是否認為中國客戶仍在消耗庫存？你們那裡還有運輸需求嗎？

Yes, thanks for the question. First, I would say that in China, it's -- there is a very distinct signal that customers have worked down their inventories. And we've seen that spreading through time with the market. If you think about the synchronous behavior that we have described of the different markets, we saw the same in China. The personal electronics business peaked in China somewhere in 2021, enterprise and industrial, sometimes in '22 and then automotive picked sometime in '23.

是的，謝謝你的提問。首先，我想說，在中國，有一個非常明顯的訊號表明客戶已經減少了庫存。我們已經看到這種情況隨著時間的推移而隨著市場的發展而蔓延。如果您考慮我們所描述的不同市場的同步行為，我們在中國也看到了同樣的情況。中國的個人電子產品業務在 2021 年的某個時候達到頂峰，企業和工業產品有時在 22 年達到頂峰，然後汽車行業在 23 年的某個時間達到頂峰。

So you saw that peak spread over three years, which I think is the reason we saw such elongated decline of seven quarters in a row. And we went backwards to our history, and it's been one of the longest, if not the longest cycle we have seen. But I can see clearly that it's mainly played out.

所以你看到這個高峰跨越了三年，我認為這就是我們看到連續七個季度如此長期下降的原因。我們回顧我們的歷史，這是我們所見過的最長的周期之一，甚至是最長的周期之一。但我看得很清楚，主要是已經演完了。

Of course, you will always find pockets and a few sectors in the industrial market that are still going through that. But it's very clear that once you start to shift to end demand, you will see such behavior of, in our case, 20% sequential growth. And that momentum is being built across the markets. All markets did very well in China, growing between 15% to 20-something percent, okay?

當然，你總是會發現工業市場中的一些領域和一些行業仍在經歷這種情況。但很明顯，一旦你開始轉向終端需求，你就會看到這種行為，在我們的例子中，是 20% 的環比成長。這種勢頭正在整個市場中形成。中國的所有市場都表現得很好，成長率在 15% 到 20% 左右，好嗎？

So very robust, coherent, and that's like a recovery looks like. Now we haven't seen that across the other markets. I will even tell you that the areas like Europe and Japan are in an early phase. And hopefully, it doesn't take seven quarters per geography, but China was kind of the first into the up cycle, the beginning of COVID, the first one to correct on the down.

非常穩健、連貫，就像復甦的樣子。現在我們還沒有在其他市場看到這種情況。我甚至可以告訴你，歐洲、日本等地區還處於早期階段。希望每個地區不需要七個季度，但中國是第一個進入上升週期的國家，是新冠疫情的開始，也是第一個修正下滑的國家。

And now, to me, the first one kind of raising a very strong sequential growth with momentum. So that's the way I would summarize it without trying to imply that we'll see the same behavior in each and every other market.

現在，對我來說，第一種是帶來非常強勁的連續成長動能。這就是我總結的方式，而不是試圖暗示我們會在每個其他市場看到相同的行為。

Do you have a follow-up, Chris?

克里斯，你有後續行動嗎？

I do, thanks. And just a quick follow-up, and I'm sure this is another thing you'll address on the August call, but you narrowed the range for depreciation next year down a little bit. Last quarter, you talked about CapEx kind of being around this $5 million level per year. It was down sequentially in the second quarter. Is $5 billion still reasonable way of looking CapEx this year?

我願意，謝謝。只是一個快速的後續行動，我相信這是您將在八月的電話會議上解決的另一件事，但您將明年的折舊範圍縮小了一點。上個季度，您談到每年的資本支出約為 500 萬美元。第二季季減。 50 億美元仍然是今年資本支出的合理方式嗎？

Yes. There is no news here strategically, but Rafael, maybe you want to guide on CapEx?

是的。這裡沒有策略方面的消息，但是拉斐爾，也許你想指導一下資本支出？

No, this year, $5 billion, what you saw in second quarter is just little puts and takes on a quarterly basis, but for 2024, $5 billion of CapEx and the depreciation numbers I gave are reflective of that.

不，今年是50 億美元，你在第二季度看到的只是按季度計算的少量看跌期權和看跌期權，但對於2024 年，50 億美元的資本支出和我給出的折舊數字反映了這一點。

So let me wrap up with what we've said previously. At our core, we are engineers. Our technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objective, we'll continue to pursue our three ambitions.

讓我總結一下我們之前所說的內容。我們的核心是工程師。我們的技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終，我們的目標和衡量進度並為所有者創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。在我們努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三個目標。

First, we will act like owners, we will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we are personally proud to be proud of, and we would want as our neighbor. When we are successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit.

首先，我們將像所有者一樣行事，我們將擁有這家公司數十年。我們將在不斷變化的世界中適應並取得成功。我們將成為一家讓我們個人感到自豪的公司，我們希望成為我們的鄰居。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和所有者都會受益。

Thank you, and have a good evening.

謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

Thank you. And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束，大家可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。