德州儀器 (TXN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Dave Pahl, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer Haviv Ilan and our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

歡迎參加德州儀器 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起出席的還有我們的首席執行官哈維夫·伊蘭 (Haviv Ilan) 和首席財務官拉斐爾·利扎迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路直播，可透過我們的網站存取。此外，今天的電話會議正在錄音，可透過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially for management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能會導致 TI 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性聲明的通知，以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, he'll provide insight into second quarter revenue results, with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on capital management, as well as share the guidance for the third quarter of 2024. With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，Haviv 將簡要概述本季的情況。接下來，他將深入介紹第二季的營收結果，並詳細介紹我們的終端市場狀況。最後，拉斐爾將介紹財務績效、更新資本管理狀況，並分享 2024 年第三季的指引。說完這些，讓我把話題交給 Haviv。

Thanks, Dave. Let me also start by welcoming everyone to the call. I'm looking forward to joining our quarterly earnings calls moving forward and sharing more details about our business strategy with the investment community. It is an opportunity for me to directly share more information about our results and our strategic progress.

謝謝，戴夫。首先，我要歡迎大家來參加電話會議。我期待著參加我們的季度財報電話會議，並與投資界分享有關我們業務策略的更多細節。這是我直接分享更多有關我們的成果和策略進展的資訊的機會。

With that, I'll start with a quick overview of the second quarter. Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $3.8 billion, an increase of 4% sequentially and a decrease of 16% year over year. Analog revenue declined 11% year over year, and Embedded Processing declined 31%. Our "Other" segment declined 22% from the year-ago quarter.

首先，我將簡要概述第二季的情況。本季營收大致符合預期，為 38 億美元，季增 4%，年減 16%。模擬收入年減 11%，嵌入式處理收入下降 31%。我們的「其他」部門較去年同期下降了 22%。

Now I'll provide some insight into our second quarter revenue by end market. Our results continued to reflect the asynchronous behavior across our end markets that we've seen throughout this cycle. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance, as it is more informative at this time.

現在，我將按終端市場介紹我們第二季的收入。我們的結果繼續反映出我們在整個週期中看到的終端市場的異步行為。與上一季類似，我將專注於連續表現，因為此時它更具參考價值。

First, the industrial market was down low-single digits.

首先，工業市場下滑幅度為個位數低段。

The automotive market was down mid-single digits.

汽車市場下滑了中個位數。

Personal electronics grew mid-teens, with broad-based growth, while demonstrating continued improvement compared to its low point in the first quarter of 2023.

個人電子產品成長率達到中等水平，成長範圍廣泛，與 2023 年第一季的低點相比持續改善。

Next, communication equipment was up mid-single digits.

其次，通訊設備的銷售量上漲了中等個位數。

And finally, enterprise systems was up about 20%.

最後，企業系統上漲了約 20%。

Lastly, before I pass it on to Rafael, I'd like to share a few comments regarding our capacity investments. We and our customers remain pleased with our progress of the expansion of our 300mm manufacturing capacity. These investments reflect our confidence in the opportunity ahead, which remains high for several reasons. First, we have a high level of confidence in the secular growth of semiconductor content, particularly in industrial and automotive, where we have greater exposure and strong product positions. Second, geopolitically dependable low-cost 300mm capacity will be increasingly critical and valuable, and our investments enable us to support customer demand at scale.

最後，在將其轉交給拉斐爾之前，我想分享一些關於我們產能投資的評論。我們和我們的客戶對於我們 300 毫米製造能力擴張的進展感到滿意。這些投資反映了我們對未來機會的信心，由於多種原因，我們的信心依然強勁。首先，我們對半導體內容的長期成長充滿信心，特別是在工業和汽車領域，我們在這些領域擁有更大的曝光度和強大的產品地位。其次，地緣政治上可靠的低成本 300 毫米產能將變得越來越重要和有價值，我們的投資使我們能夠大規模支持客戶需求。

To share more details on our progress, which we believe is helpful for all of our shareholders to understand, I plan to hold an off-cycle capital management call with Rafael and Dave on August 20. During the call, I will provide more granularity on our capacity investments along with a framework of revenue and free cash flow per share scenarios.

為了分享更多關於我們進展的細節，我們相信這有助於所有股東了解，我計劃在 8 月 20 日與 Rafael 和 Dave 舉行非週期資本管理電話會議。在電話會議中，我將更詳細地介紹我們的產能投資以及收入和每股自由現金流情境的框架。

With that, let me turn it over to Rafael to review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

接下來，讓我將主題轉交給拉斐爾，來回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的展望。

Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone. As Haviv mentioned, second quarter revenue was $3.8 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.2 billion, or 58% of revenue. Sequentially, gross profit margin increased 60 basis points, primarily due to higher revenue as well as lower manufacturing unit costs due to increased factory loadings and more manufacturing internally, with more wafers on 300mm.

謝謝，Haviv，大家下午好。正如哈維夫所提到的，第二季的收入為 38 億美元。本季毛利為 22 億美元，佔營收的 58%。與上一季相比，毛利率增加了 60 個基點，主要由於收入增加以及製造單位成本降低（由於工廠負載增加和內部製造增加，300 毫米晶圓數量增加）。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $963 million, up 3% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion, or 23% of revenue.

本季營運費用為 9.63 億美元，較去年同期成長 3%，與預期大致相符。過去 12 個月，營業費用為 37 億美元，佔營收的 23%。

Operating profit was $1.2 billion in the quarter, or 33% of revenue, and was down 37% from the year ago quarter.

本季營業利潤為 12 億美元，佔營收的 33%，較去年同期下降 37%。

Net income in the second quarter was $1.1 billion, or $1.22 per share. Earnings per share included a 5-cent benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

第二季淨收入為 11 億美元，即每股 1.22 美元。每股收益包括我們原始指導中未包含的項目的 5 美分收益。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.6 billion in the quarter and $6.4 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.1 billion in the quarter and $5 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $1.5 billion. As a reminder, free cash flow includes benefits from the CHIPS Act investment tax credit, which was $312 million for second quarter.

現在，讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，從現金產生開始。本季經營現金流為 16 億美元，過去 12 個月經營現金流為 64 億美元。本季的資本支出為 11 億美元，過去 12 個月的資本支出為 50 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 15 億美元。提醒一下，自由現金流包括《CHIPS 法案》投資稅收抵免的收益，第二季為 3.12 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $71 million of our stock. In total, we returned $4.9 billion to our owners in the past 12 months.

本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息，並回購了價值 7,100 萬美元的股票。整體而言，在過去的 12 個月裡，我們向股東返還了 49 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter. In the quarter, we repaid $300 million of debt. Total debt outstanding is now $14 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.8%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第二季末，現金和短期投資為 97 億美元。本季度，我們償還了 3 億美元的債務。目前未償還債務總額為 140 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.8%。

Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.1 billion, up $23 million from the prior quarter, and days were 229, down 6 days sequentially.

季末庫存為 41 億美元，較上一季增加 2,300 萬美元，庫存天數為 229 天，較上一季減少 6 天。

For the third quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.94 billion to $4.26 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.24 to $1.48.

對於第三季度，我們預計 TI 營收將在 39.4 億美元至 42.6 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.24 美元至 1.48 美元之間。

We continue to expect our effective tax rate to be about 13%.

我們繼續預計我們的有效稅率為13％左右。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們持續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續實現每股自由現金流的成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we will provide you an opportunity for a follow-up. Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以開通問答線路了。為了讓盡可能多的人有機會提出問題，請將問題限制在一個問題上。我們回覆後，會提供您後續跟進的機會。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

瑞銀的提摩西·阿庫裡。

Thanks a lot. There were some comments from a geopolitical perspective. One of the candidates is talking about the China-Taiwan relationship, and I'm just asking how the geopolitical environment is sort of impacting your customers' buying decisions?

多謝。有一些從地緣政治角度的評論。其中一位候選人正在談論中國與台灣的關係，我想問一下地緣政治環境是如何影響你們的客戶的購買決策的？

I think you said last call that even some of your Chinese customers who are exporting product want geopolitically dependable capacity. I think you talked about that being kind of an increasingly big factor in autos. Can you talk about that, and is that beginning to drive some share gains for you?

我記得你上次說過，即使是一些出口產品的中國客戶也希望獲得地緣政治上可靠的產能。我想您說過這在汽車領域正成為一個越來越重要的因素。您能談談這一點嗎？

Thanks, Tim. I'll take that. It's Haviv. First, geopolitical dependable capacity is not a new thing for us. We have started to see these requests coming, I think, two or three years ago when tensions started to rise. But as we reflect on it, now three years in, it's obvious that there is more and more tension. Usually at the highest levels of our customers, I'm talking about leadership of CEO or chief purchasing officers, looking at their supply chain and making sure that they are going to be immune from whatever is thrown at them, part of it is geopolitical tension.

謝謝，蒂姆。我接受。是哈維夫。首先，地緣政治可靠能力對我們來說並不是什麼新鮮事。我認為，兩三年前當緊張局勢開始加劇時，我們就已經開始看到這些要求了。但三年過去了，當我們回顧起來，顯然緊張局勢越來越嚴重。通常，在我們客戶的最高層，我指的是執行長或首席採購官的領導，他們會審視他們的供應鏈，確保他們不會受到任何影響，其中一部分就是地緣政治緊張局勢。

And this is where TI is a great answer. We are a very unique supplier in the sense of we can provide capacity at scale, meaning the amount of wafers and the size of the capacity that we are building is very high. It is a very affordable capacity, us building our parts on 300mm wafers allows for a lower cost per chip, and then building them internally in our assembly and test houses also provides a very good low cost structure.

而這正是 TI 能夠給出完美答案的地方。我們是一家非常獨特的供應商，因為我們能夠提供大規模產能，這意味著我們正在建造的晶圓數量和產能規模非常大。這是非常經濟的產能，我們在 300 毫米晶圓上製造零件可以降低每個晶片的成本，然後在我們的組裝和測試工廠內部製造它們，也提供了非常好的低成本結構。

And last but not least, is this geopolitically dependable capacity, meaning our fabs are being built in the U.S., mainly in Texas and in Lehi, Utah. And we provide capacity that is at scale, affordable and dependable.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，這種地緣政治上可靠的產能意味著我們的晶圓廠正在美國建設，主要是在德克薩斯州和猶他州的萊希。我們提供的容量規模大、價格實惠、可靠。

And yes, every time there is some news out there, we are seeing more interest. We have seen that grown over the last several years. And in that sense, our discussions with our customers are providing us more opportunity to win positions in future platforms. I do believe we are taking a bigger share, and this is part of our confidence to continue with our investments to serve that opportunity moving forward.

是的，每次有新聞出現，我們都會看到更多興趣。我們看到它在過去幾年中有所增長。從這個意義上來說，我們與客戶的討論為我們在未來的平台上贏得地位提供了更多機會。我確實相信我們會佔據更大的份額，這也是我們有信心繼續投資以抓住未來機會的一部分。

Last but not least, you have touched China. Yes, you're right. If I take an example and just on the automotive side, our customers in China do care a lot about their export business. In that sense, our capacity is highly welcomed by them because we can compete at the market price with a very competitive offering, yet have that dependability to serve our customers, not only in China, but also outside of China for their export business.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，你觸動了中國。是的，你說得對。如果我舉一個例子，僅就汽車方面而言，我們在中國的客戶確實非常關心他們的出口業務。從這個意義上說，我們的能力受到他們的高度歡迎，因為我們可以在市場價格上以極具競爭力的價格進行競爭，同時還能可靠地為我們的客戶提供服務，不僅在中國，而且在中國以外的出口業務中。

Any follow-up Tim?

提姆，還有其他後續消息嗎？

I do, yes. Rafael, can you give us an update on CHIPS Act? Do you know how much you're getting yet, and can you kind of talk about that?

是的，我知道。拉斐爾，您能向我們介紹一下《CHIPS 法案》的最新進展嗎？你知道你現在得到了多少錢嗎？

Yes, sure, Tim. So on the grants, frankly, we're still going through the process. So we submitted the application, and we're just working through the details with the CHIPS program office. But given your question, let me comment also on the ITC, the investment tax credit. To date, we have accrued about $1.8 billion in total, that's on the 25% ITC. This benefit already started flowing through the income statement as lower depreciation. In addition, in second quarter we received, as I said in the prepared remarks, $312 million of cash benefits, and that is reflected in operating and free cash flow, and we expect to receive another $200 million in 3Q, for a total of $1 billion for 2024.

是的，當然，提姆。因此坦白說，關於補助金，我們仍在進行這項流程。因此我們提交了申請，目前正在與 CHIPS 計畫辦公室討論細節問題。但考慮到您的問題，讓我也對 ITC，即投資稅收抵免發表評論。到目前為止，我們已累計獲得約 18 億美元，這是 25% 的 ITC。此項收益已作為較低的折舊開始流入損益表。此外，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們在第二季度收到了 3.12 億美元的現金收益，這反映在經營現金流和自由現金流中，我們預計第三季度還將收到 2 億美元，2024 年總計 10 億美元。

Thank you, Tim. Next caller, please.

謝謝你，提姆。請下一位來電。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西‧拉斯岡 (Stacy Rasgon)。

Hey guys, thank you for taking my question. in Q2, it looked like the strength was primarily from personal electronics, given industrial and auto were down, and maybe calculators as well, I don't know, other was pretty strong. I was wondering if you could give us some color on where your expectations for the growth in Q3 sequentially is coming from. Is it still primarily at personal electronics? And I guess maybe, calculators or other stuff. How do I think about the end market trends as we go forward in the next quarter?

嘿夥計們，謝謝你們回答我的問題。在第二季度，看起來強勢主要來自個人電子產品，因為工業和汽車銷量下滑，也許計算器也一樣，我不知道，其他的都相當強勁。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對第三季環比成長的預期來自哪裡。它仍然主要用於個人電子產品嗎？我想也許是計算器或其他東西。我如何看待下一季的終端市場趨勢？

Thanks for the question, Stacy. I'll start, and I'll let Dave add some more color on Q2. So if I go back to the second quarter, yes, if you look at our results, industrial did decline at the low-single digits. Automotive continue to decline at mid-single digits. That was the third quarter in a row of that decline, although from a year-over-year perspective, it's still doing well, meaning less than 10% of a decline. It declined about 9% in Q2. Yes, there is strength in personal electronics, and I do see that market -- it went through the entire cycle. It troughed sometime in the first quarter of 2023, and we've seen that market strengthening. And again, it grew mid-teens sequentially, but close to 20% year over year. So there is definitely strength over there. And I would also say that on the enterprise market, again, a smaller revenue for us, but we are seeing a recovery over there, and I believe that inventory correction is behind us. Regarding the other business, it grew, thanks to our calculator business as you mentioned, but also our DLP business, which mainly serves the personal electronics market. And Dave, maybe you can add some more color on the sectors as we talk about Q2.

謝謝你的提問，史黛西。我先開始，然後讓戴夫對 Q2 進行更多補充。所以如果我回到第二季度，是的，如果你看看我們的結果，工業確實下降了個位數。汽車銷量繼續以中等個位數下滑。這是連續第三個季度出現下滑，不過與去年同期相比，表現仍然良好，下滑幅度不到 10%。第二季下降了約 9%。是的，個人電子產品具有實力，而且我確實看到這個市場——它經歷了整個週期。它在 2023 年第一季的某個時候觸底，然後我們看到市場正在走強。並且，其環比增長了 15% 左右，但同比增長了近 20%。所以那邊肯定有實力。我還要說的是，在企業市場上，我們的收入再次減少了，但我們看到那裡正在復蘇，我相信庫存調整已經過去。至於其他業務，它的成長要歸功於您提到的計算器業務，也歸功於我們的 DLP 業務，它主要服務於個人電子市場。戴夫，當我們討論第二季度時，也許您可以對各個領域進行更詳細的介紹。

Yes. I think as we have seen, even inside of industrial, we've had sectors behave asynchronously. So when we first began to see weakness in industrial, which really began in the third quarter, that was the peak in third quarter '22, that was the peak in industrial. We talked about seeing about half of the sectors or so show weakness and those earlier stage sectors, some of them have found bottoms and begun to grow, and you can see some of that bottoming process taking place. The others, we're only three or so quarters in, and we've got several of them that are continuing to decline at double-digit rates. So again, as we've seen all of our markets behave asynchronously inside of the sectors, we've seen that in industrial as well. Do you have a follow-up, Stacy?

是的。我認為正如我們所見，即使在工業內部，各部門的行為也存在異步性。因此，當我們第一次看到工業疲軟時（這實際上始於第三季），那是 22 年第三季的頂峰，那是工業的頂峰。我們談到，大約有一半的行業表現出疲軟，而那些處於早期階段的行業，其中一些已經觸底並開始成長，你可以看到一些觸底過程正在發生。對於其他業務，我們只進行了三個季度左右，其中有幾個業務繼續以兩位數的速度下滑。因此，正如我們所看到的，我們所有市場在各個行業內的行為都是非同步的，我們在工業領域也看到了這種情況。史黛西，你還有後續問題嗎？

I do actually. Maybe to reask the same question, so you're guiding revenue sequentially up close to $300 million. How do we think about that $300 million growth parsing out across the end markets in Q3?

我確實如此。也許要重新問同樣的問題，所以您指導的收入連續接近 3 億美元。我們如何看待第三季終端市場 3 億美元的成長？

Yes, Stacy. Hey, I'm on the call, but still, we are not going to predict or to give a guidance by market for the third quarter. I mean, the midpoint of the range, we expect revenue to grow about 7%. But as you know, it's not unusual for us to see sequential growth in the third quarter. I mean, typically, this --

是的，史黛西。嘿，我正在通話中，但是我們仍然不會預測或給出第三季的市場指導。我的意思是，在這個範圍的中間值，我們預計收入將增長約 7%。但正如您所知，第三季出現連續成長並不罕見。我的意思是，通常來說，--

Is it PE is what I'm asking. Is it mostly PE?

我問的是PE嗎？大部分都是PE嗎？

Typically, Q3 is a quarter where if you go back to pre-COVID days, this is the quarter where customers are preparing their end equipment or the end product for the holiday season. So, it's usually a strong quarter for the company. And we are seeing that very similar behavior right now at the midpoint of our -- of the range of our forecast. I don't know, Dave, if you want to add anything.

通常，如果追溯到疫情之前，第三季是客戶為假期準備最終設備或最終產品的季度。因此，這對公司來說通常是一個強勁的季度。我們現在看到的非常相似的行為正處於我們的預測範圍的中間點。我不知道，戴夫，你是否想補充一些內容。

I think that's good. Thank you, Stacy.

我認為那很好。謝謝你，史黛西。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

美國銀行的維韋克·艾莉亞（Vivek Arya）。

Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the China market, and what you're seeing in terms of not just the demand side, but are you seeing any incremental supply coming on that can create a concern from a pricing perspective? Because every time this question is asked to industries, and not just TI, the answer is always that, well, the IP is not there, they don't have product breath and whatnot, but they're still buying a lot of trailing edge equipment. So at what point, Haviv, does that start to become a concern from just a global capacity and global pricing perspective for Texas Instruments?

感謝您回答我的問題。我想問中國市場的情況，您不僅從需求方面看到了什麼，而且是否看到任何增量供應可能會從定價角度引發擔憂？因為每次向行業（不僅僅是 TI）提出這個問題時，答案總是，嗯，IP 不存在，他們沒有產品活力等等，但他們仍在購買大量的後端設備。那麼，Haviv，從德州儀器的全球產能和全球定價角度來看，什麼時候這才會開始成為一個問題呢？

Thanks, Vivek. Let me start with the first part of your question on how the China market did because I think it was a good quarter for our China business. Our China headquarters business grew sequentially at about 20% versus the first quarter. And we've seen the momentum across all markets. I mean, all five markets grew sequentially, I think, 15% or 20%. So they all did well. And this is after seven quarters of sequential decline. So if you think about the way I look at the China market, and it was exposed to all end markets for TI, it took seven quarters for this asynchronous cycle to go through, starting with PE, personal electronics, then spreading to industrial and enterprise and just lately to automotive. But all of these have now corrected, and Q2 was a good quarter for our business. And I believe we are now shipping to end demand, meaning customers have stopped managing their inventories over there.

謝謝，維韋克。讓我先回答你問題的第一部分，即中國市場的表現如何，因為我認為這對我們的中國業務來說是一個好季度。我們的中國總部業務季增約20％。我們已經看到所有市場都呈現這種勢頭。我的意思是，我認為所有五個市場都連續成長了 15% 或 20%。所以他們都做得很好。這是在連續七個季度下滑之後。因此，如果您考慮一下我看待中國市場的方式，並且它接觸到了 TI 的所有終端市場，那麼這個非同步週期需要七個季度才能完成，從 PE、個人電子產品開始，然後擴展到工業和企業，最近又擴展到汽車市場。但現在所有這些都已糾正，第二季對我們的業務來說是一個好季度。我相信我們現在正在運送至最終需求，這意味著客戶已經停止在那裡管理庫存。

Now in terms of the competition in China, I don't think that's -- I mean, we've been very vocal about it. This is, first, not new, that competition has intensified over the past several years. And I think it's growing stronger. I think it's a mistake for us to think that these guys are only doing simple parts. These are very ambitious, highly educated competitors. And our job here in TI, and that's what I tried to teach the team, is to compete. And I will tell you that, yes, the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins. So we are going to continue to do that. Our goal, objective is to continue and gain market share in China.

現在就中國的競爭而言，我不認為這是——我的意思是，我們對此一直非常直言不諱。首先，這並不是什麼新鮮事，過去幾年的競爭愈演愈烈。我認為它會變得越來越強大。我認為我們認為這些人只做簡單的部分是錯的。這些都是雄心勃勃、受過高等教育的競爭對手。我們在 TI 的任務就是競爭，這也是我試著教給團隊的。我可以告訴你們，是的，中國市場的競爭更加激烈，但我們可以參與競爭，而且能夠以非常誘人的利潤贏得業務。因此我們將繼續這樣做。我們的目標就是繼續在中國贏得市場佔有率。

Yes. Vivek, I'd just add one thing, Haviv, the growth in China that we saw was strong across all the markets, including automotive and industrial there. So I think that's an important point.

是的。Vivek，我只想補充一點，Haviv，我們看到中國所有市場都呈現強勁成長，包括汽車和工業市場。所以我認為這是一個重要的觀點。

So Vivek, you have a follow-up?

那麼 Vivek，您還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, thank you Dave. So I know for Q3, you're not giving specific end market commentary. But just from an industry perspective, how would you describe the supply-demand situation in industrial and automotive semis, just because we see such a broad range of data points. Do you think we are past the worst in terms of inventory adjustment and supply issues for those two end markets? And if you could describe the situation in those two markets separately, that will be really, really helpful. Thank you.

是的，謝謝你，戴夫。所以我知道對於第三季度，您沒有給出具體的終端市場評論。但僅從行業角度來看，由於我們看到如此廣泛的數據點，您如何描述工業和汽車半導體的供需。您認為這兩個終端市場的庫存調整和供應問題最糟糕的時期已經過去了嗎？如果您能分別描述這兩個市場的情況，那將會非常非常有幫助。謝謝。

Dave, I'll let you take this one.

戴夫，我讓你拿這個。

Okay. Yes. I think what we can see, Vivek, of course we don't get any data feeds on customer inventory. We don't get any data feeds on customer shipments, but we can look into things like the order patterns, we can look at feeds that we get in consignment, we can see what's happening with our inventories and our positions. So as we've talked about, cancellations, as an example, as a measure, have continued to come down, our lead times, I described as very stable.

好的。是的。我想我們可以看到，Vivek，我們當然沒有收到任何有關客戶庫存的數據回饋。我們沒有收到任何有關客戶發貨的數據回饋，但我們可以查看訂單模式等內容，我們可以查看我們在托運中獲得的數據，我們可以看到我們的庫存和倉位的情況。因此，正如我們所討論的，作為衡量標準，取消率持續下降，我們的交貨時間，我描述為非常穩定。

We've got immediate availability of almost all of our products, so that does drive lower visibility with backlog because customers can get product when they need it. And we do believe that some markets -- PE bottomed back in first quarter of '23 and has been more seasonal since then. We've seen some of the other markets that, as we've shared earlier, are beginning to grow, so there's likely a bottom forming within some of those markets. We've got industrial and automotive that have continued to decline. Now I'd say within industrial, I mentioned earlier, some of the sectors are forming a bottom, others are continuing to decline. And automotive, we've got three quarters behind us, right? So that's how, as we look into where we are positioned today, but we don't have a strong signal that can tell us exactly to be able to answer the question that you asked.

我們幾乎所有產品都可以立即供應，因此，這確實降低了積壓訂單的可見性，因為客戶可以在需要時獲得產品。我們確實相信，一些市場——PE 在 23 年第一季觸底，自那時起就變得更加季節性。正如我們之前所分享的，我們已經看到其他一些市場開始成長，因此其中一些市場可能正在形成底部。我們的工業和汽車業持續衰退。現在我想說，在工業領域，正如我之前提到的，一些行業正在形成底部，而其他行業則在繼續下滑。至於汽車方面，我們已經落後了四個季度，對嗎？所以這就是我們目前所處的位置，但是我們沒有一個強烈的訊號可以準確地告訴我們如何回答你提出的問題。

Yes. The only one comment I will add, Vivek, in terms of the difference. So automotive, so far, at least just year to date, is down mid-single digits, and that is off of a very good 2023 for us, right? We grew about 17% in 2023. And I think it's just helped by the strong secular content growth that we see in automotive. And this is across both combustion engines, or ICE, and EVs. So that's maybe the slight difference I see between these two markets.

是的。我唯一要補充的是一條評論，Vivek，關於差異。所以到目前為止，至少從今年到目前為止，汽車行業的銷售額下降了中等個位數，而這對我們來說是一個非常好的 2023 年，對吧？2023 年我們的成長幅度約為 17%。我認為這得益於汽車產業強勁的長期內容成長。這適用於內燃機（ICE）和電動車。這也許就是我看到的兩個市場之間的細微差別。

Thank you Vivek. We'll go to the next caller.

謝謝你，Vivek。我們將接聽下一位來電。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Hey, guys, thanks for letting me ask a question. Haviv, great to have you on the call. So I'll ask one for you and maybe Rafael would chime in as well. You guys have given -- at least Rafael -- in the past some mid-quarter updates or earnings call updates on CapEx and depreciation versus your pre-existing plan. So are you still planning to spend $5 billion a year? And does the depreciation ranges, Rafael, you gave before still apply, or are we going to have some more flexibility on those metrics going forward?

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你們讓我提問。Haviv，很高興您來接聽電話。所以我會幫你問一個問題，也許拉斐爾也會同意。你們——至少拉斐爾——在過去提供了一些關於資本支出和折舊與先前計劃相比的中期季度更新或收益電話更新。那麼您仍計劃每年花費 50 億美元嗎？拉斐爾，您之前給出的折舊範圍是否仍然適用，或者我們今後對這些指標是否會有更大的靈活性？

Okay. I'll start and Rafael, maybe you can provide some more color. So first, again, our strategy has not changed, and it continues to serve us well, as I said before. The secular growth in industrial and automotive and our position, our market position and our product portfolio position, gives us the confidence that there is a higher opportunity over there.

好的。我先開始了，拉斐爾，也許你可以提供更多的顏色。首先，我們的策略沒有改變，而且正如我之前所說，它繼續為我們帶來良好的服務。工業和汽車領域的長期成長以及我們的地位、市場地位和產品組合地位使我們相信，那裡有更大的機會。

On top of it, as we said earlier, customers do want and value geopolitically dependable capacity. So we are pleased with our progress. Our CapEx strategy provides us both with capacity for growth and flexibility. And at the end of the day, CapEx supports revenue growth, and need to be prepared for different scenarios.

最重要的是，正如我們之前所說，客戶確實想要並重視地緣政治上可靠的產能。所以我們對我們的進展感到滿意。我們的資本支出策略為我們提供了成長能力和靈活性。歸根結底，資本支出支持收入成長，並且需要為不同的情況做好準備。

Now, we always continue to evaluate our plans and investments based on what we see on the demand environment, the dynamics, the growth opportunities in the market. And to talk more about it, as I said in my prepared remarks, we are going to have our off-cycle capital management call in a month, in four weeks. It's just an opportunity to share just additional insight. So we'll go through our investment plan with more granularity on what exactly we are doing per factory, and then we'll provide a framework of revenue scenarios and what would free cash flow per share and CapEx do versus each and every scenario.

現在，我們始終根據對需求環境、動態和市場成長機會的觀察來評估我們的計劃和投資。為了進一步討論這個問題，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們將在一個月或四周後召開非週期資本管理電話會議。這只是一個分享額外見解的機會。因此，我們將更詳細地介紹我們的投資計劃，了解每個工廠的具體工作，然後我們將提供一個收入情境框架，以及每股自由現金流和資本支出與每個情境相比的情況。

And regarding depreciation, Rafael, I don't know if you want to add anything?

關於折舊，拉斐爾，我不知道您是否想補充什麼？

Yes. So I'll just comment on depreciation. Ross, I'm going to narrow that depreciation range a little bit, both for '24 and '25. So for 2024, we now expect depreciation to be between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion. And for 2025, we now expect depreciation to be about $2 billion to $2.3 billion.

是的。所以我只想評論一下折舊。羅斯，我將稍微縮小折舊範圍，包括 24 年和 25 年。因此，我們預計 2024 年折舊額將在 15 億至 16 億美元之間。到 2025 年，我們預計折舊額將達到約 20 億至 23 億美元。

Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

羅斯，你還有其他問題嗎？

I do, and thanks for all those details, Haviv and Rafael. So one for you, Rafael, if I heard you right on the gross margin rising in the second quarter, you mentioned that loadings increased. I thought that they were going to decrease to burn some inventory now that you have that at kind of the $4 billion target. So did something change there? And what's the expectations for utilization going forward?

是的，感謝 Haviv 和 Rafael 提供的詳細資訊。因此，拉斐爾，如果我沒聽錯，第二季毛利率上升，你提到裝載量增加了。我認為，既然現在目標已經達到了 40 億美元，他們就會減少庫存以消耗一些庫存。那麼那裡有什麼改變嗎？對未來的利用率有何預期？

Yes, no, so the loadings came in about as expected, but let me just tell you more about it. Second quarter loadings were up versus first quarter. And as you saw, we're essentially flat on inventory. So essentially, the ins and outs were pretty much offsetting.

是的，不是，所以負載大致符合預期，但讓我告訴你更多相關資訊。第二季度的負載量較第一季上升。正如您所看到的，我們的庫存基本上持平。因此從本質上來說，進出情況基本上是抵消的。

When it comes to third quarter, we expect utilization -- or factory loadings to be flat to slightly up. And in our base case for the EPS guidance that we have, that's what we have in there. But of course, we have time during the quarter to adjust those loadings, depending on what we expect for fourth quarter.

談到第三季度，我們預計利用率或工廠負載將持平或略有上升。在我們的每股盈餘指導基本情境中，這就是我們所擁有的。但當然，我們有時間在本季調整這些負荷，這取決於我們對第四季的預期。

On GPM specifically for third quarter, I would in that base case at the midpoint of our guidance, I would expect GPM percentage to be up versus second quarter.

就第三季的毛利率而言，在我們預期的中位數基準情況下，我預計毛利率百分比將較第二季上升。

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

Thank you, Ross. We'll take the next caller please.

謝謝你，羅斯。請我們接聽下一位來電。

Chris Danely, Citibank.

花旗銀行的克里斯丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

Just a follow-up on Ross' question in terms of gross margin. So depreciation is going up like $100 million roughly per quarter for next year. But if utilization rates keep going up, i.e., if nothing gets any worse, do you think is it possible that your gross margins are bottoming now? Or is there anything else that could drive them lower or maybe provide a tailwind? Just give us maybe the mechanics around it for the next several quarters?

這只是對羅斯關於毛利率問題的後續問題。因此明年每季的折舊費將增加約 1 億美元。但是，如果利用率持續上升，即情況沒有任何惡化，您認為您的毛利率現在是否可能觸底？或者有其他因素可能導致價格下跌，或提供順風？您能給我們介紹一下接下來幾季的機制嗎？

Sure. Sure. I'll be happy -- and I'll -- at the end of the day, yes, it is possible that is the case. It's all going to depend on revenue, of course. So the main driver is revenue. So in addition to revenue, as we bring more -- executing on our strategy to load more 300mm wafers and bringing more external loadings internal, the fall-through excluding depreciation would likely turn more in the range of 75% to 85% on a year-on-year basis.

當然。當然。我會很高興——而且我會——到最後，是的，情況有可能如此。當然，這一切都取決於收入。因此主要驅動力是收入。因此，除了收入之外，隨著我們執行裝載更多 300 毫米晶圓和將更多外部裝載轉移到內部的戰略，扣除折舊後的跌幅可能會在同比基礎上增加 75％ 至 85％ 之間。

Now of course, any one quarter, even any one year, you may have puts and takes that -- utilization or factory loadings is one of those, that sometimes it goes against you, sometimes it goes in favor. But in general, expect that fall through on 75% to 85%, not counting depreciation.

當然，任何一個季度，甚至任何一年，都可能會有利用率或工廠負荷就是其中之一，有時它會對你不利，有時它會對你有利。但總體而言，預計下降幅度將達到 75% 至 85%（不計算折舊）。

So, you do the math, whatever revenue assumptions you want to put over the next several quarters or years, do that fall-through, and you can very easily model where -- and I just gave you depreciation, right? So you can then model what gross margins can do over the next several years.

所以，你算一下，無論你想在未來幾個季度或幾年做出什麼樣的收入假設，都要做相應的計算，這樣你就可以很容易地模擬出 - 我剛才給了你折舊，對吧？這樣你就可以模擬未來幾年毛利率的變動。

Great. Thanks for the additional bread crumbs. They're very useful. My follow-up is just on bookings. I think last quarter, you said that bookings were increasing every month. Is that still true? And do you think that for the industrial automotive space we're at least getting close to the bottom there? Or do you feel any better about either of those end markets on a relative basis?

偉大的。謝謝你提供額外的麵包屑。它們非常有用。我的跟進只是關於預訂。我記得上個季度您說過預訂量每個月都在增加。現在還是這樣嗎？您是否認為，對於工業汽車領域來說，我們至少已經接近底部了？或者從相對角度而言，您對這兩個終端市場感覺更好一些？

Yes. So again, as you look at those things, revenue did increase as well as orders throughout the quarter, which is very typical that we would see in the second quarter. And certainly, as we've got growth at the midpoint, that would not be unexpected. Again, those other sides of lead times, really on all of our products having immediate availability, and stable lead times, cancellations continuing to decline. All those things, I think, point to supply and demand becoming more in balance and that availability. So -- and there is a second part of your question, Chris, that I'm not addressing, I'm not sure what it was. Could you just repeat it for me?

是的。所以，再說一遍，當你看到這些事情時，你會發現整個季度的收入和訂單確實都有所增加，這是我們在第二季度看到的很典型的情況。當然，由於我們已經實現了中點成長，所以這並不令人意外。再次，交貨時間的其他方面，實際上我們所有的產品都具有立即可用性和穩定的交貨時間，取消率持續下降。我認為，所有這些都表明供需將變得更加平衡，並且供應也將更加充足。所以 — — 克里斯，你的問題還有第二部分，我沒有回答，我不確定它是什麼。你能再給我重複一遍嗎？

Yes, it was just, our bookings are still increasing month over month. And then between the auto or the industrial end market, do you feel any better or worse about either of those?

是的，我們的預訂量仍然逐月增加。那麼在汽車或工業終端市場之間，您對它們的感覺是好是壞呢？

Well, yes, again, I think that we've got half of the sectors that, again, we can see forming a bottom inside of industrial. Overall, it's been elongated, but if you look at it sector by sector, it's probably a better view overall. And in auto, this is our third quarter of decline. We're down about 13% from where the revenue peaked. It's a pretty shallow decline compared to how the other markets had behaved so far. So that's what we see.

嗯，是的，我再一次認為，我們已經看到了半數產業在工業內部形成底部。總體而言，它已經被拉長了，但如果你逐個部門地來看，總體而言它可能是一個更好的視圖。在汽車產業，這是我們第三季出現下滑。我們的收入較高峰時下降了約 13％。與其他市場迄今的表現相比，這次跌幅相當小。這就是我們所看到的。

So thank you, Chris.

所以謝謝你，克里斯。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you so much for taking the question. Haviv, maybe one for you on CapEx and how you're thinking about long-term revenue growth. You've always had the slide in your capital management call deck where you show revenue supported. I think you have for '26, you had $30 billion; for 2030, you had $45 billion. I know you're constantly evaluating your plans, and you talked about presenting various scenarios on the August call. But I'm curious, is the $30 billion for '26 and $45 billion for 2030, are those still kind of the base case scenarios for you, or has there been any change post conversations with customers?

嗨，下午好。非常感謝您回答這個問題。Haviv，也許您可以就資本支出以及您如何看待長期收入成長提出一個問題。您的資本管理電話會議中始終都有一張投影片來展示收入支援情況。我認為 26 年你有 300 億美元；到 2030 年，這一數字將會達到 450 億美元。我知道您一直在評估您的計劃，並且您在八月的電話會議上談到了提出各種方案。但我很好奇，26 年的 300 億美元和 2030 年的 450 億美元，這些仍然是您的基本情況嗎，還是在與客戶交談後有任何變化？

So Toshiya, first, I do want to leave something for August. So I think it's going to be just a better environment to go provide this information. We'll also provide supporting materials, and we'll update the presentation, where you'll see, as I said, the different scenarios and how we see them. And to me, step-by-step, right now, when I think about how we establish our CapEx plan, we need to think about what the next peak wants to do. We'll discuss that. We'll discuss different scenarios of revenue leading to the next peak and what will CapEx do accordingly, and as a result, what free cash flow per share will be. Again, I don't want to give the whole pitch right now, but I think it's going to be important for investors to join and hear our latest update.

所以Toshiya，首先，我確實想為八月留下一些東西。所以我認為這將會是一個提供此類資訊的更好的環境。我們還將提供支援材料，並更新演示文稿，正如我所說，您將看到不同的場景以及我們如何看待它們。對我來說，現在，當我一步一步思考如何制定資本支出計畫時，我們需要考慮下一個高峰想要做什麼。我們將討論這個問題。我們將討論收入達到下一個高峰的不同情景，以及資本支出將相應地做什麼，最終每股自由現金流將是多少。再說一次，我現在不想給出整個推介，但我認為讓投資者參與並聽取我們的最新進展非常重要。

Understood, Haviv. Just a question on Embedded Processing. Revenue was down sequentially, and the year-over-year decline actually accelerated. Analog, we've seen some stabilization. So I'm just curious what you're seeing in the Embedded Processing side. Is this purely volume pressure, or is there a pricing or competitive component here as well? I think the operating margins for that business came in a little bit as well sequentially. So just curious, thank you.

明白了，哈維夫。這只是一個關於嵌入式處理的問題。收入環比下降，且年減實際上有所加速。模擬方面，我們看到了一些穩定。所以我只是好奇您在嵌入式處理方面看到了什麼。這純粹是數量壓力嗎，還是也有定價或競爭因素？我認為該業務的營業利潤率也比上一季上升。只是好奇，謝謝。

Yes. Let me start first on a high level. The Embedded business -- so when I look at the underneath beyond the numbers, it's getting stronger. Our product portfolio is improving, and when I look at this decade, just the opportunity for that business to be a major contributor for TI's growth of free cash flow per share is very high. So I'm very encouraged by the progress of the business.

是的。讓我先從高層次開始。嵌入式業務——因此，當我透過數字看本質時，我發現它正在變得更加強大。我們的產品組合正在不斷改善，當我展望未來十年時，我發現該業務成為 TI 每股自由現金流成長主要貢獻者的機會非常高。因此，我對業務的進展感到非常鼓舞。

Now regarding the cycle, first, Embedded has a little bit of a different structure compared to Analog. It's mainly composed of industrial and automotive, so it has less exposure into personal electronics, enterprise or communication equipment. And these two markets kind of peaked later, right? So if you look at the Embedded business versus Analog, it peaked a year after, kind of middle of 2023 versus the middle of '22 for the Analog business.

現在關於週期，首先，嵌入式的結構與模擬相比有一點不同。它主要由工業和汽車組成，因此較少涉及個人電子、企業或通訊設備。這兩個市場後來都達到頂峰了，對嗎？因此，如果您比較嵌入式業務與模擬業務，它會在一年後達到頂峰，也就是 2023 年中期，而模擬業務則在 2022 年中期。

In addition to that, the Embedded business today -- although as Rafael mentioned it's being changed -- was mainly supported from foundry wafers during the upcycle, and we felt more limitation over there compared to our internal supply capacity. So now when these supply issues are resolved, we are seeing customers just adjusting their inventory. That's what I believe is happening, and therefore, Embedded is seeing that sharper correction. But again, when I look at it from the top, Embedded is strengthening, and I think will continue to serve us very well moving forward.

除此之外，儘管正如 Rafael 所提到的那樣，今天的嵌入式業務正在發生變化，但在上升週期內，它主要由代工晶圓支撐，與我們的內部供應能力相比，我們在那裡感受到了更多的限制。因此，現在當這些供應問題得到解決時，我們看到客戶只是調整他們的庫存。我相信這就是正在發生的事情，因此，嵌入式正在經歷更劇烈的調整。但是，當我從頂部看時，嵌入式正在增強，並且我認為它將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

Let me just add, on the operating profit question or angle that you had. Just as a reminder, as Haviv said, traditionally Embedded has relied on external wafers, but we now have -- we're bringing them in, and we have the Lehi factory as -- disproportionately will serve Embedded. And therefore, Embedded is taking a disproportionate amount of the fixed cost charges there. But just like that is a put right now, it will be a tailwind. It's a headwind now, it will be a tailwind in the future, as we qualify more and more parts -- Embedded parts as well as Analog -- at that Lehi factory.

讓我補充一下您提到的營業利潤問題或角度。需要提醒的是，正如哈維夫所說，傳統上嵌入式依賴外部晶圓，但現在我們正在將它們引進來，並且我們擁有萊希工廠，將主要為嵌入式服務。因此，Embedded 在那裡承擔了不成比例的固定成本費用。但就像現在那樣，它將成為一個順風。現在這是一個逆風，但將來卻會成為順風，因為我們在利哈伊工廠生產越來越多的零件——嵌入式零件以及模擬零件。

Sure, thank you so much.

當然，非常感謝。

Have a great day. Next caller please.

祝你有美好的一天。請下一位致電。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Yeah. Thank you for taking my question and great to have you on the call, Haviv. Maybe to follow up on the Embedded question, right, because this business grew 3% last year versus your Analog business, which was down 15%. Yes, year to date, it's down about as much as your peers or, I would argue, slightly better. You've articulated the positive strategy changes previously like more catalog, broad market focus. So bottom line, again, over the past few years, it seems like you've made good improvements in this business.

是的。感謝您回答我的問題，很高興您能來接聽電話，Haviv。也許要跟進嵌入式問題，對吧，因為去年這個業務成長了 3%，而模擬業務則下降了 15%。是的，今年迄今為止，其下降幅度與同行差不多，或者我認為，略好一些。您之前已經闡明了積極的策略變化，例如更多的目錄、廣泛的市場關注。所以總而言之，在過去的幾年裡，你似乎在這項業務上取得了很好的進步。

So as the team moves Embedded more to internal manufacturing, combined with the strategy shift, maybe Haviv, can you just comment on the design win momentum? What areas are you particularly doing well in, and I'm not sure Rafael, how should we think about the improvements in Embedded margins as you move what was once mostly outsourced to internal manufacturing?

因此，隨著團隊將嵌入式更多地轉向內部製造，結合策略轉變，也許是 Haviv，您能否評論一下設計取勝的勢頭？您在哪些領域做得特別好？

Yes. Let me start, and I'll let Rafael add some more color. But again, as you mentioned, the Embedded business has gone through change in the last four or five years, and Amichai has done a great job to position the business such that it benefits our competitive advantages.

是的。讓我開始，然後我會讓拉斐爾添加一些顏色。但是，正如您所說，嵌入式業務在過去四到五年經歷了變化，Amichai 出色地定位了該業務，從而有利於我們的競爭優勢。

Think about manufacturing and technology, so shifting really from almost like 80% external to when done, maybe the opposite, 80% internal. Building a higher breadth of products, so not less concentration of revenue per socket and us expanding our product portfolio. Utilizing the reach of our market channels, think about the large sales team of TI, think about TI.com, the more catalog is the product, the better fit to our strategy. So in that sense, that is moving well.

想想製造和技術，因此實際上從幾乎 80％ 的外部轉變為完成後可能相反的 80％ 的內部。建立更廣泛的產品，這樣每個插槽的收入集中度不會降低，而且我們可以擴大產品組合。利用我們市場通路的覆蓋範圍，想想 TI 的龐大銷售團隊，想想 TI.com，產品目錄越多，越適合我們的策略。從這個意義上來說，進展順利。

In terms of design-in momentum, again, it's mainly an industrial and automotive business, so very high visibility on the automotive side. But as you also know, it takes time. So I'm encouraged with the design-in momentum. Our funnel increased tremendously when I compare it to the Analog side because every funnel of every supplier grows, but we've seen a disproportional growth of our design-in momentum for Embedded versus previous year and also versus Analog just in terms of the rates.

就設計勢頭而言，它主要是工業和汽車業務，因此在汽車方面的知名度非常高。但正如你們所知，這需要時間。因此我對設計的勢頭感到鼓舞。當我將我們的漏斗與模擬方面進行比較時，我們的漏斗大幅增加，因為每個供應商的每個漏斗都在增長，但與去年相比，我們看到嵌入式設計勢頭的增長不成比例，與模擬相比也是如此，就速率而言。

And I will give some examples. We see good momentum in real-time control. Think about EVs, onboard chargers, think about traction inverters. Very good momentum in connectivity, automotive and beyond. Think about car entries, tire pressure monitoring and other body-related opportunities in the automotive market. I can continue with kind of more application-specific products like our radar systems. We have great position and growing position in radar, winning a lot of new business, both with the Tier 1s and the OEMs. This is from imaging radar for the front to the corner radar to even parking assist and also in-cabin sensing, that radar is taking a bigger and bigger part in the automotive market.

我會舉一些例子。我們看到即時控制的良好動力。想想電動車、車用充電器、想想牽引逆變器。在連結性、汽車和其他領域發展勢頭良好。想想汽車入口、輪胎壓力監測和汽車市場中其他與身體相關的機會。我可以繼續介紹更多特定應用的產品，例如我們的雷達系統。我們在雷達領域擁有強大的市場地位並且還在不斷提升，贏得了許多新業務，包括來自一級供應商和原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的業務。從前方成像雷達到角部雷達甚至停車輔助以及車艙感應，雷達在汽車市場中佔據越來越大的份額。

And many other examples on the industrial side. Here the number of end equipment is really vast, hundreds of end equipments. But this is where our catalog MCUs, that we are really reviving the presence of TI and building a new portfolio based on our MSP family, is doing very well in winning new business across the board, across the market, utilizing our channel advantage.

工業方面還有許多其他例子。這裡的終結設備數量實在太多了，有上百種終結設備。但這就是我們的目錄 MCU 所在，我們真正重振了 TI 的存在，並基於我們的 MSP 系列構建了新的產品組合，利用我們的渠道優勢，在整個市場上贏得新業務方面做得非常出色。

So I can go on and on here. But again, just the evidence of my excitement of what this business can do for us in the second half of this decade. Rafael?

所以我可以繼續說下去。但是，這只是證明了我對這項業務在未來五年能為我們帶來什麼感到興奮。拉斐爾？

Yes, I'll just add on your question on fall-throughs for Embedded. Of course we don't give guidance separate for the segments. So the 75% to 85% gross margin fall-through ex depreciation that I talked about earlier applies to both. Outside of -- if we didn't have Lehi, and I'll address that in a second, but we didn't have that, I would say, generally Analog would be at the higher end of that range; Embedded would be at the lower end. But for the next year or two or three -- because Lehi, all those fixed costs are already there, including people -- we're going to have some nice tailwind, and a good portion of that will go to Embedded. But over the longer time frame, 75% to 85% ex depreciation is a good guide to use.

是的，我只想補充一下關於嵌入式失敗的問題。當然，我們不會針對各部分分別提供指導。因此，我之前提到的扣除折舊後毛利率下降 75% 至 85% 對兩者都適用。除此之外 — — 如果我們沒有 Lehi，我馬上就會談到這一點，但我們沒有那個，我想說，一般來說 Analog 會處於該範圍的高端；嵌入式將處於較低端。但在接下來的一兩年或三年裡——因為利哈伊，所有的固定成本，包括人力成本都已經存在——我們將獲得一些不錯的順風，其中很大一部分將用於嵌入式。但從較長的時間範圍來看，75%至85%的折舊率是一個很好的指導值。

Do you have a follow-on, Harlan?

哈蘭，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. In terms of channel reach, right, we haven't heard you guys talk about TI.com in quite some time. I think the last data point we got was it about $2 billion in sales in calendar '22 and it sort of has this additional benefit from a business planning perspective, being a really good sort of leading indicator of demand inflection. As you sort of potentially pass the bottom of sort of the current cycle here, wondering if there's been any notable movement or trends in TI.com? And maybe from a longer term perspective, like what initiatives has the team put in place to sort of further improve the customer pull to TI.com from a mid to longer term perspective?

是的。就通路覆蓋範圍而言，我們已經很久沒有聽到你們談論 TI.com 了。我認為我們得到的最新數據點是 22 年的銷售額約為 20 億美元，從業務規劃的角度來看，它有額外的好處，是需求轉折點的一個非常好的領先指標。當您可能已經度過當前週期的底部時，您想知道 TI.com 上是否有任何值得注意的動向或趨勢？也許從更長遠的角度來看，例如從中長期來看，團隊採取了哪些措施來進一步提高客戶對 TI.com 的吸引力？

Yes. Let me start more in the mid to longer term, and I'll let Dave add some more color on how it looks versus the cycle. So in terms of the investments in TI.com, yes, they are continuing. These are very strategic and important investments for us. We believe there is a huge opportunity to digitize what we call the last mile, or that interface between us and the customers. There are many, many customers, still a long tail of customers, that we can't see today, but as they move to TI.com, we can supply them with more information. We can even provide opportunity to place backlog electronically, directly to TI. And in that sense, the importance for us is to just know our customers better, understand the end equipment and provide the relevant product portfolio to serve their growth and win market share, right? So that data is to us, very, very important, and the direct connectivity with the customer is important. To do just that, we are investing in IT systems. We are investing in warehouses, or, if you will, logistics to serve these customers just in time, as they need it. And that is part of the way customers would opt to TI and just connect directly to us.

是的。讓我從中期和長期的角度開始講解，然後讓戴夫補充一些關於它與週期的關係的細節。因此就對 TI.com 的投資而言，是的，他們會繼續。對我們來說，這些都是非常具有戰略意義且重要的投資。我們相信，將所謂的「最後一哩路」或我們與客戶之間的介面數位化，有著巨大的機會。有很多很多客戶，仍然有一大批長尾客戶，我們今天還看不到他們，但隨著他們轉向 TI.com，我們可以為他們提供更多資訊。我們甚至可以提供機會以電子方式將積壓訂單直接提交給 TI。從這個意義上講，對我們來說，重要的是更好地了解我們的客戶，了解最終設備並提供相關的產品組合來服務他們的成長並贏得市場份額，對嗎？所以數據對我們來說非常非常重要，與客戶的直接聯繫也很重要。為了實現這一點，我們正在投資 IT 系統。我們正在投資倉庫，或者說是投資物流，以便在這些客戶需要的時候及時為他們提供服務。這也是客戶選擇 TI 並直接與我們聯繫的方式之一。

Now in terms of the short term, Dave, maybe you can talk a little bit about what we're seeing there through the cycle?

現在就短期而言，戴夫，也許你可以談談我們在整個週期中看到的情況？

Yes. And as we would have expected, orders that are placed through TI.com are down significantly from its peak, just I think, just telling of where we are with availability of product. But the great thing with TI.com is customers connect through APIs and put their planning systems on that. When they do have a shortage, they can look into our inventory, they can see it -- some have even automated that process and have products shipped, in many cases, the same day. So we think the long-term strategic value of TI.com is much higher than the transactions that will cross it here in the short term.

是的。正如我們預期的那樣，透過 TI.com 下的訂單量較高峰期大幅下降，我認為這只是說明了我們產品的供應情況。但 TI.com 的優點在於客戶可以透過 API 連接並將他們的規劃系統放在上面。當確實出現短缺時，他們可以查看我們的庫存，他們可以看到——有些甚至已經實現了流程的自動化，並且在許多情況下，當天就可以發貨。因此，我們認為 TI.com 的長期策略價值遠高於短期內發生的交易。

So thank you, Harlan. We will go to the next caller please.

所以謝謝你，哈蘭。請我們接聽下一位來電。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

Great. Thank you. I wonder just as you kind of think about this longer term strategy, you've got well over 200 days of inventory, you have relatively low factory utilization. Like do you think this means we won't have shortages down the road, that people can look at the capacity that you have, the inventory that you have, and they won't have the need to accumulate inventory? Is that part of the thinking? Or do you think it's just inevitable that we'll get back to that at some point?

偉大的。謝謝。我想知道，當您考慮這個長期策略時，您的庫存已經超過 200 天，而工廠利用率相對較低。您是否認為這意味著我們將來不會短缺，人們可以查看您的產能和庫存，並且無需累積庫存？這是想法的一部分嗎？或者您認為我們最終必然會回到這種狀態？

Again, the investment first in capacity ahead of the demand and then in inventory is done to really improve customer service, right? And we believe it's important to keep that not only now when it's kind of easy and we have a market cycle that you can call it at a low point. The test for our company would be at the next upcycle, okay? Not only an upcycle, you can model, Joe, any upcycle that you want, but we want to be supporting our customers at the highest level, even if the cycle looks like a very steep one. And we model, for example, the COVID cycle as a similar one, and that's what drives our investments. I think it's very, very important to serve your customers ahead of the competition at times like that because that's the opportunity to gain share, and we are going to be prepared for that opportunity. Having said that, all that is done in a very thoughtful way. Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity position such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory. And I'm pleased with the progress we have made, but the test will come, and I'm sure it will come one day at the next upcycle. I don't know if you want to add anything, Dave.

再說一遍，首先對產能進行投資，然後對庫存進行投資，這確實是為了改善客戶服務，對嗎？我們認為，保持這一點很重要，不僅是現在，因為現在情況比較容易，而且我們處於一個可以稱為低谷的市場週期。我們公司的考驗將在下一個上升週期，好嗎？喬，這不僅是一個上升週期，你可以模擬任何你想要的上升週期，但我們希望在最高水平上支持我們的客戶，即使這個週期看起來非常陡峭。例如，我們將 COVID 週期建模為類似的週期，這就是我們投資的動力。我認為，在這樣的時刻，領先於競爭對手為客戶提供服務非常非常重要，因為這是獲得份額的機會，我們將為這個機會做好準備。話雖如此，所有這一切都是以非常周到的方式完成的。庫存正在正確的位置建立，我們擁有這種多樣性和長壽的地位，這樣我們就不會冒庫存報廢的風險。我對我們所取得的進展感到高興，但考驗終究會到來，我相信它終有一天會在下一個上升週期到來。我不知道您是否想補充一些內容，戴夫。

I think that's good. Joe, do you have a follow-up?

我認為那很好。喬，你還有後續消息嗎？

Yes. I mean just to follow up on that, to the extent that your competition is doing things more the way they traditionally have, and probably will see boom/bust cycles, what happens in the next upturn if they can't get parts from three of your competitors? Is there a way you can keep them from accumulating inventory of TI components, even though they shouldn't need to. I mean that seems like it's part of kind of the industry behavior in the past. Just how focused are you on trying to dampen that?

是的。我的意思是，繼續問下去，如果你的競爭對手仍然按照傳統方式行事，可能會經歷繁榮/衰退的周期，如果他們無法從你的三個競爭對手那裡獲得零部件，那麼在下一次經濟好轉時會發生什麼？有沒有辦法阻止他們累積 TI 元件庫存，儘管他們不需要這樣做。我的意思是，這似乎是過去產業行為的一部分。您到底有多專注於抑制這種現象？

Again, I think our capacity and the inventory level that we have built are such that we can to provide good or very high customer service levels, right? So our intention is to maintain lead times through the cycle. It depends what cycle you throw at us. There is always going to be that one cycle or that steep cycle that maybe we won't be able to do it. But we have modeled the company in such a way that in most demand situation, we would be able to maintain a good customer -- or high customer service levels through the cycle, which hopefully will keep the lead time short and which I'm pretty sure will encourage customers not to hoard inventory. That has to be proven, but that's the way we want to prepare for the future.

再說一次，我認為我們已經建立的產能和庫存水平使我們能夠提供良好或非常高的客戶服務水平，對嗎？因此我們的目的是在整個週期內保持交貨時間。這取決於您向我們拋出什麼樣的循環。總是會有那麼一個週期或那個陡峭的週期，也許我們做不到。但我們以這樣的方式塑造了公司，在大多數需求情況下，我們都能夠在整個週期內維持良好的客戶——或者高水平的客戶服務，這有望縮短交貨時間，而且我確信這將鼓勵客戶不要囤積庫存。這還有待證明，但這正是我們為未來做準備的方式。

And just to add one thing, I'd just say that I spent eight years in sales, I joke I never once took a double order. And so trying to control customer behavior, when things get short, people want to build more inventory, right? And so that's just the behavior that I think that will be in our industry for the foreseeable future, but we can gain share in those periods of time, and that's the advantage of having the capacity in place.

另外再補充一點，我想說的是，我從事銷售工作已有八年，我開玩笑地說我從來沒有接過重複的訂單。因此，為了控制客戶行為，當貨物短缺時，人們就想增加庫存，對嗎？所以，我認為在可預見的未來，這只是我們產業中的行為，但我們可以在這段時間內獲得份額，這就是擁有現有產能的優勢。

So that said, we'll go to the next and last caller, please.

那麼，我們將接聽下一位也是最後一位來電者。

Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

克里斯‧卡索（Chris Caso），沃爾夫研究公司。

Yes, thanks. Good evening. The question is on your earlier comments on China. It sounds like that rebounded fairly robustly in the first quarter. Could you give some more color on what you were seeing within China? And then do you think -- do you feel that the Chinese customers are still burning through inventory? Are you still undershipping demand there?

是的，謝謝。晚安.問題是關於您之前對中國的評論。聽起來第一季的反彈相當強勁。您能否進一步描述一下您在中國看到的情況？那麼您是否認為—您是否覺得中國客戶仍在消耗庫存？你們的出貨量仍未滿足那裡的需求嗎？

Yes, thanks for the question. First, I would say that in China, it's -- there is a very distinct signal that customers have worked down their inventories. And we've seen that spreading through time with the market. If you think about the asynchronous behavior that we have described of the different markets, we saw the same in China. The personal electronics business peaked in China somewhere in 2021, enterprise and industrial sometime in '22 and then automotive peaked sometime in '23. So you saw that peak spread over three years, which I think is the reason we saw such elongated decline of seven quarters in a row. And we went backwards to our history, and it's been one of the longest, if not the longest, cycle we have seen. But I can see clearly that it's mainly played out. Of course, you will always find pockets and a few sectors in the industrial market that are still going through that. But it's very clear that once you start to shift to end demand, you will see such behavior of, in our case, 20% sequential growth. And that momentum is being built across the markets. All markets did very well in China, growing between 15% to 20-something percent, okay? So very robust, coherent, and that's like a recovery looks like. Now we haven't seen that across the other markets. I will even tell you that the areas like Europe and Japan are in an early phase. And hopefully, it doesn't take seven quarters per geography, but China was kind of the first into the upcycle, the beginning of COVID, the first one to correct on the down. And now, to me, the first one kind of raising a very strong sequential growth with momentum. So that's the way I would summarize it without trying to imply that we'll see the same behavior in each and every other market.

是的，謝謝你的提問。首先，我想說，在中國，有一個非常明顯的訊號表明客戶已經減少了庫存。而我們已經看到這種現象隨著市場的不斷擴大而蔓延。如果你考慮我們所描述的不同市場的異步行為，我們在中國也看到了同樣的情況。中國的個人電子業務在 2021 年左右達到頂峰，企業和工業業務在 2022 年左右達到頂峰，而汽車業務在 2023 年左右達到頂峰。所以你看到這個高峰持續了三年，我認為這就是我們連續七個季度出現如此長時間下滑的原因。回顧歷史，這是我們所見過的最長的周期之一，如果不是最長的話。但我清楚地看到，這主要已經結束了。當然，你總是會發現工業市場中的一些領域和部分產業仍然在經歷這樣的情況。但很明顯，一旦你開始轉向終端需求，你就會看到這樣的行為，在我們的例子中是 20% 的連續成長。這種勢頭正在整個市場蔓延。中國所有市場都表現很好，成長率都在15%到20%左右，好嗎？非常強勁、連貫，就像復甦的樣子。現在我們還沒有在其他市場看到這種情況。我甚至會告訴你，歐洲和日本等地區還處於早期階段。希望每個地區不需要花費七個季度的時間，但中國是第一個進入上升週期的國家，也是新冠疫情開始爆發的國家，也是第一個在下行趨勢中修正的國家。現在，對我來說，第一種是提高非常強勁的連續成長動能。這就是我的總結，但這並不意味著我們會在其他每個市場看到同樣的行為。

Do you have a follow-up, Chris?

克里斯，你還有後續問題嗎？

I do, thanks. And just a quick follow-up, and I'm sure this is another thing you'll address on the August call, but you narrowed the range for depreciation next year down a little bit. Last quarter, you talked about CapEx kind of being around this $5 million level per year. It was down sequentially in the second quarter. Is $5 billion still a reasonable way of looking at CapEx this year?

我明白，謝謝。只是一個簡短的跟進，我相信這是您在八月電話會議上會討論的另一件事，但您稍微縮小了明年折舊的範圍。上個季度，您談到資本支出大約在每年 500 萬美元左右。第二季季減。50億美元仍然是今年資本支出的合理衡量標準嗎？

Yes. There is no news here strategically, but Rafael, maybe you want to guide on CapEx?

是的。從策略角度來看這裡沒有新聞，但是拉斐爾，也許你想指導資本支出？

No, this year, $5 billion. What you saw in second quarter is just little puts and takes on a quarterly basis, but for 2024, $5 billion of CapEx, and the depreciation numbers I gave are reflective of that.

不，今年是 50 億美元。您在第二季度看到的只是季度基礎上的小額投入和支出，但對於 2024 年來說，資本支出為 50 億美元，我給出的折舊數字反映了這一點。

So let me wrap up with what we've said previously. At our core, we are engineers. Our technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objective, we'll continue to pursue our three ambitions. First, we will act like owners who will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we are personally proud to be part of and we would want as our neighbor. When we are successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit.

讓我總結一下我們之前所說的內容。從本質上來說，我們是工程師。我們的技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終，我們的目標以及衡量進度和為業主創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。在我們努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三大抱負。首先，我們要像擁有這家公司幾十年的主人一樣去行事。我們將適應不斷變化的世界並取得成功。我們將成為一家讓我們感到自豪的公司，並願意成為我們的鄰居。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和業主都會受益。

Thank you, and have a good evening.

謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

Thank you. And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束，各位現在可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。