德州儀器 (TXN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

I'm Dave Pahl, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer Haviv Ilan and our Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾(Dave Pahl)，與我一起的還有我們的首席執行官哈維夫·伊蘭(Haviv Ilan) 和財務官拉斐爾·利扎爾迪(Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This is call being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

對於錯過該發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。這是透過網路直播的通話，可以透過我們的網站存取。

In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

此外，今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將透過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings, for more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲取更完整的說明。

Today, we'll provide the following updates.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。

First, Haviv will start with a quick overview of the quarter.

首先，哈維夫將首先簡要概述本季。

Next, he'll provide insight into third quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets.

接下來，他將提供對第三季收入結果的深入了解，以及我們在終端市場方面看到的一些細節。

And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on our capital management, as well as share the guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024.

最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績、介紹我們資本管理的最新情況，並分享 2024 年第四季的指導。

With that, let me turn it over to Haviv.

那麼，讓我把它交給哈維夫。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Let me start with a quick overview of the third quarter.

讓我先快速回顧一下第三季的情況。

Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $4.2 billion, an increase of 9% sequentially and a decrease of 8% year over year.

該季度營收約 42 億美元，符合預期，季增 9%，年減 8%。

Analog revenue declined 4% year over year, and Embedded Processing declined 27%.

模擬收入年減 4%，嵌入式處理收入年減 27%。

Our “Other” segment declined 5% from the year-ago quarter.

我們的「其他」部門比去年同期下降了 5%。

Now I'll provide some insight into our third quarter revenue by end market.

現在我將按終端市場提供一些關於我們第三季收入的見解。

Our results continue to reflect the asynchronous market behavior that we've seen throughout this cycle.

我們的結果繼續反映了我們在整個週期中看到的非同步市場行為。

Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance, as it is more informative at this time.

與上季類似，我將專注於連續效能，因為此時它提供了更多資訊。

First, the industrial market was down low-single digits, as customers continued to reduce their inventory levels.

首先，由於客戶持續降低庫存水平，工業市場出現低個位數下跌。

The automotive market increased upper single digits, primarily due to strength in China.

汽車市場成長了個位數，這主要是由於中國的強勁表現。

Personal electronics grew about 30%.

個人電子產品成長約30%。

Enterprise systems was up about 20%, and communication equipment was up about 25%, as the cyclical recovery continued in these three markets.

企業系統上漲約20%，通訊設備上漲約25%，這三個市場的周期性復甦仍在持續。

With that, let me turn it over to Rafael to review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

接下來，讓我將其交給 Rafael 來審查獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Haviv, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝哈維夫，大家下午好。

As Haviv mentioned, third quarter revenue was $4.2 billion.

正如哈維夫所提到的，第三季營收為 42 億美元。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.5 billion, or 60% of revenue.

該季度毛利為 25 億美元，佔營收的 60%。

Sequentially, gross profit margin increased 180 basis points, primarily due to higher revenue.

隨後，毛利率增加了 180 個基點，主要是因為收入增加。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $920 million, about flat from a year ago and about as expected.

該季度的營運支出為 9.2 億美元，與去年同期持平，與預期基本一致。

On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion, or 24% of revenue.

過去 12 個月的營運支出為 37 億美元，佔收入的 24%。

Operating profit was $1.6 billion in the quarter, or 37% of revenue, and was down 18% from the year-ago quarter.

該季度營業利潤為 16 億美元，佔營收的 37%，比去年同期下降 18%。

Net income in the quarter was $1.4 billion, or $1.47 per share.

該季度淨利潤為 14 億美元，即每股 1.47 美元。

Earnings per share included a 3-cent benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

每股收益包括我們最初指導中未包含的項目的 3 美分福利。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金產生開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $1.7 billion in the quarter and $6.2 billion on a trailing 12-month basis.

本季營運現金流為 17 億美元，過去 12 個月營運現金流為 62 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $1.3 billion in the quarter and $4.8 billion over the last 12 months.

本季資本支出為 13 億美元，過去 12 個月資本支出為 48 億美元。

Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $1.5 billion.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 15 億美元。

As a reminder, free cash flow includes benefits from the CHIPS Act investment tax credit, which was $220 million in third quarter and $532 million on a trailing 12-month basis.

需要提醒的是，自由現金流包括《CHIPS 法案》投資稅收抵免的好處，第三季為 2.2 億美元，過去 12 個月為 5.32 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $318 million of our stock.

本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息，並回購了 3.18 億美元的股票。

In September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 5%, marking our 21st consecutive year of dividend increases.

9 月，我們宣布將股息增加 5%，這是我們連續 21 年增加股息。

This reflects our continued commitment to return free cash flow to our owners over time.

這反映了我們對隨著時間的推移向所有者返還自由現金流的持續承諾。

In total, we returned $5.2 billion to our owners in the past 12 months.

在過去 12 個月中，我們總共向所有者返還了 52 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $8.8 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第三季末現金和短期投資為 88 億美元。

Total debt outstanding is $14 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.8%.

未償還債務總額為 140 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.8%。

Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4.3 billion, up $190 million from the prior quarter, and days were 231, up two days sequentially.

季末庫存為 43 億美元，比上季增加 1.9 億美元，庫存天數為 231 天，比上一季增加兩天。

For the fourth quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.7 billion to $4 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of a $1.07 to $1.29.

我們預計 TI 第四季營收將在 37 億美元至 40 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.07 美元至 1.29 美元之間。

We continue to expect our effective tax rate to be about 13% in the fourth quarter.

我們繼續預計第四季的有效稅率約為 13%。

As you're looking at 2025, based on current tax law, we would expect our effective tax rate to remain about the same.

展望 2025 年，根據現行稅法，我們預期有效稅率將維持不變。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions.

我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續實現每股自由現金流的長期成長。

With that, let me turn back to Dave.

說到這裡，讓我回到戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open the lines for questions in order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question.

接線員，您現在可以打開提問線路，以便為盡可能多的人提供提問的機會，請限制自己只回答一個問題。

After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for a follow-up.

在我們回覆後，我們將為您提供跟進的機會。

Operator?

操作員？

Thank you again.

再次感謝您。

(Operator Instructions) Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

（操作員說明） Timothy Arcuri，UBS。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

I guess the first question is, autos grew.

我想第一個問題是，汽車的成長。

I think that was a little bit of a surprise to a lot of us.

我認為這對我們很多人來說都有點驚訝。

Can you talk about what's going on there?

你能談談那裡發生了什麼事嗎？

You did cite China, but did orders weaken late in the quarter at all?

您確實提到了中國，但本季末的訂單是否有所減弱？

I mean, we saw pretty much every automaker negative preannounce.

我的意思是，我們幾乎看到所有汽車製造商都發布了負面的預先公告。

So can you talk about maybe what you're seeing in autos and maybe if you can provide a little commentary for December, what the outlook is there.

那麼您能談談您對汽車行業的看法嗎？

Is it sort of anything you'd call out in December in terms of end markets?

就終端市場而言，您會在 12 月提出這樣的要求嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Tim, let me start with that.

提姆，讓我從這個開始。

This is Haviv.

這是哈維夫。

So regarding the automotive market, yes, it did grow.

因此，就汽車市場而言，是的，它確實成長了。

We said high-single digits, around between 7% and 8%, and that was really driven -- most of the growth came from our business in China.

我們說的是高個位數，大約在 7% 到 8% 之間，這確實是推動因素——大部分成長來自我們在中國的業務。

I think I've mentioned also in the second quarter, we saw strength in China, and automotive drove that growth as well.

我想我在第二季也提到過，我們看到了中國的實力，汽車也推動了這種成長。

It kind of recurred in the third quarter.

這種情況在第三季再次出現。

Just to give you some high-level numbers, it grew 20% in Q2 and then another 20% in Q3.

只是為了給你一些高水準的數字，它在第二季度成長了 20%，然後在第三季又成長了 20%。

I think it's not a surprise that there is momentum for EVs in China.

我認為電動車在中國的發展勢頭並不令人意外。

Our content is growing there, and that's what really drove the growth in the third quarter.

我們的內容正在那裡增長，這才是第三季成長的真正推動力。

I expect that to -- I mean that I think this is not a one quarter thing.

我希望——我的意思是，我認為這不是四分之一的事情。

I think there is a growing momentum there.

我認為那裡的勢頭正在增長。

Our automotive revenue in China is in a -- in an all new time high.

我們在中國的汽車收入創下歷史新高。

So I don't think that goes down in the near future.

所以我認為這種情況在不久的將來不會下降。

Now, the rest of the automotive market is different, okay.

現在，汽車市場的其他部分已經不同了，好吧。

We are seeing a continued weakness over there.

我們看到那裡持續疲軟。

That revenue peaked in the third quarter of '23, and in general trended down.

該收入在 20 年第三季達到頂峰，隨後總體呈下降趨勢。

If I put China aside, I said a quick correction in Q1 -- Q4 and Q1, the rest of the market, I see a continued weakness.

如果我把中國放在一邊，我會說第一季、第四季和第一季的快速調整，而其他市場則持續疲軟。

I think that's part of our, call it, seasonal forecast for Q4.

我認為這是我們第四季季節性預測的一部分。

Rafael, so if I look at the guidance, OpEx is usually I think down low to mid-single digits for December.

拉斐爾，所以如果我看一下指導，我認為 12 月的營運支出通常會下降到個位數中低。

So if you assume even down mid singles, you get gross margin sort of in the mid-50s.

因此，如果你假設即使是中單打，你的毛利率也會在 50 多歲左右。

It's down like 200 basis points, stripping out deep depreciation.

剔除大幅貶值後，匯率下跌了約 200 個基點。

So that's a pretty big decline.

所以這是一個相當大的下降。

So I guess you're taking down loadings in December.

所以我猜你會在 12 月減少負載。

I do see that finished goods was up a lot.

我確實看到成品上漲了很多。

So, if you can talk about that.

那麼，如果你能談談這個問題的話。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, a couple of things in your question, so let me try to address them.

是的，您的問題涉及一些問題，所以讓我嘗試解決它們。

OpEx, nothing unusual, but we do probably expect it to be flat to slightly up, so consider that.

營運支出，沒什麼不尋常的，但我們確實可能會預期它會持平或略有上升，所以請考慮這一點。

As far as the fourth quarter with revenue at the midpoint decreasing, that takes a hit on margins of course.

就第四季而言，營收中點下降，當然會影響利潤率。

So we would expect gross margins to be down.

因此，我們預計毛利率將會下降。

Also, depreciation will continue to increase.

此外，折舊將繼續增加。

And in fact, in October, we began depreciating the building and the clean room for SM1.

事實上，從 10 月起，我們就開始對 SM1 的大樓和無塵室進行折舊。

So that continues to put -- that's going to put even more upward pressure on depreciation in fourth quarter.

因此，這種情況持續下去，將給第四季的貶值帶來更大的上行壓力。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Securities.

Vivek Arya，美國銀行證券公司。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Haviv, you -- so first, thanks for providing the end market commentary.

Haviv，您—首先，感謝您提供終端市場評論。

I think you mentioned personal electronic demand went up I think 30% sequentially is what I recall; it was up mid-teens in Q2 also.

我想你提到個人電子需求上升了，我記得我想連續成長了 30%；第二季也上漲了十幾歲。

How do we square your strength in personal electronics with the more kind of sluggish demand that we see for PCs and phones?

我們如何將您在個人電子產品領域的優勢與我們看到的個人電腦和手機需求疲軟結合在一起？

Is it something outside of those areas, or are those areas doing better?

是這些領域以外的問題，還是這些領域做得更好？

Just what do you attribute the strength in personal electronics, or you think the market just kind of bottomed from a cyclical perspective?

您將個人電子產品的強勢歸因於什麼，或者您認為從週期性角度來看市場剛剛觸底？

Yeah, I think that's a great question.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的問題。

Let me just walk through what we've seen over the last even couple of years.

讓我簡單回顧一下我們在過去幾年所看到的情況。

So I mean that revenue in the personal electronics market, it peaked in the third quarter of 2021.

所以我的意思是個人電子市場的收入在 2021 年第三季達到高峰。

By the way, the third quarter is typically our peak quarter every year; there is a seasonality strength every third quarter for PE.

順便說一句，第三季通常是我們每年的高峰； PE 每第三季都會出現季節性強勢。

And it dropped in the first quarter of '23.

23 年第一季有所下降。

And since then, we have seen a continuous improvement, but I will say, Vivek, when I look at our third quarter of '24, it's still running at a lower level than the peak.

從那時起，我們看到了持續的進步，但我要說的是，Vivek，當我查看 24 年第三季時，它仍然運行在低於峰值的水平。

It's running about 20% lower than the ‘21 peak.

它比 21 日的峰值低約 20%。

So there is still room to grow.

所以仍有成長的空間。

And in our case, as I think I've mentioned in some of the calls, when we were short with supply capacity back in '21, '22, we had to take some calls, where it was to bias our supply towards industrial and automotive.

就我們的情況而言，正如我在一些電話中提到的那樣，當我們在 21 年、22 年供應能力不足時，我們不得不接聽一些電話，將我們的供應偏向工業和汽車。

The personal electronics has a shorter design cycle.

個人電子產品的設計週期較短。

We said we'll go attack that once the capacity and inventory are back in place.

我們說過，一旦產能和庫存恢復到位，我們就會著手解決這個問題。

That's the case right now.

現在就是這樣。

So I think we are coming off of a very low drop, plus again having the right parts to go back and win sockets that we couldn't sell before.

因此，我認為我們的跌幅非常低，而且再次擁有合適的零件來贏得我們以前無法出售的插座。

So that's what I'm seeing right now.

這就是我現在所看到的。

In terms of specifically into the third quarter, I think growth was across all the sectors or most of the sectors.

具體到第三季度，我認為所有行業或大部分行業都在成長。

The main ones are phones and notebook PCs.

主要是手機和筆記型電腦。

But in general, the third quarter, as I've said, is a typical strong quarter for PE.

但總的來說，正如我所說，第三季是私募股權產業典型的強勁季度。

So a bigger picture question, Haviv, is on -- in the last few calls, there's been a suggestion that perhaps by calendar '26, TI will conceptually be close, if not more than what you were in calendar '22.

因此，哈維夫（Haviv）是一個更大的問題——在最近的幾次電話會議中，有人建議，也許到 26 日曆年，TI 在概念上將接近，如果不超過 22 日曆年的話。

And people have kind of rightly then pushed back and said, well, that requires mid-teens sales growth in the next two years, you know, well above the trend line.

人們正確地反駁說，好吧，這需要未來兩年的銷售成長達到十幾歲左右，遠高於趨勢線。

At what point do you think you will start to see those above seasonal quarters to help us get to that above trend growth for the next two years?

您認為什麼時候您將開始看到高於季節性季度的成長，以幫助我們在未來兩年實現高於趨勢的成長？

So I understand you're not giving guidance, but what are you seeing in the broader end markets?

所以我知道您沒有提供指導，但您在更廣泛的終端市場中看到了什麼？

And do you think TI is at a point where those kinds of above seasonal quarters are line of sight, or is it too early to make that judgment?

您認為 TI 是否正處於這樣一個階段：這些季節性以上的季度已經成為人們關注的焦點，還是說現在做出這樣的判斷還為時過早？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, first, just to recap on your question, Vivek.

是的，首先，回顧一下你的問題，Vivek。

Thanks that the -- I think you're referring to our capital management call we had in August.

謝謝——我想你指的是我們八月舉行的資本管理電話會議。

So I just would ask people to look at what exactly we presented there.

所以我只是想請人們看看我們到底展示了什麼。

I think you refer to a 2026 scenario, a set of scenarios that we've presented there, from flat to growth versus 2018.

我認為您指的是 2026 年情景，這是我們在那裡提出的一組情景，與 2018 年相比，從持平到增長。

And we didn't say we are predicting what revenue would be, but it allows the investors to kind of have a view on free cash flow per share according to the revenue scenario.

我們並沒有說我們正在預測收入是多少，但它允許投資者根據收入狀況對每股自由現金流有一個看法。

And I think it allows you guys to modulate up or down revenue and know what free cash flow will do during that year.

我認為它可以讓你們調整收入，並了解自由現金流在那一年會做什麼。

Now, more specifically to your question, look, we talked about three markets that are already in the midst of a cyclical recovery.

現在，更具體地回答你的問題，我們討論了已經處於週期性復甦之中的三個市場。

I think they are not done yet, but they are pointing in the right direction.

我認為他們還沒有完成，但他們指出了正確的方向。

That's personal electronics, enterprise systems and communication system, for us, coming from a very low trough but showing momentum, and I think that we are in the process of strengthening.

對我們來說，個人電子產品、企業系統和通訊系統正處於一個非常低的低谷，但顯示出勢頭，我認為我們正在加強。

Unfortunately, these markets were about 25% of our revenue in '23, and in our case, we really need the broad industrial market and the automotive market to join.

不幸的是，這些市場約占我們 23 年收入的 25%，就我們而言，我們確實需要廣泛的工業市場和汽車市場的加入。

Okay.

好的。

So if I go to industrial first, revenue peaked in the third quarter of '22.

因此，如果我首先考慮工業領域，收入在 22 年第三季達到頂峰。

We've seen eight quarters of decline.

我們已經看到了八個季度的下降。

We are more than 30% down versus the peak.

與高峰相比，我們下降了 30% 以上。

So I don't think we -- I hope -- I can't predict it -- I don't think we have a lot left.

所以我不認為我們——我希望——我無法預測——我認為我們已經沒有太多了。

Okay.

好的。

I think that the inventory correction is still ongoing, but I do expect that to start to recover.

我認為庫存調整仍在繼續，但我確實預計庫存將開始復甦。

I cannot predict a quarter, because usually when we see it, we call it.

我無法預測季度，因為通常當我們看到它時，我們稱之為它。

I will just say we haven't seen it yet, and it's been quite persistent.

我只想說我們還沒看到它，而且它非常持久。

Okay.

好的。

That's on the industrial side.

這是在工業方面。

And I can go even into the sectors.

我甚至可以進入各個領域。

Most of the sectors are showing either still searching for a bottom or hovering at a very low level.

大多數板塊要么仍在探底，要么徘徊在非常低的水平。

Okay.

好的。

So it's about time, but we haven't seen it yet.

所以是時候了，但我們還沒有看到。

On the automotive market, I think it's more complex, because this is where we see a different story between China and the rest of the market.

在汽車市場上，我認為情況更加複雜，因為這是我們看到中國與其他市場不同的故事的地方。

Unfortunately, China is about 20% of our business, so it cannot move the overall automotive number for the company.

不幸的是，中國市場約占我們業務的 20%，因此無法帶動公司整體汽車業務的成長。

But I think as I mentioned before, we are right now at the lower-single digit versus the peak, kind of hovering in that minus – sorry, it's not lower-single digit, but I would say upper-single digit, but somewhere between 5% to 10% versus the peak on automotive.

但我認為，正如我之前提到的，我們現在處於較低個位數與峰值之間，有點徘徊在負數中——抱歉，這不是較低個位數，但我會說較高個位數，但與汽車行業的峰值相比，下降了 5% 到 10% 之間。

In China, we have new records being established, and I think there is momentum over there.

在中國，我們正在創造新的紀錄，我認為那裡有動力。

But the other markets -- or the other geographies on automotive are still searching for that bottom.

但其他市場或汽車領域的其他地區仍在尋找底部。

I do expect when it all adds up, automotive will establish a lower peak-to-trough cycle, not close to the industrial side, but I can't give you a precise time for that, Vivek.

我確實預計，當這一切加起來時，汽車將建立一個較低的峰谷週期，不接近工業方面，但我無法給你一個準確的時間，Vivek。

CJ Muse, Cantor.

CJ繆斯，康托爾。

Yeah.

是的。

Good afternoon, thank you for taking the question.

下午好，感謝您提出問題。

I guess, first question, bigger picture, I guess given the cyclical uncertainty, how are you thinking about kind of running utilization rates into Q4, first half of '25?

我想，第一個問題，更大的前景，我想考慮到週期性的不確定性，您如何考慮25年上半年第四季的使用率？

And as part of that, with inventory at $4.3 billion, are you looking to continue to grow that and elevate utilization or keep it where it is until you really see signs of that cyclical recovery?

作為其中的一部分，庫存為 43 億美元，您是否希望繼續增加庫存並提高利用率，或保持現狀，直到您真正看到週期性復甦的跡象？

Would love to hear your thoughts there.

很想聽聽您的想法。

Yeah, no, happy to do that.

是的，不，很高興這樣做。

So first a bigger picture, and then I'll get into maybe some specifics, but the objective for inventory is to support revenue growth as we prepare for the upturn, as Haviv described in our expectations going forward, particularly in 2025.

因此，首先是一個更大的藍圖，然後我可能會討論一些具體細節，但庫存的目標是在我們為經濟好轉做準備時支持收入成長，正如哈維夫在我們的未來預期中所描述的那樣，特別是2025 年。

We do expect to grow inventory in fourth quarter.

我們確實預計第四季度庫存會增加。

So we grew a couple of hundred million in third quarter.

所以我們在第三季成長了數億。

We expect probably a few hundred million of inventory growth again in fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季庫存可能會再次成長數億。

But that is -- we have moderated the factory loadings.

但那就是──我們已經調節了工廠的負荷。

So factory loadings, I expect those to go slightly down going into fourth quarter.

因此，我預計工廠負載在進入第四季時將略有下降。

But despite that, we’ll still grow additional inventory.

但儘管如此，我們仍會增加庫存。

Just to comment a little more on the inventory, we have detailed plans by device at the finished goods level, at the chips level, and those plans are grounded on purchasing behavior and expected demand.

只是對庫存進行更多評論，我們在成品級別、晶片級別按設備制定了詳細計劃，這些計劃基於購買行為和預期需求。

And this inventory is very low risk.

而且這個庫存風險很低。

It sells to many, many customers, and it has a long-life cycle.

它銷售給很多很多客戶，生命週期很長。

So, we feel really good, really good about that.

所以，我們對此感覺非常好。

I do.

我願意。

I would hope to follow up on auto.

我希望跟進汽車。

You talked about that as a surprise in China.

你說這對中國來說是個驚喜。

I'm curious if you could speak to Chinese OEMs taking share in Europe.

我很好奇您能否與在歐洲佔據份額的中國整車廠談談。

That's something that, that we've kind of picked up and curious perhaps maybe the data points we're picking up in Europe, related a little more to share loss there to some of the Chinese OEMs.

我們在歐洲收集到的數據點可能與一些中國原始設備製造商的份額損失有更多的相關性。

Are you seeing that?

你看到了嗎？

First, no surprise, I think not a surprise, because we've seen that trend starting in Q2.

首先，這並不奇怪，我認為這並不奇怪，因為我們已經看到這種趨勢從第二季開始。

So, to me, the automotive market in China for TI, it, again, peaked in that end of '23, call it second half of '23.

因此，對我來說，TI 在中國的汽車市場再次在 23 年底達到頂峰，稱之為 23 下半年。

We saw a very sharp correction in Q1.

我們在第一季看到了非常急劇的調整。

I think it was mainly inventory correction.

我認為主要是庫存調整。

And then growth in Q2, growth in Q3.

然後是第二季的成長、第三季的成長。

It's 20% on top of 20%.

這是20%之上的20%。

So think about it running at 45% of the trough and, again, a new peak.

因此，想像一下它運行在谷底的 45% 處，然後再次出現一個新的峰值。

I think that is mainly driven by the China market, right?

我認為這主要是由中國市場推動的，對嗎？

If you think about -- I'm just there, a couple of months ago.

如果你想一想──幾個月前我就在那裡。

Most of the new car, I think now majority of new cars are EVs, right?

大多數新車，我想現在大多數新車都是電動車，對吧？

Or some sort of hybrid.

或某種混合體。

And these tend to have more, more content.

而這些往往有越來越多的內容。

And again, our position there is good.

再說一次，我們在那裡的地位很好。

TI is very competitive.

TI 的競爭力非常強。

So I think that drives growth.

所以我認為這會推動成長。

Now, our customer base in China is a set of OEMs, but also Tier 1s.

現在，我們在中國的客戶群是整車廠，也是一級供應商。

And you guys know the OEM share, and you are the experts there.

你們知道 OEM 份額，而且你們是那裡的專家。

But the Tier 1s are also -- I think are -- they are -- they can build good systems.

但一級供應商也——我認為是——他們可以建立良好的系統。

They are very efficient in cost.

它們在成本方面非常有效。

Performance is pretty good.

性能相當不錯。

So I think they also compete for market share versus the worldwide Tier 1s.

因此，我認為他們也與全球一級供應商爭奪市場份額。

And I think that's part of the dynamics we see in the China market.

我認為這是我們在中國市場看到的動態的一部分。

We see momentum on both.

我們都看到了兩者的勢頭。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

羅斯·西莫爾，德意志銀行。

Hi guys, thanks for letting me ask a question.

大家好，謝謝你讓我問一個問題。

Haviv, you talked a couple of times about China going up 20% sequentially two quarters in a row.

Haviv，您多次談到中國連續兩季成長 20%。

Is there any reason that the other 80% of the business shouldn't have that sort of a cyclical rebound at some point?

是否有任何理由認為其他 80% 的業務在某個時候不應該出現這種週期性反彈？

Is there something that's unique about China that allows it to be more volatile, or is the expectation that you would have that the other 80% of your business at some point in time should do the same thing?

中國是否有什麼獨特之處導致其波動性更大，或者您期望您的其他 80% 的業務在某個時間點也應該做同樣的事情？

First, I think at some point of time, all the horses will point in the same direction, and we all are waiting for that.

首先，我認為在某個時間點，所有的馬都會指向同一個方向，我們都在等待這一點。

It's been a while, but I think that happens.

已經有一段時間了，但我認為這種情況發生了。

Again, this asynchronous behavior, it’s so clear for us -- to us.

同樣，這種異步行為對我們來說非常清楚。

And you can see an opposite behavior between geographies, between markets.

你可以看到不同地區、不同市場之間的相反行為。

I will say that, again as we talked about in the previous response, my previous answer, there is a stronger EV momentum in China.

我要說的是，正如我們在先前的回應中談到的，我之前的回答，中國的電動車勢頭更強勁。

On top of it, I think the China, call it, culture, call it, environment is the design cycles are quick, inventory corrections are quick.

最重要的是，我認為中國的環境是設計週期很快，庫存調整也很快。

So there is a little bit of everything is more accelerated, I would say over there.

所以我想說的是，一切都在加速。

And I think that's why we're seeing shorter cycles in terms of the way up, the way down.

我認為這就是為什麼我們看到上升和下降週期較短的原因。

That is, would be my guess.

也就是說，這是我的猜測。

But I think we'll all be able -- we'll be smarter only when that thing is done or played out completely.

但我認為我們都能夠——只有當這件事完成或完全完成時，我們才會變得更聰明。

All I can say that I've not seen it played out completely on the automotive market outside of China.

我只能說，我還沒有看到它在中國以外的汽車市場上完全發揮作用。

But I don't think, again, I don't think the peak-to-trough on the automotive market is going to be as pronounced as industrial, simply because the secular growth over there, I believe, is stronger in the short term.

但我不認為汽車市場的高峰到低谷會像工業市場那麼明顯，只是因為我相信那裡的長期成長在短期內更為強勁。

Yeah, I do one for Rafael.

是的，我為拉斐爾做了一個。

On the OpEx side of things.

在營運支出方面。

Just a conceptual question as we look into 2025, kind of what would be the puts and takes on OpEx?

當我們展望 2025 年時，這只是一個概念性問題，即營運支出的看跌期權和承付金額是多少？

And I guess the punch line is you guys have kept OpEx in certain periods of time barely growing year over year, and other years inflation has been something you guys have had to endure as well.

我想最有趣的是你們在某些時期讓營運支出幾乎沒有逐年成長，而在其他年份你們也得忍受通貨膨脹。

So how do we think about OpEx kind of structurally in 2025?

那我們要如何從結構上考慮 2025 年的營運支出呢？

Yeah, in fact, for 2025 and beyond, the way to think about it is we continue to have a disciplined process, as you alluded to, on our investments and our OpEx.

是的，事實上，對於 2025 年及以後，我們的思考方式是，正如您所提到的，我們在投資和營運支出方面繼續採用嚴格的流程。

But when it comes to R&D, we'll continue to invest there, so you'll see our investments grow over time and continue to grow.

但在研發方面，我們將繼續在那裡投資，所以你會看到我們的投資隨著時間的推移而成長，並持續成長。

Whereas in SG&A, the focus there is efficiency.

而在 SG&A 中，重點在於效率。

So continue to drive efficiency.

因此，繼續提高效率。

So there the -- it'll probably grow but at a much lower pace than R&D.

因此，它可能會成長，但速度遠低於研發速度。

And of course, revenue, the goal is for both of those to be under the revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

當然，在收入方面，我們的目標是在可預見的未來，這兩家公司的收入都保持成長。

Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein Research.

史黛西‧拉斯貢，伯恩斯坦研究中心。

Hi guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I wanted to drill a little bit more into that China strength.

我想進一步深入了解中國的實力。

So you're seeing it in auto?

所以你在汽車上看到了它？

Are you seeing any signs of like China strength in analog or anywhere else in any other end market?

您是否在模擬領域或其他終端市場的其他地方看到了類似中國實力的跡象？

Is it just completely focused on automotive at this point?

目前它是否完全專注於汽車領域？

And I guess, what I'm getting at is I'm trying to judge the propensity of some of the Chinese guys maybe to be buying more.

我想，我的意思是我試著判斷一些中國人可能會購買更多商品的傾向。

We've got an election coming up.

我們即將舉行選舉。

Nobody exactly knows what's going on with the general geopolitical environment.

沒有人確切知道總體地緣政治環境發生了什麼事。

Just what do you see more broadly in China, both in and outside of auto?

您對中國汽車內外的更廣泛的情況有何看法？

Yes, Stacy, I can tell you what we see.

是的，史黛西，我可以告訴你我們看到了什麼。

And again, I -- it's hard to speculate beyond what we see.

再說一次，我——很難根據我們所看到的情況進行推測。

But in general, just a reminder in, as I said, during the upcycle, we had to buy us our supply into the industrial and automotive market.

但總的來說，正如我所說，在升級週期期間，我們必須向工業和汽車市場購買供應。

Okay.

好的。

So clearly the -- and I think we said the company was at about 75% in industrial and automotive in 2023.

很明顯，我想我們說過，到 2023 年，該公司在工業和汽車領域的比例約為 75%。

China was similar, maybe even higher, because we had to take some calls on the consumer, or PE, side.

中國的情況類似，甚至可能更高，因為我們必須接聽消費者或私募股權方面的一些電話。

So just to know where we're starting from.

所以只是想知道我們從哪裡開始。

So in automotive, I think is, as I said before, I can't tell you the reason for that.

所以在汽車領域，我認為，正如我之前所說，我無法告訴你其中的原因。

But I think part of it is the -- I think the China customers are fast-moving.

但我認為部分原因是——我認為中國客戶的發展速度很快。

I think they are gaining momentum worldwide, not only in China.

我認為它們在全世界範圍內都在成長勢頭，而不僅僅是在中國。

The second thing is I think it's acceptance of EVs in China, and there may be some other reasons as you have mentioned, but we have not seen a clear evidence for that.

第二件事是我認為中國對電動車的接受程度，可能還有你提到的其他一些原因，但我們還沒有看到明確的證據。

Okay.

好的。

Or for a very large inventory buildup or anything like that.

或對於非常大的庫存累積或類似的事情。

That's on your direct question on automotive.

這是你關於汽車的直接問題。

On the industrial side, we have not seen China recovering from the cycle yet.

在工業方面，我們還沒有看到中國從週期中復甦。

So we, again, we -- it has peaked somewhere in 2022, in China included.

因此，我們再次強調，它已在 2022 年某個時候達到頂峰，包括中國。

And since then, it had a little bit of a sequential growth in Q2, but then it went down again in Q3.

從那時起，它在第二季度出現了一些連續增長，但隨後在第三季度再次下降。

So kind of hovering at the bottom.

就這樣徘徊在底部。

That's the way I would describe it.

我就是這樣描述它的。

So we are waiting for that to happen.

所以我們正在等待這種情況的發生。

We have seen a very strong recovery in automotive, actually with a new high, but the industrial numbers are still trending about 40% or so, it may be even higher in China versus the peak.

我們看到汽車產業非常強勁的復甦，實際上達到了新高，但工業數據仍呈現 40% 左右的趨勢，在中國可能比高峰更高。

So a lot of work for us to do in China.

我們在中國還有很多工作要做。

I don't think -- I think it's just, I think customers, as I said in my prepared remarks, are still working through some inventory over there on the industrial side.

我不認為——我認為這只是，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我認為客戶仍在處理工業方面的一些庫存。

And maybe just to add one thing.

也許只是添加一件事。

When you look at, Stacy, the other three markets that are cyclically recovering, personal electronics, comms and [enterprise] (corrected by company after the call), all of the regions are growing and contributing to that.

Stacy，當你看看其他三個正在週期性復甦的市場，個人電子產品、通訊和[企業]（在電話會議後由公司更正）時，所有地區都在增長並為此做出了貢獻。

Yeah, and China included, right.

是的，包括中國，對吧。

But again, off of a very low number if you will in 2023.

但同樣，如果你願意的話，到 2023 年，這個數字會非常低。

I do.

我願意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I know you guys don't guide two quarters ahead, but just mathematically, we've been sort of looking at performance versus normal seasonality.

我知道你們不會預測未來兩個季度的情況，但從數學上來說，我們一直在比較業績與正常季節性的比較。

How would you guys define typical seasonality for Q1?

你們如何定義第一季的典型季節性？

And, maybe like, what is it over the last several years?

也許，過去幾年發生了什麼事？

And how would you define it like, versus like pre-COVID levels?

與新冠疫情之前的水平相比，您如何定義它？

So maybe I'll talk about Q4, Stacy, and some people -- it depends how you define seasonality.

所以也許我會談論第四季、史黛西和一些人——這取決於你如何定義季節性。

I like the way you do it.

我喜歡你做事的方式。

You kind of need to take the outliers away, and I think 2020 and 2021 were the outliers during the upcycle.

你需要剔除異常值，我認為 2020 年和 2021 年是升級週期中的異常值。

And typically in the fourth quarter, we see kind of a minus 7% to even sometimes close to minus 10%.

通常在第四季度，我們會看到負 7%，有時甚至接近負 10%。

Dave, the Q1 ones, can you add the what are…?

戴夫，Q1 的那些人，你能加一下什麼是…嗎？

Yeah, it's more -- it's usually more flat, it's more flattish, maybe down a little bit.

是的，它更多——通常更平坦，更平坦，也許向下一點。

But fourth quarter and first quarter definitely are seasonally weaker quarters.

但第四季和第一季絕對是季節性疲軟的季度。

The second and third are obviously the stronger quarters.

第二和第三顯然是更強的季度。

Thomas O'Malley, Barclays.

托馬斯·奧馬利，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, thanks for taking the question.

嘿，謝謝你提出問題。

Haviv, I just wanted to clarify some comments you made in the preamble.

哈維夫，我只是想澄清你在序言中提出的一些評論。

You kind of talked about the three markets enterprise, PE and comms still correcting but showing momentum.

您談到了企業、私募股權和通訊這三個市場仍在調整，但顯示出勢頭。

So not finished but showing some progress.

所以還沒有完成，但顯示出一些進展。

Are those still sequentially declining, or are one or two of those actually coming off of the bottom and improving?

這些是否仍在連續下降，或者其中一兩個實際上已經走出谷底並有所改善？

No, I think all three are sequentially growing in a fast pace.

不，我認為這三者都在快速成長。

So I think that, just to repeat the numbers, I think PE grew 30% sequentially, and enterprise grew 20% sequentially, and comms grew 25% sequentially.

因此，我認為，只是重複這些數字，我認為 PE 連續成長了 30%，企業連續成長了 20%，通訊連續成長了 25%。

My point is that they are still not at the previous peak.

我的觀點是，他們還沒有達到之前的高峰。

Okay.

好的。

So to me, when I think about the momentum, I think -- I expect momentum to continue to build.

所以對我來說，當我想到勢頭時，我想——我預計勢頭會繼續增強。

I think we are still running below the previous peak that was somewhere in the year 2022.

我認為我們仍低於 2022 年某個時間的上一個峰值。

And I expect that momentum to continue.

我預計這種勢頭將繼續下去。

I think also, as I mentioned before, specifically for TI these are the markets where we were in some cases short in the previous upcycle.

我還認為，正如我之前提到的，特別是對於 TI 來說，這些市場是我們在上一個上升週期中在某些情況下做空的市場。

And it's our job to go back and address these sockets now, when we have enough supply and inventory.

當我們有足夠的供應和庫存時，我們現在的工作就是回去解決這些插座問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for clarifying.

謝謝你的澄清。

And then just broadly kind of during the pandemic, you saw a lot of growth, and I think most of your peers and yourself started being more vocal about describing both auto and industrial as double-digit growers.

然後，在大流行期間，您看到了很大的增長，我認為您的大多數同行和您自己開始更加直言不諱地將汽車和工業描述為兩位數的增長者。

So as this kind of correction continues, you're seeing the strength from China in your auto business, and obviously that's a part of the broader business and contributes to that double-digit growth.

因此，隨著這種調整的繼續，您會看到中國汽車業務的實力，顯然這是更廣泛業務的一部分，並為兩位數的成長做出了貢獻。

But, looking back now, and as you see the recovery, would you think any differently about the growth profiles of those two businesses?

但是，現在回想起來，當您看到復甦時，您對這兩家企業的成長狀況會有什麼不同的看法嗎？

You obviously have your competitors coming up in a couple weeks, kind of going to restate their long-term CAGRs as well.

顯然，幾週後你的競爭對手就會出現，他們也會重申他們的長期複合年增長率。

Do you still see that double-digit growth profile as the right way to look at those two businesses?

您仍然認為兩位數的成長是看待這兩項業務的正確方式嗎？

Ya, and again, the short answer is yes, I see the same.

是的，再說一次，簡短的答案是肯定的，我也這麼認為。

I will say that it's – even the current cycle on the automotive side is proving it.

我想說的是——甚至汽車領域當前的周期也證明了這一點。

And I think we will all see that in the short term.

我認為我們都會在短期內看到這一點。

And I talk about short term as five to 10 years.

我所說的短期是五到十年。

I think the growth in industrial is multidecades.

我認為工業的成長是幾十年的。

I think we are on this in some of the, call it, sectors in industrial.

我認為我們在某些​​工業領域正在解決這個問題。

We're only in the very beginning or early innings.

我們還處於剛開始或早期幾局的階段。

So I think the industrial -- and I don't know if we say double digits, but I think TI grew 10% in the last decade, 2013 to 2023.

所以我認為工業——我不知道我們是否說兩位數，但我認為 TI 在過去十年（2013 年至 2023 年）增長了 10%。

I think the market may be a little bit lower than that, I would guess, but call it high-single to maybe 10% would be a good guess.

我認為市場可能會比這個數字低一點，但我認為將其稱為“高單”，也許 10% 是一個不錯的猜測。

I think the automotive market for TI and also for the market grew faster.

我認為 TI 的汽車市場以及整個市場成長得更快。

But I think it's going to be -- I don't think it's going to run multiple decades.

但我認為它不會持續幾十年。

Okay.

好的。

At a certain point of time there is going to be kind of some sort of saturation in terms of content per vehicle.

在某個時間點，每輛車的內容物將會出現某種程度的飽和。

I don't think we are close to that date now, specifically not in this decade.

我認為我們現在還沒有接近這個日期，特別是在這十年內。

Hopefully, that helps.

希望這會有所幫助。

Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wonder if you could help characterize industrial, and I know you've talked about the various subsegments underneath of that, but is that -- is there an inventory correction that's uniform?

我想知道你是否可以幫助描述工業的特徵，我知道你已經討論過工業的各個細分市場，但是，是否存在統一的庫存修正？

Are there areas of strength and just any sense of inventory versus demand issues that are kind of dragging that business down?

是否有一些優勢領域以及庫存與需求問題的關係會拖累該業務？

Yeah, Joe. Great question.

是的，喬。很好的問題。

I mean, I think we have more than 10 sectors, about 12 sectors in industrial, and the overall, they all add up to a continuous decline since the third quarter of 2022.

我的意思是，我認為我們有超過 10 個行業，大約有 12 個工業行業，總體而言，它們加起來自 2022 年第三季以來一直在持續下降。

So it's the eighth quarter of decline.

這是第八個季度的下降。

We are seeing most of the sectors I would characterize, have found the bottom but are kind of hovering at that bottom.

我們看到我所描述的大多數行業都已觸底，但仍徘徊在底部。

Okay.

好的。

And, think about areas for us like building automation, the energy infrastructure, medical kind of hovering at that bottom.

而且，想想我們的樓宇自動化、能源基礎設施、醫療等徘徊在底部的領域。

On factory automation, we are seeing -- and it's a large sector for us.

在工廠自動化方面，我們看到了——這對我們來說是一個很大的領域。

You can think about factory automation and motor drive.

您可以考慮工廠自動化和電機驅動。

It's all this process and factory automation type of plants.

這都是流程和工廠自動化類型的工廠。

We are still seeing a decline.

我們仍然看到下降。

So they have not found a bottom.

所以他們還沒有找到底部。

And then you see a couple of strength areas, appliances.

然後你會看到一些優勢領域，電器。

Some people don't have it in the industrial.

有些人在工業界沒有這種能力。

We do.

我們做到了。

Appliances declined very early, and we've seen some recovery there.

家電很早就開始下滑，但我們已經看到了一些復甦。

And I would also add, in our case, we have power delivery.

我還要補充一點，就我們而言，我們有電力輸送。

Think about it.

想一想。

The main market is server, right.

主要市場是伺服器，對吧。

So that sits at the bottom of a rack.

所以它位於機架的底部。

So we see growth over there, but these are the only two out of 12.

所以我們看到了那裡的成長，但這是 12 個國家中僅有的兩個。

So overall weakness in the industrial market.

因此工業市場整體疲軟。

Hopefully that provides more color.

希望這能提供更多的色彩。

Yeah, I do.

是的，我願意。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

In terms of analog versus embedded, there's a, that's been happening for a while, that Embedded has underperformed and there's a focus on kind of turning that around, around a narrower focus area.

就模擬與嵌入式而言，嵌入式的表現不佳已經有一段時間了，人們的注意力集中在圍繞著更窄的關注領域扭轉這種局面。

I wonder if you could just characterize what's different about the Embedded market on a sequential basis that it's weaker?

我想知道您是否可以按順序描述嵌入式市場的不同之處，即它較弱？

Yeah, I'll start strategically, I, we are very pleased with the progress we are seeing in Embedded.

是的，我將從策略上開始，我們對嵌入式領域所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

Embedded is more, think about its higher AUPs and more visibility, I would say, on design-ins.

嵌入式更多，想想它更高的 AUP 和更多的可見性，我想說，在設計中。

It's less broad.

它的範圍較小。

So when we look at the progress, when we look at momentum with customers, I think it's -- we are excited about the future.

因此，當我們看到進展時，當我們看到客戶的動力時，我認為我們對未來感到興奮。

And they are going through a cyclical process exactly like the Analog team has done, but they are kind of a year later.

他們正在經歷一個循環過程，就像 Analog 團隊所做的那樣，但他們是在一年後。

So again, Embedded is almost 95% industrial and automotive.

再說一次，嵌入式幾乎 95% 都是工業和汽車領域。

They've seen growth in 2023 versus the industrial business -- versus the Analog business that declined double digits.

與工業業務相比，他們在 2023 年實現了成長，而模擬業務則出現了兩位數的下降。

So they started almost a year after Analog, think about kind of middle of 2023.

所以他們在 Analog 之後幾乎一年就開始了，想想 2023 年中期吧。

We've seen four quarters.

我們已經看到了四個季度。

I think they're also looking at a seasonal quarter in Q4.

我認為他們也在考慮第四季的季節性。

But the momentum there is strong, and I'm excited about the future there.

但那裡的勢頭強勁，我對那裡的未來感到興奮。

William Stein, True Securities.

威廉·斯坦，True Securities。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I think earlier in the call, the question was asked.

我想在通話的早些時候，就有人提出了這個問題。

Haviv, you answered it for one or two end markets, but I'm hoping you can talk about how the pacing of orders progressed in the last couple of months.

Haviv，您回答了一兩個終端市場的問題，但我希望您能談談過去幾個月訂單節奏的進展。

I wonder if you might have seen things accelerate to then only re-decelerate, if there's been any sort of ups and downs that have surprised you.

我想知道你是否可能看到事情加速然後又減速，是否有任何讓你驚訝的起伏。

And then I have a follow up, please.

然後我有一個後續行動，請。

Yeah, I think we, what I said about the third quarter, I think you -- think about it as not a lot of change that I see right now going into the fourth, but there is -- it's Q4, right?

是的，我認為我們，我所說的第三季度，我認為你認為我現在看到的第四季度沒有太多變化，但有 - 這是第四季度，對吧？

So there is a seasonality effect.

所以存在季節性效應。

In that sense, I don't see any change versus what we've seen in Q3.

從這個意義上說，我認為與第三季相比沒有任何變化。

If we have -- if we would see something, I would call it out, but I cannot call out anything.

如果我們有——如果我們能看到什麼，我會大聲喊出來，但我不能喊出任何東西。

Dave you want to add anything about the orders or

戴夫，您想添加有關訂單的任何資訊或

--

--

Yeah, order rates I think were -- behaved normally, that they increased each month in the quarter, which is very typical.

是的，我認為訂單率表現正常，該季度每個月都在增加，這是非常典型的。

So -- and we didn't see any large drop offs or acceleration or deceleration on that front.

因此，我們沒有看到這方面有任何大幅下降或加速或減速。

And, Will, maybe just to add on that, just a reminder that we have built good service levels of inventories, as Rafael mentioned.

而且，威爾，也許只是補充一點，只是提醒我們，正如拉斐爾提到的那樣，我們已經建立了良好的庫存服務水平。

Our lead times are very low.

我們的交貨時間非常短。

So we get a lot of business kind of real-time, as it comes.

因此，我們即時獲得了大量業務。

People call it turn business or so.

人們稱之為「轉業」之類的。

So we simply don't have a ton of visibility right now, and customers also they take parts only when they need it.

因此，我們現在根本沒有太多的可見性，而且客戶只在需要時才購買零件。

I don't think they're building inventory.

我不認為他們正在建立庫存。

So that's the reason that we cannot provide more color beyond what they've said.

因此，這就是我們無法提供超出他們所說的更多顏色的原因。

If I can follow up.

如果我能跟進的話。

It actually dovetails with the follow on which is when you all have inventory, your customers may not be all charged up about placing tons of backlog, and when they have inventory, even more so.

它實際上與以下內容相吻合：當您都有庫存時，您的客戶可能不會因為積壓大量訂單而感到煩惱，而當他們有庫存時，情況更是如此。

Our checks recently revealed that customers have more inventory than many suppliers thought like what they were.

我們最近的檢查顯示，客戶的庫存比許多供應商想像的要多。

They were not sort of really close to the end of the inventory digestion at end customers.

他們還沒有真正接近最終客戶的庫存消化結束。

And I wonder if you could either dispel that or provide any insight as TI sees it.

我想知道您是否可以消除這一點，或提供 TI 認為的任何見解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, I'll just answer in a high level, and Dave, then maybe you can chime in.

是的，我會高水準地回答，戴夫，那麼也許你可以插話。

But, look, in general, we don't have visibility into our customer inventory levels.

但是，總的來說，我們無法了解客戶的庫存水準。

I do think, as we all know, I mean, interest rates are high.

我確實認為，眾所周知，我的意思是，利率很高。

It’s the end of the year.

現在是年底。

I don't think there is a lot of desire to build inventory at our customers’ shelves, especially when our inventory position is strong, and that's where we want to be.

我認為沒有太多人願意在客戶的貨架上建立庫存，尤其是當我們的庫存狀況良好時，而這正是我們想要的。

We want to take that burden away from our customers.

我們希望減輕客戶的負擔。

To us, that means level of service, and we want to do it through not only the downcycle but also the upcycle.

對我們來說，這意味著服務水平，我們不僅希望透過下行週期，而且還透過升級週期來實現這一目標。

Hence, the preparation of capacity and inventory, as Rafael said.

因此，正如拉斐爾所說，產能和庫存的準備。

That's the game we want to play in the next upcycle, and that's what drives our capital allocation decisions.

這就是我們在下一個升級週期中想要玩的遊戲，也是推動我們資本配置決策的因素。

Dave, anything specific about customer

戴夫，關於客戶的任何具體信息

--.

--.

I think the point that you made that we're essentially operating from a very healthy position on inventory, that means that customers don't have to place orders.

我認為您提出的觀點是，我們基本上在庫存方面處於非常健康的位置，這意味著客戶不必下訂單。

And that is keeping visibility low, but we want to be able to be ready for the upturn when it comes.

這使得能見度保持在較低水平，但我們希望能夠在經濟好轉時做好準備。

Yeah, many of our lead times are well below 10 weeks today.

是的，今天我們的許多交貨時間都遠低於 10 週。

So, I mean, we provide, I call it excellent customer service, and when customers need the part, we have it for them.

所以，我的意思是，我們提供，我稱之為卓越的客戶服務，當客戶需要零件時，我們會為他們提供。

Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

托雷‧思文凱 (Tore Svanberg)、史蒂菲爾 (Stifel)。

Thank you for squeezing me in.

謝謝你把我擠進去。

I had a follow-up question on the industrial market.

我有一個關於工業市場的後續問題。

Obviously, lead times are short, and you have inventory.

顯然，交貨時間很短，而且有庫存。

But I'm just wondering from an end market or a sell-through perspective, is it fair to say that market is stabilizing?

但我只是想知道，從終端市場或銷售的角度來看，說市場正在穩定是否公平？

Is it getting worse?

情況變得更糟了嗎？

Is it better?

是不是更好了？

I know you called out those two segments that are perhaps starting to stabilize, but any further read on the end consumption there actually getting better or worse?

我知道您指出這兩個部分可能開始穩定，但對最終消費的進一步了解實際上是變得更好還是更糟？

Yeah.

是的。

Just what I -- just to repeat, Tore, thanks for the question.

我只是重複一遍，Tore，謝謝你的提問。

And just repeating what I said, I think most of the sectors are hovering, because we've seen like three or four quarters hovering at the same level, more or less.

重複我所說的，我認為大多數行業都在徘徊，因為我們已經看到有三四個季度或多或少在同一水平上徘徊。

Okay.

好的。

So I would say -- now you call it, is there an inventory correction there or not?

所以我想說──現在你這麼說，是否有庫存修正？

I mean, seasonality would say that industrial would grow, for example, in Q2 or Q3, and it didn't.

我的意思是，季節性意味著工業會在第二季或第三季成長，但事實並非如此。

So, you can argue that there is some inventory correction at customers, and that's the reason for my prepared remarks.

因此，您可以說客戶進行了一些庫存調整，這就是我準備好的評論的原因。

But at least, I do believe that they have stabilized from a revenue perspective.

但至少，我確實相信從收入角度來看它們已經穩定下來。

I will say that the only -- and these are large sectors for TI.

我想說的是，唯一的——這些是 TI 的大部門。

I will say that this is not done on the factory automation and motor drive, which is kind of this automation sector for TI.

我想說的是，這並不是工廠自動化和馬達驅動領域完成的，而這正是 TI 的自動化領域。

That was my only other color that I've added, Tore.

這是我唯一添加的其他顏色，Tore。

And I don't know, Dave, anything to add here?

我不知道，戴夫，這裡還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think, that's good.

我想，這樣很好。

Just one last question.

只是最後一個問題。

So going back to the whole topic about visibility orders and sort of, so forth.

那麼回到關於可見性順序的整個主題等等。

When you talk to your customers, especially some of your non-Chinese customers, is there a sense that everyone's just waiting for rates to come down, getting through the U.S. election?

當你與你的客戶，特別是一些非中國客戶交談時，是否有一種感覺，每個人都在等待利率下降，以度過美國大選？

Because it does feel like there's like some sort of a CapEx cycle coming, but everyone's just waiting on the sidelines.

因為確實感覺到某種資本支出週期即將到來，但每個人都在觀望。

When you talk to some of your biggest industrial customers, do you get a sense that they're waiting for that, or is this is more just about, hey, you know, once spending comes back with better rates and sort of, so forth, we're sort of back to the races.

當你與一些最大的工業客戶交談時，你是否感覺到他們正在等待這一點，或者這更多的是，嘿，你知道，一旦支出以更好的利率回歸，等等，我們又回到了比賽。

Short answer is no.

簡短的回答是否定的。

We don't -- I don't hear that at least.

我們不——至少我沒有聽到。

I don't think if they think that they would tell me anyhow.

我不認為他們是否認為他們會告訴我。

But what I think is important to remember, and I think they value that, because I hear it from the meetings I have, that when they need it, we have it.

但我認為記住這一點很重要，我認為他們很重視這一點，因為我從我的會議中聽到，當他們需要時，我們可以提供。

Okay.

好的。

And we are -- most of our portfolio is very diverse, long-lived, and we let the customers know what -- where we have enough inventory to serve them as they need it and when there are more kind of, call it unique and a smaller part of our portfolio but the lead times are a little bit longer and we require more visibility.

我們的大部分產品組合都是非常多樣化、長期存在的，我們讓客戶知道我們有足夠的庫存來滿足他們的需要，當有更多種類時，稱之為獨特和我們產品組合的一小部分，但交貨時間有點長，我們需要更多的可見性。

I think we are differentiated in that sense.

我認為我們在這個意義上是有區別的。

Customers appreciate it, and hopefully we can maintain that level of support through the next cycle and work on our market share.

客戶對此表示讚賞，希望我們能夠在下一個週期中保持這種水平的支援並努力提高我們的市場份額。

And I think that is what customers expect.

我認為這就是客戶所期望的。

And I think TI can outperform in that sense.

我認為從這個意義上講，TI 可以表現出色。

Okay.

好的。

So let me wrap it up with what we've said previously.

讓我用我們之前所說的來總結一下。

At our core, we're engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company, but ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share.

我們的核心是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎，但最終，我們的目標和衡量進展並為所有者創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。

While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our three ambitions: We will act like owners, who will own the company for decades, we will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing, and we will be a company that we are personally proud to be part of and would want as our neighbor.

在我們努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三個抱負：我們將像所有者一樣行事，誰將擁有公司數十年；我們將在不斷變化的世界中適應並取得成功；我們將成為一家我們個人很自豪能夠成為我們的鄰居，並希望成為我們的鄰居。

When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit.

當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和所有者都會受益。

Thank you and have a good evening.

謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

And this concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your line at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。