德州儀器 (TXN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2023 年第四季財報發布電話會議。我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起的還有我們的財務長拉斐爾·利扎爾迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。對於錯過該發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。此次電話會議正在網路上進行現場直播，您可以透過我們的網站進行存取。此外，今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將在我們的網站上重播。本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

I'd like to provide some information that's important for your calendars. Next week, on Thursday, February 1, at 10 a.m. Central Time, we'll have our capital management call. Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will summarize our progress and provide some insight into our business and our approach to capital allocation as we prepare for the opportunity ahead. Moving on, today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into fourth quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. I'll then provide an annual summary of revenue breakout by end market. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the first quarter of 2024.

我想提供一些對您的日曆很重要的資訊。下週，即 2 月 1 日星期四，中部時間上午 10 點，我們將舉行資本管理電話會議。與我們過去所做的類似，拉斐爾和我將總結我們的進展，並在我們為未來的機會做準備時提供對我們的業務和資本配置方法的一些見解。接下來，今天我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將首先快速概述本季。接下來，我將深入了解第四季的營收結果，以及我們在終端市場方面看到的一些細節。然後，我將提供按終端市場劃分的收入突破的年度摘要。最後，Rafael 將介紹 2024 年第一季的財務業績和指導。

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter. Revenue was $4.1 billion, a decrease of 10% sequentially and 13% from the same quarter a year ago. Analog revenue declined 12% year-over-year and Embedded Processing declined 10%. Our Other segment declined 25% from the year ago quarter. Now I'll provide some insight into our fourth quarter revenue by end market. Our results reflect increasing weakness in industrial and a sequential decline in automotive as customers work to reduce their inventory levels. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it's more informative at this time. First, the industrial market was down mid-teens as we saw that increasing weakness. The automotive market was down mid-single digits after 3.5 years of very strong growth. Personal electronics was about flat. And next, communications equipment was down low single digits. And lastly, Enterprise Systems grew low single digits. In addition, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market.

首先快速概述本季。營收為 41 億美元，較上一季下降 10%，比去年同期下降 13%。模擬收入年減 12%，嵌入式處理收入下降 10%。我們的其他部門較去年同期下降 25%。現在，我將按終端市場提供一些有關我們第四季度收入的見解。我們的業績反映出，隨著客戶努力降低庫存水平，工業業日益疲軟，而汽車業則連續下滑。與上季類似，我將專注於連續效能，因為此時它的資訊更豐富。首先，隨著我們看到工業市場的疲軟程度日益加劇，工業市場出現了十幾歲左右的下跌。經過 3.5 年的強勁成長後，汽車市場出現中個位數下降。個人電子產品基本持平。接下來，通訊設備價格下跌了低個位數。最後，企業系統實現低個位數成長。此外，正如我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣，我將按終端市場描述我們的收入。

As a percentage of revenue for 2023, Industrial was 40%, automotive was 34%, Personal Electronics 15%, Communications Equipment 5%, Enterprise Systems 4% and other was 2%. In 2023, industrial and automotive combined made up 74% of TI's revenue, up about 9 percentage points from 2022 and up from 42% in 2013. We see good opportunities in all of our markets but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive. Our industrial and automotive customers are increasingly turning to Analog and Embedded technologies to make their end products more reliable, more affordable and lower empower. These trends have resulted and will continue to result in growing chip content per application which will drive faster growth compared to our other markets.

佔 2023 年收入的百分比，工業為 40%，汽車為 34%，個人電子產品為 15%，通訊設備為 5%，企業系統為 4%，其他為 2%。 2023 年，工業和汽車合計佔TI 收入的74%，比2022 年增長約9 個百分點，比2013 年的42% 增長約9 個百分點。我們在所有市場都看到了良好的機會，但我們更加重視工業和汽車的戰略重點。我們的工業和汽車客戶越來越多地轉向模擬和嵌入式技術，使其最終產品更可靠、更實惠且功耗更低。這些趨勢已經並將繼續導致每個應用的晶片內容不斷增長，與我們的其他市場相比，這將推動更快的成長。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. As Dave mentioned, fourth quarter revenue was $4.1 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.4 billion or 60% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue higher manufacturing costs associated with planned capacity expansions and reduced factory loadings. Gross profit margin decreased 650 basis points. Operating expenses in the quarter were $898 million, up 4% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion or 21% of revenue. Operating profit was $1.5 billion in the quarter or 38% of revenue. Operating profit was down 30% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the fourth quarter was $1.4 billion or $1.49 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.03 benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

謝謝戴夫，大家下午好。正如 Dave 所提到的，第四季營收為 41 億美元。該季度毛利為 24 億美元，佔營收的 60%。與一年前相比，毛利下降的主要原因是收入減少，與計劃產能擴張和工廠負荷減少相關的製造成本增加。毛利率下降650個基點。該季度營運支出為 8.98 億美元，年增 4%，基本符合預期。過去 12 個月的營運支出為 37 億美元，佔收入的 21%。該季度營業利潤為 15 億美元，佔營收的 38%。營業利潤較去年同期下降 30%。第四季淨利為 14 億美元，即每股 1.49 美元。每股收益包括 0.03 美元的福利，這些福利不在我們最初的指導中。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.9 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $1.1 billion in the quarter. In the quarter, we paid $1.2 billion in dividends and repurchased $65 million of our stock. We also increased our dividend per share by 5% in the fourth quarter. marking our 20th consecutive year of dividend increases. In total, we have returned $4.9 billion in the past 12 months to owners. Our balance sheet remains strong with $8.6 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter. Total debt outstanding was $11.3 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.5%. Inventory at the end of the quarter was $4 billion, up $91 million from the prior quarter, and days were 219, up 14 days sequentially.

現在讓我從我們的現金產生開始評論我們的資本管理結果。本季營運現金流為 19 億美元。本季資本支出為 11 億美元。本季度，我們支付了 12 億美元的股息，並回購了 6,500 萬美元的股票。我們還在第四季將每股股息增加了 5%。這是我們連續 20 年增加股利。過去 12 個月，我們總共向業主返還了 49 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第四季末現金和短期投資為 86 億美元。未償還債務總額為 113 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.5%。季末庫存為 40 億美元，比上季增加 9,100 萬美元，天數為 219 天，比上一季增加 14 天。

Now let's look at some of these results for the year. In 2023, cash flow from operations was $6.4 billion. Capital expenditures were $5.1 billion. Free cash flow for 2023 was $1.3 billion or 8% of revenue. Our free cash flow reflects the strength of our business model as well as our decisions to invest in 300-millimeter manufacturing assets and inventory to support our overall objective to maximize long-term free cash flow per share, which we believe is the primary driver of long-term value. Turning to our outlook, for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.45 billion to $3.75 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $0.96 to $1.16.

現在讓我們看看今年的一些結果。 2023年，營運現金流為64億美元。資本支出為 51 億美元。 2023 年自由現金流為 13 億美元，佔營收的 8%。我們的自由現金流反映了我們業務模式的實力以及我們投資 300 毫米製造資產和庫存的決定，以支持我們最大化每股長期自由現金流的總體目標，我們認為這是主要驅動力長期價值。談到我們的展望，我們預計 TI 第一季營收將在 34.5 億美元至 37.5 億美元之間，每股收益將在 0.96 美元至 1.16 美元之間。

We now expect our 2024 effective tax rate to be about 13%. In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們現在預計 2024 年的有效稅率約為 13%。最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這些機會將使我們能夠繼續實現每股自由現金流的長期成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說到這裡，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. in order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up. Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開提問線路。為了給盡可能多的人提問的機會，請限制自己提出一個問題。在我們回覆後，我們將為您提供額外跟進的機會。操作員？

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的對話。

My first is on your Q1 outlook. I think at the midpoint, you're guiding revenue down 12% or so, which is clearly well below what we consider to be typical seasonality. Any end markets or regions or device types that you can call out that's driving that view? Or is it broad-based weakness across all applications.

我的第一個問題是關於第一季的展望。我認為在中點，您將指導收入下降 12% 左右，這顯然遠低於我們認為的典型季節性。您可以指出哪些終端市場或地區或設備類型推動了這種觀點？或者它是所有應用程式中普遍存在的弱點。

Yes, I'll take that, Toshiya. Thanks for the question. In fourth quarter, we did see weakness in industrial increasing weakness there. We saw the sequential decline in automotive. And as the guide would suggest we believe that we'll just continue to operate in a weak environment and one where customers are continuing to rebalance their inventories overall. So -- but nothing specific to comment on. Do you have a follow-up?

是的，我會接受的，Toshiya。謝謝你的提問。在第四季度，我們確實看到工業疲軟加劇。我們看到汽車產業連續下滑。正如指南所建議的那樣，我們相信我們將繼續在疲軟的環境中運營，而客戶將繼續重新平衡整體庫存。所以——但沒有什麼具體可評論的。你有後續行動嗎？

I do. Just on gross margins, I think you guys did a good job in explaining what's driving it. Still, I'm a little bit surprised with the year-over-year kind of drop through, if you will, gross margin dollars essentially dropping as much as your revenue. I understand the underutilization, the increase in depreciation. But what are you seeing from a pricing perspective? Is it more pricing than volume that's driving the revenue decline and the decline in gross margins? Or if you can kind of speak to your strategy from a pricing perspective, what you're seeing in the marketplace, that would be helpful.

我願意。就毛利率而言，我認為你們在解釋驅動因素方面做得很好。儘管如此，如果你願意的話，我對同比下降感到有點驚訝，毛利率基本上與你的收入下降一樣多。我了解利用率不足和折舊增加的情況。但從定價的角度來看，您看到了什麼？導致收入下降和毛利率下降的原因是否是定價多於銷售？或者，如果您可以從定價角度談談您的策略，以及您在市場上看到的情況，那將會有所幫助。

Yes. Toshiya, and I'll remind everyone else, I know you know the industry well. But pricing just doesn't move quickly in our markets overall. And nor is it the primary reason why a customer chooses our products. So -- and as we've mentioned before, our pricing strategy hasn't changed. And of course, we're always regularly monitoring the market and pricing our products appropriately. And as we've talked about now for, I think, a couple of quarters, as we expected supply and demand to come more in balance that we would expect pricing to revert back to how it's behaved over the last 10 or 20 years. And over the last 6 months or so, that's what we've seen. So somewhat of a low single-digit decline is what we're expecting out in time and I wouldn't describe that as unusual.

是的。 Toshiya，我要提醒其他人，我知道你們很了解這個行業。但整個市場的定價變化並不快。這也不是客戶選擇我們產品的主要原因。因此，正如我們之前提到的，我們的定價策略並沒有改變。當然，我們始終定期監控市場並適當地為我們的產品定價。正如我們現在所討論的，我認為，幾個季度以來，由於我們預計供需將更加平衡，因此我們預計價格將恢復到過去 10 或 20 年的表現。在過去六個月左右的時間裡，這就是我們所看到的。因此，我們預計會出現較低的個位數下降，我不會將其描述為不尋常。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

I wanted to ask about factory loadings. Dave, gross margin was down maybe 250 basis points. It's kind of implied to be down 250 basis points. Even if I strip out depreciation, it's down about 100 basis points from March. So it seems like utilization is coming down a bit. And CapEx also came in a little bit lower, too, for December. So the first question on that is, can you talk about loadings. Is March going to be the bottom in loadings and we should see inventory begin to come down also in March? And then I had a follow-up on that, too.

我想問一下工廠裝貨的情況。戴夫，毛利率可能下降了 250 個基點。這有點暗示會下跌 250 個基點。即使剔除貶值因素，它也比 3 月下降了約 100 個基點。因此，利用率似乎有所下降。 12 月份的資本支出也略有下降。所以第一個問題是，你能談談負載嗎？三月是否會成為裝貨量的底部，我們應該會看到庫存也在三月開始下降？然後我也對此進行了跟進。

Yes. So thanks for the question. So step back in third quarter, at the end of the third quarter, we talked about this as we have near our inventory levels, then we have adjusted our factory loadings accordingly. So in third quarter, we did some of that, and that had an impact on gross margins and underutilization. Fourth quarter adjustment was bigger than third quarter. And now going into first quarter, we're taking that adjustment further. So the first quarter adjustment on the utilization will be will be bigger. But we continue to have an upward bias on inventory as we continue to build the right buffers for the right parts to be ready on the other side of the cycle. Do you have a follow-up?

是的。謝謝你的提問。因此，在第三季度，在第三季度末，我們討論了這個問題，因為我們已經接近我們的庫存水平，然後我們相應地調整了我們的工廠負載。因此，在第三季度，我們做了一些工作，這對毛利率和利用率產生了影響。第四季調整幅度較第三季更大。現在進入第一季度，我們將進一步進行調整。所以第一季對利用率的調整將會比較大。但隨著我們繼續為正確的零件建立正確的緩衝，以便在週期的另一端做好準備，我們仍然對庫存有向上的偏見。你有後續行動嗎？

I did. Yes. So then on CapEx, can you talk about that? It was a little lower. It's running actually quite a bit below the $5 billion run rate now. So are you actually cutting CapEx now with -- since you're bringing on factory loading?

我做到了。是的。那麼關於資本支出，您能談談嗎？有點低。它現在的運行速度實際上比 50 億美元的運行速度要低很多。那麼，既然您正在增加工廠裝載，那麼您現在實際上是否正在削減資本支出？

No, we're not. In fact, CapEx came in as expected, $5.1 billion, and we've been talking about $5 billion per year. So it was right on target. And you should expect and we expect to continue running at about $5 billion per year through 2026 as we complete the investment plans that we've been talking about.

沒有，我們沒有。事實上，資本支出正如預期的那樣達到了 51 億美元，而我們一直在談論每年 50 億美元。所以它是正確的目標。你應該預料到，隨著我們完成我們一直在談論的投資計劃，到 2026 年，我們預計將繼續以每年約 50 億美元的速度運行。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citibank.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

Just a follow-up on the utilization rates. So is the target, I guess, inventory level, has that not changed for you guys? And so do you expect utilization rates to bottom in Q1? Or do you think you might have some more inventory adjustments going into Q2 for TI?

只是利用率的後續行動。我想，庫存水準的目標對你們來說沒有改變嗎？那麼您預計利用率會在第一季觸底嗎？或者您認為 TI 在第二季可能會進行更多庫存調整嗎？

Yes. No, thanks, Chris. So our -- broadly speaking, our inventory targets have not changed over the last 6, 9 months. through this cycle. So we still have some ways to go clearly less than we did 6 months ago. But we will still have some ways to go on that front. At one point, I talked about $4 billion to $4.5 billion worth of inventory. So that's in the ballpark. And we just finished just shy of $4 billion. But as far as when underutilization bottom, that's going to depend on revenue expectations and at this point, we're only -- as always, we only give 1 quarter at a time. So we'll see where we are 90 days from now, and we'll tell you about that.

是的。不，謝謝，克里斯。因此，從廣義上講，我們的庫存目標在過去 6、9 個月內沒有改變。透過這個循環。因此，與 6 個月前相比，我們還有一些路要走。但我們仍然有一些方法可以在這方面繼續前進。有一次，我談到了價值 40 億至 45 億美元的庫存。這就是大概的情況。我們剛剛完成了略低於 40 億美元的資金。但就利用率何時觸底而言，這將取決於收入預期，在這一點上，我們一如既往地一次只提供 1 個季度的資金。因此，我們將看看 90 天後的情況，然後我們告訴您。

Maybe I'll just add that our target inventory is set really by device. It's -- we look at things like how many customers are buying the product, what the buying patterns look like, how long it takes us to manufacture of the product. So it's really a bottoms-up plan built on that very, very specifically. So that's what drives that target overall, and we want to have inventory positioned to support growth. over the long term. This is a side comment. So you have a follow-on, Chris?

也許我會補充一點，我們的目標庫存實際上是由設備設定的。我們會關注有多少客戶購買該產品、購買模式是什麼樣的、我們生產該產品需要多長時間等。所以這其實是一個非常非常具體的自下而上的計劃。這就是推動整體目標的因素，我們希望庫存能夠支持成長。從長遠來看。這是一個側面評論。那你有後續行動嗎，克里斯？

Yes. I guess just a little bit of color on the end market commentary. Thanks for that. On the industrial side, it sounds like most of the downside is due to excess inventory, not demand. I was hoping you could confirm that. And then with automotive weakening, is there any reason why automotive wouldn't fall under the same issues that the industrial end markets/inventory would as well.

是的。我想只是對終端市場的評論有一點色彩。感謝那。在工業方面，聽起來大部分下行是由於庫存過剩，而不是需求。我希望你能證實這一點。然後，隨著汽車產業的疲軟，汽車產業是否有理由不會陷入工業終端市場/庫存相同的問題？

Yes. So I'll start and then Rafael, if you want to add anything. I would say that the demand signals that we get from customers are orders that they place, whether that's either directly or through consignment fees. So that's the data that we can see. We actually can't see their inventory levels we can anecdotally as we see a market like personal electronics is down 30%, 40%. We know handsets and PCs that market hasn't gone down as much as that. So we know anecdotally that we're shipping below demand. So we believe that that's what's going on in industrial.

是的。如果您想添加任何內容，我將開始，然後是拉斐爾。我想說的是，我們從客戶那裡得到的需求訊號是他們下的訂單，無論是直接的還是透過寄售費。這就是我們可以看到的數據。事實上，我們無法看到他們的庫存水平，因為我們看到個人電子產品等市場下降了 30%、40%。我們知道手機和個人電腦市場的跌幅並沒有那麼嚴重。據傳聞，我們的出貨量低於需求。所以我們相信這就是工業領域正在發生的事情。

We have customers who have told us that they have built inventory and plan to correct that. So having a real clear picture of what their demand looks like and their channel inventories look like isn't something that we can see directly overall. So -- and the comment on automotive. We know that customers there did want to build inventory. And we believe that they're in a good position now. So it wasn't surprising that we saw a sequential decline there. So thanks, Chris. We will go to our next caller please.

我們的客戶告訴我們，他們已經建立了庫存併計劃糾正這一問題。因此，真正清楚地了解他們的需求狀況和通路庫存情況並不是我們可以直接整體看到的。那麼——以及對汽車的評論。我們知道那裡的客戶確實想要建立庫存。我們相信他們現在處於有利位置。因此，我們看到那裡的連續下降並不奇怪。所以謝謝，克里斯。我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom O'Malley with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自湯姆·奧馬利與巴克萊銀行的對話。

I just wanted to understand the linearity of the industrial and automotive declines. When you set out in the quarter baked into your expectations, where you're kind of looking at these 2 businesses both a little bit better than they came in or was one a bit worse than the other versus your expectations? And then just in terms of the timing of the quarter, it looks like your finished goods inventory went up a bit. more than your other buckets. And I just wanted to understand, is that just because later in the quarter, customers were signaling some weaker trends? Or is there any reason behind the dynamic there?

我只是想了解工業和汽車行業下降的線性關係。當您在本季開始考慮您的預期時，您認為這兩家企業都比您的預期好一點，還是其中一家比另一家差一些？然後就本季的時間而言，您的成品庫存似乎有所增加。比你的其他桶子多。我只是想了解，這只是因為在本季末，客戶發出了一些疲軟趨勢的訊號嗎？或者說，這種動態背後有什麼原因嗎？

Let me start with the second part of the question. And Dave, do you want to take the first one, better. Second part, that's just a reflection of our ability to build those inventory buffers that we're talking about. And what you're seeing there is on the finished goods side. That's one, as Dave alluded to earlier, that's one set of targets that we have. That's at the finished goods level. Remember, we have 100,000 different parts. And the vast majority of those are what we call catalog, which means they sell to many, many customers. So we want to build certain finished good level for each one of those parts. But we're also building at the chip level. Think of a chip can go into 2, 3, 10 different finished goods. So it works out well to have some chip level inventory operationally. But you also have -- want to have finished goods. So that's what (inaudible) you saw there.

讓我從問題的第二部分開始。戴夫，你想拿第一個，更好嗎？第二部分，這只是我們建立我們正在討論的庫存緩衝區的能力的反映。您所看到的是成品方面。正如戴夫之前提到的，這是我們的一組目標。這是成品水準。請記住，我們有 100,000 個不同的零件。其中絕大多數都是我們所說的目錄，這意味著它們銷售給很多很多客戶。因此，我們希望為這些部分中的每一個建立一定的完成良好水平。但我們也在晶片層級進行建構。想像一個晶片可以用於 2、3、10 種不同的成品。因此，在營運中擁有一些晶片級庫存效果很好。但你也想要成品。這就是你在那裡看到的（聽不清楚）。

Yes. And by end markets, Tom, our guidance, as you saw where our revenues came in, we were, I think, less than 1% from the midpoint of the guidance range. So the business came in about as we expected and nothing unusual in -- versus our expectation in industrial or automotive overall. So do you have a follow-up.

是的。湯姆，就終端市場而言，我們的指導，正如您所看到的，我們的收入來自哪裡，我認為，我們距離指導範圍的中點不到 1%。因此，該業務的發展符合我們的預期，與我們對工業或汽車產業整體的預期相比，沒有什麼異常。那你有後續行動嗎？

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

I just wanted to ask about the product side, the analog versus embedded. Embedded had a significantly better year, dropping 3% versus the analog down 15. I know there's very different end market exposures for those. But were there other competitive dynamics, pricing dynamics, strategic focus dynamics, anything else to explain the difference between the performance of those 2 segments.

我只是想問產品方面，模擬與嵌入式。嵌入式領域的表現明顯好得多，下降了 3%，而模擬領域則下降了 15%。我知道這些領域的終端市場曝險有很大不同。但是否還有其他競爭動態、定價動態、策略重點動態或其他任何因素來解釋這兩個細分市場的績效差異。

Yes, Ross, I think your instincts are spot on that the first lens to look at things is through the end markets and embedded has those heavied up in industrial and automotive. So revenues there were stronger for a longer period of time. The second consideration is that embedded relies on foundry wafer supply more heavily. Most of our analog business is done internally. So There, the constraints lasted longer and have now been resolved and are behind us. So that created some of the lag between there as well. So -- and as you know, our CapEx plans and spend will have more of our wafers overall built internally, which is inclusive of Embedded. Do you have a follow-on?

是的，羅斯，我認為你的直覺是正確的，看待事物的第一個鏡頭是透過終端市場，並且嵌入在工業和汽車領域。因此，那裡的收入在較長一段時間內保持強勁。第二個考慮因素是嵌入式更依賴代工晶圓供應。我們的大部分模擬業務都是在內部完成的。因此，這些限制持續的時間更長，現在已經解決並成為過去。這也造成了兩者之間的一些滯後。因此，如您所知，我們的資本支出計劃和支出將有更多的晶圓整體內部構建，其中包括嵌入式。你有後續嗎？

Yes, I do. And it's kind of a cyclical question. You guys are astute students of cyclicality of this whole industry. I think this is going to be included in your guide, the sixth quarter of negative year-over-year comps. Do you see anything that's TI-specific that's different this cycle, pricing just got so good before. Now it's a bigger headwind. You kind of addressed the pricing dynamic a little bit before. But what's making this duration so much longer? And is any of it TI specific?

是的，我願意。這是一個週期性問題。你們是整個產業週期性的精明學生。我認為這將包含在您的指南中，即第六季度的同比負面比較。您是否看到本週期中 TI 特有的任何不同之處，之前的定價非常好。現在，這是一個更大的逆風。您之前已經討論過定價動態。但是是什麼讓這個持續時間如此之長呢？其中有 TI 特有的嗎？

Ross, I think I'll make a comment, and Rafael, if you want to add anything. All cycles are the same, and they're all different, right, as we've all studied them over time. What's clearly different this time is how the markets have behaved in the bifurcation. We saw personal electronics begin to weaken the second quarter a year ago. And automotive, just we saw a sequential decline in this last quarter. So in the other markets, somewhere in between. So -- and then in addition, I think that we've had lots of other noise that's inside of the system, whether that's been pricing, as you mentioned.

羅斯，我想我會發表評論，拉斐爾，如果你想補充什麼。所有的週期都是一樣的，而且都是不同的，對吧，因為我們都隨著時間的推移對它們進行了研究。這次明顯不同的是市場在分歧中的表現。我們看到一年前第二季個人電子產品開始走弱。而汽車產業，我們在上個季度看到了連續下降。所以在其他市場，介於兩者之間。因此，此外，我認為系統內部還有很多其他噪音，無論是定價，正如您所提到的。

We've had noncancelable non-reschedule orders and other longer-term contracts that have required customers to take product that they don't need whether companies are using distributors more heavily than others. So all of that adds noise into it. So I think we just need to let that noise bring itself out over the cycle. And what we're focused on, of course, is investing in our competitive advantages, getting stronger, we believe that we're in a great position to continue to gain share over the long term.

我們有不可取消、不可重新安排的訂單和其他長期合同，這些合同要求客戶獲取他們不需要的產品，無論公司是否比其他公司更頻繁地使用分銷商。所以所有這些都增加了噪音。所以我認為我們只需要讓噪音在整個週期中自行顯現即可。當然，我們關注的是投資我們的競爭優勢，變得更強，我們相信，從長遠來看，我們處於繼續獲得份額的有利位置。

Yes. I just want to clarify for those who maybe new on the call, when they've talked about our non-cancel, non returnable orders, that's not, we don't do that. Many of our competitors have done that. So that, in our view, is towards the market that wasn't the case with us. And the second point, distributors, same thing. Our distribution footprint is much smaller than with many of our competitors. We're down to 25% or so of our revenue through distribution of 75% direct whereas many of our competitors are the opposite.

是的。我只是想向那些可能是新來的人澄清一下，當他們談論我們的不可取消、不可退貨訂單時，我們不會這樣做。我們的許多競爭對手已經這樣做了。因此，我們認為，市場的情況與我們不同。第二點，經銷商，同樣的事情。我們的分銷足跡比許多競爭對手小得多。我們透過 75% 的直接分銷將收入減少到 25% 左右，而我們的許多競爭對手則相反。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自喬摩爾與摩根士丹利的對話。

I wonder if you could talk about the chips act, how that's kind of flowing through both the investment tax credit and then any thoughts you may have on timing of kind of grant issuances or things like that?

我想知道您是否可以談談晶片法案，它是如何透過投資稅收抵免以及您對發放補助金或類似事情的時間有什麼想法的？

Yes. No, happy to talk about that. So first, let me address the ITC first, and then I'll go to the grant. So the ITC investment tax credit, 25% credit on CapEx for manufacturing in the United States, we have accrued to date over the last 1.5 years or so, $1.4 billion. We expect to get about $500 million of that later this year, probably in the fourth quarter as far as the current law and regulations stipulate. And we'll get the rest further down the road, mostly the following year and then after that. And we'll continue to accrue that benefit just again, 25% on anything we spend in the United States for manufacturing. That's the cash side and the balance sheet.

是的。不，很高興談論這個。首先，讓我先向 ITC 致辭，然後再討論撥款事宜。因此，ITC 投資稅收抵免，即對美國製造業資本支出的 25% 抵免，我們在過去 1.5 年左右的時間裡已經累積了 14 億美元。我們預計今年稍後將獲得約 5 億美元，根據現行法律法規的規定，可能是在第四季。我們將在未來進一步解決其餘的問題，主要是在第二年，然後是在那之後。我們將繼續再次獲得這種收益，即我們在美國的製造支出中獲得 25% 的收益。這就是現金方面和資產負債表。

On the P&L, you're already we're already seeing the benefit of lower depreciation. And that tends to be -- that benefit tends to be small, has been small so far because, for example, some of that is for buildings that haven't even started to depreciate but it will build up over time on that front. So that's the ITC. The grant we submitted our application for those in December. And at this point, we will wait to hear from the Department of Commerce and see what happens there.

在損益表上，我們已經看到了較低折舊的好處。情況往往是——這種好處往往很小，到目前為止一直很小，因為，例如，其中一些是針對那些甚至還沒有開始貶值的建築物，但隨著時間的推移，它會在這方面逐漸積累。這就是國際貿易委員會。我們在 12 月提交了補助金申請。目前，我們將等待商務部的消息，看看會發生什麼。

You have a follow-on Joe?

你有一個後續的喬嗎？

Yes, I did. So I think, obviously, that stuff will help the cash flow down the road, but your free cash flow is below the level of the dividend right now, I assume it's pretty important to keep paying the dividend. Where does that leave you in terms of share repurchases and other uses of cash?

是的，我做到了。所以我認為，顯然，這些東西將有助於未來的現金流，但你的自由現金流目前低於股息水平，我認為繼續支付股息非常重要。就股票回購和其他現金用途而言，這對您有何影響？

Yes. First, I would point you to our operating cash. Our business model is very strong. And our operating cash flow is very strong, and it supports our investment for growth through the cycle. So clearly, with the levels of CapEx that we have right now that hits the free cash flow, but big picture understand and look at the operating cash even in a depressed environment with the revenue (inaudible) the operating cash flow is very strong. We also have a very strong balance sheet, and we just finished the year $8.6 billion. When it comes to repurchases, I would take you to our objectives on capital management for cash return. And our objective is to return all free cash flow via dividends and repurchases. Each one of those has different objectives on dividends and repurchases. But we have a really good track record over many years of doing both of those.

是的。首先，我想向您介紹我們的營運現金。我們的商業模式非常強大。我們的經營現金流非常強勁，它支持我們在整個週期中的成長投資。很明顯，我們現在的資本支出水準影響了自由現金流，但即使在收入低迷的環境下（聽不清楚），營運現金流也非常強勁，從整體上理解和審視營運現金。我們的資產負債表也非常強勁，今年剛完成 86 億美元的資產。說到回購，我會帶您了解我們的現金回報資本管理目標。我們的目標是透過股利和回購返還所有自由現金流。其中每一個在股利和回購方面都有不同的目標。但多年來我們在這兩方面都取得了非常好的紀錄。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自哈蘭·蘇爾 (Harlan Sur) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

Up to Q3 of that (inaudible) the team had seen numerous consecutive quarters of increasing cancellations and pushouts, right, typical customer behavior in a weak demand environment. I assume given your commentary that the team continues to see cancellations, pushouts activity expanding into the December quarter, you're almost a month into March. Are you still seeing cancellations and pushouts expanding or starting to maybe see some signs of stabilization?

到第三季（聽不清楚），團隊已經連續多個季度看到取消和延遲的情況不斷增加，沒錯，這是需求疲軟環境下的典型客戶行為。我認為，根據您的評論，團隊繼續看到取消、推出活動擴大到 12 月季度，那麼您已經進入 3 月份將近一個月了。您是否仍然看到取消和取消航班的情況不斷擴大，或者開始看到一些穩定的跡象？

Yes, Harlan. As you would expect, we have seen cancellations in the quarter and fourth quarter had remained elevated I wouldn't describe them as increasing, but just at higher levels. And we're still early inside of the quarter. I would say all of what's going on with cancellations and the backlog that we see is all comprehended in our guidance and our outlook.

是的，哈倫。正如您所料，我們看到本季度和第四季度的取消訂單數量仍然很高，我不會將其描述為增加，但只是處於更高的水平。我們仍處於本季初期。我想說的是，我們看到的所有取消和積壓的情況都包含在我們的指導和展望中。

Perfect. And then yes, from a geographical perspective, China headquartered shipments seen about 20% of your sales through the October quarter of last year. This geography has experienced the most significant decline during this downturn, when it's down about 33% year-to-date up through Q3 of last year, your total business was down 13%, right? Is this geography continuing to contribute to the weakness stepping into this year? Or is the weakness more U.S. and European based?

完美的。然後，是的，從地理角度來看，去年 10 月這個季度，中國總部的出貨量約佔銷售額的 20%。該地區在這次經濟低迷時期經歷了最顯著的下滑，截至去年第三季度，今年迄今下降了約 33%，你們的總業務下降了 13%，對嗎？這種地理位置是否會繼續導致今年的疲軟？還是疲軟更多是基於美國和歐洲？

Yes. I would say when you look regionally this quarter from a -- just from a dollar standpoint, you've got -- sequentially, all the regions were down with the exception of the rest of Asia. So nothing unusual with China going on specifically there overall. So again, when we look at our business, I think most of that is explained by the end markets. And certainly, we hadn't seen a recovery inside of China that I think most of us were expecting.

是的。我想說的是，當你從本季的地區情況來看——僅從美元的角度來看——你會發現，除亞洲其他地區外，所有地區都出現下滑。因此，總體而言，中國在那裡發生的事情並沒有什麼異常。所以，當我們審視我們的業務時，我認為大部分都是由終端市場來解釋的。當然，我們並沒有看到中國國內的復甦，我認為這是我們大多數人所期待的。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen & Company 的 Joshua Buchalter。

I wanted to ask about how you're thinking about OpEx given the extended softness. Any thoughts on getting more defensive with OpEx as the weakness last longer than expected? Or you grew OpEx 8% in 2023? Is that sort of the right level that you think you need to be investing in the business for the long-term growth.

我想問一下，鑑於長期的疲軟，您對營運支出有何看法。由於疲軟持續時間比預期更長，您是否有考慮透過營運支出採取更多防禦措施？還是您在 2023 年的營運支出成長了 8%？您認為為了實現長期成長而需要對業務進行投資的水平是否合適？

Yes. Big picture, we have a disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D and SG&A to the best opportunities. And we've held a steady hand throughout a number of years, pre-pandemic, during the pandemic, post pandemic, where we manage OpEx very well during that time and didn't get ahead of our skis. So we will continue with that discipline process. Remember, of course, these investments, particularly industrial automotive, which is where we're biasing investments, they're very long term in nature. You're not going to -- what you say now is going to -- would hurt your long-term revenue growth. So we're not going to do that. So we're going to maintain those investments for the long term.

是的。整體而言，我們有一套嚴格的流程，將資金分配給研發，將銷售、一般管理費用分配給最佳機會。多年來，我們一直保持著穩定的態度，無論是大流行前、大流行期間還是大流行後，我們在那段時間很好地管理了運營支出，並且沒有超越我們的滑雪板。因此，我們將繼續執行該紀律程序。當然，請記住，這些投資，特別是工業汽車，這是我們偏向投資的領域，它們本質上是長期的。你現在所說的不會損害你的長期收入成長。所以我們不會那樣做。因此，我們將長期維持這些投資。

You have a follow-on, Josh?

你有後續行動嗎，喬許？

Yes. I guess I wanted to ask about your fixed cost leverage. I mean, in the past, you've talked about, I think, 75% gross margin fall through on incremental revenue. Is that still the right metric we should be using given revenues, a good amount lower and depreciation is larger. I'd just be curious to hear if anything in the mechanics of that math has changed. And basically, when can the incremental 300-millimeter capacity start flowing through to gross margin and be margin accretive?

是的。我想我想問一下你們的固定成本槓桿。我的意思是，在過去，我認為您談到過，75% 的毛利率因增量收入而下降。在給定收入的情況下，這仍然是我們應該使用的正確指標嗎？收入大幅下降，而折舊卻更大。我只是想知道數學原理是否改變了。基本上，增量的 300 毫米產能什麼時候可以開始轉化為毛利率並增加利潤？

Yes. So the math is still the same. The fall-through (inaudible) is 70% to 75%. That is still a reasonable starting point. You then have to adjust for depreciation, as you alluded to in our depreciation. I gave you an update on that 90 days ago, but I'll reinforce that in a second, but you have to adjust for that. And then there are always puts and takes on any given quarter like right now, it's under utilization, but at some point, that goes the other way. Throughout this time, as you pointed out, we will continue to benefit increasingly from 300-millimeter -- more 300-millimeter wafers, which have a cost advantage. So let me go back to depreciation, just to make sure everybody has the right numbers. It's the same as what I said 90 days ago for 2024, expect $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion and for 2025, expect $2 million to $2.5 million.

是的。所以數學還是一樣的。失敗率（聽不清楚）為 70% 到 75%。這仍然是一個合理的起點。然後，您必須調整折舊，正如您在我們的折舊中提到的那樣。我在 90 天前向您提供了最新情況，但我會立即強調這一點，但您必須對此進行調整。然後，在任何給定的季度總會有看跌期權和承兌期權，就像現在一樣，它的利用率較低，但在某些時候，情況會相反。正如您所指出的，在這段時間裡，我們將繼續從 300 毫米晶圓中受益，更多的 300 毫米晶圓具有成本優勢。讓我回到折舊，只是為了確保每個人都有正確的數字。這與我 90 天前所說的一樣，2024 年預計為 15 億至 18 億美元，2025 年預計為 200 萬至 250 萬美元。

Our next question comes from the line of CJ Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們的下一個問題來自 CJ Muse 和 Cantor Fitzgerald 的台詞。

I guess first question, your revenue outlook for March basically gets us back to kind of pre-Covid first half 2020 levels. Yet at the same time, your inventory is roughly double. And so curious, how are you thinking about kind of normalized inventory over time? And also, how are you thinking about coming out of the trough, what kind of a gross margin recovery will look like given where your inventory levels are today?

我想第一個問題，你們對 3 月的收入前景基本上讓我們回到了 2020 年上半年新冠疫情之前的水平。但與此同時，您的庫存大約增加了一倍。很好奇，您如何看待一段時間內的標準化庫存？另外，考慮到您目前的庫存水平，您如何考慮走出低谷，毛利率恢復會是什麼樣子？

So that's a multipart question, has many angles to that. What I would tell you, high level, we're very comfortable with our inventory level. Right now, we're just shy of $4 billion. As I said earlier on the call, we have a continued upward bias for at least one more quarter probably a couple of quarters at least an upward bias on that. But that is good inventory for catalog parts that sell to many customers that last a long time. So I feel really good about that. But we'll see how things play out in the early part of the cycle and depending on demand and different things. But I would expect to continue holding relatively high levels of inventory.

所以這是一個多部分的問題，有很多角度。我想說的是，高層，我們對庫存水準非常滿意。目前，我們的資金只差 40 億美元。正如我早些時候在電話會議上所說，我們至少在一個季度內持續上行，可能至少在幾個季度內繼續上行。但這對於銷售給許多客戶且持續很長時間的目錄零件來說是很好的庫存。所以我對此感覺很好。但我們將根據需求和不同的情況，看看在周期的早期階段事情會如何發展。但我預計將繼續持有相對較高的庫存水準。

We are just in a different position than we were even 3 or 4 years ago in terms of how much of our revenue and our parts are in industrial automotive, in catalog type of parts that last a long time. So our strategy is such that it makes sense to have to have that inventory. Our order fulfillment processes have also improved. We have ti.com and different tools that we can leverage to go direct to market. We have a much higher percent of our revenue, now 35% is direct. So all those factors play into having more inventory as a real leverage point that we can use to serve our customers even better.

只是就我們的收入和零件中有多少來自工業汽車、耐用的零件目錄類型而言，我們的處境與三、四年前有所不同。因此，我們的策略是擁有該庫存是有意義的。我們的訂單履行流程也得到了改善。我們有 ti.com 和不同的工具，我們可以利用它們直接進入市場。我們的收入比例要高得多，現在 35% 是直接收入。因此，所有這些因素都有助於擁有更多庫存，作為我們可以用來更好地為客戶提供服務的真正槓桿點。

A quick follow-up to a prior question. I know you can't share too much, but your application clearly in for the CHIPS Act. I guess, we should hear results between now and the summer. I guess, is there anything you can share on that front and perhaps how it's kind of impacting your thoughts on the capacity you're bringing online?

對先前問題的快速跟進。我知道您不能分享太多，但您的申請明確符合《CHIPS 法案》。我想，從現在到夏天我們應該會聽到結果。我想，在這方面您有什麼可以分享的嗎？也許它是如何影響您對線上容量的想法的？

Yes. No. Unfortunately, no, there's nothing we can share. It's really up to the Department of Commerce. We sent our application, and we'll see where that goes. What I would say just -- just like I said I've said before is when we decided about a year ago to take our CapEx up from $3.5 billion per year to $5 billion per year. And this tremendous plan to build more fabs in the United States, we comprehended CHIPS grant in that decision. So that was part of our thinking there. But at this point, yes, that's all we can share on that front.

是的。不。不幸的是，不，我們沒有什麼可以分享的。這實際上取決於商務部。我們已經發送了申請，我們將看看它的去向。我想說的是——就像我之前說過的那樣，大約一年前我們決定將資本支出從每年 35 億美元增加到每年 50 億美元。這個在美國建造更多晶圓廠的宏偉計劃，我們在該決定中了解 CHIPS 撥款。這就是我們想法的一部分。但在這一點上，是的，這就是我們在這方面能分享的全部。

And I think we've got time for one more call, please.

我想我們還有時間再打一次電話。

Our last question comes from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

Just trying to understand a little bit about why the customers may have reacted as they did because we know your lead times have normalized well in advance of the rest of the industry. Do you think this is just simply a function of end markets took a note leg down here? Do you think perhaps some of your customers were delaying their inventory adjustments until they saw lead times for the rest of the industry come down because we know that's also some of your competitors lagged your lead time normalization. Perhaps that was a factor here.

只是想了解為什麼客戶可能會做出這樣的反應，因為我們知道您的交貨時間已經比行業其他公司提前正常化。您是否認為這只是終端市場下跌的結果？您是否認為您的一些客戶可能會推遲庫存調整，直到他們看到行業其他公司的交貨時間下降，因為我們知道您的一些競爭對手也落後於您的交貨時間正常化。也許這是一個因素。

Yes, Chris, as you know, you can't pin it on one thing, especially we've got well over 100,000 customers and 80,000 products that we're managing. As Rafael was talking about building inventory, we've got essentially all of our catalog products or almost all of our catalog products are now immediately available on ti.com. And our objective with inventory and the capacity we're putting in place is to have our customer service metrics remain high, which means keeping time lead times stable.

是的，克里斯，正如您所知，您不能將其歸咎於一件事，尤其是我們管理超過 100,000 名客戶和 80,000 種產品。當 Rafael 談論建立庫存時，我們基本上已經獲得了所有目錄產品，或者幾乎所有目錄產品現在都可以立即在 ti.com 上獲得。我們的庫存和產能目標是維持較高的客戶服務指標，這意味著保持交貨時間穩定。

So I think in some markets, we've seen customers that have told us that they were planning and have built their capacity and their inventories to grow at 25% in the coming year. And they showed up and their plans change, and they're only going to grow 10%, right? So they told us they won't be ordering product for some time as they equalize those numbers. they're still going to have healthy growth, but it's hard to put that across all of those 100,000 customers into one short concise statement. Do you have a follow-on?

因此，我認為在某些市場，我們看到客戶告訴我們，他們正在計劃並建立自己的產能和庫存，以在未來一年增長 25%。他們出現了，他們的計劃發生了變化，他們只會增長 10%，對嗎？因此，他們告訴我們，他們在一段時間內不會訂購產品，因為他們會平衡這些數字。他們仍將保持健康成長，但很難將所有這 10 萬名客戶的成長納入一份簡短的聲明中。你有後續嗎？

Yes. Fair enough. And if you could help us with the impact of the underutilization right now how much of a headwind is that providing right now on a cost of sales basis? And then on the other side of this, when we finally get to a recovery, what will be the right way to model this. Will there be a bigger snapback as some of the underutilization comes off? Or do we just kind of go back to sort of those mid-70s incremental margins on the way back up.

是的。很公平。如果您能幫助我們解決目前使用率不足的影響，那麼在銷售成本的基礎上，目前會帶來多大的阻力？另一方面，當我們最終實現復甦時，建模的正確方法是什麼。隨著一些未充分利用的情況消失，是否會出現更大的反彈？或者我們只是回到 70 年代中期的增量利潤率。

Yes. So what I would tell you, first, we don't quantify on the utilization, but you can fairly reasonably back into it, just looking at our numbers, our midpoint or our range, our midpoint and then consider the depreciation -- expected depreciation increase and it'd be relatively straightforward for you to back into something reasonable for first quarter on the underutilization impact there. Now after that, it's all going to depend on revenue and revenue expectations because, of course, depending what those are in the second half of the year, let's say, 90 days from now, then that will be a big factor in determining how the factories will run.

是的。所以我要告訴你的是，首先，我們不會量化利用率，但你可以相當合理地回顧它，只需查看我們的數字、我們的中點或我們的範圍、我們的中點，然後考慮折舊——預期折舊增加，對您來說，在第一季針對未充分利用的影響恢復合理的水平是相對簡單的。在那之後，一切都將取決於收入和收入預期，因為當然，這取決於下半年的情況，比方說，從現在起 90 天，那麼這將是決定未來如何發展的一個重要因素。工廠將會運行。

But the bigger picture is all deployment of CapEx that we're doing is all on 300-millimeter, which has a 40% cost advantage versus 200-millimeter. As several questions people asked earlier, has ITC benefits on that. So the -- is coming in at 25% discount on the ITC, and we'll see how much we get on grant. So the fall-through on those investments for many, many years will be very positive, I would say. So with that, Dave?

但更大的前景是，我們所做的所有資本支出部署都在 300 毫米上，與 200 毫米相比，它具有 40% 的成本優勢。正如人們之前提出的幾個問題，ITC 對此有好處嗎？因此，ITC 將提供 25% 的折扣，我們將看看我們能獲得多少補助。因此，我想說，這些投資在很多年的失敗將是非常積極的。那麼，戴夫？

Yes. Thanks, Rafael. Thank you all for joining us. We look forward to sharing our capital management update next Thursday, February 1, at 10 a.m. Central Time, as I mentioned earlier and a replay of this call will be available shortly on our website. Good evening.

是的。謝謝，拉斐爾。感謝大家加入我們。正如我之前提到的，我們期待下週四（2 月 1 日）中部時間上午 10 點分享我們的資本管理最新動態，並且很快就會在我們的網站上提供本次電話會議的重播。晚安.

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，大家可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。