德州儀器 (TXN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Dave Pahl，我們的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 也加入了我的行列。對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

此電話正在網絡上直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。此外，今天的通話正在錄製中，可以通過我們網站上的重播獲得。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。我們鼓勵您查看有關今天發布的收益發布中包含的前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide some insight into first quarter's revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the second quarter of 2023.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將從本季度的快速概覽開始。接下來，我將提供對第一季度收入結果的一些見解，以及我們在終端市場方面看到的一些細節。最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績和我們對 2023 年第二季度的指導。

Starting with a quick overview of the first quarter. Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $4.4 billion, a decrease of 6% sequentially and 11% year-over-year. Analog revenue declined 14%, Embedded Processing grew 6% and our Other segment declined 16% from the year ago quarter. As expected, our results reflect weaker demand in all end markets with the exception of automotive.

從第一季度的快速概覽開始。本季度的收入與預期相符，為 44 億美元，環比下降 6%，同比下降 11%。模擬收入下降 14%，嵌入式處理增長 6%，我們的其他部門比去年同期下降 16%。正如預期的那樣，我們的結果反映了除汽車外所有終端市場的需求疲軟。

As mentioned last quarter, a component of the weaker demand was inventory reductions by our customers, which we expect to continue in the second quarter. Now I'll provide some insight into our first quarter revenue by market. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance as it's more informative at this time.

正如上一季度所述，需求疲軟的一個組成部分是我們的客戶減少庫存，我們預計這種情況將在第二季度繼續。現在我將按市場提供一些關於我們第一季度收入的見解。與上一季度類似，我將重點關注連續表現，因為此時它的信息量更大。

First, the industrial market was about flat. The automotive market was up mid-single digits. Personal electronics declined about 30% as we continued to see broad-based weakness. Next, communications equipment was down mid-teens. And finally, enterprise systems was down about 30%. Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

一是工業市場基本持平。汽車市場上漲了中個位數。由於我們繼續看到廣泛的疲軟，個人電子產品下跌了約 30%。接下來，通信設備下降了十幾歲。最後，企業系統下降了約 30%。 Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. As Dave mentioned, first quarter revenue was $4.4 billion, down 11% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.9 billion or 65% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit margin decreased 480 basis points.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。正如戴夫所說，第一季度收入為 44 億美元，比去年同期下降 11%。本季度的毛利潤為 29 億美元，佔收入的 65%。與一年前相比，毛利率下降了 480 個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $929 million, up 14% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.5 billion or 18% of revenue. Operating profit was $1.9 billion in the quarter or 44% of revenue and was down 25% from a year ago quarter.

本季度的運營支出為 9.29 億美元，同比增長 14%，與預期基本一致。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用為 35 億美元，佔收入的 18%。本季度營業利潤為 19 億美元，佔收入的 44%，比去年同期下降 25%。

Net income in the first quarter was $1.7 billion or $1.85 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.03 benefit for items that were not in our original guide.

第一季度的淨收入為 17 億美元或每股 1.85 美元。每股收益包括我們原始指南中沒有的項目的 0.03 美元收益。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.2 billion in the quarter and $7.7 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenses were $982 million in the quarter and $3.3 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $4.4 billion.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。本季度運營現金流為 12 億美元，過去 12 個月為 77 億美元。本季度的資本支出為 9.82 億美元，過去 12 個月的資本支出為 33 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 44 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends and repurchased about $100 million of our stock. In total, we have returned $7.5 billion in the past 12 months.

本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息並回購了約 1 億美元的股票。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們總共返還了 75 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.5 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter. In the quarter, we issued $1.4 billion of debt. Total debt outstanding was $10.2 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.2%. Inventory dollars were up $531 million from the prior quarter to $3.3 billion. And days were 195, up 38 days sequentially.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，第一季度末有 95 億美元的現金和短期投資。本季度，我們發行了 14 億美元的債券。未償還債務總額為 102 億美元，加權平均息票率為 3.2%。庫存美元比上一季度增加 5.31 億美元，達到 33 億美元。天數為 195，連續增加 38 天。

For the second quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.17 billion to $4.53 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.62 to $1.88. Lastly, we continue to expect our 2023 effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%.

對於第二季度，我們預計 TI 收入在 41.7 億美元至 45.3 億美元之間，每股收益在 1.62 美元至 1.88 美元之間。最後，我們繼續預計 2023 年的有效稅率約為 13% 至 14%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的渠道覆蓋面以及多樣化和長期的地位。我們將通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最佳機會來繼續加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續實現每股自由現金流的增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open up the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開提問線了。 （操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stacy Rasgon 與 Bernstein Research 的合作。

For my first one, I just wanted to dig into CapEx and depreciation. So you did CapEx of $982 million in the quarter. I just -- first, can you just clarify, that's the gross number without any of the tax credits? And I guess, assuming that's true, both the CapEx and the depreciation number in the quarter are running well below the run rate there or the annualized number that you have given at the capital management, CapEx should have been about $5 billion for the year, depreciation, maybe $1.5 million. So am I right in assuming that it implies fairly substantial ramp into the back half and the end of the year for both those metrics, CapEx and depreciation?

對於我的第一個，我只是想深入研究資本支出和折舊。所以你在本季度的資本支出為 9.82 億美元。我只是 - 首先，你能澄清一下，這是沒有任何稅收抵免的總數嗎？我想，假設這是真的，本季度的資本支出和折舊數字都遠低於那裡的運行率或你在資本管理部門給出的年化數字，今年的資本支出應該約為 50 億美元，折舊，可能是 150 萬美元。那麼我是否正確地假設這意味著這兩個指標、資本支出和折舊在下半年和年底都有相當大的增長？

So thanks for your questions, Stacy. Good question there. So it gives us a chance to clarify those. So first, on CapEx, we're pleased with the progress that we've made both in 2022, but also year-to-date first quarter of this year, everything is in line with expectations. As we shared on the call a couple of months ago, we expect CapEx to average $5 billion per year for the next 4 years. That's just an average, so some years will be lower, especially at the beginning and other years will be higher. But our expectation continues to be $5 billion per year. Those numbers -- that $5 billion is gross and the $982 million, the one -- close to $1 billion that you just quoted for the quarter that's also gross.

謝謝你的問題，史黛西。好問題。因此，它讓我們有機會澄清這些問題。因此，首先，在資本支出方面，我們對我們在 2022 年以及今年第一季度迄今取得的進展感到滿意，一切都符合預期。正如我們幾個月前在電話會議上分享的那樣，我們預計未來 4 年的資本支出平均每年將達到 50 億美元。這只是一個平均值，所以有些年份會更低，尤其是在開始的時候，而其他年份會更高。但我們的預期仍然是每年 50 億美元。這些數字——50 億美元是毛收入，9.82 億美元——接近你剛剛引用的那個季度的 10 億美元，這也是毛收入。

We are continuing to accrue for the CHIPS Act benefit. I can tell you about that in a follow-up question, if you like. But the CapEx numbers have been and will continue to be gross numbers.

我們正在繼續累積 CHIPS 法案的福利。如果你願意，我可以在後續問題中告訴你。但資本支出數字一直並將繼續是總數字。

On the second part of your question on depreciation, so we told you that -- at the capital management call that depreciation will increase to about $2.5 billion on or around 2025. We expect this year to be below that linear trend, okay? And that's just the CapEx is coming in as expected, but it's a function of other things essentially when you place the equipment in service and when it starts depreciation, the assumptions that we had on that versus exactly how it's playing out. Do you have a follow-up?

關於你關於折舊的問題的第二部分，所以我們告訴你 - 在資本管理電話會議上，折舊將在 2025 年左右增加到約 25 億美元。我們預計今年將低於該線性趨勢，好嗎？這只是資本支出按預期出現，但它本質上是其他因素的函數，當您將設備投入使用以及當它開始折舊時，我們對此的假設與實際情況的對比。你有跟進嗎？

I do. I'm going to let somebody else ask about the CHIPS Act accrual. I'm going to ask about inventories. So you're -- you're at almost 200 days of inventory. And I think the top end of your target was 190, you said you'd be comfortable above that. So we're kind of there. Are you done building inventory now? I guess, and if that's the case, what happens to fab loadings? I guess, as we go into the end of the year, assuming you're running pretty full right now. Do those fab loadings need to come down, especially given the revenue trajectory and given inventories are sitting pretty close to 200 days?

我願意。我要讓其他人詢問 CHIPS 法案的應計費用。我想問一下庫存。所以你 - 你有將近 200 天的庫存。我認為你的目標上限是 190，你說過你會很舒服。所以我們有點在那裡。你現在完成庫存了嗎？我想，如果是這樣的話，晶圓廠裝貨量會怎樣？我想，當我們進入年底時，假設您現在運行得非常滿。這些晶圓廠的負荷是否需要降低，特別是考慮到收入軌跡和庫存已接近 200 天？

So let me start with reminding everybody our objective for inventory and you can go back to our capital management call, I believe Slide 7. You look at the objective there, if you maintain high levels of customer service, minimize obsolescence, we have a range there. It's just meant to be informative and it's 130 to greater than 200. I just want to clarify that versus the number that you mentioned.

因此，讓我首先提醒大家我們的庫存目標，你可以回到我們的資本管理電話，我相信幻燈片 7。你看看那裡的目標，如果你保持高水平的客戶服務，盡量減少過時，我們有一個範圍那裡。它只是為了提供信息，它是 130 到大於 200。我只是想澄清一下它與你提到的數字的對比。

The more important thing is I refer you to Slide 13 in that deck, and anybody who hasn't seen that, you can download it from our website, go to Slide 13. That shows you how we think about planning for the long term. So through semiconductor, the ups and downs of the semiconductor cycle. And that informs how we manage inventory, also informs that we are investing in CapEx. So we're thinking through the cycles over the long term. But certainly, inventory is one of those things that we take that trend into account. In the near term, we expect to have an upward bias on inventory as we prepare for long-term growth.

更重要的是，我推薦你看那個幻燈片中的幻燈片 13，任何沒有看過它的人，你可以從我們的網站下載它，轉到幻燈片 13。它向你展示了我們如何考慮長期規劃。所以通過半導體，半導體週期的漲跌。這告訴我們如何管理庫存，也告訴我們正在投資資本支出。所以我們正在考慮長期的周期。但可以肯定的是，庫存是我們考慮這一趨勢的因素之一。在短期內，我們預計在為長期增長做準備時，庫存會有上行傾向。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

The first one is specific to industrial and automotive. If I heard you, Dave, I think you said industrial was flattish in Q1. I think it was down 10% in the last quarter. So it seems like it's starting to flatten out, but I just wanted to check if that's the right conclusion. I think auto was up mid-single in both Q4, and I said -- and I thought you said in Q1 as well. So that also seems to be in the right direction.

第一個特定於工業和汽車。戴夫，如果我聽到你的話，我想你說工業在第一季度表現平平。我認為上個季度下降了 10%。所以它似乎開始趨於平緩，但我只是想檢查一下這是否是正確的結論。我認為汽車在第四季度都處於中等水平，我說——我想你在第一季度也說過。所以這似乎也是正確的方向。

So the specific question is, as we look into Q2, how should we think about industrial and auto? Can they say at least kind of flattish? Or do you think that they are also exposed to the macro weakness?

所以具體的問題是，當我們研究第二季度時，我們應該如何看待工業和汽車？他們能說至少有點平淡嗎？還是您認為他們也受到宏觀疲軟的影響？

Yes. So first, confirm that you heard correctly, industrial market was about flat in the first quarter and automotive was up mid-single digits. And as you know, our practice -- when we think about guidance by end market, we only provide color if there's something that we need to highlight to explain what's going on. You've seen us do that multiple times, whether it's end markets or it's regions or something specific that's going on. So as you said, at the midpoint of our guidance, revenue was flat. And -- so when we look strategically at both of those markets, we're very confident that they will continue to add semiconductor content per unit and be great growers for us. So you have a follow-on to that?

是的。因此，首先，確認您沒聽錯，第一季度工業市場基本持平，而汽車市場上漲了中等個位數。正如你所知，我們的做法——當我們考慮終端市場的指導時，我們只會在需要強調的內容來解釋正在發生的事情時提供顏色。您已經看到我們多次這樣做，無論是終端市場還是地區還是正在發生的特定事情。所以正如你所說，在我們指導的中點，收入持平。而且——所以當我們從戰略上審視這兩個市場時，我們非常有信心他們將繼續增加每單位的半導體含量，並成為我們的偉大種植者。那麼你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, Dave, I actually wanted to stay on the same question because there is a perception that industrial and auto demand is kind of this last shoot to drop in semiconductors. And when I look at what your competitors or -- right, peers are seeing in Analog and microcontroller market, they are noticing a level of stability and strength, and that's what I want to confirm with TI. That are you seeing the same thing as you go into Q2? Because, yes, consumer is weak, right, enterprise is weak, that is well known.

是的，戴夫，我實際上想留在同一個問題上，因為人們認為工業和汽車需求是半導體的最後一次下降。當我查看您的競爭對手或 - 對，同行在模擬和微控制器市場看到的情況時，他們注意到一定程度的穩定性和實力，這就是我想與 TI 確認的。你在進入第二季度時看到的是一樣的東西嗎？因為，是的，消費者是弱者，對，企業是弱者，這是眾所周知的。

But specifically auto and industrial, do you think they are now trending in the right direction in Q2? Or do you think that you are in front of some weakness and inventory adjustment in those markets also?

但特別是汽車和工業，您認為它們現在在第二季度正朝著正確的方向發展嗎？或者您是否認為您也面臨這些市場的一些疲軟和庫存調整？

Yes. And again, we're not trying to provide guidance by specific markets. The overall outlook is roughly flat into second quarter. If we had something specific to call out, we would. And I think our approach to building closer relationships with customers, what we're doing in our channels, our product portfolio continues to strengthen, the capacity that we add, are all things that continue to put us in a great position to service customers and service them well over time. But -- yes, so we're just not going to go into the specifics of each market in the second quarter. So thanks for those questions.

是的。再說一遍，我們並不是要按特定市場提供指導。第二季度的總體前景大致持平。如果我們有具體的事情要說，我們會的。而且我認為我們與客戶建立更緊密關係的方法，我們在渠道中所做的事情，我們的產品組合不斷加強，我們增加的能力，所有這些都使我們繼續處於為客戶提供服務的有利位置，並且隨著時間的推移為他們提供良好的服務。但是 - 是的，所以我們不打算在第二季度進入每個市場的細節。謝謝你提出這些問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Dave, I guess I wanted to ask sort of where you think you are in the cycle. Because you have less exposure than many of your peers. So in theory, you should be farther along the inventory correction and you're more connected in real-time to demand. So when you sort of look at your customer inventory levels, where do you think we are? Do you think that we're sort of in the late innings of the correction for you because you are a bit more connected to demand in real time?

戴夫，我想我想問的是你認為你在周期中的什麼位置。因為你的曝光率低於許多同齡人。因此從理論上講，您應該更深入地進行庫存修正，並且與需求的實時聯繫更加緊密。因此，當您查看客戶庫存水平時，您認為我們處於什麼水平？您是否認為我們處於修正的後期階段，因為您與實時需求的聯繫更加緊密？

Yes. I think, Tim, as you know, this is the first time that our markets, not only for us but the industry have behaved differently as we've gone into this cycle. So if you look at personal electronics, we began seeing weakness in personal electronics back second quarter a year ago, right? So we're now into our fourth quarter of weaker demand. The other markets, with the exception of automotive, began weakening the quarter before last. So we're a couple of quarters in on that. So -- and of course, automotive has remained strong through last quarter.

是的。我認為，蒂姆，正如你所知，這是我們的市場第一次，不僅對我們而且整個行業在我們進入這個週期時表現不同。所以如果你看看個人電子產品，我們在一年前的第二季度就開始看到個人電子產品的疲軟，對吧？所以我們現在進入需求疲軟的第四季度。其他市場，除了汽車，上個季度開始走弱。所以我們已經有幾個季度了。所以 - 當然，汽車在上個季度一直保持強勁。

So you put all that together, I think it depends on which market you're looking at. If you're in PE, you're obviously closer to the bottom than you are to the top. So I think our practice, we don't try to predict where the bottom or the top is. It really draws -- draw your attention back to Slide 13 that we talked about that longer-term trend is what we're planning on and what we believe we can look at to inform our decisions. Do you have a follow-on?

所以你把所有這些放在一起，我認為這取決於你在看哪個市場。如果你在 PE 中，你顯然更接近底部而不是頂部。所以我認為我們的做法，我們不會試圖預測底部或頂部在哪裡。它真的很吸引人——讓你的注意力回到幻燈片 13，我們談到了長期趨勢是我們正在計劃的，我們相信我們可以通過觀察來為我們的決定提供信息。你有後續嗎？

I do, Dave. Yes. So I know the SIA data can be noisy and you always say to look at things on kind of a TTM basis. And if you sort of roll it back, it looks like your share has gone down in Analog roughly 200 basis points versus where it peaked in the early part of COVID.

我知道，戴夫。是的。所以我知道 SIA 數據可能很嘈雜，你總是說要以 TTM 為基礎來看待事物。如果你稍微回滾一下，看起來你在 Analog 中的份額比 COVID 早期的峰值下降了大約 200 個基點。

So as you sort of forensically go back and try to figure out what's happened, do you think that's entirely based on supply? So in other words, if you didn't have the shortages that you did you think that you wouldn't have lost that share? I'm just kind of wondering, as you look back at the numbers, how you forensically try to explain that share loss relative to the industry data?

所以當你有點法醫回去試圖弄清楚發生了什麼時，你認為這完全基於供應嗎？所以換句話說，如果你沒有短缺，你認為你不會失去那部分份額嗎？我只是想知道，當你回顧這些數字時，你如何從法證上試圖解釋相對於行業數據的份額損失？

Yes. As we talked about, that's something we think you have to look at over time, if you go back to the prior year is with the pandemic started, you remember, we made some decisions to continue to run our factories and build long-lived inventory and those decisions served us very well. So as we went through each quarter as customers really expedited across the board, we could respond to that and ship them product. And in the short term, that probably helped us with the numbers when you compare it against what the industry was doing.

是的。正如我們所說，這是我們認為你必須隨著時間的推移而考慮的事情，如果你回到前一年是大流行病開始的時候，你還記得，我們做出了一些決定來繼續運營我們的工廠並建立長期存貨這些決定對我們很有幫助。因此，當我們經歷每個季度時，當客戶真正全面加速時，我們可以對此做出回應並向他們運送產品。在短期內，當您將其與行業的做法進行比較時，這可能對我們的數字有所幫助。

So as we go into the following year, of course, those are tougher compares. But we have a lot of practices that I think are different than many of our peers. As an example, through that period, we've moved to more closer direct relationships with customers. We believe that, that's giving us much better insight. We can see their demand more clearly. We can see what they need, both short term and long term, much better.

因此，當我們進入下一年時，當然，這些比較更加艱難。但我們有很多做法，我認為與我們的許多同行不同。例如，在那段時間裡，我們與客戶建立了更緊密的直接關係。我們相信，這給了我們更好的洞察力。我們可以更清楚地看到他們的需求。我們可以更好地了解他們的短期和長期需求。

Also I'd say that as we were moving through a period where most of our customers were reducing their inventory to align with their needs, we haven't employed things like long-term sales agreements or non-cancelable, non-reschedulable contracts. So customers aren't taking product that they don't need. So that isn't share gains, it's just -- I think for us, we want to be as easy to do business with as we can. And those -- I think all those practices are setting us up well to continue to gain share. So thank you, Tim.

另外我要說的是，由於我們正在經歷一個時期，大多數客戶都在減少庫存以滿足他們的需求，因此我們沒有採用長期銷售協議或不可取消、不可重新安排的合同之類的東西。所以客戶不會拿走他們不需要的產品。所以這不是分享收益，它只是 - 我認為對我們來說，我們希望盡可能輕鬆地開展業務。而那些 - 我認為所有這些做法都讓我們很好地繼續獲得份額。謝謝你，蒂姆。

Our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Rafael, I just want to make sure I got the depreciation answer right. Obviously, it has implications for gross margin. And the run rate -- should we assume the first quarter run rate because that is a very positive implication. And you said it would be lower than the linear, but how much lower, I think we were all modeling $1.5 billion is kind of the number that we had. What's the right way to think about that, please?

拉斐爾，我只是想確保我得到正確的折舊答案。顯然，它對毛利率有影響。還有運行率——我們是否應該假設第一季度的運行率，因為這是一個非常積極的含義。你說它會低於線性，但我認為我們都在模擬 15 億美元，這就是我們所擁有的數字。請問，正確的思考方式是什麼？

We're not breaking down specifics on that. But if you were going to do it linearly, you would get to the $1.4 billion unchanged and then $500 million plus on top of that every year until you get to about $2.5 billion in 2025. So it's going to run lower than that, yes, this year, and we'll give you an update the next capital management on subsequent years.

我們不會對此進行詳細說明。但如果你打算線性地做，你會達到 14 億美元不變，然後每年再加上 5 億美元，直到 2025 年達到大約 25 億美元。所以它會比這低，是的，今年，我們將為您提供隨後幾年的下一個資本管理更新。

Got it. Got it. Just a clarification and not a follow-up. So if you look at gross margin last year versus this year, the 3 factors at least. I just want to make sure I'm doing it right is the flow-through and the fall-through that you talk about. And then the offsets would be LFAB is now going from restructuring into COGS and then apples-to-apples, I add a higher depreciation. Is that the right way? Am I thinking about the right 3 parts?

知道了。知道了。只是澄清而不是後續行動。因此，如果你看看去年與今年的毛利率，至少有 3 個因素。我只是想確保我做的是正確的，就是你所說的流程和失敗。然後抵消將是 LFAB 現在從重組到 COGS，然後是蘋果到蘋果，我增加了更高的折舊。那是正確的方法嗎？我在考慮正確的 3 個部分嗎？

Yes. Those are the right 3 parts. And of course, this is over the long term. Any one quarter, things -- there are many moving pieces, for example, mix always plays a factor, you have more auto and industrial that's different than personal electronics, right? But at a high level, over a long enough period, yes, those are the trends that -- the factors you should take into account when modeling this.

是的。這些是正確的 3 個部分。當然，這是長期的。任何一個季度，事情——有很多移動的部分，例如，混合總是起著一個因素，你有更多的汽車和工業與個人電子產品不同，對吧？但是在高層次上，在足夠長的時間內，是的，這些趨勢是——在建模時應該考慮的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

I want to follow up Ambrish's and talk about gross margin, but on a sequential basis, the gross margin held in better than I expected. It did go down sequentially, but not even as much as it would have if you just took the LFAB expense out of OpEx and put it into COGS. So were there any unique offsets to that? And probably more importantly, any unique offsets we need to consider as we think going forward? And I know, Rafael, you don't guide to gross margin specifically.

我想跟進 Ambrish 並談談毛利率，但在連續的基礎上，毛利率比我預期的要好。它確實按順序下降，但甚至沒有將 LFAB 費用從 OpEx 中取出並放入 COGS 中那麼多。那麼對此有什麼獨特的抵消嗎？可能更重要的是，我們在思考未來時需要考慮任何獨特的補償嗎？我知道，拉斐爾，你沒有具體指導毛利率。

Yes. No. I would tell you, it was similar to Ambrish's question, high level, think of the model we've given you is 70% to 75% fall-through. But that in any one quarter, even if it's on a year-on-year basis, but especially sequentially on relatively small changes in revenue, that's not going to work very precisely, right?

是的。不，我會告訴你，這類似於 Ambrish 的問題，高層次，想想我們給你的模型是 70% 到 75% 的失敗率。但是在任何一個季度，即使它是按年計算的，但尤其是在收入變化相對較小的情況下，這不會非常精確，對吧？

So -- but over a long enough time, that works well. As we just talked about, you had the depreciation. And then in this particular quarter, you have to adjust for the costs that were in restructuring that were for Lehi that now go to -- primarily to cost of revenue.

所以 - 但經過足夠長的時間，效果很好。正如我們剛才談到的，你有折舊。然後在這個特定的季度，你必須調整 Lehi 的重組成本，這些成本現在主要是收入成本。

Now there are other factors that are going to play, for example, and I mentioned it to Ambrish a second ago, but mix is a factor. So you get a quarter with a lot more industrial, automotive and less personal electronics, that plays into it. And the final one, depreciation doesn't necessarily immediately flow through the P&L because it needs to be matched to inventory.

現在還有其他因素會發揮作用，例如，我剛才向 Ambrish 提到過，但混合是一個因素。所以你得到一個四分之一有更多的工業，汽車和更少的個人電子產品，發揮它。最後一個，折舊不一定會立即通過損益表流動，因為它需要與庫存相匹配。

So that generally flows through inventory first and then -- so that sometimes delays the impact of -- the true impact of depreciation to the gross margin. But clearly, depreciation, as I mentioned earlier, is increasing, so it's coming. So over a long enough time, multiple quarters, certain years, you need to factor it as we have talked about, right, the fall-through and the increase in depreciation.

因此，這通常首先流經庫存，然後——因此有時會延遲——折舊對毛利率的真正影響。但很明顯，正如我之前提到的，折舊正在增加，所以它即將到來。所以在足夠長的時間裡，多個季度，某些年，你需要考慮它，正如我們所討論的那樣，對，跌倒和折舊增加。

Do you have follow-up, Ross?

羅斯，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, I do. I'll just pivot to round up that CHIPS Act question from earlier. Rafael, could you give us an update on what the cumulative accruals are for that? And probably equally importantly, when does that likely flow through the income statement?

是的，我願意。我將轉而總結之前的 CHIPS 法案問題。拉斐爾，您能否向我們介紹一下累積應計費用的最新情況？可能同樣重要的是，這可能在什麼時候流經損益表？

Yes. So stepping back, CHIPS Act has an investment tax credit, ITC, and a grant. There's 2 components that have the potential to benefit us. If you go to our capital management document, we talked about those, and we said we are planning on the benefits from the ITC, and we're accruing those benefits. On the grant, we're not because the grants are highly discretionary. It's up to the Department of Commerce. So on those -- we're not counting on those, but we're applying to those grants, and we're in the process of submitting those applications and we're asking for everything we can get there. But right now counting on nothing.

是的。所以退一步說，CHIPS 法案有投資稅收抵免、ITC 和贈款。有 2 個組件有可能使我們受益。如果你去看看我們的資本管理文件，我們談到了這些，我們說我們正在計劃從 ITC 中獲得好處，我們正在積累這些好處。關於贈款，我們不是因為贈款是高度自由裁量的。這取決於商務部。所以在這些方面——我們不指望那些，但我們正在申請這些贈款，我們正在提交這些申請，我們正在要求我們能做到的一切。但現在指望什麼。

Now let me just focus on the ITC, which is the one that we are booking on the balance sheet. This last quarter, we accrued another $200 million benefit. So that's on top of the roughly $400 million last year. So now we have a total benefit that we have accrued of $600 million. That number will continue increasing for the rest of the year, and that's a 25% of qualifying assets in the United States. So we'll continue to increase that number over the year.

現在讓我只關注 ITC，這是我們在資產負債表上登記的那個。上個季度，我們又獲得了 2 億美元的收益。所以這是在去年大約 4 億美元的基礎上。因此，現在我們累積的總收益為 6 億美元。這一數字將在今年剩餘時間繼續增加，占美國合格資產的 25%。因此，我們將在這一年中繼續增加這個數字。

And then what happens is we benefit in a couple of ways. One, the P&L, that accrual comes out of the PP&E, property, plant and equipment basis. So now you have a lower basis to depreciate. So their depreciation is going to be lower going forward. We're already getting a small benefit of that this year, but it's in a couple of million dollars, but that will grow over time as those -- that equipment goes into -- is placed in service and now depreciated at a lower rate.

然後發生的事情是我們以幾種方式受益。一是 P&L，應計費用來自 PP&E、財產、廠房和設備基礎。所以現在你有一個較低的折舊基礎。因此，它們的折舊率未來會更低。今年我們已經從中獲得了一點好處，但它是幾百萬美元，但隨著時間的推移，隨著這些設備投入使用並且現在以較低的折舊率折舊，這個數字會隨著時間的推移而增長。

More importantly, the cash benefit associated with that will get the following year. So anything that we accrue this year and -- in '22 and is placed in service in 2023, we will get that cash at the end of 2024, okay? And we're -- that's what we're planning on. I think that answers your question fairly well.

更重要的是，與之相關的現金收益將在下一年獲得。所以我們今年積累的任何東西——在 22 年並在 2023 年投入使用，我們將在 2024 年底獲得現金，好嗎？我們——這就是我們的計劃。我認為這很好地回答了你的問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

Just some color on the inventory correction you're seeing out there. So do you think that we're through the worst of it? Maybe talk about where it's, I guess, lower or where it's higher? Do you think that it's getting better at this point or getting worse? Or can we not tell?

您在那裡看到的庫存修正只是一些顏色。那麼你認為我們已經度過了最糟糕的時期嗎？也許談談它在哪裡，我猜，較低或較高？你認為在這一點上它是在變好還是在變壞？還是我們不能說？

Yes. I think, Chris, this is one of the previous questions, somewhat similar, right? I think you have to look at it by market. Certainly, in personal electronics, being in the fourth quarter of the weakness would indicate you're probably closer to the bottom. There's no guarantee of that, but you're probably closer than in other markets, right? So that just isn't something that we try to predict.

是的。我想，克里斯，這是之前的問題之一，有點相似，對吧？我認為你必須按市場來看待它。當然，在個人電子產品領域，處於疲軟的第四季度表明您可能更接近底部。不能保證這一點，但你可能比其他市場更接近，對吧？所以這不是我們試圖預測的事情。

And what we do use to kind of guide how we think about things and where we make investments is that gray line on the chart that we've talked about. That's really what's important is being ready for the longer-term growth. And that's where our focus is. Do you have a follow-on?

我們確實用來指導我們如何思考事物以及我們在哪裡進行投資的是我們已經討論過的圖表上的灰色線。真正重要的是為長期增長做好準備。這就是我們的重點所在。你有後續嗎？

Yes. Can you just talk about the linearity of bookings during the quarter and how your backlog looks now versus, I guess, 3 months ago? And what does that imply for the second half of the year? .

是的。你能談談本季度預訂的線性度，以及你現在的積壓情況與我猜的 3 個月前相比如何？這對下半年意味著什麼？ .

Yes. So our linearity was stronger in the last month of the quarter. And in backlog, I would say, as you know, we've got sales flowing through ti.com. We've got sales that are on consignment where we get direct feeds and we don't actually carry a backlog. So we just don't put a lot of emphasis on the backlog, overall, I think compared to many of our peers. But we've got really good visibility because of our close relationships with customers. The fact that we're carrying, we're owning and controlling that inventory more directly and so actually, we've got -- we believe that gives us really great visibility on demand.

是的。所以我們的線性在本季度的最後一個月更強。在積壓訂單中，我會說，如您所知，我們的銷售流經 ti.com。我們的銷售是寄售的，我們直接提供給我們，實際上我們並沒有積壓。因此，總的來說，與我們的許多同行相比，我們只是不太重視積壓。但由於我們與客戶的密切關係，我們的知名度非常高。事實上，我們正在攜帶，我們更直接地擁有和控制庫存，所以實際上，我們已經 - 我們相信這讓我們能夠真正了解需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Joe Moore。

Great. I know you were pretty early to signal some of the headwinds that came in China from the COVID lockdowns. What are you seeing now as the economies reemerge? Are you starting to see that as potential strength going into the rest of the year?

偉大的。我知道你很早就發出了 COVID 封鎖給中國帶來的一些不利因素的信號。隨著經濟復甦，您現在看到了什麼？您是否開始將其視為進入今年剩餘時間的潛在力量？

Yes, Joe, I would say that we continue to believe the best way to look at our revenue and the changes in revenue is more easily understood by looking at end markets, but there wasn't any significant change that we saw inside of China this last quarter. Do you have a follow-on?

是的，喬，我會說我們仍然相信最好的方式來看待我們的收入，通過觀察終端市場更容易理解收入的變化，但我們在中國內部沒有看到任何重大變化上個季度。你有後續嗎？

Sure. And then the down 30% in personal electronics and in enterprise both. Does that reflect any kind of share shift as -- I know that you do have people multi-sourcing more in areas like that in phones and PCs and servers and whatnot. Are you seeing that as any kind of a headwind? Or do you think that's just what the market was down in the first quarter? .

當然。然後是個人電子產品和企業都下降了 30%。這是否反映了任何一種份額轉移——我知道你確實讓人們在電話、個人電腦和服務器等領域進行更多采購。你認為這是一種逆風嗎？還是您認為這就是第一季度市場下跌的原因？ .

Yes. I think that as we've talked about before, sure, doesn't move quickly. We're in a position as we're building inventory to support higher demand if it was to materialize. So again, we think that's mostly reflective of what's going on in the market. I think that's consistent with what you see from customers and other data that you can see that's out there. And I believe we've got time for one more caller, please.

是的。我認為正如我們之前所討論的那樣，當然不會很快採取行動。如果要實現，我們正在建立庫存以支持更高的需求。因此，我們再次認為這主要反映了市場上正在發生的事情。我認為這與您從客戶那裡看到的以及您可以看到的其他數據一致。我相信我們有時間再請一位來電者。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 和 Evercore ISI。

I just wanted to clarify and confirm some of the statements from earlier. So your gross margins came a little better than what we thought for March. And so just curious, are you still on track for that $1.5 billion depreciation for the year? And were there any changes in kind of the timing of installation of equipment? Are you still seeing kind of a tight supply there?

我只是想澄清和確認之前的一些說法。所以你們的毛利率比我們 3 月份的預期要好一些。所以很好奇，您是否仍有望實現今年 15 億美元的貶值？設備安裝時間是否有任何變化？你還看到供應緊張嗎？

Yes. So let me address that. First, CapEx. We're very pleased with our CapEx has come in. We did about $1 billion in the quarter. We talked a couple of months ago that we expect about $5 billion per year for the next 4 years, that's an average. So some years will be less, some years will be more. So $1 billion per quarter. That's obviously a $4 billion run rate for the year. So somewhere between $4 billion and $5 billion for this year would be about right on the CapEx. And that's coming in just as expected.

是的。所以讓我來解決這個問題。首先，資本支出。我們對資本支出的到來感到非常高興。本季度我們做了大約 10 億美元。幾個月前我們談到，我們預計未來 4 年每年約有 50 億美元，這是一個平均值。所以有些年會少一些，有些年會多一些。所以每季度 10 億美元。這顯然是今年 40 億美元的運行率。因此，今年 40 億至 50 億美元的資本支出大約是正確的。正如預期的那樣。

Depreciation, we -- what we talked about a couple of months ago at the call was we expect it to increase to $2.5 billion at some point in the future in 2025 -- on or about 2025. We -- but this year, we expect that trend to be below linear. So instead of $500 million increase per year from the starting point of '22, it will be less than that in 2023. I think Ambrish had the specific number on that. We're not disclosing that at this point, but I would just tell you look at -- we just did $265 million for the quarter. So you can do your own math of -- that was $249 million in the previous quarter. So you can think of that and come up with a decent approximation of where that may end up, and we'll give you more details, obviously, in subsequent quarters. Do you have a follow-up?

折舊，我們 - 我們幾個月前在電話會議上談到的是我們預計它會在 2025 年的某個時候增加到 25 億美元 - 大約在 2025 年左右。我們 - 但今年，我們預計該趨勢低於線性。因此，從 22 年開始每年增加 5 億美元，而不是在 2023 年增加。我認為 Ambrish 對此有具體數字。我們目前沒有透露這一點，但我只想告訴你看看——我們本季度剛剛完成了 2.65 億美元。所以你可以自己計算一下——上一季度為 2.49 億美元。所以你可以考慮這一點，並得出一個可能結束的近似值，顯然，我們會在隨後的幾個季度中為你提供更多細節。你有跟進嗎？

Yes, please, a longer-term question. One of the overriding themes for the last couple of quarters on the semi equipment side is the vast spending by lagging edge domestic China with an obvious focus kind of on the 90-nanometer plus. But actually, I shouldn't discount the 28-nanometer plus part of the world.

是的，請問一個長期問題。過去幾個季度半設備方面最重要的主題之一是落後的中國國內的巨額支出，其中明顯的重點是 90 納米以上。但實際上，我不應該忽視世界上 28 納米以上的部分。

So as you think about regionalization and as you think about perhaps a rising kind of competitor in the China landscape looking out over the next 5-plus years, how are you thinking about the pros and cons and how you'll compete kind of in that environment?

因此，當您考慮區域化時，當您考慮未來 5 年多中國市場中可能會出現的競爭對手時，您如何看待利弊以及您將如何參與競爭環境？

Yes, C.J., thanks for that question. I'd say that when you look at our products and markets, we've got 4 competitive advantages that we continue to invest in, I think that make us stronger and different than our competitors. And we've talked about them before, right? The first is the manufacturing and technology. Owning and controlling those assets we think will be of growing importance and where they are in the world, also, we believe, will be a benefit to us as well.

是的，C.J.，謝謝你提出這個問題。我想說的是，當你看看我們的產品和市場時，我們有 4 個我們繼續投資的競爭優勢，我認為這使我們比我們的競爭對手更強大和不同。我們之前談過它們，對吧？首先是製造和技術。我們認為，擁有和控制這些資產將變得越來越重要，而且我們相信，它們在世界上的位置也將對我們有利。

Second is the broad -- our broad product portfolio. So competitors that we have around the world, but especially in China, usually only compete with us in a very, very narrow slice of our product portfolio. That said, we've competed with those companies, in some cases, for a couple of decades now. So competition there isn't new. And -- so they're good competitors. We can learn from them. We're not dismissive of them, and we close -- we very closely track and I believe the number somewhere around 75 different competitors around the world that we'll compete with.

其次是廣泛——我們廣泛的產品組合。因此，我們在世界各地的競爭對手，尤其是在中國，通常只在我們產品組合中非常非常小的一部分與我們競爭。也就是說，在某些情況下，我們已經與這些公司競爭了幾十年。所以競爭並不新鮮。而且 - 所以他們是很好的競爭對手。我們可以向他們學習。我們並不輕視他們，我們關閉了——我們非常密切地跟踪，我相信我們將與世界各地大約 75 個不同的競爭對手競爭。

The third competitive advantage is the reach of our market channels. And especially when you look at some of the smaller competitors in China, they just don't have the reach. They don't have the breadth of portfolio that attracts customers for engagement and that just gives us better insight.

第三個競爭優勢是我們的市場渠道。尤其是當你看看中國的一些較小的競爭對手時，他們就是沒有影響力。他們沒有廣泛的產品組合來吸引客戶參與，而這只會給我們更好的洞察力。

And then the last is diversity and longevity. So there's not one market or technology that we're dependent on to provide market share lift. Now we'll be dependent on all of them. And sometimes in the short term, that may favor one competitor versus another. But longer term, as we compete broadly in all the markets, we think that, that will translate into long-term and sticky share gains. So overall, we're pleased and excited about where we are from a position standpoint, whether we're looking at our traditional competitors here in the U.S. or Europe and as well as those in China. So thank you very much. And I'll turn it over to Rafael to wrap this up.

最後是多樣性和長壽。因此，我們不依賴任何一個市場或技術來提升市場份額。現在我們將依賴所有這些。有時在短期內，這可能有利於一個競爭對手而不是另一個競爭對手。但從長遠來看，隨著我們在所有市場上廣泛競爭，我們認為，這將轉化為長期和粘性的份額收益。因此，總的來說，無論我們是在美國、歐洲還是在中國尋找我們的傳統競爭對手，我們對我們所處的位置感到高興和興奮。非常感謝。我會把它交給 Rafael 來總結。

Yes. Thanks, Dave. Let me wrap up by reiterating what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate long-term value for owners is the growth of free cash flow per share..

是的。謝謝，戴夫。讓我重申一下我們之前說過的話。我們的核心是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終，我們的目標和衡量進展並為所有者創造長期價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的增長。

While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our 3 ambitions. We will act like owners who will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we are personally proud to be a part of and would one as our neighbor. When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you, and have a good evening.

在我們努力實現我們的目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的 3 個雄心壯志。我們將像擁有公司數十年的所有者一樣行事。我們將適應瞬息萬變的世界並取得成功。我們將成為一家我們個人引以為豪的公司，並願意成為我們的鄰居。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和所有者都會受益。謝謝你，祝你有個愉快的夜晚。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，此時你們可以掛斷電話。感謝您的參與。