德州儀器 (TXN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. I'm Dave Pahl, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

歡迎參加德州儀器 2023 年第一季財報電話會議。我是投資人關係主管戴夫‧帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起出席活動的還有我們的財務長拉斐爾‧利扎迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路直播，可透過我們的網站存取。此外，今天的電話會議正在錄音，可透過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件中包含的有關前瞻性聲明的通知，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide some insight into first quarter's revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the second quarter of 2023.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將簡單回顧一下本季的情況。接下來，我將對第一季的營收結果提供一些見解，並介紹一些我們在終端市場看到的細節。最後，拉斐爾將介紹 2023 年第二季的財務表現與指引。

Starting with a quick overview of the first quarter:

首先簡單回顧一下第一季：

Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $4.4 billion, a decrease of 6% sequentially and 11% year over year. Analog revenue declined 14%, Embedded Processing grew 6%, and our "Other" segment declined 16% from the year-ago quarter.

本季營收大致符合預期，為 44 億美元，季減 6%，年減 11%。模擬收入下降 14%，嵌入式處理成長 6%，而我們的「其他」部門比去年同期下降了 16%。

As expected, our results reflect weaker demand in all end markets with the exception of automotive. As mentioned last quarter, a component of the weaker demand was inventory reductions by our customers, which we expect to continue in the second quarter.

如預期，我們的結果反映出除汽車市場外所有終端市場的需求均有所減弱。正如上個季度所提到的，需求疲軟的一個原因是我們客戶減少了庫存，我們預計這種情況將在第二季持續下去。

Now I'll provide some insight into our first quarter revenue by market. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance, as it's more informative at this time.

現在，我將按市場介紹我們第一季的收入。與上一季類似，我將專注於連續表現，因為此時它更具參考價值。

First, the industrial market was about flat. The automotive market was up mid-single digits. Personal electronics declined about 30%, as we continued to see broad-based weakness. Next, communications equipment was down mid-teens. And finally, enterprise systems was down about 30%.

一是工業市場基本持平。汽車市場成長了中等個位數。個人電子產品下跌約 30%，因為我們繼續看到整體疲軟。其次，通訊設備的運作狀態下降到了十幾歲。最後，企業系統下降了約 30%。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的展望。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

As Dave mentioned, first quarter revenue was $4.4 billion, down 11% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.9 billion, or 65% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit margin decreased 480 basis points.

正如戴夫所說，第一季的營收為 44 億美元，較去年同期下降 11%。本季毛利為 29 億美元，佔營收的 65%。與去年同期相比，毛利率下降了480個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $929 million, up 14% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.5 billion, or 18% of revenue.

本季營運費用為 9.29 億美元，較去年同期成長 14%，與預期大致相符。過去 12 個月，營運費用為 35 億美元，佔營收的 18%。

Operating profit was $1.9 billion in the quarter, or 44% of revenue, and was down 25% from a year-ago quarter.

本季營業利潤為 19 億美元，佔營收的 44%，較去年同期下降 25%。

Net income in the first quarter was $1.7 billion, or $1.85 per share. Earnings per share included a 3-cent benefit for items that were not in our original guide.

第一季淨收入為 17 億美元，即每股 1.85 美元。每股收益包括我們原始指南中未包含的項目的 3 美分收益。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.2 billion in the quarter and $7.7 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $982 million in the quarter and $3.3 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $4.4 billion.

現在，讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，從現金產生開始。本季經營現金流為 12 億美元，過去 12 個月經營現金流為 77 億美元。本季的資本支出為 9.82 億美元，過去 12 個月的資本支出為 33 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 44 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends and repurchased about $100 million of our stock. In total, we have returned $7.5 billion in the past 12 months.

本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息，並回購了約 1 億美元的股票。總的來說，我們在過去 12 個月中歸還了 75 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.5 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter. In the quarter, we issued $1.4 billion of debt. Total debt outstanding was $10.2 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.2%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第一季末，現金和短期投資為 95 億美元。本季度，我們發行了 14 億美元的債務。未償還債務總額為 102 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.2%。

Inventory dollars were up $531 million from the prior quarter to $3.3 billion, and days were 195, up 38 days sequentially.

庫存金額較上一季增加 5.31 億美元，達到 33 億美元，庫存天數為 195 天，較上一季增加 38 天。

For the second quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.17 billion to $4.53 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.62 to $1.88.

對於第二季度，我們預計 TI 收入將在 41.7 億美元至 45.3 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.62 美元至 1.88 美元之間。

Lastly, we continue to expect our 2023 effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%.

最後，我們繼續預期 2023 年的有效稅率約為 13% 至 14%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們持續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續實現每股自由現金流的成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open up the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以接聽問題了。 （操作員指令） 操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯科（Stacy Rasgon）。

For my first one, I just wanted to dig into CapEx and depreciation. So you did CapEx of $982 million in the quarter. I just -- first, can you just clarify, that's the gross number without any of the tax credits? And I guess, assuming that's true, both the CapEx and the depreciation number in the quarter are running well below the run rate there or the annualized number that you have given at the capital management, CapEx should have been about $5 billion for the year, depreciation, maybe $1.5 million. So am I right in assuming that it implies a fairly substantial ramp into the back half and the end of the year for both those metrics, CapEx and depreciation?

對於我的第一個，我只是想深入研究資本支出和折舊。因此，您本季的資本支出為 9.82 億美元。我只是——首先，您能否澄清一下，這是不包含任何稅收抵免的總數嗎？我想，假設這是真的，本季的資本支出和折舊數字都遠低於那裡的運作率或您在資本管理中給出的年化數字，資本支出全年應該約為 50 億美元，折舊大概為 150 萬美元。那麼，我是否可以正確地假設，這意味著下半年和年底這兩個指標（資本支出和折舊）都會出現相當大的成長？

So thanks for your questions, Stacy. Good question there. It gives us a chance to clarify those. So first, on CapEx, we're pleased with the progress that we've made both in 2022, but also year-to-date, first quarter of this year, everything is in line with expectations. As we shared on the call a couple of months ago, we expect CapEx to average $5 billion per year for the next four years. That's just an average, so some years will be lower, especially at the beginning, and other years will be higher. But our expectation continues to be $5 billion per year. Those numbers -- that $5 billion is gross, and the $982 million -- the one -- close to $1 billion that you just quoted for the quarter -- that's also gross.

謝謝你的提問，史黛西。好問題。這給了我們一個澄清這些問題的機會。首先，在資本支出方面，我們對 2022 年的進展感到滿意，而今年迄今為止，也就是今年第一季度，一切都符合預期。正如我們幾個月前的電話會議所說，我們預計未來四年的資本支出平均每年為 50 億美元。這只是一個平均值，因此有些年份會較低，特別是在開始的時候，而其他年份會較高。但我們的預期仍然是每年 50 億美元。這些數字 - 50 億美元是毛額，還有 9.82 億美元 - 接近您剛才提到的本季度的 10 億美元 - 這也是毛額。

We are continuing to accrue for the CHIPS Act benefit. I can tell you about that in a follow-up question, if you like. But the CapEx numbers have been and will continue to be gross numbers.

我們將繼續享受《CHIPS法案》的福利。如果您願意的話，我可以在後續的問題中告訴您這個問題。但資本支出數字一直是總額，並且將繼續是總額。

On the second part of your question on depreciation, so we told you that -- at the capital management call that depreciation will increase to about $2.5 billion on or around 2025. We expect this year to be below that linear trend, okay? And that's just the CapEx is coming in as expected, but it's a function of other things, essentially when you place the equipment in service and when it starts depreciation, the assumptions that we had on that versus exactly how it's playing out. Do you have a follow-up?

關於折舊問題的第二部分，我們在資本管理電話會議上告訴過您，到 2025 年左右，折舊額將增加到約 25 億美元。這只是資本支出按預期到來，但它還取決於其他因素，本質上是當您將設備投入使用時以及當設備開始折舊時，我們對此的假設與其實際結果之間的關係。你有後續行動嗎？

I do. I'm going to let somebody else ask about the CHIPS Act accrual. I'm going to ask about inventories. So you're -- you're at almost 200 days of inventory. And I think the top end of your target was 190. You said you'd be comfortable above that. So we're kind of there. Are you done building inventory now? I guess, and if that's the case, what happens to fab loadings? I guess, as we go into the end of the year, assuming you're running pretty full right now. Do those fab loadings need to come down, especially given the revenue trajectory and given inventories are sitting pretty close to 200 days?

我願意。我打算讓其他人詢問有關 CHIPS 法案的累積情況。我要問有關庫存的問題。所以你的庫存量接近 200 天。我認為您的最高目標應該是 190。所以我們就到那兒了。您現在完成庫存了嗎？我想，如果是這樣的話，晶圓廠的負荷會發生什麼事呢？我想，隨著我們進入年底，假設你現在已經忙得不可開交了。這些晶圓廠的負荷是否需要降低，特別是考慮到收入軌跡和庫存接近 200 天？

So let me start with reminding everybody our objective for inventory. You can go back to our capital management call, I believe slide 7. You look at the objective there, to maintain high levels of customer service, minimize obsolescence. We have a range there. It's just meant to be informative, and it's 130 to greater than 200. I just want to clarify that, versus the number that you mentioned.

因此，首先讓我提醒大家我們的庫存目標。您可以回到我們的資本管理電話會議，我相信是第 7 頁。我們在那裡有一個靶場。這只是為了提供信息，數字是 130 到 200 以上。

The more important thing is, I refer you to slide 13 in that deck, and anybody who hasn't seen that, you can download it from our website, go to slide 13. That shows you how we think about planning for the long term, so through semiconductor -- the ups and downs of the semiconductor cycle. And that informs how we manage inventory, also informs that we are investing in CapEx. So we're thinking through the cycles over the long term. But certainly, inventory is one of those things that we take that trend into account. In the near term, we expect to have an upward bias on inventory as we prepare for long-term growth.

更重要的是，我請你看一下那張幻燈片中的第 13 張，任何沒看過的人都可以從我們的網站上下載，翻到第 13 張幻燈片。這告訴我們如何管理庫存，也告訴我們如何投資資本支出。所以我們正在從長遠角度考慮這個週期。但可以肯定的是，庫存是我們考慮這一趨勢的因素之一。短期內，我們預計庫存將出現上升趨勢，因為我們正在為長期成長做準備。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

The first one is specific to industrial and automotive. If I heard you, Dave, I think you said industrial was flattish in Q1. I think it was down 10% in the last quarter. So it seems like it's starting to flatten out, but I just wanted to check if that's the right conclusion. I think auto was up mid-single in both Q4, and I said -- and I thought you said in Q1 as well. So that also seems to be in the right direction.

第一個是針對工業和汽車的。戴夫，如果我沒聽錯，我想您說的是工業在第一季表現平淡。我認為上個季度下降了 10%。所以看起來它開始趨於平穩，但我只是想檢查這是否是正確的結論。我認為汽車在第四季度的中期上漲，而且我說過 - 而且我認為你也在第一季說過同樣的事情。所以這似乎也是正確的方向。

So the specific question is, as we look into Q2, how should we think about industrial and auto? Can they say at least kind of flattish? Or do you think that they are also exposed to the macro weakness?

因此，具體問題是，當我們研究第二個問題時，我們應該如何看待工業和汽車？他們能說出至少有點平坦嗎？或者您認為他們也受到了宏觀疲軟的影響？

Yes. So first, confirm that you heard correctly, industrial market was about flat in the first quarter, and automotive was up mid-single digits. And as you know, our practice -- when we think about guidance by end market, we only provide color if there's something that we need to highlight to explain what's going on. You've seen us do that multiple times, whether it's end markets or it's regions or something specific that's going on. So as you said, at the midpoint of our guidance, revenue was flat. And -- so when we look strategically at both of those markets, we're very confident that they will continue to add semiconductor content per unit and be great growers for us. So you have a follow-on to that?

是的。首先，確認你沒有聽錯，第一季工業市場基本上持平，汽車市場成長中個位數。如您所知，我們的做法是——當我們考慮終端市場指導時，我們只會在需要強調某些事情以解釋正在發生的事情時才提供細節。您已經多次看到我們這樣做，無論是終端市場、地區還是正在發生的具體事情。正如您所說，在我們的預期中期，收入持平。因此，當我們從策略角度審視這兩個市場時，我們非常有信心，它們將繼續增加單位半導體含量，並成為我們的巨大成長點。那麼你對此還有後續消息嗎？

Yes, Dave, I actually wanted to stay on the same question because there is a perception that industrial and auto demand is kind of this last shoe to drop in semiconductors. And when I look at what your competitors or -- right, peers are seeing in analog and microcontroller market, they are noticing a level of stability and strength, and that's what I want to confirm with TI. That are you seeing the same thing as you go into Q2? Because, yes, consumer is weak, right, enterprise is weak, that is well known.

是的，戴夫，我實際上想繼續回答同一個問題，因為人們認為工業和汽車需求是半導體領域的最後一隻靴子。當我觀察你們的競爭對手或同業在模擬和微控制器市場的表現時，他們注意到了一定程度的穩定性和實力，這正是我想與 TI 確認的。當您進入 Q2 時，您是否看到了相同的事情？因為，是的，消費者是弱勢的，對吧，企業是弱勢的，這是眾所周知的。

But specifically auto and industrial, do you think they are now trending in the right direction in Q2? Or do you think that you are in front of some weakness and inventory adjustment in those markets also?

但具體到汽車和工業，您認為它們在第二季正朝著正確的方向發展嗎？或者您認為這些市場也面臨一些疲軟和庫存調整？

Yes. And again, we're not trying to provide guidance by specific markets. The overall outlook is roughly flat into second quarter. If we had something specific to call out, we would. And I think our approach to building closer relationships with customers, what we're doing in our channels, our product portfolio continues to strengthen, the capacity that we add, are all things that continue to put us in a great position to service customers and service them well over time. But -- yes, so we're just not going to go into the specifics of each market in the second quarter. So thanks for those questions.

是的。再次強調，我們並不是想透過特定市場來提供指導。第二季的整體前景大致持平。如果我們有特別要指出的事情，我們就會這樣做。我認為，我們與客戶建立更密切關係的方法、我們在通路中所做的工作、我們不斷加強的產品組合、我們增加的產能，所有這些都將使我們繼續處於良好的地位來為客戶服務，並長期為他們提供良好的服務。但是——是的，所以我們不會在第二季深入討論每個市場的具體情況。感謝您提出這些問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的提摩西‧阿庫裡。

Dave, I guess I wanted to ask sort of where you think you are in the cycle. Because you have less disty exposure than many of your peers. So in theory, you should be farther along the inventory correction, and you're more connected in real time to demand. So when you sort of look at your customer inventory levels, where do you think we are? Do you think that we're sort of in the late innings of the correction for you because you are a bit more connected to demand in real time?

戴夫，我想問一下，您認為自己處於週期的哪個階段。因為與許多同齡人相比，您的接觸較少。因此從理論上來說，您應該在庫存調整方面走得更遠，並且能夠更即時地與需求保持聯繫。那麼當您查看客戶庫存水準時，您認為我們處於什麼水準？您是否認為我們正處於調整的後期，因為您與即時需求的連結更為緊密？

Yes. I think, Tim, as you know, this is the first time that our markets -- not only for us, but the industry -- have behaved differently as we've gone into this cycle. So if you look at personal electronics, we began seeing weakness in personal electronics back second quarter a year ago, right? So we're now into our fourth quarter of weaker demand. The other markets, with the exception of automotive, began weakening the quarter before last. So we're a couple of quarters in on that. So -- and of course, automotive has remained strong through last quarter.

是的。提姆，我想，如你所知，這是我們進入這個週期後，我們的市場——不僅對我們，而且對整個產業來說——第一次表現不同。因此，如果你看一下個人電子產品，我們會發現去年第二季個人電子產品表現疲軟，對嗎？因此，我們現在進入了需求較弱的第四季。除汽車市場外，其他市場在上個季度都開始走弱。我們已經關注了幾個季度了。所以 — — 當然，汽車產業在上個季度一直保持強勁。

So you put all that together, I think it depends on which market you're looking at. If you're in PE, you're obviously closer to the bottom than you are to the top. So I think our practice -- we don't try to predict where the bottom or the top is. It really draws -- draw your attention back to slide 13 that we talked about, that longer-term trend is what we're planning on and what we believe we can look at to inform our decisions. Do you have a follow-on?

所以把所有這些放在一起，我認為這取決於你關注哪個市場。如果你在 PE，那麼你距離底層的距離顯然比距離頂層的距離更近。所以我認為我們的做法是——我們不會試圖預測底部或頂部在哪裡。它確實吸引了大家的注意力——讓我們回到我們討論的第 13 張幻燈片上，我們正​​在計劃的長期趨勢以及我們認為可以參考的內容來為我們的決策提供參考。您有後續訊息嗎？

I do, Dave. Yes. So I know the SIA data can be noisy, and you always say to look at things on kind of a TTM basis. And if you sort of roll it back, it looks like your share has gone down in Analog roughly 200 basis points versus where it peaked in the early part of COVID.

我同意，戴夫。是的。所以我知道 SIA 數據可能會有噪音，而且你總是說要從 TTM 的角度來看待事物。如果你把它回滾一下，你會發現你在 Analog 中的份額與 COVID 初期的峰值相比下降了約 200 個基點。

So as you sort of forensically go back and try to figure out what's happened, do you think that's entirely based on supply? So in other words, if you didn't have the shortages that you did, do you think that you wouldn't have lost that share? I'm just kind of wondering, as you look back at the numbers, how you forensically try to explain that share loss relative to the industry data?

因此，當您以法醫方式回過頭來試圖弄清楚發生了什麼時，您是否認為這完全基於供應？換句話說，如果您沒有遇到那樣的短缺，您認為您不會失去那部分份額嗎？我只是有點好奇，當您回顧這些數字時，您如何從法醫角度解釋相對於行業數據的份額損失？

Yes. As we talked about, that's something we think you have to look at over time. If you go back to the prior year, is when the pandemic started, you remember we made some decisions to continue to run our factories and build long-lived inventory, and those decisions served us very well. So as we went through each quarter as customers really expedited across the board, we could respond to that and ship them product. And in the short term, that probably helped us with the numbers when you compare it against what the industry was doing.

是的。正如我們所討論的，我們認為這是您必須長期考慮的事情。如果回顧去年，也就是疫情爆發的時候，你會記得我們做了一些決定，繼續經營工廠並建立長期庫存，這些決定對我們非常有幫助。因此，隨著每個季度客戶真正全面加快速度，我們能夠對此做出反應並向他們發送產品。從短期來看，與行業表現相比，這可能有助於我們獲得更好的數據。

So as we go into the following year, of course, those are tougher compares. But we have a lot of practices that I think are different than many of our peers. As an example, through that period, we've moved to more closer direct relationships with customers. We believe that, that's giving us much better insight. We can see their demand more clearly. We can see what they need, both short term and long term, much better.

因此，當我們進入新的一年時，這些當然會變得更加困難。但我認為我們有很多做法與許多同行不同。舉例來說，在那段時期裡，我們與客戶建立了更密切的直接關係。我們相信，這將為我們帶來更好的洞察力。我們可以更清楚地看到他們的訴求。我們可以更好地了解他們的短期和長期需要什麼。

Also I'd say that as we were moving through a period where most of our customers were reducing their inventory to align with their needs, we haven't employed things like long-term sales agreements or non-cancelable, non-reschedulable contracts so customers aren't taking product that they don't need. So that isn't share gains, it's just -- I think for us, we want to be as easy to do business with as we can. And those -- I think all those practices are setting us up well to continue to gain share. So thank you, Tim.

另外我想說的是，在我們處於大多數客戶減少庫存以滿足其需求的時期，我們沒有採用長期銷售協議或不可取消、不可重新安排的合約等，因此客戶不會購買他們不需要的產品。所以這並不是份額增長，而只是——我認為對我們來說，我們希望盡可能輕鬆地與我們做生意。我認為所有這些做法都為我們繼續獲得市場份額奠定了良好的基礎。所以謝謝你，提姆。

Our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Rafael, I just want to make sure I got the depreciation answer right. Obviously, it has implications for gross margin. And the run rate -- should we assume the first quarter run rate because that is a very positive implication. And you said it would be lower than the linear, but how much lower, I think we were all modeling $1.5 billion is kind of the number that we had. What's the right way to think about that, please?

拉斐爾，我只是想確保我得到的關於折舊的答案正確。顯然，這對毛利率有影響。並且運行率——我們是否應該假設第一季的運行率，因為這是一個非常積極的含義。您說它會低於線性，但低多少呢，我認為我們都模擬了 15 億美元是我們擁有的數字。請問，正確的思考方式是什麼？

We're not breaking down specifics on that. But if you were going to do it linearly, you would get to the $1.4 billion unchanged and then $500 million plus on top of that every year until you get to about $2.5 billion in 2025. So it's going to run lower than that, yes, this year, and we'll give you an update the next capital management on subsequent years.

我們不會詳細談論這一點。但如果你要線性地進行，那麼你將獲得 14 億美元不變，然後每年在此基礎上增加 5 億美元以上，直到 2025 年達到約 25 億美元。 所以今年的金額會低於這個數字，是的，我們會在隨後的幾年裡為你提供下一次資本管理的最新情況。

Got it. Got it. Just a clarification and not a follow-up. So if you look at gross margin last year versus this year, the three factors at least -- I just want to make sure I'm doing it right -- is the flow-through and the fall-through that you talk about. And then the offsets would be LFAB is now going from restructuring into COGS and then apples-to-apples, I add a higher depreciation. Is that the right way? Am I thinking about the right three parts?

知道了。知道了。僅供澄清，不作後續跟進。因此，如果你比較去年和今年的毛利率，至少有三個因素——我只是想確保我做得對——就是你提到的流通量和虧損量。然後抵消將是 LFAB 現在從重組為 COGS，然後進行蘋果對蘋果的比較，我添加了更高的折舊。這是正確的方法嗎？我所思考的這三個部分正確嗎？

Yes. Those are the right three parts. And of course, this is over the long term. Any one quarter, things -- there are many moving pieces, for example, mix always plays a factor, if you have more auto and industrial, that's different than personal electronics, right? But at a high level, over a long enough period, yes, those are the trends that -- the factors you should take into account when modeling this.

是的。這些是正確的三個部分。當然，這是長期的。任何一個季度，都有許多變動的因素，例如，組合總是起著一個作用，如果你有更多的汽車和工業，這與個人電子產品不同，對嗎？但在較高層次上，在足夠長的一段時間內，是的，這些是趨勢——在建模時應該考慮的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

I want to follow up Ambrish's and talk about gross margin, but on a sequential basis, the gross margin held in better than I expected. It did go down sequentially, but not even as much as it would have if you just took the LFAB expense out of OpEx and put it into COGS. So were there any unique offsets to that? And probably more importantly, any unique offsets we need to consider as we think going forward? And I know, Rafael, you don't guide to gross margin specifically.

我想跟進 Ambrish 並討論毛利率，但從連續的基礎上看，毛利率比我預期的要好。它確實是連續下降的，但是下降幅度甚至沒有將 LFAB 費用從 OpEx 中剔除並放入 COGS 中時下降的那麼多。那麼，是否存在什麼獨特的抵銷措施呢？也許更重要的是，我們在思考未來時需要考慮任何獨特的抵消因素？我知道，拉斐爾，你沒有具體指導毛利率。

Yes. No. I would tell you, it was similar to Ambrish's question, high level, think of the model we've given you is 70% to 75% fall-through. But that in any one quarter, even if it's on a year-on-year basis, but especially sequentially on relatively small changes in revenue, that's not going to work very precisely, right? So -- but over a long enough time, that works well. As we just talked about, you add the depreciation. And then in this particular quarter, you have to adjust for the costs that were in restructuring that were for Lehi that now go to -- primarily to cost of revenue.

是的。不。但在任何一個季度，即使是按年計算，尤其是按季度計算，收入的變化相對較小，這樣的計算方式都不會很精確，對嗎？所以 — — 但經過足夠長的時間，效果很好。正如我們剛才談到的，你添加了折舊。然後在這個特定季度，你必須調整重組中針對 Lehi 的成本，這些成本現在主要轉為收入成本。

Now there are other factors that go into play, for example, and I mentioned it to Ambrish a second ago, but mix is a factor. So you get a quarter with a lot more industrial, automotive and less personal electronics, that plays into it. And the final one, depreciation doesn't necessarily immediately flow through the P&L because it needs to be matched to inventory. So that generally flows through inventory first and then -- so that sometimes delays the impact of -- the true impact of depreciation to the gross margin. But clearly, depreciation, as I mentioned earlier, is increasing, so it's coming. So over a long enough time, multiple quarters, certainly years, you need to factor it as we have talked about, right, the fall-through and the increase in depreciation.

現在還有其他因素在發揮作用，例如，我剛剛向 Ambrish 提到過，但混合是一個因素。因此，本季的工業和汽車電子產品增多，個人電子產品減少，這就是原因之一。最後一點，折舊不一定會立即流入損益表，因為它需要與庫存相符。因此，這通常首先流經庫存，然後 - 因此有時會延遲折舊對毛利率的真正影響。但顯然，正如我之前提到的，折舊正在增加，所以它即將到來。因此，在足夠長的時間內，多個季度，當然還有幾年的時間，你需要考慮到我們已經討論過的下跌和折舊的增加。

Do you have a follow-up, Ross?

你還有其他後續問題嗎，羅斯？

Yes, I do. I'll just pivot to round up that CHIPS Act question from earlier. Rafael, could you give us an update on what the cumulative accruals are for that? And probably equally importantly, when does that likely flow through the income statement?

是的，我願意。我將轉而總結一下先前的「CHIPS 法案」問題。拉斐爾，您能否向我們介紹一下該項累積的具體情況？或許同樣重要的是，這可能何時流入損益表？

Yes. So stepping back, CHIPS Act has an investment tax credit -- ITC -- and a grant. There's two components that have the potential to benefit us. If you go to our capital management document, we talked about those, and we said we are planning on the benefits from the ITC, and we're accruing those benefits. On the grant, we're not, because the grants are highly discretionary. It's up to the Department of Commerce. So on those -- we're not counting on those, but we're applying to those grants, and we're in the process of submitting those applications, and we're asking for everything we can get there. But right now counting on nothing.

是的。退一步來說，CHIPS 法案有一項投資稅收抵免——ITC——和一項補助。有兩個組成部分有可能為我們帶來好處。如果你看一下我們的資本管理文件，你會發現我們談到了這些，並且我們表示我們正在計劃從 ITC 中獲取利益，而且我們正在累積這些利益。就補助金而言，我們不會這樣做，因為補助金具有很大的自由裁量權。這取決於商務部。因此，對於這些——我們並不指望這些，但我們正在申請這些補助金，我們正在提交這些申請的過程中，我們正在請求一切我們可以得到的幫助。但目前什麼也不指望。

Now let me just focus on the ITC, which is the one that we are booking on the balance sheet. This last quarter, we accrued another $200 million benefit. So that's on top of the roughly $400 million last year. So now we have a total benefit that we have accrued of $600 million. That number will continue increasing for the rest of the year, and that's 25% of qualifying assets in the United States. So we'll continue to increase that number over the year.

現在讓我只專注於 ITC，這是我們在資產負債表上記錄的部分。上個季度，我們又獲得了 2 億美元的收益。這是在去年約 4 億美元的基礎上增加的。所以現在我們累積的總收益是 6 億美元。這一數字在今年剩餘時間內也將持續增加，占美國合格資產的 25%。因此，我們今年將繼續增加這一數字。

And then what happens is we benefit in a couple of ways. One, the P&L, that accrual comes out of the PP&E, property, plant and equipment basis. So now you have a lower basis to depreciate. So there, depreciation is going to be lower going forward. We're already getting a small benefit of that this year, but it's in a couple of million dollars, but that will grow over time as those -- that equipment goes into -- is placed in service and now depreciates at a lower rate.

這樣一來，我們就會在幾個方面受益。一是損益表，應計項目來自 PP&E（財產、廠房和設備）基礎。因此現在您有更低的折舊基礎。因此，未來折舊率將會降低。我們今年已經獲得了少量收益，但只有幾百萬美元，但隨著這些設備投入使用並且折舊率降低，收益將隨著時間的推移而增長。

More importantly, the cash benefit associated with that, we get the following year. So anything that we accrue this year and in '22 and is placed in service in 2023, we will get that cash at the end of 2024, okay? And we're -- that's what we're planning on. I think that answers your question fairly well.

更重要的是，與此相關的現金收益我們將在第二年獲得。因此，我們今年和22年累積的任何內容，以及在2023年投入使用的內容，我們都將在2024年底獲得這筆現金，好嗎？而且我們——這就是我們的計劃。我認為這很好地回答了你的問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Chris Danely。

Just some color on the inventory correction you're seeing out there. So do you think that we're through the worst of it? Maybe talk about where it's, I guess, lower or where it's higher? Do you think that it's getting better at this point or getting worse? Or can we not tell?

這只是您所看到的庫存修正的一些情況。那麼，您認為我們最糟糕的時期已經過去了嗎？也許可以討論一下哪裡比較低或哪裡比較高？您認為目前情況是變好了還是變糟了？或者說我們不能說？

Yes. I think, Chris, this is one of the previous questions, somewhat similar, right? I think you have to look at it by market. Certainly, in personal electronics, being in the fourth quarter of the weakness would indicate you're probably closer to the bottom. There's no guarantee of that, but you're probably closer than in other markets, right? So that just isn't something that we try to predict.

是的。我認為，克里斯，這是之前的問題之一，有點類似，對嗎？我認為你必須從市場角度來看這個問題。當然，在個人電子產品領域，第四季的疲軟表明可能已經接近底部。雖然沒有保證，但你可能比其他市場更接近，對嗎？所以這並不是我們試圖預測的事情。

And what we do use to kind of guide how we think about things and where we make investments is that gray line on the chart that we've talked about. That's really what's important is being ready for the longer-term growth. And that's where our focus is. Do you have a follow-on?

我們用來指導我們如何思考事物以及在何處進行投資的是我們討論過的圖表上的灰線。為長期成長做好準備才是真正重要的。這正是我們的重點。您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes. Can you just talk about the linearity of bookings during the quarter and how your backlog looks now versus, I guess, three months ago? And what does that imply for the second half of the year? .

是的。您能否談談本季的預訂情況以及現在與三個月前相比的積壓訂單情況如何？這對今年下半年意味著什麼？ 。

Yes. So our linearity was stronger in the last month of the quarter. And in backlog, I would say, as you know, we've got sales flowing through TI.com. We've got sales that are on consignment where we get direct feeds and we don't actually carry a backlog. So we just don't put a lot of emphasis on the backlog, overall, I think compared to many of our peers. But we've got really good visibility because of our close relationships with customers. The fact that we're carrying, we're owning and controlling that inventory more directly and so actually, we've got -- we believe that gives us really great visibility on demand.

是的。因此，我們在本季度的最後一個月的線性更強。至於積壓訂單，我想說，如你所知，我們的銷售是透過 TI.com 進行的。我們有代銷產品，我們可以直接獲得供貨，而且實際上沒有積壓訂單。因此，我認為，總體而言，與我們的許多同行相比，我們並不太重視積壓工作。但由於我們與客戶的密切關係，我們獲得了非常好的知名度。事實上，我們擁有、擁有並更直接地控制這些庫存，因此實際上，我們相信這讓我們對需求有了非常好的了解。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

Great. I know you were pretty early to signal some of the headwinds that came in China from the COVID lockdowns. What are you seeing now as the economies reemerge? Are you starting to see that as potential strength going into the rest of the year?

偉大的。我知道您很早就指出了中國因新冠疫情封鎖而面臨的一些不利因素。隨著經濟復甦，您現在看到了什麼？您是否開始將其視為今年剩餘時間內的潛在優勢？

Yes, Joe, I would say that we continue to believe the best way to look at our revenue and the changes in revenue is more easily understood by looking at end markets, but there wasn't any significant change that we saw inside of China this last quarter. Do you have a follow-on?

是的，喬，我想說，我們仍然相信看待收入的最佳方式，透過觀察終端市場更容易理解收入的變化，但上個季度我們在中國內部沒有看到任何重大變化。您有後續訊息嗎？

Sure. And then the down 30% in personal electronics and in enterprise both. Does that reflect any kind of share shift as -- I know that you do have people multisourcing more in areas like that in phones and PCs and servers and whatnot. Are you seeing that as any kind of a headwind? Or do you think that's just what the market was down in the first quarter? .

當然。個人電子產品和企業電子產品均下降了 30%。這是否反映了某種份額的轉變？您是否視此為一種阻力？或者您認為這只是第一季的市場低迷？ 。

Yes. I think that as we've talked about before, share doesn't move quickly. We're in a position as we're building inventory to support higher demand if it was to materialize. So again, we think that's mostly reflective of what's going on in the market. I think that's consistent with what you see from customers and other data that you can see that's out there. And I believe we've got time for one more caller, please.

是的。我認為正如我們之前談到的，份額變化並不快。我們正在建立庫存，以滿足可能出現的更高需求。因此，我們再次認為，這主要反映了市場正在發生的事情。我認為這與您從客戶那裡看到的情況以及其他數據一致。我想我們還有時間再接聽一位來電。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I just wanted to clarify and confirm some of the statements from earlier. So your gross margins came a little better than what we thought for March. And so just curious, are you still on track for that $1.5 billion depreciation for the year? And were there any changes in kind of the timing of the installation of equipment? Are you still seeing kind of a tight supply there?

我只是想澄清並確認之前的一些陳述。因此，您的三月毛利率比我們預期的要好一些。我很好奇，您今年的折舊金額還能達到 15 億美元嗎？設備安裝時間有變化嗎？您是否仍發現那裡的供應有些緊張？

Yes. So let me address that. First, CapEx. We're very pleased with how CapEx has come in. We did about $1 billion in the quarter. We talked a couple of months ago that we expect about $5 billion per year for the next four years. That's an average. So some years will be less, some years will be more. So $1 billion per quarter. That's obviously a $4 billion run rate for the year. So somewhere between $4 billion and $5 billion for this year would be about right on the CapEx. And that's coming in just as expected.

是的。讓我來解決這個問題。首先，資本支出。我們對資本支出的情況非常滿意。我們幾個月前說過，預計未來四年每年的銷售額約為 50 億美元。這是平均值。因此，有些年份會少一些，有些年份會多一些。所以每季10億美元。這顯然意味著今年的營運金額將達到 40 億美元。因此，今年的資本支出大約在 40 億至 50 億美元之間。這一切都正如預期的那樣。

Depreciation, we -- what we talked about a couple of months ago at the call was we expect it to increase to $2.5 billion at some point in the future in 2025 -- on or about 2025. We -- but this year, we expect that trend to be below linear. So instead of $500 million increase per year from the starting point of '22, it will be less than that in 2023. I think Ambrish had the specific number on that. We're not disclosing that at this point, but I would just tell you look at -- we just did $265 million for the quarter. So you can do your own math of -- that was $249 million in the previous quarter. So you can think of that and come up with a decent approximation of where that may end up, and we'll give you more details, obviously, in subsequent quarters. Do you have a follow-up?

折舊，我們 — — 幾個月前的電話會議上我們談到，我們預計它將在 2025 年左右的某個時候增加到 25 億美元。因此，從 2022 年起點開始，每年的增加額將不是 5 億美元，而是 2023 年的增加額會低於這個數字。我們目前還不透露這個數字，但我只想告訴你——我們本季的營收為 2.65 億美元。因此，你可以自己算一下——上一季的數字是 2.49 億美元。因此，您可以考慮這一點，並對最終結果做出合理的估計，我們顯然會在接下來的幾個季度為您提供更多詳細資訊。你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, please, a longer-term question. One of the overriding themes for the last couple of quarters on the semi equipment side is the vast spending by lagging edge domestic China with an obvious focus kind of on the 90-nm plus. But actually, I shouldn't discount the 28-nm plus part of the world. So as you think about regionalization and as you think about perhaps a rising kind of competitor in the China landscape looking out over the next five plus years, how are you thinking about the pros and cons and how you'll compete kind of in that environment?

是的，請問一個長期問題。過去幾個季度，半導體設備方面最重要的主題之一是中國國內落後企業投入巨額資金，明顯專注於 90 奈米以上技術。但實際上，我不應該忽視 28 奈米以上的領域。那麼，當您考慮區域化，並考慮未來五年內中國市場上可能出現的競爭對手時，您如何看待其中的利弊，以及您將如何在這樣的環境下競爭？

Yes, C.J., thanks for that question. I'd say that when you look at our products and markets, we've got four competitive advantages that we continue to invest in, I think that make us stronger and different than our competitors. And we've talked about them before, right? The first is the manufacturing and technology. Owning and controlling those assets we think will be of growing importance and where they are in the world, also, we believe, will be a benefit to us as well.

是的，C.J.，謝謝你提問。我想說，當你看看我們的產品和市場時，我們有四個競爭優勢，我們會繼續投資，我認為這讓我們比競爭對手更強大、更有特色。我們之前討論過它們，對吧？第一是製造和技術。我們認為，擁有和控制這些資產將變得越來越重要，我們相信，它們在世界上的位置也將對我們有益。

Second is the broad -- our broad product portfolio. So competitors that we have around the world, but especially in China, usually only compete with us in a very, very narrow slice of our product portfolio. That said, we've competed with those companies, in some cases, for a couple of decades now. So competition there isn't new. And -- so they're good competitors. We can learn from them. We're not dismissive of them, and we close -- we very closely track and I believe the number somewhere around 75 different competitors around the world that we'll compete with.

第二個是廣泛的－我們廣泛的產品組合。因此，我們在世界各地（尤其是在中國）的競爭對手通常只在我們產品組合中非常狹窄的範圍內與我們競爭。儘管如此，在某些情況下，我們與這些公司已經競爭了幾十年。因此那裡的競爭並不是什麼新鮮事。所以他們是很好的競爭對手。我們可以向他們學習。我們並沒有對他們置之不理，我們密切跟踪他們的動態，我相信，我們在全球範圍內大約有 75 個不同的競爭對手。

The third competitive advantage is the reach of our market channels. And especially when you look at some of the smaller competitors in China, they just don't have the reach. They don't have the breadth of portfolio that attracts customers for engagement, and that just gives us better insight.

第三個競爭優勢是我們的市場通路的覆蓋範圍。尤其是當你看看中國一些規模較小的競爭對手時，你會發現他們的影響力根本不大。他們沒有足夠的產品組合來吸引客戶參與，而這只能讓我們獲得更好的洞察力。

And then the last is diversity and longevity. So there's not one market or technology that we're dependent on to provide market share lift. Now, we'll be dependent on all of them. And sometimes in the short term, that may favor one competitor versus another. But longer term, as we compete broadly in all the markets, we think that, that will translate into long-term and sticky share gains.

最後是多樣性和長壽。因此，我們並不依賴任何一個市場或技術來提升市場佔有率。現在，我們將依賴它們所有人。有時從短期來看，這可能有利於一個競爭對手而不是另一個競爭對手。但從長遠來看，由於我們在所有市場都進行廣泛競爭，我們認為這將轉化為長期且持久的市場份額成長。

So overall, we're pleased and excited about where we are from a position standpoint, whether we're looking at our traditional competitors here in the U.S. or Europe and as well as those in China. So thank you very much. And I'll turn it over to Rafael to wrap this up.

因此，整體而言，我們對自己的地位感到高興和興奮，無論是美國、歐洲或中國的傳統競爭對手。非常感謝。現在我將把這個問題交給拉斐爾來解決。

Yes. Thanks, Dave. Let me wrap up by reiterating what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate long-term value for owners is the growth of free cash flow per share.

是的。謝謝，戴夫。最後，讓我重申一下我們之前說過的內容。從本質上講，我們是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終，我們的目標以及衡量進度和為業主創造長期價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的成長。

While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our three ambitions: We will act like owners who will own the company for decades, we will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing, and we will be a company that we are personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbor. When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you, and have a good evening.

在努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三大抱負：我們將像擁有公司幾十年的主人一樣行事，我們將適應不斷變化的世界並取得成功，我們將成為一家讓我們個人感到自豪並願意成為我們鄰居的公司。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和業主都會受益。謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，各位現在可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。