德州儀器 (TXN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2022 年第四季度收益發布電話會議。我是投資者關係主管 Dave Pahl，我們的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 也加入了我的行列。對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

此電話正在網絡上直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。此外，今天的通話正在錄製中，可以通過我們網站上的重播獲得。此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看有關今天發布的收益發布中包含的前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

First, you likely saw last week, we announced that Haviv Ilan will become President and CEO on April 1, and that Rich Templeton will continue as our Chairman. I'm sure you want to join me in congratulating both of them.

首先，您可能在上週看到，我們宣布 Haviv Ilan 將於 4 月 1 日成為總裁兼首席執行官，而 Rich Templeton 將繼續擔任我們的董事長。我確定你想和我一起祝賀他們兩個。

Secondly, let me provide some information that's important to your calendars. Next week on Thursday, February 2 at 10 a.m. Central Time, we'll have our capital management call. Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will summarize our progress and provide some insights into our business and our approach to capital allocation. This will include an update of our 300-millimeter capacity expansion plant to support the increasing confidence that we have in our long-term growth.

其次，讓我提供一些對您的日曆很重要的信息。下周中部時間 2 月 2 日星期四上午 10 點，我們將召開資本管理電話會議。與我們過去所做的類似，拉斐爾和我將總結我們的進展，並對我們的業務和我們的資本配置方法提供一些見解。這將包括更新我們的 300 毫米產能擴張工廠，以增強我們對長期增長的信心。

Moving on today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into fourth quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our customers and markets. I'll then provide an annual summary of our revenue breakdown by end market. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the first quarter of 2023.

今天繼續，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將從本季度的快速概覽開始。接下來，我將提供對第四季度收入結果的洞察，以及我們在客戶和市場方面看到的一些細節。然後，我將按終端市場提供我們收入細分的年度摘要。最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績和我們對 2023 年第一季度的指導。

Starting with a quick overview. Revenue was $4.7 billion, a decrease of 11% sequentially and 3% from the same quarter a year ago. As expected, our results reflect weaker demand in all end markets with the exception of automotive. A component of the weaker demand was customers working to reduce their inventories. In the first quarter, we expect a weaker than seasonal decline with the exception of automotive as we believe customers will continue to reduce inventory levels.

從快速概覽開始。收入為 47 億美元，環比下降 11%，比去年同期下降 3%。正如預期的那樣，我們的結果反映了除汽車外所有終端市場的需求疲軟。需求疲軟的一個組成部分是客戶努力減少庫存。在第一季度，我們預計除汽車行業外的降幅將弱於季節性，因為我們相信客戶將繼續降低庫存水平。

Turning to our segments. Fourth quarter Analog revenue declined 5% year-over-year and Embedded Processing grew 10%. Our Other segment declined 11% from the year ago quarter.

轉向我們的細分市場。第四季度模擬收入同比下降 5%，嵌入式處理收入增長 10%。我們的其他部門比去年同期下降了 11%。

Now I'll provide some insight into our fourth quarter revenue by end market. I'll focus on sequential performance again this quarter as it's more informative at this time.

現在我將按終端市場提供一些關於我們第四季度收入的見解。本季度我將再次關注連續表現，因為此時它的信息量更大。

First, the industrial market was down about 10%. The automotive market was up mid-single digits with strength in most sectors. Personal electronics was down mid-teens with broad-based weakness. Next, communications equipment was down about 20%. And finally, enterprise systems was also down about 20%. Lastly, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market for 2022. We break our end markets into 6 categories that are grouped by their life cycles and market characteristics.

首先，工業市場下跌了約10%。汽車市場上漲了中等個位數，大多數行業都表現強勁。個人電子產品普遍疲軟，跌至十幾歲中期。接下來，通訊設備下跌了約 20%。最後，企業系統也下降了約 20%。最後，正如我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣，我將按終端市場描述 2022 年的收入。我們將終端市場分為 6 個類別，按其生命週期和市場特徵分組。

The 6 end markets are industrial, automotive, personal electronics, which includes products such as mobile phones, PCs, tablets and TVs; communications equipment; enterprise systems and other, which is primarily calculators. As a percentage of revenue for 2022, industrial was 40%; automotive about 25%; personal electronics, 20%; communications equipment, 7%; enterprise systems, 6%; and other was 2%.

6大終端市場為工業、汽車、個人電子產品，包括手機、PC、平板、電視等產品；通訊設備；企業系統和其他，主要是計算器。 2022 年，工業佔收入的百分比為 40%；汽車約佔 25%；個人電子產品，20%；通訊設備，7%；企業系統，6%；其他為2%。

In 2022, industrial and automotive combined made up 65% of TI's revenue, up about 3 percentage points from 2021 and up from 42% in 2013. We see good opportunities in all of our markets, but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive. Our industrial and automotive customers are increasingly turning to Analog and Embedded technologies to make their end products smarter, safer, more connected and more efficient. These trends have resulted and will continue to result in growing chip content per application which will drive faster growth compared to our other markets.

到 2022 年，工業和汽車合計佔 TI 收入的 65%，比 2021 年和 2013 年的 42% 分別增長約 3 個百分點。我們在所有市場都看到了良好的機會，但我們將額外的戰略重點放在工業和汽車上.我們的工業和汽車客戶越來越多地轉向模擬和嵌入式技術，以使他們的終端產品更智能、更安全、連接性更強和更高效。這些趨勢已經並將繼續導致每個應用程序的芯片含量不斷增加，與我們的其他市場相比，這將推動更快的增長。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. As Dave mentioned, fourth quarter revenue was $4.7 billion. Gross profit in the quarter was $3.1 billion or 66% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue, increased capital expenditures and the transition of LFAB related charges to cost of revenue. Gross profit margin decreased 320 basis points.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。正如戴夫所說，第四季度的收入為 47 億美元。本季度的毛利潤為 31 億美元，佔收入的 66%。與一年前相比，毛利潤下降的主要原因是收入減少、資本支出增加以及 LFAB 相關費用轉為收入成本。毛利率下降320個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $863 million, up 9% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.4 billion or 17% of revenue.

本季度的運營支出為 8.63 億美元，同比增長 9%，與預期基本一致。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用為 34 億美元，佔收入的 17%。

Restructuring charges were $48 million in the fourth quarter and were associated with the LFAB factory preproduction costs. As production started at the beginning of December, this cost then transitioned to cost of revenue, where they will be reflected moving forward. In addition, depreciation has begun on these assets.

第四季度的重組費用為 4800 萬美元，與 LFAB 工廠的預生產成本有關。隨著 12 月初開始生產，此成本隨後轉變為收入成本，它們將在未來反映出來。此外，這些資產已經開始折舊。

Operating profit was $2.2 billion in the quarter or 47% of revenue. Operating profit was down 13% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the fourth quarter was $2 billion or $2.13 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.11 benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

本季度營業利潤為 22 億美元，佔收入的 47%。營業利潤比去年同期下降 13%。第四季度淨收入為 20 億美元或每股 2.13 美元。每股收益包括 0.11 美元的收益，這些收益不在我們最初的指導中。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $2 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $1 billion in the quarter. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $5.9 billion, down 6% from a year ago.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。本季度運營現金流為 20 億美元。本季度的資本支出為 10 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 59 億美元，比一年前下降 6%。

In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends and repurchased $848 million of our stock. In total, we have returned $7.9 billion in the past 12 months to owners. We also increased our dividend per share by 8% in the fourth quarter, marking our 19th year of dividend increases.

本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息並回購了 8.48 億美元的股票。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們總共向業主返還了 79 億美元。我們還在第四季度將每股股息提高了 8%，標誌著我們連續第 19 年增加股息。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.1 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter. In the quarter, we issued $800 million in debt. Total debt outstanding was $8.8 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.93%. Inventory was up $353 million from the prior quarter to $2.8 billion, and days were 157, up 24 days sequentially.

截至第四季度末，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，現金和短期投資達 91 億美元。本季度，我們發行了 8 億美元的債務。未償還債務總額為 88 億美元，加權平均息票率為 2.93%。庫存比上一季度增加 3.53 億美元，達到 28 億美元，天數為 157 天，比上一季度增加 24 天。

Next to summarize the benefits of the CHIPS Act, we accrued about $350 million on our balance sheet under long-term assets in fourth quarter, in addition to the $50 million accrued in the third quarter. These accruals are due to 25% investment tax credit for investments in our U.S. factories. This will eventually flow through our income statement as lower depreciation, and we will receive the associated cash benefit in the future.

接下來總結 CHIPS 法案的好處，除第三季度的 5000 萬美元外，我們在第四季度的資產負債表上的長期資產項下累計了約 3.5 億美元。這些應計費用歸因於對我們美國工廠投資的 25% 投資稅收抵免。這最終將以較低的折舊形式流入我們的損益表，我們將在未來獲得相關的現金收益。

Now let's look at some of these results for the year. In 2022, cash flow from operations was $8.7 billion. Capital expenditures were $2.8 billion or 14% of revenue. Free cash flow for 2022 was $5.9 billion or 30% of revenue. Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model. As we have said, we believe that growth of free cash flow per share is the primary driver of long-term value.

現在讓我們看看今年的一些結果。 2022 年，運營現金流為 87 億美元。資本支出為 28 億美元，佔收入的 14%。 2022 年的自由現金流為 59 億美元，佔收入的 30%。我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力。正如我們所說，我們認為每股自由現金流的增長是長期價值的主要驅動力。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter. We expect TI revenue in the range of $4.17 billion to $4.53 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.64 to $1.90. We now expect our 2023 annual effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%.

談談我們對第一季度的展望。我們預計 TI 收入在 41.7 億美元至 45.3 億美元之間，每股收益在 1.64 美元至 1.90 美元之間。我們現在預計 2023 年的年度有效稅率約為 13% 至 14%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的渠道覆蓋面以及多樣化和長期的地位。我們將通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最佳機會來繼續加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續實現每股自由現金流的增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開問題線路。 （操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We'll first hear from Chris Caso of Credit Suisse.

我們將首先聽取瑞士信貸的克里斯·卡索 (Chris Caso) 的意見。

I guess the first question is, if you could just maybe characterize what you're seeing going to Q1, you're talking about that being worse than seasonal.

我想第一個問題是，如果你能描述一下你在第一季度看到的情況，你說的是比季節性更糟。

Is that also broadly based in terms of the decline as you've seen in Q4? And I know you don't guide by segment, but any kind of color you could provide by segment as to what you're seeing and the extent to which customers are burning inventory as you know into the first quarter?

正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，這是否也廣泛地基於下降？而且我知道你沒有按細分市場進行指導，但是你可以按細分市場提供任何顏色，比如你所看到的以及你知道第一季度客戶燃燒庫存的程度？

Yes, Chris, thanks for that question. I'd say that the trends that we saw in the fourth quarter will continue in the first, meaning that we expect our end markets to decline with the exception of automotive. So automotive is continuing to be resilient. And we do believe, as you just said, that the customers are continuing to work to get their inventories lower. So you have a follow-on?

是的，克里斯，謝謝你提出這個問題。我想說我們在第四季度看到的趨勢將在第一季度繼續，這意味著我們預計我們的終端市場將下降，但汽車除外。因此，汽車行業將繼續保持彈性。正如您剛才所說，我們確實相信，客戶正在繼續努力降低庫存。所以你有後續嗎？

I do. I wonder if you could speak about the pace of depreciation expenses as you go through next year. You spoke about RFAB and I know it started production and it's hitting depreciation now. Is there additional incremental depreciation coming from RFAB as go through the year? What happens to LFAB as you, I guess, maybe the timing of when that starts production and start hitting depreciation?

我願意。我想知道你是否可以談談明年你經歷的折舊費用的速度。你談到了 RFAB，我知道它已經開始生產並且現在正在貶值。 RFAB 在這一年中是否有額外的增量折舊？ LFAB 會發生什麼變化，我猜，也許是什麼時候開始生產並開始貶值？

And then how should we think about some of the benefits that come from CHIPS Act that tend to decrease depreciation over time. I'm sure you're going to speak about that on the capital day coming up as well.

然後我們應該如何考慮 CHIPS 法案帶來的一些好處，這些好處往往會隨著時間的推移減少折舊。我相信你也會在即將到來的資本日談論這個。

Yes. Let me take that, and we're going to go through all of that, both the CapEx, depreciation and ITC and the CHIPS Act in great detail next week. For now, what I would tell you is, as you said, RFAB2 is in production, Lehi is in production. So both of those are running. That cost now is in cost of revenue and they're both depreciated -- they're both depreciating and that is a function of the -- when the equipment is placed in service it starts appreciating, right? So as both of those ramps, the quilting service starts appreciating.

是的。讓我接受這一點，我們將在下周詳細討論所有這些，包括資本支出、折舊和 ITC 以及 CHIPS 法案。現在，我要告訴你的是，正如你所說，RFAB2 正在製作中，Lehi 正在製作中。所以這兩個都在運行。現在的成本是收入成本，它們都在折舊——它們都在折舊，這是一個函數——當設備投入使用時，它開始升值，對吧？因此，隨著這兩個坡道的發展，絎縫服務開始升值。

But big picture, what we told you last year, on depreciation was that it would ramp roughly linearly to about $2.5 billion in 2025. And again, we'll give you an update on that next week. But I do want to say, just as I said 90 days ago, that since we talked about this last year, our confidence surrounding our long-term growth prospects have only grown. And as you alluded to, we've had the CHIPS Act also since last year, that legislation passed in August, so we'll -- next week, we'll give you all the puts and takes between those trends and we'll paint a clear picture at that point.

但總體而言，我們去年告訴過你的是，到 2025 年，折舊率將大致呈線性上升至約 25 億美元。我們將在下週再次為你提供最新情況。但我確實想說，正如我在 90 天前所說的那樣，自從我們去年討論這個問題以來，我們對長期增長前景的信心有增無減。正如你提到的，自去年以來我們也有 CHIPS 法案，該立法於 8 月通過，所以我們將 - 下週，我們將為您提供這些趨勢之間的所有看跌期權，我們將在那一點上畫一幅清晰的圖畫。

Yes. And maybe just to add a small piece. That linear ramp will go from about $1 billion of depreciation that we had this year at about $0.5 billion a year until we get to $2.5 billion. So just kind of doing the math for you. So thanks, Chris. Now we will go to the next caller, please.

是的。也許只是添加一小部分。這個線性斜坡將從我們今年的約 10 億美元折舊開始，每年約 5 億美元，直到我們達到 25 億美元。所以只是為你做數學。所以謝謝，克里斯。現在我們將轉到下一位來電者。

Next, we'll hear from Chris Danely of Citi.

接下來，我們將聽取花旗銀行的 Chris Danely 的意見。

It's the Chris Brothers. So Dave, I believe you said that your confidence in the long-term growth rate has only increased. Maybe just share with us what you've seen in the last 3 to 6 months that's giving you that confidence? Do you expect the, I guess, non-auto markets to bounce back this year? And conversely, would you expect auto to cool offer to remain strong all year?

是克里斯兄弟。所以戴夫，我相信你說過你對長期增長率的信心只會增加。也許只是與我們分享您在過去 3 到 6 個月中看到的讓您充滿信心的事情？我猜，您預計今年非汽車市場會反彈嗎？相反，您是否期望汽車降溫報價全年保持強勁？

Yes. And again, that's -- thanks for the question, Chris. The longer-term growth rates are really -- we're speaking to how things are going to grow over the next 3 and 5 and 10 years. And that higher confidence comes from the higher semiconductor content growth that we're seeing, particularly in industrial and automotive.

是的。再一次，克里斯，謝謝你提出這個問題。長期增長率確實——我們正在談論未來 3 年、5 年和 10 年的增長情況。這種更高的信心來自於我們看到的更高的半導體含量增長，尤其是在工業和汽車領域。

And the fact that those 2 markets now make up 2/3 of our revenue. So just as that structurally grows faster than the rest of the market, we're convinced more than ever that, that will continue to drive our top line and also the products that we have inside of those markets. And I'd say also the strong customer response we're getting to our geopolitically dependable capacity. So since we've shared publicly our plans last February in capital management call, I'd just say that the response has been very, very strong. So those are really the 3 things that are adding to our confidence. Do you have a follow-up?

事實上，這兩個市場現在占我們收入的 2/3。因此，正如它在結構上比其他市場增長更快一樣，我們比以往任何時候都更加相信，這將繼續推動我們的收入以及我們在這些市場中擁有的產品。我還要說的是，我們對地緣政治可靠能力的強烈客戶反應。因此，自從我們去年 2 月在資本管理電話會議上公開分享我們的計劃以來，我只想說反響非常非常強烈。所以這些確實是增加我們信心的三件事。你有跟進嗎？

Yes. One on inventory. So it's bouncing up towards your long-term target. Can you talk about when you would start to ease back utilization rates to maintain that inventory? And then maybe spend a little bit of time on the mix. I know there's still shortages out there. How do you think -- how long do you think it will take to, I guess, balance out your inventory this year to achieve some sort of ideal mix?

是的。一個關於庫存。所以它正在朝著你的長期目標反彈。你能談談什麼時候開始降低利用率以維持庫存嗎？然後可能會花一點時間在混音上。我知道那裡仍然存在短缺。您如何看待 - 我猜您認為今年需要多長時間才能平衡您的庫存以實現某種理想的組合？

Yes. So let me take that. And first, big picture, let me point you to our scorecard. The one that we use for capital management, we talked about the objectives in -- when it comes to inventory is to maintain high levels of customer service, keeping stable lead times while minimizing inventory obsolescence. You know our strategy and our portfolio is such that it's long lived. We have very diverse customer base. So the risk of obsolescence is very low. So that's part of the equation.

是的。所以讓我接受吧。首先，大局，讓我向您指出我們的記分卡。我們用於資本管理的那個，我們談到了目標——當涉及到庫存時，就是保持高水平的客戶服務，保持穩定的交貨時間，同時最大限度地減少庫存過時。你知道我們的戰略和我們的投資組合是長期存在的。我們擁有非常多樣化的客戶群。因此，過時的風險非常低。所以這是等式的一部分。

And the other part is the upside that we get by having that inventory, both short term and long term to support customers. So that's why we're comfortable holding higher levels of inventory. I've been talking about from current levels, we could add $1 billion to $2 billion of additional inventory. And the timing -- that all depends on revenue trends.

另一部分是我們通過短期和長期支持客戶的庫存獲得的好處。這就是為什麼我們願意持有更高水平的庫存。我一直在談論從目前的水平來看，我們可以增加 10 億至 20 億美元的額外庫存。而時機——這一切都取決於收入趨勢。

So if they are higher, then it will take longer. If the service trends are a little weaker, it will be a little faster to get there. On the mix, there's a number of angles on that. Chip stock versus finished goods, we have a mix of both of those. And in some cases, it makes sense to have more of one than the other, but they're both very low risk. So that's how we think about it.

因此，如果它們更高，則需要更長的時間。如果服務趨勢弱一點，到那裡會快一點。在混音上，有很多角度。芯片庫存與成品，我們兩者兼而有之。在某些情況下，一個比另一個多是有道理的，但它們的風險都很低。這就是我們的想法。

We'll go to the next caller, please.

請接聽下一位來電者。

Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Dave, hoping you guys could talk a little bit about trends in China, what you saw in Q4, if there was any choppiness toward the end of the quarter? And more importantly, how you're thinking about Q1 and beyond? I guess there's hope out there that China as an economy bounces back in '23, are you guys seeing any early signs of a recovery in terms of end consumption of your products?

戴夫，希望你們能談談中國的趨勢，你在第四季度看到了什麼，在本季度末是否有任何動盪？更重要的是，您如何看待第一季度及以後？我想中國經濟在 23 年有望反彈，你們是否看到了產品終端消費復甦的任何早期跡象？

Yes. I'd say some of the disruptions that we saw earlier in the year, we didn't see any of that here in the fourth quarter. And so nothing exceptional to report with China as a region versus the other regions. And we long held the practice that we call it out if there's something going on. So really, nothing exceptional. And certainly, as that economy comes back and consumption increases in China, obviously, helping the world GDP, but that would obviously help us as well. It is what we would expect. So -- do you have a follow-on?

是的。我想說我們在今年早些時候看到的一些中斷，我們在第四季度沒有看到任何中斷。因此，與其他地區相比，中國作為一個地區的報告沒有什麼特別之處。我們長期以來的做法是，如果有什麼事情發生，我們就會大聲疾呼。所以真的，沒有什麼特別的。當然，隨著經濟復甦和中國消費的增加，這顯然有助於世界 GDP，但這顯然也會幫助我們。這是我們所期望的。那麼 - 你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, I do. Your Analog business in the quarter was down 5% year-to-year and obviously, you guys are the first to report, so it's hard for us to compare and contrast how you guys did relative to your competition or your peer group. But it feels like you may have underperformed in the quarter, and I realize it's only 1 quarter. What's the competitive landscape like today? What kind of pricing trends are you seeing as demand patterns start to soften?

是的，我願意。你們本季度的模擬業務同比下降了 5%，顯然，你們是第一個報告的，所以我們很難比較和對比你們相對於競爭對手或同行的表現。但是感覺你這個季度可能表現不佳，我意識到只有1個季度。今天的競爭格局如何？隨著需求模式開始減弱，您看到什麼樣的定價趨勢？

Yes. Yes. I'll take that question, and Rafael, if you like to add. But I think certainly looking at any particular quarter, as we've talked about before, that our performance is just best measured over time. And I think that, that's the way the markets behave. And even looking at 1 year or even longer, you've got to look at 3 and 5 and 10 years of performance, especially when you go through choppy times like we've been through in the last 18 months or so.

是的。是的。我會回答這個問題，拉斐爾，如果你想補充的話。但我認為，正如我們之前談到的那樣，從任何一個特定的季度來看，我們的表現最好是隨著時間的推移來衡量的。我認為，這就是市場的行為方式。即使看 1 年甚至更長的時間，你也必須看 3 年、5 年和 10 年的表現，尤其是當你經歷了過去 18 個月左右的動盪時期時。

And so pricing, just to comment on that. I'd say that there's nothing unusual going on with pricing -- as you know, pricing doesn't move quickly in our markets, our practices in pricing, though I know that they've changed with many of our peers, our practices have not changed. We just continue to price aggressively in the marketplace, but that pricing isn't the reason why customers choose our products. That's usually not the top few reasons why they choose our products. So really no changes on that front. So thank you for those questions.

所以定價，只是對此發表評論。我想說定價沒有什麼不尋常的——如你所知，定價在我們的市場、我們的定價實踐中並沒有快速變化，儘管我知道他們已經與我們的許多同行發生了變化，我們的實踐已經沒有改變。我們只是繼續在市場上積極定價，但定價並不是客戶選擇我們產品的原因。這通常不是他們選擇我們產品的前幾個原因。所以在這方面真的沒有變化。謝謝你提出這些問題。

And we'll go to the next caller.

我們將轉到下一個來電者。

Harlan Sur of JP Morgan.

摩根大通的哈蘭蘇爾。

Last earnings call, the team talked about seeing increasing cancellations. Did cancellations continue to increase through Q4? Did they level off? And then for your consignment-based business, what are the aggregate trends that you're seeing within your customers 6- to 9-month sort of rolling forecast.

在上一次財報電話會議上，該團隊談到取消訂單的情況越來越多。到第 4 季度，取消訂單是否繼續增加？他們平穩了嗎？然後對於您的寄售業務，您在客戶 6 到 9 個月的滾動預測中看到的總體趨勢是什麼。

Yes. Harlan, so the first question is, in a weakening environment, not too surprising. The cancellations were up in the quarter. So we did see an increase there. And not -- and from a consignment versus classic backlog customers, really not much difference there. Their visibility, even though we'll get visibility out 6 months, their visibility to their demand can change as we know, very rapidly within the 90 days or certainly even within 30 days as that -- those windows move a long time.

是的。哈倫，所以第一個問題是，在一個疲軟的環境中，這並不奇怪。本季度的取消數量有所增加。所以我們確實看到了增長。而不是 - 從寄售客戶與經典積壓客戶來看，確實沒有太大區別。他們的能見度，即使我們會在 6 個月後看到，他們對需求的能見度也會發生變化，正如我們所知，在 90 天內甚至在 30 天內變化非常快——這些窗口會移動很長時間。

So I would say that there's not much change in that. And oftentimes, if customers aren't canceling orders, what they're doing is rescheduling them back out in time. So we're certainly seeing that happen as well.

所以我會說這沒有太大變化。通常，如果客戶沒有取消訂單，他們所做的就是及時重新安排訂單。所以我們當然也會看到這種情況發生。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes. So Embedded drove 10% year-over-year growth in the second half of last year. It also drove a slight sequential growth in the fourth quarter. So the business is holding up relatively well versus Analog. And I know that the team seems to have moved past some of the headwinds in this segment as you've sort of focused investments on selective markets and opportunities, right? Is that refocusing like helping the near-term trends in Embedded? And with all of the restructuring, how do you think about the forward opportunities and growth outlook for Embedded over the next few years?

是的。因此，嵌入式在去年下半年推動了 10% 的同比增長。它還推動了第四季度的小幅環比增長。因此，與 Analog 相比，該業務的表現相對較好。而且我知道團隊似乎已經克服了這一領域的一些不利因素，因為您將投資重點放在了選擇性市場和機會上，對嗎？這種重新聚焦是否有助於推動嵌入式領域的近期趨勢？隨著所有的重組，您如何看待未來幾年嵌入式的前瞻性機會和增長前景？

Yes, yes. Thanks -- great question. Thank you for it. Yes, first, I would just say that our efforts having an impact they are. And I would just say that we're pleased with the progress that we're making there with Embedded, and we believe that progress in those results just need to be measured again over time.

是的是的。謝謝 - 很好的問題。謝謝你。是的，首先，我只想說我們的努力產生了影響。我只想說，我們對我們在嵌入式方面取得的進展感到滿意，我們相信這些結果的進展需要隨著時間的推移再次衡量。

So we continue to work on that business and we'll continue to do that. When we think about the market opportunity for Embedded and Analog, we think that both of those markets have about the same growth opportunities. So in time, they'll -- the growth rates will converge though they could be -- you could see differences in any given quarter. But longer term, we believe that they can grow at the same rates. So thank you.

所以我們繼續致力於這項業務，我們將繼續這樣做。當我們考慮嵌入式和模擬的市場機會時，我們認為這兩個市場都有大致相同的增長機會。因此，隨著時間的推移，它們將——儘管它們可能會趨於一致——你可以看到任何給定季度的差異。但從長遠來看，我們相信它們可以以相同的速度增長。所以謝謝。

And Harlan, we'll go to the next caller, please.

Harlan，請接聽下一位來電者。

Next, we'll hear from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

接下來，我們將聽取瑞銀 (UBS) 的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri) 的講話。

Dave, I had a question about just the Analog business generally, both with respect to share and margins. The margins are quite a bit lower than in early '21 on quite a bit more revenue.

戴夫，我有一個關於模擬業務的一般問題，包括份額和利潤率。利潤率比 21 年初低得多，但收入要多得多。

I guess, is that all just still supply chain-related costs? And do we get that back at some point? And then on share, just in that same point, the share, we don't know what the -- all of the calendar fourth quarter looks like, but it's pretty clear that the share is going to be down about 150 basis points this year and you're kind of back to 2012 levels. So I just wonder kind of what's going on there? Is there some -- is there some pricing issues that might explain why that share would be down so much next, Dave? And then I have a follow-up.

我想，這還只是與供應鏈相關的成本嗎？我們會在某個時候取回嗎？然後是份額，就在同一點，份額，我們不知道 - 整個日曆第四季度的情況，但很明顯今年該份額將下降約 150 個基點你有點回到了 2012 年的水平。所以我只是想知道那裡發生了什麼？戴夫，是否有一些 - 是否有一些定價問題可以解釋為什麼接下來該份額會下降這麼多？然後我有一個後續行動。

Let me go ahead and start. And yes, let me address first on your margin question. Analog is a huge portion of the company. So anything you're seeing in Analog is what you're seeing at the company level. And when it comes to gross profit, we're very pleased with the results. We came in about as expected. And it decreased, as we said in the prepared remarks, it decreased primarily due to lower revenue.

讓我開始吧。是的，讓我先解決你的保證金問題。模擬是公司的很大一部分。因此，您在 Analog 中看到的任何東西都是您在公司層面上看到的。談到毛利潤，我們對結果非常滿意。我們按預期進來了。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，它減少了，主要是由於收入減少。

The transition of LFAB-related cost to cost of revenue as well as the cost related to increased investments over the last several quarters that are now flowing through the P&L. Those are long-term investments that are going to position us very well for top line growth for many years to come.

LFAB 相關成本向收入成本的轉變，以及與過去幾個季度增加的投資相關的成本，這些成本現在正在通過損益表流動。這些是長期投資，將使我們在未來許多年的收入增長中處於非常有利的地位。

And on the second part of the question, I think Dave already answered, you got to look at this over a long time, not only 1 quarter. And particularly during choppy times. So stay tuned on that.

關於問題的第二部分，我認為 Dave 已經回答了，你必須在很長一段時間內查看這個問題，而不僅僅是一個季度。尤其是在動盪時期。所以請繼續關注。

Yes. And I'll just add that I think our approach to building closer relationships with customers has served us well. As you know, we've moved and taken more of our revenue direct as well as providing services through ti.com. So it's provided a lot of advantages, including us being better able to see and respond to changes in demand.

是的。我只是補充一點，我認為我們與客戶建立更緊密關係的方法對我們很有幫助。如您所知，我們已經轉移並直接獲得更多收入，並通過 ti.com 提供服務。所以它提供了很多優勢，包括我們能夠更好地看到和響應需求的變化。

And as customers are reducing their inventories now, we haven't employed any long-term sales agreements or noncancelable non-reschedulable contracts, really just focused on customers and trying to meet their needs and service them well for the long term.

由於客戶現在正在減少庫存，我們沒有採用任何長期銷售協議或不可取消的不可重新安排的合同，實際上只是專注於客戶並努力滿足他們的需求並長期為他們提供良好的服務。

I think all those things has us in a position where we do believe that we're able to grow the top line faster over the next few years. And as we talked about, we'll give you some insight into that next week and how that's going to change some of our plans. So -- was that Tim's follow-up or you have a follow-up, Tim?

我認為所有這些事情讓我們相信我們能夠在未來幾年內更快地增長收入。正如我們所說，我們將在下週為您提供一些見解，以及這將如何改變我們的一些計劃。那麼 - 是蒂姆的跟進還是你有跟進，蒂姆？

I do, Dave. I do, Dave. So just a comment that autos grow in Q1. Is that a year-over-year comment? Or you expect auto to be up on a Q-on-Q basis also in Q1?

我知道，戴夫。我知道，戴夫。所以只是評論說汽車在第一季度增長。這是一年比一年的評論嗎？或者您希望汽車在第一季度也能以 Q-on-Q 為基礎增長？

Yes. So year-on-year, automotive was up about 30%. And just to put that in context from fourth quarter '19, I just picked that because it's pre-pandemic levels, our revenues in auto are up in the mid-70s. So we continue to see strong growth there.

是的。因此，與去年同期相比，汽車增長了約 30%。只是為了把它放在 19 年第四季度的背景下，我之所以選擇它是因為它是大流行前的水平，我們的汽車收入在 70 年代中期有所增加。因此，我們繼續看到那裡的強勁增長。

So that's the year-on-year -- the comment that we made before that it was up mid-single digits was a sequential comment; Tim.

這就是同比——我們之前發表的評論說它增長了中等個位數是一個連續的評論；蒂姆。

We'll go to the next caller, please.

請接聽下一位來電者。

Next, we'll hear from Ambrish Srivastava of BMO Capital Markets.

接下來，我們將聽取 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ambrish Srivastava 的講話。

Dave. I'll just stay with autos. It's interesting data point versus the pre-pandemic. But I'm just looking at the auto business and the rest of the business, everything is decelerating, as you would expect, and auto seems to be, if not accelerating, kind of in that high 20%, 30% range. I just wanted your perspective on what's your sense? Usually, all these things are pretty interconnected and maybe it's a quarter or 2 quarters before everything kind of follows the same cadence. So I would just love to get some perspective from you guys on the disparity between autos and the rest of the broader businesses?

戴夫。我會留在汽車。與大流行前相比，這是一個有趣的數據點。但我只關注汽車業務和其他業務，一切都在減速，正如你所預料的那樣，汽車似乎即使沒有加速，也處於 20%、30% 的高位範圍內。我只是想听聽您的看法？通常，所有這些事情都是相互關聯的，也許是四分之一或兩個季度後一切都遵循相同的節奏。所以我只想從你們那裡了解汽車與其他更廣泛業務之間的差異的一些觀點？

Yes. Ambrish, thanks. I'd say that as we you almost have to go back to the beginning of the pandemic and how revenues behaved as we went through first quarter and into second and third. And if you remember, as the pandemic spread in third quarter, we saw a wide and very deep cancellations across all of the markets, including automotive, but as we all went home to set up our home offices, we either bought a new monitor or a printer or PC.

是的。 Ambrish，謝謝。我想說的是，就像我們一樣，您幾乎必須回到大流行的開始，以及我們在第一季度、第二季度和第三季度的收入表現如何。如果你還記得，隨著第三季度大流行病的蔓延，我們看到包括汽車在內的所有市場都出現了廣泛而深刻的取消，但當我們都回家設立家庭辦公室時，我們要么買了一台新顯示器，要么打印機或 PC。

So very quickly, our personal electronics customers came back and came back very strong, if you remember. The other markets began to follow, but automotive was the last to respond. And people early in the pandemic weren't shopping for cars, they weren't going out of the house. So they had that issue and as manufacturers tried to reopen, they had more issues with COVID protocols and working to bring their plants back online.

所以很快，我們的個人電子產品客戶回來了，而且回來得非常強勁，如果你還記得的話。其他市場開始效仿，但汽車是最後一個做出回應的。大流行早期的人們並沒有購買汽車，他們也沒有走出家門。所以他們遇到了這個問題，隨著製造商試圖重新開放，他們在 COVID 協議和努力讓他們的工廠重新上線方面遇到了更多問題。

So it's not too surprising that as it asynchronously came out, it's asynchronously going down. So -- but all these markets, we believe, over the long term, will behave the same.

因此，當它異步出現時，它會異步下降也就不足為奇了。所以——但我們相信，從長遠來看，所有這些市場的表現都是一樣的。

And at some point, we believe that we will see a correction in automotive. It may not, but we don't -- we just don't know. And we'll continue to ship product to customer demand. It's obviously very strong. There's lots of reasons why besides us gaining share, there's more content, there's mix and other factors inside of that. But clearly, there's inventory built across all markets is inclusive of automotive.

在某個時候，我們相信我們會看到汽車行業出現調整。可能不會，但我們不知道——我們只是不知道。我們將繼續根據客戶需求運送產品。明明是很強的。除了我們獲得份額之外，還有更多的內容、混合和其他因素，這有很多原因。但顯然，所有市場的庫存都包括汽車。

So do you have a follow-on?

那你有後續嗎？

I did. Just a quick one on the cash grant side of the CHIPS Act and whatever I have read it may be incorrect, but my recollection is that in Q1, Q2 time frame, the government will delineate kind of the guidelines? And what's your expectation of when that cash starts to come in?

我做到了。關於 CHIPS 法案的現金補助方面的快速介紹，無論我讀到什麼，它都可能不正確，但我記得在第一季度、第二季度的時間範圍內，政府將製定什麼樣的指導方針？您對現金何時開始流入有何期望？

Yes. So the CHIPS Act has both an ITC, investment tax credit and grants. So you're asking about the grants. We're still working through those details. We do not have an update to share right now. Though the applications open in February. So we are actively -- we're going to actively seek funding on those in whatever we could qualify. So we're going to submit our application in February. But right now, we don't have any information to share on that. The -- all the accruals that we have taken so far, the $400 million that we have taken are all for ITC for investment tax credit, 25% investment credit for U.S.-based manufacturing.

是的。因此，CHIPS 法案既有 ITC、投資稅收抵免和贈款。所以你問的是補助金。我們仍在研究這些細節。我們現在沒有要分享的更新。雖然申請在二月份開放。因此，我們正在積極地——我們將積極為那些我們有資格的人尋求資金。所以我們打算在二月份提交我們的申請。但是現在，我們沒有任何信息可以分享。到目前為止，我們獲得的所有應計費用，我們獲得的 4 億美元全部用於 ITC 的投資稅收抵免，25% 的投資抵免用於美國製造業。

And the timing on that, Rafael, you will let us know about when that flows through the cash flow later on, right?

拉斐爾，你會在稍後告訴我們現金流量的時間，對嗎？

Yes. In fact, let me take a second and kind of walk through how it flows through the financials. So you can actually look at our balance sheet on the Page 4 of our release, the other long-term assets that is up to $1.1 billion. You can see the increase year-on-year. That's where a $400 million receivable is for that ITC.

是的。事實上，讓我花點時間來了解一下它是如何流經財務的。所以你實際上可以在我們發布的第 4 頁上查看我們的資產負債表，其他長期資產高達 11 億美元。你可以看到同比增長。這就是該 ITC 的 4 億美元應收賬款。

If we had not taken the ITC, that $400 million would have gone to property, plant and equipment. So you can see property, plant and equipment $6.9 billion, that would have been $7.3 billion. So instead on a long-term asset, a receivable Therefore, it's not going to depreciate that $400 million doesn't appreciate because it's not part of PP&E.

如果我們沒有接受 ITC，那 4 億美元就會花在財產、廠房和設備上。所以你可以看到財產、廠房和設備價值 69 億美元，本來是 73 億美元。因此，在長期資產上，應收賬款因此不會貶值，因為 4 億美元不升值，因為它不是 PP&E 的一部分。

And eventually, we'll get the cash. Now to your question right now, based on our interpretation of the law, we're not going to get that cash until late '24. And then every year, it will be like 1 year in [arrears], right? You get a kind of 1 year late, but that could change. Clearly, that's something that companies are advocating forward to get that cash early.

最終，我們會拿到現金。現在回答你的問題，根據我們對法律的解釋，我們要到 24 年底才能拿到這筆現金。然後每年都會[拖欠] 1 年，對嗎？你遲到了 1 年，但這可能會改變。顯然，這是公司提倡提前獲得現金的事情。

But right now, we're not planning to get that until '24. So again, that's how you see it on the balance sheet, lower PP&E. You see a receivable instead then because of lower PP&E, you have lower depreciation over the life of the asset and then the receivable because the receivable eventually, you get the cash, so it goes from a receivable to the cash line. right? And then eventually, we return it to the owners of the company or use it for other corporate purposes. Hopefully, that answers your question.

但現在，我們不打算在 24 年前獲得它。再一次，這就是你在資產負債表上看到的，降低 PP&E。你看到的是應收賬款，因為較低的 PP&E，你在資產生命週期內的折舊較低，然後是應收賬款，因為應收賬款最終你會得到現金，所以它從應收賬款轉到現金線。正確的？最後，我們將其歸還給公司所有者或將其用於其他公司目的。希望這能回答您的問題。

Yes. Maybe just quickly there. '24 timing is tied to when we file our taxes for '23, right?

是的。也許很快就到了。 '24 的時間與我們為 '23 報稅的時間有關，對嗎？

Yes. So yes, so not to add more confusion, but we get the cash through filing the taxes. However, this will not affect the tax rate because the accounting will put that, as I just described, through lower PP&E and you actually see the cash in the cash flow statement in the investing section. But the actual receiving of the cash happens at tax filing time in October or so of September of every year, and we just paid less taxes to that. But again, not to confuse you, the tax rate will not change.

是的。所以是的，所以不要增加更多的混亂，但我們通過報稅獲得現金。然而，這不會影響稅率，因為正如我剛才所描述的，會計會通過較低的 PP&E 來計算，你實際上會在投資部分的現金流量表中看到現金。但實際收到現金是在每年 10 月或 9 月左右的報稅時間，我們只是為此少交了稅。但同樣，不要混淆你，稅率不會改變。

Okay. Operator, we have time for 1 more caller, please.

好的。接線員，我們有時間再接聽一位來電者。

And our final question for today will come from Joshua Buchalter of Cowen.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Joshua Buchalter。

You mentioned customers getting inventory lower in the quarter. You're more direct than many of your peers that you have a better, I guess, view into end demand theoretically. And so can you help us understand are we close to bottoming? Do you think we're getting to healthy levels? And were there particular end markets that saw more acute inventory correction in the short term?

您提到客戶在本季度的庫存下降。你比你的許多同行更直接，我猜你在理論上對最終需求有更好的看法。那麼你能幫助我們了解我們是否接近觸底？你認為我們達到健康水平了嗎？是否有特定的終端市場在短期內出現更劇烈的庫存調整？

Yes. Joshua, maybe just quickly, obviously, when customers begin reducing inventory, it's number 1 quarter phenomenon. It usually takes several quarters for that to happen. We won't have insight. And obviously, will also depend on what happens to their end demand which we can't predict. And -- but yes, we do believe that we get better visibility because we do have more direct relationships with customers overall.

是的。約書亞，也許很快，很明顯，當客戶開始減少庫存時，這是第一季度的現象。這通常需要幾個季度才能發生。我們不會有洞察力。顯然，這也將取決於我們無法預測的最終需求會發生什麼。而且 - 但是是的，我們確實相信我們會獲得更好的知名度，因為我們確實與整體客戶建立了更直接的關係。

So do you have a follow-on?

那你有後續嗎？

Yes. A lot of attention gets paid to your CapEx for obvious reasons, but R&D grew, I think, 7%, 8% in 2022, after being flat for a few years. And I think you guys fair unfair get [deemed] for under investing on the R&D line. So I was wondering, could you walk through some of your priorities for that spending? And how should we think about R&D into 2023 recognized? It might be a question for next week.

是的。出於顯而易見的原因，您的資本支出受到了很多關注，但我認為，在幾年持平之後，研發在 2022 年增長了 7%、8%。而且我認為你們公平不公平地 [被認為] 對研發線的投資不足。所以我想知道，你能談談你在這些支出方面的一些優先事項嗎？我們應該如何考慮到 2023 年的研發？這可能是下週的問題。

Sure. No, I'm happy to address that. So first, these are long-term investments in nature. The R&D clearly -- that's where we get the -- continue to build in the broad portfolio. That's where we have process technology, and that we get results over many, many years into the future, and we're going to protect those investments.

當然。不，我很樂意解決這個問題。首先，這些本質上是長期投資。研發顯然——這就是我們得到的——繼續建立廣泛的產品組合。這就是我們擁有工藝技術的地方，我們在未來許多年內取得成果，我們將保護這些投資。

But it's not just R&D. Even in SG&A, we have areas that are tied to capabilities, ti.com is the best example. That's another place where we're investing, and that's tied to long-term top line growth of the company to be strengthening the reach of channel advantage.

但這不僅僅是研發。即使在 SG&A 中，我們也有與能力相關的領域，ti.com 就是最好的例子。這是我們投資的另一個地方，這與公司的長期收入增長有關，以加強渠道優勢的影響範圍。

You could add CapEx to that picture, that's also obviously a long-term investment to strengthen our manufacturing and technology advantage. If you look at the -- over the last 4 or 5 years, our OpEx or R&D and SG&A, they've been at a very steady $3.2 billion for -- like 4 or 5 years. This year, for the first time, we ticked that up to $3.4 billion. So we went up a little bit as we increased the investments [and actually there] was an impact on -- due to inflation, which we're not immune to that.

您可以將資本支出添加到該圖片中，這顯然也是一項加強我們的製造和技術優勢的長期投資。如果你看看——在過去的 4 或 5 年裡，我們的運營支出或研發和 SG&A，它們在 4 或 5 年內一直穩定在 32 億美元。今年，我們首次將這一數字提高到 34 億美元。因此，隨著我們增加投資 [實際上] 產生了一些影響 - 由於通貨膨脹，我們無法倖免。

You can expect that to continue increasing a little bit over the -- in '23 and over the next several years as we continue to increase investment. There's also the inflation component. And -- but big picture, those are great long-term investments that will fuel the growth for the company over the next 10 to 15 years.

隨著我們繼續增加投資，你可以預期在 23 年和接下來的幾年裡，這一數字會繼續增加一點。還有通貨膨脹因素。而且——但總體而言，這些都是偉大的長期投資，將在未來 10 到 15 年內推動公司的增長。

Okay. Thank you, Joshua, and thank you all for joining us. Again, we look forward to sharing with you our capital management update next Thursday, February 2 at 10:00 a.m. Central Time. And a replay of this call will be available shortly on our website. Good evening.

好的。謝謝你，約書亞，感謝大家加入我們。我們再次期待在中部時間 2 月 2 日下週四上午 10:00 與您分享我們的資本管理更新。我們的網站上很快就會提供此次通話的重播。晚上好。

That does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。