德州儀器 (TXN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起的還有我們的財務長拉斐爾·利扎爾迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。對於錯過該發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。此次電話會議正在網路上進行現場直播，您可以透過我們的網站進行存取。此外，今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將透過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into third quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. Lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, give an update on capital management as well as share the guidance for our fourth quarter 2023.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將首先快速概述本季。接下來，我將提供對第三季營收結果的深入了解，以及我們在終端市場上看到的一些細節。最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績、提供資本管理的最新資訊以及分享 2023 年第四季的指導。

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter. Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $4.5 billion, flat sequentially and a decrease of 14% year-over-year. Analog revenue declined 16%. Embedded Processing grew 8%, and our Other segment declined 32% from the year ago quarter. Now I'll provide some insight into our third quarter revenue by market.

首先快速概述本季。該季度營收約為 45 億美元，與預期一致，與上一季持平，年減 14%。模擬收入下降 16%。嵌入式處理年增 8%，其他業務較去年同期下降 32%。現在我將按市場提供一些關於我們第三季收入的見解。

During the quarter, automotive growth continued and industrial weakness broadened. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on a sequential performance as it's more informative at this time. First, the industrial market was down mid-single digits, with weakness broadening across nearly all sectors. The automotive market continued to grow and was up mid-single digits. Personal Electronics was up about 20% off a low base. And next, communications equipment was down upper teens. And finally, enterprise systems grew upper single digits. Given where the market is now, it's a good time to remind everyone of our plan and areas of strategic investments.

本季，汽車產業持續成長，工業疲軟擴大。與上季類似，我將專注於連續表現，因為此時它的訊息更豐富。首先，工業市場出現中個位數下跌，幾乎所有產業的疲軟程度都在擴大。汽車市場持續成長，成長率達到中個位數。個人電子產品較低基數上漲約 20%。接下來，通訊設備的價格下降了十幾歲。最後，企業系統成長了個位數。鑑於目前的市場狀況，現在是提醒大家我們的計畫和策略投資領域的好時機。

First, our confidence in the secular growth of semiconductor content per system, especially in industrial and automotive, remains high, and we're well positioned in these markets. Second, our long-term 300-millimeter manufacturing road map provides our customers with geopolitically dependable capacity. To support these build-outs and enable future growth, we continue to expect associated capital expenditures to be about $5 billion per year through 2026. In addition, we made good progress on our inventory replenishment, consistent with our long-term objectives to support growth and provide high levels of customer service.

首先，我們對每個系統的半導體含量的長期成長仍然充滿信心，特別是在工業和汽車領域，並且我們在這些市場中處於有利地位。其次，我們的長期 300 毫米製造路線圖為我們的客戶提供了地緣政治上可靠的產能。為了支持這些擴張並實現未來成長，我們仍然預計到 2026 年每年相關資本支出約為 50 億美元。此外，我們在庫存補充方面取得了良好進展，這符合我們支持成長的長期目標並提供高水準的客戶服務。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter revenue was $4.5 billion, down 14% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.8 billion or 62% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue and to a lesser extent, higher manufacturing costs associated with planned capacity expansion and reduced factory loadings.

謝謝戴夫，大家下午好。第三季營收為 45 億美元，年減 14%。該季度毛利為 28 億美元，佔營收的 62%。與一年前相比，毛利下降的主要原因是收入下降，以及較小程度與計劃產能擴張和工廠負荷減少相關的製造成本上升。

As a reminder, LFAB-related charges transitioned to cost of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022. Gross profit margin decreased 690 basis points. Operating expenses in the quarter were $923 million up 7% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.7 billion or 20% of revenue. Operating profit was $1.9 billion in the quarter or 42% of revenue and was down 29% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the third quarter was $1.7 billion or $1.85 per share. Earnings per share included a $0.05 benefit for items that were not in our original guidance.

需要提醒的是，與 LFAB 相關的費用在 2022 年第四季轉變為收入成本。毛利率下降了 690 個基點。該季度營運費用為 9.23 億美元，比去年同期成長 7%，基本符合預期。過去 12 個月的營運支出為 37 億美元，佔營收的 20%。本季營業利潤為 19 億美元，佔營收的 42%，較去年同期下降 29%。第三季淨利為 17 億美元，即每股 1.85 美元。每股收益包括 0.05 美元的福利，這些福利不在我們最初的指導中。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.9 billion in the quarter and $6.5 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.5 billion in the quarter and $4.9 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $1.6 billion. In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends and repurchased about $50 million of our stock. In September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 5%, marking our 20th consecutive year of dividend increases. This action reflects our continued commitment to return free cash flow to our owners over time.

現在讓我從我們的現金產生開始評論我們的資本管理結果。本季營運現金流為 19 億美元，過去 12 個月營運現金流為 65 億美元。本季資本支出為 15 億美元，過去 12 個月資本支出為 49 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 16 億美元。本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息，並回購了約 5,000 萬美元的股票。 9 月，我們宣布將股息增加 5%，這是我們連續 20 年增加股息。這項行動反映了我們對隨著時間的推移向所有者返還自由現金流的持續承諾。

In total, we have returned $5.6 billion in the past 12 months. Our balance sheet remains strong with $8.9 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter. Total debt outstanding was $11.3 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.5%. Inventory at the end of the quarter was $3.9 billion, and days were 205, down 2 days sequentially. Inventory was up $179 million in the third quarter, less than half the increase versus the prior quarter as we near our desired inventory levels.

過去 12 個月，我們總共回饋了 56 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第三季末現金和短期投資為 89 億美元。未償還債務總額為 113 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.5%。季末庫存為 39 億美元，天數為 205 天，較上季下降 2 天。第三季庫存增加了 1.79 億美元，增幅不到上一季的一半，因為我們已接近理想的庫存水準。

Therefore, we began to lower factory starts in the third quarter, which results in additional charges to the income statement. This impact is comprehended in our outlook. For the fourth quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.93 billion to $4.27 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.35 to $1.57 as we continue to operate in a weak environment.

因此，我們在第三季開始降低工廠開工率，這導致損益表中出現額外費用。我們的展望中包含了這種影響。由於我們繼續在疲軟的環境中運營，我們預計第四季度 TI 收入將在 39.3 億美元至 42.7 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.35 美元至 1.57 美元之間。

Lastly, we continue to expect our 2023 effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%. As you are looking at your models for 2024, based on current tax law, we would expect our effective tax rate to remain about what it is in 2023. In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

最後，我們繼續預期 2023 年有效稅率約為 13% 至 14%。當您考慮 2024 年的模型時，根據現行稅法，我們預計我們的有效稅率將保持在 2023 年的水平。最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續實現每股自由現金流的長期成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說到這裡，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions). Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開提問線路。 （操作員說明）。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

My first one, I did want to ask about gross margin. So I mean, depending on what I assume for OpEx mix, where I'm getting something like 250 basis points of compression, maybe more. I know you talked a little bit about how some of that is the impact of utilization. Can you give us some feeling for, I guess, like the magnitude of the different drivers, utilization, lower revenue, depreciation, pricing? And how we ought to be thinking about that trajectory as we get into the next year? Like is there more to go, I guess, is what I'm asking?

我的第一個問題是，我確實想問毛利率。所以我的意思是，根據我對營運支出組合的假設，我會得到大約 250 個基點的壓縮，甚至更多。我知道您談到了其中一些是利用率的影響。我想，您能給我們一些感覺，例如不同驅動因素的大小、使用率、較低的收入、折舊、定價嗎？當我們進入明年時，我們該如何思考這一軌跡？我想，還有更多的事情要做嗎？這就是我要問的？

Yes. So thanks, Stacy. Let me try to help you with that. Of course, we -- for the forecast, we give a range on revenue and a range on EPS, not the pieces. But let me -- let me go through some of what I said for third quarter, which applies for fourth quarter and beyond. So for third quarter, like I said in the prepared remarks, in third quarter gross profit decreased primarily due to revenues as the first driver and to a lesser extent, higher manufacturing costs associated with planned capacity expansion, namely -- depreciation is the main one there and reduced factory loadings and that's the underutilization component.

是的。所以謝謝，史黛西。讓我試著幫助你。當然，對於預測，我們給出了收入範圍和每股盈餘範圍，而不是具體數據。但是讓我 - 讓我回顧一下我在第三季度所說的一些內容，這些內容適用於第四季度及以後的情況。因此，對於第三季度，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，第三季度毛利下降主要是由於收入作為第一驅動因素，在較小程度上，與計劃產能擴張相關的製造成本上升，即折舊是主要因素那裡並減少了工廠負荷，這就是未充分利用的部分。

Then as I also said in the prepared remarks, inventory, which is the other side of the coin, as we near desired levels of inventory, we began lowering factories starting in the third quarter. So there was an impact in third quarter due to that on the income statement, there will be a bigger impact in fourth quarter due to that. Beyond that, we're not forecasting, but of course, that will depend on revenue expectations well into next year. Do you have a follow-up?

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，庫存是硬幣的另一面，當我們接近理想的庫存水準時，我們從第三季開始減少工廠。因此，由於對損益表的影響，第三季受到了影響，因此第四季的影響將會更大。除此之外，我們不會進行預測，但當然，這將取決於明年的收入預期。你有後續行動嗎？

I do thanks. Can you gave us a little color on the end market behavior in Q3? Can you give us some thoughts on even qualitatively what to expect by end market into Q4? And particularly for auto, it sounds like auto and Q3 was so strong. Do you still see that strength continuing into Q4 and the year-end?

我非常感謝。您能為我們介紹一下第三季終端市場的行為嗎？您能否給我們一些關於第四季終端市場預期的定性的想法？尤其是對於汽車來說，聽起來汽車和 Q3 非常強大。您仍然認為這種強勁勢頭會持續到第四季和年底嗎？

Yes, Stacy, I'll take that. When you look at the guidance, it would suggest and we believe that we continue to operate in a weak environment in general. And if there was something significant that was changing from 1 quarter to the next, is our typical practice, we highlight that. And we just don't have anything to specifically call out for in the fourth quarter. So thanks, and we'll go to the next caller please.

是的，史黛西，我會接受的。當您查看該指引時，它會表明我們相信我們總體上將繼續在疲軟的環境中運作。如果從一個季度到下一個季度有什麼重大變化，這是我們的典型做法，我們會強調這一點。我們在第四季沒有什麼特別值得關注的。謝謝，我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Dave, I also had a question on autos. It sounds like it's holding in there despite this broadening strike. And I guess the question is, are more of your customers on consignment in that business? Or is the split in auto is about the same as that 2/3, 1/3 versus the rest of the company? And I asked because I'm wondering sort of what you're seeing on the disti side that you would sell into autos? Do you see bookings at least weakening that would be more consistent with what we're seeing in terms of this strike and some of the weak macro numbers that we see.

戴夫，我還有一個關於汽車的問題。儘管罷工範圍擴大，但聽起來它仍堅守在那裡。我想問題是，您的客戶中有更多的客戶從事這項業務嗎？或汽車業務的比例與公司其他業務的比例大致相同，分別為 2/3、1/3？我問這個問題是因為我想知道你在分銷方面看到了什麼，你會賣給汽車嗎？您是否認為預訂量至少會減弱，這與我們在這次罷工和我們看到的一些疲軟的宏觀數據方面所看到的更加一致。

Sure. Yes. And as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, it was up -- auto was up mid-single digits sequentially, and it was up 20% when you look year-on-year. So obviously, that growth had continued. In general, I would say that a market like Automotive and Personal Electronics will have larger customers, those larger customers tend to be biased to more consignment. So we would have that probably more in automotive than if I contrast it to a market perhaps like industrial.

當然。是的。正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的，汽車產業連續上漲了中個位數，年增了 20%。顯然，這種成長仍在持續。總的來說，我想說像汽車和個人電子產品這樣的市場會有更大的客戶，這些大客戶往往傾向於更多的寄賣。因此，如果我將其與工業等市場進行對比，我們在汽車領域可能會擁有更多的這種優勢。

But overall, as you know, we've moved to having closer direct relationships with customers, which would include the customers that we have in automotive. And I think we service pretty close to 1,000 or so different automotive OEMs. So there is quite a bit of broadness in who we serve there. Do you have a follow-on, Tim?

但總的來說，如您所知，我們已經開始與客戶建立更密切的直接關係，其中包括我們在汽車領域的客戶。我認為我們為大約 1,000 家左右不同的汽車原始設備製造商提供服務。因此，我們在那裡服務的對象相當廣泛。提姆，你有後續嗎？

I do, Dave. Yes. So what would it take to for you to think about cutting CapEx. And I asked because the plan was put into place when revenue was quite a bit higher than where it is today. Is there kind of a line in the sand for revenue where you would reconsider the plan? I know you've actually increased the plan while revenues continue to weaken. But is there some like tree around -- is there some -- if it weakens to this point, you would consider cutting CapEx? Just wondering any comments there.

我願意，戴夫。是的。那麼，您需要考慮削減資本支出嗎？我問這個問題是因為該計劃是在收入比現在高得多的時候實施的。收入方面是否存在某種界限，您會重新考慮該計劃？我知道您實際上已經增加了計劃，而收入卻繼續下降。但是周圍是否有一些像樹一樣的東西——是否有一些——如果它削弱到這個程度，你會考慮削減資本支出？只是想知道那裡有什麼評論。

Yes, let me comment on that. We're very pleased with the progress on our manufacturing expansion they will provide geopolitically dependable capacity for -- to support customer growth for the coming decade. And as you know, semiconductor content continues to increase and to provide us the ability to grow at that 10% growth rate that we talked about at the last capital management call, if the market requires that, we'll continue to make those investments. So we continue to expect $5 billion of CapEx per year in '23, '24, '25 and '26. So you should count on that.

是的，讓我對此發表評論。我們對我們的製造擴張取得的進展感到非常高興，他們將提供地緣政治上可靠的產能，以支持未來十年的客戶成長。如您所知，半導體內容不斷增加，並使我們有能力以我們在上次資本管理電話會議上談到的 10％ 的增長率增長，如果市場需要，我們將繼續進行這些投資。因此，我們繼續預期 23 年、24 年、25 年和 26 年每年的資本支出將達到 50 億美元。所以你應該指望這一點。

Let me also give everyone, as a reminder, these CapEx numbers are gross, meaning they do not include benefits from the ITC or grants from the CHIPS Act. So we're actively working through the grant application process with the CHIPS program office which we believe will be meaningful to our manufacturing operations in Texas and Utah and will help support semiconductor growth for decades to come. And funding from the CHIPS -- from the CHIPS Act grant was comprehended in our decision-making for these investments.

我還要提醒大家，這些資本支出數字是毛額，這意味著它們不包括 ITC 的收益或 CHIPS 法案的撥款。因此，我們正在積極與 CHIPS 計畫辦公室合作，完成撥款申請流程，我們相信這對我們在德州和猶他州的製造業務有意義，並將有助於支持未來幾十年的半導體成長。來自 CHIPS 的資金——來自 CHIPS 法案的撥款已包含在我們對這些投資的決策中。

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

In the third quarter, I think it was the first time in a few years that you guys just came in at the midpoint of your guidance. Usually, you beat it by 2%, 3%, 4%, something like that. So I guess my question is, anything strange in the linearity in the quarter, either by end market, just aggregate bookings. Any color on that you could provide?

在第三季度，我認為這是你們幾年來第一次進入指導的中點。通常，你會擊敗它 2%、3%、4% 之類的。所以我想我的問題是，本季的線性有什麼奇怪的地方，無論是終端市場，還是總預訂量。您可以提供任何顏色嗎？

Nothing strange, Ross. I'd say that revenue built as we went through the quarter. And I'd say just in general, it's reflective of a weak environment that we're operating in, so which is obvious from the guidance that we're giving. Do you have a follow-on?

沒什麼奇怪的，羅斯。我想說的是，我們整個季度的收入都在增加。我想說的是，總的來說，這反映了我們所處的弱勢環境，因此從我們提供的指導中可以明顯看出這一點。你有後續嗎？

I did. On the end market side of things, you said Automotive was up about 20% year-over-year. I know oftentimes you go between giving sequential or year-over-year, but could you give us year-over-year by the end markets, please?

我做到了。在終端市場方面，您說汽車產業年增了約 20%。我知道您經常在提供連續數據或逐年數據之間徘徊，但是您能給我們最終市場的逐年數據嗎？

Certainly, certainly. Yes. So industrial market was down mid-teens. I mentioned Automotive was up about 20%. Personal Electronics was down about 30%, Comms Equipment was down about 50% and Enterprise System was down about 40%. So I think consistent with that weaker environment that we talked about. So thank you, Ross.

當然，當然。是的。因此，工業市場下跌了十多歲。我提到汽車產業上漲了約 20%。個人電子產品下降約 30%，通訊設備下降約 50%，企業系統下降約 40%。所以我認為這與我們談到的較弱的環境是一致的。謝謝你，羅斯。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的對話。

I was hoping you guys could elaborate a little bit on the pricing environment. I think many of us have been picking up evidence of the pricing environment, particularly in Asia. Intensifying over the past couple of months or a couple of quarters. You don't really give pricing as a reason for gross margins to be down sequentially and year-over-year. But what kind of role is pricing playing? Has your strategy changed at all, whether it be on the Analog side or the MCU side?

我希望你們能詳細說明一下定價環境。我認為我們很多人都在收集定價環境的證據，尤其是在亞洲。過去幾個月或幾個季度加劇。你並沒有真正將定價作為毛利率連續和同比下降的原因。但定價扮演著什麼樣的角色呢？無論是模擬方面還是 MCU 方面，您的策略是否發生了根本變化？

Yes. So thanks for that question. Always helpful to be able to clarify that. And first, I'll just start with pricing doesn't move quickly in our markets, nor is it a primary reason that customers choose our products. So we're typically agreeing to pricing that's out to 6 months or on an annual basis for the following year. And so we're continuing to move through that. Our pricing strategy, as we mentioned before, hasn't changed. So we're regularly monitoring what's going on with pricing. We always have a goal to remain competitive.

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題。能夠澄清這一點總是有幫助的。首先，我首先要說的是，我們市場上的定價變化並不快，這也不是客戶選擇我們產品的主要原因。因此，我們通常會同意 6 個月內的定價或下一年的年度定價。因此，我們將繼續解決這個問題。正如我們之前提到的，我們的定價策略並沒有改變。因此，我們會定期監控定價狀況。我們始終有一個目標，就是保持競爭力。

And certainly, supply and demand has come into balance, or more closer to balance. We've said for some time that we would expect that pricing to behave like it has over the last couple of decades, meaning low single-digit decline. So as we move out in time, that's what we're beginning to see. So really no changes other than going back to what we've seen over the last couple of decades. Do you have a follow-on?

當然，供給和需求已經達到平衡，或更接近平衡。一段時間以來，我們一直表示，我們預計定價會像過去幾十年一樣，這意味著較低的個位數下降。因此，當我們及時離開時，這就是我們開始看到的情況。因此，除了回到過去幾十年我們所看到的情況之外，實際上沒有任何變化。你有後續嗎？

Yes, I do, Dave. So I guess over the past 12 months, OpEx is up about 10%. And revenue is down about 10%. So as we think about calendar '24, I was hoping you could give us a hint as to how to think about OpEx. And Dave, I think you used to give or you had given multiyear guidance on depreciation. How should we -- to the extent there are any updates, how should we think about '24 and '25 depreciation?

是的，我願意，戴夫。所以我猜在過去 12 個月裡，營運支出成長了約 10%。收入下降了約 10%。因此，當我們考慮 24 個日曆時，我希望您能給我們一些關於如何考慮營運支出的提示。戴夫，我認為您曾經或曾經提供過有關折舊的多年指導。如果有任何更新，我們應該如何考慮 '24 和 '25 折舊？

Yes. No. Thanks for the question. I'll address both OpEx and depreciation. So on OpEx, we've held a steady hand on OpEx for many years, and we'll continue to do so. So as an example, to illustrate the point from 2017 to 2021, we ran at about $3.2 billion of OpEx. And then in '22, it ticked up to $3.4 billion. And now we're running at about $3.7 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. So you can see the steady hand and just a bit of an increase over the last few years. And that's, as we have held a steady hand with our hires, new college hires and as we make investments to continue to strengthen the company in the case of R&D, the broad portfolio in the case with sales and ti.com on the reach of our channels.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。我將討論營運支出和折舊。因此，在營運支出方面，我們多年來一直在營運支出上保持穩定，並將繼續這樣做。舉個例子，為了說明這一點，從 2017 年到 2021 年，我們的營運支出約為 32 億美元。然後在 22 年，這個數字上升到了 34 億美元。現在，我們過去 12 個月的收入約為 37 億美元。所以你可以看到過去幾年的穩定和略有增長。也就是說，我們在招聘和新大學招聘方面保持穩定，並且我們進行投資以繼續加強公司的研發、銷售和 ti.com 的廣泛投資組合我們的管道。

Then on depreciation, so our CapEx expansions are unchanged. We've talked about that, addressed it with the previous caller. So $5 billion of CapEx per year for the next '23 and 3 years beyond that, that we have been talking about. Now when it comes to depreciation, as time has passed, we have more clarity on what to expect on depreciation. So for fourth quarter, let me start fourth quarter of '23, we expect depreciation to increase on a quarterly basis at about the same rate as what we have been seeing throughout 2023. So essentially, we're going to end the year just shy of $1.2 billion, maybe [11-9, 11-8, 11-70] somewhere in that range for the year.

然後是折舊，因此我們的資本支出擴張保持不變。我們已經討論過這個問題，並與先前的來電者進行了討論。因此，我們一直在談論未來 23 年以及之後 3 年每年 50 億美元的資本支出。現在，當談到折舊時，隨著時間的推移，我們對折舊的預期更加清晰。因此，對於第四季度，讓我從23 年第四季度開始，我們預計折舊率將按季度增加，其速度與我們在2023 年全年看到的速度大致相同。因此，從本質上講，我們將在今年結束時略顯不足12 億美元，也許 [11-9, 11-8, 11-70] 今年在這個範圍內。

As an update for 2024, we expect depreciation to be between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion and for 2025 to be between $2 billion and $2.5 billion. We'll go to the next caller, please.

作為 2024 年的更新，我們預計折舊將在 15 億美元至 18 億美元之間，2025 年的折舊將在 20 億美元至 25 億美元之間。請讓我們接聽下一個來電者。

Our next question comes from the line of Ambrish Srivastava with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ambrish Srivastava。

I had a question on factory loadings and inventory. So correct me if I'm wrong. I thought the thinking up until now has been, we got to be ready for the upturn. And so we're building inventory for that. And you have highlighted that over several quarters, look, we're not -- we don't have a target, but you did raise the target in terms of how much inventory you want to carry. So this change, which I want to make sure I'm reading it right, that you're taking an underutilization charge because you've reached a desired level of inventory. Is that a reflection that your expectation for the recovery is changing, i.e., you're expecting slower ramp in revenues than what you perhaps were thinking a couple of quarters ago?

我有一個關於工廠裝貨和庫存的問題。所以如果我錯了請糾正我。我認為到目前為止我們的想法是，我們必須為經濟好轉做好準備。所以我們正在為此建立庫存。您強調，在幾個季度中，我們沒有——我們沒有目標，但您確實提高了您想要攜帶的庫存量的目標。因此，我想確保我沒有讀錯，因為您已經達到了所需的庫存水平，所以您將收取未充分利用的費用。這是否反映出您對復甦的預期正在發生變化，即您預計收入成長速度將比幾個季度前的預期要慢？

Let me start, and Dave, if you want to chime in. But we have targets for where we want inventory levels to be and that goes by product and by state of finish of those products. So for example, of the 80,000 different products that we have, more than -- the vast majority of those are catalog, meaning they sell to many, many customers. They last for a long, long time. So we can have so many years of inventory at the chip level or finished goods level, in many cases, at both levels, and that's based on our internal process to set those.

讓我開始吧，戴夫，如果你想插話的話。但我們對庫存水準有目標，並且根據產品和這些產品的完成狀態而定。例如，在我們擁有的 80,000 種不同產品中，絕大多數都是目錄產品，這意味著它們銷售給許多許多客戶。它們會持續很長很長的時間。因此，我們可以在晶片層級或成品層級擁有多年的庫存，在許多情況下，在這兩個層級上，這是基於我們設定這些層級的內部流程。

So those are the -- and in aggregate, that's added up to $4 billion to $4.5 billion, and that's what we've been kind of guiding to and we've been talking about. But what really matters is what happens at the very specific level on a part-by-part number. So as we have near those levels, and you see our inventory level -- inventory levels have increased about $500 million per quarter for 2 quarters, and then this last quarter, $179 million. So clearly, there is a deceleration of that growth, and that's on purpose because as we near those levels, then we have slowed down the factory starts, that goes primarily with the fab, but also with the assembly test operations.

這些就是——總的來說，總計達 40 億至 45 億美元，這就是我們一直在指導和討論的內容。但真正重要的是在具體的層級上逐個部件發生的情況。因此，當我們接近這些水準時，您會看到我們的庫存水準——庫存水準在兩個季度中每季增加了約 5 億美元，然後在最後一個季度增加了 1.79 億美元。很明顯，成長速度有所放緩，這是故意的，因為當我們接近這些水平時，我們就會放慢工廠的開工速度，這主要與晶圓廠有關，但也與組裝測試作業有關。

And then we -- that slowdown will continue into fourth quarter. So they reversed the other side of slowing your factory loading is the underutilization charges. So we -- as we near those levels, we are ready to be on the other side of this cycle for the upturn. And of course, it's not just inventory. Capacity is really the bigger driver, but you know what we've been doing on that now for a number of years and we're investing, but inventory really bridges that gap as an upturn happens until you get your factories really cranking at a higher level.

然後我們——這種放緩將持續到第四季。因此，他們扭轉了工廠裝載速度減慢的另一面，即利用率不足的費用。因此，當我們接近這些水準時，我們就準備好進入這個週期的另一端，迎接經濟好轉。當然，這不僅僅是庫存。產能確實是更大的驅動力，但你知道我們多年來一直在這方面做什麼，我們正在投資，但隨著經濟好轉，庫存確實彌合了這一差距，直到你的工廠真正以更高的速度運轉。等級。

Yes. And I'll just add and bring back to our capital management that we've been saying for, I think, over a decade now, our objective with inventory is to maintain high levels of customer service, keep our lead times stable, keep product availability really high. So as we talked about earlier, ti.com, really essentially all of our catalog products are available for immediate shipment. Lead times are stable. And so we are prepared for that next upturn what it does come. You have a follow-on, Ambrish?

是的。我只想補充並回到我們的資本管理，我認為，十多年來，我們的庫存目標是保持高水準的客戶服務，保持交貨時間穩定，保持產品可用性真的很高。正如我們之前談到的，ti.com，實際上我們所有的目錄產品都可以立即發貨。交貨時間穩定。因此，我們已經為下一次經濟好轉做好了準備。你有後續作品嗎，安布里什？

Yes. Quick one, Dave. Just looking at the year-over-year in the fourth quarter, double-digit year-over-year decline, and I looked back many years. They have been other cycles where we've had multiple quarters of negative but not that many times, we have seen a double-digit kind of 4, 5 quarters. I just wanted your perspective on what you folks are seeing this cycle versus -- and I know no cycle is the same, but just kind of give -- just help investors think about how to think about that double-digit 4 quarters and could be potentially longer year-over-year decline?

是的。快一點，戴夫。只看第四季的年比，兩位數的年減，回望很多年。在其他週期中，我們也經歷過多個季度的負成長，但次數並不多，我們已經看到了 4、5 個季度的兩位數成長。我只是想知道你們對這個週期的看法，我知道沒有一個週期是相同的，但只是一種給予，只是幫助投資者思考如何看待兩位數的 4 個季度，並且可能會同比下降可能會更長嗎？

Sure. Yes. And I think we all know as being students of studying the cycles over the years. They're all the same and they're all different at the same time and they're unique. The one thing that is unique, of course, with the cycle is how the markets have behaved differently. We've seen bifurcation, and really lined up very well with -- when markets recovered. So PE was the first to recover and was very strong early on. The other markets followed very shortly after that and Automotive was last. As you remember, many automotive manufacturers struggle to restart their factories and people weren't going to showrooms when were are in the midst of the pandemic.

當然。是的。我想我們都知道這些年來我們都是研究週期的學生。它們都是相同的，同時又各不相同，而且是獨一無二的。當然，週期的獨特之處在於市場表現的不同。當市場復甦時，我們已經看到了分歧，而且確實非常吻合。所以PE是第一個復甦的，而且早期表現非常強勁。不久後其他市場也緊跟其後，汽車市場排在最後。如您所知，許多汽車製造商都在努力重啟工廠，而在疫情期間人們也不會去展廳。

So really, as we've seen things begin to roll over, Personal Electronics was first. It was then followed by the other markets, and yet we still have automotive that's hanging in there. So I think that's the one thing that's unique and I think as we've learned and studied the cycles, our product portfolio has changed as well over time. But the best time to be preparing for the upturn is before it shows up. So that's what we've been busy doing and we think we're in a great position to support the next upturn and to continue to gain share.

事實上，正如我們所看到的，事情開始發生轉變，個人電子產品是第一位的。隨後是其他市場，但我們仍然有汽車市場。所以我認為這是獨一無二的一件事，我認為隨著我們對週期的了解和研究，我們的產品組合也隨著時間的推移而改變了。但為經濟復甦做好準備的最佳時機是在經濟復甦出現之前。這就是我們一直在忙著做的事情，我們認為我們處於有利地位來支持下一次經濟復甦並繼續獲得份額。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vivek Arya 與美國銀行證券公司的聯繫。

I wanted to go back to Automotive, just to make sure that I understood what you said. Do your comments imply that you're seeing a largely seasonal environment in Q4 with no changes in terms of orders to traditional or EV customers? And if that is the case, if I understood it correctly, isn't that surprising given the macro headwinds that sector is facing?

我想回到汽車領域，只是為了確保我理解你所說的話。您的評論是否意味著您在第四季度看到的主要是季節性環境，傳統或電動車客戶的訂單沒有變化？如果是這樣的話，如果我理解正確的話，考慮到該行業面臨的宏觀阻力，這難道不令人驚訝嗎？

Vivek, your question was on third quarter or on fourth quarter?

Vivek，你的問題是關於第三季還是第四季？

So what is being -- I think when you were asked before, you said that if there was anything abnormal, you would have mentioned it. So I assume that because you didn't mention it, that it is normal.

那麼什麼是存在──我想之前被問到的時候，你說如果有異常的話，你會提到的。所以我認為因為你沒有提到它，所以這是正常的。

Yes. So yes, what I said is that there was something that we needed to explain the outlook or unusual or however you want to describe it, we would do that. So I'm stopping at that point intentionally. And we'll finish up the quarter and report out what happens in the fourth quarter. Do you have a follow-up?

是的。所以，是的，我所說的是，我們需要一些東西來解釋前景或不尋常，或者無論你想如何描述它，我們都會這樣做。所以我故意在這一點上停下來。我們將完成本季並報告第四季發生的情況。你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. On depreciation, what is driving the revision? Because your CapEx doesn't seem to be changing. And then kind of part B of that is, if I take that year-on-year delta, Rafael, I think it's about $400 million, $500 million or so incremental in '24. So at the current revenue run rate, that's a 2 to 3-point headwind to gross margin. I just wanted to make sure that I got those 2 points right.

是的。關於折舊，是什麼推動了修正？因為你的資本支出似乎沒有改變。然後，其中的 B 部分是，如果我考慮同比增量，拉斐爾，我認為 24 年的增量約為 4 億美元、5 億美元左右。因此，以目前的收入運行速度，毛利率將下降 2 到 3 個百分點。我只是想確保我正確地理解了這兩點。

Yes. So the -- for '24, I said $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, and that is down from what you probably heard before $2 billion. And for 2025, I said $2 billion to $2.5 billion, so that is down from $2.5 which we had said before. And the reason, as you pointed out, CapEx is not changing, so that's not the reason. It's just as time has said, we have more clarity on what to expect.

是的。因此，對於 24 年，我說的是 15 億至 18 億美元，這比您之前可能聽到的 20 億美元要低。對於 2025 年，我說的是 20 億至 25 億美元，比我們之前說的 2.5 美元有所下降。正如您所指出的，原因是資本支出沒有改變，所以這不是原因。正如時間所言，我們對未來的期望更加清晰。

So for example, depreciation on tools that doesn't start until the tool. It's not only received but installed and then qualified and therefore depreciation starts. So that doesn't happen immediately. But we have learned more as to how that process works with all the number of tools that we're receiving for the various factories, then we're providing an update on depreciation.

例如，工具的折舊直到工具出現後才開始。它不僅被接收，而且被安裝，然後合格，因此折舊開始。所以這不會立即發生。但我們已經更多地了解了該流程如何與我們為各個工廠收到的所有工具配合使用，然後我們將提供折舊的最新資訊。

And the gross margin headwind. Is that -- did I have the calculation, right? It's a 2- to 3-point headwind on gross margins?

以及毛利率的逆風。那是——我有計算過嗎？毛利率會下降 2 到 3 個百分點嗎？

Well, so we've given you the tools to calculate gross margin. So let me remind everybody what that is. First is revenue. So if you pick the revenue that you believe is going to happen for the next several years, and this works on a quarterly basis, but of course, in any quarter, there are a lot of puts and takes, but better to do it over longer horizons.

好吧，我們已經為您提供了計算毛利率的工具。所以讓我提醒大家那是什麼。首先是收入。因此，如果您選擇您認為未來幾年將會發生的收入，並且這是按季度計算的，但當然，在任何季度都有很多看跌期權和拿走期權，但最好重新做一遍更長遠的視野。

So you start with revenue, then you fall that through at 70% to 75% which, by the way, that is reflective of the great not only geopolitical dependable capacity that we're putting in place, but it is all that new fab capacity is 300 millimeters. So is the -- has a structural cost advantage. Not to mention that we're getting ITC and grant benefits as that is installed in the United States. So but -- so then you fall that through at 70% to 75% then you need to account for the added depreciation. So this year is probably going to be close to $1.2 billion. And then next year, I just give you $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion. So if you want to take a point between that, then you get your added depreciation for 2024.

所以你從收入開始，然後你會下降到 70% 到 75%，順便說一句，這不僅反映了我們正在部署的巨大的地緣政治可靠產能，而且還反映了所有新的晶圓廠產能是300毫米。具有結構性成本優勢也是如此。更不用說我們正在獲得美國國際貿易委員會 (ITC) 和贈款福利。但是——那麼你的折舊率會下降到 70% 到 75%，那麼你就需要考慮增加的折舊。因此今年可能會接近 12 億美元。然後明年，我只給你 15 億到 18 億美元。因此，如果您想在兩者之間取一點，那麼您將獲得 2024 年的附加折舊。

And then at a high level, that's it. But of course, in any given quarter, even in any given year, but especially in a given quarter, you have puts and takes. And one of them that we're seeing right now is the underutilization. But that right now is a headwind, but that can also be a tailwind when we're on the other side, and we're increasing loading and what does that -- what that does is that then it comes back the other way, right? So -- but that's more of a tactical comment that happens in some quarters. Hopefully, that answers your question.

然後在高層次上，就是這樣。但當然，在任何給定的季度，甚至在任何給定的年份，但尤其是在給定的季度，你都有看跌期權和賣出期權。我們現在看到的問題之一是利用率不足。但現在這是一種逆風，但當我們在另一邊時，這也可能是一種順風，我們正在增加負載，這會帶來什麼——然後它會以另一種方式返回，對吧？所以——但這更多的是在某些方面發生的戰術評論。希望這能回答你的問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自喬摩爾與摩根士丹利的對話。

I wonder if you could walk us through the calculation on the underutilization charge. I mean I think it seems like with the [opportunities] in inventory, you would see the cost impact of that in 6 months, but you're pulling it forward. Can you just talk about how you determine how much to pull forward?

我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹未充分利用費用的計算過程。我的意思是，我認為似乎有了庫存中的[機會]，您會在 6 個月內看到其對成本的影響，但您正在將其向前推進。您能談談您是如何確定向前推進多少的嗎？

Yes. Well, so it's an accounting process and it's essentially when you're below what's considered normal utilization that percent that you're below that -- and that is generally determined by wafer and the [fabri] wafer starts and out in the assembly test operation as your -- the number of units that you're producing and you -- you divide that by the capacity that you can get, the maximum capacity. You establish a normal, which is where you normally expect to be. That could be 85%, 90%, 95%, depending the situation. And whenever you're below that, then you take that percent that you're below and then you take those fixed costs and go straight to the P&L instead of going into inventory.

是的。嗯，所以這是一個會計流程，本質上是當您低於正常利用率時，您低於該百分比的百分比 - 這通常由晶圓和 [fabri] 晶圓在組裝測試操作中啟動和退出來確定作為你正在生產的單位數量，你將其除以你可以獲得的容量，即最大容量。你建立了一個常態，這就是你通常期望的狀態。根據具體情況，可能是 85%、90%、95%。每當你低於這個水準時，你就將低於的百分比計算出來，然後將這些固定成本直接計入損益表，而不是計入庫存。

So some of those costs that will come in fixed costs, some of them are depreciation, but it's not only depreciation. You have electricity, for example, is largely fixed. You used about the similar electricity whether a tool is running production or not as long as it's plugged in. So you take that into account. And then at the end of the day, you're not creating money when you do that, you just essentially put it on the balance sheet or the P&L. And in this case, it's going directly into the P&L as a linked quarter charge because that portion of the capacity is not producing.

因此，其中一些成本將包含在固定成本中，其中一些是折舊，但不僅僅是折舊。例如，你的電力基本上是固定的。無論工具是否正在運行生產，只要插入電源，您都會使用類似的電力。因此您要考慮這一點。最終，當你這樣做時，你並沒有創造金錢，你只是把它放在資產負債表或損益表上。在這種情況下，它會作為連結的季度費用直接計入損益表，因為這部分產能沒有生產。

Now one more comment, that gives us tremendous operating leverage on the other side of that, right? Because think about fixed costs on the way down, they heard of it. But on the way up, they're fixed, right? So from a cash standpoint, on the way up, you don't spend any more and then you get just tremendous cash fall-throughs on the revenue, particularly when it's 300-millimeter capacity at very low cost. Do you have a follow-on, Joe?

現在還有一條評論，這在另一方面給了我們巨大的營運槓桿，對吧？因為考慮到固定成本的下降，他們聽說了這一點。但在上升的過程中，它們就固定起來了，對吧？因此，從現金的角度來看，在成長的過程中，你不再花更多的錢，然後你就會在收入上得到巨大的現金損失，特別是當它的容量為300 毫米且成本非常低時。喬，你有後續嗎？

Separately, on the comm infrastructure business seemed quite soft, both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. I know that business isn't a focus for you guys, but can you talk about what's driving that weakness?

另外，通訊基礎設施業務無論是環比還是同比都顯得相當疲軟。我知道業務不是你們關注的焦點，但你們能談談是什麼導致了這種弱點嗎？

Yes and it -- last year was about 7% of our revenue, Joe. So we can find great opportunities in Comms Equipment. We continue to invest, we just don't think it has the secular growth that other markets like industrial, automotive fab. So we continue to make investments there. And as we've talked about that market over the years, it's one that just tends to be choppy. We believe that they're continuing to adjust their inventory levels as we work our way through this quarter. And as I mentioned earlier, it's down 50%. So that's a pretty significant drop. So yes, so again, long term, we think it's a great market and we're positioned well there, but it will have these types of moves overall.

是的，去年大約占我們收入的 7%，喬。因此，我們可以在通訊設備領域找到巨大的機會。我們繼續投資，只是認為它沒有工業、汽車晶圓廠等其他市場的長期成長。所以我們繼續在那裡進行投資。正如我們多年來談論的那樣，這個市場往往會波動不定。我們相信，在我們本季的努力過程中，他們將繼續調整庫存水準。正如我之前提到的，下降了 50%。所以這是一個相當顯著的下降。所以，是的，所以，從長遠來看，我們認為這是一個偉大的市場，我們在那裡定位良好，但總體上會有這些類型的變化。

Our next question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tore Svanberg 和 Stifel。

Yes. So you talked about operating in a weak environment. Could you also give us some color on bookings trends, maybe even the current run rate versus where you think consumption is? Just trying to understand, and this goes back to Ambrish's question about 4 consecutive quarters of double-digit declines. So yes, any color on bookings trends would be really helpful.

是的。所以你談到了在弱勢環境下運作。您能否給我們一些關於預訂趨勢的信息，甚至可能是當前的運行率與您認為的消費情況？只是想了解一下，這又回到了安布里什連續 4 個季度兩位數下降的問題。所以，是的，預訂趨勢中的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes. So as I mentioned, I think as part of another question on revenue order linearity, there was nothing unusual inside of that. Secondly, we obviously, we're describing the environment as being weak. And we don't have a system that tells us, are we shipping above or below demand. The strongest signal that we get is orders from customers. Now as we talked about earlier, comms, or a market like Personal Electronics was the first market to go into the downturn. We've had a couple of quarters of growth inside of that market. Now it's off of a very weak base. But we are seeing that as a trend. If you compare that to the industrial market, we had seen that, let's say, let's call it, about half of the sectors begin to weaken a couple of quarters ago, it was really this quarter that we saw that, that weakness is broadening.

是的。正如我所提到的，我認為作為關於收入順序線性的另一個問題的一部分，這裡面沒有什麼不尋常的。其次，顯然，我們將環境描述為薄弱。我們沒有一個系統可以告訴我們，我們的出貨量是高於還是低於需求。我們得到的最強烈的訊號是來自客戶的訂單。正如我們之前談到的，通訊或個人電子產品等市場是第一個陷入低迷的市場。我們在該市場內已經實現了幾個季度的成長。現在它的基礎非常薄弱。但我們認為這是一種趨勢。如果你將其與工業市場進行比較，我們可以看到，大約一半的行業在幾個季度前開始疲軟，我們實際上是在本季度看到這種疲軟正在擴大。

So customers, we believe, inside of markets like that inside of markets like comms equipment that we said they're adjusting their inventories as such. So again, that provides us the opportunity both strategically with building the capacity and more tactically, building, putting in place the inventory to be able to support the next upturn because it will certainly come. Do you have a follow-on?

因此，我們相信，像通訊設備這樣的市場內部的客戶，我們說他們正在調整庫存。因此，這再次為我們提供了戰略上建設能力的機會，也為我們提供了戰略上建設、落實庫存的機會，以便能夠支持下一次經濟復甦，因為它肯定會到來。你有後續嗎？

Follow-on for Rafael. Rafael, thank you for the depreciation numbers for the next few years. Do you also have an update us on the timing of the offsets to the depreciation, especially in relation to ITC and the CHIPS Act and anything new there?

拉斐爾的後續。拉斐爾，感謝您提供未來幾年的折舊數據。您是否還有關於折舊抵銷時間的最新信息，特別是與 ITC 和 CHIPS 法案以及其中的任何新內容相關的資訊？

So nothing new, frankly. The ITC is -- the expectation is similar, which is about a 20% to 25% credit on everything that is spent on CapEx in the U.S. for fabs. So what we said back in February is that that's going to be roughly $4 billion of the $20 billion or so that for CapEx, the $5 billion [turns] more. So roughly about $4 billion of that we're going to get back on ITC about 1-year offset.

坦白說，沒什麼新意。 ITC 的預期是相似的，即對美國晶圓廠資本支出的所有支出給予約 20% 至 25% 的抵免。所以我們在 2 月就說過，這將是 200 億美元左右的資本支出中的大約 40 億美元，而對於資本支出來說，50 億美元[轉]更多。因此，我們將向 ITC 返還約 40 億美元的約 1 年期補償。

Of that, we have already accrued $1.2 billion on the balance sheet. So you'll see that on our balance sheet on the long-term assets. A portion of that, we will get some time next year, probably by fourth quarter next year is when we expect to get that cash, so that's when the cash will start flowing in. As I mentioned in an earlier call, on an earlier question, we are actively applying for the grain.

其中，我們已經在資產負債表上累積了 12 億美元。所以你會在我們的長期資產資產負債表上看到這一點。其中一部分，我們明年會得到一些時間，可能到明年第四季度我們預計會得到這筆現金，所以那時現金將開始流入。正如我在之前的電話會議中就之前的問題提到的那樣，我們正在積極申請糧食。

So that's going to be in addition to the ITC. We're not counting on that. We don't have any numbers on that because you have to apply, you have to wait until the Department of Commerce makes that decision. But we are we're planning on receiving then the funding from the CHIPS Act grant was comprehended in our decision, and we firmly believe we are very well positioned to receive those funds, and we're a great candidate for that, and we believe there will be meaningful to manufacturing operations in Texas and Utah to support semiconductor growth and the objectives of the CHIPS program office.

所以這將不包括 ITC 的範圍。我們不指望這一點。我們沒有任何相關數字，因為你必須申請，你必須等到商務部做出決定。但我們正計劃接收來自 CHIPS 法案撥款的資金，這已包含在我們的決定中，我們堅信我們完全有能力接收這些資金，而且我們是一個很好的候選人，我們相信對於德克薩斯州和猶他州的製造業務來說，這對於支持半導體成長和CHIPS 計畫辦公室的目標具有重要意義。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自哈蘭·蘇爾 (Harlan Sur) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

China headquartered shipments or about 20% of to the first half of this year. This geography has experienced the most significant decline. I think it was down like 33%, 35% year-over-year in the first half of this year. Much of your China business is focused on industrial. Is this geography continuing to contribute to the weakness here in Q4? And what other geographies are you seeing that is contributing to this broadening out of sort of the weak industrial trends?

中國總部的出貨量今年上半年漲幅約為20%。這個地區經歷了最顯著的衰退。我認為今年上半年年減了33%、35%。您的中國業務大部分集中在工業領域。這種地理位置是否會繼續導致第四季的疲軟？您還發現哪些其他地區在疲軟的工業趨勢中推動了這種擴大？

Yes. So let me -- I'll speak to what we saw in the third quarter. And just in general, including industrial and China continue to remain weak. So I think if we're having this call a year ago or so, as China came out of COVID I think most of us would have expected there to be a more significant rebound, which just hasn't materialized.

是的。所以讓我——我將談談我們在第三季看到的情況。總體而言，包括工業和中國在內，持續保持疲軟。因此，我認為，如果我們在一年前左右召開這個電話會議，當中國走出新冠疫情之際，我想我們大多數人都會預期會出現更顯著的反彈，但這種反彈並沒有實現。

So yes, I think when you look at on a regional basis compared with the year ago, the only region that was up was Japan. So the other regions were down. And so again, just described that weakness as being very broad in nature. Do you have a follow-on, Harlan?

所以，是的，我認為當你從地區角度來看與一年前相比時，唯一上升的地區是日本。所以其他地區都下跌了。再次強調，這個弱點本質上是非常廣泛的。哈倫，你還有後續嗎？

Yes. So your embedded business continues to hold up relatively well, right? Trailing 12 months, it's up 8% year-over-year. You've talked about the positive strategy changes and embedded. Last quarter, you also cited some constraints. I assume that those constraints have fully normalized. So do you anticipate embedded continuing to hold up? Or do you anticipate this segment starting to weaken from here with some of the capacity constraints potentially easing?

是的。那麼您的嵌入式業務繼續保持相對較好的勢頭，對吧？過去 12 個月，年增 8%。您已經談到了積極的策略變化和嵌入。上個季度，您也提到了一些限制因素。我認為這些限制已經完全正常化。那麼您預計嵌入式會繼續保持下去嗎？或者您預期該細分市場從現在開始減弱，一些產能限制可能會放鬆？

Yes. As we talked about before, we had focused on changing the product strategy that we had inside of embedded. I'd say we're very pleased with the results that we have so far. Our first objective was to stabilize that business. And we continue to invest in it because we believe it has long-term growth potential and contribution to free cash flow. So we're very pleased with where we're going. I think more tactically, as we talked about last quarter, we saw that business does rely more heavily on foundry suppliers. We began to see those -- that capacity begin to free up for us.

是的。正如我們之前談到的，我們專注於改變嵌入式產品的策略。我想說，我們對迄今為止所取得的結果感到非常滿意。我們的首要目標是穩定這項業務。我們繼續投資它，因為我們相信它具有長期成長潛力並對自由現金流做出貢獻。所以我們對我們要去的地方非常滿意。我認為從戰術上講，正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們看到業務確實更加依賴代工供應商。我們開始看到那些能力開始為我們釋放。

And I think that it was different because we had capacity in place to service analog, our own capacity there overall. So Yes. So again, we think that business long term is going to be a great driver for us in the future. So thank you. And I think we've got time for one more caller.

我認為這是不同的，因為我們有能力為模擬提供服務，我們自己的整體能力。所以是的。因此，我們再次認為，長期業務將成為我們未來的巨大推動力。所以謝謝。我想我們還有時間再接聽一位來電者。

Next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 William Stein 與 Truist Securities 的對話。

Dave, can you remind us what's in the other segment besides calculators and perhaps why that end market was down so much more than the others? I know it's very seasonal from calculators, but there was a big drop year-over-year.

戴夫，您能否提醒我們，除了計算器之外，其他領域還有什麼？也許為什麼該終端市場比其他市場下降得更多？我從計算器上知道這是非常季節性的，但同比下降很大。

Yes. So besides calculators, we have our DLP or Digital Light Processor products that are in there. So those products are continuing to make their way through inventory correction overall. And calculators had a weaker back-to-school this season. Do you have a follow-on?

是的。因此，除了計算器之外，我們還有 DLP 或數位光處理器產品。因此，這些產品總體上正在繼續進行庫存調整。計算器本季返校季表現較弱。你有後續嗎？

Yes, perhaps something that hasn't come up in a while, but lead times, we were dealing with this golden screw issue for a while where there were quite a number of parts or quite a big part of the, let's say, all the available SKUs that had very extended lead times with revenue down as much as it is. I'm guessing that, that's mostly resolved and lead times are like sort of stock to 4 weeks for most things at this point. But if you could level set me on that, the degree to which there are still extended lead times, that would be really helpful.

是的，也許有些東西已經有一段時間沒有出現了，但是交貨時間，我們處理這個金螺絲問題有一段時間了，其中有相當多的零件或相當大的一部分，比方說，所有可用的SKU 的交貨時間非常長，收入也下降了很多。我猜想，這大部分已經解決了，目前大多數事情的交貨時間就像庫存到 4 週一樣。但如果您能讓我了解交貨時間仍然延長的程度，那將非常有幫助。

Sure. Yes. So and I may have mentioned this earlier, but almost all of our catalog products are available on ti.com for immediate shipment. And so as we approach our desired level of inventory, we've got a product that is positioned both in finished goods as well as in wafer form to be able to restock that. Of course, lead times, therefore, are what I described normal levels and continue to be consistent. And there's probably no time that we don't -- with so many different products and so many different customers. We'll have hotspots, but they are very few and far between and our ability to close those is very -- we've got flexible manufacturing as most of our production is fungible.

當然。是的。因此，我可能之前已經提到過這一點，但幾乎我們所有的目錄產品都可以在 ti.com 上立即發貨。因此，當我們接近所需的庫存水準時，我們就有了一種既可以製成成品也可以以晶圓形式定位的產品，以便能夠補充庫存。當然，因此，交貨時間是我所描述的正常水平，並且繼續保持一致。我們可能無時無刻不在處理如此多不同的產品和如此多不同的客戶。我們會有熱點，但它們很少而且相距很遠，我們關閉這些熱點的能力非常強——我們擁有靈活的製造，因為我們的大部分生產都是可替代的。

So with that, I'll ask Rafael to wrap up the call for us.

因此，我將請拉斐爾為我們結束通話。

All right. Let me wrap up by reiterating what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers and technology is the foundation of our company but ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is a long-term growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our 3 ambitions. We will act like owners who will own the company for decades, we will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing and we will be a company that we are personally proud to be part of and would want as our neighbor. When we are successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit.

好的。讓我重申我們之前說過的話作為結束。我們的核心是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎，但最終，我們的目標和衡量進展並為所有者創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。在我們努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三個目標。我們將像擁有公司數十年的所有者一樣行事，我們將在不斷變化的世界中適應並取得成功，我們將成為一家讓我們個人感到自豪並希望成為我們鄰居的公司。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和所有者都會受益。

Thank you, and have a good evening.

謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，此時您可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。