德州儀器 (TXN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Dave Pahl, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我是投資者關係主管戴夫·帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起的還有我們的首席財務官拉斐爾·利扎爾迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。對於錯過該發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。此次電話會議正在網絡上進行現場直播，您可以通過我們的網站進行訪問。此外，今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將通過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知，以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into second quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the third quarter of 2023.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將首先快速概述本季度。接下來，我將深入了解第二季度的收入結果，以及我們在終端市場方面看到的一些細節。最後，Rafael 將介紹 2023 年第三季度的財務業績和指導。

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter. Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $4.5 billion, an increase of 3% sequentially and a decrease of 13% year-over-year. Analog revenue declined 18%, Embedded Processing grew 9%, and our Other segment declined 10% from the year-ago quarter.

首先快速概述本季度。該季度收入約為 45 億美元，符合預期，環比增長 3%，同比下降 13%。與去年同期相比，模擬收入下降了 18%，嵌入式處理增長了 9%，其他部門則下降了 10%。

Now, I'll provide some insight into our second quarter revenue by market. During the quarter, we experienced continued weakness across all markets, except automotive. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance, as it is more informative at this time.

現在，我將按市場提供一些關於我們第二季度收入的見解。本季度，除汽車市場外，所有市場均持續疲軟。與上季度類似，我將重點關注連續性能，因為此時它提供了更多信息。

First, the industrial market was about flat. Next, the automotive market was up low single digits. Personal Electronics was up low single digits after several quarters of sequential declines. And next, Communications Equipment was down mid-teens. And finally, Enterprise Systems was down mid-single digits.

首先，工業市場基本持平。接下來，汽車市場小幅上漲。個人電子產品在經歷了幾個季度的連續下降後，出現了低個位數的增長。接下來，通信設備股的股價下跌了十多歲。最後，企業系統公司的股價下跌了個位數。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

拉斐爾現在將回顧盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝戴夫，大家下午好。

As Dave mentioned, second quarter revenue was $4.5 billion, down 13% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.9 billion, or 64% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue, increased capital expenditures and the transition of LFAB-related charges to cost of revenue. Gross profit margin decreased 540 basis points.

正如 Dave 提到的，第二季度收入為 45 億美元，比去年同期下降 13%。該季度毛利潤為 29 億美元，佔收入的 64%。與一年前相比，毛利潤下降的主要原因是收入減少、資本支出增加以及 LFAB 相關費用轉為收入成本。毛利率下降540個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $938 million, up 12% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.6 billion, or 19% of revenue. Operating profit was $2 billion in the quarter, or 44% of revenue, and was down 28% from the year-ago quarter. Net income in the second quarter was $1.7 billion, or $1.87 per share.

該季度運營支出為 9.38 億美元，同比增長 12%，基本符合預期。過去 12 個月的運營支出為 36 億美元，佔收入的 19%。該季度營業利潤為 20 億美元，佔收入的 44%，比去年同期下降 28%。第二季度淨利潤為 17 億美元，即每股 1.87 美元。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $1.4 billion in the quarter and $7.4 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.4 billion in the quarter and $4.2 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $3.2 billion. In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends and repurchased about $80 million of our own stock. In total, we have returned $6.5 billion in the past 12 months.

本季度運營現金流為 14 億美元，過去 12 個月運營現金流為 74 億美元。本季度資本支出為 14 億美元，過去 12 個月資本支出為 42 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 32 億美元。本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息，並回購了約 8000 萬美元的自有股票。過去 12 個月，我們總共返還了 65 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.6 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter. In the quarter, we repaid $500 million of debt and issued $1.6 billion of debt. Total debt outstanding was $11.3 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.5%. Inventory dollars were up $441 million from the prior quarter to $3.7 billion and days were 207, up 12 days sequentially. For the third quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.36 billion to $4.74 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.68 to $1.92. Lastly, we continue to expect our 2023 effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第二季度末現金和短期投資為 96 億美元。本季度，我們償還了 5 億美元的債務，並發行了 16 億美元的債務。未償還債務總額為 113 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.5%。庫存金額比上一季度增加 4.41 億美元，達到 37 億美元，天數為 207 天，比上一季度增加 12 天。我們預計 TI 第三季度營收將在 43.6 億美元至 47.4 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.68 美元至 1.92 美元之間。最後，我們繼續預計 2023 年有效稅率約為 13% 至 14%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels and diverse and long-lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的渠道覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。我們將繼續通過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續實現每股自由現金流的長期增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說到這裡，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible the opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up.

接線員，您現在可以打開提問線路。為了給盡可能多的人提供提問的機會，請限制自己提出一個問題。在我們回復後，我們將為您提供額外跟進的機會。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Vivek Arya 與美國銀行證券的線路。

I had a high-level question, which is, when I compare DI sales growth right down almost 13%, 14% in the near term, down double digit versus peers is significantly below. And when I look at your trailing 12-month free cash flow of sub-17%, if my model is right, that is the lowest since 2010. But at what point will TI say that something needs to change in the strategy to help close the gap on the growth side and to help free cash flow margins get back to the trend line? So I understand that, obviously, you're not optimizing the model for just 1 year. But now, we have seen just consistent decline in free cash flow per share, which is your preferred metric. So at what point should we start to see free cash flow get back to historical trends?

我有一個高層次的問題，那就是，當我比較 DI 銷售增長在短期內下降近 13%、14% 時，兩位數的下降幅度明顯低於同行。當我看到你們過去 12 個月的自由現金流低於 17% 時，如果我的模型正確的話，這是 2010 年以來的最低水平。但 TI 在什麼時候會說需要改變策略以幫助縮小增長方面的差距並幫助自由現金流利潤率回到趨勢線？所以我明白，顯然，你不會只優化模型一年。但現在，我們看到每股自由現金流持續下降，這是您首選的指標。那麼我們應該在什麼時候開始看到自由現金流回到歷史趨勢呢？

Yes. So thanks, Vivek. Let me start, and Dave, if you want to chime in. But big picture, a step back to what we told you during capital management, and the investments that we're making are long term in nature, as you alluded to in your question, and we are going to enable revenue growth for the company for the next 10 to 15 years. Okay? So that's how we're thinking about it. And that's why we're making these investments on CapEx, in particular, about $5 billion per year for the next 4 years. And we are committed to those investments. We're excited to making those investments regardless of the short-term fluctuations of revenue. And of course, lower revenue means lower operating cash, which now, with the CapEx -- that's what you're seeing on the free cash flow, it's not unexpected.

是的。謝謝，維維克。讓我開始，戴夫，如果你想插話的話。但從大局來看，回顧我們在資本管理期間告訴你的內容，我們正在進行的投資本質上是長期的，正如你在問題中提到的，我們將在未來 10 到 15 年實現公司收入增長。好的？這就是我們的想法。這就是為什麼我們要在資本支出上進行這些投資，特別是在未來 4 年內每年投資約 50 億美元。我們致力於這些投資。無論收入的短期波動如何，我們都很高興進行這些投資。當然，較低的收入意味著較低的運營現金，現在，加上資本支出——這就是你在自由現金流上看到的情況，這並不意外。

Yes. And maybe I'll just add that, Vivek, as you know and have followed us for some time, one of our competitive advantages is manufacturing and technology. So these CapEx investments really are strengthening that advantage over time. It's fairly obvious that that -- those investments will allow us to produce products at significantly lower cost when -- to service demand. And controlling those assets in today's world is increasingly important. So customers can see the investments that we're making. Not only with that, the other systems that we've got to make it easier to do business with us, combined with the inventory we're putting in place to support their growth and customer reaction is extremely positive to that. So we believe these will be great investments for all of us long term.

是的。也許我會補充一點，Vivek，正如您所知並且關注我們一段時間了，我們的競爭優勢之一是製造和技術。因此，隨著時間的推移，這些資本支出投資確實正在增強這一優勢。很明顯，這些投資將使我們能夠以顯著更低的成本生產產品，以滿足需求。在當今世界，控制這些資產變得越來越重要。這樣客戶就可以看到我們正在進行的投資。不僅如此，我們還擁有其他系統，使與我們開展業務變得更加容易，再加上我們為支持他們的增長而建立的庫存，客戶對此的反應非常積極。因此，我們相信，從長遠來看，這些將是我們所有人的巨大投資。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes. I guess maybe, to say -- ask the same question but in a different way, right? And with respect -- I mean, TI had the same strategy 2 or 3 years ago also, but we saw sales grow worse than peers last year. And sales are again growing worse than peers this year. So it's not a 1 quarter or 2 quarter phenomena. Sales have been undergrowing your peer group for almost 2 years now. And CapEx is growing while sales are declining. So that's why I'm questioning whether the strategy is still right, whether the results are actually justifying the strategy?

是的。我想也許是說——以不同的方式問同樣的問題，對吧？恕我直言，我的意思是，TI 在兩三年前也採取了相同的策略，但我們去年的銷售額增長低於同行。今年的銷售增長再次低於同行。所以這不是一個季度或兩個季度的現象。近兩年來，您的同行群體的銷售額一直在增長。資本支出在增長，而銷售額卻在下降。所以這就是為什麼我質疑這個策略是否仍然正確，結果是否真的證明了這個策略的合理性？

Yes, I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add. Again, we've talked about is share doesn't move quickly inside of our markets. I think that depending on the period you're comparing to, oftentimes, the market exposure can explain a good portion of it. There's other factors, like how much distribution is someone using. As you know, we've transitioned from mostly using distribution to mostly having revenue come direct. So there was inventory that needed to be burned out of the channel as we made that transition.

是的，我先開始，拉斐爾，如果你想補充的話。我們再次討論過，市場內部的份額變化並不快。我認為，根據您所比較的時期，市場風險通常可以解釋其中的很大一部分。還有其他因素，例如某人使用了多少分佈。如您所知，我們已經從主要使用分銷轉變為主要直接收入。因此，在我們進行轉型時，需要從渠道中消耗掉一些庫存。

So there's multiple factors. I think going forward, our confidence in being able to continue to gain share is extremely high. Customer reaction to the capacity that they know they need to have, wanting to know that they've got capacity runway, not from someone's manufacturing supplier, but directly from someone that makes their products, is -- really resonates with customers.

所以有多種因素。我認為展望未來，我們對能夠繼續獲得份額的信心非常高。客戶對他們知道自己需要擁有的產能的反應，想知道他們擁有產能跑道，不是來自某人的製造供應商，而是直接來自製造他們的產品的人，這確實引起了客戶的共鳴。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的對話。

My first one is on your Q3 guidance. You're guiding revenue up 1% sequentially. Dave, you called out automotive as the one end market that continues to be healthy. But anything to point out or any standouts as you think about the sequential trajectory from Q2 to Q3? Or is it a continuation of what you saw in Q2?

我的第一個是關於第三季度的指導。您預計收入將環比增長 1%。戴夫，您稱汽車為持續健康發展的終端市場。但是，當您考慮從第二季度到第三季度的連續軌跡時，有什麼需要指出或有什麼突出的地方嗎？還是您在第二季度看到的情況的延續？

Yes. I'll just point out that this last quarter, we saw weakness across the board in our markets with the exception of automotive, like you've called out. And just to point out that that continued asynchronous behavior, we had PE weaken back in second quarter a year ago. And the other markets followed, but obviously, the exception of that with automotive continued to be strong. And it's up over 20% year-on-year. So definitely very strong growth there. And as we look into third quarter, we're not expecting to see any significant change in our end markets compared to this last quarter.

是的。我只想指出，正如您所指出的那樣，上個季度，除汽車市場外，我們的市場全面疲軟。只是要指出，這種持續的異步行為，我們在一年前的第二季度就看到了 PE 的疲軟。其他市場緊隨其後，但顯然，汽車市場除外，繼續保持強勁。而且同比增長超過20%。所以那裡的增長肯定非常強勁。當我們展望第三季度時，我們預計終端市場與上季度相比不會出現任何重大變化。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

I do. So inventory on your balance sheet was up, I think, 13% sequentially. Days grew to 207. I know on your capital management call, you revised up the upper range of your target to more than 200. I also appreciate, Dave, the transition from disti to direct. But at what point do you think you need to cut production or cut utilization rates and start to manage down inventory? Are you still comfortable with where things are today?

我願意。因此，我認為資產負債表上的庫存環比增加了 13%。天數增加到了 207 天。我知道在您的資本管理電話會議上，您將目標上限修改為 200 天以上。戴夫，我也很欣賞從分銷到直接的轉變。但您認為什麼時候需要削減產量或降低利用率並開始管理庫存？您對今天的情況還滿意嗎？

Yes. No, thanks for the question, Toshiya. Yes, we are comfortable where we are. As a reminder, our objective for inventory is to maintain high levels of customer service and minimize obsolescence. I would point you to Slide 13 at our capital management call. That shows the semiconductor cycle over many years, over about 30-some years in what that informs us on what could happen in the future. And we're planning for the long-term growth through those cycles, not in any one quarter or even any one year. And of course, inventory levels always depend on demand expectations. And for the time being in the near term, they will likely have an upward bias.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問，Toshiya。是的，我們現在所處的位置很舒服。提醒一下，我們的庫存目標是保持高水平的客戶服務並最大限度地減少過時。我會向您推薦我們資本管理電話會議上的幻燈片 13。這顯示了多年、大約 30 多年的半導體週期，這告訴我們未來可能會發生什麼。我們正在規劃這些週期中的長期增長，而不是任何一個季度甚至任何一年。當然，庫存水平始終取決於需求預期。就目前而言，短期內它們可能會出現上行傾向。

Okay. So just to clarify, you're still running your fabs full at this point?

好的。澄清一下，目前你們的工廠仍在滿負荷運轉嗎？

Utilization this last quarter was lower than the previous quarter. That was largely a function of adding capacity.

上一季度的利用率低於上一季度。這很大程度上是增加容量的結果。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西·拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon)。

For my first one, just to follow up on that. You said inventories have an upward bias. So that means inventory like dollars and days you expect to increase again in Q3?

對於我的第一個，只是為了跟進。你說庫存有向上的傾向。這意味著您預計第三季度的庫存（例如美元和天數）會再次增加？

Well, the days depend on revenue, of course, but on the dollars -- has an upward bias. So there's very likely that the dollars will go up in Q3. Of course -- and you know this is right, but inventory is on the balance sheet at one point in time, but it's meant to support the future growth, and 200 days is about couple of quarters' worth of inventory in various stages of finish.

好吧，當然，日子取決於收入，但取決於美元——有向上的傾向。因此，第三季度美元很可能會上漲。當然，你知道這是對的，但庫存在某個時間點就出現在資產負債表上，但它是為了支持未來的增長，而 200 天大約相當於幾個季度在不同完成階段的庫存價值。

How many quarters are they going to keep going up for, though?

不過，他們還能持續幾個季度的上漲呢？

That's going to depend on revenue expectations, beyond now and then, the decisions that we make on the factory, and we forecast one quarter at a time. Just know that our thinking, it's long term in nature, as I talked -- as I mentioned to Toshiya in the previous call. And we're managing through the cycles, right? So not what's going to happen in one quarter or even 2 quarters, what we think is going to happen over longer than that on inventory. On capacity, we're adding capacity that's going to support us for many years, right? So it's going to give us plenty of headroom.

這將取決於收入預期，除了時不時地，我們對工廠做出的決定，我們一次預測一個季度。只要知道我們的想法本質上是長期的，正如我在之前的電話中向 Toshiya 提到的那樣。我們正在管理整個週期，對吧？因此，不是一個季度甚至兩個季度內會發生的事情，而是我們認為會在比庫存更長的時間內發生的事情。在容量方面，我們正在增加的容量將支持我們很多年，對嗎？因此，這將為我們提供充足的空間。

One more comment on inventory, just for those who maybe have not listened to us very often, but you know there's -- our inventory has very low obsolescence. The bulk of it is for catalog parts that -- the inventory itself last year is, in fact, up to 10 years on the shelf, but the product life cycles are very long with our customers, and we have, in many cases, tens or dozens of customers that buy the product. So the risk of obsolescence is very low in the dollar.

關於庫存的另一條評論，僅針對那些可能沒有經常聽我們講話的人，但您知道，我們的庫存過時率非常低。其中大部分是目錄零件——去年的庫存本身實際上可以在貨架上保存長達 10 年，但我們的客戶的產品生命週期很長，而且在很多情況下，我們有數十個或數十個客戶購買該產品。因此，美元過時的風險非常低。

Okay. Thank you, Stacy. We'll go to the next caller, please.

好的。謝謝你，史黛西。請讓我們接聽下一個來電者。

Oh. Was that my...

哦。那是我的...

That was your second -- Yes, thank you.

那是你的第二次——是的，謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的克里斯·丹利 (Chris Danely)。

Thanks, guys. And by the way, thanks for having a nice, concise conference call. It's unique in semis and much appreciated. My first question is just on lead times and shortages. Given all the capacity you're adding in the inventory, can we pretty much say that TI lead times are the lowest, at least among peers and the shortages are all gone? Are we pretty much, I guess, "back to normal?" And I mean, are there any metrics that you could share with us sort of now versus 3 or 6 months ago on the improvement there?

多謝你們。順便說一下，感謝您召開了一次精彩、簡潔的電話會議。它在半決賽中是獨一無二的，備受讚賞。我的第一個問題是關於交貨時間和短缺。考慮到您在庫存中添加的所有產能，我們是否可以說 TI 的交貨時間是最短的，至少在同行中是最短的，並且短缺問題已經全部消失？我想，我們已經“恢復正常了嗎”？我的意思是，您是否可以與我們分享一下現在與 3 或 6 個月前相比的改進情況？

Yes. Chris, what I would -- how I would frame it today is we've got -- the vast majority of our products are available on ti.com for immediate shipment. And as Rafael talked about, whenever the upturn does come, we'll have product available as well as capacity behind that to be able to support that demand.

是的。克里斯，我想說的是——我今天的框架是我們已經擁有的——我們的絕大多數產品都可以在 ti.com 上立即發貨。正如拉斐爾所說，每當經濟好轉時，我們都會有可用的產品以及背後的產能來支持這種需求。

Now if a customer wants to give us an order at lead time, those lead times over the cycle haven't changed that much. So they can place that order or if they need inside of that, they can -- for the vast majority of the products, have it available. Now we do have hotspots. We'll probably always have a place where we have a demand and supply imbalance. But those hotspots are closing and closing pretty quickly. As Rafael talked about, we're bringing on capacity every quarter. So that just gives us more flexibility to be able to meet the customer demand. But it does vary beyond what we've got on hand.

現在，如果客戶想在交貨時間內向我們下訂單，那麼週期內的交貨時間並沒有太大變化。因此，他們可以下訂單，或者如果他們需要其中的內容，他們可以為絕大多數產品提供可用的訂單。現在我們確實有了熱點。我們可能總會有一個地方出現供需不平衡的情況。但這些熱點正在迅速關閉。正如拉斐爾所說，我們每個季度都會增加產能。這樣我們就可以更加靈活地滿足客戶的需求。但它確實超出了我們現有的範圍。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes, earlier in the call and in a bunch of the calls, you keep talking about your advantages in manufacturing and given you have more internal manufacturing and more 300-millimeter than the competitors. Are you -- I guess, are you guys getting a little more aggressive on price? Are you able to price below the competition? Is this something that has happened recently? Some of your competitors have, I guess, "complained" about TI getting more aggressive in price recently. I just wanted your response to that.

是的，在電話的早期和一系列電話中，您一直在談論您在製造方面的優勢，並且考慮到您比競爭對手擁有更多的內部製造和更多的 300 毫米。我想，你們在價格上是否變得更加激進一些？您能以低於競爭對手的價格定價嗎？這是最近發生的事情嗎？我猜想，你們的一些競爭對手“抱怨”TI 最近在價格上變得更加激進。我只是想得到你的回應。

Yes. Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. Our pricing strategy hasn't changed. And of course, we regularly monitor with the pricing of all of our products, and we may maintain the goal to continue to gain share over time. But there's nothing unusual going on with pricing today. And I'll point out the fact that when we opened up our Fab 1, we had 75% of the tools needed inside of that factory, and there was handwringing back then if you remember that we were going to do something unnatural. And what we talked about was putting in place that capacity to support growth, and that's what it did.

是的。是的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯。我們的定價策略沒有改變。當然，我們會定期監控所有產品的定價，並且我們可能會保持隨著時間的推移繼續獲得份額的目標。但今天的定價並沒有什麼不尋常的地方。我要指出的事實是，當我們開設 Fab 1 時，我們擁有該工廠內部所需的 75% 的工具，如果您還記得我們要做一些不自然的事情，那麼當時就會感到手足無措。我們談論的是建立支持增長的能力，這就是它所做的。

So thank you, Chris, we'll go to the next caller.

謝謝你，克里斯，我們會接聽下一個來電者。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自哈蘭·蘇爾 (Harlan Sur) 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

Yes. Up until the March quarter, the team had seen 3 consecutive quarters of increasing cancellations and pushouts, sort of the typical sort of customer behavior in a weak demand environment. Did the team continue to see cancellations and pushout activity expanding in the June quarter? Or have you guys -- or have you or are you seeing signs of stabilization?

是的。直到三月份的季度，該團隊已經連續三個季度看到取消和推遲的情況不斷增加，這是需求疲軟環境下典型的客戶行為。團隊在六月季度是否繼續看到取消和推出活動擴大？或者你們——或者你們已經或正在看到穩定的跡象嗎？

Yes. The way I describe that is the cancellations remain at elevated levels. And we believe that customers are continuing to work down inventories to get that more in line with their demand.

是的。我的描述是取消航班仍然保持在較高水平。我們相信客戶將繼續減少庫存，以使其更符合他們的需求。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes. Thanks for that. So your Embedded business continues to hold up very well, right? I think trailing 12 months, it's up 9% year-over-year versus your Analog business, which is down 7%. I know part of it is due to the strategy, the refocusing of the MCU businesses over the past few years. More general purpose, catalog-focused, right?

是的。感謝那。那麼您的嵌入式業務繼續保持良好勢頭，對嗎？我認為過去 12 個月，它同比增長了 9%，而模擬業務則下降了 7%。我知道部分原因在於戰略，即過去幾年 MCU 業務的重新聚焦。更通用，以目錄為中心，對嗎？

But it also seems to be reflecting this broader trend in the industry, if I look at the SIA data, if I look at you and your other MCU competitors, where -- industry MCU trends year-over-year are holding up much, much better versus the analog. I just wanted to get the team's perspective on why the large delta in performance Analog versus Embedded?

但它似乎也反映了行業中更廣泛的趨勢，如果我看看 SIA 數據，如果我看看你和你的其他 MCU 競爭對手，行業 MCU 趨勢逐年保持得比模擬要好得多。我只是想了解團隊對為什麼模擬與嵌入式性能差異巨大的看法？

Yes. Yes, thanks for that question, Harlan, and how you framed it. I would say at a top level, the changes that we have made to our product portfolio, the design in that and the customer response to those products as we've put them out in the marketplace continues to be very strong. Our confidence that that business will grow and gain market share over the long term is extremely high based on that. And as we've talked about before, we're putting in place to be able to support that growth for Embedded internally, and that is a position that we haven't been in quite some time.

是的。是的，哈倫，謝謝你提出這個問題，以及你是如何提出這個問題的。我想說的是，在最高層面上，我們對產品組合、設計以及我們將這些產品投放到市場時客戶的反應仍然非常強烈。基於此，我們對該業務將長期增長並獲得市場份額充滿信心。正如我們之前談到的，我們正在採取適當措施，以便能夠支持嵌入式內部的增長，而這是我們相當長一段時間沒有達到的位置。

Near term, I would say, besides things stabilizing, we've experienced greater supply constraints over the last 2 years as Embedded has previously had to rely on foundries to supply that demand. And so those constraints are alleviating. And I think that that's just something that you see across the industry.

我想說，短期來看，除了情況趨於穩定之外，過去兩年我們還經歷了更大的供應限制，因為嵌入式以前不得不依賴代工廠來滿足需求。因此，這些限制正在緩解。我認為這只是整個行業中常見的情況。

So thank you, Harlan. And we'll go to the next caller.

謝謝你，哈倫。我們將接聽下一個來電者。

Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自布萊恩柯蒂斯與巴克萊銀行的聯繫。

I just wanted to go back to the decision. I mean, I understand the inventory is not going to be obsolete, but it's eventually going to kind of steal from your future ability to scale gross margins. So I mean, at the current run rate, you're kind of building at like a $23 billion run rate, and it's going to only increase next year. So what's the harm in pulling it back a bit? I'm just trying to understand an interim here, just pulling back utilizations and not building so much inventory.

我只是想回到這個決定。我的意思是，我知道庫存不會過時，但它最終會削弱你未來擴大毛利率的能力。所以我的意思是，按照目前的運行速度，你的建設速度大約是 230 億美元，而且明年只會增加。那麼把它拉回來一點有什麼壞處呢？我只是想了解一個過渡時期，只是降低利用率，而不是建立太多庫存。

In the big scheme of things, our goal here is to support revenue growth. It's not, frankly, to optimize short-term fluctuations in gross margins. Those are not irrelevant, of course, but it's just the focus is on supporting revenue growth in the short term, midterm and long term. And inventory supports short-term to midterm fluctuations, right, that we can mitigate. We're having plenty of inventory. And the incremental cost of inventory is really low. As we talked about, on the obsolescence side, also on the variable cost nature of what goes into inventory. So it's just sort of just things that we keep in mind when -- in trying to make those decisions.

從長遠來看，我們的目標是支持收入增長。坦率地說，這並不是為了優化毛利率的短期波動。當然，這些並不是無關緊要的，但重點是支持短期、中期和長期的收入增長。庫存支持短期到中期的波動，對吧，我們可以緩解這種波動。我們有充足的庫存。而且庫存增量成本確實很低。正如我們所討論的，在過時方面，還有庫存的可變成本性質。因此，這只是我們在嘗試做出這些決定時要牢記的一些事情。

Yes. I just wanted to ask on gross margins. I mean, I know you don't give perfect color, but it seems like it's down at least 150 basis points sequentially. Maybe consumers are mixed. But I'm just kind of curious, is it just depreciation layering in? Or is there any other puts and takes on gross margin?

是的。我只是想問一下毛利率。我的意思是，我知道你沒有給出完美的顏色，但看起來它連續下降了至少 150 個基點。也許消費者的心情是褒貶不一的。但我只是有點好奇，這只是貶值嗎？或者還有其他影響毛利率的看跌期權和看跌期權嗎？

So I assume you're talking about third quarter? So yes, our guidance, and as you pointed out, we only give topline and EPS. But our guidance is the best estimate that we have in our gross margins -- or I'm sorry, that guidance embeds -- the revenue is flat in that particular case, and it embeds the result in depreciation and other related costs from added capacity over time.

所以我猜你說的是第三季度？所以，是的，我們的指導，正如您所指出的，我們只提供營收和每股收益。但我們的指導是我們對毛利率的最佳估計——或者我很抱歉，該指導嵌入了——在這種特定情況下收入持平，並且它嵌入了隨著時間的推移增加容量而產生的折舊和其他相關成本的結果。

On a year-on-year basis, I know you asked sequentially, but just a reminder, on a year-on-year basis, keep in mind that last year, we had the Lehi acquisition fab cost in restructuring, and now it is in COR, in cost of revenue as of December of last year when you move.

在同比基礎上，我知道你按順序問過，但只是提醒一下，在同比基礎上，請記住，去年，我們在重組中考慮了 Lehi 收購晶圓廠的成本，現在它是在 COR 中，即截至去年 12 月你搬家時的收入成本。

Yes. So yes, so year-on-year, the change in revenue, the increase in -- or moving of the cost from the restructuring into -- most of that into cost of revenue. And as well as depreciation.

是的。所以，是的，與去年同期相比，收入的變化、成本的增加——或者說重組成本的增加——大部分都轉化為收入成本。還有折舊。

So thank you, Blayne.

所以謝謝你，布萊恩。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Joshua Buchalter 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

I guess I wanted to follow up on the previous one and ask about -- we understand that the depreciation flow through, that it is what it is. But can you maybe talk through some of the near- to medium-term milestones when the 300-millimeter increased output, could start to benefit gross margin and sort of help offset the depreciation headwinds?

我想我想跟進前一個問題並詢問——我們知道折舊會流過，事實就是如此。但您能否談談一些近期到中期的里程碑，即產量增加 300 毫米可能會開始提高毛利率，並在某種程度上幫助抵消貶值的不利因素？

Yes. Just -- what I would tell you is depreciation, the way we depreciate equipment is over 5 years. Buildings is much longer, usually they average about 30 years or so. But consider that that equipment lasts a lot longer than 5 years, right? We have factories today that are running on 50 years-plus. And some of that has upgraded equipment. But broadly speaking, that equipment lasts for decades, not the 5 years where we depreciate it. So it's probably an unfair comparison to try to put the 300 benefit next to the depreciation and expect an offset in the short term.

是的。只是——我要告訴你的是折舊，我們對設備進行折舊的方式是超過 5 年。建築物要長得多，通常平均約 30 年左右。但考慮到該設備的使用壽命比 5 年長得多，對嗎？今天，我們的工廠已經運行了 50 多年。其中一些已經升級了設備。但一般來說，這些設備可以使用幾十年，而不是我們折舊的五年。因此，嘗試將 300 收益與折舊放在一起並期望在短期內得到抵消可能是不公平的比較。

I would suggest you think of it from a cash standpoint. We're investing that CapEx. It's cash. Forget about the depreciation, is -- CapEx is what we're investing. That's going to enable growth by adding that internal capacity, which, as Dave alluded to earlier, that is geopolitically dependable capacity. We're putting as many as 4 fabs in Sherman, 2 in Richardson, 2 in Lehi in Utah. And then assembly test facilities in Asia, primarily Malaysia and Philippines, for example. So that's going to put us in a really great position to grow the topline for a long time. And then what happens there is that that yields a lot of operating cash for our company that then we can either redeploy or return to the owners of the company after those investments.

我建議你從現金的角度來考慮。我們正在投資該資本支出。是現金。忘記折舊吧——資本支出就是我們投資的東西。這將通過增加內部能力來實現增長，正如戴夫之前提到的，這是地緣政治上可靠的能力。我們將在謝爾曼設立多達 4 座晶圓廠，在理查森設立 2 座，在猶他州李海設立 2 座。然後在亞洲（主要是馬來西亞和菲律賓）組裝測試設施。因此，這將使我們處於一個非常有利的位置，可以在很長一段時間內增加收入。然後發生的事情是，這為我們公司帶來了大量的運營現金，然後我們可以在這些投資後重新部署或返還給公司所有者。

Do you have a follow-on, Josh?

你有後續嗎，喬什？

Yes, sure. I recognize the language is similar last quarter regarding the end market commentary. But did anything change? Any better or worse intra-quarter? And in particular, personal electronics grew, you've talked in the past about it sort of being a 4-quarter cycle. Is it safe to say that that's sort of bottom now?

是的，當然。我認識到上個季度關於終端市場評論的語言是相似的。但有什麼改變嗎？季度內有更好或更差的情況嗎？特別是個人電子產品的增長，您過去談到過它是一個 4 個季度的周期。可以肯定地說現在已經觸底了嗎？

Yes. Again, I think that overall, we had continued to see that asynchronous behavior as we started back a year ago. And so that has continued. PE, again, it started -- we started to see weakness in Q2, so we've completed now. It actually grew first to second. So we've got several quarters of decline. It was up slightly sequentially. And again, we're not expecting much change in our end markets as we look forward.

是的。我再次認為，總體而言，我們從一年前開始就繼續看到異步行為。這樣的情況一直持續著。 PE，再次開始——我們開始看到第二季度的疲軟，所以我們現在已經完成了。它實際上從第一名增長到第二名。所以我們已經經歷了幾個季度的下降。環比小幅上漲。同樣，我們預計終端市場不會發生太大變化。

So okay. Thank you. And let's go to our last caller, please.

那麼好吧。謝謝。請讓我們接聽最後一位來電者。

Our last caller comes from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個來電者來自沃爾夫研究公司的克里斯·卡索。

I guess just following up on the last few questions. Perhaps you could differentiate a little bit about where you think your customers are still burning through inventory as compared to end demand. And as you noted, the PE segment started to see weakness earlier. We heard from some others that it's no longer an inventory issue. It's more of a demand issue. Perhaps you could talk to that for some of your other end markets? And where we could see incremental weakness of customers still need to bring down inventory further.

我想只是跟進最後幾個問題。也許您可以稍微區分一下您認為客戶仍在消耗庫存的情況與最終需求的情況。正如您所指出的，私募股權板塊較早開始出現疲軟。我們從其他一些人那裡聽說，這不再是庫存問題。這更多的是一個需求問題。也許您可以談談您的其他一些終端市場？我們可以看到客戶的疲軟狀況不斷加劇，但仍然需要進一步降低庫存。

Sure. Yes, Chris, I think if you look across the end markets broadly, you could say that all of them showed weakness and reflective of customers reducing inventories with the exception of automotive. And even inside of that, of course, if you look at industrial, it's not -- all the sectors aren't identical, meaning you've had strength in aerospace, grid infrastructure, in other sectors like that. So -- and PE is the same way, not all of the sectors were as weak or as strong as others. So -- but broadly, you could say it was across each of those markets.

當然。是的，克里斯，我認為如果你廣泛地審視終端市場，你可以說所有這些市場都表現出疲軟，反映出客戶減少了庫存，但汽車除外。當然，即使在其中，如果你看看工業，也會發現情況並非如此——所有部門都不相同，這意味著你在航空航天、電網基礎設施和其他類似部門擁有實力。因此，私募股權行業也是如此，並非所有行業都與其他行業一樣弱或一樣強。所以，但從廣義上講，你可以說每個市場都是如此。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

I do. And maybe as a follow-on, I'll hit on the segment that has remained strong, auto. And when this downturn began, I believe your commentary was that auto was -- had remained stable then. You thought that eventually it would come to auto just because it always has in the past. So far, it hasn't. I think it surprised a lot of us, the resilience on that. Has your view changed about the resilience of the auto market? Do you still expect that that has to correct at some point? And if not, why do you think it's different?

我願意。也許作為後續內容，我會談到仍然強勁的細分市場——汽車。當經濟衰退開始時，我相信你的評論是汽車當時保持穩定。你認為它最終會出現在汽車領域，因為過去總是如此。到目前為止，還沒有。我認為這讓我們很多人感到驚訝，這種韌性。您對汽車市場彈性的看法有改變嗎？您是否仍然認為這種情況必須在某個時候得到糾正？如果不是，你認為為什麼會有所不同？

Yes. So it wouldn't surprise us if it corrected. I don't think anyone can declare certainty on those types of things in the future. But I think that customers will build inventory. I've got 37 years of experience in the industry now, and that's the way the markets have behaved in the past. So that's generally a good guide in the future, but I think you can't pound the table and make absolutes, but certainly wouldn't be surprised if that were the case.

是的。因此，如果它得到糾正，我們也不會感到驚訝。我認為未來沒有人能夠對此類事情做出確定性的聲明。但我認為客戶會建立庫存。我現在在這個行業已經有 37 年的經驗了，這就是過去市場的表現。因此，這通常是未來的一個很好的指南，但我認為你不能敲桌子並做出絕對的判斷，但如果是這樣的話，當然不會感到驚訝。

So with that, we'll hand it over to Rafael to wrap this up.

因此，我們將把它交給 Rafael 來完成。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Let me wrap up by emphasizing what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objectives, we will continue to pursue our 3 ambitions. We will act like owners who will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we are personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbor. When we are successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit.

最後，讓我強調我們之前所說的內容。我們的核心是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎。但最終，我們的目標和衡量進展並為所有者創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期增長。在我們努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三個目標。我們將像擁有公司數十年的所有者一樣行事。我們將在不斷變化的世界中適應並取得成功。我們將成為一家讓我們個人感到自豪並希望成為我們鄰居的公司。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和所有者都會受益。

Thank you, and have a good evening.

謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，大家可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。