德州儀器 (TXN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Texas Instruments second quarter 2023 earnings conference call. I'm Dave Pahl, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi.

歡迎參加德州儀器 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資人關係主管戴夫‧帕爾 (Dave Pahl)，與我一起出席活動的還有我們的財務長拉斐爾‧利扎迪 (Rafael Lizardi)。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. In addition, today's call is being recorded and will be available via replay on our website.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路直播，可透過我們的網站存取。此外，今天的電話會議正在錄音，可透過我們的網站重播。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings, for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的有關前瞻性聲明的通知，以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into second quarter revenue results, with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our end markets. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the third quarter of 2023.

今天，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將簡單回顧一下本季的情況。接下來，我將深入了解第二季的收入結果，並提供一些有關終端市場的詳細資訊。最後，拉斐爾將介紹 2023 年第三季的財務表現和預期。

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter:

首先簡單回顧一下本季：

Revenue in the quarter came in about as expected at $4.5 billion, an increase of 3% sequentially and a decrease of 13% year over year. Analog revenue declined 18%, Embedded Processing grew 9%, and our "Other" segment declined 10% from the year-ago quarter.

本季營收大致符合預期，為 45 億美元，季增 3%，年減 13%。模擬收入下降 18%，嵌入式處理成長 9%，而「其他」部門營收較去年同期下降 10%。

Now, I'll provide some insight into our second quarter revenue by market. During the quarter, we experienced continued weakness across all markets, except automotive. Similar to last quarter, I'll focus on sequential performance, as it is more informative at this time.

現在，我將按市場介紹我們第二季的收入。在本季度，除汽車市場外，所有市場均持續疲軟。與上一季類似，我將專注於連續表現，因為此時它更具參考價值。

First, the industrial market was about flat.

一是工業市場基本持平。

Next, the automotive market was up low-single digits.

其次，汽車市場出現了個位數低幅成長。

Personal electronics was up low-single digits, after several quarters of sequential declines.

個人電子產品銷售在連續幾季下滑之後，首次出現個位數成長。

And next, communications equipment was down mid-teens.

其次，通訊設備的運作效率下降到了十幾歲。

And finally, enterprise systems was down mid-single digits.

最後，企業系統下降了中等個位數。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的展望。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

As Dave mentioned, second quarter revenue was $4.5 billion, down 13% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter was $2.9 billion, or 64% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue, increased capital expenditures and the transition of LFAB-related charges to cost of revenue. Gross profit margin decreased 540 basis points.

正如戴夫所提到的，第二季的營收為 45 億美元，比去年同期下降了 13%。本季毛利為 29 億美元，佔營收的 64%。與去年同期相比，毛利下降主要是由於收入下降、資本支出增加以及 LFAB 相關費用轉入收入成本。毛利率下降540個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $938 million, up 12% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were $3.6 billion, or 19% of revenue.

本季營運費用為 9.38 億美元，較去年同期成長 12%，與預期大致相符。過去 12 個月，營業費用為 36 億美元，佔營收的 19%。

Operating profit was $2 billion in the quarter, or 44% of revenue, and was down 28% from the year-ago quarter.

本季營業利潤為 20 億美元，佔營收的 44%，較去年同期下降 28%。

Net income in the second quarter was $1.7 billion, or $1.87 per share.

第二季淨收入為 17 億美元，即每股 1.87 美元。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.4 billion in the quarter and $7.4 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Capital expenditures were $1.4 billion in the quarter and $4.2 billion over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $3.2 billion.

現在，讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，從現金產生開始。本季經營現金流為 14 億美元，過去 12 個月經營現金流為 74 億美元。本季的資本支出為 14 億美元，過去 12 個月的資本支出為 42 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 32 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends and repurchased about $80 million of our own stock. In total, we have returned $6.5 billion in the past 12 months.

本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息，並回購了約 8,000 萬美元的自有股票。總的來說，我們在過去 12 個月內返還了 65 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.6 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter. In the quarter we repaid $500 million of debt and issued $1.6 billion of debt. Total debt outstanding was $11.3 billion with a weighted average coupon of 3.5%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第二季末，現金和短期投資為 96 億美元。本季度，我們償還了 5 億美元的債務，並發行了 16 億美元的債務。未償還債務總額為 113 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 3.5%。

Inventory dollars were up $441 million from the prior quarter to $3.7 billion, and days were 207, up 12 days sequentially.

庫存金額較上一季增加 4.41 億美元，達到 37 億美元，庫存天數為 207 天，較上一季增加 12 天。

For the third quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.36 billion to $4.74 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.68 to $1.92.

對於第三季度，我們預計 TI 營收將在 43.6 億美元至 47.4 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.68 美元至 1.92 美元之間。

Lastly, we continue to expect our 2023 effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%.

最後，我們繼續預期 2023 年的有效稅率約為 13% 至 14%。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。我們持續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、通路覆蓋範圍以及多元化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置和關注最佳機會來加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續實現每股自由現金流的成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible the opportunity to ask your questions, please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up. Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以開通問答線路了。為了讓盡可能多的人有機會提出問題，請將問題限制在一個問題上。我們回覆後，會提供您進一步跟進的機會。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

(操作員指示)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

I had a high-level question, which is, when I compare TI sales growth right down almost 13%, 14% in the near term, down double digit, versus peers, it's significantly below. And when I look at your trailing 12-month free cash flow of sub-17%, if my model is right, that is the lowest since 2010. But at what point will TI say that something needs to change in the strategy to help close the gap on the growth side and to help free cash flow margins get back to the trend line? So I understand that, obviously, you're not optimizing the model for just one year. But now, we have seen just consistent decline in free cash flow per share, which is your preferred metric. So at what point should we start to see free cash flow get back to historical trends?

我有一個高層次的問題，那就是，當我將 TI 的銷售成長率與同業進行比較時，發現短期內下降了近 13%、14%，下降了兩位數，而且明顯低於同行。當我看到您過去 12 個月的自由現金流低於 17% 時，如果我的模型正確，這是自 2010 年以來的最低水平。所以我明白，顯然你不會只針對一年的時間來優化模型。但現在，我們看到每股自由現金流（這是您所偏好的指標）持續下降。那麼，什麼時候我們應該開始看到自由現金流回到歷史趨勢呢？

Yes. So thanks, Vivek. Let me start, and Dave, if you want to chime in. But big picture, a step back to what we told you during capital management, and the investments that we're making are long term in nature, as you alluded to in your question, and we are going to enable revenue growth for the company for the next 10 to 15 years, okay? So that's how we're thinking about it. And that's why we're making these investments on CapEx, in particular, about $5 billion per year for the next four years. And we are committed to those investments. We're excited to making those investments regardless of the short-term fluctuations of revenue. And of course, lower revenue means lower operating cash, which now, with the CapEx -- that's what you're seeing on the free cash flow, it's not unexpected.

是的。所以謝謝你，Vivek。讓我開始吧，戴夫，如果你想插話的話。這就是我們的想法。這就是我們在資本支出方面進行投資的原因，特別是未來四年每年約 50 億美元。我們致力於這些投資。無論短期收入如何波動，我們都很高興進行這些投資。當然，收入下降意味著營運現金減少，而現在，有了資本支出，這就是你在自由現金流中看到的，這並不令人意外。

Yes. And maybe I'll just add that, Vivek, as you know and have followed us for some time, one of our competitive advantages is manufacturing and technology. So these CapEx investments really are strengthening that advantage over time. It's fairly obvious that -- those investments will allow us to produce products at significantly lower cost when -- to service demand. And controlling those assets in today's world is increasingly important. So customers can see the investments that we're making. Not only with that, the other systems that we've got to make it easier to do business with us, combined with the inventory we're putting in place to support their growth, and customer reaction is extremely positive to that. So we believe these will be great investments for all of us long term.

是的。也許我只想補充一點，Vivek，正如你所知並且關注我們一段時間以來，我們的競爭優勢之一是製造和技術。因此，這些資本支出投資確實會隨著時間的推移而增強這一優勢。很明顯，這些投資將使我們能夠以顯著降低的成本生產產品，以滿足需求。在當今世界，控制這些資產變得越來越重要。因此客戶可以看到我們所做的投資。不僅如此，我們還擁有其他系統來使與我們開展業務變得更加容易，再加上我們為支持其成長而建立的庫存，客戶對此的反應非常積極。因此我們相信，從長遠來看，這對我們所有人來說都是巨大的投資。

Do you have a follow-on?

您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes. I guess maybe, to say -- ask the same question but in a different way, right? And with respect -- I mean, TI had the same strategy two or three years ago also, but we saw sales grow worse than peers last year. And sales are again growing worse than peers this year. So it's not a one quarter or two quarter phenomena. Sales have been undergrowing your peer group for almost two years now. And CapEx is growing while sales are declining. So that's why I'm questioning whether the strategy is still right, whether the results are actually justifying the strategy?

是的。我想也許可以說──以不同的方式提出同樣的問題，對嗎？就此而言——我的意思是，德州儀器 (TI) 兩三年前也採用了同樣的策略，但去年的銷售成長情況不如同行。今年的銷售成長再次低於同業。因此，這不是一個季度或兩個季度的現象。近兩年來，銷售額一直低於您的同行。資本支出正在成長，而銷售額卻在下降。所以我質疑這個策略是否仍然正確，結果是否真的證明了這個策略的合理性？

Yes, I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add. Again, we've talked about is share doesn't move quickly inside of our markets. I think that depending on the period you're comparing to, oftentimes, the market exposure can explain a good portion of it. There's other factors, like how much distribution is someone using. As you know, we've transitioned from mostly using distribution to mostly having revenue come direct. So there was inventory that needed to be burned out of the channel as we made that transition.

是的，我先開始，還有拉斐爾，如果你想加的話。再一次，我們討論的是，我們的市場內的股票變動並不迅速。我認為，根據你所比較的時期，很多時候市場風險可以解釋其中很大的一部分。還有其他因素，例如某人使用了多少分佈。如您所知，我們已經從主要使用分銷模式轉變為主要透過直接收入模式。因此，當我們進行這種轉變時，需要從渠道中清除一些庫存。

So there's multiple factors. I think going forward, our confidence in being able to continue to gain share is extremely high. Customer reaction to the capacity that they know they need to have, wanting to know that they've got capacity runway, not from someone's manufacturing supplier, but directly from someone that makes their products, is -- really resonates with customers.

因此，有多種因素。我認為，展望未來，我們對繼續獲得份額的信心非常高。客戶對他們所需要擁有的產能的反應，想知道他們是否擁有產能，不是從某人的製造供應商那裡，而是直接從製造其產品的人那裡，這確實引起了客戶的共鳴。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的Toshiya Hari。

My first one is on your Q3 guidance. You're guiding revenue up 1% sequentially. Dave, you called out automotive as the one end market that continues to be healthy. But anything to point out or any standouts as you think about the sequential trajectory from Q2 to Q3? Or is it a continuation of what you saw in Q2?

我的第一個問題是關於您的第三季指引。您預計收入將環比增長 1%。戴夫，您曾說汽車市場是唯一持續保持健康的終端市場。但是，當您考慮從 Q2 到 Q3 的連續軌跡時，有什麼需要指出或突出的嗎？或者這是您在第二季度看到的情況的延續？

Yes. I'll just point out that this last quarter, we saw weakness across the board in our markets with the exception of automotive, like you've called out. And just to point out that that continued asynchronous behavior, we had PE weaken back in second quarter a year ago, and the other markets followed, but obviously, the exception of that with automotive continued to be strong. And it's up over 20% year on year. So definitely very strong growth there. And as we look into third quarter, we're not expecting to see any significant change in our end markets compared to this last quarter.

是的。我只想指出，上個季度，我們發現除汽車行業外，其他市場都呈現疲軟態勢，正如您所說。需要指出的是，這種持續的異步行為，我們的 PE 在去年第二季就減弱了，其他市場也隨之減弱，但顯然，汽車行業除外，它繼續保持強勁。而且較去年同期成長超過20%。所以那裡的成長肯定非常強勁。展望第三季度，我們預期終端市場與上一季相比不會發生任何重大變化。

Do you have a follow-on?

您有後續訊息嗎？

I do. So inventory on your balance sheet was up, I think, 13% sequentially. Days grew to 207. I know on your capital management call, you revised up the upper range of your target to more than 200. I also appreciate, Dave, the transition from disti to direct. But at what point do you think you need to cut production or cut utilization rates and start to manage down inventory? Are you still comfortable with where things are today?

我願意。因此，我認為，資產負債表上的庫存較上季增加了 13%。天數增加到了 207。但是您認為什麼時候需要削減產量或降低利用率並開始減少庫存？您對目前的狀況還滿意嗎？

Yes. No, thanks for the question, Toshiya. Yes, we are comfortable where we are. As a reminder, our objective for inventory is to maintain high levels of customer service and minimize obsolescence. I would point you to Slide 13 at our capital management call. That shows the semiconductor cycle over many years, over about 30-some years in what -- that informs us on what could happen in the future. And we're planning for the long-term growth through those cycles, not in any one quarter or even any one year. And of course, inventory levels always depend on demand expectations. And for the time being in the near term, they will likely have an upward bias.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問，Toshiya。是的，我們對現狀感到滿意。提醒一下，我們的庫存目標是維持高水準的客戶服務並儘量減少過時產品。我想讓你看一下我們資本管理電話會議的第 13 張投影片。這顯示了多年來半導體的周期，大約 30 多年，這告訴我們未來可能會發生什麼。我們計劃透過這些週期實現長期成長，而不是某個季度甚至某一年。當然，庫存水準總是取決於需求預期。就短期而言，它們可能呈現上行趨勢。

Okay. So just to clarify, you're still running your fabs full at this point?

好的。所以需要澄清的是，你們現在仍在全力運作你們的晶圓廠嗎？

Utilization this last quarter was lower than the previous quarter. That was largely a function of adding capacity.

最新一個季度的利用率低於前一季。這很大程度上是增加容量的結果。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Stacy Rasgon。

For my first one, just to follow up on that. You said inventories have an upward bias. So that means inventory like dollars and days you expect to increase again in Q3?

對於我的第一個，只是為了跟進這一點。您說庫存有上升趨勢。那麼，這是否意味著您預計第三季庫存（如美元和天數）將再次增加？

Well, the days depend on revenue, of course, but on the dollars -- has an upward bias. So there's very likely that the dollars will go up in Q3. Of course -- and you know this, right, but inventory is on the balance sheet at one point in time, but it's meant to support the future growth, and 200 days is about couple of quarters' worth of inventory in various stages of finish.

當然，日子取決於收入，但取決於美元——有上升的趨勢。因此美元在第三季很有可能上漲。當然——您也知道這一點，但是庫存在某個時間點會出現在資產負債表上，但它是為了支持未來的增長，而 200 天大約相當於處於各個完成階段的幾個季度的庫存價值。

How many quarters are they going to keep going up for, though?

但是，這個數字還要持續上漲幾個季度呢？

That's going to depend on revenue expectations, beyond now and then, the decisions that we make on the factory, and we forecast one quarter at a time. Just know that our thinking, it's long term in nature, as I talked -- as I mentioned to Toshiya in the previous call. And we're managing through the cycles, right? So not what's going to happen in one quarter or even two quarters, what we think is going to happen over longer than that on inventory. On capacity, we're adding capacity that's going to support us for many years, right? So it's going to give us plenty of headroom.

這將取決於收入預期，除此之外，我們還將取決於我們對工廠的決定，以及我們每次預測一個季度的結果。只知道我們的想法是長期的，正如我在上次通話中向 Toshiya 提到的那樣。我們正在管理這些週期，對嗎？因此，我們認為庫存狀況的變化不會在一個季度甚至兩個季度內發生，而是在更長的時間內發生。就產能而言，我們正在增加可以支持我們很多年的產能，對嗎？因此這將為我們提供充足的空間。

One more comment on inventory just for those who maybe have not listened to us very often, but you know there's -- our inventory has very low obsolescence. The bulk of it is for catalog parts that -- the inventory itself lasts years, in fact, up to 10 years on the shelf, but the product life cycles are very long with our customers, and we have, in many cases, tens or dozens of customers that buy the product. So the risk of obsolescence is very low in the dollar.

對於那些可能不常聽我們說話的人來說，我再對庫存做一點評論，但你們知道——我們的庫存過時性很低。其中大部分是目錄零件——庫存本身可持續數年，實際上在貨架上長達10年，但我們的客戶的產品生命週期非常長，在許多情況下，我們有數十或數十個購買產品的客戶。因此美元過時的風險非常低。

Okay. Thank you, Stacy. We'll go to the next caller, please.

好的。謝謝你，史黛西。請我們接聽下一位來電。

Oh. Was that my...

哦。那是我的…

That was your second -- Yes, thank you.

這是你的第二個——是的，謝謝你。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Danely with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Danely。

Thanks, guys. And by the way, thanks for having a nice, concise conference call. It's unique in semis and much appreciated. My first question is just on lead times and shortages. Given all the capacity you're adding in the inventory, can we pretty much say that TI lead times are the lowest, at least among peers, and the shortages are all gone? Are we pretty much, I guess, "back to normal"? And I mean, are there any metrics that you could share with us sort of now versus three or six months ago on the improvement there?

謝謝大家。順便說一句，感謝您參加這次愉快、簡潔的電話會議。它在半決賽中是獨一無二的，並且非常受歡迎。我的第一個問題是關於交貨時間和短缺問題。考慮到您在庫存中增加的所有容量，我們是否可以說 TI 的交貨時間是最低的，至少在同行中是最低的，並且短缺問題已經全部消失？我想，我們是不是差不多「恢復正常」了？我的意思是，您能與我們分享一下現在與三月或六個月前相比有哪些改進指標嗎？

Yes. Chris, what I would -- how I would frame it today is we've got -- the vast majority of our products are available on TI.com for immediate shipment. And as Rafael talked about, whenever the upturn does come, we'll have product available as well as capacity behind that to be able to support that demand.

是的。克里斯，今天我想說的是，我們的絕大多數產品都可以在 TI.com 上立即出貨。正如拉斐爾所說，無論何時經濟好轉，我們都會有充足的產品和產能來滿足需求。

Now if a customer wants to give us an order at lead time, those lead times over the cycle haven't changed that much. So they can place that order, or if they need inside of that, they can -- for the vast majority of the products -- have it available. Now we do have hot spots. We'll probably always have a place where we have a demand and supply imbalance. But those hot spots are closing, and closing pretty quickly. As Rafael talked about, we're bringing on capacity every quarter. So that just gives us more flexibility to be able to meet the customer demand. But it does vary beyond what we've got on hand.

現在，如果客戶想在交貨時間內向我們下訂單，那麼整個週期內的交貨時間並沒有太大變化。因此他們可以下訂單，或者如果他們需要的話，對於絕大多數產品，他們可以準備好。現在我們確實有熱點。我們可能永遠都會存在供需失衡的情況。但這些熱點正在關閉，並且關閉得相當快。正如拉斐爾所說，我們每季都在增加產能。因此，這為我們提供了更大的靈活性來滿足客戶的需求。但它確實超出了我們手頭上現有範圍。

Do you have a follow-on?

您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes, earlier in the call and in a bunch of the calls, you keep talking about your advantages in manufacturing, and given you have more internal manufacturing and more 300-millimeter than the competitors. Are you -- I guess, are you guys getting a little more aggressive on price? Are you able to price below the competition? Is this something that has happened recently? Some of your competitors have, I guess, "complained" about TI getting more aggressive in price recently. I just wanted your response to that.

是的，在早些時候的電話會議以及一系列電話會議中，您一直在談論您在製造方面的優勢，並且您擁有比競爭對手更多的內部製造能力和更多的 300 毫米產能。我想，你們在價格方面是否變得更激進了？你能給出低於競爭對手的價格嗎？這是最近發生的事嗎？我想，你們的一些競爭對手可能已經「抱怨」 TI 最近的降價幅度越來越大。我只是想得到你的答覆。

Yes. Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. Our pricing strategy hasn't changed. And of course, we regularly monitor with the pricing of all of our products, and we may -- maintain the goal to continue to gain share over time. But there's nothing unusual going on with pricing today. And I'll point out the fact that when we opened up our RFAB 1, we had 75% of the tools needed inside of that factory, and there was hand-wringing back then, if you remember, that we were going to do something unnatural. And what we talked about was putting in place that capacity to support growth, and that's what it did.

是的。是的。謝謝你的提問，克里斯。我們的定價策略沒有改變。當然，我們會定期監控所有產品的定價，我們可能會保持隨著時間的推移不斷增加份額的目標。但今天的定價並沒有什麼異常。我要指出的是，當我們開設 RFAB 1 時，工廠內有 75% 所需的工具，如果您還記得的話，當時大家很擔心，因為我們要做一些非自然的事情。我們所談論的是如何建立支持成長的能力，而它也確實做到了。

So thank you, Chris, we'll go to the next caller.

所以謝謝你，克里斯，我們將接聽下一位來電。

Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Yes. Up until the March quarter, the team had seen three consecutive quarters of increasing cancellations and pushouts, sort of the typical sort of customer behavior in a weak demand environment. Did the team continue to see cancellations and pushout activity expanding in the June quarter? Or have you guys -- or have you or are you seeing signs of stabilization?

是的。截至 3 月季度，該團隊已連續三個季度看到取消和延遲的情況增加，這是需求疲軟環境下典型的客戶行為。團隊是否繼續看到 6 月季度的取消和延遲活動正在擴大？或者你們──或者你們看到了穩定的跡象嗎？

Yes. The way I describe that is the cancellations remain at elevated levels. And we believe that customers are continuing to work down inventories to get that more in line with their demand.

是的。我對此的描述是取消量仍然處於較高水平。我們相信客戶會繼續減少庫存以更好地滿足他們的需求。

Do you have a follow-on?

您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes. Thanks for that. So your Embedded business continues to hold up very well, right? I think trailing 12 months, it's up 9% year over year versus your Analog business, which is down 7%. I know part of it is due to the strategy, the refocusing of the MCU businesses over the past few years. More general purpose, catalog-focused, right? But it also seems to be reflecting this broader trend in the industry, if I look at the SIA data, if I look at you and your other MCU competitors, where -- industry MCU trends year over year are holding up much, much better versus the analog. I just wanted to get the team's perspective on why the large delta in performance Analog versus Embedded?

是的。謝謝。那麼你們的嵌入式業務繼續保持良好狀態，對嗎？我認為，在過去 12 個月中，它的同比增長率為 9%，而您的模擬業務則下降了 7%。我知道部分原因在於策略，以及過去幾年對 MCU 業務的重新關注。更通用、以目錄為中心，對嗎？但它似乎也反映了該行業的更廣泛趨勢，如果我查看 SIA 數據，如果我查看您和您的其他 MCU 競爭對手，您會發現行業 MCU 趨勢逐年比模擬趨勢保持得好得多。我只是想了解團隊對模擬和嵌入式效能差異如此之大的原因的看法？

Yes. Yes, thanks for that question, Harlan, and how you framed it. I would say at a top level, the changes that we have made to our product portfolio, the design in that and the customer response to those products as we've put them out in the marketplace continues to be very strong. Our confidence that that business will grow and gain market share over the long term is extremely high, based on that. And as we've talked about before, we're putting in place to be able to support that growth for Embedded internally, and that is a position that we haven't been in quite some time.

是的。是的，哈蘭，謝謝你的提問，以及你如何構思這個問題。我想說，從最高層面來說，我們對我們的產品組合、設計所做的改變以及我們在市場上推出的產品的客戶反應仍然非常強勁。基於此，我們非常有信心該業務將會長期成長並獲得市場份額。正如我們之前談到的，我們正在採取措施，從內部支持嵌入式業務的成長，這是我們很長一段時間以來從未有過的立場。

Near term, I would say, besides things stabilizing, we've experienced greater supply constraints over the last two years, as Embedded has previously had to rely on foundries to supply that demand. And so those constraints are alleviating. And I think that that's just something that you see across the industry.

短期內，我想說，除了情況穩定之外，過去兩年我們經歷了更大的供應限制，因為嵌入式以前必須依靠代工廠來滿足這種需求。因此這些限制正在減輕。我認為這只是整個產業中普遍存在的現象。

So thank you, Harlan. And we'll go to the next caller.

所以謝謝你，哈蘭。我們將接聽下一位來電。

Our next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩柯蒂斯。

I just wanted to go back to the decision. I mean, I understand the inventory is not going to be obsolete, but it's eventually going to kind of steal from your future ability to scale gross margins. So I mean, at the current run rate, you're kind of building at like a $23 billion run rate, and it's going to only increase next year. So what's the harm in pulling it back a bit? I'm just trying to understand in interim here, just pulling back utilizations and not building so much inventory.

我只是想重新回到那個決定。我的意思是，我明白庫存不會過時，但它最終會在某種程度上影響你未來擴大毛利率的能力。所以我的意思是，以目前的運作率，你的建造成本大約是 230 億美元，而且明年只會增加。那麼將其拉回一點有什麼壞處嗎？我只是想暫時了解一下，只是降低利用率，而不是建立那麼多庫存。

In the big scheme of things, our goal here is to support revenue growth. It's not, frankly, to optimize short-term fluctuations in gross margins. Those are not irrelevant, of course, but it's just the focus is on supporting revenue growth in the short term, midterm and long term. And inventory supports short-term to midterm fluctuations, right, that we can mitigate with having plenty of inventory. And the incremental cost of inventory is really low. As we talked about, on the obsolescence side, also on the variable cost nature of what goes into inventory. So it's just sort of just things that we keep in mind when -- in trying to make those decisions.

從整體來看，我們的目標是支持收入成長。坦白說，這並不是為了優化毛利率的短期波動。當然，這些並非無關緊要，但重點只是支持短期、中期和長期的收入成長。庫存支持短期到中期的波動，對吧，我們可以透過充足的庫存來緩解這種波動。而且庫存的增量成本確實很低。正如我們討論過的，從過時方面來說，也從進入庫存的物品的變動成本性質來說。所以，這只是我們在做這些決定時要牢記的事情。

Yes. I just wanted to ask on gross margins. I mean, I know you don't give perfect color, but it seems like it's down at least 150 basis points sequentially. Maybe consumers are mixed. But I'm just kind of curious, is it just depreciation layering in? Or is there any other puts and takes on gross margin?

是的。我只是想問毛利率。我的意思是，我知道你給出的顏色不是完美的，但看起來它至少連續下降了 150 個基點。也許消費者心裡五味雜陳。但我只是有點好奇，這只是折舊分層嗎？或是有其他影響毛利率的因素嗎？

So I assume you're talking about third quarter? So yes, our guidance, and as you pointed out, we only give top line and EPS. But our guidance is the best estimate that we have in our gross margins -- or I'm sorry, that guidance embeds -- the revenue is flat in that particular case, and it embeds the resulting depreciation and other related costs from added capacity over time.

所以我假設您談論的是第三季？所以是的，我們的指導，正如你所指出的，我們只提供頂線和每股收益。但是我們的指引是對我們的毛利率的最佳估計——或者對不起，這個指引包含——在特定情況下收入是持平的，並且它包含了隨著時間的推移增加產能而產生的折舊和其他相關成本。

On a year-on-year basis -- I know you asked sequentially, but just a reminder -- on a year-on-year basis, keep in mind that last year we had the Lehi acquisition fab cost in restructuring, and now it is in COR, in cost of revenue, as of December of last year is when it moved.

按年計算 - 我知道您是按順序問的，但只是提醒一下 - 按年計算，請記住，去年我們在重組中進行了 Lehi 收購晶圓廠的成本，現在它在 COR 中，在收入成本中，截至去年 12 月是它移動的時候。

Yes. So yes, so year on year, the change in revenue, the increase in -- or moving of the cost from restructuring into -- most of that into cost of revenue. And as well as depreciation.

是的。是的，與去年同期相比，收入發生了變化，成本從重組中增加或轉移到收入成本中，其中大部分轉化為收入成本。還有折舊。

So thank you, Blayne.

所以謝謝你，布萊恩。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Joshua Buchalter。

I guess I wanted to follow up on the previous one and ask about -- we understand that the depreciation flow through, that it is what it is. But can you maybe talk through some of the near- to medium-term milestones, when the 300-millimeter increased output could start to benefit gross margin and sort of help offset the depreciation headwinds?

我想跟進上一個問題並詢問——我們了解折舊流程，它就是這樣。但您能否談談近期到中期的一些里程碑，即 300 毫米產量增加何時可以開始有利於毛利率並有助於抵消折舊逆風？

Yes. Just -- what I would tell you is depreciation, the way we depreciate equipment is over five years. Buildings is much longer, usually they average about 30 years or so. But consider that that equipment lasts a lot longer than five years, right? We have factories today that are running on 50 years plus. And some of that has had upgraded equipment. But broadly speaking, that equipment lasts for decades, not the five years where we depreciate it. So it's probably an unfair comparison to try to put the 300 benefit next to the depreciation and expect an offset in the short term.

是的。只是──我要告訴你的是折舊，我們設備折舊的方式是五年。建築物的壽命較長，通常平均壽命約30年。但請考慮一下，該設備的使用壽命遠遠超過五年，對吧？我們今天的工廠已經運作了50多年。其中一些已升級了設備。但從廣義上講，這些設備的使用壽命是幾十年，而不是我們折舊的五年。因此，試圖將 300 收益與折舊放在一起並期望在短期內得到抵消，這可能是不公平的比較。

I would suggest you think of it from a cash standpoint. We're investing that CapEx. It's cash. Forget about the depreciation, it's -- CapEx is what we're investing. That's going to enable growth by adding that internal capacity, which, as Dave alluded to earlier, that is geopolitically dependable capacity. We're putting as many as four fabs in Sherman, two in Richardson, two in Lehi in Utah. And then assembly test facilities in Asia, primarily Malaysia and Philippines, for example. So that's going to put us in a really great position to grow the top line for a long time. And then what happens there is that that yields a lot of operating cash for the company that then we can either redeploy or return to the owners of the company after those investments.

我建議你從現金的角度來考慮這個問題。我們正在投資該資本支出。這是現金。忘記折舊吧，我們正在投資的是資本支出。這將透過增加內部產能來促進成長，正如戴夫之前提到的，這是地緣政治上可靠的產能。我們在謝爾曼建立了多達四家晶圓廠，在理查森建立了兩家，在猶他州的萊希建立了兩家晶圓廠。然後是亞洲的組裝測試設施，主要是馬來西亞和菲律賓。所以這將使我們處於一個非常有利的位置，能夠長期實現營收成長。然後發生的事情是，這會為公司帶來大量的營運現金，然後我們可以重新部署這些現金，或者在投資後將其退還給公司所有者。

Do you have a follow-on, Josh?

喬希，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, sure. I recognize the language is similar last quarter regarding the end market commentary. But did anything change? Any better or worse intraquarter? And in particular, personal electronics grew, you've talked in the past about it sort of being a four-quarter cycle. Is it safe to say that that's sort of bottom now?

是的，當然。我知道上個季度有關終端市場評論的語言是類似的。但有什麼改變嗎？本季內有好轉或惡化的情況嗎？尤其是個人電子產品的成長，您過去曾談到這是一個四個季度的周期。現在是否可以肯定地說這已經是底部了？

Yes. Again, I think that overall, we had continued to see that asynchronous behavior as we started back a year ago. And so that has continued. PE, again, it started -- we started to see weakness in Q2, so we've completed now. It actually grew first to second. So we've got several quarters of decline. It was up slightly sequentially. And again, we're not expecting much change in our end markets as we look forward.

是的。再次，我認為總體而言，我們繼續看到這種異步行為，就像我們一年前開始時一樣。這種情況一直持續下去。 PE，再次，它開始了——我們開始看到第二季度的疲軟，所以現在已經完成了。它實際上從第一名成長到了第二名。因此，我們已經經歷了幾個季度的下滑。環比略有上漲。再次強調，我們預期終端市場不會有太大變化。

So okay. Thank you. And let's go to our last caller, please.

好吧。謝謝。現在我們來接聽最後一位來電者。

Our last caller comes from the line of Chris Caso with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一位來電者是 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Caso。

I guess just following up on the last few questions. Perhaps you could differentiate a little bit about where you think your customers are still burning through inventory as compared to end demand. And as you noted, the PE segment started to see weakness earlier. We heard from some others that it's no longer an inventory issue. It's more of a demand issue. Perhaps you could talk to that for some of your other end markets? And where we could see incremental weakness of customers still need to bring down inventory further.

我想這只是對最後幾個問題的回答。或許您可以稍微區分一下您認為客戶仍在消耗庫存的地方和最終需求。正如您所提到的，PE 領域早些時候就開始出現疲軟。我們從其他人那裡聽說這不再是一個庫存問題。這更多的是一個需求問題。也許您可以就其他一些終端市場談談這個問題？而且，我們看到客戶的逐漸疲軟仍需要進一步降低庫存。

Sure. Yes, Chris, I think if you look across the end markets broadly, you could say that all of them showed weakness and reflective of customers reducing inventories, with the exception of automotive. And even inside of that, of course, if you look at industrial, it's not -- all the sectors aren't identical, meaning you've had strength in aerospace, grid infrastructure, in other sectors like that. So -- and PE is the same way, not all of the sectors were as weak or as strong as others. So -- but broadly, you could say it was across each of those markets.

當然。是的，克里斯，我認為如果你廣泛地看待終端市場，你會發現除了汽車市場之外，所有終端市場都表現出疲軟，並且反映出客戶正在減少庫存。當然，即使在其中，如果你看看工業，並不是所有的行業都是相同的，這意味著你在航空航天、電網基礎設施和其他類似的行業中都有優勢。所以 — — PE 也是一樣，並不是所有的行業都像其他行業一樣弱或一樣強。所以 — — 但從廣義上講，你可以說它遍布每個市場。

Do you have a follow-on?

您有後續訊息嗎？

I do. And maybe as a follow-on, I'll hit on the segment that has remained strong, auto. And when this downturn began, I believe your commentary was that auto was -- had remained stable then. You thought that eventually it would come to auto just because it always has in the past. So far, it hasn't. I think it surprised a lot of us, the resilience on that. Has your view changed about the resilience of the auto market? Do you still expect that that has to correct at some point? And if not, why do you think it's different?

我願意。或許作為後續，我會談談一直保持強勁的汽車領域。當經濟衰退開始時，我相信您的評論是汽車業當時保持穩定。您認為它最終會實現自動運行，只是因為過去它一直都是這樣。到目前為止還沒有。我認為這種韌性令我們很多人感到驚訝。您對汽車市場彈性的看法有什麼改變嗎？您是否仍期望這種情況在某一時刻會得到糾正？如果不是，您認為原因何在？

Yes. So it wouldn't surprise us if it corrected. I don't think anyone can declare certainty on those types of things in the future. But I think that customers will build inventory. I've got 37 years of experience in the industry now, and that's the way the markets have behaved in the past. So that's generally a good guide in the future, but I think you can't pound the table and make absolutes, but certainly wouldn't be surprised if that were the case.

是的。因此，如果它被修正，我們不會感到驚訝。我認為沒有人能夠對未來此類事情做出肯定的回答。但我認為客戶會建立庫存。我在這個行業已經有 37 年的經驗了，過去的市場運作方式就是這樣的。所以這通常對未來來說是一個很好的指導，但我認為你不能敲桌子並做出絕對的判斷，但如果情況確實如此，我肯定不會感到驚訝。

So with that, we'll hand it over to Rafael to wrap this up.

因此，我們將把這件事交給拉斐爾來完成。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Let me wrap up by emphasizing what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company, but ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate value for owners is the long-term growth of free cash flow per share.

最後，我想強調一下我們之前說過的內容。從本質上講，我們是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎，但最終，我們的目標以及衡量進步和為所有者創造價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的長期成長。

While we strive to achieve our objectives, we will continue to pursue our three ambitions. We will act like owners who will own the company for decades. We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing. And we will be a company that we are personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbor. When we are successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit.

在努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三大抱負。我們將像擁有公司幾十年的主人一樣行事。我們將適應不斷變化的世界並取得成功。我們將成為一家讓我們感到自豪並願意與它為鄰的公司。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和業主都會受益。

Thank you, and have a good evening.

謝謝您，祝您晚上愉快。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，各位現在可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。