Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 2026 營收達 78 億美元,年增 92%;調整後 EBITDA 35 億美元,年增 191%;淨損 5.41 億美元,較去年同期改善 4.67 億美元
    • 管理層預期 2026 年底 ARR(年化營收)將達 1,000 億美元,並將 1 兆美元營收目標提前至 2030 年
    • 公司於本季完成 IPO(淨募資 857 億美元)及 250 億美元投資級債券發行,盤後市場反應正面,強調資本結構穩健
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Starship 進展快速,V3 版本已完成兩次成功飛行,預計大幅提升運載能力並降低成本
      • Starlink 用戶數持續成長,Q2 淨增 170 萬用戶,企業與政府市場滲透率提升,航空、海事等新應用帶動需求
      • AI 事業(Grok 與雲端服務)營收大幅成長,Q2 AI 相關收入年增 247%,Compute 能力擴張迅速,年底預計超過 2GW
      • 企業與政府合約黏著度高,Q2 獲得超過 60 億美元美國政府合約,企業用戶流失率極低
    • 風險:
      • AI 與雲端服務對記憶體與 GPU 供應高度依賴,供需失衡可能推升成本
      • Starship、Starlink V3 等新技術大規模量產與部署仍有執行風險
      • 全球市場擴張需面對各國監管與頻譜政策不確定性
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總發射次數:上半年 78 次,軌道運載質量 1,041 噸,持續全球領先
    • Starlink 用戶數:Q2 淨增 170 萬,創單季新高,ARPU 持平於 66 美元/月
    • Starlink 衛星數:截至 6/30,軌道上約 10,200 顆(其中 9,600 顆為寬頻),總下行容量 800 Tbps
    • AI Compute 能力:Q2 結束時 1.4GW,Q1 為 1GW,去年同期僅 400MW,年底預計超過 2GW
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年底 ARR 預估達 1,000 億美元,主要由 AI 雲端服務帶動
    • 未來兩季 CapEx 水準預計與本季相當,Q2 CapEx 約 184 億美元(其中 158 億用於 AI 基礎建設)
    • Starship、Starlink V3、AI Compute 為資本支出重點,強調資本效率與投資報酬率
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 企業與政府合約的 backlog 轉換為營收的節奏與成長展望?
      A: 企業與政府合約黏著度高,從未流失企業客戶,航空、海事等市場滲透率低,成長空間大,預期企業營收將大幅超越消費者端。
    • Q: AI Compute 擴張目標與供應鏈信心?
      A: 目標 2027 年底達 10GW,實際規劃 2027 年底前累計 20GW 電力與冷卻設備,預期至少可達 15GW,與 Nvidia 合作確保 GPU 供應。
    • Q: Starlink Mobile 策略與市場規模、CapEx 展望?
      A: 明年開始發射新一代 Starlink Mobile 衛星,EchoStar 頻譜將大幅提升能力,預期可挑戰美國前三大電信商,將以創新方式部署地面基站,強調 CapEx 效率,尚未公布具體資本支出規模。
    • Q: AI Compute 業務的供需與定價展望?
      A: AI 計算需求年增 200%,供給僅增 20%,預期供需失衡將持續,Compute 定價具議價能力,單位電力可創造高額營收。
    • Q: Starship 13 號飛行學到什麼?重複使用進展?
      A: 13 號飛行表現優異,熱防護罩問題已基本解決,預計下次飛行嘗試用塔回收,未來一年內有望達到每日一飛。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for SpaceX's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm Andrea Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Elon, Gwynne, and Bret, and we are speaking to you from our facility in Bastrop, Texas.

    各位下午好。感謝各位今天參加 SpaceX 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我是 Andrea Williams,投資人關係主管。今天與我一同出席的有 Elon、Gwynne 與 Bret,我們正在德州巴斯特羅普(Bastrop)的設施向各位進行說明。

  • Our second quarter financial results were announced just after 3:00 PM central time, and all relevant materials have been published to our investor relations website at ir.spacex.com. For this webcast, our prepared remarks will be followed by a question-and-answer session. We will take live Q&A from equity analysts and then move to questions directly from our investors that were polled on our dedicated earnings Q&A platform.

    我們第二季財務結果已於中部時間下午 3:00 過後不久公布,所有相關資料亦已發布於我們的投資人關係網站 ir.spacex.com。就本次網路直播而言,我們的事先準備發言之後將進行問答環節。我們將先接受股票分析師的即時提問,接著再回答透過我們專屬財報問答平台投票彙整、由投資人直接提出的問題。

  • Thank you to everyone who submitted your questions in advance. During this webcast, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC, including our final prospectus and today's published Form 10-Q.

    感謝所有事先提交問題的各位。在本次網路直播中,我們將討論業務展望並發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於我們截至今日的預測與預期。由於多項風險與不確定性(包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交之文件中所提及者,包含最終招股說明書以及今日發布的 Form 10-Q),實際事件或結果可能與之存在重大差異。

  • Additionally, during this call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP measures. In our press release and our filings with the SEC, you can find additional disclosures, including all reconciliations with comparable GAAP measures.

    此外,在本次電話會議中,我們可能會討論若干非 GAAP 指標。在我們的新聞稿及向 SEC 提交的文件中,您可找到更多揭露資訊,包括與可比 GAAP 指標之所有調節表。

  • For the second quarter of 2026, we announced the following financial results as compared to the prior year quarter. Revenues of $7.8 billion, up 92% from $4.1 billion. A quarterly net loss of $541 million. An improvement of $467 million. An adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 191% from $1.2 billion.

    就 2026 年第二季而言,與去年同期相比,我們公布以下財務結果:營收 78 億美元,較 41 億美元成長 92%。單季淨損 5.41 億美元。改善 4.67 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 為 35 億美元,較 12 億美元成長 191%。

  • Now I will hand the call over to Elon for his opening remarks.

    現在我將把電話會議交給 Elon 進行開場致詞。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • Thank you. So it's been another milestone year for SpaceX so far. We're making great progress developing a fully and rapidly reusable, reliable rocket with Starship. We're connecting millions more people globally across 170 markets with fast, reliable, Starlink internet. We're building AI compute capacity at scale faster than anyone else, we believe. And we're significantly improving our AI models, most notably with the release of Grok 4.5 last month. And now I'll dive into each of those topics separately.

    謝謝。到目前為止,對 SpaceX 而言今年又是充滿里程碑的一年。我們在以 Starship 開發一款可完全且快速重複使用、可靠的火箭方面取得了重大進展。我們透過快速、可靠的 Starlink 網際網路,已在 170 個市場連結全球更多數以百萬計的人。我們相信,我們正在以比任何人都更快的速度大規模建置 AI 算力。我們也在顯著提升 AI 模型,最值得一提的是上個月發布的 Grok 4.5。接下來我會分別深入說明上述各個主題。

  • So with Starship, we completed two successful flights of Starship V3 in the past 90 days. Flight 13 demonstrated core capabilities necessary to achieve an orbital mission and return to starbase for catch. And on Flight 14 will be our first flight to fly our version 3 Starlink satellites, our communication satellites, to operational orbit. We will try to actually catch the first and the second stage of Starlink V3 this year. And we could possibly catch the ship as soon as the next flight.

    就 Starship 而言,我們在過去 90 天內完成了兩次 Starship V3 的成功飛行。第 13 次飛行展示了達成軌道任務並返回 Starbase 進行捕捉所需的核心能力。而第 14 次飛行將是我們首次把第 3 代 Starlink 衛星(我們的通訊衛星)送入可運作軌道的飛行。我們將在今年嘗試實際捕捉 Starlink V3 的第一級與第二級。而我們甚至可能最快在下一次飛行就捕捉到飛船。

  • And it's difficult to actually explain to most people just the incredible significance of Starship. And I think perhaps describing it in terms of tonnage to orbit is a good way to appreciate the magnitude of the impact Starship will have on the future of civilization.

    而要向大多數人解釋 Starship 令人難以置信的重要性其實很困難。我認為,若以「送入軌道的噸位」來描述,或許是理解 Starship 將對文明未來造成何等影響的一個好方法。

  • So right now, we deliver roughly 2,500 tons a year to orbit via Falcon. And this is a big number by normal standards. The rest of the world, I think, delivers around 300 tons. So we deliver 80% to 90% of total Earth mass to orbit per year with Falcon. Now with Starship, our aspirations, and I think we will achieve these aspirations, are to deliver well over a million tons to orbit per year and probably ultimately 10 million tons per year.

    目前,我們透過 Falcon 每年大約將 2,500 噸送入軌道。以一般標準來看,這已是很大的數字。世界其他地方,我認為大約每年送入 300 噸。因此,我們透過 Falcon 每年送入軌道的地球總質量占比約為 80% 到 90%。而有了 Starship,我們的目標——而且我認為我們會達成——是每年送入軌道遠超過 100 萬噸,最終可能達到每年 1,000 萬噸。

  • So this is not -- like if you had a chart where you plotted things, you would need a very, very big table to put the chart on to even see any of our competitors on that chart and to make that. So our next biggest competitor was one pixel high on the bar chart. You would still need a very big bar chart to represent the SpaceX Starship vehicle. And it's worth noting that we actually encourage our competitors to copy us. We do nothing to slow them down. We actually launch competing satellite constellations at fair prices, the same price we charge everyone. So we do encourage our competitors to copy us, but it's quite difficult to copy something like Starship.

    所以這不是——如果你畫一張圖表來呈現,你需要一張非常非常大的桌子才能把圖表放上去,才看得到任何競爭對手並把它做出來。我們下一個最大的競爭對手在長條圖上只有一個像素高。即便如此,你仍需要一張非常大的長條圖才能呈現 SpaceX 的 Starship 載具。值得注意的是,我們其實鼓勵競爭對手複製我們。我們不做任何事來拖慢他們。我們甚至以公平價格發射競爭性的衛星星座,收費與對所有客戶相同。因此我們確實鼓勵競爭對手複製我們,但要複製像 Starship 這樣的東西相當困難。

  • But we don't use patents as sort of a landmine exercise to stop people from copying us. We actively encourage it. So anyways, but when you think about it on that, you go from 2,500 tons a year to a million, potentially 10 million tons per year, it's really a ridiculously profound difference. But that is our plan, and I think we will achieve that plan.

    但我們不會把專利當作某種地雷式手段來阻止別人複製我們。我們反而積極鼓勵。總之,當你這樣思考時,從每年 2,500 噸到 100 萬噸、甚至可能每年 1,000 萬噸,這真的是極其深遠的差異。但這就是我們的計畫,而我認為我們會達成這個計畫。

  • Regarding Starlink, it's also worth just noting that the Starlink V3 satellite is about an order of magnitude more capable than the Starlink V2 satellite, which was already a very capable satellite. And we expect to launch about an order of magnitude more Starlink V3 satellites. So that would mean a roughly two order of magnitude increase in the delivered bandwidth.

    至於 Starlink,也值得一提的是,Starlink V3 衛星的能力大約比 Starlink V2 高出一個數量級,而 V2 本身就已經非常強大。而我們預期將發射約多一個數量級的 Starlink V3 衛星。這意味著可提供的頻寬將大約提升兩個數量級。

  • Even if our monetization per bit dropped by a factor of 10, that would still mean a 10 times increase in the revenue of Starlink. So I think people are really underestimating Starlink here. So this is a big deal. It's kind of hard for people to wrap their minds around this, but it's not out of the question that at some point, Starlink will deliver a majority of the world's internet, at least in countries where we're allowed to operate, which is the vast majority of countries.

    即使我們每 bit 的變現能力下降 10 倍,這仍意味著 Starlink 的營收將增加 10 倍。所以我認為人們真的低估了 Starlink。這是一件大事。人們很難理解這件事,但並非不可能的是,在某個時間點,Starlink 將提供全球多數的網際網路服務——至少在我們被允許營運的國家,而那是絕大多數國家。

  • So this is important to bear in mind -- and it's not in the infinity future. It's less than 10 years. And with the advent of AI and humanoid robotics and vehicle robotics and just a massive number of robots, the appetite for bandwidth will be much greater than it has been in the past. If you think of a human consuming perhaps or producing perhaps about a few hundred bits per second of output, and actually the average human is outputting less than one bit per second over the course of a day, which is 86,400 seconds.

    因此這點很重要——而且不是在無限遙遠的未來。是在不到 10 年內。隨著 AI、人形機器人、車輛機器人,以及大量機器人的出現,對頻寬的需求將遠高於過去。如果你把人類的消耗或產出想成每秒可能只有幾百 bit 的輸出,而事實上一般人在一天(86,400 秒)的平均輸出甚至不到每秒 1 bit。

  • Now computers could easily do billions of bits per second continuously over a 24 hour period. So this is why I would expect the appetite for bandwidth to grow dramatically with the growth of AI and robotics. And really, I think Starlink is the only thing that can actually service that bandwidth.

    而電腦則可以在 24 小時期間內持續輕易地做到每秒數十億 bit。因此我預期,隨著 AI 與機器人的成長,對頻寬的需求將大幅增加。而且我認為,真正能夠服務這種頻寬需求的,只有 Starlink。

  • Regarding AI, we're making rapid progress on Grok. Grok 4.5 was a huge improvement. And we have Grok 4.6 coming out probably next week. And then Grok 4.7 is about three or four weeks from today. And we expect the cadence of AI development to improve dramatically. And then with Grok 5, which should be out before the end of this year, we will be incorporating the entire corpus of SpaceX data. Basically, all the data that SpaceX has ever produced, which is a tremendous amount over the course of a quarter century, will be incorporated into Grok training.

    關於 AI,我們在 Grok 上正快速取得進展。Grok 4.5 是一次巨大的提升。而 Grok 4.6 可能會在下週推出。接著 Grok 4.7 大約在從今天起三到四週後推出。我們預期 AI 開發的節奏將顯著加快。然後在 Grok 5(應會在今年年底前推出)中,我們將納入 SpaceX 的完整資料語料庫。基本上,SpaceX 在四分之一個世紀以來所產生的所有資料——數量極其龐大——都將納入 Grok 的訓練。

  • And we think this will make Grok by far the best engineer. So these are all very, very big things. In addition, of course, we are providing compute to others. And we are building and deploying compute, I think, faster. Our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else. And our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over 2 gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may -- let's say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than 5 gigawatts of compute. That's the way to think about it.

    而我們認為,這將使 Grok 成為迄今為止最優秀的工程師。所以這些都是非常、非常重大的事情。此外,當然,我們也在向其他方提供算力。而且我認為,我們建置並部署算力的速度更快。我們的成長速度確實比任何人都快。而且我認為,我們在算力部署效率方面也是最高的。因此,我們預期今年年底算力將超過 2 吉瓦。而到明年年底,我們累計上線的算力可能會高出數倍。所以可能——比如說——更接近 10 吉瓦的算力,而不是 5 吉瓦。可以用這種方式來理解。

  • And going forward, we've decided to build exclusively on Nvidia. Because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture. We think it's the best AI computer. And we greatly value our close cooperation and partnership on many levels with Nvidia. So we're exclusive to Nvidia.

    展望未來,我們已決定完全採用 Nvidia 來建置。因為我們認為 Vera Rubin 架構是最好的架構。我們認為它是最好的 AI 電腦。而且我們非常重視與 Nvidia 在多個層面上的緊密合作與夥伴關係。所以我們將獨家採用 Nvidia。

  • This new capacity coming online will obviously further benefit the development of Grok, as will our Cursor acquisition, which should close quite soon. I think we're through almost all of the regulatory hurdles. And then with respect to the Starmind AI satellite, which will be essentially an optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 computer. This is not some sort of far-future distant thing. We expect to start launching these next year.

    這些即將上線的新產能顯然將進一步有利於 Grok 的發展,我們對 Cursor 的收購亦然,該交易應該很快就會完成交割。我認為我們幾乎已經通過所有監管障礙。另外,關於 Starmind AI 衛星,它本質上將是一台經過最佳化的 Vera Rubin NVL72 電腦。這不是什麼遙遠未來的事情。我們預計明年就會開始發射這些衛星。

  • And we think the design of the NVL72 VR computer is a much better design than is typical. Having a standard rack-style design. And so we expect to actually deploy this on the ground as well as in orbit. Because we think it's going to be a radical simplification of the normal NVL72 rack. It will cost less. It will be more effective. And so if we're going to put it in space, we want to put it on the ground. So I think that's going to be pretty cool.

    而且我們認為 NVL72 VR 電腦的設計,比一般常見的設計要好得多。它採用標準的機櫃式(rack-style)設計。因此我們預期會把它部署在地面,同時也部署到軌道上。因為我們認為它將對傳統 NVL72 機櫃帶來顛覆性的簡化。成本會更低。效果會更好。所以如果我們要把它放到太空,我們也希望把它放到地面。我覺得這會相當酷。

  • In conclusion, the SpaceX team is solving some of the hardest engineering problems in the history of humanity. And I think the team is succeeding because we've got -- in a lot of ways, the smartest, most dedicated team of humans that has ever existed. I'm incredibly proud to work with such a team. And I'd like to thank the team for their incredible hard work. And also thank you to investors who have supported us along the way.

    總結來說,SpaceX 團隊正在解決人類歷史上一些最艱難的工程問題。而我認為團隊之所以能成功,是因為我們——在很多方面——擁有有史以來最聰明、最投入的一群人。能與這樣的團隊共事,我感到無比自豪。我也想感謝團隊令人難以置信的辛勤付出。同時也感謝一路支持我們的投資人。

  • Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Elon. We had an exceptional second quarter. And today I'll focus on the operational and commercial highlights, as well as the initiatives we have prioritized going forward. Starting with our space business, we remain the leading launch provider globally, with 78 total launches and 1,041 tons of mass to orbit delivered in the first half of this year, primarily allocated to our own internal Starlink missions, but with great customer missions as well.

    謝謝,Elon。我們第二季表現非常出色。今天我將聚焦於營運與商業亮點,以及我們未來優先推進的各項計畫。先從我們的太空業務談起:我們仍是全球領先的發射服務供應商,今年上半年共完成 78 次發射,向軌道運送 1,041 噸載荷,主要用於我們內部的 Starlink 任務,同時也包含許多重要的客戶任務。

  • While our launch capabilities are key to supporting our connectivity business, we continue to have a very robust commercial manifest and a very robust and growing US government mission demand, which drives revenue for the segment. We're currently launching at our highest Falcon cadence and are on the precipice of operationalizing Starship.

    雖然我們的發射能力是支撐連線業務的關鍵,但我們仍擁有非常強勁的商業發射清單,以及非常強勁且持續成長的美國政府任務需求,這些都推動了該業務分部的營收。我們目前以最高的 Falcon 發射節奏執行任務,並且正處於將 Starship 轉入營運化的關鍵門檻。

  • As Elon said, the first two flights of our V3 Starship vehicles put us in an excellent position to achieve our near-term goals of reaching orbit, catching and reusing the ships and boosters, and deploying our V3 Starlink broadband satellites.

    如 Elon 所說,我們 V3 Starship 飛行器的前兩次飛行,讓我們處於極佳位置,可望達成近期目標:進入軌道、捕捉並重複使用飛船與助推器,以及部署我們的 V3 Starlink 寬頻衛星。

  • Speaking of which, Starlink had a standout quarter, driven by continued growth across our consumer, enterprise, and government businesses. During the second quarter, we added, net, more than 1.7 million Starlink subscribers globally, consumer. This reflects our best quarter of new customers to date, an increase from the 1.4 million we added during the first quarter. We achieved this by holding ARPU, which is the average revenue per user, stable at $66 per month compared to the first quarter. We ended the second quarter with service availability in 167 markets and have continued to activate new markets since then, with some very exciting announcements coming soon, maybe even as early as today.

    說到這裡,Starlink 在本季表現亮眼,主要受惠於我們在消費者、企業與政府業務的持續成長。第二季期間,我們在全球新增(淨增)超過 170 萬名 Starlink 消費者訂戶。這是我們迄今新增客戶表現最佳的一季,較第一季新增的 140 萬名有所提升。我們之所以能做到,是因為我們將 ARPU(每用戶平均收入)維持穩定,與第一季相比仍為每月 66 美元。第二季末,我們在 167 個市場提供服務,之後也持續開通新市場;很快會有一些非常令人振奮的公告,甚至可能最早就在今天。

  • As of June 30, our constellation of operational Starlink Broadband and Mobile Satellites in orbit grew to roughly 10,200, with our 9,600 broadband satellites delivering roughly 800 terabits per second of total downlink capacity.

    截至 6 月 30 日,我們在軌運行的 Starlink 寬頻與行動衛星星座規模增至約 10,200 顆,其中 9,600 顆寬頻衛星提供約每秒 800 太比特(Tbps)的總下行容量。

  • Following a successful speed run test of the V3 Starlink satellites on the most recent Starship launch, during which we connected every satellite through every laser link, we intended to deploy V3 satellites into the constellation for operational use on the upcoming Starship missions. The significant amount of capacity we're able to add to the Starlink constellation from the V3 satellites will enable us to continue providing even better service, I think it's pretty great already, but to do so while serving more and more customers over the world.

    在最近一次 Starship 發射中,我們對 V3 Starlink 衛星進行了成功的「速度跑」測試,期間我們透過每一條雷射鏈路連接了每一顆衛星;因此,我們計畫在接下來的 Starship 任務中,將 V3 衛星部署進星座以供營運使用。我們能透過 V3 衛星為 Starlink 星座新增的大量容量,將使我們能持續提供更好的服務——我認為現在已經相當不錯——同時也能在全球服務越來越多的客戶。

  • In fact, in the years ahead, we expect Starlink will represent a significant portion of global internet traffic, which Elon also talked about. We also see significant growth opportunities for Starlink on the enterprise and government side of the business. We believe revenue from these markets have the potential to reach a scale at least comparable but likely exceed our consumer business as we continue to gain share.

    事實上,在未來幾年,我們預期 Starlink 將承載全球網際網路流量中的相當大一部分,Elon 也提到過這點。我們也看到 Starlink 在企業與政府端有顯著的成長機會。我們相信,隨著我們持續提升市占,來自這些市場的營收規模有潛力至少與消費者業務相當,且很可能超越消費者業務。

  • In the second quarter, we signed a major agreement with American Airlines, as well as activated our service with new partners, including Southwest, Virgin Atlantic, Iberia, and Aer Lingus. We have become the provider of choice among major airlines with outstanding customer feedback but still have significant room for growth. In fact, we heard from one of our airline customers, shockingly, customers are flying shorter hop flights instead of direct so that they could ensure that they're on a Starlink activated flight. They'd never seen this in the business before.

    第二季,我們與美國航空(American Airlines)簽署了一項重大協議,並與包括 Southwest、維珍大西洋(Virgin Atlantic)、伊比利亞航空(Iberia)以及愛爾蘭航空(Aer Lingus)等新夥伴啟用服務。憑藉出色的客戶回饋,我們已成為主要航空公司首選的供應商,但仍有很大的成長空間。事實上,我們從一位航空公司客戶那裡聽到一件令人震驚的事:乘客為了確保搭到已啟用 Starlink 的航班,竟然改搭較短的轉機航段,而不是直飛。他們表示在這個行業裡從未見過這種情況。

  • On the government side, we won more than $6 billion in US contracts in Q2, supporting major Space Force programs that offer our nation mission-critical communications and sensing capabilities, and we see even more room for growth in this sector in this coming year.

    在政府端,我們於第二季贏得超過 60 億美元的美國合約,支援多項太空軍(Space Force)重大計畫,為我國提供任務關鍵的通訊與感測能力;我們也預期在接下來一年,該領域仍有更大的成長空間。

  • In Q2, we also launched the new Starlink mobile partnerships with international carriers, including SoftBank, NTT, DoCoMo, and Spark New Zealand. Our near-term priority is launching Mobile V2 satellites on Starship, ahead of integrating the 65 megahertz of EchoStar spectrum later next year. This spectrum transfer was recently approved by the FCC and represents a foundational competitive advantage for Starlink mobile.

    第二季,我們也與國際電信業者推出新的 Starlink 行動合作夥伴關係,包括 SoftBank、NTT、DoCoMo,以及 Spark New Zealand。我們的短期優先事項,是在整合明年稍晚將導入的 65 兆赫(MHz)EchoStar 頻譜之前,先透過 Starship 發射 Mobile V2 衛星。這項頻譜移轉近期已獲 FCC 核准,並構成 Starlink 行動服務的一項基礎性競爭優勢。

  • In AI, the industry is hurtling towards ever more compute demands. We're rapidly expanding our compute capacity to meet our own needs as Grok expands, as well as those for other leading companies, such as Google and Anthropic.

    在 AI 領域,產業正快速奔向更高的算力需求。隨著 Grok 擴張,我們正迅速擴大算力容量,以滿足自身需求,同時也滿足其他領先公司的需求,例如 Google 與 Anthropic。

  • In terms of our own Grok models, the enterprise feedback on rollout of Grok 4.5 has been very positive so far. Token consumption tripled out of the gate after the July release, and we continue to see strong signals on usage and monetization for the model. We're looking forward to welcoming the Cursor team to SpaceX to integrate our engineering and begin to benefit from a combined sales capability.

    就我們自家的 Grok 模型而言,企業客戶對 Grok 4.5 上線推廣的回饋迄今非常正面。7 月發布後,Token 消耗量在一開始就成長了三倍,而我們也持續看到該模型在使用與變現方面的強勁訊號。我們期待歡迎 Cursor 團隊加入 SpaceX,以整合我們的工程能力,並開始受益於合併後的銷售能力。

  • In review, our momentum as a business is extraordinary. Our engineering teams are scaling Starship and our next-gen satellites, while our sales teams expand Starlink, Aviation, Mobility, and Global Markets. At the same time, we're bringing on additional compute capacity and expanding and deepening our AI partnerships across a broader set of customers. And though I've been in this business for 24 years, I could not be more excited about the months ahead with all the exciting and amazing things going on. It really feels like we're just getting started all over again.

    總結來說,我們作為一家企業的動能非同凡響。我們的工程團隊正在擴大 Starship 與下一代衛星的規模,同時我們的銷售團隊也在拓展 Starlink、航空、移動與全球市場。與此同時,我們正在導入更多運算產能,並在更廣泛的客戶群中擴大且深化我們的 AI 合作夥伴關係。儘管我已在這個產業 24 年,但面對接下來幾個月所有令人振奮且驚人的進展,我從未如此興奮。這真的讓人覺得我們彷彿又重新開始。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Bret.

    現在我把電話會議交給 Bret。

  • Bret Johnsen - Chief Financial Officer

    Bret Johnsen - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Gwynne. We demonstrated strong results in Q2. Revenue growth accelerated across every segment. We narrowed our net losses by nearly half, and on a year-over-year basis, and we grew adjusted EBITDA meaningfully faster than revenue. Importantly, we significantly strengthened the balance sheet through our IPO and inaugural investment-grade bond offering. The combination of our global launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and rapid growth in AI infrastructure continues to drive improved operating leverage.

    謝謝你,Gwynne。我們在第二季展現了強勁的成果。各個業務分部的營收成長皆加速。我們的淨虧損較去年同期縮小了將近一半,且調整後 EBITDA 的成長速度顯著快於營收。更重要的是,我們透過 IPO 與首次投資級債券發行,顯著強化了資產負債表。我們在全球發射領域的領先地位、Starlink 的經常性收入,以及 AI 基礎設施的快速成長,持續推動營運槓桿改善。

  • Now I'll walk through the financials for each segment. For the space segment, revenue grew 55% sequentially and 29% year-over-year to $962 million, driven by a higher number of larger customer launches and a favorable customer mix. Segment costs and expenses rose $389 million year-over-year, and we continued to accelerate R&D investments in our Starship program. Starship aims to quadruple payload capacity and reduce launch costs by 10 times compared to our Falcon 9 rocket, unlocking significant capabilities across all of our business segments.

    接下來我將逐一說明各分部的財務表現。在太空分部,營收較前一季成長 55%、較去年同期成長 29%,達 9.62 億美元,主要受惠於較多且規模更大的客戶發射任務,以及有利的客戶組合。分部成本與費用較去年同期增加 3.89 億美元,我們也持續加速對 Starship 計畫的研發投資。Starship 的目標是將載荷能力提升至四倍,並將發射成本相較於 Falcon 9 降低 10 倍,從而在我們所有業務分部解鎖重大能力。

  • We continue to make progress building the infrastructure required to support thousands of Starship launches per year, including accelerating Raptor and launch vehicle production, the build-out of our Gigabay, and making significant progress towards activating multiple launch pads at Starbase and in Cape Canaveral at Pad 39A and Pad37. Space adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $205 million for the quarter, primarily reflecting these higher R&D expenses.

    我們持續在建置支援每年數千次 Starship 發射所需的基礎設施方面取得進展,包括加速 Raptor 與運載火箭的生產、擴建 Gigabay,並在 Starbase 以及卡納維爾角的 39A 與 Pad37 發射台朝啟用多個發射台取得重大進展。本季太空分部調整後 EBITDA 為虧損 2.05 億美元,主要反映上述較高的研發費用。

  • Moving to the connectivity segment, revenue was up to $4.3 billion, up 32% sequentially and 66% year-over-year. Growth was driven by record net additions of Starlink subscribers and a sharp increase in enterprise and government revenue. Starlink subscriber ARPU was $66, unchanged compared to Q1.

    接著看連線分部,營收增至 43 億美元,較前一季成長 32%、較去年同期成長 66%。成長動能來自 Starlink 訂戶淨新增創新高,以及企業與政府營收大幅增加。Starlink 訂戶 ARPU 為 66 美元,與第一季持平。

  • As we continue our global expansion, we're taking a localized go-to-market approach that ensures our product and service offerings fit local needs. While our geographic expansion may drive down blended ARPU over time, we anticipate continued subscriber momentum to deliver strong revenue growth.

    在我們持續全球擴張之際,我們採取在地化的市場進入策略,以確保產品與服務供給符合當地需求。雖然地理擴張可能隨時間拉低整體(混合)ARPU,我們預期訂戶動能仍將延續,帶動強勁的營收成長。

  • Enterprise and government revenue grew 108% year-over-year and represents a durable source of revenue, contributing to strong segment margins overall. As Gwynne mentioned, we see enormous opportunity for growth in this segment. As we remain, for example, less than 10% penetrated in one of the largest segments being aviation.

    企業與政府營收較去年同期成長 108%,且是具韌性的收入來源,整體上支撐了分部的強勁利潤率。如 Gwynne 所提到,我們在此分部看見巨大的成長機會。例如,在最大的分項之一—航空—我們的滲透率仍不到 10%。

  • Total costs and expenses for the connectivity segment increased $970 million or approximately 58% year-over-year. The increase was driven by higher spend to support our revenue growth, including growth in our satellite constellation, increased R&D investment for our next-gen version 3 satellites, and incremental marketing spend.

    連線分部的總成本與費用較去年同期增加 9.70 億美元,約成長 58%。增加主要來自為支援營收成長而提高的支出,包括衛星星座擴張、對下一代第 3 版衛星的研發投資增加,以及額外的行銷支出。

  • As Elon mentioned, our version 3 satellites are expected to deliver 10 times the amount of broadband capacity and data density from our current generations, which I think we believe are already pretty amazing, and which are essential to supporting continued subscriber growth and higher value service tiers.

    如 Elon 所提到,我們的第 3 版衛星預期可提供相較於目前世代 10 倍的寬頻容量與資料密度;我們認為現有世代已相當出色,而第 3 版衛星對於支援訂戶持續成長與更高價值的服務級距至關重要。

  • Income from operations from the connectivity segment increased 79% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, outpacing revenue growth and driving nearly 3 points of operating margin expansion. Connectivity segment adjusted EBITDA rose 64% year-over-year to $2.6 billion. AI segment revenue was $2.6 billion, up 213% sequentially and 247% year-over-year. The increase was driven primarily by new cloud services agreements, as well as growth in Grok and X subscription revenue. Advertising revenue grew 7% sequentially, as we overhauled our advertising platform technology to enable AI functionality and enhance self-service for all customer types.

    連線分部的營業利益較去年同期成長 79%,達 17 億美元,增速超越營收成長,並帶動營業利益率擴張近 3 個百分點。連線分部調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期成長 64%,達 26 億美元。AI分部營收為 26 億美元,較前一季成長 213%、較去年同期成長 247%。增加主要由新的雲端服務協議所帶動,並受 Grok 與 X 訂閱營收成長挹注。廣告營收較前一季成長 7%,因我們全面改造廣告平台技術以導入 AI 功能,並強化各類客戶的自助服務能力。

  • In Q2, we entered into cloud services agreements providing access to compute capacity at our Colossus and Colossus 2 sites. The initial ramp from these agreements contributed $1.6 billion of incremental AI infrastructure revenue in the quarter. Total costs and expenses for the AI segment rose $1.6 billion year-over-year, reflecting increased R&D, primarily due to higher infrastructure spend, as we accelerated compute deployment. We meaningfully narrowed our AI segment net operating loss to $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA positive for the segment in the second quarter at $1.1 billion.

    在第二季,我們簽訂雲端服務協議,提供客戶存取我們 Colossus 與 Colossus 2 站點的運算產能。這些協議的初期爬坡在本季貢獻了 16 億美元的新增 AI 基礎設施營收。AI 分部的總成本與費用較去年同期增加 16 億美元,反映研發支出上升,主要因我們加速部署運算資源而提高基礎設施支出。我們大幅縮小 AI 分部的淨營運虧損至 13 億美元,且第二季該分部調整後 EBITDA 轉為正值,達 11 億美元。

  • The incremental revenue from new hosting deals generated high incremental EBITDA margins as we monetized available compute capacity. We ended the second quarter with 1.4 gigawatts of nameplate compute, up from 1 gigawatt in Q1 and 400 megawatts a year earlier. We expect to end this year at over 2 gigawatts of compute capacity.

    來自新代管(hosting)交易的新增營收,在我們將可用運算產能變現的同時,帶來了高新增 EBITDA 利潤率。第二季末,我們的名目運算規模達 1.4 吉瓦,高於第一季的 1 吉瓦,也高於一年前的 4 億瓦。我們預期今年年底運算產能將超過 2 吉瓦。

  • Total company capital expenditures in the second quarter were approximately $18.4 billion, of which roughly $15.8 billion supported AI compute infrastructure. The remainder funded ongoing Starship and launch infrastructure, satellite production, and global ground station expansion. Additionally, we paid out $856 million during the quarter under our Spectrum credit agreement related to our pending EchoStar transaction.

    第二季全公司資本支出約為 184 億美元,其中約 158 億美元用於支援 AI 運算基礎設施。其餘資金用於持續的 Starship 與發射基礎設施、衛星生產,以及全球地面站擴張。此外,本季我們依據 Spectrum 信貸協議支付了 8.56 億美元,與我們待完成的 EchoStar 交易相關。

  • Our capital allocation priorities remain clear and disciplined. We plan to continue to invest aggressively in the three areas we believe generate the highest long-term returns, Starship development and production scale, next generation Starlink broadband and mobile constellations, and AI compute infrastructure. Across all three of these investments, we remain focused on capital efficiency, return on investment, and preservation of a strong investment-grade balance sheet.

    我們的資本配置優先順序依然清晰且具紀律。我們計畫持續在三個我們認為可帶來最高長期報酬的領域積極投資:Starship 的開發與量產擴規、下一代 Starlink 寬頻與行動通訊星座,以及 AI 運算基礎設施。在這三項投資上,我們仍聚焦於資本效率、投資報酬率,以及維持強健的投資級資產負債表。

  • The second quarter was transformative from a capital markets perspective. We completed our initial public offering, raising approximately $85.7 billion in net proceeds and followed that with a $25 billion inaugural investment-grade senior notes offering that was partially used to repay our $20 billion bridge loan. The senior notes were issued across five tranches with a weighted average interest rate of 5.855% and average maturity of 11.7 years. We ended the quarter with $100 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and $47.5 billion in backlog.

    從資本市場角度來看,第二季具有轉型意義。我們完成首次公開發行(IPO),募集約 857 億美元的淨募資額,並隨後完成 250 億美元的首次投資級優先票據發行,其中部分資金用於償還 200 億美元的過橋貸款。該優先票據分五個期別發行,加權平均利率為 5.855%,平均到期年限為 11.7 年。本季末我們持有 1,000 億美元的現金、約當現金與有價證券,以及 475 億美元的在手訂單(backlog)。

  • Looking ahead, we continue to see robust demand in all three of our business segments, but in particular in our cloud services arrangements. We see increasingly favorable economics with each agreement we sign. And as Elon mentioned, we expect the supply demand imbalance in the compute market to continue. The current economics have translated into a less than one year payback on our new capital deployments for compute.

    展望未來,我們在三個業務分部皆持續看到強勁需求,尤其是在雲端服務安排方面。我們看到每一份新簽署的協議,其經濟效益都愈發有利。且如 Elon 所提到,我們預期運算市場的供需失衡將持續存在。目前的經濟性意味著,我們在運算相關的新資本投入回收期不到一年。

  • For example, in the first few weeks of the third quarter, we've already contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over a six-month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year. We believe this puts us on a trajectory, including contribution from Cursor to reach $100 billion of ARR or annualized revenue run rate by the end of this year based on our expected revenue in the month of December of this year.

    例如,在第三季的前幾週,我們已額外簽約 67 億美元的雲端服務營收,涵蓋一個為期六個月的期間,並將自今年 10 月起開始逐步放量。我們相信,這使我們走在一條軌道上,包含 Cursor 的貢獻在內,依據我們預期今年 12 月單月的營收表現,於今年年底達到 1,000 億美元 ARR(年度經常性收入)或年化營收運行率。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back to Andrea.

    那麼,我把電話交回給 Andrea。

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Elon, Gwynne, and Bret. This concludes our prepared remarks. For today's Q&A session, we will take our first questions from the equity analysts.

    謝謝你,Elon、Gwynne 和 Bret。以上為我們的事先準備發言。接下來進入今天的問答環節,我們將先從股票分析師開始提問。

  • (Event Instructions) Operator, please proceed with the queue.

    (活動指示) 接線員,請開始安排提問順序。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs

    Eric Sheridan,高盛

  • Eric Sheridan - Analyst

    Eric Sheridan - Analyst

  • Thanks so much for taking the question and thanks for all the details in the prepared remarks. Maybe just one on the connectivity segment. Can you discuss the backlog of enterprise and government contracts in that segment of the business and how we think about that backlog converting it to revenue and what that might mean for the pace and cadence of growth in the next couple of years?

    非常感謝讓我提問,也謝謝在準備發言中提供的所有細節。我想問一個關於連線(connectivity)部門的問題。能否談談該業務中企業與政府合約的積壓訂單(backlog)情況,以及我們應如何看待這些積壓訂單轉化為營收,並且這對未來幾年成長的速度與節奏可能意味著什麼?

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we are quite bullish on our enterprise activities. I mentioned a loan that we received from the government over $6 billion in contracts. Those are -- you can look at those as tranches and beginnings of additional capability that we will bring online, some of which we will have to compete, but fundamentally we have the contracts in place to fulfill many phenomenologies, both the ones we recently announced as well as additional ones that we'll be working on going forward.

    是的,我們對企業端業務相當看好。我提到我們從政府那裡獲得了一筆貸款,並且有超過 60 億美元的合約。這些——你可以把它們視為分批(tranches)以及我們將上線的額外能力的起點,其中有些我們需要競標,但從根本上說,我們已經有合約在手,能夠交付許多不同的任務需求(phenomenologies),包括我們最近宣布的,以及未來將持續推進的其他項目。

  • Enterprise revenue is quite sticky. We have never lost an enterprise customer. They're quite happy with the Starlink capability that we have right now. Bret mentioned we are only 10% penetrated in the aviation industry, which definitely represents a lot of headroom for revenue going forward.

    企業營收的黏著度很高。我們從未失去過任何一位企業客戶。他們對我們目前的 Starlink 能力非常滿意。Bret 提到我們在航空產業的滲透率只有 10%,這顯然代表未來營收仍有很大的成長空間。

  • Maritime, I think, is Starlink opens up the TAM dramatically. Starlink offers the capability that ships that don't really have much connectivity right now because they can't afford VSATs, we can basically outfit those ships with Starlink Maritime. So I'm quite bullish on enterprise, very bullish on government, and quite happy with the stickiness that we've seen in those markets.

    至於海事(Maritime),我認為 Starlink 會大幅擴大可服務市場(TAM)。Starlink 提供的能力,讓那些目前幾乎沒有連線、因為負擔不起 VSAT 的船舶,我們基本上可以用 Starlink Maritime 來為它們配備連線。所以我對企業端非常看好、對政府端更是非常看好,也很滿意我們在這些市場看到的高黏著度。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • I'll just elaborate a little bit on that, which is that, obviously, in order to secure a large amount of enterprise revenue, you have to demonstrate very high reliability, very high uptime. And in the early days, Starlink did not have high uptime. And there's a lot of enterprise customers, most enterprise customers, I'd say -- that still have that maybe early Starlink experience where it was a little patchy.

    我再補充一點:顯然,要取得大量企業營收,你必須展現非常高的可靠性、非常高的上線時間(uptime)。而在早期,Starlink 的上線時間並不高。而且有很多企業客戶——我想大多數企業客戶——仍然停留在早期的 Starlink 使用經驗,覺得它有點斷斷續續。

  • So we actually were building up a large enterprise sales team just to go out there, meet with enterprise corporate and government customers, show them the incredible uptime and low latency of the Starlink system today. So they realize that -- they can actually treat Starlink as a primary provider, not sort of as a backup provider. This requires just going out there, talking to people, educating them about the current state of the Starlink system and where it's going. And I would expect enterprise revenue to substantially exceed consumer revenue.

    因此我們其實正在建立一支大型的企業銷售團隊,去拜訪企業總部與政府客戶,向他們展示如今 Starlink 系統驚人的上線時間與低延遲。讓他們意識到——他們其實可以把 Starlink 當作主要供應商,而不只是備援供應商。這需要我們走出去與人交流,教育他們了解 Starlink 系統目前的狀態以及未來的發展方向。我預期企業營收將大幅超過消費者營收。

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • Next question, operator.

    下一題,接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

    Adam Jonas,摩根士丹利。

  • Adam Jonas - Analyst

    Adam Jonas - Analyst

  • Thanks. Elon, first one for you. Just confirming, you said you expect to be closer to 10 gigawatts of nameplate compute by end of '27, closer to 10 than 5. Do you have line of sight? How confident is your line of sight on permitting, chips and turbines for that?

    謝謝。Elon,第一題問你。確認一下,你說你預期到 27 年底名目算力(nameplate compute)會更接近 10 吉瓦,而不是 5 吉瓦。你是否已經有明確可見度(line of sight)?對於許可、晶片與渦輪機的取得,你的可見度有多大把握?

  • And then I have a follow-up for Gwynne. Thanks.

    然後我還有一個追問要問 Gwynne。謝謝。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • So we're actually aiming to far exceed that gigawatt number in terms of power online, power cooling and electrical equipment. So our tentative target is to actually have 20 gigawatts at the power and cooling level online by the end of next year. Now I don't think we're going to achieve 20 gigawatts, but we want to have a series of projects that cumulatively come to 20 gigawatts by the end of next year.

    我們其實的目標是在上線電力(power online)、冷卻能力以及電氣設備方面,遠遠超過那個吉瓦數。所以我們暫定的目標是,到明年年底在電力與冷卻層級上線 20 吉瓦。當然我不認為我們會真的達到 20 吉瓦,但我們希望在明年年底前,累計規劃一系列專案,總量加起來達到 20 吉瓦。

  • Some of them won't pan out exactly on time, but I would expect that we still probably have at the power plant level, something close to 15 gigawatts. So assuming that maybe a quarter of the projects take longer than expected.

    其中有些專案不會完全按時落地,但我預期即便如此,在電廠層級(power plant level)我們仍可能接近 15 吉瓦。也就是假設大約四分之一的專案進度比預期更久。

  • So our goal is to have far more power, cooling and electrical equipment, then we have GPUs. That's a logical thing to do given the relative expense of GPUs versus balance of system. SpaceX as a company is incredibly good at hardware. In fact, I'd say probably outside of China, SpaceX and Tesla are the two best companies on earth at hardware.

    因此我們的目標是:電力、冷卻與電氣設備要遠多於我們擁有的 GPU。考量 GPU 相對於系統其餘部分(balance of system)的成本,這是合理的做法。SpaceX 這家公司在硬體方面極其擅長。事實上,我會說也許在中國以外,SpaceX 和 Tesla 是地球上硬體最強的兩家公司。

  • Yeah. And I think perhaps even including China. So we're taking a small amount of the expertise that we use for rockets and satellites and applying that to scaling terrestrial data centers. And we're finding that even a small amount of what we've learned, building rockets which are incredibly difficult, applied to data centers yields tremendous benefits.

    是的。我想甚至把中國也算進來可能也是如此。所以我們把一小部分用於火箭與衛星的專業能力,應用到擴建地面資料中心上。我們發現,即使只運用一小部分我們在打造極其困難的火箭時學到的東西,套用到資料中心,也能帶來巨大的效益。

  • So yes, we expect to have far in excess of the power cooling that's needed. And then our understanding with Nvidia is that we will receive a very significant percent of their GPUs next year.

    所以是的,我們預期在電力與冷卻方面會遠超所需。另外,我們與 Nvidia 的理解是,明年我們將獲得他們相當可觀比例的 GPU 供應。

  • Eric Sheridan - Analyst

    Eric Sheridan - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks, Elon. Gwynne, just a follow-up. You were recently asked what is one of the more underappreciated parts of the SpaceX investment story. And you said robotics. Can you elaborate on why you believe that? How do robots fit into the SpaceX TAM?

    好的,謝謝你,Elon。Gwynne,我追問一下。你最近被問到 SpaceX 投資故事中有哪些較不被重視的部分。你回答是機器人(robotics)。你能否說明為什麼你這麼認為?機器人如何融入 SpaceX 的可服務市場(TAM)?

  • Thanks, Gwynne.

    謝謝,Gwynne。

  • Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Let me try to put something together for you. I think what I might have said is underappreciating the amount of connectivity that we will need going forward. And I think robotics, especially robotics tied to AI, like for autos and humanoid robot will dramatically increase the demand for connectivity dramatically. Elon talked about that in his early -- in his remarks.

    我試著為你整理一下。我想我可能說的是:大家低估了我們未來所需要的連線量。而我認為機器人,尤其是與 AI 結合的機器人,例如汽車與人形機器人,將會大幅、顯著地提升對連線的需求。Elon 在他一開始——在他的發言中也談到了這點。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • I mean you can think about satellites as being robots. I mean they're autonomous, and they do not need servicing. So -- and then in the sort of what may seem the far future, but will come faster than you think, using robots on the moon to scale up manufacturing on the moon, which -- it sounds like super Sci-Fi right now, but it's going to happen, will enable us to build the mass accelerator on the moon.

    我的意思是,你也可以把衛星視為機器人。它們是自主運作的,而且不需要維修。所以——然後在看似很遙遠、但會比你想像更快到來的未來,使用機器人在月球上擴大月面製造規模——這聽起來現在非常科幻,但它會發生——將使我們能在月球上建造質量加速器(mass accelerator)。

  • And if you have a mass accelerator on the moon and you have solar and radiator production on the moon, you can -- I know this sounds totally nuts, but you can probably scale to 1,000 times the economy of earth in terms of intelligence launch to space, but probably maybe even 1 million times. So we are going to land a lot of tonnage on the moon. We're going to build the factories on the moon. The robots will be helpful with that. And then it's like, well, how much intelligence would you like as we grow towards being a Kardashev 2 scale civilization.

    如果你在月球上有質量加速器,並且在月球上生產太陽能與散熱器(radiator),你就——我知道這聽起來完全瘋狂——你可能可以把太空中的智慧(intelligence)發射規模,擴大到相當於地球經濟的 1,000 倍,甚至可能達到 100 萬倍。所以我們將在月球上運送並著陸大量噸位的物資。我們將在月球上建造工廠。機器人會在這方面提供幫助。接著就變成:當我們朝向 Kardashev 2 級文明成長時,你希望擁有多少智慧規模。

  • Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • Did that get that for you, Adam?

    Adam,這樣有回答到你的問題嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citigroup.

    John Godyn,花旗集團。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for taking my question. One of the hallmarks of SpaceX to date is how efficiently the organization has used capital so far in its journey. But it's also no secret that the capital needs are significant to support your vision from here. Obviously, the company is moving fast. So I was hoping you could talk a bit more about the CapEx outlook across the segments, touch upon any areas where buying versus building might accelerate growth. The mobile strategy obviously comes to mind there. And any related thoughts on capital needs for next steps in extreme vertical integration like Terafab, anything that's needed to support future growth? Thanks.

    嗨,謝謝讓我提問。到目前為止,SpaceX 的一大特色是,在一路走來的過程中,組織對資本的運用非常有效率。但同時也眾所周知,從現在開始要支撐你們的願景,資本需求相當可觀。顯然,公司正在快速推進。所以我希望你能多談一些各業務板塊的資本支出(CapEx)展望,也請觸及哪些領域「買」相較於「自建」可能會加速成長。行動策略顯然是其中一個會想到的方向。以及任何與下一步極端垂直整合(例如 Terafab)相關的資本需求想法,或任何支撐未來成長所需的投入?謝謝。

  • Bret Johnsen - Chief Financial Officer

    Bret Johnsen - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. No, I appreciate the question. I think we are very proud of how we have managed capital allocation over the years for sure. And I think we are continuing down that path, right? If you look at it, we have been very efficient to date, and I think we'll continue to be.

    是的。不,我很感謝這個問題。我想我們確實為多年來的資本配置管理感到非常自豪。而且我認為我們會繼續走在這條路上,對吧?如果你看整體,我們迄今為止非常有效率,我想我們也會持續如此。

  • If you look at the rest of this year, to answer specifically on CapEx, I think you should probably think that the next two quarters are very similar to the current quarter from a CapEx level perspective. But I do think as you look longer term -- I think CapEx, really, I think, from our perspective is all CapEx is not the same, right?

    如果看今年剩下的時間,具體回答資本支出(CapEx),我認為你大概可以把接下來兩個季度的 CapEx 水準,視為與本季度非常相近。但我確實認為,從更長期來看——我想 CapEx,從我們的角度,並不是所有 CapEx 都一樣,對吧?

  • What we're seeing right now is a situation where we're able to deploy -- specifically on the AI compute side, we're able to deploy capital in such a way that we're getting less than a one-year payback. It's almost like your capital is becoming almost an item that you would put otherwise in COGS because it's moving so quickly and as far as monetization and moving into revenue. That's different than, I would say, historically on the SpaceX level where we're building assets that are going to benefit us from launch sites for the next couple of decades. And so we certainly manage for optimizing ROI on our capital all the time from that perspective.

    我們現在看到的情況是,我們能夠部署——特別是在 AI 算力這一側——以一種讓回收期不到一年的方式來投入資本。這幾乎就像你的資本支出快到可以被視為原本會放在銷貨成本(COGS)裡的項目,因為它周轉非常快,無論是變現或轉化為營收都很迅速。這不同於我會說,歷史上在 SpaceX 層面,我們是在建造資產,例如發射場,這些資產會在未來幾十年持續帶來效益。因此,從這個角度,我們一直都在管理並優化資本的投資報酬率(ROI)。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • Yes. I'll add a little bit to that. As Bret mentioned, we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year. And it's probably also worth mentioning that our internal projections for reaching $1 trillion in revenue, not ARR, but revenue have moved up from 2031 to 2030.

    是的。我再補充一點。如 Bret 提到的,我們預期在今年 12 月達到 1,000 億美元以上的年經常性收入(ARR)。另外也值得一提的是,我們內部對於達到 1 兆美元營收(不是 ARR,而是營收)的預測,已從 2031 年提前到 2030 年。

  • So prior to the IPO, the financial projections we had were reaching $1 trillion in revenue in 2031. We now expect that to be in 2030. And there's a non-zero chance of that being in 2029.

    所以在 IPO 之前,我們的財務預測是 2031 年達到 1 兆美元營收。我們現在預期會在 2030 年達成。而且在 2029 年達成的機率也不是零。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

    Ronald Epstein,美國銀行。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • Yeah, hey, good evening, everybody. Could you walk through what you learned on Starship launch 13, what was better than expected? What was worse? And then how do we think about this in the journey to kind of rapid reusability, the heat shields and so on and so forth.

    是的,嗨,大家晚上好。你能帶我們回顧一下星艦第 13 次發射你們學到了什麼嗎?哪些比預期更好?哪些更糟?然後我們該如何看待這在邁向快速重複使用的旅程中所代表的意義,例如隔熱瓦(heat shields)等等。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • Sure. So the Yes, actually, Flight 13, I was a little worried about that Flight 13 because think about Apollo 13, things went wrong on that flight. But this flight actually went incredibly well. The heat shield appears to be very robust. The ship is still floating in the ocean, and we expect to recover the ship and bring it back for analysis.

    當然。所以,是的,其實第 13 次飛行,我原本有點擔心,因為想到阿波羅 13 號,那次任務出了問題。但這次飛行實際上進行得非常順利。隔熱盾看起來非常堅固耐用。飛船目前仍漂浮在海面上,我們預期會回收飛船並帶回來做分析。

  • So I would say things look very good. And that's why we -- assuming we receive regulatory approval to do so, we'll attempt to catch the ship with the tower on the next flight which is tentatively scheduled for the end of this month. We expect the cadence of flights to be increasing rapidly. And probably a year from now, we will be doing at least one flight a day, possibly more.

    所以我會說情況看起來非常好。也因此——在我們獲得相關監管核准的前提下——我們會在下一次飛行嘗試用塔架去「接住」飛船;該次飛行暫定在本月底。我們預期飛行頻率會快速提升。而且大概一年後,我們至少會做到每天一次飛行,甚至可能更多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Doug Anmuth, JPMorgan.

    Doug Anmuth,摩根大通。

  • Doug Anmuth - Analyst

    Doug Anmuth - Analyst

  • Thanks so much for taking the questions. Elon, can you elaborate on the key unlocks from leveraging your rockets and satellite expertise just in accelerating the pace of compute build-out?

    非常感謝讓我提問。Elon,你能否詳細說明,運用你們在火箭與衛星方面的專業,對於加速算力建置的節奏,關鍵的解鎖點是什麼?

  • And then totally appreciate the $6.7 billion in incremental compute deals. Can you talk more about just how you expect the supply-demand environment to persist going forward and whether you'll be able to keep this kind of premium pricing for these deals and sustainability. Thanks.

    另外也非常感謝你提到新增 67 億美元的算力交易。你能多談談你預期未來供需環境會如何延續,以及你們是否能維持這類交易的溢價定價與其可持續性嗎?謝謝。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • Sure. Well, as the saying goes, long -- they would say like, this ain't rocket science. Well, actually, rocket science is literally our daily business. And rocket science is idiomatic expression for extreme technological difficulty and there's a reason for it because the thing -- let me tell you what rockets desperately want to do every flight. They desperately want to blow themselves into tiny pieces.

    當然。嗯,俗話說——他們會說,這又不是火箭科學。但其實,火箭科學就是我們每天的本業。而「火箭科學」之所以成為極端技術難度的慣用語,是有原因的,因為火箭——我跟你說火箭每次飛行最想做的是什麼。它們非常想把自己炸成無數小碎片。

  • And -- but then the engineering struggle is to convince the rocket not to blow itself into tiny pieces and actually deliver payload to orbit. But you'll note that some of our competitors do, in fact, blow their rockets up. This is not a reflection on their -- it does not mean they're incapable. In fact, I think our competitors are very smart people. But despite being very smart, their rockets still blow up.

    而——工程上的掙扎,就是要說服火箭不要把自己炸成小碎片,並且真的把酬載送入軌道。但你也會注意到,我們的一些競爭對手確實會把火箭炸掉。這不是對他們的——這不代表他們不行。事實上,我認為我們的競爭對手都是非常聰明的人。但即便非常聰明,他們的火箭仍然會爆炸。

  • So now if you apply a small amount of the engineering skill that goes into making gigantic rockets reach orbit on a regular basis reliably to terrestrial data centers. This is like, frankly, the Yankees -- New York Yankees going in and playing a little league team. And it's kind of ridiculous, frankly. This is like -- the terrestrial data centers are a trivial problem compared to making gigantic reusable rockets and which are launched frequently.

    所以,現在如果你把打造巨型火箭、讓它們能可靠且規律地進入軌道所需的工程能力,拿出一小部分用在地面資料中心上。這就像,坦白說,洋基隊——紐約洋基去打一支少棒隊。老實說有點荒謬。這就像——相較於打造可重複使用、且高頻發射的巨型火箭,地面資料中心是個微不足道的問題。

  • And the Starlink satellites also are like alien-level technology. There's still nothing that compares to our Starlink V2 satellites and our V3 satellites are really more than an order of magnitude better than our V2 satellites. So you take a small percentage of that engineering, apply it to terrestrial data centers and you got an amazing outcome. So that's what we're seeing.

    而 Starlink 衛星也像是外星等級的技術。目前仍沒有任何東西能與我們的 Starlink V2 衛星相比,而我們的 V3 衛星比 V2 衛星好上不只一個數量級。所以你把其中一小部分工程能力用在地面資料中心,就會得到驚人的成果。這就是我們正在看到的。

  • Now from a monetization standpoint, the -- if you say like what's my best guess for monetization per watt of say [Rubens] my guess is it would be somewhere between $30 and $50. So it's just a guess. I'm just -- take a guess as a guess. But what we're obviously -- what we're seeing with AI is that the intelligence per watt is increasing rapidly.

    現在從變現角度來看——如果你問我,例如以每瓦特的變現能力來說,以 [Rubens] 為例,我的最佳猜測大概會落在 30 到 50 美元之間。所以這只是猜測。我只是——把它當作一個猜測。但我們顯然——在 AI 方面看到的是,每瓦特的智慧含量正在快速提升。

  • So that means the usefulness per watt is increasing rapidly. And I think anyone who's a close follower of the AI arena, you start seeing smaller and smaller models do more and more amazing things. There's an argument that we may get to the point where even an H-100 is able to deliver useful AI that's comparable to a human engineer. Based on current trends, I think that's not an impossible outcome.

    這意味著每瓦特的有用性正在快速提升。而我想任何密切關注 AI 領域的人,都開始看到越來越小的模型能做出越來越驚人的事情。有人認為,我們可能會到達一個點:即使是一張 H-100 也能提供可用的 AI,其能力可與人類工程師相當。依照目前趨勢,我認為這不是不可能的結果。

  • So then it's like how useful would that be? I think the usefulness that would be -- is going to be extremely high. I mean, you think of like where was AI 12 months ago? I mean, this was -- 12 months ago would have been August last year. This is -- that would have been before the advent of Claude 4.5, which I think is should be considered one of the milestones and the credit to Anthropic. It was, I would say, a shock to the system was how good Claude 4.5 was.

    所以那就像是:那會有多有用呢?我認為它的實用性——將會非常非常高。我的意思是,你想想看 12 個月前的 AI 在哪裡?也就是說——12 個月前會是去年 8 月。那——那會是在 Claude 4.5 問世之前;我認為那應該被視為其中一個里程碑,也要歸功於 Anthropic。我會說,Claude 4.5 好到令人震撼,簡直是對整個系統的一記衝擊。

  • And that was 10 months ago basically. And if you say, what about an AI two years ago, I think, well, an AI two years ago, feels like something that should be a museum, okay? Where we were like you're not going to believe this, but two years ago, this was AI, this relic. So I think by the end of next year, it's not clear to me that there's anything that digital at least that AI won't be able to do based on the current rate of improvement.

    而那基本上是 10 個月前的事。如果你說,那兩年前的 AI 呢?我想,嗯,兩年前的 AI 感覺就像應該放進博物館的東西,好嗎?就像我們會說:你不會相信,但兩年前這就是 AI,這個遺物。所以我認為到明年年底,以目前的改進速度來看,至少在數位領域,AI 幾乎沒有什麼做不到的事,這點對我來說並不明確有任何例外。

  • Then look at the rate at which logic and memory is being produced. And one must always considered a limiting factor here. Limiting factor currently is memory. The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now normally, that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry. But ask yourself, is the demand increasing by 20% a year. No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher. So if you've got demand increasing much faster than supply, then Economics 101 would suggest that the price increases, it does not decrease.

    再看看邏輯與記憶體產出的速度。而且這裡必須始終把限制因素納入考量。目前的限制因素是記憶體。記憶體的產出每年大約增加 20%。通常來說,對任何大型、成熟產業而言,這都會是非常快、非常驚人的速度。但你問問自己,需求也是每年增加 20% 嗎?不是,需求是每年增加 200%,甚至可能更高。所以如果需求成長遠快於供給,那麼《經濟學 101》會告訴你:價格會上升,而不是下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

    Edison Yu,德意志銀行。

  • Edison Yu - Analyst

    Edison Yu - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking our question. I wanted to come back on the comment about the $100 billion in ARR. Is there any way you can unpack that a little bit and perhaps kind of what it takes to get there?

    謝謝讓我們提問。我想回到你提到的 1,000 億美元 ARR(年度經常性收入)的評論。你能否再多拆解一下,或許談談要達到那個目標需要什麼?

  • And then in relation to that, Elon, I know you mentioned you pulled the revenue target forward by a year. Can you maybe call out maybe a few things that gave you this extra confidence? Thank you.

    然後與此相關,Elon,我知道你提到你把營收目標提前了一年。你能否點出幾個讓你更有信心的因素?謝謝。

  • Bret Johnsen - Chief Financial Officer

    Bret Johnsen - Chief Financial Officer

  • Well, on the unpacking, I think the key there is it's really growth in all three of the business segments. But the biggest piece is -- and we already talked about additional business we've already closed in the first couple of weeks of July on the AI cloud services side. But certainly, as you know, we've already announced some previous deals with Google and Anthropic that start to ramp either later this quarter or in October.

    關於拆解,我認為關鍵在於三個業務板塊的全面成長。但最大的一塊是——而且我們已經談過——在 7 月前兩週,我們在 AI 雲端服務這一側已經簽下了額外的業務。當然,如你所知,我們也已經宣布了一些先前與 Google 和 Anthropic 的交易,這些交易會在本季稍晚或 10 月開始放量。

  • And so there's a lot of momentum from that side of the business as well as we're seeing strength in our own models, and cursor coming into the fold as well. So it's really all three segments that are driving that, but the cloud services piece being the largest contributor of that piece.

    因此,那一側業務動能很強;同時我們也看到自家模型的強勢表現,cursor 也納入體系。所以其實是三個板塊共同推動,但其中雲端服務這一塊是最大的貢獻來源。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • Yes, to be clear, the $100 billion ARR in December is not a question mark. That's what we'd achieve if we basically did nothing. So like -- so I think it may be higher than that. Probably will be higher than that. The -- I think in terms of the relative percentage of breakdown of like what revenue generates [what], I think the breakdown is probably similar to what we shared pre-IPO. It's just happening a year sooner.

    是的,說清楚一點,12 月的 1,000 億美元 ARR 不是問號。那是我們基本上什麼都不做也會達到的數字。所以——我認為可能會高於那個數字。很可能會高於那個數字。至於像是各項營收來源的相對占比,我認為拆分大概會與我們在 IPO 前分享的類似。只是它提前一年發生。

  • And I will go back to what I said and what Gwynne and Bret mentioned earlier, which is that we do expect a very rapid increase in revenue from Starlink communications from the V3 satellite. Because like I said, it's more than 10 times the capability of the V2 satellite and we'll be launching 10 times as many, and we have the direct to sell constellation going up as well. So if you were looking at the sort of historical growth of Starlink based on V2, but we have a step change, a massive step change happening with the V3 satellite.

    我再回到我說過、以及 Gwynne 和 Bret 先前提到的:我們確實預期來自 V3 衛星的 Starlink 通訊營收會非常快速地增加。因為如我所說,它的能力是 V2 衛星的 10 倍以上,而我們也會發射 10 倍的數量,另外我們也會部署 direct to sell 星座。所以如果你是用 V2 的歷史成長來看 Starlink,那我們現在有一個階躍式變化——一個巨大的階躍式變化——將隨著 V3 衛星發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Hodulik, UBS.

    John Hodulik,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • John Hodulik - Analyst

    John Hodulik - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Two things. First, Elon, just following up on that comment on Starlink Mobile. When do you expect to start launching the V2s. Can you talk about your appetite for additional spectrum after the EchoStar deal? And then just how big do you think the opportunity is in mobile. And if you could compare that to the broadband business, that would be great.

    很好。謝謝。兩點。第一,Elon,延續你剛才對 Starlink Mobile 的評論。你預期何時開始發射 V2?在 EchoStar 交易之後,你能談談你對額外頻譜的需求意願嗎?另外,你認為行動通訊的機會有多大?如果你能把它和寬頻業務做個比較就更好了。

  • And then secondly, just a quick follow-up on the compute. It looks like you're going to -- you have a big ramp in compute coming in 2027. How should we think of that capacity being leased versus used for -- to train Grok? I guess in other words, how much of that has to be withheld to train Grok versus that can be leased out to third parties?

    第二個是關於算力的快速追問。看起來你們在 2027 年會有一個很大的算力爬坡。我們應該如何看待那部分產能:是出租,還是用於——用來訓練 Grok?換句話說,其中有多少必須保留用來訓練 Grok,又有多少可以租給第三方?

  • Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • I'll go ahead and take the Starlink mobile questions, John. We're going to start flying the next-generation Starlink mobile satellite, which is confusing. It's actually the second version as opposed to the V3, which is the broadband next-generation broadband satellite. We're going to start flying those next year.

    John,我先來回答 Starlink 行動通訊的問題。我們將開始發射下一代 Starlink 行動通訊衛星,這裡有點容易混淆。它其實是第二個版本,而不是 V3;V3 是下一代寬頻衛星。我們會在明年開始發射這些衛星。

  • And just so you understand currently the system that we're operating uses about 5 megahertz of bandwidth. And we operate that through local telco providers. We have 65 megahertz of bandwidth available to us through the EchoStar spectrum which gives massive increase in capability.

    另外讓你了解一下,目前我們運行的系統大約使用 5 兆赫的頻寬。我們是透過當地電信業者來運作。透過 EchoStar 的頻譜,我們可用的頻寬有 65 兆赫,這會帶來能力的大幅提升。

  • Another way to look at it is we were also probably 10 times the number of satellites. So we -- simplifying, you could look at the the Starlink Mobile leveraging this -- the next-generation satellite and the EchoStar spectrum is being 100 times better, [10x10] better than what we've got right now.

    換個角度看,我們也會有大概 10 倍數量的衛星。所以——簡化來說,你可以把採用下一代衛星加上 EchoStar 頻譜的 Starlink Mobile,看成比我們目前的狀態好上 100 倍,[10x10] 比現在好得多。

  • And it's a pretty decent service. You can do voice and video calls over signal and WhatsApp. So we anticipate really strong uptake of that capability. As far as revenue, like I'm just going to take a very high level kind of top-down. The Big three in the United States, AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, roughly between them $600 billion a year, and I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better. We will eliminate dead zones, leveraging the -- basically the satellites in orbit.

    而且這已經是一個相當不錯的服務。你可以透過 Signal 和 WhatsApp 進行語音與視訊通話。所以我們預期這項能力會有非常強勁的採用。至於營收,我就用非常高層次、由上而下的方式來看。美國三大業者 AT&T、Verizon 和 T-Mobile,加起來一年大約 6,000 億美元;我預期我們能夠吸引他們相當多的客戶,因為我認為我們的服務會更好。我們將利用——基本上是利用在軌衛星——消除訊號死角。

  • It will be better during any sort of natural disaster because surprisingly, even though space movies make space looks super dangerous, it is a pretty quiescent environment. And so I'm quite excited about Starlink mobile going forward. We will start to fly the satellites next year, and we will start providing service end of next year.

    在任何自然災害期間,它也會更好;因為令人意外的是,儘管太空電影把太空描繪得非常危險,但它其實是一個相當平靜的環境。所以我對 Starlink 行動通訊的未來非常興奮。我們明年會開始發射衛星,並在明年年底開始提供服務。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • I guess I should elaborate on -- we obviously have like more than one question being asked here. But the -- obviously, if somebody is trying to create a financial model, some of these questions are -- you have to plug in some numbers here.

    我想我應該再補充一下——顯然這裡被問的不只一個問題。但是——很明顯,如果有人想建立財務模型,其中一些問題——你必須在這裡代入一些數字。

  • So for Grok training, we do expect the percentage of compute that we use internally for Grok training to decrease over time and to have far more of the compute used for inference or to -- for training and inference compute to others. So I would expect maybe 10% of our compute to be used for Grok training, something like that.

    因此,就 Grok 訓練而言,我們確實預期我們內部用於 Grok 訓練的算力占比會隨時間下降,並且會有更多算力用於推理,或是——把訓練與推理的算力提供給其他方。所以我預期大概只有 10% 的算力會用於 Grok 訓練,差不多是這樣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kutgun Maral, Evercore ISI

    Kutgun Maral,Evercore ISI

  • Kutgun Maral - Equity Analyst

    Kutgun Maral - Equity Analyst

  • Good afternoon, and thanks for taking the question. I had a follow-up on Starlink mobile and your ambitions in the US market in particular. I think a lot of us are trying to better understand what a US direct-to-consumer service could look like to become a true fourth US carrier, would imply well over $100 billion of mobile CapEx over time, much of auction spectrum and greenfield infrastructure. So how are you weighing that potential build plan against the MVNO or acquisition path? And what's your internal base case on how far you'll take this ambition? Or is this all a little bit too premature at this point? Thank you.

    下午好,謝謝讓我提問。我想追問一下 Starlink 行動服務,特別是你們在美國市場的企圖心。我想我們很多人都在試著更了解:若要在美國推出直接面向消費者(DTC)的服務、成為真正的美國第四大電信業者,長期而言可能意味著超過 1,000 億美元的行動資本支出(CapEx),其中很大一部分會用在頻譜拍賣與綠地(greenfield)基礎建設。那麼你們如何在這種潛在的建設計畫,與走 MVNO 或併購路徑之間做權衡?你們內部的基本情境(base case)是會把這個企圖推進到什麼程度?還是說現階段談這些都還有點太早?謝謝。

  • Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • The spectrum that we purchased from EchoStar does have terrestrial components. So we definitely intend to build out terrestrial -- the terrestrial component. So you will have not only the capacity from the satellites themselves, but you will have a build-out of the terrestrial -- basically the hardware and systems necessary to make a true mobile service exactly what you want it to be.

    我們從 EchoStar 購買的頻譜確實包含地面(terrestrial)組成部分。所以我們肯定打算建置地面——也就是地面組成部分。因此你不僅會有來自衛星本身的容量,還會有地面端的建置——基本上是讓真正的行動服務能如你所期望那樣運作所需的硬體與系統。

  • I'm not going to talk about the CapEx for that. It's a little -- well, I don't want to say it's immature. I'm just going to say, I'm not going to talk about the CapEx for that right now. But let's talk a little -- let me give a little hint, and that is you could put a base station, a cellular base station on the -- basically the gear that holds a Starlink broadband dish. So you can have kind of these little femtocells around the country, and you deploy that as you need it.

    我不打算談那部分的資本支出(CapEx)。這有點——嗯,我不想說它還不成熟。我只是想說,我現在不會談那部分的 CapEx。但稍微談一下——我給一點提示:你可以把一個基地台、蜂巢式基地台,裝在——基本上就是固定 Starlink 寬頻天線碟的那套設備上。所以你可以在全國各地布建這種小型 femtocell,並依需求部署。

  • You don't have to necessarily spend many billions of dollars in low-band spectrum all upfront before you deploy your system. So that's why I don't want to talk about the CapEx for building out the terrestrial because we have a lot of really kind of great and new ideas for how we're going to do that. And I think it will be quite CapEx efficient.

    你不一定需要在部署系統之前,就先一次性投入數十億美元去買低頻段(low-band)頻譜。所以這也是我不想談地面端建置 CapEx 的原因,因為我們對於如何做這件事有很多非常棒、而且很新的想法。我認為它會相當具資本效率(CapEx efficient)。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • Yes. That point is probably worth just a few more words, which is that -- because this is quite an important point. Instead of having to deploy these very expensive and difficult to locate large cellular base stations, we feel reasonably confident that we can deploy a large number of sort of small stations essentially, they're really just Starlink dishes that also provide connectivity in the mobile spectrum bands and have them be all over the place.

    是的。這點可能值得再多說幾句,因為——這其實是個相當重要的點。我們不必部署那些非常昂貴、而且很難選址的大型蜂巢式基地台;我們相當有信心可以部署大量的小型站點,本質上它們其實就是 Starlink 天線碟,同時也能在行動頻譜頻段提供連線,並讓它們遍布各處。

  • And the Starlink antennas are located in on the roofs of houses and businesses. So they're -- it's -- that they've got sort of a clear view to -- for providing connectivity directly to cell phones on the ground. And in fact, providing connectivity that is, we think, probably better and higher bandwidth than what is currently available from cellular providers. This is an important point.

    而 Starlink 天線是設置在住家與企業的屋頂上。所以它們——也就是說,它們有相對清晰的視野——可以直接為地面上的手機提供連線。而且事實上,我們認為所提供的連線可能比目前行動電信業者所能提供的更好、頻寬更高。這是一個重要的點。

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. With the remaining time, we would like to cover some of the questions from individual shareholders. I will read them aloud.

    謝謝。接下來在剩餘時間,我們想回答一些個人股東的提問。我會把問題唸出來。

  • We got a lot of questions on the progress for Starship Human Landing system. Can we provide any updates?

    我們收到很多關於 Starship 人類登月系統(Human Landing System)的進展問題。我們可以提供任何更新嗎?

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • For Starship -- well, obviously, we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. But we are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.

    關於 Starship——嗯,顯然在讓任何人上船之前,我們需要先讓 Starship 對衛星任務達到超高可靠度。但我們預期會有非常高的發射頻率,因此能很快達到人類所需的安全水準,可能在明年年底前。

  • Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

    Gwynne Shotwell - President, Chief Operating Officer, Director

  • As far as the milestones go, propel and transfer in orbit is critical to our -- both our internal SpaceX as well as our HLS ambitions. Artemis 3 mission is next year. That's where we will dock with the Orion spacecraft. We will follow that up with a direct to lunar cargo mission on crude. And then we want to put boots on the ground, boots on the moon in 2028.

    就里程碑而言,軌道內推進與轉移(propel and transfer in orbit)對我們——不論是 SpaceX 內部目標或 HLS 目標——都至關重要。Artemis 3 任務在明年。那時我們會與 Orion 太空船對接。接著我們會進行一次直接前往月球的貨運任務,先以較粗略(crude)的方式執行。然後我們希望在 2028 年讓人類登月——把靴子踏上月球。

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • For the cursor acquisition, there were several questions asking about the combined product road map for the companies once it closes.

    關於收購 Cursor,有幾個問題在問交易完成後兩家公司合併的產品路線圖。

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • I think we'll leave that to -- we'll probably make some announcement or discussion of that outside of the earnings call. but we don't want to jump the gun on regulators for the -- closing the acquisition. So we're trying to get the acquisition close as quickly as possible. I think we're pretty close to that. But we have to be vary of sort of jumping the gun on regulatory closures.

    我想我們會把這留到——可能在財報電話會議之外再做一些公告或討論;但我們不想在監管機關核准、完成併購交割之前就操之過急。所以我們正努力讓併購盡快完成交割。我想我們已經相當接近了。但我們必須小心,不要在監管完成結案前就過早行動。

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • Next question from the individual shareholders. Once you start launching broadband V3 satellites, how quickly will they translate into improved Starlink service?

    下一個來自個人股東的問題。一旦你們開始發射寬頻 V3 衛星,它們多快會轉化為 Starlink 服務的改善?

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • So we need some critical mass of V3 satellites, probably at least on the order of about 1,000. But probably that's -- I mean, approximately, second quarter next year would be, I think, where we get to that point.

    我們需要一定的 V3 衛星臨界規模,可能至少要到約 1,000 顆的量級。不過大概——我的意思是,約在明年第二季左右,我認為就會達到那個點。

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • And our last question, is the heat shield the hardest remaining problem for Starship?

    我們最後一個問題是:隔熱罩(heat shield)是否是 Starship 目前最難的剩餘問題?

  • Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

    Elon Musk - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Technology Officer

  • Look, I don't want to jinx it or anything, but I think I would consider the heat shield problem solved at this point. We want to take a close look at the ship that is currently floating the ocean. But all indications from data and our visual inspection suggests that the -- that we have -- we have solved the heat shield problem, which is arguably the single biggest problem. That doesn't mean we won't make improvements to the heat shield. Of course, we'll make -- we'll continue to make improvements to the heat shield, but I would say that we do not see any technical obstacles at this point to achieving full and rapid reusability.

    你看,我不想烏鴉嘴或怎樣,但我認為到目前為止,隔熱罩問題可以算是已經解決了。我們想仔細檢視目前仍漂浮在海上的那艘飛船。但從數據與我們的目視檢查來看,各種跡象都顯示——我們已經——我們已經解決了隔熱罩問題,而這可以說是單一最大的問題。這不代表我們不會再改進隔熱罩。當然,我們會——我們會持續改進隔熱罩,但我會說,就目前而言,我們看不到任何技術障礙會阻礙我們達成完全且快速的可重複使用(full and rapid reusability)。

  • Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

    Andrea Williams - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. This concludes today's call. You can reach us at ir.spaceax.com, and we will see you next quarter. Cheers.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。你可以透過 ir.spaceax.com 聯絡我們,我們下季再見。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。