台積電 ADR (TSM) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

台積電投資者關係總監蘇炳添主持了2025年第二季財報發布會,討論了財務亮點、第三季度業績指引和未來規劃。台積電報告稱,受人工智慧和高效能運算需求推動,營收強勁成長。該公司計劃在美國投資先進半導體製造,並在全球擴張。公司旨在維持技術領先地位,並支持全球積體電路產業發展。分析師對毛利率、匯率影響和產能擴張提出了質疑,但台積電對維持利潤率和調整價格充滿信心。

台積電正面臨先進製程節點的高需求,並努力滿足這項需求,同時維持穩定的資本支出指引。他們專注於開發特殊技術和先進封裝解決方案,以滿足客戶需求。台積電正在評估半導體產業的機遇,包括人形機器人在醫療產業的潛在作用。該公司的成長策略以客戶需求和未來業務機會為驅動力,重點關注用於人工智慧應用的尖端過程節點和海外擴張計劃。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • (spoken in foreign language)

    (用外語說)

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference and conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

    大家下午好,歡迎參加台積電2025年第二季財報發表會及電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監、今天的主持人蘇傑夫。

  • Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you're joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

    今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播,您也可以在該網站上下載收益發佈資料。如果您透過電話會議加入我們,您的撥入線路將處於只聽模式。

  • The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2025, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2025. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly company's key messages. Then we will open both the floor and the line for the question-and-answer session.

    今天的活動形式如下。首先,台積電資深副總裁兼財務長黃溫德爾先生將總結我們2025年第二季的營運情況,然後介紹我們對2025年第三季的指導。隨後,黃先生將與台積電董事長兼執行長魏哲家博士共同傳達公司重要訊息。然後我們將開放發言權和熱線,進行問答環節。

  • As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears on our press release.

    像往常一樣,我想提醒大家,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

  • And now, I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current-quarter guidance.

    現在,我想把麥克風交給台積電財務長黃文德爾先生,請他總結營運情況並發布本季業績指引。

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter 2025. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter of 2025.

    謝謝你,傑夫。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從 2025 年第二季的財務亮點開始。之後,我將提供2025年第三季的指導。

  • Second-quarter revenue increased 11.3% sequentially in NT as our business was supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate. In US dollar term, revenue increased 17.8% sequentially to $30.1 billion and exceeded our second-quarter guidance.

    由於我們業務受到業界領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁需求支撐,但不利的外匯匯率部分抵消了這一增長,因此第二季度營收環比增長 11.3%。以美元計算,營收季增 17.8%,達到 301 億美元,超過了我們第二季的預期。

  • Gross margin decreased 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 58.6%, primarily due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and margin dilution from our overseas fabs, partially balanced by higher capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts. Operating margin increased 1.1 percentage points sequentially to 49.6%. Overall, our second-quarter EPS was TWD15.36, up 60.7% year over year; and ROE was 34.8%.

    毛利率較上月下降 0.2 個百分點至 58.6%,主要由於不利的匯率和海外晶圓廠的利潤率稀釋,但產能利用率提高和成本改進力度有所抵銷。營業利益率較上季成長1.1個百分點,達到49.6%。整體而言,我們第二季每股收益為新台幣15.36元,較去年同期成長60.7%;股本回報率為34.8%。

  • Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3-nanometer process technology contributed 24% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 36% and 14%, respectively. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 74% of wafer revenue.

    現在讓我們來看看按技術劃分的收入。 3 奈米製程技術在第二季度貢獻了 24% 的晶圓收入,而 5 奈米和 7 奈米分別佔 36% 和 14%。先進技術(定義為 7 奈米及以下)佔晶圓收入的 74%。

  • Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 14% quarter over quarter to account for 60% of our second-quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 7% to account for 27%. IoT increased 14% to account for 5%. Automotive stayed flat and accounted for 5%. And DCE increased 30% to account for 1%.

    接下來討論平台的所得貢獻。HPC 環比成長 14%,占我們第二季營收的 60%。智慧型手機成長7%,佔27%。物聯網成長14%,佔5%。汽車業保持平穩,佔5%。其中大商所上漲30%,佔比達1%。

  • Moving on balance sheet, we ended the second quarter cash and marketable securities of TWD2.6 trillion, or USD90 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities decreased by TWD22 billion quarter over quarter, mainly due to the decrease of TWD38 billion in accrued liabilities and others. The decrease in accrued liabilities and others was mainly due to the payment of income tax.

    從資產負債表來看,我們第二季末的現金和有價證券總額為 2.6 兆新台幣,即 900 億美元。負債方面,流動負債較上季減少220億元,主要由於應計負債及其他減少380億元。預計負債及其他減少主要由於支付所得稅所致。

  • On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 5 days to 23 days. The decrease in accounts receivable was mainly due to NT dollar appreciation as almost all of our accounts receivable are in US dollars. Days of inventory decreased 7 days to 76 days, primarily due to higher N3 and N5 wafer shipments.

    財務比率方面,應收帳款週轉天數減少5天至23天。應收帳款減少主要是因為新台幣升值,因為我們幾乎所有的應收帳款都是以美元計價的。庫存天數減少 7 天至 76 天,主要是由於 N3 和 N5 晶圓出貨量增加。

  • Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the second quarter, we generated about TWD497 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD297 billion in CapEx, and distributed TWD117 billion for third quarter '24 cash dividend.

    關於現金流和資本支出,在第二季度,我們產生了約 4,970 億新台幣的經營現金,支出了 2,970 億新台幣的資本支出,並派發了 1,170 億新台幣的 24 年第三季度現金股息。

  • Taking the unfavorable exchange rate into consideration, our cash balance decreased TWD30.3 billion to TWD2.36 trillion at the end of the quarter. In US dollar terms, our second-quarter capital expenditures totaled $9.6 billion.

    若計入不利的匯率因素,本季末我們的現金餘額減少了303億新台幣,至2.36兆新台幣。以美元計算,我們第二季的資本支出總計 96 億美元。

  • I've finish my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current-quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between USD31.8 billion and USD33 billion, which represents an 8% sequential increase, or a 38% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD1 to TWD29, gross margin is expected to be between 55.5% and 57.5%; operating margin between 45.5% and 47.5%. In addition, we maintain our 2025 capital budget to be between USD38 billion and USD42 billion.

    我已經完成了我的財務總結。現在讓我們來看看本季的指導。根據目前的業務前景,我們預計第三季營收將在 318 億美元至 330 億美元之間,環比成長 8%,年成長 38%。以1美元兌29新台幣的匯率假設計算,毛利率預計介於55.5%至57.5%之間;營業利潤率預計介於45.5%至47.5%之間。此外,我們將 2025 年的資本預算維持在 380 億美元至 420 億美元之間。

  • This concludes my financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our second-quarter '25 and third-quarter '25 profitability. Compared to first quarter, our second-quarter gross margin slightly decreased by 20 basis points sequentially to 58.6%. This was primarily due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and margin dilution from our overseas fabs, partially offset by higher-than-expected overall capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts.

    我的財務報告到此結束。現在讓我來談談我們的關鍵訊息。我將首先談談我們 2025 年第二季和第三季的獲利能力。與第一季相比,我們第二季的毛利率較上季小幅下降20個基點至58.6%。這主要是由於不利的外匯匯率和我們海外晶圓廠的利潤率稀釋,但被高於預期的整體產能利用率和成本改進努力部分抵消。

  • Compared to the first quarter foreign exchange rate of $1 to TWD32.88, the actual second-quarter exchange rate was $1 to TWD31.05. This created about 220 basis points margin headwind to our actual second-quarter gross margin. We also experienced slightly more than 100 basis points impact, mainly as the margin dilution from our Arizona fab started to kick in.

    與第一季1美元兌32.88新台幣的匯率相比,第二季的實際匯率為1美元兌31.05新台幣。這給我們第二季的實質毛利率造成了約220個基點的利潤率阻力。我們也經歷了略高於 100 個基點的影響,主要是因為我們亞利桑那州工廠的利潤率開始下降。

  • We have just guided our third-quarter gross margin to decrease by 210 basis points to 56.5% at the midpoint, primarily due to the continued unfavorable foreign exchange rate and more pronounced dilution from overseas fabs, as we ramp up further in Kumamoto and Arizona. We continue to forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of our overseas fabs in the next five years, starting from 2025, to be between 2% to 3% every year in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages.

    我們剛剛預計第三季毛利率將下降 210 個基點至 56.5%,這主要是由於持續不利的外匯匯率以及海外晶圓廠的更明顯稀釋(因為我們在熊本和亞利桑那州的產能進一步擴大)。我們繼續預測,從 2025 年開始的未來五年內,隨著海外晶圓廠產能增加,毛利率將有所下降,初期每年約為 2% 至 3%,後期將擴大至 3% 至 4%。

  • Despite the higher cost of overseas fabs, we will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will also continue to work closely with our customers and suppliers to manage the impact.

    儘管海外晶圓廠的成本較高,但我們將利用我們在亞利桑那州不斷擴大的規模,並致力於改善營運成本結構。我們也將繼續與客戶和供應商密切合作,以控制影響。

  • Overall, with our fundamental competitive advantages of manufacturing technology leadership and large-scale production base, we expect TSMC to be the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturer in every region that we operate.

    總體而言,憑藉製造技術領先地位和大規模生產基地的根本競爭優勢,我們預計台積電將成為我們營運的每個地區最高效、最具成本效益的製造商。

  • Now, let me make some comments on the impact of foreign exchange rate on TSMC's revenue and profitability. NT dollar is the reporting currency of our financial statements. Nearly all of our revenue is in US dollars, while about 75% of cost of goods sold is in NT. Therefore, fluctuations in the exchange rate between US dollar and NT will have a sizable impact to our reported revenue and gross profit margin.

    現在,我來就匯率對台積電營收和獲利的影響發表一些評論。新台幣為本公司財務報表的報告貨幣。我們幾乎所有的收入都是以美元計算的,而約 75% 的銷售成本是以新台幣計算的。因此,美元與新台幣之間的匯率波動將對我們的報告收入和毛利率產生相當大的影響。

  • The sensitivity of the revenue to dollar NT exchange rate is nearly 100%. That is, every 1% appreciation of NT against US dollars will reduce our reported NT revenue by 1%. The sensitivity of our gross margin to the same 1% exchange rate change is about 40 basis points. That is, if NT appreciates 1 % against the dollar, our gross margin will come down by about 40 basis points.

    該項收入對美元兌新台幣匯率的敏感度接近100%。也就是說,新台幣兌美元每公升值1%,我們的報告新台幣收入就會減少1%。我們的毛利率對同樣1%的匯率變動的敏感度約為40個基點。也就是說,如果新台幣兌美元升值1%,我們的毛利率就會下降40個基點左右。

  • Compared with our second-quarter exchange rate guidance of $1 to TWD32.5 provided on April 17, the NT dollar has appreciated by an average of about 4.4% sequentially, which negatively impacted our second-quarter revenue by about 4.4% in NT and our gross margin by about 180 basis points. For third quarter of '25, based on the current exchange rate of $1 to TWD29, the average NT dollar will appreciate by another 6.6% sequentially, which will negatively impact our third-quarter revenue by 6.6% in NT and reduce our gross margin by about 260 basis points.

    與我們4月17日提供的第二季匯率指引1美元兌32.5新台幣相比,新台幣較上季平均升值約4.4%,對我們第二季新台幣營收造成約4.4%的負面影響,毛利率也下降約180個基點。就25年第三季而言,以目前1美元兌29新台幣的匯率計算,新台幣平均匯率將比上一季再升值6.6%,這將對我們第三季新台幣營收造成6.6%的負面影響,並使我們的毛利率降低約260個基點。

  • As a reminder, six factors determine TSMC profitability: leadership technology development and ramp-up; pricing; capacity utilization; cost reduction; technology mix; and foreign exchange rate, which is not in our control. When the foreign exchange rate is unfavorable as it is currently, we will focus on the fundamentals of our business and lean on the other five factors to manage through it, and we have successfully done in the past. Thus, even with the unfavorable foreign exchange rate, we believe a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher remains well achievable.

    提醒一下,六個因素決定了台積電的獲利能力:領導技術開發和提升;定價;產能利用率;成本降低;技術組合;以及外匯匯率,這是我們無法控制的。當匯率像現在這樣不利時,我們將專注於業務基本面,並依靠其他五個因素來應對,過去我們已經成功做到了。因此,即使匯率不利,我們相信 53% 及以上的長期毛利率仍然是可以實現的。

  • Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

    現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of USD30.1 billion, above our guidance in US dollar term, mainly due to continued robust AI and HPC-related demand.

    謝謝你,溫德爾。大家下午好。首先,讓我先談談我們近期的需求前景。我們第二季的營收為 301 億美元,高於我們以美元計算的預期,這主要得益於人工智慧和 HPC 相關需求的持續強勁。

  • Moving into the third-quarter 2025, we expect our business in the third quarter to be driven by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies.

    進入 2025 年第三季度,我們預計第三季的業務將受到對我們尖端製程技術的強勁需求的推動。

  • Looking to second half of 2025, we have not seen any change in our customers' behavior so far. However, we understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially on consumer-related and the price-sensitive market segment.

    展望 2025 年下半年,到目前為止我們還沒有看到客戶行為有任何變化。然而,我們了解關稅政策的潛在影響存在不確定性和風險,特別是對與消費者相關和價格敏感的市場領域。

  • While we observe rebate program in China stimulating some near-term demand upside, we believe this is short term in nature and continue to expect a mild recovery in overall non-AI market segment in 2025. Having said that, we believe the demand for semiconductor is very fundamental and will continue to be robust.

    雖然我們觀察到中國的返利計畫刺激了一些短期需求上升,但我們認為這只是短期現象,並繼續預期 2025 年整體非人工智慧市場將出現溫和復甦。話雖如此,我們相信對半導體的需求非常重要,並將繼續保持強勁。

  • Recent developments are also positive to AI's long-term demand outlook. The explosive growth in token volume demonstrates increasing AI model usage and adoption, which means more and more computation is needed, leading to more leading-edge silicon demand. We also see AI demand continuing to be strong, including the rising demand from sovereign AI. Therefore, we now expect our full-year 2025 revenue to increase by around 30 % in US dollar term, supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies underpinned by growth in our HPC platform.

    最近的發展也對人工智慧的長期需求前景有利。代幣數量的爆炸性增長表明人工智慧模型的使用和採用不斷增加,這意味著需要越來越多的計算,從而導致對尖端矽片的需求增加。我們也看到人工智慧需求持續強勁,包括來自主權人工智慧的需求不斷增長。因此,我們現在預計,2025 年全年營收將以美元計算成長約 30%,這得益於我們業界領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁需求,而這又得益於我們 HPC 平台的成長。

  • Amidst the uncertainties, we will remain mindful of the potential tariff-related impact and be prudent in our business planning going into second-half 2025 and 2026, while continuing to invest for the future megatrend. We are also focused on the fundamentals of our business: technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, and customer trust, to further strengthen our competitive position.

    面對不確定性,我們將繼續關注與關稅相關的潛在影響,並謹慎制定 2025 年下半年和 2026 年的業務規劃,同時繼續為未來的大趨勢進行投資。我們也專注於業務的基礎:技術領先、製造卓越和客戶信任,以進一步加強我們的競爭地位。

  • Next, let me talk about the TSMC's global manufacturing footprint update. All our overseas decisions are based on customer needs, as they value some geographic flexibility, and a necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value for our shareholders.

    接下來我來談談台積電全球製造佈局的更新。我們所有的海外決策都是基於客戶的需求,因為他們重視一定的地理彈性和必要的政府支援。這也是為了實現股東價值的最大化。

  • With the strong collaboration and support from our leading US customers and the US federal, state, and city government, we announced our intention to invest a total of USD165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the United States. The expansion includes plans for six advanced wafer manufacturing fabs in Arizona, two advanced packaging fabs, and a major R&D center to support the strong multi-year demand from our customers.

    在我們領先的美國客戶以及美國聯邦、州和市政府的大力配合和支持下,我們宣布有意在美國先進半導體製造業投資總計1,650億美元。此次擴建計畫包括在亞利桑那州建立六家先進的晶圓製造廠、兩家先進的封裝廠以及一個大型研發中心,以滿足客戶多年的強勁需求。

  • Our first fab in Arizona has already successfully entered high volume production in 4Q 2024, utilizing N4 process technology with a yield comparable to our fabs in Taiwan. The construction of our second fab, which will utilize 3-nanometer process technology, is already complete. We are seeing strong interest from our leading US customers and are working on speeding up the volume production schedule by several quarters to support their need.

    我們位於亞利桑那州的第一家晶圓廠已於 2024 年第四季成功實現大量生產,採用 N4 製程技術,產量與我們在台灣的晶圓廠相當。我們第二座晶圓廠的建造已經完成,該晶圓廠將採用 3 奈米製程技術。我們看到美國主要客戶的濃厚興趣,並正在努力將批量生產計劃加快幾個季度以滿足他們的需求。

  • Construction of our third fab, which will utilize 2-nanometer and the A16 process technologies, has already begun, and we are looking to speeding up the production schedule as well, based on the strong AI-related demand from our customers. Our fourth fab will utilize N2 and the A16 process technologies. And our fifth and sixth fabs will use even more advanced technologies. The construction and ramp schedules for those fabs will be based on our customers' need.

    我們的第三座晶圓廠已開始建設,該晶圓廠將採用 2 奈米和 A16 製程技術,並且基於客戶對 AI 的強勁需求,我們也希望加快生產進度。我們的第四座晶圓廠將採用 N2 和 A16 製程技術。我們的第五和第六座晶圓廠將採用更先進的技術。這些工廠的建設和投產計劃將根據我們客戶的需求而定。

  • Our expansion plans will enable TSMC to scale up to a GIGAFAB cluster in Arizona to support the needs of our leading-edge customers in smartphone, AI, and HPC applications. We also plan to build two new advanced packaging facilities and establish an R&D center to complete the AI supply chain.

    我們的擴張計劃將使台積電能夠擴展到亞利桑那州的 GIGAFAB 集群,以支援我們在智慧型手機、人工智慧和 HPC 應用領域的前沿客戶的需求。我們還計劃建造兩個新的先進封裝設施並建立一個研發中心以完善AI供應鏈。

  • After completion, around 30% of our 2-nanometer and more advanced capacity will be located in Arizona, creating an independent leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing cluster in the US. Thus, TSMC work continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers' success. We will also remain a key partner and enabler of the US semiconductor industry.

    工程建成後,我們2奈米及以上製程的產能約30%將位於亞利桑那州,從而在美國打造一個獨立的尖端半導體製造集群。因此,台積電的工作在幫助我們的客戶取得成功方面繼續發揮關鍵且不可或缺的作用。我們也將繼續成為美國半導體產業的重要合作夥伴和推動者。

  • Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan Central, Prefecture, and local governments, our first specialty technology fab in Kumamoto has already started volume production in late 2024 with very good yield.

    其次,在日本,由於日本中央政府、都道府縣和地方政府的大力支持,我們位於熊本的第一家特種技術工廠已於2024年底開始批量生產,並且產量非常好。

  • The construction of our second specialty fab is scheduled to start later this year, subject to the readiness of the local infrastructure. The ramp schedule will be based on our customers' need and market conditions.

    我們的第二家專業工廠計劃於今年稍後開始建設,但要視當地基礎設施的準備情況而定。生產進度計畫將根據客戶需求和市場情況而定。

  • In Europe, we have received strong commitment from the European Commission and the German federal, state, and city governments and are progressing smoothly with our plans to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany. The ramp schedule will also base on our customers' needs and market conditions.

    在歐洲,我們得到了歐盟委員會以及德國聯邦、州和市政府的堅定承諾,在德國德勒斯登建造專業技術工廠的計畫進展順利。生產進度計畫也將根據客戶需求和市場情況而定。

  • In Taiwan, with support from the Taiwan government, we plan to build 11 wafer manufacturing fabs and 4 advanced packaging facilities over the next several years. We are preparing for multiple phases of 2-nanometer fabs in both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung Science Parks to support the strong structural demand from our customers. By expanding our global footprint while continuing to invest in Taiwan, TSMC can continue to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global IC industry for years to come, while delivering profitable growth for our shareholders.

    在台灣,在台灣政府的支持下,我們計劃在未來幾年內建造11座晶圓製造廠和4座先進封裝設施。我們正在新竹和高雄科學園區籌備多期2奈米晶圓廠,以滿足客戶強勁的結構性需求。透過擴大我們的全球影響力並繼續在台灣投資,台積電可以在未來幾年繼續成為全球積體電路產業值得信賴的技術和產能供應商,同時為我們的股東帶來獲利成長。

  • Now let me talk about our N2 and A16 status. Our N2 and A16 technologies lead the industry in addressing the insatiable demand for energy efficient computing, and almost all the innovators are working with TSMC. We expect a number of new tape-outs for 2-nanometer technology in the first two years to be higher than both 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer in their first two years, fueled by both smartphone and HPC applications.

    現在我來談談我們的N2和A16狀態。我們的 N2 和 A16 技術在滿足對節能運算的無限需求方面處於行業領先地位,幾乎所有創新者都在與台積電合作。我們預計,在智慧型手機和 HPC 應用的推動下,2 奈米技術在前兩年的新流片數量將高於 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術在前兩年的新流片數量。

  • N2 deliver full-node performance and power benefits, with 10 to 15% speed improvement at the same power or [25%] (corrected by company after the call) to 30% power improvement at the same speed, and more than 15% chip density increase as compared with the N3E.

    N2 提供全節點效能和功率優勢,與 N3E 相比,相同功率下速度提升 10% 至 15%,相同速度下功率提升 [25%](公司在電話會議後更正)至 30%,晶片密度提高 15% 以上。

  • N2 is well on track for volume production in the second half of 2025, as scheduled, with a RAM profile similar to N3. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of our N2 family. N2P features further performance and power benefits on top of the N2, and volume production is scheduled for second-half 2026.

    N2 預計將在 2025 年下半年按計劃量產,其 RAM 配置與 N3 類似。秉承持續改善的策略,我們也推出了 N2P 作為 N2 系列的擴展。N2P 在 N2 的基礎上進一步提升了性能和功率優勢,預計在 2026 年下半年實現量產。

  • We also introduced A16 featuring our best-in-class Super Power Rail, or SPR. Compared with the N2P, A16 provides a further 8% to 10% speed improvement at the same power, or 15% to 20% power improvement at the same speed and additional 7% to 10% chip density gain. A16 is best suited for specific HPC products with complex signal routes and dense power delivery networks. Volume production is on track for second-half 2026.

    我們還推出了採用我們一流的超級動力軌 (SPR) 的 A16。與 N2P 相比,A16 在相同功率下速度可再提升 8% 至 10%,或在相同速度下功率可提升 15% 至 20%,且晶片密度可額外提升 7% 至 10%。A16 最適合具有複雜訊號路由和密集電力傳輸網路的特定 HPC 產品。預計 2026 年下半年將量產。

  • We believe N2, N2P, A16 and its derivatives will fuel our N2 family to be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

    我們相信 N2、N2P、A16 及其衍生產品將推動我們的 N2 系列成為另一個由台積電的大型且持久的節點。

  • Finally, let me talk about our A14 status. Featuring our second-generation nanosheet transistor structure, A14 will deliver another full node stride from N2, with performance and power benefits to address the increasing structural demand for high performance and energy efficient computing. Compared with N2, [A14] (corrected by company after the call) will provide 10% to 15% speed improvement at the same power or [25%] (corrected by company after the call) to 30% power improvement at the same speed and about 20% chip density gain.

    最後說一下我們A14的狀況。A14 採用我們的第二代奈米片電晶體結構,將在 N2 的基礎上實現另一個完整節點的飛躍,並具有性能和功率優勢,以滿足對高性能和節能計算日益增長的結構需求。與 N2 相比,[A14](公司在電話會議後進行了更正)將在相同功率下提供 10% 到 15% 的速度提升,或[25%](公司在電話會議後進行了更正)將在相同速度下提供 30% 的功率提升和約 20% 的晶片密度增益。

  • Our A14 technology development is on track and progressing well with device performance and yield improvement on or ahead of schedule. Volume production is scheduled for 2028. We will continue our strategy of continuous enhancement with A14, including a Super Power Rail offering planned for 2029. We believe A14 and its derivative will further extend our technology leadership position and enable TSMC to capture the growth opportunities well into the future.

    我們的A14技術開發正在按計劃進行,進展順利,設備性能和產量的提升均按計劃或提前完成。預計量產時間為 2028 年。我們將繼續實施 A14 的持續改善策略,包括計劃於 2029 年推出的超級動力鐵路。我們相信 A14 及其衍生產品將進一步擴大我們的技術領導地位,並使台積電能夠在未來很好地抓住成長機會。

  • This concluding our key message, and thank you for your attention.

    這就是我們的關鍵訊息,感謝您的關注。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, C.C. This does conclude our prepared statements. (Event Instructions)

    謝謝,C.C。我們的準備好的聲明到此結束。(活動須知)

  • So now, let's begin the question-and-answer session. We'll take the first few questions from the floor, then we'll flip and alternate to those on the line. Maybe we'll go left, center, and then sequence.

    現在,讓我們開始問答環節。我們將首先回答現場觀眾提出的幾個問題,然後翻轉並交替回答線上觀眾提出的問題。也許我們會向左、向中間,然後再按順序。

  • And we'll start here with Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

    首先,我們來談談摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Analyst

  • Thanks, Jeff. And good afternoon, C.C. and Wendell. First question on demand. I think, C.C., you mentioned data center AI demand definitely looks better than maybe three months back. Last quarter, you also mentioned CoWoS capacity will probably come into balance by 2026. Is that still our view? Or you think that the capacity now starts to look tighter?

    謝謝,傑夫。下午好,C.C. 和 Wendell。第一個按需提問。C.C.,我認為您提到的資料中心 AI 需求肯定比三個月前更好。上個季度,您也提到 CoWoS 容量可能到 2026 年就會達到平衡。這仍然是我們的觀點嗎?還是您認為現在產能開始變得更緊張?

  • Second, I think you talked about on-device AI as a potential future driver. Are you seeing more development on the on-device AI part? Is it better compared to maybe three, six months back?

    其次,我認為您談到了設備上的人工智慧作為潛在的未來驅動力。您是否看到設備上的 AI 部分有了更多的發展?與三個月或六個月前相比,情況有改善嗎?

  • And lastly, near term, your 4Q looks like you are expecting revenue to decline. Is that based on what your customers are telling us, especially on the consumer side? Or is it just TSMC being cautious and conservative in terms of the guidance?

    最後,從短期來看,您預計第四季的營收將會下降。這是根據您的客戶(尤其是消費者)告訴我們的情況嗎?或者台積電只是在指引方面採取謹慎和保守的態度?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Gokul, thank you. Again, for the benefit of those, of course, here in person and on the line, please allow me to summarize your questions. So maybe we'll take them one by one.

    好的。Gokul,謝謝你。再次,當然,為了在場的各位和在線的各位的利益,請允許我總結一下你們的問題。因此,我們也許會逐一解決這些問題。

  • His first question is on the demand, particularly data center and AI-related demand. As C.C. said in his remarks, it is certainly still even stronger. So his question is about the advanced packaging and CoWoS demand into 2026. How do we see the supply-demand gap narrowing or becoming more balanced for CoWoS specifically?

    他的第一個問題是關於需求,特別是資料中心和人工智慧相關的需求。正如 C.C. 在演講中所說,它肯定更加強大。所以他的問題是關於 2026 年先進封裝和 CoWoS 的需求。我們如何看待 CoWoS 的供需缺口縮小或變得更平衡?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Gokul, the demand from the AI getting stronger and stronger. If you pay attention to what the $4 trillion company’s CEO said -- and so the megatrend for the AI is continue to be strong, and so is the CoWoS. And so now we are -- again, we are in a mode trying to narrow the gap. I don't want to use that balance. The last time you guys misunderstood what I said. You thought it's a bad wording. So I will say we try to narrow the gap, alright? So momentum's still there and very healthy.

    Gokul,來自AI的需求越來越強烈。如果你留意這家市值 4 兆美元的公司的執行長說了什麼——那麼人工智慧的大趨勢將繼續強勁,CoWoS 也是如此。所以現在我們——再次,我們正處於試圖縮小差距的模式。我不想使用那個餘額。上次你們誤解我的話了。您認為這是一個錯誤的措辭。所以我想說,我們會努力縮小差距,好嗎?因此勢頭仍然存在並且非常健康。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. And then the second question or second part is on on-device or Edge AI. Gokul wants to know how is the development of customers to work on on-device AI compared to maybe three to six months ago. What is the interest or activity level and how do we see this?

    好的。第二個問題或第二部分是關於裝置上或邊緣 AI。Gokul 想知道與三到六個月前相比,客戶在裝置上使用 AI 的開發情況如何。興趣或活動量如何?我們如何看待它?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • As the last time I say it, I say that it takes one to two years for my customer to complete their new design of the product. The movement is still going. They are still continuing to -- as time goes by, as I said, the increase on the edge device, the number of the units is actually mild, but the die size increased. We continue to see that. And the die size increased by about 5% to 10%.

    正如我上次所說的那樣,我的客戶需要一到兩年的時間才能完成新產品的設計。運動仍在繼續。他們仍在繼續——隨著時間的推移,正如我所說,邊緣設備的增加,單元的數量實際上是溫和的,但晶片尺寸卻增加了。我們繼續看到這種情況。且晶片尺寸增加了約5%至10%。

  • And that kind of trend continued. Okay, so you have to wait another probably six months to one year to see an explosion.

    而這種趨勢還在持續。好的,所以你可能還得再等六個月到一年才能看到爆炸。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, and then Gokul’s second question of the final part on the near term. I think, Gokul, your question is with our third-quarter guidance implies fourth quarter, is there any particular reason or any comment that we want to make about the implied fourth quarter?

    好的,然後是 Gokul 最後部分的第二個問題,關於近期。我認為,Gokul,您的問題是,我們的第三季度指引暗示了第四季度,對於隱含的第四季度,我們有什麼特別的原因或想發表什麼評論嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • I think you did not mention Gokul's comments there or you are become conservative. That comment is more real. We are a company that when we say we achieve and achieve the high target. So your calculation, I think, Charlie also -- he's nodding. So a lot of you is calculating our reported number so that you can easily see that our fourth quarter is decreasing.

    我認為你沒有提到 Gokul 的評論,或者你變得保守了。那個評論比較真實。我們是一家說到做到、一定能達成高目標的公司。所以我認為你的計算是正確的,查理也是一樣——他點了點頭。因此,你們中的許多人都在計算我們的報告數字,以便可以輕鬆看到我們的第四季正在下降。

  • We take into the consideration of the possible impact of tariff and a lot of other uncertainties, so it become more conservative. That's our current attitude. But I guarantee you with our technology leadership position and excellent manufacturing, if there are any opportunities, we will catch and be expected that we are achieve our high-end target.

    我們考慮到了關稅可能帶來的影響以及許多其他不確定因素,因此變得更加保守。這就是我們目前的態度。但我向你保證,憑藉我們的技術領先地位和卓越的製造能力,如果有任何機會,我們都會抓住並有望實現我們的高端目標。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, thank you, C.C. Thank you, Gokul. Sorry, let's go one by one. Second question, then maybe Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

    好的,謝謝你,C.C。謝謝你,Gokul。抱歉,我們一個一個來說吧。第二個問題,可能是摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. Good afternoon, C.C., Wendell, and Jeff. So first of all, congrats for very strong results, and especially on the gross margin side. A very good execution indeed.

    感謝您回答我的問題。下午好,C.C.、Wendell 和 Jeff。首先,恭喜您取得非常強勁的業績,特別是在毛利率方面。確實是一個非常好的執行。

  • So my first question is really also on the gross margin, because the accumulated effect in pay is almost like 4.4 percentage points. So it's too big to ignore. So when TSMC consider your 2026 wafer pricing, so-called reflecting your value, would you consider this FX impact?

    所以我的第一個問題其實也是關於毛利率的,因為薪資的累積效應幾乎是 4.4 個百分點。所以它太大了,不容忽視。那麼當台積電考慮你的2026年晶圓定價,也就是所謂的反映你的價值時,你會考慮這種外匯影響嗎?

  • And is our company confident to keep your margin similar to this year's level? I feel like 53% is a low bar. So I just want to -- maybe a little bit high and see if that FX impact can be considered to reflect your value. Thank you.

    我們公司是否有信心讓你們的利潤率維持與今年類似的水準?我覺得 53% 的標準太低了。所以我只是想——可能有點高,看看外匯影響是否可以被認為反映你的價值。謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Charlie's first question is on margin and I guess pricing. He notes, obviously, as Wendell said the big move in the exchange rate and therefore big impact to our profitability and gross margin. So his question is looking ahead to 2026, can we reflect or earn our value from the including the FX impact into the pricing, and therefore what is our confidence level on the gross margin for next year? Can it keep a similar level as this year?

    好的。所以查理的第一個問題是關於利潤,我想是定價。他顯然指出,正如溫德爾所說,匯率的大幅波動對我們的獲利能力和毛利率產生了巨大影響。所以他的問題是展望 2026 年,我們能否透過將外匯影響納入定價來反映或獲得我們的價值,因此我們對明年的毛利率的信心程度如何?能否保持與今年類似的水平?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, let me assure you that, yes, the impact from the exchange rate is huge. You try to imply that whether we will sell our value. Let me answer that. We are working on it. And we have confidence that the 53% gross margin and higher, I still want you guys to pay more attention to “and higher.” Okay, thank you.

    嗯,我向你保證,是的,匯率的影響是巨大的。您試圖暗示我們是否會出售我們的價值。讓我來回答這個問題。我們正在努力。我們有信心實現53%及以上的毛利率,但我還是希望大家多關注「以上」。好的,謝謝。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. Hopefully, it will work out well. My second question is also a very hot topic recently about the H20 chip shipping to China. I remember three months ago, there was another question on this matter, right, meaning that back then I believed that shipping was a suspend, but you're still very confident about your mid-40% CAGR for cloud semi growth in the coming five years.

    好的。謝謝。希望一切能夠順利。我的第二個問題也是最近非常熱門的話題,關於H20晶片運往中國。我記得三個月前,關於這個問題還有另一個問題,對吧,意思是當時我認為出貨量會暫停,但您仍然對未來五年雲半導體增長 40% 左右的複合年增長率非常有信心。

  • Now China becomes your addressable market again. Do you think that mid-40% CAGR target can be revised up?

    現在中國再次成為您的目標市場。您認為 40% 左右的複合年增長率目標可以上調嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Charlie. So Charlie's second question is around the AI accelerator demand. He notes, of course, our customers' product, H20 recently, is now seems to be able to ship to China versus three months ago it was not. So his question really is our long-term AI accelerator growth CAGR to grow close to mid-40s, can it be higher? Do we think it will be higher? Is there upside to this?

    好的。謝謝你,查理。Charlie 的第二個問題是關於 AI 加速器的需求。他指出,當然,我們客戶的產品 H20 現在似乎可以運往中國,而三個月前還不能。所以他的問題其實是我們的長期人工智慧加速器成長複合年增長率接近 40% 左右,還能更高嗎?我們認為它會更高嗎?這樣有什麼好處嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Charlie, the H20 now, again, according to the $4 trillion company’s CEO, we did not receive the signal yet, so it's too early to give you an estimate. But certainly, it is a good news, right? I mean that China is a big market and my customer can still continue to supply the chip to the big market, and it's a very positive news for them and in return is a very positive news to TSMC.

    查理,現在又是 H20,根據這家價值 4 兆美元的公司的執行長的說法,我們還沒有收到訊號,所以現在給你一個估計還為時過早。但這無疑是個好消息,對吧?我的意思是,中國是一個大市場,我的客戶仍然可以繼續向這個大市場供應晶片,這對他們來說是一個非常積極的消息,反過來對台積電來說也是一個非常積極的消息。

  • Whether we are ready to increase our forecast, not yet. Another quarter, probably will be more appropriate to answer your question.

    我們是否準備好提高我們的預測,目前還沒有。再過一個季度,可能更適合回答你的問題。

  • Charlie Chan - Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Analyst

  • Thanks for your comment. It’s very helpful. Thanks.

    感謝您的評論。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Charlie. Okay, then we'll move on to the right side of the room for us. Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

    謝謝你,查理。好的,那我們就前往房間的右側。高盛的 Bruce Lu。

  • Bruce Lu - Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my question. I think Charlie already asked the profitability question already. So I'll just move on to your N2 ramp. So what's the revenue contribution we can expect for the N2 ramp for next year? I'm a little bit surprised to hear that the N2 ramp is similar rate with N3. With N2, you do have both HPC and smartphone customer ramping on the same stage in the first slide, year one or year two, right? Can we expect like, 15 % revenue contribution coming from N2 for next year or a similar level compared to N2, which is around like 10%, 11% for the year two?

    感謝您回答我的問題。我認為查理已經問過盈利能力的問題了。因此我將直接轉到您的 N2 坡道。那麼,我們可以預期明年 N2 坡道的收入貢獻是多少?聽到 N2 坡道與 N3 的坡道速度相似,有點驚訝。有了 N2,在第一張投影片中,第一年或第二年,HPC 和智慧型手機客戶確實會在同一階段發展,對嗎?我們是否可以預期明年 N2 的收入貢獻將達到 15% 左右,或與 N2 的水平相似(第二年約為 10% 或 11%)?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Bruce's first question is around the N2 ramp. His question is about the ramp and the ramp profile, because we said the N2 ramp profile is similar to N3. So what does that mean? And then also, of course, what contribution do we expect or can we share for N2 in 2026?

    好的。布魯斯的第一個問題是關於 N2 坡道的。他的問題是關於斜坡和斜坡輪廓的,因為我們說 N2 斜坡輪廓與 N3 相似。那麼這意味著什麼?當然,我們期望在 2026 年為 N2 做出什麼貢獻,或者我們可以分享什麼貢獻?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Bruce, you have a good argument. Usually, we ramp up a new node using the smartphone. You knew that; everybody knew it. Now, it's not only a smartphone but also HPC product. However, the ramping profile I just reported is similar to 3-nanometer.

    布魯斯,你的論點很正確。通常,我們會使用智慧型手機來啟動一個新節點。你知道這一點;每個人都知道這一點。現在,它不僅是一款智慧型手機,也是一款HPC產品。然而,我剛剛報告的斜坡輪廓與 3 奈米相似。

  • It's limited by our capability to build a new fab to ramp it up and also a little bit straightforward is constrained by the capacity. So we say the ramp profile is similar to N3, but the revenue contribution certainly will be bigger because you don't expect our N2 is the same price as N3, right?

    這受到我們建造新工廠以提高產量的能力的限制,也受到產能的限制。所以我們說坡道輪廓與 N3 相似,但收入貢獻肯定會更大,因為您不希望我們的 N2 與 N3 價格相同,對嗎?

  • Bruce Lu - Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Analyst

  • Of course.

    當然。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Good. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Bruce Lu - Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Analyst

  • If that is the case, we should assume like in '27, the N2 ramp-up will be faster, right? Because you take 12, 18 months for you to build new fab, you should be able to achieve even higher growth in N2 in '27, right?

    如果是這樣的話,我們應該假設像 27 年一樣,N2 的成長速度會更快,對嗎?因為你花了 12 到 18 個月的時間來建造新晶圓廠,所以你應該能夠在 27 年實現 N2 的更高成長,對嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Bruce is asking if the revenue contribution is higher in '26, then should it be even greater in '27.

    因此,布魯斯問道,如果 26 年的收入貢獻更高,那麼 27 年的收入貢獻是否應該更高。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • We will answer that question in '26. Thank you.

    我們將在 26 年回答這個問題。謝謝。

  • Bruce Lu - Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Analyst

  • Okay. The next question is for N5 and N3, right? So I want to understand the supply demand for the N5 and N3 in the coming two years as most of the AI will migrate to N3 next year. But it seems to me that the N5 conversion is mostly done – N5/N3 conversion is mostly done. And we don't really see like greenfield capacity expansion from N3.

    好的。下一個問題是關於N5和N3的吧?因此,我想了解未來兩年 N5 和 N3 的供應需求,因為大多數 AI 明年將遷移到 N3。但在我看來,N5 轉換基本上已經完成——N5/N3 轉換基本上已經完成。我們確實沒有看到 N3 的綠地產能擴張。

  • So it becomes like super tightness for the N3 for the coming years. So does that mean that N5 will be lower utilized or we try to build more N3 in the future? Or what kind of -- or we should see -- we can sell our more value for N3, N5 next year?

    因此,未來幾年 N3 的情況將變得非常緊張。那麼,這是否意味著 N5 的利用率會更低,或者我們將來會嘗試建立更多的 N3?或者什麼樣的——或者我們應該看到——我們明年可以出售更多具有更高價值的 N3、N5?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Bruce's second question is around N5 and N3. He wants to know what is the outlook, the supply/demand at these two advanced nodes the coming two years. His observation, AI products will migrate to N3, and the N5 to N3 conversion is mostly done. So his question is, will 3-nanometer supply be very tight in the next few years.

    好的。Bruce 的第二個問題是關於 N5 和 N3 的。他想知道未來兩年這兩個先進節點的前景如何,供需情況如何。他觀察,AI產品會往N3遷移,N5到N3的轉換也基本完成。所以他的問題是,未來幾年 3 奈米的供應是否會非常緊張。

  • And I think the last part, therefore, can we earn our value or price for that tightness. And then on the flip side, what about 5-nanometer, will it become lower utilization?

    因此,我認為最後一部分是我們能否為這種緊張贏得價值或價格。那麼另一方面,5奈米的情況如何,它的利用率會降低嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • I'd like your comment on that we have to sell our value because we're tight in N3 capacity. It will be continued for a couple of years, very tight. And in fact, N5 also very tight. The demand is high because a lot of our AI products still in the 4-nanometer technology node, and they will transition to 3-nanometer probably in the next two years. So in meanwhile, N5 are still very tight in capacity. N3, even tighter. And so we are working hard.

    我想聽聽您的評論,我們必須出售我們的價值,因為我們的 N3 容量緊張。這會持續幾年,非常緊湊。而事實上,N5也非常緊。需求很高,因為我們的許多人工智慧產品仍處於 4 奈米技術節點,並且可能在未來兩年內過渡到 3 奈米。因此同時,N5 的產能仍然非常緊張。N3,更緊。所以我們正在努力工作。

  • One of the TSMC’s advantages is that we have GigaFab cluster. And so we have between N7, N5, N3, even the future N2, we have almost for each node, we have about 85% to 90% common tools. So it's not free, but it's much easier for TSMC to adjust or convert the capacity between those nodes.

    台積電的優點之一是我們擁有GigaFab叢集。因此,在 N7、N5、N3 甚至未來的 N2 之間,我們幾乎針對每個節點都有大約 85% 到 90% 的通用工具。因此它不是免費的,但對於台積電來說,調整或轉換這些節點之間的容量要容易得多。

  • And today, let me share with you, we are using the N7 capacity to support N5 because the N5 is too tight. And then we are converting N5 to N3 as you just pointed out. We'll continue to do that.

    今天,我跟大家分享一下,我們正在用N7的產能來支持N5,因為N5的產能太緊張了。然後,正如您剛才指出的那樣,我們將 N5 轉換為 N3。我們將繼續這樣做。

  • And so today, our leading edge technology’s capacity, we define N7 and below are all very tight. And seeing that, we are working very hard to -- again, using my sentence, to narrow the gap between the demand and the capacity.

    所以今天,我們的尖端技術的產能,我們定義N7及以下的都非常緊張。看到這一點,我們正在努力——再次用我的話來說,縮小需求和能力之間的差距。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Bruce. Let's go to the participants online. Maybe we'll take two questions from the online, and then we'll come back to the floor. Thank you. Operator?

    好的。謝謝你,布魯斯。讓我們在線上與參與者見面。也許我們會從網路上回答兩個問題,然後我們再回到現場。謝謝。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Now asking question, Brett Simpson, Arete.

    現在提問,布雷特辛普森,Arete。

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • I had a question for Wendell on gross margins. And it's always helpful you've laid out a framework for some of the puts and takes to TSMC's gross margins. But my question is really some of these headwinds like FX and the dilution from overseas fabs are more structural cost increases. And to what extent can TSMC adjust wafer pricing higher to neutralize these cost increases in your business?

    我有一個關於毛利率的問題想問溫德爾。而且,為台積電毛利率的一些影響因素制定一個框架總是有幫助的。但我的問題是,外匯和海外晶圓廠的稀釋等不利因素實際上會導致結構性成本增加。台積電可以在多大程度上提高晶圓定價來抵銷業務中的這些成本增加?

  • And I guess, secondly, on this point, how much economic benefits are you seeing from applying AI across the fabs? I mean I think NVIDIA has mentioned that they're working with TSMC closely, strategically in areas like computational lithography to try to drive further fab efficiencies. So can you maybe just give us some examples where you're seeing real gains in your cost structure? And are we at a point where you're starting to see several points of gross margin benefit from AI efficiencies? Thanks.

    其次,關於這一點,您認為在整個晶圓廠應用人工智慧能帶來多少經濟效益?我的意思是,我認為 NVIDIA 已經提到他們正在與台積電在計算光刻等領域進行密切的策略合作,以進一步提高晶圓廠的效率。那麼,您能否給我們舉一些例子,說明您的成本結構是如何獲得真正利益的呢?我們是否已經開始看到 AI 效率帶來的幾個毛利率收益點?謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • All right, Brett. So Brett's first question is a little bit involved. But looking at our gross margin and profitability, he notes that the unfavorable exchange rate and the dilution from the overseas due to the higher costs, these are structural headwinds. So his question is, how can we, or can we earn our value or adjust our wafer price to help offset some of these?

    好的,布雷特。布雷特的第一個問題有點複雜。但從我們的毛利率和獲利能力來看,他指出,不利的匯率和由於成本上升而導致的海外稀釋,這些都是結構性阻力。所以他的問題是,我們如何賺取我們的價值或調整我們的晶圓價格來幫助抵消其中的一些?

  • And also, how much -- we've talked about before about using AI ourselves in our operations, how much economic benefit are we deriving from things such as the CuLitho with our customers? And are there other examples of using AI where it's helping our cost structure? And can we quantify that -- quantify the benefit, sorry.

    而且,我們之前討論過在營運中使用人工智慧,我們從 CuLitho 等產品中為客戶帶來了多少經濟效益?有其他使用人工智慧來幫助我們控製成本結構的例子嗎?我們能否量化這一點——量化收益,抱歉。

  • That's your question, right, Brett?

    這就是你的問題,對吧,布雷特?

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • That's right. Thanks, thanks.

    這是正確的。謝謝,謝謝。

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Brett, the first question, gross margin. That's the reason why we've been talking about the six factors affecting our profitability. I don't think I need to repeat those six factors. But whenever, for example, using foreign exchange rate as an example, a few years ago, there were also a period of time that foreign exchange rates were against us. So we are able to lean on the other factors to help us mitigate the negative impact from certain factors and, therefore, still achieve our gross margin targets.

    好的。布雷特,第一個問題是毛利率。這就是我們一直在談論影響獲利能力的六個因素的原因。我認為我不需要重複這六個因素。但無論何時,比如說以外匯率為例,前幾年,也有一段時間外匯匯率對我們不利。因此,我們能夠依靠其他因素來幫助我們減輕某些因素帶來的負面影響,從而仍然實現我們的毛利率目標。

  • And you specifically asked about ASP of raising the price, but the price is just one of the factors. And I believe C.C. just elaborate a lot on earning our value. And at the same time, there are other factors that we can leverage on. So all in all, that's why we're saying 53% and higher and higher gross margin is still achievable.

    而且您特別詢問了提高價格的ASP,但價格只是其中一個因素。我相信 C.C. 已經詳細闡述瞭如何獲得我們的價值。同時,我們也可以利用其他因素。總而言之,這就是為什麼我們說 53% 甚至更高的毛利率仍然是可以實現的。

  • Your second question on AI benefits. I think we also talked about that before. We used that in operation, in manufacturing. We also use that in R&Ds. And just think about if we are able to produce 1% of productivity gains in a company of our size, that equals to USD1 billion. So that's the number we can share with you without going into too much other details.

    您的第二個問題是關於人工智慧的好處。我想我們之前也討論過這個問題。我們在運營和製造過程中使用了它。我們也在研發中使用它。試想一下,如果我們能夠在我們這種規模的公司中實現 1% 的生產力成長,那就相當於 10 億美元。這就是我們可以與您分享的數字,無需透露太多其他細節。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Does that answer your question, Brett?

    這回答了你的問題嗎,布雷特?

  • Brett Simpson - Analyst

    Brett Simpson - Analyst

  • Yeah, that's great. Thanks very much, Wendell. I guess my follow-up question, I guess, just digesting your prepared remarks, C.C., you mentioned 11 fabs in Taiwan. I think I count eight fabs for overseas that you're planning that aren't commercially online yet.

    是的,太棒了。非常感謝,溫德爾。我想我的後續問題是,我只是在消化您準備好的發言,C.C.,您提到了台灣的 11 座晶圓廠。我認為您計劃建造的海外晶圓廠有 8 個,但尚未實現商業化營運。

  • Can you maybe just talk a bit about -- I mean I've never seen that type of roadmap before from TSMC. It's quite big. Can you maybe share with us if you're planning a bigger expansion of new capacity next year?

    您能否簡單談談——我的意思是,我以前從未見過台積電的這種路線圖。它相當大。您是否計劃明年擴大新產能?能否與我們分享一下?

  • And I say this because in the last few months, we've seen so many gigawatts data center announcements. I think this week, we had one from Meta that was significant. So the demand looks very strong, and I'm just wondering whether you have enough capacity to satisfy demand next year and whether you plan to convert further 5-nanometer to 3-nanometer and how you see the N2 capacity plans for 2026.

    我之所以這麼說,是因為在過去的幾個月裡,我們看到了許多千兆瓦資料中心的公告。我認為本週我們從 Meta 那裡得到了一個非常重要的消息。因此需求看起來非常強勁,我只是想知道您是否有足夠的產能來滿足明年的需求,以及您是否計劃將進一步的 5 奈米轉換為 3 奈米,以及您如何看待 2026 年的 N2 產能計劃。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Brett's second question, he notes that we are building many fabs, both in Taiwan and also overseas. He's never seen this size or scale of capacity expansion from TSMC before. So it's very -- and he also notes that demand from data centers continues to be very strong. So his question is basically very simply, do we have enough capacity to support the strong demand specific to next year and also very specifically to 2-nanometer? And will we further also convert more 5-nanometer to 3? That's, I think, all of this question.

    好的。布雷特的第二個問題,他指出我們正在台灣和海外建造許多晶圓廠。他從未見過台積電如此規模的產能擴張。所以,他也指出,資料中心的需求持續強勁。所以他的問題基本上很簡單,我們是否有足夠的產能來支持明年特別是 2 奈米的強勁需求?我們還會進一步將更多的 5 奈米轉換為 3 奈米嗎?我想,這就是這個問題的全部。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Brett, your observation is right. Recently, we saw a lot of announcement of the AI data center over the world. And the demand on 3-nanometer -- actually on 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer, and the future 2-nanometer are very high. And we did not see this kind of strong demand for a long time, but will it be enough to support them? I still want to use my word, say that we try very hard to narrow the gap between the demand and the supply. We're working very hard.

    布雷特,你的觀察是正確的。最近,我們看到世界各地有許多關於人工智慧資料中心的公告。對 3 奈米——實際上對 5 奈米、3 奈米以及未來的 2 奈米的需求都非常高。而且我們已經很久沒有看到這種強勁的需求了,但這足以支撐他們嗎?我還是想用我自己的話來說,我們非常努力地縮小需求和供應之間的差距。我們正在非常努力地工作。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Brett. Let's go to the next participant on the call.

    好的。謝謝你,布雷特。讓我們轉到通話的下一位參與者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arthur Lai, Macquarie.

    麥格理銀行的亞瑟·萊(Arthur Lai)。

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • Arthur Lai from Macquarie. Again, congrats on a strong result. I would like to follow up on the N2. I think as C.C. highlight, this is a very exciting node we have heard. And then I want to follow up on the return on investment. Can you compare to the N2 and N3 the return on investment and then give us more color?

    麥格理銀行的 Arthur Lai。再次恭喜您取得優異的成績。我想跟進N2。我認為正如 C.C. 所強調的那樣,這是我們聽到的一個非常令人興奮的節點。然後我想跟進投資回報。您能否比較一下 N2 和 N3 的投資報酬率,然後給我們更多說明?

  • Second one is the reason we ask this question is because the CapEx per area, actually, N2 is higher, right? And then we also heard from industry that the company's yield on the N2 is also pretty good. So can you give us some put and take on how we think of the N2's future development? Thank you.

    第二個是我們問這個問題的原因是因為單位面積的資本支出實際上 N2 較高,對嗎?然後我們也從業界獲悉,該公司的 N2 收益率也相當不錯。那麼,您能否就我們對 N2 未來發展的看法和看法給我們一些建議?謝謝。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Arthur's question -- both questions, I think, are around N2. N2, as you said, is a very exciting node. He would like to know understand what is the return or the return on investment that we see from N2 compared to N3.

    好的。所以亞瑟的問題——我認為這兩個問題都與 N2 有關。正如您所說,N2 是一個非常令人興奮的節點。他想了解與 N3 相比,N2 的回報或投資回報率是多少。

  • And also, can we talk a little bit about N2 -- the CapEx is higher, but the yield is still very good. What is the developments that we're seeing for 2-nanometer? I think that's – Is that your question, Arthur?

    另外,我們可以談談 N2 嗎——資本支出較高,但收益率仍然很好。我們看到 2 奈米有哪些發展?我認為那是——這是你的問題嗎,亞瑟?

  • Arthur Lai - Analyst

    Arthur Lai - Analyst

  • Yes, yes. Yeah, exactly.

    是的,是的。是的,確實如此。

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay, Arthur, N2 return. As we said before, N2, the profitability is better than N3. Now there were questions asking how many quarters to catch up with the corporate before. And N3 was -- it took N3 longer. But for N2, we think it will be back to the old days.

    好的,亞瑟,N2 回來。前面我們說過了,N2的獲利能力比N3好。現在有疑問,需要多少季度才能趕上企業之前的表現。而 N3 則需要更長的時間。但對於N2,我們認為它會回到過去。

  • Having said that, I need to remind everyone that in the old days, we're talking about corporate average of, say, 50% gross margin. Nowadays, we're talking about 53% gross margin. So it becomes less meaningful to talk about how much time it takes to catch up with corporate nowadays. But having said that, structurally, N2 does have a better profitability than N3, okay?

    話雖如此,我需要提醒大家,在過去,我們談論的是企業平均毛利率,比如說 50%。如今,我們談論的是53%的毛利率。所以現在談論需要多長時間才能趕上企業已經變得沒有多大意義了。不過話說回來,從結構上來說,N2 的獲利能力確實比 N3 好,好嗎?

  • And N2 development is right on track. We're ramping it in the second half of this year. We expect the revenue to come up in the first half of next year.

    N2 開發目前正處於正軌上。我們將在今年下半年加大力度。我們預計收入將在明年上半年上升。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Wendell. Thank you, Arthur. Let's come back to the floor. We'll go left, middle, right.

    好的。謝謝你,溫德爾。謝謝你,亞瑟。讓我們回到正題。我們先往左,再往中間,再往右。

  • So maybe Sunny Lin from UBS.

    所以可能是瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • Very good results, and congrats. So my first question is a follow-up on CapEx. So obviously, full-year sales guidance is stronger, you are turning more constructive on high performance compute and AI, yet you are keeping your CapEx guidance. So is it fair to assume that you are considering some conservatism for CapEx for this year given the ongoing macro uncertainty? Or is it because in the short term, your capacity expansion is somewhat constrained by the ability that you can ramp up more capacity. And therefore, maybe in 2026 and 2027, we should expect some acceleration of your CapEx spending.

    非常好的結果,恭喜。所以我的第一個問題是關於資本支出的後續問題。因此顯然,全年銷售預期更加強勁,您對高效能運算和人工智慧的態度也更加積極,同時您仍保持著資本支出預期。那麼,考慮到持續的宏觀不確定性,是否可以公平地假設您正在考慮對今年的資本支出採取一些保守態度?或者是因為在短期內,您的產能擴張在某種程度上受到了您增加更多產能的能力的限制。因此,也許在 2026 年和 2027 年,我們應該預期您的資本支出會有所加速。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Sunny's first question is around CapEx. She notes, of course, that we raised our 2025 revenue guidance this year, and we certainly still see a very robust demand from AI, yet we kept our CapEx guidance in the same range of $38 to $42 (billion).

    好的。因此,Sunny 的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。當然,她指出,我們今年提高了 2025 年的收入預期,而且我們仍然看到來自人工智慧的強勁需求,但我們仍將資本支出預期保持在 380 億美元至 420 億美元(10 億美元)的相同範圍內。

  • So she wants to understand why. Is it because of macro uncertainty? Is it because of constraints in the construction? And her other part of this question is what is the CapEx outlook for '26 and '27, I guess.

    所以她想了解原因。是因為宏觀不確定性嗎?是因為施工方面受到限制嗎?我想,她提出這個問題的另一部分是 26 年和 27 年的資本支出前景如何。

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Sunny, the CapEx, as we said before, the CapEx invested in a given year is for the business opportunities in the following years. And as long as there are business opportunities, we will not hesitate to invest.

    好的。Sunny,資本支出,正如我們之前所說,某一年投資的資本支出是為了接下來幾年的商業機會。只要有商機,我們就會毫不猶豫地投資。

  • Having said that, nowadays, as C.C. also said, with all these macro uncertainties, we are mindful of these uncertainties. So we also take that into considerations in our capacity and CapEx plan.

    話雖如此,如今,正如 C.C. 所說,面對所有這些宏觀不確定性,我們對這些不確定性保持警惕。因此,我們在產能和資本支出計劃中也考慮到了這一點。

  • Going forward, it's too early to talk about future years CapEx, but I can share with you a company of our size, it's unlikely that you see CapEx dollar amount suddenly drop a lot in any given year. That's all I can share with you.

    展望未來,現在談論未來幾年的資本支出還為時過早,但我可以與大家分享,在我們這樣規模的公司,你不太可能看到資本支出金額在任何一年突然大幅下降。這就是我能與你們分享的全部內容。

  • Sunny Lin - Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Analyst

  • Got it. It sounds like CapEx could be going higher in the coming years.

    知道了。聽起來未來幾年資本支出可能會更高。

  • My second question is on cloud AI. And so you -- seems like earlier attribute most of the sales upside for 2025 to cloud AI. And therefore, I wonder if you have an update on the cloud AI growth in 2025, which you guided before to be about 100% for 2025.

    我的第二個問題是關於雲AI的。所以你——似乎早些時候將 2025 年的大部分銷售成長歸因於雲端 AI。因此,我想知道您是否對 2025 年雲端 AI 的成長有何看法?您先前預測 2025 年雲端 AI 的成長速度將達到 100% 左右。

  • And the implication to your CoWoS capacity expansion. Are you able to maybe expand a bit more CoWoS capacity for this year to support a stronger cloud AI growth for this year? And any early insights that you could share with us for your CoWoS capacity expansion for 2026?

    以及對您的 CoWoS 容量擴展的影響。今年您是否可以擴大一些 CoWoS 容量,以支援今年更強勁的雲端 AI 成長?您能與我們分享 2026 年 CoWoS 產能擴張的任何早期見解嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Sunny's second question is asking about our AI. Well, she says cloud AI, basically, our AI accelerator growth in 2025 and related the CoWoS capacity. So her question is what is the AI accelerator revenue growth we expect in 2025? And then what is our CoWoS capacity expansion plan for 2025? And she asked a similar question to Charlie or someone earlier, what is the plan for CoWoS capacity in 2026?

    好的。所以 Sunny 的第二個問題是問我們的 AI。嗯,她說雲端 AI,基本上是我們的 AI 加速器在 2025 年的成長以及相關的 CoWoS 容量。所以她的問題是,我們預計 2025 年 AI 加速器的營收成長是多少?那我們2025年的CoWoS產能擴充計畫是什麼呢?她之前向 Charlie 或其他人問過類似的問題,2026 年 CoWoS 容量的計劃是什麼?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, my answer stays the same. We are trying very hard to narrow the gap, for now and for 2026. The demand, the momentum are very healthy and very strong. And so we are building many new facilities in the backend to increase the CoWoS capacity to support our customers. AI demand is very strong, and so is CoWoS capacity, the demand is very strong.

    嗯,我的答案保持不變。我們正在努力縮小差距,無論是現在還是2026年。需求和勢頭非常健康和強勁。因此,我們正在後端建造許多新設施,以增加 CoWoS 的容量來支援我們的客戶。AI 需求非常強勁,CoWoS 容量也是如此,需求非常強勁。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Sunny. Then we'll move on to Laura Chen from Citi.

    好的。謝謝你,Sunny。然後我們再來談談花旗銀行的 Laura Chen。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • Congrats for the good result and outlook. My question is also about the AI chip. C.C., you mentioned that AI chip is getting bigger and bigger and also the power consumption is getting much more.

    恭喜您取得的良好結果和前景。我的問題也是關於AI晶片的。C.C.,您提到AI晶片越來越大,而且耗電量也越來越高。

  • So I'm just wondering that among like your advanced technology, including like the advanced node, we also noted that during the symposium, TSMC also announced some of the new technology in advanced packaging as well.

    所以我只是想知道,在你們的先進技術中,包括先進節點,我們也注意到,在研討會期間,台積電也宣布了一些先進封裝的新技術。

  • So I'm just wondering how do you kind of prioritize your leading-edge advanced packaging. During the symposium, we see that System-on-Wafer that kind of a new design. Do you have any like plan or like timeline for the new technology? And should we think about that that should be kind of aligned with our most advanced node process like N2 or A16 going forward?

    所以我只是想知道您如何優先考慮您的尖端先進封裝。在研討會上,我們看到了晶圓系統(System-on-Wafer)這種新型設計。您對新科技有什麼計劃或時間表嗎?我們是否應該考慮這應該與我們最先進的節點流程(如 N2 或 A16)保持一致?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Laura's first question is on advanced packaging. She notes AI, the die sizes are increasing, the need for power consumption or energy efficiency is rising. So she wants to understand how our strategy for advanced packaging along with the advanced node development. Are there any specific packaging solutions that we're prioritizing? What about the timeline and roadmap? How does that match up with our advanced node roadmap?

    好的。因此,勞拉的第一個問題是關於先進封裝的。她指出,隨著人工智慧的發展,晶片尺寸不斷增大,對功耗或能源效率的需求也不斷上升。因此,她想了解我們的先進封裝策略以及先進節點開發如何進行。我們是否優先考慮某些特定的包裝解決方案?時間表和路線圖怎麼樣?這與我們的高階節點路線圖如何匹配?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Laura, I think TSMC's philosophy to develop a technology is working with the customer. The customer has such demand, we develop the technology, we increase the capacity for them. So priorities, every customer is important to TSMC. And in the advanced packaging side, a lot of customers are using different approaches. So we are developing a variety of different back-end packaging, advanced technology for all the customers.

    勞拉,我認為台積電開發技術的概念是與客戶合作。客戶有這樣的需求,我們就開發技術,為他們增加產能。所以優先考慮,每個客戶對台積電都很重要。在先進封裝方面,許多客戶正在採用不同的方法。因此,我們正在為所有客戶開發各種不同的後端封裝和先進的技術。

  • Whether it is related to the advanced leading-edge technology, the answer is yes. So we have system integration. We have CoWoS-L. That's the terminology. We have a lot of different names that I cannot even remember, but there's a lot of varieties, and we work with our customers to meet their demand, that I can answer you.

    是否與先進的前沿技術有關,答案是肯定的。所以我們有系統整合。我們有 CoWoS-L。這就是術語。我們有很多不同的名稱,我甚至記不住,但種類繁多,我們與客戶合作以滿足他們的需求,我可以回答你。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • Is that easy to kind of leverage or transfer different kind of technology from your perspective?

    從您的角度來看,利用或轉移不同類型的技術是否容易?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Laura is asking how fungible are these different packaging technologies. How interchangeable or easy to transfer the technology between different packaging solutions.

    因此勞拉詢問這些不同的包裝技術的可替代性如何。不同包裝解決方案之間的技術互換性或轉移容易程度。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Of course, there are some similarities in between. Otherwise, we are going to put too much of the effort and did not get the return. Yes, there's a lot of similarities, but a lot of varieties also.

    當然,兩者之間也存在一些相似之處。否則,我們就會付出太多的努力而得不到回報。是的,有很多相似之處,但也有很多不同之處。

  • Laura Chen - Analyst

    Laura Chen - Analyst

  • Thank you. And my second question is we know that obviously, the AI demand advanced node, advanced leading-edge packaging is very tight. But I'm just wondering that industry-wise, we still see probably overcapacity in mature nodes.

    謝謝。我的第二個問題是,我們顯然知道,人工智慧對先進節點、先進前沿封裝的需求非常緊張。但我只是想知道,從產業角度來看,我們仍然可能看到成熟節點的產能過剩。

  • Yet TSMC also have like more mature 16-nanometer or above that kind of process. So can we kind of consolidate our mature nodes to kind of make better efficiency and capabilities to enhance the -- like those capacity to fulfill the demand across the board?

    但台積電也有更成熟的16奈米或以上製程。那麼,我們能否整合成熟的節點,以提高效率和能力,從而滿足全面的需求?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Laura's second question is on mature nodes. She notes that there is overcapacity on the industry-wide in older nodes. So she wants to understand for TSMC specifically, if we take, for example, 16-nanometer and older nodes, what is our strategy? Can we consolidate amongst the different nodes? How do we protect our profitability?

    好的。勞拉的第二個問題是關於成熟節點的。她指出,整個產業的老節點都存在產能過剩的情況。因此,她想具體了解一下台積電的情況,例如,如果我們採用 16 奈米及更老的節點,我們的策略是什麼?我們可以在不同的節點之間進行合併嗎?我們如何保護我們的獲利能力?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Good question. If you read the newspaper, there are so much of mature node capacity. TSMC's strategy actually is on the mature node technologies. We develop kind of specialties. For example, that RF technology or CMOS image sensor or the high voltage.

    好問題。如果你讀報紙,你會發現有很多成熟的節點容量。台積電的策略其實是在成熟的節點技術上。我們開發各種專業。例如,RF技術或CMOS影像感測器或高壓。

  • So we develop the technology at the request of our customers. So we don't worry too much about what you say, overcapacity. If it is really overcapacity, we will not build a fab in Japan, we will not build a fab in Germany. So it's not overcapacity. It's all related to customers' need, customers' demand, and those are all specialty technologies.

    因此,我們根據客戶的要求開發這項技術。所以我們並不太擔心您所說的產能過剩。如果真的產能過剩,我們就不會在日本建廠,也不會在德國建廠。所以這並不是產能過剩。這一切都與客戶的需求、客戶的要求有關,這些都是專業技術。

  • Did I answer your question?

    我回答你的問題了嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Laura. I think in the interest of time, we'll go to Brad Lin from Bank of America. Then we'll take one more from the line and then if there's one more from the floor.

    好的。謝謝你,勞拉。我認為為了節省時間,我們將採訪美國銀行的布拉德林 (Brad Lin)。然後,我們會從罰球線上再拿一個,如果還有的話,我們會從罰球線上再拿一個。

  • Brad Lin - Analyst

    Brad Lin - Analyst

  • I have two questions. My first one is on the humanoid robot. So we have learned that humanoid robot started to contribute to TSMC, and it is gaining momentum as the next frontier of the AI hardware. How does TSMC evaluate the market size of humanoid robot in the semiconductor and in terms of the potential market TAM, compute, and also sensor requirements? And do you think that might be another driver potentially for mature nodes, too?

    我有兩個問題。我的第一個作品是關於人形機器人的。因此,我們了解到人形機器人開始為台積電做出貢獻,並且作為人工智慧硬體的下一個前沿,它正在獲得發展動力。台積電如何評估半導體領域人形機器人的市場規模以及潛在市場TAM、運算能力以及感測器需求?您是否認為這也可能是成熟節點的另一個潛在驅動因素?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Brad. So Brad's first question is around humanoid robots. We're starting to see some contribution. He wants to understand how do we evaluate the market size. What is the addressable opportunities for TSMC in the long term at the leading edge and also on the mature nodes with certain type of specialty?

    好的。謝謝你,布拉德。所以布拉德的第一個問題是關於人形機器人的。我們開始看到一些貢獻。他想了解我們如何評估市場規模。從長遠來看,台積電在尖端技術以及某些專業類型的成熟節點上有哪些可利用的機會?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Brad, it's too early. Actually, it's too early to say the humanoid robot will play a role in this year. Next year, probably it's still too early because it's so complicated. You know that the humanoid robot, well, most of the time will be used -- I think the first one will be used in medical industry to take care of the people getting old like me. And probably someday, I need some humanoid robot to help me.

    布拉德,太早了。實際上,現在說人形機器人將在今年發揮作用還為時過早。明年,可能還為時過早,因為情況太複雜了。你知道,人形機器人大多數時候都會被使用——我認為第一個會用於醫療行業,來照顧像我一樣年長的人。也許有一天,我需要一些人形機器人來幫助我。

  • But it's very complicated because we are talking about the brain only, actually, you're talking about a lot of sensor technology, that's the image sensor, the pressure sensor, the temperature sensor, and all the feedback to the CPU. And so it's very complicated.

    但它非常複雜,因為我們只談論大腦,實際上,你談論的是許多感測器技術,即影像感測器、壓力感測器、溫度感測器以及所有對 CPU 的回饋。所以這非常複雜。

  • And since it's dealing with human being directly, it has to be very, very careful. But then once they start to fly, it was a big, big plus. I talked to one of my customers, and he said that the EV car is nothing, his robot will be 10 times of that. I'm waiting for that. Okay.

    由於這是直接與人打交道,所以必須非常非常小心。但一旦它們開始飛行,這將是一個巨大的優勢。我和我的一個客戶聊天,他說電動車不算什麼,他的機器人將是電動車的 10 倍。我正在等待那個。好的。

  • Did that answer your question?

    這回答了你的問題嗎?

  • Brad Lin - Analyst

    Brad Lin - Analyst

  • Yes, yes. I believe the client definitely owns EV cars and robots, too, so he knows it well.

    是的,是的。我相信客戶肯定也擁有電動車和機器人,所以他很了解。

  • So my second question will be on the potential pulling ahead of the so-called reflecting the value into 2026. So we know, well, normally, we continue to reflect the value into our pricing. So given the potentially higher pricing into 2026, are you observing any signs of demand pulling from the customers in the second half of the year?

    因此,我的第二個問題是關於所謂的反映價值到 2026 年的可能性。所以我們知道,通常情況下,我們會繼續將價值反映到我們的定價中。那麼,考慮到 2026 年價格可能會上漲,您是否觀察到下半年客戶需求出現拉動的跡象?

  • And potentially, well, given the tight pipeline of N3 and N5, will we see a continued strength into 4Q, even though we already guided potential decline, but yeah, any pulling in potentially?

    而且潛在的是,考慮到 N3 和 N5 的緊張供應,我們是否會看到第四季度的持續強勁增長,儘管我們已經預測了潛在的下降,但有任何潛在的拉動嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Brad, second question, very specifically, he's asking as C.C. talked about that we will continue to earn our value, do we see any customers trying to pull in their demand ahead of 2026 into the second half of this year? And do we have any additional comments to offer on the fourth quarter besides what we have already shared?

    好的。布拉德,第二個問題,非常具體,他問的是,正如 C.C. 所說,我們將繼續創造我們的價值,我們是否看到任何客戶試圖將他們在 2026 年之前的需求拉到今年下半年?除了我們已經分享的內容之外,我們對第四季還有其他評論嗎?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, the answer is no. We do not see any different customers or behavior so far, okay? But let me share with you and add more color. If you are talking about the 3-nanometer's demand, for example, the cycle time itself will take about four months. So there's no way you can pull in anything.

    嗯,答案是否定的。到目前為止,我們沒有看到任何不同的客戶或行為,好嗎?但請允許我與您分享並添加更多色彩。例如,如果您談論的是 3 奈米的需求,那麼週期時間本身將需要大約四個月。所以你根本就不可能拉進任何東西。

  • I mean that's -- yeah, and we have -- as I said, our capacity is very, very tight. So we already have all the schedules. And so very little room for pull-in, let me say that, even they want it. But, No. The answer is no. So 2026 is 2026, we will share with you.

    我的意思是——是的,正如我所說,我們的產能非常非常緊張。所以我們已經有了所有的時間表。因此,幾乎沒有拉動空間,讓我這麼說吧,即使他們想要它。但是,不。答案是否定的。所以2026年就是2026年,我們會跟大家分享。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Brad. All right. Operator, we'll take questions from the last participant on the line.

    謝謝你,C.C。謝謝你,布拉德。好的。接線員,我們將回答最後一位線上參與者的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

    邁赫迪·胡賽尼(Mehdi Hosseini),SIG。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • The first one has to do with capital intensity. When I look at the past five years, when you were ramping N3 and N5, the capital intensity was at or above 40%. And you also highlighted how N2 tape-out is tracking better than N3 and N5 combined.

    第一個與資本密集度有關。回顧過去五年,當您擴大 N3 和 N5 規模時,資本密集度達到或超過 40%。您還強調了 N2 流片追蹤效果如何優於 N3 和 N5 的總和。

  • Does that imply that the capital intensity would need to go back up to 40%? In other words, an initial investment for N2 to accommodate these tape-outs? Is that the right way of thinking about how the investment are going to play out? And I have a follow-up.

    這是否意味著資本密集度需要回升至 40%?換句話說,N2 需要進行初始投資來適應這些流片嗎?這是思考投資將如何進行的正確方式嗎?我還有一個後續問題。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Mehdi. Sorry, we couldn't hear you exactly clearly. Let me try to summarize your question, all right, which is -- Mehdi's question is around capital intensity. He notes that in the past, when we invest in new nodes or structural, the megatrends like we have with N3 and N5, our capital intensity has jumped up to greater than 40%.

    好的,梅赫迪。抱歉,我們聽不清楚。讓我試著總結一下你的問題,好的,那就是——Mehdi 的問題是關於資本密集度的。他指出,過去,當我們投資新節點或結構性大趨勢(如 N3 和 N5 等)時,我們的資本密集度會躍升至 40% 以上。

  • So if I heard you correctly, Mehdi, your question is this time we talked about the strong demand for 2-nanometer multi-year upcoming. What is our expectation on capital intensity? Is that correct, Mehdi?

    所以,如果我沒聽錯的話,Mehdi,你的問題是,這次我們談論的是未來幾年對 2 奈米的強勁需求。我們對資本密集度的預期是什麼?對嗎,梅赫迪?

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • As we just said, the capital expenditures that invested in any given year is for future growth opportunities. So if we do our job right, the growth in the next few years is likely to exceed the growth in CapEx dollars. Even though, as I said, the CapEx dollars is unlikely to drop significantly in any given year, so you see a higher growth in revenue than the growth in capital expenditure, then you don't have such a high capital intensity. We actually demonstrated that in the past few years.

    正如我們剛才所說,任何一年投資的資本支出都是為了未來的成長機會。因此,如果我們做得正確,未來幾年的成長可能會超過資本支出的成長。儘管正如我所說,資本支出在任何一年都不太可能大幅下降,因此您會看到收入成長高於資本支出成長,那麼您就不會有如此高的資本密集度。事實上,我們在過去幾年已經證明了這一點。

  • And also, let me just share with you that because of this, we're not operating setting a capital intensity as a goal. The dollar amount invested is really on the structured demand growth in the following years. So talking about capital intensity is also less meaningful than before.

    另外,我想告訴大家,正因為如此,我們的營運目標並不是資本密集度。投資的金額其實在於未來幾年的結構性需求成長。因此,談論資本密集度也比以前沒有那麼有意義了。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Thank you. And a follow-up for me. You highlighted N2P. I'm sorry, you highlighted A16, which would be very applicable for high performance compute. Is that the node where AI and HPC would actually be at par with smartphone as an end market that would drive demand for the most leading edge node?

    謝謝。並對我進行後續跟進。您強調了 N2P。抱歉,您強調了 A16,它非常適合高效能運算。這個節點是否意味著 AI 和 HPC 實際上將與智慧型手機並駕齊驅,成為推動最前沿節點需求的終端市場?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Sorry, Mehdi, again, I apologize. We apologize. I could not hear you clearly, but I think his question is about on A16 where we said it's more for specific HPC-related offering. So his question is -- I think, Mehdi, your question is, is that where the AI demand also comes in for the 2-nanometer family?

    對不起,Mehdi,我再次向您道歉。我們深感抱歉。我聽不清楚,但我認為他的問題是關於 A16 的,我們說它更多是針對特定的 HPC 相關產品。所以他的問題是——我認為,Mehdi,你的問題是,人工智慧對 2 奈米系列的需求是否也來自這裡?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst

  • Yes. And I asked that because so far, AI has been N plus 1, N plus 2. Is that node A16 the first node where AI would move to the leading edge?

    是的。我之所以問這個問題,是因為到目前為止,人工智慧一直是 N 加 1、N 加 2。節點 A16 是 AI 移動到前緣的第一個節點嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. His question -- okay, maybe let me rephrase it. I think I understand, but his question is really about AI adoption of the leading-edge node, the N node. I see smartphone, we see HPC. His question is very specifically, how do we see the AI adoption of the most leading node for TSMC. He observes in the past, it has generally been one node behind. So how do we see that going forward with things such as A16?

    好的。他的問題——好吧,也許讓我重新表達。我想我明白了,但他的問題實際上是關於人工智慧採用前沿節點,即 N 節點。我看到了智慧型手機,我們看到了 HPC。他的問題非常具體,我們如何看待台積電在最領先節點的AI應用。他觀察過去的情況,一般都是落後一個節點。那我們又該如何看待 A16 等產品的發展呢?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Mehdi, you are right. Usually, the HPC's customers are always one step behind using N plus 1 or N plus 2 technologies. Now because of AI demand is so strong, that's one thing. But the most important thing is they need some kind of performance, but the power consumption is very, very important.

    嗯,Mehdi,你是對的。通常,HPC 的客戶在使用 N + 1 或 N + 2 技術時總是落後一步。現在由於人工智慧的需求如此強勁,這是一回事。但最重要的是他們需要某種性能,但功耗非常非常重要。

  • And when we talk about A16, we have another power efficiency improvement close to 20%. That's a big value for all the AI data centers applications. So that help my customer moving faster because of every time when we talk about the AI data center, if you notice that the first thing they talk about is power supply, electricity, right? So they did not tell you, say the power efficiency is very important, but they tell you that we had to build a very big electricity power plant to support the AI data center. So that tells you how important it is.

    當我們談到 A16 時,我們的功率效率又提高了近 20%。對於所有 AI 資料中心應用程式來說,這都具有巨大的價值。這可以幫助我的客戶更快地行動,因為每次我們談論人工智慧資料中心時,如果你注意到他們談論的第一件事就是電源、電力,對嗎?所以他們沒有告訴你,說電力效率非常重要,但他們告訴你我們必須建造一個非常大的發電廠來支援人工智慧資料中心。這說明它有多重要。

  • And TSMC is a technology, by the way. A16 is a further improvement of the N2 node, so it's not a surprise for TSMC to expect for those people in AI datacenter industry, they want to use A16.

    順便說一句,台積電是一種技術。A16 是 N2 節點的進一步改進,因此台積電對 AI 資料中心產業人士的期望並不令人意外,他們希望使用 A16。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Mehdi. We'll take the last question from the floor. We have one participant here. Felix Pan from KGI.

    好的。謝謝你,C.C。謝謝你,Mehdi。我們將回答大家提出的最後一個問題。我們這裡有一位參與者。凱基證券的 Felix Pan。

  • Felix Pan - Analyst

    Felix Pan - Analyst

  • I only have one question about the overseas expansion. I think C.C. earlier mentioned that the second fab for N3, there's a strong demand. So you guys need to speed up several quarters for that. Together with, I think, the US government also raised the investment tax credit cap for next year. So I wonder how this shape or how this speed up your ramping schedule for the second fab and how this impact to the overseas fab dilution for the guidance Wendell has given earlier.

    關於海外擴張,我只有一個問題。我認為 C.C. 之前提到過,N3 的第二家工廠有強勁的需求。所以你們需要加快幾個季度來實現這一目標。同時,我認為美國政府也提高了明年的投資稅收抵免上限。所以我想知道這會如何影響或加速第二家晶圓廠的產能提升計劃,以及這對溫德爾之前給出的指導中的海外晶圓廠稀釋有何影響。

  • I think the follow-up question will be, if you guys speed up the US investment, is that impact to other regional fabs, like Japan and Germany as well? And lastly, is that possible to break down the overseas capex and domestic capex going forward? That’s all my questions.

    我認為後續的問題是,如果你們加快對美國的投資,這是否也會對其他地區的晶圓廠產生影響,例如日本和德國?最後,未來是否有可能細分海外資本支出和國內資本支出?這就是我所有的問題。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Two questions. Okay. So Felix's question on our overseas expansion plans. He notes that, yes, C.C. said we're speeding up the schedule for the second fab in the US. So how -- and he also notes the recent passage of the US ITC bill. So how does this impact or affect our ramp schedules in our US expansion? And what is the implication or impact to the overseas dilution? That's number one.

    兩個問題。好的。菲利克斯的問題是關於我們的海外擴張計劃。他指出,是的,C.C. 說我們正在加快美國第二家工廠的建設進度。那麼——他也注意到美國國際貿易委員會法案最近獲得通過。那麼這對我們在美國擴張的進度計畫有何影響?這對海外稀釋有何影響或影響?這是第一點。

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, that's two questions. Okay. Let me share with you about our ramp-up schedule. It's totally because of our customers' demand. And we appreciate the US government increased the ITC from 25% to 35%. We appreciate that. It helped.

    嗯,這是兩個問題。好的。讓我與你們分享一下我們的提升計劃。這完全是因為我們的客戶的需求。我們讚賞美國政府將進口稅稅率從25%提高到35%。我們對此表示感謝。它有幫助。

  • But the real schedule is because of our customers' demand. So we have to prepare the capacity to meet their demand. That's the number one consideration.

    但真正的時間表是根據我們客戶的需求而定的。因此我們必須做好準備以滿足他們的需求。這是首要考慮因素。

  • Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Wendell Huang - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • The margin impact, it is positive, although not that significant in the five-year period. Think about this, the ITC is used to offset the asset value. And the benefit comes when depreciation starts. So it gets amortized.

    利潤率的影響是正面的,儘管在五年期間並不那麼顯著。想想看,ITC 是用來抵銷資產價值的。當折舊開始時,好處就出現了。所以它被攤銷了。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. And then Felix's second question is how does the ramp and speed up of the US cluster expansion, how is this impacting our expansion plans in Japan and Europe, if it does at all?

    好的。然後 Felix 的第二個問題是,美國集群擴張的速度和速度如何?這會對我們在日本和歐洲的擴張計畫產生什麼影響?

  • C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    C.C. Wei - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, you think about TSMC expansion, the oversea fab. In the US, it's a leading edge. In Japan, it's special technology. To be specific, most of the time, it's for the CMOS sensor, automotive industry.

    嗯,你想想台積電的擴張,海外晶圓廠。在美國,這是一個領先優勢。在日本,這是一項特殊技術。具體來說,大多數時候是用於CMOS感測器、汽車產業。

  • So they are all not in the same field. So actually, it's not affect -- the investment in the US or investing on the leading edge does not affect the investment in Japan or in Germany.

    所以他們都不在同一個領域。所以實際上,它不會產生影響——對美國的投資或對前沿領域的投資不會影響對日本或德國的投資。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Felix. Okay, everyone. So this concludes our question-and-answer session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, and both are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

    謝謝你,C.C。謝謝你,Felix。好的,各位。我們的問答環節到此結束。在今天的會議結束之前,請注意,會議的重播將在 30 分鐘內提供。會議記錄將於 24 小時後公佈,並可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

  • So thank you very much for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay well, and we hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day. Thank you.

    非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望大家繼續保持健康,並希望您下個季度再次加入我們。再見,祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。