台積電 ADR (TSM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(spoken in foreign language)

（用外語說）

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference and conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加台積電2024年第四季財報和電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com where you can also download the earnings release materials.

今天的活動透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網路直播，您也可以在其中下載財報發布資料。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter, 2024 followed by our guidance for the first quarter, 2025.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼財務長黃文德爾先生將總結我們 2024 年第四季的營運情況，然後是我們對 2025 年第一季的指導。

Afterwards, Mr. Huang; and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，黃先生；以及台積電董事長兼執行長 C.C. 博士魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。

Then, we will open both the floor and the line for the question-and-answer session.

然後，我們將開放問答環節。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risk and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please refer to the Safe Harbor notice that appears in our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now, I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在，我想把麥克風交給台積電首席財務官黃文德爾先生，讓他總結營運情況和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the fourth quarter of 2024.

我的演講將從 2024 年第四季的財務亮點開始。

After that, I will provide the guidance for the first quarter of 2025.

之後，我將提供 2025 年第一季的指導。

Fourth-quarter revenue increased 14.3% sequentially in NT, supported by strong demand for our industry leading 3nm and 5nm technologies.

由於對業界領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁需求，北領地第四季營收環比成長 14.3%。

Gross margin increased by 1.2 percentage points sequentially to 59%, mainly reflecting a higher-capacity utilization rate and productivity gains, partially offset by the dilution of 3nm ramp-up.

毛利率季增 1.2 個百分點，達到 59%，主要反映了產能利用率和生產率的提高，但部分被 3nm 產能成長的稀釋所抵銷。

With operating leverage, total operating expenses accounted for 10% of net revenue.

憑藉營運槓桿，總營運費用佔淨收入的10%。

Thus, operating margin increased by 1.5 percentage points sequentially to 49%.

因此，營業利益率較上季成長 1.5 個百分點，達到 49%。

Overall, our fourth-quarter EPS was TWD14.45 and ROE was 36.2%.

整體而言，我們第四季的 EPS 為 TWD14.45，ROE 為 36.2%。

Now, let's move on to revenue by technology. 3nm process technology contributed 26% of wafer revenue in the fourth quarter. 5nm and 7nm accounted for 34% and 14% respectively.

現在，讓我們繼續討論技術收入。 3nm製程技術貢獻了第四季晶圓收入的26%。 5nm和7nm分別佔34%和14%。

Advanced technologies, defined as 7nm and below, accounted for 74% of wafer revenue.

7奈米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的74%。

On a full-year basis, 3nm revenue accounted for 18% of 2024 wafer revenue; 5nm, 34%; 7nm, 17%.

全年來看，3nm營收佔2024年晶圓營收的18%； 5奈米，34%； 7奈米，17%。

Advanced technologies accounted for 69% of total wafer revenue, up from 58% in 2023.

先進技術佔晶圓總收入的 69%，高於 2023 年的 58%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform, HPC increased 19% quarter over quarter to account for 53% of our fourth-quarter revenue.

接下來按平台劃分的營收貢獻方面，HPC 環比成長 19%，佔第四季營收的 53%。

Smartphone increased 17% to account for 35%.

智慧型手機成長了 17%，達到 35%。

IoT decreased 15% to account for 5%.

IoT 下降 15%，佔 5%。

Automotive increased 6% to account for 4%.

汽車產業成長了 6%，達到 4%。

DCE decreased 6% to account for 1%.

大連商品交易所下跌 6%，比 1%。

On a full-year basis.

按全年計算。

HPC increased 58% year on year.

HPC較去年同期成長58%。

Smartphone, IoT, automotive, DCE increased 23%, 2%, 4%, and 2% respectively in 2024.

智慧型手機、物聯網、汽車、DCE 到 2024 年分別成長 23%、2%、4% 和 2%。

Overall, HPC accounted for 51% of our 2024 revenue.

整體而言，HPC 占我們 2024 年營收的 51%。

Smartphone accounted for 35%.

智慧型手機佔35%。

IOT accounted for 6%.

物聯網佔比6%。

And automotive accounted for 5%.

其中汽車佔5%。

Moving on to the balance sheet, we ended the fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD2.4 trillion or USD74 billion.

轉向資產負債表，第四季末我們的現金和有價證券達到 2.4 兆新台幣（即 740 億美元）。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD184 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD71 billion in accounts payable and increase of TWD99 billion in accrued liabilities and others.

負債方面，流動負債增加1,840億元新台幣，主要是應付帳款增加710億元新台幣、應計負債及其他增加990億元新台幣所致。

In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days declined by 1 day to 27 days, while inventory days decreased by 7 days to 80 days, primarily due to shipment of N3 and N5 wafers.

從財務比率來看，應收帳款週轉天數減少1天至27天，庫存天數減少7天至80天，主要是因為N3和N5晶圓的出貨。

Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD620 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD362 billion in CapEx, and distributed TWD104 billion for the first quarter ‘24 cash dividend.

在現金流和資本支出方面，第四季度我們從營運中產生了約6,200 億新台幣的現金，資本支出為3,620 億新台幣，並為第一季度派發了1,040 億新台幣- 24現金股利。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD241 billion to TWD2.1 trillion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 2,410 億新台幣，達到 2.1 兆新台幣。

In US dollar terms, our fourth-quarter capital expenditures totaled USD11.2 billion.

以美元計算，我們第四季的資本支出總額為 112 億美元。

Now, let me recap our performance in 2024.

現在，讓我回顧一下我們2024年的表現。

Due to the strong demand for our 3nm and 5nm process technologies, we continue to outperform the foundry industry in 2024.

由於對我們的3奈米和5奈米製程技術的強勁需求，我們在2024年繼續跑贏代工產業。

Our revenue increased 30% in US dollar terms to USD90 billion, or increased 33.9% in NT to TWD2.89 trillion.

以美元計算，我們的收入成長了 30%，達到 900 億美元；以新台幣計算，我們的收入成長了 33.9%，達到 2.89 兆新台幣。

Gross margin increased 1.7 percentage points to 56.1%, mainly reflecting improvements in overall capacity utilization, partially offset by 3nm dilution and higher electricity costs.

毛利率成長1.7個百分點至56.1%，主要反映整體產能利用率的改善，部分被3奈米稀釋和較高的電力成本所抵銷。

With operating leverage, our operating margin increased 3.1 percentage points to 45.7%.

憑藉營運槓桿，我們的營運利潤率增加了 3.1 個百分點，達到 45.7%。

Overall, full-year EPS increased 39.9% to TWD45.25 and ROE increased 4.1 percentage point to 30.3%.

整體而言，全年每股盈餘增加 39.9% 至新台幣 45.25 元，淨資產收益率增加 4.1 個百分點至 30.3%。

On cash flow, we spent USD29.8 billion or TWD956 billion in CapEx, generated TWD1.8 trillion in operating cash flow and TWD870 billion in free cash flow.

在現金流方面，我們的資本支出為 298 億美元，即 9,560 億新台幣，產生了 1.8 兆新台幣的營運現金流和 8,700 億新台幣的自由現金流。

We paid TWD363 billion in cash dividends in 2024, up 24.5% year over year.

2024年現金分紅3,630億元新台幣，較去年成長24.5%。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了財務摘要。

Now, let's turn to our current quarter guidance.

現在，讓我們轉向當前季度的指導。

We expect our business in the first quarter to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI-related demand.

我們預計第一季的業務將受到智慧型手機季節性的影響，但人工智慧相關需求的持續成長部分抵消了影響。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our first-quarter revenue to be between USD25 billion and USD25.8 billion, which represents a 5.5% sequential decline or a 34.7% year-over-year increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第一季營收將在 250 億美元至 258 億美元之間，季減 5.5%，中間值年增 34.7%。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD1 to TWD32.8, gross margin is expected to be between 57% and 59% operating margin between 46.5% and 48.5%.

基於1美元兌32.8新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在57%至59%之間，營業利益率介於46.5%至48.5%之間。

Regarding tax rate, our effective tax rate was 16.7% in 2024.

關於稅率，2024年我們的有效稅率為16.7%。

For 2025, we expect our effective tax rate to be between 16% and 17%.

2025 年，我們預計有效稅率將在 16% 至 17% 之間。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Now, let me turn to our key messages.

現在，讓我談談我們的關鍵訊息。

I will start by talking about our fourth quarter '24, and first quarter '25 profitability.

我將首先談論我們 24 年第四季和 25 年第一季的獲利能力。

Compared to third quarter, our fourth-quarter gross margin increased by 120 basis points sequentially to 59%, primarily due to a higher capacity utilization rate and productivity gains, partially offset by dilution from the continued ramp up of our 3nm technology.

與第三季相比，我們第四季的毛利率環比增長了120 個基點，達到59%，這主要是由於產能利用率和生產率的提高，但部分被3nm 技術持續提升帶來的稀釋所抵消。

We have just guided our first-quarter gross margin to decrease by 100 basis points to 58% at the midpoint.

我們剛剛指導第一季毛利率下降 100 個基點至中點 58%。

This is primarily due to ramp costs associated with N2 and CoWoS expansion, and the start of dilution from our overseas fabs.

這主要是由於與 N2 和 CoWoS 擴張相關的斜坡成本，以及我們的海外晶圓廠開始稀釋。

As a reminder, six factors determine TSMC's profitability: leadership technology development and ramp-up, pricing, cost reduction, technology mix, capacity utilization and foreign exchange rate.

提醒一下，決定台積電獲利能力的六個因素是：領先的技術開發和提升、定價、成本降低、技術組合、產能利用率和匯率。

Looking at full-year 2025, given the six factors, there are a few puts and takes I would like to share.

展望2025年全年，考慮到這六個因素，我想分享一些看法。

On the one hand, we are working hard to increase our value.

一方面，我們正在努力提升自己的價值。

The dilution impact from our N3 ramp is expected to gradually reduce and we expect our overall utilization rate to moderately increase in 2025.

我們的 N3 產能提升帶來的稀釋影響預計將逐漸減少，我們預計我們的整體利用率將在 2025 年適度增加。

On the other hand, as we have said before, we forecast 2% to 3% margin dilution impact from the ramp-up of our overseas fabs.

另一方面，正如我們之前所說，我們預計海外晶圓廠的擴張將導致 2% 至 3% 的利潤攤薄影響。

The impact is less than 100 basis points in the first quarter of '25, but we expect it to grow more pronounced throughout the year as our fabs in Kumamoto and Arizona ramp up.

25 年第一季的影響不到 100 個基點，但我們預計，隨著我們在熊本和亞利桑那州的晶圓廠的擴建，這一影響將在全年變得更加明顯。

We also expect inflationary costs, including higher electricity prices in Taiwan, to impact our gross margin by at least 1% in 2025.

我們也預計，通膨成本（包括台灣電價上漲）將在 2025 年影響我們的毛利率至少 1%。

In addition, there are some ramp-up costs associated with N2 and further conversion of N5 to N3 capacity, which, together, we expect to impact our gross margin by about 1%.

此外，還有一些與 N2 和 N5 產能進一步轉換為 N3 產能相關的提升成本，我們預計這些成本將影響我們的毛利率約 1%。

Finally, we have no control over the foreign exchange rate, but that may be another factor in 2025.

最後，我們無法控制外匯匯率，但這可能是 2025 年的另一個因素。

Longer term, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate and considering our global manufacturing footprint expansion plans, we continue to forecast a long-term growth margin of 53% and higher is achievable.

從長遠來看，排除匯率的影響並考慮到我們的全球製造足跡擴張計劃，我們繼續預測可實現 53% 及更高的長期成長率。

Next, let me talk about our 2025 capital budget and depreciation.

接下來我說一下我們2025年的資本預算和折舊。

Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years.

每年，我們的資本支出都用於預測未來幾年的成長。

And our CapEX and capacity planning is based on the long-term market demand profile.

我們的資本支出和產能規劃是基於長期市場需求狀況。

At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years.

在台積電，較高的資本支出水準始終與未來幾年較高的成長機會相關。

In 2024, we spent USD29.8 billion as we continue to invest to support our customers' growth.

2024 年，我們花了 298 億美元繼續投資以支持客戶的成長。

With our strong technology leadership and differentiation, we are well positioned to capture the multiyear structure demand from the industry megatrends of 5G, AI, and HPC.

憑藉強大的技術領先地位和差異化優勢，我們有能力抓住5G、人工智慧和高效能運算等行業大趨勢的多年結構需求。

In 2025, we expect our capital budget to be between USD38 billion and USD42 billion, as we invest to capture the future growth.

到 2025 年，我們預計資本預算將在 380 億美元至 420 億美元之間，因為我們的投資是為了抓住未來的成長。

Out of the USD38 billion and USD42 billion CapEx for 2025, about 70% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies.

2025 年 380 億美元和 420 億美元的資本支出中，約 70% 的資本預算將分配給先進製程技術。

About 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies.

大約10%到20%將用於專業技術。

And about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging testing, mask-making, and others.

大約10%到20%將用於先進封裝測試、掩模製造等。

Our depreciation expense is expected to increase by high single-digit percentage year over year in 2025 as newly incurred depreciation will be partially offset by other nodes rolling off depreciation.

預計 2025 年，我們的折舊費用將同比增長較高的個位數百分比，因為新發生的折舊將被其他節點滾存摺舊部分抵消。

Even as we invest for the future growth with this level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders.

即使我們以 2025 年的資本支出水準為未來成長進行投資，我們仍然致力於為股東帶來獲利成長。

We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis.

我們也持續致力於每年和每季提供可持續且穩定成長的每股現金股利。

Now, let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

現在，讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

Thank you.

謝謝。

Wendell.

溫德爾.

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

First, let me start with the conclusion of 2024 and our 2025 outlook. 2024 was a mixed year of recovery for the global semiconductor industry.

首先，讓我從2024年的總結和2025年的展望開始。 2024年是全球半導體產業復甦喜憂參半的一年。

AI-related demand was strong, while other applications saw only a very mild recovery, as macroeconomics condition weighed on consumer sentiment and the end-market demand.

與人工智慧相關的需求強勁，而其他應用僅出現非常溫和的復甦，因為宏觀經濟狀況打壓了消費者信心和終端市場需求。

Concluding 2024, the Foundry 2.0 industry, which we define as all logical wafer manufacturing, packaging, testing, mask-making, and others increased 6% year over year, slightly lower than our previous forecast.

截至 2024 年，晶圓代工 2.0 產業（我們將其定義為所有邏輯晶圓製造、封裝、測試、光罩製造等）年增 6%，略低於我們先前的預測。

Supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies, TSMC's revenue increased 30% year over year in US dollar term, outperforming the foundry industry growth.

得益於領先製程技術的強勁需求，台積電營收以美元計算年增30%，跑贏代工產業成長速度。

Entering 2025, we expect fabless semiconductor inventory to have returned to a healthier level exiting 2024.

進入 2025 年，我們預計無晶圓廠半導體庫存將恢復到 2024 年後的健康水準。

We forecast the Foundry 2.0 industry to grow 10% year over year in 2025, supported by robust AI-related demand and a mild recovery in other end market segments.

我們預計，在人工智慧相關需求強勁和其他終端細分市場溫和復甦的支持下，Foundry 2.0產業到2025年將年增10%。

Supported by our technology leadership and broad customer base, we are confident we can continue to outperform the industry growth.

在我們的技術領先地位和廣泛的客戶群的支持下，我們有信心能夠繼續超越行業成長。

We expect 2025 to be another strong growth year for TSMC, and forecast our full-year revenue to increase by close to mid-20s% in US dollar term.

我們預計 2025 年將是台積電另一個強勁成長的一年，並預測我們的全年營收以美元計算將成長接近 20% 左右。

Now, I will talk about the AI demand and TSMC's long-term growth outlook.

現在，我將談談人工智慧的需求和台積電的長期成長前景。

We observed robust AI-related demand from our customers throughout 2024.

我們觀察到 2024 年客戶對人工智慧相關的需求強勁。

Revenue from AI accelerators, which we now define as AI GPU, AI ASIC, and HBM controller for AI training and inference in the data center, accounted for close to mid-teens percent our total revenue in 2024.

來自 AI 加速器的收入（我們現在將其定義為用於資料中心 AI 訓練和推理的 AI GPU、AI ASIC 和 HBM 控制器）在 2024 年占我們總收入的近百分之十左右。

Even after more than tripling in 2024, we forecast our revenue from AI accelerator to double in 2025, as the strong surge in AI-related demand continues.

即使在 2024 年成長兩倍多後，隨著人工智慧相關需求的持續強勁成長，我們預計人工智慧加速器的營收將在 2025 年翻倍。

As a key enabler of AI applications, the value of our technology platform is increasing, as customers rely on TSMC to provide the most advanced process and packaging technologies at scale in the most efficient and cost-effective way.

作為人工智慧應用的關鍵推動者，我們的技術平台的價值正在不斷增加，因為客戶依賴台積電以最高效和最具成本效益的方式大規模提供最先進的工藝和封裝技術。

To address the structural increase in the long-term market demand profile, TSMC is working closely with our customer to plan our capacity and investing in leading-edge specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support the growth.

為了因應長期市場需求的結構性成長，台積電正在與客戶密切合作，規劃我們的產能，並投資於領先的專業和先進封裝技術，以支持成長。

As we have said before, TSMC employs a disciplined and a throughout capacity planning system to evaluate and judge the market demand to determine the appropriate capacity to build.

正如我們之前所說，台積電採用嚴格的、全程的產能規劃系統來評估和判斷市場需求，以確定合適的產能建設。

This is especially important when we have such high forecasted demand from AI-related business.

當我們對人工智慧相關業務的預測需求如此之高時，這一點尤其重要。

At the same time, we are committed to earning a sustainable and healthy return that enables us to continue to invest to support our customers' growth, while delivering profitable growth for our shareholders.

同時，我們致力於獲得可持續和健康的回報，使我們能夠繼續投資以支持客戶的成長，同時為我們的股東帶來獲利成長。

Underpinned by our technology leadership and broad customer base, we now forecast the revenue growth from AI accelerators to approach a mid-40% CAGR for the five-year period starting off the already higher base of 2024.

在我們的技術領先地位和廣泛的客戶群的支持下，我們現在預測，從 2024 年已經較高的基數開始，人工智慧加速器的收入成長將在五年內接近 40% 的複合年增長率。

We expect AI accelerators to be the strongest driver of our HPC platform growth and the largest contributor in terms of our overall incremental revenue growth in the next several years.

我們預期人工智慧加速器將成為我們 HPC 平台成長的最強勁驅動力，也是未來幾年我們整體增量收入成長的最大貢獻者。

Looking ahead, as the world's most reliable and effective capacity provider, TSMC is playing a critical and integral role in the global semiconductor industry.

展望未來，台積電作為全球最可靠、最有效的產能供應商，在全球半導體產業中扮演著至關重要且不可或缺的角色。

With our technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust, we are well positioned to address the growth from the industry megatrend of 5G, AI, and HPC with our differentiated technologies.

憑藉我們的技術領先、卓越製造和客戶信任，我們有能力利用差異化技術來應對 5G、人工智慧和 HPC 行業大趨勢的成長。

For the five-year period starting from 2024, we expect our long-term revenue growth to approach a 20% CAGR in US dollar term, fueled by all four of our growth platforms, which are smartphone, HPC, IoT and automotive.

從 2024 年開始的五年期間，我們預計在智慧型手機、高效能運算、物聯網和汽車這四個成長平台的推動下，以美元運算的長期收入成長將接近 20% 的複合年增長率。

Next, let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update.

接下來，讓我來談談我們的全球製造足跡更新。

All our overseas decisions are based on our customers' needs, as they value some geographic flexibilities, and the necessary level of government support.

我們所有的海外決策都是基於客戶的需求，因為他們重視一定的地域彈性和必要的政府支援。

This is also to maximize the value for our shareholders.

這也是為了我們股東的價值最大化。

In the US, we have a long-standing, good relationship with the US government, dating back to even before our Arizona fab project announcement in May 2020.

在美國，我們與美國政府有著長期良好的關係，甚至可以追溯到 2020 年 5 月宣布亞利桑那州晶圓廠計畫之前。

We have received a strong commitment and support from the US customers and the US Federal, state, and city government, and are making substantial progress.

我們得到了美國客戶和美國聯邦、州、市政府的大力承諾和支持，並正在取得實質進展。

Building on the successful result of our earlier engineering wafer production, we were able to pull ahead the production schedule of our first fab in Arizona.

基於我們早期工程晶圓生產的成功成果，我們能夠提前完成亞利桑那州第一座晶圓廠的生產計畫。

Our first fab has already entered the high-volume production in 4Q '24, utilizing N4 process technology with a yield comparable to our fabs in Taiwan.

我們的第一座晶圓廠已於 24 年第 4 季進入大批量生產，採用 N4 製程技術，產量與我們在台灣的晶圓廠相當。

We expect a smooth ramp-up process.

我們期望一個順利的提升過程。

And with our strong manufacturing capability and execution, we are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Arizona as from our fabs in Taiwan.

憑藉我們強大的製造能力和執行力，我們有信心在亞利桑那州工廠提供與台灣工廠相同水準的製造品質和可靠性。

Our plans for the second fab and third fab in Arizona are also on track.

我們在亞利桑那州建造第二座晶圓廠和第三座晶圓廠的計畫也正在按計畫進行。

These fabs will utilize even more advanced technologies such as our N3, N2 and A16, based on our customers' needs.

這些晶圓廠將根據客戶的需求，採用更先進的技術，例如我們的 N3、N2 和 A16。

Thus, TSMC will continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers' success while remaining a key partner and enabler of the US semiconductor industry.

因此，台積電將繼續在幫助客戶取得成功方面發揮關鍵且不可或缺的作用，同時仍是美國半導體產業的重要合作夥伴和推動者。

Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japanese Central, prefectural, and local government, our progress is also very good.

接下來在日本，由於日本中央、縣、地方政府的大力支持，我們的進展也非常好。

Our first specialty technology fab in Kumamoto has started volume production at the end of 2024, with very good yield.

我們位於熊本的第一家專業技術工廠已於 2024 年底開始量產，良率非常好。

Construction of our second specialty fab is scheduled to begin this year.

我們的第二個特種工廠計劃於今年開始建造。

In Europe, we have received strong commitment from the European Commission, and the German Federal, state, and city government.

在歐洲，我們得到了歐盟委員會以及德國聯邦、州和市政府的堅定承諾。

We are progressing smoothly with our plans to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany, focusing on automotive and industrial application.

我們在德國德勒斯登建造一家專注於汽車和工業應用的專業技術工廠的計畫進展順利。

In Taiwan, we continue to receive support from Taiwan government, and we are investing in and expanding our advanced technology and packaging capacities.

在台灣，我們繼續得到台灣政府的支持，我們正在投資和擴大我們的先進技術和封裝產能。

Given the robust multi-year demand for our 3nm technology, we continue to expand our 3nm capacity in Tainan Science Park.

鑑於對我們的 3 奈米技術的多年需求強勁，我們繼續擴大台南科學園的 3 奈米產能。

We are also preparing for multiple phases of 2nm fabs in both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung Science Parks to support the strong structural demand from our customers.

我們也正在新竹和高雄科學園區準備多期2奈米晶圓廠，以支援客戶強勁的結構性需求。

We are also expanding our advanced packaging facilities across several locations in Taiwan.

我們也在台灣的多個地點擴展我們的先進封裝設施。

As we have said before, under today's fragmented globalization environment, overseas fab costs are higher for everyone, including TSMC and all other semiconductor manufacturers.

正如我們之前所說，在當今碎片化的全球化環境下，海外晶圓廠成本對所有人來說都更高，包括台積電和所有其他半導體製造商。

We will leverage our fundamental competitive advantages of manufacturing technology leadership and large-scale manufacturing base to be the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturer in the regions that we operate, while supporting our customers' growth.

我們將利用製造技術領先和大規模製造基地的根本競爭優勢，成為我們經營所在地區最高效、最具成本效益的製造商，同時支持客戶的成長。

Finally, I will talk about the N2 and A16 introduction.

最後說一下N2和A16的介紹。

Our 2nm and A16 technologies lead the industry in addressing the insatiable need for energy-efficient computing, and almost all the innovators are working with TSMC.

我們的 2nm 和 A16 技術在解決對節能計算永不滿足的需求方面處於行業領先地位，幾乎所有創新者都與台積電合作。

We expect the number of the new tape-outs for 2nm technology in the first 2 years to be higher than both 3nm and 5nm in their first two years, fueled by both smartphone and HPC applications.

我們預計，在智慧型手機和 HPC 應用的推動下，2nm 技術前兩年的新流片數量將高於前兩年的 3nm 和 5nm。

N2 will deliver full-node performance and power benefits, with 10 to 15 percent speed improvement at the same power, or [25%] (corrected by company after the call) to 30% power improvement at the same speed, and more than 15% chip density increase, as compared with N3E.

N2 將提供全節點效能和功耗優勢，在相同功率下速度提高 10% 到 15%，或在相同速度下功率提高 [25%]（由公司在通話後更正）到 30%，並且超過 15%與N3E 相比，晶片密度增加了%。

N2 is well on track for volume production in second half of 2025 as scheduled, with a ramp profile similar to N3.

N2 預計將在 2025 年下半年按計劃量產，其產能曲線與 N3 類似。

With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of N2 family.

隨著我們不斷增強的策略，我們也推出了 N2P 作為 N2 系列的擴充。

N2P features further performance and power benefits on top of N2.

N2P 在 N2 的基礎上具有進一步的性能和功耗優勢。

N2P will support both smartphone and HPC applications, and volume production is scheduled for second half 2026.

N2P將支援智慧型手機和HPC應用，預定2026年下半年量產。

We also introduced A16 featuring Super Power Rail, or SPR, as a separate offering.

我們也推出了採用超級電源軌（SPR）的 A16，作為單獨的產品。

TSMC’s SPR is an innovative, best-in-class backside power delivery solution that is first in the industry to incorporate a novel backside metal scheme that preserves gate density and device width flexibility to maximize the product benefits.

TSMC 的 SPR 是一款創新、一流的背面供電解決方案，在業界率先採用了新穎的背面金屬方案，可保留閘極密度和裝置寬度靈活性，從而最大限度地提高產品優勢。

Compared with the N2P, A16 provide a further 8% to 10% speed improvement at the same power, or 15% to 20% power improvement at the same speed and additional 7% to 10% chip density gain.

與 N2P 相比，A16 在相同功率下速度進一步提升 8% 至 10%，或在相同速度下功率提升 15% 至 20%，並額外提供 7% 至 10% 的晶片密度增益。

A16 is the best suitable for specific HPC product with complex signal route and dense power delivery network.

A16最適合具有複雜訊號路徑和密集電力傳輸網路的特定HPC產品。

Volume production is scheduled for second half 2026.

量產計劃於 2026 年下半年進行。

We believe N2, N2P, A16 and its derivative will further extend our technology leadership position and enable TSMC to capture the growth opportunity going into the future.

我們相信N2、N2P、A16及其衍生產品將進一步擴大我們的技術領先地位，並使台積電能夠抓住未來的成長機會。

This concludes our key messages, and thank you for your attention.

我們的關鍵訊息到此結束，感謝您的關注。

Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements.

謝謝你，C.C.我們準備好的演講到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time to allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions.

在開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家，請將問題限制在兩個以內，以便讓所有參與者都有機會提問。

Questions will be taken from both the floor and from the call.

將從現場和電話會議中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Event Instructions) Now, we will begin the Q&A session.

（活動說明）現在，我們開始問答環節。

We'll take the first few questions here from the floor and then go to online.

我們將在現場回答前幾個問題，然後轉到網上。

I think, maybe left, middle, right.

我想，也許是左、中、右。

So why don't we start?

那我們為什麼不開始呢？

Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

戈庫爾·哈里哈蘭，摩根大通。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Happy New Year, management team.

新年快樂，管理團隊。

My first question is on the TSMC's US future strategy.

我的第一個問題是關於台積電未來的美國戰略。

There has been a lot of changes recently.

最近發生了很多變化。

Taiwan relaxed the N-1 restriction.

台灣放寬了N-1限制。

There was a news about that a week back.

一周前就有這樣的消息。

C. C., you met Elon Musk as well recently.

C.C.，你最近也認識了伊隆馬斯克。

So you said there are a lot of developments that you've discussed.

所以你說你們討論了很多進展。

Your key IDM competitor seems to be struggling as well, while your Arizona fab seems to be ramping up quite well.

您的主要 IDM 競爭對手似乎也在苦苦掙扎，而您的亞利桑那州晶圓廠似乎正在蓬勃發展。

So in light of all these, I just wanted to understand the longer-term strategy.

因此，鑑於所有這些，我只是想了解長期策略。

Would you start -- would you consider investing in latest node in the US?

您會開始考慮投資美國的最新節點嗎？

Because so far, it has been N-1.

因為到目前為止，已經是N-1了。

Now you don't have the restriction from the Taiwan government to go and invest in the latest node.

現在你不再受到台灣政府的限制去投資最新的節點。

What has been your feedback in whatever discussions you have had with the incoming President Trump administration because they have talked a lot about CHIPS Act and everything, but they're also supportive.

在與即將上任的川普政府進行的任何討論中，您的回饋是什麼，因為他們談論了很多有關《CHIPS 法案》和其他方面的內容，但他們也表示支持。

Your original investment was during President Trump first term.

您最初的投資是在川普總統第一任期進行的。

And lastly, I think, Wendell, I think last time you had mentioned you're not very keen on taking over any IDM fabs.

最後，我想，Wendell，我想上次您提到您不太熱衷於接管任何 IDM 晶圓廠。

Has that thinking changed, especially given TSMC has the potential to become even more stronger partner for the US in terms of bringing up US local manufacturing?

這種想法是否已經改變，特別是考慮到台積電有潛力成為美國在推動美國本土製造方面更強大的合作夥伴？

Sorry, long question.

抱歉，問題很長。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Indeed, a very long question.

確實，一個很長的問題。

I think Gokul's question is looking at TSMC and our strategies in terms of global expansion, particularly in the US.

我認為戈庫爾的問題是看台積電和我們在全球擴張方面的策略，特別是在美國。

He notes that Taiwan has recently relaxed or said they relaxed the N-1 rule.

他指出，台灣最近放鬆了或說他們放鬆了 N-1 規則。

And C. C. has met several -- many of our large customers in the US And our Arizona fab is ramping quite well.

C.C. 已經會見了幾個——我們在美國的許多大客戶，而且我們亞利桑那州的工廠進展順利。

So his question really is on the longer-term strategy, I believe, three parts, number one, what is the feedback or sort of discussions ongoing with the next administration in the US?

因此，我認為他的問題實際上是關於長期戰略，分為三個部分，第一，與美國下一屆政府正在進行的反饋或討論是什麼？

Secondly, would we consider taking over IDM's fabs?

其次，我們會考慮接手IDM的晶圓廠嗎？

Has that thinking changed?

這種想法改變了嗎？

And last on the new node, maybe we'll go one by one.

最後在新節點上，也許我們會一一進行。

I almost forgot your question already.

我差點忘了你的問題了。

Okay.

好的。

First one, the technology node.

第一個，技術節點。

Actually, it's not that we don't want to ramp up the same technology as in Taiwan.

事實上，我們並不是不想提升與台灣相同的科技。

But if you look at the -- when we're ramping up, introduce a new technology into manufacturing, the fab is -- the process is so complicated.

但如果你看看——當我們加大力度，將新技術引入製造時，晶圓廠——這個過程是如此複雜。

So it has to be very close to the R&D people.

所以它必須與研發人員非常接近。

So the initial phase of the ramping up always come from the fab close to R&D.

因此，加速的初始階段總是來自靠近研發部門的晶圓廠。

So in that sense, we want to ramp up the same kind of technology in the US, but that practically is a little bit difficult.

所以從這個意義上說，我們希望在美國推廣同樣的技術，但這其實有點困難。

So Taiwan will always be first.

所以台灣永遠是第一名。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

It's not because of N-1 or N’s limitation.

這並不是因為 N-1 或 N 的限制。

No.

不。

It's practically, we just have to ramp up a new node in Taiwan.

實際上，我們只需要在台灣建立一個新節點。

And the second, do we change our strategy to expand faster or something?

第二，我們是否會改變策略以加快擴張速度或採取其他措施？

Again, this is -- we always say that we build the capacity overseas is due to customers' need.

再說一遍，我們總是說我們在海外建立產能是出於客戶的需求。

If my customer has a very high demand, what should I do?

如果我的客戶有很高的要求，我該怎麼辦？

I build more fabs, right, with the necessary government support, by the way, okay?

順便說一句，我在必要的政府支持下建造了更多晶圓廠，好嗎？

Talking about the government.

談論政府。

Let me assure you that we have a very frank and open communication with the current government and with the future one also.

讓我向你們保證，我們與現任政府以及未來政府進行了非常坦誠和開放的溝通。

I cannot say anything more than that.

除此之外我不能再說什麼了。

Okay.

好的。

What

什麼

--

--

IDM fab.

IDM 工廠。

That's my customer.

那是我的客戶。

And now we -- again, our strategy is not based on my IDM competitors' status.

現在，我們再次強調，我們的策略並不是基於 IDM 競爭對手的狀況。

They are very good customers.

他們是非常好的客戶。

I like them, and they are very important to TSMC's business also.

我喜歡他們，他們對台積電的業務也非常重要。

That's all I can say.

我只能說這麼多。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe my next question, going to gross margins.

也許我的下一個問題是毛利率。

So Wendell, we are almost approaching 60% gross margin.

所以 Wendell，我們的毛利率幾乎接近 60%。

Last cycle, we peaked at about 60% towards the peak of the cycle.

上一個週期，我們在接近本週期峰值時達到了約 60% 的峰值。

You are expecting the cycle to even strengthen based on guidance that C.C. provided for both AI as well as some improvement in non-AI.

根據 C.C. 的指導，您預計該週期甚至會加強。為人工智慧以及非人工智慧提供了一些改進。

So how should we think about gross margins in this cycle?

那我們該如何看待這個週期的毛利率呢？

Is it realistic that we can get to more than 60% gross margin in this cycle?

這個週期毛利率達到60%以上現實嗎？

And related to that, could you help us understand the US -- especially the US fab, overseas fabs, but especially US fab dilution.

與此相關，您能否幫助我們了解美國—尤其是美國晶圓廠、海外晶圓廠，尤其是美國晶圓廠的稀釋。

What are the key factors there?

這裡面有哪些關鍵因素呢？

Because as you mentioned, yield is already approaching or almost close to Taiwan yield.

因為正如您所提到的，收益率已經接近或接近台灣收益率。

So is it basically cycle time is longer?

那麼基本上週期時間是否更長？

Or is it that some other costs are much higher in the US fab because new fab depreciation is probably fairly similar compared to the Taiwan fab.

或者是美國晶圓廠的其他一些成本要高得多，因為新晶圓廠的折舊可能與台灣晶圓廠相當相似。

Okay.

好的。

So Gokul's second question is on gross margin.

因此，戈庫爾的第二個問題是毛利率。

Again, two parts, he noted gross margin is almost approaching 60%.

再說一遍，他指出毛利率幾乎接近 60%，分成兩部分。

In 2022, the last cycle, it was also around this type of level.

2022年，最後一個週期，也是圍繞著這樣的水準。

We have said that this year is another very strong growth year for TSMC.

我們說過，今年是台積電又一個非常強勁成長的一年。

So this question is how should we think about gross margins in this current cycle?

那麼這個問題就是我們該如何看待當前週期的毛利率？

Can we approach or get to 60% or low 60s type of again?

我們能否再次接近或達到 60% 或 60 多歲的水平？

And then the second part is more specific to the US in terms of the cost gap.

第二部分更具體地針對美國的成本差距。

What are the US cost factors leading to the dilution impact?

美國哪些成本因素會導致稀釋影響？

Gokul, first question on the gross margin.

Gokul，第一個問題是關於毛利率的。

As we said, there are six factors affecting the profitability.

正如我們所說，影響獲利能力的因素有六個。

Every year, different factors play different roles.

每年，不同的因素發揮不同的作用。

But for example, if the utilization is extremely high, like last cycle, it is not impossible for us to reach what you just said.

但是比如說，如果利用率非常高，就像上一個週期一樣，我們達到你剛才說的話也不是不可能。

And secondly, the US fab cost, it is more expensive in the US, mainly because of several reasons.

其次，美國晶圓廠成本，在美國比較貴，主要有幾個原因。

Number one, the smaller scale, right?

第一，規模較小，對嗎？

Now number two, the higher price in the supply chain; and number three, the very early stage of the ecosystem.

第二，供應鏈中的價格較高；第三，生態系的早期階段。

So if you add all these up, as we said, 2% to 3% dilution from our overseas fabs every year in the next 5 years.

因此，如果將所有這些加起來，正如我們所說，未來 5 年我們的海外晶圓廠每年都會稀釋 2% 到 3%。

If I use the 2% to 3% and do some math, it feels like the overseas fab is starting at, I don't know, 10% gross margin or 5% gross margin.

如果我用 2% 到 3% 做一些計算，感覺海外晶圓廠的毛利率是從 10% 到 5% 開始的，我不知道。

Just adding factors, obviously, it's not how it works, but I'm just doing outside in.

只是添加因素，顯然，這不是它的工作原理，但我只是從外到內做。

Is that right?

是這樣嗎？

Is that the right kind of ballpark in terms of thinking about margin?

就利潤率而言，這是正確的大致想法嗎？

All we can share is the 2% to 3%.

我們能分享的只是2%到3%。

Yes.

是的。

I don't think TSMC has ever started a fab at 10% gross margin.

我不認為台積電曾經以 10% 的毛利率開設晶圓廠。

Gokul, we are working hard to improve it.

Gokul，我們正在努力改進它。

Laura Chen, Citigroup -- Citibank.

Laura Chen，花旗集團－花旗銀行。

Congratulations for the good results.

恭喜取得好成績。

I just want to have more details about your review.

我只是想了解有關您的評論的更多詳細資訊。

I mean I think people are kind of looking for your updated long-term CAGR growth.

我的意思是，我認為人們正在尋找您最新的長期複合年增長率。

So I believe that 20% starting from a very -- already very high base in 2024 is a really good long-term objective.

因此，我相信，從 2024 年已經非常高的基數開始，20% 是一個非常好的長期目標。

But just wondering that aside from the strong AI demand, what's your view on the traditional applications like PC and the smartphone growth and particularly for this year?

但只是想知道，除了強勁的人工智慧需求之外，您對個人電腦和智慧型手機等傳統應用的成長有何看法，尤其是今年的成長？

Okay.

好的。

So Laura's first question is looking -- she notes that we have updated our long-term CAGR to be approaching 20%, revenue growth in US dollars, starting off even the high base of 24%.

因此，勞拉的第一個問題是——她指出，我們已經將長期複合年增長率更新為接近 20%（以美元計算的收入增長），甚至從 24% 的高基數開始。

So her question is, of course, AI demand is part of that, but what about smartphone and PC. And I think your question is specific to this year, C.C., 2025.

所以她的問題是，人工智慧需求當然是其中的一部分，但智慧型手機和個人電腦呢？我認為你的問題是針對今年，C.C.，2025 年的。

This year is still mild growth for PC and smartphone.

今年個人電腦和智慧型手機的成長仍然溫和。

But everything is AI related.

但一切都與人工智慧有關。

So you can start to see why we have confidence to give you close to 20% CAGR in the next five years.

因此，您可以開始明白為什麼我們有信心在未來五年內為您提供接近 20% 的複合年增長率。

AI, you look at a smartphone, they will put the AI functionality inside.

人工智慧，你看看智慧型手機，他們會把人工智慧功能放進去。

And not only that, so the silicon content will be increased.

不僅如此，因此矽含量也會增加。

In addition to that, actually, the replacement cycle will be shortened.

除此之外，實際上更換週期也會縮短。

And also they need to go into the very advanced technology because if you want to put a lot of functionality inside a small chip, you need a much more advanced technology to put silicons in.

他們還需要採用非常先進的技術，因為如果你想在一個小晶片中加入很多功能，你需要一種更先進的技術來放入矽。

Put it all together that even smartphone, the unit growth is almost low single digit, but then the silicon and the replacement cycle and the technology migration that give us more growth than the adjusted unit growth, similar reason for PC.

總而言之，即使是智慧型手機，單位成長幾乎是低個位數，但矽、更換週期和技術遷移給我們帶來了比調整後的單位成長更多的成長，與 PC 的原因類似。

So we can kind of expect those AI edge devices, they were all based on 2nm next year, perhaps second half?

所以我們可以期待那些人工智慧邊緣設備，它們明年（也許是下半年）都會基於 2nm？

Leading edge technology, that's why I say.

領先的技術，這就是我說的原因。

Okay.

好的。

And also my next question is about AI.

我的下一個問題是關於人工智慧的。

I noted that these times, you include the HBM controller into your AI business revenues definition.

我注意到，這些時候，您將 HBM 控制器納入您的 AI 業務收入定義中。

So can you provide us more update about what the HBM based business opportunities could be?

那麼您能否向我們提供有關基於 HBM 的商業機會的更多最新資訊？

And previously, TSMC kind of announced cooperation with the key memory suppliers globally.

此前，台積電曾宣布與全球主要記憶體供應商合作。

Can you give us more details or updates on the progress of this business engagement?

您能否向我們提供有關此業務合作進展的更多詳細資訊或最新情況？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Laura.

謝謝你，勞拉。

So Laura's second question is on HBM controllers.

Laura 的第二個問題是關於 HBM 控制器的。

She notes that our definition of AI accelerators includes memory controllers or HBM controllers.

她指出，我們對 AI 加速器的定義包括記憶體控制器或 HBM 控制器。

So her question is, well, how do we see this opportunity?

所以她的問題是，我們要如何看待這個機會？

Or what is the opportunity for TSMC?

或者說台積電的機會是什麼？

And what is the progress of this working with our memory partners?

與我們的記憶體合作夥伴的合作進展如何？

We are working with all the memory suppliers, all of them.

我們正在與所有記憶體供應商合作。

And that's because TSMC’s logic chip or logic technology is more advanced, and that meets our customers' requirement.

這是因為台積電的邏輯晶片或邏輯技術更先進，滿足了客戶的要求。

So all of them are working with TSMC.

所以他們都在和台積電合作。

Now we start to see some of the products coming out.

現在我們開始看到一些產品問世。

But the high volume, probably you need to wait for another half or one year to see the high volume and big contribution to TSMC's revenue.

但量大的話，可能還要再等半年、一年才能看到量大、對台積電營收貢獻大的情況。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll move to this side of the room.

我們將搬到房間的這一側。

I guess we have Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

我想我們有來自摩根士丹利的查理陳。

C. C., Wendell, and Jeff, first of all, happy New Year.

C.C.、Wendell 和 Jeff，首先祝大家新年快樂。

I think it's going to be a very exciting year, given your bullish outlook and also lots of news going on, right?

我認為這將是非常激動人心的一年，因為您對前景持樂觀態度，並且發生了很多新聞，對吧？

So let me start with overnights that US seems to put the new framework on restricting China's AI business, right?

那麼讓我先從隔夜開始，美國似乎推出了限制中國人工智慧業務的新框架，對嗎？

So I'm wondering whether that will create some business impact to your China business and how are you going to manage that?

所以我想知道這是否會對您的中國業務產生一些業務影響以及您將如何管理？

And also, for some chips in the middle, high performance like crypto mining, autonomous driving chip, do you think they’re counted as cloud AI?

還有，中間的一些晶片，像是加密挖礦、自動駕駛晶片等高性能的晶片，你覺得算不算雲端AI？

And would TSMC be able to continue to service your China customers?

台積電能否繼續為你們的中國客戶提供服務？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Charlie.

謝謝你，查理。

So Charlie's first question, if I may, sort of extrapolate or summarize is about the announcements of different types of US export restrictions this week pertaining to China and AI-related chips.

因此，查理的第一個問題（如果可以的話）是關於美國本周宣布的與中國和人工智慧相關晶片有關的不同類型的出口限制。

So his question is, what is the impact to TSMC.

所以他的問題是，對台積電有什麼影響。

How does it impact our business?

它如何影響我們的業務？

So far, we look at -- we don't have at all analysis yet, but the first look is not significant, it's manageable.

到目前為止，我們還沒有進行任何分析，但第一眼看起來並不重要，它是可以管理的。

So that meaning that my customers, who are being restricted or something, we are applying for the special permit for them.

這意味著我的客戶受到限製或其他原因，我們正在為他們申請特別許可證。

And we believe that we have a confidence that they will get some permission so long as it's not in the AI area, okay, especially automotive, industry or even you talk about the crypto mining, yes.

我們相信，我們有信心，只要不是人工智慧領域，他們就會獲得一些許可，特別是汽車、工業，甚至你談論的加密貨幣挖礦，是的。

This is super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And my second question is actually a very hot topic recently as well, the CPO.

我的第二個問題其實也是最近很熱門的話題，CPO。

I think your main partner, Jensen, come to Taiwan, this time probably -- besides meeting you, right, probably also want to enable this supply chain.

我想你的主要合作夥伴詹森這次可能會來台灣——除了會見你之外，對吧，可能還想啟用這個供應鏈。

So based on your recent technology symposium, right, you already get ready for your COUPE optical engine, but do you think Taiwan supply chain can really facilitate this CPO?

所以根據你們最近的技術研討會，對吧，你們已經準備好你們的COUPE光學引擎了，但是你們認為台灣供應鏈真的可以促進這個CPO嗎？

Because without these are key components, the next-generation Rubin’s schedule could have some issues.

因為如果沒有這些關鍵組件，下一代魯賓的時間表可能會出現一些問題。

So I think this is part of the first part of the question about how we are going to facilitate the CPO supply chain?

所以我認為這是關於我們將如何促進原棕油供應鏈的問題的第一部分的一部分？

And secondly, to TSMC, your foundry service, right, do you see significant upside with optical networking migrating to CPO?

其次，對於你們的代工服務台積電，你們認為光網路遷移到 CPO 有顯著的優勢嗎？

Because -- I ask this because there are some conventional product like optical transceiver, DSP could be replaced.

因為——我問這個是因為有一些傳統產品，如光收發器、DSP 可以被取代。

Well, Charlie's second question is a very specific topic.

查理的第二個問題是一個非常具體的話題。

He wants to know, well, if I can generalize because we certainly don't comment on customers or their products.

他想知道我是否可以概括，因為我們當然不會評論客戶或其產品。

But in terms of our progress on silicon photonics and CPO, how are we working with customers, how we're preparing as part of our advanced packaging solutions, and what are the opportunities for TSMC as optical moves to silicon photonics and other type of solutions on a general basis.

但就我們在矽光子和 CPO 方面的進展而言，我們如何與客戶合作，我們如何準備作為我們先進封裝解決方案的一部分，以及隨著光學轉向矽光子和其他類型的解決方案，台積電有哪些機會在一般基礎上。

Charlie, that's a very technical question.

查理，這是一個非常技術性的問題。

Silicon photonics, we are working on it, as you said, and we got a good result also.

矽光子學，我們正在研究，正如你所說，我們也取得了很好的成果。

However, a big volume, I don't think it will be in this year or probably we'll wait for 1 or 1.5 years till you can see that the contribution or the volume production.

然而，大批量，我認為今年不會，或者可能我們會等待 1 或 1.5 年，直到你可以看到貢獻或批量生產。

The initial results are quite good, no doubt about it.

初步結果非常好，這是毫無疑問的。

And so my customers are quite happy.

所以我的客戶非常高興。

Okay, thank you, C.C. Operator, we will now move to the questions online.

好的，謝謝你，C.C.接線員，我們現在開始在線提問。

We'll take the first call from the online participant, please.

我們將接聽線上參與者的第一通電話。

Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

布雷特辛普森，Arete 研究公司。

Yeah, thanks very much.

是的，非常感謝。

And can I just say congratulations on reaching 100 billion in annual sales in Q4.

我只能說恭喜您第四季的年銷售額達到了 1000 億。

It's quite a milestone.

這是一個里程碑。

So my first question is in Arizona.

我的第一個問題是在亞利桑那州。

I think, Wendell, you mentioned that we need to see some higher scale.

我想，溫德爾，你提到我們需要看到更高的規模。

So can you update us on the status of Phase 2?

您能否向我們介紹第二階段的最新進展？

It looks like the conduction of this shell is nearly complete, but it would be great to understand more about how you see P2 developing over the course of 2025.

看起來這個 shell 的傳導已接近完成，但如果能更多地了解 P2 在 2025 年的發展情況，那就太好了。

And in terms of pricing US wafers, how are you planning to do this?

在美國晶圓定價方面，你們打算如何做到這一點？

Will you have a US price and a Taiwan price or are you more likely to have a global price regardless of where you make the wafers?

無論您在哪裡生產晶圓，您都會有美國價格和台灣價格，還是更有可能有全球價格？

Okay.

好的。

So Brett's question -- first question is on Arizona, maybe split into two parts.

布雷特的問題——第一個問題是關於亞利桑那州的，可能分為兩個部分。

First is in terms of -- we have already started the volume production of the first fab.

首先是──我們已經開始第一座晶圓廠的大量生產。

So Brett would like an update on the progress of the second fab in terms of the construction of the buildings and the shells, et cetera.

因此，布雷特想了解第二座工廠在建築物和外殼建設等方面的最新進展。

And then the second part would be on the pricing of overseas.

第二部分是關於海外的定價。

As we say there's value to our customers.

正如我們所說，這對我們的客戶有價值。

He wants to know do we charge a separate price?

他想知道我們是否單獨收取價格？

Or is it part of the overall pricing, et cetera, et cetera.

或者它是整體定價的一部分，等等。

Let me answer the second question first.

我先回答第二個問題。

Do we charge a little bit higher?

我們收費高一點嗎？

Yes, we did, because we have a value of geographic flexibility, right?

是的，我們做到了，因為我們具有地域靈活性的價值，對嗎？

And you guys know Made in USA is a premium product.

你們都知道美國製造是優質產品。

Yes, we discussed with our customers, and they all agreed and happy to work with TSMC so that we can -- because of the cost structure over there, so it's a little bit higher price over there.

是的，我們與客戶討論過，他們都同意並很高興與台積電合作，這樣我們就可以——因為那裡的成本結構，所以那裡的價格稍微高一點。

The progress of the first fab is right now in volume production.

目前第一座晶圓廠已進入量產階段。

Second fab we almost finished all the building and start to put the facility, et cetera, et cetera.

第二個工廠，我們幾乎完成了所有建築並開始放置設施，等等。

And we expect that we move the tools [in 2H26] (corrected by company after the call) also.

我們預計我們也會[在 2H26] 移動這些工具（在電話會議後由公司更正）。

And we have a plan that our third fab probably will start very soon, and we will announce it in the later days, okay?

我們有一個計劃，我們的第三座晶圓廠可能很快就會啟動，我們會在稍後宣布，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, C.C. Brett, does that answer your first question?

謝謝你，C.C.布雷特，這回答了你的第一個問題嗎？

And do you have a second one?

你還有第二個嗎？

Yes, very clear.

是的，非常清楚。

And the second question, I wanted to get your perspective.

第二個問題，我想了解您的觀點。

Broadcom's CEO recently laid out a large SAM for AI hyperscalers building out custom silicon.

Broadcom 執行長最近為建造客製化晶片的 AI 超大規模企業設計了一個大型 SAM。

I think he was talking about a million accelerated clusters from each of the customers he has in the next two or three years.

我認為他正在談論未來兩三年內來自他的每個客戶的一百萬個加速叢集。

What's TSMC's perspective on all this?

台積電對此有何看法？

I'm sure you've spent a lot of time verifying what hyperscalers are applying over the years to come?

我確信您已經花了大量時間來驗證超大規模企業在未來幾年將應用哪些內容？

And how comfortable are you with the scale of what's being implied here?

您對這裡所暗示的規模感到滿意嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Brett's second question is looking at AI, I guess, specifically AI custom chips or ASICs.

所以 Brett 的第二個問題是關注人工智慧，我猜，特別是人工智慧客製化晶片或 ASIC。

He notes that one of our customers recently laid out a very strong or large addressable SAM market for AI hyperscalers using custom silicon.

他指出，我們的一位客戶最近為使用客製化晶片的 AI 超大規模設備佈局了一個非常強大或龐大的可尋址 SAM 市場。

Lots of them talking about clusters of 1 million chips.

他們中的很多人都在談論 100 萬個晶片的集群。

So he wants to know what is TSMC's view, how do we see this trend in terms of AI ASICs as part of the AI demand megatrend?

所以他想知道台積電的看法是什麼，我們如何看待人工智慧 ASIC 的這個趨勢，作為人工智慧需求大趨勢的一部分？

Brett, I'm not going to answer the question of the specific number, but let me assure you that - whether it's an ASIC or it's a graphic, they all need the very leading-edge technology, and they're all working with TSMC, okay?

Brett，我不打算回答具體數字的問題，但我向你保證——無論是ASIC還是顯示卡，它們都需要非常前沿的技術，而且它們都在與台積電合作， 好的？

So -- and the second one is, is the demand real as a number that my customers said.

那麼，第二個問題是，需求是否像我的客戶所說的數字一樣真實。

I will say that the demand is very strong.

我想說，需求是非常強烈的。

Is that enough to answer your question, Brett?

這足以回答你的問題嗎，布雷特？

That's great.

那太棒了。

Okay. Thank you, Brett. Operator, do we have anyone else on the line?

好的。謝謝你，布雷特。接線員，還有其他人在線上嗎？

It seems not.

看來不是。

We don't.

我們不這樣做。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Brett.

謝謝你，布雷特。

Operator, do we have anyone else on the line?

接線員，還有其他人在線上嗎？

It seems not.

看來不是。

Then let's -- okay, we don't.

那麼我們——好吧，我們不這麼做。

Then let's go back to the floor.

然後讓我們回到地板上。

Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

盧小龍，高盛。

To be honest, I'm a bit surprised that the long-term gross margin target doesn't really change it.

說實話，我有點驚訝長期毛利率目標並沒有真正改變它。

I believe TSMC's value is definitely more than selling the -- pass on the cost.

我相信台積電的價值絕對超過出售——轉嫁成本。

I believe that TSMC needs to invest a lot more in R&D to maintain the leadership.

我認為台積電需要在研發上投入更多，才能維持領先地位。

TSMC suggested to raise the gross margin target in 2022 with higher R&D requirement, with higher profitable target, right?

台積電建議提高2022年的毛利率目標，研發要求更高，獲利目標更高，對嗎？

So I asked the same question 2 quarters ago, which is in the process of pricing negotiation, which is understandable.

所以我在兩個季度前就問過同樣的問題，當時正在定價談判過程中，這是可以理解的。

But I think the price negotiation is pretty much done.

但我認為價格談判基本上已經完成。

What's the discrepancy here?

這裡有什麼差異？

Why TSMC cannot raise the profitability target?

台積電為何無法調高獲利目標？

Okay.

好的。

So Bruce's first question, he wants to know, again, our long-term gross margin.

布魯斯的第一個問題是，他想再次了解我們的長期毛利率。

Why are we not changing the target of 53% and higher, okay?

為什麼我們不改變 53% 或更高的目標，好嗎？

He correctly notes that certainly TSMC's value is increasing.

他正確地指出，台積電的價值肯定正在增加。

And certainly, TSMC would need to invest a lot of money in R&D and capacity to support our customers' growth.

當然，台積電需要在研發和產能方面投入大量資金來支持客戶的成長。

So we have always had a focus on earning the right return.

因此，我們始終注重賺取適當的回報。

He also notes in 2022, while our gross margin used to be about 50%, then we raised it to 53% and higher.

他還指出，到 2022 年，我們的毛利率曾經約為 50%，後來我們將其提高到 53% 甚至更高。

So the question is, why is it not and higher, I guess?

所以問題是，我猜為什麼它不更高？

Bruce, as we said, six factors affecting the profitability.

布魯斯，正如我們所說，影響獲利能力的六個因素。

Every year, different factors have different weight.

每年，不同的因素有不同的權重。

Now 2 things to note.

現在有兩件事需要注意。

Number one, starting from this year, overseas fab expansion, 2 to 3 percentage point impact every year for the next 5 years.

第一，從今年開始，海外晶圓廠擴張，未來5年每年都會影響2到3個百分點。

The other thing to note, macro environment uncertainty, which may lead to impacting the global economy, which may lead to end market demand.

另外要注意的是，宏觀環境的不確定性，可能會對全球經濟造成影響，可能導致終端市場需求下降。

Now, having said that, we are in a capital-intensive industry.

話雖如此，我們現在處於資本密集行業。

So we will need to have to earn a healthy return to continue to invest to support our customer, support their growth and also deliver a profitable growth to our shareholders.

因此，我們需要獲得健康的回報，才能繼續投資以支持我們的客戶、支持他們的成長，並為我們的股東帶來獲利成長。

And you mentioned about the raising of long-term gross margins back in 2022 to 53% and higher.

您提到 2022 年將長期毛利率提高到 53% 甚至更高。

And we have been able to deliver that “and higher” part since then.

從那時起，我們就能夠交付該「以及更高」的零件。

So given all the above, we continue to think that 53% and higher gross margin is achievable, and we work very hard to achieve on the “higher” part.

因此，考慮到上述所有因素，我們仍然認為 53% 及更高的毛利率是可以實現的，並且我們非常努力地實現「更高」部分。

Okay.

好的。

I'll try next two quarters.

我會在接下來的兩個季度嘗試。

For the CoWoS capacity, TSMC has been very aggressive in expanding the capacity.

對於CoWoS產能，台積電一直非常積極地擴大產能。

However, the application is highly concentrated in AI at the current stage, which there are certain noise around it.

但現階段應用高度集中在人工智慧領域，存在一定的噪音。

When can we see non-AI application such as servers, smartphone or anything else can be -- can start to adopt CoWoS capacity in case there is any fluctuation in the AI demand?

我們什麼時候可以看到非人工智慧應用程序，例如伺服器、智慧型手機或其他任何東西可以開始採用 CoWoS 容量，以防人工智慧需求出現任何波動？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bruce.

謝謝你，布魯斯。

So Bruce's second question is on CoWoS capacity.

Bruce 的第二個問題是關於 CoWoS 的容量。

In his words, we have been very aggressive to expand the capacity, but his concern is highly concentrated with AI-related demand.

用他的話來說，我們一直在非常積極地擴大產能，但他的關注高度集中在人工智慧相關的需求上。

So his question is, when do we expect or -- to see more non-AI application adoption of CoWoS solutions?

所以他的問題是，我們什麼時候期望或——看到更多非人工智慧應用程式採用 CoWoS 解決方案？

Well, yes, today is all AI focused, and we have very tight capacity and cannot even meet customers' need.

嗯，是的，今天都是人工智慧，我們的產能非常緊張，甚至無法滿足客戶的需求。

But whether other products will adopt this kind of CoWoS approach?

但其他產品是否會採用這種CoWoS方式呢？

They will.

他們會的。

It's coming, and we know that it's coming.

它即將到來，我們知道它即將到來。

So that's all I can say.

我只能說這麼多。

When?

什麼時候？

It's coming.

它來了。

Okay.

好的。

I will try next quarter.

我會在下個季度嘗試。

Non-CPU and non-server chip.

非CPU和非伺服器晶片。

Let me give you a hint.

讓我給你一個提示。

Arthur Lai, Macquarie.

亞瑟·賴，麥格理。

Hi, C.C. and Wendell and Jeff, Arthur Lai from Macquarie.

嗨，C.C.以及來自麥格理的 Wendell 和 Jeff、Arthur Lai。

So first of all, congrats on the strong gross margin.

首先，祝賀強勁的毛利率。

I just have a very quick follow-up on the US and JP expansion as this is important.

我只是對美國和日本的擴張進行了非常快速的跟進，因為這很重要。

My client keeps asking me.

我的客戶一直問我。

So do you have operational strategy to mitigate the cost gap between the overseas fab and Taiwan fab?

那麼你們有營運策略來縮小海外晶圓廠與台灣晶圓廠之間的成本差距嗎？

Yes, I think, C. C., you hint like you’ll work on it and improve the gross margin.

是的，我想，C.C.，你暗示你會努力改善毛利率。

But during the Chinese New Year, I read Morris Chang’s autobiography, and he mentioned that the strategy is “copy exactly from the Taiwan mother fab.”

但過年的時候，我讀到了張忠謀的自傳，他提到策略是「照搬台灣母廠」。

So I want to understand how we maintain the high yield and also drive the cost down.

所以我想了解我們如何保持高產量並降低成本。

Okay.

好的。

So other question is about our overseas expansion.

另一個問題是關於我們的海外擴張。

His question is related to the cost gap and what is our operational strategies to mitigate the cost gap.

他的問題與成本差距以及我們縮小成本差距的營運策略是什麼有關。

How are we doing this internally in our fab operations and strategies to do so?

我們如何在晶圓廠運作和策略中做到這一點？

You mentioned my boss's book.

你提到了我老闆的書。

That's meaning that you really read it.

這意味著你真的讀過它。

What he said as copy exactly is whatever Taiwan's improvement, the US will copy over there.

他說的抄襲，確切地說就是台灣有什麼進步，美國就抄過去。

It doesn't mean that this year, next year and the following year will be the same.

並不代表今年、明年、後年都會一樣。

We continue to improve.

我們不斷改進。

That improved the cost structure, both in Taiwan and in the US.

這改善了台灣和美國的成本結構。

And we also try very hard to find out new methodology or whatever that I cannot share with you right now.

我們也非常努力地尋找新的方法或任何我現在無法與您分享的東西。

But it will give Arizona fab some benefit.

但這會為亞利桑那工廠帶來一些好處。

And so we will improve -- what minimize the gap between the cost structure between US and Taiwan.

因此，我們將進行改進——盡量縮小美國和台灣之間成本結構的差距。

And we are working on that.

我們正在努力解決這個問題。

But no matter what I said, we will be the best fab over there.

但無論我說什麼，我們都會是那裡最好的晶圓廠。

Second follow-up question probably is on Wendell.

第二個後續問題可能是關於溫德爾的。

You just mentioned that there's 200 bps or 300 bps margin dilution, right?

您剛剛提到有 200 個基點或 300 個基點的保證金稀釋，對吧？

So can you give us a 1 level down, like the variable cost and the fixed cost?

那麼您能否為我們降低 1 個級別，例如變動成本和固定成本？

Maybe half?

也許一半？

Or maybe which one is higher?

或者也許哪一個比較高？

Okay.

好的。

So Arthur's second question is on the overseas dilution of 2% to 3%.

所以阿瑟的第二個問題是關於海外2%到3%的稀釋。

He is asking if we can provide a further breakdown in terms of how much of that is composed from variable costs, how much of that is from the fixed cost, et cetera.

他詢問我們是否可以進一步細分，其中有多少是由可變成本組成，有多少是由固定成本組成，等等。

Arthur, we really don't give breakdown on these numbers, but both of them are higher.

亞瑟，我們確實沒有對這些數字進行細分，但它們都更高。

That's all I can share with you.

這就是我能與你分享的一切。

Rick Hsu, Daiwa Securities.

Rick Hsu，大和證券。

So the first one, C. C., can you share with us your view on this year's global semiconductor revenue forecast ex-memory?

那麼第一個C.C.，您能跟我們分享一下您對今年全球半導體除內存之外的收入預測的看法嗎？

Or any driver by applications in priority across the main application?

或主應用程式中優先應用程式的任何驅動程式？

Okay.

好的。

So Rick's first question, he's asking for our forecast of the semiconductor industry, what we used to provide as semi ex-Mem.

所以里克的第一個問題是，他詢問我們對半導體產業的預測，我們過去作為半前記憶體專家提供的預測。

But of course, we have already given Foundry 2.0. Then he would like the outlook by end market application in terms of ranking.

當然，我們已經給了 Foundry 2.0。然後他想了解終端市場應用的排名前景。

Maybe just a comment on the overall end markets as a whole.

也許只是對整個終端市場的評論。

Rick, I think the memory business will grow this year also.

里克，我認為今年記憶體業務也會成長。

But all I can say is that HBM, will grow very fast.

但我只能說 HBM 將會成長得非常快。

And I don't comment on other memories because of it's not Logic.

我不會評論其他記憶，因為它不是邏輯。

And we have already provided Foundry 2.0 to grow 10% year-over-year.

我們已經提供了 Foundry 2.0，年成長 10%。

That's our industry forecast for 2025.

這是我們對 2025 年的產業預測。

Just a quick follow-up.

只是快速跟進。

Can I use your Foundry 2.0 market growth as a proxy of the global semi ex-memory?

我可以用你們的 Foundry 2.0 市場成長來代表全球半成品記憶體嗎？

So his question is, can we use Foundry 2.0 as a proxy for semiconductor ex-memory?

那麼他的問題是，我們可以用Foundry 2.0作為半導體前記憶體的代理嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And the second one is very quick.

而且第二個也很快。

About your CoWoS and SoIC capacity ramp, can you give us more color this year?

關於你們的 CoWoS 和 SoIC 產能提升，今年可以給我們更多的介紹嗎？

Because recently, there seems to be a lot of market noise - some add orders, some cut orders.

因為最近市場噪音似乎很大——有的加單，有的減單。

So I would like to see your view on the CoWoS ramp.

所以我想聽聽您對 CoWoS 坡道的看法。

Okay.

好的。

So the second question is lots of market rumors here.

所以第二個問題是這裡有很多市場傳言。

So he would like to know any comment we can provide on CoWoS ramp in 2025.

所以他想知道我們可以就 2025 年 CoWoS 升級提供任何評論。

Rick, as you said, there's a lot of rumor.

里克，正如你所說，有很多謠言。

That's a rumor.

那是謠言。

I assure you.

我向你保證。

We are working very hard to meet the requirement of my customers' demand.

我們正在努力滿足客戶的需求。

So cut the order, that won't happen.

所以取消訂單，就不會發生這種情況。

I actually continue to increase.

我其實還在繼續增加。

So we are -- again, I will say that we are working very hard to increase the capacity.

因此，我再次強調，我們正在非常努力地提高產能。

Okay, well, thank you.

好的，好的，謝謝。

Okay, let's move back to operator.

好吧，讓我們回到操作員。

Is there anyone online?

有人在線上嗎？

Robert Sanders, Deutsche Bank.

羅伯特‧桑德斯，德意志銀行。

I just had a question on AI demand.

我剛才有一個關於人工智慧需求的問題。

Is there a scenario where HBM is more of a constraint on the demand rather than CoWoS, which seems to be the biggest constraint at the moment?

是否存在一種場景，HBM 更多的是對需求的約束，而不是 CoWoS，後者似乎是目前最大的約束？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Okay.

好的。

So Rob is asking us to comment on AI demand and HBM status constraint?

那麼 Rob 要求我們對 AI 需求和 HBM 狀態限制發表評論？

Or what is the bigger constraint in AI demand?

或者說AI需求更大的限制因素是什麼？

I don't have other suppliers, but I know that we have a very tight capacity to support the AI demand.

我沒有其他供應商，但我知道我們支援人工智慧需求的能力非常有限。

I don't want to say I'm the bottleneck.

我不想說我是瓶頸。

TSMC always working very hard with customers to meet their requirement.

台積電始終與客戶努力合作，以滿足他們的要求。

That's all I can say.

我只能說這麼多。

You have a second question?

你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just on SoIC, there's been more discussion in the market around your smartphone customers adopting SoIC.

就 SoIC 而言，市場上圍繞智慧型手機客戶採用 SoIC 進行了更多討論。

Can you just discuss if there's any kind of inflection point here, whether it's in the PC domain or the smartphone domain?

您能否討論一下這裡是否存在某種拐點，無論是在 PC 領域還是在智慧型手機領域？

Or is this still more of a data center story?

或者這更像是一個數據中心的故事？

Okay.

好的。

Well, Rob's second question is on SoIC adoption.

Rob 的第二個問題是關於 SoIC 的採用。

His question basically in a nutshell is when do we see an inflection point for smartphone application to adopt SoIC?

簡而言之，他的問題是我們什麼時候會看到智慧型手機應用程式採用 SoIC 的轉折點？

Today, SoIC's demand is still focused on AI applications, okay.

如今，SoIC的需求仍然集中在AI應用上，好吧。

For PC or for other area, it's coming, but not right now.

對於 PC 或其他領域，它即將到來，但不是現在。

Sunny Lin, UBS.

林陽光，瑞銀。

And so my first question is to try to get a bit clarity on the cloud growth for 2025.

因此，我的第一個問題是嘗試弄清楚 2025 年的雲端成長情況。

I think longer term, without a doubt, the technology definitely has lots of potential for demand opportunities.

我認為從長遠來看，毫無疑問，該技術絕對具有巨大的需求機會潛力。

But I think if we look at 2025 and 2026, I think there could be increasing uncertainties coming from maybe CSPs’ spending, macro, or even some of the supply chain challenges.

但我認為，如果我們展望 2025 年和 2026 年，我認為可能會增加來自 CSP 支出、宏觀甚至某些供應鏈挑戰的不確定性。

And so our management just provided a pretty good guidance for this year for sales to double.

因此，我們的管理層為今年的銷售額翻倍提供了相當好的指導。

And so if you look at that number, do you think there is still more upside than downside as we go through 2025 or how should we think about the demand profile for this year and next year?

因此，如果你看一下這個數字，你認為在 2025 年到來之際，上行空間仍然大於下行空間嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Well, Sunny's question is about the AI-related demand.

那麼Sunny的問題就是關於AI相關的需求。

We have said that even after -- more than tripling last year, it will double again in 2025.

我們說過，即使去年增加了兩倍多，到 2025 年也會再增加一倍。

She wants to know is there upside or downside to this?

她想知道這有好處還是壞處？

And also for us to provide an outlook on the 2026 AI growth.

也為我們提供了 2026 年人工智慧成長的展望。

Sunny, I certainly hope there is an upside, but I hope I get -- my team can supply enough capacity to support it.

Sunny，我當然希望有好處，但我希望我的團隊能夠提供足夠的能力來支持它。

Does that give you enough hint?

這給了你足夠的暗示嗎？

Okay, and we also forecast based on the 2024 high number.

好的，我們也是根據 2024 年的高數字來預測的。

We also forecast of mid-40s CAGR for the five years.

我們也預測未來五年的複合年增長率將達到 40 多歲。

That gives you some kind of estimate that you can calculate.

這為您提供了某種可以計算的估計。

Yes.

是的。

Also, mid-40% is the long-term expectation in terms of growth by next few years.

此外，40%左右是未來幾年成長的長期預期。

But how should we think about the trajectory of the growth?

但我們該如何思考成長的軌跡呢？

For sure, this year, it's still pretty strong growth, but do you see a point maybe we see a moderation of growth temporarily and then followed by another ramp.

當然，今年的成長仍然相當強勁，但你是否看到了這一點，也許我們會看到成長暫時放緩，然後又出現另一次成長。

Well, I think Sunny's question, again, is asking us to comment on 2026 outlook, which is a little bit early, or is that -- how do we see the trajectory of the growth?

嗯，我認為 Sunny 的問題再次要求我們對 2026 年的前景發表評論，這有點早了，或者是——我們如何看待成長的軌跡？

I already said, it's a little bit too early.

我已經說過了，現在有點太早了。

Sure.

當然。

No problem.

沒問題。

So I will follow up maybe next quarter as well.

所以我可能也會在下個季度跟進。

And so my second question is on edge AI.

所以我的第二個問題是關於邊緣人工智慧。

And so last year, management thinks by mid-2025 to be the inflection point for it to see more content related to edge AI.

因此，去年，管理層認為到 2025 年中期將是看到更多與邊緣人工智慧相關內容的轉折點。

So based your current visibility, are you seeing clients ramping for this year for the edge AI products, maybe into second half?

因此，根據您目前的可見度，您是否看到今年邊緣人工智慧產品的客戶數量激增，甚至可能進入下半年？

And before, you also mentioned edge AI could potentially drive 5% to 10% die size increase.

之前，您還提到邊緣 AI 可能會推動晶片尺寸增加 5% 到 10%。

Will that be a one-time increase or do you think beyond the 5% to 10% increase for the maybe first gen product, there should be sustainable increase going forward?

這會是一次性的成長，還是您認為除了第一代產品 5% 到 10% 的成長之外，未來還應該有永續的成長？

Okay.

好的。

So Sunny, second question is related to edge AI.

Sunny，第二個問題與邊緣人工智慧有關。

She'd like some more detail or color.

她想要更多細節或顏色。

Do we see customers ramping edge or what we call on-device AI products in the second half of this year?

我們是否會在今年下半年看到客戶的優勢或我們所說的設備上人工智慧產品？

And the second part, in terms of the content increase, 5% to 10% increase is a one-time thing?

而第二部分，從內容的增加來看，5%到10%的增加是一次性的事情嗎？

Is this an ongoing thing?

這是一個持續的事情嗎？

How do we estimate the content benefit from on-device AI?

我們如何估計設備上人工智慧帶來的內容效益？

Okay.

好的。

On the edge AI, our observation - we found out that our customers start to put more neuro processing inside.

在邊緣人工智慧方面，我們的觀察發現我們的客戶開始在內部放入更多的神經處理。

And so we estimate a 5% to 10% more silicon being used.

因此我們估計矽的用量會增加 5% 到 10%。

Can it be every year 5% to 10%?

可以每年5%到10%嗎？

Definitely it’s no, right?

絕對不是，對吧？

So they will move to next node, the technology migration.

因此他們將轉向下一個節點，即技術遷移。

That's also to TSMC's advantage.

這也是台積電的優勢。

Not only that, I also say that the replacement cycle, I think it will be shortened, because of when you have a new toy that with AI functionality inside, everybody wants replacement, replace their smartphone, replace their PCs, and I count that one much more than near 5% increase.

不僅如此，我還說，更換週期，我認為會縮短，因為當你有了一個新的玩具，裡面有AI功能，每個人都想要更換，更換他們的智慧型手機，更換他們的電腦，我算遠超過近5%的增幅。

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you operator.

謝謝運營商。

I think there's one more participant online.

我想還有一位參與者在線上。

So we'll take the last question from online participant, please.

我們將回答線上參與者的最後一個問題。

But I think the last caller just dropped the line.

但我認為最後一個打電話的人剛剛掛斷了電話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brad Lin, Bank of America.

布拉德林，美國銀行。

Thank you for squeezing me in.

謝謝你把我擠進去。

So Happy New Year and taking my questions.

新年快樂並回答我的問題。

I would like to answer two questions.

我想回答兩個問題。

First question would be on the CoWoS as well.

第一個問題也與 CoWoS 有關。

So we have observed an increasing margin of advanced packaging.

因此，我們觀察到先進封裝的利潤不斷增加。

Could you remind us the CoWoS contribution of last year?

您能否提醒我們去年 CoWoS 的貢獻？

And do you expect the margin to kind of approach the corporate average or even exceed it, after the so-called value reflection this year?

在今年所謂的價值反映之後，您預計利潤率會接近企業平均甚至超過它嗎？

That would be my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

So Brad's first question is very specific to CoWoS.

因此，Brad 的第一個問題是針對 CoWoS 的。

Basically, he wants to know what is the revenue contribution from CoWoS last year?

基本上，他想知道CoWoS去年的營收貢獻是多少？

And what is the margin profile?

保證金概況是怎樣的？

Maybe we can talk about advanced packaging.

也許我們可以談談先進封裝。

Brad, we don't break down in different segments of the advanced packaging.

布拉德，我們不會分解先進封裝的不同部分。

But overall speaking, advanced packaging and testing accounted for over 8% of revenue last year, and it will account for over 10% this year.

但整體來看，去年先進封測佔營收比重超過8%，今年將佔超過10%。

In terms of gross margins, it is better.

從毛利率來看，還是比較好的。

It is better than before, but still below the corporate average.

比以前好一些，但仍低於公司平均。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then my second question will be on the IDM.

我的第二個問題是關於 IDM 的。

So we have seen IDMs increasingly rely on TSMC.

所以我們看到IDM越來越依賴台積電。

And then do we still expect the IDM to support our long-term growth?

那我們還期望IDM能夠支持我們的長期成長嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Brad's second question, I think, is on IDM and IDM outsourcing.

我認為 Brad 的第二個問題是關於 IDM 和 IDM 外包。

He does note that we do see more IDM outsourcing business.

他確實指出，我們確實看到了更多的 IDM 外包業務。

So is this part of our long-term growth outlook CAGR?

那麼，這是我們長期成長前景複合年增長率的一部分嗎？

Again, let me repeat again.

再一次，讓我再說一次。

They are our very good customers.

他們是我們非常好的客戶。

And we work together.

我們一起工作。

I don't say they rely on TSMC.

我並不是說他們依賴台積電。

We are partners.

我們是合作夥伴。

And I really hope that's a long-term relationship will be there, for sure.

我真的希望這段關係能夠持續下去，這是肯定的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Brad.

謝謝你，C.C.謝謝你，布拉德。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This concludes our Q&A session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，會議重播將在 30 分鐘內提供。

The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, and certainly, both will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

文字記錄將在 24 小時後發布，當然，兩者都可以透過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

So thank you, everyone, for joining us today online and in person.

謝謝大家今天在線和親自加入我們。

We'd like to wish everyone a Happy New Year, and hope everyone continues to stay well, and I hope you'll join us again next quarter.

我們祝大家新年快樂，希望大家繼續保持健康，希望你們下個季度再次加入我們。

Good-bye, and thank you.

再見，謝謝你。

Have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。