台積電 ADR (TSM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone and welcome to TSMC’s third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加台積電 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC’s Director of Investor Relations and your host for today, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.

我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人，台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 透過現場音訊網路直播舉辦我們的財報電話會議，您也可以在該網站下載財報發布資料。

(Conference Instructions) The format for today's event will be as follows.

（會議說明） 今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC’s Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the third quarter 2024, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter 2024.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼財務長黃文德爾先生將總結我們 2024 年第三季的營運情況，然後是我們對 2024 年第四季的指導。

Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，黃先生與台積電董事長兼執行長 C.C.魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。

Then we will open the line for a question and answer session.

然後我們將開通問答環節。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。

Please do refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.

請務必參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now, I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's, CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將電話轉給台積電財務長黃文德爾先生，以獲取營運摘要和當前季度指引。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Good afternoon everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the third quarter of 2024.

我的演講將從 2024 年第三季的財務亮點開始。

After that, I will provide the guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024.

之後，我將提供 2024 年第四季的指導。

Third quarter revenue increased 12.8% sequentially in NT, as our business was supported by strong smartphone and AI related demand for our industry leading 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technologies.

北領地第三季營收季增 12.8%，因為我們的業務得到了對業界領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁智慧型手機和人工智慧相關需求的支持。

Gross margin increased by 4.6% points sequentially to 57.8%, mainly reflecting a higher capacity utilization rate and cost improvement efforts.

毛利率較上季成長4.6個百分點至57.8%，主要反映了產能利用率的提高和成本改善的努力。

Due to operating leverage, total operating expenses accounted for 10.4% of net revenue.

由於營運槓桿，總營運費用佔淨收入的10.4%。

Thus operating margin increased by 5% points sequentially to 47.5%.

因此，營業利潤率比上一季增加了 5 個百分點，達到 47.5%。

Overall, our third quarter EPS was TWD12.54 and ROE was 33.4%.

整體而言，我們第三季 EPS 為新台幣 12.54，ROE 為 33.4%。

Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3 nanometer process technology contributed 20% of wafer revenue in the third quarter while 5 nanometer and 7 nanometer accounted for 32% and 17% respectively.

現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。 3奈米製程技術貢獻了第三季晶圓收入的20%，而5奈米和7奈米製程技術分別佔32%和17%。

Advanced technologies defined as 7nanometer and below accounted for 69% of wafer revenue.

7奈米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的69%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform.

接下來是平台的營收貢獻。

HPC increased 11% quarter over quarter to account for 51% of our third quarter revenue.

HPC 環比成長 11%，佔第三季營收的 51%。

Smartphone increased 16% to account for 34%.

智慧型手機成長了 16%，佔 34%。

IOT increased 35% to account for 7%.

IOT 成長 35%，佔 7%。

Automotive increased 6% to account for 5%.

汽車產業成長了 6%，達到 5%。

DCE decreased 19% to account for 1%.

大連商品交易所下跌 19%，比 1%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

繼續看資產負債表。

We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD2.2 trillion or USD69 billion.

截至第三季末，我們的現金和有價證券為 2.2 兆新台幣（即 690 億美元）。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD31 billion, while long term interest bearing debt decreased by TWD38 billion.

負債方面，流動負債增加310億元新台幣，長期帶息負債減少380億元新台幣。

This change was primarily driven by the reclassification of TWD42 billion in bonds payable from noncurrent to current liabilities.

這項變化主要是由於 420 億新台幣的應付債券從非流動負債重新分類為流動負債所致。

In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remain steady at 28 days.

從財務比率來看，應收帳款週轉天數穩定在28天。

Inventory days increased by four days to 87 days, primarily due to the prebuild of N3 and N5 wafers.

庫存天數增加了四天，達到 87 天，主要是由於 N3 和 N5 晶圓的預製。

Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the third quarter, we generated about TWD392 billion.

在現金流和資本支出方面，第三季我們創造了約 3,920 億新台幣。

In cash from operations, spent TWD207 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD91 billion for fourth quarter '23 cash dividend.

營運現金方面，資本支出支出 2,070 億新台幣，並派發 23 年第四季現金股利 910 億新台幣。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD88 billion to TWD1.9 trillion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 880 億新台幣，達到 1.9 兆新台幣。

In US dollar terms, Our third quarter capital expenditures totaled USD6.4 billion.

以美元計算，我們第三季的資本支出總計 64 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了財務摘要。

Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向當前季度的指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between USD26.1 billion and USD26.9 billion which represents a 13% sequential increase or a 35% year over year increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第四季營收將在 261 億美元至 269 億美元之間，季增 13%，中位數年增 35%。

Based on exchange rate assumption of USD1 to TWD32, gross margin is expected to be between 57% and 59%.

根據1美元兌32新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在57%至59%之間。

Operating margin between 46.5% and 48.5%.

營業利益率在 46.5% 至 48.5% 之間。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Now let me turn to our key messages.

現在讓我談談我們的關鍵訊息。

I will start by talking about our third quarter '24 and fourth quarter '24 profitability.

我將首先談論我們 24 年第三季和 24 年第四季的獲利能力。

Compared to the second quarter, our third quarter growth margin increased by 460 basis points sequentially to 57.8%, primarily due to a higher capacity utilization rate and better cost improvement efforts including productivity gains.

與第二季相比，我們第三季的成長率較上季成長了 460 個基點，達到 57.8%，這主要是由於更高的產能利用率和更好的成本改善措施（包括生產力提高）。

Compared to our third quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end of the range provided three months ago by 230 basis points, mainly due to a higher than expected overall capacity utilization rate.

與我們第三季的指導相比，我們的實際毛利率超出三個月前提供的範圍上限230個基點，主要是由於整體產能利用率高於預期。

We have just guided our fourth quarter gross margin to increase by 20 basis points to 58% at the midpoint.

我們剛剛指導第四季毛利率成長 20 個基點，達到中位數 58%。

This is primarily due to a higher overall capacity utilization rate in the fourth quarter, partially offset by continued dilution from N3 ramp-up, higher electricity prices in Taiwan, and N5 to N3 tool conversion cost.

這主要是由於第四季度整體產能利用率較高，但部分被 N3 產能增加、台灣電價上漲以及 N5 到 N3 工具轉換成本的持續稀釋所抵消。

Next, let me talk about our 2024 CapEx.

接下來，讓我談談我們的 2024 年資本支出。

Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years.

每年，我們的資本支出都用於預測未來幾年的成長。

And our CapEx and capacity planning is always based on the long term market demand profile.

我們的資本支出和產能規劃始終基於長期市場需求狀況。

As the strong structural AI related demand continues, we continue to invest to support our customers' growth.

隨著人工智慧相關的強勁結構性需求持續存在，我們將繼續投資以支持客戶的成長。

We now expect our 2024 CapEx to be slightly higher than $30 billion.

我們現在預計 2024 年的資本支出將略高於 300 億美元。

Between 70% and 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies.

70% 至 80% 的資本預算將分配給先進製程技術。

About 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask-making, and others.

大約10%到20%將用於專業技術，大約10%將用於先進封裝、測試、掩模製造等。

At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years.

在台積電，較高的資本支出水準始終與未來幾年較高的成長機會相關。

And as long as our growth outlook remains strong, we will continue to invest.

只要我們的成長前景依然強勁，我們就會繼續投資。

Now let me turn the microphone over to CC.

現在讓我把麥克風轉到 CC。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Wendell.

溫德爾.

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook.

首先，讓我從我們的近期需求前景開始。

We concluded our third quarter with revenue of USD23.5 billion, above our guidance in US dollar terms.

我們第三季的營收達到 235 億美元，高於我們以美元計算的指引值。

Our business in the third quarter was supported by strong smartphone and AI related demand for our industry leading 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technologies.

我們第三季的業務得到了對業界領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁智慧型手機和人工智慧相關需求的支持。

Moving into first quarter, we expect our business to continue to be supported by strong demand for our leading edge process technologies.

進入第一季度，我們預計我們的業務將繼續受到對我們領先製程技術的強勁需求的支持。

We continue to observe extremely robust AI related demand from our customers throughout the second half of 2024, leading to increasing overall capacity utilization rate for our leading 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer process technologies.

我們在 2024 年下半年繼續觀察到客戶對人工智慧相關的極其強勁的需求，從而提高了我們領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米製程技術的整體產能利用率。

At TSMC, we define server AI processors as GPUs, AI accelerators, and CPUs performing training and influence functions, and do not include networking, edge, or on-device AI.

在台積電，我們將伺服器 AI 處理器定義為執行訓練和影響功能的 GPU、AI 加速器和 CPU，不包括網路、邊緣或裝置上的 AI。

We now forecast the revenue contribution from server AI processors to more than triple this year, and account for mid-teens percentage of our total revenue in 2024.

我們現在預測今年伺服器 AI 處理器的收入貢獻將增加兩倍以上，並在 2024 年占我們總收入的中位數百分比。

Supported by our technology leadership and broad customer base, we are well-positioned to capture the industry’s growth opportunities.

在我們的技術領先地位和廣泛的客戶群的支持下，我們有能力抓住行業的成長機會。

We now forecast our full year revenue to increase by close to 30% in US dollar terms.

我們現在預測全年營收以美元計算將成長近 30%。

Next, let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update.

接下來，讓我來談談我們的全球製造足跡更新。

TSMC’s mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global logic IC industry for years to come.

台積電的使命是在未來幾年成為全球邏輯 IC 產業值得信賴的技術和產能提供者。

All of our overseas decisions are based on our customers’ needs, as they value some geographic flexibility, and a necessary level of government support.

我們所有的海外決策都是基於客戶的需求，因為他們重視一定的地域彈性和必要的政府支援。

This is also to maximize the value of our shareholders.

這也是為了我們股東的價值最大化。

In Arizona, we have received a strong commitment and support from our US customers and the US Federal, state, and city governments, and have made significant progress in the past several months.

在亞利桑那州，我們得到了美國客戶以及美國聯邦、州和市政府的堅定承諾和支持，並在過去幾個月中取得了重大進展。

Our plan to build three fabs will help create greater economies of scale as each of our fab in Arizona will have a clean room area that is approximately double the size of a typical logical fab.

我們建造三座晶圓廠的計畫將有助於創造更大的規模經濟，因為我們在亞利桑那州的每座晶圓廠都將擁有大約是典型邏輯晶圓廠大小兩倍的無塵室面積。

Our first fab entered engineering wafer production in April with 4 nanometer process technology, and the result is a highly satisfactory, with a very good yield.

我們的第一家晶圓廠於 4 月進入工程晶圓生產，採用 4 奈米製程技術，結果非常令人滿意，良率非常好。

This is an important operational milestone for TSMC and our customers, demonstrating TSMC’s strong manufacturing capability and execution.

這對於台積電和我們的客戶來說是一個重要的營運里程碑，展現了台積電強大的製造能力和執行力。

We now expect volume production of our first fab to start in the beginning of 2025 and are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Arizona, as from our fabs in Taiwan.

現在，我們預計第一家工廠將於 2025 年初開始量產，並有信心讓我們位於亞利桑那州的工廠提供與台灣工廠相同水準的製造品質和可靠性。

Our second and third fabs will utilize more advanced technologies based on our customers needs.

我們的第二和第三工廠將根據客戶的需求採用更先進的技術。

The second fab is scheduled to begin volume production in 2028 and our third fab will begin production by the end of the decade.

第二座晶圓廠計劃於 2028 年開始量產，我們的第三座晶圓廠將於本世紀末開始量產。

Thus, TSMC will continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers’ success, while remaining a key partner and enabler of the US semiconductor industry.

因此，台積電將繼續在幫助客戶成功的過程中發揮關鍵且不可或缺的作用，同時仍然是美國半導體產業的重要合作夥伴和推動者。

Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan central, prefectural, and local governments, our progress is also very successful.

接下來在日本，由於日本中央、縣、地方政府的大力支持，我們的進展也非常成功。

Our first specialty technology fab has completed all process qualification.

我們的第一家專業技術工廠已完成所有工藝鑑定。

Volume production was started this quarter and we are confident to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability from our fab in Kumamoto, as from our fabs in Taiwan.

本季已開始大量生產，我們有信心在熊本工廠提供與台灣工廠相同水準的製造品質和可靠性。

The land preparation for our second specialty technology fab in Kumamoto has already begun and construction will begin in first quarter next year.

我們位於熊本的第二個專業技術工廠的土地準備工作已經開始，並將於明年第一季開始建造。

This second fab will support our strategic customers for consumer, automotive, industrial, and HPC related applications; and volume production is targeted by the end of 2027.

第二座工廠將為我們的消費、汽車、工業和 HPC 相關應用的策略客戶提供支援；目標是在 2027 年底實現量產。

In Europe, we have received strong commitment from European Commission and the German Federal, state, and city governments.

在歐洲，我們得到了歐盟委員會以及德國聯邦、州和市政府的堅定承諾。

Together with our JV partners, we held a groundbreaking ceremony in August for our specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany.

八月，我們與合資夥伴一起在德國德勒斯登舉行了專業技術工廠的奠基儀式。

This fab will focus on automotive and industrial applications, utilizing 12/16 and 22/28 nanometer process technologies.

該工廠將專注於汽車和工業應用，採用 12/16 和 22/28 奈米製程技術。

Volume production is scheduled to begin by the end of 2027.

計劃於 2027 年底開始大量生產。

Under today's fragmented globalization environment, oversea fab costs are higher for everyone, including TSMC and all other semiconductor manufacturers.

在當今碎片化的全球化環境下，海外晶圓廠成本對所有人來說都更高，包括台積電和所有其他半導體製造商。

Having said that, we will leverage our fundamental competitive advantage of manufacturing technology leadership and large scale manufacturing base.

儘管如此，我們仍將發揮製造技術領先和規模化製造基地的根本競爭優勢。

Thus, TSMC will be the most efficient and cost effective manufacturer in the region that we operate, while continue to provide our customers with the most advanced technology at scale to support their growth.

因此，台積電將成為我們經營所在地區最高效、最具成本效益的製造商，同時繼續大規模為我們的客戶提供最先進的技術，以支持他們的發展。

This concludes our key measures and thank you for your attention

我們的主要措施到此結束，感謝您的關注

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

CC.

抄送。

This does conclude our prepared statements.

我們準備好的聲明到此結束。

(Conference Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session.

（會議須知） 現在我們開始問答環節。

Operator, can we proceed with the first participant on the line, please?

接線員，我們可以繼續線路上的第一個參與者嗎？

Gokul Hariharan, JP Morgan.

戈庫爾·哈里哈蘭，摩根大通。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Good afternoon CC, Wendell, and Jeff.

下午好，CC、溫德爾和傑夫。

My first question is on the AI investments and the growth that you see.

我的第一個問題是關於人工智慧投資和你所看到的成長。

Recently, obviously, there's been a lot of questions about ROI of Gen AI investments, whether this could end up being a bubble.

最近，顯然，人們對新一代人工智慧投資的投資回報率存在著許多疑問，這是否最終會成為泡沫。

How does the TSMC view this trend as you're making your capacity plans given you are enabling pretty much the processing capacity for pretty much everybody?

鑑於您正在為幾乎每個人提供幾乎所有的處理能力，那麼在您制定產能計劃時，台積電如何看待這一趨勢？

And what gives you the confidence that this is going to be a more longer run growth cycle.

是什麼讓您相信這將是一個更長的成長週期。

And related to this, could CC also talk a little bit about what do you think about the duration of this current semiconductor upcycle?

與此相關，CC 能否也談談您對目前半導體升級週期持續時間的看法？

Do you think it will continue into the next couple of years or are we getting closer to the peak of this cycle?

您認為這種情況會持續到未來幾年還是我們正在接近這個週期的頂峰？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Please allow me to summarize your first question.

請容許我總結一下你的第一個問題。

So Gokul's first question has two parts.

因此，戈庫爾的第一個問題有兩個部分。

The first part, I believe, is more focused on the AI related demand, the ROI and sustainability of this.

我認為，第一部分更關注與人工智慧相關的需求、投資報酬率和永續性。

He notes recently, there's been a lot of questions about the return or ROI from generative AI investments, and therefore, how do we view this trend?

他最近指出，人們對生成式人工智慧投資的回報或投資回報率有許多疑問，因此，我們如何看待這一趨勢？

Is there a worry that this demand sustainability or maybe a bubble?

是否有人擔心這需要可持續性或可能存在泡沫？

And very importantly, certainly what gives us the confidence that this could be a more long run sustainable demand cycle for AI?

非常重要的是，是什麼讓我們有信心這可能是一個更長期可持續的人工智慧需求週期？

Okay.

好的。

Gokul, let me answer your question.

戈庫爾，讓我回答你的問題。

Simply, whether this AI demand is real or not.

簡單來說，就是這個人工智慧需求是否真實。

Okay.

好的。

And my judgment is real.

而我的判斷是真實的。

We have talked to our customers all the time, including our hyperscaler customers who are building their own chips.

我們一直在與客戶交談，包括正在建立自己晶片的超大規模客戶。

And almost every AI innovators is working with TSMC.

幾乎每個人工智慧創新者都在與台積電合作。

And so we probably get the deepest and widest look than anyone in this industry.

因此，我們可能比這個行業中的任何人都有最深入、最廣泛的了解。

And why I say it's real?

為什麼我說它是真的？

Because we have our real experience.

因為我們有真實的經驗。

We have used the AI and machine learning in our fab, in R&D operations.

我們在晶圓廠的研發運作中使用了人工智慧和機器學習。

By using AI, we are able to create more value by driving greater productivity, efficiency, speed, qualities.

透過使用人工智慧，我們能夠透過提高生產力、效率、速度和品質來創造更多價值。

And think about it, let me use 1% productivity gain.

想一想，讓我使用 1% 的生產力增益。

That was almost equal to about $1 billion to TSMC.

這幾乎相當於台積電的約 10 億美元。

And this is a tangible ROI benefit.

這是切實的投資報酬率收益。

And I believe we are -- we cannot be the only one company that have benefited from this AI application.

我相信我們——我們不可能是唯一一家從這個人工智慧應用程式中受益的公司。

So I believe a lot of companies right now are using AI and for their own improving productivity, efficiency, and everything.

所以我相信現在很多公司都在使用人工智慧來提高生產力、效率等等。

So I think it's real.

所以我認為這是真的。

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yeah, that's clear.

是的，那很清楚。

Maybe.

或許。

Yeah.

是的。

Could you also talk a little bit about how this fits into your view of the current semiconductor cycle also, CC?

CC，您能否也談談這如何符合您對目前半導體週期的看法？

So Gokul, the second part is so we have a -- we believe the AI demand is real but how do we view the overall semiconductor demand cycle?

Gokul，第二部分是，我們相信人工智慧需求是真實的，但我們如何看待整個半導體需求週期？

Do we -- I think Gokul you are saying, do we think it's reached peak - peak out already?

我們——我想 Gokul 你是說，我們認為它已經達到頂峰了嗎？

Okay.

好的。

I forgot to answer this one.

我忘了回答這個問題了。

The demand is real, and I believe it's just the beginning of this demand.

需求是真實存在的，我相信這只是這個需求的開始。

All right.

好的。

So one of my key customers say, the demand right now is insane.

我的一位主要客戶說，現在的需求太瘋狂了。

You know, that's -- it's just the beginning.

你知道，這只是一個開始。

It's from scientific to be engineering, and will continued for many years.

它從科學到工程，並將持續多年。

And then the overall semiconductor demand, I think.

我認為然後是整體半導體需求。

Overall semiconductor demand, except that the AI, I think everything is stabilized and start to improve.

整體半導體需求，除了人工智慧之外，我認為一切都穩定並開始改善。

Okay, Gokul?

好吧，戈庫爾？

Understood.

明白了。

That's clear.

很清楚。

Thanks CC.

謝謝CC。

My second question is more to do with CapEx.

我的第二個問題更與資本支出有關。

I think usually if you look at the past cycles of strong demand uptake, TSMC’s CapEx also starts to move up quite a bit.

我認為，通常如果你看看過去強勁需求成長的週期，台積電的資本支出也會開始大幅上升。

This time around 2023 and 2024, your CapEx has been reasonably stable.

這次在 2023 年和 2024 年左右，您的資本支出相當穩定。

It's still a large number, but not really growing a lot in the $30 billion, $31 billion range.

這仍然是一個很大的數字，但在 300 億美元到 310 億美元的範圍內並沒有真正增長很多。

How should we think about look forward when we look forward into the next couple of years?

當我們展望未來幾年時，我們該如何思考未來？

What are you doing -- what are you planning for CapEx growth?

您在做什麼－您對資本支出成長有何計畫？

Is there any deceleration that TSMC has about the pace of growth that the CapEx is still a little bit lower?

台積電的成長速度是否放緩，導致資本支出仍略低？

Or should we expect that the CapEx also should start accelerating, given you’re growing at 30% this year and looks like you’re preparing for pretty strong growth the next couple of years as well?

或者我們應該預期資本支出也應該開始加速，因為您今年的成長率為 30%，並且看起來您也在為未來幾年的強勁成長做好準備？

Okay.

好的。

So Gokul’s second question is related to CapEx and looking out the next few years.

因此，Gokul 的第二個問題與資本支出以及未來幾年的展望有關。

So he notes that in past cycles, when demand is very strong, our CapEx starts to move up.

因此他指出，在過去的周期中，當需求非常強勁時，我們的資本支出就會開始上升。

But however, this time, even with what CC described as very real and the beginning of a strong AI demand.

然而，這一次，即使CC所描述的情況非常真實，並且是強烈的人工智慧需求的開始。

These last two years, we’ve kept our CapEx.

過去兩年，我們維持了資本支出。

It’s not really been growing much.

它並沒有真正增長太多。

So his question is that because we have any concerns or reservations around the demand, sustainability?

所以他的問題是，我們對需求、永續性有什麼擔憂或保留嗎？

Or what will the CapEx start to look like the next several years?

或者未來幾年的資本支出會是什麼樣子？

Will we have to -- we'll begin to step it back up.

我們是否必須－我們將開始加大力度。

Is that roughly what you're asking, Gokul?

戈庫爾，這就是你問的大致內容嗎？

Yeah, that's right.

是的，沒錯。

Thanks,

謝謝，

Okay, Gokul, we do not have a number for 2025 CapEx today to share with you.

好吧，Gokul，我們今天沒有 2025 年資本支出的數字可以與您分享。

However, we always use a discipline and thorough system to determine the appropriate capacity to build.

然而，我們始終使用紀律和徹底的系統來確定適當的能力建構。

And we always review our CapEx plans on an ongoing basis.

我們始終持續審查我們的資本支出計劃。

For TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always going to be related with higher growth opportunities in the coming years.

對於台積電來說，更高水準的資本支出總是與未來幾年更高的成長機會有關。

And as long as our growth outlook remains strong, we will continue to invest.

只要我們的成長前景依然強勁，我們就會繼續投資。

Now as CC said, next year looks to be a healthy year.

正如 CC 所說，明年看起來將是健康的一年。

So it is very likely that our CapEx next year will be higher than this year.

因此，我們明年的資本支出很可能會高於今年。

And we will provide you more updates in January conference.

我們將在一月份的會議上為您提供更多更新。

Okay.

好的。

That's very clear.

這非常清楚。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'll go back to the queue.

我會回到隊列中。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

接線員，我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎？

Sunny Lin, UBS.

林陽光，瑞銀。

Thank you very much for taking my question.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Good afternoon, very strong execution and margin.

下午好，執行力和利潤非常強勁。

And so my first question is to follow up on the gross margin outlook.

所以我的第一個問題是跟進毛利率前景。

How should we think about into 2025.

我們應該如何思考2025年。

Last quarter management quantified overseas expansion to about 2% to 3% margin.

上季管理層將海外擴張量化為約 2% 至 3% 的利潤率。

But besides that, could you help us understand some of the other puts and takes?

但除此之外，您能幫助我們理解其他一些 put 和 take 嗎？

How should we think about the depreciation growth into 2025?

我們該如何看待2025年的折舊成長？

Okay.

好的。

Sunny, thank you for your question.

陽光，謝謝你的提問。

So, Sunny's question first is on the gross margin outlook into 2025.

因此，Sunny 首先的問題是 2025 年的毛利率前景。

She notes last time, Wendell had already shared that overseas fab would dilute our gross margin probably by 2% to 3%.

她指出，上次Wendell已經表示海外晶圓廠可能會稀釋我們的毛利率2%至3%。

She wants to know besides that, what other factors should we consider?

她想知道除此之外，我們還該考慮哪些因素？

And also in terms of depreciation growth.

就折舊增長而言也是如此。

So Sunny, again, it's too early to talk about 2025 in detail.

Sunny 再次強調，現在詳細討論 2025 年還為時過早。

But there are a few things I can share with you, the puts and takes for 2025.

但我可以與您分享一些事情，即 2025 年的展望。

Indeed, we expect the dilution from N3 ramp to gradually reduce next year.

事實上，我們預計明年 N3 產能的稀釋將逐漸減少。

We continue to sell our value.

我們繼續出售我們的價值。

So these things will help.

所以這些事情會有幫助。

Plus next year will be a healthy growth year, so utilization is also a positive.

再加上明年將是健康成長的一年，因此利用率也是一個正面因素。

On the other hand, as we said, there will be 2%-to-3%-point dilution from the overseas fabs when we begin to ramp them.

另一方面，正如我們所說，當我們開始擴建海外晶圓廠時，海外晶圓廠的稀釋度將達到 2% 到 3%。

At the same time, we are also converting some of our N5 capacity to N3 to meet the strong demand for N3.

同時，我們也正在將部分N5產能轉換為N3，以滿足對N3的強勁需求。

And also, don't forget there -- we're ramping the N2 in 2026.

另外，不要忘記——我們將在 2026 年對 N2 進行升級。

There will also be some preparation cost for ramping N2.

增加 N2 也會產生一些準備成本。

And every -- as we migrate every leading nodes, more and more advanced, this preparation cost will become bigger and bigger.

隨著我們遷移每個領先節點，越來越先進，這種準備成本將變得越來越大。

Now, you also know that the electricity cost has also risen very recently.

現在，您也知道最近電費也漲了。

And second time in the year, 14% higher for TSMC in October.

台積電 10 月股價上漲 14%，這是年內第二次上漲。

This is after 15% increase in 2022, 17% increase in 2023, and 25% increase in 2024.

這是繼2022年成長15%、2023年成長17%和2024年成長25%之後的結果。

Basically the price has doubled in the last few years.

過去幾年價格基本上翻了一番。

So next year, we think that electricity price for us in Taiwan will be the highest in all the regions that we operate.

因此，明年，我們認為台灣的電價將是我們經營的所有地區中最高的。

And the higher electricity price, plus other inflationary cost, is expected to impact our gross margin by at least 1%.

電價上漲，加上其他通膨成本，預計將影響我們的毛利率至少 1%。

And finally, of course, we do not have any control or cannot forecast foreign exchange rate movement. 1% of foreign exchange rate movement dollar NT will have an impact of 40 basis points to our gross margin.

最後，當然，我們沒有任何控制權或無法預測外匯匯率變動。匯率每變動1%新台幣就會對我們的毛利率產生40個基點的影響。

Thank you. so Sunny, does that sort of give you a better understanding of the puts and takes for next year?

謝謝。陽光明媚，這是否能讓您更了解明年的走勢？

Yeah, that's very helpful.

是的，這非常有幫助。

Thank you very much Wendell.

非常感謝溫德爾。

So quick follow up if any of you on depreciation increase into 2025.

如果你們有人知道 2025 年折舊會增加，請快速跟進。

Should we expect similar magnitude as a this year which grow about 25%?

我們是否應該期待與今年類似的增幅，即 25% 左右？

And also a quick follow up on the 2% to 3% growth margin dilution for overseas.

並對海外 2% 至 3% 的成長利潤稀釋進行快速跟進。

If I calculate correctly, that would imply your overseas fabs in the US And Japan could be running at close to 0 or very low growth margin to start with.

如果我計算正確，這意味著你們在美國和日本的海外晶圓廠一開始的成長率可能接近0或非常低。

Would that be a conservative assumption that you are assuming at this point?

您目前的假設是保守的假設嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Well, that's two follow up.

嗯，這是兩個後續。

So I might take that as the second question, but the first one is again, Sunny had asked about depreciation next year.

所以我可能會將此作為第二個問題，但第一個問題又是，Sunny 詢問了明年的折舊問題。

Yeah, Sunny, that does give you more depreciation guidance in the January conference.

是的，Sunny，這確實在一月份的會議上為您提供了更多折舊指導。

Okay.

好的。

And then the second question really is about our overseas fabs.

第二個問題確實是關於我們的海外晶圓廠。

As we ramp up Arizona and Japan, Sunny, I believe your question is, with that ramp and dilution of 2% to 3%.

當我們增加亞利桑那州和日本的業務時，Sunny，我相信你的問題是，增加和稀釋為 2% 到 3%。

Does that imply the overseas fabs profitability is more closer to break even or something like that?

這是否意味著海外晶圓廠的獲利能力更接近收支平衡或類似情況？

Correct, Sunny?

對嗎，桑尼？

Right.

正確的。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Yeah.

是的。

Sunny, the overseas fabs have basically a lower profitability than the fabs in Taiwan, mainly because of a smaller scale and of next year will be initial ramp and higher cost.

陽光明媚，海外晶圓廠的獲利能力基本上低於台灣晶圓廠，主要是規模較小，明年將是初期產能提升和成本較高的原因。

So it will be -- it will have a lower profitability, but it will gradually improve over the years.

所以它的獲利能力會較低，但多年來會逐漸改善。

Now, don't forget in Arizona and in Kumamoto, we are ramping more than one fabs.

現在，不要忘記在亞利桑那州和熊本，我們正在建造不只一座晶圓廠。

So when fab one begin to improve its profitability, the second phase comes in.

因此，當第一代晶圓廠開始提高其獲利能力時，第二階段就開始了。

And Arizona, when fab two improves, the third fab comes in.

而亞利桑那州，當二號晶圓廠改良後，第三號晶圓廠就會加入。

A similar situation in Kumamoto.

熊本也有類似的情況。

And that's the reason why we're saying that in the next three or five years, we expect 2 to 3 percentage point dilution every year.

這就是為什麼我們說在未來三到五年內，我們預計每年會稀釋 2 到 3 個百分點。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay, thank you Sunny.

好的，謝謝你，陽光。

Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?

接線員，我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎？

Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

陳查理，摩根士丹利。

Thanks Jeff and CC, Wendell, good afternoon.

謝謝 Jeff 和 CC，Wendell，下午好。

First of all, also congrats for your very, very strong result and the guidance.

首先，也恭喜您非常非常出色的結果和指導。

So my first question is really about your future bargain power to your customers and vendors.

所以我的第一個問題實際上是關於您未來對客戶和供應商的討價還價能力。

And what would that mean to your long term gross margin targets?

這對您的長期毛利率目標意味著什麼？

Because right now, even without the price adjustment next year, your gross margin is already blow up, right?

因為現在，即使明年不調價，你們的毛利率也已經爆了，對吧？

It's already 57% to 58%, higher than most of your customers.

它已經是 57% 到 58%，高於大多數客戶。

So, with that, do you think you will be a little bit too aggressive to further hike price to your customers?

那麼，您認為您是否會過度積極地進一步提高對客戶的價格？

And I'm also wondering for those kinds of mature nodes, what's your pricing strategy here?

我還想知道對於這些成熟的節點，你們的定價策略是什麼？

So I want to ask, are the implication to, number one, your long term gross margin level?

所以我想問，第一，這對你們的長期毛利率水準有影響嗎？

And secondly, are you going to handle the potential antitrust risk, given your monopoly -- near monopoly and also prepared to do some price adjustments?

其次，考慮到你的壟斷地位——接近壟斷地位，並且還準備進行一些價格調整，你是否會應對潛在的反壟斷風險？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

So, I think Charlie's question is sort of, we always say that we value selling and its continuous and ongoing thing.

所以，我認為查理的問題是，我們總是說我們重視銷售及其持續不斷的事情。

So he wants to know what does this status look like with both customers and vendors?

所以他想知道客戶和供應商的這種狀態是什麼樣的？

And then what is the implication to our long term gross margin target?

那麼這對我們的長期毛利率目標有何影響？

And are we concerned about monopoly or things like that?

我們是否擔心壟斷或類似的事情？

Let me start that.

讓我開始吧。

I think is the first part, and then the mature part, I'll summarize later.

我認為是第一部分，然後是成熟的部分，我稍後會總結。

Okay, Charlie, this is CC.

好的，查理，我是 CC。

Let me answer your question.

讓我回答你的問題。

You know, selling our value actually is a continuous and ongoing process for TSMC.

要知道，對於台積電來說，出售我們的價值其實是一個持續不斷的過程。

We view all our customers as partners, and the progress of this effort on sharing our value is so far so good.

我們將所有客戶視為合作夥伴，迄今為止，在分享我們價值方面的努力進展順利。

Also, you are talking about, we have more bargaining power with our equipment suppliers.

另外，你說的是，我們與設備供應商有更多的議價能力。

Again, we view them as our partners.

我們再次將他們視為我們的合作夥伴。

So I don't use the bargaining power.

所以我不使用討價還價的能力。

We always work with them and to move to the next step.

我們始終與他們合作並邁向下一步。

And so, both TSMC and suppliers and customers are all working together.

因此，台積電與供應商和客戶都在共同努力。

And with the purpose of that, we can have a TSMC customer to be successful in their market.

出於這個目的，我們可以讓台積電客戶在他們的市場上取得成功。

Okay?

好的？

That's my goal.

這就是我的目標。

If our customers are doing well, we can be good also.

如果我們的客戶做得好，我們也可以做得好。

Okay?

好的？

And you mentioned one thing that I have a little bit concern.

你提到了我有點擔心的一件事。

You say that TSMC is a gross margin, now is higher than my customer, it's not true.

你說台積電是毛利率，現在比我客戶還高，這不是真的。

You know, look at one of the biggest AI suppliers.

你知道，看看最大的人工智慧供應商之一。

They have a gross margin that I probably never be able to reach in my life.

他們的毛利率是我一生中可能永遠無法達到的。

But anyway, we are very happy to see them be successful, and we are in a different kind of business.

但無論如何，我們很高興看到他們取得成功，而且我們從事的是不同類型的業務。

We are capital intensive business.

我們是資本密集型企業。

So we need a very high gross margin to survive and to have a sustainable and healthy growth.

所以我們需要非常高的毛利率才能生存並持續健康的成長。

That's why we set up our pricing strategy.

這就是我們制定定價策略的原因。

Yeah.

是的。

And then a quick one, I think part of Charlie's question, the second part.

然後是一個快速的問題，我想查理問題的一部分，第二部分。

Charlie, if I heard you right is sort of the outlook for mature note in terms of pricing.

查理，如果我沒聽錯的話，這就是成熟票據在定價方面的前景。

I think Charlie, you're talking about the way that the anti-trust concern or something like that.

我認為查理，你正在談論反壟斷問題或類似的問題。

Did I hear you right?

我沒聽錯吧？

Yeah, I'm a little bit concerned.

是的，我有點擔心。

Same as other investors as well.

與其他投資者也一樣。

The anti trust are meaning that TSMC has a very high market share and with some of unnecessary competitions methodology, let me assure you that the last time we proposed a new version of the Foundry 2.0, which including wafer manufacturing and packaging, and testing, mask making, and all others.

反壟斷意味著台積電擁有非常高的市場份額，並且帶有一些不必要的競爭方法論，我向大家保證，上次我們提出了新版本的Foundry 2.0，其中包括晶圓製造和封裝，以及測試、掩模製作，以及所有其他。

All these kind of things become more growing importance like a packaging, testing, mask making.

所有這些事情都變得越來越重要，例如包裝、測試、掩模製作。

Right now, probably is a little bit higher than 10% of TSMC's total revenue.

目前，大概比台積電總營收的10%高一點。

That's one.

這是一個。

And all my competitors, they are IDMs in particular, they also have their packaging, testing, and mask making.

還有我所有的競爭對手，特別是IDM，他們也有封裝、測試、光罩製作。

And so I think Foundry 2.0 is a better reflect TSMC’s addressable market, and our share is probably around 30%.

所以我認為 Foundry 2.0 更好地反映了台積電的潛在市場，我們的份額可能在 30% 左右。

So, not dominant yet.

所以，還沒有佔據主導地位。

We are big.

我們很大。

Yes, because we performed very well.

是的，因為我們表現得很好。

But no, it's not a kind of antitrust concerning.

但不，這不是反壟斷問題。

It's not in our picture actually.

實際上它並不在我們的照片中。

Charlie, did I answer your question?

查理，我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yeah, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So, I guess you won't stop your margin improvement until 75%.

所以，我猜你的利潤率提高到 75% 之前不會停止。

But anyway, I'll leave that long term margin.

但無論如何，我都會留下長期利潤。

I'll get or guidance to the next caller or your next January guidance.

我會為下一個來電者提供指導或您明年一月的指導。

But I do have a second question.

但我還有第二個問題。

Is that okay, Jeff, I can ask a second one.

可以嗎，傑夫，我可以再問一個。

Quickly.

迅速地。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah, the second one is about your, IDM outsourcing opportunity, right?

是的，第二個是關於您的 IDM 外包機會，對吧？

Also part of your Foundry 2.0 because one of the major IDM opportunities, Intel, has recently announced they want to spin off their Foundry segments, right?

也是 Foundry 2.0 的一部分，因為主要的 IDM 機會之一英特爾最近宣布他們希望剝離 Foundry 部門，對嗎？

So, number one, TSMC, do you really expect more outsourcing from Intel, given this change?

那麼，第一，台積電，鑑於這一變化，您真的期望英特爾提供更多外包嗎？

And even, will TSMC considered to acquire part of Intel fabs in the long term?

甚至，台積電是否會考慮長期收購部分英特爾晶圓廠？

So I think that that's that.

所以我認為就是這樣。

And also quickly comment on news reporting about Samsung's IDM outsourcing opportunity.

並且也快速評論了有關三星IDM外包機會的新聞報導。

So that's my second part of the question.

這是我問題的第二部分。

Okay.

好的。

So second part is on IDM outsourcing.

第二部分是 IDM 外包。

He wants to know with the - I guess US IDM and Foundry 2.0, do we expect more outsourcing from this US IDM and, you know, how do we plan for the capacity?

他想知道——我猜是美國 IDM 和 Foundry 2.0，我們是否期望從美國 IDM 獲得更多外包，以及我們如何規劃產能？

Would we consider, I think to acquire part of this IDM’s fabs or manufacturing?

我認為我們會考慮收購該 IDM 的部分晶圓廠或製造業嗎？

And then how do we see outsourcing from Samsung?

那我們該如何看待三星的外包呢？

Well, that's a lot of questions.

嗯，這是很多問題。

Let me answer one of the easiest one.

讓我回答最簡單的一個。

Are we interested to acquire one of IDM’s fabs?

我們是否有興趣收購 IDM 的一家晶圓廠？

The answer is no.

答案是否定的。

Okay, no, not at all.

好吧，不，一點也不。

But now let's talk about the business part.

但現在我們來談談業務部分。

It’s always customers’ decision for their outsourcing strategy.

外包策略始終由客戶決定。

But I look at the business of the IDM, one of the IDMs in California, which has been a very good customer to TSMC.

但我看一下IDM的業務，加州的IDM之一，它一直是台積電的非常好的客戶。

And we continue to receive a sizable business from them to be frank with you.

坦白說，我們繼續從他們那裡獲得大量業務。

So your question is whether that we continue to increase, that is too specific.

所以你的問題是我們是否繼續增加，這太具體了。

So let's wait for the next few quarters to answer your question.

因此，讓我們等待接下來的幾個季度來回答您的問題。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Thank you Charlie, operator.

謝謝接線生查理。

Can we move on to the next person caller, please?

我們可以轉到下一個來電嗎？

Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

盧小龍，高盛。

Okay, thank you for taking my question.

好的，謝謝你回答我的問題。

My question is going back to the longer term growth outlook.

我的問題是回到長期成長前景。

I think TSMC has been guiding for 15% to 20% revenue CAGR from '21 to '26.

我認為台積電一直指導 21 年至 26 年收入複合年增長率為 15% 至 20%。

On the back of the insane AI demand, you know, do we have an update outlook for the revenue guidance beyond 2026?

在瘋狂的人工智慧需求的背景下，我們對 2026 年後的收入指引有更新的展望嗎？

In addition, when TSMC guided in 2021, TSMC achieve 25% growth almost every year except for 2023.

此外，在台積電2021年指引時，除了2023年之外，台積電幾乎每年都達到25%的成長。

So what kind of like revenue growth outlook or the growth pattern in the next five years?

那麼未來五年的營收成長前景或是成長模式是什麼樣的呢？

Do we expect to be a more stable growth every year or do we expect to be a stronger growth for most of the year and one year of weakness?

我們是否期望每年都實現更穩定的成長，還是期望在一年的大部分時間裡成長強勁，然後一年疲軟？

Okay.

好的。

So thank you, Bruce.

所以謝謝你，布魯斯。

So Bruce's first question is about our long term growth outlook.

因此，布魯斯的第一個問題是關於我們的長期成長前景。

He notes, yes, we did provide a long term revenue growth CAGR of between 15% to 20% CAGR in us dollar terms from '21 to '26.

他指出，是的，我們確實提供了從 21 年到 26 年以美元計算的長期收入複合年增長率為 15% 到 20% 的複合年增長率。

So he wants to know what is the updated revenue guidance, the outlook beyond 2026.

所以他想知道更新後的收入指引是什麼，2026 年以後的前景如何。

And he also notes that when we provided this guidance in 2022, we basically were able to grow greater than 25% every year except for 2023.

他還指出，當我們在 2022 年提供這項指導時，除了 2023 年之外，我們基本上每年都能實現 25% 以上的成長。

So he wants to know the next five years.

所以他想知道接下來的五年。

Will the growth be a similar level every year or will it be like a strong years followed by a down year sort of the pattern of the growth?

每年的成長水準會相似，還是會像強勁年份隨後下降年份那樣的成長模式？

Okay, Bruce, that’s big questions you ask us whether the next five years will be as good as the past five years from '21 to '24 right now.

好吧，布魯斯，你問我們的這個大問題是，未來五年是否會像過去五年（從 21 世紀到 24 世紀）一樣好。

Except the 2023, we have a very good growth.

除了2023年之外，我們都有非常好的成長。

As you said, it's always 20% to 30%.

正如你所說，它總是 20% 到 30%。

The next five years, it will be very healthy also to TSMC.

未來五年，對於台積電來說也將非常健康。

But I don't have a long term CAGR number to update you, but they will be very healthy also.

但我沒有長期的複合年增長率數據可以更新，但它們也將非常健康。

That's so far I can assure you.

到目前為止我可以向你保證。

So, a quick follow up, does that insane AI demand start to help you to grow slightly faster than before?

那麼，快速跟進一下，這種瘋狂的人工智慧需求是否開始幫助您比以前稍微更快地成長？

So, Bruce wants to know with the very robust AI related demand.

因此，Bruce 想了解與人工智慧相關的非常強勁的需求。

Can we grow faster than before?

我們能比以前成長得更快嗎？

I hope so.

我希望如此。

But as I said today, we don't, we don't have a long term CAGR number to share with you.

但正如我今天所說，我們沒有，我們沒有長期複合年增長率數字可以與您分享。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Let me switch gear to 2 nanometers and A16.

讓我切換到 2 奈米和 A16。

So I think that you know the HPC demand and you know, for advanced node is very strong, we do see a more customer engagement for 2 nanometers.

因此，我認為您了解 HPC 需求，而且先進節點的需求非常強勁，我們確實看到更多客戶參與 2 奈米技術。

But at the same time, we also see more chiplet design in 2 nanometers, which might effectively lower the 2 nanometer wafer area requirement.

但同時，我們也看到更多2奈米的chiplet設計，這可能會有效降低2奈米晶圓面積的要求。

So how should we think about your 2 nanometer capacity build versus the 3, 5 and 7 in the past?

那麼，與過去的 3、5 和 7 奈米相比，我們應該如何看待你們的 2 奈米產能建設呢？

And how do we see the A16 migration beyond 2 nanometer?

我們如何看待 A16 遷移到 2 奈米以上？

Okay.

好的。

So Bruce's second question, as he said is on 2 nanometer and A16.

Bruce 的第二個問題，正如他所說，是關於 2 奈米和 A16 的。

He notes certainly with HPC and AI related more and more engagement at 2 nanometer.

他指出，與 HPC 和 AI 相關的 2 奈米技術的參與度越來越高。

But he also notes or his observation with chiplets that could reduce the demand for 2 nanometer.

但他也指出，他對小晶片的觀察可以減少對 2 奈米的需求。

So he really wants to know sort of what is the capacity build or capacity outlook for 2 nanometer that we are looking at.

所以他真的想知道我們正在關注的 2 奈米技術的產能建設或產能前景如何。

And also how do we see the migration from 2 nanometer to A16?

我們如何看待從 2 奈米到 A16 的遷移？

Is that correct Bruce?

布魯斯的說法正確嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer this question.

讓我來回答這個問題。

Yes.

是的。

The chiplets have become kind of - our HPC, especially our HPC customers’ strategy.

小晶片已經成為我們的 HPC，尤其是我們的 HPC 客戶的策略。

Is it going to reduce the capacity for 2 nanometer because they become chiplets?

2奈米會因為變成chiplet而減少容量嗎？

The answer is no.

答案是否定的。

Actually we have many, many customers interested in the 2 nanometer.

實際上我們有很多很多客戶對 2 奈米感興趣。

And today with their activities with TSMC, we actually see more demand than we ever dream about as compared with N3.

今天，透過他們與台積電的合作，與 N3 相比，我們實際上看到了比我們想像的更多的需求。

So we have to prepare more capacity in N2 than in N3.

所以我們必須在N2中準備比N3更多的容量。

And following by A16, again, A16 is a very, very attractive for the AI server chips.

緊隨其後的是 A16，A16 對於 AI 伺服器晶片來說是非常非常有吸引力的。

And so actually the demand is also very high and so we are working very hard to prepare both 2 nanometer and A16 capacity.

所以實際上需求也非常高，所以我們正在非常努力地準備2奈米和A16產能。

Okay, Bruce.

好吧，布魯斯。

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes, perfect.

是的，完美。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Operator.

操作員。

Can we move on to the next participant please?

我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎？

Brett Simpson, Arete.

布雷特·辛普森，阿雷特。

Yes, thanks very much.

是的，非常感謝。

My question was on the long term planning around AI.

我的問題是關於人工智慧的長期規劃。

Keen to understand how TSMC gets comfortable with customer demand for AI beyond 2025.

熱衷於了解台積電如何滿足 2025 年後客戶對人工智慧的需求。

And I asked this because it takes, you know, a couple of years before you can build a fab.

我問這個問題是因為你知道，你需要幾年時間才能建造一座晶圓廠。

So you need to be taking early, an early view on, you know, what is AI look like in 2026, 2027.

所以你需要儘早、儘早地了解 2026 年、2027 年人工智慧會是什麼樣子。

So how are you, how are you specifically cooperating on long term plans for capacity with these AI customers?

那麼，您如何與這些人工智慧客戶就容量的長期計畫進行具體合作？

What commitments are these customers giving you?

這些客戶給了您什麼承諾？

And I guess historically, we've seen hyperscaler CapEx go through digestion period.

我想從歷史上看，我們已經看到超大規模的資本支出經歷了消化期。

So how do you de-risk the capacity plans here for AI as we go through this, you know, really heavy demand period?

那麼，當我們經歷這個需求旺盛的時期時，如何降低人工智慧產能計畫的風險呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

So Brett's first question again is on the long term planning around AI demand.

因此，布雷特的第一個問題又是圍繞人工智慧需求的長期規劃。

His question is really for beyond 2025 given the lead times, how do we plan our capacity for the long term?

他的問題實際上是，考慮到 2025 年後的交貨時間，我們如何規劃我們的長期產能？

How do we get comfortable around the customer demand related to AI beyond 2025?

2025 年後，我們如何滿足 AI 相關的客戶需求？

I think that that is your gist of your question, Brett.

我認為這就是你問題的要點，布雷特。

Okay, Brett.

好吧，布雷特。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Let me say again that we did talk to a lot of customers.

我再說一遍，我們確實與許多客戶進行了交談。

Almost every AI innovator are working with us and that including the hyperscalers.

幾乎所有人工智慧創新者都在與我們合作，其中包括超大規模企業。

So if you look at the long term market, the long term structural and market demand profile.

因此，如果你著眼於長期市場，長期結構和市場需求狀況。

I think we have some picture in our mind and we make some judgment of course, and we work with them on a rolling basis.

我認為我們心裡有一些想法，當然我們也會做出一些判斷，我們會滾動地與他們合作。

And so how we prepare our capacity?

那我們要如何準備我們的能力呢？

Actually, just like Wendell said, we have a disciplined and throughout system to plan the appropriate level of capacity and that to support our customers’ need and also to maximize our shareholders value.

事實上，正如溫德爾所說，我們有一個嚴格的、全面的系統來規劃適當的產能水平，以支持我們客戶的需求，並最大化我們的股東價值。

That's what we always keep in our mind.

這就是我們始終牢記在心的。

Okay.

好的。

My, my follow up, yeah, that's that's great.

我的，我的後續行動，是的，那太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I guess my follow up question, we've read a lot about Taiwan having energy challenges and this comes at a time when TSMC is preparing for a big node with 2 nanometer.

我想我的後續問題是，我們已經閱讀了很多有關台灣面臨能源挑戰的信息，而這是在台積電正在準備 2 奈米大節點之際發生的。

So my question is, are there any power challenges to overcome when you're building out your N2 fabs especially in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung.

所以我的問題是，當您在新竹和高雄建造 N2 晶圓廠時，是否需要克服任何電力挑戰？

And does it make sense for TSMC to plan for nuclear power?

而台積電規劃核電有意義嗎？

I mean, we see a lot of hyperscalers are planning for nuclear power in the US to build out gigawatt facilities.

我的意思是，我們看到許多超大規模企業正在計劃在美國利用核電建設千兆瓦設施。

How do you think about nuclear power in future for TSMC fabs?

您如何看待台積電晶圓廠未來的核電？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, thank you, Brett.

好的，謝謝你，布雷特。

So Brett second question, he notes that Taiwan electricity and energy, there are a lot of challenges with this.

那麼布雷特的第二個問題，他指出台灣的電力和能源方面存在著許多挑戰。

So how do we plan for this, especially when we're bringing on new nodes.

那麼我們如何對此進行規劃，特別是當我們引入新節點時。

Are there, what are the power challenges to overcome, given the state of Taiwan's energy and then would we consider even nuclear power for ourselves to help support?

考慮到台灣的能源狀況，有哪些電力挑戰需要克服，然後我們是否會考慮使用核電來幫助支援？

Okay, Brett.

好吧，布雷特。

Yes, we are building many fabs in Taiwan and that require electricity, water and land.

是的，我們在台灣建造了許多晶圓廠，需要電力、水和土地。

We continue to work with the government.

我們繼續與政府合作。

Actually, we have a very close communication with government and to tell them that our requirement, our plan and we got assurance from the government say that they will support TSMC’s growth and we, we believe that.

事實上，我們與政府有非常密切的溝通，並告訴他們我們的要求、我們的計劃以及我們從政府得到的保證，他們將支持台積電的發展，我們相信這一點。

And so whether how they prepare for the electricity from the nuclear power plant or from just some kind of, you know, other sources like green energy something.

因此，無論他們如何準備來自核電廠的電力，還是來自某種其他來源（如綠色能源）的電力。

We are not ready to share with you yet.

我們還沒準備好與您分享。

But we got the assurance that we're going to get enough electricity support including the water and the land.

但我們得到保證，我們將獲得足夠的電力支持，包括水和土地。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Brett.

謝謝你，布雷特。

Can we move on to the next participant, please?

我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎？

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

克里斯·桑卡爾，TD·考恩。

Yeah.

是的。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

The first one I had was I'm kind of curious on the non-AI demand.

我的第一個想法是我對非人工智慧需求有點好奇。

How do you look at your wafer demand for PC and mobile into calendar '25?

您如何看待 25 世紀 PC 和行動裝置的晶圓需求？

And have you seen any meaningful revision upwards or downwards on that?

您是否看到任何有意義的向上或向下修正？

And then I had a follow up?

然後我有跟進嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Krish first question is really focus on PC and mobile demand.

所以 Krish 的第一個問題是真正專注於 PC 和行動需求。

How do we see this demand going into 2025.

我們如何看待 2025 年的這項需求？

Have we seen it improve or revision up or downwards, and how would we look at it going into next year?

我們是否看到它有所改善或向上或向下修正？

Okay, Krish, the unit growth of PC and the smartphone is still in low single digit.

好的，Krish，個人電腦和智慧型手機的銷售成長仍處於較低的個位數。

But the more important is the content.

但更重要的是內容。

The content now we put a more AI into their chips, and so the silicon area increases faster than the unit growth.

現在我們在他們的晶片中加入了更多的人工智慧，因此矽面積的成長速度快於單位的成長速度。

So again, I would like to say that for this PC and the smartphone business not only is it gradually increase and we expect it to be healthy in the next few years because of AI related applications.

所以我想說，對於PC和智慧型手機業務來說，它不僅在逐漸成長，而且由於人工智慧相關的應用，我們預計它在未來幾年將保持健康。

Got it, got it very helpful.

明白了，非常有幫助。

And then my quick follow up is, I'm kind of curious, on your packaging side, advanced packaging today is part of the non-wafer revenues.

然後我的快速跟進是，我有點好奇，在封裝方面，今天的先進封裝是非晶圓收入的一部分。

Obviously, you're investing in CoWoS and other technologies.

顯然，您正在投資 CoWoS 和其他技術。

How to think about that advanced packaging revenue growth over the next few years?

如何看待未來幾年先進封裝收入的成長？

And do you think at some point in the next couple of years, advanced packaging can reach corporate level gross margins or would it always be below that?

您認為在未來幾年的某個時候，先進封裝能夠達到企業水準的毛利率還是會一直低於這個水準？

Thank you very much?

非常感謝？

Okay, thank you Krish.

好的，謝謝克里什。

So Krish’s second question is on advanced packaging.

因此，克里什的第二個問題是關於先進封裝的。

So we have been putting a lot of effort.

所以我們付出了很多努力。

So his question is, what is the revenue growth outlook for advanced packaging in the next few years, and also when or do we think it can reach the corporate average gross margin as well?

所以他的問題是，未來幾年先進封裝的營收成長前景如何？

So maybe Wendell can address.

也許溫德爾可以講話。

Yeah, Krish.

是的，克里什。

Advanced packaging in the next several years, let's say five years, will be growing faster than the corporate average.

未來幾年，比如說五年，先進封裝的成長速度將快於企業平均。

This year, it accounts for about high single digit of our revenue.

今年，它約占我們收入的高個位數。

In terms of margins, yes, it is also improving, however, it's approaching corporate but not there yet.

就利潤率而言，是的，它也在改善，但是，它正在接近企業，但還沒有達到。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay, Krish.

好吧，克里什。

Operator in the interest of time, we'll take questions from the last two participants, please.

接線員，由於時間關係，我們將回答最後兩位參與者的問題。

Laura Chen, Citi.

勞拉陳，花旗銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Thank you for taking my question, gentlemen and also congratulations on the strong performance.

先生們，感謝你們提出我的問題，也恭喜你們的出色表現。

I'm just wondering that with the decent free cash flow increase in the recent quarter and I believe that next year will be a decent year for TSMC to grow.

我只是想知道，隨著最近一個季度自由現金流的可觀增長，我相信明年將是台積電增長的一個不錯的一年。

So, is there any opportunity for TSMC to consider increase the cash dividends in the near future?

那麼，台積電近期是否有機會考慮增加現金分紅呢？

And how do you view the balance of capital allocation between shareholder returns and also the continued investment in the advanced technology like 2 and 3 nanometer?

您如何看待股東回報與對2、3奈米等先進技術的持續投資之間的資本配置平衡？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, thank you, Laura.

好的，謝謝你，蘿拉。

So Laura's first question is related around - her question really is looking at our free cash flow generation noting that it is continues to increase and then with next year being a healthy, good year, it should continue to grow.

因此，勞拉的第一個問題與周圍相關——她的問題實際上是在關注我們的自由現金流生成，並指出它正在繼續增加，然後隨著明年是健康、美好的一年，它應該會繼續增長。

So her question is there room or how do we see the cash dividend as related to free cash flow?

所以她的問題是有空間或我們如何看待現金股利與自由現金流的關係？

And also I think Laura really her question was also a balance sheet ramification.

而且我認為勞拉確實她的問題也是資產負債表的影響。

How do we balance the shareholder return interest set against what CC said, a capital intensive industry and CapEx.

我們如何平衡設定的股東報酬率與CC所說的資本密集產業和資本支出。

So two parts to it, first on the cash dividend and then sort of on the balance sheet management.

所以分成兩個部分，首先是現金股息，然後是資產負債表管理。

Right?

正確的？

Laura, certainly dividends.

勞拉，當然是股息。

Our dividend policy as we said before is sustainable and steadily increasing.

正如我們之前所說，我們的股息政策是可持續且穩定成長的。

And steadily increasing when we are harvesting the investment that is made in the past and as the free cash flows increase, that means we are harvesting the investment in the past.

當我們收穫過去的投資時，隨著自由現金流的增加，這意味著我們正在收穫過去的投資，並且穩定增加。

So it's going to be steadily increasing, That's for the dividends.

所以它會穩定增加，這是為了股息。

Balance sheet, where are - the primary objective of our using our balance sheet or our cash resources is organic growth.

資產負債表在哪裡－我們使用資產負債表或現金資源的主要目標是有機成長。

So that will bring our shareholders biggest return.

這樣會為我們的股東帶來最大的回報。

And then whatever the free cash flow is left, then we will return part of those to our shareholders, that's always our policy.

然後，無論剩下多少自由現金流，我們都會將其中的一部分回饋給股東，這始終是我們的政策。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah, that that's very consistent.

是的，這非常一致。

But I think given our like a rich cash flow generating capabilities and also, yeah, I mean, we can probably be able to harvest.

但我認為，鑑於我們擁有豐富的現金流產生能力，而且，是的，我的意思是，我們或許能夠收穫。

So I think the investor kind of expecting the dividends increase gradually.

所以我認為投資人期望股息逐漸增加。

Yeah, and also my second question is about our Foundry 2.0 model that has been discussed since last time.

是的，我的第二個問題是關於我們上次討論過的 Foundry 2.0 模型。

But could you share more details on how the Foundry 2.0 is being implemented.

但您能否分享更多有關 Foundry 2.0 實施方式的詳細資訊？

And from different spec like the traditional logic Foundry business and advanced packaging.

以及來自不同規格的傳統邏輯代工業務和先進封裝業務。

And also maybe the IDM customers, can you give us kind of an idea what will be the like a growth outlook for a different kind of segmentation in that new definition?

也許還有 IDM 客戶，您能為我們介紹一下新定義中不同類型細分市場的成長前景嗎？

Well, Laura, I think you know, again in this Foundry 2.0, among the content inside, the leading process nodes, advanced packaging, will have much stronger growth.

那麼，Laura，我想你也知道，再次在這個Foundry 2.0裡面，裡面的內容，領先的工藝節點，先進的封裝，將會有更強勁的增長。

And on those mature nodes and conventional packaging, that's is not so rosy as advanced packaging and leading process node.

而在那些成熟節點和傳統封裝上，情況並不像先進封裝和領先製程節點那麼樂觀。

Did that answer your question?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Laura operator can move on to the last participant, please.

勞拉操作員可以轉到最後一位參與者。

Rick Hsu, Daiwa.

瑞克·許，大和。

Yeah, hi.

是的，嗨。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So my a very quick one from me.

所以我很快就寄了一封信。

The first one, can you update your forecast for this year's global semiconductor revenue ex-memory?

第一個問題，您能否更新一下您對今年除內存之外的全球半導體收入的預測？

I remember you were talking about around 10% growth.

我記得你說的是 10% 左右的成長。

So can you give us a new update and also share with us a preliminary outlook for next year.

您能為我們帶來新的更新嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Rick's question is really can we, you know, provide an update to our forecast for whether it's semiconductor excluding memory industry growth or/and Foundry 2.0 for 2024 first?

所以 Rick 的問題是，我們真的可以，你知道，首先提供我們對 2024 年半導體（不包括內存行業增長）或/和 Foundry 2.0 的預測的更新嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Well, our forecast stays the same, very similar to what we said the last time.

嗯，我們的預測保持不變，與我們上次所說的非常相似。

Of course, TSMC of growth is a little bit better than the last time we estimate.

當然，台積電的成長比我們上次估計的要好一些。

But overall, the whole industry is almost the same as we said in last quarter.

但總體來說，整個產業與我們上季所說的幾乎是一樣的。

And then the second part of the question, what about next year?

然後問題的第二部分，明年呢？

Well, we continue to say that it's too early to make a comment on 2025 growth outlook.

好吧，我們繼續說，現在對 2025 年成長前景發表評論還為時過早。

But we are going to share with you in the next quarter’s earnings release.

但我們將在下個季度的收益發布中與您分享。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

It's a little question as a follow up, the second one.

這是一個小問題，作為第二個後續問題。

Can you share with us your CoWoS capacity buildup for this year and this year.

您能否與我們分享您今年和今年的 CoWoS 產能建置情況？

I know you guys seem to have revised up several times.

我知道你們似乎已經修改了好幾次了。

So can you share us the latest one?

那麼可以跟我們分享一下最新的嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So Rick's second question then is to update on our CoWoS capacity plan for both 2024 and 2025 to the extent that we can share.

因此，Rick 的第二個問題是更新我們 2024 年和 2025 年的 CoWoS 容量計劃，以便我們能夠分享。

Okay, Rick, in fact, we are putting a lot of effort to increase the capacity of the CoWoS.

好的，Rick，事實上，我們正​​在付出很多努力來增加 CoWoS 的容量。

Roughly, let me share with you, today's situation is our customers’ demand far exceeds our ability to supply.

粗略地跟大家分享一下，今天的情況是我們客戶的需求遠遠超過了我們的供應能力。

So even we work very hard and increase the capacity by about more than twice, more than two times as of this year compared with last year, and probably double again, but still not enough.

所以即使我們很努力，把產能增加了大約兩倍多，今年比去年增加了兩倍多，可能還會再增加一倍，但還是不夠。

And, but anyway, we are working very hard to meet the customer's requirement.

但無論如何，我們正在非常努力地滿足客戶的要求。

All right.

好的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Okay, thank you, Rick.

好的，謝謝你，瑞克。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This concludes our Q&A session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now and the transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which you can find and are available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，會議重播將在 30 分鐘內提供，會議記錄將在 24 小時後提供，您可以透過台積電網站 www.tsmc 找到並取得這些內容。

So thank you everyone for joining us today.

感謝大家今天加入我們。

We hope everyone continues to be well, and we hope to see you again and you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望每個人都一切順利，我們希望再次見到您，您將在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。