台積電 ADR (TSM) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

（外文）大家下午好，歡迎參加台積電2024年第一季財報電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials shortly. (Operator Instructions)

台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 透過現場音訊網路直播舉辦我們的財報電話會議，您也可以在該網站上快速下載財報發布資料。 （操作員說明）

The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the first quarter 2024, followed by our guidance for the second quarter 2024. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C. C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open the lines for the question-and-answer session.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電高級副總裁兼財務長黃文德爾先生將總結我們2024年第一季的營運情況，然後是我們對2024年第二季的指導。執行長魏志祥博士將共同發表公司的關鍵資訊。然後我們將開放問答環節。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在我想將電話轉給台積電首席財務官黃文德爾先生，以獲取營運摘要和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the first quarter 2024. After that, I will provide the guidance for the second quarter 2024.

謝謝你，傑夫。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從 2024 年第一季的財務亮點開始。

First quarter revenue decreased 5.3% sequentially in NT dollars or 3.8% in U.S. dollars as our business was impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued HPC-related demand. Gross margin increased 0.1 percentage point sequentially to 53.1%, mainly reflecting product mix changes due to smartphone seasonality, partially offset by a less favorable foreign exchange rate.

第一季營收按新台幣計算環比下降 5.3%，以美元計算環比下降 3.8%，因為我們的業務受到智慧型手機季節性的影響，但部分被持續的 HPC 相關需求所抵消。毛利率季增 0.1 個百分點，達到 53.1%，主要反映了智慧型手機季節性導致的產品結構變化，但部分被不利的匯率所抵銷。

Total operating expenses accounted for 11.1% of net revenue, which is lower than the 12% implied in our first quarter guidance, mainly due to tighter expense controls. Thus, operating margin increased 0.4 percentage points sequentially to 42%. Overall, our first quarter EPS was TWD 8.7 and ROE was 25.4%.

總營運費用佔淨收入的 11.1%，低於我們第一季指引中暗示的 12%，這主要是由於費用控制更加嚴格。因此，營業利潤率比上一季增加了 0.4 個百分點，達到 42%。整體而言，我們第一季 EPS 為新台幣 8.7，ROE 為 25.4%。

Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3-nanometer process technology contributed 9% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, whilst 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 37% and 19%, respectively. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 65% of wafer revenue.

現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。 3奈米製程技術佔第一季晶圓收入的9%，而5奈米和7奈米製程技術分別佔37%和19%。 7 奈米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 65%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 3% quarter-over-quarter to account for 46% of our first quarter revenue. Smartphone decreased 16% to account for 38%. IoT increased 5% to account for 6%. Automotive remained flat and accounted for 6%, and DCE increased 33% to account for 2%.

接下來是平台的營收貢獻。 HPC 環比成長 3%，佔第一季營收的 46%。智慧型手機佔比下降 16%，至 38%。物聯網成長了 5%，佔 6%。汽車佔比持平，佔 6%；大商佔 2%，成長 33%。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.9 trillion or USD 60 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 113 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD 140 billion in accrued liabilities and others, partially offset by the decrease of TWD 44 billion in accounts payable. The increase in accrued liabilities and others was mainly due to the reclassification of the temporary receipt from customers from long-term liabilities.

繼續看資產負債表。第一季結束時，我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 1.9 兆，即 600 億美元。負債方面，流動負債增加1,130億元新台幣，主要是因應計負債及其他增加1,400億元新台幣，部分被應付帳款減少440億元新台幣所抵銷。預提負債及其他增加主要是由於長期負債中將臨時客戶收入重分類所致。

Our financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days remained at 31 days, while days of inventory increased 5 days to 90 days, primarily due to ramp of 3-nanometer technologies.

我們的財務比率、應收帳款週轉天數維持在 31 天，而庫存天數增加 5 天至 90 天，這主要是由於 3 奈米技術的提升。

Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 436 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 181 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 78 billion for second quarter 2023 cash dividend. In addition, we raised TWD 23 billion in cash from bond issuances.

關於現金流和資本支出。第一季度，我們從營運中產生了約 4,360 億新台幣的現金，資本支出為 1,810 億新台幣，並派發了 780 億新台幣作為 2023 年第二季度的現金股息。此外，我們也透過發債籌集了230億新台幣的現金。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 233 billion to TWD 1.7 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditures totaled $5.77 billion.

總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 2,330 億新台幣，達到 1.7 兆新台幣。以美元計算，我們第一季的資本支出總計 57.7 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. We expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by continued smartphone seasonality.

我已經完成了財務摘要。現在讓我們轉向當前季度的指導。我們預計我們的業務將受到對該行業領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁需求的支持，但智慧型手機季節性的持續成長將部分抵消這一需求。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between USD 19.6 billion and USD 20.4 billion, which represents a 6% sequential increase and 27.6% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 32.3, gross margin is expected to be between 51% and 53%, operating margin between 40% and 42%.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第二季營收將在 196 億美元至 204 億美元之間，季增 6%，年增 27.6%。根據1美元兌換32.3新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在51%至53%之間，營業利益率在40%至42%之間。

Also, in the second quarter, we will need to accrue the tax on the undistributed retained earnings. As a result, our second quarter tax rate will be slightly above 19%. The tax rate will then fall back to 13% to 14% level in the third and fourth quarter, and the full year tax rate will be between 15% to 16% compared to 14.5% in 2023. This concludes my financial presentation.

此外，在第二季度，我們將需要對未分配的留存收益計稅。因此，我們第二季的稅率將略高於 19%。然後，稅率將在第三和第四季回落至 13% 至 14% 的水平，全年稅率將在 15% 至 16% 之間，而 2023 年為 14.5%。

Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on the impact from the April 3 earthquake. On April 3, an earthquake of 7.2 magnitude struck Taiwan, and the maximum magnitude of our fabs was 5. Safety systems and protocols at our fabs were initiated immediately, and all TSMC personnel are safe.

現在讓我談談我們的關鍵訊息。我首先對 4 月 3 日地震的影響發表一些評論。 4月3日，台灣發生7.2級地震，我們晶圓廠的最大震級為5級。

Based on TSMC's deep experience and capabilities in earthquake response and damage prevention as well as regular disasters drills, the overall tool recovery in our fabs reached more than 70% within the first 10 hours and were fully recovered by the end of the third day. There were no power outages, no structural damage to our fabs, and there's no damage to our critical tools, including all of our EUV lithography tools.

基於台積電在地震應對和損害預防方面的豐富經驗和能力以及定期的災難演習，我們晶圓廠的整體設備恢復率在前10小時內達到了70%以上，並在第三天結束時完全恢復。我們的晶圓廠沒有停電、結構性損壞，我們的關鍵工具（包括所有 EUV 微影工具）也沒有損壞。

That being said, a certain number of wafers in process were impacted and had to be scrapped, but we expect most of the lost production to be recovered in the second quarter and, thus, minimum impact to our second quarter revenue. We expect the total impact from the earthquake to reduce our second quarter gross margin by about 50 basis points, mainly due to the losses associated with wafer scraps and material loss.

話雖這麼說，一定數量的加工中的晶圓受到影響，不得不報廢，但我們預計大部分損失的產量將在第二季度恢復，因此對我們第二季度收入的影響最小。我們預計地震的整體影響將使我們第二季的毛利率降低約 50 個基點，這主要是由於與晶圓廢料和材料損失相關的損失。

Next, let me talk about our first quarter '24 and second quarter '24 profitability. Compared to fourth quarter 2023, our first quarter gross margin slightly increased by 10 basis points sequentially to 53.1%, primarily driven by product mix changes due to smartphone seasonality. We have just guided our second quarter gross margin to decline by 1.1 percentage points to 52% at the midpoint, primarily due to the impact from the earthquake on April 3, as just discussed, and higher electricity cost in Taiwan.

接下來，讓我談談我們'24第一季和'24第二季的獲利能力。與 2023 年第四季相比，我們第一季的毛利率較上季小幅成長 10 個基點，達到 53.1%，這主要是由於智慧型手機季節性導致的產品組合變化所致。我們剛剛預計第二季毛利率中位數將下降 1.1 個百分點至 52%，這主要是由於剛才討論的 4 月 3 日地震的影響以及台灣電費上漲的影響。

After last year's 17% electricity price increase from April 1, TSMC's electricity price in Taiwan has increased by another 25% starting April 1 this year. This is expected to take out 70 to 80 basis points from our second quarter gross margin. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the impact from higher electricity cost to continue and dilute our gross margin by 60 to 70 basis points. We also expect the higher electricity cost to indirectly lead to higher materials, chemical and gases and other variable costs.

繼去年4月1日起電價上漲17%後，今年4月1日起，台積電在台灣的電價又上漲了25%。預計這將使我們第二季的毛利率下降 70 至 80 個基點。展望下半年，我們預計電費上漲的影響將持續，並將導致我們的毛利率下降 60 至 70 個基點。我們也預期更高的電力成本將間接導致更高的材料、化學品和氣體以及其他可變成本。

In addition, we expect our overall business in the second quarter of the year to be stronger than the first half. And the revenue contribution from 3-nanometer technologies is expected to increase as well, which will dilute our gross margin by 3 to 4 percentage points in second half of '24 as compared to 2 to 3 percentage points in first half of '24.

此外，我們預計今年第二季的整體業務將強於上半年。 3奈米技術的收入貢獻預計也會增加，這將使我們的毛利率在2024年下半年下降3至4個百分點，而24年上半年為2至3個百分點。

Finally, as we have said before, we have a strategy to convert some 5-nanometer tools to support 3-nanometer capacity given the strong multiyear demand. We expect this conversion to dilute our gross margin by about 1 to 2 percentage points in the second half of 2024.

最後，正如我們之前所說，鑑於多年的強勁需求，我們制定了一項策略，將一些 5 奈米工具轉換為支援 3 奈米產能。我們預計這項轉換將在 2024 年下半年將我們的毛利率稀釋約 1 至 2 個百分點。

To manage our profitability in second half 2024, we will work diligently on internal cost improvement efforts while continuing to sell our value. Longer term, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate and considering our global manufacturing footprint expansion plans, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.

為了管理 2024 年下半年的獲利能力，我們將努力改善內部成本，同時繼續銷售我們的價值。從長遠來看，排除匯率的影響並考慮到我們的全球製造足跡擴張計劃，我們繼續預測長期毛利率可以達到 53% 及更高。

Okay. Sorry to interrupt, Wendell, because we have been informed that some of the audience are having difficulty linking through the website to the call. So let's pause a few minutes, and we'll continue once we resolve the IT issue. Thank you, everyone, for your patience.

好的。很抱歉打斷，溫德爾，因為我們獲悉，一些觀眾很難透過網站連結到電話會議。讓我們暫停幾分鐘，解決 IT 問題後我們將繼續。謝謝大家的耐心等待。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

[Audience] on the telephone call, sorry, we're having a little bit of IT issue. We should expect hopefully to resolve it very soon. So just please hang on for a few more minutes, and thank you for your patience.

[觀眾] 在電話中，抱歉，我們遇到了一些 IT 問題。我們應該希望很快就能解決這個問題。請再耐心等待幾分鐘，感謝您的耐心等待。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for your patience. Sorry about the technical issues. We believe the webcast, if you're through the TSMC website, you should be able to log back in and listen to the webcast. For those of you on the line or having difficulty with the telephone, I think try the webcast first and the telephone line should be available shortly. Again, sorry for the inconvenience, and thank you for the patience.

好的。謝謝大家的耐心等待。對於技術問題，我們深表歉意。我們相信網路廣播，如果您透過台積電網站，您應該能夠重新登入並收聽網路廣播。對於那些在線上或打電話有困難的人，我想先嘗試一下網路廣播，電話線應該很快就能接通。再次對造成您的不便表示歉意，並感謝您的耐心等待。

In light of the fact that we had these technical issues, I think we'll start with Wendell Huang, our CFO, to give our guidance, and then we will go into our prepared remarks. Thank you.

鑑於我們遇到了這些技術問題，我認為我們將首先由我們的財務長 Wendell Huang 提供指導，然後我們將進入我們準備好的演講。謝謝。

Thank you, Jeff. Sorry, everyone.

謝謝你，傑夫。對不起，大家。

Let me repeat the guidance for second quarter again. For the second quarter of 2024, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by continued smartphone seasonality.

讓我再次重申第二季度的指引。對於 2024 年第二季度，我們預計我們的業務將受到對行業領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁需求的支持，但智慧型手機季節性的持續成長將部分抵消這一需求。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between USD 19.6 billion and USD 20.4 billion, which represents a 6% sequential increase or a 27.6% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 32.3, gross margin is expected to be between 51% and 53%, operating margin between 40% and 42%.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第二季營收將在 196 億美元至 204 億美元之間，季增 6%，中間值年增 27.6%。根據1美元兌換32.3新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在51%至53%之間，營業利益率在40%至42%之間。

Also, in the second quarter, we will need to accrue the tax on the undistributed retained earnings. As a result, our second quarter tax rate will be slightly above 19%. The tax rate will then fall back to 13% to 14% level in the third and fourth quarter, and the full year tax rate will be between 15% to 16% compared to 14.5% in 2023.

此外，在第二季度，我們將需要對未分配的留存收益計稅。因此，我們第二季的稅率將略高於 19%。第三季和第四季稅率將回落至13%至14%水平，全年稅率將從2023年的14.5%降至15%至16%之間。

Now that concludes the financial presentation. Let me now repeat our key messages. I will start by making some comments on the impact from the April 3 earthquake. On April 3, an earthquake of 7.2 magnitude struck Taiwan, and the maximum magnitude at our fabs was 5. Safety systems and protocols at our fabs were initiated immediately, and all TSMC personnel are safe.

財務報告到此結束。現在讓我重複一下我們的關鍵訊息。我首先對 4 月 3 日地震的影響發表一些評論。 4月3日，台灣發生7.2級地震，我們廠區的最大震級為5級。

Based on TSMC's deep experience and capabilities in earthquake response and damage prevention as well as regular disasters drills, the overall tool recovery in our fabs reached more than 70% within the first 10 hours and were fully recovered by the end of the third day. There were no power shortages, no structure damage to our fabs and there is no damage to our critical tools, including all of our EUV lithography tools.

基於台積電在地震應對和損害預防方面的豐富經驗和能力以及定期的災難演習，我們晶圓廠的整體設備恢復率在前10小時內達到了70%以上，並在第三天結束時完全恢復。我們的晶圓廠沒有發生電力短缺、結構損壞，我們的關鍵工具（包括我們所有的 EUV 微影工具）也沒有損壞。

That being said, a certain number of wafers in process were impacted and had to be scrapped, but we expect most of the lost production to be recovered in the second quarter and, thus, minimal impact to our second quarter revenue. We expect the total impact from the earthquake to reduce our second quarter gross margin by about 50 basis points, mainly due to the losses associated with wafer scraps and material loss.

話雖這麼說，一定數量的加工中的晶圓受到影響，不得不報廢，但我們預計大部分損失的產量將在第二季度恢復，因此對我們第二季度收入的影響最小。我們預計地震的整體影響將使我們第二季的毛利率降低約 50 個基點，這主要是由於與晶圓廢料和材料損失相關的損失。

Next, let me talk about our first quarter 2024 and second quarter 2024 profitability. Compared to fourth quarter of 2023, our first quarter gross margin slightly increased by 10 basis points sequentially to 53.1%, primarily driven by product mix changes due to smartphone seasonality. We have just guided our second quarter gross margin to decline by 1.1 percentage points to 52% at the midpoint, primarily due to impact from the earthquake on April 3, as just discussed, and higher electricity costs in Taiwan.

接下來我來講一下我們2024年第一季和2024年第二季的獲利狀況。與 2023 年第四季相比，我們第一季的毛利率較上季小幅成長 10 個基點，達到 53.1%，這主要是由於智慧型手機季節性導致的產品結構變化所致。我們剛剛指導第二季毛利率中點下降 1.1 個百分點至 52%，這主要是由於剛才討論的 4 月 3 日地震的影響以及台灣電費上漲。

After last year's 17% electricity price increase from April 1, TSMC's electricity price in Taiwan was -- has increased by another 25% starting April 1 this year. This is expected to take out 70 to 80 basis points from our second quarter gross margin. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect the impact from higher electricity costs continue and dilute our gross margin by 60 to 70 basis points. We also expect the higher electricity cost to indirectly lead to higher materials, chemicals and gases and other variable costs.

繼去年4月1日起電價上漲17%後，台積電在台灣的電價今年4月1日起又上漲了25%。預計這將使我們第二季的毛利率下降 70 至 80 個基點。展望下半年，我們預計電費上漲的影響將持續，並將導致我們的毛利率下降 60 至 70 個基點。我們也預期更高的電力成本將間接導致更高的材料、化學品和氣體以及其他可變成本。

In addition, we expect our overall business in the second half of the year to be stronger than the first half. And revenue contribution from 3-nanometer technologies is expected to increase as well, which will dilute our gross margin by 3 to 4 percentage points in second half '24 as compared to 2 to 3 percentage points in first half of '24.

此外，我們預計下半年我們的整體業務將強於上半年。 3奈米技術的收入貢獻預計也會增加，這將使我們的毛利率在2024年下半年下降3至4個百分點，而24年上半年為2至3個百分點。

Finally, as we have said before, we have a strategy to convert some 5-nanometer tools to support 3-nanometer capacity given the strong multiyear demand. We expect this conversion to dilute our gross margin by about 1 to 2 percentage points in the second half of 2024.

最後，正如我們之前所說，鑑於多年的強勁需求，我們制定了一項策略，將一些 5 奈米工具轉換為支援 3 奈米產能。我們預計這項轉換將在 2024 年下半年將我們的毛利率稀釋約 1 至 2 個百分點。

To manage our profitability in second half of '24, we will work diligently on internal cost improvement efforts while continuing to sell our value. Longer term, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate and considering our global manufacturing footprint expansion plans, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.

為了管理 24 年下半年的獲利能力，我們將努力改善內部成本，同時繼續銷售我們的價值。從長遠來看，排除匯率的影響並考慮到我們的全球製造足跡擴張計劃，我們繼續預測長期毛利率可以達到 53% 及更高。

Finally, let me talk about our 2024 capital budget. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years. Our CapEx and capacity planning is always based on long-term market demand profile. We reiterate our 2024 capital budget is expected to be between USD 28 billion and USD 32 billion as we continue to invest to support customers' growth.

最後我說一下我們2024年的資本預算。每年，我們的資本支出都用於預測未來幾年的成長。我們的資本支出和產能規劃始終基於長期市場需求狀況。我們重申，隨著我們繼續投資以支持客戶的成長，2024 年的資本預算預計將在 280 億美元至 320 億美元之間。

Out of the USD 28 billion to USD 32 billion CapEx for 2024, between 70% and 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making and others.

在 2024 年 280 億美元至 320 億美元的資本支出中，70% 至 80% 的資本預算將用於先進製程技術，約 10% 至 20% 將用於特種技術，約 10% 將用於先進封裝、測試、掩模製造等。

Now let me turn the microphone over to C. C.

現在讓我把麥克風交給 C. C.

Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. Before I start, I would like to take a moment and make a few remarks.

謝謝你，溫德爾。大家下午好。在開始之前，我想花點時間說幾句話。

On April 3, TSMC experienced a major-scale earthquake of 7.2 magnitude. Our deepest sympathies and heart go out to all those who are affected by this tragedy. I also want to recognize and deeply thank all of our employees and our suppliers for their dedication and hard effort during this time.

4月3日，台積電遭遇7.2級特大地震。我們向所有受這場悲劇影響的人表示最深切的同情和同情。我還要表彰並深深感謝我們所有員工和供應商在這段時間的奉獻和辛勤努力。

Although it was largest earthquake in Taiwan in the last 25 years, we worked together tirelessly and were able to resume for operation at all our fab within 3 days with minimal disruptions, demonstrating the resilience of our operation in Taiwan.

儘管這是台灣過去 25 年來最嚴重的地震，但我們不懈努力，在 3 天內恢復了所有晶圓廠的運營，且幹擾最小，展現了我們在台灣運營的韌性。

Lastly, I would also like to extend our great appreciation to our customers with their understanding and support as we work to recover the lost production during the second quarter.

最後，我還要感謝客戶的理解和支持，我們將努力恢復第二季的生產損失。

Now let me start my prepared remarks with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our first quarter with revenue of USD 18.9 billion, slightly above our guidance in U.S. dollar terms. Our business in the first quarter was impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued HPC-related demand.

現在讓我以我們的近期需求前景開始我準備好的發言。我們第一季的營收為 189 億美元，略高於我們以美元計算的指引值。我們第一季的業務受到智慧型手機季節性的影響，但部分被持續的 HPC 相關需求所抵消。

Moving into second quarter 2024, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by continued smartphone seasonality.

進入 2024 年第二季度，我們預計我們的業務將受到對行業領先的 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術的強勁需求的支持，但智慧型手機季節性的持續成長將部分抵消這一需求。

Looking at the full year 2024, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persists, potentially further weighing on consumer sentiment and end-market demand. We thus expect the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to experience a more mild and gradual recovery in 2024.

展望2024年全年，宏觀經濟與地緣政治的不確定性仍存在，可能進一步打壓消費者信心與終端市場需求。因此，我們預計整個半導體市場（不包括記憶體）將在 2024 年經歷更溫和和逐步的復甦。

We lowered our forecast for the 2024 overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to increase by approximately 10% year-over-year, while foundry industry growth is now forecast to be mid- to high-teens percent, both are coming off the steep inventory correction and/or base of 2023. Having said that, we continue to expect 2024 to be a healthy growth year for TSMC.

我們下調了 2024 年整體半導體市場（不包括內存）的預測，預計將同比增長約 10%，而代工行業的增長目前預計為百分之十左右，兩者都擺脫了庫存過高的局面修正和/或以2023 年為基數。

Supported by our technology leadership and broader customer base, we expect that our business to grow quarter-over-quarter throughout 2024 and reaffirm our full year revenue to increase by low to mid-20% in U.S. dollar terms.

在我們的技術領先地位和更廣泛的客戶群的支持下，我們預計我們的業務將在 2024 年實現季度環比增長，並重申我們的全年收入以美元計算將增長 20% 至 20%。

Next, I will talk about the strong AI-related demand outlook. The continued surge in AI-related demand supports our already strong conviction that structural demand for energy-efficient computing is accelerating in an intelligent and connected world. TSMC is a key enabler of AI applications.

接下來，我將談談與人工智慧相關的強勁需求前景。人工智慧相關需求的持續激增支持了我們本已堅定的信念，即在智慧互聯的世界中，對節能運算的結構性需求正在加速成長。台積電是人工智慧應用的關鍵推動者。

AI technology is evolving to use ever increasingly complex AI models, which needs to be supported by more powerful semiconductor hardware. No matter which approach is taken, it requires use of the most advanced semiconductor process technologies. Thus, the value of our technology position is increasing as customers rely on TSMC to provide the most advanced process and packaging technology at scale with a dependable and predictable cadence of technology offering.

人工智慧技術正在不斷發展，使用越來越複雜的人工智慧模型，這需要更強大的半導體硬體的支援。無論採取哪種方法，都需要使用最先進的半導體製程技術。因此，隨著客戶依賴台積電以可靠且可預測的技術提供節奏大規模提供最先進的工藝和封裝技術，我們技術地位的價值正在增加。

In summary, our technology leadership enable TSMC to win business and enables our customer to win business in their end market. Almost all the AI innovators are working with TSMC to address the insatiable AI-related demand for energy-efficient computing power. We forecast the revenue contribution from several AI processors to more than double this year and account for low-teens percent of our total revenue in 2024.

總之，我們的技術領先地位使台積電能夠贏得業務，並使我們的客戶能夠在其終端市場贏得業務。幾乎所有的人工智慧創新者都在與台積電合作，以滿足人工智慧相關的節能運算能力的永不滿足的需求。我們預計今年多種人工智慧處理器的收入貢獻將增加一倍以上，並在 2024 年占我們總收入的百分之十幾。

For the next 5 years, we forecast it to grow at 50% CAGR and increase to higher than 20% of our revenue by 2028. Several AI processors are narrowly defined as GPUs, AI accelerators and CPU's performing, training and inference functions and do not include the networking edge or on-device AI. We expect several AI processors to be the strongest driver of our HPC platform growth and the largest contributor in terms of our overall incremental revenue growth in the next several years.

未來5 年，我們預計其複合年增長率將達到50%，到2028 年將占我們收入的20% 以上。 ，但它們並不包括網路邊緣或裝置上的人工智慧。我們預計，未來幾年，幾款人工智慧處理器將成為我們 HPC 平台成長的最強勁驅動力，也是我們整體增量收入成長的最大貢獻者。

Now let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update. TSMC's mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global IC -- logic IC industry for years to come. Given the strong HPC and AI-related demand, it is strategically important for TSMC to expand our global manufacturing footprint to continue to support our U.S. customers' growth, increase customers' trust and expand our future growth potential.

現在讓我談談我們的全球製造足跡更新。台積電的使命是在未來幾年成為全球積體電路（邏輯積體電路）產業值得信賴的技術和產能供應商。鑑於強勁的高效能運算和人工智慧相關需求，對於台積電來說，擴大全球製造足跡以繼續支持美國客戶的成長、增加客戶的信任並擴大我們未來的成長潛力具有重要的戰略意義。

In Arizona, we have received the strong commitment and support from our U.S. customers and plan to build 3 fabs, which help to create greater economies of scale. Each of our fab in Arizona will have a clean-room area that is approximately double the size of a typical logical fab. We have made significant progress in our first fab, which has already entered engineering wafer production in April with the N4 process technology. We are well on track for volume production in first half 2025.

在亞利桑那州，我們得到了美國客戶的大力承諾和支持，計劃建造3座晶圓廠，有助於創造更大的規模經濟。我們位於亞利桑那州的每個晶圓廠都將擁有一個無塵室面積，其面積約為典型邏輯晶圓廠的兩倍。我們的第一座晶圓廠已取得重大進展，已於 4 月採用 N4 製程技術進入工程晶圓生產。我們預計在 2025 年上半年實現量產。

Our second fab has been upgraded to utilize 2-nanometer technologies to support a strong AI-related demand in addition to the previously announced 3-nanometer. We recently completed the [tapping off], in which the last steel construction beam was raised into place, and volume production is scheduled to begin in 2028.

除了先前宣布的 3 奈米技術之外，我們的第二座晶圓廠已升級為利用 2 奈米技術來支援強大的人工智慧相關需求。我們最近完成了 [tapping off]，其中最後一根鋼結構梁已升起就位，計劃於 2028 年開始批量生產。

We also recently announced plans to build a third fab in Arizona using 2-nanometer or more advanced technologies, with production beginning by the end of the decade. We are confident that once we begin volume production, we will be able to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability in each of our fab in Arizona as from our fab in Taiwan.

我們最近也宣布計劃在亞利桑那州建造第三座晶圓廠，採用 2 奈米或更先進的技術，並在本世紀末開始生產。我們相信，一旦開始大量生產，我們將能夠在亞利桑那州的每個工廠提供與台灣工廠相同水準的製造品質和可靠性。

In Japan, we held an opening ceremony in February in Kumamoto for our first specialty technology fab. This fab will utilize the 12/16 and the 22/28-nanometer process technologies and is on track for volume production in the fourth quarter of this year.

在日本，我們於二月在熊本舉行了第一家專業技術工廠的開幕儀式。該工廠將採用12/16和22/28奈米製程技術，預計今年第四季實現量產。

Together with our JV partners, we also announced a plan to build a second specialty fab in Japan with 40, 12/16 and the 6/7-nanometer process technologies to support a strategic customer for consumer, automotive, industrial and HPC-related applications. Construction is scheduled to begin in second half '24 with production target by the end 2027.

我們也與合資夥伴一起宣布計劃在日本建造第二座採用 40、12/16 和 6/7 奈米製程技術的特種晶圓廠，以支援消費、汽車、工業和 HPC 相關應用的策略客戶。建設計劃於 2024 年下半年開始，目標是在 2027 年底實現生產。

In Europe, we plan to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany, focusing on automotive and industrial applications with our JV partners where construction is scheduled to begin in fourth quarter this year. Our overseas decision are based on our customers' need and the necessary level of government support. This is to maximize the value for our shareholders.

在歐洲，我們計劃與合資夥伴在德國德勒斯登建立專業技術工廠，專注於汽車和工業應用，預計今年第四季開始建造。我們的海外決策是基於客戶的需求和必要的政府支援程度。這是為了我們股東的價值最大化。

In today's fragmented globalization environment, cost will be higher of everyone, including TSMC, our customers, our competitors and the entire semiconductor industry. We plan to manage and minimize the overseas cost gap by, first, pricing strategically to reflect the value of geographic flexibility; second, working closely with government to secure their support; and third, leveraging our fundamental advantage of manufacturing technology leadership and our large-scale manufacturing base, which no other manufacturer in this industry can match.

在當今碎片化的全球化環境中，每個人的成本都會更高，包括台積電、我們的客戶、我們的競爭對手以及整個半導體產業。我們計劃透過以下方式管理和最小化海外成本差距：首先，策略性定價以反映地域靈活性的價值；其次，與政府密切合作，爭取政府的支持；三是製造技術領先和規模化製造基地的根本優勢，是業界其他製造商無法比擬的。

Thus, even after factoring in the higher cost of overseas fab, we are confident to deliver a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher and sustainable ROE of greater than 25% that we have committed to our shareholders. At the same time, TSMC will be the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturer in the region that we operate. We are continuing to provide our customers with the most advanced technology at scale to support their growth.

因此，即使考慮到海外晶圓廠成本較高的因素，我們仍然有信心實現向股東承諾的53%的長期毛利率以及高於25%的更高且可持續的ROE。同時，台積電將成為我們經營地區最有效率、最具成本效益的製造商。我們將繼續為客戶大規模提供最先進的技術，以支持他們的發展。

Finally, I will talk about our N2 status. Our N2 technology leads our industry in addressing the insatiable need for energy-efficient computing, and almost all AI innovators are working with TSMC. We are observing a high level of customer interest and engagement at N2 and expect the number of the new tape-outs from 2-nanometer technology in its first 2 years to be higher than both 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer in their first 2 years.

最後說一下我們的N2狀態。我們的 N2 技術引領業界解決對節能運算的永不滿足的需求，幾乎所有人工智慧創新者都與台積電合作。我們觀察到 N2 客戶的興趣和參與度很高，預計 2 奈米技術前兩年的新流片數量將高於 3 奈米和 5 奈米技術前兩年。

Our 2-nanometer technology will adopt the nanosheet transistors structure and be the most advanced semiconductor industry technology in both density and energy efficiency. N2 technology development is progressing well with device performance and yield on track or ahead of plan. N2 is on track for volume production in 2025 with a ramp profile similar to N3. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, N2 and its derivative will further extend our technology leadership position and enable TSMC to capture the AI-related growth opportunities well into future.

我們的2奈米技術將採用奈米片電晶體結構，無論是密度或能源效率都是最先進的半導體產業技術。 N2 技術開發進展順利，裝置效能和產量均按計畫或提前完成。 N2 預計於 2025 年實現量產，其坡道輪廓與 N3 類似。隨著我們不斷增強的策略，N2及其衍生產品將進一步擴大我們的技術領先地位，並使台積電能夠在未來抓住人工智慧相關的成長機會。

This concludes our key message, and thank you for your attention.

我們的關鍵訊息到此結束，感謝您的關注。

Okay. Thank you, C. C. This concludes our prepared remarks. Again, thank you, everyone, for your patience. (Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions) So now let's begin the Q&A session. Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line? Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，C.C. 我們準備好的發言到此結束。再次感謝大家的耐心等待。 （操作員說明）如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。 （操作員說明） 現在讓我們開始問答環節。接線員，我們可以接聽線路上的第一個呼叫者嗎？謝謝。

The first one to ask questions is Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

第一個提問的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

My first questions are on demand. So C. C., you kind of reduced the expectation for the overall semiconductor industry growth. Could you talk a little bit about where is the area where you have seen that slower pickup in demand? I think you talked about smartphone a couple of times in the call. Is it primarily the smartphone area where you've seen a slower pickup in terms of demand?

我的第一個問題是應要求提出的。所以，C.C.，您降低了對整個半導體產業成長的預期。您能否談談您認為需求成長較慢的領域是哪些？我想你在電話中多次談到了智慧型手機。您發現需求成長緩慢的主要是智慧型手機領域嗎？

And previously, a couple of quarters back, you talked about cannibalization or decline in regular data center demand due to the crowding out of AI and being a drag for TSMC. Do you see that the regular compute, regular data center networking kind of demand is coming back? Or is it still remaining muted and most of the demand uptick is still focused on AI?

在此之前，幾個季度前，您談到了由於人工智慧的擠出以及對台積電的拖累而導致常規資料中心需求的蠶食或下降。您是否看到常規計算、常規資料中心網路類型的需求正在回歸？或者它仍然保持沉默並且大部分需求成長仍然集中在人工智慧上？

Okay. So Gokul, thank you. So Gokul's first question is a little bit 2 parts. So he notes that we have lowered our overall semiconductor ex memory growth forecast for this year to approximately 10% and foundry now to mid to high teens. So Gokul wants to understand, in what segments or applications or areas are we seeing a slower pickup in demand? And then also, in terms of specifically AI versus traditional servers, how are you seeing that demand shape out? And what is the impact to TSMC? Is that generally correct, Gokul?

好的。戈庫爾，謝謝你。因此，Gokul 的第一個問題有兩個部分。因此，他指出，我們已將今年半導體前記憶體的整體成長預測下調至 10% 左右，而代工目前的成長預測則下調至中高位。因此，Gokul 想了解，我們在哪些細分市場、應用程式或領域看到需求成長放緩？另外，就人工智慧與傳統伺服器而言，您如何看待這種需求的形成？對台積電有何影響？戈庫爾，這通常是正確的嗎？

Yes. And I think maybe since you called out smartphone, just maybe mention how you see the smartphone demand compared to maybe 3 months back as well.

是的。我想也許既然你提到了智慧型手機，那麼也許也可以談談你對智慧型手機需求的看法，與三個月前相比。

Well, Gokul, this is C. C. Wei. Let me answer your questions and some of your comment also. Yes, smartphone end-market demand is seeing gradual recovery and not a steep recovery, of course. PC has been bottomed out and the recovery is slower. However, AI-related data center demand is very, very strong. And the traditional server demand is slow, lukewarm. IoT and consumer remain sluggish. Automotive inventory continue to correct, okay?

好吧，Gokul，我是 C.C. Wei。讓我回答您的問題以及您的一些評論。是的，智慧型手機終端市場的需求正在逐步復甦，當然不是急劇復甦。 PC已見底，復甦較慢。然而，與人工智慧相關的資料中心需求非常非常強勁。而傳統的伺服器需求緩慢、不冷不熱。物聯網和消費者仍低迷。汽車庫存繼續修正好嗎？

What does that mean to TSMC? The budget for a hyperscale player, their wallet share shifted from traditional server to AI server is favorable for TSMC. And we are able to capture most of the semiconductor content in an AI server's area as we define the GPU, [edge AI] networking processor, et cetera. Well, we have a lower presence in those CPU-only, CPU-centric traditional server. So we expect our growth will be very healthy. Do I answer your question, Gokul?

這對台積電意味著什麼？超大規模玩家的預算，他們的錢包份額從傳統伺服器轉移到人工智慧伺服器，對台積電有利。當我們定義 GPU、[邊緣 AI] 網路處理器等時，我們能夠捕捉 AI 伺服器區域中的大部分半導體內容。嗯，我們在那些僅使用 CPU、以 CPU 為中心的傳統伺服器中的存在感較低。所以我們預計我們的成長將非常健康。我可以回答你的問題嗎，戈庫爾？

Okay. So yes, I just wanted to ask, is it smartphone the main change compared to, let's say, back in January when you had more than 10% growth for semi? Or is it across the board you're seeing a slower recovery?

好的。所以，是的，我只是想問，與 1 月份半導體業務成長超過 10% 相比，智慧型手機是主要變化嗎？還是您發現整體復甦速度較慢？

So Gokul is asking sort of versus 3 months ago, where have we seen the major shift in the overall end market? Is there a particular area that we have seen?

因此，Gokul 的問題是，與 3 個月前相比，我們在哪裡看到了整體終端市場的重大轉變？我們是否見過某個特定區域？

Yes, Gokul, 3 months ago, we project that one of the platforms, the automotive platform was -- will increase this year, but now we're expecting it to decrease. So I think that is the one area that we saw was different.

是的，Gokul，三個月前，我們預計其中一個平台，即汽車平台，今年將會增加，但現在我們預計它會減少。所以我認為這是我們看到的一個不同的領域。

Okay. My second question, just wanted to understand gross margin trends. We talked about 3 to 4 percentage point gross margin dilution from N3 ramp in second half of the year. Should we think that the N3-related gross margin drag is more severe than usual for what we have seen for leading-edge nodes in the past? Or is it largely similar to what we have seen in N5 or N7?

好的。我的第二個問題，只是想了解毛利率趨勢。我們談到下半年 N3 產能擴張將導致毛利率稀釋 3 到 4 個百分點。我們是否應該認為，與我們過去所看到的前沿節點相比，N3 相關的毛利率拖累比平時更嚴重？或者說它與我們在 N5 或 N7 中看到的有很大相似之處嗎？

And when we go to N2, do you think that this will kind of be the similar pattern? Or do you think that the gross margin dilution will be lower when we go to like future process nodes given that N3 seems to be, at least compared to previous cycle, seems to be dragging a little bit more compared to like N5 or N7 in the past few years?

當我們進入 N2 時，您認為這會是類似的模式嗎？或者您是否認為，當我們進入未來的工藝節點時，毛利率稀釋會更低，因為 N3 似乎至少與上一個週期相比，與 N5 或 N7 相比似乎拖得更多一些過去幾年？

Okay. Thank you, Gokul. So let me summarize your second question, basically, is on gross margin. Gokul notes that N3, as Wendell said, will dilute our margin by 3 to 4 points, percentage points in the second half. So his question is, it seems that N3, the gross margin dilution or drag is more severe than past nodes such as N5 and N7. Is that the case? And also, of course, with N2 upcoming, will we face a similar pattern? Or what is the margin profile for N2? Which I think Wendell can address, yes.

好的。謝謝你，戈庫爾。所以讓我總結一下你的第二個問題，基本上是關於毛利率的。 Gokul 指出，正如 Wendell 所說，N3 將在下半年將我們的優勢縮小 3 到 4 個百分點。所以他的問題是，看起來N3，毛利率稀釋或拖累比N5和N7等過去的節點更嚴重。是這樣嗎？當然，隨著 N2 的到來，我們會面臨類似的模式嗎？或是 N2 的保證金概況是多少？我認為溫德爾可以解決這個問題，是的。

Yes, Gokul, it is true that N3 is taking longer time to reach the corporate margin than the other nodes like N5 or N7. N5 or N7 before, it was like 8 to 10 quarters to reach the corporate. But for N3, we think it will take about 10 to 12 quarters. And this is probably because N3 process complexity has increased, and also our corporate average gross margin also increased during the period.

是的，Gokul，確實，N3 比 N5 或 N7 等其他節點需要更長的時間才能達到公司利潤。之前的 N5 或 N7，需要 8 到 10 個季度才能到達公司。但對於 N3，我們認為大約需要 10 到 12 個季度。這可能是因為N3製程複雜性增加了，而且我們公司的平均毛利率也在此期間增加了。

But another reason is that we set the pricing of N3 very early, several years ahead of production. However, we experienced a lot of cost inflation pressures in the following years. So as a result, N3 will take a longer time than N5 and N7 to reach the corporate average gross margin. For N2, based on what we can see so far is that we are doing a better job in cost and selling our value, and we expect N2 to have a better margin profile than N3.

但另一個原因是我們很早就制定了 N3 的定價，比生產提前了幾年。然而，在接下來的幾年裡，我們經歷了巨大的成本通膨壓力。因此，N3將比N5和N7需要更長的時間才能達到企業平均毛利率。對於 N2，根據我們目前所看到的情況，我們在成本和銷售價值方面做得更好，我們預計 N2 的利潤率會比 N3 更好。

The next one to ask a question, Brett Simpson, Arete.

下一位提問者是 Brett Simpson，Arete。

I had a question on the AI returns at TSMC. So I think it's clear that AI is producing a large profit pool at your customers. And the HBM is also driving super-normal returns for memory players. So my question is, does TSMC believe they're getting their fair share of the returns in the AI value chain today? And is there scope for TSMC to raise pricing for AI chips in the future?

我對台積電的人工智慧回報有疑問。因此，我認為很明顯，人工智慧正在為您的客戶帶來巨大的利潤池。 HBM 也為記憶體玩家帶來了超常的回報。所以我的問題是，台積電是否相信他們今天在人工智慧價值鏈中獲得了公平的回報？台積電未來AI晶片定價還有空間嗎？

Okay. Thank you, Brett. So Brett's first question is looking at the AI-related demand. He notes that AI customers are earning very good returns, HBM and other components as well. So his question is that whether TSMC, do we feel we are earning or capturing our fair value or right value of the returns? And I think on pricing, how would we price for AI basically, I think. Brett, sorry, that's your question, right?

好的。謝謝你，布雷特。所以布雷特的第一個問題是看看與人工智慧相關的需求。他指出，AI 客戶獲得了非常好的回報，HBM 和其他組件也是如此。所以他的問題是，台積電是否認為我們正在賺取或獲得我們的公允價值或正確價值的回報？我認為在定價方面，我們基本上會如何為人工智慧定價。布雷特，抱歉，這是你的問題，對吧？

That's it.

就是這樣。

Well, let me answer the questions. We always say that we want to sell our value, but it is a continuous process for TSMC. And let me tell you that we are working on it. We are happy that our customers are doing well. And if customers do well, TSMC does well. So let me summarize it. We are working on it, and we hopefully that we can sell our value.

好吧，讓我回答一下問題。我們總是說要出售我們的價值，但對於台積電來說這是一個持續的過程。讓我告訴你，我們正在努力解決這個問題。我們很高興我們的客戶表現良好。如果客戶做得好，台積電就會做得好。那麼讓我總結一下。我們正在努力，希望能夠出售我們的價值。

Right. For my follow-up question, I wanted -- yes, that's great, Jeff. And my follow-up question was on the lighting edge nodes at TSMC. And looking at Q1 sales for 12-nanometer and above, your overall revenues for these nodes collectively was off 20% year-on-year, and it's only 35% of your overall sales. Can you maybe share with us whether you see a recovery at all this year at these nodes? And we're seeing a lot of government support in building out new fabs in the U.S. and China around lighting edge nodes. So are you concerned at all about structural overcapacity for the older nodes to the cycle?

正確的。對於我的後續問題，我想——是的，那太好了，傑夫。我的後續問題是關於台積電的照明邊緣節點。從第一季 12 奈米及以上節點的銷售額來看，這些節點的總收入年減了 20%，僅佔總銷售額的 35%。您能否與我們分享今年這些節點是否會出現復甦？我們看到政府大力支持在美國和中國圍繞照明邊緣節點建造新工廠。那麼，您是否擔心週期中較舊節點的結構性產能過剩？

Okay. Thank you, Brett. So Brett's second question is more on the mature nodes. He notes that the demand for our mature nodes, 12-nanometer and older, are down year-over-year. So he wonders sort of what is the outlook for the recovery of mature nodes in the second half of the year. I think that's the first part of his question.

好的。謝謝你，布雷特。所以Brett的第二個問題更多的是關於成熟節點。他指出，對我們成熟節點（12 奈米及以上）的需求逐年下降。所以他想知道下半年成熟節點的恢復前景如何。我認為這是他問題的第一部分。

Okay. Brett, let me answer this question. First, the mature node demand remains sluggish because of a site. As we just announced it, the whole semiconductor industry is gradually recovering, but not fast enough. So we expect to gradually improve in the second half of 2024.

好的。布雷特，讓我來回答這個問題。首先，成熟節點因站址問題需求依然低迷。正如我們剛剛宣布的那樣，整個半導體產業正在逐步復甦，但速度還不夠快。所以我們預計2024年下半年會逐步改善。

As you mentioned that you -- do we have a concern on the overcapacity because of some of the companies, they continue to build a lot of mature node capacity. For us, actually, our strategy at a mature node is work closely with our strategic customers to develop specialty technology solution to meet their requirement. And we create [an appreciated] and long-lasting value to customers. So we have less exposed to this possible overcapacity environment. And we believe that our utilization and profitability on mature node can be well protected.

正如您所提到的，我們是否擔心一些公司的產能過剩，他們繼續建立大量成熟的節點產能。對我們來說，實際上，我們在成熟節點的策略是與我們的策略客戶緊密合作，開發專業技術解決方案來滿足他們的需求。我們為客戶創造[受讚賞的]且持久的價值。因此，我們較少受到這種可能的產能過剩環境的影響。我們相信我們在成熟節點上的利用率和獲利能力可以得到很好的保障。

Does that answer your second question, Brett?

這能回答你的第二個問題嗎，布雷特？

That's clear.

很清楚。

Next one, we have Randy Abrams, UBS.

下一位是瑞銀集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

I wanted to ask a question, following up on C. C.'s comment about a ramp profile similar to 3-nanometer for 2-nanometer. Could you clarify for the timing of the meaningful revenue ramp for that node? Is the expectation that would be starting early 2026 and ramping up steep through 2026? Or any potential to pull that in?

我想問一個問題，跟進 C.C. 關於 2 奈米的斜坡輪廓類似於 3 奈米的評論。您能否澄清該節點有意義的收入成長的時間？這項預期是否會從 2026 年初開始，並在 2026 年之前急劇上升？或是有沒有潛力把它拉進來？

And then just a second question on that is you noted that tape-outs are higher. Would there be potential with higher tape-outs in 3 and 5 for either steeper or it ramps to be larger than the prior nodes once underway or looking out a couple of years?

接下來的第二個問題是，您注意到流片率更高。一旦開始或展望幾年，3 號和 5 號節點是否有可能實現更高的流片，或比之前的節點更陡峭或斜坡更大？

Okay. So Randy's first question is around 2-nanometer. So his first question is to C. C. with that we said that the N2 ramp profile will be similar to N3. We also said, of course, the production begins in 2025. So his question partly is, when do we expect to see the revenue contribution, meaningful revenue contribution from N2? And then also that with N2, the tape-outs being higher, what is the multiyear opportunity or contribution from N2 maybe in terms of the revenue as compared to N3 or other nodes?

好的。所以 Randy 的第一個問題是關於 2 奈米的。因此，他的第一個問題是向 C. C. 提出的，我們說 N2 斜坡剖面將與 N3 類似。我們也說，當然，生產將於 2025 年開始。然後，對於 N2，流片量更高，與 N3 或其他節點相比，N2 在收入方面的多年機會或貢獻是多少？

Randy, the N2's ramp profile we say is very similar to N3 because of, look at the cycle time, we start the N2 production in the second half of 2025, actually in the last quarter of 2025. And because of the cycle time and all the kind of back-end process, and so we expect the meaningful revenue will start from the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second quarter of 2026. That's what we mean that is the profile is very similar to N3.

蘭迪，我們說 N2 的斜坡曲線與 N3 非常相似，因為看看週期時間，我們在 2025 年下半年開始 N2 生產，實際上是在 2025 年最後一個季度。流程，因此我們預計有意義的收入將從2026 年第一季末或第二季初開始。

Now your second question is there have been a lot of engagement and the tape-out will be higher, and do we see a very steep kind of a production? Well, we do expect that, but let me say again, N2 is a very complicated work or a very complex technology node. So my customer, they also take a little bit longer time to prepare for the tape-out. So that's why they all engage with TSMC in the early stage. And -- but for their product ramp-up, they will have their own product road map and their own business consideration. However, we still say that N2 will be a very, very big node for TSMC.

現在你的第二個問題是，已經有很多參與，流片會更高，我們是否看到了一種非常陡峭的製作？嗯，我們確實希望如此，但是我再說一遍，N2 是一個非常複雜的工作或一個非常複雜的技術節點。所以我的客戶，他們也需要更長的時間來準備流片。所以這就是他們早期都跟台積電接觸的原因。而且，對於他們的產品升級，他們將有自己的產品路線圖和自己的業務考慮。但是，我們仍然說N2對於台積電來說將是一個非常非常大的節點。

Randy, does that answer your question?

蘭迪，這能回答你的問題嗎？

Okay. Great. No, that's helpful color. Yes. Yes, it does. No, helpful color. My second question is just relating to the upward expectations you gave for the AI accelerators. Curious how that ties to how you're looking at the CapEx, if you say that we're entering either higher growth or investment cycle, where capital intensity could need to rise up above that mid-30s range that you set or at least in absolute dollars from the $30 billion this year, we should start growing or thinking about CapEx at least growing with revenue.

好的。偉大的。不，這是有用的顏色。是的。是的，它確實。不，有用的顏色。我的第二個問題與您對人工智慧加速器的向上期望有關。很好奇這與您如何看待資本支出有何關係，如果您說我們正在進入更高的增長或投資週期，其中資本強度可能需要升至您設定的 30 多歲左右的範圍以上或至少在從今年300 億美元的絕對美元來看，我們應該開始成長或考慮資本支出至少與收入一起成長。

Okay. So Randy's second question is basically, I think, with such strong AI-related demand, what does this mean for our CapEx and capacity planning? And also, what does this mean for our capital intensity outlook?

好的。所以蘭迪的第二個問題基本上是，我認為，隨著人工智慧相關需求如此強勁，這對我們的資本支出和產能規劃意味著什麼？而且，這對我們的資本密集度前景意味著什麼？

Yes. Randy, for TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditure is always correlated with higher growth opportunity in the following years. We work with our customers closely, and our CapEx and capacity planning are always based on the long-term structural market demand profile that is underpinned by the multiyear megatrends. We always review our CapEx plan on an ongoing basis. And as a key enabler of AI, we will work with our customers closely to plan the appropriate level of capacity to support their needs.

是的。 Randy表示，對於台積電來說，較高的資本支出水準總是與未來幾年較高的成長機會有關。我們與客戶密切合作，我們的資本支出和產能規劃始終基於多年大趨勢支撐的長期結構性市場需求狀況。我們始終持續審查我們的資本支出計劃。作為人工智慧的關鍵推動者，我們將與客戶密切合作，規劃適當的容量水準來支援他們的需求。

And then in terms of the capital intensity and CapEx dollar outlook.

然後是資本密集度和資本支出美元前景。

Yes. The capital intensity, in the past few years, it was high as we invested heavily to meet the strong customer demand. Now the increase -- the rate of increase for the CapEx is leveling off. So this year and the next several years, we are expecting that the capital intensity is somewhere at the mid-30s level. But as I just said, if there are opportunities in the future years, then we will invest accordingly.

是的。資金密集度，過去幾年我們投入大量資金來滿足客戶的強烈需求。現在，資本支出的成長率正在趨於平穩。因此，今年和未來幾年，我們預計資本密集度在 30 多歲左右。但正如我剛才所說，如果未來幾年有機會，我們就會進行相應的投資。

Does that answer your second question, Randy?

這能回答你的第二個問題嗎，蘭迪？

If I could ask a quick follow-up. Yes, it does. Sorry, I'll ask a quick follow-up. Is this -- would this be viewed as a bit of a digestion year since you ramped a lot of the 3-nanometer spending in the past couple of years? So then as you kick off to -- like I mean, should we look at it at a lower -- or should we see this as kind of a normal in that trend?

如果我能要求快速跟進的話。是的，它確實。抱歉，我會要求快速跟進。自從過去幾年你們增加了大量 3 奈米支出以來，今年會被視為消化年嗎？那麼，當你開始時——就像我的意思是，我們應該以較低的角度看待它——還是我們應該將其視為該趨勢中的一種常態？

So I think Randy's question is with -- Randy, you're still asking about CapEx. So is that correct?

所以我認為蘭迪的問題是──蘭迪，你還在問資本支出。那麼這是正確的嗎？

Yes. Sorry, still on CapEx. If it's a CapEx digestion year, since you've ramped a lot of 3 spending already in the 2-nanometer still, a lot of that is still in front of us.

是的。抱歉，仍在資本支出。如果今年是資本支出消化年，那麼由於您已經在 2 奈米領域增加了大量 3 支出，因此其中許多支出仍然擺在我們面前。

Yes, Randy, I wouldn't call it a digestion year. I mean every year, we invest based on the forward-looking business opportunities, and we constantly review that. So this is what we're seeing in the future, and that's why we're -- the funds that we're investing in. So no, I wouldn't call it a digestion year. Okay?

是的，蘭迪，我不會稱之為消化年。我的意思是，每年我們都會根據前瞻性的商業機會進行投資，並且我們會不斷地對此進行審查。這就是我們未來看到的情況，這就是我們投資的基金的原因。好的？

Okay. Good.

好的。好的。

And next one to ask questions, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一位提問者是摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So my first question is about selling the value. I think another caller also addressed this topic, but I want to go a little bit deeper. Because given all the efforts you made, right, and also ongoing cost challenge made at the coming U.S. fab, electricity cost hike, I'm not sure if you can give investors kind of a range about a potential price adjustment or kind of the value you're going to sell to your customers.

所以我的第一個問題是關於出售價值。我認為另一個來電者也談到了這個話題，但我想更深入一點。因為考慮到您所做的所有努力，以及即將到來的美國晶圓廠持續面臨的成本挑戰，電力成本上漲，我不確定您是否可以向投資者提供有關潛在價格調整或價值的範圍你將把產品賣給你的客戶。

Based on our back testing, I think based on your revenue and shipments in 2022 and 2023, we calculate your price hike could be around 10% in 2022 and the price hike of 5% in 2023. So C. C., I'm not sure whether you are planning to hike price in this kind of a range or magnitude for 2025, so we can be comfortable you can achieve the 53% gross margin in 2025.

根據我們的回溯測試，我認為根據你們2022年和2023年的收入和出貨量，我們計算你們2022年的價格上漲可能在10%左右，2023年的價格上漲5%左右。確定是否您計劃在 2025 年以這種幅度或幅度提高價格，因此我們可以放心，您可以在 2025 年實現 53% 的毛利率。

Okay. So Charlie's first question is about TSMC's pricing strategy. He notes that TSMC, of course, makes a lot of efforts to deliver technology leadership and manufacturing excellence to our customers, but we also face a lot of cost challenges, whether from electricity price hikes or the higher cost of overseas fabs. So his question is, number one, I guess, what is our intention about pricing strategy to sell our value; and then, number two, he would like to know what percentage range, if any?

好的。所以查理的第一個問題是關於台積電的定價策略。他指出，台積電當然付出了很多努力，為客戶提供技術領先和卓越製造，但我們也面臨許多成本挑戰，無論是電價上漲還是海外晶圓廠成本上升。所以他的問題是，我想，第一，我們透過定價策略來出售我們的價值的意圖是什麼？然後，第二，他想知道百分比範圍是多少（如果有的話）？

Okay, Charlie, this is C. C. Wei. First, I would like to emphasize again this kind of a pricing strategy is very confidential and totally between TSMC and the customer. However, let me expand a little bit, we do encounter some kind of higher cost in the overseas or even recently, the inflation and the electricity. We expect our customers to share some of the higher cost with us, and we already started our discussion with our customers.

好的，查理，我是 C.C. Wei。首先，我想再次強調，這種定價策略是非常保密的，完全是台積電和客戶之間的事。然而，讓我擴大一點，我們確實在海外甚至最近遇到了某種更高的成本，通貨膨脹和電力。我們希望客戶與我們分擔一些較高的成本，我們已經開始與客戶進行討論。

And as I said, for the overseas fab, we want to share our value, which also includes the flexibility of [geopolitical] location or something like that. If my customer requests to be in some certain area, then definitely, TSMC and the customer had to share the incremental cost.

正如我所說，對於海外晶圓廠，我們希望分享我們的價值，其中還包括[地緣政治]位置的靈活性或類似的東西。如果我的客戶要求在某個特定領域，那麼台積電和客戶肯定必須分擔增加成本。

Charlie, did I answer your question?

查理，我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes, I think that answers my question. I think passing through some cost or all the cost to -- incremental cost to customers should be fair, especially you are creating lots of value to your customers.

是的，我想這回答了我的問題。我認為將部分成本或全部成本轉嫁給客戶的增量成本應該是公平的，特別是你正在為客戶創造大量價值。

And my second question is about AI. I know the -- your cost capacity has been very tight, very strategic. But I'm wondering how you're going to judge the demand and allocate the capacity to all the different type of AI semi customers. Because we're hearing your major customer is demanding for 2x capacity next year.

我的第二個問題是關於人工智慧的。我知道——你們的成本能力非常緊張，非常具有戰略意義。但我想知道你們將如何判斷需求並將產能分配給所有不同類型的人工智慧半客戶。因為我們聽說您的主要客戶明年需要 2 倍的容量。

So I'm wondering how you're going to allocate, so I mean, will you still reserve a certain percentage for some smaller or strategic customers no matter if it's ASIC or smaller GPU vendors? So what is the kind of benchmark you're going to allocate those capacity to customers? And are you okay with that if your major customers' demand cannot be fulfilled by you? Are you okay to give out or do some market share to some of your industry competitors?

所以我想知道你們將如何分配，所以我的意思是，你們還會為一些較小的或策略客戶保留一定的比例，無論是ASIC還是較小的GPU供應商？那麼，您將把這些容量分配給客戶的基準是什麼？如果你無法滿足主要客戶的需求，你能接受嗎？您可以向一些行業競爭對手贈送或分享一些市場份額嗎？

Okay. So Charlie's second question is around, I guess, basically, our advanced packaging and more specifically, CoWoS. And he, of course, notes that the CoWoS capacity, the demand is very strong today and also into 2025. So the capacity is very tight.

好的。所以查理的第二個問題基本上是圍繞著我們的先進封裝，更具體地說，是 CoWoS。當然，他指出 CoWoS 的產能、需求非常強勁，到 2025 年也是如此。

So his question is, how does TSMC decide on how to allocate the capacity to customers, where we have large customers, but will we reserve capacity to support smaller customers as well? And then lastly, would we be okay if customers want to use somebody else, so to speak? So several parts to this question.

那麼他的問題是，台積電如何決定如何將產能分配給客戶，我們有大客戶，但我們是否也會保留產能來支援小客戶？最後，可以這麼說，如果客戶想使用其他人，我們可以嗎？這個問題有幾個部分。

Charlie, let me say it again, the demand is very, very strong, and we have done our best where we put all the effort to increase the capacity. It's probably more than double this year as compared with last year. However, it's still not enough to meet the customers' demand, and we leverage our OSAT partners to complement of TSMC's capacity to fulfill our customers' need.

查理，讓我再說一遍，需求非常非常強烈，我們已經盡了最大努力來增加產能。與去年相比，今年可能增加一倍以上。然而，這仍然不足以滿足客戶的需求，我們利用我們的 OSAT 合作夥伴來補充台積電的能力，以滿足客戶的需求。

Still not enough, of course. But in my mind, my first priority is to make our customer to be successful, no matter which one. And of course, the long-term partners will have a better cooperation with TSMC in terms of technology and processing complexity, so much easier to be ramped up.

當然，還不夠。但在我看來，我的首要任務是讓我們的客戶成功，無論是哪一個。當然，長期合作夥伴在技術和加工複雜度方面會與台積電有更好的合作，因此更容易提升。

However, no matter what, let me say again, the demand is very high, extremely high. And we do our best to increase the capacity to alleviate the shortage. We also leverage the OSAT partners. We want to make sure that all our customers get supported, probably not enough this year; but for next year, we try, we try very hard.

但是，不管怎樣，我再說一遍，要求很高，極高。我們盡最大努力增加產能以緩解短缺。我們也利用 OSAT 合作夥伴。我們希望確保所有客戶都能獲得支持，但今年可能還不夠；但明年，我們會努力，我們會非常努力。

And you mentioned about giving up some market share, that's not my consideration. My consideration is to help our customers to be successful in their market.

而且你提到放棄一些市場份額，這不是我的考慮。我的考慮是幫助我們的客戶在他們的市場上取得成功。

I see. So since your major customers said there's no room for other type of AI computing chips, but it seems like TSMC is happy to see some similar customers, right? So is that the right interpretation about your comments?

我懂了。既然你們的主要客戶說沒有其他類型的人工智慧運算晶片的空間，但台積電似乎很高興看到一些類似的客戶，對嗎？那麼，這是對您的評論的正確解釋嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. C. C. said all customers, yes. Thank you, Charlie.

是的。 C.C. 說所有顧客都可以。謝謝你，查理。

Next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一位提問者是來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

I think, again, the question is coming back to AI still. I think currently, most of the AI accelerators are mostly in 5-nanometers, which is N minus 1 comparing to a smartphone for now. So when do we expect them to catch up or surplus in terms of technology node? Do we see them to be the technology driver in 2-nanometers or above?

我認為，問題仍然回到了人工智慧。我認為目前大多數的AI加速器大多是5奈米，與目前的智慧型手機相比是N-1。那麼我們預計他們什麼時候能夠在技術節點上趕上或超越呢？我們是否認為它們是 2 奈米或以上奈米技術的驅動力？

Okay. So Bruce's first question is about, again, looking at AI accelerators. He notes that in his view, they're currently at 5-nanometer now. His question is, do we expect them to catch up? How do we see AI accelerators and also maybe HPC as a whole being the driver or adopter of TSMC's most leading-edge or advanced technology node? Is that correct, Bruce?

好的。因此，布魯斯的第一個問題再次是關於人工智慧加速器。他指出，在他看來，目前的技術水準是 5 奈米。他的問題是，我們期望他們能趕上嗎？我們如何看待人工智慧加速器以及整個 HPC 成為台積電最前沿或先進技術節點的驅動者或採用者？這是正確的嗎，布魯斯？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Okay. Bruce, let me answer the questions. Yes, your observation is right. Today, all the AI accelerators, most of them are in the 5- or 4-nanometer technology. But my customers are working with TSMC for the next node. Even for the next, next node, they have to move fast because, as I said, the power consumption has to be considered in the AI data center. So the energy-efficient is fairly important. So our 3-nanometer is much better than the 5-nanometer. And again, it will be improved in the 2-nanometer. So all I can say is all my customers are working on this kind of a trend from 4-nanometer to 3 to 2. Bruce?

好的。布魯斯，讓我回答問題。是的，你的觀察是正確的。如今，所有的人工智慧加速器大部分都採用 5 或 4 奈米技術。但我的客戶正在與台積電合作開發下一個節點。即使是下一個節點，他們也必須快速移動，因為正如我所說，人工智慧資料中心必須考慮功耗。所以節能是相當重要的。所以我們的3奈米比5奈米好很多。再次，它會在2奈米上得到改進。所以我只能說我所有的客戶都在致力於這種從 4 奈米到 3 奈米到 2 奈米的趨勢。

But if that is the case, do we see -- yes, if that is the case, do we see a bigger revenue in the first 2 years of the 2-nanometers? Because in the past, it's only smartphone. But in 2-nanometer, it would be both smartphone and HPC customers.

但如果是這樣的話，我們是否會看到——是的，如果是這樣的話，我們是否會在 2 奈米技術的頭兩年看到更大的收入？因為在過去，它只是智慧型手機。但在 2 奈米技術中，它將同時是智慧型手機和 HPC 客戶。

So Bruce is asking then, well, then with such strong AI-related demand, should we see more revenue from 2-nanometer in its first 2 years compared to past nodes?

因此，Bruce 會問，既然人工智慧相關需求如此強勁，我們是否應該在前兩年看到 2 個奈米節點的收入比過去的節點更多？

Yes, Bruce, as we said, we believe that it will be -- our advanced technologies will be long-lasting nodes and larger nodes, N2, then N3 or N5. So the dollar value will certainly be larger.

是的，布魯斯，正如我們所說，我們相信，我們的先進技術將是持久的節點和更大的節點，N2，然後是 N3 或 N5。所以美元價值一定會更大。

I think, Bruce, we're locating at these opportunities in a multiyear period. So as Wendell and C. C. just said, certainly, with the demand that we're seeing, we do expect N2 revenue contribution to be even larger than N3, just like 3 has a larger contribution or larger node than 5, et cetera, et cetera.

布魯斯，我認為我們將在多年的時間內尋找這些機會。正如Wendell 和C.C. 剛才所說，當然，根據我們所看到的需求，我們確實預計N2 的收入貢獻會比N3 更大，就像3 比5 具有更大的貢獻或更大的節點，等等，等等。

I see. So my second question is for dividends. We do see very strong free cash flow in the first quarter. And the capital intensity, as Wendell mentioned, is stabilizing. And we even started to pay a huge amount of return in tax. So do we -- can we turn more aggressive in terms of dividends? The current dividend level is much, much lower than 70% of free cash flow in the back-of-envelope calculation. So can we expect to see more dividends in the coming quarters?

我懂了。所以我的第二個問題是股利。我們確實看到第一季的自由現金流非常強勁。正如溫德爾所說，資本密集度正在趨於穩定。我們甚至開始繳納巨額的退稅。那麼，我們能否在股利方面變得更加激進？根據粗略計算，目前的股息水準遠低於自由現金流的 70%。那麼我們可以期望在未來幾季看到更多股息嗎？

Okay. Thank you, Bruce. So Bruce's second question is on the cash dividend policy. He notes that in the first quarter, we're generating very, very strong free cash flow. As we have said, the capital intensity is beginning to stabilize and also that we are paying a very high retained earnings tax. So his question, I think, is, what is the outlook? Can we pay more dividends in the coming quarters? Or what should investors expect?

好的。謝謝你，布魯斯。那麼Bruce的第二個問題是關於現金分紅政策的。他指出，在第一季度，我們產生了非常非常強勁的自由現金流。正如我們所說，資本密集度開始穩定，而且我們正在繳納非常高的留存收益稅。所以我認為他的問題是，前景如何？我們可以在未來幾季支付更多股息嗎？或者投資人應該期待什麼？

Yes. Bruce, the -- our dividend policy is, in principle, to pay 70% of our free cash flow in a year as cash dividends. So I would not just look at quarterly cash, free cash flow to make a judgment. But indeed, as we said before, now that we're harvesting the heavy investment that we did in the past few years, we expect our dividend policy to switch to steadily increasing from the sustainable in the past few years.

是的。布魯斯，我們的股利政策原則上是每年支付 70% 的自由現金流作為現金股利。所以我不會只看季度現金、自由現金流來做判斷。但事實上，正如我們之前所說，現在我們正在收穫過去幾年的大量投資，我們預計我們的股息政策將從過去幾年的可持續轉向穩步增長。

Next one, we have Laura Chen from Citi.

下一位是花旗銀行的 Laura Chen。

My question is about the edge AI. We know that C. C. mentioned that the smartphone and the PC recovery is still probably prolonged, yet we are also seeing that the AI PC or AI smartphone is getting quite topical. So I'm just wondering, what's TSMC's view on this kind of edge AI device take off maybe later or 2025? And what's the implication to TSMC? That's my first question.

我的問題是關於邊緣人工智慧。我們知道C.C.提到智慧型手機和PC的復甦可能仍需要很長時間，但我們也看到AI PC或AI智慧型手機變得相當熱門。所以我只是想知道，台積電對這種邊緣人工智慧設備可能在稍後或 2025 年起飛有何看法？這對台積電有何影響？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. Thank you, Laura. So Laura's first question is on AI, but more specifically edge or what we call on-device AI. She notes that there's AI being added to smartphones and also AI for PCs. It's quite topical. So she wants to know how do we see this trend, more importantly, what is the implication to TSMC. Is that correct, Laura?

好的。謝謝你，勞拉。因此，勞拉的第一個問題是關於人工智慧，但更具體地說是邊緣或我們所說的設備上人工智慧。她指出，智慧型手機中加入了人工智慧，個人電腦也增加了人工智慧。很有話題性。所以她想知道我們如何看待這個趨勢，更重要的是，對台積電意味著什麼。這是正確的嗎，勞拉？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, Laura. Let me answer the question. The edge AI or the on-device AI, the first order of magnitude is the die size. We saw without the AI -- with the AI for neuroprocessor inside. The die size will be increased, okay? That's the first we observed. And it's happening.

好吧，勞拉。讓我來回答這個問題。邊緣人工智慧或設備上人工智慧，第一個數量級是晶片尺寸。我們看到沒有人工智慧——裡面有神經處理器的人工智慧。模具尺寸會增加，好嗎？這是我們觀察到的第一個現象。它正在發生。

And then for the future, I would think that replacement cycle for smartphone or for those kind of a PC will be accelerated a little bit in the future, at least. It's not happening yet, but we do expect that it will happen soon. And all in all, I would say that on-device AI will be very positive for TSMC because we capture the larger share of the market.

然後對於未來，我認為智慧型手機或此類個人電腦的更換週期至少在未來會加快一點。這還沒有發生，但我們確實預計它很快就會發生。總而言之，我想說，設備上的人工智慧對於台積電來說將是非常積極的，因為我們佔據了更大的市場份額。

Did I answer the question, Laura?

我回答了這個問題嗎，蘿拉？

Yes. And so in that case -- yes, very helpful. So in that case, can we expect that our demand -- and see, because now it's still mostly on the smartphone or mobile. So can we expect that N3's revenue contribution in second half or next year will be bigger, say, like a 20% plus in the second half of this year?

是的。所以在這種情況下——是的，非常有幫助。因此，在這種情況下，我們能否預期我們的需求——看看吧，因為現在它仍然主要在智慧型手機或行動裝置上。那麼我們是否可以預期N3下半年或明年的營收貢獻會更大，例如今年下半年20%以上？

Okay. So well, Laura's follow-on to the first question is then should we expect that N3 demand in the second half or into 2025. Sorry, I didn't catch the exact percentage, but a large percentage or significantly larger than it is today. Is that correct, Laura?

好的。那麼，勞拉對第一個問題的後續問題是，我們是否應該預計下半年或 2025 年 N3 的需求。這是正確的嗎，勞拉？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Certainly, as I said, we expect to happen at a larger die size. As I said, we already observed that. And for the replacement cycle to be accelerated, it will happen, but I cannot give you a definite number because of -- it's too early to predict in 2025. But it's an upward trend, no doubt about it, and we expect we have a good business.

好的。當然，正如我所說，我們希望在更大的晶片尺寸上實現這一點。正如我所說，我們已經觀察到了這一點。對於加速的更換週期，這是會發生的，但我無法給你一個明確的數字，因為現在預測 2025 年還為時過早。工作。

Just to follow up on C. C.'s comments. Last time, we also said that this year, N3 revenue will be more than triple than the revenue in 2023.

只是為了跟進 C.C. 的評論。上次我們也說過，今年N3的營收將比2023年的營收成長三倍以上。

Okay. That's very clear. My second question is about, again, advanced packaging. We know that TSMC is working on the 3DIC for many years. So I'm just wondering that what's the current progress? Will we expect to see more meaningful take-off with our N2 ramp-up for like a high-computing PC? And between different kind of technology, like hybrid bonding or TSV, what's TSMC's major consideration?

好的。這非常清楚。我的第二個問題又是關於先進封裝。我們知道台積電在3DIC上已經研究了很多年。所以我想知道目前進展如何？隨著我們的 N2 升級，我們是否會期望看到像高運算 PC 那樣的更有意義的起飛？在混合鍵結或TSV等不同技術之間，台積電主要考慮什麼？

Okay. So Laura's, I guess, second question, although -- yes, fine. Second question is about our advanced packaging solutions and 3DIC solutions. She is wondering, what is the outlook or take-up for the demand for the next several years? And she also would like us to comment on the consideration of TSV versus hybrid bonding and such.

好的。我想，勞拉的第二個問題是——是的，很好。第二個問題是關於我們的先進封裝解決方案和3DIC解決方案。她想知道未來幾年的需求前景或成長情況如何？她還希望我們評論 TSV 與混合鍵合等的考慮。

Wow, you asked a very technical question about the TSV and the hybrid bonding. It's all together. The 3DIC's packaging technology is very complicated, and our customers start to adopt it. Not a big volume yet, but we expect it to start to grow from this year.

哇，您問了一個關於 TSV 和混合鍵合的非常技術性的問題。一切都在一起。 3DIC的封裝技術非常複雜，我們的客戶開始採用它。目前數量還不是很大，但我們預計從今年開始會開始成長。

How big it will be? It's hard to say, but I think it is a trend. Whether it is a micro-bumping or it's a hybrid connection, that it depends on the customer's product requirement.

會有多大？很難說，但我認為這是一個趨勢。是微凸塊連接還是混合連接，這取決於客戶的產品要求。

Okay, Laura?

好吧，勞拉？

So starting from this year, we'll see -- yes, yes, just very quickly. So starting from later this year, we will see that 3DIC products from our customers, that's the current progress?

所以從今年開始，我們會看到——是的，是的，很快。那麼從今年稍後開始，我們將會看到我們客戶的3DIC產品，這就是目前的進展嗎？

So Laura is asking, will we start to see 3DIC products from our customers when?

所以 Laura 問，我們什麼時候會開始看到顧客提供 3DIC 產品？

Now. I'm sorry, I just said that the customers start to adopt it from now, and you would expect that product in the market soon. All right?

現在。抱歉，我只是說客戶從現在開始採用它，你會期望該產品很快就會上市。好的？

Thank you, Laura. Okay. In the interest of time, maybe we'll take questions from the last 2 participants on the call. Thank you. Operator?

謝謝你，勞拉。好的。由於時間關係，我們或許會回答電話會議最後兩位參與者的問題。謝謝。操作員？

Next one, we have Rolf Bulk from New Street Research.

下一位是來自 New Street Research 的 Rolf Bulk。

Earlier on the call, you mentioned the possibility of converting so much your N5 capacity to N3. But what I was wondering, considering the strong demand for AI chips and a recovery in smartphones, is there a scenario in which you would consider similar conversions from some of your older nodes such as N7 given that utilization and revenues there are still well below peak levels?

在電話會議的早些時候，您提到了將大量 N5 容量轉換為 N3 的可能性。但我想知道的是，考慮到對 AI 晶片的強勁需求和智慧型手機的復甦，考慮到利用率和收入仍遠低於峰值，您是否會考慮從 N7 等一些舊節點進行類似的轉換水平？

Okay. So Rolf's first question is about our tool commonality and conversion. He notes that we have already said we are converting some of the capacity -- using some of the N5 tools to support the strong multiyear demand for N3 for AI-related and such. His question is that given our 7-nanometer is still underutilized, will we also consider converting 7-nanometer tools to support more leading-edge stronger demand?

好的。所以Rolf的第一個問題是關於我們工具的通用性和轉換。他指出，我們已經說過，我們正在轉換一些能力——使用一些 N5 工具來支援人工智慧相關等領域對 N3 的多年強勁需求。他的問題是，鑑於我們的7奈米仍然沒有充分利用，我們是否也會考慮轉換7奈米工具來支援更領先的更強勁的需求？

Well, let me answer this question. We can convert one technology node capacity to the next one is because of our GI's physical advantage, meaning, let me give you one example, our 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer are adjacent to each other, the fabs, and they are all connected. So it's much easier for TSMC to convert from 5 to 3. And that doesn't mean that every node can do the same. That's one.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。我們可以把一種技術節點的能力轉換到下一個技術節點，因為我們GI的物理優勢，也就是說，我舉個例子，我們的3奈米和5奈米是相鄰的晶圓廠，它們都是相連的。因此，台積電從 5 個節點轉換為 3 個節點要容易得多。這是一個。

And your question about the N7 converted to N5, presumably. No, because we expect the N7 in the next couple of years, it will pick up, the demand will pick up again. And you want repeat -- probably repeat the same kind of experience we have in 28-nanometer. So today, no, we don't have any solid plan to convert the N7 into N5.

你關於 N7 轉換為 N5 的問題，大概是這樣。不，因為我們預計 N7 在未來幾年內會回升，需求會再回升。你想要重複——可能重複我們在 28 奈米技術中擁有的相同經驗。所以今天，不，我們沒有任何將 N7 轉換為 N5 的可靠計劃。

Okay. Rolf, does that answer your first question?

好的。羅爾夫，這回答了你的第一個問題嗎？

Yes. An unrelated follow-up?

是的。不相關的後續行動？

Sure.

當然。

Yes, it does. And unrelated follow-up, it's a follow-up to Laura's question, actually. On SoIC, given that the technology is now being adopted more broadly, do you see beginning of interest of your smartphone customer base to also adopt the technology? Could you comment on the likely time line of adoption of SoIC in smartphones?

是的，它確實。不相關的後續行動，實際上是對勞拉問題的後續行動。在 SoIC 方面，鑑於該技術現在得到更廣泛的採用，您是否認為您的智慧型手機客戶群也開始有興趣採用該技術？您能否評論一下智慧型手機中採用 SoIC 的可能時間表？

Okay. So Rolf's second question is basically going back to SoIC adoption. His question really is pretty straightforward. Do we see a time line or can we give a time line for adoption of SoIC by smartphone applications?

好的。因此，Rolf 的第二個問題基本上回到了 SoIC 的採用。他的問題確實很簡單。我們是否看到了智慧型手機應用程式採用 SoIC 的時間表，或者能否給出時間表？

Well, let me answer the question. Just HPC product is the first one. HPC customer is the first one to adopt, that is a 3DIC or SoIC's advanced packaging technology. And the other area, let's wait, wait and see. I cannot make any comment. We are working on it. Okay?

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。只是HPC產品是第一個。 HPC客戶是第一個採用的，即3DIC或SoIC的先進封裝技術。而其他區域，讓我們拭目以待。我無法發表任何評論。我們正在做這件事。好的？

Okay, Rolf?

好吧，羅爾夫？

Yes.

是的。

The last one to ask question, Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

最後一個提問的是 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Two from my end. You had a very nice upside to revenue expectation for the first half of '24, but has kept the year-end unchanged. Is that a reflection of that slow recovery that you were highlighting? Or would you prefer to wait to have more visibility before updating 2024 target?

從我這邊算兩個。你們對 24 年上半年的收入預期有很大的上升，但年末保持不變。這是否反映了您所強調的緩慢復甦？或者您是否願意等待獲得更多可見性後再更新 2024 年目標？

Okay. So Mehdi's first question is about our revenue outlook and guidance. His question is saying we have a nice upside to our revenue in the first half of this year, but we have kept the full year guidance in to grow low to mid-20s. So is that because we are more cautious on the second half? Or is it because we will see how things go? But I'm not sure if you mean by upside to the first half, Mehdi. You're saying, of course, our first quarter, as C. C. said, was slightly ahead of our guidance in U.S. dollar term, but very minutely. But -- yes?

好的。因此，邁赫迪的第一個問題是關於我們的收入前景和指導。他的問題是，今年上半年我們的收入有很大的上升空間，但我們將全年指導保持在 20 多歲左右的低成長水平。這是因為我們下半年比較謹慎嗎？還是因為我們會看看事情會如何發展？但我不確定你所說的上半場的優勢是否是好的，邁赫迪。當然，你是說，正如 C.C. 所說，我們的第一季略高於我們以美元計算的指導，但非常細微。但是，是的？

Yes. Mehdi, our guidance for the quarterly profile did not change. We always said that quarter-over-quarter, there will be growth. And also, the full year guidance will stay the same. So I don't think there is a so-called upside, as you just said.

是的。邁赫迪，我們對季度概況的指導沒有改變。我們總是說，季度環比將會成長。此外，全年指導將保持不變。所以我認為不存在你剛才所說的所謂的好處。

To the first half, yes.

到上半場，是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And regarding the investment in U.S., especially for 2-nanometer, does that include advanced packaging? Or would advanced packaging be mostly concentrated in Taiwan region?

好的。那麼在美國的投資，特別是2奈米的投資，是否包含先進封裝？還是先進封裝主要集中在台灣地區？

Okay. So Mehdi's second question is that, of course, that we have announced to build 3 fabs in the U.S., including 2-nanometer, given the strong AI-related demand. So his question is then what about the advanced packaging side, will we also build advanced packaging in Arizona? Or yes, what is our plan?

好的。所以Mehdi的第二個問題是，當然，鑑於人工智慧相關的強勁需求，我們已經宣佈在美國建造3座晶圓廠，其中包括2奈米晶圓廠。所以他的問題是，那麼先進封裝方面呢？或者是的，我們的計劃是什麼？

Well, let me answer this question. It is always customer's decision for where the back-end service are done for their product. So in Arizona, we are happy to see that Amkor's recent announcement to build an advanced packaging facility that's very close to our AZ fab. Actually, we are working with Amkor and try to support all our customers in AZ and for their demand, for their need.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。在何處為其產品提供後端服務始終由客戶決定。因此，在亞利桑那州，我們很高興看到 Amkor 最近宣佈在距離我們的亞利桑那州晶圓廠非常近的地方建造一座先進的封裝設施。事實上，我們正​​在與 Amkor 合作，努力為 AZ 的所有客戶提供支持，滿足他們的需求。

Okay, Mehdi, does that address your second question?

好的，Mehdi，這解決了你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. All right. Everyone, this concludes our question-and-answer session. Again, we do apologize for the technical difficulties. If you have anything unclear or need to follow up, please contact TSMC's IR, and we'll be more than happy to help.

好的。偉大的。好的。大家好，我們的問答環節到此結束。再次，我們對技術困難表示歉意。如果您有任何不清楚或需要跟進的情況，請聯絡台積電的 IR，我們將非常樂意為您提供協助。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now, and the transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，會議重播將在 30 分鐘內提供，會議記錄將在 24 小時後提供，兩者均可通過台積電網站 www.tsmc 獲取.com。

So thank you again for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay safe and healthy, and we hope to see you again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都繼續保持安全和健康，並希望在下個季度再次見到您。再見，祝你有美好的一天。