台積電 ADR (TSM) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

（外文）大家下午好，歡迎參加台積電2023年第二季度財報電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

台積電將通過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 通過現場音頻網絡直播舉辦我們的財報電話會議，您還可以在該網站下載財報發布材料。如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路將處於僅監聽模式。

The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2023 followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2023. Afterwards, Mr. Huang; TSMC's CEO, Dr. C. C. Wei; and TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open the line for a question-and-answer session.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德爾先生將總結我們2023年第二季度的運營情況，然後是我們對2023年第三季度的指導。台積電首席執行官魏志成博士；台積電董事長劉馬克博士將共同發表公司的關鍵信息。然後我們將開通問答環節。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在我想將電話轉給台積電首席財務官黃文德爾先生，以獲取運營摘要和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter of 2023. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter.

謝謝你，傑夫。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從 2023 年第二季度的財務亮點開始。之後，我將提供第三季度的指導。

Second quarter revenue decreased 5.5% sequentially in NT or 6.2% in U.S. dollars as our second quarter business was impacted by the overall global economic conditions, which dampened the end market demand and led to customers' ongoing inventory adjustment. Gross margin decreased 2.2 percentage points sequentially to 54.1%, mainly reflecting lower capacity utilization and higher electricity cost partially offset by more stringent cost control and a more favorable foreign exchange rate.

第二季度收入按新台幣計算環比下降 5.5%，按美元計算環比下降 6.2%，因為我們第二季度業務受到全球整體經濟狀況的影響，抑制了終端市場需求並導致客戶持續調整庫存。毛利率環比下降2.2個百分點至54.1%，主要反映產能利用率下降和電力成本上升，但部分被更嚴格的成本控制和更有利的匯率所抵消。

Despite the industry's cyclical downturn, we continued to invest in R&D to support our N3 and N2 development. Thus, operating margin was 42%, down 3.5 percentage points sequentially. Overall, our first quarter EPS was TWD 7.01 and ROE was 23.2%.

儘管行業出現週期性低迷，我們仍繼續投資研發以支持 N3 和 N2 的開發。因此，營業利潤率為 42%，比上一季度下降 3.5 個百分點。總體而言，我們第一季度 EPS 為新台幣 7.01，ROE 為 23.2%。

Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 30% of our wafer revenue in the second quarter, while 7-nanometer accounted for 23%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 53% of wafer revenue.

現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。第二季度，5納米工藝技術貢獻了我們晶圓收入的30%，而7納米工藝技術則佔23%。 7 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 53%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC decreased 5% quarter-over-quarter to account for 44% of our second quarter revenue. Smartphone decreased 9% to account for 33%. IoT decreased 11% to account for 8%. Automotive increased 3% to account for 8%. And DCE increased 25% to account for 3%.

接下來是平台的收入貢獻。 HPC 環比下降 5%，佔第二季度收入的 44%。智能手機下降 9%，佔 33%。 IoT 下降 11%，佔 8%。汽車行業增長了 3%，達到 8%。大商所佔比上升25%至3%。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.5 trillion or USD 48 billion.

繼續看資產負債表。第二季度結束時，我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 1.5 萬億，即 480 億美元。

On the liabilities side, current liabilities decreased by TWD 62 billion, mainly due to the net decrease of TWD 87 billion in income tax payable as we paid TWD 120 billion for 2022 income tax, offset by TWD 33 billion accrued tax payables for the second quarter.

負債方面，流動負債減少 620 億新台幣，主要是由於我們繳納 2022 年所得稅 1,200 億新台幣，應交所得稅淨減少 870 億新台幣，被第二季度應計稅金 330 億新台幣所抵消。

Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD 53 billion mainly as we raised TWD 41 billion in corporate bonds.

長期有息債務增加530億元，主要是募集公司債410億元。

On financial ratios. Accounts receivable turnover days decreased 2 days to 32 days, while days of inventory increased 3 days to 99 days, primarily due to N3 ramp during the quarter.

關於財務比率。應收賬款周轉天數減少 2 天至 32 天，庫存天數增加 3 天至 99 天，這主要是由於本季度 N3 的增加。

Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 167 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 251 billion in CapEx, distributed TWD 71 billion for third quarter 2022 cash dividend and raised TWD 41 billion from corporate bond issuances. Overall, our cash balance decreased by TWD 109 billion to TWD 1.3 trillion at the end of the quarter.

關於現金流和資本支出。第二季度，我們從運營中產生了約 1,670 億新台幣的現金，資本支出為 2,510 億新台幣，派發了 2022 年第三季度現金股息 710 億新台幣，並通過發行公司債券籌集了 410 億新台幣。總體而言，季度末我們的現金餘額減少了 1090 億新台幣，至 1.3 萬億新台幣。

Free cash flow was negative TWD 83 billion during the quarter as operating cash flow was more than offset by capital expenditures, partly due to the income tax payment of TWD 120 billion. In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures totaled $8.17 billion.

本季度自由現金流為負 830 億新台幣，因為運營現金流被資本支出所抵消，部分原因是繳納了 1,200 億新台幣的所得稅。以美元計算，我們第二季度的資本支出總計 81.7 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between USD 16.7 billion and USD 17.5 billion, which represents a 9.1% sequential increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30.8, gross margin is expected to be between 51.5% and 53.5%, operating margin to be between 38% and 40%. This concludes my financial presentation.

我已經完成了財務摘要。現在讓我們轉向當前季度的指導。根據當前的業務前景，我們預計第三季度收入將在 167 億美元至 175 億美元之間，環比中值增長 9.1%。根據1美元兌30.8新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在51.5%至53.5%之間，營業利潤率在38%至40%之間。我的財務報告到此結束。

Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our second quarter '23 and third quarter '23 profitability. Compared to first quarter, our second quarter gross margin decreased by 220 basis points sequentially to 54.1%, primarily due to a lower capacity utilization. Compared to our second quarter guidance, our actual gross margin slightly exceeded the high end of the range provided 3 months ago mainly due to more stringent cost control efforts and a slightly more favorable foreign exchange rate.

現在讓我談談我們的關鍵信息。我將首先對我們 23 年第二季度和 23 年第三季度的盈利能力發表一些評論。與第一季度相比，第二季度毛利率環比下降 220 個基點至 54.1%，主要是由於產能利用率較低。與我們第二季度的指導相比，我們的實際毛利率略高於三個月前提供的範圍上限，這主要是由於更嚴格的成本控制措施和稍微有利的匯率。

We have just guided our third quarter gross margin to decline by 1.6 percentage points to 52.5% at the midpoint, primarily as the higher level of capacity utilization rate is offset by 2 to 3 percentage points margin dilution from the initial ramp-up of our 3-nanometer technology.

我們剛剛指導第三季度毛利率中點下降 1.6 個百分點至 52.5%，主要是因為較高的產能利用率被我們 3 季度初始增長所帶來的 2 至 3 個百分點的利潤稀釋所抵消。 -納米技術。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect the continued steep ramp-up of our 3-nanometer to dilute our fourth quarter gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points.

展望第四季度，我們預計 3 納米工藝的持續大幅增長將導致我們第四季度的毛利率下降約 3 至 4 個百分點。

In 2023, our gross margin faces challenges from lower capacity utilization due to semiconductor cyclicality, the ramp-up of N3, overseas fab expansion and inflationary costs including higher utility costs in Taiwan. To manage our profitability in 2023, we will work diligently on internal cost improvement efforts while continuing to sell our value. While we face near-term challenges, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.

2023年，我們的毛利率面臨半導體週期性、N3產能增加、海外晶圓廠擴張以及通脹成本（包括台灣公用事業成本上升）導致的產能利用率下降的挑戰。為了管理 2023 年的盈利能力，我們將努力改善內部成本，同時繼續銷售我們的價值。儘管我們面臨近期挑戰，但我們仍然預測長期毛利率可以達到 53% 甚至更高。

Next, let me talk about our 2023 capital budget and depreciation. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years. Given the near-term uncertainties, we continue to manage our business prudently and tighten up our capital spending where appropriate. We now expect our 2023 capital budget to be towards the lower end of our range of between USD 32 billion and USD 36 billion. Our depreciation expense is now expected to increase by mid-20s percent year-over-year in 2023, mainly as we ramp our 3-nanometer technologies.

接下來我說一下我們2023年的資本預算和折舊。每年，我們的資本支出都用於預測未來幾年的增長。鑑於近期的不確定性，我們將繼續審慎管理業務，並酌情收緊資本支出。我們現在預計 2023 年的資本預算將接近 320 億美元至 360 億美元範圍的下限。目前，我們的折舊費用預計到 2023 年將同比增長 20% 左右，這主要是因為我們不斷提升 3 納米技術。

Despite near-term inventory cycle, our commitment to support customers' structural growth remains unchanged, and our disciplined CapEx and capacity planning remains based on the long-term market demand profile. We will continue to work closely with our customers to plan our long-term capacity and invest in leading-edge, specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support their growth while delivering profitable growth to our shareholders.

儘管存在近期庫存週期，但我們支持客戶結構性增長的承諾保持不變，我們嚴格的資本支出和產能規劃仍然基於長期市場需求狀況。我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，規劃我們的長期產能，並投資於領先、專業和先進的封裝技術，以支持他們的增長，同時為我們的股東帶來利潤增長。

Now let me make a few comments on our cash dividend distribution policy. The objectives of TSMC's capital management are to fund the capital -- the company's growth organically, generate good profitability, preserve financial flexibility and distribute a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend to shareholders. As a result of our rigorous capital management, in May, TSMC Board of Directors approved the distribution of TWD 3 per share cash dividend for the first quarter of 2023, up from TWD 2.75 previously. This will become the new minimum quarterly dividend level going forward. First quarter '23 cash dividend will be distributed in October 2023.

下面我就我們的現金分紅政策談幾點看法。台積電資本管理的目標是為公司的有機增長提供資金，產生良好的盈利能力，保持財務靈活性，並向股東分配可持續且穩定增長的現金股息。經過嚴格的資本管理，台積電董事會於5月批准派發2023年第一季度每股現金股息3新台幣，高於此前的2.75新台幣。這將成為未來新的最低季度股息水平。 '23第一季度現金股息將於2023年10月派發。

For 2023, TSMC's shareholders will receive a total of TWD 11.25 per share dividend and at least TWD 12 per share cash dividend for 2024. Going forward, as our capital intensity begins to decline in the next several years, the focus of our cash dividend policy is expected to shift from a sustainable to a steadily increasing cash dividend per share in the next few years.

2023年，台積電股東將獲得每股11.25新台幣的股息，2024年每股至少12新台幣的現金股息。展望未來，隨著我們的資本密集度在未來幾年開始下降，我們現金股息政策的重點預計未來幾年每股現金股息將從可持續轉向穩步增長。

Now let me turn the microphone over to C. C.

現在讓我把麥克風交給 C. C.

Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand and inventory. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of USD 15.7 billion, in line with our guidance in U.S. dollar terms. Our business in the second quarter was impacted by the overall global economic conditions, which dampened the end market demand and customers' ongoing inventory adjustment.

謝謝你，溫德爾。大家下午好。首先，讓我從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。我們第二季度的收入為 157 億美元，符合我們以美元計算的指引。我們第二季度的業務受到全球整體經濟狀況的影響，抑制了終端市場需求和客戶持續的庫存調整。

Moving into third quarter 2023, while we have recently observed an increase in AI-related demand, it is not enough to offset the overall cyclicality of our business. We expect our business in the third quarter to be supported by the strong ramp of our 3-nanometer technologies, partially offset by customers' continued inventory adjustment.

進入 2023 年第三季度，雖然我們最近觀察到人工智能相關需求有所增加，但這不足以抵消我們業務的整體週期性。我們預計第三季度的業務將受到 3 納米技術強勁增長的支持，部分被客戶持續的庫存調整所抵消。

In the last quarterly conference, we said we expect fabless semiconductor inventory to rebalance to a healthier level exiting the third quarter. This statement continues to hold true. However, due to persistent weaker overall macroeconomic conditions, slower-than-expected demand recovery in China and overall softer end market demand conditions, customers are more cautious and intend to further control their inventory into 4Q '23.

在上一季度會議上，我們表示預計無晶圓廠半導體庫存將在第三季度重新平衡至更健康的水平。這一說法仍然有效。然而，由於整體宏觀經濟狀況持續疲軟、中國需求復蘇慢於預期以及終端市場需求狀況整體疲軟，客戶更加謹慎，並打算在 23 年第四季度進一步控制庫存。

Thus while we maintain our forecast for the 2023 semiconductor market, excluding memory, to decline mid-single digit year-over-year, we now expect the foundry industry to decline mid-teens and our full year 2023 revenue to decline around 10% in U.S. dollar term. With such inventory control, we also forecast the fabless semiconductor inventory to exit 4Q '23 at a healthier and lower level as compared to our expectation 3 months ago.

因此，雖然我們維持對 2023 年半導體市場（不包括存儲器）同比下降中個位數的預測，但我們現在預計代工行業將出現中雙位數下降，我們 2023 年全年收入將下降 10% 左右。美元術語。通過這種庫存控制，我們還預測無晶圓廠半導體庫存將於 23 年第四季度退出，與 3 個月前的預期相比，處於更健康、更低的水平。

Next, let me talk about HPC and TSMC's long-term growth outlook. As we have said before, the massive structural increase in demand for computation underpinned by the industry megatrend of 5G and HPC continues to drive greater need for performance and energy-efficient computing, which require use of leading-edge technologies. These megatrends are expected to fill TSMC's long-term growth. Even with a more challenging 2023, our revenue remains well on track to grow between 15% and 20% CAGR over the next several years in U.S. dollar terms, which is a target we communicated back in January 2022 investor conference.

接下來我談談HPC和台積電的長期增長前景。正如我們之前所說，在5G和HPC行業大趨勢的支撐下，計算需求的大規模結構性增長繼續推動對性能和節能計算的更大需求，而這需要使用領先的技術。這些大趨勢預計將填補台積電的長期增長。即使 2023 年更具挑戰性，我們的收入仍有望在未來幾年以美元計算的複合年增長率增長 15% 至 20%，這是我們在 2022 年 1 月投資者會議上傳達的目標。

The recent increase in AI-related demand is directionally positive for TSMC. Generative AI requires higher computing power and interconnected bandwidth, which drives increasing semiconductor content. Whether using CPUs, GPUs or AI accelerator and related ASIC for AI and machine learning, the commonality is that it requires use of leading-edge technology and a strong foundry design ecosystem. These are all TSMC's strengths.

最近人工智能相關需求的增加對台積電具有方向性利好。生成式人工智能需要更高的計算能力和互連帶寬，這推動了半導體內容的增加。無論是使用CPU、GPU還是AI加速器及相關ASIC進行AI和機器學習，其共同點是需要利用領先的技術和強大的代工設計生態系統。這些都是台積電的強項。

Today, server AI processor demand, which we define as CPUs, GPUs and AI accelerators that are performing training and inference functions accounts for approximately 6% of TSMC's total revenue. We forecasted this to grow at close to 50% CAGR in the next 5 years and increase to low teens percent of our revenue.

如今，服務器 AI 處理器需求（我們定義為執行訓練和推理功能的 CPU、GPU 和 AI 加速器）約佔台積電總收入的 6%。我們預測未來 5 年復合年增長率將接近 50%，占我們收入的比例將增至百分之十幾。

The insatiable need for energy-efficient computation is starting from data centers and we expect it will proliferate to edge and end devices over time, which will further long term -- which will drive further long-term opportunities. We have already embedded a certain assumption for AI demand into our long-term CapEx and growth forecast. Our HPC platform is expected to be the main engine and the largest incremental contributor to TSMC's long-term growth in the next several years.

對節能計算的永不滿足的需求從數據中心開始，我們預計隨著時間的推移，它將擴散到邊緣和終端設備，這將進一步長期發展，這將帶來更多的長期機會。我們已經將人工智能需求的特定假設納入了我們的長期資本支出和增長預測中。我們的HPC平台預計將成為台積電未來幾年長期增長的主要引擎和最大增量貢獻者。

While the quantification of the total addressable opportunity is still ongoing, generative AI and large language model only reinforce the already strong conviction we have in the structural megatrend to drive TSMC's long-term growth, and we will closely monitor the development for further potential upside.

雖然對總可尋址機會的量化仍在進行中，但生成式人工智能和大型語言模型只會增強我們對推動台積電長期增長的結構性大趨勢的堅定信念，我們將密切關注其發展，以尋求進一步的潛在上漲空間。

Now let me talk about our N3 and N3E status. Our 3-nanometer technology is the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology. N3 is already in volume production with good yield. We are seeing robust demand for N3 and we expect a strong ramp of N3 in the second half of this year, supported by both HPC and smartphone applications. N3 is expected to continue to contribute mid-single-digit percentage of our total wafer revenue in 2023.

現在我來說一下我們的N3和N3E狀態。我們的 3 納米技術是 PPA 和晶體管技術中最先進的半導體技術。 N3已投入量產，良率良好。我們看到對 N3 的強勁需求，並預計在 HPC 和智能手機應用程序的支持下，N3 在今年下半年將出現強勁增長。預計 2023 年 N3 將繼續貢獻我們晶圓總收入中個位數的百分比。

N3E further extends our N3 family with enhanced performance, power and yield and provides complete platform support for both HPC and smartphone applications. N3E has passed qualification and achieved performance and yield target and will start volume production in the fourth quarter of this year.

N3E 通過增強的性能、功耗和產量進一步擴展了我們的 N3 系列，並為 HPC 和智能手機應用程序提供完整的平台支持。 N3E已通過資質認證，達到性能和良率目標，將於今年第四季度開始量產。

With our continuous enhancement of 3-nanometer process technologies, we expect strong multi-yield demand from our customers and are confident that our 3-nanometer family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

隨著我們對3納米工藝技術的不斷增強，我們預計客戶將產生強勁的多良率需求，並有信心我們的3納米系列將成為台積電另一個大型且持久的節點。

Finally, I'll talk about our N2 status. Our N2 technology development is progressing well and on track for volume production in 2025. Our N2 will adapt nanosheet transistor structure to provide our customer with the best performance, cost and technology maturity. Our nanosheet technology has demonstrated excellent power efficiency, and our N2 will deliver full node performance and power benefits to address the increasing need for energy-efficient computing.

最後，我要談談我們的N2狀態。我們的 N2 技術開發進展順利，預計將於 2025 年實現量產。我們的 N2 將採用納米片晶體管結構，為我們的客戶提供最佳的性能、成本和技術成熟度。我們的納米片技術已展現出卓越的功效，而我們的 N2 將提供完整的節點性能和功效優勢，以滿足日益增長的節能計算需求。

As part of N2 technology platform, we also developed N2 with backside power rail solution, which is best suited for HPC applications. Backside power rail will provide 10% to 12% additional speed gain and 10% to 15% logic density boost on top of the baseline technology. We are targeting backside power rail to be available in the second half of 2025 to customers with production in 2026.

作為N2技術平台的一部分，我們還開發了具有背面電源軌解決方案的N2，該解決方案最適合HPC應用。背面電源軌將在基準技術的基礎上提供 10% 至 12% 的額外速度增益和 10% 至 15% 的邏輯密度提升。我們的目標是在 2025 年下半年向客戶提供背面電源軌，並在 2026 年投入生產。

We are observing a high level of customer interest and engagement in N2 from both HPC and smartphone applications. Our 2-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in both density and energy efficiency when it is introduced and to further extend our technology leadership right into the future.

我們從 HPC 和智能手機應用程序中觀察到客戶對 N2 的興趣和參與度很高。我們的 2 納米技術一旦推出，無論在密度還是能源效率方面都將成為業界最先進的半導體技術，並將進一步將我們的技術領先地位擴展到未來。

This concludes my prepared remarks, and now let me turn the microphone over to Mark.

我準備好的發言到此結束，現在讓我將麥克風交給馬克。

Thank you, C. C., and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I want to talk about TSMC's global manufacturing footprint status update. TSMC's mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global logic IC industry for years to come. Our strategy is to expand our global manufacturing footprint, to increase customer trust and to expand our future growth potential and to reach for more global talents. Our overseas decisions are based on our customers' needs and the necessary level of government support. That is to maximize the value of our shareholders and to fulfill our fiduciary duty.

謝謝你，C.C.，大家下午好。今天，我想談談台積電的全球製造足跡狀況更新。台積電的使命是在未來幾年成為全球邏輯 IC 行業值得信賴的技術和產能提供商。我們的戰略是擴大我們的全球製造足跡，增加客戶信任，擴大我們未來的增長潛力，並吸引更多的全球人才。我們的海外決策基於客戶的需求和必要的政府支持水平。那就是最大化我們股東的價值並履行我們的信託義務。

In Arizona, we are building a first fab to provide U.S. most advanced semiconductor technology in mass production to support the needs for U.S. semiconductor infrastructure. Our fab in Arizona started construction in April 2021 with an aggressive schedule. We are now entering a critical phase of handling and installing the most advanced and dedicated equipment.

在亞利桑那州，我們正在建設第一座晶圓廠，以大規模生產提供美國最先進的半導體技術，以滿足美國半導體基礎設施的需求。我們位於亞利桑那州的工廠於 2021 年 4 月開始建設，工期緊張。我們現在正進入處理和安裝最先進、專用設備的關鍵階段。

However, we are encountering certain challenges as there is an insufficient amount of skilled workers with those specialized expertise required for equipment installation in a semiconductor-grade facility. While we are working on to improve the situation, including sending experienced technicians from Taiwan to train the local skill workers for a short period of time, we expect the production schedule of N4 process technology to be pushed out to 2025.

然而，我們遇到了某些挑戰，因為具備半導體級設施中設備安裝所需專業知識的技術工人數量不足。雖然我們正在努力改善這種情況，包括從台灣派遣經驗豐富的技術人員來短期培訓當地技術工人，但我們預計N4工藝技術的生產計劃將推遲到2025年。

In Japan, we are building a specialty technology factory, which will utilize 12, 16 and 22, 28 process technologies. Volume production is on track for late 2024.

在日本，我們正在建設一家專業技術工廠，將採用12、16和22、28工藝技術。預計將於 2024 年底實現量產。

In Europe, we are engaging with customers and partners to evaluate building a specialty fab in Germany focusing on automotive-specific technologies based on the demand from our customers and the level of government support.

在歐洲，我們正在與客戶和合作夥伴合作，根據客戶的需求和政府的支持水平，評估在德國建立一家專注於汽車特定技術的專業工廠。

In China, we are expanding 28-nanometer in Nanjing as we planned to support our customers in China, and we continue to follow all rules and regulations fully.

在中國，我們正在南京擴展 28 納米，因為我們計劃支持中國的客戶，並且我們將繼續完全遵守所有規則和規定。

At the same time, we continue to invest in Taiwan and to expand our capacity to support our customers' growth.

與此同時，我們繼續在台灣投資並擴大產能，以支持客戶的增長。

From a cost perspective, the initial cost of overseas fab are higher than TSMC's fabs in Taiwan due to: one, the smaller fab scale; two, higher costs throughout the supply chain; and three, the early stage of semiconductor ecosystem on those overseas sites as compared to a matured ecosystem in Taiwan. In our recent meetings with senior government officials in the U.S., Japan and Europe, we discussed our plans to expand our global manufacturing footprint to them. We also emphasized one of our major responsibility is to manage and minimize the cost gap to maximize return for our shareholders.

從成本角度來看，海外晶圓廠的初始成本高於台積電在台灣的晶圓廠，原因是：一是晶圓廠規模較小；二是晶圓廠規模較小。二是整個供應鏈成本較高；第三，與台灣成熟的生態系統相比，這些海外工廠的半導體生態系統還處於早期階段。在最近與美國、日本和歐洲高級政府官員舉行的會議中，我們討論了向他們擴大全球製造足蹟的計劃。我們還強調，我們的主要責任之一是管理和最小化成本差距，以最大限度地提高股東的回報。

Those discussions went very well. All sides understand the critical and integral role TSMC plays in the semiconductor industry, and we appreciate all the governments' ongoing support in working with TSMC to help narrow down the cost gap. We will continue to work closely with all the governments to secure their further support.

這些討論進行得很順利。各方都了解台積電在半導體行業中發揮的關鍵和不可或缺的作用，我們感謝各國政府持續支持與台積電合作，幫助縮小成本差距。我們將繼續與各國​​政府密切合作，以獲得他們的進一步支持。

Our pricing will also remain strategic to reflect our value, which includes the value of geographic flexibility. At the same time, we will leverage our fundamental competitive advantage of manufacturing technology leadership, large volume and economies of scale to continuously drive our cost down.

我們的定價也將保持戰略性，以反映我們的價值，其中包括地域靈活性的價值。同時，我們將利用製造技術領先、產量大、規模經濟的根本競爭優勢，不斷降低成本。

By taking such actions, TSMC will have the ability to absorb the higher cost of overseas fab while remaining the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturer, no matter where we operate. Thus, even as we expand our capacity overseas, TSMC's long-term gross margin of 53% and higher and sustainable ROE of greater than 25% is achievable, and we will continue to maximize the value for our shareholders.

通過採取這些行動，台積電將有能力吸收海外晶圓廠的更高成本，同時保持最高效和最具成本效益的製造商，無論我們在哪裡運營。因此，即使我們在海外擴大產能，台積電的長期毛利率53%和更高且可持續的ROE超過25%是可以實現的，我們將繼續為股東創造最大價值。

This concludes our key messages. Thank you for your attention.

我們的關鍵信息到此結束。感謝您的關注。

Thank you, Chairman. This concludes our prepared statements.

謝謝主席。我們準備好的發言到此結束。

(Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session.

（操作員說明） 現在讓我們開始問答環節。

The first one to ask questions is Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

第一個提問的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Thanks for a lot of the clarity on the AI-related exposure. My first question is on the AI front. A lot of TSMC's customers have been talking about capacity shortage and having to kind of queue up for capacity for AI accelerators, including GPUs and ASICs.

感謝您對人工智能相關曝光的大量澄清。我的第一個問題是關於人工智能方面的。台積電的許多客戶一直在談論產能短缺，不得不排隊等待 AI 加速器（包括 GPU 和 ASIC）的產能。

Could TSMC talk a little bit about what TSMC is doing on the capacity side, especially on the advanced packaging, but also on other areas? And when do you expect to get back to some degree of demand-and-supply balance for these AI accelerators? Is it going to be only sometime next year? Or you think it could happen quicker based on what you see on demand from your customers and the capacity plan?

台積電能否談談台積電在產能方面，特別是先進封裝方面所做的事情，還有其他領域？您預計這些人工智能加速器何時能恢復某種程度的供需平衡？難道只有明年的某個時候嗎？或者您認為根據您所看到的客戶需求和容量計劃，這可能會更快發生？

Okay, Gokul. Thank you. Let me try to -- please allow me to summarize your first question. So first question from Gokul is that he notes that we are -- customers are seeing strong demand from AI-related, but they're facing capacity tightness or shortage.

好吧，戈庫爾。謝謝。讓我嘗試——請允許我總結一下你的第一個問題。因此，Gokul 提出的第一個問題是，他指出，客戶看到了人工智能相關的強勁需求，但他們面臨著產能緊張或短缺的問題。

So his question is what are we doing in terms of the capacity side, maybe both in terms of the advanced packaging as well as the logic? And then when do we see the demand-supply imbalance returning to a better, healthier balance level? Is it sometime next year? Is that correct, roughly, Gokul?

所以他的問題是我們在容量方面正在做什麼，也許是在先進封裝和邏輯方面？那麼我們什麼時候才能看到供需失衡恢復到更好、更健康的平衡水平呢？是明年的某個時候嗎？粗略地說，這是正確的嗎，戈庫爾？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Gokul, this is C. C. Wei. Let me answer your question. For the AI, right now, we see very strong demand, yes. For the front-end part, we don't have any problem to support. But for the back end, the advanced packaging side, especially for the CoWoS, we do have some very tight capacity to -- very hard to fulfill 100% of what customers needed. So we are working with customers for the short term to help them to fulfill the demand, but we are increasing our capacity as quickly as possible. And we expect these tightening somewhat be released in next year, probably towards the end of next year. But in between, we're still working closely with our customers to support their growth.

好的。戈庫爾，我是 C.C. Wei。讓我回答你的問題。對於人工智能，目前我們看到了非常強勁的需求，是的。對於前端部分，我們支持沒有任何問題。但對於後端、先進封裝方面，尤其是 CoWoS，我們的產能確實非常緊張，很難 100% 滿足客戶的需求。因此，我們正在與客戶進行短期合作，以幫助他們滿足需求，但我們正在盡快提高我們的產能。我們預計這些緊縮政策將在明年有所緩解，可能是在明年底。但在此期間，我們仍然與客戶密切合作，支持他們的發展。

Okay. And C. C., maybe one follow-up. Could you let us know what kind of capacity expansion is like -- how much capacity you're expanding on the CoWoS side? Like any kind of what exists -- or kind of capacity you are adding?

好的。還有 C. C.，也許是後續行動。您能否告訴我們什麼樣的擴容？CoWoS 方面擴容了多少？就像任何現有的東西——或者你正在添加的某種容量？

Okay. So Gokul, just in additional to the first question, how much capacity are we going to increase in terms of CoWoS?

好的。那麼 Gokul，除了第一個問題之外，我們將在 CoWoS 方面增加多少容量？

Let me give you -- I will not give you the exact number, but let me give you a roughly probably 2x of the capacity will be added. Okay, Gokul?

讓我給你——我不會給你確切的數字，但讓我給你一個大概會增加 2 倍的容量。好吧，戈庫爾？

Gokul, are you there? If not, operator, maybe we move on to the next participant. Gokul, are you there? Okay. I think there was disconnected. All right.

戈庫爾，你在嗎？如果沒有，操作員，也許我們會轉向下一個參與者。戈庫爾，你在嗎？好的。我認為是斷線了。好的。

Next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一位提問者是來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

I still want to know about like TSMC maintained a 15% to 20% revenue CAGR when we cut this year's revenue to minus 10%. But if -- that's all -- if we use that 15% revenue CAGR to 2026, that implies about like 25-plus percent revenue CAGR for the coming 2 years, which means that the overall semi growth is going to increase like a lot for the next 2, 3 years. And you just mentioned that the AI only accounts for 6% with low teens potentially. That is not big enough to get back to the trend.

我仍然想知道，當我們將今年的收入削減至-10%時，台積電保持了15%至20%的收入複合年增長率。但如果——僅此而已——如果我們使用到 2026 年 15% 的收入複合年增長率，這意味著未來 2 年的收入複合年增長率約為 25% 以上，這意味著未來 2、3 年半導體的整體增長將大幅增長。您剛才提到，人工智能僅佔 6％，且潛在潛力較低。這還不足以回到趨勢。

So what is the underlying growth you have for the global semi in the coming years? And what are the key assumptions for the growth for each segment?

那麼未來幾年全球半導體的潛在增長是多少？每個細分市場增長的關鍵假設是什麼？

Okay. Bruce, let me try to summarize your first question. So Bruce's first question is on our long-term growth CAGR, which we have said is to be between 15% to 20% from '21 to '26 CAGR period.

好的。布魯斯，讓我嘗試總結一下你的第一個問題。因此，布魯斯的第一個問題是關於我們的長期復合年增長率，我們說過從 21 年到 26 年復合年增長率將在 15% 到 20% 之間。

So Bruce's question, this year, C. C. just said we will decline around 10%. In his calculation, I think he's saying, well, this implies you should grow 25% the next several years, which, of course, this is a CAGR, but nonetheless. And so Bruce's question is that, therefore, if that's the type of growth, then shouldn't that imply a much higher growth level for the overall semiconductor excluding memory industry? I think that is your question, Bruce. Am I correct?

所以布魯斯的問題，今年，C.C.只是說我們會下降10%左右。在他的計算中，我認為他是在說，好吧，這意味著未來幾年你應該增長 25%，當然，這是複合年增長率，但儘管如此。因此，布魯斯的問題是，如果這就是增長類型，那麼這是否意味著不包括存儲器行業的整個半導體的增長水平要高得多？我想這是你的問題，布魯斯。我對麼？

Yes. What are the key assumptions for this quarter?

是的。本季度的主要假設是什麼？

Okay. Let me handle this question. The -- your rationale is correct. However, some of the factors may not be totally included. For one thing, in your model that the customer's gross margin, 60% or plus, I don't think that will represent the average customer's gross margin, maybe some specific ones.

好的。讓我來解答這個問題。 - 你的理由是正確的。然而，有些因素可能沒有完全包括在內。一方面，在你的模型中，客戶的毛利率是 60% 或以上，我認為這並不能代表普通客戶的毛利率，也許是一些特定的毛利率。

However, the other one is the market share. The market share factor, you assume the constant. That is not -- one thing that could be different than in your formula.

然而，另一個是市場份額。市場份額因素，您假設為常數。這不是——可能與你的公式中不同的一件事。

So the semiconductor growth right now, we are forecasting 4% to 5%. It may increase, but definitely, as you said, it won't increase to 10%. But those longer-term semiconductor excluding memory growth is still yet to be evaluated. Did I answer your question?

所以目前半導體的增長，我們預測為 4% 到 5%。可能會增加，但肯定像你說的，不會增加到10%。但那些不包括內存在內的長期半導體增長仍有待評估。我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. The reason I do that is I'm assuming that you have like dominant market share in advanced node and also that the growth is mostly coming from advanced node, which your customers' gross margin is supposed to be higher. So I think that the gap is wide enough. That's what I'm wondering, right, whether I missed anything, which might be big enough to move the needle that some investments that the management might -- can give us some color.

是的。我這樣做的原因是我假設您在高級節點中擁有主導市場份額，並且增長主要來自高級節點，您的客戶的毛利率應該更高。所以我認為差距已經足夠大了。這就是我想知道的，對吧，我是否錯過了任何東西，這些東西可能足夠大，足以推動管理層的一些投資——可以給我們一些色彩。

I don't -- this is a factor. As far as the market share value, you might not totally included all the factors. That's my perspective. But I cannot dig into the numerical comparison at this point. What I mean, the market share is not just the advanced leading-edge technologies, but also the share of the outsourcing.

我不認為——這是一個因素。就市場份額價值而言，您可能沒有完全考慮所有因素。這就是我的觀點。但目前我無法深入探討數字比較。我的意思是，市場份額不僅僅是先進前沿技術的份額，還有外包的份額。

So maybe, Bruce, if I summarize again, TSMC's growth is driven by both the underlying structural megatrends but also by our technology leadership and differentiation. So our CAGR is a combination of those 2 factors.

因此，布魯斯，如果我再次總結一下，台積電的增長可能既受到潛在的結構性大趨勢的推動，也受到我們的技術領先和差異化的推動。因此，我們的複合年增長率是這兩個因素的結合。

I see. Yes. My next question is regarding to the guidance changes. The previous guidance for the full year was low to mid-single digit, now it's about like 10% decline. So the gap is like 5% of the total revenue, which is like quite sizable in terms of the revenue with that TWD 3 billion, TWD 4 billion highly concentrated in the second half or the fourth quarter. Can you give us like what are the changes in terms of this shortfall? What are the weakness (inaudible)?

我懂了。是的。我的下一個問題是關於指導方針的變化。之前的全年指引為低至中個位數，現在約為 10% 的下降。所以差距大概是總營收的5%左右，從營收來看，這個數字相當大了，30億台幣、40億台幣高度集中在下半年或者第四季度。您能給我們介紹一下這種短缺有哪些變化嗎？弱點是什麼（聽不清）？

Okay. So Bruce's second question is looking at our 2023 full year guidance. He noticed that last time we had said low to mid-single-digit decline. This time, we have guided to around 10%. So his question is the delta of this seems to be all -- a lot of it also in the fourth quarter. So what -- is there any particular segment or market that is driving this? And what are the factors behind this? Is that correct, Bruce?

好的。 Bruce 的第二個問題是看看我們的 2023 年全年指引。他注意到上次我們說過低至中個位數的下降。這次我們指導到10%左右。所以他的問題是，這似乎就是全部——其中很多也發生在第四季度。那麼，是否有任何特定的細分市場或市場在推動這一趨勢？而這背後的因素又是什麼呢？這是正確的嗎，布魯斯？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Bruce, let me answer the question. Yes, we did see something different. The first, the macro is weaker than what we thought. Three months ago, we were probably more optimistic, but now it's not. Also that is -- for example, China economy's recovery is actually also weaker than what we thought. And so the end market demand actually did not grow as we expected.

好的。布魯斯，讓我回答這個問題。是的，我們確實看到了一些不同的東西。首先，宏觀經濟比我們想像的要弱。三個月前，我們可能比較樂觀，但現在情況並非如此。還有就是——比如中國經濟的複蘇實際上也比我們想像的要弱。所以終端市場需求實際上並沒有像我們預期的那樣增長。

So put all together, even we have a very good AI processor demand, it's still not enough to offset all those kinds of macro impact. So now we expect that the whole year will become minus 10%. That's what we thought.

因此，總而言之，即使我們有非常好的人工智能處理器需求，它仍然不足以抵消所有這些宏觀影響。所以現在我們預計全年將變為-10%。這就是我們的想法。

And in terms of by particular segment or is there a particular market?

就特定細分市場而言，或者是否存在特定市場？

It's almost -- well, thank you. You are asking me the question? It's almost an impact...

差不多了——好吧，謝謝。你在問我這個問題嗎？差一點就影響了...

Yes. He understands my question.

是的。他明白我的問題。

Yes. It's overall market segment is being impacted because it's a combination of the macroeconomics.

是的。它的整體細分市場正在受到影響，因為它是宏觀經濟的結合。

So can we conclude that other than AI, almost every [location] will see some weakness in the second half?

那麼我們是否可以得出結論，除了人工智能之外，幾乎所有[地點]下半年都會出現一些疲軟的情況？

You got it.

你說對了。

The next one to ask question is Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

下一位提問的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Gokul, you're back, okay.

戈庫爾，你回來了，好吧。

Sorry about that. So next question, just wanted to ask about TSMC management's view on the current inventory cycle. It looks like this cycle is much -- taking much longer to get through the down cycle compared to '19 and 2015.

對於那個很抱歉。那麼下一個問題，只是想問一下台積電管理層對當前庫存週期的看法。與 19 年和 2015 年相比，這個週期似乎需要更長的時間才能度過下行週期。

When do you think we kind of bottom out? And do you feel that the recovery in next year is going to be a strong recovery? Or you think it's going to be a more gradual recovery? What are the kind of plans that you are putting in place as we think about next year's recovery once inventory situation normalizes?

你認為我們什麼時候會觸底反彈？您認為明年的複蘇會是強勁復甦嗎？或者您認為這將是一個更加漸進的複蘇？當我們考慮明年庫存情況正常化後的複蘇時，你們正在製定什麼樣的計劃？

Okay. So Gokul's second question is about the inventory correction cycle. He notes this cycle seems to be taking much longer to get through as compared to 2019 or -- and 2015.

好的。所以戈庫爾的第二個問題是關於庫存修正週期的。他指出，與 2019 年或 2015 年相比，這個週期似乎需要更長的時間才能度過。

So his second question is when do we think this cycle can bottom out? What will 2024, next year, look like? Do we expect a strong recovery? And what factors are we looking at? Is that correct, Gokul?

所以他的第二個問題是我們認為這個週期什麼時候可以觸底？明年 2024 年會是什麼樣子？我們預期經濟會強勁復甦嗎？我們正在考慮哪些因素？這是正確的嗎，戈庫爾？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Gokul, this is a good question. Let me answer it in a short 1 sentence: it's is all about the macro. I mean I just say the macroeconomy is not so -- has become weaker than we thought. In fact, higher inflation and interest rate impact end demand in all market segments in every region in the world. As we said, under such situation, our customers are more cautious in their inventory control in the second half of this year.

好的。戈庫爾，這是個好問題。讓我用簡短的一句話來回答這個問題：這都是關於宏觀的。我的意思是，我只是說宏觀經濟並非如此——已經變得比我們想像的要弱。事實上，較高的通脹和利率影響了世界各個地區所有細分市場的最終需求。正如我們所說，在這種情況下，我們的客戶在今年下半年的庫存控制上更加謹慎。

So while we expect the fabless semiconductor industry their inventory to be cleaner and healthier existing this year, but we're much closer to the seasonal level. But our expectation for them was continue to manage their inventory. And 2024, it is still dependent on the macro situation. Gokul?

因此，雖然我們預計無晶圓廠半導體行業今年的庫存將更加清潔和健康，但我們更接近季節性水平。但我們對他們的期望是繼續管理他們的庫存。而2024年，還是要看宏觀形勢。戈庫爾？

Okay. So C. C., so that -- it sounds like you're still expecting at least early part of next year to still be a little bit challenging similar to what it is looking like right now. Is that fair to say?

好的。所以，C.C.，聽起來你仍然預計至少在明年初仍然會像現在一樣充滿挑戰。這麼說公平嗎？

We will give you our comment -- Gokul, we will give you our comment next time for 2024.

我們將向您提供我們的評論——Gokul，我們將在下次 2024 年向您提供我們的評論。

Next one, we have Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一位是來自摩根士丹利的查理·陳 (Charlie Chan)。

So my first question is about the overseas fab cost seems to get higher. So would TSMC consider to further adjust your pricing to absorb those increased costs?

所以我的第一個問題是海外晶圓廠成本似乎變得更高。那麼台積電是否會考慮進一步調整定價以吸收這些增加的成本？

And also management mentioned that you're doubling -- or more than doubling your advanced packaging given the AI rush order. Would that give you a chance to reprice the back-end foundry service? Because I remember there was a kind of below company's gross margin average. Would that be a chance to bring that back to the corporate average?

管理層還提到，鑑於人工智能緊急訂單，您的先進包裝將增加一倍甚至更多。這會讓您有機會重新定價後端代工服務嗎？因為我記得有一種公司的毛利率低於平均水平。這是否是一個將其恢復到企業平均水平的機會？

Okay, Charlie. Charlie's first question is, I guess, regarding pricing, 2 parts or 2 angles. First on the overseas fab. Given that the costs are higher, would TSMC consider to further adjust our wafer price.

好吧，查理。我想，查理的第一個問題是關於定價、2 個部分或 2 個角度。首先是海外晶圓廠。鑑於成本較高，台積電是否會考慮進一步調整我們的晶圓價格。

And also along similar lines related to advanced packaging, given we are -- C. C. said doubling roughly the capacity, would we consider to also charge more or higher given that the returns of the back end are lower.

同樣，沿著與先進封裝相關的類似路線，考慮到我們——C.C. 表示，將產能大致翻倍，考慮到後端的回報較低，我們是否會考慮收取更多或更高的費用。

Let me answer the first question first. Yes, the overseas fab will cost higher, at least for the near future, where their supply ecosystem is not mature yet. And the labor cost is, from our experience, actually is a little bit higher than we expected.

我先回答第一個問題。是的，海外晶圓廠的成本會更高，至少在不久的將來，他們的供應生態系統尚未成熟。根據我們的經驗，勞動力成本實際上比我們預期的要高一些。

But to answer your question, yes, as we try to get the maximum government subsidy and we also really look at the -- how the price value for the overseas geographical flexibilities is all considered.

但要回答你的問題，是的，當我們試圖獲得最大的政府補貼時，我們也會真正考慮如何考慮海外地域靈活性的價格價值。

The aim is to, one, to increase our customer trust, make them continue to work with us going forward under the geopolitical concerns. Secondly is to maximize shareholders' value. To answer your question on price is strategically yes.

目的是，第一，增加客戶對我們的信任，讓他們在地緣政治擔憂下繼續與我們合作。其次是股東價值最大化。從戰略上回答你關於價格的問題是肯定的。

C. C., can you answer the second question?

C.C.，你能回答第二個問題嗎？

All right. Okay. I think the second question is about the pricing of the -- on the CoWoS. As I answer the question, we are increasing the capacity as soon as possible manner. Of course, that including actual cost. So in fact, we are working with our customers. And the most important thing for them right now is supply assurance. It's a supply to meet their demand.

好的。好的。我認為第二個問題是關於 CoWoS 的定價。在我回答這個問題時，我們正在盡快增加產能。當然，這包括實際成本。事實上，我們正​​在與客戶合作。而現在對他們來說最重要的是供應保障。這是滿足他們需求的供應。

So we are working with them. We do everything possible to increase the capacity. And of course, at the same time, we share our value.

所以我們正在與他們合作。我們盡一切可能增加產能。當然，與此同時，我們分享我們的價值。

May I ask a second question, it's a different topic. Is that okay?

我可以問第二個問題嗎，這是一個不同的話題。可以嗎？

Sure. You get 2 questions, so sure.

當然。你肯定會收到 2 個問題。

So another question is about the AI semi demand, right, since you're providing your revenue contribution growth assumption that is super helpful. But I'm wondering how TSMC can judge the AI demand because right now it's arms race right now. Our customers are very aggressive booking capacity. So I'm wondering how company can judge whether those AI semi demand is for real?

所以另一個問題是關於人工智能半需求，對吧，因為你提供的收入貢獻增長假設非常有幫助。但我想知道台積電如何判斷人工智能需求，因為現在是軍備競賽。我們的客戶的預訂能力非常積極。所以我想知道公司如何判斷這些AI半需求是否是真實的？

And also in terms of breakdown, I'm wondering whether company sees that ASIC, the cost of chip is outgrowing GPU.

而且就細分而言，我想知道公司是否認為 ASIC、芯片的成本已經超過了 GPU。

I think the more important one should be the first part of the question. Especially investors are concerned whether AI is cannibalizing the CPU server demand. So those are kind of the questions in our mind.

我認為更重要的應該是問題的第一部分。投資者尤其擔心人工智能是否正在蠶食CPU服務器的需求。這些都是我們心中的問題。

Okay. Let me summarize your second question, Charlie. Charlie's on AI demand. He wants to know how do we judge the demand properly because customers are very aggressive, but how -- in his words, how do we know that this demand is real? And then also how do we see the demand specifically for ASICs as it relates to AI?

好的。讓我總結一下你的第二個問題，查理。查理有人工智能需求。他想知道我們如何正確判斷需求，因為客戶非常激進，但用他的話說，我們如何知道這種需求是真實的？然後，我們如何看待與人工智能相關的 ASIC 的特殊需求？

Okay. You want to answer?

好的。你想回答嗎？

Let me try first then you probably follow up. This is a very deep question. Of course, we have a model, basically. The short-term frenzy about the AI demand definitely cannot extrapolate for the long term. And neither can we predict the near future, meaning next year, how the sudden demand will continue or will flatten out.

讓我先嘗試一下，然後你可能會跟進。這是一個很深奧的問題。當然，基本上我們有一個模型。對人工智能需求的短期狂熱絕對不能推斷出長期的情況。我們也無法預測不久的將來，即明年，突然的需求將如何持續或將趨於平緩。

However, our model is based on the data center structure. We assume a certain percentage of the data center processor are AI processors, and based on that, we calculate the AI processor demand. And this model is yet to be fitted to the practical data later on. But in general, I think the -- our trend of a big portion of data center processor will be AI processor is a sure thing.

然而，我們的模型是基於數據中心結構的。我們假設數據中心處理器中有一定比例是AI處理器，並據此計算AI處理器的需求。而且這個模型還有待後期實際數據的擬合。但總的來說，我認為我們數據中心處理器的很大一部分趨勢將是人工智能處理器是肯定的事情。

And will it cannibalize the data center processors? In the short term, when the CapEx of the cloud service providers are fixed, yes, it will. It is. But as for the long term, when their data service -- when the cloud service is having the generative AI service revenue, I think they will increase the CapEx. That should be consistent with the long-term AI processor demand. And I mean the CapEx will increase because of the generative AI services. Anything more for you?

它會蠶食數據中心處理器嗎？從短期來看，當云服務提供商的資本支出固定時，是的，它會固定。這是。但從長遠來看，當他們的數據服務——當云服務產生人工智能服務收入時，我認為他們會增加資本支出。這應該符合人工智能處理器的長期需求。我的意思是，由於生成式人工智能服務，資本支出將會增加。還有什麼要給你的嗎？

Yes. Charlie, I think part of Charlie's question is also how do we see ASIC related in AI development?

是的。 Charlie，我認為 Charlie 的部分問題是我們如何看待 ASIC 與人工智能開發的相關性？

Well, actually, the customer also have high demand on the ASIC part for the AI application. And as Mark pointed out, short-term sudden increase you can extrapolate it to be long term.

那麼其實客戶對於AI應用的ASIC部分也有很高的需求。正如馬克指出的，短期的突然增加你可以推斷出它是長期的。

But again, let me emphasize that those kind of applications in the AI, be it CPUs, GPUs or AI accelerator or ASIC, they all need leading-edge technologies. And they all have one symptom: they are using the very large die size, which is TSMC's strength.

但我再次強調，人工智能中的這類應用，無論是CPU、GPU還是人工智能加速器或ASIC，都需要領先的技術。他們都有一個症狀：他們使用非常大的芯片尺寸，這是台積電的強項。

Next one to ask questions, Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

下一位提問者是瑞信銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

Yes. I wanted to shift to the profitability, maybe more for Wendell. For -- looking at the fourth quarter, you mentioned the 3- to 4-point dilution from N3. I think that is 2 to 3 points in the third quarter. Is that what you're suggesting the directional change could be a little bit down margin profile? Or do you have positive offsets that could keep it more stable?

是的。我想轉向盈利能力，也許對溫德爾來說更多。就第四季度而言，您提到了 N3 的 3 到 4 點稀釋。我認為這是第三節的2到3分。這就是您所建議的方向性變化可能會稍微降低利潤率嗎？或者您是否有積極的補償可以使其更加穩定？

And then a follow-up on the margin where you discussed it's a tough year for margins on these factors like the energy, ramp-up 3. But could you discuss 2024, do you think we're going into a period of a bit more challenging profitability where you see factors that we could comfortably get back to the 53% and above next year?

然後是關於利潤率的後續行動，您討論了今年對於能源等因素的利潤率來說是艱難的一年，增長 3。但是您能否討論一下 2024 年，您是否認為我們將進入一個盈利能力更具挑戰性的時期，您認為明年我們可以輕鬆回到 53% 及以上的因素？

Okay. Thank you, Randy. So Randy's first question is on gross margin. Fourth quarter with the N3 dilution of 3% to 4%, does that mean directionally, fourth quarter margin is sequentially down? Are there any positive offsets?

好的。謝謝你，蘭迪。所以蘭迪的第一個問題是毛利率。第四季度 N3 稀釋度為 3% 至 4%，這是否意味著第四季度利潤率連續下降？是否有任何積極的抵消？

And then for looking to 2024 for the full year, if Wendell can give some comments about 2024 gross margin. Will it also be challenging? Or do we still feel confident in a 53% and higher gross margin?

然後展望 2024 年全年，Wendell 能否對 2024 年毛利率發表一些評論。也會有挑戰性嗎？或者我們仍然對 53% 及更高的毛利率充滿信心嗎？

Okay, Randy. Starting from the second half of this year, as we said, we faced certain cost challenges including the ramp of N3, which will dilute about 2 to 3 percentage points in third quarter and 3% to 4% in the fourth quarter plus the higher electricity cost. But we're not giving our guidance on the fourth quarter at this moment. We're just spelling out some of the challenges that we're seeing. And of course, we are going to continue to drive down our costs and sell our value to ensure that we will have a good return on the node. That's for this year.

好吧，蘭迪。正如我們所說，從今年下半年開始，我們面臨著一定的成本挑戰，包括 N3 的增加，這將在第三季度稀釋約 2 至 3 個百分點，在第四季度稀釋 3% 至 4%，再加上較高的電費。但我們目前不會給出第四季度的指導。我們只是闡述我們所看到的一些挑戰。當然，我們將繼續降低成本並出售我們的價值，以確保我們在節點上獲得良好的回報。這是今年的事。

For next year, we're seeing -- we're not talking about the whole gross margin, but we still see that N3 will dilute about 3 to 4 percentage points of next year's gross margin. And although the yield rate will be better next year, at the same time the percentage of revenue contributed by N3 will be bigger. So net-net, we also see some dilution from the N3 next year. But the margin -- the guidance will be given out next year.

對於明年，我們看到——我們不是在談論整個毛利率，但我們仍然看到 N3 將稀釋明年毛利率約 3 到 4 個百分點。而且雖然明年的良率會更好，但同時N3貢獻的收入比例也會更大。因此，我們還看到明年的 N3 會出現一些稀釋。但利潤率——指導意見將於明年發布。

Okay. A quick follow-up to the first question. I think the last few nodes was 2 to 3 points dilution in the first year or 2 of ramp. The factor for it larger, is it the higher capital intensity or something different with 3 versus 5 and 7? Or it looks like a little bit more dilution?

好的。快速跟進第一個問題。我認為最後幾個節點在第一年或第二年的斜坡中稀釋了 2 到 3 個點。影響更大的因素是資本密集度更高還是 3 與 5 和 7 不同？或者看起來像是稀釋了一點？

Yes. The increasing process complexity does add on to the challenges of a newer node. However, the other important factor is that our corporate averages has become higher than before. We used to have 50% gross margin. We're now talking about 53% and higher gross margin.

是的。不斷增加的流程複雜性確實增加了新節點的挑戰。然而，另一個重要因素是我們的企業平均水平比以前更高了。我們以前的毛利率是50%。我們現在談論的是 53% 及更高的毛利率。

Okay. And the second question, I wanted to ask how you're thinking about CapEx, just netting a few things, the geographic expansion, the 3 and then the start of 2-nanometer, the first ramp-up or tool move-in versus the mixed outlook you're looking at for macro for a ballpark CapEx into next year.

好的。第二個問題，我想問你如何看待資本支出，只是淨賺一些東西，地理擴張，3 納米，然後是 2 納米的開始，第一次加速或工具的移入，與你對明年大致資本支出的宏觀前景的混合展望。

And if I could, maybe within it, ask if the Arizona fab delays, does that push out where you mentioned the low end of guidance, push out some of this year to give some lift to next year?

如果我可以，也許在其中，問一下亞利桑那州晶圓廠是否會推遲，這是否會超出您提到的指導低端，推遲今年的一些時間，從而為明年帶來一些提升？

Okay. So Randy's second question is on CapEx. He wants to know, basically focusing on 2024 CapEx, do some of the delays in the Arizona fab push out CapEx from this year to next year as we expand overseas, as we invest in N2, but at the same time, as the macro remains uncertain, how does this impact 2024 CapEx?

好的。蘭迪的第二個問題是關於資本支出的。他想知道，基本上關注 2024 年的資本支出，隨著我們向海外擴張、投資 N2，亞利桑那州晶圓廠的一些延遲是否會從今年推遲到明年的資本支出，但與此同時，由於宏觀仍然不確定，這對 2024 年的資本支出有何影響？

Yes. Randy, the push out of fabs does push out some part of the CapEx, but that doesn't affect a big part. For 2024, it's too early to talk about the overall CapEx.

是的。蘭迪，晶圓廠的退出確實會減少部分資本支出，但這不會影響很大一部分。對於 2024 年，現在談論整體資本支出還為時過早。

However, our CapEx, if you -- as we said before, every year, we spend the CapEx to capture the future growth opportunities. And in the past few years, our CapEx has risen very fast to capture the megatrend. And going forward, the next few years, when we start to harvest those investments, we believe that CapEx will begin to level off in terms of dollar amount. And that will lead to -- start to lower the capital intensity in the next several years.

然而，我們的資本支出，如果你——正如我們之前所說，每年，我們都會花費資本支出來捕捉未來的增長機會。在過去幾年中，我們的資本支出增長非常快，以捕捉大趨勢。展望未來，未來幾年，當我們開始收穫這些投資時，我們相信資本支出將開始趨於平穩（按美元金額計算）。這將導致未來幾年開始降低資本密集度。

Sorry, Randy, sorry, do...

對不起，蘭迪，對不起，請...

Oh yes, my quick follow-up. I think you mentioned in the past you could use your 5-nanometer to support the ramp of 3. Given the AI and some of that pickup, do you still see that potential that could help optimize CapEx? Or do you need to keep it for existing node? And that's my final one.

哦，是的，我的快速跟進。我想您過去提到過您可以使用 5 納米來支持 3 納米的提升。考慮到人工智能和其中的一些提升，您是否仍然看到可以幫助優化資本支出的潛力？或者您需要為現有節點保留它嗎？這是我的最後一篇。

Yes. So Randy is just also asking then how does tool commonality play a role in our future CapEx?

是的。所以蘭迪也想問，工具通用性如何在我們未來的資本支出中發揮作用？

Yes. We always build with 2 commonality between nodes to provide greater flexibility. We mentioned last time the strong multiyear demand from N3, we are able to support that using some of the tools from N5. We're not going to comment on the CapEx beyond this year. However, as I just mentioned, every year, the CapEx spend to capture the future growth opportunities.

是的。我們始終在節點之間構建 2 個通用性，以提供更大的靈活性。我們上次提到了 N3 多年以來的強勁需求，我們能夠使用 N5 的一些工具來支持這一需求。我們不會對今年以後的資本支出發表評論。然而，正如我剛才提到的，每年都會花費資本支出來捕捉未來的增長機會。

Next one to ask questions is Laura Chen from Citi.

下一位提問的是花旗銀行的 Laura Chen。

Very appreciate C. C. and Mark sharing on TSMC's view on the longer-term outlook in AI. So I'm just wondering how does TSMC evaluate your back-end capacity expansion to think with the front-end wafer side? Since there is no problem in the foundry space, were you kind of concerned about potential overcapacity in the back-end side beyond next year? Or actually, we may see more upside at the foundry wafer side, so our, say, like advanced node utilization rate may go higher into next year? That's my first question.

非常感謝 C. C. 和 Mark 分享台積電對人工智能長期前景的看法。所以我只是想知道台積電如何評估你的後端產能擴張以與前端晶圓側一起思考？既然代工領域沒有問題，您是否擔心明年以後後端方面可能出現產能過剩？或者實際上，我們可能會在代工晶圓方面看到更多的上漲空間，因此我們的先進節點利用率可能會在明年更高？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. So Laura's first question is looking at our expansion of advanced packaging or back end versus the front-end wafer. As we are expanding the back end, but not the front end, does that imply that, first, that our front-end wafer particularly leading node, we expect the utilization to increase next year? And then conversely, or is there a risk that we are over expanding or overcapacity risk for the packaging side?

好的。因此，勞拉的第一個問題是看看我們先進封裝或後端與前端晶圓的擴張。由於我們正在擴展後端，而不是前端，這是否意味著，首先，我們的前端晶圓特別是領先節點，我們預計明年的利用率會增加？那麼反過來，或者說我們在包裝方面是否存在過度擴張或產能過剩的風險？

Okay, Laura. Let me answer the question. AI today is a very hot topic. A lot of my customers right now increased their demand and that will increase their front-end demand, of course. TSMC almost have the major share -- or the largest share, let me say that, in the front-end wafer. According to the front-end [loading], we really work closely with our customer to decide what is the back end that they need.

好吧，勞拉。讓我來回答這個問題。人工智能如今是一個非常熱門的話題。我的很多客戶現在增加了他們的需求，這當然會增加他們的前端需求。在前端晶圓方面，台積電幾乎佔據了主要份額，或者可以說是最大份額。根據前端[正在加載]，我們確實與客戶密切合作來決定他們需要什麼後端。

And so on that perspective, we are planning our CoWoS capacity, although probably still not enough, but we're working very hard to increase it. Overcapacity, not today is a concern. Today concern's not enough capacity to support all the very strong demand.

從這個角度來看，我們正在規劃我們的 CoWoS 容量，儘管可能仍然不夠，但我們正在非常努力地增加它。產能過剩，不是今天所關注的問題。今天，人們擔心沒有足夠的能力來支持所有非常強勁的需求。

Okay. Thank you, C. C.

好的。謝謝你，C.C.

That's very clear. And my second question is also about the gross margin outlook. If I'm wrong, please correct me. I recall that the previous cycle like 7- or 5-nanometer, the capacity usually will be 3x in the third year of the new technology ramping.

這非常清楚。我的第二個問題也是關於毛利率前景。如果我錯了，請糾正我。我記得上一個週期，比如7納米或5納米，在新技術提升的第三年，產能通常會是3倍。

So I'm still -- I'm wondering it's still the case for N3. In particular, we have seen that significant capacity intensity increase may lead to some margin pressure and particularly in the first few years. So I'm just wondering how does TSMC balance your technology leadership and also the margin saturation?

所以我仍然——我想知道 N3 仍然是這樣。特別是，我們發現產能強度的顯著增加可能會導致一定的利潤壓力，特別是在最初幾年。所以我只是想知道台積電如何平衡你們的技術領先地位和利潤飽和度？

Laura, you said 3x -- sorry, are you referring to the revenue contribution? Sorry, you said N7...

勞拉，你說的是 3 倍——抱歉，你指的是收入貢獻嗎？抱歉，你說的是N7...

Capacity. The capacity. Yes.

容量。容量。是的。

Okay. So all right, let me try to summarize your question. I think Laura is asking N7 and N5, we substantially expand the capacity. So what is the case for N3?

好的。好吧，讓我試著總結一下你的問題。我認為勞拉是在要求N7和N5，我們大幅擴大容量。那麼N3的情況又如何呢？

And then also in terms of the profitability of N3, or gross margin to be more specific, as it compares to N5 and N7 previously? Is that roughly correct, Laura?

然後，與之前的 N5 和 N7 相比，N3 的盈利能力，或者更具體地說是毛利率？勞拉，這大致正確嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, Laura. Let me answer this question. As I just mentioned, the N3 due to the increasing process complexity is becoming more challenging than the previous nodes. We -- but at the same time, we will continue to sell our value and drive down the cost at the same time. But -- the -- we still believe that N3 will be a long-lasting and a large node for TSMC. With all the efforts, we still believe that the whole company's gross margin will be 53% and higher.

好吧，勞拉。讓我來回答這個問題。正如我剛才提到的，由於工藝複雜性不斷增加，N3 變得比以前的節點更具挑戰性。但與此同時，我們將繼續出售我們的價值並降低成本。但是，我們仍然相信 N3 將是台積電的一個持久的大節點。經過大家的努力，我們仍然相信整個公司的毛利率將會達到53%甚至更高。

Yes, right now, we have Rolf Bulk from New Street Research.

是的，現在我們有來自 New Street Research 的 Rolf Bulk。

This quarter, you said the legacy node 16 and 28-nanometer in particular were down around 15% to 20% Q-on-Q. And my question is, were there any particular end markets that caused this decline? And how do you think about the recovery of those legacy nodes? Should we still expect recovery in the fourth quarter of this year? Or is that more 2024 event?

本季度，您表示傳統節點 16 和 28 納米尤其是環比下降了 15% 至 20% 左右。我的問題是，是否有任何特定的終端市場導致了這種下降？您如何看待這些遺留節點的恢復？我們是否還應該期待今年第四季度的複蘇？或者說這更像是 2024 年的事件？

Okay. So Rolf's first question is looking on the mature nodes, such as 16 and 28. He knows that -- he notes, sorry, that those all saw sequential declines in the second quarter.

好的。因此，Rolf 的第一個問題是關注成熟的節點，例如 16 和 28。他知道 - 他指出，抱歉，這些節點在第二季度都出現了連續下降。

So his question is, what is driving this -- what end markets are driving this decline? And what is the expectation for this in the second half?

所以他的問題是，是什麼推動了這種下降——哪些終端市場推動了這種下降？下半年對此有何期待？

Well, let me answer that question. The mature nodes, wafer actually or the product actually tried to be companion to -- for the smartphone or for the PC market or for the HPC. So while the total unit of smartphone become weaker and PC become weaker, so it's a high -- the leading-edge technology node being -- also demand dropping and so the mature node, that's together. Did I answer your question?

好吧，讓我回答這個問題。成熟的節點、晶圓實際上或產品實際上試圖成為智能手機、PC 市場或 HPC 的伴侶。因此，雖然智能手機的總量變得更弱，個人電腦也變得更弱，所以它是一個高點——領先的技術節點——同時需求也在下降，因此成熟的節點，這是在一起的。我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. That's very clear. For my second question, maybe your focus on CoWoS and advanced packaging in general and also the weakness that you see in the remainder of your business, could you maybe comment on the percentage of your CapEx spending that will go towards leading nodes, specialty nodes and packaging this year compared to last year?

是的。這非常清楚。對於我的第二個問題，也許您主要關注 CoWoS 和先進封裝，以及您在其餘業務中看到的弱點，您能否評論一下您的資本支出中用於領先節點、專業節點和今年的包裝與去年相比？

Okay. So Rolf's second question is for 2023 CapEx, which our CFO has said towards the lower end of the 32% to 36% range, can we give a breakdown between leading-edge specialty technologies and then the packaging, testing, mass-making and others?

好的。因此，Rolf 的第二個問題是關於 2023 年資本支出，我們的首席財務官表示，資本支出接近 32% 至 36% 範圍的下限，我們能否對領先的專業技術與封裝、測試、批量生產等進行細分？

Leading-edge technology accounts for between 70% to 80% of our total CapEx in the year. Mature -- specialty technology between 10% to 20%. And the remaining are split between advanced packaging and EBO and some others.

領先技術占我們今年總資本支出的 70% 至 80%。成熟——專業技術在10%到20%之間。其餘的則分為先進封裝和 EBO 等。

Next one, we have Sunny Lin from UBS.

下一位是來自瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

So my number one question is on 3-nanometer ramp-up. As we are going through several quarters of mass production, I think you must have pretty good visibility for customer engagement for the coming few years. So I wonder, now how should we think about the overall ramp of 3-nanometer if we compare with 5- and 7-nanometer?

所以我的第一個問題是關於 3 納米的提升。由於我們正在進行幾個季度的大規模生產，我認為您對未來幾年的客戶參與度一定有很好的了解。所以我想知道，現在如果我們與 5 納米和 7 納米進行比較，我們應該如何看待 3 納米的整體提升？

If we look at 5, you reached towards 18% of revenue in the second year of mass production and then about 24% of revenue in the third year. Whereas for 3-nanometer, I think the concerns by smartphone customers have been on cost. Then the question will be, if HPC is significant enough to still drive a meaningful pickup of 3-nanometer and so would be greatly appreciate if you could provide us any kind of thoughts.

如果我們看 5，你會在量產的第二年達到收入的 18%，然後在第三年達到收入的 24% 左右。而對於 3 納米，我認為智能手機客戶的擔憂在於成本。那麼問題是，HPC 是否足夠重要，仍然可以驅動有意義的 3 納米拾音器，如果您能為我們提供任何想法，我們將不勝感激。

Okay. So Sunny's first question is on the ramp of 3-nanometer. Her question really, I believe, is coming from a percentage of revenue contribution. She wants to know how is the ramp of 3-nanometer? And then, can it contribute to the revenue like N5, N7 in the past?

好的。因此，Sunny 的第一個問題是關於 3 納米的發展。我相信，她的問題實際上來自於收入貢獻的百分比。她想知道3納米的進度如何？那麼它能否像過去的N5、N7那樣貢獻收入呢？

Yes. As I just said, we believe N3 will be a long-lasting and large node for TSMC.

是的。正如我剛才所說，我們相信N3將是台積電一個持久的大節點。

Now in terms of percentage, I think it's sometimes less important because our overall corporate revenue is much, much bigger these days than before. So I think you should also take that into consideration. But dollar amount-wise, it's a much bigger node, yes.

現在就百分比而言，我認為有時不太重要，因為現在我們的整體公司收入比以前大得多。所以我認為你也應該考慮到這一點。但就美元金額而言，這是一個更大的節點，是的。

And C. C. also said it's a multiyear strong structural demand. Yes, sorry. Okay.

C.C. 還表示，這是多年來強勁的結構性需求。是的，抱歉。好的。

Got it. Well, so I have a quick follow-up on 3-nanometer profitability. And so Wendell has provided a pretty good insight about the dilution for 2024. But historically, a new node would take about 7 to 8 quarters to get to corporate average after mass production. I understand now corporate average gross margin is also higher, but any expectations that N3 will become in line with corporate average gross margin?

知道了。嗯，所以我對 3 納米的盈利能力進行了快速跟進。因此，Wendell 對 2024 年的稀釋情況提供了相當好的見解。但從歷史上看，一個新節點在大規模生產後需要大約 7 到 8 個季度才能達到企業平均水平。據我了解現在企業平均毛利率也較高，但是是否期望N3會與企業平均毛利率保持一致？

Yes. So Sunny's question is looking at the 3-nanometer. Her question is really that with 3-nanometer and process complexity. Sunny you're asking really can it reach the corporate average over time?

是的。所以 Sunny 的問題是著眼於 3 納米。她的問題實際上是 3 納米和工藝複雜性。陽光明媚，你問它真的能隨著時間的推移達到公司平均水平嗎？

Or is there a time line that you are expecting?

或者有一個你期待的時間線嗎？

Or end time line to reach.

或結束時間線到達。

Yes. Sunny, as I just mentioned, it's becoming more challenging for the leading nodes because of the process complexity increases a lot. It applies to N3. So it will be challenging for N3. And we actually mentioned that at the beginning of last year already, it will be challenging that for N3 to reach the corporate average in the -- in 7 to 8 quarters time frame like before, yes. But -- however, part of it is really because of the higher corporate margin that we currently have.

是的。 Sunny，正如我剛才提到的，由於流程複雜性增加了很多，因此對於領先節點來說變得更具挑戰性。適用於N3。所以對於N3來說會是一個挑戰。事實上，我們在去年年初就已經提到過，N3 要像以前一樣在 7 到 8 個季度的時間內達到公司平均水平將是一個挑戰，是的。但是，部分原因實際上是因為我們目前的企業利潤率較高。

Got it. My second question is on 2-nanometer. And so if we look at your target for 2-nanometer's improvement over 3-nanometer in terms of speed and power, the upgrade seems to be actually less than 3-nanometer over 5-nanometer. So I wonder what's actually the implication of GAA transition to cost versus performance? Is the target somewhat conservative? Or there is other technological challenges that we need to consider?

知道了。我的第二個問題是關於2納米的。因此，如果我們看看 2 納米在速度和功率方面相對於 3 納米的改進目標，那麼升級似乎實際上小於 3 納米相對於 5 納米。所以我想知道 GAA 過渡到成本與性能實際上意味著什麼？目標是否有些保守？或者還有其他我們需要考慮的技術挑戰？

Okay. Sunny's, second -- well it's really her third, but the question is on N2. She notes that the performance and the improvement seems to be less than 3-nanometer versus 5-nanometer. So could we talk more about that?

好的。桑尼（Sunny），第二——嗯，這實際上是她的第三，但問題是在 N2 上。她指出，與 5 納米相比，3 納米的性能和改進似乎要少一些。那麼我們可以多談談嗎？

Yes, let me answer the question. Sunny, you have a very good observation. Yes, you are right. As I compare node-to-node from 5 to 3, the improvement, it becomes less from 3 to 2. But let me point it out, usually we are talking about the performance, the speed and also the density, so that [diameter's shrinkage].

是的，讓我回答這個問題。桑尼，你的觀察力很好。是的你是對的。當我比較從 5 到 3 的節點到節點時，改進從 3 到 2 變得更少。但是讓我指出，通常我們談論的是性能、速度和密度，因此 [直徑的收縮]。

Now we focus on the power consumption reduction, which is still a full node performance because of as time goes by, more and more customer really they are increasing towards greater power efficiency. This is very important for the data center, very important for the server. And that's what we are working on. So did I answer your question, Sunny?

現在我們專注於降低功耗，這仍然是全節點性能，因為隨著時間的推移，越來越多的客戶確實正在提高電源效率。這對於數據中心來說非常重要，對於服務器來說非常重要。這就是我們正在努力的方向。那麼我回答你的問題了嗎，桑尼？

Got it. And good to know that you are on track to deliver a second generation of 2-nanometer in 2026.

知道了。很高興知道您有望在 2026 年推出第二代 2 納米技術。

Next one to ask questions is Brett Simpson from Arete.

下一位提問者是來自 Arete 的 Brett Simpson。

The first question is for C. C. Was interested in getting a read on the customer reception you're getting for the new variants for N3, I think you talked about N3P, N3X. Are customers still as focused on N3E? Or are you seeing a preference for them to migrate to the new variants such as N3P, N3X rather than N3E?

第一個問題是問 C. C. 的。有興趣了解一下您對 N3 新變體的客戶反應情況，我想您談到了 N3P、N3X。客戶仍然關注 N3E 嗎？或者您是否發現他們更傾向於遷移到 N3P、N3X 等新變體而不是 N3E？

And this is a follow-on. For AI, when do we actually start to see N3 -- adoption for N3?

這是後續。對於 AI，我們什麼時候才能真正開始看到 N3——N3 的採用？

Okay. So Brett's first question is looking at our 3-nanometer families and the continuous enhancements that we always have. He is asking, what is the customer reception of N3P and N3X? How does this compare or cannibalize N3?

好的。因此，Brett 的第一個問題是看看我們的 3 納米系列以及我們一直以來的持續改進。他在問，N3P和N3X的客戶接受度如何？這與 N3 相比或如何蠶食 N3？

And when do we expect AI related to adopt 3-nanometer family solutions?

那麼我們預計什麼時候AI相關的產品會採用3納米系列解決方案呢？

Let me answer the last one first. AI application already adopting that -- our N3 technology node. We continue to improve our technology as we always do. So we have N3E, N3P and N3X.

我先回答最後一個。人工智能應用程序已經採用了我們的 N3 技術節點。我們一如既往地不斷改進我們的技術。所以我們有 N3E、N3P 和 N3X。

X is the actual performance that's for the very high-speed, very high, let me say, performance computing for some of the CPUs application.

X 是針對某些 CPU 應用程序的非常高速、非常高的性能計算的實際性能。

But N3Es are widely accepted by all of my customer, and the design starting from N3E. And we help them -- okay, for some of them go to the N3P.

但N3E被我所有的客戶廣泛接受，並且設計從N3E開始。我們幫助他們——好吧，他們中的一些人去了 N3P。

So all together, every version, every variation, there's a lot of customer engagement right now.

因此，總的來說，每個版本、每個變體，現在都有大量的客戶參與。

Thank you, C. C.

謝謝你，C.C.

And maybe just my second question is for Mark. Mark, you were talking about the -- building up the ecosystem in some of the overseas markets like the U.S. and you're talking about skill shortage.

也許我的第二個問題是問馬克的。馬克，你談到了在美國等一些海外市場建立生態系統，而且你談到了技能短缺。

But can you talk about what you think the like-for-like wafer cost difference is to operate in the U.S. versus Taiwan. I think your TSMC founder talked previously about a 50% premium to operate in the U.S. Can you just clarify if it's likely to be that high? And then when would you expect the cash support from the U.S. CHIP Act to be made available to TSMC?

但您能否談談您認為在美國與台灣運營的同類晶圓成本差異是什麼？我想你們的台積電創始人之前談到過在美國運營需要 50% 的溢價。您能澄清一下是否有可能這麼高嗎？那麼您預計什麼時候可以向台積電提供美國芯片法案的現金支持？

Okay. So Brett's second question is for Chairman. He wants to know, in basically the cost gap how big is the cost gap of fab in the U.S. versus in Taiwan? Founder has said 50% or more. Is it that high?

好的。布雷特的第二個問題是問主席的。他想知道，從根本上來說，美國晶圓廠與台灣晶圓廠的成本差距有多大？創始人曾說過50%或更多。有那麼高嗎？

And then concurrently, with the CHIPS Act, when -- or how and when do we expect to receive the incentives to support?

然後，與此同時，根據《CHIPS 法案》，我們預計何時——或者如何以及何時獲得支持激勵？

Yes, Brett Simpson, I think the founder is right. I mean at this point, if we're using the current supply chain and labor cost, indeed, there's that differences.

是的，布雷特·辛普森，我認為創始人是對的。我的意思是，在這一點上，如果我們使用當前的供應鍊和勞動力成本，確實存在差異。

However, we try to work with the U.S. administration. First of all, on the subsidy, cash subsidy and tax -- investment tax credit, that is to cover the gap in the first 5 years approximately. When the tool is depreciated, then the ecosystem becomes prominent. That is, what is that, material costs, chemical costs and the labor cost. And we are working with our supplier to set up some of the more efficient supply sites to be lower, but they -- and the U.S. administration has decided also to subsidize the supply -- our suppliers.

但是，我們嘗試與美國政府合作。首先，在補貼上，現金補貼和稅收——投資稅收抵免，也就是大約彌補前5年的缺口。當工具貶值時，生態系統就會變得突出。也就是說，什麼是材料成本、化學品成本和勞動力成本。我們正在與我們的供應商合作，建立一些效率更高、成本更低的供應地點，但他們——以及美國政府也決定對我們的供應商進行供應補貼。

So that is still in the work. How much it can further decrease, I don't know. But I think either way, we will strengthen our pricing values and be able to keep the corporate profitability as we forecasted now.

所以這仍在工作中。還能減少多少，我不知道。但我認為無論哪種方式，我們都將加強我們的定價價值，並能夠保持我們現在預測的企業盈利能力。

Thank you, Chairman. Okay. Thank you, Brett.

謝謝主席。好的。謝謝你，布雷特。

Yes. Next one to ask question, Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

是的。下一位提問者是來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. I'm going to go back to the gross margin. And I think you highlighted the fact that for '23, you're still tracking to 53% gross margin on a USD basis. That would imply that Q4 could be flat to up.

是的。我要回到毛利率。我認為您強調了這樣一個事實，即 23 年，按美元計算，您的毛利率仍達到 53%。這意味著第四季度可能會持平到上升。

And I just want to better understand how this is tracking. I'm not asking for a guide on Q4, but if 2023 gross margin is going to be 53%-plus, that would imply Q4 flat to up. Is that correct?

我只是想更好地了解這是如何跟踪的。我並不是要求提供第四季度的指導，但如果 2023 年毛利率將達到 53% 以上，那就意味著第四季度將持平。那是對的嗎？

All right, Mehdi. I think we'll let Wendell answer this question. But Mehdi is asking basically, are we saying that 2023 will be 53% and higher?

好吧，邁赫迪。我想我們會讓溫德爾回答這個問題。但邁赫迪基本上是在問，我們是說 2023 年這一比例將達到 53% 甚至更高嗎？

Mehdi, we're not giving our guidance beyond this third quarter. So we're not saying what Jeff just said. What we're saying is only some of the negative factors will affect the second half of the year.

邁赫迪，我們不會在第三季度之後提供指導。所以我們說的不是傑夫剛才所說的。我們所說的只是影響下半年的一些負面因素。

As to 53% and higher, that's a long-term growth margin target for TSMC.

至於53%及以上，這是台積電的長期增長率目標。

Yes, we did not provide a guidance for 2023 specifically, Mehdi. As Wendell just said, 53% or higher is our long-term target, which we believe is achievable. Do you have a second question?

是的，Mehdi，我們沒有專門提供 2023 年的指導。正如溫德爾剛才所說，53%或更高是我們的長期目標，我們認為這是可以實現的。您還有第二個問題嗎？

Okay. Yes. Your updated guide suggests that revenues in the second half would be up 10% to 12% versus the first half. Obviously, the step-up is lower than prior expectation.

好的。是的。您更新後的指南表明，下半年的收入將比上半年增長 10% 到 12%。顯然，此次漲幅低於之前的預期。

What I want to better understand is how should we think about continued inventory correction among your customer versus new product ramp by some of the other customers? Is there any way you can differentiate these 2 trends?

我想更好地理解的是，與其他一些客戶的新產品增加相比，我們應該如何考慮您的客戶的持續庫存調整？有什麼方法可以區分這兩種趨勢嗎？

Okay. Mehdi is asking with our full year guidance, it implies a more mild second half seasonality. So he wants to know how much strength of the new customer product launches is offset by continued inventory correction, sort of if we can provide more color on that?

好的。邁赫迪詢問我們的全年指導，這意味著下半年的季節性更加溫和。因此，他想知道新客戶產品發布的力度有多少被持續的庫存調整所抵消，我們是否可以提供更多的信息？

That's a tough question to answer. Mehdi, your observation is right. Our second half seasonality is more mild than previous years. But of course, we have N3 ramping up for the new product launch. But what is the impact, how to separate them, no, I cannot share too much of the detail of that.

這是一個很難回答的問題。邁赫迪，你的觀察是正確的。我們下半年的季節性比往年更加溫和。當然，我們已經為新產品的發布準備了 N3。但影響是什麼，如何將它們分開，不，我不能分享太多細節。

Yes, the last one on queue is Charles Shi from Needham.

是的，隊列中的最後一位是來自 Needham 的 Charles Shi。

I have 2 questions. The first question is I want to ask about AI, especially around TSMC's monetization of the AI trend. We did hear some commentary that for certain AI applications, TSMC is selling chips for a few hundred bucks, but TSMC customers can actually sell for tens of thousands of dollars to their end customers. So I mean some investors I spoke with really still -- [it pains them] to see TSMC create an advanced technology probably to give a greater value than this.

我有 2 個問題。第一個問題是我想問關於AI的問題，特別是台積電對AI趨勢的貨幣化。我們確實聽到一些評論，對於某些人工智能應用，台積電以幾百美元的價格出售芯片，但台積電的客戶實際上可以以數万美元的價格出售給他們的最終客戶。所以我的意思是，我採訪過的一些投資者仍然看到台積電創造出一項先進技術，可能會帶來比這更大的價值，[這讓他們感到痛苦]。

So the question really is, how does TSMC think about maybe better monetization going forward for the capability to produce all these AI chips?

所以真正的問題是，台積電如何考慮未來更好的貨幣化以生產所有這些人工智能芯片的能力？

And really, I want to tie back to one thing management mentioned in the prepared remarks. The AI growth, 50% CAGR, how much of that is volume? And how much of that could be the pricing [actually] in terms of TSMC's expected growth over the next few years?

事實上，我想聯繫一下管理層在準備好的發言中提到的一件事。人工智能的增長，複合年增長率為 50%，其中有多少是數量？就台積電未來幾年的預期增長而言，其中的定價（實際上）有多少？

Okay. Charles' question, first is on AI. Again, basically, he's asking about monetization or capturing value, let's say. He notes that TSMC, we may be selling chips for a few hundred dollars, but our customers are able to sell it for tens of thousands or even more. So is TSMC giving away too much of the value? Can we better sell our value or monetize to capture greater value with the AI trend?

好的。查爾斯的問題，首先是關於人工智能。再說一遍，基本上，他是在詢問貨幣化或獲取價值的問題。他指出，台積電，我們可能賣幾百美元的芯片，但我們的客戶可以賣幾萬甚至更多。那麼台積電是否放棄了太多的價值呢？我們能否更好地出售我們的價值或貨幣化以利用人工智能趨勢獲取更大的價值？

Well, Charles, I used to make a joke on my customers say that I'm selling him a few hundred dollars per chip, and then he sold it back to me with USD 200,000.

嗯，查爾斯，我曾經對我的客戶開玩笑說，我每塊芯片賣給他幾百美元，然後他以 20 萬美元的價格賣回給我。

But let me say that we are happy to see customers doing very well. And if customers do well, TSMC does well. And of course, we work with them and we sell our value to them. And fundamentally, we want to say that we are able to address and capture a major portion of the market in terms of a semiconductor component in AI. Did I answer your question?

但我要說的是，我們很高興看到客戶做得很好。如果客戶做得好，台積電就會做得好。當然，我們與他們合作並向他們出售我們的價值。從根本上講，我們想說，我們能夠在人工智能半導體組件方面佔據並佔領大部分市場。我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. What about the part about 50% CAGR, how much of that is volume? And should we expect some pricing element in that long-term growth?

是的。複合年增長率為 50% 的部分怎麼樣，其中有多少是銷量？我們是否應該期待長期增長中存在一些定價因素？

Yes. So the second part is about close to 50% CAGR for AI -- sorry, server with AI processor. How much of that is volume? How much of that is price?

是的。因此，第二部分的 AI 複合年增長率約為 50%——抱歉，是帶有 AI 處理器的服務器。其中體積是多少？其中價格是多少？

We cannot separate out, but let me share with you again we talk to the customers and because we have a major share of all the leading-edge technology node, so we know that we can make our judgment. And so we forecast of 50% CAGR. How much of that is on the front-end, back-end or others, I'm not able to share with you about it. But let me assure you that TSMC is going to capture a major portion of the market in terms of semiconductor component.

我們不能單獨出來，但讓我再次與您分享我們與客戶交談，因為我們擁有所有領先技術節點的主要份額，所以我們知道我們可以做出我們的判斷。因此我們預測複合年增長率為 50%。其中有多少是在前端、後端或其他方面，我無法與您分享。但我向您保證，台積電將佔領半導體元件市場的主要部分。

Okay, Charles?

好吧，查爾斯？

Can I ask you the second question?

我可以問你第二個問題嗎？

Last question.

最後一個問題。

Yes. No problem. The last one. May I ask about the CapEx, I think I heard a comment maybe from Wendell about our dollar amount CapEx started to go into level off from here. And I think the management used to point us, analysts, to look at the 2010 to 2013 period with a high capital intensity. CapEx actually went up $3 billion to $4 billion per year to $10 billion. And actually, after that, TSMC CapEx did level off around $10 billion level for roughly 5 years until 2019.

是的。沒問題。最後一個。我可以問一下資本支出嗎？我想我聽到了溫德爾的評論，說我們的資本支出從這裡開始趨於平穩。我認為管理層曾經指示我們分析師以高資本密集度來看待 2010 年至 2013 年期間。資本支出實際上每年增加 30 億至 40 億美元，達到 100 億美元。事實上，在那之後的大約 5 年裡，台積電的資本支出確實穩定在 100 億美元左右的水平，直到 2019 年。

By telling us the CapEx is probably going to level off, are you telling us or are you alluding to maybe there will be some steady-state CapEx numbers going forward maybe starting from '24 or '25 around $30 billion each level? That's just a clarification on that comment of leveling off.

通過告訴我們資本支出可能會趨於平穩，您是在告訴我們還是在暗示未來可能會有一些穩定的資本支出數字，可能從 24 年或 25 年開始，每個水平約為 300 億美元？這只是對平穩評論的澄清。

Okay. So Charles' second question is on our CapEx. He wants to know capital spending starting to level off. I think Wendell said in the next several years, so not any specific. But what does that mean? Is it going to stay around the $30-some billion level? Or what does that mean by spending leveling off?

好的。查爾斯的第二個問題是關於我們的資本支出。他想知道資本支出開始趨於平穩。我認為溫德爾說的是未來幾年，所以沒有具體的。但是，這是什麼意思？會保持在 300 億美元左右嗎？或者支出趨於平穩意味著什麼？

Yes. The -- Charles, as I mentioned in the past few years, our CapEx increased dramatically from $10 billion to $36 billion last year. As we start to harvest those investments, the increase in CapEx will be slower than before. That's what I mean by leveling off.

是的。 Charles，正如我在過去幾年中提到的，我們的資本支出去年從 100 億美元大幅增加到 360 億美元。當我們開始收穫這些投資時，資本支出的增長將比以前慢。這就是我所說的趨於平穩的意思。

Okay. All right, Charles? Okay. Operator, this concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the call will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which you can be -- find and available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

好的。好吧，查爾斯？好的。接線員，我們的問答環節到此結束。在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起 30 分鐘內即可重播電話會議。該文字記錄將在 24 小時後提供，您可以通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 找到並獲取該文字記錄。

So thank you for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay well. Have a good rest of the summer, and we hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都繼續保持健康。祝你夏天好好休息，我們希望你下個季度再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。