台積電 (TSMC) 報告稱,由於宏觀經濟狀況疲軟和終端市場需求疲軟,2023 年第一季度的收入和毛利率下降。
該公司預計 7 納米利用率將緩慢復甦,而射頻和連接等專業技術將長期推動需求。
台積電的3納米技術在半導體行業率先量產,良率良好,其N3有望在2023年得到充分利用,同時支持HPC和智能手機應用。
台積電的 N2 技術開發進展順利,有望在 2025 年實現量產。
台積電正在擴大其全球製造足跡,以增加客戶信任度、擴大其未來增長潛力並吸引更多全球人才。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.
(外文)大家下午好,歡迎參加台積電2023年第一季財報電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su,也是今天的主持人。
TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. (Operator Instructions) The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the first quarter 2023, followed by our guidance for the second quarter 2023. Afterwards, Mr. Huang, and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open the line for questions and answers.
台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 透過現場音訊網路直播舉辦我們的財報電話會議,您也可以在該網站下載財報發布資料。 (操作員指示)今天活動的形式如下:首先,台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德爾先生將總結我們在 2023 年第一季度的運營情況,然後是我們對 2023 年第二季度的指導。先生和台積電執行長C.C.魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。然後我們將開通問答熱線。
As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.
像往常一樣,我想提醒大家,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性,這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。
And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.
現在我想將電話轉給台積電首席財務官黃文德爾先生,以獲取營運摘要和當前季度指引。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the first quarter 2023. After that, I will provide the guidance for the second quarter 2023.
謝謝你,傑夫。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從 2023 年第一季的財務亮點開始。
First quarter revenue decreased 18.7% sequentially in NT or 16.1% in U.S. dollar as our first quarter business was impacted by weakening macroeconomic conditions and softening end market demand, which led customers to adjust their demand accordingly. Gross margin decreased 5.9 percentage points sequentially to 56.3%, mainly reflecting lower capacity utilization and a less favorable foreign exchange rate, partially offset by more stringent cost controls.
第一季營收按新台幣計算環比下降 18.7%,以美元計算環比下降 16.1%,因為我們第一季業務受到宏觀經濟狀況疲軟和終端市場需求疲軟的影響,導致客戶相應調整需求。毛利率較上月下降 5.9 個百分點至 56.3%,主要反映產能利用率下降和匯率不利,但部分被更嚴格的成本控制所抵銷。
Total operating expenses accounted for 10.8% of net revenue, which is lower than the 12% implied in our first quarter guidance, mainly due to stringent expense control and lower employee profit sharing. Operating margin was 45.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Overall, our first quarter EPS was TWD 7.98 and ROE was 27.5%.
總營運費用佔淨收入的 10.8%,低於我們第一季指引中暗示的 12%,這主要是由於嚴格的費用控制和較低的員工利潤分享。營業利益率為 45.5%,較上季下降 6.5 個百分點。整體而言,我們第一季 EPS 為新台幣 7.98,ROE 為 27.5%。
Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 31% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, while 7-nanometer accounted for 20%. Advanced Technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 51% of wafer revenue.
現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。 5奈米製程技術貢獻了第一季晶圓收入的31%,而7奈米製程技術則佔20%。先進技術(定義為 7 奈米及以下)佔晶圓收入的 51%。
Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC declined 14% quarter-over-quarter and accounted for 44% of our first quarter revenue. Smartphone declined 27% to account for 34%. IoT declined 19% to account for 9%. Automotive increased 5% to account for 7% and DCE decreased 5% to account for 2%.
接下來是平台的營收貢獻。 HPC 環比下降 14%,占我們第一季營收的 44%。智慧型手機佔比下降 27%,降至 34%。 IoT 下降 19%,佔 9%。汽車產業成長 5%,佔 7%;大商所下降 5%,佔 2%。
Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.59 trillion or USD 52 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities decreased by TWD 71 billion, mainly due to the decrease of TWD 65 billion in accounts payable. On financial ratio, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 2 days to 34 days, while days of inventory increased 3 days to 96 days.
繼續看資產負債表。第一季結束時,我們的現金和有價證券為新台幣 1.59 兆,即 520 億美元。負債方面,流動負債減少710億元新台幣,主要是應付帳款減少650億元新台幣。財務比率方面,應收帳款週轉天數減少2天至34天,存貨天數增加3天至96天。
Regarding cash flow and CapEx. During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 385 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 302 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 71 billion for second quarter 2022 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 42 billion to TWD 1.39 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditures totaled $9.94 billion.
關於現金流和資本支出。第一季度,我們從營運中產生了約 3,850 億新台幣的現金,資本支出支出了 3,020 億新台幣,並派發了 710 億新台幣作為 2022 年第二季度的現金股息。總體而言,本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 420 億新台幣,達到 1.39 兆新台幣。以美元計算,我們第一季的資本支出總計 99.4 億美元。
I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. We expect our business in the second quarter to continue to be impacted by customers' further inventory adjustment. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between to USD 15.2 billion and USD 16 billion, which represents a 6.7% sequential decline at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30.4, gross margin is expected to be between 52% and 54%, operating margin between 39.5% and 41.5%. This concludes my financial presentation.
我已經完成了財務摘要。現在讓我們轉向當前季度的指導。我們預計第二季的業務將繼續受到客戶進一步庫存調整的影響。根據目前的業務前景,我們預計第二季營收將在 152 億美元至 160 億美元之間,季減 6.7%。基於1美元兌30.4新台幣的匯率假設,毛利率預計在52%至54%之間,營業利益率介於39.5%至41.5%之間。我的財務報告到此結束。
Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our first quarter '23 and second quarter '23 profitability. Compared to fourth quarter, our first quarter gross margin decreased by 590 basis points sequentially to 56.3% primarily due to a lower capacity utilization. Compared to our first quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end of the range provided 3 months ago, by 80 basis points, mainly due to more stringent cost control efforts.
現在讓我談談我們的關鍵訊息。我將首先對我們 23 年第一季和 23 年第二季的獲利能力發表一些評論。與第四季相比,我們第一季的毛利率較上季下降 590 個基點至 56.3%,主要是由於產能利用率較低。與我們第一季的指導相比,我們的實際毛利率超出了 3 個月前提供的範圍上限 80 個基點,這主要是由於更嚴格的成本控制措施。
We have just guided our second quarter gross margin to be 53% at the midpoint mainly due to a lower capacity utilization rate and higher electricity costs in Taiwan. After last year's electricity price increase of 15% in the second half of 2022, TSMC's electricity price in Taiwan has increased by another 17% starting April 1 this year. This is expected to take out 60 basis points from our second quarter gross margin.
我們剛剛預計第二季毛利率為 53% 的中點,主要是由於台灣的產能利用率較低和電力成本較高。繼去年2022年下半年電價上漲15%後,台積電在台灣的電價從今年4月1日起又上漲了17%。預計這將使我們第二季的毛利率減少 60 個基點。
We expect the impact from higher electricity costs to continue throughout the second half of this year and dilute our full year gross margin by about 50 basis points. In 2023, our gross margin faces challenges from lower capacity utilization due to semiconductor cyclicality, the ramp-up of N3, overseas fab expansion and inflationary costs, including higher utility costs in Taiwan.
我們預計電費上漲的影響將持續到今年下半年,並將導致我們全年毛利率下降約 50 個基點。 2023年,我們的毛利率面臨半導體週期性、N3產能增加、海外晶圓廠擴張和通膨成本(包括台灣公用事業成本上升)導致的產能利用率下降的挑戰。
To manage our profitability in 2023, we will work diligently on internal cost improvement efforts while continuing to sell our value. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, which we have no control over, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.
為了管理 2023 年的獲利能力,我們將努力改善內部成本,同時繼續銷售我們的價值。排除我們無法控制的匯率影響,我們繼續預測長期毛利率可以達到53%以上。
Next, let me talk about 2023 capital budget. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years. As I've stated before, given the near-term uncertainties, we continue to manage our business prudently and tighten up our capital spending where appropriate. That said, our commitment to support customers' structural growth remains unchanged, and our disciplined CapEx and capacity planning remains based on the long-term market demand profile. Thus we expect our 2023 capital budget to be between USD 32 billion and USD 36 billion.
接下來我來講一下2023年的資本預算。每年,我們的資本支出都用於預測未來幾年的成長。正如我之前所說,鑑於近期的不確定性,我們將繼續審慎管理業務,並視情況收緊資本支出。也就是說,我們支持客戶結構性成長的承諾保持不變,我們嚴格的資本支出和產能規劃仍是基於長期市場需求狀況。因此,我們預計 2023 年的資本預算將在 320 億美元至 360 億美元之間。
With this level of CapEx spending in 2023, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend on both an annual and quarterly basis. We will continue to work closely with our customers to plan our long-term capacity and invest in leading edge, and specialty technologies to support their growth while delivering profitable growth to our shareholders.
鑑於 2023 年的資本支出水平,我們重申台積電仍致力於每年和每季可持續且穩定增加的現金股利。我們將繼續與客戶密切合作,規劃我們的長期產能並投資於領先的專業技術,以支持他們的成長,同時為我們的股東帶來獲利成長。
Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.
現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand and inventory. 3 months ago, we said we expect fabless semiconductor inventory to start gradually reduce in 4Q 2022 and we forecast a sharper reduction throughout the first half of 2023.
謝謝你,溫德爾。大家下午好。首先,讓我從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。 3 個月前,我們表示預計無晶圓廠半導體庫存將從 2022 年第四季開始逐漸減少,並預計 2023 年上半年將大幅減少。
However, due to weakening macroeconomic conditions and softening end market demand, fabless semiconductor inventory continued to increase in the fourth quarter and exited 2022 at a much higher level than we expected. In addition, the recovery in end market demand from China's reopening is also lower than our expectation. Therefore, the fabless semiconductor inventory adjustment in first half '23 is taking longer than our prior expectation. It may extend into third quarter this year before rebalancing to a healthier level.
然而,由於宏觀經濟狀況疲軟和終端市場需求疲軟,無晶圓廠半導體庫存在第四季度繼續增加,並以遠高於我們預期的水平退出2022年。此外,中國重新開放帶來的終端市場需求復甦也低於我們的預期。因此,23 年上半年無晶圓廠半導體庫存調整的時間比我們之前的預期要長。它可能會延續到今年第三季度,然後再平衡到更健康的水平。
For the full year of 2023, we lower our forecast for the semiconductor market excluding memory to decline mid-single-digit percent, while foundry industry is forecast to decline high single-digit percent. We now expect our full year 2023 revenue to decline low to mid-single-digit percent in U.S. dollar terms, and our business to do better than both semiconductor ex-memory and foundry industries, supported by our strong technology leadership and differentiation.
對於 2023 年全年,我們下調了不包括記憶體在內的半導體市場下降中個位數百分比的預測,而代工產業預計將出現高個位數百分比的下降。我們現在預計,以美元計算,我們2023 年全年收入將下降低至中個位數百分比,並且在我們強大的技術領先地位和差異化的支持下,我們的業務將比半導體(存儲器除外)和代工業表現較好。
We concluded our first quarter with revenue of [USD 16.7 billion] (corrected by the company after the call), which is towards the low end of our guidance range, provided in U.S. dollar terms. Moving into second quarter 2023, we expect our business to continue to be impacted by customers' further inventory adjustment. We now expect our revenue in the first half of 2023 to decline by about 10% over the same period last year in U.S. dollar terms, as compared to mid- to high single-digit percent decline previously.
我們第一季的營收為 [167 億美元](公司在電話會議後修正),接近我們以美元計算的指導範圍的下限。進入 2023 年第二季度,我們預計我們的業務將繼續受到客戶進一步庫存調整的影響。我們現在預計,以美元計算,2023 年上半年我們的營收將比去年同期下降約 10%,而先前的下降幅度為中高個位數。
Having said that, we believe we are passing through the bottom of the cycle of TSMC business in the second quarter. While we forecast only a gradual recovery, for the semiconductor ex-memory industry in second half 2023, TSMC's business in the second half of this year is expected to be stronger than the first half, supported by customers' new product launches.
話雖如此,我們相信第二季我們正在經歷台積電業務週期的底部。雖然我們預計2023年下半年半導體(內存除外)產業只會逐步復甦,但在客戶新產品推出的支撐下,台積電今年下半年的業務預計將強於上半年。
Next, let me talk about our N3 and N3E status. Our 3-nanometer technology is the first in the semiconductor industry to high-volume production with good yield. As our customers' demand for N3 exceeds our ability to supply, we expect N3 to be fully utilized in 2023, supported by both HPC and smartphone applications. Sizable N3 revenue contribution is expected to start in third quarter and N3 will contribute mid-single-digit percentage of our total wafer revenue in 2023.
接下來說一下我們的N3和N3E狀態。我們的3奈米技術在半導體產業中率先實現大量生產,良率良好。由於客戶對 N3 的需求超出了我們的供應能力,我們預計 N3 將在 HPC 和智慧型手機應用程式的支援下於 2023 年充分利用。預計 N3 的營收貢獻將從第三季開始,到 2023 年,N3 將占我們晶圓總收入的中個位數百分比。
N3E will further extend our N3 family with enhanced performance, power and yield and offer complete platform support for both HPC and smartphone applications. N3E has passed the qualification and achieve performance and yield targets, and volume production is scheduled for second half '23. Despite the ongoing inventory correction, we continue to observe a high level of customer engagement at both N3 and N3E with the number of tape-outs more than 2x that of N5 in the first and second half year -- in the second year, I'm sorry.
N3E 將進一步擴展我們的 N3 系列,增強效能、功耗和產量,並為 HPC 和智慧型手機應用提供完整的平台支援。 N3E已通過資格認證並達到性能和良率目標,計劃於23年下半年量產。儘管庫存持續調整,我們仍然觀察到 N3 和 N3E 的客戶參與度很高,上半年和下半年的流片數量是 N5 的 2 倍以上 - 在第二年,我'對不起。
Our 3-nanometer technology is the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology. Thus we expect customers' strong multi-year demand for our 3-nanometer technologies and are confident that our 3-nanometer family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.
我們的 3 奈米技術是 PPA 和電晶體技術中最先進的半導體技術。因此,我們預計客戶對我們的 3 奈米技術的多年需求強勁,並相信我們的 3 奈米系列將成為台積電的另一個大型且持久的節點。
Now I will talk about our N2 status. Our N2 technology development is progressing well and on track for volume production in 2025. Our N2 will adopt nanosheet transistor structure to provide our customers with the best performance, cost and technology maturity. Our nanosheet technology has demonstrated excellent power efficiency and our N2 deliver full node performance and power benefits to address the increasing need for energy-efficient computing. At N2, we are observing a high level of customer interest and engagement from both HPC and the smartphone applications.
現在我就來談談我們的N2狀態。我們的N2技術開發進展順利,預計於2025年實現量產。我們的奈米片技術已展現出卓越的功效,而我們的 N2 則可提供完整的節點性能和功效,以滿足日益增長的節能運算需求。在 N2,我們觀察到客戶對 HPC 和智慧型手機應用程式的興趣和參與度很高。
Our 2-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in both density and energy efficiency when it is introduced, and will further extend our technology leadership well into the future.
我們的 2 奈米技術推出後,無論是在密度或能源效率方面都將成為業界最先進的半導體技術,並將進一步將我們的技術領先地位延伸到未來。
Finally, I will talk about TSMC's global footprint and talent development status. As we have said before, we are expanding our global manufacturing footprint to increase customer trust, expand our future growth potential and reach for more global talents.
最後,我會談談台積電的全球足跡和人才發展狀況。正如我們之前所說,我們正在擴大我們的全球製造足跡,以增加客戶信任、擴大我們未來的成長潛力並吸引更多全球人才。
In Arizona, despite some challenges in obtaining permits, our first fab is scheduled to begin production of N4 process technology in late 2024. In Japan, we are building a specialty technology fab, the volume production is scheduled for late 2024. In Europe, we are engaging with customers and partners to evaluate the possibility of building a specialty fab focusing on automotive specific technologies, based on the demand from customers and level of government support. In China, we are expanding 28-nanometer in Nanjing as planned to support our customers in China, and we continue to follow all rules and regulations fully.
在亞利桑那州,儘管在獲得許可方面存在一些挑戰,但我們的第一座晶圓廠計劃於2024 年底開始生產N4 製程技術。年底。在中國,我們正在按計劃在南京擴展 28 奈米,以支援我們在中國的客戶,並且我們將繼續完全遵守所有規則和規定。
At the same time, we continue to invest in Taiwan and expand our capacity to support our customers' growth. In Kaohsiung, our fab construction continues, but we have adjusted our previous 28-nanometer expansion plan to now focus on capacity expansion for more advanced nodes, and we will remain flexible going forward.
同時,我們繼續在台灣投資並擴大產能,以支持客戶的成長。在高雄,我們的晶圓廠建設仍在繼續,但我們調整了先前的28奈米擴建計劃,現在專注於更先進節點的產能擴張,未來我們將保持靈活的態度。
In terms of talent development, a key to TSMC's success is adherence to our core values of integrity, commitment, innovation and customer trust and our discipline and spirit of working together as one team.
在人才培育方面,台積電成功的關鍵在於堅守誠信、承諾、創新、客戶信任的核心價值觀,以及團隊合作的紀律和精神。
In both the U.S. and Japan, we recruiting from the top local colleges and universities and our progress is well on track. We have hired more than 900 US employees to-date in Arizona and more than 370 in Japan. We also plan to hire more than 6,000 employees in Taiwan in 2023. All of our hirings are to support our future growth potential.
在美國和日本,我們都從當地頂尖的學院和大學進行招聘,我們的進展順利。迄今為止,我們已在亞利桑那州僱用了 900 多名美國員工,在日本僱用了 370 多名員工。我們也計劃在 2023 年在台灣招募超過 6,000 名員工。
In addition to providing extensive training program for new overseas employees, many of them are brought to Taiwan for "hands-on" experience in our fabs so that they can further their technical skills, while being immersed in TSMC's operational environment and culture. As we expand our global footprint, our priority will continue to be to identify, attract and hire talent whose core values and principles are aligned with TSMC's, so that we can establish TSMC culture in all our employees, no matter where we operate.
除了為新海外員工提供廣泛的培訓計劃外,他們中的許多人還被帶到台灣,在我們的晶圓廠進行「實踐」經驗,以便他們能夠進一步提高他們的技術技能,同時沉浸在台積電的營運環境和文化中。隨著我們擴大全球足跡,我們的首要任務將繼續是識別、吸引和聘用核心價值和原則與台積電一致的人才,以便我們能夠在所有員工中建立台積電文化,無論我們在哪裡運作。
This concludes our key message. Thank you for your attention.
我們的關鍵訊息到此結束。感謝您的關注。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements. Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session.
謝謝你,C.C.我們準備好的演講到此結束。在我們開始問答環節之前,我想提醒大家,請限制您的提問。 (操作員說明) 現在讓我們開始問答環節。
Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line?
接線員,我們可以接聽線路上的第一個呼叫者嗎?
Operator
Operator
Yes, Jeff. The first one to ask a question, Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.
是的,傑夫。第一個提問的是來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
First of all, can I talk -- can I ask a bit about the near-term demand dynamics? Could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing by segments? Is the inventory correction trend largely similar across HPC, smartphone, IoT and auto? Or are you seeing any different dynamics in these segments, especially auto, you saw some shortage still in the last quarter.
首先,我可以談談近期的需求動態嗎?您能談談您所看到的細分市場嗎? HPC、智慧型手機、物聯網和汽車的庫存調整趨勢是否大致相似?或者您是否看到這些領域有任何不同的動態,特別是汽車領域,上個季度仍然存在一些短缺。
And maybe also talk a little bit about 7-nanometer. Previously, we had an expectation, 7-nanometer will start recovering in second half of this year. Do we think 7-nanometer will still be recovering in second half? That's my first question.
也許還可以談談 7 奈米。此前,我們預計7納米將在今年下半年開始復甦。我們認為下半年7納米還會復甦嗎?這是我的第一個問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Let me -- please allow me to summarize your first question. So Gokul's first question is more focusing on the near-term dynamics. He wants to know basically about the inventory trend across different segments and also the end demand status across the different segments, including auto. And then also, what about particularly for TSMC 7-nanometer status in terms of the utilization recovery.
好的。謝謝你,戈庫爾。請容許我總結一下你的第一個問題。因此,戈庫爾的第一個問題更關注近期動態。他想基本上了解不同細分市場的庫存趨勢以及包括汽車在內的不同細分市場的最終需求狀況。另外,特別是台積電 7 奈米的利用率恢復情況如何。
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Okay. Gokul, let me answer the question. We observed the PC and smartphone market continue to be soft at the present time, while automotive demand is holding steady for TSMC and it is showing signs of softening into second half of 2023. I'm talking about automotive. On the other hand, we have recently observed incremental upside in AI-related demand, which helps the ongoing inventory digestion. What is the second question?
好的。戈庫爾,讓我來回答這個問題。我們觀察到,目前 PC 和智慧型手機市場持續疲軟,而台積電的汽車需求保持穩定,並且到 2023 年下半年顯示出疲軟的跡象。另一方面,我們最近觀察到人工智慧相關需求的增量上升,這有助於持續的庫存消化。第二個問題是什麼?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
The second part is on 7-nanometer. We had really -- previously said 7-nanometer utilization is lower. Do we expect this to pick up or recover in the second half?
第二部分是7奈米。我們之前確實說過 7 奈米利用率較低。我們預計下半年這種情況會回升或恢復嗎?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
It will be recovered but slowly. As I said, most of the N6 and N7's technology loading still in HPC and smartphone. However, looking into the future, some of the specialties such as RF, connectivity, WiFi, all those kind of things will start to build up the loading their demand. And we expect in the long term, 7-nanometer's loading will become more healthier. Did I answer the question?
它會恢復,但速度很慢。正如我所說,N6和N7的大部分技術負載仍然在HPC和智慧型手機上。然而,展望未來,一些專業,如射頻、連接、WiFi,所有這些東西將開始增加他們的需求。而且我們預計從長遠來看,7奈米的負載會變得更加健康。我回答問題了嗎?
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Yes. That's very clear. My second question, I just wanted to get TSMC's opinion on competitive landscape. Your IDM competitor is getting into foundry. Intel has been claiming that they will be attaining process parity and then process leadership by 2025 and talking about engaging with several fabless companies. How does TSMC see this competitive threat?
是的。這非常清楚。我的第二個問題,我只是想聽聽台積電對競爭格局的看法。您的 IDM 競爭對手正在進入代工領域。英特爾一直聲稱,到 2025 年,他們將實現工藝平等,然後實現工藝領先,並正在討論與多家無晶圓廠公司合作。台積電如何看待這種競爭威脅?
And how do you benchmark TSMC N3 and N2, which is coming in 2025 with Intel's offerings over the next, let's say, 2 to 3 years? And maybe I think TSMC has not commented about foundry market share for quite some time. So could you talk a little bit about what you see, N3 market share, in the next couple of years with TSMC now that you're ramping up that node as well.
您如何對台積電 N3 和 N2 進行基準測試,後者將於 2025 年與英特爾的產品一起在未來(比如說 2 到 3 年)內推出?也許我認為台積電已經有一段時間沒有對代工市場份額發表評論了。那麼,您能否談談您在未來幾年與台積電合作所看到的 N3 市場份額,因為您也正在提升該節點。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Let me summate your second question. A lot of it is related to the competitive landscape. I think Gokul's question is specifically in terms of IDM that has been claimed meaning it will achieve process parity in terms of technology with TSMC and absolute process leadership.
好的。謝謝你,戈庫爾。讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。這很大程度上與競爭格局有關。我認為 Gokul 的問題具體是針對 IDM 而言的,據稱這意味著它將在技術方面與台積電實現工藝對等,並具有絕對的工藝領先地位。
So he wants to know and they're also talking about engaging with several large fabless customers. So Gokul would like to know how do we see or comment on this competitive threat. How do we benchmark our N3 or our N2 process technologies versus this IDM's offerings for the next 2 to 3 years. And lastly, if we have any comment on what market share we believe we can achieve.
所以他想知道,他們也在討論與幾家大型無晶圓廠客戶合作。因此,戈庫爾想知道我們如何看待或評論這種競爭威脅。未來 2 到 3 年,我們如何將我們的 N3 或 N2 製程技術與該 IDM 的產品進行基準測試。最後,如果我們對我們認為可以實現的市場份額有什麼評論的話。
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
That's a long question. Gokul, this is C.C. Wei again. Let me say that, as usual, we don't comment on our competitors' status, but then we emphasize again on our 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer. Our 3-nanometer is the first in the semiconductor industry to high-volume production. And I believe it is the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology.
這是一個很長的問題。戈庫爾,這是 C.C.又是偉。我想說的是,像往常一樣,我們不評論競爭對手的狀況,但接下來我們再次強調我們的3奈米和2奈米。我們的3奈米是半導體產業中第一個實現大批量生產的。我相信它是 PPA 和電晶體技術中最先進的半導體技術。
And for 2-nanometer technology, that will, again, to be the most elegant semiconductor technology in the industry and when we introduce into mass production. And this one, we're fully confident that we will further extend our leadership position well into the future. As for the market share, we are very confident that we continue to have a very high market share. And I cannot tell you that the real number, but very high percentage.
對於 2 奈米技術,當我們引入大規模生產時,這將再次成為業界最先進的半導體技術。在這一點上,我們完全有信心在未來進一步擴大我們的領導地位。至於市場份額,我們非常有信心繼續擁有非常高的市場份額。我不能告訴你真實的數字,但比例非常高。
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Okay. Maybe if I ask C.C. for that, if I ask, is N3 -- your expectation that N3 market share will be higher than N5 at the same time based on what you see today?
好的。也許如果我問 C.C.如果我問,是N3——根據您今天所看到的情況,您預計N3的市場份額將同時高於N5?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Very hard to answer your question, but let me say that it's well very similar in a very high percentage.
很難回答你的問題,但我要說的是,它們的相似度非常高。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please.
好的。謝謝你,戈庫爾。接線員,我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎?
Operator
Operator
The next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.
下一位提問者是來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
I want to ask about for the machine learning AI, which management has been saying that, that is a key growth driver. Can we have more quantitative implication to TSMC? What is the dollar content per server or how big the addressable market for TSMC in 2025? Is the recent new AI or ChatGPT, the business already embedded in your long-term growth target, which is 15% to 20%? Or can we see some incremental upside?
我想問機器學習人工智慧,管理階層一直說這是一個關鍵的成長動力。我們能否對台積電有更多的定量影響?每台伺服器的價值是多少,或是 2025 年台積電的潛在市場有多大?最近新推出的 AI 或 ChatGPT 業務是否已納入您的長期成長目標(15% 至 20%)?或者我們能看到一些增量的好處嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Bruce, thank you. So Bruce's first question is around, I guess, AI and machine learning. He wants to know if we have any quantitative numbers to give in terms of, for example, dollar content -- sorry, semiconductor content per server, dollar value or in terms of the addressable TAM. How do we see this growth of this market? And have we already embedded this into our forecast. Is that correct, Bruce?
好的。布魯斯,謝謝你。我想,布魯斯的第一個問題是關於人工智慧和機器學習的。他想知道我們是否有任何定量數據可以給出,例如,美元含量——抱歉,每台伺服器的半導體含量、美元價值或可尋址的 TAM。我們如何看待這個市場的成長?我們是否已經將其納入我們的預測中?這是正確的嗎,布魯斯?
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
That's right.
這是正確的。
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Bruce, let me answer this question. We certainly, we have observed an incremental increase in AI-related demand. It will also help the ongoing inventory digestion. The trend is very positive for TSMC. But today, if you ask me to quantitatively to say that how much of the amount increase or what is the dollar content in the server, it's too early to say. It still continue to be developed. And ChatGPT right now reinforce the already stronger conviction that we have in HPC and AI as a structural megatrend for TSMC's business growth in the future.
布魯斯,讓我來回答這個問題。當然,我們觀察到人工智慧相關需求的增量成長。它還將有助於持續的庫存消化。這一趨勢對台積電來說非常積極。但今天,如果你讓我定量地說增加了多少金額或伺服器中的美元含量是多少,現在說還為時過早。它仍在繼續發展。 ChatGPT 現在更加堅定了我們對 HPC 和 AI 作為台積電未來業務成長的結構性大趨勢的堅定信念。
Whether this one has been included in our previous announcement is said that we have a 15% to 20% CAGR, the answer is probably partly yes, because of -- for server, we have accelerated into our consideration. But this ChatGPT is a large language model is a new application.
這是否包括在我們之前的公告中,據說我們有 15% 到 20% 的複合年增長率,答案可能部分是肯定的,因為——對於伺服器,我們已經加快了我們的考慮。但是這個ChatGPT是一個大型語言模型,是一個新的應用。
And we haven't really have a kind of a number that put into our CAGR. But is definitely, as I said, it really reinforced our already strong conviction that HPC and AI will give us a much higher opportunities in the future.
我們還沒有真正掌握複合年增長率的數字。但正如我所說,這確實增強了我們本已堅定的信念,即 HPC 和人工智慧將在未來為我們帶來更高的機會。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Bruce. Does that answer your first question? Yes, sorry, go ahead.
好吧,布魯斯。這回答了你的第一個問題嗎?是的,抱歉,請繼續。
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Yes. Yes, I want to move on to the different topic, which is the cash dividend. I mean TSMC distribute like -- dividend policy was 70% of the free cash flow. And we do see the free cash flow is getting stronger, especially CapEx growth rate is slower, especially for next year. Can we expect TSMC to maintain the dividend policy, which is 70% of the free cash flow next year? Or we would like to improve our balance sheet given the current rate hike environment.
是的。是的,我想談談不同的話題,那就是現金股利。我的意思是台積電的分配方式是──股利政策佔自由現金流的 70%。我們確實看到自由現金流正在變得越來越強,特別是資本支出成長率正在放緩,尤其是明年。我們能否預期台積電維持明年自由現金流70%的股利政策?或者考慮到當前的升息環境,我們希望改善我們的資產負債表。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Bruce. So Bruce's second question is around our cash dividend policy. He notes that in the past, we have said our cash dividend will be based on 70% of free cash flow distribution. But his question is, as our CapEx is slowing, our free cash flow is going stronger. Do we still adhere to 70% of free cash flow or because of the environment, are we more focused on, I think, Bruce, in terms of maintaining a -- improving our balance sheet strength.
好的。謝謝你,布魯斯。布魯斯的第二個問題是關於我們的現金股利政策。他指出,過去我們曾說過我們的現金股利將基於自由現金流分配的 70%。但他的問題是,隨著我們的資本支出放緩,我們的自由現金流正在變得更強。我們是否仍然堅持 70% 的自由現金流,還是因為環境的原因,我認為,布魯斯,我們是否更專注於維持——改善我們的資產負債表實力。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay, Bruce. This is Wendell. Let me make a few comments on the dividends. TSMC is committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing dividends. During the periods of high capital intensity or high capital investment, more of the focus is on "sustainable." But when we start to capture and harvest the capital investment spend, the commitment is -- or the focus is more towards "steadily increasing."
好吧,布魯斯。這是溫德爾。讓我對股息發表一些評論。台積電致力於可持續且穩定增加的股利。在資本密集度高或資本投資高的時期,更多的焦點是「永續」。但是,當我們開始捕捉和收穫資本投資支出時,我們的承諾是——或者說重點更多是「穩定成長」。
The 70% ratio is a guideline. Let me give you an example. If in the particular year, the free cash flow is much lower because of higher CapEx or lower profit than the -- to maintain a sustainable dividend, the ratio of free cash flow to be dispersed could be higher. And on the other hand, in a year where free cash flow is particularly high, the ratio can be 70%, but it can be lower because we need to look forward into the year behind that specific year, and to make sure it is sustainable. Okay, does that answer your question?
70% 的比例是一個指導方針。讓我舉個例子。如果在特定年份,由於資本支出較高或利潤較低,自由現金流量要低得多——為了維持可持續的股息,要分散的自由現金流量的比例可能會更高。另一方面,在自由現金流特別高的年份,這個比例可以是70%,但也可以更低,因為我們需要展望該特定年份之後的年份,並確保它是可持續的。好吧,這回答了你的問題嗎?
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Yes. Yes. But if we do see a comfortable range about the free cash flow, we still expect like reasonable high payout ratio, right?
是的。是的。但如果我們確實看到自由現金流處於一個舒適的範圍,我們仍然期望合理的高股息率,對吧?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Yes. Yes. As I said, the principle is 70%, but it has to be sustainable and steadily increasing.
是的。是的。我剛才說了,原則是70%,但必須是可持續的、穩定成長的。
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
I understand.
我明白。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Thank you, Bruce. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please.
謝謝你,布魯斯。接線員,我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎?
Operator
Operator
Next one to ask questions, Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse.
下一位提問者是瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
I wanted to ask a question just on the CapEx in 2 parts. First, as you look at the 3-nanometer where you mentioned supply still short of demand and have a lot of applications coming in. Do you have plans for potential reuse of 5-nanometer in the next 1 to 2 years as you bring up more of the 3-nanometer? And then the second part of the question, I wanted to ask more on that Kaohsiung fab shift. If you could go through why the plan to pull back on 28. And then with the intention for where you would shift that investment. Because I know you did cancel the 7-nanometer for that line. So if you could discuss the change you're making to Kaohsiung and does it affect the timing to ramp that fab?
我想分兩部分問一個關於資本支出的問題。首先,當你看看 3 奈米時,你提到供應仍然供不應求,並且有很多應用程式進來。 ?然後問題的第二部分,我想問更多有關高雄晶圓廠轉移的問題。如果您能詳細說明為什麼要取消 28 日的計劃。因為我知道你們確實取消了那條線的 7 奈米製程。那麼,您是否可以討論一下您對高雄所做的改變,這是否會影響該工廠的擴建時間?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Randy. So Randy's first question is kind of related to our CapEx and capacity plan. His question partly is in terms of C.C. noted that the N3 demand exceeds our ability to supply. So he's asking, will we consider to reuse or convert tools -- N5 tools to N3 in the next few years. And also, he wants to know related to our plans in Kaohsiung. What is the thinking or the reasoning for pulling back on the 28-nanometer expansion in Kaohsiung?
好的。謝謝你,蘭迪。蘭迪的第一個問題與我們的資本支出和產能計劃有關。他的問題部分是針對 C.C.指出 N3 的需求超出了我們的供應能力。所以他問,我們是否會考慮在未來幾年內重複使用或轉換工具——N5 工具到 N3。另外,他也想了解我們在高雄的計畫。高雄延後28奈米擴產的想法或理由是什麼?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Okay, Randy. You got a very good question about whether we converted some of the N5's capacity to N3 because N3 today, we are short of support to our customer. Instead of saying that convert N5 capacity to N3, let me say that we developed a strategy and a methodology to make some of the N3's tool can be supported by N5. And we take this kind of flexibility into our consideration so that we can fulfill our commitment to support our customer in N3 as much as possible. Although still not enough, but we are doing that. So that answer one of your -- the first part of your question.
好吧,蘭迪。您提出了一個很好的問題,即我們是否將 N5 的部分容量轉換為 N3,因為今天的 N3,我們缺乏對客戶的支援。與其說把N5的能力轉換成N3,不如說我們制定了一個策略和方法,讓N3的一些工具可以得到N5的支援。我們將這種靈活性納入考慮範圍,以便我們能夠履行盡可能支持 N3 客戶的承諾。雖然還不夠,但我們正在這樣做。這就是你問題的第一部分的答案。
You asked about Kaohsiung's plan. Let me say that we look at the market situation today, and we are going to build -- initially the 28 nanometer's demand is so high so that we have to put Kaohsiung into our consideration. However, the market situation is so dynamic, and we look at our plan. One of the plan is in Japan, we build a new fab for 28 nanometer's specialty. By the way, TSMC expand the mature node's capacity or for specialties. We don't increase capacity just for pure logic application. The one, no, we don't do. So in order to avoid some of the overcapacity. So we built one in Japan. We're also expanding our capacity, 28-nanometer capacity in Nanjing. That's the second one. And then we are considering of the Europe. That might be the third one for automotive application.
你問到高雄的計劃。我說我們看今天的市場狀況,我們要建造──最初28奈米的需求這麼高,所以我們必須把高雄納入考慮範圍。然而,市場情況如此瞬息萬變,我們來看看我們的計劃。其中一個計劃是在日本,我們為28奈米專業建造一座新的晶圓廠。順便說一下,台積電擴大成熟節點的產能還是為了專業。我們不只是為了純粹邏輯應用而增加容量。第一,不,我們不這樣做。所以為了避免一些產能過剩。所以我們在日本建造了一個。我們也正在擴大南京的 28 奈米產能。這是第二個。然後我們正在考慮歐洲。這可能是汽車應用的第三個。
Put all 3 together, we don't think today that Kaohsiung's -- if we build 28-nanometer, probably it won't be kind of financially feasible. So we diverted now adjusted to become a more advanced node, which we are still in shortage. And Kaohsiung is so close to Tainan so that we can have more flexibility in between. Randy, did that answer your question?
將這三者放在一起,我們認為今天高雄的——如果我們製造 28 奈米,可能在經濟上不可行。所以我們現在改行調整成為一個更先進的節點,這也是我們所欠缺的。而且高雄離台南很近,所以我們可以更靈活地往返。蘭迪,這回答了你的問題嗎?
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes. No, that's helpful. It sounds like it will be very much advanced capacity than like the 5, 3 and below. And just -- maybe I have one follow-up on the first question is on the CapEx framework. With the expectation second half kind of rebound with the share gains comes through considering the new nodes more capital-intensive, should we think of this CapEx having an up direction as we look ahead to next year?
是的。不,這很有幫助。聽起來它的容量比 5、3 及以下的要先進得多。也許我對第一個問題有一個後續的行動是關於資本支出架構。考慮到新節點資本更加密集,預計下半年股價將反彈,展望明年,我們是否應該認為資本支出有上升方向?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Randy, I'll allow this to be a follow-up, but Randy's question is basically, well, considering the second half business will be stronger. I think, Randy, basically, you're asking, we have provided the guidance range of between $32 billion to $36 billion. Are you asking could that be upside or revised higher, is that correct?
好的。所以蘭迪,我將允許這是一個後續行動,但蘭迪的問題基本上是,考慮到下半年的業務將會更加強勁。我認為,蘭迪,基本上,您問的是,我們提供了 320 億美元至 360 億美元之間的指導範圍。您是在問這是否會向上或修正更高,這是正確的嗎?
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes, more the framework into next year since this is more kind of prudent management, a bit recessionary.
是的,更多的是明年的框架,因為這是一種更審慎的管理,有點衰退。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Randy, let me answer that. As we stated before, every year, our CapEx is spent for the opportunities in the future years. So although there are short-term cyclicality in the industry, but we believe if the structural long-term demand is there, and the future opportunities is there, and we will continue to invest. That will be the framework that we can provide to you.
蘭迪,讓我回答。正如我們之前所說,每年我們的資本支出都會用於尋找未來幾年的機會。所以雖然產業有短期週期性,但我們相信如果結構性長期需求有,未來機會有,我們就會繼續投資。這將是我們可以為您提供的框架。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Randy. You have a quick second question.
好吧,蘭迪。你有第二個問題。
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes, I'll do the quick second. So for 2-nanometer, if you could clarify the ramp, do you expect this steep ramp to be in 2025? Or is it more 2026? And do you also view that ramp being much more with the SoIC, the back-end integration chiplet?
是的,我會快速進行第二次。因此,對於 2 奈米,如果您能澄清斜坡,您預計這個陡峭的斜坡會在 2025 年出現嗎?還是更2026年了?您是否也認為 SoC(後端整合小晶片)的提升幅度更大?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Randy, second question is on 2-nanometer. We have said volume production in 2025. Will the large volume be in '25 or '26 as part of this question. And does this mean you will go hand-in-hand, I guess, with SoIC and advanced packaging?
好的。 Randy,第二個問題是關於 2 奈米的。我們已經說過2025年量產。我想,這是否意味著您將與 SoIC 和先進封裝齊頭並進?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Randy, let me answer the question. 2-nanometer technology definitely will start to ramp in 2025. And you asked about the volume. The volume in 2026 certainly is much higher than 2025 because 2025 is the first year. But saying that, I mean that we are having HPC customer and the smartphone customer now engaged with N2 and what we'll be ramping up in 2025. Now whether it's related to chiplet or not, it depends on customers' product and their plan. And today, I don't have -- I cannot share with you all those kind of minor details because it's related to customer's product plan.
蘭迪,讓我來回答這個問題。 2 奈米技術肯定會在 2025 年開始發展。 2026年的數量肯定比2025年高很多,因為2025年是第一年。但話雖如此,我的意思是我們的 HPC 客戶和智慧型手機客戶現在正在與 N2 合作,以及我們將在 2025 年加大力度。今天,我無法與大家分享所有這些次要細節,因為它與客戶的產品計劃有關。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Randy. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?
好的。謝謝你,蘭迪。接線員,我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎?
Operator
Operator
The next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.
下一位提問者是摩根士丹利的陳查理。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
C.C., Wendell and Jeff, so first of all, congrats for the first quarter gross margin and great to hear that N3E yield rate continue to improve. So let me stay with the CapEx question for a little bit as my first question.
C.C.、Wendell 和 Jeff,首先祝賀第一季的毛利率,很高興聽到 N3E 收益率繼續提高。因此,讓我先談談資本支出問題,作為我的第一個問題。
So first of all, the major equipment supplier ASML, to suggest that EUV orders get pushed out a little bit. And we all know that your company is a major user of EUV. So can management answer the question - first of all, whether the CapEx this year will be lower end of your guidance range? And also for next year, whether your CapEx intensity would decline year-on-year given that EUV push out?
因此,首先,主要設備供應商ASML建議將EUV訂單延後一點。我們都知道,貴公司是 EUV 的主要使用者。那麼,管理層能否回答這個問題——首先,今年的資本支出是否會低於您指導範圍的下限?明年,考慮到 EUV 的推出,你們的資本支出強度是否會比去年同期下降?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Charlie's first question is related to CapEx. He points out that newspaper talks about EUV orders being pushed out. So his question is really for our CapEx in 2023, do we think it will be towards the lower end of the range? And then also any indication for 2024 in terms of both CapEx and capital intensity. Is that correct, Charlie?
好的。所以查理的第一個問題與資本支出有關。他指出,報紙談論了 EUV 訂單被取消的情況。所以他的問題實際上是針對我們 2023 年的資本支出,我們認為它會達到該範圍的下限嗎?然後還有 2024 年資本支出和資本密集度的任何跡象。這是正確的嗎,查理?
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Maybe Wendell can answer.
好的。也許溫德爾可以回答。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Charlie, this is Wendell. First of all, we don't comment on specific suppliers or customers or competitors. Regarding this year's CapEx, when we gave out the CapEx range, $32 billion to $36 billion, we have already started or tightened up our 2023 capital budget.
查理,這是溫德爾。首先,我們不會評論特定的供應商、客戶或競爭對手。關於今年的資本支出,當我們給出320億至360億美元的資本支出範圍時,我們已經開始或收緊了2023年的資本預算。
At this moment, we believe this range is appropriate and it's prudent under today's economic environment, that range is still valid. Now for next year, it's too early to talk about next year. But as I just stated, the CapEx spend this year will be for future years, and CapEx spend next year will be for even future years. So if we see the growth opportunities is there, then we will continue to invest. That's the main policy, the principle that we have.
目前,我們認為這個區間是適當的,也是審慎的,在當今的經濟環境下,這個區間仍然有效。現在談明年,現在談明年還太早。但正如我剛才所說,今年的資本支出將用於未來幾年,明年的資本支出將用於未來幾年。因此,如果我們看到存在成長機會,那麼我們將繼續投資。這是我們的主要政策、原則。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Yes. Yes, thanks for the clarification. So I guess the question is if, right, whether those growth drivers still there, meaning because it was outsourcing for 2024, and whether your customers are aggressively adopting your N3 and N2. Yes, I guess that's why we are concerned about whether 2024, you're reducing some CapEx. But anyway, let me shift to the next one. I think a lot of investors also are quite interested about the U.S. CHIPS Act. So I remember Chairman showed some concern about those requirements. I'm not sure which one is specifically concerned, for example, I need to disclose customer information, profit sharing, some restrictions for the future China fab investments.
是的。是的,謝謝您的澄清。所以我想問題是,這些成長動力是否仍然存在,這意味著因為它是 2024 年的外包,以及您的客戶是否積極採用您的 N3 和 N2。是的,我想這就是為什麼我們擔心 2024 年是否會減少一些資本支出。但無論如何,讓我轉到下一個。我想很多投資者也對美國的CHIPS法案很有興趣。我記得主席對這些要求表示了一些擔憂。我不確定具體關注的是哪一項,例如我需要揭露客戶資訊、利潤分享、對未來中國晶圓廠投資的一些限制。
So my question is that how TSMC is going to reconcile your own interest versus the U.S. government's requirements. And if it is hard to reconcile, whether TSMC would consider not to take U.S. government's grants.
所以我的問題是,台積電將如何協調你自己的利益與美國政府的要求。而如果難以調和,台積電是否會考慮不接受美國政府的補助。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Charlie's second question is regarding the CHIPS Act. He notes we have recently said that some of the terms may be not acceptable. So he wants to understand how will TSMC reconcile its own interest versus some of the guidelines or guardrails around the CHIPS Act. And is there a possibility that we will not accept or participate in the CHIPS Act.
好的。查理的第二個問題是關於《CHIPS 法案》的。他指出我們最近說過有些條款可能不可接受。因此,他想了解台積電將如何協調自己的利益與《晶片法案》的一些指導方針或護欄。我們是否有可能不接受或不參與 CHIPS 法案?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay, Charlie, let me make a few comments on this one. We are currently in the application process and, therefore, we're not able to comment on specific details. However, we are in close and constant communication with the U.S. government so that we fully understand all the details and provide our feedback and comments to them. At the end, all the decisions that we make will be based on the best interest of TSMC.
好吧,查理,讓我對此發表一些評論。我們目前正處於申請過程中,因此無法對具體細節發表評論。但是,我們與美國政府保持密切、持續的溝通,以便我們充分了解所有細節並向他們提供回饋和意見。最終,我們所做的所有決定都會基於台積電的最大利益。
Operator
Operator
The next one to ask question, Brett Simpson from Arete Research.
下一位提問者是來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Yes. Wendell, I wanted to just talk a bit about Arizona. And now that you're scheduled to move into production next year and you've been hiring a lot of people, how do we think about the cost premium for TSMC operating in the U.S.?
是的。溫德爾,我想談談亞利桑那州。既然你們計劃明年投入生產,並且已經僱用了很多人,那麼我們如何看待台積電在美國運營的成本溢價?
And then when it comes to the pricing for the wafers, would this be something that you charge a premium for, for accessing U.S. capacity? Or would you be sort of offering similar wafer pricing to what you offer in Taiwan?
然後,當涉及晶圓的定價時,您是否會為獲得美國產能而收取溢價?或者你們會提供與台灣相似的晶圓定價嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Brett. So Brett's first question is around -- regarding our Arizona fab. He notes that the volume manufacturing schedule is on track, and we've hired lots of people. So his first question is to Wendell around sort of what is the cost premium that we face in Arizona and how will we manage this, including our wafer pricing. Will we charge a different price for a different fab? Or how do we intend to do it?
好的。謝謝你,布雷特。所以布雷特的第一個問題是──關於我們亞利桑那州的工廠。他指出,批量生產計劃正在按計劃進行,我們已經僱用了很多人。因此,他的第一個問題是向溫德爾詢問我們在亞利桑那州面臨的成本溢價是多少,以及我們將如何管理這一點,包括我們的晶圓定價。我們會對不同的晶圓廠收取不同的價格嗎?或者我們打算如何做?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay, Brett. The overseas fab is indeed the cost is higher, at least in the first several years. And we stated last time that some of the components like the construction costs may be as high as 5x. Now the way to mitigate that, first of all, it's -- it represents our global expansion represent a value to the customers, then we will be selling that value as well.
好吧,布雷特。海外晶圓廠確實成本較高,至少在前幾年是如此。而且我們上次說過,有些組件例如建造成本可能高達5倍。現在,緩解這種情況的方法首先是——它代表了我們的全球擴張,代表了對客戶的價值,然後我們也將出售該價值。
And secondly, because of our large base and volume, we'll be able to leverage that big base and volume to lower down the cost. And at the same time, of course, we will need to secure the necessary level of government support.
其次,由於我們的基數和銷售量很大,我們將能夠利用這個大的基數和銷售量來降低成本。當然,同時,我們需要獲得必要水準的政府支持。
So putting all these efforts together, we will -- our job is to minimize the cost gap and make appropriate return. For the whole company on a combined basis, the 53% and higher gross margin remains our long-term financial goal and is achievable.
因此,將所有這些努力放在一起,我們的工作就是最大限度地減少成本差距並獲得適當的回報。對於整個公司來說,53%及更高的毛利率仍然是我們的長期財務目標,並且是可以實現的。
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Great. And maybe just a follow-up. I wanted to ask about the subsidies that TSMC are getting today, particularly in areas like Japan. How much is this going to be in 2023? And are you expecting a meaningful increase in support in the second half of the year? I'm just trying to understand what's embedded in guidance and how to think about accounting for the support that you're expecting over the medium term.
偉大的。也許只是後續行動。我想問一下台積電今天獲得的補貼,特別是在日本等地區。 2023 年這個數字會是多少?您預計下半年的支援會大幅增加嗎?我只是想了解指導中包含的內容以及如何考慮您在中期期望的支持。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Brett has a quick follow-up with regards to Japan. His question in terms of the government support or incentives we may receive. How will we account for it? How much will it be in 2023 and how significant? Is it most of it in the second half?
好的。因此佈雷特對日本進行了快速跟進。他的問題是我們可能獲得的政府支持或激勵措施。我們將如何解釋它?到 2023 年會是多少以及有多重要?大部分是在下半場嗎?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Brett, let me reply this matter. In Japan, we will -- our total CapEx is about $8 billion, and we expect about 50% to receive from the government. And we will be production -- start production at the end of next year. So the incentives from the government will be according -- will be based on the progress that we are building our fabs. So that gives you some idea of how much we can receive this year and next year.
好的。布雷特,我來回答這件事。在日本,我們的總資本支出約為 80 億美元,我們預計約 50% 將來自政府。我們將在明年年底開始生產。因此,政府的獎勵措施將根據我們建造晶圓廠的進展而定。這樣您就可以了解今年和明年我們可以收到多少資金。
How do we account for it? Basically, we will be -- that will be accounted for as an offset of depreciation. Okay?
我們如何解釋它?基本上,我們將——這將被視為折舊的抵消。好的?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Brett. Operator, can we move on to the next participant then?
好的。謝謝你,布雷特。接線員,我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎?
Operator
Operator
Next, we have Sunny Lin from UBS.
接下來是來自瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
So my first question is on the pricing. So I think, just now, management again reiterated that your supply chain value is increasing and you look to sell that value. And so with that, as you are about to start ramping overseas capacity more significantly into next couple of years, how should we think about your ASP trend?
所以我的第一個問題是關於定價。因此,我認為,管理層剛才再次重申,您的供應鏈價值正在增加,並且您希望出售該價值。因此,當你們即將在未來幾年開始更大幅度地提高海外產能時,我們該如何看待你們的平均售價趨勢?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Sunny's first question is also related to pricing. She knows that semiconductor industry value in the supply chain TSMC is increasing. Her question is that, Sunny, I believe as we expand our footprint and capacity beyond Taiwan and go overseas, what will be the ASP trend in the next few years. Is that correct?
好的。所以Sunny的第一個問題也跟定價有關。她知道半導體產業在台積電供應鏈中的價值正在增加。她的問題是,Sunny,我相信隨著我們將足跡和產能擴展到台灣以外並走向海外,未來幾年的ASP趨勢會如何。這是正確的嗎?
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
That's right.
這是正確的。
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Okay. Sunny, I answer this question. First, actually, our pricing strategy actually is strategic and long term. We work with our customer. Yes, you are right. I mean, that the inflation or all others, the cost is increasing, especially in the overseas fab.
好的。陽光,我來回答這個問題。首先,實際上,我們的定價策略實際上是策略性的、長期的。我們與客戶合作。是的你是對的。我的意思是,通貨膨脹或其他所有因素,成本都在增加,尤其是在海外晶圓廠。
However, we already put all those kind of things into consideration. And we have a lot of action items to work with internally and also with our partners, our supply partners and to lower down all the costs. And we're also working on the supply chain management. So we hope that we will control that, even with today's very tough situation.
然而,我們已經考慮了所有這些事情。我們有許多行動項目需要與內部以及我們的合作夥伴、我們的供應夥伴合作,以降低所有成本。我們也致力於供應鏈管理。因此,我們希望即使在今天的情況非常嚴峻的情況下,我們也能控制住這種情況。
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Got it. Sorry, if I could have a very quick follow-up. And so how should we think about the mechanism? For you to reflect that supply chain value, would it be an annual pricing negotiation? And I also wonder what's the customer feedbacks under the current situations.
知道了。抱歉,如果我能盡快跟進就好了。那我們該如何思考這個機制呢?為了體現供應鏈價值,是否需要進行年度定價談判?我也想知道目前情況下客戶的回饋如何。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
All right. So Sunny wants to know how will we do the pricing. Is it on an annual basis? How -- what's the feedback from customers?
好的。所以 Sunny 想知道我們將如何定價。是按年計算嗎?客戶的反饋如何?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Sunny, this is very specific, but let me emphasize again. Our pricing is strategic, and we reflect our value. Now our value includes the value of a geographic flexibility. Did that give you some hint?
Sunny,這是非常具體的,但讓我再次強調一下。我們的定價具有策略性,反映了我們的價值。現在我們的價值包括地域靈活性的價值。這給了你一些提示嗎?
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Got it. That's very helpful. My second question is on your CapEx expansion. And so I wonder, if we look at the equipment lead time, are you seeing ongoing improvement? What I'm trying to understand, if you need to tighten up the CapEx. But let's say, if later on, demand start to recover or get better into second half of the year, how much flexibility you have to pull in the equipment?
知道了。這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於您的資本支出擴張。所以我想知道,如果我們看看設備的交貨時間,您是否看到了持續的改進?我想了解的是,如果您需要收緊資本支出。但假設,如果稍後需求開始恢復或在下半年有所好轉,您需要在設備上有多大的彈性?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Sunny's second question is around capacity expansion and equipment lead time. She notes that we have said we're tightening up our CapEx this year and being prudent given the economic environment.
好的。所以Sunny的第二個問題是關於產能擴充和設備交貨時間。她指出,我們已經說過,今年我們將收緊資本支出,並鑑於經濟環境保持謹慎。
But her question is if the demand recovers in the second half, how quickly can we adjust our equipment and capacity? And would the equipment lead time then become a bottleneck? Is that correct, Sunny?
但她的問題是,如果下半年需求恢復,我們能多快調整設備和產能?那麼設備交貨時間會不會成為瓶頸?這是正確的嗎,桑尼?
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
That's right.
這是正確的。
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Okay. Sunny, this is a very, very good question. We are tightening up on the CapEx. But at the same time, we also remain flexible that once the demand pick up quickly, we should be -- have prepared enough capacity for our customers to grow.
好的。 Sunny,這是一個非常非常好的問題。我們正在收緊資本支出。但同時,我們也保持靈活性,一旦需求迅速回升,我們應該為客戶的成長準備足夠的產能。
And so both factors are very important, and we are working with all the suppliers preparing for that. In fact, we are planning our long-term capacity expansion and then with some kind of adjustment in between.
因此,這兩個因素都非常重要,我們正在與所有供應商合作,為此做好準備。事實上,我們正在計劃我們的長期產能擴張,然後在其間進行某種調整。
So we have a flexibility to increase quickly. We also have a flexibility to tighten the CapEx. But the main trend stays the same because we believe AI, 5G, the megatrend will continue to grow, and TSMC business will continue to grow.
所以我們有快速成長的靈活性。我們也可以靈活地收緊資本支出。但主要趨勢保持不變,因為我們相信AI、5G這一大趨勢將持續成長,台積電業務將持續成長。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
All right. Thank you, Sunny. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?
好的。謝謝你,桑尼。接線員,我們可以轉到下一位參與者嗎?
Operator
Operator
Next one, we have Laura Chen from Citi.
下一位是花旗銀行的 Laura Chen。
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
My first question is about the data center and server space. We know that in the high computing PC category that also includes some of the PC CPU or consumer-related applications. So that may show some weakness that we see the quarter-on-quarter decline in Q1.
我的第一個問題是關於資料中心和伺服器空間。我們知道,在高運算PC類別中也包含一些與PC CPU或消費相關的應用。因此,我們看到第一季的環比下降可能表明存在一些弱點。
But I'm just wondering that since we see quite promising AI server growth, what's -- specifically, if we look at the AI-related contribution at current right now or what's the growth outlook you may be looking for?
但我只是想知道,既然我們看到人工智慧伺服器的成長非常有希望,那麼具體來說,如果我們看看目前與人工智慧相關的貢獻,或者您可能正在尋找的成長前景是什麼?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Laura's question, she notes that our HPC platform includes more consumer-facing things such as PC CPUs, but it also includes data and server -- data center and server, sorry. So her question is, really, I guess, what is TSMC's view on the growth outlook for AI data centers? And how significant this could be for HPC business.
好的。所以勞拉的問題,她指出我們的HPC平台包括更多面向消費者的東西,例如PC CPU,但它也包括資料和伺服器——資料中心和伺服器,抱歉。所以她的問題是,我猜,台積電對人工智慧資料中心的成長前景有何看法?這對 HPC 業務來說意義重大。
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Yes. So if we -- excluding those like gaming GPU or consumer PC CPU in this category, so what's the data center and server business looks right now?
是的。因此,如果我們排除遊戲 GPU 或消費 PC CPU 等此類產品,那麼資料中心和伺服器業務目前情況如何?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Laura, let me answer this question. We did see some positive signs of the people getting much more attention to AI application, especially the ChatGPT's area. However, as I said, quantitatively, we haven't have enough data to summing it up to see what is the contribution and what kind of percentage to TSMC's business. But we remain confident that this trend is definitely positive for TSMC.
蘿拉,讓我來回答這個問題。我們確實看到了一些積極的跡象,人們越來越關注人工智慧應用,尤其是 ChatGPT 領域。不過,正如我所說,從數量上來說,我們還沒有足夠的數據來總結,看看對台積電的業務貢獻有多大、比例是多少。但我們仍然相信,這一趨勢對台積電來說絕對是正面的。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
And we don't break down our HPC platform into those type of subsegments.
我們不會將 HPC 平台分解為這些類型的子部分。
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Okay. Understood. And then my second question is also related to the high computing PC angle. Just wondering that your expansion and trend in advanced packaging, so we know that many of those like AI or server high-computing PC CPU, they require the advanced packaging like a CoWoS or a 2.5D, 3D packaging.
好的。明白了。然後我的第二個問題也跟高運算PC角度有關。只是想知道你們在先進封裝方面的擴張和趨勢,所以我們知道很多像人工智慧或伺服器高運算PC CPU,他們需要像CoWoS或2.5D、3D封裝這樣的先進封裝。
So I'm just wondering that any more capacity you require right now. And what's the current capacity or revenue you can share with us and also the growth trend?
所以我只是想知道您現在是否需要更多容量。您目前的產能或收入是多少,以及成長趨勢是多少?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Laura's second question is on the advanced packaging. She notes that applications like HPC, PC CPUs, et cetera, require CoWoS or 3D stacking, 3D IC advanced packaging technology. So her question is, what is the capacity expansion outlook or plan for our advanced packaging? And also what is the revenue growth outlook, I guess, over the next few years. Is that correct, Laura?
好的。所以勞拉的第二個問題是關於先進封裝的。她指出,HPC、PC CPU 等應用需要 CoWoS 或 3D 堆疊、3D IC 先進封裝技術。那麼她的問題是,我們先進封裝的產能擴充前景或計畫是什麼?我猜,未來幾年的營收成長前景如何。這是正確的嗎,勞拉?
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Laura, let me start. For the advanced packaging, the back-end services, we think that its growth in next about 5 years will be slightly higher than the corporate average. However, for this year, is -- the revenue will be lower than that of last year because of customer demand.
好的。蘿拉,讓我開始吧。對於先進封裝、後端服務,我們認為未來5年左右的成長將略高於企業平均值。然而,由於客戶需求,今年的收入將低於去年。
Last year, the revenue accounted for about 7% of our total revenue. This year is somewhere between 6 to 7. So that should give you an idea of the overall packaging.
去年,該收入占我們總收入的7%左右。今年是 6 到 7 之間。
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Okay. So in terms of the capacity, is there any change in this year versus last year?
好的。那麼從產能來看,今年與去年相比有什麼變化嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
So her question -- also a part of the question is specific to the capacity for packaging. What is the year-on-year growth in the advanced packaging capacity?
所以她的問題——還有一部分的問題是針對包裝容量。先進封裝產能年增多少?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Well, Laura -- no, no, no. I mean, that's -- let me say that, actually, just recently in these 2 days, I received a customer's phone call requesting a big increase on the back-end capacity, especially in the CoWoS. We are still evaluating that.
好吧,勞拉——不,不,不。我的意思是,讓我說,實際上,就在最近這兩天,我接到一個客戶的電話,要求大幅增加後端容量,特別是在 CoWoS 中。我們仍在評估這一點。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you. Operator, please move on to the next participant, please.
好的。謝謝。接線員,請轉到下一位參加者。
Operator
Operator
Yes. Next one to ask questions, Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.
是的。下一位提問者是來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Yes. Your guide for June and also 2023 revenue suggests revenues in the second half of the year would be up by 25% versus the first half. And what I want to better understand is how will new product ramps drive this growth.
是的。你們的 6 月和 2023 年收入指南表明,下半年的收入將比上半年成長 25%。我想更了解新產品的推出將如何推動這種成長。
Is there anything quantitative or qualitative that you can offer us to understand the mechanics or the drivers behind this 25% growth in revenue from first half into the second half? And I have a follow-up.
您是否可以向我們提供任何定量或定性的信息,以幫助我們了解上半年到下半年收入增長 25% 背後的機製或驅動因素?我有一個後續行動。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Mehdi. So Mehdi's first question is in looking at our guidance, his calculation implies around mid-20s half-on-half growth in the second half. So he wants to know how much is new projects or new business driving that percentage of the growth.
好的。謝謝你,邁赫迪。因此,邁赫迪的第一個問題是看看我們的指導,他的計算表明下半年將出現大約 20 年代中期的半增長。因此,他想知道新項目或新業務在多大程度上推動了這一成長百分比。
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Well, I can answer that question. To give you a hint, I mean, that we talk about customer's new product launch and which use 3-nanometer. So you can understand that we start to ramp up 3-nanometer quickly because it fully utilize and still not enough to meet customers' demand. In addition to that, actually, all the platforms, their performance, their demand will increase in the second half.
嗯,我可以回答這個問題。為了給你一個提示,我的意思是,我們談論客戶的新產品發布,並使用 3 奈米。所以你可以理解,我們開始快速提升 3 奈米工藝,因為它已充分利用,但仍不足以滿足客戶的需求。除此之外,實際上所有平台、它們的表現、它們的需求都會在下半年增加。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
So as these new products drive wafer shipment increase, we should assume that utilization rates would bottom in June and improve into the second half, right?
因此,隨著這些新產品帶動晶圓出貨量增加,我們應該假設利用率將在六月觸底並在下半年有所改善,對嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
So Mehdi wants -- so can -- he wants to know, can you assume utilization bottoms in 2Q and improves in second half.
因此,邁赫迪希望——他也可以——他想知道,你能否假設利用率在第二季度觸底並在下半年有所改善。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Yes, Mehdi, that's a reasonable view.
是的,邁赫迪,這是一個合理的觀點。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
C.C. has already said second half will be stronger than first half. Do you have a second question, Mehdi?
C.C.已經說過下半年會比上半年更強。邁赫迪,你還有第二個問題嗎?
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Yes. I have one for Wendell. This question comes from every earnings conference call, capital intensity. Should we assume that as you tighten your CapEx project for this year? And especially in the context of declining revenues for the whole year, are we at the tail end of elevated capital intensity?
是的。我有一份給溫德爾的。這個問題來自每次財報電話會議,資本密集度。當您收緊今年的資本支出項目時,我們是否應該假設這一點?尤其是在全年收入下降的背景下,我們是否處於資本密集度上升的尾聲?
Or should we assume that you -- over the past couple of years, there has been significant investment and starting next year, you're going to be able to scale your revenues? Is that the right way of thinking about all these investments that you have done?
或者我們是否應該假設您在過去幾年中進行了大量投資,並且從明年開始,您將能夠擴大收入?這是思考您所做的所有這些投資的正確方式嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Mehdi's second question is on -- around capital intensity. He wants to know, given the guidance we have provided for 2023, are we at the tail end of the higher capital intensity period or elevated capital intensity period? And then will we start to, I guess, harvest or see that capital intensity come down next year or into the next few years?
好的。因此,邁赫迪的第二個問題是──資本密集度。他想知道,根據我們為 2023 年提供的指導,我們是否處於資本密集度較高時期或資本密集度上升時期的尾聲?然後,我想,我們會在明年或未來幾年開始收穫或看到資本強度下降嗎?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Mehdi, I am not going to share with you the peak, where the peak is. But I can tell you from my current 5-year outlook, we are looking at about mid-30s percentage of capital intensity.
邁赫迪,我不會與你分享巔峰,巔峰在哪裡。但我可以告訴你,從我目前的 5 年展望來看,我們正在關注大約 30 多歲的資本密集度百分比。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Thank you, Mehdi. Operator, let's move on to the next participant.
謝謝你,邁赫迪。接線員,我們轉到下一位參與者。
Operator
Operator
Yes. The next one to ask questions, Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.
是的。下一位提問者是來自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
My first one is on your comment that the N3 capacity will be fully utilized this year, is that capacity that will be online in the second half same or higher or lower than what you planned a year ago? And also at this point, do you see the N3 wafer demand profile to be similar or better than N5 at the same point in the cycle? And then I have a follow-up.
我的第一個問題是,您提到今年N3產能將充分利用,下半年上線的產能與您一年前的計劃是相同還是更高還是更低?同樣在這一點上,您是否認為在周期的同一點上 N3 晶圓需求狀況與 N5 相似或更好?然後我有一個後續行動。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Krish's first question is on N3 capacity. Note we said they will be fully utilized this year. He wants to know the capacity that we build or plan for N3 this year and in the second half. How does that capacity amount compared to what we expected a year ago?
好的。所以 Krish 的第一個問題是關於 N3 容量。請注意,我們說過它們將在今年充分利用。他想知道我們今年和下半年 N3 建設或計劃的產能。與我們一年前的預期相比,這容量如何?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Well, I can answer the question. Actually, the demand is higher than we thought a year ago, and that's why that we need to work very hard to meet customer's demand. Did that answer your question, Krish?
嗯,我可以回答這個問題。事實上,需求比我們一年前想像的要高,這就是為什麼我們需要非常努力地滿足客戶的需求。這回答了你的問題嗎,克里什?
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it, got it. And then just a quick follow-up. You spoke about AI being a positive and all the innovation happening in generative AI today. Just from a TSMC standpoint, is this fair to assume that what you're going through today is more on the training stage and therefore is more semiconductor and wafer intensive, but when you go into more inference, that intensity has to decrease? Is that a fair assumption? Or do you think that this level of intensity will continue growing from a TSMC standpoint for AI?
明白了,明白了。然後進行快速跟進。您談到人工智慧是積極的,以及當今生成式人工智慧中發生的所有創新。僅從台積電的角度來看,假設您今天所經歷的更多是在訓練階段,因此半導體和晶圓更加密集,但當您進行更多推理時,這種強度必須降低,這公平嗎?這是一個公平的假設嗎?或者從台積電的角度來看,您認為這種強度會持續成長嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Krish's, second question is regards to generative AI and these type of applications. His observation is that the majority is training today, which seems to be beneficial. But as training moves to inference, would it be less semi-intensive or semi content intensive? And then, therefore, would that be, i.e., lower benefit to TSMC?
好的。因此,克里什的第二個問題是關於生成人工智慧和此類應用程式。他的觀察是,今天大多數人都在訓練,這似乎是有益的。但隨著訓練轉向推理,半強化或半內容強化的程度是否會降低?那麼,台積電的利益是否會降低?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Krish, I mean, that today, your observation is right because, right now, most of the AI concentrate or focus on training. And in the future, it will be inference. But let me say that, no matter what kind of application, they need to use a very high-performance semiconductor component, and that actually is a TSMC's advantage.
克里什,我的意思是,今天你的觀察是正確的,因為現在大多數人工智慧都集中在訓練上。而未來,將是推理。但我要說的是,無論什麼樣的應用,都需要使用非常高性能的半導體元件,這其實是台積電的優點。
So we expect that semiconductor content starting from a data center proliferate to device and edge device or those kind of things, put all together, they need a very high-speed computing with a very power-efficient one. And so we expect it will add to TSMC's business a lot. Qualitatively, as I said, we didn't know yet. We hope that in the next few quarters, we can give a more clear picture.
因此,我們預期半導體內容從資料中心開始擴展到設備和邊緣設備或類似的東西,總而言之,它們需要非常高速的運算和非常節能的運算。因此我們預計它將大大增加台積電的業務。正如我所說,從品質上來說,我們還不知道。我們希望在接下來的幾個季度中,我們能夠給出更清晰的畫面。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you. Operator, in the interest of time, we will take the last 2 questions from the last 2 participants, please. So can we proceed to the next participant?
好的。謝謝。接線員,為了節省時間,我們將回答最後 2 位參與者的最後 2 個問題。那我們可以繼續下一位參與者嗎?
Operator
Operator
Next one is Brad Lin from Bank of America.
下一位是美國銀行的 Brad Lin。
Brad Lin - Research Analyst
Brad Lin - Research Analyst
I have two questions, one on the internal organization change and the other on the recently announced strategic alliance. So while the global expansion is a key focus of TSMC, I noticed that TSMC set up a new unit called overseas operations office, OOO. What are the targets and impact that the TSMC management will look for from this new unit? That's my first question.
我有兩個問題,一是內部組織變革,二是最近宣布的策略聯盟。因此,雖然全球擴張是台積電的重點,但我注意到台積電設立了一個新部門,稱為海外營運辦公室,OOO。台積電管理階層希望這個新部門的目標和影響是什麼?這是我的第一個問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Brad's first question is about our internal organization change. We set up an overseas office we call OOO. So he wants to know what is the purpose of this organization or office. What is its targets and purpose?
好的。所以布拉德的第一個問題是關於我們內部組織變革的。我們設立了一個海外辦事處,我們稱之為 OOO。所以他想知道這個組織或辦公室的目的是什麼。其目標和目的是什麼?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Well, the purpose is very simple, because we need to have all the organization. Now the fab is overseas fab's number and the amount would be more and more. So we need to have a coherence or -- and the culture, everything aligned to the headquarter to TSMC's core value.
嗯,目的很簡單,因為我們需要有所有的組織。現在晶圓廠都是海外晶圓廠的數量,而且數量會越來越多。因此,我們需要有一種一致性或文化,一切都與總部和台積電的核心價值保持一致。
So we established this overseas operation office to make sure that headquarters' support to each overseas fab will be sufficient and enough. And so that the performance will be aligned or matched with the TSMC's fab in Taiwan. But more importantly, because of we have this organization, so we can help them to succeed and, in the future, can be more profitable.
所以我們設立了這個海外營運辦公室,以確保總部對每個海外晶圓廠的支援是充分的、足夠的。這樣性能將與台積電在台灣的晶圓廠保持一致或匹配。但更重要的是,因為我們有這個組織,所以我們可以幫助他們成功,並且在未來可以獲得更多利潤。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Thank you, C.C. Brad, do you want to -- yes, your second question.
謝謝你,C.C.布拉德,你想──是的,你的第二個問題。
Brad Lin - Research Analyst
Brad Lin - Research Analyst
Sure. So my second question will be on the recently announced strategic alliance. As there node migration is the foundry's competition focus, and we know that TSMC leadership in the leading edge. We recently see TSMC partnered up with NVIDIA, Synopsys and ASML on 2-nanometer production and beyond.
當然。我的第二個問題是關於最近宣布的策略聯盟。由於節點遷移是晶圓代工廠的競爭焦點,而我們知道台積電處於領先優勢。我們最近看到台積電與 NVIDIA、Synopsys 和 ASML 就 2 奈米及更高等級的生產進行了合作。
And what is the target? And how is the progress so far? And TSMC is currently the only foundry within that group. Should we expect an even larger gap to peers with this? Or should we allow more companies or competitors to join this group?
目標是什麼?目前進展如何?台積電是目前該集團中唯一的代工廠。我們是否應該期待與同行之間存在更大的差距?或者我們應該允許更多的公司或競爭對手加入這個群體?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Brad, sorry. Let me clarify, make sure we understand your second question. So your second question is talking about, you call it, an alliance. But I think you referred to ASML and NVIDIA. So are you referring to this announcement recently of the -- what is called the cuLitho?
布拉德,對不起。讓我澄清一下,確保我們理解你的第二個問題。所以你的第二個問題是談論,你稱之為聯盟。但我認為你提到了 ASML 和 NVIDIA。那麼您指的是最近發布的 cuLitho 嗎?
Brad Lin - Research Analyst
Brad Lin - Research Analyst
Exactly, yes, computational litho.
確切地說,是的,計算光刻。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Yes. Okay. So -- okay. Got it. So Brad really wants to know what is management's view towards this recently announced cuLitho. What is the implication? And what does this mean for TSMC's competitiveness going forward?
是的。好的。所以——好吧。知道了。所以 Brad 真的很想知道管理階層對最近宣布的 cuLitho 有何看法。有何寓意?這對台積電未來的競爭力意味著什麼?
C. C. Wei - CEO
C. C. Wei - CEO
Okay. That's a good question. It is initiative invented by TSMC's customer NVIDIA. And actually, we are working with them. And this, particularly the software and the hardware together will help speed up computational lithography by moving expensive operation to GPU, which will help us deploy lithography solution like inverse lithography technology, deeper learning more broadly or et cetera.
好的。這是個好問題。它是台積電的客戶NVIDIA首創的。事實上,我們正在與他們合作。而這一點,特別是軟體和硬體的結合,將透過將昂貴的操作轉移到GPU 來幫助加速計算光刻,這將幫助我們部署光刻解決方案,如逆光刻技術、更廣泛的深度學習等等。
And because of this one, we got involved with our customer and our supplier. And we expect that this will give us some advantage over our cost improvement and also competition.
正因為如此,我們與我們的客戶和供應商進行了合作。我們預計這將為我們帶來一些優於成本改進和競爭的優勢。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Sure. Thank you, Brad. Operator, then can we move on to the last participant, please?
當然。謝謝你,布拉德。接線員,那麼我們可以轉到最後一位參與者嗎?
Operator
Operator
The last questions are from Charles Shi from Needham & Company.
最後一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Charles Shi。
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
I have a question about your CapEx. Maybe I want to start with one item you disclosed in your filings. On your balance sheet, you have an item called equipment under installation and construction in progress.
我對你們的資本支出有疑問。也許我想從您在文件中披露的一項開始。在您的資產負債表上,您有一項稱為正在安裝和施工的設備的項目。
That number has hit a record high, I think, over USD 40 billion as of the end of fourth quarter '22, which kind of means there are $40 billion investment. You put money in, but you are not harvesting that investment yet. But there's no revenue dollars being generated.
我認為,截至 22 年第四季末,這一數字已創下歷史新高,超過 400 億美元,這意味著投資額達到 400 億美元。您投入了資金,但尚未收穫投資。但沒有產生任何收入。
But now I think you said you're tightening the CapEx for 2023, but you're reiterating that $32 billion to $36 billion CapEx. That seems to be adding on top of that $40 billion. A lot more investment is still expected in this year.
但現在我認為您說過要收緊 2023 年的資本支出,但您卻重申了 320 億至 360 億美元的資本支出。這似乎是在 400 億美元的基礎上增加的。預計今年仍有更多投資。
So my question really is about this. Are you expecting a significantly higher incremental revenue opportunity in 2024 and beyond to justify that $40 billion plus, maybe another $32 billion investment? Or is the cycle time between you put the money in, put the investment into the time you harvest the investment, the generated revenue is getting a little bit longer than usual? So hopefully, you can clarify this.
所以我的問題確實是關於這個的。您是否預期 2024 年及以後會出現顯著更高的增量收入機會,以證明 400 億美元以上(也許另外 320 億美元)的投資是合理的?還是你投入資金、投入投資到收穫投資之間的周期時間,所產生的收入比平常長一點?希望您能澄清這一點。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Charles. That is a very long question. Please let me try to summarize it a little bit into 2 parts. I think Charles' question, he does rightly note that on our balance sheet, equipment under installation reached roughly about $40 billion at the end of 2022.
好吧,查爾斯。這是一個很長的問題。請讓我嘗試將其總結為兩部分。我認為查爾斯的問題確實正確地指出,在我們的資產負債表上,到 2022 年底,正在安裝的設備達到約 400 億美元。
He notes this is a very high level. His concern, maybe Wendell can address, as we also guided for $32 billion to $36 billion CapEx this year, so is this number going to only increase? And what is driving this? Is this preparing for significant revenue opportunities in 2024 and beyond? So this is his first question.
他指出這是一個非常高的水平。也許溫德爾可以解決他的擔憂,因為我們今年也指導了 320 億至 360 億美元的資本支出,那麼這個數字只會增加嗎?是什麼推動了這股趨勢?這是在為 2024 年及以後的重大收入機會做準備嗎?這是他的第一個問題。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay, Charles. The $40 billion asset under construction at the end of last year primarily come from 2 nodes, an N3 node and the N5 node. N3 node, that is because we're ramping up the N3 nodes. And N5, we continue to increase our capacity.
好吧,查爾斯。去年年底興建中的400億美元資產主要來自N3節點和N5節點2個節點。 N3 節點,那是因為我們正在增加 N3 節點。還有N5,我們持續增加產能。
Therefore, these 2 add together, you see a big -- a bigger asset under construction at the end of last year. From what I can see going forward, this number will be -- will gradually come down in the next few years.
因此,這兩者加在一起,你會看到去年年底有一個更大的正在建造的資產。從我的未來來看,這個數字將在未來幾年逐漸下降。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Charles.
好吧,查爾斯。
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
Yes. Maybe the other part of this question is because you are proceeding with that $32 billion to $36 billion, that -- it's hard for me to reconcile how this number comes down, at least in the next one year or so over the next 12-month horizon.
是的。也許這個問題的另一部分是因為你正在處理 320 億到 360 億美元,我很難調和這個數字如何下降,至少在接下來的一年左右的未來 12 個月內地平線。
How do I reconcile that? Or are you expecting, like, next year, there's going to be a significant revenue -- incremental revenue come in to TSMC?
我該如何協調呢?還是你期望明年會有可觀的收入-台積電將有增量收入?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Charles, as we said, it's too early to talk about next year. But we also said that if we continue to see the future growth opportunities there, we will continue to invest.
查爾斯,正如我們所說,現在談論明年還為時過早。但我們也表示,如果我們繼續看到那裡未來的成長機會,我們將繼續投資。
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
May I ask the second question?
我可以問第二個問題嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Sure.
當然。
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
Charles Shi - Senior Analyst
Yes. So the second question is about CHIPS Act. I heard you provided some help to the question from another analyst. But can you kind of quantify the potential benefits from the U.S. CHIPS Act, the manufacturing incentives, which to my understanding, including both grants and investment tax credit? I know this is kind of relevant to our modeling going forward.
是的。第二個問題是關於CHIPS法案的。我聽說您對另一位分析師的問題提供了一些幫助。但您能否量化美國《晶片法案》、製造業激勵措施(據我了解,包括贈款和投資稅收抵免)的潛在好處?我知道這與我們未來的建模有關。
And maybe if I may, can I ask -- one of your U.S. peers seems to be favoring investment tax credit over grants. They seem to only want the investment tax credit, not the grants. What is TSMC's thinking between these 2 different funding opportunities?
如果可以的話,也許我可以問一下——您的一位美國同行似乎更傾向於投資稅收抵免而不是贈款。他們似乎只想要投資稅收抵免,而不是補助。台積電對這兩種不同的融資機會有何想法?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Charles. So Charles' second question is around the CHIPS Act. He is asking if you can quantify the potential benefits, both in terms of grants and also in terms of tax credits. And also, do we favor one over the other or preference for one over the other?
好的。謝謝你,查爾斯。查爾斯的第二個問題是圍繞著《CHIPS 法案》的。他問你是否可以量化潛在的好處,無論是在補助金方面還是在稅收抵免方面。而且,我們是否偏愛其中一個或偏愛其中一個?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Charles, as I said, we are in the process of the application, so we're not in a position to disclose any details. I will refrain from sharing more information at this moment.
查爾斯,正如我所說,我們正在申請過程中,因此我們無法透露任何細節。目前我不會透露更多資訊。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Wendell. All right. So thank you, everyone. This concludes our Q&A session.
好的。謝謝你,溫德爾。好的。謝謝大家。我們的問答環節到此結束。
Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now, and the transcript will become available 24 hours from now. Both of these will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.
在我們結束今天的會議之前,請注意,會議重播將在 30 分鐘內提供,會議記錄將在 24 小時後提供。這兩項內容均可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。
So thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We hope you all continue to stay well, and we look forward to joining us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a great day.
謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們希望大家繼續保持健康,並期待下個季度再次加入我們。再見,祝你有美好的一天。