台積電 ADR (TSM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

(外語)大家下午好，歡迎參加台積電2022年第二季業績電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監、今天的主持人 Jeff Su。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. (Operator Instructions)

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 透過現場音訊網路直播的方式舉辦收益電話會議，您也可以在該網站上下載收益發布資料。 （操作員指令）

The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2022, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2022. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

今天活動的形式如下。首先，台積電副總裁兼財務長黃溫德爾先生將總結我們 2022 年第二季的營運情況，然後介紹我們對 2022 年第三季的指導。魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。然後，台積電董事長劉德華博士將主持問答環節，三位高階主管將回答您的問題。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將電話轉給台積電財務長黃文德先生，請他總結營運情況並給予本季指引。

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter 2022. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter.

謝謝你，傑夫。大家下午好，感謝大家今天的參與。我的演講將從 2022 年第二季的財務亮點開始。

Second quarter revenue increased 8.8% sequentially in NT or 3.4% in U.S. dollars, as our second quarter business was supported by strong HPC, IoT and automotive-related demand. Second quarter gross margin increased 3.5 percentage points sequentially to 59.1%, slightly ahead of our guidance, as we enjoyed a more favorable foreign exchange rate, cost improvement and value selling. Likewise, operating margin increased 3.5 percentage points sequentially to 49.1%, in line with our gross margin increase. Overall, our second quarter EPS was TWD 9.14 and ROE was 39.4%.

第二季營收以新台幣計算季增 8.8%，以美元計算環比成長 3.4%，這得益於我們第二季的業務受到強勁的 HPC、物聯網和汽車相關需求的支持。由於我們享受到更優惠的匯率、成本改善和價值銷售，第二季毛利率較上季成長 3.5 個百分點至 59.1%，略高於我們的預期。同樣，營業利潤率較上季成長 3.5 個百分點至 49.1%，與毛利率的成長一致。整體而言，我們第二季的每股收益為 9.14 新台幣，股本回報率為 39.4%。

Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 21% of wafer revenue in the second quarter while 7-nanometer accounted for 30%. Advanced technologies, which are defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 51% of wafer revenue.

現在我們來談談按技術劃分的收入。 5奈米製程技術在第二季貢獻了晶圓收入的21%，而7奈米製程技術則貢獻了30%。先進技術（定義為7奈米及以下）佔晶圓收入的51％。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. All 6 platforms increased in the second quarter. Smartphone increased 3% quarter-over-quarter to account for 38% of our second quarter revenue. HPC increased 13% to account for 43%. IoT increased 14% to account for 8%. Automotive increased 14% to account for 5%. And digital consumer electronics increased 5% to account for 3%.

接下來是平台的營收貢獻。第二季度，6個平台均成長。智慧型手機季增 3%，占我們第二季營收的 38%。 HPC成長13%，佔比達43%。物聯網成長14%，佔8%。汽車製造業成長了14%，佔5%。其中數位消費性電子產品成長5%，佔3%。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.4 trillion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 22 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD 47 billion in accounts payable, partially offset by the decrease of TWD 29 billion in short-term loans. Long-term interest-bearing debts increased by TWD 124 billion, mainly as we raised TWD 109 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter. On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 1 day to 37 days while days of inventory increased 7 days to 95 days as we prebuild N5 wafers and increased raw materials inventory.

繼續討論資產負債表。截至第二季末，我們的現金和有價證券總額為 1.4 兆新台幣。負債方面，流動負債增加220億新台幣，主要因為應付帳款增加470億新台幣，部分抵銷短期借款減少290億新台幣。長期有息債務增加1,240億新台幣，主要是因為本季我們籌集了1,090億新台幣的公司債。在財務比率方面，由於我們預製 N5 晶圓並增加原料庫存，應收帳款週轉天數減少 1 天至 37 天，而庫存天數增加 7 天至 95 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 339 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 218 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 71 billion for third quarter '21 cash dividend. Bonds payable increased by TWD 109 billion as a result of this quarter's bond issuances. Overall, our cash balance increased by TWD 102 billion to TWD 1.3 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures totaled $7.34 billion.

現在，讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。在第二季度，我們產生了約 3,390 億新台幣的經營現金，花費了 2,180 億新台幣的資本支出，並派發了 710 億新台幣的 21 年第三季度現金股息。應付債券因本季發行債券而增加1,090億新台幣。總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 1,020 億新台幣，達到 1.3 兆新台幣。以美元計算，我們第二季的資本支出總計 73.4 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between USD 19.8 billion and USD 20.6 billion, which represents a 11.2% sequential increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.7, gross margin is expected to be between 57.5% and 59.5%, operating margin between 47% and 49%.

我已經完成我的財務摘要。現在讓我們來看看本季的指引。根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第三季營收將在 198 億美元至 206 億美元之間，中間值環比成長 11.2%。以1美元兌29.7新台幣的匯率假設計算，預計毛利率介於57.5%至59.5%之間，營業利潤率介於47%至49%之間。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our second quarter and third quarter profitability.

現在讓我來談談我們的關鍵訊息。我將首先對我們第二季和第三季的獲利能力發表一些評論。

As a reminder, 6 factors determine TSMC's profitability: leadership technology development and ramp up, pricing, cost, capacity utilization, technology mix and foreign exchange rate.

需要提醒的是，六個因素決定了台積電的獲利能力：領導技術開發和提升、定價、成本、產能利用率、技術組合和外匯匯率。

Compared to first quarter, our second quarter gross margin increased by 350 basis points sequentially to 59.1%, mainly due to a more favorable foreign exchange rate, cost improvement and value selling. Compared to our second quarter guidance, our actual gross margins exceeded the high end of the range provided 3 months ago as our guidance was based on exchange rate assumption of $1 to TWD 28.8 whereas the actual second quarter exchange rate was $1 to TWD 29.42. This created about 90 basis point difference in our actual second quarter gross margin versus our original guidance. We have just guided our third quarter gross margin to decline 60 basis points sequentially to 58.5% at the midpoint, as a slightly more favorable exchange rate assumption will be more than offset by higher inflationary costs, including higher raw material and electricity costs.

與第一季相比，我們第二季的毛利率較上季成長了350個基點，達到59.1%，這主要得益於更有利的匯率、成本改善和價值銷售。與我們第二季度的預期相比，我們的實際毛利率超過了三個月前提供的範圍的高端，因為我們的預期是基於 1 美元兌 28.8 新台幣的匯率假設，而第二季度的實際匯率為 1 美元兌 29.42 新台幣。這導致我們第二季的實際毛利率與我們最初的預期相差約 90 個基點。我們剛剛預計第三季毛利率將比上一季下降 60 個基點，至 58.5%，因為略微有利的匯率假設將被更高的通膨成本（包括更高的原材料和電力成本）所抵銷。

Looking ahead on our profitability, we will face challenges from rising inflationary costs from raw materials, utilities and tools, increasing process complexity of leading nodes, new investments in mature nodes and overseas fab expansions. Despite the manufacturing cost challenges, and excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, of which we have no control over, taking the other 5 factors into consideration, we continue to believe a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.

展望未來的獲利能力，我們將面臨原材料、公用事業和工具通膨成本上升、領先節點製程複雜性增加、成熟節點的新投資以及海外晶圓廠擴建的挑戰。儘管面臨製造成本的挑戰，並且排除我們無法控制的匯率的影響，考慮到其他 5 個因素，我們仍然相信可以實現 53% 及更高的長期毛利率。

Next, let me talk about our effective tax rate. For 2022, we expect our tax rate to be between 10% and 11%. Starting in 2023, we will see the expiration of certain tax exemptions in Taiwan, and our effective tax rate will increase. However, Taiwan government is in the process of drafting certain new tax exemption regulations and is currently in the common period. Therefore, we will provide a further update on the outlook of our tax rate in 2023 and beyond when more details become available.

接下來我來談談我們的有效稅率。到 2022 年，我們預計稅率將在 10% 至 11% 之間。從 2023 年開始，台灣的某些免稅政策將到期，我們的有效稅率將會增加。不過，台灣政府正在起草一些新的免稅條例，目前正處於共同階段。因此，當有更多詳細資訊可用時，我們將進一步更新 2023 年及以後的稅率前景。

Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

Thank you, Wendell. We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time.

謝謝你，溫德爾。我們希望每個人在這段時間都能保持安全和健康。

First, let me start with our near-term growth outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of TWD 534 billion or USD 18.2 billion, supported by HPC, IoT and automotive-related demand. Moving into third quarter 2022, we expect our business to be supported by continued demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies.

首先，讓我先談談我們的近期成長前景。在高效能運算、物聯網和汽車相關需求的推動下，我們第二季的營收為 5,340 億新台幣或 182 億美元。進入 2022 年第三季度，我們預計我們的業務將受到對我們行業領先的 5 奈米和 7 奈米技術的持續需求的支持。

On the inventory side, due to the softening device momentum in smartphone, PC and consumer end market segments, we observe the supply chain is already taking action and expect inventory level to reduce throughout the second half 2022. After 2 years of pandemic-driven stay-at-home demand, this type of adjustment is reasonable, in our view. Our expectation is for the excess inventory in the semiconductor supply chain to take a few quarters to rebalance to a healthier level. We believe the current semiconductor cycle will be more similar to a typical cycle, with a few quarters of inventory adjustment likely through first half 2023. We have also internally modeled and prepared ourselves for various different scenarios in case it is necessary.

庫存方面，由於智慧型手機、個人電腦和消費終端市場設備動能減弱，我們觀察到供應鏈已經採取行動，預計 2022 年下半年庫存水準將下降。我們預計半導體供應鏈中的過剩庫存需要幾個季度才能重新平衡到更健康的水平。我們認為，目前的半導體週期將更類似於典型週期，到 2023 年上半年可能會進行幾個季度的庫存調整。

On the demand side, while we observe softness in consumer end market segment, other end market segments such as data center and automotive-related remains steady. And we are able to reallocate our capacity to support these areas. Despite the ongoing inventory correction, our customers' demand continue to exceed our ability to supply. We expect our capacity to remain tight throughout 2022 and our full year growth to be mid-30% in U.S. dollar terms.

在需求方面，雖然我們觀察到消費終端市場疲軟，但其他終端市場如資料中心和汽車相關仍然保持穩定。我們能夠重新分配我們的產能來支持這些領域。儘管庫存正在不斷調整，但客戶的需求仍然超出我們的供應能力。我們預計，2022 年全年產能將保持緊張，全年成長率以美元計算將達到 30% 左右。

Three key factor in supporting TSMC's strong structural demand are our technology leadership and differentiation, our strong portfolio in high-performance computing and our strategic relationship with customers. All of these factors are TSMC's strength in the foundry industry.

支撐台積電強勁結構性需求的三個關鍵因素是我們的技術領先地位和差異化、我們在高效能運算領域的強大產品組合以及我們與客戶的策略關係。所有這些因素都是台積電在晶圓代工產業的強項。

First, on technology leadership and differentiation. TSMC's technology position is much stronger today as compared to previous years. Looking ahead to 2023, we are working diligently to provide the industry most advanced technologies and making it available to all the product innovators with the successful ramp of N5, N4P, N4X. And the upcoming ramp-up of N3, we will expand our customer product portfolio and increase our addressable market. The macroeconomic uncertainty may persist into 2023, our technology leadership will continue to advance and support our growth.

第一，論技術領先與差異化。與前幾年相比，台積電目前的技術地位更加強大。展望 2023 年，我們將努力為該產業提供最先進的技術，並透過 N5、N4P、N4X 的成功推廣，將其提供給所有產品創新者。隨著 N3 即將推出，我們將擴大客戶產品組合併增加我們的潛在市場。宏觀經濟的不確定性可能會持續到 2023 年，我們的技術領導地位將繼續推進並支持我們的成長。

Secondly, the massive structural increase in the demand of computation, underpinned by the industry megatrend, continues to fill greater need for performance and energy-efficient computing, which require use of leading-edge technologies. Through our comprehensive IP ecosystem and optimized process technology, we are able to address and capture the structural demand and build a strong portfolio in high-performance computing. We expect HPC to be the main engine of TSMC's long-term growth and the largest contributor in terms of our incremental revenue growth in the next several years.

其次，在產業大趨勢的推動下，運算需求出現了大規模結構性成長，這持續滿足了對效能和節能運算的更大需求，而這需要使用尖端技術。透過我們全面的 IP 生態系統和優化的製程技術，我們能夠解決和捕捉結構性需求並在高效能運算領域建立強大的產品組合。我們預期HPC將成為台積電長期成長的主要引擎，也是未來幾年增加收入的最大貢獻者。

Third, our strategic relationship with our customer are long term in nature, developed and built through many years of collaboration and investment to enable customers' success in the high-end market. We continue to work closely with our customer and technology development, capacity planning and pricing to support their long-term demand and growth.

第三，我們與客戶的策略關係是長期的，透過多年的合作和投資發展和建立，幫助客戶在高端市場取得成功。我們繼續與客戶密切合作，進行技術開發、產能規劃和定價，以支持他們的長期需求和成長。

With all these 3 differentiating factors, we expect our capacity utilization to remain healthy in 2023. And our business to be less volatile and more resilient, supported by the strong demand for our differentiated and leading advanced and specialty technologies.

考慮到所有這 3 個差異化因素，我們預計我們的產能利用率在 2023 年將保持健康。

Now let me talk about TSMC's long-term growth outlook. While macroeconomic headwinds bring near-term uncertainties that may persist, we believe the fundamental structural growth trajectory in the long-term semiconductor demand remains firmly in place. We continue to observe silicon content increase across many end devices, fueled by process technology migration and increased functionality. For example, the number of CPUs, GPUs and AI accelerators in the data center are increasing. 5G smartphone carries substantially higher silicon content as compared to 4G smartphone. The amount of silicon content in today's car continue to rise. While the device unit growth of many electronics device may be flattish to low single-digit percentage range, in the next several years, the silicon content growth will be higher, in the mid- to high single-digit percentage range and support the long-term structural semiconductor demand and increase our addressable wafer demand.

現在我來談談台積電的長期成長前景。儘管宏觀經濟逆風帶來的短期不確定性可能會持續存在，但我們相信長期半導體需求的基本結構性成長軌跡仍然穩固。我們持續觀察到許多終端設備的矽含量不斷增加，這得益於製程技術的遷移和功能的增強。例如，資料中心的CPU、GPU和AI加速器的數量正在增加。 5G智慧型手機的矽含量比4G智慧型手機高很多。當今汽車中的矽含量不斷上升。雖然許多電子設備的裝置單位成長可能會持平至低個位數百分比範圍，但在未來幾年，矽含量成長將更高，在中高個位數百分比範圍內，並支援長期結構性半導體需求並增加我們可尋址晶圓需求。

TSMC's CapEx and capacity planning are always based on the long-term structural market demand profile, not near-term factors. We are working closely with our customer to plan our long-term capacity and investing in leading edge and specialty technology to support their growth. We will manage our business prudently through the near-term uncertainties, and we remain highly confident in our long-term growth outlook. With our technology leadership, manufacturing and capacity support and customer's trust, TSMC is well positioned to capture the strong multiyear growth from the favorable structural megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications and deliver profitable growth for our shareholders. We reiterate our long-term revenues to be between 15 and 20 CAGR over the next several years in U.S. dollar terms.

台積電的資本支出和產能規劃總是基於長期結構性市場需求狀況，而不是短期因素。我們正在與客戶密切合作，規劃我們的長期產能，並投資前沿和專業技術來支持他們的發展。我們將審慎管理我們的業務，應對短期的不確定性，並對我們的長期成長前景保持高度信心。憑藉我們的技術領先地位、製造和產能支援以及客戶的信任，台積電完全有能力抓住 5G 和 HPC 相關應用有利的結構性大趨勢帶來的強勁多年增長，並為我們的股東帶來盈利增長。我們重申，未來幾年我們的長期收入將以美元計算達到 15 至 20 的複合年增長率。

Next, let me talk about the tool delivery update. As a major player in the global semiconductor supply chain, TSMC works closely with all our tool supplier to plan our CapEx and capacity in advance. However, like many other industries, our suppliers have been facing greater challenges in their supply chains, which are extending toward delivery lead times for both advanced and mature nodes. As a result, we expect some of our CapEx this year to be pushed out into 2023.

接下來我來講一下工具交付更新。作為全球半導體供應鏈的主要參與者，台積電與我們所有的工具供應商密切合作，提前規劃我們的資本支出和產能。然而，與許多其他行業一樣，我們的供應商在供應鏈中面臨更大的挑戰，先進節點和成熟節點的交貨時間都在延長。因此，我們預計今年的部分資本支出將延後到 2023 年。

TSMC is actively doing its part to help our tool suppliers address the supply chain challenges. In April, we said that we have increased regular high-level communications to trace the progress and send several teams on site to support our suppliers. Since then, we have worked closely to identify critical chips that are gauging toward delivery. We are working dynamically with our customers and prioritize our wafer capacity to support these critical chips to help mitigate the chip constraint issues.

台積電正在積極盡自己的一份力量來幫助我們的工具供應商解決供應鏈挑戰。今年 4 月，我們表示已增加了高層定期溝通以追蹤進度情況，並派遣多個團隊到現場為我們的供應商提供支援。自那時起，我們一直密切合作，以確定即將交付的關鍵晶片。我們正在與客戶積極合作，優先考慮我們的晶圓產能來支援這些關鍵晶片，以幫助緩解晶片限制問題。

While challenges remain, the situation is improving. We do not expect any impact to our 2022 capacity plan. And we are able to put in the delivery schedule for certain amount of tools for our 2023 capacity. We have been working closely with our customer for 2023 so that we can support their demand.

儘管挑戰依然存在，但情況正在改善。我們預計這不會對我們的 2022 年產能計畫產生任何影響。並且我們能夠根據 2023 年的產能製定一定數量的工具的交付計劃。 2023 年，我們一直與客戶密切合作，以便能夠滿足他們的需求。

Now let me talk about the N3 and N3 status. Our N3 is on track for volume production in second half of this year with good year. We expect revenue contribution starting first half of 2023, with a smooth ramp in 2023, driven by both HPC and smartphone applications. N3 will further extend our N3 family with the enhanced performance, power and yield. N3 will offer complete platform support for both smartphone and HPC applications. We observed a high level of customer engagement at N3. And volume production is scheduled for around 1 year after N3. Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced. Thus, we are confident that our N3 family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

現在我來談談N3和N3狀態。我們的 N3 預計將在今年下半年實現量產，今年業績表現良好。我們預計收入貢獻將從 2023 年上半年開始，並在 HPC 和智慧型手機應用的推動下在 2023 年平穩上升。 N3 將透過增強的性能、功率和產量進一步擴展我們的 N3 系列。 N3 將為智慧型手機和 HPC 應用提供完整的平台支援。我們觀察到 N3 的客戶參與度很高。預計 N3 推出後約 1 年內量產。我們的3奈米技術一旦推出，無論是在PPA或電晶體技術上，都將是最先進的半導體技術。因此，我們有信心，我們的 N3 系列將成為台積電的另一個龐大且持久的節點。

Finally, let me talk about the N2 status. Our N2 technology development is on track and progressing well to our expectation, with risk production schedule in 2024 and volume production in 2025. After careful evaluation and extensive period of development, our 2-nanometer technology will adopt [N3E] transistor structure to provide our customers with best performance, cost and technology maturity. N2 deliver full node performance and power benefited to address the increasing need for energy-efficient computing, with 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 20% to 30% power improvement at the same speed and larger density of more than 20% increase as compared with N3E. Our 2-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in both density and energy-efficient when it is introduced and will further extend our leadership position well into the future.

最後說一下N2的情況。我們的 N2 技術開發正在按計劃進行，進展順利，符合我們的預期，風險生產計劃於 2024 年啟動，批量生產將於 2025 年啟動。 N2 提供全節點效能和功率優勢，以滿足日益增長的節能運算需求，與 N3E 相比，相同功率下速度提升 10 到 15 倍，相同速度下功率提升 20% 到 30%，更大密度提升 20% 以上。我們的2奈米技術一旦推出，無論是在密度或能源效率方面，都將成為業界最先進的半導體技術，並將在未來進一步鞏固我們的領先地位。

This concludes our key message, and thank you for your attention.

這就是我們的關鍵訊息，感謝您的關注。

Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared remarks. (Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session. Our Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will be the host.

謝謝你，C.C.我們的準備好的演講到此結束。 (操作員指示)如果您想用中文提出您的問題，我會將其翻譯成英文，然後我們的管理層才會回答您的問題。 (操作員指示)現在讓我們開始問答環節。我們的董事長劉馬克博士將擔任主持人。

Hello, everyone. Thank you for coming to this conference. I wish you all healthy and well. I think the -- we hope the above reports already answered some of your question. But it definitely shows -- we -- this company stands on firm ground. And we will be prepared prudently going through this near-term uncertainty. In the meantime, we will be also confident and well prepared for our next growth period.

大家好。感謝各位參加本次會議。祝大家身體健康。我認為—我們希望上述報告已經回答了您的一些問題。但它確實表明——我們——這家公司的基礎堅定。我們將審慎做好準備，以應對近期的不確定性。同時，我們也對下​​一個增長期充滿信心、做好充分準備。

So now the floor is open for your question.

現在我們可以回答你的提問了。

Thank you, Chairman. Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

謝謝主席。接線員，請繼續接聽線路上的第一位來電者。

The first one to ask question, Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

第一個提問的是瑞士信貸的蘭迪艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

Congratulations on the good outlook. My first question, I wanted to ask on your view on the business cycle. You raised your outlook to 35% in the strong third quarter. Could -- with that strong outlook, wanted to see what is driving your expectation for inventory drawdown in second half? And how broad you're seeing the inventory drawdown? And the follow-up question I wanted to ask to that is, what is your view on the first half? With your view customers will be drawing down through the first half, do you see underutilization? And how severe do you expect that correction?

恭喜你的前景光明。我的第一個問題是想問您對商業週期的看法。您將強勁的第三季的前景展望上調至 35%。鑑於如此強勁的前景，您想看看是什麼推動了您對下半年庫存下降的預期嗎？您認為庫存下降的幅度有多大？我想問的後續問題是，您對上半部有何看法？您認為上半年客戶數量會減少，是否會出現使用率不足的情況？您預計這次調整的幅度有多大？

Okay. Randy, please allow me to summarize your first question. So I think, Randy the first part -- his first question is in looking at TSMC's third quarter guidance and also looking at our full year growth to be mid-30s. He's wondering, I believe, Randy, how to reconcile this with our expectation of the inventory adjustment in the second half and also into the first half next year. So how do we reconcile our view on the inventory cycle against our own business? Is that correct, Randy?

好的。蘭迪，請容許我總結你的第一個問題。所以我認為，蘭迪，第一部分——他的第一個問題是看看台積電的第三季指引，並看看我們的全年成長率是否達到 35% 左右。蘭迪，我相信，他想知道如何將這一點與我們對明年下半年以及上半年庫存調整的期望相協調。那麼，我們如何協調我們對庫存週期的看法與我們自己的業務？對嗎，蘭迪？

Yes. That's correct. Just an initial view on first half. How much correction you're aiming for in your business?

是的。沒錯。這只是對上半部的初步看法。您希望在業務中做出多少調整？

Randy, this is C.C. Wei. Let me answer your question. Yes, we do have mid-30s growth in this year. But we also expect our customers start to take action to decrease their inventory level. How far? We expect that a few quarters, at least into the first half of 2023, they will continue to do the inventory correction. And these are awarded to TSMC's evaluation, let me say that. Despite ongoing inventory adjustment and macro uncertainties, the structural growth trajectory in the long-term semiconductor demand remained firm. With our leading and differentiated advance and specialty technologies and a strong HPC portfolio and strategic customer relationships, we expect our capacity remain tight and our business to be more resilient. And we are confident in both our near-term and long-term growth outlook. Did that answer your question?

蘭迪，這是 C.C.韋。讓我來回答你的問題。是的，今年我們的成長率確實達到了 35% 左右。但我們也希望客戶開始採取行動來降低他們的庫存水準。多遠?我們預計未來幾個季度，至少到 2023 年上半年，他們將繼續進行庫存調整。這些都是對台積電的評價，我這麼說吧。儘管庫存調整和宏觀不確定性持續存在，但長期半導體需求的結構性成長軌跡仍然穩固。憑藉我們領先且差異化的先進和專業技術、強大的 HPC 產品組合和策略客戶關係，我們預計我們的產能將保持緊張，我們的業務將更具彈性。我們對近期和長期的成長前景都充滿信心。這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes. I mean, to clarify, do you expect even through first half to remain tight, factoring in your tech position and some of the projects you have?

是的。我的意思是，澄清一下，考慮到您的技術地位和一些項目，您是否預計上半年的情況仍然緊張？

Yes. We remain.

是的。我們留下來。

So I think Randy wants to ask, in the first half of next year, do we expect -- how do we see our capacity utilization given the ongoing inventory adjustment?

所以我認為蘭迪想問的是，在明年上半年，我們預期——考慮到正在進行的庫存調整，我們如何看待我們的產能利用率？

I cannot give you exactly the number that we are talking about, but let me say, it's hearsay. Okay.

我無法給出我們所談論的確切數字，但是我要說的是，這只是傳聞。好的。

Okay. Great. My second question, on the CapEx, 2 parts. Just want to understand the push-outs, a little more what it's affecting the 3-nanometer. How much ramp the 5-nanometer or mature nodes? And if you could also discuss the framework for next year's CapEx. I think you've made comments about we could be above TWD 40 billion. If you could give a framework for how you're thinking about next year CapEx.

好的。偉大的。我的第二個問題是關於資本支出，分為兩部分。只是想進一步了解這種推出現像以及它對​​ 3 奈米有何影響。 5奈米或成熟節點的提升幅度有多大？您還可以討論一下明年資本支出的框架嗎？我記得您曾說過我們可能會超過 400 億新台幣。如果您能給出一個關於明年資本支出的思考框架的話。

Okay. So Randy's second question is on the CapEx. He wants to know, with some of the tool delivery issues, the CapEx pushout, is this more for 3-nanometer? Is this for 5-nanometer? Or is this more on the mature node side? And he also wants to know how does this impact our CapEx for 2023. As we said before, that 2023 could be TWD 40 billion or higher.

好的。蘭迪的第二個問題是關於資本支出。他想知道，由於一些工具交付問題，資本支出增加，這是否更適合 3 奈米？這是針對 5 奈米的嗎？還是這更多是在成熟節點方面？他也想知道這對我們 2023 年的資本支出有何影響。

Okay. Randy, this is Wendell. The first question, as C.C. said in his prepared remarks, that the schedule, the tool delivery schedule changes currently as -- in both the advanced and the mature nodes. Okay. And your second question is about next year's CapEx. It's too early to talk about next year's CapEx. But as we always said, we invest the CapEx in the year for the future opportunities. So as long as the -- the outlook, the future outlook is good, we will continue to invest, but of course, in a disciplined manner.

好的。蘭迪，這是溫德爾。第一個問題，如 C.C.他在準備好的發言中表示，無論是在高級節點還是在成熟節點，工具交付時間表目前都會發生變化。好的。您的第二個問題是關於明年的資本支出。現在談論明年的資本支出還為時過早。但正如我們常說的那樣，我們今年的投資是為了未來的機會。因此，只要未來的前景良好，我們就會繼續投資，但當然要以有紀律的方式。

Okay. And just for this year, with the pushout, what's your expectation for how much this year would be? And that's my final question.

好的。就今年而言，隨著推遲，您預計今年的規模會是多少？這是我的最後一個問題。

I think next year will be too early. But I can tell you that this year, it will be closer to the lower end of our previous guidance.

我認為明年還太早。但我可以告訴你，今年它將更接近我們之前預期的低端。

So closer to the lower end of the guidance of TWD 40 billion to TWD 44 billion, Randy.

因此，蘭迪，這更接近 400 億至 440 億新台幣的指導價下限。

Next one to ask questions is Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一個提問的是高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Congratulations for the great result. I think maybe have said that the next few years, the revenue growth will still at the 15% to 20% growth, and it is driven by -- of the compound -- dollar content growth. Can you -- this is actually the most difficult part for the investor or the biggest discrepancy when we talk to the investor, how much is driven by the dollar content growth? Because investors do not really see that. So for example, by 50% to 20% growth for the next few years, how much is driven by dollar content growth? How much is driven by shipment? Or how much is driven by the ASP or product mix improvement?

恭喜您取得優異的成績。我想也許可以說未來幾年營收成長仍將保持在 15% 至 20% 之間，而且是由複合美元內容成長所推動的。您能否——這實際上是投資者最困難的部分，或者我們與投資者交談時最大的分歧，有多少是由美元內容增長推動的？因為投資者並沒有真正看到這一點。那麼舉例來說，未來幾年50％到20％的成長中，有多少是由美元內容成長推動的？有多少是由出貨量推動的？或者有多少是由 ASP 或產品組合改進所推動的？

Okay. Let me -- Bruce, thank you. Let me summarize your first question. So Bruce is really looking at our long-term growth. We said that between -- we will grow between 15% to 20% CAGR in the next several years. He wants to know, out of this 15% to 20%, how much is driven by silicon content? How much is driven by, Bruce, I think you said shipment? How much is driven by ASP?

好的。讓我——布魯斯，謝謝你。讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。所以布魯斯確實關注的是我們的長期發展。我們說過，未來幾年我們的複合年增長率將達到 15% 到 20%。他想知道，這15%到20%中，有多少是由矽含量驅動的？布魯斯，我想你說的是出貨量，這其中有多少是被驅動的？有多少是由 ASP 驅動的？

Bruce, let me answer the question. But exactly the number, I cannot share with you because it's confidential. But let me say that. The content increase actually is at least mid- to high single digit for our end devices. And then even all the electronics devices, even the growth is flattish or some kind of a low single-digit. It's still growing. It's still growing. And combined with all these and our value selling with our customer, so we are confident to say 15% to 20% CAGR is achievable. Okay.

布魯斯，讓我來回答這個問題。但具體的數字我不能告訴你們，因為這是機密。但請讓我這麼說。對於我們的終端設備而言，內容的增加實際上至少是中高個位數。甚至所有電子設備，其成長都是持平的，或者是某種低個位數。它還在增長。它還在增長。結合所有這些以及我們向客戶銷售的價值，我們有信心說可以實現 15% 至 20% 的複合年增長率。好的。

Okay. So to my next question is for the mature node and the specialty capacity expansion. I think Chairman recently commented that you will expand your mature node that specialized capacity by 50%, 5-0, in the next 3 years. I mean, this number looks a bit big. I mean can you tell us how do you achieve this 50% capacity expansion by the new capacity or conversion? And where are those demand? How do you see the mature node supply and the demand in the coming few years?

好的。所以我的下一個問題是關於成熟節點和專業容量擴展。我記得主席最近評論說，你們將在未來 3 年內將成熟節點的專業化產能擴大 50%，也就是 5-0。我的意思是，這個數字看起來有點大。我的意思是，您能告訴我們您是如何透過新增產能或轉換實現 50% 產能擴張的嗎？那麼這些需求又在哪裡呢？您如何看待未來幾年成熟節點的供應和需求？

Okay. Bruce, let me summarize your second question, please. All right. So Bruce's second question is on mature node and specialty capacity expansion. He is looking to say TSMC expanding our mature node specialty capacity by 50%. That looks very big. Is that all new capacity expansion? Is some of this also coming from logic conversion to specialty? And then also, what applications are driving this?

好的。布魯斯，請讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。好的。所以 Bruce 的第二個問題是關於成熟節點和專業產能擴展。他希望台積電能將成熟節點專業產能擴大 50%。看起來很大。這都是新的產能擴張嗎？其中一些是否也來自邏輯向專業的轉換？那麼，哪些應用程式可以推動這一點呢？

Well, let me answer the question. 50% increase, we mean that 50% is in specialty technologies capacity. It doesn't mean the overall capacity increase. Okay. We did this because of our customers' need, and we work closely to support the growth. So it's not a 50% increase in the logic capacity, no. It's specialties.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。成長50%，我們的意思是50%是在專業技術能力方面。這並不意味著整體產能增加。好的。我們這樣做是因為我們的客戶需要，並且我們密切合作以支持成長。因此，邏輯容量並沒有增加 50%。這是特色。

And if I may add a little bit. The expansion also includes both the new capacity and conversion of existing capacity.

我可以補充一點。此次擴建還包括新增產能和現有產能的轉換。

So how confident you are, I mean, in terms of this kind of capacity expansion, what kind of application which will give you confidence to -- for this kind of increase? So because in the past like 20 years, your capacity expansion is mostly in the advanced node?

那麼，我的意思是，就這種容量擴張而言，您有多大信心，什麼樣的應用可以讓您有信心實現這種成長？那麼因為在過去的20年裡，你們的產能擴張主要是在高階節點？

So Bruce wants to know what is keeping TSMC confident to have such expansion on the specialty technologies as most of our expansion in the past has been focused on the advanced nodes.

因此，布魯斯想知道是什麼讓台積電有信心在專業技術上進行如此大的擴張，因為我們過去的大部分擴張都集中在先進節點上。

Bruce, you are right. In the past years, TSMC always increased the leading-edge capacity. We did not increase any specialties in the past few years, except a few upgrade from logic to specialty. But this time, it's different. First, because we can see the silicon content continue to increase on all the edge devices. It's not -- it's included on the demand on the leading-edge capacity. It also require the specialties content inside. And so at the urge of our customers' request, TSMC closely work with our customer and to expand our specialty capacities. Okay. How confident? Very, very confident.

布魯斯，你說得對。過去幾年，台積電一直在不斷提升領先產能。這幾年我們沒有增加什麼專業，除了一些專業從邏輯升級到專業。但這次不同。首先，因為我們可以看到所有邊緣設備上的矽含量持續增加。不是——它包括對前沿容量的需求。它還需要裡面的專業內容。因此，應客戶的要求，台積電與客戶密切合作，擴大我們的專業產能。好的。有多自信？非常非常有信心。

Next one to ask question, Sunny Lin from UBS.

下一個提問的是瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

Congrats on the strong results. So my first question is on the semi cycle, earlier, that you have done some scenario analysis on the semi cycle for 2023. So I just wonder what your current base case for semi growth for 2023. Do you think it will be like a typical down cycle like in 2015, 2019? Or would it be a more meaningful correction?

恭喜您取得如此優異的成績。所以我的第一個問題 所以我想知道您目前對 2023 年半週期增長的基本情況是什麼。或者這會是更有意義的修正？

Okay. Sunny's first question is on the semiconductor cycle. She wants to know what is TSMC's base case for 2023. Do we think it will be more of a typical cycle such as in 2015 or 2019? Or it will be more of a meaningful correction, I believe, are her words.

好的。 Sunny 的第一個問題是關於半導體週期的。她想知道台積電 2023 年的基本情況是什麼。或者我相信這將是一個更有意義的糾正，這是她的話。

Yes. Sunny, yes, our base case is a typical -- more of a typical down cycle. The inventory correction maybe go for a few quarters, through the first half of 2023. It's not like a big down cycle back in 2008 or something like that.

是的。桑尼，是的，我們的基本情況是一個典型的——更典型的下行週期。庫存調整可能會持續幾個季度，到 2023 年上半年。

Got it. And so my second question is on 3-nanometer. As we are ramping up the technology in second half, how should we think about the revenue contribution into 2023? In terms of profitability, will the 3-nanometer ramp-up have any impact into Q4 or if the impact will be mostly from Q1 next year?

知道了。我的第二個問題是關於 3 奈米的。由於我們在下半年正在加大科技投入，我們該如何考慮 2023 年的營收貢獻？就獲利能力而言，3 奈米產能提升會對第四季度產生影響嗎？

Okay. So Sunny's second question is on 3-nanometer. With the ramp, she wants to know what type of revenue contribution from N3 in 2023. And also, with the ramp of N3, what would be the impact to profitability? When should we see it? And what type of impact from N3. Thank you. That's correct, right, Sunny?

好的。所以 Sunny 的第二個問題是關於 3 奈米的。隨著 N3 產量的提升，她想知道 2023 年 N3 會帶來哪些類型的收入貢獻。我們什麼時候應該能看到它？以及N3 會產生什麼樣的影響？謝謝。沒錯，對吧，Sunny？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay, Sunny. In terms of revenue contribution from N3, I have to say that, nowadays, it's less meaningful to talk about the revenue contribution of a leading node at the very beginning when we start to ramp it compared to the -- in the past because the total pie is increasing and we believe it will continue to increase. Dollar amount-wise, it's certainly bigger than the previous nodes at the very beginning stage. This is your first question. In terms of profitability dilution, we expect that it will impact between 2 to 3 percentage point in gross margins in 20 -- in the first year, 2023. Thank you.

好的，Sunny。就 N3 的收入貢獻而言，我必須說，如今，當我們開始提升 N3 的收入時，談論領先節點的收入貢獻與過去相比意義不大，因為總體份額在增加，而且我們相信它會繼續增加。從金額來看，初期肯定比前面幾個節點大。這是您的第一個問題。在獲利能力稀釋方面，我們預計它將影響 20 年（第一年，也就是 2023 年）毛利率 2 到 3 個百分點。

Now let's turn for Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

現在我們來談談摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Sorry. My first question is on the...

對不起。我的第一個問題是關於...

Gokul, sorry, you're breaking up. Can you try again? Repeat your question, please.

Gokul，對不起，你們要分手了。你能再試一次嗎？請重複一下您的問題。

Yes. Sure. So my first question -- inventory cycle.

是的。當然。我的第一個問題是庫存週期。

Gokul, so sorry. Okay. Let's try one more time because you continue to break up. Let's try one more time. If not, I will have to ask you to dial back in. Sorry. Please repeat your question again.

Gokul，很抱歉。好的。因為你繼續分手，所以我們再試一次吧。我們再試一次吧。如果沒有，我將不得不請您重新撥號。請再次重複您的問題。

Sure. Can you hear me now?

當然。現在你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. My first is investor's impact. Could you talk us a bit about what is your expectation...

好的。我的第一個是投資者的影響。您能否向我們談談您的期望？

Okay. Gokul, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Your line is very unstable. So I will ask you to please try to get back into the queue, and we'll address your question. Okay.

好的。戈庫爾，對不起。對不起。你的線路很不穩定。因此，請您嘗試重新回到隊列，然後我們會解答您的問題。好的。

Next one to ask question, Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

下一個提問的是 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I had a question on the inventory burden off that you were signaling potentially for first half '23. Can you talk more broadly about fabless days of inventory today and how you see this trending in the second half of the year? And then in terms of your outlook for the overall semi industry, what is your current view for 2022 growth and 2023 growth? And has your view changed in the last 3 months?

我對您所說的23年上半年可能出現的庫存負擔有一個疑問。您能否更廣泛地談談目前無晶圓廠庫存天數的情況以及您認為今年下半年的趨勢如何？那麼，就您對整個半導體產業的展望而言，您目前對 2022 年和 2023 年的成長有何看法？在過去 3 個月中，您的觀點有改變嗎？

Okay. So Brett's first question is looking at inventory and the overall industry. So his first question is about the inventory adjustment. We have said that it will likely be through first half 2023. So what do we see for the fabless DOI trending in second half of this year?

好的。因此，布雷特的第一個問題是查看庫存和整個行業。所以他的第一個問題是關於庫存調整。我們說過這很可能會持續到 2023 年上半年。

Yes. Yes, Brett. We expect the fabless DOI to come down in the second half of the year gradually. And your second question?

是的。是的，布雷特。我們預計無晶圓廠的DOI將在下半年逐漸下降。您的第二個問題呢？

Come down throughout second half of this year. Correct.

今年下半年將會下降。正確的。

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

And then the second part of his question is -- Brett, sorry, again, your second part is looking at the industry, what is our current view on the semiconductor industry for 2022 and 2023? And how has our forecast changed or not?

然後他問題的第二部分是——布雷特，抱歉，你的第二部分是關於行業，我們目前對 2022 年和 2023 年半導體行業的看法是什麼？我們的預測是否改變了？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Well, let me answer the question. Our forecast for the semiconductor exclude memory and the forecast on the foundry growth in 2022 remain the same as we projected earlier. For 2023, it's too early to forecast. But as we said, the inventory correction will continue to go on. And for TSMC, because our technology position is much stronger today and we also have a very strong portfolio in HPC and we have a long-term strategic relationship with customer, so we see 2023, even just inventory correction, is still a growth year for TSMC.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。我們對半導體（不包括記憶體）的預測以及對 2022 年代工成長的預測與我們先前的預測保持一致。對於 2023 年來說，現在預測還為時過早。但正如我們所說，庫存調整將繼續進行。對於台積電而言，由於我們今天的技術地位更加強大，我們在 HPC 方面也有非常強大的產品組合，並且我們與客戶建立了長期的戰略關係，因此我們認為 2023 年，即使只是庫存調整，對台積電來說仍然是增長的一年。

Okay. Jeff, can I just have a second question? Is that possible?

好的。傑夫，我可以問第二個問題嗎？這可能嗎？

Sure. One more second question. Yes.

當然。再問一個問題。是的。

So we've been hearing from some other leading-edge chip manufacturers that they are looking at the opportunity to work with project financing companies when it comes to new fab builds. I think companies at Brookfield has been mentioned. How does TSMC view this trend? And is there a fab rental model or a way to reduce the free cash flow burden in this industry as you bring on new fabs?

我們從其他一些領先的晶片製造商那裡聽說，他們正在尋找在新晶圓廠建設方面與專案融資公司合作的機會。我認為布魯克菲爾德的公司已經被提及了。台積電如何看待這個趨勢？當您引入新晶圓廠時，是否存在晶圓廠租賃模式或減少該行業自由現金流負擔的方法？

All right. So Brett second question is, he wants to know what is TSMC's view. His observation is other companies in the industry are using project financing to build new fabs, this new fab rental model. So what is TSMC's view on this?

好的。所以 Brett 的第二個問題是，他想知道台積電的看法是什麼。他的觀察是，業內其他公司正在利用專案融資來建造新晶圓廠，這是新的晶圓廠租賃模式。那麼台積電對此有何看法？

Brett, we are not considering project financing now. Normally, project financing entails stringent, stricter terms and higher costs. We will finance the expansion mainly from our operating cash flow and borrowing using our strong balance sheet. That's our current policy.

布雷特，我們現在不考慮專案融資。通常，專案融資的條款較為嚴格，成本也較高。我們將主要利用我們的營運現金流和利用我們強勁的資產負債表的借款來為擴張提供資金。這就是我們的現行政策。

Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一個提問的是摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

And also, congratulations for great results. So my first question is about your HPC and high end smartphone demand, because our view is that the macro slowdown or recession should impact the core CapEx and the high consumption. So management, do you think that the so-called inventory digestion will sooner or later apply to your data center semi customers and the high-end smartphone customers order in the coming quarters?

同時，恭喜您取得的優異成績。所以我的第一個問題是關於你們的 HPC 和高階智慧型手機需求，因為我們認為宏觀經濟放緩或衰退應該會影響核心資本支出和高消費。那麼管理層，您是否認為所謂的庫存消化遲早會在未來幾季適用於您的資料中心半客戶和高階智慧型手機客戶的訂單？

Okay. So Charlie's first question is looking at the inventory adjustment in light of the macro slowdown. He wants to know, do we believe or see impact to cloud service provider CapEx or high-end smartphone sort of to have inventory adjustment next? Is that correct, Charlie?

好的。因此，查理的第一個問題是根據宏觀經濟放緩來看待庫存調整。他想知道，我們是否相信或看到雲端服務供應商資本支出或高階智慧型手機的庫存調整將會產生影響？是這樣的嗎，查理？

Yes.

是的。

Charlie, this is C.C. Wei. I think to answer your question, you might think they have too much of inventory in the HPC area. But as we said, that in our life, there are so many edge devices continue to create data. And those data need to be processed. And with sufficient speed and efficient power consumption, and that require our leading-edge technology to provide the solution. So even there's a inventory correction or something like that, we expect our business to be less volatile and more resilient through the near-term uncertainties. And also, we are highly confident in our long-term growth outlook.

查理，我是 C.C.韋。我想回答你的問題，你可能會認為他們在 HPC 領域的庫存太多了。但正如我們所說，在我們的生活中，有如此多的邊緣設備不斷地產生數據。這些數據需要被處理。並且具有足夠的速度和高效的功耗，這需要我們領先的技術來提供解決方案。因此，即使出現庫存調整或類似情況，我們預計我們的業務波動性會更小，並且在短期的不確定性中更具彈性。而且我們對我們的長期成長前景非常有信心。

Yes. Yes. So how about the high-end smartphone inventory correction? Do you expect that top brand inventory -- smartphone inventory to see correction as well on the semiconductor demand?

是的。是的。那麼高階智慧型手機庫存調整情況如何？您是否預期頂級品牌庫存－智慧型手機庫存也會因半導體需求而出現調整？

So Charlie also wants to know, do we expect high-end smartphone inventory correction on the semi demand?

所以 Charlie 還想知道，我們是否預期高階智慧型手機庫存會因為半導體需求而出現調整？

To be frank with you, we did not see too much of inventory on the high-end smartphone buildup. So, no.

坦白說，我們並沒有看到太多的高階智慧型手機庫存。所以，不是。

Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And my second question is about your future technology demand [fulfillment], right? So either Mark or C.C., can you please help me. So this is the first time you've disclosed the N2 [DAA] logic density improvement. I think more than 20% logic density increased still better than market traders. But compared to the previous node, there's a significant slowdown. So do you think -- first of all, N2 is a full node migration. And do you think that there is a kind of a significant slowdown of Moore's law? And what does that mean to your CapEx per K for N2 versus N3? And lastly, backside power via, right? So I'm very interested in your kind of N2, what it means to your long-term technology and also CapEx.

好的。偉大的。這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於您未來的技術需求（實現），對嗎？所以 Mark 或 C.C. 能不能幫幫我？這是您第一次揭露 N2 [DAA] 邏輯密度的改進。我認為邏輯密度增加了20%以上，仍然比市場交易者更好。但與前一個節點相比，速度明顯放緩。那麼您認為－首先，N2 是一次全節點遷移。您是否認為摩爾定律的運行速度出現了明顯放緩？那麼，這對於 N2 和 N3 的每 K 資本支出意味著什麼？最後，背面有電源通孔，對嗎？所以我對您的 N2 非常感興趣，它對您的長期技術和資本支出意味著什麼。

Okay. Maybe I'll summarize Charlie's second question into few different parts. His first question is on N2 technology. And he notes that the logic density gain is more than 20%. But does this represent a significant slowdown, especially in the context of Moore's Law? And what does this mean for technology as a whole? Maybe Chairman can address.

好的。也許我會將查理的第二個問題總結成幾個不同的部分。他的第一個問題是關於 N2 技術。他指出邏輯密度增益超過20%。但這是否代表著顯著的放緩，特別是在摩爾定律的背景下？這對於整個技術意味著什麼？也許主席可以致詞。

Let me answer your question. First of all, C.C. just mentioned, our N2 will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry when it is introduced, because this technology, we work closely with our customers, and about -- regarding the scaling factor included. But Charlie, we -- from now on, we have to look at the technology in a platform fashion. The N2 technology is not just the wafer scaling. The N2 technology include transistor scaling, but also include the new power line structure and also include a new chiplet technology to allow the more architectural innovation in our customers.

讓我來回答你的問題。首先，C.C.剛才提到了，我們的N2在推出的時候，會是業界最先進的半導體技術，因為這個技術，我們跟客戶有密切的合作，包括縮放因子。但是查理，從現在開始，我們必須以平台的方式看待科技。 N2技術不只是晶圓微縮。 N2 技術包括電晶體縮放，還包括新的電源線結構，還包括新的晶片技術，以便為我們的客戶提供更多的架構創新。

So this is a whole set of technology offering composed to be N2 nanometer. The scaling factor is smaller, but we really know the customers' needs is -- today is really about the power efficiency. And this will be a full node power efficiency migration. And to control the cost, that is the reason we control the scaling factor while maintain the same value for the new generation of technology. So that's my report, yes.

所以這是由N2奈米組成的一整套技術。比例因子較小，但我們確實知道客戶的需求是－今天真正關心的是電源效率。這將是一次完整節點的能效遷移。為了控製成本，這就是我們控制縮放因子而對新一代技術保持相同值的原因。是的，這就是我的報告。

Great. And also Charlie is asking about the backside power on N2.

偉大的。 Charlie 也詢問了 N2 的背面電源。

Okay. Let me add some viewpoint. On the backside power delivery, actually, we call the super power rail is part of our N2 platform offering. And at the proper time, who are introduced to the market whenever our customer need it.

好的。讓我補充一些觀點。實際上，在背面電力傳輸方面，我們稱超級電力軌為我們 N2 平台產品的一部分。並在適當的時候，每當我們的客戶需要時，我們就會將其推向市場。

Yes. So if you put that together, right, it seems like lower -- you have this power via -- what does that mean to your CapEx burden in the coming years?

是的。所以如果你把它們放在一起，對吧，它似乎更低 - 你透過這種力量擁有這種權力 - 這對你未來幾年的資本支出負擔意味著什麼？

Next one to ask questions, Laura Chen from Citigroup.

下一位提問的是花旗集團的 Laura Chen。

Congrats for the good result. My first question is about your view on the key applications. Actually, starting from the last quarter, we already see that high computing PC has been the key categories for TSMC. So I'm just wondering your view from on the -- from various architecture, like ARM-based or X86, can you share with our view that what will be the key driver for TSMC for the next few years? Do you see there will be more from the ARM-based CPU or more upside from X86 ARM?

恭喜你取得好成績。我的第一個問題是關於您對關鍵應用的看法。實際上，從上個季度開始，我們已看到高運算PC已成為台積電的重點產品類別。所以我只是想知道您對各種架構（例如基於 ARM 或 X86）的看法，您能否與我們分享一下未來幾年台積電的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？您認為 ARM 架構的 CPU 會具有更大的發展空間還是 X86 ARM 會具有更大的發展空間？

And also, on the smartphone space, I recall that in the previous analyst call, you mentioned that penetration rate for the 5G, do you expect there will be about like 50%. But given the weak demand growth, well, what's your latest view on the 5G smartphone penetration? That's my first question.

另外，在智慧型手機領域，我記得在之前的分析師電話會議上，您提到了 5G 的普及率，您預計會達到 50% 左右嗎？但鑑於需求成長疲軟，您對 5G 智慧型手機普及率的最新看法是什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. So Laura's first question. First, she wants to know on HPC. She notes HPC has become the largest contributor by platform to our revenue. So she wants to know what -- when we look out over the next several years, how do we see HPC? Is this driven by ARM-based or -- versus x86. I think that's the first part of her first question.

好的。這是勞拉的第一個問題。首先，她想了解 HPC。她指出，HPC 已成為我們收入的最大貢獻者。所以她想知道——當我們展望未來幾年時，我們如何看待 HPC？這是由基於 ARM 的驅動還是——與 x86 相比？我認為這是她第一個問題的第一部分。

Laura, our HPC definitely is growing here. And since TSMC, everybody's foundry, so we support both X86 and ARM-based for what you say for the high-performance computing, both. And both are significantly growing in TSMC.

勞拉，我們的 HPC 在這裡確實在發展。由於台積電是全球最大的晶片代工廠，所以我們同時支援 X86 和 ARM 架構，以實現高效能運算。這兩家公司在台積電都實現了顯著成長。

And then she also wants to -- sorry?

然後她還想——對不起？

Yes. It seems like TSMC already has a very high exposure on the ARM base. So can we expect the next few years the growth driver to more come from the X86?

是的。看來台積電在 ARM 基礎上已經擁有非常高的曝光率。那麼我們是否可以預期未來幾年的成長動力更多來自X86？

Can I answer this question? We have very high exposure to X86 also.

我可以回答這個問題嗎？我們對 X86 的了解也非常多。

Laura, I think we have said numerous times and it still remains -- holds true that HPC will be the largest contributor and increasingly the main driver of TSMC's growth over the next several years.

勞拉，我想我們已經說過很多次了，而且這一點仍然是正確的——HPC 將成為未來幾年台積電增長的最大貢獻者，並日益成為主要驅動力。

Yes. And Laura, your second question is the 5G smartphone penetration rate. We're still looking at about 50% at this moment.

是的。蘿拉，你的第二個問題是 5G 智慧型手機普及率。目前我們仍然關注 50% 左右。

Okay. And if I can add the second question about the gross margin outlook. I think 59% is really amazing. And considering your CapEx discipline and the consistent delivery in advanced node or maybe price hike as well, can we expect that will have more upside to your current 53% gross margin target?

好的。我可以補充第二個問題，關於毛利率前景。我認為59%已經非常驚人了。考慮到您的資本支出紀律和先進節點的持續交付或價格上漲，我們是否可以預期這將比您目前 53% 的毛利率目標有更大的上升空間？

So Laura's second question is on the gross margin. She notes that gross margin for second quarter, 59.1%, is very high. So is there upside to our long-term gross margin target of 53% and higher?

勞拉的第二個問題是關於毛利率的。她指出，第二季的毛利率達到 59.1%，非常高。那麼，我們的長期毛利率目標是否還有上升空間，達到 53% 甚至更高？

Laura, as we mentioned before, there are 6 factors that affect our profitability every year. Excluding the foreign exchange rate, of which we do not have any control on, the other factors taking into consideration, we are confident that a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable. And we certainly -- we'll try to work hard to deliver better than that.

勞拉，正如我們之前提到的，每年有 6 個因素影響我們的獲利能力。除去我們無法控制的外匯匯率，考慮到其他因素，我們有信心實現53%以上的長期毛利率。我們當然會努力做到更好。

Next one, we have Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

下一位是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Let me try again. My first question is on the U.S. expansion. There have been a lot of commentary around very high cost for U.S. expansion. I think Founder, Chairman -- the U.S. perhaps compared to Taiwan. Could you talk a little bit about the U.S. expansion and how they are going? What kind of cost differential is TSMC seeing? And what is your negotiations with the Arizona government as well as customers in terms of filling up the cost differential? That's my first.

讓我再試一次。我的第一個問題是關於美國擴張的。關於美國擴張成本極高的評論很多。我認為創辦人、董事長——美國可能與台灣相比。您能否談談美國業務的擴張情況以及進展如何？台積電看到了什麼樣的成本差異？在填補成本差異方面，您與亞利桑那州政府和客戶的談判情況如何？這是我的第一次。

Okay. Gokul, I have to say again, you're breaking in and out. Let me try to summarize your question, make sure I -- we got it right. So Gokul's first question is about our U.S. fab. He notes that the cost is higher. Our founder has recently said this as well. So Gokul, I think your question, again, you broke up, I think your question is about how do we manage the -- how will we manage the cost gap and close the cost gap? Is that your question?

好的。 Gokul，我不得不再說一遍，你正在闖進闖出。讓我試著總結一下你的問題，確保我們的回答正確。 Gokul 的第一個問題是關於我們美國工廠的。他指出成本較高。我們的創辦人最近也說過同樣的話。所以 Gokul，我認為你的問題，再一次，你分手了，我認為你的問題是關於我們如何管理 - 我們將如何管理成本差距並縮小成本差距？這是你的問題嗎？

What is your discussions and negotiation with customers and governments regarding higher cost as well as subsidies?

您與客戶和政府就提高成本以及補貼的討論和談判是怎樣的？

So okay. Thank you, Gokul. So Gokul wants to know, with the higher cost, how are negotiations and discussions with governments? How are negotiations and discussions with customers about this cost differential?

好吧。謝謝你，Gokul。因此，Gokul 想知道，在成本較高的情況下，與政府的談判和討論情況如何？就這個成本差異和客戶談判情況如何？

Okay. Gokul, yes. Yes, I did mention that the cost in the fab in the U.S. is higher than we expected. We are still in the construction stage of the fab. And during this past 2 years, we found that the labor cost in the States is higher than we planned. And also, some of the COVID supply chain interruption also was unexpected. And thus -- we did confer this information to the government at the location, give them a full perspective of the cost gap.

好的。戈庫爾，是的。是的，我確實提到美國晶圓廠的成本比我們預期的要高。我們仍處於晶圓廠的建造階段。而且在過去的兩年裡，我們發現美國的勞動成本比我們計畫的還要高。此外，部分 COVID 供應鏈中斷也是意料之外的。因此——我們確實將這些資訊提供給當地政府，讓他們全面了解成本差距。

But Gokul, is indeed the -- our customer in U.S., they all want to load that fab. I mean, this is the needs from our customers. And we also believe there is ample -- amplify our business opportunity there. So the cost is increasing, but cost is not the only factors. And we are still working on the government subsidy and we'll continue working on the cost reduction. And every company have different ways to reduce the cost. So that is the work in the process.

但 Gokul 確實是我們在美國的客戶，他們都想裝載該晶圓廠。我的意思是，這是我們客戶的需求。我們也相信那裡有充足的——擴大我們的商業機會。因此成本在增加，但成本並不是唯一因素。我們仍在努力爭取政府補貼，並繼續努力降低成本。而且每個公司都有不同的方法來降低成本。這就是正在進行的工作。

My second question, would the TSMC consider any kind of a joint venture fab in the U.S. with potential large customers? Historically, TSMC has done this with some of the customers like Altera and NXP long back. Would you consider any kind of joint venture fabs potentially with any of the customers in the U.S. if the outsourcing opportunity is big enough?

我的第二個問題是，台積電是否會考慮在美國與潛在的大客戶建立合資工廠？從歷史上看，台積電很早以前就與 Altera 和 NXP 等一些客戶合作過。如果外包機會夠大，您是否會考慮與美國的任何客戶建立任何形式的合資工廠？

Okay. So Gokul's second question is, again, would TSMC consider any type of joint venture fab in the U.S. for outsourcing? He notes we have done certain JVs in the past. So is this something we will consider in the U.S. for outsourcing opportunities?

好的。因此，Gokul 的第二個問題是，台積電是否會考慮在美國建立任何類型的合資晶圓廠進行外包？他指出，我們過去曾建立過一些合資企業。那麼我們是否會考慮在美國尋找外包機會呢？

Yes. Let me answer this question again. This -- our -- yes, TSMC indeed has some joint venture arrangement maybe 20 years ago within U.S. But right now, we understand -- with that experience, we understand, our customers' demand will go up and down. And we don't -- and also, we don't want to limit this fab into a specific set of customers. It's open to the RO customers base to utilize. So no, at this point, we do not plan to have a joint venture arrangement in the U.S.

是的。我再回答一下這個問題吧。是的，台積電大約 20 年前確實在美國有過一些合資安排。我們不會——而且，我們也不想將這個晶圓廠限制在一組特定的客戶。它向 RO 客戶群開放，可供使用。所以，目前，我們還沒有計劃在美國建立合資企業。

Next one to ask question, Charles Shi from Needham and Company.

下一個提問的是 Needham and Company 的 Charles Shi。

I want to go back, a quick clarification about N3 gross margin. You kind of mentioned, probably first time quantified how much dilution you're expecting, 2% to 3%? Can you let us know dilution relative to which number because there is one long-term gross margin number to see, 3% and higher, and there is another one which is where your gross margin is tracking. That's a few points above your long-term target. This is kind of a little bit moving target here. So can you clarify with us?

我想回過頭來快速澄清一下 N3 毛利率。您有提到過，可能第一次量化了您預期的稀釋度，2% 到 3%？您能否讓我們知道相對於哪個數字的稀釋，因為有一個長期的毛利率數字需要查看，即 3％及更高，還有另一個數字是您的毛利率所跟踪的。這比你的長期目標高出幾個百分點。這有點像是一個移動的目標。那您能向我們解釋一下嗎？

So Charles is asking if we can clarify our gross margin target. His question, well, I think, again, when we talk about N3 diluting 2% to 3%, it is for the first year, right, which is 2023. And so he's wondering I think -- Charles, your question is, does this dilution continue? Does this change our long-term gross margin target? And more -- maybe more, I think he is thinking about what are the gross -- yes, sorry, let me stop there. Is that your question, Charles?

因此，查爾斯詢問我們是否可以明確我們的毛利率目標。他的問題是，嗯，我認為，當我們談論 N3 將 2% 稀釋到 3% 時，這是第一年，對吧，也就是 2023 年。這會改變我們的長期毛利率目標嗎？而且更多 — — 可能更多，我想他在想什麼是總量 — — 是的，抱歉，讓我就此打住。這是你的問題嗎，查爾斯？

No. No. The 2% to 3% dilution relative to what, is my question. Is it relative to your long-term growth target, 2% to 3% and higher, or where you're tracking, which is 59%, 58%, yes, that's my question.

不，不。這是否與您的長期成長目標有關，2% 到 3% 甚至更高，或您追蹤的 59%、58%，是的，這是我的問題。

So Charles is asking, when we talk about 2% to 3% dilution, are we looking at 53% diluting from there? Or are we looking at 59% diluting from here?

因此查爾斯問道，當我們談論 2% 到 3% 的稀釋時，我們是否在考慮從那裡稀釋 53%？或者我們現在看到的是 59% 的稀釋度？

Charles, it's diluting from next year's gross margin as we forecast. It's neither 53% nor 59%. Bear in mind that when we talk about 53% and higher, it already included the dilution effects from the N3 dilutions.

查爾斯，正如我們預測的那樣，這會降低明年的毛利率。既不是53%，也不是59%。請記住，當我們談論 53% 及更高時，它已經包括了 N3 稀釋的稀釋效應。

Okay, Charles? Do you have a second question?

好的，查爾斯？您還有第二個問題嗎？

I do. I have a more long-term question. Thank you, Chairman, for mentioning N2 useful package, which that includes chiplets. I want to specifically ask you about chiplets. I think you recently talked about expanding SoIC capacity by 20x through 2026. That's quite a big amount of capacity application. I think one year ago, you sort of mentioned SoIC is something you're targeting for high-performance computing application. But given the amount of capacity increases you're planning, any updated thoughts on whether that can be a technology possibly at N2 and use for smartphone platform? Any other color you can give us would be great.

我願意。我有一個更長期的問題。謝謝主席提到 N2 實用封裝，其中包括小晶片。我想特別問您關於 chiplet 的問題。我記得您最近談到到 2026 年將 SoIC 容量擴大 20 倍。我想一年前您曾經提到 SoIC 是您針對高效能運算應用程式所針對的目標。但是考慮到您計劃的容量增加量，您有什麼最新的想法嗎？如果您能給我們任何其他顏色那就太好了。

Okay. So Charles second question is on 3DIC. He notes that, in particular, we are talking about SoIC and also expanding the capacity there. We have said in the past, this is primarily adopted by HPC applications. His question is, with such capacity expansion, do we also expect smartphone customers to adopt 3DIC solutions like SoIC at some point in the future? Is that correct, Charles?

好的。查爾斯的第二個問題是關於 3DIC 的問題。他特別指出，我們正在討論 SoIC，並且也在擴大那裡的產能。我們過去曾說過，這主要被 HPC 應用程式採用。他的問題是，隨著產能的擴大，我們是否也預期智慧型手機客戶在未來某個時候也會採用像 SoIC 這樣的 3DIC 解決方案？查爾斯，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Let me answer this question, Charles. So far, the SoIC is primarily adopted by the HPC applications, okay. Because of -- that it's very fit for their high-speed and power efficient. But for mobile adoption, it will depend on their chiplet's architecture, interconnect density requirement, thermal or other requirement. And we will have other solution to address the mobile requirement.

好的。讓我來回答這個問題，查爾斯。到目前為止，SoIC 主要被 HPC 應用程式採用，好的。因為——它非常適合它們的高速和節能。但對於行動應用而言，這將取決於其晶片的架構、互連密度要求、熱要求或其他要求。我們也會推出其他解決方案來滿足行動需求。

Next one to ask question, Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna International.

下一個提問的是 Susquehanna International 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I just want to go back to the CapEx. I think the Chairman has guided back in 2021, the shipment guided to TWD 100 billion of CapEx during the 2021 through 2023 period. And now this morning, you're highlighting the fact that CapEx this year could be TWD 40 billion. So if I was to use the TWD 100 billion, the bogie suggests to me that your CapEx could be down by as much as 8% to 10% in 2023, unless you are really that TWD 100 billion guide. I just want to get some color on this, and I have a follow-up.

我只是想回到資本支出。我認為董事長早在 2021 年就已經做出了指引，即 2021 年至 2023 年期間的資本支出將達到 1,000 億新台幣。今天上午，您強調今年的資本支出可能達到 400 億新台幣。因此，如果我使用 1000 億新台幣，那麼轉向架會告訴我，到 2023 年，你的資本支出可能會下降多達 8% 到 10%，除非你真的是 1000 億新台幣的指導價。我只是想對此進行一些說明，並且我有一個後續行動。

Okay. So Mehdi's first question is on our CapEx. He notes back in April of 2021, we had guided for TWD 100 billion CapEx in the next 3 years. And so now he's adding the math up for last year and this year, and wondering, does that apply -- sorry, imply a decline in our CapEx for 2023? Or do we have a new revised guidance for the CapEx spend?

好的。因此，Mehdi 的第一個問題是關於我們的資本支出。他指出，早在 2021 年 4 月，我們就已預期未來 3 年資本支出將達到 1,000 億新台幣。所以現在他把去年和今年的計算結果加起來，並且想知道，這是否適用——抱歉，這是否意味著我們 2023 年的資本支出會下降？或者我們對資本支出有新的修訂指導？

Mehdi, let me answer this. We're not going to talk about the TWD 100 billion today. We're not going to comment CapEx beyond 2022. We've already given the guidance range of 2022. Now as we mentioned before, every year, when we invest in CapEx, it is for the future growth opportunities. So as long as there -- we believe the future outlook is good, we will continue to invest in a disciplined manner.

梅赫迪，讓我來回答這個問題。今天我們不討論1000億新台幣的事。我們不會對 2022 年以後的資本支出發表評論。因此，只要我們相信未來前景良好，我們就會繼續以有紀律的方式進行投資。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up here. Despite the fact that CapEx was up 76% last year, 2021, the depreciation so far has been tracking flattish. It was flat in Q1, down 2% in Q2. Should I expect a big step-up in depreciation going forward?

知道了。這裡只是簡短的跟進一下。儘管去年（2021 年）資本支出增加了 76%，但迄今為止的折舊一直持平。第一季持平，第二季下降 2%。我是否應該預期未來折舊會大幅增加？

Okay. So Mehdi also wants to follow up to ask about depreciation. Despite the increase in CapEx, why is the depreciation growth pretty flattish or low so far this year? And then should we expect a step-up in depreciation for 2023?

好的。因此 Mehdi 也想跟進詢問有關折舊的問題。儘管資本支出增加，但為什麼今年迄今折舊成長相當穩定或較低？那麼，我們是否應該預期 2023 年折舊會加速？

Mehdi, every year, there are new depreciation coming in. But at the same time, there are depreciation getting out of the depreciation table. So some comes in, some goes out. This year, we expect that depreciation will grow above mid single-digits from last year. It is slower -- lower than when we guided at the beginning of the year because of some tool delivery schedule change, as C.C. mentioned earlier. Now for next year, the -- it's too early to give a specific number, but the depreciation will be much higher than this year.

梅赫迪，每年都會有新的折舊產生。所以有的人進來，有的人出去。我們預計，今年的折舊額將比去年成長個位數中段以上。正如 C.C. 所說，由於一些工具交付計劃的變化，速度比我們年初預測的要慢。前面提到過。對於明年來說，現在給出具體的數字還為時過早，但折舊幅度將比今年高得多。

Okay. And Jeff, since everyone had more than second question, may I squeeze one quick follow-up?

好的。傑夫，由於每個人都有多個問題，我可以擠出時間快速跟進嗎？

Well, you have 1.5. I'll let you another half question, please, Mehdi, because we still have a few people on the line. Yes.

嗯，你有 1.5。梅赫迪，請容許我再問您一半問題，因為我們還在線上有幾個人。是的。

Sure. I'll make it very quick. When I look at your customers, their inventories are at a 25-year high. And I think everyone is going to take a look at the seasonality in the second half. And I'm just curious, what are the key variables? What are the key metrics? Or what are the key strategies that you have in place that could mitigate the gross margin balance by this, if your customers become more aggressive in inventory correction into next year?

當然。我會很快完成。當我查看你的客戶時，發現他們的庫存處於 25 年來的最高水準。我認為每個人都會關注下半年的季節性。我很好奇，關鍵變數是什麼？關鍵指標是什麼？或者，如果您的客戶明年更積極地調整庫存，您採取了哪些關鍵策略來緩解毛利率平衡？

Okay. So Mehdi's question is noting customer inventory at customers are very high. So what would be the key variables or metrics for TSMC to mitigate our gross margin downside or risk, if customers were to adjust their inventory further? Is that correct, Mehdi?

好的。因此，Mehdi 的問題是注意到客戶的庫存非常高。那麼，如果客戶進一步調整庫存，台積電減輕毛利率下滑或風險的關鍵變數或指標是什麼？對嗎，梅迪？

Yes. If they become more aggressive in inventory correction into first half of next year.

是的。如果他們在明年上半年更積極地調整庫存。

If they were customers were to become more aggressive on their inventory correction into first half next year.

如果他們是客戶，那麼明年上半年他們將更積極地調整庫存。

Well, let me answer the question. As I stated in the remark, our customers are doing the inventory correction. But I say that customers demand still exceed the TSMC's capability to support for this year. So even they do their inventory adjustment, what I say that they decrease their demand versus their original number, TSMC's capacity is still very tight and will remain very healthy in the utilization. So that's why we can keep our gross margin intact. Did I answer your question?

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。正如我在評論中所說，我們的客戶正在進行庫存調整。但我想說的是，客戶的需求仍然超越了台積電今年的支援能力。因此，即使他們進行庫存調整，也就是說他們相對於原始數量減少了需求，台積電的產能仍然非常緊張，利用率仍將保持非常健康。這就是我們能夠維持毛利率不變的原因。我回答你的問題了嗎？

I see.

我懂了。

Next one to ask question is, Brad Lin from Bank of America.

下一個提問的是美國銀行的 Brad Lin。

So firstly, our congratulations once again on the strong earnings. And my first question is about advanced packaging. We learned the advanced packaging is very, very important for TSMC's long-term growth and TSMC has a great variety of offering to provide higher value to customers. So would you please share your insights on what are the key barriers are for wider adoption by clients? And would you expect the contribution mix to increase gradually? Or if there is a point to see an explosive growth from the advanced packaging? And by the way, we saw the news about the 3DIC recently in Japan and how will that can accelerate their progress.

首先，我們再次祝賀您取得的強勁獲利。我的第一個問題是關於先進封裝的。我們了解到先進封裝對於台積電的長期發展非常非常重要，台積電提供多種產品來為客戶提供更高的價值。那麼，您能否分享一下您對客戶更廣泛採用的主要障礙的看法？您是否希望貢獻組合逐漸增加？或者先進封裝是否會爆炸性成長？順便說一句，我們最近看到了有關日本 3DIC 的新聞，以及這將如何加速他們的進步。

Okay. So Brad's question is on advanced packaging. I believe, if I heard you correctly, what are the key barriers for wider adoption of our packaging solutions by customers? What is the long-term revenue growth outlook of advanced packaging? Is it going to be explosive growth or growth similar to the corporate average and also the role of our 3DIC center in Japan in developing advanced packaging solutions.

好的。布拉德的問題是關於先進封裝的。如果我沒聽錯的話，我相信，客戶更廣泛地採用我們的包裝解決方案的主要障礙是什麼？先進封裝的長期營收成長前景如何？這將是爆炸性成長還是類似企業平均值的成長，以及我們在日本的3DIC中心在開發先進封裝解決方案方面所發揮的作用。

Okay. That's a very long question, but let me answer one by one. First, we developed a very advised packaging technology to meet the customers' demand. So far today, 3DIC or SoIC, we develop for the high-speed performance, HPC applications first. And the other one, mostly starting to be adopted by all HPC customers starting from today. So we expect is gradually will ramp up. And until that's 2-nanometer, I think I have much more demand in that technology node for the 3DIC. That's what we expect. And we expect the growth of this 3DIC business will be healthy, probably a little bit ahead of TSMC's growth forecast. Now let me turn to the 3DIC center in Japan. We established 3DIC center because of Japan has a fundamental advantage on the raw material also under packaging area. For example, the substrate. They are the #1 in the world. And we need that one technology to complement the TSMC's 3DIC technology so we can serve our customer better. And that's why we established a 3DIC center -- technology development center over there. Did I answer your question?

好的。這個問題很長，但讓我一一回答。首先，我們開發了非常完善的包裝技術來滿足客戶的需求。到目前為止，無論是3DIC或SoIC，我們都是先針對高速效能、HPC應用進行開發的。而另一個，從今天開始基本上開始被所有 HPC 客戶所採用。因此我們預計它將逐步增加。直到 2 奈米為止，我認為對該技術節點的 3DIC 的需求會更大。這正是我們所期望的。我們預計3DIC業務的成長將會很健康，可能略高於台積電的成長預測。現在我來談談日本的 3DIC 中心。我們建立3DIC中心是因為日本在原料和封裝領域都具有根本優勢。例如基板。他們是世界第一。我們需要一種技術來補充台積電的3DIC技術，以便我們能夠更好地服務客戶。這就是我們在那裡建立 3DIC 中心（技術開發中心）的原因。我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. Yes. Very clear. So maybe another follow-up, that's also about the IC substrate. So ABF actually substrate currently plays a very important role in advance packaging, of course, especially for CoWoS and the substrate area demand potentially in largest was the increasing advanced packaging penetration. So with the rising integration level of a chip, do you expect new material to potentially replace ABF? And any plan to secure substrate supply or upgrade the designs for TSMC for future requirements? And maybe one last follow-up is that, if we compare 2.5D and 3D, would you need more substrate for 3D?

是的。是的。非常清楚。因此也許還有另一個後續問題，這也是關於 IC 基板的。因此，ABF 實際上基板目前在先進封裝中起著非常重要的作用，當然，特別是對於 CoWoS 而言，而基板面積需求可能最大的是先進封裝滲透率的不斷提高。那麼隨著晶片整合度的提高，您是否預期新材料有可能取代 ABF？有沒有計劃確保基板供應或升級台積電的設計以滿足未來的需求？也許最後一個問題是，如果我們比較 2.5D 和 3D，您是否需要更多的 3D 基板？

Okay. Well, Brad's second question is on substrates. He wants to know, with the development of substrates and the adoption, do we see further developments in terms of new materials? Will we see more substrates used in 3DIC versus 2.5D? And will we -- how do we secure the substrate supply?

好的。嗯，布拉德的第二個問題是關於基板的。他想知道，隨著基材的發展和採用，我們是否看到新材料的進一步發展？與 2.5D 相比，我們會看到 3DIC 使用的基板更多嗎？我們如何確保基板供應？

Well, this one we are working with the substrate partner. And your question is the 2D, 2.5D or 3D, both. Both are important. But let me tell you one further step. We're only interested in the very advanced technology. We are not going to develop any commodity of the substrate technology to compete in the market. No. We are developing for the very high performance computing or very large substrate to support TSMC's customer. That's our purpose.

嗯，這個我們正在與基板合作夥伴合作。您的問題是 2D、2.5D 還是 3D，兩者都是。兩者都很重要。但讓我告訴你進一步的步驟。我們只對非常先進的技術感興趣。我們不會開發任何基板技術商品來參與市場競爭。不。這就是我們的宗旨。

Next one to ask question, Krish Sankar from Cowen & Company.

下一個提問的是 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. The first one is, when I look at your full year guidance of 35% revenue growth, it looks like calendar 4Q or the December quarter is going to be sequentially down more than 10%. And that hasn't happened in a long time. So I'm kind of curious, how much of that is driven by demand versus FX? And then the second question, a follow-up is, if I look at your CapEx run rate, the first half is running at about TWD 17 billion, which is below the lower end of your full year guidance. So I'm kind of curious, what are the tool delays that's causing the pushout of CapEx into next year? Is it like EUV? Is it like depth edge tools? Any color on that would be super helpful.

我有 2 個。第一個問題是，當我看到你們全年營收成長 35% 的預期時，看起來第四季或 12 月季度的營收將環比下降 10% 以上。這樣的事已經很久沒有發生過了。所以我有點好奇，其中有多少是由需求而不是外匯驅動的？然後是第二個問題，如果我看一下你們的資本支出運作率，上半年的資本支出約為 170 億新台幣，低於你們全年預期的下限。所以我有點好奇，是什麼工具延遲導致資本支出延到明年？它像 EUV 嗎？它像深度邊緣工具嗎？任何顏色都會非常有用。

Okay. So Krish has 2 questions. First is looking at our full year guidance to grow mid-30s, and he says, this implies a decline in the fourth quarter?

好的。因此 Krish 有 2 個問題。首先，我們預計全年成長 35% 左右，而他說，這意味著第四季會下滑？

No. I don't think so. We did the calculation. Maybe you can do that again. It's at least up.

不，我不這麼認為。我們做了計算。也許你可以再做一次。至少是上漲了。

Yes. Krish, I would note that when we talk about mid-30s guidance, as C.C. said, that is in U.S. dollar terms. Okay?

是的。 Krish，我想指出，當我們談到 30 多歲的指導時，正如 C.C.也就是說，這是以美元計算的。好的？

And then his second question is on CapEx and sort of looking at the CapEx. His question is, we have already said it will be closer to the lower end of the range. He wants to know what is driving the CapEx? Is it tool delays? Is it EUV? What types of equipment?

他的第二個問題是關於資本支出 (CapEx) 以及如何看待資本支出。他的問題是，我們已經說過它將更接近該範圍的低端。他想知道是什麼推動了資本支出？是工具延遲嗎？它是EUV嗎？有哪些類型的設備？

No. I don't think we can go into that kind of details. But some of them got pushed out to next year, as C.C. mentioned. And every year, the CapEx profile can be difference quarter-by-quarter.

不，我認為我們不能談論那麼詳細。但其中一些被推遲到明年，如 C.C.提及。並且每年，資本支出狀況每季都會有所不同。

The next one to ask questions, Frank Lee from HSBC.

下一位提問的是匯豐銀行的 Frank Lee。

I wanted to just ask a question on, I guess, the overall profitability and also pricing. It seems like this year, we start to see a foundry price increase and a bit unusual for TSMC. And going into next year, it looks like there's some manifestation of further price increases. But at the same time, we're also seeing potentially inventory correction. So just trying to understand the pricing strategy itself, is this more of a reflection of perhaps the structural profitability for this cycle being different than the past? Or are there any kind of cost that we're seeing this time that we haven't seen in past cycles.

我只是想問一個關於整體獲利能力和定價的問題。似乎今年我們開始看到代工價格上漲，這對台積電來說有點不尋常。進入明年，看起來價格還會進一步上漲。但同時，我們也看到潛在的庫存調整。因此，只是試圖了解定價策略本身，這是否更反映了本週期的結構性獲利能力與過去不同？或者我們這次看到的成本是否是在過去幾個週期中未曾見過的。

Okay. So Frank's first question is on pricing. He wants to know what is driving our pricing strategy. How do the cost inflation or factors play into it? And really what drives TSMC's pricing?

好的。所以弗蘭克的第一個問題是關於定價。他想知道是什麼推動了我們的定價策略。成本上漲或其他因素如何影響它？那麼，真正影響台積電定價的因素是什麼呢？

Yes. We do not comment on our pricing details. These are the private discussion between us and our customers. Having said that, our pricing is strategic and value-driven, not opportunistic or cost plus. We work closely with our customers to provide our value. And we will continue to ensure that our pricing reflects our value creations, including technology, ecosystem, and services and capacity support.

是的。我們不對定價細節發表評論。這些都是我們和客戶之間的私人討論。話雖如此，我們的定價是策略性和價值驅動的，而不是機會主義或成本加成的。我們與客戶密切合作以提供我們的價值。我們將繼續確保我們的定價反映我們的價值創造，包括技術、生態系統、服務和能力支援。

By taking all these actions, we believe we can achieve a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher. We do face manufacturing cost challenges. As we mentioned, rising raw materials, utilities and tool costs, et cetera. But having said that, we still think that the 53% long-term gross margin is achievable, and 53% and higher.

透過採取所有這些措施，我們相信我們可以實現53％甚至更高的長期毛利率。我們確實面臨製造成本的挑戰。正如我們所提到的，原材料、公用事業和工具成本等等都在上漲。但話雖如此，我們仍然認為53%的長期毛利率是可以實現的，而且53%或更高。

Okay. Frank, do you have a second question?

好的。法蘭克，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, sorry. My second question is, I understand I guess the overall view on that. But given what you guys just talked about the overall cycle, I know you still have some -- the leadership in the event side and everything else. But is there a potential bill effect where, your customers could see a stronger second half this year in anticipation of price increases? And with the adjustment going into next year, that we see some more weakness in the first half more than anticipated in the first half?

是的，抱歉。我的第二個問題是，我理解我對此的整體看法。但考慮到你們剛才談到的整體週期，我知道你們仍然有一些——活動方面和其他方面的領導力。但是，是否存在潛在的帳單效應，即您的客戶是否會因為預期價格上漲而看到今年下半年更強勁的銷售表現？而隨著明年的調整，我們是否會看到上半年的疲軟程度超乎預期？

Okay. Well, Frank's second question is with pricing, will -- could there be a situation where customers, I guess, will pull in more of their business to second half of this year, and thus, we would see a weaker first half next year.

好的。嗯，弗蘭克的第二個問題是關於定價的，我猜會不會出現這樣的情況：客戶會將更多的業務轉移到今年下半年，因此，明年上半年的業務會比較疲軟。

No, we did not see that. We are actually -- we are working with our customers and we try our best to support our customers. As I said, even right now, our capacity remain very tight. So the switching between the next year's first quarter and this year's second half, no. We did not see that to simply put it.

不，我們沒有看到。我們實際上正在與客戶合作，並盡力為客戶提供支援。正如我所說，即使是現在，我們的產能仍然非常緊張。所以明年第一季和今年下半年的切換，沒有。簡單地說，我們沒有看到這一點。

The last one to ask questions, Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.

最後一個提問的是德意志銀行的羅伯特·桑德斯。

Yes. I just have 2. The first one is just, if you could just discuss how much of next year's revenue is under LTA. The reason I'm asking is because there are some people in the market thinking that customers may be fearful of pushing out wafers because they may be jeopardizing agreements for next year. And then the second question would be just to on the chiplet question. I was just wondering what percentage of 2-nanometer HPC designs will be using a chiplet architecture. Is it the majority? What's the adoption rate?

是的。我只有 2 個問題。我之所以問這個問題，是因為市場上有些人認為，客戶可能會害怕推出晶圓，因為這可能會危及明年的協議。第二個問題是關於 chiplet 的問題。我只是想知道有多少比例的 2 奈米 HPC 設計將使用小晶片架構。這是大多數嗎？採用率是多少？

Okay. So Robert's first question is, he wants to know how much percentage of revenue do long-term agreements with customers represent for TSMC. Maybe Wendell can address this question.

好的。所以羅伯特的第一個問題是，他想知道與客戶簽訂的長期合作佔台積電收入的多少百分比。也許溫德爾可以回答這個問題。

Yes. Robert, we don't discuss the details like that. We work very diligently and closely with the customers to plan the capacity, including receiving the prepayments for capacity support. And we will continue to work with them to decide to determine the best way to support them going forward.

是的。羅伯特，我們不討論這樣的細節。我們與客戶非常勤勉且密切地合作規劃產能，包括收到產能支援的預付款。我們將繼續與他們合作，找到未來支持他們的最佳方式。

Okay. And then his second question is on N2. He wants to know, for HPC applications on N2, what is the percentage or that may adopt a chiplet architecture approach?

好的。他的第二個問題是關於N2的。他想知道，對於N2上的HPC應用，有多少比例或可能採用chiplet架構的方法？

I cannot release the number. But let me assure you that the number of the customers using the chiplet in the N2 or the 2-nanometer technology will start to increase and that will become a major approach in the 2-nanometer and the following technologies.

我不能公佈該號碼。但我向你們保證，使用 N2 或 2 奈米技術中的小晶片的客戶數量將開始增加，這將成為 2 奈米及後續技術的主要方法。

Okay? Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Robert. And thank you, everyone. This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within one hour from now. And the transcript will become available 24 hours from now. Both of which you can find available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

好的？謝謝你，C.C.謝謝你，羅伯特。謝謝大家。我們的問答環節到此結束。在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，會議的重播將在一小時內提供。成績單將於24小時後公佈。您可以透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 找到上述產品。

So thank you for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe. And we hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都能保持健康和安全。我們希望您下個季度能再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。