台積電 ADR (TSM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

（外語）大家下午好，歡迎來到台積電2022年第二季度財報電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監、今天的主持人 Jeff Su。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. (Operator Instructions)

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將通過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 通過現場音頻網絡直播主持我們的收益電話會議，您還可以在該網站下載收益發布材料。 （操作員說明）

The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2022, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2022. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

今天的活動形式如下。首先，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德先生將總結我們在 2022 年第二季度的運營情況，然後是我們對 2022 年第三季度的指導。之後，黃先生和台積電首席執行官 C.C. 博士。魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。隨後台積電董事長劉曉波博士將主持問答環節，三位高管都將回答您的問題。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在我想把電話轉給台積電的首席財務官黃文德先生，以獲取運營摘要和當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter 2022. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter.

謝謝你，傑夫。大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從 2022 年第二季度的財務亮點開始。之後，我將提供第三季度的指導。

Second quarter revenue increased 8.8% sequentially in NT or 3.4% in U.S. dollars, as our second quarter business was supported by strong HPC, IoT and automotive-related demand. Second quarter gross margin increased 3.5 percentage points sequentially to 59.1%, slightly ahead of our guidance, as we enjoyed a more favorable foreign exchange rate, cost improvement and value selling. Likewise, operating margin increased 3.5 percentage points sequentially to 49.1%, in line with our gross margin increase. Overall, our second quarter EPS was TWD 9.14 and ROE was 39.4%.

第二季度收入按新台幣計算環比增長 8.8%，按美元計算增長 3.4%，因為我們第二季度的業務受到強勁的 HPC、物聯網和汽車相關需求的支持。第二季度毛利率環比增長 3.5 個百分點至 59.1%，略高於我們的預期，因為我們享有更有利的匯率、成本改善和價值銷售。同樣，營業利潤率環比增長 3.5 個百分點至 49.1%，與我們的毛利率增長一致。總體而言，我們第二季度的每股收益為 9.14 新台幣，ROE 為 39.4%。

Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 21% of wafer revenue in the second quarter while 7-nanometer accounted for 30%. Advanced technologies, which are defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 51% of wafer revenue.

現在讓我們轉向技術收入。 5 納米製程技術在第二季度貢獻了 21% 的晶圓收入，而 7 納米則佔 30%。定義為 7 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 51%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. All 6 platforms increased in the second quarter. Smartphone increased 3% quarter-over-quarter to account for 38% of our second quarter revenue. HPC increased 13% to account for 43%. IoT increased 14% to account for 8%. Automotive increased 14% to account for 5%. And digital consumer electronics increased 5% to account for 3%.

繼續按平台貢獻收入。第二季度所有6個平台都有所增長。智能手機環比增長 3%，占我們第二季度收入的 38%。 HPC 增長 13%，佔 43%。物聯網增長了 14%，佔 8%。汽車增長14%，佔5%。而數字消費電子產品增長5%至3%。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.4 trillion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 22 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD 47 billion in accounts payable, partially offset by the decrease of TWD 29 billion in short-term loans. Long-term interest-bearing debts increased by TWD 124 billion, mainly as we raised TWD 109 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter. On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 1 day to 37 days while days of inventory increased 7 days to 95 days as we prebuild N5 wafers and increased raw materials inventory.

轉到資產負債表。我們在第二季度結束時擁有 1.4 萬億新台幣的現金和有價證券。負債方面，流動負債增加220億新台幣，主要是應付賬款增加470億新台幣，部分被短期貸款減少290億新台幣所抵消。長期有息債務增加 1240 億新台幣，主要是因為我們在本季度籌集了 1090 億新台幣的公司債券。在財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數減少 1 天至 37 天，而庫存天數增加 7 天至 95 天，因為我們預建 N5 晶圓並增加原材料庫存。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 339 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 218 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 71 billion for third quarter '21 cash dividend. Bonds payable increased by TWD 109 billion as a result of this quarter's bond issuances. Overall, our cash balance increased by TWD 102 billion to TWD 1.3 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures totaled $7.34 billion.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。在第二季度，我們從運營中產生了約 3,390 億新台幣的現金，在資本支出中花費了 2,180 億新台幣，並為 21 年第三季度的現金股息分配了 710 億新台幣。由於本季度的債券發行，應付債券增加了 1,090 億新台幣。總體而言，本季度末我們的現金餘額增加了 1020 億新台幣至 1.3 萬億新台幣。以美元計算，我們第二季度的資本支出總額為 73.4 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between USD 19.8 billion and USD 20.6 billion, which represents a 11.2% sequential increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.7, gross margin is expected to be between 57.5% and 59.5%, operating margin between 47% and 49%.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。現在讓我們轉向我們當前的季度指導。根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第三季度收入將在 198 億美元至 206 億美元之間，中點環比增長 11.2%。基於1美元兌29.7新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在57.5%至59.5%之間，營業利潤率在47%至49%之間。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our second quarter and third quarter profitability.

現在讓我談談我們的關鍵信息。我將首先對我們第二季度和第三季度的盈利能力發表一些評論。

As a reminder, 6 factors determine TSMC's profitability: leadership technology development and ramp up, pricing, cost, capacity utilization, technology mix and foreign exchange rate.

提醒一下，6 個因素決定了台積電的盈利能力：領先的技術開發和提升、定價、成本、產能利用率、技術組合和匯率。

Compared to first quarter, our second quarter gross margin increased by 350 basis points sequentially to 59.1%, mainly due to a more favorable foreign exchange rate, cost improvement and value selling. Compared to our second quarter guidance, our actual gross margins exceeded the high end of the range provided 3 months ago as our guidance was based on exchange rate assumption of $1 to TWD 28.8 whereas the actual second quarter exchange rate was $1 to TWD 29.42. This created about 90 basis point difference in our actual second quarter gross margin versus our original guidance. We have just guided our third quarter gross margin to decline 60 basis points sequentially to 58.5% at the midpoint, as a slightly more favorable exchange rate assumption will be more than offset by higher inflationary costs, including higher raw material and electricity costs.

與第一季度相比，我們第二季度的毛利率環比增長 350 個基點至 59.1%，主要是由於更有利的匯率、成本改善和價值銷售。與我們的第二季度指引相比，我們的實際毛利率超過了 3 個月前提供的範圍的高端，因為我們的指引是基於 1 美元兌 28.8 新台幣的匯率假設，而實際第二季度匯率是 1 美元兌 29.42 新台幣。這使我們第二季度的實際毛利率與我們最初的指導相差約 90 個基點。我們剛剛指導我們的第三季度毛利率環比下降 60 個基點至中點的 58.5%，因為稍微有利的匯率假設將被更高的通脹成本（包括更高的原材料和電力成本）所抵消。

Looking ahead on our profitability, we will face challenges from rising inflationary costs from raw materials, utilities and tools, increasing process complexity of leading nodes, new investments in mature nodes and overseas fab expansions. Despite the manufacturing cost challenges, and excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, of which we have no control over, taking the other 5 factors into consideration, we continue to believe a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable.

展望我們的盈利能力，我們將面臨來自原材料、公用事業和工具的通脹成本上升、領先節點的工藝複雜性增加、對成熟節點的新投資以及海外工廠擴張的挑戰。儘管面臨製造成本挑戰，並且排除我們無法控制的匯率影響，考慮到其他 5 個因素，我們仍然認為可以實現 53% 或更高的長期毛利率。

Next, let me talk about our effective tax rate. For 2022, we expect our tax rate to be between 10% and 11%. Starting in 2023, we will see the expiration of certain tax exemptions in Taiwan, and our effective tax rate will increase. However, Taiwan government is in the process of drafting certain new tax exemption regulations and is currently in the common period. Therefore, we will provide a further update on the outlook of our tax rate in 2023 and beyond when more details become available.

接下來，讓我談談我們的有效稅率。對於 2022 年，我們預計我們的稅率將在 10% 到 11% 之間。從2023年開始，我們將看到台灣部分免稅期到期，我們的有效稅率將會增加。但是，台灣政府正在起草某些新的免稅規定，目前處於共同時期。因此，當更多細節可用時，我們將提供有關 2023 年及以後稅率前景的進一步更新。

Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

Thank you, Wendell. We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time.

謝謝你，溫德爾。我們希望每個人都在這段時間內保持安全和健康。

First, let me start with our near-term growth outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of TWD 534 billion or USD 18.2 billion, supported by HPC, IoT and automotive-related demand. Moving into third quarter 2022, we expect our business to be supported by continued demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies.

首先，讓我從我們的近期增長前景開始。在高性能計算、物聯網和汽車相關需求的支持下，我們第二季度的收入為 5340 億新台幣或 182 億美元。進入 2022 年第三季度，我們預計我們的業務將受到對我們行業領先的 5 納米和 7 納米技術的持續需求的支持。

On the inventory side, due to the softening device momentum in smartphone, PC and consumer end market segments, we observe the supply chain is already taking action and expect inventory level to reduce throughout the second half 2022. After 2 years of pandemic-driven stay-at-home demand, this type of adjustment is reasonable, in our view. Our expectation is for the excess inventory in the semiconductor supply chain to take a few quarters to rebalance to a healthier level. We believe the current semiconductor cycle will be more similar to a typical cycle, with a few quarters of inventory adjustment likely through first half 2023. We have also internally modeled and prepared ourselves for various different scenarios in case it is necessary.

在庫存方面，由於智能手機、個人電腦和消費終端市場的設備勢頭疲軟，我們觀察到供應鏈已經開始行動，預計庫存水平將在整個 2022 年下半年下降。經過 2 年的大流行驅動停留- 在國內需求方面，我們認為這種調整是合理的。我們預計半導體供應鏈中的過剩庫存需要幾個季度才能重新平衡到更健康的水平。我們認為當前的半導體週期將更類似於典型的周期，到 2023 年上半年可能會有幾個季度的庫存調整。我們還在內部建模並為各種不同的情況做好準備，以防有必要。

On the demand side, while we observe softness in consumer end market segment, other end market segments such as data center and automotive-related remains steady. And we are able to reallocate our capacity to support these areas. Despite the ongoing inventory correction, our customers' demand continue to exceed our ability to supply. We expect our capacity to remain tight throughout 2022 and our full year growth to be mid-30% in U.S. dollar terms.

在需求方面，雖然我們觀察到消費端細分市場疲軟，但數據中心和汽車相關等其他終端細分市場保持穩定。我們能夠重新分配我們的能力來支持這些領域。儘管庫存持續調整，但我們客戶的需求繼續超過我們的供應能力。我們預計整個 2022 年我們的產能將保持緊張，以美元計算，我們的全年增長率將達到 30% 左右。

Three key factor in supporting TSMC's strong structural demand are our technology leadership and differentiation, our strong portfolio in high-performance computing and our strategic relationship with customers. All of these factors are TSMC's strength in the foundry industry.

支持台積電強勁的結構性需求的三個關鍵因素是我們的技術領先地位和差異化、我們在高性能計算方面的強大產品組合以及我們與客戶的戰略關係。這些都是台積電在代工行業的強項。

First, on technology leadership and differentiation. TSMC's technology position is much stronger today as compared to previous years. Looking ahead to 2023, we are working diligently to provide the industry most advanced technologies and making it available to all the product innovators with the successful ramp of N5, N4P, N4X. And the upcoming ramp-up of N3, we will expand our customer product portfolio and increase our addressable market. The macroeconomic uncertainty may persist into 2023, our technology leadership will continue to advance and support our growth.

首先，關於技術領先和差異化。與往年相比，台積電今天的技術地位要強得多。展望 2023 年，我們正在努力提供行業最先進的技術，並通過 N5、N4P、N4X 的成功升級，將其提供給所有產品創新者。以及即將推出的 N3，我們將擴大我們的客戶產品組合併增加我們的潛在市場。宏觀經濟的不確定性可能會持續到 2023 年，我們的技術領先地位將繼續推進並支持我們的增長。

Secondly, the massive structural increase in the demand of computation, underpinned by the industry megatrend, continues to fill greater need for performance and energy-efficient computing, which require use of leading-edge technologies. Through our comprehensive IP ecosystem and optimized process technology, we are able to address and capture the structural demand and build a strong portfolio in high-performance computing. We expect HPC to be the main engine of TSMC's long-term growth and the largest contributor in terms of our incremental revenue growth in the next several years.

其次，在行業大趨勢的支撐下，計算需求的大規模結構性增長繼續滿足對性能和節能計算的更大需求，這需要使用領先的技術。通過我們全面的 IP 生態系統和優化的工藝技術，我們能夠解決和捕捉結構性需求，並在高性能計算方面建立強大的產品組合。我們預計 HPC 將成為台積電長期增長的主要引擎，也是未來幾年我們增量收入增長的最大貢獻者。

Third, our strategic relationship with our customer are long term in nature, developed and built through many years of collaboration and investment to enable customers' success in the high-end market. We continue to work closely with our customer and technology development, capacity planning and pricing to support their long-term demand and growth.

第三，我們與客戶的戰略關係是長期的，通過多年的合作和投資發展和建立，使客戶能夠在高端市場取得成功。我們將繼續與我們的客戶和技術開發、容量規劃和定價密切合作，以支持他們的長期需求和增長。

With all these 3 differentiating factors, we expect our capacity utilization to remain healthy in 2023. And our business to be less volatile and more resilient, supported by the strong demand for our differentiated and leading advanced and specialty technologies.

憑藉所有這三個差異化因素，我們預計我們的產能利用率將在 2023 年保持健康。在對我們差異化和領先的先進和專業技術的強勁需求的支持下，我們的業務將波動較小且更具彈性。

Now let me talk about TSMC's long-term growth outlook. While macroeconomic headwinds bring near-term uncertainties that may persist, we believe the fundamental structural growth trajectory in the long-term semiconductor demand remains firmly in place. We continue to observe silicon content increase across many end devices, fueled by process technology migration and increased functionality. For example, the number of CPUs, GPUs and AI accelerators in the data center are increasing. 5G smartphone carries substantially higher silicon content as compared to 4G smartphone. The amount of silicon content in today's car continue to rise. While the device unit growth of many electronics device may be flattish to low single-digit percentage range, in the next several years, the silicon content growth will be higher, in the mid- to high single-digit percentage range and support the long-term structural semiconductor demand and increase our addressable wafer demand.

現在讓我談談台積電的長期增長前景。儘管宏觀經濟逆風帶來可能持續存在的近期不確定性，但我們認為長期半導體需求的基本結構性增長軌跡仍然穩固。在工藝技術遷移和功能增加的推動下，我們繼續觀察到許多終端設備的矽含量增加。例如，數據中心的 CPU、GPU 和 AI 加速器的數量正在增加。與 4G 智能手機相比，5G 智能手機的矽含量要高得多。當今汽車中的矽含量繼續上升。雖然許多電子器件的器件單位增長可能持平至低個位數百分比範圍，但未來幾年，矽含量增長將更高，在中高個位數百分比範圍內，支持長期-長期結構半導體需求並增加我們的可尋址晶圓需求。

TSMC's CapEx and capacity planning are always based on the long-term structural market demand profile, not near-term factors. We are working closely with our customer to plan our long-term capacity and investing in leading edge and specialty technology to support their growth. We will manage our business prudently through the near-term uncertainties, and we remain highly confident in our long-term growth outlook. With our technology leadership, manufacturing and capacity support and customer's trust, TSMC is well positioned to capture the strong multiyear growth from the favorable structural megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications and deliver profitable growth for our shareholders. We reiterate our long-term revenues to be between 15 and 20 CAGR over the next several years in U.S. dollar terms.

台積電的資本支出和產能規劃始終基於長期結構性市場需求概況，而非近期因素。我們正與客戶密切合作，規劃我們的長期產能，並投資於領先和專業技術，以支持他們的發展。我們將在近期的不確定性中審慎管理我們的業務，我們對我們的長期增長前景仍然充滿信心。憑藉我們的技術領先地位、製造和產能支持以及客戶的信任，台積電有能力從 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的有利結構性大趨勢中獲得強勁的多年增長，並為我們的股東帶來盈利增長。我們重申，以美元計算，未來幾年我們的長期收入將在 15 至 20 年的複合年增長率之間。

Next, let me talk about the tool delivery update. As a major player in the global semiconductor supply chain, TSMC works closely with all our tool supplier to plan our CapEx and capacity in advance. However, like many other industries, our suppliers have been facing greater challenges in their supply chains, which are extending toward delivery lead times for both advanced and mature nodes. As a result, we expect some of our CapEx this year to be pushed out into 2023.

接下來說一下工具交付更新。作為全球半導體供應鏈的主要參與者，台積電與我們所有的工具供應商密切合作，提前規劃我們的資本支出和產能。然而，與許多其他行業一樣，我們的供應商在其供應鏈中面臨著更大的挑戰，這些挑戰正在向先進節點和成熟節點的交付提前期延長。因此，我們預計今年的部分資本支出將推遲到 2023 年。

TSMC is actively doing its part to help our tool suppliers address the supply chain challenges. In April, we said that we have increased regular high-level communications to trace the progress and send several teams on site to support our suppliers. Since then, we have worked closely to identify critical chips that are gauging toward delivery. We are working dynamically with our customers and prioritize our wafer capacity to support these critical chips to help mitigate the chip constraint issues.

台積電正在積極地幫助我們的工具供應商應對供應鏈挑戰。 4月份，我們表示我們增加了定期的高層溝通以跟踪進展，並派出多個團隊到現場支持我們的供應商。從那時起，我們一直在密切合作，以確定即將交付的關鍵芯片。我們正在與客戶動態合作，並優先考慮我們的晶圓產能以支持這些關鍵芯片，以幫助緩解芯片限制問題。

While challenges remain, the situation is improving. We do not expect any impact to our 2022 capacity plan. And we are able to put in the delivery schedule for certain amount of tools for our 2023 capacity. We have been working closely with our customer for 2023 so that we can support their demand.

儘管挑戰依然存在，但情況正在改善。我們預計 2022 年產能計劃不會受到任何影響。我們能夠為我們 2023 年的產能製定一定數量的工具的交付時間表。 2023 年，我們一直與客戶密切合作，以便我們能夠支持他們的需求。

Now let me talk about the N3 and N3 status. Our N3 is on track for volume production in second half of this year with good year. We expect revenue contribution starting first half of 2023, with a smooth ramp in 2023, driven by both HPC and smartphone applications. N3 will further extend our N3 family with the enhanced performance, power and yield. N3 will offer complete platform support for both smartphone and HPC applications. We observed a high level of customer engagement at N3. And volume production is scheduled for around 1 year after N3. Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced. Thus, we are confident that our N3 family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

現在讓我談談N3和N3的狀態。我們的 N3 有望在今年下半年實現量產，並取得不錯的成績。我們預計從 2023 年上半年開始，在 HPC 和智能手機應用程序的推動下，收入貢獻將在 2023 年平穩增長。 N3 將通過增強的性能、功率和產量進一步擴展我們的 N3 系列。 N3 將為智能手機和 HPC 應用程序提供完整的平台支持。我們觀察到 N3 的客戶參與度很高。量產計劃在 N3 之後 1 年左右。我們的 3 納米技術一經推出，將成為 PPA 和晶體管技術中最先進的半導體技術。因此，我們有信心我們的 N3 系列將成為台積電的另一個大型且持久的節點。

Finally, let me talk about the N2 status. Our N2 technology development is on track and progressing well to our expectation, with risk production schedule in 2024 and volume production in 2025. After careful evaluation and extensive period of development, our 2-nanometer technology will adopt [N3E] transistor structure to provide our customers with best performance, cost and technology maturity. N2 deliver full node performance and power benefited to address the increasing need for energy-efficient computing, with 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 20% to 30% power improvement at the same speed and larger density of more than 20% increase as compared with N3E. Our 2-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in both density and energy-efficient when it is introduced and will further extend our leadership position well into the future.

最後說一下N2的狀態。我們的 N2 技術開發進展順利，進展順利，符合我們的預期，2024 年風險量產，2025 年量產。經過仔細評估和廣泛的開發，我們的 2 納米技術將採用 [N3E] 晶體管結構提供我們的具有最佳性能、成本和技術成熟度的客戶。 N2 提供全節點性能和功率，有利於滿足對節能計算日益增長的需求，在相同功率下速度提高 10 到 15 倍，或在相同速度下功率提高 20% 到 30%，密度增加超過 20%與 N3E 相比。我們推出的 2 納米技術在密度和能效方面將成為業內最先進的半導體技術，並將進一步擴大我們在未來的領先地位。

This concludes our key message, and thank you for your attention.

我們的關鍵信息到此結束，感謝您的關注。

Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared remarks. (Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session. Our Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will be the host.

謝謝你，C.C.我們準備好的評論到此結束。 （操作員說明）如果您想用中文提出您的問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。 （操作員說明）現在讓我們開始問答環節。我們的主席 Mark Liu 博士將擔任主持人。

Hello, everyone. Thank you for coming to this conference. I wish you all healthy and well. I think the -- we hope the above reports already answered some of your question. But it definitely shows -- we -- this company stands on firm ground. And we will be prepared prudently going through this near-term uncertainty. In the meantime, we will be also confident and well prepared for our next growth period.

大家好。感謝您參加本次會議。祝大家身體健康，萬事如意。我認為——我們希望上述報告已經回答了你的一些問題。但它肯定表明——我們——這家公司站穩腳跟。我們將謹慎地準備好應對這種近期的不確定性。同時，我們也將充滿信心，為下一個增長期做好充分準備。

So now the floor is open for your question.

所以現在大家可以提問了。

Thank you, Chairman. Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

謝謝主席。接線員，請繼續與線路上的第一個呼叫者聯繫。

The first one to ask question, Randy Abrams, Credit Suisse.

第一個提出問題的人是瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Congratulations on the good outlook. My first question, I wanted to ask on your view on the business cycle. You raised your outlook to 35% in the strong third quarter. Could -- with that strong outlook, wanted to see what is driving your expectation for inventory drawdown in second half? And how broad you're seeing the inventory drawdown? And the follow-up question I wanted to ask to that is, what is your view on the first half? With your view customers will be drawing down through the first half, do you see underutilization? And how severe do you expect that correction?

恭喜你的好前景。我的第一個問題，我想問你對商業周期的看法。在強勁的第三季度，您將前景提高到 35%。能否 - 憑藉如此強勁的前景，想看看是什麼推動了您對下半年庫存下降的預期？您看到庫存下降的範圍有多大？我想問的後續問題是，你對上半年的看法是什麼？在您看來，客戶將在上半年減少，您是否看到利用率不足？你預計這種修正有多嚴重？

Okay. Randy, please allow me to summarize your first question. So I think, Randy the first part -- his first question is in looking at TSMC's third quarter guidance and also looking at our full year growth to be mid-30s. He's wondering, I believe, Randy, how to reconcile this with our expectation of the inventory adjustment in the second half and also into the first half next year. So how do we reconcile our view on the inventory cycle against our own business? Is that correct, Randy?

好的。 Randy，請允許我總結一下你的第一個問題。所以我認為，蘭迪第一部分 - 他的第一個問題是查看台積電第三季度的指導，以及我們的全年增長到 30 年代中期。我相信蘭迪，他想知道如何使這與我們對下半年以及明年上半年的庫存調整的預期相協調。那麼，我們如何使我們對庫存週期的看法與我們自己的業務相協調呢？對嗎，蘭迪？

Yes. That's correct. Just an initial view on first half. How much correction you're aiming for in your business?

是的。這是正確的。只是對上半場的初步看法。您的業務目標是多少修正？

Randy, this is C.C. Wei. Let me answer your question. Yes, we do have mid-30s growth in this year. But we also expect our customers start to take action to decrease their inventory level. How far? We expect that a few quarters, at least into the first half of 2023, they will continue to do the inventory correction. And these are awarded to TSMC's evaluation, let me say that. Despite ongoing inventory adjustment and macro uncertainties, the structural growth trajectory in the long-term semiconductor demand remained firm. With our leading and differentiated advance and specialty technologies and a strong HPC portfolio and strategic customer relationships, we expect our capacity remain tight and our business to be more resilient. And we are confident in both our near-term and long-term growth outlook. Did that answer your question?

蘭迪，我是 C.C.魏。讓我回答你的問題。是的，我們今年確實有 30 多歲的增長。但我們也希望我們的客戶開始採取行動降低庫存水平。多遠？我們預計，至少到 2023 年上半年，他們將繼續進行庫存調整。而這些都是授予台積電的評價，讓我這麼說。儘管庫存調整和宏觀不確定性仍在持續，但長期半導體需求的結構性增長軌跡依然堅挺。憑藉我們領先和差異化的先進和專業技術以及強大的 HPC 產品組合和戰略客戶關係，我們預計我們的產能將保持緊張，我們的業務將更具彈性。我們對我們的近期和長期增長前景充滿信心。這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes. I mean, to clarify, do you expect even through first half to remain tight, factoring in your tech position and some of the projects you have?

是的。我的意思是，澄清一下，考慮到你的技術地位和你擁有的一些項目，你是否期望即使在上半年保持緊張？

Yes. We remain.

是的。我們留下來。

So I think Randy wants to ask, in the first half of next year, do we expect -- how do we see our capacity utilization given the ongoing inventory adjustment?

所以我想蘭迪想問一下，在明年上半年，我們是否期望 - 鑑於正在進行的庫存調整，我們如何看待我們的產能利用率？

I cannot give you exactly the number that we are talking about, but let me say, it's hearsay. Okay.

我不能準確地告訴你我們正在談論的數字，但讓我說，這是道聽途說。好的。

Okay. Great. My second question, on the CapEx, 2 parts. Just want to understand the push-outs, a little more what it's affecting the 3-nanometer. How much ramp the 5-nanometer or mature nodes? And if you could also discuss the framework for next year's CapEx. I think you've made comments about we could be above TWD 40 billion. If you could give a framework for how you're thinking about next year CapEx.

好的。偉大的。我的第二個問題，關於資本支出，分兩部分。只是想了解推出，多一點它對 3 納米的影響。 5 納米或成熟節點的坡度有多大？如果您還可以討論明年資本支出的框架。我想你已經說過我們可能超過 400 億新台幣。如果你能給出一個框架來說明你對明年資本支出的看法。

Okay. So Randy's second question is on the CapEx. He wants to know, with some of the tool delivery issues, the CapEx pushout, is this more for 3-nanometer? Is this for 5-nanometer? Or is this more on the mature node side? And he also wants to know how does this impact our CapEx for 2023. As we said before, that 2023 could be TWD 40 billion or higher.

好的。所以蘭迪的第二個問題是關於資本支出的。他想知道，由於一些工具交付問題，資本支出推出，這是否更適用於 3 納米？這是5納米嗎？或者這更多的是在成熟節點方面？他還想知道這對我們 2023 年的資本支出有何影響。正如我們之前所說，2023 年可能達到 400 億新台幣或更高。

Okay. Randy, this is Wendell. The first question, as C.C. said in his prepared remarks, that the schedule, the tool delivery schedule changes currently as -- in both the advanced and the mature nodes. Okay. And your second question is about next year's CapEx. It's too early to talk about next year's CapEx. But as we always said, we invest the CapEx in the year for the future opportunities. So as long as the -- the outlook, the future outlook is good, we will continue to invest, but of course, in a disciplined manner.

好的。蘭迪，這是溫德爾。第一個問題，如 C.C.在他準備好的評論中說，時間表，工具交付時間表目前在高級和成熟節點中都發生了變化。好的。你的第二個問題是關於明年的資本支出。現在談論明年的資本支出還為時過早。但正如我們一直說的那樣，我們在這一年投資資本支出以獲得未來的機會。因此，只要--前景，未來前景良好，我們將繼續投資，但當然要以自律的方式進行。

Okay. And just for this year, with the pushout, what's your expectation for how much this year would be? And that's my final question.

好的。就今年而言，隨著推出，您對今年的預期是多少？這是我的最後一個問題。

I think next year will be too early. But I can tell you that this year, it will be closer to the lower end of our previous guidance.

我認為明年還為時過早。但我可以告訴你，今年，它將更接近我們之前指導的下限。

So closer to the lower end of the guidance of TWD 40 billion to TWD 44 billion, Randy.

蘭迪，如此接近 400 億新台幣至 440 億新台幣的指導下限。

Next one to ask questions is Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一位提問的是高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Congratulations for the great result. I think maybe have said that the next few years, the revenue growth will still at the 15% to 20% growth, and it is driven by -- of the compound -- dollar content growth. Can you -- this is actually the most difficult part for the investor or the biggest discrepancy when we talk to the investor, how much is driven by the dollar content growth? Because investors do not really see that. So for example, by 50% to 20% growth for the next few years, how much is driven by dollar content growth? How much is driven by shipment? Or how much is driven by the ASP or product mix improvement?

祝賀偉大的結果。我想也許有人說過，未來幾年，收入增長仍將保持在 15% 到 20% 的增長，並且是由複合增長驅動的。你能 - 這實際上是投資者最困難的部分，或者當我們與投資者交談時最大的差異，美元內容增長驅動了多少？因為投資者並沒有真正看到這一點。例如，未來幾年增長 50% 到 20%，有多少是由美元內容增長推動的？出貨量是多少？或者有多少是由 ASP 或產品組合改進推動的？

Okay. Let me -- Bruce, thank you. Let me summarize your first question. So Bruce is really looking at our long-term growth. We said that between -- we will grow between 15% to 20% CAGR in the next several years. He wants to know, out of this 15% to 20%, how much is driven by silicon content? How much is driven by, Bruce, I think you said shipment? How much is driven by ASP?

好的。讓我——布魯斯，謝謝。讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。所以布魯斯真的在看我們的長期增長。我們說過，未來幾年我們的複合年增長率將在 15% 到 20% 之間。他想知道，這15%到20%中，有多少是由矽含量驅動的？布魯斯，我想你說的是裝運是多少？ ASP驅動了多少？

Bruce, let me answer the question. But exactly the number, I cannot share with you because it's confidential. But let me say that. The content increase actually is at least mid- to high single digit for our end devices. And then even all the electronics devices, even the growth is flattish or some kind of a low single-digit. It's still growing. It's still growing. And combined with all these and our value selling with our customer, so we are confident to say 15% to 20% CAGR is achievable. Okay.

布魯斯，讓我來回答這個問題。但確切的數字，我不能和你分享，因為它是機密的。但是讓我這麼說。對於我們的終端設備，內容增長實際上至少是中高個位數。然後甚至所有電子設備，甚至增長都是平淡的或某種低個位數。它還在增長。它還在增長。結合所有這些以及我們與客戶的價值銷售，我們有信心說 15% 到 20% 的複合年增長率是可以實現的。好的。

Okay. So to my next question is for the mature node and the specialty capacity expansion. I think Chairman recently commented that you will expand your mature node that specialized capacity by 50%, 5-0, in the next 3 years. I mean, this number looks a bit big. I mean can you tell us how do you achieve this 50% capacity expansion by the new capacity or conversion? And where are those demand? How do you see the mature node supply and the demand in the coming few years?

好的。所以我的下一個問題是關於成熟節點和專業能力的擴展。我認為董事長最近評論說，您將在未來 3 年內以 5-0 的比例將專業化能力的成熟節點擴大 50%。我的意思是，這個數字看起來有點大。我的意思是你能告訴我們你是如何通過新產能或轉換來實現這 50% 的產能擴張的？這些需求在哪裡？您如何看待未來幾年成熟節點的供應和需求？

Okay. Bruce, let me summarize your second question, please. All right. So Bruce's second question is on mature node and specialty capacity expansion. He is looking to say TSMC expanding our mature node specialty capacity by 50%. That looks very big. Is that all new capacity expansion? Is some of this also coming from logic conversion to specialty? And then also, what applications are driving this?

好的。布魯斯，請讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。好的。所以布魯斯的第二個問題是關於成熟節點和專業能力的擴展。他希望台積電將我們的成熟節點專業產能擴大 50%。那看起來很大。這都是新的產能擴張嗎？其中一些是否也來自邏輯轉換到專業？然後，是什麼應用程序推動了這一點？

Well, let me answer the question. 50% increase, we mean that 50% is in specialty technologies capacity. It doesn't mean the overall capacity increase. Okay. We did this because of our customers' need, and we work closely to support the growth. So it's not a 50% increase in the logic capacity, no. It's specialties.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。增加 50%，我們的意思是 50% 是專業技術產能。這並不意味著整體容量增加。好的。我們這樣做是因為客戶的需求，我們密切合作以支持增長。所以這不是邏輯容量增加 50%，不。是特產。

And if I may add a little bit. The expansion also includes both the new capacity and conversion of existing capacity.

如果我可以補充一點。擴張還包括新產能和現有產能的轉換。

So how confident you are, I mean, in terms of this kind of capacity expansion, what kind of application which will give you confidence to -- for this kind of increase? So because in the past like 20 years, your capacity expansion is mostly in the advanced node?

那麼，我的意思是，就這種容量擴展而言，您有多大的信心，什麼樣的應用程序會讓您對這種增加充滿信心？那麼是因為在過去的20年裡，你們的擴容大多是在高級節點上？

So Bruce wants to know what is keeping TSMC confident to have such expansion on the specialty technologies as most of our expansion in the past has been focused on the advanced nodes.

所以布魯斯想知道是什麼讓台積電有信心在專業技術上進行這種擴展，因為我們過去的大部分擴展都集中在先進節點上。

Bruce, you are right. In the past years, TSMC always increased the leading-edge capacity. We did not increase any specialties in the past few years, except a few upgrade from logic to specialty. But this time, it's different. First, because we can see the silicon content continue to increase on all the edge devices. It's not -- it's included on the demand on the leading-edge capacity. It also require the specialties content inside. And so at the urge of our customers' request, TSMC closely work with our customer and to expand our specialty capacities. Okay. How confident? Very, very confident.

布魯斯，你是對的。在過去的幾年裡，台積電一直在增加領先的產能。這幾年我們沒有增加任何專業，除了一些從邏輯到專業的升級。但這一次，情況有所不同。首先，因為我們可以看到所有邊緣設備上的矽含量都在不斷增加。它不是——它包含在對前沿產能的需求中。它還需要裡面的專業內容。因此，在客戶要求的推動下，台積電與客戶密切合作，擴大我們的專業能力。好的。有多自信？非常非常有信心。

Next one to ask question, Sunny Lin from UBS.

下一位要提問的是瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

Congrats on the strong results. So my first question is on the semi cycle, earlier, that you have done some scenario analysis on the semi cycle for 2023. So I just wonder what your current base case for semi growth for 2023. Do you think it will be like a typical down cycle like in 2015, 2019? Or would it be a more meaningful correction?

恭喜取得了不錯的成績。所以我的第一個問題是關於半週期的，早些時候，你已經對 2023 年的半週期進行了一些情景分析。所以我想知道你目前對 2023 年半增長的基本情況是什麼。你認為這會像一個典型的像2015年、2019年那樣的下行週期？還是更有意義的修正？

Okay. Sunny's first question is on the semiconductor cycle. She wants to know what is TSMC's base case for 2023. Do we think it will be more of a typical cycle such as in 2015 or 2019? Or it will be more of a meaningful correction, I believe, are her words.

好的。 Sunny 的第一個問題是關於半導體週期的。她想知道台積電 2023 年的基本情況是什麼。我們認為這會更像是一個典型的周期，比如 2015 年或 2019 年嗎？或者這將是一個更有意義的修正，我相信，是她的話。

Yes. Sunny, yes, our base case is a typical -- more of a typical down cycle. The inventory correction maybe go for a few quarters, through the first half of 2023. It's not like a big down cycle back in 2008 or something like that.

是的。 Sunny，是的，我們的基本情況是一個典型的——更像是一個典型的下行週期。庫存調整可能會持續幾個季度，直到 2023 年上半年。這不像 2008 年或類似的大衰退週期。

Got it. And so my second question is on 3-nanometer. As we are ramping up the technology in second half, how should we think about the revenue contribution into 2023? In terms of profitability, will the 3-nanometer ramp-up have any impact into Q4 or if the impact will be mostly from Q1 next year?

知道了。所以我的第二個問題是關於 3 納米的。隨著我們在下半年提陞技術，我們應該如何考慮到 2023 年的收入貢獻？就盈利能力而言，3 納米的增長是否會對第四季度產生影響，或者影響主要來自明年第一季度？

Okay. So Sunny's second question is on 3-nanometer. With the ramp, she wants to know what type of revenue contribution from N3 in 2023. And also, with the ramp of N3, what would be the impact to profitability? When should we see it? And what type of impact from N3. Thank you. That's correct, right, Sunny?

好的。所以 Sunny 的第二個問題是關於 3 納米的。通過斜坡，她想知道 N3 在 2023 年對收入的貢獻是什麼類型。此外，隨著 N3 的斜坡，對盈利能力的影響是什麼？我們什麼時候應該看到它？以及來自 N3 的什麼類型的影響。謝謝你。沒錯，對吧，桑尼？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay, Sunny. In terms of revenue contribution from N3, I have to say that, nowadays, it's less meaningful to talk about the revenue contribution of a leading node at the very beginning when we start to ramp it compared to the -- in the past because the total pie is increasing and we believe it will continue to increase. Dollar amount-wise, it's certainly bigger than the previous nodes at the very beginning stage. This is your first question. In terms of profitability dilution, we expect that it will impact between 2 to 3 percentage point in gross margins in 20 -- in the first year, 2023. Thank you.

好的，桑尼。就 N3 的收入貢獻而言，我不得不說，現在，與過去相比，在開始提升領先節點時談論領先節點的收入貢獻意義不大，因為總餡餅正在增加，我們相信它會繼續增加。就金額而言，它肯定比最初階段的先前節點更大。這是你的第一個問題。就盈利能力稀釋而言，我們預計它將在 20 年（即 2023 年的第一年）影響毛利率 2 至 3 個百分點。謝謝。

Now let's turn for Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

現在讓我們談談摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Sorry. My first question is on the...

對不起。我的第一個問題是關於...

Gokul, sorry, you're breaking up. Can you try again? Repeat your question, please.

Gokul，對不起，你要分手了。你能再試一次嗎？請重複你的問題。

Yes. Sure. So my first question -- inventory cycle.

是的。當然。所以我的第一個問題——庫存週期。

Gokul, so sorry. Okay. Let's try one more time because you continue to break up. Let's try one more time. If not, I will have to ask you to dial back in. Sorry. Please repeat your question again.

高爾，對不起。好的。讓我們再試一次，因為你繼續分手。讓我們再試一次。如果沒有，我將不得不請您重新撥入。對不起。請再次重複您的問題。

Sure. Can you hear me now?

當然。你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. My first is investor's impact. Could you talk us a bit about what is your expectation...

好的。我的第一個是投資者的影響。你能和我們談談你的期望是什麼...

Okay. Gokul, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Your line is very unstable. So I will ask you to please try to get back into the queue, and we'll address your question. Okay.

好的。高爾，對不起。對不起。你的線路很不穩定。所以我會請你嘗試回到隊列中，我們會解決你的問題。好的。

Next one to ask question, Brett Simpson, Arete Research.

下一個要提問的人是 Brett Simpson，Arete Research。

I had a question on the inventory burden off that you were signaling potentially for first half '23. Can you talk more broadly about fabless days of inventory today and how you see this trending in the second half of the year? And then in terms of your outlook for the overall semi industry, what is your current view for 2022 growth and 2023 growth? And has your view changed in the last 3 months?

我有一個關於庫存負擔的問題，您可能會在 23 年上半年發出信號。您能否更廣泛地談談今天的無晶圓庫存天數以及您如何看待下半年的這種趨勢？然後就您對整個半導體行業的展望而言，您目前對 2022 年和 2023 年的增長有何看法？在過去的 3 個月裡，您的觀點是否發生了變化？

Okay. So Brett's first question is looking at inventory and the overall industry. So his first question is about the inventory adjustment. We have said that it will likely be through first half 2023. So what do we see for the fabless DOI trending in second half of this year?

好的。所以布雷特的第一個問題是看庫存和整個行業。所以他的第一個問題是關於庫存調整。我們已經說過可能會持續到 2023 年上半年。那麼我們對今年下半年的無晶圓 DOI 趨勢有何看法？

Yes. Yes, Brett. We expect the fabless DOI to come down in the second half of the year gradually. And your second question?

是的。是的，布雷特。我們預計無晶圓廠 DOI 將在下半年逐漸下降。你的第二個問題？

Come down throughout second half of this year. Correct.

整個下半年下來。正確的。

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

And then the second part of his question is -- Brett, sorry, again, your second part is looking at the industry, what is our current view on the semiconductor industry for 2022 and 2023? And how has our forecast changed or not?

然後他的問題的第二部分是 - Brett，對不起，再次，您的第二部分是關注行業，我們目前對 2022 年和 2023 年半導體行業的看法是什麼？我們的預測發生了怎樣的變化？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Well, let me answer the question. Our forecast for the semiconductor exclude memory and the forecast on the foundry growth in 2022 remain the same as we projected earlier. For 2023, it's too early to forecast. But as we said, the inventory correction will continue to go on. And for TSMC, because our technology position is much stronger today and we also have a very strong portfolio in HPC and we have a long-term strategic relationship with customer, so we see 2023, even just inventory correction, is still a growth year for TSMC.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。我們對半導體不包括內存的預測以及對 2022 年代工增長的預測與我們之前的預測保持一致。對於 2023 年，現在預測還為時過早。但正如我們所說，庫存調整將繼續進行。而對於台積電來說，因為我們今天的技術地位要強得多，而且我們在 HPC 方面也有非常強大的產品組合，而且我們與客戶有長期的戰略關係，所以我們認為 2023 年，即使只是庫存調整，仍然是增長的一年。台積電。

Okay. Jeff, can I just have a second question? Is that possible?

好的。傑夫，我可以問第二個問題嗎？那可能嗎？

Sure. One more second question. Yes.

當然。再來一秒的問題。是的。

So we've been hearing from some other leading-edge chip manufacturers that they are looking at the opportunity to work with project financing companies when it comes to new fab builds. I think companies at Brookfield has been mentioned. How does TSMC view this trend? And is there a fab rental model or a way to reduce the free cash flow burden in this industry as you bring on new fabs?

因此，我們從其他一些領先的芯片製造商那裡聽到，他們正在尋找與項目融資公司合作的機會，以建造新的晶圓廠。我認為已經提到了布魯克菲爾德的公司。台積電如何看待這一趨勢？當您引進新的晶圓廠時，是否有晶圓廠租賃模式或方法來減少該行業的自由現金流負擔？

All right. So Brett second question is, he wants to know what is TSMC's view. His observation is other companies in the industry are using project financing to build new fabs, this new fab rental model. So what is TSMC's view on this?

好的。所以布雷特的第二個問題是，他想知道台積電的看法。他的觀察是業內其他公司正在利用項目融資來建造新的晶圓廠，這種新的晶圓廠租賃模式。那麼台積電對此有何看法？

Brett, we are not considering project financing now. Normally, project financing entails stringent, stricter terms and higher costs. We will finance the expansion mainly from our operating cash flow and borrowing using our strong balance sheet. That's our current policy.

布雷特，我們現在不考慮項目融資。通常，項目融資需要更嚴格、更嚴格的條款和更高的成本。我們將主要通過我們的經營現金流和使用我們強大的資產負債表的借款來為擴張提供資金。這是我們目前的政策。

Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一位要提問的是來自摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

And also, congratulations for great results. So my first question is about your HPC and high end smartphone demand, because our view is that the macro slowdown or recession should impact the core CapEx and the high consumption. So management, do you think that the so-called inventory digestion will sooner or later apply to your data center semi customers and the high-end smartphone customers order in the coming quarters?

而且，祝賀你取得了很好的成績。所以我的第一個問題是關於你們的高性能計算和高端智能手機需求，因為我們認為宏觀經濟放緩或衰退應該會影響核心資本支出和高消費。那麼管理層，您認為所謂的庫存消化遲早會在未來幾個季度適用於您的數據中心半客戶和高端智能手機客戶的訂單嗎？

Okay. So Charlie's first question is looking at the inventory adjustment in light of the macro slowdown. He wants to know, do we believe or see impact to cloud service provider CapEx or high-end smartphone sort of to have inventory adjustment next? Is that correct, Charlie?

好的。所以查理的第一個問題是考慮宏觀經濟放緩的庫存調整。他想知道，我們是否相信或看到對雲服務提供商資本支出或高端智能手機類接下來進行庫存調整的影響？對嗎，查理？

Yes.

是的。

Charlie, this is C.C. Wei. I think to answer your question, you might think they have too much of inventory in the HPC area. But as we said, that in our life, there are so many edge devices continue to create data. And those data need to be processed. And with sufficient speed and efficient power consumption, and that require our leading-edge technology to provide the solution. So even there's a inventory correction or something like that, we expect our business to be less volatile and more resilient through the near-term uncertainties. And also, we are highly confident in our long-term growth outlook.

查理，我是 C.C.魏。我想回答您的問題，您可能認為他們在 HPC 領域的庫存過多。但正如我們所說，在我們的生活中，有如此多的邊緣設備繼續創建數據。這些數據需要處理。並且具有足夠的速度和高效的功耗，這需要我們的領先技術來提供解決方案。因此，即使存在庫存修正或類似情況，我們預計我們的業務在近期不確定性中的波動性和彈性會更小。此外，我們對我們的長期增長前景充滿信心。

Yes. Yes. So how about the high-end smartphone inventory correction? Do you expect that top brand inventory -- smartphone inventory to see correction as well on the semiconductor demand?

是的。是的。那麼高端智能手機庫存調整情況如何？您是否預計頂級品牌庫存——智能手機庫存也會在半導體需求方面出現調整？

So Charlie also wants to know, do we expect high-end smartphone inventory correction on the semi demand?

所以查理也想知道，我們預計高端智能手機庫存會在半需求上有所調整嗎？

To be frank with you, we did not see too much of inventory on the high-end smartphone buildup. So, no.

坦率地說，我們沒有看到高端智能手機的庫存過多。所以不行。

Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And my second question is about your future technology demand [fulfillment], right? So either Mark or C.C., can you please help me. So this is the first time you've disclosed the N2 [DAA] logic density improvement. I think more than 20% logic density increased still better than market traders. But compared to the previous node, there's a significant slowdown. So do you think -- first of all, N2 is a full node migration. And do you think that there is a kind of a significant slowdown of Moore's law? And what does that mean to your CapEx per K for N2 versus N3? And lastly, backside power via, right? So I'm very interested in your kind of N2, what it means to your long-term technology and also CapEx.

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於您未來的技術需求[實現]，對嗎？所以無論是馬克還是 C.C.，你能幫幫我嗎？所以這是您第一次披露 N2 [DAA] 邏輯密度改進。我認為超過 20% 的邏輯密度增加仍然好於市場交易者。但與之前的節點相比，速度明顯放緩。所以你認為——首先，N2 是一個全節點遷移。你認為摩爾定律有一種明顯的放緩嗎？這對 N2 與 N3 的每 K 資本支出意味著什麼？最後，通過背面電源，對嗎？所以我對你的 N2 非常感興趣，它對你的長期技術和資本支出意味著什麼。

Okay. Maybe I'll summarize Charlie's second question into few different parts. His first question is on N2 technology. And he notes that the logic density gain is more than 20%. But does this represent a significant slowdown, especially in the context of Moore's Law? And what does this mean for technology as a whole? Maybe Chairman can address.

好的。也許我會將查理的第二個問題總結為幾個不同的部分。他的第一個問題是關於 N2 技術的。他指出，邏輯密度增益超過 20%。但這是否代表顯著放緩，尤其是在摩爾定律的背景下？這對整個技術意味著什麼？也許主席可以發言。

Let me answer your question. First of all, C.C. just mentioned, our N2 will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry when it is introduced, because this technology, we work closely with our customers, and about -- regarding the scaling factor included. But Charlie, we -- from now on, we have to look at the technology in a platform fashion. The N2 technology is not just the wafer scaling. The N2 technology include transistor scaling, but also include the new power line structure and also include a new chiplet technology to allow the more architectural innovation in our customers.

讓我回答你的問題。首先，C.C.剛才提到，我們的 N2 在推出時將是業界最先進的半導體技術，因為這項技術，我們與客戶密切合作，並且關於 - 包括縮放因子。但是查理，我們——從現在開始，我們必須以平台的方式看待這項技術。 N2 技術不僅僅是晶圓縮放。 N2 技術包括晶體管縮放，還包括新的電源線結構，還包括新的小芯片技術，以允許我們的客戶進行更多的架構創新。

So this is a whole set of technology offering composed to be N2 nanometer. The scaling factor is smaller, but we really know the customers' needs is -- today is really about the power efficiency. And this will be a full node power efficiency migration. And to control the cost, that is the reason we control the scaling factor while maintain the same value for the new generation of technology. So that's my report, yes.

所以這是一整套由N2納米組成的技術產品。比例因子更小，但我們真的知道客戶的需求是——今天真的是關於電源效率。這將是一次全節點能效遷移。而為了控製成本，這就是我們在控制縮放因子的同時為新一代技術保持相同值的原因。這就是我的報告，是的。

Great. And also Charlie is asking about the backside power on N2.

偉大的。查理也在詢問 N2 的背面電源。

Okay. Let me add some viewpoint. On the backside power delivery, actually, we call the super power rail is part of our N2 platform offering. And at the proper time, who are introduced to the market whenever our customer need it.

好的。讓我補充一些觀點。實際上，在背面供電方面，我們稱超級電源軌是我們 N2 平台產品的一部分。並且在適當的時候，只要我們的客戶需要，他們就會被引入市場。

Yes. So if you put that together, right, it seems like lower -- you have this power via -- what does that mean to your CapEx burden in the coming years?

是的。所以如果你把它放在一起，對，它似乎更低——你有這種權力——這對你未來幾年的資本支出負擔意味著什麼？

Next one to ask questions, Laura Chen from Citigroup.

下一位提問的是花旗集團的 Laura Chen。

Congrats for the good result. My first question is about your view on the key applications. Actually, starting from the last quarter, we already see that high computing PC has been the key categories for TSMC. So I'm just wondering your view from on the -- from various architecture, like ARM-based or X86, can you share with our view that what will be the key driver for TSMC for the next few years? Do you see there will be more from the ARM-based CPU or more upside from X86 ARM?

恭喜取得好成績。我的第一個問題是關於您對關鍵應用的看法。其實從上個季度開始，我們已經看到高算力PC一直是台積電的重點品類。所以我只是想知道你對各種架構的看法，比如基於 ARM 或 X86 的，你能否與我們分享一下未來幾年台積電的關鍵驅動力是什麼？您認為基於 ARM 的 CPU 會帶來更多好處，還是 X86 ARM 帶來更多好處？

And also, on the smartphone space, I recall that in the previous analyst call, you mentioned that penetration rate for the 5G, do you expect there will be about like 50%. But given the weak demand growth, well, what's your latest view on the 5G smartphone penetration? That's my first question.

另外，在智能手機領域，我記得在之前的分析師電話會議中，您提到 5G 的滲透率，您預計會達到 50% 左右。但鑑於需求增長疲軟，那麼您對 5G 智能手機滲透率的最新看法是什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. So Laura's first question. First, she wants to know on HPC. She notes HPC has become the largest contributor by platform to our revenue. So she wants to know what -- when we look out over the next several years, how do we see HPC? Is this driven by ARM-based or -- versus x86. I think that's the first part of her first question.

好的。所以勞拉的第一個問題。首先，她想了解 HPC。她指出，HPC 已成為我們收入的最大平台貢獻者。所以她想知道——當我們展望未來幾年時，我們如何看待 HPC？這是由基於 ARM 的驅動還是 - 與 x86 相比。我認為這是她第一個問題的第一部分。

Laura, our HPC definitely is growing here. And since TSMC, everybody's foundry, so we support both X86 and ARM-based for what you say for the high-performance computing, both. And both are significantly growing in TSMC.

Laura，我們的 HPC 肯定在這裡發展壯大。由於台積電是大家的代工廠，所以我們支持 X86 和基於 ARM 的高性能計算。兩者都在台積電顯著增長。

And then she also wants to -- sorry?

然後她也想——對不起？

Yes. It seems like TSMC already has a very high exposure on the ARM base. So can we expect the next few years the growth driver to more come from the X86?

是的。台積電似乎已經在 ARM 基礎上擁有很高的曝光率。那麼，我們能否預計未來幾年的增長動力將更多地來自 X86？

Can I answer this question? We have very high exposure to X86 also.

我可以回答這個問題嗎？我們對 X86 的曝光率也很高。

Laura, I think we have said numerous times and it still remains -- holds true that HPC will be the largest contributor and increasingly the main driver of TSMC's growth over the next several years.

勞拉，我想我們已經說過很多次了，但它仍然存在——高性能計算將成為未來幾年台積電增長的最大貢獻者，並且越來越成為主要驅動力。

Yes. And Laura, your second question is the 5G smartphone penetration rate. We're still looking at about 50% at this moment.

是的。 Laura，你的第二個問題是 5G 智能手機的普及率。目前，我們仍在關注 50% 左右。

Okay. And if I can add the second question about the gross margin outlook. I think 59% is really amazing. And considering your CapEx discipline and the consistent delivery in advanced node or maybe price hike as well, can we expect that will have more upside to your current 53% gross margin target?

好的。如果我可以添加關於毛利率前景的第二個問題。我認為 59% 真的很了不起。考慮到您的資本支出紀律和高級節點的一致交付或價格上漲，我們是否可以預期這將對您當前的 53% 毛利率目標有更大的上升空間？

So Laura's second question is on the gross margin. She notes that gross margin for second quarter, 59.1%, is very high. So is there upside to our long-term gross margin target of 53% and higher?

所以勞拉的第二個問題是關於毛利率的。她指出，第二季度的毛利率為 59.1%，非常高。那麼我們 53% 或更高的長期毛利率目標是否有上升空間？

Laura, as we mentioned before, there are 6 factors that affect our profitability every year. Excluding the foreign exchange rate, of which we do not have any control on, the other factors taking into consideration, we are confident that a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable. And we certainly -- we'll try to work hard to deliver better than that.

勞拉，正如我們之前提到的，每年有 6 個因素影響我們的盈利能力。排除我們無法控制的匯率以及其他因素，我們有信心實現 53% 及更高的長期毛利率。我們當然 - 我們會努力工作以提供比這更好的。

Next one, we have Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

下一位是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Let me try again. My first question is on the U.S. expansion. There have been a lot of commentary around very high cost for U.S. expansion. I think Founder, Chairman -- the U.S. perhaps compared to Taiwan. Could you talk a little bit about the U.S. expansion and how they are going? What kind of cost differential is TSMC seeing? And what is your negotiations with the Arizona government as well as customers in terms of filling up the cost differential? That's my first.

讓我再嘗試一次。我的第一個問題是關於美國的擴張。關於美國擴張的成本非常高，有很多評論。我認為創始人、董事長——美國可能與台灣相比。你能談談美國的擴張及其進展情況嗎？台積電看到什麼樣的成本差異？在填補成本差異方面，您與亞利桑那州政府以及客戶的談判是什麼？那是我的第一個。

Okay. Gokul, I have to say again, you're breaking in and out. Let me try to summarize your question, make sure I -- we got it right. So Gokul's first question is about our U.S. fab. He notes that the cost is higher. Our founder has recently said this as well. So Gokul, I think your question, again, you broke up, I think your question is about how do we manage the -- how will we manage the cost gap and close the cost gap? Is that your question?

好的。 Gokul，我不得不再說一遍，你在闖入和闖出。讓我試著總結一下你的問題，確保我——我們做對了。所以 Gokul 的第一個問題是關於我們的美國工廠。他指出，成本更高。我們的創始人最近也這麼說。所以Gokul，我想你的問題，再次，你分手了，我認為你的問題是關於我們如何管理 - 我們將如何管理成本差距並縮小成本差距？那是你的問題嗎？

What is your discussions and negotiation with customers and governments regarding higher cost as well as subsidies?

您與客戶和政府就更高的成本和補貼進行了哪些討論和談判？

So okay. Thank you, Gokul. So Gokul wants to know, with the higher cost, how are negotiations and discussions with governments? How are negotiations and discussions with customers about this cost differential?

沒關係。謝謝你，戈庫爾。所以 Gokul 想知道，在成本較高的情況下，與政府的談判和討論如何？如何與客戶就這種成本差異進行談判和討論？

Okay. Gokul, yes. Yes, I did mention that the cost in the fab in the U.S. is higher than we expected. We are still in the construction stage of the fab. And during this past 2 years, we found that the labor cost in the States is higher than we planned. And also, some of the COVID supply chain interruption also was unexpected. And thus -- we did confer this information to the government at the location, give them a full perspective of the cost gap.

好的。高庫爾，是的。是的，我確實提到了美國工廠的成本高於我們的預期。我們仍處於工廠的建設階段。而在過去的兩年中，我們發現美國的勞動力成本比我們計劃的要高。此外，一些 COVID 供應鏈中斷也出乎意料。因此 - 我們確實將這些信息提供給了該地點的政府，讓他們全面了解成本差距。

But Gokul, is indeed the -- our customer in U.S., they all want to load that fab. I mean, this is the needs from our customers. And we also believe there is ample -- amplify our business opportunity there. So the cost is increasing, but cost is not the only factors. And we are still working on the government subsidy and we'll continue working on the cost reduction. And every company have different ways to reduce the cost. So that is the work in the process.

但是 Gokul 確實是我們在美國的客戶，他們都想加載那個晶圓廠。我的意思是，這是我們客戶的需求。而且我們也相信那裡有足夠的 - 擴大我們的商業機會。所以成本在增加，但成本並不是唯一的因素。我們仍在努力爭取政府補貼，我們將繼續努力降低成本。每個公司都有不同的方法來降低成本。這就是過程中的工作。

My second question, would the TSMC consider any kind of a joint venture fab in the U.S. with potential large customers? Historically, TSMC has done this with some of the customers like Altera and NXP long back. Would you consider any kind of joint venture fabs potentially with any of the customers in the U.S. if the outsourcing opportunity is big enough?

我的第二個問題，台積電會考慮在美國與潛在大客戶建立任何形式的合資工廠嗎？從歷史上看，台積電早就與 Altera 和 NXP 等一些客戶合作過。如果外包機會足夠大，你會考慮與美國的任何客戶建立任何類型的合資工廠嗎？

Okay. So Gokul's second question is, again, would TSMC consider any type of joint venture fab in the U.S. for outsourcing? He notes we have done certain JVs in the past. So is this something we will consider in the U.S. for outsourcing opportunities?

好的。所以 Gokul 的第二個問題是，台積電是否會考慮在美國建立任何類型的合資工廠進行外包？他指出，我們過去曾做過某些合資企業。那麼這是我們將在美國考慮外包機會的事情嗎？

Yes. Let me answer this question again. This -- our -- yes, TSMC indeed has some joint venture arrangement maybe 20 years ago within U.S. But right now, we understand -- with that experience, we understand, our customers' demand will go up and down. And we don't -- and also, we don't want to limit this fab into a specific set of customers. It's open to the RO customers base to utilize. So no, at this point, we do not plan to have a joint venture arrangement in the U.S.

是的。讓我再次回答這個問題。這 - 我們的 - 是的，台積電確實可能在 20 年前在美國有一些合資安排。但現在，我們明白 - 憑藉這種經驗，我們明白，我們的客戶需求會上下波動。而且我們不 - 而且，我們不想將這個工廠限制在特定的客戶群中。它對 RO 客戶群開放使用。所以不，在這一點上，我們不打算在美國進行合資安排。

Next one to ask question, Charles Shi from Needham and Company.

下一位要提問的是 Needham and Company 的 Charles Shi。

I want to go back, a quick clarification about N3 gross margin. You kind of mentioned, probably first time quantified how much dilution you're expecting, 2% to 3%? Can you let us know dilution relative to which number because there is one long-term gross margin number to see, 3% and higher, and there is another one which is where your gross margin is tracking. That's a few points above your long-term target. This is kind of a little bit moving target here. So can you clarify with us?

我想回過頭來，快速澄清一下 N3 的毛利率。你提到過，可能是第一次量化你期望的稀釋程度，2% 到 3%？您能否讓我們知道相對於哪個數字的稀釋度，因為有一個長期毛利率可以看到，3% 或更高，還有另一個是您的毛利率正在跟踪的數字。這比您的長期目標高出幾個點。這是一個有點移動的目標。那麼你能和我們澄清一下嗎？

So Charles is asking if we can clarify our gross margin target. His question, well, I think, again, when we talk about N3 diluting 2% to 3%, it is for the first year, right, which is 2023. And so he's wondering I think -- Charles, your question is, does this dilution continue? Does this change our long-term gross margin target? And more -- maybe more, I think he is thinking about what are the gross -- yes, sorry, let me stop there. Is that your question, Charles?

所以查爾斯問我們是否可以澄清我們的毛利率目標。他的問題，好吧，我想，當我們再次談論將 N3 稀釋 2% 到 3% 時，這是第一年，對，也就是 2023 年。所以他想知道我認為 - 查爾斯，你的問題是，確實這種稀釋還要繼續嗎？這會改變我們的長期毛利率目標嗎？還有更多——也許更多，我認為他在想什麼是粗俗的——是的，對不起，讓我停在那裡。這是你的問題嗎，查爾斯？

No. No. The 2% to 3% dilution relative to what, is my question. Is it relative to your long-term growth target, 2% to 3% and higher, or where you're tracking, which is 59%, 58%, yes, that's my question.

不。不。2% 到 3% 的稀釋相對於什麼，是我的問題。是相對於你的長期增長目標，2% 到 3% 或更高，還是你正在跟踪的地方，即 59%、58%，是的，這是我的問題。

So Charles is asking, when we talk about 2% to 3% dilution, are we looking at 53% diluting from there? Or are we looking at 59% diluting from here?

所以查爾斯問，當我們談論 2% 到 3% 的稀釋時，我們是否從那裡看到 53% 的稀釋？還是我們正在從這裡看到 59% 的稀釋？

Charles, it's diluting from next year's gross margin as we forecast. It's neither 53% nor 59%. Bear in mind that when we talk about 53% and higher, it already included the dilution effects from the N3 dilutions.

查爾斯，正如我們預測的那樣，它正在稀釋明年的毛利率。它既不是 53% 也不是 59%。請記住，當我們談論 53% 或更高時，它已經包括 N3 稀釋的稀釋效應。

Okay, Charles? Do you have a second question?

好嗎，查爾斯？你有第二個問題嗎？

I do. I have a more long-term question. Thank you, Chairman, for mentioning N2 useful package, which that includes chiplets. I want to specifically ask you about chiplets. I think you recently talked about expanding SoIC capacity by 20x through 2026. That's quite a big amount of capacity application. I think one year ago, you sort of mentioned SoIC is something you're targeting for high-performance computing application. But given the amount of capacity increases you're planning, any updated thoughts on whether that can be a technology possibly at N2 and use for smartphone platform? Any other color you can give us would be great.

我願意。我有一個更長遠的問題。主席，感謝您提到 N2 有用的包，其中包括小芯片。我想專門問你關於小芯片的問題。我想你最近談到了到 2026 年將 SoIC 容量擴大 20 倍。這是一個相當大的容量應用程序。我想一年前，您提到過 SoIC 是您針對高性能計算應用程序的目標。但是考慮到您計劃的容量增加量，關於這是否可能成為 N2 的一項技術並用於智能手機平台的任何更新想法？你能給我們的任何其他顏色都會很棒。

Okay. So Charles second question is on 3DIC. He notes that, in particular, we are talking about SoIC and also expanding the capacity there. We have said in the past, this is primarily adopted by HPC applications. His question is, with such capacity expansion, do we also expect smartphone customers to adopt 3DIC solutions like SoIC at some point in the future? Is that correct, Charles?

好的。所以查爾斯的第二個問題是關於 3DIC。他指出，特別是，我們正在談論 SoIC 並擴大那裡的產能。我們過去說過，這主要被 HPC 應用程序採用。他的問題是，隨著這樣的產能擴張，我們是否也期望智能手機客戶在未來的某個時候採用像 SoIC 這樣的 3DIC 解決方案？對嗎，查爾斯？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Let me answer this question, Charles. So far, the SoIC is primarily adopted by the HPC applications, okay. Because of -- that it's very fit for their high-speed and power efficient. But for mobile adoption, it will depend on their chiplet's architecture, interconnect density requirement, thermal or other requirement. And we will have other solution to address the mobile requirement.

好的。讓我來回答這個問題，查爾斯。到目前為止，SoIC 主要被 HPC 應用程序採用，好吧。因為——它非常適合他們的高速和節能。但對於移動應用，這將取決於它們的小芯片架構、互連密度要求、散熱或其他要求。我們將有其他解決方案來解決移動需求。

Next one to ask question, Mehdi Hosseini from Susquehanna International.

下一位要提問的是來自 Susquehanna International 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I just want to go back to the CapEx. I think the Chairman has guided back in 2021, the shipment guided to TWD 100 billion of CapEx during the 2021 through 2023 period. And now this morning, you're highlighting the fact that CapEx this year could be TWD 40 billion. So if I was to use the TWD 100 billion, the bogie suggests to me that your CapEx could be down by as much as 8% to 10% in 2023, unless you are really that TWD 100 billion guide. I just want to get some color on this, and I have a follow-up.

我只想回到資本支出。我認為主席已經在 2021 年指導了 2021 年至 2023 年期間的出貨量達到 1000 億新台幣的資本支出。現在今天早上，您要強調今年的資本支出可能達到 400 億新台幣。因此，如果我要使用 1000 億新台幣，轉向架向我建議，除非您真的是 1000 億新台幣的指導，否則您的資本支出在 2023 年可能會下降 8% 至 10%。我只是想對此有所了解，我有後續行動。

Okay. So Mehdi's first question is on our CapEx. He notes back in April of 2021, we had guided for TWD 100 billion CapEx in the next 3 years. And so now he's adding the math up for last year and this year, and wondering, does that apply -- sorry, imply a decline in our CapEx for 2023? Or do we have a new revised guidance for the CapEx spend?

好的。所以 Mehdi 的第一個問題是關於我們的資本支出。他在 2021 年 4 月指出，我們曾指導未來 3 年的資本支出為 1000 億新台幣。所以現在他把去年和今年的數學加起來，想知道這是否適用——抱歉，這意味著我們 2023 年的資本支出下降？還是我們對資本支出支出有新的修訂指南？

Mehdi, let me answer this. We're not going to talk about the TWD 100 billion today. We're not going to comment CapEx beyond 2022. We've already given the guidance range of 2022. Now as we mentioned before, every year, when we invest in CapEx, it is for the future growth opportunities. So as long as there -- we believe the future outlook is good, we will continue to invest in a disciplined manner.

Mehdi，讓我來回答這個問題。我們今天不打算談論新台幣 1000 億。我們不會對 2022 年以後的資本支出發表評論。我們已經給出了 2022 年的指導範圍。現在正如我們之前提到的，每年我們投資資本支出時，都是為了未來的增長機會。因此，只要我們相信未來前景良好，我們就會繼續以有紀律的方式進行投資。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up here. Despite the fact that CapEx was up 76% last year, 2021, the depreciation so far has been tracking flattish. It was flat in Q1, down 2% in Q2. Should I expect a big step-up in depreciation going forward?

知道了。這裡只是一個快速的跟進。儘管資本支出去年（2021 年）增長了 76%，但迄今為止的貶值一直持平。第一季度持平，第二季度下降 2%。我應該期待未來大幅貶值嗎？

Okay. So Mehdi also wants to follow up to ask about depreciation. Despite the increase in CapEx, why is the depreciation growth pretty flattish or low so far this year? And then should we expect a step-up in depreciation for 2023?

好的。所以Mehdi也想跟進詢問折舊的問題。儘管資本支出有所增加，但為什麼今年到目前為止折舊增長相當平緩或低？那麼我們是否應該期待 2023 年的貶值幅度加快？

Mehdi, every year, there are new depreciation coming in. But at the same time, there are depreciation getting out of the depreciation table. So some comes in, some goes out. This year, we expect that depreciation will grow above mid single-digits from last year. It is slower -- lower than when we guided at the beginning of the year because of some tool delivery schedule change, as C.C. mentioned earlier. Now for next year, the -- it's too early to give a specific number, but the depreciation will be much higher than this year.

Mehdi，每年都會有新的折舊進入。但與此同時，折舊表中也有折舊。所以有人進來，有人出去。今年，我們預計折舊將比去年增長到中個位數以上。由於某些工具交付時間表發生變化，它比我們在年初指導時要慢，因為 C.C.之前提到。現在對於明年，現在給出具體數字還為時過早，但貶值將比今年高得多。

Okay. And Jeff, since everyone had more than second question, may I squeeze one quick follow-up?

好的。傑夫，既然每個人都有第二個以上的問題，我可以快速跟進一下嗎？

Well, you have 1.5. I'll let you another half question, please, Mehdi, because we still have a few people on the line. Yes.

好吧，你有 1.5。拜託，我再問你半個問題，Mehdi，因為我們還有幾個人在線。是的。

Sure. I'll make it very quick. When I look at your customers, their inventories are at a 25-year high. And I think everyone is going to take a look at the seasonality in the second half. And I'm just curious, what are the key variables? What are the key metrics? Or what are the key strategies that you have in place that could mitigate the gross margin balance by this, if your customers become more aggressive in inventory correction into next year?

當然。我會做得很快的。當我查看您的客戶時，他們的庫存處於 25 年來的最高水平。我想每個人都會看看下半年的季節性。我只是好奇，關鍵變量是什麼？關鍵指標是什麼？或者，如果您的客戶在明年的庫存調整中變得更加積極，那麼您有哪些關鍵策略可以通過這種方式減輕毛利率平衡？

Okay. So Mehdi's question is noting customer inventory at customers are very high. So what would be the key variables or metrics for TSMC to mitigate our gross margin downside or risk, if customers were to adjust their inventory further? Is that correct, Mehdi?

好的。所以 Mehdi 的問題是注意到客戶的客戶庫存非常高。那麼，如果客戶進一步調整庫存，台積電減輕毛利率下降或風險的關鍵變量或指標是什麼？對嗎，邁赫迪？

Yes. If they become more aggressive in inventory correction into first half of next year.

是的。如果他們在明年上半年的庫存調整中變得更加積極。

If they were customers were to become more aggressive on their inventory correction into first half next year.

如果他們是客戶，他們將在明年上半年更積極地進行庫存調整。

Well, let me answer the question. As I stated in the remark, our customers are doing the inventory correction. But I say that customers demand still exceed the TSMC's capability to support for this year. So even they do their inventory adjustment, what I say that they decrease their demand versus their original number, TSMC's capacity is still very tight and will remain very healthy in the utilization. So that's why we can keep our gross margin intact. Did I answer your question?

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。正如我在評論中所說，我們的客戶正在進行庫存更正。但我說客戶的需求仍然超出了台積電今年的支持能力。因此，即使他們進行庫存調整，我所說的他們的需求與原來的數量相比減少了，台積電的產能仍然非常緊張，並且在利用率方面將保持非常健康的狀態。這就是為什麼我們可以保持毛利率不變的原因。我回答你的問題了嗎？

I see.

我懂了。

Next one to ask question is, Brad Lin from Bank of America.

下一個要問的問題是來自美國銀行的 Brad Lin。

So firstly, our congratulations once again on the strong earnings. And my first question is about advanced packaging. We learned the advanced packaging is very, very important for TSMC's long-term growth and TSMC has a great variety of offering to provide higher value to customers. So would you please share your insights on what are the key barriers are for wider adoption by clients? And would you expect the contribution mix to increase gradually? Or if there is a point to see an explosive growth from the advanced packaging? And by the way, we saw the news about the 3DIC recently in Japan and how will that can accelerate their progress.

因此，首先，我們再次祝賀強勁的收益。我的第一個問題是關於先進封裝的。我們了解到先進封裝對台積電的長期發展非常非常重要，台積電有多種產品可以為客戶提供更高的價值。那麼，您能否分享一下您對客戶更廣泛採用的主要障礙是什麼的見解？您是否預計貢獻組合會逐漸增加？或者是否有理由看到先進封裝的爆炸性增長？順便說一句，我們最近在日本看到了有關 3DIC 的消息，以及這將如何加速他們的進展。

Okay. So Brad's question is on advanced packaging. I believe, if I heard you correctly, what are the key barriers for wider adoption of our packaging solutions by customers? What is the long-term revenue growth outlook of advanced packaging? Is it going to be explosive growth or growth similar to the corporate average and also the role of our 3DIC center in Japan in developing advanced packaging solutions.

好的。所以布拉德的問題是關於先進封裝的。我相信，如果我沒聽錯的話，客戶更廣泛地採用我們的包裝解決方案的主要障礙是什麼？先進封裝的長期收入增長前景如何？它會是爆炸性增長還是類似於企業平均水平的增長，以及我們在日本的 3DIC 中心在開發先進封裝解決方案方面的作用。

Okay. That's a very long question, but let me answer one by one. First, we developed a very advised packaging technology to meet the customers' demand. So far today, 3DIC or SoIC, we develop for the high-speed performance, HPC applications first. And the other one, mostly starting to be adopted by all HPC customers starting from today. So we expect is gradually will ramp up. And until that's 2-nanometer, I think I have much more demand in that technology node for the 3DIC. That's what we expect. And we expect the growth of this 3DIC business will be healthy, probably a little bit ahead of TSMC's growth forecast. Now let me turn to the 3DIC center in Japan. We established 3DIC center because of Japan has a fundamental advantage on the raw material also under packaging area. For example, the substrate. They are the #1 in the world. And we need that one technology to complement the TSMC's 3DIC technology so we can serve our customer better. And that's why we established a 3DIC center -- technology development center over there. Did I answer your question?

好的。這是一個很長的問題，但讓我一一回答。首先，我們開發了一種非常實用的包裝技術來滿足客戶的需求。今天到目前為止，3DIC 或 SoIC，我們首先針對高速性能、HPC 應用進行開發。而另一種，從今天開始大部分開始被所有 HPC 客戶採用。所以我們預計會逐漸增加。在 2 納米之前，我認為我對 3DIC 的技術節點有更多的需求。這就是我們所期望的。我們預計這 3DIC 業務的增長將是健康的，可能略高於台積電的增長預測。現在讓我談談日本的3DIC中心。我們之所以成立3DIC中心，是因為日本在包裝領域的原材料上也有根本優勢。例如，基板。他們是世界第一。我們需要這項技術來補充台積電的 3DIC 技術，以便我們能夠更好地為客戶服務。這就是為什麼我們在那邊建立了一個3DIC中心——技術開發中心。我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. Yes. Very clear. So maybe another follow-up, that's also about the IC substrate. So ABF actually substrate currently plays a very important role in advance packaging, of course, especially for CoWoS and the substrate area demand potentially in largest was the increasing advanced packaging penetration. So with the rising integration level of a chip, do you expect new material to potentially replace ABF? And any plan to secure substrate supply or upgrade the designs for TSMC for future requirements? And maybe one last follow-up is that, if we compare 2.5D and 3D, would you need more substrate for 3D?

是的。是的。非常清楚。所以也許是另一個後續，這也是關於 IC 基板的。所以ABF實際上基板目前在先進封裝中起著非常重要的作用，當然，尤其是對於CoWoS，基板面積需求最大的可能是先進封裝滲透率的提高。那麼隨著芯片集成度的提高，您是否期望新材料有可能取代 ABF？是否有計劃確保台積電的基板供應或升級設計以滿足未來的需求？也許最後一個跟進是，如果我們比較 2.5D 和 3D，您是否需要更多的 3D 基板？

Okay. Well, Brad's second question is on substrates. He wants to know, with the development of substrates and the adoption, do we see further developments in terms of new materials? Will we see more substrates used in 3DIC versus 2.5D? And will we -- how do we secure the substrate supply?

好的。好吧，布拉德的第二個問題是關於基板的。他想知道，隨著基板的發展和採用，我們是否看到新材料方面的進一步發展？與 2.5D 相比，我們會看到更多用於 3DIC 的基板嗎？我們會 - 我們如何確保基板供應？

Well, this one we are working with the substrate partner. And your question is the 2D, 2.5D or 3D, both. Both are important. But let me tell you one further step. We're only interested in the very advanced technology. We are not going to develop any commodity of the substrate technology to compete in the market. No. We are developing for the very high performance computing or very large substrate to support TSMC's customer. That's our purpose.

好吧，我們正在與基材合作夥伴合作。你的問題是 2D、2.5D 或 3D，兩者都是。兩者都很重要。但讓我再告訴你一步。我們只對非常先進的技術感興趣。我們不會開發基板技術的任何商品來參與市場競爭。不，我們正在開發超高性能計算或超大基板以支持台積電的客戶。這就是我們的目的。

Next one to ask question, Krish Sankar from Cowen & Company.

下一位要提問的是來自 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. The first one is, when I look at your full year guidance of 35% revenue growth, it looks like calendar 4Q or the December quarter is going to be sequentially down more than 10%. And that hasn't happened in a long time. So I'm kind of curious, how much of that is driven by demand versus FX? And then the second question, a follow-up is, if I look at your CapEx run rate, the first half is running at about TWD 17 billion, which is below the lower end of your full year guidance. So I'm kind of curious, what are the tool delays that's causing the pushout of CapEx into next year? Is it like EUV? Is it like depth edge tools? Any color on that would be super helpful.

我有 2 個。第一個是，當我查看您的全年收入增長 35% 的指導時，看起來日曆第四季度或 12 月季度將連續下降 10% 以上。而這已經很久沒有發生了。所以我有點好奇，其中有多少是由需求和外匯驅動的？然後是第二個問題，跟進的是，如果我看一下您的資本支出運行率，上半年運行在 170 億新台幣左右，低於您全年指導的下限。所以我有點好奇，導致資本支出推遲到明年的工具延遲是什麼？和 EUV 一樣嗎？它像深度邊緣工具嗎？上面的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Okay. So Krish has 2 questions. First is looking at our full year guidance to grow mid-30s, and he says, this implies a decline in the fourth quarter?

好的。所以 Krish 有 2 個問題。首先是看我們的全年指導，以增長 30 多歲，他說，這意味著第四季度的下降？

No. I don't think so. We did the calculation. Maybe you can do that again. It's at least up.

不，我不這麼認為。我們做了計算。也許你可以再做一次。至少漲了

Yes. Krish, I would note that when we talk about mid-30s guidance, as C.C. said, that is in U.S. dollar terms. Okay?

是的。 Krish，我會注意到，當我們談論 30 年代中期的指導時，作為 C.C.說，那是用美元計算的。好的？

And then his second question is on CapEx and sort of looking at the CapEx. His question is, we have already said it will be closer to the lower end of the range. He wants to know what is driving the CapEx? Is it tool delays? Is it EUV? What types of equipment?

然後他的第二個問題是關於資本支出，有點看資本支出。他的問題是，我們已經說過它將更接近範圍的下限。他想知道是什麼推動了資本支出？是工具延遲嗎？是極紫外嗎？有哪些類型的設備？

No. I don't think we can go into that kind of details. But some of them got pushed out to next year, as C.C. mentioned. And every year, the CapEx profile can be difference quarter-by-quarter.

不，我不認為我們可以進入那種細節。但其中一些被推遲到明年，因為 C.C.提及。每年，資本支出概況可能會因季度而異。

The next one to ask questions, Frank Lee from HSBC.

下一位提問的是匯豐銀行的 Frank Lee。

I wanted to just ask a question on, I guess, the overall profitability and also pricing. It seems like this year, we start to see a foundry price increase and a bit unusual for TSMC. And going into next year, it looks like there's some manifestation of further price increases. But at the same time, we're also seeing potentially inventory correction. So just trying to understand the pricing strategy itself, is this more of a reflection of perhaps the structural profitability for this cycle being different than the past? Or are there any kind of cost that we're seeing this time that we haven't seen in past cycles.

我想問一個關於整體盈利能力和定價的問題。似乎今年，我們開始看到代工價格上漲，台積電有點不尋常。進入明年，似乎有進一步價格上漲的跡象。但與此同時，我們也看到了潛在的庫存修正。所以只是試圖了解定價策略本身，這是否更多地反映了本週期的結構盈利能力可能與過去不同？或者，我們這次看到的任何成本是我們在過去的周期中沒有看到的。

Okay. So Frank's first question is on pricing. He wants to know what is driving our pricing strategy. How do the cost inflation or factors play into it? And really what drives TSMC's pricing?

好的。所以弗蘭克的第一個問題是關於定價的。他想知道是什麼推動了我們的定價策略。成本膨脹或因素如何影響它？真正推動台積電定價的因素是什麼？

Yes. We do not comment on our pricing details. These are the private discussion between us and our customers. Having said that, our pricing is strategic and value-driven, not opportunistic or cost plus. We work closely with our customers to provide our value. And we will continue to ensure that our pricing reflects our value creations, including technology, ecosystem, and services and capacity support.

是的。我們不對我們的定價細節發表評論。這些是我們與客戶之間的私下討論。話雖如此，我們的定價是戰略性和價值驅動的，而不是機會主義或成本加成。我們與客戶密切合作以提供我們的價值。我們將繼續確保我們的定價反映我們的價值創造，包括技術、生態系統、服務和容量支持。

By taking all these actions, we believe we can achieve a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher. We do face manufacturing cost challenges. As we mentioned, rising raw materials, utilities and tool costs, et cetera. But having said that, we still think that the 53% long-term gross margin is achievable, and 53% and higher.

通過採取所有這些行動，我們相信我們可以實現 53% 或更高的長期毛利率。我們確實面臨製造成本挑戰。正如我們所提到的，原材料、公用事業和工具成本的上漲等等。但話雖如此，我們仍然認為 53% 的長期毛利率是可以實現的，53% 甚至更高。

Okay. Frank, do you have a second question?

好的。弗蘭克，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, sorry. My second question is, I understand I guess the overall view on that. But given what you guys just talked about the overall cycle, I know you still have some -- the leadership in the event side and everything else. But is there a potential bill effect where, your customers could see a stronger second half this year in anticipation of price increases? And with the adjustment going into next year, that we see some more weakness in the first half more than anticipated in the first half?

是的，對不起。我的第二個問題是，我知道我猜對此的總體看法。但是考慮到你們剛剛談到的整個週期，我知道你們仍然有一些——賽事方面的領導力和其他一切。但是，是否存在潛在的賬單效應，您的客戶在預期價格上漲的情況下會在今年下半年看到更強勁的表現？隨著調整進入明年，我們看到上半年的疲軟程度超過了上半年的預期？

Okay. Well, Frank's second question is with pricing, will -- could there be a situation where customers, I guess, will pull in more of their business to second half of this year, and thus, we would see a weaker first half next year.

好的。好吧，弗蘭克的第二個問題是定價，我猜是否會出現這樣一種情況，即客戶將把更多的業務拉到今年下半年，因此，明年上半年我們會看到疲軟。

No, we did not see that. We are actually -- we are working with our customers and we try our best to support our customers. As I said, even right now, our capacity remain very tight. So the switching between the next year's first quarter and this year's second half, no. We did not see that to simply put it.

不，我們沒有看到。實際上，我們正在與客戶合作，並儘最大努力支持我們的客戶。正如我所說，即使是現在，我們的能力仍然非常緊張。所以明年第一季度和今年下半年之間的切換，沒有。簡單地說，我們沒有看到這一點。

The last one to ask questions, Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.

最後一個提問的是德意志銀行的羅伯特·桑德斯。

Yes. I just have 2. The first one is just, if you could just discuss how much of next year's revenue is under LTA. The reason I'm asking is because there are some people in the market thinking that customers may be fearful of pushing out wafers because they may be jeopardizing agreements for next year. And then the second question would be just to on the chiplet question. I was just wondering what percentage of 2-nanometer HPC designs will be using a chiplet architecture. Is it the majority? What's the adoption rate?

是的。我只有兩個。第一個就是，如果你可以討論明年的收入中有多少是 LTA 下的。我問的原因是因為市場上有些人認為客戶可能害怕推出晶圓，因為他們可能會危及明年的協議。然後第二個問題就是關於小芯片的問題。我只是想知道有多少百分比的 2 納米 HPC 設計將使用小芯片架構。是大多數嗎？採用率是多少？

Okay. So Robert's first question is, he wants to know how much percentage of revenue do long-term agreements with customers represent for TSMC. Maybe Wendell can address this question.

好的。所以羅伯特的第一個問題是，他想知道與客戶簽訂的長期協議佔台積電收入的多少。也許溫德爾可以解決這個問題。

Yes. Robert, we don't discuss the details like that. We work very diligently and closely with the customers to plan the capacity, including receiving the prepayments for capacity support. And we will continue to work with them to decide to determine the best way to support them going forward.

是的。羅伯特，我們不討論那樣的細節。我們與客戶密切合作以規劃產能，包括接收產能支持的預付款。我們將繼續與他們合作，確定支持他們前進的最佳方式。

Okay. And then his second question is on N2. He wants to know, for HPC applications on N2, what is the percentage or that may adopt a chiplet architecture approach?

好的。然後他的第二個問題是關於 N2。他想知道，對於 N2 上的 HPC 應用程序，可能採用小芯片架構方法的百分比是多少？

I cannot release the number. But let me assure you that the number of the customers using the chiplet in the N2 or the 2-nanometer technology will start to increase and that will become a major approach in the 2-nanometer and the following technologies.

我無法釋放號碼。但讓我向你保證，在 N2 或 2 納米技術中使用小芯片的客戶數量將開始增加，這將成為 2 納米及以下技術的主要方法。

Okay? Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Robert. And thank you, everyone. This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within one hour from now. And the transcript will become available 24 hours from now. Both of which you can find available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

好的？謝謝你，C.C.謝謝你，羅伯特。謝謝大家。我們的問答環節到此結束。在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起一小時內可以觀看會議的重播。成績單將在 24 小時後提供。您可以通過 TSMC 的網站 www.tsmc.com 找到這兩者。

So thank you for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe. And we hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.

所以，感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都繼續保持健康和安全。我們希望你能在下個季度再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。