台積電 ADR (TSM) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

(外語)大家下午好，歡迎參加台積電2021年第四季業績電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監、今天節目的主持人 Jeff Su。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our Earnings Conference Call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 以現場音訊網路直播的方式召開收益電話會議，您也可以在該網站上下載收益發布資料。如果您透過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路將處於只聽模式。

The format for today's event will be as follows: First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter 2021, followed by our guidance for the first quarter 2022. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

今天活動的形式如下：首先，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃溫德爾先生將總結我們 2021 年第四季度的運營情況，然後介紹我們對 2022 年第一季度的指導。魏先生將共同提供該公司的關鍵資訊。然後，台積電董事長劉德華博士將主持問答環節，三位高階主管將解答您的問題。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將電話轉給台積電財務長黃文德先生，請他總結營運情況並給予本季指引。

Thank you, Jeff. Happy New Year, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of full year [2021] (corrected by company after the call). After that, I will provide the guidance for the first quarter 2022.

謝謝你，傑夫。大家新年快樂。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從第四季度的財務亮點和全年[2021]的回顧開始（電話會議後公司進行了更正）。之後，我將提供 2022 年第一季的指導。

Fourth quarter revenue increased 5.7% sequentially in NT dollar or 5.8% in U.S. dollar. As our fourth quarter business was supported by the strong demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer technology. Gross margin increased 1.4 percentage points sequentially to 52.7%, mainly due to the continuous cost improvement efforts. Operating margin increased 0.5 percentage point sequentially to 41.7%, slightly ahead of our guidance as we enjoyed higher operating leverage and a portion of the vaccine donation expenses got pushed out to the first quarter. Overall, our fourth quarter EPS was TWD 6.41 and ROE was 31.3%.

第四季營收以新台幣計算季增5.7%，以美元計算季增5.8%。由於我們第四季度的業務受到了對我們行業領先的 5 奈米技術的強勁需求的支撐。毛利率較上月上升1.4個百分點至52.7%，主要得益於持續的成本優化努力。營業利潤率較上季成長 0.5 個百分點至 41.7%，略高於我們的預期，因為我們享有更高的營業槓桿，且部分疫苗捐贈費用延後至第一季。整體而言，我們第四季的每股收益為6.41新台幣，淨資產收益率為31.3%。

Now let's move on to the revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 23% of wafer revenue in the fourth quarter while 7-nanometer accounted for 27%. Advanced technology, which are defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 50% of wafer revenue.

現在讓我們來討論一下按技術劃分的收入。 5奈米製程技術在第四季度貢獻了晶圓收入的23%，而7奈米製程技術則貢獻了27%。先進技術（定義為7奈米及以下）佔晶圓收入的50％。

On a full year basis, 5-nanometer revenue contribution came in at 19% of 2021 wafer revenue. 7-nanometer was 31%. Advanced technologies accounted for 50% of total wafer revenue, up from 41% in 2020.

從全年來看，5 奈米收入貢獻佔 2021 年晶圓收入的 19%。 7奈米為31%。先進技術佔晶圓總收入的 50%，高於 2020 年的 41%。

Now moving on to revenue contribution by platform. All platforms increased in the fourth quarter. Smartphone increased 7% quarter-over-quarter to account for 44% of our fourth quarter revenue. HPC increased 3% to account for 37%. IoT increased 3% to account for 9%. Automotive increased 10% to account for 4%. And digital consumer electronics increased 2% to account for 3%.

現在來談談平台的營收貢獻。第四季所有平台均實現成長。智慧型手機季增 7%，占我們第四季營收的 44%。 HPC增加3%，佔37%。物聯網成長3%，佔9%。汽車製造業成長了 10%，佔 4%。其中數位消費性電子產品成長2%，佔3%。

On a full year basis, all 6 platforms experienced year-on-year growth. HPC, IoT and automotive saw strong growth of 34%, 21% and 51%, respectively. Smartphone also increased 8%, and DCE increased 2% in 2021. Overall, smartphone accounted for 44% of our 2021 revenue. HPC accounted for 37% and IoT accounted for 8%.

從全年來看，6個平台均實現年成長。 HPC、物聯網和汽車分別實現 34%、21% 和 51% 的強勁成長。智慧型手機也成長了 8%，大商所 2021 年成長了 2%。 HPC佔37%，IoT佔8%。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 1.2 trillion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 84 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD 22 billion in accounts payable and the increase of TWD 61 billion in accrued liabilities and others. Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD 150 billion mainly as we raised TWD 157 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter.

繼續討論資產負債表。截至第四季度，我們的現金和有價證券總額為1.2兆新台幣。負債方面，流動負債增加840億元，主要由於應付帳款增加220億元，預計負債及其他增加610億元。長期有息債務增加了1,500億新台幣，主要是因為我們本季籌集了1,570億新台幣的公司債。

On financial ratios. Accounts receivable turnover days remained at 40 days, while days of inventory increased 3 days to 88 days.

關於財務比率。應收帳款週轉天數維持在40天，庫存天數增加3天至88天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD 378 billion in cash from operations, including TWD 80 billion prepayment from customers; spent TWD 236 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 71 billion for first quarter '21 cash dividends. Bonds payable increased by TWD 157 billion due to the bond issuances. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 211 billion to TWD 1.1 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar term, our fourth quarter capital expenditures totaled USD 8.46 billion.

現在，讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第四季度，我們經營活動產生的現金流量約3,780億新台幣，其中包括來自客戶預付款800億新台幣；資本支出2,360億新台幣，21年第一季派發現金股利710億新台幣。應付債券因發行債券而增加新台幣1,570億元。總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 2,110 億新台幣，達到 1.1 兆新台幣。以美元計算，我們第四季的資本支出總計 84.6 億美元。

Now let's look at the recap of our performance in 2021. We saw a strong growth in 2021 as our technology leadership position enabled us to capture the industry's megatrend of 5G and HPC. Our revenue increased 24.9% in U.S. dollar terms to reach USD 57 billion. In NT dollar terms, revenue increased 18.5% as the NT appreciated by 5% during the year. Such unfavorable foreign exchange rate also impacted our gross margin by about 2 percentage points. In addition, N5 dilution also created a headwind to our margin. However, as we continue to drive cost improvements, we were able to achieve gross margin of 51.6% and operating margin of 40.9% in 2021.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們在 2021 年的業績。我們的營收以美元計算成長了 24.9%，達到 570 億美元。以新台幣計算，年內新台幣升值5%，令營業收入增加18.5%。這種不利的匯率也對我們的毛利率影響了約2個百分點。此外，N5稀釋也對我們的利潤造成了阻力。然而，隨著我們繼續推動成本改善，我們在 2021 年實現了 51.6% 的毛利率和 40.9% 的營業利潤率。

Overall, full year EPS increased 15.2% to TWD 23.01, and ROE was 29.7%.

整體而言，全年每股盈餘成長15.2%至新台幣23.01元，股本回報率為29.7%。

On cash flow. We spent TWD 839 billion in CapEx while we generated $1.1 trillion in operating capital and TWD 273 billion in free cash flow. We also paid TWD 266 billion in cash dividends in 2021.

關於現金流。我們的資本支出為8,390億新台幣，但營運資本卻錄得1.1兆美元，自由現金流則為2,730億新台幣。 2021年我們還派發了2,660億新台幣的現金股利。

I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance.

我已經完成我的財務摘要。現在讓我們來看看本季的指引。

We expect our business in the first quarter to be supported by HPC-related demand, continued recovery in the automotive segment and a milder smartphone seasonality than in recent years.

我們預計第一季的業務將受到 HPC 相關需求、汽車領域的持續復甦以及比近年來更為溫和的智慧型手機季節性的影響。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our first quarter revenue to be between USD 16.6 billion and USD 17.2 billion, which represents a 7.4% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第一季營收將在 166 億美元至 172 億美元之間，中間值環比成長 7.4%。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 27.6, gross margin is expected to be between 53% and 55%, operating margin between 42% and 44%. Lastly, our 2022 effective tax rate is between 10% to 11%.

以1美元兌27.6新台幣的匯率假設計算，預計毛利率介於53%至55%之間，營業利潤率介於42%至44%之間。最後，我們 2022 年的有效稅率在 10% 至 11% 之間。

This concludes my financial presentation. Now I will move on to key messages. I will start by making some comments on our 2022 capital budget and depreciation.

我的財務報告到此結束。現在我將講一些關鍵資訊。我將首先對我們的 2022 年資本預算和折舊發表一些評論。

Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years. We are witnessing a structural increase in underlying semiconductor demand underpinned by the industry megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications. In 2021, we spent USD 30 billion to capture the strong demand and support our customers' growth. In 2022, our capital budget is expected to be between USD 40 billion to USD 44 billion.

每年，我們的資本支出都是為了預期未來幾年的成長。我們正在見證半導體基礎需求的結構性成長，這得益於 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的產業大趨勢。 2021年，我們投入300億美元來滿足強勁需求並支持客戶的成長。 2022年，我們的資本預算預計在400億美元至440億美元之間。

Out of the USD 40 billion to USD 44 billion CapEx for 2022, between 70% and 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 2-nanometer, 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making and 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies.

在 2022 年 400 億至 440 億美元的資本支出中，70% 至 80% 的資本預算將分配給先進製程技術，包括 2 奈米、3 奈米、5 奈米和 7 奈米。約10%將用於先進封裝和掩模製造，10%至20%將用於特色技術。

Our depreciation expense is expected to increase by low to mid-teens percentage year-over-year in 2022 as newly incurred depreciation will be partially offset by other nodes rolling off depreciation. With this level of CapEx spending in 2022, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to a sustainable cash dividend on both an annual and quarterly basis.

預計 2022 年我們的折舊費用將比去年同期增加低至百分之十幾到十幾個百分點，因為新發生的折舊將被其他節點的折舊部分抵消。鑑於 2022 年的資本支出水平，我們重申台積電仍致力於年度和季度可持續的現金股利。

Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

Thank you, Wendell. We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time. First, let me start with our 2022 outlook. We expect 2022 to be another strong growth year for TSMC. For the full year of 2022, we forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory, to grow approximately 9% while foundry industry growth is forecast to be close to 20%.

謝謝你，溫德爾。我們希望每個人在這段時間都能保持安全和健康。首先，讓我先談談我們對 2022 年的展望。我們預計 2022 年將是台積電另一個強勁成長的一年。就 2022 年全年而言，我們預測不包括記憶體的整體半導體市場將成長約 9%，而代工產業的成長率預計將接近 20%。

For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow between mid- to high 20s percent in 2022 in U.S. dollar term.

對於台積電而言，我們有信心能夠超越代工收入成長，到 2022 年以美元計算實現 20% 左右的成長率。

Our 2022 business will be fueled by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced and specialty technologies, where we see strong interest from all 4 growth platforms, which are smartphone, HPC, IoT, and automotive.

我們 2022 年的業務將受到對我們行業領先的先進和專業技術的強勁需求的推動，我們看到智慧型手機、HPC、物聯網和汽車這四個成長平台都表現出濃厚的興趣。

Entering 2022, we expect the supply chain to maintain a higher level of inventory as compared to the historical seasonal level given the industry's continued need to ensure supply security. While the short-term imbalance may or may not persist, we continue to observe the structural increase in long-term semiconductor demand underpinned by the industry megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications. We also observed the higher silicon content in many end devices, including automotive, PCs, servers, networking and smartphones. As a result, we expect our capacity to remain tight throughout 2022 as we believe our technology leadership will enable TSMC to capture the strong demand for our advanced and specialty technologies.

進入2022年，鑑於業界持續需要確保供應安全，我們預計供應鏈將維持比歷史季節性更高的庫存水準。雖然短期不平衡可能會持續，也可能不會持續，但我們繼續觀察到，受 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的行業大趨勢支撐，長期半導體需求將出現結構性增長。我們也發現許多終端設備中的矽含量較高，包括汽車、個人電腦、伺服器、網路和智慧型手機。因此，我們預計我們的產能在 2022 年全年仍將保持緊張，因為我們相信我們的技術領先地位將使台積電能夠滿足對我們先進和專業技術的強勁需求。

Next, let me talk about TSMC's long-term growth outlook and profitability. We are entering a period of higher structural growth. As the technology becomes more pervasive and essential in people's lives, and the digital transformation accelerates, the semiconductor industry value in supply chain is increasing.

接下來我來講一下台積電的長期成長前景和獲利能力。我們正進入更高結構性成長時期。隨著科技在人們生活中變得越來越普遍和重要，數位轉型不斷加速，半導體產業在供應鏈中的價值正在增加。

As we embark upon the 5G era, an intelligent and more connected world will fuel massive requirement for computation power and prepare greater need for energy-efficient computing, which demand greater use of leading-edge technologies. The multiyear megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications will drive modest volume growth and more importantly, spur substantial semiconductor content enrichment in HPC, smartphone, automotive and IoT applications to address the structural increase in the long-term market demand profile.

隨著我們進入5G時代，一個更智慧、更互聯的世界將對運算能力產生巨大的需求，並對節能運算提出更大的需求，這需要更多地使用尖端技術。 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的多年大趨勢將推動適度的銷售成長，更重要的是，刺激 HPC、智慧型手機、汽車和物聯網應用中的半導體內容大幅豐富，以應對長期市場需求的結構性成長。

TSMC is working closely with our customers to plan our capacity and investing in leading-edge and specialty technology to support their demand.

台積電正與我們的客戶密切合作，規劃我們的產能，並投資尖端和專業技術來滿足他們的需求。

At the same time, we are committed to achieve a sustainable and proper return that enables us to invest to support our customers' growth and deliver long-term profitable growth for our shareholders.

同時，我們致力於實現可持續的、適當的回報，使我們能夠進行投資以支持客戶的成長並為股東帶來長期獲利成長。

Over the last 3 years, we have raised our CapEx spending from USD 14.9 billion in 2019 to USD 30 billion in 2021 as we invest in anticipation of the growth that will follow. During the same period, our revenue in U.S. dollar term has increased from USD 34.6 billion in 2019 to USD 56.8 billion in 2021 or 1.6x and our EPS by 1.7x.

在過去 3 年中，我們為預期隨後的成長而進行投資，將資本支出從 2019 年的 149 億美元提高到 2021 年的 300 億美元。同期，我們的美元營收從 2019 年的 346 億美元增加到 2021 年的 568 億美元，成長了 1.6 倍，每股盈餘成長了 1.7 倍。

Looking ahead, as the world's largest, reliable and effective capacity provider with our technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust, we are well positioned to capture the growth from the favorable industry megatrend with our differentiated technologies. We expect our long-term revenue to be between 15% and 20% CAGR over the next several years in U.S. dollar terms, of course, fueled by all 4 growth platform which are smartphone, HPC, IoT and automotive.

展望未來，作為全球最大的、可靠和有效的產能提供商，憑藉我們的技術領先地位、卓越的製造能力和客戶信任，我們有能力利用我們的差異化技術，抓住有利的行業大趨勢帶來的增長。我們預計，未來幾年我們的長期收入以美元計算的複合年增長率在 15% 至 20% 之間，當然，這得益於智慧型手機、HPC、物聯網和汽車這四大增長平台的推動。

With the increasing need for computation, HPC will be the strongest driver of TSMC's long-term growth and expect it to be the largest contributor in terms of our incremental revenue growth with the CPU, GPU and AI accelerators as the main growth area for our HPC platform.

隨著運算需求的不斷增長，HPC將成為台積電長期成長的最強勁動力，並預計它將成為我們增量收入成長的最大貢獻者，而CPU、GPU和AI加速器將成為我們HPC平台的主要成長領域。

As we invest in leading-edge and specialty technology to support our customers' demand, we continue to face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading-edge node, new investment in mature node, expansion of our global manufacturing footprint and rising materials and basic commodity cost. We are continuing to work closely with our customer to support their growth, and our pricing strategy will remain strategic, not optimistic, to reflect our value creation.

隨著我們投資尖端和專業技術來滿足客戶的需求，我們繼續面臨製造成本的挑戰，這是由於尖端節點的工藝複雜性不斷增加、成熟節點的新投資、全球製造足跡的擴大以及材料和基本商品成本的上漲。我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，支持他們的成長，我們的定價策略將保持策略性，而不是樂觀的，以反映我們的價值創造。

We will also work diligently in our own fab operation and with our suppliers to deliver on cost improvement. By taking such actions, we believe a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher is achievable, and we can earn a sustainable and proper return of greater than 25% ROE through the cycle. Thus, even as we shoulder a greater burden of CapEx investment for the industry, we can continue to invest to support our customers' growth and deliver long-term profitable growth for our shareholders.

我們還將努力在我們自己的晶圓廠運營中並與我們的供應商合作以實現成本改進。透過這些行動，我們相信長期毛利率達到53%以上是可以實現的，並且在整個週期內可以獲得超過25% ROE的可持續、合理的回報。因此，即使我們承擔了行業更大的資本支出投資負擔，我們仍可以繼續投資以支持客戶的成長並為股東實現長期獲利成長。

Now I will talk about N5 and N4P and N4X status. As our N5 enter its third year of ramp, demand continues to be very strong, driven by smartphone and HPC applications.

現在我將討論 N5 和 N4P 以及 N4X 狀態。隨著我們的 N5 進入發展的第三年，在智慧型手機和 HPC 應用的推動下，需求持續強勁。

Our N5 has proven to be the industry's most competitive leading-edge technology. To further enhance our N5 family's performance, power and density improvement for next-wave 5-nanometer products, we also introduced the N4P and N4X technologies.

我們的N5已被證明是業界最具競爭力的尖端技術。為了進一步增強我們的 N5 系列的性能、功率和密度改進，以滿足下一代 5 奈米產品的需求，我們也推出了 N4P 和 N4X 技術。

N4P offers 11% performance boost as compared to the N5 with 22% improvement in power efficiency and 6% density gain. N4P is designed for easy migration from N5 with its products tape-out schedule for second half 2022.

與 N5 相比，N4P 的性能提升了 11%，功率效率提高了 22%，密度增加了 6%。 N4P 旨在輕鬆從 N5 遷移，其產品流片計劃於 2022 年下半年完成。

We also introduced N4X as an offering especially optimized for workload-intensive HPC applications. N4X will offer much more circuit performance boost over N5 and we expect it to enter risk production in first half 2023. With our continuous enhancement of our N5 process technologies, we expect demand for our N5 family to continue to grow in the next several years, and for N5 family to be a large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

我們還推出了 N4X，作為專門針對工作負載密集型 HPC 應用程式優化的產品。 N4X 將比 N5 提供更大的電路性能提升，我們預計它將於 2023 年上半年投入風險生產。

Next, let me talk about the N3 and N3E status, our N3 technology will use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost for our customers. Our N3 technology development is on track. We have developed complete platform support for both HPC and the smartphone applications. N3 production will start in second half of 2022. We continue to see a high level of customer engagement at N3, and expect more new tape-outs for N3 for the first year as compared with N5.

接下來我來講N3和N3E的情況，我們的N3技術會採用FinFET電晶體結構，為客戶提供最好的技術成熟度、效能和成本。我們的N3技術開發正在順利進行中。我們已經為 HPC 和智慧型手機應用程式開發了完整的平台支援。 N3 的生產將於 2022 年下半年開始。

N3E will further extend our N3E family with the enhanced performance, power and yield. We also observed a high level of customer engagement at N3E, and volume production is scheduled for 1 year after N3. Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced. With our technology leadership and strong customer demand, we are confident that our N3E family will be another large and long-last node for TSMC.

N3E 將透過增強的性能、功率和產量進一步擴展我們的 N3E 系列。我們還觀察到 N3E 的客戶參與度很高，並且計劃在 N3 推出一年後進行大量生產。我們的3奈米技術一旦推出，無論是在PPA或電晶體技術方面，都將成為最先進的代工技術。憑藉我們的技術領先地位和強勁的客戶需求，我們相信我們的 N3E 系列將成為另一個台積電的大型且持久的節點。

Finally, let me talk about our mature node capacity strategy. TSMC's strategy at mature nodes is to work closely with our customers to develop a specialty technology solutions to meet customers' requirement and create differentiated and long-lasting value to customers. We expect the multiyear industry megatrend of 5G and HPC and the higher silicon content in many end devices, to drive increasing demand and mature nodes for certain specialty technologies.

最後我講一下我們成熟的節點容量策略。台積電在成熟節點的策略是與客戶緊密合作，開發特色技術解決方案，滿足客戶的需求，為客戶創造差異化、持久的價值。我們預計，5G 和 HPC 的多年行業大趨勢以及許多終端設備中更高的矽含量將推動某些專業技術的需求增加和節點成熟。

We forecast 28-nanometer will be the sweet spot for our embedded memory applications and our long-term structural demand at 28-nanometer to be supported by multiple specialty technologies. In support of our specialty technology strategies, we are expanding our 28-nanometer manufacturing capacity at sites in China, Japan and Taiwan.

我們預測 28 奈米將成為我們嵌入式記憶體應用的最佳選擇，並且我們對 28 奈米的長期結構性需求將得到多種專業技術的支援。為了支持我們的專業技術策略，我們正在中國、日本和台灣的工廠擴大 28 奈米製造能力。

Our capacity expansion is based on customers' need, business opportunities, operating efficiency and cost economic considerations. We believe the expansion of our mature node capacity will enable us to better serve our customers' needs and reach global talents, and our differentiated specialty technology will enable us to capture the demand generated from the industry megatrend and deliver long-term profitable growth for our shareholders.

我們的產能擴張是基於客戶需求、商業機會、營運效率及成本經濟考量。我們相信，成熟節點容量的擴大將使我們能夠更好地滿足客戶的需求並接觸全球人才，而我們差異化的專業技術將使我們能夠抓住行業大趨勢產生的需求，並為股東帶來長期盈利增長。

This concluding our key message. Thank you for your attention.

這就是我們的關鍵訊息。感謝您的關注。

Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared remarks. (Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，C.C。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。 (操作員指示)如果您想用中文提出您的問題，我會將其翻譯成英文，然後我們的管理層才會回答您的問題。 （操作員指令）

Now we will proceed to the Q&A session. Our Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will be the host.

現在我們進入問答環節。我們的董事長劉馬克博士將擔任主持人。

Hello, everyone. This is Mark Liu. I want to send my regards to every one of you during this pandemic and wish we have a happy and a successful 2022. Thank you.

大家好。我是馬克·劉。我想向你們每一個人在疫情期間致以問候，並祝福我們 2022 年幸福快樂、萬事如意。

Thank you, Chairman. Let's begin the Q&A session now. Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line?

謝謝主席。現在讓我們開始問答環節。接線生，我們可以繼續接聽第一位來電嗎？

First to ask questions, Randy Abrams from Credit Suisse.

首先提問的是瑞士信貸的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

Okay. Yes. Congratulations on the results and the outlook and margins. First question on the growth outlook. When we compare the growth expectation mid- to high 20% versus if I roll up the fabless and IDM customers, they're about mid-teens growth. So your outgrowth looks much wider than most peers. Could you break it down a bit more, the factors between share gain, pricing moves? And also if there's any component of inventory build in there?

好的。是的。恭喜你們所取得的成果、前景和利潤。第一個問題是關於成長前景。當我們將成長預期中高 20% 與無晶圓廠和 IDM 客戶進行比較時，他們的成長率約為十五六%。因此，你的成長前景比大多數同齡人都要廣闊得多。能否進一步分析股價上漲和價格變動之間的因素？其中是否有任何庫存建設部分？

Okay. Randy, let me summarize your first question. I believe your question is referring to the 2022 growth outlook. And Randy...

好的。蘭迪，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。我相信您的問題是指 2022 年的成長前景。還有蘭迪…

That's right.

這是正確的。

Right. And so Randy is saying, TSMC's guidance of mid- to high 20s percentage, his calculation show that the fabless industry is growing maybe around mid-teens. So we will outgrow the foundry -- sorry, the fabless. And so he is wondering what is driving this outgrowth. Is it share gain? Pricing? Are there other factors, such as inventory build, into this? And if we can share.

正確的。所以蘭迪說，台積電預計的增長速度為 25% 到 30%，他的計算表明，無晶圓廠行業的增長率可能在 15% 左右。因此，我們的發展速度將超越代工廠——抱歉，是無晶圓廠。所以他想知道是什麼推動了這種成長。是股利嗎？定價？還有其他因素嗎，例如庫存增加？如果我們可以分享的話。

Okay. Let me answer the question. This is C.C. Wei. Actually, the growth in 2022 is all the above you just mentioned. It's a share gain, it's the pricing and also its a unit growth. Did I answer your question?

好的。讓我來回答這個問題。這是 C.C。韋。其實2022年的成長就是你剛才說的這些。這是股價上漲、定價上漲，也是單位成長。我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes, mostly. And maybe just a quick -- two quick follow-ups to that. If you could break the growth by platform and if you could indicate just how much -- like how much do you think your customers want to put in place for inventory? Like how big a component do you think that factor is?

是的，大部分都是。也許只是快速的——兩個快速的後續問題。如果您能按平台細分成長情況並指出具體數量—例如，您認為您的客戶願意投入多少庫存？您認為這個因素有多大？

Okay. So Randy's follow-up is, can we give our 2022 growth by platform outlook? And then how much of a role is inventory build plan in this growth?

好的。那麼蘭迪的後續問題是，我們能否依平台展望 2022 年的成長？那麼庫存建設計劃在這一成長中發揮了多大的作用？

Randy, this is Wendell. Let me answer the platform question. In 2022, we expect the HPC and automotive to grow faster than the corporate average. IoT, similar. Smartphones close to the corporate average. That's the platform growth.

蘭迪，這是溫德爾。讓我回答一下平台問題。 2022 年，我們預計 HPC 和汽車產業的成長速度將超過企業平均值。物聯網，類似。智慧型手機接近企業平均。這就是平台成長。

And then Randy's second part is how much of a role is inventory build playing in this?

然後蘭迪的第二部分是庫存建設在其中發揮了多大的作用？

Well, Randy, as C.C. mentioned at the key messages, we expect the inventory level to remain high, higher than before for a longer period of time, but we're not able to quantify that factor.

好吧，蘭迪，飾演 C.C.正如關鍵資訊中所提到的，我們預計庫存水準將在較長時間內維持在高位，高於先前水平，但我們無法量化這一因素。

Okay. No [I understand]. If I could ask a second question, you disclosed about the -- you're getting more prepayments, and a lot of customers have been disclosing those. If you could talk about the strategy behind this as far as the main objectives of the program and the protection you're looking for if we go into a downturn, what the scenario would be? So if you could disclose kind of that -- the strategy behind that.

好的。不，我明白。如果我可以問第二個問題，您披露了有關——您獲得了更多的預付款，並且許多客戶都披露了這些內容。您能否談談該計劃背後的策略，例如該計劃的主要目標，以及如果經濟陷入低迷，您所尋求的保護措施，那麼會出現什麼樣的情況？所以如果你可以透露這背後的策略。

Okay. Randy, the prepayment, yes, we work closely and diligently with the customer to plan the capacity, including receiving their prepayments for capacity support. And we will continue to work with them to determine the best way to support them. Such commitments or prepayment will strengthen our cash position and help mitigate our capital risk in capacity.

好的。蘭迪，預付款，是的，我們與客戶密切、勤勉地合作來規劃產能，包括收到他們的產能支援預付款。我們將繼續與他們合作，找到支持他們的最佳方式。此類承諾或預付款將增強我們的現金狀況並有助於降低我們的資本風險。

Now talking about securing commitment, we always work closely with our customers, and we believe that technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and earning customer trust are a -- the best -- or the most effective way to secure customer commitments. So as far as we plan our capacity well based on the structural increase, in the long-term market demand profile, we believe our utilization and profitability can be well protected.

現在談到獲得承諾，我們始終與客戶密切合作，我們相信技術領先、製造卓越和贏得客戶信任是獲得客戶承諾的最佳或最有效的方式。因此，只要我們根據結構性成長做好產能規劃，在長期市場需求狀況下，我們相信我們的利用率和獲利能力能夠得到很好的保障。

Okay. Thank you, Wendell. Randy, does that address your second question?

好的。謝謝你，溫德爾。蘭迪，這回答了你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes. It's more about in a downturn, I guess, is it also a -- could it be assurance in terms of volume or still some cash flow, like to protect the amount you have to outlay, so it is also kind of an insurance policy of some sort?

是的。我想，這更多的是在經濟低迷時期，它是否也是一種——它能否在數量或仍有一些現金流方面提供保證，比如保護你必須支出的金額，所以它也是某種保險單？

Well, yes. Randy, I think, as I just mentioned, the best way is to work with the customers and gain their commitment through our technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and therefore, earning their trust. So if we plan our capacity well based on the structural demand in the industry, then I think our utilization and profitability can be maintained. Thank you.

嗯，是的。蘭迪，我認為，正如我剛才提到的，最好的方式是與客戶合作，透過我們的技術領先地位和卓越的製造能力獲得他們的承諾，從而贏得他們的信任。因此，如果我們根據產業的結構性需求規劃好我們的產能，那麼我認為我們的利用率和獲利能力就可以維持。謝謝。

Yes. thank you, Randy.

是的。謝謝你，蘭迪。

The next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一位提問的是高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Congratulations on the great result. I think management mentioned about a $1 trillion semiconductor market size in 2020 -- by 2030. So can we have more color about the foundry market size by then? Or for the key growth drivers, such as HPC, can TSMC provide a more quantitative forecast? For example, like what is the addressable market for ARM-based CPU in 2025 or 2030?

恭喜您取得優異成績。我認為管理階層提到 2020 年至 2030 年半導體市場規模將達到 1 兆美元。或是關鍵的成長動力，例如HPC，台積電能否提供更量化的預測？例如，2025 年或 2030 年基於 ARM 的 CPU 的潛在市場是什麼？

Okay. Bruce, let me summarize your first question. So Bruce is saying we have talked about a $1 trillion foundry market by 2030. So he wants to know what can be the key drivers here, and also the role of HPC, including ARM-based in this outlook.

好的。布魯斯，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。布魯斯說，我們已經討論過到 2030 年晶圓代工市場規模將達到 1 兆美元。

okay. Bruce, this is Mark. We don't have a very specific forecast for 2030 to share with you. $1 trillion is our model and so has been quoted by general industrial comments.

好的。布魯斯，這是馬克。我們沒有針對 2030 年的非常具體的預測可以與大家分享。 1兆美元是我們的模型，一般的工業評論也引用了這個模型。

However, we do believe that high growth approach to the number is happening. We believe the semiconductor industry growth will continue, fueled by the -- C.C. just mentioned, structural megatrend 5G and high-performance computing. And also, our leading-edge technology provide the most energy-efficient technology for computation and accelerate the digital transformation for the next several years.

然而，我們確實相信這個數字正在快速成長。我們相信，在 C.C. 的推動下，半導體產業將繼續成長。剛才提到了，結構性大趨勢5G和高效能運算。而且，我們領先的技術為運算提供了最節能的技術，並加速了未來幾年的數位轉型。

So -- but if you look at the -- if we -- want me to comment on the foundry industry, it's pretty clear. The foundry industry growth will be higher because, in addition to a fabless company, IDM outsourcing will continue increasing in a fast growth rate. And most importantly, system companies will grow, particularly faster during this period of time.

所以 - 但是如果你看一下 - 如果我們 - 想讓我對代工行業發表評論，那就很清楚了。晶圓代工產業的成長將會更高，因為除了無晶圓廠公司之外，IDM外包仍將繼續以快速的成長速度成長。最重要的是，系統公司將會成長，特別是在這段時間內成長得更快。

So in that sense, we believe the foundry growth -- foundry industry growth will have a good year better than other sectors.

因此從這個意義上來說，我們相信代工產業的成長——代工產業的成長將比其他產業更好。

And then Bruce also asking about the role of HPC in this growth outlook, including the ARM.

然後布魯斯也詢問了 HPC 在這個成長前景中的作用，包括 ARM。

Well, ARM is a new phenomenon. I think the CPU architecture no longer been dominant by 1 architecture. Multiple architectures provided their better integration with software, provide a much wider application of CPUs. And that no matter what the CPU, which architecture they are, currently, we are engaging to all CPU architecture customers.

嗯，ARM 是一個新現象。我認為CPU架構不再由1種架構主導。多種架構提供了與軟體更好的集成，提供了更廣泛的CPU應用。無論是什麼 CPU，是什麼架構，目前我們都在與所有 CPU 架構的客戶合作。

Okay. Bruce, does that answer your first question?

好的。布魯斯，這回答了你的第一個問題嗎？

Yes, but I try to ask a follow-up for the -- addressing for HPC. I mean within that HPC, we understand that this is the fast growth effect. Can you provide some more like different like growth magnitude within the HPC? Which part of the HPC is growing faster? And how big could that be in 3 to 5 years?

是的，但我嘗試詢問有關 HPC 的後續問題。我的意思是，在 HPC 內部，我們知道這是快速成長效應。您能否提供更多類似 HPC 內不同的成長幅度？ HPC 中哪個部分成長較快？ 3 至 5 年後這個數字會達到多大？

Well Bruce, this is C.C. Wei again. No, we cannot disclose all the details on each segment. for example, CPU, GPU and AI accelerator, which one is more -- what kind of percentage. In fact, they are all growing, but for the specific percentage, we don't comment right now.

嗯，布魯斯，我是 C.C.又韋。不，我們不能透露每個部分的所有細節。比如說CPU、GPU、AI加速器哪個佔比較大──佔比怎麼樣。事實上它們都在增長，但對於具體的百分比，我們現在不予評論。

Okay, Bruce?

好嗎，布魯斯？

I understand. Yes.

我明白。是的。

Okay. do you have a second question?

好的。您還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes. The second question is regarding to the 28-nanometer, actually know that 28-nanometer is the biggest node among all the process node within TSMC, and which suffered low utilization rate in 2018 and '19. So with the recent announcement in Nanjing or Japan or even in Kaohsiung, it suggests another 50% of capacity growth in 28-nanometer alone in TSMC. Not to mention like your industry peer are all aggressively in expanding the 28-nanometer.

是的。第二個問題是關於28奈米的，實際上知道28奈米是台積電所有製程節點中最大的節點，並且在2018年和2019年的利用率很低。因此，根據最近南京、日本甚至高雄發布的公告，台積電僅在 28 奈米製程的產能就將再成長 50%。更不用說您的行業同行都在積極擴展 28 奈米技術。

Can you provide like more like growth driver? And how can you feel comfortable to expand the capacity in this magnitude in the coming years when a lot of like financial industry we're talking about, like down cycle or a cycle peak or oversupply in 2023?

您能提供更多類似的成長動力嗎？當我們談論的許多金融業都面臨下行週期、週期高峰或 2023 年供應過剩的情況時，您如何能安心地在未來幾年內擴大如此大規模的產能？

Okay. Bruce's second question is on 28-nanometer. He notes that we are, as C.C. said, expanding our capacity in 28-nanometer in various locations, but he also notes that other foundry peers in the industry are also expanding as well. So he wants to know the risk, I guess, of oversupply.

好的。布魯斯的第二個問題是關於28奈米的。他指出，我們正如 C.C. 一樣。表示，我們正在不同地點擴大 28 奈米的產能，但他也指出，業內其他代工廠同行也在擴張。所以我猜他想知道供應過剩的風險。

Well, good question. As you pointed out in 2018, 2019, we have a lower utilization rate. It's just a little bit above 80%. But right now, we do observe that our long-term structural demand at 28-nanometer was to be well supported by multiple specialty technologies such as CMOS image sensor for multi-camera trend and better non-volatile memory application and other specialty technologies. To be in 1 word, actually, the enrichment in the silicon content in many end devices that develop in recent years helped to support this demand.

嗯，好問題。正如您在 2018 年、2019 年指出的那樣，我們的利用率較低。略高於 80%。但目前，我們確實觀察到，我們在 28 奈米的長期結構性需求將得到多種專業技術的良好支持，例如多攝影機趨勢的 CMOS 影像感測器、更好的非揮發性記憶體應用和其他專業技術。總而言之，其實近年來開發的許多終端設備中矽含量的豐富有助於支持這種需求。

Okay, Bruce? Thank you.

好嗎，布魯斯？謝謝。

Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一個提問的是摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

Charlie, are you on the line?

查理，你在電話裡嗎？

Yes, yes. Hello? Can you hear me okay?

是的，是的。你好？你聽得到我說話嗎？

We can hear you now. Please go ahead.

我們現在能聽到你的聲音了。請繼續。

Okay. Congratulations for a good results. So to management, my first question is about the macro economy risk, right? For example, inflationary pressure on the consumer tech demand. And also, work from home demand has been strong for 2 years. Will the management consider that could fade away and impact your PC, TV or the semis.

好的。恭喜你取得好成績。那麼對管理階層來說，我的第一個問題是關於宏觀經濟風險，對嗎？例如，通膨壓力對消費者技術需求的影響。此外，在家工作的需求兩年來一直很強勁。管理階層是否會考慮到這可能會逐漸消失並影響您的個人電腦、電視或半導體？

And also lastly, the crypto mining demand has been very volatile, right? And now it seems like crypto price also falls down. So we'd like to know whether you consider those kind of macro risks into your full year revenue growth forecast?

最後，加密挖掘的需求一直都非常不穩定，對嗎？現在看起來加密貨幣的價格也下跌了。所以我們想知道您是否將這些宏觀風險納入全年營收成長預測？

Okay. So Charlie's first question is related to the macro outlook, looking at concerns of inflation, work from home fading, consumer demand and also crypto volatility. What impact could this have on end demand for PC, TV and semiconductors? And have we considered this into our outlook? Maybe C.C. can address this.

好的。因此，查理的第一個問題與宏觀前景有關，關注通膨問題、在家工作的減少、消費者需求以及加密貨幣的波動。這會對個人電腦、電視和半導體的最終需求產生什麼影響？我們是否已將這一點考慮進我們的展望中？也許是 C.C.可以解決這個問題。

Yes. Well Charlie, we expect the supply chain to maintain a higher level of inventory for a longer period of time given the industry's continued need to ensure the supply security. But then we also observed the end market momentum in certain segment may slow down or adjust in terms of units. But the increasing silicon content in many end devices is a more important factor in supporting the strong semiconductor demand and will continue.

是的。好吧，查理，鑑於該行業持續需要確保供應安全，我們預計供應鏈將在更長時間內維持更高的庫存水準。但我們也觀察到，某些領域的終端市場動能可能會放緩或進行調整。但許多終端設備中矽含量的增加是支撐強勁半導體需求的更重要的因素，而且這種趨勢還會持續。

So even if there's a correction were to occur, we believe it could be less volatile for TSMC due to our technology leadership position, and the structural megatrend demand of 5G-related and HPC application, the substantial increase in silicon content, that will make sure we expect our capacity to remain very tight throughout 2022. You also mentioned about the crypto currency. Yes, we have factored that one in.

因此，即使出現調整，我們相信台積電的波動性可能會較小，因為我們的技術領先地位，以及 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的結構性大趨勢需求，以及矽含量的大幅增加，這將確保我們預計我們的產能在 2022 年全年都將保持非常緊張。是的，我們已經考慮到這一點了。

Okay. Great. Charlie, do you have a second question?

好的。偉大的。查理，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, if I may. So a second question is maybe to Wendell that our first quarter revenue see a great sequential growth, right?

是的，如果可以的話。所以第二個問題可能是問溫德爾的，我們的第一季營收是否會持續大幅成長，對嗎？

So may I know that -- those price hike benefit mostly reflected in 1Q? Or there will be still some price hike benefits in the second quarter? And also, can you please repeat the depreciation growth guidance year-on-year for 2022?

那我可以知道這些價格上漲的好處主要體現在第一季嗎？或者說第二季還會有一些漲價紅利？另外，您能否重複 2022 年年比折舊成長指引？

Okay. Charlie, let me summarize your second question. So this question is directed to Wendell. In terms of the first quarter revenue sequential growth, how much of the -- a price hike is reflected in this? And will a price hike be reflected in subsequent quarters?

好的。查理，讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。所以這個問題是針對溫德爾的。就第一季營收季增而言，價格上漲在多大程度上反映了這一點？價格上漲是否會在隨後的幾季體現出來？

Charlie, we're not able to break down those numbers for you. But we continue to work closely with our customers, meet their demand and also sell our value. That's what we are focusing on.

查理，我們無法為您分解這些數字。但我們繼續與客戶密切合作，滿足他們的需求並推銷我們的價值。這就是我們關注的重點。

Yes. And the depreciation guidance, Charlie, this year is low to mid-teens year-on-year increase. Thank you.

是的。查理，今年的折舊預期是年增率低至百分之十幾。謝謝。

Next one to ask questions, Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

下一個提問的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

First of all, could you give us an update on how we think about CapEx going into next couple of years as well, given the growth expectation is also now higher in the 15% to 20% range? Do we expect CapEx to peak out this year? Or should it continue to grow into next year? And maybe Wendell, could you also talk a little bit about how we think about capital intensity? When do we expect that to peak? And what is more like the steady-state as we get to the end of this particular growth period 2020, 2025? That's my first question.

首先，鑑於目前的成長預期也較高，在 15% 至 20% 的範圍內，您能否向我們介紹一下我們對未來幾年資本支出的看法？我們預計資本支出將在今年達到高峰嗎？或者說明年還會繼續成長嗎？也許溫德爾，您能否談談我們對資本密集度的看法？我們預計什麼時候會達到高峰？當我們到達 2020 年或 2025 年這一特定增長期的末期時，什麼狀態更接近穩定狀態？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, Gokul, let me summarize -- allow me to summarize your first question. Gokul was asking about our CapEx outlook. He notes that we -- our growth is now higher at 15% to 20% CAGR for the next several years. So his question is, how should he think about the CapEx. Is 2022 the peak? How does CapEx look for the next few years, and also in terms of the long-term capital intensity?

好的，Gokul，讓我總結一下 - 請允許我總結一下你的第一個問題。 Gokul 詢問了我們的資本支出前景。他指出，未來幾年我們的成長率將達到 15% 至 20% 的複合年增長率。所以他的問題是，他應該如何考慮資本支出。 2022年是高峰嗎？未來幾年的資本支出狀況如何？

Okay. Gokul, this is Wendell. Regarding CapEx number. This year, we guided $40 billion to $44 billion. Now remember that we spent CapEx in the given year for the growth prospect in the next several years. So whenever there is -- we think the growth outlook is good, we will continue our disciplined investment going forward. We're not able to give a guidance on CapEx beyond 2022 today.

好的。戈庫爾，這是溫德爾。關於資本支出數字。今年，我們的預期投資規模為400億至440億美元。現在請記住，我們在給定年份花費的資本支出是為了未來幾年的成長前景。因此，只要我們認為成長前景良好，我們就會繼續進行嚴格的投資。我們今天無法提供 2022 年以後資本支出的指引。

And also the capital intensity. Whenever we enter into a higher period of growth, like today, the capital intensity will be high and which is appropriate. Now if the growth were to slow down, the capital intensity will decline accordingly. From what we can see at this moment, longer term, maybe mid-30s remains appropriate level.

還有資本密集度。每當我們進入更高的成長時期，就像今天這樣，資本密集度就會很高，這是適當的。現在，如果成長放緩，資本密集度也會隨之下降。從我們目前看到的情況來看，從長遠來看，35% 左右可能仍是合適的水平。

Okay. Thank you. Does that answer your first question, Gokul? Hello, Gokul? Are you on mute?

好的。謝謝。這回答了你的第一個問題嗎，Gokul？你好，Gokul？您靜音了嗎？

Yes. Sorry. My second question is about one of your IDM customer, which has been a top 10 customer for TSMC, but now they are also re-entering the foundry market aggressively and wanting to compete head to head with TSMC.

是的。對不起。我的第二個問題是關於你們的一個IDM客戶，他們一直是台積電的前十大客戶之一，但現在他們也積極重返代工市場，想要與台積電正面競爭。

How does TSMC navigate this situation, given the market is also expecting this customer to be a bigger revenue contributor for TSMC in the HPC area over the next couple of years? Just wanted to understand how management thinks about this business relationship, given that for some of the other IDM customers who are foundry competitors, TSMC doesn't do much business with them.

鑑於市場預計該客戶將在未來幾年成為台積電在 HPC 領域更大的收入貢獻者，台積電將如何應對這種情況？只是想了解管理階層如何看待這種業務關係，因為對於一些作為代工競爭對手的其他 IDM 客戶來說，台積電與他們並沒有太多業務往來。

Okay. Gokul, let me summarize your second question. Gokul's second question is in terms of a specific IDM customer of TSMC, but this customer is also entering foundry and also -- so his question is how do we navigate the relationship given that in the past, we do not really work with IDMs who compete with us?

好的。 Gokul，讓我總結一下你的第二個問題。 Gokul 的第二個問題是關於台積電的一個特定 IDM 客戶，但這個客戶也正在進入代工領域——所以他的問題是，鑑於過去我們並沒有真正與與我們競爭的 IDM 合作，我們該如何處理這種關係？

Okay. Gokul, This is C.C. Wei. Let me emphasize that we always operate in a good faith and support all our customer opening and fairly. And the IDM customer has been the same. That's also that TSMC's good customer. We also understand that the IDM customer has their own plans for future insourcing, and we already have taken this into our capacity planning consideration. Did I answer your question?

好的。 Gokul，我是 C.C.韋。我要強調的是，我們始終以誠信經營，並以開放和公平的方式支持所有客戶。而IDM客戶也一直如此。這也是台積電的好客戶。我們也了解到IDM客戶對於未來的內部採購有自己的計劃，並且我們已經將此納入了產能規劃考量。我回答你的問題了嗎？

Is there any way for you to protect your longer-term growth when you deal with this kind of a customer? Just wanted to understand how it differs from your traditional fabless customers where I think that insourcing question is not really on the table?

當你與這樣的客戶打交道時，有辦法保護你的長期成長嗎？只是想了解它與傳統的無晶圓廠客戶有何不同，我認為內部採購問題實際上並不存在？

Well, as I said, we have already taken into -- this into our capacity planning consideration. And our capacity planning is based on the long-term market demand profile, underpinned by the industry megatrend of 5G and HPC and the semiconductor content enrichment in many end devices. And we do not depend on any one single customer or product. Okay?

嗯，正如我所說的，我們已經將這一點納入了我們的容量規劃考量。我們的產能規劃基於長期市場需求狀況，以 5G 和 HPC 的產業大趨勢以及許多終端設備的半導體內容豐富為基礎。我們並不依賴任何單一的客戶或產品。好的？

Okay, Gokul? Yes. Thank you, Gokul.

好的，Gokul？是的。謝謝你，Gokul。

Next one to ask questions Roland Shu from Citigroup.

下一位提問的是花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

Congrats for your very good results and good outlook. First question of me is you also mentioned you always build your capacity according to customers' long-term demand profile. But in the past, from time to time, you overbuilt capacity for some nodes due to customers' forecast always change. So how confident you are this time to [comfortably] spend a huge CapEx from 2021? And why do you think customers' forecast this time are more real than any time before? And also, what's your take of this semiconductor cycle? Will this cycle change risk your CapEx spending plan going forward?

恭喜你所取得的優異成績和良好的前景。我的第一個問題是，您也提到，您始終根據客戶的長期需求狀況來建立產能。但是在過去，由於客戶的預測總是會發生變化，您有時會過度建立某些節點的容量。那麼，您這次有多大信心從 2021 年開始 [輕鬆地] 支出巨額資本支出？為什麼您認為客戶這次的預測比以前任何時候都更真實？另外，您對這個半導體週期有何看法？這種週期變化是否會對您未來的資本支出計畫帶來風險？

Okay, Roland. So Roland's first question is really C.C. said that we build our capacity according to the long-term demand profile. His question is, though customers' forecasts can change. So how confident can we be? And how do we see this current cycle playing out? Is that correct, Roland?

好的，羅蘭。所以羅蘭的第一個問題其實是 C.C.表示我們將根據長期需求狀況來建立產能。他的問題是，儘管客戶的預測可能會改變。那我們能有多大信心呢？我們如何看待目前這個週期的展開？是這樣的嗎，羅蘭？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Let me answer this question. For the difference, actually, this time, we see a structural increase in long-term market demand due to the multiyear industry megatrend of 5G, HPC and digitalization as well as some of the short-term imbalance that interruption of the supply chain brought about COVID-19 and geopolitical tension.

好的。讓我來回答這個問題。差異在於，實際上，這一次，我們看到長期市場需求的結構性增長，這得益於 5G、HPC 和數位化的多年行業大趨勢，以及 COVID-19 和地緣政治緊張局勢導致的供應鏈中斷帶來的一些短期不平衡。

Let me say that how confident we are, very confident because, as I said, long-term structural increase in the content and in the unit. This time, we add the content increase as one of the important factor which we never reported before, and it was driven that semiconductor industry to -- at a higher utilization rate because we have a very good technology leadership.

我要說的是，我們非常有信心，因為正如我所說，內容和單位的長期結構性成長。這次，我們添加了內容增加作為我們以前從未報告過的重要因素之一，這推動了半導體行業的利用率提高，因為我們擁有非常好的技術領先地位。

Yes, I think I have also a question, part of the question is for the cycle. What's your take of the semiconductor cycle now?

是的，我想我也有一個問題，部分問題是關於循環的。您現在對半導體週期有什麼看法？

Well, we cannot predict the cycle, right? But even if there is a cycle coming, we do believe that TSMC with its technology leadership and excellent manufacturing and the customers' trust will be a better position in the upturn or downturn cycle.

嗯，我們無法預測週期，對嗎？但即使週期來臨，我們仍然相信，憑藉其技術領導、卓越的製造能力和客戶的信任，台積電將在上升或下降週期中處於更有利的位置。

Okay. Understood. Now for my second question. With your faster revenue growth and better margin going forward. For TSMC, apparently needs capable and experienced management and employees for continuous growth going forward.

好的。明白了。現在我要問第二個問題。未來您的收入將以更快的速度成長，利潤也會更高。對於台積電來說，顯然需要有能力且經驗豐富的管理階層和員工才能繼續成長。

However, some of your senior management are approaching legitimately retired age. So how are you going to retain the experience and the valuable management going forward? And also, by the way, what's the progress of your talent recruiting for your R&D and the manufacturing fab worldwide?

然而，你們的一些高階主管已接近合法退休年齡。那麼，您今後將如何保留這些經驗和寶貴的管理經驗呢？順便問一下，你們在全球的研發和製造工廠的人才招募進度如何？

Okay. So Roland's second question is that -- his question really is around our talent. Part of it is our senior management. How do we keep our experienced and senior executives? And also as we expand our global manufacturing footprint, what is the progress of our talent recruitment of engineers and R&D?

好的。所以羅蘭的第二個問題是──他的問題其實是有關我們的人才。其中一部分是我們的高階管理人員。我們如何留住經驗豐富的高階主管？隨著我們全球製造足跡的擴大，我們的工程師和研發人才招募進度如何？

Roland, this is Mark. You're right. Our capable executives are our treasurers and they will bring the company forward. And as long as they are energetic, and they will want to contribute for this company, there's no forced retirement. For those top-notch executives, we will work with them if they want to stay. Yes.

羅蘭，這是馬克。你說得對。我們有能力的高階主管是我們的財務主管，他們將推動公司向前發展。只要他們精力充沛，願意為公司做貢獻，就不會被迫退休。對於那些頂尖的高階主管，如果他們想留下來，我們就會與他們合作。是的。

And then also, how about our talent recruitment globally as we expand.

而且，隨著我們業務的擴張，我們在全球範圍內的人才招募情況如何？

Oh, yes. Talent recruitment, it is currently our focus as the company deal with this fast-paced expansion, and we recruit particularly emphasized on the overseas recruiting. And as you can see, our expansion into U.S. manufacturing and also in Japan manufacturing and -- are the vehicle that we will be able to reach for more global talents through those operation, and may extend to local R&D. So that is a part of our strategy.

哦是的。人才招聘，是我們目前的重點，因為公司正在應對快速的擴張，我們特別注重海外招聘。正如您所看到的，我們向美國製造業和日本製造業的擴張是我們透過這些業務接觸更多全球人才的工具，並可能擴展到本地研發。這是我們戰略的一部分。

Okay. Thank you, Roland.

好的。謝謝你，羅蘭。

Next one, we have Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

下一位是來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

My first question is for Wendell. Wendell, can you share with us how much prepayments and government subsidies TSMC received in 2020? And how we should think about prepayments and subsidies in 2022? And also, how do you account for this, particularly the subsidies, how do you account for this in the P&L going forward?

我的第一個問題是針對溫德爾的。溫德爾，您能否與我們分享台積電在2020年收到了多少預付款和政府補助？我們該如何看待2022年的預付款和補貼？而且，您如何解釋這一點，特別是補貼，您如何在未來的損益表中解釋這一點？

Okay.

好的。

Okay. Oh, sorry...

好的。噢，對不起…

Yes, go ahead.

好的，請說。

Sorry. Just to summarize Brett's question. So first question, he wants to know how much prepayments and government subsidies that we received in 2021. How many -- how much do we expect in 2022? And how do we account for these in our financial statements?

對不起。只是總結一下布雷特的問題。所以第一個問題，他想知道我們在 2021 年收到了多少預付款和政府補貼。我們該如何在財務報表中反映這些情況？

Okay, Brett. Let me talk about the prepayment first. At the end of last year, we have received a total of USD 6.7 billion in prepayment, and you can -- those are included in the financial statement as temporary receipts from the customers. So going forward, you can look at our quarterly financial statement and find that numbers.

好的，布雷特。先說一下預付款的事情。截至去年年底，我們共收到 67 億美元的預付款，這些款項作為來自客戶的臨時收款計入財務報表中。因此，展望未來，您可以查看我們的季度財務報表並找到這些數字。

As to subsidies, different country have different incentives and they come in different forms. So they are -- some of them are related to asset reduction, some of them offset expenses and some of them tax reductions. And we follow that -- we use different accounting treatment to record that in the financial statements.

至於補貼，不同國家有不同的獎勵措施，且形式各異。所以，其中一些與資產減少有關，有些與抵銷費用有關，有些與減稅有關。我們遵循這一點——我們使用不同的會計處理方法來在財務報表中記錄這一點。

Okay, Wendell. I guess the prepayments this year will be higher than '21? Is that a fair statement?

好的，溫德爾。我猜今年的預付款會比 21 年更高？這是一個公正的說法嗎？

Well, I cannot share with you the details, but we expect that there are more.

嗯，我無法與你們分享細節，但我們預計會有更多。

Okay. And my second question, looking at the smartphone segment of your business, it grew 8% in 2021, which is well below some of your big customers. Can you talk about silicon content drivers? 5G has been a really big silicon content driver in 2021, and it will continue to -- in 2022. So I'm just wondering, can you maybe just share with us your perspective on happened in 2021 in smartphones? Why only 8% growth? And how should we think about smartphones and the positive silicon content drivers from 5G this year?

好的。我的第二個問題是，看看貴公司業務的智慧型手機部分，2021 年成長了 8%，遠低於貴公司的一些大客戶。您能談談矽含量驅動因素嗎？ 5G 是 2021 年矽片內容的重要驅動力，並將在 2022 年繼續保持這一勢頭。 所以我想知道，您能否與我們分享一下您對 2021 年智慧型手機發展的看法？為何只有8%的成長？那我們該如何看待今年的智慧型手機和5G帶來的正向矽含量驅動因素呢？

Okay. So Brett's question is focused on the smartphone. He notes that our smartphone platform grew 8% in NT dollar terms year-on-year in 2021. So his question, I guess, Brett, if I'm hearing you correctly, your question is sort of what is driving the slower growth in the smartphone, despite the higher silicon content?

好的。布雷特的問題集中在智慧型手機。他指出，我們的智慧型手機平台在 2021 年以新台幣計算年增了 8%。

Well, let me answer the question. I mean that's -- in terms of NT dollars, of course, it's only 8%, but in terms of the U.S. dollar, it's much higher. All right?

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。我的意思是——以新台幣計算，當然只有 8%，但以美元計算，就高得多。好的？

And then the silicon content is continue to increase every year. So we expect that will be one of the major contributor to TSMC's growth continuously.

而矽含量每年都在增加。因此我們預計這將成為台積電持續成長的主要貢獻者之一。

Yes, I think -- let me add. The global smartphone unit growth last year is about 6%. So some of the -- you see some of the company smartphone revenue may grow, it could be due to the pricing. But we -- our pricing strategy, as you understand, is strategic, not optimistic. So we'll grow with the smartphone units in our business.

是的，我認為——讓我補充一下。去年全球智慧型手機銷量成長約6%。因此，您會看到該公司的部分智慧型手機收入可能會成長，這可能是由於定價的原因。但如您所知，我們的定價策略是策略性的，而不是樂觀的。因此，我們的業務將隨著智慧型手機業務一起成長。

Okay. Thank you, Brett.

好的。謝謝你，布雷特。

Next one is Charles Shi from Needham & Company.

下一位是來自 Needham & Company 的 Charles Shi。

Just a very quick clarification. C.C., I think you mentioned about the N3 number of tape-outs in the first year, you expect that to exceed the number of N5 tape-outs in the first year. Since now you have both N3 and N3E, is that a comment on the original N3 alone? Or N3E family, which includes both N3 and N3E?

我只是想快速澄清一下。 C.C.，我記得您提到過第一年的 N3 流片數量，您預計該數量將超過第一年的 N5 流片數量。既然現在您同時擁有 N3 和 N3E，這是否僅對原始 N3 進行評論？或 N3E 系列，其中包括 N3 和 N3E？

Okay. So Charles' first question is that he wants to clarify in terms of tape-outs. When we say N3 tape-outs are greater than N5 in its first year. Is this N3E alone or N3 plus N3E?

好的。因此，查爾斯的第一個問題是，他想從流片方面進行澄清。當我們說 N3 在第一年的流片量就大於 N5 時。這是單獨的 N3E 還是 N3 加 N3E？

Well, it's N3 for right now because N3E we are -- technology will be ready soon, and the mass production will be 1 year later. So now most of that tape-out, all of them, are N3.

嗯，目前是 N3，因為 N3E 技術很快就會準備就緒，而大規模生產將在 1 年後。所以現在大多數的流片都是 N3 的。

So now I want to ask my question on potentially the gross margin profile for the N3. I know it's going to start to meaningfully contribute to the revenue next year. You've said in the past that the newest process node will take about 7 to 8 quarters to reach the corporate average. But now this time, I think one difference about N3 is that you have both smartphone and HPC being supported at the right -- at the beginning of the launch of the N3 node.

所以現在我想問一下有關 N3 的毛利率狀況。我知道它明年就會開始對收入做出有意義的貢獻。您過去曾經說過，最新的工藝節點大約需要 7 到 8 個季度才能達到企業平均值。但現在這次，我認為 N3 的一個不同之處在於，在 N3 節點發布之初，我們同時支援智慧型手機和 HPC。

So my guess is that the revenue for smartphone and HPC ramp could really go parallel instead of one after another and which could really help your volume, your revenue. And could you comment on whether that 7 to 8 quarter of the margin dilution of the newest process node, maybe starting from N3, it will become shorter. That's my question.

因此，我的猜測是，智慧型手機和 HPC 的收入成長可能會同步進行，而不是一個接一個，這可能會真正有助於您的銷售和收入。您能否評論一下最新工藝節點的利潤率稀釋的 7 到 8 個季度，也許從 N3 開始，時間會變短嗎？這就是我的問題。

Thank you, Charles. Please allow me to summarize your second question.

謝謝你，查爾斯。請容許我總結一下您的第二個問題。

So Charles' second question is looking at the N3 profitability and gross margin. He observes in the past, and you know typically it takes 7 to 8 quarters to reach the corporate average, but at N3E, we have both -- developed both smartphone and HPC platform. So these ramp in parallel, could N3E actually reach the corporate average in a shorter duration of time?

所以查爾斯的第二個問題是研究 N3 的獲利能力和毛利率。他觀察過去，通常需要 7 到 8 個季度才能達到企業平均水平，但在 N3E，我們同時開發了智慧型手機和 HPC 平台。那麼，這些同時增加，N3E 是否真的可以在更短的時間內達到企業平均？

Okay. Charles, this is Wendell. It is too early to say when N3 can reach the corporate average gross margin at this stage as the volume production has not started yet. However, the initial outlook for every new node always looks challenging, and the increasing process complexity of leading nodes, such N3, brings even greater challenges. We will continue to work on selling our value and cost improvement to ensure that we earn the right profitability and returns.

好的。查爾斯，這是溫德爾。由於N3還未開始量產，現階段判斷N3何時能達到企業平均毛利率還為時過早。然而，每個新節點的初始前景總是充滿挑戰，而領先節點（如N3）的製程複雜性不斷增加帶來了更大的挑戰。我們將繼續致力於銷售我們的價值和成本改進，以確保我們獲得正確的獲利能力和回報。

Okay, Charles? Does that answer your second question?

好的，查爾斯？這回答了你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes, indeed.

是的，確實如此。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Next one to ask question is Mehdi Hosseini from SFG.

下一個提問的是 SFG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. The first one actually is a follow-up on the gross margin. For the March quarter, you're guiding to 53% to 55%, but your longer-term gross margin is around 53%.

是的。第一個實際上是對毛利率的追蹤。對於 3 月季度，您預計毛利率為 53% 至 55%，但長期毛利率約為 53%。

So does that mean that as we look beyond the Q1, there is a downward trend in gross margin? And also, how should we think about the long-term operating margin? And I have a follow-up.

那麼這是否意味著，展望第一季之後，毛利率呈現下降趨勢？另外，我們該如何考慮長期營業利益率？我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. So Mehdi's first question is around gross margin. He notes our first quarter gross margin guidance is 53% to 55%. But Mehdi, let me clarify, our long-term gross margin guidance is 53% and higher gross margin. But nonetheless, Mehdi is asking, therefore, are we implying saying the margin outlook for the rest of the year will come down or decline?

好的。因此，Mehdi 的第一個問題是關於毛利率的。他指出，我們第一季的毛利率預期是53%至55%。但 Mehdi，讓我澄清一下，我們的長期毛利率指引值為 53% 及更高的毛利率。但儘管如此，Mehdi 還是想問，我們是否暗示今年剩餘時間的利潤前景將會下降或下滑？

Okay. Mehdi, this is Wendell. We're not prepared to talk about gross margin outlook for the subsequent quarters of the year. But please be reminded that there are 6 factors affecting our profitability. Those factors include the ramp and development of our advanced technology, price, cost, mix, utilization and foreign exchange rate. The foreign exchange rate is something that we cannot control and hard to predict. So you -- these -- summarizing all those factors together, we're saying that long term, we expect our gross margin to be 53% and higher. As to our operating margin, we're not giving out the operating margin guidance as of now.

好的。梅迪，這是溫德爾。我們還沒有準備好談論今年接下來幾季的毛利率前景。但請記住，有 6 個因素影響我們的獲利能力。這些因素包括我們先進技術的提升和發展、價格、成本、產品組合、利用率和外匯匯率。外匯匯率是我們無法控制、難以預測的。所以，把所有這些因素總結在一起，我們說，從長遠來看，我們預計我們的毛利率將達到 53％甚至更高。至於我們的營業利益率，目前我們還沒有給出營業利潤率指引。

Okay. And a quick follow-up. Can you also help us understand how the mix of revenue by process technology like 7, 5 and 3 will change in '22 versus '21?

好的。並快速跟進。您能否幫助我們了解 7、5 和 3 等製程技術的收入結構在 22 年與 21 年相比將如何變化？

Okay. Mehdi's second question is asking revenue contribution by node. He is asking that N7 and N5 and N3, how -- what contribution will that be in 2022? And how is that different versus 2021?

好的。 Mehdi 的第二個問題是詢問節點的收入貢獻。他詢問 N7、N5 和 N3 在 2022 年的貢獻會是多少？這與 2021 年相比有何不同？

Okay. Mehdi, we're not prepared to give the breakdown for the revenue contribution by node today. But the N5 will continue to ramp, so we expect the revenue contribution to continue to rise throughout the year.

好的。梅赫迪，我們今天還沒準備好給出各節點收入貢獻的明細。但 N5 將繼續成長，因此我們預計全年收入貢獻將繼續上升。

Yes. And I think we have said before, Mehdi, that N3 will begin the volume production in second half '22, and you will start to see the revenue contribution in 2023.

是的。梅迪，我想我們之前就說過，N3 將在 2022 年下半年開始量產，2023 年你就會開始看到收入貢獻。

Okay. Great. Congratulation on great execution.

好的。偉大的。恭喜您出色的表現。

Okay. Thank you, Mehdi.

好的。謝謝你，梅迪。

The next one to ask question is Sunny Lin from UBS.

下一個提問的是瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

So my first question is on N3. So you mentioned that the number of tape-outs for N3 is higher than N5 in the first year. So now that we are getting pretty close to the mass production, I want to get your sense on the overall capacity outlook for N3 compared with N5.

我的第一個問題是關於 N3 的。所以您提到第一年 N3 的流片數量高於 N5。現在我們已經非常接近大規模生產了，我想了解您對 N3 與 N5 相比的整體產能前景的看法。

And also, if we could -- if you could give us any sense of N3 revenue contribution in the first year of mass production?

另外，如果您可以的話—您能告訴我們 N3 在量產第一年的收入貢獻嗎？

Okay, Sunny. So let me -- please allow me to summarize your question. Her first question is on N3. Will N3 have a higher capacity than -- or scale than N5?

好的，Sunny。所以請容許我總結一下您的問題。她的第一個問題是關於 N3 的。 N3 的容量或規模是否會比 N5 更高？

Well, this is C.C. Wei. I would like to say, I'm not able to comment on the specific capacity by node. But with a strong level of customer interest and engagement, N3 will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC just like our N5 and N7.

嗯，這是 C.C。韋。我想說的是，我無法評論節點的具體容量。但由於客戶的濃厚興趣和參​​與度，N3 將像我們的 N5 和 N7 一樣，成為台積電的另一個大型且持久的節點。

And then Sunny is also asking about the revenue contribution of N3.

然後 Sunny 也詢問了 N3 的收入貢獻。

It's still too early to talk about.

現在談論還為時過早。

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

No problem. So a follow-up will be that if we think about the N5 ramp-up, I think the second wave customer adoption seems to only occur in 2022, which is about 2 years after mass production. Looking at N3, with higher contribution and faster adoption of HPC, could you help us think about what the ramp-up could be like? Would the scale pick up a bit faster because of HPC?

沒問題。因此，後續問題是，如果我們考慮 N5 的成長，我認為第二波客戶採用似乎只會發生在 2022 年，也就是量產後大約 2 年。看看 N3，其貢獻更高且 HPC 的採用速度更快，您能否幫助我們思考一下其成長前景如何？由於 HPC，規模是否會成長得更快一些？

Okay. Sunny's second question is also on N3. And she notes -- her question is that in N5, the second wave of adoption occurred 2 years after the initial production, but with N3 and the higher and greater interest from HPC customers, would N3 see a faster ramp-up?

好的。 Sunny的第二個問題也是關於N3的。她指出——她的問題是，在 N5 中，第二波採用發生在首次生產的 2 年後，但隨著 N3 以及 HPC 客戶越來越大的興趣，N3 是否會看到更快的成長？

Well, all I can say right now is our customers engaged with N3, N3E are quite more than what we observed in the N5. However, how to quantify that ramp up, it's too early to say. The engagement is very strong. All I can say that.

嗯，我現在可以說的是，參與 N3、N3E 的客戶比我們在 N5 中觀察到的要多得多。然而，如何量化這種成長，現在說還為時過早。參與度非常高。我只能說這些。

Sure. Maybe a very quick follow-up in the equipment supply. Are you seeing any potential bottleneck for you to ramp up a larger capacity for N3 the next few years, especially considering potential disruptions for ASML's EUV tools?

當然。也許是設備供應方面的非常快速的跟進。您是否認為未來幾年 N3 產能提升會遇到任何潛在瓶頸，尤其是考慮到 ASML 的 EUV 工具可能出現的中斷？

Okay. So last question from Sunny is that, in terms of our capacity expansion, are we seeing any bottlenecks or potential bottlenecks in our capacity plans, particularly in terms of ASML's EUV tools?

好的。 Sunny 的最後一個問題是，就我們的產能擴張而言，我們的產能計畫是否存在任何瓶頸或潛在瓶頸，特別是在 ASML 的 EUV 工具方面？

Sunny, this is a very good question. All I can say right now is that 2022, we are okay. And now we are working on 2023 so that we can ramp up capacity to meet customers' demand.

Sunny，這是一個非常好的問題。我現在只能說，2022 年我們會沒事的。目前，我們正在致力於 2023 年，以便能夠提高產能，並滿足客戶的需求。

Thank you, Sunny.

謝謝你，Sunny。

Next one, we have Sebastian Hou from Neuberger Berman.

下一位是來自 Neuberger Berman 的 Sebastian Hou。

Hello. Can you hear me?

你好。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

是的，我們可以。

Hello. Yes. I only have one. This is more of a mathematic question. So if I look past on TSMC, your -- how long did you translate your CapEx to your revenue? It looks around like 1.7x, which means that you double your CapEx in 3 years. You'll probably double your revenue in 5 years -- or triple -- or more similar to that kind of equation.

你好。是的。我只有一個。這更像是數學問題。因此，如果我回顧台積電，您花了多長時間將您的資本支出轉化為收入？它看起來像 1.7 倍，這意味著你的資本支出在 3 年內翻倍。你的收入很可能在五年內翻一番，或三倍，或更長時間，類似於這樣的等式。

So I'm curious about, this time around, whether that kind of relationship or translation time you'll hold. And then if I look at your CapEx numbers in 2018, is where -- 2019 is where you start to move your CapEx aggressively. And in 3 years, you triple CapEx. In 4 years, you quadruple your CapEx.

所以我很好奇，這一次，您是否會保持這樣的關係或翻譯時間。然後，如果我查看您 2018 年的資本支出數字，您會發現 2019 年您開始積極增加資本支出。三年內，您的資本支出將增加三倍。四年內，你的資本支出增加了四倍。

So if that equation continue to hold, then does that mean that you're -- by 2023 or '24 your revenue will be exceeded USD 100 billion? And by 2025, your revenue will be around USD 130 billion to USD 140 billion, which means that your long term over the next 3, 4 years' revenue CAGR, not just 15% to 20%, but actually 25% to 30%.

那麼，如果這個等式繼續成立，那麼是否意味著到 2023 年或 2024 年，您的收入將超過 1000 億美元？到 2025 年，您的收入將在 1300 億美元到 1400 億美元左右，這意味著未來 3、4 年的長期收入複合年增長率不僅僅是 15% 到 20%，而是 25% 到 30%。

Okay, Sebastian. His question really is about the relationship between CapEx and revenue. He's asking on his calculations, of course, how long does it take CapEx to translate into revenue? He observed in the past that the CapEx doubling in 3 years led to revenue doubling in about 5 years. So now he wants to apply it to this time to say, well, if CapEx has tripled from 2018, then can he expect TSMC revenue to be $100 billion. Sebastian, you said in 2024?

好的，塞巴斯蒂安。他的問題其實是關於資本支出和收入之間的關係。當然，他在計算時詢問，資本支出需要多長時間才能轉化為收入？他過去觀察到，3年內資本支出翻倍會帶動5年內收入翻倍。所以現在他想把它應用到這個時候，如果資本支出比 2018 年增加了兩倍，那麼他可以預期台積電的收入達到 1000 億美元嗎。賽巴斯蒂安，你說的是 2024 年嗎？

2023 to 2024.

2023 年至 2024 年。

Oh, 2023 to 2024.

哦，2023 年至 2024 年。

Yes, around this level. And -- yes...

是的，大概是這個水平。而且——是的……

so $100 billion level in kind of 2024, $130 billion to $140 billion in 2025.

因此到 2024 年將達到 1,000 億美元的水平，到 2025 年將達到 1,300 億至 1,400 億美元。

Okay. Sebastian, this is Wendell. Well, frankly, speaking, we didn't do that kind of math ourselves. But what our guidance is, as C.C. mentioned earlier today, it's 15% to 20% CAGR in the next several years.

好的。賽巴斯蒂安，這是溫德爾。嗯，坦白說，我們自己並沒有做過這樣的計算。但我們的指導是，正如 C.C.今天前面提到過，未來幾年的複合年增長率為 15% 到 20%。

So with CAGR, it doesn't mean that every year will grow that kind of a numbers. And also, it's next several years is a longer-term numbers. So I would not try to use the mathematics that you just used. It's -- things are not that simple, I think.

因此，複合年增長率並不意味著每年都會成長那麼多。而且，未來幾年是一個長期數字。所以我不會嘗試使用你剛才使用的數學。我認為——事情並沒有那麼簡單。

Yes. Definitely not that simple. But maybe let me simplify the question a bit or put another way is that the CapEx to revenue translation time, do you see any change on that now versus 5 or 10 years ago? If it is slower or faster or the same kind of the pace?

是的。絕對沒有那麼簡單。但也許讓我稍微簡化一下這個問題，或者換句話說，就是資本支出到收入的轉換時間，與五年前或十年前相比，你認為現在有什麼改變嗎？是更慢還是更快還是同樣的速度？

Yes. So I think Sebastian is asking, so to try to simplify it in terms of CapEx to revenue. Are we seeing it at the same pace as in the past? Is it getting longer? Is it getting shorter? I think Chairman can address this.

是的。所以我認為塞巴斯蒂安正在要求嘗試從資本支出到收入的角度來簡化這一點。我們是否看到它以與過去相同的速度發展？是不是變得更長了？是不是變短了？我認為主席可以解決這個問題。

Let me answer this. I think because of the equipment lead time is much longer and also the technology complexity is longer. So that might increase a little bit in terms of the lead time leading to revenue.

讓我來回答這個問題。我認為這是因為設備交付週期更長且技術複雜性也更高。因此，從收入的角度來看，這可能會稍微增加交付週期。

Okay. Thank you, Sebastian.

好的。謝謝你，賽巴斯蒂安。

Next one, we have Laura Chen from KGI.

下一位是來自 KGI 的 Laura Chen。

I have a questions on your overseas expansion. Just wondering, would TSMC consider joint venture in Europe, like what you announced in Japan? And what's your current preference? Do you prefer 100% owned? Or you would be more open for potential joint venture, like what TSMC did a long time ago in Wafertech and Singapore with NXP before? That's my first questions.

我對您的海外擴張有一些疑問。我只是想知道，台積電是否會考慮在歐洲建立合資企業，就像你們在日本宣布的那樣？您現在的喜好是什麼？您喜歡 100% 所有權嗎？或者您對潛在的合資企業更加開放，就像台積電很久以前在 Wafertech 和新加坡與恩智浦合作那樣？這是我的第一個疑問。

Okay. So Laura, let me summarize your first question. It is about our overseas fabs, and she's wondering will we consider joint venture as a future model going forward, whether it's in Europe or elsewhere?

好的。那麼勞拉，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。這是關於我們海外晶圓廠的事情，她想知道我們是否會考慮合資作為未來的模式，無論是在歐洲還是其他地方？

Is this something that we have done with Wafertech in the past and also recently with Japan. Is JV, the new model going forward?

這是我們過去與 Wafertech 合作過的事情，也是最近與日本合作做過的事情嗎？新的合資模式會繼續發展嗎？

Yes, Laura, this is Mark. To answer your first question about Europe, this is still very early stage we are assessing.

是的，勞拉，這是馬克。回答您關於歐洲的第一個問題，我們仍處於評估的早期階段。

To start the overseas fab, there are many, many considerations. Among them, the top few is -- firstly is the -- our customers' needs. And so in this current planning in the Japan fab, indeed, it was a joint venture. We haven't done joint venture for many years. And we think this joint venture is a -- also a special case.

要啟動海外晶圓廠，需要考慮很多事情。其中，最重要的就是──首先是我們客戶的需求。因此，在日本工廠的當前規劃中，它實際上是一家合資企業。我們已經很多年沒有進行合資了。我們認為這家合資企業也是一個特殊案例。

Typically, every TSMC fab, no matter where it's located, will serve all the customer from around the world. And this Japan joint venture will also the same.

通常，台積電的每座晶圓廠，無論位於何處，都會為來自世界各地的所有客戶提供服務。而這家日本合資公司也將如此。

However, with -- in Japan, we have a very large customer who is a -- have a single technology, and we can also leverage their operating and manufacturing experience in Japan, which help us ramp in the learning curve. So that made us make the decision of a joint venture fab with Sony, where we have a majority share. So this is a special case. And we -- typically, we are considered to proceed a solely-owned fab with 100% ownership. Yes.

然而，在日本，我們有一個非常大的客戶，他們擁有單一技術，我們也可以利用他們在日本的營運和製造經驗，這有助於我們提高學習曲線。因此我們決定與索尼建立合資工廠，並在其中擁有多數股權。所以這是一個特殊情況。通常，我們被認為擁有 100% 的所有權，經營獨資晶圓廠。是的。

That's very clear. And also, my second question specifically on the N6-based RF transceiver. I recall that in your symposium back in June last year, you mentioned that the N6-based RF transceiver for 5G.

這非常清楚。我的第二個問題具體是關於基於 N6 的 RF 收發器。我記得您在去年 6 月的研討會上提到了基於 N6 的 5G 射頻收發器。

Can you give us more update, as we know that there's not much expansion on 16- or 12-nanometer, which is the major technology node for 5G, the RF transceiver? And with the limited supply, just curious about the N6-based 5G RF transceiver, would that become the mainstream? Or what TSMS's capacity plan in this area? And also the client engagement for the N6-based RFs?

您能否為我們提供更多最新進展？而且由於供應有限，我只是好奇基於 N6 的 5G 射頻收發器會成為主流嗎？或者TSMS在這個領域的產能規劃是怎麼樣的？還有基於 N6 的 RF 的客戶參與度嗎？

Okay, Laura, let me try to summarize. Her questions about RF transceivers for 5G. She wants to know, there doesn't seem to be any major capacity expansion. So what is TSMC's strategy for RF transceivers for 5G and also N6? You're talking in N16 or N6, sorry, Laura?

好的，蘿拉，讓我試著總結一下。她對 5G 射頻收發器有疑問。她想知道，似乎沒有任何大規模的產能擴張。那麼台積電針對5G和N6的射頻收發器的策略是什麼呢？你是在 N16 還是 N6 說話，對不起，蘿拉？

The N6 because right now, most of are transceiver are in 16, from my understanding.

因為據我所知，目前大多數收發器都是 16 位元的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. But there is not much difference.

是的。但差別並不大。

So she wants to update on N6 RF transceiver strategy.

所以她想更新 N6 RF 收發器策略。

Okay, Laura. We always are working with our customers closely, right? And the customer makes their decision to choose which technology node and to match their product design best. And you are right. Right now, transceiver is starting moving from 28-nanometer to 16, and now moving to N6. We are expanding our capacity to meet the demand. That's all I can say. Did that answer your question?

好的，蘿拉。我們一直與客戶密切合作，對嗎？客戶決定選擇哪種技術節點來最好地匹配他們的產品設計。你是對的。目前，收發器開始從 28 奈米轉向 16 奈米，現在正轉向 N6。我們正在擴大產能以滿足需求。我只能說這麼多。這回答了你的問題嗎？

Okay. yes. I think -- can I follow up that will we expect that N6-based RF will be the majority sometime, say, in 2023 or '24?

好的。是的。我想 - 我能否跟進一下，我們是否預計基於 N6 的 RF 將在某個時候佔據主導地位，例如在 2023 年或 2024 年？

So Laura's follow-up is, can we expect N6 RF to be the majority in -- by 2023 or '24?

因此勞拉的後續問題是，我們是否可以預期 N6 RF 在 2023 年或 2024 年佔多數？

Well, I should not comment on that. This is between TSMC and the TSMC's customers.

嗯，我不應該對此發表評論。這是台積電與台積電客戶之間的事。

Okay. Thank you. Operator, in the interest of time, I think we'll take the final two questions.

好的。謝謝。接線員，為了節省時間，我想我們將回答最後兩個問題。

Next one to ask questions, Krish Sankar from Cowen & Company.

下一個提問的是 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

Congrats on the really strong results. My first question is on gross margins. Wendell, you said long-term gross margin about 53%. The last couple of quarters, you said it will be over 50%. So is it safe to assume that the price increases are the big reason for this increase in gross margin? And are these structural? Or are they cyclical?

恭喜您取得如此出色的成績。我的第一個問題是關於毛利率的。溫德爾，您說長期毛利率約為 53%。過去幾個季度，您說過這個數字將超過 50%。那麼，我們可以肯定地說，價格上漲是毛利率上升的主要原因嗎？這些是結構性的嗎？或者它們是周期性的？

And is there some other variable in play given in gross margin improvement, since it's interesting that CapEx is going up, but the depreciation is not having an impact longer term on the gross margins? That's my first question.

在毛利率提高的過程中是否還有其他變數在起作用，因為有趣的是，資本支出正在上升，但折舊對毛利率沒有長期影響？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. Krish, let me summarize your first question. So Krish notes that Wendell is -- and C.C. said our long-term gross margin target -- last time we said 50% and higher. Now today, we said 53% and higher.

好的。 Krish，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。因此克里什 (Krish) 指出溫德爾 (Wendell) 是－和 C.C.我們的長期毛利率目標－上次我們說的是50%或更高。今天我們說的是53%甚至更高。

So is this because of price? And is this a cyclical element only? Or is this something structural in terms of a higher 53% and higher long-term gross margin target?

那這是因為價格嗎？這僅僅是一個週期性元素嗎？或者從更高的 53% 和更高的長期毛利率目標來看，這是結構性的嗎？

Yes. Well, let me share with you that. We're talking about long term. So several years down the road. I think that shouldn't be a cyclical issue. So previously, it's long term, 50% and higher. Now it's long term, 53% and higher, okay? So that's the difference. And we are working closely with our customers and suppliers to both sell our value and drive our cost improvements. So those are the -- this is the result of all these efforts together.

是的。好吧，讓我來跟你們分享一下。我們談論的是長期的事情。幾年過去了。我認為這不應該是一個週期性問題。所以以前，這是長期的，50% 甚至更高。現在是長期的，53% 甚至更高，好嗎？這就是差別所在。我們正在與客戶和供應商密切合作，既推銷我們的價值，也推動我們的成本改進。所以這些都是——這是所有這些努力的成果。

Got it. Got it. All right. And then my second question is kind of a 2-part question. It's a CapEx and the OpEx question, you spoke about $40 billion to $44 billion CapEx.

知道了。知道了。好的。我的第二個問題可以分成兩個部分。這是資本支出和營運支出的問題，您說過資本支出約為 400 億美元到 440 億美元。

Can you just tell us how much of the CapEx is going to be split between Taiwan and U.S. and Japan, like a geographic breakdown of that $40 billion to $44 billion? And the OpEx side, I understand you don't want to comment on long-term OpEx. But I'm just kind of curious, it's rising global inflation and your interest in recruiting talent in Arizona, how to think about OpEx growth relative to inflation growth?

您能否告訴我們，這筆資本支出中有多少將在台灣、美國和日本之間分配，例如這 400 億美元到 440 億美元的地理分佈情況？至於營運支出方面，我知道您不想對長期營運支出發表評論。但我只是有點好奇，全球通貨膨脹不斷上升，而您對在亞利桑那州招募人才的興趣，如何看待相對於通貨膨脹增長的營運支出增長？

Okay. So Krish second question. First is in terms of the CapEx guidance that we gave this year, $40 billion to $44 billion. He wants to know what portion is for overseas capacity as compared to Taiwan?

好的。 Krish，第二個問題。首先是我們今年給出的資本支出指導價，400億美元到440億美元。他想知道與台灣相比，海外產能佔比是多少？

Okay. For this year, out of the $40 billion and $44 billion, we really don't -- cannot comment on the split between overseas and Taiwan. We normally split or give the breakdown guidance between advanced and mature specialty nodes.

好的。就今年而言，在 400 億美元和 440 億美元中，我們真的無法評論海外和台灣之間的差距。我們一般會將高階專業節點與成熟的專業節點進行劃分或細分指導。

And then the second part is on OpEx. What is the impact? Although we're not giving an operating margin guidance, but rising global inflation, we're trying to recruit talent overseas. What is the -- sorry, outlook for our OpEx?

第二部分是關於營運支出 (OpEx)。有什麼影響？雖然我們沒有給出營業利潤率指引，但由於全球通膨不斷上升，我們正嘗試在海外招募人才。抱歉，我們的營運支出前景如何？

Well, we try very hard -- work very hard to control our operating expenses and to achieve operating leverage. You can probably see from the track records in the past few years and past few quarters that we're always able to achieve operating leverage, and that's something that we will continue to work very hard on.

嗯，我們非常努力——非常努力地控制我們的營運費用並實現營運槓桿。您可能從過去幾年和過去幾季的業績記錄中看到，我們始終能夠實現營運槓桿，而這也是我們將繼續努力實現的目標。

Okay. Thank you, Krish. Operator, in the interest of time, we will take the last participant's questions.

好的。謝謝你，克里什。接線員，由於時間關係，我們將回答最後一位參與者的問題。

Last one to ask questions, Frank Lee from HSBC.

最後一個提問的是匯豐銀行的 Frank Lee。

Just had a question, maybe if I can follow up on the CapEx. I think a year ago, you guys gave a longer term 3-year CapEx target. I understand at this time, your CapEx is only given for 2022.

只是有個問題，也許我可以跟進一下資本支出。我想一年前，你們給了一個較長的 3 年資本支出目標。我了解，目前您的資本支出僅為 2022 年提供。

Just wanted to understand, are there any -- is there more uncertainties about giving a longer-term CapEx that it is why you're not giving a longer-term target, being given? And I think last quarter, you guys have also talked about your CapEx intensity -- and it's going to be more than 50% in 2021. But long-term target, you said in the 30s.

只是想了解一下，給出長期資本支出是否存在更多不確定性，這就是為什麼您不給出長期目標？我認為上個季度你們也談到了資本支出強度——到 2021 年將超過 50%。

But the last quarter, I think it was implied that it was not going to come down to the 30s in the next 2 or 3 years. Is that still the case? That's the first question.

但上個季度，我認為這暗示著未來 2 到 3 年內它不會降到 30 多。現在還是這樣嗎？這是第一個問題。

Okay. So Frank's first question is on CapEx. He said we had talked about $100 billion CapEx in the next 3 years. His question is why are we not guiding for next 3 years CapEx now? Is there some concern we have?

好的。所以弗蘭克的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。他說我們已經談到了未來3年1000億美元的資本支出。他的問題是，為什麼我們現在不指導未來 3 年的資本支出？我們有什麼擔心嗎？

Okay. Frank, we will not comment on the CapEx outlook beyond 2022 to date. Please be reminded that every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow. So as long as our growth outlook looks good, then we will continue our investment approach, the disciplined investment approach, to support our customers and capture the growth opportunities.

好的。弗蘭克，到目前為止，我們不會對 2022 年以後的資本支出前景發表評論。請記住，每年我們的資本支出都是為了預期隨後的成長。因此，只要我們的成長前景良好，我們就會繼續我們的投資方式，即嚴謹的投資方式，來支持我們的客戶並抓住成長機會。

And as regarding to the...

至於…

Okay and then I guess...

好的，那麼我想…

Yes, the capital intensity. Yes. As I've said earlier that in the period of high growth, like today, it is quite normal or it is appropriate for the capital intensity to be high. And if our growth were to slow down, then the capital intensity is expected to decline accordingly. So from what we can see at this moment, you're asking several years from now or probably if a normal situation will probably in the mid-30s.

是的，資本密集度。是的。我剛才講了，在現在這樣的高成長時期，資本密集度高是很正常的，或者說是適當的。如果我們的成長放緩，那麼資本密集度預計也會相應下降。因此，從我們目前看到的情況來看，您要問的是幾年後的情況，或者可能正常情況是 30 年代中期。

Okay. But is that likely in the next 2 or 3 years? Or it's going to be further out until we get to that level?

好的。但在未來兩三年內這可能實現嗎？或者說我們還需要更遠的距離才能達到那個水準？

Long term, several years.

長期，幾年。

I think we'll give you a year-by-year updates. Yes. Okay?

我想我們會為您提供逐年更新的資訊。是的。好的？

Okay. Great. And then I guess my second question is, I think, a consistent message on this call was really about the semi content -- structural semi content growth. I think you guys have mentioned this a couple of times in this call.

好的。偉大的。然後我想我的第二個問題是，我認為，這次電話會議中一致的訊息實際上是關於半內容——結構性半內容增長。我想你們在這通電話中已經提到過幾次了。

Over the past year though, I guess, just wanted to get your sense of -- semi content growth something that seems like it's been well understood. But has there been an incremental surprise in terms of the semi content for you guys over the past year that has a more positive structural long-term growth? And if so, can you share by what application? Or are we seeing content growth in mature nodes as well?

不過，我想，在過去的一年裡，我只是想了解你對半內容成長的看法，似乎人們已經很好地理解了這一點。但是，過去一年來，你們的半導體內容方面是否有所驚喜，是否有更積極的結構性長期成長？如果有，可以分享一下是透過什麼應用程式嗎？或者我們也看到成熟節點中的內容成長？

Okay. So Frank's second question is on the semiconductor enrichment. His question is what are we seeing? Have we seen upside in the last year? And in terms of what specific applications are driving the semiconductor content enrichment. Maybe C.C. can address this last question.

好的。弗蘭克的第二個問題是關於半導體濃縮的。他的問題是我們看到了什麼？去年我們有看到上漲趨勢嗎？以及哪些具體的應用正在推動半導體內容的豐富。也許是 C.C.可以回答最後一個問題。

Yes, sure. I will give you a lively example. If you look at the new car being introduced in the market, you will find out that the semiconductor content has been dramatically increased. And the same happened to data centers, server and et cetera, et cetera.

是的，當然。我給大家舉一個生動的例子。如果你看一下市場上推出的新車，你會發現半導體含量大幅增加。同樣的情況也發生在資料中心、伺服器等等。

Okay?

好的？

Okay. Sorry, I just have to pop in. Is it fair to say then that the semi content growth is something that is structured across all nodes, including advanced as well as some of the specialty nodes?

好的。抱歉，我只是突然想插一句。

So Frank's question then with the semiconductor enrichment, is this only for the leading nodes? Or Is this also hold true at the mature nodes as well?

那麼弗蘭克的問題是，關於半導體濃縮，這只適用於領先節點嗎？或者這在成熟節點也同樣適用嗎？

Well, it's across all the technologies that I can say. I'll give you one example, again. If you look at the ADAS that the leading-edge technology, if we look at the power management, that's a mature technology.

嗯，我可以說它涵蓋了所有技術。我再給你舉一個例子。如果你看看 ADAS，它是一項前沿技術；如果我們看看電源管理，它是一項成熟的技術。

Okay. All right, Frank? Thank you. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Frank.

好的。還好嗎，弗蘭克？謝謝。謝謝你，C.C。謝謝你，弗蘭克。

This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 1 hour from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now. Both are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

我們的問答環節到此結束。在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，會議的重播將在一小時內提供。成績單將在 24 小時後提供。這兩款產品均可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

So thank you for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe. Happy New Year, and we hope you join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都能保持健康和安全。新年快樂，我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。