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Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.
(外語)大家下午好,歡迎參加台積電2021年第一季業績電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監、今天的主持人蘇傑夫。
To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call live via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.
為防止 COVID-19 的傳播,台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 以現場音訊網路直播的方式舉辦我們的收益電話會議,您也可以在該網站上下載收益發佈資料。如果您透過電話會議加入我們,您的撥入線路將處於只聽模式。
The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the first quarter 2021 followed by our guidance for the second quarter 2021. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open the line for Q&A.
今天的活動形式如下。首先,台積電副總裁兼財務長黃溫德爾先生將總結我們 2021 年第一季的營運情況,然後介紹我們對 2021 年第二季的指導。隨後,黃先生將與台積電執行長魏哲家博士共同傳遞公司重要訊息。然後我們將開通問答熱線。
As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.
像往常一樣,我想提醒大家,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。
And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.
現在,我想將電話轉給台積電財務長黃文德爾先生,請他介紹營運狀況和本季的指導。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the first quarter 2021. After that, I will provide the guidance for the second quarter 2021.
謝謝你,傑夫。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從 2021 年第一季的財務亮點開始。之後,我將提供 2021 年第二季的指導。
First quarter revenue increased 0.2% sequentially in NT dollars or 1.9% in U.S. dollars. Our first quarter business was supported by HPC-related demand, balanced by a milder smartphone seasonality than in recent years. Gross margin decreased 1.6 percentage points sequentially to 52.4%, mainly due to relatively lower level of capacity utilization and an unfavorable foreign exchange rate.
第一季營收以新台幣計算季增0.2%,以美元計算季增1.9%。我們第一季的業務受到 HPC 相關需求的支持,同時受到近年來智慧型手機季節性較溫和的影響。毛利率較上月下降1.6個百分點至52.4%,主要由於產能利用率相對較低以及匯率不利。
Total operating expenses slightly increased by TWD 0.8 billion, mainly due to higher level of R&D activities for the N5 family. Therefore, operating margin decreased by 2 percentage points sequentially to 41.5%.
總營業費用略增8億新台幣,主要由於N5系列研發活動水準提高所致。因此,營業利益率季減2個百分點至41.5%。
Overall, our first quarter EPS was TWD 5.39, and ROE was 29.5%.
整體而言,我們第一季度每股收益為新台幣5.39元,股本回報率為29.5%。
Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 14% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, while 7-nanometer accounted for 35%. Advanced technologies, which we now define as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 49% of wafer revenue.
現在讓我們來談談按技術劃分的收入。5奈米製程技術在第一季貢獻了14%的晶圓收入,而7奈米則佔35%。先進技術(我們現在將其定義為 7 奈米及以下)佔晶圓收入的 49%。
Now moving on to revenue by platform. Smartphone decreased 11% quarter-over-quarter to account for 45% of our first quarter revenue. HPC increased [14% to account for 35%. IoT increased 10% to account for 9%. Automotive increased 31% to account for 4%. DCE increased 11%] (corrected by company after the call) to account for 4%.
現在我們來看看按平台劃分的收入。智慧型手機季減 11%,占我們第一季營收的 45%。HPC 增加了 [14% 至 35%]。物聯網成長10%,佔9%。汽車產業成長 31%,佔 4%。大商所上漲11%](電話會議後公司已修正)佔4%。
Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 797 billion.
繼續討論資產負債表。截至第一季末,我們的現金和有價證券總額為 7,970 億新台幣。
On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 45 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD 49 billion in short-term loans, an increase of TWD 50 billion in accrued liabilities and others, partially offset by the decrease of TWD 51 billion in accounts payable.
負債方面,流動負債增加450億元,主要由於短期借款增加490億元、預計負債及其他增加500億元,部分因應付帳款減少510億元所抵銷。
Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD 23 billion, mainly as we raised TWD 21.1 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter.
長期有息債務增加230億新台幣,主要是因為本季我們籌集了211億新台幣的公司債。
On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 1 day to 40 days. Days of inventory increased 10 days to 83 days, primarily due to N5 wafer prebuild.
財務比率方面,應收帳款週轉天數增加1天至40天。庫存天數增加 10 天至 83 天,主要由於 N5 晶圓預建。
Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 228 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 248 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 65 billion for second quarter 2020 cash dividend.
現在,讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第一季度,我們營運產生的現金流量約為 2,280 億新台幣,資本支出為 2,480 億新台幣,2020 年第二季度現金股息為 650 億新台幣。
Short-term loans increased by TWD 52 billion, while bonds payable increased by TWD 18.5 billion due to the bond issuance.
短期借款增加520億新台幣,因發行債券,應付債券增加185億新台幣。
Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 4.6 billion to TWD 665 billion at the end of the quarter.
總體而言,本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 46 億新台幣,達到 6,650 億新台幣。
In U.S. dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditures totaled $8.8 billion.
以美元計算,我們第一季的資本支出總計 88 億美元。
I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our second quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between USD 12.9 billion and USD 13.2 billion, which represents a 1% sequential increase at the midpoint. This revenue guidance includes the minor impact from the power outage that occurred yesterday at our Fab 14 in Tainan.
我已經完成了財務總結。現在讓我們來看看第二季的指導。根據目前的業務前景,我們預計第二季營收將在 129 億美元至 132 億美元之間,以中點計算,季增 1%。此收入預期包括昨天台南 Fab 14 發生停電的輕微影響。
Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 28.4, gross margin is expected to be between 49.5% and 51.5%, operating margin between 38.5% and 40.5%. The sequential decline in second quarter gross margin is mainly due to the margin dilution from higher 5-nanometer contribution, the slower rate of cost improvement as our fabs continue to run at a very high level of utilization and the absence of positive inventory revaluation.
以1美元兌28.4新台幣的匯率假設計算,毛利率預計介於49.5%至51.5%之間,營業利潤率預計介於38.5%至40.5%之間。第二季毛利率環比下降主要是由於 5 奈米貢獻增加導致的利潤率稀釋、我們的晶圓廠繼續以非常高的利用率運行導致成本改善速度放緩以及缺乏積極的庫存重估。
This concludes my financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start with our near-term demand and inventory. We concluded our first quarter with revenue of TWD 362.4 billion or USD 12.9 billion, which was in line with our guidance. The slight sequential increase was mainly driven by HPC-related demand, balanced by a milder smartphone seasonality than in recent years.
我的財務報告到此結束。現在讓我來談談我們的關鍵訊息。我將從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。我們第一季的營收為 3,624 億新台幣或 129 億美元,符合我們的預期。環比小幅成長主要得益於高效能運算 (HPC) 相關需求,而智慧型手機的季節性特徵較近幾年有所緩和。
Moving into second quarter 2021, we expect our revenue to be flattish as HPC-related demand will continue to grow, offset by smartphone seasonality.
進入 2021 年第二季度,我們預計我們的收入將持平,因為 HPC 相關需求將繼續增長,但智慧型手機的季節性將抵消這一影響。
On the inventory front, our fabless customers' overall inventory was healthy exiting fourth quarter of 2020. Amidst the lingering macro and supply uncertainties, we expect our customers and the supply chain to gradually prepare higher levels of inventory throughout the year as compared to the historical seasonal level. We expect this to persist for a period of time given the industry's continued need to ensure supply security.
在庫存方面,截至 2020 年第四季度,我們的無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存狀況良好。在宏觀和供應不確定性持續存在的情況下,我們預計我們的客戶和供應鏈將在全年逐步準備比歷史季節性水平更高的庫存。鑑於該行業持續需要確保供應安全,我們預計這種情況將持續一段時間。
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect our capacity to remain tight throughout the year supported by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced and special technology.
展望下半年,我們預計,由於對我們行業領先的先進和特殊技術的強勁需求,我們的產能全年仍將保持緊張。
For the full year of 2021, we now forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to grow about 12% while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 16%. For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow by around 20% in 2021 in U.S. dollar terms.
對於 2021 年全年,我們現在預測不包括記憶體在內的整個半導體市場將成長約 12%,而代工產業的成長預計約為 16%。對於台積電,我們有信心能夠超越代工收入成長,並在 2021 年實現以美元計算約 20% 的成長。
Next, let me talk about our capital budget for this year. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years. As we enter a period of higher growth underpinned by the multi-year structural megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications, we believe a higher level of capital investment is necessary to capture the future growth opportunities.
接下來我來介紹我們今年的資本預算。每年,我們的資本支出都是為了預期未來幾年的成長。隨著我們進入由 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年結構性大趨勢所支撐的更高成長時期,我們相信需要更高水準的資本投資才能抓住未來的成長機會。
In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion. About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.
為了滿足未來幾年對我們的先進和專業技術日益增長的需求,我們決定將 2021 年全年資本支出提高至約 300 億美元。2021年資本預算中約80%將分配給先進製程技術,包括3奈米、5奈米和7奈米。約10%將用於先進封裝及光罩製造,約10%將用於特色技術。
Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.
現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Thank you, Wendell. We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time.
謝謝你,溫德爾。我們希望每個人在這段時間都能保持安全和健康。
First, let me talk about the capacity shortage and demand outlook. Our customers are currently facing challenges from the industry-wide semiconductor capacity shortage, which is driven by both a structural increase in long-term demand as well as short-term imbalance in the supply chain. We are witnessing a structural increase in underlying semiconductor demand as a multi-year megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications are expected to fuel strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years. COVID-19 has also fundamentally accelerated the digital transformation, making semiconductors more pervasive and essential in people's life.
首先,我來談談產能短缺和需求前景。我們的客戶目前面臨著全產業半導體產能短缺的挑戰,這是由長期需求的結構性成長以及供應鏈的短期失衡共同推動的。我們正在見證基礎半導體需求的結構性成長,因為 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的多年大趨勢預計將在未來幾年推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。新冠疫情也從根本上加速了數位轉型,使半導體在人們生活中變得更加普及和重要。
In addition, the need to ensure supply security is creating short-term imbalance in the supply chain, driven by supply chain disruption due to COVID-19 and uncertainties brought about by geopolitical tensions.
此外,由於新冠疫情導致的供應鏈中斷以及地緣政治緊張局勢帶來的不確定性,確保供應安全的需求正在造成供應鏈的短期失衡。
Now let me talk about TSMC's investment plan and disciplines. TSMC's mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider for the global logical IC industry for years to come. In order to support our customers' growth, TSMC is taking several actions to help address the capacity shortage for our customers. We are working hard to increase our productivity, to drive more output, to help support our customers for the near term.
現在我講一下台積電的投資計畫和紀律。台積電的使命是在未來幾年成為全球邏輯積體電路產業值得信賴的技術和產能提供者。為了支持客戶的成長,台積電正在採取多項措施來幫助客戶解決產能短缺問題。我們正在努力提高生產力,推動更多產量,以便在短期內為客戶提供支援。
To address the structural increase in the long-term demand profile, we are working closely with our customers and investing to support their demand. We have acquired land and equipment and started the construction of new facilities. We are hiring thousands of employees and expanding our capacity at multiple sites. TSMC expect to invest about USD 100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&D of leading-edge and specialty technologies.
為了應對長期需求的結構性成長,我們正在與客戶密切合作並進行投資以支持他們的需求。我們已經購置了土地和設備,並開始建造新設施。我們正在招募數千名員工,並在多個地點擴大我們的產能。台積電預計未來3年將投資約1,000億美元來增加產能,以支援尖端和特殊技術的製造和研發。
Increased capacity is expected to improve supply certainty for our customers and help strengthen confidence in global supply chains that rely on semiconductors.
預計產能的提高將提高我們客戶的供應確定性,並有助於增強依賴半導體的全球供應鏈的信心。
Our capital investment decisions are based on 4 disciplines: technology leadership, flexible and responsive manufacturing, retaining customers' trust and earning the proper return. At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading nodes, new investment in mature nodes and rising material costs. Therefore, we will continue to work closely with customers to sell our value. Our value includes the value of our technology, the value of our service and the value of our capacity support to customers. We will look to firm up our wafer pricing to a reasonable level. We will continue to work diligently with our suppliers to deliver on cost improvement.
我們的資本投資決策基於四個原則:技術領先、靈活且反應迅速的製造、保持客戶信任以及獲得適當的回報。同時,由於領先節點製程複雜性不斷增加、成熟節點新增投資、材料成本上升,我們面臨製造成本挑戰。因此,我們將繼續與客戶密切合作,並推銷我們的價值。我們的價值包括我們技術的價值、我們服務的價值、我們對客戶能力支援的價值。我們將努力將晶圓定價穩定在合理水平。我們將繼續與供應商密切合作,實現成本改善。
By taking such actions, we believe we can continue to earn a proper return that enable us to invest to support our customers' growth and fulfill our mission as trusted foundry partner. With our technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust, we are well positioned to capture the growth from the favorable industry megatrend.
透過採取這樣的行動,我們相信我們可以繼續獲得適當的回報,使我們能夠投資以支持客戶的成長並履行我們作為值得信賴的代工合作夥伴的使命。憑藉我們的技術領先地位、卓越的製造能力和客戶信任,我們完全有能力抓住有利的行業大趨勢帶來的成長機會。
We reiterate our long-term revenue to be 10% to 15% CAGR from 2020 to 2025 in U.S. dollar terms.
我們重申,我們的長期收入在 2020 年至 2025 年期間的複合年增長率為 10% 至 15%(以美元計算)。
Next, let me talk about the automotive supply update. The automotive market has been soft since 2018. Entering 2020, COVID-19 further impact the automotive market. The automotive supply chain was affected throughout the year, and our customers continued to reduce their demand throughout the third quarter of 2020. We only began to see sudden recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020.
接下來我來談談汽車供應更新的情況。自2018年以來,汽車市場一直疲軟。進入2020年,新冠疫情進一步影響汽車市場。汽車供應鏈全年受到影響,我們的客戶在 2020 年第三季持續減少需求。我們直到 2020 年第四季才開始看到突然復甦。
However, the automotive supply chain is long and complex with its own inventory management practices. From chip production to car production, it takes at least 6 months with several tiers of suppliers in between. TSMC is doing its part to address the chip supply challenges for our customers.
然而,汽車供應鏈很長且複雜,有其自身的庫存管理實務。從晶片生產到汽車生產,至少要6個月的時間,中間還要經過幾層供應商。台積電正在盡自己的努力為客戶解決晶片供應挑戰。
In January of this year, TSMC announced that capacity support for automotive customers is our top priority. Since then, we have worked dynamically with our other customers to reallocate our wafer capacity to support worldwide automotive industry. However, the shortage further deteriorated due to the unexpected snowstorm in Texas and the fab manufacturing disruption in Japan. Together with our productivity improvement, we expect the automotive component shortage from semiconductor to be greatly reduced for TSMC's customer by the next quarter.
今年1月,台積電宣布,汽車客戶的產能支援是我們的首要任務。從那時起,我們就與其他客戶積極合作,重新分配我們的晶圓產能,以支持全球汽車產業。然而,由於德州意外的暴風雪和日本晶圓廠的生產中斷,短缺情況進一步惡化。隨著我們生產力的提高,我們預計到下個季度,台積電客戶的半導體汽車零件短缺問題將大大減少。
Now I will talk about Taiwan water supply update. The water supply in Taiwan is currently tight due to the lack of rainfall in the past year. We have been prepared for this. TSMC has a long-established enterprise risk management system in place, which covers water supply risk as well. Through our existing water-conservation measures, we are able to manage the current water usage reduction requirement from the government with no impact on our operations. We also have detailed response procedure to handle water shortage at different stages. We will continue our collaborative effort with the government and the private sectors on water conservation and new water sources. With our comprehensive enterprise risk management system, we do not expect to see any material impact to our operations.
現在我來講一下台灣供水更新的情況。由於過去一年降雨不足,台灣目前供水緊張。我們已經為此做好了準備。台積電擁有完善的企業風險管理體系,其中也涵蓋了供水風險。透過現有的節水措施,我們能夠滿足政府目前的用水量減少要求,並且不會對我們的營運產生影響。我們也有詳細的應對程序來處理不同階段的缺水問題。我們將繼續與政府和私營部門在節約用水和開發新水源方面進行合作。憑藉我們全面的企業風險管理系統,我們預計我們的營運不會受到任何重大影響。
Finally, I will talk about the N5 and N3 status. TSMC's N5 is the foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA. N5 is already in its second year of volume production with yield better than our original plan. N5 demand continues to be strong, driven by smartphone and HPC applications, and we expect N5 to contribute around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021.
最後說一下N5和N3的狀態。台積電的N5是代工產業最先進的解決方案,具有最佳的PPA。N5已經進入量產的第二年,產量已經超過了我們最初的計劃。在智慧型手機和 HPC 應用的推動下,N5 需求持續強勁,我們預計 2021 年 N5 將貢獻我們晶圓收入的 20% 左右。
N4 will leverage the strong foundation of N5 to further extend our 5-nanometer family. N4 is a straightforward migration from N5 with compatible design rules while providing further performance, power and density enhancement for the next wave of 5-nanometer products. N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022. Thus, we expect demand for our N5 family to continue to grow in the next several years, driven by the robust demand for smartphone and HPC applications.
N4 將利用 N5 的堅實基礎進一步擴展我們的 5 奈米系列。N4 是從 N5 直接遷移而來,具有相容的設計規則,同時為下一波 5 奈米產品提供進一步的性能、功率和密度增強。N4風險生產計劃於今年下半年進行,並於2022年實現量產。因此,我們預計,受智慧型手機和 HPC 應用強勁需求的推動,未來幾年對 N5 系列的需求將持續成長。
N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 and will use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost for our customers. Our N3 technology development is on track with good progress. We continue to see a much higher level of customer engagement for both HPC and smartphone applications at N3 as compared with N5 and [N7] (corrected by company after the call) at a similar stage.
N3 將是我們的 N5 的另一個完整節點的跨越,並將使用 FinFET 電晶體結構,為我們的客戶提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。我們的N3技術開發正在順利進行,進展良好。我們繼續看到,與處於類似階段的 N5 和 [N7](電話會議後公司進行了更正)相比,N3 的 HPC 和智慧型手機應用的客戶參與度要高得多。
Risk production is scheduled in 2021. The volume production is targeted in second half of 2022. Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology, which it is introduced -- when it is introduced, I'm sorry. Thus, we are confident that both our 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer will be large and long-lasting nodes for TSMC.
風險生產計劃於2021年進行。預計 2022 年下半年實現量產。我們的 3 奈米技術將是 PPA 和電晶體技術中最先進的代工技術,當它推出時,對不起。因此,我們有信心,我們的 5 奈米和 3 奈米都將成為台積電的大型且持久的節點。
This is concluding our key message. Thank you for your attention.
這就是我們的關鍵訊息。感謝您的關注。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements. (Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions)
謝謝,C.C。我們的準備好的聲明到此結束。(操作員指示)如果您想用中文提出問題,我會將其翻譯成英文,然後我們的管理層才會回答您的問題。(操作員指示)
Now let's begin the Q&A session. Operator, can you please proceed with the first caller on the line?
現在我們開始問答環節。接線生,您能繼續與第一位來電者通話嗎?
Operator
Operator
The first one to ask question, Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.
第一個提問的是瑞士信貸的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Okay. Yes. And I wanted to ask the first question just about Intel. They did announce their plans to reengage in the foundry sector and also, I think making it clear, their goals are to get back to manufacturing leadership. So could you discuss how you're viewing them now as a customer and also the assurances you're getting in business sustainability and how you're managing the potential risk if they improve manufacturing and pull back on some of the outsourcing plans?
好的。是的。我想問的第一個問題是關於英特爾的。他們確實宣布了重新參與代工領域的計劃,我認為他們明確表示,他們的目標是重返製造業領導地位。那麼,您能否討論一下您現在作為客戶如何看待他們,以及您在業務可持續性方面獲得的保證,以及如果他們改進製造並撤回一些外包計劃,您如何管理潛在風險?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Randy, let me summarize your first question. Randy's first question relates to Intel and their recent announcement to reengage on foundry and get back to a manufacturing leadership position. So Randy's question is how does TSMC view Intel as a customer? What kind of business assurances are we getting on the sustainability of the business? And how do we manage any of the potential risks?
好的。蘭迪,讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。蘭迪的第一個問題與英特爾有關,他們最近宣布重新參與代工並重返製造業領導地位。那麼 Randy 的問題是台積電該如何看待英特爾這個客戶呢?我們在業務可持續性方面獲得了什麼樣的商業保證?我們該如何管理這些潛在風險?
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Randy, let me start with TSMC is everyone's foundry and support all our customers openly and fairly. Intel is an important customer, and we will collaborate in some areas and compete in other area. And we always work with our customer to develop the necessary technology to support their products.
蘭迪,首先我要說的是,台積電是大家的代工廠,我們公開、公平地支持我們所有的客戶。英特爾是我們重要的客戶,我們會在一些領域合作,在其他領域競爭。我們始終與客戶合作開發必要的技術來支援他們的產品。
Now let me comment a little bit on the competition. As a leading pure-play foundry, TSMC has never been short on competition in our 30-plus-year history, yet we know how to compete. We are -- we will continue to focus on delivering technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and earning our customers' trust. The last point, customers' trust, is fairly important because we do not have internal products that compete with our customer. So we can be the trusted technology and capacity provider and for years to come.
現在讓我對比賽做一點評論。作為領先的純晶圓代工企業,台積電在30多年的發展歷程中從未缺乏競爭,但我們知道如何競爭。我們將繼續致力於提供技術領先、製造卓越和贏得客戶的信任。最後一點,客戶的信任,非常重要,因為我們沒有與客戶競爭的內部產品。因此,我們可以成為未來幾年值得信賴的技術和容量提供者。
And if you ask other comment, how we support Intel, we support them as an important customer. And we plan our capacity for the long-term industry megatrend also. It's not for the short-term demand.
如果你問其他評論,我們如何支持英特爾,我們支持他們作為重要客戶。我們也針對長期的產業大趨勢規劃我們的產能。這不是為了滿足短期需求。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Does that answer your first question, Randy?
好的。這回答了你的第一個問題嗎,蘭迪?
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes. No, that's good on the first question. The second question and topic I wanted to discuss, you mentioned in your prepared remarks about the -- there is a bit more geopolitical pressure with particularly U.S. but also Europe and China. They all are being aggressive about domestic capacity. If you could give an updated view on your strategy, if any shifts at the margin where you've traditionally run at the high scale in Taiwan.
是的。不,第一個問題回答得很好。我想討論的第二個問題和主題,您在準備好的發言中提到了——地緣政治壓力增加,特別是美國,還有歐洲和中國。他們都在積極擴大國內產能。如果您可以對您的策略提出最新的看法,那麼在台灣傳統上大規模營運的邊際上是否有任何轉變。
I'm curious for U.S. with the big land, just any plans to accelerate positioning with the potential eventually to do mega fab?
我很好奇,美國擁有廣闊的土地,是否有任何計劃加速定位並最終有可能建造大型晶圓廠?
If you could give an update on Nanjing, if there's plans to expand from the current -- I think you're at 20,000.
如果您能提供南京的最新情況,是否有計劃從目前規模擴大——我想是 20,000 人。
And, if from a customer level, you're seeing shifts where more customers are starting to consider geographic location in the foundry consideration.
而且,如果從客戶層面來看,你會看到越來越多的客戶開始將地理位置視為代工廠考量。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Randy, let me try to summarize your second question. I think there's quite a few parts. I think first, Randy's question is on looking at sort of the geopolitical landscape and looking at this talk of fabs in different countries. So I think Randy, first, wants to know what is our progress or how do we see particularly U.S manufacturing; secondly, in other areas; and then thirdly, he would like an update on the Nanjing expansion; and lastly, how do customers feel about the need to manufacture in different countries. Is that correct, Randy?
好的。蘭迪,讓我試著總結你的第二個問題。我認為有很多部分。我認為首先,蘭迪的問題是關於地緣政治格局以及不同國家晶圓廠的討論。所以我認為蘭迪首先想知道我們的進展如何,或者我們如何看待美國製造業;其次,他想知道其他領域的情況;第三,他想了解南京擴張的最新進展;最後,他想知道客戶對於在不同國家進行生產的必要性有何看法。對嗎,蘭迪?
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes. That's correct. Yes.
是的。沒錯。是的。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Randy, that's a lot of questions.
蘭迪,有很多問題。
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Sorry. You only gave us 2.
對不起。你只給了我們 2 個。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Let me try to answer. The first one, actually, I would like to say TSMC have been a global company. We have a lot of manufacturing sites outside Taiwan, U.S., Mainland China, Singapore.
讓我試著回答一下。首先,實際上我想說台積電是一家全球性公司。我們在台灣、美國、中國大陸、新加坡以外有許多生產基地。
But let me comment on the U.S. first. We have been in the U.S. for a long time, though. We set up WaferTech, that's an 8-inch fab located in upstate Washington back in 1996 and has continued to operate the manufacture of chips for our customers today. And now we are increasing our presence in the U.S. with an advanced 12-inch semiconductor fab in Arizona and the progress is executing to our plan. And we are happy that we joined the effort to support semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.
但我首先要評論一下美國。不過,我們已經在美國待了很久了。我們於 1996 年在華盛頓州北部建立了 WaferTech,這是一家 8 吋晶圓廠,至今仍在為我們的客戶生產晶片。現在我們正在亞利桑那州建立一座先進的12英寸半導體工廠,擴大我們在美國的業務,進展正在按照我們的計劃進行。我們很高興能夠加入支持美國半導體製造業的努力。
You also asked about our status in Nanjing. Did -- that you asked?
您也詢問了我們在南京的情況。你問的是──嗎?
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes. Yes.
是的。是的。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
The fab in Nanjing is progressing well. We already completed the first phase of 20,000-wafers capacity installation, and actually, it's in production for a while. And we are -- we also have a plan. Depend on the customers' demand and depends on the economics, we have a plan to expand the capacity also, okay?
南京工廠進展順利。我們已經完成了第一階段 20,000 片晶圓產能的安裝,並且實際上已經投入生產一段時間了。我們也有計劃。根據客戶的需求和經濟狀況,我們也有擴大產能的計劃,好嗎?
And other question in Taiwan, why we...
台灣還有另一個問題,為什麼我們…
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Also, 2 others. One, Randy is asking with other regions also.
另外還有 2 個人。首先,蘭迪也向其他地區詢問。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
We never rule out any possibility with other region. But today, we already announced plan. We currently have no further fab expansion plan in other areas such as Europe. But we did not rule out any possibility.
我們從來不排除與其他地區合作的任何可能性。但今天,我們已經宣布了計劃。我們目前沒有在歐洲等其他地區進一步擴建晶圓廠的計畫。但我們並不排除任何可能性。
However, I want to emphasize, Taiwan will continue to be the main focus for TSMC. Our center of R&D and majority of production line will continue to be located in Taiwan, okay? Did that answer your questions?
不過,我想強調的是,台灣仍將是台積電的重點。我們的研發中心和大部分生產線仍會繼續設在台灣,好嗎?這回答了你的問題嗎?
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes. That's clear. And maybe if you can clarify, for customer decisions, just that approach with Taiwan, is there -- are you starting to see it get raised a bit more about customers choosing location? Or are they still focused on the traditional just getting the best PPA, the best cost and delivery time?
是的。這很清楚。也許您可以澄清一下,對於客戶的決策,就像針對台灣的做法一樣,您是否開始看到它更多地涉及客戶選擇位置的問題?或者他們仍然專注於傳統上獲得最佳的 PPA、最佳的成本和交貨時間?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Right. So Randy's -- the last part of his question is, from a customer's perspective, is there a push by customers for this geographic diversification. Or what do customers want?
正確的。所以蘭迪的問題的最後一部分是,從客戶的角度來看,客戶是否會推動這種地理多樣化。或是顧客想要什麼?
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Well, our customer welcome we establish a new fab in Arizona state. Let me say that. However, the most important one to them is technology, is the manufacturing, it's the efficiency that TSMC provides, okay? Actually, that's the most important one other than the consideration of geopolitical locations.
好吧,我們的客戶歡迎我們在亞利桑那州建立一個新的工廠。讓我這麼說吧。但對他們來說最重要的是技術、製造、台積電提供的效率,好嗎?事實上,除了考慮地緣政治位置之外,這是最重要的一點。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Randy? Thank you, Randy. All right.
好的,蘭迪?謝謝你,蘭迪。好的。
Operator
Operator
Next one on the line, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.
下一位是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
My first question, could we talk a little bit about the $100 billion capacity plan for the next 3 years? Is that primarily a CapEx number? Just as you -- just seeing that this year already, we are spending about $30 billion. Should we be assuming that our CapEx is going to run around these levels or even higher in the next 2 years as well? So just wanted to clarify because there was some confusion whether that's a CapEx number or a CapEx plus R&D number.
我的第一個問題,我們能否談談未來三年 1000 億美元的產能計畫?這主要是資本支出數字嗎?正如您所看到的,今年我們已經花費了大約 300 億美元。我們是否應該假設我們的資本支出在未來兩年內也將達到這些水準甚至更高?所以只是想澄清一下,因為有些混淆,不知道這是一個資本支出數字還是資本支出加上研發數字。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So I think, Gokul, your first question is that we intend to spend USD 100 billion in the next 3 years. Is that a CapEx number? And then also, what does that mean for the spending of the CapEx in the next 2 years?
好的。所以我認為,Gokul,你的第一個問題是我們打算在未來 3 年內花費 1000 億美元。這是資本支出數字嗎?那麼,這對未來兩年的資本支出意味著什麼?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Gokul, this is Wendell. Yes, $100 billion is CapEx number. Now we've already guided that this year will be $30 billion, but we're not going into the linearity in the next 2 years. You can actually have a feeling about what we will be spending in the next 2 years.
戈庫爾,這是溫德爾。是的,1000 億美元是資本支出數字。現在我們已經預計今年將達到 300 億美元,但未來兩年我們不會進入線性成長。您實際上可以了解我們在未來兩年將花多少錢。
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Got it. That's very clear. My second question is on the inventory cycle and a lot of the capacity expansion that we are seeing in older technologies. TSMC also is spending about roughly $3 billion based on the new guidance on specialty technologies as well. The industry also seems to be spending quite a bit of capacity there.
知道了。這非常清楚。我的第二個問題是關於庫存週期以及我們在舊技術中看到的大量產能擴張。根據新的指導意見,台積電在專業技術領域也投入了約 30 億美元。該行業似乎也在那裡投入了相當多的產能。
What is TSMC's stake in terms of when we are going to see a bit more normalization in some of the older capacity? Does TSMC also subscribe to the view that even in 2022, we are likely to see some degree of capacity tightness or capacity shortage or TSMC feels that we will likely resolve this towards the end of this year or early next year?
當我們看到一些老產能逐漸恢復正常時,台積電的利害關係是什麼?台積電是否也認同這樣的觀點,即即使在 2022 年,我們也可能會看到一定程度的產能緊張或產能短缺,或者台積電認為我們可能會在今年年底或明年年初解決這個問題?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Gokul, thank you. Let me try to summarize your second question. Your second question is looking -- asking about the inventory cycle and particularly on the mature nodes, looking at the expansion in the mature nodes. And Gokul wants to know, I think, that on the mature nodes, could we see some type of overcapacity and can the tightness continue to persist? Or will we start to see some kind of overcapacity or oversupply towards the end of this year or in 2022? Is that correct, Gokul?
好的。Gokul,謝謝你。讓我試著總結一下你的第二個問題。您的第二個問題是 - 詢問庫存週期,特別是成熟節點,查看成熟節點的擴展。我認為,Gokul 想知道,在成熟的節點上,我們是否會看到某種類型的產能過剩,並且緊張狀況是否會繼續持續下去?或者我們會在今年年底或 2022 年開始看到某種產能過剩或供應過剩的現象嗎?對嗎,Gokul?
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Yes. Just to highlight, I think many of your competitors are talking about 2022 also being undersupplied in many of these process nodes. Just wanted to hear TSMC's view on that.
是的。需要強調的是,我認為你們的許多競爭對手都在談論 2022 年許多工藝節點也會出現供應不足的情況。只是想聽聽台積電對此的看法。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Well, Gokul, let me answer the question carefully because of -- we cannot rule out the possibility of an inventory correction or overbooking, something like that. But actually, we expect the structural demand to continue and we will work with our customer closely actually to develop some technology solution to meet customers' requirement and create differentiation and long-lasting value to our customer.
好吧,Gokul,讓我謹慎地回答這個問題,因為——我們不能排除庫存調整或超額預訂的可能性,諸如此類。但實際上,我們預計結構性需求將會持續下去,我們將與客戶密切合作,開發一些技術解決方案來滿足客戶的需求,並為我們的客戶創造差異化和持久的價值。
As a result, actually we see the demand continue to be high. And the shortage will continue throughout this year and may be extended into 2022 also. Did that answer your questions?
因此,我們實際上看到需求持續走高。這種短缺將持續到今年年底,甚至可能延續到2022年。這回答了你的問題嗎?
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Okay. So do you also feel that customers will continue to hold down to a higher level of inventory for quite some period of time? Is that the way you think about inventory as well?
好的。那麼您是否也認為客戶將在相當長的一段時間內繼續保持較高的庫存水準?您對庫存也是這樣認為的嗎?
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Yes. We expect the customer, almost all of them, to prepare a higher level of inventory. That is because of, today, geopolitical tension continue to persist. Even the COVID-19 will recede sometimes, we hope as soon as possible, but it will continue for a while. And put 2 factor together and we do expect them to prepare a higher level of inventory, and I believe Wendell already said that.
是的。我們預計幾乎所有客戶都會準備更高水準的庫存。這是因為,今天,地緣政治緊張局勢持續存在。即使新冠疫情有時會消退,我們希望盡快消退,但它還會持續一段時間。把這兩個因素結合起來,我們確實希望他們準備更高水準的庫存,我相信溫德爾已經這麼說了。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Yes. Okay, Gokul? Does that answer your second question?
是的。好的,Gokul?這回答了你的第二個問題嗎?
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Now we have Sebastian Hou from CLSA.
現在我們請到的是里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
So first one is on the pricing strategy. So I remember, 6 months ago, the company talked about sticking to the principle of respecting long-term partnership with customers. And the company doesn't seem to want to change the pricing on the mature technology nodes, which I mean 28-nanometers above. So I'm wondering if that's still the case now or if the company now considers some upward adjustment. And if it's the latter, what has changed versus 6 months ago?
第一個是定價策略。所以我記得,6個月前,公司談到堅持尊重與客戶的長期合作關係的原則。而且該公司似乎不想改變成熟技術節點的定價,我指的是 28 奈米以上的技術節點。所以我想知道現在情況是否仍然如此,或者公司現在是否考慮進行一些上調。如果是後者,那麼與 6 個月前相比有什麼變化?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Sebastian. So Sebastian's first question is regards to pricing. And he says that we always talk about long-term partnership with our customers. And he's saying, in particular, on the older nodes, 28-nanometer and such, we -- would we raise the price. So he's asking sort of what is the pricing strategy today and what has changed versus previously.
好的,塞巴斯蒂安。因此,賽巴斯蒂安的第一個問題是關於定價的。他說我們總是談論與客戶建立長期合作關係。他說,特別是在較舊的節點,28奈米等,我們會提高價格。所以他問的是今天的定價策略是什麼以及與以前相比有什麼變化。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Sebastian, let me answer that. For more than 30 years, TSMC has provided stable and predictable pricing and we have refrained from opportunistic or short-term actions.
賽巴斯蒂安,讓我來回答這個問題。30多年來,台積電一直提供穩定且可預測的定價,我們避免採取機會主義或短期行動。
But now as I said in my statement, the cost structure start to change, structural change, because of -- we have to invest on the leading-edge technology, which is more complex than ever. And we also increased the mature technology node capacity, which a lot of them already been fully depreciated and now we have to invest on the new tools.
但正如我在聲明中所說,成本結構開始發生變化,結構性變化,因為——我們必須投資於比以往任何時候都更加複雜的尖端技術。我們也增加了成熟技術節點的產能,其中許多已經完全折舊,現在我們必須投資新的工具。
So we refrain from opportunistic and short-term action, but we also had to sell our value. So we are working with our customer closely, and we want to firm up our wafer pricing to a reasonable level. And we also work with our supplier to deliver the cost reduction, and we want to earn a proper return that enable us to continue to invest to support our customers' growth. And in today's term, capacity support is the most important one they are looking for. Okay.
因此,我們避免機會主義和短期行動,但我們也必須推銷我們的價值。因此,我們正在與客戶密切合作,我們希望將晶圓定價穩定在合理水平。我們還與供應商合作降低成本,並希望獲得適當的回報,以便我們繼續投資以支持客戶的成長。而在今天的條件下,產能支持是他們尋求的最重要的支持。好的。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay.
好的。
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Got it. That's fair. And my...
知道了。這很公平。還有我的…
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Do you have a second question? Yes, sorry, go ahead.
您還有第二個問題嗎?是的,抱歉,請繼續。
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Yes. I do have a second question. I think we're -- for many reasons, we have seen in many countries globally, they plan or they want to increase their -- build their own semiconductor fabrication capacity domestically. We're also seeing some IDM, they are forced to increase their in-sourcing or add some internal capacity because of the chip crunch. So my question is that IDM outsourcing has been one favorable driver for the foundry industry and TSMC growth in the past 3 decades and how TSMC see this trend evolving in coming years. And would you be concerning this could lead to some overcapacity in a few years even if some of those may not be effective? That is my second question.
是的。我還有第二個問題。我認為,出於多種原因,我們已經看到全球許多國家都計劃或希望增加其國內半導體製造能力。我們也看到一些 IDM 由於晶片短缺而被迫增加內部採購或增加一些內部產能。所以我的問題是,IDM外包在過去30年裡一直是代工產業和台積電成長的一個有利驅動力,以及台積電如何看待未來幾年這一趨勢的發展。您是否擔心這會在幾年內導致產能過剩,即使其中一些措施可能沒有效果?這是我的第二個問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Sebastian, let me summarize your question. Your observation that countries are pushing for more domestic manufacturing and IDMs are also looking at expanding capacity. So Sebastian's question is looking at IDM outsourcing. Do we see this trend slowing down? Or how do we see it in the next coming few years? And could this result, this capacity that's being built, result in excess capacity?
好的。賽巴斯蒂安,讓我總結一下你的問題。您觀察到各國正在推動更多的國內製造業,而 IDM 也正在考慮擴大產能。所以塞巴斯蒂安的問題是關於 IDM 外包。我們是否看到這種趨勢正在放緩?或者我們如何看待未來幾年的情況?那麼,正在建設的產能是否會導致產能過剩?
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Well, Sebastian, let me say that in our long-term forecast, we continue to see the IDMs outsourcing continue to increase. And so we prepare the capacity for that also. And we don't think that IDM tried to expand their own capacity will result in overcapacity situation because of we -- technology is the most important thing, let me say that. And we expand our capacity based on the customers' need. And we saw the technology leadership that provided their product to be very competitive in the market. So they are all happy to work with TSMC in developing their products for now, for the future. And so as a result, we continue to see the increased outsourcing from IDMs.
好吧,塞巴斯蒂安,我想說的是,在我們的長期預測中,我們將繼續看到 IDM 外包持續增加。因此我們也為此做好了準備。我們不認為IDM試圖擴大自己的產能會導致產能過剩的情況,因為我們——科技是最重要的,讓我這麼說。而我們根據客戶的需求擴大我們的產能。我們看到了其技術領先優勢,使得他們的產品在市場上極具競爭力。因此,他們都很高興與台積電合作開發現在和未來的產品。因此,我們繼續看到 IDM 外包業務的增加。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Sebastian, does that answer your second question?
好的。賽巴斯蒂安,這回答了你的第二個問題嗎?
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Yes. Yes, it does.
是的。是的。
Operator
Operator
Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.
下一個提問的是摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
So first of all, can I ask about the change of the 2021 revenue guidance? Can you explain where is the upside coming from, I mean, by applications will be great. And does that include some pricing adjustments for those revised up revenue guidance?
那麼首先,我可以問一下 2021 年收入指引的變化嗎?你能解釋一下好處來自哪裡嗎,我的意思是,應用程式會很棒。這是否包括針對上調的收入指引進行的一些價格調整?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
All right. I think Charlie's first question is relating to our 2021 revenue guidance from now of around 20% to say what has changed versus last time. And he also wants to know, can we talk about, by application, what is driving this change.
好的。我認為查理的第一個問題與我們現在的 2021 年收入預期(約 20%)有關,與上次相比有什麼變化。他也想知道,我們能否透過應用程式來談論推動這項變革的因素。
And what was the last part of the question, Charlie? Sorry.
查理,這個問題的最後一部分是什麼?對不起。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Actually, that's it. And does that include -- capture some price hike as well?
事實上,就是這樣。這是否也包括——捕獲一些價格上漲?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
So his question is what is driving the change in the growth guidance for this year. And he would like to know which applications are driving it. And does it include some price increases in this guidance?
所以他的問題是,是什麼導致了今年成長預期的變化。他想知道哪些應用程式在推動它。該指南中是否包含一些價格上漲?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Charlie, first of all, we don't comment on price. I can share with you that we're everyone's foundry, our CapEx and capacity planning are based on the long-term demand profile underpinned by the industry megatrends, not short-term cyclical factors. We are seeing stronger engagements with more customers on 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer as compared to 3 months ago. And we work closely with our customers to plan the capacity, and we'll continue to focus our investments on advanced and specialty technology to support our customers' structural growth.
好的。查理,首先,我們不對價格發表評論。我可以告訴大家,我們是大家的代工廠,我們的資本支出和產能規劃是基於產業大趨勢支撐的長期需求狀況,而不是短期週期性因素。與 3 個月前相比,我們看到更多客戶在 5 奈米和 3 奈米方面進行了更緊密的合作。我們與客戶密切合作,規劃產能,並將繼續把投資重點放在先進和專業技術上,以支持客戶的結構性成長。
Now this year, we expect -- in terms of platform, we expect that HPC and automotive platform growth will be higher than the corporate average, and the smartphone and IoT will be close to the corporate average.
今年,我們預計—就平台而言,我們預計 HPC 和汽車平台的成長將高於企業平均水平,而智慧型手機和物聯網將接近企業平均水平。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Okay. Understood. So it seems like the upside coming cross-border or just some specific application. I know that HPC automotive are growing better. But just compared to last guidance, what was driving the upside?
好的。明白了。因此,跨境或某些特定應用似乎將成為優勢。我知道 HPC 汽車正在發展得更好。但與上次的指引相比,推動上漲的因素是什麼?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Actually, all the platforms have upside compared to 3 months ago.
好的。實際上,與三個月前相比,所有平台都有所上漲。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Okay. Got you. And then my next question is about your capital intensity in the long term. I mean I think 1 or 2 quarters ago, company updated capital intensity, and at some point, can flow back to like 35% capital intensity. I'm not sure if that's the case for the coming 3 years.
好的。明白了。我的下一個問題是關於你們長期的資本密集度。我的意思是,我認為 1 或 2 個季度前,公司更新了資本強度,並且在某個時候,可以回流到 35% 的資本強度。我不確定未來三年的情況是否如此。
And also, linked to that, what does that mean to the long-term gross margin trend? Because in today's conference call, I keep hearing some comments about structural cost increase. I'm not sure you said about the chemicals or equipment price. But would that kind of impact company's long-term gross margin trend?
此外,與此相關的是,這對長期毛利率趨勢意味著什麼?因為在今天的電話會議中,我不斷聽到一些關於結構性成本增加的評論。我不確定您是否提到了化學品或設備的價格。但這是否會影響公司的長期毛利率趨勢?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Sure. Charlie, let me share with you. Capital -- I'm sorry. Go ahead.
當然。查理,讓我與你分享。首都——對不起。前進。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Yes. It's okay. Yes, I think, Charlie, your question is on capital intensity, looking at what is the capital intensity looking like the next few years. And how does this correlate with our stated long-term capital intensity of kind of mid-30s range? And then he also -- on the back of that, what does this mean for the long-term gross margin trend?
是的。沒關係。是的,查理,我認為你的問題是關於資本密集度的,看看未來幾年資本密集度會是什麼樣子。這與我們所述的 30 多歲的長期資本密集度有何關聯?然後他也——基於此,這對長期毛利率趨勢意味著什麼?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Charlie, in terms of capital intensity, I've actually given out several points already. First of all, if you look at -- we're saying in the next 3 years, we'll be spending USD 100 billion and this year will be $30 billion. We also say that in the next 5 years, we expect to grow between 10% to 15% revenue CAGR. So if you do math, you probably will have a good idea about where our capital intensity will be in the next 3 years. Now at this moment, we still expect that the capital intensity will go back to mid-30 level in the longer term. That's the capital intensity.
好的。查理,關於資本密集度,我實際上已經給了幾點。首先,如果你看一下——我們說在未來 3 年內,我們將花費 1000 億美元,而今年將花費 300 億美元。我們也表示,未來 5 年,我們預計營收複合年增長率將達到 10% 至 15%。所以,如果你算一下,你可能會很清楚知道未來 3 年我們的資本密集度會達到什麼程度。目前,我們仍預期長期來看資本密集度將回到30%左右的水準。這就是資本密集度。
In terms of gross margins, I think as C.C. has already mentioned, we see some challenges from manufacturing costs due to the increasing complexity of leading nodes, the new investment in mature nodes and some rising material costs. And therefore, we are taking actions to ensure that we earn a proper return by firming up our price, working with the supplier to drive the cost improvement. We expect that the 50% gross margin remains our target and is achievable.
就毛利率而言,我認為正如 C.C. 已經提到的,由於領先節點的複雜性不斷增加、對成熟節點的新投資以及材料成本的上升,我們看到了製造成本方面的一些挑戰。因此,我們正在採取行動,透過穩定價格、與供應商合作推動成本改善來確保適當的回報。我們預計 50% 的毛利率仍然是我們的目標,而且是可以實現的。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay?
好的?
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Okay. Yes. That's a very, very quick -- so can I assume part of that $100 billion CapEx also associated to a cost increase? And if that's the case, how much of that is due to the cost increase versus the demand?
好的。是的。這是一個非常非常快的——那麼我可以假設這 1000 億美元的資本支出的一部分也與成本增加有關嗎?如果事實確實如此,那麼其中有多少是由於成本增加而導致的需求增加?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
This is -- I think the last part of this question is that then out of the $100 billion and this higher capital intensity, how much is due to the cost versus the demand.
這是——我認為這個問題的最後一部分是,那麼在這 1000 億美元和更高的資本密集度中,有多少是由於成本與需求的關係。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Yes. Exactly.
是的。確切地。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Charlie, basically, we're seeing more engagement of our demand in the next few years. So I would say most of the CapEx come from the strong demand for our advanced technology and specialty technology, especially 5 and 3 nanometers.
好的。查理,基本上,我們在未來幾年會看到更多需求的參與。因此,我想說大部分資本支出來自對我們的先進技術和專業技術的強勁需求,尤其是 5 奈米和 3 奈米。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Charlie.
好的。謝謝你,查理。
Operator
Operator
Next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.
下一個提問的是高盛的 Bruce Lu。
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
My question I'll just stick with the $100 billion CapEx. I mean this is the first time for TSMC to announce a multi-year CapEx. I think this suggests a very, very strong growth even beyond 2023, over 2025. So can you give us a little bit more color about like what kind of application demand, which is strong enough to give the company such as high confidence for the CapEx? I mean we've seen through several cycles, but how can we have confidence just for the demand, like 3 to 5 years down the road?
我的問題是,我只會堅持 1000 億美元的資本支出。我的意思是說這是台積電首次宣布多年期資本支出。我認為這表明即使在 2023 年、2025 年以後也將出現非常強勁的成長。那麼,您能否向我們詳細介紹一下什麼樣的應用需求,這些需求足以讓公司對資本支出有如此高的信心?我的意思是我們已經經歷了幾個週期,但我們如何對未來 3 到 5 年的需求有信心呢?
Also, assuming TSMC mostly invests in advanced nodes, do you foresee the mature node capacity tightness continue and how and when this can be resolved?
此外,假設台積電主要投資於先進節點,您是否預見成熟節點產能緊張的情況會持續下去,以及如何以及何時解決這個問題?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Bruce has 2 questions. Both -- first is related to our CapEx. With such a high level of spending, what is giving us the confidence that we see out over the next several years to spend -- an intention to spend this $100 billion?
好的。所以布魯斯有兩個問題。兩者——首先與我們的資本支出有關。在支出水準如此之高的情況下,是什麼讓我們有信心在未來幾年內花掉這 1,000 億美元?
And then his second -- well, maybe we'll go that first and then second question.
然後是他的第二個問題——好吧,也許我們先討論這個問題,然後再討論第二個問題。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Okay. Let me answer that one first. In fact, we are seeing stronger engagement with more customers on 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer. And the engagement is so strong that we have to really prepare the capacity for it. And that's the main reason. So what is the second?
好的。讓我先回答這個問題。事實上,我們看到更多客戶在 5 奈米和 3 奈米方面有更緊密的互動。而且參與度如此之高,我們必須做好充分的準備。這就是主要原因。那麼第二個是什麼呢?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
And then his second question is then looking at our CapEx, with the majority of our CapEx being on advanced nodes, on the mature nodes then, will the, I think, the supply-demand gap in mature nodes further widen?
然後他的第二個問題是看看我們的資本支出,我們的大部分資本支出都在高階節點上,在成熟節點上,我認為成熟節點的供需缺口會進一步擴大嗎?
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
We did see the gap that mature node capacity not enough to support all the products in the market. So we are working with our customer closely to analyze the gap and we are also preparing to invest on the mature node, as I said in my statement. But most important, we are developing the technology, specialty technology, with the mature node to support our customers' need so their product can be very competitive in the market. And so we can have demand secured for the next few years and we decide to invest on the mature node capacity.
我們確實看到了成熟節點容量不足以支持市場上所有產品的差距。因此,正如我在聲明中所說,我們正在與客戶密切合作,分析差距,我們也準備在成熟節點上進行投資。但最重要的是,我們正在開發技術,專業技術,以成熟的節點來支援客戶的需求,以便他們的產品在市場上具有強大的競爭力。因此,我們可以確保未來幾年的需求,並決定投資成熟的節點容量。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Bruce, does that answer your 2 questions?
好的。布魯斯,這回答了你的兩個問題嗎?
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Bruce Lu - Research Analyst
Okay. Can I take one?
好的。我可以拿一個嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
We have to limit to 2, sorry. There's a lot of people still waiting. Thank you.
我們必須限制為 2,抱歉。還有很多人在等待。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next one to ask questions, Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.
下一個提問的是德意志銀行的羅伯特‧桑德斯。
Robert Sanders - Director
Robert Sanders - Director
Yes. My first question is regarding your CapEx rising up to the mid-30s by 2023. Are you asking customers to commit earlier than normal on that capacity? And are you considering asking customers for prepayments? How do you derisk those capacity plans? And are you seeing an increased willingness to single source?
是的。我的第一個問題是關於你們的資本支出到 2023 年是否會上升到 30% 左右。您是否要求客戶比平常更早承諾該容量?您是否考慮要求客戶預付款?您如何降低這些容量計劃的風險?您是否看到了單一來源的意願有所增強?
My second question was how far are you actually booked out on capacity? And at which node is the biggest gap between demand and your capacity?
我的第二個問題是,你們的實際預訂量是多少?需求和產能之間的最大差距出現在哪個節點?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Robert, we'll take your questions one at a time. So his first question is looking at our CapEx for the next few years. With this level of spending, do we see customer commitments that are earlier than normal? Are we looking for things like prepayments from customers to secure their commitments? This is the first question.
好的。羅伯特,我們會逐一回答您的問題。因此,他的第一個問題是展望我們未來幾年的資本支出。在這種支出水準下,我們是否會看到客戶的承諾比平常更早?我們是否希望客戶預付款之類的方式來確保他們的承諾?這是第一個問題。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Robert, let me answer this first. The $100 billion of CapEx is decided because we see the fundamental structure demand increase from the megatrend, multi-year megatrend and the acceleration of the digital transformations.
好的。羅伯特,讓我先回答這個問題。決定 1000 億美元的資本支出是因為我們看到大趨勢、多年大趨勢和數位轉型加速帶來的基本結構需求增加。
Now we cannot disclose the detail of our commercial terms with our customers. However, for us to make the investment decision will definitely require proper returns and secure customer commitments.
現在我們不能透露與客戶之間的商業條款的細節。然而,我們所做的投資決策肯定需要適當的回報和有保障的客戶承諾。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. And then Robert's second question is how far are we booked in advance in terms of our demand and which nodes do we see the biggest gap between what customers may want.
好的。然後羅伯特的第二個問題是,就需求而言,我們提前預訂了多少,以及哪些節點與客戶的需求之間存在最大差距。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Well, I cannot comment on which node because almost all the nodes are in -- today in a high demand. However, let me stress again that our investment in the capacities for the future, many years to come because we work with customer closely to plan for the next few years' capacity support to them. And the customer talking to TSMC and lay out their product plan for the next few years and it is 3 to 4 years, and we plan the capacity for that.
嗯,我無法評論是哪個節點,因為今天幾乎所有節點的需求都很大。不過,我要再次強調,我們對未來許多年產能的投資是因為我們與客戶密切合作,規劃未來幾年對他們的產能支援。客戶與台積電進行了交談,制定了未來幾年的產品計劃,計劃是3到4年,我們也為此規劃了產能。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Robert.
好的。謝謝。謝謝你,C.C。謝謝你,羅伯特。
Operator
Operator
Now we have Brett Simpson from Arete Research.
現在我們請到 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Yes. I had a question on the crypto activity at TSMC. I guess we've seen record hash rate expansion around Bitcoin ASICs and GPU mining in the last couple of quarters. So can you maybe share with us what portion of sales -- HPC sales is crypto at the moment? And then as we get into the second half of the year, should we expect this to decline?
是的。我對台積電的加密活動有疑問。我想我們在過去幾季中已經看到了比特幣 ASIC 和 GPU 挖礦的哈希率創紀錄的擴張。那麼,您能否與我們分享目前 HPC 銷售中有多少部分是加密貨幣?那麼,當我們進入下半年時,我們是否應該預期這一數字會下降?
And I wanted to get your perspective. A couple of years ago, we had extreme volatility around crypto. Bitcoin is now $1 trillion market cap. Is this good business for TSMC? Do you think this time will be different? I just wanted to get your perspective on this.
我想了解你的看法。幾年前,加密貨幣市場波動極大。比特幣目前的市值已達 1 兆美元。這對台積電來說是好事嗎?您認為這次會有所不同嗎?我只是想了解你對此的看法。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So let me repeat your first question, Brett. He's asking about -- within HPC, looking at cryptocurrency, and he's asking what is the contribution we're seeing from cryptocurrency -- or crypto mining, I should say, to our revenue. And do we expect this -- how do we expect this to go in the second half of this year?
好的。那麼,讓我重複一下你的第一個問題,布雷特。他詢問的是——在 HPC 內部,研究加密貨幣,他詢問的是加密貨幣——或者應該說加密挖礦——對我們的收入有何貢獻。我們對此有何預期?我們預計今年下半年情況會如何?
And then a longer-term question, which is how do we view this business.
然後是一個長期問題,即我們如何看待這項業務。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Let me answer the question. TSMC's technology is a leading technology, and that's why even cryptocurrencies mining using TSMC technology a lot. But I don't -- and I cannot comment on what is the percentage or how much of this particular market sector to our revenue. However, I can say that cryptocurrency mining today is more mature than it was 2 or 3 years ago. And it remains a volatile market. However, we will continue to work closely with our customers in this field.
讓我來回答這個問題。台積電的技術是領先的技術,這就是為什麼甚至加密貨幣挖礦也大量使用台積電技術。但我不知道——我無法評論這個特定市場領域在我們的收入中所佔的百分比是多少。但是,我可以說,今天的加密貨幣挖礦比兩三年前更成熟。而且這個市場依然動盪。不過,我們將繼續與該領域的客戶密切合作。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Brett? And do you have a second question?
好的,布雷特?您還有第二個問題嗎?
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Yes, I did.
是的,我做到了。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Yes. I'm sorry.
是的。對不起。
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Yes. I wanted -- yes. I wanted to talk about the inventory levels at TSMC at present. It grew quite significantly. And I think you mentioned that it was N5 related. Now many of your smartphone customers are staying they have shortages at leading edge and you're building inventories at 5-nanometer. So how do we reconcile that?
是的。我想要——是的。我想談談目前台積電的庫存水準。它增長得相當顯著。我認為您提到它與 N5 有關。現在,您的許多智慧型手機客戶都面臨著前沿技術短缺的問題,而您正在建立 5 奈米的庫存。那我們該如何調和這一點呢?
And then just looking at Q2, would you expect inventories to rise again in the June quarter?
然後僅看第二季度,您是否預計 6 月份季度庫存會再次上升?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Brett, so you're asking about TSMC's inventory days, right? And so Brett is asking what is leading to the increase in the inventory days at the end of first quarter. And then how do we expect this to trend in the second quarter?
好的。布雷特,所以你問的是台積電的庫存天數,對嗎?因此,布雷特詢問是什麼原因導致第一季末庫存天數增加。那我們預計第二季的趨勢如何?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay, Brett. We prebuild for our customers during seasonal low level as we did before. Now when we start to ramp in the higher season, the inventory usually come down naturally as before.
好的,布雷特。我們像以前一樣在季節性低迷時期為客戶進行預建。現在,當我們開始在旺季增加產量時,庫存通常會像以前一樣自然下降。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Does that answer your question?
好的。這回答了你的問題嗎?
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett Simpson - Senior Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Great. Perfect. Thanks, Brett.
偉大的。完美的。謝謝,布雷特。
Operator
Operator
Now please welcome Roland Shu from Citigroup.
現在有請花旗集團的 Roland Shu。
Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research
Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research
My first question is also for this $100 billion CapEx. Can you clarify, is this year's CapEx of $30 billion included in this $100 billion or not?
我的第一個問題也是針對這 1000 億美元的資本支出。您能否澄清一下,今年的 300 億美元資本支出是否包含在這 1000 億美元中?
And also, I use your long-term capital intensity target. Last time, you said long-term is 3 to 5 years. And then I used this about $30 billion CapEx maybe in 2024. Then it implies your revenue in 2024 will likely to exceed $90 billion or even bigger, which is more than double than 2020's level.
而且,我還使用了您的長期資本密集度目標。上次您說長期是3到5年。然後我大概在 2024 年使用了約 300 億美元的資本支出。那麼就意味著你在2024年的收入可能會超過900億美元甚至更多,比2020年的水準成長一倍以上。
So my question is, are there any challenges to you to recruit and train up enough amount of the talents to support such a fast growth for you going forward?
所以我的問題是,在招募和培養足夠數量的人才以支持未來如此快速的成長方面,你們面臨什麼挑戰嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Let me summarize your questions, Roland. So first, Roland is asking this $100 billion CapEx. Does this include 2021 of around $30 billion?
好的。讓我來總結一下你的問題,羅蘭。首先,羅蘭要求這 1000 億美元的資本支出。這包括 2021 年的約 300 億美元嗎?
And then he's asking about if we look at the longer-term capital intensity, what does this kind of imply for 2024 and '25 CapEx and capital intensity?
然後他問道,如果我們看一下長期資本強度,這對 2024 年和 2025 年的資本支出和資本強度意味著什麼?
And then another part is that with this pace of growth, how do we recruit the talent to support our operations?
另一部分是,在這種成長速度下,我們如何招募人才來支持我們的營運?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Roland, yes, $100 billion include this year's CapEx. And we've talked about the 3-year, $100 billion, '21, '22 and '23. The capital intensity, I think, as I said earlier, you can probably do some calculation and have a feeling about the capital intensity in those 3 years. Longer term, we do see that the capital intensity will go back to about mid-30s level at this moment.
羅蘭,是的,1000 億美元包括今年的資本支出。我們已經討論了 3 年、1000 億美元、21、22 和 23 年的計劃。資本密集度,我想,正如我之前所說,您可能可以做一些計算,並對這三年的資本密集度有一個了解。從長期來看,我們確實看到資本密集度目前將回升至 35% 左右的水平。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
And his second question is then how do we recruit talent to support our growth.
他的第二個問題是,我們如何招募人才來支持我們的發展。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Roland, this is a very good question. Very good question. The talent people recruiting is one of our top priorities in recent years. And fortunately, we have communicated with the government and get Taiwan government's strong support. So they are now pushing for a new program to hire -- not to hire, to actually to allure the students to be in the semiconductor area, major in this area.
羅蘭,這是一個非常好的問題。非常好的問題。人才引進是近年來我院工作的重中之重。而且幸運的是,我們已經與政府溝通,並且得到台灣政府的大力支持。因此,他們現在正在推動一項新的招聘計劃——不是為了招聘,而是為了吸引學生進入半導體領域,並主修該領域。
And internally, TSMC also have a very robust system. Right now, we just established to train all the newcomer and all the new engineer to be more -- they can grow faster.
而在內部,台積電也擁有非常健全的體系。目前,我們剛開始培訓所有新員工和新工程師,以便他們可以更快成長。
So externally, we got the help from government. Internally, we do our own part also to enhance the training. And that's the way that we try to meet the requirement of enough talent people inside TSMC.
因此,從外部來看,我們得到了政府的幫助。在內部,我們也盡自己的努力加強培訓。這就是我們努力滿足台積電內部對足夠人才的需求的方式。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Roland. I think that was...
好的。謝謝你,羅蘭。我認為那是...
Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research
Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research
Yes. This actually is one question.
是的。這實際上是一個問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
That's 2 questions, Roland, okay. Roland, we're happy to have you get back in the queue.
這是兩個問題,羅蘭,好的。羅蘭,我們很高興您能再次加入隊列。
Operator
Operator
Next one for question is Andrew Lu from Sinolink Securities.
下一個提問的是國金證券的陸先生。
Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst
Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst
Yes. My first question is can we know what kind of percentage capacity increase on 8-inch specialty foundry and 12-inch mature -- 12-inch advanced for the next 3 years? Maybe just the average will be fine.
是的。我的第一個問題是,我們能否知道未來 3 年 8 吋專業代工和 12 吋成熟 - 12 吋先進代工的產能將增加多少百分比?也許只要平均值就夠了。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Andrew's first question is on the capacity increase. He wants to know, in the next 3 years, how much capacity are we increasing on 8-inch and then how much capacity are we increasing on the 12-inch.
好的。安德魯的第一個問題是關於產能增加的問題。他想知道,在未來 3 年內,我們將在 8 吋上增加多少產能,然後在 12 吋上增加多少產能。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Andrew, let me share with you, we don't disclose that kind of details. But basically, 80% of the CapEx will be spent in advanced technology, about 10% in advanced packaging and mask making and another 10% in specialty technologies.
安德魯,讓我與你分享一下,我們不會透露那種細節。但基本上,80% 的資本支出將用於先進技術,約 10% 用於先進封裝和掩模製造,另外 10% 用於專業技術。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
In the next 3 years.
在未來3年內。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
In the next 3 years.
未來3年內。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Andrew, do you have a second question?
好的。安德魯,你還有第二個問題嗎?
Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst
Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst
Yes. I do have the second question, but the first question doesn't really answer. So can I have 2 more?
是的。我確實有第二個問題,但第一個問題並沒有真正回答。那我可以再要 2 個嗎?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
No. We do not comment on the capacity by 8-inch or 12-inch, I think, Wendell has just said.
不。我認為我們不會對 8 英寸或 12 英寸的容量進行評論,溫德爾剛才說道。
Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst
Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst
Okay. Okay. Then second question is not related to price. Assuming the next year, our rebate to the customer has been removed. What kind of percentage -- additional growth we should factor into our model?
好的。好的。那麼第二個問題與價格無關。假設明年,我們給客戶的回扣取消了。我們應該將什麼樣的百分比──額外成長納入我們的模型中?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Andrew's second question is assuming next year that the rebates have been removed, how much will this drive additional growth in next year and how should he factor this into his model.
好的。因此,安德魯的第二個問題是,假設明年取消退稅,這將在多大程度上推動明年的額外成長,以及他應該如何將其納入他的模型中。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
What is kind of pricing is strictly confidential between TSMC and TSMC's customer. So I don't think that we can comment on that one, whether it's rebate, whether it's any other activities.
究竟是什麼樣的定價,是台積電和台積電客戶之間嚴格保密的。因此,我認為我們無法對此發表評論,無論是回扣還是其他活動。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Next one to ask question, Sunny Lin from UBS.
下一個提問的是瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
So my first question is also on CapEx. So when you plan for CapEx for this year and next few years, do you think the equipment supply could be a potential bottleneck in terms of the additional upside that you can spend? Well, I think several equipment makers have mentioned that based on this year's industry CapEx, they are already -- extreme supply tightness, especially for EUV. So any color would be appreciated.
所以我的第一個問題也是關於資本支出的。那麼,當您規劃今年和未來幾年的資本支出時,您是否認為設備供應可能會成為您可以支出的額外收益的潛在瓶頸?嗯,我認為有幾家設備製造商已經提到,根據今年的行業資本支出,他們的供應已經極度緊張,尤其是 EUV。因此,任何顏色都會受到歡迎。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Sunny's first question is that with our CapEx plan, do we see or face any equipment bottlenecks in terms of securing the tools and equipment. And I think part of your question is also particularly with regards to EUV.
好的。因此,Sunny 的第一個問題是,根據我們的資本支出計劃,我們在確保工具和設備安全方面是否遇到或面臨任何設備瓶頸。我認為您的問題的一部分也特別與 EUV 有關。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Well, let me answer the question. In fact, when we plan $100 billion CapEx, we also work closely with our suppliers and -- to prepare in advance. So we don't expect -- certainly, we don't expect any bottleneck, whether it is EUV or not and actually we work closely with them.
好吧,讓我來回答這個問題。事實上,當我們計劃 1000 億美元的資本支出時,我們也會與供應商密切合作並提前做好準備。所以我們不希望——當然,我們不希望出現任何瓶頸,無論是否是 EUV,實際上我們與他們密切合作。
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Got it. Right. So would it be fair to assume that when you announced this $100 billion CapEx for next 3 years, it's already -- you already have a commitment from your suppliers?
知道了。正確的。那麼,是否可以公平地假設,當您宣布未來 3 年 1000 億美元的資本支出時,您已經獲得了供應商的承諾?
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
The answer is yes.
答案是肯定的。
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst
Got it. My second question is 3-nanometer. Now we are just about a year before the mass production in second half of 2022. So at this point, how should we think about the revenue contribution in its first year of commercial production? I think for 5- and 7-nanometer, they could get to high single digit of revenue or even close to 10% in first year. So just want to get your thought on that.
知道了。我的第二個問題是3奈米。現在距離 2022 年下半年的量產只有大約一年的時間了。那麼現在,我們該如何看待其商業化生產第一年的收入貢獻呢?我認為,對於 5 奈米和 7 奈米來說,他們第一年的收入可以達到個位數的高位,甚至接近 10%。所以只是想聽聽你對此的看法。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Sunny's second question is looking at 3-nanometer. And with the schedule for production, how should we think about the revenue contribution from 3-nanometer in its first year?
好的。所以 Sunny 的第二個問題是關於 3 奈米的。那麼按照生產計劃,我們該如何看待3奈米在第一年的收入貢獻呢?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Sunny, that's too far to talk about that. We will update you later on. That is about 2 or 3 years away, yes. But we do expect it's big and long-lasting nodes, just like the former N5.
Sunny,談論這個太過分了。我們稍後會向您通報最新情況。是的,那大約還需要 2 到 3 年的時間。但我們確實期待它的規模大、節點長,就像以前的 N5 一樣。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Sunny.
好的。謝謝你,Sunny。
Operator
Operator
Right now, we have Laura Chen from KGI.
現在我們請到的是凱基證券的 Laura Chen。
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Yes. My first question is still same -- similar to previous question about inventory days and inventory level. I think both Wendell and C.C. mentioned already that high inventory probably will proceed for a while. But in what level we may start to worry about that? Or what would be the checking point? Because so far, we all know that the demand outlook and TSMC's -- and particularly in the advanced node are quite tight. But what would be the checking point we closely follow? That's my first question.
是的。我的第一個問題還是一樣的——類似於之前關於庫存天數和庫存水準的問題。我認為 Wendell 和 C.C. 都已經提到高庫存可能會持續一段時間。但我們到了什麼程度才會開始擔心這個問題呢?或檢查點是什麼?因為到目前為止,我們都知道需求前景和台積電的——特別是在先進節點上——相當緊張。但是我們密切關注的檢查點是什麼?這是我的第一個問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Laura's first question is with regards to inventory and inventory levels. She understands the demand is tight. But do we worry about the inventory levels? What are the type of checking points that we would look at.
好的。因此,勞拉的第一個問題是關於庫存和庫存水準。她知道需求很緊張。但我們是否擔心庫存水準?我們會查看哪些類型的檢查點。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Well, let me answer that question. Yes, I did say that our customer want to secure the supply, actually, at this moment. That's due to some imbalance in the supply chain. And they are preparing for the future also.
好吧,讓我來回答這個問題。是的,我確實說過,實際上,目前我們的客戶想要確保供應。這是由於供應鏈中存在一些不平衡所造成的。他們也正在為未來做準備。
But how we are going to do to test this, what is the checking point, actually let me say that we are working with our customer closely. It's not daily, it's at least that we check very often. And we make sure that all the demand to TSMC has been secured, and we prepare the capacity for that.
但是我們將如何測試這一點,檢查點是什麼,實際上,我想說我們正在與客戶密切合作。雖然不是每天,但至少我們會經常檢查。我們確保台積電的所有需求都得到滿足,並為此做好產能準備。
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Okay. And my second question is also about the mature node. I think C.C. mentioned about some specialty design, special technology for mature node. I recall you mentioned before about the CIS progress and also the gallium nitride progress. Can you give me more update or some special technology you are working now with the mature node, which may be the expansion in the next few years?
好的。我的第二個問題也是關於成熟節點的。我認為 C.C. 提到了一些針對成熟節點的特殊設計、特殊技術。我記得您之前提到過 CIS 的進展以及氮化鎵的進展。您能否給我更多更新資訊或一些您目前正在使用的成熟節點的特殊技術,這些技術可能會在未來幾年內擴展?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Laura's second question is looking at the mature notes and that C.C. mentioned that our strategy is to work with customers to develop specialty technologies at those mature nodes. So she is wondering if we can give little more examples of what types of specialty technologies. Is that correct, Laura?
好的。因此,勞拉的第二個問題是查看成熟的註釋,C.C. 提到我們的策略是與客戶合作,在那些成熟的節點上開發專業技術。所以她想知道我們是否可以提供更多關於專業技術類型的例子。對嗎,勞拉?
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Yes. And also FD-SOI as well, if it's possible.
是的。如果可能的話,還有 FD-SOI。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
And FD-SOI in other areas.
以及其他領域的FD-SOI。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Well, let me answer the last one first. We don't work on the FD-SOI per se. But we develop the specialty technology for CMOS image sensor, as I mentioned previously, and the technology continue to improve because if you look at the application of the CMOS image sensor in the smartphone, in the automotive, there are a lot, okay? And we also -- in fact, the most important one also is ultra-low power that we develop the technology to meet the requirement of the mobile world. I mean that everything is portable. So ultra-low power is very important.
好吧,讓我先回答最後一個問題。我們本身並沒有從事 FD-SOI 的工作。但是,正如我之前提到的,我們開發了 CMOS 影像感測器的專用技術,而且該技術還在不斷改進,因為如果你看看 CMOS 影像感測器在智慧型手機、汽車中的應用,就會發現有很多,對吧?事實上,最重要的一點也是超低功耗,我們開發的技術可以滿足行動世界的需求。我的意思是一切都是可移植的。所以超低功耗非常重要。
Gallium nitride, all those kind of specialty, we continue to work with our customer, and for the future, high-frequency application or the high-voltage applications.
氮化鎵以及所有這些專業領域,我們將繼續與客戶合作,並著眼於未來的高頻應用或高壓應用。
We also work on the RF technology. Radio frequencies is important because of 5G's era. The RF become fairly, fairly important in application in the WiFi communication area and a lot of them.
我們也致力於射頻技術的研究。由於5G時代的到來,無線電頻率變得非常重要。RF 在 WiFi 通訊領域等許多應用中變得相當重要。
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
Laura Chen - Research Analyst
So following that question, do we have space or any capacity to further expand those technology here in Taiwan?
那麼問題來了,台灣是否有空間或能力進一步擴展這些技術?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
So Laura is asking then will space be a constraint or limitation for the specialty.
那麼勞拉問的是,空間是否會成為專業的限製或限制。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Good question. We are working with our customer to expand our capacity whenever necessary.
好問題。我們正在與客戶合作,在必要時擴大我們的產能。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Okay. Right. Thank you, Laura.
好的。好的。正確的。謝謝你,勞拉。
Operator
Operator
Next on the line is Rick Hsu from Daiwa Securities.
下一位是來自大和證券的 Rick Hsu。
Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research
Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research
Yes. I just got one question here. I think your top -- regarding your second quarter guidance. The revenue is going to grow sequentially in U.S. dollar terms. And also, if I don't remember wrong, Wendell did say that your inventory increase in Q1 was mainly because your customers prebuilt inventory for 5-nanometer. So that assumes that your 5-nanometer contribution will also increase in second quarter.
是的。我這裡只有一個問題。我認為您關於第二季度的指導是最重要的。以美元計算,收入將持續成長。另外,如果我沒記錯的話,溫德爾確實說過,你們第一季的庫存增加主要是因為你們的客戶預先建立了 5 奈米的庫存。因此,這假設您的 5 奈米貢獻在第二季也會增加。
So -- and also the exchange rate, also not getting worse, right?
那麼——匯率也沒有變得更糟,對吧?
So against the backdrop of these 3 positive factors, right, revenue increase, 5-nanometer increase and favorable exchange rate, why your gross margin guidance for the second quarter is below your first quarter.
那麼,在這三個積極因素的背景下,即收入成長、5 奈米成長和有利的匯率,為什麼您對第二季的毛利率預期低於第一季。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Rick's question is looking at the second quarter and looking at the gross margin guidance. Why is it basically lower than the first quarter or is sequential declining if you use the midpoint?
好的。所以 Rick 的問題是查看第二季並查看毛利率指引。為什麼基本上低於第一季度,或者如果使用中點的話,連續下降?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Rick, let me explain to you. The sequential decline is mainly due to mix as the contribution from N5 will increase, but it still carries a dilutive effect. And secondly, we see a slower rate of cost improvement as our fabs continue to run at a very high level of utilization, leaving last time to do cost-improvement activities. And lastly, a more technical thing is the absence of a positive inventory revaluation in the quarter.
好的。里克,讓我向你解釋一下。連續下降主要是由於混合因素,因為 N5 的貢獻將會增加,但它仍然具有稀釋效應。其次,由於我們的晶圓廠繼續以非常高的利用率運行,我們看到成本改善的速度有所放緩,上次進行成本改善活動的時間就被浪費了。最後,更技術性的問題是本季沒有出現積極的庫存重估。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Rick.
好的。謝謝你,里克。
Operator
Operator
Next one to ask questions is Aaron Jeng from Nomura Securities.
下一個提問的是野村證券的 Aaron Jeng。
Aaron Jeng - Lead Sector Analyst for Greater China Semiconductor Research & Head of Taiwan Equity Research
Aaron Jeng - Lead Sector Analyst for Greater China Semiconductor Research & Head of Taiwan Equity Research
This question was not asked before, so I wish to ask before end of the call. You state customers' engagement on N3 and N5 are stronger than what you saw 3 months ago, which drives your $100 billion CapEx for the next 3 years, okay?
這個問題之前沒有人問過,所以我想在通話結束前問一下。您表示,客戶對 N3 和 N5 的參與度比 3 個月前更高,這將推動您未來 3 年 1000 億美元的資本支出,好嗎?
Then let's ask in this way: compared with 3 months ago, are you now projecting a bigger market share gain potential over the next 3 years as pure foundry market and your widening technology leadership at the best now? This is my only question.
那麼讓我們這樣問:與 3 個月前相比,您現在是否預計未來 3 年純代工市場的市場份額將有更大的成長潛力,並且您的技術領先地位也將不斷擴大?這是我唯一的問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay, Aaron. So Aaron's question is looking at the fact that we said customer engagement at 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer are stronger than what we saw a few months ago. So does this mean that we're going to -- expect to gain bigger or larger market share as a result. Is that correct, Aaron?
好的,亞倫。因此,Aaron 的問題是,我們說過 5 奈米和 3 奈米的客戶參與度比幾個月前更強。那麼這是否意味著我們將會——期望獲得更大或更大的市場份額。對嗎,亞倫?
Aaron Jeng - Lead Sector Analyst for Greater China Semiconductor Research & Head of Taiwan Equity Research
Aaron Jeng - Lead Sector Analyst for Greater China Semiconductor Research & Head of Taiwan Equity Research
Yes. And a bigger market share than expected 3 months ago.
是的。且市佔率比三個月前的預期還要大。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Versus 3 months ago.
與三個月前相比。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Okay. Let me answer that question. Certainly, as compared with 3 months ago, we have some progress in engaging with the customer to get their commitment to work with TSMC on 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer. And whether this one is the indication of TSMC's technology leadership, I would happily to say yes. We are continuing -- but the most important thing actually is that we are continuing to work with customer to develop the technology they need for their product. Each customer has a different kind of preference and we always can meet their demand.
好的。讓我來回答這個問題。當然,與三個月前相比,我們在與客戶合作以獲得他們與台積電在 5 奈米和 3 奈米上合作的承諾方面取得了一些進展。無論這是否是台積電技術領先地位的體現,我都很樂意回答是的。我們將繼續——但實際上最重要的是我們將繼續與客戶合作,開發他們的產品所需的技術。每個顧客都有不同的偏好,我們總是能滿足他們的需求。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Aaron.
好的。謝謝你,亞倫。
Operator
Operator
Next one to ask question, Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.
下一個提問的是 Mehdi Hosseini,SIG。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Yes. My first question has to do with some of the comparisons that you provided during last earnings conference call, you were comparing the capital intensity and a growth prospect to the period of 2010 and 2015.
是的。我的第一個問題與您在上次收益電話會議上提供的一些比較有關,您將資本密集度和成長前景與 2010 年和 2015 年期間進行了比較。
In that context, my question has to do with depreciation. Back then during the period of 2010 through 2015, depreciation increased at a growth rate of 20%. How do you see that growth rate changing in the period of 2020 and 2025? And I have a follow-up.
在這種情況下,我的問題與折舊有關。當時,在2010年至2015年期間,折舊以20%的成長率成長。您認為 2020 年至 2025 年期間的成長率將如何變化?我還有一個後續問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Mehdi's first question is looking at, I think, basically, looking at depreciation and looking at as we enter a higher period of growth, what does our depreciation look like. And also, he is asking about the depreciation growth or increase. Given that we expect to grow between 10% to 15% in 2020 to '25 CAGR period, what does the depreciation growth look like this year and then beyond?
好的。因此,我認為,Mehdi 的第一個問題基本上是看折舊,並且看當我們進入更高的增長時期時,我們的折舊情況是什麼樣的。此外,他還詢問了折舊增長或增加的情況。鑑於我們預計 2020 年至 2025 年複合年增長率將達到 10% 至 15%,那麼今年及以後的折舊成長率將會如何?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. I can share with you that the depreciation this year will be around 30% higher than last year. And we are not ready to share with you the rest of the 5-year period depreciation at this moment.
好的。我可以跟大家分享一下,今年的折舊幅度會比去年高出30%左右。目前我們還沒有準備好與您分享剩餘的 5 年期折舊。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Do you have a second question, Mehdi?
好的。你還有第二個問題嗎,Mehdi?
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Okay. Sure. Yes, I have a second question. You raised your CapEx spending, given the increased demand by your customer. But your revenue growth target remains the same at 10% to 15%. Why aren't you raising the revenue target as you're raising the CapEx?
好的。當然。是的,我還有第二個問題。由於客戶需求增加,您提高了資本支出。但您的營收成長目標保持不變,仍為 10% 至 15%。為什麼在增加資本支出的同時不提高收入目標?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So I think Mehdi is asking that we raised the CapEx spending. And so why -- what is our view of the growth target, 10% to 15%? Why are we not raising that as well?
好的。所以我認為 Mehdi 要求我們提高資本支出。那為什麼──我們對成長目標的看法是10%到15%?為什麼我們沒有提出這一點呢?
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Mehdi, actually, if you think about this 10% to 15% 5-year CAGR, it's a pretty big range. From what we currently forecast, the revenue target is still within that range, maybe higher to the -- closer to the higher end than last time.
梅赫迪,實際上,如果你考慮 5 年 10% 到 15% 的複合年增長率,這是一個相當大的範圍。從我們目前的預測來看,收入目標仍然在這個範圍內,可能比上次更高,更接近高端。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Mehdi. Thank you.
好的。謝謝你,邁赫迪。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Now we have Randy Abrams from Crédit Suisse.
現在我們請到瑞士信貸的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Okay. Yes. The first one on the back end, that's keeping pace. Could you give an update on the spending and momentum you're seeing for the new SoIC and then also how the CoWoS and InFO are progressing?
好的。是的。後端的第一個,保持同步。您能否介紹一下新 SoIC 的支出和發展勢頭,以及 CoWoS 和 InFO 的進展?
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Randy's first question is on our advanced packaging solutions. He wants to know -- want an update on how SoIC is progressing as well as CoWoS and the other solutions. Is that right, Randy?
好的。因此,Randy 的第一個問題是關於我們先進的封裝解決方案。他想知道——想要了解 SoIC 以及 CoWoS 和其他解決方案的進展。是這樣的嗎,蘭迪?
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Yes. That's correct.
是的。沒錯。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay.
好的。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Okay. Let me comment on the SoIC first. This is the most advanced back-end technology, I think, that we offer to our customer. And it will start to small volume production in 2022. And it's also actually adopted by very high-performance HPC applications.
好的。讓我先評論一下 SoIC。我認為這是我們為客戶提供的最先進的後端技術。並將於2022年開始小批量生產。它實際上也被高效能 HPC 應用程式所採用。
As for InFO and CoWoS, we continue to expand our customer portfolio. And I expect that the business from InFO and CoWoS will start to -- will continue to increase in the next several years.
至於 InFO 和 CoWoS,我們將繼續擴大我們的客戶組合。我預計,InFO 和 CoWoS 的業務將在未來幾年開始持續成長。
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Okay. Great. And just I have one quick one on that. You mentioned very high-performance applications. SoIC, in a couple of years, as it ramps, should that be a big -- like also, do you expect a pretty big ramp like we saw in the past for InFO or it should be a good volume runner for TSMC?
好的。偉大的。關於這一點我只想簡單說一下。您提到了性能非常高的應用程式。SoIC,在未來幾年內,隨著它的增長,這應該是一個很大的——同樣,你是否預計它會像我們過去看到的 InFO 那樣出現一個相當大的增長,或者它應該成為台積電的一個良好的產量跑者?
And then I wanted to ask a second question. Just a couple of clarification on gross margin in second half. 5 will be getting more mature. So I'm curious, factoring your depreciation guidance, 5 getting more mature, if your view is 50% gross margin or if you're running very tight utilization, we may be able to stay a bit above the long-term range in the second half.
然後我想問第二個問題。只需對下半年的毛利率進行幾點澄清。5將會越來越成熟。所以我很好奇,考慮到您的折舊指導,5變得更加成熟,如果您認為毛利率為 50%,或者您的利用率非常嚴格,我們可能能夠在下半年保持略高於長期範圍。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So a quick one. He wants -- Randy wants to know SoIC, will it be a large contributor? How large can it be in a few years' time? And then also on gross margin, the gross margin outlook for second half.
好的。所以很快。他想要——蘭迪想要知道 SoIC 會是一個大貢獻者嗎?幾年後它能變得多大?然後還有毛利率,下半年的毛利率前景。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
We hope that SoIC going to be adopted by all those HPC applications customer. But I cannot nail down what is the specific revenue number in the future. But we do expect our back-end service will continue to grow. And the rate -- the growth rate will be a little bit higher than the corporate average.
我們希望 SoIC 能夠被所有 HPC 應用程式客戶採用。但我無法確定未來具體的收入數字是多少。但我們確實預計我們的後端服務將繼續成長。而且成長率將略高於企業平均。
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Wendell Huang - VP & CFO
Okay. Randy, about second half gross margin, it's a bit too early to give details on that. However, you've already mentioned several things. N5 will become bigger in contribution to the revenue. It still has -- carries a negative or dilutive effect on the margins, about 2 to 3 percentage points. Utilization is pretty -- still pretty tight. And we continue trying to improve our cost under this very high-utilization environment. So that's all the things we can share with you at this moment.
好的。蘭迪,關於下半年的毛利率,現在透露細節還為時過早。但是,您已經提到了幾件事。N5對收入的貢獻將會越來越大。它仍然會對利潤率產生負面或稀釋作用,大約 2 到 3 個百分點。利用率相當——仍然相當緊張。我們將繼續努力在這種高利用率的環境下改善我們的成本。這就是我們現在可以與你們分享的所有內容。
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department
Okay. And if I can fit in...
好的。如果我能適應的話…
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Sorry, Randy. I'm sorry, that's 2 questions because we're -- yes, thank you.
抱歉,蘭迪。抱歉,我們有 2 個問題,因為我們 — — 是的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Okay. The next one will be Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.
好的。下一位是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
My first question is how should we think about HPC in terms of the demand cadence for second and third wave? I think when smartphone was our big growth driver in the last 10 years, we had leading-edge growth from processors, et cetera, but we also had a lot of other ICs in smartphones as well as our applications, which drove the second, third, fourth wave of demand for any process node.
我的第一個問題是,我們該如何從第二波和第三波的需求節奏來看 HPC?我認為,在過去 10 年裡,當智慧型手機成為我們最大的成長動力時,我們在處理器等方面實現了領先的成長,但我們在智慧型手機和應用程式中也有很多其他積體電路,這推動了對任何製程節點的第二波、第三波、第四波需求。
So now that HPC seems to be one of the key drivers for growth, how do we think about second-, third-wave demand? Would it keep up with the first and second wave for N5, N3, et cetera? Or should we think about TSMC will be doing more capacity conversion compared to in the past? That's my first question.
那麼,既然 HPC 似乎已成為成長的關鍵驅動力之一,我們如何看待第二波、第三波需求?它會跟上 N5、N3 等的第一波和第二波嗎?或者說台積電會比過去進行更多的產能轉換?這是我的第一個問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. So Gokul's first question is looking at HPC and looking at how HPC is also, along with smartphone, becoming the first-wave adopters of our leading-edge nodes. He's wondering then, though, for the second and additional waves of demand, will HPC -- how do we see HPC driving additional waves of demand or will we convert capacity.
好的。因此,Gokul 的第一個問題是研究 HPC,以及研究 HPC 如何與智慧型手機一起成為我們前沿節點的首批採用者。不過,他想知道,對於第二波及後續的需求,HPC 是否會——我們如何看待 HPC 推動後續的需求浪潮,或者我們是否會轉換產能。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Let me make some comment. Actually, the HPC application includes many different subsegment such as CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerator, video gaming, et cetera, et cetera. And each one will have their own migration path and product life cycle also.
請允許我發表一些評論。實際上,HPC 應用包含許多不同的子部分,例如 CPU、GPU、網路、FPGA、AI 加速器、電玩遊戲等等。且每個產品都有自己的遷移路徑和產品生命週期。
So we expect to see HPC, not only in the first wave, but in additional waves of demand to support our leading node in the future, actually. Did that answer your questions?
因此,我們預計不僅在第一波中看到 HPC,而且實際上在未來的其他需求浪潮中也會看到 HPC,以支援我們領先的節點。這回答了你的問題嗎?
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Okay. That's clear.
好的。這很清楚。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Do you have a second question?
您還有第二個問題嗎?
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst
Second question, just wanted to -- yes. Just wanted to follow up on any thoughts from TSMC on the Arizona fab capacity. I think you've already announced 20,000 of wafers per month of 5-nanometer coming up in 2024. What has been your discussion with customers regarding any potential upside to this capacity? Are customers asking for more capacity there?
第二個問題,只是想──是的。只是想了解台積電對亞利桑那州晶圓廠產能的看法。我認為您已經宣布將在 2024 年每月生產 20,000 片 5 奈米晶圓。您與客戶討論過這種容量的潛在優勢嗎?客戶是否要求增加容量?
Do you feel that we -- right now, this seems more like an n-1 cadence because 5-nano started in Taiwan in 2020 already. Do we feel that we will move to a more -- shorter or a quicker cadence for leading edge in, let's say, Arizona or U.S. capacity? I just wanted to understand how TSMC is thinking about this right now.
您是否覺得我們現在看起來更像是 n-1 節奏,因為 5 奈米技術早在 2020 年就已在台灣開始應用。我們是否覺得,我們將以更短或更快的節奏來佔據領先地位,比如說亞利桑那州或美國的產能?我只是想了解台積電現在對此有何看法。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Gokul's second question is on our U.S. manufacturing and our fab in Arizona. He wants to know that our customer is asking for more capacity or more production.
好的。Gokul 的第二個問題是關於我們在美國的製造以及我們在亞利桑那州的工廠。他想知道我們的客戶是否要求增加產能或增加產量。
And also, we start with N5, I guess your question is what about the future plans for bringing additional technologies there and the cadence.
而且,我們從 N5 開始,我想您的問題是未來在那裡引入其他技術的計劃和節奏如何。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
Okay. We are executing our plan in Arizona according to the schedule and construction will start this year. Phase 1 production, as you said, we are starting 2024 with a 20,000 wafer per month 5-nanometer technology. But in fact, we have acquired a large piece of land in Arizona to provide flexibility. So further expansion is possible, but we will ramp up to Phase 1 first, then based on the operation efficiency and cost economics and also the customers' demand to decide what the next steps we are going to do.
好的。我們正在亞利桑那州按計劃實施,今年將開始建設。第一階段的生產,正如您所說,我們將從 2024 年開始,並採用每月 20,000 片 5 奈米技術生產晶圓。但事實上,我們已經在亞利桑那州獲得了一大片土地,以提供靈活性。因此進一步擴張是可能的,但我們將首先進入第一階段,然後根據營運效率和成本經濟性以及客戶的需求來決定下一步要做什麼。
Our customers welcome us to build capacity in the U.S., and our fab in Arizona will be available to support all our customers from around the world and just like other -- all the TSMC's fab, no matter where they are and no matter where they're located.
我們的客戶歡迎我們在美國建立產能,我們在亞利桑那州的晶圓廠將為來自世界各地的所有客戶提供支持,就像其他所有台積電的晶圓廠一樣,無論他們身在何處,位於何處。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Yes. The last one to ask question, Sebastian Hou, CLSA.
是的。最後一個提問的是里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Yes. I only have one question. So just a follow-up on C.C.'s comments earlier, that C.C. mentioned that TSMC has been working closely with the customer to analyze the gap between capacity and demand on the trailing-edge nodes.
是的。我只有一個問題。因此,我只是想跟進一下 C.C. 之前的評論,C.C. 提到台積電一直與客戶密切合作,分析後緣節點的產能和需求之間的差距。
So wondering if you could share some color with us. If we exclude the overbooking portion and based on your best analysis, does the demand still significantly exceed supply? And how big is the gap, if you have any rough number that can be shared?
所以想知道您是否可以與我們分享一些顏色。如果我們排除超額預訂部分,並根據您的最佳分析,需求是否仍然大大超過供應?差距到底有多大?能提供一下大概的數字嗎?
Furthermore, based on the CapEx you and your peers are investing in the capacity expansion lead time, when do you think the tightness can be eased or the whole shortage situation can be removed? That's the only question I have.
此外,根據您和您的同行在產能擴張前置時間上投入的資本支出,您認為何時可以緩解緊張局面或消除整個短缺狀況?這是我唯一的問題。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Let me try to summarize your question, Sebastian. You're asking, on the mature nodes, the fact that TSMC works with our customers very closely, but also in looking at the supply/demand of those older nodes. So with the additional capacity added, will -- when and will we eventually see an easing of the supply tightness at the mature nodes? Is that correct, Sebastian?
好的。讓我試著總結一下你的問題,塞巴斯蒂安。您問的是,在成熟節點上,台積電與我們的客戶密切合作,同時也關注那些舊節點的供需情況。那麼,隨著額外產能的增加,我們何時才能最終看到成熟節點的供應緊張狀況得到緩解?對嗎,塞巴斯蒂安?
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Yes. And also, if you can, if we exclude the overbooking part, with your best estimate, whether the demand is still exceeding supply right now.
是的。另外,如果可以的話,如果我們排除超額預訂部分,根據您的最佳估計,目前需求是否仍然超過供應。
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
All right. To be frank with you, as I said, we work with customer closely. And so the overbooking is not in our calculation, although we did not exclude it out of this possibility. But we do the very detailed analysis internally, and as I said, work with customer closely. And so we prepare the mature node capacity for them.
好的。坦白說,正如我所說,我們與客戶密切合作。因此,超額預訂不在我們的計算範圍內,儘管我們並沒有排除這種可能性。但我們在內部進行了非常詳細的分析,正如我所說,與客戶密切合作。因此我們為他們準備了成熟的節點容量。
However, building a fab from a green fab start and also to install the capacity, it won't be available until 2023. And so this year and next year, I still expect the capacity tightness will continue and probably also next year. 2023, I hope that we can offer more capacity to support our customers. And at that time, we start to see the supply chains tightness will release a little bit.
然而,從綠色工廠開始建造工廠並安裝產能,要到2023年才能實現。因此,我仍然預計今年和明年產能緊張的局面將持續下去,明年可能也是如此。2023年,我希望我們能夠提供更多的能力來支持我們的客戶。到那時,我們就會開始看到供應鏈緊張狀況會有所緩解。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Sebastian, does that answer your question?
好的。賽巴斯蒂安,這回答了你的問題嗎?
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst
Yes. So is it fair for us to conclude that in the next 18 months, it is very safe to assume that we will still be in the supply tight situation, is that right?
是的。那麼,我們是否可以公平地得出結論:在未來 18 個月內,我們可以非常安全地假設我們仍然會處於供應緊張的局面,對嗎?
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
C. C. Wei - President & CEO
For our customers, we are working with them, let me say that. But it's still very tight. Yes, you are right.
對於我們的客戶,我們正在與他們合作,讓我這麼說。但還是很緊。是的你是對的。
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Jeff Su - Director of IR
Okay. Thank you, Sebastian. This concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now and the transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.
好的。謝謝你,賽巴斯蒂安。我們的問答環節到此結束。在我們結束今天的會議之前,請注意,會議重播將在 4 小時內提供,會議記錄將在 24 小時內提供,兩者都可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。
So thank you for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe, and we hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.
感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都能保持健康和安全,並希望您在下個季度再次加入我們。再見,祝你有美好的一天。