台積電 ADR (TSM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

（外語）大家下午好，歡迎來到台積電2021年第一季度財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係總監、今天的主持人 Jeff Su。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call live via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將通過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 通過實時音頻網絡直播主持我們的收益電話會議，您還可以在該網站下載收益發布材料。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥入線路處於只聽模式。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the first quarter 2021 followed by our guidance for the second quarter 2021.

首先，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德先生將總結我們在 2021 年第一季度的運營情況，然後是我們對 2021 年第二季度的指導。

Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，黃先生與台積電總裁C.C.魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then we will open the line for Q&A.

然後我們將打開問答線。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含具有重大風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將電話轉給台積電的首席財務官黃文德先生，以獲取運營摘要和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the first quarter 2021.

我的演講將從 2021 年第一季度的財務亮點開始。

After that, I will provide the guidance for the second quarter 2021.

之後，我將為 2021 年第二季度提供指導。

First quarter revenue increased 0.2% sequentially in NT dollars or 1.9% in U.S. dollars.

第一季度收入按新台幣計算環比增長 0.2%，按美元計算增長 1.9%。

Our first quarter business was supported by HPC-related demand, balanced by a milder smartphone seasonality than in recent years.

我們第一季度的業務受到 HPC 相關需求的支持，但智能手機的季節性比近年來溫和。

Gross margin decreased 1.6 percentage points sequentially to 52.4%, mainly due to relatively lower level of capacity utilization and an unfavorable foreign exchange rate.

毛利率環比下降 1.6 個百分點至 52.4%，主要是由於產能利用率相對較低以及匯率不利。

Total operating expenses slightly increased by TWD 0.8 billion, mainly due to higher level of R&D activities for the N5 family.

總營業費用微增 8 億元新台幣，主要是由於 N5 家族的研發活動較高。

Therefore, operating margin decreased by 2 percentage points sequentially to 41.5%.

因此，營業利潤率環比下降 2 個百分點至 41.5%。

Overall, our first quarter EPS was TWD 5.39, and ROE was 29.5%.

總體而言，我們第一季度每股收益為 5.39 新台幣，ROE 為 29.5%。

Now let's move on to revenue by technology.

現在讓我們轉向技術收入。

5-nanometer process technology contributed 14% of wafer revenue in the first quarter, while 7-nanometer accounted for 35%.

第一季度5納米工藝技術貢獻了14%的晶圓收入，而7納米則佔了35%。

Advanced technologies, which we now define as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 49% of wafer revenue.

我們現在定義為 7 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 49%。

Now moving on to revenue by platform.

現在轉向平台收入。

Smartphone decreased 11% quarter-over-quarter to account for 45% of our first quarter revenue.

智能手機環比下降 11%，占我們第一季度收入的 45%。

HPC increased [14% to account for 35%.

HPC 增加 [14% 到 35%。

IoT increased 10% to account for 9%.

物聯網增長了 10%，佔 9%。

Automotive increased 31% to account for 4%.

汽車增長 31%，佔 4%。

DCE increased 11%] (corrected by company after the call) to account for 4%.

大商所上漲 11%]（由公司在電話會議後更正）佔 4%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 797 billion.

我們在第一季度結束時的現金和有價證券為 7,970 億新台幣。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 45 billion, mainly due to the increase of TWD 49 billion in short-term loans, an increase of TWD 50 billion in accrued liabilities and others, partially offset by the decrease of TWD 51 billion in accounts payable.

負債方面，流動負債增加450億新台幣，主要是短期貸款增加490億新台幣，應計負債增加500億新台幣及其他，部分被2019年減少510億新台幣所抵消。應付賬款。

Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD 23 billion, mainly as we raised TWD 21.1 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter.

長期有息債務增加了 230 億新台幣，主要是因為我們在本季度籌集了 211 億新台幣的公司債券。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 1 day to 40 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數增加 1 天至 40 天。

Days of inventory increased 10 days to 83 days, primarily due to N5 wafer prebuild.

庫存天數增加 10 天至 83 天，主要是由於 N5 晶圓預構建。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 228 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 248 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 65 billion for second quarter 2020 cash dividend.

在第一季度，我們從運營中產生了約 2,280 億新台幣的現金，在資本支出中花費了 2,480 億新台幣，並為 2020 年第二季度的現金股息分配了 650 億新台幣。

Short-term loans increased by TWD 52 billion, while bonds payable increased by TWD 18.5 billion due to the bond issuance.

短期貸款增加520億新台幣，應付債券因發行債券增加185億新台幣。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 4.6 billion to TWD 665 billion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，我們的現金餘額在本季度末增加了 46 億新台幣至 6,650 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditures totaled $8.8 billion.

以美元計算，我們第一季度的資本支出總計 88 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to our second quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向我們的第二季度指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between USD 12.9 billion and USD 13.2 billion, which represents a 1% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第二季度收入將在 129 億美元至 132 億美元之間，中點環比增長 1%。

This revenue guidance includes the minor impact from the power outage that occurred yesterday at our Fab 14 in Tainan.

該收入指引包括昨天在台南 Fab 14 發生的停電造成的輕微影響。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 28.4, gross margin is expected to be between 49.5% and 51.5%, operating margin between 38.5% and 40.5%.

基於1美元兌28.4新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在49.5%至51.5%之間，營業利潤率在38.5%至40.5%之間。

The sequential decline in second quarter gross margin is mainly due to the margin dilution from higher 5-nanometer contribution, the slower rate of cost improvement as our fabs continue to run at a very high level of utilization and the absence of positive inventory revaluation.

第二季度毛利率的連續下降主要是由於更高的 5 納米貢獻導致的利潤率稀釋、由於我們的晶圓廠繼續以非常高的利用率運行而成本改善速度較慢以及沒有積極的庫存重估。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Now let me turn to our key messages.

現在讓我談談我們的關鍵信息。

I will start with our near-term demand and inventory.

我將從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。

We concluded our first quarter with revenue of TWD 362.4 billion or USD 12.9 billion, which was in line with our guidance.

我們第一季度的收入為 3624 億新台幣或 129 億美元，符合我們的預期。

The slight sequential increase was mainly driven by HPC-related demand, balanced by a milder smartphone seasonality than in recent years.

環比小幅增長主要是由高性能計算相關需求推動的，而智能手機的季節性比近年來溫和。

Moving into second quarter 2021, we expect our revenue to be flattish as HPC-related demand will continue to grow, offset by smartphone seasonality.

進入 2021 年第二季度，我們預計我們的收入將持平，因為與 HPC 相關的需求將繼續增長，被智能手機的季節性所抵消。

On the inventory front, our fabless customers' overall inventory was healthy exiting fourth quarter of 2020.

在庫存方面，截至 2020 年第四季度，我們的無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存狀況良好。

Amidst the lingering macro and supply uncertainties, we expect our customers and the supply chain to gradually prepare higher levels of inventory throughout the year as compared to the historical seasonal level.

在宏觀和供應不確定性揮之不去的情況下，我們預計我們的客戶和供應鏈將在全年逐步準備比歷史季節性水平更高的庫存水平。

We expect this to persist for a period of time given the industry's continued need to ensure supply security.

鑑於該行業持續需要確保供應安全，我們預計這將持續一段時間。

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect our capacity to remain tight throughout the year supported by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced and special technology.

展望下半年，我們預計在對我們行業領先的先進和特殊技術的強勁需求的支持下，我們的產能將在全年保持緊張。

For the full year of 2021, we now forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to grow about 12% while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 16%.

對於 2021 年全年，我們現在預測整個半導體市場（不包括內存）將增長約 12%，而代工行業增長預計約為 16%。

For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow by around 20% in 2021 in U.S. dollar terms.

對於台積電，我們有信心能夠超越代工收入增長，並在 2021 年以美元計算增長約 20%。

Next, let me talk about our capital budget for this year.

接下來，讓我談談我們今年的資本預算。

Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years.

每年，我們的資本支出都用於預期未來幾年的增長。

As we enter a period of higher growth underpinned by the multi-year structural megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications, we believe a higher level of capital investment is necessary to capture the future growth opportunities.

隨著我們進入由 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年結構性大趨勢支撐的高速增長期，我們認為需要更高水平的資本投資來抓住未來的增長機會。

In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion.

為了滿足未來幾年對我們先進和專業技術不斷增長的需求，我們決定將 2021 年全年資本支出提高到 300 億美元左右。

About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer.

2021 年資本預算中約 80% 將用於先進工藝技術，包括 3 納米、5 納米和 7 納米。

About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.

約 10% 將用於先進封裝和掩模製造，約 10% 將用於專業技術。

Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time.

我們希望每個人都在這段時間內保持安全和健康。

First, let me talk about the capacity shortage and demand outlook.

首先，讓我談談產能短缺和需求前景。

Our customers are currently facing challenges from the industry-wide semiconductor capacity shortage, which is driven by both a structural increase in long-term demand as well as short-term imbalance in the supply chain.

我們的客戶目前面臨著全行業半導體產能短缺的挑戰，這是由長期需求的結構性增長和供應鏈的短期失衡所驅動的。

We are witnessing a structural increase in underlying semiconductor demand as a multi-year megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications are expected to fuel strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years.

我們目睹了基礎半導體需求的結構性增長，因為 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的多年大趨勢預計將在未來幾年推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。

COVID-19 has also fundamentally accelerated the digital transformation, making semiconductors more pervasive and essential in people's life.

COVID-19 還從根本上加速了數字化轉型，使半導體在人們的生活中更加普及和必不可少。

In addition, the need to ensure supply security is creating short-term imbalance in the supply chain, driven by supply chain disruption due to COVID-19 and uncertainties brought about by geopolitical tensions.

此外，由於 COVID-19 造成的供應鏈中斷和地緣政治緊張局勢帶來的不確定性，確保供應安全的需要正在造成供應鏈的短期失衡。

Now let me talk about TSMC's investment plan and disciplines.

現在讓我談談台積電的投資計劃和紀律。

TSMC's mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider for the global logical IC industry for years to come.

台積電的使命是在未來幾年成為全球邏輯 IC 行業值得信賴的技術和產能供應商。

In order to support our customers' growth, TSMC is taking several actions to help address the capacity shortage for our customers.

為了支持客戶的增長，台積電正在採取多項行動來幫助解決客戶的產能短缺問題。

We are working hard to increase our productivity, to drive more output, to help support our customers for the near term.

我們正在努力提高生產力，推動更多產出，在短期內幫助支持我們的客戶。

To address the structural increase in the long-term demand profile, we are working closely with our customers and investing to support their demand.

為了應對長期需求的結構性增長，我們正在與客戶密切合作並投資支持他們的需求。

We have acquired land and equipment and started the construction of new facilities.

我們已獲得土地和設備，並開始建設新設施。

We are hiring thousands of employees and expanding our capacity at multiple sites.

我們正在招聘數千名員工，並在多個地點擴大我們的產能。

TSMC expect to invest about USD 100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&D of leading-edge and specialty technologies.

台積電預計未來 3 年將投資約 1,000 億美元以增加產能，以支持尖端和專業技術的製造和研發。

Increased capacity is expected to improve supply certainty for our customers and help strengthen confidence in global supply chains that rely on semiconductors.

增加產能有望提高我們客戶的供應確定性，並有助於增強對依賴半導體的全球供應鏈的信心。

Our capital investment decisions are based on 4 disciplines: technology leadership, flexible and responsive manufacturing, retaining customers' trust and earning the proper return.

我們的資本投資決策基於 4 個原則：技術領先、靈活且響應迅速的製造、保持客戶的信任並獲得適當的回報。

At the same time, we face manufacturing cost challenges due to increasing process complexity at leading nodes, new investment in mature nodes and rising material costs.

同時，由於領先節點的工藝複雜性增加、成熟節點的新投資和材料成本上升，我們面臨製造成本挑戰。

Therefore, we will continue to work closely with customers to sell our value.

因此，我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，以推銷我們的價值。

Our value includes the value of our technology, the value of our service and the value of our capacity support to customers.

我們的價值包括我們的技術價值、我們的服務價值和我們對客戶的能力支持價值。

We will look to firm up our wafer pricing to a reasonable level.

我們將尋求將我們的晶圓定價穩定到合理的水平。

We will continue to work diligently with our suppliers to deliver on cost improvement.

我們將繼續與供應商密切合作，以實現成本改善。

By taking such actions, we believe we can continue to earn a proper return that enable us to invest to support our customers' growth and fulfill our mission as trusted foundry partner.

通過採取此類行動，我們相信我們可以繼續獲得適當的回報，使我們能夠投資以支持客戶的成長並履行我們作為值得信賴的代工合作夥伴的使命。

With our technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust, we are well positioned to capture the growth from the favorable industry megatrend.

憑藉我們的技術領先地位、卓越的製造能力和客戶的信任，我們已做好準備從有利的行業大趨勢中獲得增長。

We reiterate our long-term revenue to be 10% to 15% CAGR from 2020 to 2025 in U.S. dollar terms.

我們重申，以美元計算，2020 年至 2025 年的長期收入複合年增長率為 10% 至 15%。

Next, let me talk about the automotive supply update.

接下來，我來說說汽車供應更新。

The automotive market has been soft since 2018.

自 2018 年以來，汽車市場一直疲軟。

Entering 2020, COVID-19 further impact the automotive market.

進入 2020 年，COVID-19 進一步影響汽車市場。

The automotive supply chain was affected throughout the year, and our customers continued to reduce their demand throughout the third quarter of 2020.

汽車供應鏈全年都受到影響，我們的客戶在整個 2020 年第三季度繼續減少需求。

We only began to see sudden recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020.

我們只是在 2020 年第四季度才開始看到突然復甦。

However, the automotive supply chain is long and complex with its own inventory management practices.

然而，汽車供應鏈又長又復雜，有自己的庫存管理實踐。

From chip production to car production, it takes at least 6 months with several tiers of suppliers in between.

從芯片生產到汽車生產，至少需要6個月的時間，中間有好幾層供應商。

TSMC is doing its part to address the chip supply challenges for our customers.

台積電正在盡其所能為我們的客戶解決芯片供應挑戰。

In January of this year, TSMC announced that capacity support for automotive customers is our top priority.

今年1月，台積電宣布對汽車客戶的產能支持是我們的首要任務。

Since then, we have worked dynamically with our other customers to reallocate our wafer capacity to support worldwide automotive industry.

從那時起，我們與其他客戶積極合作，重新分配我們的晶圓產能，以支持全球汽車行業。

However, the shortage further deteriorated due to the unexpected snowstorm in Texas and the fab manufacturing disruption in Japan.

然而，由於德克薩斯州的意外暴風雪和日本的晶圓廠製造中斷，短缺進一步惡化。

Together with our productivity improvement, we expect the automotive component shortage from semiconductor to be greatly reduced for TSMC's customer by the next quarter.

加上我們的生產力提高，我們預計到下一季度台積電客戶的半導體汽車零部件短缺將大大減少。

Now I will talk about Taiwan water supply update.

現在我將談談台灣供水更新。

The water supply in Taiwan is currently tight due to the lack of rainfall in the past year.

由於過去一年降雨不足，台灣目前的供水緊張。

We have been prepared for this.

我們已經為此做好了準備。

TSMC has a long-established enterprise risk management system in place, which covers water supply risk as well.

台積電有一套歷史悠久的企業風險管理系統，其中也涵蓋了供水風險。

Through our existing water-conservation measures, we are able to manage the current water usage reduction requirement from the government with no impact on our operations.

通過我們現有的節水措施，我們能夠管理當前政府提出的減少用水量的要求，而不會影響我們的運營。

We also have detailed response procedure to handle water shortage at different stages.

我們亦有詳細的響應程序，以處理不同階段的缺水問題。

We will continue our collaborative effort with the government and the private sectors on water conservation and new water sources.

我們將繼續與政府和私營部門在節水和新水源方面開展合作。

With our comprehensive enterprise risk management system, we do not expect to see any material impact to our operations.

憑藉我們全面的企業風險管理系統，我們預計不會對我們的運營產生任何重大影響。

Finally, I will talk about the N5 and N3 status.

最後說一下N5和N3的狀態。

TSMC's N5 is the foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA.

台積電的 N5 是代工行業最先進的解決方案，具有最佳的 PPA。

N5 is already in its second year of volume production with yield better than our original plan.

N5 已經進入量產第二年，產量比我們最初的計劃要好。

N5 demand continues to be strong, driven by smartphone and HPC applications, and we expect N5 to contribute around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021.

在智能手機和 HPC 應用的推動下，N5 需求持續強勁，我們預計 N5 將在 2021 年貢獻我們晶圓收入的 20% 左右。

N4 will leverage the strong foundation of N5 to further extend our 5-nanometer family.

N4 將利用 N5 的強大基礎進一步擴展我們的 5 納米系列。

N4 is a straightforward migration from N5 with compatible design rules while providing further performance, power and density enhancement for the next wave of 5-nanometer products.

N4 是從 N5 的直接遷移，具有兼容的設計規則，同時為下一波 5 納米產品提供進一步的性能、功率和密度增強。

N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022.

N4風險生產目標是今年下半年和2022年量產。

Thus, we expect demand for our N5 family to continue to grow in the next several years, driven by the robust demand for smartphone and HPC applications.

因此，在智能手機和 HPC 應用的強勁需求的推動下，我們預計未來幾年對 N5 系列的需求將繼續增長。

N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 and will use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost for our customers.

N3 將是我們 N5 的又一個完整節點，並將使用 FinFET 晶體管結構為我們的客戶提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。

Our N3 technology development is on track with good progress.

我們的 N3 技術開發進展順利。

We continue to see a much higher level of customer engagement for both HPC and smartphone applications at N3 as compared with N5 and [N7] (corrected by company after the call) at a similar stage.

與 N5 和 [N7]（在電話會議後由公司更正）在類似階段相比，我們繼續看到在 N3 的 HPC 和智能手機應用程序的客戶參與度要高得多。

Risk production is scheduled in 2021.

風險生產計劃於 2021 年進行。

The volume production is targeted in second half of 2022.

量產目標為 2022 年下半年。

Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology, which it is introduced -- when it is introduced, I'm sorry.

我們的 3 納米技術將是 PPA 和晶體管技術中最先進的代工技術，它被引入——當它被引入時，我很抱歉。

Thus, we are confident that both our 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer will be large and long-lasting nodes for TSMC.

因此，我們有信心我們的 5 納米和 3 納米將成為台積電的大型和持久節點。

This is concluding our key message.

這是結束我們的關鍵信息。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements.

謝謝你，C.C.我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

(Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

（操作員說明）如果您想用中文提出您的問題，我會在我們的管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Operator, can you please proceed with the first caller on the line?

接線員，您可以接第一個來電者嗎？

The first one to ask question, Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

第一個提出問題的人是瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

And I wanted to ask the first question just about Intel.

我想問第一個關於英特爾的問題。

They did announce their plans to reengage in the foundry sector and also, I think making it clear, their goals are to get back to manufacturing leadership.

他們確實宣布了重新涉足鑄造行業的計劃，而且，我認為明確表示，他們的目標是重新回到製造業的領導地位。

So could you discuss how you're viewing them now as a customer and also the assurances you're getting in business sustainability and how you're managing the potential risk if they improve manufacturing and pull back on some of the outsourcing plans?

那麼，您能否討論一下您現在如何看待他們作為客戶，以及您在業務可持續性方面獲得的保證，以及如果他們改善製造並撤回某些外包計劃，您將如何管理潛在風險？

Okay.

好的。

Randy, let me summarize your first question.

蘭迪，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。

Randy's first question relates to Intel and their recent announcement to reengage on foundry and get back to a manufacturing leadership position.

Randy 的第一個問題與英特爾及其最近宣布重新參與代工並重新回到製造領導地位有關。

So Randy's question is how does TSMC view Intel as a customer?

所以蘭迪的問題是台積電如何看待英特爾作為客戶？

What kind of business assurances are we getting on the sustainability of the business?

我們在業務的可持續性方面獲得了什麼樣的業務保證？

And how do we manage any of the potential risks?

我們如何管理任何潛在風險？

Randy, let me start with TSMC is everyone's foundry and support all our customers openly and fairly.

Randy，讓我先說台積電是每個人的代工廠，並公開公平地支持我們所有的客戶。

Intel is an important customer, and we will collaborate in some areas and compete in other area.

英特爾是一個重要的客戶，我們將在一些領域進行合作，在其他領域進行競爭。

And we always work with our customer to develop the necessary technology to support their products.

我們始終與客戶合作開發必要的技術來支持他們的產品。

Now let me comment a little bit on the competition.

現在讓我對比賽進行一點評論。

As a leading pure-play foundry, TSMC has never been short on competition in our 30-plus-year history, yet we know how to compete.

台積電作為一家領先的純晶圓代工廠，在我們 30 多年的歷史中，從不缺少競爭，但我們知道如何競爭。

We are -- we will continue to focus on delivering technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and earning our customers' trust.

我們是——我們將繼續專注於提供技術領先地位、卓越製造和贏得客戶的信任。

The last point, customers' trust, is fairly important because we do not have internal products that compete with our customer.

最後一點，客戶的信任是相當重要的，因為我們沒有與客戶競爭的內部產品。

So we can be the trusted technology and capacity provider and for years to come.

因此，我們可以在未來幾年成為值得信賴的技術和容量提供商。

And if you ask other comment, how we support Intel, we support them as an important customer.

如果你問其他意見，我們如何支持英特爾，我們支持他們作為重要客戶。

And we plan our capacity for the long-term industry megatrend also.

我們還為長期的行業大趨勢規劃了我們的產能。

It's not for the short-term demand.

不是為了短期需求。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer your first question, Randy?

這能回答你的第一個問題嗎，蘭迪？

Yes.

是的。

No, that's good on the first question.

不，第一個問題很好。

The second question and topic I wanted to discuss, you mentioned in your prepared remarks about the -- there is a bit more geopolitical pressure with particularly U.S. but also Europe and China.

我想討論的第二個問題和話題，你在準備好的評論中提到——特別是美國，還有歐洲和中國，地緣政治壓力更大。

They all are being aggressive about domestic capacity.

他們都在積極爭取國內產能。

If you could give an updated view on your strategy, if any shifts at the margin where you've traditionally run at the high scale in Taiwan.

如果您可以對您的策略提供更新的看法，如果您在台灣傳統上以高規模運行的邊緣是否有任何變化。

I'm curious for U.S. with the big land, just any plans to accelerate positioning with the potential eventually to do mega fab?

我對擁有大片土地的美國感到好奇，是否有計劃加速定位並最終有可能建造大型晶圓廠？

If you could give an update on Nanjing, if there's plans to expand from the current -- I think you're at 20,000.

如果你能提供關於南京的最新消息，如果有計劃從目前擴大——我認為你有 20,000 人。

And, if from a customer level, you're seeing shifts where more customers are starting to consider geographic location in the foundry consideration.

而且，如果從客戶層面來看，您會看到更多客戶開始在代工考慮中考慮地理位置的轉變。

Okay.

好的。

Randy, let me try to summarize your second question.

蘭迪，讓我試著總結一下你的第二個問題。

I think there's quite a few parts.

我認為有很多部分。

I think first, Randy's question is on looking at sort of the geopolitical landscape and looking at this talk of fabs in different countries.

我認為首先，蘭迪的問題是關於地緣政治格局和不同國家晶圓廠的討論。

So I think Randy, first, wants to know what is our progress or how do we see particularly U.S manufacturing; secondly, in other areas; and then thirdly, he would like an update on the Nanjing expansion; and lastly, how do customers feel about the need to manufacture in different countries.

所以我認為蘭迪首先想知道我們的進步是什麼，或者我們如何看待美國製造業；其次，在其他領域；第三，他想了解南京擴張的最新情況；最後，客戶如何看待在不同國家製造的需求。

Is that correct, Randy?

對嗎，蘭迪？

Yes.

是的。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Yes.

是的。

Randy, that's a lot of questions.

蘭迪，這是很多問題。

Sorry.

對不起。

You only gave us 2.

你只給了我們2個。

Let me try to answer.

讓我試著回答。

The first one, actually, I would like to say TSMC have been a global company.

第一個，實際上，我想說台積電一直是一家全球性公司。

We have a lot of manufacturing sites outside Taiwan, U.S., Mainland China, Singapore.

我們在台灣、美國、中國大陸、新加坡以外有許多製造基地。

But let me comment on the U.S. first.

但讓我先評論一下美國。

We have been in the U.S. for a long time, though.

不過，我們已經在美國呆了很長時間。

We set up WaferTech, that's an 8-inch fab located in upstate Washington back in 1996 and has continued to operate the manufacture of chips for our customers today.

我們於 1996 年建立了 WaferTech，這是一家位於華盛頓州北部的 8 英寸晶圓廠，至今仍繼續為我們的客戶生產芯片。

And now we are increasing our presence in the U.S. with an advanced 12-inch semiconductor fab in Arizona and the progress is executing to our plan.

現在，我們正在增加我們在美國的影響力，在亞利桑那州建立了一個先進的 12 英寸半導體工廠，並且正在按照我們的計劃執行進展。

And we are happy that we joined the effort to support semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.

我們很高興我們加入了支持美國半導體製造的努力。

You also asked about our status in Nanjing.

你還問了我們在南京的情況。

Did -- that you asked?

你問過嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

The fab in Nanjing is progressing well.

南京工廠進展順利。

We already completed the first phase of 20,000-wafers capacity installation, and actually, it's in production for a while.

我們已經完成了第一階段的20,000片產能安裝，實際上它已經投產了一段時間。

And we are -- we also have a plan.

我們是——我們也有一個計劃。

Depend on the customers' demand and depends on the economics, we have a plan to expand the capacity also, okay?

取決於客戶的需求和經濟性，我們也有擴大產能的計劃，好嗎？

And other question in Taiwan, why we...

還有台灣的其他問題，為什麼我們...

Also, 2 others.

另外，還有2個人。

One, Randy is asking with other regions also.

一，蘭迪也在詢問其他地區。

We never rule out any possibility with other region.

我們從不排除與其他地區的任何可能性。

But today, we already announced plan.

但是今天，我們已經公佈了計劃。

We currently have no further fab expansion plan in other areas such as Europe.

我們目前在歐洲等其他地區沒有進一步的工廠擴張計劃。

But we did not rule out any possibility.

但我們不排除任何可能性。

However, I want to emphasize, Taiwan will continue to be the main focus for TSMC.

不過，我想強調的是，台灣仍將是台積電的主要焦點。

Our center of R&D and majority of production line will continue to be located in Taiwan, okay?

我們的研發中心和大部分生產線將繼續設在台灣，好嗎？

Did that answer your questions?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That's clear.

這很清楚。

And maybe if you can clarify, for customer decisions, just that approach with Taiwan, is there -- are you starting to see it get raised a bit more about customers choosing location?

也許如果你能澄清一下，對於客戶決策，就台灣的這種做法，是否存在——你是否開始看到更多關於客戶選擇位置的問題？

Or are they still focused on the traditional just getting the best PPA, the best cost and delivery time?

還是他們仍然專注於獲得最佳 PPA、最佳成本和交付時間的傳統方式？

Right.

正確的。

So Randy's -- the last part of his question is, from a customer's perspective, is there a push by customers for this geographic diversification.

所以 Randy's - 他的問題的最後一部分是，從客戶的角度來看，客戶是否推動了這種地域多元化。

Or what do customers want?

或者客戶想要什麼？

Well, our customer welcome we establish a new fab in Arizona state.

好吧，我們的客戶歡迎我們在亞利桑那州建立一個新工廠。

Let me say that.

讓我這麼說。

However, the most important one to them is technology, is the manufacturing, it's the efficiency that TSMC provides, okay?

但是，對他們來說最重要的是技術，是製造，是台積電提供的效率，好嗎？

Actually, that's the most important one other than the consideration of geopolitical locations.

實際上，這是除了考慮地緣政治位置之外最重要的一個。

Okay, Randy?

好的，蘭迪？

Thank you, Randy.

謝謝你，蘭迪。

All right.

好的。

Next one on the line, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

下一位是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

My first question, could we talk a little bit about the $100 billion capacity plan for the next 3 years?

我的第一個問題，我們能否談談未來 3 年 1000 億美元的產能計劃？

Is that primarily a CapEx number?

這主要是資本支出數字嗎？

Just as you -- just seeing that this year already, we are spending about $30 billion.

就像你一樣——剛剛看到今年，我們花費了大約 300 億美元。

Should we be assuming that our CapEx is going to run around these levels or even higher in the next 2 years as well?

我們是否應該假設我們的資本支出將在未來 2 年內達到這些水平甚至更高？

So just wanted to clarify because there was some confusion whether that's a CapEx number or a CapEx plus R&D number.

所以只是想澄清一下，因為這是資本支出數字還是資本支出加研發數字存在一些混淆。

Okay.

好的。

So I think, Gokul, your first question is that we intend to spend USD 100 billion in the next 3 years.

所以我認為，Gokul，你的第一個問題是我們打算在未來 3 年內花費 1000 億美元。

Is that a CapEx number?

那是資本支出數字嗎？

And then also, what does that mean for the spending of the CapEx in the next 2 years?

然後，這對未來 2 年資本支出的支出意味著什麼？

Gokul, this is Wendell.

Gokul，這是溫德爾。

Yes, $100 billion is CapEx number.

是的，1000 億美元是資本支出數字。

Now we've already guided that this year will be $30 billion, but we're not going into the linearity in the next 2 years.

現在我們已經指導今年將達到 300 億美元，但我們不會在未來 2 年內進入線性關係。

You can actually have a feeling about what we will be spending in the next 2 years.

您實際上可以對我們在未來 2 年的支出有所了解。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very clear.

這很清楚。

My second question is on the inventory cycle and a lot of the capacity expansion that we are seeing in older technologies.

我的第二個問題是關於庫存週期和我們在舊技術中看到的大量產能擴張。

TSMC also is spending about roughly $3 billion based on the new guidance on specialty technologies as well.

根據新的專業技術指南，台積電也將花費約 30 億美元。

The industry also seems to be spending quite a bit of capacity there.

該行業似乎也在那里花費了相當多的產能。

What is TSMC's stake in terms of when we are going to see a bit more normalization in some of the older capacity?

台積電的利害關係是什麼時候我們會看到一些舊產能的正常化？

Does TSMC also subscribe to the view that even in 2022, we are likely to see some degree of capacity tightness or capacity shortage or TSMC feels that we will likely resolve this towards the end of this year or early next year?

台積電是否也同意即使在 2022 年，我們也可能會看到某種程度的產能緊張或產能短缺，或者台積電認為我們可能會在今年年底或明年初解決這個問題？

Okay.

好的。

Gokul, thank you.

高爾，謝謝。

Let me try to summarize your second question.

讓我試著總結一下你的第二個問題。

Your second question is looking -- asking about the inventory cycle and particularly on the mature nodes, looking at the expansion in the mature nodes.

你的第二個問題是看——詢問庫存週期，特別是在成熟節點上，看看成熟節點的擴張。

And Gokul wants to know, I think, that on the mature nodes, could we see some type of overcapacity and can the tightness continue to persist?

Gokul 想知道，我認為，在成熟節點上，我們是否會看到某種類型的產能過剩，並且緊縮能否繼續存在？

Or will we start to see some kind of overcapacity or oversupply towards the end of this year or in 2022?

或者我們會在今年年底或 2022 年開始看到某種產能過剩或供應過剩嗎？

Is that correct, Gokul?

對嗎，高庫？

Yes.

是的。

Just to highlight, I think many of your competitors are talking about 2022 also being undersupplied in many of these process nodes.

只是要強調一下，我認為您的許多競爭對手都在談論 2022 年在許多這些流程節點中也供不應求。

Just wanted to hear TSMC's view on that.

只是想听聽台積電對此的看法。

Well, Gokul, let me answer the question carefully because of -- we cannot rule out the possibility of an inventory correction or overbooking, something like that.

好吧，Gokul，讓我仔細回答這個問題，因為我們不能排除庫存更正或超額預訂的可能性，諸如此類。

But actually, we expect the structural demand to continue and we will work with our customer closely actually to develop some technology solution to meet customers' requirement and create differentiation and long-lasting value to our customer.

但實際上，我們預計結構性需求將持續下去，我們將與客戶密切合作，開發一些滿足客戶需求的技術解決方案，為客戶創造差異化和持久的價值。

As a result, actually we see the demand continue to be high.

結果，實際上我們看到需求仍然很高。

And the shortage will continue throughout this year and may be extended into 2022 also.

短缺將持續到今年全年，也可能延續到 2022 年。

Did that answer your questions?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So do you also feel that customers will continue to hold down to a higher level of inventory for quite some period of time?

那麼您是否也覺得客戶會在相當長的一段時間內繼續保持較高的庫存水平？

Is that the way you think about inventory as well?

你也是這樣看待庫存的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We expect the customer, almost all of them, to prepare a higher level of inventory.

我們希望幾乎所有的客戶都準備更高水平的庫存。

That is because of, today, geopolitical tension continue to persist.

這是因為，今天，地緣政治緊張局勢繼續存在。

Even the COVID-19 will recede sometimes, we hope as soon as possible, but it will continue for a while.

即使是 COVID-19 有時也會消退，我們希望盡快消退，但它會持續一段時間。

And put 2 factor together and we do expect them to prepare a higher level of inventory, and I believe Wendell already said that.

將兩個因素放在一起，我們確實希望他們準備更高水平的庫存，我相信溫德爾已經說過了。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, Gokul?

好吧，高庫？

Does that answer your second question?

這能回答你的第二個問題嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Now we have Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

現在我們有來自 CLSA 的 Sebastian Hou。

So first one is on the pricing strategy.

所以第一個是定價策略。

So I remember, 6 months ago, the company talked about sticking to the principle of respecting long-term partnership with customers.

所以我記得，6個月前，公司談到要堅持尊重與客戶長期合作的原則。

And the company doesn't seem to want to change the pricing on the mature technology nodes, which I mean 28-nanometers above.

而且該公司似乎不想改變成熟技術節點的定價，我的意思是 28 納米以上。

So I'm wondering if that's still the case now or if the company now considers some upward adjustment.

所以我想知道現在情況是否仍然如此，或者公司現在是否考慮進行一些向上調整。

And if it's the latter, what has changed versus 6 months ago?

如果是後者，與 6 個月前相比發生了什麼變化？

Okay, Sebastian.

好的，塞巴斯蒂安。

So Sebastian's first question is regards to pricing.

所以塞巴斯蒂安的第一個問題是關於定價的。

And he says that we always talk about long-term partnership with our customers.

他說，我們總是談論與客戶的長期合作夥伴關係。

And he's saying, in particular, on the older nodes, 28-nanometer and such, we -- would we raise the price.

他說，特別是在較舊的節點上，28 納米等，我們 - 我們會提高價格嗎？

So he's asking sort of what is the pricing strategy today and what has changed versus previously.

所以他問的是今天的定價策略是什麼，與以前相比發生了什麼變化。

Sebastian, let me answer that.

塞巴斯蒂安，讓我回答這個問題。

For more than 30 years, TSMC has provided stable and predictable pricing and we have refrained from opportunistic or short-term actions.

30 多年來，台積電提供穩定且可預測的定價，我們避免機會主義或短期行動。

But now as I said in my statement, the cost structure start to change, structural change, because of -- we have to invest on the leading-edge technology, which is more complex than ever.

但現在正如我在聲明中所說，成本結構開始發生變化，結構性變化，因為——我們必須投資於比以往任何時候都更加複雜的前沿技術。

And we also increased the mature technology node capacity, which a lot of them already been fully depreciated and now we have to invest on the new tools.

我們還增加了成熟的技術節點容量，其中很多已經完全折舊，現在我們必須投資於新工具。

So we refrain from opportunistic and short-term action, but we also had to sell our value.

所以我們避免機會主義和短期行動，但我們也不得不出售我們的價值。

So we are working with our customer closely, and we want to firm up our wafer pricing to a reasonable level.

所以我們正在與我們的客戶密切合作，我們希望將我們的晶圓定價穩定在一個合理的水平。

And we also work with our supplier to deliver the cost reduction, and we want to earn a proper return that enable us to continue to invest to support our customers' growth.

我們還與供應商合作以降低成本，我們希望獲得適當的回報，使我們能夠繼續投資以支持客戶的增長。

And in today's term, capacity support is the most important one they are looking for.

而在今天的術語中，容量支持是他們正在尋找的最重要的支持。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's fair.

這還算公平。

And my...

和我的...

Do you have a second question?

你有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, sorry, go ahead.

是的，對不起，繼續。

Yes.

是的。

I do have a second question.

我還有第二個問題。

I think we're -- for many reasons, we have seen in many countries globally, they plan or they want to increase their -- build their own semiconductor fabrication capacity domestically.

我認為我們 - 出於多種原因，我們已經在全球許多國家看到，他們計劃或他們想要增加 - 在國內建立自己的半導體製造能力。

We're also seeing some IDM, they are forced to increase their in-sourcing or add some internal capacity because of the chip crunch.

我們還看到一些 IDM，由於芯片緊縮，他們被迫增加內購或增加一些內部產能。

So my question is that IDM outsourcing has been one favorable driver for the foundry industry and TSMC growth in the past 3 decades and how TSMC see this trend evolving in coming years.

所以我的問題是，IDM 外包在過去 3 年中一直是代工行業和台積電增長的有利驅動力，以及台積電如何看待未來幾年這一趨勢的演變。

And would you be concerning this could lead to some overcapacity in a few years even if some of those may not be effective?

您是否會擔心這可能會在幾年內導致產能過剩，即使其中一些可能無效？

That is my second question.

這是我的第二個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Sebastian, let me summarize your question.

塞巴斯蒂安，讓我總結一下你的問題。

Your observation that countries are pushing for more domestic manufacturing and IDMs are also looking at expanding capacity.

您觀察到各國正在推動更多的國內製造，而 IDM 也在考慮擴大產能。

So Sebastian's question is looking at IDM outsourcing.

所以Sebastian 的問題是關於IDM 外包。

Do we see this trend slowing down?

我們是否看到這種趨勢正在放緩？

Or how do we see it in the next coming few years?

或者我們如何看待未來幾年？

And could this result, this capacity that's being built, result in excess capacity?

這種結果，這種正在建設的產能，會導致產能過剩嗎？

Well, Sebastian, let me say that in our long-term forecast, we continue to see the IDMs outsourcing continue to increase.

好吧，塞巴斯蒂安，讓我說，在我們的長期預測中，我們繼續看到 IDM 外包繼續增加。

And so we prepare the capacity for that also.

因此，我們也為此準備了容量。

And we don't think that IDM tried to expand their own capacity will result in overcapacity situation because of we -- technology is the most important thing, let me say that.

而且我們不認為IDM試圖擴大自己的產能會因為我們而導致產能過剩的情況——技術是最重要的，讓我這麼說。

And we expand our capacity based on the customers' need.

我們根據客戶的需求擴大產能。

And we saw the technology leadership that provided their product to be very competitive in the market.

我們看到了使他們的產品在市場上極具競爭力的技術領先地位。

So they are all happy to work with TSMC in developing their products for now, for the future.

因此，他們都樂於與台積電合作開發他們現在和未來的產品。

And so as a result, we continue to see the increased outsourcing from IDMs.

因此，我們繼續看到來自 IDM 的外包增加。

Okay.

好的。

Sebastian, does that answer your second question?

塞巴斯蒂安，這能回答你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, it does.

是的，它確實。

Next one to ask question, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一位要提問的是來自摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

So first of all, can I ask about the change of the 2021 revenue guidance?

那麼首先，我可以問一下2021年收入指引的變化嗎？

Can you explain where is the upside coming from, I mean, by applications will be great.

你能解釋一下好處來自哪裡嗎，我的意思是，應用程序會很棒。

And does that include some pricing adjustments for those revised up revenue guidance?

這是否包括對修訂後的收入指引進行一些定價調整？

All right.

好的。

I think Charlie's first question is relating to our 2021 revenue guidance from now of around 20% to say what has changed versus last time.

我認為查理的第一個問題與我們從現在開始的 2021 年收入指導有關，即大約 20%，以說明與上次相比發生了什麼變化。

And he also wants to know, can we talk about, by application, what is driving this change.

他還想知道，我們能否通過應用程序來談談是什麼推動了這種變化。

And what was the last part of the question, Charlie?

查理，問題的最後一部分是什麼？

Sorry.

對不起。

Actually, that's it.

其實，就是這樣。

And does that include -- capture some price hike as well?

這是否包括——也捕捉到一些價格上漲？

So his question is what is driving the change in the growth guidance for this year.

所以他的問題是是什麼推動了今年增長指導的變化。

And he would like to know which applications are driving it.

他想知道哪些應用程序正在推動它。

And does it include some price increases in this guidance?

它是否包括本指南中的一些價格上漲？

Okay.

好的。

Charlie, first of all, we don't comment on price.

查理，首先，我們不對價格發表評論。

I can share with you that we're everyone's foundry, our CapEx and capacity planning are based on the long-term demand profile underpinned by the industry megatrends, not short-term cyclical factors.

我可以與您分享，我們是每個人的代工廠，我們的資本支出和產能規劃是基於行業大趨勢所支撐的長期需求狀況，而不是短期的周期性因素。

We are seeing stronger engagements with more customers on 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer as compared to 3 months ago.

與 3 個月前相比，我們看到更多客戶在 5 納米和 3 納米方面的參與度更高。

And we work closely with our customers to plan the capacity, and we'll continue to focus our investments on advanced and specialty technology to support our customers' structural growth.

我們與客戶密切合作以規劃產能，我們將繼續將投資重點放在先進和專業技術上，以支持客戶的結構性增長。

Now this year, we expect -- in terms of platform, we expect that HPC and automotive platform growth will be higher than the corporate average, and the smartphone and IoT will be close to the corporate average.

今年，我們預計——在平台方面，我們預計 HPC 和汽車平台的增長將高於企業平均水平，而智能手機和物聯網將接近企業平均水平。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

So it seems like the upside coming cross-border or just some specific application.

因此，似乎好處是跨境或只是一些特定的應用程序。

I know that HPC automotive are growing better.

我知道 HPC 汽車正在發展得更好。

But just compared to last guidance, what was driving the upside?

但與上次指導相比，是什麼推動了上漲？

Okay.

好的。

Actually, all the platforms have upside compared to 3 months ago.

實際上，與 3 個月前相比，所有平台都有上漲空間。

Okay.

好的。

Got you.

得到你。

And then my next question is about your capital intensity in the long term.

然後我的下一個問題是關於長期的資本密集度。

I mean I think 1 or 2 quarters ago, company updated capital intensity, and at some point, can flow back to like 35% capital intensity.

我的意思是，我認為 1 或 2 個季度前，公司更新了資本密集度，並且在某個時候，可以回流到 35% 左右的資本密集度。

I'm not sure if that's the case for the coming 3 years.

我不確定未來 3 年是否會出現這種情況。

And also, linked to that, what does that mean to the long-term gross margin trend?

此外，與此相關的是，這對長期毛利率趨勢意味著什麼？

Because in today's conference call, I keep hearing some comments about structural cost increase.

因為在今天的電話會議中，我不斷聽到一些關於結構性成本增加的評論。

I'm not sure you said about the chemicals or equipment price.

我不確定你說的是化學品或設備價格。

But would that kind of impact company's long-term gross margin trend?

但這種影響會影響公司的長期毛利率趨勢嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Charlie, let me share with you.

查理，讓我與你分享。

Capital -- I'm sorry.

資本——對不起。

Go ahead.

前進。

Yes.

是的。

It's okay.

沒關係。

Yes, I think, Charlie, your question is on capital intensity, looking at what is the capital intensity looking like the next few years.

是的，我認為，查理，你的問題是關於資本密集度，看看未來幾年的資本密集度是什麼樣的。

And how does this correlate with our stated long-term capital intensity of kind of mid-30s range?

這與我們聲明的 30 年代中期的長期資本密集度有何關聯？

And then he also -- on the back of that, what does this mean for the long-term gross margin trend?

然後他還 - 在此基礎上，這對長期毛利率趨勢意味著什麼？

Okay.

好的。

Charlie, in terms of capital intensity, I've actually given out several points already.

查理，就資本密集度而言，我實際上已經給出了幾點。

First of all, if you look at -- we're saying in the next 3 years, we'll be spending USD 100 billion and this year will be $30 billion.

首先，如果你看一下——我們說在未來 3 年內，我們將花費 1000 億美元，今年將是 300 億美元。

We also say that in the next 5 years, we expect to grow between 10% to 15% revenue CAGR.

我們還說，在未來 5 年，我們預計收入複合年增長率將在 10% 至 15% 之間。

So if you do math, you probably will have a good idea about where our capital intensity will be in the next 3 years.

因此，如果您進行數學計算，您可能會對未來 3 年的資本密集度有一個很好的了解。

Now at this moment, we still expect that the capital intensity will go back to mid-30 level in the longer term.

此時此刻，我們仍然預計資本密集度將在較長時期內回到 30 年中期的水平。

That's the capital intensity.

這就是資本密集度。

In terms of gross margins, I think as C.C. has already mentioned, we see some challenges from manufacturing costs due to the increasing complexity of leading nodes, the new investment in mature nodes and some rising material costs.

就毛利率而言，我認為是 C.C.前面已經提到，由於領先節點的複雜性增加、成熟節點的新投資以及一些材料成本的上升，我們看到了製造成本的一些挑戰。

And therefore, we are taking actions to ensure that we earn a proper return by firming up our price, working with the supplier to drive the cost improvement.

因此，我們正在採取行動，通過堅定價格、與供應商合作推動成本改善來確保我們獲得適當的回報。

We expect that the 50% gross margin remains our target and is achievable.

我們預計 50% 的毛利率仍然是我們的目標並且是可以實現的。

Okay?

好的？

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

That's a very, very quick -- so can I assume part of that $100 billion CapEx also associated to a cost increase?

這是非常非常快的——所以我可以假設這 1000 億美元資本支出的一部分也與成本增加有關嗎？

And if that's the case, how much of that is due to the cost increase versus the demand?

如果是這樣的話，其中有多少是由於成本增加而不是需求？

This is -- I think the last part of this question is that then out of the $100 billion and this higher capital intensity, how much is due to the cost versus the demand.

這是 - 我認為這個問題的最後一部分是，在 1000 億美元和更高的資本密集度中，有多少是由於成本與需求的關係。

Yes.

是的。

Exactly.

確切地。

Okay.

好的。

Charlie, basically, we're seeing more engagement of our demand in the next few years.

查理，基本上，我們會在未來幾年看到更多的需求參與。

So I would say most of the CapEx come from the strong demand for our advanced technology and specialty technology, especially 5 and 3 nanometers.

所以我想說大部分資本支出來自對我們先進技術和專業技術的強烈需求，尤其是 5 和 3 納米。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Charlie.

謝謝你，查理。

Next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一位提問的是高盛的 Bruce Lu。

My question I'll just stick with the $100 billion CapEx.

我的問題是我會堅持 1000 億美元的資本支出。

I mean this is the first time for TSMC to announce a multi-year CapEx.

我的意思是，這是台積電首次宣布多年資本支出。

I think this suggests a very, very strong growth even beyond 2023, over 2025.

我認為這表明即使在 2023 年之後，超過 2025 年，增長也會非常非常強勁。

So can you give us a little bit more color about like what kind of application demand, which is strong enough to give the company such as high confidence for the CapEx?

那麼你能否給我們多一點顏色，比如什麼樣的應用需求，這足以讓公司對資本支出等高信心？

I mean we've seen through several cycles, but how can we have confidence just for the demand, like 3 to 5 years down the road?

我的意思是我們已經經歷了幾個週期，但我們怎麼能對需求充滿信心，比如未來 3 到 5 年？

Also, assuming TSMC mostly invests in advanced nodes, do you foresee the mature node capacity tightness continue and how and when this can be resolved?

另外，假設台積電主要投資於先進節點，您是否預見到成熟節點產能緊張的情況會繼續存在，以及如何以及何時可以解決？

Okay.

好的。

So Bruce has 2 questions.

所以布魯斯有兩個問題。

Both -- first is related to our CapEx.

兩者——首先與我們的資本支出有關。

With such a high level of spending, what is giving us the confidence that we see out over the next several years to spend -- an intention to spend this $100 billion?

如此高的支出水平，是什麼讓我們有信心在未來幾年內支出——打算花費這 1000 億美元？

And then his second -- well, maybe we'll go that first and then second question.

然後是他的第二個問題——好吧，也許我們會先回答這個問題，然後再回答第二個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer that one first.

讓我先回答那個。

In fact, we are seeing stronger engagement with more customers on 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer.

事實上，我們看到更多客戶在 5 納米和 3 納米方面的參與度更高。

And the engagement is so strong that we have to really prepare the capacity for it.

參與度如此之高，以至於我們必須真正為它做好準備。

And that's the main reason.

這就是主要原因。

So what is the second?

那麼第二個是什麼？

And then his second question is then looking at our CapEx, with the majority of our CapEx being on advanced nodes, on the mature nodes then, will the, I think, the supply-demand gap in mature nodes further widen?

然後他的第二個問題是看看我們的資本支出，我們的大部分資本支出都在高級節點上，在成熟節點上，我認為成熟節點的供需差距會進一步擴大嗎？

We did see the gap that mature node capacity not enough to support all the products in the market.

我們確實看到了成熟節點容量不足以支持市場上所有產品的差距。

So we are working with our customer closely to analyze the gap and we are also preparing to invest on the mature node, as I said in my statement.

因此，正如我在聲明中所說，我們正在與客戶密切合作，分析差距，我們也準備投資成熟節點。

But most important, we are developing the technology, specialty technology, with the mature node to support our customers' need so their product can be very competitive in the market.

但最重要的是，我們正在開發技術，專業技術，具有成熟的節點來支持我們客戶的需求，因此他們的產品可以在市場上非常有競爭力。

And so we can have demand secured for the next few years and we decide to invest on the mature node capacity.

因此，我們可以確保未來幾年的需求，我們決定投資成熟的節點容量。

Okay.

好的。

Bruce, does that answer your 2 questions?

布魯斯，這能回答你的兩個問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Can I take one?

我可以帶一個嗎？

We have to limit to 2, sorry.

我們必須限制為 2，抱歉。

There's a lot of people still waiting.

還有很多人在等。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next one to ask questions, Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.

下一位提問的是德意志銀行的羅伯特·桑德斯。

Yes.

是的。

My first question is regarding your CapEx rising up to the mid-30s by 2023.

我的第一個問題是關於到 2023 年您的資本支出上升到 30 年代中期的問題。

Are you asking customers to commit earlier than normal on that capacity?

您是否要求客戶比正常情況下更早地承諾該容量？

And are you considering asking customers for prepayments?

您是否正在考慮向客戶要求預付款？

How do you derisk those capacity plans?

您如何取消這些容量計劃？

And are you seeing an increased willingness to single source?

您是否看到單一來源的意願增加？

My second question was how far are you actually booked out on capacity?

我的第二個問題是，您實際預訂了多少容量？

And at which node is the biggest gap between demand and your capacity?

在哪個節點是需求和你的能力之間的最大差距？

Okay.

好的。

Robert, we'll take your questions one at a time.

羅伯特，我們一次一個地回答你的問題。

So his first question is looking at our CapEx for the next few years.

所以他的第一個問題是看我們未來幾年的資本支出。

With this level of spending, do we see customer commitments that are earlier than normal?

在這種支出水平下，我們是否看到客戶承諾比正常情況更早？

Are we looking for things like prepayments from customers to secure their commitments?

我們是否在尋找客戶預付款之類的東西來確保他們的承諾？

This is the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Robert, let me answer this first.

羅伯特，讓我先回答這個問題。

The $100 billion of CapEx is decided because we see the fundamental structure demand increase from the megatrend, multi-year megatrend and the acceleration of the digital transformations.

決定 1000 億美元的資本支出是因為我們看到大趨勢、多年大趨勢和數字化轉型的加速對基本結構的需求增加。

Now we cannot disclose the detail of our commercial terms with our customers.

現在我們不能向客戶透露我們商業條款的細節。

However, for us to make the investment decision will definitely require proper returns and secure customer commitments.

然而，我們做出投資決定肯定需要適當的回報和可靠的客戶承諾。

Okay.

好的。

And then Robert's second question is how far are we booked in advance in terms of our demand and which nodes do we see the biggest gap between what customers may want.

然後羅伯特的第二個問題是，就我們的需求而言，我們提前預訂了多遠，我們看到哪些節點與客戶可能想要的差距最大。

Well, I cannot comment on which node because almost all the nodes are in -- today in a high demand.

好吧，我無法評論哪個節點，因為幾乎所有節點都在 - 今天需求量很大。

However, let me stress again that our investment in the capacities for the future, many years to come because we work with customer closely to plan for the next few years' capacity support to them.

但是，讓我再次強調，我們對未來很多年的產能投資，因為我們與客戶密切合作，計劃未來幾年對他們的產能支持。

And the customer talking to TSMC and lay out their product plan for the next few years and it is 3 to 4 years, and we plan the capacity for that.

客戶與台積電交談並製定未來幾年的產品計劃，這是 3 到 4 年，我們為此計劃產能。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Robert.

謝謝你，C.C.謝謝你，羅伯特。

Now we have Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

現在我們有來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

Yes.

是的。

I had a question on the crypto activity at TSMC.

我對台積電的加密活動有疑問。

I guess we've seen record hash rate expansion around Bitcoin ASICs and GPU mining in the last couple of quarters.

我想在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經看到圍繞比特幣 ASIC 和 GPU 挖礦的哈希率出現創紀錄的增長。

So can you maybe share with us what portion of sales -- HPC sales is crypto at the moment?

那麼您能否與我們分享一下銷售的哪一部分——HPC 銷售目前是加密的？

And then as we get into the second half of the year, should we expect this to decline?

然後隨著我們進入下半年，我們是否應該預期這種情況會下降？

And I wanted to get your perspective.

我想了解你的觀點。

A couple of years ago, we had extreme volatility around crypto.

幾年前，我們在加密貨幣方面出現了極大的波動。

Bitcoin is now $1 trillion market cap.

比特幣現在的市值為 1 萬億美元。

Is this good business for TSMC?

這對台積電來說是好生意嗎？

Do you think this time will be different?

你認為這次會有所不同嗎？

I just wanted to get your perspective on this.

我只是想了解您對此的看法。

Okay.

好的。

So let me repeat your first question, Brett.

所以讓我重複你的第一個問題，布雷特。

He's asking about -- within HPC, looking at cryptocurrency, and he's asking what is the contribution we're seeing from cryptocurrency -- or crypto mining, I should say, to our revenue.

他在問——在 HPC 中，研究加密貨幣，他在問我們從加密貨幣中看到的貢獻是什麼——或者我應該說加密挖掘對我們的收入的貢獻。

And do we expect this -- how do we expect this to go in the second half of this year?

我們是否期待這一點 - 我們預計今年下半年會如何？

And then a longer-term question, which is how do we view this business.

然後是一個長期問題，即我們如何看待這項業務。

Let me answer the question.

讓我回答這個問題。

TSMC's technology is a leading technology, and that's why even cryptocurrencies mining using TSMC technology a lot.

台積電的技術是領先的技術，這就是為什麼即使是加密貨幣挖礦也大量使用台積電技術的原因。

But I don't -- and I cannot comment on what is the percentage or how much of this particular market sector to our revenue.

但我不 - 我不能評論這個特定市場部門對我們收入的百分比或多少。

However, I can say that cryptocurrency mining today is more mature than it was 2 or 3 years ago.

但是，我可以說今天的加密貨幣挖礦比 2 或 3 年前更加成熟。

And it remains a volatile market.

它仍然是一個動蕩的市場。

However, we will continue to work closely with our customers in this field.

但是，我們將繼續與該領域的客戶密切合作。

Okay, Brett?

好吧，布雷特？

And do you have a second question?

你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, I did.

是的，我做到了。

Yes.

是的。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Yes.

是的。

I wanted -- yes.

我想要——是的。

I wanted to talk about the inventory levels at TSMC at present.

我想談談目前台積電的庫存水平。

It grew quite significantly.

它增長得相當顯著。

And I think you mentioned that it was N5 related.

我認為你提到它與 N5 相關。

Now many of your smartphone customers are staying they have shortages at leading edge and you're building inventories at 5-nanometer.

現在，您的許多智能手機客戶都在停留，他們在前沿技術方面存在短缺，而您正在建立 5 納米的庫存。

So how do we reconcile that?

那麼我們如何調和呢？

And then just looking at Q2, would you expect inventories to rise again in the June quarter?

然後只看第二季度，您是否預計庫存會在 6 月季度再次上升？

Okay.

好的。

Brett, so you're asking about TSMC's inventory days, right?

布雷特，所以你問的是台積電的庫存天數，對吧？

And so Brett is asking what is leading to the increase in the inventory days at the end of first quarter.

因此，布雷特詢問是什麼導致了第一季度末庫存天數的增加。

And then how do we expect this to trend in the second quarter?

那麼我們如何預計第二季度會出現這種趨勢？

Okay, Brett.

好的，布雷特。

We prebuild for our customers during seasonal low level as we did before.

我們像以前一樣在季節性低谷期間為我們的客戶預建。

Now when we start to ramp in the higher season, the inventory usually come down naturally as before.

現在，當我們在旺季開始增加產量時，庫存通常會像以前一樣自然下降。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thanks, Brett.

謝謝，布雷特。

Now please welcome Roland Shu from Citigroup.

現在請您歡迎花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

My first question is also for this $100 billion CapEx.

我的第一個問題也是關於這 1000 億美元的資本支出。

Can you clarify, is this year's CapEx of $30 billion included in this $100 billion or not?

您能否澄清一下，今年 300 億美元的資本支出是否包含在這 1000 億美元中？

And also, I use your long-term capital intensity target.

而且，我使用你的長期資本密集度目標。

Last time, you said long-term is 3 to 5 years.

上次你說長期是3到5年。

And then I used this about $30 billion CapEx maybe in 2024.

然後我可能在 2024 年使用了大約 300 億美元的資本支出。

Then it implies your revenue in 2024 will likely to exceed $90 billion or even bigger, which is more than double than 2020's level.

那麼這意味著你在 2024 年的收入可能會超過 900 億美元甚至更多，是 2020 年水平的兩倍多。

So my question is, are there any challenges to you to recruit and train up enough amount of the talents to support such a fast growth for you going forward?

所以我的問題是，在招募和培養足夠數量的人才以支持你們未來的快速增長方面，你們有什麼挑戰嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Let me summarize your questions, Roland.

讓我總結一下你的問題，羅蘭。

So first, Roland is asking this $100 billion CapEx.

所以首先，羅蘭要求的是 1000 億美元的資本支出。

Does this include 2021 of around $30 billion?

這是否包括 2021 年的約 300 億美元？

And then he's asking about if we look at the longer-term capital intensity, what does this kind of imply for 2024 and '25 CapEx and capital intensity?

然後他問我們是否考慮長期資本密集度，這對 2024 年和 25 年的資本支出和資本密集度意味著什麼？

And then another part is that with this pace of growth, how do we recruit the talent to support our operations?

然後另一部分是，隨著這種增長速度，我們如何招募人才來支持我們的運營？

Roland, yes, $100 billion include this year's CapEx.

羅蘭，是的，1000 億美元包括今年的資本支出。

And we've talked about the 3-year, $100 billion, '21, '22 and '23.

我們已經談到了 3 年、1000 億美元、21 年、22 年和 23 年。

The capital intensity, I think, as I said earlier, you can probably do some calculation and have a feeling about the capital intensity in those 3 years.

資本密集度，我想，正如我之前所說，你大概可以做一些計算，感受一下這3年的資本密集度。

Longer term, we do see that the capital intensity will go back to about mid-30s level at this moment.

從長遠來看，我們確實看到此時資本密集度將回到大約 30 年代中期的水平。

And his second question is then how do we recruit talent to support our growth.

他的第二個問題是我們如何招募人才來支持我們的發展。

Roland, this is a very good question.

羅蘭，這是一個很好的問題。

Very good question.

非常好的問題。

The talent people recruiting is one of our top priorities in recent years.

人才招聘是我們近年來的首要任務之一。

And fortunately, we have communicated with the government and get Taiwan government's strong support.

幸運的是，我們與政府進行了溝通，得到了台灣政府的大力支持。

So they are now pushing for a new program to hire -- not to hire, to actually to allure the students to be in the semiconductor area, major in this area.

所以他們現在正在推動一個新的招聘項目——而不是招聘，實際上是為了吸引學生進入半導體領域，主修這個領域。

And internally, TSMC also have a very robust system.

而在內部，台積電也有一個非常強大的系統。

Right now, we just established to train all the newcomer and all the new engineer to be more -- they can grow faster.

現在，我們剛剛成立，旨在培訓所有新來者和所有新工程師，讓他們變得更好——他們可以更快地成長。

So externally, we got the help from government.

所以在外部，我們得到了政府的幫助。

Internally, we do our own part also to enhance the training.

在內部，我們也儘自己的一份力量來加強培訓。

And that's the way that we try to meet the requirement of enough talent people inside TSMC.

這就是我們試圖滿足台積電內部足夠人才需求的方式。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Roland.

謝謝你，羅蘭。

I think that was...

我認為那是...

Yes.

是的。

This actually is one question.

這實際上是一個問題。

That's 2 questions, Roland, okay.

這是兩個問題，羅蘭，好的。

Roland, we're happy to have you get back in the queue.

Roland，我們很高興您重新加入隊列。

Next one for question is Andrew Lu from Sinolink Securities.

下一個問題是國金證券的Andrew Lu。

Yes.

是的。

My first question is can we know what kind of percentage capacity increase on 8-inch specialty foundry and 12-inch mature -- 12-inch advanced for the next 3 years?

我的第一個問題是，我們能否知道未來 3 年 8 英寸專業代工廠和 12 英寸成熟——12 英寸先進的產能增加了多少百分比？

Maybe just the average will be fine.

也許只是平均水平就可以了。

Okay.

好的。

So Andrew's first question is on the capacity increase.

所以安德魯的第一個問題是關於容量的增加。

He wants to know, in the next 3 years, how much capacity are we increasing on 8-inch and then how much capacity are we increasing on the 12-inch.

他想知道，未來 3 年，我們在 8 英寸上增加多少容量，然後在 12 英寸上增加多少容量。

Andrew, let me share with you, we don't disclose that kind of details.

安德魯，讓我和你分享一下，我們不會透露那種細節。

But basically, 80% of the CapEx will be spent in advanced technology, about 10% in advanced packaging and mask making and another 10% in specialty technologies.

但基本上，80% 的資本支出將用於先進技術，約 10% 用於先進封裝和掩模製造，另外 10% 用於專業技術。

In the next 3 years.

在接下來的3年。

In the next 3 years.

在接下來的3年。

Okay.

好的。

Andrew, do you have a second question?

安德魯，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I do have the second question, but the first question doesn't really answer.

我確實有第二個問題，但第一個問題並沒有真正回答。

So can I have 2 more?

那我可以再多2個嗎？

No.

不。

We do not comment on the capacity by 8-inch or 12-inch, I think, Wendell has just said.

我們不評論 8 英寸或 12 英寸的容量，我認為，溫德爾剛剛說過。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Then second question is not related to price.

然後第二個問題與價格無關。

Assuming the next year, our rebate to the customer has been removed.

假設明年，我們對客戶的回扣已被取消。

What kind of percentage -- additional growth we should factor into our model?

什麼樣的百分比——我們應該在模型中考慮額外的增長？

Okay.

好的。

So Andrew's second question is assuming next year that the rebates have been removed, how much will this drive additional growth in next year and how should he factor this into his model.

因此，Andrew 的第二個問題是假設明年回扣已被取消，這將在多大程度上推動明年的額外增長，以及他應如何將其納入他的模型。

What is kind of pricing is strictly confidential between TSMC and TSMC's customer.

什麼樣的定價在台積電和台積電的客戶之間是嚴格保密的。

So I don't think that we can comment on that one, whether it's rebate, whether it's any other activities.

所以我不認為我們可以評論那個，無論是返利，是否是任何其他活動。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next one to ask question, Sunny Lin from UBS.

下一位要提問的是瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

So my first question is also on CapEx.

所以我的第一個問題也是關於資本支出的。

So when you plan for CapEx for this year and next few years, do you think the equipment supply could be a potential bottleneck in terms of the additional upside that you can spend?

因此，當您計劃今年和未來幾年的資本支出時，您是否認為設備供應可能成為您可以支出的額外收益的潛在瓶頸？

Well, I think several equipment makers have mentioned that based on this year's industry CapEx, they are already -- extreme supply tightness, especially for EUV.

好吧，我認為幾家設備製造商已經提到，根據今年的行業資本支出，他們已經——供應極度緊張，尤其是對於 EUV。

So any color would be appreciated.

所以任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Okay.

好的。

So Sunny's first question is that with our CapEx plan, do we see or face any equipment bottlenecks in terms of securing the tools and equipment.

因此，Sunny 的第一個問題是，通過我們的資本支出計劃，在保護工具和設備方面，我們是否看到或面臨任何設備瓶頸。

And I think part of your question is also particularly with regards to EUV.

我認為你的部分問題也特別是關於 EUV。

Well, let me answer the question.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。

In fact, when we plan $100 billion CapEx, we also work closely with our suppliers and -- to prepare in advance.

事實上，當我們計劃 1000 億美元的資本支出時，我們還與供應商密切合作，並提前做好準備。

So we don't expect -- certainly, we don't expect any bottleneck, whether it is EUV or not and actually we work closely with them.

所以我們不期望 - 當然，我們不期望任何瓶頸，無論是否是 EUV，實際上我們與他們密切合作。

Got it.

知道了。

Right.

正確的。

So would it be fair to assume that when you announced this $100 billion CapEx for next 3 years, it's already -- you already have a commitment from your suppliers?

因此，當您宣布未來 3 年 1000 億美元的資本支出時，是否可以公平地假設，它已經——您已經得到了供應商的承諾？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

Got it.

知道了。

My second question is 3-nanometer.

我的第二個問題是 3 納米。

Now we are just about a year before the mass production in second half of 2022.

現在距離 2022 年下半年的量產還有一年左右的時間。

So at this point, how should we think about the revenue contribution in its first year of commercial production?

那麼在這一點上，我們應該如何看待它在商業生產第一年的收入貢獻？

I think for 5- and 7-nanometer, they could get to high single digit of revenue or even close to 10% in first year.

我認為對於 5 納米和 7 納米，他們可以在第一年達到高個位數的收入，甚至接近 10%。

So just want to get your thought on that.

所以只是想得到你的想法。

Okay.

好的。

So Sunny's second question is looking at 3-nanometer.

所以 Sunny 的第二個問題是看 3 納米。

And with the schedule for production, how should we think about the revenue contribution from 3-nanometer in its first year?

有了生產進度，我們應該如何看待 3 納米在第一年的收入貢獻？

Sunny, that's too far to talk about that.

桑尼，談這個太遠了。

We will update you later on.

我們稍後會為您更新。

That is about 2 or 3 years away, yes.

那是大約 2 或 3 年之後，是的。

But we do expect it's big and long-lasting nodes, just like the former N5.

但我們確實希望它是大而持久的節點，就像以前的 N5 一樣。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Sunny.

謝謝你，桑尼。

Right now, we have Laura Chen from KGI.

現在，我們有來自 KGI 的 Laura Chen。

Yes.

是的。

My first question is still same -- similar to previous question about inventory days and inventory level.

我的第一個問題仍然相同——類似於之前關於庫存天數和庫存水平的問題。

I think both Wendell and C.C. mentioned already that high inventory probably will proceed for a while.

我認為溫德爾和 C.C.已經提到高庫存可能會持續一段時間。

But in what level we may start to worry about that?

但在什麼層面上我們可能會開始擔心這一點？

Or what would be the checking point?

或者檢查點是什麼？

Because so far, we all know that the demand outlook and TSMC's -- and particularly in the advanced node are quite tight.

因為到目前為止，我們都知道需求前景和台積電——尤其是在先進節點方面——相當緊張。

But what would be the checking point we closely follow?

但是我們密切關注的檢查點是什麼？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

So Laura's first question is with regards to inventory and inventory levels.

所以勞拉的第一個問題是關於庫存和庫存水平。

She understands the demand is tight.

她明白需求很緊。

But do we worry about the inventory levels?

但是我們擔心庫存水平嗎？

What are the type of checking points that we would look at.

我們會查看哪些類型的檢查點。

Well, let me answer that question.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。

Yes, I did say that our customer want to secure the supply, actually, at this moment.

是的，我確實說過我們的客戶想要確保供應，實際上，此時此刻。

That's due to some imbalance in the supply chain.

這是由於供應鏈中的一些不平衡。

And they are preparing for the future also.

他們也在為未來做準備。

But how we are going to do to test this, what is the checking point, actually let me say that we are working with our customer closely.

但是我們將如何測試這個，檢查點是什麼，實際上讓我說我們正在與我們的客戶密切合作。

It's not daily, it's at least that we check very often.

這不是每天，至少我們經常檢查。

And we make sure that all the demand to TSMC has been secured, and we prepare the capacity for that.

我們確保對台積電的所有需求都得到保障，我們為此準備了能力。

Okay.

好的。

And my second question is also about the mature node.

我的第二個問題也是關於成熟節點的。

I think C.C. mentioned about some specialty design, special technology for mature node.

我認為C.C.提到了一些特殊的設計，成熟節點的特殊技術。

I recall you mentioned before about the CIS progress and also the gallium nitride progress.

我記得你之前提到過獨聯體的進展以及氮化鎵的進展。

Can you give me more update or some special technology you are working now with the mature node, which may be the expansion in the next few years?

您能否給我更多的更新或一些您現在正在使用成熟節點的特殊技術，這可能是未來幾年的擴展？

Okay.

好的。

So Laura's second question is looking at the mature notes and that C.C. mentioned that our strategy is to work with customers to develop specialty technologies at those mature nodes.

所以勞拉的第二個問題是看成熟的音符和 C.C.提到我們的策略是與客戶合作，在那些成熟的節點上開發專業技術。

So she is wondering if we can give little more examples of what types of specialty technologies.

所以她想知道我們是否可以提供更多關於什麼類型的專業技術的例子。

Is that correct, Laura?

對嗎，勞拉？

Yes.

是的。

And also FD-SOI as well, if it's possible.

如果可能的話，還有FD-SOI。

And FD-SOI in other areas.

以及其他領域的FD-SOI。

Well, let me answer the last one first.

好吧，讓我先回答最後一個。

We don't work on the FD-SOI per se.

我們不研究 FD-SOI 本身。

But we develop the specialty technology for CMOS image sensor, as I mentioned previously, and the technology continue to improve because if you look at the application of the CMOS image sensor in the smartphone, in the automotive, there are a lot, okay?

但是我們開發了 CMOS 圖像傳感器的專業技術，正如我之前提到的，技術還在不斷改進，因為如果你看看 CMOS 圖像傳感器在智能手機、汽車中的應用，有很多，好嗎？

And we also -- in fact, the most important one also is ultra-low power that we develop the technology to meet the requirement of the mobile world.

我們還 - 事實上，最重要的一項也是我們開發滿足移動世界要求的技術的超低功耗。

I mean that everything is portable.

我的意思是一切都是便攜式的。

So ultra-low power is very important.

所以超低功耗非常重要。

Gallium nitride, all those kind of specialty, we continue to work with our customer, and for the future, high-frequency application or the high-voltage applications.

氮化鎵，所有這些專業，我們繼續與我們的客戶合作，並為未來的高頻應用或高壓應用。

We also work on the RF technology.

我們還致力於射頻技術。

Radio frequencies is important because of 5G's era.

由於 5G 時代，無線電頻率很重要。

The RF become fairly, fairly important in application in the WiFi communication area and a lot of them.

RF 在 WiFi 通信領域的應用中變得相當、相當重要，其中很多。

So following that question, do we have space or any capacity to further expand those technology here in Taiwan?

那麼在這個問題之後，我們是否有空間或能力在台灣進一步擴展這些技術？

So Laura is asking then will space be a constraint or limitation for the specialty.

所以勞拉在問，那麼空間是否會成為該專業的約束或限制。

Good question.

好問題。

We are working with our customer to expand our capacity whenever necessary.

我們正在與客戶合作，在必要時擴大我們的產能。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Right.

正確的。

Thank you, Laura.

謝謝你，勞拉。

Next on the line is Rick Hsu from Daiwa Securities.

接下來是大和證券的 Rick Hsu。

Yes.

是的。

I just got one question here.

我這裡只有一個問題。

I think your top -- regarding your second quarter guidance.

我認為你的最高 - 關於你的第二季度指導。

The revenue is going to grow sequentially in U.S. dollar terms.

以美元計算，收入將連續增長。

And also, if I don't remember wrong, Wendell did say that your inventory increase in Q1 was mainly because your customers prebuilt inventory for 5-nanometer.

而且，如果我沒記錯的話，Wendell 確實說過您在第一季度的庫存增加主要是因為您的客戶為 5 納米預先建立了庫存。

So that assumes that your 5-nanometer contribution will also increase in second quarter.

因此，假設您的 5 納米貢獻也將在第二季度增加。

So -- and also the exchange rate, also not getting worse, right?

所以——還有匯率，也不會變得更糟，對吧？

So against the backdrop of these 3 positive factors, right, revenue increase, 5-nanometer increase and favorable exchange rate, why your gross margin guidance for the second quarter is below your first quarter.

所以在這三個積極因素的背景下，對，收入增長，5納米增長和有利的匯率，為什麼你第二季度的毛利率指導低於你的第一季度。

Okay.

好的。

So Rick's question is looking at the second quarter and looking at the gross margin guidance.

所以里克的問題是看第二季度和毛利率指導。

Why is it basically lower than the first quarter or is sequential declining if you use the midpoint?

為什麼使用中點基本低於一季度或環比下降？

Okay.

好的。

Rick, let me explain to you.

瑞克，讓我給你解釋一下。

The sequential decline is mainly due to mix as the contribution from N5 will increase, but it still carries a dilutive effect.

環比下降主要是由於混合，N5 的貢獻將增加，但仍具有稀釋作用。

And secondly, we see a slower rate of cost improvement as our fabs continue to run at a very high level of utilization, leaving last time to do cost-improvement activities.

其次，我們看到成本改善速度較慢，因為我們的晶圓廠繼續以非常高的利用率運行，最後一次進行成本改善活動。

And lastly, a more technical thing is the absence of a positive inventory revaluation in the quarter.

最後，一個更具技術性的事情是本季度沒有積極的庫存重估。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Rick.

謝謝你，瑞克。

Next one to ask questions is Aaron Jeng from Nomura Securities.

下一位提問的是野村證券的 Aaron Jeng。

This question was not asked before, so I wish to ask before end of the call.

這個問題以前沒有問過，所以我想在通話結束前問一下。

You state customers' engagement on N3 and N5 are stronger than what you saw 3 months ago, which drives your $100 billion CapEx for the next 3 years, okay?

您表示客戶對 N3 和 N5 的參與度比您在 3 個月前看到的要強，這推動了您未來 3 年 1000 億美元的資本支出，好嗎？

Then let's ask in this way: compared with 3 months ago, are you now projecting a bigger market share gain potential over the next 3 years as pure foundry market and your widening technology leadership at the best now?

那麼讓我們這樣問：與 3 個月前相比，您現在是否預計未來 3 年作為純代工市場更大的市場份額增長潛力以及您目前正在擴大的技術領先地位？

This is my only question.

這是我唯一的問題。

Okay, Aaron.

好的，亞倫。

So Aaron's question is looking at the fact that we said customer engagement at 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer are stronger than what we saw a few months ago.

所以 Aaron 的問題在於我們說 5 納米和 3 納米的客戶參與度比我們幾個月前看到的要強。

So does this mean that we're going to -- expect to gain bigger or larger market share as a result.

那麼這是否意味著我們將 - 期望因此獲得更大或更大的市場份額。

Is that correct, Aaron?

對嗎，亞倫？

Yes.

是的。

And a bigger market share than expected 3 months ago.

並且市場份額比 3 個月前的預期更大。

Versus 3 months ago.

與 3 個月前相比。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer that question.

讓我來回答這個問題。

Certainly, as compared with 3 months ago, we have some progress in engaging with the customer to get their commitment to work with TSMC on 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer.

當然，與 3 個月前相比，我們在與客戶溝通方面取得了一些進展，以實現他們與台積電在 5 納米和 3 納米技術上合作的承諾。

And whether this one is the indication of TSMC's technology leadership, I would happily to say yes.

而這是否是台積電技術領先地位的標誌，我很樂意說是的。

We are continuing -- but the most important thing actually is that we are continuing to work with customer to develop the technology they need for their product.

我們正在繼續——但實際上最重要的是我們將繼續與客戶合作，開發他們產品所需的技術。

Each customer has a different kind of preference and we always can meet their demand.

每個客戶都有不同的偏好，我們總能滿足他們的需求。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Aaron.

謝謝你，亞倫。

Next one to ask question, Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

下一個要提問的人是 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes.

是的。

My first question has to do with some of the comparisons that you provided during last earnings conference call, you were comparing the capital intensity and a growth prospect to the period of 2010 and 2015.

我的第一個問題與您在上次財報電話會議上提供的一些比較有關，您將資本密集度和增長前景與 2010 年和 2015 年期間進行比較。

In that context, my question has to do with depreciation.

在這種情況下，我的問題與折舊有關。

Back then during the period of 2010 through 2015, depreciation increased at a growth rate of 20%.

當時在 2010 年至 2015 年期間，折舊以 20% 的速度增長。

How do you see that growth rate changing in the period of 2020 and 2025?

您如何看待 2020 年和 2025 年期間的增長率變化？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Okay.

好的。

So Mehdi's first question is looking at, I think, basically, looking at depreciation and looking at as we enter a higher period of growth, what does our depreciation look like.

所以 Mehdi 的第一個問題是，我認為，基本上，看折舊，看看當我們進入更高的增長期時，我們的折舊是什麼樣的。

And also, he is asking about the depreciation growth or increase.

而且，他正在詢問折舊增長或增加。

Given that we expect to grow between 10% to 15% in 2020 to '25 CAGR period, what does the depreciation growth look like this year and then beyond?

鑑於我們預計 2020 年至 25 年的複合年增長率將在 10% 至 15% 之間，那麼今年及以後的折舊增長情況如何？

Okay.

好的。

I can share with you that the depreciation this year will be around 30% higher than last year.

我可以和大家分享的是，今年的折舊率將比去年高出 30% 左右。

And we are not ready to share with you the rest of the 5-year period depreciation at this moment.

目前我們還沒有準備好與您分享剩餘的 5 年期折舊。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have a second question, Mehdi?

你還有第二個問題嗎，邁赫迪？

Okay.

好的。

Sure.

當然。

Yes, I have a second question.

是的，我還有第二個問題。

You raised your CapEx spending, given the increased demand by your customer.

鑑於客戶的需求增加，您提高了資本支出。

But your revenue growth target remains the same at 10% to 15%.

但是您的收入增長目標保持在 10% 到 15% 不變。

Why aren't you raising the revenue target as you're raising the CapEx?

為什麼在提高資本支出的同時不提高收入目標？

Okay.

好的。

So I think Mehdi is asking that we raised the CapEx spending.

所以我認為 Mehdi 要求我們提高資本支出。

And so why -- what is our view of the growth target, 10% to 15%?

那麼為什麼——我們對增長目標的看法是什麼，10% 到 15%？

Why are we not raising that as well?

為什麼我們不提高它呢？

Mehdi, actually, if you think about this 10% to 15% 5-year CAGR, it's a pretty big range.

Mehdi，實際上，如果你想想這 10% 到 15% 的 5 年復合年增長率，這是一個相當大的範圍。

From what we currently forecast, the revenue target is still within that range, maybe higher to the -- closer to the higher end than last time.

從我們目前的預測來看，收入目標仍在該範圍內，可能比上次更接近高端。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Mehdi.

謝謝你，邁赫迪。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Now we have Randy Abrams from Crédit Suisse.

現在我們有來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

The first one on the back end, that's keeping pace.

後端的第一個，保持同步。

Could you give an update on the spending and momentum you're seeing for the new SoIC and then also how the CoWoS and InFO are progressing?

您能否介紹一下您看到的新 SoIC 的支出和發展勢頭，以及 CoWoS 和 InFO 的進展情況？

Okay.

好的。

So Randy's first question is on our advanced packaging solutions.

所以 Randy 的第一個問題是關於我們先進的封裝解決方案。

He wants to know -- want an update on how SoIC is progressing as well as CoWoS and the other solutions.

他想知道——想了解 SoIC 的進展情況以及 CoWoS 和其他解決方案的最新情況。

Is that right, Randy?

是這樣嗎，蘭迪？

Yes.

是的。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Let me comment on the SoIC first.

讓我先評論一下SoIC。

This is the most advanced back-end technology, I think, that we offer to our customer.

我認為這是我們為客戶提供的最先進的後端技術。

And it will start to small volume production in 2022.

並將於 2022 年開始小批量生產。

And it's also actually adopted by very high-performance HPC applications.

它實際上也被非常高性能的 HPC 應用程序所採用。

As for InFO and CoWoS, we continue to expand our customer portfolio.

至於 InFO 和 CoWoS，我們將繼續擴大我們的客戶組合。

And I expect that the business from InFO and CoWoS will start to -- will continue to increase in the next several years.

我預計來自 InFO 和 CoWoS 的業務將在未來幾年開始 - 將繼續增長。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And just I have one quick one on that.

只是我有一個快速的。

You mentioned very high-performance applications.

您提到了非常高性能的應用程序。

SoIC, in a couple of years, as it ramps, should that be a big -- like also, do you expect a pretty big ramp like we saw in the past for InFO or it should be a good volume runner for TSMC?

SoIC，在幾年內，隨著它的增長，它應該是一個大的 - 就像我們過去看到的 InFO 一樣，你是否期望一個相當大的增長，或者它應該是台積電的一個很好的量產跑者？

And then I wanted to ask a second question.

然後我想問第二個問題。

Just a couple of clarification on gross margin in second half.

只是對下半年毛利率的一些澄清。

5 will be getting more mature.

5會越來越成熟。

So I'm curious, factoring your depreciation guidance, 5 getting more mature, if your view is 50% gross margin or if you're running very tight utilization, we may be able to stay a bit above the long-term range in the second half.

所以我很好奇，考慮到你的折舊指導，5 變得更加成熟，如果你的觀點是 50% 的毛利率，或者如果你的利用率非常低，我們可能會保持在長期範圍之上一點下半場。

Okay.

好的。

So a quick one.

所以一個快。

He wants -- Randy wants to know SoIC, will it be a large contributor?

他想——Randy 想了解 SoIC，它會是一個很大的貢獻者嗎？

How large can it be in a few years' time?

幾年後能有多大？

And then also on gross margin, the gross margin outlook for second half.

然後是毛利率，下半年的毛利率前景。

We hope that SoIC going to be adopted by all those HPC applications customer.

我們希望 SoIC 能夠被所有 HPC 應用客戶採用。

But I cannot nail down what is the specific revenue number in the future.

但我無法確定未來的具體收入數字是多少。

But we do expect our back-end service will continue to grow.

但我們確實預計我們的後端服務將繼續增長。

And the rate -- the growth rate will be a little bit higher than the corporate average.

增長率——增長率將略高於企業平均水平。

Okay.

好的。

Randy, about second half gross margin, it's a bit too early to give details on that.

蘭迪，關於下半年的毛利率，現在給出細節還為時過早。

However, you've already mentioned several things.

但是，您已經提到了幾件事。

N5 will become bigger in contribution to the revenue.

N5對收入的貢獻會越來越大。

It still has -- carries a negative or dilutive effect on the margins, about 2 to 3 percentage points.

它仍然對利潤率產生負面或稀釋效應，大約 2 到 3 個百分點。

Utilization is pretty -- still pretty tight.

利用率相當 - 仍然很緊張。

And we continue trying to improve our cost under this very high-utilization environment.

在這種高利用率的環境下，我們繼續努力降低成本。

So that's all the things we can share with you at this moment.

這就是我們現在可以與您分享的所有內容。

Okay.

好的。

And if I can fit in...

如果我能適應...

Sorry, Randy.

對不起，蘭迪。

I'm sorry, that's 2 questions because we're -- yes, thank you.

抱歉，這是 2 個問題，因為我們——是的，謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

The next one will be Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

下一位將是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

My first question is how should we think about HPC in terms of the demand cadence for second and third wave?

我的第一個問題是，從第二波和第三波的需求節奏來看，我們應該如何看待 HPC？

I think when smartphone was our big growth driver in the last 10 years, we had leading-edge growth from processors, et cetera, but we also had a lot of other ICs in smartphones as well as our applications, which drove the second, third, fourth wave of demand for any process node.

我認為，當智能手機是我們過去 10 年的主要增長動力時，我們從處理器等方面獲得了領先的增長，但我們在智能手機以及我們的應用程序中也有很多其他 IC，這推動了第二、第三，第四波對任意工藝節點的需求。

So now that HPC seems to be one of the key drivers for growth, how do we think about second-, third-wave demand?

那麼既然 HPC 似乎是增長的關鍵驅動力之一，那麼我們如何看待第二、第三波需求呢？

Would it keep up with the first and second wave for N5, N3, et cetera?

它會跟上 N5、N3 等的第一波和第二波嗎？

Or should we think about TSMC will be doing more capacity conversion compared to in the past?

還是我們應該考慮台積電會比過去做更多的產能轉換？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

So Gokul's first question is looking at HPC and looking at how HPC is also, along with smartphone, becoming the first-wave adopters of our leading-edge nodes.

所以 Gokul 的第一個問題是關注 HPC，看看 HPC 如何與智能手機一起成為我們領先節點的第一波採用者。

He's wondering then, though, for the second and additional waves of demand, will HPC -- how do we see HPC driving additional waves of demand or will we convert capacity.

不過，他想知道，對於第二波和額外的需求浪潮，HPC 是否會 - 我們如何看待 HPC 推動額外的需求浪潮，或者我們將轉換產能。

Let me make some comment.

讓我發表一些評論。

Actually, the HPC application includes many different subsegment such as CPU, GPU, networking, FPGA, AI-accelerator, video gaming, et cetera, et cetera.

實際上，HPC 應用程序包括許多不同的子部分，例如 CPU、GPU、網絡、FPGA、AI 加速器、視頻遊戲等等。

And each one will have their own migration path and product life cycle also.

每個人都有自己的遷移路徑和產品生命週期。

So we expect to see HPC, not only in the first wave, but in additional waves of demand to support our leading node in the future, actually.

因此，我們希望看到 HPC 不僅在第一波浪潮中出現，而且實際上在未來支持我們領先節點的額外需求浪潮中。

Did that answer your questions?

這回答了你的問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

That's clear.

這很清楚。

Do you have a second question?

你有第二個問題嗎？

Second question, just wanted to -- yes.

第二個問題，只是想——是的。

Just wanted to follow up on any thoughts from TSMC on the Arizona fab capacity.

只是想跟進台積電對亞利桑那工廠產能的任何想法。

I think you've already announced 20,000 of wafers per month of 5-nanometer coming up in 2024.

我想你們已經宣佈在 2024 年每個月生產 20,000 片 5 納米的晶圓。

What has been your discussion with customers regarding any potential upside to this capacity?

您與客戶就該容量的任何潛在優勢進行了哪些討論？

Are customers asking for more capacity there?

客戶是否需要更多容量？

Do you feel that we -- right now, this seems more like an n-1 cadence because 5-nano started in Taiwan in 2020 already.

您是否覺得我們 - 現在，這似乎更像是一個 n-1 的節奏，因為 5-nano 已經在 2020 年在台灣開始了。

Do we feel that we will move to a more -- shorter or a quicker cadence for leading edge in, let's say, Arizona or U.S. capacity?

我們是否認為我們將轉向更短或更短的節奏來獲得領先優勢，比如說，亞利桑那州或美國的產能？

I just wanted to understand how TSMC is thinking about this right now.

我只是想了解台積電現在是如何考慮這個問題的。

Okay.

好的。

Gokul's second question is on our U.S. manufacturing and our fab in Arizona.

Gokul 的第二個問題是關於我們在美國的製造和我們在亞利桑那州的工廠。

He wants to know that our customer is asking for more capacity or more production.

他想知道我們的客戶要求更多的產能或更多的產量。

And also, we start with N5, I guess your question is what about the future plans for bringing additional technologies there and the cadence.

而且，我們從 N5 開始，我想你的問題是未來將其他技術引入那裡的計劃和節奏如何。

Okay.

好的。

We are executing our plan in Arizona according to the schedule and construction will start this year.

我們正在按計劃在亞利桑那州執行我們的計劃，今年將開始建設。

Phase 1 production, as you said, we are starting 2024 with a 20,000 wafer per month 5-nanometer technology.

如您所說，第一階段生產將從 2024 年開始，採用 5 納米技術每月生產 20,000 片晶圓。

But in fact, we have acquired a large piece of land in Arizona to provide flexibility.

但事實上，我們在亞利桑那州收購了一大塊土地以提供靈活性。

So further expansion is possible, but we will ramp up to Phase 1 first, then based on the operation efficiency and cost economics and also the customers' demand to decide what the next steps we are going to do.

所以進一步擴展是可能的，但我們將首先進入第一階段，然後根據運營效率和成本經濟性以及客戶的需求來決定我們接下來要做什麼。

Our customers welcome us to build capacity in the U.S., and our fab in Arizona will be available to support all our customers from around the world and just like other -- all the TSMC's fab, no matter where they are and no matter where they're located.

我們的客戶歡迎我們在美國建立產能，我們在亞利桑那州的晶圓廠將可以支持我們來自世界各地的所有客戶，就像其他所有台積電的晶圓廠一樣，無論他們在哪裡，也無論他們在哪裡。重新定位。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Yes.

是的。

The last one to ask question, Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

最後一個提問的人是 CLSA 的 Sebastian Hou。

Yes.

是的。

I only have one question.

我只有一個問題。

So just a follow-up on C.C.'s comments earlier, that C.C. mentioned that TSMC has been working closely with the customer to analyze the gap between capacity and demand on the trailing-edge nodes.

所以只是對 C.C. 之前評論的跟進，C.C.提到台積電一直在與客戶密切合作，分析後緣節點的產能和需求差距。

So wondering if you could share some color with us.

所以想知道你是否可以與我們分享一些顏色。

If we exclude the overbooking portion and based on your best analysis, does the demand still significantly exceed supply?

如果我們排除超額預訂部分並根據您的最佳分析，需求是否仍顯著超過供應？

And how big is the gap, if you have any rough number that can be shared?

如果您有任何可以共享的粗略數字，那麼差距有多大？

Furthermore, based on the CapEx you and your peers are investing in the capacity expansion lead time, when do you think the tightness can be eased or the whole shortage situation can be removed?

此外，基於您和您的同行在產能擴張提前期上投入的資本支出，您認為什麼時候可以緩解緊張，或者整個短缺情況可以消除？

That's the only question I have.

這是我唯一的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Let me try to summarize your question, Sebastian.

讓我試著總結一下你的問題，塞巴斯蒂安。

You're asking, on the mature nodes, the fact that TSMC works with our customers very closely, but also in looking at the supply/demand of those older nodes.

你在問，在成熟節點上，台積電與我們的客戶非常密切合作，而且還關注那些舊節點的供需情況。

So with the additional capacity added, will -- when and will we eventually see an easing of the supply tightness at the mature nodes?

因此，隨著額外容量的增加，我們最終會在何時以及何時看到成熟節點的供應緊張有所緩解？

Is that correct, Sebastian?

對嗎，塞巴斯蒂安？

Yes.

是的。

And also, if you can, if we exclude the overbooking part, with your best estimate, whether the demand is still exceeding supply right now.

而且，如果可以的話，如果我們排除了超額預訂部分，你最好的估計，現在需求是否仍然超過供應。

All right.

好的。

To be frank with you, as I said, we work with customer closely.

坦率地說，正如我所說，我們與客戶密切合作。

And so the overbooking is not in our calculation, although we did not exclude it out of this possibility.

因此，超額預訂不在我們的計算範圍內，儘管我們並未將其排除在這種可能性之外。

But we do the very detailed analysis internally, and as I said, work with customer closely.

但我們在內部進行了非常詳細的分析，正如我所說，與客戶密切合作。

And so we prepare the mature node capacity for them.

所以我們為他們準備了成熟的節點容量。

However, building a fab from a green fab start and also to install the capacity, it won't be available until 2023.

然而，從綠色工廠開始建造工廠並安裝產能，要到 2023 年才能投入使用。

And so this year and next year, I still expect the capacity tightness will continue and probably also next year.

所以今年和明年，我仍然預計產能緊張會持續下去，可能明年也會繼續。

2023, I hope that we can offer more capacity to support our customers.

2023，我希望我們可以提供更多的能力來支持我們的客戶。

And at that time, we start to see the supply chains tightness will release a little bit.

到那時，我們開始看到供應鏈的緊張程度會有所釋放。

Okay.

好的。

Sebastian, does that answer your question?

塞巴斯蒂安，這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So is it fair for us to conclude that in the next 18 months, it is very safe to assume that we will still be in the supply tight situation, is that right?

因此，我們可以得出這樣的結論，即在接下來的 18 個月中，我們可以非常安全地假設我們仍將處於供應緊張的狀態，對嗎？

For our customers, we are working with them, let me say that.

對於我們的客戶，我們正在與他們合作，讓我這麼說。

But it's still very tight.

但是還是很緊。

Yes, you are right.

是的，你是對的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Sebastian.

謝謝你，塞巴斯蒂安。

This concludes our Q&A session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now and the transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起 4 小時內將提供會議重播，從現在起 24 小時內提供會議記錄，兩者都將通過台積電網站 www.tsmc 提供。 com。

So thank you for joining us today.

所以，感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe, and we hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望每個人都繼續保持健康和安全，我們希望您在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。