台積電 ADR (TSM) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

（外語）女士們，先生們，歡迎來到台積電2020年第二季度財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將通過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 以現場音頻網絡直播的方式主持我們的收益電話會議，您還可以在該網站下載收益發布材料。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2020, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2020.

首先，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官 Wendell Huang 先生將總結我們 2020 年第二季度的運營情況，然後是我們對 2020 年第三季度的指導。

Afterwards, Mr. Huang; and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，黃先生；和台積電首席執行官 C.C.魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host a Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

隨後，台積電董事長劉國強博士將主持問答環節，屆時三位高管將解答大家的提問。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.

請參閱我們的新聞稿中出現的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在我想把電話轉給台積電的首席財務官 Wendell Huang 先生，以獲得運營總結和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Second quarter revenue was flat sequentially, as the continued 5G infrastructure deployment and HPC-related product launches offset weaknesses in other platforms.

第二季度收入環比持平，因為持續的 5G 基礎設施部署和 HPC 相關產品的發布抵消了其他平台的弱點。

Gross margin increased 1.2 percentage points sequentially to 53% mainly due to continuing high level of utilization and the absence of unfavorable inventory valuation adjustment, partially offset by NT dollar appreciation in the second quarter.

毛利率環比增長 1.2 個百分點至 53%，這主要是由於利用率持續保持高位且未進行不利的庫存估值調整，部分被第二季度新台幣升值所抵消。

Total operating expenses increased by TWD 1.19 billion, mainly as TSMC supported a range of COVID-19 relief efforts.

總運營費用增加了 11.9 億新台幣，主要是因為台積電支持了一系列 COVID-19 救援工作。

Operating margin increased by 0.8 percentage points sequentially to 42.2%.

營業利潤率環比增長 0.8 個百分點至 42.2%。

Overall, our second quarter EPS was TWD 4.66, and ROE was 28.5%.

總體而言，我們第二季度的每股收益為新台幣 4.66 元，淨資產收益率為 28.5%。

Now let's move on to the revenue by technology.

現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。

7-nano process technology contributed 36% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, while 16-nanometer contributed 18%.

7 納米工藝技術在第二季度貢獻了 36% 的晶圓收入，而 16 納米工藝貢獻了 18%。

Advanced technologies, which are defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 54% of wafer revenue.

定義為 16 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 54%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform.

繼續討論平台的收入貢獻。

Smartphones decreased 4% quarter-over-quarter, to account for 47% of our second quarter revenue.

智能手機環比下降 4%，占我們第二季度收入的 47%。

HPC increased 12%, to account for 33%.

HPC 增長 12%，佔 33%。

IoT decreased 5%, to account for 8%.

物聯網下降 5%，佔 8%。

Automotive decreased 13%, to account for 4%.

汽車下降了 13%，佔 4%。

Digital consumer electronics decreased 9%, to account for 5%.

數字消費電子產品下降 9%，佔 5%。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 605 billion.

我們在第二季度結束時擁有 6050 億新台幣的現金和有價證券。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 25 billion mainly due to the increase of TWD 30 billion in short-term loans.

負債方面，流動負債增加新台幣250億元，主要是短期貸款增加新台幣300億元。

On financial ratios, accounts receivables turnover days increased 2 days to 44 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數增加 2 天至 44 天。

Days of inventory also increased 2 days to 55 days mainly due to N5 ramp and stronger N7 demand.

庫存天數也增加了 2 天，達到 55 天，這主要是由於 N5 產量增加和 N7 需求強勁。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 170 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 127 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 65 billion for third quarter cash dividend.

第二季度，我們從運營中產生了約 1700 億新台幣的現金，支出了 1270 億新台幣的資本支出，並為第三季度現金股息分配了 650 億新台幣。

We also increased TWD 30 billion in short-term loans and issued TWD 36 billion of corporate bonds.

新增短期貸款300億新台幣，發行公司債券360億新台幣。

Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 37 billion to TWD 468 billion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，本季度末我們的現金餘額增加了 370 億新台幣至 4680 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures amounted to $4.2 billion.

以美元計算，我們第二季度的資本支出為 42 億美元。

I've finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to our third quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向我們的第三季度指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between USD 11.2 billion and USD 11.5 billion, which represents a 9.3% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據當前的業務前景，我們預計第三季度收入將在 112 億美元至 115 億美元之間，中值環比增長 9.3%。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.5, gross margin is expected to be between 50% and 52%, operating margin between 39% and 41%.

基於 1 美元兌 29.5 新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在 50% 和 52% 之間，營業利潤率在 39% 和 41% 之間。

Now I will hand over the call to C.C. for his key messages.

現在我將把電話交給C.C.為他的關鍵信息。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，下午好。

Let me start with our near-term demand outlook.

讓我從我們的近期需求前景開始。

We concluded our second quarter with revenue of TWD 310.7 billion or USD 10.4 billion, in line with our guidance given 3 months ago.

我們以 3107 億新台幣或 104 億美元的收入結束了第二季度，與我們 3 個月前給出的指引一致。

Our second quarter business increased slightly in U.S. dollar terms, as the continued 5G infrastructure deployment and HPC-related product launches offset weakness in other platforms.

我們第二季度的業務以美元計算略有增長，因為持續的 5G 基礎設施部署和 HPC 相關產品的發布抵消了其他平台的疲軟。

Moving into third quarter 2020, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies driven by 5G smartphone, HPC and IoT-related applications.

進入 2020 年第三季度，我們預計我們的業務將受到 5G 智能手機、HPC 和物聯網相關應用推動的對我們行業領先的 5 納米和 7 納米技術的強勁需求的支持。

Looking at the second half of this year.

放眼今年下半年。

COVID-19 continues to bring some level of disruption to the global economies, and uncertainty remain.

COVID-19 繼續給全球經濟帶來一定程度的破壞，不確定性依然存在。

We have observed weak consumer demand in the first half of this year and now expect global smartphone units to decline low-teens percentage year-over-year in 2020.

我們觀察到今年上半年消費者需求疲軟，現在預計全球智能手機銷量將在 2020 年同比下降十幾%。

However, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, we also observe the supply chain making effort to ensure supply chain security and actively preparing for new 5G smartphone launches.

然而，在 COVID-19 大流行期間，我們也觀察到供應鏈正在努力確保供應鏈安全並積極準備新的 5G 智能手機發布。

We raised our forecast for 5G smartphone penetration rate to high-teens percentage of the total smartphone market in 2020.

我們將 2020 年 5G 智能手機滲透率預測上調至佔整個智能手機市場的十幾歲百分比。

For the full year of 2020, 5G and HPC-related applications will continue to drive semiconductor content enrichment.

2020年全年，5G和HPC相關應用將繼續推動半導體內容豐富。

We now forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory growth, to be flat to slightly increasing, while foundry industry growth is expected to increase to be mid- to high-teens percentage.

我們現在預測整個半導體市場（不包括內存增長）將持平或略有增長，而晶圓代工行業的增長預計將達到中高百分比。

For TSMC, although COVID-19-related uncertainties remain, our technology leadership position enable us to outperform the foundry revenue growth.

對於台積電而言，儘管與 COVID-19 相關的不確定性仍然存在，但我們的技術領先地位使我們能夠超越代工收入增長。

We believe we can grow above 20% in 2020 in U.S. dollar terms, including the impact from the new U.S. regulations, which I will discuss in the next session.

我們相信，以美元計算，我們可以在 2020 年實現 20% 以上的增長，包括美國新法規的影響，我將在下屆會議上討論這一點。

Our 2020 business will be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies and our specialty technology solutions, driven by customers of 5G smartphone-related product launches and expanding HPC-related opportunities.

我們 2020 年的業務將受到對我們行業領先的 5 納米和 7 納米技術以及我們的專業技術解決方案的強勁需求的支持，這受到 5G 智能手機相關產品發布的客戶和不斷擴大的 HPC 相關機會的推動。

Now let me talk about the impact of new U.S. regulations.

現在讓我談談美國新法規的影響。

On May 13, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced a set of new export control regulations.

5 月 13 日，美國商務部公佈了一套新的出口管制條例。

As a global and law-abiding company, TSMC will follow all the rules and regulations fully, no doubt about it.

作為一家全球化的守法企業，台積電將完全遵守所有的規章制度，這是毫無疑問的。

While there may be some impact from the new U.S. regulations, TSMC's purpose to unleash innovation remain unchanged.

儘管美國新法規可能會產生一些影響，但台積電釋放創新的宗旨保持不變。

Our leading position in the semiconductor industry [as everyone's foundry], technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customers' trust also remain unchanged.

我們在半導體行業的領先地位[作為每個人的代工廠]、技術領先地位、卓越製造和客戶信任也保持不變。

We will continue to build upon our trinity of strengths and conduct our business with integrity to ensure our value and contribute to the semiconductor industry.

我們將繼續發揮我們的三位一體優勢，誠信經營，以確保我們的價值並為半導體行業做出貢獻。

In the near term, we will work dynamically with our customer to minimize the impact to our business from new U.S. regulations.

在短期內，我們將與客戶積極合作，以盡量減少美國新法規對我們業務的影響。

In the mid- to long term, we believe the underlying megatrend of 5G-related and HPC applications remain intact, and supply chain can adjust and rebalance themselves.

從中長期來看，我們認為 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的潛在大趨勢保持不變，供應鏈可以自我調整和再平衡。

With our technology leadership, we are well positioned to capture the mid- to long-term growth opportunities.

憑藉我們的技術領先地位，我們有能力抓住中長期增長機會。

We reaffirm our goal to grow at the high end of our long-term growth projection of 5% to 10% CAGR in U.S. dollar terms.

我們重申我們的目標是在我們以美元計算的 5% 至 10% 複合年增長率的長期增長預測的高端增長。

Next, let me talk about our N5 ramp-up and N4 introduction.

接下來說說我們的N5 ramp-up和N4介紹。

N5 is the foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA.

N5 是代工行業最先進的解決方案，具有最好的 PPA。

N5 is already in volume production with good yield, while we continue to improve the productivity and performance of the EUV tools.

N5 已經以良好的良率量產，同時我們繼續提高 EUV 工具的生產率和性能。

We are seeing robust demand for N5 and expect a strong ramp of N5 in the second half of this year driven by both 5G smartphones and HPC applications.

我們看到對 N5 的強勁需求，預計今年下半年 N5 將在 5G 智能手機和 HPC 應用程序的推動下強勁增長。

As we observed some delays earlier this year in N5 toward deliveries due to COVID-19, we now expect 5-nanometer to contribute about 8% of our wafer revenue in 2020.

由於我們在今年早些時候觀察到由於 COVID-19 而導致 N5 的交付出現一些延遲，我們現在預計 5 納米將在 2020 年貢獻我們晶圓收入的 8% 左右。

We also introduced N4 as an extension of our 5-nanometer family.

我們還推出了 N4 作為我們 5 納米系列的擴展。

N4 will have compatible design rules and a highly competitive performance to cost advantages, as compared to N5, and we'll target next wave of the N5 products.

與 N5 相比，N4 將具有兼容的設計規則和極具競爭力的性能成本優勢，我們將瞄準下一波 N5 產品。

Volume production is targeted for 2022.

批量生產的目標是 2022 年。

Thus, we are confident that our 5-nanometer family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

因此，我們有信心我們的 5 納米系列將成為台積電的又一個大而持久的節點。

Now I will talk about our N3 status.

現在我將談談我們的N3身份。

N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 with about a 70% larger density gain, 10% to 15% speed gain and 25 to 30 power improvement, as compared with 5-nanometer.

與 5 納米相比，N3 將是我們 N5 的又一個完整節點，密度增益提高了 70%，速度增益提高了 10% 到 15%，功率提高了 25 到 30。

Our N3 technology will use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost.

我們的 N3 技術將使用 FinFET 晶體管結構來提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。

Our N3 technology development is on track, with good progress.

我們的N3技術開發步入正軌，進展順利。

N3 risk production is scheduled in 2021, and volume production is targeted in second half of 2022.

N3 風險生產計劃於 2021 年進行，目標是在 2022 年下半年實現量產。

We have already demonstrated 256 megabit SRAM functionality.

我們已經演示了 256 兆比特 SRAM 的功能。

N3 logic test chip is fully functional, with yield ahead of plan.

N3邏輯測試芯片功能齊全，良率提前。

The device performance is also on track.

設備性能也步入正軌。

Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced, which will further extend our leadership position well into the future.

我們的 3 納米技術在推出時將成為 PPA 和晶體管技術中最先進的代工技術，這將進一步擴大我們在未來的領先地位。

Finally, let me talk about our U.S. fab plan.

最後說說我們的美國晶圓廠計劃。

On May 15, we announced our intention to build an advanced semiconductor fab in the U.S. We have received a commitment to support this project from both the U.S. federal government and the State of Arizona.

5 月 15 日，我們宣布打算在美國建造一座先進的半導體工廠。我們已收到美國聯邦政府和亞利桑那州的支持該項目的承諾。

We are working closely with them as well as our supply chain partners to build an effective supply chain and make up the cost gap.

我們正在與他們以及我們的供應鏈合作夥伴密切合作，以建立有效的供應鏈並彌補成本差距。

This fab will start with 5-nanometer technology with 20,000 wafer per month capacity.

該工廠將從 5 納米技術開始，每月產能為 20,000 片晶圓。

Production is targeted to begin in 2024.

生產計劃於 2024 年開始。

The U.S. fab will enable TSMC to expand our technology ecosystem and better service our customer and partners.

美國晶圓廠將使台積電能夠擴展我們的技術生態系統並更好地服務我們的客戶和合作夥伴。

At the same time, as TSMC global presence increases, it will allow us to better reach global talent to sustain our technology leadership.

同時，隨著台積電全球影響力的增加，這將使我們能夠更好地接觸全球人才，以維持我們的技術領先地位。

Now let me turn the microphone over to our CFO.

現在讓我把麥克風交給我們的首席財務官。

Thank you, C.C.

謝謝你，C.C.

Let me start by making some comments on our second half profitability outlook.

首先讓我對下半年的盈利前景發表一些評論。

We have just guided third quarter 2020 gross margin to decline by 2 percentage points sequentially to 51% at the midpoint primarily due to the margin dilution from the initial ramp-up of our 5-nanometer technology in the third quarter and a less-favorable foreign exchange rate.

我們剛剛指導 2020 年第三季度毛利率連續下降 2 個百分點至中點的 51%，這主要是由於第三季度我們 5 納米技術的初始提升導致的利潤率稀釋以及不太有利的外國匯率。

As compared with our expectation 3 months ago, our third quarter gross margin midpoint is higher, mainly supported by a high level of overall capacity utilization despite the uncertainty from COVID-19.

與我們 3 個月前的預期相比，我們第三季度的毛利率中點更高，這主要得益於儘管 COVID-19 存在不確定性，但整體產能利用率較高。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect the continuous steep ramp-up of our 5-nanometer to dilute our fourth quarter gross margin by about 2 to 3 percentage points.

展望第四季度，我們預計我們 5 納米的持續急劇增長將稀釋我們第四季度的毛利率約 2 至 3 個百分點。

Now let me talk about our capital budget for this year.

現在讓我談談我們今年的資本預算。

Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the next few years.

每年，我們的資本支出都用於預期未來幾年的增長。

While the impact of COVID-19 virus brings uncertainties in 2020, we have seen our business holding up well, so far, thanks to our technology leadership at 5- and 7-nanometer nodes.

儘管 COVID-19 病毒的影響在 2020 年帶來了不確定性，但由於我們在 5 納米和 7 納米節點方面的技術領先地位，到目前為止，我們的業務表現良好。

Looking ahead, the multiyear megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications are expected to continue to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years.

展望未來，5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年大趨勢預計將在未來幾年繼續推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。

In order to meet this demand and support our customers' capacity needs, we have decided to raise our full year 2020 CapEx to be between USD 16 billion to USD 17 billion.

為了滿足這一需求並支持我們客戶的產能需求，我們決定將 2020 年全年的資本支出提高到 160 億美元至 170 億美元之間。

We also reiterate that TSMC is committed to sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and quarterly basis.

我們還重申，台積電致力於每年和每季度的可持續現金股息。

That concludes my key messages.

我的關鍵信息到此結束。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的聲明到此結束。

(Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

（操作員說明）如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理人員回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session.

（操作員說明）現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

接線員，請接聽線路上的第一個來電者。

The first to ask questions, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

第一個提問的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Great results in a tough time.

艱難時期的偉大成果。

Just a quick question on how we think about N3's development.

關於我們如何看待 N3 的發展的快速問題。

Do we feel that N3 -- since we're talking about mass production in the second half of 2022, usually, the new nodes start sometime in Q2.

我們是否覺得 N3——因為我們談論的是 2022 年下半年的量產，通常新節點會在第二季度的某個時候開始。

I just wanted to understand.

我只是想明白。

Are we thinking about a slightly slower ramp for N3 compared to what we've had in the first year for N5 as well as N7?

與第一年的 N5 和 N7 相比，我們是否正在考慮讓 N3 的增長速度稍微慢一些？

That is my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is when we think about leading edge, once the U.S. regulation starts to come in, how do we think about managing capacity?

我的第二個問題是，當我們考慮領先優勢時，一旦美國監管開始生效，我們如何考慮管理能力？

Do we feel that the capacity can get filled up relatively quickly once, one of our leading customers, you have to start shipment to them?

我們是否覺得一旦我們的主要客戶之一的產能可以相對快速地填滿，您必須開始向他們發貨？

Or do we feel that there could be a couple of -- there could be some time where there could be a little bit of underutilization?

或者我們是否認為可能會有一些時間 - 可能會有一些未充分利用的時間？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Let me try to -- allow me to summarize your question.

讓我試著——讓我總結一下你的問題。

Your first question is related to N3.

您的第一個問題與 N3 有關。

How do we think about the N3 development?

我們如何看待N3的發展？

We have said the mass production timing is in second half '22 versus typically the second quarter, so should we expect a slightly lower ramp of N3?

我們已經說過量產時間是在 22 年下半年，而不是通常在第二季度，那麼我們是否應該期望 N3 的斜率略低？

This is your first question.

這是你的第一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer that, Gokul.

讓我來回答這個問題，Gokul。

In fact, we develop our new leading-edge technology.

事實上，我們正在開發新的前沿技術。

We work closely with our customer.

我們與客戶密切合作。

So the schedule and also the ramp-up, also the progress, we're all working with customer closely and determine when and -- to be the best timing.

因此，時間表和加速，還有進展，我們都在與客戶密切合作，並確定何時——成為最佳時機。

So far, our N3 development is very smooth and successful.

至此，我們的N3開發非常順利，非常成功。

And we still target the risk production in next year and ramp-up in the second half.

我們仍然將明年的風險生產和下半年的增長作為目標。

There's -- all the schedule is working with our customers.

有——所有的時間表都在與我們的客戶合作。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Gokul, your second question is on the leading edge and in light of the recent U.S. regulations.

然後，Gokul，你的第二個問題是關於前沿問題，並考慮到美國最近的法規。

How will we manage our capacity at the leading edge?

我們將如何管理前沿能力？

Will we see a gap in the utilization?

我們會看到利用率上的差距嗎？

Or will we be able to fill it up?

或者我們能填滿它嗎？

It should be no problem because of -- as we just stated, that the 5Gs megatrend and also HPC-related application continue to be very strong.

這應該沒問題，因為——正如我們剛才所說，5G 大趨勢以及與 HPC 相關的應用程序仍然非常強勁。

And we observed that all our customer are very actively prepared for these 2 application, 5G and HPC.

我們觀察到我們所有的客戶都非常積極地為這 2 個應用程序、5G 和 HPC 做好準備。

In addition to that, we also observed that our customers are -- try to secure their supply chain security and which is very important with this COVID-19's uncertainty.

除此之外，我們還觀察到我們的客戶——試圖確保他們的供應鏈安全，這對於 COVID-19 的不確定性非常重要。

Let me add...

讓我補充...

Do we, do you feel that even for N5 that is applicable?

我們，您是否覺得即使對於 N5 也適用？

Or...

要么...

Yes.

是的。

Even with N5, yes.

即使是 N5，是的。

Let me add to that.

讓我補充一點。

I think, for the short term, some impact is inevitable.

我認為，就短期而言，一些影響是不可避免的。

Currently we work closely with a customer very dynamically, trying to fill up the capacity.

目前，我們非常動態地與客戶密切合作，試圖填補產能。

And for the long term, as C.C. mentioned, we are very -- we're still optimistic.

從長遠來看，作為 C.C.提到，我們非常 - 我們仍然很樂觀。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Next to ask questions, Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

接下來要提問的是里昂證券的Sebastian Hou。

So my first one is I wanted to get some -- pick your brain about how do you evaluate the feasibility and possibility of building up an advanced node fab without American contents, be it technology equivalent IP material, et cetera, in the next 5 years or 10 years or even longer.

所以我的第一個想法是，我想了解一些 - 想想你如何評估在未來 5 年內建立一個沒有美國內容的先進節點工廠的可行性和可能性，無論是技術等效的 IP 材料等等或10年甚至更長時間。

Is it worth it?

這值得麼？

Or even if it takes a long time and tremendous efforts, would TSMC ever consider that?

或者即使需要很長的時間和巨大的努力，台積電會考慮嗎？

Well, let me answer that question.

好吧，讓我回答這個問題。

We know that a U.S. fab, as compared with a fab in Taiwan, the cost structure is actually a little bit higher.

我們知道，美國的晶圓廠，相對於台灣的晶圓廠，成本結構其實要高一點。

And that's why we say that we are working with the federal government and also the State of Arizona to close the gap.

這就是為什麼我們說我們正在與聯邦政府和亞利桑那州合作以縮小差距。

Yes.

是的。

Sorry.

對不起。

Just to repeat the question.

只是重複這個問題。

I think Sebastian's question is asking about building up an advanced node fab or production line without using any so-called American contents whether in terms of equipment, technology or IP materials.

我想塞巴斯蒂安的問題是問在不使用任何所謂的美國內容的情況下建立一個先進的節點工廠或生產線，無論是在設備、技術還是IP材料方面。

He wants to know, in the next 5 to 10 years, is it feasible?

他想知道，未來5到10年，是否可行？

Is it worth it?

這值得麼？

And is this something that TSMC would consider?

這是台積電會考慮的事情嗎？

Let me pick up this one here.

讓我在這裡拿起這個。

The semiconductor technology is very unique in this industry.

半導體技術在這個行業非常獨特。

The technology continue to improve.

技術不斷改進。

Every 2 years, there will be a new generation of technology come out to serve the best-performance product.

每 2 年，就會有新一代的技術問世，為性能最佳的產品服務。

And therefore, we -- I think our main force is still pursuing the technology leadership, trying to overcome each generation's challenge.

因此，我們——我認為我們的主要力量仍在追求技術領先地位，努力克服每一代人的挑戰。

And to do that, I think our current focus is still working with our equipment partners, dealing with -- utilize the best of the kind equipment that we can have to pursue our business growth.

為此，我認為我們目前的重點仍然是與我們的設備合作夥伴合作，處理——利用我們可以擁有的最好的設備來追求我們的業務增長。

So you're right, to -- if we do that otherwise, technology advancement will be extremely challenging.

所以你是對的，如果我們不這樣做，技術進步將極具挑戰性。

It will be extremely difficult, not to talk about 5 to 10 years alone.

這將是非常困難的，更不用說5到10年了。

So that is not our current effort at this point.

所以這不是我們目前的工作。

Okay.

好的。

Sebastian, do you have a second question?

塞巴斯蒂安，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Second question is I'd like to follow on the -- ask about the inventory situation.

第二個問題是我想跟進——詢問庫存情況。

The first, could you -- can you update us on how you see the fabless days of inventory at the end of Q2 and how you see that in the second half this year?

首先，你能不能告訴我們你如何看待第二季度末的無晶圓廠庫存天數以及今年下半年的情況？

And also on the inventory side, it looks like it's getting increasingly difficult to look at the inventory from a comprehensive perspective.

而且在庫存方面，從全面的角度來看庫存似乎越來越困難。

Fabless DOI may not be enough because apparently there is a lot of the Chinese companies stockpile the inventory in fear of being sanctioned.

Fabless DOI 可能還不夠，因為顯然有很多中國公司因為害怕受到製裁而囤積庫存。

And also, across the board globally, the whole supply chain has been raising the [fixed store level] inventory in the past few months in fear of supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19, so -- but those are not reflected in fabless DOI.

而且，在全球範圍內，由於擔心 COVID-19 造成供應鏈中斷，整個供應鏈在過去幾個月一直在提高 [固定商店水平] 庫存，所以 - 但這些並未反映在無晶圓廠 DOI 中.

So how do we see about this inventory and potentially hidden excessive inventory situation going forward, which could -- do you concern about that to be a potential overhang at some point the destocking could come?

那麼我們如何看待這種庫存以及未來可能隱藏的過度庫存情況，這可能 - 你是否擔心在某個時候去庫存可能會成為潛在的過剩？

Okay.

好的。

Let me summarize your second question, Sebastian.

讓我總結一下你的第二個問題，塞巴斯蒂安。

Both of it relates to the inventory situation.

兩者都與庫存情況有關。

The first part is what is -- for TSMC tracking of fabless customers, what is the fabless DOI exiting 2Q and the outlook into second half?

第一部分是什麼——對於台積電無晶圓廠客戶的跟踪，第二季度的無晶圓廠 DOI 和下半年的展望是什麼？

That's the first part of your question.

這是你問題的第一部分。

And then your second part of your question is are we concerned that the inventory may -- situation may see some hidden or discrepancies due to whether it's COVID-related supply chain disruption or the U.S. regulation and such?

然後你的問題的第二部分是我們是否擔心庫存可能 - 由於與 COVID 相關的供應鏈中斷或美國監管等原因，情況可能會出現一些隱藏或差異？

Will this lead to a hidden inventory risk?

這是否會導致隱藏的庫存風險？

And is there a risk of inventory correction?

是否存在庫存修正風險？

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer that.

讓我來回答。

The inventory level of our fabless customers that we track exited first quarter above the seasonal level.

我們跟踪的無晶圓廠客戶的庫存水平在第一季度高於季節性水平。

We expect a further increase in second quarter and then stay at a high level in the second half, as the supply chain is making efforts to ensure supply chain security and our customers are in high anticipation and preparing for new 5G smartphone product launches in the second half of this year.

我們預計第二季度將進一步增長，然後在下半年保持在較高水平，因為供應鏈正在努力確保供應鏈安全，我們的客戶對第二季度新的 5G 智能手機產品發布有很高的期待和準備今年的一半。

We cannot rule out the possibility of an inventory correction sometime down the road.

我們不能排除未來某個時候庫存修正的可能性。

We observe the supply chain active making efforts to ensure the securities and active preparation for 5G smartphone launches.

我們觀察到供應鏈積極努力確保 5G 智能手機發布的安全和積極準備。

We will just have to wait and see how the sell-through goes.

我們只需要等待，看看銷售情況如何。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Sebastian.

謝謝你，塞巴斯蒂安。

The next caller is Bill Lu from UBS.

下一位來電者是來自瑞銀的 Bill Lu。

Yes.

是的。

I'm wondering if you can comment on the CapEx guidance for this year.

我想知道您是否可以評論今年的資本支出指南。

It's now raised to USD 16 billion to USD 17 billion.

現在已提高到 160 億美元至 170 億美元。

I'm wondering what that increase is, whether it's 5-nanometer or it was something different.

我想知道增加的是什麼，是 5 納米還是其他東西。

Secondly, related to that, can you talk about your CapEx intensity structurally, whether this increase is temporary and whether this is pulled in from next year, therefore maintaining the longer-driven intensity?

其次，與此相關，您能否從結構上談談您的資本支出強度，這種增長是否是暫時的，是否從明年開始，從而保持長期驅動的強度？

Or how we should think about that.

或者我們應該如何考慮。

Okay.

好的。

Let me summarize your 2 questions, Bill.

讓我總結一下你的兩個問題，比爾。

Your first question is in relation to our 2020 CapEx guidance and the range of USD 16 billion to USD 17 billion.

您的第一個問題與我們的 2020 年資本支出指南和 160 億美元至 170 億美元的範圍有關。

So Bill wants to know what is driving this increase and then secondly, in terms of the capital intensity outlook over the next few years.

所以比爾想知道是什麼推動了這種增長，其次，就未來幾年的資本密集度前景而言。

Okay.

好的。

The CapEx increase from 3 months ago for this year is basically comes from the advanced technologies.

今年CapEx較3個月前的增長，基本上是來自於先進技術。

And the capital intensity this year will be slightly lower than 40%, and over the long term, it will gradually go down to about mid-30s.

而今年的資金密集度會略低於40%，長期來看，會逐漸下降到30多歲左右。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

The next caller is Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

下一位來電者是來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I wanted to ask about your relationship with Huawei and how you see the impacts of the U.S. regulation on your business with Huawei in the second half of the year.

我想問一下您與華為的關係，您如何看待下半年美國監管對您與華為業務的影響。

My understanding is that you will still have a relationship, you will still be shipping wafers probably at elevated levels in Q3.

我的理解是你們仍然會有關係，你們在第三季度仍然會以較高的水平出貨晶圓。

But can you confirm whether or not you have any sales with Huawei in Q4?

但是您能否確認您在第四季度是否與華為有任何銷售？

And if not, how do you manage your 5-nanometer utilization given the importance of Huawei as a customer?

如果不是，考慮到華為作為客戶的重要性，您如何管理 5 納米的利用率？

Okay.

好的。

Let me summarize your question, Brett.

讓我總結一下你的問題，布雷特。

It is regard to the relationship with Huawei but wants to know what is the impact on our business from Huawei in the second half of this year.

是關於和華為的關係，但是想知道今年下半年華為對我們的業務有什麼影響。

Will we continue to ship wafers to this customer in the fourth quarter?

第四季度我們會繼續給這個客戶出貨晶圓嗎？

If we do not, then how will we manage the impact to our 5-nanometer?

如果我們不這樣做，那麼我們將如何管理對 5 納米的影響？

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer your question.

讓我回答你的問題。

As C.C. just reported, we are complying fully with all the regulation.

作為 C.C.剛剛報導，我們完全遵守所有規定。

And we did not take any new orders or production starts from this customer since May 15.

自 5 月 15 日以來，我們沒有接到該客戶的任何新訂單或開始生產。

Although this regulation is just finished their public comment period, the BIS has not did a final ruling change at this point.

儘管該法規剛剛結束其公眾意見徵詢期，但 BIS 目前尚未做出最終裁決變更。

And so it's very early, still early to confirm, but under this current status, we do not plan to ship wafers after September 14.

所以現在確認還為時過早，還早，但在目前的情況下，我們不打算在9月14日之後出貨晶圓。

And yes, there will be a challenge to work dynamically with other customers.

是的，與其他客戶動態合作將是一個挑戰。

That's currently we are working with them.

目前我們正在與他們合作。

And -- but as you heard, we made a -- C.C. just made of -- our 2020's guidance is above 20%.

而且 - 但正如你所聽到的，我們做了一個 - C.C.剛剛 - 我們 2020 年的指導高於 20%。

That tells you we are relatively progressing well in filling up the left -- capacity left open.

這告訴你我們在填補左邊的能力方面取得了相對較好的進展——剩餘的容量。

Okay.

好的。

Brett, thank you.

布雷特，謝謝你。

Do you have a second question?

你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, just a follow-up.

是的，只是一個跟進。

I wanted to ask about depreciation for this year.

我想問一下今年的折舊。

I think previously you talked about mid- to high-teen growth of depreciation in 2020.

我想你之前談到過 2020 年折舊的中高位增長。

Can you confirm whether that's still the case?

你能證實現在是否仍然如此嗎？

And I look at the first half depreciation, and it looks like depreciation costs were down year-on-year.

我看上半年的折舊，折舊成本同比下降了。

And so in order to get to the mid- to high-teens growth, that would imply a large increase in depreciation sort of in the third and the fourth quarter.

因此，為了實現中高十幾位的增長，這意味著第三和第四季度的折舊率會大幅增加。

So if you can just clarify exactly how we should think about depreciation for the next couple of quarters, that would be great.

因此，如果您能準確說明我們應該如何考慮接下來幾個季度的折舊，那就太好了。

Okay.

好的。

Brett is asking.

布雷特在問。

His second question is our depreciation outlook for 2020.

他的第二個問題是我們對 2020 年的貶值前景。

Do we still maintain what is our depreciation for 2020 year-on-year?

我們是否仍維持 2020 年的折舊率？

And then does this imply a pickup in depreciation in the second half on a quarterly basis?

那麼這是否意味著下半年貶值將按季度加速？

Okay.

好的。

Brett, our current estimate on 2020 depreciation year-on-year growth is still high-teens growth.

布雷特，我們目前對 2020 年折舊同比增長的估計仍然是高增長。

So that gives you an idea of what the second half depreciation will be.

這樣您就可以了解下半年的折舊情況。

It will be higher than the first half.

會高於上半年。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Brett.

謝謝你，布雷特。

The next one on the line is Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一位是來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I want to go back to your N4 and N3.

我想回到你的 N4 和 N3。

And how should we think about the migration and specifically to what extent this is driven by converting rather than installing new equipment?

我們應該如何考慮遷移，特別是在多大程度上是由轉換而不是安裝新設備驅動的？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Okay.

好的。

Sorry, Mehdi.

對不起，邁赫迪。

Let me make sure we understood your first question.

讓我確保我們理解您的第一個問題。

You're asking about N4 and N3, how to think about the migration.

你問的是 N4 和 N3，如何考慮遷移。

And is there a conversion, tool conversion, involved between N4 and N3?

以及N4和N3之間是否涉及轉換，工具轉換？

Is that your question?

那是你的問題嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Actually, the N4 is a kind of improvement, continuous improvement, from N5.

實際上，N4是一種改進，是對N5的不斷改進。

So it has a new -- improved the speed, improved the geometry just a little bit.

所以它有一個新的——提高了速度，稍微改進了幾何形狀。

N3 is totally a new node, all right?

N3 完全是一個新節點，好嗎？

So that's N4 using the same equipment as N5.

這就是 N4 使用與 N5 相同的設備。

N3, we expect it to have a high percentage of the tool continue to be used from the N5, but N3 is a totally new node.

N3，我們預計它有很高比例的工具繼續從 N5 開始使用，但 N3 是一個全新的節點。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Do you have a second question, Mehdi?

你還有第二個問題嗎，邁赫迪？

Yes.

是的。

And my second question has to do with your HPC revenue growth in Q2.

我的第二個問題與第二季度的 HPC 收入增長有關。

It was significantly higher compared to Q1.

與第一季度相比明顯更高。

Will there be -- can you please elaborate which specific subsegment within HPC is doing better?

是否會有 - 您能否詳細說明 HPC 中的哪個特定子部分做得更好？

Is it driven by Communication or Computer?

它是由通信還是計算機驅動的？

And how do you see those trends trending into Q3?

您如何看待這些趨勢進入第三季度？

So Mehdi, your second question is looking at our HPC sequential growth in the second quarter.

所以 Mehdi，你的第二個問題是看我們第二季度的 HPC 連續增長。

Mehdi wants to know what specific segments are driving that increase.

Mehdi 想知道哪些具體細分市場推動了這一增長。

And what is the outlook?

前景如何？

Well, Mehdi, I don't think we want to break down the details on the different platforms.

好吧，Mehdi，我認為我們不想在不同平台上分解細節。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Okay, Mehdi?

好的，邁赫迪？

The concern is that maybe perhaps Huawei may have pulled in before you stop taking orders.

擔心的是，也許華為可能在你停止接受訂單之前就已經拉進來了。

I'm trying to better understand how that particular customer has procured wafer in the first half versus second half.

我試圖更好地了解該特定客戶在上半年和下半年是如何採購晶圓的。

Sorry, Mehdi.

對不起，邁赫迪。

We -- you know we don't comment on specific customer.

我們——你知道我們不會對特定客戶發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Mehdi.

謝謝你，邁赫迪。

The next one, we're having Randy Abrams from Crédit Suisse.

下一個，我們有來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Randy Abrams。

My first question.

我的第一個問題。

I wanted to ask a bit more on the CapEx rate, as that's more a function of what you mentioned in the forward demand outlook.

我想多問一些關於資本支出率的問題，因為這更多地取決於你在遠期需求展望中提到的內容。

If you could give a view on '21, I know it's in early stage, but just factoring a full year, where you mentioned Huawei and also mentioned potential -- but you don't rule out an inventory correction.

如果你能對 21 年發表看法，我知道它還處於早期階段，但只是考慮了整整一年，你提到了華為，也提到了潛力——但你不排除庫存修正。

And it does seem like Samsung at least is discussing a bit about some graphics and high-end smartphone business.

看起來三星至少正在討論一些圖形和高端智能手機業務。

So I'm curious, I guess, with the CapEx raise.

所以我很好奇，我想，資本支出的提高。

What's driving it?

是什麼驅動它？

If there's certain drivers that maybe lifted on the 2021, how you're seeing that.

如果某些驅動程序可能會在 2021 年提升，那麼您是如何看待的。

And implications -- it follows up on Bill's question, but implication for 2021, if it seems like it might be a bit lower CapEx if you're spending a bit ahead of that now.

和影響——它跟進比爾的問題，但對 2021 年的影響，如果你現在提前花一點錢，資本支出似乎可能會低一些。

Okay.

好的。

So Randy, let me summarize your first question.

蘭迪，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。

Your first question is really what is driving our raise for the 2020 CapEx.

您的第一個問題實際上是什麼推動了我們提高 2020 年資本支出。

What is the drivers for that?

驅動因素是什麼？

And then what is the outlook 2021 CapEx?

那麼 2021 年的資本支出前景如何？

CapEx and sales, the sales just factored in your comments about inventory if your competitor is taking a bit of business and also your view that we could have a -- or don't rule out an inventory adjustment.

資本支出和銷售額，銷售額只是考慮了您對庫存的評論，如果您的競爭對手正在開展一些業務，並且您認為我們可以進行 - 或者不排除庫存調整。

The -- let me discuss.

- 讓我討論一下。

CapEx is a -- we do the CapEx based on long-term perspective.

資本支出是——我們根據長期觀點來進行資本支出。

If you talk about -- this year's CapEx mainly, of course, this shows our demand of N5 is very strong.

如果你主要談論今年的資本支出，當然，這表明我們對 N5 的需求非常強勁。

And if you talk about the next year's CapEx, it's really talk about 2022's demand, which we see the continued increase of N5 demand.

如果你談論明年的資本支出，那實際上是在談論 2022 年的需求，我們看到 N5 需求持續增長。

And also, we see the starting the launch of N3 technology.

而且，我們看到開始推出 N3 技術。

And we'll see by then how much the CapEx will increase, and we report to you in due time.

屆時我們將看到資本支出將增加多少，並在適當的時候向您報告。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have a second question, Randy?

你還有第二個問題嗎，蘭迪？

Yes.

是的。

And if I could follow up because you mentioned like so the higher CapEx for this year is a function that you expect next year to be even stronger.

如果我可以跟進，因為你提到今年更高的資本支出是你預計明年會更強大的功能。

So can you talk a bit about with -- I know you're talking about the megatrends, but I'm curious if you're thinking about just what you mentioned also, like could next year have impact from the high base this year on the inventory buildup and also the full year -- like in the first quarter, if Huawei is out, there's probably pent-up demand being tight, but how do you view a full year if you're not shipping to Huawei?

那麼你能不能談談 - 我知道你在談論大趨勢，但我很好奇你是否也在考慮你提到的內容，比如明年可能會受到今年高基數的影響庫存增加以及全年 - 就像第一季度一樣，如果華為出局，可能會出現被壓抑的需求緊張，但如果你不向華為發貨，你如何看待全年？

Unless you're counting on, by that point, some partial license to -- or if in the base case you're assuming not shipping to Huawei next year.

除非你指望到那時，一些部分許可 - 或者如果在基本情況下你假設明年不發貨給華為。

Okay, Randy's second question.

好的，蘭迪的第二個問題。

He wants to -- he is thinking that, with potential possibility of inventory correction with the U.S. regulations, will that impact?

他想——他在想，隨著美國法規的庫存修正的潛在可能性，這會產生影響嗎？

What is the impact to 2021 growth outlook and CapEx?

對 2021 年增長前景和資本支出有何影響？

Yes.

是的。

Randy, it's just too early for us to discuss anything about 2021, so we'll just wait until when the time approaches.

蘭迪，我們現在討論任何關於 2021 年的事情還為時過早，所以我們會等到時間臨近的時候再說。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Randy.

謝謝你，蘭迪。

The next one is Roland Shu from Citigroup.

下一位是來自花旗集團的Roland Shu。

First question is can you remind me again how does the inventory variation adjustment work every quarter.

第一個問題是你能再次提醒我每個季度的庫存變化調整是如何工作的嗎？

How about with 3Q?

3Q怎麼樣？

Is this inventory valuation adjustment favorable or unfavorable to the gross margin?

此次存貨估值調整對毛利率有利還是不利？

It's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

And second question actually is you talk about that you are working with customers to minimize the impact of U.S. new regulation.

第二個問題實際上是你談到你正在與客戶合作，以盡量減少美國新法規的影響。

How are you going to do -- are working on that?

你打算怎麼做 - 正在努力嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Roland, your 2 questions.

那麼 Roland，你的 2 個問題。

Your first question is what is the impact of inventory revaluation?

您的第一個問題是庫存重估的影響是什麼？

And then in the third quarter, will it be a favorable or unfavorable impact?

然後在第三季度，它是有利的還是不利的影響？

And your second question is you want to know how we are dynamically working with customers to mitigate the impact of the new U.S. regulation.

你的第二個問題是你想知道我們如何與客戶動態合作以減輕美國新法規的影響。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Let me -- Roland, let me make some comments on the inventory valuation adjustment first.

讓我——羅蘭，讓我先對庫存估值調整髮表一些評論。

The impact on margins from inventory valuation adjustment is inversely correlated to that from changes in utilization.

庫存估值調整對利潤率的影響與利用率變化的影響呈負相關。

We normally report the net impact on margins from these 2 factors together.

我們通常會同時報告這兩個因素對利潤率的淨影響。

When we compare margins quarter-over-quarter, we will report the Q-on-Q change in impact from inventory valuation adjustments when it is more significant.

當我們按季度比較利潤率時，我們將報告存貨估值調整影響的 Q-on-Q 變化，當它更重要時。

In the second quarter, the quarter-over-quarter change in impact from inventory valuation adjustments was more significant.

二季度，存貨估值調整影響的環比變化更為顯著。

And if you ask about third quarter, at this moment, we believe the impact is less significant.

如果你問第三季度，目前，我們認為影響不那麼顯著。

Okay.

好的。

And then...

接著...

Let me -- he's asking about how we work with customers dynamically to mitigate the impact of what we've done.

讓我 - 他問我們如何與客戶動態合作以減輕我們所做工作的影響。

I cannot tell you that -- how we are going to do it because of this is our company's strategy and our strengths, but one thing I can tell you, we are based on the technology leadership and excellent manufacturing.

我不能告訴你——我們將如何去做，因為這是我們公司的戰略和我們的優勢，但我可以告訴你一件事，我們基於技術領先和卓越的製造。

That's all we did.

這就是我們所做的一切。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next questions, Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

接下來的問題，查理陳，摩根士丹利。

So my first question is really about your upward revision of the full year revenue guidance.

所以我的第一個問題是關於你對全年收入指導的上調。

So compared to last time, it was at mid-5% to 10%, and now it's above 20%.

所以和上次相比，是5%到10%左右，現在是20%以上。

I think there's at least 5 percentage points of revenue growth in 2020, but last time, your assumption is that pandemic can get controlled by June.

我認為 2020 年的收入增長至少有 5 個百分點，但上次，你的假設是大流行病可以在 6 月得到控制。

And now currently, there is a second-wave pandemics in many countries.

現在，許多國家都出現了第二波大流行病。

So how are you going to reconcile this kind of weak economy or health care crisis issue versus your very strong revenue guidance?

那麼，您將如何調和這種疲軟的經濟或醫療保健危機問題與您非常強勁的收入指導？

Should I just attribute that to the higher 5G smartphone penetration?

我是否應該將其歸因於更高的 5G 智能手機普及率？

Or there's other factors that we should pay attention to.

或者還有其他我們應該注意的因素。

Okay.

好的。

Let me summarize your first question, Charlie.

讓我總結一下你的第一個問題，查理。

You're asking basically we have increased the full year outlook, but the risk of COVID-19 continues to remain.

你問的基本上是我們增加了全年展望，但 COVID-19 的風險仍然存在。

So how to reconcile a weak global economy with TSMC's full year outlook.

那麼如何協調疲軟的全球經濟與台積電的全年展望。

And what peak -- will be driving this besides 5G smartphone preparation?

除了 5G 智能手機準備之外，還有什麼高峰會推動這一點？

Well, Charlie, we do observe the 5Gs smartphone, the momentum is getting stronger, is -- so we understand the situation.

好吧，查理，我們確實觀察到 5G 智能手機，勢頭越來越強，是——所以我們了解情況。

However, we also observe that our customer are making efforts to ensure supply chain security.

但是，我們也觀察到我們的客戶正在努力確保供應鏈安全。

So bear in mind as there is a second wave, third wave of COVID-19, but it seems that end demand looks very promising.

所以請記住，因為有第二波、第三波 COVID-19，但最終需求看起來非常有希望。

So they are not afraid of -- to make sure that their supply chain will not be disrupted.

所以他們不害怕 - 確保他們的供應鏈不會中斷。

Because of 5G, as you just mentioned, 5G smartphones demand is continuing to increase.

因為5G，正如你剛才提到的，5G智能手機的需求正在持續增長。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have a second question, Charlie?

你還有第二個問題嗎，查理？

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

So I think a lot of things happened over the past months, right?

所以我認為過去幾個月發生了很多事情，對吧？

Another thing, I would take it as a U-turn, is your decision for the U.S. fab intentions because, half year ago, I remember, the comment was like the cost is pretty high.

另一件事，我認為這是一個掉頭，是你對美國晶圓廠意圖的決定，因為我記得半年前，評論說成本相當高。

Logistics doesn't make sense.

物流沒有意義。

So what exactly is the trigger for you to change this U.S. operations decision?

那麼，究竟是什麼觸發了您改變這一美國業務決策？

And it would be very kind of you if I can add a very small question because the investors may care as well, your fourth quarter seasonality.

如果我可以添加一個非常小的問題，那將非常友好，因為投資者可能也會關心你的第四季度季節性。

Because based on your new full year guidance, if we will take it at the 20% or 21% lower bar, the fourth quarter revenues may decline sequentially.

因為根據您新的全年指導，如果我們將其降低 20% 或 21%，第四季度的收入可能會連續下降。

Is that a kind of fair comment?

這是一種公平的評論嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Well, Charlie, your second question relates to our U.S. fab plan.

好吧，查理，你的第二個問題與我們的美國晶圓廠計劃有關。

And you want to know why, 6 months ago, we were talking about the cost gap being the major challenge.

你想知道為什麼 6 個月前，我們在談論成本差距是主要挑戰。

And now we have decided to go ahead, so what has changed?

現在我們決定繼續前進，那麼改變了什麼？

Yes, on that figure, yes.

是的，在那個數字上，是的。

Well, as you know, the -- with expanding our technology ecosystem and reach to global talent, closer to our customer to get a better service are all benefits of the fab in U.S., but in the past, indeed the cost, the gap, prohibited us to make those decisions.

好吧，正如你所知，隨著我們的技術生態系統的擴展和對全球人才的影響，更接近我們的客戶以獲得更好的服務，這些都是美國晶圓廠的優勢，但在過去，成本、差距、禁止我們做出這些決定。

More recently, I think since last December, and -- I think the things is getting a turn.

最近，我認為自去年 12 月以來，我認為事情正在發生轉變。

And we did get a positive encouragement from the U.S. administration and about the cost gap.

我們確實得到了美國政府和成本差距的積極鼓勵。

Then actually, the U.S. administration and the State of Arizona combined, they do -- they seem to be able to close the cost gap we used to hold up against this decision with their commitment, and we are preparing for that.

然後實際上，美國政府和亞利桑那州聯合起來，他們這樣做了——他們似乎能夠通過他們的承諾縮小我們過去用來反對這一決定的成本差距，我們正在為此做準備。

And how do they close the cost gap?

他們如何縮小成本差距？

As you have been reading, we -- the U.S. congress, both in Senate and House, are all driving for the incentive packages aimed at revive U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.

正如您一直在閱讀的那樣，我們——美國國會，無論是參議院還是眾議院，都在推動旨在振興美國半導體製造業的激勵方案。

And with that, I think they do have a way to fulfill that commitment to make up the cost gap.

因此，我認為他們確實有辦法履行彌補成本差距的承諾。

And that was the major decision turning point.

這是重大決策的轉折點。

And then okay.

然後好吧。

And then, Charlie, he snuck in a third question, which he wants to know our outlook for fourth quarter given the full year guidance.

然後，查理，他偷偷提出了第三個問題，他想根據全年指導了解我們對第四季度的展望。

Okay.

好的。

Well, Charlie, it's also too early to talk about fourth quarter, but I think you can do the math and come up with certain estimation.

好吧，查理，現在談論第四季度還為時過早，但我認為你可以做數學並得出一定的估計。

But what we can say is our second half will be growing, will be higher than the first half.

但我們可以說的是，我們的下半年會增長，會高於上半年。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

下一位要提問的是 Bruce Lu，Goldman Sachs。

I think, given your positive progress in 3 nanometers and 5 nanometers and especially regional CapEx, can we assume that -- similar to previous node like 7-nanometer or 12 millimeters, that the first year of 3 nanometers can achieve 10% of the wafer revenue and second year of the 5-nanometer can achieve 30% of the wafer revenues?

我認為，鑑於你們在 3 納米和 5 納米，尤其是區域性資本支出方面取得的積極進展，我們是否可以假設——類似於之前的節點，如 7 納米或 12 毫米，3 納米的第一年可以達到晶圓的 10% 5納米營收和第二年能否實現晶圓營收的30%？

Okay.

好的。

So Bruce, your first question is regards to N5 and N3.

Bruce，你的第一個問題是關於 N5 和 N3。

Bruce wants to know what's the progress in N3.

Bruce 想知道 N3 的進展情況。

Can it be -- contribute 10% of the wafer revenue in the first year?

可以——第一年貢獻10%的晶圓收入嗎？

And he also wants to know, can N5 contribute 30% of the wafer revenue in its second year?

而他也想知道，N5第二年能否貢獻30%的晶圓收入？

Okay.

好的。

Bruce, both of them are really too early to talk about it.

布魯斯，他們兩個現在談這個真的太早了。

We certainly hope that there will be pretty big nodes, but we will definitely let you know when time is closer.

我們當然希望會有相當大的節點，但我們一定會在時間臨近時通知您。

Do you have a second question, Bruce?

你還有第二個問題嗎，布魯斯？

Yes.

是的。

I think that -- I think just probably to check, we released our 5G penetration shipment or forecast, so we lowered the overall smartphone shipment forecast for 2020.

我認為 - 我認為可能只是為了檢查，我們發布了我們的 5G 滲透出貨量或預測，因此我們降低了 2020 年的整體智能手機出貨量預測。

And how about the actual number for the 5G smartphone shipment?

5G智能手機的實際出貨量如何？

Is that -- the penetration is up because of the lower total smartphone shipment?

那是——滲透率上升是因為智能手機總出貨量下降？

Or the 5G smartphone shipment itself is going up as well.

或者 5G 智能手機出貨量本身也在上升。

Okay.

好的。

So your question, second question, Bruce, is that we -- the global smartphone shipment, we now lowered to low-teens decline, but we raised the 5G penetration to high teens.

所以你的問題，第二個問題，布魯斯，我們 - 全球智能手機出貨量，我們現在下降到低十幾歲，但我們將 5G 普及率提高到十幾歲。

Is this simply because of a lower -- smaller global base?

這僅僅是因為較低的——較小的全球基數嗎？

Or what is the 5G penetration number?

或者5G普及率是多少？

Well, the 5G penetration, as I said, momentum continued to increase.

好吧，正如我所說，5G 普及勢頭繼續增加。

So even with the total smartphone number being decreased, say, at the low teens, but 5G's percentage continued to increase.

因此，即使智能手機總數有所下降，比如說，在十幾歲左右，但 5G 的比例仍在繼續增加。

And that's what we observe.

這就是我們觀察到的。

And also, the 5G's semiconductors content is higher than the 4G, and especially high end is much higher.

而且5G的半導體含量比4G要高，尤其是高端的要高很多。

So that's what we based on.

這就是我們的基礎。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bruce.

謝謝你，布魯斯。

The next on the line is Aaron Jeng from Nomura Securities.

下一位是來自野村證券的 Aaron Jeng。

Can I have a follow-up to Bruce's question just right now?

我現在可以跟進 Bruce 的問題嗎？

He was asking -- by lowering the total smartphone demand to low teens -- down 10% to 15% now from the earlier version of down 5% to 10% but raising the 5G penetration rate to 15% to 20% from earlier, only meeting, say, 15%.

他要求 - 通過將智能手機的總需求降低到十幾歲 - 現在從早期版本下降 5% 到 10% 下降 10% 到 15%，但將 5G 普及率從早期提高到 15% 到 20%，僅會議，比如說，15%。

And -- but in terms of absolute 5G phones demand or sell-in number, is the number being raised?

而且——但就 5G 手機的絕對需求或銷售數量而言，這個數字是否有所提高？

Or it's still pretty much the same as the prior versions.

或者它仍然與以前的版本幾乎相同。

That's a follow-up.

這是後續行動。

Actually this is the first -- a part of my first question, but it just happens to be a follow-up to Bruce's question.

實際上，這是第一個——我第一個問題的一部分，但它恰好是 Bruce 問題的後續問題。

Okay.

好的。

Aaron, let me summarize your first question.

亞倫，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。

Basically, Aaron wants to know with -- is the -- is our forecast for 5G smartphone in terms of units increased?

基本上，Aaron 想知道——我們對 5G 智能手機出貨量的預測是否有所增加？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

Okay.

好的。

What is your second question?

你的第二個問題是什麼？

Okay, okay, let me -- so okay, let's ask my -- this question, that what -- and I was trying to compare the outlook offered by TSMC for the industry and the outlook given in the year beginning 6 months ago.

好的，好的，讓我 - 好吧，讓我們問我 - 這個問題，那是什麼 - 我試圖比較台積電為該行業提供的前景和 6 個月前開始的一年中給出的前景。

And in the beginning, TSMC was saying that semi excluding memory was going to grow by 8%.

一開始，台積電說不包括內存的半導體將增長 8%。

And now it's going to be flattish to slightly grow, which means, I think, overall demand including everything is lower than it was 6 months ago.

現在它會略微增長持平，這意味著，我認為，包括一切在內的整體需求低於 6 個月前。

The foundry growth in the year beginning was 17%, but now it's pretty much unchanged at mid- to high-teens growth.

年初的代工增長率為 17%，但現在幾乎沒有變化，處於中高位增長。

TSMC's growth in the year beginning was above the industry growth.

台積電年初的增長高於行業增長。

Now it's above 20% growth.

現在它的增長率超過 20%。

Okay, so my question is, over the last 6 months, TSMC, along with actually everyone in the world, particularly in tech, has experienced 2 difficult challenges, including, one, COVID-19; and two, Huawei issues.

好吧，我的問題是，在過去的 6 個月裡，台積電以及世界上實際上每個人，尤其是科技界的每個人，都經歷了 2 個艱難的挑戰，其中一個是 COVID-19；另一個是 COVID-19。第二，華為問題。

But it turns out that TSMC is doing even better than there was no 2 -- these issues.

但事實證明，台積電在這些問題上比沒有 2 時做得更好。

And so I wonder -- actually, I think the CEO already answered that the 5G absolute unit demand is going to be higher than you saw 6 months ago, which is one, I think, a key reason, but it looks to me that the 2 factors -- 2 negative factors are still huge.

所以我想知道——實際上，我認為 CEO 已經回答說 5G 絕對單位需求將比你 6 個月前看到的更高，我認為這是一個關鍵原因，但在我看來2個因素——2個負面因素仍然很大。

Actually, one -- either one of them is big, right, so -- but in terms of being greater than -- if there's no these 2 negative impacts.

實際上，如果沒有這兩個負面影響，它們中的任何一個都很大，對，所以 - 但就大於而言。

So how do we think about this?

那麼我們如何看待這個問題呢？

Earlier also, Chairman meant that...

早些時候，主席的意思是......

Aaron, okay, I think -- let me summarize your question because it's quite long.

Aaron，好吧，我想——讓我總結一下你的問題，因為它很長。

I think, to -- in essence, what you're asking is, when you look at the industry framework that TSMC provided in the beginning of the year and you look at the framework now, you point out that the semi ex memory growth in January, we said plus 8%.

我認為，從本質上講，您要問的是，當您查看 TSMC 在年初提供的行業框架以及現在查看該框架時，您會指出 semi ex 內存增長一月份，我們說加 8%。

Now we said flat to slightly up.

現在我們說持平到略微上漲。

Foundry growth in January, we said 17% increase year-on-year.

1月份代工增長，我們說同比增長17%。

Now we say mid- to high teens, but for TSMC, growth we're now saying greater than 20%.

現在我們說中高青少年，但對於台積電，我們現在說的增長超過 20%。

So given the challenges, the -- in this year from COVID-19 and such, what is driving TSMC's stronger growth?

因此，鑑於挑戰，今年 COVID-19 等，是什麼推動了台積電的強勁增長？

Well, I can answer that question by simply one word: technology leadership.

好吧，我可以用一個詞來回答這個問題：技術領先。

Actually, we see a very strong demand from our 7-nanometer and 5 nanometers technology.

實際上，我們看到 7 納米和 5 納米技術的需求非常強勁。

And 5G -- again I would like to say that 5G's momentum is getting strong, including also HPC -- I'm sorry.

而 5G——我想再次說 5G 的勢頭越來越強勁，包括 HPC——我很抱歉。

Okay -- it's all right, yes.

好的——沒關係，是的。

All right, thank you.

好噠。謝謝你們。

Next, we're having Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

接下來，我們有來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

First of all, I just wanted to understand.

首先，我只是想了解一下。

We are running at 20-plus-percent growth this year.

我們今年的增長率超過 20%。

Any thoughts on -- I think we expect some of these negatives trends will pass.

關於 - 我認為我們預計其中一些負面趨勢將會過去的任何想法。

Any thoughts on why we aren't changing our long-term 5% to 10% target, especially given you're also spending more CapEx?

關於為什麼我們不改變 5% 到 10% 的長期目標有什麼想法，特別是考慮到您也在花費更多的資本支出嗎？

So if ROIC is similar, then probably you need to be at a slightly higher growth rate.

因此，如果 ROIC 相似，那麼您可能需要略高的增長率。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Second, I just wanted to understand what is management's view on how much of this year's outgrowth, compared with semiconductor industry, have been on some of those inventory builds that your customers have undertaken in terms -- over the last several years.

其次，我只是想了解管理層對今年與半導體行業相比有多少增長是基於您的客戶在過去幾年中進行的一些庫存建設的看法。

And there are very good years that TSMC outgrows the semiconductor industry or the foundry industry by a significant margin.

在過去的幾年裡，台積電的增長遠遠超過了半導體行業或代工行業。

And this seems to be one of those years where even smartphone is not really growing.

而這似乎是智能手機並沒有真正增長的那些年之一。

It's actually declining, while TSMC is growing more than 20%.

它實際上在下降，而台積電增長超過 20%。

So I just wanted to understand.

所以我只是想了解一下。

Quite a bit of that is because real demand and market share gain in leading edge, but any thoughts on how much of that do you feel is some of these inventory and supply chain security inventory that your customers are building?

其中相當一部分是因為實際需求和市場份額在領先優勢中獲得了增長，但您認為其中有多少是您的客戶正在構建的庫存和供應鏈安全庫存？

Okay.

好的。

Gokul, let me summarize your 2 questions.

Gokul，讓我總結一下你的兩個問題。

Maybe I'll start with the second question first.

也許我會先從第二個問題開始。

You just want to know management's view, the fact that TSMC's growth in 2020 is outpacing the foundry industry.

你只想知道管理層的觀點，即台積電在 2020 年的增長速度超過代工行業這一事實。

Can we break down what is driving this?

我們可以分解驅動它的原因嗎？

How much of it is from supply chain efforts to ensure supply chain security?

其中有多少來自供應鏈確保供應鏈安全的努力？

How much of it is market share gains?

其中有多少是市場份額的增長？

How much of it is due to leading edge?

其中有多少是由於領先優勢？

We certainly -- at this time, I don't think we can separate them.

我們當然 - 目前，我認為我們無法將它們分開。

So clearly each one, that is because of technology, because of share gain, because of HPC or something like that.

很明顯，每一個都是因為技術，因為份額增加，因為 HPC 或類似的東西。

Again I would like to emphasize the need on the leading-edge technology node N7, N5.

我想再次強調對前沿技術節點N7、N5的需求。

And that's why we again have our advantage.

這就是我們再次擁有優勢的原因。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And then your second question, Gokul, to repeat again, is that with the strong growth we see this year and the megatrends that we identify for the next several years, is there -- will there be a change in our long-term growth target?

然後，Gokul，再重複一遍，你的第二個問題是，隨著我們今年看到的強勁增長以及我們確定的未來幾年的大趨勢，我們的長期增長目標是否會發生變化？

Well, we continue to emphasize that we will be at the high end of 5% to 10% CAGR.

好吧，我們繼續強調我們將處於 5% 到 10% 複合年增長率的高端。

Remember this kind of a forecast is a rolling forecast, so we continue to have confidence then in our technology and also our market share and so our growth.

請記住，這種預測是滾動預測，因此我們繼續對我們的技術、我們的市場份額以及我們的增長充滿信心。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Gokul.

謝謝你，戈庫爾。

Next one, we are having Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

下一個，我們有來自 CLSA 的 Sebastian Hou。

Sebastian, are you on the line?

塞巴斯蒂安，你在線嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

I forgot to unmute.

我忘了取消靜音。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Okay, okay.

好吧好吧。

So I have 2 follow-up.

所以我有 2 個跟進。

First one is that the 5-nanometer revenue contribution is lower, from 10% to 8%, but total revenue outlook is plus 8%.

第一個是 5 納米的收入貢獻較低，從 10% 降至 8%，但總收入前景為 +8%。

So if we do the math, then 5-nanometer revenue were probably lower by 15% compared to April.

因此，如果我們進行數學計算，那麼 5 納米的收入可能比 4 月份低 15%。

And further compared to January guidance, it's actually 20% lower, so how do we attribute this?

進一步與 1 月份的指導相比，它實際上低了 20%，那麼我們如何歸因於此？

Is it due to the customers that got sanctioned in May or any other reasons?

是因為5月份被制裁的客戶，還是其他什麼原因？

And furthermore, it also means that the other technology nodes are actually growing stronger, so I wonder what's driving the other applications in those.

此外，這也意味著其他技術節點實際上正在變得更強大，所以我想知道是什麼在推動這些中的其他應用程序。

And also, can you give us update on your expectation for growth for the 4 major platforms with the new revised-up guidance?

此外，您能否通過新修訂的指導向我們更新您對 4 大平台增長的預期？

Okay.

好的。

So let me summarize Sebastian's question.

那麼讓我總結一下塞巴斯蒂安的問題。

He wants to know the -- what is driving the difference in terms of N5 today versus 6 months ago and what other nodes then are stronger.

他想知道——是什麼導致了今天 N5 與 6 個月前的差異，以及其他哪些節點更強大。

And then he also wants to know the 2020 outlook, growth outlook, by platform.

然後他還想按平台了解 2020 年的前景、增長前景。

Okay.

好的。

Sebastian, actually compared to 6 months ago, our N5 revenue actually increases.

塞巴斯蒂安，實際上與 6 個月前相比，我們的 N5 收入實際上有所增加。

And so the other nodes, maybe you can double check the math, okay?

那麼其他節點，也許你可以仔細檢查數學，好嗎？

And then the 2020 growth outlook by the 4 platforms.

然後是 4 個平台的 2020 年增長前景。

Okay.

好的。

All the platform will grow, except the automotive.

除了汽車，所有平台都會增長。

Okay?

好的？

Okay, okay.

好吧好吧。

My second question is also a follow on the 5G smartphone and also the total smartphone guidance you just gave and the other analysts asked about.

我的第二個問題也是關於 5G 智能手機的後續問題，以及您剛剛提供的智能手機總體指導和其他分析師詢問的問題。

So one of the -- so it looks like the total 5G smartphone numbers -- absolute number is raised.

因此，其中一個 - 看起來像 5G 智能手機總數 - 絕對數量增加了。

And I wonder, did you base the forecast on the final SoC numbers or based on the forecast that you're seeing from your smartphone SoC fabs.

我想知道，你的預測是基於最終的 SoC 數量，還是基於你從智能手機 SoC 工廠看到的預測。

Well, we base on the one we work with our customer.

好吧，我們基於與客戶合作的那個。

So that's a number that the customer demand to TSMC.

所以這是客戶要求台積電的一個數字。

Of course, they are also doing their forecasts as we did.

當然，他們也像我們一樣在做預測。

So all of that...

所以這一切...

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Sebastian.

謝謝你，塞巴斯蒂安。

Thanks, Sebastian.

謝謝，塞巴斯蒂安。

Sorry.

對不起。

Next one, we're having Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

接下來，我們請到了 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I'm a little bit confused and I was wondering if you can help me.

我有點困惑，我想知道你是否可以幫助我。

All the 5G smartphone data points suggest that the smartphones that are selling-through are priced worth less than USD 300.

所有 5G 智能手機數據點都表明，熱銷智能手機的價格低於 300 美元。

And also, your commentary suggests that, despite the fact that COVID has had a second wave, your outlook is actually stronger, so how can I reconcile a 5G smartphone which is mostly driven by low end and the second wave of COVID with your outlook?

而且，您的評論表明，儘管 COVID 已經發生了第二波，但您的前景實際上更強勁，那麼我如何協調主要由低端驅動的 5G 智能手機和第二波 COVID 與您的前景？

It's -- okay, Mehdi, your question is how -- your observation is that 5G smartphone sell-through is mainly coming through at the low-end 5G smartphones priced at USD 300 or less.

這是 - 好的，邁赫迪，你的問題是 - 你的觀察是 5G 智能手機的銷售主要來自價格為 300 美元或更低的低端 5G 智能手機。

And with the potential second wave of COVID, how can you reconcile this low-end demand with what TSMC is seeing?

隨著潛在的第二波 COVID 浪潮，您如何協調這種低端需求與台積電所看到的情況？

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

And also your outlook for the year.

還有你今年的展望。

Because early -- in last earning conference call, you said your outlook is based on COVID node pricing by June, but it seems like there's a second wave.

因為在上次財報電話會議上，你說你的前景是基於 6 月份的 COVID 節點定價，但似乎還有第二波。

So Mehdi is also asking because, in April, we said our outlook was premised on stabilization of COVID by June, but now it looks like COVID-19 continues.

所以 Mehdi 也在問，因為在 4 月份，我們說我們的前景是在 6 月份 COVID 穩定的前提下，但現在看來 COVID-19 仍在繼續。

We don't -- actually, we don't confirm there is a second wave of COVID-19 per se, but we did that one alone.

我們不——實際上，我們不確認是否存在第二波 COVID-19 本身，但我們單獨做到了這一點。

We do observe that our customers have demand to TSMC.

我們確實觀察到我們的客戶對台積電有需求。

And you mentioned that 5Gs is only in the low end.

你提到 5Gs 只是在低端。

We do expect there is a lot of new 5G phones and pretty high end in the second half of 2020, and that's what we based on our assumption.

我們確實預計 2020 年下半年會有很多新的 5G 手機和相當高端的手機，這就是我們基於我們的假設。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you...

謝謝...

May I have one follow-up on CapEx?

我可以跟進一次資本支出嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Just the $1 billion of the increase to 2020 CapEx, is that equally distributed between front-end equipment and back end?

僅增加到 2020 年資本支出的 10 億美元，是否在前端設備和後端之間平均分配？

Or is it more in one particular area?

還是在某一特定領域更多？

What's driving the incremental increase?

是什麼推動了增量增長？

Okay.

好的。

So Mehdi, your second question is what's the increase in the CapEx guidance?

那麼邁赫迪，你的第二個問題是資本支出指南的增加是多少？

Is it more driven by the front end or the back end for 2020?

2020 年是前端驅動還是後端驅動？

Yes.

是的。

Well, basically, it's front end.

嗯，基本上，它是前端。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next one, we are having Laura Chen from KGI.

下一個，我們有來自 KGI 的 Laura Chen。

Congratulations for the good results.

恭喜取得好成績。

Actually, my question is also related to the advanced packaging.

其實我的問題也跟先進封裝有關。

I recall that we mentioned that we have about USD 3 billion for the advanced packaging last year for the revenue contribution.

我記得我們提到去年我們有大約 30 億美元用於先進封裝的收入貢獻。

I'm just wondering what's the latest guidance for this year.

我只是想知道今年的最新指南是什麼。

Any revenue target for advanced packaging?

先進封裝的收入目標是什麼？

And also what are the plans you're looking for in this space?

還有你在這個領域尋找的計劃是什麼？

On the incremental increased CapEx, do we also have some plan in this space?

關於增量增加的資本支出，我們在這個領域是否也有一些計劃？

Okay.

好的。

So Laura's question is related to the advanced packaging.

所以勞拉的問題與高級封裝有關。

She wants to know.

她想知道。

Last year -- I -- it was not $3 billion.

去年——我——不是 30 億美元。

It was $2.85 billion.

這是28.5億美元。

So what is the growth outlook for this year, number one?

那麼今年的增長前景如何，第一？

And then what's the plan for advanced packaging, the outlook going forward?

那麼先進封裝的計劃是什麼，前景如何？

Okay.

好的。

We expect that the advanced packaging will grow probably similar to our corporate average this year.

我們預計今年先進封裝的增長可能與我們的企業平均水平相似。

As to the CapEx increase, yes, a little bit but mostly at the front end and with the advanced technology.

至於資本支出的增加，是的，有一點，但主要是在前端和先進技術方面。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have a second question, Laura?

你還有第二個問題嗎，勞拉？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

My second question is about the legacy process and also like 28-nanometer.

我的第二個問題是關於遺留工藝以及 28 納米。

We all know that advanced packaging, we are very strong and fully loaded.

大家都知道高級封裝，我們很給力，滿載而歸。

I'm just wondering that -- for the legacy capacity and utilization rate and especially for 28-nanometer, as C.C. also mentioned before, that you see structurally overcapacity in this space.

我只是想知道——對於遺留容量和利用率，尤其是對於 28 納米，如 C.C.之前也提到過，你看到這個領域的結構性產能過剩。

Looking forward, can we expect improvement in second half or next year given our good progress in the RFIC or the CIS, et cetera?

展望未來，鑑於我們在 RFIC 或 CIS 等方面的良好進展，我們是否可以期待下半年或明年有所改善？

Okay.

好的。

So let me summarize.

所以讓我總結一下。

Your second question, Laura, is looking at our mature nodes, what is the utilization outlook for our mature nodes and specifically for 28-nanometer?

勞拉，你的第二個問題是看我們的成熟節點，我們成熟節點的利用前景如何，特別是 28 納米？

Do we see improvement in second half or 2021?

我們會在下半年或 2021 年看到改善嗎？

All right, let me answer that, our mature node or what we call specialty, our mature nodes are loading actually is quite good, except 28-nanometer, okay?

好吧，我來回答一下，我們的成熟節點或者我們所謂的專業，我們成熟的節點加載實際上是相當好的，除了28納米，好嗎？

I still want to emphasize that 28-nanometer has been overcapacity for the whole industry, but we continue to improve it and slowly.

我還是想強調一下，28納米整個行業已經產能過剩了，但是我們在不斷的改進，慢慢的。

And of course, we can see, the CMOS image sensor and also other applications, that will move into 28-nanometer, but it's slower than we thought.

當然，我們可以看到 CMOS 圖像傳感器和其他應用程序將進入 28 納米，但它比我們想像的要慢。

However, it will be improved.

但是，它將得到改進。

We have confidence to say that.

我們有信心這麼說。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Laura.

謝謝你，勞拉。

Next one to ask questions, Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

下一位要提問的是瑞士信貸銀行的 Randy Abrams。

Okay, yes.

好的，是的。

First one, I wanted to just go back with a clarification on Huawei, if you're factoring in sort of the future view and these potential shipments.

第一個，我想回去澄清一下華為，如果你考慮到未來的看法和這些潛在的出貨量。

I think one is the regulations seem to allow some ways to ship to Huawei.

我認為一個是法規似乎允許通過某些方式向華為發貨。

I know you comply by the rules, but it seems to allow some way to shift directly to OSATs.

我知道你遵守規則，但它似乎允許某種方式直接轉向 OSAT。

So I'm curious either from that or a perspective that you get a partial or a full license, if you're building that into the base case.

所以我很好奇，無論是從那個角度還是從你獲得部分或完整許可的角度來看，如果你將其構建到基本案例中。

Actually, the current regulation spells do not prohibit it, standard product or general product, to be able to ship to Huawei.

實際上，目前的監管法術並沒有禁止它，標準產品或普通產品能夠出貨給華為。

And therefore, we think Huawei as a smartphone business will -- most likely, they may strategize to stay by procuring general-purpose products.

因此，我們認為華為作為智能手機業務將 - 最有可能的是，他們可能會通過採購通用產品來製定戰略。

I think I -- Randy, part of your question is that, from TSMC's perspective, are there alternative ways to ship to this customer such as shipping to OSATs?

我想我——蘭迪，你的部分問題是，從台積電的角度來看，是否有其他方式可以運送給這個客戶，比如運送給 OSAT？

Or will we have a partial license?

或者我們會有部分許可證？

No, no.

不，不。

We don't have alternative way to ship.

我們沒有其他運輸方式。

Okay?

好的？

Okay, that's -- okay, if I can get the second question, if you could...

好吧，那是——好吧，如果我能回答第二個問題，如果你能……

Randy, did you -- are you still there?

蘭迪，你——你還在嗎？

(inaudible) nanometer, if that's going to be the steep ramp-up, will be available in 2020.

（聽不清）納米，如果這將是一個陡峭的斜坡，將在 2020 年上市。

Sorry.

對不起。

Randy, you dropped off for a second.

蘭迪，你停下來一秒鐘。

Can you repeat your second question again?

你能再重複你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

It's actually more about the half-nodes.

它實際上更多的是關於半節點。

The 4-nanometer will be available.

4 納米將可用。

I think mass production early 2022.

我認為 2022 年初量產。

So with 3 coming out late in the year, if you're expecting that would be the steep ramp so we could see high volume.

因此，隨著 3 在今年晚些時候問世，如果你預計那將是陡峭的斜坡，那麼我們可以看到大量的交易量。

It also could allow you, I think, with the tool reuse, a bit lower spend.

我認為，它還可以讓您通過工具重用降低支出。

So I'm curious how you're thinking about that.

所以我很好奇你是怎麼想的。

And then also on the 6-nanometer, if you're still seeing most of the customers on 7 migrate to 6, where I think previously you expected majority could end up going to that half-node.

然後在 6 納米上，如果你仍然看到大多數客戶在 7 上遷移到 6，我認為你之前預計大多數人最終可能會轉向那個半節點。

Okay.

好的。

Your second question, Randy, is related to N4 and N3.

Randy，你的第二個問題與 N4 和 N3 有關。

And thus, were we -- with the timing differences of N4 and N3, will we see a lower spend as a result?

因此，我們是否 - 由於 N4 和 N3 的時間差異，我們會因此看到較低的支出嗎？

Randy's view is that N4 will be early 2022.

Randy 的觀點是 N4 將在 2022 年初。

N3 will be late 2022.

N3 將在 2022 年末。

And then so with some conversion, will that result in lower spend?

然後進行一些轉換，這會導致支出降低嗎？

And he also wants to know for our N6.

他還想了解我們的 N6。

We've talked about it before.

我們以前談過。

Do we see still a strong migration of our customers from N7 to the ex-N6?

我們是否仍然看到我們的客戶從 N7 大量遷移到前 N6？

Well, let me answer the second one first.

嗯，我先回答第二個。

On the N6, yes, we have been -- offer to our customer with a compatible -- actually, it's fully compatible to N7, so it will have a very good opportunity to catch the second wave of 7 nanometers product.

在 N6 上，是的，我們已經——向我們的客戶提供兼容的——實際上，它與 N7 完全兼容，因此它將有很好的機會趕上第二波 7 納米產品。

With the same kind of strategy, we offer N4 to follow the N5.

採用同樣的策略，我們在 N5 之後提供 N4。

So we do expect that N5 is a product -- finally, a lot of -- a large portion of the N5 product will move to N4.

所以我們確實希望 N5 是一種產品——最終，很多——N5 產品的很大一部分將轉移到 N4。

So it's not the -- through mix that we say N3 is a progress or N3 is a ramp-up.

因此，我們說 N3 是一種進步或 N3 是一種提升，這並不是我們所說的 - 通過混合。

N3 is another full node.

N3 是另一個全節點。

It's not -- it's more advanced by nature as -- than N5.

它不是——它本質上比 N5 更先進。

So N3 is N3.

所以N3就是N3。

N4 is N4.

N4 就是 N4。

And then N6, do we still see strong...

然後是N6，我們還能看到強...

Yes, we -- I already said that N6 is following the N7.

是的，我們——我已經說過 N6 是在 N7 之後。

Sorry.

對不起。

Okay, okay.

好吧好吧。

Next one, we're having Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

下一個，我們有摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So 2 parts.

所以2個部分。

First is about your N3 and CapEx.

首先是關於您的 N3 和資本支出。

Do you spend some CapEx for N3 this year so this is another reason why you see a CapEx upwards revision?

你今年是否為 N3 花費了一些資本支出，所以這是你看到資本支出向上修訂的另一個原因？

Okay.

好的。

Charlie, your first question is that, for 2020 CapEx, do we spend -- does it include spending for N3?

查理，你的第一個問題是，對於 2020 年的資本支出，我們是否支出 - 它是否包括 N3 支出？

Charlie, part of the CapEx this year is for N3, but that's not the reason for our increase in CapEx.

查理，今年的部分資本支出用於 N3，但這不是我們增加資本支出的原因。

Okay.

好的。

And do you have a second question, Charlie?

你還有第二個問題嗎，查理？

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

So every quarter, I ask this question about the Chinese competition.

所以每個季度，我都會問這個關於中國比賽的問題。

And notably, your China competitors make very few IPO appeals with a very high valuation.

值得注意的是，你的中國競爭對手很少以非常高的估值提出 IPO 上訴。

And supposedly, those few companies can spend for their future CapEx or even revenue growth, right?

據推測，那些少數公司可以為他們未來的資本支出甚至收入增長支出，對吧？

So I'm not saying about in the recent quarter, but in the long term, do you think that there is a threat and you probably may lose market share to China players given they want localization?

所以我不是說最近一個季度，但從長遠來看，你是否認為存在威脅並且你可能會因為中國玩家想要本地化而失去市場份額？

Or do you have any China strategy to accommodate to China's localization policy?

或者你們有什麼中國戰略來適應中國的本土化政策嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Charlie, your question is that what is the threat from Chinese foundry competition?

那麼查理，你的問題是中國代工競爭的威脅是什麼？

Do we see it as a growing threat?

我們是否將其視為日益增長的威脅？

How do we respond?

我們如何回應？

Yes.

是的。

Well, Charlie, I also answer every time that we compete in technology and the manufacturing and the customer relationship.

好吧，查理，每次我們在技術、製造和客戶關係方面競爭時，我也會回答。

And whether it's in China, in other area, we stay the same.

無論是在中國，還是在其他地區，我們都保持不變。

We're competing in technology, manufacturing.

我們在技術、製造方面競爭。

And we have been keeping very good relationship with our customer.

我們一直與客戶保持良好的關係。

We've won their trust.

我們贏得了他們的信任。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

In the interest of time, I think we will take the last 2 callers on the line.

為了節省時間，我想我們會接聽最後 2 位來電者的電話。

Next one, we are having Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

下一個，我們有高盛的 Bruce Lu。

The first question is for the norm for the capital intensity.

第一個問題是資本密集度的範數。

I think remember -- I remember, like 6 months ago, the management was talking about capital intensities will go back to 30% to 35% for 2021, but earlier, management was talking about what -- you will go back to closer to 35%.

我想記得——我記得，就像 6 個月前，管理層在談論資本強度將在 2021 年回到 30% 到 35%，但早些時候，管理層在談論什麼——你會回到接近 35 %。

So do we foresee that the capital intensity norm will be closer to 35%?

那麼我們是否預見到資本密集度標準將接近 35%？

Or the norm will still remain at 30% to 35%.

或者標準仍將保持在 30% 到 35%。

Okay.

好的。

Bruce, I think our comment is, over the long run, it will go to about 35%, and that remains the same.

布魯斯，我認為我們的評論是，從長遠來看，它會達到 35% 左右，而且保持不變。

Okay.

好的。

I understand that.

我明白那個。

Second question is that we saw that TSMC announced like 2 new factories for the packaging this year, just did the groundbreaking, and the size for the factory is pretty big.

第二個問題，我們看到台積電今年宣布了兩個新的封裝工廠，剛剛破土動工，工廠規模很大。

Do we anticipate that the advanced packaging penetration rate will be a lot higher in the advanced node?

我們是否預計先進封裝滲透率在先進節點中會高很多？

And what's the future outlook for the advanced packaging?

先進封裝的未來前景如何？

Okay.

好的。

So your second question is the -- Bruce wants to know that we announced a large advanced packaging site recently, so he wants to know what is the penetration rate, so to speak, for advanced packaging in the leading nodes going forward.

所以你的第二個問題是 - Bruce 想知道我們最近宣布了一個大型先進封裝網站，所以他想知道滲透率是多少，可以說，先進封裝在未來領先節點中的滲透率是多少。

And what is the outlook?

前景如何？

Well, we do work with our customer closely.

好吧，我們確實與客戶密切合作。

And we do see some increase on the demand of advanced packaging, and therefore we try to enlarge our capacity.

我們確實看到先進封裝的需求有所增加，因此我們試圖擴大我們的產能。

That's for sure, but let me stress that we enlarge our advanced packaging's capacity.

這是肯定的，但我要強調的是，我們擴大了先進封裝的產能。

It's for leading edge, also for specialties.

是為了前沿，也是為了專業。

There is a new demand coming out and we have to work with our customer to meet their requirement.

有新的需求出現，我們必須與客戶合作以滿足他們的要求。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bruce.

謝謝你，布魯斯。

The last one to ask questions, Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

最後一位提問的是里昂證券的Sebastian Hou。

So a follow-up on the CapEx increase, the $1 billion CapEx increase.

因此，資本支出增加的後續行動是 10 億美元的資本支出增加。

Which particularly nodes do that go to?

那會去哪些特別的節點？

Sebastian wants to know, with the increase in the CapEx to $16 billion to $17 billion from $15 billion to $16 billion previously, what node is the CapEx spending going to?

Sebastian 想知道，隨著 CapEx 從之前的 150 億到 160 億美元增加到 160 億到 170 億美元，CapEx 支出將到什麼節點？

Leading edge...

前沿...

It's leading edge, leading edge...

這是前沿，前沿...

Okay, got it.

好，知道了。

Then maybe last question is I think the U.S. senator has proposed 2 bills, CHIPS Act and American Foundries Act, in June.

那麼也許最後一個問題是我認為美國參議員在 6 月份提出了 2 項法案，CHIPS 法案和美國鑄造廠法案。

So I wondered if the -- how does that roll with TSMC Arizona plant?

所以我想知道——台積電亞利桑那工廠的情況如何？

And if that were to be passed, that bill will -- should be passed, whether TSMC or a non-American company are eligible for full for potential subsidy.

如果該法案獲得通過，該法案將——應該獲得通過，無論台積電還是非美國公司是否有資格獲得全額潛在補貼。

Well, I...

嗯，我...

Sebastian, just to make sure we understand your question.

塞巴斯蒂安，只是為了確保我們理解你的問題。

Your question is related to some of the proposed regulations in the U.S. such as the CHIPS Act and the AFA.

您的問題與美國的一些擬議法規有關，例如 CHIPS 法案和 AFA。

If these bills were to be passed, would it be eligible for TSMC or the industry?

如果這些法案獲得通過，對台積電或業界是否有資格？

Yes, it's well aligned with our request.

是的，它非常符合我們的要求。

And if those bills in different forms passed, I think the administration and State of Arizona will make this project happen.

如果這些不同形式的法案獲得通過，我認為政府和亞利桑那州將使這個項目成為現實。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Sebastian.

謝謝你，塞巴斯蒂安。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes our Q&A session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意會議的重播將在 4 小時後提供。

The transcript will be available 24 hours from now, and both of them will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

成績單將從現在起 24 小時內提供，兩者都可以通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 獲得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe.

我們希望每個人都能繼續保持健康和安全。

And we hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您下個季度能再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。