台積電 ADR (TSM) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

(外語)女士們、先生們，歡迎參加台積電2020年第二季財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. (Operator Instructions)

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 透過現場音訊網路直播的方式舉辦我們的收益電話會議，您也可以在該網站上下載收益發布資料。（操作員指示）

The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2020, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2020. Afterwards, Mr. Huang; and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host a Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

今天的活動形式如下。首先，台積電副總裁兼財務長黃溫德爾先生將總結我們2020年第二季的營運情況，然後介紹我們對2020年第三季的指導。隨後，黃先生；以及台積電執行長 C.C. 博士魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。隨後，台積電董事長劉德華博士將主持問答環節，三位高階主管將解答大家的疑問。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將電話轉給台積電財務長黃文德爾先生，請他介紹營運狀況和本季的指導。

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，傑夫。大家下午好。

Second quarter revenue was flat sequentially, as the continued 5G infrastructure deployment and HPC-related product launches offset weaknesses in other platforms. Gross margin increased 1.2 percentage points sequentially to 53% mainly due to continuing high level of utilization and the absence of unfavorable inventory valuation adjustment, partially offset by NT dollar appreciation in the second quarter. Total operating expenses increased by TWD 1.19 billion, mainly as TSMC supported a range of COVID-19 relief efforts. Operating margin increased by 0.8 percentage points sequentially to 42.2%.

由於持續的 5G 基礎設施部署和 HPC 相關產品的發布抵消了其他平台的疲軟，第二季營收環比持平。毛利率季增1.2個百分點至53%，主要由於持續的高利用率和不存在不利的庫存估價調整，但第二季新台幣升值部分抵銷了這一影響。總營業費用增加11.9億新台幣，主要由於台積電支援一系列新冠肺炎疫情救援工作。營業利益率較上季成長0.8個百分點，達到42.2%。

Overall, our second quarter EPS was TWD 4.66, and ROE was 28.5%.

整體而言，我們第二季每股收益為新台幣4.66元，股本回報率為28.5%。

Now let's move on to the revenue by technology. 7-nano process technology contributed 36% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, while 16-nanometer contributed 18%. Advanced technologies, which are defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 54% of wafer revenue.

現在讓我們來討論一下按技術劃分的收入。7奈米製程技術在第二季度貢獻了36%的晶圓收入，而16奈米製程技術貢獻了18%。先進技術（定義為 16 奈米及以下）佔晶圓收入的 54%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. Smartphones decreased 4% quarter-over-quarter, to account for 47% of our second quarter revenue. HPC increased 12%, to account for 33%. IoT decreased 5%, to account for 8%. Automotive decreased 13%, to account for 4%. Digital consumer electronics decreased 9%, to account for 5%.

接下來討論平台的所得貢獻。智慧型手機季減 4%，占我們第二季營收的 47%。HPC成長12%，佔比達33%。物聯網下降5%，佔8%。汽車製造業下降13%，佔4%。數位消費性電子產品下降9%，佔5%。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 605 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 25 billion mainly due to the increase of TWD 30 billion in short-term loans. On financial ratios, accounts receivables turnover days increased 2 days to 44 days. Days of inventory also increased 2 days to 55 days mainly due to N5 ramp and stronger N7 demand.

繼續討論資產負債表。截至第二季末，我們的現金和有價證券總額為 6,050 億新台幣。負債方面，流動負債增加250億新台幣，主要因為短期借款增加300億新台幣所致。財務比率方面，應收帳款週轉天數增加2天至44天。庫存天數也增加了 2 天，達到 55 天，這主要是由於 N5 產量增加和 N7 需求增強。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 170 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 127 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 65 billion for third quarter cash dividend. We also increased TWD 30 billion in short-term loans and issued TWD 36 billion of corporate bonds. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 37 billion to TWD 468 billion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures amounted to $4.2 billion.

現在，讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第二季度，我們營運產生的現金流量約為 1,700 億新台幣，資本支出為 1,270 億新台幣，第三季現金股利為 650 億新台幣。並增加短期貸款300億元，發行公司債360億元。總體而言，本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 370 億新台幣，達到 4,680 億新台幣。以美元計算，我們第二季的資本支出達到 42 億美元。

I've finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our third quarter guidance.

我已經完成了財務摘要。現在讓我們來看看第三季的指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between USD 11.2 billion and USD 11.5 billion, which represents a 9.3% sequential increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 29.5, gross margin is expected to be between 50% and 52%, operating margin between 39% and 41%.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第三季營收將在 112 億美元至 115 億美元之間，中位數為季增 9.3%。以1美元兌29.5新台幣的匯率假設計算，毛利率預計在50%至52%之間，營業利潤率預計在39%至41%之間。

Now I will hand over the call to C.C. for his key messages.

現在我將把電話交給 C.C.了解他的主要資訊。

Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝你，溫德爾。女士們、先生們，午安。

Let me start with our near-term demand outlook.

讓我先從我們近期的需求前景開始。

We concluded our second quarter with revenue of TWD 310.7 billion or USD 10.4 billion, in line with our guidance given 3 months ago. Our second quarter business increased slightly in U.S. dollar terms, as the continued 5G infrastructure deployment and HPC-related product launches offset weakness in other platforms. Moving into third quarter 2020, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies driven by 5G smartphone, HPC and IoT-related applications.

我們第二季的營收為 3,107 億新台幣（約 104 億美元），與我們三個月前給出的預期一致。由於持續的 5G 基礎設施部署和 HPC 相關產品的發布抵消了其他平台的疲軟，我們的第二季業務以美元計算略有增長。進入 2020 年第三季度，我們預計我們的業務將受到 5G 智慧型手機、HPC 和物聯網相關應用對我們行業領先的 5 奈米和 7 奈米技術的強勁需求的支持。

Looking at the second half of this year. COVID-19 continues to bring some level of disruption to the global economies, and uncertainty remain. We have observed weak consumer demand in the first half of this year and now expect global smartphone units to decline low-teens percentage year-over-year in 2020. However, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, we also observe the supply chain making effort to ensure supply chain security and actively preparing for new 5G smartphone launches. We raised our forecast for 5G smartphone penetration rate to high-teens percentage of the total smartphone market in 2020. For the full year of 2020, 5G and HPC-related applications will continue to drive semiconductor content enrichment. We now forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory growth, to be flat to slightly increasing, while foundry industry growth is expected to increase to be mid- to high-teens percentage.

展望今年下半年。COVID-19 持續為全球經濟帶來一定程度的擾亂，不確定性依然存在。我們觀察到今年上半年消費者需求疲軟，目前預計 2020 年全球智慧型手機銷售量將年減百分之十幾。然而，在新冠疫情期間，我們也觀察到供應鏈正在努力確保供應鏈安全，並積極為新的5G智慧型手機的發布做準備。我們將 2020 年 5G 智慧型手機普及率預測上調至整個智慧型手機市場的十幾個百分點。2020年全年，5G、HPC相關應用將持續推動半導體內容豐富。我們現在預測，不包括記憶體成長在內的整個半導體市場將持平或略有成長，而代工產業的成長率預計將達到中高百分比。

For TSMC, although COVID-19-related uncertainties remain, our technology leadership position enable us to outperform the foundry revenue growth. We believe we can grow above 20% in 2020 in U.S. dollar terms, including the impact from the new U.S. regulations, which I will discuss in the next session. Our 2020 business will be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies and our specialty technology solutions, driven by customers of 5G smartphone-related product launches and expanding HPC-related opportunities.

對於台積電而言，儘管與 COVID-19 相關的不確定性仍然存在，但我們的技術領先地位使我們能夠超越代工收入成長。我們相信，到2020年，以美元計算，我們的成長率可以超過20%，其中包括美國新法規的影響，我將在下次會議上討論這個問題。我們 2020 年的業務將受到對我們行業領先的 5 奈米和 7 奈米技術以及我們的專業技術解決方案的強勁需求的支持，這得益於 5G 智慧型手機相關產品發布的客戶以及不斷擴大的 HPC 相關機會。

Now let me talk about the impact of new U.S. regulations. On May 13, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced a set of new export control regulations. As a global and law-abiding company, TSMC will follow all the rules and regulations fully, no doubt about it. While there may be some impact from the new U.S. regulations, TSMC's purpose to unleash innovation remain unchanged. Our leading position in the semiconductor industry [as everyone's foundry], technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customers' trust also remain unchanged. We will continue to build upon our trinity of strengths and conduct our business with integrity to ensure our value and contribute to the semiconductor industry. In the near term, we will work dynamically with our customer to minimize the impact to our business from new U.S. regulations.

現在我來談談美國新法規的影響。5月13日，美國商務部公佈了一系列新的出口管制法規。作為一家全球化、守法的公司，台積電將全面遵守所有規則和規定，這一點毋庸置疑。雖然美國新規可能會帶來一些影響，但台積電釋放創新的宗旨並沒有改變。我們在半導體行業的領先地位（作為每個人的代工廠） 、技術領先地位、製造卓越性和客戶的信任也保持不變。我們將繼續發揮三位一體的優勢，誠信經營，確保我們的價值，為半導體產業做出貢獻。短期內，我們將與客戶積極合作，盡量減少美國新法規對我們業務的影響。

In the mid- to long term, we believe the underlying megatrend of 5G-related and HPC applications remain intact, and supply chain can adjust and rebalance themselves. With our technology leadership, we are well positioned to capture the mid- to long-term growth opportunities. We reaffirm our goal to grow at the high end of our long-term growth projection of 5% to 10% CAGR in U.S. dollar terms.

從中長期來看，我們認為 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的潛在大趨勢將保持不變，供應鏈可以自我調整和重新平衡。憑藉我們的技術領先地位，我們有能力抓住中長期成長機會。我們重申我們的目標是實現長期成長預測的高端成長，即以美元計算的 5% 至 10% 的複合年增長率。

Next, let me talk about our N5 ramp-up and N4 introduction.

接下來，我來談談我們的 N5 升級和 N4 的推出。

N5 is the foundry industry's most advanced solution with the best PPA. N5 is already in volume production with good yield, while we continue to improve the productivity and performance of the EUV tools. We are seeing robust demand for N5 and expect a strong ramp of N5 in the second half of this year driven by both 5G smartphones and HPC applications. As we observed some delays earlier this year in N5 toward deliveries due to COVID-19, we now expect 5-nanometer to contribute about 8% of our wafer revenue in 2020. We also introduced N4 as an extension of our 5-nanometer family. N4 will have compatible design rules and a highly competitive performance to cost advantages, as compared to N5, and we'll target next wave of the N5 products. Volume production is targeted for 2022. Thus, we are confident that our 5-nanometer family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

N5是代工產業最先進的解決方案，具有最佳的PPA。N5 已投入量產並取得良好的產量，同時我們將繼續提高 EUV 工具的生產率和性能。我們看到對 N5 的強勁需求，並預計在 5G 智慧型手機和 HPC 應用的推動下，今年下半年 N5 的需求將強勁增長。由於我們今年稍早觀察到 N5 交付因 COVID-19 而出現一些延遲，我們現在預計 5 奈米將為我們 2020 年晶圓收入貢獻約 8%。我們也推出了 N4 作為我們 5 奈米系列的延伸。與 N5 相比，N4 將具有相容的設計規則和極具競爭力的效能成本優勢，我們將瞄準下一波 N5 產品。預計量產時間為 2022 年。因此，我們有信心，我們的 5 奈米系列將成為台積電的另一個大型且持久的節點。

Now I will talk about our N3 status. N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 with about a 70% larger density gain, 10% to 15% speed gain and 25 to 30 power improvement, as compared with 5-nanometer. Our N3 technology will use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost. Our N3 technology development is on track, with good progress. N3 risk production is scheduled in 2021, and volume production is targeted in second half of 2022. We have already demonstrated 256 megabit SRAM functionality. N3 logic test chip is fully functional, with yield ahead of plan. The device performance is also on track. Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced, which will further extend our leadership position well into the future.

現在我來談談我們的N3狀態。N3 將是我們的 N5 的另一個完整節點的飛躍，與 5 奈米相比，密度將提高約 70%，速度將提高 10% 到 15%，功率將提高 25% 到 30%。我們的N3技術將採用FinFET電晶體結構，以提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。我們的N3技術開發正在按計劃進行，並且取得良好進展。N3風險生產計劃於2021年進行，量產目標於2022年下半年進行。我們已經示範了 256 兆位元 SRAM 功能。N3邏輯測試晶片功能齊全，良率提前達到計畫。設備性能也處於正常水準。我們的3奈米技術推出後將成為PPA和電晶體技術領域最先進的代工技術，這將進一步鞏固我們在未來的領先地位。

Finally, let me talk about our U.S. fab plan. On May 15, we announced our intention to build an advanced semiconductor fab in the U.S. We have received a commitment to support this project from both the U.S. federal government and the State of Arizona. We are working closely with them as well as our supply chain partners to build an effective supply chain and make up the cost gap. This fab will start with 5-nanometer technology with 20,000 wafer per month capacity. Production is targeted to begin in 2024. The U.S. fab will enable TSMC to expand our technology ecosystem and better service our customer and partners. At the same time, as TSMC global presence increases, it will allow us to better reach global talent to sustain our technology leadership.

最後我來談談我們的美國晶圓廠計畫。5月15日，我們宣布了在美國建造先進半導體工廠的計劃，並獲得了美國聯邦政府和亞利桑那州的支持承諾。我們正在與他們以及我們的供應鏈合作夥伴密切合作，以建立有效的供應鏈並彌補成本差距。該廠將採用 5 奈米技術，每月產能為 20,000 片晶圓。預計生產將於 2024 年開始。美國晶圓廠將使台積電能夠擴大我們的技術生態系統並更好地服務我們的客戶和合作夥伴。同時，隨著台積電全球影響力的增強，我們將能夠更好地接觸全球人才，並保持我們的技術領先地位。

Now let me turn the microphone over to our CFO.

現在，讓我把麥克風交給我們的財務長。

Thank you, C.C.

謝謝你，C.C.

Let me start by making some comments on our second half profitability outlook. We have just guided third quarter 2020 gross margin to decline by 2 percentage points sequentially to 51% at the midpoint primarily due to the margin dilution from the initial ramp-up of our 5-nanometer technology in the third quarter and a less-favorable foreign exchange rate. As compared with our expectation 3 months ago, our third quarter gross margin midpoint is higher, mainly supported by a high level of overall capacity utilization despite the uncertainty from COVID-19. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect the continuous steep ramp-up of our 5-nanometer to dilute our fourth quarter gross margin by about 2 to 3 percentage points.

首先，我想對我們下半年的獲利前景發表一些評論。我們剛剛預計 2020 年第三季的毛利率將環比下降 2 個百分點至中點的 51%，這主要是由於第三季 5 奈米技術的初始提升導致的利潤率稀釋以及外匯匯率不太有利。與我們三個月前的預期相比，我們第三季的毛利率中位數較高，這主要得益於儘管新冠疫情存在不確定性，但整體產能利用率仍較高。展望第四季度，我們預計 5 奈米的持續大幅成長將導致第四季毛利率下降約 2 至 3 個百分點。

Now let me talk about our capital budget for this year. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the next few years. While the impact of COVID-19 virus brings uncertainties in 2020, we have seen our business holding up well, so far, thanks to our technology leadership at 5- and 7-nanometer nodes. Looking ahead, the multiyear megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications are expected to continue to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years. In order to meet this demand and support our customers' capacity needs, we have decided to raise our full year 2020 CapEx to be between USD 16 billion to USD 17 billion. We also reiterate that TSMC is committed to sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and quarterly basis.

現在讓我談談我們今年的資本預算。每年，我們的資本支出都是為了預期未來幾年的成長。儘管 COVID-19 病毒的影響為 2020 年帶來了不確定性，但到目前為止，由於我們在 5 奈米和 7 奈米節點的技術領先地位，我們的業務保持良好。展望未來，5G相關和HPC應用的多年大趨勢預計將在未來幾年繼續推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。為了滿足這項需求並支持客戶的產能需求，我們決定將 2020 年全年資本支出提高到 160 億美元至 170 億美元之間。我們也重申，台積電致力於每年和每季持續派發現金股息。

That concludes my key messages.

這就是我要傳達的關鍵訊息。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

This concludes our prepared statements. (Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions) Now let's begin the Q&A session. Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

我們的準備聲明到此結束。（操作員指示）如果您想用中文提出問題，我會將其翻譯成英文，然後我們的管理層才會回答您的問題。（操作員指示）現在讓我們開始問答環節。接線員，請繼續與線路上的第一位來電者通話。

The first to ask questions, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

第一個提問的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

Great results in a tough time. Just a quick question on how we think about N3's development. Do we feel that N3 -- since we're talking about mass production in the second half of 2022, usually, the new nodes start sometime in Q2. I just wanted to understand. Are we thinking about a slightly slower ramp for N3 compared to what we've had in the first year for N5 as well as N7? That is my first question.

在艱難時期取得了偉大的成果。我只是想問一個簡單的問題，我們如何看待 N3 的發展。我們是否認為 N3——由於我們談論的是 2022 年下半年的大規模生產，通常新節點會在第二季的某個時候開始。我只是想了解一下。與第一年 N5 和 N7 的增速相比，我們是否會考慮讓 N3 的增速稍微慢一些？這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is when we think about leading edge, once the U.S. regulation starts to come in, how do we think about managing capacity? Do we feel that the capacity can get filled up relatively quickly once, one of our leading customers, you have to start shipment to them? Or do we feel that there could be a couple of -- there could be some time where there could be a little bit of underutilization?

我的第二個問題是，當我們考慮尖端技術時，一旦美國法規開始實施，我們如何考慮管理產能？一旦我們的一個主要客戶開始向他們發貨，我們是否覺得產能會相對較快地被填滿？或者我們覺得可能存在一些——可能有些時候利用率不夠？

Okay. Thank you, Gokul. Let me try to -- allow me to summarize your question. Your first question is related to N3. How do we think about the N3 development? We have said the mass production timing is in second half '22 versus typically the second quarter, so should we expect a slightly lower ramp of N3? This is your first question.

好的。謝謝你，Gokul。讓我嘗試—請容許我總結一下您的問題。您的第一個問題與 N3 有關。我們如何看待N3的發展？我們說過量產時間是在 2022 年下半年，而不是通常的第二季度，那麼我們是否應該預期 N3 的產量會略低一些？這是您的第一個問題。

Okay. Let me answer that, Gokul. In fact, we develop our new leading-edge technology. We work closely with our customer. So the schedule and also the ramp-up, also the progress, we're all working with customer closely and determine when and -- to be the best timing. So far, our N3 development is very smooth and successful. And we still target the risk production in next year and ramp-up in the second half. There's -- all the schedule is working with our customers.

好的。讓我來回答這個問題，Gokul。事實上，我們開發了新的尖端技術。我們與客戶密切合作。因此，時間表、提升、進展，我們都在與客戶密切合作，確定最佳時機。到目前為止，我們的N3開發非常順利且成功。我們仍將明年的風險生產作為目標，並在下半年加大生產力。所有日程安排都是根據我們的客戶情況制定的。

Okay. And then, Gokul, your second question is on the leading edge and in light of the recent U.S. regulations. How will we manage our capacity at the leading edge? Will we see a gap in the utilization? Or will we be able to fill it up?

好的。然後，Gokul，您的第二個問題與前沿有關，並且與美國最近的法規有關。我們將如何管理我們的前沿能力？我們會看到利用率出現差距嗎？或者我們可以把它填滿嗎？

It should be no problem because of -- as we just stated, that the 5Gs megatrend and also HPC-related application continue to be very strong. And we observed that all our customer are very actively prepared for these 2 application, 5G and HPC. In addition to that, we also observed that our customers are -- try to secure their supply chain security and which is very important with this COVID-19's uncertainty.

這應該沒有問題，因為——正如我們剛才所說，5G 大趨勢以及 HPC 相關應用繼續保持強勁。我們觀察到，我們所有的客戶都為這兩個應用程式——5G和HPC——做好了積極的準備。除此之外，我們還觀察到，我們的客戶正在努力確保他們的供應鏈安全，這在 COVID-19 的不確定性下非常重要。

Let me add...

讓我補充一下...

Do we, do you feel that even for N5 that is applicable? Or...

我們，您是否覺得即使對於 N5 也適用？或者...

Yes. Even with N5, yes.

是的。即使是 N5，也是的。

Let me add to that. I think, for the short term, some impact is inevitable. Currently we work closely with a customer very dynamically, trying to fill up the capacity. And for the long term, as C.C. mentioned, we are very -- we're still optimistic.

讓我補充一下。我認為，短期來看，有些影響是不可避免的。目前，我們正與客戶密切合作，努力填補產能。從長遠來看，正如 C.C.提到，我們非常——我們仍然樂觀。

Okay. Thank you, Gokul.

好的。謝謝你，Gokul。

Next to ask questions, Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

接下來提問的是里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

So my first one is I wanted to get some -- pick your brain about how do you evaluate the feasibility and possibility of building up an advanced node fab without American contents, be it technology equivalent IP material, et cetera, in the next 5 years or 10 years or even longer. Is it worth it? Or even if it takes a long time and tremendous efforts, would TSMC ever consider that?

所以我的第一個問題是，我想得到一些資訊——請您思考一下，您如何評估在未來 5 年、10 年甚至更長時間內建立一個沒有美國內容的先進節點工廠的可行性和可能性，無論是技術等效的 IP 材料等等。值得嗎？或者說即使需要很長時間和巨大的努力，台積電會考慮嗎？

Well, let me answer that question. We know that a U.S. fab, as compared with a fab in Taiwan, the cost structure is actually a little bit higher. And that's why we say that we are working with the federal government and also the State of Arizona to close the gap.

好吧，讓我來回答這個問題。我們知道，與台灣的晶圓廠相比，美國晶圓廠的成本結構其實更高。這就是為什麼我們說我們正在與聯邦政府和亞利桑那州合作以縮小差距。

Yes. Sorry. Just to repeat the question. I think Sebastian's question is asking about building up an advanced node fab or production line without using any so-called American contents whether in terms of equipment, technology or IP materials. He wants to know, in the next 5 to 10 years, is it feasible? Is it worth it? And is this something that TSMC would consider?

是的。對不起。只是重複一下這個問題。我認為塞巴斯蒂安的問題是關於建立一個先進節點的工廠或生產線，而不使用任何所謂的美國內容，無論是設備、技術或IP材料。他想知道，在未來5到10年內，這是否可行？值得嗎？台積電會考慮這一點嗎？

Let me pick up this one here. The semiconductor technology is very unique in this industry. The technology continue to improve. Every 2 years, there will be a new generation of technology come out to serve the best-performance product. And therefore, we -- I think our main force is still pursuing the technology leadership, trying to overcome each generation's challenge. And to do that, I think our current focus is still working with our equipment partners, dealing with -- utilize the best of the kind equipment that we can have to pursue our business growth. So you're right, to -- if we do that otherwise, technology advancement will be extremely challenging. It will be extremely difficult, not to talk about 5 to 10 years alone. So that is not our current effort at this point.

讓我在這裡拿起這個。半導體技術在這個行業中非常獨特。技術不斷改進。每兩年就會有新一代技術問世，為最佳性能的產品提供服務。因此，我認為我們的主要力量仍然是追求技術領先地位，並努力克服每一代的挑戰。為了做到這一點，我認為我們目前的重點仍然是與我們的設備合作夥伴合作，利用我們所能擁有的最好的設備來追求我們的業務成長。所以你說得對，如果我們不這麼做，技術進步將極具挑戰性。這將是極其困難的，更不用說還要持續5到10年。所以這不是我們目前的努力。

Okay. Sebastian, do you have a second question?

好的。賽巴斯蒂安，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, yes. Second question is I'd like to follow on the -- ask about the inventory situation. The first, could you -- can you update us on how you see the fabless days of inventory at the end of Q2 and how you see that in the second half this year? And also on the inventory side, it looks like it's getting increasingly difficult to look at the inventory from a comprehensive perspective. Fabless DOI may not be enough because apparently there is a lot of the Chinese companies stockpile the inventory in fear of being sanctioned. And also, across the board globally, the whole supply chain has been raising the [fixed store level] inventory in the past few months in fear of supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19, so -- but those are not reflected in fabless DOI. So how do we see about this inventory and potentially hidden excessive inventory situation going forward, which could -- do you concern about that to be a potential overhang at some point the destocking could come?

是的，是的。第二個問題是我想繼續詢問庫存狀況。首先，您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待第二季末的無晶圓廠庫存天數以及今年下半年的庫存天數？而且在庫存方面，從全面的角度來看待庫存似乎變得越來越困難。無晶圓廠 DOI 可能還不夠，因為顯然有許多中國公司因為害怕受到製裁而囤積庫存。此外，由於擔心 COVID-19 造成供應鏈中斷，全球範圍內整個供應鏈在過去幾個月中一直在提高 [固定商店水平] 庫存，但這些並沒有反映在無晶圓廠 DOI 中。那麼我們如何看待未來庫存和潛在隱藏的過剩庫存狀況？您是否擔心這會在某個時候成為潛在的過剩因素，導致去庫存化？

Okay. Let me summarize your second question, Sebastian. Both of it relates to the inventory situation. The first part is what is -- for TSMC tracking of fabless customers, what is the fabless DOI exiting 2Q and the outlook into second half? That's the first part of your question. And then your second part of your question is are we concerned that the inventory may -- situation may see some hidden or discrepancies due to whether it's COVID-related supply chain disruption or the U.S. regulation and such? Will this lead to a hidden inventory risk? And is there a risk of inventory correction?

好的。讓我總結一下你的第二個問題，塞巴斯蒂安。這兩者都與庫存情況有關。第一部分是——對於台積電對無晶圓廠客戶的跟踪，第二季度的無晶圓廠 DOI 是多少以及下半年的前景如何？這是你問題的第一部分。然後，您問題的第二部分是，我們是否擔心庫存情況可能會出現一些隱藏或差異，無論是由於與 COVID 相關的供應鏈中斷還是美國法規等？這是否會導致隱性庫存風險？是否有庫存調整的風險？

Okay. Let me answer that. The inventory level of our fabless customers that we track exited first quarter above the seasonal level. We expect a further increase in second quarter and then stay at a high level in the second half, as the supply chain is making efforts to ensure supply chain security and our customers are in high anticipation and preparing for new 5G smartphone product launches in the second half of this year. We cannot rule out the possibility of an inventory correction sometime down the road. We observe the supply chain active making efforts to ensure the securities and active preparation for 5G smartphone launches. We will just have to wait and see how the sell-through goes.

好的。讓我來回答這個問題。我們追蹤的無晶圓廠客戶的庫存水準在第一季高於季節性水準。我們預計第二季將進一步成長，並在下半年保持高位，因為供應鏈正在努力確保供應鏈安全，我們的客戶也對今年下半年新的 5G 智慧型手機產品的發布充滿期待和準備。我們不能排除未來某個時候庫存調整的可能性。我們觀察到供應鏈正在積極努力確保安全並為5G智慧型手機的發布積極做準備。我們只需拭目以待，看看銷售情況如何。

Okay. Thank you, Sebastian.

好的。謝謝你，賽巴斯蒂安。

The next caller is Bill Lu from UBS.

下一位來電者是瑞銀集團的 Bill Lu。

Yes. I'm wondering if you can comment on the CapEx guidance for this year. It's now raised to USD 16 billion to USD 17 billion. I'm wondering what that increase is, whether it's 5-nanometer or it was something different. Secondly, related to that, can you talk about your CapEx intensity structurally, whether this increase is temporary and whether this is pulled in from next year, therefore maintaining the longer-driven intensity? Or how we should think about that.

是的。我想知道您是否可以對今年的資本支出指導發表評論。目前已增至160億美元至170億美元。我想知道這個成長是多少，是 5 奈米還是其他什麼。其次，與此相關，您能否從結構上談談您的資本支出強度，這種增長是否是暫時的，以及是否從明年開始引入，從而保持長期驅動的強度？或者我們應該如何思考這個問題。

Okay. Let me summarize your 2 questions, Bill. Your first question is in relation to our 2020 CapEx guidance and the range of USD 16 billion to USD 17 billion. So Bill wants to know what is driving this increase and then secondly, in terms of the capital intensity outlook over the next few years.

好的。讓我總結一下你的兩個問題，比爾。您的第一個問題與我們的 2020 年資本支出指引以及 160 億美元至 170 億美元的範圍有關。因此，比爾想知道推動這種成長的因素是什麼，其次，想知道未來幾年資本密集度的前景。

Okay. The CapEx increase from 3 months ago for this year is basically comes from the advanced technologies. And the capital intensity this year will be slightly lower than 40%, and over the long term, it will gradually go down to about mid-30s.

好的。今年資本支出較三個月前相比增加，主要源自於先進技術。今年的資本密集度會略低於40%，長期來看會逐漸下降到30%左右。

Okay. Thank you, Bill.

好的。謝謝你，比爾。

The next caller is Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

下一位來電者是來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I wanted to ask about your relationship with Huawei and how you see the impacts of the U.S. regulation on your business with Huawei in the second half of the year. My understanding is that you will still have a relationship, you will still be shipping wafers probably at elevated levels in Q3. But can you confirm whether or not you have any sales with Huawei in Q4? And if not, how do you manage your 5-nanometer utilization given the importance of Huawei as a customer?

我想問您與華為的關係，以及您如何看待美國法規對下半年您與華為業務的影響。我的理解是，你們仍然會保持合作關係，你們在第三季度仍會以較高的水平運送晶圓。但您能否確認第四季是否有與華為的銷售？如果不是，考慮到華為作為客戶的重要性，您如何管理 5 奈米的利用率？

Okay. Let me summarize your question, Brett. It is regard to the relationship with Huawei but wants to know what is the impact on our business from Huawei in the second half of this year. Will we continue to ship wafers to this customer in the fourth quarter? If we do not, then how will we manage the impact to our 5-nanometer?

好的。讓我總結一下你的問題，布雷特。這是關於與華為的關係，但想知道今年下半年華為對我們的業務有何影響。我們第四季還會繼續向該客戶運送晶圓嗎？如果我們不這樣做，那麼我們將如何控制對 5 奈米的影響？

Okay. Let me answer your question. As C.C. just reported, we are complying fully with all the regulation. And we did not take any new orders or production starts from this customer since May 15. Although this regulation is just finished their public comment period, the BIS has not did a final ruling change at this point. And so it's very early, still early to confirm, but under this current status, we do not plan to ship wafers after September 14. And yes, there will be a challenge to work dynamically with other customers. That's currently we are working with them. And -- but as you heard, we made a -- C.C. just made of -- our 2020's guidance is above 20%. That tells you we are relatively progressing well in filling up the left -- capacity left open.

好的。讓我來回答你的問題。正如 C.C.剛剛報告，我們完全遵守所有規定。自5月15日起，我們就沒有再接到該客戶的任何新訂單，也沒有開始生產。儘管該法規剛結束公眾意見徵詢期，但美國商務部工業和安全局目前尚未做出最終裁決變更。現在確認還為時過早，但根據目前的狀況，我們不打算在 9 月 14 日之後運送晶圓。是的，與其他客戶進行動態合作確實是一個挑戰。這就是我們目前正在與他們合作的事情。而且 — — 但正如你所聽到的，我們做了一個 — — C.C.剛剛做出的——我們 2020 年的預期是 20% 以上。這說明我們在填補剩餘容量方面進展相對較好。

Okay. Brett, thank you. Do you have a second question?

好的。布雷特，謝謝你。您還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, just a follow-up. I wanted to ask about depreciation for this year. I think previously you talked about mid- to high-teen growth of depreciation in 2020. Can you confirm whether that's still the case? And I look at the first half depreciation, and it looks like depreciation costs were down year-on-year. And so in order to get to the mid- to high-teens growth, that would imply a large increase in depreciation sort of in the third and the fourth quarter. So if you can just clarify exactly how we should think about depreciation for the next couple of quarters, that would be great.

是的，只是後續行動。我想詢問今年的折舊情況。我認為您之前談到 2020 年折舊率將達到中高水準成長。你能確認現在情況是否仍然如此嗎？我查看了上半年的折舊情況，發現折舊成本比去年同期有所下降。因此，為了達到中高水準的成長，這意味著第三季和第四季的折舊將大幅增加。因此，如果您能明確說明我們應該如何考慮未來幾季的折舊，那就太好了。

Okay. Brett is asking. His second question is our depreciation outlook for 2020. Do we still maintain what is our depreciation for 2020 year-on-year? And then does this imply a pickup in depreciation in the second half on a quarterly basis?

好的。布雷特問。他的第二個問題是我們對 2020 年貶值的展望。我們是否仍維持 2020 年年比折舊率不變？那麼這是否意味著下半年季度貶值將加快？

Okay. Brett, our current estimate on 2020 depreciation year-on-year growth is still high-teens growth. So that gives you an idea of what the second half depreciation will be. It will be higher than the first half.

好的。布雷特，我們目前對 2020 年折舊年成長的估計仍是高雙位數成長。這樣您就可以了解下半年的貶值幅度是多少。將會比上半年更高。

Okay. Thank you, Brett.

好的。謝謝你，布雷特。

The next one on the line is Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一位發言者是來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I want to go back to your N4 and N3. And how should we think about the migration and specifically to what extent this is driven by converting rather than installing new equipment? And I have a follow-up.

我想回到你的N4和N3。我們應該如何看待遷移，具體來說，遷移在多大程度上是由轉換而不是安裝新設備所驅動的？我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. Sorry, Mehdi. Let me make sure we understood your first question. You're asking about N4 and N3, how to think about the migration. And is there a conversion, tool conversion, involved between N4 and N3? Is that your question?

好的。抱歉，邁赫迪。讓我確認一下我們了解您的第一個問題。您問的是 N4 和 N3，如何考慮遷移。N4 和 N3 之間是否有轉換、工具轉換？這是你的問題嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

All right. Actually, the N4 is a kind of improvement, continuous improvement, from N5. So it has a new -- improved the speed, improved the geometry just a little bit. N3 is totally a new node, all right? So that's N4 using the same equipment as N5. N3, we expect it to have a high percentage of the tool continue to be used from the N5, but N3 is a totally new node.

好的。其實N4是N5的改進，是N5的持續改進。因此它有了新的——提高了速度，稍微改善了幾何形狀。N3 完全是新節點，好嗎？因此 N4 使用與 N5 相同的設備。N3，我們預計它將有很大比例的工具從N5繼續使用，但N3是一個全新的節點。

Okay, thank you. Do you have a second question, Mehdi?

好的，謝謝。你還有第二個問題嗎，Mehdi？

Yes. And my second question has to do with your HPC revenue growth in Q2. It was significantly higher compared to Q1. Will there be -- can you please elaborate which specific subsegment within HPC is doing better? Is it driven by Communication or Computer? And how do you see those trends trending into Q3?

是的。我的第二個問題與您第二季的 HPC 營收成長有關。與第一季相比，這一數字明顯更高。您能否詳細說明 HPC 中哪個特定子部分錶現較好？它是由通訊還是電腦驅動的？您如何看待這些趨勢在第三季的發展？

So Mehdi, your second question is looking at our HPC sequential growth in the second quarter. Mehdi wants to know what specific segments are driving that increase. And what is the outlook?

那麼 Mehdi，你的第二個問題是看我們第二季的 HPC 連續成長。梅迪想知道哪些具體領域推動了這一成長。前景如何？

Well, Mehdi, I don't think we want to break down the details on the different platforms. Sorry about that. Okay, Mehdi?

嗯，Mehdi，我認為我們不想細分不同平台的細節。很抱歉。好的，邁赫迪？

The concern is that maybe perhaps Huawei may have pulled in before you stop taking orders. I'm trying to better understand how that particular customer has procured wafer in the first half versus second half.

令人擔憂的是，華為可能在停止接受訂單之前就撤資了。我試著更了解該特定客戶在上半年和下半年購買晶圓的情況。

Sorry, Mehdi. We -- you know we don't comment on specific customer.

抱歉，邁赫迪。我們——你知道我們不對特定客戶發表評論。

Okay. Thank you, Mehdi.

好的。謝謝你，邁赫迪。

The next one, we're having Randy Abrams from Crédit Suisse.

下一位請來的有瑞士信貸的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

My first question. I wanted to ask a bit more on the CapEx rate, as that's more a function of what you mentioned in the forward demand outlook. If you could give a view on '21, I know it's in early stage, but just factoring a full year, where you mentioned Huawei and also mentioned potential -- but you don't rule out an inventory correction. And it does seem like Samsung at least is discussing a bit about some graphics and high-end smartphone business. So I'm curious, I guess, with the CapEx raise. What's driving it? If there's certain drivers that maybe lifted on the 2021, how you're seeing that. And implications -- it follows up on Bill's question, but implication for 2021, if it seems like it might be a bit lower CapEx if you're spending a bit ahead of that now.

我的第一個問題。我想多問一些有關資本支出率的問題，因為這更取決於您在遠期需求展望中提到的內容。如果您可以對 21 年發表看法，我知道現在還處於早期階段，但僅考慮全年，您提到了華為，也提到了潛力——但您並不排除庫存調整。看起來三星至少正在討論一些有關圖形和高階智慧型手機業務的問題。所以我對資本支出的增加感到很好奇。是什麼在推動它？如果某些驅動因素可能在 2021 年得到緩解，您對此有何看法。其意義是——它與比爾的問題相呼應，但對於 2021 年而言，如果現在支出稍微超前一些，那麼資本支出可能會低一些。

Okay. So Randy, let me summarize your first question. Your first question is really what is driving our raise for the 2020 CapEx. What is the drivers for that? And then what is the outlook 2021 CapEx?

好的。那麼蘭迪，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。您的第一個問題是，真正推動我們提高 2020 年資本支出的因素是什麼。造成這種情況的因素是什麼？那麼 2021 年資本支出前景如何？

CapEx and sales, the sales just factored in your comments about inventory if your competitor is taking a bit of business and also your view that we could have a -- or don't rule out an inventory adjustment.

資本支出和銷售額，如果您的競爭對手正在搶佔一些業務，銷售額只是考慮到您對庫存的評論，以及您認為我們可以進行 - 或者不排除庫存調整的觀點。

The -- let me discuss. CapEx is a -- we do the CapEx based on long-term perspective. If you talk about -- this year's CapEx mainly, of course, this shows our demand of N5 is very strong. And if you talk about the next year's CapEx, it's really talk about 2022's demand, which we see the continued increase of N5 demand. And also, we see the starting the launch of N3 technology. And we'll see by then how much the CapEx will increase, and we report to you in due time.

——讓我討論一下。CapEx 是－我們根據長期視角進行 CapEx。如果你談論——主要是今年的資本支出，當然，這表明我們對 N5 的需求非常強勁。如果你談論明年的資本支出，那實際上是在談論 2022 年的需求，我們會看到 N5 需求持續成長。此外，我們也看到了 N3 技術的推出。到那時我們將看到資本支出將增加多少，並及時向您報告。

Okay. Do you have a second question, Randy?

好的。蘭迪，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes. And if I could follow up because you mentioned like so the higher CapEx for this year is a function that you expect next year to be even stronger. So can you talk a bit about with -- I know you're talking about the megatrends, but I'm curious if you're thinking about just what you mentioned also, like could next year have impact from the high base this year on the inventory buildup and also the full year -- like in the first quarter, if Huawei is out, there's probably pent-up demand being tight, but how do you view a full year if you're not shipping to Huawei? Unless you're counting on, by that point, some partial license to -- or if in the base case you're assuming not shipping to Huawei next year.

是的。而且我可以跟進一下，因為您提到，今年的資本支出較高，您預計明年的資本支出會更加強勁。那麼，您能否談談——我知道您在談論大趨勢，但我很好奇您是否也在考慮您提到的問題，比如今年的高基數是否會對明年的庫存積累以及全年產生影響——比如在第一季度，如果華為退出，被壓抑的需求可能會變得緊張，但如果您不向華為發貨，您如何看待全年的情況？除非你指望到那時能獲得部分許可——或者在基本情況下你假設明年不會向華為發貨。

Okay, Randy's second question. He wants to -- he is thinking that, with potential possibility of inventory correction with the U.S. regulations, will that impact? What is the impact to 2021 growth outlook and CapEx?

好的，蘭迪的第二個問題。他想——他在想，由於美國法規有可能進行庫存調整，這會產生影響嗎？這對 2021 年的成長前景和資本支出有何影響？

Yes. Randy, it's just too early for us to discuss anything about 2021, so we'll just wait until when the time approaches.

是的。蘭迪，現在討論有關 2021 年的任何事情都為時過早，所以我們只能等到時機成熟時再討論。

Okay. Thank you, Randy.

好的。謝謝你，蘭迪。

The next one is Roland Shu from Citigroup.

下一位是花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

First question is can you remind me again how does the inventory variation adjustment work every quarter. How about with 3Q? Is this inventory valuation adjustment favorable or unfavorable to the gross margin? It's my first question. And second question actually is you talk about that you are working with customers to minimize the impact of U.S. new regulation. How are you going to do -- are working on that?

第一個問題是，您能否再次提醒我每季的庫存變化調整是如何進行的。第三季怎麼樣？此次存貨估價調整對毛利率有利還是不利？這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題實際上是您談到正在與客戶合作以盡量減少美國新法規的影響。您打算怎麼做——正在努力實現這一點嗎？

Okay. So Roland, your 2 questions. Your first question is what is the impact of inventory revaluation? And then in the third quarter, will it be a favorable or unfavorable impact? And your second question is you want to know how we are dynamically working with customers to mitigate the impact of the new U.S. regulation.

好的。那麼羅蘭，你有兩個問題。您的第一個問題是庫存重估的影響是什麼？那麼對於第三季來說，會產生有利的影響還是不利的影響呢？您的第二個問題是，您想知道我們如何與客戶動態合作以減輕美國新法規的影響。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. Let me -- Roland, let me make some comments on the inventory valuation adjustment first. The impact on margins from inventory valuation adjustment is inversely correlated to that from changes in utilization. We normally report the net impact on margins from these 2 factors together. When we compare margins quarter-over-quarter, we will report the Q-on-Q change in impact from inventory valuation adjustments when it is more significant. In the second quarter, the quarter-over-quarter change in impact from inventory valuation adjustments was more significant. And if you ask about third quarter, at this moment, we believe the impact is less significant.

好的。讓我——羅蘭，讓我先對庫存估價調整發表一些評論。庫存估價調整對利潤率的影響與利用率變動對利潤率的影響成反比。我們通常會同時報告這兩個因素對利潤率的淨影響。當我們對利潤率進行季度環比比較時，如果庫存估值調整的影響更為顯著，我們將報告季度環比變化。第二季度，庫存計價調整影響的環比變化更為顯著。如果你問到第三季的情況，目前我們認為影響還不那麼顯著。

Okay. And then...

好的。進而...

Let me -- he's asking about how we work with customers dynamically to mitigate the impact of what we've done. I cannot tell you that -- how we are going to do it because of this is our company's strategy and our strengths, but one thing I can tell you, we are based on the technology leadership and excellent manufacturing. That's all we did.

讓我——他問我們如何與客戶動態合作以減輕我們所做事情的影響。我無法告訴你——我們將如何去做，因為這是我們公司的策略和優勢，但有一件事我可以告訴你，我們的基礎是技術領先和卓越的製造能力。這就是我們所做的一切。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

The next questions, Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題是摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

So my first question is really about your upward revision of the full year revenue guidance. So compared to last time, it was at mid-5% to 10%, and now it's above 20%. I think there's at least 5 percentage points of revenue growth in 2020, but last time, your assumption is that pandemic can get controlled by June. And now currently, there is a second-wave pandemics in many countries. So how are you going to reconcile this kind of weak economy or health care crisis issue versus your very strong revenue guidance? Should I just attribute that to the higher 5G smartphone penetration? Or there's other factors that we should pay attention to.

所以我的第一個問題實際上是關於您對全年收入預期的上調。與上次相比，當時的比例在 5% 到 10% 之間，而現在則超過了 20%。我認為 2020 年的收入至少會增加 5 個百分點，但上次你的假設是疫情可以在 6 月得到控制。目前，許多國家正經歷第二波疫情。那麼，您將如何協調這種疲軟的經濟或醫療保健危機問題與您非常強勁的收入預期呢？我是否應該將其歸因於 5G 智慧型手機普及率更高？或者還有其他因素需要我們注意。

Okay. Let me summarize your first question, Charlie. You're asking basically we have increased the full year outlook, but the risk of COVID-19 continues to remain. So how to reconcile a weak global economy with TSMC's full year outlook. And what peak -- will be driving this besides 5G smartphone preparation?

好的。查理，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。您問的基本上是我們提高了全年預期，但 COVID-19 的風險仍然存在。那麼，如何協調疲軟的全球經濟與台積電的全年前景呢？除了 5G 智慧型手機的準備之外，還有什麼高峰會推動這一趨勢？

Well, Charlie, we do observe the 5Gs smartphone, the momentum is getting stronger, is -- so we understand the situation. However, we also observe that our customer are making efforts to ensure supply chain security. So bear in mind as there is a second wave, third wave of COVID-19, but it seems that end demand looks very promising. So they are not afraid of -- to make sure that their supply chain will not be disrupted. Because of 5G, as you just mentioned, 5G smartphones demand is continuing to increase.

嗯，查理，我們確實觀察到 5G 智慧型手機的發展勢頭越來越強勁，所以我們了解情況。然而，我們也觀察到我們的客戶正在努力確保供應鏈安全。因此請記住，雖然有第二波、第三波 COVID-19 疫情，但最終需求看起來非常有希望。所以他們不害怕——確保他們的供應鏈不會中斷。因為5G，正如您剛才提到的，5G智慧型手機的需求正在持續增加。

Okay. Do you have a second question, Charlie?

好的。查理，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, I do. So I think a lot of things happened over the past months, right? Another thing, I would take it as a U-turn, is your decision for the U.S. fab intentions because, half year ago, I remember, the comment was like the cost is pretty high. Logistics doesn't make sense. So what exactly is the trigger for you to change this U.S. operations decision? And it would be very kind of you if I can add a very small question because the investors may care as well, your fourth quarter seasonality. Because based on your new full year guidance, if we will take it at the 20% or 21% lower bar, the fourth quarter revenues may decline sequentially. Is that a kind of fair comment?

是的，我願意。所以我認為過去幾個月發生了很多事，對嗎？另一件事，我會把它看作是一個大轉變，那就是你對美國晶圓廠意圖的決定，因為我記得半年前的評論是成本相當高。物流毫無意義。那麼究竟是什麼原因促使您改變這項美國營運決策呢？由於投資者可能也關心您的第四季度季節性，如果我可以添加一個小問題，那就太好了。因為根據您新的全年指導，如果我們按照 20% 或 21% 的較低標準來計算，那麼第四季度的收入可能會環比下降。這是一種公正的評論嗎？

Okay. Well, Charlie, your second question relates to our U.S. fab plan. And you want to know why, 6 months ago, we were talking about the cost gap being the major challenge. And now we have decided to go ahead, so what has changed?

好的。嗯，查理，你的第二個問題與我們的美國晶圓廠計劃有關。你想知道為什麼，六個月前，我們就在討論成本差距是主要挑戰。現在我們決定繼續前進，那麼有什麼改變呢？

Yes, on that figure, yes.

是的，就這個數字而言，是的。

Well, as you know, the -- with expanding our technology ecosystem and reach to global talent, closer to our customer to get a better service are all benefits of the fab in U.S., but in the past, indeed the cost, the gap, prohibited us to make those decisions. More recently, I think since last December, and -- I think the things is getting a turn. And we did get a positive encouragement from the U.S. administration and about the cost gap. Then actually, the U.S. administration and the State of Arizona combined, they do -- they seem to be able to close the cost gap we used to hold up against this decision with their commitment, and we are preparing for that. And how do they close the cost gap? As you have been reading, we -- the U.S. congress, both in Senate and House, are all driving for the incentive packages aimed at revive U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. And with that, I think they do have a way to fulfill that commitment to make up the cost gap. And that was the major decision turning point.

嗯，正如你所知，透過擴大我們的技術生態系統和接觸全球人才，更接近我們的客戶以獲得更好的服務，這些都是美國晶圓廠的好處，但在過去，成本和差距確實阻礙了我們做出這些決定。最近，我想從去年 12 月開始，事情開始出現轉機。我們確實得到了美國政府對成本差距的積極鼓勵。實際上，美國政府和亞利桑那州聯合起來，他們似乎能夠透過他們的承諾來彌補我們過去為實現這一決定而產生的成本差距，我們正在為此做準備。他們如何縮小成本差距？正如您所讀到的，我們——美國國會，無論是參議院還是眾議院，都在推動旨在振興美國半導體製造業的激勵方案。有了這個，我認為他們確實有辦法履行承諾，彌補成本差距。這就是重大的決策轉折點。

And then okay. And then, Charlie, he snuck in a third question, which he wants to know our outlook for fourth quarter given the full year guidance.

然後就好了。然後，查理，他偷偷提出了第三個問題，他想知道根據全年指導，我們對第四季的展望。

Okay. Well, Charlie, it's also too early to talk about fourth quarter, but I think you can do the math and come up with certain estimation. But what we can say is our second half will be growing, will be higher than the first half.

好的。好吧，查理，現在談論第四季度還為時過早，但我認為你可以計算一下並得出一定的估計。但我們可以說的是，下半年我們的業績將會成長，而且會高於上半年。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

The next one to ask questions, Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

下一位提問的是高盛的 Bruce Lu。

I think, given your positive progress in 3 nanometers and 5 nanometers and especially regional CapEx, can we assume that -- similar to previous node like 7-nanometer or 12 millimeters, that the first year of 3 nanometers can achieve 10% of the wafer revenue and second year of the 5-nanometer can achieve 30% of the wafer revenues?

我認為，鑑於你們在 3 奈米和 5 奈米以及特別是區域資本支出方面取得的積極進展，我們是否可以假設——類似於之前的 7 奈米或 12 毫米節點，3 奈米的第一年可以實現 10% 的晶圓收入，而 5 奈米的第二年可以實現 30% 的晶圓收入？

Okay. So Bruce, your first question is regards to N5 and N3. Bruce wants to know what's the progress in N3. Can it be -- contribute 10% of the wafer revenue in the first year? And he also wants to know, can N5 contribute 30% of the wafer revenue in its second year?

好的。那麼布魯斯，你的第一個問題是關於 N5 和 N3 的。布魯斯想知道 N3 的進展如何。可以嗎－第一年貢獻10%的晶圓收入？而他還想知道，N5在第二年能否貢獻30%的晶圓收入？

Okay. Bruce, both of them are really too early to talk about it. We certainly hope that there will be pretty big nodes, but we will definitely let you know when time is closer.

好的。布魯斯，他們兩個現在談論這件事確實還為時過早。我們當然希望會有相當大的節點，但是當時間臨近時我們一定會通知您。

Do you have a second question, Bruce?

你還有第二個問題嗎，布魯斯？

Yes. I think that -- I think just probably to check, we released our 5G penetration shipment or forecast, so we lowered the overall smartphone shipment forecast for 2020. And how about the actual number for the 5G smartphone shipment? Is that -- the penetration is up because of the lower total smartphone shipment? Or the 5G smartphone shipment itself is going up as well.

是的。我認為——我想可能只是為了檢查一下，我們發布了 5G 普及率出貨量或預測，所以我們下調了 2020 年智慧型手機整體出貨量預測。那麼5G智慧型手機的實際出貨量是多少呢？這是因為智慧型手機總出貨量較低導致滲透率上升嗎？或者5G智慧型手機出貨量本身也在上升。

Okay. So your question, second question, Bruce, is that we -- the global smartphone shipment, we now lowered to low-teens decline, but we raised the 5G penetration to high teens. Is this simply because of a lower -- smaller global base? Or what is the 5G penetration number?

好的。所以你的第二個問題，布魯斯，是，我們——全球智慧型手機出貨量，現在下降到了十幾歲的低位，但我們將 5G 普及率提高到了十幾歲的高位。這只是因為全球基數較低或較小嗎？或者說5G普及率是多少？

Well, the 5G penetration, as I said, momentum continued to increase. So even with the total smartphone number being decreased, say, at the low teens, but 5G's percentage continued to increase. And that's what we observe. And also, the 5G's semiconductors content is higher than the 4G, and especially high end is much higher. So that's what we based on.

正如我所說，5G普及率的勢頭持續增加。因此，即使智慧型手機的總數下降到十幾歲，但 5G 的百分比仍在繼續增加。這就是我們所觀察到的。而且5G的半導體含量比4G高，尤其是高端的高很多。這就是我們所依據的。

Okay. Thank you, Bruce.

好的。謝謝你，布魯斯。

The next on the line is Aaron Jeng from Nomura Securities.

下一位接電話的是野村證券的 Aaron Jeng。

Can I have a follow-up to Bruce's question just right now? He was asking -- by lowering the total smartphone demand to low teens -- down 10% to 15% now from the earlier version of down 5% to 10% but raising the 5G penetration rate to 15% to 20% from earlier, only meeting, say, 15%. And -- but in terms of absolute 5G phones demand or sell-in number, is the number being raised? Or it's still pretty much the same as the prior versions. That's a follow-up. Actually this is the first -- a part of my first question, but it just happens to be a follow-up to Bruce's question.

我現在可以回答一下布魯斯的問題嗎？他要求——透過將智慧型手機總需求量降低到十幾歲以下——從之前的 5% 到 10% 下降到 10% 到 15%，但將 5G 普及率從之前的 15% 到 20% 提高到 15% 到 20%，只滿足 15% 的要求。但就 5G 手機的絕對需求或銷售數量而言，這個數字是否有所增加？或者它仍然與以前的版本幾乎相同。這是後續行動。實際上，這是我的第一個問題的一部分，但它恰好是 Bruce 問題的後續。

Okay. Aaron, let me summarize your first question. Basically, Aaron wants to know with -- is the -- is our forecast for 5G smartphone in terms of units increased?

好的。亞倫，讓我總結一下你的第一個問題。基本上，Aaron 想知道——我們對 5G 智慧型手機銷量的預測是否會增加？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

Okay. What is your second question?

好的。你的第二個問題是什麼？

Okay, okay, let me -- so okay, let's ask my -- this question, that what -- and I was trying to compare the outlook offered by TSMC for the industry and the outlook given in the year beginning 6 months ago. And in the beginning, TSMC was saying that semi excluding memory was going to grow by 8%. And now it's going to be flattish to slightly grow, which means, I think, overall demand including everything is lower than it was 6 months ago. The foundry growth in the year beginning was 17%, but now it's pretty much unchanged at mid- to high-teens growth. TSMC's growth in the year beginning was above the industry growth. Now it's above 20% growth.

好的，好的，讓我——好的，讓我們問我的——這個問題，那就是——我試圖比較台積電對該行業的展望和六個月前年初給出的展望。而台積電一開始就表示，記憶體以外的半導體業務將成長 8%。而現在它將趨於平穩或略有增長，這意味著，我認為包括所有東西在內的整體需求都低於 6 個月前的水平。年初代工成長率為 17%，但現在基本上保持不變，仍保持在中高水準。台積電年初的成長高於產業成長。現在成長率已超過20%。

Okay, so my question is, over the last 6 months, TSMC, along with actually everyone in the world, particularly in tech, has experienced 2 difficult challenges, including, one, COVID-19; and two, Huawei issues. But it turns out that TSMC is doing even better than there was no 2 -- these issues. And so I wonder -- actually, I think the CEO already answered that the 5G absolute unit demand is going to be higher than you saw 6 months ago, which is one, I think, a key reason, but it looks to me that the 2 factors -- 2 negative factors are still huge. Actually, one -- either one of them is big, right, so -- but in terms of being greater than -- if there's no these 2 negative impacts. So how do we think about this? Earlier also, Chairman meant that...

好的，我的問題是，在過去的 6 個月裡，台積電和世界上每個人，尤其是科技界的所有人一樣，經歷了兩大艱難的挑戰，其中之一就是 COVID-19；二是華為問題。但事實證明，台積電的表現比沒有這兩個問題時還要好。所以我想知道——實際上，我認為執行長已經回答說 5G 絕對單位需求將高於 6 個月前看到的，我認為這是一個關鍵原因，但在我看來，兩個因素——兩個負面因素仍然很大。實際上，其中一個影響很大，對吧，所以，但就大於而言，如果沒有這兩個負面影響。那我們該如何看待這個問題呢？此前，主席的意思是…

Aaron, okay, I think -- let me summarize your question because it's quite long. I think, to -- in essence, what you're asking is, when you look at the industry framework that TSMC provided in the beginning of the year and you look at the framework now, you point out that the semi ex memory growth in January, we said plus 8%. Now we said flat to slightly up. Foundry growth in January, we said 17% increase year-on-year. Now we say mid- to high teens, but for TSMC, growth we're now saying greater than 20%. So given the challenges, the -- in this year from COVID-19 and such, what is driving TSMC's stronger growth?

亞倫，好的，我想——讓我總結一下你的問題，因為它很長。我認為，本質上，您要問的是，當您查看台積電在年初提供的行業框架並查看現在的框架時，您會指出，1 月份的半年度內存增長率，我們說是增加了 8%。現在我們說持平或略有上漲。1月晶圓代工成長，我們說年增17％。現在我們說的是中高水準的成長，但對於台積電來說，我們現在說的成長將超過 20%。那麼，考慮到今年新冠疫情等挑戰，是什麼推動了台積電更強勁的成長？

Well, I can answer that question by simply one word: technology leadership. Actually, we see a very strong demand from our 7-nanometer and 5 nanometers technology. And 5G -- again I would like to say that 5G's momentum is getting strong, including also HPC -- I'm sorry.

好吧，我可以用一個詞來回答這個問題：技術領導。實際上，我們看到 7 奈米和 5 奈米技術的需求非常強勁。至於 5G——我想再次說一下，5G 的發展勢頭越來越強勁，包括 HPC——抱歉。

Okay -- it's all right, yes. All right, thank you.

好的——沒關係，是的。好的，謝謝。

Next, we're having Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

接下來我們邀請到的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

First of all, I just wanted to understand. We are running at 20-plus-percent growth this year. Any thoughts on -- I think we expect some of these negatives trends will pass. Any thoughts on why we aren't changing our long-term 5% to 10% target, especially given you're also spending more CapEx? So if ROIC is similar, then probably you need to be at a slightly higher growth rate. That's my first question.

首先，我只是想了解一下。今年我們的成長率超過20%。有什麼想法嗎——我認為我們預計其中一些負面趨勢將會過去。您認為我們為什麼不改變長期 5% 到 10% 的目標，尤其是考慮到您還花了更多的資本支出？因此，如果 ROIC 相似，那麼您可能需要稍微高一點的成長率。這是我的第一個問題。

Second, I just wanted to understand what is management's view on how much of this year's outgrowth, compared with semiconductor industry, have been on some of those inventory builds that your customers have undertaken in terms -- over the last several years. And there are very good years that TSMC outgrows the semiconductor industry or the foundry industry by a significant margin. And this seems to be one of those years where even smartphone is not really growing. It's actually declining, while TSMC is growing more than 20%. So I just wanted to understand. Quite a bit of that is because real demand and market share gain in leading edge, but any thoughts on how much of that do you feel is some of these inventory and supply chain security inventory that your customers are building?

其次，我只是想了解管理層對今年的成長的看法，與半導體產業相比，這些成長有多少是來自於客戶在過去幾年中進行的一些庫存建設。在一些非常好的年份，台積電的成長速度遠遠超過半導體產業或代工產業。今年似乎是智慧型手機沒有真正成長的一年。它實際上正在下降，而台積電卻增加了 20% 以上。所以我只是想了解一下。其中很大一部分是因為實際需求和市場份額在前沿領域的成長，但您是否認為其中有多少是您的客戶正在建立的庫存和供應鏈安全庫存？

Okay. Gokul, let me summarize your 2 questions. Maybe I'll start with the second question first. You just want to know management's view, the fact that TSMC's growth in 2020 is outpacing the foundry industry. Can we break down what is driving this? How much of it is from supply chain efforts to ensure supply chain security? How much of it is market share gains? How much of it is due to leading edge?

好的。Gokul，讓我總結一下你的兩個問題。也許我應該先回答第二個問題。你只是想知道管理階層的觀點，即台積電 2020 年的成長速度超過了代工業。我們能否分析一下造成這現象的原因？其中有多少是來自供應鏈的努力，以確保供應鏈安全？其中有多少是市場佔有率的成長？其中有多少是由於前沿技術所致？

We certainly -- at this time, I don't think we can separate them. So clearly each one, that is because of technology, because of share gain, because of HPC or something like that. Again I would like to emphasize the need on the leading-edge technology node N7, N5. And that's why we again have our advantage. Okay.

我們當然——目前，我認為我們無法將它們分開。因此顯然每一個都是因為技術、因為份額的增長、因為 HPC 或諸如此類的原因。我想再次強調前沿技術節點N7、N5的必要性。這就是我們再次取得優勢的原因。好的。

Okay. And then your second question, Gokul, to repeat again, is that with the strong growth we see this year and the megatrends that we identify for the next several years, is there -- will there be a change in our long-term growth target?

好的。然後，Gokul，再次重複您的第二個問題，那就是，鑑於我們今年看到的強勁增長以及我們確定的未來幾年的大趨勢，我們的長期增長目標會發生變化嗎？

Well, we continue to emphasize that we will be at the high end of 5% to 10% CAGR. Remember this kind of a forecast is a rolling forecast, so we continue to have confidence then in our technology and also our market share and so our growth.

嗯，我們繼續強調，我們將處於 5% 至 10% 複合年增長率的高端。請記住，這種預測是一種滾動預測，因此我們對我們的技術、市場份額和成長仍然充滿信心。

Okay. Thank you, Gokul.

好的。謝謝你，Gokul。

Next one, we are having Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

下一位請到的是來自里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

Sebastian, are you on the line?

賽巴斯蒂安，你在電話裡嗎？

Sorry. I forgot to unmute. Can you hear me now?

對不起。我忘了取消靜音。現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you. Please go ahead.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。請繼續。

Okay, okay. So I have 2 follow-up. First one is that the 5-nanometer revenue contribution is lower, from 10% to 8%, but total revenue outlook is plus 8%. So if we do the math, then 5-nanometer revenue were probably lower by 15% compared to April. And further compared to January guidance, it's actually 20% lower, so how do we attribute this? Is it due to the customers that got sanctioned in May or any other reasons? And furthermore, it also means that the other technology nodes are actually growing stronger, so I wonder what's driving the other applications in those. And also, can you give us update on your expectation for growth for the 4 major platforms with the new revised-up guidance?

好的，好的。所以我有 2 個後續行動。首先，5奈米的收入貢獻較低，從10％降至8％，但總收入前景為增長8％。因此，如果我們計算一下，那麼 5 奈米的收入可能比 4 月下降了 15%。與 1 月的指導相比，實際上下降了 20%，那麼我們如何歸因於此？是因為5月有客戶被處罰了還是有其他原因？此外，這也意味著其他技術節點實際上正在變得更加強大，所以我想知道是什麼推動了其中的其他應用。另外，您能否根據新修訂的指引向我們介紹一下對四大平台成長的預期？

Okay. So let me summarize Sebastian's question. He wants to know the -- what is driving the difference in terms of N5 today versus 6 months ago and what other nodes then are stronger. And then he also wants to know the 2020 outlook, growth outlook, by platform.

好的。那麼讓我總結一下塞巴斯蒂安的問題。他想知道是什麼導致了現在的 N5 與 6 個月前的區別，以及當時還有哪些節點更強大。然後他還想了解各平台 2020 年的前景和成長前景。

Okay. Sebastian, actually compared to 6 months ago, our N5 revenue actually increases. And so the other nodes, maybe you can double check the math, okay?

好的。塞巴斯蒂安，實際上與 6 個月前相比，我們的 N5 收入實際上有所增加。那麼對於其他節點，也許你可以再檢查一下數學，好嗎？

And then the 2020 growth outlook by the 4 platforms.

然後是這四個平台的2020年成長展望。

Okay. All the platform will grow, except the automotive.

好的。除汽車平台外，所有平台都會成長。

Okay?

好的？

Okay, okay. My second question is also a follow on the 5G smartphone and also the total smartphone guidance you just gave and the other analysts asked about. So one of the -- so it looks like the total 5G smartphone numbers -- absolute number is raised. And I wonder, did you base the forecast on the final SoC numbers or based on the forecast that you're seeing from your smartphone SoC fabs.

好的，好的。我的第二個問題也是關於 5G 智慧型手機的後續問題，以及您剛才給出的以及其他分析師詢問的智慧型手機總體指導。因此，看起來 5G 智慧型手機的總數絕對數字有所增加。我想知道，您的預測是基於最終的 SoC 數字還是基於您從智慧型手機 SoC 工廠看到的預測。

Well, we base on the one we work with our customer. So that's a number that the customer demand to TSMC. Of course, they are also doing their forecasts as we did.

嗯，我們以與客戶的合作為基礎。這是客戶向台積電要求的數字。當然，他們也像我們一樣會做預測。

So all of that...

所以這一切...

Okay. Thank you, Sebastian. Thanks, Sebastian. Sorry.

好的。謝謝你，賽巴斯蒂安。謝謝，塞巴斯蒂安。對不起。

Next one, we're having Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

下一位是 Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

I'm a little bit confused and I was wondering if you can help me. All the 5G smartphone data points suggest that the smartphones that are selling-through are priced worth less than USD 300. And also, your commentary suggests that, despite the fact that COVID has had a second wave, your outlook is actually stronger, so how can I reconcile a 5G smartphone which is mostly driven by low end and the second wave of COVID with your outlook?

我有點困惑，想知道你是否可以幫助我。所有 5G 智慧型手機數據點都表明，正在銷售的智慧型手機價格低於 300 美元。而且，您的評論表明，儘管新冠疫情已經出現第二波，但您的前景實際上更加強勁，那麼我該如何將主要由低端和第二波新冠疫情驅動的 5G 智慧型手機與您的前景相協調呢？

It's -- okay, Mehdi, your question is how -- your observation is that 5G smartphone sell-through is mainly coming through at the low-end 5G smartphones priced at USD 300 or less. And with the potential second wave of COVID, how can you reconcile this low-end demand with what TSMC is seeing? Is that correct?

好的，Mehdi，你的問題是——你的觀察是，5G 智慧型手機的銷售主要來自售價 300 美元或以下的低階 5G 智慧型手機。隨著第二波新冠疫情可能來襲，您如何協調這種低端需求與台積電的現況？對嗎？

And also your outlook for the year. Because early -- in last earning conference call, you said your outlook is based on COVID node pricing by June, but it seems like there's a second wave.

以及您對今年的展望。因為早些時候——在上次收益電話會議上，您說您的展望是基於 6 月的 COVID 節點定價，但似乎出現了第二波。

So Mehdi is also asking because, in April, we said our outlook was premised on stabilization of COVID by June, but now it looks like COVID-19 continues.

因此，Mehdi 之所以提出這個問題，也是因為在 4 月份，我們曾表示，我們的前景是基於 6 月份 COVID 疫情趨於穩定，但現在看來，COVID-19 疫情仍在繼續。

We don't -- actually, we don't confirm there is a second wave of COVID-19 per se, but we did that one alone. We do observe that our customers have demand to TSMC. And you mentioned that 5Gs is only in the low end. We do expect there is a lot of new 5G phones and pretty high end in the second half of 2020, and that's what we based on our assumption.

實際上，我們並沒有確認是否有第二波 COVID-19 疫情，但我們單獨進行了調查。我們確實觀察到我們的客戶對台積電有需求。您提到 5G 還只是低階產品。我們確實預計 2020 年下半年會有很多新的 5G 手機，而且價格相當高端，這是我們基於的假設。

Okay. Thank you...

好的。謝謝...

May I have one follow-up on CapEx?

我可以對資本支出進行一次跟進嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Just the $1 billion of the increase to 2020 CapEx, is that equally distributed between front-end equipment and back end? Or is it more in one particular area? What's driving the incremental increase?

2020 年資本支出僅增加 10 億美元，這筆錢是否平均分配給前端設備和後端設備？還是更集中在某一特定領域？推動增量成長的因素是什麼？

Okay. So Mehdi, your second question is what's the increase in the CapEx guidance? Is it more driven by the front end or the back end for 2020?

好的。那麼 Mehdi，你的第二個問題是資本支出指導的增幅是多少？2020 年將更多由前端驅動還是由後端驅動？

Yes. Well, basically, it's front end.

是的。嗯，基本上，它是前端。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

The next one, we are having Laura Chen from KGI.

下一位請到的是 KGI 的 Laura Chen。

Congratulations for the good results. Actually, my question is also related to the advanced packaging. I recall that we mentioned that we have about USD 3 billion for the advanced packaging last year for the revenue contribution. I'm just wondering what's the latest guidance for this year. Any revenue target for advanced packaging? And also what are the plans you're looking for in this space? On the incremental increased CapEx, do we also have some plan in this space?

恭喜你取得好成績。其實我的問題也跟先進封裝有關。我記得我們提到過，去年先進封裝為我們的收入貢獻約為 30 億美元。我只是想知道今年的最新指導是什麼。先進封裝有收入目標嗎？另外，您在這個領域尋找什麼計劃？對於增量資本支出，我們在這方面也有一些計畫嗎？

Okay. So Laura's question is related to the advanced packaging. She wants to know. Last year -- I -- it was not $3 billion. It was $2.85 billion. So what is the growth outlook for this year, number one? And then what's the plan for advanced packaging, the outlook going forward?

好的。勞拉的問題與先進封裝有關。她想知道。去年——我——這個數字還不到 30 億美元。金額為 28.5 億美元。那麼，首先，今年的成長前景如何？那麼先進封裝的計畫和未來前景如何？

Okay. We expect that the advanced packaging will grow probably similar to our corporate average this year. As to the CapEx increase, yes, a little bit but mostly at the front end and with the advanced technology.

好的。我們預計先進封裝今年的成長速度可能與我們公司的平均值相似。至於資本支出增加，是的，有一點，但主要是在前端和先進技術方面。

Okay. Do you have a second question, Laura?

好的。蘿拉，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, yes. My second question is about the legacy process and also like 28-nanometer. We all know that advanced packaging, we are very strong and fully loaded. I'm just wondering that -- for the legacy capacity and utilization rate and especially for 28-nanometer, as C.C. also mentioned before, that you see structurally overcapacity in this space. Looking forward, can we expect improvement in second half or next year given our good progress in the RFIC or the CIS, et cetera?

是的，是的。我的第二個問題是關於傳統製程以及 28 奈米製程。我們都知道先進的包裝，我們非常堅固並且裝載齊全。我只是想知道——對於傳統的產能和利用率，特別是 28 奈米，正如 C.C.之前也提到過，您發現該領域存在結構性產能過剩。展望未來，鑑於我們在RFIC或CIS等方面取得的良好進展，我們是否可以期待下半年或明年有所改善？

Okay. So let me summarize. Your second question, Laura, is looking at our mature nodes, what is the utilization outlook for our mature nodes and specifically for 28-nanometer? Do we see improvement in second half or 2021?

好的。讓我總結一下。勞拉，你的第二個問題是看看我們的成熟節點，我們的成熟節點（特別是 28 奈米）的利用率前景如何？我們會在下半年或 2021 年看到改善嗎？

All right, let me answer that, our mature node or what we call specialty, our mature nodes are loading actually is quite good, except 28-nanometer, okay? I still want to emphasize that 28-nanometer has been overcapacity for the whole industry, but we continue to improve it and slowly. And of course, we can see, the CMOS image sensor and also other applications, that will move into 28-nanometer, but it's slower than we thought. However, it will be improved. We have confidence to say that.

好的，讓我來回答一下，我們的成熟節點或我們所謂的專業，我們的成熟節點負載實際上相當不錯，除了 28 奈米，好嗎？我還是要強調一下，28奈米對於整個產業來說已經產能過剩，但是我們在不斷的改進，而且是慢慢的。當然，我們可以看到，CMOS影像感測器和其他應用將進入28奈米，但它比我們想像的要慢。不過，這種情況將會得到改善。我們有信心這麼說。

Okay. Thank you, Laura.

好的。謝謝你，勞拉。

Next one to ask questions, Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

下一位提問者是瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

Okay, yes. First one, I wanted to just go back with a clarification on Huawei, if you're factoring in sort of the future view and these potential shipments. I think one is the regulations seem to allow some ways to ship to Huawei. I know you comply by the rules, but it seems to allow some way to shift directly to OSATs. So I'm curious either from that or a perspective that you get a partial or a full license, if you're building that into the base case.

好的，是的。首先，我想回過頭來澄清一下華為的情況，看看您是否考慮過未來前景和潛在的出貨量。我認為一個是法規似乎允許某些方式向華為發貨。我知道你遵守規則，但它似乎允許某種方式直接轉向 OSAT。因此，我很好奇，無論是從這個角度還是從另一個角度來看，如果您將其納入基本情況，您將獲得部分或全部許可。

Actually, the current regulation spells do not prohibit it, standard product or general product, to be able to ship to Huawei. And therefore, we think Huawei as a smartphone business will -- most likely, they may strategize to stay by procuring general-purpose products.

其實，現行法規並沒有禁止標準產品或普通產品向華為出貨。因此，我們認為，作為一家智慧型手機企業，華為很可能會制定透過採購通用產品來保持競爭力的策略。

I think I -- Randy, part of your question is that, from TSMC's perspective, are there alternative ways to ship to this customer such as shipping to OSATs? Or will we have a partial license?

我認為——蘭迪，你的問題的一部分是，從台積電的角度來看，是否有其他方式可以向該客戶發貨，例如運送到 OSAT？或者我們會獲得部分許可？

No, no. We don't have alternative way to ship.

不，不。我們沒有其他運輸方式。

Okay?

好的？

Okay, that's -- okay, if I can get the second question, if you could...

好的，那是－－好的，如果我可以回答第二個問題，如果你可以......

Randy, did you -- are you still there?

蘭迪，你——你還在那裡嗎？

(inaudible) nanometer, if that's going to be the steep ramp-up, will be available in 2020.

（聽不清楚）奈米，如果這將是一個急劇的成長，那麼將在 2020 年上市。

Sorry. Randy, you dropped off for a second. Can you repeat your second question again?

對不起。蘭迪，你剛才有點失神了。您能再重複一下您的第二個問題嗎？

Yes. It's actually more about the half-nodes. The 4-nanometer will be available. I think mass production early 2022. So with 3 coming out late in the year, if you're expecting that would be the steep ramp so we could see high volume. It also could allow you, I think, with the tool reuse, a bit lower spend. So I'm curious how you're thinking about that. And then also on the 6-nanometer, if you're still seeing most of the customers on 7 migrate to 6, where I think previously you expected majority could end up going to that half-node.

是的。它實際上更多地與半節點有關。4奈米將會面世。我認為將在 2022 年初進行量產。因此，隨著 3 在今年稍後推出，如果您期待的話，那將是一個陡峭的上升趨勢，因此我們可能會看到很高的銷售量。我認為，透過重複使用工具，它還可以讓你降低一些開支。所以我很好奇你是怎麼想的。然後同樣在 6 奈米方面，如果您仍然看到大多數 7 奈米的客戶遷移到 6 奈米，我認為您之前預計的大多數客戶最終可能會轉向該半節點。

Okay. Your second question, Randy, is related to N4 and N3. And thus, were we -- with the timing differences of N4 and N3, will we see a lower spend as a result? Randy's view is that N4 will be early 2022. N3 will be late 2022. And then so with some conversion, will that result in lower spend? And he also wants to know for our N6. We've talked about it before. Do we see still a strong migration of our customers from N7 to the ex-N6?

好的。蘭迪，你的第二個問題與 N4 和 N3 有關。那麼，由於 N4 和 N3 的時間差異，我們是否會看到支出降低？蘭迪 (Randy) 認為 N4 將在 2022 年初推出。N3 將於 2022 年底推出。那麼，透過一些轉換，是否會導致支出降低？他還想了解我們的 N6。我們之前已經討論過這個了。我們是否仍然看到大量客戶從 N7 遷移到前 N6？

Well, let me answer the second one first. On the N6, yes, we have been -- offer to our customer with a compatible -- actually, it's fully compatible to N7, so it will have a very good opportunity to catch the second wave of 7 nanometers product. With the same kind of strategy, we offer N4 to follow the N5. So we do expect that N5 is a product -- finally, a lot of -- a large portion of the N5 product will move to N4. So it's not the -- through mix that we say N3 is a progress or N3 is a ramp-up. N3 is another full node. It's not -- it's more advanced by nature as -- than N5. So N3 is N3. N4 is N4.

好吧，我先回答第二個問題。關於 N6，是的，我們一直在為客戶提供相容的產品——實際上，它與 N7 完全相容，因此它將有很好的機會趕上第二波 7 奈米產品。採用同樣的策略，我們提供 N4 來跟進 N5。因此，我們確實預計 N5 產品——最終，很大一部分 N5 產品將轉移到 N4。因此，我們說 N3 並不是透過混合而取得的進步，也不是透過混合而實現的提升。N3 是另一個完整節點。它本質上並不比 N5 更先進。所以 N3 就是 N3。N4就是N4。

And then N6, do we still see strong...

那麼 N6，我們是否仍然看到強勁的…

Yes, we -- I already said that N6 is following the N7.

是的，我們已經說過 N6 緊跟在 N7 之後。

Sorry. Okay, okay.

對不起。好的，好的。

Next one, we're having Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

下一位是摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So 2 parts. First is about your N3 and CapEx. Do you spend some CapEx for N3 this year so this is another reason why you see a CapEx upwards revision?

所以有 2 個部分。首先是關於您的 N3 和 CapEx。今年您是否為 N3 花費了一些資本支出，所以這是您看到資本支出上調的另一個原因？

Okay. Charlie, your first question is that, for 2020 CapEx, do we spend -- does it include spending for N3?

好的。查理，你的第一個問題是，對於 2020 年的資本支出，我們是否支出 - 它是否包括 N3 的支出？

Charlie, part of the CapEx this year is for N3, but that's not the reason for our increase in CapEx.

查理，今年的部分資本支出用於 N3，但這不是我們增加資本支出的原因。

Okay. And do you have a second question, Charlie?

好的。查理，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes, I do. So every quarter, I ask this question about the Chinese competition. And notably, your China competitors make very few IPO appeals with a very high valuation. And supposedly, those few companies can spend for their future CapEx or even revenue growth, right? So I'm not saying about in the recent quarter, but in the long term, do you think that there is a threat and you probably may lose market share to China players given they want localization? Or do you have any China strategy to accommodate to China's localization policy?

是的，我願意。因此每季我都會問這個有關中國競爭的問題。值得注意的是，你們的中國競爭對手很少進行 IPO，而且估值也很高。據稱，這幾家公司可以為未來的資本支出甚至收入成長提供資金，對嗎？所以我不是說最近一個季度的情況，而是從長遠來看，您是否認為存在威脅，並且由於中國企業想要本地化，您可能會失去市場份額？或者說你們有什麼中國戰略來適應中國的本土化政策？

Okay. So Charlie, your question is that what is the threat from Chinese foundry competition? Do we see it as a growing threat? How do we respond?

好的。那麼查理，你的問題是來自中國代工競爭的威脅是什麼？我們是否將其視為日益嚴重的威脅？我們該如何應對？

Yes.

是的。

Well, Charlie, I also answer every time that we compete in technology and the manufacturing and the customer relationship. And whether it's in China, in other area, we stay the same. We're competing in technology, manufacturing. And we have been keeping very good relationship with our customer. We've won their trust.

好吧，查理，我每次也都會回答我們在技術、製造和客戶關係方面競爭。無論是在中國還是其他地區，我們都保持不變。我們在技術和製造領域競爭。我們一直與客戶保持著良好的關係。我們贏得了他們的信任。

Okay, thank you. In the interest of time, I think we will take the last 2 callers on the line.

好的，謝謝。為了節省時間，我想我們將接聽最後兩位來電者。

Next one, we are having Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.

下一位是高盛的 Bruce Lu。

The first question is for the norm for the capital intensity. I think remember -- I remember, like 6 months ago, the management was talking about capital intensities will go back to 30% to 35% for 2021, but earlier, management was talking about what -- you will go back to closer to 35%. So do we foresee that the capital intensity norm will be closer to 35%? Or the norm will still remain at 30% to 35%.

第一個問題是關於資本密集度的標準。我記得——我記得，大約 6 個月前，管理層正在談論資本強度將在 2021 年回到 30% 到 35%，但早些時候，管理層正在談論什麼——你將回到接近 35% 的水平。那麼我們是否預見資本密集度標準將接近 35%？或仍將維持在30%至35%的常態。

Okay. Bruce, I think our comment is, over the long run, it will go to about 35%, and that remains the same.

好的。布魯斯，我認為我們的意見是，從長遠來看，它將達到約 35%，並且保持不變。

Okay. I understand that. Second question is that we saw that TSMC announced like 2 new factories for the packaging this year, just did the groundbreaking, and the size for the factory is pretty big. Do we anticipate that the advanced packaging penetration rate will be a lot higher in the advanced node? And what's the future outlook for the advanced packaging?

好的。我明白。第二個問題是，我們看到台積電今年宣布了兩家新的封裝工廠，剛動工，工廠的規模相當大。我們是否預期先進封裝的滲透率在先進節點會更高？先進封裝的未來前景如何？

Okay. So your second question is the -- Bruce wants to know that we announced a large advanced packaging site recently, so he wants to know what is the penetration rate, so to speak, for advanced packaging in the leading nodes going forward. And what is the outlook?

好的。所以你的第二個問題是——布魯斯想知道我們最近宣布了一個大型先進封裝站點，所以他想知道未來領先節點中先進封裝的滲透率是多少。前景如何？

Well, we do work with our customer closely. And we do see some increase on the demand of advanced packaging, and therefore we try to enlarge our capacity. That's for sure, but let me stress that we enlarge our advanced packaging's capacity. It's for leading edge, also for specialties. There is a new demand coming out and we have to work with our customer to meet their requirement.

嗯，我們確實與客戶密切合作。我們確實看到先進封裝的需求增加，因此我們嘗試擴大產能。這是肯定的，但我要強調的是，我們擴大了先進封裝的產能。它適用於前沿領域，也適用於專業領域。出現了新的需求，我們必須與客戶合作以滿足他們的要求。

Okay. Thank you, Bruce.

好的。謝謝你，布魯斯。

The last one to ask questions, Sebastian Hou, CLSA.

最後一個提問的是里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

So a follow-up on the CapEx increase, the $1 billion CapEx increase. Which particularly nodes do that go to?

因此，資本支出增加的後續行動是增加 10 億美元資本支出。它具體指向哪些節點？

Sebastian wants to know, with the increase in the CapEx to $16 billion to $17 billion from $15 billion to $16 billion previously, what node is the CapEx spending going to?

塞巴斯蒂安想知道，隨著資本支出從之前的 150 億美元到 160 億美元增加到 160 億美元到 170 億美元，資本支出將達到什麼節點？

Leading edge...

前沿...

It's leading edge, leading edge...

這是前沿，前沿…

Okay, got it. Then maybe last question is I think the U.S. senator has proposed 2 bills, CHIPS Act and American Foundries Act, in June. So I wondered if the -- how does that roll with TSMC Arizona plant? And if that were to be passed, that bill will -- should be passed, whether TSMC or a non-American company are eligible for full for potential subsidy.

好的，明白了。那麼也許最後一個問題是，我認為美國參議員在六月提出了兩項法案，即《CHIPS法案》和《美國晶圓代工廠法案》。所以我想知道——台積電亞利桑那工廠的情況如何？如果該法案獲得通過，那麼無論台積電或非美國公司是否有資格獲得全額補貼，該法案都應該獲得通過。

Well, I...

嗯，我...

Sebastian, just to make sure we understand your question. Your question is related to some of the proposed regulations in the U.S. such as the CHIPS Act and the AFA. If these bills were to be passed, would it be eligible for TSMC or the industry?

塞巴斯蒂安，只是為了確保我們理解你的問題。您的問題與美國的一些擬議法規有關，例如《CHIPS法案》和《AFA》。如果這些法案獲得通過，對台積電或整個產業是否符合資格？

Yes, it's well aligned with our request. And if those bills in different forms passed, I think the administration and State of Arizona will make this project happen.

是的，這非常符合我們的要求。如果這些法案以不同的形式獲得通過，我認為政府和亞利桑那州將會實現這個計畫。

Okay. Thank you, Sebastian. Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session.

好的。謝謝你，賽巴斯蒂安。謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now. The transcript will be available 24 hours from now, and both of them will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

在今天的會議結束之前，請注意，會議的重播將在 4 小時後提供。會議記錄將於 24 小時後發布，兩份文件均可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

Thank you for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe. And we hope you will join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a good day.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都能繼續保持健康和安全。我們希望您下個季度能再次加入我們。再見，祝你有美好的一天。