台積電 ADR (TSM) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • (foreign language) Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

    (外語)大家下午好,歡迎參加台積電2020年第四季業績電話會議。我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su,也是今天的主持人。

  • To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. (Operator Instructions)

    為防止 COVID-19 的傳播,台積電將透過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 透過現場音訊網路直播的方式舉辦我們的收益電話會議,您也可以在該網站上下載收益發布資料。 (操作員指示)

  • The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the fourth quarter 2020, followed by our guidance for the first quarter 2021. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

    今天的活動形式如下。首先,台積電副總裁兼財務長黃溫德爾先生將總結我們在 2020 年第四季的營運情況,然後介紹我們對 2021 年第一季的指導。之後,黃先生和台積電執行長 C.C.魏先生將共同提供公司的關鍵資訊。然後,台積電董事長劉德華博士將主持問答環節,三位高階主管將解答您的問題。

  • As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release.

    像往常一樣,我想提醒大家,今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異。請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

  • And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

    現在,我想將電話轉給台積電財務長黃文德爾先生,請他介紹營運狀況和本季業績指引。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Jeff. Happy New Year, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the fourth quarter and a recap of full year 2020. After that, I will provide the guidance for the first quarter of 2021.

    謝謝你,傑夫。大家新年快樂。感謝您今天加入我們。我的演講將從第四季度的財務亮點和 2020 年全年回顧開始。之後,我將提供 2021 年第一季的指導。

  • Fourth quarter revenue increased 1.4% sequentially in NT terms or 4.4% in U.S. dollar terms as we saw strong demand for our 5-nanometer technology driven by 5G smartphone launches and HPC-related applications. Gross margin increased 0.6 percentage point sequentially to 54%, mainly thanks to cost improvement, partially offset by the margin dilution from 5-nanometer ramp and an unfavorable exchange rate. Our utilization rate in the fourth quarter was at an extremely high level partially due to more production output, of which some of the wafers will be shipped in the first quarter. Total operating expenses slightly decreased by TWD 2.6 billion. Therefore, operating margins increased by 1.4 percentage points sequentially to 43.5%. Overall, our fourth quarter EPS was TWD 5.51, and ROE was 31.4%.

    由於 5G 智慧型手機的發布和 HPC 相關應用推動了對我們的 5 奈米技術的強勁需求,第四季度收入按新台幣計算環比增長 1.4%,按美元計算環比增長 4.4%。毛利率季增 0.6 個百分點至 54%,主要得益於成本改善,但被 5 奈米產能提升和不利匯率造成的利潤率稀釋部分抵銷。我們第四季的利用率處於極高的水平,部分原因是產量增加,其中部分晶圓將在第一季出貨。總營業費用略減26億新台幣。因此,營業利益率較上季成長1.4個百分點,達到43.5%。整體而言,我們第四季每股收益為新台幣5.51元,股本回報率為31.4%。

  • Now let's move on to the revenue by technology. 5-nanometer process technology contributed 20% of wafer revenue in the fourth quarter, while 7-nanometer and 16-nanometer contributed 29% and 13%, respectively. Advanced technologies, which are defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 62% of wafer revenue.

    現在讓我們來討論一下按技術劃分的收入。 5奈米製程技術在第四季貢獻了20%的晶圓收入,而7奈米和16奈米製程技術分別貢獻了29%和13%。先進技術(定義為 16 奈米及以下)佔晶圓收入的 62%。

  • On a full year basis, 5-nanometer revenue contribution came in at 8% of 2020 wafer revenue, 7-nanometer was 33%, and 16-nanometer was 17%. Advanced technologies accounted for 58% of total wafer revenue, up from 50% in 2019.

    從全年來看,5奈米收入貢獻佔2020年晶圓收入的8%,7奈米為33%,16奈米為17%。先進技術佔晶圓總收入的58%,高於2019年的50%。

  • Now moving on to the revenue contribution by platform. Smartphone increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to account for 51% of our fourth quarter revenue. HPC decreased 14% to account for 31%. IoT decreased 13% to account for 7%. Automotive increased 27% to account for 3%. Digital consumer electronics increased 29% to account for 4%.

    現在來談談平台的營收貢獻。智慧型手機季增 13%,占我們第四季營收的 51%。 HPC下降14%,佔31%。物聯網下降13%,佔7%。汽車產業成長27%,佔3%。數位消費性電子產品成長29%,佔4%。

  • On a full year basis, smartphone, HPC and IoT saw strong growth of 23%, 39% and 28%, respectively. DCE also increased 2%, while auto decreased 7% in 2020. Overall, smartphone accounted for 48% of our 2020 revenue, HPC accounted for 33%, and IoT accounted for 8%.

    從全年來看,智慧型手機、高效能運算和物聯網分別實現了 23%、39% 和 28% 的強勁成長。 2020 年,大商所也成長了 2%,而汽車則下降了 7%。整體而言,智慧型手機占我們 2020 年營收的 48%,高效能運算佔 33%,物聯網佔 8%。

  • Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the fourth quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 791 billion. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by TWD 29 billion mainly due to the increase of TWD 57 billion in accounts payable and the increase of TWD 38 billion in accrued liabilities and others, offset by the decrease of TWD 69 billion in short-term loan. Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by TWD 28 billion mainly as we raised TWD 30.5 billion of corporate bonds during the quarter.

    繼續討論資產負債表。截至第四季末,我們的現金和有價證券總額為 7,910 億新台幣。負債方面,流動負債增加290億元,主要由於應付帳款增加570億元及預計負債及其他增加380億元,但短期借款減少690億元所抵銷。長期有息債務增加了 280 億新台幣,主要是因為我們本季籌集了 305 億新台幣的公司債。

  • On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased 1 day to 39 days. Days of inventory increased 15 days to 73 days primarily due to the ramp of leading nodes.

    財務比率方面,應收帳款週轉天數減少1天至39天。庫存天數增加 15 天至 73 天,主要由於領先節點的增加。

  • Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx. During the fourth quarter, we generated about TWD 259 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 89 billion in CapEx and distribution TWD 65 billion for first quarter '20 cash dividend. Short-term loans decreased by TWD 67 billion, while bonds payable increased by TWD 30.5 billion due to the bond issuances. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 56 billion to TWD 660 billion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our fourth quarter capital expenditures totaled $3.2 billion.

    現在,讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。第四季度,我們從營運中產生了約 2,590 億新台幣的現金,花費了 890 億新台幣的資本支出,並分配了 650 億新台幣的 2020 年第一季現金股息。短期借款減少670億新台幣,因發行債券,應付債券增加305億新台幣。總體而言,本季末我們的現金餘額增加了 560 億新台幣,達到 6,600 億新台幣。以美元計算,我們第四季的資本支出總計 32 億美元。

  • Now let's look at the recap of our performance in 2020. We saw a strong growth in 2020 as our technology leadership position enabled us to capture the industry megatrends of 5G and HPC. Our revenue increased 31.4% in U.S. dollar terms and 25.2% in NT dollar terms to reach TWD 1.34 trillion. Gross margin increased 7.1 percentage points to 53.1% primarily due to a high level of capacity utilization and cost improvement. Operating margin increased 7.5 percentage points to 42.3%. Overall, full year EPS increased 50% to TWD 19.97.

    現在讓我們回顧一下我們在 2020 年的表現。由於我們的技術領先地位使我們能夠抓住 5G 和 HPC 的行業大趨勢,我們在 2020 年實現了強勁增長。我們的營收以美元計算成長了31.4%,以新台幣計算成長了25.2%,達到1.34兆新台幣。毛利率上升7.1個百分點至53.1%,主要由於產能利用率高及成本改善。營業利益率上升7.5個百分點至42.3%。整體而言,全年每股收益增加 50% 至新台幣 19.97 元。

  • On cash flow, we spent TWD 507 billion in CapEx, while we generated TWD 823 billion in operating cash flow and TWD 315 billion in free cash flow. We also paid TWD 259 billion in cash dividends in 2020.

    在現金流方面,我們的資本支出為 5,070 億新台幣,而我們的經營現金流為 8,230 億新台幣,自由現金流為 3,150 億新台幣。 2020年我們還派發了2,590億新台幣的現金股利。

  • I have finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our first quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our first quarter revenue to be between USD 12.7 billion and USD 13 billion, which represents a 1.3% sequential increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 27.95, gross margin is expected to be between 50.5% and 52.5%, operating margin between 39.5% and 41.5%. The sequential decline in first quarter gross margin is mainly due to a slightly lower utilization rate in the first quarter, albeit it is still staying at the high level, as well as an unfavorable foreign exchange rate.

    我已經完成了財務總結。現在讓我們來看看第一季的指導。根據目前的業務前景,我們預計第一季營收將在127億美元至130億美元之間,中位數為季增1.3%。以1美元兌27.95新台幣的匯率假設計算,毛利率預計介於50.5%至52.5%之間,營業利潤率預計介於39.5%至41.5%之間。第一季毛利率較上季下降主要由於第一季利用率略有下降(但仍處於高位)以及不利的外匯匯率。

  • Now I would like to talk about the tax rate. We expect our [2021] (corrected by company after the call) tax rate to be in the range of 10% to 11%, and this will be equally applied to all 4 quarters of the year.

    現在我想講一下稅率的問題。我們預計 [2021] 年(電話會議後公司已更正)稅率將在 10% 至 11% 之間,並將平等適用於全年所有 4 個季度。

  • This concludes my financial presentation.

    我的財務報告到此結束。

  • Now I would like to start with the key messages for the quarter. I will start by making some comments on our capital budget in 2020 and 2021. Every year, our CapEx is invested in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the next few years. Our capital investment decisions are based on 4 disciplines: technology leadership; flexible and responsive manufacturing; retaining customers' trust; and earning the proper return.

    現在我想先談一下本季的關鍵訊息。首先,我將對我們 2020 年和 2021 年的資本預算發表一些評論。每年,我們都會投資資本支出,以預期未來幾年的成長。我們的資本投資決策基於 4 個原則:技術領導;靈活且反應靈敏的製造;保持客戶的信任;並獲得應有的回報。

  • In 2020, we spent USD 17.2 billion to capture the strong demand for our advanced technologies and support our customers' capacity needs. In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies and further support our customers' capacity needs, our 2021 capital budget is expected to be between USD 25 billion and USD 28 billion. Out of the $25 billion to $28 billion CapEx for 2021, about 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer; about 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making; and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.

    2020 年,我們投入了 172 億美元來滿足市場對我們先進技術的強勁需求並支援客戶的產能需求。為了滿足對我們先進和專業技術日益增長的需求,並進一步支持客戶的產能需求,我們2021年的資本預算預計將在250億美元至280億美元之間。 2021年250億至280億美元的資本支出中,約80%的資本預算將用於先進製程技術,包括3奈米、5奈米和7奈米;約10%將用於先進封裝和掩模版製造;其中約10%將用於特色技術。

  • Next, let me talk about our capital intensity outlook. As we have said previously, our long-term capital intensity is in the mid-30s percentage range. However, when we enter a period of higher growth, our CapEx needs to be spent ahead of the revenue growth that will follow, so our capital intensity will be higher. For example, during 2010 to 2014, our CapEx spending increased threefold as compared to the previous few years, and our capital intensity ranged between 38% to 50%. Because of the increased investment, we were able to capture the growth opportunities and deliver about 15% growth CAGR from 2010 to 2015.

    接下來,讓我來談談我們的資本密集度展望。正如我們之前所說,我們的長期資本密集度在 35% 左右。然而,當我們進入更高成長期時,我們的資本支出需要在隨後的收入成長之前支出,因此我們的資本密集度會更高。例如,2010年至2014年期間,我們的資本支出比前幾年增加了三倍,資本密集度在38%至50%之間。由於投資增加,我們能夠抓住成長機會,並在 2010 年至 2015 年期間實現約 15% 的複合年增長率。

  • Today, as we enter another period of higher growth, we believe a higher level of capacity -- of capital intensity is appropriate to capture the future growth opportunities. We now expect a higher growth CAGR in the next few years driven by the industry megatrends of 5G and HPC-related applications, which C.C. will discuss in more detail.

    今天,隨著我們進入另一個更高成長時期,我們相信更高水準的產能——資本密集度,適合抓住未來的成長機會。我們現在預計,在 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的行業大趨勢的推動下,未來幾年的複合年增長率將更高,C.C.將會更詳細地討論。

  • We also expect this higher level of capital investment to continue to drive our technology leadership, enable flexible and responsive manufacturing and earn customers' trust. While our leading node capital cost continues to increase due to increasing process complexities, it is expected to be compensated by continuing to sell our value, which includes the value of our technology, service, quality and capacity support, and diligently working on cost improvement. With this level of CapEx spending in 2021, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to a sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and quarterly basis.

    我們也希望更高水準的資本投資能繼續推動我們的技術領先地位,實現靈活、反應迅速的製造,並贏得客戶的信任。雖然由於製程複雜性的增加,我們領先節點的資本成本不斷增加,但預計可以透過繼續銷售我們的價值(包括我們的技術、服務、品質和產能支援的價值)以及努力改進成本來彌補。鑑於 2021 年資本支出達到這一水平,我們重申台積電仍致力於年度和季度可持續的現金股息。

  • Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

    現在讓我把麥克風交給 C.C.

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Thank you, Wendell. Hi, everyone. This is C.C. Wei. Good afternoon. We hope everybody is staying safe and healthy during this time.

    謝謝你,溫德爾。大家好。這是 C.C.韋。午安.我們希望每個人在這段時間都能保持安全和健康。

  • Now let me start with our near-term demand and inventory. We concluded our fourth quarter with revenue of TWD 361.5 billion or USD 12.7 billion, which was in line with our guidance, mainly due to strong demand for our 5-nanometer technology driven by 5G smartphone launches and HPC-related applications.

    現在讓我先談談我們的近期需求和庫存。我們第四季的營收為 3,615 億新台幣或 127 億美元,符合我們的預期,這主要得益於 5G 智慧型手機的發布和 HPC 相關應用對我們的 5 奈米技術的強勁需求。

  • Concluding 2020, the semiconductor industry, excluding memory growth, was about 10%, while foundry industry increased about 20% year-over-year. TSMC's revenue grew 31.4% year-over-year in U.S. dollar term.

    截至 2020 年,不包括記憶體成長的半導體產業成長約為 10%,而代工產業則較去年同期成長約 20%。台積電營收以美元計算年增31.4%。

  • Moving into first quarter 2021. Our business continues to be strong, supported by HPC-related demand, recovery in the automotive segment and a milder smartphone seasonality than in recent years.

    進入 2021 年第一季。我們的業務持續保持強勁,這得益於 HPC 相關需求、汽車領域的復甦以及比近年來更為溫和的智慧型手機季節性。

  • On the inventory front, our fabless customers' overall inventory was digested throughout the fourth quarter. We now expect it to approach the historical season exiting 2020, better than our forecast 3 months ago. We observed that the supply chain are changing their approaches to inventory management amidst the lingering macro uncertainties. Looking ahead, we expect the supply chain and our customer to prepare a higher level of inventory compared to the historical season level for a longer period of time given the industry's continued need to ensure supply security.

    在庫存方面,我們的無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存在第四季度被消化。我們現在預計它將接近 2020 年的歷史性季節,比我們 3 個月前的預測要好。我們觀察到,在持續存在的宏觀不確定性中,供應鏈正在改變其庫存管理方法。展望未來,鑑於產業持續需要確保供應安全,我們預計供應鏈和我們的客戶將在更長時間內準備比歷史季節水準更高的庫存。

  • Next, let me talk about the automotive supply tightness. The automotive market has been soft since 2018. Entering 2020, COVID-19 further impacted the automotive market. The auto supply chain was affected throughout the year, and our customers continued to decrease their demand in the third quarter. We only began to see sudden recovery in the fourth quarter. However, the automotive supply chain is long and complex, while many of our technology nodes have been tight throughout 2020 due to strong demand from our other customers.

    接下來我來講一下汽車供應緊張的問題。汽車市場自2018年以來持續低迷,進入2020年,新冠疫情進一步衝擊汽車市場。汽車供應鏈全年受到影響,我們的客戶在第三季的需求持續減少。我們直到第四季才開始看到突然的復甦。然而,汽車供應鏈漫長而複雜,而由於其他客戶的強勁需求,我們的許多技術節點在 2020 年一直處於緊張狀態。

  • Therefore, in the near term, as demand from the automotive supply chain is rebounding, the shortage in automotive supply has become more obvious. In TSMC, this is our top priority, and we are working closely with our automotive customers to resolve the capacity support issues.

    因此,短期來看,隨著汽車供應鏈需求回暖,汽車供給短缺的情況將更加明顯。在台積電,這是我們的首要任務,我們正在與汽車客戶密切合作,解決產能支援問題。

  • Now I will talk about our 2021 outlook. For the full year of 2021, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to grow about 8%, while foundry industry growth is forecast to be about 10%. For TSMC, we are confident we can outperform the foundry revenue growth and grow by mid-teens percentage in 2021 in U.S. dollar term. Our 2021 business will be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading advanced and specialty technologies, where we see stronger interest from all 4 growth platforms, which are smartphone, HPC, automotive and IoT.

    現在我將談談我們對2021年的展望。對於 2021 年全年,我們預測不包括記憶體在內的整個半導體市場將成長約 8%,而代工產業的成長預計約為 10%。對於台積電,我們有信心在 2021 年超越代工收入成長,以美元計算實現百分之十幾的成長率。我們 2021 年的業務將受到對我們行業領先的先進和專業技術的強勁需求的支持,我們看到智慧型手機、高效能運算、汽車和物聯網這四個成長平台都表現出更濃厚的興趣。

  • Next, let me talk about TSMC's long-term growth outlook. We are entering a period of higher growth as a multiyear megatrend of 5G and HPC-related applications are expected to fuel strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years. We expect global smartphone units to grow 10% year-over-year in 2021. We forecast the penetration rate for 5G smartphone of the total smartphone market to rise from 18% in 2020 to more than 35% in 2021. We expect the silicon content of a 5G smartphone to continue to increase as compared to a 4G smartphone.

    接下來我來講一下台積電的長期成長前景。我們正進入一個更高成長時期,因為 5G 和 HPC 相關應用的多年大趨勢預計將在未來幾年推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。我們預計 2021 年全球智慧型手機出貨量將年增 10%。我們預測 5G 智慧型手機在整個智慧型手機市場的滲透率將從 2020 年的 18% 上升到 2021 年的 35% 以上。我們預計 5G 智慧型手機的矽含量將相較於 4G 智慧型手機持續增加。

  • We continue to expect faster penetration of 5G smartphone as compared to 4G over the next several years as 5G smartphone benefit from the significant performance, bandwidth and latency improvement of 5G networks to drive more AI applications and more cloud services. We believe 5G is a multiyear megatrend that will enable a world where digital computation is increasingly ubiquitous, which will fuel the growth of all 4 of our growth platforms in the next several years.

    我們繼續預計,未來幾年 5G 智慧型手機的普及速度將比 4G 更快,因為 5G 智慧型手機受益於 5G 網路的顯著性能、頻寬和延遲改進,從而推動更多的人工智慧應用和更多的雲端服務。我們相信 5G 是一個多年的大趨勢,它將使數位運算變得越來越普遍,並將在未來幾年推動我們所有四個成長平台的成長。

  • As we enter the 5G era, a smarter and more intelligent world will require massive increases in computation power and greater need for energy-efficient computing and, therefore, require leading-edge technologies. Thus, HPC is an increasingly important driver of TSMC's long-term growth and the largest contributor in terms of our incremental revenue growth.

    隨著我們進入5G時代,更智慧化的世界將需要大幅提升運算能力,對節能運算的需求也將更大,因此需要尖端技術。因此,HPC 已成為台積電長期成長越來越重要的驅動力,也是我們增加收入成長的最大貢獻者。

  • With our technology leadership, we are well positioned to capture the growth from the favorable industry megatrend. We now expect our long-term revenue growth to be 10% to 15% CAGR from 2020 to 2025 in U.S. dollar terms.

    憑藉我們的技術領先地位,我們完全有能力抓住有利的行業大趨勢帶來的成長機會。我們現在預計,從 2020 年到 2025 年,我們的長期收入成長率將達到 10% 至 15%(以美元計算)。

  • Now I will talk about our N3 status. N3 will be another full node stride from our N5 with up to 70% logic density gain, up to 15% performance gain and up to 30% power reduction as compared with 5-nanometer. Our N3 technology will use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and cost for our customers. Our N3 technology development is on track with good progress. We are seeing a much higher level of customer engagement for both HPC and smartphone application at N3 as compared with N5 and N7 at a similar stage. Risk production is scheduled in 2021, and volume production is targeted in the second half of 2022.

    現在我來談談我們的N3狀態。 N3 將是我們的 N5 的另一個完整節點的飛躍,與 5 奈米相比,邏輯密度可提高高達 70%,性能可提高高達 15%,功耗可降低高達 30%。我們的N3技術將採用FinFET電晶體結構,為客戶提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。我們的N3技術開發正在順利進行,進展良好。與處於類似階段的 N5 和 N7 相比,我們發現 N3 的 HPC 和智慧型手機應用的客戶參與度要高得多。計劃於 2021 年進行風險生產,並計劃於 2022 年下半年進行量產。

  • Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced. Thus, we are confident our 3-nanometer will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

    我們的3奈米技術一旦推出,無論是在PPA或電晶體技術上,都將成為最先進的代工技術。因此,我們相信 3 奈米將成為台積電的另一個大型且持久的節點。

  • Finally, I will talk about TSMC 3DFabric. TSMC has developed an industry-leading and comprehensive wafer-level 3D IC technology road map to enhance system-level performance. Our differentiated chiplets and heterogeneous integration technology drive better, power-efficient and smaller-form-factor benefit for our customer while shortening their time to market. This technology is including chip-stacking solution such as SoIC as well as advanced packaging solutions such as InFO and CoWoS. We observed chiplets are becoming an industry trend. We are working with several customers on 3DFabric to enable chiplet architecture.

    最後講一下台積電3DFabric。台積電已製定出業界領先、全面的晶圓級3D IC技術路線圖,以提升系統級效能。我們的差異化晶片和異質整合技術為我們的客戶帶來更好、更節能、更小尺寸的優勢,同時縮短他們的產品上市時間。該技術包括SoIC等晶片堆疊解決方案以及InFO和CoWoS等先進封裝解決方案。我們觀察到小晶片正在成為一種行業趨勢。我們正在與 3DFabric 上的多位客戶合作,以實現小晶片架構。

  • SoIC small volume production is targeted 2022. SoIC is expected to be first adopted by HPC applications, where our bandwidth performance, power efficiency and form factor are aggressively pursued. We expect revenue from our back-end services, which are including both advanced packaging and testing, to grow at the rate higher than corporate average in the next few years.

    SoIC 小批量生產的目標是 2022 年。 SoIC 預計將首先被 HPC 應用採用,我們在該領域積極追求頻寬性能、功率效率和外形尺寸。我們預計,未來幾年包括先進封裝和測試在內的後端服務收入將以高於企業平均的速度成長。

  • This is concluding our key message. Thank you for your attention.

    這就是我們的關鍵訊息。感謝您的關注。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements. (Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate into English before our management answers your question. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝你,C.C.我們的準備聲明到此結束。 (操作員指示)如果您想用中文提出問題,我會先將其翻譯成英文,然後我們的管理層才會回答您的問題。 (操作員指示)

  • Now let's begin the Q&A session. Operator, please proceed with the first caller on the line.

    現在我們開始問答環節。接線員,請繼續與線路上的第一位來電者通話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The first one to ask question, Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

    第一個提問的是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • So let me ask a question first on 3-nanometer. Dr. Wei, how should we think about the size of 3-nanometer? What we have seen is over the last 2 years, 28-nanometer was a very big node. 7-manometer came out to be roughly 70% bigger if you think about peak revenue compared to 28-nanometer when you had new applications coming in.

    那我先問一個關於 3 奈米的問題。魏博士,我們該如何看待3奈米這個尺寸呢?我們看到,在過去的兩年裡,28奈米是一個非常大的節點。如果考慮到峰值收入,那麼在有新應用出現時,7 奈米比 28 奈米大約高出 70%。

  • How is -- given the big CapEx plan that you're also outlining, should we think that 3-nanometer, once it ramps up fully, would be substantially bigger than 7-nanometer in terms of peak revenues? Just wondering how we should kind of think about the size of this process node.

    考慮到您概述的大型資本支出計劃,我們是否應該認為,一旦 3 奈米全面投入生產,其峰值收入將遠大於 7 奈米?只是想知道我們應該如何考慮這個過程節點的大小。

  • And could you also talk a little bit about the opportunities in HPC? Right now, you are already engaged with multiple HPC customers. But could you talk a little bit about CPU, x86 CPU, obviously, which is something on everybody's mind? Could you talk a little bit about how TSMC would be exposed to this market as well as we go into the 3-nanometer era?

    您能否談談 HPC 領域的機會?目前,您已經與多位 HPC 客戶合作。但是您能否稍微談論一下 CPU,x86 CPU,顯然這是每個人都關心的問題?您能否談談台積電在進入 3 奈米時代後將如何進入這個市場?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Gokul, sorry, this is Jeff. Let me please summarize your questions, 2 questions. We'll take them in the -- one by one.

    好的。戈庫爾,對不起,我是傑夫。請容許我總結一下您的問題,有兩個問題。我們將逐一介紹它們。

  • Gokul's first question is with regards to 3-nanometer and about the size of our 3-nanometer. He notes that in the past, we have had very big nodes such as 28-nanometer and then 7-nanometer. So Gokul wants to know in terms of the peak revenue contribution, do we expect or should N3 be substantially bigger than N7? That's his first question. Correct?

    Gokul 的第一個問題是關於 3 奈米以及我們的 3 奈米的尺寸。他指出,過去我們有非常大的節點,例如 28 奈米,然後是 7 奈米。因此,Gokul 想知道,就峰值收入貢獻而言,我們是否預期或應該將 N3 大幅高於 N7?這是他的第一個問題。正確的?

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • Yes, especially considering the step-up in CapEx as well.

    是的,尤其是考慮到資本支出的增加。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, Gokul, let me answer your question by saying that we do expect the 3-nanometer will be widely used in HPC-related applications in addition to the smartphones. So with this kind of engagement with our customer, we do expect our revenue will be bigger, certainly. There's no doubt about it. So what is the next question?

    好吧,Gokul,讓我來回答你的問題,我們確實預計除了智慧型手機之外,3 奈米還將廣泛應用於 HPC 相關的應用。因此,透過與客戶的這種互動,我們確實預計我們的收入會增加。毫無疑問。那麼下一個問題是什麼呢?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And then, Gokul, I think the second part of your question is looking at what are our opportunities in high-performance computing. Gokul notes that we have multiple customers engaged, but in particular, he is asking about the progress or the status of CPU opportunity and what do we see as the drivers of HPC.

    然後,Gokul,我認為你問題的第二部分是看我們在高效能運算方面有哪些機會。 Gokul 指出,我們有多個客戶參與,但他特別詢問的是 CPU 機會的進展或狀態,以及我們認為的 HPC 驅動因素是什麼。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Gokul, we don't specifically name one of our HPC applications such as CPU to say that what is the growth rate. But let me tell you that CPU, networking and AI accelerator will be the main growth area in the HPC applications. Did that answer your question?

    Gokul,我們不會具體指出我們的某個 HPC 應用程式(例如 CPU)來說明成長率是多少。但我告訴你,CPU、網路和AI加速器將是HPC應用的主要成長領域。這回答了你的問題嗎?

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • Could you be a little bit more specific on x86? And then you already had good success in 7-nanometer penetrating the x86 market. Should we think the x86 market share continues to move up a lot as we get into 3-nanometers?

    能否更具體地說明 x86 ?那麼您已經在 7 奈米技術打入 x86 市場方面取得了巨大成功。隨著我們進入 3 奈米,我們是否應該認為 x86 市場份額將繼續大幅上升?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Gokul, I guess the -- your question is really on the x86 and looking at 7-nanometer has done well. As we get into 3-nanometer, will our exposure to x86 continue to increase.

    好的。所以 Gokul,我猜——你的問題實際上是關於 x86 的,並且 7 奈米做得很好。隨著我們進入 3 奈米,我們對 x86 的接觸是否會繼續增加。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Again, we don't specifically comment on very specific area. We work with our customers continuously and to supply the very good technology to support their business.

    再次強調,我們不會針對特定領域發表評論。我們持續與客戶合作並提供非常好的技術來支援他們的業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one to ask questions, Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

    下一位提問者是瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪‧艾布拉姆斯 (Randy Abrams)。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. Yes. I got 2 questions to ask. First, on the -- you talked about the automotive, and I assume also your mature nodes are very tight. You traditionally haven't added that much capacity on mature nodes and 8-inch. Could you discuss within that, because you have some mix of that, how you're seeing a strategy to add capacity for those nodes? And could you also look at auto has been only about 3% of revenue. Should we expect a meaningful pickup in this vertical, both the mature applications and also from new areas like EV and ADAS?

    好的。是的。我有兩個問題要問。首先,您談到了汽車,我認為您的成熟節點也非常緊密。傳統上,您不會在成熟節點和 8 英寸上添加那麼多容量。您能否討論一下,因為您對此有一些混合,您如何看待為這些節點增加容量的策略?您還可以看到汽車僅佔收入的 3% 左右。我們是否應該期待這個垂直領域出現有意義的回升,包括成熟的應用以及 EV 和 ADAS 等新領域?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Randy, let me summarize your question. You're asking first on the automotive side. He notes our comments that automotive supply is tight. Do we expect a pickup in the automotive vertical? And then also in looking at the mature nodes, will auto benefit our mature nodes and then ADAS? And other trends in automotive, how do we see?

    好的。蘭迪,讓我總結一下你的問題。您首先問的是汽車方面的問題。他注意到我們關於汽車供應緊張的評論。我們是否預期汽車垂直產業將會回升?然後,再看看成熟的節點,汽車是否會使我們的成熟節點受益,然後是 ADAS?而對於汽車的其他趨勢,我們又如何看待呢?

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, let me say that now we see the automotive industry need a lot of semiconductor components, and that's including the leading-edge technology for the ADAS system and also some of the mature technology for a lot of applications like a sensor, like a power management IC. We do see, right now, it's a little bit shortage on the automotive the mature technology supply. And we are working with customer to mitigate the shortage impact.

    嗯,我想說的是,現在我們看到汽車行業需要大量的半導體元件,其中包括 ADAS 系統的前沿技術,以及許多應用的一些成熟技術,例如感測器、電源管理 IC。我們確實看到,目前汽車成熟技術的供應有點短缺。我們正在與客戶合作,以減輕短缺的影響。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And then Randy is also asking second part on our mature nodes, given the tightness, will we consider to add capacity for the mature nodes.

    然後 Randy 也詢問了我們成熟節點的第二部分,考慮到緊張程度,我們是否會考慮為成熟節點增加容量。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • We always work with our customer to plan our technologies, capacity, all those kind of thing. For mature node, we used to convert some of the large capacity into specialties. Right now, the trend stays the same.

    我們始終與客戶合作規劃我們的技術、產能等所有方面。對於成熟的節點,我們曾經將一些大容量轉化為專業。目前,趨勢保持不變。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. Great. And my second question is, sorry, 2 parts. I just want to ask on gross margin and inventory. The gross margins you've improved 4 points year-over-year. Part of that is utilization, but depreciation also was up 45% NT dollar [against the] 6 points. So could you discuss if you've had a breakthrough on the cost reduction side and if now -- I think last quarter, you said about 50%. But given what you've seen on cost reduction and coming off 54%, if you could have better confidence on margin could continue to do better.

    好的。偉大的。我的第二個問題,抱歉,分成兩部分。我只是想問一下毛利率和庫存。你們的毛利率年增了 4 個百分點。其中一部分是利用率,但折舊也上漲了 45% 新台幣(兌 6 點)。那麼,您能否討論一下在降低成本方面是否取得了突破,以及現在——我想上個季度您說的是大約 50%。但考慮到您所看到的成本削減和 54% 的下降,如果您對利潤率有更好的信心,那麼業績可能會繼續好轉。

  • And then I just want to ask a quick on inventory, which is up 15 days, historically, you draw down within the fourth quarter, but maybe the trend-wide inventory was rising into early in the year.

    然後我想快速問一下庫存問題,從歷史上看,庫存在 15 天內上漲,在第四季度內下降,但也許整個趨勢庫存在年初就一直在上升。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Randy, let me summarize your questions, 2 parts. First is on the gross margin, he notes that our gross margin improved throughout the year. And Randy wants to know if there is a breakthrough on the cost side, and therefore, the long-term outlook for our gross margin is still 50% or not.

    好的。蘭迪,讓我總結一下你的問題,分成兩個部分。首先是毛利率,他指出我們的毛利率全年都有所增加。蘭迪想知道成本方面是否有突破,因此,我們的毛利率的長期前景是否仍為 50%。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Right. Randy, this is Wendell. You just mentioned that our depreciation increased 45% year-over-year. I think the number should be 15% year-over-year.

    正確的。蘭迪,這是溫德爾。您剛才提到我們的折舊年增了45%。我認為這個數字應該是年增 15%。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. I was looking at Q4-to-Q4, I think of just the fourth quarter over fourth quarter.

    好的。我正在看第四季度與第四季之間的情況,我認為只是第四季度與第四季之間的情況。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Right. Right. Now in terms of gross margin in the long term, we believe 50% gross margin is reasonable and achievable. There are 6 factors affecting our profitabilities: the ramp of leading-edge technology, price, cost, mix, utilization and foreign exchange rate. Take foreign exchange rate for example. In 2020, the average dollar against NT rate was TWD 29.43. It is now trading between TWD 27.90 to TWD 28. That is already a 5% appreciation of NT. So every 1% of appreciation of NT will affect our gross margin by 40 basis points.

    正確的。正確的。現在就長期毛利率而言,我們認為50%的毛利率是合理且可實現的。影響我們獲利能力的因素有六:尖端科技的提升、價格、成本、產品組合、使用率和外匯匯率。以外匯率為例。 2020年美元兌新台幣平均匯率為29.43新台幣。目前,新台幣匯率在 27.90 至 28 新台幣之間。這已經是新台幣升值 5% 了。因此新台幣每公升值1%,就會影響我們的毛利率40個基點。

  • The other thing is the -- in the fourth quarter of last year, as we mentioned, the utilization rate was very high, extremely high. And that's the abnormal level of high utilization rate cannot sustain. Therefore, in this quarter, we believe the utilization rate will come down a little bit, albeit it is still at a very high level. Now every point of utilization rate change will impact the gross margin by 40 basis point.

    另一件事是——正如我們所提到的,去年第四季的利用率非常高,極高。這就是異常高水準的利用率無法維持的原因。因此,我們認為本季利用率雖然仍處於非常高的水平,但會略有下降。現在利用率每變化一個點都會對毛利率產生40個基點的影響。

  • A third example will be the ramp in our leading-edge technologies. We mentioned last time that we expect N5 ramp in 2021 to affect our margins by 2 to 3 percentage point, and we still think that will be the case.

    第三個例子是我們尖端科技的提升。我們上次提到,預計 2021 年 N5 產量提升將影響我們的利潤率 2 至 3 個百分點,我們仍然認為情況會如此。

  • So if you take all of those into considerations, we believe 50% gross margin is reasonable and achievable in the long term.

    因此,如果將所有這些因素都考慮進去,我們認為 50% 的毛利率是合理的,並且從長遠來看是可以實現的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And then Randy had also asked about our days of inventory increasing in fourth quarter.

    然後蘭迪也詢問了我們第四季庫存增加的天數。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Right. Right. And that's partially because some -- as we have a very high utilization in the fourth quarter, but some of the wafers will be shipped in the first quarter as opposed to shipped in the fourth quarter.

    正確的。正確的。部分原因是——雖然我們在第四季度的利用率非常高,但部分晶圓將在第一季發貨,而不是在第四季度發貨。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Randy.

    好的。謝謝。謝謝你,蘭迪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, we have Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

    接下來我們有請里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • First question is I want to follow up on the gross margin side. So if I look back in the past 2 quarters, the -- your gross margin actual result turned out to be either at the high end or the -- to the upside to your original guidance, while revenue is much on the high end of the guidance, while the Taiwan dollars continued to appreciate in the second half of last year, so which means that the margin turns out to be better than what you originally guided for 2 quarters consecutively. So my question is whether or not the 1Q outlook margin is too conservative again. And second to that is whether our structural profitability will need to revise up just as our 5-year revenue growth CAGR has just been revised up officially.

    第一個問題是我想跟進毛利率方面的問題。因此,如果我回顧過去兩個季度,您的毛利率實際結果要么處於高端,要么高於您最初的指導,而收入則處於指導的高端,而新台幣在去年下半年繼續升值,這意味著利潤率連續兩個季度都好於您最初的指導。所以我的問題是,第一季的前景前景是否再次過於保守。其次,正如我們剛正式上調5年營收成長複合年增長率一樣,我們的結構性獲利能力是否也需要上調。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • All right. Sebastian, let me summarize your first question, your observation that in the past 2 quarters, our gross margin has come in at the high end or slightly above the high end of our guidance, revenue at the high end, and the currency appreciation is there. So Sebastian's question is, first, is the first quarter gross margin guidance too conservative. And what about the outlook for our longer-term structural profitability, does it need to be revised up?

    好的。賽巴斯蒂安,讓我總結一下你的第一個問題,根據你的觀察,在過去的兩個季度中,我們的毛利率處於或略高於我們預期的高端,收入處於高端,而且貨幣升值也存在。因此,塞巴斯蒂安的問題是,首先,第一季的毛利率預期是否過於保守。那麼我們的長期結構性獲利前景如何,是否需要上調?

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Okay. Sebastian, if we compare fourth quarter to first quarter, 54% in fourth quarter, and the midterm of our guidance for first quarter is 51.5%. The 2.5 percentage point difference actually mainly comes from the utilization as well as the unfavorable foreign exchange rates. So at this moment, we are still sticking to this guidance, although, obviously, we will work hard to continue to improve the gross margins.

    好的。賽巴斯蒂安,如果我們將第四季與第一季進行比較,第四季為 54%,而我們對第一季的中期預測為 51.5%。這2.5個百分點的差異其實主要來自於利用率以及不利的外匯匯率。因此,目前我們仍堅持這項指導方針,儘管我們顯然會努力繼續提高毛利率。

  • As for the long-term gross margin, as I just reported earlier that we are maintaining the 50% gross margin to be reasonable, achievable based on the elements, the 6 factors that I just talked about. Each of those factors will affect our growth -- profitability in the long term.

    至於長期毛利率,正如我剛才報告的那樣,我們將 50% 的毛利率維持在合理水平,這是基於我剛才談到的 6 個因素可以實現的。每一個因素都會影響我們的成長—長期獲利能力。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Sebastian, do you have a second question?

    好的。賽巴斯蒂安,你還有第二個問題嗎?

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Yes, I do. My second question is on your CapEx outlook. Apparently that at least there's a significant upside surprise to me and, I think, also to the concensus estimate. So the last time, in the comment, you raised CapEx from $10 billion to $12 billion level to the like a $15 billion to $17 billion level, then that resulted in the 30% revenue growth in 2020. And then -- so my question is that I think that CapEx we invest for the future growth, so whether or not this -- another step-up of the CapEx to like -- to $25 billion to $30 billion. This year's will represent a reacceleration of the growth in 2022 or '23.

    是的,我願意。我的第二個問題是關於您的資本支出前景。顯然,至少對我來說這是一個顯著的驚喜,而且我認為,這也超出了普遍預期。上次在評論中,您將資本支出從 100 億美元到 120 億美元提高到 150 億美元到 170 億美元,這導致 2020 年的收入增加了 30%。然後——所以我的問題是,我認為我們為未來成長投資的資本支出,那麼這是否會再次將資本支出提高到 250 億美元到 300 億美元。今年的成長將代表 2022 年或 2023 年的成長再次加速。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Sebastian's question is looking at our CapEx guidance for this year, $25 billion to $28 billion. It is above his expectations. So he's looking at the last time we have the increase in acceleration to CapEx from $10 billion to $12 billion to $15 billion to $17 billion resulted in us growing 30% this year -- 31% this year. So what is the outlook for our growth in 2022 or the future years?

    好的。因此,塞巴斯蒂安的問題是關於我們今年的資本支出指導,即 250 億美元至 280 億美元。這超出了他的預期。因此,他看到,上次我們的資本支出加速成長,從 100 億美元增加到 120 億美元、150 億美元、170 億美元,導致我們今年的成長率為 30%——今年為 31%。那麼,2022 年或未來幾年我們的成長前景如何?

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Okay. Sebastian, it's too early to talk about -- specifically about 2022. But as C.C. mentioned, in the next 5 years, our target CAGR is between 10% to 15%. So that's already higher than the original target of 5% to 10% CAGR that we used to have before the last conference call. And that's also because of the higher capital investment that we are ready to make to capture the higher growth opportunities underpinned by the multiyear megatrends in the industry.

    好的。塞巴斯蒂安,現在談論 2022 年還為時過早。但如 C.C.提到,未來5年,我們的目標複合年增長率在10%至15%之間。因此,這已經高於我們上次電話會議之前設定的 5% 至 10% 複合年增長率的原始目標。這也是因為我們準備好進行更高的資本投資,以抓住產業多年大趨勢所帶來的更高成長機會。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, let me add something. This is C.C. Wei. This 10% to 15% CAGR is based on a very high number of 2020. So we still forecast 10% to 15% CAGR. That will tell you that how much of CapEx that we need to invest.

    好吧,讓我補充一點。這是 C.C.韋。這個 10% 到 15% 的複合年增長率是基於 2020 年的一個非常高的數字。所以我們仍然預測 10% 到 15% 的複合年增長率。這將告訴您我們需要投資多少資本支出。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Sebastian.

    好的。謝謝。謝謝你,賽巴斯蒂安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, we have Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

    接下來我們有請高盛的 Bruce Lu。

  • Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

  • I think the big difference this time is that you raised the long-term revenue CAGR from 5% to 10% to 10% to 15%. Can you tell us that in terms of this kind of incremental changes, how much of the growth is coming from HPC? And what are the drivers for that?

    我認為這次最大的不同是,你們將長期收入複合年增長率從 5% 到 10% 提高到了 10% 到 15%。您能否告訴我們,就這種增量變化而言,有多少成長來自 HPC?其驅動因素為何?

  • And in terms of the smartphone growth, I mean the 5G penetration is already like 30-something percent in 2021. Moving forward, how much growth for you is coming from the dollar content growth or the shipment growth? Or can you provide more color on the growth?

    就智慧型手機的成長而言,我的意思是 2021 年 5G 普及率已經達到 30% 左右。展望未來,您的成長有多少來自美元內容的成長或出貨量的成長?或者您能否提供更多關於成長的資訊?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Bruce, so your question is really about our long-term growth outlook with our growth target CAGR of 10% to 15%. Your question basically is by the different platforms such as HPC, what is the growth contribution; and in looking at smartphone, how much is dollar content, how much is unit contribution.

    好的。布魯斯,你的問題實際上是關於我們的長期成長前景,我們的成長目標複合年增長率為 10% 至 15%。您的問題基本上是透過不同的平台(例如 HPC)實現的成長貢獻是什麼?而從智慧型手機來看,美元含量有多少,單位貢獻就有多少。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, let me answer the question by, actually, the growth rate from the HPC application is higher than the corporate average. And smartphone is very close to the corporate. And also, automotive is higher than the corporate average; IoT, close to that corporate average. Did that answer your question?

    好吧,讓我來回答這個問題,實際上,HPC 應用的成長率高於企業平均值。智慧型手機與企業的距離非常近。而且,汽車業的薪資水準高於企業平均;物聯網,接近企業平均。這回答了你的問題嗎?

  • Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. My next question is I want to ask about the structural profitability. I understand that -- all these 6 factors for the profitability, but that's based on the assumption that structural profitability remain unchanged. So do we consider to move up the structural profitability because of the current supply -- structural growth for the company or the structural tightness for -- especially with legacy technology nodes?

    是的。好的。我的下一個問題是有關結構性獲利能力的問題。我理解這 6 個因素都會影響獲利能力,但這是基於結構性獲利能力保持不變的假設。那麼,我們是否考慮提高結構性獲利能力,因為當前的供應——公司的結構性成長或結構性緊張——尤其是傳統技術節點?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Bruce, your second question is on the structural profitability. Given the higher growth outlook and also the tightness in supply at legacy nodes or legacy technologies, would we consider to move up the structural profitability target?

    好的。布魯斯,你的第二個問題是關於結構性獲利能力的。鑑於更高的成長前景以及傳統節點或傳統技術的供應緊張,我們是否會考慮提高結構性獲利目標?

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Bruce, as I just mentioned, we are maintaining the financial objective, i.e., the structural profitability goal of 50% gross margin. And of those 6 factors, every one of them can affect the profitability. For example -- I just used an example in foreign exchange rate, utilization and also the ramp of leading-edge nodes.

    布魯斯,正如我剛才提到的,我們保持財務目標,即 50% 毛利率的結構性獲利目標。在這 6 個因素中,每一個因素都會影響獲利能力。例如──我剛才用了外匯匯率、利用率以及前沿節點的提升的例子。

  • And for example, the leading-edge technologies, the complexities increases, the CapEx per K, it's more expensive than before. So we are working very hard with the customer to sell our value, the service value, the technology value and also the capacity value and firm up the wafer price. At the same time, we also work very closely with our suppliers to continue to improve our cost so that altogether, we can maintain and earn a proper return in the leading nodes compared to those of the previous few nodes. As a result, we are maintaining our structured profitability goal as 50% of gross margin. Okay?

    例如,尖端技術、複雜性增加、每公斤的資本支出比以前更昂貴。因此,我們正在努力與客戶合作,推銷我們的價值、服務價值、技術價值以及產能價值,並穩定晶圓價格。同時,我們也與供應商密切合作,不斷改善成本,以便總體而言,與前幾個節點相比,我們可以在領先節點保持並獲得適當的回報。因此,我們將結構化獲利目標維持在毛利率 50% 的水平。好的?

  • Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

  • So -- understand. Let me clarify that whatever you gain in terms of your cost-saving, you will still return it to your customer and maintain your 50% profitability target.

    所以——明白。讓我澄清一下,無論您在成本節約方面獲得什麼,您仍然會將其返還給您的客戶並保持 50% 的盈利目標。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • It's -- there are 6 factors. So all -- you add all of them together. It's...

    有 6 個因素。所以全部——你把它們全部加在一起。它是...

  • Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

    Bruce Lu - Research Analyst

  • Understand.

    理解。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Yes. Yes.

    是的。是的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Bruce.

    謝謝你,布魯斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one to ask question, Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.

    下一個提問的是摩根士丹利的陳查理。

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • So first question is also about the CapEx. So in the past, for you to spend a huge CapEx on leading edge is usually for the smartphone application given that the key user is Apple. So this time, you almost doubled your CapEx level. Does it mean to say there is a significant upside of the Intel CPU outsourcing? This is the first question.

    所以第一個問題也是關於資本支出。因此,過去在尖端技術上投入巨額資本支出通常是為了智慧型手機應用,因為主要用戶是蘋果。所以這一次,你的資本支出水準幾乎翻了一番。這是否意味著英特爾 CPU 外包具有顯著的優勢?這是第一個問題。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Charlie. So your question is on our CapEx. Basically, Charlie notes that in the past, our large CapEx on leading edge historically has been for smartphone platform. This year, of course, our CapEx number is much higher. So therefore, he is wondering whether it's intended for a particular customer on the CPU side.

    好的,查理。所以您的問題是關於我們的資本支出。基本上,查理指出,過去我們在前沿領域的巨額資本支出一直用於智慧型手機平台。當然,今年我們的資本支出數字要高得多。因此,他想知道它是否適合 CPU 方面的特定客戶。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, Charlie, let me answer the question. In fact, we don't comment on specific customer or specific area. Our CapEx guidance is based on the current long-term demand profile underpinned by the industry's megatrend.

    好吧,查理,讓我來回答這個問題。事實上,我們不會對特定客戶或特定領域發表評論。我們的資本支出指導基於行業大趨勢所支撐的當前長期需求狀況。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Charlie?

    好的,查理?

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • Yes. And there's...

    是的。還有...

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Do you have a second question?

    您還有第二個問題嗎?

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • Yes, I do. So just some feedback to C.C. I think we all understand the megatrend 5G and HPC. So the last question was just to understand whether there is additional kind of growth driver, for example, IDM outsourcing on top of the organic growth.

    是的,我願意。這只是對 C.C. 的一些回饋。我想我們都了解 5G 和 HPC 這一大趨勢。所以最後一個問題是了解是否有其他類型的成長動力,例如,在有機成長之上的 IDM 外包。

  • But my next question, I think it should be more related to your strategy because I think your existing customer, Intel, 2 days ago, they also commented about don't rule out the possibility of a licensed foundry process. And actually, 20 years ago, back in 2000, I think you also licensed the largest semi process to National Semi. So I'm not sure if TSMC, after 20 years, do you still kind of consider this kind of option, meaning license your foundry process to your IDM customer or even consider some option like a joint venture for the fab operation with your IDM customer.

    但我的下一個問題,我認為這應該與您的策略更相關,因為我認為您的現有客戶英特爾兩天前也評論說不排除採用許可代工工藝的可能性。實際上,20 年前,也就是 2000 年,我認為您還將最大的半導體製程授權給了 National Semi。因此,我不確定台積電在 20 年後是否仍會考慮這種選擇,即將代工流程授權給您的 IDM 客戶,甚至考慮與您的 IDM 客戶合資經營晶圓廠。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, again, we don't comment on a specific topic or a specific customer. But let me tell you that we are working with our customer continuously and to expand the TSMC's business and to support our customers' demand.

    好吧,再說一次,我們不會對特定主題或特定客戶發表評論。但我告訴你們,我們正在不斷與客戶合作,擴大台積電的業務並滿足客戶的需求。

  • Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

    Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. Got you. So I will be back to the queue. I have some follow-up.

    好的。好的。明白了。所以我會回到隊列。我有一些後續事宜。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Charlie.

    謝謝,查理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next to ask question, Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

    接下來提問的是 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • A question maybe first for Wendell. So on the revenue guide, I guess you're starting the year with a far better than seasonal Q1. But I just wondered, how do you see the year playing out? Should we expect in the second half a typical seasonality this year?

    也許首先要問溫德爾一個問題。因此,根據收入指南,我猜您今年的第一季業績將遠好於季節性業績。但我只是想知道,您認為今年的情況會如何?我們是否應該預期今年下半年會出現典型的季節性?

  • And then in terms of the CapEx guide for this year, obviously, there's a big step-up. And spending this year is normally a reflection of how you think about long -- future capacity growth beyond 2021. So can we assume from the big increase in CapEx this year that your implied revenue growth in 2022 will be higher than 2021?

    就今年的資本支出指南而言,顯然有很大的提升。今年的支出通常反映了您對 2021 年以後長期產能成長的看法。那麼,我們是否可以從今年資本支出的大幅增加推斷,您預測的 2022 年收入成長將高於 2021 年?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Brett has 2 questions. One, on the revenue guidance of -- we guided for mid-teens for the full year growth for 2021. So he wants to know how does it play out throughout the year. Is there -- second half, will we see the typical seasonality, first half, second half split? That's his first question.

    好的。所以 Brett 有兩個問題。第一,關於收入預期——我們預計 2021 年全年營收將成長 15% 左右。所以他想知道全年的業績表現如何。下半年,我們會看到典型的季節性,上半年和下半年的分裂嗎?這是他的第一個問題。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Yes. From what we can see now, second half is still higher than the first half.

    是的。從現在來看,下半年還是高於上半年的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And then the second part is also CapEx and growth. Looking at the increase in our CapEx investment in 2021, noting that we typically spend CapEx in advance of the growth that will follow, Brett wants to know then should we expect a big year or a large growth year in 2000 -- 2022, sorry.

    第二部分也是資本支出和成長。看看我們 2021 年資本支出的增長,注意到我們通常會在隨後的增長之前花費資本支出,布雷特想知道我們是否應該預期 2000 年至 2022 年是一個大年或一個大增長年,抱歉。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Brett, it's -- as I said, it's a bit too early to discuss 2022 in details. But C.C. just mentioned, over the next 5 years, we're looking at a higher range of CAGR.

    布雷特,正如我所說,現在詳細討論 2022 年還為時過早。但 C.C.剛才提到,未來 5 年,我們預期複合年增長率將更高。

  • And also, the CapEx spend this year means future opportunity and growth not just for the next year but also the years after that. So we're looking at multiple years of growth opportunities.

    此外,今年的資本支出意味著未來的機會和成長,不僅是明年,而且是之後幾年。因此,我們正在尋找多年的成長機會。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • And maybe just one for C.C. Wei on N3. You mentioned N3 would have the best PPA. And we're seeing a lot of transistor innovation at Intel and Samsung in the next couple of years, but you're planning to stick with FinFET at 3-nanometer. And I'm just wondering how you see the transistor density at 3-nanometer. I think at N5, you've talked about 175 million transistors per mil square is the potential of N5. How should we think about N3 in that regard? And relative to some of the transistor innovation we're seeing at Intel and Samsung, are you happy with the FinFET roadmap?

    也許對 C.C. 來說只有一個。魏先生在 N3 上。您提到 N3 將擁有最好的 PPA。我們將在未來幾年看到英特爾和三星在晶體管方面取得大量創新,但您計劃繼續使用 3 奈米 FinFET。我只是想知道您如何看待 3 奈米的晶體管密度。我認為在 N5 方面,您談到了每平方毫米 1.75 億個電晶體是 N5 的潛力。我們該如何看待N3呢?相對於我們在英特爾和三星看到的一些電晶體創新,您對 FinFET 路線圖滿意嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Brett, so your second question is regards to our N3 and our decision to continue to use FinFET transistor structure at 3-nanometer. You note that at 5-nanometer, we can deliver about 175 million transistors per millimeter square. So you want to know how this falls out at N3 or maybe in terms of our 3-nanometer in comparison to Samsung or others, how does it compare.

    好的。布雷特,你的第二個問題是關於我們的 N3 以及我們決定繼續在 3 奈米上使用 FinFET 電晶體結構。您注意到,在 5 奈米技術下,我們每平方毫米可以提供約 1.75 億個電晶體。所以你想知道這與 ​​N3 相比如何,或者與三星或其他公司相比,我們的 3 奈米技術如何。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, as I said in my statement that N3 still provide 70% of the logic density gain in addition to all the performance gain and the power reductions. Whether that's at 5-nanometer, you got 175 million transistor per millimeter square, that will depends on what the number in N3. I think that will depend on customers' design. We continue to say that we offer the FinFET because of the technology maturity, the performance and the cost are the best combination for TSMC to serve our customer.

    嗯,正如我在聲明中所說,除了性能提升和功耗降低之外,N3 仍然提供 70% 的邏輯密度增益。無論是在 5 奈米,每平方毫米都有 1.75 億個晶體管,這將取決於 N3 中的數量。我認為這取決於客戶的設計。我們繼續說,我們提供 FinFET 是因為技術成熟度、性能和成本是台積電服務客戶的最佳組合。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Brett.

    好的。謝謝你,布雷特。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, we have Roland Shu from Citigroup.

    接下來我們有請花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Congrats for the very good results. My first question is also for the CapEx spending, and there are 2 parts of my question. So with this sharply increased CapEx spending, are you considering to sign long-term contracts with customers, especially to those customers who are new to adopt your most leading-edge technology, to ensure a proper return of your investment?

    恭喜你取得非常好的成績。我的第一個問題也是關於資本支出的,我的問題分為兩個部分。那麼,在資本支出大幅增加的情況下,您是否考慮與客戶簽訂長期合同,特別是那些新採用您最前沿技術的客戶,以確保您的投資獲得適當的回報?

  • And second part of the first question is this means that you have spent ahead in CapEx in EUV because of the lower productivity for EUV when you first ramp EUV. So I would like to know how much CapEx downside you expect after you have improved EUV productivity to the optimized level.

    第一個問題的第二部分是,這意味著您在 EUV 上的資本支出已經提前了,因為當您首次增加 EUV 產量時,EUV 的生產力較低。因此,我想知道在將 EUV 生產力提高到優化水平後,您預計資本支出會下降多少。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Roland, we'll take your questions one by one. Both of them relate to CapEx. First one is that with the higher level of CapEx that we have in 2021, Roland wants to know that would we consider signing long-term contracts with customers, especially with customers that are new to TSMC, to ensure that we are making a proper return.

    好的。羅蘭,我們將逐一回答您的問題。它們都與資本支出有關。首先,鑑於我們 2021 年的資本支出水平較高,Roland 想知道我們是否會考慮與客戶簽訂長期合同,特別是與台積電的新客戶簽訂長期合同,以確保我們獲得適當的回報。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Roland, signing a contract to guarantee the loading in the future is not our common practice. We always work with our customer and continuous work with customers to serve their demand. And we also put our CapEx or expanding our capacity according to our current long-term demand forecast. All right? And did that answer your question?

    羅蘭,簽訂合約來保證將來的裝載不是我們的慣例。我們始終與客戶合作並持續與客戶合作以滿足他們的需求。我們也根據當前的長期需求預測投入資本支出或擴大產能。好的?這回答了你的問題嗎?

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Okay. Yes. Yes. I take it does.

    好的。是的。是的。我認為是的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Roland. And then your second question is also related to CapEx. Roland, let me summarize. I think you are saying that in our CapEx guidance, your assumption that the lower productivity of EUV is -- means leading to a higher CapEx level for TSMC. So your question is that if the productivity -- as the productivity of EUV improves, then we'll -- how much reduction in CapEx could we see. Is that your question? Am I summarizing that correctly?

    好的,羅蘭。然後你的第二個問題也跟資本支出有關。羅蘭,讓我總結一下。我認為您說的是,在我們的資本支出指導中,您假設 EUV 的生產力較低——這意味著台積電的資本支出水平會更高。所以你的問題是,如果生產力 - 隨著 EUV 生產力的提高,那麼我們將 - 我們可以看到資本支出減少多少。這是你的問題嗎?我的總結正確嗎?

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Yes, exactly. Yes, exactly.

    是的,確實如此。是的,確實如此。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, let me answer that. We continue to improve the EUV's productivity because we are working closely with suppliers. And so far, we -- the improvement is obvious but still not up to our expectation yet. As for the CapEx will be decreased because of improved productivity, this is in our CapEx plan already.

    好吧,讓我來回答這個問題。由於我們與供應商密切合作,我們不斷提高 EUV 的生產效率。到目前為止,我們的進步是顯而易見的,但仍然沒有達到我們的期望。至於資本支出會因為生產力提高而減少,這已經在我們的資本支出計畫中了。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Okay. Yes. So it means going forward, I mean even you have like higher EUV productivity, the CapEx spending or CapEx -- capital intensity probably would be still high next year or in the near future.

    好的。是的。所以這意味著展望未來,即使你有更高的 EUV 生產力,資本支出或資本支出——資本密集度明年或不久的將來可能仍然會很高。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Roland, his question is that even with EUV productivity and factoring it into our CapEx, that our capital intensity could remain high even into next year.

    好的。因此,羅蘭的問題是,即使有了 EUV 生產能力並將其計入我們的資本支出,我們的資本密集度在明年仍可能保持在高水準。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, whether the CapEx remained high or the CapEx intensity remained high is because of technology complexity. It's actually that N5 is much more complicated than N7, N3 is much more complicated than N5. So most of that CapEx intensity coming from this technology advancement. Of course, EUV is a part of it, but it is not the only one reason.

    那麼,資本支出是否保持高位或資本支出強度是否保持高位是因為技術的複雜性。事實上,N5 比 N7 複雜得多,N3 比 N5 複雜得多。因此,大部分資本支出強度來自於這項技術進步。當然,EUV是其中一部分原因,但不是唯一的原因。

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Okay. Fair enough.

    好的。很公平。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Roland.

    好的。謝謝你,羅蘭。

  • Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

    Roland Shu - Director & Head of Regional Semiconductor Research

  • Okay. Then my second question -- yes?

    好的。那我的第二個問題——是嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Roland, I think that's 2 questions already, sorry. Because we still have several people in the queue, I would kindly ask you to get back into the queue, so we can allow everyone a chance.

    羅蘭,我想這已經是兩個問題了,抱歉。由於我們仍有幾個人在排隊,因此我懇請您回到隊列中,以便我們給每個人一個機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have Sunny Lin from UBS.

    下一位是來自瑞銀的 Sunny Lin。

  • Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

  • My first question is that I want to follow up on 3-nanometer. I think just I want to get a bit of color on your current visibility for the customer adoption into second half of next year, how does it compare with the historical ramp of 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer and also the cost per transistor for 3-nanometer versus 5.

    我的第一個問題是想跟進 3 奈米。我想我只是想要稍微了解一下您目前對明年下半年客戶採用情況的了解,與 5 奈米和 7 奈米的歷史增長相比如何,以及 3 奈米和 5 奈米每個電晶體的成本如何。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Sunny, so your first question is on 3-nanometer. You want to know the visibility into customer adoption of 3-nanometer into second half 2022 and how does it compare to 5-nanometer or prior nodes; and also, the cost per transistor at 3-nanometer, is it still declining.

    好的。 Sunny,你的第一個問題是關於 3 奈米的。您想了解 2022 年下半年客戶採用 3 奈米的前景,以及與 5 奈米或之前的節點相比如何;而且,3奈米每個電晶體的成本是否還在下降。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Let me answer that. The cost per transistor actually continue to decrease. But for your question about engagement with the customer, we see a lot of customers, especially from the HPC field, they are increased -- been engaged with their activity with TSMC.

    讓我來回答這個問題。每個電晶體的成本實際上持續下降。但對於您與客戶互動的問題,我們看到許多客戶,特別是來自 HPC 領域的客戶,他們與台積電的合作活動有所增加。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Sunny, do you have a second question?

    好的。 Sunny,你還有第二個問題嗎?

  • Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

  • Right. So just a very quick follow-up to my first question. I wonder if C.C. will be able to provide any color regarding the ramp for 3-nanometer for second half of next year.

    正確的。所以這只是對我的第一個問題的快速跟進。我不知道 C.C.將能夠提供有關明年下半年 3 奈米技術發展的任何細節。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Okay. So early adoption from our customer is both in smartphone and HPC-related applications. That's all I can say.

    好的。因此,我們的客戶早期採用的是智慧型手機和 HPC 相關應用程式。我只能說這麼多。

  • Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

  • Got it. And then my second question is for your 2021 gross margin. So with CapEx going up significantly, how should we think about your depreciation growth for this year and also the impact on gross margin?

    知道了。我的第二個問題是關於您 2021 年的毛利率。那麼,隨著資本支出大幅增加,我們該如何看待今年的折舊成長以及對毛利率的影響?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Sunny's second question is on the 2021 overall gross margin. With a higher level of CapEx spending, she wants to know what will be the year-on-year increase in depreciation and what's the impact to the overall 2021 gross margin.

    好的。因此,Sunny 的第二個問題是關於 2021 年的整體毛利率。由於資本支出水準較高,她想知道折舊金額的年增率是多少,以及對 2021 年整體毛利率有何影響。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Sunny, the depreciation in 2021 is expected to be between mid- to high-20s percent higher than 2020. And the impact of -- to gross margins, it's too early to talk about the remaining quarters of the 2021. But as a general feeling, if you look at the capacity utilization that I just mentioned, foreign exchange rate unfavorable and also the N5 ramp, negative impact on our profitability, those are the factors that may affect our whole year 2021 gross margin. But as I've said, it's too early to talk about details on the remaining quarters.

    Sunny,預計 2021 年的貶值幅度將比 2020 年高出 25% 左右。至於對毛利率的影響,現在談論 2021 年剩餘幾季還為時過早。但總的來說,如果你看看我剛才提到的產能利用率、不利的匯率以及 N5 產量上升對我們獲利能力的負面影響,這些因素都可能影響我們 2021 年全年的毛利率。但正如我所說,現在談論剩餘幾季的細節還為時過早。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

    Sunny Lin - Director & Associate Analyst

  • Got it. Very helpful.

    知道了。非常有幫助。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Sure. Thank you, Sunny.

    當然。謝謝你,Sunny。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Right now, we're having Laura Chen from KGI.

    現在我們請到的是凱基證券的 Laura Chen。

  • Laura Chen - Research Analyst

    Laura Chen - Research Analyst

  • Congratulations for the good results and outlook. I also have the question about the CapEx and the gross margin trend. I think given your strong position in the most advanced technology node and an extremely high CapEx in recent years, I believe there must be some strong conviction on the order outlook with your major clients.

    恭喜取得良好成績並取得良好前景。我對資本支出和毛利率趨勢也有疑問。我認為,鑑於貴公司在最先進技術節點上的強勢地位以及近年來極高的資本支出,我相信貴公司對主要客戶的訂單前景一定有強烈的信心。

  • So can you share with us your view that for the N3, first year contribution will be similar to N5, that will have probably more than 10% revenue for the first year on mass production? Can we expect that to happen?

    那麼,您能否與我們分享您的看法:對於 N3,第一年的貢獻將與 N5 相似,量產後第一年的收入可能超過 10%?我們可以期待這種情況發生嗎?

  • And also, on the gross margin side, given there might be some swing factor of your major IDM clients for outsourcing opportunity, how would you manage the utilization rate which may impact your gross margin substantially? That's my first question.

    另外,在毛利率方面,考慮到您的主要 IDM 客戶可能對外包機會有一些搖擺因素,您將如何管理可能對您的毛利率產生重大影響的利用率?這是我的第一個問題。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Laura, I think that's 2 questions. But your first question is on the -- yes, on the N3, sort of noting our strong position in the advanced nodes and also the higher CapEx as an indication of the strong conviction on major clients. Laura wants to know what -- will the revenue contribution of 3-nanometer in its first year be similar to -- or how does it compare to 5-nanometer in the first year.

    好的。勞拉,我認為這是兩個問題。但您的第一個問題是——是的,關於 N3,我們注意到我們在先進節點上的強勢地位以及更高的資本支出,這表明我們對主要客戶有強烈的信心。勞拉想知道 3 奈米在第一年的收入貢獻會與 5 奈米在第一年的收入貢獻相似嗎?或與 5 奈米在第一年的收入貢獻相比如何。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Okay. Laura, it's really too early to talk about that at this moment. But as C.C. said, we believe N3, when it's out, is going to be another large and lasting node for TSMC.

    好的。勞拉,現在談論這件事還為時過早。但正如 C.C.我們相信,N3 一旦問世,將成為台積電的另一個重要且持久的節點。

  • Laura Chen - Research Analyst

    Laura Chen - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And also...

    好的。知道了。還有...

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • And then -- sorry, go ahead.

    然後——抱歉,請繼續。

  • Laura Chen - Research Analyst

    Laura Chen - Research Analyst

  • Yes. On the -- probably the swing factor of the utilization rate that may impact the gross margin potentially on the -- and particularly for advanced node, how should we look at the trend, how -- your management in that.

    是的。利用率可能是影響毛利率的波動因素,特別是對於先進節點,我們應該如何看待這一趨勢,您如何管理這一趨勢。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Laura's second question is looking at our gross margin and then also looking at opportunities, for example, in a particular IDM, if there are swings in utilization, how would we manage that and how would that impact the gross margin. Is that correct, Laura?

    好的。因此,勞拉的第二個問題是查看我們的毛利率,然後還要查看機會,例如,在特定的 IDM 中,如果利用率出現波動,我們將如何管理以及這將如何影響毛利率。對嗎,勞拉?

  • Laura Chen - Research Analyst

    Laura Chen - Research Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • We don't -- Laura, we don't comment on specific customers or business outlook. The -- what we can say is we continue to work with our customers closely and to ensure that we provide this proper capacity to them. And we also maintain a good utilization out of it.

    勞拉,我們不對具體客戶或業務前景發表評論。我們可以說的是,我們將繼續與客戶密切合作,並確保為他們提供適當的容量。而我們也對它保持了良好的利用。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And as Wendell -- yes.

    就像溫德爾一樣——是的。

  • Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

    Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

  • Laura, let me add some colors. I think our business has been driven traditionally -- in the past few years by smartphones. Starting from this year on, HPC also jumped on the wagons, and therefore, we're looking -- forward looking, we see the traditional seasonality is -- can be moderated with multiple big customers in multiple market segments. So that's our confidence.

    勞拉,讓我添加一些顏色。我認為我們的業務一直是傳統驅動力——過去幾年是由智慧型手機推動的。從今年開始,高效能運算 (HPC) 也開始興起,因此,我們展望未來,看到傳統的季節性可以透過多個細分市場的多個大客戶來調節。這就是我們的信心。

  • The other confidence is our CapEx includes 3-nanometer, also 5-nanometer. Our 5-nanometer is also very strong, stronger than we expected 3 months ago. So those 2 combined to give us the confidence to increase our CapEx.

    另一個信心是我們的資本支出包括 3 奈米,也包括 5 奈米。我們的5奈米也非常強,比我們3個月前預期的還要強。因此,這兩者結合起來使我們有信心增加資本支出。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Laura?

    好的,蘿拉?

  • Laura Chen - Research Analyst

    Laura Chen - Research Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Yes, that's very helpful.

    這非常有幫助。是的,這非常有幫助。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you, Laura.

    偉大的。謝謝你,勞拉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, we have Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank.

    接下來我們有請德意志銀行的羅伯特·桑德斯。

  • Robert Duncan Cobban Sanders - Director

    Robert Duncan Cobban Sanders - Director

  • Yes, I just got one question, actually. Just could you please then comment more on the wafer shortage situation and how severe it is at present? Which node are you seeing the shortage most acute? Is it 65-, 90-nanometer, 0.11, 0.13, whatever it is? And how far out are you essentially booked out at some of these nodes? And do you think there's wafer upside to what you're pricing at these nodes?

    是的,實際上我只有一個問題。那麼,您能否進一步評論晶圓短缺的情況以及目前的嚴重程度?您認為哪個節點的短缺最嚴重?是 65 奈米、90 奈米、0.11 奈米、0.13 奈米,還是其他什麼?在這些節點中,您的預訂情況如何?您認為這些節點的晶圓定價有上漲空間嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Robert, your question is on the tightness or shortage in the wafer. He is asking, is it at particular node such as 65-nanometer, 90-nanometer, 0.13, how short it is and how long it will last.

    好的。羅伯特,你的問題是關於晶圓的緊張或短缺。他問,它是否處於特定節點,例如 65 奈米、90 奈米、0.13,它有多短以及將持續多長時間。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Robert, most of the shortage actually is in the mature node. It's not in the 3-, not in the 5- or 7-nanometer per se, but in all the mature node, especially in 0.13 micron, in 40-nanometer, in 55-nanometer, in those area.

    羅伯特,大部分短缺實際上都發生在成熟節點。它本身並不在 3 奈米、5 奈米或 7 奈米,而是在所有成熟節點,特別是 0.13 微米、40 奈米、55 奈米這些領域。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Robert Duncan Cobban Sanders - Director

    Robert Duncan Cobban Sanders - Director

  • Can I just have one follow-up, which is just you haven't traditionally built capacity there, but they could become part of dependencies for the industry if they are continuing to be short? So would you actually consider building greenfield to help the industry or you think that other foundries will handle that?

    我可以再問一個問題嗎?就是你們傳統上沒有在那裡建立產能,但如果產能繼續短缺,它們可能會成為該行業依賴的一部分?那麼,您是否真的會考慮建立綠地來幫助該行業,或者您認為其他代工廠會處理這個問題?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Robert, your follow-up question is then given the shortage or tightness on some of these mature nodes, will we consider to expand, build new capacity at these mature nodes to alleviate any potential bottleneck risk.

    那麼羅伯特,你的後續問題是,鑑於這些成熟節點中的一些出現短缺或緊張的情況,我們是否會考慮擴展、在這些成熟節點上建立新的容量,以減輕任何潛在的瓶頸風險。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, actually, we are working with customer closely and moving some of their mature node to more advanced node, where we have a better capacity to support them. In addition to that, we also try to manage this shortage condition, try to mitigate the impact from this shortage.

    嗯,實際上,我們正​​在與客戶密切合作,將他們的一些成熟節點轉移到更先進的節點,這樣我們就有更好的能力為他們提供支援。除此之外,我們也試圖管理這種短缺狀況,試圖減輕這種短缺的影響。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay? Thank you.

    好的?謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, we have Rick Hsu from Daiwa Securities.

    接下來我們有請大和證券的 Rick Hsu。

  • Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

    Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

  • Yes, this is Rick. My first question is I guess you guys mentioned that now your customers are happy living with a higher inventory than the historical pattern because of the macro uncertainties such as COVID-19, so I wonder if your customer would still be happy living with a high inventory than the normal historical patterns if COVID-19 is contained. So this is my first question.

    是的,這是里克。我的第一個問題是,我想你們提到過,由於 COVID-19 等宏觀不確定性,現在你們的客戶樂於接受高於歷史模式的庫存,所以我想知道,如果 COVID-19 得到控制,你們的客戶是否仍然樂於接受高於正常歷史模式的庫存。這是我的第一個問題。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Rick. So your question is our -- the higher level of inventory that we're seeing partly is attributable to COVID-19. What if COVID-19 is no longer -- everyone has vaccine, then it's no longer an issue. Will this continue?

    好的。謝謝你,里克。所以您的問題是——我們看到的庫存水平較高部分歸因於 COVID-19。如果 COVID-19 不再存在——每個人都接種了疫苗,那麼它就不再是問題了。這種情況會持續下去嗎?

  • Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

    Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

  • Yes, that's right.

    是的,沒錯。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Yes, first, let's say that we really hope that the vaccine will work and -- but even if it's working, it takes time. And then also our customers still -- today, they still have a different approach for the inventory management, as we said, because of the securing of the supply is more important than anything you are seeing in today's situation. So we don't think it's really to revert back to the historical level of the inventory.

    是的,首先,我們真的希望疫苗能夠起作用——但即使它起作用,也需要時間。而且我們的客戶今天仍然採用不同的庫存管理方法,正如我們所說,因為確保供應比今天所看到的任何事情都重要。所以我們並不認為庫存真的會恢復到歷史水準。

  • Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

    Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

  • Okay. That's helpful. My second question is also regarding your CapEx because the number this year is really high. So about 80% of your high CapEx this year is going to be spent for leading edge, so I wonder how much of that portion is actually for preparation of a capacity build for 2022 and beyond, not for this year. So can you share your idea with us?

    好的。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題也與您的資本支出有關,因為今年的金額確實很高。因此,今年高額資本支出的約 80% 將用於前沿技術,所以我想知道其中有多少實際上是為了準備 2022 年及以後的產能建設,而不是為了今年。那你能和我們分享你的想法嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Rick, your question is on our CapEx. 80% -- about 80% is for the advanced nodes. He wants to know how much of this spending for the advanced nodes is in preparation for capacity for 2000 -- sorry, 2022.

    好的。那麼 Rick,你的問題是關於我們的資本支出。 80%-大約80%是用於高階節點。他想知道,在先進節點上的支出有多少是為了 2000 年(抱歉,是 2022 年)的產能做準備。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Rick, we invest this year -- actually, for future year primarily. So it's not only for 2022, it may also be for the years following that. So that's -- I think that's something that I'd like to share with you.

    里克,我們今年進行投資——實際上,主要是為了未來一年。因此,這不僅適用於 2022 年,也可能適用於此後的幾年。所以這就是——我想這就是我想與你們分享的事情。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

    Rick Hsu - Head of Regional Technology & Head of Taiwan Research

  • Okay. That's helpful. Yes.

    好的。這很有幫助。是的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Yes, no problem. Thank you, Rick.

    是的,沒問題。謝謝你,里克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, we have Andrew Lu from Sinolink Securities.

    接下來我們有請國金證券的陸嘉誠。

  • Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

  • Can you hear me?

    你聽得到我嗎?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Yes, we can hear you.

    是的,我們能聽到你的聲音。

  • Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

  • Okay. My first question is, if your customer has his own design rule, knows what's the different metal and poly pitch spec for TSMC's one, can this customer use the in-house manufacturing and TSMC foundry based on the same design? Or it needs to redesign the chip based on TSMC 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer design rule?

    好的。我的第一個問題是,如果您的客戶有自己的設計規則,並且知道台積電的金屬和多晶矽間距規格有何不同,那麼該客戶是否可以根據相同的設計使用內部製造和台積電代工廠?還是需要依照台積電5奈米、3奈米的設計規則重新設計晶片?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Andrew, let me try to summarize your question. Your question is about customers' design rules. If the customer has their own design rules but with different metal and different poly pitch from TSMC's, could this customer use TSMC foundry or use their in-house manufacturing? Or do they need to use TSMC's design rules, basically?

    好的。安德魯,讓我試著總結一下你的問題。您的問題是關於客戶的設計規則。如果客戶有自己的設計規則,但金屬和多晶矽間距與台積電不同,那麼該客戶是否可以使用台積電代工廠或使用其內部製造?或者他們基本上需要使用台積電的設計規則?

  • Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

  • That's correct.

    沒錯。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Andrew, we always work closely with our customer to support their design into TSMC's process technologies, so we can manufacture it inside TSMC.

    安德魯,我們始終與客戶密切合作,支援他們將設計融入台積電的製程技術,以便我們可以在台積電內部進行生產。

  • Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

  • So customer doesn't need to change its own design?

    那麼客戶不需要改變自己的設計嗎?

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Okay. I cannot answer this question because of -- it is 2 parties' cooperation. And as I said, we work closely with them to support their design.

    好的。我無法回答這個問題,因為這是雙方的合作。正如我所說,我們與他們密切合作以支持他們的設計。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

  • Understood.

    明白了。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

  • My second question is, since our 3-nanometer, 4-nanometer nodes will be ramping up next year, what about second half this year, will we have something like a 5-nanometer plus or revision, 5-nanometer process node for second half this year.

    我的第二個問題是,由於我們的 3 奈米、4 奈米節點明年將會加速發展,那麼今年下半年我們是否會推出 5 奈米以上或修訂版的 5 奈米製程節點。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Andrew's second question is, looking at second half of this year, noting that next year we'll have, for example, N3 and N4, then second half of this year, do we have any new node or continuous improvement, enhancement?

    好的。因此,安德魯的第二個問題是,展望今年下半年,注意到明年我們將有 N3 和 N4,那麼今年下半年,我們是否有任何新的節點或持續的改進和增強?

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Andrew, we always continue to improve the technologies. Last year, we introduced our 5-nanometer to the market. This year, we continue to improve it. And next year, we will improve further. So we never stop.

    安德魯,我們一直在不斷改進技術。去年,我們向市場推出了 5 奈米技術。今年我們繼續對其進行改進。明年,我們將會取得更大的進步。所以我們永不停歇。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

    Andrew Lu - Semiconductor Analyst

  • So something like the 5-nanometer plus?

    那麼類似 5 奈米以上的東西嗎?

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • If that's your naming, yes.

    如果這是你的名字,那麼是的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Thank you, Andrew.

    好的。謝謝你,安德魯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, we have Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

    接下來我們有請來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. First question has to do with the revenue mix forecast for Q1 by technology and platform. It will be great if you could provide some color, and I have a follow-up.

    是的。第一個問題與按技術和平台劃分的第一季收入組合預測有關。如果您能提供一些資訊那就太好了,我會跟進。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Mehdi wants to know for the first quarter, revenue by technology and revenue by platform.

    好的。因此,Mehdi 想了解第一季按技術劃分的收入和按平台劃分的收入。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Okay. Mehdi, in the first quarter, HPC, automotive and IoT will increase sequentially, while smartphone will experience a milder seasonal decline compared to its recent seasonalities.

    好的。 Mehdi 表示,第一季度,高效能運算、汽車和物聯網將較上季成長,而智慧型手機的季節性下滑幅度與近期相比將有所緩解。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • And we do not provide a breakdown guidance of revenue by technology, Mehdi, okay? So do you have a second question?

    我們不提供按技術細分的收入指導,Mehdi,好嗎?那您還有第二個問題嗎?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. Just a quick follow-up on CapEx. Does your $25 billion to $28 billion CapEx guide include investment for infrastructure in U.S.?

    是的。只是對資本支出進行快速跟進。您的 250 億至 280 億美元資本支出指南是否包括對美國基礎設施的投資?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So Mehdi's question is does our CapEx guidance this year include any investment for the U.S. fab infrastructure.

    因此,Mehdi 的問題是,我們今年的資本支出指導是否包括對美國晶圓廠基礎設施的任何投資。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Yes, it does. The U.S. fab starts construction this year.

    是的。美國工廠今年開始建設。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Can you elaborate that how much of the CapEx is for the U.S.?

    您能詳細說明其中有多少資本支出用於美國嗎?

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Not at this point. Right.

    目前還不行。正確的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay? Thank you, Mehdi.

    好的?謝謝你,邁赫迪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, Krish Sankar from Cowen and Company.

    下一位是來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. I also had 2 on CapEx. Number one, pretty nice step-up in CapEx this year from last year. Is it fair to assume your investment in EUV is also up this year relative to last year? And then I had a follow-up.

    是的。我也有 2 個資本支出。首先,今年的資本支出比去年有相當大的成長。是否可以合理地假設,今年您對 EUV 的投資相對於去年也有所增加?然後我進行了後續跟進。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Krish's first question is that with our increase in CapEx guidance -- that we guided for in 2021 versus 2020 being an increase, does that also mean an increase in the CapEx we spend on EUV.

    好的。因此,Krish 的第一個問題是,隨著我們資本支出指引的增加(我們指引 2021 年與 2020 年相比有所增加),這是否也意味著我們在 EUV 上的資本支出也會增加。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • No, we do not disclose that details.

    不,我們不會透露這些細節。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then as a follow-up, C.C., you mentioned that how capital intensity is going to be high all the way to 3-nanometer. But you also said long-term capital intensity should be in the mid-30s, so I'm just trying to square that by what do you mean by long term? Because it looks like if 3-nanometer is still going to be high for the next few years, capital intensity might be higher than mid-30s. So at what point should we expect it to get to mid-30s?

    知道了。然後作為後續問題,C.C.,您提到資本密集度將如何一直保持在高水平直至 3 奈米。但您也說長期資本密集度應該在 35% 左右,所以我只是想解釋一下您所說的長期是什麼意思?因為看起來,如果 3 奈米在未來幾年仍然保持高位,那麼資本密集度可能會高於 30 年代中期。那我們預計什麼時候它會達到 30 多歲呢?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Krish's second question is in terms of capital intensity. With the capital intensity or CapEx per K at 3-nanometer being higher, and then we're having a long-term capital intensity returning to mid-30s, he wants to know when will we return to mid-30s capital intensity level. Is that correct, Krish?

    好的。 Krish 的第二個問題是關於資本密集度的。隨著 3 奈米的資本強度或每公斤資本支出更高,並且我們的長期資本強度將回到 30 年代中期,他想知道我們何時才能回到 30 年代中期的資本強度水平。對嗎,克里什?

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Yes. Yes. We mean long-term meaning 3 to 5 years. I think 2010 to 2014 can be an example. During that period of time, the capital intensity rose from 38% to 50%, maintaining at high 40s for a couple of years and came down afterwards. Something like that should be a reference. Okay?

    是的。是的。我們所說的長期是指3到5年。我認為2010年到2014年可以作為一個例子。在此期間,資本密集度從38%上升到50%,並在幾年內維持在40%左右的高位,隨後有所下降。類似這樣的內容應該可以當作參考。好的?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thanks, Krish.

    好的。謝謝,克里什。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next one, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.

    下一位是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • Yes. One question on CapEx and depreciation. Do we -- are we having to spend CapEx a little bit ahead of what we used to spend in the past -- in the EUV era? Is that a function of having to spend maybe 6 to 9 months ahead compared to, let's say, in the immersion era? That's one.

    是的。關於資本支出和折舊的一個問題。在 EUV 時代,我們是否需要比過去多花一點資本支出?與沉浸式時代相比,這是否意味著需要提前 6 到 9 個月的時間?那是一個。

  • And how should we think about depreciation with this jump in CapEx? Wendell, can you give us a little bit of guidance in terms of how we should think about depreciation for this year and going ahead as well given the higher level of CapEx?

    那麼,我們該如何看待資本支出增加所帶來的折舊問題呢?溫德爾,您能否就我們應該如何考慮今年的折舊以及在資本支出水平較高的情況下如何繼續折舊給我們提供一些指導?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Gokul, let me summarize. Your first question is in terms of the CapEx. He wants to know that are we -- with CapEx, are we having to spend CapEx earlier now and is this because of EUV that we need to spend more CapEx earlier.

    好的。 Gokul,讓我總結一下。您的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。他想知道,我們是否需要提前花費資本支出,是否因為 EUV,我們需要提前花費更多的資本支出。

  • C. C. Wei - CEO

    C. C. Wei - CEO

  • Well, let me answer the question. The answer is yes because of, yes, a long lead time for the EUV tools. The tools are very complicated, and the supply chain for the EUV takes a long time to prepare for it. And as a result, TSMC also has to plan in advance. That's longer than the normal tools that we used to have.

    好吧,讓我來回答這個問題。答案是肯定的,因為 EUV 工具的準備時間很長。這些工具非常複雜,EUV 的供應鏈需要很長時間才能準備好。因此,台積電也必須事先規劃。這比我們以前使用的普通工具要長。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. And then Gokul's second question is looking at with the higher CapEx, the depreciation outlook.

    好的。然後,Gokul 的第二個問題是研究更高的資本支出和折舊前景。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Right. For this year, Gokul, we expect the depreciation to increase by mid-20% to high 20% for 2021 over 2020.

    正確的。 Gokul,我們預計今年 2021 年的貶值幅度將比 2020 年增加 20% 左右到 20% 以上。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay, Gokul?

    好的,Gokul?

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

    Gokul Hariharan - Head of Taiwan Equity Research and Senior Tech Analyst

  • And maybe to just add -- yes. So even with that, we are comfortable with the 50% structural gross margin.

    或許只是補充一下——是的。因此,即使如此,我們對 50% 的結構性毛利率還是感到滿意。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • So even with the higher growth and depreciation, Gokul is asking are we still comfortable with a 50% gross margin.

    因此,即使成長率和折舊率都較高,Gokul 詢問我們是否仍能接受 50% 的毛利率。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Yes. 50% gross margin as a long-term target, we think it's reasonable and achievable.

    是的。 50%的毛利率作為長期目標,我們認為是合理且可實現的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. Operator, in the interest of time, I think we'll take the last 2 callers.

    好的。接線員,為了節省時間,我想我們將接聽最後兩位來電者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay. The next caller is Randy Abrams, Crédit Suisse.

    好的。下一個來電者是瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. Yes, my first follow-up on U.S. and China, your overseas sites. For the U.S. site, you bought 1,100 acres. Do you have plans to build out a mega fab or potential to build out multi-phase of 20K wafers? And then for the China business post-Huawei, where it's down to single digits, how's your outlook for the China and also expansion of the China from 20K?

    好的。是的,我第一次關注美國和中國,也就是你們的海外網站。對於美國地塊,您購買了 1,100 英畝土地。您是否有計劃建造一座大型晶圓廠或有潛力建造 20K 晶圓的多相工廠?那麼對於華為之後的中國業務,其成長率已經下降到個位數,您對中國市場的前景如何,以及中國市場從 20K 開始的擴張前景如何?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Randy, your first question is regards to capacity and fab expansion overseas. So Randy is asking in the U.S., in Arizona, we target 20K, do we -- will we continue to build it out into a mega fab type of site. And he also wants to know in China, and I guess you're referring to Nanjing, do we have plans to further expand the capacity in Nanjing. Is that your question, correct, Randy?

    好的。那麼 Randy,你的第一個問題是關於海外產能和晶圓廠擴張的問題。因此,蘭迪在美國亞利桑那州詢問,我們的目標是 20K,我們是否會繼續將其建造成一個大型晶圓廠類型的場地。他還想知道在中國,我猜你指的是南京,我們是否有計畫進一步擴大南京的產能。這是你的問題嗎,對嗎,蘭迪?

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Yes, that's the question, just the outlook to rebound China just post-HiSilicon, where it's down to mid-single-digit contribution.

    是的,這就是問題所在,海思半導體倒閉後,中國市場前景將反彈,而其貢獻率目前已降至中等個位數。

  • Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

    Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, this is Mark. Let me take your question. Yes, we recently acquired a big piece of land in Phoenix, 1,100 acres. Definitely, that was the long-term plan to have a mega-scale production sites. But currently, our plan is only work on the Phase 1 production and targetting 2024 with 20,000 wafer per month. And we'll -- going forward, we'll see according to the market condition and the cost economics and provided by the government support to mend the cost differences to decide the next steps.

    是的,這是馬克。我來回答你的問題。是的,我們最近在鳳凰城購買了一大塊土地,1,100 英畝。毫無疑問,這是建立超大規模生產基地的長期計畫。但目前,我們的計劃僅進行第一階段的生產,目標是在 2024 年實現每月 20,000 片晶圓。展望未來,我們將根據市場狀況、成本經濟以及政府提供的支援來彌補成本差異,以決定下一步的措施。

  • On China, yes, we do have plan to continue to expand in China. But of course, the business in China at leading edge will -- does have a reset. But we do expect the demand in China will continue, and we will gradually, accordingly increase our capacity in Nanjing.

    關於中國,是的,我們確實計劃繼續在中國擴張。但當然,中國處於領先地位的業務確實會重新開始。但我們確實預期中國的需求將持續下去,因此我們將逐步增加在南京的產能。

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay. Okay. Great. And my second question is if you could give -- I think you gave first quarter, but the full year growth for each of the platforms. And also for the backend, where you're doubling CapEx, what's leading that investment between the InFO, CoWoS, SoIC in growth outlook for backend?

    好的。好的。偉大的。我的第二個問題是,您是否可以提供——我認為您給出了第一季的數據,但同時也給出了每個平台的全年成長。對於後端,您將資本支出增加了一倍,那麼在後端的成長前景中,InFO、CoWoS、SoIC 之間的投資有何影響?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Randy is asking about 2021 growth, first, growth outlook by platform and then growth outlook by the backend; and then between the backend, InFO, CoWoS, by segment.

    好的。因此,蘭迪詢問的是 2021 年的成長情況,首先是平台的成長前景,然後是後端的成長前景;然後按段在後端、InFO、CoWoS 之間。

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Okay. Randy, for 2021 by platform, we think HPC and automotive growth will be higher than the corporate average growth. Smartphone and IoT will be similar to the corporate average growth in U.S. dollar terms. In terms of our backend business, we expect it to grow slightly higher than the corporate in 2021. We do not disclose details within the back-end business.

    好的。蘭迪,對於 2021 年的平台而言,我們認為 HPC 和汽車的成長將高於企業平均成長。以美元計算,智慧型手機和物聯網的成長速度將與企業平均成長速度相似。就我們的後端業務而言,我們預計其在 2021 年的成長將略高於公司整體。我們不會透露後端業務的細節。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

    Randy Abrams - MD and Head of Taiwan Research in the Equity Research Department

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thanks, Randy.

    好的。謝謝,蘭迪。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next one, we have Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

    下一位請到的是來自里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Yes. Two follow-up. The first one is to follow on Mark's comments that, yes, I think Mark previously said that the company has noted 5-nanometer demand also stronger than you thought 3 months ago. So I would be curious about if you can give us more details about which applications are you seeing a stronger-than-expected demand.

    是的。兩人跟進。第一個是關於馬克的評論,是的,我認為馬克之前說過,公司已經注意到 5 納米的需求也比你 3 個月前想像的要強勁。因此,我很好奇您是否可以向我們提供更多詳細信息,說明哪些應用程式的需求強於預期。

  • Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

    Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

  • High-performance computing.

    高效能運算。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • So for high-performance computing, is it the typical, those consumer electronics or is more typical HPC or blockchain related?

    那麼對於高效能運算來說,它是典型的消費性電子產品還是更典型的 HPC 或區塊鏈相關產品?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Sorry, I didn't hear the -- we didn't hear the last part, Sebastian.

    抱歉,我沒有聽到——我們沒有聽到最後一部分,塞巴斯蒂安。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Yes, I'm sorry. I was saying that for the HPC part, is it more related to your existing customers or more related to the blockchain-related products?

    是的,我很抱歉。我說的是HPC部分,跟你們現有的客戶更相關還是跟區塊鏈相關的產品更相關?

  • Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

    Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

  • Let me add a little bit color on this. High-performance computing, as Wendell just said, will be the major growth driver of our business. And this field is currently under exciting changes. As the high-performance computing's architectures, as you know, from different customers, everybody is striving to get the best performance with different architectures. So many, many -- many more players are getting into this field. So we see a stronger innovation is coming our way on N3 as well as on N5, yes.

    讓我給它添加一點色彩。高效能運算,正如溫德爾剛才所說,將成為我們業務的主要成長動力。而這個領域目前正在發生令人興奮的變化。如您所知,對於高效能運算的架構,不同的客戶都力求透過不同的架構獲得最佳效能。越來越多的參與者正在進入這個領域。因此,我們看到 N3 和 N5 上正在出現更強大的創新,是的。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. That's good.

    好的。好的。那挺好的。

  • Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

    Mark Liu - Chairman of the Board

  • Cryptocurrency -- it's not on cryptocurrency, Sebastian. We don't count on that, but we support that, yes.

    加密貨幣——它不是加密貨幣,塞巴斯蒂安。我們不指望這一點,但是我們支持這一點,是的。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Yes, that's fair. And the second follow-up is a follow-up to Wendell's comments on that I think in this year is, based on the guidance, that we will see the CapEx intensity to go up to 50%. So if we calculate -- based on the revenue guidance, if we do some calculations, which means the free cash flow for this year could be -- the growth will likely to be -- will be pretty small or even flat, depends on how things go, but definitely not as strong as past few years. So my question is that is the company still sticking to the dividend policy that is 70% of free cash flow?

    好的。是的,這很公平。第二個問題是對溫德爾評論的後續關注,我認為,根據指導,今年我們的資本支出強度將上升至 50%。因此,如果我們根據收入指引進行計算,如果我們進行一些計算,這意味著今年的自由現金流可能會——成長可能會——相當小甚至持平,這取決於情況的發展,但肯定不會像過去幾年那麼強勁。所以我的問題是,公司是否仍堅持70%自由現金流的股利政策?

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay. So Sebastian, your question is then in looking at the CapEx, looking at our revenue guidance, the capital intensity this year being about around 50%, then the free cash flow growth may slow this year. So what is the outlook for the dividend? Do we still use 70% of free cash flow as the cash dividend formula?

    好的。那麼塞巴斯蒂安,你的問題是,看看資本支出,看看我們的收入指導,今年的資本密集度約為 50%,那麼今年的自由現金流增長可能會放緩。那麼股息前景如何?我們是否仍使用70%的自由現金流作為現金股利公式?

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • Right. Sebastian, our dividend policy has 2 parts, 70% of free cash flow but not to be lower than the previous period. So we remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend. During the periods of higher investments, the focus will be more on sustainable. And as we harvest the growth, the focus will be on steadily increasing.

    正確的。塞巴斯蒂安,我們的股利政策分為兩部分,70% 的自由現金流,但不能低於上一期。因此,我們仍致力於可持續、穩定增加現金股利。在投資增加的時期,重點將更加放在永續性上。隨著我們收穫成長,重點將放在穩定成長上。

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Okay. So given that you're paying the -- the investor is getting the dividend in this quarter, which is the earnings you made like 3 quarters earlier, so if we do the calculation simulation, which means that in the next 24 months, the investor will probably still getting the TWD 2.50 per quarter. Is that a fair calculation assumption?

    好的。因此,假設您支付——投資者將在本季度獲得股息,也就是您前 3 個季度獲得的收益,因此如果我們進行計算模擬,這意味著在接下來的 24 個月內,投資者可能仍會每季度獲得 2.50 新台幣。這是一個公平的計算假設嗎?

  • Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

    Wendell Huang - VP & CFO

  • At least. At least.

    至少。至少。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • Okay?

    好的?

  • Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

    Sebastian Hou - Research Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

    Jeff Su - Director of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thanks, Sebastian. Okay. Thank you, everyone. This concludes our Q&A session.

    好的。謝謝,塞巴斯蒂安。好的。謝謝大家。我們的問答環節到此結束。

  • Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

    在今天的會議結束之前,請注意,會議的重播將在 4 小時後提供。會議記錄將於 24 小時後公佈,可透過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 取得。

  • So thank you for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe, and we hope you join us again next quarter. Goodbye, and have a great day.

    感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望每個人都能保持健康和安全,並希望您在下個季度再次加入我們。再見,祝您有美好的一天。