台積電 ADR (TSM) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to TSMC's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call.

（外語）女士們，先生們，歡迎來到台積電2020年第一季度財報電話會議。

This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

我是台積電投資者關係總監 Jeff Su，也是今天的主持人。

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials.

為防止 COVID-19 的傳播，台積電將通過公司網站 www.tsmc.com 以現場音頻網絡直播的方式主持我們的收益電話會議，您還可以在該網站下載收益發布材料。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天活動的形式如下。

First, TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will provide the opening remarks.

首先，台積電董事長劉國強博士將致開幕辭。

Next, TSMC's Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the first quarter 2020, followed by our guidance for the second quarter 2020.

接下來，台積電副總裁兼首席財務官黃文德先生將總結我們在 2020 年第一季度的運營情況，然後是我們對 2020 年第二季度的指導。

Afterwards, Mr. Huang; and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，黃先生；和台積電首席執行官 C.C.魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then Dr. Liu will host a Q&A session, where all 3 executives will entertain your questions.

然後劉博士將主持一個問答環節，所有 3 位高管將回答您的問題。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中出現的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, for his opening remarks.

現在，我想請台積電董事長劉馬克博士發表開場白。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

My name is Mark Liu, here.

我叫劉馬克，這裡是。

Before we start our financial report, I want to take a moment to thank each of you for joining us online today.

在我們開始我們的財務報告之前，我想花點時間感謝你們今天在線加入我們。

To many of you from different parts of the world, in this very time of devastating pandemic, our thoughts and hearts are with you.

對於來自世界不同地區的許多人，在這個毀滅性大流行的時刻，我們的思念和心與你們同在。

TSMC, so far, safeguarded our global operations successfully, but we do not take it for granted.

到目前為止，台積電成功地保護了我們的全球業務，但我們並不認為這是理所當然的。

We will continue our utmost efforts to weather this storm, and we are in this together.

我們將繼續盡最大努力渡過這場風暴，我們將同舟共濟。

In the meantime, I want to extend our best wishes to you and your families for staying safe and healthy.

與此同時，我想向您和您的家人致以最良好的祝愿，祝您平安健康。

So now let me turn the microphone over to Wendell for the summary of operations and current quarterly guidance.

所以現在讓我把麥克風交給溫德爾，聽取運營總結和當前季度指導。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

My presentation will start with the financial highlights for the first quarter, followed by the guidance for the current quarter.

我的演講將從第一季度的財務亮點開始，然後是本季度的指導。

First quarter revenue in NT decreased 2.1% sequentially, which is less than seasonality, due to the increase in HPC-related demand and the continued ramp of 5G smartphones.

由於與 HPC 相關的需求增加以及 5G 智能手機的持續增長，北領地第一季度收入環比下降 2.1%，低於季節性。

Gross margin increased 1.6 percentage points sequentially to 51.8%, thanks to a higher level of utilization, which was partially offset by an unfavorable exchange rate.

由於更高的利用率，毛利率環比增長 1.6 個百分點至 51.8%，這部分被不利的匯率所抵消。

Total operating expenses decreased by TWD 2.6 billion, mainly as 5-nanometer technology moved from R&D stage to mass production during the first quarter.

總營業費用減少新台幣26億元，主要是因為第一季度5納米技術從研發階段進入量產階段。

Operating margin increased by 2.2 percentage points sequentially to 41.4%.

營業利潤率環比增長 2.2 個百分點至 41.4%。

Overall, our first quarter EPS was TWD 4.51, and ROE was 28.4%.

總體而言，我們第一季度的每股收益為新台幣 4.51 元，淨資產收益率為 28.4%。

Now let's move on to the revenue by technology.

現在讓我們繼續討論技術收入。

7-nanometer process technology contributed 35% of wafer revenue in the first quarter.

7納米工藝技術在第一季度貢獻了35%的晶圓收入。

10-nanometer was 0.5% and 16-nanometer was 19%.

10 納米為 0.5%，16 納米為 19%。

Advanced technologies, which are defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 55% of wafer revenue.

定義為 16 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 55%。

Now move on to the revenue contribution by platform.

現在轉到平台的收入貢獻。

Smartphone decreased 9% quarter-over-quarter to account for 49% of our first quarter revenue.

智能手機環比下降 9%，占我們第一季度收入的 49%。

HPC increased 3% to account for 30%.

HPC 增長了 3%，佔 30%。

IoT increased 8% to account for 9%.

物聯網增長了 8%，佔 9%。

Automotive decreased 1% to account for 4%.

汽車下降 1%，佔 4%。

Digital consumer electronics increased 44% to account for 5%.

數字消費電子產品增長 44%，佔 5%。

Moving on to balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 562 billion.

我們在第一季度結束時擁有 5620 億新台幣的現金和有價證券。

On the liability side, current liabilities remained relatively flattish.

負債方面，流動負債保持相對平穩。

On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days was 42 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數為42天。

Days of inventory decreased 2 days to 53 days with higher wafer shipment in the quarter.

由於本季度晶圓出貨量增加，庫存天數減少 2 天至 53 天。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the first quarter, we generated about TWD 203 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 193 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 65 billion for second quarter '19 cash dividend.

第一季度，我們從運營中產生了約 2030 億新台幣的現金，在資本支出上花費了 1930 億新台幣，並為 19 年第二季度的現金股息分配了 650 億新台幣。

We also increased TWD 20 billion in short-term loans mainly for hedging purpose.

我們還增加了 200 億新台幣的短期貸款，主要用於對沖目的。

Overall, our cash balance decreased TWD 25 billion to TWD 431 billion at the end of the quarter.

總體而言，本季度末我們的現金餘額減少了 250 億新台幣至 4310 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our first quarter capital expenditures reached USD 6.4 billion.

按美元計算，我們第一季度的資本支出達到 64 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to our second quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向我們的第二季度指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect our second quarter revenue to be between USD 10.1 billion and USD 10.4 billion, which represent a 0.6% sequential decrease at the midpoint.

根據當前的業務前景，我們預計第二季度收入將在 101 億美元至 104 億美元之間，中值環比下降 0.6%。

Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30, gross margin is expected to be between 50% and 52%, operating margin between 39% and 41%.

基於 1 美元兌 30 新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在 50% 和 52% 之間，營業利潤率在 39% 和 41% 之間。

Now I will hand over the call to C.C. for his key message.

現在我將把電話交給C.C.為他的關鍵信息。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們先生們，下午好。

We hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.

我們希望每個人都保持安全和健康。

Let me start with COVID-19 preventive measurement at TSMC.

讓我從台積電的 COVID-19 預防措施開始。

To prevent the epidemic of COVID-19, many of us around the world have had to change the way we live and work since mid-January.

為了防止 COVID-19 的流行，自 1 月中旬以來，世界各地的許多人不得不改變我們的生活和工作方式。

Let me start with by sharing something that -- what we take at TSMC.

讓我首先分享一些東西——我們在台積電所做的事情。

Our top priority is to protect the health and safety of all our employees at all time.

我們的首要任務是始終保護所有員工的健康和安全。

At the outbreak of COVID-19, we immediately suspended all noncritical business travel and restricted visit on-site access, with mandatory self screening.

在 COVID-19 爆發時，我們立即暫停了所有非關鍵商務旅行並限制了現場訪問，並進行了強制性自我篩查。

All employees are required to do daily temperature checks, with self declaration; wear masks all the time; and practice social distancing in the office.

所有員工都必須每天進行體溫檢測，並自我聲明；一直戴口罩；並在辦公室保持社交距離。

Since late March, we have taken further preventive actions such as having employee work from home where possible, physically separating on-site employees into red and blue teams to reduce the risk of community spread.

自 3 月下旬以來，我們採取了進一步的預防措施，例如盡可能讓員工在家工作，將現場員工分成紅色和藍色團隊，以降低社區傳播的風險。

On March 18, we found one employee who tested positive for COVID-19 and immediately began receiving appropriate care.

3 月 18 日，我們發現一名員工的 COVID-19 檢測呈陽性，並立即開始接受適當的護理。

Today, this employee has recovered, is out of the hospital and is staying at home for additional quarantine.

今天，這名員工已經康復出院，正在家中進行額外隔離。

We were able to swiftly trace all the other individual who were in contact.

我們能夠迅速追踪所有其他接觸過的人。

The neighboring employees have all tested negative, while all other employees who were in contact has entered and completed the 14-day self-quarantine and now back to work.

周邊員工檢測結果均為陰性，其他接觸過的員工均已進入並完成14天的自我隔離，現已返回工作崗位。

As a result of the strict preventive measure taken by TSMC, we have not seen any disruption of our fab operations so far.

由於台積電採取了嚴格的預防措施，到目前為止，我們的晶圓廠運營沒有出現任何中斷。

Now I will talk about our near-term demand outlook.

現在我將談談我們的近期需求前景。

We concluded our first quarter with revenue of TWD 310.6 billion or USD 10.3 billion.

我們以 3106 億新台幣或 103 億美元的收入結束了第一季度。

In line with our guidance given 3 months ago, our first quarter business declined about 1% sequentially, which is much less than seasonality, due to the increase in HPC-related demand and the continued ramp of 5G smartphone.

根據我們 3 個月前給出的指引，我們第一季度的業務環比下降了約 1%，這遠低於季節性，這是由於與 HPC 相關的需求增加以及 5G 智能手機的持續增長。

Moving into second quarter 2020, we expect our revenue to be flattish, as weaker mobile product demand is expected to be balanced by continued 5G deployment and HPC-related product launches.

進入 2020 年第二季度，我們預計我們的收入將持平，因為疲軟的移動產品需求預計將通過持續的 5G 部署和 HPC 相關產品發布來平衡。

While we have not seen significant order reduction from our customers, so far, we do observe supply chain dislocation and weaker end market demand from COVID-19 in the first half of this year.

雖然我們沒有看到客戶的訂單顯著減少，但到目前為止，我們確實觀察到今年上半年 COVID-19 造成的供應鏈錯位和終端市場需求疲軟。

In the near term, we have observed weaker end demand in applications such as consumer electronics and automotives.

在短期內，我們觀察到消費電子和汽車等應用的終端需求疲軟。

Meanwhile, we have also observed better demand from HPC, as compared to 3 months ago, driven by the trends such as work from home.

同時，在居家辦公等趨勢的推動下，與 3 個月前相比，HPC 的需求有所增加。

Looking ahead to the second half of this year.

展望今年下半年。

Due to the market uncertainty, we adopt a more conservative view as we expect COVID-19 to continue to bring some level of disruption to the end market demand.

由於市場的不確定性，我們採取更保守的觀點，因為我們預計 COVID-19 將繼續對終端市場需求造成一定程度的破壞。

For the whole year of 2020, we now forecast the overall semiconductor market excluding memory growth to be flattish to slightly decline, while foundry industry growth is expect to be high single-digit to low-teens percentage.

對於 2020 年全年，我們現在預測不包括內存增長的整體半導體市場將持平至略有下降，而晶圓代工行業的增長預計將達到高個位數至低雙位數。

For TSMC, although this uncertainty exists, we believe we can do better and grow at mid- to high-teens percentage in 2020 in U.S. dollar term.

對於台積電來說，儘管存在這種不確定性，但我們相信我們可以做得更好，並在 2020 年以美元計算實現中高雙位數的增長。

All the above forecasts for semiconductor exclude memory market; foundry; and TSMC are based upon the assumption of COVID-19 stabilizing in June of this year.

以上對半導體的所有預測均不包括內存市場；鑄造廠；和台積電基於 COVID-19 在今年 6 月穩定的假設。

Now let me talk about the progress and development of 5G and HPC.

下面我來說說5G和HPC的進展和發展。

With the recent disruption from COVID-19, we now expect global smartphone units to decline high single digit year-over-year in 2020.

隨著最近 COVID-19 的中斷，我們現在預計全球智能手機出貨量將在 2020 年同比下降高個位數。

However, 5G network deployment continues and OEMs continue to prepare to launch 5G phones.

然而，5G 網絡部署仍在繼續，OEM 繼續準備推出 5G 手機。

We maintain our forecast for mid-teens penetration rate for 5G smartphone of the total smartphone market in 2020.

我們維持對 2020 年 5G 智能手機在整個智能手機市場中的十幾歲滲透率的預測。

We continue to expect faster penetration of 5G smartphones, as compared to 4G, over the next several years, with substantially higher silicon content.

我們繼續預計，與 4G 相比，未來幾年 5G 智能手機的滲透率將更快，矽含量將大大提高。

Thus, we believe 5G as a multiyear megatrend is still strong and will fuel the growth of all 4 of our growth platforms in the next several years.

因此，我們認為 5G 作為多年大趨勢仍然強勁，並將在未來幾年推動我們所有 4 個增長平台的增長。

HPC will be another major long-term growth driver for TSMC.

HPC 將是台積電另一個主要的長期增長動力。

In the next few years, a smarter and more intelligent world connected by 5G networks will require massive increase in computation power.

未來幾年，通過 5G 網絡連接的更智能、更智能的世界將需要計算能力的大幅提升。

CPU, networking and AI accelerators will be the main growth area for our HPC platform.

CPU、網絡和 AI 加速器將是我們 HPC 平台的主要增長領域。

Thus, while near-term uncertainty exists, we will continue to invest in our R&D and technology capabilities to capture the future opportunities from the strong 5G-related and HPC megatrends.

因此，雖然近期存在不確定性，但我們將繼續投資於我們的研發和技術能力，以抓住強大的 5G 相關和 HPC 大趨勢帶來的未來機遇。

We reaffirm our goal to grow at the high end of our long-term growth projection of 5% to 10% CAGR in U.S. dollar terms.

我們重申我們的目標是在我們以美元計算的 5% 至 10% 複合年增長率的長期增長預測的高端增長。

Now let me talk about the ramp-up of N7, N7+ and the status of N6.

下面說一下N7、N7+的爬坡和N6的現狀。

In its third year of ramp, N7 continued to see very strong demand across a wide spectrum of products for mobile, HPC, IoT and automotive applications.

在第三年的增長中，N7 繼續看到對移動、高性能計算、物聯網和汽車應用等廣泛產品的強勁需求。

Our N7+ is entering its second year of ramp using EUV lithography technology while paving the way for N6.

我們的 N7+ 使用 EUV 光刻技術進入第二年，同時為 N6 鋪平道路。

Our N6 provides a clear migration path for next-wave N7 products, as the design rule are fully compatible with N7.

我們的 N6 為下一波 N7 產品提供了清晰的遷移路徑，因為設計規則與 N7 完全兼容。

N6 has already entered risk production and is on track for volume production before the end of this year.

N6已經進入風險生產階段，有望在今年年底前實現量產。

N6 will have one more EUV layer than N7+ and will further extend our 7-nanometer family well into the future.

N6 將比 N7+ 多一層 EUV 層，並將進一步擴展我們的 7 納米系列到未來。

We expect our 7-nanometer family to continue to grow in its third year and reaffirm it will contribute more than 30% of our wafer revenue in 2020.

我們預計我們的 7 納米系列將在第三年繼續增長，並重申它將在 2020 年貢獻我們晶圓收入的 30% 以上。

Now let me talk about our N5 status.

現在讓我談談我們的N5狀態。

N5 is already in volume production with good yield.

N5已經量產，良率良好。

Our N5 technology is a full node stride from our N7, with 80% logic density gain and about 20% speed gain compared with N7.

我們的 N5 技術是 N7 的全節點技術，與 N7 相比，邏輯密度提高了 80%，速度提高了約 20%。

N5 will adopt EUV extensively.

N5將大量採用EUV。

We expect a very fast and smooth ramp of N5 in the second half of this year driven by both mobile and HPC applications.

我們預計在移動和 HPC 應用程序的推動下，今年下半年 N5 的增長將非常快速和平穩。

We'll reiterate 5-nanometer will contribute about 10% of our wafer revenue in 2020.

我們重申 5 納米將在 2020 年貢獻我們晶圓收入的 10% 左右。

N5 is the foundry industry's most advanced solution with best PPA.

N5 是代工行業最先進的解決方案，具有最佳的 PPA。

We observed a higher number of tape-outs, as compared with N7 at the same period of time.

與同期的 N7 相比，我們觀察到更多的流片。

We will offer continuous enhancements to further improve the performance, power and density of our 5-nanometer technology solution into the future as well.

我們將提供持續的改進，以在未來進一步提高我們 5 納米技術解決方案的性能、功率和密度。

Thus, we are confident that 5-nanometer will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

因此，我們有信心5奈米將會是台積電又一個大而持久的節點。

Finally, I will talk about our N3 status.

最後說一下我們的N3狀態。

Our N3 technology development is on track, with risk production scheduled in 2021 and target volume production in second half of 2022.

我們的 N3 技術開發進展順利，計劃於 2021 年進行風險生產，並於 2022 年下半年實現目標量產。

We have carefully evaluated all the different technology options for our N3 technology, and our decision is to continue to use FinFET transistor structure to deliver the best technology maturity, performance and costs.

我們仔細評估了 N3 技術的所有不同技術選項，我們決定繼續使用 FinFET 晶體管結構，以提供最佳的技術成熟度、性能和成本。

Our N3 technology will be another full node stride from our N5, with about a 70% larger density gain, 10 to 15% speed again and 25% to 30% power improvement as compared with N5.

我們的 N3 技術將是 N5 的又一次全節點跨越，與 N5 相比，密度增益提高了約 70%，速度再次提高了 10% 到 15%，功率提高了 25% 到 30%。

Our 3-nanometer technology will be the most advanced foundry technology in both PPA and transistor technology when it is introduced and will further extend our leadership position well into the future.

我們的 3 納米技術在推出時將成為 PPA 和晶體管技術中最先進的代工技術，並將進一步擴大我們在未來的領先地位。

Now let me turn the microphone over to our CFO.

現在讓我把麥克風交給我們的首席財務官。

Thank you, C.C.

謝謝你，C.C.

Let me start by making some comments on our second quarter and second half profitability outlook.

首先讓我對我們第二季度和下半年的盈利前景發表一些評論。

We have just guided second quarter of 2020 gross margin to be similar to the first quarter.

我們剛剛指導 2020 年第二季度的毛利率與第一季度相似。

Looking ahead to second half, we expect the steep ramp-up of our 5-nanometer will dilute our second half gross margin by about 2 to 3 percentage points.

展望下半年，我們預計 5 納米的急劇增長將稀釋我們下半年的毛利率約 2 至 3 個百分點。

In addition, our overall capacity utilization may be impacted by the uncertainty from COVID-19.

此外，我們的整體產能利用率可能會受到 COVID-19 的不確定性的影響。

Thus, our gross margin in the second half of this year may be several percentage points lower than in the first half.

因此，我們今年下半年的毛利率可能會比上半年低幾個百分點。

Looking at our other profitability factors: Our leadership in technology development and ramp-up remains strong.

看看我們的其他盈利因素：我們在技術開發和升級方面的領先地位仍然很強大。

We continue to provide value to our customers and drive aggressive cost reduction.

我們繼續為我們的客戶提供價值並推動積極的成本削減。

Thus, we believe our long-term gross margin target of about 50% is still a good target.

因此，我們認為 50%左右的長期毛利率目標仍然是一個不錯的目標。

Now let me talk about our capital budget for this year.

現在讓我談談我們今年的資本預算。

Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years.

每年，我們的資本支出都用於預期未來幾年的增長。

While the impact of COVID-19 virus brings near-term uncertainties, we expect the multiyear megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications to continue to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years.

雖然 COVID-19 病毒的影響帶來了近期的不確定性，但我們預計 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年大趨勢將在未來幾年繼續推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求。

Thus, we reaffirm our 2020 capital budget to be between USD 15 billion and USD 16 billion.

因此，我們重申 2020 年的資本預算在 150 億美元至 160 億美元之間。

Now I will make some comments on our capital management and shareholder returns.

現在我將就我們的資本管理和股東回報發表一些評論。

The objectives of TSMC's capital management are to fund the capital -- the company's growth organically, generate good profitability, preserve financial flexibility and distribute a sustainable cash dividend to shareholders.

台積電資本管理的目標是為資本提供資金——公司的有機增長，產生良好的盈利能力，保持財務靈活性，並向股東分配可持續的現金股息。

With our solid financial performance, strong balance sheet and cash position and capacity to take on debt, we're able to aggressively invest in our future to enhance our technologies and capabilities.

憑藉我們穩健的財務業績、強勁的資產負債表和現金狀況以及承擔債務的能力，我們能夠積極投資於我們的未來，以增強我們的技術和能力。

This enables us to continue to outgrow the semiconductor industry even in an extreme macroeconomic environment like this year.

這使我們即使在像今年這樣極端的宏觀經濟環境下也能繼續超越半導體行業。

With our rigorous capital management, we remain committed to sustainable cash dividends on both an annual and quarterly basis.

憑藉我們嚴格的資本管理，我們仍然致力於每年和每季度的可持續現金股息。

Meanwhile, with the semiconductor industry's highest credit rating, we're able to bolster our cash balance by issuing corporate bonds at a low interest rate.

同時，憑藉半導體行業最高的信用評級，我們能夠通過以低利率發行公司債券來增強我們的現金餘額。

That concludes my message.

我的信息到此結束。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。

(Operator Instructions) Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate into English before our management answers your question.

（操作員說明）如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在我們的管理人員回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Now let's begin the Q&A session.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

Operator, can we please proceed with the first caller on the line, please?

接線員，我們可以繼續接聽線路上的第一個來電者嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The first question we have is from the line of Randy Abrams from Crédit Suisse.

我們的第一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Randy Abrams。

First question is just 2 parts, wanted to go into the change in forecasts versus January, if you could give an update on the change in expectation across our growth platforms.

第一個問題只有 2 個部分，想了解與 1 月份相比的預測變化，是否可以提供有關我們增長平台的預期變化的最新信息。

Which areas are you revising?

您要修改哪些區域？

And have you seen -- interested if you've seen a change in customer orders or you're proactively expecting this to come.

你有沒有看到 - 如果你看到客戶訂單發生變化或者你主動期待這種變化會感興趣。

And the second part, if -- you sometimes give a view on inventory levels.

第二部分，如果 - 你有時會給出庫存水平的看法。

Factoring your sales have held up in planning guidance, if you could give an expectation on where you think inventory levels at your customers are trending and if you're factoring in any risk of correction of inventory levels and some of the supply bottlenecks ease.

如果您可以對您認為客戶庫存水平的趨勢給出預期，並且您是否考慮了庫存水平修正的任何風險以及一些供應瓶頸的緩解，那麼將您的銷售考慮在內。

Okay.

好的。

Randy, please allow me to try to make sure and repeat your question.

蘭迪，請允許我嘗試確認並重複您的問題。

So your first question is 2 parts.

所以你的第一個問題是 2 個部分。

You want to know what is driving the change in our forecasts as compared to what we have said in January.

您想知道與我們 1 月份所說的相比，是什麼推動了我們的預測發生變化。

Have we seen any change in the outlook for our different platforms?

我們是否看到不同平台的前景有任何變化？

Have we seen changes in customer orders?

我們是否看到客戶訂單發生變化？

Or is part of our forecast assumption sort of what will happen in the second half?

或者我們的預測假設的一部分是下半年會發生什麼？

And then the second part of the question is on the fabless and the inventory level that we see.

然後問題的第二部分是關於我們看到的無晶圓廠和庫存水平。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

All right.

好的。

This is C.C. Wei.

這是 C.C.魏。

Let me answer that why we changed our forecast.

讓我回答為什麼我們改變了我們的預測。

Because we do observe some of the end markets become soft.

因為我們確實觀察到一些終端市場變得疲軟。

As I state in the statement, that we saw some consumer electronics such as smartphone or those kind of thing has been in the end market become much softer than we thought.

正如我在聲明中所說，我們看到一些消費電子產品，如智能手機或類似的東西在終端市場變得比我們想像的要軟得多。

However -- so we do the forecasts not based on the customers' order because of, customer today, as I said, we did not see any significant reduction in our customer demand.

但是 - 所以我們的預測不是基於客戶的訂單，因為今天的客戶，正如我所說，我們沒有看到客戶需求有任何顯著減少。

But we do expect the end demand will have some impact in the following second half of this year.

但我們確實預計終端需求將在今年下半年產生一些影響。

As a result, we changed our -- well, we modified our forecasts as compared with January's number.

結果，我們改變了我們的 - 嗯，我們修改了與 1 月份數字相比的預測。

To be specific: Except for the HPC -- the HPC has been very strong.

具體來說：除了 HPC——HPC 一直非常強大。

All other 3 area, like smartphone, IoT or automotive, are decreasing our forecasts as compared with that we announced in January.

與我們在 1 月份宣布的相比，所有其他 3 個領域，如智能手機、物聯網或汽車，都在降低我們的預測。

Okay.

好的。

Let me take the inventory part.

讓我來看看庫存部分。

The inventory level of our fabless customers that we track was healthy exiting fourth quarter of last year.

我們追踪的無晶圓廠客戶的庫存水平在去年第四季度保持健康。

However, given the disruption from COVID-19, we currently expect that inventory level to rise in first half of '20 before digesting in second half of '20.

然而，鑑於 COVID-19 的中斷，我們目前預計庫存水平將在 20 世紀上半年上升，然後在 20 世紀下半年消化。

Okay.

好的。

Randy, yes, do you have a second question?

蘭迪，是的，你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Second question, and it really gets into the U.S. There's been press stories about them considering equipment license restrictions.

第二個問題，它真的進入了美國。有媒體報導說他們正在考慮設備許可證限制。

And I'm curious if you could discuss how you're managing the risk or how much risk you see from that equipment license requirement that could affect one of your key customers.

我很好奇你是否可以討論你是如何管理風險的，或者你從可能影響你的一個主要客戶的設備許可要求中看到了多少風險。

And in terms of the CapEx budget for this year, do you still have flexibility to make any changes to this year either for this factor or for COVID-19 if the impact appears a bit worse?

就今年的資本支出預算而言，如果影響看起來更糟，您是否仍然可以靈活地針對這個因素或 COVID-19 對今年進行任何更改？

Or is it pretty much locked in for 2020?

或者它幾乎鎖定在 2020 年？

Okay.

好的。

Sorry, Randy.

對不起，蘭迪。

You're a little bit breaking up, so let me try to summarize your question.

你有點分手了，所以讓我試著總結一下你的問題。

So your second question, first, you relate to some of the news reports on the potential for U.S. equipment license restrictions.

所以你的第二個問題，首先，你與一些關於美國設備許可證限制的可能性的新聞報導有關。

So you want to understand how does TSMC manage this risk.

所以你想了解台積電是如何管理這個風險的。

And then also as related to part of that, what is our CapEx flexibility for 2020 in case COVID-19 situation or these restrictions?

然後與其中一部分相關的是，在 COVID-19 情況或這些限制的情況下，我們 2020 年的資本支出靈活性是多少？

Is there flexibility in our CapEx?

我們的資本支出是否具有靈活性？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Okay, let me answer the -- your question as much as I can.

好的，讓我盡可能多地回答你的問題。

We are now aware that the -- recent development of U.S. trade rule changes.

我們現在知道，美國貿易規則的最新發展發生了變化。

However, these rule changes have -- is still under draft.

但是，這些規則更改仍在起草中。

And they are -- there are informations, but we know that the final rule is not yet finalized.

他們是——有信息，但我們知道最終規則尚未最終確定。

And after the finalized draft, there will be another 30 days of grace period for the industry to respond.

並且在定稿後，還有30天的寬限期供業界回應。

In general, we share the concerns, all the concerns of U.S. semiconductor communities such as voices from SEMI or from SIA.

總的來說，我們有共同的擔憂，美國半導體社區的所有擔憂，例如來自 SEMI 或來自 SIA 的聲音。

While the draft is not finished, we are -- we have studied various scenarios.

雖然草案尚未完成，但我們已經研究了各種情況。

And yes, there may be some near-term impact.

是的，可能會有一些近期影響。

And we will take -- work with our customer dynamically, and we will take appropriate measures so that to minimize the impact to TSMC.

我們將與我們的客戶動態合作，我們將採取適當的措施，以盡量減少對台積電的影響。

However, for the mid- to long term, we think the underlying megatrend still holds.

然而，從中長期來看，我們認為潛在的大趨勢仍然存在。

And some supply chain will be readjusted, and to balance this out.

而一些供應鏈會重新調整，來平衡這個。

So we will be able to -- still to capture mid- to long-term growth opportunities.

因此，我們將能夠——仍然能夠抓住中長期增長機會。

And therefore, the current long-term CapEx, we do not see, is impacted by this change.

因此，我們認為當前的長期資本支出不會受到這一變化的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer your question, Randy?

這能回答你的問題嗎，蘭迪？

Yes.

是的。

And maybe just to continue, if there's any flexibility, either from this factor if it does go ahead; or if it's more -- would be more on a forward basis.

也許只是繼續，如果有任何靈活性，或者從這個因素來看，如果它繼續進行的話；或者如果它更多 - 將更多地基於前瞻性。

But is your flexibility -- say the COVID-19 doesn't get contained.

但是你的靈活性——比如說 COVID-19 沒有得到控制。

Is largely most of the spending already planned out kind of timed to those megatrends, but it's -- but if you do have flexibility to adjust that or any potential in a downside case.

大部分支出已經計劃好與這些大趨勢同步，但它是 - 但如果你確實有靈活性來調整它或在不利情況下的任何潛力。

So you -- okay.

所以你——好吧。

So Randy is asking, do we -- then for our 2020 CapEx, is there any -- what is our flexibility in case of COVID-19 uncertainty and such?

所以蘭迪問，我們 - 那麼對於我們的 2020 年資本支出，有沒有 - 我們在 COVID-19 不確定性等情況下的靈活性是什麼？

Right.

正確的。

We will remain as flexible as we can as we continue to monitor the virus situation and work very closely with our customers.

在我們繼續監控病毒情況並與客戶密切合作的同時，我們將盡可能保持靈活性。

At the same time, the majority of our CapEx is spent on advanced nodes that drives our growth in the next year and beyond.

與此同時，我們的大部分資本支出都花在了推動我們明年及以後增長的先進節點上。

As we expect the multiyear megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications to drive strong demand for our advanced technologies in the next several years continuing, we will continue to prudently invest for our future growth.

由於我們預計 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年大趨勢將在未來幾年推動對我們先進技術的強勁需求，因此我們將繼續審慎地投資於我們的未來增長。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Wendell.

謝謝你，溫德爾。

The next question is from the line of Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

So could we go through a little bit in terms of how we think about forecasting growth?

那麼，我們能否稍微談談我們如何看待預測增長？

I think given that, if we look at the last 2, 3 times where we've had economic corrections, it seems like the industry has seen meaningful declines in revenues.

我認為，如果我們回顧過去 2、3 次經濟調整，該行業的收入似乎出現了顯著下降。

Now we are looking at largely flattish for semi ex memory.

現在，我們正在尋找 semi ex 內存的基本持平。

So are we expecting that we get a pretty strong rebound into the second half of the year in terms of -- so I just wanted to go through TSMC's process of thinking about overall semiconductor industry growth and since we also expect small inventory correction happening in second half of the year.

那麼我們是否預計我們會在下半年出現相當強勁的反彈 - 所以我只想了解一下台積電對整體半導體行業增長的思考過程，因為我們還預計第二季度會出現小幅庫存修正半年。

And I have a follow-up question as well.

我還有一個後續問題。

Okay.

好的。

Gokul, let me summarize your question.

Gokul，讓我總結一下你的問題。

I think your question is asking, in the past when there's a severe economic correction, the semi industry also sees a large revenue decline, so why is semi ex memory this year kind of flattish?

我想你的問題是在問，過去在經濟嚴重調整的時候，semi行業的收入也有很大的下降，那麼為什麼今年semi ex memory比較平淡？

And how do we explain our full year outlook of mid- to high teens?

我們如何解釋我們對中高青少年的全年展望？

And do we expect a more meaningful inventory correction in the second half of this year?

我們是否預計今年下半年會有更有意義的庫存調整？

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

That's right, yes.

沒錯，是的。

Well, the semiconductor excluding memory, as I said, that the end market in the consumer electronics will decline.

好吧，正如我所說，除了內存之外的半導體，消費電子產品的終端市場將會下降。

However, as -- I also mentioned that because of work from home or those communications created a lot of demand on the server and the wired communications.

但是，正如 - 我還提到，由於在家工作或那些通信對服務器和有線通信產生了大量需求。

So the HPC will be very good, as compared with our forecast in January.

因此，與我們 1 月份的預測相比，HPC 會非常好。

Net-net, so we give kind of the semiconductor industry's growth this year, probably is a low single digit or to be a little bit negative.

Net-net，所以我們給出了今年半導體行業的增長情況，可能是一個低個位數或有點負數。

That's based on what our forecast today.

這是基於我們今天的預測。

And what is the second question?

第二個問題是什麼？

He's asking sort of then do we expect a meaningful inventory correction going into the second half.

他問的是我們是否預計下半年會有有意義的庫存調整。

We cannot forecast so accurately, but...

我們無法預測得如此準確，但...

Let me add something, some color.

讓我添加一些東西，一些顏色。

Now as C.C. just mentioned, based on our current outlook, our second half revenue is somehow flattish or may decline slightly.

現在作為 C.C.剛才提到，根據我們目前的展望，我們下半年的收入在某種程度上持平或可能略有下降。

That really gives you an ideas that the inventory is digesting in the second half of the year as for now, as we can see.

正如我們所看到的，這真的讓你知道今年下半年庫存正在消化。

Okay.

好的。

Gokul, does that -- yes.

Gokul，這樣做——是的。

Go ahead, your second question.

繼續，你的第二個問題。

Yes, that addresses my first question.

是的，這解決了我的第一個問題。

Second question, could you talk a little bit about the shape of the 5-nanometer ramp-up in second half of the year?

第二個問題，你能談談今年下半年 5 納米提升的形狀嗎？

I mean previously, I think, we have talked about this being faster than 7 nano in 2018 and probably around 10% of revenues.

我的意思是，我認為，我們在 2018 年討論過這比 7 納米更快，可能佔收入的 10% 左右。

Are you seeing any changes to that as a result of some of the weakness that we have seen in the consumer electronic vertical?

由於我們在消費電子垂直領域看到的一些弱點，您是否看到任何變化？

Or for 5 nano, we are still expecting a similar kind of ramp as we expected in January.

或者對於 5 納米，我們仍然期待與我們在 1 月份預期的類似的斜坡。

To be sure: We don't expect any change as compared with in January, our forecast.

可以肯定的是：與 1 月份的預測相比，我們預計不會有任何變化。

Today, we still see the tape-out very on schedule, and the ramp-up is also on schedule, although we did see some of the equipment delivery have been delayed a little bit, but we are working with the equipment vendor.

今天，我們仍然看到 tape-out 非常如期，ramp-up 也如期進行，雖然我們確實看到一些設備交付有一點延遲，但我們正在與設備供應商合作。

All in all, we think that 5-nanometer's ramp-up is on track, and we still say that it will contribute about 10% of the total revenue, wafer revenue.

總而言之，我們認為 5 納米的爬坡正在步入正軌，我們仍然說它將貢獻約 10% 的總收入，即晶圓收入。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, C.C.

謝謝你，C.C.

We have the next question from the line of Roland Shu from Citi.

我們有來自花旗的 Roland Shu 的下一個問題。

First, I congratulate for a very good first quarter result.

首先，我祝賀第一季度取得了非常好的結果。

I will have a follow-up of this whole year revenue growth question.

我將對這一整年的收入增長問題進行跟進。

I think now you are looking for this mid- to high-teens percentage point growth for the whole year revenue, so my question is then do you factor in any equipment, material or any kind of ramp-up schedule disruption by -- for this supply chains due to the travel bans.

我想現在你正在尋找全年收入的中高個百分點增長，所以我的問題是你是否考慮了任何設備、材料或任何類型的加速計劃中斷——為此旅行禁令導致的供應鏈。

Okay.

好的。

No, we did not see any disruption from the material supply or any supply chains activity that have been in disruption mode, although I did say that -- because of shelter in home, that some of the tool delivery has been delayed from 2 weeks to about 1 month.

不，我們沒有看到任何材料供應中斷或任何處於中斷模式的供應鏈活動，儘管我確實說過——因為在家裡避難，一些工具的交付已經從 2 週推遲到大約1個月。

However, as I said, we continue to work with tool vendors and minimize the impact on the capacity building.

然而，正如我所說，我們將繼續與工具供應商合作，並將對能力建設的影響降至最低。

So for the whole year, we don't expect it to have a big impact.

因此，對於全年，我們預計不會產生重大影響。

Do you have -- yes.

你有——是的。

Understood, but how about from the equipment start-up point of view?

明白了，但是從設備啟動的角度來看呢？

Because for this shelter-in-home or travel ban, I think equipment vendors probably won't have enough engineer to do the equipment start-up.

因為對於這種居家避難或旅行禁令，我認為設備供應商可能沒有足夠的工程師來進行設備啟動。

Will that affect your situation?

這會影響你的情況嗎？

Well, that has been planned from the outbreak of COVID-19.

好吧，這是從 COVID-19 爆發開始就計劃好的。

We already work with equipment vendor.

我們已經與設備供應商合作。

So they arranged enough engineering resources in Taiwan or all over the world, so we don't worry that portion.

所以他們在台灣或者全世界都安排了足夠的工程資源，所以我們不用擔心那部分。

Okay.

好的。

For my second question, I would like to ask about your capital management.

第二個問題，想問一下你們的資金管理。

I know, I think, in the past you funded all of your CapEx spending from your operating cash flow.

我知道，我認為，過去你的所有資本支出都來自你的經營現金流。

And now you just -- partly fund it by issuance of the corporate bond.

現在你只是 - 通過發行公司債券來部分資助它。

Again, Wendell explained this actually.

再一次，溫德爾實際上解釋了這一點。

We'd like to preserve our cash level -- invest for next growth.

我們希望保持我們的現金水平——為下一個增長進行投資。

So my question is in, first, for this issuance of the corporate bond.

所以我的問題首先是關於這次公司債券的發行。

Is there any upper limit you have, I think, in order to fund your CapEx?

我認為，為了為您的資本支出提供資金，您是否有任何上限？

Well, will you continue to issue this corporate bond?

那麼，你會繼續發行這個公司債券嗎？

Roland, first of all, the -- we expect our operating cash flow to continue to be sufficient to finance our capital expenditure.

羅蘭，首先，我們預計我們的經營現金流將繼續足以為我們的資本支出提供資金。

Secondly, the decision to issue corporate bond was before -- was made before the COVID-19.

其次，發行公司債券的決定是在 COVID-19 之前做出的。

We look at our future expansion plans.

我們看看我們未來的擴張計劃。

We look at the current interest rates, and we decided it's a good timing to issue a low-cost corporate bond just for any uncertainties.

我們查看了當前的利率，並認為現在是發行低成本公司債券以應對任何不確定性的好時機。

Understood.

明白了。

Okay.

好的。

And for your cash dividend, I think -- Wendell, you said that you would like to maintain sustainable dividends in both quarterly and annual basis.

對於你的現金股息，我認為 - 溫德爾，你說過你希望在季度和年度基礎上保持可持續的股息。

So understood.

這麼理解。

I think that your annual basis policy is paying total cash not less than previous year's.

我認為你的年度基礎保單支付的現金總額不低於上一年。

And how about your quarterly cash dividend policy?

您的季度現金分紅政策如何？

Is this like the TWD 2.5 per quarter -- per share per quarter policy to TSMC?

這是否類似於台積電每季度每股 2.5 新台幣的政策？

Okay, Roland.

好的，羅蘭。

So your question on the cash dividend, you say that we will not -- our sustainable cash dividend policy on an annual basis means we will not pay less than TWD 10 in any year going forward.

所以你關於現金股息的問題，你說我們不會 - 我們每年的可持續現金股息政策意味著我們在未來的任何一年都不會支付少於 10 新台幣。

Then your question is, on a quarterly basis, will we pay less than TWD 2.5 on a quarterly basis.

那麼你的問題是，按季度計算，我們會不會每季度支付少於TWD 2.5。

No.

不。

No.

不。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Well, the quarterly cash dividend will be subject to change.

那麼，季度現金股息可能會發生變化。

However, the whole year annual cash dividend have been -- that will be still maintained not less than previous year's, right?

但是，全年的年度現金分紅——那還是會保持不低於上年的吧？

No.

不。

Roland, the quarterly cash dividend will not be lower than the previous quarter.

羅蘭，季度現金分紅不會低於上一季度。

And as a result, you won't have lower annual dividends than the previous year.

因此，您的年度股息不會低於上一年。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

So even though -- so let's say from now we are paying TWD 2.5 per share per quarter.

所以即使 - 讓我們說從現在開始我們每季度支付每股 2.5 新台幣。

So it means that going forward our quarterly cash dividend won't be less than TWD 2.5 going forward, right?

那麼就是說我們每季度的現金分紅都不會低於2.5新台幣，對吧？

Yes, you are correct.

是的，你是對的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Roland.

謝謝你，羅蘭。

Next question is from Bill Lu from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Bill Lu。

Yes.

是的。

My first question is on 5 nanometers.

我的第一個問題是關於 5 納米的。

It is TSMC's first full EUV node and it is now in production.

這是台積電的第一個完整的 EUV 節點，現已投入生產。

So 2-part question.

所以兩部分的問題。

One is I know, this year, it is on track, but if you look at the customer adoptions going to 2021, can you give us some ideas for maybe the number of customers that are going to use 5 nanometers or maybe revenue contribution?

一個是我知道，今年，它步入正軌，但如果你看看到 2021 年的客戶採用情況，你能給我們一些想法，比如將使用 5 納米的客戶數量或收入貢獻嗎？

Secondly, now that we're in production, can you talk about the learnings on 5, so far?

其次，既然我們正在製作中，您能談談到目前為止對 5 的學習嗎？

Specifically, can you talk a little bit about maybe cycle time versus 7 nanometers, that yield ramp; and maybe on the cost side how it compares to 7?

具體來說，你能談談週期時間與 7 納米的關係嗎？也許在成本方面，它與 7 相比如何？

Just because it is the first EUV node.

只因為它是第一個 EUV 節點。

All right.

好的。

You will repeat the question again.

你會再次重複這個問題。

Or I take it...

還是我拿...

Sure.

當然。

Okay.

好的。

So Bill's question is on 5-nanometer and EUV, 2 parts.

所以 Bill 的問題是關於 5 納米和 EUV，兩個部分。

One, he wants to know that we are ramping -- we see a steep ramp in the second half of this year, but what does 5-nanometer look like for 2021 in terms of customer adoption, the number of customers or the revenue percentage contribution in 2021?

第一，他想知道我們正在加速——我們看到今年下半年會有一個陡峭的增長，但 2021 年 5 納米在客戶採用率、客戶數量或收入百分比貢獻方面會是什麼樣子2021年？

That's the first part.

這是第一部分。

And then the second part is can we share some of the learning that we have seen on our 5-nanometer in terms of cycle time yield or costs versus 7-nanometer.

然後第二部分是我們能否分享一些我們在 5 納米上看到的與 7 納米相比在周期時間產量或成本方面的學習。

Well, Bill, let me answer the first part of -- first.

好吧，比爾，讓我先回答第一部分。

This year, as we said, we are going to ramp up, well, steeply and smoothly.

今年，正如我們所說，我們將以陡峭而平穩的方式加速發展。

And how about the 2021?

2021年呢？

Well, continue to ramp up.

嗯，繼續加倉。

That's that I can answer you.

那就是我可以回答你。

So how many customer or how many tape-outs in -- actually the customer come from everywhere.

那麼有多少客戶或多少流片 - 實際上客戶來自世界各地。

I mean that's a mobile phone, HPC related and maybe some of them from the IoT and automotive.

我的意思是那是一部手機，與 HPC 相關，也許其中一些來自物聯網和汽車。

We don't know yet, but today we've got a lot of tape-out from mobile and HPC related.

我們還不知道，但今天我們有很多來自移動和 HPC 相關的流片。

The cycle time, the yield today is quite good.

週期時間，今天的收益率相當不錯。

Actually, it's ahead of our plan.

實際上，它比我們的計劃提前了。

And what is the cost?

成本是多少？

Cost is reasonable.

成本合理。

Of course, we are continuing to work on productivity improvement so that we can share with our customer, but as far as I can know, I can understand, the cost, the cycle time are all very good.

當然，我們正在繼續致力於提高生產力，以便我們可以與客戶分享，但據我所知，我能理解，成本和周期時間都非常好。

That's all I can say.

我只能說這麼多。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have any second question, Bill?

你還有第二個問題嗎，比爾？

Yes.

是的。

The second question is on COVID-19.

第二個問題是關於 COVID-19。

And it looks like the company is doing a really good job of managing it in terms of fab operations, but I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit more about how this might impact your decision-making longer term.

看起來該公司在晶圓廠運營方面做得非常好，但我想知道你是否可以多談談這可能如何影響你的長期決策。

How would you change how you're managing the company given that -- given COVID-19?

鑑於 COVID-19，您將如何改變管理公司的方式？

For example, does this change your view at all in terms of building a fab in the U.S.?

例如，這是否完全改變了您對在美國建造晶圓廠的看法？

I don't think that because of COVID-19 we change our decision-making process where we reduce our efficiency.

我不認為因為 COVID-19，我們改變了我們降低效率的決策過程。

I do believe this is a temporary phenomena and although I did say that we have red and blue teams.

我確實相信這是暫時現象，儘管我確實說過我們有紅隊和藍隊。

I did say that we have practiced some work from home, but I don't anticipate that this one will continue.

我確實說過我們已經在家練習了一些工作，但我預計這不會繼續下去。

So for the long term, just no change.

所以從長遠來看，只是沒有改變。

TSMC will continue to work closely with the customer.

台積電將繼續與客戶緊密合作。

We'll devote our resources into R&D, and we are pursuing the manufacturing excellence.

我們將資源投入研發，我們追求卓越製造。

Affecting the fab, to build a fab in U.S., I'll let Mark to make some comment.

影響晶圓廠，要在美國建晶圓廠，我讓馬克發表意見。

Well, we do the long-term planning always to the interest of TSMC.

那麼，我們做長期規劃總是為了台積電的利益。

And currently, this U.S. fab planning is more to, for the long term, tap global talent for TSMC rather than risk management because we think this COVID-19 is a impact on human being, mankinds, but it's once in a century.

目前，從長遠來看，這個美國晶圓廠計劃更多的是為台積電挖掘全球人才，而不是風險管理，因為我們認為這個 COVID-19 對人類、人類有影響，但它是百年一遇的。

And I think we'll learn to deal with COVID-19 as a global community and while keep our supply chain cost effective and efficient at the same time.

而且我認為我們將學會作為一個全球社區來處理 COVID-19，同時保持我們的供應鏈成本效益和效率。

So that is what I think.

這就是我的想法。

So there's no abrupt decision change because of COVID-19 regarding this fab construction.

因此，關於這個晶圓廠的建設，沒有因為 COVID-19 而突然改變決定。

Does that answer your questions, Bill?

這能回答你的問題嗎，比爾？

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question is from the line of Bruce Lu from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Let me just ask about the 5G smartphone.

我只想問一下 5G 智能手機。

So management mentioned that 5G total -- the total smartphone (inaudible) consumers, but the penetration with 5G remain unchanged, so can you tell us that -- with this COVID-19 world current situation, any product mix shift you used in the revision?

所以管理層提到 5G 總數——智能手機（聽不清）消費者總數，但 5G 的滲透率保持不變，所以你能告訴我們——在 COVID-19 世界現狀下，你在修訂版中使用的任何產品組合轉變？

Or why is that -- high-end 5G phone or low-end smartphones, they decline the same.

或者為什麼會這樣——高端 5G 手機或低端智能手機，它們的下降幅度相同。

Why is the penetration remain unchanged?

為什麼滲透率保持不變？

And in addition, do you see that -- 5G smartphone penetration in different geographies, do you see any changes when you do this revision?

此外，您是否看到 - 不同地區的 5G 智能手機普及率，您在進行此修訂時是否看到任何變化？

Okay.

好的。

Bruce, sorry.

布魯斯，對不起。

Let me repeat your question to make sure we understand.

讓我重複你的問題，以確保我們理解。

Your question is on the 5G smartphone.

您的問題是關於 5G 智能手機的。

As C.C. highlighted, the -- we revised the total shipments down to a high single-digit decline, but why do we still maintain a mid-teens penetration rate for 5G smartphones?

作為 C.C.強調，我們將總出貨量下調至高單位數下降，但為什麼我們仍然保持 5G 智能手機的十幾歲左右的滲透率？

You want to know if we can talk about any product mix shifts that we see in these smartphone, for example, high-end versus mid-end, versus low end; and why our mid-teens has not changed; and also if we can add some detail or color by geography.

您想知道我們是否可以談談我們在這些智能手機中看到的任何產品組合轉變，例如，高端與中端，與低端；以及為什麼我們十幾歲的時候沒有改變；以及我們是否可以按地理位置添加一些細節或顏色。

All right.

好的。

Let me answer the question first.

讓我先回答問題。

We did lower down our expectation or our forecast on the smartphone, the total unit, by high single digit.

我們確實將我們對智能手機（總單位）的期望或預測降低了高個位數。

However, we still see the penetration of the 5G smartphone at the same kind of mid-teens percentage.

然而，我們仍然看到 5G 智能手機的普及率保持在十幾歲左右。

But the number of the 5G smartphone also reduced.

但 5G 智能手機的數量也有所減少。

Because of the same percentage with the total number being reduced, so the 5G phone also reduced.

因為和總數減少的比例相同，所以5G手機也減少了。

That's one thing.

那是一回事。

And what is the second question?

第二個問題是什麼？

And then Bruce wants to know, do we have any detail on between high, mid, low end or by geography...

然後 Bruce 想知道，我們是否有關於高端、中端、低端或地理位置的任何詳細信息……

That's too much of the details.

細節太多了。

I cannot release the information, but let me say that 5G smartphone has been very, very popular, And we expect that one to grow.

我不能發布信息，但我可以說 5G 智能手機非常非常受歡迎，我們預計它會增長。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have -- yes.

你有——是的。

I'll try to follow up this because, for the first quarter, we definitely see that, expensive or higher-priced smartphones, the sell-through is much weaker than the mid-end and low-end one.

我將嘗試跟進這一點，因為在第一季度，我們肯定會看到，昂貴或價格更高的智能手機的銷售率遠低於中端和低端智能手機。

So that's why we are surprised that the penetration rate for the smartphones of 5G model remain unchanged.

這就是為什麼我們對 5G 型號智能手機的普及率保持不變感到驚訝。

Do you have any rationale to support the forecast?

您有任何理由支持該預測嗎？

Well, there is a section named, called 5G, right?

好吧，有一個名為5G的部分，對嗎？

And all I can say is that it's going to be very popular.

我只能說它會很受歡迎。

I see.

我懂了。

Okay.

好的。

The second thing is that we have a lot of investor asking that, because of current situation, the end consumer, the demand is facing some correction.

第二件事是我們有很多投資者問，由於目前的情況，最終消費者的需求正面臨一些調整。

Why is that TSMC, as a foundry supplier for everyone, did not see a move for orders cut as of now.

為什麼台積電作為大家的晶圓代工供應商，到現在還沒有看到減單的動靜。

I mean, do -- why is that to cause this kind of big time lag between the real end demand situation and their production?

我的意思是，為什麼會導致實際最終需求情況與其生產之間存在這種巨大的時間差？

Okay.

好的。

Let me just repeat your question, Bruce.

讓我重複你的問題，布魯斯。

Your question is when you -- investors are asking.

你的問題是你——投資者問的時候。

When you look at the end consumer, you can see a very big correction, but why is TSMC not seeing any types of order cuts?

當你看終端消費者時，你會看到一個非常大的修正，但為什麼台積電沒有看到任何類型的訂單削減？

Why is there a -- the deviation between what we are saying and the end market?

為什麼我們所說的與終端市場之間存在偏差？

For the big time lag.

對於大的時差。

Because as management mentioned earlier, management also expect or prepared some orders cut in the second half.

因為正如管理層剛才提到的，管理層也預計或準備在下半年削減一些訂單。

So the time lag between the production control and the consumer demand correction is means (inaudible).

因此，生產控制和消費者需求修正之間的時間差是手段（聽不清）。

Why is that caused this delay?

為什麼會造成這種延遲？

First, you are talking about TSMC's observation from the end market to TSMC's business.

首先，你說的是台積電從終端市場到台積電業務的觀察。

TSMC has a leadership in the technology.

台積電在技術上處於領先地位。

And we are ramping up the 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer, and that have been very popular and widely used by all the customer.

我們正在提升 5 納米和 7 納米，這已經非常受歡迎並被所有客戶廣泛使用。

And not every foundry offer this kind of a technology coverage, right?

並不是每個代工廠都提供這種技術覆蓋，對吧？

And so we are not -- we -- in our technology and our ramping up, we are not seeing any big effect yet.

因此，我們沒有——我們——在我們的技術和我們的加速發展中，我們還沒有看到任何大的影響。

So that will be some delay, the end market to TSMC's business, but we do see that the end market is dropping, so we also expect some demand from TSMC's customer will be adjusted.

所以終端市場對台積電的業務會有一些延遲，但我們確實看到終端市場正在下降，所以我們也預計台積電客戶的一些需求會有所調整。

However, in this COVID-19's impact, we do believe that TSMC will be less affected as compared with other foundries.

但是，在 COVID-19 的影響中，我們確實相信與其他代工廠相比，台積電受到的影響較小。

So do you expect orders cut in the second half with more of the legacy node instead of our leading node that's why TSMC can be better than competitors?

那麼，您是否預計下半年訂單會減少，更多的是傳統節點而不是我們的領先節點，這就是台積電比競爭對手更好的原因？

I would like to say yes, but let's wait and see.

我想說是的，但讓我們拭目以待。

The next question is from the line of Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

下一個問題來自 CLSA 的 Sebastian Hou。

First one, I'd like to follow on the CapEx.

第一個，我想關注資本支出。

So historically when TSMC, if I remember it right.

所以歷史上當台積電，如果我沒記錯的話。

When TSMC -- every time we have TSMC lower revenue guidance within a year, CapEx will be adjusted lower accordingly.

當台積電——每次我們在一年內降低台積電的收入指引時，資本支出都會相應下調。

Even if just a 5% adjustment on the revenue, you also adjust CapEx, sometimes even bigger magnitude.

即使只是對收入進行 5% 的調整，您也會調整資本支出，有時幅度甚至更大。

This time, in this guidance the revenue adjustment is as large as 8% or high single digit, but CapEx remained the same.

這一次，在本指南中，收入調整幅度高達 8% 或高個位數，但資本支出保持不變。

So my question is, first, is it because that TSMC (inaudible) comfortable in the pipeline through the end of this year and to 2021 that you -- triggered you to spend no matter what?

所以我的問題是，首先，是不是因為台積電（聽不清）在今年年底和 2021 年的管道中很舒服，你 - 觸發你無論如何都要花錢？

Or TSMC started leading on some, let's say, limitation or given that some equipment supplier or maybe one particular equipment supplier has very long lead time and have a lot of power, to some extent, and we are also fighting either competitors, starting to fight equipment availability.

或者台積電開始在某些方面領先，比方說，限製或考慮到某些設備供應商或某個特定設備供應商的交貨時間很長並且在某種程度上擁有很大的力量，我們也在與任何一個競爭對手競爭，開始戰鬥設備可用性。

So we don't want to cancel that at this point.

所以我們現在不想取消它。

Which one is more true?

哪個更真實？

Okay, Sebastian.

好的，塞巴斯蒂安。

Let me summarize your question to make sure we understand.

讓我總結一下您的問題，以確保我們理解。

Your question is on our CapEx.

你的問題是關於我們的資本支出。

And your question is that, while we have our full year outlook, we have adjusted versus what we said in January, we are reaffirming our CapEx guidance of January.

你的問題是，雖然我們有全年展望，但我們已經根據 1 月份的說法進行了調整，我們重申 1 月份的資本支出指導。

So you want to know why are we not adjusting our CapEx or because our full year outlook has been adjusted.

所以您想知道為什麼我們不調整我們的資本支出，或者因為我們調整了全年展望。

And you propose 2 reasons.

你提出了兩個理由。

Is it because, a, we have confirmed customer demand profile that goes into 2021 and beyond so that's why we continue to invest?

是因為，a，我們已經確認了 2021 年及以後的客戶需求狀況，所以這就是我們繼續投資的原因嗎？

Or is it, b, that certain of our equipment suppliers may have a very strong bargaining power so we have no choice, so to speak, but to continue to spend because our equipment supplier has a strong position?

或者，b，我們的某些設備供應商可能具有很強的議價能力，所以我們別無選擇，可以說，只能繼續支出，因為我們的設備供應商有很強的地位？

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

Sebastian, as we mentioned earlier, that we are looking at this megatrend, multiple year of megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications.

塞巴斯蒂安，正如我們之前提到的，我們正在關注這個大趨勢，即 5G 相關和 HPC 應用的多年大趨勢。

And this trend continues.

而且這種趨勢還在繼續。

The demand for our advanced technology will continue.

對我們先進技術的需求將繼續存在。

Most of the CapEx that we spend this year is for the growth of next year and beyond.

我們今年花費的大部分資本支出都用於明年及以後的增長。

And that is the reason that we are reaffirming our CapEx numbers at this moment.

這就是我們現在重申我們的資本支出數字的原因。

To a certain extent, it may tend to go with your number one options, option a.

在某種程度上，它可能傾向於與您的第一個選項，選項 a 一起使用。

I think that's quite clear.

我認為這很清楚。

Do you have...

你有沒有...

Okay.

好的。

Yes, okay.

是的，好的。

So my second question is I think, last quarter, the company gave us some guidance about the 4 major platforms, HPC, mobile growing 20%-plus; IoT, auto growing mid-teens.

所以我的第二個問題是，我認為，上個季度，公司給了我們一些關於 4 個主要平台的指導，HPC、移動增長超過 20%；物聯網，自動成長為十幾歲。

Can you give us an update now?

你現在能給我們更新嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Sebastian, you're -- you want to know what is our updated forecast for the 4 growth platforms for 2020.

所以塞巴斯蒂安，你想知道我們對 2020 年 4 個增長平台的最新預測是什麼。

For the whole year?

全年？

Yes, for this year.

是的，今年。

Okay.

好的。

Smartphone and HPC platform growth will be slightly higher than the corporate average.

智能手機和 HPC 平台的增長將略高於企業平均水平。

IoT will be similar, and automotive will be below corporate average.

物聯網將是相似的，汽車將低於企業平均水平。

That -- those are all in U.S. dollar terms.

那 - 這些都是以美元計算的。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer your question, Sebastian -- yes.

這是否回答了您的問題，塞巴斯蒂安——是的。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

You have answered it, but I have to follow on this one, if I may, that the smartphone is still above the corporate average.

您已經回答了這個問題，但如果可以的話，我必須跟進這個問題，即智能手機仍然高於公司平均水平。

So that means this market will still grow mid- to high teens.

所以這意味著這個市場仍將增長中高青少年。

And so I think with -- the TSMC forecasts the smartphone shipment to decline high single digit, so this year.

所以我認為 - 台積電預測今年智能手機出貨量將下降高個位數。

So this means that the content imply that content increase for TSMC is, I had is like 20%-plus this year in total.

所以這意味著內容暗示台積電的內容增加是，我今年總共增加了 20% 以上。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

You have a very good calculation, and you are right.

你的計算很好，你是對的。

The next question is from Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So I have 2 questions.

所以我有兩個問題。

One is more short term; and another a bit the long term, maybe even 1- or 2-year later.

一種是短期的；另一個是長期的，甚至可能是 1 或 2 年後。

So first of all, I compared your guidance versus the previous forecast.

所以首先，我將你的指導與之前的預測進行了比較。

It seems like order cuts reflects through to your third quarter revenues.

訂單減少似乎反映在您第三季度的收入中。

So do you think, this year, the third quarter revenues is going to be sub seasonal?

那麼您認為今年第三季度的收入會出現淡季嗎？

And I mean in terms of Q-on-Q growth.

我的意思是就 Q-on-Q 增長而言。

And second one is 7-nanometer remains pretty tight throughout the year...

第二個是 7 納米，全年都非常緊張……

Charlie, we cannot hear you clearly.

查理，我們聽不清楚。

Can you please move closer to the phone line and start -- we couldn't hear your first question.

能否請你靠近電話線並開始——我們聽不到你的第一個問題。

Please repeat it.

請重複一遍。

Okay.

好的。

I actually use Airpod Pro.

我實際上使用Airpod Pro。

So let me try again.

所以讓我再試一次。

So first question is about your third quarter revenue.

所以第一個問題是關於你的第三季度收入。

Do you expect the growth is going to be sub seasonal?

您預計增長會是次季節性的嗎？

And do you expect some smartphone order cuts.

您是否期望一些智能手機訂單減少。

Do you still see 7-nanometer capacity is in shortage in 3Q?

三季度7納米產能是否仍處於緊缺狀態？

Okay.

好的。

So Charlie is asking a short-term question on third quarter.

所以查理在第三季度問了一個短期問題。

Do we expect our revenue to be -- third quarter revenue to be sub seasonal?

我們是否預計我們的收入 - 第三季度收入將是次季節性的？

Do we expect 7-nanometer to remain full for third quarter?

我們是否預計 7 納米在第三季度保持滿載？

Charlie, we're not giving out the guidance for the third quarter yet, and it's still early, especially under this uncertain environment.

查理，我們還沒有給出第三季度的指導，現在還早，尤其是在這種不確定的環境下。

We will have a clearer picture in July and share with you.

我們將在 7 月有更清晰的圖景與您分享。

Okay.

好的。

What's your second question, Charlie?

你的第二個問題是什麼，查理？

Okay.

好的。

Yes, it's really linked to that.

是的，這確實與此有關。

I guess investors, also I want to know your internal scenario analysis about COVID-19 impact.

我想投資者，我也想知道你對 COVID-19 影響的內部情景分析。

I think in your opening remarks you mentioned, the virus to peak in June, but there seems to be some signs of a second-wave outbreak globally.

我想你在開場白中提到，病毒將在 6 月達到頂峰，但似乎有一些跡象表明全球會爆發第二波疫情。

So in that scenario, what will be the -- TSMC's growth in 2020?

那麼在這種情況下，台積電在 2020 年的增長會如何？

And by the way, the second question is very simple, on 3-nanometer.

順便說一下，第二個問題很簡單，關於 3 納米。

Do you expect the customer number and demand in 3-nanometer plan can compare to you when they will have 5-nanometer.

您是否期望 3 納米計劃中的客戶數量和需求可以與您相比，當他們有 5 納米時。

So 2 questions are those.

所以有兩個問題。

Okay.

好的。

That's a little more than 2, but okay.

這比 2 多一點，但沒關係。

Let me just repeat your 2 questions.

讓我重複你的兩個問題。

One, you want to know our internal scenario for COVID-19.

第一，您想了解我們針對 COVID-19 的內部情況。

We had said and C.C. had said that stabilized by June, what if it's worse, what happens to our forecast.

我們說過，C.C.曾說過到 6 月穩定下來，如果情況更糟，我們的預測會怎樣。

That's number one.

這是第一。

And then number two, for 3-nanometer, what is our customer -- number of customers and the demand profile as compared to 5-.

然後是第二，對於 3 納米，我們的客戶是什麼——與 5 相比，客戶數量和需求情況。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer the second question first under the 3-nanometer, all right.

我先在3納米下回答第二個問題，好吧。

3-nanometer, as I said, we are -- our technology development is on track and we are working with customers to further define the specs and then define the technologies.

3 納米，正如我所說，我們是——我們的技術開發步入正軌，我們正在與客戶合作，進一步定義規格，然後定義技術。

So -- as which one, I cannot say, but there is -- again, I can share with you is in mobile phone and HPC-related applications.

所以 - 至於是哪一個，我不能說，但有 - 我可以再次與您分享是在手機和 HPC 相關應用程序中。

Now the first one, we are talking about the impact of COVID-19 and we are giving our forecast based on the COVID-19 will be stabilized, the impact or the spread over will be stabilizing in June.

現在是第一個，我們正在談論 COVID-19 的影響，我們基於 COVID-19 的預測將穩定下來，影響或擴散將在 6 月穩定下來。

What happened if it's longer than that?

如果比那更長會發生什麼？

I don't know.

我不知道。

I mean that's -- if it's longer than that, the macro economy will be much worse than we thought and definitely will affect the semiconductor industry, will affect the foundry industry and certainly also will affect the TSMC.

我的意思是——如果比那更長，宏觀經濟將比我們想像的要糟糕得多，肯定會影響半導體行業，會影響晶圓代工行業，當然也會影響台積電。

But we don't know yet.

但我們還不知道。

Let's be hopeful that all the human being will be safe and healthy and everything stabilizing in June.

讓我們希望六月全人類都安全健康，一切都穩定下來。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, C.C.

謝謝你，C.C.

The next question is from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes.

是的。

Want to go back to your comment about gross margin trend in the second half of 2020.

想回到你對2020年下半年毛利率趨勢的評論。

You highlighted the fact that the mix would have adverse impact by as much as several point.

您強調了這樣一個事實，即混合會產生多達幾個點的不利影響。

Want to get your view of your flexibility in case coronavirus impact would be more than just 1 quarter.

想要了解您的靈活性，以防冠狀病毒的影響超過 1 個季度。

What can you do to better manage utilization rate and therefore minimize the gross margin impact to only a couple of percentage points?

您可以做些什麼來更好地管理利用率，從而將毛利率影響降至僅幾個百分點？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Okay.

好的。

Mehdi, let me repeat your question.

邁赫迪，讓我重複你的問題。

You're asking about our second half gross margin outlook.

你問的是我們下半年的毛利率前景。

When -- our CFO has already highlighted the 2 factors impacting our second half gross margin.

什麼時候——我們的首席財務官已經強調了影響我們下半年毛利率的兩個因素。

You want to know what if COVID-19 worsens, what measures can we further take to better manage -- or can we do things to better manage our utilization rate to better support or help our gross margin.

您想知道如果 COVID-19 惡化，我們可以進一步採取哪些措施來更好地管理——或者我們可以做些什麼來更好地管理我們的利用率，以更好地支持或幫助我們的毛利率。

Okay.

好的。

Generally speaking, if the COVID-19 impact prolongs, we will expect a lower utilization.

一般來說，如果 COVID-19 的影響持續下去，我們預計利用率會降低。

At the same time, what we have done before, and we may be able to do the same, is to prebuild some of the products that our customer said they will be looking for to receive.

與此同時，我們之前做過的，我們可能也能做的，是預製我們的客戶表示他們希望收到的一些產品。

That's one way of minimizing the impact.

這是將影響降到最低的一種方法。

Do you have a second question, Mehdi?

你還有第二個問題嗎，邁赫迪？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Just as a follow-up, if you were to prebuild for your customer and customers' own demand that weaken, then perhaps customers' orders beyond second half, looking into the first half of next year, could be adversely impacted.

作為後續行動，如果你要為你的客戶和客戶自己的需求減弱而預先構建，那麼也許下半年以後客戶的訂單，展望明年上半年，可能會受到不利影響。

So maybe the adverse impact of a more prolonged coronavirus would have a gross margin downside into next year, into 2021, due to the fact that you're prebuilding for customers?

因此，由於您正在為客戶進行預建，因此更長時間的冠狀病毒的不利影響可能會導致明年到 2021 年的毛利率下降？

Okay.

好的。

So Mehdi, your question is a follow-up to Wendell.

所以 Mehdi，你的問題是 Wendell 的後續問題。

If we prebuild, but the customer demand continues to weaken or worsen, then won't that create more issues for TSMC in 2021.

如果我們預建，但客戶需求繼續減弱或惡化，那麼這不會在 2021 年給台積電帶來更多問題。

When we prebuild, we are pretty sure that the customers will take it.

當我們預構建時，我們非常確定客戶會接受它。

Yes, the demand would be there.

是的，需求會在那裡。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The next question is from Brett Simpson from Arete Research.

下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

I just had a question on your second half implied outlook.

我剛剛有一個關於你下半年隱含前景的問題。

I think it's for down 3% revenue just backing out what you said about Q2 and what you delivered in Q1.

我認為這是為了減少 3% 的收入，只是支持你所說的關於第二季度的內容和你在第一季度交付的內容。

Now you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you've seen no major order cuts as yet.

現在你在準備好的評論中提到你還沒有看到重大訂單削減。

But if I just step back and look at your Q1, TSMC just posted smartphone sales growth up 50% year-on-year in smartphones when smartphone end demand is negative.

但如果我退後一步看你的第一季度，台積電剛剛公佈智能手機銷量同比增長 50%，而智能手機終端需求為負。

Your China business in Q1 is up almost 80% year-on-year.

您在第一季度的中國業務同比增長近 80%。

And the biggest customer in China, Huawei, has posted inventories up 75% in 2019.

中國最大的客戶華為公佈的 2019 年庫存增長了 75%。

So just looking at all this, maybe fabless customers are not building inventory per se, but it's clear that the end customer, the OEMs, seem to be significantly stockpiling and they're not cutting orders yet.

所以看看這一切，也許無晶圓廠客戶本身並沒有增加庫存，但很明顯，最終客戶，即 OEM，似乎正在大量囤貨，而且他們還沒有削減訂單。

So given all this, I'm just wondering how big you think the stockpiling is at present further up the food chain?

所以考慮到這一切，我只是想知道你認為目前食物鏈上游的庫存量有多大？

And why it won't lead to a more material decline in your second half outlook than you're suggesting?

為什麼它不會導致你下半年的前景比你建議的更嚴重？

Okay, Brett.

好的，布雷特。

So your question is basically when -- you're saying that if you look at our first quarter business, there's a large increase year-on-year in our smartphone, in our revenue from China and increased at certain -- Huawei has seen an increase in their inventory year-on-year as well.

所以你的問題基本上是什麼時候 - 你是說如果你看一下我們第一季度的業務，我們的智能手機，我們來自中國的收入同比大幅增長，並且在一定程度上有所增長 - 華為已經看到了他們的庫存也同比增加。

So your question is, how does -- to reconcile this with TSMC's business outlook.

所以你的問題是，如何將其與台積電的業務前景相協調。

But let me remind you, last year, 2019 first quarter, if you're looking first quarter year-on-year, where -- our business was impacted by photoresist, so it's not an apples-to-apples.

但讓我提醒你，去年，2019 年第一季度，如果你看第一季度同比，我們的業務受到光刻膠的影響，所以這不是蘋果對蘋果。

But your question.

但是你的問題。

Right.

正確的。

So basically, the first quarter of this year, we see inventory increase in our fabless customers and we expect that to continue to rise because of this COVID-19 impact.

所以基本上，今年第一季度，我們看到無晶圓廠客戶的庫存增加，我們預計由於 COVID-19 的影響，庫存會繼續增加。

It will start to digest in the second half.

下半場開始消化。

Does that answer your question, Brett?

這是否回答了你的問題，布雷特？

Well, just to understand better how you're thinking about this because we haven't seen an inventory buildup like this at the OEM level for some years, and I just wanted to understand how big you think this is at the moment at the end customer?

好吧，只是為了更好地了解您是如何考慮這個問題的，因為我們已經有幾年沒有在 OEM 級別看到過這樣的庫存積累了，我只是想了解您認為這到底有多大顧客？

We -- this is a very uncertain time.

我們——這是一個非常不確定的時期。

We don't want to quantify the numbers at this moment, but it is building and it's above the last year's year-end level.

我們現在不想量化這些數字，但它正在建設並且高於去年年底的水平。

The next question is from Frank Lee from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Frank Lee。

So I had 2 questions.

所以我有兩個問題。

My first question is more on just a bit of housekeeping related to your previous guidance you gave.

我的第一個問題更多是關於與您之前提供的指導相關的一些內務管理。

I think back in January, you had guided for foundry growth to be up 17% excluding Samsung's captive supply.

我回想起 1 月份，您曾指導晶圓代工增長 17%，不包括三星的專屬供應。

But you just gave a new guidance for the year.

但是你剛剛給出了今年的新指導。

Is that an apple-to-apple?

這是蘋果對蘋果嗎？

Are you including Samsung or not including Samsung?

你包括三星還是不包括三星？

That including Samsung is apple-to-apples comparison.

包括三星在內就是同類比較。

Okay.

好的。

So none -- okay.

所以沒有——好吧。

And then the second question I had, you've also talked a bit -- quite a bit on this call about the work from home driving your HPC business, I guess, stronger than -- continue to drive that business.

然後是我的第二個問題，你也談了一些——在這次電話會議上談了很多關於在家工作推動你的 HPC 業務，我想，比繼續推動該業務更強大。

But outside of HPC, have you seen -- well, I guess maybe this is related as well, what about just overall if you extend it to the overall PC market, are you seeing some signs of stronger than expected?

但是在 HPC 之外，你有沒有看到 - 好吧，我想這可能也是相關的，如果你將它擴展到整個 PC 市場，你是否看到一些比預期更強大的跡象？

And could we see potentially stronger-than-expected PC market for this year as a result of this trend?

由於這一趨勢，我們能否看到今年 PC 市場可能強於預期？

We saw the demand from tablets has been increasing.

我們看到平板電腦的需求一直在增加。

That's what we saw.

這就是我們所看到的。

And the PC, probably flattish and the gaming console increased.

而個人電腦，可能是扁平化的，而遊戲機則增加了。

That's so far today that we observed.

這是我們今天觀察到的。

Okay.

好的。

And also just to -- as C.C. said, both our forecast for foundry in January and today are including Samsung.

而且只是為了 - 作為 C.C.說，我們對一月份和今天代工的預測都包括三星。

So it's apples-to-apples, just to make that clear.

所以這是蘋果對蘋果，只是為了說明這一點。

Next is from KekYee Teoh.

接下來是來自 KekYee Teoh。

Just like to understand a bit more about your virus assumptions there.

只是想更多地了解那裡的病毒假設。

You say that you are assuming the virus will stabilize in June, can you translate the wireless assumption stabilized in June into handset demand.

你說你假設病毒將在 6 月穩定下來，你能否將無線假設在 6 月穩定下來轉化為手機需求。

How much are you looking at handset demand for 2Q and 3Q?

您對第二季度和第三季度的手機需求有多大看法？

Okay.

好的。

So your question is under our assumptions for COVID-19, what is our assumption for the handset demand in 2Q and 3Q.

所以你的問題是在我們對 COVID-19 的假設下，我們對第二季度和第三季度手機需求的假設是什麼。

We give you a whole year's assumption, but I cannot be more specific.

我們給你一整年的假設，但我不能更具體。

In 2Q, let's say the seasonality -- every year's seasonality, the smartphone actually decreased, all right, and start to bounce back in third quarter and the fourth quarter.

在第二季度，比如說季節性——每年的季節性，智能手機實際上都在下降，好吧，然後在第三季度和第四季度開始反彈。

But how many units, I cannot to be so specific to share with you.

但是有多少個單位，我不能那麼具體的跟大家分享。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer?

那有答案嗎？

Do you have a second question?

你還有第二個問題嗎？

The foundry content increase impact is mainly throughout the year or more towards the second half?

晶圓代工量增加影響主要是全年還是下半年？

That's the last question.

這是最後一個問題。

He's asking the silicon content increase for 5G.

他要求增加 5G 的矽含量。

Is it throughout the year or is it mainly in the second half of this year?

是全年還是主要集中在今年下半年？

It's in the 5G for that I can say.

我可以說它在 5G 中。

Yes.

是的。

So throughout the year.

所以一年四季。

Okay.

好的。

Let's move on to the next caller.

讓我們轉到下一個來電者。

I believe it's a follow-up question from Gokul at JPMorgan, please.

我相信這是來自摩根大通的 Gokul 的後續問題，請問。

So first of all, could you talk -- I mean, just maybe stepping away from COVID-19, hopefully, it end soon.

所以首先，你能不能談談——我的意思是，也許只是遠離 COVID-19，希望它很快結束。

So in the past downturns, we've seen meaningful IDM outsourcing happen.

因此，在過去的經濟低迷時期，我們看到有意義的 IDM 外包發生了。

I think if I think about GFC, we had multiple current customers of TSMC giving up bleeding edge and move to TSMC.

我認為，如果我考慮 GFC，我們有多個台積電的現有客戶放棄了前沿技術並轉向了台積電。

How should we think about -- or how is TSMC thinking about the potential for further IDM outsourcing over the next 2 to 3 years as we get through this process, which will potentially put some pressure on some of the sort of the potential IDMs as well?

我們應該如何考慮 - 或者台積電如何考慮未來 2 到 3 年進一步 IDM 外包的可能性，因為我們完成了這個過程，這也可能會給某些潛在的 IDM 帶來一些壓力？

And a related question is, I think Mark has answered in the past about potential M&A opportunities.

一個相關的問題是，我認為馬克過去已經回答過潛在的併購機會。

Do we consider overseas fab acquisition as a right strategy for TSMC to -- if it comes with a meaningful customer attached to it?

我們是否認為海外晶圓廠收購是台積電的正確戰略 - 如果它附帶一個有意義的客戶？

I know that TSMC has not really done any meaningful fab acquisitions for a long time, I think probably 2000 was the last big meaningful one.

我知道台積電很長一段時間都沒有真正進行過任何有意義的晶圓廠收購，我認為可能是 2000 年是最後一次有意義的大收購。

But just wanted to understand how the management team thinks about fab acquisition as a potential strategy?

但只是想了解管理團隊如何將晶圓廠收購視為一項潛在戰略？

Or any thoughts around that?

或者有什麼想法嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So Gokul, you have 2 questions.

Gokul，你有兩個問題。

One is on the IDM outsourcing and then do we see the further potential for further IDM outsourcing under this environment in the next few years.

一個是關於 IDM 外包，然後我們是否看到未來幾年在這種環境下進一步 IDM 外包的進一步潛力。

And the second part of your question refers to our potential M&A.

你問題的第二部分是指我們潛在的併購。

And your question is that in terms of an overseas fab acquisition, will we consider an overseas fab acquisition if meaningful customer business were to be attached to it.

你的問題是，在收購海外晶圓廠方面，如果要附加有意義的客戶業務，我們是否會考慮收購海外晶圓廠。

Well, let me answer the IDM outsourcing question first.

好吧，我先回答IDM外包的問題。

The current downturn might further accelerate the outsourcing for IDMs, but we don't know yet.

當前的經濟低迷可能會進一步加速 IDM 的外包，但我們還不知道。

However, in the long term, IDM outsourcing will continue as the foundry model has proven to be an economic win-win situation for both foundry and its customer.

然而，從長遠來看，IDM 外包將繼續存在，因為晶圓代工模式已被證明是晶圓代工及其客戶的經濟雙贏局面。

That, as we said, we expect this one continue to happen.

正如我們所說，我們希望這一事件繼續發生。

This is a long-term strategy.

這是一項長期戰略。

Yes.

是的。

Let me answer the second question about the overseas fab acquisition.

我來回答第二個關於收購海外晶圓廠的問題。

We do have continued scouting about the possible fab, but those are mostly only mature fabs, and we don't exclude the possibility, but it all depends on the investment and return.

我們確實在繼續尋找可能的晶圓廠，但那些大多只是成熟的晶圓廠，我們不排除這種可能性，但這一切都取決於投資和回報。

If it economically makes sense, then we go ahead.

如果它在經濟上有意義，那麼我們就繼續。

But it's also -- it's very challenging for the mature fab to be, again, financially viable so far we see.

但它也是 - 到目前為止，對於成熟的晶圓廠來說，再次在財務上可行是非常具有挑戰性的。

So we still continue evaluating.

所以我們還是繼續評估。

But overseas fab acquisition is unlikely to be a leading fab because our leading fab is a technology with very sophisticated complexity.

但是收購海外晶圓廠不太可能是龍頭晶圓廠，因為我們龍頭晶圓廠是技術非常複雜的。

And also, there is none of the fab can perform like a TSMC's fab with -- it's really a service body, technical service body.

而且，沒有一家晶圓廠可以像台積電的晶圓廠那樣運作——它實際上是一個服務機構，技術服務機構。

Instead of the structured facility or equipment, our fab really is a technical service body.

我們的工廠不是結構化的設施或設備，而是真正的技術服務機構。

That has to be built.

那必須建造。

And therefore, that challenged us to build -- to acquire a leading-edge fab overseas.

因此，這對我們提出了挑戰——要在海外建立一個領先的晶圓廠。

Okay.

好的。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

Next is from Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.

接下來是摩根士丹利的陳查理。

So these are some questions that I want to get whether management has few thoughts.

所以這些是我想得到的一些問題，管理層是否有很少的想法。

For example, that any plan to build a fab in the U.S. so that is my first question.

例如，任何在美國建造晶圓廠的計劃，這是我的第一個問題。

I also want to get clarification because the recent research obtained, China fab like SMIC is gaining share and I can see that makes some sense because China is pursuing localization.

我還想澄清一下，因為最近的研究表明，像中芯國際這樣的中國晶圓廠正在獲得份額，我認為這是有道理的，因為中國正在追求本地化。

So what's the management forecast for your local market share in China and what's your strategy for -- to protect your China market share.

那麼管理層對你們在中國的本地市場份額的預測是什麼，你們的戰略是什麼——保護你們在中國的市場份額。

Okay.

好的。

So you have 2 questions, Charlie.

所以你有兩個問題，查理。

One is what is our plans for a fab in the U.S. -- to build a fab in the U.S.?

一是我們在美國建廠的計劃是什麼——在美國建廠？

And then, secondly, you're asking about China that SMIC is gaining market share.

然後，其次，你問的是中國，中芯國際正在獲得市場份額。

There's increased localization.

本地化程度有所提高。

So what is TSMC's share outlook for China and strategy to protect ourselves.

那麼台積電在中國的股票前景和保護自己的策略是什麼。

Okay.

好的。

Let me answer the first question regarding U.S. fab.

先回答關於美國晶圓廠的第一個問題。

We are now actively evaluating the U.S. fab plan.

我們現在正在積極評估美國工廠計劃。

And -- but as I told the investor before, there is a cost gap, which is hard to accept at this point.

而且——但正如我之前告訴投資者的那樣，存在成本差距，目前很難接受。

Of course, we have -- we are doing a lot of things to reduce that cost gap.

當然，我們已經 - 我們正在做很多事情來縮小成本差距。

One of the -- there are 2 obstacle currently is -- under actively evaluating is if we do a U.S. fab, it will have to be a leading-edge fab or at least close to leading-edge fab.

其中一個——目前有兩個障礙——正在積極評估中，如果我們在美國建造一座晶圓廠，它必須是一個領先的晶圓廠，或者至少接近領先的晶圓廠。

And the supply chain for the leading-edge fab, at this point, it appears that we need to also establish at the same time.

而前沿晶圓廠的供應鏈，在這一點上，我們似乎也需要同時建立起來。

And currently, we are surveying our supply chain partners, whether they will be able to go along so that the quality of the material to support the leading-edge fab can be cost-effective in U.S.

目前，我們正在調查我們的供應鏈合作夥伴，看他們是否能夠同意，以便支持尖端晶圓廠的材料質量在美國具有成本效益。

And secondly, of course, as I planning -- said earlier, this fab has to be an engineering service body.

其次，當然，正如我之前計劃的那樣，這個晶圓廠必須是一個工程服務機構。

It is -- in Taiwan, all the fab are very highly technical people.

它是——在台灣，所有的晶圓廠都是技術含量很高的人。

In the fab, all master degree and above.

在晶圓廠，都是碩士及以上學歷。

And we try to duplicate that in the U.S., it takes a lot of planning and organization to be able to enable such a fab.

我們試圖在美國複製這一點，需要大量的計劃和組織才能啟用這樣的工廠。

So -- but they are -- as I said, there are opportunities for us in there.

所以——但他們是——正如我所說，我們在那裡有機會。

We tried -- hopefully, we can better tap the global talent for TSMC for the long term, expanding a new site in U.S.

我們嘗試過 - 希望我們能夠更好地長期挖掘台積電的全球人才，在美國擴展新站點

All right, Jeff, would you repeat the second question?

好吧，傑夫，你能重複第二個問題嗎？

Sure.

當然。

The second question is that how do we view the competition in the market in China?

第二個問題，我們如何看待中國市場的競爭？

Charlie points out that he believes SMIC is gaining share and there's increasing trend of localization.

查理指出，他相信中芯國際正在獲得份額，並且本地化趨勢越來越大。

What is TSMC strategy?

什麼是台積電戰略？

Okay.

好的。

I don't think that the SMIC is gaining share, to answer your question first.

我不認為中芯國際正在獲得份額，先回答你的問題。

TSMC has been very competitive.

台積電一直很有競爭力。

In everywhere, we are -- everybody's foundry.

在任何地方，我們都是——每個人的鑄造廠。

In every location, we offer the best technology, best service.

在每個地點，我們都提供最好的技術和最好的服務。

We're working with customers closely.

我們正在與客戶密切合作。

So we are pretty successful in gaining market share rather than just losing the market share, let me say that.

所以我們在獲得市場份額方面相當成功，而不是僅僅失去市場份額，讓我這麼說。

And specifically, for China's foundry, we're also very competitive because of a lot of China customers have been working with TSMC.

具體來說，對於中國的代工廠，我們也非常有競爭力，因為很多中國客戶一直在與台積電合作。

I know that SMIC has been very aggressive, but so far, we are competing very well.

我知道中芯國際一直非常積極，但到目前為止，我們的競爭非常好。

That's all I can say.

我只能說這麼多。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Operator, I believe -- thank you, Charlie.

接線員，我相信——謝謝你，查理。

Operator, let's move on to the last question from Sebastian at CLSA.

接線員，讓我們轉到里昂證券塞巴斯蒂安的最後一個問題。

So I have 2 follow-up.

所以我有 2 個跟進。

First one, I just want to double check that I hear you correctly.

第一個，我只是想仔細檢查一下我是否聽錯了。

I think C.C. already mentioned that we have observed the high numbers of tapeout on N5 versus N7 at the same stage.

我認為 C.C.已經提到我們在同一階段觀察到 N5 和 N7 上的大量流片。

Is that right?

那正確嗎？

That's right.

那就對了。

Okay.

好的。

So if my note is correct, then in the year 1 manufacturing, the year 1 mass production for 7, you have 30-plus tapeouts for 7 and in year 2 you have 80-plus and you're down to like 100-something.

因此，如果我的筆記是正確的，那麼在第 1 年的製造中，第 1 年批量生產 7 個，你有 30 多個 tapeout 7 個，在第 2 年你有 80 個以上，你下降到 100 多個。

So I think this year is year 1 for 5-.

所以我認為今年是 5- 的第一年。

So we can say that you have 30-plus for 5-nanometer tapeout at this point.

所以我們可以說此時您有 30 多個 5 納米流片。

Well, I'm not willing to release the actual number.

好吧，我不願意公佈實際數字。

But all I can say is now in N5, we have customer from -- smartphone customer from HPC-related area, okay?

但我現在只能說在 N5 中，我們有來自 HPC 相關領域的智能手機客戶，好嗎？

And the activity, actually we saw more tapeouts as compared with the same period of N7 because the N5 actually is complicated, and I would believe that customer will take more time to work with TSMC as early as possible.

而活動，其實我們看到的tapeout比同期的N7要多，因為N5其實很複雜，我相信客戶會花更多的時間與台積電儘早合作。

That's what they are taking.

這就是他們正在接受的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Do you expect N5 to be potentially bigger than N7 and in terms of capacity?

在容量方面，您是否預計 N5 可能比 N7 更大？

Yes, certainly, we expect that.

是的，當然，我們希望如此。

Okay.

好的。

On capacity-wise, not revenue, capacity.

在容量方面，而不是收入，容量。

Oh, on the capacity-wise, we'll say no comment right now.

哦，在容量方面，我們現在不予置評。

I'm going to say it's mostly 3 years out?

我要說的是大部分時間都是 3 年？

We don't comment on the capacity by nodes, Sebastian.

塞巴斯蒂安，我們不評論節點的容量。

But as C.C. said, N5 would be a very big node.

但作為 C.C.說起來，N5會是一個非常大的節點。

Do you have a second question?

你還有第二個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Second question is I remember most of the time, I think in the past few months as well, when we or the media ask about -- ask TSMC questions if there are like U.S. potential further sanction on Huawei and China, I think the management side -- I think TSMC, however, is -- most of the time, your answer is that there is not official and you don't want to answer any hypothetical questions.

第二個問題是我大部分時間都記得，我想在過去幾個月裡，當我們或媒體詢問 - 問台積電問題時，美國是否可能對華為和中國實施進一步製裁，我認為管理方面-- 然而，我認為台積電是 -- 大多數時候，你的回答是沒有官方的，你不想回答任何假設性的問題。

But I feel like -- I think this time TSMC, the company is addressing the questions very clearly although there is no official announcement yet and there's no official answer yet.

但我覺得——我認為這一次台積電公司正在非常清楚地解決這些問題，儘管還沒有官方公告，也沒有官方答复。

So am I interpreting that right, it seems like the risk or possibility of this potential sanction is higher or it indicate to something else?

那麼我的解釋是否正確，似乎這種潛在製裁的風險或可能性更高，或者它表明其他什麼？

Okay.

好的。

Sebastian, let me just make sure we understand your question correctly.

塞巴斯蒂安，讓我確保我們正確理解你的問題。

So your question is on the potential rule changes from the U.S. that reading news reports in the past that TSMC has always said we don't comment on hypothetical, but you see today maybe our comments -- you're asking if our comments today reflect a change in the tone or the view even though nothing -- no official rule change has been announced?

所以你的問題是關於美國的潛在規則變化，過去閱讀新聞報導台積電一直說我們不對假設發表評論，但你今天看到的可能是我們的評論——你問的是我們今天的評論是否反映了語氣或觀點的改變，即使什麼都沒有——沒有宣布正式的規則改變？

Well, yes, there's no official rules yet announced.

嗯，是的，目前還沒有官方規則公佈。

But just let you know, the U.S. semiconductor community societies wrote multiple letters to the White House as well as the Commerce Department urging this rule not to be changed.

但請注意，美國半導體社區協會已多次致信白宮和商務部，敦促不要改變這一規定。

So we do sense there is an urgency from the industry that having that rule change will hurt the U.S. semiconductor community, and we share the same feeling.

因此，我們確實感覺到業界有一種緊迫感，即改變規則會傷害美國半導體社區，我們也有同樣的感覺。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

This concludes our Q&A session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意會議的重播將在 4 小時後提供。

The transcript will be available in 24 hours from now, both of which will be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

成績單將在 24 小時後提供，兩者均可通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 獲得。

So thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope everyone continues to stay healthy and safe, and hope -- we hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望每個人都繼續保持健康和安全，並希望 - 我們希望您下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and please have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good bye.

再見。