台積電 ADR (TSM) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(foreign language) Welcome to TSMC's Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference and Conference Call.

（外語）歡迎參加台積電2019年第二季度財報電話會議。

This is Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Senior Director of Corporate Communications and your host for today.

我是台積電企業傳播高級總監 Elizabeth Sun，也是今天的主持人。

Today's event is webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

今天的活動通過台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播。

If you are joining us through the conference call, your dialing lines are in listen-only mode.

如果您通過電話會議加入我們，您的撥號線路將處於只聽模式。

As this conference is being viewed by investors around the world, we will conduct this event in English only.

由於世界各地的投資者都在觀看本次會議，因此我們將僅以英語進行本次活動。

The format for today's event will be as follows.

今天的活動形式如下。

First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2019 followed by our guidance for the third quarter.

首先，台積電高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士將總結我們在 2019 年第二季度的運營情況，然後是我們對第三季度的指導。

Afterwards, Ms. Ho and TSMC's CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages.

隨後，何女士與台積電總裁C.C.魏，將共同提供公司的關鍵信息。

Then TSMC's Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session where all our executives on stage including TSMC's Deputy CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will entertain your questions.

隨後台積電董事長劉曉波博士將主持問答環節，台積電副首席財務官黃文德先生等台積電所有在台高管將回答您的問題。

For those participants on the call, if you do not yet have a copy of today's press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

對於電話會議的參與者，如果您還沒有今天的新聞稿副本，您可以從台積電的網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's conference presentation.

另請下載與今天的會議演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

As usual, I would like to remind everyone that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港通知。

And now I would like to turn the microphone to TSMC's CFO, Ms. Lora Ho, for the summary of operations and quarter -- current quarter guidance.

現在，我想將麥克風轉給台積電的首席財務官 Lora Ho 女士，以了解運營和季度的總結——當前季度的指導。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us this afternoon.

大家下午好，感謝你們今天下午加入我們。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter and followed by the guidance of the third quarter.

我的演講將從第二季度的財務亮點開始，然後是第三季度的指導。

Our second quarter revenue increased 10.2% quarter-over-quarter as we already passed the bottom of the cycle of our business and began to see demand increases.

我們第二季度的收入環比增長了 10.2%，因為我們已經度過了業務週期的底部並開始看到需求增加。

Gross margin increased by 1.7 percentage points sequentially to 43% mainly due to the absence of photoresist defect material incident and a slightly more favorable foreign exchange rate.

毛利率環比增長 1.7 個百分點至 43%，主要是由於沒有光刻膠缺陷材料事件和稍微有利的外匯匯率。

Total operating expenses represented 11.2% of net revenue, lower than 11.9% in the first quarter.

總運營費用占淨收入的 11.2%，低於第一季度的 11.9%。

Operating margin increased by 2.3 percentage points sequentially to 31.7%.

營業利潤率環比增長 2.3 個百分點至 31.7%。

Overall, our second quarter's EPS was $2.57, and ROE was 16.2%.

總體而言，我們第二季度的 EPS 為 2.57 美元，ROE 為 16.2%。

Now let's take a look at revenue by technology.

現在讓我們來看看技術收入。

7-nanometer process technology accounted for 21% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, 10-nanometer was 3%, and 16-nanometer was 23%.

第二季度7納米工藝技術佔晶圓收入的21%，10納米為3%，16納米為23%。

Advanced technologies, which are defined as 16-nanometer and below, accounted for 47% of wafer revenue, up from 42% in the first quarter.

定義為 16 納米及以下的先進技術佔晶圓收入的 47%，高於第一季度的 42%。

Now let's talk about the revenue contribution by platform.

現在讓我們談談平台的收入貢獻。

Smartphone increased 5% quarter-over-quarter to accounting for 45% of our second quarter revenue.

智能手機環比增長 5%，占我們第二季度收入的 45%。

HPC increased 23% to accounting for 32%.

HPC 增長 23% 至 32%。

IoT increased 15% to accounting for 8%.

物聯網增長了 15% 至 8%。

Automotive increased 3% to accounting for 5%.

汽車增長3%至5%。

Digital consumer electronics and others went down slightly, accounting for [6%] and 4% (corrected by company after the call) of our wafer revenue.

數字消費電子產品和其他產品略有下降，占我們晶圓收入的 [6%] 和 4%（由公司在電話會議後更正）。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 765 billion, an increase of TWD 4 billion from the last quarter.

我們在第二季度結束時的現金和有價證券為 7650 億新台幣，比上一季度增加了 40 億新台幣。

On the liability side, current liabilities increased by 220 -- TWD 244 billion as we accrued about TWD 259 billion for 2018 and for first quarter 2019.

在負債方面，流動負債增加了 220 - 2440 億新台幣，因為我們在 2018 年和 2019 年第一季度累積了約 2590 億新台幣。

2018 cash dividend of TWD 8 per share will be paid today.

2018年現金紅利每股新台幣8元，今日派發。

And the first quarter 2019 dividend of TWD 2 per share will be paid out in October.

2019 年第一季度每股新台幣 2 的股息將於 10 月派發。

On financial ratios, accounts receivables turnover days decreased 7 days to 42 days.

財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數減少 7 天至 42 天。

Days of inventory decreased 3 days to 76 days primarily due to lower days in work-in-progress inventory and finished goods, both of which resulting from higher shipments out of inventories built in first quarter '19.

庫存天數減少 3 天至 76 天，主要是由於在製品庫存和製成品的天數減少，這兩者都是由於 19 年第一季度庫存出貨量增加所致。

Now let me make a few comments on cash flow and CapEx.

現在讓我對現金流和資本支出發表一些評論。

During the second quarter, we generated about TWD 118 billion cash from operations and spent TWD 116 million in capital expenditure.

在第二季度，我們從運營中產生了約 1,180 億新台幣的現金，並花費了 1.16 億新台幣的資本支出。

As a result, we generated free cash flow of TWD 1.4 billion, and our overall cash balance increased TWD 4 billion to TWD 650 billion at the end of the quarter.

結果，我們產生了 14 億新台幣的自由現金流，我們的整體現金餘額在本季度末增加了 40 億新台幣至 6500 億新台幣。

In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditure was USD 3.75 billion.

以美元計算，我們第二季度的資本支出為 37.5 億美元。

I have finished my financial summary.

我已經完成了我的財務摘要。

Now let's turn to third quarter guidance.

現在讓我們轉向第三季度的指導。

Based on the current business outlook, we expect third quarter revenue to be between USD 9.1 billion and USD 9.2 billion, which is an 18% sequential increase at the midpoint.

根據目前的業務前景，我們預計第三季度收入將在 91 億美元至 92 億美元之間，中點環比增長 18%。

Based on exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 31.0, gross margin is expected to be between 46% and 48%.

基於 1 美元兌 31.0 新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計在 46% 至 48% 之間。

Operating margin is expected to be between 35% and 37%.

營業利潤率預計在 35% 至 37% 之間。

This concludes my financial presentation.

我的財務報告到此結束。

Let me follow by making a few comments about profitability, CapEx and the cash dividend.

接下來讓我對盈利能力、資本支出和現金股息發表一些評論。

First, about profitability.

首先，關於盈利能力。

Let me make some comments on our second quarter and third quarter and our overall profitability outlook.

讓我對我們的第二季度和第三季度以及我們的整體盈利前景發表一些評論。

Our second quarter '19 gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points sequentially mainly due to the absence of the photoresist material incident from first quarter and a slightly more favorable foreign exchange rate.

我們 2019 年第二季度的毛利率環比提高了 1.7 個百分點，這主要是由於第一季度沒有發生光刻膠材料事件以及匯率略微有利。

The reason second quarter revenue is slightly above the high end of our guidance but gross margin is at the low end is because the pace of cost improvement at N7 did not meet our plan in second quarter.

第二季度收入略高於我們指導的高端但毛利率處於低端的原因是因為 N7 的成本改善速度沒有達到我們第二季度的計劃。

But we expect costs to gradually improve towards the plan starting from the third quarter.

但我們預計從第三季度開始，成本將朝著計劃逐步改善。

We have just guided third quarter '19 gross margin to improve by 4 percentage points sequentially at the midpoint mainly as we expect a higher level of overall capacity utilization.

我們剛剛指導 19 年第三季度毛利率在中點環比提高 4 個百分點，主要是因為我們預計整體產能利用率會更高。

Our gross margin in first half '19 was primarily impacted by a low capacity utilization rate.

我們 19 年上半年的毛利率主要受到低產能利用率的影響。

But as our business and utilization rate improves in the second half of this year, we believe about 50% is still a good target for our gross margin going forward.

但隨著我們的業務和利用率在今年下半年有所改善，我們認為 50% 左右仍然是我們未來毛利率的一個很好的目標。

Now regarding 2019 CapEx planning.

現在關於 2019 年資本支出計劃。

At the end -- at the beginning of this year, we have guided our 2019 CapEx budget to be between USD 10 billion and USD 11 billion.

最後——在今年年初，我們將 2019 年的資本支出預算控制在 100 億美元至 110 億美元之間。

However, over the last 3 months, we have seen an acceleration in the worldwide 5G development.

然而，在過去 3 個月中，我們看到全球 5G 發展加速。

We believe this will lead to an increase in demand for our 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies beyond the level we forecasted 3 months ago.

我們相信這將導致對我們 5 納米和 7 納米技術的需求增加，超過我們 3 個月前的預測水平。

We are, therefore, working closely with our customers on the most effective capacity planning for our N5 and N7.

因此，我們正在與我們的客戶密切合作，為我們的 N5 和 N7 制定最有效的容量規劃。

We expect our 2019 CapEx is likely to exceed the high end of our guidance range.

我們預計 2019 年的資本支出可能會超過我們指導範圍的高端。

We are currently evaluating our 2019 CapEx plan and expect to provide you a more detailed update during our October earnings conference.

我們目前正在評估我們的 2019 年資本支出計劃，並希望在 10 月的財報會議上為您提供更詳細的更新。

The last comment is about the cash dividend distribution.

最後一條評論是關於現金分紅的。

We have communicated our dividend policy earlier this year.

今年早些時候，我們已經傳達了我們的股息政策。

We will have sustainable cash dividend per share on both an annual and a quarterly basis.

我們將在年度和季度的基礎上獲得可持續的每股現金股息。

In addition, as our free cash flow increases, we will distribute about 70% of our free cash flow as cash dividend.

此外，隨著我們自由現金流的增加，我們將分配約70%的自由現金流作為現金股息。

TSMC's AGM in June approved the Board's approval of TWD 8 cash dividend per share and full year -- for full year 2018 and the revision of the Article of Incorporation to adapt quarterly dividends.

台積電 6 月的年度股東大會批准董事會批准 2018 年全年每股和全年新台幣 8 現金股息以及修訂公司章程以適應季度股息。

The Board then approved TWD 2 per share dividend for the first quarter 2019 which will be distributed in October 2019.

董事會隨後批准了 2019 年第一季度每股新台幣 2 的股息，該股息將於 2019 年 10 月派發。

Therefore, TSMC's shareholder will receive a total of TWD 10 cash dividend per share this year.

因此，台積電股東今年將獲得每股10新台幣的現金股息。

That also means shareholder will receive at least TWD 10 per share cash dividend for 2020.

這也意味著股東將在 2020 年獲得每股至少 10 新台幣的現金股息。

Going forward, TSMC has set the payment months for the quarterly dividend as January, April, July and October of each year.

展望未來，台積電已將季度股息的支付月份設定為每年的一月、四月、七月和十月。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

Now I would like to turn to C.C. Wei for his comments.

現在我想求助於 C.C.韋先生的意見。

Thank you, Lora.

謝謝你，洛拉。

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

下午好，女士們，先生們。

Let me start with the near-term demand and inventory.

讓我從近期的需求和庫存開始。

We conclude our second quarter with revenue of TWD 241 billion or USD 7.75 billion, slightly above our guidance due to a higher demand from HPC and IoT applications as compared to the time when we gave guidance.

我們第二季度的收入為 2410 億新台幣或 77.5 億美元，略高於我們的指導，因為與我們給出指導時相比，HPC 和物聯網應用的需求更高。

Although our business continues to be impacted by the softer overall global economic condition, customer inventory management and high-end mobile product seasonality, we have also passed the bottom of the cycle of our business and began to see demand increases.

儘管我們的業務繼續受到全球整體經濟狀況疲軟、客戶庫存管理和高端移動產品季節性的影響，但我們也已經度過了業務週期的底部，並開始看到需求增加。

Moving into third quarter this year.

今年進入第三季度。

TSMC's business will be driven by new product launches of premium smartphones, the acceleration of 5G development and the increasing adoption of our industry-leading 7-nanometer node by high-performance computing applications.

台積電的業務將受到高端智能手機新產品發布、5G 發展加速以及高性能計算應用越來越多地採用我們行業領先的 7 納米節點的推動。

Now let's talk about the inventory.

現在讓我們談談庫存。

Our fabless customers' overall inventory is being gradually digested throughout second quarter.

我們的無晶圓廠客戶的整體庫存正在整個第二季度逐漸消化。

We expect it to reduce to several days above seasonal level exiting the second quarter, leading to an improved inventory environment for the second half of this year.

我們預計它會在第二季度結束後比季節性水平減少幾天，從而導致今年下半年的庫存環境有所改善。

Although a soft global economic condition and trade uncertainties remain, we expect our business to be much stronger in the second half as compared with the first half of this year due to the strong demand for our industry-leading 7-nanometer technology solutions.

儘管全球經濟疲軟和貿易不確定性依然存在，但由於對我們行業領先的 7 納米技術解決方案的強勁需求，我們預計下半年的業務將比今年上半年強得多。

The progress of our advanced technologies is well on track, and we are very confident in our technology leadership.

我們的先進技術進展順利，我們對我們的技術領先地位充滿信心。

Over the last 3 months, we have seen an acceleration in the worldwide 5G development.

在過去的 3 個月裡，我們看到全球 5G 發展加速。

This would speed up the introduction and deployment of 5G network and smartphones in several major markets around the world.

這將加快 5G 網絡和智能手機在全球幾個主要市場的引入和部署。

We expect this to lead to an increase in demand for our 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer technologies.

我們預計這將導致對我們的 5 納米和 7 納米技術的需求增加。

And we are working closely with our customers to carefully plan out capacity to meet their demand, as our CFO just said.

正如我們的首席財務官剛剛所說，我們正在與客戶密切合作，仔細規劃產能以滿足他們的需求。

Now I will talk about the N5 status and N3 development.

現在我將談談N5的現狀和N3的發展。

Our N5 technology has already entered risk production in first quarter.

我們的N5技術已經在第一季度進入風險生產階段。

Customer takeout activity are underway, and volume production is scheduled in first half of year 2020 with 80% logic density gain, 8-0 percent, and 15% speed compared with the 7-nanometer, we believe our N5 technology is the most advanced in the foundry industry with the best density, performance, power and transistor technology.

客戶外賣活動正在進行中，計劃於 2020 年上半年量產，與 7 納米相比，邏輯密度增益為 80%，速度為 8-0%，速度為 15%，我們相信我們的 N5 技術是最先進的具有最佳密度、性能、功率和晶體管技術的代工行業。

Our 5-nanometer technology solution will be the foundry industry's most advanced solution until our 3-nanometer arrives.

在我們的 3 納米問世之前，我們的 5 納米技術解決方案將成為鑄造行業最先進的解決方案。

We are confident that our 5-nanometer will have a strong ramp and be a large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

我們有信心，我們的 5 納米將有一個強勁的增長，並成為台積電的一個大而持久的節點。

On N3, the technology development progress is going well, and we are already engaging with the early customers on the technology definition.

在 N3 上，技術開發進展順利，我們已經在與早期客戶就技術定義進行接觸。

We expect our 3-nanometer technology to further extend our leadership position well into the future.

我們希望我們的 3 納米技術能夠在未來進一步擴大我們的領先地位。

Now I will talk about the ramp-up of N7, N7+ and the progress of N6.

下面我來談談N7、N7+的升級和N6的進展。

We have seen very strong demand at N7 across a wide spectrum of products from mobile, HPC and IoT applications.

我們看到 N7 對來自移動、HPC 和物聯網應用的各種產品的需求非常強勁。

Meanwhile, our N7+, which adapts EUV for a few critical layers, has already entered volume production.

同時，我們的 N7+ 將 EUV 應用於幾個關鍵層，已經進入量產階段。

We expect our customers' end products using N7+ will be in the market in high volume this quarter.

我們預計我們客戶使用 N7+ 的終端產品將在本季度大量投放市場。

We expect strong demand to continue into next year.

我們預計強勁的需求將持續到明年。

N6 provide a clear migration path for second-wave N7 products as its design rules are 100% compatible with N7 while providing 18% logic density gain and performance-to-cost advantage.

N6 為第二波 N7 產品提供了清晰的遷移路徑，因為其設計規則與 N7 100% 兼容，同時提供 18% 的邏輯密度增益和性能成本比優勢。

N6 will use more EUV layer than N7+.

N6 將使用比 N7+ 更多的 EUV 層。

N6 risk production is scheduled to begin in first quarter year 2020 with customer product tapeouts in second half 2020.

N6 風險生產計劃於 2020 年第一季度開始，客戶產品流片將於 2020 年下半年開始。

The volume production starts before the end of year 2020.

2020年底前開始量產。

We reaffirm N7, N7+ will contribute more than 25% of our wafer revenue in this year.

我們重申 N7、N7+ 將在今年貢獻超過 25% 的晶圓收入。

And we expect even higher percentage in next year on N7, N7+ and N6 because development of 5G accelerates and demand from HPC, mobile and other applications continue to grow.

我們預計明年 N7、N7+ 和 N6 的百分比會更高，因為 5G 的發展加速以及 HPC、移動和其他應用程序的需求持續增長。

Now let me talk about TSMC's competitiveness.

現在讓我談談台積電的競爭力。

The foundry business model has proven to be the most efficient model in the semiconductor industry.

代工商業模式已被證明是半導體行業最有效的模式。

As a pure-play dedicated foundry, we collaborate and work closely together with our customers to unleash their innovation to the market and enable their success.

作為一家純粹的專業代工廠，我們與客戶密切合作和合作，將他們的創新推向市場並幫助他們取得成功。

We do not have any internal products, and we do not compete with customers.

我們沒有任何內部產品，我們不與客戶競爭。

Within foundry, TSMC competes on technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customers' trust.

在代工廠內部，台積電在技術領先、製造卓越和客戶信任方面展開競爭。

Our trinity of strengths enables us to be everyone's foundry.

我們的三位一體優勢使我們能夠成為每個人的代工廠。

We have the most useful and robust technology offering across both advanced and specialty technologies.

我們擁有涵蓋先進技術和專業技術的最有用和最強大的技術產品。

We work diligently to protect our customers' technology, extend our leadership and accelerate our technology differentiation.

我們努力保護客戶的技術，擴大我們的領導地位並加速我們的技術差異化。

We are the world's largest and trusted provider of logic capacity with an excellent manufacturing track record.

我們是全球最大且值得信賴的邏輯容量供應商，擁有出色的製造記錄。

We will continue to unleash innovations for all our customers for years to come.

未來幾年，我們將繼續為所有客戶釋放創新。

Finally, I'll talk about our CFO transition.

最後，我將談談我們的 CFO 過渡。

After serving very well as TSMC's CFO for the past 16 years, Lora Ho will take on new challenges ahead of Europe and Asian sales.

在過去 16 年出色地擔任台積電 CFO 之後，Lora Ho 將在歐洲和亞洲銷售之前迎接新的挑戰。

Subject to the Board of Directors' approval, Wendell Huang will become TSMC's new CFO effective September 1. Wendell has been with TSMC for 20 years and has served as TSMC's Deputy CFO and Head of Finance Division.

經董事會批准，Wendell Huang 將於 9 月 1 日起擔任台積電新任首席財務官。Wendell 在台積電工作 20 年，曾擔任台積電副首席財務官兼財務部負責人。

He brings a wealth of experience and knowledge of TSMC, and I am confident he will continue the strong tradition of TSMC's finance organization.

他帶來了台積電豐富的經驗和知識，我相信他將延續台積電財務組織的強大傳統。

I'm excited about both appointments and look forward to continue to work closely with both Lora and Wendell in their new roles.

我對這兩項任命都感到很興奮，並期待繼續與 Lora 和 Wendell 就他們的新角色密切合作。

Thank you for your attention.

感謝您的關注。

This concludes our prepared statements.

我們準備好的陳述到此結束。

Before we begin the Q&A session, I would like to remind everybody to limit your questions to 2 at a time so that all the participants have an opportunity to ask their questions.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我想提醒大家一次將您的問題限制在 2 個，以便所有參與者都有機會提出他們的問題。

Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call.

將在現場和電話中提出問題。

Should you wish to raise your questions in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question.

如果您想用中文提出問題，我會在管理層回答您的問題之前將其翻譯成英文。

For those of you on the call, if you would like to ask some questions, (Operator Instructions).

對於那些正在通話的人，如果您想問一些問題，（操作員說明）。

We'll start the questions first from Crédit Suisse's Randy Abrams.

我們將首先從瑞士信貸的蘭迪艾布拉姆斯開始提問。

Maybe since it's Lora's last time and we also have 2 CFOs, so I'll start with the financial questions.

也許因為這是 Lora 的最後一次，而且我們還有 2 位首席財務官，所以我將從財務問題開始。

On the gross margin, if you can elaborate just a bit more on what were the triggers for the slower progress on gross margin, as it seems uncharacteristic for TSMC at least recently to have a bit of impact on process ramp-up.

在毛利率方面，如果你能詳細說明毛利率進展緩慢的觸發因素是什麼，因為台積電至少最近對工藝提升產生了一些影響似乎並不典型。

And then looking forward on the 50%, if you still expect that target toward the end of this year and if looking into next year, as you ramp up 5 and normally have a 2- to 3-point impact, if you still expect 50% reasonable for next year?

然後展望 50%，如果你仍然預計到今年年底的目標，如果展望明年，當你增加 5 時，通常會產生 2 到 3 點的影響，如果你仍然預計 50明年合理嗎？

When we ramp up any new technologies, we have a series of productivity, cost improvement activities on the plan.

當我們提升任何新技術時，我們計劃進行一系列生產力和成本改進活動。

7-nanometer is the same.

7納米也是一樣。

7-nanometer now is very, very busy.

7納米現在非常非常繁忙。

There's a lot of new tape-out.

有很多新的流片。

So in second quarter, we have set a goal, but we did not achieve the goal.

所以在第二季度，我們設定了目標，但我們沒有實現目標。

That is why, as I've explained earlier, the margin fall into the low end of the guidance.

這就是為什麼，正如我之前解釋的那樣，利潤率處於指導的低端。

As I said earlier, we have -- back on track to gradually improve productivity and with the volume continue to come in third and fourth quarter.

正如我之前所說，我們已經回到了逐步提高生產力的軌道上，並且第三和第四季度的產量將繼續增加。

And we are still confident we can achieve our cost reduction and productivity target.

我們仍然有信心實現我們降低成本和提高生產力的目標。

As to the 50% gross margin, I think for the whole year, I think the main reason is the lower utilization particularly in the first half of the year.

至於50%的毛利率，我認為全年，我認為主要原因是利用率較低，尤其是上半年。

As I've said, if we can maintain the high utilizations, which we believe we can, the 50% is still a good target going forward.

正如我所說，如果我們能夠保持高利用率，我們相信我們可以，那麼 50% 仍然是一個很好的目標。

Okay.

好的。

And that implies also fourth quarter, fourth quarter of this year?

這也意味著今年第四季度，第四季度？

That is certainly my hope.

這當然是我的希望。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay.

好的。

Second question, I actually wanted to ask a bit more on the sales growth outlook you've put out.

第二個問題，我實際上想問更多關於您提出的銷售增長前景的問題。

And maybe the first starting point is you originally guided the full year would be growing back in April, and so I was wondering if you can update that expectation.

也許第一個起點是您最初指導全年將在 4 月增長，所以我想知道您是否可以更新該預期。

And then to dig into the growth, if you could talk a bit about -- in that guidance for high-teens growth for the different segments, the HPC, auto, IoT, smartphones, how you're seeing each of those segments for second -- for third quarter and second half and if you're also seeing cryptocurrency come back.

然後深入研究增長，如果你能談談 - 在不同細分市場的青少年增長指南中，HPC、汽車、物聯網、智能手機，你如何看待這些細分市場中的每一個- 第三季度和下半年，如果你也看到加密貨幣回來了。

Well, for the first part, I think C.C. can answer, yes.

好吧，對於第一部分，我認為 C.C.可以回答，可以。

Okay.

好的。

What is the first part?

第一部分是什麼？

Wrong question.

錯誤的問題。

First part was if you still think you can grow for this year?

第一部分是你是否仍然認為你今年可以成長？

For the whole year?

一整年？

For the whole year.

全年。

Let me give you some kind of a taste.

讓我給你嚐嚐。

Right now, the uncertainties really become in these days really hard to stay, so I cannot give you kind of, again, a very firm number of what kind of a growth we are going to get, but I can assure you that the fourth quarter would be better than the third quarter.

現在，這些天的不確定性真的變得很難留下來，所以我不能再一次給你一個非常確定的數字，我們將獲得什麼樣的增長，但我可以向你保證，第四季度會比第三季度好。

That's all I can say.

這就是我能說的。

Okay.

好的。

How much, I don't know yet, so you can calculate for that.

多少，我還不知道，所以你可以計算一下。

So the key is fourth quarter we think will be better than third quarter.

所以關鍵是我們認為第四季度會好於第三季度。

So I think the second part maybe, Lora, can you answer?

所以我想第二部分可能，Lora，你能回答嗎？

Randy, did you ask about the by-platform growth for third quarter?

Randy，你問過第三季度的跨平台增長嗎？

Yes.

是的。

If -- actually, if you can just -- the third quarter and then an update on the full year for the platforms?

如果——實際上，如果你可以——第三季度，然後是平台全年的更新？

Okay.

好的。

Third quarter, as I just guided, there's a sequential 18% growth, we are seeing very strong growth on smartphone.

第三季度，正如我剛剛指導的那樣，連續增長了 18%，我們看到智能手機的增長非常強勁。

And also, actually, all platforms are going to grow in third quarter across the board with smartphone growing the most.

而且，實際上，所有平台都將在第三季度全面增長，其中智能手機增長最快。

And also, HPC is still growing very nicely.

而且，HPC 的發展仍然非常好。

IoT is very strong although it's very small as a basis.

物聯網非常強大，儘管它的基礎非常小。

And we also see automotive coming up to grow.

我們還看到汽車正在增長。

It was kind of low in the first half of the year, okay?

今年上半年有點低，好嗎？

In terms of the whole year, we expect smartphone will grow single digit year-over-year.

就全年而言，我們預計智能手機將同比增長個位數。

HPC, if exclude cryptocurrency, we will also see single-digit growth.

HPC，如果排除加密貨幣，我們也將看到個位數的增長。

But with the cryptocurrency, it's a declining number.

但是對於加密貨幣，這是一個下降的數字。

IoT will grow more than double digit, very nicely.

物聯網將增長超過兩位數，非常好。

Automotive will be a down platform for the year, okay?

汽車將成為今年的下降平台，好嗎？

So that is the segment analysis.

這就是細分分析。

Just the final clarification.

只是最後的澄清。

For cryptocurrency, if you're seeing -- like how much of that activity is coming back?

對於加密貨幣，如果你看到——比如有多少活動回來了？

And do you expect to target that and then if you have the new capacity on 7 tied to that?

您是否希望以此為目標，然後如果您在 7 上擁有與此相關的新容量？

On that one, C.C., will you answer that, yes?

關於那個，C.C.，你會回答這個問題，是嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The cryptocurrency, recently, the pricing is up, and so we start to see the demand improving.

加密貨幣最近價格上漲，因此我們開始看到需求有所改善。

We support the cryptocurrency by available capacities.

我們通過可用容量支持加密貨幣。

Next question will be also coming from the floor from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題也將來自摩根士丹利的 Charlie Chan。

My first question is about your full year outlook.

我的第一個問題是關於你的全年展望。

I think there's the uncertainty about the U.S.-China tension.

我認為美中緊張局勢存在不確定性。

Huawei's still in the entity list, right?

華為還在實體名單裡吧？

So when you plan the full year or even fourth quarter, do you discount that risk?

因此，當您計劃全年甚至第四季度時，您是否會忽略這種風險？

How much do you discount that risk from Huawei?

你對華為的風險打了多少折扣？

And also, I think that there's a given intuition.

而且，我認為有一種給定的直覺。

I mean the biggest impact to the industry could be the 5G infrastructure from the U.S.-China tension.

我的意思是，對行業的最大影響可能是美中緊張局勢帶來的 5G 基礎設施。

But you have seen that infrastructure demand is accelerating, right?

但是您已經看到基礎設施需求正在加速，對嗎？

So can you give us some sense of what you see differently about the infrastructure markets?

那麼，您能否讓我們了解一下您對基礎設施市場的不同看法？

All right.

好的。

The effect of Huawei being the entity list and impact to TSMC, we do see some impact but not direct business between Huawei and TSMC -- actually HiSilicon and TSMC because we are -- we already announced that we continue our shipping practice.

華為作為實體清單的影響和對台積電的影響，我們確實看到了華為和台積電之間的一些影響，但不是直接的業務——實際上是海思和台積電，因為我們是——我們已經宣布我們將繼續我們的運輸業務。

Because we follow the law, so we continue to ship.

因為我們遵守法律，所以我們繼續發貨。

The infrastructure -- actually, the 5G's development actually accelerate, and we see a very strong demand from that.

基礎設施——實際上，5G 的發展實際上正在加速，我們看到了非常強勁的需求。

And as I said in my statement, in many countries, that they speed up the 5G deployment, and we see the increase of the demand at our leading-edge 7-nanometer.

正如我在聲明中所說，在許多國家，他們加快了 5G 部署，我們看到對我們領先的 7 納米的需求在增加。

Yes.

是的。

So yes, it seems that, for example, being in the entity list, Huawei still has some restriction to update, for example, Google's mobile service.

所以是的，看起來，例如，在實體列表中，華為仍然有一些限制更新，例如，谷歌的移動服務。

And that has impact their overseas smartphone demand.

這影響了他們的海外智能手機需求。

And according to your breakdown, the smartphone business still can see single-digit Y-o-Y growth, right?

而且根據你的細分，智能手機業務仍然可以看到個位數的同比增長，對吧？

So I'm wondering, have you discount the potential downside risk if that entity list issue is going to last longer.

所以我想知道，如果實體列表問題持續更長時間，你是否會低估潛在的下行風險。

Actually, I don't want to specifically pinpoint one customer only.

實際上，我不想只具體確定一位客戶。

All I can say is the second half, the new smartphone launches, especially the premium grade, has been the seasonality phenomena for us, always the second half.

我只能說下半年，新智能手機的推出，尤其是高端智能手機，一直是我們的季節性現象，一直是下半年。

And the acceleration of the 5G actually enhance this kind of increase.

而 5G 的加速實際上增強了這種增長。

That's all I can say.

這就是我能說的。

Let me add a little bit, too.

讓我也補充一點。

Of course, the second half, there are still a lot of uncertainties, right, the geopolitical part, trade policy changes still go with the time.

當然，下半年，還是有很多不確定性的，對，地緣政治部分，貿易政策的變化還是要跟上時間的。

But I think the second half, the biggest growth momentum comes from the new smartphone launches.

但我認為下半年，最大的增長動力來自新智能手機的推出。

On Huawei's factors, yes, we think we did the discount.

關於華為的因素，是的，我們認為我們做了折扣。

But Huawei -- since Huawei's been, many things happens, too.

但是華為——自從華為出現以來，也發生了很多事情。

The downside is generally the smartphone market becoming uncertain in addition to Huawei themselves.

不利的一面是除了華為本身之外，智能手機市場普遍變得不確定。

So the whole Huawei -- whole smartphone market is suppressed, I think.

所以我認為整個華為——整個智能手機市場都受到了壓制。

And secondly is the trade barrier.

其次是貿易壁壘。

Trade uncertainties still prevail in all sectors.

貿易不確定性仍然普遍存在於所有領域。

So from all sectors, particularly the industrial and the consumer, I think that we will still see the momentum still coming -- not coming back.

因此，從所有領域，特別是工業和消費領域，我認為我們仍然會看到勢頭仍在到來——不會回來。

And -- but of course, the 5G momentum picking up, that is also new for the world globally, in U.S., in China, in Korea, in Japan and so forth.

而且——當然，5G 勢頭正在回升，這對於全球範圍內的世界來說也是新的，在美國、中國、韓國、日本等等。

So those all factors combined, we think we try to make the best judgment and think that's the conclusion C.C. just delivered.

所以所有這些因素結合起來，我們認為我們試圖做出最好的判斷，並認為這就是 C.C. 的結論。剛剛交付。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這很有幫助。

And my next question is to Lora.

我的下一個問題是勞拉。

It's going to be a tough question before you transfer to another role.

在你轉移到另一個角色之前，這將是一個棘手的問題。

So a follow-up in this -- Randy's question, right?

所以這是蘭迪的問題的後續，對吧？

So compare your third quarter revenue scale versus the revenue scale in the first quarter 2018, that quarter you made 50% gross margin, right?

所以比較你第三季度的收入規模和 2018 年第一季度的收入規模，那個季度你的毛利率是 50%，對吧？

So that means you have a higher scale, but the gross margin, I think, is 2 percentage point or 4 percentage points than that quarter, right?

所以這意味著你有更高的規模，但我認為毛利率比那個季度高 2 個百分點或 4 個百分點，對吧？

So I'm asking you whether there's any structural issue.

所以我問你是否有任何結構性問題。

And also, more specifically, your 7-nanometer is in the second year, right?

而且，更具體地說，你的 7 納米是在第二年，對吧？

So supposedly, it shouldn't cause the -- any margin dilution anymore, especially you are saying that 7-nanometer fab is quite busy, right?

因此，據推測，它不應該再導致任何利潤稀釋，尤其是您說 7 納米晶圓廠非常繁忙，對吧？

so can you explain why revenue scale is higher, fab is busy second year of the new nodes, but gross margin's low a few quarters ago.

所以你能解釋一下為什麼收入規模更高，晶圓廠在新節點的第二年很忙，但毛利率在幾個季度前很低。

Actually, utilization is still the main factor if you'll compare on year-over-year basis.

實際上，如果您逐年比較，利用率仍然是主要因素。

Of course, there is still some dilution for N7, but this dilution will start to diminish as we have much strong demand in the second half, okay?

當然，N7仍有一定的稀釋度，但這種稀釋度會開始減弱，因為下半年我們的需求非常強勁，好嗎？

Another thing is there's a little bit of a product mix issue.

另一件事是有一點產品組合問題。

You do have -- we have portfolio of product mix.

你有——我們有產品組合。

We have talked about this.

我們已經討論過這個問題。

There's certain technology is not -- surprisingly, is low.

有一定的技術不是——令人驚訝的是，它是低的。

For example, 28-nanometer, that has some impact on our overall corporate margin.

例如，28 納米，這對我們的整體公司利潤率有一些影響。

So those are the things I can think of that related to the margin changes, okay?

所以這些是我能想到的與保證金變化有關的事情，好嗎？

All right.

好的。

We will go to the line now.

我們現在就去排隊。

Operator, please have the first caller on the line.

接線員，請讓第一個來電者在線。

The first question comes from the line of Gokul Hariharan from JPMorgan.

第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

First question, there's been a lot of discussion recently about more competitions from one of your foundry competitors.

第一個問題，最近有很多關於來自您的代工廠競爭對手的更多競爭的討論。

Could you, C.C., talk a little bit about a roadmap on 5-nanometer and especially your 3-nanometer?

C.C.，您能否談談 5 納米，尤其是您的 3 納米的路線圖？

One of your competitors is looking to introduce a new transistor structure like gate-all-around.

您的一個競爭對手正在尋求引入一種新的晶體管結構，例如環柵。

Is this going to stick with the FinFET and 3-nanometer as well?

這是否也適用於 FinFET 和 3 納米？

Or if it's also likely to move to a nanosheet or gate-all-around structure?

或者，如果它也有可能轉移到納米片或全柵結構？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Secondly, could we talk a little bit about what is the activity level TSMC is seeing at 5-nanometer capacity?

其次，我們能否談談台積電在 5 納米容量上看到的活動水平？

I think previously, you've mentioned that 5-nano is seeing -- you're building lesser 5-nanometer capacity for next year.

我認為，您之前提到過 5 納米正在見證——您正在為明年建設較少的 5 納米產能。

And could we also talk a little bit about how our customers are thinking in terms of choosing for 6-nanometer versus 5-nanometer especially the customers who are on 7-nanometer today?

我們還可以談談我們的客戶在選擇 6 納米還是 5 納米方面的想法，尤其是今天使用 7 納米的客戶？

All right.

好的。

Gokul, it seems -- I guess because you have a flu, so we didn't -- we can't really hear you quite well.

Gokul，似乎——我猜是因為你得了流感，所以我們沒有——我們真的聽不太清楚你的聲音。

But let me try to see if I understand your questions.

但是讓我試著看看我是否理解你的問題。

First, your question is with regard to the competition within foundry.

首先，您的問題是關於代工內部的競爭。

You asked whether we can compare our technology road map of 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer versus that of the competitors.

您問我們是否可以將我們的 5 納米和 3 納米技術路線圖與競爭對手的技術路線圖進行比較。

And your second question is with respect to 5-nanometer where you asked that we seemed to be a little bit more conservative about 5-nanometer capacity build plan some time ago, and now we are a bit more aggressive.

你的第二個問題是關於 5 納米，你問我們前段時間似乎對 5 納米產能建設計劃更加保守，現在我們更加激進。

And so you are asking us if we have seen any difference we see in customers' demand for 5-nanometer.

因此，您問我們是否發現客戶對 5 納米的需求有任何差異。

C.C., would you answer the first question?

C.C.，你會回答第一個問題嗎？

Yes, yes, yes.

對對對。

The first question?

第一個問題？

First question is 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer.

第一個問題是5納米和3納米。

We think our 5-nanometer is very competitive and the first one in the industry in that geometry.

我們認為我們的 5 納米非常有競爭力，並且在該幾何結構中是業內第一個。

And what is the risk production right now and the volume production in the first half in the next year, these continue to be the same situation.

而現在的風險生產是多少，明年上半年的量產是多少，還是一樣的情況。

And about the 3-nanometer, let me clarify a little bit.

關於 3 納米，讓我稍微澄清一下。

We have evaluated all the possible options and come with a very good solution for our customer.

我們已經評估了所有可能的選項，並為我們的客戶提供了一個非常好的解決方案。

We continue to work with our customer to define the spec, to define the approaches and to meet their requirement and I'll update you about our choices next time.

我們將繼續與我們的客戶合作來定義規範、定義方法並滿足他們的要求，下次我會向您介紹我們的選擇。

Let me add that, actually, our 5-nanometer is a full-node stride from our 7-nanometer.

讓我補充一點，實際上，我們的 5 納米是我們 7 納米的全節點跨度。

And our 3-nanometer is another full node stride from our 5-nanometer.

我們的 3 納米是我們 5 納米的另一個完整節點。

This is very different than our competitors' road map.

這與我們競爭對手的路線圖非常不同。

So if you compare their numerical, 3 is probably closer to the 5. Secondly, on the 5-nanometer capacity build -- the second question is 5-nanometer capacity.

因此，如果您比較它們的數值，3 可能更接近於 5。其次，關於 5 納米容量構建——第二個問題是 5 納米容量。

Yes, what type do we see in customer demand.

是的，我們在客戶需求中看到了什麼類型。

Okay, it's C.C. now.

好吧，這是C.C.現在。

Okay.

好的。

The 5-nanometer, in the last quarter when we communicated with you, we said that we are going to be a little bit conservative and to work with customer to plan the capacity that's necessary to support them.

5 納米，在上個季度與您溝通時，我們說我們會有點保守，並與客戶合作規劃支持他們所需的容量。

Now in these 3 months, because of a speed-up of 5G's development, we are working with the customer again.

現在這3個月，由於5G發展的提速，我們再次與客戶合作。

We have to up our -- probably we change our conservative attitude to become a little bit more aggressive and so to meet our customer's demand.

我們必須提高我們的 - 可能我們改變我們的保守態度，變得更加激進，從而滿足客戶的需求。

Right now, this is a new development all because of 5G AI's progress.

現在，這是一個新的發展，都是因為 5G AI 的進步。

All right.

好的。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

Next question will be coming from Goldman Sachs' Bruce Lu.

下一個問題將來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

So the last couple of months has been pretty exciting in terms of the macro environment.

因此，就宏觀環境而言，過去幾個月非常令人興奮。

So I think there are some changes in terms of customer behavior.

所以我認為在客戶行為方面有一些變化。

Typically, we somehow synchronize their production together with their sales.

通常，我們會以某種方式將他們的生產與銷售同步。

So if they have some problem in terms of the sales through, they somehow change their production plan.

因此，如果他們在銷售方面遇到問題，他們會以某種方式改變他們的生產計劃。

There may be some time lag.

可能會有一些時間滯後。

But the last couple of months, we saw that customer is willing to be piling up more inventory, is willing to -- there are some disruption in terms of their sale through plan.

但在過去的幾個月裡，我們看到客戶願意堆積更多的庫存，願意——他們的計劃銷售出現了一些中斷。

But in terms of production plan, you don't really see a lot of meaningful changes at least for TSMC.

但就生產計劃而言，至少對於台積電來說，你並沒有真正看到很多有意義的變化。

So how do we forecast this kind of thing moving forward?

那麼我們如何預測這種事情的發展呢？

It seems to me that the macro environment seems so dynamic, but we have -- as analyst, we have a lot of difficulties, right?

在我看來，宏觀環境似乎如此動態，但我們有——作為分析師，我們有很多困難，對吧？

We can't just follow the tweets.

我們不能只關注推文。

So can you help us how to do the -- how do you predict that kind of customer behavior in terms of the production planning moving forward?

那麼你能幫助我們如何去做——你如何預測這種客戶在生產計劃方面的行為？

That's an interesting question.

這是一個有趣的問題。

You ask us how we estimate or forecast the customers' inventory or how they plan out their component.

您問我們如何估計或預測客戶的庫存或他們如何計劃他們的組件。

Let me tell you that TSMC only receive the PO we put into production.

我告訴你台積電只收到我們投產的PO。

Okay?

好的？

And we did not see that strange customer's behavior and see that they are piling up of the product in expectation of something happen.

而且我們沒有看到那個奇怪的客戶的行為，也沒有看到他們堆積產品以期發生某些事情。

Now we did not see that.

現在我們沒有看到。

That in our -- in our daily life, again, let me stress one point.

在我們的日常生活中，讓我再次強調一點。

We receive the PO, we do the production, and we did not see a very strange kind of phenomena.

我們收到訂單，我們做生產，我們沒有看到一種非常奇怪的現象。

So don't follow the tweet.

所以不要關注推文。

As the fabless inventory, I think Lora just reported is coming down.

作為無晶圓廠庫存，我認為 Lora 剛剛報導的庫存正在下降。

But one of the important customer, they don't provide the public information.

但作為重要客戶之一，他們不提供公開信息。

That's right.

這是正確的。

That becomes a biggest swing factor, right?

這成為最大的搖擺因素，對吧？

Most system companies, we have the inside look.

大多數係統公司，我們都有內幕。

But the company you mentioned, yes indeed, we do not know their inventories.

但是你提到的公司，是的，我們不知道他們的庫存。

But from their orders stream, we don't see any abnormal flow.

但是從他們的訂單流中，我們沒有看到任何異常流。

I see.

我懂了。

The second thing is the management kept on mentioning about our 5G's acceleration.

第二件事是管理層不斷提到我們5G的加速。

Can you give us some like granularity of like what kind of revenue contribution coming from 5G in second half 2019 or 2020, either from smartphone side or from infrastructure side?

你能否給我們一些類似的粒度，比如 2019 年下半年或 2020 年下半年 5G 帶來的收入貢獻是來自智能手機方面還是基礎設施方面？

What is the revenue exposure to TSMC at this moment?

目前台積電的收入敞口是多少？

Lora, do we have 5G specific pointed out?

Lora，我們有 5G 的具體說明嗎？

We don't.

我們沒有。

It's difficult to kind of differentiate how much demand is coming from 5G.

很難區分來自 5G 的需求量。

We track the demand on node basis, also on platform basis.

我們基於節點和平台跟踪需求。

5G may be related to HPC, some of the smartphone as well.

5G可能與HPC有關，某些智能手機也是如此。

We do see those 2 segment are growing very strongly, if any.

我們確實看到這兩個細分市場增長非常強勁（如果有的話）。

Yes.

是的。

Let me add some color to it.

讓我給它加點顏色。

Actually, the networking processor, FPGA product, even some CPUs and also base stations, smartphone, that all are in 5G.

實際上，網絡處理器、FPGA 產品，甚至一些 CPU 以及基站、智能手機，都在 5G 中。

And we see a very, very strong demand in the second half of this year.

我們看到今年下半年的需求非常非常強勁。

I think the question you're asking about, the exposure of 5G, can you elaborate what that means?

我想你問的問題，5G的曝光，你能詳細說明這意味著什麼嗎？

Well, basically, it's now -- that is the strongest demand as management just mentioned, right?

嗯，基本上，現在——這是管理層剛剛提到的最強烈的需求，對吧？

So basically, we try to get some granularity or we try to quantify how much growth we can expect moving forward, right?

所以基本上，我們試圖獲得一些粒度，或者我們試圖量化我們可以預期的未來增長，對吧？

So yes, as I said, it can be any kind of product.

所以是的，正如我所說，它可以是任何類型的產品。

So -- but the bigger revenue contribution still comes from the base station and the smartphone side, right?

所以——但更大的收入貢獻仍然來自基站和智能手機端，對吧？

So that's the key area we are we are trying to focus on.

所以這是我們正在努力關注的關鍵領域。

Yes.

是的。

And the smartphone adopt -- implementation of 5G on the smartphone, we see actually stronger than when we were at 4G's ramp-up, okay?

智能手機採用——在智能手機上實施 5G，我們看到實際上比我們在 4G 加速時更強，好嗎？

That's the information you get.

這就是你得到的信息。

And that is the opportunity for us as we consider here.

這就是我們在這裡考慮的機會。

Lastly, can I squeeze in, like can we still maintain that 5 years revenue CAGR's guidance?

最後，我可以擠進去嗎，我們還能保持 5 年收入 CAGR 的指導嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Okay.

好的。

So that's the confirmation.

所以這就是確認。

Next question will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

With the 7-nanometer reach 25% of total revenue this year, and 7-nanometer will be the biggest node ever in revenue to TSMC this year.

隨著今年7納米佔總營收的25%，7納米將成為台積電今年營收的最大節點。

And next year, C.C., you expect 7-nanometer will be growing even more than 25% of total revenue next year?

明年，C.C.，您預計 7 納米技術明年的總收入將增長超過 25% 嗎？

So it means that 7-nanometer will be even bigger.

所以這意味著7納米會更大。

And then, C.C., you also said 5-nanometer going forward will be a big and long-lasting node and also will be growing bigger than 7-nanometer.

然後，C.C.，你還說 5 納米未來將是一個大而持久的節點，並且會比 7 納米更大。

So are you still maintaining this view with -- that the 7-nanometer is going to be very big next year?

那麼你是否仍然保持這種觀點——明年 7 納米將會非常大？

First, let me say again.

首先，我再說一遍。

It will be very big next year, all right?

明年會很大，好嗎？

Why we are so upbeat on the 5-nanometer because we see that -- we forecast the ramp-up will be faster than, in terms of the revenue, faster than 7-nanometer.

為什麼我們對 5 納米如此樂觀，因為我們看到了這一點——我們預測，就收入而言，增長速度將快於 7 納米。

And we expect that our 5-nanometer as a solution to all the customers is very competitive.

我們希望我們的 5 納米作為對所有客戶的解決方案非常具有競爭力。

And the 5G AI, again, that will be a benefit to the 5-nanometers, of course, and the 7-nanometer.

當然，5G AI 也將有利於 5 納米和 7 納米。

Yes.

是的。

So for next year, first, you are going to ramp 5-nanometer very fastly.

因此，對於明年，首先，您將非常快速地推進 5 納米。

And then you still have a very a big 7-nanometer.

然後你仍然有一個非常大的 7 納米。

So for next year, so what is the overall growth outlook for you for next year?

那麼對於明年，您明年的整體增長前景如何？

Let's wait for next year, then I'll give you the answer.

讓我們等明年，然後我會給你答案。

But all your statements are true.

但你所有的陳述都是真實的。

Okay.

好的。

Second question actually is also related to this 7-nanometer and the 5-nanometer.

第二個問題其實也和這個7納米和5納米有關。

So now your 7+ is entering mass production, so how is the EUV availability and the productivity for your 7+ so far?

那麼現在您的 7+ 正在進入量產階段，那麼到目前為止，您的 7+ 的 EUV 可用性和生產力如何？

Has it reached the mass production need now?

現在達到量產需求了嗎？

The EUV, we don't see any problem in production.

EUV，我們在生產中沒有看到任何問題。

So it's growing very well, on schedule, and we are very happy about it.

所以它發展得非常好，按計劃進行，我們對此感到非常高興。

How does the EUV productivity or availability compare to immersion in the same stage?

與同一階段的沉浸式相比，EUV 的生產力或可用性如何？

Same stage.

同一階段。

Same stage, that's a long time ago.

同一階段，那是很久以前的事了。

So far, it's -- on our schedule, everything's according to the plan.

到目前為止，這是 - 在我們的日程安排上，一切都按計劃進行。

So that's all I can say.

所以這就是我能說的。

Okay.

好的。

So just on outlook, do you -- so for next year, with your very fast 7-nanometer and the 5-nanometer ramp.

所以就前景而言，你是不是 - 明年，你的 7 納米和 5 納米坡道非常快。

So is this EUV going to be a big dilution to the gross margin next year?

那麼這款 EUV 是否會大大稀釋明年的毛利率？

Oh, that's a tough question.

哦，這是一個棘手的問題。

All I can say is that EUV will perform as we scheduled, all right?

我只能說 EUV 會按照我們的計劃執行，好嗎？

And EUV will be important in our cost-reduction path.

EUV 將在我們降低成本的道路上發揮重要作用。

All right.

好的。

Let's go back to the line.

讓我們回到這條線。

Operator, please have the next caller on the line.

接線員，請接下一位來電者。

Next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

A couple of follow-ups.

幾個後續。

On the CapEx item, how should I think about the higher-than-expected CapEx in 2019?

在資本支出項目上，我應該如何看待 2019 年高於預期的資本支出？

Is that more of the pull-in for 2020?

2020年的吸引力更大嗎？

Or your capital intensity is going to remain at a higher level looking forward?

或者您的資本密集度將在未來保持在更高的水平？

We are still working on the CapEx number.

我們仍在研究資本支出數字。

We're going to report to you next quarter.

我們將在下個季度向您報告。

I think in terms of the rushing, we are seeing more CapEx requirement both for 7-nanometer, also for 5-nanometer.

我認為就衝刺而言，我們看到 7 納米和 5 納米的資本支出要求更高。

For 5-nanometer, we need to pull in the tools to meet customers' request, okay?

對於 5 納米，我們需要引入工具以滿足客戶的要求，好嗎？

So in terms of capital intensity, you'll probably see a -- in a short-term period, it will go higher than what I have guided, the 30% level.

因此，就資本密集度而言，您可能會看到——在短期內，它會高於我所指導的 30% 的水平。

But in the longer term, we still believe the 30% level is still the right level of CapEx intensity.

但從長遠來看，我們仍然認為 30% 的水平仍然是資本支出強度的正確水平。

And just a quick follow-up on your view on Q4.

并快速跟進您對第四季度的看法。

I get a sense that there are still uncertain environment.

我感覺到仍然存在不確定的環境。

What is the one end market that is the most variable when you think about the trend into Q4?

當您考慮進入第四季度的趨勢時，哪個終端市場變化最大？

Could you please repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Mehdi, you are asking what is the one end market that is most vulnerable or valuable?

Mehdi，你問的是最脆弱或最有價值的終端市場是什麼？

I didn't...

我沒有...

If that makes it more challenging to you to forecasting Q4?

如果這讓您對第四季度的預測更具挑戰性？

Most challenging, okay, for Q4.

最具挑戰性的，好吧，對於第四季度。

Yes.

是的。

Well, I think the most recent Japan and Korea dispute probably is the most uncertain one for the fourth quarter here.

好吧，我認為最近的日韓爭端可能是第四季度最不確定的爭端。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

So how should I think about its impact by a specific end market?

那麼我應該如何看待它對特定終端市場的影響呢？

Is that more of a broad-based unknown factor?

這更像是一個基礎廣泛的未知因素嗎？

Is the unknown more of the broad-based macroeconomic trends?

未知的更多是基礎廣泛的宏觀經濟趨勢嗎？

Or is that specific to one particular end market?

還是特定於一個特定的終端市場？

It is so uncertain that we don't -- cannot pin down specific products that are being impacted.

不確定性如此之大，以至於我們無法確定受到影響的特定產品。

People talk about smartphone itself could be impacted.

人們談論智能手機本身可能會受到影響。

But it's breaking down many supply chains.

但它正在破壞許多供應鏈。

So it is including display or other electronic components.

所以它包括顯示器或其他電子元件。

So that is difficult part for us to make estimation.

所以這對我們來說是很難估計的部分。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

May I ask you one more question?

我可以再問你一個問題嗎？

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

I'll make it quick.

我會盡快處理的。

I'll make it quick.

我會盡快處理的。

But we -- I think there is no doubt that 5G opportunities are enormous.

但是我們——我認為毫無疑問，5G 的機會是巨大的。

And -- but I just want to better understand how TSMC is planning.

而且 - 但我只是想更好地了解台積電的計劃。

Carriers refer to a commercial end market or commercial after the 5G as more meaningful than consumer and handset.

運營商指的是商用終端市場或5G之後的商用，比消費者和手機更有意義。

On the other hand, your customers semiconductor companies highlight the opportunities in the smartphone.

另一方面，您的客戶半導體公司強調智能手機的機會。

So as you plan for your capacity -- leading-edge capacity plans, it's a very long lead time.

因此，當您規劃您的產能時——領先的產能計劃，這是一個非常長的交付週期。

How do you think about 5G and its impact on consumer, which is more of a handset or smartphone versus a commercial aspect, which could have an impact on your HPC or other segment?

您如何看待 5G 及其對消費者的影響，這更像是手機或智能手機而不是商業方面，這可能會對您的 HPC 或其他細分市場產生影響？

Well, actually, let me answer the question.

好吧，實際上，讓我來回答這個問題。

Because 5G, what we expect is not only on the consumer products like a smartphone, per se, I do see the 5G will affect every area in our platform.

因為 5G，我們所期待的不僅是智能手機等消費產品本身，我確實看到 5G 將影響我們平台的每個領域。

For example, without 5G, the autonomous driving will not be possible.

例如，沒有 5G，自動駕駛將無法實現。

So it's very important for automotive also.

所以它對汽車也很重要。

It's very important for the high-performance computing also because that's one of the networking processor where everything is connected.

這對於高性能計算也非常重要，因為它是連接一切的網絡處理器之一。

It's also important for the IoT because that's where you connect all the data.

這對物聯網也很重要，因為這是您連接所有數據的地方。

And with the 5G's a multichannel with a very small latency with very high-speed and with the -- and all the data collection need to be analyzed.

借助 5G 的多通道，延遲非常小，速度非常快，並且需要分析所有數據收集。

So I think in terms of 5G, the effect on the business and also on TSMC's capacity plan, it's enormous.

所以我認為就 5G 而言，對業務以及台積電產能計劃的影響是巨大的。

So we are -- what TSMC is doing is right now working with all the customers to plan for their businesses and plan our own capacity.

所以我們 - 台積電現在正在與所有客戶合作，為他們的業務規劃並規劃我們自己的產能。

That's all I can say.

這就是我能說的。

Let me add some color for this.

讓我為此添加一些顏色。

5G, I think the -- if you look at next year, the biggest business influencer should be in the smartphone.

5G，我認為——如果你看看明年，最大的商業影響力應該是智能手機。

And secondly, it will be the high-performance computing, which composed of the networking and other infrastructures.

其次是高性能計算，由網絡和其他基礎設施組成。

As far as the automotive and the IoT consumer, we have a high expectation for that.

就汽車和物聯網消費者而言，我們對此寄予厚望。

But I think it will take some time before the usage model get implemented in the market.

但我認為使用模型在市場上實施還需要一些時間。

That will come back -- come to us later.

那會回來的——稍後再找我們。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Lu from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Bill Lu。

First of all, I just want to say thank you to Lora for all the help over the years and patience in answering all of the questions.

首先，我只想感謝 Lora 多年來提供的所有幫助以及耐心回答所有問題。

So thanks a lot and the best of luck.

非常感謝，祝你好運。

My first question is again on 7-nanometers.

我的第一個問題又是關於 7 納米的。

If I go back and look at TSMC for 28-nanometers, that was TSMC's most successful node of all time, and that coincided with the big smartphone ramp.

如果我回頭看看台積電的 28 納米，那是台積電有史以來最成功的節點，而這恰逢智能手機的大規模升級。

If I now look at 7, you've got the move from 4G to 5G, but you're also adding HPC.

如果我現在看 7，您已經從 4G 遷移到 5G，但您還添加了 HPC。

How do I think about the -- yes, if I look at capacity for 7, is it reasonable to assume that it could be bigger than 28?

我如何看待——是的，如果我看一下 7 的容量，假設它可能大於 28 是否合理？

7, at this same stage, is it bigger than 28?

7、同階段，比28大嗎？

Are we...

我們是...

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

So my members say yes, but I think I don't think so.

所以我的成員說是，但我認為我不這麼認為。

I think revenue-wise, 7-nanometer would definitely be much bigger than 28-nanometer but not necessarily the capacity.

我認為在收入方面，7 納米肯定會比 28 納米大得多，但容量不一定。

Yes.

是的。

Not the capacity.

不是容量。

Okay.

好的。

Can you give me a sense for ultimately how big 7 capacity could be relative to 28?

你能告訴我最終 7 的容量相對於 28 有多大嗎？

It's not more but it's close at the same stage.

它不是更多，但它在同一階段接近。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Maybe I could ask that a different way.

也許我可以換個方式問。

Well, just if you look at 7-nanometer demand, let's say, a year from now, what do you think is the split between HPC, smartphones and maybe the other platforms?

好吧，如果你看看 7 納米的需求，比方說，一年後，你認為 HPC、智能手機和其他平台之間的分歧是什麼？

Bill is asking, a year from today, if we look back and look at the 7-nanometer revenue, what will be the split between HPC, smartphone and other platforms.

比爾問，一年後，如果我們回顧一下 7 納米的收入，HPC、智能手機和其他平台之間的差距會是多少。

We don't have the specific number.

我們沒有具體的數字。

But if you look at today's HPC and smartphone percentage ratio, I think it will be probably similar, although a fraction of the smartphone may not be the leading-edge.

但是如果你看看今天的 HPC 和智能手機的百分比，我認為它可能會相似，儘管智能手機的一小部分可能不是領先的。

But for those 2 sectors, most of -- both sectors are closer to the leading-edge.

但對於這兩個行業，大部分——這兩個行業都更接近前沿。

So both of the factors -- both of those segments will go to 7-nanometer.

所以這兩個因素——這兩個部分都將達到 7 納米。

So probably, smartphone will still be bigger than HPC.

所以很可能，智能手機仍然會比 HPC 更大。

It's similar ratio, I think.

我認為這是相似的比例。

That's the business we have today.

這就是我們今天的業務。

Great.

偉大的。

My second question is on 5-nanometers.

我的第二個問題是關於 5 納米的。

So a quarter ago, I asked Dr. Wei about the cost per transistor at 5-nanometers.

所以一個季度前，我向魏博士詢問了 5 納米每個晶體管的成本。

And I heard some of the feedback from customers is that maybe it's not coming down as fast as expected.

我聽到客戶的一些反饋是，它可能沒有像預期的那樣快速下降。

And I think Dr. Wei's answer was that TSMC is working at it -- is working on it.

我認為魏博士的回答是台積電正在努力——正在努力。

I'm just wondering, can you give me an update on that?

我只是想知道，你能給我更新一下嗎？

Whether costs have seen improvement?

成本是否有所改善？

Or what's the status there?

或者那裡的狀態如何？

Excuse me, you're asking the device improvement?

請問，您是問設備改進嗎？

Or is it demand improvement?

還是需求改善？

No, sorry.

不，對不起。

I think if you look at cost per transistor for 5-nanometers, it's not coming down as fast as previous nodes.

我認為，如果您查看 5 納米的每個晶體管的成本，它的下降速度並沒有以前的節點那麼快。

I'm wondering if you have an update there.

我想知道你那裡有沒有更新。

No, I don't have any update except that right now we see a much more stronger demand.

不，我沒有任何更新，只是現在我們看到了更強勁的需求。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

Next question will be coming from Daiwa's Rick Hsu.

下一個問題將來自 Daiwa 的 Rick Hsu。

Just one question from me.

我只有一個問題。

I think, Lora, just talking about your -- this year's revenue growth by different platforms.

我想，Lora，只是在談論你的 - 今年不同平台的收入增長。

So like smartphone, up a single digit; high performance, single digit up; and IoT, up double digit.

所以就像智能手機一樣，上升一位數；高性能，個位數向上；和物聯網，增長兩位數。

So if I recall my memory, this set of guidance looks the same as that you've provided early this year.

所以，如果我記得我的記憶，這套指導看起來和你今年早些時候提供的一樣。

So can I fairly assume by your total revenue that you guys still keep the same guidance of the revenue for the whole year?

那麼我可以根據你們的總收入公平地假設你們全年的收入仍然保持相同的指導嗎？

Will be up slightly year-on-year?

會同比小幅上漲嗎？

There is still uncertainty on fourth quarter.

四季度仍有不確定性。

What I can say now is fourth quarter revenue will be higher than third quarter.

我現在可以說的是第四季度的收入將高於第三季度。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Just one quick follow-up.

只需快速跟進。

Can also you update us this year's Global Semi outlook and also global foundry's?

您能否更新我們今年的全球半導體展望以及全球代工廠的展望？

Next -- you mean 2020?

下一個——你的意思是 2020 年？

No, no, no, this year.

不，不，不，今年。

Yes.

是的。

This year.

今年。

This year's.

這些年。

This year, our foundry actually is a little bit negative.

今年，我們的代工其實有點消極。

Semi, excluding memory, negative 3%.

半，不包括內存，負3%。

Foundry, negative 1% this year.

Foundry，今年負 1%。

So we have been implicitly answered your question.

所以我們已經含蓄地回答了你的問題。

All right.

好的。

Next question will be coming from Crédit Suisse's Randy.

下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的蘭迪。

I just wanted to -- there's been a lot of press and maybe it's noise about customers evaluating other foundries.

我只是想 - 有很多媒體，也許是關於客戶評估其他代工廠的噪音。

So you all came out of strong in 5G, HPC.

所以你們都在 5G、HPC 中脫穎而出。

Are you -- I'm just curious if you're factoring in any offsets.

你是 - 我只是好奇你是否考慮到任何偏移量。

Like in the past, you've had couple major customers like go back and forth between foundries.

像過去一樣，你有幾個主要客戶，比如在代工廠之間來回走動。

So as you look at the next couple of years, do you see that much -- like how do you see your market share?

因此，當您展望未來幾年時，您是否看到了那麼多——比如您如何看待您的市場份額？

And do you see any offsets to that strength over the next couple of years?

在接下來的幾年裡，你認為這種力量有什麼抵消嗎？

Well, we did see the strong competition.

好吧，我們確實看到了激烈的競爭。

But let me assure you that our technologies and leadership and also that our manufacturing excellent.

但讓我向您保證，我們的技術和領導地位以及我們的製造非常出色。

With our customer's trust, I believe we are going to maintain our market share and increase the market share.

有了客戶的信任，我相信我們會保持我們的市場份額並增加市場份額。

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, within that because we know about some projects like customers like AMD that have shut down or switched from GLOBALFOUNDRIES.

好吧，因為我們知道一些項目，比如像 AMD 這樣的客戶，它們已經關閉或從 GLOBALFOUNDRIES 轉換過來。

So it's more of if you also see any offsetting drags that we should factor in just so we don't get too far ahead of ourselves, if there's anything that we saw a few years ago.

因此，如果您還看到我們應該考慮的任何抵消阻力，那麼我們就不會超前於自己太遠，如果我們幾年前看到了什麼的話。

We had a mobile customer shift foundries.

我們有一個移動客戶轉移鑄造廠。

Like if you see any offsets -- or from a market share, it still looks like -- I think in the past you've said you have pretty much all the customers.

就像如果你看到任何抵消——或者從市場份額來看，它仍然看起來像——我認為過去你說過你幾乎擁有所有的客戶。

But if you still view that on the [present]?

但是，如果您仍然在 [現在] 上查看它？

Yes.

是的。

We factor what the possible competitors' sales approach.

我們考慮了可能的競爭對手的銷售方式。

We factor it in, yes.

我們把它考慮在內，是的。

Okay.

好的。

And then if I could ask on the nodes.

然後我是否可以在節點上詢問。

Actually, 2 of them.

實際上，其中有2個。

One on -- as the 7 matures over the next couple of years, how you now see the variation of 7+ and 6 because I think in the past, you saw that as becoming mainstream.

一個上 - 隨著 7 在接下來的幾年中成熟，你現在如何看待 7+ 和 6 的變化，因為我認為過去，你認為它已成為主流。

If you still think that 7 evolves that way or most of the customers move to the EUV version, 7+ or 6. And then for 5, for next year, how concentrated do you see that both in terms of customers?

如果您仍然認為 7 會以這種方式發展，或者大多數客戶轉向 EUV 版本，7+ 或 6。然後對於 5，明年，您認為兩者在客戶方面的集中度如何？

And then also if it's concentrated smartphone or you see a lot of HPC.

然後如果它是集中的智能手機，或者你看到很多 HPC。

Let me answer that.

讓我來回答。

I believe you asked about the 7+ or 6, right, will the 2 continue the 7-nanometers node.

我相信你問過 7+ 或 6，對，2 會繼續 7 納米節點嗎？

Actually, we would believe that most of the customers, especially the second wave customer, will to adopt 6, okay?

其實我們相信大部分客戶，尤其是第二波客戶，都會採用6，好嗎？

Because it's 100% compatible with the 7, that reduce their burden of redesign or the IPs.

因為它與 7 100% 兼容，從而減少了他們重新設計或 IP 的負擔。

So the 6 will be a very sweet spot for them to continue with the 7 route.

所以 6 將是他們繼續 7 路線的一個非常好的地方。

That's one, okay.

就是一個，好吧。

7+, this year actually is -- we provide a better performance and better density for some of the customers that have been adopted.

7+，今年實際上是——我們為一些已經採用的客戶提供了更好的性能和更好的密度。

And it will continue to grow.

而且還會繼續增長。

The majority, as I said, will be going to 6. As for 5, 5 would be adopted by a lot of platform, that's including the smartphone, the mobile, including the high performance computing.

大部分，正如我所說的，將走向 6。至於 5，5 將被很多平台採用，包括智能手機、移動設備，包括高性能計算。

And let me see, what else?

讓我看看，還有什麼？

IoT, no, no.

物聯網，不，不。

We do not see IoT yet.

我們還沒有看到物聯網。

At the beginning, it will be mobile and HPC.

一開始，它將是移動和HPC。

Next question will be coming from CL Securities' Sebastian Hou.

下一個問題將來自 CL Securities 的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is a little bit of follow-up on Randy's questions.

我的第一個問題是對蘭迪問題的一點跟進。

So if you narrow down Randy's questions to a very leading-edge technology, the market share.

因此，如果您將 Randy 的問題縮小到非常領先的技術，即市場份額。

Let's say, sub 10-nanometers market share in the next 3 years.

比方說，未來 3 年亞 10 納米的市場份額。

What's TSMC's expectation on that?

台積電對此有何期待？

Are we going to maintain or further increase market share here?

我們是要保持還是進一步增加這裡的市場份額？

I'll believe we'll maintain well.

我相信我們會保持得很好。

We have a very high market share.

我們擁有非常高的市場份額。

Very high.

很高。

So the -- but in terms of the very high, like, 95 is high.

所以——但就非常高而言，比如，95 是高的。

90 is high.

90是高。

So from 95 to 90, there are...

所以從95到90，有...

You want to nail down the number?

你想確定數字嗎？

I want to know the direction.

我想知道方向。

I think direction, probably, our 16 is higher than our 28.

我認為方向，可能，我們的 16 比我們的 28 高。

And our 7 will be higher than our 16 and on, yes.

而且我們的 7 會比我們的 16 更高，是的。

All right.

好的。

And then what's your expectation of 5 versus 7?

那麼你對 5 對 7 的期望是什麼？

5, it's too early to say.

5，現在說還為時過早。

But we target to be higher than 7.

但我們的目標是高於 7。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is can TSMC talk about the possibility of building the fab or acquiring a fab company in the United States?

我的第二個問題是，台積電能否談談在美國建廠或收購晶圓廠公司的可能性？

And would this is -- would this be out of the pure geopolitical concerns?

這會是出於純粹的地緣政治問題嗎？

Or any other consideration?

還是有其他考慮？

Of course, geopolitical concern is everybody's concerns.

當然，地緣政治問題是每個人都關心的問題。

However, if you want to answer how can we solve the concern, it's not that simple.

但是，如果你想回答我們如何解決這個問題，那就沒那麼簡單了。

It's not building a fab outside Taiwan or any other country can solve that problem.

它不是在台灣以外建造工廠，也不是任何其他國家都可以解決這個問題。

However, we are always open to build a fab in overseas, provided we can provide the same cost structure to our customers and to our investors.

但是，只要我們能夠為客戶和投資者提供相同的成本結構，我們始終願意在海外建立晶圓廠。

So far, in the U.S, we have talked to the industry and to see whether that is a viable approach, is a good approach to our customers, given the cost differences and if given by the -- in addition to the local subsidies.

到目前為止，在美國，我們已經與該行業進行了交談，看看這是否是一種可行的方法，對我們的客戶來說是否是一種好的方法，考慮到成本差異，以及是否由當地補貼提供。

But still, it's -- current supply from Taiwan is still the best solution for our customers.

但是，現在台灣的供應仍然是我們客戶的最佳解決方案。

So we are open to that, but we are not in a hurry to make a decision.

所以我們對此持開放態度，但我們並不急於做出決定。

Of course, we also see some unproductive facility overseas.

當然，我們在海外也看到了一些非生產性設施。

We don't want to increase the excess capacity for the industry.

我們不想增加該行業的過剩產能。

Therefore, the possible -- in addition, the approach of building a greenfield fab, acquisition is probably better for the industry.

因此，可能——此外，建立新工廠的方法，收購對行業來說可能更好。

That's our current consideration.

這是我們目前的考慮。

But we don't have a definitive plan today that we are going to have that in the U.S. at this point.

但是我們今天還沒有一個明確的計劃，我們現在將在美國擁有它。

Great.

偉大的。

Can I just conclude that -- so TSMC's preference is to -- if you're going to do this, your option will -- your preferred option will be buy rather than build.

我可以得出這樣的結論 - 所以台積電的偏好是 - 如果你要這樣做，你的選擇將 - 你的首選選擇將是購買而不是建造。

At this point, yes.

在這一點上，是的。

Okay.

好的。

I understand.

我明白。

Can I add more -- one more question?

我可以添加更多 - 一個問題嗎？

Follow up later.

稍後跟進。

Okay.

好的。

I'll come in later.

我稍後會進來。

Yes.

是的。

Next will be coming from Citigroup's Roland Shu.

接下來將來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

I would like to switch gears to 8-inch.

我想把齒輪換成8英寸。

So you load your 8-inch at the utilization.

所以你加載你的 8 英寸在利用率。

I think it's probably below corporate average in first half.

我認為這可能低於上半年的企業平均水平。

So how do you see your 8-inch demand or utilization in second half?

那麼您如何看待下半年的 8 英寸需求或利用率？

The second half will be better.

下半場會更好。

Actually it's because of smartphone's seasonality.

實際上是因為智能手機的季節性。

So the 8-inch's utilization rate will be much higher than the first half.

所以8寸的使用率會比上半年高很多。

How do you compare with your corporate average?

你和你的公司平均水平相比如何？

Let me give you some taste that some of the segment actually is fully loaded.

讓我給你一些品味，一些片段實際上是滿載的。

Okay.

好的。

So this is the demand across the board.

所以這是全面的需求。

So it's not just for certain customers' rush orders.

因此，這不僅僅是針對某些客戶的緊急訂單。

Oh, it's demand across the board.

哦，這是全面的需求。

I'm talking about the product segment.

我說的是產品部分。

Okay.

好的。

And second question, how about your Nanjing fab?

第二個問題，你的南京工廠怎麼樣？

So can you give us a color or update for your Nanjing fab?

那麼您能給我們提供您南京工廠的顏色或更新嗎？

Nanjing fab's progress went well.

南京工廠進展順利。

The loading is very healthy, and we continue our plan.

裝載非常健康，我們繼續我們的計劃。

We will build 20,000 wafers per month capacity over there.

我們將在那裡建立每月 20,000 片晶圓的產能。

Any plan to -- above this 20,000?

有沒有計劃——超過這 20,000？

Right now 20,000 is our plan.

現在20,000是我們的計劃。

Now let's go back to the line.

現在讓我們回到這條線。

Operator, please have the caller on the line, the next one.

接線員，請讓來電者在線，下一個。

Next question comes from the line of Xiuxi Zhu from Standard & Poor's.

下一個問題來自標準普爾的朱秀熙一行。

Just have very 2 brief questions.

只要有兩個簡短的問題。

The first one is about your drop -- year-over-year drop of your net income.

第一個是關於你的下降——你的淨收入同比下降。

Could you please give us the specific reasons for the drop, the 7.6% drop in the net income?

您能否告訴我們下降的具體原因，即淨利潤下降 7.6%？

And the second question is about your outlook on the mobile sales in year 2. So you said it will be the main driver of your revenue growth.

第二個問題是關於你對第二年移動銷售的展望。所以你說這將是你收入增長的主要驅動力。

I was wondering will that be overall increase of the shipment of the mobile that you're thinking about?

我想知道這會是您正在考慮的手機出貨量的整體增長嗎？

Or is there any other reason such as the technology upgrades over there?

還是那裡有技術升級之類的其他原因？

That's all.

就這樣。

First question, of course, to explain what the reason behind the year-over-year drop of our net income in this year, I guess, for our second quarter.

第一個問題當然是解釋我們今年第二季度淨收入同比下降的原因是什麼。

The second question is the outlook for mobile, the growth that we indicated, was it because it was driven by a quantity increase?

第二個問題是移動的前景，我們指出的增長，是因為它是由數量增長驅動的嗎？

Or is it because of technology migration, so leading to a revenue increase?

還是因為技術遷移，導致收入增加？

Let me answer the first question.

讓我回答第一個問題。

On year-over-year basis, if we look at the second quarter this year and the second quarter last year, the margin difference is mainly -- there's about 5 percentage points margin difference mainly from the lower utilization this year.

與去年同期相比，如果我們看今年第二季度和去年第二季度，利潤率差異主要是 - 利潤率差異約為 5 個百分點，主要是由於今年較低的利用率。

This -- first half of this year has been very weak, including the second quarter.

今年上半年一直非常疲軟，包括第二季度。

So utilization is the main reason and a little bit of product mix as well, okay?

所以利用率是主要原因，還有一點產品組合，好嗎？

What is the second question?

第二個問題是什麼？

The second question is smartphone revenue increase.

第二個問題是智能手機收入的增長。

Yes.

是的。

Smartphone revenue increase, whether it's quantity or technology migration.

智能手機收入增長，無論是數量還是技術遷移。

;

;

The second half's revenue increase due to the smartphone firstly because of seasonality, of course.

智能手機下半年的收入增長當然首先是因為季節性。

So that's -- as compared with the first half, second half the smartphone is much better.

所以這就是——與上半年相比，下半年智能手機要好得多。

Although we say that the whole year in the smartphone unit, we forecast a drop.

雖然我們說全年在智能手機部門，但我們預測會下降。

But TSMC's revenues still grow because of, one, it's because of a silicon content increase.

但是台積電的收入仍然增長，原因之一是矽含量的增加。

Second one is because we gain the market share through our customer.

第二個是因為我們通過客戶獲得了市場份額。

So we still forecast the whole year, the smartphone will increase in revenue.

所以我們仍然預測全年，智能手機的收入都會增加。

Especially, the second half would be much stronger than the first half.

尤其是下半場，會比上半場強很多。

Did that answer the question?

這回答了這個問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

Next question is from Yubao Hua from Tianfeng Securities.

下一個問題來自天風證券的華玉寶。

Hello?

你好？

can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes we can.

我們可以。

Hello?

你好？

We can hear you.

我們可以聽到你的聲音。

Okay.

好的。

Can I speak Chinese, please?

請問我會說中文嗎？

Yes, you can speak Chinese.

是的，你會說中文。

Okay.

好的。

(foreign language)

（外語）

Let me translate to English first.

讓我先翻譯成英文。

Yubao had observed our June revenue, which is a strong growth, and he wants us to comment on the second half business outlook.

Yubao 觀察到我們 6 月份的收入增長強勁，他希望我們對下半年的業務前景發表評論。

(foreign language)

（外語）

Lora, can you speak in English too, for the record?

勞拉，你也能說英語嗎？

All right.

好的。

I just gave the guidance for the third quarter, where our revenue in third quarter will be USD 9.1 billion to USD 9.2 billion.

我剛剛給出了第三季度的指導，我們第三季度的收入將在 91 億美元到 92 億美元之間。

That is 18% sequential growth.

那是18%的連續增長。

As to the fourth quarter, we have said we believe our fourth quarter revenue will be higher than third quarter although there are still some uncertainties.

至於第四季度，我們已經表示我們相信第四季度的收入將高於第三季度，儘管仍有一些不確定性。

We did not provide a clear guidance on the fourth quarter yet.

我們尚未就第四季度提供明確的指引。

Okay.

好的。

(foreign language)

（外語）

(foreign language)

（外語）

(foreign language)

（外語）

Okay.

好的。

So your first question is -- he likes to know the breakdown among our smartphones, HPC and IoT among our growth platforms, the revenue breakdown.

所以你的第一個問題是——他喜歡了解我們的智能手機、HPC 和物聯網在我們的增長平台中的細分，以及收入細分。

(foreign language) I will now provide a revenue breakdown by platform for the whole year.

（外語）我現在將按平台提供全年的收入明細。

But I have just said, our smartphone will grow single digit.

但我剛才說過，我們的智能手機將增長個位數。

It still accounts for the biggest part of our revenue for the whole year followed by HPC.

它仍然占我們全年收入的最大部分，其次是 HPC。

And then the rest of them are much smaller, like IoT, automotive and DCE and others.

然後其餘的要小得多，例如物聯網、汽車和 DCE 等。

We have another question from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

我們還有來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini 的另一個問題。

Just one quick follow-up.

只需快速跟進。

But before I just -- I also want to express my gratitude to Lora Ho and wish her the best of luck in her new endeavor.

但在此之前，我還想對 Lora Ho 表示感謝，並祝她在新的努力中好運。

Going back to a question that came up last earnings conference call.

回到上次財報電話會議上提出的一個問題。

It had to do with the SOI.

它與 SOI 有關。

And I just wanted to revisit the topic and better understand how you're planning for some of the challenges that 5G brings, such as a lower, I think, you said power consumption and whether SOI is going to be included in your road map.

我只是想重新討論這個話題，並更好地了解您如何規劃 5G 帶來的一些挑戰，例如您所說的更低的功耗以及 SOI 是否會包含在您的路線圖中。

Well, we did develop some of the technology for the RF circuit or RF technology using the SOI wafers.

嗯，我們確實開發了一些用於射頻電路的技術或使用 SOI 晶片的射頻技術。

But we don't do the logic technology on FD-SOI.

但是我們不做FD-SOI上的邏輯技術。

So let me make sure that everybody understands what I'm going to deliver.

所以讓我確保每個人都明白我將要提供什麼。

We don't do FD-SOI for logic -- for conventional logic technology, but we do use SOI wafer to develop RF technologies.

我們不為邏輯做 FD-SOI——傳統邏輯技術，但我們確實使用 SOI 晶圓來開發射頻技術。

For RF Front End, for example, that we are doing.

例如，對於我們正在做的 RF 前端。

Did I answer the questions?

我回答問題了嗎？

Got it.

知道了。

Yes.

是的。

All right.

好的。

Let's come back to the floor.

讓我們回到地板上。

Next question will be coming from Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的查理陳。

I have 2 follow-up questions, and if I may, I may have my industry cross-checks.

我有 2 個後續問題，如果可以，我可能會進行行業交叉檢查。

So first of all, it's about the smartphone semi content increase.

所以首先，它是關於智能手機半內容的增加。

Can you give us some color how much is that for this year?

你能給我們一些顏色，今年多少錢？

And also when 5G comes next year, because your remark was just very bullish about the 5G smartphone contribution next year.

還有明年 5G 到來的時候，因為你的評論非常看好明年 5G 智能手機的貢獻。

How would the 5G smartphone to help your semi content growth in the smartphones?

5G 智能手機將如何幫助您在智能手機中的半內容增長？

Okay.

好的。

That's a good question, but it's very hard to identify what is the percentage of the silicon content increase.

這是一個很好的問題，但很難確定矽含量增加的百分比是多少。

But let me give you some color of it, all right?

但是讓我給你一些顏色，好嗎？

The first one is -- look at your smartphone today.

第一個是 - 今天看看你的智能手機。

It's 3-camera or 2-camera or even 4-camera.

它是 3 相機或 2 相機甚至 4 相機。

Look at that.

看那個。

And look at the pixel size, right?

看看像素大小，對吧？

You might hear some of the pixel is a 48-megapixel.

您可能會聽到某些像素是 48 兆像素。

Those kind of things come with silicon with it.

這些東西都帶有矽。

So that's the silicon content, the first one.

這就是矽含量，第一個。

Actually, just some other minor things, so for example, power management IC.

實際上，只是一些其他的小東西，例如電源管理IC。

Now the power consumption is very important.

現在功耗很重要。

So now every major component inside need the power management IC to come with it.

因此，現在內部的每個主要組件都需要電源管理IC。

One is screen driver.

一是屏幕驅動程序。

You need power management.

您需要電源管理。

The application process, you need power management.

申請過程中，需要電源管理。

Just a lot of things.

只是很多東西。

And furthermore, let me give you in terms of 5G.

此外，讓我在 5G 方面給你。

You have a lot of different channels.

你有很多不同的渠道。

So now even the RF transceiver or RF Front End, the die size is bigger.

所以現在即使是射頻收發器或射頻前端，裸片尺寸也更大。

That's why I say -- that's why silicon content is increasing.

這就是我說的原因——這就是矽含量增加的原因。

Did I answer your question?

我回答你的問題了嗎？

But how many percentage, actually, I cannot identify it.

但實際上有多少百分比，我無法確定。

But how significant for those modern chip or application processor?

但是對於那些現代芯片或應用處理器來說有多大意義呢？

Because that's related to your businesses the most.

因為這與您的業務最相關。

Can you give us some percentage of increase?

你能給我們一些增加的百分比嗎？

Like 10%, 20% increase?

比如10%、20%的增長？

Definitely cannot.

絕對不能。

I cannot because we are working on it and we know all the minor details.

我不能，因為我們正在努力，我們知道所有的小細節。

So I cannot give that -- some of the information.

所以我不能給出——一些信息。

Okay.

好的。

That's fine.

沒關係。

So next question, switching gears back to the gross margin, right?

那麼下一個問題，將齒輪切換回毛利率，對嗎？

So we -- so my question is that for your leading-edge investment, do you feel like the payback period of those leading-edge investments are getting longer or shorter, right?

所以我們——所以我的問題是，對於你的前沿投資，你覺得這些前沿投資的投資回收期是變長還是變短，對嗎？

Because I still want to find out some explanation why gross margin kind of declined year-over-year.

因為我仍然想找出為什麼毛利率同比下降的一些解釋。

So it could the leading-edge investments getting heavier, or there's a true price competition from your competitors.

因此，領先的投資可能會變得越來越重，或者您的競爭對手會進行真正的價格競爭。

So I just want to get some thoughts from you on this topic.

所以我只是想從你那裡得到一些關於這個話題的想法。

Lora, can give an idea on the payback years?

Lora，能給出一個關於回報年限的想法嗎？

Okay.

好的。

I looked -- actually, personally, I don't a payback year means much.

我看了看——實際上，就個人而言，我一年的投資回報意義不大。

If you look at the various technologies -- actually, I checked this question.

如果您查看各種技術 - 實際上，我檢查了這個問題。

They look very much the same.

它們看起來非常相似。

We all know the payback year are very much the same.

我們都知道投資回收年非常相似。

However, I think the ramp profile is very different and the sensitivity of utilization to margin is different.

但是，我認為斜坡曲線非常不同，利用率對利潤的敏感性也不同。

The more leading-edge is more sensitive to margin.

前沿越多，對保證金越敏感。

So leading edge needs to have very high utilization to secure the margin.

所以前沿需要有非常高的利用率來保證利潤。

That's the key, and we are working on it, okay?

這是關鍵，我們正在努力，好嗎？

Okay.

好的。

And to -- since I wanted to cross-check, if I may.

並且——因為我想交叉檢查，如果可以的話。

First of all, you mentioned that you're pulling some 5-nanometer CapEx to this year, right?

首先，您提到您將在今年拉動一些 5 納米的資本支出，對嗎？

So next year, do you think the CapEx level would be at the range of your kind of annual guidance?

那麼明年，您認為資本支出水平會在您的年度指導範圍內嗎？

And secondly, about the raw wafer price, do you think you can get a good bargain on the raw wafer price for next year?

其次，關於原矽片價格，您認為明年的原矽片價格可以討價還價嗎？

I think next year's CapEx will have to depend on a lot of things: depend on overall market conditions, the customers' requirements and so forth.

我認為明年的資本支出將不得不取決於很多事情：取決於整體市場狀況、客戶要求等等。

So it's probably too early to say whether it's going back to this old range or target.

因此，現在說它是否會回到這個舊範圍或目標可能還為時過早。

As we get more clear, we will communicate with you, okay?

隨著我們變得更加清楚，我們將與您溝通，好嗎？

The raw wafer price, I think we have done a good job to lock in the price, and that is also a continued effort.

原矽片價格，我覺得我們已經做好了價格的鎖定，這也是一個持續的努力。

I think to make sure you understand, Lora just mentioned it will exceed the top range, what we gave you today.

我想為了確保你明白，Lora 剛剛提到它會超過我們今天給你的頂級範圍。

All right.

好的。

Follow-up question will be coming from CL Securities' Sebastian Hou.

後續問題將來自 CL Securities 的 Sebastian Hou。

I have 2 follow-ups.

我有 2 次跟進。

The first one is, for the past several earnings call, I always felt like TSMC's 5-nanometer tape out activity or interest level from clients isn't as large as 7-nanometer at the same stage, if I -- well, if I'm right.

第一個是，在過去的幾次財報電話會議上，我一直覺得台積電的 5 納米流片活動或客戶的興趣水平在同一階段沒有 7 納米那麼大，如果我 - 好吧，如果我是的。

Now you mention stronger 5-nanometer demand.

現在你提到了更強的 5 納米需求。

And is it driven -- more driven by the accelerating 5G deployment or also driven by the EUV costs or EUV economy improvements?

它是由加速的 5G 部署驅動，還是由 EUV 成本或 EUV 經濟改善驅動？

It's actually driven by the 5G's accelerations.

它實際上是由 5G 的加速度驅動的。

Okay.

好的。

And internally, if I look at 5G acceleration, do you see them more from HPC or smartphone?

在內部，如果我看一下 5G 加速，您會更多地從 HPC 或智能手機中看到它們嗎？

Both actually.

實際上兩者都是。

Because our 5G infrastructure is in the HPC area.

因為我們的 5G 基礎設施在 HPC 領域。

On the smartphone, almost all the premium phone is with TSMC.

在智能手機上，幾乎所有高端手機都是台積電。

Okay.

好的。

If I understand that correctly, I think so far, in most of the infrastructure baseband, 5G baseband is still on 12- or 16-nanometers in mainstream right now.

如果我理解正確的話，我認為到目前為止，在大多數基礎設施基帶中，5G 基帶目前仍處於 12 或 16 納米的主流。

And so you see the accelerated 5-nanometer demand.

所以你會看到加速的 5 納米需求。

So basically, we will assume that the next uptick will be 7 and I also see 5?

所以基本上，我們將假設下一個上漲將是 7，我也看到 5？

Oh, I see.

我懂了。

I see.

我懂了。

You are talking about that.

你在談論那個。

Some of the networking processor will probably go into the 5-nanometer, but some of it stay in 7 and some of them -- but basically and actually, both of the base station is now going to the most leading-edge technology.

一些網絡處理器可能會進入 5 納米，但其中一些會停留在 7 納米，其中一些——但基本上和實際上，這兩個基站現在都在使用最前沿的技術。

I think it is -- of course, in terms of revenue, smartphone is bigger than the base station, okay?

我認為是——當然，就收入而言，智能手機比基站大，好嗎？

And in the 5-nanometer, the big players get into 5G smartphone very aggressively.

而在 5 納米方面，大玩家非常積極地進入 5G 智能手機。

And it doesn't take many tape-outs, just a few tape-outs.

而且它不需要很多流片，只需要一些流片。

They demand much bigger capacity than any other products.

他們需要比任何其他產品更大的容量。

Second follow-up is I'd like to hear TSMC's views on the next-generation architecture of transistor.

第二個後續，想听聽台積電對下一代晶體管架構的看法。

So how do you see the FinFET and the gate-all-around or to compare that to see the pros and cons of these 2 architectures in 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer?

那麼，您如何看待 FinFET 和環柵，或者將其進行比較以了解這兩種 5 納米和 3 納米架構的優缺點？

Because it seems that one of your competitors is -- promote GAA aggressively.

因為您的競爭對手之一似乎是——積極推廣 GAA。

Yes, we noticed that.

是的，我們注意到了。

And actually we also have evaluated all the options, right, just as what I said.

實際上，正如我所說，我們也評估了所有選項。

And we look at the pros and cons.

我們看看利弊。

And we work with our customer, and we choose the most competitive in terms of performance and cost-wise.

我們與客戶合作，我們選擇在性能和成本方面最具競爭力的產品。

So we choose the most competitive approaches.

所以我們選擇最具競爭力的方法。

So we work with our customers, actually.

因此，實際上，我們與客戶合作。

Okay.

好的。

But would it make sense to assume that -- because so far, on the, say, 16 nanometer to 10, to 7, the industry standard has been FinFET.

但是假設這一點是否有意義 - 因為到目前為止，在 16 納米到 10 到 7 納米之間，行業標準一直是 FinFET。

So customers will be easier to dual-source if they want to or if they can.

因此，如果客戶願意或可以的話，他們將更容易獲得雙源。

But going -- if going forward, if there is going to be different routes, one doing GAA, one doing FinFET, would it be -- make customers' dual sourcing more difficult?

但是，如果繼續前進，如果有不同的路線，一個做 GAA，一個做 FinFET，會不會讓客戶的雙重採購變得更加困難？

Actually, let me say that even the FinFET structure, it's very hard to switch the foundry.

其實，我要說的是，即使是 FinFET 結構，也很難切換代工廠。

It's very hard because of the design rules, the architecture, the design flow are all different.

這非常困難，因為設計規則、架構、設計流程都不同。

At the 5-nanometer geometry, TSMC still see the FinFET as the best one, although we have evaluated all other options.

在 5 納米幾何尺寸方面，台積電仍然認為 FinFET 是最好的，儘管我們已經評估了所有其他選項。

But so far, we still -- in 5-nanometer geometry, please notice that, 5-nanometer geometries, FinFET is still the most efficient one, the most competitive one.

但到目前為止，我們仍然——在 5 納米幾何結構中，請注意，5 納米幾何結構，FinFET 仍然是最有效的，最具競爭力的。

For the full node transition to the next one, 3-nanometer, we are evaluating everything.

對於到下一個 3 納米的全節點過渡，我們正在評估一切。

We talked with our customer when we define what is the approaches that we are using.

當我們定義我們正在使用的方法時，我們與客戶進行了交談。

So I think we can conclude our Q&A session now knowing that we had evaluated all available options and picked the optimal one.

所以我認為我們現在可以結束我們的問答環節，因為我們已經評估了所有可用的選項並選擇了最佳選項。

Okay.

好的。

Before we end today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 4 hours from now.

在我們結束今天的會議之前，請注意，從現在起 4 小時內將可以看到會議的重播。

Transcript will be available 24 hours from now.

成績單將在 24 小時後提供。

Both of which will be available through our website at www.tsmc.com.

兩者都可以通過我們的網站 www.tsmc.com 獲得。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

We hope you will join us again next quarter.

我們希望您能在下個季度再次加入我們。

Goodbye, and have a good day.

再見，祝你有美好的一天。